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MH2 Overview, Pt. 3: Horizons Top 5, Places #5-3

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Modern Top 5 is a long-running article series in which I use a set of pre-defined metrics to rank the best of breed in different categories. Past contests have included utility cards, hosers, enablers, beaters, and planeswalkers... come to think of it, though, most of those contests are due for an update! Today's brand-new entry pulls double-duty as a way to close out our comprehensive Modern Horizons 2 spoiler review, and goes deep on my picks for the top five best cards of the set.

Modern Horizons 2 is no ordinary set, and this is no ordinary Modern Top 5. To go as deep as possible on the picks, we'll split the article into two meaty halves, going over places #5-3 today and unveiling the two grand finalists tomorrow. But first, the metric!

Setting the Metric

Leave it to me to have already designed a perfectly usable metric for this evaluation: the original power/flexibility/splashability scale introduced four years ago, which lends itself well to general overviews like this one for a whole expansion. Here's an explanation of that, for those of you who haven't seen it in just shy of half a decade.

No Modern Top 5 would be complete without a metric. Since the top cards in a given expansion can include any type of spell—planeswalker,Ā hate,Ā beater—we’ll aim to use the most general metrics possible. I think those happen to be the ones established in the series’s first entry,Ā Modern Top 5: Utility Cards. Here they are again.

  • Power: The degree ofĀ impact theĀ card tends to haveĀ for its cost.
  • Flexibility: The card’s usefulness across diverseĀ situations and game states.
  • Splashability:Ā The ease with which Modern decks can accommodate the card.

Power and flexibilityĀ will be ratedĀ by considering bothĀ a card’s floor (the least it will do) and its ceiling (its best-case scenario). For example,Ā Lightning Boltā€˜s power floor is higher thanĀ Fatal Pushā€˜s, as Push is dead when opponents have no creatures while Bolt can go to the face.

Splashability will be rated by considering how many existing Modern decks can accommodate the card and whether they’ll want it. For example, despite its lack of a color identity,Ā Ghost QuarterĀ doesn’t fit into BGx midrange decks. These decks can easily runĀ Fulminator MageĀ as mana disruption instead, and prefer not to miss a land drop if they don’t have to.

Each metric will be rated out of 5, giving cards a total rating out of 15. As ever, the usual disclaimer stands: just because a card scores low or doesn’t make the list means little in terms of its overall playability. After all, splashability is a metric. Some of the strongest cards in the format in terms of raw tournament wins are themselves rather limited in terms of which decks can employ them.

Incarnations Need Not Apply

While the better Incarnations do score enough points on these metrics to make the Top 5, we've already ranked and gone over them in detail, and I wanted to cover them as a group. But for reference, I'd score them as follows in terms of overall points:

  • Grief: 8/15
  • Fury: 8/15
  • Endurance: 9/15
  • Subtlety: 11/15
  • Solitude: 12/15

That means the latter two would edge out the picks in today's article. As we saw yesterday, this cycle is unmistakably quite pushed and very powerful. With that out of the way, though, let's check out MH2's top non-Incarnation cards.

#5: Sudden Edict

Overall: 9/15

Power: 3

Two mana to remove a creature? Yawn! This is the format of Path to Exile, Fatal Push, and the infamous Lightning Bolt. But there are some things even Path can't take out, such as a cheated-in Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or a full-grown Hexdrinker. Edict doesn't ask questions, as it doesn't care what your opponent might have to say: if they only have out one creature, it is 100% getting off the table, even if they're smugly gripping Counterspell. Split second makes the card a strict upgrade to Diabolic Edict, a card played in Legacy to this day for its renowned versatility.

Flexibility: 3

Edict is flexible in that it can potentially remove anything, which is more than any other instant in Modern can say for itself—even Emrakul, the Promised End, with its derpy "protection from instants," is Edict food. But it's still held back by a couple factors. For one, it costs two mana, which lowers its potential use in many situations relative to something like Fatal Push. And second, removing one key threat with high accuracy is dependant on opponents not having other creatures they can sacrifice instead. That sits this card somewhere in the middle for me flexibility-wise, but make no mistake: it's Edict's potential flexibility in certain scenarios that will guarantee it long-term Modern play as of Horizons becoming legal.

Splashability: 3

Sudden Edict is no harder to splash than Tarmogoyf, but players may lack incentive to do so. For example, white decks have less use for Edict since they've already got Modern's other premier removal, like Path to Exile and Prismatic Ending. Other strategies still prefer efficient removal to cards that can delete an Emrakul. For these reasons, the card seems mostly destined to show up in the sideboards of black-heavy midrange decks and black-featuring combo decks, which it will for maybe ever. It's absolutely coming in for matchups where players want all the removal they can get, but also provides a blanket check to strategies that were previously tough to stop, such as those focused on sneaking in a hit with Griselbrand or Emrakul ASAP.

#4: Urza's Saga

Overall: 10/15

Power: 5

Urza's Saga did not receive much press compared to the set's more straightforward goodies, but I believe it's quietly among the best cards in Modern Horizons 2. Part of what makes players allergic to Saga is its weirdness: there is just no precedent for a card like this, let alone an enchantment land. As sometimes happens without precedent, early designs can prove busted in application (see also: Lurrus of the Dream-Den; Skullclamp; Tarmogoyf; Jace, the Mind Sculptor).

Power level illustrates how much the card does for its cost. Saga is a zero-mana play that, when sequenced properly, locks in a pair of massive beaters and tutors a critical artifact from the deck. Being a land, it's also incredibly difficult to interact with meaningfully, being immune to the likes of Abrupt Decay, Prismatic Ending, Thoughtseize, and more.

Here is an example sequence that will see plenty of action in artifact decks going forward. Take for granted that the Saga player makes their land drop each turn.

  • Turn three: Play Saga, tap it to do something else
  • Turn four: Tap Saga and two lands to make a Construct
  • Turn five: Draw for turn, tap Saga and two lands to make a Construct tutor Basilisk Collar, equip it to the first Construct, and attack for a life swing of 6+

Much of Saga's power lies in its reliability, and the above constitutes what I'd consider a pretty comprehensive plan for a card whose floor is literally being a land that taps for colorless. One strike against Saga is that it will be traded in for an artifact every time; there's no option to keep it around as a land. But because of how saga enchantments work, players can still float a colorless in the main phase of that last turn to make their big play, and the mana it would normally cost to cast a one-mana artifact is on the house—if we're talking raw mana numbers, Saga is a Sol Ring on that final turn. I've found that being smart about which turn Saga is deployed, rather than just slamming it right away, allows for enough planning that trading it for a choice one-drop is almost always a big benefit.

The natural next question: how good is Construct? Without any other artifact support, that lifelinker (and its partner blocker) will be a 3/3 on the turn it crashes into the red zone. With just a single additional artifact, even Darksteel Citadel, it grows to the much larger 4/4, and things just scale up from there. When chaining multiple Sagas, they rapidly become enormous. In an artifact-heavy shell, the ability to pump two massive tokens out of a land that's also tutoring up a critical card will make Saga among the better cards in the deck, both to open and to draw into at any game stage.

Flexibility: 4

Even though it "only" taps for colorless, Saga offers pilots oodles of versatility. Sure, players can always just make two big dudes and go to town with a Collar. But there are unending variations on this sequence: players need not make a Construct every turn if they have other things to do with their mana (although waiting to plop down Saga until one's other options are more or less depleted extracts maximum value from the land), and they can search up any number of powerful artifacts. Among the juiciest:

  • Basilisk Collar
  • Grafdigger's Cage
  • Relic of Progenitus
  • Pithing Needle

Beyond whichever trinkets are best in the mainboard, any of these cards can be run at a single copy in the sideboard to be playing a functional five copies in game 2, four of which can't be countered or discarded and will come into play directly from the deck (essentially with suspend 2) without charging players a single mana. And for specific decks or more niche uses, there are plenty more intriguing artifacts to choose from.

Key cards in specific decks:

  • Amulet of Vigor
  • Animation Module
  • Colossus Hammer
  • The Rack

Niche options and bullets:

  • Bomat Courier (we're gonna be attacking anyway)
  • Expedition Map (keep them Sagas coming, or turn Saga into a tutor for lands)
  • Mishra's Bauble (Urza's Saga: the rich man's Horizon Canopy!)
  • Nihil Spellbomb (for those in black who like their graveyards)
  • Brittle Effigy (heavy-duty creature removal in a pinch)
  • Zuran Orb (sorry Burn)

That's a huge array of possible Saga searches, and the pool will only grow as Wizards continues printing Magic cards. Deploying Saga with some foresight lets players very reliably access an otherwise highly surgical piece of disruption on just the right turn, a godsend for the decks that can fit the land.

Splashability: 1

Here's where Saga drops the ball. Few decks in color-hungry Modern can afford to sleeve up colorless lands, and Saga also requires players to include one-drop artifacts that might not see play in the build otherwise. So besides meshing with a few very specific strategies, Saga demands significant commitment while deckbuilding.

Because maximizing Saga is a mana-intensive affair, it plays exceptionally well with mana rocks, as these also happen to grow the Constructs. Realistically, though, any artifact-heavy deck that's not too demanding color-wise will love packing 2-4 of these. I'm thinking Urza, Lord High Artificer decks as well as ones that could use the bodies as blockers or a Plan B, but will mostly be drawn to the tutor effect, like Lantern and 8-Rack. And then there's the combo with Titania and Zuran Orb, which may also spawn a deck.

Another home for Saga is Eldrazi, both the colorless aggro strains I'm known for (where Saga shines bright for the bodies; more to come!) and Eldrazi Tron (where it will at the very least be run as a target for Expedition Map), but I imagine may creep up in number as players start to realize it's the best last land they could drop onto the battlefield). Being able to search up Basilisk Collar makes Saga very appealing for decks already locked into Walking Ballista.

#3: Prismatic Ending

Overall: 11/15

Power: 3

Remember, we're measuring power by impact for cost. Much of the time, Ending won't provide an enormous swing on this metric: one mana to remove a one-mana spell; two mana to remove a two-mana spell; and so on. You'll always trade with opponents on mana, unless they cheated out their card that costs between one and five (not likely), and unless they in fact paid an additional cost for their card. Some examples of the latter: they tutor up a creature with Eladamri's Call, essentially making it cost an additional GW; they take themselves down to 8 life for Death's Shadow, a steep condition if the payoff creature gets removed; they gut their own graveyard for Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger, or sink extra mana into kicker, as with Tide Shaper.

But generally, Ending trades with opponents on mana to hard-remove a permanent. Which isn't necessarily bad; people snipe one-drops with Abrupt Decay all the time, while Ending will never overcharge for that kind of effect. It's just deece.

Flexibility: 5

Here's where the points come rushing in. Modern deckbuilding has always been about striking a balance between artifact hate, enchantment removal, cards that interact well against planeswalkers, etc. Being able to target any permanent is the crux that brought Brazen Borrower into the fold of format playability despite its clear drawbacks. And it's the condition that ensures Prismatic Ending will go down as one of the most fearsome pieces of removal in the format.

I remember when Isolate was spoiled and the Modern players I associated with all wondered about its playability here. "It removes Death's Shadow, but also Aether Vial!" "No more worrying about turn one Expedition Map!" "You could nab a Utopia Sprawl!" "Shame about Chalice of the Void, though..." No more! Prismatic Ending (while admittedly slower, at sorcery) does indeed exile Chalice of the Void, as X is payable whether or not players want to remove a high-cost card, and Ending says "or less," letting it remove 0-cost permanents. But it also removes literally everything else. Choke. Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Scourge of the Skyclaves. Batterskull. The Batterskull token, for one mana mind you. And all it asks are two things:

  • The same amount of mana spent by opponents (in terms of tempo, Ending is almost always a wash)
  • That players can produce enough different colors to make full use of converge (in a three-color deck, I'd call it a significant upgrade to Abrupt Decay, and the more the merrier)

It's true that Ending is a sorcery, and that quirk makes many clunkier removal options better in certain scenarios. If this card was an instant, I would give it a 6.

Splashability: 3

The balancing act of converge will limit Ending's widespread adoption. Not only is the card white, traditionally one of the weakest colors in Modern, but players must commit to multiple other colors as well if they want to tap into the sorcery's true power. I do think Ending is good enough to splash for, but not so much that all decks lacking white entirely will want to eschew on-color solutions to problem permanents such as Maelstrom Pulse or Abrade. Ending is by no means a death knell for all utility removal options. But in the decks that can swing it, absolutely.

Making a Splash

There's no doubt these cards will rock the Modern format. But a couple still remain that I'd peg as even more worthy of splashing, discussion, and... dare I say it... fear. Join me tomorrow for an in-depth discussion of the two best cards in Modern Horizons 2!

MH2 Overview, Pt. 2: Playing the Part

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To quote a great doctor, "the M.H. saga continues." Yesterday, we considered the decks to be impacted and created by Modern Horizons 2, and today, we'll look at at the many role-players present in the set.Ā Let's begin with the Incarnation cycle (ranked!), after which we'll check out new removal, utility, and build-around options. Finally, it wouldn't be a for-Modern set without some targeted hate, so we'll peep those as well!

Utility Incarnate: The MH2 Pitch Cycle

Among the flashiest cards in Modern Horizons 2 are those that make up the new pitch cycle, or provide an effect for free should players elect to exile a card from their hand. These are a different breed from the pitch cycle in MH1, as they're all Incarnation creatures with evoke, giving them added utility as aggressively-costed bodies. Between that utility, their "free" mode, and their unique and powerful effects, the members of this cycle are sure to support heaps of Modern strategies in the years to come—except, ironically, for Grief, the first card of the cycle to be spoiled and in my eyes far and away the weakest. So it would come in at #5 on a ranking system. Let's keep going from there!

#4: Fury

In terms of straight-up effects, Fury can often have the most impactful, offering casters a pair of Forked Bolts. These can dismantle an enemy board with the utmost precision, dealing one to a dork, two to a creature, and another two a minused walker, for instance; all the excess damage goes to the dome, of course, which makes Fury very low-commitment. Indeed, I imagine it will often be cast as a kill spell with some trample.

The spell loses some points for speed; being a sorcery, Fury can't interact with enemy combos, which dramatically lowers its value as a free spell. And it will be pretty tough to cast in most of the decks that want it. Besides, pilots don't get much for shelling out the five mana; double strike is certainly a great ability, but it's not close to at its best on a 3/3 in Modern. The damn thing dies to Lightning Bolt!

Where to find it: Red-heavy combo, midrange, and control decks might want Fury as a way to take apart fishy boards of hatebears or just beaters. But how many of those can you name? Storm?

#3: Endurance

Being green, Endurance has the most aggressively costed body of the cycle. A 3/4 with reach and flash is one dangerous spider, taking out any of Modern's Stage 1 creatures as they dash naively into the red zone as well as pricier utility threats that don't know any better (including, say, Lurrus of the Dream-Den). The threat of Endurance from green decks will have players thinking twice before they come in with the team, and make casting spells in the second main phase more important than ever.

On the flip side, its effect is the narrowest of the cards here, but still quite impactful when it matters: putting the graveyard on the bottom of the library is somewhat better than exiling it, where players still retain some degree of access to the cards. And doing so for free at instant speed will blow out a bevy of Modern combos so long as players draw into Endurance before that critical turn.

Where to find it: Endurance is likely to do the most damage out of something like Amulet Titan, Infect, or Elves. These are combo-oriented decks that incentivize opponents to swing in big and early as they race to beat the clock, and that's a game state Endurance takes advantage of on defence. Plus, it's 0-mana graveyard interaction on the same sideboard slot.

#2: Subtlety

Aether Gust has proven itself a fixture of the Modern tournament scene, popping up in sideboards everywhere even now that Uro's long gone and Tarmogoyf has been dethroned as the king of two-drops. That's because topping or bottoming (heck, you choose!) a permanent or spell on the cheap provides a massive tempo swing. (Aside: pour one out for my boy Memory Lapse who did not end up getting a reprint.)

Subtlety gives up Gust's ability to hit permanents for the broader ability to hit all creatures or planeswalkers, regardless of color, while they're still on the stack. In that sense, it's a psuedo-Memory Lapse, playing more like a counterspell than a kill spell. The 3/3 body provides a clock in its own right, and it all comes together for a bargain bin price of 4 mana.

Where to find it: Expect Subtlety primarily out of blue-heavy creature decks like Merfolk, but also in slower control and midrange shells, where it will buy precious time in the early game.

#1: Solitude

Solitude casts the mythical Swords to Plowshares, a card that has yet to come to Legacy-lite, ahem, I mean Modern. On a 3/2 lifelinking body, that's all players might need to turn the tide of a game. But having a free, instant-speed Swords is also nothing to sneeze it, giving Solitude two highly impactful modes in one neat package. Mix in flash and it's a potential double-removal spell, trading with one attacker while exiling another, or just an end-of-turn tempo swing, taking out a lone blocker to crack back for a six-point swing.

Where to find it: Since Swords to Plowshares is such a versatile spell, and Solitude's many modes make it such a versatile creature, I can see Solitude supporting strategies as diverse as midrange, control, and fish-style aggro like Death & Taxes. My initial impression is that just about every fair deck with a high white concentration will want this card. Oh, and that Ephemerate interaction people were losing their heads about when Grief was spoiled? It's actually on-color with this guy! Instant staple!

Additional Support

Modern Horizons 2 is chock full of cards generic enough to be splashed across multiple strategies, but useful enough for players to actually want them. These spells provide a welcome boost to Modern's overall power level as they expand the pool of playable role-players, ultimately giving deckbuilders more choice regarding who they want to beat and how. They're my favorite kind of new card!

Removal

Seal of Removal: Seal of Fire was already played in prowess decks, and I imagine storing Unsummon on a get-it-now prowess trigger will be very exciting for those same mages. After all, Unsummon is a more reasonable Modern card than Shock. (Don't @ me. Just cuz I've always wanted to say that.)

Suspend: Temporary removal, just like Unsummon. Except it's not quite like Unsummon, because the creature can't be cast the following turn; delay-wise, it's more like Reflector Mage. Of note, the creature gets haste when it returns, and opponents don't have to spend mana recasting it, making it worse than Mage or Unsummon when it comes to sapping tempo. I'd say most of Suspend's potential comes from its interaction with Teferi, Time Raveler, which forces the card to just stay exiled. Very likely to see play in decks that both a) run Teferi and b) might want to hit their own creatures with Suspend to double up on ETB triggers or protect against removal.

Bone Shards: Very flexible removal spell that is sure to see use in strategies that like discarding (Hollow One, Dredge, etc.). Off the bat, Shards strikes me as a significant upgrade to Lightning Axe. Sacrificing a creature seems like a steep cost, but since discarding remains a possibility, it's straight upside over Axe. You can drop a 1/1 Elemental token for this thing and keep that Bedlam Reveler in hand!

Vindicate: The known and feared Vindicate, at last in Modern. Goodbye, Malestrom Pulse! And goodbye, Steam Vents!

Nevinyrral's Disk: The known and not-so-feared Nev Disk. This is Modern, not Commander, so Disk is unlikely to make huge waves. Tron might want it over some number of Oblivion Stone; it's pretty nice against Blood Moon, as Tron can tap out for it, then crack it on the following turn and unlock all their lands immediately.

Utility

Bone Shredder: Fleshbag Marauder upgrade for creature toolbox decks.

Karmic Guide: Reanimate spell for creature toolbox decks. Or... combo piece?

Fire // Ice: A storied utility instant, featuring both Forked Bolt and Niveous Wisps one a single card. Cantrip, removal, combo stopper... what's not to love? Neither side is very powerful, true, but it may show up in URx midrange and bigger tempo decks, such as Kiki-Exarch.

Sword of Hearth and Home: The rumors were true... not all the utility cards are reprints! Hearth and Home is an appealing Stoneforge target for Ephemerate decks. It's also ramp, making the card potentially deadly out of such strategies. Of course, they still need to connect, but the potential of blinking Stoneforge itself makes Hearth and Home a potential engine-in-a-can.

Nobody Asked, But Cool

Goblin Anarchomancer: Goblin Electromancer and Baral, Chief of Storms see play in Storm, where they lower the cost of the requisite rituals for comboing off. Anarchomancer might see play in a similar kind of deck that aims to power out creatures or planeswalkers ahead of schedule. So far, that deck hasn't existed, but I'm anxious to see what it might look like.

Mishra's Factory: The best manland comes to Modern, giving Mutavault a run for its money in decks that don't need the tribal synergy. Granted, that's not many, but Factory also gives Blinkmoth some competition in Affinity and related artifact decks. I mean, it's juts so big!

Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth: Urborg for Forests. Yawn with raised eyebrows.

Some Hate for Your Plate

All that support don't come for free. Leave it to Wizards to rain on our fun. Or, rather, give us the tools to rain on someone else's.

Creatures

Cursed Totem: An incredible hoser against the right decks, shutting down mana dorks, tap effects, and every other activated ability. But Totem is also very narrow. Anyhow, this is the real reason Heliod decks are no longer Tier 0. (jjjkkk.)

Dress Down: Now that's more like it. Kiss your creature combo turn goodbye. Plus a cantrip even when it's not useful, and when is it not useful? Against most decks, Dress Down provides at least a Stifle, stopping a Kroxa trigger or a Confidant reveal or a Hierarch from tapping in the main phase or a Scourge of the Skyclaves from existing. Yes, it murders Scourge of the Skyclaves and then cantrips. Yes, it turns Death's Shadow into a 12/12 for the turn. Yes, grow big Goyf. A+ from ya boi.

Colorless

Void Mirror: Tron can still cast their spells using Forest, or the mana from Chromatic Sphere. But they need to tap Forest to cast another Chromatic Sphere, so I'm not sure this card is totally blank against them. Granted, it's much better against decks like Colorless Eldrazi, which have little choice other than to pack some color-producing lands if this nasty trinket catches on. And why wouldn't it catch on? It also hoses Suspend and various cheaty things. Wizards be like: cheaty this zero-mana Warp World! Also Wizards: no cheaty! How Modern of them.

Obsidian Charmaw: This one's for the mainboard, especially in those red stompy decks that show up from time to time. What were they called again? Spread? Steed? Anyway, while Ponza and its ilk like to destroy basic lands so Blood Moon can do its dirty, Moon's not always online, and Charmaw is pretty much guaranteed targets in every Modern matchup. Sometimes it costs two mana, but it's a deal at three. This is officially the first Dragon I want to cast off Sarkhan, Fireblood.

Break the Ice: A Sinkhole retrain for our time. Can we really not have Sinkhole? As things stand, this one feels a bit niche.

Graveyards

Sanctifier en-Vec: Rest in Peace on a stick that singles out black and red. But most valuable things being dumped are black and red. Arclight Phoenix, Prized Amalgam, Stinkweed Imp, Bloodghast, Hogaak... oh wait, wrong Horizons. Yeah, this card will see hella play. Unlike blowing up lands for two mana, protection is actually broken, perhaps especially on a Rest in Peace that can't be Nature's Claimed, Abrupt Decayed, Lightning Axed... bruh, how does Dredge even kill this thing?

Dauthi Voidwalker: Might as well have Leyline of the Void on a stick, too. This one's a lot worse than Sanctifier, but not without its potential. Black could always use more hosers. That second ability seems like a whole lot of text for nothing.

Blessed Respite: Gaea's Blessing, meet Fog. Soothing Rest, meet The Sideboard. Rest is a versatile card that ironically fails to fulfill a key goal of Gaea's Blessing in the decks that side it where it's legal, which is to not lose against Mill. We'll miss the cantrip, too.

Walkers and Burn

Walkers and Burn, huh? Okay, not exactly cohesive, but that's what's left!

Flame Blitz: So you hate planeswalkers. Boy, have we got the card for you! Blitz is the one-mana walker sweeper that just keeps on sweeping. And if opponents don't have any, it can just be cycled. Value! Or if you already resolved one. Value! Or you could just cast that second one and deal 10 to all the walkers every round. You do hate planeswalkers, don't you?

Blossoming Calm: Seems like decent Burn hate on paper: best-case scenario, you counter a Boros Charm, then gain 4 life over the course of two turns. That's 8 life for one mana. But wait... what about Life Goes On? Indeed, the decks that can support it will favor Life Goes On, which doesn't need opponents to target them with a juicy spell to get off. But Calm is more splashable and has the benefit of stopping big plays like Grapeshot and even effects like Liliana of the Veil's -2 or a Glimpse the Unthinkable, giving it wider applications in Modern generally than just stopping Burn.

Love 'Em or Hate 'Em

Whether you're down with the crew or screaming "down with the new," there's something for you in Modern Horizons 2! You hear that, Wizards? Better tap my jingle-writing for MH3! As for the rest of you still reading, join me tomorrow for the final segment of this comprehensive spoiler review: my Top 5 cards of the new expansion. Or have I given them away by now?

MH2 Overview, Pt. 1: Home Cooking

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The bars are opening, and with them, certain among the FNM registry's many stinky basements. In other words, it's officially Christmas. And if you don't celebrate Christmas, well, it's time to start: Modern Horizons 2 is fully spoiled as of yesterday! On that note, I'm thrilled to welcome you, fellow Modern fanatic, to the first of three consecutive articles forming a comprehensive look at the many playables in the latest and greatest Magic: the Gathering set (or, dare I say... of all time?!).

Home is where the heart is, so today's segment focuses on the Modern decks both revitalized by and spurred into being thanks to the new printings. Tomorrow, we'll look at the more generic support (and, of course, hate) printed to support or reign in different playstyles. And on Saturday, I'll unveil my picks for the top five best cards in the set.

New Decks

Besides just "helping Dredge," Modern Horizons 2 will create some brand-new strategies in the format. There are plenty of great cards here, but not all of them have a home... yet!

Tokens

Let's get the least impressive new deck out of the way first: Tokens. The payoffs introduced in Modern Horizons 2 are among the weakest in the set (exception: Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer), but I'd wager the potential synergies are charming enough to tempt players into building towards them.

Lonis, Cryptozoologist: Lonis investigates whenever a creature enters the battlefield, which isn't the toughest condition to meet. With that being said, it's a lot harder than existing options (see below). Where the Legend really shines is with its tap ability, which converts those many clues, formerly mana sinks, into mana and card advantage, flipping the script on their usefulness and letting players cast an opponent's cards for free.

Fae Offering: Generating one of each token is exactly where those serious about this archetype will want to be. Given Modern's wealth of versatile options, including Mishra's Bauble, Manamorphose, Noble Hierarch, and the like, it won't be too tough to meet Offering's condition on most turns, turning this unassuming enchantment into a potentially value-laden enabler.

Academy Manufactor: Um, let's start over: generating three of each token is exactly where those serious about this archetype will want to be. Manufactor turns Fae Offering, and especially simpler set-up cards, into nightmares for opponents to dismantle; in other words, it gets the ball rolling big-time.

Existing options: Modern has its share of cards that play nice with these theme. I'd say best of all is the already-played Tireless Tracker, which combines with fetchlands to pump out a grip of clues. I wonder if Standard all-stars like Goldspan Dragon and Galazeth Prismari won't be suitable payoffs here too, given their absurd potential when combined with these newer cards. Overall, though, the token theme strikes me as a little cute and a little durdly, and if it comes to be, will be floated mostly by Ragavan.

Enchantments

Up next is a carry-over from Legacy, although Enchantments is less of a Legacy deck than ever. What better time than now to port it over to Modern, and with some new toys to boot?

Sterling Grove: The first reprint on our list, Grove gives players access to a toolbox element, and as we know there's no shortage of surgical enchantments in Modern. That means Grove is something of a themed Demonic Tutor, and it also provides the buff of granting shroud to important pieces in a lockdown. At two mana, it's sure to be a staple in the deck, at least in its early stages.

Enchantress's Presence: Another reprint, Presence is the classic draw engine for Enchantress decks, taking its name from Argothian Enchantress (at this time, still not in Modern). At two mana, this one is sure to be a staple in the deck well into its old age. When Presence stops being good, the deck itself stops being good. And yeah, this is the hyper-aggressive, hyper-punishing Modern, so that may or may not be out of gate.

Sanctum Weaver: At last, a newbie! Weaver is Serra's Sanctum on legs, with the added benefit of making any color mana. Of course, Sanctum is much better, as it costs no mana and can't be Bolted; Modern may well be on its way to becoming Legacy-lite, but not without the caveat of Wizards deciding which cards to exclude from the format. I wouldn't hold my breath for Sanctum and its cycle-mates Gaea's Cradle and Tolarian Academy (okay, this last one is banned even from Legacy).

Sythis, Harvest's Hand: And here's our Argothian Enchantress retrain! I'd say losing shroud in Modern definitely hurts more than the lifegain helps, but we can't call this two-mana Nymph quite a strictly-worse version. In multiples, that life gain will surely add up into a win a nonzero percentage of the time.

Existing options: I can see some of these cards finding their way into Bogles; for example, Presence is a lot more appealing than the Bolt-able Kor Spiritdancer in some instances, and may at least inspire a split. The newer Omen of the Sea seems incredible in a deck that's all-in on casting enchantments, and since that and Abundant Growth already see play in the high-volume Yorion decks, there may even be an 80-deck Enchantments deck on the horizon. Those one-mana enchantments (Utopia Sprawl too) play especially nice with these newer payoffs.

Affinity

New deck? Affinity? New deck? That's right, folks: since the Mox Opal ban, Affinity is nowhere to be found, by and large replaced (if half-assedly so) by Hardened Scales. And if you really want to get real, Affinity was never really real Affinity anyway, at most points featuring zero cards with the word itself even printed on them. So yes, Affinity. New deck.

Thought Monitor: Thoughtcast on a body. That makes this something of a draw three, with the extra mana cost being channeled directly into one of the cards, itself always a 2/2 flier. Good enough indeed, as Monitor both affects the board and draws into more gas.

Ethersworn Sphinx: Cascade is a lot better than draw 2. Right? Right...? Well, maybe not! In the build of post-MH2 Affinity I've been seeing pop up in casual online rooms, Sphinx tends to cascade into a mana rock or an Ornithopter. After all, the deck is mostly made up of cheap enablers. The value is still potentially there, and it does replace itself at worst. But I anticipate the main draw to Sphinx will be the slight velocity it provides (you might as well be drawing most of the time) and the massive 4/4 flying body.

Existing options: I mean, you know them—Ornithopter, Memnite, Frogmite. The decklist practically writes itself. The tuning is where things will start to get interesting: Chromatic Star & company, or no? Dispatch vs. Glavanic Blast? Do we run Sphinx at all? How about them tapped artifact lands? Uh... can Wizards unban Seat of the Synod already?! Is Cranial Plating even worth casting in 2021? (jk.)

Existing Decks

Then there are decks that already exist in Modern, and that Wizards graciously decide to throw a freakin' bone here to. Among these are fan-favorites like Merfolk, fan-most-hateds such as Suspend, and domain & delirium, a pair of mechanics that have occasionally centralized deckbuilding choices for other strategies.

Merfolk

As David has noted, Rishidan Dockhand provides a powerful effect on a bulky one-drop, yielding something Merfolk certainly wants. But it's not even the best Merfolk in the set.

Tide Shaper: Shaper is a one-drop and Spreading Seas all in one, with players being given the option to kick it for a mana extra and have what's effectively a Spreading Seas on legs. That's mana disruption and islandwalk enabling on a cheap body. I don't think it'll necessarily be a toss-up as to whether to run Shaper and Dockhand, either, as the two abilities play very well with one another; Dockhand can tie up the opponent's remaining colored mana while Shaper and friends crash into the Island across the board. The land is freed should Shaper die, but that drawback seems quite minimal compared to the upside of running 4.

Svyelun of Sea and Sky: This card doesn't look much like a Merfolk at all, at least in terms of strategic cohesion. But that's okay with me, and potential Svyleun's strength: it gives the deck a desperately needed Plan B. Unlike Merfolk's other threats, Svyelun is perfectly fine to be on the battlefield by itself, and indeed threatens to walk away with games unmolested; indeed, I even saw one out of UW Control the other day. That means potential to claw back into games and defeat board stalls, something Merfolk has traditionally sucked at. And it's not like Svyleun is bad in Merfolk itself: giving all your guys ward makes it considerably harder for opponents to dismantle the pumps-and-islandwalk synergies, incentivizing them to deal with this bulky bad boy first... and good luck with that, if it's indestructible!

Suspend

Up next is Suspend, a deck so named despite the rarity that it even casts its spells off said mechanic; rather, Suspend decks in Modern are more about cheating the cost via cascade or Electrodominance. These new cards either prop up the existing Suspend decks or give them access to entirely new dimensions.

Inevitable Betrayal: This one may find its way into all Suspend sideboards, as it can steal key creatures out of Tron or other big mana strategies. Wurmcoil Engine or Emrakul, the Aeons Torn sure beats making a pair of 4/4s off Crashing Footfalls, and potentially anything else the Suspend deck wants to be cheating.

Glimpse of Tomorrow: New dimension #1, and in my eyes the most likely to spur a new build into being. Glimpse wants players to commit a ton of permanents to the board (mana rocks, etc.) and then cheat out the title card to effectively cascade into Emrakul, Omnipotence, or whatever else. So it's literally Warp World, an eight-mana sorcery that has seen Standard play at the heart of a similar deck. And cheating out a suspend spell is way easier than ramping into eight mana. Not to mention players can just pay two mana to lock it up for 3 turns, which will definitely win games from time to time.

Gaea's Will: New dimension #2, Gaea's Will is a retrain of Yawgmoth's Will, one of the most broken spells ever printed. We may see Will at the heart of a Storm-esque deck with an Electrodominance package or even as a way to just generate a bunch of value in the mid-game for other Suspend decks. I'm the most excited about the possibilities with this one. Of course, it may also end up being a flop.

Resurgent Belief: New Dimension # 3: A suspended Replenish. Belief also has combo potential, albeit in a totally different kind of shell. This deck could run self-mill or enchantment Entombs to set up a lock, or even just tempo- or value-generating enchantments like Omen of the Sea and Seal of Removal, or perhaps a mix of both. An interesting thing about Belief is that its Suspend mode actually isn't so much to ask, costing just two mana and charging two upkeeps before resolving, so it may see play without Electrodominance and the like to push it out early or on demand.

Domain & Delirium

Both of these mechanics have seen Modern play on the most powerful cards respectively featuring them: Tribal Flames; Traverse the Ulvenwald; Grim Flayer; Wild Nacatl; Tarmogoyf. Er... okay, so the last two technically lacked the keywords, but you get the idea. Since the mana is so good in Modern thanks to the fetch-shock norm, and delirium is relatively easy to splash thanks to enablers like Bauble and Manamorphose, all of these cards are liable to see some play, both in and out of dedicated decks.

Scion of Draco: Two mana for a 4/4 flier that gives all your creatures useful keywords? Talk about pushed. Players will need all five basic types to pull that off, but given that Tribal Flames has incentivized Zoo decks to splash every color as recently as last month, the strategy is far from dated, and players will absolutely make Draco work.

Territorial Kavu: This guy is amazing as well. Even better than Draco, if you ask me! Part of what makes Kavu so appealing is that it's a terrific rate even without the full five basic land types, so four-color aggro decks can make good use of him, too. Still, it will definitely appear alongside Draco in revamped domain decks. It's cheap, huge, and provides both card filtering and incidental graveyard hate. What's not to love?

Dragon's Rage Channeller: Which brings us to delirium. Four card types is a lot to ask on a Stage 1 creature, as I found out testing Gnarlwood Dryad in Delirium Zoo. But in a dedicated delirium aggro shell, Channeller may well support a cast that includes Dryad. It helps that Channeller provides not just card filtering, but graveyard dumps, and that it becomes a 3/3 flier, which is tremendous for the one-mana cost. My pick for best delirium card in MH2.

Bloodbraid Marauder: Flashier than Channeller, as it's got Bloodbraid Elf's text box for half the cost. But keep in mind that delirium generally asks players to stuff their decks with air like Mishra's Bauble, weakening the potential hits, and that Marauder can't cascade into two- or three-drops, which will make the value it generates a lot lower on average than what Elf can come up with. Still, it should slot right into the delirium aggro deck.

Unholy Heat: The most splashable of the delirium spells, Heat kills a heck of a lot for one mana... provided players can meet its condition reliably. Six is a critical number in Modern, destroying the format's biggest and baddest creatures (including Primeval Titan). In the meantime, 2 damage does snipe a fair bit.

Shoe-Ins

The following cards are very likely includes in existing Modern decks, but won't transform the archetype by any means. They'll just soup it up a bit. In alphabetical order, because why not?

Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar: Hollow One, for which it's essentially Wild Nacatl. And hey, searching up the The Underworld Cookbook seems fine to lock in a discard outlet. You can thank this card (whose name was also so long it screwed up the mana cost) for offsetting up my typeline, by the way. (Not that it wasn't already doomed by my insistence on uploading images for every single new card.)

Damn: Black-heavy control and midrange with access to white. That means you, Esper Control! On power level: it's past due Wrath of God received an upgrade. And black some no-questions-asked two-mana removal. Two birds with one stone.

Defile: Anything Swamp-heavy. 8-Rack? Urborg, welcome into the fold!

Esper Sentinel: Humans. Not very aggressive, so potentially a sideboard card, but extremely powerful a lot of the time, especially with built-in synergy to grow it. I've seen "Rhystic Buddy" thrown around as a potential nickname; co-sign.

Flame Rift: Burn. I will note that in this more-combo-oriented-than-Legacy Modern format, 4 damage to each player might not be optimal; in racing scenarios, it's often less impressive than even Skullcrack, which provides a 3-point swing compared to Rift's 0-point swing. (Lightning Helix is king in these scenarios, generatingĀ  a 6-point swing; Helix-or-Rift metagames, anyone?)

Fractured Sanity: Mill.

Quirion Ranger: Elves.

Riptide Laboratory: Faeries as a one-of, and potentially other slow Wizards decks. These are generally Tier 3 or worse, but Laboratory will nonetheless find a place in them.

Shardless Agent: Suspend, but also random UGx midrange decks, and maybe Urza shells. This card will be find a ton of homes. Run with 4 Bloodbraid Elf for Modern Waterfalls, and with the new Bloodbraid Marauder for even more cascade giggles! (Or don't, and that guy at your FNM will.)

Zabaz, the Glimmerwasp: Hardened Scales. Maybe Affinity, depending on how that shakes out.

Other Build-Arounds

These are very likely to see play in some capacity, but in newer shells, or in ways we haven't yet seen. Reverse-alphabetical this time. U mad?

Verdant Command: Very competitive as a token generator, for the decks that want that kind of thing, including Transmogrify strategies. It does cost a card, but Command offers plenty of utility for those in the business of breeding Squirrels.

Upheaval: A Commander favorite sure to be built towards as a one-card combo finish. Likely to be fringe, in the same way that Blue Tron is fringe, but to nab a result here or there. For the Spikes scratching their heads, Upheaval's big ticket is that it also bounces lands, acting as a heavy-duty reset button.

Persist: Wizards didn't just want us reanimating Griselbrand and Emrakul every time. But part of the reason Modern players love reanimating Griselbrand and Emrakul is that they're actually targetable by the two-mana Goryo's Vengeance. Persist opens many doors for reanimator strategies, and we may start to see some strategic variety among them, too, as they lean into midrange and ease up on their combo dimensions. I imagine Persist is attractive for Ghost Dad, for instance, but even moreso that it could create new Ghost Dad-type decks that aren't themselves locked into reanimating Obzedat and Jace.

Murktide Regent:Ā Blue Tombstalker. Possibly not good enough in Modern. We have Scourge of the Skyclaves now, as well as, say, Pteramander.

Kaldra Compleat: Gives Batterskull some competition in terms of juicy Stoneforge Mystic picks. I even ran into a fully-invested white build trying to slam these as fast as possible via not just Mystic, but Quest for the Holy Relic. And all because haste is Time Walk.

Imperial Recruiter: Now this is a high-profile reprint! Previously, Recruiter was going for hundreds of dollars based on Legacy demand alone. It really gets anything, and isn't restricted to type like Goblin Matron, meaning this creature will see play in all the fish, value, or toolbox decks that could want it and are down to splash red.

Ignoble Hierarch: I'm itching to see the shells Ignoble Hierarch inspires. Mid-sized Jund aggro? Good ol' Jund Rock, but with dorks? Who knows! All that's for certain is that this evil (not to mention smelly) Noble Hierarch will see heaps of play.

General Ferrous Rokiric: Hexproof from monocolored spells means he's immune to Bolt, Push, Path, and even Collected Brutality. Then he's making huge bodies whenever a multicolored spell gets cast, including Manamorphose and, like, Burning-Tree Emissary. Oh, and Mantis Rider. Yeah, this guy's a Human! Maybe he should be in Shoe-Ins.... or maybe he'll helm a new multicolored aggro deck more focused on getting opponents dead than disrupting them. Think Voice of Resurgence and Siege Rhino. And Jegantha, the Wellspring!

Braids, Cabal Minion: Papa's got a brand new bag of Smallpox.

Home for Christmas... in July... uh... June

Are these cards slotting into your Modern deck? That new Affinity got your gears turning? Or are you just waiting on that juicy (predictable?) Top 5? Let me know in the comments, and join me tomorrow for the second chapter of our comprehensive Modern Horizons 2 spoiler overview: role-players and hate!

Read Part 2 here.

Five MTG Financial Mistakes I’ve Made and How to Avoid Them

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I started playing Magic in 1994. From those days of poring over printed price guides assembled weeks earlier, to having practically up to the minute prices at our fingertips digitally today, Magic finance has evolved considerably in the past twenty-seven years. Regardless of the decade, some Magic finance lessons are timeless and many of us learned them the hard way over the years. Here’s a countdown of five of the worst MTG finance mistakes I’ve made over the years, what I learned from them, and best practices on how you can avoid them.

Mistake 5 (2000): Trading My Guru Lands For Standard Cards

From July 1999 to February 2001, Wizards of the Coast ran The Guru Program, a program to encourage existing Magic players to teach new players the game. Each "Guru" received a teaching kit including sample decks and earned points towards rewards for each person they taught to play. For every ten points a Guru accumulated, they were awarded a booster pack of the current set, and a unique-to-the-program Guru basic land, chosen at random.

I participated in the program for the early part of its duration and received my set of Guru basics in mid-2000. At the time, I was hot on building a new blue/red mana denial deck in Standard using Parallax Tide, and Tangle Wire and was actively trading for those and other rares to complete the deck.

At the time, I kept most of my Standard-playable cards together in one binder, and it was in this binder that I slipped my Guru lands. When I found a guy who had all the cards I needed for my deck, I was trading out of this same binder. He immediately spotted my Guru lands and offered me most of the rares I was looking for in exchange for the five of them.

The five Guru Basic Lands

The latest issues of Scrye and Inquest we were trading with didn’t list the price of the Guru lands, but the owner of our LGS had his personal set in the case for sale at about $10 each. I was trading for Tangle Wires and Parallax Tides at $8 and $6.50 each respectively, so on paper I was getting a great deal trading for playsets of both for my set of Guru basics, but something about the trade felt off to me. I felt an attachment to the lands because of the effort I’d put into obtaining them, and they were unique compared to the rest of the lands in my collection. I made the trade, built my new Standard deck, and enjoyed playing it, but I regretted parting with my Guru lands. This regret only intensified as they climbed in value exponentially in just that first year.

Lesson: If The Deal Doesn’t Feel Right, Just Don’t Do It

No matter how much value you appear poised to gain, if something about a deal feels off to you, it’s always better overall to just walk away. Sure, if I’d held on to my Guru lands I’d have certainly been forced to work harder to acquire the cards for my Standard deck, but I could have done so without giving up what turned out to be a lot of long-term value both personally and monetarily.

Best Practice: If It’s Not For Trade, Don’t Put It In Your Trade Binder

After this situation, I moved my cards that were for trade into a separate binder, and the only cards that went into that binder were cards I was absolutely prepared to part with. Doing this not only keeps me from having any qualms about what I’m trading away, but it also saves anyone I’m trading with time and aggravation. While it may seem an obvious solution for seasoned MTG financiers, I still regularly sit across from folks trying to make a deal only to find that most of what’s in their binder isn’t for trade, or they are hesitant to part with their cards, as I was in this example. Keeping your trade fodder separate from your real collection makes everyone’s life easier.

Mistake 4 (2009): Trading My Dark Depths For Way Less Than Their Value

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Depths

Today Dark Depths is a powerful and valuable card. Banned in Modern, it sees play only in Vintage, Legacy, and Commander. When Coldsnap first came out in 2006 though, the card was bulk, and I managed to pick up multiple playsets of them as throw-ins in trades because I thought the card was quirky and nostalgic. Fast-forward a few years later, the card had crept up in price, and I began trading away my stash of them at $3 each.

In September 2009, an answer to planeswalkers and anything else with counters on it was spoiled in the new Zendikar set. Vampire Hexmage not only killed planeswalkers, and answered some cards with counters, in combination with Dark Depths, it allowed you to quickly cheat out a Flying, Trampling, Indestructible 20/20. Dark Depths quickly shot up in price to around $20 or more. Not having seen the spoilers that day, I traded six of my copies of Dark Depths away at the $3 going rate they’d been at and didn’t realize until later that the price had exploded.

Lesson: Pay Attention To Spoilers, And Always Double Check Prices

I can’t emphasize enough the importance of spoiler season when it comes to not only making value but protecting yourself from loss. Had I been paying attention, I could have either traded my Dark Depths at the new higher price, or if the price hadn’t immediately spiked, have the knowledge that it likely would increase, and hold my copies rather than move them at a lesser price. I imagine every store who recently sold out of their copies of Chain Of Smog in the hours after Professor Onyx was first spoiled before bumping up their prices felt the same pain I felt trading away my Dark Depths.

Best Practice: Do Your Homework Before Making Any Deals

Sometimes sites won’t have up-to-the-minute price updates. That’s why it’s important to keep up on spoilers so you can react appropriately. As notable fantasy author Terry Goodkind is attributed to have written, ā€œKnowledge is a weapon. I intend to be formidably armed.ā€

Mistake 3 (1998): Cashing Out My Non-Standard Cards To Buy My First Car

In 1998 I was desperate to raise enough money to buy my first car, every teenager’s first major financial investment. I decided to get quick money by cashing out the non-Standard part of my Magic collection, because I wasn’t using them. At the time, my Revised duals were retailing for $10-$15 each at most, so I took the $5 each I was offered for them, plus money from other rares, and walked out with under $200 cash in my pocket. I bought the car, a 1987 Chevy Monte Carlo with low miles, and it was a great first car, but the full-time job I picked up that summer paid way more in a week than the chump change I’d parted with my collection for.

Lesson: When Cashing Out, Only Cash Out As Much As You Have To

Ultimately, I realized I shouldn’t have cashed out as completely as I did, as I wasn’t quitting Magic. There may be times when we need money more than we need cards, but ultimately, if you’re not quitting the game entirely, and you don’t need the money immediately for survival, it’s better to hold cards that you’ll possibly want to use down the road. If you sell them and want them later, you may be forced to buy them back at an inflated premium, as I was forced to do over the next several years.

Best Practice: Always hold onto your mana base.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

If you’re not permanently quitting Magic, but needing funds has you considering cashing in, the best thing I could suggest is not to cash in your mana base. Sell your Thoughtseizes, your Force Of Wills, whatever you need to, but holding onto your duals, your shocks, or your fetches means you’ll have a much easier time jumping back in when whatever’s going on in your life settles down. The most expensive part of a constructed deck, depending on the format or decklist, is usually the mana base, so it’s the only part of my collection that I’m willing to hold onto at all costs.

Mistake 2 (2019): Sleeping on Mystery Booster "Playtest" Cards

When Mystery Booster playtest cards hit the market, they screamed to be added to my cube of Un-, Conspiracy, and quirky cards from throughout Magic’s history (looking at you Shahrazad). I assumed incorrectly when learning about them that they were part of the regular run of Mystery Booster products, akin to the recent Mystical Archives of Strixhaven, and not something exclusive to ā€œconvention edition,ā€ boxes of the product. With the main cards in the set mostly unappealing to me, I didn’t pay much attention to the set, and slept on buying any of the playtest singles floating around at reasonable prices throughout most of 2020.

Lesson: Pay Attention To The Product Details And Know When To Buy

Pretty much any point in 2020 would have been a decent time for me to move in and start picking up Mystery Booster playtest cards. While the top-end cards like Slivdrazi Monstrosity have spiked and fallen and spiked again, many of the lower-priced cards like Wizened Arbiter and Bucket List fell from their initial highs and remained relatively flat for most of 2020.

Best Practice: If It’s Something You Want, Move In When You Can

For cards that I’d planned to buy and hold for personal use, I should have moved in on most of them early after the initial hype died down and prices flattened. Instead, I’ll be looking to draft as many events as I can at my LGS from the small round of product coming to them soon as part of WOTC’s Summer Of Legend, and hoping the influx of product will take the prices of singles back down to 2020 levels.

Mistake 1 (1997): Not Buying A Mint Unlimited Black Lotus For $275

As soon as I turned sixteen, I rushed out and got my first job bagging groceries at the local grocery store. Two weeks later, when that first sweet paycheck arrived, I went straight to the local card shop. My plan was to either buy Cursed Scrolls for Type 2 (Standard), or buy a couple booster boxes of Tempest and hope to crack them. As had been the case for weeks, the shop had no singles in stock, but the shop owner pulled two boxes of Tempest from the shelf behind him and put them on the counter next to the register.

ā€œBefore I ring you out for these, let me show you something,ā€ he said. He took me to a glass case that used to be filled with high-end sports cards, and now had several shelves of Magic singles on display. He opened the case, removed a card from its stand, and put a mint Unlimited Black Lotus in my hands. It was an awesome moment. I had some Unlimited, Beta, and Alpha cards in my collection, mostly commons and uncommons, but I’d never even held a piece of power in my hands before that moment.

ā€œI’ll do it for you for $275,ā€ he said.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Faced with a choice of rolling the dice on two boxes of Tempest and not pulling the cards I needed for Standard, or owning not just an actual piece of power, but theĀ most sought-after card in all of Magic, I hesitated. Either way, this was my entire first-ever paycheck I’d be spending in one purchase. Did I want to spend that on just one card? It’s laughable in retrospect, but these were the thoughts flashing through my sixteen-year-old brain. I handed the card back to him, walked away with my two boxes of Tempest, and away from the cheapest Black Lotus I ever had a chance of purchasing.

Lesson: When A Unique Opportunity Presents Itself, Take It

While I can and did have more opportunities to acquire cards for that Standard deck, that Black Lotus I passed up on buying was sold when I went back to the shop less than a week later. I never saw one in as good condition for that kind of price again. The lesson I begrudgingly learned was that sometimes unique opportunities will come along, and it’s important to be able to recognize those situations and act accordingly.

Best Practice: Be Open To Possibilities Beyond Your Goals And Expectations

I went into the shop looking to buy cards for Standard. By having that rigid goal, I was so tunnel-visioned into purchasing Tempest cards I was unable to recognize the unique opportunity I was presented and to act on it. By keeping expectations open in all my MTG financial moves, and in life in general, I’m better able to act on unique opportunities when they appear.

These are some of the mistakes I’ve made over the years, and the lessons I’ve learned from them. While I know I’ll make more mistakes, the goal is always to learn not only from one's own experience but also from the experiences of others, which helps us all be better prepared to make informed decisions.

What are some MTG finance mistakes you’ve made over the years, and what lessons did you learn from those experiences? Please share in comments or email me at pauljcomeau@gmail.com. I can’t promise I’ll respond to everyone who emails, but I’m interested to hear your own stories, lessons, and best practices.

Modern Horizons 2: Spoilers and More!

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OH BABY IT'S TIME!Ā Modern Horizons 2Ā is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2021. Like the originalĀ Modern Horizons, this set will be introducing new cards to Modern and the other eternal formats while never being legal in Standard. There will be 303 cards total in the set, with 42 of them being reprints.Ā Modern Horizons 2Ā will include draft boosters, set boosters, collector boosters, a bundle, and will be the first non-Standard set with prerelease packs.

Exciting news - all five enemy-colored fetchlands appear in the rare slot and will be able to be found in regular draft boosters! They are also continuing the "old" frame treatment for some of the cards in this set, including the fetch lands. Check back with us frequently for the latest spoilers and my MTG Finance flavored commentary! I’ll be covering our favorite highlights from spoiler season – if you want to see the entirety of everything that has been spoiled you can check out Wizards’ updated card gallery once it has gone online.

June 2, 2021

The time has come, my friends, all of Modern Horizons 2 has been spoiled! What do you think? What are you most excited about? Let me know in the comments, in the QS Discord, or hit me up on Twitter!

We get a fun uncommon goblin today! Goblin Traprunner probably won't see any constructed play, but I'm definitely going to try to draft it because I am a masochist who likes flipping coins! Sojourner's Companion is an awesome-looking affinity Salamander that I imagine will see play in several formats, and it's pretty cute to boot!

Nykthos Paragon looks like a fun enchantment/lifegain piece in Commander and Enchantment players are going to love Resurgent Belief!

June 1, 2021

Magus of the Bridge and Sisay, Weatherlight Captain!

Inevitable Betrayal and Necrogoyf!

Chainer, Nightmare Adept and a Goblin Engineer reprint!

Murktide Regent and Nettlecyst!

Fury and Plague Engineer!

May 31th, 2021

Chitterspitter is one of the funniest card names I've ever seen, and I might be in love with it. Squirrel fans rejoice! Thought Monitor is a sweet creature for Affinity fans. with gorgeous art to boot!

Bloodbraid Marauder's Delirium cost giving it cascade is going to make for an interesting, aggressive card in Modern that I'm excited to see played! Dauthi Voidwalker is some super sweet anti-graveyard tech with a bonus for players playing heavy black!

The retro Prismatic Vista is making me drool! How cool does it look with this treatment? Sol Talisman is quite the interesting way to bring a Sol Ring effect to modern - how good do we think this is going to be in Modern?

May 29th, 2021

Fast and Furious! Moderation!

Fire and Ice and Sanctifier en-Vec!

Karmic Guide and Titania, Protector of Argoth!

May 28th, 2021

I never knew it was something I desperately wanted, but dear reader, you better believe I squealed with joy when we found out that Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer was getting its own card! Previously just seen as a token produced by partner in crime Kari Zev, Skyship Raider, it's about time our favorite monkey pirate got some time in the sun!

Solitude is basically a Swords to Plowshares on a creature, and it seems pretty dang powerful. I'm sure this will see plenty of play with its evoke cost.

Damn and Master of Death!

Braids, Cabal Minion and Geyadrone Dihada!

Endurance and Kaldra Compleat!

May 27th, 2021

Well, well, well. Ask and ye shall recieve! I was begging for the alternate arts for Ignoble Hierarch and my wish was granted! I can't wait to add these to my Goblin collection!

Harmonic Prodigy and Obsidian Charmaw!

Calibrated Blast and Piru, the Volatile!

Mirari's Wake and Upheaval!

Dress Down and Verdant Command!

Territorial Kavu and Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth!

Dermotaxi and HOLY MOLY Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer is getting it's own card!

A neat retro Archmage's Charm and a thopter making Breya's Apprentice!

Esper Sentinel and Solitude!

Nevinyrral's Disk[card] reprint and a very pretty [card]Ranger-Captain of Eos!

Solitary Confinement and Urza, Lord High Artificer!

Sterling Grove and Enchantress's Presence!

Sanctum Weaver seems pretty darn good in an enchantment build!

May 26th, 2021

OH MAN OH WOW I FEEL LIKE THEY PRINTED A CARD JUST FOR ME:

Ignoble Hierarch is a goblin - which anyone who has consistently read my articles knows is my absolute favorite tribe in Magic. I play goblins in every format, and this fun-hating little shaman is going to be tested in all of the ones it's legal in. Not only does this check the box of my ultimate love in Magic, it checks another one of my favorite boxes: it's playable in Modern Infect (which, as I've mentioned before was my first Modern deck and still my favorite pet deck in the format.) This might be the piece that brings the BG Infect lists back into the limelight! People are going to be seriously testing red pump spells! At the very least, I feel like this is Noble Hierarch number five (or six) in the UG infect lists that were running Birds of Paradise in that slot.

Bottom line - I'm in love with this card and crossing my fingers we get a sketch and old frame version.

Carth the Lion and Soulherder!

Sylvan Anthem and The First Sliver!

Mishra's Factory and Suspend!

Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar is a mouthful and this Out of Time is very pretty!

Aeve, Progenitor Ooze and Glimpse of Tomorrow!

Gaea's Will and holy moly humans is getting yet another toy with Imperial Recruiter's reprint!

Lonis, Cryptozoologist and Svyelun, God of Sky and Sea!

May 25th, 2021

Another day of exciting spoilers awaits us! How is everyone feeling about the set so far? I'm getting pretty pumped to try and draft it a few times!

Black Lotus in Modern, Legacy, and Commander? Sort of? Garth One-Eye is a super interesting Legendary Creature with the ability to make copies of some classic cards. I imagine Garth will be relegated to casual Commander tables, but I dig the design and look forward to seeing how people end up using it!

There was a lot of speculation after the squirrel spoilers yesterday that we might be getting a reprint of Deep Forest Hermit - and here it is! I love the frame on this one. Speaking of squirrels... we got even more squirrel hype at the end of the day!

Chatterstorm already has the Pauper community a little worried. Storm wincons have proven to be problematic in the past, so this will be one to keep an eye on. In the meantime, I'm going to try to storm off with SO MANY squirrels! Drey Keeper has some of the best flavor text I've ever seen, and it looks like it could be a ton of fun in Draft or Commander. Speaking of flavor text, the sketch version of Underworld Hermit made me laugh out loud when I saw it on Twitter. Again, this is probably only at home in Draft or Commander, but it's a sweet card.

Grist, the Hunger Tide is one of the coolest designs for a planeswalker that we've seen in a long time. Because of it being a 1/1 Insect whenever it's not on the battlefield, it can be your commander, it can be found by all kinds of spells that normally couldn't find a planeswalker, and it is primed for all kinds of wacky three-mana planeswalker Shenanigans (which is also getting a reprint in this set at uncommon)!

Priest of Fell Rites is a nifty way to get stuff back out of the graveyard, and it comes with Unearth too!

Chef's Kiss might win the prize for best Magic card name ever, and it will make for some random hilarity in your Commander games! Zabaz, the Glimmerwasp is a neat design, but I don't know if it's cool enough to make all the affinity lovers out there forget about the loss of their beloved Mox Opal in Modern.

Well, it looks like Wizards decided Force of Will was too powerful for Modern but they gave us something kind of close with Subtlety - a similar effect on a creature! This will be a fun one to watch as it enters the Modern format.

We also get another fun coin-flip card for those players who love leaving their victories up to chance in Chance Encounter. This is a pretty sweet win-con if you have enough coin-flips packed in your deck! Will it see Modern or Legacy play? Maybe. It'll for sure feature in those sweet, sweet coin-flip Commander decks I love so much.

May 24th, 2021

This morning we were treated to fantastic news: a new squirrel commander! Chatterfang, Squirrel General looks like a super fun build-around card for tribal Commander fans out there, and I know that people are going to do their best to make squirrels happen in Modern too! That lofty goal will be helped along by our brand new squirrel lord, Squirrel Sovereign! A classic 2/2 for two mana lord, Squirrel Sovereign will be awesome to draft at uncommon and be a boon to anyone trying to make squirrel tribal happen in any of the constructed formats it is legal in.

To go along with those squirrels (and a couple other uncommons not shown in this article) we get a Squirrel Mob reprint! Another archetype getting some love is Mill, with the pretty intense seeming Fractured Sanity. Will this be enough to push the Modern Mill archetype up a tier? Possibly! Time will tell!

We are also getting a cool Timeshifted style reprint of Sword of Truth and Justice! We are also getting a reprint of Wonder, which I would argue is less exciting but still kind of neat.

Rise and Shine seems like a pretty neat addition to artifact-based decks, and the sketch version looks AMAZING! Sword of House and Home (which might not be it's actual title) has my Taxes heart feeling full! Here's a potential translation, borrowed from MTGGoldfish:

Equipped Creature gets +2/+2 and has protection from green and from white.

When equipped creature deals combat damage to a player, exile up to one target creature you own and search your library for a basic land card. Put both cards onto the battlefield under your control, then shuffle.

Equip 2.

My head is swimming with potential for the creatures I want to bounce with this, and I can't wait to pair it with my friend Stoneforge Mystic!

Void Mirror takes the cake for the most drama caused on Twitter so far for this spoiler season. This card is going to be sideboard gold against all forms of Tron and some Affinity style decks, to the point that if it drops early enough you're going to be shuffling up and moving onto the next game. Time will tell if it's going to be effective enough to warp the meta, but it's definitely a card that will be living in most Modern players' sideboard for a good long time after release.

May 20th, 2021

Hot dang, there was a whole slew of cool cards spoiled today! Most of the cards spoiled today have several different printings, but for the purposes of saving space, I'm going to default to the Timeshifted frame versions because I like them best.

Dakkon, Shadow Slayer's sketch art is gnarly! At first glance, I don't see it making a huge impact in Modern or Legacy right out of the gate, but I think it will be an interesting card to play with! Timeless Dragon is neat! I like the flavor a lot, and it seems like it'll be a fun one to play in Sealed or Draft events.

I saw a lot of Merfolk players getting pretty excited about Rishadan Dockhand on my Facebook wall today! This is a very classic feeling Merfolk. With Islandwalk and the ability to tap a land, this one drop will make a cool, aggressive addition to the Fish decks out there.

I think this art for Grief is both very pretty and very spooky. This is basically a Thoughtseize that you can pay for like a Force of Will, which seems pretty dang good to me and I wouldn't be surprised to see it being played across from me in either Modern or Legacy.

A tutor! With Suspend! And Richard Kane Ferguson art! If my excessive use of exclamation points wasn't a giveaway, I'm pretty excited about this one. I will be looking for excuses to play with it in all of the formats it is legal in!

Unmarked Grave is also a tutor, but one for the graveyard aficionados out there. There's a good number of graveyard interaction decks that will be testing this out!

This dino tramples over Planeswalkers! Now that's a line of text I wasn't expecting, and I'm here for it. Thrasta, Tempest's Roar looks like it's going to be a very impressive mythic from this set.

Flametongue Yearling is a neat aggressive uncommon, and I'm particularly hyped on the sketch art. I really enjoy having special arts not just for rares!

I love coin flip mechanics (I know several members of my playgroup just rolled their eyes reading that just now) and I'm pretty pumped to flip coins with Yusri, Fortune's Flame! My mind goes first to Commander, but I imagine there is potential for some pretty interesting Modern and Legacy interactions as well.

I wasn't expecting to have Cabal Coffers reprinted into Modern, and I feel like it's either going to end up being super busted or not played at all. I'm excited to see what it does though! Plus, it was a much-needed reprint price-wise for newer players who are getting into Commander.

These are probably the two cards I'm personally most excited for, just because the Timeshifted borders look SO GOOD on them! Giver of Runes is a card I play a ton, and I'm super excited to pick up these versions for all of my Taxes shenanigans.

Force of Negation is going to be a huge hit with this Timeshifted version, and I imagine it'll fetch a premium.

May 6th, 2021

There were some pretty exciting cards spoiled today and the hype is building! Before I start drooling over enemy fetches, let's check out the rad Buy-a-Box promo:

It's a new, old school looking Sanctum Prelate! It won't be found inĀ anyĀ Modern Horizons 2Ā boosters and will mark this Legacy Death and Taxes star's debut into the Modern format. Modern Death and Taxes is going to be excited about this new addition!

Okay, okay, it's fetch time. The enemy fetches are going to be available with normal art, full art, and possibly most exciting (for me) of all: old frame art!

Marsh Flats and Verdant Catacombs!

Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn!

Last, but not least, good ol' Arid Mesa! I really didn't think I was ever going to need or want to upgrade my fetchland collection, but HOLY MOLY do I have a mighty need for these. I also imagine that they are going to be fetching (heh) quite a premium. I wouldn't be surprised if these end up being either the, or close to, the priciest of the enemy fetches.

Counterspell is coming to Modern! The regular version will be at uncommon, but I thought this full art was gorgeous so that's the version I'm using for the article. I've seen people either certain Counterspell won't see much play at all or will see all the play ever, but all I know is our very own Chroberry will be sleeving up a playset and cackling with joy while he gets to play one of his Legacy favorites in Modern.

Diamond Lion is a sweet-looking mana rock of sorts, and I think Howard Lyon's art looks stellar with the old frame treatment.

 

 

Prowess Paramount: May ’21 Metagame Update

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I'm interrupting this spoiler season with an important bulletin: it's time for the metagame update! And this will be a strange one. Although... I'm not entirely clear on what a normal metagame update might look like. I mention that there's something unexpected happening every month. It's never the same weird thing, but it's always something diferent. So, maybe I should be saying "Guess this month's oddity!" Or maybe just shut up and get to the data. Let's go with the latter.

Something to note, even though it doesn't affect anything, is that paper events have started to return. I went to my first in-person FNM in 14 months last week, and it felt amazing. However, it was slightly tempered by the knowledge that eventually, I'll have to include paper events in this data. I'm not sure exactly how I want to deal with paper. The old system wouldn't work quite as well anymore due to overweighting the online results. I'll have to figure out how properly integrate the paper results before actual large events start up again. Probably not for several months if not until 2022. But better to get ahead of the problem.

The Problem With Prowess

Speaking of problems, Izzet Prowess was a huge problem in May. ItĀ vastly over-performed relative to the rest of the field and was skewing the data. This probably sounds familiar, and that's because it should: I said almost the same thing about Heliod Company last month. However, I decided to include Heliod Company in the data because I could not conclusively determine if it was an outlier. This time, it wasn't a problem. Izzet Prowess was clearly an outlier and multiple tests confirmed this as the case. Here's the Izzet Prowess data from May compared to Heliod Company's from April.

Izzet's Total #Heliod's Total #Izzet's Total %Heliod's Total %
Population755915.3611.46
Points11610714.6811.53
Average Points1.551.81

Izzet earned significantly more places and points than Heliod did. That alone might qualify Izzet as an outlier, but the clearer visualization (which I couldn't get onto the table in a way I found ascetically pleasing) is the degree to which they respectively outstripped the competition. Heliod's population was 1.59x's above its next competitor (Izzet Prowess, go figure) and earned 1.53x's the points in April. Izzet Prowess beat Eldrazi Tron's population by 2.5x's and its points by 2.37. That's an absurd gap and would have led me to declare an outlier even if the actual statistical tests had disagreed. Which they decidedly did not.

As a result, I am reporting Prowess's data, but I did not include it in the analysis. Had I included it, Izzet Prowess would have been the only Tier 1 deck. And the number of decks making the list would have plummeted, another clear indication of an outlier. By removing Izzet Prowess, the resultant analysis looks more normally distributed and I believe gives a more accurate picture of what the metagame looks like.

It's NOT Tier 0!

After all I've said, there is a temptation to declare Izzet Prowess Tier 0, something I've never done before. I will resist this temptation and everyone reading should do so too. Izzet Prowess isĀ nothingĀ like Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis or Eye of Ugin-powered Eldrazi. The deck is slightly different from the previous few months when it was Tier 1, but not outstandingly so. Plus, it's taking over the top slot from another deck that just spiked out of nowhere. There's no reason to think that this spike won't also go away.

More importantly, I can explain away Izzet's numbers as nothing more than absurd, unexpected, and arguably unjustified popularity. Check the table again: Izzet averaged only 1.55 points per placement. Which is considerably lower than Heliod's from April, but doesn't really mean much, because the average is a moving peg to be compared to the baseline. And May's baseline average points is 1.58, meaning that Izzet's performance was slightly below average given its population. To be Tier 0, I'd expect any deck to take down sufficient Top 16 or higher slots to stay above the base. Not necessarily sky-high, but well above the baseline.

I can say with certainty from going through all the results: Izzet did not do that. Its position in the tier list is thanks to putting up lots of Preliminary 3-1 and Challenge Top 32 results. It had some good Challenges, but mostly was an average performer. If a deck is adopted in large numbers, it should get lots of results, and the data reflects an expected results from mass adoption.

A Plausible Explanation

I have no idea why Izzet Prowess was so popular. I have no way of finding out besides surveying hundreds if not thousands of MTGO players about their deck choices. I'm too lazy to try to track down individual players and no better than to trust online survey data. I can, however, at least make a grounded and educated guess.

Observation #1: Red decks are popular online

For as long as Modern Nexus has been doing metagame data, we've observed that red decks tend to be more popular online than in paper. There's never been a good explanation for this deviation other than red decks tend to be cheaper than the alternatives. It's never been universally true, but it tends to be accurate. Assuming that players don't like spending money on digital cards, which is plausible, this would lead them to favor red decks over alternatives.

Observation #2: The online metagame is very volatile

Just look back at all the metagame articles I've written. The composition of each tier and which deck belongs where changes wildly month to month, far more than when there were paper results to consider. This is likely caused by the next observation...

Observation #3: Rental services reduce the opportunity cost of deck switching

Straightforward enough—if you don't have to constantly buy and sell cards to make new decks, you can experiment and change decks easily. There's a reason players will buy one deck in paper and play it for years, regardless of metagame positioning (*cough* Jund).

Observation #4:Ā There is a correlation between price spikes and decks falling off

Looking at the price history of key cards and the metagame data suggests that price is a significant factor in deck popularity. For example, Auriok Champion is a key card in Heliod Company. It saw a huge price increase in March with multiple additional spikes in April before falling off in May. At the same time, Heliod exploded in popularity in March, peaked in April, and is no longer anything special. There is a similar pattern for other key cards like Heliod, Sun Crowned. Stormwing Entity is repeating this pattern. Correlation isn't causation, but it is suggestive.

Conclusion: Izzet Prowess's popularity was due to it being cheap to rent. Once the rental time is up, the ongoing card price spike will drive players away, and Izzet will fall off.

We'll see in July whether I was right. But with that out of the way, let's shift gears away from Izzet Prowess to look at the rest of the metagame data.

April Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck ā€œshouldā€ produce on MTGO. Being a tiered deck requires being better than ā€œgood enough;ā€ in May the average population was 6.88, meaning a deck needed 7 results to beat the average and make Tier 3. This is a pretty standard average as these go. Then we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. The STdev was 7.81, so that means Tier 3 runs to 15, and Tier 2 starts with 16 results and runs to 24. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 25 decks are required. Amazing how all those numbers are the lowest ever after I cut out the top performer. Almost like that's how math works.

The Tier Data

May’s data was incomplete relative to April, though not as bad as March's. A PTQ and at least two Challenges did not get reported for reasons unknown. I've been reliably informed that these events were scheduled and fired, so I'm guessing Wizards just messed up. The loss is not severe, but it does mean the individual decks fell slightly from 65 to 61. Had I included Izzet Prowess in the analysis, total decks would have fallen from 20 to 16. Because Izzet was excluded, instead the total decks rose to 23. Which is impressive considering how many slots Izzet gobbled up.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Izzet Prowess7515.36
Eldrazi Tron307.26
Amulet Titan276.53
Heliod Company276.53
Tier 2
Burn245.81
Esper Control215.08
Ponza194.60
Jund Death's Shadow194.60
Dredge174.11
Boros Prowess163.87
4-C Bring to Light163.87
Izzet Through the Breach163.87
Tier 3
Niv 2 Light153.63
Mono-Green Tron122.90
Hammer Time122.90
UW Control112.66
Living End81.93
Grixis Death's Shadow81.93
5-C Bring to Light81.93
Death and Taxes81.93
Sultai Control81.93
Mono-Red Prowess81.93
Inverter71.69

Eldrazi Tron was the best non-Prowess deck. This is not surprising, as mainboard Chalice of the Void grants it an above-average matchup against the most popular deck. I expect E-Tron to maintain a high position so long as prowess variants are popular and disappear again once prowess isn't everywhere. Regular Burn just missed Tier 1 status. Eidolon of the Great Revel is of course very good against Prowess, but Burn is also a red deck that dodges a lot of Prowess specific hate.

Power Rankings

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. However, how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a decks that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects its metagame potential.

Points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins) and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points according to how similar they are to Challenges or Preliminaries. Super Qualifiers and similar level events get an extra point if they’re over 200 players, and a fifth for over 400 players. There were 2 events that awarded 4 points in May but no 5 pointers. The missing PTQ may have been worth 4 or 5 points for all I know.

The Power Tiers

The total points in May were down from April, from 928 to 790. It would have been higher if all the events had been reported, but still wouldn't make April's numbers because there were fewer events. The average points were 11.23, so 12 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 12.92, which is relatively small just like with population, so Tier 3 runs to 25 points. Tier 2 starts with 26 points and runs to 39. Tier 1 requires at least 40 points. Both Inverter and Grixis Death's Shadow failed to make the power list and no other decks replaced them. Inverter justĀ missed with 11 points, but GDS had as many points as it had entries. It epitomizes the deck that made the tiers thanks entirely to population, not being good.

Deck NameTotal PointsTotal %
Tier 1
Izzet Prowess11614.68
Eldrazi Tron497.27
Amulet Titan476.97
Tier 2
Heliod Company395.79
Burn385.64
Ponza355.19
Jund Death's Shadow324.75
Esper Control314.60
Dredge314.60
Boros Prowess304.45
4-C Bring to Light274.00
Izzet Through the Breach263.86
Tier 3
Niv 2 Light233.41
Hammer Time202.97
Sultai Control182.67
Mono-Green Tron172.52
Death and Taxes162.38
UW Control152.22
Living End152.22
5-C Bring to Light142.08
Mono-Red Prowess121.78

Heliod just misses Tier 1. Oh, how the ostensibly broken have fallen. Also worth noting that the top of Tier 2 is mostly red decks. Players should really be metagaming against that color more than they are.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. Using the power rankings certainly helps, and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is.

However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is to look at how far-off a deck is from the baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its ā€œtrueā€ potential. A deck's average points equaling the baseline means that it performed exactly in line with its representation. The further away from the baseline a deck's average is, the more that deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, the deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite.

Deck NameAverage PointsPower Tier
Sultai Control2.253
Death and Taxes23
Boros Prowess1.872
Living End1.873
Ponza1.842
Dredge1.822
Amulet Titan1.741
5-C Bring to Light1.743
4-C Bring to Light1.692
Jund Death's Shadow1.682
Hammer Time1.673
Eldrazi Tron1.631
Izzet Through the Breach1.632
Baseline1.58
Burn1.582
Izzet Prowess1.551
Niv 2 Light1.533
Mono-Red Prowess1.503
Esper Control1.482
Heliod Company1.442
Mono-Green Tron1.423
UW Control1.363

Sultai Control was the best-performing deck relative to its popularity in May. What is Sultai Control? I'm using the descriptor as a catchall term for slow, answer-heavy BUG decks. Each deck was pretty different from the others, united only in speed and strategy. Which may have contributed to its good performance. It didn't actually make the power tier, and so isn't included, but Grixis Death's Shadow did the worst of any deck I've ever had in these articles. Its average power is 1; its presence in the population tier can therefore be attributed to its pilots stubborn dedication to their deck and not to any real success. Which is a paper-player attitude, and not something I'd count on from MTGO players.

Prepare for the Unexpected

In addition to the expected Izzet dropoff, June's update will be wildly different thanks toĀ Modern Horizons 2's arrival. I predict a big surge in Merfolk's popularity. Now I wait to see how prescient I really am.

On Modern Horizons 2 Prices

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I tend not to follow recent sets of Magic these days—my interest in keeping up with the game itself has waned significantly over the past few months. After diving heavily into Magic Arena for about a year, falling in and out of love with the historic metagame, I decided to take a hiatus from the platform.

For this reason, I am intimately familiar with Ikoria and Zendikar RisingĀ but couldn’t name more than a card or two from Kaldheim and Strixhaven.

Of course, I still follow the Magic community closely via my Twitter feed, so I noticed a bunch of pretty cool spoilers lately. As it turns out, Modern Horizons 2 is a set filled with older reprints, cards with classic frames, and a bunch of throw-back references. I never would have guessed that Wizards would have made a card based on the famous chef quoted on Alpha rare Granite Gargoyle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Granite Gargoyle

Because of my interest, I did a quick search to browse the set and see what cards are selling for. After a brief search on MTG Stocks, I am confident this set is extremely overpriced.

How Many $20+ Cards?

According to MTG Stocks’ market pricing, which pulls from market prices on TCGplayer, there are nine cards from the original Modern Horizons set worth more than $20. Force of Negation and Prismatic Vista are both rare, and the other seven cards are mythic rares. MTG Stocks also offers an Expected Value feature, and currently the market-calculated EV for a booster of Modern Horizons is $8.17.

Now let’s skip ahead to Modern Horizons 2, the new set that releases on June 18th. From that set, guess how many cards currently have a market price over $20. The answer: 27! That’s right, there are currently 27 cards that have market prices north of $20.

Don’t get me wrong, this set is sweet. Some of the reprints are of some high-value cards, including the enemy-colored fetch lands and Cabal Coffers. But I just don’t see 27 cards sustaining prices over $20 once the set releases. A few months from now, that number will probably reduce to about one-third, probably to around ten.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

What’s more, of those 27 cards, 11 are rare and 16 are mythic rare. That means about 41% of the cards selling for over $20 are currently rares. Compare that to the first Modern Horizons breakdown, where just 22% (two out of nine) of the cards worth over $20 are rare. This comparison really makes Modern Horizons 2 seem overheated to say the least. There’s no set EV calculated yet for the set, but I have to imagine it is way above $8.17 offered by the first Modern Horizons.

An Additional Factor at Play

There’s a secondary reason I expect the set EV of Modern Horizons 2 to sell off dramatically in the coming months. The first Modern Horizons had no special print variants—you either pulled the regular card or its foil. And with one foil per booster pack, foil prices from the set didn’t merit the same elevated premium as other sets.

With Modern Horizons 2, I still don’t fully understand what you can open in a booster pack. I believe it varies depending on the kind of pack you open. When I visited Scryfall to browse spoilers from the set, I noticed there are a multitude of print variations that exist:

  • Regular printing
  • Alternate-art borderless cards
  • Showcase cards
  • Old-frame bonus sheet
  • Extended art cards

On top of this, I expect at least some of these cards also come in foil, or etched, or some sort of shiny variant. As a result, in Modern Horizons 2, you can open a Misty Rainforest with many different looks.

I hypothesize that this print variation proliferation will reallocate some of the sets value away from standard printings and towards the more premium (rarer) variants. We’ve seen this happen before—Wizards releases a set with certain special, ultra-rare cards, and those cards end up ā€œsubsidizingā€ the value in the rest of the set. For players this is terrific, as the base entry to obtain the cards for play is reduced.

But if you live in MTG finance world like I do, then these special variants bode ill for the value of the regular printings of the set. We’re already seeing this unfold in pre-order prices:

The market price for the Modern Masters 2017 Misty Rainforest is about $60. That’s the ballpark price for the Modern Horizons 2 base copy (I expect this to drop quite a bit…probably to $35-$40). The version with the retro frame has a market price of $131.99 (though listings are already below that…this number will also drop). Then you have the extended art version, which is selling for around $90 for pre-orders. Lastly, there’s the retro frame, foil etched version, which currently has a market price of over $300!

This will lead to a scenario where the foil etched printing, being the rarest and most desirable, will maintain an elevated price point. Other special printings will also command a premium. The base printing…I expect that one to drop the most.

Reapplying this across the rest of the set, you can see where I’m going. If so many of the set’s value is locked up in these special print variants, it subsidizes the value of the base card printings of the set. The set’s EV can only go so high; if it exceeds some threshold (assuming no shortage of product), vendors will simply crack open more packs to create singles inventory to sell. The more they do this, the greater the supply of the normal printings, the lower their price goes.

High Dollar Reprints

The other thing about Modern Horizons 2 that seems to stand out to me is not just the presence of reprints, but the number of high-dollar reprints in the set. Here’s a list of some of the heavy hitters:

  • Misty Rainforest
  • Scalding Tarn
  • Verdant Catacombs
  • Marsh Flats
  • Arid Mesa
  • Cabal Coffers
  • Imperial Recruiter
  • Mirari's Wake
  • Patriarch's Bidding
  • Solitary Confinement

Each of the reprints above have base printings with market values currently north of $10; many of these have values over $20. The cycle of fetch lands, in particular, brings five high-value reprints into the set, at rare.

With this many desirable reprints, can all these cards maintain high price points? I understand this is a premium set and draft booster packs currently sell for about $8.75 on TCGplayer. But the set’s EV simply can’t remain so high, or else all these boosters will simply be cracked. This will flood the market with greater supply, and these reprints will all see their prices tank. I suspect Cabal Coffers will remain fairly high, being a highly desirable mythic rare reprint.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cabal Coffers

The fetches will also maintain strong demand, though I expect all their prices to drop by 30-40%. Imperial Recruiter, Mirari's Wake, Patriarch's Bidding, and Solitary Confinement will all get hit particularly hard. I predict their price to drop in half at the lows.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Patriarch's Bidding

One Last Aside

Tangentially related to my article this week, I just want to point out how confusing Magic sealed product shopping has become. When I started playing, you had just two choices for sealed product: a booster pack or a booster box. If it was a large set, you could also buy a tournament pack of 60 cards, or a box of tournament packs.

I searched for Modern Horizons 2 on TCGplayer to look up pricing of sealed product, and here were my options:

I believe a Draft Booster Box is like a standard booster box from days of yore. Collector boosters are fancy, high-dollar boosters. Then there’s set booster, which is in between I guess? Then there are displays and boxes, the bundle (aka ā€œfat packā€), and the good old draft booster case. The options are endless, and it is admittedly confusing to an older player like myself who isn’t used to all the print variations.

I’m not sure if all this SKU proliferation is healthy for Magic, but I guess they’re tailoring their product to their diverse player base. Some just want the cards to play, so they buy the standard draft boosters (also good for drafting obviously). Others want a shot at the higher value cards in the set, so they’re attracted more to the premium products. I understand this delineation, but it’s just a little overwhelming to me when I want to look up a product’s price.

/rant

Wrapping It Up

This article ended up being quite negative in tone. In reality, I’m very excited for Modern Horizons 2. While I don’t actively purchase new product these days, I may dabble in a booster pack or two (my birthday is coming up, after all!). A chance to open an enemy fetch land is enough to entice me, but some of the classic throwbacks like Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar are pretty sweet as well.

But my interest in the set ends there. From a financial standpoint, I believe nearly all the cards are currently pre-ordering for far too much. It’s fairly typical when a new set is spoiled—pre-order prices are high. After the set’s release, there’s a cool-off period as supply floods the market. Modern Horizons 2 will not be an exception to this rule.

I just feel like Modern Horizons 2 will suffer a pullback a bit larger in nature than your typical set. Prices seem very high, and there are so many cards pre-selling for over $20. Comparing this to the number of cards in the first Modern Horizons selling for over $20 (currently just nine), its obvious prices need to cool off a great deal. What’s more, with all the print variations available in the set, I believe the standard printings of cards will have their price subsidized by the more premium versions. This means prices will fall even further.

If you’re eager to pick up some of these cards, my advice would be to wait. Or, perhaps open up sealed product on day one, sell the overpriced singles as quickly as you can, and then buy back what you really want after a couple months.

Don’t forget, Wizards is constantly churning out new products. Modern Horizons 2 is receiving all the hype right now, but three months from now we’ll have other products to be excited about. Modern Horizons 2 will fall out of the limelight, and in doing so the prices will fall. That’s a wise time to start shopping.

And I definitely encourage shopping. There are a lot of great cards in this set. They will have value and they will appreciate slowly over time, after the initial sell-off. When the bottom is in, it’ll be a prime time to pick up the best, most iconic cards in the set for the long term. Despite my lack of interest in new Magic sets, rest assured I will be watching the market on these Modern Horizons 2 cards closely and will try to highlight the opportunities when they arise.

May ’21 Brew Report: I Sea Change

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Starms a-comin' in. You know, Modern Horizons 2? As usual, though, Modern players aren't content to just sit around and wait for the new cards. They're as busy as ever creating, tuning, and tweaking new creations! Today, we'll look at a couple of notable developments this month: the propagation of tech from UR Prowess and how different creature themes are helming new and exciting decks.

Ripple Effect
When decks start to perform in Modern, or enjoy continued success, it sometimes occurs that other decks—even established ones—become curious about the steaming hot tech next door. We've already seen BGx adopt Mishra's Bauble to some degree, but the following couple lifts surprised even me!

Burn, MCWINSAUCE (4-0, Preliminary #12295332)

Creatures

4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
3 Rift Bolt
2 Skewer the Critics

Instants

4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Lightning Helix
4 Searing Blaze
2 Skullcrack

Artifacts

3 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
1 Fiery Islet
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Sunbaked Canyon

Sideboard

2 Skullcrack
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
4 Path to Exile
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Roiling Vortex
2 Smash to Smithereens

UR Prowess is indeed very powerful this season, but good ol' Burn has been putting up results here and there, too; as players budget their life totals and deck constructions to just beat Prowess, they give up points against the original Lava Spike deck. This build features what is arguably the most free card in Prowess, Mishra's Bauble... even though it's got a full set of Eidolons to punish all players packing the 0-drop. What gives?

For starters, there is some precedent to running Bauble in Burn. The trend dates back to when Lurrus of the Dream-Den was unfixed, meaning companions could be cast directly from the sideboard without first being put into the hand. That build of Burn quickly established itself as a deck-to-beat and helped contribute to the rules change taking place. This Burn deck also runs Lurrus in the side, which explains the Baubles. But is it worth addingĀ  slow-trips to a deck that often kills opponent at exactly the right time just to extend the deck's mid-game potential against attrition decks?

Apparently, yes. Even with the extra cost demanded by companion, having a Lurrus plan to fall back on is alluring enough that plenty of Modern decks still run the 3/2. It certainly looks great against the UW and Esper Control decks running rampant to quell Prowess. And if MCWINSAUCE could turn the artifact into a 4-0 Preliminary stretch, there may be more to running the trinket in Burn than I had assumed.

Grixis Shadow, HODORTIMEBABY (3-1, Preliminary #12295332)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Gurmag Angler
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Street Wraith

Sorceries

3 Expressive Iteration
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize

Instants

2 Dismember
4 Fatal Push
4 Stubborn Denial
2 Temur Battle Rage
4 Thought Scour

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Island
4 Polluted Delta
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Steam Vents
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Kolaghan's Command
3 Kozilek's Return
1 Lightning Bolt
3 Soul-Guide Lantern

The next deck borrowing from UR Prowess is one that isn't so strategically divergent: Grixis Shadow. Shadow definitely trends more interactive than Prowess, but that interaction comes with ensured land drops, and land drops improve Expressive Iteration greatly. This two-mana cantrip has by and large replaced Light Up the Stage in UR Prowess decks, for a few reasons:

  • It hides the information, improving tricks like Mutagenic Growth or Spell Pierce
  • It works from behind, letting players claw their way back into the game
  • It doesn't require an attack, generating more prowess triggers or helping break a board stall
  • It digs a card deeper, increasing the odds of finding the right card

All these benefits seem to outweigh the fact that iteration comes with a hefty price compared to the twice-as-cheap Light Up. I had wondered about the card in Delver shells before concluding that it was just too much mana to pay there. But still, its effect is formidable in a spell-based aggro-control deck. Grixis Shadow seems like a natural fit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see most builds adopt this development going forward. Snapcaster Mage is slower and more conditional, making it a better card to draw into with Iteration than one to be naturally drawing into early on.

Dream Theme

Themed creature decks aren't just the stuff of casual players; many great Modern decks are built around a shared mechanic, such as Prowess, or winning tribe, like Humans. Then there are other mechanics and tribes which, while less powerful, have their fans and can succeed in the right context... or if given a little twist!

Tribal Landfall Zoo, MARTSJO (5-0)

Creatures

4 Akoum Hellhound
4 Steppe Lynx
4 Brushfire Elemental
4 Death's Shadow
4 Scourge of the Skyclaves
4 Street Wraith

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six

Sorceries

4 Tribal Flames

Instants

4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Might of Alara

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
1 Blood Crypt
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Forest
1 Godless Shrine
1 Marsh Flats
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
1 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Natural State
4 Path to Exile
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
1 Tormod's Crypt
4 Veil of Summer

Tribal Landfall Zoo blends two underperforming Modern decks, Tribal Zoo and Landfall Zoo, into a league-clearing concoction. I proposed Landfall Zoo way back when Akoum Hellhound was spoiled, but ended up disappointed; Hellhound found its place in Shadow Zoo, the grandaddy of this new deck, as a color-shifted Steppe Lynx, effectively replacing Lynx as R was easier to afford than W early in the game. But the deck didn't want 8 Lynxes, nor did any deck.

Until now, that is, when the landfall strat smashes head-on into Tribal Flames: a sorcery (with its pal Boros Charm in tow) that deals tons of damage for two mana. And getting out all the land types is easier than ever with Wrenn and Six in the mix. On a good day, Might of Alara might even act as a one-mana Tribal Flames!

Notably absent are Wild Nacatl, the de facto face of Zoo, and Monastery Swiftspear, the de facto face of aggro. Instead, meet the 12 landfall creatures, and the 8 Shadow creatures. (Oh, you've already met those guys? My mistake....)

Sorin Slivers, BLACKDOVE26 (3-1, Preliminary #12295332)

Creatures

4 Morophon, the Boundless
4 The First Sliver
2 Cloudshredder Sliver
1 Dregscape Sliver
1 Harmonic Sliver
1 Sliver Hivelord
2 Sliver Legion

Planeswalkers

4 Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord

Sorceries

2 Search for Glory
2 Shimmer of Possibility

Instants

4 Eladamri's Call
4 Remand
4 Summoner's Pact

Enchantments

2 Oath of Nissa

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Gemstone Caverns
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Mana Confluence
1 Murmuring Bosk
1 Reflecting Pool
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Cavern of Souls
3 Abrupt Decay
1 Containment Priest
3 Defense Grid
4 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Weather the Storm

I know I'm not the only one who began frantically searching Gatherer for Vampires when they spoiled Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord. Nor the only one crestfallen to discover that the best threat to cheat out was actually Morophon, the Boundless, which doesn't do much on its own. But man does it do much paired with a whole tribe.

With Sorin Slivers, BLACKDOVE26 takes the old tribe to new heights by pairing Slivers with the Sorin strategy, giving the deck a never-before-felt combo element. Sorin cheats out Morophon as early as turn three; from there, Slivers can cast The First Sliver for 0 mana and kick off a chain of cascades. Cloudshredder gives them all flying and haste, so the game ends pretty much right away. And Dregscape lets players do it from the graveyard.

More Where That Came From

Modern players never cease to disappoint when it comes to new brews. If you've seen something spicy, let me know in the comments! In the meantime, stay tuned for some brews of my own featuring some of those sweet new Horizons cards.

A Shift in the Markets

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I've been taking a look at a number of specs recently that I feel signal, if not display a turn in the tides. With the release of Modern Horizons 2 coming up soon, and in-store play's return imminently approaching, a new dawn is upon us. With the general trends of a market, it is often a matter of cash flow. If a lot of money is flowing into a certain area, it likely is being shorted away from another area; if all areas are succeeding, then they all can show more growth, albeit at the expense of another sector.

With the fall of Modern card prices at the beginning of the pandemic, and the rise of Reserved List and Commander cards to unheard-of highs, the market experienced a massive shift in focus. Modern is already experiencing a massive resurgence, whether predicted or realized, the money is already shifting away from Reserved List cards, and into Modern. Commander cards seem to be holding steady for the most part, likely capitalizing on the same advantages that Modern will have when in-store play is reinstated. Let's take a look at some of the movements and see if there are any good specs to keep an eye on while the market approaches an epoch.

Commander, a Self-Correcting Object

With changes in the world happening around us constantly, Commander is the one format that seems to have always stayed standing up. It gets tipped a bit, but it never falls completely, it simply corrects. Like the Gƶmbƶc, a self-correcting shape, that when tipped over, will always return to its point of stability, Commander, despite all the tips and turns, has found ways to survive, and thrive.

The Gƶmbƶc

There are a number of Commander cards that have experienced very decent price drops, while still maintaining stability long term, and holding well as of now. One of the cards I've been looking at is a very interesting case. Atraxa, Praetors' Voice has seen a very turbulent couple of years. I believe that Atraxa, Praetors' Voice shows us a great analogy for Commander as a whole, and can be used to demonstrate the events of the previous years.

Atraxa, Praetors' Voice

In order to further demonstrate the patterns we are seeing here, I have marked out some important points on this graph. You can probably tell from just looking at it, they are periods of changes, big, small, and almost unnoticeable, but important nonetheless.Ā  The first marker is an important period of market stagnation. No new information is being presented, and there is really no reason for this card to change much. You'll have the normal demand of players; no one really needs to sell these too quickly, and players aren't rushing to get them. This is important to note because it is the only period of time where a period of stagnant stability is present, as the rest of the last two years have not fit this classification. Point number 2 is a period of massive growth, this is simply player-driven, short-lived, and tells us something very important about that time.

The number of cards being sold was enough to satisfy the number of players buying them in point 1, however, when demand rose during spoiler season of War of the Spark, the demand was tipped ever so slightly, and the market could not keep up. Prices rose rapidly as sellers could not acquire enough inventory to catch up with new demand, and by the time supply was acquired, the period of horizontal decline began. Point 3 marks this period, all the way from the release of WAR until right after Theros: Beyond Death, when the market was slowly recurring to a correct valuation. The card was no longer needed as much as was perceived, and supply outweighed demand. Stores eager to generate liquidity and offload inventory lowered prices, encouraging hesitant players and sellers to "buy-in low".

Point 4 begins a period of consolidation. The majority of players currently seeking a brand new Atraxa, Praetors' Voice had already been sold, and the majority of these cards found their home for the time being, especially as lockdowns started across the country, more and more players turned to online play, and fewer players in store to trade in their cards. This diminishing supply shows its face in point number 5, as the lockdown had begun, and people started to realize that it was the long haul, players stocked up on cards needed to build their decks, looking for interesting, fun, and new decks to play through webcam Magic. The compound of a preceding consolidation allowed for the price to rise, in a stable fashion, before recurring to a further period of declining demand. This contrasts with point 2 in the mere reason for the increase. The ever speculative spoiler season does not make for sustainable prices and demand. A legitimate market force, now that's something that I can get behind most of the time. Finally, in points 6, 7, and 8, we can see a similar pattern to 3, 4, and 5.

This pattern is pretty consistent in a lot of cards, and some cards simply have consistent upward growth. Take Smothering Tithe for example. This card has seen nothing but upward momentum since its inception. This is likely just due to the overall strength of the card regardless of setting, and the rise of Commander in the mainstream has done nothing but help this momentum.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Smothering Tithe

High-End Reserved List

With a fairly predictable pattern of Commander cards, let's take a look at some of the spicier sauces offered in some of our nation's finest establishments. Reserved List. Specifically high-end EDH or CEDH staples on theĀ Reserved List. Common inclusions are the dual lands, Wheel of Fortune, Timetwister, Gaea's Cradle and Mox Diamond. These cards have seen a very consistent uptick over the past two years. I can say confidently that with the consistent interest, especially with the widespread growth of CEDH, more and more players are picking these up for the long haul. I expect to see a very major supply bottleneck in the near future, as the growth of CEDH has been an unstoppable beast, riding the wave of Commander's success, and these players will be a bit more hesitant to sell their prized decks, in comparison to the cheaper Commander cards you can trade-in without too much thought.

Once the supply starts to run dry, some will rush to cash out, but I have confidence that after a couple of waves of overjoyed cashouts, these will find their long term homes, and since these are already very low supply in comparison to some CEDH staples, and they also will never see more supply than what we have now, the prices will rise consistently, pressuring players to sell. I can also see long-term HODLers cashing out at a certain point, causing a price recursion and likely a repeat of this cycle. In the short term, we have seen a lowered interest despite massive success, and while this is nowhere near a bad thing, we will not see quite as much interest in these types of cards in the near future, as a portion of that interest shifts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wheel Of Fortune
There was an error retrieving a chart for Timetwister
There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle
There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

Modern Cards

Modern is a powerhouse. It's a great way to play. It has always been a strong market. Until the pandemic hit, and Modern prices fell drastically. Cards that used to go for upwards of $100, dropped to a mere fraction in weeks, and in a lot of scenarios, that hasn't quite healed yet. Some of these prices are starting to rise very quickly, while others are taking a bit more time. Let's take a look at a couple of cards.

Aether Vial

The first card I would like to talk about is Aether Vial. This is a great example of the pattern I am trying to highlight. It shows a steep devaluation at the start of the pandemic and moves very steeply up at the first sign of the pandemic ends. Makes great sense, as Modern did not see much online play during the pandemic, making Modern a largely in-person format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Vial

Fiery Islet

Fiery Islet saw very little time between its first printing and the pandemic. It really didn't have much of a chance to be played beforehand, and now that it is starting to get a chance, prices are rising. The valley of the mid-summer of 2020 has crested into the summer of 2021. This is honestly just a great card, and I can see a lot of room for positive growth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fiery Islet

Karn, the Great Creator, and Karn Liberated

Both Karns see play in Tron play equally important parts in the decks' win conditions and removal strategies. Seeing that both cards are very important parts of a popular Modern deck, it makes sense it would follow this path.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn, the Great Creator
There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Noble Hierarch

Noble Hierarch is an interesting permutation of this pattern.Ā  While it has not retraced upwards, it also has had a downward spiral for a bit before the pandemic, but now is seeing the same benefits, if only slightly. Will Noble Hierarch achieve the same success as its other counterparts? Maybe. I can see that it may be a possibility, as the meta-game that existed in its decline, has long since changed. It may also bypass the problem of large-scale viability in play by a simple matter of price memory. Even if people aren't playing it buy and large, people might still purchase at higher prices, simply because it seems cheap based on price memory. Time will tell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

Force of Negation

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force of Negation

It is very much comedic to me, that hundreds of speculators, investors, players, and collectors all the like, stated with such confidence that Force of Negation would not be reprinted in Modern Horizons 2, despite the clear lack of abundance of a reason for WotC not to. They have said more recently that MH2 is going to be pulling all the stops this time, and by golly there sure isn't much like a reprint of a staple that only has one previous printing.

Overall, it follows a similar pattern of diagonal growth, a little slower, however, and then has recently experienced slightly more of a downward tick after the reprinting was announced. I think that this reprint, while isn't going to be massively harmful to prices on certain high-demand cards like Force of Negation, I do believe that prices will lower substantially.

What's next?

With the next phase of most of our lives unraveling before us, the possibilities are endless. The speculator and the planner within me are eager and excited for a new phase of existence, and I cannot wait for the new opportunities and scenarios that will play out in this changing world. I am very bullish on Modern, as most should be right now, and I believe that the best day to get in, is yesterday, and the day before.

If you haven't taken advantage of these low prices, maybe take a look. Be skeptical about it, but really dig deep and try to find some good specs, cause with the changes that are coming, they will be somewhere. Have a great rest of your week, and I advise all of you to be smart, be responsible, be honest, and as the old adage goes, invest in cardboard.

Incoming Turbulence! Modern Horizons Spoilers Week 1

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Welcome to the start of Modern Horisons 2 spoiler season. The official start, anyway. The teasers we’ve already received don’t count. Because those were preseason teasers, not spoilers. There must be a difference other than semantics. I have no idea what beyond the timing is actually different, but there must be one to justify calling Monday the official start of MH2 spoilers. Rather than what we got two weeks ago. Or last Thursday. I’m starting to think Wizards just wants Magic news to be one, continuous spoiler season. Which would help explain this year’s release schedule, now that I’ve said it out loud.

In any case, Wizards does appear to be taking a more measured approach to MH2 compared to Modern Horizons. MH1 had a lot to prove as the first direct-to-and-designed-for-Modern set in Magic’s history. This may be why Wizards looked to push the flashier cards and more powerful cards on us. Which went well. Having learned their lesson (and with less player-skepticism to overcome) Wizards looks to have scaled things back and is focusing on answer cards. So far. But MH2’s Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis may be waiting until the last minute to appear, for all we know.

Rishadan Dockhand

Of course I was going to start with the Merfolk. The most important Merfolk printed since Master of the Pearl Trident, no less. I’m neither joking nor exaggerating. Rishadan Dockhand, a 1/2 for one with islandwalk, is better than any other one-drop Merfolk printed since Cursecatcher. I thought that might be the case when Kumena's Speaker was spoiled, but that proved incorrect. It happened again with Benthic Biomancer. The problem is not that Merfolk lacks one-drop beaters. It had all the lordly beef and mana-curve power to be an aggro deck. And that wasn't enough to keep up in Modern.

What was missing was something disruptive to upgrade or compliment Cursecatcher. Because just look at the gap between Cursecatcher and Mausoleum Wanderer. The key to aggro in Modern is to either be blisteringly fast (Ć  la Prowess), include a combo kill (Affinity, Company decks), or be highly disruptive (Spirits, Death and Taxes). Back when I was on the all-Merfolk, all-the-time plan, Cursecatcher was a solid creature and piece of disruption. Over the years, the creatures got better and the spells got cheaper and suddenly Cursecatcher just didn't do much anymore. To have a chance, Merfolk needed something interactive at one mana, not more beef. The lords had that locked down.

That has finally arrived in the form of Rishadan Port on legs fins. Wizards is continuing their practice of bringing Legacy cards to Modern as creatures instead of spells. And I am perfectly fine with that. Speaking as a player of Legacy Death and Taxes, Port is not for Modern. More on that shortly. Being a 1/2 looks weird and isn't particularly aggressive, but is perfect for a metagame defined by Lava Dart and sideboard Plague Engineers. Having islandwalk reduces the need for the lords to chip in the last few points of damage. I'm very excited to get back to my Aether Vial roots with Dockhand.

The Importance of Port

Those who've never played with the card may wonder why Rishadan Port is a big deal. Patrick Sullivan explained it best when he said that Port's power lies not in the fact that it trades 2 of your mana for 1 of your opponent's mana (a bad rate), but that it gives players the ability to do so at any time on a land that otherwise taps for colorless (a fantastic option to have throughout the game), giving this deceptively powerful effect a very low opportunity cost.

The entirety of my experience with Port is in Legacy, and it is extremely powerful as part of DnT's prison plan. Some of this is having Wasteland too, but Legacy is generally so land-light that Port is frequently devastating. So long as you're not behind on board. Then Porting lands just makes you lose more slowly. At best.

That out of the way, how does being on a creature affect Port's power and playability? On the one hand, the ability to keep opponents off mana is powerful in Modern too. By which I mean Porting Tron. Porting Tron lands is awesome, and will feel far better than Porting Cloudpost in Legacy because it will happen more often. Dockhand isn't a land, so it doesn't tie down your own mana as much as Port. Thus, Dockhand won't harm your own board development as much as Port. However, this comes at the price of being a creature and therefore far more vulnerable than a land. Relying on Dockhand to save you is asking for heartbreak.

Merfolk will be playing a full set of Dockhand because it is a Merfolk first and foremost. After that, there's the question of whether to just Port the opponent's lands or attack. I suspect the decision to be largely contextual, shifting turn-by-turn depending on matchup and game state, and made much easier by having Aether Vial in play. However, outside Merfolk, the appeal will be the Port effect, and I expect UW DnT to see a lot of play once MH2 is released. And yes, I'm already testing that deck... stay tuned!

Good Grief

Next up is something I never expected to see in Modern: manaless discard. Grief is a more powerful but less flexible Entomber Exarch if actually paid for. However, its evoke cost turns Grief into Unmask. Or as Unmask was intended to be used, anyway. These days, Unmask is mainly used by Reanimator and Dredge as an emergency discard outlet, with going after the opponent's hand frequently a secondary use. I've lost to a lot of opponents mulliganing to five, then turn 1 Unmasking themselves discarding Griselbrand only to immediately ReanimateGriselbrand. That can't happen with Grief, even in Legacy. As a compensating bonus, Grief can't be Force of Negationed and could also come with a menacing body.

Unmasking a Problem

Grief can only ever be used to disrupt opponents, not to advance one's own unfair gameplan. But critically, evoking Grief creates card disadvantage. Thoughtseize is a 1-1 trade whose value comes from trading up on card quality and mana value. An evoked Grief is -1 card (the exiled black card), then the discard is a 1-1 trade. It's harder to say if a 4-mana 3/2 menace is better than the discarded card. Free is much better than costing something, but that only actually matters if you then do something with the mana that's saved. And given the density of black spells that will be necessary to make Grief reliably free (using Force of Will math), the likely other turn-one play is a cantrip or a discard spell, which again just leaves the caster even on cards. By any measure, evoking Grief leaves its caster lower on resources than the target.

Which is why Unmask never saw much play. The reason that Reanimator and Dredge are the only decks that consistently play Unmask in Legacy is that they don't care about throwing away cards. All that matters is setting up their broken thing, and if that happens, they should win. Thus, it's worthwhile to 2-for-1 themselves to ensure their opponent can't disrupt them or to get the needed card into the graveyard. Fair decks have never made use of Unmask because they have to care about resources. Records are thin because Unmask is from before the internet was widespread, but I could only find three examples of Unmask in Standard or Extended. All three were running additional sources of card advantage to make up for Unmask's disadvantage. Two of them were looking to Dark Ritual huge threats into play on turn one and needed to guard against Force of Will.

Squeezing Out Value

Since Modern doesn't have really broken things for black decks to do through Force right now, I'm pretty skeptical of the value of evoking Grief, and subsequently its playability. However, that won't stop players from trying. I've already seen players losing their minds at the thought of responding to the evoke trigger with Undying Evil or Ephemerate. And it's true that successfully combining those cards with Grief makes up for the card disadvantage, since Grief would then remain on the battlefield, not to mention rip another card. And it's not hard to imagine that working out favorably.

Still, that strikes me as the best-case scenario, and constructing a deck to do so consistently makes me question how well it functions outside of that specific play pattern. The accepted hypergeometric probability to have a given card in the opening hand is just under 40%. The probability of having Grief and another specific card is 16%-42% depending on how you perform the calculation. And that's not including the need to find another black card. In other words, trying to make evoking Grief work in a deck that cares about resource economy is going to be a lot of work. Work that could have gone into building a more reliable engine.

Casting Grief is fine, but 3/2s for four mana don't see play even if they have evasion. By then, it's often too late in the Modern game for the discard to be relevant in anything other than control matchups (Thought-Knot Seer is so good because it generally costs a functional three mana). Tribal Elementals may use Grief in that capacity, especially since it does play acceleration and Cavern of Souls. I'd be very surprised to see Grief anywhere else.

A Wonderous Reprint

Immediately after Grief was spoiled, there was speculation that it was part of a cycle because it was an incarnation. That's a rare creature type and always shows up in cycles. Are we to see more evoke creatures? That is still possible, but the spoiling of Wonder has dampened those hopes. Not that I'm complaining; it's great to see an old friend again. I have very fond memories of winning my first FNM with UG Madness thanks to Wonder jumping my alpha strikes over Phantom Centaur and Nantuko Shade. However, I don't think there will be any of that today. There are no fair blue decks with discard synergies which would use Wonder for its intended purpose. Grixis Death's Shadow is the closest, but I don't think it needs Wonder nor can spare the space. Also, graveyard hate wasn't a thing back then.

Dredge is another candidate, but it doesn't normally run any Islands and I can't imagine that it wants to change up its manabase. Especially when it doesn't worry too much about being blocked in the first place. And also has Conflagrate to clear blockers out or win the game. Millvine on the other hand does already run Islands, dump its library, look to win via quick alpha strike. Wonder is a more natural fit there. It just makes me sad to see my old friend working for the enemy.

Fast Facts

There are a number of other interesting reprints too. However, there's not enough to say about them to warrant whole sections. So I'm going to wrap things up today with some quick-fire card reviews.

Cabal Coffers: AnotherĀ OdysseyĀ block reprint. It's much better now that Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and Dryad of the Ilysian Grove exist and let Coffers see play outside of mono-black decks. It's much,Ā much worse because the opportunity cost of playing lands that don't make mana themselves is so high in Modern.

Dakkon, Shadow Slayer: Dakkon is proof that Wizards actually can balance three mana planeswalkers. With turn-two ramp, Dakkon can ultimate is turn 5. Otherwise, it's turn 6 at earliest. And that ultimate is only good if it's been set up first. Thus, he's much better the later he's played, and so not really a turn-three play. Which leads me to ask why you need to use Dakkon to cheat in the artifact rather than just cast it? Or Refurbish it several turns earlier? Surveiling every turn is decent, especially as a way to set up graveyard synergies, and exiling creatures is very good. But is either enough for Dakkon to see play?

Flametongue Yearling: I don't know if Flametongue Kavu would see play in Modern today, but I'm betting Yearling won't. It's worse than Kavu at the same mana value, and decks that would potentially play Yearling don't need mana sinks. Especially ones that just kill creatures, and at a mediocre rate for anything above three toughness. Also important to note, Yearling kills itself if played on an empty board. A chip off the old block.

Prismatic Ending: This card will see a lot of play in UWx control because it kills Prowess creatures and Wrenn and Six on curve. I don't know if any deck other than control wants a sorcery-speed exile spell. Also, it has a hard ceiling of mana value 5, so it's not quite as unequivocal as Detention Sphere.

Back Into the Horizon

We've only had a bare glimpse of what MH2 has to offer, and while the early indications are good, don't let your guard down. I underestimated Astrolabe last time. But, that will have to wait. Next week is the May metagame update. See you then!

Of Chess and Magic

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If you follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed that I haven’t tweeted much recently. I mainly use the account for engagement with the Magic community, and I haven’t really played Magic for a few months. At one point I was jamming as many games on Arena as I could, striving to hit Mythic every month. Now my free time has centered around a different game: chess.

Personally, there are some components to chess that Magic lacks, which I really appreciate. First and foremost, there’s no ā€œluckā€ in chess. Outside the random chance of blundering a piece or having your opponent blunder a piece, the game starts the same way every time. Whether you win or lose depends solely on skill. I also appreciate chess’s ELO rating system (which incidentally, used to be reapplied for Magic ratings). When every game impacts your rating and global rank, it feels like every win counts. There are meaningful games that impact ranking on Arena too, but gold/diamond/etc. doesn’t carry the same weight as a precise number, in my opinion.

Obviously I can’t write about chess finance or ladder my interest in the hobby back to Magic finance. But I did come up with a clever idea for this week.

I’ve been watching this one Grand Master’s YouTube series, where he plays through games of chess and explains to the viewers his moves along the way. His name is Daniel Naroditsky, and if you’re interested in learning more about chess I highly recommend his YouTube channel. It’s been extremely helpful to watch. Now that I’ve watched over 70 of his videos, I’ve learned a few rules of thumb that he likes to repeat while he plays. I’m going to take some of those phrases and re-tool them to describe Magic finance strategies. The parallels won’t be perfect, so I ask readers for a little creative license here. With some luck, there will still be some useful tidbits.

Prepare Slow, Attack Fast

This phrase could describe some Magic decks. Combo decks come to mind—when I used to play Ad Nauseam in Legacy, I would spend the first couple turns to cast a few cantrips and disrupting my opponent’s hand. My opponent would always know when I was launching ā€œthe attackā€ because I’d get out a die to keep track of the storm count!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ad Nauseam

As it turns out, this is a reasonable strategy in chess as well. I have found that if I attempt to launch an attack prematurely, before developing my pieces optimally, a capable opponent is able to thwart my efforts. This leaves me licking my wounds (likely leading to a loss).

But how does this concept apply to Magic finance? When speculating on a card, especially a card with a long-term time horizon, sometimes it is wise to accumulate the card slowly and be prepared to sell quickly. If a new card is printed and is clearly a powerful Commander staple, it may be wise to acquire a bunch of copies. But new cards that only see play in Commander take a while to appreciate in price. If you rush out and buy a ton of copies day one, you may be overpaying. In these situations, I’d recommend gradually purchasing copies, allowing the price to come down a bit post-release and helping you cost average your investment.

Then when the time comes and the card spikes or reaches that inflection point, it’s wise to cash out fast. Reprints are everywhere these days, and you never know when your spec will get hit with fresh, new supply. That’s why I advocate cashing out quickly when the time is right!

A good example of this is Sliver Hivelord.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sliver Hivelord

If you had bought the Magic 2015 mythic rare upon release, you would have bought in too early. The card’s price hit a bottom a few months after the set’s release. Then the card’s price languished for a few years; this would have been the best time to gradually pick up copies. Then, once new slivers were revealed in a recent set, the card spiked to $40. But it didn’t hold that price point for long—this would have been the prime opportunity to cash out fast. Funny enough, the card recently spiked again to $40, but is already on a downward trajectory. So in this case, you had a couple chances to sell out before a major reprint. Sometimes, we don’t get a second chance!

Knights on the Rim are Grim

This is one of my favorite chess sayings. In the game, it refers to the fact that placing your knights on spaces near the edges of the board limits the number of spaces the piece has access to. Thus, they are ā€œgrimā€ in their prospects.

With a little creative license, I can relate this to Magic finance pretty easily. The rule of thumb would be that cards that are only played sparsely, especially in sideboards (i.e. the ā€œrimā€), have grim prospects for financial gains.

It is trivial to suggest that cards that see more play have more upside, all other things equal. While sideboard cards have their place in decks, the reality is such cards don’t offer the same upside potential as cards that see any significant play, especially as a 4-of, in the main deck. That’s not to say that sideboard cards can never be valuable—there have been numerous costly sideboard cards across the history of the game. Leyline of the Void and Leyline of Sanctity come to mind readily. And there was a moment when Rest in Peace was a $10 card.

But in general, sideboard cards don’t have as much upside potential as cards that are played in the main deck. A recent example is Modern sideboard card Plague Engineer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plague Engineer

Modern Horizons cards that dodge reprint are likely going to be hot as in-person Magic events resume. We’ve already seen some cards in the set climb. While Plague Engineer has its place in Modern sideboards, it really can’t be justified in the main deck as it would be a poor draw too much of the time. Stuck in the sideboard, the card’s price growth is relatively limited; I would much rather buy the cycle of dual lands in the set, or perhaps Altar of Dementia, a Commander staple, despite the multiple reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Altar Of Dementia

Not Every Piece Has to be an All-star

I’m paraphrasing this last chess concept because Daniel Naroditsky varies this one a bit. One of my favorite versions is, ā€œNot every piece has to be out there finding a cure for COVID.ā€ What he means is, while it’s nice to develop each piece on an optimal square, the reality is that you can’t do that perfectly in every game. Sometimes, you just need to accept the fact that a piece needs to be a bit more passive, at least temporarily.

I can translate this to Magic finance when I think about the diversification of my collection. While I would love all cards I purchase to be homerun specs that spike quickly and leave me with hefty profits, I have to recognize that this isn’t really feasible. There are times when we need to be okay with throwing some cards in a box for a couple years in the hopes that the spec pays off.

In both Magic and stocks, I am an advocate of diversification. It is wise not to over-expose yourself to a single card or format because you leave yourself vulnerable to reprints and shifts in the metagame. While it’s fun to buy dozens of copies of a new, flashy card, it’s also wise to find those slow-and-steady growers and sit on them for a couple years.

Of course, the exception here is the Reserved List. Cards on the Reserved List cannot be reprinted, and are from the game’s earliest days; both factors make for a wise investment, which is why Reserved List cards have overheated recently. But even still, I recommend diversifying—all the Reserved List cards feel overpriced currently, so if you want to put money to work, it probably needs to be something else. I cannot support buying some of these cards… I mean, $30 for Spiritual Sanctuary? Come on, now!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spiritual Sanctuary

It’s probably worth diversifying and picking up a smattering of newer cards. The triomes from Ikoria seem like good medium-term investments as long as they dodge reprint. The same can be said for the pathways from Zendikar Rising and Kaldheim, which will likely be mainstays in Standard and Pioneer. Or if you want a penny stock, I still have a stack of Genesis from Modern Horizons and Ruin Crabs from Zendikar Rising—I’m hoping to cash out of these at a buck apiece at some point in the future…distant future, perhaps. But my entry price was low enough that I don’t mind the wait.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruin Crab

Wrapping It Up

Daniel Naroditsky has taught me a great deal about chess strategy and in an entertaining way. He has a bunch of other phrases that I could have worked with.

ā€œYou can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggsā€ is one I particularly like. Then there’s his description of ā€œpotential energyā€ versus ā€œkinetic energyā€ when it comes to positioning pieces. I never thought learning about chess could be so fun—I know that sounds cheesy, but it’s really helped keep my interest.

Despite my virtual abandonment of Magic play for chess in recent days, I still practice Magic finance as fervently as ever. The market is very exciting right now as prices fluctuate, inflation rises, and Reserved List cards hit retreat from all-time highs. I think that even if I lose interest in the game of Magic, I’ll never lose interest in the collectability and investability of the cards.

For this reason, I decided to have some fun this week and convert some recent chess tidbits into Magic finance tips. I hope readers enjoyed the exercise as much as I did. In fact, if you did or did not appreciate this foray into a different game, please mention something in the comments below or on Twitter (@sigfig8). If I get positive feedback, I may do this again. Either way, I have a feeling I’ll be eschewing Arena for chess for the foreseeable future.

Insider: Beledros Speculation Opportunities

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We have seen multiple cards that play well with Strixhaven's "pest" creature type spike in the past few weeks. The two biggest are:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Savra, Queen of the Golgari
There was an error retrieving a chart for Creakwood Liege

The most likely reason is Beledros Witherbloom decks as typically when an archetype sees multiple spikes it is due to a new card entering a format. When we look for cards that would seem likely to be auto includes in this deck it is important to remember that Beledros creates tokens and acts as a mana doubler at the cost of life. So if you assume you always have access to those two options, then we need to look at what is "missing" for the deck to powerfully function. The pests created by Beledros provide minor life gain and optional sacrificial creatures for any sort of engine. To me, the biggest missing piece of the puzzle is card draw of some sort.

When a new card or mechanic gets spoiled we will often see the other half of the combo or the best card that plays with said mechanic spike in price; for example, Chain of Smog when the magecraft mechanic was spoiled.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chain of Smog

However, thanks to the singular nature of Commander and its massive card pool, we typically get a bit more time to find our opportunities as the hivemind gets to work on various builds and an optimal list takes shape. This doesn't mean that we have months and months to decide what to pick up, but it does mean that if you don't buy immediately you will be priced out just as fast.

Today, we'll look at a few speculation targets that either haven't moved or still remain under $2, as I believe a low buy-in is crucial to maximizing your profits with regards to speculation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Evolutionary Leap

Evolutionary Leap is a card I actually brought up in the discord chat over a week ago as a potentially good buy. Golgari builds tend to have plenty of options when it comes to sacrificing creatures for value, however, neither color tends to have a lot of card advantage, so Evolutionary Leap provides a cheap sacrifice outlet to convert a token into a creature from your library. Given Beledros' ability to untap all your lands having a card that gives you something to do with that mana seems ideal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Izoni, Thousand-Eyed

Golgari decks often run some form of graveyard recursion, so creatures with good ETBs gain extra value. Izoni can act as a repeatable mass token generator in this type of deck and is currently sitting at bulk rare status. Normally, I prefer to avoid newer cards as speculation targets due to the sheer number of copies in circulation, but this one seems pretty low-risk given the low buy-in. Izoni also provides card draw, a sacrifice outlet, and life gain which are all things every Beledros deck will want.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Species Specialist

While a bit more niche than our other two options, it seems WotC has been careful about including "non-token" when creating cards that allow you to draw a card when a creature dies. Species Specialist will allow repeated card draw when one type of creature dies, so if you name pest you can generate card advantage when Beledross is in play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Prophecy

This is definitely an auto-include in Beledros decks as it does trigger off tokens dying and the life loss is counteracted with the life gain from the pests themselves. It is important to note that this card's price has already moved up to be on average above my initial $2 threshold but you may be able to find copies under $2. This is the card on my list that I believe has the most potential. It was printed once, 7 years ago, in a rather unimpressive core set, and being an enchantment it tends to be harder for opponents to deal with.

Conclusion

Beledros Witherbloom appears to be one of the breakout commanders in a set full of legendary creatures. It has caused multiple cards to rise in value and there is likely room for that list to grow both in value and in the number of cards included. There are numerous other cards I expect to move upward as more players build this deck, but, the four I listed are the ones that likely have the most opportunity for growth due to their overall usefulness and low buy-in.

Spell Spotlight: Prismari Command

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When it was first spoiled, Prismari Command wasn't particularly exciting to Modern players. But this month, we're seeing the card on a noticeable uptick, with players registering two to even the full four copies in archetypes as strategically diverse as value, combo, and control. Clearly there's something to this three-mana instant! Today, we'll take a look at the various roles Prismari Command can play for different decks, how it compares to sister spell Kolaghan's Command, and some of the lists that are taking advantage of the Strixhaven newcomer.

Digging In

To get started, we'll dissect what Prismari Command does, exactly, and why the comparisons to Kolaghan's Command may tell a deceptive story when it comes to the card's power level.

Parsing the Modes

Prismari Command has four modes, of which casters may choose two:

  • Prismari Command deals 2 damage to any target.
  • Target player draws two cards, then discards two cards.
  • Target player creates a Treasure token.
  • Destroy target artifact.

The first and last modes, also native to Kolaghan's Command, are no strangers to three-cost instants (more on the two Commands below). But the other two are newer.

Creating a Treasure token appears on paper like the spell's weakest mode. But in jamming Magic: Arena of late, I've come to better appreciate the secret power of Treasure tokens, and I don't just mean alongside Urza, Lord High Artificer. Assuming you're planning on casting a spell next turn or this turn, Treasure essentially makes that spell cost one less mana, which often adds up to the initial, Treasure-generating spell costing one less mana. That means that in a pinch, pilots can be paying a functional two mana for any one of Prismari Command's modes, which gives the modal spell an interesting cost-reduction dimension and a heck of a lot of versatility.

Plus, making a Treasure is actually better than just "sometimes costing one less." It's ramp. Simian Spirit Guide was just banned in ModernĀ thanks to the ease at which it let players slam haymakers or combo components a turn early. Seeing as how many of those spells cost five mana (Through the Breach, Ad Nauseam, etc.), Prismari Command can potentially fill the gap, interacting or digging on turn three while "locking in" a Simian Guide for the next turn. And since it's so much more versatile than Simian Guide, we're going to start seeing that pseudo-Guide effect in a lot more decks than had it before going forward.

Then there's the ol' draw two, discard two. This mode evokes yet another banned card: Faithless Looting. You heard it here first, folks: Prismari Command is two banned cards in one! Well, not really. Looting costing a single mana is a huge part of its success; after all, Izzet Charm also features this mode and sees virtually no Modern play.

Kolaghan's Card Advantage

It's not nuts to compare Prismari Command to Kolaghan's Command, even if thanks to their respective colors, the spells were fated to end up in different decks regardless of their text boxes. One key reason: they're nonetheless costed similarly, at 1RC. Another: half of their text boxes are identical.

Among Kolaghan Command's most backbreaking mode pairings is 2 damage and destroy an artifact, a play that often dismantles enemy board states, and at instant speed to boot. Prismari Command shares these two modes, making the same potential blowout possible in URx and giving blue mages a far more flexible option than Abrade when it comes to dealing with artifacts with main-deckable cards. Still, it's worth nothing that Kolaghan Command's other two modes are chosen quite frequently, and that's where Prismari might leave something to be desired.

Target opponent discards a card causes the opponent to minus one, generating a net gain of one in card advantage: Kolaghan's caster spent one card to remove a permanent on the board, and the opponent lost an additional card for good measure. The other mode, return target creature from your graveyard to your hand, also puts the caster up a card. In other words, every mode pairing on Kolaghan's Command generates card advantage.

Not true of Prismari Command; only the mode pairing it shares with Kolaghan's Command will actually plus one indiscriminately, and that's also the most conditional of Kolaghan's card advantage parings, as it requires the opponent to have very specific permanents in play. Prismari's other commands of create a Treasure and draw two, discard two are a wash in terms of card economy, although the former generates an interesting ramp dimension and the latter provides card selection. Prismari Command is simply not a card advantage spell, and comparing it to Kolaghan's Command—one of the format's premier card advantage spells—therefore runs the risk of selling the newer Command short. To Prismari's credit, card advantage is not a premier in-game element in Modern relative to in other non-rotating formats. The same can't be said of tempo and card selection, both of which hold multiple cards hostage on the banlist.

tl;dr: Prismari Command is indeed worse than Kolaghan's Command in terms of card advantage. Most Modern decks care more about other in-game dimensions more than they care about card advantage.

Hold On, We're Comboing Home

If we're not making card advantage, what exactly are we doing with Prismari Command? Proactively, ramping, digging, and dumping; defensively, killing artifacts and creatures. In other words, five things beloved by big-spell combo decks, which seem like the most obvious home for the instant. Take these decks, for instance:

Temur Breach, BALLTAP (8th, Champs #12293241)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six

Instants

4 Archmage's Charm
2 Cryptic Command
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Opt
4 Prismari Command
4 Remand
4 Through the Breach

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Castle Vantress
3 Flooded Strand
4 Island
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

1 Abrade
4 Aether Gust
2 Force of Negation
1 Magmatic Sinkhole
1 Mystical Dispute
3 Veil of Summer
3 Weather the Storm

Breach decks have long been combo-control piles wielding tempo cards to modify the game's pace en route to victory, as Splinter Twin once did. Temur Breach is no different, leaning heavily on Wrenn and Six to support Snapcaster Mage in a grind game. The loot from Prismari not only dumps excess combo pieces like spare Emrakuls, but loots through the wrong half of the deck, letting it assemble its combo or amass value depending on the matchup. And of course, a turn three Prismari threatens a turn four Breach, giving the deck that ever-feared dimension from Twin. Opponents aren't even safe with something like Meddling Mage in play, since Command can shoot that as it ramps up to five.

Idomitable Breach, SPIDERSPACE (15th, Challenge #12293271)

Creatures

4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

Planeswalkers

3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Sorceries

4 Indomitable Creativity

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
4 Prismari Command
4 Remand
4 Through the Breach
2 Valakut Awakening

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Dwarven Mine
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Raugrin Triome
2 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
1 Anger of the Gods
3 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Dispel
4 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Rest in Peace

It so has it that Prismari Command is efficient enough that the Breach decks don't need to divert their gameplan in hopes of prolonging the game. This UR Breach deck doubles up on payoffs with Indomitable Creativity and splashes Teferi, Time Raveler as additional combo protection. From there, the gameplan is simple: ramp into a big spell and land that Emrakul.

Niv-Mizzet Omnath, FLSHT0PH (21st, Challenge #12293271)

Creatures

4 Omnath, Locus of Creation
2 Birds of Paradise
3 Niv-Mizzet Reborn
1 Valki, God of Lies

Planeswalkers

1 Nahiri, the Harbinger
4 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Abundant Growth
4 Utopia Sprawl

Sorceries

4 Bring to Light
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Unmoored Ego

Instants

1 Abrupt Decay
2 Assassin's Trophy
4 Kaya's Guile
3 Lightning Helix
4 Prismari Command
1 Vanishing Verse

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Godless Shrine
1 Indatha Triome
1 Ketria Triome
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Overgrown Tomb
3 Pillar of the Paruns
4 Prismatic Vista
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
2 Verdant Catacombs
3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Crumble to Dust
1 Deicide
3 Fatal Push
1 Shadows' Verdict
4 Thoughtseize
4 Veil of Summer
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

Niv-Mizzet isn't so much a combo deck as a value deck; its game-winning play is to draw a bunch of powerful gold cards. That does mean the deck can choke on the wrong spells at the wrong time, and it can use all the help it can get at assembling five mana for Bring to Light, Niv-Mizzet, or even Omnath-plus-fetchland. Enter Prismari Command, looter and ramper extraordinaire that also does Kolaghan's Command things, making it both a prime enabler and a worthy payoff to flip off Niv-Mizzet. I'll take 4, thanks!

Summing Up

Prismari Command may not be Kolaghan's Command in terms of card advantage, but its modes are flexible and versatile enough to make it a Modern staple we'll be seeing years down the road, just like the OG Shock-Shatter. As illustrated, the modes on Prismari are far better in the right deck than returning a creature or making opponents discard, both of which are mostly best suited for... well, Jund. We're so used to being on the receiving end of great Kolaghan's that Prismari can seem underwhelming at first, but based on its very stellar month in Modern, I'd wager that's about to change!

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