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The spoilers keep getting better! Devoid decks could become a real force in Modern and Standard, while efficient spells like Oath of Nissa have people comparing the card to certain banned cantrips. Dig in this week with the cast as we reflect on the financial future of OGW.
All of our contact information for the cast is here.
Despite some high-profile StarCityGames showdowns, a handful of large Italian and Japanese tournaments, and a regular spattering of mid-size regional events, December was a relatively quiet month for Modern. We only tracked 55 total paper events in the month, down almost 50% from both our November and October datasets. Collection was much more robust on the MTGO side, where we saw 55 events, almost 500 decks, and the biggest MTGO sample since Wizards upended the online community with its summer Daily and Premier changes. The MTGO data even included both a MOCS and a Premier, better-attended venues that fittingly saw December's breakout Tier 1 performer in their Top 8s. But, spoiler alert, more on Mr. Siege Rhino later...
Don't know what else to play or prepare against? There's always Twin. December saw UR Twin return as the frontrunning weapon of choice for blue mages who want to compete against linear strategies. The URx Twin collective remains primarily split between UR Twin (6.2%) and Grixis Twin (dropping slightly from November to 3.8%). Jeskai (up to 1.5% after 
It's no coincidence 
Jund. To some extent, this reversal is an odd turn. Jund is much better against the rising Tron decks than its BGW alternative: Jund gets more from Dark Confidant plus Kolaghan's Command-recurred Fulminators than Abzan gets from Path to Exile trumping Lightning Bolt. This suggests there are more pressing metagame influences driving Abzan's surge than just Tron. The first of these appears to be Jund itself. Abzan is known for beating up its older sibling, and with players growing complacent around Jund's foothold, it was high time Abzan struck back. A second reason is Lingering Souls, which wrecks Jund, grind-oriented Grixis, and Twin players who are accustomed to the 50-50 slogfest against BGx. Add Eldrazi and Affinity to the picture, the former eating Bolts and Commands for breakfast and the latter succumbing to Stony Silence, and it's no wonder Abzan is edging in on Jund's Tier 1 territory.
Eldrazi is the real deal. Is it as broken as many online ban maniacs and Chicken Littles attest? Certainly not in its current form, which many of those detractors would know if they tested before they typed. Is it still a powerful deck with strong matchups and a natural format niche? Better bet your foil Eye of Ugins it. The midrange/ramp hybrid has all the markings of a Tier 2 regular and I fully expect to see it in multiple metagame updates throughout 2016. It might even ascend to Tier 1, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. As 
to stop those Blight Herders, then hover over the Eldrazi again just to save yourself the tournament embarrassment. From a deck perspective, you need to know what Eldrazi beats and what Eldrazi fears. Jund, Abzan, and Grixis are food for the hungry-hungry processors. Same with anything that relies too heavily on graveyards, or decks that get choked out by the turn two Wasteland Strangler blowout. On the other 
Tier 1 for every update of 2015, and has been the best aggro deck in every period since August. That's a five month reign, despite players knowing exactly what Affinity would do and packing the sideboard cards to handle it. Despite that, Affinity still managed to be on top. Not so with Burn. The red deck's fortunes have risen and fallen as players prepare for it with more impactful sideboard cards and shifting game plans. There are certainly metagames where Burn will be better than Affinity, but they are very rare and probably very isolated. As a whole, Affinity's power level will always keep it a head above the Lava Spikers. Also, somewhat miraculously, Affinity managed to keep this spot without ever reaching toxic metagame shares. It only exceeded 10% of the format once and hasn't been higher than that since August. This shows the deck is both powerful but also containable, a true format pillar we should always expect.
decks (whether competing Twin types, Jund vs. Abzan, or the countless Burn hybrids), but these fundamental strategies are still the defining drivers in Modern. I don't see this changing in 2016, which sounds more conservative than it is. Wrapped up in this prediction is a guess at no major bans aimed at these decks, no major new cards to dethrone them, and no periods of time where all of them aren't viable at major events. Non-rotating formats depend on these reliable pillars, and 2016 should be a year where we can count on playing with them and against them. If Wizards undermines this with the January 18 announcement, their change in tone will have reverberations well beyond my prediction accuracy rate. I'm banking against it though.
should play it with me. As we've seen over the past weeks, Modern is uniquely vulnerable to big-mana strategies that depend on zany nonbasics. Amulet Bloom continues to rampage its way onto the banlist (you can bet I'll be giving you a data-driven earful on that deck soon), Tron was the 
don't have last year's budget). It's almost impossible to not get caught up in the 24-7 Modern news cycle that encourages rampant speculation, hyperbolic deck assessments, and getting ahead of the next big thing. I certainly bought a ticket to hypeland in 2015. Grishoalbrand, the return of Bubble Hulk, and the rise of Blood Moon all prodded me to whip out the credit card and pour dollars into Magic's secondary market. At least I stayed clear of the Sedge Sliver euphoria. There's nothing inherently wrong with the excitement around new decks and strategies, but when that excitement sputters and burns once it hits the competitive sphere, you waste a lot of time, money, and energy that could have been better spent elsewhere. With so many trains zooming out of the Modern station, it's hard to not get sucked into at least one.
As a community, we need to make the pledge to test cards and decks before we cry fair or foul. Don't blast new Modern prospects until you've given them a whirl. Don't prophesize an impending emergency ban until you've actually tested the deck (and even then, as I'll talk about in Resolution #3, don't immediately turn to bans). This is why so many Magic Origins evaluators went ga-ga over Goblin Piledriver while 
often characterizes card and deck evaluation. In the worst case scenario, you waste a little time, play a few games of Magic, and take your findings back to your buddies for real or virtual upvotes. Best case scenario? You stumble on the breakout before anyone else, and you have the results to justify any dollars you dish out. You can also bask in the "I told you so points" that runs most of the internet, and get an edge on developing your new baby for the next event. Incidentally, this is exactly the dynamic we see in current Bx Eldrazi lists (which, I'm proud to say, I tested extensively before talking about yesterday). Play more, talk less, and then bring it back to the forums after you have real content. That's how we'll find the next Oblivion Sowers and Eldrazi Temples of Modern.
The recent rise of Bx Eldrazi is a perfect example of this, although we could just as easily turn to any single Grand Prix winner in 2015. Whenever a deck does well in Modern, there's invariably a ban outcry against some element of that strategy. To a large extent, Wizards shares blame here. In advancing a relatively conservative but still regular ban policy, Wizards has made bans an inseparable part of Modern. But Wizards is much more critical in their application of that policy than the average Modern forum-goer or PPTQ competitor. Bans are their last resort when evidence demands action, and we need to treat them that way. Instead of complaining about a new deck, learn to beat it. Find its weaknesses, run some matches, and do some testing (again with that invaluable "testing" concept). This is how we realize Lantern Control, although awesome, was more lucky break than format breaker. It's also how we'll come to love, and ultimately beat up, our new Eldrazi contenders, instead of talking about preemptive Eldrazi Temple bans across the web.
BGx mages get Tarmogoyf, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, and Siege Rhino. The Eldrazi hordes get, believe it or not, upgraded versions of these vanilla threats in Blight Herder and Oblivion Sower. Using combinations of Eldrazi Temple, Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, and Eye of Ugin, BW Eldrazi can easily cast these seemingly "expensive" critters as early as turn three. Relic, Path, and  opposing delve effects ensure you have fuel for your Eldrazi processors. In effect, this emulates Tron's Wurmcoil Engine or Karn Liberated ramp plan, but with a midrange angle instead of straight ramp.
This manabase enables a mid to late-game transition that further distinguishes BW Eldrazi from other midrange decks. Eye's tutoring, coupled with Sower's obscene mana-ramp, gives you a degree of inevitability that Tarmogoyf and his crew can't match. Don't have an Eye? Don't worry! Maps will get you fixed up, as will cantripping your excess Relics. Once you get the Eye online, Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger sets a new inevitability standard, laughing at the the plodding manland Plan Bs in Jund and Abzan. I've seen Ulamog rumble into play as early as turn five off the turn three Sower and turn four Eye. Even a relatively late turn nine Ulamog is a degree of closure the fairer midrange decks just can't replicate.
Stony Silence, coupled with pressure, is a time-honored solution to that problem. Timely Reinforcements also goes a long way to improving the Burn matchup. Other colors don't give options that improve both of these problematic contests, let alone the best card in Modern (Silence) for resolving a matchup you can't afford to punt in big tournaments. White's second function is to bolster the deck's midrange option with Souls and Path to Exile. Mono-black and black-red Eldrazi don't lack for removal alternatives to Path, but their removal doesn't fuel processors and doesn't hit big dudes that can compete on the ground with our army. Those other colors also can't match Souls for its sheer grindiness and as an added anti-aggro bullet.
Exiling graveyards
