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Forgotten Realms: Spoilers and More!

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Adventures in the Forgotten Realms, Magicā€˜s 88th expansion, is scheduled to be released on July 23, 2021. Set in the world of Dungeons and Dragons, Adventures in the Forgotten Realms contains 281 cards and will continue to include randomly inserted premium versions of all the cards. Players will be able to purchase regular Draft Boosters, Theme Boosters, Set Boosters, Collector Boosters, an Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Bundle, and four Commander decks.

The Magic team worked with the Dungeons and Dragons team on every aspect of the set, which should prove to be quite an interesting crossover!Ā Check back with us frequently for the latest spoilers and my MTG Finance flavored commentary! I’ll be covering our favorite highlights from spoiler season – if you want to see the entirety of everything that has been spoiled you can check out Wizards’ updated card gallery once it has gone live on their site.

June 24th, 2021

It's officially full-on spoiler season! There's some wild stuff coming out for us, and I am (as I seem to be every set) SO EXCITED.

We were shown a super cool Dragon Knight, Nadaar, Selfless Paladin, who lets you venture into a Dungeon and gives bonuses for completed dungeons! And Shortcut Seeker also lets you have some Dungeon fun, but what is a dungeon you ask? Well, read about them here and then check these out:

I have to admit, I was super intimidated when I saw these, but after looking at them for a bit I've decided I'm super excited for this new element to the game. They're like, pick your own adventure sagas! Pulled directly from Dungeons and Dragons adventures many gamers will be familiar with. Dungeon of the Mad Mage,Lost Mine of Phandelver, and Tomb of Annihilation all look like fantastic fun and I'm excited to see how they play!

We get a bard planeswalker! Ellywick Tumblestrum looks super fun, and I am HERE for this extended art.

Cloister Gargoyle is another classic foe that many roleplayers will be familiar with, and it comes in a sweet alternate art! Speaking of alternate arts, LOOK AT THIS Evolving Wilds! When we started seeing leaks of this style of card, I was certain they were fake but apparently not! These will join the ranks of cards that don't look like traditional cards that irritate a portion of the player base, but I bet they will end up being sought after.

June 9th, 2021

Today on the official Dungeons and Dragons Twitch channel we got a peek at two rares from the upcomingĀ Forgotten RealmsĀ spoilers!

Flumph is a hilarious defender that will allow for some excellent political decisions in Commander games when you get to pick from multiple opponents when deciding who gets to draw that extra card, and Tasha's Hideous Laughter could be a sneaky way to help mill your opponents without ever having to send their cards to the graveyard.

May 20th, 2021

Today was mostly overshadowed by Modern Horizons 2 spoilers, but we still got a look at some super cool characters pulled straight from Forgotten Realms lore!

Drizzt Do'Urden is a fan-favorite character from Forgotten Realms novels, and as someone who read a TON of them as a kid I'm super excited to see him on a Magic card! Double Strike makes a lot of sense flavor-wise, and I'm stoked that he can create Guenhwyvar!

Bruenor Battlehammer is another classic character with some neat abilities!

They decided to make Lolth, Spider Queen a planeswalker! I think that's a super cool choice, and I think this is going to be a super fun planeswalker to play with.

May 6th, 2021

Today gave us just a taste of the upcoming crossover set, and I'm already pretty excited! (I know, I know, when am I not excited about new cards?)

THE BASIC LANDS HAVE FLAVOR TEXT! How cool is that?

I'm fairly new to D&D, only having been in a few campaigns in the past year or two, but it's still super exciting to see the world reflected in the cards! Vorpal Sword is super flavorful, and even though the big effect seems pretty unattainable, but I'm going to try to pull it off at some point! Tiamat also looks like a ton of flavorful fun, and I hope I get to see him summon a whole gang of dragons at some point.

Power Word Kill is a sweet, flavorful removal spell that will be great in limited, and Prosperous Innkeeper is a super fun, super flavorful little halfling!

Portable Hole is a sweet call out to a hilarious D&D thing, and also seems like it'll be a decent removal Artifact!

Finding Humanity in Modern Horizons 2

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If one alludes to an article, one needs to follow-through. In literature, the principle is known as Chekov's Gun. Last week, I created expectations for an article about my experiences testing Humans, so this week I have to actually write that article. Which is fortunate; I've tested enough that I'm able to discuss the various variations I've encountered, because I've actually tested them. And the conclusion I've reached is that Humans is in a weird place in this developing metagame.

That's not much of a revelation. It's a new metagame filled with new decks; of course a deck will be in a weird place. The whole format is weird, how could it not be? And that is true. However, what I mean is that Humans has a ton of options available, and the correct decision is entirely based on how everything else shakes out.Ā  Some options are better in a slower Modern, others fast, and many could be good in either depending on what decks are seeing play. So it is obviously impossible for me to cover everything in one article. However, I can give a general overview of post-Modern Horizons 2 Humans and provide some guidance for tuning the deck once the metagame starts to make sense.

The Key is the Core

The key to tuning any deck is remembering what the deck wants to do and the cards that make that happen. I realize that this seems obvious, but I've made the mistake of over-tuning my deck before, just like everyone else, so it bears repeating. Every deck has some core of cards that define that deck and are critical to its identity, strategy, and metagame position. Any changes made to that core are risky, though potentially rewarding, as Jund Rock learned when it adopted Death's Shadow and Lurrus of the Dream-Den. The Humans core is rather small, which makes brewing and tuning around it relatively easily. Players also seem to agree on that core, based on decklists I've seen anyway, though I don't think it's ever been outright stated anywhere. Which is odd, because it's only four cards:

  • Champion of the Parish
  • Thalia's Lieutenant
  • Meddling Mage
  • Mantis Rider

I process a lot of decklists to make the metagame updates, and when Humans make the standing, these four cards are (almost) always four-ofs. Every other card varies wildly in number and even whether it's included. These four cards areĀ always in a Humans list, and are never less than a three-of. In those rare cases, it's almost always Meddling Mage getting trimmed. The reason these are the core cards is that Humans is an aggro deck first and foremost, and uses creature-based disruption to seal games. Champion is the best beater available. Lieutenant is both another beater and a way to make the team an actual threat. Mantis is another solid body but also has haste and evasion, making it a burn spell too. Meddling Mage is the best disruptive creature at its mana cost, but it also requires a lot of format knowledge, which is why it's often cut.

This list does not include Aether Vial. Vial is a card I'd never cut from Humans or even trim maindeck, but that is not a universally held position. I've run across a number of decks that didn't run Vial. I find that mystifying, but it happens. However, even if Vial was universal, I still wouldn't place it in the same category as the core creatures. Vial facilitates the disruptive aggro plan, but is not a part of it. Vial is also doing a lot of mana fixing and smoothing, making it the keyĀ enabler for the deck, but not part of the core strategy. Semantics aside, I'd still never cut Vial from Humans.

Don't Forget Your Roots

The other key to remember with Humans is that there is a reason that 5-Color Humans has been the standard for the deck since 2017Ā (although there have been numerous other versions over the years). A not-insignificant aspect is that the prismatic mana base allows Humans to play the best humans available while any less colorful deck will have to make compromises if not sacrifices. It also means that the Humans sideboard is among the most flexible available. It's not necessarily more powerful than any other sideboard, but if there's an effect that's needed (and it's on a creature), Humans can run it.

However, the biggest reason for 5-Color's displacement of other variations is that it has the best game 1 against the field. Every Humans deck must ask itself if it has a better opening sequence than Noble Hierarch into Mantis Rider, attack for 4. In certain contexts and matchups, that is absolutely possible. For example, Esper Sentinel into Thalia is stronger against many control lists. However, in a vacuum, the answer is no: there is no more aggressive Humans opening. And remember, killing the opponent is the ultimate form of disruption. I've tested plenty of Jeskai and Esper variants recently, and while they have advantages over 5-Color, it's only in very specific instances. Thus, I'd stick with 5-Color unless something drastically changes in the metagame where said specific instances are more common.

Being Basic

Thus, the first question when dealing with Humans post-Modern Horizons 2 is whether it's even worthwhile toĀ change the deck. The template from 2017 is still quite solid, which is probably why it's the most common version I've seen so far. Humans has received a lot of Modern playable cards over the past year. I've tested and/or actually played Charming Prince, Containment Priest, General Kudro of Drannith, Drannith Magistrate, Elite Spellbinder, Luminarch Aspirant, Sanctum Prelate, Sanctifier en-Vec, and Silverquill Silencer. There's no way to integrate all those cards, so maybe don't bother. Humans has always played 1-3 flex slots, so rather than try to reinvent the wheel, just slot in the right card for the job given the expected metagame. I ran this fairly standard list to 3-1 at my last FNM, beating Amulet Titan, Grixis Death's Shadow, and a 4-Color pile, losing to Burn when I drew poorly.

Basic MH2 Humans

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Kitesail Freebooter
4 Meddling Mage
4 Phantasmal Image
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Reflector Mage
4 Mantis Rider
2 Sanctum Prelate

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Horizon Canopy
4 Unclaimed Territory
1 Island
1 Plains
1 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

2 Chalice of the Void
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Auriok Champion
2 Collector Ouphe
3 Deputy of Detention
2 Plague Engineer
2 Magus of the Moon

The deck runs as well today as it ever has, so why change everything? I was running Prelate anticipating lots of Prowess, control, and cascade. There was a lot of control present, but I didn't hit any. In fact, I only drew Prelate once against Burn where I was mana screwed. Had I cast Prelate, I probably win that game, but I couldn't and don't. The deck was still solid in the open meta, my sideboard was broad enough to cover the field, and a blistering Humans attack was still very strong. There's no compelling reason for me to change up the formula.

I did test Sanctifier en-Vec over the Grafigger's Cages. Sanctifier is much better against Prowess and Dredge, but significantly worse everywhere else. I didn't expect much Dredge, but I did expect lots of Collected Company decks, so Cage was the choice.

The Big Weakness

The biggest problem with this list is that it's so well known at this point, every competitive playerĀ should have a plan against it. Humans is just as weak to Torpor Orb, Blood Moon, and sweepers as it ever was. And as soon as your first tribal land hits the field, your opponent will be drawing on their years of experience against Humans to plan their counter. And it will work because, again, this is Humans 2017 style.

The Big Strength

That's not the end of the world, because 2017 Humans is still very strong. Plus, it's not exactly a metagame force online anymore. Any player that is basing their deck and sideboard decisions on MTGO will overlook Humans to your advantage.

Cascade Competitively

However, there are players trying to actually innovate with Humans. The first place I saw them go was incorporating Shardless Agent for basically the same reasons that Jund ran Bloodbraid Elf. And it works.

Shardless Humans, ichi-roku (Modern Challenge, 2nd Place)

Creatures

4 Shardless Agent
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Champion of the Parish
3 Kitesail Freebooter
4 Meddling Mage
3 Phantasmal Image
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Reflector Mage
4 Mantis Rider

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Horizon Canopy
4 Unclaimed Territory
1 Island
1 Plains
1 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

2 Chalice of the Void
3 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Kor Firewalker
2 Blightbeetle
3 Deputy of Detention
2 Damping Sphere

When I tested this deck, I thought it was a bit top-heavy, and ended up cutting a Reflector Mage to add back Kitesail Freebooter. The curve felt better, but Freebooter wasn't the most inspiring cascade hit. Which was something of a problem for Humans. Agent does its job very well, but all it finds are 2/2's for 2. The best hit is Lieutenant, but it's very annoying that Agent isn't on the battlefield when Lieutenant resolves. Still, the deck was still very solid and a reasonable option.

The Big Weakness

That said, I feel that a lot more work needs to be done to make Shardless Humans a real contender. A lot of the aforementioned problems are more my unreasonable expectations in comparing Agent in Humans to Bloodbraid in Jund. The former will always be weaker than the latter, and it's unreasonable to expect anything else. Shardless is being played because it's a human that can find another human and immediately cast it, netting a huge swing in card advantage and tempo.

The problem is that sometimes that doesn't happen. Hitting a Hierarch in general isn't great and Phantasmal Image on an empty board is heartbreaking, but both are manageable. The worst is hitting Aether Vial, and in fact that card is Agent's biggest stumbling block. Drawing lots of Vials is a great way to lose with Humans generally, but cascading into a card which will be effectively blank at that point in the game really hurts. The bigger problem is that Agent is only valuable when it is cast. Vialing in Agent is a huge waste, and that is frequently the only way to hit three drops in a 19-land deck. My testing indicated that Humans would be better off dropping the Vials and running extra lands and some more hits to maximize the Agent. However, that deck had its own problems.

The Big Strength

That said, it is definitely worth trying to make Agent work because Humans has forever longed for a card advantage creature in grindy matchups. Militia Bugler tried but couldn't really fill that slot, and Dark Confidant was just too fragile. Shardless has some of Bugler's problems in that it can't hit Mantis Rider, but it always hits a card right away and pays for it, which is miles better than Bugler or Confidant can manage. If the format were more Jund and control oriented, Shardless would be the way to go. The question is how to make the cascades better.

Recruiter Rebuild

The other option that players (including myself) have tried is Imperial Recruiter. Again, Humans wants card advantage creatures, and Recruiter is a tutor and a body. An amazingly anemic body that still doesn't tutor for Mantis Rider, but it does hit every other commonly played human. I ran two in my flex slots and thought they were pretty meh. Finding a Lieutenant to break through was great, and so was finding Meddling Mage right before a combo turn. However, Recruiter was such a weak threat on its own that unless I'd set up everything with Vial already, its impact was mediocre. Still, other players are finding success using Recruiter in a toolbox fashion.

Recruiter Humans, madaa (Modern League 5-0)

Creatures

2 Esper Sentinel
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Champion of the Parish
3 Kitesail Freebooter
4 Meddling Mage
2 Phantasmal Image
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Reflector Mage
3 Imperial Recruiter
4 Mantis Rider
1 Sanctum Prelate
1 Deputy of Detention

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Cavern of Souls
3 Horizon Canopy
4 Unclaimed Territory
1 Island
1 Plains
1 Sunbaked Canyon
1 Fiery Islet

Sideboard

2 Kataki, War's Wage
2 Blightbeetle
2 Auriok Champion
2 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Deputy of Detention
2 Dismember
2 Sanctifier en-Vec
1 Sanctum Prelate

Madaa really went all-in on the toolbox with a sideboard filled with tutorable bullets. And if you want to go this route, I would advise fully committing, perhaps even more than madaa did. However, there is a problem with the deck.

The Big Weakness

Or rather it's a problem with toolboxes in general. If you fill the maindeck with bullets but aren't in the right matchup for that bullet, you're drawing a blank. Plus, toolbox decks necessarily lean heavily on said their tutors. This deck is playing fewer disruptive creatures than the other decks with the expectation that Recruiter will make up the difference. And that is a huge weight to place on a three-of 3-drop. In my testing, Recruiter struggled to carry that load, which consequently meant the deck really struggled and felt clunky.

The Big Strength

The same strength that every toolbox deck has: when it works, itĀ really works. For all Recruiter's struggles in game 1's, it shone in sideboard games. Casting Recruiter on turn three and Vialing in the right piece of sideboard hate is utterly devastating in many matchups. To the point that I feel like the Recruiter deck wants to maximize that aspect. This means a full set of maindeck Recruiters and possibly another land to make casting Recruiter easier. This might mean trimming the other three drops more.

Humanity Prevails

The thing with Humans is that it is always a strong deck and infinitely adaptable. I'm sure that more and wilder lists will make waves before too long. As for me, I'm going to stick with what I know and the standard Humans list because I don't think I need to fix what isn't broken. And also because my attempts to go a bit wild haven't worked out well, but that's a topic for next week!

Commander Legends Speculation Revisited

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I want to preface this article by emphasizing that I think there is more risk than I typically find acceptable in my normal speculation. However, I also know that there are plenty of less risk-averse speculators who are more willing to gamble with their money than myself. After all, I am the type who when they go to Las Vegas for a MagicFestĀ prefers to watch the people playing $10 blackjack hands and only plays the $1 hands.

The basis for this opportunity is the fact that WotC's printers seem to be very backed up at this time. With the new slate of products already in the pipeline, it already seems unlikely that some recent products will get additional print runs, even if WotC originally intended to produce them. Commander Legends is the big one that comes to mind currently.

While we have been told that it isn't a limited print run, the backlog at the printers may actually turn it into one. If this holds true, then there are definitely some Commander all-stars from the set which should continue to go up in value as long as they remain scarce. Looking at TCGplayer, there are plenty of boxes of Commander Legends available, though I'm not seeing any packs or boxes on shelves at any of my local game stores.

My favorites are:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Triumphant Reckoning

I am a huge fan of this card as a speculation target. Looking at this cycle of big mana mythic sorceries from CLG, Triumphant Reckoning comes off as the one most likely to outright win the game should it resolve. It has similar predecessors in Replenish and Open the Vaults, however, though both of those cards also returned an opponent's cards, which depending on opposing decks could make casting them a poor decision. Triumphant Reckoning on the other hand only returns from your graveyard, and even tacks on planeswalkers, which is a nice addition. Honestly, it blows my mind that I was able to buy a fair number of copies at near bulk mythic prices, around $0.6-$0.7 per copy.

I have previously written aboutĀ my belief that people underestimate the rarity of the extended art cards from recent sets. The actual extended art, not the borderless, cards are only available in collector boosters and only in 1 (if rare or mythic) or 3 slots per pack if they are uncommon or common. Given that info, while I have picked up the regular versions, I am an even bigger fan of the extended art versions and foil extended art. Caveat: with any modern-day foils from WotC, the fear of "pringling" may be enough to keep some people away from these, though they do look gorgeous.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Port Razer

I honestly feel bad recommending this card yet again, just as I've already recommended Triumphant Reckoning, however, my previous points still remain valid and this card seems very under-appreciated at the moment. This card simply needs something like a Bedlam in play to allow an aggressive deck to go ham on the entire table. Many players may not remember the days when Hellkite Charger was a Commander staple and Port Razer gives you multiple combats without having to sink mana into it, though admittedly Port Razer can't go infinite without some additional help.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Keeper of the Accord

While this card can't be purchased online for anywhere near bulk pricing, cards that trigger multiple times per turn cycle are always something to keep an eye on. The second ability is the one that most people likely focus on as white typically has few ways to really ramp, so this type of card is crucial for white decks that don't include green. It's important to note that the extended art version of this card is already double the regular price and the foils are double that.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horizon Stone

I honestly think this is one of the cards in the set that has flown mostly under the radar. Omnath, Locus of Mana was a powerful commander once upon a time thanks to providing the player with a unique way to ramp on future turns. Horizon Stone allows any color combination to use this type of ramp. The catch is that the mana becomes colorless. This is another one of those cards I like as an extended art or extended art foil thanks to the low buy-in price and limited quantity in existence.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rakshasa Debaser

Admittedly, I haven't gotten a chance to really break this card yet, though it feels like it is the type of card that is either very good or very bad in many situations. Perhaps it is the optimist in me, but given how many Commander decks play out of the graveyard, this seems like a card I am likely to slot into most decks that play black simply for the amazing utility.

Conclusion

I'm a fan of all the cards on this list, enough that I've purchased multiple copies of all save Keeper of the Accord and that's only because it's the most expensive card on this list. I'll be the first to admit that I have been rather bearing on any and all MTG speculation the past year or two thanks in large part to the fact that my game stores have either been shut down or more recently have limited seating capacity which keeps players from playing in person.

Without that, I see no reason why there would be a strong desire to purchase actual cardboard when you can't play with it, however, as vaccination numbers continue to rise and game stores begin to open up, I wouldn't be surprised to see all the pent up demand push Commander staples upward.

A Look at Set-Themed Commander Decks

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My four-year-old daughter knows I like ā€œMagic cardsā€ and that’s about the extent of her involvement in the hobby. So when my birthday came and went this past weekend, it’s no surprise that she insisted on picking out some cards for me as a gift.

As I opened the box, I was met with a Kaldheim Commander deck: Elven Empire.

I’ve seen these Commander decks in my local store before, themed around a given set. But I really didn’t know much about them until I received this gift. I know that they’re less expensive than the annual Commander decks, and they probably have a narrower card pool since they are themed around a set. But other than that, my experience with sealed Commander decks never involved such a product.

A Brief (Personal) History

I remember when Wizards of the Coast started producing preconstructed Commander decks back in 2011. Back then Commander was still a newer concept, but the products were a major hit and WOTC has continued to produce different Commander products annually ever since. But from day one I never looked at these products as a way to build/play Commander out of the box.

Instead, my personal experience with Commander back in 2011 revolved around one card: Scavenging Ooze.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

You see, each of the 2011 Commander decks had an MSRP of $29.95. Because of its power in Legacy, Scavenging Ooze’s price upon release was north of $30. If you could find these decks at your local Walmart, Target, etc. at MSRP, you could crack them open, sell the Scavenging Ooze and a couple other cards, and have yourself a nice profit and a bunch of ā€œfreeā€ leftovers.

The result: you could find lots of the other decks at your big-box retailers, but finding Counterpunch (the deck with Scavenging Ooze became very difficult. People would drive around from store to store buying any copies of Counterpunch they could, leaving the rest behind to rot on shelves.

As an aside, the same problem occurred in 2012 when Wizards released their cycle of Planechase decks. One deck in particular, Chaos Reigns, contained two copies of Shardless Agent—these could be sold, along with a couple other cards, to cover the cost of the entire deck. The same issue occurred then with deck availability as well. More recently, it seems Wizards has tried to do a better job of splitting power across decks equally so there is less of an availability issue.

I have not known any of the new set-themed Commander decks to experience such an imbalance; when I browse my local Meijer, I have seen a full representation of decks.

Does that mean there’s nothing particularly exciting in them? Is WotC simply printing more sets to meet demand? What’s the value of these set-themed Commander decks?

Examining Set-Themed Commander Deck Prices

When I browse Kaldheim Commander singles on Card Kingdom and sort by price, highest to lowest, I am surprised to see an uncommon in the number one and two slot: Sol Ring ($2.49) and Swiftfoot Boots ($2.29), respectively. With all the rares in the set and some unique cards (including the generals), I can’t believe none of them are more desirable than these ubiquitous artifacts. In fact, the commander I received as a gift, Lathril, Blade of the Elves, retails for just $1.99.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lathril, Blade of the Elves

This begs the question: are these absolutely horrible to purchase? Can their value be so abysmal that the decks make for poor financial decisions?

First of all, there is some value to buying a playable Commander deck in a single purchase, right out-of-the-box. While the cards are mostly newer and there are surely opportunities to fine-tune the list, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these decks were functional enough to survive in a kitchen-table game of Commander. I won’t discount this fact. Add in the fact that the decks are relatively inexpensive ($25 for Elven Empire and $16 for Phantom Premonition on TCGplayer) is another positive. These are cheap ways to get a playable Commander deck!

But I am wondering if there’s long-term potential for some of these unique Commander cards. Sol Ring and Swiftfoot Boots will always be in demand and carry a little value, but are there other singles that could be worth more over the long haul, especially if they dodge reprint?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Swiftfoot Boots

It’s hard to say with certainty since these set-themed Commander decks are a recent phenomenon. They started with Zendikar Rising, and those two decks can be purchased for $32 total, so they haven’t shown any appreciation just yet. None of the individual singles really stand out, either. So clearly the timeline for any sort of potential financial gain is longer than a year.

The Case for Elven Empire

Bear with me here—I am admittedly biased because I received the Elven Empire deck as my gift. But I think my daughter made the right choice; among the two Kaldheim Commander decks and two Zendikar Rising Commander decks, Elven Empire has the highest sealed price on the secondary market. Even though the most valuable card in the deck is still just Sol Ring, I think this deck in particular has the most upside potential.

Why? The answer is simple: Elves! Elves are a popular tribe, and as I leaf through the cards in this deck I’m seeing some pretty solid Elf cards. The commander, Lathril, Blade of the Elves, surely has some upside potential as a Commander. Beyond her, there are numerous cards themed around Elves, which may have utility in all sorts of casual Elf builds: Elderfang Venom, Crown of Skemfar, Serpent's Soul-Jar, Ruthless Winnower, and Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen to name a few.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen

Then there are the elf-themed reprints that previously were worth some decent coin. Rhys the Exiled comes to mind, a rare from Morningtide that spiked to over $15 as recently as this year! Imperious Perfect is another powerful Elf reprint—before all its reprints, this uncommon from Lorwyn used to be worth over $5. Let’s not forget about Elvish Archdruid and Wood Elves, which have always been worth a buck or two.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rhys the Exiled
There was an error retrieving a chart for Imperious Perfect

The fact that this Elf-themed deck contains so many solid Elf reprints, new Elf cards, and a new Elf commander explains why this deck in particular sells for more than the other set-themed Commander decks. Out of the few decks that fall in this category, Elven Empire has the most upside potential so far. I wouldn’t advocate going out and buying up 100’s of these decks, of course. But if you have any interest in Elves as a tribe, this is a nice product to get you started. For this reason, I see some upside potential.

Wrapping It Up

Of course my four-year-old did not have an eye towards Magic finance when she picked out this particular product for my birthday. She just liked the girl on the box! But by a twist of fate, I believe she picked out the most interesting set-themed Commander deck with the most financial potential.

Granted, I try not to sell my birthday gifts on principle—I’ve already opened the box and I look forward to shuffling up the cards and playing with the deck. It’s probably going to be more powerful than the Commander decks I made myself, which tend to be casual in nature and filled with cards I find silly and entertaining. But since MTG finance is in my blood, I couldn’t help but do some research on the product and learn more about it.

The result of my research is summarized in this article. If you’re unfamiliar with these set-themed Commander decks and were curious about them (as I was), hopefully this article sheds some light on what they’re about. I doubt we’ll see Wizards but a Scavenging Ooze or Shardless Agent type card in these sets, so they won’t lead to immediate profit. But the Elf-themed deck, in particular, may offer some possible long-term growth given the popularity of the tribe. It’ll be interesting to see how this deck (and the others) perform on the secondary market given enough time.

It wouldn’t surprise me if a few years from now, some of these Elf cards eclipse Sol Ring and become some of the more expensive cards in the set. And sealed decks, in particular, could appreciate nicely over time (though keep in mind shipping costs on these could really eat into profits). Now that I own the deck, I’ll probably keep an eye on prices to see if the trend plays out.

Buying Into Modern

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With all the hype from Modern Horizons 2 spoilers, you’re excited to dive into the Modern format for the first time. So where do you begin? Understanding what makes Modern tick as a format, apart from the obvious of what cards are legal, is the best place to start.

Modern has been a hugely popular format since its introduction. The large non-rotating card pool allows a diversity of competitive decks suitable to a variety of play styles, and the format is typically more stable and less prone to shake-ups with the release of each new Standard set. The small card pool and frequent fluctuations of Standard – both through frequent additions and yearly subtractions to the format via set rotation – limit deck choices to only a handful of competitive decks and reduce opportunities for long-term investment in the format.

With upwards of twenty-plus viable competitive decks to choose from, Modern does not suffer from these limits. The format’s metagame diversity, coupled with relative stability means it is possible to invest in a deck that suits my playstyle and have confidence that it will remain viable long-term with only slight changes or adaptations needed as new sets are released or as the metagame shifts. So where does this leave a new player looking to get into Modern?

Know The Decks In The Format

To determine what we want to play, it helps to understand the viable decks in the format. While this will evolve over time, looking at the top decks can point us in the right direction. These are the top ten decks in the format according to MTGGoldfish as of this writing:

Modern Metagame

Only looking at results over the last week or so since Modern Horizons 2 debuted on Magic: the Gathering Online, we can see the impact the set is having on Modern. Cards like Urza's Saga, Shardless Agent, Counterspell and new tier-one removal spell Prismatic Ending are all making their presence felt.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prismatic Ending

The biggest takeaway when looking at the top ten decks in the format is that being proactive wins games. While Temur Cascade and Mill both have some reactive elements, Esper Control is the only dedicated control deck cracking the top ten.

Choosing A Proactive Deck

If you’re new to Modern, a proactive deck is a great place to start. It gives you a focused game plan to execute, regardless of what other deck you might be up against. There’s a learning curve to piloting any deck well and learning to pilot a proactive deck not only gives you a leg into the format, but also positions you to see how other decks play against yours, and how they execute their game plans. Of the proactive decks in our top ten, my favorite is Blitz.

Blitz has a proactive game-plan of getting your opponent dead as quickly as possible, often as soon as turn four on the play. It also includes two – four Scalding Tarns, which thanks to the reprint in MH2 are down in price, making release weekend or shortly after release a great time to invest in these, and all the enemy-colored fetch lands. Coupled with the relatively low overall buy-in of Blitz compared to the other top decks in the format, it’s a great first deck to buy into for Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

Long-Term Prospects for Blitz

I anticipate Blitz remaining a top contender in the format moving forward. While most of the goodies in Modern Horizons 2 feel tailored to boost existing archetypes and to attempt to add more viable archetypes into the mix, I don’t see anything in the set that renders the deck unviable. While it remains to be seen if cards like Flame Rift, Harmonic Prodigy, or Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer will slot into the deck, they are all cards I’ll have on my radar to pick up cheaply if the list is modified to include them.

Pick A Deck That Suits Your Playstyle

What if aggressive decks like Blitz are not your playstyle? Perhaps you want to play control or combo? I would say do so. Part of the fun of Modern is being able to play the kind of deck you enjoy. As a control player at heart, I’m stoked to be sleeving up a set of Counterspells for use in Modern for the first time, and trying to figure out which art I want to use.

Counterspell

The buy-in for Esper Control, just as one example, is more than double that of Blitz, making price a real consideration for many players. I started with Modern when it first became a constructed format years ago, and the first Modern deck I built was Burn for just that reason. Over time I was able to acquire the pieces I needed for Control through a combination of drafting, buying, and savvy trading. It was a long road to playing my preferred deck type, but it allowed me to have a deck to play in Modern and be competitive while working towards my ideal deck choice. If you are going to buy into a control deck as your way into Modern, be cautioned that the learning curve I described with proactive decks may be harsher, as you will be forced not only to quickly learn the decks in the metagame but also how to react to each of those decks to have hope of victory.

Playing Combo for The Win

There are several combo decks to consider in Modern. Amulet Titan is the one on most people's radar, but the deck I’d personally choose if buying into Modern is either Ad Nauseam or Gifts Storm. Ad Nauseam is comparably priced to Blitz, with its second-most expensive card being Thoughtseize, a format staple which pretty much every deck with black mana will run some number.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

Gifts Storm, taking its name from the powerful tutor Gifts Ungiven and the notorious storm mechanic, is one of the cheapest decks in the format in which to invest, with most lists not running a single fetch land unless they have a sideboard strategy involving Blood Moon. Both decks can be difficult for an unprepared opponent to interact with, making them powerful and cost-effective ways to get into Modern.

Exploring the Horizons of Modern

With dozens of decks in the format, and more sure to pop up thanks to Modern Horizons 2, the options presented here are just a small sampling of the possibilities that await you in Modern. For deeper dives into the format, check out the podcast Turn One Thoughtseize. Ahren Gauthier and Ari Lax do a great job analyzing not only the top decks but also plumbing the depths of the format for new ideas and forgotten gems.

What cards from Modern Horizons 2 have you excited to play Modern? What deck did I miss that you think a player getting into the format should invest in? Share your answers in the comments.

Modern Horizons 2 and Summer Regressions

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While Summer Solstice isn’t until June 20th, 2021, it sure feels like summer is in full swing. The heat is rearing its ugly head, my allergies are in full force, and in my neck of the woods, the largest brood of Cicadas numbering up to 1.4 million per acre are out and about. I also went on the obligatory ā€œsummer family vacationā€ and we haven’t even hit the middle of the month yet.

In the world of Magic finance, the summer is a time of consolidation—prices drift lower as people find alternate activities out-of-doors for entertainment. This is magnified this year by the re-opening of the world as we (hopefully) look at the pandemic in the rearview mirror and start to look ahead to a semblance of normalcy.

I have already seen some signs of weakness, but it isn’t widespread. This week I’ll highlight some areas of interest, including a two-week look-back at the Modern Horizons 2 article I wrote to start.

Modern Horizons 2

Two weeks ago Modern Horizons 2 preorder prices appeared far too elevated to be realistic. I wrote a strong piece detailing the lofty values of the cards and compared them to the first Modern Horizons (which remains a better investment for now, by the way). Since that article’s publishing, prices on MH2 singles have tanked very hard!

Just check out the bottom portion of MTG Stocks’ Interests Page for the biggest decliners over the past week. I zoomed out on my internet browser and I still can’t get all the MH2 decliners on one screen!

Note that these are drops in market pricing, meaning that cards have been selling at these reduced prices relative to a week ago. It was inevitable to see Inevitable Betrayal and most the other MH2 card prices to tank, but even I could not have predicted an 80% decline in a week!

Dozens of rares, mythic rares, and others have seen their prices slashed by over 50%. Only one Modern Horizons 2 card shows up in the weekly gainers section of the Interests page: Svyelun of Sea and Sky, which climbed a modest 7%. Needless to say, the set’s EV has been tanking as prices equilibrate and find a more balanced level.

A time will come when these will bottom, and much like the first Modern Horizons, there will be a buying opportunity. But there’s no need to rush. Not this early into the set’s release and not at the start of summer. Let these prices come to your levels and not the other way around.

Declines in Other New Cards

Modern Horizons 2 cards aren’t the only ones exhibiting signs of weakness. While not nearly as drastic, Strixhaven cards are still drifting lower as they seek out their relative bottom.

Over the past two weeks, the market price Expected Value of Strixhaven according to MTG Stocks has dropped from $1.75 to $1.62, a decrease of about 7.5%. While this seems like a small number, consider that a) this was over the course of just two weeks and b) this reflects the entire set. If you ask me, this kind of 2 week move is meaningful.

Ikoria has been out a good bit longer than Strixhaven, so perhaps this is a better set to consider when looking for seasonal effects. After all, Strixhaven is still relatively recent, so we could still be burning off some preorder hype prices even now. With Ikoria, we are sufficiently passed release so trends will be more organic.

You can see that the set’s expected value had bottomed and was on the rise, but I note an inflection point throughout the month of May. The set’s value had been steadily climbing until April. From April through today, however, the expected value of Ikoria has declined a hair: from a peak of $3.38 to about $3.11, an 8% decline. It’s subtle on the chart above, but it is visible.

By no means is this a Chicken Little cry, stating that Magic is ruined and the sky is falling. This is normal for this time of year, and I’m highlighting the trend for awareness and as a way of supporting the notion that things are somewhat normal in the world if Magic finance.

Older Cards

It’s harder to track older cards because their prices move in disjointed steps rather than subtle curves. A card will hold a constant price on MTG Stocks for days and then suddenly move by 30% when a single copy sells at a ā€œnew priceā€. Expected Value calculations also don’t carry much meaning when you’re talking about a set like Arabian Nights or Legends.

Therefore, my data source is going to be more anecdotal in nature as a result. First and foremost, there are Card Kingdom’s buy prices, which have declined off their highs lately. As recently as a couple weeks ago, most of the Revised Dual Lands were showing up on Card Kingdom’s hotlist with reasonable, though not-quite-at-their-peak buy prices. Now all duals are off the hotlist, with many offers significantly off their highs.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

The same trend has occurred with cards from the Four Horsemen sets with few exceptions (more on those later). I remember when Card Kingdom offered over $2,200 for a near mint Library of Alexandria. Then the offer dropped to something like $1,980, then $1,800, and now it’s at $1,680. They used to pay over $400 for near mint Erhnam Djinns and now their buy price is $340. For Moat they were paying around $1,140 as recently as a week or two ago and now they offer $940.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Moat

The list goes on and on. This isn’t a danger sign or any indication that Magic is suddenly unhealthy. This is a natural price regression after the aggressive buying we had been seeing over the past year. It’s not only healthy, but a positive sign of normalcy in seeing prices soften over the summer, as they usually do. I’m not viewing this weakness as a warning; instead, I see it as an ā€œall clearā€.

The normalcy is reflected in a return of supply to the market, another indicator that prices are softening. Card Kingdom has restocked much of the Four Horsemen sets after being out of stock for what felt like months.

I’m also noticing that ABUGames is once again listing cards from Alpha, Beta, and Arabian Nights on eBay, and auctions are ending without bids yet again. This became the norm months ago, but then it seemed like they ran out of cards to sell. Anything they listed received multiple bids the first time around. Now we’re back to the Dutch Auction style they typically implement—they list a bunch of older cards with high starting bids, no one bids, so they re-list again with a slightly lower starting bid. Rinse, repeat.

Staying Positive

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, there was a great deal of uncertainty around what would happen to various markets. Would there still be demand for Magic cards in a world where there were no in-person events? How would Wizards maintain a cycle of new releases without the hype of prereleases? What would happen to Modern staples with no Modern tournaments taking place?

These doubts were in the back of my mind, especially when it was yet unclear what kind of reach the pandemic would have into our lives. But my concerns quickly shifted from card demand being too soft to card demand being too strong! Prices, especially on the older stuff that I follow most closely, were going through the roof and there was no supply to replenish the market.

I watched closely as Card Kingdom upped their buy prices again and again to new highs; other vendors, such as Star City Games and ABUGames also moved their buy prices up in step. In some cases, Star City Games leapfrogged over Card Kingdom, paying even more aggressively on certain singles. I was left wondering if the madness would ever end!

There was an error retrieving a chart for City in a Bottle

Well, it appears the madness will indeed end, and that end is happening now. Don’t get me wrong—prices are going to settle much higher than they were two years ago. But they aren’t near the astronomical peaks they once saw. Such explosive growth is unsustainable, and we were destined to overshoot to the upside. Now that we have, it’s natural to see prices retreat back toward a more sensible level.

What helps me feel especially optimistic, despite the fact that my Magic portfolio’s value has been on the decline these last couple months, is seeing the pocket of strength that lingers in the market. On the whole, prices aren’t cratering; I suspect we’ll see some softness for a couple months at least, but at least they aren’t retreating in a threateningly fast manner.

And on an individual basis, some cards are still training near their highs, perhaps reflecting a true shift in demand for the cards. For example, Card Kingdom is still paying $325—near highs—for Rasputin Dreamweaver. Also from Legends, Dakkon Blackblade and Acid Rain continue to trend favorably on buylists.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Acid Rain

From Antiquities, Candelabra of Tawnos has held up reasonably well and Argivian Archaeologist is still at (or at least near) its all-time high buy price of $180. The Dark buy prices have weakened somewhat, but isn’t that a good thing? The cards from that set are nowhere near as powerful or rare as those from Arabian Nights and Legends.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Argivian Archaeologist

I view these pockets of strength as reassuring—a reflection that prices are correcting as needed, but also the market’s acknowledgment that some cards should be trading at higher prices due to their utility, collectability, and rarity.

Wrapping It Up

I took a rare week off last week from writing to enjoy my family’s summer vacation. Despite experiencing the lingering effects of COVID-19, I must say the experience of ā€œgetting awayā€ helped life feel more normal than it has any other time these past 15 months.

As I review the current state of Magic’s secondary market, I’m seeing equivalent signs of normal activity. Just like we saw with the Reserved List buyouts from a couple years ago, we’re seeing a gradual, deliberate retrace in prices after things became far too lofty.

When we saw the pullback a couple years ago, it led to a lengthy period of consolidation. Prices stabilized and then didn’t do a whole lot for a while. This was a resting period before the market could heat up again, and prices could climb to the next level. Now we’re seeing history repeat itself, and it gives me confidence that the same trend will again take place: prices will calm down, stabilize and move sideways or slightly lower for the rest of 2021 (and possibly most of 2022) before once again catching a bid.

If that happens, I remain as confident as ever that holding my collection through the coming summer slow-down is a perfectly fine strategy. I may not be using my cards as much as I try to enjoy the warmer weather and the time off with family, but I’m confident interest in Magic will be rekindled once again and prices will react accordingly. History will repeat itself again as it has done multiple times in the past.

Improving Aether Vial: MH2 Testing

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As the paper release date for Modern Horizons 2 approaches, brewing and testing new decks is kicking into high gear. Players are eager to display their creations and figure out what Modern actually looks like after a year with paper play and numerous new sets. The online metagame is as always suggestive, but provably inbred and likes to chase its own tail; that which is currently happening there doesn't necessarily mean anything for everyone else. In other words, I would expect there to be plenty of jank turning up at FNM very soon.

Meanwhile, I have a specialty: Aether Vial. It's what I like to do; it's what I'm best at. And so I build with and play it in every format possible. My focus since MH2 was fully spoiled has been working on Vial decks. So today I'm going to share my results for two of my bread-and-butter fish decks: Merfolk and Death and Taxes. I've also been working on Humans, but that deck requires more time in the oven. There are a ton of new options and opportunities for Humans to move in different directions, only a few of which I've tested. And even then, which one I'd recommend will depend on how the metagame develops. This is also true for Mefolk and DnT, but I've tested those options and can actually make recommendations. It's time to stop rambling and actually do that!

Exploring the Seas

Naturally, I started with Merfolk. It's my oldest deck and it was being boosted, so why wouldn't I? I also expected it to be relatively straightforward testing. I got started right after Rishadan Dockhand was spoiled, and given Wizards's recent history, I didn't think that I'd get any other cards to test. I can admit when I'm wrong. Shortly after my article went up, Tide Shaper and Svyelun of Sea and Sky were also spoiled, leading to doing a lot more testing than I expected.

Dockhand ended up being exactly as I had anticipated. The body, islandwalk, and cost are exactly what Merfolk has been looking for in a one-drop. However, Merfolk cannot afford to spend mana denying opposing mana turn after turn. The fish simply aren't that impressive except in numbers, and failing to deploy threats every turn is deadly in most matchups. And I was fine with just playing Dockhand as a 1/2 for 1.

An Unexpected Windfall

However, Tide Shaper means that I don't have to settle. Shaper is actually the answer to a problem Merfolk's long had, but I never expected would be answered. The problem is that Spreading Seas is necessary, but undesirable. It's very good mana disruption, and more importantly it turns on islandwalk, which is critical against any creature deck. However, Seas doesn't swing, and unless played late is just a huge tempo hole. I usually cut it against any aggro deck as a result. Shaper is just a 1/1 for one, and Merfolk of the Pearl Trident is not playable. However, the option to kick Shaper into a 2/2 Spreading Seas makes that humble creature extremely playable. As such, I've decided against running Dockhand in Merfolk and instead have fitted Shaper as the new one-drop.

Svyelun has proven to be difficult. Her stats are above average and Curiosity is a powerful effect. However, giving other Merfolk ward and them in turn making Svyelun indestructible has proven inconsistent. It's hard to keep other creatures in play and she comes down late enough that several creatures would have died to removal by that point. If that doesn't happen, it's probably a matchup where removal and card advantage don't matter too much. In aggro matchups she's mostly a big body to block with, and can be a liability by clogging up your hand. In the more midrange matchups, she's the best Merfolk for a topdeck contest. So she's absolutely playable, but not in every situation or matchup.

For Swift Water

Which led me to testing a number of different configurations based on what kind of metagame might be coming. For a meta where Prowess continues to dominate, I prefer to go as low to the ground as possible and plan on fighting over tempo. Which led me to testing this list and being very satisfied.

Aggro Meta Merfolk, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher
4 Tide Shaper
4 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Merfolk Trickster
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Unsettled Mariner

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial
2 Chalice of the Void

Instants

2 Force of Negation

Lands

4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Mutavault
2 Cavern of Souls
6 Island

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
2 Chalice of the Void
2 Blossoming Calm
3 Counterspell
2 Rest in Peace
2 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Hibernation

In a fast metagame, Harbinger of the Tides and Merfolk Trickster are critical as tempo -positive threats, so I maxed out both. Being a cheap deck means that Lurrus is available as a companion, though most of the time I've used it more as a lifegain speedbump than an actual card advantage engine. Unsettled Mariner and the maindeck Chalice of the Void are both targeting Prowess but are quite solid against the control decks I tested.

My sideboard is entirely speculative and based on some of the early MTGO results. Hibernation is a devastating card against Ponza and Amulet Titan in some circumstances, but I was initially running it because I was expecting Elves to be big with the printing of Quirion Ranger. Which (TW: shameless gloat) I was right about. Hibernation has subsequently gotten me out of jams against the Crashing Footfalls decks running around. It turns out one-sided Wraths are very powerful against decks gunning to land a bunch of 4/4s.

Flood Them Out

However, if the meta moves more towards control or combo, the tempo cards start looking pretty mediocre. In that meta, size and card advantage are critical. I won a PTQ for PT Khans of Tarkir playing Merfolk in a Jund and Jeskai control dominated metagame in 2014. I did so by designing my Merfolk deck to grind as hard as possible; rebuying Silvergill Adepts and Spreading Seas with Echoing Truth while using Kira, Great Glass-Spinner to frustrate removal and frequently sneak through the last few points of damage in the air. I was also playing the maximum number of lords because they were almost guaranteed to die and require replacements. Modern has change a lot in the intervening years, but the premise would still work in a theoretical Esper Control-leaning meta.

Slow Meta Merfolk, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Cursecatcher
4 Tide Shaper
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Svyelun of Sea and Sky

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Force of Negation

Lands

4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Mutavault
2 Cavern of Souls
6 Island

Sideboard

4 Path to Exile
4 Tidebinder Mage
4 Counterspell
3 Rest in Peace

Svylen and Merrow Reejerey replace the tempo creatures. The Chalices become Forces because I expect Esper to have a higher curve. Mariner is now Spreading Seas to maximize the cantrips I'm playing and because attacking Esper's mana is a very strong strategy. The sideboard is slanted against creatures and combo decks because the main is where I want it against control.

The Tax Man Cometh

Satisfied with my Merfolk musings, I next began working on Death and Taxes. Taxes received a surprising number of cards from MH2, starting with Sanctum Prelate. However, the most significant is Imperial Recruiter, which promises to turn Taxes into a toolbox-type deck akin to the Legacy version. Which I am absolutely here for and went there immediately.

Before we get to the lists, allow me to first state that I did test Esper Sentinel in all my Taxes lists. It did not make the cut in most of them. The problem is that, which the taxing effect is decent against a lot of decks, Taxes struggles to pump Sentinel, which means the tax remains minor as the rest of the board develops over it. More importantly, Sentinel is just a 1/1 and therefore doesn't provide enough of a clock in enough matches for the tax to be crippling. In Humans, on the other hand, Sentinel is very strong, and the difficulty of finding the best way to integrate it is one reason I'm not ready to talk about Humans today.

Classic Approach

The first thing I did once Recruiter was spoiled was take my Legacy DnT list, import it to Modern, and start adjusting numbers based on three factors: Modern's cardpool, how Modern Taxes works, and the composition swaps that come with adding red for Imperial Recruiter. This is the result.

Legacy-Style DnT, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Giver of Runes
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Leonin Arbiter
4 Stoneforge Mystic
1 Remorseful Cleric
4 Flickerwisp
2 Imperial Recruiter
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Sanctum Prelate
3 Skyclave Apparition

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Batterskull
1 Maul of the Skyclaves

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Field of Ruin
6 Plains
1 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Wear // Tear
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Winds of Abandon
2 Aven Mindcensor
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Prismatic Ending
2 Rest in Peace
1 Phyrexian Revoker

I really liked the deck. Tutoring for Magus of the Moon was relevant a surprising amount of the time, far more than the other maindeck bullets. Prelate is quite good in certain matchups, but this being Modern, she lacks the hard-lock edge she frequently offers in the more one-drop-centric Legacy. The biggest downside is that I can't chain Flickerwisps by flickering Recruiter, a line that is frequently backbreaking for opponents in Legacy with Recruiter of the Guard. It made me want to go lower to the ground with Charming Prince, but Flickerwisp is better enough outside of chaining Recruiter (hits harder and has evasion, mainly) that I didn't go that route.

I had a lot of fun testing this deck and appreciate what it's doing. I wouldn't actually take it to a tournament, however. Partially, I don't know what to expect from the metagame, and thus can't design the toolbox very well. Mostly it's because Modern isn't Legacy and tooling around with Recruiter didn't work quite as well. Legacy is a durdly format, and so taking time to play with bullets is acceptable. This deck fell behind other creature decks and struggled mightily to catch back up, and so I can't actually recommend it.

The Stoneforge Question

Could that have changed if I'd been running Kaldra Compleat? Short answer: no. Kaldra is an amazing card if it hits play turn 2. It loses to nothing in combat, has haste, and kills in four turns. However, it has two problems. The main one is cost. Kaldra costs seven to cast or equip. That might as well be infinite for anything but Tron. Kaldra's playability is almost entirely tied to untapping with Stoneforge Mystic, and in my experience that doesn't happen often unless Mystic is Vialed in on the end step. This is less true in Stoneblade decks, but for Taxes, Kaldra kept getting stuck uselessly in hand.

The second is stabilizing. Kaldra is an amazing offensive threat, but is much worse than Batterskull against aggro, and that's what I struggled against. Vigilance and lifelink are far more relevant there than first strike and +1/+1. It was also worse than the evasion granted by Maul of the Skyclaves.

I also want to address the next two decks not playing the Mystic package at all. In both decks there wasn't room, and I found that Stoneforge neither helped nor hurt the matchups they were targeting, so Mystic was cut for space. If I were playing a Yorion, Sky Nomad pile, that wouldn't be a problem. However, Yorion dilutes a deck and makes it less consistent and when testing cards for impact, that's the last thing you want.

Really Using the Screws

After noticing the power of Magus of the Moon in the Legacy-lite deck, I decided to lean into that and play a more focused land destruction deck. This also gave me an excuse to run Cleansing Wildfire alongside Leonin Arbiter for maximum stompage of control and big mana. I ran this maindeck at FNM last week, and it did in fact utterly cripple Esper Control and Tron, so the theory works. The problem is that it can't reliably beat Prowess or Wrenn and Six.

Slow Meta DnT, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Giver of Runes
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Leonin Arbiter
2 Charming Prince
4 Flickerwisp
2 Archon of Emeria
2 Magus of the Moon
3 Skyclave Apparition

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Sorceries

4 Cleansing Wildfire

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Field of Ruin
6 Plains
1 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Wear // Tear
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Winds of Abandon
2 Aven Mindcensor
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
3 Prismatic Ending
2 Rest in Peace

Adding Prismatic Ending has improved things against Wrenn, but Prowess remains a huge problem since Magus and Wildfire are pretty weak in game 1. I also found that getting Magus was important enough when I really needed it that I'm planning on switching a Flickerwisp for a third Magus. In a slow metagame, the twelve land destruction spells are crippling. Just remember to use Field to hit the nonbasics and to follow up with Quarter or Wildfire on the basics. There's a lot of promise here once I fix the aggro matchup. Which might require moving the Wildfires to the sideboard and running Bolt main.

Enforcing Fairness

It's equally possible that Modern moves in a more unfair direction. All the new suspend spells alongside Shardless Agent have got players thinking of February's madness and 4-Color Cascade is seeing play again. Living End is also seeing play, and Profane Tutor promises to enable more combo decks. Should free spells start to take over, I'd instead go for UW Lavinia taxes.

Combo Meta DnT, Test Deck

Creatures

3 Archon of Emeria
4 Esper Sentinel
4 Rishadan Dockhand
4 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
4 Leonin Arbiter
3 Flickerwisp
4 Spell Queller
3 Skyclave Apparition
2 Solitude

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

2 Force of Negation

Lands

4 Seachrome Coast
4 Hallowed Fountain
3 Ghost Quarter
4 Field of Ruin
6 Plains
2 Island

Sideboard

2 Blossoming Calm
2 Counterspell
1 Test of Talents
3 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Aven Mindcensor
3 Prismatic Ending
2 Rest in Peace

Lavinia doesn't synergize with Thalia; here, the latter was cut so Lavinia could actually counter cascaded spells. Sentinel is still very good here because I'm targeting combo decks that like to cantrip and tap out. It's also good because it digs for counterspells. Dockhand is in a similar position, where it does an excellent job slowing down combo decks and makes it harder for them to pay Sentinel's tax. The current sideboard is meant to hit the cascade decks, but can easily be tuned.

All As Expected

All this is purely speculative, as the metagame is still forming. Everyone has to wait and see how the next month is going to shake out. I'll probably be running my slower Merfolk deck for the foreseeable future, not out of any particular metagame read, but because it's what I want to be doing with Merfolk. And I advise everyone else to take this approach as well. Until the next metagame update is ready, anyway.

Judge Promos: Judge for Yourself.

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Judges are an important part of the infrastructure that keeps Magic thriving and well. With every store, event, FNM, or another tournament, there are bound to be rules issues, as Magic is a vastly complex game with cryptic and sometimes counter-intuitive rulings. You all are probably well aware of the distinct shout of "JUDGE!" in the middle of a tournament as a complex (or sometimes not all so complex) rule sparks a question. With over 230 pages in the Comprehensive Rules and many more in other documents related to judging, being a Judge takes time, effort, and dedication.

To show appreciation for the judging community, Wizards of The Coast started giving out Promo cards to Judges for judging tournaments and other events. These Judge promos were highly sought after as they tended to be very rare, and a sign of achievement.Ā  Over the years as more and more Judges are trained, and more and more players join the game, more and more Judge Promos are printed. These tended to be iconic cards, or cards that see play. The promos were also able to circumvent the Reserved List, so it is one of the few ways to get foil reserved list cards. Today we will observe, analyze, and speculate on the investability of Judge Promos long term.

Good Cards

Highly played cards are going to be the most stable, and most in-demand cards. That isn't much of a surprise, nor is it a surprise that scarce Judge foils of those cards are going to be expensive, and sought after on a higher scale. Let's take a look at some examples and see what the trends are.

Lightning Bolt

Lightning Bolt, one of Alpha's original "3 for one mana" cycles. Ignoring Ancestral Recall, it is easily the best of the cycle, and its introduction to Modern in 2009 was explosive. As it still sees play today in a variety of decks due to its incredible versatility, it's no surprise this one is near the top of the price range. It's seen stable growth across the years, with its current position well earned. I see no reason that this growth should not continue. There are currently 15 listings for this card on TCGplayer, and eBay shows a trend of around 2-5 copies sold per month. The supply seems to be low enough to sustain price, and high enough to sustain growth. With dozens of decks across most formats using this card in some form or fashion, I see no reason for anything but continued growth. It's a simply good card, and collectible as anything.

Rhystic Study

Rhystic Study is a Commander all-star. There is little to no reason why any Commander running blue should not be running Rhystic Study. The value generated by this card is overpowering, cheap, and fits well regardless of power level. A casual deck and a CEDH deck alike can run this card and benefit all the same.

You can see that it has seen consistent growth throughout its existence. You see a period of decreased interest and consolidation in the period leading up to 2020, followed by a tad bit of turmoil around prices, a period of stagnation, and as the new year rang in, a renewed interest as markets shifted. For most of its life cycle, the money was focused on other sectors. More people were looking for Wheel of Fortune's and Timetwister's than a fancy foil for their Commander deck. I see this having a decent amount of to grow, especially with in-store play opening up across the country.

2020 Judge Promos

2020 Judge promos are an interesting case.Ā  Due to being printed and distributed in a time where there weren't many events to judge in the first place, makes odd circumstances for these cards development. A number of cards started at astronomical prices and dropped to very low prices very quickly, and others have simply experienced stagnant or negative horizontal movement. Some heavier played cards like Demonic Tutor has seen some uptick, but overall very slow growth and not much interest. Personally, I believe that these are way too low, especially considering some of these are the cheapest printing, or not too far off from being the cheapest printing.

Gamble

Gamble is just barely above its non-foil, non-promo counterparts, and it has no reason to be. It's played a lot in Commander, and in CEDH as well. Only a 50% price increase doesn't make much sense to me.

Birthing Pod

Oh, the ol' pod; what an iconic card. Sadly, this one makes a bit of sense. This card has a home in many decks, but its lack of total ubiquity makes it a bit harder to have a higher sticking price. If it returns to Modern, this is easily much more, but I don't see too drastic growth at this point.

Demonic Tutor

Demonic Tutor is an insanely powerful card. It lacks the low mana requirements of Vampiric Tutor, but what it loses in cheapness, it gains in the efficiency of not requiring a draw. It ends up being perfect for a mid to late game when the extra cost of 1 generic mana tends to be less of an issue. There is an easy reason why this card showed movement when others didn't, it simply is the best card of the year's promos.

Reserved List Foils

In the days of yore, Wizards found an unbelievable loophole in the age-old agreement known as the Reserved List. If they simply printed those cards in foil, then technically it wouldn't count as a violation of the Reserved List. This culminated in many From The Vaults, and many Judge Promos that have reserved list cards, often in the only available foil printings. This combined with the explosion of Reserved List cards, and the fact that these promos are all highly-played cards, it's no surprise most of these promos are at the top of the list for the price. Among many notable are Gaea's Cradle, Wheel of Fortune, and Survival of the Fittest are all at the top of the list.

Gaea's Cradle

An incredibly powerful inclusion in most green decks, it's no surprise that as the normal Gaea's Cradle went up, that the promo would increase at an increasingly higher rate. Being that this is the only way to get a foil version of this card, and it being the centerpiece of many already expensive decks, players are willing to shell out the big bucks for this one. I don't see too much room for growth here as the market consolidates these higher-end pieces and moves towards different interests. I personally would wait a bit before looking to pick up a copy. I do believe that long term this card has not reached its peak, but now will not be that time.

Wheel of Fortune

For fans of the modern card frame, black border, foil, and spending slightly less than the next highest option, the Judge Promo of Wheel of Fortune is a great pick! Fans of anything but that rejoice, as you now saved a very large amount of money. As with Gaea's Cradle, I firmly believe we have seen the most we will get for a little while. There will be a large increase at some point, but for now, there won't be too much movement.

Survival of the Fittest

I feel that while the previous two have universal ubiquity in decks that would benefit from them, Survival of the Fittest sees ever so slightly less play. This is seemingly offset for the most part by the fact that the decks that do run Survival of the Fittest, tend to be able to sling some more cash anyways, which while true with both of the previously mentioned cards, this fact is a great preventative measure in any major downturn, but gives this card slightly more instability, however so small.

What's the Point of a Foil if People Can't See the Shine?

With stores opening doors for the first time in over a year, foils are starting to matter more and more every day. With most play happening online over webcam, where foils are harder to read, impossible to notice, or simply not worth it for most, the shift to in-person makes aesthetics matter even more. As we've seen, over the past year, some foil cards from newer sets are cheaper than the non-foil versions.

While this is in part due to a large decrease in the quality of foils, foil quality has been decreasing steadily over the past couple of years (Commander Legends being the big, heavy, and cumbersome nail in the coffin). With both increasing foil quality of some of the last few sets, and the increasing importance of foils, we likely will see general growth across the board with foils, Judge Promos simply being near the tippy top of that ladder.

Judges Judge, Why Shouldn't You?

I like to end each of my articles with a reminder. A reminder to follow your gut, be smart and make decisions for yourself. The smartest analysts in this field get specs wrong all the time, and sometimes a contrarian viewpoint ends up being the correct one. Your call may be right, it may wrong, and it might just be crazy, but it might just be absolute lunacy that leads you to salvation. Remember, be smart, be calm, and invest in cardboard. Have a great rest of your week.

 

 

The Losers from Modern Horizons 2

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All decks aren't created equal: some are Splinter Twin, others are Mono-Green Aura Stompy. The same goes for every set: some are Dominaria, othersĀ Legions. Thus, the impact of every new set will be felt unequally both by Modern as a whole and by individual decks. Not every set can have Modern-playable cards, and not every deck can get something new. When the new set is named Modern Horizons 2, the effect is far more profound. However, every writer and their hamster is currently gushing over which cards are busted and the decks that they allegedly bust. So I'm going to take a different approach and discuss the top decks that are hurt by MH2.

I should note at this point that "hurt" is a relative term. Every deck's relative power rises and falls over time. It's not fair to say that Heliod Company is harmed by MH2 just because it received no cards or because its position within the metagame worsened. The metagame raises and lowers decks all the time and power is always relative. Rather, I'm going to look at the decks that have new cards aimed directly at them. Hateful cards. Cards meant to disrupt or even completely defeat certain decks. But it's not all negative. All these decks have options for overcoming the hate and enduring, which I will also cover.

It's Over, Tron!

There's really no hiding it: MH2 was clearly designed to mark the end of Modern's Tron era. Brad "Jund Guy" Nelson worked on the set, so lots of Tron hate is hardly surprising. As always, though, there's more to it than just that.

Wizards printed three blunt-force anti-Tron cards and three more which interact favorably with Tron. And by blunt, I mean that Break the Ice, Obsidian Charmaw, and Void Mirror might as well have explicit rules text saying "use this against Tron." Void Mirror is the most obvious, as it counters any spell that was cast without any colored mana. Tron is a deck famous for casting colorless threats. You do the math. Mirror is also effective against all the suspend cards in MH2, almost as if Wizards was providing extra incentive for players to play the card. It is also quite potent against normal Tron's cousin, Eldrazi Tron, as if it wasn't obvious enough.

I Have the Hate Now

Break and Charmaw are similar in that both are intended to destroy Tron lands. Technically, Charmaw destroys any nonbasic land, which means it is likely a shoo-in for Ponza. However, the cost reduction of Charmaw is targeted at colorless lands, and again, what deck besides Tron uses lots of colorless lands? The fact that it can hit Tron turn three on the play cannot be an accident. Meanwhile, Break costs two specifically to prevent turn three Karn Liberated. Again, it specifically targets lands that make colorless mana. It also hits snow lands, but that hasn't been too relevant since Arcum's Astrolabe was banned. Though it is worth noting that snow-covered basics are not always strictly better than regular basics anymore.

Finally, there are Rishadan Dockhand, Tide Shaper, and Vindicate. Vindicate destroys any permanent, which means against Tron it will usually be Stone Rain. However, it also destroys Karn and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Vindicate isn't specifically targeting Tron, it's just very good there. The Merfolk both disrupt mana, Tron's whole deal, but aren't specifically targeted against Tron. Shaper in particular is very good since taking a turn off to Spreading Seas was often necessary but not desirable for Merfolk since Seas isn't a threat. Now they can do both! If you'd ask me, it's obvious that MH2 was meant to put some pressure on Tron.

Except It's Not Enough

Shame it's going to fail at that, then. I hate to burst any bubbles, but there is very little chance of Tron being uniquely hated out by anything in MH2. It might lose some popularity initially, but Tron will easily recover and continue to fun-police all over midrange and prison. Mainly because the dedicated hate is easier to avoid than it appears. Mirror doesn't counter colorless spells (which actually would be devastating), just spells that weren't cast with colored mana. Thus it's easily defeated so long as Tron has out a Chromatic Star or a forest. It wouldn't surprise me if Tron started running Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth for this very purpose, giving them a way to tap even their colorless lands for G and empty their hand of said Stars for multiple big-mana plays. Break the Ice is black and can be beaten with Veil of Summer. Overloading Break is a win, but at that point, Tron was unlikely to win anyway. And Charmaw is only good disruption on the play.

Ironically, it's the non-targeted hate that will be hardest for Tron. Merfolk has always had a good Tron matchup thanks to its clock and Seas, and now it has a Seas that is a clock. Dockhand is also annoying but far less effective. Vindicate is great because it is still effective once Tron has established Tron. In other words, the new cards really haven't changed the matchups very much. Which is to be expected: there's been plenty of Tron hate for years now and yet Tron keeps being Tron (remember Assassin's Trophy and Damping Sphere?). And it probably will until Wizards just outright bans the Tron lands.

All Thanks to You

However, that's not entirely the cards' fault. The answer lies in the mirror. How many players have seen all the new hate, will assume that Tron's going to be hated out and/or dropped, and will cut their Tron hate? Be honest, you've at least thought about it. That's the main reason that Tron continues to thrive in Modern: players don't respect it. The addition of new hate, especially beatable hate, won't change the reluctance of players to try and hate out Tron. Despite Break's potential to Sinkhole Tron, I doubt that it will see much play because there aren't snow decks anymore, so Break only hits Tron. Yes, it does hit any land that produces colorless mana, but lands that do that are few and far between outside Tron. The new hate won't see enough play to actually impact Tron as a result. Except for Merfolk.

Dredge Is Dead... Again

Not so unlike Tron, every time there's a shift in the metagame or a new piece of graveyard hate, Dredge is declared a dead deck. And for a while anyway, it is. MH2 perpetuates this cycle with the addition of more graveyard hate. Green got two cards that shuffle graveyards into libraries in Blessed Respite and Endurance, which do hurt Dredge to an extent. Respite also having Fog attached could also be potent against Dredge's alpha strikes, making the card quite desirable in a race against the deck.

However, the card that most screams DIE DREDGE, DIE! is Sanctifier en-Vec. The only threat in typical Dredge that Sanctifier doesn't exile is Narcomoeba. And the only answer that Dredge might run is Blast Zone. There's also Dauthi Voidwalker, which reads like a maindeckable Leyline of the Void. The only problem is finding a deck that wants to pay double black for a 3/2.

However, the bigger problem for Dredge is splash damage. Wizards wanted to make Reanimator a thing in Modern, and they might have succeeded with Persist and Priest of Fell Rites. Dredge gets by thanks to players underestimating it and skimping on graveyard hate. Which in fairness has been a decent strategy for the past few months. With Uro out of the picture, there weren't many graveyard decks to worry about, so players cut their Leyline of the Voids and Rest in Peaces. The potential of Reanimator may get players to start running hate again, and Dredge will suffer as a result.

...But Will Rise Anew

However, Dredge shouldn't suffer too much. I've been over this countless times, but the best hate against Dredge removes the entire graveyard. Picking off one or two cards just isn't effective. However, that's exactly the sort of hate that players will gravitate towards against Reanimator. Surgical Extraction is quite good against a deck all-in on one card, which is why it sees so much play in Legacy where there are several forms of Reanimator. I suspect players will take a page out of Legacy's book and run Extractions or possibly Faerie Macabre, which will marginally affect Dredge but again, it's Dredge; so long as it has a graveyard, it's dangerous.

Even if Sanctifier and general hate remain prevalent, that won't be the end for Dredge. The deck could just keep going and hope to dodge the hate. Sanctifier is a relatively narrow card, after all. There are also options to move in the Millvine direction. That deck has a far better backup plan should the graveyard be shut off and features payoffs that aren't black or red. Both Dredge and Millvine can theoretically win by casting creatures, but hate doing so. However, rather than use them for the intended purpose of self-mill, Millvine can use its crabs and Glimpse the Unthinkable against their opponents. Don't count Dredge out.

Forget About Mill

On that note, what about the dedicated Mill decks? As with Dredge, they're hurt by the green shuffle cards, in many ways more than Dredge. Shuffling back your graveyard against Mill is the equivalent of gaining 20 life against Burn. I have doubts that either shuffle effect will see much play, but Mill will definitely be hit by some splash damage. Blossoming Calm is a powerful hate card against Burn, enough that I expect it to overtake Timely Reinforcements as the sideboard card of choice. Thanks to it granting hexproof without restriction, it's less powerful but more versatile than Veil of Summer, and therefore counters Mill's Glimpses, Hedron Crab triggers, and Archive Traps. Otherwise known as their most damaging spells.

More importantly, it looks to me like MH2 is going to keep Modern at too quick a pace for Mill to be viable. Mill's been decent a few times in the past year, times which coincided with either 4-C Omnath or Heliod Company being the top decks. The former was easy prey for Mill, as it was a slow deck that drew a lot of cards, making Mill's job easier. The latter was a slower deck that usually "won" by gaining infinite life, about which Mill could care less. More importantly than individual good matchups, those periods were relatively slow periods for Modern where aggro was suppressed. It's easier to get to 0 from 20 than 53, so aggro is perfectly capable of racing Mill, and it often isn't close. Despite control getting more toys, aggro is also getting cards. And Reanimator also potentially outspeeds Mill.

At Your Peril

However, don't get complacent. When Mill gets the right draw of Crabs and Orbs, it is shockingly powerful. That just doesn't happen all that often. Additionally, it is entirely possible that the boost to control outweighs the help the various aggro decks are getting with MH2. If that's the case, then there would be a net slowdown in Modern, which is exactly what Mill is looking for. At that point, the control decks will need to be wary, because they're exactly what Mill is looking to beat. It's also worth noting that thanks to Wizards mainly printing non-targeting mill cards recently (presumably to cut down on the more dangerous self-mill), it may be built to overcome Calm should the meta demand it.

A Change in the Winds

I'd also like to note thatĀ all combo decks that don't win via Thassa's Oracle will be hit by Blossoming Calm, Storm being the hardest hit: Gifts Ungiven targets opponents, so Calm both counters the Gifts and protects against Grapeshot for a turn. If Calm is adopted as widely as I think it should be, then Storm and similar decks will have to rebuild. MH2 has provided a number of options for Storm to move into green, though I have no idea if that's ideal. Is Caleb Scherer still around? Somebody ask him.

Let the Hate Flow

Modern Horizons 2 stands to help out many decks. MH2 also stands to hurt certain decks. However, that will only be the case if players take the new hate seriously and actually play it. For this reason, I think that Tron will come through relatively unscathed. However, this is still the early stages of brewing, and we'll all just have to wait and see.

MH2 Overview, Pt. 4: Horizons Top 5, Places #2-1

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Welcome back to Modern Top 5: Modern Horizons 2 edition! Yesterday, we touched on the Incarnations (ranked from best to worst here) and dove deep on Sudden Edict, Urza's Saga, and Prismatic Ending. Now, it's time for the final chapter in our comprehensive Modern Horizons 2 spoiler overview: heaps of text on my picks for the best card in the set, and its runner-up.

Disclaimer first: "best" will always be subjective, which is part of the qualifier's appeal; if there was one right answer to this question, you wouldn't be here reading this, and I wouldn't be back here typing it up. And I doubt it's much of a coincidence that the cards ranked in this Modern Top 5 happen to be the ones I've spent the most time testing (there are many I've tried and given up on). Part of the fun of spoiler season and of a game as dense and complex as Magic is that every player is bound to have a unique opinion. So if you happen to disagree with my picks, however obvious or controversial, please bring it to the comments for some good ol' fashioned debating!

For more information on the grading metric used in this article, check out yesterday's piece, which kicked it off. Oh, you've already read it? Then all aboard, mateys!

#2: Abundant Harvest

Overall: 12/15

Power: 4

As a general rule, when cantrips increase in power, they become notoriously more difficult to extract maximum value from. Opt is pretty easy: does this card have more value to me than the average card left in my deck, or no? Serum Visions, a little tougher: are either of these two cards better than the average card left in my deck, and will I want them next turn or the turn after, and has my situation changed now that I've drawn one more card? Ponder, hard mode: are any or multiple of these three cards better than the average card left in my deck, which order do I want to draw them in, do I have a way to shuffle away the less good ones and how should I sequence that option, and do I want to try to shuffle them all away right now for a chance at the best possible draw in my deck? As for the infamous Brainstorm, well, here's AJ Sacher quoting Josh Rayden in the most comprehensive look at the instant I've seen thus far: "You're just never supposed to cast it."

That's a far cry from Abundant Harvest. A fair bit of the card's power lies in just how easy it is to navigate, a factor that ensures most players will resolve it correctly without spending energy deliberating. Harvest always asks players the same (very easy) question: would you rather this card be a land or a spell? Having 100% control over getting one or the other is so strong that I'd situate this card's impact level somewhere between that of Preordain and Ponder.

Harvest can prove tough to evaluate at first glance because it doesn't provide an impact in the same way as these blue cantrips, whose strength lies in finding specific cards in the deck. Rather, its strength lies in smoothing out the current game, making sure a good balance of lands and spells is hit, and giving players the option of dramatically shaving their land counts... or ramping them up with the goal of making Harvest closer to Demonic Tutor (more of a corner case, to be sure, but nonetheless a part of the the card's utility I wouldn't put it past Modern brewers not to take advantage of eventually). In the coming weeks, I'll be publishing some of my own experiments that demonstrate just how far Harvest allows deckbuilding extremes to be pushed.

Flexibility: 5

I'm sorry, did I break your concentration? I didn't mean to do that. Please, continue. You were saying something about... best intentions? What's the matter? Oh, you were finished! In that case, I'll ask again.

Would you rather this card be a land or a spell?

HELLO?!?!! This is so good!! You have 100% control over getting one or the other. Harvest is always the better of the two.

Splashability: 3

If Abundant Harvest is so good, why wouldn't every deck, or at least every green deck, play four? Truth be told, I don't even expect the majority of green decks to play this card. Part of that boils down to risk aversion in deckbuilding. Many players simply aren't comfortable going to the lengths Harvest demands to maximize the card. But certain will, yours truly included, and it will yield some impossible-looking (and great feeling) decks.

Another part of it comes down to format speed. Modern is blazing-fast, and decks put a high premium on curving out. Most decks have an ideal one-mana play, an ideal two-mana play, and an ideal three-mana play, even if that three-mana play is just playing another one-drop and another two-drop. To its demerit, Harvest does not slot into any high-impact curve. That means that depending on the deck, it's worse than a mana dork, or an attacker, or a removal spell, or a discard spell, or a planeswalker—the thing decks do on turn one. But decks that are content to cantrip on turn one, e.g. thresh, will eat this card up.

One archetype that doesn't have its early game curve tied up and is known to have tons of mana to throw around during the game is control. Currently, these decks are built with flooding in mind, and pack insurance like Celestial Colonnade. But I can envision a world where control decks want green, and in that world, Harvest presents an alluring alternative to running mana sinks. These control decks will seek to put the game away a bit faster than what we now see out of UW or Esper, bringing them closer to midrange, but I expect they will remain low-aggression enough to qualify. Combined with Teferi, Time Raveler's ability to grant sorceries flash, Harvest has the potential to be one scary package out of draw-go decks.

#1: Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

Overall: 14/15

Power: 5

Here's a #1 pick as obvious as I imagine Abundant Harvest in #2 will prove controversial. But I've got some controversy up my sleeve yet. Best Monkey spell? Best card in Modern Horizons 2? Best red one-drop? Forget all that.

Ragavan is the best creature ever printed.

Clickbait, you protest? Let's take a look at the competition.

  • Tarmogoyf: Not what he used to be since Fatal Push provided an elegant, tempo-positive way to remove it.
  • Lurrus of the Dream-Den: Pre-companion errata, sure. But that ain't no card and never should have been.
  • Deathrite Shaman: This one is actually close, putting aside the fact that it's banned in Modern and Legacy. It's a mana dork that's also reach that's also life gain that's also graveyard removal. In fact, my scores for Shaman and Ragavan would be the same (among Modern Top 5s, a record-breaking 14/15). But I'd nonetheless argue that between dash and its 2/1 stats, Ragavan gives players a lot more leeway re: how to use it. Deathrite won't reliably trade for a creature in aggro mirrors, for example. And it's certainly not a gameplan on its own; more an extremely powerful form of support for whatever actual gameplan. Ragavan is an entire gameplan, in the same way that Dark Confidant was once enough of a gameplan to have entire Vintage decks built around it, or Goyf in Extended with Next Level Blue. Don't believe me? Watch your opponents not kill it and see what happens.

True, Ragavan doesn't draw a card every turn. Even in the mirror, it will sometimes flip a land. But it draws a card sometimes, and by drawing once, it has already paid for itself in terms of card economy. I'll also argue that in many instances, it has already paid for itself just by generating a treasure. That extra mana means it also ramps into the opponent's payoffs; I've played one game where I was able to cast, from my opponent's library, turn two Teferi, Time Raveler (which met Force of Negation) and then turn four Jace, the Mind Sculptor (which resolved and won me the game).

These are plays so tempo-positive that not even the deck built around those planeswalkers has access to them; most colors lack ramping, so Ragavan basically breaks the color pie by providing a unique mana-collection aspect previously foreign to a lot of red strategies. Let's not forget that Simian Spirit Guide was banned just a few months ago, and that Ragavan locks in one of these bad boys every hit.

Finally, we come to the legend clause. You can't have out two Ragavans. That's fine. You run four, and if they kill your Ragavan, you cast another. And if they don't kill your Ragavan, you win.

So Ragavan is the best creature ever printed. Will it be banned in Modern? Obviously, it's far too early to tell. It's not like we lack answers to a 2/1. Hexdrinker, too, is a massively pushed aggressive one-drop that was received with all the bells and whistles but ended up being perfectly fine once the dust settled. Personally, though, I'm much higher on Ragavan than I was on the Snake: when a card rewards players for casting it this much, I can't imagine it won't find its way into way too many decks, and that's been it for Modern cards in the past.

Flexibility: 5

Aggressive Stage 1 combat creature? Check; only Wild Nacatl is bigger. Mana dork? Check; and in red, to boot, and with color fixing, that's two big ol' Pirate boots! Card advantage engine? Check, please. Ragavan is everything you could ever want in a one-drop.

Something that might have hit this card down to 4 is its limitation as an early-game attacker. But Wizards has us covered with dash. If we so desire, Ragavan has haste, letting it revenge-kill minused planeswalkers or swiftly turn the tide of a close race. Let's not forget that haste is Time Walk. Would you pay one mana for Time Walk?. Dash also grants "it's returned from the battlefield to its owner's hand at the beginning of the next end step," letting it dodge sorcery-speed removal like Prismatic Ending. Some writers who fully grasp the strength of Ragavan might be content to (jokingly, I get it, he was joking) write off dash as "Uhh…it’s good? And flavorful?" But there's no denying the high utility this mechanic adds to the card.

Splashability: 4

Decks will splash for this card. They will splash for this card like crazy. By which I mean they will be rebuilt to accommodate Ragavan alongside the best red spells that play to its bottom line (AKA Lightning Bolt). Imagine it out of control sideboards when all your Pushes are in the board. Scaaa-ry! But not every deck, or even every red deck, will want Ragavan.

  • Burn: This deck favors raw damage output over any kind of utility Ragavan provides, including the tempo boost of having free mana to throw around. It's already a sleek machine designed to exhaust its resources at exactly the same time opponents will be brought to 0. Some builds will experiment with Ragavan, but for many, Burn's core should rightfully remain unchanged. Taking this prediction a step further, the day all Burn decks start packing 4 Ragavan is the day Wizards resolves to ban it in the next announcement.
  • UR Prowess: Prepare for the splitting of camps. Some builds will run Ragavan, and others won't, and not just for cost reasons. This deck is similar to Burn in that it's fast enough that MTGGoldfish calls it "Blitz." Ragavan does not necessarily provide enough aggression to fit in with that strategy. What it does provide is a ton of value and and alternate gameplan, meaning Prowess-style decks may emerge that are more interactive along the spectrum, i.e. Delver.
  • Jund Rock: Hexdrinker was good enough for BGx players to splinter off into BG Rock, but most Jund players decided against running the 2/1, reasoning being they'd rather play to their primary midrange gameplan of disrupt-then-commit than try to out-aggress their diverse opponents. Again, we'll come to a crossroads here, with some Jund Rock players embracing Ragavan as a one-mana Dark Confidant (I'll grant that it's not too far off) while others shrug their shoulders and keep on Jundin'.

"A Whole New World"

You know, your favorite Monkey's favorite Disney song? Real talk: Jund Rock isn't going anywhere, and neither is Tron, and neither is Prowess. Modern is still Modern. But with cards this enticing entering the fold, the little things will add up fast, as they did with Wrenn and Six and Force of Negation. Playing Modern will feel very different as of June 18th. And catch me next week for a sweet deck featuring four of each of these cards!

MH2 Overview, Pt. 3: Horizons Top 5, Places #5-3

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Modern Top 5 is a long-running article series in which I use a set of pre-defined metrics to rank the best of breed in different categories. Past contests have included utility cards, hosers, enablers, beaters, and planeswalkers... come to think of it, though, most of those contests are due for an update! Today's brand-new entry pulls double-duty as a way to close out our comprehensive Modern Horizons 2 spoiler review, and goes deep on my picks for the top five best cards of the set.

Modern Horizons 2 is no ordinary set, and this is no ordinary Modern Top 5. To go as deep as possible on the picks, we'll split the article into two meaty halves, going over places #5-3 today and unveiling the two grand finalists tomorrow. But first, the metric!

Setting the Metric

Leave it to me to have already designed a perfectly usable metric for this evaluation: the original power/flexibility/splashability scale introduced four years ago, which lends itself well to general overviews like this one for a whole expansion. Here's an explanation of that, for those of you who haven't seen it in just shy of half a decade.

No Modern Top 5 would be complete without a metric. Since the top cards in a given expansion can include any type of spell—planeswalker,Ā hate,Ā beater—we’ll aim to use the most general metrics possible. I think those happen to be the ones established in the series’s first entry,Ā Modern Top 5: Utility Cards. Here they are again.

  • Power: The degree ofĀ impact theĀ card tends to haveĀ for its cost.
  • Flexibility: The card’s usefulness across diverseĀ situations and game states.
  • Splashability:Ā The ease with which Modern decks can accommodate the card.

Power and flexibilityĀ will be ratedĀ by considering bothĀ a card’s floor (the least it will do) and its ceiling (its best-case scenario). For example,Ā Lightning Boltā€˜s power floor is higher thanĀ Fatal Pushā€˜s, as Push is dead when opponents have no creatures while Bolt can go to the face.

Splashability will be rated by considering how many existing Modern decks can accommodate the card and whether they’ll want it. For example, despite its lack of a color identity,Ā Ghost QuarterĀ doesn’t fit into BGx midrange decks. These decks can easily runĀ Fulminator MageĀ as mana disruption instead, and prefer not to miss a land drop if they don’t have to.

Each metric will be rated out of 5, giving cards a total rating out of 15. As ever, the usual disclaimer stands: just because a card scores low or doesn’t make the list means little in terms of its overall playability. After all, splashability is a metric. Some of the strongest cards in the format in terms of raw tournament wins are themselves rather limited in terms of which decks can employ them.

Incarnations Need Not Apply

While the better Incarnations do score enough points on these metrics to make the Top 5, we've already ranked and gone over them in detail, and I wanted to cover them as a group. But for reference, I'd score them as follows in terms of overall points:

  • Grief: 8/15
  • Fury: 8/15
  • Endurance: 9/15
  • Subtlety: 11/15
  • Solitude: 12/15

That means the latter two would edge out the picks in today's article. As we saw yesterday, this cycle is unmistakably quite pushed and very powerful. With that out of the way, though, let's check out MH2's top non-Incarnation cards.

#5: Sudden Edict

Overall: 9/15

Power: 3

Two mana to remove a creature? Yawn! This is the format of Path to Exile, Fatal Push, and the infamous Lightning Bolt. But there are some things even Path can't take out, such as a cheated-in Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or a full-grown Hexdrinker. Edict doesn't ask questions, as it doesn't care what your opponent might have to say: if they only have out one creature, it is 100% getting off the table, even if they're smugly gripping Counterspell. Split second makes the card a strict upgrade to Diabolic Edict, a card played in Legacy to this day for its renowned versatility.

Flexibility: 3

Edict is flexible in that it can potentially remove anything, which is more than any other instant in Modern can say for itself—even Emrakul, the Promised End, with its derpy "protection from instants," is Edict food. But it's still held back by a couple factors. For one, it costs two mana, which lowers its potential use in many situations relative to something like Fatal Push. And second, removing one key threat with high accuracy is dependant on opponents not having other creatures they can sacrifice instead. That sits this card somewhere in the middle for me flexibility-wise, but make no mistake: it's Edict's potential flexibility in certain scenarios that will guarantee it long-term Modern play as of Horizons becoming legal.

Splashability: 3

Sudden Edict is no harder to splash than Tarmogoyf, but players may lack incentive to do so. For example, white decks have less use for Edict since they've already got Modern's other premier removal, like Path to Exile and Prismatic Ending. Other strategies still prefer efficient removal to cards that can delete an Emrakul. For these reasons, the card seems mostly destined to show up in the sideboards of black-heavy midrange decks and black-featuring combo decks, which it will for maybe ever. It's absolutely coming in for matchups where players want all the removal they can get, but also provides a blanket check to strategies that were previously tough to stop, such as those focused on sneaking in a hit with Griselbrand or Emrakul ASAP.

#4: Urza's Saga

Overall: 10/15

Power: 5

Urza's Saga did not receive much press compared to the set's more straightforward goodies, but I believe it's quietly among the best cards in Modern Horizons 2. Part of what makes players allergic to Saga is its weirdness: there is just no precedent for a card like this, let alone an enchantment land. As sometimes happens without precedent, early designs can prove busted in application (see also: Lurrus of the Dream-Den; Skullclamp; Tarmogoyf; Jace, the Mind Sculptor).

Power level illustrates how much the card does for its cost. Saga is a zero-mana play that, when sequenced properly, locks in a pair of massive beaters and tutors a critical artifact from the deck. Being a land, it's also incredibly difficult to interact with meaningfully, being immune to the likes of Abrupt Decay, Prismatic Ending, Thoughtseize, and more.

Here is an example sequence that will see plenty of action in artifact decks going forward. Take for granted that the Saga player makes their land drop each turn.

  • Turn three: Play Saga, tap it to do something else
  • Turn four: Tap Saga and two lands to make a Construct
  • Turn five: Draw for turn, tap Saga and two lands to make a Construct tutor Basilisk Collar, equip it to the first Construct, and attack for a life swing of 6+

Much of Saga's power lies in its reliability, and the above constitutes what I'd consider a pretty comprehensive plan for a card whose floor is literally being a land that taps for colorless. One strike against Saga is that it will be traded in for an artifact every time; there's no option to keep it around as a land. But because of how saga enchantments work, players can still float a colorless in the main phase of that last turn to make their big play, and the mana it would normally cost to cast a one-mana artifact is on the house—if we're talking raw mana numbers, Saga is a Sol Ring on that final turn. I've found that being smart about which turn Saga is deployed, rather than just slamming it right away, allows for enough planning that trading it for a choice one-drop is almost always a big benefit.

The natural next question: how good is Construct? Without any other artifact support, that lifelinker (and its partner blocker) will be a 3/3 on the turn it crashes into the red zone. With just a single additional artifact, even Darksteel Citadel, it grows to the much larger 4/4, and things just scale up from there. When chaining multiple Sagas, they rapidly become enormous. In an artifact-heavy shell, the ability to pump two massive tokens out of a land that's also tutoring up a critical card will make Saga among the better cards in the deck, both to open and to draw into at any game stage.

Flexibility: 4

Even though it "only" taps for colorless, Saga offers pilots oodles of versatility. Sure, players can always just make two big dudes and go to town with a Collar. But there are unending variations on this sequence: players need not make a Construct every turn if they have other things to do with their mana (although waiting to plop down Saga until one's other options are more or less depleted extracts maximum value from the land), and they can search up any number of powerful artifacts. Among the juiciest:

  • Basilisk Collar
  • Grafdigger's Cage
  • Relic of Progenitus
  • Pithing Needle

Beyond whichever trinkets are best in the mainboard, any of these cards can be run at a single copy in the sideboard to be playing a functional five copies in game 2, four of which can't be countered or discarded and will come into play directly from the deck (essentially with suspend 2) without charging players a single mana. And for specific decks or more niche uses, there are plenty more intriguing artifacts to choose from.

Key cards in specific decks:

  • Amulet of Vigor
  • Animation Module
  • Colossus Hammer
  • The Rack

Niche options and bullets:

  • Bomat Courier (we're gonna be attacking anyway)
  • Expedition Map (keep them Sagas coming, or turn Saga into a tutor for lands)
  • Mishra's Bauble (Urza's Saga: the rich man's Horizon Canopy!)
  • Nihil Spellbomb (for those in black who like their graveyards)
  • Brittle Effigy (heavy-duty creature removal in a pinch)
  • Zuran Orb (sorry Burn)

That's a huge array of possible Saga searches, and the pool will only grow as Wizards continues printing Magic cards. Deploying Saga with some foresight lets players very reliably access an otherwise highly surgical piece of disruption on just the right turn, a godsend for the decks that can fit the land.

Splashability: 1

Here's where Saga drops the ball. Few decks in color-hungry Modern can afford to sleeve up colorless lands, and Saga also requires players to include one-drop artifacts that might not see play in the build otherwise. So besides meshing with a few very specific strategies, Saga demands significant commitment while deckbuilding.

Because maximizing Saga is a mana-intensive affair, it plays exceptionally well with mana rocks, as these also happen to grow the Constructs. Realistically, though, any artifact-heavy deck that's not too demanding color-wise will love packing 2-4 of these. I'm thinking Urza, Lord High Artificer decks as well as ones that could use the bodies as blockers or a Plan B, but will mostly be drawn to the tutor effect, like Lantern and 8-Rack. And then there's the combo with Titania and Zuran Orb, which may also spawn a deck.

Another home for Saga is Eldrazi, both the colorless aggro strains I'm known for (where Saga shines bright for the bodies; more to come!) and Eldrazi Tron (where it will at the very least be run as a target for Expedition Map), but I imagine may creep up in number as players start to realize it's the best last land they could drop onto the battlefield). Being able to search up Basilisk Collar makes Saga very appealing for decks already locked into Walking Ballista.

#3: Prismatic Ending

Overall: 11/15

Power: 3

Remember, we're measuring power by impact for cost. Much of the time, Ending won't provide an enormous swing on this metric: one mana to remove a one-mana spell; two mana to remove a two-mana spell; and so on. You'll always trade with opponents on mana, unless they cheated out their card that costs between one and five (not likely), and unless they in fact paid an additional cost for their card. Some examples of the latter: they tutor up a creature with Eladamri's Call, essentially making it cost an additional GW; they take themselves down to 8 life for Death's Shadow, a steep condition if the payoff creature gets removed; they gut their own graveyard for Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger, or sink extra mana into kicker, as with Tide Shaper.

But generally, Ending trades with opponents on mana to hard-remove a permanent. Which isn't necessarily bad; people snipe one-drops with Abrupt Decay all the time, while Ending will never overcharge for that kind of effect. It's just deece.

Flexibility: 5

Here's where the points come rushing in. Modern deckbuilding has always been about striking a balance between artifact hate, enchantment removal, cards that interact well against planeswalkers, etc. Being able to target any permanent is the crux that brought Brazen Borrower into the fold of format playability despite its clear drawbacks. And it's the condition that ensures Prismatic Ending will go down as one of the most fearsome pieces of removal in the format.

I remember when Isolate was spoiled and the Modern players I associated with all wondered about its playability here. "It removes Death's Shadow, but also Aether Vial!" "No more worrying about turn one Expedition Map!" "You could nab a Utopia Sprawl!" "Shame about Chalice of the Void, though..." No more! Prismatic Ending (while admittedly slower, at sorcery) does indeed exile Chalice of the Void, as X is payable whether or not players want to remove a high-cost card, and Ending says "or less," letting it remove 0-cost permanents. But it also removes literally everything else. Choke. Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Scourge of the Skyclaves. Batterskull. The Batterskull token, for one mana mind you. And all it asks are two things:

  • The same amount of mana spent by opponents (in terms of tempo, Ending is almost always a wash)
  • That players can produce enough different colors to make full use of converge (in a three-color deck, I'd call it a significant upgrade to Abrupt Decay, and the more the merrier)

It's true that Ending is a sorcery, and that quirk makes many clunkier removal options better in certain scenarios. If this card was an instant, I would give it a 6.

Splashability: 3

The balancing act of converge will limit Ending's widespread adoption. Not only is the card white, traditionally one of the weakest colors in Modern, but players must commit to multiple other colors as well if they want to tap into the sorcery's true power. I do think Ending is good enough to splash for, but not so much that all decks lacking white entirely will want to eschew on-color solutions to problem permanents such as Maelstrom Pulse or Abrade. Ending is by no means a death knell for all utility removal options. But in the decks that can swing it, absolutely.

Making a Splash

There's no doubt these cards will rock the Modern format. But a couple still remain that I'd peg as even more worthy of splashing, discussion, and... dare I say it... fear. Join me tomorrow for an in-depth discussion of the two best cards in Modern Horizons 2!

MH2 Overview, Pt. 2: Playing the Part

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To quote a great doctor, "the M.H. saga continues." Yesterday, we considered the decks to be impacted and created by Modern Horizons 2, and today, we'll look at at the many role-players present in the set.Ā Let's begin with the Incarnation cycle (ranked!), after which we'll check out new removal, utility, and build-around options. Finally, it wouldn't be a for-Modern set without some targeted hate, so we'll peep those as well!

Utility Incarnate: The MH2 Pitch Cycle

Among the flashiest cards in Modern Horizons 2 are those that make up the new pitch cycle, or provide an effect for free should players elect to exile a card from their hand. These are a different breed from the pitch cycle in MH1, as they're all Incarnation creatures with evoke, giving them added utility as aggressively-costed bodies. Between that utility, their "free" mode, and their unique and powerful effects, the members of this cycle are sure to support heaps of Modern strategies in the years to come—except, ironically, for Grief, the first card of the cycle to be spoiled and in my eyes far and away the weakest. So it would come in at #5 on a ranking system. Let's keep going from there!

#4: Fury

In terms of straight-up effects, Fury can often have the most impactful, offering casters a pair of Forked Bolts. These can dismantle an enemy board with the utmost precision, dealing one to a dork, two to a creature, and another two a minused walker, for instance; all the excess damage goes to the dome, of course, which makes Fury very low-commitment. Indeed, I imagine it will often be cast as a kill spell with some trample.

The spell loses some points for speed; being a sorcery, Fury can't interact with enemy combos, which dramatically lowers its value as a free spell. And it will be pretty tough to cast in most of the decks that want it. Besides, pilots don't get much for shelling out the five mana; double strike is certainly a great ability, but it's not close to at its best on a 3/3 in Modern. The damn thing dies to Lightning Bolt!

Where to find it: Red-heavy combo, midrange, and control decks might want Fury as a way to take apart fishy boards of hatebears or just beaters. But how many of those can you name? Storm?

#3: Endurance

Being green, Endurance has the most aggressively costed body of the cycle. A 3/4 with reach and flash is one dangerous spider, taking out any of Modern's Stage 1 creatures as they dash naively into the red zone as well as pricier utility threats that don't know any better (including, say, Lurrus of the Dream-Den). The threat of Endurance from green decks will have players thinking twice before they come in with the team, and make casting spells in the second main phase more important than ever.

On the flip side, its effect is the narrowest of the cards here, but still quite impactful when it matters: putting the graveyard on the bottom of the library is somewhat better than exiling it, where players still retain some degree of access to the cards. And doing so for free at instant speed will blow out a bevy of Modern combos so long as players draw into Endurance before that critical turn.

Where to find it: Endurance is likely to do the most damage out of something like Amulet Titan, Infect, or Elves. These are combo-oriented decks that incentivize opponents to swing in big and early as they race to beat the clock, and that's a game state Endurance takes advantage of on defence. Plus, it's 0-mana graveyard interaction on the same sideboard slot.

#2: Subtlety

Aether Gust has proven itself a fixture of the Modern tournament scene, popping up in sideboards everywhere even now that Uro's long gone and Tarmogoyf has been dethroned as the king of two-drops. That's because topping or bottoming (heck, you choose!) a permanent or spell on the cheap provides a massive tempo swing. (Aside: pour one out for my boy Memory Lapse who did not end up getting a reprint.)

Subtlety gives up Gust's ability to hit permanents for the broader ability to hit all creatures or planeswalkers, regardless of color, while they're still on the stack. In that sense, it's a psuedo-Memory Lapse, playing more like a counterspell than a kill spell. The 3/3 body provides a clock in its own right, and it all comes together for a bargain bin price of 4 mana.

Where to find it: Expect Subtlety primarily out of blue-heavy creature decks like Merfolk, but also in slower control and midrange shells, where it will buy precious time in the early game.

#1: Solitude

Solitude casts the mythical Swords to Plowshares, a card that has yet to come to Legacy-lite, ahem, I mean Modern. On a 3/2 lifelinking body, that's all players might need to turn the tide of a game. But having a free, instant-speed Swords is also nothing to sneeze it, giving Solitude two highly impactful modes in one neat package. Mix in flash and it's a potential double-removal spell, trading with one attacker while exiling another, or just an end-of-turn tempo swing, taking out a lone blocker to crack back for a six-point swing.

Where to find it: Since Swords to Plowshares is such a versatile spell, and Solitude's many modes make it such a versatile creature, I can see Solitude supporting strategies as diverse as midrange, control, and fish-style aggro like Death & Taxes. My initial impression is that just about every fair deck with a high white concentration will want this card. Oh, and that Ephemerate interaction people were losing their heads about when Grief was spoiled? It's actually on-color with this guy! Instant staple!

Additional Support

Modern Horizons 2 is chock full of cards generic enough to be splashed across multiple strategies, but useful enough for players to actually want them. These spells provide a welcome boost to Modern's overall power level as they expand the pool of playable role-players, ultimately giving deckbuilders more choice regarding who they want to beat and how. They're my favorite kind of new card!

Removal

Seal of Removal: Seal of Fire was already played in prowess decks, and I imagine storing Unsummon on a get-it-now prowess trigger will be very exciting for those same mages. After all, Unsummon is a more reasonable Modern card than Shock. (Don't @ me. Just cuz I've always wanted to say that.)

Suspend: Temporary removal, just like Unsummon. Except it's not quite like Unsummon, because the creature can't be cast the following turn; delay-wise, it's more like Reflector Mage. Of note, the creature gets haste when it returns, and opponents don't have to spend mana recasting it, making it worse than Mage or Unsummon when it comes to sapping tempo. I'd say most of Suspend's potential comes from its interaction with Teferi, Time Raveler, which forces the card to just stay exiled. Very likely to see play in decks that both a) run Teferi and b) might want to hit their own creatures with Suspend to double up on ETB triggers or protect against removal.

Bone Shards: Very flexible removal spell that is sure to see use in strategies that like discarding (Hollow One, Dredge, etc.). Off the bat, Shards strikes me as a significant upgrade to Lightning Axe. Sacrificing a creature seems like a steep cost, but since discarding remains a possibility, it's straight upside over Axe. You can drop a 1/1 Elemental token for this thing and keep that Bedlam Reveler in hand!

Vindicate: The known and feared Vindicate, at last in Modern. Goodbye, Malestrom Pulse! And goodbye, Steam Vents!

Nevinyrral's Disk: The known and not-so-feared Nev Disk. This is Modern, not Commander, so Disk is unlikely to make huge waves. Tron might want it over some number of Oblivion Stone; it's pretty nice against Blood Moon, as Tron can tap out for it, then crack it on the following turn and unlock all their lands immediately.

Utility

Bone Shredder: Fleshbag Marauder upgrade for creature toolbox decks.

Karmic Guide: Reanimate spell for creature toolbox decks. Or... combo piece?

Fire // Ice: A storied utility instant, featuring both Forked Bolt and Niveous Wisps one a single card. Cantrip, removal, combo stopper... what's not to love? Neither side is very powerful, true, but it may show up in URx midrange and bigger tempo decks, such as Kiki-Exarch.

Sword of Hearth and Home: The rumors were true... not all the utility cards are reprints! Hearth and Home is an appealing Stoneforge target for Ephemerate decks. It's also ramp, making the card potentially deadly out of such strategies. Of course, they still need to connect, but the potential of blinking Stoneforge itself makes Hearth and Home a potential engine-in-a-can.

Nobody Asked, But Cool

Goblin Anarchomancer: Goblin Electromancer and Baral, Chief of Storms see play in Storm, where they lower the cost of the requisite rituals for comboing off. Anarchomancer might see play in a similar kind of deck that aims to power out creatures or planeswalkers ahead of schedule. So far, that deck hasn't existed, but I'm anxious to see what it might look like.

Mishra's Factory: The best manland comes to Modern, giving Mutavault a run for its money in decks that don't need the tribal synergy. Granted, that's not many, but Factory also gives Blinkmoth some competition in Affinity and related artifact decks. I mean, it's juts so big!

Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth: Urborg for Forests. Yawn with raised eyebrows.

Some Hate for Your Plate

All that support don't come for free. Leave it to Wizards to rain on our fun. Or, rather, give us the tools to rain on someone else's.

Creatures

Cursed Totem: An incredible hoser against the right decks, shutting down mana dorks, tap effects, and every other activated ability. But Totem is also very narrow. Anyhow, this is the real reason Heliod decks are no longer Tier 0. (jjjkkk.)

Dress Down: Now that's more like it. Kiss your creature combo turn goodbye. Plus a cantrip even when it's not useful, and when is it not useful? Against most decks, Dress Down provides at least a Stifle, stopping a Kroxa trigger or a Confidant reveal or a Hierarch from tapping in the main phase or a Scourge of the Skyclaves from existing. Yes, it murders Scourge of the Skyclaves and then cantrips. Yes, it turns Death's Shadow into a 12/12 for the turn. Yes, grow big Goyf. A+ from ya boi.

Colorless

Void Mirror: Tron can still cast their spells using Forest, or the mana from Chromatic Sphere. But they need to tap Forest to cast another Chromatic Sphere, so I'm not sure this card is totally blank against them. Granted, it's much better against decks like Colorless Eldrazi, which have little choice other than to pack some color-producing lands if this nasty trinket catches on. And why wouldn't it catch on? It also hoses Suspend and various cheaty things. Wizards be like: cheaty this zero-mana Warp World! Also Wizards: no cheaty! How Modern of them.

Obsidian Charmaw: This one's for the mainboard, especially in those red stompy decks that show up from time to time. What were they called again? Spread? Steed? Anyway, while Ponza and its ilk like to destroy basic lands so Blood Moon can do its dirty, Moon's not always online, and Charmaw is pretty much guaranteed targets in every Modern matchup. Sometimes it costs two mana, but it's a deal at three. This is officially the first Dragon I want to cast off Sarkhan, Fireblood.

Break the Ice: A Sinkhole retrain for our time. Can we really not have Sinkhole? As things stand, this one feels a bit niche.

Graveyards

Sanctifier en-Vec: Rest in Peace on a stick that singles out black and red. But most valuable things being dumped are black and red. Arclight Phoenix, Prized Amalgam, Stinkweed Imp, Bloodghast, Hogaak... oh wait, wrong Horizons. Yeah, this card will see hella play. Unlike blowing up lands for two mana, protection is actually broken, perhaps especially on a Rest in Peace that can't be Nature's Claimed, Abrupt Decayed, Lightning Axed... bruh, how does Dredge even kill this thing?

Dauthi Voidwalker: Might as well have Leyline of the Void on a stick, too. This one's a lot worse than Sanctifier, but not without its potential. Black could always use more hosers. That second ability seems like a whole lot of text for nothing.

Blessed Respite: Gaea's Blessing, meet Fog. Soothing Rest, meet The Sideboard. Rest is a versatile card that ironically fails to fulfill a key goal of Gaea's Blessing in the decks that side it where it's legal, which is to not lose against Mill. We'll miss the cantrip, too.

Walkers and Burn

Walkers and Burn, huh? Okay, not exactly cohesive, but that's what's left!

Flame Blitz: So you hate planeswalkers. Boy, have we got the card for you! Blitz is the one-mana walker sweeper that just keeps on sweeping. And if opponents don't have any, it can just be cycled. Value! Or if you already resolved one. Value! Or you could just cast that second one and deal 10 to all the walkers every round. You do hate planeswalkers, don't you?

Blossoming Calm: Seems like decent Burn hate on paper: best-case scenario, you counter a Boros Charm, then gain 4 life over the course of two turns. That's 8 life for one mana. But wait... what about Life Goes On? Indeed, the decks that can support it will favor Life Goes On, which doesn't need opponents to target them with a juicy spell to get off. But Calm is more splashable and has the benefit of stopping big plays like Grapeshot and even effects like Liliana of the Veil's -2 or a Glimpse the Unthinkable, giving it wider applications in Modern generally than just stopping Burn.

Love 'Em or Hate 'Em

Whether you're down with the crew or screaming "down with the new," there's something for you in Modern Horizons 2! You hear that, Wizards? Better tap my jingle-writing for MH3! As for the rest of you still reading, join me tomorrow for the final segment of this comprehensive spoiler review: my Top 5 cards of the new expansion. Or have I given them away by now?

MH2 Overview, Pt. 1: Home Cooking

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The bars are opening, and with them, certain among the FNM registry's many stinky basements. In other words, it's officially Christmas. And if you don't celebrate Christmas, well, it's time to start: Modern Horizons 2 is fully spoiled as of yesterday! On that note, I'm thrilled to welcome you, fellow Modern fanatic, to the first of three consecutive articles forming a comprehensive look at the many playables in the latest and greatest Magic: the Gathering set (or, dare I say... of all time?!).

Home is where the heart is, so today's segment focuses on the Modern decks both revitalized by and spurred into being thanks to the new printings. Tomorrow, we'll look at the more generic support (and, of course, hate) printed to support or reign in different playstyles. And on Saturday, I'll unveil my picks for the top five best cards in the set.

New Decks

Besides just "helping Dredge," Modern Horizons 2 will create some brand-new strategies in the format. There are plenty of great cards here, but not all of them have a home... yet!

Tokens

Let's get the least impressive new deck out of the way first: Tokens. The payoffs introduced in Modern Horizons 2 are among the weakest in the set (exception: Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer), but I'd wager the potential synergies are charming enough to tempt players into building towards them.

Lonis, Cryptozoologist: Lonis investigates whenever a creature enters the battlefield, which isn't the toughest condition to meet. With that being said, it's a lot harder than existing options (see below). Where the Legend really shines is with its tap ability, which converts those many clues, formerly mana sinks, into mana and card advantage, flipping the script on their usefulness and letting players cast an opponent's cards for free.

Fae Offering: Generating one of each token is exactly where those serious about this archetype will want to be. Given Modern's wealth of versatile options, including Mishra's Bauble, Manamorphose, Noble Hierarch, and the like, it won't be too tough to meet Offering's condition on most turns, turning this unassuming enchantment into a potentially value-laden enabler.

Academy Manufactor: Um, let's start over: generating three of each token is exactly where those serious about this archetype will want to be. Manufactor turns Fae Offering, and especially simpler set-up cards, into nightmares for opponents to dismantle; in other words, it gets the ball rolling big-time.

Existing options: Modern has its share of cards that play nice with these theme. I'd say best of all is the already-played Tireless Tracker, which combines with fetchlands to pump out a grip of clues. I wonder if Standard all-stars like Goldspan Dragon and Galazeth Prismari won't be suitable payoffs here too, given their absurd potential when combined with these newer cards. Overall, though, the token theme strikes me as a little cute and a little durdly, and if it comes to be, will be floated mostly by Ragavan.

Enchantments

Up next is a carry-over from Legacy, although Enchantments is less of a Legacy deck than ever. What better time than now to port it over to Modern, and with some new toys to boot?

Sterling Grove: The first reprint on our list, Grove gives players access to a toolbox element, and as we know there's no shortage of surgical enchantments in Modern. That means Grove is something of a themed Demonic Tutor, and it also provides the buff of granting shroud to important pieces in a lockdown. At two mana, it's sure to be a staple in the deck, at least in its early stages.

Enchantress's Presence: Another reprint, Presence is the classic draw engine for Enchantress decks, taking its name from Argothian Enchantress (at this time, still not in Modern). At two mana, this one is sure to be a staple in the deck well into its old age. When Presence stops being good, the deck itself stops being good. And yeah, this is the hyper-aggressive, hyper-punishing Modern, so that may or may not be out of gate.

Sanctum Weaver: At last, a newbie! Weaver is Serra's Sanctum on legs, with the added benefit of making any color mana. Of course, Sanctum is much better, as it costs no mana and can't be Bolted; Modern may well be on its way to becoming Legacy-lite, but not without the caveat of Wizards deciding which cards to exclude from the format. I wouldn't hold my breath for Sanctum and its cycle-mates Gaea's Cradle and Tolarian Academy (okay, this last one is banned even from Legacy).

Sythis, Harvest's Hand: And here's our Argothian Enchantress retrain! I'd say losing shroud in Modern definitely hurts more than the lifegain helps, but we can't call this two-mana Nymph quite a strictly-worse version. In multiples, that life gain will surely add up into a win a nonzero percentage of the time.

Existing options: I can see some of these cards finding their way into Bogles; for example, Presence is a lot more appealing than the Bolt-able Kor Spiritdancer in some instances, and may at least inspire a split. The newer Omen of the Sea seems incredible in a deck that's all-in on casting enchantments, and since that and Abundant Growth already see play in the high-volume Yorion decks, there may even be an 80-deck Enchantments deck on the horizon. Those one-mana enchantments (Utopia Sprawl too) play especially nice with these newer payoffs.

Affinity

New deck? Affinity? New deck? That's right, folks: since the Mox Opal ban, Affinity is nowhere to be found, by and large replaced (if half-assedly so) by Hardened Scales. And if you really want to get real, Affinity was never really real Affinity anyway, at most points featuring zero cards with the word itself even printed on them. So yes, Affinity. New deck.

Thought Monitor: Thoughtcast on a body. That makes this something of a draw three, with the extra mana cost being channeled directly into one of the cards, itself always a 2/2 flier. Good enough indeed, as Monitor both affects the board and draws into more gas.

Ethersworn Sphinx: Cascade is a lot better than draw 2. Right? Right...? Well, maybe not! In the build of post-MH2 Affinity I've been seeing pop up in casual online rooms, Sphinx tends to cascade into a mana rock or an Ornithopter. After all, the deck is mostly made up of cheap enablers. The value is still potentially there, and it does replace itself at worst. But I anticipate the main draw to Sphinx will be the slight velocity it provides (you might as well be drawing most of the time) and the massive 4/4 flying body.

Existing options: I mean, you know them—Ornithopter, Memnite, Frogmite. The decklist practically writes itself. The tuning is where things will start to get interesting: Chromatic Star & company, or no? Dispatch vs. Glavanic Blast? Do we run Sphinx at all? How about them tapped artifact lands? Uh... can Wizards unban Seat of the Synod already?! Is Cranial Plating even worth casting in 2021? (jk.)

Existing Decks

Then there are decks that already exist in Modern, and that Wizards graciously decide to throw a freakin' bone here to. Among these are fan-favorites like Merfolk, fan-most-hateds such as Suspend, and domain & delirium, a pair of mechanics that have occasionally centralized deckbuilding choices for other strategies.

Merfolk

As David has noted, Rishidan Dockhand provides a powerful effect on a bulky one-drop, yielding something Merfolk certainly wants. But it's not even the best Merfolk in the set.

Tide Shaper: Shaper is a one-drop and Spreading Seas all in one, with players being given the option to kick it for a mana extra and have what's effectively a Spreading Seas on legs. That's mana disruption and islandwalk enabling on a cheap body. I don't think it'll necessarily be a toss-up as to whether to run Shaper and Dockhand, either, as the two abilities play very well with one another; Dockhand can tie up the opponent's remaining colored mana while Shaper and friends crash into the Island across the board. The land is freed should Shaper die, but that drawback seems quite minimal compared to the upside of running 4.

Svyelun of Sea and Sky: This card doesn't look much like a Merfolk at all, at least in terms of strategic cohesion. But that's okay with me, and potential Svyleun's strength: it gives the deck a desperately needed Plan B. Unlike Merfolk's other threats, Svyelun is perfectly fine to be on the battlefield by itself, and indeed threatens to walk away with games unmolested; indeed, I even saw one out of UW Control the other day. That means potential to claw back into games and defeat board stalls, something Merfolk has traditionally sucked at. And it's not like Svyleun is bad in Merfolk itself: giving all your guys ward makes it considerably harder for opponents to dismantle the pumps-and-islandwalk synergies, incentivizing them to deal with this bulky bad boy first... and good luck with that, if it's indestructible!

Suspend

Up next is Suspend, a deck so named despite the rarity that it even casts its spells off said mechanic; rather, Suspend decks in Modern are more about cheating the cost via cascade or Electrodominance. These new cards either prop up the existing Suspend decks or give them access to entirely new dimensions.

Inevitable Betrayal: This one may find its way into all Suspend sideboards, as it can steal key creatures out of Tron or other big mana strategies. Wurmcoil Engine or Emrakul, the Aeons Torn sure beats making a pair of 4/4s off Crashing Footfalls, and potentially anything else the Suspend deck wants to be cheating.

Glimpse of Tomorrow: New dimension #1, and in my eyes the most likely to spur a new build into being. Glimpse wants players to commit a ton of permanents to the board (mana rocks, etc.) and then cheat out the title card to effectively cascade into Emrakul, Omnipotence, or whatever else. So it's literally Warp World, an eight-mana sorcery that has seen Standard play at the heart of a similar deck. And cheating out a suspend spell is way easier than ramping into eight mana. Not to mention players can just pay two mana to lock it up for 3 turns, which will definitely win games from time to time.

Gaea's Will: New dimension #2, Gaea's Will is a retrain of Yawgmoth's Will, one of the most broken spells ever printed. We may see Will at the heart of a Storm-esque deck with an Electrodominance package or even as a way to just generate a bunch of value in the mid-game for other Suspend decks. I'm the most excited about the possibilities with this one. Of course, it may also end up being a flop.

Resurgent Belief: New Dimension # 3: A suspended Replenish. Belief also has combo potential, albeit in a totally different kind of shell. This deck could run self-mill or enchantment Entombs to set up a lock, or even just tempo- or value-generating enchantments like Omen of the Sea and Seal of Removal, or perhaps a mix of both. An interesting thing about Belief is that its Suspend mode actually isn't so much to ask, costing just two mana and charging two upkeeps before resolving, so it may see play without Electrodominance and the like to push it out early or on demand.

Domain & Delirium

Both of these mechanics have seen Modern play on the most powerful cards respectively featuring them: Tribal Flames; Traverse the Ulvenwald; Grim Flayer; Wild Nacatl; Tarmogoyf. Er... okay, so the last two technically lacked the keywords, but you get the idea. Since the mana is so good in Modern thanks to the fetch-shock norm, and delirium is relatively easy to splash thanks to enablers like Bauble and Manamorphose, all of these cards are liable to see some play, both in and out of dedicated decks.

Scion of Draco: Two mana for a 4/4 flier that gives all your creatures useful keywords? Talk about pushed. Players will need all five basic types to pull that off, but given that Tribal Flames has incentivized Zoo decks to splash every color as recently as last month, the strategy is far from dated, and players will absolutely make Draco work.

Territorial Kavu: This guy is amazing as well. Even better than Draco, if you ask me! Part of what makes Kavu so appealing is that it's a terrific rate even without the full five basic land types, so four-color aggro decks can make good use of him, too. Still, it will definitely appear alongside Draco in revamped domain decks. It's cheap, huge, and provides both card filtering and incidental graveyard hate. What's not to love?

Dragon's Rage Channeller: Which brings us to delirium. Four card types is a lot to ask on a Stage 1 creature, as I found out testing Gnarlwood Dryad in Delirium Zoo. But in a dedicated delirium aggro shell, Channeller may well support a cast that includes Dryad. It helps that Channeller provides not just card filtering, but graveyard dumps, and that it becomes a 3/3 flier, which is tremendous for the one-mana cost. My pick for best delirium card in MH2.

Bloodbraid Marauder: Flashier than Channeller, as it's got Bloodbraid Elf's text box for half the cost. But keep in mind that delirium generally asks players to stuff their decks with air like Mishra's Bauble, weakening the potential hits, and that Marauder can't cascade into two- or three-drops, which will make the value it generates a lot lower on average than what Elf can come up with. Still, it should slot right into the delirium aggro deck.

Unholy Heat: The most splashable of the delirium spells, Heat kills a heck of a lot for one mana... provided players can meet its condition reliably. Six is a critical number in Modern, destroying the format's biggest and baddest creatures (including Primeval Titan). In the meantime, 2 damage does snipe a fair bit.

Shoe-Ins

The following cards are very likely includes in existing Modern decks, but won't transform the archetype by any means. They'll just soup it up a bit. In alphabetical order, because why not?

Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar: Hollow One, for which it's essentially Wild Nacatl. And hey, searching up the The Underworld Cookbook seems fine to lock in a discard outlet. You can thank this card (whose name was also so long it screwed up the mana cost) for offsetting up my typeline, by the way. (Not that it wasn't already doomed by my insistence on uploading images for every single new card.)

Damn: Black-heavy control and midrange with access to white. That means you, Esper Control! On power level: it's past due Wrath of God received an upgrade. And black some no-questions-asked two-mana removal. Two birds with one stone.

Defile: Anything Swamp-heavy. 8-Rack? Urborg, welcome into the fold!

Esper Sentinel: Humans. Not very aggressive, so potentially a sideboard card, but extremely powerful a lot of the time, especially with built-in synergy to grow it. I've seen "Rhystic Buddy" thrown around as a potential nickname; co-sign.

Flame Rift: Burn. I will note that in this more-combo-oriented-than-Legacy Modern format, 4 damage to each player might not be optimal; in racing scenarios, it's often less impressive than even Skullcrack, which provides a 3-point swing compared to Rift's 0-point swing. (Lightning Helix is king in these scenarios, generatingĀ  a 6-point swing; Helix-or-Rift metagames, anyone?)

Fractured Sanity: Mill.

Quirion Ranger: Elves.

Riptide Laboratory: Faeries as a one-of, and potentially other slow Wizards decks. These are generally Tier 3 or worse, but Laboratory will nonetheless find a place in them.

Shardless Agent: Suspend, but also random UGx midrange decks, and maybe Urza shells. This card will be find a ton of homes. Run with 4 Bloodbraid Elf for Modern Waterfalls, and with the new Bloodbraid Marauder for even more cascade giggles! (Or don't, and that guy at your FNM will.)

Zabaz, the Glimmerwasp: Hardened Scales. Maybe Affinity, depending on how that shakes out.

Other Build-Arounds

These are very likely to see play in some capacity, but in newer shells, or in ways we haven't yet seen. Reverse-alphabetical this time. U mad?

Verdant Command: Very competitive as a token generator, for the decks that want that kind of thing, including Transmogrify strategies. It does cost a card, but Command offers plenty of utility for those in the business of breeding Squirrels.

Upheaval: A Commander favorite sure to be built towards as a one-card combo finish. Likely to be fringe, in the same way that Blue Tron is fringe, but to nab a result here or there. For the Spikes scratching their heads, Upheaval's big ticket is that it also bounces lands, acting as a heavy-duty reset button.

Persist: Wizards didn't just want us reanimating Griselbrand and Emrakul every time. But part of the reason Modern players love reanimating Griselbrand and Emrakul is that they're actually targetable by the two-mana Goryo's Vengeance. Persist opens many doors for reanimator strategies, and we may start to see some strategic variety among them, too, as they lean into midrange and ease up on their combo dimensions. I imagine Persist is attractive for Ghost Dad, for instance, but even moreso that it could create new Ghost Dad-type decks that aren't themselves locked into reanimating Obzedat and Jace.

Murktide Regent:Ā Blue Tombstalker. Possibly not good enough in Modern. We have Scourge of the Skyclaves now, as well as, say, Pteramander.

Kaldra Compleat: Gives Batterskull some competition in terms of juicy Stoneforge Mystic picks. I even ran into a fully-invested white build trying to slam these as fast as possible via not just Mystic, but Quest for the Holy Relic. And all because haste is Time Walk.

Imperial Recruiter: Now this is a high-profile reprint! Previously, Recruiter was going for hundreds of dollars based on Legacy demand alone. It really gets anything, and isn't restricted to type like Goblin Matron, meaning this creature will see play in all the fish, value, or toolbox decks that could want it and are down to splash red.

Ignoble Hierarch: I'm itching to see the shells Ignoble Hierarch inspires. Mid-sized Jund aggro? Good ol' Jund Rock, but with dorks? Who knows! All that's for certain is that this evil (not to mention smelly) Noble Hierarch will see heaps of play.

General Ferrous Rokiric: Hexproof from monocolored spells means he's immune to Bolt, Push, Path, and even Collected Brutality. Then he's making huge bodies whenever a multicolored spell gets cast, including Manamorphose and, like, Burning-Tree Emissary. Oh, and Mantis Rider. Yeah, this guy's a Human! Maybe he should be in Shoe-Ins.... or maybe he'll helm a new multicolored aggro deck more focused on getting opponents dead than disrupting them. Think Voice of Resurgence and Siege Rhino. And Jegantha, the Wellspring!

Braids, Cabal Minion: Papa's got a brand new bag of Smallpox.

Home for Christmas... in July... uh... June

Are these cards slotting into your Modern deck? That new Affinity got your gears turning? Or are you just waiting on that juicy (predictable?) Top 5? Let me know in the comments, and join me tomorrow for the second chapter of our comprehensive Modern Horizons 2 spoiler overview: role-players and hate!

Read Part 2 here.

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