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Karn, the Great Creator in Colorless Eldrazi

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A year ago, Colorless Eldrazi Stompy received a potent new tool in Zhalfirin Void. I described the card's potential for the archetype in detail, cursing Karn, Scion of Urza under my breath in the intro paragraph. In War of the Spark, the deck is all set to receive yet another potential game-changer, if a less certain one, in an updated, upgraded version of that four-mana walker: Karn, the Great Creator. This article assesses Karn's implications for Colorless and proposes a preliminary decklist.

Karn in Colorless

From my seat, the most intriguing War card spoiled so far is Karn, the Great Creator. Karn has promising applications in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, my competitive deck of choice, where the walker appears to solve a number of problems the archetype encounters.

Boundless Utility

Karn's most obvious draw is the utility he provides. CES already runs a suite of niche-use artifacts in the sideboard to help with certain matchups; nonpermanent spells, often being colored, are rarely an option for us. The planeswalker affords us access to those bullets as early as Game 1 of a match. To run Karn, we'll want to tweak the sideboard so it offers maximum versatility.

One of the juiciest targets to fish out is Relic of Progenitus. Relic has been a fixture of the deck's post-Eye incarnation since I first brewed it three years ago, as it substantially disrupts graveyard strategies while recycling our own copies of Eternal Scourge. This latter function is more of a late-game one, and so gels with Karn's hefty mana cost. Since we essentially have access to mainboard Relics with the new walker, we can finally nix the clunky Scavenger Grounds for better lands, and stand to further improve our already positive midrange matchups.

Modern features some strategies that are very difficult for us to defeat. Chief among those is Whir Prison, which sets up what amounts to a hard-lock with Ensnaring Bridge protected by Welding Jar. Since Karn shuts off activated artifact abilities, Jar no longer works, forcing Whir to search up Pithing Needle to counteract the Ratchet Bomb we now have access to before siding.

The flashiest Karn target, though, is Mycosynth Lattice. The walker's static ability combines with the artifact's to prevent opponents from activating abilities of their creatures or lands—including, yes, "T: add R." With enemies locked out of mana for the rest of the game, overcoming whatever board state they've assembled should be trivial, especially with Karn helping get us to what we need. Opponents will therefore try to deal with the walker ASAP, taking pressure off us and perhaps baiting some otherwise suspect attacks.

Wishboard Options

So that's Relic and Ratchet. But what other artifacts should we run in the sideboard? Since artifacts still don't give us any head-turning sweepers, I think the wishboard package should be as small as possible, giving us space for ample removal spells. Spatial Contortion seems like our best option right now, with Gut Shot following close behind. But I definitely want at least one Gut Shot to randomly hit planeswalkers with, as well as one Surgical Extraction to blow out anyone discarding our Eternal Scourge or trying to reanimate Phoenix.

In other words, the artifacts we elect to run as wishboard targets should play multiple roles, and do so well. Here's what I've auditioned so far, sorted by apparent usefulness.

Low-tier:

  • Tormod's Crypt. While usually worse than Relic, Crypt does offer us the utility of Karn acting as Bojuka Bog when we need it to, or coming down and immediately nuking an opponent's graveyard. But I don't think we need this effect on turn three or four, which is when access to Crypt could ever matter; later on, we don't mind paying to crack Relic for the cantrip. (I would probably play Zuran Orb were it Modern-legal.)
  • Liquimetal Coating. A sort of mini-Mycosynth Lattice, Coating turns enemy lands into artifacts so Karn can tick up to destroy them. It's slower and less decisive than Lattice, but we don't have to worry about finding the mana to cast it. Coating does monopolize our Karn activation, making it harder to find time for fishing out more bullets.
  • Darksteel Citadel. The purpose of Citadel would be to guarantee a land drop for next turn, specifically for Reality Smasher, regardless of whether Karn survives the turn cycle. We probably already have four lands for Thought-Knot, and as we'll soon see, other options are better for setting up a late-game mana advantage.
  • Ghostfire Blade. A card I've considered before, Ghostfire turbo-charges our Scourges and manlands on the cheap. But it was hard to run main because of tension with Chalice of the Void. We can now search it when Chalice is off the battlefield, though I'm not sure it's high-impact enough to warrant a slot.

Mid-tier:

  • Damping Sphere/Grafdiggers' Cage/Torpor Orb. These hosers are all great in their respective matchups, but only when dropped early; a turn five Cage isn't going to prevent many creatures from reanimating! Similarly, Sphere might prove too slow against Storm and Tron. But I can see Torpor Orb retaining late-game usefulness against Humans, and maybe our other disruption will buy us the time needed for these artifacts to do their job from the wishboard.
  • Spellskite. Similarly, Karn into Skite seems a tad slow against the aggro-combo decks that struggle versus the Horror. But I like its ability to protect our other lock pieces, such as Chalice, as well as Karn himself—or that killer Smasher we've sandbagged in hand.
  • Batterskull. Perhaps a solid anti-aggro option, my beef with Batterskull is its mana cost. And everything answers this card. With Karn resolved and active, we're not going to have much mana to throw around bouncing, recasting, or equipping Skull, which makes me think the card might as well die to Fatal Push. That said, it's possible Skull promises the tempo swing we need in aggro matchups. Wurmcoil Engine is another option, but I think it's too pricey.
  • Lightning Greaves. The boots basically grant us "emblem of haste" for two mana, which could help us turn the tide in a mid-game tempo war or fade sorcery-speed removal on our critical creatures. Compared with Ghostfire, haste is better than +2/+2 on Scourge in many matchups, and costing 0 to equip is huge for us. I've made no secret of my affinity for Lightning Greaves, and am eager to try it in Modern again.

High-tier:

  • Relic of Progenitus/Ratchet Bomb. We've covered these two already, though I will mention that the single Bomb can be exiled by Relic and then recycled through Karn in longer games.
  • Sorcerous Spyglass. While Needle effects are occasionally great for this deck, they are also bad in multiples, and unreliable in small numbers. I even went so far as to cut Spyglass entirely from my Regionals list last year. But with Karn in the picture, Spyglass is all upside. Looking at the hand has applications of its own; we can now check for Settle the Wreckage or a stray counterspell before slamming Smasher for the win.
  • Crucible of Worlds. Crucible, too, is immensely powerful in the right scenario, but woefully anemic in others. Karn removes the guesswork and grants us access when we want it. Of course, the artifact's chief purpose is to rebuy Ghost Quarter so we can decimate an opponent's manabase or manlands to keep the pressure on. Still, there are some neat plays we can make with Crucible on the field, such as Quartering our own Temple and replaying that Temple from the grave to generate extra mana, or doing the same with Zhalfirin Void to net extra scry triggers. In fact, tutoring Crucible with Quarter in play guarantees that we'll make land drops up to six without needing to draw more: turn four tap out for Karn; turn five drop Crucible, Quarter our land for a wastes, play that same land; turn six play Quarter from the 'yard, slam Lattice.
  • Mycosynth Lattice. Enables the one-card combo we've heard so much about. Wurmcoil might be too pricey, but it also doesn't end the game on most board states. The threat of Lattice pressures opponents to deal with Karn, and we need to be able to adequately punish those who fail to interact.

Strategic Impacts

Besides tutoring up situational sideboard cards when we need them, Karn alters our strategic profile. For one, we no longer have dead cards. Excess lands, Serum Powder, and Simian Spirit Guide help ramp us into Mycosynth Lattice, or else into whatever artifact we grab with a freshly-deployed Karn. Powder can even go on the offensive, as Karn's +1 turns it into a Wild Nacatl for the turn cycle.

Some of our tougher matchups catch a break, too. The Karn-plus-Lattice plan is extremely threatening for UW decks, which can pose issues for us in the late-game.  And anyone relying on activated abilities of artifacts is in for a beating, as Karn doubles as mainboard copies of Stony Silence. Hardened Scales and Whir Prison are two major, difficult matchups that improve with this addition.

All that upside comes with one critical drawback: a less consistent aggressive plan. Karn doesn't impact the board the way our other cards do, and is therefore worse in racing situations. Even when there's a bullet in our sideboard for a given situation, that bullet will take quite a while to enter the battlefield. Matchup-wise, then, Karn hurts our odds against linear aggro, combo, and aggro-combo decks, unless those decks rely on activated artifact abilities. I imagine this caveat will make Karn sub-optimal in certain fields.

Attempting the Great Creation

With all that smoky exposition clearing, we start to see a decklist forming. No dead cards? No need for Smuggler's Copter. Extra points in grindy matchups? Guess we can cut Matter Reshaper. Expensive permanent incoming? Let's go back up to 23 lands. Aggro-combo becoming harder to beat? Cue a return to Endless One.

The math led me here:

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
3 Endless One
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Planeswalkers

2 Karn, the Great Creator

Artifacts

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Serum Powder

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
3 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
4 Ghost Quarter
3 Mutavault
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Mycosynth Lattice
1 Torpor Orb
1 Lightning Greaves
3 Spatial Contortion
1 Gut Shot
1 Surgical Extraction

I initially tried 3 Karn, which felt way too clunky. And I'll need some testing against Tron to see if Damping Sphere is dearly missed there, but I think between Chalice and Karn shutting off their cantrip rocks (and the latter, Oblivion Stone) and the set of Quarters, that matchup shouldn't be too tough. For now, Orb and Greaves are the sideboard flex spots, and may just be replaced by the fourth Spatial and another Gut if no other artifacts impress me. Finally, I went with Gemstone Caverns as the 23rd land; I always did like having a third copy, and casting Karn early is another perk of starting on the play, one way or the other.

Oh, I Just Karn't Wait to Be King

Izzet Phoenix? Dredge? London Mulligan? And now Karn, the Great Creator? 2019 is shaping up to be a fantastic year for Colorless Eldrazi Stompy. Which War cards have you brewing? Drop me a line in the comments.

Tales from the Buylist #8 – Commander Moves the Needle

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War of the Spark hype is getting very real! Already we're seeing movement on cards based on what was spoiled, and a lot of speculative buyouts based on revealed information about the set in general.

Atraxa, Praetors' Voice is currently undergoing a buyout, and we're likely not close to a settling price yet. This buyout was spurred on by the spoiler weekend during the Mythic Invitational at PAX East, with the announced return of proliferate.

Proliferate

Atraxa is destined to sit upwards of $60 should this demand continue, especially considering her relatively low print run. We did see the card reprinted in Commander Anthology Vol. II, but not too many more copies were made available from this product. For those who were willing to jump in as soon as Flux Channeler was spoiled, it wasn't hard to pick up a good percentage of the total population of Atraxa. Many Commander-exclusive cards are seeing a lot of pressure, and Atraxa is no different.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atraxa, Praetors' Voice

As a Praetor, the card comes equipped with casual appeal, and could likely have connected items in the other four on-color Praetors for those looking to build flavorful decks. I'm thinking that the more competitive-minded players will be focused on going all in with the proliferate madness, choosing to abuse mechanics like infect to win the game quickly. Proliferate is an incredibly strong mechanic if you're able to distribute counters across the board evenly, and cards that do this will be worth examining going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Contagion Engine

On the subject of proliferate, there are several cards that could be subject to demand in the near future. Contagion Engine is one of the more notable cards that can repeatedly use the mechanic, and will synergize with an artifact strategy in general. The added bonus of -1/-1 counters across the board to weaken your opponent's creatures and keep you alive is a bonus side effect, and could lead to a board wipe with consecutive activations.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inexorable Tide

Similar to Contagion Engine, Inexorable Tide will be an auto-include in counter-based Atraxa decks. It was most recently reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. It's sitting at a relatively low price of around $3, given the possible demand it will see in the near future. There is already a small uptick from its earlier $2 price, and it could likely hit as high as $5 or more going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Decimator Web

Kind of a spicier pick here, but I think Decimator Web has largely flown under the radar for a strategy like this. Seeing this artifact resolve and activated is pretty mean, and you'll hope not to be the unlucky recipient of it. The card was only printed in Mirrodin Besieged, and foils could be an awesome pickup for explosive gains should it catch on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mycosynth Lattice

Mycosynth Lattice was recently reprinted in Battlebond, and if we can take the recent Karn, The Great Creator spoiler to be real, this enables you to tutor any card from outside the game you own into your hand. This will be significant for Commander play mostly, and we're already seeing a lot of these go out the door. There's still room to get in under the $20 mark, but I would not be very keen on picking these up past that point.

Planeswalkers Matter

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knowledge Pool

I'm noticing a pattern here. Most of the cards I've mentioned above are Mirrodin- and Scars of Mirrodin-block artifacts with absurd effects. Knowledge Pool is seeing a small uptick from below a dollar currently, and could end up much, much higher. We've recently seen Modern chatter about this card when Saffron Olive covered it in his Against the Odds series, noting its game locking interaction with Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir. The printing of the new three-drop planeswalker Teferi, Time Raveler offers a similar way to set up the lock.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Chain Veil

The Chain Veil continues its upward trajectory we've seen since the announcement of War of the Spark, though is starting to slow down a bit. The appeal of multiple planeswalker activations will keep pushing this card to new heights. I think this card is destined to pass the $30 price point, especially if it dodges this year's Commander print cycle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doubling Season

It's always worth taking a look at Doubling Season when you're talking about planeswalkers, proliferate, or really any reference to EDH in general. This card is somewhat of a signpost for Commander-related finance, and will always be a relevant player regardless of the number of printings it sees.

It continues to climb towards what I estimate will be $50 a copy as a fair market price, and likely around $60+ at most retailers. I don't necessarily recommend going deep on picking these up, but I wouldn't be getting rid of them either.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deploy the Gatewatch

I talked about Deploy the Gatewatch in my article All About Eldritch Moon weeks ago, and I believe we still haven't quite reached the ceiling for cards like this. Oath of Nissa and Call the Gatewatch are in a similar situation, and will likely be more desirable once packs of the new set are available.

Effects like this play nicely with the new walkers we'll be receiving, and the downshifted rarity of War of the Spark's cast will give players on a budget a chance to actually build this strategy. What's more, having an even wider selection of playable planeswalkers will allow these decks more flexibility in the walkers they choose.

A Brave New World

Last up, I'd like to leave you all with some food for thought. While this spoiler season is not too dissimilar to ones we've seen before, I'd like to note that Magic: The Gathering has never had more eyes on it than now. The Mythic Invitational was a huge event that brought our game to the front page of Twitch, and the War of the Spark teaser trailer has gone practically viral. At this time it has 6.7 million views, and will likely keep climbing.

Considering these things, I think many of our expectations of the market are about to undergo a shift of sorts. Arena will eventually be out of the open beta stage and will be a full release, likely with a ton of hyped advertising to go along with it. It's an exciting time to be involved in Magic, and I think a lot of new, unprecedented investment opportunities will be opening up soon.

Pickups

  • Knowledge Pool
  • Decimator Web
  • Inexorable Tide
  • Mycosynth Lattice

Holds

  • Atraxa, Praetors' Voice
  • The Chain Veil
  • Doubling Season
  • Call the Gatewatch
  • Oath of Nissa
  • Deploy the Gatewatch

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

Metagame Tide’s Changing: GP Calgary

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Nothing lasts forever; the mighty will eventually fall; time erases all wounds; change is the only constant. All such platitudes mean for Modern is that one deck can only remain on top of the format for so long. Eventually, the format either adapts to the deck, there's a structural change to the metagame, or the banhammer drops. There was movement in the latest GP data which suggests that such a change is happening, although it is still too early to be certain.

This is not too surprising. When Grixis Death's Shadow's reign ended, it did so with a whimper rather than a roar; despite months of dominating Modern, the emergence of anti-decks, and calls for a bannings, it just faded away in fall 2017. It's been just another deck since then. Humans was the deck of 2018 until Spirits rose to dethrone it in late summer. And now, Izzet Phoenix has been crushing tournaments for months. GP Calgary marks the first big Modern tournament where Izzet Phoenix wasn't a significant portion of the Top 8. What this means isn't clear yet, but I'm hoping it means that the firebird's reign is coming to an end.

Day 2 Metagame

The defining feature of Izzet Phoenix Modern has been its huge Day 2 numbers. The GP weekend saw Phoenix average 21% of the Day 2 population, and previous tournaments showed similar numbers.  This result is significant for any Modern deck, but the real kicker has been the gap between Phoenix and the next deck.

Deck NameTotal %
Other26.14
Izzet Phoenix 17.65
Burn9.15
Mono-Green Tron8.50
Dredge6.54
Grixis Shadow6.54
UW Control5.88
The Rock5.23
Humans5.23
Amulet Titan3.27
Hardened Scales3.27
Spirits2.61

Calgary's metagame is quite a change from last time. Izzet Phoenix is not only not the top category, but it's well below the previous percentage. Instead, "other" is the most populous category. Plainly: players were more likely to hit a rogue deck on Day 2 than a given established one.

More interesting for me is Burn and Tron beating out Dredge. For the past several months, Dredge has been following in Phoenix's wake as not necessarily the number two deck, but typically close behind and second in Top 8s. Being this far behind Phoenix is a notable change. I'm also gratified to see Burn doing well. In a world full of cantrips, Eidolon of the Great Revel is a huge beating.

The other thing to highlight is the lack of Whir Prison. Despite being billed as a Phoenix killer, it failed to warrant its own category on this metagame table. It's possible that Canada just has a prisonless metagame, but I suspect the deck's weaknesses are to blame. I've roasted the deck for being mostly air and weak to hate, but like all prison decks, Whir is also weak to Tron. There are simply too many cards that can break its locks, and given the high Tron turnout, I'm not surprised it didn't succeed.

A final thing to note is that the three most interactive decks in Modern are right after Dredge in the standings. The top deck may be uninteractive, but as I've constantly harped on, that just makes interaction and answer decks better. All it takes is adapting and running the right answers.

The Top 8

A natural result of Phoenix's Day 2 dominance has been huge numbers of Top 8's. It's statistically unlikely for every member of the highest population group to lose, and with population figures so high compared to the other decks, it was inevitable that many Phoenix players made Top 8 over the past few months. Calgary's Day 2 may not have been quite as skewed as previous GPs, but the warp was still present, so the logical assumption would be for another Phoenix-heavy Top 8. However, that's not the case.

Deck NameTotal #
Jund Breach Titan1
Grixis Death's Shadow1
Izzet Phoenix1
Humans1
Dredge1
The Rock1
UW Control1
Blue Moon1

A Top 8 of eight different decks: it doesn't get much more Modern than that! Despite months of the prevailing rhetoric pegging Izzet Phoenix the best deck, Modern's diversity is holding strong. The bracket was also filled with some interesting decks. I've never seen Jund Breach Titan before, and I'm a little dubious. It obviously worked well for Attila Fur, but given the metagame I don't see why Fatal Push and Assassin's Trophy are better for this deck than either running extra Anger of the Gods or Abrade. The sideboard Slaughter Games and graveyard hate I can understand, but stretching the mana for a couple removal spells is very strange to me.

And then there's Blue Moon. I can't remember the last time this deck made waves, especially one full of as many singletons as Brian Willms's deck, although we've seen it win a bit online. I actually suspect the deck started life as a control-oriented Izzet Phoenix deck and simply dropped the Phoenixes at some point. As some have said about Izzet Phoenix, Brian's deck is really a Thing in the Ice deck, and the Blood Moons look like incidental inclusions. Maindeck Spell Snare, Flame Slash, and Ral, Izzet Viceroy certainly seem like cards meant to win Thing mirrors.

The Complication

The Top 8 only having a single Izzet Phoenix deck certainly suggests that the metagame has moved on from Phoenix, and the drop off has begun. That suggestion is premature. Tempting though it may be to declare Calgary proof that the format has adapted and the reign of the firebird has ended, some confounding factors with GP Calgary may not make it the best indication in light of available, contradictory data.

Is Izzet Fading?

Failing to hit 18% of Day 2 is a significant drop from the previous several weeks of data. However, recall that those huge numbers are a recent phenomenon. Phoenix has been around for months, but its Day 2 domination was unique to March. Before then, Phoenix was only putting up solid Top 8 numbers and winning events. In this light, Calgary is more return to form than true deviation.

Also, in this case, a ~3% drop off is hardly earthshaking. If Phoenix had started off at 5% and dropped to 2%, we'd have a more significant decline percentage-wise. However, it's a move of ~21% down to ~18%. I'd still call that a dominating metagame share. It's also still 8.5% higher than the next individual result. It would be disingenuous at best to say that Phoenix's decline this weekend indicates a relinquishing of position.

There is the point that Phoenix was behind the "other" category by 8.49%. That's roughly the same as its lead over Burn. By itself, this doesn't mean much, but recall that it's not the first time that the highest results were Izzet Phoenix and "other." What exactly this means is hard to say, since Modern has always been a diverse format. Butt this rise in "other" might indicate that Phoenix isn't dominating the format like previous heavy hitters did. It could also be that players are drifting away from pure Izzet Phoenix now that the deck is known and their metagame niche is too crowded.

...Or Simply Fluctuating?

It's equally possible that Phoenix's numbers are just natural variance. Each event is different, and there was a relative lack of Izzet players in Calgary. Izzet Phoenix averaged 21% two weeks ago, but exhibited significant variance between the three events. Calgary's 17.65% isn't far off from Tampa's 19.5%, and probably within the margin of error for the sample size. This slight dip relative to previous numbers might then prove non-indicative of the actual trend.

Our uncertainty is made worse by questions about the starting population. If Calgary's initial attendance was reported, I couldn't find it, but I would guess that it wasn't anything special. From what I understand, Calgary is not exactly a tourist mecca; it's also early spring, Calgary is quite far north, and when even those in lower latitudes had snow last weekend, I imagine that many otherwise interested players weren't willing to risk the trip.

Matters are further muddled considering that PAX East, and with it the Mythic Invitational, happened on the same weekend. I enjoy playing GPs as much as anyone, but all things being equal, I'd never pick that over PAX. I can't prove that watching the Invitational or attending-related issues actually kept players away from Calgary, but pondering these factors does raise enough questions that I wouldn't consider Calgary a good data point.

A Counterpoint

There is also the fact that Calgary's main event is only one data point. That's never enough data to draw any meaningful conclusion. The result is also undercut by another data point: the Calgary MCQ's Top 8 looks more like what we've come to expect in the Phoenix era.

Deck NameTotal #
Izzet Phoenix2
Dredge2
Humans1
UW Control1
Grixis Death's Shadow1
Mono-Green Tron1

Phoenix closed out the finals, and Dredge was the second-highest performer. That's pretty consistent with previous events. An MCQ may not be as high-profile or high-attendance as the GP main event, but it does reinforce Phoenix's potency. Taken alongside the previous results and compared to the GP results, it lends credence to the idea that Calgary was a fluke. The circumstances and pilots may have just been wrong this time, rather than the metagame actually adapting.

Adaptation via Playstyle

If the metagame is adapting, how is it happening? I only have the Top 8 decklists from the GP and MCQ to work with, but I'm not seeing much new tech or deck adaptation. Austin Anderson's UW Control deck is the only Phoenix-ready deck on paper, with Terminus and Settle the Wreckage as sweepers, Detention Sphere as backup, and Celestial Purge in the sideboard. The UW deck in the MCQ was still running Supreme Verdict, although it arguably compensated with a full set of Relic of Progenitus maindeck. Otherwise, it's mostly tech we've seen before or deck configurations that haven't changed in months.

It has been suggested to me that the real adaptation isn't happening in terms of cardboard tech, but tactical. Players have had plenty of time to refine their play against Phoenix and figure out how to win. If the Top 8 is indicative of the trends throughout the tournament, it would suggest that players are learning to modify their responses to Phoenix to better answer the actual problem rather than trying to exploit a perceived weakness; for example, the perhaps overblown reaction of running mainboard Surgical Extraction seems to have been nixed by all but Phoenix itself.

History Repeats

Adapting playstyles rather than deckbuilding, understanding how a deck actually works, focusing on that rather than on the threats is a repeat of Grixis Death's Shadow's trajectory in Modern. There, players learned to accept that they would be hit with discard early. This led them to stop keeping speculative hands and just play more robust decks. Once its attack became less potent, Grixis naturally fell off.

Maybe Modern is finally getting over its firebird blitz as the format registers the deck's fragility. Izzet Phoenix burns through lots of cards, but there's never any guarantee that Phoenix will hit the bin. It will see Phoenix eventually, and probably several copies, but to reanimate those early demands Faithless Looting or a lucky Thought Scour. Meanwhile, Thing in the Ice is actually controllable, and thus a far more reliable plan. Therefore, it's the actual threat and power of the deck, as hinted at by Blue Moon's surprise success.

Insufficient Data
In the end, there's not enough data to determine whether Calgary is the start of a meaningful change or simply a normal fluctuation. I am hopeful that players are adapting and the metagame will return to the health that the Top 8 shows still exists, but we need to wait and see more data before confirmation. In any case, we'll keep you posted on Izzet Phoenix's developments as Modern continues to evolve.

Learning from Missed Opportunities

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I’ve heard the phrase “FOMO” before, most recently in QS's Insider Discord. It’s a concept that follows us throughout life, and it has affected everyone differently. For those of you that don’t know, FOMO stands for Fear Of Missing Out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Opportunity

Let’s take my own experiences as an example. When I was much younger (between about 5 and 8) I had such a hard time falling asleep night after night after night. I would go to bed and shut my door, but I could hear my parents in the living room laughing to something on TV or occasionally the sounds of Mario looking for Peach from my old NES. It would honestly take me until the early morning hours sometimes to fall asleep, and that would take its toll on me the next day. I was sad and scared that I was missing out on something that my parents were experiencing, so much so that it would affect my health from lack of sleep. This is just one experience in an entire world of people, but we can learn and grow from it.

I’m sure many of you are asking how this applies to MTG finance. There are many people I’ve seen, even Insiders (and including myself sometimes), who have FOMO with Magic. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but it can put a wrench in our cogs if we're not careful.  Let’s look at some examples of cards that have spiked to get a better idea.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Torrential Gearhulk

Torrential Gearhulk is a card that started out pretty low and ran under the radar until it was seen on camera and in many decks at Pro Tour Kaladesh. Watching someone hold up six mana to cast it while having a Disallow in their graveyard was pretty cool, and for some reason, that concept hadn’t quite hit the majority of the community until that moment.

It was around the $5 mark, then started to rumble towards $8. No one thought it would see a penny over $10 or $11. On Friday, October 14, folks started hearing rumors that pros were playing it as a four-of in any deck with blue. The very next day, it was seeing prices of $15 minimum. It peaked just under $40 before the weekend was over, and slowly started to settle around $18 before two more spikes over the following months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

Arclight Phoenix is the talk of the meta right now in almost every format. Believe it or not, this card could be obtained at one point in time for $2 or less. I even know a few folks who picked them up in bulk for a brief time.

Rumors started and whispers were heard, and slowly this card moved its way from $2 to about the $5-to-$8 range. There was a lot of talk about how this card wouldn’t hit $10, and if it did, it would only be temporary (another article on this later). There were pros and YouTubers who were trying to break this card with awkward combos involving Pact of the Titan and strange storm brews. It hit $10 and plateaued a bit around $12. The time to buy for maximum profit had passed, but there was still time to buy. It spiked hard again and has floated between $22 to $30 since.

Getting Ahead

Alright, so I've pointed out a few examples of cards that could cause FOMO with certain audiences.  How do we avoid that and how do we get ahead of the game?  How do you know what the next Phantasmal Image is going to be?  Let's take a look at some trends to follow and what to look at when deciding if you want to buy-in on a card.

YouTube

First on my list is YouTube. It's a site I visit every day with a number of channels that I like to check.  And yes, I watch some of them because I enjoy MTG content quite a bit, but there are some that can have a greater effect on the financial aspect of the game as well.

I won't point out directly who some of them are (a magician never gives away all of their secrets), but I will say that there are a couple of channels that have a very high subscriber count and are vastly popular.  Alright, I'll give you a good one: The Command Zone.  It's a fantastic channel where some folks get together to play none other than the namesake of the channel, Commander.  They have great deck techs, fantastically edited videos, and are a fun group of folks to both watch and listen to.  Because of their popularity, cards have been known to spike thanks to their deck techs and crazy Commander games.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kozilek, the Great Distortion

Recently, Kozilek, the Great Distortion has seen an uptick in popularity.  March 1, 2019, saw the posting of this particular video, in which Ashlen pilots a deck headed by Kozilek, the Great Distortion.  If you follow the trends on MTGStocks, you can see that as of March 2, Kozzy started to see a rise.  This same trend follows when, on March 19, the deck tech is posted, and now the lowest listed non-foil, near mint, English Kozzy on TCGplayer (as of the writing of this article) is roughly $10.

Not only is it popular, but the card has other variables that make it appealing as well – it's an Eldrazi, it has a cast trigger, it has a unique ability and mana cost, it's legendary, and it's no longer in Standard.  Following along?

Twitter

Yes, I am plugging my own Twitter.  No, you don't have to follow me, but it's a great place to follow other folks like LSV, Zac Elsik, The Professor, and the hashtag #MTGFinance.

Twitter is a great place to find conversations about new decks that people are testing, what's going on in each format, why folks get so hyped about Pauper, sudden news within the Magic community, and a variety of other things.  Twitter is an awesome resource!  It's also a site where folks buy and sell cards – so you can follow trends or find some cheap pickups too.

Twitch

There was an error retrieving a chart for Twitch

I won't go too deep into why Twitch is amazing, because it holds a lot of the same value that YouTube does.  The biggest difference is that Twitch is live.  You can get instant information about who is playing what on camera at an SCG Open, MagicFest, FNMs, and tons of folks playing Arena or MTGO live.

There are a lot of content creators who have a Twitch schedule, and it's a great way to find the up-and-coming cards.  You can watch SaffronOlive try to break ridiculous things like Worship just to find out that it's actually fairly good, can be competitive to a certain level, and thus if the price is right, could be a great investment.

Conclusion

So, what’s my point here? To level up our MTG finance decision making, we need to stop buying into cards that suddenly spiked to $20 just because we could find one or two copies at $16 or $17. Let's return to my examples of Torrential Gearhulk and Arclight Phoenix.

First of all, these two cards are very good at what they do. Gearhulk was a great finisher for control decks. Phoenix is a build-around card that happens to have been introduced in a time of fast decks for each format.

Secondly, there were a lot of people trying to buy into each of them just under a spike price point and sell for almost no profit, just to see it spike again. Part of speculation is risk. Yes, many folks will say “the greater the risk, the greater the reward” but the part they fail to mention is sometimes it’s a great fail too. One of the rules of thumb I use for speculating on Magic cards is that you need to have confidence in what you are buying in on and you need to have multiple justifications for why you feel the need to buy it.

Thirdly, do your due diligence on cards. You also have to remember that part of your profit isn’t actually profit, you also have to factor in fees and shipping. Selling a $5 card you bought at $3 won’t net you any profit, but selling a $5 card you got for $0.50 will (another article on this in the future).

Crucially, if you find yourself getting anxious and having FOMO with buying and selling cards, maybe taking a step back and a deep breath to gain some focus will help.  You don’t have to buy in or try and profit from every single Death's Shadow or Nether Traitor.

Pat’s Predictions

  • There’s a massive gap between UMA cards and their other printings. This is a good time to start picking up some Modern staples that are underpriced, especially foils. Fulminator Mage foils are a good example of this.
  • Pauper is starting to pick up, especially after the on-camera coverage from MagicFest LA. The meta is fairly diverse and there are a lot of cards that have room to grow, especially cards with only one or two printings or foils. Tortured Existence is under $2 right now and has the potential to hit $4 or $5 – the deck is literally named after this card. If you can find some hiding in boxes, bulk bins, or for around $1, then I would pick them up and hold on to them.
  • Kefnet, the Mindful is the last of the five Gods from Amonkhet that can be found for under $1 on most major retail websites (including TCGPlayer).  In terms of price, it's not that far from Oketra the True, but they are all great pick-ups for Commander.  This is a long-term hold, but even if you don't want to worry about selling a pile you acquire, they can always be buy-listed.  Grab them for under $1 and send them to Card Kingdom in a year or two for $2 or more in store credit.

Popular Cards Dodging Reprint

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This morning I was running my daily check of MTG Stocks’ Interests page when a couple of price increases grabbed my attention. First, I saw that Mana Crypt had climbed over $200, hitting an all-time high. Second, Blightsteel Colossus hit an all-time high approaching $70 and likely on a one-way trip to $100.

Besides being popular Commander artifacts, these two cards have little in common, but to me they fall in a very similar category when it comes to classifying cards. They are both surprisingly expensive cards that are not on the Reserved List. In fact, Mana Crypt has already gotten the reprint treatment a couple times, although the Masterpiece printing likely didn’t add a statistically significant number of copies to the market.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Crypt

The fact that these cards are maintaining such a high price tag despite their vulnerability to reprint is a testament to the community’s mindset about them: there is no expected reprint anytime soon, and these cards are so important that one can justify the steep price tag to acquire a needed copy. This is a recipe for an expensive, modern-era card. Are there others that fit this same description, with equal upside potential? This week I’ll dig into the data and find out!

Low Reprint Risk, High Price Potential

The key is finding cards that are in the process of spiking due to a powerful demand profile alongside a low reprint likelihood. That’s where profits are likely to be made, especially if affordable copies at the “old price” can be found before a full-blown buyout occurs.

Here are my ideas in no particular order:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Library

Sylvan Library – This green card-drawing machine is powerful enough to make occasional appearances in Legacy. It’s also very playable in Old School. But without a doubt the primary source of demand for this card is from Commander: the card shows up in over 32,000 decks on EDH REC!

The card already moved aggressively, but you may be able to find cheap copies scattered throughout the internet. Once thought to be a $15-$20 card, this is now a solid $35 card with plenty of further upside should it dodge reprint another year or two.

Could Sylvan Library appear in Modern Horizons, introducing the card into the Modern format? It’s not impossible. Watch spoiler season closely, and as soon as this card is ruled out of contention it should be safe to hold for a while longer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oracle of Mul Daya

Oracle of Mul Daya – Would a reprint of this green creature from Zendikar really hurt so much? For some reason this Commander staple (23,000+ decks on EDH REC) has dodged reprint time and again. Given it is in Zendikar, a Modern-legal set, there’s zero chance this is reprinted in Modern Horizons as well.

Could it show up in a future Commander product? Possibly. But as a $30 card, it’s getting dicey. Should the Oracle spike towards $50, reprinting her in a Commander deck would generate lopsided demand for that deck, and Wizards of the Coast is trying to avoid that phenomenon. Only time will tell, but in the interim expect this card to climb higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Worldly Tutor

Worldly Tutor – The more research I do, the more I realize green cards get the shaft when it comes to reprinting. This is an uncommon, originally printed in Mirage and reprinted once in Sixth Edition. It has not been reprinted since. As a result, we have a $10+ uncommon that appears in over 21,000 lists on EDH REC.

This one could be too powerful for Modern, though I’m hardly the expert to judge. If so, then it won’t show up in Modern Horizons and will continue to climb in price. There are only 115 or so listings on TCGplayer across both printings of this card—as supply gradually dwindles I expect to see the price ramp towards $20.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphere of Resistance

Sphere of Resistance – Let’s dig a little deeper to see if we can find any diamonds in the rough. It’s trivial to find all the most played, least reprinted Commander cards. How about something different, such as Sphere of Resistance? It’s not on the Reserved List, which is why it got the Masterpiece treatment not long ago. But other than that, this rare from Exodus has never been reprinted.

There are over 100 vendors with this card on TCGplayer, so a spike isn’t imminent. But Sphere does show up in over 2500 EDH REC lists and it is very popular in Vintage. Granted, Vintage demand isn’t going to move a card’s price all too quickly. But I doubt a reprint is likely anytime soon, giving this coiled spring plenty of room to pop in price in time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Metamorph

Phyrexian Metamorph – It’s not easy to reprint Phyrexian-mana cards. They don’t fit in Standard sets due to the Phyrexian mana mechanic, not to mention I don’t know if Wizards regrets pursuing that ability as it led to some broken cards (Mental Misstep, Gitaxian Probe).

Given its legality in Modern, Phyrexian Metamorph isn’t going to show up in Modern Horizons. So your only chance at a reprint in the next year is going to be some Commander set. Given it's in over 20,000 lists on EDH REC, I think a reprint is possible, but far from a guarantee. Wizards has opted not to reprint it so far, and it's only getting older and sparser. I expect a push towards $20 at some point in the next year or two if this trend continues.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Jace, the Mind Sculptor – He’s Jace. He’s extremely powerful. He’s Modern-legal, and likely to get better as the card pool in Modern expands. And he can’t be reprinted in Modern Horizons. The card has already risen past $100, but is there really a ceiling on this guy? At some point, I wonder if Masters 25 booster boxes become attractive due to the inherent Jace lottery…if only there weren’t so many bulk rares in that set.

As for the Reserved List…

Speaking of Jaces over $100…it’s uncommon for a non-Reserved List card to crack $100 these days. Wizards has done a fine job playing whack-a-mole, reprinting cards where they can to keep prices down. That said, highly desirable Reserved List cards are simply doomed to rise in price as long as Magic is healthy. In fact, some Reserved List cards haven’t crossed the century mark even though I would have expected them to by now.

In the forefront of my mind is Sliver Queen. Rumors abound that Slivers may show up in Modern Horizons. Whether or not they do is irrelevant. Casual players love Slivers and Sliver Queen is an obvious include (though not usually as the general). There are currently 28 English listings of this card on TCGplayer—it is near a tipping point and $100 is virtually guaranteed.

Next, you have Serra's Sanctum, a powerful land played in both Legacy and Commander. This one peaked over $100 at one point, but copies can still be found for $80-$90. Given its presence on the Reserved List and unmatched power level, this card will inevitably break $100 permanently. This could even be the year, as we’ve seen Card Kingdom sell out of the card and jack up their buylist once already. It won’t be long before a $100 buylist price is a mainstay on this card.

Lastly, let’s talk briefly about the cheapest Dual Land, Plateau (though maybe it’s Savannah at this point).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plateau

The current market price on this card is technically over $100, but plenty of HP and MP copies are available for under the century mark. LP copies start in the mid $90’s. It has taken over 25 years, but I believe the last of the cheapest of the Dual Lands will finally sell for over $100 soon. Sure, there will be beat up, bent-in-half copies that sell for less. But any decent-looking Dual Land will cost you more than a Ben Franklin before you know it…even for Plateau.

Wrapping It Up

While we’re not witnessing the seemingly daily buyouts of cards these days, a lot of popular playables have quietly risen to all-time highs. This goes for both Reserved List cards and reprintable cards. Mana Crypt, Sylvan Library, and Jace, the Mind Sculptor have been on my radar a while now but there are a handful of others showing plenty of price movement.

While I tend to shy away from cards that are at risk of reprint, I have to question how Wizards plans to reprint some of these pricey, popular Commander cards. Some are too powerful for Modern, and some are too expensive to include in the annual Commander products. Without a good reprint outlet, some of these cards will climb higher and higher.

And, of course, there are always Reserved List cards on my radar. Recently I’ve been following Sliver Queen, Plateau, and Serra's Sanctum, waiting for them to crack the $100 mark once and for all. For these it’s a matter of when, not if.

Whether you prefer the security of the Reserved List or not, one thing is clear: Commander is a major driver for card prices and will help generate profits for years to come. Wizards can’t possibly keep up with all the reprints necessary to keep card prices down. This means there are still plenty of opportunities to profit.

…

Sigbits

  • Here’s a hotlist card you don’t see every day: Alpha Counterspell. Card Kingdom currently offers $570 on their buylist for Near Mint copies. Be careful selling to them, though, as their downgrade percentages on Alpha can be a bit rough. Then again, how many people actually own Alpha Counterspells?
  • I noticed Eureka returned to Card Kingdom’s hotlist recently. At first it was listed with a $305 buy price, but the price has since dropped to a more realistic $260. Honestly, this is such a fun, unique card and I think its price tag is merited. There really aren’t many of these in stock, and I think it will be a $500 card before 2020 is over.
  • There are still a ton of Masterpiece cards on Card Kingdom’s hotlist. I suspect these are rare enough that it’s difficult for Card Kingdom to get and keep many in stock. Scalding Tarn receives top billing with a $235 buy price. Verdant Catacombs is on there with a $165 buy price and Chalice of the Void at $115. Each of these have a very robust demand profile.

Insider: QS Cast #118 – Time Management [Unlocked]

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Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Fellow QS Writer Chris Martin re-joins the Podcast!
  • We discuss time management and tailoring that to your finance strategy.
  • MTG Arena Changes
  • Insider Questions

Cards to Consider


*This Podcast was Recorded on 03/22/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

Insider: QS Cast #117 – London Lookout [Unlocked]

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Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Fellow QS Writer Chris Martin joins the Podcast!
  • We look at the London Ruling article from Frank Karsten on CFB.
  • Insider Questions

Cards to Consider

*This Podcast was Recorded on 03/14/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Evaluating Potential Spec Opportunities (Part 1 of 2)

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Every day we are bombarded with numerous choices.

  • What time do I need to wake up?
  • What should I have for breakfast?
  • Should I take back roads to work today?
  • Etc. Etc. Etc.

Magic finance is yet another realm where we have to be cognizant of the plethora of choices available. We all have monetary limitations, even if they may vary dramatically person to person. Every spec carries with it an opportunity cost—so how do we choose which potential specs to pursue?

First off we need to know our limitations. In this instance it is likely best to write down your financial restrictions, though admittedly I've been willing to bend said limitations in the past if a really good opportunity arose. The reason you write it down is because when you write something down your brain "encodes" it and has a better likelihood of remembering it. This same thing occurs for goals, which is why experts tell you to write down your goals, as those who do tend to reach them considerably more often.

Now that we have our financial restriction written, we will want to move on to writing down our MTG financial goals. Doing so in this order is important because it provides us with a parameter of which to help us define our goals. When I'm faced with a large project at work, the first thing I look for is a list of requirements for the project to be considered a success. In the Magic finance realm this would be your goals and restrictions.

For example; let's say we would like the costs of playing Magic to be net-zero over the year, which means that we make back all that we spend. However, we are also limited in what we can spend each month, thanks to typically being paid on a weekly, bi-weekly, or twice-a-month payscale at most places of employment and having additional living expenses to be concerned about.

So let's restrict our Magic expenses to $200 a month. This means that throughout the year we can only spend $2400 on Magic, but we also need to make $2400 through sales opportunities and tournament winnings.

I can't help much when it comes to money made through tournament winnings, as my success at tournaments is rather limited. I tend to look at most as having a bad Return on Investment (ROI), because the likelihood that you make a profit is typically lower than that you will lose money. For example, SCG Cleveland costs $60 to enter—if you don't make top 64 you lose $60. If you make it to anywhere between 64th and 33rd place you make $40. From 32nd to 17th place you make $140. All that for two days of grueling grinding.

Flat Fees

Selling cards is where I shine. The most important thing to remember is that the definition of profit is the difference between what you paid for something and what you net after you sell it, which includes all marketplace fees, shipping fees, etc. I bring this up because it's easy to get greedy and always try to sell at the peak. Unfortunately, nobody knows where the peak is until it's already passed, and the number of buyers at the peak price is typically minimal—hence why the price drops to entice more buyers.

It's also easy to forget that the cheaper a card retails for, the more the marketplace and shipping fees cut into any potential profits. If we assume TCGplayer is your marketplace of choice, then here is a handy table showing the flat fees per transaction. Those fees include: the flat $0.3 fee for every payment; a shipping fee associated with a plain white envelope; and the supplies to properly ship a card, including top loader, envelope, and stamp (which amount to $0.6).

Sell Value Flat Fee as a Percentage of the Sale
$1.00 90.00%
$2.00 45.00%
$3.00 30.00%
$4.00 22.50%
$5.00 18.00%
$6.00 15.00%
$7.00 12.86%
$8.00 11.25%
$9.00 10.00%
$10.00 9.00%
$11.00 8.18%
$12.00 7.50%
$13.00 6.92%
$14.00 6.43%
$15.00 6.00%

As you can see, the smaller the sale the bigger the flat fee eats into any potential profits. You can't buy less than $2 worth of cards from a vendor on TCGplayer, but I included the $1 item to show you how much they can eat into profits.

When you are evaluating an opportunity, understanding these costs can be critical. For example, say we see some hot new Standard rare show up as a two-of in the sideboard of the winning deck at the Mythic Championship. If that card's current value is $1, then even if it triples in price to $3, your profit could be as low as $0.75 after factoring in all the selling fees. In this case, that probably wouldn't be worth the effort.

Now the good news is that because shipping is by far the biggest flat fee cost with each transaction, if cards are purchased in multiples then your profit loss is spread out over that number of cards. This means that it might be worth it to jump onto that spec train if you think you'll sell them in groups of more than one, which is especially relevant for maindeck four-ofs. Whereas there's a bit more risk in sideboard cards typically played as one- or two-ofs.

Risk Burn Down

One thing we do at the company I work for is called a Risk Burn Down. The basic premise is to think of all the things that can go wrong with a build, and then work your way back to eliminating the risk associated with those concerns. With Magic cards there are fewer types of risk than with building large machinery, but there are still plenty.

  1. The metagame shifts and the card falls out of favor.
  2. The card is reprinted.
  3. A better option is printed or unbanned.
  4. The card is banned.

Metagame Shifts

We have very little control over metagame shifts. Mitigating this type of risk requires constant vigilance of deck performance, and sifting through a lot of data. This is one area that benefits from the group hivemind of the QS Discord channel, as members will often bring this information to light as soon as it's available.

While gathering this data is still cumbersome, you can find much of it in just a few locations. Other places I like to check are MTGGoldfish and MTGTop8.

Reprints

Luckily, WotC usually does a good job of letting its customers know what products are on the horizon (except for UMA—that one surprised most of us). Knowing the products in the pipeline, we can make educated guesses regarding any particular card's likelihood of reprint, though again it's important to stress that none of us has perfect information and even the hivemind can be wrong.

For example, War of the Spark releases May 3rd, and Modern Horizons releases June 14th. Modern Horizons will have no existing Modern-legal cards, and War of the Spark is a Standard-legal set. Knowing this, we are unlikely to see a card like Jace, the Mind Sculptor reprinted anytime soon, as he is currently Modern-legal and too powerful for Standard. Unsurprisingly, many people have picked up on this and his price has risen steadily since the Modern Horizons announcement.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Better Option

This one can be tricky if only because we've seen a lot of power creep from WotC card design over the years. It is likely that a fair number of currently powerful cards will be eclipsed, eventually. However, that creep isn't exponential year-to-year—risk is minimized as long as your planned selling time frame isn't extremely far out into the future.

However, with a set like Modern Horizons on the...horizon (the pun was too easy and I couldn't resist), this risk may actually take a front seat for the near future. We should start expecting more spoilers after War of the Spark releases.

Bannings

After the latest Banned and Restricted update, which announced no changes, Faithless Looting has gone on to dominate most large events. Many people think the card's time in Modern is coming to an end. Because of this fear, we are seeing the cards most often paired with it start to slip in value, despite putting up such solid performances.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Faithless Looting

I expect this trend to continue at least until the next B&R announcement, which will likely decide Looting's ultimate fate. Either it dodges the next B&R and WotC decides they are okay with it, or it gets the banhammer and the metagame shifts.

The point here is that when cards are banned, the cards they are most often played with also tend to take a financial hit. Thus your speculation target may not get banned, but if its partner in crime is, it still loses value.

~

Join me for my next article where I'll discuss some more factors to consider when evaluating speculation opportunities.

Brew Report: March Metagaming Madness

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Is Modern solved? Is Modern stale? Any amount of time spent on a Magic forum or subreddit these days seems to offer countless arguments from both sides of the debate. Indeed, this Phoenix/Dredge/Stirrings (in that order) metagame has proven the most divisive I can remember since Siege Rhino briefly served as hyper-acting format manager in a void left by the Treasure Cruise and Birthing Pod ban. But no matter your position, I'd imagine it difficult to deny the sheer scope of innovation on display among Modern players eager to attack the top decks. David just brought us a breakdown of how high-level paper finishes adjust for this metagame; today, we'll look at some of the standout tech from this month's Magic Online dumps.

They're Trying to Build a Prison

Between Phoenix spearheading Blood Moon's comeback and Phoenix struggling against Chalice of the Void, I've heard many cries for prison strategies to ascend in Modern's ranks. It seems that prophecy is being fulfilled.

Boros Prison, by BKLunch (5-0)

Creatures

2 Hazoret the Fervent
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Planeswalkers

2 Gideon of the Trials
3 Nahiri, the Harbinger
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Gideon Jura

Artifacts

4 Chalice of the Void

Enchantments

4 Rest in Peace
3 Blood Moon
2 Cast Out

Instants

3 Lightning Helix

Sorceries

2 Anger of the Gods
2 Day of Judgment
1 Wrath of God

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
2 Sacred Foundry
4 Temple of Triumph
1 Rugged Prairie
1 Needle Spires
3 Field of Ruin
1 Gemstone Caverns
5 Plains
2 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Anger of the Gods
1 Lightning Helix
2 Aven Mindcensor
2 Damping Sphere
3 Dragon's Claw
2 Goblin Rabblemaster
3 Stony Silence

Boros Prison is by no means a new deck, but I've never seen a build so heavy on heavy-duty hate in the mainboard. Not that I'm criticizing—the list reads like a Greatest Hits of beating Phoenix, Dredge, and Tron. I wondered about this kind of deck, which is known to run Lightning Helix thanks to Chalice eliminating Lightning Bolt as an option, after reading David's piece that covered a Jeskai list heavier on Helix than Bolt, and was happy to discover it out in full force.

Also of note here are the many copies of Anger of the Gods, a potent hoser versus Dredge, and whopping 4 copies of Rest in Peace in the main. This deck is not losing to Stinkweed Imp, ever! Goblin Rabblemaster rounds out the sideboard as a way to quickly pressure decks that can go over the top, such as Gruul ramp strategies (which are also excelling in this metagame, some even with Tooth & Nail).

Rakdos Stompy, by FLUFFYWOLF2 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Master of Cruelties
1 Hazoret the Fervent

Planeswalkers

3 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Artifacts

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Ensnaring Bridge

Enchantments

4 Blood Moon

Instants

1 Abrade
3 Bedevil
2 Kolaghan's Command

Sorceries

4 Collective Brutality
2 Anger of the Gods

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Blood Crypt
2 Graven Cairns
1 Temple of Malice
9 Swamp
3 Mountain
60 Cards

Sideboard

4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Crumble to Dust
2 Slaughter Games
2 Stormbreath Dragon
1 Kolaghan's Command

Rakdos Stompy follows stompy's credo to a T: slam lock piece; slam threats; close out the game. The lock pieces are less impactful here than in Boros Prison, but more widely applicable: Liliana of the Veil affects more decks than Rest in Peace, for instance. Ensnaring Bridge represents a more fundamental difference between this deck and Boros: the latter is happy answering creatures as the show up, but Rakdos wants to eliminate that angle of attack altogether. In doing so, it becomes softer to artifact hate, but demands more specific answers from the opponent. FLUFFYWOLF2 may well be onto something there, as he's now 5-0'd with the deck multiple times.

Rabblemaster returns in the sideboard to fulfill its fast-clock role in prison decks, and Leyline of the Void makes an appearance to neuter Dredge. Slaughter Games and Crumble to Dust also show up as hedges against combo strategies. Stormbreath and Kolaghan's grant an edge in the fair matchups.

Can't get enough of this deck? Check out Caleb Durward's Orzhov Death Cloud, which also aims to turbo-out Liliana (his trophy-netting Rhythm of the Wild deck ain't too shabby either!).

Ghostly Martyr, by TERRADESTROY (5-0)

Creatures

4 Martyr of Sands
4 Serra Ascendant
4 Squadron Hawk
4 Ranger of Eos
2 Thraben Inspector
2 Cataclysmic Gearhulk

Enchantments

4 Ghostly Prison
2 Runed Halo
2 Cast Out

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Sorceries

3 Wrath of God
1 Proclamation of Rebirth

Lands

4 Flagstones of Trokair
4 Field of Ruin
4 Ghost Quarter
2 Emeria, the Sky Ruin
2 Mistveil Plains
8 Plains

Sideboard

4 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Damping Sphere
3 Stony Silence
3 Devout Lightcaster
2 Celestial Purge
2 Consulate Crackdown

Ghostly Martyr updates an ages-old deck with, well, Ghostly Prison. A card that's never been quite good enough for Modern, Ghostly indeed shuts down many of the format's premier aggro decks, especially Dredge. It also prevents Phoenix from chaining cantrips and attacking within the same turn, effectively removing haste from the bird and slowing the deck to a crawl. Lifelink, too, proves potent against both of these decks, especially on a large body. And Martyr naturally checks both Burn and Tron: the former by gaining life as a primary gameplan, and the latter by seamlessly integrating eight land destruction effects.

The cards featured in smaller numbers are my favorites. Cataclysmic Gearhulk randomly hoses artifact-heavy decks like Whir Prison, and Devout Lightcaster seems great against all those Lilianas. Consulate Crackdown is a read-and-weep sweeper that one-ups Shatterstorm via exile clause against the artifact decks. The deck now has multiple 5-0s to its name, one of which even makes room for Emrakul, the Promised End!

#NotAllBlueDecks

Some players have been hard at work this month un-tarnishing their choice color's name. Not every blue mage needs Arclight Phoenix to win, and the 3/2's high standing has opened the door for some exquisitely fair strategies to break through.

Azorius Blink, by HARLANMTG (5-0)

Creatures

3 Wall of Omens
2 Snapcaster Mage
3 Kitchen Finks
2 Vendilion Clique
4 Restoration Angel

Planeswalkers

1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Enchantments

1 Detention Sphere

Instants

4 Path to Exile
1 Condemn
2 Spell Snare
1 Negate
2 Absorb
3 Cryptic Command
3 Hieroglyphic Illumination
3 Settle the Wreckage

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 Glacial Fortress
1 Mystic Gate
4 Field of Ruin
1 Ghost Quarter
6 Island
2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Negate
1 Cataclysmic Gearhulk
1 Celestial Purge
1 Circle of Protection: Red
1 Crucible of Worlds
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dispel
2 Lyra Dawnbringer
3 Rest in Peace
2 Surgical Extraction

UW Blink compensates for UW Control's lack of game against über-fast aggro by running plenty of blockers. In a metagame full of recurring 3/3s and hasty 2/2s, Wall of Omens looks especially appealing. Kitchen Finks, too, punishes players for playing red spells, while Restoration Angel creates further value in attrition-focused games. And counterspells interact with combo decks.

All these factors allow such a sluggish, clunky deck to 5-0 in today's Modern, even though it looks like something straight out of 2012. The constant threat of a blowout from Settle the Wreckage, a card that didn't exist all those years ago, ties everything together. Looking for something similar, but with fewer unexciting spells? Try UNWESTROUND's Jeskai Flash, which operates at instant speed and splashes Lightning Helix while maintaining a three-drop-heavy gameplan.

UR Delver, by MILLB4KILL (5-0)

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Pteramander
4 Young Pyromancer
2 Thing in the Ice

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Opt
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Abrade
3 Spell Snare
2 Spell Pierce
4 Remand
1 Mana Leak

Sorceries

3 Serum Visions
1 Chart a Course
2 Forked Bolt

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
2 Steam Vents
4 Spirebluff Canal
7 Island

Sideboard

2 Thing in the Ice
1 Alpine Moon
1 Blood Moon
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Dispel
2 Izzet Staticaster
2 Smash to Smithereens
3 Tormod's Crypt

I became less interested in my own UR Delver deck lately, as I've come to realize that not having the free wins against creature decks provided by Thing in the Ice made my strategy look quite tame next to Izzet Phoenix. MILLB4KILL may have come to a similar conclusion, and has opted to just run Thing himself—he packs all four in the 75. Opt helps enable the 0/4, and Young Pyromancer also benefits from the increased cantrip count. Even without Mountain, though, I don't much understand Polluted Delta over Scalding Tarn—why not at least pretend we're Phoenix for a couple turns? Izzet opponents might top-scry their mainboard Surgical Extraction!

For a more midrange-style UR Delver build swapping Ptermander for Nimble Obstructionist, Vendilion Clique, and Wizard's Lightning, check out MIS4TUNE's 29th-place finish in the March 10th Challenge.

Blue Moon, by THEPENSWORD (5-0)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Thing in the Ice
2 Vendilion Clique

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Lava Coil

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Opt
3 Spell Snare
4 Remand
4 Cryptic Command

Enchantments

2 Blood Moon

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
3 Flooded Strand
3 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls
1 Spirebluff Canal
1 Desolate Lighthouse
7 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Ral, Izzet Viceroy
2 Dispel
2 Negate
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Abrade
1 Flame Slash

This Blue Moon deck's claim to greatness is adopting Lava Coil, taking the trend of integrating Magma Spray from some days earlier to a new level. While Spray permanently deals with Phoenix and Modern's many small creatures, Coil charges an extra mana to add Thing in the Ice and Crackling Drake to the roster, effectively answering every important threat in the top decks—especially now that Izzet seems to be moving away from Pteramander (see below).

Hollow One, Kalitas, and other x/4s have long posted problems for Izzet-colored decks, as have recursive threats, and Coil deals with all that and more in one neat package.

Wild Tech Grab Bag

In truth, the March dumps held too much tech to squeeze into a single article. So enjoy this scattered section of other observations and hot takes.

Eldrazi Stompy Developments

Of three recent trends among Colorless Eldrazi Stompy decklists, I feel only one is worth the time.

For starters, there's Billy Savarin's recent IQ win with just 3 Serum Powder. His list looks as if a friend dared him to jam some random Eldrazi Tron cards into his deck—he allegedly even registered a 64-card mainboard! Billy's not the first to run 3 Powder; a 5-0 list without a full playset was published some days before the IQ, and I tried building with 3 Powder a couple years ago (it didn't work). I hold that this deck wants the full set to maximize its odds of finding busted hands (and, specifically, Eldrazi Temple).

I've also seen a Stompy list splashing red for Eldrazi Obligator, as well as Alpine Moon in the sideboard. I think red can be a useful splash in theory thanks to sweeper effects, which would allow us to cut down on one-shot removal in the sideboard. But in my experiments, it's never been worth it compared with the sturdiness and utility of a colorless manabase; besides, the only red sweeper worth running these days is Anger of the Gods, which a mostly colorless deck would never be able to support.

Finally, the trend I condone. It seems White Eldrazi Stompy is rivaling posted Colorless finishes for the first time in months. If it is indeed time to metagame against Phoenix and Dredge, this development makes perfect sense. Temple into big threats is good against every deck, while the white cards are only useful in certain matchups, so the added consistency makes CES a better call in an open field. WES wins out over Colorless when cards like Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Rest in Peace, Leonin Arbiter, and Eldrazi Displacer are in high demand, as they are now.

Return of Linear Aggro-Combo

Due to favorable matchup profiles, some of Modern's storied aggro-combo decks are viable again after long slumbers.

Bogles: Never loses to Phoenix with Path saved for Thing. Dredge and Burn also lose to the lifelink. Happy to mulligan low and packs hosers.

Mill: Has a win condition difficult for Phoenix to interact with, and that Dredge supports. Largely ignores hate aimed at the top decks.

Cheeri0s, Infect: These decks punish opponents for tapping out (i.e. for Thing in the Ice, Cathartic Reunion, cantrips) and find it very difficult to lose to interaction-light decks such as Tron and Hardened Scales.

New Homes for Snapcaster, Kalitas, and Frenzy

It looks like Snapcaster Mage is here to stay in Izzet Phoenix decks, generally cutting into shares previously occupied by Pteramander, Crackling Drake, and Pyromancer's Ascension (in fringe cases, Young Pyromancer). Mage diversify's the deck angles of attack, a must now that players are finally catching on to Izzet's gameplans and tuning accordingly. It also shines in midrange matchups, which are increasing in popularity thanks to...

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, the latest cornerstone of BGx Rock. Kalitas turns Fatal Push into a real removal spell against Phoenix and Dredge alike and has enabled something of a midrange renaissance online this month; the Vampire has even shown up in UB Faeries and Grixis Control. Kalitas is so potent right now that Anafenza the Foremost's similar effect has been earning her space in Humans.

I covered Frenzy Affinity back in February, but the deck positively blew up this month, bringing traditional Affinity to new heights despite Hardened Scales's sustained metagame presence. Experimental Frenzy gives the strategy the unfair edge it needed to keep up with Modern's steadily rising power level. Strategically, it allows Affinity to slog through removal, something all of the format's best decks already do. Instead of grinding via synergy like Scales, it does so using the enchantment's raw power.

Change at Last

One week ago, I asked whether Wizards should address Arclight Phoenix. My argument was that if the deck kept its metagame shares and Modern failed to adapt quickly enough, they might have to. But this month's Magic Online results tell the story of players digging deep and finding ways to address Phoenix on their own terms. Here's hoping players succeed in policing Modern themselves.

The Modern Horizons Effect

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I remember vividly when Modern Masters was released in June of 2013. At that time I was very active in the new local game store that had opened a few months prior just minutes from my house, so I was able to see first-hand the impact it had on players. It seemed to me like the Midas of Modern, turning everyone who touched it into a Modern player. When someone cracked a pack of Modern Masters they suddenly had Modern cards and were a part of that world, and I saw many dive right in.

At that time Modern was already very popular,  and demand was so high that it easily soaked up the new cards. In fact, many reprinted cards actually soon ended up at a higher price, doing nothing to satiate demand. I attribute this to the new players it brought to the format bringing new demand, and to those already playing Modern who rode the wave and invested deeper into the format. The fervor it caused at my local store was surely felt in many other stores across the globe.

What I am getting at is that I expect Modern Horizons to have a similar impact as Modern Masters, bringing players to Modern who might otherwise not have played. It should also have the effect of recapturing the attention of lapsed players, and increasing interest in the format from current players.

There are no Modern reprints in Modern Horizons, so there’s no real risk of it decreasing the price of staples. Instead its effect will be purely to increase demand for other Modern cards, which can already be seen in the market. Just like with Modern Masters release, we’re in the midst of a thriving Modern season, which explains why there’s a lot of movement and growth. I expect things will come to a head with Modern Horizons.

Once we know exactly what’s in the set, we’ll start seeing spikes based on new cards slotting into existing decks or creating new ones. That will be exciting for sure, but right now we’re mostly in the dark.

I think the best plan for now is to target general big staples—one great opportunity lies in cards that were reprinted in Ultimate Masters. Many of these cards have already seen significant rebounds, but the price of many staples is still significantly depressed from their highs.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

For example, Engineered Explosives flirted with $100 before an UMA reprinting crashed its price. The original version is now $40, and the UMA version feels like an absolute steal at $24, at least in the long-term. It’s such a strong staple that I really can’t see this falling lower, with plenty of gains ahead in the coming years.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Karn Liberated also looks like a great spec. Once over $90, its price has fallen steadily since reprint, and now seems to have stabilized in the $65 range. Recently Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger spiked, and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is currently on the rise, too—it’s only a matter of time before this clear Tron demand affects Karn.

I noticed that the Iconic Masters printing of Oblivion Stone is also showing signs of growth, so that’s another sign and possible spec. It also brings attention to the fact that not just UMA, but previous somewhat recent reprint sets like Iconic Masters and Masters 25, are good targets in preparation for Modern Horizons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

A great example is Cryptic Command, which has its various printings all trending upwards over the past few months. It’s widely speculated that we’ll see a reprint of a classic blue card like Counterspell. I’ve discussed this before, but I think Cryptic Command is a great way to capitalize on that.

In the past week Jace, the Mind Sculptor saw significant growth, some of which I attribute to this same Counterspell speculation, and it’s a card that goes hand-in-hand with Cryptic Command.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Counterspell

I think there’s some appeal to investing in higher-end versions of Counterspell, some of which are already appreciating. If the card does become Modern-legal, expect promos, foils, and ABU versions to all see significant gains.

The Whir Prison deck has been creating a lot of movement lately, including in Modern’s most important prison cards, Ensnaring Bridge and Chalice of the Void. These feel like solid blue-chip cards, but there isn't a ton of percentage to be gained here.

There may be more opportunity in cheaper cards with the potential to spike. In just the last couple days we’ve seen a spike in Bottled Cloister from the $1-2 range to $5. Even if it’s just a one-of in the deck, the price of this quite unique and old card was just too low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

My favorite target in the deck is Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas, another card that just seems way too cheap to me. It’s now a three-of sideboard staple in the Whir Prison deck. It's quite a unique and powerful card that gets better with every new artifact printed, and $17 just seems too low given its price history. In spring of 2016 it spiked from $15 to over $30, but by the end of that year was down to $20. With the card now more present in the competitive metagame than ever before, growth seems inevitable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kaya, Orzhov Usurper

While mostly a Standard spec, I want to point out that this week Kaya, Orzhov Usurper leapfrogged Hydroid Krasis as the most expensive Ravnica Allegiance card on Magic Online, currently almost 22 tix compared to 17. To me that’s a strong statement about the future prospects of the card, since MTGO tends to be ahead of what happens in paper.

The paper price of Kaya is still around $9, but rising, so it feels like a great pick-up now with a horizon through the next Standard rotation. At that point, the powerful explore creatures and green staples that power Hydroid Krasis will be gone, and its price should plummet. The fact that Kaya has also been seeing Modern play, like in the Lantern Control deck high-profile pro Sam Black played to the Top 8 of MagicFest Tampa, makes its long-term prospects even better.

-Adam

Insider: QS Cast #116 – Cards on the Horizon [Unlocked]

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(This Podcast had to be split into two parts during editing.)

Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Further Discussion of everything #ModernHorizons Announcement.
  • A look at lucrative Modern cards entering a buyer's market.
  • Weekly QS Cast "Cards to Consider" Segment.

Cards to Consider

*This Podcast was Recorded on 03/07/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Insuring Your Magic Collection: Part 2

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In Part 1 of this two-part series on insuring trading cards, I wrote about some basic insurance principles and connected the insurance industry with our beloved game and hobby Magic: the Gathering. If you haven't read Part 1, please do so as Part 2 builds off of Part 1 quite a bit.

The research I did for these articles taught me that trading cards are typically not insured by standard U.S. homeowners, renters, or condo policies. My intent was to make readers aware that when they experience a loss affecting their trading cards, residential insurance coverage would either provide a severely depreciated compensation (through the Personal Property Coverage Section of the policy) or exclude the trading cards entirely.

The latter is more likely, as they will be viewed as collectibles—which are explicitly excluded by most Personal Property coverage sections. As mentioned last week, most collectibles require a scheduled personal property policy to protect them. Because of this, I advised readers to talk to an insurance agent about filling the gap in coverage if their collections of trading cards were valued at $5,000 or more. I brought up standalone scheduled personal property insurance as a means of filling that insurance gap.

Today I'll discuss more about what that entails. I'll cover how to buy a policy; what my buying experience was like from a reputable insurance agency called Collect Insure; and what the policy actually covers. Snippets of my interview with Robert (Bob) Brodwater, Director of Personal Lines at Collect Insure, are also interwoven throughout the article. Let's dig in!

Filling the Coverage Gap

There was an error retrieving a chart for Acquire

Last week I covered Loss Prevention, but it should be clear that no matter how perfect we are at protecting our cards on a day-to-day basis, there is still always some risk exposure present. As a result, the only surefire way to protect ourselves is by acquiring an appropriate amount of insurance for our trading card collections.

I began thinking about what I would do if my roughly $35,000 collection were stolen or destroyed by a fire. As I contemplated these scenarios during my research for these articles, I decided to get a quote for my personal collection.

It turns out that finding companies who will give a quote for trading card (collectibles) insurance is much harder than you might expect. In the U.S. there are only a few companies that specialize in providing collectibles insurance policies. I ultimately went through two quoting experiences. One of those really stood out to me: Collect Insure.

Quick background about Collect Insure:

Source: https://collectinsure.com/why-insure/about-us (and confirmed by Bob Brodwater in my interview)

  • The company was founded in 1966 by an avid stamp collector, Horace Harrison.
  • The company is currently owned by Global Indemnity Insurance.
  • The company boasts an "A" (Excellent) rating by A.M. Best. This is very important when considering the financial solvency of an insurance company backing your policy, as it translates to the company being able to pay out on claims without going out of business.

The Quoting and Buying Experience

Collect Insure blends an easy-to-use quoting application (which only took about 5-10 minutes to complete!) with quick turnaround from their customer service team.

After reviewing the coverages and discussing my questions with the customer service representative, I realized the Collect Insure policy provided exactly what I was looking for to protect my collection. Perhaps most important of all, I felt the policy was reasonably priced for the amount of coverage I needed, so I went ahead and purchased it.

If you visit Collect Insure's website to get a quote, be prepared to answer a few basic questions about your collection's value, the way you protect/store it, and a little about your insurance history. If you do complete a quote on their website, a representative will reach out to you to answer any additional questions or concerns.

The individual I spoke to was not pushy towards a sale at all and was very genuine and conversational. I already had my mind made up that I was going to purchase, but this experience solidified my decision even further.

FAQs

Before I dive into the details of my past experience and why acquiring a policy was so important to me, I want to start with some questions I felt might be commonly asked by a trading card collector looking for insurance coverage. I am only scratching the surface with these questions, so be sure to ask a licensed representative all of your additional questions as they will be able to give you the best guidance.

Q1: Does the policy have coverage for cards which are in-transit, such as those being used for play or display; or cards in-transit between the scheduled premises (the place your cards reside / are stored) and another property (such as a local-game store or a tournament)?

Yes, Collect Insure's policy provides coverage for cards while they are away from your scheduled premises. This includes shipping coverage if done by an approved vendor (see the policy guidelines for details) and while in-transit (exclusions do apply). In fact, the policy even provides a specific coverage limit for Collectible Exhibitions in the event you are putting your cards on display.

According to Bob Brodwater from Collect Insure, their policy form is intentionally written as an inland marine policy as opposed to a scheduled personal property policy because of the flexibility in coverages it can provide. The coverage for "in-transit" trading cards mentioned above is just one example of this—traditional SPP policies do not always cover articles as thoroughly when they are away from the scheduled premises.

Q2: Do I have to pay a deductible for losses I experience?

No, in the case of Collect Insure, their policy form does not include a deductible. However, there is a minimum loss requirement of $50 to file a claim through the Collect Insure policy. In other words, you cannot make a claim for a loss under $50.

Q3: Will I be required to document every card I own to apply for insurance?

While there isn't a specific requirement to have every single card itemized, you do have an inherent responsibility as the insured to be able to provide factual evidence of your collection's value. Insurance companies must protect themselves from fraud. It is reasonable for them to expect some form of documentation, whether via photos, sale receipts, an itemized inventory, an appraisal form, or something else.

I encourage you to document the most expensive pieces of your collection with photos (aim for around 80% of the total value). This will ensure an easy claims process should you experience a loss. It also helps to guarantee you don't miss anything major and leave yourself underinsured.

I would also encourage you to consider keeping a manifesto of the most valuable cards in your collection; some examples of how to do this include retaining receipts of purchase, or keeping a record in a spreadsheet. (For starters, be sure to include the price, date, condition, and quantity purchased.)

Q4: I'm a collector and I'm always growing my collection's value: is there a way to increase my coverage regularly as my collection's value increases?

Yes, the policy includes an option for an Automatic Monthly Increase to the total coverage amount. Mine updates the base coverage amount by 1% per month. You can also call Collect Insure to endorse (change) the policy should you make a purchase that substantially increases your collection's value all at once. Be aware that you'll likely have to pay an additional premium for this type of change.

Q5: What types of perils (losses) are covered by a Collect Insure policy?

According to Bob Brodwater, Collect Insure will cover all perils unless explicitly excluded in the Exclusions page of the policy. This includes things like water and fire damage, burglary and theft, transit and shipping damages, flood (unless in flood zone A or V), and accidental breakage. The inland marine form provides these coverages regardless of the type of collectible being insured. This is important if you are considering this policy as a means of expanding coverage beyond your trading card collection.

Reminder: for all of your questions pertaining to how best to protect your collection, I want to reiterate that you should talk to a licensed representative.

Applying Prior History to Current Decisions

I alluded to this already, but the buying experience with Collect Insure was excellent. Their process is not tailored specifically to trading cards; rather, they are experienced at insuring collectibles generically, and thus their quoting application allows you to tailor it to your needs. I only focused on my trading card collection—a mix of mostly Magic: the Gathering cards with a smattering of valuable sports cards from my childhood—but I easily could have added pieces of a different collection to the quote.

The reality is after contemplating my past it was an easy decision to acquire coverage for my Magic collection. I went into the quoting process with Collect Insure knowing I wanted to buy.

I didn't share this personal story in Part 1 because it did not feel like the right place, but I feel it is important now to drive home awareness of the coverage gap we face by not insuring our trading cards and collectibles thoroughly. I will admit I contemplated not sharing it at all because it isn't easy to recount without getting a little emotional.

Tragedy struck me once when I was 16—my family endured a near-total-loss fire that started in our upstairs bathroom. Jumping right to the most important fact from this story: no life was lost. My Mom and I were the only ones home that morning and we got out safely before things got really bad; our cats smartly hid in the basement and we got the dog outside, so all was good there, too.

Our possessions were less fortunate. At that point, I wasn't collecting Magic cards in a serious manner but I did have some (which actually survived because they were not upstairs). I also had a decent number of 1st edition Pokemon cards.

The most devastating part of the fire affected my sports cards collection, sports memorabilia, and many of my toys from childhood. Many of my most valuable cards and memorabilia, including Ken Griffey Jr. and Michael Jordan rookie cards, a Kobe Bryant-signed jersey card, and a Michael Jordan signed picture, were all destroyed in my bedroom and the attic.

Here's a napkin signed by Chicago Bears great, Brian Urlacher, for my Mom at a bar in 2001 after a Packers/Bears game. You can see the singed edges, especially the lower left corner, yet somehow it miraculously survived intact. This was in a fireproof safe along with many other paper documents (including the aforementioned rookie cards) which were not as lucky.

My family's insurance policy paid out a huge dollar amount when it was all said and done. They had to redo nearly the entire home because of the fire, smoke, and water damage. It wasn't a "total loss" but it was very close.

As for my cards and memorabilia, they paid me $1,000 (and that was after extensive negotiation by my Mom). The same items which were destroyed were probably valued at $10,000 back then and would likely be closer to $50,000+ these days.

I never did get a replacement for those items. Partly because the $1,000 wasn't enough to come close to replacing those seemingly one-of-a-kind items, but also because I couldn't rationalize a "replacement" in lieu of my originals.

Coming to Terms

Loss is a devastating experience. The KĂĽbler-Ross model tells us that human nature is to deal with loss through stages of grief. While this model is normally applied to loss of human life, I can tell you from experience that there is something to be said about the grief of losing seemingly irreplaceable material items as well. The memories that go with material items can be very powerful, and I was young enough when the fire happened that I didn't really know what I was dealing with. It took me years to get over the items I lost and past the grief and depression that ensued.

Among the most important things I lost was my collection of early-1990s Legos which I would estimate a current market value of $10,000 or more. I would actually say the memories of losing my Legos hit me way harder than any amount of money.

I am able to joke now that they melted into one colorful block, but for a long time that comment would have brought me to tears. To drive this emotion home, my wife and I are expecting our first child in April and it will always haunt me that he won't get to inherit my Legos collection (and the majority of my other toys from my childhood) because they were destroyed.

It is true that insurance for all of these items would not have changed the fact that the originals were destroyed and the memories were relegated to my mind, but at least I would have been reasonably compensated to try and replace most of it. If nothing else, instead of $1,000 for all of my items I might have gotten something closer to the $10,000+ value for my memorabilia and sports cards, for example, and I could have tried to reacquire certain pieces of the collection.

In retrospect, when I talk about this with my Mom (who is an insurance agent in the Chicagoland area), we regret not treating my toys and memorabilia more seriously. I have tried to rationalize by saying, "they were just toys," or, "it was just a jersey." But as time passes and I look back, I see the amount of collectible value that was lost on that fateful day of the fire. There were individual items that I took very good care of which would auction for hundreds or more today (ex: I had this Playmobil train).

It's hard to recount and write about what happened, but I want to drive home my experience for you. Insurance would not have prevented what happened with our house fire but it would have led to a better outcome afterwards. I may not have been able to get another picture signed by Michael Jordan, but I might have gotten some compensation for the market value and potentially even been able to replace it with something similar.

My personal experience ultimately led me to buy the insurance for my Magic collection with Collect Insure. For about $250 a year, my policy gives me the piece of mind that my collection is covered should another tragedy strike. This means my little guy will have a better chance of inheriting his Dad's collection, or at least a similar-looking one should something happen. That alone is worth it to me.

Wrapping Up

I hope sharing my personal experience helps paint a picture of what loss to a set of valuables can look like, and makes you at least pause and think about your own.

It goes without saying that nothing is more important than protecting human life, but I must admit that I underestimated the grief I would feel from losing tangible items that held forever memories. Prepping for this article made me reevaluate the monetary and intangible value of certain material items I own, particularly in my Magic collection. While I wouldn't say that all of the $35,000 collection is important to me, there are certain pieces that I fully intend to pass on to my children someday (i.e. cards that I would never sell, trade, etc.).

While buying an insurance policy won't prevent loss from occurring, or the devastation and grief that accompanies a loss, it does help mitigate the long-term impacts, particularly at a financial level. I mentioned the current market value of some of the items I lost in the fire—it still hurts thinking about what could have been.

Those items could have been sold to help pay for college, or my first car, or a down payment on a home. Hell, many of those items could have led to new memories seeing my children play with them someday. Insurance would not have brought back the originals, but it sure as heck would have helped replace them like-for-like, enough so that neither my child nor I would have to think about the fire again.

As it is, I cannot dwell on or regret what happened almost 20 years ago. Rather, I acted on that history by purchasing a collectibles insurance policy for my Magic collection and I made sure my family won’t have to deal with that situation again.

As always, you can reach me with your questions and comments here, on Twitter @ChiStyleGaming, or on the QS Discord.

Tales from the Buylist #7 – The Challenger Decks and Rotation

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A part of me wanted to immediately jump on this article as soon as they announced the Challenger decklists last Monday, but I restrained myself as best as I could. I decided I would take a week to think on my picks and drink in the data on all the cards that might take a hit from the huge supply injection we're about to see. My list of reprints that I thought would be likely was mostly on-target. I compiled this list on February 14th in our Discord, as I was confident in sharing what I thought would be easy reprints.

While I'm incredibly surprised that we didn't receive Vraska's Contempt or Search for Azcanta, I completely understand Wizards skipping the Teferi, Hero of Dominaria reprint. Lyra Dawnbringer is also a worthy mention as a miss here, being one of the better and more costly mythics from Dominaria.

It's entirely possible that the density of rares required to make a worthwhile Esper or Jeskai Control list may have been too high for one $29.99 product when a single Teferi, Hero of Dominaria costs more than the deck itself. However, I'm overall happy with what we're receiving for the cost of each challenger deck. These will be easy to upgrade and turn into competitive decks until Fall rolls around.

Hits

Of the cards I mentioned above, I expected these cards the most. The Challenger Decks are an excellent product to position to new players at an event such as Friday Night Magic, and creature strategies are great for teaching the basics of more competitive play. These cards were quite expensive pieces that, except for Carnage Tyrant, were usually registered as a playset for Standard events.  If you haven't attempted to do so already, dumping these to buylists will be the fastest and most reliable way to get out of whatever undesirable copies you have. As someone who works in a buylist department, I'm steeling myself for the inevitable onslaught of these cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for History of Benalia

There will be two copies of History of Benalia in the white weenie deck, United Assault, which will likely result in a huge price drop. Getting the full four will likely cost under $10 once they drop, and is arguably the most significant upgrade to the deck. Legion's Landing is in a similar spot, and will likely be even less.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Carnage Tyrant

Carnage Tyrant was one of the most terrifying threats to face down for many decks and was climbing toward a $50 price tag before the announcement of the Challenger Deck's return. This in tandem with the metagame shift brought about by Ravnica Allegiance caused the price to go on a downswing. Once supply is increased by the inevitable crack and resale of these decks, I estimate this will be an easy get for $5 or lower by the end of April. TCG Player sellers are already beginning to race to the bottom in order to offload this once expensive mythic.

While not seeing widespread play, the six mana dinosaur has been featured in Modern sideboards of decks like RG Valakut and Ponza as a potent threat against UW Control. I think there's an opportunity here for long term growth because of this, but I'd be waiting for Modern Horizons to drop before I made the decision to start snatching these up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rekindling Phoenix

Rekindling Phoenix was by far the most expensive piece in Mono Red decks over the past year, and showed little sign of slowing down. As with all the cards I'm going to list here, it's on the downswing already. I think this Lightning Aggro list will be the most potent of the four for current Standard play, featuring a lot of powerful playsets including Goblin Chainwhirler. I don't think there will be much of a home for this card outside of Standard as it is a bit slow for eternal formats. If you're interested in this card at all as an investment spec, I would consider waiting until the Fall when rotation occurs.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jadelight Ranger

Jadelight Ranger is one of the most solid creatures to be playing in Standard right now, recently showing up to great success in GP Kyoto's finals. Expect these to be around the $2 range once we get a lot more of them available in the next two weeks. I don't have much hope for this card seeing much eternal play outside of something like a fringe Simic Merfolk list, but I'm very open to someone changing my mind on this.

Now let's get to the cards I was completely wrong about.

Misses

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Now to address the elephant in the room. Choosing not to include Teferi, Hero of Dominaria in one of these decks is an interesting move. Teferi is an all-star planeswalker seeing play in multiple formats in UW based control strategies, and for good reason. It draws cards, removes troublesome permanents, and can be a win condition all on its own. Well, with multiple copies anyway. This card will go down as one of the most powerful walkers of all time, and its price tag will likely reflect that for the foreseeable future. I was super confident that this was an auto-include for the Challenger Series, though there is a slim chance this is a signal that there will be another product featuring Teferi in the near future.

As with all standard powerhouses, we'll see a pretty significant dip around the time of rotation when players start moving these to make next season's buy-in a bit cheaper. Teferi was on a decline in the past month, but I expect a moderate rebound going into Spring. I don't expect this card to ever fall below $20, even if it saw a significant reprint. However, I may be underestimating just how many copies of this card actually exist.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Search for Azcanta

Search for Azcanta was probably my top pick for inclusion, and I was very quick to move my existing copies into trade credit via my employer once the Challenger Decks were a known entity. I don't know just how hard I may be punished for that decision just yet, but I chose to turn all of my UW Control cards from Standard into credit towards foil Khans Fetchlands instead. I think I made out okay so far, but we'll see what the next few months bring. Reasonable pricing is in the high teens, and will likely rebound around $25.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lyra Dawnbringer

Lyra Dawnbringer felt like another auto-include for these decks, but no dice on this one either. Many like to make the comparison to Baneslayer Angel on this card, for obvious reasons. Lyra is another good example of a card that has fallen a bit out of favor in Standard that is at a relative low. You can expect to pay around $10 for a copy, which will likely be its price for the remainder of its Standard legality. As an investment target, I think the casual appeal of Angels as a tribe and its viability in Modern UW Control sideboards will make this a solid pickup either way.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vraska's Contempt

Last up is Vraska's Contempt. It seems strange not to have at least one copy of these in the BG deck, Deadly Discovery. Most of the Golgari and Sultai lists that see play at least run one copy, and I would consider this such a vital tool for the deck to have when facing down opposing Teferis or Vivien Reid. At any rate, these are floating around the $10 range and will almost surely see play for the rest of this Standard.

Unexpected Visitors

These are all excellent inclusions, but I'm genuinely surprised that they were included in these lists at all. I expected very few if any Guilds of Ravnica cards to be featured in these lists, but it's a sign of good faith that there will be some future value in these lists post rotation. I'm a bit tired of talking about Arclight Phoenix at this point, but I'm certainly glad that they printed it here to make it more available to those that want to play with them. I think this choice along with the two Niv-Mizzet, Parun included in the Izzet Arcane Tempo list make this my clear choice for future value among the four decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Overgrown Tomb

I'd like to note that Overgrown Tomb is the lone Shockland between these decklists, and this printing will almost surely make it the least expensive of the 10 overall across the three sets it's featured in. $5 seems to be the going rate for one of these, but this could easily fall down to $2 once peak supply is reached.  Given the strength of BG Rock lists in Modern and the consistency of Sultai decks in Standard, these will be an excellent pickup.

Bring it on Home

Wizards has managed to put out another solid product here, and I expect moderate demand for these decks. I don't think we'll see a situation where any one of these decks is price higher than the others like the last iteration, but Arcane Tempo could make a strong case with the excellent value it provides in Arclight Phoenix, three copies of Sulfur Falls, and three copies of Entrancing Melody.

I'm already seeing a lot of the reprints hitting buylists already, and I only expect to see these numbers decrease. Do your worst, #mtgfinance.

Pickups (post release)

  • Overgrown Tomb
  • Arclight Phoenix
  • Sulfur Falls
  • Entrancing Melody
  • Carnage Tyrant

Holds

  • Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
  • Search for Azcanta
  • Lyra Dawnbringer

Folds

  • Literally everything else in these decks.

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

 

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