menu

CommanderCast S5E12 | Call-InFerno Mk. 4

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The heaven and earth part to make way for a union of manly souls, and the fire burns bright across the internet, torching through your speakers! It's the Call-InFerno! In another audience-participation episode of CommanderCast, Andy and Donovan are joined by some brave Commander players who jump onto the audioscape adventure though the annals of EDH for another variety episode that might result in excessive enlightenment! A blitz-format roundtable with five topics discussed for roughly fifteen minutes each.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E11 | Break All The Rules

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

This week's podcast is full of rules bending, breaking, loopholing, and more. It's CommanderCast S5E11 with guest host Scott Holmes! From the standard roster, Andy is joined by Byron and Sean for another installment in Audience Appreciation Month where we discuss topics generated by the audience.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E10 | The Power of the Intertron

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's CommanderCast S5E10, which is another episode in the continuing audience appreciation month. To keep up appearances, we've asked Andrew Magrini to help spit fire into the Knowledge Pool of Commander players everywhere. Also joining me on the journey of discovery is Scott from the Eh Team and together the three of us discuss a variety of audience-provided topics, including the power of the internet, ways to handle dead card in hand, and more.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E9 | Don’t Wreck Yourself

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's the beginning of audience appreciation month and CommanderCast and to kick things off we have a very active member of the CommanderCast community, Thomas, lending us his silky-smooth New Zealand accent and wealth of Commander-related experience and knowledge. With Brionne and Byron filling out the rest of the team, we plunge into a show of entirely audience-generated topics and answer questions like "are Peek effects worthwhile?" and "why is Gaddock Teeg such a d!ck?" Unfortunately, even we can't answer that last one.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

Insider: Digging up the Dark Ascension Set Review

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It’s that time again! That time when I look back on my set review and see how I stacked up this time around. I really like writing these articles (and believe I was one of the first to begin reviewing my predictions) because it keeps me accountable for the advice I give out. And I take seriously how I review a set.

The goal is that I don’t need a gimmick like a Magic 8-Ball or dice or anything else to make my reviews interesting to read. I want to get in, touch on the important cards, and get out, hopefully making us all some money along the way.

As usual when reviewing, I’ll use Star City Games prices and hit upon the big cards from the set. I also wanted to include some reference charts from Black Lotus Project, but it looks like the site is having some trouble with Dark Ascension cards, so that's not an option for now.

Let’s see how I fared in that endeavor this time around.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed

Then: “This card seems fairly powerful, and is definitely going into my Commander deck, but I don’t see much here at $8, at least for now. It doesn’t really compare favorably to Grave Titan or Massacre Wurm at six mana. Maybe after rotation it will be more playable, but the price is going to come down in the meantime.”

Now: Down to $6, with EDH demand keeping it somewhat up there. Fairly easy call on this one, since it wasn’t likely going to see any Constructed play right away. That may change post-rotation, but as it stands this card presents a cool EDH combo with Triskelion and not much else. Because of that reason, this thing will stay not-free for a long time and would be primed for a spike if it ever saw Constructed play after the Titans rotate.

Vorapede

Then: “Another one that feels too overpriced coming out of the gates at $7.50. The thing is, I do think this card is powerful, and Mono-Green has some absurd creatures at every point along the curve (Strangleroot Geist into Dungrove into Thrun into Vorapede or Garruk). If such a deck were to become a thing, this card could easily jump past $10. That said, pick them up if you can get them cheap, but don’t feel bad trading them away at their current price.”

Now: As expected, this has fallen. What’s not expected is that it’s only to $7. It sees occasional play in Pod, but never as more than a one or two-of. Like all the Mythics on this list, its price will stay inflated with regards to Mythics from other second sets, like Mirrodin Besieged. That said, I’m not sure how much casual appeal this would have, so once it rotates out of Standard its price may not even stay as high long-term as something like Mikaeus.

Falkenrath Aristocrat

Then: “I’m really up in the air on this card. I’m pretty sure it’s going to show up in Standard at some point, but like some of the other cards on this list, I see it going down before it will ever go higher. If/when it drops to $2-3 after not seeing play, it will likely be a solid pickup for next year’s Standard.”

Now: Still going for $6, though there are nearly 100 in stock. It’s possible the price drop on these hasn’t really hit SCG yet, or they’re already pricing in the fact that these won’t be opened for much longer. Either way, you can find these for half that on the trade floor, and there’s no reason to not pick up a few now in preparation for next year.

Havengul Lich

Then: “Overhyped for now. This card is preselling at $15 and that’s too high. Even if it began to see play somewhere, it likely won’t be as a four-of, though its synergy with Heartless Summoning will keep people on this card.

I’m pretty sure this card isn’t going to see much play in the next few months since such a deck seems difficult to tune quickly, and will half in price. At that point we may re-examine based on where the metagame is at.”

Now: Down to $10 as expected. This does provide a sweet combo and all that in Standard, but $15 is hard to maintain for a card barely seeing play. It’s just too expensive to do much with in play to maintain that price. You don’t really want to cast it until you can activate it, but by the time you have that much mana there are far better things to do.

Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells

Then: “Opinions are all over the place on this card, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say it will make an impact on Standard. The only question is when that impact will be felt.

I like what this thing does, as it passes the way-too-important Vapor Snag test. The two life isn’t irrelevant in a field of Delvers pecking at you, and the 2/2 body it leaves behind will be useful.

And that’s if it never transforms. If it does ever flip, it gets real really fast. The power level is there on this card, and its buddy Daybreak Ranger may finally get a chance to shine in the next few months. I do think there will be a dip in this card’s price, but I’m definitely okay with targeting it in trades once it dips below $10.”

Now: Well, this thing dipped to $10, then spiked hard to $30 after the Pro Tour, which I actually called the week before the Tour happened. Hope you went hard on these and let me make you some money, since they go for $25 now and don’t see many signs of slowing down post-rotation.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Then: “And this is where the true chase card of the set comes in.

I’m pretty sure BW tokens is a very real deck (and has felt insane at times in testing), and especially so once Ratchet Bomb rotates (by the way, pick that up this weekend).

He’s $55 right now, and like it or not, our buddy Jace is the closest comparison based on set specifics alone (since Worldwake and Dark Ascension are in the same boat in that regard). Sorin is obviously no Jace (since nothing is), but he compares decently with other four-mana Planeswalker like Ajani Vengeant and Elspeth, Knight Errant. I believe he’s going to be more similar to the former pair than to our much-maligned buddy Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas.

$55 isn’t sustainable long-term, but I don’t see him dropping like a rock either. Liliana still commands a $30 pricetag, and I can’t see Sorin going lower than that anytime soon. I feel like $35-40 is going to be a fair price for this guy in a few months, so keep that in mind if you bust him this weekend. While he isn’t going to sustain higher prices than what he has now, it won’t be all that easy to pick more up later.”

Now: $30 on SCG, and cheaper than Liliana, which is interesting. Most of this guy’s drop came from the fact that everyone showed up with infinite Ratchet Bombs the week after he was printed, which kept his playability down. Since then he has begun to crop up in more and more decks, so it’s good to see my initial price target was fairly close, if not 100% spot-on.

Thaila, Guardian of Thraben

Then: “This is pre-selling at $4, and I think that’s a reasonable price. I can see this being a fairly real card in Standard, and don’t think it falls below $2-3 during its run in Standard. It also has the potential to spike to $6-7 after a good weekend when the set is new, so keep that in mind.

I’m also not sure where this thing fits in among older formats, so keep an eye on that, as it will affect its price (especially foils) heavily.”

Now: Up to $5 at SCG, making an impact just as we expected. It’s made waves in Modern and especially Legacy, where it and Scavenging Ooze have made Maverick the best deck in the format. If you haven’t looked at the Prediction Tracker lately, you’ll see that this is one of my favorite speculation targets right now. Grab these at $3-4 in trade and you’ll likely double your money in six months to a year.

Dungeon Geists

Then: “This card seems to be getting heavily hyped in the last few days. While I can see why, I also don’t think there’s a ton here. Four mana for a creature is a lot in the type of UW Delver deck it would seem to best fit into. They are practically free right now ($1 SCG price), so it can’t hurt to grab a few this weekend, but I don’t suggest going deep.”

Now: $4 on SCG. While I’m glad I didn’t miss this card entirely, I didn’t exactly tell you to go out and buy them all either. I overlooked the interaction with the Captain and I consider this my biggest miss of the set, though I’m glad I picked up a few and had it included.

Geralf's Messenger

Then: “$4 on SCG right now, even though names like Patrick Chapin have advocate for the card. Yes, the mana cost is extremely prohibitive, but people love two things nowadays — Mono-Black and Zombies. This thing is both, not to mention being powerful in its own right.

One weekend is all it takes for this card to jump to $8. I like grabbing these this weekend. What makes this card attractive is that it likely shows up in all the same places Gravecrawler does, but is still $3 cheaper.”

Now: $10 on SCG. Nailed this one and glad I did. I’ve made a lot of money flipping Messengers, and I consider it a good place to continue to put your money in for the next year. Both this and its buddy Gravecrawler will continue to be popular for the next year-and-a-half, and there aren’t going to be many more opened.

Hellrider

Then: “This is what I call reach for red decks. It’s similar to Hero of Oxid Ridge except it doesn’t matter if your guys are blocked. While the upside of the Hero isn’t here for Hellrider, the downside isn’t much either, since it’s so cheap right now ($2 on SCG). Pick these up for a buck this weekend if you can, it’s a pretty low-risk move.”

Now: $3 on SCG, though it was at $4 for a while. Pretty much accurate on this one, and it’s still heavily played in Block, which bodes well for next year.

Grafdigger's Cage

Then: “Absolutely hate this card. I feel like it’s way too wide of a hate card, even if its not as good as people initially thought. It’s still $10 on SCG, but you can find it significantly cheaper elsewhere.

I’m pretty sure this will come down as far as $4-6 during its run in Standard and as people realize it’s not as oppressive as they thought. But one thing that won’t come down much is the foil price of this card, since it apparently tears up the Vintage scene (so I’m told from trusted sources). The foil retails for $30 on SCG, but you can probably snap these up for half that this weekend, since most people aren’t clued into the Vintage scene.”

Now: $4. I remember the week after the set released there was a guy at my LGS adamantly claiming this would stay $8-10 during its run in Standard, even arguing with me when I explained to him that 1) it’s a sideboard card and supply and demand would never be more out of sync than they were at the time, and 2) I do this for a living. Whatever, guess we’ve seen who won that argument. 😉

Interestingly, the foil price is down to $10 as this card has turned out to be even less oppressive than I originally thought. Turns out foil prices on in-print Rares can only go so far, no matter how good it allegedly is for the 10 or so people who play Vintage.

Wrap Up

I have to say I’m very proud of myself for this set review. I didn’t miss anything wildly important, and even though I wasn’t huge on Dungeon Geists, I still made note of it rather than ignoring it completely. The fact that I nailed Messenger, Cage and Huntmaster, three of the most-talked about cards during spoiler season, is just icing on the cake.

We’ll be back before too long with the review for Avacyn Restored, and I hope we do as well then!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Block and Standard Winners

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

There are only moments remaining. The time ticks down on the season of Modern, then begins a shift. We have only limited time before the next season begins and we must be ready for it. PTQ Season will be Standard, and there will be a Block Constructed Pro-Tour, as well as some Block Constructed GPs domestically, at least.

I’ve desleeved my Splinter Twin deck, kept the pieces I need for next year, but the rest? I’m trading it out for Standard staples. And you should do the same.

Block Constructed:

While a format that’s hard to make much money on in paper cards, there is a serious market for this format on MTGO.

Wednesday is the first day post-banning of Intangible Virtue and Lingering Souls. This format was completely dominated by a tokens deck (Either WBr or WBg) and the anti-tokens Jund deck.

Now that the tokens deck is all but gone, the aggro decks will need to run more of a Human centric base, and likely still use Hellrider as a finisher.

I’d also expect a newer G/x aggro deck to appear, possible including Strangleroot Geist. He’s a card I’m going to buy into on MTGO, is currently under a quarter, and could see some quick gains.

Curse of Death’s Hold was a must include against the Tokens decks, and even though the tokens decks are now mostly banned, I expect Curse of Death’s Hold to continue to be the best anti-aggro card, and since the aggro decks aren’t so over powered (but likely still very good), this card may see a surge of popularity.

Also, keep in mind,that the next Pro Tour is Block Constructed, but will include the new Avacyn Restored, so pros may be testing on MTGO now, but it's hard to know what the format will look like without the newest set online.

Standard:

It’s of course the “year-round” format, but it’s also due for a PTQ season starting after the next Pro-Tour in only a few weeks. Not to mention with a large set being added to the mix, we should see some new cards and strategies emerge with still a couple of weeks until spoilers hit the scene.

In the meantime we get to move our trade stock from Modern to Standard. Some of the cards I’ve been targeting are listed below with some explanations, and I’ve updated the Prediction Tracker to reflect these.

Gideon Jura

He is currently a $7 card, which is absurdly low for a Planeswalker that regularly sees play. Sure, he’s been printed twice, but the format is nearly all aggro, and last time that happened a solid U/W control deck popped up (remember Worlds?) to swoop the entire format.

Gideon is a monster against creature decks, even the aggro-control Delver of Secrets // Delver of Secrets deck has issues with one that’s resolved. Especially when PTQ season rolls around and grinders are actually giving attention to Standard, there’s no doubt in my mind a U/W control deck will reemerge.

I think it’s a really strong play to buy into these fairly deep, but do it soon. I’ll be happy to make $5 or more dollars on this, but its ceiling is probably as high as $17. I rarely make a big move on expensive cards like this but it does have all the features I look for in speculation: Low Risk, because it really can’t drop anymore than it already has, even if it sees another reprinting, and High Reward because it could easily double in value or more.

Witchbane Orb

This is more of a “pet-card” speculation, so I’ll add that full disclosure portion first. However, giving yourself hexproof is a pretty desirable card right now. It’s an amazing sideboard option against all of the reach that Zombie and RDW can make use of, and it’s also a great card for shutting down U/B control’s win conditions like Nephalia Drownyard, Karn Liberated, Liliana of the Veil and any discard spells they may have access to in the sideboard.

There’s also the fact that it can destroy any number of Curses attached to you and prevent them from being cast later. This card is currently a bulk rare, so, once again, zero risk because it can’t fall. If it turns out to be one of the Sideboard cards people are scrounging for come PTQ season you’ll be able to leverage that stock at dealer booths or in trades.

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

I’ve missed the mark on this guy before, but man he’s cheap. With few counterspells are floating around lately, and with how easily Tezzeret style control decks chomp up creature decks, I’m surprised we haven’t seen one pop up.

If one does, it quickly gets smashed by other control decks, so if you do move in on this guy, be diligent to move him out as soon as you can if he spikes. I only really see him going up to maybe $15 (and he’s currently $10-11) so may not be worth a big push, but if you currently own any, or you’re able to find good deals in trades, it can’t hurt to stash these.

Until Next Week

I like to use the time between seasons to reorganize my collection and reassess my goals for the next season. As I’m doing this over the next couple of weeks I’ll point out tactics that I find useful as well as any other gems I find in boxes that have been stored away as bulk.

Until next week!
Chad Havas

Brainstorm Brewery #3

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery, hosted by Corbin Hosler, Ryan Bushard and Marcel is up on MTGcast.com! This is the first and only financial podcast out there, and you can listen to it here.

http://www.mtgcast.com/?p=24254

Brainstorm Brewery #3 – The Mavericks of Tron

“Top quality information direct from the source, pure uncut!”
Finance Corner

– Shout Out to @OreoCorp for placing 76th at GP Mexico!!!

– SCG Innovational with Naya Pod winning in standard and Maverick winning in Legacy.  In fact Maverick was 6 of the deck in the top 8 of Legacy open. .

– Scavenging Ooze keeps rising in price as a 3-of in Maverick. Is it time to buy Counterpunch at MSRP or not?

– RG Tron is looking to break Modern with consistent turn 3-4 Karn sealing the game, we talk about its impact and potential banning.

– Please send in card picks for the “What’s It Worth?” section by emailing us.

– Check out the website BrainstormBrewery.com

Brew Pub


– Corbin can't help but want to cast Emrakul as quickly as possible with his Modern deck brew.

– Ryan continues to evolving his RG agro/self-mill block deck, anticipating the changes to the meta with the recent bannings.

– Marcel takes the Werewolves deck from Daily MTG for a spin and is not disappointed.

What?s It Worth?

– A new segment where listeners attempt to stump the hosts as they try to guess the prices of random cards. Please send in your picks for next week via our email.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Free, PodcastTagged , , , , , , , , 1 Comment on Brainstorm Brewery #3

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: How to Find a Bargain

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Dealing in cards on Magic: the Gathering Online Trading League (MOTL) is war. Often times, MOTL is where sharks go to make profits when they are too small or too busy to run an actual store. As a result, it's often quite cutthroat.

Every time I create a new sale list, there will be at least a couple members who will offer lowball prices on already-competitively priced cards. It’s inescapable, and at times frustrating. I will admit that even I fall into this trap on occasion – I become greedy and attempt to find a steal on MOTL in order to garner a tiny bit of profit.

I’ve quickly come to the realization that MOTL is not the optimal venue for finding profitable opportunities.

Being Opportunistic vs. Being Anticipatory

During the earlier rounds of Pro Tour: Honolulu, I observed that Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells was seeing an impressively decent amount of play. What’s more, many players were commenting on how powerful the card was in the given metagame at the time.

That Friday, I decided to take a small risk and purchase three copies of the Huntmaster at around $10 each. I did so in anticipation of the card’s further success. The payoff far exceeded my expectations when eight copies of the card landed in the finals between PV and Kibler. Should the tournament seen an alternate outcome, Huntmasters may never have skyrocketed the way they had.


(Picture courtesy of cardshark.com)

Profiting from these circumstances often lie in our inherent ability to predict cards’ performances. For example, we could have observed a card like Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite combos well with Unburial Rites and is quite the powerhouse even at seven mana. With this conclusion, we decide to purchase a handful of the card while it is still selling on MOTL in the $10 range.

This path usually implies some level of risk. Acquisitions are being made before a given card has proven itself.

These anticipatory pick-ups are often what the writers here at Quiet Speculation like to elaborate upon. Our predictions are usually around cards that have the potential to double in value, often with limited downside.

But I want to take a moment to distinguish between attempting to acquire cards which may increase in price versus acquiring discounted cards below going market price. The former often requires some risk, but quantities are normally available because a card is not yet proven. The latter involves less risk, but usually requires patience and discipline as you sort through countless collections and listings looking for the precious few with opportunity.

While the endeavor of acquiring multiple copies of Past in Flames in anticipation of a price rise (which never happened) was exciting, I often prefer my acquisitions to be driven by opportunistic pickups.

Where I Find These Opportunities

If underpriced cards were readily available, they wouldn’t be underpriced. The economic law of supply and demand ensures the “invisible hand” shifts inventories until the final price is established.

But opportunities do exist. This is due to an array of factors, such as price fluctuations, limited supply or demand markets, aggressive sellers, etc. My intent is not to elaborate upon all of the reasons why opportunities exist – rather, let us operate under the assumption they do and for various reasons.

eBay

I almost never sell items on eBay. Besides the fact that the fees are far too constrictive to profit reliably, the corporation will almost always side with the buyer on any disputes. The only time I’ll resort to eBay to sell is out of desperation, when I’ve realized there are not many buyers for this particular item.

Buying on eBay, however, is one of my favorite pastimes. I can basically name my own price, and if the cards exceed that price I simply don’t buy. It takes a minimal amount of time searching for a particular item and placing a few bids. And while it takes a lot of trial an error, persistence is often rewarded.

For proof, search any card on eBay that has some significant value. Let’s use Underground Sea for example. Take a look at this ended auction:

This was the cheapest tournament legal Underground Sea auction to have ended on eBay in the past few months. Would you have been interested in purchasing it for $66? I sure would have! Sellers are humans and they do make mistakes. When they underprice a card, write a poor description, or take a poor picture, you can profit. But don’t take my word for it – try your own search and browse completed listings. You’d be surprised how wide of a price spread exists on many popular cards. Especially the more obscure ones.

Cardshark

I repeatedly mention this website in my articles. You may begin to think I am part owner – I assure you I am not. I do shop on this site very frequently because of the opportunities that present themselves.

Often times a new seller on Cardshark will want to rapidly accumulate feedback through sales. To do this, they charge sub-eBay prices on a handful of cards. Don’t believe me? Check out this purchase I made just a couple weeks ago:

Pretty reasonable deal, no? I’ve already managed to sell every card on this list for some profit except for the Cascade Bluffs, which I still own.

I’ll admit, this was the largest haul I’ve ever made on this site. But corner cases still exist, especially when prices are on a rapid incline. I originally found this seller because I saw he had two Phyrexian Obliterators for sale at $9.75 and I knew they were on the rise. After browsing the rest of his inventory, I swiftly added over two dozen more cards to my cart! Next time you see some cards on the rise, check out Cardshark. The shipping costs are tough to stomach, but if you can find a large group of underpriced cards from a single seller, you stand to gain handsomely.

MOTL

I began this article stating that MOTL is not an optimal place to find bargains. This is perhaps only half true. It really all depends on your approach… and how much time you have.

There are hundreds of sale lists on MOTL at any given time. A good portion of them are uninteresting to the speculator for a variety of reasons: the list is too small, prices are too high, cards are too obscure, seller’s rules are too strict, etc.

If you have enough patience and endurance, with a sprinkle of luck, you may be the winning person who is first to post on a new sale list with underpriced cards. Then, if the seller doesn’t realize his prices are too low, you may make yourself a nice profitable purchase.

The other 95% of the time you will be forced to navigate through sale lists with average prices and maybe one or two bargains. This leads to the negotiation step, which all sellers respond to differently. Make a reasonable offer to an anxious seller and you may still score a deal. Make a lowball offer to an agitated seller and prepare to be ignored or even lashed out at.

This is the reason I rely more heavily on eBay and Cardshark. I don’t have the fortitude to submit offer after offer with no response. Also, as a frequent seller on MOTL, I easily become frustrated with negotiators. I don’t want to be hypocritical, after all.

Summarizing

In the stock market, there is always a profitable opportunity somewhere, no matter how bullish or bearish Wall Street’s sentiment is. The same is true for the Magic Card market. But in the case of the Magic Card market, there are even zero risk opportunities to acquire underpriced cards. The trick is finding them.

This article touches upon the sources I use most frequently. There are other avenues such as small-scale retailers who don’t update prices often enough, sites like TCG Player and even your LGS. Even dealer booths at larger events can sometimes misprice a card or two.

Depending on how much time you have, there may be good reason to try this strategy. Search through eBay listings, look up some up-and-up cards on Cardshark, and browse a few MOTL lists. This gives you a feel for what cards should sell for and which ones are selling at a bargain. Even if you cannot identify any opportunities today, you will still learn something about the singles market. This can only make you a stronger trader.

I’ll leave you with a few last tips on how I browse eBay for deals:

  • Try looking for awkward quantities of a card. Often times a 2x or 3x auction will end cheaper on a per card basis than a 1x or 4x auction.
  • Don’t be afraid to narrow your search to Buy it Now auctions only. Some of the best deals I’ve found were from sellers who were overeager to sell, and so priced their cards far too low. The Underground Sea example above was a BiN auction.
  • On the other hand, if you're seeking an obscure card, it is definitely best to wait for an auction. Since demand for the obscure card is likely low, there may not be enough bidders around to drive the price up. This could result in a bargain for you!
  • Look for diverse lots. I once picked up an underpriced foil Scalding Tarn simply because the seller was selling it in a lot with a couple non-foils. I also found a lot of rare Innistrad lands that sold at below average prices.

Once you have acquired some inventory at bargain prices, the next logical phase is unloading them for profit. Next week I'll dive deeper into the different approaches you can take when maximizing sales and/or unloading quickly, depending on your goals

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Conspiring with Wort

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

My last couple articles have focused on trying some new things in Commander, mostly involving blue- and black-centered three-color combinations. This week we return to my comfort zone with a sweet red-green deck submitted for review on Twitter.

This particular list was submitted by Uriah (@CMDRDecks on Twitter.) If you haven't checked out his youtube channel, be sure to take some time to do that. There are all manner of interesting decks on there, with new ones coming in every week!

A few weeks ago Uriah asked the twitterverse for help with a Wort, the Raidmother deck that he'd been working on, and it seemed like a great opportunity to spend a few articles looking at the process of refining an already established deck.

The goal here is not necessarily to make the deck more powerful, but rather to tweak it so that it plays out the way you intended. Let's start by taking a look at the list as-is and determining the identifying characteristics that make the deck unique.

[deckbox did="a155" size="small" width="560"]

Typically, Wort decks operate using one or more of three engines: conspired spells, token generation and Warp World. Each of these engines operates differently and requires different setup cards, though there can certainly be some overlap.

This particular deck is pretty token-heavy with a tribal Goblins theme. We'll be sure to stay true to that intent as we modify the deck.

In his email Uriah said that he wanted to push splashy spells that interact well with Wort, which is one of a few things this deck isn't really capable of right now.

Looking at the list, you can see the only spells to conspire are Tooth and Nail, Warp World and various X Spells as the top of the curve. Of those, only the X Spells and Warp World really count, since this deck can pretty much win the game on the spot with a resolved Tooth and Nail for pieces of the Lightning Crafter combo.

For anyone who isn't familiar with this combo, it involves Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, Lightning Crafter and a sacrifice outlet. You need to have both Kiki-Jiki and the sacrifice outlet in play when Lightning Crafter enters the battlefield. Then, with the Champion trigger on the stack, you make a copy of Lightning Crafter. After exiling Kiki-Jiki with the token's Champion trigger, tap the token to shoot something and then sacrifice it. Kiki-Jiki will come back untapped and you can repeat the process for infinite damage.

With that said, let's break down the list by function and make some changes along the way:

The Ever-Important Ramp

As with many Commander decks, the ramp suite is one of the most important parts of the deck. As you've built around the idea of always having access to your commander, you're going to be at a severe disadvantage if you can't get it into play in a timely fashion.

Our focus will be primarily on sorceries and instants over artifact-based ramp. As a rule I don't like artifact ramp much anyway, and in Wort decks the upside for sorceries and instants provides a strong incentive to go that route whenever possible.

Here's the ramp that Uriah is currently running:

Personally I think that this is a good quantity of ramp, but the wrong kind for accomplishing what this deck wants. In general I want efficient spells like Rampant Growth that are going to enable as many turn four Worts as possible. This means a high density of two-mana ramp spells.

The second kind of spell I want more of are those that benefit a lot from Conspire such as Explosive Vegetation and Far Wanderings. These cards are fine on their own, but they become insane when you conspire them and play into the splashy spell theme that Uriah is looking for.

The last kind of ramp spell I want are the ones that interacts well with the other themes of the deck. For Artifact or Equipment decks this might mean efficient mana rocks, but for this one I want cards like Primal Growth and Perilous Forays that can turn your tokens into a more tangible resource when necessary.

The changes to the ramp package are probably the biggest changes I'm making to the deck overall:

Cuts:

Additions:

I'd like to fit more two-mana ramp spells in here, but I think that these give you the most explosive potential early while also letting you go over the top in the late game.

Synergizing with Goblins

Goblins are the major subtheme of this deck, and its the part I'm most excited about!

This theme really ties together all of the strategies that Wort decks tend to push. You have a bunch of creatures that generate Goblin tokens so you can copy your red spells. Those tokens are awesome for spells like Warp World and you have a few giant spells that make a ton of Goblins to round it off.

  • Dragon Fodder
  • Mogg Infestation
  • Goblin Offensive

I think most of these cards carry their weight pretty well. Most of them are reasonably sized (for Goblins, at least) and provide some type of utility effect ranging from marginal to game-breaking. That said, there are two cards that jump out as significantly underpowered, as well as a few that seem to fall just short.

The first card that seems out of place is Ember Hauler. I can see this little guy being awesome if you frequently play against the likes of Azami, Lady of Scrolls or Jhoira of the Ghitu, but I think Gempalm Incinerator will generally be better since it cantrips and scales up over the course of a game.

The second card I'm not a huge fan of is Dragon Fodder, which has a pretty marginal impact. Granted, it sets up Conspire and can itself be conspired later on, but I think that Empty the Warrens will have a much higher upside for a minimal additional investment.

The rest of these cards seem mandatory for this style of deck since they're pretty much all of the best Goblins. I would like to fit in Goblin Lackey to go with Warren Instigator, but I think we'll have to look elsewhere for cuts to make that happen.

One thing that I really like is that there are two creature-based sources of haste for your Goblins in Goblin Warchief and Goblin Chieftain. This means that you have the potential to Warp World into a billion tokens with haste, which seems like exactly the kind of splashy play this deck is all about.

Cuts:

Additions:

Going over the Top

Wort decks generally win the game by resolving the biggest spells at the table multiple times. I'm a big fan of this strategy since it synergizes with the massive amount of mana this style of deck is capable of generating.

Besides the obvious inclusions, there are a few choices here that are specific to the deck's subthemes such as Shared Animosity which goes along with the tribal theme.

The only card I'd be unhappy to play is Mycoloth. He interacts well with both Doubling Season and Parallel Lives, but beyond those he's pretty vulnerable for something that you're going all-in on. I'd rather have a card like Genesis Wave, which is a redundant copy of a Warp World effect as well as one of the most powerful effects in the format.

Cuts:

Additions:

Utility and Card Advantage

This is sort of the "everything else" of the deck, and it covers a lot of bases. You have a ton of creature-based tutors, and ways to abuse enters-the-battlefield abilities. There's some amount of card drawing, sacrifice outlets and answers to different types of permanents.

These cards need to do an awful lot of things. In general they do a pretty good job of it, but there are a few changes I'd make for the sake of personal preference.

The first thing I would change is to cut Hibernation's End. As sweet as this card can be, especially for decks that can go up the chain, I would rather have an effect I have more control over. A good replacement might be Birthing Pod or a one-shot tutor that requires jumping through fewer hoops.

The next change I would make is to swap Chandra Nalaar for Chandra, the Firebrand. If we're looking to amp up the spells then this seems like a pretty simple change to make, since Chandra's power scales directly with that of the spells you're copying.

Next, I'd cut the expensive cards that provide narrow effects (Into the Maw of Hell) and the cards which require extra support to function (Master of the Wild Hunt). I'd also cut Swiftfoot Boots and Lightning Greaves since the deck has enough ramp and sacrifice outlets to protect yourself from targeted effects and recast Wort without too much trouble.

With those four slots freed up we can add Anarchist for additional recursion and to power up Heat Shimmer and Warp World. Next, I would add the Goblin Lackey I was trying to fit in earlier.

The last two slots go to Regrowth and Vengeful Rebirth, which will give you some inevitability in the late game. If the game goes long enough, you can conspire one Regrowth effect to recur a good spell and a second Regrowth. This lets you create a game state where you never run out of gas, one of the problems these decks generally struggle with.

The last three cards I want to fit into the deck are Reiterate, Electropotence and Hull Breach. Reiterate is a flexible card that generates card advantage and gives you access to effects that Red typically does not have. It is especially powerful in a ramp-heavy deck.

Electropotence is a card that I think is really good in conjunction with the Genesis Wave and Warp World effects that this deck is built around. These let you control the board after you resolve one of these effects, or just kill someone if you can put enough Goblin tokens into play at one time.

Lastly, Hull Breach is an effect this deck is lacking. There are a ton of ways to answer artifacts, but not so many to deal with problematic enchantments.

In order to make space for these three cards I would probably cut Green Sun's Zenith, Fatal Frenzy and Recoup. Recoup is outclassed by the interactions between multiple [card Regrowth]Regrowths[/card], Fatal Frenzy seems out of place, and Green Suns Zenith has surprisingly few targets.

Cuts:

Additions:

Manabase

And finally, let's take a look at the land situation:

The only thing I don't like about this manabase is the amount of colorless and "enters the battlefield tapped" lands. Neither of these were as much of a problem before the ramp suite was changed from artifacts to green sorceries. If we just change a few of these lands to basic forests everything should be ready to go.

Cuts:

Additions:

With that, the final list I'd have looks like this:

[deckbox did="a154" size="small" width="560"]

I hope that Uriah gets a chance to try out some of these suggestions and lets me know how they work out. Overall I think this is an interesting direction to take Wort in. The Goblin theme is an interesting deck-building constraint, and it seems like a ton of fun to play with. I'm pretty excited to hear how it turns out!

Next week I continue digging through my email and take a look at a Dralnu, Lich Lord deck. Dralnu is one of my favorite Commanders and was actually one of the first decks that I built, so I'm excited to give him a fresh look with some of the new cards from recent sets!

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com

@cag5383 on Twitter

The Return of the Prediction Tracker

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello everyone! I’m stepping out from behind the usual confines of the Insider zone to bring you a very important announcement regarding the future of Quiet Speculation and some of our very best features.

As you may be aware, a while back (almost a year ago, time has certainly flown), I introduced the Prediction Tracker, an idea I dreamed up after months of raging about the quality of some of the articles I read. I was tired of reading articles about how the author made the most amazing and perfectly correct call on [CARDNAME], while simultaneously ignoring the cards they said would spike and instead faded into obscurity.

With very few people willing to delve back into old articles and point out these incorrect calls while others would blindly support a writer, I decided there had to be a better way to keep people accountable.

Enter the Prediction Tracker.

Of course, in its final evolved form (Stage 2 even), the Tracker did so much more than that. It allowed an easy way to contributors to collaborate on card speculating, and provided all of that information in an easy-to-read format for readers of Quiet Speculation. We made some very public and correct calls on the Tracker, including the rise of Consecrated Sphinx and Dark Confidant, which made everyone involved a ton of cash. In no time at all, my little idea to add accountability to the financial world had quickly become a tool to make all of us hundreds of dollars from Magic, and needless to say it was one of our most popular features.

The problem is that, as a startup, we at Quiet Speculation have lots of good ideas but not always the technical expertise to make it work, and the Tracker showed our limits when we hit our input limit a few months later. We made the best of the tools we had, but the bottom line is that it simply grew too big.

At that point, the decision was made to take the current model of the Tracker down while QS founder Kelly Reid worked on a new version, one he built himself while teaching himself how to program. From there, we hoped the new version would roll out soon, but it wasn’t able to happen as quickly as we had hoped. That said, there is a very good reason for this, and I’ll let Kelly explain in his own words.

“Here's what you need to know:

We have spent the last few months working with Ross Allen, who is the guy behind Black Lotus Project. He'll be developing a new generation of our software, one which will add real-time pricing capability to our site.  We developed a rudimentary new prediction tracker, but rather than release it, we want to let Ross do his thing.  He's a professional, a front-end developer for airbnb.com <http://airbnb.com> , and wrote the ticker that appears on our site.

Our development has hit a bunch of small speed bumps, the kind that every little startup goes through, and we decided that until we have a Ross' software working, we wanted to have something online since we got so many requests. We're excited about what he's working on and appreciate the patience as we learn and grow as a young company!”

As you might have gathered, we have decided to do what we can with what we have while Ross works on developing our software on a more professional level. I’ve seen the very early stages of this, and I can tell you it’s some pretty awesome stuff. There isn’t a ready-to-announce timeline yet on the stuff he and Kelly are working on, but there is something else we can do.

That’s right, the Prediction Tracker is back.

You can always find the Tracker up at https://www.quietspeculation.com/predictions/. In addition, at the top of our homepage under the Prediction Tracker dropdown you can always click on “This week’s Tracker” to find the above link.

Bringing it back

I’ve known for a little while that it was best to get something up while the new Tracker is being developed. I also knew that we needed to address some of the problems of the old Tracker.

The biggest issue we had is that we had too many people inputting too many cards. We don’t need a pages-long list of every card that might someday find a home; we need an easy-to-access page that will let readers know what we are targeting personally.

I feel like we’ve addressed that concern by keeping the contributor list a bit tighter (though we’ll likely be adding 1-2 people over the next few months), and asking each contributor to keep the number of cards they include down to the calls they feel most strongly about.

As always, let me stress that we’re not some faceless corporation rolling out these features. We’re Magic players and traders just like you working hard to make Quiet Speculation the best it can be, and your feedback is vital to that. Let me know what you think about the Tracker and any ways it can be improved. You can reach me through the comment section here, inside our forums or on Twitter @Chosler88.

I’m as excited as all of you for the next phase in Quiet Speculation’s evolution, and I hope you all enjoy the Prediction Tracker and get as much out of it as I do!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Free, SpecialTagged , 4 Comments on The Return of the Prediction Tracker

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Sealed at Grand Prix Nashville

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Although my articles usually focus on Standard, this week I'm taking a break to talk about Sealed. Sealed is becoming more and more important. In addition to the awesome and ever-present Prerelease and Sealed PTQ season, we are starting to see more and more Limited Grand Prix.

Sealed always has been (and probably will be) my favorite format. I love the even playing field that six unopened packs puts all the players on. Would you rather compete against professionals with decks each of you built, or with a random assortment of cards? Personally, I prefer the latter.

In addition, Sealed stays fresh and interesting through repeated play. Every sealed event you enter presents a new deck-building puzzle to solve. With most sealed pools there are multiple decks that can be built. Each player sees the pool differently and it is quite interesting to talk about the merits and flaws of different options.

This weekend I traveled with some friends down to Nashville, Tennessee for a sealed Grand Prix. The trip was going to be a long one, nine hours down and nine hours back. But for a sealed Grand Prix it was definitely going to be worth it and I was super excited.

Some of my friends wonder how I can afford to travel so much. To begin with, I keep costs really low by splitting the hotel and gas with two or three other people. If you have not road tripped for Magic before, I definitely recommend giving it a try. Its not as expensive as it may seem and its always a blast! (As for ways to pass the time, I highly recommend Magic-themed Twenty Questions.)

Building the Pool

My sealed pool for Day One was interesting and difficult to build, which is actually what inspired me to write this article in the first place. I used up almost all the allotted time to settle on the final build and agonized during my bye over whether I made the right decision or not.

Take a look at what I opened:

Untitled Deck

White

1 Avacynian Priest
1 Break of Day
1 Chapel Geist
1 Curse of Exhaustion
1 Dearly Departed
1 Elgaud Inquisitor
1 Gavony Ironwright
1 Moment of Heroism
1 Niblis of the Mist
1 Silverchase Fox
1 Smite the Monstrous
1 Thraben Doomsayer
1 Unruly Mob

Blue

2 Armored Skaab
1 Chant of the Skifsang
1 Dissipate
1 Dream Twist
1 Griptide
1 Ludevics Test Subject
1 Moon Heron
1 Mystic Retrieval
1 Nephalia Seakite
1 Saving Grasp
1 Silent Departure
1 Stitchers Apprentice

Black

1 Abattoir Ghoul
2 Black Cat
1 Curse of Thirst
1 Farbog Boneflinger
1 Gruesome Deformity
1 Highborn Ghoul
1 Reap the Seagraf
1 Skeletal Grimace
2 Spiteful Shadows
1 Stromkirk Patrol
1 Tragic Slip

Red

1 Desperate Ravings
2 Erdwal Ripper
1 Fires of Undeath
1 Hinterland Hermit
1 Increasing Vengeance
2 Kessig Wolf
1 Kruin Outlaw
1 Markov Warlord
2 Night Revelers
1 Rage Thrower
1 Rolling Temblor
1 Scorch the Fields

Green

1 Avacyns Pilgrim
1 Dawntreader Elk
1 Festerhide Boar
1 Gatstaf Shepherd
1 Grave Bramble
1 Hollowhenge Beast
1 Hunger of the Howlpack
1 Kessig Recluse
1 Lambholt Elder
1 Orchard Spirit
1 Scorned Villager
1 Travel Preparations
1 Village Survivors
1 Wild Hunger

Multicolored

1 Immerwolf

Artifacts

1 Blazing Torch
1 Geistcatchers Rig
1 Ghoulcallers Bell
1 Runechanters Pike
1 Sharpened Pitchfork
1 Wooden Stake

Land

2 Haunted Fengraf

Looking over the sealed pool once more, I realize now that there are probably a lot more possible builds than I thought of in Nashville. There is definitely a lot going on in these six packs so I'll take a moment to break down how I approached it.

A First Pass

The first thing I register is the artifacts. This is important because it lets me see which cards I am most likely playing in any deck I build.

These cards are not set in stone, but many times there are a few I know I'll play for sure. Blazing Torch and Geistcatchers Rig are two such cards, as they are excellent removal. Whatever deck I play, these two cards are almost certainly making the cut.

Scanning through the colors, I was immediately drawn to red.

At the Innistrad Prerelease, I had Kruin Outlaw in my deck and it was very hard for players to deal with. Add Hellrider and Fires of Undeath to the mix and I was on board. Red had some other good creatures like Rage Thrower and Markov Warlord which are both good at finishing off opponents.

I could pair the red cards with green. This allows me to play Wild Hunger and Immerwolf, who will pump a large number of my creatures.

Avacyns Pilgrim provides acceleration and enables the flashback on Travel Preparations. With Dawntreader Elk and Evolving Wilds, I can even splash black for the second half of Fires of Undeath and maybe even Tragic Slip and Farbog Boneflinger.

Perhaps something like this:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Avacyns Pilgrim
1 Scorned Villager
1 Gatstaf Shepherd
1 Dawntreader Elk
1 Hinterland Hermit
1 Orchard Spirit
1 Lambholt Elder
1 Kruin Outlaw
2 Kessig Wolf
1 Immerwolf
1 Kessig Recluse
1 Festerhide Boar
1 Village Survivors
1 Farbog Boneflinger
1 Rage Thrower
1 Geistcatchers Rig

Spells

1 Blazing Torch
1 Tragic Slip
1 Fires of Undeath
1 Travel Preparations
1 Wild Hunger

This deck is not bad and I would not fault you for playing it. There will be some games that you win off of a fast start your opponent cannot recover from. However, this version did not sit well with me as it felt like most of the cards were underpowered. Sure, the two red rares were amazing but beyond that it felt lackluster.

My final decision to play a different deck was based on two things.

The first reason I did not play this version is a matter of personal preference. Over a long event like a Grand Prix or Star City 5k, I prefer a deck that is going to be consistent. I could have made the deck's manabase more consistent by cutting Black but I thought the resulting deck would be too low in power.

The second reason was the lack of more removal spells like Geistflame and Brimstone Volley. Without lots of removal this deck risks stalling out. Few of your creatures have evasion and most of them are easily answered by any removal spell or a three-toughness creature. You can't just rely on drawing Gatstaf Shepherd and Kruin Outlaw every game.

Rage Thrower helps out in this regard by making blocking difficult but he isn't really enough to fix the problem by himself. Ultimately I felt that this deck wasn't quite there, but even with just one more piece of removal I probably would have played it.

Back to the Drawing Board

So what did I end up doing? Why, playing none of those colors of course.

My white cards had synergy, evasion, removal and some really powerful spells. Thraben Doomsayer in particular was very powerful and every game I untapped with him I won. Usually I got three tokens out of him before he died. His Fateful Hour ability never came up but I assume that when it does you just win the game.

Once I decided to play white I had to determine which color to pair with it. At first, I wanted to risk the perils of an insane manabase and play White-Red-Black.

Think about Thraben Doomsayer and Hellrider in the same deck! Now add a couple other double-white and double-red spells and some Black mana to flashback Fires of Undeath. When the mana worked I most likely would have won, but I'm pretty sure I would have lost more games to bad mana than I was willing to give up.

Another reason to stick to two colors in this format is the often overlooked Haunted Fengraf. This land impressed me quite a bit and I plan on playing it more in the future.

In a two color deck, one colorless land will not significantly hinder your ability to play your spells. As it doesn't take up a spell slot, this makes the raise dead effect essentially "free".

In my deck that meant getting back some juicy targets like Avacynian Priest, Fiend Hunter, and Thraben Doomsayer. Being able to return high impact cards like these drastically increases the power level of your deck. You do have some control over when to fire it off as well, so if necessary you can pop it early to guarantee it gets your best creature.

In light of all this I took a look at the Blue. Initially I had dismissed blue as unplayable because there were not enough cards. But when building a sealed deck it's important to reexamine the cards available to you and consider each of your options carefully.

Blue may not have been deep, but it did have half a dozen excellent cards and would also allow me to play Drogskol Captain. Hmm, so I have spirits to synergize with the captain and humans to complete the loop with Dearly Departed. Blue-White tempo had been quite good to me in this format and I wondered if I could make it work.

I laid the following list out on my table and stared at it deep in thought for a full five minutes.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Unruly Mob
1 Silverchase Fox
1 Avacynian Priest
1 Ludevics Test Subject
1 Stitchers Apprentice
1 Gavony Ironwright
1 Chapel Geist
1 Thraben Doomsayer
1 Niblis of the Mist
1 Elgaud Inquisitor
1 Nephalia Seakite
1 Moon Heron
1 Dearly Departed
1 Geistcatchers Rig

Spells

1 Blazing Torch
1 Silent Departure
1 Break of Day
1 Moment of Heroism
1 Chant of the Skifsang
1 Griptide
1 Smite the Monstrous

Land

1 Haunted Fengraf

Sideboard

1 Dissipate
1 Saving Grasp

What did this deck do well? It had enough evasion and removal to form a solid base. As for bombs, Dearly Departed, Thraben Doomsayer, and Ludevics Test Subject would definitely win some games on their own.

The deck's curve is also quite good. There are enough creatures at each mana cost to impact every turn of the game. Mana curve is extremely important to me in this format and I value it above almost anything else. There were even relevant sideboard cards in Dissipate, Ray of Revelation, and Saving Grasp.

The Moment of Truth

I made my final decision to play the Blue-White deck with one minute remaining in the build time. After losing the first round, I began to have reservations about my build, but the rest of the tournament would prove that I made the right decision.

My first loss was ultimately out of my control. I was well in control in game one when I noticed my opponent counting something. I assumed he was trying to figure out how to kill me with some combat trick but I knew he could not.

What he was actually counting turned out to be the cards in play, in my hand and in my graveyard. Soon after that I lost to the dumbest card printed in a long time, Increasing Confusion. Losing to that card felt like losing to Phage the Untouchable. It was dirty and cheap and I really would prefer it hadn't been printed.

I lost game two because I failed to draw a third land at any point in the game after keeping a two-lander.

As I said above, the rest of the day went better and validated my deck choice. The only other round I lost was in three pretty close games against an Esper deck (which turned out to be a common way to build your sealed deck.) It wasn't much of a blowout, and a small change in any of the games could have easily swung the match.

Wrapping Up

Overall the deck performed well and gave me a lot of room to outplay my opponents. There were a lot of decisions involving different lines of play and the deck could switch between offensive and defensive very easily. I am glad I ended up playing this version as I do not think I would have done as well with the other builds.

Unfortunately Day Two did not go as well. My draft was one of those corner-cases involving crazy packs. For instance, I remember one of the packs in particular messed things up because it had literally eight red cards. Oddities like that seem to happen a lot in this block and I don't like how it messes up drafts.

I hope you enjoyed my Limited adventure as much as I did. Feel free to post your build of my pool below and comment on mine. What would you have done differently? Would you have played the same deck I did?

Until next time,

Unleash the Force on Limited!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: The System, Part One: Learning The Real Price of Cards

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Today's article is both revolutionary and simple in its premise. It introduces you to a pricing model that sophisticated financial markets use, but the fundamentals are easily understandable. Kelly Reid and I have worked on getting better at what we're calling The System when we make runs on stores, trade and speculate on the next upcoming cards, and today, we are going to start sharing it with you - our Insiders. We have already made hundreds of dollars on this, but we can't make all the money there is to be made in this, since we don't have infinite cash to throw at it. That's why we're sharing it.

This is a principle that's stupidly simple and you might be inclined to say "Doug, why are you wasting our time with this? This is self-evident!" The System is designed to mitigate the worst enemy that a speculator faces: his own fear.

It's your fear that holds you back from hitting "buy" when you get an email from us saying "buy Olivia Voldaren" when she's $3, and it's fear that makes you distrust your own gut instincts about the next hot card. That fear feeds into a loop where you see what would have happened if you'd trusted yourself and you feel even worse that you didn't go for the good tip. Worse, you might start over-correcting and throwing money around.

The System depends on a few central maxims, and I am going to share what Kelly and I have discovered with you.

The real price of a card is the difference between what you buy it for and what you can sell it for.

This is the core principle and all others flow from it. When a currency trader considers buying British pounds or Icelandic Krona (don't!), he must consider that the transactional costs - dealer fees, conversions, credit card processing, etc., add friction to the exchange. If he turns dollars into pounds and back all day at the same exchange rate, he will go poor - he'll lose 1% or more each time, seeing his fortune shrink. The cost of a dollar, to our currency trader, is the difference between what he can buy it for - $1.00, and the price he can sell it for, after all is accounted for - $0.98, let's say. If our trader gets one dollar and the markets don't shift at all, he's risked 2% of his investment. All he needs to see is the dollar rise to cover that 2% and he's broken even. He just needs to see it rise another penny to see a profit.

People who trade on the foreign exchange know this principle well, and they use it to borrow vast sums of money to leverage against the market. Our trader borrows $10,000 to put into the bet on the dollar, knowing that if he's really only risking $200 at the outset. The cash inlay is big, but the risk is miniscule.

ForEx traders can run into big problems when the market shifts, but Magic cards are relatively stable in value over days. When you look at speculating on a card, you can depend on being able to resell it to dealers for the approximate value that you trusted when you bought it, and that price can hold up for about a week.

Let's look at an example. Kelly and I have been bragging on calling Huntmaster of the Fells early on. Why not? We've heard from multiple readers that the tip paid for their entire year of QS Insider. When we called it, Huntmaster was $11.50, which is a lot of cash. However, dealers were buying it for $9. If we bought every Huntmaster we could and immediately sold them, we'd only lose $2.50! The difference between the buy/sell price was about 21%. That means that if it went up to where playable Mythics usually go, we would see a big profit. Even if we had to sell them in a week or two at a loss, we'd only lose 20% of our investment. Of course, you know what happened to Huntmaster's price (and we seamlessly sold them back to the same dealers later in the week for $20 apiece), but let's look at something else that's a little more obscure.

Whipflare was another call from that same weekend. Whipflare was a decent sideboard card that shone in the playoff of the Pro Tour. It sold at 25 cents, but dealers were buying it for 15 cents. That means that we were only risking 10 cents on the card, not 25 cents - Whipflares would not suddenly be worth absolutely zero. The buy/sell margin was much bigger - 40% - but remember, we are looking at pennies of investment here. It pays to think big when you're looking at a card that only needs to make 25 cents to double up on.

With The System in mind, Kelly and I poured a lot of money into Whipflare and we should have pumped much more in than we did. We ended up buying 98 copies - an astronomical amount. Thanks to TCGPlayer for not canceling our orders! Of course, we "smurfed" our orders like a good money launderer would - buying twenty here and twelve there. Combined with other calls we were making, the shipping was manageable. But those 98 copies doubled in value, so our $25 investment ($15 risk) turned into $50. I know it looks like we doubled up, but we really tripled - we only put $15 on the line, after all. If we didn't keep the buy/sell margin in mind, we would have thought that Whipflares sold for zero to a dealer and not risked the 25 cents apiece. Looking it up, seeing that it had a buy price from someone, meant that the card was much less risky than it normally appeared.

Here's a thought experiment: what if I told you to pick up an old Arabian Nights card that's currently $50? Do you balk at that price? Would it change your mind if dealers bought it for $40? Now all you need to see is your card rise a little in value - a $10 value change on buylists - and you'd cover your cost. You're paying $10 to see if this bet pays off - not $50.

The size of your war chest dictates whether you make "some" money or "lots of" money.

I'll admit that my last experiment involved a little bit of cheating on my part. I assumed that you had hundreds or thousands in your trading account to get that Elephant Graveyard I was telling you about. We all take our war chest into speculative battle, full of gold and treasure. The bigger your initial amount, the more you can make. I have a finite amount, though, and so do you. Another big element of The System is to identify the smallest margins and capitalize on those, since you can only have so much money wrapped into your cards at any point.

Though you're dealing on margin risk and not actual cost, you would need $5,000 in hand to risk only $1,000 on our Huntmasters. I like to think of this as kind of like casinos that will only let you gamble on the upper floors when they know the size of your bank account, even though you're not risking the whole account that night. When you're looking at rent money vs. speculative money, you should always pay what you have to, first, but to make big profits with The System, you'll need to release your idea of absolute costs and embrace only the risk cost. It may mean putting $300 in where you only put $30 in before. After all, those Dungeon Geists that we told you to buy at fifty cents could sell to a dealer for half their price already... It may mean that you have forty copies of those geists instead of the two playsets you were thinking of buying. It may result in the fact that you made $120 instead of $20, all while only risking $12.50.

Don't risk more than 50% in a speculation.

Magic speculation can bring a lot of profits, but it can also make your money evaporate quickly if you put your money in cards that you cannot resell. The cards with the smallest margins are the most playable cards. That's because a dealer has both a demand for the cards and supply issues in making sure that they have enough to sell the customer. They'll happily buy a $10 card for $7.50 if they know they can make 25% on it all day long. They won't pay as much for something casually-popular but lightly played (so a high markup, like Gilded Lotus). If your card costs $1.00 but won't sell for anything above bulk, it'll only break your heart. You'll have enough opportunities, with cards like Whipflare, Vapor Snare, Dungeon Geists and Skirsdag High Priest, to risk only a little and stand to make quite a bit.

I'm happy to answer questions posted below, and I'm sure that Kelly will chime in, too. Until next week (with more examples of The System at work!)

-Doug Linn

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Special4 Comments on Insider: The System, Part One: Learning The Real Price of Cards

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: Tales from the Floor – GP Nashville

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I’m back from Grand Prix: Nashville, and I have it say it was quite the experience. I want to take you through my weekend (a trading tournament report, if you will) and offer some input directly from the trading floor.

Friday

After convincing my carmates to leave Thursday at midnight, we started the 11-hour drive to Nashville from Norman, Oklahoma.

Nothing of note happened, unless you count the fact that I drank two Red Bull and my body couldn’t handle it since I normally don’t drink caffeine. I was still exhausted since as I began the 4 a.m. – 8 a.m. driving shift, but my body was all twitchy. Not really the most pleasant experience of my life.

But we did eventually make it into the Country Music Capital of the World (very exciting for me), and promptly found out that the car that had left some seven hours before us had stopped for the night, so we couldn’t actually get into where we were staying in Nashville, which turned out to be a pair of quaint cottages about a half-hour from the event site.

While we did get a very favorable price on the rooms, I can’t say I recommend such a plan. I’ve never regretted paying more to be walking distance from the event site, and that would have held true for last weekend as well.

Anyway, after getting some pretty decent barbeque for lunch, we talked of going to a distillery to kill time, but since the closest open one was another hour’s drive, we passed and settled for a trip to the liquor store (don’t worry, this isn’t going to devolve into a “we got drunk and acted dumb and we’re so cool! Report like some do).

On site, I had a few friends with byes go to dreamcrush in the grinders just for fun while I took to the trade tables. As expected, Geralf's Messenger and Gravecrawler were trading hot, and I targeted those.

The other important thing I did on Friday is something I suggest any trader do at a large event. I went to every dealer booth in the room and asked for a buylist. This allows you to spot anything that you can get a particularly good price for.

My entire trading strategy at events like this where I am planning to cash out is to find a few target cards for the weekend that I know are being undervalued on the trade floor. For last weekend it was Black Suns Zenith, which was being bought on site for $4, and Birds of Paradise, which could be sold for $2 to dealers.

Considering that was the price most people traded them at, you can see how easy it is to quickly turn trades into cash, and it’s something you can do just by spending a few minutes picking up buylists from around the room.

Saturday

Little did I know Friday was going to be my best day. I had never attended a Friday at a GP before, and from now on I won’t miss one. It was my best trading day, since many traders weren’t yet on the floor and people hadn’t cashed out to dealers yet.

By Round 3 on Saturday the floor was infested with sharks and grinders. And while a good many of them are my friends (and/or readers of this column) and I enjoyed getting to hang out with everyone, it certainly makes it more difficult for each of us to profit on the day. Contrast this with last weekend at SCG Dallas, where I had the run of the floor and had an insanely good weekend.

Anyway, I appreciated meeting everyone who introduced themselves to me and I hope you all had a good as time hanging out as I did. There’s little better than just shooting the sh!t with a group of like-minded traders at a big event, and Nashville was no different.

Another card that jumped out to me was how hot Phantasmal Image was. You might think that since it’s been such an in-demand card for a few months now it would cut down on the number of people looking for it (like Hero of Bladehold, which is still pricy but not often inquired about), but that was the opposite of true. Everyone wanted Images in Nashville, and despite my best attempts to hold onto some for both my Modern Merfolk deck and the local shop owner at home, I couldn’t turn down people giving $17 in trades for them.

Speaking of things I traded at $17, hello Misty Rainforest. You all know of my current project with fetchlands, but again, it’s tough to turn down someone offering to trade for Mistys at $17 when I know I picked them all up at $8. I still have a very sizable fetchland collection, but it’s something I’ll have to wait a few months on to begin picking back up cheaply after Modern season is over.

Sunday

Here’s my one comical tale from the weekend. At our cottages we had three rooms. After sleeping in the “Violet Room” on Friday night, I came back late Saturday to find one of my roomates who was playing in Day 2 (Will Craddock, who Top 16’ed) had stolen my bed.

Whatever, right? I figured I’d just grab a blanket and crash on the floor whenever I went to sleep, which turned out to be a few hours later after I finished crushing everyone playing 60-card casual with my Master Transmuter deck. Of course I ended up not being able to find a blanket and how to get into a tiny bed with another man for the night, which wasn’t really on my to-do list for the weekend.

The real trouble came in the morning. The people in my cottage were all heading out but I was riding with the group from next door, leaving later. This allowed me some sleep-in time, which is another big advantage to being a trader and not a player. Of course, it absolutely backfired in this case.

Upon rolling out of bed I find that the Violet Room is locked from the inside, stranding all of my belongings inside. This is obviously annoying but not the end of the world. I call the group that left, who tell me they don’t have an extra key and don’t have time to double back. I then call the groundskeeper, who despite allegedly being available “anytime” is not answering his phone. I then went up the chain to the owner whose number was on the sign with the friendly reminder “just a few blocks away!”

Of course she didn’t answer either, which led to half an hour of me in my pajamas without a shirt just chilling on the ol’ porch swing in front of my 1800s cottage. I’m sure it would have made for quite the picture.

Finally the owner calls me back and sends me on what I can only describe as a scavenger hunt. She directs me over the phone to her office, where I am to start digging through her old bills to find a bag of keys. Upon finding said bag of keys, I tell her there isn’t one labeled what I need only to hear “Yeah, I didn’t think we had one.”

She then tells me to pick up the bag of keys to the house next door and try them, since one of them might have the same lock and work. 20 keys later, I find the perfect fit and am finally able to put on a shirt. Of course everyone found this entire situation hilarious but me, since I was more interested in murdering whoever closed the door behind them.

Finally back on site, I get a few more trades in but mostly hang out with the crew and help Kelly look for his lost Commander deck, which we were unable to find. He did, however, locate when he got back home.

But on a more important note, we were able to out a con artist and thief at the event and have him thrown out and banned from all future events. Ryan and I talk about “bulk rare guy” more in our most recent podcast of Brainstorm Brewery here, and I can assure you there is no measure too harsh to get people like this driven from our community.

When I finally cashed out at the end of the day, my binder was back to about where it was before Dallas, only now I had two more mint condition dual lands in it and a cool $800 in my pocket. After all expenses for the two weekends, including all food and the $100+ steakhouse we went to on Saturday, I profited somewhere between $500 and $600, which is solid for a pair of weekends spent hanging out with friends.

It’s so great to be able to not only pay for your hobby but also for the pleasure of hanging out with old friends and meeting new ones at large events like Grand Prix. I’m not sure when I’ll next make it to a big event, since I’m getting married in about two months, but I hope to see you all back out on the trade floor again as soon as possible!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation