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Snapcasting in Modern

Posted on February 18, 2014February 17, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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With a local Modern GP on the horizon, I have a lot of learning to do about the format. If I wasn't an impatient, compulsive brewer I’d wait for the PT results to try to figure out the format. Seeing as I am, I’ve been toying around with a few things.

With the recent bannings in effect, I believe that I want to be on something with Lingering Souls and/or Snapcaster Mage. Lingering Souls is possibly the more powerful card on its own, but white decks generally bore me to tears. Not to mention that I just have more experience Snapcaster-ing. There’s nothing Lingering Souls can do that will make me feel the way rebuying Thoughtseize on turn three or playing and snapcasting a Lightning Bolt at the end of my opponent’s turn does.

In the dark I’d like to see how my old Grixis deck performs in this new format. The power of Dark Confidant and Snapcaster Mage cannot be understated, and I believe that the non-Sedraxis Specter spells speak for themselves. A current build of the deck would look something like this:

”From Nothing Came Teeth”

spells

4 Dark Confidant

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Sedraxis Specter

2 Thoughtseize

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Terminate

3 Mana Leak

2 Spell Pierce

3 Spell Snare

1 Doom Blade

lands

4 Creeping Tar Pit

4 Scalding Tarn

1 Verdant Catacombs

2 Steam Vents

1 Blood Crypt

1 Watery Grave

2 Island

1 Mountain

1 Swamp

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Darkslick Shores

2 Misty Rainforest

The appeal of the Grixis deck is the ability to play good discard, counters and removal- to combat the opposition on all fronts. While Jund was previously this deck’s nemesis, I could also see Lingering Souls and Bitterblossom being problems. Sideboard Sulfur Elementals, Engineered Explosives and Volcanic Fallouts might be good enough, but I couldn’t say to a certainty at this point. Master of Waves being played in the Merfolk deck is also of some concern, as I wouldn’t want to play too many cards that actually kill Master in the main. The deck can beat up on Affinity, Pod, Burn and Zoo though, so there might be something here.

The other deck that I’m interested in, and that has popped in and out of my head during various stages of the Modern banned list, involves the juxtaposition of these two cards:

This isn’t Legacy, Wild Nacatl isn’t Nimble Mongoose, and this would have to be a four color deck, but I think it can work.

Lightning Bolt, Delver of Secrets and Wild Nacatl are all at peak efficiency for a quality tempo strategy. The biggest question for me is how white the deck should be. Path to Exile and Geist of Saint Traft are interesting incentives, but the former isn't going to play well with the Mana Leaks that my Delvers want to play with and the latter doesn't sound that impressive in a field of Wild Nacatls, Bitterblossoms and Lingering Souls.

From a strictly theoretical standpoint, it makes the most sense to me to make White a very minor splash for Nacatl pumps and some Lightning Helixes to help the Zoo and Burn matchups- not to mention to add a little more reach. It's also probably just wrong to eschew Path entirely.

This is all from a theory-crafting perspective, but after spending quite a bit of time thinking about it I'd like to start testing this list:

Minnesota Wild

spells

4 Wild Nacatl

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Spell Snare

2 Spell Pierce

4 Mana Leak

4 Lightning Helix

4 Gitaxian Probe

2 Path to Exile

lands

1 Mountain

1 Sacred Foundry

4 Arid Mesa

1 Hallowed Fountain

1 Stomping Ground

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

1 Breeding Pool

1 Steam Vents

1 Temple Garden

1 Island

It looks a lot like I just took Zoo, RUG Delver, UW Delver and threw them in a blender. Considering that those are all strong decks, I believe this to be a good thing. So, how exactly does this deck work?

The Mana

The manabase will likely see some changes in the future, but as of now it exists as it does for good reason. With the deck having such varied color-intensive costs as it does, I don't believe that it's easy to say that having Steam Vents and Temple Garden in play is better or worse than having Hallowed Fountain and Stomping Ground.

As such, I opted to just include every relevant dual and a grip of fetchlands. I have no problem having more fetches than fetchable lands- particularly because you're just not going to win if you draw 9 lands. I've gone back and forth on whether I want a basic Forest or not, but as of now it feels superfluous. There are only 8 cards that cost green mana, and Wild Nacatl isn't the biggest fan of basic Forest.

Additionally, the deck is quite blue, and Forest-Nacatl into Sacred Foundry means our third land is going to have to shock us if it's going to give us blue mana and Lightning Helix mana. The manabase hurts, there's no question, but I believe that the deck's efficient interaction as well as access to four Lightning Helix does a good job of mitigating this. Clearly there will be a lot of sideboarding to do against Zoo, but game one is hardly unwinnable.

If through my testing or somebody pointing out something that I just overlooked to me it becomes clear that there are two duals that just make the mana work better than others than I'll change the manabase accordingly. For now, having every option available will have to do.

The Creatures

Delver and Nacatl are obviously the core of the deck, and Tarmogoyf is the most natural fit in the two slot due to raw efficiency. This deck definitely generates a love/hate relationship with Snapcaster Mage. The body often just isn't worth a card against creature decks, so it relies on drawing relevant spells and mana. That said, the upside of rebuying Lightning Bolts/Helixes is just too good to overlook. The body will usually just be gravy, but against non-creature decks it can be a difference maker, and I can see a surprise attack or chump block matter in certain board states against creature decks, too.

Spells

The first thing that I imagine a lot of people will notice is my choice to play Gitaxian Probe over Serum Visions. Probe is going to be dramatically worse against aggressive decks due to the additional life-loss, but Serum Visions is just too inefficient for a deck like this.

It's true that it's only one mana, but it forces you to wait a turn before it offers any actual draw manipulation in addition to being sorcery speed in a deck that really wants to leave its blue mana untapped for bother players' turns. Probe is going to make the deck faster in matchups where life totals don't matter- particularly when you just want to use Snapcaster Mage to cantrip.

Obviously this means that quite a bit of sideboard space is going to need to be good against aggressive decks, but this doesn't strike me as a terrible drawback. The other upside is that it tells you when you need to leave up Spell Pierce and/or Mana Leak, which sounds pretty good to me. I fully expect other players to be inclined to play Serum Visions, but I see it as having the more significant downside.

Only having two Path to Exile in the main is also a bit strange, but it's where I want to start. This is in part a concession to Mana Leak and Spell Pierce, but mostly this deck doesn't really want removal spells that don't offer reach. Part of me wants to play Vapor Snag over Path, but then it feels like the deck is just giving up too much against Zoo. Additionally, Vapor Snag is just going to be poor against value creatures like Kitchen Finks, which I expect to be quite popular.

The rest of the spells look pretty self-explanatory to me. They're just the most efficient ways to interact and generate reach. Outside of Spell Pierce, I believe everything else is pretty standard in decks of the cards' respective colors. Spell Pierce is of course in the deck for its ability to combat removal, discard and Planeswalkers- most notably Liliana of the Veil.

Why Play This?

The big question about this deck is whether it's better than just playing the existing Delver decks or Zoo. What it has over the other Delver decks is an additional three-power one-drop which adds to the decks consistency. What it has over Zoo is the ability to play more interactive spells instead of only creatures and removal. The creature suite is also better suited to combating Engineered Explosives for whatever that's worth. As I've said, it's as of yet untested, but it fits my playstyle and looks abstractly powerful. I'll be sure to report more as more is learned.

Moving Forward

With the bans in effect on MTGO, I should be able to start testing these decks both online and in live events this week. I'll keep an eye out for published lists from around the globe to see what other people have thought of that I haven't- not to mention what new decks come from the Pro Tour.

Next week I'll be reporting on some Standard updates, but expect more Modern content in the near future. I'm pretty stoked to see if Wild Nacatl and Delver of Secrets can co-exist in a competitive shell. I'm not exaggerated when I say that this concept leaves me the most excited I've every been about Modern, so I'm hoping so.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

Insider: Profits for Presidents’ Day

Posted on February 17, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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For the subscribers in the US, I would like to wish you a Happy Presidents’ Day (or I suppose if you are from Botswana, you have a Presidents’ Day as well but not until July). For those unfamiliar with the holiday, Wikipedia describes it as,

“…a United States federal holiday celebrated on the third Monday of February in honor of George Washington, the first President of the United States…also often called Presdients’ Day. Both Lincoln’s and Washington’s birthdays are in February.”

For decades this holiday marked a time to think back and reflect upon all that our forefathers have done for us. But mostly we just appreciate the day off from school and work. Priorities, right?

While I am off from my 9-5 job, I could not possibly fathom taking a day off from writing for this website. There is simply too much going on in the world of MTG finance.

To recognize the holiday however, I have come up with a cheesy way of mentioning some good bets I feel will pay off in the next twelve months. These recommendations will be made in the spirit of our honored Presidents by citing which currency can be anticipated for financial gains from a given investment.

For those international readers, worry not. Images of each currency unit will be provided so that everyone can consider my calls and decide if they agree (or not).

George Washington

These days, making a buck is not all that exciting. In fact with shipping and fees involved, it’s nearly atrocious--unless, of course, your initial investment was even smaller than one dollar per card. Even a dollar gain on a dollar card is something to get excited about given investment in sufficient quantities to fully capitalize.

For those monitoring GP Paris coverage and Twitter you may have noticed some buzz around Sylvan Safekeeper. Although it was only a one-of in a sideboard, the fact that it appeared in a Legacy GP as part of a successful rogue deck means the card may exit bulk rare status once and for all.

No one is going to retire off of this investment, but I can definitely see this card doubling up from $1 to $2 in the coming weeks. Speculation and hype alone will see to this.

If you’d prefer to avoid such speculative buying, consider a solid Modern sideboard card instead. You won’t break the bank by buying into something like Torpor Orb and Stony Silence. But with such a low cost basis, even a George Washington increase could be enough to make it worth your while. Just remember to buy deeply enough so that the one dollar increase in price actually matters.

Abraham Lincoln

Before I get any snarky posts, yes I acknowledge I am skipping over Thomas Jefferson and the two-dollar bill. I only have so many investing ideas and so many characters in an article. Let’s move on and focus on what matters, here: making money.

Identifying cards likely to go up five bucks (but not more or less) is trickier than you’d think. One call that I really like, which has been the center of some recent Twitter debate, is Geist of Saint Traft.

This card has recently jumped off its lows. Being a Modern staple in at least some capacity, this mythic rare will certainly continue its incline. I can readily see Geist hitting $25 this summer when demand is at a local maximum.

But I hesitate to predict an even higher rise without seeing more successful decklists jamming the spirit cleric. Innistrad was printed a bit too recently for us to see ridiculous jumps so soon--this is more reason I put Geist in the five dollar camp for now.

Want a riskier bet, where five dollars is more meaningful? How about the inexpensive Sorin, Lord of Innistrad?

This planeswalker is also at a bottom, and any buzz of a B/W tokens deck in Modern will generate interest and drive the price higher. A five dollar increase feels very possible given that Sorin is sitting at just $5 now.

The recent reprint is a little troublesome, but Dark Ascension was opened in relatively low quantities compared to other recent sets. Also, promotional print runs didn’t stop the likes of Ajani Vengeant from rising an Abraham Lincoln note.

Alexander Hamilton

Hamilton was never a president. I get a bye on this one. Maybe he’ll get his own article if there’s ever a “Old School Got Milk Commercials” Day.

Andrew Jackson

Now we’re talking real money. I get excited when I find a five-dollar bill on the ground. But I can distinctly remember the one time I ever found a twenty lying around for the taking. This much profit can mean a free steak dinner, or even an improvement to a constructed deck!

What’s likely to increase $20 in the year to come? It would most likely be something with a higher starting price, such as Rishadan Port. It’s fairly easy to say that a card that has recently jumped to $120 is likely to see $140 in the coming year--especially with the Reserved List preventing reprints.

But this type of gain may not be meaningful when selling cards online. Fees and shipping will eat into the majority of these gains.

If you really want to take a gamble, check out Exploration.

This card has been on quite the run in the past couple months. The recent 20% gain looks nice, but if Kasper Euser’s GP Paris deck gets any more attention throughout the weekend we could easily see a double-up.

Forget Sylvan Safekeeper. This is where the real money could be made on this rogue deck. Urza’s Saga was printed a million years ago, and with Gaea's Cradle being in the set there’s no telling what the ceiling on this card could be.

Just be careful--Exploration is not on the Reserved List. Still, I can’t picture this card getting reprinted any time soon. But invest accordingly.

Ulysses S. Grant

Now we’re getting into the big bucks. Besides stuff like Black Lotus, predicting a $50 price increase for a one-year time frame is quite difficult. With volumes on Power being so low, it’s even difficult to identify what type of price change occurred over one year.

These price movements take place over multiple years simply because so few sell. And again, with fees getting cumbersome (not to mention counterfeit risk) I can’t advocate tying up so much money in Power as a one-year investment. These are bets for the long haul.

One practical idea I have: foil Liliana of the Veil. Her demand may ebb and flow in Modern and Legacy, but the fact remains--this is a very powerful planeswalker. As Innistrad begins to age, foil copies of Liliana will become more and more scarce.

Last year Star City Games placed foil Liliana of the Veil on sale for about $150. Now there are only two copies in stock at $190. I can easily picture a scenario where NM copies are sold out at $250 one year from now.

While a reprint is always a risk, this is one bet that may net you a $50 profit this year should she dodge the reprint bullet.

Benjamin Franklin – Bonus

While Franklin was a major player in our country’s early days, he was never actually President. Guess what--I still have an idea for this category.

Modern Masters booster boxes.

Parking $300 in these may be unwise due to opportunity cost, but that doesn’t preclude me from at least predicting that they will go up $100 in twelve months. They’ve already gone up $50 on eBay, and the days of finding $250 boxes on eBay and retail websites are long gone. But I still see these breaking $400 by year’s end at retail stores.

Advocating a buy here is not my intent because fees and shipping are a beast on something of this magnitude. But if you want a couple more boxes to enjoy with some friends, the window of acquiring them affordably is rapidly closing.

Until Next Presidents’ Day

Remind me, and I’ll revisit my predictions next year to see how close I came. This would be a fun exercise to undertake. In the meantime, make sure you continue to watch the MTG market closely.

Just because you may be off from school or work doesn’t imply MTG finance is taking a breather. Every day brings new targets and new information to consider.

…

Sigbits

Modern B&R Announcement Version!

Think the banning of Deathrite Shaman will make Vengevine decks playable in Modern? Then consider looking at Fauna Shaman as a low-cost investment target. SCG is sold out of this card at $6.99.
Some Scars of Mirrodin fastlands are finally getting traction. Darkslick Shores is nearing $5 thanks to the unbanning of Bitterblossom. SCG is down to 19 copies of Razorverge Thicket at $3.99. These will head to $4.99 shortly, and potentially higher come the summer.
Wild Nacatl is back! Know what works well with this creature? Arid Mesa. Just don’t look to SCG to buy your copies--they’re already sold out at $39.99.

The Orzhov Army

Posted on February 14, 2014February 13, 2014 by Mike Lanigan

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Last week, our mission was to delve into the world of Xenagos, God of Revels. That card still seems as potent a card you could play in Standard but despite all my efforts working with him I found myself thinking of other topics.

Even though I love Xenagos and think he’s amazing, I discovered I was serving a different king. The one, the only, the overhyped…

From the moment he was spoiled, I had a sense that he would be my true inspiration for this format. Just like with Xenagos, I brewed up ideas of how to best utilize my new king. He was a threat worth protecting. Setting up a ‘protect the king’ strategy seemed like a viable way to win games in the expected upcoming format.

There were many iterations of White Weenie and the White-Black Humans deck I tried to fit him into, but none of them seemed quite right. The king didn’t take his rightful place like I was hoping he would.

One thought broke through the box and came full circle to reinvision a deck that nearly stood atop the last Pro Tour. Rather than trying to protect my king with Gods Willing or Brave the Elements, I could instead play a more powerful card overall that will disrupt every strategy: Thoughtseize.

Paul Rietzl gave me the shell to work with from back at Pro Tour Theros. Here was his list.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Soldier of the Pantheon

4 Precinct Captain

2 Sin Collector

4 Desecration Demon

1 Blood Baron of Vizkopa

3 Obzedat, Ghost Council

Spells

4 Thoughtseize

3 Doom Blade

4 Hero's Downfall

3 Read the Bones

1 Whip of Erebos

1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Lands

4 Godless Shrine

1 Mutavault

4 Orzhov Guildgate

7 Plains

6 Swamp

4 Temple of Silence

Sideboard

1 Blood Baron of Vizkopa

1 Devour Flesh

1 Doom Blade

1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

3 Fiendslayer Paladin

1 Last Breath

2 Lifebane Zombie

1 Pharika's Cure

1 Pithing Needle

2 Sin Collector

1 Underworld Connections

When thinking about how I could best utilize Brimaz’s strengths, this shell seemed like the best place for him. After seeing him in the sideboard of various blue-white control decks, I will admit that seems like a great place too. But for an aggressive shell this is the best place to start.

The reason I initially had so much respect for this deck is because it played the most powerful creatures at each spot on the mana curve. My goal was to replicate that deck-building process and update it for the current card pool. Obviously we want Brimaz in the deck, but there are a couple other creatures and spells that need to be changed so that the king can lead his army to victory.

Here’s what I ended up with after trying out a couple different things.

The Orzhov Army

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Soldier of the Pantheon

4 Precinct Captain

4 Pack Rat

4 Brimaz, King of Oreskos

4 Desecration Demon

2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa

Spells

4 Thoughtseize

2 Ultimate Price

1 Orzhov Charm

1 Bile Blight

1 Spear of Heliod

4 Hero's Downfall

Lands

4 Godless Shine

4 Temple of Silence

4 Orzhov Guildgate

3 Mutavault

5 Plains

5 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Duress

3 Sin Collector

2 Dark Betrayal

1 Glare of Heresy

3 Doom Blade

3 Lifebane Zombie

Round 1 – Mono Blue Devotion with Fated Infatuation

The first round of the event started out with one of the great Magic frustrations: land screw. In game one, I kept a great hand with two lands and didn’t draw my third land until turn four. Obviously this happens, but with such a potent Standard format, once the game reaches that point it’s going to be quite hard to win the game. This fact is magnified against a devotion deck because they will have built up a larger devotion count.

Also, I felt that even though I was massively behind on the board, I should have saved my removal spell. If I had done so, I would have been able to kill the Master of Waves and buy myself much more time to draw out of my mana-deprived state.

After game one, I felt favored to win the match. Some of my two-power creatures were weak to his high-toughness dudes, but there were so many powerful things I could do and he did not have many ways to interact with my plans, so I was confidant I could win the match despite being down a game. After crushing him game two with a fast draw plus removal to clear the way, I was even more confidant.

Unfortunately, game three went down the same path as game one and I was on the hunt for lands to cast my spells. This time I did draw lands sooner, but his Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx draw into an overloaded Cyclonic Rift left me in an unwinnable position.

Fated Infatuation did seem interesting but ultimately did not have much impact on the game. A card like that is extremely vulnerable to spot removal so I would be wary about playing with it. He never cast it during a time when I could kill his creature in response though so maybe it's worth considering.

Record 0-1

Round 2 – Red-Green Monsters

Normally, I would say this is close matchup that usually ends in favor of my deck based on Thoughtseize stripping their hand. None of that was needed for round two of this event because my opponent had extremely slow hands, with his first play in both games being Fanatic of Xenagos.

Game one he put up more of a fight with Fanatic into Fanatic into Xenagos, God of Revels, but the Orzhov Army builds up its forces too quickly for a draw like that to defeat it. Game two was even quicker because on top of his second slow start, he was flooded.

Record 1-1

Round 3 – Mono-Red

As my opponent started playing the game, it was clear what deck he was playing. As more and more copies of Rakdos Cackler, Gore-House Chainwalker, and Ash Zealot were cast, I became nervous about the matchup. As the game progressed and my advantage grew, I noticed the true potency of my deck.

If the red opponent cannot answer Brimaz, they cannot possible keep up no matter how many creatures they cast. Desecration Demon stops their horde cold because they don’t have enough creatures that sacrificing to tap him will be profitable.

I don’t know whether or not my opponent had Mizzium Mortars, but he seemed doomed without it. Even though I didn’t draw Blood Baron of Vizkopa, I still won the match easily in two games.

Record 2-1

Round 4 – White Weenie Splash Blue

Despite playing twenty five lands in my reasonably low-curve deck, I found myself hurting for lands in many games throughout the event. The first game of this match continued the streak. Finally when I thought I was clawing my way back into the game, he topdecked Banisher Priest to seal the deal sooner than expected.

Game two my opponent could do nothing against my Blood Baron leading the army. The third game was an extremely tight game until I was able to draw a Blood Baron. As it turns out my opponent wasn’t cold to Blood Baron, he actually had Celestial Flare, but since I never attacked with it alone, he could never remove the protection-from-white menace.

Once I started gaining life, my low eight life quickly jumped back up. He was able to stall with Hands of Binding which was a tricky addition to the archetype. Daxos of Meletis was in the build as well, but he never saw the battlefield in our match.

Record 3-1

Round 5 – ID

Top 8: Quarters – B/W Midrange

In the first round of Top 8, I had to play a friend of mine. We both had basically the same deck idea. He built his deck closer to Mono-Black Devotion splashing white, whereas I based mine off of Paul Reitzl’s list from Pro Tour Theros.

After taking a look at his exact list, I knew my plan needed to be win fast. My curve was much lower than his was so I needed to go underneath and get in as much damage early as I could. For my aggro plan to be successful, I also needed Thoughtseize to make his hand unable to compete with mine.

In the first game I did this by removing his Blood Baron even though he had earlier plays. He did land his one of Elspeth, Sun's Champion to stall for quite a while, but I was able to fight through it with Brimaz, and then a second Brimaz after he had removal for the first. It was an intense, grindy game, but I pulled out the win by keeping the pressure up the whole game.

The second game was also won by Thoughtseize, but this time from the information it gained me. I was able to sculpt my plan according to the removal in his hand. I played my threats out so that he had to expend the most resources to deal with them and then I would be left with double Desecration Demon to fight against his topdecks.

Top 8: Semis – Mono-Blue Devotion with Fated Infatuation

After beating me in the first round, my Mono-Blue opponent went on to crush many other opponents. Despite my loss to him in round one, I was confident that the appropriate ratio of lands to spells would leave me the victor.

Game one cemented my belief that I'm favored. Although it was a close game, he was unable to keep up. After I stripped the Thassa, God of the Sea from his hand, I started deploying my Pack Rat army. He filtered through many cards with his Omenspeaker plus Fated Infatuation on the Omenspeaker, but he was unable to find any help to overcome the pack of rats.

Game two brought a surprising turn of events. I kept a strong proactive hand but one that outside of Thoughtseize did not have a way to interact with my opponent. Typically this is enough information and disruption to defeat any deck but Master of Waves is a true beating.

The first one was fine and I thought I would be able to fight my way through the tokens, but the second one generated too many tokens that were too large for me to even live through one attack. It was on my mind that maybe I was too aggressive with my attacks but at that point in the game either I attack and die to the second Master of Waves or I hold back and my chance of winning the game lessens as my opponent clogs the board even more.

Game three was a quick one. I started deploying threats quickly and the blue deck struggled to keep up. Eventually he had to start chump-blocking and the game was over quickly after that. My removal spells were able to keep his devotion count down and I made sure to save one just for the Master of Waves he hoped to stabilize with.

If you kill Master, most of their game plan crumbles so be conservative with your removal spells. Only Nightveil Specter and Master are must kills. Other than those two, you can take a bunch of damage and usually be okay.

After sideboarding, you have extra removal in Doom Blade which allows you to often be on the plan of kill every creature they play. This match is in favor of the Orzhov Army once you know how it plays out.

Top 8: Finals – B/W Devotion

Seeing my friend's exact deck list was extremely helpful because I would not have expected him to have eight five-drop creatures in his deck and definitely would not have played around Gray Merchant of Asphodel after he had cast Blood Baron of Vizkopa. Usually the Mono-Black Devotion decks that splash white cut Gray Merchant altogether.

Just like my quarterfinal match, I knew I should be the aggressor and try to actively win as quickly as possible. Eight five drops is a lot, but he had sufficient removal to back them up in the early game. As long as his life gain did not get out of control, I felt poised to defeat him.

In the maindeck I do not have many routes to victory once Blood Baron is on the table, so using my Thoughtseize to remove that potential threat seemed essential. Racing the Blood Baron is possible but unlikely considering how much removal his deck ran.

In game one, I was on plan and used Thoughtseize to remove the protection-from-my-deck creature and apply pressure to the board until he drew a second copy off of an active Underworld Connections. The combination of life gain and card draw is about as powerful as it gets in Standard especially when half your deck is removal spells.

Moving onto game two, I worried because I did not have Thoughtseize to disrupt him. Fortunately, I did have a second Brimaz to follow up the first and Lifebane Zombie to get rid of the Blood Baron.

Game three I faced my most important decision of the match. I looked at the following opening hand.

After taking a moment to consider my options, I spoke only one word: Keep.

Would you have kept this opening hand? I talked to my finals opponent as well as other players and unanimously every player agreed with my decision. Still, I do not know if this hand should have been thrown back. It features one of my best creatures plus ways to filter my draws and also Mutavault.

One thing this hand does not do though is interact with my opponent. I have eight ways to strip their hand as well as many removal spells to clear their creatures from my path. This hand possesses none of those aspects. This may be the tipping point to where I should have taken a mulligan.

Another fact is that if he has kept in Pack Rat for game three, I will most likely lose to that powerhouse unless the top card of my deck is a removal spell. If I had considered my opponent having Pack Rat for this game, I would have certainly taken a chance with my new six card hand.

Unfortunately, when you don't have removal Pack Rat wins games. That was certainly the case here. I did put up a fight, but in the end, I drew no removal spells the entire game and although it took him five rat tokens plus two Mutavaults to kill me, I did lose an epic finals match to an extremely competent opponent.

Modifications

After the event, I felt only a couple cards needed to be changed. The Orzhov Charm was decent for me all day, but the Bile Blight was amazing when I drew it so I want to make that swap for the second Bile Blight. After seeing firsthand what the metagame looks like, a second Spear of Heliod feels like the right direction for the deck.

The final alteration was to the numbers on each card in the sideboard. I’m still working on my sideboard plans, but those are my tentative numbers until I get in some more games.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Soldier of the Pantheon

4 Precinct Captain

4 Pack Rat

4 Brimaz, King of Oreskos

3 Desecration Demon

2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa

Spells

4 Thoughtseize

2 Ultimate Price

2 Bile Blight

2 Spear of Heliod

4 Hero's Downfall

Lands

4 Godless Shine

4 Temple of Silence

4 Orzhov Guildgate

3 Mutavault

5 Plains

5 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Duress

2 Sin Collector

2 Dark Betrayal

2 Glare of Heresy

3 Doom Blade

4 Lifebane Zombie

After casting the leader of my army in many games, I have been pondering his power level. Brimaz plays out somewhat differently than expected. The constraining factor is that you are forced to attack and block in a predictable way that your opponent can identify and plan for.

When he attacks, you will always also be attacking with a 1/1 as long as you remember the trigger. Often that 1/1 acts more like a distraction to help you force through three damage. If there are any other creatures untapped on the battlefield, which there typically are, the 1/1 just dies. This happens often, but is still not a bad thing because it helps you damage your opponent with Brimaz. If the 1/1 lives through the first combat, then you can make decisions about how to attack with it in subsequent turns.

The same goes for blocking as well. You do not get to decide how to block with the 1/1 token. Yes you get an additional guy, but often the extra 1/1 just dies. The only time you are blocking with Brimaz is when their creature will die and yours will live, so your opponent will choose to kill the 1/1 instead of allowing you to grow your board presence.

The fact that you are able to get additional creatures just for attacking or blocking is definitely a bonus, but since your opponent gets to make most of the decisions regarding them Brimaz plays more like a tribute card than something like Precinct Captain.

The other drawback is that you cannot block a different creature with your 1/1. It must block the same creature Brimaz is blocking. Some opponents do not realize this yet so you may get some mistakes from opponents not familiar with playing against him.

At the end of the day, Brimaz is still great and does generate an advantage for you. He is not the best three-drop creature of all time though as some would have led you to believe. Rather, he is a powerful yet balanced creature that is worth playing in many decks in Standard.

Overall, the deck was extremely powerful and hard to disrupt. My opponents were not prepared to face the oppressive Pack Rat in addition to the aggressive white creatures backed up by hand disruption and removal spells. I’ll be bringing this updated version below to battle with at the PTQ this weekend, so I will have more information and sweet stories to share next week.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force of the Orzhov Army!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: MTGO Portfolio Update for February

Posted on February 14, 2014January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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From time to time I like to take stock of my portfolio and see what direction it has taken recently. Most of my speculating ideas show up in my articles or the forums, but it's always good to go over the precise rationale for recent calls.

Archangel of Thune

This card's price took off at the end of January after Alexander Hayne won GP Vancouver. His U/W deck featured this card as a four-of out of the board.

MTGO prices adjusted quickly, jumping from about 12 tix to the 18-20 tix range, around a 60% increase. Paper prices took longer to find their level and are now sitting at around $30, about an 80% increase in just under 3 weeks.

Some of the timeline of the paper price increase corresponds to the addition of Born of the Gods (BNG) to the Standard format. Once BNG is released on MTGO this weekend, this M14 mythic rare could conceivably break through 20 tix.

I was quite fortunate to start buying this prior to GP Vancouver, and then I subsequently sold down into the immediate aftermath of that event. However, the trend in paper forced me to consider retaking a position. This morning the price tipped over 19 tix on Cardbot and I took that as a good sign to expect further price increases on MTGO, somewhat mirroring the paper price.

Bonfire of the Damned

This former high flier found a price floor around 6 to 6.5 tix. Although it’s not really considered Modern-playable, Brian Kibler has used it as a three-of in the sideboard of his Domri/Naya deck. It would be brought in against decks that overloaded the board with creatures such as Soul Sisters.

With the unbanning of Bitterblossom, this could see an increase in play. Although I can’t speak to the efficacy of Bitterblossom or Bonfire of the Damned in the new Modern format, the value is there as this card has been largely ignored.

As usual, downside risk is mitigated by this card's value to redeemers. As a set, Avacyn Restored (AVR) has seen steady price increases in both paper and digital. The redemption link supports prices on all AVR mythics and the high price of AVR junk mythic rares suggest that redemption demand for this set has been steady.

This was an easy buy in the 6-7 tix range. Currently it’s still at a reasonable price of about 7.5 tix. If this card shows up at PT Valencia in some fashion then it should increase to 10+ tix.

In the absence of any Modern usage, medium- to longer-term price increases will be supported through redemption. Griselbrand, Restoration Angel, Cavern of Souls and Craterhoof Behemoth continue to see price strength in both paper and digital. This will help to eventually bring the price of Bonfire to a just profitable level of around 9 tix.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor

This wasn’t unbanned in Modern and the price has come off a few tix in the past 10 days. The rationale for buying this one is unchanged though.

Interest in Legacy and Vintage will increase as we get closer to the release of Vintage Masters in the summer. In the short term, there will be a seasonal dip in price over the coming weeks as players shift interest towards the release of Born of the Gods (BNG) and the Standard format.

Liliana of the Veil

This one dropped hard as a result of the Deathrite Shaman banning. I wrote about why I liked it in the 58-64 tix range in both an Insider Alert and my article last week.

Prices have firmed up and are now stable in the 65 to 68 tix range. The paper price is creeping upwards, and Star City Games recently updated their price to $70.

My plan is to continue to hold this into PT Valencia, giving the pros first crack at Modern after the B&R announcement. Liliana’s place in the format should be revealed at that time. Downside risk is strongly mitigated by redemption and the rising price in paper. Any change in the outlook for paper price would increase risk and force me to reconsider holding this card.

Promo Maze's End

The peculiar nature of this mythic rare means that the Dragon’s Maze (DGM) version trades at quite the premium when compared to other junk mythic rares.

Nowhere was this more evident than when I noticed that the promo version (awarded for participating in DGM release events) was recently priced at 0.08 tix on Cardbot, compared to 3+ tix for the DGM version. The magnitude of price discrepancy between versions definitely got my attention.

Any somewhat successful Block Constructed strategy, such as decks featuring Maze’s End, should be kept in the back of your mind as Standard takes shape after a set release. If a Maze’s End archetype sees some success in Standard, the promo version should quickly close the price gap as players ignore the pricier DGM version in favor this card.

In recent days the promo price has firmed up to over 0.2 tix and the regular version has cracked 4 tix. The promo could easily go to 1+ tix if the strategy sees some uptake by Standard players.6

Boosters

In January I took the opportunity to sell down my stock of M14 boosters. This was a well discussed opportunity that I think many QS Insiders took advantage of. It turned out that the optimal timing was closer to the release of BNG. Regardless, this was still nicely profitable in the ranger of 0.4 to 0.5 tix per booster.

Moving into Theros (THS) boosters is a natural switch at this point due to the structure of BNG-THS-THS drafts and their prize payouts after BNG hits the market, as well as the switch from THS to BNG in Daily Event prizes.

THS has fluctuated in the 3.0 to 3.25 tix range in recent weeks. I’d consider 3.2 tix to be the upper end where I am comfortable buying. They might see a dip over the weeekend as prerelease events fire up. The 'tix only' nature of these events means that THS booster demand will drop temporarily. Look for these to jump up to 3.3 to 3.4 tix in a couple of weeks, with further price increases after that.

Insider: Modern Pro Tour Specs

Posted on February 13, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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The title says it all. A Modern Pro Tour is fast approaching, and it’s sure to create some movers. This week I want to talk about the ones I believe are most likely to see that movement.

The Top Tier

I feel most confident in these cards taking off, if not for this Pro Tour than for Modern season in general. This week is probably our last chance to move in early on these.

Geist of Saint Traft

I mentioned this last week, and I’m very confident in this call. It’s also already seen some movement since then, as sub-$15 copies are beginning to dry up.

This is a huge player in Zoo, and I believe a Bant version of Zoo inspired by Noble Hierarch will be popular. This build allows you to sideboard counterspells against the combo decks and get tricky with Snapcaster Mage if you’d like. It’s true that Geist has been replaced by True-Name Nemesis in Legacy, but let’s be honest, Modern is the driving financial format these days.

As for the ceiling, $25ish is where it goes with a good Pro Tour, and $20-25 in-season if it sees no more play than now. If it truly has a breakout weekend, its going to double to $30. Either way, this thing will cost more come PTQ season than it does now.

Snapcaster Mage

Most of the “easy” targets from the older sets are beginning to disappear. New Phyrexia, Scars of Mirrodin, Rise of the Eldrazi, etc. have all taken off. Innistrad’s time isn’t far behind. Snapcaster is starting his ascent back upwards, and this is one of those cards that’s been $18-20 forever but before you notice will slip to $25 and then $30.

I think we’re at the perfect time to get in here since the $3 uptick in the past month has been so organic. Whether it’s the Pro Tour or not, soon there will be a mini-rush on this that will eliminate the cheap copies.

Restoration Angel

Been talking about this one for months, and its time is coming. It’s inching from $4 to $6 and will be $10 come Modern season. This should be an easy double-up.

I prefer targeting the regular versions to the promo foil, though so far the prices have stayed comparable.

Inkmoth Nexus

This is something you’re a bit late to if you didn’t already have them, and I’ve been talking about this card since it was $4. It’s now nearly $8 and will be $12-15 in-season, with a rise to $10 likely after the Pro Tour. Affinity may not be as good in the meta as it was, but I also doubt it’s going anywhere. Not to mention Infect which could also come back.

Cavern of Souls

Already seeing upward movement, and we know how powerful it is. It’s a great tool both for and against Faeries (mostly against it), so it’s a safe bet to assume these will see $20 again.

The Next Tier

For lack of a witty title, that’s what you get. I really like these cards but the upside on them is slower at least, if not lower.

Scavenging Ooze

People have to go somewhere for their graveyard hate. Ooze, along with Rest in Peace and Relic of Progenitus (the latter two have limited upside), will fill the role.

Of these, Ooze seems to be at a floor, so I would expect it to rise toward Modern season. I know it’s still in Standard, but this really can’t go much lower, I would think.

Griselbrand

I’m just going to assume you’ve all been following this one, since on QS we talk about it regularly. I don’t think it’s worth buying in at $25, because it’s unlikely to go higher than $35 anytime soon, so that’s a large opportunity cost paid. That said, it will continue rising and could bump from the Pro Tour, so trading into these seems fine.

Cryptic Command

It got reprinted and is just now beginning to rebound, to an astounding $35. Again, I’m going to preach limited upside but safe trade target. $45 in-season seems reasonable for this powerhouse, but I’m not sure you want to park cash into these when it’s so expensive to do so.

Birthing Pod

Another card that’s pretty much guaranteed to continue rising; another card we’ve been talking about for awhile (it actually feels like forever); another safe target to acquire.

It “spiked” from $5 to $9 a month ago, and has flatlined since then. We’ve seen multiple cards in Modern double-jump, with Splinter Twin being the most recent, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Pod did the same. $12 in-season seems reasonable, and if it goes crazy at the Pro Tour $15 feels like the ceiling.

Merfolk Cards

Everyone knows I love Merfolk. Hell, even Michael Jacobs knows at this point since he read and complimented my Modern Merfolk primer on his stream last week.

I’ll touch briefly on the deck as a whole since I’ve done so a few times before. A lot of the upside is limited at this point, and while the Zoo matchup is probably unfavorable, people will still build Fish.

Again, I think Master of the Pearl Trident and Aether Vial are the best targets since the other stuff has already risen so much, but everything will continue to inch upwards as we move forward.

Scars Fastlands

A year ago you were reading the same thing from me, and a year ago Razorverge Thicket was $2. We’re finally seeing movement on these (Thicket is now over $3), and this is the season where these reach $5. Except for Darkslick Shores, which already did so due to Faeries hype. The others will be following suit, so don’t miss your last chance.

Through the Breach

Cheating Emrakul into play isn’t getting worse any time soon, and this is still probably the best way to do it. I’ve been toying around with the G/W Trap/Breach deck that uses Windbrisk Heights and Mosswort Bridge along with Breach to go all-in on the Emrakul plan, and it’s been a lot of fun.

I don’t know if it’s going to do anything this season (I expect not), but it has shown me the “oops, I win” power of Through the Breach. It’s already $10, but I like it as a trade target that moves to $15 in-season.

Path to Exile/Lightning Helix

We have more Zoo incoming this season, and these aren’t getting any worse. Obviously the upside isn’t huge, but they’re not going down, either.

The True Specs

Now let’s go a bit deeper into the tank. I talked about Thrun, the Last Troll last week, and I’ll reiterate that one.

But the most interesting piece of news I’ve received this week is the deck found by PT testers that uses Congregation at Dawn to set up a Skill Borrower-Griselbrand combo. I have no idea what happens from there, but on MODO at least Skill Borrower seems like it can’t go lower. I’m not advocating buying into these yet, but keep your eyes and ears peeled for talk of it.

Gifts Ungiven seems like it’s either great or terrible in this new meta, a lot of which likely depends on Faeries.

Speaking of new decks, if B/W Tokens is a thing I expect Sorin, Lord of Innistrad or Ajani Goldmane to play a role. I especially like Sorin at his sub-$5 price, since as a planeswalker he can’t really go much lower. This is an easy double-up, either two weeks from now or a year from now. Obviously one is better than the other, but it’s an extremely low-risk bet.

Anything I missed or something else you want me to address? Let me know in the comments and I’ll respond. Happy speculating!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Before you act….

Posted on February 13, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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This week has been one of those weeks. Before I knew it, Wednesday was upon me. When we last left our hero: Modern was getting shaken & stirred, Standard was getting thrown on the barbie, and that new card smell was finally hitting our nostrils. The thing about crazy weeks like this is, what information can I pass onto you that's going to benefit you for the next 168 hours?

In this column, I want to consistently bring the subject matter that you need to know each and every week. This week, we're going to take a step back. Making sure your head is in the right place is the key to success. The most important space, is that space between your ears.

So, what do you need?

The number one issue I talk about constantly with other "Financiers" is: _____________________?

If you had to answer that question, what would you fill the blank in with? It took me a long time to really come around to how "head & shoulders" above everything else, one thing is:

Having A Plan

I've talked more on this subject than I care to admit, and this last week is no exception. Tapped Out Magic officially has it's business plan down. It's no longer thoughts floating in my head on what I think I should do if a scenario arises. This is generally just a good practice because the hardest thing to come by is remembering to treat this like a business.

It's true. This is a hobby you enjoy. You probably started off as a player and the slow dawning of what this business could offer came to life across your face. That dawn of recognition. That "My mind just got blown" look of satisfaction. I've been there. It's okay. You're not alone.

Best practices though? No matter the level you are on - you need to have a plan of action. Let's open the floor, in the comments discuss what your game is. Why are you a part of the finance market and what is your corner of the market?

It's easy to understand the ebbs & flows of formats. The cyclical deck narrative is a relatively simple progression of acting when markets are cool and benefiting when hot. Still, it's a pretty simple concept. Hell, even making sure you have the correct positioning on singles is not hard. What IS hard, is having that master plan.

In conjunction with this, this is one of the few industries where the tide raises all ships. The more players that play, the better everyone does. For 20 years, this game has primarily spread through word of mouth. This lesson is hard for a lot of learn, least of all to remember. Too many times have I seen that cagey look of fear in someone's eyes.

"What does he know that I don't"

Have you ever just tried to stop and ask? "Hey, what DO you know that I don't?"

What's one thing that you would share with any other person involved with MTG: Finance?

If they had to know ONE thing. Only one thing. What would it be?

So this week, I'm going to open this column up to discussion. Why are you involved in MTG Finance? What is ONE thing someone either involved or getting into MTG: Finance - what ONE THING should they know, above all else?

My answers:
1) I want to build. Build the community, build the support structure, and give the tools to people who want to live their dream so they too can build.

2) One COMMON misconception about vending, and the reason it's so rare to see outside vendor's at closed events: It's not about selling. That's nice but it's all just a bonus. Vendor's care more about BUYING your cards than selling you theirs.

- Till Next Week

Insider: Finding a Balance

Posted on February 12, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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I’m in the process of selling out of Standard. It’s funny to say that, because the fact is that I haven’t played a single game of Standard since well before Innistrad block rotated. My Magic-playing time these days is exclusively spent drafting, but for some reason I’ve held onto a relatively large collection — one I’m really not using at all.

In addition to a Standard mono-red deck and various cards for other decks, I have most of the pieces for several Modern decks: Melira Pod, Splinter Twin, UWR Control, various iterations of Delver, etc. Like with Standard, it’s been quite a while since I played any Modern. I also currently have three EDH decks, despite the fact that the only time I ever play the format is while waiting for draft pods to fire. This being the case, I can’t remember the last time I actually finished a game of Commander.

So I barely use the cards I have amassed. And yet—and I’m sure many of you can identify with this—I have this Magic-player instinct to build and maintain a collection, no matter how much it just sits around gathering dust. However, I also have the mindset of an MTG financier, which means that when I acquire cards to go in my Commander decks, I’m acquiring them at their lowest price points. When those cards spike, this can create some interesting conflicts.

Selling Out

There is no conflict in my mind when it comes to selling out of Standard. PTQ season ends on March 9, less than one month from now. I want out. The first Star City Games Open Series event since the release of Born of the Gods has shown that not much has changed in the metagame. I saw some discussion on Twitter saying that usually it’s the second week that shakes up the meta, but when we only have four weeks of the format being relevant, I’m not willing to wait around for a quarter of that time to see if something crazy happens.

My first step in selling out was to list cards for sale in my local community. When selling locally, I like to price cards above buylist but below TCGplayer low—this way, everyone wins. I sold what I could, and then took to Trader Tools to buylist everything else. I got my Standard cards sorted into piles for buylists, and then I started looking through the rest of my collection for cards I was willing to sell. And so the internal conflicts began.

Let’s take Karn Liberated as an example. I currently own two copies of Karn, which reside in two EDH decks: Maelstrom Wanderer and Mikaeus, the Unhallowed. The card is pretty important to both decks, as RUG doesn’t have hard removal and mono-black has a very hard time dealing with artifacts and enchantments. It’s a really sweet card to play with, and I acquired my copies in trade at a paltry $15 each. With the card buylisting at $35 right now, I could more than double up, but I also may never again have the opportunity to acquire Karn at below $35. I don’t play much EDH right now, but if that changes in the future, will I regret selling my copies?

I kept coming to cards that are currently priced much higher than the price for which I acquired them. Phyrexian Obliterator: doubled up. Raging Ravine: tripled up. Bitterblossom: quadrupled up. Genesis Wave: quintupled up. And on and on. And yet, I only own one copy of each of these cards. They’re fun and good across formats, and what if they keep going up and I can’t reacquire them at my sell price?

At this point, I want to tell you I had an epiphany. I want to say that I know exactly what the right call is in a situation like this. But you and I both know that this is really something we all have to confront on an individual basis. For me, I sold the heck out of Bitterblossom (Modern event deck incoming, folks!), but I’m leaning toward holding the other cards I cited. I’m not entirely sure this is the rational decision, but since when has devoting large amounts of time and money to cardboard been rational? I’ve only submitted one of my three buylists so far, so I may yet change my mind.

There are probably a few members of this site who play very little or no Magic and for whom these internal conflicts aren’t an issue, but for most of us, this is something we’re going to have to face from time to time. As card prices continue to rise, player-financiers will have to justify continuing to play with cards they could sell for many times above their purchase prices. Further complicating the issue is that for Modern cards, any of them could be reprinted at any time, making holding on to unused cards because they “might be needed someday” a much riskier venture than it might otherwise be.

I can’t answer this question for you, but I can bring the issue to your attention. How many unused decks do you have sitting around with hundreds of dollars of value? Do you really need those cards? Maybe you do and maybe you don’t, but the important thing is to realize why you’re holding them. Sometimes things have intangible value that’s more important than just dollars and cents, and recognizing those situations will help us make the best decisions for our own personal circumstances.

Before moving on, I should point out that I am holding the vast majority of my Modern cards. There’s a Modern pro tour coming up, and I guarantee you we’re going to see some major changes in the metagame. I’ll review my Modern collection when the situation is more clear.

Standard Exceptions Apply

When I say I’m selling out of Standard, I’m mostly referring to my Return to Ravnica block cards. Theros cards are relatively depressed right now, so I’m looking to hold onto mythics from the set. I’m selling rares that are going for above-bulk prices, but anything at bulk is worth holding.

I think we’re going to see a prolonged disinterest in Standard once PTQ season ends. Add this to the fact that Theros will be drafted all year long, and I expect that by the end of the summer, the set will have bottomed out across the board, especially the rares. This is why I’m happy to accept $1 on cards like Spear of Heliod and Fabled Hero—I believe that in a few months they’ll be available as bulk or just above it.

There are a few cards from Return to Ravnica block that I’m holding. Supreme Verdict sees play in eternal formats and is not selling for much right now, so I’m holding my copies to see where it goes in the future. Casual cards like the Primordials, Plasm Capture, and Progenitor Mimic are clear holds, as are some of the casually-appealing guild leaders, like Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius. With cards like these, I’d rather hold and see what happens than out my copies at 80 cents each. Just because a card never catches on in Standard doesn’t mean it won’t someday catch on in other formats.

My worst spec of the year has to be this pile of Advent of the Wurm that I acquired for $3.48 each. I also have a few Loxodon Smiters that I’m not satisfied to get a dollar for. These are the only two cards I’m holding in hopes that the Standard metagame, and thus prices, can actually change in the next few weeks. I may end up going down with the ship, but I’m hopeful I can salvage a little more of my investment than I could right now.

Finally, the big question: what do I do with all these shocklands? I have several dozen that I acquired in trade and with store credit for $7 to $10 each. Before Jason Alt single-handedly crashed the market by saying they were bad specs after everyone had acquired all their copies (there may be some revisionist history going on here), my target outing price was $15 each. As it sits right now, I can sell each shock for $5 to $8.50, which is essentially break-even, since I didn’t spend cash.

This is the situation in which I’m most torn. Shocks see all the play in Modern, but not always as four-ofs. It seems inevitable that they’ll see sustained long-term growth, but how long will it take for that to happen? And how much will they drop at rotation? I’m interested in hearing what you have planned with your extra shock lands. I know I’m not the only one sitting on a pile of these things, so please share your thoughts in the comments!

Insider: Dos and Donts of Safe Trading

Posted on February 12, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers.

Today's article was inspired by a dream...actually a nightmare. In this dream I was trading with a player following all my normal trading rules when I turned my head for a few minutes to talk to him. His friend offered me a solid deal on a cheap card he knew I had. I said sure and went back to talking to his friend, letting the other guy pull out my cards.

When I completed the trade with his friend I looked back at my binders and discovered all my valuable cards gone and the cheap card requested in the trade left on top (in a mocking fashion). I became so upset by this that it actually caused me to wake up freaked out.

This got me thinking about the precautions I've taken to secure my own collection. Today I'll cover some of these principles.

Dos

Know What You Have

As I discovered after the fire in my kitchen this year you need to know the contents of your collection. Trying to remember what you had before a loss is difficult and there's a high probability you'll miss something.

This is the reason it's a good idea to write down the serial numbers of all your expensive electronic devices (TV's, Stereos, Ipods, etc.) The same principle applies to high-dollar cards in your collection. You'll also want to record their condition.

Should your stuff be stolen this information serves two purposes. It can help get your stuff back if the police catch the perpetrator in a timely manner. But more importantly this information will help with insurance claims.

After all, if you tell your insurance agent that you had 2-3 Underground Seas, 3-4 Tundras, 1-2 Bayous, etc...what they hear is 2, 3, 1. While it may not be efficient to list every card (or even every rare) I would set the bar at $10 or more.

Follow Your Own Guidelines

This should seem obvious, but can be difficult to maintain sometimes. If you're at a prerelease with a bunch of Standard-only players who are willing to trade out Modern and Legacy staples for new cards, it can be difficult to ask them to hold on while you complete each trade one at a time (as you don't want to upset potential traders), but you need to stick to your rules. Every trade should get your full attention (minus watching your personal stuff). As sad as it is, every potential trader is a potential thief (even when they come off nice).

Contact Authorities Immediately If Something Happens

This should also be obvious, but should your cards be stolen you'll want to contact the authorities immediately. As soon as you're aware that something is missing, write down all the details you can think of. What time it is, when you believe the cards went missing, relevant information about those around you, any details or distinguishing marks on the cards (like a signed Foil JTMS).

It's also wise to look around and see if there happen to be any cameras that might have caught the perpetrator(s). (If you're very cautious you could look for them before setting up shop to make sure you have one on you).

I realize this may not be easy at big events, but half the reason these thieves keep working events is because when cards get stolen, the players who are robbed get upset but don't do anything else. You can bet if you were a store you'd call the police if cards were stolen out of your case.

"Stuff" Rules

Keep your entire trade collection in one bag - I still see people walking around venues with bags and stuff in their arms. I understand the desire to have as much trade stock as possible, but the chance of you putting the binder down and/or forgetting it is much higher than forgetting your bag.
Keep your bag strap wrapped around your leg at all times. A new tactic of thieves is for one member of the group to distract the mark and another to pull their bag away and walk away quickly. With the bag around your leg this tactic won't work.
Keep your bag zipped up. It's not that hard for someone walking by to stoop down to "tie their shoe", slip their hand into your bag and grab a deck or small binder.
Keep your binders/bags marked clearly. It's a lot harder to steal a binder that is brightly colored and marked than one that looks like all the others. This will prevent people with a bunch of trade binders from just picking up "all the binders" at the table and snagging one of yours.

Don'ts

Don't Flaunt Your Collection

I know it's tempting to have a "brag binder" or mention your foiled-out RUG Delver deck. But in all honesty there is nothing to gain from this and everything to lose.

The person you're saying this to won't make an amazing trade just to help you finish off a new deck or congratulate you for all the effort you've put in. But they might now see you as a great mark which could make them a lot of money very quickly.

If you have stuff that isn't for trade, then there's no reason to mention it. I realize that everyone has that "well if the offer is good enough" thought, but be honest, when has that ever occurred? My friend Eric mentions that all the time and he upsets potential trade partners when they realize "good enough" is a pretty ridiculous demand.

Don't Lend Cards Except to Close Friends

This is another obvious one but I've seen people loan cards to near-complete strangers who asked. I can never understand this as the card owner assumes all risk and gains nothing but someone's gratitude (at best) and at worst gets back damaged cards or nothing.

There's another challenge when it comes to lending cards to friends. You need to protect your own investment but should something go wrong it can be difficult to bring it up. My friends know they can borrow whatever they need from me, but if the cards get damaged or stolen they have to replace them or "buy them" at TCG Mid prices.

This eliminates my personal risk and allows them to play the decks they want to. They also don't charge me for gas and split prizes or cover my entry fee to show their appreciation for me fronting them the cards they need.

Don't Keep Cards in Your Car's Back Seat

The safest place in your car is the trunk. Having cards or bags in the back seat, visible to anyone who walks by, is just an indicator that there is "money" in the car and encourages people to do a quick smash-and-grab for some easy money.

Nykthos or Mutavault? Questioning My Devotion

Posted on February 12, 2014February 12, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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Have you checked the price of Mutavault lately? It was not at all surprising to see it jump right back into Standard playability, but I definitely underrated just how many decks would want it. With as little multi-color support as there is it feels like I'm playing against Mutavault in at least every other match. Meanwhile I had been sticking with Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx.

I was able to win 35 QPs in January pretty by easily chaining Burning-Tree Emissary into Fanatic of Mogis time and again. I had a plan for every matchup and felt favored in all of them- even slightly so against Master of Waves. Then February rolled around and suddenly I can't buy a win with the deck. Perhaps my matchups weren't as good as I thought they were. Perhaps variance is just catching up with me. Either way, if the new removal spells in Born of the Gods weren't already pushing me away from Nykthos, my losing streak certainly is.

I had been interested in trying the R/w burn deck for a while, but with a quality Standard deck I didn't see much reason to pick a new pony. Recent poor results combined with praise for Satyr Firedancer from Brad Nelson and Caleb Durward solidified my desire to try something new. While Devotion and Burn are dramatically different decks, the fundamental difference is that Burn is a Mutavault deck and Devotion is a Nykthos deck.

Nykthos is more powerful than Mutavault when it's on, therefore in Magical Christmas Land one should always play the Nykthos deck.. Nykthos takes big board states and makes them bigger. Mutavault, on the other hand, allows a player to beatdown with their lands even when their spells fail. If a pair of Ash Zealots eat a Bile Blight, Nykthos turns to crap. If Young Pyromancer and his Elemental friends Drown in Sorrow, Mutavault continues to fight the good fight.

While it'll be a little while before I can start getting down to the nitty-gritty on MODO with Burn, I was able to get the deck together for a small Standard tournament on Saturday. I played something very close to Brad's list:

R/w Burn

spells

4 Shock

4 Searing Blood

4 Boros Charm

4 Lightning Strike

4 Chandra's Phoenix

3 Young Pyromancer

4 Satyr Firedancer

3 Warleader's Helix

4 Magma Jet

3 Skullcrack

lands

4 Mutavault

2 Boros Guildgate

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Temple of Triumph

9 Mountain

sideboard

1 Skullcrack

1 Young Pyromancer

1 Oracle of Bones

4 Chained to the Rocks

4 Toil // Trouble

4 Firedrinker Satyr

Over the course of the tournament I beat two Naya decks, one Blue Devotion and split matches against both UW control and Black Devotion. The deck felt like gas the entire day, though the list is definitely rough. The fact that the deck seemed sweet despite a number of flaws shows a lot of promise. I find that the best way to analyze a deck is in terms of individual cards, so let's dig right into it.

Satyr Firedancer

This card is incredible against creature decks. It's no secret that Searing Blaze is more impactful than Lightning Strike, and making all of your removals go to the dome- or perhaps more importantly making your Boros Charms hit creatures- makes creature-based matchups a cakewalk.

Alternatively, this card is pretty close to trash against control decks and Black Devotion. Control decks for their lack of creatures and Black Devotion for their ability to kill it any time it's relevant. So, when you have this card that is amazing in some matchups and sucks in others you have two choices- Maindeck it to crush the matchups where it's good or sideboard it to try to gain value in worse matchups.

Lately I've seen far more creature decks than control decks. In particular GR Monsters has really taken off. That said, I fully expect Black Devotion to be the most played deck post-Born of the Gods. The biggest question is how much sideboarding Satyr Firedancer actually hurts the matchups where it's good. If decks like Red, Blue and Green Devotion as well as Monsters are favorable without Firedancers then I would highly recommend leaving it as a sideboard option.

The card is absolutely powerful, I just need to figure out exactly what I want to do with it.

Young Pyromancer

Having any of these on the sideboard was plainly a mistake. Where Firedancer loses value when your opponent doesn't have creatures, Young Pyromancer makes all of your cards more effective simply by casting them. It generates power and chump blockers in racing situations in addition to being a one-man army against control decks. I don't see myself maindecking less than four in the future.

Searing Blood

My first impression of this card did not rate it as highly as most others. My evaluation was off. I must have forgotten that Standard is currently a lot like the current MTGO Cube; under-powered.

Starting with the obvious, it's awesome when it kills something. While it doesn't kill everything, there are actually quite a few played two-toughness creatures as of now. But the real value of Searing Blood is gleaned from the fact that two-spelling a creature with it is like casting Doom Blade and Lava Spike. Is that a great use of two cards? No. Is it better than a 3-4 mana Doom Blade with the text "discard a card"? Considerably.

Searing Blood is obviously at its worst against control decks, but even there most lists tend to be jamming around three Elspeths. When they play and up an Elspeth your Searing Bloods basically turn into Lava Spike. Not the most exciting, but we're talking about a deck that plays four Shock. We have to take what we can get.

And the Rest

Then you fill the deck up with burn spells and the obligatory Chandra's Phoenixes. She isn't pretty, but she gets the job done. Going forward the immediate changes I would try would be to move all the Firedancers to the sideboard and replacing them with Skullcrack and Young Pyromancer number four along with a pair of Chained to the Rocks. I'd also consider cutting a Mountain and a Boros Guildgate for a red scryland and a white scryland. The land change is subtle, but a Shock deck really can't afford too many dead draws.

The Sideboard

Firedrinker Satyr

At a glance this guy looks awesome against control, and admittedly I did win game three of my top four match against UW by drawing two of these guys on the play, but its quality hinges heavily on variance. If you have one on turn one you get a free two points and a reasonably likely two more. Not bad. However, a single Fiendslayer Paladin or Detention Sphere can put all of your Satyrs to shame. There are some cards worth sandbagging to play around Detention Sphere blowouts, but a 2/1 without haste against a stack of Jace, Elspeth and Azorius Charm is not one of those cards.

With Fiendslayer Paladin being as common as it is out of the sideboard I'm inclined to find a new game plan. Stormbreath Dragon was usually awesome against UW out of Red Devotion, so that's the first thing I'd try. It's a bit expensive for a 23 land deck, so I'd likely only play one or two.

Oracle of Bones

Brad had two of these in the list he posted. I was skeptical so I only included one and I regretted having any. You play it, your opponent pays tribute, you get to resolve one of the burn spells that you inevitably would anyway, your opponent goes to 14 and then blocks with Fiendslayer Paladin. Hard pass.

These notes in mind, that leaves the following remaining in the sideboard:

That leaves three slots. One thing that the list I played was lacking that Red Devotion had was trumps against Black Devotion. Burn can't really support Hammer of Purphoros, but I'm all for jamming some Assemble the Legions.

That leaves one slot. There are a lot of options here. Anger of the Gods or Mizzium Mortars to hose Devotion decks, Warleader's Helix for the mirror, Glare of Heresy for Unflinching Courage/Detention Sphere. I'm going to try a copy of Boros Reckoner for the immediate future. It's a good enough body for attacking, but the real reason I want Reckoner specifically is that in many situations it has potential to invalidate combat from aggressive decks or decks with big green monsters. It might not be a great fit for this shell, but I think it's worth a shot. That leaves us with the following 75:

R/w Burn

spells

4 Shock

4 Searing Blood

4 Boros Charm

4 Lightning Strike

4 Chandra's Phoenix

4 Young Pyromancer

2 Chained to the Rocks

3 Warleader's Helix

4 Magma Jet

4 Skullcrack

lands

4 Mutavault

1 Boros Guildgate

1 Temple of Malice

1 Temple of Silence

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Temple of Triumph

8 Mountain

sideboard

2 Chained to the Rocks

4 Toil // Trouble

4 Satyr Firedancer

2 Stormbreath Dragon

2 Assemble the Legion

1 Boros Reckoner

I'll be sure to keep updates coming as I learn more about the deck. For now, I can say to a certainty that the deck is powerful in this format. I feel like the deck plays worse against control than Red Devotion, but considerably better against Blue Devotion. If the GR Monsters matchup turns out to be favorable and the the control and Black Devotion matchups can be figured out then I will absolutely stay on this deck.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

Jason’s Alticle: Waiting for Born of the Godot

Posted on February 11, 2014February 11, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Braumeisters!

So, how about those Born of the Gods cards shaking up the metagame?

Shallow Impact

From an initial poke around the web, it seems like two unbannings and one banning did more to shake up the metagame in Modern than printing an entire set did to shake up Standard. We have seen a few exciting builds, and a few cards are likely to continue to climb in price, but this release has been pretty lackluster.

Now we can hardly expect a repeat of Theros with a Pro Tour coming right on its heels, showing us the immediate impact of splashy (pardon the pun) creatures like Master of Waves. Born of the Gods cards don't appear to be making as much of an immediate impact, but there is brewing occurring if you know where to look.

The real question is, should we have look so hard? With a Super Sunday Series event played over the weekend--No, I don't know what that is, really--and an SCG Open as well, shouldn't we see the set's impact conspicuously front and center?

My guess is that yes, we probably should, but maybe the fact that this set is taking a bit to catch on can provide us with some financial opportunities. With a few games of Standard played at the Super Sunday Series Shampionchip, what breakthrough tech did Wizards feel was worth mentioning?

Archangel of Thune was already on its way up before people got wind of this deck. I think Courser of Kruphix granting Archangel of Thune landfall is kind of cute, but my gloomy proclamations about Courser being the "bad half of Oracle of Mul Daya" missed the part where Courser also gives you a life for playing a land. This is kind of weak in the grand scheme of things, but it does play nice with Archangel.

With so many three-toughness removal spells in vogue right now, Courser may be tough to remove and may give you some reach. I still think this combo is more cute than good, but being cute and not good has never stopped a card from Fist of Suns-ing its way to $10.

I don't know if Courser of Kruphix is a $10 card; the $5ish it's currently at seems about right to me, but if people scramble for these in the short term you may be able to benefit if you have them now. I still think this combo is made possible by the insanity of Archangel of Thune, but the SS Cheap Copies set sail a week or so ago and didn't file a voyage plan with the harbormaster.

The rest of the deck seems like a "Bant Goodstuff" list, which I am fine with considering I am a big Bant fan from way back. I imagine people were hoping the deck would jam a few more Brimaz, King of Oreskos, but two is plenty in this deck given its legendary status. Brimaz brings a ton of dudes to the party that are begging for counters from Archangel and his synergy with the deck is undeniable.

I still think he is easily the best card in the set, but he didn't impact the metagame as much as some people holding copies had hoped. I think you're glad if you bought in at $20, nervous if you bought in at $30 and boned if you bought in at $40, provided you were trying to invest at $40, that is.

I can see the card holding that price for a bit, provided nothing else from the set shoots up in price and it gets a little more play than as a two-of in a cutesy Bant list.

Ephara's Followers

Ephara, God of the Polis was a card I gave quite the hedgey review of in the Quiet Speculation spoiler page, and with good reason. The card is obviously powerful, but I felt like taking advantage of it forced you to play badly unless you were in a very specific deck.

I thought that if a U/W aggro deck could come around you would get a few draw triggers and maybe enough devotion for Ephara to join the fray. But considering the Theros block U/W deck was bad, I didn't know if it would come to fruition.

Ephara in this list benefits from the Detention Spheres and the double white in Archangel and Brimaz, but its inclusion as a one-of speaks to the likelihood that it's mostly there as an enchantment that draws you a card off of Brimaz, something I am fine with. Brimaz is, off the top of my head, the only zero-mana way to make creatures on their turn that would fit this deck, and it's already a good card.

Ultimately is this deck going to be a Standard competitor? It certainly has a lot of synergy. It may be the best Archangel of Thune deck. It may even be the best Brimaz deck we've seen so far. Ephara is icing here, but hardly a centerpiece.

Magic miscreant Deathnstuff, aka Joey D, stumbled upon some tech out of Japan. It seems Saito's card shop, Super Happy Fun Times Cards Adventureland (I am exaggerating with the name, but only a little) streams their FNMs and a U/W aggro deck with Ephara at the center was doing well. Joey let everyone know on everyone's favorite website.

I don't think an FNM deck is reason to go balls deep on Ephara, but I don't think ignoring tech out of Japan, least of all Saito's shop, is the best course of action either. Thundermaw Hellkite was a $10 card when I got wind of its popularity at Saito's shop and we all know how that turned out.

The Japanese were ahead of the curve on G/R Aggro and I think this one is worth watching. I wouldn't buy in or trade in yet, but Ephara is currently the same price as Karametra on a few websites, and that ain't right.

Bile Blight & Herald

I figured Brimaz would join the ranks of W/B Midrange, and I am pleased to see Bile Blight there. BB has been tested alongside the other BB, the one that makes tokens with the same name rather than obliterate them, in Modern Faeries, and it's silly. Bile Blight kills roughly half of Modern creatures and doubles as a sweeper against token decks, including Splinter Twin. This card does serious work, and has the potential to be one of those silly $4 uncommons in the short term.

But Bile Blight shuts off the "other" B/W deck, the aggressive humans build with Xathrid Necromancer. Between its imminent reprint in an event deck and how badly Bile Blight and Drown in Sorrow embarrass the tokens it spits out, I would sell Xathrid before buylists get wise and stop accepting them. B/W builds will probably need to look a bit more like this to get there.

A B/W aggro deck would have been a good home for perhaps the set's best-kept secret, Herald of Torment. Outclassed by Desecration Demon in midrange, I expect Herald to nevertheless find traction somewhere. I wasn't a huge fan during spoiler season, but I may have been so bearish on the set as a whole I didn't even bother to check for silver linings.

My podcast cohosts and a lot of brewers I trust are bullish on Herald, and with its price eking up, I'm not so entrenched in my position that I won't examine its potential. With buy-in possible under $2 and the ceiling likely at around $5, you stand to lose as much as you stand to gain.

I'd wait for serious upward price movement before I wagered my own money on Herald, but with black so powerful and so many builds being tried, it seems a good bet that it will catch on somewhere. But better cards than this have become bulk rare orphans before, so I am not buying in now.

Brimaz is clearly the best card in the set, and it's fun to see all the shells where he pops up. I like how many tokens this deck can fart out. Sam Stoddard is usually pretty tight-lipped about what goes on in Future Future League, but he didn't think letting on how good Eidolon of Countless Battles was with token producers made him the next Edward Snowden. I imagine there was a deck using these two cards in conjunction in the league and it was pretty good.

Pride of the What Now?

One of my favorite FFL stories involves how they debated nerfing Pride of the Clouds because of how good the FFL fliers deck was with Pride routinely swinging as a 6/6 or 7/7 flier on turn four. When the set came out, zero craps were given and it became a bulk rare.

People were much more interested in Windreaver, which turned out to be a fart on toast. "If Morphling is bad in this set," everyone figured, "I guess U/W sucks", a statement I found myself agreeing with at the time. "Thanks for the four-mana counterspell I guess," I said, and moved on to jam R/W Burn in a format full of Dark Confidant. Court Hussar stole the spotlight, no one bothered with Pride of the Clouds and the FFL guys just shook their heads.

I can only speculate that Eidolon of Countless Battles is this set's undiscovered gem, but I do know that casuals are already eating this card up and with upside attached, it could be a good trade target. You're unlikely to sit on these and with your best outlet being people who don't focus too much on prices when trading, you won't lose a ton buying in.

I will wait until we see movement, although that strategy gets worse and worse the more efficient the market gets. Pretty soon we're going to have to start leaping as soon as we look.

This whole article kind of turned into the second half so I guess we'll just continue with the SCG Open results.

SCG Open Nashville

SCG Open Nashville Standard Decks

So although when I actually got writing I found a little bit of the set's impact on the metagame, you can understand why my initial feeling this morning amounted to, "Wow, this set did nothing." Consider the Open, won by a Mono-Blue Devotion deck with a grand total of zero Born of the Gods cards. We're off to a bit of a bad start.

I will admit I didn't expect G/R Monsters to jam four copies of Courser of Kruphix, but it must have helped since Kent Ketter got second place. I don't know how high above $5 this guy will stay, but at the very least people will want them in the short term.

A John Medina-less legit is selling 38 copies for $5, and while a lot of presale prices tend to tank, $5 feels okay to me on this guy.

How much financial opportunity is there in buying a card at the right price? I can't say. I will say it has to get played quite a bit for the increase in demand to keep up with supply, but $10 Desecration Demon warns of potential future overpayment. I think if you want these to play with, you won't be unhappy you paid $5.

Dylan Harris stayed away from Brimaz entirely, preferring the Whipzedat combo whose premature death I usually lament. Bile Blight benefits the deck and that was all the help Harris felt he needed from the new set.

I liked Fated Retribution for EDH but Standard players appear content paying seven for an instant-speed wrath as well. Chris Yarbrough was at least, as well as the Bant Midrange deck above and some others over the weekend. Determined not to have that be the set's only contribution, he jimmy-jammed three Brimaz in the board because it's a good card, I heard.

"Thanks for the Bile Blight." - Cody Howard. The set has other cards, but when you're playing Mono-Black and your deck is already insane, do you care?

Jessie Butler's W/B Midrange deck also appreciates the Bile Blight, but would rather play Alms Beast than Brimaz. Talk about a budget beater.

Add Michael Majors to the list of strong, independent blue mages who don't need no Born of the Gods.

Kaleb Byrd jammed a new-looking green-white deck that showcases a phenomenon Sam Stoddard mentioned when discussing Brimaz. Brimaz's four toughness (what's brought up more often lately is Courser of Kruphix's four toughness, but bear with me) makes it dodge a lot of good removal and makes possible decks that weren't before.

While G/W is hardly new, this particular build seems possible almost solely via the contribution of Brimaz. Voice of Resurgence tokens become potent with Brimaz around, virtually shutting off instants for fear of creating a monster they can't deal with. I like almost all G/W builds I have seen, but this seems like an especially focused deck.

The return to white-heavy from green-heavy means you eschew Experiment One for Soldier of the Pantheon, something that makes me happy. Soldier eats it to Brimaz's tokens, though, so that investment of mine may not pan out like I hoped. Still, I am hoping how well Soldier plays with Brimaz mitigates how badly he plays against Brimaz.

Adrian Sullivan finished 9th, and it's worth mentioning because it's Adrian Sullivan. Them's the (tie)breaks. For the record, Sully played zero new cards as well.

10th place was a deck I wanted to see more of, a deck using Xenagos the God as well as his Fantic. Not as monstery but more aggroey, I expected more builds like this. I was never super bullish on Fanatic, but $0.60 seems like a pittance.

$4 Boros Charms and $3 Experiment Ones in short terms makes this price puzzling, unless the card is as good as I thought which makes it less good than everyone else thought. Post-rotation, the smaller card pool may buoy this card a bit, so I wouldn't hate filling a box if these fall below half a buck.

Shane Giachetti managed 14th with a cool-looking, innovative brew. Some of his choices seemed odd, but Sylvan Primordial seems okay in a format lousy with Spears and Bidents and Underworld Connections. His reach is relevant, his ramp is relevant and EDH players everywhere are throwing foil copies into trash cans.

Is the tribute mechanic that bad? This deck uses the only tribute cards in the set I actually like, Nessian Demolok and Nessian Wilds Ravager--cards I liked in Limited, but cards I liked all the same.

Standard has absorbed the new set but I don't think it has quite digested it yet. The coming weeks should see more brewing. I am not even going to bother reading the Legacy results with an eye toward cards from Born of the Gods. We ate a lot of dinner just now, let's have dessert.

SCG Open Nashville Legacy Decks

Rug Delver piloted by Taylor Scott is a no-nonsense build. Four copies of good cards, some tempo and some luck was all it took to win the day. Not much to say here other than, "Tier 1 decks win events."

Dylan Jones' Sneak and Show deck is more of the same. This deck will be a contender until we get a compelling reason not to play it.

Thomas Graves piloting Elves to third place is fun. This deck still needs Deathrite Shaman, and any card too good for Modern is worth playing in Legacy if you ask me. I felt that way the first time I saw someone Bloodbraid Elf into Ancestral Vision in a Legacy game.

Eric Rill wins "Pet deck of the week" with his ANT finish. This deck is another "any given Sunday" sort of deck and I love to see it perform well.

We have to go all the way down to 5th place to find our first two copies of True-Name Nemesis. With talks of banning it, I always maintained that what we really needed was a chance for the novelty to wear off. Yes, the card is good. So is every card in Legacy.

Bug Delver in 6th also used the Nemesis as a two-of. As long as BUG is a contender in Legacy, I am a buyer at $5ish on Deathrite Shaman.

Lands isn't a Pet Deck anymore. With Thespian's Stage and Dark Depths in the format, the deck got a lot of attention recently. It used to be a cheap deck if you didn't count the Tabernacle, but lots of cards in the deck are spiking. Legacy lands continue to go up, and I think it's a good time to hoard Ancient Tomb.

8th place was a BUG deck, both Shardless and TNN-less. Maybe Nemesis would have helped, maybe tiebreakers would have helped. Either way, Vendilion Clique is a good card and can do just as much work as old TNN, especially in decks that don't focus on equipment.

Decks That Never Shut Up

9th place was High Tide, another "any given Sunday" deck that is so annoying to play against I am glad Feline Longmore got 9th. 9th place sucks, but so does playing against High Tide.

All kidding aside, Longmore is one of the best High Tide players on the SCG circuit, if not the best. I hope she gets 9th every week because she deserves to do well for being such a good High Tide player and deserves to get 9th because %&*^ High Tide.

If Sneak and Show is the Chad of decks, High Tide is the Sheldon from Big Bang Theory of decks. It goes on and on until you would rather concede than watch someone goldfish for another ten minutes. With (correct me if I am wrong) a first-place finish with the deck, Longmore is someone to watch out for and I hope your sideboard has something to improve what is likely to be a miserable matchup.

Again with the "correct me if I'm wrong," but isn't the black-white aggro deck in 10th called "Rogue Dead Guy"? With deck names seldom related to the deck's contents and my knowledge of esoteric Legacy trivia lacking a bit, I tend to just use the names SCG applies to the decks, which can eliminate a lot of the nuanced differences between different builds.

No matter what you call this deck, I like it. I think you are better off jamming good cards than being cute and using Squadron Hawks to feed your Liliana, although with so much equipment you are never super upset to have another flier.

Loxodon Smiter in the board seems odd to me. Not sure at all what problems that is solving, but I am sure the deckbuilder had something in mind. Chalice on three? Opposing Liliana? Strange sideboard choices here.

I think a few people touted UWR Miracles as a way to deal with True-Name Nemesis, but it appears to be a solved problem. Still, Andrew Morrow managed 13th with it.

I don't want to delve too deep into the Legacy results. We saw old, established decks come back and handle the TNN decks without any need for bannings. We saw that decks people having been playing for years and years continue to be competitive and we saw that not every set is going to shake up the format.

What to Do?

How do we know what to buy right now and what to sell? My best advice is what it has been every three months for the last two years.

Build some decks, test some matchups and learn some stuff. Follow pros and Twitter and Facebook. Find out what your local playgroup is on. And for the love of Ephara, someone break Eidolon of Countless Battles already. Sam Stoddard won't be able to sleep until you do.

Insider: [MTGO] Converting Your Tix Into Cash

Posted on February 11, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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Today I will discuss how to convert tix online into actual, real-world cash. This is the final, nonetheless essential, step in the process of successful investment on MTGO.

Hopefully, after several fruitful speculations your bankroll has grown enough and now you want to get some of your benefits back. Just like with selling and buying, depending on the time and effort you spend to transform your digital currency into real currency, you may extract more or less value from your tix.

As discussed in my article about buying tix, my reference price when selling tix is $0.95/tix. You can always try to sell your tix for more, or for more than what you buy them for, but remember that the overall goal here is to speculate on cards, not on tix.

Selling to Stores

Mtgotraders

Speaking of reference price, Mtgotraders buy tix at 0.95$ a unit, at least until last November. When the suspension of MTGO events was announced, Mtgotraders decreased their buying price from $0.95 to $0.90/tix, making it much less attractive.

In the past, I have sold them hundreds of tix, several times a year. They can absorb a large quantity of tix at a time. In addition, they are friendly, efficient, and most of all trustworthy.

Also, back then, I was in the US but my PayPal account was still in euros. To avoid potential fees using PayPal I opted for a bank check, which they offered as one form of payment. I usually received the check within a week. If you don't have a PayPal account and/or want to avoid potential fees, this is an option you may want to consider.

Mtgotickets

Like Mtgotraders, Mtgotickets are buying tix now for $0.90. So far I haven't used them. They also run an offer on the Classifieds. While they don't propose the best buying prices, it's good to know another place where you can go and easily unload tix.

To a Single Person

eBay

These days, there's pretty much no competition if you want to sell your tix on eBay, and that's probably for a good reason: eBay will net you the lowest return of all possible options.

At first, it doesn't seem like it. Auctions on tix frequently end with a price of about $1.00/tix. As you know, eBay has some fees, 10% of the final price. Then, since you are likely to paid by PayPal, you will have to apply PayPal fees, around 4%.

All together, if you sell 100 tix, you'll be left with something around $87 in your pocket…assuming your final price reached 100 tix for $100.

In sum, eBay can be a great place to buy tix or collections, but it's definitely not a good place to sell.

QS Trading Section

QS is a great place to sell (or buy) tix to QS members. This section of the forum is getting more and more active as new QS members join and more people turn to the MTGO market. It is up to you to propose the prices you want; $0.95/tix seem to be accepted as a general consensus for the moment.

The Classifieds

Selling directly in-game by posting your offer on the Classifieds is a pretty straightforward option. If you do a quick search, you will notice not so many people or stores are advertising for tix on the Classifieds. With your competitors right in full view, it is also easy to adjust your price, up or down, to make sure you stay competitive.

Selling tix through the Classifieds has, however, a few disadvantages.

First of all, if you're new in town, people are not going to trust you easily, and it may take time before becoming known as a trustworthy tix seller.
If people might be scared of you scamming them, you should also be vigilant about your potential customers. PayPal is the most widely used method of payment, along with the use of poker sites to transfer the money. You want to avoid selling tix to people using stolen credit cards or other types of fraudulent accounts. I'm not really sure what could happen in that case, but for sure you won't see your tix again. Until you know you can trust a client, selling your tix by small quantity is always a safe move.
Finally, and especially if you are a new dealer, it will probably take some time to find your first clients. I've never really tried to sell tix this way, but if you have some spare time and manage to build a reputation as a trustworthy tix seller I'm sure the Classifieds could become a primary place to sell your tix, and probably above $0.95/tix.

Sometimes, people on MTGO also propose buying offers via the Classifieds, around $0.92/tix. If the price looks interesting to you, make sure you are not getting scammed. Always play it safe.

Others

You can also sell tix via various other means. Any Mtg/MTGO forum is a potential place to advertise your tix, in accordance with the forum policy.

When I was looking to sell my first batch of tix, I posted an offer on Mtgsalvation. The owner of Mtgotraders was one of the first guys who contacted me and I sold my tix to them at $0.95/tix, the price I was willing to sell them for.

Another avenue is friends and acquaintances who play MTGO. Unless they can go infinite with drafts or Constructed, they will probably be happy to buy tix from you at a better price than anywhere else.

Alternative Ways to Cash Out

Selling Cards

An indirect option for cashing out of MTGO investments is to sell the digital cards directly. Since tix are much more versatile than cards, this method is unlikely to be successful. However, if you manage to sell cards, on eBay for instance, you might be able to get a little premium out of them, even after fees.

You have probably noticed some auctions for MTGO cards or sets on eBay. Their prices are ridiculously high, even higher than on usual MTGO stores. If you manage to sell some now and then, particularly cards from early sets or cards in demand, you might be able to make more than the equivalent of $0.95/tix in the end.

Here is a plausible example. As of last Friday, Spellskite is selling at 13.96 tix on Mtgotraders. You might be able to sell it at 12 tix or so to bots on MTGO. These 12 tix are worth $11.4 with our reference price. But if you can sell it on eBay for $14, after 14% fees you still have $12.04 in your pocket. You have "sold" 12 tix for $12.04, a pretty nice price in deed.

Redemption

The redemption system is the bridge between the virtual and real worlds of Mtg. For some fees, you can exchange a redeemable set on MTGO for the same set in real paper cards. Let's see if that can be a viable way to convert your tix or cards into cash.

Redeeming a set will cost you $25 per set ($5 for Return to Ravinca and older sets) plus shipping costs. The shipping costs are $2.99 per order within the US, and $29.99 per order for anywhere else in the world. Needless to say that you want to order several sets at a time, and these shipping fees are another big hurdle if you are not living in the US.

For example, a THS set is worth about 100 tix. Assuming you got your tix at $0.95/tix, this THS set is worth $95. Say you want to redeem four sets, this is going to cost you 4 x 95 + 25 x 4 + 2.99, four THS sets for $120.75 each.

Making money with redeemed sets is not really a lucrative business. On eBay, you can see THS complete sets in BIN for about $165. Selling on eBay includes about 13% fees, meaning that people selling these THS sets will get only $143.55, and that doesn't take into account the shipping fees they will have to pay to deliver the set to the buyer. In the end, that's less than $20 profit, and you are not going to sell complete sets ten times a day.

For our concerns, if you can get $105 for a THS set on eBay (including eBay/PayPal, shipping, and redemption fees), you have "sold" 100 tix for $105, or $1.05/tix. That is a significant 10.5% increase compare to $0.95/tix. Still, this requires some work and time for a minimal profit.

In my opinion, your best shot here would probably be to try to get in touch with your LGS and see if they are willing to buy complete sets. With the same initial cost for a redeemed THS set ($120.75), if you can sell several sets for about $130 it becomes an interesting way to get an extra 10-15% for your tix as compared to the $0.95$/tix baseline. According to what your LGS needs, you may also redeem other sets.

Selling Digital Sets

Alternatively, something I have tried which removes some of the burden is to sell digital sets on eBay. Last November, I completed four THS sets for 97.8 tix each. Since at that time redemption was on hold, I decided to sell them as-is on eBay.

I listed my sets at $135 each. I sold two of them in December, and nothing else since then. Once I had paid all fees, I was left with $116.99, a very nice rate of $1.19/tix. However, as you guessed it, selling two sets in two months is not really a reliable way to sell tix, even if the price is absurdly high.

I was also trying to sell these sets directly on the Classifieds, for $110 each, with no success so far, mainly because I can't have my offer online 24/7.

Among all these options, I hope you'll find one to efficiently sell tix for cash returns on your MTGO investments.

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Comparing Standard to Modern

Posted on February 10, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Last weekend in Nashville we were able to watch the first Star City Games Standard Open with Born of the Gods in the format. Like every new set, this one drew some anticipation as to what cards would make a splash.

Would a new deck archetype surface thanks to the new mana-fixing Temples? Would the set’s few power cards shift the balance and push a Tier-1.5 deck up to Tier 1 status? Most importantly, would we identify the next Angel of Serenity or Boon Satyr, enabling quick-flip profits?

In this writer’s opinion, the answer so far is a resounding “no”.

Quick Numbers: Top 8

Two Mono-Blue Devotion decks made Top 8, neither of which ran any cards from Born of the Gods. These decks succeeded as if no new cards had entered the format. One Mono-Black Devotion deck also broke into the Top 8, with only updated removal spells representing the newest set. No opportunities there.

Breaking down the entire Top 8, the Born of the Gods card that appeared most (besides Temples) was Bile Blight, with an underwhelming count of seven. Other than Temples, the only two rares to show up were four copies of Courser of Kruphix and one Fated Retribution. The only mythic rare to appear in Top 8 was Brimaz, King of Oreskos, which showed up as a two-of in one deck.

Talk about underwhelming.

Many players anticipated this set would be weak relative to the rest of the format and last weekend’s results were certainly consistent with this observation. Despite a ton of hype around a Bant Walkers deck running three Kiora, the Crashing Wave piloted by Brian Braun-Duin, the deck ended in a mildly interesting 31st place.

Of course, when Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver broke onto the scene it received similar hype for one or two weeks. The hype resulted in a temporary price bump to around $25 before settling far lower.

It’s not impossible for Kiora to experience a similar trend. The SCG announcers were pushing her pretty significantly, and naïve speculators are prone to giving in to emotional hype.

But if Ashiok’s performance is any indicator, I’d suggest staying away from Kiora for now unless you can capitalize on Kiora’s hype very rapidly (i.e. trade for her and trade her away within days). Unless Kiora sees greater success in the next couple weeks she will definitely plummet in price much as Ashiok did.

Of course, if Kiora does win major events then all bets are off. She could take off and hit $50 like other mythic rares tend to when they initially make their break in a new Standard format. But keep in mind as additional quantities are opened her price will decline--tread carefully when speculating here.

What’s Next

This leads me to the second portion of my article. The more I read about Standard the more I yawn. It feels like the format has reached some sort of steady state, with the same few decks winning over and over again. Although it’s still early, I fear Born of the Gods won’t do much for the format.

For these reasons, and because Standard cards frequently tank in price post-release (except for the one or two that spike first before dropping), I am still keeping my focus on Modern.

Let’s face facts--every card printed in Scars of Mirrodin block or earlier that seems some Modern play has appreciated in value. Even cards that are two-ofs in exactly one Modern deck have risen significantly.

Sideboard cards are even getting attention from speculators. I’ve noticed Meddling Mage show up as an mtgstocks.com interest a number of times now due to a steady rise. Although still under the $2 price line, Torpor Orb is another sideboard card that has risen significantly lately.

$1.50 may seem uninspiring, but the fact that this card has tripled in value over the last year is actually incredible. There aren’t enough copies available online to make a million bucks here, but when this card was under a buck, few bets more sure than this one existed.

The rising tide that is Modern demand has caused all prices to rise. Anything that sees play has been a solid investment over the past few months. With Modern season approaching, this effect is likely to magnify.

Be Aware of Risk

I have just one caution when it comes to investing deeply in Modern: watch out for reprints. Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant aside, some Modern Masters reprints have not participated in the recent rally. A great example would be Kitchen Finks, which is a solid Modern card that has monotonically dropped in price since its reprinting in Modern Masters.

This trend applies to more than just the MMA uncommons. Consider Vedalken Shackles, which was reprinted in MMA as a mythic rare and has done nothing but drop in price since the reprint.

Where others see a negative trend, I see opportunity. While the increase in supply certainly merits a price drop, I can’t help but believe the selling is a bit overdone. As Modern Masters slowly integrates into people’s collections, the number of copies available for trade and purchase will decrease. And when Modern season rolls around, these will dry up fairly rapidly.

Net, if you’re looking for a new angle to invest in Modern, consider MMA cards which see plenty of play but have been negatively impacted by the reprint. This suggestion is consistent with the mantra “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

It appears people are uncomfortable speculating on these reprints, but that only generates an opportunity for us to make bank on cheap Modern cards. Over the next couple months, these cards will be some of my primary targets and I’d suggest you consider them as well.

The only other unknown: what the Modern Event Deck will bring. This is difficult to predict because the list of possibilities is quite long.

My general attitude is that the number of cards that will be reprinted in this Event Deck is small relative to the size of the format. Therefore I do not intend to change my investing strategy at all. I run the risk of holding a few cards that will suffer in price due to the Event Deck but this will hopefully be counteracted by the remaining Modern cards’ rise in price as we head into the season.

Standard Shmandard

I am being fairly harsh on Standard, but for good reason. Why try to speculate on what cards may see an increase in play when we know Modern cards will continue to rise in price? The risk/reward equation just isn’t there on Standard. At least not for me.

If Kiora breaks out next week, of course I’ll be scouring the internet looking for cheap copies. But I have no interest in buying into any new Standard cards before they are proven.

There just is no motivation for me to do so when I know my money will be effective in Modern playables. And with Modern Masters creating new opportunities for investing, namely in playable reprints, I have even less motivation to make unnecessary gambles. The money is simply too easy in Modern right now.

This may change if Wizards announces a Modern Masters 2 but at this point the likelihood this happens before Modern season takes place is nearly zero. Therefore the demand will far outpace supply, leading to further price increases in this growing format. The numbers don’t lie.

…

Sigbits

Want more evidence that Modern Masters supply is finally drying up? Look no further than Modern Masters Booster Boxes. These used to sell for $250 all day online, and now the cheapest buy-it-now on eBay is $288 shipped. SCG has shown their expectations by pricing their seven boxes at $349.99.
Bitterblossom’s unbanning had a drastic impact on many card prices. One of my favorite examples is Cryptic Command--SCG has just a few in stock, and NM copies retail for $39.99 now. I only expect this to go higher. This, despite the reprint in Modern Masters.
On the flip side, SCG has a couple hundred Kitchen Finks in stock. This indicates that any price increase is not quite on the horizon yet. But at some point these should bottom out. The potential is certainly higher on the rares and mythic rares from MMA and I’d look there to invest first. But assuming Finks don’t see additional reprints, they should inevitably rise again.

Insider: Liliana of the Veil in Modern

Posted on February 7, 2014January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Earlier this week, we got the news that Deathrite Shaman would be banned in Modern, while at the same time Wild Nacatl and Bitterblossom would become legal. It looks like this was an effort to bring the Jund archetype back to the rest of the pack while at the same time shaking up the format by adding some new options.

No doubt you've heard a bit about the price of Bitterblossom this week. The price on various other Fae components has similarly been affected.

Through the price increases seen this past week, the market is predicting that Fae decks will become a significant component of the Modern metagame. The truth of this, and the eventual price level on Bitterblossom, won't be known until the Modern metagame reestablishes itself.

In contrast to the large price increase on Bitterblossom, the MTGO market has seen the writing on the wall for Jund, and Liliana of the Veil had plunged from about 73 tix to 58 tix as of Wednesday afternoon, the 5th of February.

This got my attention, and after doing a little reasoning, I decided that it was time to buy Liliana at that price. I also alerted Doug and he promptly got out an Insider Alert. Lily now sits at about 64 tix, which is just at the top end of the range I'd feel comfortable accumulating her for.

At prices above 50 tix it's hard to consider any card cheap. But a few signs point to it being undervalued. With some more research under my belt, I think I can say that the MTGO market had made a mistake by selling Liliana of the Veil down to sub-60 tix.

Paper Prices and Divergence

In reaction to the banning of Deathrite Shaman, the paper price of Liliana didn't budge an inch. In fact, it went up this week.

In technical analysis of the stock market this is called divergence--when two linked prices head in different directions. The trick is to figure out which one is heading in the 'wrong' direction.

Through redemption, we know that positive trends in paper prices will eventually dominate digital prices. As prices rise in paper, it becomes attractive to redeem sets. As sets are redeemed, the online supply shrinks (for sets not being drafted anyway). Through redemption, we should take a stable-to-rising paper price as a signal that a declining digital price constitutes a mistake made by an irrational market.

Why so Irrational?

Comparing paper to digital prices suggests that the MTGO market is acting foolishly. Adding more evidence to support this hypothesis will further solidify this spec.

It's easy to understand why a selloff of Liliana of the Veil has occurred on MTGO. Jund without Deathrite Shaman is surely a worse deck. And Bitterblossom will basically ignore Liliana. If Modern turns into a format of Jund without Deathrite Shaman and Fae decks packing Bitterblossom, then it's a sure thing that Liliana is overvalued. But that possibility seems remote.

GP Lincoln

Exhibit A should be Bronson Magnan's GP Lincoln-winning Aggro Loam deck back in early 2012. Notably this event took place in the winter prior to the release of Return to Ravnica, so Deathrite Shaman had yet to be unleashed on Modern.

Bronson's deck sought to abuse the graveyard as a resource by the power of dredge and Life from the Loam. Liliana of the Veil was featured as a three-of. A couple of the other heavy-hitters from Jund, Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant, were also present. Without Deathrite Shaman in the format as extremely flexible maindeck graveyard hate, graveyard-based strategies are going to find a higher power level, relatively speaking.

It's possible that Scavenging Ooze slots in as the maindeck graveyard hate option of choice and decks like Aggro Loam continue to sit below the top tier. However, not all decks will want to move towards Scavenging Ooze over Deathrite Shaman, so I think it's safe to say that decks powered by Life From the Loam will see a resurgence.

The price of Life From the Loam on MTGO has nearly doubled in the last three days, suggesting that this line of thinking is seeing broader adoption by speculators. Another card moving up from this deck is Countryside Crusher. Aggro Loam pushing back into the Modern metagame is a positive sign for the future utility (and price) of Liliana of the Veil.

GP Prague

As I detailed in the Insider Alert from Wednesday, two (non-Jund) decks featuring Liliana made a small splash at the recent GP in Prague.

Jan Miller finished in the money at 87th out of 1398 players with his mono-black discard deck. Largely eschewing creatures, it sought to rip your hand apart and win with Shrieking Affliction or The Rack. I've toyed around with this deck and it can be annoying to play against. I don't think it has the power to be a top-tier deck, but it should pop up from time to time as an unexpected archetype.

The other deck was piloted by Michele Bernardi to a 30th-place finish. This completely creatureless deck is a throwback to the super friends strategy, but in white, red and black. It plays Lily, Ajani Vengeant and Chandra, Pyromaster as its planeswalkers. Protecting these cards is a boatload of burn and Lingering Souls. The disruption package is headed by Smallpox and Boom // Bust, last seen being cast with Bloodbraid Elf's cascade.

I've been playing this deck quite a bit on MTGO over the past few weeks, and have gotten to know its ins and outs.

Boom // Bust is particularly interesting, as when you combine it with Flagstones of Trokair, it acts as a 2cc Stone Rain (with a little mana fixing thrown in). Even just combining it with a fetchland turns it into a standard Stone Rain. Naturally Smallpox is also well set up to combine with Flagstones of Trokair.

This deck absolutely pulverizes aggressive strategies such as Affinity and Zoo. It also does a number on Modern burn decks. It does have some trouble with Pod decks, and U/W/r decks are a bad match up.

All told, I think this is close to being a good deck, and one that takes quite a novel line of play when compared to the rest of the Modern field. I'm looking forward to slotting Bitterblossom into this build and taking it for a spin. But the backbone of the deck is the planeswalkers, with Liliana of the Veil doing lots of heavy lifting.

Hopefully this survey of some successful Modern decks featuring Lily gives you some confidence in speculating on this high-value item. If this card drops again below 60 tix, I'll pull out more tix and go even deeper, but I feel that the market should correct leading up to PT Valencia in a little over two weeks.