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The cool thing about MTG finance these days is that there are so many tools available to the average financier. Three of my favorites are Trader Tools, MTG Stocks, and MTG Goldfish. These tools are invaluable resources for financially-minded mages. While each provides slightly different information, using them in conjunction can help give a complete picture of the details of a spec.
As I wrote about a few weeks ago, Modern season is still a ways off, but strikes me as the place to be for speculators at the moment. I don’t know about you, but I’m currently finding the opportunities in Standard to be unexciting and uninspiring. The most financially-relevant event, the Pro Tour, is behind us. Return to Ravnica block cards are no longer underpriced across the board, so picks need to be a little more precise to make money. Theros cards have largely settled, and as a large set that will be drafted all year long, we can expect a steady decline for most non-mythics in the set.
Today, then, I want to discuss some Modern sideboard tech that I didn’t touch on in my overview of the GP Antwerp top 16 decks. I’ll go through in detail how I used the three above-referenced tools to determine the merits of each of these specs. The sweet thing is that you can use this process, too! With all this information available, you don’t have to just take my, or anyone else’s, word that such-and-such is a good or bad spec. You can use these tools to give yourself a relatively objective place from which to work. And objectivity is cool.
Spellskite
This card has been getting a fair amount of attention in the financial community, so I figured I’d start here. Using MTG Goldfish’s Format Staple tool, we can quickly see why all the attention:
According to MTG Goldfish, Spellskite is the sixth most-played card in the Modern format. Appearing in 37.94% of decks is no small thing, although the card is hurt by only averaging 1.8 copies per deck. Both MTG Goldfish and MTG Stocks offer a nice chart showing the price history, but I prefer the cleaner look of MTG Stocks:
So we can see that the card spiked quite a bit around the release of Gatecrash, and has since come down a bit but is still more than twice what it was before the spike. This makes me a little more hesitant, as the buy-in price is higher and we may have already seen the major spike for this card—any further growth could just be incremental. Still, the card is below its ceiling and sees a lot of play. What about a third reference tool?
Using QS’s own Trader Tools, we’re able to narrow down the true amount of risk buying in to a card entails. Here we can see that Card Kingdom is purchasing a whole lot of copies at $6.50 each. So if we buy in at the TCG Player average of $7.99 (and let’s be honest, you’re probably going to find a better deal than that if you’re buying in), we’re only risking $1.49 per copy. Sure, the buy price could go down before we out our copies, but this gives us a good idea of the overall situation in the marketplace. And the situation? A pretty-low 19% spread. Even if you’re not buying in with actual cash, this is the kind of card I look to acquire in trades, especially if I can trade cards with a higher spread.
Torpor Orb
With Splinter Twin winning the last major Modern event, Torpor Orb is worth a look. The card has utility against other decks, too, including Birthing Pod, one of the more popular Modern decks. MTG Goldfish provides us the info to know that this is the 32nd most-played spell in Modern. The card hasn’t broken the top 50 of all cards in Modern, as MTG Goldfish breaks down the format staples in four categories: overall, creatures, spells, and lands. Breaking in on any of these lists shows potential, however, so seeing it at 32nd shows that the card is relevant. MTG Stocks indicates that the card is currently at its all-time high, having doubled gradually over the last year. Trader Tools shows a 45% spread, with a buy price sitting at $0.57 a copy.
Given all this info, it’s obvious Torpor Orb matters in the format, but it’s also a very narrow card. This could mean that the financial opportunity is low. With Modern season approaching, I’m looking to pick up a personal playset, just in case, and also looking to exchange cheap Standard rares for copies of this card. I don’t think it’s super likely that it explodes, but our MTG finance tools have provided us with at least three insights: 1) the card sees a decent amount of play in Modern decks, 2) the card has grown gradually over an extended period, and 3) dealers are picking up the card for well above bulk prices. There’s potential, but it doesn’t seem like a slam dunk.
Stony Silence
Did you know that Stony Silence is the 13th most-played card in the entire Modern format? It even averages three copies per deck (although almost assuredly all in the sideboard). I must admit, I had no idea this was the case, but learning this info certainly piques my interest.
Of course, seeing this is pretty discouraging. With an all-time high and an all-time low within only 10 cents of each other, this card has been painfully consistent in its time. It also came from Innistrad, a large set that sold extremely well. There are a lot of copies of Stony Silence in existence. And Trader Tools shows us that the card is being bought for around bulk prices, $0.14 cents a copy.
This is an example of how using these three tools in tandem is good value. If we had stopped after looking up the card’s rate of play on MTG Goldfish, we would have thought this was an awesome spec: highly played and at a very low price. But after looking at the info on MTG Stocks and Trader Tools, we come to a new conclusion. This is a card worth pulling from your bulk box, for sure. If you can trade bulk rares for copies, definitely do so. But is it worth buying in at the current price? Probably not. What’s the upside? A dollar? You’d need to buy in at bulk prices to make this spec worth it.
Grafdigger's Cage
Remember when this card first came out? It was hyped like crazy, caused all kinds of controversy, and pre-ordered at $10. Then it did very little in Standard and plummeted. Here’s the current situation:
(This is from the overall most-played list.)
The cool thing about a card that started so high and fell so abruptly is that negative feelings toward the card are going to keep the price depressed—right up to the point when people realize it’s good. We know that this is seeing a reasonable amount of play in Modern, as it’s the 33rd most common card in decks. It’s also at its lowest price point ever, possibly the floor. A 47% spread doesn’t indicate that it’s poised to spike overnight, but it is being purchased for well above bulk prices. Finally, it comes from a small set that was unpopular and only drafted for about five minutes: Dark Ascension. I’d like to own a few copies of this card come Modern season.
DIY
Today, I examined some Modern sideboard tech that is seeing a good amount of play. But just seeing play isn’t enough to make a card financially relevant. Using the tools I’ve discussed in this article, you can personally examine many different elements of cards on which you are considering speculating. You should also apply knowledge like whether the card came from a large set or a small set, how much the set was drafted, and what the card and comparable cards have done historically. There are many elements to speculating on Magic cards, and the best thing you can do to be successful is to use all the tools available to you. Do you consult any other sites or databases when you’re researching specs? Please share in the comments!
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Despite nonstop coverage throughout the weekend, I only managed to spend a short bit of time watching the Legacy Grand Prix. But it only took an hour of watching people play dual lands and cast Ad Nauseam before the nostalgia kicked in.
It’s been 133 days since I sold my Legacy collection at GP Providence, and starting this weekend I officially miss the format. Legacy continues to be both the most exciting and expensive GP format, with decks clocking in well over $2,000 in many cases. And after watching some of the pros rock black-bordered duals and foiled-out decks, it’s obvious this number can easily increase in an order of magnitude if the deck pilot so desires.
But the high cost of entry for this thrilling format is both a blessing and a curse. On the plus side, the rapid increase in Legacy’s popularity has generated a lot of value for players and LGS’s around the world. I myself was absolutely astounded at the cash I was able to generate by selling out of Legacy--a decision I refuse to regret.
But on the negative side, Wizards has gradually reduced their support of this aging format, and now the number of Legacy Grand Prix is being reduced from three (one in Europe, two in the US) to two (one each in Europe and the US). Let’s face it--if you’re not in Paris for Valentine’s day or in New Jersey one year from now, you’re not playing in a Legacy GP next year. And since there are no Legacy Pro Tours or PTQ’s, don’t expect to be doing much premier play outside these two events.
No need to panic however. After all, for the eternal fix we all frequently seek out, there’s always six Modern GP’s and a full Modern PTQ and Pro Tour season next year! That should be awesome, right?
A Loud and Clear Message
Wizards of the Coast has identified their priorities loudly and clearly. Legacy is becoming old news while Modern becomes a center of focus. After all, Modern has loads of income potential since the format involves many newer cards. The ability to reprint everything via a Masters Edition is also a brilliant revenue stream. Quite frankly, a Legacy Masters series would be quite lame without dual lands and many other Reserve List staples.
It’s important to note that Legacy will not cease to exist altogether. As long as Star City Games continues to support Legacy on their circuit, the format will remain healthy and card prices sustainably high. But if Legacy and Modern were two horses in a race, I’d wager my money on the Modern one.
Hence my theme for this article--which format should we invest in?
Modern vs. Legacy
Legacy staples have seen amazing returns in the past few years. We’re talking triple digit percentages in many cases (blacklotusproject.com chart shown to capture historical prices).
This rapid rise in price is not uncommon for Legacy staples. The results were spectacular profits for anyone who entered the format when it began to heat up back in 2009. I was especially fortunate in that the first deck I pursued when I entered Legacy four years ago was AnT. This means I acquired LED’s for $20 and Underground Seas for between $30 and $40. Profits for everybody!!!
Times may be changing. While there are always natural fluctuations for Legacy cards depending on the season, recent trends still seem concerning. Take a look at the mtgstocks.com chart for LED now.
The drop is substantial here. It feels like the card tried to break into a new price tear ($99.99 retail) but failed. The result: a drop down to Spring 2013 prices, with trajectory still in the negative direction.
This is not unique to this niche Legacy card.
In the Force of Will chart above we see the rapid rise and decline of a major Legacy staple. After a summer of blissfully high prices, this card has also dropped back down to April 2013 pricing.
My prediction: Legacy has become fully integrated and saturated. In other words, it feels like everyone wanting to play Legacy is now on board. Newcomers are opting to eschew this expensive format in favor of a less expensive and intimidating one: Modern.
Legacy prices may stagnate as a result. We will continue to see seasonal price fluctuations, and there will be a slow upward trend. But returns on Legacy investments may be much more modest. I don’t expect 100% gains on such cards as Force of Will any longer.
In other words, your money could work harder for you elsewhere.
Modern – The New Legacy?
Not quite. Without the Reserved List, there will always be drawbacks to investing deeply in Modern. Wizards could choose to reprint key staples as they see fit.
Fortunately the reaction time for such an endeavor is quite lengthy. Therefore Modern still offers a multitude of profitable opportunities in the future. With triple the number of Grand Prix and a PTQ schedule, the demand for Modern cards will rapidly rise while the demand for Legacy cards will become cyclical at best, retracting at worst.
This leads me to a fundamental point worth stating explicitly. No matter how grand the returns have been for an investment, it is always wise to consider future upside when allocating funds. Just because you made 200% gains on an investment before does not mean it’s a superior investment today. Opportunity cost is a real thing.
A real life example I’m facing today is an investment I made in Utilities in the form of an Externally Traded Fund (ETF).
During the first half of this year the fund performed exceptionally well, beating the market when the solid 4% dividend is added into the returns. I continued to ride this train into the second half of 2013 only to be somewhat disappointed by the stagnated numbers.
It turns out this investment was superior to the average market in early 2013 but the money was better off in other places during the back half. Just because I am up 19% on this fund this year (15% in gains + 4% dividend) doesn’t mean this was a wise investment. In fact, if I had placed more money into other stocks I already owned I would have been better off by a significant amount.
This same lesson is applicable in Magic. Many players grasp their Legacy staples tightly to their chest insisting on a continuous uptrend. You know what?--they’re right. Legacy staples like dual lands will continuously rise. But they will most assuredly be like the blue curve in the chart above while Modern staples resemble the red curve as long as they’re not reprinted.
In other words, my longing to play Legacy does not outweigh the fact that I’ll make more money from Modern in 2014. I have no regrets in my decision because I believe it will be the most lucrative one. Since my primary goal of this hobby is to make profit for my son’s college education, I feel I am making the optimal choices.
A Small Aside – Contradictions
As I've learned more about investing, I’ve uncovered a contradiction in one of my recent decisions. While I emphasize above the importance of opportunity cost and understanding goals, I also encourage reduction of risk. This seems contradictory because reducing risk often means less potential reward.
My investment in Innistrad booster boxes is a prime example. Downside on this investment is small, and I will eventually profit. But it may take years. As long as sellers continue to list these for less than what I paid, I’ll have to play the waiting game.
Clearly I did not place opportunity cost at the forefront of my mind while deciding on this investment. The funds I have sunk in INN boxes could have been much better spent in the likes of Modern staples or better yet, Wall Street.
But hindsight is 20/20 and the best I can do is learn from the past and move on. Long ahead from today, I believe there is still enough upside on this investment to justify holding. I could sell for a loss and have access to more cash, but I cannot identify an alternative investment opportunity that justifies such a move. I’ll be content to stay put, especially since the fees from selling now would lead me to a 15-20% loss on this investment.
Life’s All About Choices
It is absolutely critical that you decide what you are seeking to gain from MTG finance. If you’re in it for the profits like I am, then you may want to consider trimming down on Legacy during the next seasonal price spike so that you can focus on the growing Modern format.
On the other hand if you still enjoy playing Legacy on a local level I cannot fault you for holding. Just make sure you are conscious about the opportunity cost of such a decision.
The more I think about MTG finance and compare it to real life investing, the more decisions I’ve come to regret from the past. My priorities were not well defined in my mind, and this led to sub-optimal plays. All I can do now is learn from these mistakes and put my best foot forward next time around.
I strongly encourage you all to identify what your goals are with this hobby and then make decisions in accordance with these goals. You may surprise yourself with your decisions moving forward. I know I did.
…
Sigbits
Threads of Disloyalty is on the move. The card has gone up 33% during the past week according to mtgstocks.com and SCG is sold out of NM copies at $7.99 (although they have 32 MP copies in stock). This is one card I will have my eye on and likely acquire this holiday season in anticipation of a spike during Modern season. If a spike doesn’t happen, downside should remain small barring reprint.
Do not react emotionally to the rapid rise in True-Name Nemesis’ price. Supply is slow to ramp up and demand is significant, but once this Legacy GP is over I see demand leveling off while supply continues to increase. I’m not saying this card is destined to become $20, but a $30 to $35 price tag feels appropriate.
Not all Modern cards have been immune to the winter cold. Chord of Calling has pulled back substantially from its highs. Star City Games finally has ample in stock at $34.99 (NM) and $29.99 (MP). This card’s price is going nowhere but flat to down in the next couple months, but if it dodges reprint successfully it will rise once more in the summer.
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This week, an unexpected announcement from WoTC indefinitely shut down all MTGO events larger than eight-person queues. This was a response to the instability in the client which had caused large events such as last weekends MOCS and PTQ to crash.
Brian Kibler played in the Saturday MOCS event and was booted from the event just prior to the event crashing. Afterwards, he came out with an article strongly condemning the state of the client.
The instability in the client has been brewing for the past year as the developers struggled to maintain two clients simultaneously. Indeed, functionality in the Beta client had been put on the back burner as they attempted to make it more stable. The old client was supposed to be the stable one. But it looks like maintaining the old client, while at the same time developing the Beta client, was too big a task for the current development team at WoTC.
It would be easy to connect the dots on Kibler's post and the suspension of large events on MTGO. However, this week's announcement was probably brewing for a while as large events had been crashing for some time.
The suspension of large events will give the developers breathing room to make substantial fixes. No timeline has been given for the reintroduction of large events on MTGO, but an update has been promised by the end of the year.
The Results
With no Daily Events, Premier Events, PTQs or MOCS to play for, the utility of singles has taken a big hit. We've seen the effects firsthand over the past two days. Since Tuesday morning, Standard prices have tumbled. Collected below are aggregate Supernova prices for Standard sets from the past two days.
Set
Tuesday Price
Thursday Price
% Change
RTR
146
127
-13.0%
GTC
95
85
-10.5%
DGM
75
67
-10.7%
M14
131
120
-8.4%
THS
131
113
-13.7%
With any large market disruption, it's a good time to do some analysis to consider how the impacts will ripple through the MTGO economy.
Drafts and Boosters
With eight-person drafts still functional, this will be the primary activity on MTGO while large events are suspended. Demand for boosters should be relatively stable. Importantly though, without grinders selling their pack winnings from Daily Events into the market, one of the sources for cheaper boosters has been removed. All currently drafted formats should see booster prices increase as the overall supply of boosters heads steadily lower.
The other side of the coin is that drafters will see lower prices over time for their singles. With no large constructed events, demand for singles will only come from redeemers. The steady supply from drafts will erode prices on MTGO and eventually in paper too.
Currently the draft format of choice is triple Theros (THS) draft, almost exclusively due to the novelty of the format. Once players get tired of the format, prices of boosters and opened singles will start to become more relevant to players when selecting what sets to draft.
This will eventually place demand on boosters from Return to Ravnica (RTR) block and M14. I'm expecting RTR and Gatecrash (GTC) boosters to approach 4 tix by the New Year, and M14 won't be far behind. Dragon's Maze (DGM) boosters will probably see muted gains, suppressed by the lopsided draft prizes.
The strategy of speculating on boosters has been well established in the QS forums. It's a highly stable speculative strategy with well understood price movements. In this moment of market turmoil, speculators with some of their portfolio in boosters will have better returns and more capital available for scooping up depressed singles. Boosters should be a part of every MTGO portfolio for the stability, steady returns and liquidity that they offer.
Constructed
With the suspension of larger events, demand for constructed singles has disappeared and prices are tanking. At some point though, Daily Events will be back, and when they return the value of constructed staples will jump accordingly due to their utility in various formats. The trick for speculators is trying to figure out when we're near the bottom.
Without any clarity on when Dailies will return, timing the bottom will be tricky, and making a mistake and buying too soon will tie up capital or result in a loss.
At this point, it seems certain that Daily Events won't come back before the New Year. After that, Born of the Gods (BOG) will be released in paper at the end of January, and so getting online release events organized for BOG seems like it will be the early target for WoTC. Whether or not the MTGO developers can meet that challenge remains to be seen.
Right now I feel it is still too early to determine whether there is any value in speculating on singles. I would not take a position in any cards from the Standard sets, except for junk mythic rares (as redeemers will be the one source of demand for singles). As we get more price data over the coming weeks, sets will find new equilibrium prices. Once these become clear, it will be time to start buying.
Consider Modern and Pauper
Another interesting case to consider are Modern singles. Without larger events, demand for these will be weak, suggesting price gains are months away at the earliest. Notably though, cards like the Zendikar fetchlands had already dropped a lot in price during THS release events after coming off of their August highs. Seeing continued large price drops seems unlikely as the players who sell their cards for tix probably haven't had time or the tix to buy back into these.
The 'weak' money in Modern staples has already been flushed out in October, leaving most staples in the hands of dedicated players who will hold onto their play sets or bot owners who have a longer-term perspective. Cautious buying of Modern staples over the coming weeks seems like it will be safer than trying to time the bottom on Standard singles.
Lastly, concurrent with the suspension of large events, Pauper Constructed eight-man queues were added to MTGO. This means that the demand for Pauper staples might actually increase, even with the loss of Pauper Daily Events.
If you are looking for a short-term spec, consider the scarcer cards from the more popular archetypes. Cards like Rolling Thunder, Chittering Rats, and Ninja of the Deep Hours. Check out more ideas for speculating on Pauper singles by looking through QS writer Ryan Overturf's work, which can be found here.
Final Notes
For those who had recently been looking towards ISD Block for speculative purchases, these sets haven't moved much in light of recent events. This makes perfect sense as they had already seen price drops due to rotation, and most of their value is tied to paper prices through redemption.
The short story is stay calm and don't sell any cards from ISD block or M13. At this time, they are not really value-priced either, so don't go out of your way to buy ISD block cards right now. Consider them a solid hold that should move up in price as long as redemption remains open.
Unusual events should force every speculator to reevaluate their current portfolio and plans going forward. Hopefully the ongoing market crash has not made a significant impact on your portfolio and you are looking forward to the upcoming buying opportunities.
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Sadly, I haven’t had the opportunity to play many daily events with RUG Tron at this point in time. There was a Standard 1K in the area last Saturday and for the last couple days Daily events have been at undesirable times if they were even firing at all. From what I could discern, things were rough this weekend after the MOCS crashed.
Actually, as of now it would seem that Daily events have been postponed indefinitely. The announcement suggested different types of events will be instituted in the interim, but until more details are revealed it looks like my foray into Pauper will likewise be postponed.
Instead, this week I’m going to talk about a format that is even less discussed these days than Pauper: Vintage. One of the local game stores in the area will be hosting a Vintage tournament next weekend and from the buzz I’ve heard I fully expect them to hit their max seating of forty entrants, which should make for a pretty good time.
As of now, I’ve played Vintage approximately twice, and the extent of what I remember involved playing either side of dedicated Key-Vault Combo deck against a Workshop variant. So, basically I rolled some dice. Workshop is a pretty neat deck, but it doesn’t do Vintage as a format any sort of justice in terms of complexity.
Fortunately for me, Eternal weekend just happened, which gives me some information to look over. When it comes to Legacy I could tell you about dozens of decks, mainstream or fringe, and how they playout. When it comes to Vintage, what I know usually boils down to things that I’ve heard, and the very occasional gander at a decklist. I’m uncertain how indicative this is of the format at large, but WotC’s coverage tells me that two Gush Delver decks top 8’d the Vintage Championship.
While I’ve played Delver decks in several formats- Standard, Modern, Legacy, Pauper, Limited- the Vintage deck is a totally different monster. It has the same elements as Delver strategies tend to (efficient creatures backed up by disruption), but the spell suite is radically different from what I’m used to. Only having one Brainstorm is going to make gameplay and mulligans alike much different than Legacy Delver, and four copies of Gush is pretty uncharted territory for me. I’ve played a few Gush in Pauper, but I’ve definitely Brainstormed more lands than I’ve bounced.
Setting up Shop
When approaching a new format the first thing that I do is goldfish a ton. I don’t think that many players goldfish nearly as much as I do. The general idea of goldfish is to see how quickly and consistently a deck could theoretically deal 20 points of damage, but I goldfish for the purpose of seeing a lot of opening and hands and getting a feel for how they might play out. For the purposes of Vintage Delver the goldfishing I’ve done has mostly been to investigate what types of advantages could be gained from Gushing at different times and to see how the card-drawing suite that Vintage’s restricted list allows a player to play contrasts with jamming four Brainstorm and four Ponder.
Additionally, when I goldfish a new deck I look for any cards that just don’t seem to be pulling their weight. I make note of these cards, talk to people about their inclusion and later track how well they perform in actual playtesting. In Gush Delver I really don’t see a ton of purpose to playing Mox Ruby. It seems pretty silly to question the inclusion of Power in a Vintage deck, but the deck has already trimmed all of the off-color Moxen, and Ruby is very close to a colorless source in these decks. The best application it seems to have is getting to five mana to hard-cast Gush, which is a B plan if I ever heard of one. I might be crazy, but I think that cutting the Ruby is worth exploring.
While both top 8 lists included Mox Ruby, they had a few discrepancies that offer some food for thought. One list featured Young Pyromancer while the other featured Snapcaster Mage. For my money, I’m a lot more about Snapcastering Ancestral Recall than I am about making 1/1s. I’m intrigued by the inclusion of Mystical Tutor. Mystical Tutor for Ancestral Recall only puts you one card up, but Tutoring for Time Walk and Ancient Grudge can be game breaking. Hawthorne tells me that he’s expecting a good amount of Oath decks at the event, and the Tutor will also be handy in finding the Nature's Claim I plan to maindeck to combat them.
One of the top 8 decks contained the restricted copy of Ponder and there are discrepancies in the counter suites, but it’s tough to say what is “correct” on these fronts without fighting some battles. The above thoughts in mind, I intend to test this list as my starting point:
Gush Delver
spells
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Black Lotus
1 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
4 Gush
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Time Walk
1 Ancient Grudge
3 Preordain
1 Steel Sabotage
2 Spell Pierce
2 Flusterstorm
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mental Misstep
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Nature's Claim
lands
2 Flooded Strand
1 Island
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
3 Tropical Island
4 Volcanic Island
I anticipate most people playing in the tournament to look to the same top 8 for decklists, so playing against the other top 8 decks will be a good starting point for my testing. If time allows, Shop, Oath and the Skullclamp Robots deck also seem relevant to test against.
With such limited time allowed I won’t be able to test as much as I like, but if this tournament is successful then the tournament itself will hopefully provide quality experience for future Vintage battles.
As for what to do with my column until WotC decides what to do with Pauper, I guess we’ll go back into more of a potpourri style of doing things. In the mean time, if anybody can offer me any Vintage advice, I’m all ears!
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Today I’d like to follow up on what Sig wrote on Monday. The general gist of his piece is that during the upcoming holidays Magic finance can take a bit of a back seat for people and that makes opportunities harder to find.
But harder to find is what we do.
Just because people are busy eating turkey and buying presents doesn’t mean that Magic finance goes away. In fact, this can even be an opportunity for us. But first, something far more important.
Merfolk!
First off, I want to draw attention to Threads of Disloyalty, and some of my favorite cards alongside it. MERFOLK!
The deck has been picking up steam, both in eternal formats thanks to True-Name Nemesis (more on him coming in a bit), and in Modern thanks to people finally deciding to experiment a bit and give the deck a go. Mono-blue (my favorite), Blue-Red and Blue-Black builds have all put up some success in Modern, and they share some cards worth noting.
First off are the actual merfolk. Cursecatcher we know about, and Merrow Reejerey has shown some nice movement as well, but not all the cards have moved yet. I think there’s opportunity to make some money on Silvergill Adept, Lord of Atlantis (black-bordered copies), and even Master of the Pearl Trident. I doubt any of these will go wild, but there should definitely be movement, considering Cursecatcher has doubled to $6 in the past two weeks.
Another interesting one to look at is Aether Vial. Thanks to several printings the non-FTV copies are about $13 on TCGPlayer. All these Merfolk decks are definitely playing Vials, and with such a powerful card I could see this pushing to $20 come Modern season.
The sideboards of these decks hold some of our favorite Modern targets for next season like Spellskite, but there’s more than that. Swan Song is something you can get cheaply in trade right now, which seems like an easy play, and Darkslick Shores are another favorite.
But I think the card I first mentioned will spike the most. Threads of Disloyalty is older than the rest and seems to be a constant in the decks. I can see it easily going past $10 in the next month and just staying there like so many Modern specs. Kira, Great Glass-Spinner was just reprinted in Modern Masters, which makes me think it’s probably a better play just having them in your binders than buying in cash.
Future Developments
On a sidenote, I’ve focused heavily on making Merfolk competitive, and it’s interesting to see these lists go through iterations I’ve already made. For instance, Spreading Seas is too good against too many matchups to not have at least two maindeck, and the sideboards are beginning to match up with mine as well.
I think Steel Sabotage will end up falling off the radar, since I’ve found Annul to be more relevant as you can also bring it in against Splinter Twin, Phyrexian Unlife or Pyromancer's Ascension. Hurkyl's Recall, on the other hand, seems like the nuts against Affinity and plausible against Pod, though that’s pretty much it.
One card I think these decks are missing is Cavern of Souls. I’ve gone so far as to cut a Mutavault from my list because you straight lose to not having UU open on turn two. While these lists do run more lands than mine (and four Master of Waves, which feels like too many even though it’s the best card in the deck against Jund), I think Cavern is being skipped over.
It’s incredible against a range of decks, mostly UWR, completely blanking their counters. You get to slam your guys without worry, it casts Aether Vial on turn one and still gives you UU on turn two for your fish. While I’m not sure how financially relevant it will be, it would be the first Modern deck to heavily adopt Cavern.
I couldn’t help myself. When my favorite deck and one I’m pretty knowledgeable about starts breaking out financially, I can’t help but devote some space to it. And it sure doesn’t suck that my foiled-out version is only going up in price by the day.
True-Name Nemesis
I do have to talk about one more fish, though. True-Name Nemesis. After dominating the SCG Open last weekend as expected (some decks even running maindeck Celestial Flares to prepare for it), the card spiked to around $50 on eBay.
That’s not sustainable.
Look, I know that there won’t be “infinite” Commander decks printed. If everyone’s buying Mind Seize and not the others Wizards probably won’t keep printing more, since all five are printed together. But the bottom line is more will be printed, and the price will come down.
The current rush is because people need them for Legacy, but that’s the only format where people will need them. And if prices on dual lands in the last six months are any indication that’s not exactly an expanding format.
My point is there's an artificial cap on demand. I think these will certainly remain valuable, but I don’t think they’ll continue to rise. And just like we saw with Baleful Strix, I believe Wizards will find a way to reprint Nemesis at some point if it stays this expensive and popular.
Add all that up, and I don’t see big short-term gains, nor do I thing the long-term future of the card is hugely bright at $50. Snap-buy the Grixis deck at MSRP, of course, but besides that stay away.
End Merfolk Aside
Okay, back to my original point. The holidays are slow for Magic finance, and Modern is basically a forgotten format for the next few months. In addition, we can be sure that there will be some Black Friday sales around the internet or in your LGS.
Those things scream opportunity to me. I think Modern is probably the best format to trade or buy into right now because the prices are as depressed as they’re going to be considering how far away the season is. Theros is more or less set for the moment as we await redemption to bring prices to the floor, but Modern is a format where prices are already sitting at that floor.
I’ve talked before about the Modern cards I’m interested in right now, and added a few more today. I don’t want to hit you with a massive list again because honestly at this point it’s not about finding the secret new spec. It’s just about taking advantage of a quirk in the calendar that gives us an opportunity to get into the format.
Cards like Path to Exile, Inquisition of Kozilek, Lightning Helix and their ilk aren’t exactly new cards. But they are cards that we can reasonably expect to go up in price come Modern season. Add in things that we’ve been calling for increases on like Spellskite, Birthing Pod and so on, and you’ve got plenty of targets for the next few months.
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After my 3-0, 0-2 performance this weekend in Pittsburgh, I still firmly believe sealed PTQ’s are the best. There is just something elegant about the format, like getting back to the core of the game.
You cannot rely on the latest winning deck list or a sideboard guide to help you through your matches. You must break down your sealed pool, build your own deck from it, and then play it well in order to succeed. There is an incredible amount of skill that goes into playing sealed well. I will definitely be hitting up some more sealed PTQ’s before the end of the season.
I was a little surprised I did not find more success with my sealed deck though. After avoiding the trap of playing white for Heliod, God of the Sun and only three white creatures, I settled on a blue-green aggressive deck featuring Thassa, God of the Sea, Bident of Thassa, and Arbor Colossus. Many of my draws felt like I was playing a constructed deck against my opponents limited deck.
Winning the first three rounds was fairly easy. Once I got to the fourth round I started having to mulligan awkward hands against better opponents with better decks. That was not a good combination. While I did lose to Fleecemane Lion plus Elspeth, Sun's Champion and then Stormbreath Dragon, I don’t think I drew well enough to beat most opponents.
In retrospect, it’s possible I should have tried the underpowered red-black deck with a couple removal spells to combat those two opponents' powerful threats, but I was not sure the red-black deck could actually do anything other than kill one or two guys.
After my second loss, I decided to drop from the event. I was not up to grinding three more rounds for the possibility of a couple packs.
Switching to Standard
After talking to some friends and trading for a little bit, I thought playing Standard sounded fun so I joined an eight man side event. Mono-Blue Devotion has been a ton of fun to play and crushing a side event seemed like a good way to close out my day.
The first round went exactly as planned. I played an extremely fun match against Ben Blum who had built BUG Midrange. The night before, I had been talking to another friend of mine about his BUG list, but I didn’t like the direction he was going with it.
Ben changed everything in my mind about this archetype when he cast Prophet of Kruphix. Prophet is an extremely powerful, underrated card in Standard right now. It always reminds me of Sword of Feast and Famine, and we all know how influential that card was in Caw Blade.
There were a lot of powerful cards in Ben’s unique take on BUG Midrange and even though I defeated him, I really liked the deck. Since the other matches were not finished, we got to talking about the deck, the reason for his card choices, and the breakdown of the exact numbers in the deck.
For reference here’s his list. I didn't have a chance too copy down the whole list, so the manabase may be slightly different.
BUG
By Ben Blum
Untitled Deck
Creatures
4 Sylvan Caryatid
2 Lifebane Zombie
2 Nightveil Specter
2 Desecration Demon
3 Kalonian Hydra
3 Prophet of Kruphix
4 Prime Speaker Zegana
Spells
3 Thoughtseize
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Golgari Charm
4 Hero's Downfall
1 Jace, Architect of Thought
2 Whip of Erebos
Lands
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Breeding Pool
2 Watery Grave
3 Temple of Deceit
3 Temple of Mystery
4 Swamp
3 Island
2 Forest
Sideboard
1 Dispel
1 Whip of Erebos
1 Vraska the Unseen
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Golgari Charm
2 Doom Blade
2 Pithing Needle
2 Ratchet Bomb
2 Negate
2 Duress
After playing a couple of games against the deck and then seeing the actual list, I had some ideas for improvements.
Right off the bat, I knew I wanted the maximum number of Nightveil Specters. That card is a powerhouse in the metagame right now and if left unchecked can win the game on its own. My favorite part about the card in this deck is how great it works with Sylvan Caryatid. Due to the five-color mana fixer, you can start casting your opponents spells right away rather than waiting for the appropriate lands.
Prime Speaker Zegana is at her best in this deck as well. Most often you are playing her as an instant speed blocker that draws cards. When a midrange deck can draw as many cards as a full control deck, it can be hard to stop. Playing her while you have Desecration Demon in play to draw a new seven cards is nearly as unbeatable as a huge Sphinx's Revelation.
What I like least in this deck are the four- and five-drops. Kalonian Hydra for example, is a great threat and a two-turn clock, but I don’t think it advances the deck's game plan of controlling the game. I think we can do better in that spot than the hydra.
Lifebane Zombie seems unimpressive in the maindeck to me as well. At the beginning of the format when everyone had green creatures in their deck, Lifebane was one of the best cards in the format. Now, devotion decks have pushed many of the green creatures out of the meta and I don’t think he is nearly as effective as before. Certainly your sideboard would not be complete without them, but maindeck seems unnecessary.
After playing with the deck a bit, I decided I also did not like Jace, Architect of Thought or Whip of Erebos in the maindeck. Here is the list I’ve been working on.
The BUG Prophet
by Mike Lanigan
Untitled Deck
Creatures
4 Sylvan Caryatid
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Nightveil Specter
3 Desecration Demon
3 Polukranos, World Eater
3 Prophet of Kruphix
3 Prime Speaker Zegana
Spells
3 Thoughtseize
2 Rapid Hybridization
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Golgari Charm
3 Hero's Downfall
Lands
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Breeding Pool
2 Watery Grave
3 Temple of Deceit
3 Temple of Mystery
4 Swamp
3 Island
2 Forest
One main question I have about the updated list is if thirteen removal spells is enough. I committed a little bit of heresy by cutting the fourth Hero's Downfall, but it was getting clogged in my hand too often. The card is one of the best in the deck though, so the fourth may find its way back in.
The replacement I found for Kalonian Hydra was Polukranos, the World Eater. He's just as effective as a threat, but adds the ability to interact directly with opposing creatures. He also provides another huge body so you can draw more cards with Prime Speaker.
Polukranos reminds me of Olivia Voldaren and can be quite problematic for your opponents to remove. You might activate his monstrous ability for just 2 or 3, but that is often enough. Your other removal spells can take down the bigger threats and he will clean up the rest.
In this midrange control deck, Scavenging Ooze is a natural fit. With a bunch of removal spells and Desecration Demon tempting your opponents to sacrifice their creatures, your ooze will grow quickly. In the mid- and late-game, it becomes a huge threat for your opponent to deal with.
Finally, you may have noticed the presence of Rapid Hybridization. Playing with that card in Mono-Blue Devotion showed me just how powerful it really is.
Giving them a 3/3 can be a drawback, but often your creatures are so much larger that a 3/3 just cannot compete. You don’t have the combo with Tidebinder Mage to tap down the token like the blue deck does, but many of your cards already invalidate it.
I know this spot needs to be removal, but trying to play the guessing game between Doom Blade, Ultimate Price, and Devour Flesh led me to find something that deals with any threat. Don’t underestimate the benefit of it costing only one mana. A cheap removal spell is a huge boon in a mana-intensive deck that wants to use all of its mana every turn.
Overall, this deck has proven itself powerful not only in theory but also in testing. I look forward to refining it over the next couple of weeks. If you have an interesting deck list that has been doing well in the metagame, please post it in the comments below and I will take a look at it.
My PTQ ended up turning into me having a great time delving into the inner workings of someone's unique deck that they've been carefully constructing. What did your last event turn into?
Tournament Tips
“When you win, you couldn’t have done any better.”
- Patrick Chapin
This is the attitude I have at every event. Certainly there will be times where the number of lands, both too few or too many, will stop you from winning. Those things cannot be avoided, but that does not stop me from wanting more.
Take the TCG Player Invitational for example. Many of my friends and readers have been encouraging and supportive about my 21st place finish. From my perspective though, I can’t stop replaying the last round over and over trying to find different plays I could have made that would have changed the outcome. If I would have won that last round, I would have finished in the top 16 or possibly in the top 8 with good enough breakers.
Even if I had won the last round though, I would be focused on, “well I could have done better if this would have happened.” I am not the best player, nor the most successful, but this attitude of striving for success is what has made me as good as I am.
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I think that having a strong urge to keep improving my knowledge, skills and abilities is a vital approach to ensure success. For instance I played Call of Duty 2 on the PC almost daily to practice with my team. On the weekends, I practiced from 11 AM till 2 AM which was a mix of strategizing, classic scrims, public servers, theorycrafting, networking and so on. This mindset resulted in my team being number #1 on the European ladders, playing for my national team and reaching the knockout stage of the EuroCup. Similarly this mindset has made me a better player with other games such as Magic, Poker, League of Legends and so on. I feel this mindset can be applied everywhere so today I want to discuss how we can apply the 'Art of improving' in Magic Finance.
On a Macro-level, research and development investments (time & capital) generate innovations that lead directly to increased productivity and to stronger economic growth. At the same time, innovators capture only a tiny fraction of the total financial returns from their innovations (Stratmann, 2005). Though there is empirically evidence that firms which apply persistent R&D perform better than firms with little to no R&D ( Johansson and Lööf, 2008).
But how does this affect us as speculators, individuals and entrepreneurs? I do feel we can continue researching and developing our operations in the Magic Finance world. Any small thing that can help us be more time- and cost-efficient is what I would call innovating oneself. Â I want to set out some examples from my own experiences and clarify why I think these are solid examples.
(Re)analyse Card Evaluations
Back in January, I wrote an article about a case study of Return to Ravnica ( Click here for the article ). Here I discussed the Prerelease prices in terms of the prices three months later. Additionally I discussed the evaluation of Deathrite Shaman.
What's important in the context of Re-analysing oneself is constantly where one can improve his/her way of thinking. In this case I only wrote about Short-Term Implications such as the Fall of Vraska the Unseen. I believe I failed to look at Long-Term expectation/holds of certain cards. So in order to compensate that let's have a look at the new prices now:
I want to highlight the new columns Prerelease Price & Post-Release Price compared to the prices of today. Let's use Sphinx's Revelation as an illustration. It was worth $3.74 because one compared the card to a Blue Sun's Zenith that gains one life (Luis-Scott Vargas, ChannelFireball) while others completely omitted the card (Craig Wescoe, TCGplayer)
The point that I am making here is that after the initial rise of 392% ( From Prerelease Price to Post-Release $18.39 ), there is still an area of growth to be observed. Today a Sphinx's Revelation goes for $24.98 retail which is a 36% growth even if one entered at $18. I think this information is something I have missed because I was tunnel-visioned on the Short-Term analysis & outlook.
A smaller card that performed really well up till now is Ash Zealot, steadily growing by 17% to $3.7 from $3.16 or $1.95 initially. I want to keep this section concise as I want to dedicate a seperate article about this phenomena since I have missed opportunities during Return to Ravnica. A notable loss would be Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius in my portfolio as I saw opportunity at $6.17 thinking it can hit $10+ but instead it plummeted down to $2.
What is important is that doing a performance review in how well you did during spoiler season is important to determine future action. For instance if you did really well in evaluating new cards in a new metagame (regardless if one spend any amount, one can do this for fun too by writing their thoughts down!) , one can allocate more capital to these periods of Opportunity.
Play to Your Out(s)lets
If you are - like me - living in Europe, it is relatively hard to replicate what our US colleagues are doing. Despite having a stronger currency, using mass-purchases on American/Canadian websites just 'taxes' us too much regarding Shipping Cost and Risk% of Custom charges. At the same time selling in foreign currency eats us hard as well:
As of 9th of November the 'real' rate is 1€=$1.335 while PayPal sees it as 1€=1.294 which adds up a lot as well seeing the US eBay market is the biggest and has global reach for us. Another thing to keep in mind is being double taxed regarding currency as your own local bank might convert Euro to Dollar for you while PayPal reverts it back so you get even less.
On top of the real currency exchange; Paypal is charging 3.4% + 0.35 Euro ($0.47) for every transaction below the 2 500 € monthly sales.
Moreover if one uses eBay as a platform we pay an additional 10%. On TCGplayer one pays 8.5%. Thus moving European cards outside the Eurozone is definitely a huge risk. At the same time buying from outside the Eurozone is getting relatively more expensive due to the increased shipping cost.
So without going too deep, using eBay already costs us 15% of our profit margin while being aware the Euro is very strong compared to the US dollar. I only use eBay sparingly like selling Master of Waves during Pro Tour while the EU market has not moved that fast.
Instead one has to look at the opportunities. I use PucaTrade to 'exchange' certain cards that are very hard to move in Ireland and Eurozone. At the same time I put cards on my Want list that are underpriced on TCGplayer while having good demand and above average pricing in Europe. Besides MagicCardMarket there is no central EU Marketplace for us but there are plenty of Trading communities, Buylists and Groups that one can utilize.
However PucaTrade just revamped their website alongside with their Point System. Previoulsy 100 points is $1 worth of the Mid/Average index of TCGplayer. Well that is no more with the newer version, According to their Blog post their ''PucaValue Index is based on data from hundred different sources''.  Their one source was a Solid, Reliable index and now they make it much more shady because most opportunities are gone as one pays a flat premium for high volatile cards. For example Spellskite is $6 low, $8.06 average on TCGplayer while it is $9.54 on Puca. Another example would be Underworld Cerberus, I carelessly maintained it on my want list resulting in people sending the first wave of $2.92 (292 pts) but the 2nd wave it was $3.62 (362 pts) while the average price of TCGplayer index stayed unchanged during this period.
My advice would be to avoid using PucaTrade for Standard/Modern/High volatile cards unless they present (transparancy) how they do their calculations of the Index. The platform itself is fine for Legacy/EDH staples that have a stable price trend.
Ireland is a relatively small community where I operate in. Additionally I still trade on Dutch websites to move cards I cannot move appropriately here due lack of Demand or Lack of Supply (They just don't have the cards). I'm constantly exploring other communities to take participate in as it is one of the best ways for me to trade accordingly and sell the higher end cards.
Centralizing
The last thing I want to dicuss in this article is Centralizing one's collection. I use 5 different platforms to trade, sell, buy cards from and keeping everything up to date is becoming a real MMORPG grind. I used to do it separately on each site with its different HTML/BB coding but it is very inefficient.
Instead I have a Google Document without any formatting and found several websites that do the following jobs for me:
It is very annoying to skim through lists that are not in alphabetical order and I think most of my trading partners have the same thing. Therefore this is very handy in case your Trading Platform does not have this build in. I mostly sort on colour first and make every color list alphabetical.
On certain platforms, one has to add tags to redirect them to the page of the card. A prime example would be Nedermagic.com where one has to add the {=, } tag so {=Quiet Speculation} would be seen on your profile as Quiet Speculation
Once again, a good first impression is a good way to attract new trading partners and I mostly feel repulsed when I see a page where his cards are not formatted appropriately as it takes more time to inspect his list.
Awareness of Arbitrage
Arbitrage is defined as a trade that profits by exploiting price differences of identical or similar financial instruments, on different markets or in different forms. (Investopedia)
To put simply what Arbitrage means: Restoration Angel (9th of November) has a 38% spread, buylisting at $3.10 (CardKingdom) while the Average price is $5 on TCGplayer. However in certain communities I am active on, the card buylists at €4 ($5.34) but I can trade it at 10€ as the Shop that runs the community sells it at that price.
Immediately one has to realize one does not make real profit (That is end up with cash as most liquid asset) but instead one can trade this card in for cards that are closer to market prices and obtain a higher buylist price overall. Understanding that these stores lack the motivation to lower their price is important as one can easily trade these cards for stable or new Standard cards.
End thoughts
I feel there is much more to talk, discuss and reflect on regarding our development as speculators in the Magic Finance Environment. I feel one can use the same strategies utilized in other industries. Also Trial & Error is an approach that can quickly determine what works and what doesn't at a relatively small risk compared to Global conglomerates.
I am looking forward to what gives you a significant edge compared to the masses. In other words: what do you do significantly better, more efficiently that you can consistently outperform the majority of the people active in the MTG finance world.
Thank you for reading & I am looking forward to your critique, suggestions and/or disagreements!
Johansson, B. and Lööf, B., 2008. The Impact of Firm’s R&D Strategy on Profit and Productivity. CESIS Electronic Working Paper Series, [Online]. 156, 28. Available at: http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:487391/FULLTEXT01.pdf [Accessed 09 November 2013].
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If you don't have a Twitter account, I am going to have to insist you get around to it, and sooner is better than later. I don't want to harp on it too much, considering that telling people how to live their lives is literally all I do on Gathering Magic, but seriously, get it together. Twitter is a useful tool and you miss out on a lot of great info if you abstain.
You know what else you miss out on? A lot of good drama. I give the drama on Twitter this weekend a 10/10.
This weekend, a relatively unknown new player was 7-0 in the Magic Online Championship Series. He became disappointed when the event crashed and he couldn't finish it despite being a lock for Top 8. That player ultimately took it well and graciously accepted the consolation of ten boosters, a Scrubland and free entry into the event when it's rescheduled.
Just kidding, it happened to Brian Kibler and he lost his mind.
All hyperbole aside, Mr. Kibler was (understandably) upset about how things went down. Free entry in a make-up event just serves to take up two weekends instead of one, especially given that he chose to play the MOCS instead of attending Blizzcon, which I'm told is some manner of convention, but not for meteorologists, so I'm not interested. Skipping Blizzcon is a bit of a sacrifice; skipping Blizzcon and Grand Prix DC, the only Legacy GP a year they deign to give us, is untenable.
Do I think Mr. Kibler handled this in the most mature way conceivable? Probably not. Look at what he titled his blog post for example. "I had a bad time, so let's torch MODO and salt the earth so that no online game may grow in its place?" But does he have a point?
Separating Fact from Fiction
Let's look at a few facts. Magic Online is over ten years old at this point. That's a fact. It's also a fact that the new Beta client is a bag of dicks. That may sound like an opinion, but when an opinion is shared universally, it starts to be accepted as a fact. In this case it's one few dispute.
Kibler points to the example a League of Legends event that had connectivity issues and the result was that the team recoded portions of it to run smoother. If you really take an objective look at the crux of his argument, what he wants is simple.
Maybe the sensationalist nature of the blog post's title threw people, but all he is really asking is for WotC to fix their tech and make sure the game can run on the interwebs. That's not super unfair, and if someone is going to use a bully pulpit to complain about something, I'd rather it resulted in affecting change that benefits all of us.
The twitterverse was not without lots of hyperbole today, though.
Tweets like this come with a free tin foil hat.
What Did We Learn?
Nothing, clearly. How do I know? Because there was a MODO PTQ on Sunday, the day after the MOCS crashed.
Can you guess what happened?
We learned that MODO is broken. No official word on what Wizards is doing to address the broken nature, but in the meantime, we should steer clear. We learned that Wizards is more likely to pay attention to one man if that one man is Brian Kibler, but that is not to say the rest of us are totally powerless, especially if we can raise our collective voices to a loud enough din.
Wizards will have to fix Magic Online. This will cost money. What we have to do is make it clear that it will cost more money not to fix it.
Something tells me, though, that we're not going to have to make too much racket. They know something is wrong, and they aren't so insane as to hold a makeup event that's also doomed to crash rather than change anything. In the meantime, if your time is too valuable to accept, "Here's a free event entry, some packs and a promo," then I would steer clear of MODO.
It's worth noting, however, that this is not the first time a MOCS event has crashed. It's something like the third or fourth, and the MODO PTQ crapping the bed that was still slightly damp from the MOCS crapping the selfsame bed the previous night looks really bad.
Surely WotC knows there is a problem. What's not as certain is exactly what they're doing to fix it. This is apparently not a new phenomenon, but it is one of the first times that someone has made quite so public a stink about it. I think it may force Wizards' hand a bit, which is great. If it doesn't, there is a much greater awareness now and future failures to finish events will only cause an increase in stink-making.
Sure, the tech platform is old, but it's not as though this is the only online game, and it's not as though it has the most traffic either. There are people who know how to fix this, the only question being whether or not they'll be brought in to help. If they aren't, and MODO's flagship tournament ends up crashing more often than Billy Joel after a week-long bender (he wrecks into people's houses a lot--look it up) then the future of MODO is pretty uncertain.
Logical Reactions
The lack of a credible alternative to MODO has made people complacent, both in the player base and at WotC. I saw this sentiment echoed a lot over the weekend.
Right now the community is like a patron at a restaurant who calls the waiter over to complain about their entree, but when the waiter picks up the plate to take it back to the kitchen starts whining, "Hey, I was eating that..."
We're going to have to pick. We can either patronize MODO and tolerate how bad it is or we can complain and hope it gets better. As long as we're willing to accept things as they aren't they won't change. As much as the twitterverse gave Kibler a hard time for speaking out, he got a dialogue started that is likely going to result in some changes happening, either a tech upgrade to MODO or an exodus away from it.
Going 7-0 in an event isn't good enough to win the way things are currently going. Right now, the only way to win is to not play.
Paper Is Different
It's totally possible to win in way other than "not playing" if your format of choice is paper Magic. Card-based Magic the Gathering has a 0% "cataclysmic event failure" rate, at least due to the interface crashing. Sure, the reporter software craps out, and I think there was a South American GP that got flooded out or something nutty, but paper is still your best bet.
The was a Grand Prix in Valencia, but, lucky for me, it was Limited. There aren't too many financial implications of a Limited Grand Prix, so I feel pretty good about skipping it.
The weekend wasn't all shattered dreams and booster drafts, however, as some people gathered in Dallas to sling some cardboard.
Hal Brady took it down with a solid if unimaginative green-red list that has been showing up consistently since it was debuted by Team Japan at the PT. I think ten planeswalkers is an awful lot when the best abilities depend on a high creature count, but with no spells besides creatures and walkers, you won't whiff too often with Domri Rade, one hopes.
I was initially underwhelmed with Xenagos, the Reveler and still am--I think he's very narrow. However, this is the deck that wants him and he is acceptable here. Voyaging Satyr to untap Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx continues to get there, and monstrous mana seems pretty easy to produce.
R/W Devotion continues to be a red devotion deck that occasionally chains something to some rocks or assembles some legions. I am not sure how much I like Aurelia's Fury, but some people swear by it and it's hard to argue with results.
As decks continue to get ballsy and splash other colors without hurting devotion and running Nykthos, they gradually run fewer and fewer copies of Burning Earth. I think that's probably a mistake, but maybe the addition of white is more relevant than the pain you put on decks with Burning Earth. This R/W build seems like it's been outperforming Mono-Red lately, so Burning Earth's day may have come and gone already. Odd in a format laden with Nykthos, kind of understandable in a format with mono-color devotion decks.
U/W Control seems like it shouldn't be as good as Esper without access to Thoughtseize, but if you compare the third place U/W with the fourth place Esper deck, the U/W has better mana and no Blood Baron and that's about all. A little more counter magic to replace the spot removal may be well positioned in the current format where it's more important to stop big spells from happening than to take them out one-for-one. Could Mistcutter Hydra start to get there if Esper transitions toward U/W? I think Esper has a better sideboard.
I like the white-red aggro decks a bit more than the devotion build. Cards like Daring Skyjek are getting there, which I think is fun. Soldier of the Pantheon is down 33% from its peak--if these hit $2 you likely buy in. However, with so many possible decks, so many copies of non-mythics and so many copies about to be infused with the upcoming redemption, it seems likely that the heyday of the $5 staple rare may be behind us. Still, I think Soldier of the Pantheon is a sleeper--there are a lot of indications that Journey into Nyx will have a lot more multicolored spells and creatures.
U/G Devotion looks even more like a draft deck I would have liked to play than Mono-Blue devotion did. Adding Frilled Oculus seems cheesy. What's wrong, was the shop out of Beetleform Mage? Master Biomancer is clearly the big payoff here. Biomancer is simply bonkers with Master of Waves, but is that worth running Temples and Pools?
I sure hope Burning Earth plummets because I think it's got some room for growth above where it is now and I want to buy in cheap. Mana bases are getting greedy.
Chris Jabr got 9th with a deck that looks awfully similar to this build and I for one welcome our populating overlords. I think the deck is a fine choice, and with the format speeding up, Trostani is poised to do a lot of work.
Ryan does a good job of breaking down card choices and it's good to see someone else give the strategy a shot. If the best weapon Esper has is Supreme Verdict, Rootborn Defenses is GG. Call of the Conclave isn't in Ryan's build; I would look at both lists and see which way you're inclined to lean.
Jody Keith is another person who realizes you don't need to be mono-black to trigger the same amount of devotion as you would if you were, so he shored up bad matches with Abrupt Decay and Golgari Charm, both of which do work against the format. Greedy, greedy manabases are popping up--this list is 55% non-basic. Fanatic of Mogis, Chandra's Phoenix and Burning Earth are calling my name.
I think the takeaway lesson here is that the new trend is to splash a color into mono-colored devotion decks to give them more reach. Temples plummeted from $6ish to around $3ish and I think now is an excellent time to buy in, or trade in if you're not feeling that ballsy. Mono-color ain't what it used to be, and if people are willing to run guildgates, they'll run temples.
To that end, I think the temples in the next set will take a cue from the temples in this set. If these temples don't go up too much before the next set comes out, I think they will be underpriced initially. Combine that with them being in a smaller set and I think those temples have even more growth potential, and being in RTR colors doesn't hurt either. GB, GW, UR, UW and BR are all content to run guildgates now--they'd love a strict upgrade.
Let's look at Legacy while we're at it. I want to see how many Merfolk decks made the Top 8.
One Merfolk deck, packing two copies of True-Name Nemesis. This bodes well for the continued sales of Commander decks and for the gigantic pile of Master of the Pearl Trident I bought to make Corbin look like a jackass. I seriously overbought and they are sitting in my box of shame now. They haven't gone down from where I bought in, which makes me feel good. They should be on their way up, which makes me feel great. But was this Merfolk deck in 5th the only deck packing Nemesis?
Nope! The winning U/W Stoneblade deck found a way to jam some of them and why not? True-Name Nemesis can hold a piece of equipment as well as the rest of them. On the podcast last week Corbin and Ryan disagreed about whether Merfolk wanted to add white to jam Stoneforge Mystic. I'd like to say they were both wrong, but it's more accurate to say they were both right.
Corbin was right that Merfolk won't trifle with Stoneforge, which slows the deck down and jacks with the mana base. Ryan was right that True-Name Nemesis plus Stoneforge plus equipment is nutty. He was wrong about the exact deck it would go in, but it makes sense. Why mess around with a few silly merfolk lords when True-Name Nemesis plus Jitte or Batterskull is enough of a clock on its own?
The U/W Stoneblade deck was already in place. I expect it to get a little more popular, the big potential gainer being Stoneforge Mystic. Let's not rule out TNN-SFM teamups in other UW decks. Anything can happen. The format is a living thing.
Avery Williams wasn't able to deal with the permission and the clock that U/W came with. I like ANT and it is a boilerplate deck in Legacy. I am calling it the Pet Deck of the Week because it nearly won and because too many people played Reanimator, which makes it seem like a regional choice more than anything.
I love the Suicide Blue Black deck. Going super greedy with Thoughtseize, Gitaxian Probe, Dismember, Force of Will and Snuff Out allows you to play a Death's Shadow that may actually live when cast.
This is a classic blue-black permission deck with a modern twist. I love how much work Baleful Strix does here, and Tombstalker is an excellent choice. Paradoxically, Dark Confidant would probably deal too much damage in the deck despite you wanting to have a precarious life total. Making a decision to take 2 from Probe is one thing. Topdecking Tombstalker to your Bob reveal is another. Gerry T would jam Bob, though. You think you're better than Gerry T?
Why not add a little black to the Stoneblade deck? Strix can jam a sword as well as Nemesis, which also showed up in Kyle Edwards' list. I think True-Name Nemesis is here to stay, which is fine with me. I love a good race.
Tombstalker is also popping up in BUG Delver lists. I think if I'm GBx in Legacy, I want to be on red for Punishing Fire, but giving them life may be too painful when racing a Nemesis. How long until people start to jam Bant with Stoneforge, Nemesis and Tajuru Preserver? Suck it, Liliana! Until that day, expect Edict effects to be the best way to deal with your Nemesis.
I think U/W/R Miracles is decently-positioned as well. However, the fact that True-Name Nemesis is blue means they have a decent shot at countering your hail mary Terminus, which is probably why the U/W deck won this event. U/W/R will figure it out eventually. I don't know whether it's a Tier 1 deck right now--a raft of good, uncounterable spells came along and made me less jazzed about running Counterbalance. Still, sweepers will get better.
Jody Keith who also top-sixteened Standard made Top 8 with Tezzerator. I like that deck and it's getting more affordable with copies of Transmute Artifact being injected back into the market and Strix getting cheaper. Better get City of Traitors now, if you intend to. Barring a reprint, those are poised for another jump.
Legacy is a dynamic format no matter what anyone says. With Commander decks selling like hotcakes, any worries about stores like Walmart holding back copies of Mind Seize because no one is buying the unpopular Naya deck--it has a half-assed Doubling Season though, which I think is a sleeper--should be laid to rest. The decks will all sell and we'll have plenty of True-Name Nemeses to go around.
I wouldn't hold these at all. Remember, True-Name Nemesis is this set's Flusterstorm and we have no idea which card is the Scavenging Ooze yet. GP DC should tell us that info if history is to be believed. One of the other four Commander decks has a single in it that will get popular but it's hard to know which. Right now, you might as well buy them all. That may be the only way to win.
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Hello again! I've had to slow down my contributions to this site to bi-weekly for the moment. I have a wedding in 60 days and it's amazing how many little things there are to take care of. Previously I walked through some code I was using to enumerate the events Wizards was posting. Today I'm going to walk you through how I scrape them. At the end of the article, I want to discuss Liliana and see.
Automation:
Today lets dabble in a little more code. I'm not going to go overly deep because I expect most readers of this site aren't developers, but I'm hoping it will be interesting to get a basic idea of how web scraping can work.
Previously we used the URL http://www.wizards.com/handlers/XMLListService.ashx?dir=mtgo&type=XMLFileInfo&start=14 to get a list of rows that look like this:
Now we want to focus on scraping the actual event data, and we can do so using the event number field. Looking at the URL for a recent Legacy event, you can see that the event number is used as the unique identifier for the event in the URL:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/digital/MagicOnlineTourn.aspx?x=mtg/digital/magiconline/tourn/6257942
To dynamically find all the event pages in code, I just need to create a URL variable with the event number dynamically added at the end like so: string url = 'http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Digital/MagicOnlineTourn.aspx?x=mtg/digital/magiconline/tourn/'+e.Event_Number__c;
Once again, we are going to use this URL to make an HTTP GET request in code to get back the source code of the event detail page. This should look familiar:
HttpRequest req = new HttpRequest();
req.setEndpoint(url);
req.setMethod('GET');
Http http = new Http();
HTTPResponse res = http.send(req);
string resNoWhite = res.getBody().deleteWhitespace().substring(resNoWhite.indexOf('<ahref="#decklists">Decklists</a>'),resNoWhite.indexOf('<p><b>Standings</b></p>'));
The final line may look a little complicated. In a manner similar to the way Excel allows the chaining of formula commands I am taking the response body and performing some modifications. First I delete all the spaces in the source code, and then I use the substring command to grab the middle chunk between a start point and endpoint of my choosing. This allows me to filter out a lot of the cruft. I'm left with a variable string named resNoWhite filled with the source code for the event detail page. Here is an abridged look at what this looks like:
Now we get to the magic. How do you take a long chunk of text like the above and extract the juicy bits that are obviously in there, like place, cardname, and quantity? I use one of my favorite things in the whole wide world: regular expressions! If you aren't familiar with regular expressions (regex for short), wikipedia defines them as: a sequence of characters that forms a search pattern, mainly for use in pattern matching with strings, or string matching. If you have ever seen one, they can be complicated and horrible to look at but can make the process of filtering through text very very simple!
In the above code block I start the search process by creating a new regex pattern named Deck_Pattern. Then, depending on whether the event is Premier or Daily, I use a different pattern. For the Legacy event focused on in this article, the piece of text being searched for is Boin(4-0)
Focusing on the pattern, we can pick it apart piece by piece:
<heading> = This is literal text, so it looks for an exact match.
[a-zA-Z0-9._ ]+ = This block defines a character set that includes all the allowed characters in a user name. The + at the end says look for any character in this set repeated 1 or more times.
\\([43]-[10]\\) = This block looks for the placing, (4-0) or (3-1). The slashes are escape characters since ( and ) have special meaning in regex, but I want to use them literally.
</heading> = This again is literal, and looks for the exact match.
The final step of the code takes this pattern and uses it against the variable holding the source code body. By using this command repeatedly, I can hop to each new deck in the source code. In the next article I'll go a little deeper on the pattern matching for each individual deck (this will probably be the last article on this topic).
Speculation:
For the speculation side of things, I thought it might be fun to focus on Liliana of the Veil, a card everyone has been wondering about when to purchase! I've harvested 4,280 Modern decks and 1006 Legacy decks in the last 6 months, so there are quite a few numbers to look at!
Lifetime Winning Quantity = 496
Average Quantity Per Deck = 2.58
Name
Lifetime Winning Decks
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
312
Entreat the Angels
207
Liliana of the Veil
192
Batterskull
139
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
138
Griselbrand
136
Mindbreak Trap
109
Omniscience
69
Mox Opal
38
Enter the Infinite
34
Financial Stats:
This is a chart of the Supernova bot's buy prices over the past 2 weeks, with a 2 day simple moving average and 10 day simple moving average added for comparison.
Analysis:
Liliana of the Veil is a tough lady to figure out. She did not devalue as much as I had hoped with rotation, but I'm not sure this makes her a bad target. Being played in 16% of modern decks and 19% of legacy decks is a great sign for her continued desirability. The fact that she is from a recent, heavily opened set and still maintains the status as one of the most expensive mythics in the game gives me a lot of confidence in her future price trajectory. I was a big fan of Jace, the Mind Sculptor several years back for this exact reason and that card went back over 80 tickets after its rotation drop. I am usually afraid of locking up my capital in an expensive target, but there is also something to be said in the efficiency of this kind of speculation. I may make 300% on a junk rare that goes big, but it will take me a lot of time to get that 300% back out of my cards if I have 200 or more of them to sell. A price gain of 15 tickets on 20 copies could result in 300 tickets of profit for just a few minutes of work with the bots. As my wedding approaches the value I'm placing on my time has begun to skyrocket, so a move like this is right up my alley right now.
In regards to the price chart, I think the 10 day moving average does a really good job of showing when good times to buy are. Until the current price drops below the moving average, I'm probably going to stay out of Liliana of the Veil. I'm going to watch carefully over the next 2 weeks and hopefully pull the trigger as she gets closer to a sell price of 40 tickets. Generally this would be a buy price on Supernova of around 37-38 tickets.
Conclusion:
That's it for this week, thanks for reading! Next time I'll finish up my discussion on scraping decklist data.
On a completely separate note, I have a beta account for Hearthstone and an alpha account for Hex. It's sad to compare the state of these products to the state of the MTGO beta. Hex seems particularly targeted at the MTGO user base, as the game is very similar in many aspects. Unfortunately neither of these games have mobile applications just yet, but when they do they could pose serious competition to MTGO. Anyone else trying these games?
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Today we'll be revisiting my speculation binder to see what updates have occurred since the last post.
Ancestral Vision (-8)
I've unloaded 8 copies of my 12 Ancestral Visions. I got rid of them a few months ago when the BUG cascade decks were the big thing in Legacy. These decks caused the price of Ancestral Vision to go from $3.5 to $8.50. I felt that a 240% profit was a solid gain and enough to reduce my holdings.
Garruk Relentless (+7)
Garruk is still seeing minor Legacy play and I believe he has a lot of potential in Modern. He can protect himself (by killing small creatures), make tokens, search for creatures, and his ultimate can end games with a decent board state (and creatures in the yard). His current price is low enough that I have no issue picking more up at reasonable prices.
Lotus Cobra (+6)
I still really like Lotus Cobra as a mana accelerator for Modern. The plethora of fetchlands means that he still allows for some explosive starts, however the rise of Deathrite Shaman has taken some of the wind from his sails as the mana accelerator of choice for the format.
Lotleth Troll (+2)
While I still like the troll I feel that he would have broken out by now if he was ever going to. He does provide one of the better discard outlets in Modern in the absence of Putrid Imp and Wild Mongrel. I do feel like this card's greatest potential would be if dredge cards were unbanned in Modern. The increase in my holdings is strictly due to getting them as throw-ins during normal trades.
Crypt Ghast (-1)
The reduction in my holdings is solely due to having to pull one out to fill out a trade. I still like Crypt Ghast as a long-term spec and will continue trying to pick them up over time.
Detention Sphere (-6)
The demand for Detention Sphere has jumped up thanks to the Esper Control decks becoming tier one in Standard. I was able to trade off all six at $4-4.50 a piece (a 100% profit) in trades.
Blood Baron of Vizkopa (-7)
I have sold out all the Blood Barons I originally speculated on. The new Standard format caused this card to jump from $7 to $20. I was able to buylist a playset getting $21 in credit (with the bonus) and traded off the other three at $20 each. I still think it's a strong card, but the format is still pushing towards mono-colored devotion decks so I see him dropping a bit more.
Deathrite Shaman (+1)
I am always looking to boost my holdings of Deathrite Shaman but they are difficult to pick up in trade as many players are in the same mindset. I do have a concern that they (or Abrupt Decay) will show up in the Jace vs. Vraska deck coming out next year.
Abrupt Decay (+7)
This is still one of the best removal spells in Legacy. The ability to destroy any nonland permanent for GB is still a great deal, let alone the fact that it's uncounterable. As mentioned above, I do have some concerns about a reprint in the Jace vs Vraska deck, but the current prices shouldn't drop as much simply due to a reprint--RTR was a hugely opened set, so plenty of Abrupt Decay's are already in circulation and demand has set the price to around $7.
Fetchlands & Shocklands
My holdings on these haven't changed much. I did use a few fetches towards larger trades and swapped shocklands with my local store to help keep their stocks full (as well as trade excess shocks of one type for another I had fewer of.)
Terminus (+9)
I love the current price on Terminus. The fact that it has the miracle mechanic means that a reprint is unlikely to occur and it's still a wrath effect for one white mana. I think that the price is only this low currently because Modern is lacking a solid control deck. Should Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Ancestral Vision get unbanned I expect Terminus to double in value overnight as the only thing holding it back is the inability to put cards in your hand back on top of your deck (Ă la Brainstorm).
Restoration Angel (+9)
I'm a big fan of Restoration Angels currently. It sees play in several Modern decks (U/W/R Control and Kiki-Pod) and it pairs well with every creature with an ETB effect. I feel like it could easily find it's way back to the $10-$12 range come Modern season. My holdings include both the promo and regular versions.
Legion's Initiative (+1)
Another Standard mythic that started out high and plummeted when it saw no play. I still feel like the crusade effect coupled with the ability to protect your nontoken creatures from mass removal (and trigger ETB abilites) makes for a card with potential. The increase in holdings was another throw-in trade.
Snapcaster Mage (+5)
Snapcaster Mages are highly liquid and easy to trade and sell. The price is well established and he gets better as more instants and sorceries are printed. It's surprising how little play he's seeing in the eternal formats currently, but his ability is incredibly powerful and his creature subtypes are relevant.
Enter the Infinite (+2)
This card is incredibly powerful and comes from a less-opened set. It's a key component in the Omni-Show deck (along with Omniscience). I happily pull these out when picking up bulk and keep them for the binder. I don't foresee it jumping up considerably, but $5 seems like a perfectly reasonable price point to hit.
Counterflux (-8)
I had hoped this card would jump up in value after rotation, but the control decks shifted to Esper colors rather than R/U. I still get these in my bulk trades so I don't feel a strong need to separate them as such.
Griselbrand (+8)
Griselbrand is the card I am speculating the most on right now. He plays a major role in several Legacy decks (Reanimator, Sneak and Show, and Griselstorm). If he wasn't banned in EDH he'd likely be a $30-$40 card. I feel that he's likely to follow Emrakul, the Aeons Torn's price point as they are played in many of the same decks. The fact that he comes from a third set is only gravy.
Huntmaster of the Fells (+7)
With the banning of Bloodbraid Elf in Modern the four-drop slot for Jund decks is open. I think there's a strong chance that Huntmaster might fill that void, but I will say he's fighting for the open slots with Garruk Relentless, Kitchen Finks, and Scavenging Ooze.
Scavenging Oooze (+11)
I love Scavenging Ooze as a Modern spec. He was not legal during the last season and the fact that he nullifies the Melira Pod combo deck may reduce that deck's playability. He will help keep Tarmogoyf in check and will often be found alongside Goyf in many Modern decks.
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As the holiday season approaches, MTG finance always falls to the back burner. People focus more on spending time with friends and family rather than what the next MTG speculation may be. This makes perfect sense, and in a way it’s consistent with Wall Street investing as well, where volumes always come in a little lighter around the holidays.
What does this mean for those of us who are still seeking opportunities? It means we need to exhibit patience. Let’s face it. There just isn’t a lot going on right now. Last week’s interests from mtgstocks.com helps to illustrate this point.
Graveborn Blazing Archon aside, only one card has grown by more than 15% in the past week. And Zur the Enchanter hardly counts, since he’s been fluctuating up and down like a maniac these last couple weeks. It almost feels like people want this card to be ridiculously expensive, but there are too many savvy speculators who know they should sell into this hype.
Looking closely at this top ten list, I’d argue there are only two cards worth noting.
First, it looks like Corbin’s dream may come true (pun not intended) thanks to the recent printing of True-Name Nemesis. This card may give Merfolk new life in Legacy, leading to the recent jump in Cursecatcher’s price. I’d suspect the other mainstay Merfolk may follow a similar trend. Perhaps it’s time to reacquire cards like Merrow Reejerey and Aether Vial.
The second noteworthy card is Mutavault, which not only sees play in the Legacy Merfolk deck but also sees plenty of play in Standard as well. After jumping up so much in price, I feel Mutavault may be nearing a short term peak--I am looking to sell for profit, taking advantage of this recent spike.
Patience Is a Virtue: Buying
Other than these two cards, I see little of note in MTG finance right now. The Commander decks are a hit it seems. I went to Target to try and find these the other day, only to find exactly zero copies in stock. Here’s hoping shipments continue to come in so I can eventually get my hands on these.
This leads me to my “patience is a virtue” rule number one for the holiday season: don’t rush to buy anything now when sales will inevitably lighten up as the New Year approaches.
This is one anecdotal difference between Wall Street and MTG finance. On Wall Street, light volume means that both buying and selling is light. Therefore, prices could fluctuate higher or lower, but these price fluctuations should not be trusted. With MTG finance, light volume typically leads to fewer buyers on the market. This usually leads to slight dips in price, which are also usually superficial and temporary.
In other words, you may want to watch eBay on Christmas and Thanksgiving. Those who are reckless enough to list auctions that end on these days may find themselves disappointed with low winning bids. Their loss could be your gain.
While I don’t usually cite blacklotusproject.com these days, their chart on Underground Sea demonstrates my point nicely due to the longer time period provided. Also, I believe these data are somehow tied to eBay which makes the chart all the more relevant.
It seems that the months leading up to every January since 2009 have yielded a slight dip in price on this Legacy staple. While never significant, the trend is definitely noteworthy. As an aside, it’s also worth noting that at least for Underground Sea, prices typically increased significantly during the first half of every year. This means there could be profitable opportunities on such November/December acquisitions as early as the Spring.
The trend of fellow Legacy staple Lion's Eye Diamond is quite similar, though the surge of Legacy kept downside to a minimum in Fall 2010.
Even if this doesn’t happen, the bottom line is you won’t see many price jumps in the next two months. Therefore there is little need to feel pressed to make purchases during this time frame. Rather than rushing to buy out TCG Player, this is a great time to throw some auctions onto your eBay watch list and attempt some last minute bids to try and find a steal or two. If you fail, you won’t miss out much on opportunities since I don’t anticipate a whole lot of price movement in the interim.
Patience Is a Virtue: Selling
From the buyer’s perspective, we are approaching a lull in prices. This means an opportunistic time to acquire cards for cheap by patiently watching eBay listings and making strategic bids. Auctions that end Thanksgiving afternoon may yield especially advantageous prices.
On the seller’s side it is important to avoid these same pitfalls. Every year it’s tempting to cash out of some expensive cards to raise more cash for holiday spending. This is especially true for those (like myself) who have young child(ren), and who wish to provide countless gifts to their young one(s) and celebrate a fruitful year. Often times I wonder if my spouse truly appreciates the additional income I’m generating from this “hobby” simply because she doesn’t see any material gains from the endeavor. I try to reassure by emphasizing the reinvestments taking place.
I must emphasize extreme caution when selling during this time period. Natural price dips during the holidays will make prices unfavorable for sellers. While I’ve been emphasizing eBay, I have to imagine volumes are light all across the internet. Even if we look at Underground Sea again, it’s easy to spot a downward trend as the summer ends and fall progresses. I expect this downward trend to continue, albeit slightly, for November and December.
This could be yet another factor working against shocklands, causing their prices to decline even further in recent weeks.
In short, selling here just isn’t favorable. After the recent surge in prices triggered by the Pro Tour, my selling has been near zero. I sold a set of Mutavaults for the reasons mentioned earlier and I sold a lone copy of Hallowed Burial just because. Other than that, the cards I have listed for sale are near zilch. In fact, here they all are on eBay:
Summarizing
tl;dr here: Wait a little longer and then begin your MTG Speculation shopping for early next year. Prices have a tendency to drop during the November/December time frame due to light volume, which could mean favorable buys for the observant and patient speculator. Conversely, selling during this time period may be suboptimal and for the most part I’d recommend against it.
…
Sigbits
I plan to acquire the new dual land cycle in Theros: Temples. But I’m going to wait for their prices to come down a little further. While they have little Eternal playability, they should follow a similar pattern as all other mana fixing lands in Standard. You’ll likely see me write more about these in the coming months.
True-Name Nemesis is still sold out at SCG with a price tag of $39.99. This just isn’t sustainable in the short term (long term is a different story). My hope is to finally acquire the Commander decks as the holidays approach and buying becomes a little lighter.
Heliod, God of the Sun continues to disappoint, and his retail price is down to $7.99. My hope is that this underappreciated god gets some love come Born of the Gods, since white has plenty of powerful cards and Heliod himself seems strong. I’m sitting on my Nyleas as well for similar reasons, although they at least see competitive play. These retail for just two bucks more at $9.99.
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Theros (THS) arrived on the scene at the end of September and didn't take long to shake things up. The Pro Tour in Dublin was the coming out party for the Standard strategies based on the devotion mechanic. Prices have largely stabilized based around the Standard and Block metagames up to this point, so it's possible to do some early analysis on the set's mythic rares.
It's important to keep in mind that THS will be opened more heavily than any large set in the past two years. You have to go all the way back to Scars of Mirrodin to find an equivalent set. This means that every rare, and many mythic rares, will be under steady pressure to drop in price as more and more drafts fire over time. The time to buy any rare or mythic priced above junk levels is a long way off.
The Rating System
I use this rating system to think about the value of mythic rares. I feel the system has utility and is a good way to assess whether or not cards are worth buying. Each mythic is followed by the current price and a rating, either Good Value, Fully Priced or Borderline.
Good Value -- At current prices or in the given price range, this card is a buy and I expect it to see higher prices in the medium- to long-term. These cards are the best speculative targets from a value perspective. Some of these cards might never make a splash in competitive constructed formats, but the risk of loss, if bought at the suggested prices, is low.
Fully Priced -- This is the other end of the spectrum, where downside risks are high. Fully Priced cards might maintain a high price, but further gains are doubtful. Do not buy these at current prices to speculate on.
Borderline -- This is somewhere in the middle of the other two, with some possibility of moving up or down in price. For cards with this rating, further scrutiny is required beyond just the price. If you have a large amount of capital, buy some amount of these cards and scoop up more if the price falls.
All prices are taken from mtgotraders and are current as of November 7th, 2013.
Fully Priced
Ashen Rider: This card needs some help in order to be playable in Standard at the moment as Angel of Serenity has a similar effect for one less mana and sees little play. Ashen Rider is seeing some play in Block, but that probably won't continue as the Born of the Gods is added to the card pool. As the card pool for Block Constructed expands, decks tend to sharpen up their curves. The long-term outlook for this one is barely above junk. If it dips down below 0.40 tix, it'll be worth buying though with the current price at 0.97 tix, this card is Fully Priced.
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver: At the moment, this isn't even a must play in Standard Esper Control decks so in the medium term this should trend lower. If this starts to see serious uptake in Block, it will maintain a price of 10+ tix. Otherwise it should drift down into the 4-6 tix range by the time Journey into Nyx is released. At that time and at that price, I wouldn't hesitate to buy. Current price is 8.20 tix and this card is Fully Priced.
Elspeth, Sun's Champion: It looks like WoTC is starting to get the hang of developing 5 or 6cc planeswalkers as evidenced by the play that this card and Garruk from M14 are getting. I do feel that in the long term this card will fall into the 8-to-10-ticket range. If this turns out to be the case by the release of M15 next summer, I wouldn't hesitate to buy at that price, but at the moment this is 14.74 tix and so it's Fully Priced.
Erebos, God of the Dead: This card shows up in the popular Mono-Black archetype of Standard, but typically only as one-of. This card has 2 tix written all over it down the road. Current price is 7.37 tix and Fully Priced.
Medomai the Ageless: It's doubtful this finds a home in Standard as a 6cc creature has to have an immediate impact to be worth playing. This one is pure junk. Stay away unless it gets down to 0.35 tix or less. Current price is 0.60 tix and thus it's Fully Priced.
Master of Waves: This card is basically already at maximum usage as a four-of in Standard blue devotion decks, which are powered up by cards from RTR block and M14. If blue devotion strategies get more help in Block, that would support the price. There are also rumblings of this card being used in Modern Merfolk decks. However Modern season is still months away and it typically doesn't have a big impact on the price of currently drafted cards anyway. This card should fall to lower and lower prices over time. Current price is 10.19 tix and it's Fully Priced.
Nylea, God of the Hunt: Showing up currently as a one- or two-of in both Standard and Block won't be enough to support the price on this card long-term. Current price is 3.34 tix and thus it's Fully Priced.
Purphoros, God of the Forge: Here's another god to stay away from. They are not good targets in general due to the legendary restriction and the narrow decks they encourage. I'd be interested in almost any god at 1 ticket or so, but the current price is 4.50 tix which means this is Fully Priced.
Thassa, God of the Sea: Basically everything that applies to Master of Waves also applies to this card, including the outlook for lower prices over time. At the current price of 7.49 tix, this card is Fully Priced.
Borderline
Heliod, God of the Sun: As the cheapest of the gods, this gets my contrarian instincts going. Often it can be correct to speculate on the lower-priced cards from playable cycles and then just wait for shifts in the metagame. However, I have the sense that the gods are being looked at as pseudo planeswalkers at the moment which I don't think is correct. I think we'll see three or four of the gods get down to sub 2 tix in the end. Heliod is already almost there at 2.06 tix, so this card is Borderline.
Hythonia the Cruel: Like Medomai, a 6cc creature needs to immediately impact the board somehow in order to get some traction. However, wrath effects can often find a home in Block Constructed even if they are overcosted, so I put this card at not quite junk. Try to get this for 0.50 tix or less, but the current price is 0.78 tix and thus it's Borderline.
Polukranos, World Eater: This is an early staple of Block Constructed where R/G ramp strategies are proving to be popular and successful. But this card doesn't get along with Lifebane Zombie in Standard. This will be one to keep an eye on longer term, but with a current price of 9.27 tix it's Borderline.
Stormbreath Dragon: This card's playability seems high as it has made an impact on Standard and it's one of the most played creatures in Block. From a top-down economic perspective there are non-intuitive reasons to think this card will see high prices in the medium-to-longer term. As more and more of THS is opened, many of the less played mythic rares will drift down in price, and value will accrue to the more played cards, which I think includes this card. It's hard for me to advocate this card as a buy, but it's not the worst idea. I'd be much happier picking it up in the 10 to 12 tix range. Current price is 15.59 tix and it's Borderline.
Underworld Cerberus:Â My own experience testing Jund builds lately shows that this card can be pretty good, but that the Standard environment is not favorable to grindy decks right now. If this gets back down into the 0.5 to 1.0 tix range, I would be a buyer, but right now it's at 1.56 tix, so this card is Borderline.
Good Value
Xenagos, the Reveler: Early on, this planeswalker looks to be a pillar of THS Block Constructed. It's also seeing slightly more play than Garruk, Caller of Beasts in Standard at the moment. There are also two fairly good comparisons to look back on in Garruk Relentless and Koth of the Hammer. Both of these cards maintained prices above 10 tix while they were being drafted. I would not hesitate to accumulate a substantial position in this card over time. Current price of 8.67 tix and this card is Good Value.
Wrapping Up
Every card in THS will be under pressure to come down in price due to continuous drafting over the coming eight months, so there's not much value in buying cards from this set at the moment.
As an online set, THS is cheap relative to paper, suggesting that demand from redeemers should support prices in the coming month. But I suspect that paper prices will continue to fall while online prices stay relatively flat. Buy the cards you need to play with right now, but don't speculate heavily on this set just yet.
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Just a week ago it looked like Standard was “solved” for the time being. The opportunities from Theros had passed and the ones from Return to Ravnica block had already made us money. It was time for a holding pattern until the next set hit the scene.
How much can change in a week.
Some new decks broke out last weekend, and possible financial opportunities along with them. As of this writing not many of these have shown much movement, which means we can still get in on the ground floor.
At this point we’re probably not going to find another Tidebinder Mage that goes from bulk to $6, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t targets to be found. Most of the stuff on this list is cheap right now and probably doesn’t have a super-high ceiling. But we make our money on the margins, and if you’re looking to do any speculating on top of the typical Standard flips, this is where I’m starting.
Let’s dig in.
Standard Cards
Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch
I want to talk about this one first because it’s the most representative of the new R/B Aggro deck that took down the Grand Prix last weekend. I’ve talked about this card plenty before, since it fills the Hellrider hole nicely. But it hadn’t caught on yet, though last week could be the start of the change.
The deck won the Grand Prix but hasn’t showed up anywhere else, though Exava has already seen some movement on MTGO. I know it’s in an Intro Deck so it’s not going to go crazy, but since it’s practically bulk right now a spike to $4-5 still makes us money.
Xathrid Necromancer
Another four-of in the deck that works surprisingly well. A lot of the creatures in the deck are humans, so this certainly makes you a little more resilient to Wrath. We’ve seen how good this card can be in the past, so it may be time to start re-acquiring them in trades. M14 just keeps turning out unexpectedly good cards.
Underworld Cerberus
If anything here is the next Master of Waves, it’s this. I’m personally not of the opinion the card is insane, but it’s been picking up a ton of hype recently, and it’s pretty huge for us that it’s a mythic. That means if it does hit, it’s going to hit hard. At $2 right now, there’s very little not to like.
Assemble the Legion
I mention this one, which had several strong finishes last week, simply because it’s so cheap. I don’t think there’s a ton of money to be made here, but it’s a nice card to have in your binder for sure. I’ll also include Flesh // Blood here, since it was a two-of in a top deck last week and seems like an easy throw-in target that could trade out well to the right person.
White Weenie
Several apply here, since a hardcore Boros Aggro deck won the SCG event last week. Soldier of the Pantheon we’ve talked about before, and it’s likely the best one-drop in the deck.
But if we go a little deeper we can find solid targets in Frontline Medic and Precinct Captain. Fiendslayer Paladin out of the sideboard is also a card we shouldn’t ignore. We know Magic 2014 wasn’t opened a ton, which means the playable cards out of the set have gone higher and higher recently.
On that note, I expect Mutavault to reach $25-30, at which point I’m absolutely getting rid of the ones I have left. It’s a card I liked picking up a lot when I wrote about it a few weeks ago, but the time is coming to sell. It will dip hard closer to rotation, at which point we’ll get back in preparation for the long-term gains.
Speaking of Boros, don’t forget that Boros Charms are undervalued a lot but are worth a solid $2.
True Speculation Aside
There’s another card I’ve had my eye on for a year that hasn’t made a splash yet: Lyev Skyknight.
You’ll notice that the Boros deck in question ran few Red cards, basically just the Charm and a couple of sideboard cards. Right now I don’t think the Azorius version would be great, simply because we have the red-white scry land but the blue-white one. Three months from now when that changes, it’s not hard to imagine that a deck running Azorius Arrester would want a three-power flier that does the same on the next turn.
Unfortunately, as an uncommon there’s not going to be much money made on Skyknights, but it’s the kind of thing you should probably pull out of boxes and stock in your binder, because they will at least trade out well down the road if such a deck comes to pass.
Modern Cards
I’m looking pretty far into the future here, but remember that this is the absolute best time to get into Modern cards. While Modern is certainly more year-round than old Extended was, people still basically don’t care about Modern cards right now. That translates to some absolute steals on the market.
Restoration Angel
This is way too cheap right now. A formerly $20 card played all over Modern now available for $4. There’s nothing not to like here, and I think this has to be one of the easiest Modern calls there is right now, even if the ceiling (this season) isn’t that high.
Spellskite
No card was more ubiquitous in the Top 8 of the last Modern GP than Spellskite, and yet the card has barely moved at all and is still available at $6 in many places. This is from freaking New Phyrexia, people. Third-set, opened for just a few months, followed by massive growth in Magic’s player base.
This will at the least creep up toward $10 this season, and is a great buyout target, which could mean a spike to $15 wouldn’t be at all surprising.
Scavenging Ooze
I include this in the Modern section because it will be Modern season before we see movement here. It’s not proven to be insane in Standard (which makes sense), but it’s as awesome as ever in Modern. Depending on where the price is a few months from now, this will either be an awesome target entering Modern season or simply a mediocre one. Either way, it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Those are my views on speculations right now. Not everything on this list is a slam dunk, but it’s a safe bet the Standard metagame will continue to evolve, and this is my current spec list to stay ahead of that speculation.
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter
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