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Insider: QS Cast #119 – Invitational Success [Unlocked]

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Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Magic Invitational Success and it's wide effects it can have on every corner of Magic. It's tangible financial impact.
  • Standard Rotation
  • MTG Arena
  • Insider Questions - Modern

Cards to Consider


*This Podcast was Recorded on 03/28/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

Not-So-Quiet Speculations: Some Cards I’ve Put Money On

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So my first two articles had a great amount of feedback from everyone and I honestly appreciate it.  A couple comments seemed to come up a few times, though: "What are your specs?" or something similar such as, "Show us some real numbers."

So I figured, why not? I don't think it will hurt anyone or anything too much to give you all a bit of insight to my speculation bin.  I'll do my best to explain why I have looked at each card, why I bought the amount that I did, how much I bought in at, where I purchased, and what my end goal is.  Hopefully this will provide something helpful for everyone in the finance game.  Before I start, here's a few tidbits about me and my buying/selling:

  • I typically spec in Standard, Modern, and Commander (in that order).
  • Standard specs are often meant for a quick flip anywhere from within 24 hours to about six months out.  I don't like to hold Standard much longer than that unless some information changes the game plan (i.e., banning, leak, etc).
  • With, Modern I often like to flip quickly too – it's such a crazy format sometimes that holding something for very long, unless there's a great reason (like MH1 specs), is just not worth it to me.
  • Commander cards I will often hold until I feel they have enough value to sell.  I've held Commander cards in the past for over a year.  I put them in a separate box so it's easy to forget about them and unless something crazy happens (like Feather or Teysa buyouts) I only check in on them about once a month.
  • I am a big fan of penny-stock type specs.  If I can get a card for bulk and flip it for over $1, then I'm all about it.  My income doesn't allow me to make larger purchases like investing in the Masterpiece Series or fetches.  I can purchase them, but I am not a fan of holding one or two of a card just to resell it.  I can buy two Polluted Deltas or for the same price buy six or more Smothering Tithes.
  • I'm not perfect and neither are you.  Specs don't always succeed and everyone should prepare for that.  If you can justify your reasons behind a card, then by all means go buy it... but just know that there is a chance it could fail (I still have a stack of Summoning Traps laying around, and it's slightly depressing).

Stop talking and show us your cards

Okay.

First up, we have the legendary sorcery cards!  More specifically, non-foil versions of Karn's Temporal Sundering and Yawgmoth's Vile Offering.  I don't have the liquidity to invest in foils just yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn's Temporal Sundering

As a blue player, this card caught my eye right away.  Take an extra turn? Yes please!  Sundering came on my radar right away with the Dominaria spoiler season, but I had a hunch that buying in to it during preorders was a trap.

Preordering can often be tricky, and I've been burned on it too many times.  This card hit bulk not long after Dominaria's release, and I knew it was EDH gold.  All of the legendary sorcery cards (in my opinion) are EDH gold, they just need some time to grow.  If you look at the history of "extra turn" cards, they all seem to become popular eventually.  With the recent spoiling of God-Eternal Kefnet this card jumped back on my radar and I doubled my stock.  There's actually a combo with those two cards (and a third) in the new standard, so maybe it will see play?

  • Stock: 40
  • Bought from: 30x TCGplayer, 10x LGS
  • Price: TCGPlayer $.36, LGS $.25
  • End goal: Buy-list for over $1.  If it goes over $2, I will list on TCGplayer and/or Facebook
There was an error retrieving a chart for Yawgmoth's Vile Offering

This card is the same appeal, but in a color-shifted mindset.  Black cards that return permanents are often great and have large impacts on the game, especially in Commander.  Not only is reanimation great, but a card that doesn't specify which graveyard you can take from is even better.  Add on to that the chance to grab a planeswalker and you have some spicy tech.

But we're not finished – you also get to destroy a target creature or planeswalker if you so choose, and for only five mana.  This card can find a home in so many Commander decks and has the potential to see play in the upcoming Standard meta.  With the amount of legendary cards that could see play, there's no reason you should be afraid of the legendary sorcery caveat on these cards.  I don't feel as confident in this card as I do with Sundering, but that might be because I am a blue player at heart and I love extra turns.

  • Stock: 20
  • Bought from: 25x TCGplayer, 5x LGS
  • Price: TCGplayer $.55, LGS $.25
    End goal: Buy-list for over $1. If it goes over $2, I will list on TCGplayer and/or Facebook
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ravager Wurm

Ravager Wurm has been something that I've been watching since Allegiance spoilers.  It started pretty high during preorders and has been falling ever since.  In a standard meta that is very aggressive, this card doesn't see much play, but it has so much potential to be amazing – consider playing it alongside Rhythm of the Wild or Vivien's Arkbow.  Let's go over the checklist:

  • Mythic
  • Six or less mana means it's fairly on curve for most decks running red or green
  • 4/5 means it doesnt die to lava coil/lightning strike/etc
  • 4/5 also means it can block a lot of things
  • Riot
  • ETB trigger is relevant

Does anyone remember RG monsters?  This reminds me a bit of the giant curve of creatures that can come down fairly fast.  Not only that, but with the recent spoiling of the new Boar God Ilharg, the Raze-Boar, this card could be nuts.  It just needs the right deck to succeed.

  • Stock: 35
  • Bought from: TCGPlayer
  • Price: $.30 (and still buying under $.50)
  • End goal: My hope is that this hits $5, but if it doesn't, then I'd like to at least sell for $2
There was an error retrieving a chart for Lapse of Certainty

Lapse of Certainty is the first foil that I bought in at with the goal of investment.

Here's a secret I'll share with you... watch videos from The Command Zone right when they come out.  Not only are they pretty cool to watch, but you can keep an eye out for crazy tech.  These videos often cause spikes and buyouts, so it can be financially beneficial to be as ahead of the game as possible (there's an MTG pun in there somewhere).

Recently, a new video posted and I scrolled through it searching for something spicy before even enjoying the video.  I had no clue if this would be the card to hit, so I decided to take a risk.  Risk... it can be dangerous but sometimes rewarding.

  • Stock: 11
  • Bought from: SCG, as they were the only ones that had multiples at the price I liked.
  • Price: $.79
  • End goal: I started with 11, I'm down to nine because I sold two at $3.99 on TCG about a week ago.  Now they seem to have spiked, and the lowest on TCG as of the writing of this article is just under $10.  In all honesty, because I want the money, I'll probably post them on TCG for about $8.

Now that you know all of my secrets...

Well, not all of them.  A magician never gives away all of their secrets.  I think I'll do an update to this article in a few months, as well as give another insight to some more of my specs after War of the Spark is well into its Standard life.  I hope this helps some of you understand my frame of mind, as well as help you figure out where you want to go with your financial game.  'Til next time, folks!


Pat's Predictions

  • Alright I'll give you one more... Domri, Chaos Bringer needs a home. Gruul Warriors is seeing a lot more play and could evolve to something more in the coming months.
  • Gruul Spellbreaker is a four-of in that same deck.  Just a thought...
  • London Mulligan is happening and I don't have a whole lot of faith in it, so don't hold those Serum Powders too closely.

Ravnica Allegiance Power Rankings: Rare Edition

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As promised, today I'm back to help you make sound speculation decisions on Ravnica Allegiance cards. In the past this took the form of the popular Financial Power Rankings series. I hope I can continue to do that series, but it may need some re-imagining to account for some new, emerging realities of MTGO finance.

An important difference between then and now is that mythic rares now operate on a very different financial schedule from the rest of the set. This is because mythic rares are the gateway for redeeming sets. Now that redemption is the primary driver of demand, more of their value is bound up in their potential for redemption than ever before.

I am thus squeamish about investing in mythic rares from redeemable sets—at least until we see how Ravnica Allegiance shakes out, so we can use it to predict what will happen with future sets. The same is not true for rares and uncommons. Now is a good time to invest in those since they're at peak supply.

Also remember that the standard common and uncommon slot was removed from the Treasure Chests, which means that no steady stream of Pteramanders will be flooding the market as they would have in years past.

Onto the Rankings!

10) Deputy of Detention


Current Price: $1.54
Risk: Moderate-High
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 25%

I'm much lower on this card than the market is. Right now it is the most valuable rare in Ravnica Allegiance, as it is seeing significant play in Modern and some play in Standard.

Depending on the demands of the future metagames in those formats, Deputy of Detention could become a $2.50 - $3.50 card. Its floor is being held up by Modern demand, so if Bant Spirits and Humans decide it's not worth a slot in the future, expect the card's value to plummet.

Grade: D+

9 & 8) Growth-Chamber Guardian & Incubation Druid

Current Price: $0.10
Risk: Low
Potential: Moderate-High
Chance of Success: 5%

These green two-drops are both powerful cards. Neither, however, has managed to emerge as clearly better than their competition for the two-drop slot in a variety of decks. Merfolk Branchwalker helps support a Wildgrowth Walker explore package; Thorn Lieutenant is great against Cry of the Carnarium; Paradise Druid will join all of these green twos in a few short weeks.

Nevertheless, depending on metagames and individual card synergies, each of these could see an increase in play, and likewise see bumps in price. Neoform is interesting with both, for example. Guardian is better than the others in Gruul Aggro, and Incubation Druid could see a home in Modern at some point.

I like both at a dime, and I could see them eclipsing $0.50 should metagames shake out a certain way.

Growth-Chamber Guardian Grade: D+
Incubation Druid Grade: C-

7) Unbreakable Formation

Current Price: $0.10
Risk: Low
Potential: Low-Moderate
Chance of Success: 5%

Unbreakable Formation is a powerful card; indeed, alongside Benalish Marshal, it is a main reason why White Aggro can compete with the other tier one decks of the format.

The main reason this card is not higher on this list is that most decks only run two of them, which limits its growth potential as a speculation. I suspect we would need to see a few different white aggro decks gain traction in the meta for this card to realize real gains.

Remember when Heroic Intervention skyrocketed to $2.00, though? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Grade: C-

 6) Electrodominance

Current Price: $0.49
Risk: Low-Moderate
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 20%

Electrodominance was a card that so many were excited about, for both Standard and Modern. It has stayed above bulk thus far because it is a powerful card in a tier 2 strategy in Modern, As Foretold.

I think this card is likely not going to be good enough for Standard, but there is always an off-chance it becomes so. If Electrodominance is to double in price, more likely than not As Foretold will need to become tier 1. With Modern Horizons coming soon, who knows how Modern will be shaken up.

Grade: C-

5) Rix Maadi Reveler

Current Price: $0.06
Risk: Low
Potential: Low-Moderate
Chance of Success: 15%

Rix Maadi Reveler is one of the best cards that doesn't see play in Standard—that's because no midrange deck in the format uses Rakdos colors. What Reveler needs to be successful is for a Jund or Grixis midrange deck to become tier one, in which case it would be the premier two-drop available in this shell.

Given the love that Grixis is getting in War of the Spark, I'm optimistic about its chances to find a place in the metagame. If it does, I'd expect Reveler's price to rise between $0.25 and $0.50.

Grade: C

4) Shocklands

Current Price: $0.50-$0.90
Risk: Low
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 33%

The Ravnica shocklands will be incredibly important for Standard mana bases for the next year and a half. Traditionally, important land cycles like this always go up after their sets have been drafted.

Given the large supply of these lands from previous printings plus a reduced overall digital demand, I'm not entirely confident that these lands will go up in price. The risk is low, though, and they are all quite low right now.

At minimum I'd say that you should buy your playsets now. The key to speculating on them might reside in your ability to pick unpopular color combinations that could see increased play in the future. My eyes are on Blood Crypt, as I think Mardu Aristocrats and Grixis Control could both become players in this upcoming Standard.

Grade: C

 3) Bedevil

Current Price: $0.14
Risk: Low
Potential: Low-Moderate
Chance of Success: 40%

Despite Theros flooding the market with Hero's Downfall as if straight of out Genesis 7, Hero's Downfall generally held steady between $2.00 and $4.00 during Theros-Khans Standard. Bedevil has settled slightly above bulk because Rakdos as a color combination has found no home in the Standard metagame. I expect that to change after WAR releases, and of course who knows what the Standard landscape next rotation will bring.

I'm going to buy some now, and if we get no replacement for Vraska's Contempt in the upcoming sets, I'll likely double down before rotation. Low risk modest reward. Two colors limits its potential.

Grade: C+

2) Cindervines

Current Price: $1.24
Risk: Low-Moderate
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 50%

Cindervines has surprised me. It sees extensive play in Legacy and Modern, where it can punish Delver and Storm strategies in addition to its ostentatious function of hating on artifacts and enchantments. It is thus the very definition of a good sideboard card: cheap, potent, and effective against multiple styles of deck.

What's holding the card down is that it hasn't seen significant amounts of Standard play. Currently it is a mainstay in Gruul Aggro, and earlier this year some mono-green and mono-red decks were splashing specifically for this card.

Like Destructive Revelry before it, Cindervines is a premier sideboard tool that players will choose over lesser artifact and enchantment hate while its legal. I believe it's likely the card will rise modestly to $1.50 or $1.75. If Standard breaks a certain way, I could see it rise up to $2.00 or even $2.50.

Grade: C+

1) Tithe Taker

Current Price: $0.24
Risk: Low
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 50%

Like Growth-Chamber Guardian and Incubation Druid, Tithe Taker is competing with a host of two-drop threats for spots in both tier-one (White Aggro) and tier two (Selesnya and Azorius Aggro) decks. Tithe Taker has, however, managed to stay above bulk the entirety of its time in the main draft set, indicating that it is a step above most other white twos and can see play in a variety of strategies.

Its main weakness is a real weakness—it gets no benefit against Cry of the Carnarium—but I think it has the chops to rise to $0.50 or $1.00 over the coming months.

Grade: C+

 Wrapping Up

Thank you for reading. There's very little daylight between #1 through #3, hence why they all share the same rating.

In a few days I'll publish my financial power rankings for the uncommons of Ravnica Allegiance. Don't worry—there will be some As and Bs there. The grades for these rares are lower than usual simply because of the increased uncertainty that MTGO has experienced since late last year.

Please leave your comments down below or in the QS Discord. Until next time, good luck and have fun in your games!

Final Check-in: Pre-London Cleanup

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This is a very busy week. War of the Spark is now completely revealed, and so I have a few final cards to discuss. There have been a number of interesting cards for Modern, but we haven't seen any obvious all-stars. Of course, that may be a lot to ask for, and more role-players are always welcome. The other thing is that Mythic Championship London is this weekend. That tournament's results are critical for the future of Izzet Phoenix in Modern. However, an even more important factor will be the impact of the proposed change to the mulligan rule. While the proof is in the proverbial pudding, I've done some testing on my own, and have concerns about London.

Final Check-in

Before all that, let's take stock one last time of the metagame before the Mythic Championship. Unfortunately, there is currently no Day 2 data for GP Yokohama. I'm not sure why there wasn't one this week, though the lack of a Day 2 for GP Niagara also may indicate a policy change. Therefore, there's no way to tell if the real concern about Izzet Phoenix's Day 2 presence remains valid. There were five copies in the Top 32 and one more in the Top 8. I have noticed that non-US GPs have had fewer Phoenix lists Top 8 than the American ones, so this might not mean anything.

The Top 8 was won by Hardened Scales, which is fascinating, since it had to dodge three Dredge decks. Most Dredge decks run Ancient Grudge and Nature's Claim, so I can't imagine Grafdigger's Cage or any artifact creature surviving long. Fortunately for Scales, it did dodge Dredge and thus skated to victory. Dredge hasn't done that well in previous GPs, so I'm curious why it was so successful this weekend. The sideboard hate in the listed decks isn't really lacking, so maybe it just ran well.

In any case, the overall metagame in Yokohama appears to be consistent with what we've seen previously. This in turn means I expect to see the same decks in the same frequency this weekend in London. I do predict that if the observed trends continue through London, Wizards will be obligated to intervene.

Card Discussion: Narset's Reversal

Last week, I said that Dovin's Veto would revolutionize control decks. First, it forces changes in the mirror, because landing and riding a planeswalker to victory is far harder. Second, it stands to change combo matchups, since Pact of Negation no longer wins counter wars. The control vs. combo dynamic will have to change again, because in the intervening week, Narset's Reversal was spoiled. While its applications are very narrow, I expect Reversal to have a huge impact for combo decks.

Reversal copies an instant or sorcery, then returns the original copy to its owner's hand. As Jordan mentioned, this gives you the option to turn opposing spells on their owners. I'm a bit skeptical of this usage. The original spell will be cast again, so it's like kicking the can down the road with upside. Copying Path to Exile or Fatal Push with Reversal is like making the opponent pay an extra mana and sacrifice a creature to kill your creature. It's not bad, but not exactly a game changer. I think the real value lies in redefining counter wars.

Just like Misdirection, this can be used to counter counterspells. Reversal remains on the stack while it's resolving, and when the copy is made, Reversal is a momentarily-legal target. Upon resolution, Reversal leaves the stack, and the copy will fizzle for lack of a target. Since this doesn't actually counter the counter, it should only be used to force a game-winning spell through. A more straightforward use is to simply to use it on the instant or sorcery being countered, à la Remand. While this does only work for instants and sorceries, it will also result in fewer judge calls.

A Place for Everything

While I could definitely see control using Reversal to answer opposing Vetoes, I think that combo will be its real home. A deck like Ad Nauseam needs to resolve the namesake card no matter what. Reversal provides a way out of a counter war and can potentially defend against Thoughtseize. Pact of Negation will be better most of the time, but in a world where Veto is present, Reversal stands to be prime sideboard material.

A more intriguing use for Reversal is in Storm. In addition to the previously mentioned utility of getting around counterspells, Storm could integrate Reversal into its combo. Copies aren't cast, and therefore storm won't trigger, meaning you can't Reversal an opposing Grapeshot and win on the spot. However, targeting your own Grapeshot means it can be recast with additional Storm. This opens the possibility of forgoing Past in Flames entirely, an attractive option in a world full of graveyard hate. It does lose the synergy with Gifts Ungiven, but there may be other options. Watch Caleb Scherer closely; if this is a viable strategy, he'll know.

Card Discussion: Finale of Devastation

The next card is Finale of Devastation. The first half of the card is a better Green Sun's Zenith for an extra green. My testing indicated that Zenith's power was much higher than expected, and now there's a fixed version. I can't imagine Wizards would allow the two cards to coexist, since the fear of too much tutoring is very real. I was skeptical of an unban before, now I'm writing it off entirely.

While Finale can still find Dryad Arbor to accelerate mana, it's much slower, and jumping from two to three is less dramatic than one to two. It may be a thing anyway, but it won't be as good. Therefore a lot of the appeal from Zenith is lost here. However, Finale compensates with some extra text. On the front end, Finale can find any creature, and it can also be used to reanimate creatures. The first part is very good, but I'm skeptical of the latter. Since you have to pump the creature's mana cost into Finale to cast it, it's not saving mana like Unburial Rites. Additionally, there's very little difference between searching the library or graveyard for most creatures, so the reanimation clause is mostly a nice feature.

Obvious Home

Deck that seems like it would be the best home for Finale is Elves. The deck already plays a lot of tutors and generates unreal amounts of mana with Elvish Archdruid and Heritage Druid. I noted in my Zenith test that Elves really liked the extra tutoring and while the explosive starts are great, the real power of the deck comes from tutoring a lot. I tried out Finale in the proxied Zenith test deck and while it was noticeably worse than Zenith, it's not enough to be disqualifying. I didn't use Zenith to accelerate with Arbor much anyway, so in practical terms, the only difference was a slightly more prohibitive cost. This tells me that Finale will see Modern play.

Side Benefits

As compensation for the extra mana, Finale isn't restricted to green creatures. Every creature is on the table, though take that with the whole salt shaker. Thanks to the extra green, Finale won't be played outside heavy-green decks, and so will mostly find green creatures. I'm also having a hard time coming up with other colored creatures that I want to search for.

Searching for non-green creatures puts Finale in competition with Chord of Calling. Chord is an instant, but it also costs one more green. However, convoke means it doesn't actually cost any more mana. Being an instant also opens the door for Restoration Angel tricks or Spellskite protection, which probably keeps Finale out of Kiki-Chord and similar decks.

Hatebears is another possibility, but finding small creatures is Collected Company's job. Tutoring for Thalia, Guardian of Thraben or Gaddock Teeg is very good, but Company provides so much value that it's a tough fight. The versatility is great, but the competition is very stiff. I realize that the tutoring clause isn't the only text on the card, but I'd argue it's the only relevant text.

Cool but Impractical

I've skipped over Finale's second clause so far because it is a mystery to me. I get what it's going for, but I don't see the point. I dump an incredible amount of mana into the spell, find Progenitus or something else huge and functionally unblockable, give it and whatever else is still untapped at least +10/+10, and then TIMMY SMASH! and I have a hugely satisfying win with a great story to tell my friends. If that was all Wizards wanted, I'm pleased to say they succeeded. But why should I bother?

There's no strategically sound reason to go that big in Modern. The clause only triggers if X is 10 or more, so it takes a minimum of 12 mana to happen. If I'm dumping twelve mana into a spell to find a huge creature, it should win the game anyway. Besides, I wouldn't cast Finale for 10GG or more in the first place. Tutoring for Ezuri, Renegade Leader or Craterhoof Behemoth accomplishes the same thing but cheaper and with trample.

For the other decks that could produce 12 mana in a normal game, it's not a very necessary addition. Searching up Primeval Titan and then immediately swinging for 16 sounds great, and should win the game, but it's not likely to happen. A Valakut deck with 12 mana available should have mostly won by that point anyway. Amulet struggles to get that much mana without first resolving a Titan, and already has ways to win immediately after casting the creature. Besides, Summoner's Pact is a far more efficient and versatile, especially post-board. Tron could easily hit that much mana and find Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, but Ancient Stirrings does that already.

Intriguing Mulligan

Finally, it's my turn to comment on the London Mulligan. This proposed change has been met with some cautious optimism, since in theory reducing the instance of non-games improves the experience and therefore the game. My worry has been that this will backfire. Arguably, Magic only works because of the risk of non-games from bad hands forces players to moderate their deck construction. I've heard that Arena players are exploiting the hand selection system to play aggressively low land counts. If the new mulligan reduces variance as it seems to be designed to, that opens a huge risk for exploitation. The string of articles mathematically proving that it benefits specific-cards decks like Tron increased my concern.

However, I didn't want to say anything until I had some actual experience with the mulligan. My experience has been very neutral, and I can see what Wizards is going for. However, other players are finding that the London Mulligan is very useful for some very worrying decks. If their personal experiences accurately reflect the metagame reality, then this could be a very big mistake. They're arguably already exploiting the new system until it breaks.

Tale from the Trenches

When the London Mulligan was announced, a Grishoalbrand player at my LGS, Black Gold, swore that if it were implemented he would grind leagues until he 5-0'd so many with turn 2 kills Wizards would have to admit their mistake. In preparation, he spent about a week trying to make a version that had a turn 1 kill work in paper, but it never came together. Then Wizards decided that one tournament wasn't enough data and initiated a trial period on MTGO. I caught up with Ken last week to ask him if he'd followed through with his threat. The answer, surprisingly, was kinda.

Ken has been grinding competitive leagues and claims to be blitzing through them and racking up the 5-0's. I can't confirm it, but I also have no reason to doubt him. However, he hasn't been using Grishoalbrand. Instead, he's been playing Narset Cannon. His reasoning was partially that it's really cool and weird and he enjoys it. The more important reason is that it abuses the London Mulligan better than Grishoalbrand thanks to its inclusion of Serum Powder. Specifically, he not only needs specific cards in hand to win but also certain ones in his library and going to London favors and rewards decks like that.

Narset Cannon wasn't actually a deck beforehand, because it's too brittle and inconsistent, but Ken says the London Mulligan changed that because now he can mulligan and sculpt until he finds a really busted hand and win on turn 2. And he has been winning on turn 2. He didn't have statistics for me, but he claimed that his turn 2 win-rate is surprisingly high. He'd seen an uptick in turn 2's while still on Grishoalbrand but not sufficient to actually stick with the deck. Admittedly, if he doesn't win on turn 2 he frequently doesn't win at all, but for him that's a small price to pay. Testimonials aren't data points, but it does support all the theory crafting's conclusions which in turn suggests validity.

Some Positives and a Warning Sign

I have not been grinding leagues and don't play that much MTGO in general. However, the experiences I have had and some testing I've done on the side raise troubling questions. As someone who primarily plays Aether Vial decks, the main change I've noticed is that I don't have to mulligan as much. The actual gameplay didn't dramatically improve for my decks, but over a two week stretch playing paper Magic with fair decks I had to mulligan past 6 in ~10% of games. During the same stretch on MTGO using the London Mulligan it happened ~5%. I also found the decision on which card to send easier than expected. I thought that there would be a lot of strategic decision making and potential to wreck myself, but in practice, it was obvious what the correct choice was every time.

However, in that same period, I also saw an uptick in glass-cannon decks. I'm used to hitting weirder-than-Grishoalbrand decks in about once every fifty matches. I've seen them roughly once every ten since the trial began. I don't know if this is just players assuming that the mulligan benefits these decks and all the talk has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, it's just me, or if this is a real thing. If the latter is the case, that is very worrying, and will probably lead to the abandonment of the new mulligan.

Judgement Week

I really hope that Ken's experience with the London Mulligan is a fluke, and it doesn't advantage Broken-Hand-Only decks as much as he claims. However, my experience can't actually refute his claim either. I'll be watching London closely next week. Hopefully, I'll be able to report that my anxieties were only that and Wizards knows what they're doing.

Identifying Specs in a Noisy Marketplace

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We’re in the midst of a very exciting time for Magic, and it’s being reflected by the market. Everything from the popularity of Magic Arena, to the debut of Magic as a serious esport, to exciting releases like War of the Spark and Modern Horizons, has created a buying frenzy.

Prices have increased on a wide variety of cards, and more to come are likely. When so many cards are rising, how do you predict the next card to rise? There are endless cards to consider, nearly as much information out there to sort through, and of course plenty of opinions if you’re looking for them.

It’s impossible to know everything, but I’ve found there are some good clues available that can inform buys. Last week I encountered some clues and used them to inform some of my own specs, so today I’ll explore my process.

Foil Movement

I try to keep it simple, and one obvious thing to look for is when a foil version of a card spikes. Feather, the Redeemed has spurred a ton of Commander spikes. The foil versions of these cards tend to move first, since they are the juiciest targets for early adopters in the know.

In the case of a card like Mirrorwing Dragon, the foil spiked on April 9th, two days before the nonfoil spiked April 11. I anticipate similar movement on other spiked foils, which is why I’ve taken interest in Veilstone Amulet.

The card's foil spiked last week past $15, but the paper version is still under $1. It’s already showing signs of creeping up, and I see plenty of upside on this Future Sight rare. So far it doesn’t seem to be catching steam as a staple of the Feather, the Redeemed deck on EDHRec, and it’s not going to explode like Mirrorwing Dragon, but I don’t see much downside.

I picked up a couple dozen played copies in the $0.50-$0.75 range, and expect I’ll be able to turn them around for a couple bucks at some point this year. At worst, in that condition they are currently buylistable for $0.40 or $0.50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Veilstone Amulet

MTGO Price Spikes

Another place to look for clues is Magic Online price movement. Its metagame moves faster than paper, so it tends to predict the future of paper. An increase in price and popularity there could precede a paper increase.

This week I couldn’t help but notice the spike of Fury of the Horde. I see two factors driving the price increase. One is that it’s part of the Narset, Enlightened Master combo deck that Magic Pro League Member Piotr "kanister" Glowgowski hyped last week, a deck that becomes better with the London Mulligan rule.

Two, it works well with Ilharg, the Raze-Boar for getting an extra attack out of whatever it puts into play, an interaction that could be used in Commander or even Modern. This puts a lot of pressure on an obscure and cheap card, and the price is already showing clear signs of increase.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury of the Horde

It does have a reprint that will help keep the nonfoil price in check. But if Fury of the Horde were to break out in Modern, like at the upcoming Mythic Championship, the price would likely explode. I like its prospects, so I searched online for the cheapest copies available and picked up a few dozen of the two versions under $2. Both look to be growing since, so I’m confident they’ll continue to grow and give me a good selling opportunity before long.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Commandeer

In the same cycle is Commandeer, which also spiked on MTGO last week. This might be attributed to the fact that a new style of Mono-Blue deck appeared and 5-0ed a league with three-of in the sideboard, but I believe the card has become better in general due to the London Mulligan.

The biggest winner from the change seems to be Urzatron, and players will have to take increasingly extreme measures to beat it. Commandeering a Karn Liberated is a huge blowout that Tron has little counterplay against, so I could see it rising in popularity as a way to beat the deck.

It’s a very unique card with low print run, and I think if it became any sort of real Modern staple or broke out in London the price would skyrocket. That plus its low chance for reprint and casual demand mean I like its future. I also like its relatively high buylist price. I moved in on a few playsets of near-mint copies at $7.50, with a buylist price of $5.50. It looks like it’s already nudged up and I can sell for $6.40, so things are looking good.

The London Mulligan

The most reliable way to speculate is to follow the metagame and determine the direction it is headed. The most important factor for the competitive metagame right now is the London Mulligan rule. It debuts at the Pro Tour this weekend, but it’s already live on Magic Online. It’s too early to tell the true impact of the change, but by looking at results it’s clear there are some shifts occurring.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Tron seems to be a big winner from the London mulligan rule, and the prices of its staples are increasing online accordingly. For that reason I like picking up paper versions of any Tron staples.

Another approach is to target anti-Tron cards. Fulminator Mage looks like a great target in this vein. It was once a $40 card—the Ultimate Masters version looks like a tremendous bargain at $8.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fulminator Mage

Now is probably also a good time to pick up Alpine Moon for the long-term at its current price below $1.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Alpine Moon

Finally, there has been a steep increase in Colorless Eldrazi decks, which take advantage of Serum Powder and Gemstone Caverns. While there may be more to grow on these cards, they have already seen spikes.

For that reason a better investment might be in the Eldrazi creatures themselves. These have all been relatively cheap for a long time, and are bound to start growing eventually. Thought-Knot Seer is actually up $1 to $7 in the past six weeks, so surpassing its previous high of $9 a year ago seems likely.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought-Knot Seer

Modern Horizons: The Next Rising Tide

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Back in December I wrote a provocative piece on the market cap of Magic. The premise was simple: much like calculating the market capitalization of a company, one could estimate the summed product of cards printed and their secondary value on the market.

With print-run data unavailable after the first couple years of Magic, this calculation is impossible to do with any precision. However focusing on the first few sets alone led to staggering conclusions regarding Magic’s market cap.

Well, I have some news for everybody: the market cap of Magic is about to climb yet again. The tide is likely to rise, lifting all ships as we’ve seen numerous times in the past.

What is the catalyst that will drive the increase? How am I so confident? It all comes down to one thing: Modern Horizons.

Past Modern Reprint Sets

In the past, Modern reprint sets (i.e. Modern Masters, Modern Masters 2015, Modern Masters 2017) have failed to make the format more affordable. Sure, the third reprint of Tarmogoyf finally kept the creature’s price under $100. Cards that were expensive primarily due to their initial print-run and lack of reprints rather than their ubiquity in Modern also dropped notably in price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Linvala, Keeper of Silence

But the argument could be made that these Modern reprint sets actually drove card prices higher across the board.

First of all, you have the aptly named “Tarmogoyf effect.” That is, if a player interested in Modern opens a Tarmogoyf, they may be more inclined to go out and buy three more to play in Modern rather than sell their opened copy. Instead of increasing market supply, the net effect is a decrease. This may have happened with the original Modern Masters set, but I think the effect has diminished since then.

More likely, what’s happening is that cards that dodge reprint in these reprint sets are spiking, replacing reprinted cards to become the most expensive cards in Modern. Once upon a time Tarmogoyf was the most expensive card in Modern. Liliana of the Veil probably had a turn in that spot. Even Horizon Canopy was in the top three at one point before it was reprinted.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horizon Canopy

Now that these cards have all seen reprinting, different cards take the top spot. Even though it doesn’t show up as one of the most played Modern cards, I’d argue that Jace, the Mind Sculptor is one of the most expensive cards in Modern. This card has been reprinted multiple times already, yet it still sells for over $100. We’ll see if the Mythic Edition printing of Jace has any impact on his price.

Perhaps if it drops enough, we’ll see Scalding Tarn take over the top spot—it is also flirting with $100 and there’s no reprint in sight. Liliana of the Veil has also been creeping higher, and is probably in the top five.

Lastly, Modern reprint sets shine a spotlight on Modern. This alone may catalyze interest in the format, driving up prices. Wizards of the Coast can reprint cards until they’re blue in the face—they will never be able to keep up with the evolving metagame and fluctuations in demand that lead to the expensive decks that make up this format.

By printing Modern Masters sets, they are only increasing supply of a fixed group of cards, while at the same time increasing demand of all Modern cards. The result: a growing market cap for Magic.

Modern Horizons: The Perfect Storm

If we were to write a simple table, we can quickly summarize how Modern reprint sets impact Modern prices. It would look something like this:

Let’s shift gears now and focus on Modern Horizons, a set with some reprints and some new cards with one key characteristic in common—no card is currently Modern-legal today.

What is this going to do to Modern card prices? Well, if we refer back to the table above we see that two of the three items above will hold true. Modern Horizons will likely cause some non-reprinted cards to jump in price. This happens any time there’s pent-up demand for cards as buyers await spoilers before purchasing any at-risk cards. Modern interest will definitely increase—the entire format is going to get turned on its head with so many new, Modern-legal cards being introduced at once.

However, if we go to the “Price Decrease Factors” column I’m not so sure this line item applies. There will be reprinted cards, and those cards will drop in price. But there won’t be any Modern-legal reprints. That means there will be no sudden increase in supply of any Modern card currently in the format.

So you have two catalysts for higher Modern prices and a muted catalyst for lower Modern prices. I suppose some of these new Modern cards will find their way into tier 1 decks in Modern, and those cards may be a little cheaper at first. But in all, I predict Modern prices will rise across the board as a result of Modern Horizons.

The Rising Tide

Currently Scalding Tarns are around $90 a piece. A playset will run you $360. A heavily played Volcanic Island will cost you around $300. It is conceivable that some players may see their Modern collection grow in price and use that leverage to acquire Reserved List staples. They may make their first foray into Legacy or upgrade their Commander decks.

The key here is that Scalding Tarn will one day be reprinted. It’s almost a guarantee. Volcanic Island will never be reprinted—also a guarantee.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

So if you’re in the game for the long haul, which would you rather own? Personally, I’d rather own the sure thing and sit on the Volcanic Island.

Now imagine what may happen when Modern Horizons launches. Scalding Tarns are already quite pricey—I’m not sure what upside remains. But other fetches can certainly climb near that $100 mark. Imagine Verdant Catacombs hits $100 each. A set of those could then be traded for two heavily played Bayous.

As Modern card prices rise, they become valuable trading tools into the upper echelon of this hobby. What speculator wouldn’t be tempted to ship a bunch of Modern cards that were $20 a few years ago into something that will inevitably climb toward $500 over time? It’s a no-brainer.

Such transactions will increase the demand for Dual Lands and other Reserved List staples. This will especially be the case for Commander staples, as that format is as strong as ever.

Next thing you know, a set of Volcanic Islands will be tradable for a heavily played Mox Sapphire. Now you have the next wave of trades being made as value funnels upward. Power will be the last tier to rise, and it will do so without the notice of the average player. But rest assured that the 1% of Magic speculators will see their wallets grow fattest with this rise in tide.

This is what I suspect will happen over the course of 2019 once Modern Horizons is launched.

Wrapping It Up

So what’s the play here? Honestly, you can’t go wrong no matter which avenue you pursue. You could stick to buying Modern staples that will likely remain relevant once the metagame is disrupted—I like fetch lands most for this, but Snapcaster Mage and Cryptic Command are also prime targets.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

Or you could preemptively pick up a couple of Dual Lands, Mox Diamonds, and Gaea's Cradles in anticipation of the rising tide. Then when players are itching to trade up, you can make profit by trading down for a small premium and liquidating the Modern cards you get in return, netting a nice profit.

Or you could go all the way to the top and pick up that Mox Ruby or Library of Alexandria you’ve been wanting (or whatever high-end card you’re after).

It’s only a matter of time before those take another leg higher in price. I predict that six months from now we’ll look back and wish we had picked these up when they were “cheaper.” It’s the same thing we say every time these price increases happen, and 2019 will likely be no different.

All thanks to the printing of Modern Horizons.

…

Sigbits

  • Card Kingdom’s hot list is riddled with Masterpieces and foils, just like it has been for the past couple of months. They’re offering $305 for foil Eternal Masters Force of Will and $245 for Masterpiece Mana Crypt, for example. The premium printings of these in-demand cards remain robust, and will likely climb alongside Reserved List staples as the tide rises.
  • Card Kingdom also has non-foil Eternal Masters Force of Will on their hot list with a $95 buy price. This is an impressive number for a card reprinted not too long ago. What is driving the price of this card, I wonder? Is Legacy demand that robust, or is it mostly Commander and Cube players who want a copy of this card for their decks?
  • There aren’t as many older cards on Card Kingdom’s hot list these days. After last year's hype cycle, prices on these have really settled down (thankfully so). But I see In the Eye of Chaos recently popped onto their hot list with an $85 buy price. Rasputin Dreamweaver is also on there with a $70 buy price.

Planes Talkers: War of the Spark Spoiler Review

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At last, War of the Spark is fully spoiled! From a design perspective, I think War bodes well for Modern's future, and more specifically for the upcoming Modern Horizons. And the set itself has some juicy cards, too. While David's review sought to quell the excitement surrounding some perhaps-not-excellent War cards, this article goes over the expansion's cards I think are most likely to see Modern play, covering both its flexible format additions and promising new planeswalkers.

Bend It Back

Some of War's standout cards employ a tried-and-true way to enter Modern: with flexibility. This is the kind of card that has me most excited about Wizards's current design direction. If Horizons is indeed full of cards designed in this way, but deemed a little too strong for Standard, the set is bound to have some serious ramifications.

There are plenty of cards that go the other way, of course—Price of Betrayal, The Elderspell, and Dovin's Veto are all undercosted for their potential ceiling, but extremely narrow. In this section, we'll look at the cards with wider applications that are still aggressively-costed enough for Modern.

Liliana's Triumph

Liliana's Triumph was one of the first cards spoiled from War, and got the ball rolling with a bullet; I'd heard players perk up at the idea of a Diabolic Edict reprint in Horizons, and here was a strictly better version: non-targeting and with some upside! While Triumph will be cast as plan-old Edict most of the time, its synergy with Liliana planeswalkers gives an additional buff to 8Rack and BGx. Being able to throw out Triumph during the opponent's draw step can essentially deny them a turn, much like Kolaghan's Command sometimes does.

BG Rock is the most obvious home for Triumph, as it's the only one of the two aforementioned decks that actually puts up results. But that deck is already packed with role-players and often splits its removal slots meticulously. I doubt Triumph stabilizes as more than a one- or two-of there, but expect to occasionally run into it.

Angarth's Rampage

Angarth's Rampage, too, fits into Rock-style decks, if forcing a red splash—Jund and Mardu can run it, anyway. And so can the Rakdos Stompy deck I covered a couple weeks ago, which can't hate having more removal options that get around its own Chalice of the Voids. That's a deck that I can see actually fitting Rampage despite the card's relevant lameness, as it badly craves ways to answer planeswalkers that resolve over lock pieces (and requires some amount of creature removal anyway).

Lazotep Plating

This card is more my speed, or at least my colors. Lazotep Plating might look a bit one-dimensional on the surface, but I think it does a surprising amount for its cost. In protect-the-queen-style decks like Delver, Plating helps beat attrition opponents by stopping removal spells (even the now-powercrept Abrupt Decay) while insulating against Liliana of the Veil. But while Blossoming Defense, with its power/toughness boost, has seen some play in Infect, Mizzium Skin and its kin haven't been so fortunate. So what sets Plating aside from the other protection spells?

For starters, Plating doesn't just protect threats. It gives "permanents you control" hexproof, letting it protect lands from Ghost Quarter, artifacts from Abrade, or planeswalkers from Maelstrom Pulse. And it stops multi-targeting spells like Electrolyze or Kolaghan's Command.

The card also has a second mode: it gives its caster hexproof. In other words, even with no creatures in play, the instant counters burn to the face, Liliana of the Veil's downticks, and the edict effects outlined above, all while making a body. I think this card has just enough going on to occasionally show up in sideboards across a range of archetypes.

Narset's Reversal

Narset's Reversal reminds me of Remand. Its UU cost is more prohibitive, but it offers players a higher ceiling, if a less stable effect. Instead of drawing a card, pilots get to copy an opponent's spell after returning it to the hand, which can range from useless to excellent. A major drawback of Reversal compared with Remand: Reversal can only hit instants and sorceries, while Remand can bounce creatures, planeswalkers, you name it. That makes the new instant's uses more limited than the former's by default, but it still has its big moments.

In a creature mirror, bouncing a removal spell and pointing the copy at an opponent's threat provides a huge tempo swing. Multi-mode spells also offer a lot of versatility. The best spells to target, though, are ones with additional costs. For cards like Collective Brutality, the escalate has already been paid, so opponents will have to discard again to get the same effect next time. But we still benefit from the improved copy. Or imagine casting Reversal on an opponent's Lightning Axe—not only does our creature live to swing another day, but opponents hemorrhage resources and even lose that Thing in the Ice in the process!

Remand was also used in its heyday to counter a pilot's own spells, generally in response to countermagic. Reversal can be used for the same purpose. Here, instead of drawing a mystery card, pilots get their spell back for another go-round—probably an upgrade if they want to copy it in the first place.

One more aspect to consider is that Reversal doesn't "counter" spells, it just bounces them. That gives it the same odd utility as Venser, Shaper Savant and Unsubstantiate in that it temporarily deals with uncounterable spells such as Supreme Verdict or Dovin's Veto.

With all that being said, though, I think Reversal's high-ceiling cases will prove rare enough to mostly keep this card out of Modern. It could still show up as a one-of in control and tempo decks, as weird role-players tend to occupy those slots.

Return to Nature

I've long praised Destructive Revelry in Modern, and have included it in many of my Delver decks. Even in Ancient Grudge colors, that 2 damage adds up when you're swinging, and can be worth giving up the flashback. There's also the added utility of hitting enchantments to consider.

Return to Nature gives up that 2 damage, but adds even more utility: it hits cards in the graveyard. I can think of plenty of instances in this iteration of Modern where I'd rather have the functionality of Coffin Purge than 2 damage on my Naturalize. Against Arclight Phoenix, for instance. Or Dredge! Not that Return is a great sideboard option against Phoenix decks (although it does hit Pyromancer's Ascension), or that there aren't better cards to run for Dredge. But Return does provide a little extra incidental hate for graveyard decks if it's in the sideboard.

Return also seems good at nabbing random Snapcaster targets. The card might come in for those matchups to hit pesky enchantments (Runed Halo) or artifacts (Batterskull), but boasts additional roles when those cards aren't around.

Blast Zone

Engineered Explosives on a colorless land? Now that's flexibility! I've heard two statements over and over when it comes to evaluating this card:

  • Blast Zone is powerful enough that many decks will tweak their manabase to accommodate it.
  • Colorless Eldrazi Stompy wants four copies.

I disagree with both, and on the same basis: Modern is too fast for this card to fulfill its intended purpose with any kind of frequency. The color-light decks that could fit Blast Zone will probably have something better to play a lot of the time, like Field of Ruin or manlands; I do see Zone making a splash in colorless big mana decks, though, such as Tron.

As for Colorless Eldrazi, the card is certainly a shoe-in there; here's yet another mainboard answer to those pesky Ensnaring Bridges, not to mention an anti-aggro tool. Heck, it even removes Stony Silence, a card that otherwise neuters our grinding plan against white decks! But four copies is far too many. We'll draw multiples in excess when having a split of utility lands would have helped win us the game. I'm starting with two copies, and have made room for a 24th land to accommodate both Karn and Zone. Since last week's article, I've cut a Gemstone and an Endless One for the Zones, and swapped the sideboard Torpor Orb for that second Gut Shot (unrelated, but maybe useful).

Parsing the Planeswalkers

War of the Spark is chock-full of planeswalkers, and I think some of them will find their way into Modern. David has expressed disappointment at the design of these walkers, essentially boiling them down to "attackable enchantments." But not all decks attack or house reach, so in many cases, players will be getting a walker (or, enchantment-plus-ability) on the cheap.

My strategic beef with the walkers is a different one: they seem to lack cohesion. Not cohesion from a flavor standpoint necessarily, but in terms of abilities, the walkers tend to have effects that don't interact with one another. I think that can keep them from seeing widespread play, as nobody wants to overpay for just half of a card when the other half is functionally dead. Take Saheeli, Sublime Artificer. This card seems fit for decks that chain together noncreature spells, but it's a full mana more expensive than Young Pyromancer, and for what? It's harder to remove? The second ability is just not so relevant in those decks, making this actually just an attackable enchantment with some extra text.

The upside to this predicament is that when both halves are good, the walker in question ends up being great. In this section, we'll look at the walkers that might pull off that balance by breaking down their static abilities, their plusses/minuses, and their possible homes.

Narset, Parter of Veils

Static: Hoses cantripping decks like Izzet Phoenix, Hollow One, and maybe even Tron.

Minus: Finds answers to stuff, or perhaps a combo.

Homes: Turning off Faithless Looting is big game in Modern right now, but at three mana, this effect leaves much to be desired. As a sideboard card against draw-heavy decks, Narset might be a little slow at that price point. I think it has a better shot in the mainboard of an answer-based deck that likes to tap out, like UW Midrange.

Ashiok, Dream Render

Static: Hoses searching, most notably fetchlands. Doesn't prevent opponents from searching for our own Field of Ruins, though.

Minus: Mills either player and nukes the opponent's graveyard.

Homes: Ashiok disrupts on two levels by stopping searches and graveyard interactions. That makes it better against more decks, but not especially good against one deck, as most graveyard decks are light on searching and vice versa; here we again have the problem of these walkers being pulled in many directions at once. The "mill 4" is only really a gameplan in, well, Mill. Still, I can see self-mill proving useful to power up creatures like Pteramander or assemble a value/combo engine.

Domri, Anarch of Bolas

Static: An anthem. Useful for winning Goyf wars or just getting opponents dead. Always live in aggro decks.

Plus: As a rare walker, Domri has a plus ability, too. This one generates mana, which is pretty much always useful, and comes with a can't-be-countered clause—niche, but nice.

Minus: In a deck with large creatures, can act as heavy-duty removal for larger threats.

Homes: I'm eager to try Domri in GRx Moon, a deck I've now been shopping for almost four years. My latest build featured Sarkhan, Fireblood as another way to ditch extra pieces and lands, a strategy Domri supports by producing mana. When using Domri's minus, Tarmogoyf wins every Tarmo-fight thanks to the anthem.

Teferi, Time Raveler

Static: Limits when opponents can cast spells. Only relevant against decks with instants (half of them?).

Plus: Will need to be played in a deck that can benefit from this effect to be worthwhile at all.

Minus: A very useful bounce ability for decks that can struggle with certain permanents, including hosers and creatures. The cantrip at the very least lets Teferi replace itself and start gradually ticking up to another bounce at no cost in cards.

Homes: I agree with David that Teferi is quite narrow, and probably at strategic odds with UW Control. But I think the walker could have a home in some sort of UWx aggro-control shell where its plus enables instant-speed Serum Visions. These decks like to hold up their mana anyway, and Teferi makes their choices easier. The bounce also gives them random game against stuff that could otherwise lock them out.

Karn, the Great Creator

Static: Stony Silence is already a great reason to be splashing white in Modern, so it's no secret how great this static is against the right deck. It is, however, useless against a large portion of the field.

Plus: Can mostly just be used in specific decks that have artifacts they'd like to swing with. Also turns enemy artifact lands and 0-drops into 0/0s, which kills them, but I don't think this effect is very relevant, as tho decks are already hosed significantly by the static effect.

Minus: The real draw to Karn, this ability lets players dig out any artifact from their sideboard.

Homes: Despite being a colorless Stony, most decks won't want Karn; it's just too much mana to pay for the effect. Those that do are the ones that already have sideboards full of juicy targets. The walker seems like a great fit in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, as elaborated on here, as well as for Gx Tron. The latter would already work up to 10 mana for Ulamog, and Karn asks the same amount before assembling the Mycosynth Lattice combo that prevents opponents from tapping their lands for mana—the cost can even be split. Ulamog is still better under pressure, as it creates a big blocker and removes two permanents right away. But on an empty board, Karn will seal the deal, as well as offering utility throughout the game with its minus.

Winning the War

There are no losers during spoiler season. Which cards do you think show the most promise? Let me know in the comments!

Tales from the Buylist #10 – Reviewing My Hits and Misses

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Achievement unlocked! I've been writing for Quiet Speculation for ten weeks now. It's been an immense pleasure interacting with many of you in the community and having in-depth discussions about a wide variety of topics.

I started writing for QS with the intention of creating market-watch articles and discussing how to make picks based on current trends. With ten weeks under my belt, I think now is an appropriate time to start reviewing my picks and taking inventory.

Hit or Miss?

My first pick was Stoneforge Mystic, and I think I called this one fairly well. This card was periodically spiking and dropping due to recurrent B&R announcements, but I noticed a net gain almost every time this happened.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

As you can see, it's still following this pattern. I'm currently sitting on a few of these myself and pretty happy with the growth. All I can do is hope they dodge a reprint at rare in Modern Horizons. The potential for cards that were never legal in Modern to appear in Modern Horizons is there, but its current playability in Legacy gives a bit of bad-luck protection either way.

Final Verdict: Hit

There was an error retrieving a chart for Panharmonicon

From my second article, I outlined the cards in Kaladesh that I thought were going to be significant players in the long term, so anything I mentioned there will still need some time to pop.

I still believe Panharmonicon was the most important card of the set for its Commander playability. Foil copies are the play here, and I believe they'll be a smart pickup under the $20 mark. Non-foils have the same potential for growth, but I fear that there's a good chance we could see a reprint in a supplementary set as early as this year.

Final Verdict: TBD

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deploy the Gatewatch

When the first bit of information was released on War of the Spark, I knew that cards like Deploy the Gatewatch would be significant spec opportunities in the very near future. I was fortunate enough to pick up a small stash of these under the dollar mark, but the ship on that has mostly sailed.

Many buylists have adopted the new adjusted price of around $5, and are willing to buy them up on a tight margin, as a few folks in our Insider Discord pointed out to me this week. If you got in at the ground floor and have some stocked up, I think now is a perfectly acceptable time to get out of these to free up money for other opportunities. The same goes for Oath of Nissa, Call the Gatewatch, and any other cards in this class.

Final Verdict: Hit

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

As Arclight Phoenix rose to power in Modern, I was beginning to feel like I was talking about it every week. It just kept growing and growing, and I was almost sure that they were a safe hold until the last few months of their legality in Standard. I had picked up several playsets of these at the beginning of Guilds of Ravnica Standard, when the card was well under $10. When the deck first saw some success, the price went up a bit, and I was happy to out all the copies I had for a few bucks' profit.

I never expected that the card would completely take over Modern. Less than a month later the price skyrocketed to around $30 a copy, sold out at most major retailers. It even continued to grow from there, as it took down Top 8 after Top 8 at the premier level. As a chase mythic that was undoubtedly helping to sell Guilds of Ravnica booster packs, I never would have guessed that it would be reprinted so soon.

As we now know, the Challenger Decks this year included a single copy in the Izzet deck Arcane Tempo. The announcement of the finalized decklists has already sent the price on a downward trend, which will only keep going as players are able to flip these decks for value on buylists.

I definitely was wrong about this one nearly every step of the way, and the card's presence in such a product shattered my previously held expectations. You win some, you lose some. The lesson I learned here is that I should hold a few copies when selling into a spike, just in case. I don't regret selling into the first spike, but I wholly regret not having any copies to sell into the next one.

Final Verdict: Small Hit, Big Miss

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

One of my more recent picks I've been interested in is Primeval Titan. It's got a lot going for it in the way of viability in Modern, where it sees play in RG Valakut and Amulet Titan. Some successful finishes have driven a small increase in price over the past week.

There are four relevant printings of this card—Magic 2011, Magic 2012, Modern Masters 2015, and Iconic Masters—but all of them have been at mythic rare. Though the expected buy-in is already around $10 a copy, I imagine it won't take much for this card to double in price, making it an okay price point for entry. As Prime Time decks become more equipped to fight Arclight Phoenix and Death's Shadow strategies, it will only lead to upward price movement.

As a side note, I attached Scapeshift to this same trajectory, and I feel that their prices will be fairly lock-step in the future. I would lean towards holding onto these in the future.

Final Verdict: Small Hit with Potential

Oddball Picks

To close us out here, I'd like to outline my oddball picks that saw a little bit of movement. I wouldn't call these wins, but I wouldn't count them as losses either. My number one rule with cards like these is to out them as soon as a decent profit is available, although I'll be holding a copy or two just in case. I always try to keep this in mind—you didn't make money if you didn't sell the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knowledge Pool

Knowledge Pool was a call I made in response to Teferi, Time Raveler being spoiled, and I wasn't alone in speculating on this card. There was quite a run on these at the sub-$1 price, and I was happy to get all the copies I currently have. I truly wish I had gone in on foils instead, but I'll probably make out okay here.

I'm willing to bet that people will start exploring the Teferi Knowledge Pool deck again in Modern, regardless of whether or not it's a successful strategy. This will drive many buylists to adjust to the new price, providing an outlet for copies you may be holding.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Decimator Web

When Atraxa, Praetors' Voice was bought out on PAX weekend, I immediately started combing Gatherer for cards that may still be flying under the radar. Many pointed to Inexorable Tide, which I was pretty supportive of, but my underdog pick was Decimator Web in foil.

Being able to apply infect counters without doing combat damage, along with the other mean effects this card has upon activation, struck me as casual gold. Admittedly, my experience of having this card played against me in a friend's Atraxa deck led me to pick up some copies, but it appears that others have had a similar experience, as the card is listing a bit higher than the weeks previous.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

Watching the Modern metagame evolve every week influenced this one. I noticed a lot of Humans lists starting to adopt Anafenza, the Foremost in order to stand up to the graveyard menaces in Arclight Phoenix and Dredge strategies.

I recognize that there are a ton of these out there, and it will take a lot more tournament success to cause a buyout. However, I think there's a bit more room for growth here. Many suspect that Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings are on the chopping block for the next B&R announcement. If these were banned, I'm pretty confident that Humans would become the premier aggro strategy once again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

The last pick which I haven't seen too much movement on was Jeskai Ascendancy. I haven't had a good chance to write about it yet, but I believe this strategy could come back into favor in Modern, especially if we get more potent cantrips in Modern Horizons.

Fatestitcher is another key piece of the strategy, and I'll be looking at picking up many more copies of both going into the summer. LSV recently recorded a moderately successful league with the deck, and I'm pretty hyped about the deck, at least from a play perspective.

Bring it on Home

I'm pretty happy with my successes here. With War of the Spark spoilers coming to an end this week, I'll be watching closely for any new items to go in on.

The biggest leg up for me on most of these picks was the Insider Discord, where I was able to discuss some of my picks as I was adding them to my cart, and ultimately get to the checkout screen. As well, if anyone reading this out there would like to brainstorm ideas, you can always reach out to me on social media or leave a comment below!

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

The State of MTGO Speculation

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I. MTGO Content is Back!

It's been a while since I last wrote an MTGO finance article for QS—since just before Christmas actually, when prices on MTGO were in freefall. Like most of you with MTGO collections, I was despondent as the value of my cards fell precipitously, and I was worried about what was transpiring on the platform.

Of course, what made it worse is that much of it was not under my control or something I could easily predict the end of. How would Alli Medwin deal with treasure chests? How many people would continue to play Standard on the platform? Would people stop playing Modern, Legacy, and Pauper altogether in favor of Arena? How many would continue to do Limited on MTGO?

It has been a difficult several months for me. Amidst this uncertainty, I've had to question my own engagement with Magic and MTGO. As longtime QS readers know, I use speculation on MTGO as a primary means to finance playing on MTGO. I love drafting and cubing, and those are costly to do unless you're subsidizing it with sustained returns from speculation and investment.

II. Is there a Path Forward for MTGO Speculation?

This is a question I've been mulling over for several months, and I'm happy to say that I believe the answer is yes.

Matt Lewis is currently writing about a new strategy for investing in mythics and foil mythics, and I will be incorporating that strategy into my portfolio. I'm also happy to say that I think traditional speculation is now viable again, although the timing windows for investment will likely be different than those I established in my Calendar Guide.

What I'd like to do today is go over some new baseline facts for MTGO investing. The first key is understanding what has changed about MTGO in the wake of Arena.

1) Supply is lower than at any time in recent memory.

Fewer people are playing Draft and Sealed on MTGO, at least in comparison to Kaladesh block in 2016-2017, when MTGO introduced leagues. Contrary to some of the apocalyptic and dismissive language we sometimes hear, there are still plenty of Limited players on MTGO.

It's hard to look at numbers of league participants alone to determine just how steep the drop-off is, but overall each Limited league has between 30% and 50% less participants than it did during the heights of Dominaria. The drop-off has been more acute in the competitive leagues than in the friendly and intermediate leagues.

2) Redemption accounts for a greater portion of demand than ever before.

Alongside the drop in influx supply, digital demand for that supply has also plummeted. During October and November, there were roughly 3,000 people in the Standard leagues. In February and March, that number was closer to 900.

Guilds of Ravnica and Ravnica Allegiance supply has been decent at satisfying demand (only decent though, more on that below). But Ixalan, Rivals of Ixalan, Dominaria, and Core 2019 all have way too much supply for their present demand. Those sets were drafted before Arena entered open beta, and so there is a glut of supply. Hence:

Unlike the sets before it, Guilds of Ravnica will not crater as steeply once its redemption period ends in May, simply because there's less supply to go around. The same is doubly true for Ravnica Allegiance, which has even less supply than Guilds of Ravnica (lower rate of drafting, and less time being drafted).

From the speculator's perspective, Guilds of Ravnica should be viewed as a transition set. Personally I'm going to stick more to investing in Ravnica Allegiance and War of the Spark because of uncertainty about Guilds of Ravnica.

What seems true about both GRN and RNA, though, is this: Supply and digital demand are low enough to where redemption is eating up an outsized percentage of demand. In fact, it could be argued that the influx of supply is too low to meet the demand for redemption.

3) A new normal is being reached.

What speculators need is stability, and we're finally getting that. The bloodletting appears to be over.

Standard and Limited participation numbers seem to have stabilized; if anything, they'll likely return to slow growth. Modern continues to grow in popularity on MTGO, up 50% from earlier this year. (Much of this is expected, as interest in Standard wanes. I've personally found it impossible to will myself to play a single Arena ladder game for weeks, and I know I'm not alone.) Pauper and Legacy have seen increases in popularity as well, up 40% and 10% respectively from earlier this year.

A new equilibrium for supply and demand is being reached. This is why card values on MTGO are broadly going up, and why the value of event tickets has stabilized, fluctuating between $0.75 to $0.80. (Note: Do not purchase event tickets from the MTGO Store. Purchase them from reputable card chains for about $0.89 instead for a solid 11% discount).

After talking with one of the bot chains, I believe the selloff is over. Ticket prices are low right now because there's a glut of them in the system. We should expect this price to go back up as more sets get redeemed and players buy tickets from bot chains instead of the MTGO Store. I'm hoping the value of a ticket will be back up to $0.85 by this fall.

But the important point is that participation on the platform appears to be stable—and is therefore once again something predictable we can have confidence in.

Thus I am confident that the savvy speculator will be able to generate good returns on Standard cards based around the same three modes of exploitation as before: redemption, seasonal set cycles and rotations, and metagame changes.

III. Treasure Chests: What is Different and What is the Same?

As I argued in my December article, treasure chests are the primary driver behind collapsing eternal card prices. For this reason Matt and I have strongly cautioned QS readers against investing in Eternal cards for quite a while, and we will continue to do so.

Treasure chests are still being used to pump extra Eternal supply into the system. While speculation on Standard cards is possible and potentially lucrative, speculating on Eternal cards should only be done with an eye toward short-term gains. I don't think there's ever a good reason to speculate on an Eternal card with the intention of holding it for more than two months.

What has changed since December is that the Standard commons and uncommons have been removed from the chests, making one of my favorite investment strategies viable again—investing in cheap uncommons. Ravnica Allegiance is still being drafted, and yet three uncommons still remain above bulk:

IV. Wrapping Up: What to Expect in the Upcoming Days

Please leave any questions for me here or in the QS Discord and I'll get back to you. There's honestly way too much to talk about for one article, so your questions will be essential for fleshing everything out. There are even implications for paper finance as well that I didn't discuss here.

Next week I'll be releasing an article about speculating on Ravnica Allegiance cards. Thanks for reading, and I'll see y'all next time!

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Kyle Rusciano

Kyle started playing Magic with his little brother when they saw some other kids at a baseball camp playing. His grandma bought them some Portal: Second Age decks, and a hobby was born. Kyle played from Weatherlight through Invasion, then took a lengthy break until 2013. Now a PhD student in the humanities, the Greek mythology component of Theros compelled Kyle to return to the game. He enjoys playing Pauper and Limited as well as focusing on MTGO finance and card design. Follow him on Twitter at @KangaMage!

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Posted in Finance, Free, Magic Card Market Theory, Modern, MTGO, Ravnica Allegiance, StandardTagged , , 10 Comments on The State of MTGO Speculation

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Fighting for Space: War of the Spark Edition

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With War of the Spark's spoiler season winding down, testing and brewing is accelerating. As per my usual, I've been working through interesting cards to find out how useful they'll be in Modern. And as is usually the case, the result has been a swath of interesting results, though nothing especially groundbreaking. I expect there to be a number of decent roleplayers to emerge, if no format-warping Arclight Phoenix. Today we'll examine several cards with potential, but that may struggle to find a home in Modern.

Metagame Checkup

As is now becoming tradition, I'm going to check in on the latest metagame data from Sao Paulo. Starting with the Day 2 data is encouraging: Izzet Phoenix only made up 12.8% of the field, just ahead of Grixis Death's Shadow at 10.1%. Again, I don't know the starting population, and without that, can't tell if this is simply reflective of that population or the deck's strength. However, the fact that the numbers are down form previous levels is promising. If Phoenix's Day 2 shares have been a function of population, then this suggests that its popularity is waning and the metagame will successfully self-police. If it's been thanks to strength, then the data suggests that the metagame is adapting. Hopefully this is the start of a trend and not a deviation, but we'll need more data to be sure.

The Top 8 did have two Phoenix decks, but both lost in the quarterfinals. This doesn't really mean anything, since the real story of Phoenix has been its Day 2 numbers, and not events won. Humans is also back with a vengeance. Spirits was a bad matchup and inhabits the same metagame niche, so with that gone and given Reflector Mage's power against Thing in the Ice, it makes sense for the old best aggro deck to be back in force.

Finale of Promise

The first card this week is Finale of Promise. This is the kind of big flashy card that really gets the juices flowing and is what makes spoiler season great. However, let's get one thing clear: Finale is never getting cast for more than six mana. Decks rarely run anything over four mana to begin with, and most Modern decks won't be able to cast it for more than that in the first place. Mono-Red Tron is not a thing, and while combo decks can make that kind of mana, why wouldn't they use it to just win the game rather than getting tons of value replaying their cards?

Realistically, Finale will be cast for three to four, which is fine. There's a lot of powerful one-mana instants and sorceries in Modern. I expect the target will be four most of the time, since that breaks even on mana, but even casting two one-mana spells for three isn't bad. The problem is that there really isn't a deck that wants that effect that doesn't already have it in some form, and Finale is arguably worse than them.

The Burn Problem

The main home I've seen discussed is, naturally, Burn. However, I'm extremely skeptical Finale will work there. Much like Light Up the Stage, Finale proposes to solve a card advantage and reach problem that Burn doesn't have; just like Light, I can't see it working out. Why exactly should Burn run a card that is dead against graveyard hate just to play more burn from the graveyard? For three mana in the same situation, it could play an uncounterable Exquisite Firecraft. Burn's card advantage is the opponent's life total, and trying to stuff in card draw just doesn't work.

The Snapcaster Problem

If not in Burn, then what about fair decks? In a deck like Grixis Death's Shadow you can hit Thought Scour and Thoughtseize, but again you're getting two mana of cards for three mana in a deck that relies on mana efficiency. It also requires you to have eligible instants and sorceries in the graveyard in a deck that frequently feeds it all to Gurmag Angler. More generally, just playing Snapcaster Mage generates significant card advantage, and you get a creature out to potentially win the game. It seems to me that Finale suffers from the same problem Misson Briefing does: it's worse than Snap.

The Storm Problem

This strongly suggests that if Finale is ever to see play in Modern, it will be as a combo card. While I don't know which combo wants or needs Finale, casting spells from the graveyard is already part of Storm's game. A Finale for four provides four mana of cards (arguably more since Storm almost certainly chooses rituals and/or Manamorphose) and 3 storm count. That's pretty good. But Past in Flames costs the same amount and retrieves everything. Finale may be a nice supplement to that plan, but Past is more efficient.

Dovin's Veto

A card that I was initially very excited about but have since cooled on is Dovin's Veto. At first glance, the card seems amazing. For a slightly trickier mana cost, it's an uncounterable Negate. That's a huge boost for control. No more worries about Dispel or Pact of Negation winning the counter war: when Dovin says no, he means it.

Logically, I assumed that this was the end-all card for control mirrors, and that drawing the most would determine the winner. Then I thought about it some more and realized that I was on the wrong track. It may be a control breaker initially, but that will not last once players adjust. There's no way that control players will long allow the matchup to come down to a single, uncounterable counterspell.

The Counterflux Corollary

Therefore I don't think Veto will end up seeing much play precisely because it's so effective in control mirrors. I realize how weird that sounds, but consider Counterflux. Because it hits any spell and can be overloaded against Storm, Counterflux is arguably better than Veto despite costing more. However, it has never seen much play. Even during the height of the Twin era, Counterflux was never more than a 2-of in the sideboard. This seems counterintuitive considering how potent is was in the counterspell heavy mirror match.

However, it actually makes perfect since in context. Costing three certainly hurt, but Counterflux wasn't heavily played because of how good it actually was. It was the Last Word in a counter war and that was that. Because there was no waiting around to overwhelm the opponent with superior numbers of counters, players didn't bother trying. You should never fight battles you can't win given a choice, and Twin players chose to make Counterflux just a card rather than a mirror-breaker.

The first way was to recognize that "can't be countered" doesn't mean uncounterable. Twin decks played Remand, and a frequent strategy was to bait out the Counterflux and then Remand your own spell. As I remember, the key to the matchup was baiting the opponent, not actually countering anything. The other key was overwhelming them. There's only so much mana each turn, and forcing opponents to use theirs on their turn meant landing something important next turn.

Lesson from History

If Counterflux is any indication, Dovin's Veto will see play, but it won't be the end-all control mirror card that it appears. Instead, it will redefine the matchup. Right now the mirror is about card advantage. You win either with an early Search for Azcanta or by resolving and protecting a planeswalker. Since Veto makes the latter plan far harder, I predict it will be abandoned. Instead, savvy control players will pivot to creatures. Geist of Saint Traft and Vendilion Clique are far better in a Veto-heavy world. Then, Veto will lose value in favor of anti-creature cards, and the cycle will begin anew. Thus, Veto will see minimal actual play despite having a profound impact on Modern.

Angrath's Rampage

Wizards appears to have had edicts on their mind when making War. I don't know why, but the set is dense enough with edicts to make me wonder if there's a hexproof-heavy set coming. Typically, there's only one or two Diabolic Edict effects in Standard at a time, spread over multiple sets. Right now, between spoiled cards and planeswalker abilities, War has three. Of the currently known ones, Liliana's Triumph is clearly the best, and in the running for best edict of all time. Non-targeting, instant-speed discard and creature removal together for two mana suggests somebody at Wizards has a grudge against Bogles, and I'm sure Liliana's Triumph will see considerable play.

Angrath's Rampage is also a very good card despite being overshadowed. Forcing opponents to sacrifice a non-enchantment, non-land permanent of your choice is a very unique ability, and potentially very powerful. But that versatility is a ruse. The reason that edicts don't see much play in Modern is that creature and artifact decks tend to go wide, and there's often something weak or expendable. An aggro opponent will choose their weakest creature, while artifact decks will have Mox Opal or Springleaf Drum to feed the Rampage.

The only way for the edict to be good is when there's only one option, which will usually be the case when choosing planeswalker. Decks tend to only run a few, and frequently the same type, so Rampage will likely hit what pilots want. Except most decks don't run planeswalkers. The only decks I can think of which consistently run planeswalkers are Tron, BGx, and UW. While these are popular decks, I don't think they're popular enough to warrant maindeck Rampage.

Great Niche Appeal

That being said, Rampage could become a remarkably effective sideboard card against UW Control. Rampage hits all the costly win conditions in UW at huge discount, and there's no risk of chaff saving planeswalkers. Snapcaster Mage could save a Lyra Dawnbringer or Celestial Colonnade, but since UW rarely runs more than two Snapcasters, the risk is low. Even then, if UW is throwing a Snapcaster in just to save Lyra, that's at least some value, and it could be overcome with a Lightning Bolt.

The question I can't answer is if that's good enough. Rampage doesn't really change how games against UW play for its caster, but it does impact decision making across the table. UW has a very low quantity of win conditions but a lot of answers. It also has to use those answers to stay alive, and by the time it's deploying win conditions, it will be light on ways to protect them. Losing one or two may not be a big deal, but the risk of four effective edicts is nothing to sneeze at.

Forcing control players to reevaluate their gameplan could be effective and worth the sideboarding. It may also necessitate the control players changing their decks to include more win conditions, which is also a decent outcome for the types of deck that might run Rampage. The BRx midrange decks that could use Rampage tend to be good at attrition, but struggle to come from behind against control. Forcing control to be less pure control could pull the matchup more into midrange's favor.

Saheeli, Sublime Artisan

Last week, I was quite critical of the War planeswalkers because their reliance on the static abilities to be relevant made them bad enchantments. At the time, I had seen plenty with good abilities, but not good enough to warrant their weakness to attacking creatures. Since writing that, Saheeli, Sublime Artisan was spoiled, and I think she has a lot of promise. The primary job of any planeswalker is to generate a steady stream of card advantage, and making an overwhelming amount of tokens certainly counts. Whir Prison already runs Sai, Master Thopterist and sometimes the Thopter Foundry combo for that purpose. Which is a problem for Saheeli.

Obvious Comparison

Foundry combo is its own thing, and in a world full of graveyard hate it's not very good. Sai has his niche, and since it's the same one Saheeli might inhabit, let's directly compare the two:

  • Saheeli requires two hybrid-colored mana; Sai needs one blue mana
  • Saheeli is a planeswalker; Sai is a creature
  • Saheeli's activated ability has limited activations; Sai's is limited by fodder
  • Saheeli can be attacked; Sai can attack and block
  • Saheeli's ability has limited utility; Sai draws cards
  • Servos walk; Thopters fly
  • Saheeli triggers on any noncreature spell; Sai, only on artifacts

On balance, it appears that Saheeli is weaker than Sai. Where she gains in flexibility she loses on power. However, that's not the full story.

Odd Child

Almost all of Sai's positives and Saheeli's negatives only matter against creature decks. Sai's stats are only really relevant because he can block. Combo and control don't have many if any creatures to fly over (and control's fly anyway), so servos are functionally identical to thopters. Given that control has a much harder time removing planeswalkers than creatures, I'd argue that Saheeli is better than Sai in context.

Sai's activated ability is far better than Saheeli's in a vacuum. However, I don't know if it's actually relevant. I've never seen a deck with Sai struggle to keep their hand full when they want or need to. Generally, killing the opponent is better than just drawing cards. Sacrificing Thopters for profit rather than losing them to Terminus is potent, but I'd never expect sweepers post-board against Whir Prison or similar in the first place, so I doubt it will come up. Even then, you'd lose Sai too where Saheeli would live. I also wouldn't be surprised if there's some combo utility for Saheeli's ability. This is a case where Saheeli isn't as good as her competition on paper, but in the right context she may excel.

Modern Carries On

In the end, I expect Modern to absorb War of the Spark without much distrubance. I also expect this was a deliberate decision by Wizards, since Modern Horizons is coming soon. Why shake up everything now when they've built a set to do exactly that in just over a month? War appears to have a lot of decent roleplayers looking for decks, but nothing more substantial. However, I may well have overlooked something.

War of the Spark: Spoilers and More!

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War of the Spark is the 81st Magic expansion, set to be released in paper on May 3, 2019, and available on MTG: Arena on April 25, days before the prerelease. The set touts a planeswalker in every pack and will continue the story arc involving the conflict between the Gatewatch and Nicol Bolas.

Spoilers start officially on March 31st, tied to PAX East and the Mythic Invitational event. We'll be updating this post with more information as we get closer to release, so be sure to check back with us frequently!

April 22nd

Just when I thought we were all done with Spoiler Season, Wizards decides to throw on this amazing adornment to the Japanese release of War of the Spark.

Each of the 36 planeswalkers featured in the set will have an alternate art version drawn by high-profile Japanese artists in addition to the regular versions of the card possible in each pack. Collectors around the world will surely be clamoring for Japanese boxes of the set in hopes of pulling one of these alternate arts to spice up their decks. I won't post all of them here, but the full set of walkers is available in this gallery for your viewing pleasure.

It's difficult to figure a starting price for these as foreign cards have a lot of associated variables, but I can assure you these will be highly sought after cards, and will likely be the most desirable versions of these planeswalkers.  The highlight of the gallery has got to be the Liliana, Dreadhorde General by renowned Yoshitaka Amano, noted for his work on Speed Racer, Vampire Hunter D, and Final Fantasy. Also, is this a MF JoJo reference?

April 18th

Spoiler season is officially over, with every card in the set revealed and the storyline complete. Gideon dies a hero's death, and gets to finally take a well-deserved rest back on Theros. With that cat finally out of the bag, Wizards took an opportunity to show off the latest in the Spellbook series with Signature Spellbook: Gideon.

As was the case with the last Spellbook, Gideon's offering will include some on-flavor art, and a unique border. Standouts to me here are the new arts for Path to Exile and Rest in Peace. Speaking of alternate arts, Wizards made another significant announcement today.

The War of the Spark: Mythic Edition was announced, and will contain eight more planeswalkers getting the full art treatment. 12,000 copies will be available on Hasbro's eBay store on May 1st, 3PM EST. They're charging $249.99 for the box which will contain 24 packs and a purchase limit of two. It may sound a bit steep, but the full cart copies of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon will more than recoup the cost of the box. As we've seen with the last two offerings, these will sell out pretty fast (some Insiders in Discord estimated within minutes) so you'll want to be ready to check out as soon as the product is listed.

Outside of these shiny new baubles, spoiler season wrapped up with a slough of commons and uncommons, but I think these two are pretty interesting.

Despark strikes me as a great piece of sideboard tech, and I think there's a chance it could see some Modern play. Everybody's always looking for the next Tron Killer card, and this cleanly answers most of Tron's threats with the added bonus of exiling the card. Another card that strikes me as particularly powerful is Heartwarming Redemption. Besides showing off the happily ever after for Gideon on Theros, having a Wheel of Fortune effect in the format could prove interesting.

Overall, it was a pretty incredible spoiler season, and I absolutely loved how they executed these previews. Although leaks are an unfortunate side effect, I'm glad that things were trickled out a bit every day, which I think will contribute to the overall success of this set. As for MTG Finance implications going ahead, I think this set has plenty of room to move the needle on plenty more cards, including the ones within the set itself. I'll be watching the first weeks of Standard very closely and eagerly awaiting the MCQ decklists to release.

April 17th

Wednesday rolls around again to give us some new spoilers, drawing us pretty close to the end of the previews.

First we have the rest of the Finale cycle in Finale of Devastation and Finale of Glory. These two are very reminiscent of X spells we've seen before, like Green Sun's Zenith and Decree of Justice,  but with the added benefits when you dump 10 mana into them. Many are speculating that Finale of Devastation will be an incredibly powerful spell in Standard, and will definitely be making waves in Commander.

The selection of planeswalkers from the day was quite interesting. We get to some clearer versions of Ugin, the Ineffable and Gideon Blackblade that were previously leaked, and the new Narset, Parter of Veils at uncommon. This is quite a strong card at uncommon. In certain matchups, having a similar ability to Leovold, Emissary of Trest that prevents your opponents from cantripping can shut them out of the game, and searching the top four cards of your library for a spell is pretty nice to pair with it.

April 16th

This Tuesday's spoilers brought us some spicy new cards, although very few in comparison the comparative truckload we got yesterday.

Two more Finales were shown off today, Finale of Revelation and Finale of Eternity. These seem a little less powerful at the lower part of the range, but the flexibility they provide will probably make them fan favorites in Commander.

Speaking of fan favorites, Casualties of War looks to be exactly the type of card to get excited about. While the rate is a bit higher than something like Maelstrom Pulse or Abrupt Decay, Casualties of War will be able to take care of a lot of problems, albeit it one of each type at a time. Six mana is though, but at minimum you're going to target a creature and also Stone Rain your opponent. Bioessence Hydra strikes me as a very fun card as well. Getting rewarded for playing planeswalkers and using them seems great, and this hydra could get pretty large fairly quickly.

Oath of Kaya rounds out the day, showing us the story point where Kaya joins the Gatewatch. Aside from a nice flavorful enchantment, this represents what I think could be a key piece of removal in Standard. Lightning Helix that also buffers your life total and provides pseudo-protection for your planeswalkers isn't horrible, especially in a Superfriends list.

April 15th

Happy Tax Day to those of you in the states! Today brought us a ton of new cards to take a look at, but I'll try to boil it down to what I think were the most important.

Of course, we have to talk about the planeswalkers of the day first. We get our official spoiling of Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God, and this will probably be the most significant mythic of the set. As well, we have two more uncommon walkers in Ashiok, Dream Render and Huatli, Heart of the Sun. Ashiok kills search spells while Huatli carries the static ability of Doran the Siege Tower, contributing yet another butt-fight card to Standard. Sarkhan the Masterless rounds out the roster and has a offbeat, but awesome ability to turn your planeswalkers into 4/4 flying dragons. We've seen this sort of effect tied to cards like Form of the Dragon and Day of the Dragons before, but this will likely offer a solid win condition in planeswalker themed decks.

 

These spotlight spells are absolute hype condensed into card form. Aside from having some fantastic art which will be highly desirable in foil, we get some very potent abilities to go with it. The Elderspell is probably going to be one of the most impactful planeswalker answers ever printed, though I believe it will be largely relegated to sideboards. Commence the Endgame could be a control finisher in Standard outside of Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. Deliver Unto Evil looks great as a card and will probably be an EDH staple, but seems a bit lackluster outside of that context.

God-Eternal Oketra completes the cycle of gods, and this one may have some early financial impact on other cards. Whenever you cast a creature spell, you'll be making a 4/4 Zombie Warrior with Vigilance. An infinite loop of tokens is possible with Gravecrawler and Phyrexian Altar, both of which I'll be monitoring very closely over the next few days.

April 13th and 14th

There wasn't much in the way of official spoilers this weekend, but a few leaks came out a bit ahead of schedule due to some prerelease kits getting opened early.

While it is unfortunate that these were leaked before they could be officially spoiled in story order, we get a sneak-sneak preview of some strong cards. Ugin the Ineffable confirms the dragon planeswalker's inevitable confrontation with Nicol Bolas. As for the power level of the card, this Ugin will likely be be a relevant player in Modern Tron lists, and possibly Big Eldrazi in Legacy. Reducing the cost of colors cards will likely enable some deadly combos in Commander as well. Blast Zone does a nice impression of Engineered Explosives or Ratchet Bomb, and will probably see some play as a utility land somewhere. It loses points on flexibility for not being able to kill tokens at zero CMC, but will likely be useful in decks that can pay its activation cost. Finally, we see a big green spell in Planar Celebration. Foils of this will be a slam dunk for the Commander crowd.

April 12th, 2019

After the massive bomb drop that was Thursday's spoilers, we take a small breather today.

Niv-Mizzet Reborn was the most significant card of the day, and he even came with a nice mana rock to help cast it in Firemind Vessel. Commander players will be ecstatic to have another five-color option as a general, or another strong piece to existing decks like Ramos, Dragon Engine or Scion of the Ur-Dragon. The unique ability of this dragon will probably have players considering the two-mana charms from Return to Ravnica block for their deck, which may put pressure on foil copies.

Next, we got an interesting cycle of uncommons in the Bond of X cards. None of these strike me as needle-movers, but the flavor of these screams casual gold. I expect foils of these to be highly desirable, with many players looking to complete sets for their collections. Note the awesome symbol combinations of the guilds for each shard (I especially love the one for Bond of Insight).

Last up is one of the most powerful cards in the spoiler cycle yet. Finale of Promise allows you to play spells for free, which I hear Magic players are big fans of. In tandem with cards like Faithless Looting, Entomb, or even Thought Scour, you're going to be able to play several powerful spells for free, including game winning combos. Like Electrodominance before it, this card will likely put pressure on cards like the Pact cycle and the Suspend spells. Ancestral Vision and Living End will be cards to watch in Modern and Legacy leagues.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Living End
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancestral Vision

April 11th, 2019

Yesterday seems like a bit of a dud compared to what we got on this fine Thursday! More of the God cycle was spoiled, spurring on a lot of Commander chatter again. These will be putting pressure on a lot of cards. This spoiler season has really cranked up reactionary buying up to 11, maybe more so than any Standard set has before.

God-Eternal Bontu, God-Eternal Kefnet, and God-Eternal Rhonas return in their zombified forms to make a big splash on the Commander scene. These will definitely move the needle on a lot of different cards, and I imagine that there will be several spikes in the next few days that no one is directly predicting now. Many have pointed at Sensei's Divining Top as one to start moving due to Kefnet's top-of-deck ability.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sensei's Divining Top

We also received a new walker in Tamiyo, Collector of Tales and her signature spell Tamiyo's Epiphany. Even at rare, this Tamiyo stands out as strong, and could be a serious boon to decks that have trouble fighting Thought Erasure and Duress.

Finally, we have some awesome rares to round out the day. Enter the God-Eternals feels like a strong card that offers a ton of value for what you pay into it. Removal, life gain, mill, and a 4/4. Straight up value town! Spark Double is the clone we didn't know we wanted, and will be valuable in Super Friends decks. The stinker of the bunch is Silent Submarine. It's worse than Smuggler's Copter in nearly every single way, but could prove playable in Standard in the Mono Blue Tempo deck.

April 10th, 2019

It's Wednesday my dudes, and that means we've got another round of spoilers to go over!

We've finally got official images of Nissa, Who Shakes the World and Domri, Anarch of Bolas today, and green mages everywhere are very excited. Nissa doubles your green mana production, and will likely see play Standard as a finisher. Nissa's plus ability gets deadly very fast, and can definitely swing a game in your favor. This new Domri will likely be played in Standard Gruul decks, possibly replacing the slots that Domri, Chaos Bringer already may have occupied.

Outside of the confirmed walkers, we still got some solid rares that may be spurring movement very soon. Illharg, the Raze-Boar screams casual fun, and will likely become a fan favorite Commander. Some chatter indicates that its ability, similar to Sneak Attack or Through the Breach will put pressure on other large creatures that could be put into play in combat. One of the more interesting callouts was Medomai, the Ageless. Putting Medomai into play with the boar's effect and picking it up at end of turn will give you infinite turns to win the game. Foils of Medomai are already moving, but I expect this to be a flash in the pan once people realize that you can't play either of these as a general and have the other in your deck.

Awakening of Vitu-Ghazi shows off yet another card that could benefit from proliferate cards, and is fairly solid on its own. I expect this to largely be a draft bomb, but there's a small chance it could break into Standard as a win condition, given how powerful the effect is for the casting cost.

April 9th, 2019

This Tuesday was a huge day for spoilers! Five new planeswalkers join the fray, with the previously leaked Karn, the Great Creator confirmed.

Karn, the Great Creator previously moved the needle on Mycosynth Lattice, pushing the card up to new heights since its Battlebond printing. I expect this card to make a debut in Modern not too long after its release, possibly in Tron decks. Chandra, Fire Artisan is our other rare planeswalker from the day, doing her best impression of Chandra, Torch of Defiance. It very well could see play in Standard red decks as a way to stay relevant in the later parts of the game. As well, she could functionally trade with creatures on the battlefield, should your opponent decide to swing into her. This offers pseudo-protection and at least enables one-for-one trades, if not better.

Dovin, Jaya, and Saheeli make their return with their own uncommon cards. Dovin, Hand of Control will be a great way to tax your opponent and help fend off larger creatures in limited, but I'm not sure if this card has an easy home in constructed anywhere. The latter could be said about Jaya, Venerated Firemage and Saheeli, Sublime Artificer.  Nothing stands out as too incredibly powerful but will be fine limited cards.

April 8th, 2019

Monday spoilers started off slow, and then a sudden explosion of new cards came along! Here are some of the relevant drops.

First off, we have a new planeswalker in Kasmina, Enigmatic Mentor. Kasmina is a new planeswalker for the set, and has an awesome static ability similar to Frost Titan, but for all your creatures and planeswalkers. The tick down ability comes at a pretty decent rate of four mana, attached to a walker than somewhat protects itself. Roalesk, Apex Hybrid was previously leaked last weekend, albeit an incredibly blurry picture. Now we have access to a high-res image that reveals a strong Proliferate creature that will go well with the Simic suite of creatures we've seen already.

We also got some sweet cards representing the Boros Legion! The return of Feather, the Redeemed has got a lot of Angel players excited. It interacts well with pump spells and will probably spur on the development of a Boros aggro list in Standard. Solar Blaze looks to be a powerful, hopefully one-sided board wipe that plays well with the Boros creatures that have a higher toughness than power. Last up for the Boros is Parhelion II, another vehicle to add to the setlist. This will no doubt be a fan favorite that will be an easy pickup for any casual Commander deck featuring angels.

Last up we've got the official spoiling of Ral, Storm Conduit, along with some signature spells Ral's Outburst and Bolt Bend. Just like the murmurs in our Discord suggested, Ral's static ability can produce an infinite combo with another spell and the Expansion side of Expansion // Explosion. This could create a new Standard deck archetype shooting for the infinite combo, or give a shot in the arm to Jeskai decks that were set aside in favor of the Esper suite of cards. I expect some movement on Expansion // Explosion in response to this.

April 5th, 2019

Friday wrapped up with a fantastic round of new spoilers. Proliferate becomes more fleshed out, with some nice commons and uncommons in green. Look for these cards to boost your proliferate strategy in sealed or draft.

Perhaps the most important of these is Evolution Sage. With it on the table, you'll get to proliferate each time a land enters play under your control. This effect is incredibly powerful, and could work well in Standard with cards like Scapeshift, World Shaper, and Growth Spiral. In eternal formats, a strategy that wants to abuse the proliferate mechanics will benefit from having fetchlands like Misty Rainforest present. We also saw two sweet Simic cards with proliferate on them.

Merfolk Skydiver will be a solid draft uncommon and a good reason to go Simic. Neoform fits into this category as well, with potential to fuel a toolbox deck in Standard. These both could play nicely in a Prime Speaker Vannifar deck of some sort.

Other notable rares from the day include Tomik, Distinguished Advokist, Mizzium Tank, and Mobilized District. Mizzium Tank gives us a new vehicle that could very well see play in Mono Red as a way to make use of early drops that may get outclassed in the mid to late game. Mobilized District could be a strong piece in Super Friends if a control shell develops, with it being an extra way to win the game or protect your walkers. Tomik, Distinguished Advokist looks more like a Legacy card that Death and Taxes could sideboard in against various Dark Depths strategies. I expect foils of this to be hunted down very quickly.

April 4th, 2019

It's been the lightest day in this spoiler season so far, but there is one card I want to talk about that's got everyone on the QS Insider Discord buzzing!

Tolsimir, Friend to Wolves gives an update to our old friends Tolsimir Wolfblood and his loyal companion Voja. This will have obvious casual appeal, and will entice many Commander players to start picking up various green and white wolves for this upcoming general. Notable mentions include Garruk Relentless, Mayor of Avabruck, and Master of the Hunt. Some stated that the fact that this creature isn't red will potentially damage its viability as a Wolf-based general, barring it from using more relevant wolf cards such as Arlinn Kord and Ulrich of the Krallenhorde.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Master of the Hunt

April 3rd, 2019

Another day of spoilers brought us an update on the Nahiri and Sorin storyline last developed in Shadows Over Innistrad. Both of these planeswalkers are quite good, especially considering their rarity. Sorin, Vengeful Bloodlord's static ability to grant not only your creatures but also planeswalkers lifelink will probably make it a significant piece in Standard moving forward, possibly in an Abzan or Esper Midrange shell that would be interested in reanimating its creatures. Nahiri, Storm of Stone feels a little underwhelming, although probably pretty good for an uncommon. The equipment focused static ability also grants your creatures first strike, and being able to remove creatures in a pinch adds a lot to her utility. Single Combat ties their story together with a flavorful Cataclysm effect.

Next up, here are some fantastic Golgari uncommons in Leyline Prowler and Deathsprout. I can't help but shake the feeling that these could have been rares if their costs were both reduced by one-mana, but appear to be awesome value for the rate. Black looks like it is shaping up to be the most powerful color in limited play, judging from what we know so far.

An excited shriek from every Goblin fan around the globe was heard with the unveiling of this new Krenko, Boss of Tin Street! Whenever he attacks, you put a +1/+1 counter on Krenko, Boss of Tin Street, then create X 1/1 red goblin creature tokens, where X is equal to Krenko, Boss of Tin Street's power. Not exactly the standalone powerhouse we've seen before in Legion Warboss or Goblin Rabblemaster before it, but overall pretty good in a Goblin shell accompanied by the likes of Goblin Trashmaster and Goblin Chainwhirler.

 

April 2nd, 2019

Today's spoilers were far less intense compared to yesterday and last weekend, but we still got some exciting cards. The Dreadhorde get more fleshed out, this time with an aggressive red focus.

It was a big day for red cards. The new take on Neheb offers an interesting ability on hit, along with the other two cards here. Dreadhorde Butcher will likely be a solid Rakdos card to build around, pairing well with what we saw yesterday. The most exciting of these three for me is Dreadhorde Arcanist. Many have dubbed this new take on a flashback creature as Slapcaster Mage, as it allows you to cast a spell from your graveyard on hit less than or equal to its power. Recasting a Shock from the grave may be the difference between winning and losing, although I'm not sure if this card will make the cut in red decks just yet.

 

The return of Fblthp has come, and people are getting incredibly excited. I'm not exactly sure if there will be a deck that can abuse the ETB draw effect in a big way, but I expect foils of this little homunculus to be absurdly expensive due to casual appeal. Using Chord of Calling or Birthing Pod to play this card from the library will net you two cards for value, but maybe there's some hope for Prime Speaker Vannifar decks in Standard. UPDATE: Fblthp's interaction with Proteus Staff has prompted a buyout of the artifact. Activating the staff with Fblthp, the Lost as the only creature in your deck allows for powerful card draw and being able to stack your deck how you choose.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Proteus Staff

 

April 1st, 2019

Despite it being April Fool's Day, and having to take EVERYTHING with a grain of salt, we still managed to verify quite a few cards as real and what a day for spoilers it was! We got a huge slough of planeswalkers across the two rarities, and with some exciting effects to boot. It's a lot to unpack, with each walker having powerful and flavorful ability (click for translated text).

Standouts here are the new planeswalker The Wanderer, Davriel, Rogue Shadowmage, and Teyo, the Shieldmage making their debut. They will without a doubt be significant to the storyline of War of the Spark and likely will be players moving forward past this set. Starting them out as uncommons builds hype to possibly see them later on. The two rares we received in this packet were Teferi, Time Raveler and Vivien, Champion of the Wilds.

These seem a tad unexciting to me, as they will likely both be overshadowed by their five-mana counterparts in Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Vivien Reid in regards to Standard. However, I am quite interested to see what the future holds for this new three-drop Teferi. He doesn't impact the board in a big way immediately outside of bouncing a permanent, but his static ability that forces your opponent to play Hearthstone isn't entirely negligible. The plus ability isn't awful either. Imagine being able to cast Thoughtseize at the end of your opponent's draw step. Yikes!

   

Each walkers also brings a namesake card or two with them. Most of them seem like Standard draft fare, but I'd like to highlight these in particular. Vivien's Arkbow seems like a deadly threat that will allow green creature decks to claw their way back into the game after facing a board wipe. Angrath's Anger (unofficial translation) gives the sorcery-speed option of forcing an opponent to sacrifice an artifact, creature, or planeswalker. This likely will see some sort of play for its flexibility, and will probably give Grixis cheaper recourse against resolved walkers than Vraska's Contempt.

Last up for the day's highlights, we got the rest of our promised FNM promos in Augur of Bolas and Dovin's Veto, as well as the new Open House promo Liliana's Triumph. Augur will still put three cards on the bottom of your library if you're lucky like I am. Dovin's Veto strikes me as a very interesting card as a frequent UW Control player in several formats, and will likely impact all formats it's legal in. The same goes for Liliana's Triumph, which is just a strictly better version of Diabolic Edict that has an amazing upside if you also have a Liliana on the table.

I'll leave you all with this image that was seen floating around, which may or may not contain real cards in it. I'll be giving updates on this as more information comes out. Some of these were already confirmed, so I'll be adding my thoughts on these as clearer images become available.

March 31st, 2019

As promised, a large glut of spoilers were dropped on us today during the final day of the Mythic Invitational, with more to follow. Many player's suspicions about planeswalkers at lower rarity than Mythic were confirmed, with us seeing them as low as uncommon. We see that the walkers at less than rare will only have tick-down abilities. Tezzeret, Master of the Bridge shows up as the pre-spoiled Buy-A-Box promo mentioned in the leaked promotional materials invoice we saw a few days ago.

 

Nothing here stands out as far too busted, although we have to note the new planeswalker formatting that includes static abilities. We've seen these on several cards before, but attaching them to walkers that also have an activated ability will surely prove powerful. As funny as it is to say, I believe Tibalt, Rakish Instigator will be a significant player in the upcoming Standard format, given how powerful Mono Red is at the moment. Liliana and Tezzeret are the first mythic walkers spoiled, and I think they'll be decent cards as well. We also saw two of the set mechanics: the returning Proliferate first seen in Scars of Mirrodin, and the new Amass. Zombie relevant cards like Death Baron will likely be pickup targets moving forward.

Flux Channeler stands out to me as one of the more powerful cards, even at uncommon, and has me excited for what's to come. The obvious standout to me given the information we have so far is that some sort of Grixis deck is possible here. There likely will be movement on artifacts like Throne of Geth, Arcbound Ravager, and more.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atraxa, Praetors' Voice

These mechanics will play hand-in-hand and the effect of this spoiling has already put pressure on a few cards in the market, most notably Atraxa, Praetors' Voice. We're already seeing a ton of movement on TCG Player, and a lot of hype around the card. Discussion in our QS Discord is going wild with all the possibilities with the cards we've just seen, and there's no better time to join than now! Another notable card we're likely to see movement on given these mechanics is of course Doubling Season. This card is a fan favorite as is, but there I expect a sharp increase in price by the end of the spoiler season due to this EDH demand.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doubling Season

Moving on to other the other cards we received today, we got a slough of exciting and flavorful spells.

 

The invasion of Ravnica is in full effect here. No Escape and Ignite the Beacon are just a small preview of things to come regarding planeswalker interaction. Time Wipe will likely see some Standard play in decks like Azorius Aggro/Midrange. There are also major EDH implications for these cards as well. Bolas's Citadel was half spoiled a few days ago in name only, but seeing it in its final form reveals an insanely powerful artifact. Casting spells for free is never bad. Ravnica at War is also another interesting EDH card, especially considering the counterplay to Atraxa that it could provide. Interplanar Beacon will likely be a card to watch, especially foils. It will be about as necessary to run as Command Tower is in a walker themed EDH deck.

March 28th, 2019

The Mythic Invitational is in full swing, and we've got a new spoiler to report! Ajani's Pridemate will be the first card we've seen in a finished state, revealing the set symbol and an update on the rules text.

March 27th, 2019

While spoilers were set to officially start on March 29, an invoice being shared around Reddit and Twitter reveals a confirmed reprint of Augur of Bolas as an FNM promo.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Augur of Bolas

Nothing too exciting, but Pauper players will surely be happy to have them, almost certainly with new art! Assuming this is a screenshot of a real invoice, we also get some new card names: Bola's Citadel (sic); Tezzeret, Master (likely not the full name), which appears to be the Buy-A-Box foil; Paradise Druid; and Dovin's Veto. It's hard to make any calls on what these cards will do, but a lot can be inferred from the names alone. In response to this, we'll likely see a bit more information come out over the weekend regarding these promos and how they actually read.

Heading into the weekend, an announcement by Wizards also indicates that all spoilers released during PAX East will be tied to the story of War of the Spark, in a storyboard format. We'll be sharing these as they come out over the course of the weekend.

If you have any thoughts on these pre-spoilers or would like to keep updated, you can follow me on Twitter @chroberry where I'll be sharing updates from the weekend every day, and more spoilers going forward.

Peace!

Speculating While the Iron’s Hot

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Last week the S&P 500 cracked 2,900—it is now less than 2% away from its all-time highs. Something happens to me emotionally when I see the stock market rally so much, and I suspect other investors experience the same reaction. Portfolios grow rapidly, net worths hit new highs, and most notably, speculation runs rampant.

I can state with confidence—although anecdotally—that my speculative stock trading peaks while the market rallies. Over the past couple weeks I’ve been making some low-dollar options trades, and I’ve purchased stocks that deviate from my traditional, Warren Buffet-esque style of trading.

This culminated with my first investment in a pot-related stock, despite not yet being profitable: KushCo Holdings. (Remember, don’t follow my stock purchases without consulting with a professional, I do still own stock in this company, usual disclaimers etc.)

It turns out Magic card values are climbing as well. I’m seeing gains across Commander, Modern, and Legacy, and it’s creating a similar effect. My desire to speculate on cards I wouldn’t normally show interest in has ballooned over the past couple weeks.

With that in mind, this week I am going off-script to share a couple cards that have my attention—I’ll try to disclose my near-term intention and whether or not I have any position in those cards for full transparency.

Inspiration from QS Insider Discord

I don’t know as much about newer cards as I know about Old School stuff. Therefore, I look to others in the community when I wish to diversify my focus. The Quiet Speculation Insider Discord is one of the best resources for this research.

The most recent acquisition I made thanks to the Insider Discord was Mirrorwing Dragon. This is one of those newer cards that never really amounted to much in Standard, so I had never even heard of the card.

With the spoiling of Feather, the Redeemed, speculation on Mirrorwing Dragon has run rampant. The card spiked from bulk to $4 already and I think a higher price point will be fairly sticky—this is a mythic rare from Eldritch Moon we’re talking about…supply may not be as high as we think. I bought 20 from Star City Games and hope to flip them all at once if a buylist hits $3-$4.

Not long ago, someone in the Discord mentioned Thran Temporal Gateway. Being from Dominaria, I had not even considered this as a target due to its recency. Sure enough, the non-foil copies remain marginally above bulk and have not moved in price. Foils, on the other hand, have started to show life.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thran Temporal Gateway

This card shows up in over 1,000 EDH REC lists and I see that number increasing in the future. This card is modeled off Quicksilver Amulet, which cheats creatures into play for the same amount of generic mana. But the amulet shows up in over 7,000 decks and non-foils are worth over $4 despite being reprinted in Explorers of Ixalan.

Amulet may seem more exciting in Commander, but War of the Spark may change all that. The new set contains a ton of new planeswalkers, all of which are considered “Historic” and can be cheated into play with the Gateway. That’s enough for me—I purchased 8 foil Thran Temporal Gateways and am looking to add to this position.

Speaking of planeswalkers and War of the Spark, I noticed the proliferate mechanic is coming back. This mechanic interacts quite well with planeswalkers, enabling addition of loyalty counters at accelerated speeds. As more planeswalkers are printed, more will be played in Commander decks, which will in turn create more demand for proliferate.

The Insider Discord looked to Inexorable Tide as a solid proliferate target, and I have to agree.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inexorable Tide

This blue enchantment is already in 8,000+ lists on EDH REC and that number is sure to climb with War of the Spark’s release. It also shows up as a “top card” in arguably the most popular general of all time, Atraxa. Despite seeing a reprint in Modern Masters 2015, Inexorable Tide has seen exponential price growth lately and could easily hit all-time highs as proliferate hype continues.

I have no position in this card but will likely search the internet for cheap copies to buy if any are still out there!

Other Sources of Ideas

If I had a nickel for every time an MTG finance personality recommended a card, I probably wouldn’t need to speculate on cards anymore. Suggestions are numerous, and of course I am no exception.

The key is to filter through the noise and find the best ideas within. Everyone has a good idea now and again, and following a recommendation that pays off is a rewarding feeling. Over the last couple weeks, I heard a couple ideas that really caught my attention.

First, the Cartel Aristocrats podcast recently mentioned Contagion Clasp during their “Pick of the Week” segment.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Contagion Clasp

This card follows the proliferate theme I mentioned above. This mechanic is about to grow appreciably in popularity thanks to War of the Spark, and this reprinted uncommon is surprisingly cheap. It already shows up in over 6,000 lists on EDH REC and I see that number growing along with its price. I sorted by foils and see only 17 listings for the original set foil. There are about a dozen of the FNM foils. Either version seems well positioned to spike, and I like LP/NM copies of the set foil most.

I don’t own any copies currently but I’m on the hunt for some cheap foils. Non-foils may also be attractive, though being an uncommon means the price ceiling isn’t exceptionally high. Your best bet would be to buy a stack at $0.50 and out them to a $1 buylist as part of a larger buylist order. Selling these one at a time for $2 would be miserable.

Not coincidentally, Contagion Clasp is played most in the Atraxa Commander deck. In fact, many of the best proliferate cards are played in Atraxa. So maybe I should just browse the most popular Atraxa cards and consider any proliferate cards in it. EDH REC can be a very useful resource for this research.

The first card that catches my eye is Tezzeret's Gambit—original New Phyrexia foils are very sparse on TCGplayer and could be worth buying on the cheap. I own zero copies and will probably not buy any, but it’s a worthy consideration.

Contagion Engine also shows up. Even though it’s $15, it probably has room to run. It has never been reprinted and there are only 40 listings for the card on TCGplayer. I don’t own this one either, and I hope to find some alternate, lower costing targets.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Contagion Engine

There’s also Thrummingbird, but that card has had one too many reprints for my liking. I’d rather speculate in other proliferate targets with greater upside and fewer printings.

Final Thoughts

Besides Proliferate and War of the Spark speculation, I’ve also done a little Modern speculation lately. I particularly like Scrying Sheets. Why? It’s difficult to reprint; it has broken into Modern in the past and could return at any time (perhaps with Modern Horizons?); it’s a Coldsnap rare, meaning the number of copies out there is relatively small; and it shows up in over 2,000 EDH REC decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scrying Sheets

I have about a dozen copies of this card and one foil, with potential of grabbing a few more if I can find any at an attractive price.

Another card I like is Tamiyo, Field Researcher. This is another card mentioned in the QS Insider Discord; I had never even heard of the card before seeing it discussed. As it turns out, it’s one of the more popular planeswalkers in Atraxa and it shows up in 6,600 lists on EDH REC.

There are about 24 listings on TCGplayer for foil copies—that’s where I’d prefer to park my resources. I grabbed two foils from ABUGames with some store credit, and may pick up a couple more if I find them at a decent price. It’s a mythic rare from Eldritch Moon, so it has a pretty high ceiling.

Wrapping It Up

As the Magic market heats up, my tendency to speculate increases proportionally. Fortunately there's no shortage of ideas—the challenge is digging through the noise to find the best targets. This week I shared some of my favorites, with inspiration coming from multiple places. The Quiet Speculation Insider Discord is one of my favorite resources, and the Cartel Aristocrats Podcast can also add value.

I think War of the Spark is about to create a bunch of buyouts, driven by newfound Commander demand. I will be watching trends on EDH REC more closely than normal so I can stay most on top of the movers and shakers in the format. These will become great targets for speculation, and will lead to some decent profits. I’ll turn those profits into Old School cards for my collection, and will make the most of an exciting spring season of speculation!

…

Sigbits

  • I mentioned Mana Crypt in a recent article—since then, the buylist at Card Kingdom’s site has jumped. The buy price on the Book Promo version hit $200 for a day before coming back down to $170. I actually shipped Card Kingdom my EMA copy when their buylist hit $165—it since came down to $150 but it could easily go up again as the card remains hot.
  • Buylist on Stronghold Mox Diamond increased at Card Kingdom recently. It went from $165, down to $140, back to $165, and now up to $170. I’m watching this card closely because I have two copies and see the price climbing even higher throughout 2019. This is one of my favorite pick-ups with ABUGames store credit, by the way.
  • After being absent from Card Kingdom’s hotlist for weeks, I see the return of a Collectors’ Edition Dual Land. They have Bayou on their hotlist with a $155 buy price. These seem to ebb and flow, and I wonder if they’re once again on the upswing.

This Week’s Finance Factors: Modern Metagame, Spoiler Season, London Mulligans

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Modern Metagame 

I've shared my opinion before that the release of Modern Horizons will drive growth in the Modern market. That has me looking to buy in on staples now, before things really take off.

Last weekend Amulet Titan won the SCG Modern Open in Cleveland and put another copy in the Top 4, and it’s making its own impact on the market. Card prices of the deck's staples are starting to increase across the board, and seem to indicate further gains or even outright spikes as interest in the deck continues to grow and Modern expands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gemstone Mine

A staple of Amulet Titan, and also of Dredge, is Gemstone Mine. Being played in two top-tier decks has dramatically increased its price online, which has grown from 13 tickets to over 40 in the past two month. The prices of its two printings did spike around the turn of the year, from around $10 to the $15 where they now sit. From here there is still plenty of room to grow, relative to the awesome prices many top Modern staples command.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Coalition Relic

A new and growing piece of technology for the Amulet Titan deck is Coalition Relic. It broke out as tech a few months ago, and is seeing widespread adoption as a new staple.

Its online growth has been explosive, rising steadily from just a fraction of a ticket at 0.2 in February, to the nearly 4 tix where it now sits. In the same time period the paper price of the original printing has trended from around $6 to $8.50, and the reprint from $5 to $6.50, with most of that growth in the past week. Given Modern trends and Commander appeal, the card is in good position to keep growing for a long time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuva

Vesuva has had an interesting price history. For years it sat around $10 as an obscure card, before coming into its own in the Amulet Titan deck, and eventually trending to over $20 in 2016. With the banning of Summer Bloom, it managed to fall nearly all the way back to its previous price, bottoming at $12 at the end of 2017.

It has been moving back up since, surpassing its previous high sometime around the turn of this year. This week it saw a spike of almost 50%, to over $30. There aren’t many copies available cheaper than that online, so I expect the price will continue to grow as copies dry up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pact of Negation

While only a singleton in the deck, Pact of Negation is nevertheless a core staple as part of the Tolaria West toolbox. Even this card's stock has been rising with the good fortune of Amulet Titan.

The online price has nearly tripled since February, from 1.2 tix to 3.5. The prices of the Masters 25 and Modern Masters versions have grown from $11 to $15 in the past month, nearly reaching that of the Future Sight version.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

The single most important card in the Amulet Titan is actually Primeval Titan itself, and it too is starting to look like a good spec. Countless printings have helped keep it very affordable under $10, but in the past few months it has moved past that number. With so many copies out there it’s not going to see a real spike, but I expect strong and solid growth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mishra's Bauble

Another Modern deck going through a renaissance is Grixis Death's Shadow, which has proven it can stand up to Izzet Phoenix and the rest of the metagame. The most recent innovation for the deck is Mishra's Bauble, which has grown from a fringe card in the deck to seeing widespread adoption.

In the past few months Bauble's price online has grown from under 10 tickets to over 20, while the paper price has moved from a bottom of $6 in January to over $8. This was a $40 card before reprint. As a low-print-run Coldsnap card, that price defied the normal rules, but there’s still potential for the price to rise into the teens or $20 range.

Spoiler Season

This week also brought movement due to War of the Spark spoilers. The biggest factor was Feather, the Redeemed, which has caused a bunch of related spikes off of Commander hype.

I remember Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons and the Gods thing made huge stirs when they were printed, and this seems to be a similar case. Those cards had a ripple effect that caused spikes and increases for weeks as more and more cards were targeted. The lowest-hanging fruit was picked, but there is likely more out there.

This week some new legendary gods were revealed, with more in a cycle likely to come. Clearly designed with potential as Commanders in mind, these cards are already having an impact on the market, and any more spoiled will do the same.

For example, Ilharg, The Raze-Boar is basically Through the Breach on a creature, but it returns to hand instead of dying. That's generating interest in creatures with powerful effects to re-use, like Medomai the Ageless, which lets you take every turn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Medomai the Ageless

Another curiosity is Sundial of the Infinite, which lets you end the turn while the creature's return to hand trigger on the stack, allowing you to permanently keep whatever you put into play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sundial of the Infinite

London Mulligan Arrives to MTGO

In other news this week, the London Mulligan is now live on MTGO. A handful of cards moved on Wednesday when the rule went live. A look at these cards gives some insight into how the rules change could impact the metagame and the paper market.

Tron is considered to be a winner from the change, and we saw Karn Liberated move as a result. Reality Smasher and Chalice of the Void also showed increases, a nod to the Colorless Eldrazi deck with Serum Powder and Gemstone Caverns, both which improve from the rule. Leyline of the Void has also increased, another winner from the change.

I’m confident the new rule will become the gold standard, so I think these and related cards are due for paper increases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline of the Void

The London mulligan rule promotes aggressive mulligans, and an unexpected side-effect is that it benefits the 8-Rack deck. Cards like The Rack and Shrieking Affliction get better when opponents are starting on six or even five cards much more often. The deck has also received a new tool in Davriel, Rogue Shadowmage.

These all add up to explain The Rack’s massive growth online, from 2 tickets in February to 7 a week ago, and now up to 10.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Rack

Multiple printings means The Rack isn’t likely to spike in paper, but all of the other staples are fair game. One possibility is Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, which is at a low due to the recent Ultimate Masters printing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

-Adam

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