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Breaking the Curse — TCG Platinum 2nd Place

Posted on July 25, 2013July 25, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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It was 10 pm, I was two hours from home, and had been playing Magic for the past eleven hours. Then it was happening. I was in the Finals of the TCG Platinum event at the always-amazing Empire Games Center and I started mulliganing away my chances. Over and over again until I was down to, that's right, three cards. They were aweful ones too. You'll never guess what happened next...

Flash back to 9:30 that morning.

My friends and I pull into the northeastern Ohio parking lot, the second car to arrive. My carload and I obviously start freaking out and checking the almighty interwebs for the answer to our plight. After much searching we all breathed a sigh of relief as the event was in fact happening, just not until 11 am.

This allowed time for Eat'n Park to happen, an awesome happenstance. Do not underestimate the big breakfast before an event. It provides time for two important things. First, nourishment. Having enough mental energy because you ate and drank enough during the day has a much larger impact on your tournament than you'd think.

The second thing breakfast helps with is allowing your friends to tell you how crazy your deck is. Well, at least that's how it worked for me.

Here's the list I played for the 156-player TCG Platinum event.

Aristocrats 3.0
by Mike Lanigan

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish

4 Doomed Traveler

4 Cartel Aristocrat

4 Blood Artist

2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

2 Skirsdag High Priest

3 Fiend Hunter

4 Xathrid Necromancer

4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

Spells

4 Tragic Slip

2 Increasing Devotion

Land

4 Godless Shrine

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Isolated Chapel

2 Dragonskull Summit

4 Cavern of Souls

4 Mutavault

1 Plains

Sideboard

1 Doom Blade

2 Curse of Death's Hold

1 Pithing Needle

3 Devour Flesh

2 Liliana of the Veil

2 Obzedat, Ghost Council

2 Appetite for Brains

2 Sin Collector

All of these card choices seem logical to me, but from other people's reactions, I know that isn't true for everyone. At least the base of human creatures to support Champion of the Parish should be straightforward. Then, think back to the original Aristocrats deck. This version is really a new version of that deck rather than an update to Aristocrats: Act 2, which featured the Boros Reckoner plus Blasphemous Act combo.

The next card that stands out is most likely Fiend Hunter. This creature/removal spell is definitely the most high-variance card in the deck. When you cast it against nearly any aggro or midrange deck, Jund excluded, the card is bonkers. Against a controlling deck it may well be the worst card in your deck.

That variance is worthwhile due to how many games it helps you win. It gets sided out often.

Thalia may seem out of place here, but she did a great job disrupting not only the spell-heavy decks, but also holding the ground with her first strike ability against aggro. If you have a spell-heavy hand with her, you can sacrifice her for value when you need to play your spells or just pay the extra mana. She rarely gets sided out and is much better than something like Imposing Sovereign.

Next up, we have the "when I saw this on your deck list, I couldn't take it seriously anymore" card, Increasing Devotion. Yes, this five-mana spell does sit in your hand sometimes. Yes, it is castable even with just twenty-three lands.

There were a total of five games where I cast my five-mana sorcery and all five of them I won handily. You could replace this card with something cheaper or different, but you cannot replace what it does for this deck.

The reason the card made it into the deck in the first place was because I needed a late game card I could use my mana on. Increasing Devotion has a long list of applications in this deck but I played it for one main reason. If the only spells you cast are Blood Artist, Falkenrath Aristocrat and Icreasing Devotion, it adds up to exactly twenty damage on turn five.

In addition, it can be a crazy pump spell, create your own Army of the Damned, or create a Blood Artist-fueled Fireball. I wouldn't play any more copies, but the two copies in this deck do some serious work.

Let's find out how this crazy list did in the event.

Round 1 -- B/W Tokens

Game one my opponent got an early lead with lots of Lingering Souls. Luckily my own army kept the pressure up and when I pulled ahead on board he had to start using his tokens as blockers. The game went for a while, but my life total was never under ten.

Game two was even more in my favor. I brought in Sin Collector and Curse of Death's Hold instead of my Tragic Slips and may have taken out the Fiend Hunters as well. None of that really mattered because my clock of turn four and five Falkenrath Aristocrat speedily decreased his life total without any flying blockers to stop them.

Record: 1-0

Round 2 -- G/W Aggro

This was in interesting deck featuring Call of the Conclave, Voice of Resurgence, Loxodon Smiter and Trostani, Selesnya's Voice. Seems like it would be a terrible match for me until you remember that Aristocrats 3.0 is impressive in how well it switches between aggro and control roles.

He had a sick curve game one and I struggled to keep up. Luckily Xathrid Necromancer provides a steady stream of blockers and I finally stabilized at one life. Since I used my life total as a resource and did not block with all of my creatures, I was able to attack for sixteen points of damage which was his exact life total.

As you can imagine, Fiend Hunter was amazing in this match up. Game two went similarly except I had an extra removal spell to slow down his early assault. Obzedat, Ghost Council finally joined the party and gained me enough life and time to finish off the game.

Record: 2-0

Round 3 -- BWR Act 2 Aristocrats

Game one, my opponent got mana screwed and didn't put up much of a fight. Game two was quite a close one though. It started with me ahead on board and him struggling to keep up. He killed my first Blood Artist, but I drew a second one. Even though my opponent was behind on board, he went on the offensive. I was confused at first but then when he attacked me to exactly thirteen, I knew what was going on.

Post-combat, he cast Boros Reckoner and then Blasphemous Act. Unfortunately for him, he didn't understand how the triggers worked. Instead of sending us to game three, he just died to my Blood Artist triggers off his own spell.

His line of play would have been perfect if he had just killed Blood Artist, draining his life at the end of my turn and then killed me on his next turn, but that is not how it panned out.

Record: 3-0

Round 4 -- Esper Control

This type of control deck has exactly one shot to win this match: cast Terminus or Merciless Eviction. If their gameplan involves anything else, you are a huge favorite to win. I would go so far as to say that this match is something like 80-20 in your favor.

Fiend Hunter and Tragic Slip are usually next to useless so even though I did not have a fast clock and he was able to bounce all of my creatures with an overloaded Cyclonic Rift, he did not really have a chance to win this game.

In the second game, I get to bring in ten cards from my sideboard and replace all the bad ones. My opponent must not have been so lucky because he still had Cyclonic Rifts (at least two) and Devour Flesh against my deck filled with creatures that replace themselves. The match was over quickly.

Record: 4-0

Round 5 -- BWR Control

This was as close as matches come in Standard. We are playing the same colors but vastly different spells. He has a pile of removal spells, including four Warleader's Helix and I have guys that give me more guys when they die. You would think this match was easy but they still have all the removal and Olivia Voldaren just like Jund.

Game one I thought I had an unbeatable hand. I kept double Champion of the Parish, double Doomed Traveler, and then proceeded to draw seven lands. Eventually I could not keep up on board with only lands.

Game two I kept a much slower hand of Xathrid Necromancer, double Falkenrath Aristocrat and beat him easily. This goes to show that this deck is capable of many powerful hands using a variety of cards.

Game three my opponent missed his fourth land drop and that tempo loss allowed me to pull far ahead. There was one turn where he could have cast Warleader's Helix and cast something else instead. If he would have gone that route, he would have had another turn to stabilize.

All in all, this was a tough match against a solid player with a cool deck.

Record: 5-0

Round 6 -- R/G Aggro

Against any deck like this, here is my mind set: be defensive, trade with their creatures as much as possible, and try to get your Blood Artist to survive. The most important aspect though is to pay attention to the board state.

Many of my opponents, like this one, did not think they were in danger of losing at a healthy life total of seventeen. Much of what this deck is capable of is sitting in play right in front of you, like how many triggers you can get from Xathrid Necromancer or Blood Artist. I may be at eight and you may be at seventeen, but if I can sacrifice all of my creatures to make a huge Falkenrath Aristocrat to kill you, I still win the game.

It seemed like my opponents did not realize just how many creatures I could get from Xathrid Necromancer as well. The answer is lots of them. If there are ever two in play, you most likely win immediately.

Game two, I thought I was going to win at one life for the second time in this event, but my opponent top-decked a burn spell to stop that from happening. Game three, I was able to stop his early onslaught quickly and then held up my single black mana to Tragic Slip his only out, Hellrider, while I chopped away at his life total.

If I had been more aggressive in this game, I believe I would have died easily. My opponent however, was not aggressive enough and gave me time to set up my board.

Record: 6-0

Round 7 -- ID with Junk Reanimator

There were three undefeated players and I was the one who got paired down. Even though my opponent had a loss and was not guaranteed to make the top eight, he chose to have his win-and-in the next round instead of facing me while I was undefeated.

This does not happen often, where your opponent draws with you like this, but I would have been happy to face this match up. It ended up working out for him since he won the next round and made the top 8.

Round 8 -- Jund Midrange

Despite both of us being a lock for top eight if we drew, my opponent wanted to play out the match. This made much more sense once I was told this event was using the play/draw rule based on your ranking going into the top eight.

This match there were a lot of lands drawn in games one and two. Game one, I'm the one who drew all the lands, and game two he was. Game three, he got stuck on three lands for a turn or maybe two. That brief uninterrupted time gave me time to wear away his life total. Not the most interesting match, but it was interesting to see two solid players trying to win while mana-flooded or light on lands.

Just like that, I was in the top 8! I felt like my hard work over the last year was all paying off. Looking at my results showed I consistently did better when I was bringing my own brew to battle and that's exactly what I did here.

Top 8

Quarterfinals -- Naya Midrange

Just like the match against G/W, Aristocrats showed once more how easily it can switch roles. I was on the defensive for the first half of game one, but then I got in a few small hits until my opponent was at eleven and then was able to set up the kill with the other cards in my hand.

Game two was not as close because Fiend Hunter is that amazing in this match. If you are playing against Xathrid Necromancer, you need to decide if attacking is the best way to win the match or not. They will block and be able to attack you back for as much or more than they could have anyway, so be careful and plan your attacks with that in mind.

After a quick 2-0, I tried to figure out who my next opponent was going to be and did some scouting. While I was scouting the other matches an infectious thought entered my head. I had broken my curse!

Many of you may know that I have been successful at a variety of events in my career. What you may not know is that up until this point, I have never won a match in the top 8 of an event. It seemed like every time I would top 8 an event, some crazy circumstances would occur where I draw the most off-the-wall hand or get all or none of my lands and quickly head home after entering the top 8. That is no longer the case and I couldn't be more excited!

Semifinals -- Jund

In the semis I played against my round 8 opponent. It did not start out well for me. I wondered if I could win with only five cards to my opponent's seven. On top of lots of mulligans, I made a fatal misplay.

This game featured the amazing sequence of Skirsdag High Priest into Fiend Hunter. Luckily he played Olivia so I had a target for my creature/removal spell. From an onlooker's perspective, my attacking with both of my unimpressive creatures into his empty board seemed a fine thing to do. What I meant to do was only attack with the Fiend Hunter. I had a feeling he had an Abrupt Decay in hand to get his creature back, which would have been fine if I had not attacked with an extra creature for no reason.

Additionally, I had two Champions in my hand that I had drawn after the beginning of the game to follow up combat. This line would have left me with a 5/5 demon and three other creatures. Instead, I died quickly to Olivia.

After going down to five cards game one and making a misplay, I still kept my head in the game. It was hard though, since I had to mulligan to five for the second game in a row. Fortunately, my opponent also had to mull to five, and I ended up drawing quite well. The third Falkenrath Aristocrat off the top was the one he couldn't handle and I narrowly won the resource-light game.

Ironically, game three went similar to game three the first time we played. My opponent missed his fourth land drop and I used that tempo advantage to pull too far ahead. It was a close match against a really good player. Game two in particular was one of the most intense games I've ever played.

Finals -- Esper Control

It's now the finals, my opponent is commenting on how horrible this match is for him as he is looking over my deck list, and I am confidant I am going to win a pretty big event.

Shuffling up, my seven has zero lands. Throwing that back, my six is a clunky hand with only one land. Since I was on the play, one land hands are much worse. The five's no good and the four doesn't have any lands. Finally I keep my three card hand.

Here is the one that almost made dreams come true:

Obviously if I had known this, I would have kept my six card hand. But if I were in this situation again I think I would make the same mulligan decisions.

Before we started, once I had my three cards settled my opponent said one of the most memorable things of my career. "His deck is insane. He doesn't need cards."

How true he was. It started by top-decking a Champion of the Parish and then a bunch of land in a row. Then there was a Falkenrath Aristocrat and a Xathrid Necromancer. The game went on and on. Eventually, he cast the normally out-of-place-in-this-match-up Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. That was the card that held me back and helped him win. Once he had an emblem, there was little I could do about an army of Lingering Souls.

Game two was not much of a game. It consisted of Esper Control being as defensive as possible trying to stop my onslaught of Xathrid Necromancer, double Falkenrath Aristocrat, and Increasing Devotion. I put him in a place where he had no outs and had to use the Lingering Souls he drew to just stay in the game.

Game three started out with my confidence sky rocketing as my opponent began mulliganing all the way down to five cards. My opening hand was no good but I kept six decent cards. Then I drew a land, and another land, and another. My chances of winning this game kept going down. Even though my opponent was out of cards with only some Lingering Souls, he did have Vault of the Archangel to race my meager aggression.

If I had only drawn my Curse of Death's Hold or fewer lands or any of a hundred different things, but I did not. I made it to the finals, but that's where myself and my deck ran out of steam.

It was an epic match with a crowd of spectators. This was by far the longest match of the day but also the most enjoyable. Mark was a great guy to play against and I hope we meet again in another finals so I can have another chance to beat him.

The event was amazing and my deck was not only tons of fun to play, but very good as well. My opponents could not find answers to all of my threats. The Jund match is challenging, but winnable, which not many decks can say right now.

There is a lot of play to this deck. You have many decisions to make and even little ones like which creature type to name on Cavern of Souls are crucial to winning games.

I plan to alter the sideboard slightly and remove the Doom Blade and the Pithing Needle for an Oblivion Ring and a Profit // Loss.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Aristocrats Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

P.S. Here's the link to the top 8 decks of the event.

Insider: The Impact of FTV: 20 on Jace

Posted on July 25, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Some huge news came out of Comic Con this weekend, and there’s a lot more to it than just “ZOMG BLACK PLANESWALKERS!”

The other big news was Jace.

It’s safe to say reaction to the Jace reprint in From the Vaults: Twenty was just as passionate as the response to any of the Theros spoilers. Foil Jace, the Mind Sculptor is basically considered Power right now, and From the Vault could change this.

The fact that the FTV version is using the same art only adds to the issue, since you won’t be able to easily tell the difference just by looking. This matters because sometimes in the case of reprints, the “original art” commands a premium.

So how will this affect Jace’s price going forward? Let’s see if we can draw any parallels to cards in similar situations.

Comparisons

Maze of Ith

Maze has had several printings, but the most relevant one came from From the Vault: Realms in August of last year. Since MTGStocks is down at the moment, I’m using ark42.com (which tracks historical SCG prices) as our guideline, which I feel is an appropriate snapshot of the effect of reprints.

Maze fluctuates quite a bit in its history, but topped out at $50 for a six-month period leading up to the reprint. After the reprint, it fell to $40 and is now at $30. While its price decrease is somewhat tied to the demise of Maverick in Legacy (where it was played), it can also be traced to the From the Vaults reprint.

Verdict: A 40% decline, some of which can be attributed to the reprint.

Mox Diamond

Mox Diamond was $50 before the printing of From the Vault: Relics in August 2010. After the printing it dropped to $35, and though it went up again afterwards, it sits today at $35.

Verdict: a 30% decline.

Foil Crucible of Worlds

Here, we can talk about foil prices, though we are comparing a Judge Promo instead of a specialty product. But I still think we can draw some conclusions here, as well as with the next card.

The original printing of Foil Crucible was $60 a year ago, and today is up to $75 despite some additional copies coming in with the judge promo.

Verdict: A 25% increase.

Foil Grove of the Burnwillows

Foil Grove came out in August 2012 in Realms, and that moved the price from $30 to $25, a slight decrease. Of course, now the card is up to $50 since it’s become more of a player in Legacy.

Verdict: A slight decrease, but up 100% today.

Foil Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker and Progenitus

These are a really good comparison because both were in a recent FTV set and both primarily see Eternal play, either in Legacy or Modern, similarly to Jace.

FTV: Legends came out in August 2011, when foil Kikis were $35 and foil Progenitus were around $40. Both came down a little after that, but today both have risen significantly, with Kiki-Jiki at $60 and Progenitus at $50.

These are a little skewed because of Modern, but they’ve also seen an additional reprint in Modern Masters that Jace didn’t. I feel like these two factors somewhat balance each other out and allow us to draw conclusions.

Verdict: Down initially, then up big.

Loyal Retainers

As you’ll notice reading through this, it’s actually really hard to find a precedent for something like this Jace reprint in a FTV set. Loyal Retainers may be the best to look at, since it was in Commander’s Arsenal a year ago.

This is also a flawed comparison, though, given how few there were in the first place, and the fact there were no foils. But the price went from $150 to $130 today.

Verdict: A drop of about 15%.

Conclusions

Like I said, it’s hard to draw definitive conclusions here, but my research and personal experience has led me to this:

Don’t panic.

Regular Jace is $150 now, and could possibly come down to $125 or so in the next few months (SCG has dropped their buy price, by the way). $800 foil Jaces are likely to take a larger hit, simply because the gulf between the current price and what they’ll be available at, even on the secondary market, is so large. Basically, I don’t want to be in on foil Jaces right now, but even if I did have them I wouldn’t panic.

But we see that foils have rebounded in the past, and I have no reason to expect Jace to be any different. Unlike some of the other cards on this list, Jace is as iconic and as much of a staple as there can be, so I don’t expect as much cyclical demand variation as there is with something like Mox Diamond or Maze of Ith.

Personally, I own six Jaces, and based on what I’ve shared with you today I’ve decided to hold onto them. While I think the upside is more limited now, I do think that upside still exists, and now that Jace is seeing a reprint we have less reason to fear a large-scale reprinting in the near future. That means that, while obviously there’s a buy call on sealed FTV: 20, I’m putting a “hold” call on any copies of regular Jace you have.

I’m also leaning toward a “hold or sell” on the set foils, but only from a strict financial standpoint. I don’t think the price is going to come down so far that you can sell at buylist and rebuy in later for cheaper. I think the retail price will come down some, but I don’t think it’s going to implode, at least not over the medium- or long-term.

So that’s where I’m at on this particular issue. What do you guys think? Did I miss any good comparison points that would change my perception of the situation? Let me know.

And thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

A New Take on UR in Legacy

Posted on July 25, 2013July 25, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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I'm not the first to say it, and I presumably won't be the last, but Young Pyromancer is a pretty exciting card. It has a reasonably costed body and nets "free" resources. While this doesn't make it breakable, this criteria almost always makes for a very playable card. Personally, after reading Travis Woo's Twoo Cents on the card I took the last segment in his article as a challenge to find a home for Young Pyromancer in Legacy.

Before I get started, I'd like to address the comparisons that Travis made between Young Pyromancer and the foursome of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Stoneforge Mystic and Snapcaster Mage. I'm of the belief that, particularly in Legacy where mana efficiency is clutch in many games, Young Pyromancer matches up unfavorably with each of these four creatures in a side-by-side comparison. As a matter of fact, my initial interest in Young Pyromancer had to do with the common complaint I've heard that people don't have access to Tarmogoyf and therefore can't play RUG Delver. I thought that Young Pyromancer had some interesting applications as a Goyf replacement for a straight UR tempo deck, but the more I thought about it the more I didn't like this idea.

One of the advantages of RUG is that it doesn't really need to protect its threats most of the time and it can just plan on digging for another Tarmogoyf if the first dies. While topdecked Goyfs tend to be somewhere in the order of 4/5s, topdecked Young Pyromancers tend to be considerably less threatening. It's also going to be worse against the odd Hymn to Tourach or general discards in that stripping you of your spells will leave you with a dorky Goblin Piker. Not to mention that you'll need to cast a few spells before your Pyromancer will really matter. A UR shell also doesn't have access to a good shroud threat, which makes matchups against Swords to Plowshares much worse.

This puts Young Pyromancer in a rather strange position. It belongs in a land-light deck as it generates an effect that is rather small compared to the format at large but it's definitely a worse tempo creature than Tarmogoyf. It wants to generate value, but it also wants to attack quickly. A curious dilemma indeed.

Finding a Home

I don't think I like Young Pyromancer in a Stifle/Waste shell at all. I'm of the opinion that a YP deck is going to want to get to about 3, maybe four lands in play and aggressively cast most of its spells. Some counters are a necessity, but too many reactive cards and we severely diminish the value of our YPs. Seeing as counterspells aren't going to play as well with YP as other types of spells, I imagine that the rest of the creature base should be the manner of creature which does. Delver of Secrets is pretty much a lock, but I don't think we want to look too much like traditional UR Delver lists. Straight burn like Price of Progress and very aggressive creatures like Goblin Guide are severely at odds with a value card like Young Pyromancer.

After messing around with a number of different cards- the Stifles, the Wastelands, Grim Lavamancer and some others I remembered a Nivmagus Elemental list that Caleb Durward suggested some time ago. The idea of the deck involved casting some spells and making a huge Nivmagus Elemental with a Flusterstorm. While a fast, huge Nivmagus and a slow team of 1/1s off of Young Pyromancer are dramatically different game plans, both revolve around the same types of cards, which give a potential Nivmagus/Pyromancer deck somewhat disparate angles of attack with interchangeable parts. Intriguing.

If I wanted to play this style of deck, this would be my starting point:

UR Delver

spells

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Nivmagus Elemental

4 Young Pyromancer

3 Daze

2 Spell Pierce

4 Flusterstorm

4 Ponder

4 Brainstorm

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Forked Bolt

1 Fire/Ice

2 Thought Scour

4 Force of Will

1 Dismember

lands

2 Island

1 Mountain

4 Volcanic Island

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

2 Polluted Delta

Matchup Speculation

I imagine that this deck is actually somewhat better against combo decks than RUG Delver is, given the inclusion of maindeck Flusterstorm along with the fact that Nimble Mongoose and Tarmogoyf aren't exactly RUG's heavy hitters in those matchups.

I would have to test this deck against RUG, because I could see it going either way. Nivmagus Elemental is going to be difficult for RUG to deal with in game one, and UR gets Submerge out of the board, but RUG's Red/Blue Blasts are quite powerful and Tarmogoyf is pretty significantly stronger than any singular spell in this UR list. I wouldn't be surprised to see the matchup swing either way.

The natural and obvious predators of decks like this from my perspective are going to be UW control decks and Abrupt Decay decks. These are the matchups where RUG can crutch on Nimble Mongoose to ignore removal spells, whereas UR needs to draw a healthy amount of creatures and/or counters to stay on the board.

Cutting Wasteland is also going to make the occasional Maze of Ith or Tabernacle annoying, and it's entirely possible that not playing Wasteland is just wrong, but I feel like this deck wants to be spell heavy and land light, so I'd start testing without them, fully ready to concede the error if it turns out to be one.

Perspective

As of now, I present this deck as a "budget" alternative to RUG Delver, with some different strengths and weaknesses that, in all fairness, might just make the deck worse, but at a glance I'd be surprised if something close to this list wasn't competitive.

If Young Pyromancer is Legacy playable it's going to be in a shell that contains many of these cards- this I can say to a certainty. I'm also fairly confident in the assessment that Nivmagus Elemental will make the deck's varying game plans difficult for opponents to play around.

I intend to throw this together and see how it fares at some local Legacy events. Without a good amount of testing of key matchups I wouldn't bring it to a 5k or anything like that, but with some tuning it very well might be good enough. Any comments or suggestions are more than welcome.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: The Future of Enchantments is Now

Posted on July 24, 2013January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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Read your alerts? Good. Enchantments are a thing in Theros. Ideas about specing for Modern, Legacy and Vintage are expected thanks to the other format (Commander) spiking card prices. If you want to take advantage of spikes in pricing it is easier to do that playing Standard, if only because the card pool is smaller. People seemed to enjoy my last article. Awesome, lets mush two ideas together so I don't get bored while trying to make use of its ideas.

Lets make a sample, Enchantments Are Coming, MtG portfolio. Looking over the previous article it looks like we are looking for at least 20 cards at roughly the same value. Rather than picking up 20 cards that happen to be selling for the same price lets pick your favorite card from the set. Let me think... that is easily Garruk, Caller of Beasts for me. Lets call Garruk a $15 card and make sure the next 19 enchanting instruments are worth about the same.

Making the Picks

Angelic Accord plays nice with a hot mythic and appeals to casual strategies: life gain and token generation. Let add 38 copies to the fund and put it near equal weight with the jolly green giant.

Adding 37 copies of Barrage of Expendables does the same thing. This card is no where near Goblin Bombardment in terms of power level, but Bombardment has to have fans in Modern and Standard earning its weaker cousin a nod.

Not too sure what to make of Burning Earth. It is probably great in any Standard Red Deck Wins thanks to Shocklands and a mana-starved environment but it will compete with the new Chandra for a spot. I am going to call this a $2 card, as acquiring 8 copies at that price or better seems more reasonable than using tcg's actual low.

Domestication is a reprint and that makes me a little nervous adding it, but it does grab and hold plenty of the Standard four-of finishers. The price is also right. +37

Sanguine Bond is another reprint in M14 I'll be adding. It interacts with the whole gain life thing and has proven to be a popular casual card since its first printing in M10. With new copies as low as 30% of the original price, I am tickled pink to add at least 6.

I don't see a home for Primeval Bounty in Standard, but I'll be adding 3 anyway as it looks like another card with tons of casual appeal. Thankfully it hasn't seen print before and that probably means it gets tested.

Path of Bravery is another (conditional) anthem for white that gains life for its controller. I think it's too cheap now considering the quality of attacking white creatures in Standard. The interaction it has with Archangel of Thune could easily see this to $5 before Theros. Adding 10 at $1.50 while I can.

Some Oldies Too

Moving into RtR, and being a fan of the card for awhile, Deadbridge Chant looks like a solid addition. Playing nice with Scavenging Ooze and Deathrite Shaman is a good thing. +7

While I like Legion's Initiative less than Chant, it is a very unique effect on a relatively cheap anthem. Nearly 50% off of its highs, adding 4 copies at $3.50 adds another cheap and playable mythic to the fund.

Blind Obedience is base-lining. After once commanding a $5 price tag, Imposing Sovereign has helped drive down this 2cc enchant to sub $2 pricing. Can you tell me what this can do that the Sovereign can't? (trigger mythic angel) +8

Underworld Connections should get better with Doom Blade. Drawing cards gets better when Snapcaster and flashback leave Standard. 58 copies for $15 folks. I like the risk/reward on this one. Also, losing life when there is a ton of reasons to play life gain seems better than ok.

Diversifying

I need to add some cards to this fund that bet against control, enchantment and/or life gain. Otherwise I risk finding 20 cards that will fall together as they compete for space in a narrow deck archetype. Bring me 2 play sets of Burning-Tree Emissary and at least that many copies of Young Pyromancer.

Lets also get 2 copies of Scavenging Ooze around $10 a piece (overwieght) with a similarly priced Mutavault (underweight). From the Vault: Slivers could be a thing and the Ooze will find a home in many formats - Steam promo seems like the play.

Do not buy Shadowborn Apostle. Grab them as throw ins at FNM. These things are not quite Relentless Rats, but they have a neat trick attached AND play well with Sphinx of the Chimes. Buy these at bulk where possible. Hoard them. +100

Do what the email says. Opalescence is a card that loves enchantments and while it won't be in Standard unless we see a reprint, it is a great bet when you expect good things to happen to the card type. +10

Lifebane Zombie is a decent play under $5. It has evasion and plucks at hands. It is nuts in today's Standard thanks to a plethora of targets but still hasn't broken out in price. After M13 and with Theros you are still looking at a very playable efficient beater at 3cc. +4

Ring of Three Wishes is not playable outside of Commander. It is good with proliferate, and at $1.50 a pop I'm comfortable adding 7 copies of this new mythic (underweight).

Taking Stock

I hope this run through has been useful and I look forward to running the portfolio against my reader's creations. When constructing your own fund remember to clearly identify your objectives. In this case I want to capitalize on my expectation of an enchantment themed block.

Pick investments that offset each other. Appealing to different archetypes but maintain card type is probably enough. Above, both Sanguine Bond and Barrage of Expendables appeal to combo. Barrage also fits nicely along side Legion's Initiative and Path of Bravery in aggro. A life gain theme is included, as I think this core set demands. I made a straight "enchantments are getting better" bet with Opalescence and could have easily included Ajani's Chosen to capture a similar effect in Standard. Control could finally make use of Underworld Dreams thanks to more removal and the aforementioned life gain.

Of course, you'll noticed I did include stuff outside of the box. If you like something better than the rest, include it! I am not going to let a theme get me away from Shadowborn Apostle, Garruk, everyone's favorite Ooze and Mutavault. I suggest you keep similar company. Your best ideas with the best themed ideas is a fine way to play things.

Insider: Summertime (and the Trading’s Not Easy)

Posted on July 24, 2013January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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The summer is an interesting time to be a trader. Last year’s block, in this case Innistrad, is plummeting in value and will only get lower as rotation approaches. Meanwhile, the current block, Return to Ravnica, has been drafted for a year and the prices for many cards have bottomed out. Even when the core set has sweet cards and an interesting draft format, most players view it as something less than a normal expert expansion, and the cards are undervalued until they are needed for next year’s Standard. This year, Wizards printed Modern Masters, which lowered the price of many Modern cards, but Modern PTQ season is only a few short months in the future.

My point is that there are a whole lot of cards worth acquiring this summer, but what do we trade away? Insiders have been advised for months to get rid of their Innistrad cards, so it’s unlikely you have many of those left to trade out. There are some Return to Ravnica block cards worth trading, but there’s a good chance you’ve already traded those into better holds for next year. And holding Modern Masters cards is largely considered to be correct at this point. So what do you do when you’ve got lots of targets but not enough ammunition?

1. Stop Being a Trader and Start Being a Buyer

This one takes not only cash, but confidence, as investing money into speculations is a much more serious commitment than trading for them. Unless you have a storefront, you can’t always purchase at buylist values, but every once in a while you’ll find someone willing to sell at that level. I almost always jump at these opportunities, as it’s hard to lose when buying in so low.

Going deep on something at retail prices is a much riskier proposition. I generally like to mitigate that risk by purchasing low-cost cards poised for a spike. For example, my buying a bunch of Flinthoof Boars at 18 cents each was a low-risk, high-upside decision that panned out after the release of Gatecrash. In general, buying bulk rares or overpowered uncommons at 25 cents each or less is a very low-risk strategy, as you’re not going to lose much even if they never rise above bulk.

That said, I will buy in at a higher price if I am confident in a spec target. One card that was appealing enough to buy in cash earlier this summer was Jace, Architect of Thought. It had bottomed out to $8-9, saw a lot of play at the Pro Tour, was highly touted by QS Insiders and the Brainstorm Brewery crew, and had a lot of other things going for it. I didn’t have enough time to acquire as many as I wanted in trade, so I used a combination of cash and store credit to establish a position.

2. Accept Smaller Profits on Long-Term Holds

Jace has gone up 50% over what I paid, but I’m pretty confident that if I continue to hold my copies I’ll be able to get 100% gains or more. But what if I like another spec better? It goes against all my instincts, but I have come to realize that it’s okay to trade away cards that are going to see a price bump. I just have to make sure I’m trading for cards that are going to see a larger price bump.

Take Birthing Pod. How this is not a $10 card yet is beyond me. The deck is hugely popular and becoming an ever-increasing part of the Modern metagame. I’m hardly the first one to point this out as a prospect, but I am a firm believer in the spec and trade for every Birthing Pod I see. I can envision a world where Birthing Pod is $15 much easier than a world where Jace is $30. So if I have the chance, it makes sense to trade my Jaces into Birthing Pods.

There may also be times where you’re forced to confront the fact that a spec isn’t going to pan out. Although we all hate admitting we’re wrong, sometimes it’s correct to take a loss on our bad specs and put that money toward something more profitable. It doesn’t feel good to lose money, but it’s better than waiting for a card’s value to sink to almost nothing before finally bulking it out. If a spec isn’t going to work out, I like to cut my losses and move on to the next one.

3. Sit Tight and Wait

This one is simultaneously easy and hard to do. It’s easy because doing nothing requires very little effort. It’s hard, though, because Insiders are not accustomed to just doing nothing. Members of this site are actively looking for trades and purchases at all times, so sitting tight goes against all our instincts.

But sometimes the situation just isn’t right. I’m appropriately deep in my favorite specs right now, and while I might trade for a few more copies if I see them, the time for cash buys is past. There are several other targets I like, but not enough to put dollars into them. I could force the issue and buy in to a spec target about which I’m not fully confident, or I could just wait. Lately, I’ve been choosing the latter.

Sure, I think Armada Wurm and Blood Baron of Vizkopa are fine pick-ups for next year, but I don’t like them as much Birthing Pod or Jace, or any of the shock lands for that matter. I’d rather wait on my currect specs to spike than trade them for lesser targets, and I’d rather save my money for a card in which I am fully confident. There are times when the best action is no action, and that has been the case for me lately.

Application

If you sell cards for a living, sitting on specs might not be an option for you. There is certainly wisdom to Corbin Hosler’s adage about leaving the last 10% for the next guy; it’s not always wise to wait for a price ceiling before selling out. But if you’re speculating as a hobby and are confident in your targets, why sell early?

The next time you start thinking about giving up on a spec or taking a smaller profit, think about why you’re doing it. Did something change in the meta game or did the card get reprinted? Does a change in the banned list impact the card’s viability? If there are good reasons why you think a spec’s future has changed, by all means, out your position. But if you’re just getting antsy to buy in to the next hot target, consider what will truly make you the most money. I have found that sometimes the best action is no action at all.

Jason’s Article: Get Yourself Connected

Posted on July 23, 2013July 22, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Sparklers!

I have been buylisting a lot lately.

Best Job Ever

Buylisting is sometimes described as "labor-intensive," but let's be honest with ourselves. Sitting in a comfortable chair in your naturally-cool-in-the-summer basement sipping on a delicious microbrew or a glass of Port while you click your mouse can never be construed as "labor"--not as long as we live on a planet where children manufacture tennis shoes for two fortune cookies a month.

Buylisting isn't sexy or glamorous but it's the best way I know to turn Hymn to Tourach into 25 cents when you have too many to ever sell on eBay or in a case at a retail store. It's a pretty sweet life but it only requires about 30% of my attention and since I grew up in the digital age of instant gratification, I have been watching TV shows and movies to occupy the portion of my brain not involved in the buylist process.

I made it through a good portion of the good stuff--Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Walking Dead, 6 Feet Under, The Wire, Dexter--and decided to kick it old school this time and rock it '90s style with an HBO classic called "Oz."

Lessons to Learn from Oz

For the uninitiated, "Oz" is a far-fetched drama about an experimental unit inside the fictional "Oswald State Penitentiary" called "Emerald City". The experiment is to see if prisoners grouped together with each race represented an equal amount and given more autonomy will help their rehabilitation.

If that actually worked it would be boring, so people get murdered an awful lot, there are riots and no fewer than two prisoners manage to get ahold of a pistol in the first three seasons alone. Misbehavers are threatened with being exiled from Emerald City back into the general prison population--an odd threat considering how often a main character ends up dead on Oz.

It's a strange watching experience sometimes.

Occasionally a new prisoner will be introduced into Emerald City to replace someone who was pushed down an elevator shaft, got a razorblade in the neck or died by prison boxing match, and they're given a veteran inmate to help them get acclimated. The veteran is of the same race as the new inmate to help introduce them to their peer group, which is useful for protecting affiliated prisoners.

Recently (to me) one of the new prisoners was a guy with an exaggerated Italian accent (which comes across like this) who does not wish to be affiliated with the Italian mobsters who might otherwise protect him from the other gangs in the prison. When asked if it was okay to 'intefere with' (murder by stuffing in a washing machine or stab in the neckmeat, probably) this unaffiliated prisoner, the head of the Italian gang said "I don't give a fuck if he lives or dies." "Wow," I thought, "dude should have just joined the gang."

Hence the Article Title?

Actually, my working title was "Oz Didn't Make You a Bitch" but I liked the other one a lot better.

Connections and How They Help

At a glance, this looks like the kind of box you'd find the Holiday Gift Box coming in. Its unassuming, utilitarian design doesn't give many hints about what could be inside. This certainly doesn't look like the kind of thing people would lose their mind over.

Well, this is what it looks like on the inside. These babies are closing at auction on eBay around $400 and the price is expected to climb. The only way to get these (outside of paying $250-$300 on eBay last week and hoping your order didn't get cancelled like 75% of them did) was to stand in line at San Diego Comic Con this last weekend.

If you were there and braved the lines, you won big. If not, you were forced to pay what the secondary market was charging for these mammer jammers.

Lucky for me, I made some beer money the summer after I graduated college by working for a company called Stylin Online which, despite being a company my friend Adam's cousin and his father started off of a card table at a Flea Market, had grown large enough to sport four separate locations at San Diego Comic Con by 2006.

After working that show, I stayed with the company for a few years and traveled all over the country. Most of my wardrobe comes from them, and if you drop my name when you order, you can be told, "No, saying you know Jason Alt does not entitle you to any sort of discount." but you should check their site out anyway.

Hearing there was cool swag given out only to attendees of Comic Con was the impetus for this article. Since I had connections at Stylin and therefore knew people who were going to San Diego Comic Con, I wondered where else having connections could help, and how we could be conscious of our own connections.

Ultimately, no one going to SDCC and working for Stylin would have time to wait on line long enough to snag one of these sets, but I had a better shot than most since a few people promised to try to buy a set off of an attendee. How else could who you know hook you up, I wondered?

More Good News For a Lucky Few

It's a little more obvious what this is, but right now it's even more of a secret what's inside. One thing we do know is that an old friend is coming to the party, and he's bringing the price of this up when he comes.

It wasn't until I looked at this picture just now for the fifth time that I realized there were some other cards off to the right, there.

So what if the expansion symbol looks like something a WOTC intern phoned in on his last day? So what if Ink Eyes didn't get new art for some reason I'd love to hear explained? Who cares if no one could have predicted this because of what a Ziploc bag of dog turds FTV: Realms was? We're getting Jace, the Mind Sculptor in a set we can go out and buy!

Or can we?

Preorders on FTV: 20 were a very conservative $200 on the secondary market, but the announcement that Jace was included made that number skyrocket. The odds of being able to pay retail on this are laughably low. You'd have to be really good friends with a retailer to pull this off...

Dedicated readers of this column will remember that I sell some of my cards in a case at a local gaming store that doesn't have the time or expertise to sell their own singles. Paying a percentage for the rental is a lot better than paying the overheard to own the store myself and occasionally the owner treats me like a pseudo-employee which has its own perks.

What kind of perks? Being able to buy booster boxes for near cost is one. Being able to order old, out-of-print boxes from his distributor is another. But the most relevant perk to this discussion would be my better-than-the-average-bear ability to get a From the Vault: Twenty at all, and for under MSRP--a price that will never be charged for this set--to boot.

How Likely Are We to Get That Deal?

Okay, so before people start rolling their eyes, let's recap how I got into the situation I'm in. This didn't fall into my lap, after all--it came about because I recognized an opportunity and took the simple step of proposing it. He could easily have said no, after all.

I get a lot of benefits from my symbiotic relationship with my LGS, that's true. That doesn't mean I'm in a unique position by any means. QS' very own Corbin Hosler decided to work a similar deal at an LGS near him, and if you do what I keep saying you should and follow him on Twitter, you'll know he is happy with how it's working out.

Sure, you may not be able to find an LGS that is somehow simultaneously still in business but neglecting singles sales of the most popular card game, but does that mean you can't do anything? Have you ever approached the owner about selling on consignment? Have you ever sold to their buylist, offered to organize an event or brought in new players?

If you're just another player to them (and if you're finance-inclined you might not even buy cards from them) how likely are they to hook you up? Maybe you don't care about your relationship with your LGS owner, but having connections can't hurt, can it?

I'm not saying a good relationship with people who travel to lots of events and with your LGS owner will save you from getting knifed in a prison shower, necessarily. I'm just suggesting it couldn't hurt.

Another GP-less Weekend

Fear not, we doubled down on Star City events this weekend so let's go directly to town. I don't want to spend too much time on this section--today is my anniversary and when I'm done here I'm going to go upstairs and make my wife do something she's been dreading all week.

I meant play EDH, you sick bastards. That's my wife you're talking about!

It's My Article

And I'll cover the SCG Classic in Lansing before the SCG Open if I want to because I'm Boss Hog around here.

SCG Classic Lansing Decklists

James Newman's winning list looks very similar to a deck I've seen out of RIW Hobbies in Livonia, Michigan, except with no red.

Did you pick up Advent of the Wurm when they dipped? Block play seemed to indicate the card would be strong, but when it didn't do much in Standard, it fell off a bit. However, people are brewing with the future in mind, and Advent seems like it could be a player. It's cheap now on TCG Player, and the spread is a laughable 8%. If SCG is willing to pay $4, don't tell me you're not willing to pay $4.35.

Ryan Bushard was at the Classic and watching Newman's and other similar decks perform saw him go deep on Scion of Vitu-Ghazi. Even when Ryan is wrong he still manages to make money, and I think he's onto something here. I love to populate, but Trostani is already way up--Did you buy them at $3 like we said to? Congrats on making $5 a copy--so there is more growth potential in a card like Scion, which worst case scenario is a Cloudgoat Ranger.

Populate Shenanigans will run rampant, and these shenanigans could buoy the Archangel of Thune, a card I didn't really like but which isn't likely to tank as fast as I predicted, and decks which put a lot of tokens into play are one reason why.

I like Ryan Archer's list a little better than the winning list.

It seemed like every single card printed in M14 was the next four-of in Bant Hexproof according to the "experts" on facebook and reddit. However, the deck didn't manage a Top 8 here, and the best-finishing deck, 13th place, didn't run any Witchstalker or any other nonsense offered by M14.

M14 did give us Burning Earth, which just made Jund better and that's annoying. I predicted Burning Earth would hose control more than Manabarbs ever did since it's easier to play around, and my facebook feed was blown up by people asking for Burning Earth. The card is still too cheap at $2. Compare to the price trajectory of Rest in Peace and invest accordingly.

Kalamazoo hero Tristan Woodsmith is still too young to see an R-rated movie but he's crushing on a local level. When he's older and can travel a lot more, expect to see big things from him. His deck is noteworthy mostly because it contains no M14 cards. Go with what you're comfortable with, I guess. Congrats, Tristan.

This list keeps popping up and R/G lists are starting to evolve a bit by adding M14 cards. But there isn't much financial opportunity since decks like this aren't running a ton of new cards beside Garruk, which I recommended you try to pack rather than preorder. It's maintaining its price with some play but doesn't appear to be climbing. Just win some packs and get them that way.

Not too many Kalonian Hydras in the Top 16 here. Not too many at all.

I decided to spend this weekend at home rather than make it up to the Classic, but Ryan assures me he took care of the public's trading needs and I shouldn't worry. He's a good friend like that.

AJ Sacher is My Hero

SCG Open Richmond Top 8

AJ Sacher got there, which makes me happy. He did it jamming a full playset of Xathrid Necromancer, which makes Mike Lannigan happy. Mike has been saying for weeks that this card is the real deal. Did you buy them when they cost nothing? You didn't? Well, they're $8 now; that's Mike vindicated.

Reddit is already in full "Yea, well AJ's opponent in the finals kept a loose seven game three" and all the other bullshit that people blurt out when they can't come to grips with having underestimated a card they never bothered testing. Sure, AJ's opponent kept a loose hand. AJ also beat people all day to make it to the finals.

A whopping five cards from the maindeck are not rotating (4 Necromancer and 1 Orzhov Charm) so it's possible a deck that abuses Necromancer won't come along for a while. If you want to sell out for $8 now, that's probably an okay move. Still, these presold for approximately nothing for a long time and there was plenty of money to be made.

Jund loves Scavenging Ooze. Ooze being a reprint and a promo made it tank, but it's already back up to $20. Naya, Jund and Junk midrange decks are all going to want this guy.

LOL Wut

This deck may be the only deck that wants Imposing Sovereign right now, but Brad Nelson said it was a good card on twitter, and as you know, when Brad Nelson says a card is good, it's at least going to get bought and tested with. $4 seems a safe buy-in, but I'm not personally going to bite.

A whole raft of Bant Hexproof decks finished just outside the Top 16, and the ones that did better were running Gladecover Scout, something the deck was missing. No Witchstalkers in evidence, but the Scouts may be what the deck needs to finally make Top 8.

Esper Control had all it needed before, but I'm sure it won't sneeze at a few Ratchet Bombs. If nothing else, they make you feel less terrible about countering their spells when they have a Voice of Resurgence in play.

Get Off My Lawn!

That's all the news that's fit to print, kids. Join me next week where I'll talk a bit more about being connected. I could even call the article "Underworld Connections." Wouldn't that be neat? Because it's the name of a Magic card, also, but we're talking about connections. It's like naming a site for speculators "Quiet Speculation" because it is a card with "Speculation" in the title.

I was going to use this last paragraph to make fun of Sigmund's article this week where he started putting bullet points at the end he's calling "Sig Bits" but honestly that title is beyond reproach. It sounds just dirty enough.

On that note, I bid you a fond farewell.

Insider: Modern Movement

Posted on July 23, 2013January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers! Today's article will focus on movement we're seeing in regards to Modern cards. Modern Masters hit about a little over a month ago now and it's pretty safe to assume that most of the product that will be opened is already opened. That means that prices on staples should be at or near their low.

The Modern format starts back up soon. Here's a list of the upcoming big Modern events:

GP Detroit (Sept 13-15)
GP Brisbane (Oct 4-6)
GP Antwerp (Oct 25-27)
Pro Tour "Romans" (Winter 2014)

First off, this means there will be an increase in demand for Modern cards within the next few weeks as people prepare for the fall GP season which finalizes into the PT. It also means that now (and quite honestly the past few weeks) is the ideal time to pick up Modern cards before the inevitable spikes start to hit.

Unfortunately for us paper players, the Modern format, while being pushed by WoTC, hasn't taken a foothold in many local stores and hasn't even appeared much on the larger SCG Opens. That means we need to look to our MTGO friends for changes in the Modern format.

What cards are becoming hot right now, which ones are cooling off. What are the strategies that are doing well, which ones are falling by the wayside. Thus, for this week's article I have scoured the MTGO forums in search of references to Modern decks/cards that are doing well on MTGO. (Prices taken from ABUMTGO site.)

Modern Breakouts

Scapeshift

This card is the namesake for its deck, which usually plays Prismatic Omen, Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle, and Scapeshift together to combo-kill an opponent. It has the beauty of being a combo deck that doesn't rely on creatures (like the Kiki/Twin) decks or on the graveyard (like Melira Pod). Thus it negates creature removal for the most part (although most versions do play Primeval Titan.)

Currently paper copies of this card on TCG player are $7-$8 while its MTGO counterpart is close to 22 tickets. While there may be some price differences due to the number of Morningtide packs opened on MTGO, the point is that it has doubled in price within the past month on MTGO but hasn't seen that same spike in its real world counterpart.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence

Linvala hoses the Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker/Splinter Twin combo deck, and is a thorn in the side of plenty of other decks. Currently she's around 21 tix on MTGO but her real life counterpart is closer to $27.

Nettle Sentinel

This card is necessary for any combo elves deck. Coupled with Heritage Druid and a draw engine like Beck // Call, it allows for some insane turns.

While this is only a common, it typically sells for around 10-25 cents in paper, whereas its MTGO counterpart is more like 2.35 tix. I wouldn't suggest going super-deep on this one, but this has always been a good common from an older set, which also sees play in Legacy. Foils go for around $3-4 in real life and 6.35 tix on MTGO.

Celestial Colonnade

This land is a four-of in RUW Control decks that are showing up a lot online (it appears Modern finally has a control deck). The paper counterpart is around $6 whereas the MTGO one is 10.42 tix. The fact that this is a card from Worldwake means the supply is limited, as that set was not opened much.

Restoration Angel

This card has already dropped pretty hard with its pending rotation from Standard. It's used in the Kiki-Pod decks as well as the RUW Control deck. It serves as an excellent combat trick or end-of-turn threat.

Currently paper copies can be picked up in the $7-9 range, whereas the MTGO copies are sitting at 10.52 tix ($10.52). This one could probably be picked up in the $5 range if you trade with Standard-only players, who see its rotation as a death sentence on its value.

Uncommon Staples

The other Modern cards to target are ones which are near their floor or have a strong possibility of jumping in value during the Modern season. Recently my focus has been picking up uncommon Modern staples at buylist prices. Specifically, I've picked up copies of the following cards.

Inquisition of Kozilek

Diet Thoughtseize wasn't available for reprint in MM. The fact that it names a specific character in a specific plane makes it far less likely to see reprint in a Standard set (unless they do a return to Zendikar). This means that outside of reprinting in a specialty set (MM2 or Duel Decks) it will likely continue its rise in value to accommodate demand.

Kitchen Finks

This guy was reprinted in MM, but again the number added to supply wasn't as large as many expected. If you can buy originals in the $3-4 range (buylist) or MM copies in the $2-3 range you should easily be able to make 60%+ profit come Modern season. The only potential wrench in his spike is the printing of Scavenging Ooze, which hoses the Melira style of combo deck pretty hard, given its reliance on persist to go off.

Path to Exile

This is still the premier removal spell of the format. Similar to Kitchen Finks, I'm willing to pick up original and FNM copies in the $3 range ($4 for the FNMs) and MM copies in the $2 range. It's already been reprinted as a FNM promo, in Archenemy, Commander and the Venser vs. Koth duel deck, and still sits in the $5 range.

Remand

This is currently sitting in the $16 range (it's taken over as most expensive uncommon, thanks to Aether Vial's reprint) and is a necessity in Mono-Blue Tron, RUW Control, Scapeshift, and pretty much any blue based Modern deck.

WoTC has admitted it's too powerful for Standard, so its only reprint will be in a specialty product. It's pretty awful in Commander, but I can still see them trying to slide it in there just to add more to the supply.

I still like it as a spec for this Modern season only, but I don't know if I'd buy them for cash at higher than buylist. However, I wouldn't turn down trading for them.

Insider: Hype from SDCC & PAX Australia

Posted on July 22, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Throughout this weekend, Magic players were bombarded with news regarding future products. Most, if not all, of this news came from two primary sources: San Diego Comic Con and PAX Australia. At each panel, Wizards revealed a ton of new spoilers and artwork for upcoming sets From the Vault: Twenty, Theros, and Commander 2013.

Overall, these panels were a billion times sweeter than the panel at PAX East, where some pictures of guild leaders were shown and that’s about it. I have to commend Wizards for turning things around this time. They leaked the perfect amount of information in my opinion. Not so much as to become distracting but not so little that it leaves people wanting for more.

Of course, all these images and spoilers generated a ton of buzz on Twitter in the Magic community. My goal will be to capture some of the headlines and discuss potential financial implications.

SDCC Before the Panel

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention one of the hottest MTG products ever created–-the ultra-rare (and apparently under-printed) black-on-black foil planeswalker set.

At the very beginning of the weekend, I began seeing discussion on how cool this set was and how expensive it may become. I did a couple quick checks and found the set selling for $250. Having no desire to spend this kind of money on five mediocre planeswalkers, I decided to pass. Then the news hit us via QS Insider Blast–-these were sold out for good.

My dreams were crushed. I was truly planning on buying a set at MSRP from Hasbro’s site. Obviously I didn’t think ahead. Fortunately I decided to put emotions aside and pull the trigger on one of the last copies available under $300. Overnight the price skyrocketed.

Holy cow this is a lot for five Standard cards! Of course that's an understatement–-these five cards are unique, exceptionally rare, and in high demand.

No further analysis is really needed here. These are going to stay expensive as long as more sets aren’t printed. I can’t blame you for skipping this investment based on cost, but I can virtually guarantee that if you bought a set at $250 you will have an opportunity to profit.

From the Vault: Twenty

Clearly the headline here is the new artwork for Impulse, right? I mean, that old woman looks like she knows what she’s doing, and Impulse is such a powerful Legacy card.

I can see this card dropping in value because of the reprint and–-oh, wait a second... You don’t care about Impulse, do you? Of course you don’t. You care about this reprint:

That’s right, Jace, the Mind Sculptor is finally seeing a reprint. This seemed fairly inevitable, really. The card had been appreciating in price significantly ever since it bottomed out post-Standard rotation. Jace is an iconic piece now, representing powerful blue mage-ness. Perhaps that’s why he retails for $150, with NM foil copies retailing at $800!

There’s much debate out there around how this reprint impacts Jace’s future price trajectory. Will the price decrease due to higher supply? Will his price increase, much like how Modern Masters impacted Tarmogoyf?

I can’t give you a definitive answer, of course. But I can speculate like the rest of us…hopefully with a little bit of data as support. For instance, I did a quick search on mtg.gg for buy prices on Jace 2.0, and it shows SCG buying at $80.

But then I navigated to the actual SCG buylist page, and this is what I see:

The discrepancy indicates that SCG dropped their buy price by $20 recently–-as in, probably right after the card was spoiled in FTV: 20. Their sale price of course hasn’t been reduced yet–-that will take a while. But the fact that SCG is buying far less aggressively indicates they anticipate a price drop of some sort. I’m inclined to agree.

As for foils, it’s not as easy to predict future price movement. Set foils always seem to sell for higher prices than promotional foils unless alternate artwork is used. I’d suspect a pullback of sorts, but I won’t try to estimate what percentage drop we can expect. It will depend on the availability of FTV: 20 in general. All I can say is this set is going to sell no where close to MSRP. Expect these to sell for at least double what previous FTV sets have sold for in the past.

Between the SDCC set and FTV: 20, people are going to be spending a boatload of cash on Magic cards.

Theros News and Speculation Opportunities

A load of new information is available for Theros block. Something about gods, heroes, and beasts. Oh, and also there are these weird Vanguard-like cards that can impact a game from the start. I don’t know if these are only for Prerelease / Release events, but they seem pretty neat. One day they may even have value depending on quantities and success.

But what I really want to focus on this week is the news that Theros will have a significant enchantment theme, one that apparently goes beyond “enchantments matter”. Enchantments will feature prominently in the set, contributing to the feel of an environment about Greek gods and heroes.

What this exactly means is fairly unclear. But we can perhaps begin speculating on other enchantment-related cards (assuming we have any cash left after buying fancy planeswalkers and FTV: 20). A QS Insider Blast was sent out on this topic, and there’s already been a ton of discussion on the forms and on Twitter. By looking at each format individually, I’ll summarize some of my favorite ideas.

As the Insider Blast indicated, my favorite choice overall is Serra's Sanctum. The card has an obvious connection to enchantments, it is fringe Legacy playable, it is powerful in any enchantment-heavy EDH deck playing white, and it just got better thanks to the changes in the legend rule.

All these arguments combined with the fact that Gaea's Cradle is upwards of $100 and I am readily convinced this card has dramatic upside and limited downside.

Sure, this does nothing for Standard players. But the minimal risk (seriously, this card isn’t really going down ever and it’s on the Reserved List) and significant upside makes this card a no-brainer investment. I cannot guarantee you’ll be able to sell these for twice what you paid in a week. This isn’t that kind of spec. Instead, consider this one of those investments with low risk, high reward prospects–-my favorite type!

Want a Standard idea? Once again, Twitter came through.

I really like Ryan’s idea here. It involves greater risk, but the price on Mana Bloom is already so low that downside is limited. We lose Farseek with Standard rotating, and if we want to cast all sorts of gods and beasts and heroes in Theros, we’re going to need some ramp spells. What better fit than an enchantment ramp spell? I snap-bought two sets on eBay after seeing this Tweet and I would recommend getting these as throw-ins whenever possible.

One last idea with focus on Modern and EDH players alike–-Idyllic Tutor.

Honestly, I wish this was an instant. Still, if amazing enchantments are going to be printed then this tutor will certainly become stronger. Although it’s not on the Reserved List, I also see limited downside on this card. It has been creeping up over the past year and this trend was likely to continue regardless of Theros. An enchantment-heavy block is just icing on the cake for this speculative play.

So Much Money

Ok, so you’ve purchased an SDCC Planeswalker set at $250, a FTV: 20 set at $200, and a set each of Serra's Sanctum and Idyllic Tutor, right? Perhaps not-–-this is becoming an expensive hobby to invest in! I recently transferred some of my MTG funds into a brokerage account for some “RL Investing”. Now I find myself wanting for additional funds for all these investment opportunities.

If you find yourself in a similar place, strapped for cash, I’d suggest a focused strategy on the investment you like best. If you are all in on planeswalkers, then there’s no need to also buy ten FTV: 20 sets. Try and think about what investment will give you the largest return with lowest risk and prioritize accordingly.

That’s the best advice I can offer at this time, and that’s why I purchased one planeswalker set and then a few copies of Serra's Sanctum, all the while sitting on all my booster boxes and shocklands. Diversification, return maximization, and risk minimization is how I approach this hobby so I make investment decisions accordingly.

…

Sigbits

Want to out your Jace, the Mind Sculptors? May I suggest buylisting them to Card Kingdom or Cape Fear Games, both of which are still paying $100 according to mtg.gg? Honestly I don’t see any vendor offering a higher price in the near term, so it may not be a bad idea. Selling these to free up cash for new investments could yield you better returns while locking in some nice profits.
Troll and Toad continuously pays the highest buy price on Modern Masters Tarmogoyf. They seem to update their price daily, and I’ve seen prices range from $93 up to $108 (where it’s at now). I’ve noticed plenty of copies selling on eBay in the upper part of this range–-could be an interesting arbitrage opportunity, but personally I am not a buyer of these at $110.
So apparently Bloom Tender is a $6 card at retail and buylists over $3 according to mtg.gg. Foils are retailing for $14.99! I know it’s random, but I had no idea this card was so valuable. I thought I’d share this tidbit in case you didn’t know either. May be worth grabbing a few of these on the cheap if you come across any, since these are casual gems.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Fall Rotation

Posted on July 19, 2013January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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The Early Outlook For Fall Rotation

Predicting the nature of Fall Standard after Innistrad (ISD) block and M13 rotate out is difficult. Although we have good data on what Return to Ravnica (RTR) Block Constructed looks like, typically this only mildly informs us about the future metagame in Standard. The cards leaving Standard are too many and the incoming cards in Theros are completely unknown.

We do have a little information, so it’s not too early to start considering what it might mean for speculators. In particular, with Cube draft followed by M14 release events, the next couple of weeks are the last window to pick up cards from RTR block at low prices. Looking out for currently underused cards that might benefit from a different Standard metagame is a solid technique in the hunt for value.

What Do We Know

A recent Sam Stoddard article on the mother ship talked about Standard mana bases and how easy it is to play three colour-decks currently. A quick look at the Standard metagame page on MTGGoldfish confirms this. Note that this data includes all published decks that finish 3-1 or better in recent Daily Events (DEs) or Premier Events (PEs). Although currently R/G Aggro is the most played deck at close to 20% of the Standard field, over 50% of decks are solidly three-colour builds.

Stoddard also alluded to a new cycle of mana fixing lands to come in Theros, though details were not revealed. Reading between the lines it’s probable that mana fixing will become costlier than it is currently. Perhaps there will be a return to tribal-themed lands, echoing the tribal plants of M14. A cycle of tribal lands would make decks that want to be multiple colours narrower, making it harder to just jam the best cards into a deck.

Without the mana fixing provided by the check lands of M13 and Innistrad, the plethora of three-colour decks currently in Standard appears to be on the way out. The inclusion of Mutavault in M14, a card that strengthens mono-colour decks, also suggests that the pendulum is swinging away from decks with robust mana bases.

Impact on Current Cards

In a Standard where it’s harder to cast colour-intensive spells, decks will have to be choosier about which cards to include. The relative utility of the following cards will change in a Standard with less robust mana.

Boros Reckoner

The medium term outlook for this minotaur wizard is somewhat negative. Currently it shows up in close to 30% of Standard decks, and nearly 40% of Block Constructed decks. This level of playability being maintained in Fall Standard seems unlikely. Also, Blasphemous Act will be rotating out of Standard, further reducing the utility of this card.

On the plus side, red aggro decks usually come out to play right away in Fall Standard. If the Greco-Roman themed Theros features minotaurs as a tribe, this would be a positive as well. Demand for this card might peak in October.

Outlook: Overall I am still bullish on this card in the short term, but cautious when getting closer to rotation. I bought it heavily at the peak of triple Gatecrash (GTC) drafting and still expect it to yield a solid profit. However, it’s possible that the short-term price peak occurs just prior to rotation. If this bumps up into the 8-10 tix range, I will not hesitate to take some profits by reducing my position.

Voice of Resurgence

The priciest card from Dragon’s Maze (DGM) has been holding at 40+ tix since the end of May. It’s also the 8^th most played creature in Standard at the moment, appearing in a little over 23% of decks. This mythic rare shows up in Bant Hexproof, Bant Control, and Junk Aristocrats decks. These decks don’t need this card per se, but it’s a resilient and efficient two-drop so if your mana base can support this card you put it in your deck.

Historically, a 3^rd set mythic rare ends up being the most expensive card in Standard on MTGO. Jace, The Mind Sculptor (from honorary 3^rd set Worldwake), Sword of War and Peace (New Phyrexia) and Bonfire of the Damned (Avacyn Restored) have all carried the mantle of most expensive card in Standard.

Of these, only Jace has gone from 40+ tix to 50+ tix after Fall rotation though. Sword of War and Peace took a run at 50+ tix at the height of Delver’s dominance in Scars of Mirrodin – Innistrad Standard, but couldn’t sustain that high a price.

Outlook: This card has very little upside at current prices. I have a play set at the moment and that’s it. Stay away from speculating on this card at 40+ tix; it rarely turns out to be profitable to speculate on a high-priced card that is not an all-format staple.

Temple Garden

Due to the uncertainty of what the Fall Standard metagame will look like, it’s good to be diversified across all the Ravnica shocklands. It’s generally anticipated that all the shocklands will rise on average, but a uniform increase would be unlikely. The G/W shockland currently appears in an astounding 61% of decks.

Outlook: I’ve still built up a decent position in these, but as with Boros Reckoner, if a September price increase occurs I will not be afraid to sell down my copies. Maintaining the current level of usage seems unlikely.

Gyre Sage

This card saw a lot of hype and usage early into Gatecrash Standard, but that has fallen off significantly. The price floor appears to be around 0.3 tix, and currently it’s priced at 0.47 tix.

This is the type of card that I like to take a position in, i.e. one that is out of favor. It’s possible the R/G mages also just pencil this in instead of Flinthoof Boar for Fall Standard, though Scavenging Ooze will be a strong contender for the 2cc slot of base green decks .

Outlook: This card has the potential to become more widely adopted in a popular archetype as a four-of. A recent precedent might be something like Stromkirk Noble. I’m a buyer at less than 0.75 tix.

Summing Up

There are other cards that might be good cards to speculate on, but there are still some shocklands available for 3 tix or less. MTGO speculators should definitely start with the shocklands and build from there. The Ravnica – Theros – M14 metagame is largely unformed at the moment, but we know for sure that shocklands will be required.

Insider: Digging out of Dragon’s Maze

Posted on July 18, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Time to look back at Dragon’s Maze. I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that I hit some of the right notes in my initial set review, but the bad news is I completed missed on one card in particular.

This set does have one important aspect I didn’t take into account while reviewing it, which is the impact of Modern Masters. Because Modern Masters came out just weeks after the Maze it cut significantly into the drafting of the set. And because it was already a third set that was destined to be opened just a little, it was instead basically not opened at all.

That’s a recipe for cards to do nothing but get expensive and go up over time. That’s both an opportunity for us as well as a factor that will increase the price of those Voices you need to play.

Let’s find out what’s what.

Blood Baron of Vizkopa

Then:

“At a $12 preorder on Star City Games, there’s not much to like here. I think the card is powerful, of course, and it will likely compete with Obzedat for that 5-drop spot once Thragtusk rotates. I have no idea right now which of those will win out, so there may be an opportunity down the line, but it’s certainly coming down from $12.

If this does reach near-bulk status I like picking it up because it’s a powerful vampire at the mythic rarity. That’s good for its long-term prices.”

Now: $8 on SCG. The card was as powerful as I thought, and the large amount of play it saw at the Block Pro Tour kept its price from going too low. That said, I routinely see dealers pay $5 on these, which is already a good margin. Combine that with the fact it’s a mythic and I think this is a good place to park some equity in for the next few months.

Deadbridge Chant

Then:

“This is, by far, the card I most like at its $4 preorder price, for a few reasons.

Firstly, Standard. This card provides so much value I can see it immediately becoming a two-of in Jund decks. That may not do much to its price, but it doesn’t exactly have far to drop either. Secondly, Block and/or Standard decks that start with four Abrupt Decay, four Putrefy and some number of Vraska the Unseen/Chant are probably a thing.

And on top of that, it’s a very solid Commander card for any reanimator deck or simply one that likes value. With all of that in mind, I highly suggest picking this up at your prerelease this weekend.”

Now: $2.50 on SCG. What that doesn’t tell you, though, is that this card jumped to $8-10 a week or two after the release, and I advocated selling them then. I made good money off of this card, and I hope you did as well.

Legions Initiative

Then:

“No way this stays $12. Even if its played I don’t think it will be played a ton, so something like $3-4 seems more right in a few months.”

Now: $4 on SCG. Yup, I thought this was an easy call, but there was some hype back when the set came out.

Ral Zarek

Then:

“I’m sure this surprises no one, but this card is insanely overpriced at $35. It’s hard to imagine common scenarios where the first ability is something you actively look for, and while the second ability is really good and people obviously want to take extra turns, I’m just not sure that translates into a lot of Standard play.

The guy obviously does have a following though, so I expect Ral to end up at something like $8-12 four to six months down the line. And I expect Jace, Architect of Thought to be the 4-drop planeswalker of choice and rise in price accordingly from the $10 it’s at right now.”

Now: $13 on SCG, and well on its way to the $8-12 in six months that I predicted. Likewise, Jace hit $20 on SCG for awhile, and is now $13 both on SCG and TCGPlayer, indicating that it will continue to rise.

Savageborn Hydra

Then:

“When I first saw this card, I got excited about its casual potential down the line, à la Primordial Hydra. Then I saw it’s $8, which I think is absurd because the card is unlikely to see any real competitive play, at least before next year.

Let this drop down to near-bulk and scoop them up then.”

Now: $3. It’s probably safe to pick these up now as I suggested. And, while I don’t expect a huge upside, it’s sure to rise since that’s what all mythic hydras seem to do.

Voice of Resurgence

Then:

"This is one of the cards people are really divided over. Some think it’s the best thing ever while others are pretty 'meh' about it and its $20 preorder price.

I’m somewhere in between. I think the card is solid but don’t see it going nuts any time soon, and leaving behind a 1/1 isn’t exactly the best Wrath defense we’ve ever seen.

In summation, then, $6-9 card."

Now: $50 on SCG. I blew this one pretty badly, though there were a couple factors I didn’t see coming. Namely, the Modern Masters impact and the fact that Voice would go on to win the Pro Tour and a Modern Grand Prix.

That’s a lot of factors that conspire to keep a card expensive, and while it will likely behave similarly to Bonfire of the Damned and come down quite a bit by this time next year, that doesn’t change the fact I missed the call on this one.

Aetherling

Then:

“I’m addressing this one (preselling at $6) because I’ve heard a few people say it’s going to be the next big control finisher. Personally, I don’t see that at all. In order to protect it you have to play it at seven mana, and then attack with it at least five turns in a row to win.

That’s too much for my tastes when the alternatives have a larger impact on the board. As such, I don’t really see much hope for this card, and I think it’s $2-4 down the line.”

Now: $5 on SCG. I undersold the card at first, and I actually think it’s way better than I initially gave it credit for. That said, the price has behaved to this point more or less as I thought it would.

Now, after seeing M14 and the way the format seems to look post-rotation, I like picking up the new Morphling as I think it will hit $8-10 after rotation.

Notion Thief

Then:

“This is the Dragon’s Maze card most akin to Boros Reckoner in my opinion.

What I mean by that is it could see a large spike the first week or two it’s out because I’m pretty sure this will be big against the Sphinx’s Revelation decks. Obviously we all know this, but people jamming this in the first week could easily spike it to $10+ from its current $6. I wouldn’t expect it to stay there though; chances are it comes back down to $5 or so.”

Now: $1.50 on SCG. The card did see some play out of the gates before settling down, but the biggest reason why the price has moved has nothing to do with Notion Thief itself. Rather, it’s Voice of Resurgence and the aggro decks making Revelation mirrors less common, therefore less sideboard slots are needed to combat it.

This could change after rotation, and at a buck fifty it’s hard to lose. That said, I doubt the upside is all that high.

Sire of Insanity

Then:

"This is already up to $3 from a buck, but I don’t even hate trading for it at that $2-3 price point this weekend. A solid showing next weekend spikes this to $5+, and you’ll have no problem outing them at that time for a nice double-up.

I don’t see it ever being a four-of, though, so it will likely settle to $3-5 even if it does see play, and more like $1-2 if it doesn’t.”

Now: $2 on SCG. This is another card that spiked from its initial price point before coming back down as expected.

The Grade

Overall, I feel bad about missing so hard on Voice but I feel pretty satisfied with how I called the rest of the set. As I’ve said before, I’d rather miss out on a card going up than tell you to invest in Ral Zarek at $35 and have it plummet, so I guess I screwed up in the best possible way.

But that’s why we do these set reviews, to learn from our mistakes and adjust moving forward. For instance, the Modern Masters thing had way more of an effect that I planned for, and it’s a good lesson to learn the next time something like this comes around.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

M14 Standard Prepwork

Posted on July 18, 2013July 19, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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Mutavault is coming for you!

In my Top 10 review of M14 last week, I stated that Mutavault was the best card in M14. That fact was solidified for me over the last week. Between my own brief testing, articles from other writers and testing videos, I can assure you we'll see lots of Mutavault through the next year.

The mana in Standard is good enough right now to support colorless lands. Now you need to decide if you should be playing a man land or a utility land. There are some decks that still want Kessig Wolf Run or Gavony Township, but many would rather have another threat.

Another underrepresented quality of Mutavault is its synergy with tribal decks. Its a strong reason to explore all available tribes in the upcoming months before Theros.

The other topic that has been hot on Twitter this past week is how much Mutavault will cost you to purchase if you are interested in picking them up. The current price for the land is set at $14-15, but where will it go from there?

It is my opinion that this is the lowest it will be. Sure, in a month it may be a couple dollars less than that, but I think this is the bottom for the rare. Either way, investing in your copies now is a solid plan. If the card hits $20+ in the fall, you can't complain about it anymore though. Even if it dips in the short term, your investment is solid long-term. As for me, I will get my set quickly and maybe an extra one for later.

Key New Decks

There are some important new decks you'll want to be aware of for any Standard event you attend in the near future. M14 brings a lot of brand new playable cards to the format.

Although many of the cards provide updates to current strategies, some of them give new dimensions to the deck and some are powerful and interesting enough to build new decks around.

The most obvious updates are to Jund Midrange and Bant Hexproof. Scavenging Ooze, Witchstalker and Gladecover Scout are all solid cards worth considering in those two decks respectively. I expect both of those decks to see a considerable amount of play so watch out for them.

For the most part, they will just be better versions of the same powerful decks. Neither of these decks are adding any broken cards, rather they are becoming more resilient and consistent. If your deck was weak to either of these decks before, it will be worse now.

Building with Necromancer

Even with preexisting decks getting sweet updates, there are a couple potent new strategies you need to be aware of. The first card you will run into is none other than my favorite card in the set!

Let me tell you, this card is way better than people are giving it credit for. While Pillar of Flame is a one-card answer, your opponent won't be able to send their killing flames at all of your creatures. In this case, costing three mana is a benefit because of when it comes down in your curve.

Think about it this way. What if all of your creatures could be better Doomed Travelers? Now think about Doomed Traveler with Xathrid Necromancer. That's right, not only do you get the 1/1 as normal, you also get a 2/2! When you have two Necromancers, the effect stacks leaving your opponent with very few ways to win the game.

Take a look at what a normal B/W Humans deck might look like utilizing the new Rotlung Reanimator.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish

4 Doomed Traveler

4 Cartel Aristocrat

3 Imposing Sovereign

4 Blood Artist

4 Xathrid Necromancer

Spells

4 Tragic Slip

4 Gather the Townsfolk

3 Lingering Souls

3 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Lands

4 Godless Shrine

4 Isolated Chapel

4 Cavern of Souls

4 Mutavault

5 Plains

2 Swamp

What I like about this deck is that it's full of powerful synergy. What I'm unsure of is whether or not this deck is better than Junk Aristocrats. The two are quite similar in terms of how they play, but which is better? Only time, testing, and tournaments will provide our answer.

Another part of the deck I don't like is the lack of sacrifice outlets. There really are not good options for this part of the strategy in either black or white. Either they are not powerful enough (Bloodthrone Vampire), or they cost too much (Maw of the Obzedat). We could branch out into another color but most players would find that too risky.

Overhyped Hydras?

The next card to consider is the most-talked-about card in the set.

You cannot argue that this card offers an unparalleled power level if allowed to live. Some strategies may just fold when their opponent casts this monster. My question has been, will it survive? Statistically, there will be times the hydra is allowed to attack, but I wonder how often that will be.

As a side note, its nice to finally see Wizards print a hydra creature that truly exemplifies the power of the mythical beast.

The best way to ensure the hydra gets to attack is to give it haste. There are actually quite a bit of options that fill this role. Here is the list: Lightning Mauler, Hellraiser Goblin, Fervor, Ogre Battledriver and Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch.

Some of these options are better than others. Take a look at one possible build.

New Fires
by Adam Yurchick

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Arbor Elf

4 Elvish Mystic

4 Strangleroot Geist

4 Lightning Mauler

4 Predator Ooze

1 Yeva, Nature's Herald

3 Ogre Battledriver

4 Kalonian Hydra

2 Wolfir Silverheart

Spells

4 Domri Rade

2 Garruk, Caller of Beasts

Lands

4 Rootbound Crag

4 Stomping Ground

3 Gruul Guildgate

1 Kessig Wolf Run

9 Forest

3 Mountain

This is one of the deck ideas I have been working on, but Adam had made much more progress over at tcgplayer.com than I had. Other than the name, I didn't change anything about the deck.

If this is a strategy you are interested in exploring, make sure to check out his thorough article on the deck and the process of how he got to this list. To sum it up, hydra with haste is sick. If you are on the opposing side of the match, make sure to save your removal for that one specific card otherwise your defeat will be quick.

It is uncertain to me whether this version is good enough to succeed, but the theory is solid. This is at the very least a great starting point for the strategy.

Deck in Progress

For my next number, I have something brand new up my sleeve. I thought that I wouldn't be the only one trying to do something broken with the new M14 cards, but I haven't seen any other authors talking about this concept yet. There have been a small number of decks, like the one above, which have included the new card in question, but many fewer than I anticipated. The card?

That's right, one of the new hyped planeswalkers! New Garruk seems so amazing to me that I can't understand why more writers aren't brewing with him. Yes he costs six mana, but he certainly packs a punch.

I like him quite a bit in the Fires deck to refuel your hand, but my mission has been to break that second ability. Take a look at my current idea on how to do just that.

G/R Ramp

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

4 Arbor Elf

4 Elvish Visionary

4 Elvish Archdruid

4 Huntmaster of the Fells

3 Borderland Ranger

3 Thragtusk

3 Craterhoof Behemoth

Spells

3 Bonfire of the Damned

4 Garruk, Caller of Beasts

Lands

4 Rootbound Crag

4 Stomping Ground

3 Gruul Guildgate

1 Kessig Wolf Run

9 Forest

3 Mountain

This combo-esque midrange aggro deck is a work in progress, but hopefully it will get the gears turning for you. If you have any suggestions for the deck, post in the comments.

The general idea is to use your sick mana generation capabilities to ramp out a Garruk or Craterhoof. You can also use that pile of mana to Bonfire your opponent to death. It is fully possible that a combination of this G/R Ramp deck and the Fires deck above should be considered as well. The point is, we have just the right number of elves to ramp quickly into something.

The final deck I want to share with you today is my current pet project. As I have said a million times, Xathrid Necromancer is my favorite new card. It is so much fun to play with and it reminds me of when I first started playing back in Onslaught.

Above, when I talked about B/W Humans, I identified some weaknesses with the strategy. My main problem was there is only one sac outlet if you stick to two colors. When I think about playing that deck, I want to be able to sac all my creatures and kill my opponent. I want my Blood Artist to turn into a Fireball! This is my crazy attempt to do so.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish

4 Doomed Traveler

4 Cartel Aristocrat

4 Blood Artist

2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

2 Skirsdag High Priest

4 Fiend Hunter

4 Xathrid Necromancer

4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

Spells

4 Tragic Slip

Land

4 Godless Shrine

4 Blood Crypt

4 Isolated Chapel

2 Dragonskull Summit

4 Cavern of Souls

4 Mutavault

2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Doom Blade

2 Curse of Death's Hold

1 Pithing Needle

3 Devour Flesh

2 Liliana of the Veil

2 Obzedat, Ghost Council

2 Appetite for Brains

2 Sin Collector

The first thing you should notice is that either I am completely nuts for running that mana base or I'm a genius. Normally I wouldn't be so arrogant, but I put a ton of effort and time into designing this three-color mana base that can support the format's best new land.

I'm here to tell you that it is just as consistent as any other three color deck in the format! With Cavern of Souls, it actually may be a little bit better. Cavern naming either human or vampire is all you need most of the time to smooth out your draw.

Fiend Hunter did not originally start in the deck. Well, he did, but I was using him as a proxy for Banisher Priest. As it turns out, you can't do the trick of sacrifice the Banisher Priest with his trigger on the stack to permanently remove a creature from the game. This is an interaction that comes up often enough because with your eight sac outlets as well as Necromancer to give you a creature anyway, this trick gets you out of many sticky situations.

For now, I am trying Fiend Hunter because he is synergistic with the deck as well as a removal spell. It's possible that this aggro deck doesn't need a 1/3 to fill this role though. When your opponent taps out for anything other than a Thragtusk, this is a great way to negate their whole turn and keep getting damage in.

This deck has so many intricacies that every game is like finding a new way the deck can win. Here are the main ways.

First you have the crazy two or three Champion of the Parish aggro draws that just beat some opponents before they can get set up. Second, you have the ability to combo and make a 5/5 flyer on turn three. After that there are the double Necromancer draws where you can just sac your board to make more 2/2s than your opponent can block to survive.

Finally, with Blood Artist and Necromancer, you usually only need to do about ten damage to your opponent before you can sacrifice your board to kill them. Don't forget that all of your humans give +1/+1 counters to your Falkenrath too. Sometimes, just sacrificing your board to make a huge flying vampire is all you need to win.

Sideboarding

As for the sideboard, although it may seem all over the place, there is a plan for every card. My focus was on three particular matchups. I wanted a bunch of cards to bring in against Jund that would fill diverse rolls. Here's what I plan to bring in for that matchup as well as most control matchups.

1 Pithing Needle
2 Obzedat, Ghost Council
2 Appetite for Brains
2 Sin Collector

Since I believe that Bant Hexproof was the deck that improved the most with M14, I wanted a plethora of removal that would actually work against them as well. It's possible that I even want a few more cards for that match. I think the cards are obvious for that match but here they are.

3 Devour Flesh
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Curse of Death's Hold (if needed)

The main reason the Curse of Death's Hold are in the board is for the mirror and most other aggro decks. The Doom Blade is applicable in many matches and could change to something else if needed. I really just wanted another answer to Kalonian Hydra, in case that is an issue.

Now, consider yourself prepared for the new Standard environment, or as prepared as you can be. Feel free to comment on this or other decks below!

Until Next Time,

Unleash the M14 Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

A Junky Foray into Modern

Posted on July 17, 2013July 16, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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Back in college I used to build a ton of decks. Many of them were lists that I spent a good amount of time tuning, but a great deal of them were last minute FNM piles. The deck building process for this tended to consist of asking Jens Erickson if he had a laundry list of cards and working around the "no"s. Last Tuesday I took a little trip to nostalgia town when I threw a last minute deck together for a local four round Modern event.

Hawthorne sent me a text in the late afternoon asking if I wanted to hit the weekly Modern event at Hi-Score. Not having a deck I wasn't too enthused, but Dana Kinsella offered his collection from which to build. He had a an extra Twin deck mostly together, but I'm not generally one to play combo decks with cards that function strictly as combo pieces. Dana had an 800 card box full of "playables" that Hawthorne and I began rifling through in search of ideas.

Initially I got a little excited about trying to make something with Fauna Shaman and Vengvine work, and I even had some Grisly Salvage and Demigod of Revenge set aside to go real deep, but the more I looked at the pile the less excited I got. The Shriekmaws I had sitting out told me that I was playing a pretty non-interactive, pretty fair deck and I decided to go a different direction. Not to mention that the pile of four and fives I was assembling made it pretty difficult to jam Dark Confidant, and there's no way that he's not just immensely better than Fauna Shaman. I had also hoped that deciding on Bob would get Hawthorne to stop suggesting that I play Deus of Calamity so aggressively, but I had no such luck on that front.

The dual lands available pretty much left me with the option of playing straight GB, Jund or Junk. The third color is basically free, so the question become Huntmaster of the Fells and Lightning Bolt versus Path to Exile and Lingering Souls. One of these sets plays considerably better against Griselbrands and Wurmcoil Engines, so I went with Junk.

From there I more or less just jammed all of the good cards into a pile and called it a deck. Discard, Abrupt Decay, Kitchen Finks, Tarmogoyf, Deathrite Shaman... All the hits. I really had no idea how to build a sideboard, but I assumed that additional removal would be good- particularly Go for the Throat to combat Spellskite out of Twin. I also figured that some graveyard hate and a random Wurmcoil Engine would likely carry their weight. I had heard there was a pretty sweet Goryo's Vengeance deck on the rise so I wanted to jam four Leyline of the Void on my sideboard but Hawthorne convinced me to run the Jason Ford special instead. That means one copy of Leyline and maybe other graveyard hate. Looking back, considering the Bobs playing more than one Leyline is probably wrong and the misers copy is realistically more for rub-ins than anything else. The end product was slightly rushed as much of my time was spent chastising Dana to the tune of "Where is/you don't have card x?!" and an even greater amount of time was spent removing at least one copy of Deus of Calamity from literally every pile of cards that Hawthorne touched. I ended up sleeving up this, er... finely tuned machine:

All the Junk

spells

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Deathrite Shaman

3 Dark Confidant

1 Elvish Visionary

4 Kitchen Finks

2 Lingering Souls

3 Inquisition of Kozilek

3 Thoughtseize

4 Path to Exile

3 Abrupt Decay

2 Maelstrom Pulse

2 Liliana of the Veil

lands

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Verdant Catacombs

4 Marsh Flats

1 Forest

2 Godless Shrine

1 Temple Garden

4 Overgrown Tomb

4 Woodland Cemetery

1 Murmuring Bosk

sideboard

1 Leyline of the Void

2 Surgical Extraction

2 Go for the Throat

1 Wurmcoil Engine

4 Fulminator Mage

1 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Back to Nature

2 Other Cards

First things first, Dana only had three Bobs and I have an unhealthy obsession with Elvish Visionary. The card has absolute zero place in this deck but it was my favorite spell to cast all night. I simply adore putting Visionary on the stack and stone-facing my opponents as if they're supposed to want to counter it. The second glaring omission is basic Swamp and likely a second Forest. I was rather belligerent about basics as I've been playing a lot more Legacy than Modern lately and I kind of forgot about the fact that I got to Lava Axe myself every time I wanted to cast Thoughtseize on turn one. Whoops. The Murmuring Bosk sucked, the Woodland Cemetery were unnecessary and I definitely wanted some number of Treetop Village. Other than that the deck actually felt pretty solid. I don't recall the remaining sideboard cards but I'm pretty sure they were just some kind of removal. Onto the battles!

Round 1 Versus... Dragon Stompy?

My opponent won the roll and led on Mountain Chalice of the Void for zero. To my knowledge this stops Memnite, Mox Opal various Pacts, or my own Chalice of the Void/Engineered Explosives for zero... It takes all kinds to make local game stores operate. I cast a discard spell on him for my turn expecting to see a Blood Moon effect but instead I saw four and a Desperate Ritual. This didn't bode well for the one-basic land deck. I ended up losing the first game but winning the match on the back of aggressively fetching Forest and drawing an early, unanswered Deathrite Shaman in both sideboarded games. Basic lands? Who needs 'em!

Round 2 Versus Goryo's Vengeance Combo

What this deck does is try to set up either a Griselbrand into chaining Fury of the Hoards or just a cheaty Emrakul, the Aeons Torn to annihilate its opponents. Against me it mulls to five in game one and I mise my Leyline of the Void in my opener in game two. Yes. It is nice.

I'm going to make the argument that Goryo's Vengeance Combo is probably the strongest game one deck in the format. Deathrite Shaman disrupts it fairly well but it also has Through the Breach or just double Vengeance to beat Shaman and the deck is extremely consistent. It's pretty easily disrupted if you're ready for it post-board, but it's capable of winning turn one unfettered. I would not be the least bit surprised to see something from the deck banned if WotC continues with the same Modern philosophy it has held to this point.

Round 3 Versus Blue Tron

I really don't know how I won game one of this match. I was playing against Forrest Ryan and he both Mindslavered, Oblivion Stoned me and activated a Karn Liberated three times. Outside of that his draws were pretty unspectacular. In game two I demolished him pretty handily with Fulminator Mage, Liliana of the Veil and other cards.

Blue tron is a bit more interactive than RG Tron on account of having access to Counterspells but I'm inclined to believe that GR Tron is just the stronger deck. It fetches out Tron far more consistently which makes it more explosive, and I think you either have to be extremely interactive or pretty explosive to make it in this format. Blue Tron really only meets both of these goals halfway.

Round 4 Versus Goryo's Vengeance Combo

I mise another game one off the back of discard and Deathrite Shaman and once again my Leyline was in my opener for game two. My opponent actually had to get pretty unlucky to lose game two as he had a Through the Breach in hand at the end of the game and just needed to dig for either fatty for a likely win. And that's how you turn $5 into 8 packs or something.

Going Forward

I was actually surprised at how much I enjoyed playing this deck, even if it was only for a few short rounds I would definitely consider taking a closer look at Junk for future events. Outside of the notes mentioned above the only thing I would look at changing is making Tarmogoyf into something else. It was often just a 3/4 and it tended to not play very good ball with Deathrite Shaman. With Scavenging Ooze now being legal in the format I would probably make at least two of the Goyfs into Oozes and then tinker around with what to do with the other slots. Possibly Elvish Visionary...

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Jason’s Article: Dead Precedents

Posted on July 16, 2013July 16, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Salivators!

I wanted to talk about change this week, so why not start with a big one? I don't see the point in calling this "Jason's Archives" anymore, so the first big change I'll make is in the title bar. I hope this sets the tone for what I want to talk about today.

Look to the Past

A lot of us called Voice of Resurgence wrong. I took a tour around the internet today to check out what all of the financial set reviews had to say about Swagstag. I found a lot of people hedging ("Eh, maybe you don't sell these for $20 right away, maybe, probably, if you want to play with them, maybe, I guess, probably"), a lot of people straight up refusing to put a dollar value on the card, and a lot of people who did put a dollar value on the card, and were wrong.

Fortunately for me, I don't write financial articles, so I never went on record on this site saying the price I thought was correct for Voice.

Unfortunately for me, I did go on record on the podcast, and it bugs me that I didn't see the financial potential in this card. What the hell happened and how do we avoid it in the future?

Precedent of What?

I think Abrupt Decay is phenomenal. Its colors and casting cost restriction make it a fair card that requires a commitment and a narrow set of targets, yet its power and uncounterability make it appealing across a wide variety of formats. It's fair, powerful, and it seems like it is going to be in green-black's toolbox for years to come.

It may be my favorite card from a set where a lot of cards (Deathrite Shaman, Trostani, Selesnya's Voice, Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius, Supreme Verdict, Vraska the Unseen) are vying for that title. My first thought when I saw the card spoiled was "this will change Legacy forever." My first thought when I saw the $20 preorder price tag was "you can go $%*& yourself."

Abrupt Decay isn't a $20 card.* The sheer balls it took to put a $20 pricetag on a narrow(ish) utility card from a set people are going to buy the ass out of really galled me. I suppose I have regarded every $20+ preorder card with suspicion since.

Happy Birthday, Mr. Precedent

If Library of Alexandria is the unofficial 10th card in the Power Nine (others argue Bazaar and/or Workshop belong on that list), card 11 has to be Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I recognized I wanted these, but since I wasn't involved in the finance game at that point, I bought a whopping four copies for the $30 they preordered for.

It's almost always incorrect to preorder a planeswalker for that much unless you intend to play with it that week, and by categorically saying "don't preorder the planeswalker for this much" you can bat about .900 in the prediction game. There are so many Ral Zareks for every Liliana of the Veil, it's easy to just stay away from walkers for a few weeks, or try to pack them.

Still, players remember that $30 Jace and they don't want to miss the chance to buy the next "piece of power" for a mere twenty-five or thirty dollars. This precedent has altered the presale of every planeswalker from now on.

Precedent Elect

Chase cards from small sets tend to be a little under-priced in the beginning. With more of those chase cards per case, more of them are going to be opened and as the set gets drafted more and more, increased demand is usually mitigated by increased supply.

If the set is good and people want to play a lot of Limited and buy packs to bust the cards they want, the chase cards have a hard time of going too far above their presale price because of all the factors putting downward pressure on the price. There are obvious, very recent examples of cards that violate this trend, however--Sword of War and Peace is still fresh in everyone's minds. New Phyrexia may be the most puzzling of all third sets in history--it's a case study in and of itself.

So What Happened With Voice?

Voice of Resurgence is clearly the best card in a terrible set. Voice of Resurgence has appeal outside of Standard. Dragon's Maze got drafted one pack at a time, not three packs at a time like the other two sets, and that's only until Modern Masters came out and it stopped getting drafted altogether. Voice saw immediate adoption as a four-of in Bant Hexproof, but a lot of pundits and pro players hadn't predicted Voice being a four-of in anything.

Voice is a card that needed a little testing to find the right decks--its power is obvious, but early testing indicated the card was a little underwhelming compared with everyone's lofty expectations upon printing. Once the right deck was found, helped by the block PT a few weeks after the full spoiler was up, Voice's power level was established and obvious to everyone.

All of these factors are unusual and all contributed to a perfect storm, but here's the thing--every single one of these factors was predictable.

If memory serves, Ryan was the only member of the podcast that correctly said you might want to buy Voice at $25. I was remembering Lotleth Troll and rolling my eyes, he was remembering Jace, Architect of Thought--a $20-$25 preorder card that hit $50 in the short term before going back down--and trying to be prepared. Even though he was right, as far as I know, he didn't invest any money in the card.

Why I Don't Feel Bad

Even though Voice hit pretend theoretical $70 on certain websites, you could always find copies for around $40 on eBay, which was my primary out at the time. This was close to the buylist of the sites selling for $70, but that window was very small (about a week long). Being able to sell Voice for full retail at its peak, after fees, meant you approximately doubled up.

Doubling up is awesome- if you could 100% guarantee you'd double up on any investment, the play is to borrow as many hundreds of thousands of dollars as you could and then retire.

For reference, instead of investing in Voice, I invested in Deadbridge Chant which, even though the window was small, nearly quintupled. I bought in at between $1.50 and $2, whereas Voice would have seen me investing at around $25. a $500 in Voices would net you $400-$500, not bad for a day's work. a $500 investment in Chants, in the same ideal Christmas Land where you can move every copy you have for full retail would have netted roughly three times that.

Is it way easier to move a smaller number of copies of a card everyone seems to want? Hell yes it is. Having a binder full of Voices to trade off to people at $70 is a great way to make a ton of money in this business. But if you are looking purely to buy low and sell high, cards like Chant have an easier time going from $1.50 to $2 up to $6-$8 than Voice has of going from $25 to $100 or $150.

One major caveat is if you also play Magic and wanted a set of Voices, following this advice would have led to shelling out more money later than the initial $25.

I feel like I did fine investing elsewhere so I don't regret calling Voice wrong. That doesn't mean I don't wish I'd gotten it right and it doesn't mean there is nothing to learn from the situation.

How Can We Apply What We Learned?

M14 is not a small set. It is a fun limited format. It will likely get drafted a lot, especially at Gen Con where nearly all of the limited events, hundreds in total, will be with M14 cards. There are five planeswalkers, three or four chase mythics instead of one--this set isn't Dragon's Maze.

The odds of something from the set turning into Voice of Resurgence seem low. But considering how I failed to predict Voice's price (let's be honest, the entire finance community did with few exceptions), I want to take a second to look at a few cards after the prerelease weekend, before prices start to move next week when people get ahold of their cases.

Kalonian Hydra: This card is one of the most exciting cards from the set. Hydras always do well with casual players. People are targeting these heavily and the power level seems absurd if they can't deal with it immediately.

I plan to try and pack these but I plan to watch for chatter on Twitter. This is the most hyped card in the set, and I predicted that even though I love the card, you should dump them as soon as you get them.

The direction the card heads first is likely where it will head long-term. Maybe you sit on any you open and see where they go. I don't advocate buying these at $25, though.

Garruk, Caller of Beasts: I don't like this guy, but so many people whose opinion I respect seem to. Either I'm really missing something or everyone just wants him to be good because of how bad Chandra turned out.

If you're ramping to Garruk, why not just ramp to the creature you want to play instead? The only creature you're really "cheating" into play with his ability is Worldspine Wurm, and I don't ever want to play a deck that contains Worldspine Wurm.

I busted a Garruk in Sealed, and paying six mana to draw two or three gas cards is nuts. The first time I played him and used his +1 I saw four lands and a Lava Axe. My first thought was "that sucks" but then I realized "No, it doesn't. I just did the least green thing ever" and filling my mitt with gas the next turn was all I needed to take the game down.

The first and last abilities seem like the best, but are they good enough to bother playing him in Standard? I am outing mine. I feel like this is preselling for as much as it is because of the Jace precedent.

Archangel of Thune: So this card went from $25 to $30 over the weekend, prompting this entire article. It may have seemed like it was about Voice, but it's more about what lessons we can learn from Voice.

Archangel has me puzzled. I don't like it that much, and I sure as hell don't like it at $30. Everyone seems to trying to dump them as quickly as possible.

Looking at another archangel, Sublime Archangel, we see that it seemed overpriced, no one wanted it, and then it just stayed at the exact same price almost forever.

I don't think $30 is correct here, but I am planning to test this card extensively.

Still, the odds of this hitting that ridiculous $70 Voice reached seem so remotely low, I don't anticipate being glad to snag these at $30. I'm not snap-trading them out, but I'm not going to hold on too long, either. If they haven't done anything in a week or two I'd imagine the price will go down, but Sublime Archangel's history seems to indicate they'll fall slowly enough that you can take your time and decide what to do with this card.

Mutavault: How can this possibly not go down? If Theros indicates some tribal goodies, buy in, sure. But copies of this will likely get snapped up by people who can't believe their luck at getting a "ZOMG $30 cradz!" for $15, and once all those copies are gone, I expect it to hit $10. That's where I'm buying in. Regardless of Theros, this is still nuts in Legacy.

What other cards should we take a second look at in light of the puzzling case of Voice of Resurgence?

Tournament Reports!

There were no Grands Prix or SCG events this weekend in light of the Prerelease, making this my favorite time of year because I get to cut out early. I'll make up for the other 2,000 words you were expecting to read by answering what precdents have shown is going to be roughly 25 comments on the article. Have a great week, and open your prize packs. You can't trade out what you have sealed up.

*The foil sat at $20 for a few weeks, too. $20 has never been the correct price for any kind of Abrupt Decay.