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July ’20 Brew Report, Pt. 1: Claws & Fins

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Well, I've dutifully done my snooping, and am proud to present some of Modern's new directions in a Snow-less world! Chomping at the bit for more? Ready the sails... if you dare!

Nuthin' But a "G" Thang

"One, two, three and to the four / Boggart Harbinger and Conspicuous Snoop is at the door." In fact, this dynamic duo has long gotten past the door, and they ain't leavin' til six in the morning. If July 2020 is remembered for one thing, let it be Snoop Gobbs's impressive debut.

Snoop Gobbs, KARATEDOM (3-2, Modern Preliminary #12176966)

Creatures

4 Boggart Harbinger
4 Conspicuous Snoop
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Goblin Warchief
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Munitions Expert
1 Pashalik Mons
2 Skirk Prospector
2 Sling-Gang Lieutenant

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

1 Tarfire

Lands

4 Auntie's Hovel
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Cavern of Souls
1 Fiery Islet
2 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Unclaimed Territory

Sideboard

1 Tarfire
2 Blood Moon
1 Goblin Chainwhirler
1 Goblin Cratermaker
1 Goblin Trashmaster
3 Leyline of the Void
3 Plague Engineer
3 Thoughtseize

The above build of Snoop Gobbs has been tearing it up online this month, to the extent that I considered omitting it from the "Brew" report at all. But the development nonetheless represents the first foot forward in tuning and refining a brand-new archetype. Besides the above Preliminary list, the first July build I came across, I found similar builds in four other Preliminaries (including one that went 5-0), three Challenges (with one making Top 8), and four regular ol' leagues—in other words, almost every data set I worked with.

The deck and its ilk are built similarly to David's experiment with Snoop early in spoiler season, with the combo shoehorned into an otherwise unremarkable Vial Goblins strategy. Apparently, boasting access to the combo plan plugs gaping holes previously unfixable for Goblins, an archetype we haven't ever seen experience this level of success in Modern.

There are, of course, slight variations between the above lists, mostly coming down to amounts of interaction (some decks run multiple Tarfire, others main Fatal Push, and others still forego noncreature removal entirely) and whether or not Goblin Ringleader is played. Ringleader cemented itself as a Goblins staple as soon as it came to Modern, but it's worth noting that these Snoop-less versions of Goblins still struggled to find footing. As a card that primarily helps overwhelm interactive opponents, it makes sense that Ringleader might under-perform in certain matchups, and therefore predicted metagames.

I also spotted some Goblins decks that diverged from the core more significantly.

Putrid Gobbs, MASTERA (23rd, Modern Challenge #12176992)

Creatures

4 Putrid Goblin
4 Boggart Harbinger
4 Conspicuous Snoop
4 Goblin Matron
1 Grumgully, the Generous
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
4 Metallic Mimic
2 Munitions Expert
1 Murderous Redcap
3 Skirk Prospector
3 Sling-Gang Lieutenant

Artifacts

3 Aether Vial

Sorceries

2 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Auntie's Hovel
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Cavern of Souls
2 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Verdant Catacombs

Sideboard

2 Blood Moon
2 Boil
1 Goblin Trashmaster
4 Plague Engineer
4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Tarfire

This version of Putrid Gobbs maxes out on Skirk Prospector, usually a two-of, to make use of its mana-making synergy with Putrid Goblin. Mogg War Marshall already provides multiple mana with Prospector, but Putrid takes things a step further with Metallic Mimic in the picture, which lets Goblins go infinite and chain together all the Ringleaders, Matrons, or Kiki-Jiki clones it wants. Sling-Gang Lieutenant pays off the digging by providing a damage-dealing sac outlet that kills opponents on the spot.

While adding a second combo to an already shaky tribal aggro core might seem precarious, it helps that none of these pieces play that poorly with the strategy at hand. Mimic is really just another lord, and Putrid's built-in card advantage can help against the types of decks Goblins naturally struggles against: those loaded with cheap removal spells.

Snoop Unearth, B4NN3D22 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
4 Goblin Matron
4 Boggart Harbinger
4 Conspicuous Snoop
1 Goblin Cratermaker
1 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
2 Sling-Gang Lieutenant

Instants

2 Tarfire

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
4 Unearth
1 Warren Weirding

Lands

4 Auntie's Hovel
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Fiery Islet
2 Mountain
2 Polluted Delta
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Tarfire
1 Warren Weirding
2 Collective Brutality
3 Damping Sphere
4 Fatal Push
4 Nihil Spellbomb

Snoop Unearth switches things up even more drastically, focusing single-mindedly on the combo and employing Dark Confidant both to dig for pieces and overwhelm opponents light on interaction. Should the other side happen to have Bolt or Push for the 2/1, a whopping four copies of Unearth form this deck's backbone, reanimating the draw engine or literally any of its combo pieces throughout the game. Inquisition of Kozilek and Thoughtseize each join Unearth at 4 to prevent opponents from messing with the deck's plans.

This deck, too, has established pedigree this month, earning another 5-0 and netting one player Top 16 in a Challenge. Whether these results speak to the viability of Snoop Unearth as a build or just to the Snoop combo's own merits in Modern remains to be seen.

Swimming with the Sharks

The Goblin tribe may have enjoyed an explosive month, but Goblins have been in Magic parlance since the game's inception. Another, more slept-on creature type also had its day in July, rising out of obscurity to sink its hundreds of teeth into Modern.

Dimir Sharks, MECHINT (5-0)

Enchantments

4 Shark Typhoon

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

3 Archmage's Charm
2 Cling to Dust
3 Cryptic Command
3 Drown in the Loch
4 Fatal Push
2 Force of Negation
4 Frantic Inventory
1 Logic Knot
1 Shadow of Doubt
2 Spell Snare
4 Thought Scour

Lands

1 Field of Ruin
6 Island
1 Misty Rainforest
3 Mystic Sanctuary
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Sunken Hollow
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

4 Aether Gust
2 Flusterstorm
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Narset, Parter of Veils
3 Plague Engineer
3 Yixlid Jailer

Behold Dimir Sharks, a fins-to-the-shins control deck that wins by cycling, and perhaps even casting, Shark Typhoon. As cycling can't be countered and is available at instant speed, it's an attractive option for control decks if the right card presents itself—and on a finisher, players can simply cycle the card early in a pinch, confident they'll find more copies down the road. Decree of Justice once saw play in control decks for exactly this reason, although Decree also had the benefit of triggering Astral Slide. No such synergy here, although Typhoon is significantly easier to cycle.

Among the decks sleeving up Shark Typhoon are Sultai Snow (RIP) and UW Control, but I did find one other pile maxing out on the thing.

Izzet Sharks, ASPIRINGSPIKE (17th, Modern Challenge #12176998)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

2 Narset, Parter of Veils

Enchantments

4 Shark Typhoon

Instants

1 Abrade
3 Archmage's Charm
3 Cryptic Command
3 Force of Negation
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Mana Leak
4 Opt
2 Remand
1 Shadow of Doubt
2 Spell Snare

Sorceries

1 Flame Slash

Lands

4 Cascade Bluffs
2 Fiery Islet
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
2 Mountain
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
4 Reflecting Pool
1 River of Tears
4 Spirebluff Canal
4 Temple of Epiphany

Sideboard

4 Aether Gust
3 Boil
2 Flusterstorm
3 Izzet Staticaster
3 Relic of Progenitus

Behold, Izzet Sharks! ASPIRINGSPIKE is no stranger to the Brew Report column, so of course dude had to deliver a twist to the tornado. In fact, he's already on to the next whirlwind, having trophied with an abomination dubbed "UW Sharkblade."

Just When You Thought It Was Safe...

With Arcum's Astrolabe banned, Modern's waters are indeed a-churning. Join me next week for an exposé on July's non-Goblins breakout deck.

Budget-Focused: Four Cards to Pick up for Pioneer!

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Welcome back everyone to another week and another article! Today is our third installment going over some lower cmc cards to utilize in Pioneer, or ones that have long-term potential. Last week we went over three cards that look solid for the format.

Blossoming Defense with room to blossom

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blossoming Defense

The first one we are going to discuss is a budget staple and has room to grow in the non-foil print. The card we are talking about is Blossoming Defense. This is literally the “nope” to any target creature spell. There is no better satisfaction than to nullify a three drop by tapping for one! The other thing to note here is that the creature we target gets a 2/2 buff. There are a couple cards from Core Set 2021 that can benefit heavily from this, but we will touch on that in a later article! The instant aspect here is what makes this so versatile, as we can use it defensively or offensively.

The current price tag on this is $0.24 for the non-foils and $3.05 for the foils. One thing to note is as of now there are no other printings of this, and for speculating that is fantastic! Secondly, the non-foil over time has more than enough leverage to pull over the $1.00 range if the foil stays at its current price. If the foil continues to grow, then this helps raise the ceiling on the non-foil copies like Fatal Push. One could argue that Fatal Push is going for $3.75 for non-foils, and it is used in other formats. How can we then say this could grow potentially to that point? The answer is one that was touched on in a previous article, total printings.

Right now, Fatal Push has a total of four different printings, one being an FNM promo. With Blossoming Defense only having two available, it has less in total circulation. If this trend stays the course Blossoming Defense has an edge.

Get more dominant with Display of Dominance and Quickling

There was an error retrieving a chart for Display of Dominance
There was an error retrieving a chart for Quickling

Staying on course with green “nope” spells we must discuss Display of Dominance. This is a solid two drop with options with removal or protection. At first glance it being narrow with “target non-creature permanent” seems unappealing. Keep an open mind on this as there are plenty of non-creature threats in black and blue builds. This is just the secondary use, so keep that in mind. What we primarily want to do is use the ability to give our permanents hexproof from blue and black spells. Like Blossoming Defense, nothing will aggravate a control player more than you not allowing them to remove your plays. Let them go ahead and play that removal spell, you tap for two, and “nope” them in response.

Display of Dominance’s price is currently at $0.25 for the non-foils and $1.29 for the foil copies. This card did in fact pop back in January, but the current price is a bargain! There are four color combinations that are in the competitive meta where this can be a factor. Mono Black aggro, Spirit aggro, Mono Green, and Gruul aggro. Mono Green and Gruul is where we can at the minimum sideboard this in for defense. Mono Black aggro and Spirits aggro will have target spells that we can negate using this. Outside of Spirits and Mono Black, there are other control decks that could be a threat to Gruul and Mono Green. This is one to pick up while the price is low!

Quickling is our next card that is flying (literally and figuratively) under the radar. The current price is at $0.33 for non-foils and $2.37 for the foils. Both versions have room to grow, but the non-foil is where our upside lies. This can be used as a complementary piece to decks that not only utilize flyers but anything looking for sneaky defensive ways to counter target creature spells. The power and toughness being 2/2 is rather intriguing for it the text this one holds it would be a 1/1 given the mana cost and rarity. Long term, this could see the $1.00-$2.00 range for the non-foil copies without a reprint. Be sure to snag up some playsets of both copies of this awesome card!

Frontline Medic - an unsung hero to Aggro

The last card we are going to discuss today in not a two or one-drop but deserves to be mentioned for the format. Frontline Medic is a great three-drop that can be used in a slew of white builds for defensive measures. Just in aggro alone this can be used in White Weenies, Boros Aggro, Spirit Aggro, Sram Aggro, and Abzan Aggro. Those decks as of right now make up 19% of the competitive meta, and a card like this potentially bolsters them up more! Giving your creatures indestructible when attacking can drive players crazy if they have no response. Not to mention the fact it can counter a spell if the play is available! Some critics feel that this is a card that is not worth the play given its cmc. However, in the right build like those stated above it can be a threat.

The current price for Frontline Medic is $0.50 for the non-foils and $1.27 for the foil copies. There is a Commander 2020 reprint that is coming out with a price of $0.39. The reprint hurts the value slightly for the non-foil, but the foil will hold plenty of upside. Here is a build that could benefit from Frontline Medics ability mid-late game.

Devotion to White by E_Kaminuma

Creatures

2 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
3 Arcanist's Owl
2 Daxos, Blessed by the Sun
4 Heliod, Sun-Crowned
3 Knight of the White Orchid
4 Thraben Inspector
2 Tomik, Distinguished Advokist
3 Walking Ballista

Other Spells

2 Baffling End
2 Elspeth Conquers Death
4 Karn, the Great Creator
3 Stasis Snare

Lands

2 Castle Ardenvale
3 Idyllic Grange
3 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
18 Plains

Sideboard

2 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
1 Baffling End
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Damping Sphere
3 Gideon's Intervention
1 Glass Casket
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Pithing Needle
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1 The Immortal Sun
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Walking Ballista

In closing, all the cards stated above have plenty of usability in the future of Pioneer. The meta is ever-changing as everyone tries to figure it out. New threats will immerge, and new answers will be found. These cards have a great chance of having a role in some way shape or form. Even if some only go up a buck or two that is still a win, especially if you buy/trade for a high quantity. Thank you for checking this out, and be sure to stop back for the next installment!

Late Summer Thaw: Arcum’s Astrolabe Banned

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But for copyright concerns, I would have led off this article with the lyrics to "Another One Bites the Dust." I hope perfectly reasonable intellectual property law is happy with itself. There's been another B&R Announcement. This time something actually is banned in Modern. So that's nice. Even if it does moot a number of articles that I was planning. Fortunately, some of that work is relevant to the bannings, as we'll soon see.

While Modern is seeing a significant banning, the bigger story is what didn't happen: absolutely everyone was expecting a big change for Pioneer. Various combo decks are dominating the format, and players are bored. For evidence, I had been tracking match firing rates in the Tournament Practice Rooms on MTGO. Modern fired a minimum 3x more often than Pioneer, usually 5x or more. Thus, Pioneer players hoped for a big ban to open up the field. That didn't happen. Instead, Wizards unbanned Oath of Nissa to revive the green devotion decks. I've always been ambivalent towards Pioneer: On the one hand, I had a lot of Pioneer decks laying around by happenstance; on the other, I think a format of Wizards' Greatest Standard Mistakes is doomed to either collapse or be turned into Modern-lite.

However, this unban makes me care again. Not to play Pioneer, but to watch it as a researcher. There's been an argument that instead of banning cards, Wizards should prioritize unbanning cards to fix problems. Unbanning Deathrite Shaman to fix Hogaak stands out. Now, there's an opportunity to see in practice whether the argument works in theory. Or if the unban crowd should shut up.

The Banning

Arcum's Astrolabe is banned. It's exactly what I thought would happen when the announcement came out. A few hours after my article, which was discussing something relevant to the decision, went up. Just like with the companion rules change. I'm starting to think they're doing it deliberately.

Astrolabe was the logical target for a ban, having found its way into a lot of decks and being the object of many player's hatred. But I was surprised that Wizards felt the need to ban anything in Modern. My data indicated that the metagame was overall healthy. Furthermore, Snow decks in general, and Bant Snow specifically, had been hammered in the standings. It looked to me that Modern was self-correcting. Once over the surprise that Wizards felt differently, I immediately went to Astrolabe, and never felt that anything else was probable.

The Decision

However, Wizards has the totality of the data available, while I only have access to the Challenge and Preliminary results. Thus, they saw something that I couldn't, specifically win rates:

...we have seen a rise in popularity and win rate of multicolor decks using Arcum's Astrolabe, with some variants approaching 55% non-mirror match win rate.

Once again, we see 55% across the board win-rate as the critical threshold. However, it's important again to note that Snow variants weren't actually at the threshold, but merely approaching it. Given their mediocre performance in the Challenges and Preliminaries, I'm very surprised that Snow was anywhere close to that level. Snow must have really been tearing it up in the Leagues for that statistic to be true. However, that wasn't the only consideration. Wizards' primary ones were non-statistic factors and premonitions of looming problems:

While there’s nothing intrinsically bad about multicolor “good stuff” decks having a place in the metagame, their power and flexibility is usually counterbalanced by making concessions in their mana bases...

Arcum's Astrolabe makes this tradeoff come at too low of a cost...

Arcum's Astrolabe leads to other synergy by virtue of being a cheap artifact permanent, and it can be blinked or recurred for card advantage. In short, Arcum's Astrolabe adds too much to these decks for too little cost, resulting in win rates that are unhealthy and unsustainable for the metagame.

Ultimately, it wasn't Snow's win percentage that did Astrolabe in, but the environment it created. It was too efficient, had too low of an opportunity cost, and had too big an impact to be healthy. As far as Wizards was concerned, Snow was trending strongly enough towards needing a ban eventually. With players unhappy and a ban decision coming, Wizards chose to nip Snow in the bud.

My Reaction

This is a weird banning. I don't disagree that Astrolabe is too good. Mana should be a sticking point for good stuff decks, and Astrolabe facilitated some otherwise suspect manabases being highly successful. That said, it's extremely rare for a card to be pre-emptively banned. The initial list doesn't count. Mycosynth Lattice leaps to mind as the only other example. It was very un-fun, but wasn't really having an impact when it got axed. Once Upon a Time had reached fairly ridiculous saturation levels when it was axed. Faithless Looting was a known offender, as Wizards argued Mox Opal was.

With some luck, this signals that Wizards is finally willing to head off developing problems rather than wait until they've got no remaining choice. If this is the case, we may never have to suffer through a Hogaak Summer or Eldrazi Winter again. Of course, this could be entirely down to Magic play being down across the board with paper on hold and Wizards needing to reinject life into formats. I'd prefer Wizards more active than passive, but we need to wait and see if this is actually a policy change or purely circumstantial.

What it Means

I'd actually been testing Bant Snow without Astrolabe prior to the announcement. Not because I suspected a banning, but because I was trying to quantify its impact on various matchups. I took a stock Bant Snow control list, subbed out Astrolabe for Serum Visions, and started testing against various gauntlet decks to see how Astrolabe affected the matchups. I'd only done Ponza and Humans when the announcement came down, so I'll only speak to those matchups.

Losing Astrolabe will not significantly impact Snow's matchup against Ponza. As mentioned, Ponza has a good matchup against Bant Snow because of its impressive threats combined with Blood Moon effects. A turn 2 Moon is killer with or without Astrolabe. Reason being: number of fetches mattered more than what was being fetched. Regardless of whether Snow sees Astrolabe, an early Moon will stall development and constrain mana. That's all it takes. If Ponza can capitalize, it wins. Without early Moon and lots of pressure, Snow eventually pulls itself out thanks to all the basics and cantrips and comes back. Snow has too many basics to be locked out completely, so it's a question of how much time it has, which Astrolabe didn't really affect.

As for Humans, I thought that Astrolabe's mana fixing wouldn't matter much. Unless Humans is running Magus of the Moon, it can't attack Snow's mana. However, Astrolabe's fixing was very important here because Humans punishes stumbles. Snow needed more fetchable shocklands more often to hit its color requirements. Astrolabe's largest contribution was Ice-Fang Coatl; despite being a control deck, Bant has very little removal. It leans on counterspells and Coatl to cover this weakness. With Astrolabe, Coatl's a removal spell starting turn 2. Without, it's turn three at best. This extra turn moved the matchup in Humans' favor.

Snow's Future

The snow strategies, as we knew them, are dead. Bant, Sultai, or Temur midrange are not. The reason is that the Snow manabase isn't going to work without Astrolabe. I know that I said Astrolabe didn't affect the Ponza matchup, but that's because of Blood Moon. The mana base is, unsurprisingly, very well tuned for that specific matchup. However, the strains of having a basic-heavy manabase in a three-color deck, especially with such intense color requirements, definitely showed in the Humans testing. Without Astrolabe, the risk of going for just basics makes itself known. In longer games, mana problems are mitigated thanks to the cantrips and Field of Ruin. That same manabase can't achieve the same impact in a shorter game, and will need retooling. It may be drastic, or it may be limited, but it will need to happen.

Along with that retooling, Ice-Fang's stock will change. As noted, there's no way to cheat on Coatl's deathtouch anymore with Astrolabe. That will have to be earned the hard way with Snow basics, and that is a risk. Fetching three basics over shocklands was always the right call. Now, there's a risk of fetching into mana problems. A deck with Bant's intense color requirements will struggle to both cast its spells and turn on Coatl more often, meaning it can't lean as heavily on it as removal. Thus, the spell suite must be retooled as well.

That said, the UGx strategy should still be viable. The strategy of Coatl, Archmage's Charm, Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath, and planeswalkers is powerful enough to survive. I can't guess at the form it will take (though I suspect that Temur Uro will be discarded because that's how it usually goes), but there should still be a viable UGx midrange deck in Modern.

How's Urza?

As for the Urza decks, I'm not sure. There are still lots of one-mana artifacts that cantrip in Modern. However, none of them draw as an ETB. Urza loved Astrolabe because it sat around to be used for mana. Thus, I have doubts that the midrange value Urza decks will be successful. However, older prison-style Whirza decks should be unaffected. Astrolabe was just bulk and not critical to anything they were doing. Urza has too many lines of text to just drop out of Modern, but he's losing so many tools that he's starting to approach fair territory.

The Winners

I put aggro decks as the biggest winners of the banning. Coatl getting nerfed really is a huge deal. This is particularly true for Spirits, which should have a great matchup against Snow, or any durdly deck full of expensive cards which care about card advantage. Coatl props up UGx, and Spirits doesn't have good answers. It's particularly bad when critical Spirits with hexproof get sniped. Humans will also appreciate having Mantis Rider picked off at advantage less often.

The next winner is Jund. Jund's fallen out of the meta, and Snow was at least partially to blame (though I think Ponza's a bigger factor). Jund wants to 1-for-1 with value until opponents lack the resources needed to win. That strategy doesn't work against a deck as full of 2-for-1s like UGx. I've seen Jund knock Bant down to no cards in hand and nothing on the board while attacking with Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger and still lose to topdecked Uro. With UGx taken down a peg, Jund has a chance to reclaim some ground.

What Didn't Happen

While everyone took it as given that Astrolabe would be banned, there was additional speculation that more could be banned. Mystic Sanctuary and Uro (the two most frequently cited other targets) are really repetitive, but pretty easy to answer because PLAY GRAVEYARD HATE IN MODERN! I don't get why this is such a problem, especially with General Kudro and Scavenging Ooze available as maindeck options. Just do it already. Plus, I'm glad Sanctuary didn't get axed for entirely selfish reasons. I know three players utterly enamored of their 4-Color Snow goodstuff decks and their whining about Astrolabe and Modern doomsaying is already melting my DM inbox. I can't imagine the anguished lamentations if their other baby, Sanctuary, got hit too.

The other thing was no unbannings. This is also not unexpected; there's little left that isn't clearly absurd and/or didn't earn its place in actual Modern tournaments. That didn't stop the wild speculation, but the bar keeps rising on unbannings, so I wouldn't get my hopes up. Though I am opening up to a Splinter Twin unban. Not because I think it's fine in Modern, but because doing so will be a lose-lose for the stalwarts who won't give Twin up. Either it's still too good (as I think) and will be rebanned, breaking their hearts, or they're right and the format has moved on enough that Twin's not actually good anymore; then, they get their hearts broken that their love's gone forever. And we can all just move on. I win either way!

Onward!

Another ban, another Modern shakeup. And another time to see how the metagame will start settling. I don't expect huge changes given that nothing's explicitly non-viable anymore, but I am certain that the brewer's paradise will continue for a while longer.

Banned and Restricted List Update – July 13, 2020

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The July 13, 2020 Banned and Restricted announcement is live! Here's the full list of cards in every format.

Historic

Agent of Treachery is banned (from suspended)

Winota, Joiner of Forces is banned (from suspended)

Fires of Invention is banned (from suspended)

Nexus of Fate is banned

Burning-Tree Emissary is suspended

Pioneer

Oath of Nissa is unbanned.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

Due to the unbanning of this once very powerful card in the format, we can expect immediate demand increase.

Modern

Arcum's Astrolabe is banned.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcum's Astrolabe

This 1-mana artifact from Modern Horizons is finally making an exit in Modern, a staple in several tier 1 decks and supporting a near "55% match-win rate" for some. Due to its prevalence and efficiency, it was noted that they are keeping an eye on it in Legacy as well.

Pauper

Expedition Map is banned.

Mystic Sanctuary is banned.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Expedition Map

Tron's high win rate and high metagame share in Pauper have led to the removal of Expedition Map, significantly hindering Tron decks ability to find its lands as consistently. Blue decks leveraging Mystic Sanctuary to create looping game states will now need to look elsewhere to make it work.

Notable Takeaways

Aside from the ban list changes, it was hinted that Standard decks leaning on a UG ramp package featuring Growth Spiral were on notice, and will be closely examined as the Standard metagame evolves. Related cards include Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath and Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse.

Missing from the discussion is the unbanning of cards like Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod, which had seen quite a bit of discussion in the week leading up to the announcement.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Splinter Twin
There was an error retrieving a chart for Birthing Pod

The bans take effect as follows:

Tabletop Effective Date: July 13, 2020

Magic Online Effective Date: July 13, 2020

MTG Arena effective date: July 16, 2020

Link to the full article by Ian Duke on the mothership.

The Little Goyf That Couldn’t: Ponza vs. GRx Moon

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Earlier this week, David dissected RG Ponza, the format's sleeper centralizer that may well overtake other Modern decks in the numbers soon. The deck exploits a peculiar vulnerability of Modern manabases: their softness to turn two Blood Moon. Of course, reliably powering out Moon effects isn't something any old deck can do with great consistency. But it just so happens to be a plan I've spent years developing. Today, we'll compare Ponza to my own GRx Moon builds and see what the big man on campus has that we don't.

"Many Moons" Ago...

It was my love of Tarmogoyf that drew me to Blood Moon shells, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't always have a soft spot for Blood Moon, too. Either way, many reps with Temur Delver had convinced me of the enchantment's power, but also left me hungry for a way to cheat in Moon a critical turn early. Savvy opponents could simply fetch around Moon most of the time when they saw it coming. The premise of GRx Moon was simple: use a mana dork to ramp into Moon early and then turn up the heat with Tarmogoyf. If the dork dies, turn up the heat with Tarmogoyf.

I reinvented the shell countless times over the next five years to accomodate for metagame changes and integrate new toys. And now, RG Ponza seems to be settling on top of the heap. Of course, Ponza doesn't run Tarmogoyf, so it's not for me. I still put in the reps to see if a Goyf-featuring shell could learn from that more successful version and put up results.

GRx Moon vs. RG Ponza

I actually compared GRx Moon to RG Ponza before, back in 2016; at the time, Ponza was gaining traction in Modern for the first time. Here's what I had to say:

When I introduced GRx Moon to Modern Nexus, the deck didn’t have a proper analog in Modern. I’d adapted the deck from Skred Red after having adding green to that deck for Tarmogoyf. Today, another deck exists that plays similarly: RG Ponza.

Ponza is a Stone Rain deck that rides mana advantages from Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl to power out Inferno Titan and Stormbreath Dragons, all with a turn two Moon in play. I don’t like how soft these decks are to Bolt effects, and especially to sweepers—if Arbor Elf gets taken out, it takes the Ponza deck five to six actual mana cards (be they lands or Utopia Sprawls) to start casting threats. Mana Leak also ends the deck.

GRx Moon has great insurance for dead dorks in Tarmogoyf, and stops its curve at four mana for threats. Extra mana sources (or disruption) can be cycled into more threats with Looting effects, or just played to get around taxing permission.

How much of that holds up now? Ponza has switched its top-end to the superior Glorybringer, and combines Utopia Sprawl with the London Mulligan to loosely patch up its enemy-Bolt problem. It's still clunky in the face of effective removal, but compensates by running more smoothly overall.

The Juggernaut

Here's RG Ponza, in all its "glory:"

RG Ponza, PTarts2win (2nd, Challenge 7/5)

Creatures

4 Glorybringer
4 Arbor Elf
2 Scavenging Ooze
3 Klothys, God of Destiny
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
2 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Enchantments

4 Utopia Sprawl

Sorceries

3 Pillage

Planeswalkers

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Stomping Ground
6 Forest
2 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
3 Choke
2 Cindervines
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Obstinate Baloth
2 Weather the Storm

What It's Missing

Elephant in the room: Goyf! But why would this deck want Goyf? Not only is the creature far softer than it used to be, Ponza has other things to do with its two-mana slot. There's Bonecrusher Giant, a versatile bump in card advantage; Scavenging Ooze, a late-game mana-sink and incidental graveyard hate; and nothing else. This deck is very intent on its dork surviving.

Naturally, half of them will; Utopia Sprawl is awfully hard to remove on turn one. That full playset and a few choice two-drops plug the curve hole left by the odd Arbor Elf eating Lightning Bolt. That being said, neither of those two-drops are cards players badly want to cast on turn two in lieu of something more powerful, and both fail to apply early pressure the way Goyf can when it's replacing a fallen soldier.

Sprawl can still be plucked from the hand by Inquisition of Kozilek, and I think the recent downtick in targeted discard is part of what makes this deck appealing. With those back in high numbers, Tarmogoyf becomes more of a solid crutch.

What It's Got

In my eyes, the single biggest addition to Ponza is Seasoned Pyromancer. Without this creature, the deck was truly all over the place, and suffered major mid- to late-game consistency issues. GRx Moon always sidestepped the issue with a lower curve, which would never exceed 4 CMC. That way, excess lands could be pitched to Faithless Looting. When we lost the sorcery, the appeal of "going cheap" plummeted similarly, giving an edge to Moon decks looking to hire bigger gats, such as Glorybringer.

Another major boon to the deck is Pillage. Back in 2015, when I experimented with faster mana and Goblin Rabblemaster in GRx Moon, I dreamed about "some magical Pillage reprint down the line;" lamenting Stone Rain the following year, as I strove to include a Lotus Cobra package, I wrote, "Without a Pillage reprint, Modern has always lacked a land destruction card flexible enough to warrant mainboard inclusion." Well, guess what? We got Pillage! And it's amazing! Pillage is the gold standard of three-mana land destruction for the same reason Kolaghan's Command and even Oko, Thief of Crowns were such big hits: incidental artifact hate is super powerful in Modern.

The Hopeful

And Goyf Moon, tweaked to more closely resemble its newfound big bro:

Goyf Moon, Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Arbor Elf
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
2 Magus of the Moon
3 Klothys, God of Destiny
3 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Planeswalkers

4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Utopia Sprawl
3 Blood Moon

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

2 Pillage

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Verdant Catacombs
2 Stomping Ground
2 Forest
2 Mountain
2 Forgotten Cave
1 Dryad Arbor

Sideboard

2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Collector Ouphe
2 Choke
2 Cindervines
3 Veil of Summer
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Feed the Clan
2 Anger of the Gods

What It's Missing

Gone are the five-drops of Ponza, in part because I'm allergic to high land counts. We've still got mana sinks mostly, the back-ends on Pyromancer and Bonecrusher. But it's more of a backup than an inevitability. That's because GRx Moon wants to keep the hits coming, whether it's turn two Moon or some speedy attackers, and end the game a little earlier.

Granted, in some matchups, that can be harder without Glorybringer. The Dragon is great against creature decks, clocking effectively while gunning down even beefy threats. Chandra, Torch of Defiance is also out of here, replaced by a cheaper card-advantage generator in Wrenn and Six.

What It's Got

The aggressive bump gained from deploying Goyf early pairs nicely with Bloodbraid and Klothys, which sneak in plenty of extra damage. Backup plans for disruption are extremely reliable in this deck because Goyf is joined by Wrenn and Six. The planeswalker wowed me in GRx Moon when it was spoiled, but certainly becomes less potent without Looting in the picture. It's still good: Wrenn lets us keep one-land hands with a dork and still make land drops all game, which feels pretty great when it happens.

As such, the land count is very light, at a functional 16; Forgotten Cave is splashed in high numbers to let us relive the glory days with Wrenn, turning the card into a draw engine, and Dryad Arbor, an eternal blocker. I'm not totally sold on either of these plans at the moment—Cave is sometimes clunky and impossible to get out of the deck when needed, while blocking all the time isn't something I've necessarily wanted in most of my games—and could see cutting 2 or more of these lands for other spells. Either way, Wrenn would need to stay at 4 copies to enable such a low count.

Really, this build's strength relative to RG Ponza is its resilience to Lightning Bolt specifically. For them, Magic is easy mush for the instant, and losing turn one Arbor Elf is all but a death sentence. We've got actual Blood Moons to ensure the effect sticks and a gang of ways to trump Bolt on turn two. As such, I think this build will improve slightly as Bold decks start to pick up steam... which thy should, as running Bolt is a great way to beat Ponza. Not only does it stop many of its lines and plans cold, it forces red, which is still produceable under Blood Moon!

Goyf's Return... NOT!

Will the metagame winds suddenly blow favorable for Tarmogoyf? My guess is not, Borat voice. What's more likely is both GRx Moon and RG Ponza will, after the latter spikes a bit in terms of wins over the next month or so, again become less viable as the metagame adapts. And adapt it shall: should Ponza maintain its shares, players will figure out how to build manabases that don't fold to turn two Moon. If Counter-Cat could do it, so can everything else. Until then, may you tap for two!

Budget-Focused: More Pioneer cards you need to acquire!

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Welcome everyone to this week’s article and a continuation of last week’s topic. For those that may have missed the last article, you can click the link here! We are diving a bit harder into Pioneer and where some diamonds in the rough might be lying dormant. We went over four cards last week and this week and this week we have three more to add!

Bring on Bloodsoaked Champion!

To start we are going to discuss a card that popped and then came back down a bit. The card being referenced is Bloodsoaked Champion. This thing looks like it can be the Gravecrawler of Pioneer, and that was the initial thought when the format was announced. It did see a lot of play in the early goings, but it has kind of fizzled as of late. This is one that nobody should sleep on, and it has plenty of opportunities to grow down the line.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodsoaked Champion

The current price for this is at $0.79 for the non-foils, $4.50 for the foils, and $6.47 for the prerelease copies. What needs to be driven home with this is the average on the non-foil copies. The margin for growth is most certainly there and should not be ignored. Where its foil counterpart lies one would think the non-foils would be closer to the $2.00 range. Regarding the foils, there is room for growth within the format.

It is currently being used more often in Mono Black Aggro but can be used elsewhere. Any deck leaning on reanimator, alternate sac outlets, or speed strategies should have this at the top of their list for one-drops. There was a Sultai build that I used this in with Grim Flayer and Prized Amalgam. It played rather well on MTGO, but never got to test in outside of tournament practice. The synergies within it did exactly as one would have hoped, it just needed some fine-tuning. Here is an example where this would fit perfectly, and this build recently placed fourth at MTGO Pioneer Preliminary.

Abzan Rally by Ma7x

Creatures

4 Blisterpod
4 Cartel Aristocrat
3 Cruel Celebrant
4 Fiend Artisan
3 Hunted Witness
3 Priest of Forgotten Gods
4 Satyr Wayfinder
4 Stitcher's Supplier
4 Zulaport Cutthroat

Instants and Sorceries

2 Rally the Ancestors
4 Return to the Ranks

Lands

4 Blooming Marsh
4 Concealed Courtyard
4 Godless Shrine
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Plains
2 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Assassin's Trophy
1 Caustic Caterpillar
2 Damping Sphere
3 Dead Weight
1 Drannith Magistrate
1 Enlightened Ascetic
3 Thoughtseize

Tutoring in Gruul with Signal the Clans

Next, we are going to talk about a Gruul card that has great upside with a little risk. Signal the Clans is an instant spell that should be in consideration for Gruul builds going forward. Its current price is $0.36 for the non-foils and $0.92 for the foil copies. One thing to consider when speculating this is the fact there is no promo and no reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Signal the Clans

Now let us investigate why we should consider this card. The first is that there are not a whole lot of tutors within the format. Secondly, it is an instant, so we can cast this on our opponent's end step. Last and most obvious, Gruul loves creatures and loves ramp. Having this will allow us to get an option to put on the board. The negative here is that you get one of the cards you pick at random. Even though it is random we can still pick three valuable options that can complement our play. Here is a recent Gruul build that took second in MTGO Pioneer League.

Gruul Aggro by citizenofnerdvana

Creatures

4 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Elvish Mystic
2 Ghor-Clan Rampager
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
1 Klothys, God of Destiny
3 Legion Warboss
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Lovestruck Beast
1 Rhonas the Indomitable
3 Steel Leaf Champion

Instants and Sorceries

4 Collected Company
2 Crater's Claws

Other Spells

2 Embercleave

Lands

8 Forest
2 Game Trail
6 Mountain
2 Rootbound Crag
4 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

2 Cindervines
1 Fry
3 Heroic Intervention
3 Lava Coil
2 Reclamation Sage
4 Scavenging Ooze

Although this deck has Collected Company in it, having 2 copies of Signal the Clans for an early play could help speed things up! Looking further at this build how mad can you really be at tutoring for any of those cards!

Breaking Into Your Wallets With Cryptbreaker

This next is definitely one to snag up, and that is Cryptbreaker! This surprisingly enough has not been in a top eight Pioneer deck since January (MTGtop8.com)! The current price is at $3.50 for the non-foils, $6.28 for the foils, and $8.32 for the prerelease copies. This card is so versatile it should be considered in most black builds. Not only will we get aggro with token creation, but it is great card advantage. For a one drop, the upside is worth having a 1/1 body out on the board. It compliments Priest of Forgotten Gods ability using our tokens as potential sac outlets. It also compliments every deck that is wanting to dump cards into the graveyard. Outside of Pioneer, it gets used in just about every zombie build in Commander. We are not discussing Commander, but it is worth noting the usage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptbreaker

To try and see where this can go in the present time, here is a list that got third place at an MTGO Preliminary.

Mono Black Aggro by Phill_Hellmuth

Creatures

4 Champion of Dusk
4 Dusk Legion Zealot
4 Gifted Aetherborn
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
4 Knight of the Ebon Legion
3 Murderous Rider

Instants and Sorceries

4 Fatal Push
2 Heartless Act
4 Thoughtseize

Other Spells

4 Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord

Lands

4 Castle Locthwain
4 Mutavault
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
15 Swamp
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Sideboard

3 Drill Bit
1 Heartless Act
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Lost Legacy
3 Rankle, Master of Pranks
2 Soul-Guide Lantern

This is just one of many options, and this should not be one to sleep on for a long-term spec in the format!

Final Thoughts

To close this one out I just wanted to say that there are a vast number of cards flying under the radar in my opinion. We will have more to discuss over the coming weeks, and I hope that some fly under a bit longer so I can talk about them! Do a little research and I know you will find some great cards to pick up! All the cards mentioned should be traded into at the very least and buy them if the cash is available. I hope you enjoyed this week’s article and come back for the next one!

Blood Moon’s Zenith: The New Police

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Tracking events and collecting and then presenting data is all well and good. It's how observations are turned into good science and how we analyze Magic's metagame ecosystem. However, saying that Bant Snow and Eldrazi Tron are tied for most played deck is only half the story. Why this is happening is a far harder, but more interesting question to answer. A question that I'm going to tackle this week.

The knee-jerk response will always be "They're the best decks." However, that still invites the question of why? And also glosses over the rest of Modern's incredible diversity. Why aren't former heavyweights like Grixis Death's Shadow or Amulet Titan dominating? I believe that the answer lies with an unexpected deck. My hypothesis is that Ponza is actually driving the metagame trends because it's wielding the card that is actually defining Modern right now. And with most players focusing on snow, it's going unchallenged.

Examining the Metagame

As a reminder, the June metagame looked like this:

Deck NameTotal #Metagame %
Other5518.7
Bant Snow289.5
Eldrazi Tron289.5
Ponza279.2
Burn227.5
Humans165.4
Storm134.4
Toolbox134.4
Dredge124.1
Amulet Titan124.1
Sultai Snow113.7
Whirza103.4
Temur Urza82.7
Prowess72.4
Temur Snow51.7
Mono-Green Tron51.7
Infect41.4
Neobrand31
Sultai Reclamation31
Izzet Tempo31
Unearth 31
Ad Nauseam31
Niv 2 Light31

The top five decks are Bant Snow variants, Eldrazi Tron, RG Ponza, Burn, and Humans. This means that Tier 1 is skewed towards the midrange, as 3/5 of the decks are on the slower side. Below them lies a range of combo decks, Amulet Titan, and artifact decks. This Tier 2 would tend to back up the conclusions about Tier 1, as combo tends to rise in response to grindy value. The artifact decks are on the midrange end, and given their higher exposure to hate, it makes sense that they're in a lower tier than Bant Snow.

As for why this happened, the simplistic answer is blaming Snow. After all, for months Bant Snow has apparently been everywhere, and was the deck to beat before companions ruined everything. Following then, Sultai Snow has seen a lot of play to the point that Gabriel Nassif at one point said "You are literally hemorrhaging equity if you're not playing this rn." He's in the Hall of Fame, so he knows what he's talking about. If the best decks are UGx Snow, and then the metagame is being defined by matchups against snow decks.

On the surface, the data would support this conclusion. Burn is faster than all the midrange decks and so consistent that opposing stumbles are mercilessly punished.  Humans excels against decks with low removal variety, few threats, and many non-creature cards. Eldrazi Tron has Chalice of the Void to shut off Path to Exile and giant monsters to win. And Ponza preys on snow decks, so of course it's doing well with Snow doing well.

A Twist

However, that's not the full picture. Remember, the data doesn't back up Bant Snow being the best deck. Bant's metagame share just plummeted through June, and but for that amazing first week, it wouldn't have been top tier. Sultai and Temur Snow were also nothing special in the overall data: Sultai had one good week then dropped off; Temur was mediocre at best throughout. You'd think that a busted, clear best deck would simply dominate in every expression, but that hasn't been the case.

And then there's Ponza. There's no question that Ponza is a rough matchup for snow decks. I've claimed, as the data suggests, that Ponza preys on Snow. Anti-decks will struggle against decks that are bad against the deck they're targeting, and therefore tend to be lower tier. Thus, the simple fact that Ponza is well positioned against the possibly overrated snow decks can't explain its metagame position.

Then there's that lingering question of why Ponza is well positioned in the first place. It's a beatdown deck with Blood Moon/Magus of the Moon. Nothing to see here against decks with tons of basics and Arcum's Astrolabe. After that, it's a pile of green and red creatures. Which should be simple for answer decks to overcome, but that isn't happening. And that's because I think that Blood Moon is the actual defining piece of the current metagame. Ponza just happens to be the best shell for Moon effects, and the metagame's vulnerability to those is driving Ponza's stock up.

What is Ponza?

Ponza is not a new deck. The name and the deck have existed since 1997, making it one of the oldest archetypes in Magic. And an idea that almost everyone has tried when learning the game. And yet the thing is named after some food Brian Kowal likes, I don't get it. In any case, as it has always been, the deck is just ramp beatdown with some land destruction for disruption.

RG Ponza, PTarts2win (2nd, Challenge 7/5)

Creatures

4 Arbor Elf
2 Scavenging Ooze
3 Klothys, God of Destiny
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
2 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Glorybringer

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Enchantments

4 Utopia Sprawl

Sorceries

3 Pillage

Planeswalkers

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Stomping Ground
6 Forest
2 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
3 Choke
2 Cindervines
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Obstinate Baloth
2 Weather the Storm

Thing is, regardless of iteration, it's never really been good. More of a joke really.

In ages past, it was the red deck with bad and uncastable spells. During the Mirrodin Block Constructed season, I remember some author (I have looked EVERYWHERE for that article!) saying that the only time Ponza gets turn one Slith Firewalker and turns two and three Molten Rain are the games it will lose anyway. That was literally the perfect hand for that deck. I've hit various versions of this deck over the years and always won easily and/or watched it fail. Usually against supposedly favorable matchups with perfect curves.

And then, over the past few months, something changed. Ponza has been doing well, even making it high into the standings. Typically it was only happening when the decks it preyed on, Bant Snow mainly, were doing well, but during the companion era it still hung on. And now it's actively doing well. To the point that I dread the matchup playing Humans, which has never happened before. Something is different, and it can't just be that Ponza's cheap online. It's comparatively cheap, but not the cheapest of the top tier decks.

Theros to the Rescue

The first change was Klothys, God of Destiny. In my preview article, I posited that Klothys would find a niche as an anti-control card in Jund. That didn't happen, and even when I reexamined my predictions, I glossed over her new role in what would become the current Ponza decks. Frankly, that Ponza could actually be good is not a thought I entertain regularly. It would seem I was wrong.

Klothys has become critical to the deck in a way I didn't appreciate. Yes, it is an inexorable clock against control, particularly Bant Snow decks. Those decks fill up their graveyards compulsively, and Klothy's just drains them down. And nerfs, if not defeats, their main win condition in Uro. However, Klothys is also part of the acceleration plan against everything else. Ponza is just a pile of beef and a Moon effect. To beat "better" decks requires dumping all that beef fast. Ponza generates lots of mana thanks to Utopia Sprawl and Arbor Elf, but that's not always enough. And once their job's done, Elf and Sprawl are kinda bad. Klothys is not bad once acceleration is unnecessary, making the rest of the shell more cohesive.

The Moon Rises

However, Ponza would still be Ponza were it not for Blood Moon effects being supremely well positioned. I hypothesize, and am doing testing to support, that Blood Moon is what's actually defining Modern right now. As I mentioned above, Ponza is doing well right now because it is the best Blood Moon deck. Not being burdened by Moon is a big part of that, but not the real story.

Ponza is an accelerated Moon deck. I realize that accelerating out Moon isn't a new idea, probably dating back to the original printing, and forms the basis of a successful Legacy deck. However, before now, a lot of that was on the back of ritual effects or Ancient Tomb[/mtg_card. The former is unreliable and the latter isn't legal. A deck which could reliably, efficiently, and economically hit turn two Moon is new and powerful. And this is the key to Ponza being successful. Modern has always been vulnerable to [mtg_card]Blood Moon. However, it wasn't early enough to really lock out most decks. Now it can, and Modern as a whole is still operating like it isn't a thing.

Consider the Rivals

I've been on the receiving end of this change more than I care to admit. Humans is extremely weak to Blood Moon thanks to its five-color manabase. Aether Vial is only helpful when given time, and Noble Hierarch gets Bolted a lot. Previously, this wasn't much of a problem because Moon was unlikely to hit early enough to prevent Humans from getting a board started with its nonbasic lands. Now I'm finding myself actually getting locked out more and a matchup that is, on paper, favorable is in practice very hard. Humans is generally too fast for low-removal decks to stop and has Reflector Mage and Mantis Rider, letting it zoom past land disruption. Now, it's locking in too fast.

However, I think Eldrazi Tron's matchup against Ponza is the most instructive. Moon was never that effective against normal Tron because its spells are truly colorless. The Eldrazi, on the other hand, need colorless mana. Thus, it should be a pushover for a Moon deck. However, that's not exactly the case.

Eldrazi Tron, Bullz0eye (1st Place, Modern Challenge 7/5)

Creatures

4 Matter Reshaper
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
1 Endbringer
3 Walking Ballista

Artifacts

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Expedition Map
3 Mazemind Tome
1 Mind Stone

Instants

2 Dismember

Planeswalkers

4 Karn, the Great Creator
2 Ugin, the Ineffable

Lands

4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower
4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Cavern of Souls
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Blast Zone
1 Scavenging Grounds
2 Waste

Sideboard

2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Spatial Contortion
1 Walking Ballista
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Mystic Forge
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Sundering Titan
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Liquidmetal Coating
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1 Tormod's Crypt

E-Tron looks very vulnerable to Ponza, especially with many lists cutting Mind Stone. And it is, though it's not as bad as it looks. Expedition Map for Wastes breaks the lock. Walking Ballista deals with the Magus of the Moon. And Karn, the Great Creator's toolbox fixes everything. The key is that these all take time, and previous Ponza decks tended to have relatively anemic clocks.

No longer. Klothys into Glorybringer is a phenomenal curve and clock in this matchup. Seasoned Pyromancer goes wide and finds more beef. Bloodbraid Elf can swing games from nowhere. This was all possible before, but older versions had more land destruction, which often meant dead draws, and had higher curves. The new wave of Ponza has learned from the deck's unfortunate past, prioritizing faster clocks and more widespread disruption. This actually constricts the opponent's time to recover rather than leaving everyone spinning their wheels destroying and playing lands. Ponza has closed the gap in its attack and is finally a scary deck.

Blood on the Snow

Which at last brings us to Snow. On paper, snow decks of all stripes shouldn't be vulnerable to Moon. They're playing color fixing Arcum's Astrolabe and have a lot of basics. Moon's only real purpose is shutting off Mystic Sanctuary. Which isn't nothing, but could be done just as easily with Relic of Progenitus. However, that is over simplified. Consider this representative deck:

Bant Snow, Zyuryo (5th Place, Modern Challenge 7/5)

Creatures

4 Ice-Fang Coatl
2 Snapcaster Mage
3 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe

Instants

4 Path to Exile
1 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak
1 Dovin's Veto
3 Force of Negation
2 Archmage's Charm
2 Cryptic Command

Sorceries

2 Supreme Verdict
1 Timely Reinforcements

Planeswalkers

2 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Flooded Strand
4 Field of Ruin
1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Temple Garden
1 Mystic Sanctuary
5 Snow-Covered Island
2 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Forest

Sideboard

2 Veil of Summer
2 Celestial Purge
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Aether Gust
1 Timely Reinforcements
1 Containment Priest
1 Monastery Mentor
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Mystical Dispute

This deck has eight basic lands, the vast majority being Islands. It uses this manabase to cast double-white Supreme Verdict, triple-blue spells, and double-green Uro. The key is that snow decks have lots of fetchlands to make it happen, and Field of Ruin to make the opponent's mana worse while fixing their own. The snow manabase is strong, but brittle. It's surprisingly effective and flexible, but hit those search effects and the whole thing starts to fall apart.

This is where Ponza shines. That fast Moon will shut off the fetchlands before Bant can find the basics or Astrolabe. This isn't fatal, as Bant will likely draw basics, but not necessarily the right ones. And Ponza can exacerbate that with Pillage. All while having a lot of mana to advance its clock. And what a clock! As mentioned, Klothys is a house, and as long as devotion stays low the only way Bant can avoid being drained out is to bounce, then counter, the God. However, the other creatures net value too, which lets Ponza keep up with Bant's 2-for-1's, particularly Ice-Fang Coatl.

The real benefit, however, is how those threats line up against Bant. The main plan is Ice-Fang, which stacks up poorly against Lightning Bolt or Stomp. Force of Negation and Dovin's Veto are pretty poor. Sideboard Choke is even worse for snow than Moon, particularly when Force and Veto are getting cut. Ponza has found Snow's weak points, and by sheer luck, they're the exact points that Ponza targets anyway.

The New Sheriff

I've been down this road before. Three years ago, Jund mysteriously disappeared from the metagame standings. I posited that a metagame shift that wasn't reflected in the data was a fault. The data over that summer backed me up. We'll see how things go this time.

Top Picks for Core Set 2021

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Another set release is upon us during the global COVID-19 pandemic. This time it’s a core set, Magic 2021, that is having its demand impacted by a lack of paper events. Much like Ikoria, this could generate some interesting opportunities to acquire cards on the cheap.

In fact, there are two categories of cards I like from Magic 2021. First, there are a couple cards that are already having their impact on Standard. Second, Magic 2021 contains a number of Commander reprints with long term upside potential.

This week I’ll examine the set and highlight cards in both categories, with some inspiration from Twitter commentary!

Commander Reprints

Let’s start with the Commander cards, as this category is most compelling. In recent articles, I’ve written about how paper Magic is suffering except for casual and Commander play. It seems these cards are resilient to the lack of in-person paper Magic events. I’m convinced Commander is now the most played paper Magic format.

A couple of Magic 2021 reprints have brought prices down on some Commander favorites. Even premium versions—alt art foils—are selling at a discount as the new set is being opened. I especially like the alternate art foils for Commander speculation because Commander players are frequently seeking the most impressive versions of a card.

For this section, I want to acknowledge @ToaMichael for some inspiration in this tweet:

I suspect the top-selling Commander cards on TCGplayer are directly correlated to this exact purchase, so I won’t try to cite TCGplayer’s “best seller” ranking because the data is biased. That said, I do love each of the purchases Michael made above. Cultivate is a popular green Commander card as it offers both mana fixing and mana ramp (two necessities in the format). Scavenging Ooze can hose graveyard strategies, and it doubles up as a tournament playable card (more on this later). Solemn Simulacrum needs no explanation—I think we can all agree this card is everywhere in Commander.

Take a look at those prices! Despite being reprinted a billion times, Solemn Simulacrum continues to hold a $5 price point. I don’t think we’ll see copies under $2 for very long. While buying cards at $2 and selling at $5 is hardly inspirational, the alternate art foils are under $10 and may offer the greatest upside.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solemn Simulacrum

In addition to the cards mentioned above, I also think foil alternate art Sublime Epiphany is a worthwhile consideration. I’m fairly sure Cryptic Command sees a ton of play in Commander, and this seems like a Cryptic Command on steroids.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sublime Epiphany

Lastly, let’s not overlook the likely popularity of dog- and cat-based decks thanks to the printing of legendary creature Rin and Seri, Inseparable. Alternate art foils of this card may also gradually increase over time because… well, many people love their dogs and cats! Kyle Massa, writer for EDH REC, calls out this card in particular as the “can’t-miss pick” of Core Set 2021.

Standard Playables

I used to ignore Standard completely. For years, I would simply observe how Standard card prices fluctuate without actually participating in this market.

Since I started playing Arena a few months ago, this changed. Now I can observe first-hand what new cards are making waves in the Standard metagame and speculate accordingly. Of course, all my Standard-based suggestions below must carry a caveat that prices may not move without the return of in-person events. Let’s hope we can all get together and battle in paper Magic before Core Set 2021 rotates.

My number one pick from Standard is inspired, once again, by Twitter. This time it was a tweet from @SethManfield, professional Magic player:

This card is the real deal. Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse may be one of the hardest Magic cards to pronounce, but it’s not difficult to envision why she’s so powerful in the current metagame. Think about those Bant Control decks that run Teferi, Time Raveler, Shark Typhoon, Growth Spiral, Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath, and Teferi, Master of Time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Master of Time

The deck is a natural fit for this legendary creature—she hits the board early and starts making cats by turn 3, providing much-needed defense against the most aggressive decks in the format. Her ability can be triggered nearly every turn, creating a substantial board presence through the early stages of a game whereas before, the deck didn’t stick as many permanents the first few turns.

At first, I didn’t take this card seriously when my opponents cast it in Standard—but I’m a true believer now. I’ve purchased a dozen or so copies at just over a buck a piece with the hopes of selling them closer to $5 should paper Magic return.

Speaking of the Bant Control deck, Teferi, Master of Time and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon are both seeing their share of play. I don’t think these are 4-ofs in the deck (certainly not Ugin), but they are mythic rares in the set. These carry a hefty pricetag already, but if Core Set 2021 is underopened, these do have some upside when paper play resumes in 2021 (hopefully).

Another card I’m seeing in Standard on occasion is Terror of the Peaks. This is one of the more costly cards in the set at around $10, but a far cry from Teferi and Ugin’s $30 price point. The red dragon may not be as flashy as the planeswalkers, but it may have some lasting impact on Standard. I don’t own any copies, but may look to pick some up should the price decrease a bit post-release once everyone is finished opening their product.

One card I did purchase for myself (to own, not for speculation) is foil Liliana, Waker of the Dead.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Waker of the Dead

This version of Liliana was perhaps nerfed by its four mana casting cost. Still, she can come down on the board and defend herself and her ultimate is impressive. There isn’t a home for her in Standard right now, but at $6 I couldn’t resist picking up a foil copy for the collection. After all, there seems to be a floor on mythic rare Liliana Planeswalker cards—the cheapest ones on Card Kingdom’s site are Liliana, Death's Majesty and Liliana, Untouched by Death for $4.99 and $5.49, respectively. So grabbing a foil of the newest version for $6 seems like a purchase with very little downside.

Looking towards the lower end, there are a few sub-$2 cards worth considering. I’ve already mentioned Scavenging Ooze, which seems well-positioned in the current Standard metagame with Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath and Cauldron Familiar running rampant. The Standard metagame could evolve and make Baneslayer Angel a solid pick-up at $2, though I haven’t seen it played yet (remember when this card was $50?).  Solemn Simulacrum (regular version) at $1.50 seems awfully cheap.

If you need Temples, these are all dirt cheap, and right now is probably a good time to acquire your playsets. They’ll be heavily used in Standard for at least another year now. Lastly, I’m curious about Demonic Embrace. I’ve faced down this bulk rare in a couple Arena matches now. I don’t think it’s the most exciting thing you can do in Standard, but it is being tested by mono black players. Unchecked, this aura on a Knight of the Ebon Legion can end a game very quickly. And with its ability to be re-played from the graveyard, the risk of being 2-for-1’d is mitigated.

Wrapping It Up

Compared to Ikoria, I was initially unimpressed with Core Set 2021’s underwhelming power level. At face value, my impression was that the simpler cards would be no match for the complex power and flexibility offered by cards like Uro and Shark Typhoon. Since the set’s launch on Arena, however, I’ve changed my viewpoint.

Core Set 2021 is packed with playable cards for both Standard and Commander. This is a powerful combination, sure to generate interest in the set from all sorts of players. While players and stores open packs by the case, the market supply will have a momentary surge. But a lack of paper events may limit how much product is actually opened throughout the set’s life in Standard. As a result, I think there are some key opportunities to speculate.

Throughout this article, I touched on the cards that have my attention from both a Commander and a Standard viewpoint. My favorites include alternate-art foil copies of Cultivate and Solemn Simulacrum. For Standard, don’t look past Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse—she is the real deal.

The many reprints in the set also offers a great opportunity to pick up key staples on the cheap. The Temples and cards like Solemn Simulacrum and Fabled Passage will be relatively cheap pick-ups if you need copies for play. These reprints provide a welcome drop in price so that players can grab their copies at the momentary “discount”. As long as they’re not reprinted in every Core Set, I like these cards as long-term holds.

And in general, I like playable cards from Core Set 2021 and Ikoria because I believe both sets will be under-opened thanks to COVID-19. It’s unclear how the pandemic will impact prices over the long-run, but I suspect the lack of paper events will lead to less product being opened, which in turn will make for higher price ceilings in the long run. Only time will tell!

June ’20 Brew Report, Pt. 2: Cheater’s Paradise

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Earlier this month, we saw the early effects of the companion nerf, especially as they affected Yorion decks. Players have since transitioned away from companions for the most part, with some exceptions, as we'll get to. Today, we'll look at ten more spicy strategies to emerge from Modern's rebuilding.

Deck-to-Table

Grassroots as brewing can be, it’s always been but a matter of time until grown-local die-hards tried their hand at the process. Hence the following couple decks, which skirt over the sort of mass-production arguably responsible for this year’s pandemic and dump their fresh meat all over the playmat.

RG Company, ANAMIKA (5-0)

Creatures

3 Ahn-Crop Crasher
3 Birds of Paradise
1 Bonecrusher Giant
1 Gallia of the Endless Dance
3 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
3 Hexdrinker
4 Legion Warboss
4 Noble Hierarch
3 Scavenging Ooze
1 Seasoned Pyromancer

Instants

1 Abrade
4 Collected Company
3 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Breeding Pool
3 Forest
2 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Mountain
1 Sacred Foundry
3 Stomping Ground
2 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Blood Moon
2 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Magus of the Moon
2 Mana Leak
3 Path to Exile
2 Rest in Peace

RG Company is a fresh take on Collected Company, moving away from combo in favor of an all-out assault fueled by Legion Warboss and Goblin Rabblemaster. Ahn-Crop Crasher joins the Rabblers in the red zone, exerting to prevent opponents from simply trading with such fragile beaters. In a metagame light on creatures, opponents are unlikely to have many blockers held back, and just the one looks pretty silly when Ahn-Crop comes off a lucky company to shut it down for the turn. That one big-damage hit may be all RG Company needs to put the game away beyond hope.

Eldritch Winota, SORA1248 (32nd, Challenge #12165548)

Creatures

4 Winota, Joiner of Forces
4 Angrath's Marauders
3 Arbor Elf
4 Birds of Paradise
1 Eternal Witness
1 Magus of the Moon
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
4 Strangleroot Geist
3 Voice of Resurgence

Artifacts

2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

3 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Eldritch Evolution

Lands

1 Cavern of Souls
4 Copperline Gorge
1 Razorverge Thicket
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
3 Stomping Ground
3 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Lightning Bolt
2 Avalanche Riders
1 Choke
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Knight of Autumn
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
3 Rest in Peace
3 Timely Reinforcements

Eldritch Winota takes advantage of Winota, Joiner of Forces, an overlooked mythic rare from Ikoria. Winota has already proven itself in other formats, and has found surprising symbiotes in Modern’s Seasoned Pyromancer and Birds of Paradise. The former loots through clunkier combo pieces to create 1/1 Elementals, which swing under Winota and cheat in more Pyromancers, Magus of the Moon, or even Angrath's Marauders, the deck’s primary payoff.

Magus can also be tutored by Eldritch Evolution, a card that likewise grabs Winota straight from the deck. If it’s tributing Strangelroot Geist, the undying Spirit gets to swing right away with haste and trigger Winota on the same turn! And Birds both ramps into Eldritch/Winota and attacks to trigger it.

This deck can create an insurmountable board quickly if Winota sticks, and being immune to Abrupt Decay and Lightning Bolt makes the creature relatively sturdy. But a timely counterspell on Eldritch or Winota itself can cripple the strategy, which otherwise is a sub-par beatdown deck. I expect it to either adopt some sustainable Plan B’s in the coming months or to fall by the wayside as Modern regains its composure after the shake-ups.

Power Trip

In case there was any doubt, 2020 brought home the fact that great power lies in cantripping. This month, two older cantrip decks hinted at potential comebacks.

Thing Ascension, ZEEKERY (21st, Challenge #12171462)

Creatures

4 Thing in the Ice

Enchantments

4 Pyromancer Ascension

Instants

2 Force of Negation
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Manamorphose
4 Opt
2 Path to Exile
2 Remand
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand

Sideboards

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
2 Sprite Dragon
2 Aether Gust
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Blessed Alliance
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Pillage
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Wear // Tear

Lands

1 Fiery Islet
3 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Raugrin Triome
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents

Thing Ascension is a whopping four years old, and indeed, we haven't heard much from this deck in the interim. It's quite the pile, featuring the best Jeskai has to offer in cantrips and burn, backed up by the greatest available payoffs. Those are apparently the same as they were close to half a decade ago: Pyromancer Ascension and Thing in the Ice.

The enchantment skirts creature removal, but relies on the graveyard, while the creature bites the dust to Fatal Push but ignores Rest in Peace. As such, these two threats reward pilots for chaining together draw and burn in ways that compliment each other without tension when faced with enemy hate.

In a Push-heavy metagame light on sweepers, Young Pyromancer could maybe get the nod over Thing. But more compelling still is a creature that makes the sideboard this time around: Sprite Dragon. Sprite can lock in damage the turn it comes down thanks to Haste, giving the deck's critical turn more immediacy.

Lurrus of the Dream-Den is another interesting sideboard card; since the deck often plays reactively, reaching companion mana isn't particularly hard in many matchups, and re-buying a stripped-away Ascension or Thing can spell doom for opponents. Realistically, though, I doubt Lurrus makes an appearance in more games, and is mostly a free-roll since the deck has no use for high-costed permanents anyway.

Izzet Phoenix, CAMR0N_1 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Merchant of the Vale
4 Thing in the Ice
1 Bedlam Reveler

Instants

2 Izzet Charm
2 Lightning Axe
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Opt
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

2 Chart a Course
2 Finale of Promise
4 Serum Visions
1 Sleight of Hand

Lands

1 Fiery Islet
3 Island
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

2 Abrade
2 Aether Gust
2 Aria of Flame
2 Blood Moon
2 Force of Negation
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Mystical Dispute
1 Surgical Extraction

I know you remember this one! Izzet Phoenix dominated the Modern conversation last year, only dying down once Faithless Looting met the banlist.

Replacing the star sorcery is Merchant of the Veil, a significant downgrade that loots less but nonetheless dumps Phoenix from the hand into the graveyard while counting towards its revival condition. Vale also provides card advantage in a pinch, something that comes in handy should opponents manage to Surgical Extraction an Arclight Phoenix.

Lurrus Losing Out

That's a steep drop from "U Laugh, U Lurrus," but here we are. The card is still quite powerful, acting as a Snapcaster Mage for permanents, but it's far from overpowered post-nerf. Players need to get creative to keep running Lurrus of the Dream-Den, and that's exactly what some are doing.

Crackbane, WAMBOCOMBO2020 (5-0)

Creatures

2 Chevill, Bane of Monsters
3 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe
4 Mishra's Bauble
1 Nihil Spellbomb

Enchantments

3 Seal of Fire

Instants

4 Fatal Push

Sorceries

4 Crack the Earth
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Smallpox
1 Thoughtseize
2 Unearth

Lands

1 Barren Moor
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Overgrown Tomb
2 Prismatic Vista
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Stomping Ground
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
1 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Boil
1 Cindervines
3 Collective Brutality
2 Engineered Explosives
3 Pillage
1 Veil of Summer
1 Weather the Storm

Crackbane is a unique take on Pox that plays Lurrus as intended: from the sideboard. Chevill, Bane of Monsters rewards the sacrifice synergies, serving as a draw engine and damage outlet as opponents gradually lose their board. For its part, Crack the Earth bolsters the Smallpox plan by serving up one-mana land destruction alongside cantripping permanents like Arcum's Astrolabe.

With Wrenn and Six keeping the drops coming, sacrificing an actual land here and there isn’t the end of the world, either. Then there’s Kroxa, which loves being fed to Smallpox from the player’s hand, and Seal of Fire, which will do as a Crack offering in a pinch.

BW Return, ARISTOCRATS (5-0)

Creatures

4 Blood Artist
4 Carrion Feeder
4 Cruel Celebrant
4 Doomed Traveler
1 Hunted Witness
4 Priest of Forgotten Gods
4 Stitcher's Supplier
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Tidehollow Sculler
2 Tithe Taker
3 Viscera Seer

Sorceries

4 Return to the Ranks

Lands

1 Caves of Koilos
4 Concealed Courtyard
4 Godless Shrine
4 Marsh Flats
3 Plains
2 Silent Clearing
2 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Collective Brutality
2 Fatal Push
3 Judge's Familiar
4 Leonin Relic-Warder

BW Return throws its creatures around left and right, turbo-stocking the graveyard with Stitcher's Supplier, as it builds towards a huge Return to the Ranks. With sacrifice outlets like Viscera Seer, the deck can turn its Blood Artists into instant win conditions should opponents find themselves light on grave hate. Priest of Forgotten Gods turns up the synergy while adding disruptive and ramping elements should it live long enough to tap.

This deck, too, runs Lurrus in the sideboard. Once retrived, the card can get the ball rolling again with Stitcher's Supplier (two more triggers!) or just help play a fair game by recurring some token-generating bodies for more value.

Grixis Lurrus, ASPIRINGSPIKE (5-0)

Creatures

3 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Sprite Dragon

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Enchantments

1 Seal of Fire

Instants

3 Archmage's Charm
1 Cling to Dust
2 Drown in the Loch
4 Force of Negation
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mana Leak
2 Spell Snare
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

2 Unearth

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
3 Darkslick Shores
2 Island
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
3 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Seal of Fire
1 Unearth
3 Aether Gust
3 Collective Brutality
1 Fatal Push
2 Flusterstorm
1 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Tormod's Crypt

Unlike the last two decks, Grixis Lurrus is in fact totally built around Lurrus! Well, not totally, since there isn’t one in the sideboard; running Lurrus main prevents players from achieving its companion condition. Here, Lurrus can be cheated out with Unearth after getting flipped by Thought Scour, providing flashes of the mana-efficient tide-swinging Lurrus once gave Modern players. Once in play, it recurs Mishra's Bauble, Snapcaster Mage, or main win condition Sprite Dragon over and over. Post-board, players gain access to tools like Tormod's Crypt and Nihil Spellbomb, giving Lurrus a disruptive angle.

Control Freaks

Slow down, you're moving too fast! That's a criticism some may well have with the new Modern, and one a certain style of player was all but bound to take literally.

Kinnan Yourorza, MANACYMBAL (32nd, Challenge #12171462)

Creatures

4 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy
4 Gilded Goose
4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
4 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer
3 Trinket Mage
1 Ox of Agonas
1 Walking Ballista

Planeswalkers

2 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Karn, the Great Creator
4 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Amber
1 Pithing Needle
1 Shadowspear
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
4 Springleaf Drum

Enchantments

1 Song of Creation

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Prismatic Vista
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Snow-Covered Forest
4 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

1 Yorion, Sky Nomad
1 Walking Ballista
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Damping Sphere
1 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Galvanic Blast
1 Liquimetal Coating
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Tormod's Crypt
3 Veil of Summer

Perhaps the wildest deck we'll cover today is Kinnan Yourorza, an unholy fusion of plans and packages not terribly unlike the Yorion Snow decks we were seeing in companion's heyday. Except there's no snow package here; just Arcum's Astrolabe, one of Modern's best available cantrips, alongside Veil of Summer, another.

Among the included packages are:

  • Trinket Mage, a toolboxer that at worst slow-trips with Mishra's Bauble
  • Wrenn and Six, to ensure all land drops are made
  • Karn, the Great Creator, a late-game mana-sink, Swiss Army knife, and tide-turner
  • Springleaf Drum, which combines with Gilded Goose, Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy, and Emry, Lurker of the Loch to dump out hands and ramp into haymakers Affinity-style

The Kinnan-Springleaf interaction is particularly exciting: tapping Kinnan to Springleaf provides two mana, fully paying for the creature while locking in a colored Sol Ring for future turns. Add in Gilded Goose and Mox Amber (the latter of which is turned on by Kinnan as well) and the ramp potential becomes even more eyebrow-raising, rendering plans like Karn, Urza, and Uro eminently affordable.

Miracles, MUSSIE99 (5-0)

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Time Raveler

Enchantments

4 Counterbalance
3 Omen of the Sea

Instants

3 Archmage's Charm
3 Cryptic Command
3 Force of Negation
2 Logic Knot
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
1 Spell Snare

Sorceries

1 Entreat the Angels
1 Serum Visions
3 Terminus

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
3 Hallowed Fountain
6 Island
1 Misty Rainforest
3 Mystic Sanctuary
1 Plains
4 Polluted Delta
1 Prairie Stream

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Celestial Purge
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Flusterstorm
2 Monastery Mentor
1 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
2 Timely Reinforcements

In the midst of companion panic, one might’ve thought it would take a miracle to restore Modern to its former playability. Well, how about a couple? In Miracles, Omen of the Sea does enough of a Sensei's Divining Top impersonation to justify Counterbalance, hitting nostalgia notes even for Legacy aficionados that grieve their trinket. Mystic Sanctuary helps, too, letting players “fetch” a one-drop (or other CMC card) to the top in response to an enemy spell. Whether or not this shell holds, I’d keep an eye on Counterbalance this year.

Pitch Blue, TUBBYBATMAN (3-2, Preliminary #12173961)

Creatures

3 Notion Thief
4 Thing in the Ice
2 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

4 Narset, Parter of Veils

Artifacts

4 Mistvein Borderpost

Instants

2 Commandeer
4 Disrupting Shoal
1 Drown in the Loch
1 Engulf the Shore
2 Force of Negation
2 Remand
2 Snapback
3 Spell Pierce
2 Spell Snare
1 Vapor Snag

Sorceries

4 Day's Undoing
1 Commit // Memory

Lands

2 Geier Reach Sanitarium
1 Mikokoro, Center of the Sea
4 Polluted Delta
9 Snow-Covered Island
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Commandeer
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Blast Zone
2 Dead of Winter
2 Field of Ruin
2 Tyrant's Scorn
3 Unmoored Ego

There was a time when building an entire Modern deck around Notion Thief was nuts. But Narset, Parter of Veils gave the card some redundancy, and combined with the format-breaking Day's Undoing, a new deck was born in Pitch Blue. Of course, the original versions from last year stayed in one color; my testing with those shells left me craving both a more realized Plan B and more consist outlets to realize the full power of Day's Undoing, as the deck’s main draw engine floundered without Narset in play. So when I tried rebuilding it, I dipped into white and green for the snow package and Teferi, whose instant-speed plus effect gave Undoing added utility.

Here, Pitch Blue splashes black instead, which allows Notion Thief to enter the arena and double up on ways to turn casting Undoing into a patently broken move. Black also affords the deck Unmoored Ego to hose other single-card-focused combo decks.

No Cheating!

Okay, so players are still cheating creatures into play, cheating on draw spell restrictions, and cheating on symmetrical effects. But isn't cheating what Magic is about? I guess not when it came to companions, which even Wizards agreed were a little busted! Modern does feel less "cheaty" with the rule change in place, and it'll be interesting to see where the format lands once players have had a few more months of tuning their "good-cheating" decks into streamlined machines. I'll see you then!

Insider: Ikoria and Black Swans

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Magic has been around since 1993. It existed when we had the dot com collapse from 1999-2000 and it existed during the 2007-2008 economic collapse. Here we are in 2020 with yet another economic downturn, and yet this one provides additional opportunities that the others haven't with regards to MTG finance. While the prior two events both caused massive stock market losses and put a lot of families into tough financial decisions, our current downturn has the additional factor of social distancing.

As many of us have found, it is very difficult to actually play paper Magic in the current environment, where much of the MTG financial realm lives. We have seen a lack of paper events tied together with the truly broken Companion mechanic has given us depressed standard prices that many players have never seen before and those of us who have played for a long time haven't seen in 15+ years. The current set EV according to MTG Dawnglare for Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths is sitting at $62.52. The most expensive regular version card in the set is Fiend Artisan which is around $12-$13.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fiend Artisan

The next top 3 mythics in the set are only in the $7-$9 range and the most expensive regular version rare is Zagoth Triome which is currently a little under $6.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zagoth Triome

Why is this a big deal?

The reason I'm focusing in on the low prices of Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths is because, with such a low set EV and no demand from competitive Standard players, stores aren't cracking boxes. Normal economic principles dictate that when either supply is low or demand is high prices go up. Currently, we haven't seen prices rise from the set and we have already had another set, Core 2021, release which will divert drafting and many casual pack buyers away from Ikoria. So today, we will focus on some of the sleepers from Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths that I like for Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Keruga, the Macrosage

While I don't know if I'd want to build a Commander deck using Keruga, the Macrosage as a companion, though admittedly I don't think his requirement is that out of line for a Commander deck, instead I like him as a potential commander himself or as 1 of the 99. Blue and green are arguably the most powerful 2 colors for Commander so his color requirements aren't much of an issue.

His ability is very similar to Regal Force which prior to it's Eternal Masters reprint sat at $12+ for a year and a half. The change from creatures to permanents with CMC above 3 could actually make Keruga, the Macrosage better. There are plenty of U/G/x Commander decks that play very few creatures that cost less than 3, so in those decks Keruga is likely superior as the ability to trigger off of artifacts and enchantments is a big plus. With current buy-in at or very near bulk prices there is minimal risk in this card as a speculation investment.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emergent Ultimatum

This is the first Ultimatum on our list, but it won't be the last. This card remind me a lot of players casting Gifts Ungiven and creating a pile that always works out well for the caster. While the mono-colored spell requirement does reduce the power level of this card, there are still no shortage of extremely powerful mono-colored cards that can be played in a Sultai shell.

Initially, I wasn't that impressed with this card, but with the right deckbuilding this card just says cast 2 of the 3 most powerful cards in your deck. Think of a pile like Time Stretch, Expropriate, and Praetor's Counsel and then ask yourself if casting 2 of those is worth the 7 mana investment of Emergent Ultimatum. This card also sits at the bulk or near bulk status so buy in cost and risk are both low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whirlwind of Thought

This card fits perfectly into any of the Jeskai storm decks, usually commanded by Kykar, Wind's Fury, however, Jeskai also tends to be an archetype that plays a lot of noncreature spells in general so adding a free card draw with no additional mana cost seems extremely powerful. As with my other previous picks the current price is very low so the risk is minimized.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eerie Ultimatum

The limitation on Eerie Ultimatum is basically nonexistent in a singleton format like Commander, so it essentially says put all permanents from your graveyard into play. Abzan reanimator decks have been popular in Commander since the first Commander decks came out with Karador, Ghost Chieftain at the helm. This card is an obvious staple in that archetype and honestly could easily go into any Abzan deck to be used as a late-game value engine. While this card isn't at bulk as it's sitting around $1 it is still very cheap.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruinous Ultimatum

The last of the Ultimatum cycle we will cover today, this card's biggest issue is it's Mardu color requirements. While it can't be played at instant speed and has a 3 color requirement it's effect is likely better than Cyclonic Rift's as you deal with your opponent's permanents rather than just resetting their boards.

Conclusion

While I think there are a plethora of great Commander cards in Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths, my focus today has been on the cards with the lowest buy-in that still have significant upside. My speculation focus is heavily skewed towards cards that can have very high percentage gains even if the risk is higher than other cards; for example, I think the Triome cycle is amazing for Commander as any deck playing a lot of fetchlands can often have perfect mana very early on in the game, despite being greedy with the color requirements of many spells. However, I don't know how high the prices can go on these lands given there are so many variants and they would be pretty easy to reprint.

I will admit that I have purchased at least 6 copies of each Showcase version of each Triome, but my logic on that decision is that specialty versions of a card shouldn't take much of a hit with future reprints as that particular version is unlikely to be reprinted.

 

Trending Away: Modern’s Metagame Muddle

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It's the end of June. Normally that wouldn't feel weird to say, but this is a rather unusual year. Where has it gone, and simultaneously why does it feel like it never goes at all? Without paper events as a guide and work disrupted, time is losing meaning to me. Fortunately, I keep being reminded of time as a side effect of tracking metagame changes and data. And therefore it's time to take a look at the overall metagame and try to see where it's heading.

I want to make it clear that I'm not doing a classic-style metagame update. The first reason is that those used a weighting system to reflect the differences between paper and online Magic, which is not applicable right now. Thus, I don't have to do the calculations. The second, and more primary reason, is data points. I only have 295 total decks in my sample, and while that seems like a lot, a good sample for this scale of inquiry should have at least 500 entries, and ideally at least 1000. So when I actually tried to do the stats work, I got a tier list that made no sense. I'm contemplating how to work around this problem for the future, but in the meantime, we still have plenty of juicy data to dive into!

Week of 6/21

I'll begin where I left off last week. I started tracking the weekly results to determine the impact that companions were having on Modern. It ended on a pretty grim note. I kept going to see if the nerf worked. It had, and since it's clear that companions are now just Magic cards, I'm done sorting them out of results. Nothing worth seeing anymore. A consequence of all that inquiry was that I watched how the metagame changed week to week, and observed that since the nerf, Modern had gotten very volatile. The additional week of data confirms that observation.

Deck NameTotal #
Other13
Eldrazi Tron8
Burn6
Ponza5
Bant Snow4
Humans4
Sultai Snow4
Toolbox3
Amulet Titan3
Storm3
Mono-Green Tron3
Izzet Tempo2
Whirza2
Kinnan Combo2
Infect2
Winota2
Grixis Death's Shadow2
Temur Rec2
Dredge2
Prowess2

The first thing I have to address is the numbers. This week, only one Challenge was reported, and the five Preliminaries were pretty small, so I only have 74 results. I suspect that release events for Core 2021 are at fault.

The second thing is the volatility. Ponza fell to third, Burn rose to second, and all the snow decks lost percentage. Amulet Titan reappeared while Whirza collapsed. Other, made up of all the singleton decks, remains the most populous category by a good margin. What this suggests is that there's no clear best deck in this metagame. Players are seeing success with wide ranges of decks each week. The question will be how sustainable this volatility is.

As a case in point, this week saw two decks built around Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy. I was tempted to lump them in with the Toolbox decks, but these decks weren't built around their tutors. In fact, I think each only had Eldritch Evolution. The same is true for the two Winota, Joiner of Forces decks. This isn't the first time Winota has been in the data, but previous decks had more tutors, and so were classified as Toolbox. These new versions are Zoo decks with a card that's arguably busted, which means they're a different archetype.

June's Aggregate Metagame

If the week-by-week results are unclear, then what about the overall metagame? There's a very clear answer, but it's not what I expected. For this section I combined the results from all the weekly metagame updates. After I calculated the metagame percentages, I lumped all the 2-of decks into Other with the singletons because they were less than 1% of the metagame.

Deck NameTotal #Metagame %
Other5518.7
Bant Snow289.5
Eldrazi Tron289.5
Ponza279.2
Burn227.5
Humans165.4
Storm134.4
Toolbox134.4
Dredge124.1
Amulet Titan124.1
Sultai Snow113.7
Whirza103.4
Temur Urza82.7
Prowess72.4
Temur Snow51.7
Mono-Green Tron51.7
Infect41.4
Neobrand31
Sultai Reclamation31
Izzet Tempo31
Unearth 31
Ad Nauseam31
Niv 2 Light31

Other is the most popular category by far. To be clear, there were 20 decks with two results, so even if I hadn't put them in Other, it would still be the largest category. This strongly indicates that there is great diversity in the metagame and that brewers are finding success with offbeat decks. That fact normally indicates overall metagame health.

As for the individual decks, there are some stark divisions in the data. Four decks posted 22+ results in June, and then there's a sheer drop off to Humans with 16. If you were to twist my arm for a tier list, I would put Bant Snow, Eldrazi Tron, Ponza, and Burn in Tier 1. Humans would be Tier 1.5 in my book, with all the decks with 10-13 results constituting Tier 2. I'm saying this rather than giving a mathematical answer because my calculation put Tier 1 at only the top 3 decks and Tier 2 was Burn, Humans, Storm, and Toolbox. I haven't had time to figure out if this is a function of the methodology being inappropriate or if I messed up somewhere.

In either case, the metagame has definitely slowed down without companions. June's metagame was similar to, though not exactly the same as, the pre-companion metagame. Slower decks had the advantage while aggro and combo were looking for a way into the metagame. What that means for July is unclear.

Where's it Going?

I know this heading title sounds like a rhetorical question, but I'm being genuine. As I was putting this all together, it became clear that Modern is now in wild flux. The power rankings don't accurately reflect the reality of the metagame. This makes perfect sense, as they're an aggregation meant to show the overall trend rather than reflect dynamic reality. Looking at the specifics of the data raises a lot of questions about those aggregate results. Take this graph showing the top five decks from the power rankings by weekly metagame percentage.

As shown, every deck's been up and down. None more than Bant Snow, which simply collapsed after week 1. Were it not for that exceptional first week, it would not be tied for first place. In fact, that week 1 result is so out of line with what Bant Snow managed in subsequent weeks that I'm inclined to think of it as an outlier. That ~15% was likely not a function of Bant Snow's positioning or metagame but rather population based. The fact that Snow as a whole declined in week 3 along with supposed predator Ponza supports this theory.

It's equally possible that the small sample size of week 3 impacted the results. However, that wouldn't change the overall picture of a very volatile metagame. As previously noted, players are seeing success with many different decks. The Other category is filled with decks that put up results once, then disappeared again. New decks have decent individual weeks, disappear, then reappear. And the top deck changes wildly between weeks. This tells me that there really isn't a metagame yet. Players are still trying to figure out what's good now, and that answer remains elusive.

What it Means

Right now is the time for brewing. If you've got the cards online, I'd recommend trying out that whacky idea you've been sitting on for awhile. It can't be weirder than the decks that have actually made the data. They've run the gauntlet from Toolbox decks that I can't find their combo kills to strange configurations of Mill to a straight port of Pioneer Inverter of Truth combo. Seriously, the only difference I remember is fetchlands. The best part is that everyone else is experimenting and looking for the new best decks, so even if your idea is half-baked, it's no less wonky than everything else.

Looking Ahead

However, nothing lasts forever. This Wild West will have to come to an end eventually. I don't know how it will end, but I am certain that Eldrazi Tron will hold a niche in that new world. Eldrazi have always been a significant part of the online metagame, even though they're inconsistent at best in paper. Furthermore, it looks like Chalice of the Void is a decent card again. The Eldrazi have lost a lot of their bite over the years, but Eldrazi Tron is always the best Chalice deck. When Chalice is good, so is E-Tron. I don't know if that's actually the case given the overall volatility, but players clearly think it's true. We'll have to keep watch.

The second observation is that targeted discard is at an all-time low in Modern. Jund and Grixis Death's Shadow are nowhere to be found. Sultai Snow doesn't always run Inquisition of Kozilek or Thoughseize maindeck, and is a small part of the metagame anyway. I suspect Snow decks being mainly 2-for-1's is a significant factor, as is Inquisition being bad against Eldrazi. Plus, Veil of Summer, anyone? Now is the time to break out decks that are weak to discard.

The third thing is that Big Mana is retreating. Eldrazi Tron doesn't count as it can't get big mana consistently. It's a beatdown deck with acceleration. Amulet Titan has fallen from the top of the metagame, and is now where I think it has always actually been. However, I've never considered normal Tron to be overrated or badly positioned. And yet it's just gone. Snow decks have upped their counters and run Field of Ruin, but they're a very small part of the metagame, so I'm mystified by Tron's fall.

Where I'm Heading

These trends are pushing me to actually put some money into MTGO and get a new deck. I already had Humans from years of playing MTGO drafts when the lockdown happened and paper Magic stopped. Not wanting to put money into digital cards, I've just been playing Humans. And it hasn't gone well recently. I was very surprised to see Humans as the fifth-place deck in the standings because I've had terrible results recently.

Part of that has been on me. I play sloppier online than in paper. I'm not sure why, though the anonymity plays a part. In paper, if I mess up, I'll hear about it for weeks. Online, nobody knows you, so it's easy to just move on. I'm also doing nothing else when playing paper, and so focus more. I got a lot of other stuff distracting me on my computer. I've also had a run of terrible luck. Lots and lots of flood-outs and runs of terrible-but-fringe matchup after terrible-but-fringe matchup. Culminating in a League where I hit five Soul Sisters decks, flooded to death in each, and they hit multiple Path to Exile every game.

More importantly, but less cathartically, Humans has felt poorly positioned to me. A lot of the appeal of the deck is its fast clock and disruption. This makes it very strong against combo and control decks with limited sweepers. Which is exactly the metagame that we had until recently. Meddling Mage is very good against Amulet Titan. However, Humans is not and has never been very good against waves of spot removal, and that's what's seeing more play. Sultai Snow is very Jund-like, and the various Izzet decks that are creeping in have full sets of Lightning Bolt and Lava Dart. However, this meta is looking favorable for an old friend.

Updating Spirits

I quit playing Spirits when Big Mana and discard decks took off in the last third of last year. Spirits' clock was too slow to contend with Amulet Titan, even with Damping Sphere, and discard is a nightmare for a deck that wants to hold cards in hand until the time is right. Humans dodges both problems and so was the better deck. Now that everything's shifting, I'm looking back at my old standby.

UW Spirits, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer
2 Spectral Sailor
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Rattlechains
4 Supreme Phantom
2 Brazen Borrower
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain

Planeswalkers

3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Hallowed Fountain
2 Cavern of Souls
2 Moorland Haunt
2 Mutavault
1 Seachrome Coast
3 Island
3 Plains

I'm on Moorland Haunt and Mutavault over Field of Ruin thanks to the aforementioned fall off in Tron. Haunt is an exceptional tool in grindy matchups, and key to forcing my way through Ice-Fang Coatl. It's even better since I'm not running Rest in Peace at the moment. Without Jund or Dredge, the need for long term persistent graveyard hate is down. Grafdigger's Cage is far more useful in more matchups. I'm still testing, but Spirits loves a meta full of durdle, and Spell Queller targets.

Take Advantage

The June meta clearly shows that Modern is in flux. This cannot last, but since Wizards attention is focused solely on Arena (and I'm not sure it's working out) Modern will have more breathing room than normal. Without the spotlight, there's time to experiment. We'll see how this affects July's metagame in a month.

Buylist Competition Is Heating Up

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When it comes to monitoring certain card prices, I can be a little obsessed. My morning routine always includes a quick glance at the Interests page on MTG Stocks as well as Card Kingdom’s hotlist. I’ll also frequent other buylists to glean retailer sentiment regarding the hottest cards.

With COVID-19 effectively shutting down paper Magic events, many retailers are struggling to restock popular cards. They’ve responded to the shrink in market supply in different ways.

A couple weeks ago, Star City Games tweeted something that caught my eye:

I’ll admit Star City Games’ buylist wasn’t on my radar as one to check frequently. Their buylist was once best in class when it came to value and hot cards, many years ago; I sold to them regularly circa 2014. But the past few years have seen retailers like Card Kingdom and ABUGames really storm to the forefront in offering the best value for cards.

Then you’ve got ChannelFireball boasting their “buylist bonanza” on Twitter, even showcasing it as their Twitter banner.

Separately, I’ve noticed ABUGames and Card Kingdom adjust their buy prices upward in response to shrinking market supply.

One question remains: who is best in class? This week I’ll look at a few key cards across multiple formats in order to evaluate just this question!

Category 1: Legacy/Vintage

I mostly deal in older cards, so it’s probably no surprise that my inclination is to start here. But there’s a greater reason for this: many cards in this category are accelerating upward. Don’t take my word for it, though. Check out these numbers (near mint prices cited):

There are dozens of cards worth tracking here, but I tried to pick a fair representation of popular Legacy and Vintage cards. I’ve bolded the highest dollar amount, by card, for both cash and store credit numbers. As of Sunday, June 28th, it looks like Card Kingdom is still your best bet for buylisting older cards. It’s nice to see Star City Games and ChannelFireball in the ballpark, though…that wasn’t always the case.

ABUGames still offers more store credit for cards than any other vendor, but keep in mind the caveat that their sell prices are equally inflated. If I had one of each of these cards to sell and a choice of vendors to sell to, I’d pick Card Kingdom for either cash or less-inflated store credit.

Also, it’s critical to keep in mind how these stores downgrade their offers due to condition. For example, Card Kingdom would pay 80% of their near mint buy price for a moderately played (i.e. “VG”) Underground Sea, equaling $272 in cash. Star City Games lists their buy prices for lower conditions individually, and they currently offer $250 for a played copy. ABUGames also lists unique numbers by condition and offers $224.07 for played Underground Seas.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

ChannelFireball downgrades older cards most severely, offering just 25% of their posted buy price; suddenly their best-in-class $350 number becomes a worst-in-class $87.50. Who in 2020 is going to sell a Revised Underground Sea for $87.50?

Whether cards are near mint or played, I’m sticking with Card Kingdom with this category.

Category 2: Commander Staples

If I had to guess, I’d say that Commander is the most popular paper Magic format in a world where large tournaments aren’t taking place. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see some of the hottest Commander staples rising in price. Players still want to build new decks and battle their friends, but vendors are having a tough time restocking these cards—older ones are especially difficult due to the smaller supply.

But which vendor of the big four is best to sell to? Let’s look at some numbers!

Store credit numbers follow a similar trend to the Legacy/Vintage list earlier—ABUGames offers best-in-class store credit for cards, but their inflated prices need to be taken into account.

Cash-wise, there’s no clear-cut winner this time. ABUGames surprisingly offers the best cash price for two of the cards (near mint condition). ChannelFireball is also competitive alongside Card Kingdom. Only Star City Games lags the pack here.

But again, keep in mind ChannelFireball’s most severe condition pay scale. Anything older than Eighth Edition is going to see aggressive payment cuts unless it’s near mint.

Meanwhile, Card Kingdom uses dollar value to determine how much to cut based on condition (with Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited being an exception).

Comparing these two lists, however, we see that Card Kingdom is minimally the same if not more generous than ChannelFireball when it comes to played cards.

Net, for this category, if you’ve got near mint cards and are after cash or store credit you’ll want to compare Card Kingdom, ABUGames, and ChannelFireball’s offers. If your cards are played, however, your best bet is ABUGames and Card Kingdom.

Category 3: Modern and Pioneer Staples

I haven’t dealt in Modern or Pioneer cards in quite some time. There was a moment of hype when Pioneer first began because it was viewed as a less-powerful, wide-open format as compared to Modern. Since then, however, I think things have calmed down. This is partly because these two formats rely heavily on paper events to drive demand, and there just aren’t many of those going on right now.

Still, some of the multi-format staples that see significant play in Modern and Pioneer are worth real money. Let’s compare some top played cards in the two formats to see which vendor pays best:

Again, ABUGames’ inflated store credit comes into play. But if cash is your end game, there really is no clear winner here. Each vendor has at least one card where they offer the highest dollar amount. For the most part, all cash offers are within 10-15% of each other (besides Dig Through Time) so you won’t be selling yourself short if you pick one vendor and stick to them. In this case, there really is no clear winner.

The key takeaway here is that if you have Modern and Pioneer cards to sell, check each vendor individually and consider condition of your cards before choosing a retailer. Rest assured you won’t be missing out on too much money by selling all your cards to a single vendor. It may not be worth the extra effort and cost in shipping multiple buylist offers.

Category 4: Standard Staples

Thanks to Magic Arena, I know more about Standard now than I have known in nearly a decade! I know all about the predominance of Growth Spiral-driven decks, and I have developed a casual fondness of the Rakdos Sacrifice deck—it must be something about winning with a 1/1 cat that I find entertaining.

Alas, I have written at great lengths previously about how Standard card prices may be suppressed due to the lack of paper events taking place. This is especially the case when looking at Ikoria prices, which all seem deflated—perhaps this is due to their reduced impact on the Standard metagame? Still, those Triomes should be worth more given their ubiquity in Standard (and probably Commander)!

In any event, here’s a breakdown of vendor buy prices on the hottest Standard staples:

The dichotomy between Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath and the rest of cards in Standard is baffling. That one card is worth about four times as much as some of the other most-played cards in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

In any event, it’s no surprise to see Card Kingdom is competitive with their buy prices yet again. What is surprising is how well Star City Games performed in this category, offering the best buy price on three of the cards! ChannelFireball only had the top buy price on one card. I would not advise shipping Standard cards to ABUGames based on their values, unless you’re really eager for some of their store credit.

Net, if you’re selling Standard cards I recommend checking Card Kingdom and Star City Games for the best deals. ChannelFireball may be competitive as well; I guess if you want a chance to win a Black Lotus as part of ChannelFireball’s buylist bonanza, you could justify sending some Standard staples their way.

Wrapping It Up

Obviously this analysis is incomplete; it’s only a snapshot across formats. To do a more robust assessment of buylists, you’d have to expand the list of cards significantly. A complete analysis was not my intent with this week’s article.

Instead, I’m trying to get a feel for whether or not it’s worth shopping cards around across the four major online retailers. Up until recently, I only focused on ABUGames and Card Kingdom when I wanted to sell/trade cards. But recent tweets from ChannelFireball and Star City Games grabbed my attention, so I thought I’d give them another look. You also could consider MTG Seattle, which offers very competitive numbers if your cards are minty fresh. I have minimal experience in dealing with them, however.

Card Kingdom is still best in class overall—especially when dealing in Reserved List Legacy and Vintage staples (especially if they aren't mint). If you have newer cards from Commander, Modern, Pioneer, and Standard, then you’re best off shopping these around at Star City Games and ChannelFireball as well. They each have pockets of cards where they offer the best value, and their condition downgrades are less severe.

Be careful when shipping played cards to ChannelFireball. Their downgrades on older cards are especially harsh. Also, don’t forget that ABUGames’ store credit is inflated, so their “best-in-class” numbers are misleading. Unless you find something fairly priced on their website, your best bet is to discount all ABUGames credit numbers by 20-30% in order to make for apples to apples comparisons with the other retailers.

This is an interesting time to buy and sell cards as vendor inventory dries up. Restocking at major events just can’t happen as long as COVID-19 is around. Since this virus is here to stay for at least a few more months, I expect pricing trends to continue in the same direction. This could make for some attractive exit points if you’re looking to raise cash. Keep a close eye on trends, and make sure you shop around because multiple vendors are upping their game in their pursuit of your cards!

Budget-Focused: Four Cards With Long Term Potential in Pioneer!

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Hey everyone, and welcome to another week of budget-focused Magic! I wanted to start focusing on some Pioneer cards that have potential to spike down the line. I had some on my list that have already spiked in value and did not want to have you all potentially miss another opportunity. Today, and the next few articles, we're going to be talking about some low CMC cards that are (in my opinion) flying under the radar.

Ceremonious Rejection and its outlook

To kick things off, we are going to start with an instant spell that deserves even more looks due to Pioneer. Ceremonious Rejection is a card that should be considered for a good portion of blue sideboards. It is niche given the fact you can only target colorless spells. That being said, you can hit Eldrazi, artifacts, and other non-creature spells. In this format all the above are used and some resulting in wincons, such as Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Inverter of Truth. Depending on your build, you might be able to get away with throwing one in your mainboard as a silver bullet in case you come across a colorless deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ceremonious Rejection

The current price for this is coming in at $0.50 for the non-foil and $3.01 for the foil copies. This card for whatever reason hasn’t quite found a home just yet in pioneer, but it most certainly should long-term. It is already used in both Modern and Vintage formats, and if it is used there it should be in Pioneer at some point. Considering the high number of potent colorless spells used in the format, it just blows my mind it is not at least a 2-of in most blue sideboards. Keep an eye on this one going forward, as it most certainly has room to grow over time!

Infernal Reckoning and keeping an eye on colorless spells

Continuing the route of colorless spells, another card to note here is Infernal Reckoning. This one is coming in at $0.50 for non-foils, $1.85 for the foils, and $1.58 for the prerelease copies. This was one when Pioneer was becoming a thing it would be used heavily against Smuggler's Copter decks, among others. Both this and Ceremonious Rejection were answers to it, but people still felt it was too much for the format, unfortunately. This made for these two to be a little less appealing in the format, overall.

History has a way of repeating itself in some regard, so do not be surprised if another colorless card is created with great upside. We should also note here that the format is still trying to find itself and we should not sleep on the fact that colorless spells can be a thing in the future. Nothing else is more appealing to players than a low-cmc answer to a threat! Infernal Reckoning still has room to grow such as Ceremonious Rejection and should be considered as a buy at the current rate.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Infernal Reckoning

Deafening Silence

The next card we have is one that surprises me still that it is not worth more. For budget-minded players, this is one to certainly pick up while it is low, and that card is Deafening Silence. This was one that for sure was going to be a $3.00 minimum when it came out, or so one would have thought. Here we are today looking at the current price of $0.42 for the non-foil and $2.05 for the foil copies. This is a steal at the current price, and it is being used outside of Pioneer format, seeing play in Legacy, Vintage, Modern, and Commander. Being used in basically every format is nothing to scoff at.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deafening Silence

Looking at where this thing can be used, the easy answer is “any white build”. In Pioneer we could easily sideboard this in any white build, and even mainboard in others. Sram, Senior Edificer decks can benefit from this if going against any deck utilizing non-creature tactics. White weenies are another deck style that is big in the current meta and can utilize this, especially against burn decks to slow them down a bit.

Those are just two examples that jump right out as they are big in the current meta. This card is also the Achilles heel to Lotus Field decks. If you pop this out and they have no response, you can very well win out if they do not get their wincon quickly. Closing on this one it should be very close to the $3.00(minimum) range long-term especially if it gets used more in Pioneer.

Cindervines

Last, we are going to be looking at an enchantment that one would think would be worth more than its current price. Cindervines is another great card that gets used in other eternal formats such as Modern, Legacy, and Commander. The current price on this is $1.44 for the non-foils, $3.51 for the foils, and $3.06 for the prerelease copies. For where this is being used, it should be sitting around the $5.00 range for the non-foils. Though it only pings when our opponents cast non-creature spells, we can use it to rid of potential enchantment or artifact threats.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cindervines

There are some Gruul Aggro decks that have been popping up in the top eight as of late, and this one features Cindervines in the board.

Gruul Aggro by citizenofnerdvana

Creatures

4 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Elvish Mystic
2 Ghor-Clan Rampager
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
1 Klothys, God of Destiny
3 Legion Warboss
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Lovestruck Beast
1 Rhonas the Indomitable
3 Steel Leaf Champion

Instants and Sorceries

4 Collected Company
2 Crater's Claws

Other Spells

2 Embercleave

Lands

8 Forest
2 Game Trail
6 Mountain
2 Rootbound Crag
4 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

2 Cindervines
1 Fry
3 Heroic Intervention
3 Lava Coil
2 Reclamation Sage
4 Scavenging Ooze

Outside of Gruul Aggro, it has potential as a sideboard piece in other green decks that have room to utilize dual lands. Although the casting cost makes it less appealing, one cannot deny the upside it holds once it hits the board.

To close out this week’s article, I just wanted to let you all know to keep an eye on all lower-cmc cards that show potential. I know that might kind of go without saying, but sometimes the obvious gets overlooked. Cards that look out of place or may not have a home yet are also worth keeping an eye on, as Wizards may produce something that will compliment them in the months to come. I hope you all enjoyed this week’s article and be sure to come back for the next one!

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