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The RED Campaign

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"Red is a very hot color. It’s associated with fire, violence, and warfare. It’s also associated with love and passion. In history, it’s been associated with both the Devil and Cupid. Red can actually have a physical effect on people, raising blood pressure and respiration rates. It’s been shown to enhance human metabolism, too.

Red can be associated with anger, but is also associated with importance (think of the red carpet at awards shows and celebrity events). Red also indicates danger (the reason stop lights and signs are red, and that most warning labels are red).

Outside the western world, red has different associations. For example, in China, red is the color of prosperity and happiness. It can also be used to attract good luck."

Color theory is quite an interesting concept in magic and in art. You can find the rest of the article HERE if that interests you.

Those red mages sure are lucky players aren't they? Regardless of the reason you play red, the fact is that it is really good right now. Even if you are not playing it, you will certainly have to play against it. Be ready for the flavors of red!

Fire, Violence, and Warfare:

David Caplan
2011 Worlds Top 8, Standard

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Goblin Fireslinger
3 Grim Lavamancer
1 Spikeshot Elder
4 Stromkirk Noble
4 Stormblood Berserker
4 Chandras Phoenix

Spells

3 Galvanic Blast
4 Gut Shot
2 Incinerate
2 Arc Trail
4 Shrine of Burning Rage
4 Volt Charge

Lands

21 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Arc Trail
4 Dismember
2 Traitorous Blood
2 Koth of the Hammer
4 Vulshok Refugee
1 Manic Vandal

Josh Milliken
Crushing online queues

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Stromkirk Noble
4 Spikeshot Elder
3 Reckless Waif
4 Stormblood Berserker
3 Chandras Phoenix
3 Hero of Oxid Ridge

Spells

4 Galvanic Blast
4 Arc Trail
4 Shrine of Burning Rage
4 Volt Charge

Lands

23 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Geistflame
4 Dismember
2 Traitorous Blood
2 Koth of the Hammer
3 Vulshok Refugee
1 Reckless Waif

It might seem ludicrous to compare my friends deck that is doing well online to one that just went undefeated in the Standard portion of the biggest tournament of the year, Worlds, but these two versions are a perfect example building your deck for an expected metagame.

Take a second and look over these two deck lists carefully. Try to see which version is geared towards beating which portion of the metagame.

Both these lists have a lot in common like tons of one cost creatures, eleven and twelve, a lot of cheap removal, and abusing the proliferate of Volt Charge. Both have a low mana curve but Caplan's takes his even lower by not running any four cost spells. This allows him to cut a couple lands to statistically increase his ability to draw relevant cards throughout the game rather than lands.

Anticipating a field of aggro, Caplan dedicates spots in his deck to specifically fighting those decks. One example of this is Gut Shot. Many creatures right now have a toughness of one like the mana creatures, many of the aggressive threats, and illusions in general. Gut Shot allows him to gain a huge tempo advantage against the aggro decks because he can play his threats while dealing with theirs simply by paying two life. Instead of Gut Shot, Josh plays Reckless Waif to beat down against the control decks. The free removal was clearly the right choice for the metagame at Worlds, but I am sure that the control decks will rise up again in response. With Josh's version, he sides out the Reckless Waifs and Hero of Oxid Ridges against opposing white aggro decks for more removal. Just like Caplan, Josh said he removes a land as well once the four costs are out of the deck.

Though these decks have many differences, they do show a trend towards Volt Charge over Brimstone Volley. Volt Charge has a full twelve cards to proliferate and it usually does an effective five damage because of the extra counters added to your permanents. The reason that Volt Charge is so good though is because not only is it a removal or burn spell, it is also a combat trick. This card drastically alters your opponents combat math and makes their decisions much more complex. To further the complexity, I might even go so far as to play one Brimestone Volley so they won't know which card you are representing with your three open mana.

If you want to be playing aggressive red, you have some choices to make. Think about each card you include in your deck and gear your version to beat the expected metagame. With this Standard format especially, you need to modify your deck each week with the metagame in mind. Your local FNM might not change that much from week to week, but if you are making it out to larger events, those players are paying attention to what decks are winning and so should you.

Red Means Danger!

It's a dangerous business, playing aggressive creatures right now. If your opponent goes turn one Mountain pass. You should think to yourself, they are representing Shock. That might change your play. When you are building your aggressive decks, one thing you should take into consideration is the amount of these one cost removal spells being played right now. Any type of controlling deck is going to be running Galvanic Blast, Wring Flesh, or Mortarpod to take out your early plays. Vapor Snag is catching on in a variety of decks as well.

Holy Shocks Batman, take a look at Junya Iyanaga's 1st place deck from Worlds!

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Birds of Paradise
4 Inferno Titan
4 Primeval Titan
4 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Thrun, the Last Troll

Spells

2 Devils Play
4 Galvanic Blast
2 Green Suns Zenith
4 Rampant Growth
1 Shock
3 Slagstorm
4 Sphere of the Suns

Lands

4 Copperline Gorge
5 Forest
4 Inkmoth Nexus
3 Kessig Wolf Run
6 Mountain
4 Rootbound Crag

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
4 Autumns Veil
1 Beast Within
1 Slagstorm
2 Sword of Feast and Famine
2 Thrun, the Last Troll
2 Tree of Redemption
1 Viridian Corrupter

I think Junya had aggressive decks in mind when he built this deck. With a whopping FIVE Shock effects and three Slagstorms, he really dominated the early game so his oppressive late game effective TEN titans could smash his opponent. One thing he cut to make room for all these cards was the Green Suns Zenith package. His two Green Suns Zeniths can only be Birds of Paradise, Thrun, the Last Troll, or Primeval Titan. Still an effective package main deck with some more targets in the sideboard. Cutting all Garruks from the deck is the part that is the hardest to believe for me. This might be the first version I have seen that runs zero copies of green planeswalkers. Interesting.

Most opponents could not have been prepared for the amount of removal he played main deck and that allowed him to go undefeated in Standard. His record was a total of 9-0 between Day 1 and the top eight. Even with gearing his deck to beating aggro, he still maintained a good control match by increasing the number of titans they have to deal with and finding room for two Devils Play to finish them off. This deck was built and played with such intellectual elegance, I would expect to see a lot more from this Japanese pro.

Right along the same lines of tons of red removal, is a spicy brew crushing it in online queues. Quiet Speculations own Corbin Hosler has been racking in the tickets on MTGO with a similar concept to to the Wolf Run Ramp deck. Check out Big RED!

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Solemn Simulacrum
4 Kuldotha Phoenix
1 Wurmcoil Engine

Spells

4 Ichor Wellspring
3 Mycosynth Wellspring
2 Sphere of the Suns
2 Kuldotha Rebirth
3 Galvanic Blast
4 Slagstorm
4 Devils Play
4 Koth of the Hammer
1 Chandra, the Firebrand
1 Karn Liberated

Lands

15 Mountain
3 Phyrexias Core
2 Buried Ruin
3 Inkmoth Nexus

Sideboard

1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Galvanic Blast
2 Manic Vandal
2 Act of Aggression
3 Blasphemous Act
4 Shrine of Burning Rage
2 Spellskite

This deck shares a lot of cards with Wolf Run, but what it gains is some hard to deal with threats in Kuldotha Phoenix and Koth, of the Hammer. Kuldoth Phoenix seems very good right now as it blocks Hero of Bladehold profitably and recurs against a control deck. Phyrexias Core provides a way to get great value out of Ichor Wellspring and Mycosynth Wellspring as well as gaining a little life in the process. You don't need to fear tapping out on turn two for a wellspring either because you can just wipe the board with Slagstorm and then Blasphemous Act once you sideboard. I might be a little worried about opposing titans and Consecrated Sphinx, they seem like an issue for this deck but with all the burn and hasty creatures, you might just be able to race your opponent. The FOUR Devils Play do a great job of burning opponents out. Big Red seems ready to shine and looks like a ton of fun to play.

Hope you have enjoyed the Fire in Standard, but be careful not to get burned by your deck choice.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force of RED!

Mike Lanigan

MtgJedi on Twitter

Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Casually Investing in Innistrad

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Happy Black Friday! While obviously Turkey Day is more exciting for most people, Black Friday is practically a(nother) national holiday for shopping soccer moms across the United States.

I’ve personally scored some great deals on Black Friday (including a gaming computer I’m buying this week with MTG profits from this year), but for me, Black Friday is all about the competition. No, it’s not winning a Pro Tour, or even FNM, but it is really satisfying to rush a store and beat out hundreds of other people to a particular item.

Anyway, there are more than just TVs on sale this year. How does this relate to Magic? Well, Innistrad is flooding the market as we knew it would, and it’s begun to drag prices down across the board, if Snapcaster Mage is removed from the board anyway. I think we’re going to have to wait out Snappy in the long-run here. It will come down, just give the market time to work its magic. There are still many months of Innistrad ahead of us, don’t get antsy and pull the trigger too soon. It’s holding steady at $21 on BlackLotusProject (Ebay), and I expect the drop-off will come after the holidays, when people are done buying themselves a Magical Christmasland gift.

But what the market will do to Tiago, it’s already done to a large number of the casual and Commander cards from Innistrad. Technically speaking, now might not be the scientifically perfect time to move on these (they’ll bottom out a few quarters more in a few months), but people are already treating these like throw-ins, so you should take them as such while you can.

Before we start, let me note that this is not a breakdown of the Worlds decks, as that is old news at this point and has been covered very well on QS already, nor is this a rundown of the next breakout Standard card. Unlike making big bets on Standard sleepers, this is guaranteed to make you money.

What we’re looking at today is a group of cards that will pad your margins in the long run, as long as you are patient. While these may not look sexy now and might not even six months down the road, remember that you need to carry both short-term and long-term stock. Trading casual/EDH cards has always been about finding the right buyer, and that’s the principle we’re working with. Find these as bulk now, trade them away in six months or a year or two at higher prices. You can also get the same value out of these in a shorter term when you find the random EDH guy who needs them.

Everyone loves to trade up for value, and a lot of that happens with the casual/EDH crowd. I’ve had more success with cards like these than the typical Standard-playable Rare that goes constantly in and out of favor. To sum this up, we’re dealing with lower-risk cards here.

Let’s begin.

Parallel Lives

It’s not like this card was secret casual tech when the set was spoiled. Everyone knew it was Doubling Season all over again, and traders were slinging it around for $5.

These days, you can find these in anyone’s binder and get them as bulk. They are still massively popular with the right crowd, and I know that they do sell at a robust pace around here. This was illustrated by a funny comment made to me last week by the local shop owner that ā€œI would be proud of him because only a shop owner would rare-draft a Parallel Lives over a playable draft card.ā€

Angelic Overseer

While not exactly just a casual card (it has some fringe Standard applications), most people don’t realize this thing actually commands more than $3 a pop on Ebay. You can get these at $2-3 in trade all day long right now, and it will certainly rise over time.

Oh, yeah, it’s also a Mythic and an Angel. There’s that. I hear it’s like catnip.

Foil Curiosity

EDH applications all over here, yet almost no one who comes across this in a draft is going to realize that it’s a dollar Uncommon that is worth a heck of a lot more than that to the right person.

Army of the Damned

There’s no shortage of people who love Zombies, regardless of whether they are Standard playable or not. Army is pulling $4 on Ebay, something that, as with most cards on this list, the typical FNM Standard-playing trader doesn’t know offhand and will give up for $2-3 in trade.

Endless Ranks of the Dead

While not quite as good as its Mythic big brother, Endless Ranks still hits that Zombie theme and is worth much more than bulk prices. It also has the coolest art in the set, so it’s got that going for it either way.

Essence of the Wild

The quintessential ā€œbig dumb Green dudeā€ of the set. Mythic and pretty popular with casual players means that it still pulls more than a dollar in cash on Ebay. Spike will pitch this without much second thought, and it’s a free dollar bill for you.

Grimgrin, Corpse-Born

Continuing the trend, Mythics retain value. Big surprise. Still, Grimgrin is worth a couple of bucks, so picking him up at $2 in trade is a fairly safe medium to long-term move.

Grimoire of the Dead

People just plain forget about this card until it beats them in Limited, but it’s worth about $3. Even those who don’t value it at bulk are still likely to trade it for $2 or less, and that’s a great deal for you.

That pretty much does it. I know it’s not a ton of cards, but the truth is I’veĀ  had all of these thrown into trades for nothing, and it’s literally handing out dollar bills. I know it’s not sexy dealing in these cards over hot risers like Garruk Relentless, but it quickly adds up to net you real money, not to mention that trading for cards like these is a lot easier than making trades for the marquee cards of the set. Even if your profit margin is the same in the end, you’ll save yourself some headache.

That said, I certainly don’t advocate trading down a Garruk for a pile of these cards just because the buylist value might be slightly higher. Treat these cards for what they are – dollar bills that you can easily pick up ā€œfor freeā€ from people. It doesn’t sound like much, but trust me, it builds up fast. Some people look down on floor traders for combing through draft leftovers or boxes, but we know this is essentially a ā€œfreeā€ source of income. In the end, it’s not always about having the ā€œpimpestā€ trade collection – it’s about making money. Don’t forget that.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Black Friday – Not just for Christmas Shopping…

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Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Hopefully you’re planning (or already have) to stuff yourself with some turkey, or for the international readers, I hope you’re having a nice Thursday. Here in the USA, the Friday after Thanksgiving is the infamous day where people are known to camp out all night, or trample each other, simply to get dibs on a cheap flatscreen TV. For the financial minded Magic player, there’s some opportunities for us too. But before I dig into those, lets look at some of the post-Worlds madness.

Olivia Voldaren- Jeez, hopefully you caught on the buzz quickly when the email blast went out, because she moved like hotcakes. I don’t see her sitting atop such a high pedestal for long, so I’d be moving them out to anyone who values them at the new inflated price.

Etched Champion also saw a boost. I’ve been watching this guy religiously for some time. He was on my tracker for a long while as well. I think he’s the real deal, but his current value of $3 doesn’t leave too much room to grow more. So few decks want that card that he’ll never really soar to enormous heights, but itis something to continue to watch. If he creeps up anymore, I’ll be dumping mine as quickly as I can.

Stoneforge Mystic- Unrelated to worlds, Price has dropped so low on this that I’m starting to get curious. As long as its not banned in Legacy it will be a staple. If it comes much lower I’m moving in.
For Holiday specials, here’s a collection of what I’ve found. If you know of other good deals, share them in the comments or in the forums.

Your LGS - Your LGS, maybe having specials. Maybe you weren’t planning on FNM so you could be with family. Find out if they are having promotions, and you can sneak over early in the day. I know my LGS is having huge discounts on singles (25% off!), and even a promotion where you get a bonus if you buy a giftcard. If you’re going to be out of town for the holidays, look into the stores in that area, and see what’s happening. If you run a local store, you should consider these promotions in future years. I know our local LGS owner dumps a lot of back stock at this huge sales day.

Your Online Retailers - Even the major online retailers are slashing prices, and jumping in could be a good move. Most don’t, but some do, and it’s worth a quick browse:. Some of the one’s I’ve heard about so far include.
Troll and Toad – They are advertising some ā€œdoorbusting dealsā€ but no prices posted. Among the list of Magic stuff they detail to be on special, includes Booster Boxes from most of the Standard Legal sets. If you’re in the market for those, I’d scope out exactly how amazing these prices are first thing Friday.
Channel Fireball – They are billing it as a promotion based on their success at Worlds, but 6% off all singles.
Amazon- They have got some price slashing on random older sealed products, especially precon decks and boosters through a variety of their vendors.

Major Market Chains - Stores like Toys R Us and WalMart have been known to carry certain Magic products, and they are the most likely to have killer deals going. Arthur Halavais (@ahalavais on twitter) directed me to the following ad for Toys R Us. While the promo on packs isn’t great, it is quite good for pre-con decks. I don’t know what availability will be like at all locations, but If you’re shopping for young ones anyway, you may want to peek at their selection and specials. Same goes for Wal-mart. While I wouldn’t personally be willing to battle my way through a Wal-Mart on Black Friday, if you’re doing some of your shopping there anyway, there’s likely some deals to be found on whatever Magic products they currently have in stock. Wal-Mart will be having their big sale on toys and games on Thursday Night, you can also check your local store’s inventory on Walmart.com.

EVEN MTGO?!?! - MTGO is having Sealed PTQs Friday, Saturday and Sunday this weekend. That’s 3x 500+ participants opening 6 boosters each (plus a top 8 draft for each). There is no doubt the market will be immediately flooded throughout the Friday event as people are trying to recoup some tickets to play again the following day. If you are working on Innistrad set redemption, it might be a good time to throw up some classifieds that you’re buying, and see what types of nibbles you get.

Craigslist? I do like to periodically scan Craigslist for deals, and I’ll be honest, I don’t normally find much, but the time investment is minimal. This time of year, however, people need the money for the holidays, and might be parting with their dusty old box. If you’re a craigslist surfer, don’t stay idle over the holidays, you can get the best deals when people are in a pinch for some holiday shopping money.

Have a great holiday!
Chad Havas

Insider: Speculation Theory 101, Information & Reaction

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Many MTG finance articles are designed to highlight opportunistic pick-ups and historical success.Ā  This is wholly understandable, of course, since readers are often able to benefit directly from this advice.Ā  An alternative writing style may also prove to be beneficial in a broader sense, a style describing the general theory of opportunity throughout the seasonal fluctuations of Magic.Ā  It is my personal belief that this tends to be more thought-provoking and enables the reader to screen future speculation targets a little more independently.

But who am I, you ask?Ā  My name is Sigmund (@sigfig8 on Twitter) and I have been playing the game of Magic for over fourteen years.Ā  What started for me as a casual hobby has since become a holistic understanding of economics.Ā  I am constantly identifying parallels between trends on Wall Street and Magic Card values, ranging from speculation price spiking to seasonal variation, and I hope to relay these insights to you through a series of weekly articles.Ā  It will be my intent to share with you some big picture food for thought when it comes to speculation.

Timing: An Example

While the number one rule in real estate is location, location, location, I would argue that the number one rule in MTG speculation is timing, timing, timing.Ā  The most recent, relevant example I can provide in the MTG community is Olivia Voldaren.Ā  Consider the chart below depicting her value, recently posted here at Quiet Speculation:

While this graph specifically highlights the recent jump in Olivia Voldaren thanks to Worlds, the shape of the curve is not uncommon.Ā  In fact, there are many such examples of this behavior in Magic history (Frost Titan’s rapid jump and equally rapid decline, Grave Titan’s reign in U/B standard, Birthing Pod’s quick tripling in value, Blazing Shoal’s tear thanks to the Modern bubble, etc.).

My intent is not to predict what break-out card will be used by Patrick Chapin at the next large tournament.Ā  In all honesty, competitive play is too time-consuming for me at the moment, and, as such, it is somewhat restrictive to constantly brew decks and try to anticipate the next big hit.Ā  What I can do, however, is learn how to identify a phenomenon quickly and react accordingly.Ā  With the virtually unlimited number of outlets from which to purchase cards, it is inevitable that you can glean trends before some of them.Ā  This leads to profit.

Where to Look

The first place to go is Twitter. What originally began as a way to inform friends of one’s whereabouts has now become my number one source of up-to-date information.Ā  Twitter is number one in my book because it instantly updates me with others’ observations.Ā  This information will not appear magically on your Twitter feed, though.Ā  Instead, following the right array of people is critical as some will tweet more actively about MTG trends than others.

For starters, following many of the writers on this site via Twitter is one way to garner recent information.Ā  Of course, the most valuable information is often posted on this very site, too.

Having followers also has payouts.Ā  Yesterday I had a demanding day at work and so I was unable to follow the latest trends at Worlds.Ā  So what did I do?Ā  I tweeted this:

Within minutes, I had these responses (despite the typo):

Need I say more?

Oh, and one of the best investments you can make to obtain Twitter followers is to do an occasional MTG giveaway.Ā  Even if the giveaway does not equate to a ton of value, you will still earn followers because people love winning in general.

Live coverage of major events is the second place to go. The benefit is twofold.Ā  First and foremost, you can verify that the Twitter comments you are reading are, in fact, accurate.Ā  More importantly, you can identify how successful the novel deck lists are performing.Ā  From there you can make your own assessment of how viable the idea will be.Ā  This may not correlate with how high the card will jump in price, as other factors such as rarity also have a large impact, but it should correlate with how long the card will remain at the higher price.

I want to add a side note here: The specific instances I am discussing in this article refer to speculation opportunities driven by metagame breakouts.Ā  This same information, however, can be reapplied to other scenarios.Ā  For example, when a card from the newest set is spoiled, Twitter is often a place to watch closely as people discuss the implications of the card.Ā  Recent examples include Torpor Orb’s impact on Hunted Horror and, more recently, Laboratory Maniac’s impact on Leveler.Ā  Another example is the banning/unbanning of a particular card.Ā  The implications here are obvious.

How to React

Everyone has a strategy for where to look to buy cards quickly before they jump in price.Ā  The concept I espouse relates responsiveness of a particular retailer to opportunity.Ā The two are inversely proportional, meaning the quicker a retailer adapts to trends, the less likely an opportunity will be present.

I propose that the two ends of the spectrum are Star City Games and local hobby stores.Ā  When I picture the operations at Star City Games, I frequently imagine a score of savvy employees constantly updating card prices.Ā  While perhaps an exaggeration, the end result remains constant: card prices on that site are almost always an accurate reflection of instantaneous supply and demand. This is accurate for cards as they rise in popularity.Ā  As cards lose favor, SCG is less inclined to drop prices as quickly.Ā This is an important observation to keep in mind.

Local card shops, both brick and mortar and online equivalents, are often slower to change prices.Ā  This especially includes sellers who do not have as much experience in MTG finance.Ā  As such, this is where the greatest opportunity for profit exists.Ā  And while you may not have access to fifty copies of a particular speculation prospect, you certainly can find small quantities of cards at great prices on a regular basis.

My favorite place to purchase is Card Shark.Ā  Many sellers on this site are relatively inexperienced with selling cards and so their prices are less reactive.Ā  Perhaps the greatest advantage is that, in most cases, these sellers will ship cards quickly to maintain a strong feedback rating.Ā  Therefore there is a lower risk of buying cards and then having your order canceled due to mysterious ā€œout of stockā€ reasons.

It is the combination of both extremes that drives the best decisions.Ā  I find myself often identifying a card with high potential, looking at how much they buy AND sell for on Star City Games, and then see if I can find a steal from smaller retailers.

Since my time is often occupied with other commitments, I find that Card Shark, eBay, and MOTL are convenient places to find these deals.Ā  You would be surprised at how often I have been able to purchase cards from these outlets at or even below SCG’s buy prices.Ā  Sometimes, no particular catalyst is needed for these opportunities to arise.Ā  It often takes patience and a lot of sifting through retailer buy prices and sales lists.

More to Come

This article focused on one facet of MTG speculation.Ā  There are, of course, many other factors that create profitable opportunities.Ā  These include format rotation, new set releases, PTQ season rotations, and more.Ā  The list here is perhaps different from the scenario described in the bulk of this article because these latter items are more cyclical.Ā  Additionally, historical trends can often be used to make reasonable predictions.Ā  In future articles, I will use these theories to make future predictions.Ā  Perhaps one of these items will be the major topic for next week.

For now, here is a teaser to consider:

Dual lands from Scars of Mirrodin saw plenty of play during last Standard season (AKA Caw-blade).Ā  Yet, even the U/W and U/B versions sold for no more than a few dollars, with non-Blue versions going as low as one to two bucks.Ā  Once Zendikar block rotated, however, we lost fetch lands AND manlands, driving the demand of Scars Duals.Ā  The prices skyrocketed.Ā  Standard will continue to evolve as the 2nd and 3rd set of Innistrad are released, but what do you think will happen if no additional mana fixing lands are introduced?Ā  Consider this information and try to draw a parallel to Innistrad Duals…

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Waking Up the Sleepers in Innistrad

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Hello! My name is Carl Szalich and I have a problem. I’m addicted to Magic: The Gathering. I’ve been playing for the past 15 years in London, Ontario, Canada with decent results, but scrub out of every PTQ and even casual FNM’s. So what makes me qualified to write for Quiet Speculation? With all of my down-time after being eliminated, I’ve had plenty of opportunity to trade!

Trading, buying, and selling are my favorite aspects of MTG. I’ve made money and I’ve lost money. I’ve come out ahead in trades and I’ve been bent over and pillaged. I’ve seen the sharks rip off little kids and I’ve ripped those sharks in turn to ā€œteach them a lessonā€. I price cards based on eBay completed listings and make most of my money on the small stuff, slowly grinding my way into the more valuable staples. My articles are primarily based on trading and speculating so I'm looking forward to contributing to QS from here on out.

I enjoy writing and would love to hear your feedback regarding my articles! Whether it’s something you agree with or feel strongly against, opinions and discussion are what will make us a stronger community and improve the quality of our articles. So if there’s something you have to say… get it out!

Fabled Sleepers

As I played in a few tournaments over the last week I realized that we weren’t quite done with Innistrad. With all of the financial websites out there, SGC's competitive pricing of their cards, a slew of speculators, and tons of articles on deckbuilding, it’s getting hard to dig up undiscovered "sleeper" rares and mythics before tech is spoiled and prices explode.

So how can we find these cards before other people to ensure that we are the ones with the upper edge?

For one, we’re lucky that Innistrad is the first set of the new block. This lets us look ahead to what we may see in the next two blocks that would compliment it. To find out what may be good in the future, we need to look at what this block is trying and accomplish.

What is Innistrad all about anyway? What are its central themes?

  • Graveyard Mechanics (Flashback / Reanimation)
  • Tribal Themes (Humans / Vampires / Werewolves… oh my!)
  • Tokens (Township / Spirits)
  • Milling Strategies (Skaab Ruinator / Laboratory Maniac)
  • Creatures Dying (Morbid)
  • Sponsored by the letter ā€œAā€ and the number 13!

Identifying what the central themes of the block are will help you prepare for what you may see in the future sets. When we know what we can expect, we can start picking up cards that would complement these themes. Based on the above we can now draw some conclusions and make some educated pick-ups!

I’m not going to bring up cards like Kessig Wolf Run or Snapcaster Mage. Those cards are too expensive to make it worthwhile to speculate on and they’ve already been ā€œdiscoveredā€. I’m going to focus on those cards that are still under the radar and attainable at bargain bin prices.

So, while this article may read like a ā€œthese are dollar rares so buy them all ASAP!ā€ advertisement, it’s the reasons why you should be looking to invest that are important.

Here’s what I’m thinking still has opportunity and is cheap, along with the reasons why I feel they are good cards to buy into. Even if they turn out to be misses, it’s the critical thinking that goes into making these decisions that is the most important skill to take away from this exercise/article. Be advised that there is going to be a lot more Innistrad opened up in the next few months, so all rares will decrease in value due to the increased supply. Make sure you trade with that in mind!

The Undiscovered


Champion of the Parish - (Theme: Tribal)
He hit a spike then went back down to $3-4. People in my area trade him at $6+, and I think he still has potential to go back up to there in real greenbacks as well. Humans are just starting to get some love, so there will be plenty more in the next set, and this guy has shown up in quite a few top decklists as part of the W/U aggro-Geist builds already (including 2nd/ 4th/ 6th places @ GP Hiroshima!). If you can get this guy on the cheap, it’s worth picking up a playset, even if just to re-trade them.


Elite Inquisitor - (Theme: Tribal)
He can be picked up for around $1, so it’s a relatively low cost investment. He’s the best white knight we’ve seen in a long time, and his pro-vampire/werewolf/zombie clause is only going to get better as more creatures of those tribes get released in the next two sets. He’s also a human, so depending on what’s released for his tribe he could see play (in sideboards, at least)!


Geist Honored Monk - (Theme: Tokens)
At $1 or less this guy is a bargain. It’s already being played in competitive token builds (2x were in the 1st place deck for GP Hiroshima!) and provides card advantage. It’s no ā€œSiege Gang Commanderā€, but it’s moderately comparable, and being in the same ā€œclassā€ as SGC is a feat in itself.


Mikaeus, the Lunarch - (Theme: Tribal / Tokens)
Presently worth $4-5 I don’t think he has much more room to grow, however, he’s showing up in T8 lists for token decks and I can see him helping out a human deck as well. Even though he’s already $5ish, his mythic factor and the fact that he’s seeing play already makes him a buy. Note that since he was printed in FTV: Legends that there are more of him out there than the other mythics which you can use to your trading advantage!
(EDIT: The entire ChannelFireball team played him as a 1-of in their Tempered Steel decks and they took FOUR of the top 8 places with it at Worlds this past week! If he's making the cut into Tempered Steel, the question isn't when we'll see him next... it's where!)


Mindshrieker - (Theme: Graveyard?)
I’m not really sure how to classify this guy, but with Ponder and Delver of Secrets in the format he has potential. Ponder sets up both a Delver flip as well as putting cards in the ā€œright orderā€ to do some huge damage with the Mindshrieker. He’s around $1 which is a good place to be for speculating.


Mirror-Mad Phantasm - (Theme: Graveyard)
So far I haven’t had any good brews with this guy, but he has a unique ability and is a mythic rare at around $1.50. If mill decks actually become competitive in the next sets, he may have a shot at the big time. There is already a ā€œcomboā€ with him and Necrotic Ooze that decks yourself for 1U, so there is hope!


Rooftop Storm / Undead Alchemist / Unbreathing Horde - (Theme: Tribal)
Wizards is really pushing the Zombie tribe in this set. We already got a 1cc 2/2 Zombie, and the next set is bound to contain more of this tribe. Unbreathing horde is comparable to Phantom Centaur in a lot of ways, and the Undead Alchemist will be staple in ā€œZombie Millā€ if that ever exists. Rooftop Storm seems REALLY expensive for its CC, but could get broken depending on what new Zombies get released. All of these are under $1 right now. If you’re feeling good about the Zombos… there won’t be a better time to pick them up!


Skaab Ruinator - (Theme: Graveyard)
How the mighty have fallen. I’m glad I was on the team of: ā€œDon’t buy into this guy, he’s not worth the hypeā€ as he went from $20+ to where he now sits at < $5. NOW is the time to purchase the Ruinator. He’s super cheap and all of his potential is still there… it just hasn’t had the cards released to really make him ā€œbig timeā€ yet. A ā€œBuried Aliveā€ style card in the next set could send him shooting back up to his old prices.
Bloodgift Demon - (Theme: N/A… he’s just good!) This guy is midrange, and if a Jund Style deck becomes popular, he’ll probably be in it. At $1-2 there is really no reason why not to get a few, I know mine just fly out of my binders at the trade table right now, so even if he doesn’t really go up, he’s still in demand.
Reaper from the Abyss - (Theme: Creatures Dying) Right now people seem to be choosing the Titans over this guy because of the CA automatically generated by casting a Titan. I feel this guy is poised to take over the titans spot in the future. He trumps every titan in that he is able to kill them with his P/T, fly over them, or just come down after morbid has been triggered and outright destroy them (which generates CA with the Reaper). It’s just a matter of time before someone starts swinging into a ā€œbad tradeā€, then dropping this guy in their second main phase and shattering dreams. He’s $2, mythic, and uses morbid. More morbid enablers in the next set will REALLY help him out, especially if there is a card that just says: ā€œSacrifice THIS to do THATā€ (the Rusalka creature cycle comes to mind).
Instigator Gang / Kruin Outlaw - (Theme: Tribal) Have you ever PLAYED the werewolf deck? It’s a LOT of fun! Other people think so as well, so this tribe is poised to EXPLODE if they get anything new to support them. Instigator Gang is the NUTS so I would go after as many of them as I can find, but his little buddy Outlaw isn’t far behind. They are currently around $1 each, and they've been some of my most popular trading bait lately! (Personally I’m trying to FOIL my werewolf deck! :P)
Daybreak Ranger / Mayor of Avabruck - (Theme: Tribal) Unlike the previous two werewolves, both of these lycanthropes are good on their own. Mayor sees play in U based ā€œdraw-goā€ as well as humans and werewolves, and Ranger is solid in Werewolves and any build that’s G/R. They are both around $2-3 right now, so while they’re not the cheapest, they’re still good buys. I would focus on the Mayor, as he crosses into the most themes (even splashing into draw-go control), only needs 1 color, and therefore has the most potential.
Kessig Cagebreakers / Splinterfright - (Theme: Graveyard / Milling) These are the guys that got me writing this article since I played a deck that focused on self-mill and making huge Boneyard Wurms and Splinterfrights. This is a graveyard / mill themed block, so we can expect these cards to continue to get better. At $1 or less each right now, I’m into them pretty heavy… if pretty heavy = around $20 for a couple playsets.
Parallel Lives - (Theme: Tokens) Similar to Doubling Season, if this enchantment doesn’t get any attention from cards like Geist Honored Monk and Hero of Bladehold (however unlikely), it’s bound to increase as casual players clamor to add them to their Commander decks. For $1.50 or less if it’s not going to see play in standard, it WILL see play in casual and should slowly increase in price as the supply dies down and other sets are released.
Olivia Voldaren - (Theme: Tribal) Another $4 mythic with great potential. If there is a competitive vampire deck in B/R (which it looks like there WILL be), Olivia will be there with her pallid flesh and hungry fangs to nibble on your opponents life total. I think she’s constructed worthy for non-tribal decks as well, as her P/T and abilities are awesome for a 4 drop! It’s a questionable call, but she’s a really good commander as well, so has application outside of standard. (EDIT: Looks like Chapin thought the same, and this card is now $10+! Did you miss it? :S)


Grimoire of the Dead - (Theme: Graveyard)
Apparently $2 mythics are a theme in Innistrad? While I don’t think this card is all that great, it’s withstood the initial market influx of cards and has retained its $2 price tag which means something at least. The reason why it’s making the cut to a possible sleeper is because of the fact that you reanimate as an INSTANT. Don’t go hard, but picking up a few for the ā€œjust in caseā€ factor isn’t a bad idea!

Until Next Time!

Not a terrible list for a set that was said to have been picked clean of sleepers, eh? While not everything listed here will end up being a hit, I still believe these are the cards with a lot of potential to increase from the low price point upon which they currently reside. Take it with a grain of salt, however, as many of these cards will rely on the next 2 sets and what they have the possibility of bringing along to compliment them. I guess that’s why they call it speculating.

This is my first article for Quiet Speculation so I'd love to hear your feedback in the comments section.

Until next time, remember: ā€œYou’re bigger than you think!ā€

Carl Szalich

QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #8 [MTGO]

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Join Forrest Ryan, Kyle Stoll, Patrick McGregor and friends as they narrate a group-drafted MODO tournament.

Other drafts:
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #1
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #2
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #3
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #4
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #5
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #6
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #7
QS Drafts: Drafting Innistrad #8

Desperate Ravings and the not-so-random

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I love a card like Desperate Ravings because its value isn't immediately apparent. It's sort of like Balance in that you need to play it a little bit to see just how good it can be. Here's the fundamental bit about the random discard: it's not as random as it seems. It was inspiring to listen to Patrick Chapin talk about the card in the Worlds Deck Tech video this past weekend. He said basically that you cast it if you need lands, you cast it if you need spells, and if you don't need lands or spells, you don't even need to cast it!

When you decide to cast Ravings, you're looking at the rest of your hand. You know whether you'd be fine trading any one of those cards for two more. You've made the choice, even if it's "I could lose three of these four." Your chances of losing that card are one in six by the time you've cast the spell - incredible! I think more people will adopt Desperate Ravings when they play with it more; the in-game feeling of looking at your hand and deciding that you can go +2 cards on what you're looking at is informative in the way that mathematical explanations often fall short.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Posted in QS BlogsTagged , 26 Comments on Desperate Ravings and the not-so-random

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Insider: Looking at Lorwyn, Part 2

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Welcome back! If you missed us last week, we were looking at the first part of Lorwyn. Take a look at the article as a refresher and then jump right in with me!

$2.00

What's funny about Merfolk in Legacy is that it used to be a budget deck! The thinking at the time was, you bought your Forces (then $20), your Wastelands (then $14), and then a bunch of bad, old cards like Lord of Atlantis. Borrow Mutavaults from a friend and you've got a deck! How things have changed. Standstill is in the double digits now! The lords that fill out the rest of the deck are pricey, and that includes this uncommon. Reejerey isn't just a pretty face - the tapping ability can lead to unexpected blowouts against opponents who don't figure it in. It can also untap men who have just attacked, acting like a sort of vigilance. It's the lord-density that made Merfolk so good - get any two guys out and you'll probably be attacking for big chunks of damage.

$2.75

If you name a tribe and it's not Zombies, Elves or Goblins, then Mirror Entity is probably its best member. Changelings are problematic for me in Tribal decks, since they don't really feel like much flavor at all. There's nothing particularly thematic about Mirror Entity. Most of the time when I use it, it's when Lin-Sivvi is Rebel-chaining into it. Spam the board with three or four Rebels and get Entity, and then your guys are 7/7s and you're killing other EDH players. Unfortunately, the existence of this card means that a bunch of interesting Tribal stuff has to compete with it. If you're using Wirewood Herald or even stooping to Cateran Summons, would you get anything other than this monster? I'm not pleased with its existence, but I'll admit that I've won a lot of games with it.

$2.00

The reign of Faeries in Standard was a true terror. Once the Faeries player had four mana open, you knew what was coming to you. Either you'd have your spell countered with Cryptic Command (hope you didn't need that attack step!) or you'd get Cliqued in your upkeep. This card requires you to feed it a faerie, but with Bitterblossom around, you could send away a little flying rogue or even get rid of the tribal enchantment. Clique was a monster of a Time Walk; you shut your opponent out of Spectral Procession or Cloudgoat Ranger mana, then you have a giant flier to seal the game up. How much more interaction is necessary, here?

I don't know why Clique is worth more than a dollar right now. People bought copies in hopes for a Modern Faeries deck, but with Punishing Fire around, that's not happening. We've given the fliers a chance and they are not coming back.

$2.50

Primal Command took off as the new tech to deal with Cloudpost decks in Modern, replacing Plow Under. However, this was all theoretical - nobody was actually playing them, just talking about it - and then Cloudpost went away. Command has a bit of casual appeal. I like the card a lot because it does what I think a 3GG spell should do. I think it has a little bit of use in Modern, since it can go grab Eternal Witness and come back for more action. I'm not sure if there's a R/G Ramp deck (although I think it'd be a contender), but Primal Command would probably be part of it.

$1.25

The Command cycle was really well done in Lorwyn, the only flunkie being Incendiary Command. Profane Command ties into scalability, which we've seen in Black from the earliest days of Magic. From Pestilence and Drain Life to Howl from Beyond, Black has a theme of making the mana fit the crime. Profane Command does some really "black" things, and just about my favorite play with it involves reanimating Eternal Witness and doing the whole thing again.

$1.75

I've gotten a lot of Commander use out of the Rings, and not just from Basalt Monolith combinations. Rings are obviously great in Arcum decks, but they have so much incidental use, too! Double your fetchlands, your Voltaic Key untaps, your Urza's Blueprints or your Imperious Perfects. It's one of those cards that, the more you play with it, the more you find that most of the cards in your deck have really cool duplication abilities. I especially love it with Thawing Glaciers.

$2.75

If you're going to play Faeries, you might as well pack their lord. Scion on turn 3 meant that Bitterblossom was about to get that much more serious. Any time later in the game, Scion was a 2U counterspell against removal. Two Scions meant that your guys were only going to stop if they hit a Wrath of God. I'm surprised that Scion is still worth so much; Faeries are a casual deck, but they're not exactly a popular one.

$1.25

Nonbasic mana producers tend to go for about a buck,Ā  but there are so many better options than this card, even in Faeries decks!

$1.25

Another formerly-cheap uncommon for the Merfolk deck. Silvergill is an unimpressive workhorse. That 2/1 becomes monstrous with two Lords in play.

$6.75

Did you know that Sower was worth this much? It only sees play in Legacy sideboards, and so I was surprised to see that it was still so expensive. Sower is a poor choice in Modern because it eats it to the ubiquitous removal and cannot stand up to the Punishing Fire engine. Sower is, though, a fine card in Commander, and I think its vulnerability has something to do with it. "Sure," you might say, "I took your guy, but all you have to do is kill this 2/2 and it's yours again. This isn't something permanent!" The opponent will do their best to kill your pest, but they aren't going to go after you the way they would if you put out a Control Magic.

$22.50

From the moment this was printed, people had real issues with it being a rare. No, it wasn't going to be a grumble about how this boring card was in the rare slot - it was how they could print a card with such utility, which harkened back to loads of previous B discard spells, and make it rare. What if

or Ostracize or Inquisition of Kozilek were rare? Part of the grumble was that this looked to players like a transparent effort to sell more packs. If you put all the cards you need at rare, then people are going to have to crack more boosters! Regardless of whether that was the case or not, WOTC did a very poor job of communicating alternate reasons for Thoughtseize being a rare.

In all its history, I can't think of someone who has been pleased to pay retail price for these. When you buy a Jace or a Batterskull, it somehow feels... worth it. You can look at the card and see the power. Cards like Thoughtseize, though, feel like taxes or braces on your teeth - painful and necessary. They are sort of the computer loading screen in Magic, because all they do is facilitate cool stuff later. A card like Thoughtseize or Windswept Heath isn't cool at all, it just lets you eventually do what you wanted to. It's dangerous to have too many of these kinds of cards in Magic - I'd rather the big-dollar items be truly worth it.

On the upside, Thoughtseize isn't a goofy Tribal card or a legend, so there's a chance it'll be reprinted. Next time, can we hope for an uncommon?

$1.50

A lot of people who really should be using this card don't know of its' existence. Merieke Ri Berit Commander decks go nuts for this kind of double effect, and it is obviously strong with Elves. This is the kind of card that's solid utility, even if it'll never see tournament play. The pseudo-haste is great design.

$2.50

Rescue these from your junk bin! The Treefolk Lord makes a big impact when he hits the field. Your Yavimaya Ancients aren't going anywhere, now!

$4.75

Vigor is a Commander staple, since it's just about the best "don't attack me, bro" card there is. Slap this down and people will actively avoid you. I'm trying to think of cards that you could use this with that don't totally suck, and all I'm coming up with is things like Psionic Entity. I suppose you could have two of these in play, plus Triskelion, for infinite damage. Even if you're just fairly using it, Vigor is a pretty cool guy.

$1.50

This card shines with Spectral Procession, and it made big splashes in Standard in Kithkin decks. Suddenly, you could pull three attackers out of thin air! It's a card I'd love to pair with Timely Reinforcements, for example. Heights, during its time, could flip a Cloudgoat Ranger or practically anything else in the Kithkin deck and score value. I don't see it getting played any more, but it has a certain casual appeal.

2011 Worlds Coverage – Live And Updating!

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Hi folks! Don't want to prune through Twitter updates all day in lieu of watching college football? Here's the one page you need. We will be continuously updating this page with stories of savage beats, wild unsubstantiated rumors, worthwhile recaps and more.

3:16 PST

@Magic Pro Tour
(Tim) Cuneo vs Asahara on table 12. Gifts Ungiven on the stack for Asahara. Punishing Fire, Snapcaster, Witness, All Suns Dawn. Yikes!

This deck sounds really fun to play. I've been tinkering around with big ol' tap out decks in Modern. I wouldn't be surprised if that Gifts deck has either Sakura-Tribe Elder or Coalition Relic in it. You've got to be careful in that kind of deck that (1) it's not just completely recursion and (2) that every Gifts you cast can be gamebreaking. Can we get Damnation/Shriekmaw/Liliana/Slay? What about Cruel Ultimatum/ASD/Snappy/Witness? Woof.

Conley Woods is playing Snapcaster Zoo in Modern, as I mentioned before. You can read about his performance in a feature match here (pops). He's running Geist of Saint Traft maindeck, which is pretty cool. The big issue I found with Counter-Cat is that you'd land one or two threats and they had to stick. If someone removed your first two dudes, then you're stuck drawing things like Path and Bolt and you lose a lot of the pressure that you could put in. Geist makes for 1.25 threats or so; it makes it much more profitable to aim your burn and removal at creatures, and it's a Hexproof Goyf if the opponent can't muster a blocker. You can see how Kessig Wolf Run also helps, since it makes any creature that stays in play into a much more important threat. It's exceptionally greedy to run Wolf Run in a four-color deck, by the way.

Woods was smart to bring in his Finks in G2 in that match, too. Obviously, they survive Damnation and Death Cloud, but they're also good against the x/3 guys that the Death Cloud deck fills up on. A deck like that can often just 1-for-1 you until it makes some big card-advantage play like the Cloud. It's straight-up painful to have to Doom Blade a Finks.

I suggest Zoo players read the R2 coverage very closely. Look how Woods holds his Helices, even when the opponent is coming in with Treetop Village and Shriekmaw. Did he have that Snapcaster in hand? Was he waiting on it or another Helix? I don't know, but he was very focused on his mission. It's almost as if he threw away his opportunities to attack with Finks for value, since he swung into an open Village. Had he kept Helices in hand, he could have burned it out and rode his creatures to victory, which is a traditional Zoo strategy. Instead, he showed a lot of focus on his burn turning into reach. I'm not sure I agree completely, but I'm basing that on not knowing what was in his hand. My guess is that he drew the Snapcaster later, since we might have seen the Snap/Bolt play much earlier otherwise.

There is a lot packed into that one round.

2:34 PST

Coverage is so frustratingly bad that I just emailed Kelly about sending reporters to Lincoln to independently cover the Modern GP there next February.

Conley has conceded his second match, knowing he's locked for the T8. Conley's deck in Standard features Tempered Steel and Etched Champion.

I wish I had more to report : \

1:16 PST

The last two days were huge for competitive Magic and speculators alike. The biggest news was Olivia Voldaren, who broke out in Patrick Chapin's 5-1 deck from the Standard portion. You can check out the undefeated decklists (pops) and get a good sense of what will be strong in the post-Worlds metagame. People everywhere will be trying Patrick's deck. Even if you missed out on Olivia, the manabase for the deck is sure to get more valuable as well. I suggest snagging foils of Desperate Ravings, a card Chapin identifies as a Standard staple.

People are desperate for Modern updates, as well. If we had great ones, I'd be passing them out to Insiders through our exclusive email tip system (and if you want to get in on it, all you have to do is subscribe and you'll automatically get 'em). Team CFB is running Snapcaster Zoo, from what I've heard. A 1uR Bolt plus dude is fine in Modern, and adds both threat density and reach to a Zoo deck. Counter-Cat and similar blue-splashing decks tend to run cards like Bant Charm and Flashfreeze (best card in Modern btw) and have a hard time finishing the game against grinding control decks. Perhaps Tiago will give the deck a little more reach.

I have also heard that Kessig Wolf Run has made appearances in the Modern portion. We'll keep you updated.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

Posted in Finance, Free, Strategy2 Comments on 2011 Worlds Coverage – Live And Updating!

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The New Prediction Tracker!

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Hey guys,

I've been hacking away on the new Prediction Tracker for the last couple days, and I'm excited to share some of the neat new features that I've implemented so far. Ā The back-end is coming along nicely, and the front end is...well, it's pretty ugly right now. Ā But it works!

Automatic Call Pricing

When one of our contributors submits a Call, the Tracker will automatically pull the most current price from the data source of our choice. Ā Right now, we're going with TCG Player's 'Mid' price since it's the most balanced estimate of the market.

Each time you look at the tracker, the card's most current price from that same data source will be displayed, alongside the current difference between the called price and the current price. Ā This means that we're 100% accountable to our calls. Ā We can't go back and change them, fudge numbers, or use unrealistic buy-in prices.

Filtering

You'll be able to filter the Tracker by card name, contributor name, and other data points. Ā This is especially helpful for seeing what your favorite author is saying or for checking out what the QS team as a whole thinks of one specific card! Ā We'll constantly be adding more filters as we develop them!

Email Alerting

Want to know when a new call goes up? Ā As soon as one of our contributors hits "submit", you'll get an email if you opt in! Ā We think this will be one of the most popular features and a phenomenal reason to sign up for Insider unto itself!

A Screen Shot

Using fake calls. Ā Actually, Ā I put that Olivia call in on Thursday morning, right before I sent out an email blast, so it's not all fake!

The (currently butt-ugly) Tracker 2.0!

All of this is subject to change, but the majority of these features are already in place. Ā We're really looking forward to developing this further and adding more of the vital features as time goes on. Ā We're excited that this is finally getting close to a release version and I hope you'll forgive theĀ deprecationĀ of our current Tracker Ā while this is under development!

--Kelly

Kelly Reid

Founder & Product Manager

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Posted in Finance, Free, QS Blogs11 Comments on The New Prediction Tracker!

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Updating Standard: Who has the best removal?

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When was the last time you can remember when Shock, just regular old Shock and not upgrades like Burst Lightning, not only being playable in Standard but actually good? I could be mistaken because I took some breaks in competitive play at various times, but I think the last time Shock was this good was when it was printed in Onslaught. It was played all throughout Mirrodin until it left Standard with Kamigawa. Shock is just one of those solid cards that has seen many variations on the same idea but usually even those are not good enough. Think about if Forked Bolt were in Standard right now though how much play it would be seeing. Never thought I would wish for Forked Bolt, but it would be so good right now! I think that Shock being good is great for Magic and I wish for many more Standard Formats where it is this good again.

What makes Shock so good? The first thing is the cost. The fact that it is one mana, is extremely important. I have said before that I love Shock the most in conjunction with Snapcaster Mage and those two combine to beat many decks in Standard right now. One reason why the Blue Red Fish deck is so good is because of this combination of cards.

Cheap removal is so important right now due to all of the cheap, low powered threats. Wring Flesh? Vapor Snag? Gut Shot? Heck, I saw a couple people sideboarding Marrow Shards, not in a top 8 deck list or anything but still. The point is that cheap removal is really good right now because the first three turns of the game are so important. If you are not doing something during those turns to set the pace of the game or control it, you are going to lose a lot of games.

One card that is not getting nearly enough attention is Mortarpod.

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I thought after Martin Juza included Mortarpod in his winning Grand Prix deck list that it would have been ported to many other decks as well. In my opinion it probably still should. The cost of two mana is much more than one mana but being able to reuse it is amazing value. My version of Green White Tokens even plays three Mortarpods maindeck.

Removal is one of those core concepts that you must examine in every format. It is a topic to consider when you are trying to build new decks or tweak existing ones. So, what are you likely to face down right now in Standard? The answer is not much actually. Most decks have a couple pieces of removal like some Oblivion Rings, or Mana Leaks, and now possibly Gut Shots to fight the Metagame. Mono Red has a lot but they don’t want to use it on your creatures as much as they do your life total. Really the only place you have to worry about a lot of removal from is Blue Black Control. Let’s take a look at the winning deck list from SCG Vegas. I know the data is a little old now but it is the most current list we have to work from and most likely the one players will be testing against and tweaking from.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Grave Titan
3 Snapcaster Mage

Spells

2 Dissipate
3 Doom Blade
4 Forbidden Alchemy
4 Mana Leak
1 Negate
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Think Twice
1 Tribute to Hunger
2 Visions of Beyond
1 Wring Flesh
2 Black Sun's Zenith
2 Liliana of the Veil
1 Karn Liberated

Lands

8 Island
6 Swamp
4 Darkslick Shores
4 Drowned Catacomb
2 Ghost Quarter
2 Nephalia Drownyard

Sideboard

2 Batterskull
2 Curse of Death's Hold
1 Volition Reins
1 Disperse
1 Flashfreeze
2 Negate
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Jace, Memory Adept
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Black Sun's Zenith

The core of this decks removal is Doom Blade and Mana Leak. Against the aggro decks you hope to draw the two Black Sun's Zeniths but you cannot really play more because of how horrible it is against the ramp decks. Mana Leak is always good unless the aggro player gets their threat down before you have the opportunity to counter it, which is exactly what the aggro decks are designed to do. Does Blue Black Control have the tools to beat any deck in the format? Yes, definitely yes. My problem with the deck is that you have to hope to draw the right removal against the right deck. The threats are so diverse in Standard right now that you could have three removal spells in your hand but none of them would work against the particular threat. Planeswalkers provide an especially difficult to deal with angle of attack because once they are in play, you are in a lot of trouble.

The reason to play control decks is so you can out play your opponent and deal with all of their threats. I do not think control decks in Standard are well equipped to do this right now. If this was your goal, I think a blue white deck might be better because you gain Day of Judgment, Oblivion Ring, and Gideon Jura, who should be seeing a lot more play than he is currently. Why is the switch to Blue White Control not automatic then? Mana Cost. Blue White Control does not have access to the early removal that it needs in order to keep up with the tempo your opponent creates in the first three turns of the game. So, blue white can’t deal with early threats and blue black has a hard time matching the right removal to the right deck, how are we going to control the game then? Maybe we need to start looking at some other removal spells. The best removal spell in Standard has not even been mentioned yet.

What is the best removal spell in Standard?

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I have talked a lot about this card over the last couple months but I don't think I have really stressed just how good it really is. It is so good it feels like cheating when you cast it. Will there be times when you don't have metalcraft? Yes. Those times are not often though because the deck is set up to be able to play this card. Dispatch is a serious reason to include a ton of artifacts in your deck. Tempered Steel and Puresteel Paladin decks are designed to take advantage of this card. I cannot even explain the joyful feeling I had the first time I removed someones creature with a Dispatch. Honestly I thought to myself, "Does that work? Wow, that is so unfair." I would probably never consider playing less than four. Sure you might sideboard some of them out depending on the match, but being able to remove Chandra's Phoenix, Mirran Crusader, Hero of Bladehold, and Wurmcoil Engine as well as any threat your control opponent wants to play makes this card extremely versatile.

Since we are playing white for Dispatch, we might as well be playing Oblivion Ring as well. It deals with planeswalkers as well as any problematic creatures. It can be destroyed by a variety of cards other players are using so it is not quite as good as it used to be. What deck plays both Dispatch and Oblivion Ring? That's right, Voltron!

I know, I know. I have written a lot about Voltron, a.k.a. Puresteel Paladin.dec.


Is the Big, Bad Wolf Red or Green?

Welcome to Snapcaster Standard

Building a Force in Standard

Voltron + Innistrad = Tier 1

Even the articles that are not solely about Voltron cover the various incarnations of the deck and insights I have learned from playing it so much. I truely love the deck and still think it is a blast to play as well as being very good. I remember when LSV, in one of his Running the Gauntlet videos on Channelfireball, talked about this deck. His quote was memorable because of how potent it was and how much of an impact it has had on me. Basically what he said was that Puresteel Paladin decks are like Caw-Blade with more busted draws but have a bit more variance to go along with that. Puresteel Paladin decks are like Caw-Blade. Let that sink in for a minute.

The previous versions pale in comparison to the leap I made recently with the deck. The change is so dramatic it is like comparing the original Tron to Tron: Legacy. The new version is so much better than the original in virtually every way. What leap did I make?

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I just lept over the Empire State of deckbuilding! The Mortarpod, Garruk Relentelss combo was my favorite part of the new Green White Tokens deck and including it in this deck is so perfect. Not only does it create death touching tokens to fling at your opponents creatures, but the initial side creating a steady stream of 2/2's is amazing also. Garruk Relentless is so versatile he is like combining Ajani Vengeant and Elspeth Knight Errant into one card. Think about how good he is against the new hot Blue White Illusion deck also because he doesn't lose counters to kill all of their illusion creatures. I have been so impressed with Garruk Relentless in every deck I have played him in. I would not be surprised at all to see him take over as the most expensive card in the set as Standard progresses. Requiring only one green mana makes him playable in a variety of decks due to the easy casting cost.

Take a look at the best deck I've been playing in Standard.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Vault Skirge
4 Puresteel Paladin
3 Etched Champion
2 Mentor of the Meek

Equipment

4 Flayer Husk
4 Mortarpod
3 Sword of War and Peace
3 Sword of Feast and Famine

Spells

4 Dispatch
3 Oblivion Ring
3 Garruk Relentless
1 Mox Opal

Lands

4 Razorverge Thicket
4 Sunpetal Grove
10 Plains
2 Gavony Township
2 Inkmoth Nexus

Sideboard

1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Sword of War and Peace
1 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Sylvok Lifestaff
1 Batterskull
1 Oblivion Ring
1 Revoke Existence
3 Celestial Purge
3 Mirran Crusader
2 Gideon Jura

There are tons of synergies going on in this deck that might not even be apparent at first glance. I mentioned a few above but don't forget about Mentor of the Meek and Garruk Relentless. I still feel that two is the right number of mentors because often they are not good in the early game. Drawing a card for one mana when you make a token is pretty broken and with how cheap all your other creatures are, you can often add a mana to their cost rather easily.

Many players are adjusting to Mirran Crusader in the format but Etched Champion has protection from all colors. That makes him pretty hard to deal with. When there were more Solemn Simulicrum, he was not as good but that was really the only concern.

One question I have right now is the distribution of one cost creatures. I know I want some combination of Flayer Husk, Vault Skirge, and Doomed Travelers. With all the Gut Shots running around, Doomed Traveler might just be better than Vault Skirge but I really like the initial evasion provided by Vault Skirge as well as the fact he is an artifact to set up metalcraft. All three are good, it just depends on what your expected metagame is. I have considered going back to 3/3/3 and cutting the third Etched Champion for mana curve considerations.

Another question is about the lands. Gavony Township is not as good as Moorland Haunt in this deck but this wasn't the best Moorland Haunt deck to start with so it is not that big of a loss. I'm not sure that the Gavony Township even belongs in the deck at all but I have won a couple games because it was there so I am hesitant to remove it. Four Inkmoth Nexus is appealing though.

The sideboard is still tenative. I like all of those cards but I am not sure they are entirely necessary. Bringing in Gideon Jura on the draw against an aggressive deck seems sweet but that is just a theory right now. I need to play with this green version a little more before I settle on a sideboard. Spellskite is a possibility but the zero power always bothers me. I considered Grand Abolisher also but not that many cards need to come out against control so that is still a maybe.

Even with some questions up in the air, one thing I am certain of is this decks ability to win games. You are not afraid of any cards your opponent can play because you have answers to all of them. Your threats are potent and can take over games so you are not just waiting on your opponent to respond to them. If I were qualified for worlds, there is no doubt in my mind that I would be playing this deck.

Until next time,

Unleash Voltron the Relentless!

Mike Lanigan

MtgJedi on Twitter

Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider – Revisiting Modern

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It’s time to take a look in on Modern. It’s a format that has so far mirrored old Extended – cared about when it’s relevant, forgotten when it’s not. While that is probably not a great sign for the format overall (though it has plenty of time to grow), it’s good for us as speculators.

And right now we’re sitting at the last moment before a new spike in Modern comes along. With Worlds going on right now, there will be some good Modern decklists coming out of it. Because Standard hasn’t been played at a high level in a few weeks, it’s possible there will be more attention directed toward it than Modern, but I think it’s more likely that the good Modern decks will push soon-to-be Modern staples up, and they won’t be coming down again until Modern PTQ season is over.

That means it’s time to move on these staples now. I’ve been telling you about the more-obvious things such as lands and Zoo cards, so today I want to look at some of the more off-the-radar things that you should look to pick up on the cheap at FNM tonight.

We have some lists from PT Philly that figure to still be good after the last round of bannings, so we should be able to pull a few gems from them as well, even though they were designed for a different metagame. There’s also Magic League, which has shown some important innovations in the past for those watching.

Let’s dig in.

The easy ones

The cards on this list you need to be on the lookout for immediately. They are proven winners that stand to gain a fair amount of value between now and the end of Modern PTQ season.

Cryptic Command

I think one of the major developments of the Modern world is that Blue is Back, and this weekend will show it. Apart of that has to do with our friend Snapcaster Mage, but if Blue is good, so is Cryptic. These aren’t actually that easy to find in binders anymore, so snag any you can, because it could easily spike hard after this weekend.

Elspeth, Knight Errant

Losing Green Suns Zenith hurts the Zoo decks, but Zoo was good before Zenith came out, and will continue to be, particularly versions that load up on >2 toughness creatures, since Grove of the Burnwillows will certainly be metagame-defining. In these Zoo decks, including ones like the Big Zoo deck Brian Kibler used to win Pro Tour: Austin a while back, Elspeth fills a key role. She’s a Planeswalker that’s getting further and further out of print, so this seems like an easy bet to gain some value.

Bloodbraid Elf

Whether it’s cascading into Boom/Bust or just a ā€˜Goyf, there’s no reason to not think this will come up some, especially if a Jund deck is viable in addition to more traditional Zoo.

Other Zoo cards

Noble Hierarch, Knight of the Reliquary, Tarmogoyf, Path to Exile. You get the idea.

Also keep an eye on finding some Gaddock Teeg. With Zenith gone and combo down but not out, expect Zoo decks to run Teeg as more than a 1-of, and he could see some rises accordingly.

Maelstrom Pulse

With the format slowing down, I see Pulse becoming a larger part of it. It fits into Jund, BG Rock decks, Living End, and probably a few others as well.

Sleepers

The cards in this list aren’t a sure thing, but they also offer some of the best upside in the format.

Boom/Bust

I’m not sure if this will make it big, but it certainly has a place in Zoo decks, particularly in a Grove-dominated world.

Firespout

Already a valuable Uncommon, if 3 toughness becomes the new standard, then this could see a rise accordingly.

Fiery Justice

I’m pretty sure this is actually just the go-to card in the Zoo mirror, though I could be mistaken. At very close to bulk prices right now, this could be the big winner of this list.

Cloudstone Curio

It wasn’t that long ago that Elves was a very real deck, and they did it without Zenith. Curio is a big part of the deck’s going infinite, and in Old Extended this deck could kill on Turn 3. Another bargain at bulk prices that could explode once Matt Nass picks up Elves. The biggest danger to the deck is, of course, Punishing Fire/Grove.

That said, I’m fairly certain that most everyone will be aware of Grove and therefore might stay away from cards that lose to it, leading to a cycle where Elves could find its time to shine. And with so much redundancy and the ability to kill quickly, it’s not like one Punishing Fire isn’t something the deck can fight through.

If so, also be ready to move on things like Summoners Pact and Heritage Druid.

Death Cloud

I really want this to be good. Thoughtseize is an easy bet to add to its already-expensive price tag, and it fits right at home in this deck. Garruk Wildspeaker and Kitchen Finks are also boss in this deck.

Glen Elendra Archmage

This card pops up a number of times in decks that survive the bannings, such as Birthing Pod and Faeries. It also will serve a noble purpose in the Snapcaster deck mirrors, particularly if a Blue deck turns out to be one of the breakout decks of the weekend.

Chalice of the Void

Useful for stopping Cascade decks, of which there might be a few, and is at its best in a Prison deck like this one. RW Prison is a pet favorite of mine that I loved in Old Extended and tried hard to make work in Modern before the bannings. It seems decently positioned now, though I doubt it’s going to be one of the top decks.

But seriously, give this deck a look. Who doesn’t love Magus of the Tabernacle, Trinisphere and Ghostly Prison?

Doran the Siege Tower

It’s sad to me that Doran doesn’t seem to be making a showing anywhere, but the big guy could still make a return. Not only was he the star of the Extended Pro Tour last year, but it’s possible there’s also merit in and old version that splashed Blue for Rhox War Monk. It all depends on where the meta ends up, and if Zoo runs away with it or Control and Combo make a return.

Flagstones of Trokair

RW Landfall was the toast of Old Extended for a time, and the slowing down of the format means that lengthening games by another turn or two could put this deck, and Flagstones, back into the spotlight. It’s also one of the best targets to Boom/Bust on yourself.

Braid of Fire

Hearing rumors about this making waves in Modern testing. Be ready to pounce if it starts to show up.

That’s all I’ve got at this point in Modern. We can see, from the best information available to us, what the best decks appear to be coming out of the gates, and we’ll find out more this weekend. The staples on this list you need to get into as fast as possible before interest in Modern sparks back up. The speculative cards you should look for as your chance to really score big.

You guys see anything I missed? Let me know in the comments!

Thanks forĀ  reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88

Olivia Voldaren Price Graph

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Neat chart from the last 48 hours! I'm looking forward to charting more jumps like this one as Worlds progresses!

Updated around 2:30 EST 11/18/11

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