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Adventures in Qualifying: Modern PTQ #1

Posted on March 7, 2013March 7, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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I've put in many hours pondering why players love eternal formats. Legacy used to be the only eternal format and I did not really know why players enjoyed it so much. If I had an enormous Legacy collection with every card available, it would be more fun for me because then I could build whatever deck I wanted to play for a given event. Most Legacy players are not like that though. They often play the same deck.

It took me a long time to figure out that they do this because it's their favorite deck of all time. It's hard to imainge a format more diverse than Legacy existing. There are a huge variety of competitive decks to choose from. People who have been playing this game forever want to be able to play their favorite decks from way back when. Legacy grants them the ability to do this.

Modern is a bit different because since its creation, the banned list has been in a constant state of change. With each set release comes the possibility that another card will find itself on the list like Bloodbraid Elf and Seething Song did recently. Modern does offer the same type of reminiscing as Legacy but not to the same extent. If you loved Affinity when it was in Standard, you are set. In general though, unless something gets banned or a new card is printed that shakes up the format, you can continue to play your Modern deck for a while. Even though I could not accomplish the goal with Legacy, I still want to be able to play a variety of decks in Modern. This is one reason I feel that prices of Modern cards keep going up.

Since Modern has become a format I have played both versions of Birthing Pod (Melira and Kiki-Jiki) quite a bit. They are both midrange combo decks that can also win via damage. One major strength was their resilience to Jund. With the banning of Bloodbraid Elf, the format has adapted by breeding more diversity. Since this was Wizards’ goal, I feel the banning was appropriate. There are probably just as many players utilizing strategies similar to Jund but with more of a variety of colors so you never know what you will play against. Those factors along with others lead me to believe that Pod is not the best thing you can be doing right now.

My attitude towards Magic is an adaptive one. I don’t want to stick to the same deck all the time if another deck would be better for the metagame. So, despite having played two Pod decks, UWR Delver, and Splinter Twin, I found myself still looking for something else for the PTQ last weekend. Upon exploring a variety of options, I found myself drawn to aggro-control strategies in the current metagame, with the same goals as Jund but not necessarily those colors.

Last week, both Zac Hill and Drew Levin wrote articles about a new deck they created. Basically they took existing Delver decks and updated the list to include the Grixis colors. The best part in my opinion is the extremely low mana curve. Just like in Legacy, the first three turns of a Modern game are critical. You can proactively progress your own board state or reactively hold your opponents’ back, but you need to use that time effectively to be successful. This deck excels better than any other I've seen at interacting in the early turns. Take a look.

Grixis Delver

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Deathrite Shaman

4 Dark Confidant

4 Snapcaster Mage

1 Vendilion Clique

Spells

4 Serum Visions

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Thoughtseize

3 Remand

1 Mana Leak

1 Izzet Charm

1 Go for the Throat

1 Electrolyze

3 Cryptic Command

Lands

3 Creeping Tar-Pit

2 Darkslick Shores

4 Scalding Tarn

3 Verdant Catacombs

1 Misty Rainforest

1 Watery Grave

1 Steam Vents

1 Breeding Pool

1 Blood Crypt

2 Island

1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Jace Beleren

1 Vendilion Clique

1 Thoughtseize

2 Spell Pierce

1 Countersquall

1 Geths Verdict

1 Liliana of the Veil

2 Surgical Extraction

2 Firespout

2 Ancient Grudge

1 Spellskite

If your first thought is anything like mine, the deck looks a bit crazy and all over the place. I need to tell you though, it is no such thing. This list is like a focused tool designed to tear your opponent apart. In addition to the low mana curve, there are other benefits as well. One of the best parts of the deck is how many cards you see from your own deck. There may be a few singleton copies of cards, but your chances to see them are much greater in this deck than others.

The most powerful thing about this deck is the number of cards it draws compared to the rest of the format. In every game I played with this deck, I felt like I outdrew my opponent significantly. That is a bold claim I know, but it’s the truth and the principle reason I am advocating this deck. Without as much card draw, this deck would fold to a number of strategies. Instead, you are able to capitalize on your ability to disrupt and slow down any opponent.

One important thing you may not have noticed is that the deck only runs twenty lands. Certainly in light of the low mana curve, this is a great bonus to the deck. In addition, you also have Deathrite Shaman to produce mana sometimes. Cryptic Command can occasionally be hard to cast, but other than that, you should be set with two or three lands. Running so few lands is not much of a liability, and usually it means you draw more spells than your opponent.

I was excited to try out this deck at the Columbus PTQ this past weekend. I played a bunch of epic matches, so let’s see what happened.

Round 1 – BUG

It was apparent rather quickly that I was playing a pseudo-mirror, which can make for a tough match. The main difference was that he had Abrupt Decay, which dealt with my threats effectively. Game one was a rather drawn out affair with him bricking on lands and me drawing lots of of mine. I was able to control the game for a bit, but then he drew mana sources and my draws of land after land started to catch up with me. At the end of the game, I had ten lands in play and more fetches in the graveyard. I think I could have found a way to win if I had seen more than two threats throughout the game, but that did not happen.

Game two was extremely close. We both took cards from the other player at the beginning of the game and then tried to take over the board with our threats. Quickly, we got both life totals down low and then suddenly the second and third Tarmogoyfs appeared on the field all in one turn. I had two Deathrite Shamans, one of which that had been dealing him some damage, and a Delver that refused to flip. A Vendilion Clique joined the fight on his side at the end of my turn but he couldn’t decide whether to attack with it or not. Ultimately, he did not send the clique in but I was trying to deal with three 5/6’s.

I blocked in a way that gave me the top of my library as an out, which had to be exactly Lightning Bolt. Both Deathrites drained him on his turn and would again on mine, then a Lightning Bolt would seal the deal. I knew this was my only way to win the game and I made my plays accordingly. I’m not sure why I did this, but I flipped the top card of my library onto the battlefield and declared Bolt you as I revealed the only card that would save me the game. In retrospect, Cryptic Command would have bought me the time I needed as well so I probably should have drawn the card normally, but it sure was an epic win. I tried to contain my ear-to-ear grin as we shuffled up for game three.

The third game started with both of us mulliganing. Fortunately my hand of six was about the best I could ask for in the mirror. Here’s what I kept.

Deathrite turn one into three spells turn two was one of the sickest openings I’ve ever had. The Bolt even killed his Deathrite, one of the better targets. A turn or two later, my Delvers had not flipped but I drew a third one. Since we were running low on time in the round, I put it in play. The following turn, all three flipped and I swung for lethal. A lot sure did happen for round one of a PTQ.

Record 1-0

Round 2: RWB Burn

As round two began I was immediately afraid for my life, as my opponent was playing an updated burn deck with all three colors of efficient burn spells. Game one I stabilized at one life, with multiple counters and at least one threat in play to keep pressure on. The life total I sat at for five or more turns was one life. I felt grateful to win that game, but I never gave up and played around him drawing burn or haste creatures by making conservative attacks.

Game two, he mulliganed to six and I took some of those cards away with Inquisiton of Kozilek and Snapcaster to flash it back. The game was in my control the whole time and I even paid six life, bringing me to eight, in order to fetch the lands to finish him off a turn sooner than I should have. This game involved me bravely casting one of the two Dark Confidants I did not board out as a blocker. He could have killed it with Sudden Shock in order to get damage with Goblin Guide, but elected to just attack instead. I was happy to block and trade. The game did not go well for him from there.

Record 2-0

Round 3: G/R Tron

In my opinion, this should be a good matchup for me. I have hand disruption and counters to delay the ramp deck. The only thing you have to worry about is playing around Pyroclasm. In game one, I had some mana issues. I was unable to draw a land that tapped for red mana and it cost me the game. Normally I would have countered the Karn Liberated with my Izzet Charm and proceeded to win the game, but instead it resolved and the game spiraled out of control shortly thereafter. Game two got a little better but I could not draw a fourth land for all the Cryptics in my hand. If I would have had a fetchland, that would have worked because I had an active Deathrite also. Both games were winnable but not with the cards I drew.

Record 2-1

Round 4: G/R Tron

After losing last round to the same deck, rather than get disheartened, I felt fired up to prove this was a match I should win. Game one definitely proved that. It was a great game, but not really for my opponent. You see, he didn’t really get to play the game much. I led with Delver of Secrets, which blind flipped turn three. I also played Inquisition, Thoughtseize, Snapcaster the Thoughtseize, and Vendilion Clique. He basically did not get to play many spells this game. I was even able to wait a turn or two between discard spells in case he drew something else. This is a great example of how this deck plays sometimes.

Game two was an amazing and epic test of mental skill. Even though I again missed my fourth land to play my Cryptics on time, I was able to use them to great effect. I had both a flipped Delver and a Vendilion Clique but they were trying to race the Wurmcoil Engine he resolved before I drew my land. Since I did draw it, I was able to tap both the Wurmcoil he had in play and the second one I let him have rather than the Karn Liberated I countered. On the first Cryptic Command, I tapped his guys and drew a card. On the second one, another option was needed. I had been tracking his mana production and although he had a ton, he was one short of the ultimate goal of fifteen. So, on the second Cryptic, I chose to tap his guys and bounce his only Urza's Mine. Because of that play, I was able to win the game on my next turn. If I had missed that nuance, I would have lost. My opponent just sat and starred at his board trying to find an out, but he had none.

Record 3-1

Round 5: @ssomers55 with RWU

I’ve known Stu for a while now, but this is the first time I’ve played him at an event. His version of this deck was a bit different than most. The main difference was more burn spells and fewer creatures.

Game one, we both were content to play draw-go for a long time. I tried to play a couple threats but they were killed. I could have protected them, but I was certain he had Geist of Saint Traft in hand and I did not want to deal with it game one if I could avoid it. Because we were both playing cautiously, the game was a long ordeal. I always had cards in hand but I couldn’t find many threats to start attacking him with. Eventually I got a Deathrite to stick but it proved to be a turn or two late. In the mid game, I drew a bunch of discard spells to take a look at his stacked hand. I played both Inquisitions and Snapcaster to get a third card. Taking all his burn spells may have been the right play, but I still think getting both Geists and one burn spell was correct due to my lack of answers for the legend.

When he cast the first Lightning Helix targeting me, I should have known he drew more burn but it didn’t register that would be the reason. I thought he was going to die and I could protect myself with Cryptic Command and Remand, but he had all the burn spells. He drew the rest of his Lightning Helixs, yes all four this game, double Lightning Bolt, and even an Electrolyze on top of that. I did not have enough counters to protect myself from that onslaught of damage.

The real problem was my level of conservative play. A couple times I could have countered spells he played on my turn and did not. I ended the game with many cards in hand that went unused. This game could have been managed much better by using more of my resources. This matchup seems winnable but you must play it differently depending on how your opponent is approaching the game.

Game two did not last long. I saw a seven card hand and a six card one with no lands so that left me with five cards. One of them was a land, and it took too many turns to draw a second or third one. There was not much I could have done. There was a small chance I could have recovered but he had the counter for my Go for the Throat targeting his Restoration Angel.

Overall, I felt this deck was powerful and gave me outs against every major deck in Modern. Even the new aggro decks that are made up of half Standard cards I wasn’t scared of because I stuck some Firespouts in my sideboard. This deck provides many potent lines of play to disrupt your opponent and put them on a short clock. Your cards are so cheap that you should be able to gain an advantage over your opponent with relative ease. This deck is definitely capable of winning a PTQ. Conveniently, there is another one this weekend in my hometown of Pittsburgh and I will probably be rocking this deck. If you find yourself there, come say hi.

Tournament Tips

Play to your outs. Even if you think the game has been won by your opponent, make them kill you. Sometimes they will see it differently and that will give you an opening to get back in the game. You won't win every game this way, but you will win some. Make sure you are thinking about what cards it would take to win the game. If you are already mentally trying to win the game, it will help you make the best use out of your spells. There are many ways to use your cards, don't get caught up with the one way you usually cast a certain card. Keep your options open and it will help you win more games.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the PTQ winning Force!
(But not in Pittsburgh, cause that one's mine!)

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Understanding the Mind of a Casual Trader

Posted on March 6, 2013January 17, 2022 by Jared Elick

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As speculators, our instinct is to watch tournament results for quick money on cards that suddenly gain popularity. However, there are also cards that slowly rise. I'd like to delve into those a bit, and instead of pointing out the cards that are on an increase, I'd like to discuss something that makes for great random trade targets: casual and EDH cards.

The first thing you have to do is spot them. This can be tough. Many of us are competitive players, or at least have a competitive mindset. Yet, we need to look at cards and decide which ones are “fun”.

These cards are AWESOME! — Seriously. These are worth money.

Now, if you don't run into casuals often, this week's article may not be for you. But if casual players are at your FNM, and you need to fill in trades, look here for ideas. These cards may creep up a bit as stock lessens, but we won't see many huge increases in price.

There are a few important things to look for, which I intend to outline in this article.

Awesome Keywords

Doubling –- Casual players love doubling things, especially when it stacks. 4x Parallel Lives and 4x Doubling Season on the board? Lingering Souls gives you 512 Spirits. Tell a casual player that, and he will want to build this slow and terrible deck right away.

Great Standard Examples: Primordial Hydra, Parallel Lives, Curse of Bloodletting, Gisela, Blade of Goldnight, Boundless Realms

X Spells –- Casual players love things that don't have a limit. Ivy Elemental can be a 1,337/1,337- and what nerd doesn't love that? Biomass Mutation could be a casual all-star also, and I can't keep Diabolic Revelation in my binder.

Great Standard Examples: Biomass Mutation, Bonfire of The Damned, Clan Defiance, Devil's Play, Diabolic Revelation, Entreat The Angels, Increasing Confusion, Mikaeus, The Lunarch

Mill -- “Target player mills X,” as it probably should say, is also a popular strategy among casual players. The majority of people don't run Emrakul, The Aeons Torn in casual lists, so this is fairly viable. Instead of using combos to do it (I'm looking at you, Helm of Obedience), they tend to use efficient mill cards such as Increasing Confusion.

Great Standard Examples: Mind Grind, Increasing Confusion, Nephalia Drownyard

Indestructible -– Yeah, nice Murder, bro. Is that a Wrath of God in your hand? That's cool, you can't kill this... Casual players drove [card]Predator Ooze up to a few bucks far before Brian Kibler decided it was the only deck in existence.

Great Standard Examples: Angelic Overseer, Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Boros Charm, Frontline Medic, Phylactery Lich, Stuffy Doll

Creature Types

Casuals often have particular creature types they prefer. Some types are quite common, however I have run into odd collectors, for example a guy who collects Kobolds (yes, he collects Kher Keep too). I would like to go over a few of the notable types. Importantly, these usually buylist for more. I have heard legends of stores auto-offering $.25 each on bulk angels and dragons. Which brings me to my first point...

Angels –- People love angels. They are often undercosted for their abilities. When they are, they shoot up fast, and the foils shoot up further. Legendary angels often make good EDH generals, and the foils can be 250-700% of the nonfoil. Take Sigarda, Host of Herons, for instance. It is on a price dive at about $9.5, but the foil is $24.94. One more note –- I have seen guys building angel decks for girlfriends, which may increase some that otherwise would be bulk.

Great Standard Examples: Angel of Glory's Rise, Angel of Jubilation, Angel of Serenity, Angelic Overseer, Angelic Skirmisher, Firemane Avenger, Serra Avenger

Dragons –- Guys love dragons. Specifically the type of guy who things those keywords above are so awesome. They will snap-trade for big, scary dragons with awesome abilities. Many cards you may have bulked in can be traded at a $1 rate to these guys, and they are amazed that you only want a buck for it.

Great Standard Examples: Balefire Dragon, Moonveil Dragon, Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius, Slumbering Dragon, Thundermaw Hellkite, Utvara Hellkite

Elves –- People often like these just for the lore, but elves as a tribe work very well. Just ask Riley Curran, the guy from one of my LGS who recently took down a Legacy Open with Elves. Casuals love even the bad ones, and the lords are huge. Buy these cheap and stock your binders, as they will fly right out.

Great Standard Examples: Elvish Archdruid, Gyre Sage, Master Biomancer, Yeva, Nature's Herald

Other Examples

Beyond keywords and creature types (although the lists above are far from all-inclusive), many other things can make casual players go insane. Here are a few examples for you:

Vraska The Unseen –- Three 1/1 Assassin tokens? I don't even care about the Vindicate ability, I just want to kill someone with those tokens. Many casual players agree, and this could be a $10 planeswalker down the road. However, I've never kept one in my binder through an FNM.

Stuffy Doll –- It was in the list earlier, but this card is really fun. Your opponent doesn't like to attack, you ping them for one every turn, and Blasphemous Act becomes amazing. Trample is tough, but casual players don't think about that until it happens. Stock these, trade them, make money.

Curse of Stalked Prey –- Just about everyone on these forums knows that an Ash Zealot is a better two-drop in 97% of situations, but casuals love trying to blow you out with Red Deck Wins packing 12 enchantments. You will see it played by the lower end of the FNM bracket, and it will finally deal 20 damage on turn eight.

Havengul Lich –- Oh, the potential. I played the Heartless Summoning combo deck with this, and it was pretty fun. That deck has gone, but this card will be in casual decks for years to come. I have also seen it in a large number of U/B EDH decks, and if I had one, it would be in there too.

Biovisionary –- Try to have four for trade. Someone will want to try it. It may even be semi-viable in Standard, and hit Tier 1.5 status. It is very win-more, but casuals will love the bragging rights of the Biovisionary kill.

Keeping Cards on Hand

There are tons of other cards to consider, but the main point is that it's beneficial to keep EDH and casual cards available for trade. I have given away a stack of bulk rares for a few $10-$20 cards more times than I care to count. Sure, you want to have expensive and overpriced cards in your binder, like Thundermaw Hellkite and Huntmaster of the Fells, but these casual cards are often worthless junk that you would rather get rid of.

So, remember that casual players exist, and you can make money trading with them without ripping them off. You probably have a pile of bulk that they want, and they have that Snapcaster Mage they never even use. Get out there, fill a binder with junk, and make some money!

Insider: Touch of the Eternal — Long-Term Investments

Posted on March 5, 2013January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Today's article will focus on cards that function as long-term investments. We will see that many of these are EDH cards, which are often undervalued while they are Standard-legal.

Unfortunately, the concept of the EDH or Commander card is often thrown about all willy-nilly. People look at cards like Rite of Ruin and assume that if it's not Standard/Modern/Legacy-playable, it costs a lot and is janky, it must be an EDH card. In reality that's a poor definition. Rite of Ruin is just a junk rare. Sure it may make its way into a few EDH decks, but it's by no means an "EDH card."

When trying to determine if a card might become a Commander staple, there are a few things to consider:

1. Since EDH games tend to go longer, mana costs can be higher. But does the card's mana cost reflect a good investment (i.e. does the effect vs. the cost seem reasonable)?

2. What color(s) is the card? The more colors on the card, the fewer Commander decks can play it. This is why mono-color cards, or better yet artifacts, are often the best spec targets as "EDH cards."

3. Does the card provide any benefits as the number of players in a game goes up (like the primordial cycle from Gatecrash)?

4. Does the card do something similar to an existing "EDH" card (i.e. Parallel Lives is half of a Doubling Season)?

5. Does the card solve a problem that its color couldn't previously solve (i.e. Chaos Warp gives red spot removal for enchantments)?

6. Does the card fit a popular theme, creature type or play style (for example token generators, angels or mill cards)?

7. Does the card fit in a popular Commander decklist (i.e. Gruul Ragebeast is ridiculous in Mayael the Anima decks)?

Gatecrash

Let's look at some Gatecrash cards and see if we can find any good long-term investments.

Sylvan Primordial -- This (along with all the other primordials) is a perfect Commander card. The mana cost and ability are a bad investment in a one-vs.-one matchup so immediately it gets lumped into the junk rare category. But consider how ridiculous the abilities are in a four-plus player game. Seven mana to destroy four or more noncreature permanents and fetch any forest, including dual lands, Murmuring Bosk or even Dryad Arbor.

This is like a Woodfall Primus on crack. It gives you immediate card advantage and a 6/8 with reach is nothing to sneeze at. This is also the only primordial whose power level isn't directly influenced by the power of your opponents' decks. I've been buying all the cheap playsets of this I can find on eBay and will keep doing so.

Diluvian Primordial -- This is the second most powerful primordial (but apparently the most common judging by the numerous ones I've seen in trade binders). Similar to Sylvan he can provide immediate card advantage, but his power is heavily influenced by the power of the decks you're playing against. If your opponents cards are good enough, he can easily become the most powerful primordial. Don't underestimate the fact that he exiles the spell after casting it, which can prevent your opponents from looping certain spells. Blue also has some blink effects which could allow you multiple uses and some truly broken plays with him. Do you know what's more fun than casting Bribery in EDH? Casting Bribery from one opponent and Time Stretch from another.

Sepulchral Primordial -- The third most powerful, the black primordial allows you to animate one creature from each opponents' graveyard. If it isn't apparent by now, I love the primordial cycle and believe each one will be worth 5-10 times what they are now within the next 3 years. I always pick them up as throw-ins whenever I can.

Luminate Primordial/Molten Primordial -- These are the weakest of the primordials, but that really isn't saying much. The ability to get an Act of Treason or a Swords to Plowshares for each opponent is still quite powerful and can end games quickly. It doesn't surprise me that the weakest in the abstract is the white one, as white has the most blink effects and the ability to exile creatures is very useful in a format with so much recursion.

Gruul Ragebeast -- I mentioned this card above for good reason. I threw one in my Mayael deck and it became an all-star very quickly. Most decks that want a creature like this play lots of big creatures and the Ragebeast allows you to kill something every time you do. This is incremental card advantage in colors that don't tend to get any, but it's also quite flavorful and a blast to play. His dual color requirement will isolate him from a decent number of decks, but picking up foils will almost assuredly pay off in the long run.

Angelic Skirmisher -- This is one of the few cards I preordered (and quite honestly at an inflated price that I now regret), but she jumped out at me as a very powerful EDH card. The single color requirement allows her to fit in any deck and the real beauty is that you get a benefit the turn she comes into play, assuming she's not immediately killed. My favorite combination is picking vigilance on your attack step and first strike on your opponents. This is also an angel so it follows #6 on the list. Another card I wouldn't hesitate to pickup in foil at 2 dollars or so.

Lazav, Dimir Mastermind -- While this card isn't super-cheap at the moment, he has cool abilities in strong Commander colors. His low cost and hexproof ability are highly desirable characteristics for a general. One fun thing to consider is that you can swing with him as a 3/3 and before damage use a kill spell to change what he's copying. He also plays well with creatures that have triggered abilities either on declaring attacks (the Titan cycle) or on dealing damage (Thieving Magpie).

Thespian's Stage -- This card was greatly hyped for EDH players (preselling at $7.50) and has plummeted all the way down to the dollar range. EDH players will still want this land in the long run and the fact that it can go in every single EDH deck means it's a great long-term spec. These are a good pickup as throw-ins when trying to balance out a trade, as they are currently valued low and grinders have no issue trading them off.

One very important thing to remember with all long-term investments is that you can't expect them to payoff immediately. These are not the Boros Reckoners that suddenly spike in price, but rather the Parallel Lives; the cards that start out near bulk and build up value over time.

It's hard to fathom now, but before EDH become big Doubling Season was a bulk rare. These are my favorite cards to invest in other than lands. They are usually easy to pick up in larger quantities and most competitive players are more than happy to unload them at a cheap rate. Put them in a box and forget about them for two years, and then voilà, your cards are worth considerably more than you invested in them, which is exactly the opposite of what happens with most Standard staples.

Jason’s Archives: A Legacy of Failure

Posted on March 5, 2013March 5, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Don't let the exclamation point fool you, I'm not feelin' the magic right now and you're about to get hit by my snark cannon, both barrels.

"But Jason," I hear you ask, "what kind of cannon has multiple barrels? That's a pretty terrible metaphor you've constructed."

I'm here to tell you I don't need your sassafras because what I want to talk about today is upsetting to me and I am not going to brook a bunch of jibber jabber from the peanut gallery, you dig?

I'm here to talk to you about a time I changed my mind.

And I Don't Like Changing My Mind

A popular retail website (I won't say who) announced recently that they are making changes to the Sunday schedule of their popular "Star City Games Open Series." Again, I won't say who it was, but the Star City Games Open Series will no longer be running Legacy on Sunday as a rule, but rather introducing rotating events such as Modern, Two-Headed Giant and everyone packing their stuff up and leaving because the trades suck on Sunday and everyone has to work tomorrow.

When the announcement was first made regarding these changes, I laughed at all the panic sellers. "I'll be happy to buy your Legacy stuff," I said, putting my hands on my hips and laughing until my entire body shook, like a cartoon lumberjack. "Hahahahaha" was also a direct quote, although you won't see that in writing anywhere else. I probably just said it as I was typing the other thing. While I still don't think we should panic-sell our Legacy cards, I don't have as much confidence in the health of Legacy as a format. There are several factors and indicators. Look, it's all a bit technical.

Ok, so saying "It's all a bit technical" only works if you're a lazy screenwriter. If you're writing an actual article, you have to explain. Fine, I'll explain.

Sigmund wrote a good article about card stagnation over on the premium side. Go read it because I'm going to spoil something from his article. I'll wait. Seriously, if you think I'm going to just move on without checking to see if you actually read it and you can just read ahead you have another thing coming. Great, you read the whole thing. What did you think? Specifically about what he said about Force of Will. What's so significant about that card?

I think there is one card that is an amazing dipstick for checking the health of Legacy as a format. Where else does Force of Will get played besides Legacy and Vintage? The card advantage is a bit punishing for EDH, it's not legal anywhere else, and it's got way too many lines of text for casual players. Wasteland is good in EDH, [card Dark Confidant]Bob[/card] and [card Tarmogoyf]Goyf[/card] are marquis cards in Modern (OK, fine, you got me; I don't know what "marquis" means), and there is an angry kami accidentally summoned by practitioners of Shinto out of Osaka, Japan that tracks down and devours copies of Umezawa's Jitte. However, what happens to Force of Will usually indicates what's happening to Legacy because it's a popular card there, the decks that want it run 3+ copies and it's not great anywhere else.

Well, Force of Will is not doing great. The price is coming down, slowly. Remember how I said buylists indicate the degree of confidence in a card? Well, FoW currently buylists for $40 on a lot of sites, including one site, I won't say who, that runs a tournament series called the "Star City Games Open". They are also known colloquially as "The only people running Legacy tournaments with more than twenty attendees." If they are only paying $40 on a card they used to charge $100 for, they just don't care that much about picking them up. Why? Because they aren't selling as well as they used to. Nearly everyone who wants to play Legacy has their four copies and Legacy is not attracting new players.

Now I don't blame Legacy for Sundays at SCG Opens sucking. I blame Sunday sucking and everyone wanting to go home for that. I think once other formats are run in that spot and they're similarly under-attended that will become clear. I say "similarly" because other formats don't have the "I don't have the damn cards" problem Legacy has. Attendance will be up over Legacy but won't come close to Saturday attendance. However, that will be enough to drive a stake in Legacy's heart unless Wizards does something to support it, which they've demonstrated they're not inclined to. With WoTC loading all of their eggs into a basket labeled "Modern," I think it's a good time to get out of Force of Will.

Dual lands will be both playable and collectible forever. EDH and cube players desire duals. Wasteland is in the same boat. A lot of other Legacy staples are Modern-legal, and the ones that aren't are usually solid in EDH. A shift away from Legacy hurts cards like Mother of Runes, Nimble Mongoose and such, but no more so than a shift in the metagame would have. So the good news is you really don't have to do anything different in my opinion. Most Legacy stuff has enough redundancy with other formats and enough collectibility that you're not likely to eat a fat one if Legacy drops off entirely. Also, there are things you can do.

A lot of us don't think the people with no money should do our speaking for us. If the people who do have money don't want to get into Legacy, fine, let them spend $800 every three months and talk about how they're glad they never spent $1000 one time on Legacy cards that have doubled in price in the last five years.

But let's not let WoTC's apathy and SCG's miscalculation take down the best format. People will drive to play Legacy, especially if they don't want to play Modern or there is nothing going on close that day. Not everyone wants to fly nine hours for a GP. A lot of people would rather drive two hours to play Saturday Legacy at an LGS.

See if your LGS will sponsor a Legacy event with a good prize pool. If you do a decent job advertising, people will come from farther away than you would have expected. The format only dies if we let it. Too hard to get into? Fine, throw a 10/10/10 event; $10 entry, 10 free proxies, 10 cents per proxy after the initial ten. Help newer players build budget decks like RDW or Poison, or even help them port their Modern deck. Legacy will always be a better format than Modern, it just needs a helping hand.

Or just do nothing and bitch about it. It makes no difference to me, I'm keeping my copies of Force of Will until they pry them from my cold, dead hands.

The Death Rattle of a Dying Format

Or maybe not. I would be happy to be proven wrong by a resurgence in Legacy, and there was a decent showing for it in Vegas this weekend.

SCG Las Vegas Legacy Top 16

The top finisher being a Rest in Helm deck (I'm going to work on that name, it does not sound good to me) makes me laugh and laugh. The two-card combo has always been solid and its eventual adoption made Helm of Obedience a real solid pickup, having a spread of a mere 33% and being a card not many people know has spiked to over $15 (maybe they do). Thanks, Jack Colwell.

So much Show and Tell! I had written this deck off a while back, but it's everywhere in this top sixteen. This seems like a fluke, but I don't know how many more of these events we'll see to bear that out.

It had seemed like Jund was on the cusp of being the next big thing, but I feel like a meta full of Sneak and Show decks is going to smash you before your Punishing Grove combo matters. I have real confidence in Punishing Jund and I have the tons of copies of Grove of the Burnwillows to prove it. In a meta with more control and more Delver, that deck is king. Sometimes the discard can still get to these decks, born out by Scott Paris' on-the-bubble finish that could have easily been top eight with better breakers. Thoughtseize, [card Hymn to Tourach]Hymn[/card] and [card Liliana of the Veil]Liliana[/card] are a nasty combination and if they can't Force the discard you'll get them quickly with a big Goyf. I don't like that I like a Jund deck, but it's the closest to Punishing Maverick we're likely to get so I'll go with the flow. Long live Punishing Grove!

The "Pet Deck of the Week" award goes to Jason Bulkowski and his top eight finish with Dredge. The maindeck Rest in Peaces in Colwell's list would likely have kept him from winning the whole thing, but top eight is no joke. Congrats!

Shallow Grave Reanimator nearly took it down, but they had the exceedingly bad luck of facing a deck with maindeck Rest in Peace in the finals. I like pitching [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] and having seven ways to reanimate him with his trigger on the stack an awful lot, and while I am staying away from Shallow Grave as a financier, I wouldn't mind having a set as a player. It will settle back down to $5ish soon and I'll pick them up then. Really, I just want to play something with Griselbrand ever since I had mine signed and altered by Russel Brand.

Legacy continues to be a great format that incorporates cards from every new set. I am going to find a way to play Legacy and I welcome you all to join me.

Oh, Yeah. Standard.

Fine, I'll write about Standard, too.

SCG Open Las Vegas Standard Top 16

Five copies of UWR Flash in the top sixteen. This is the format people would rather play than Legacy. Honestly.

So UWR Flash won the event, piloted by Devyn March who beat Evan Boritas' Experiment Jund deck (We need to work on that name too) in the finals. Boros Reckoner appears to be here to stay as a lot of the top decks are all about doing silly junk with him. In this case, players set up an infinite lifegain combo by making Reckoner indestructible with Boros Charm and dealing himself his own damage on an infinite loop while he has lifelink. Gatecrash has been out for less than a month and Standard is already ruined.

A nice counter to these strategies is Abrupt Decay and/or Tragic Slip. I still think The Aristocrats has the goods to deal with these Reckoner decks, but something similar to Kibler's B/G Ooze deck could be a good choice as well. I like Predator Ooze and get shipped them in bulk all the time, which makes me laugh. Abrupt Decay, Tragic Slip, Mutilate and Supreme Verdict are all useful at removing the Reckoner, but are all pretty poor once the Boros Charm resolves (and it's not your turn in the case of half of those). Plain, old-fashioned Unsummon seems pretty clutch if you ask me, and I could see Auger Spree getting tried if the format stays as is. That said, I hardly play this game anymore and I will let them meta evolve as it always does: everyone deciding the only answer to UWR is to play it yourself and forcing WoTC to ban something.

Humaninator continues to do well, and so does Jund and R/G, although R/G isn't as ubiquitous as it once was. Only one Naya deck in the top sixteen is puzzling considering Naya won the last two SCG Opens, but I can imagine it has a tough time dealing with UWR Flash and the meta may have finally left Naya in the dust. With few tools to deal with the lucky charm action, the infinite life gives Flash inevitability.

The strangest development here, though, is that the top finisher didn't have Boros Charm anywhere in his 75. With no possibility of pulling off that stupid combo, and only one copy of Harvest Pyre, he won through beating faces and beating fair decks with a list loaded with card advantage. Augur of Bolas could be a decent pickup here if you can get them cheap as they'll trade out well as a playset. SCG has a tendency to understock uncommons people need, forcing players who want to audible into another deck to look for them in trade. How many traders bring along uncommons? Not many, but I do. Don't leave home without them.

Standard is still getting worked out, so I won't declare intense hatred of it yet, but the lack of different archetypes makes it seem stale and grindy compared to older formats. Modern is seeing a lot of innovation in the form of Amulet of Vigor decks that use bouncelands and Summer's Bloom to get a ton of easy mana. Amulet already got [card Cloudpost]posts[/card] banned in Modern. Is it time to take a look at the Amulet itself or is it more fun than broken? Only time will tell.

In Conclusion

Support your local Legacy scene; create one if necessary. If WoTC won't support it and SCG won't support it, it's up to you to make sure it continues. Legacy is a great format with varied archetypes and no one deck that can dominate for long. Any deck can win and that makes it fun and dynamic, and if you can find creative ways to attract new players we can make Legacy more than just a bad Vintage.

But what do I know? I don't even play this game.

Insider: Serenity Now

Posted on March 5, 2013January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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Sometimes Magic speculation is easy. Spellskite, Phantasmal Image and Phyrexian Metamorph post rotation were good examples, and today we have Angel of Serenity. With near mint copies available for less than $7 and Ebay completed auctions showing clear signs of price uncertainty, now is as good a time as any to grab copies of this beauty on the cheap.

Standard Calls

I have traded in and out of this angel two times before. I've preordered copies for about $7.50 each and purchased one soon after release for $13. Flipping Angel of Serenity for $20 is a thing of the past, but there is still at least ten dollars of value here and the downside can't be much more than 2 dollars.

Supreme Verdict is selling for $4. A 4cc uncounterable Wrath effect that pitches to Force of Will has to be worth at least $5, no? If Standard moves away from U control, don't let the chance to pick up this bomb get away. Another card with very little downside that will see play across many formats? Yes please.

With NM copies of Detention Sphere for less than $2.50, I won't be looking to move copies anytime soon. Not unlike Supreme Verdict, with U/W out of favor in Standard prices for Oblivion Ring's cousin are getting cheap. Buying copies under $2 is hard, but I'll be happy picking up copies from players willing to let go of their copies at current prices.

A Casual Card

Thespian's Stage is at least as playable as Chromatic Lantern and yet can be had for 1/3 the cost. While these cards on the surface do different things, EDH remains the most likely place each find substantial play. With foil copies of Thespian's Stage already pushing $10, there is a good chance to get ahead in trades by scooping up foil copies from the less savy. Of course, you risk Karmic default, but foil markets are highly volatile and illiquid. That means plenty of room for profit and greater risk, certainly a situation that calls for aggressive trading habits.

More Modern

While Modern is mostly overbought, a gem like Inkmoth Nexus represents reasonable value due to its playability. With NM copies steadily creeping up to $5, these are best acquired through trades. Thankfully, after being included in an event deck many Standard players picked up copies and now have them languishing in binders. With Wizards unlikely to reprint Inkmoth Nexus thanks to keyword INFECT, over time I'd expect Inkmoth to command Blinkmoth Nexus prices. Ebay, normally representing a discount to other internet pricing, shows Inkmoth selling equal to or slightly above the average low elsewhere; a trend worth watching.

Something a Little Wilder

Wanna walk out on a limb with me? Take a look at Firemane Avenger. Future Gameday promo not withstanding, I like Helix on a stick even if it is a creature and in search of battalion. With NM copies going for $1.40, and Ebay having multiple completed listings for copies at higher prices, the Avenger is showing some signs of life. I am not too sure I want to put more than $10 into a play like this, but trading into copies on the cheap is a great way to build up a position of >12 copies.

Angel of Serenity and Supreme Verdict along with my favorite RtR Shocklands (Hallowed Fountain and Steam Vents) present very safe speculation targets at current prices that have long term value thanks to being playable in multiple formats. Even if U/W remains somewhat out of favor, I don't see much downside for any of these cards, making them a great sink for your Modern profits.

Insider: What’s Not Moving Lately

Posted on March 4, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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It’s a well-known fact that Magic: The Gathering, once a relatively unknown and unpopular card game, has now become more popular than ever before. This is evidenced across multiple metrics. Most notably, the players have just set a record for largest Magic tournament ever.

This massive influx of players has driven many incredible pricing phenomena, from the inevitable such as the increase in Zendikar Fetch Lands to the bizarre, like the increase of Hall of the Bandit Lord (chart from mtgstocks.com). Price spikes are the norm and I come to expect one at least weekly, if not more often.

But this article isn’t intended to be a rehash of another Hall of the Bandit Lord discussion. Instead I want to look more broadly at shifting prices. My goal: to identify if any groups of cards or products have not participated in the recent MTG rally. This indicates to me that new players would not be flocking to those formats, strategies, etc., and that these categories are possibly going obsolete.

Rather than explaining further, I’ll illustrate with an example.

Force of Will

Here’s a card I have not talked about in quite some time and for good reason. Looking at the price chart from mtgstocks.com, we see that Force of Will doesn’t really shift notably in price. Instead the card remains in the $65 to $68 range, hardly a noteworthy percentage when you compare this with the likes of Hall of the Bandit Lord.

My proposed rationale should not come as a real surprise. New players are not joining the MTG community to play Legacy. The price of entry into the competitive format is at record highs, and this likely deters newer players from trying to play the format. What’s more, first hand accounts (including my own misconception years ago) suggest that new players assume games of Legacy are won within the first two or three turns. If that were true, the format would be much less enjoyable!

To me, this trend is rather alarming. Consider the facts: Wizards has created a new “eternal” format, Wizards says the new format is now a Pro Tour and PTQ format, Wizards explicitly states that Legacy cannot be a Pro Tour format due to lack of card availability, and Wizards announces release of Modern Masters to drive up the popularity of the format.

To me, this signals a time of stagnation for Legacy. Some cards that don’t have other homes will gradually decline in price – this is especially the case for cards currently out of favor, such as Natural Order.

Many will argue that Dual Lands will not see a price trend similar to the above. EDH, which has increased in popularity recently, should continue to keep those prices elevated. I’m not prepared to refute that, though I suspect a major event such as SCG Opens converting from Legacy to Modern at least part-time, will have a negative impact. Still, Legacy cards that don’t see significant play elsewhere are in line for a pull-back in price – especially those not on the reserved list.

Standard Booster Boxes

I absolutely love investing in sealed booster boxes. When a newish set is printed with many valuable cards, especially with eternal playability, I take notice and try to pick up a box or two at the right price. Boxes from smaller sets which are drafted least are also very attractive pickups.

Despite the massive influx of new Magic players, this hasn’t had an impact on booster boxes of current Standard sets yet. But the key word here is “yet”. Look just one block removed from Standard and you start to see what may become the future for current Standard booster box pricing. The following prices are retail from Star City Games, but are likely to only increase moving forward.

Here we see the trend I mentioned before – namely, that boxes from the smaller, less drafted sets tend to increase in price faster. Boxes of New Phyrexia have been on a rapid rise, and even Mirrodin Beseiged boxes have moved in price. Scars of Mirrodin, however, remains left in the dust.

The same trend exists in older blocks as well. Future Sight boxes are a fortune, and while Rise of the Eldrazi boxes are incredibly expensive, they don’t even compare to the way-underdrafted Worldwake (Okay, I suppose Jace didn’t help matters).

Even though more boxes are being printed and opened to meet increased demand, supplies of Standard booster boxes still dry up within a couple years. If we eye the trend indicated above, the best set to buy currently would be Avacyn Restored. The set has a ton of casual appeal, lots of Angels, some Legacy and Modern playable cards, and it was a third set. In fact, the retail price on Avacyn Restored has already separated itself from counterparts Innistrad and Dark Ascension – they are $109.99. Within two years I suspect they will be where New Phyrexia is today: sold out at $159.99.

Unlike Legacy, which seems to have stagnated, more players likely means good things for booster box investments to come. If a set is an utter failure, I could see this type of buy be unsuccessful. But with the homeruns Wizards of the Coast has been printing lately, I would be shocked to see booster boxes of Avacyn Restored retail for under $100 on Star City Games ever again.

Standard’s Next

Modern caused many crazy price spikes. As more players entered Magic, they too wanted a taste of PTQ glory. That combined with rampant speculation has led to a very profitable PTQ season. But just because Modern is coming to an end does not mean profitable days must too go on hold.

Standard PTQ season is next, and the format is currently well balanced. This will likely lead to a healthy season with increasing demand of many staples. If the player base continues to grow, even cards from Return to Ravnica will appear short in supply, causing the price of some cards like Sphinxs Revelation to increase appreciably (chart from mtgstocks.com).

I would encourage readers to re-evaluate their Standard portfolio and shift focus towards that direction for the coming months. Many profitable opportunities will present themselves, and remaining focused and engaged within the MTG community will maximize chance for success.

Just don’t forget about Modern altogether. If there is a massive sell-off in anticipation of Modern Masters, be sure to have your mouse ready to click and purchase all the bargains that may present themselves. You’ve been warned.

…

Sigbits

This past weekend I attended a PTQ, and some buy prices from the vendors were quite surprising. While Standard buy prices were abysmal, dealers were still crazy for Modern cards, despite nearing the end of Modern season, Modern Masters looming, etc. Here were some noteworthy ones:

Even though I had already sold them, I saw one vendor paying $45 on Dark Confidant and $50 on Thoughtseize. Either that vendor had a major Modern scene or they were looking for a world of hurt. Many were snap-selling at these prices and with high risk of reprint in Modern Masters, who can blame them?
It continues to amaze me how much I can get on Umezawas Jitte. These frequently sell for between $17 and $20 on eBay, and yet some dealers will pay me $18 on them. While this doesn’t mean there’s serious profit to be had, it does indicate that trading for Jittes may provide you with an outlet of ridding other cards for cash without losing too much on your margins.
One dealer offered me $5 each on my moderately played Spell Snares. I accepted in a heartbeat. While slightly more may be possible selling online, I know that a possible reprint in Modern Masters could be devastating to the card’s price. And after fees, shipping, and condition are taken into account, I felt the price offered was perfectly acceptable.

Fresh Decks from Friends

Posted on March 1, 2013March 1, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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One of the best parts about Magic is travelling with friends. I know many pros and amateurs have written about this as a key aspect of the game but it still bears repeating. As someone who has traveled many a mile to events by himself, I will tell you, it’s so much more fun to be able to go with a group of your friends. Travelling by yourself can be enjoyable as well so if you can’t find someone to go with, make the trek by yourself. You don’t have to rely on anyone else and if the event doesn’t go your way, you can leave whenever you want.

Recently, my friends and I traveled to SCG Cincinnati for one of the first Standard events of the new season. The beginning of the season is always my favorite time to brew and my friends did their best brewing as well. If you want to read my tales from the event, you can find them here. I may be updating the Zoo deck I played, or trying something else out, but that version is quite powerful and still good in the metagame. For today, I wanted to talk about the two decks my friends played at the event because they are interesting, unique, and still well positioned.

Deck #1: Junk Aggro
By 2grimm4u on Twitter

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Gravecrawler

4 Diregraf Ghoul

4 Rakdos Cackler

4 Cloistered Youth

3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

4 Loxodon Smiter

3 Desecration Demon

Spells

4 Rancor

3 Orzhov Charm

3 Abrupt Decay

2 Victim of Night

1 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb

4 Godless Shrine

2 Temple Garden

4 Isolated Chapel

3 Woodland Cemetery

4 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Devour Flesh

3 Duress

3 Blind Obedience

3 Vile Rebirth

2 Golgari Charm

1 Abrupt Decay

As you can tell, this is not your typical Junk deck. First of all, there are no tokens, reanimation spells, and certainly no ramping going on. Calling this your typical Junk deck would be like calling the movie Thor a romantic comedy. Sure, there are funny parts and there definitely is a love story going on during the plot, but it is by no means a romantic comedy. Same thing applies here with the deck title. When I was talking about this deck and making suggestions about it, my first thought was to add Thragtusk. This was because I did not understand the goal of the deck, to be as aggressive and disruptive to the opponent as possible.

This idea of deck identity is lost in deck construction sometimes. Make sure you have a reason you are playing every card in your deck. If someone looks at the deck and asks why a given card is in the list, make sure you can defend its inclusion.

There are definitely a lot of things this deck has going for it but some weaknesses as well. Here are the pros and cons.

Pros:

The deck is very aggressive, almost as fast as Naya Blitz (Zoo).
The removal this deck can play is powerful and unparalleled.
Because the removal is so good, the deck matches up well against Boros Reckoner. Most aggressive decks cannot make such a claim.
Rogue decks are always unexpected and your opponent will not know what cards you are playing.

Cons:

Because there is so much targeted removal, you may have dead cards game one against a control deck.
Since this is not the fastest deck, nor the most resilient, midrange decks can go over the top of you more easily. This doesn’t necessarily mean you lose but you have a much harder time doing so.
With many of your creatures unable to block, if you fall behind, it is difficult to catch up.

Overall, the pros seem greater than the cons. Abrupt Decay plus Orzhov Charm seems like the dynamic killing duo, ready to deal with almost any situation. If you are looking for a different type of aggro deck, this may be just what you are looking for.

Deck #2: Holy Jund
By joshuamilliken on Twitter

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Huntmaster of the Fells

2 Olivia Voldaren

4 Thragtusk

Spells

4 Pillar of Flame

4 Farseek

3 Mizzium Mortars

2 Orzhov Charm

3 Selesnya Charm

4 Dreadbore

2 Aurelias Fury

4 Lingering Souls

Sideboard

3 Deathrite Shaman

2 Abrupt Decay

1 Oblivion Ring

1 Aurelias Fury

2 Rakdoss Return

2 Blind Obedience

2 Centaur Healer

2 Slaughter Games

Lands

2 Kessig Wolf Run

4 Stomping Ground

2 Rootbound Crag

3 Temple Garden

1 Sunpetal Grove

3 Overgrown Tomb

1 Woodland Cemetery

2 Blood Crypt

1 Dragonskull Summit

1 Godless Shrine

3 Sacred Foundry

1 Clifftop Retreat

If I say Jund is the best deck right now, you probably know I'm referring to the midrange control Jund deck, but it never hurts to mention it again. The deck has been posting great numbers since the addition of Arbor Elf when Gatecrash entered the format. Anytime a deck becomes the best, if you are playing it you should start thinking about how to combat the mirror. Adding white was the solution in this instance. The white gives you cards like Lingering Souls, a couple different charms, Aurelias Fury, and better sideboard cards.

Pros:

The whole purpose of playing this deck is a mirror match in your favor.
Great matchups outside of the one it was built to beat.
Better late game than other midrange decks. Not better than all, but certainly no slouch.
Four colors offers a wide range of strong sideboard cards.
Rogue decks are always unexpected and your opponent will not know what cards you are playing.

Cons:

A four-color manabase plus two Kessig Wolf Runs seems extremely greedy.
Possibility of more mulligans based on the mana base.
When you are metagaming against the best deck, often other people are as well. In this case I have found there is a high variance when two alternate versions must play each other. Often this goes poorly for you.
With access to so many cards due to playing four colors, choosing which ones make the final cut can be difficult. Any wrong decision could cause losses.

Overall, I like this deck because of how many players are bringing similar Jund decks to events. Gaining a huge edge in the mirror while not diluting your deck in other matchups is a tough thing to pull off. If you want to play this deck, you should put in more than your normal amount of testing because it is more skill-intensive to play. If you have been playing the other Jund control deck, you should be able to adapt fairly quickly though. Jund is powerful all on its own with or without the white mana, but make sure you have a plan for the mirror.

Tournament Tips: Sideboarding

Magic is always changing. As is the way we play, build decks and approach formats. That means the way we sideboard should be changing as well. There are three main ways, in my opinion, to approach the creation of a sideboard. The first two are fairly typical approaches, whereas the third happens less often.

1. Upgrades –- The idea here is that each of your cards could be better served if you played a card with a more narrow application. A great example is Abrupt Decay. In Standard right now, this card does a ton of things, but in certain matchups it has few to no targets. In the case of an upgrade-centric sideboard, you might replace the Smother/Vindicate hybrid with something like Duress.

Another example would be Doom Blade vs. Go for the Throat or replacing Searing Spear with Negate. Red decks playing Reckless Waif in the sideboard. Clearly that is a solid creature, but it is best against control decks that don’t have many one- or two-mana plays. To sum up this concept, your focus is slightly improving the cards that are already in your deck.

2. Hosers –- With this type of sideboard, you are hoping your sideboard cards will win you the game by not allowing your opponent to do so. Cards like Leyline of Sanctity, Leyline of the Void and Rest in Peace are great examples. You see this more frequently in older formats with decks that attack from many different angles. Also, the hosers are more potent in the eternal formats. Rest in Peace or graveyard hate in general does see play in Standard right now, so this type of sideboard is not unlikely to be seen there as well.

3. Transformational –- This type of sideboard plan does not come up often but when it does, you can obtain a powerful advantage. At a variety of Modern events, I have seen players do some crazy things with this type of plan. One Storm player I saw boarded out most of the storm package in game two and boarded into Splinter Twin combo. Another example is bringing in a Gifts Ungiven package like four Gifts Ungiven, Iona, Shield of Emeria and Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite.

In Standard the only thing close to this strategy is a reanimator deck bringing in replacements for Unburial Rites and Mulch to allow them to turn into a midrange control deck.

If you are going to try out this sideboarding idea, do not be afraid to use up all fifteen cards in your sideboard to do so. The risk with this type of sideboard is that then you won’t have access to sideboard cards for specific matchups. If you do it right, you will not need them though.

No matter what you decide about your sideboard, make sure you have a plan you understand. Pros dislike giving sideboard guides because most players will take them as 100% fact rather than suggestions. You need to know what each card in your sideboard will be sided in for, and when. Otherwise don’t play the card.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Finding Value in Gatecrash

Posted on March 1, 2013January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Gatecrash (GTC) has been available online for a couple of weeks now, and the market prices on cards from this set have settled down enough to make analysis possible. With the new, higher redemption fee attached to GTC, there should be an expectation of lower price floors and lower price ceilings for cards from this set. However, there is value in the set as a whole at the moment.

The Rating System

I used this rating system in the Fall to look at Return to Ravnica (RtR) mythic rares. I feel the system has utility and is a good way to assess whether or not cards are worth buying. Each mythic is followed by the current price and a rating, either Good Value, Fully Priced or Borderline. I also present a Top Overall Pick.

Good Value -- At current prices or in the given price range, this card is a buy and I expect it to see higher prices in the medium- to long-term. These cards are the best speculative targets from a value perspective. Some of these cards might never make a splash in competitive constructed formats, but the risk of loss, if bought at the suggested prices, is low.
Fully Priced -- This is the other end of the spectrum, where downside risks are high. Fully Priced cards might maintain a high price, but further gains are doubtful. Do not buy these at current prices to speculate on.
Borderline -- This is somewhere in the middle of the other two, with some possibility of moving up or down in price. For cards with this rating, further scrutiny is required beyond just the price. If you have a large amount of capital, buy some amount of these cards and scoop up more if the price falls.

All prices are taken from mtgotraders and are current as of February 28th, 2013.

The Guild Leaders

The GTC guild leaders have a much higher power level than their RtR counterparts. [card Isperia, Supreme Judge]Isperia[/card] and [card Rakdos, Lord of Riots]Rakdos[/card] are just about junk, [card Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord]Jarad[/card] and [card Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius]Niv-Mizzet[/card] have settled into the 2 to 3 tix range, while Trostani is the only guild leader to maintain a price higher than 3 tix. If there was a guild leader scrap between the RtR and GTC factions, my money would be on Obzedat, Ghost Council and friends.

Aurelia, the Warleader: This card has seen some application in Standard and is not far off in terms of stats from being a flying titan. Bonus points for being a legendary angel which broadens the appeal. The early price floor on this is around 4 tix, and at that price there's value in this card. Sigarda, Host of Herons is not a bad comparison and Aurelia seems to have more utility than that card. Buy this in the 4-4.5 tix range. Current price is 4.33 tix and Good Value.

Borborygmos Enraged: The Gruul leader sees fringe play as a reanimation target, but is priced at near junk levels. Current price is 0.82, stay away from this one unless it gets down to 0.5 tix or less. Current price is 0.82 tix and Borderline.

Lazav, Dimir Mastermind: Lazav would have fit in nicely with the RtR guild leaders and is priced accordingly. Buy this card at 1.0 tix or less. Current price is 1.3 tix and Borderline.

Obzedat, Ghost Council: Ghost Dad returns and the sequel hits hard! I don't think this card has found its home yet, but this hard-to-deal-with creature is a fine card to tap out for in controlling and aggressive strategies. However, it seems suited to be a two- or three-of at most, and the Orzhov shell doesn't appear to be quite there in comparison to other strategies in Standard at the moment. The priciest of all the leaders, it found an early price floor of around 10 tix. This card doesn't present much value. Current price is 11.37 tix and Fully Priced.

Prime Speaker Zegana: The Simic guild seems to be very under represented in Standard at the moment, and the effect on this card can potentially be quite powerful. Buy this card in the 2.5 to 3.5 tix range. Current price is 3.23 tix and Good Value.

The Fatties

Most of these will have a similar theme as they are all destined to see lower prices with the release of Dragon's Maze (DGM) when players are in need of tix. This will result in a flood of supply hitting the market and lower prices. Redemption will support the price of these a little, but they don't represent much value in GTC as a set. These are all junk and should only be picked up for 0.45 tix or less, which is a probable price once DGM hits. Prices have been dropping, but they should continue to drop into the Spring.

Deathpact Angel: Current price is 0.69 tix and Fully Priced.

Enter the Infinite: The fatty of sorceries, current price is 0.94 tix and Fully Priced.

Giant Adephage: Current price is 0.64 tix and Fully Priced.

Hellkite Tyrant: Current price is 0.63 tix and Fully Priced.

Lord of the Void: Current price is 0.74 tix and Fully Priced.

The Rest

Aurelia's Fury: Powerful X-spells are all over Standard but it's not clear whether this is one of them. The X's in Rakdos's Return and Sphinx's Revelation both translate into card advantage, while the X in this card is more situational and harder to judge. Dealing with three-toughness creatures is a theme of Standard in the early turns, and this card needs five mana to do that. Avoid this card. Current price is 4.28 tix and Fully Priced.

Domri Rade: This planeswalker was spoiled early and consequently didn't hit spoiler season with a lot of fanfare. It's currently the priciest card from GTC, and is appearing as a three-of or four-of in some Naya and Gruul builds in Standard, often the best card in the deck. I expect this card to at least maintain its price going forward, and should creep up to into the 15-20 tix range by the end of the year. Current price is 13.25 tix and Good Value.

Duskmantle Seer: Although this one was initially intriguing to me, at its price right now and lack of impact early on in Standard, I don't see much value in this card. Look for this one to drift down to 2 tix or less. At that price, it would be a borderline pick up. Current price is 3.96 tix and Fully Priced.

Gideon, Champion of Justice: During spoiler season, there was no consensus on this card as assessments on its power level were all over the map. It hasn't really found much application in Standard yet, but a planewalker can't be fully counted out this early on. It's price floor appears to be around 4 tix, buying this card at that price if you can is not a mistake. Current price is 4.34 tix and Borderline.

Master Biomancer: This creature doesn't really have the stats you want in a four drop, but it can block Flinthoof Boar and company and is non-legendary so playing four copies in a deck is possible. It has found an early price floor of around 4 tix but hasn't seen any success yet in Standard. Buy this at 3 tix or less, though this might not be possible until Dragon's Maze. Current price is 4.37 tix and Borderline.

Top Overall Pick

Build-around-me planeswalkers like Domri Rade have a history of not living up to their potential. Two of the recent planeswalkers of this type were Koth of the Hammer and Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas. The long term price trend on these cards while they were in Standard was down. They started at high levels of expectation and price, and never really found their footing in the Standard metagame. Fortunately Domri Rade is starting out at a much lower level of expectation, so historically this suggests the card has upside potential.

Also, the build-around aspect of Domri Rade revolves around creatures, a notable difference from Koth and Tezzeret. Creatures are being pushed to be exciting and powerful cards by WoTC. As a restriction, it's a good place to be. In comparison, Koth and Tezzeret both suffered due to their restrictions. Playing with Koth restricted you to basically playing with one colour, at a time in Standard when there were quality dual lands pushing the most powerful decks into two or more colours.

As for Tezzeret, WoTC seems to be cautious around how powerful it makes artifacts these days due to their ability to appear in any deck. Even though Tezzeret appeared in an artifact block, it never really made a big splash in Standard and it looks like it needs the artifact lands from the original Mirrodin block to be effective.

Usually going with the highest priced card as a top pick is a recipe for losses, but after testing a Naya build this week, I am convinced that Domri Rade is the real deal in Standard. I think this card will have a price trajectory similar to Deathrite Shaman. A deeper understanding and appreciation of Domri Rade as a card will occur over time, and it will eventually settle at a higher price. I feel this card is a strong buy at current prices. If it gets to 16 tix in the short term, I'd hold off buying until Dragon's Maze release events.

Insider: Casual Hits from Gatecrash & Return to Ravnica

Posted on February 28, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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From time to time I like to do a series on casual cards, as it is fun and also helps formulate the best cheap trade targets in the coming months.

What I do is highlight the cards that are cheap now, but which I believe will be popular casually. The goal here is not necessarily to find tournament-worthy cards, but the hits like Parallel Lives that will net you money over the long run.

I know cards like this don’t look sexy, but they’re a valuable part of a good grinder’s binder. And sometimes they come up big for you. For instance, for Avacyn Restored, I suggested stocking up on Exquisite Blood, a card that spiked with Gatecrash previews. I suggested stocking up on these because it completes the combo with Sanguine Bond, another popular casual card, and at the time they were available for a quarter or as a free throw-in in trades.

Stocking up on those made some serious money, and that’s what I look for in this series. Sure, sometimes you get lucky with spikes, but even if you don’t these popular casual cards are worth a few bucks each down the road, so getting them as throw-ins now is well worth your time. For instance, even uncommons like Mind Funeral are real money these days, so nothing should be overlooked.

And with the increase in redemption fees on MTGO, it should mean even less copies of these cards flooding the market, making the ceiling on these even higher.

So let’s dig in.

The Cards

Sphere of Safety

Remember when I said nothing is worth overlooking? This is there. Unlikely to ever be worth anything like Ghostly Prison, it does fit into casual enchantment or lockdown decks, which exist and make this worth saving from the bulk pile. Probably not looking at getting anything more than a quarter for these ever, but I’d be remiss to pass it over.

Grave Betrayal

Opinions varied on whether this card was even playable in Draft, but it will always be played in casual and/or EDH circles. People like reanimation and they like zombies, and this plays very well in multiplayer formats.

Necropolis Regent

This makes the list mainly because it’s a mythic, being a vampire, another popular casual tribe, helps. And despite people basically giving this away as a throw-in, it’s still worth almost $2. It’s easy to see this hitting $5-6 in a couple of years.

Pack Rat

If Marrow Gnawer hasn’t proved it, people love rats, and playable rats will make the cut in EDH theme decks every time. Worth throwing these into the “not-bulk” box, since that’s where they’ll be a while from now.

Utvara Hellkite

Another mythic currently worth about $2. This serves as a dragon “lord” of sorts, so it’s another one that could pull in some money down the road. I know you hear a lot about the “angels and dragons” casual crowd, but I promise they do exist, even if you rarely see them. I once had a pair of guys come into the store and trade at absurd prices for literally every dragon and angel I had, with both of them having their preferred tribe.

Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord

Of all the mythic leaders in this set, I believe Jarad has the most casual appeal, even though his price will be hurt by the fact he was in a sealed product. That lowers the ceiling, but this guy screams “build around me” in colors that can do exactly what he wants.

This explains why he is nearly $2 now and the promo a few bucks more than that.

Slaughter Games

This crosses over heavily into the competitive side, but it’s worth mentioning. This is hands-down the best version of Cranial Extraction I see being made, and the best version of a particular effect is always worth money (another reason why Supreme Verdict is a good pickup).

For Slaughter Games, this is a go-to combo killer in several formats already, and its price will slowly rise from here on out.

Trostani, Selesnya's Voice

Speaking of “build around me,” Trostani is both a good commander and an insane build-around card. Only see the price on this going up over time.

Chromatic Lantern

This is actually played less competitively than I guessed, but the fact remains this is going to be all over EDH for a long time to come, both as a solid accelerator and a great color-fixer in all decks, but especially those not dropping hundreds of dollars on a manabase.

Guildgates

With the push for Guildgates coming in Dragon’s Maze, the easy color-fixing these provide along with being searchable mean they’re likely to never be true bulk.

Angelic Skirmisher

Being an angel with a sweet ability, I can see this maintaining casual appeal for years to come. There are worse things to grab out of the bulk bin.

The Primordial Cycle

While some of these are clearly better in EDH than others, all have some appeal and likely won’t be bulk. That said, I think Sylvan Primordial is the best bet among the bunch. It’s a long way from Vorinclex, but it’s at least in the same ballpark. And Vorinclex is pushing $7 these days.

Crypt Ghast

Personally I’m excited about this one. Nirkana Revenant is more expensive than anyone predicted at the time (though I did say it was a good pickup), and this is the little buddy of the Revenant.

Standard play is affecting this a little, but people still give it away cheap, and it’s a great one to hide away in the back of the binder.

Ogre Slumlord

Remember what we learned about rats and rat lords? Apply that here.

Biovisionary

Card is obviously terrible in Constructed play, but that doesn’t mean people haven’t been trying it. In casual circles, that’s not going to stop.

High Priest of Penance

People love them some Vindicate, and the mere reminder of that has kept this from becoming bulk. Not only does it have fringe applications in Standard, the Vindicate factor means it’s not going to be forgotten going forward.

Mind Grind

Along with Crypt Ghast, the top of the line in this set. Glimpse the Unthinkable is worth tons of money and so is Mind Funeral, and this will likely join them, even if it takes some time.

Spark Trooper

People love Ball Lightning, which always trades well despite being reprinted a million times. This will join its cousin in the future as trading quite well to the right player, even if the price doesn’t go very high.

Illusionist's Bracers

Rings of Brighthearth is a respectable EDH card, and the Bracers will join it over time.

Casual Cards as Throw-ins

That’ll do for this edition. Remember, I’m not telling you to rush out and trade for all of these, but there are plenty of times where you’re looking for a throw-in to complete a deal, and this gives you something to work from when you’re in that position. With a little patience, this makes me real money over time and will do the same for you.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Recent Market Inflation

Posted on February 27, 2013January 17, 2022 by Jared Elick

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I've heard a lot of people stating that we speculators ruin or crash the Magic market. I started a thread on the forums to find what exactly was meant by that. As far as I can tell, they were totally incorrect. We may exacerbate some sellouts, but we certainly don't cause them. In fact, we fix the problem created by the sellout. In the following paragraphs, I hope I can explain this in further detail.

That is not to say that we have never seen artificial inflation. We saw someone buy the internet out of Aluren based on insider information. It took a while to find out why. But what we did was not increase it. What we did was find copies of a $25 card at $4, and purchase them for resale. We then re-listed them for fast sale.

When I am selling a card into the hype, I am always undercutting, and most other speculators do too. Because of the fact that many of us sell on TCG and eBay, we are able to lower a price way faster than we can increase it. When Aluren shot up to $24.46, its highest ever, we started selling them for less, to flip that quick profit. When I list a $24 card for $19 to sell it quickly, that drives the price down. That store was going to increase it to $20 anyway, or get bought out by a player who saw a card way too cheap. Now, we see $12.69 TCG mid.

See, it dropped down to an acceptable level. — Photo Courtesy of MTGStocks.com

We are seeing some amazing overnight increases. However, people are entirely misinterpreting why we see these increases and characterizing them as a problem. I contest that there is a reasonable explanation for each increase, and that we help the situation, not hurt it. I would like to go over a few examples given on the forum.

Aluren -- This was artificial inflation, and was the first we saw. However, the card is down to $12.69 due to sellers constantly undercutting each other to get rid of them while they decrease.

Daybreak Coronet -- This was a new deck everyone wanted to play. Prior to it gaining popularity, as I was told, SCG and TCG combined had less than 20 play sets.

Jace, Memory Adept -- This card was being played more than Jace, Architect of Thought, and then an infinite combo came out which caused the card to increase quickly due to casual demand.

Serra Ascendant –- Martyr Proc, the once-cheapest deck in Modern, runs this card. It spiked upon the announcement of Modern FNMs, but was already steadily increasing prior to this due to an increased Modern player base. This card certainly has EDH/casual appeal too. a 6/6 for 1? Yes please.

Sylvan Scrying -– An uncommon used in a Modern deck that is both powerful and popular among casual/FNM players. The deck gained popularity, and because of this, we saw a need for cards that most people new to the game did not have.

Aven Mindcensor –- Hurts a lot of Modern decks. G/W and B/W Hatebears became popular and the card started selling. Demand increased, stock stayed low -- the card went up.

Marrow-Gnawer -– More rats were printed. Casual players love rats, dragons, angels, and other odd creature types. I've had three requests for Relentless Rats in the last week. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an increase on the demand for those, since people want 20-35 of them. Marrow-Gnawer is not exactly a card you can find in every binder, and as those of us who searched learned, you can't find them in every shop, either.

Oblivion Stone -– See: Sylvan Scrying. This card also was an inarguable EDH stable, which helped it increase. Not a ton of copies were available. I was only able to find eight copies when I went to buy them.

Spellskite -– Same as O-Stone, except that this card is necessary to fight multiple decks. It had a higher stock, but it goes in the board of any deck, and is a 2-4-of in every Urza deck.

Chains of Mephistopheles –- How many copies of these have you seen? There were almost none in every store. This is why it spiked. Buying ten play sets was buying out the internet.

Gyre Sage –- A card from a recent set that is sold out in most LGS, and was considered a bulk rare, was noticed as one of the best ramp spells in Standard. I can't imagine why people think this was artificial.

Shallow Grave -– Extremely old card with low stock. People need copies of it for a deck, and they are hard to find. If every copy is bought out at $3, no seller in their right mind is going to list at $3.

Hall of the Bandit Lord –- We are still waiting for information on this one to come in. However, a quick search on TCGPlayer tells me this is a fairly popular EDH land. Look at other lands from CoK. Most have gone up to $6-8. This could be more artificial inflation, similar to Aluren, but the card's price will keep going down from here due to people selling the copies they got at $1.50, and undercutting every lowest seller.

Thrun, the Last Troll –- This increase is from many people replacing Bloodbraid Elf in Modern Jund, the deck that once took up 37% of the meta in the Modern format. The Modern format, again, being one whose player base has quadrupled in the past six months. Also, this is an EDH card and a casual all-star.

The Speculator Effect

Guys, look at any graph of a card that shoots up. You'll see what looks like an unreasonable price change. Well, we go in, pick up the cheap copies, and we sell them at a profit –- but we unload quick, and we drive the price back down. This is win-win for everyone but the buyer who needs the card.

The store gets a sale, that gives them a profit, based on what they paid for the card. We get a profit, buying them and re-listing at a much higher price. The card spikes up due to demand, the players spend their money on the cards to play in events, and we push the price back to a reasonable level. The best we can do is buy them, and undercut for a quick sale on eBay or TCG. We help lower the price quickly.

Without us, these spikes would stay high. If only card shops sold the card, Aluren may be $19.99, because people will pay it. When I list a copy at $12, and someone undercuts me with $11.99, and the card is $10 on eBay, no store can get that much for it. So, they lower their prices.

Please feel free to prove me wrong. I am the type that loves to hear any factual points that shut down my opinions. However, as I think I've illustrated, we see potential in a card, and we make money driving prices down when we sell it. If anything, the Magic community should love us for making that card go back down when it should, and at an accelerated rate.

So, until next time, I leave you with this note: Buy Abrupt Decay. $6 is too low, it's a $10 card that is played in every format and is sometimes splashed just to deal with troublesome permanents.

Sideboarding with MUC Delver

Posted on February 27, 2013February 26, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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As a refresher, my MUC Delver list that I wrote about last week can be found here.

When I write I generally don’t spend much if any time talking about sideboarding. Part of this is because from what I’ve seen and experienced that for whatever reason most people tend to take a ton of liberties with their own sideboards. That said, my MUC Delver list was very much constructed as a 75 card entity. There are a few slots in the maindeck that end up falling short in a number of matchups and having enough cards to bring in over them is essential. Gitaxian Probe and Vapor Snag are frequently boarded out, and having cards to bring in over them is essential. That in mind, let’s get right down into it.

The Matchups

UR Post

In my experience the UR Post matchup is very favorable, but you have to understand what’s important. They have a finite number of spells that actually matter and saving your counterspells for those cards is clutch. Mulldrifter, Rolling Thunder and Ulamog's Crusher are cards that must be dealt with, and unless you see an otherwise unfettered path to victory, then blowing a counterspell on anything else is probably just wrong. It’s tempting to protect your creatures or to counter draw spells but it’s usually just wrong in pre-board games. Just stop them from casting actual business and eventually one of your creatures will stick and get them.

OUT

Most of this stuff is pretty obvious. A Post deck can pretty much always pay for Daze and bouncing Mulldrifters is generally pretty poor. I have won games by doing so but it just shouldn’t be your post board plan. I like to leave the single Curse of Chains in so that I don’t always need to counter Ulamog's Crusher and it’s also nice to stick it on the occasional Mulldrifter that you lose the counter war over.

Hyrdoblast can be kind of interesting as your opponent will be bringing in Pyroblast, so you’ll often be using it to fight counter wars rather than countering removal spells. Remember, all it takes is one or two creatures sticking to win, so there’s no need to throw counters away on removal.

Things are slightly different against UB Post as we don’t get Hydroblast, but the matchup is still quite good. Instead we board in the Hindering Touches and leave in a Vapor Snag which will primarily be used to bounce our own creatures in response to removal.

Sometimes winning this matchup comes down to some fairly abstract lines. Here’s a screencap from a game that I’m particularly proud of:

In this game I took advantage of Ulamog’s Crusher’s “must attack” drawback to undie my Stormbound Geist and get my opponent for exactly five over two turns, saving my Counterspell for his Mulldrifter that I might have just lost to.

Monogreen Stompy

I’d say that game one is very favorable. They’re playing a bunch of small dudes and trying to pump them for the win and you’re playing Vapor Snag along with Spire Golems.

Rancor on a Ledgewalker can be problematic, but even that isn’t the end of the world. Just remember not to be too aggressive and that blocking is your friend.

OUT

The Stompy player is going to board into Scattershot Archers and try to play the control in post board games. The Coral Net will either kill the Archer outright or stop them from doing much of anything until you can get a Serrated Arrows online. There’s only one in the list currently, but Echoing Truth on your own Arrows after the last counter is removed is a big game.

My list is built in a way that a single Archer won’t hurt too much, but they have four copies of it and four copies of Quirion Ranger to supplement them. Deal with these guys and this matchup is a cake walk.

Monored

Pretty much all of the monored that I’ve seen recently has been Goblins. I’d say that the matchup is quite favorable considering that we have good blockers and counterspells. Once again blocking is your friend. Grind them out and eventually you’ll find yourself in a completely dominant position, even if that means dipping to one life first.

OUT

Our game plan doesn’t really change post board, we just become better at executing it. Never leave yourself dead to Goblin Bushwhacker and try to maintain a healthy life total and everything will be peachy.

Temporal Fissure

The Temporal Fissure matchup was basically unwinnable before Delver was a card, which obviously suggests that being aggressive is important. They have insane inevitability and we have no actual removal for their familiars. Play a solid tempo game and you can win, but keep too slow of a hand and you’ll find yourself twiddling your thumbs while your entire board is returned to hand.

OUT

Hindering Touch is pretty strong, but it doesn’t outright win. When the Fissure deck goes off it can often generate an insane amount of mana and it will frequently be able to play a Mnemonic Wall to rebuy Temporal Fissure on the same turn it is cast. Maybe even cast the Fissure as well. For this reason it’s still important to be very aggressive, but the Hindering Touches do give us a couple turns more time.

This matchup bounces between games that are unwinnable and unloseable depending on draws, so mulliganing is probably the most important decision that you’ll make all game.

Affinity

Affinity is among the toughest matchups that you’ll encounter playing MUC. They spew out 4/4s like it’s nobody’s business and trying to block them is hell. Killing them quickly is essential. There are a few different directions an affinity player can go with their build, but we’ll basically board the same against all of them.

OUT

While Serrated Arrows doesn’t exactly kill 4/4s it does make them manageable for a Spire Golem. The Curse of Chains is obviously and the Hydroblast is for the inevitable Galvanic Blast and the occasional Atog.

Coral Net is technically an option here to deal with Carapce Forger and the like, but unlike Scattershot Archer a single Carapace Forger can just kill you, so discarding a card every turn isn’t a huge issue for the affinity player. Thougthcast also makes a mockery of this plan.

This matchup is tough in that you need to be both aggressive and controlling. They’re just very good at killing you. I wouldn’t mind having a third Curse of Chains available even if I brought it in against nothing else, and exploring that over the third Coral Net on board is certainly an option.

Monoblue Mirrors

I love a good MUC mirror, and this one doesn’t differ much from ordinary control mirrors. Most of your opponents are going to have Ninjas, so being mindful of that is important, but for the most part having four Spire Golem is going to be completely insane for my list as most other MUC lists have two or fewer. By going bigger than other MUC lists you completely embarrass their Cloud of Faeries and ultimately win the long game.

OUT

Sometimes your opponent will come out of the gates quickly, but you’re going to want to be pretty conservative if you can help it. Never run your haymakers (Spire Golem, Arrows) into a counterspell if you can help it. Probe is invaluable in this regard, and Dispel helps a ton.

Patience is a virtue and trumps are more important than tempo. Be like the tortoise. Go bigger and stronger and let them see why going faster isn’t the play in blue mirrors.

That basically sums up the most popular matchups you’ll encounter in Pauper. There are of course a good amount of other decks, but they’re mostly fringe and the principles from the matchups I cover carry over into other matchups. I guess that I’ve played against an unreasonable amount of Tortured Existence lately but this isn’t indicative of the actual metagame and your game plan literally consists of them not drawing Tortured Existence, so I don’t have a ton of insight for that one.

As always I’m more than happy to answer any questions. Next week I’ll be going over a pretty sweet Modern brew that I’ll be bringing to the Des Moines PTQ this weekend. Wish me luck and thanks for reading!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Touch of the Eternal — Scruples in a Scrupleless World

Posted on February 26, 2013February 27, 2013 by David Schumann

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Today's article will focus on scruples and ethics in regards to MTG finance and speculation. There are some different approaches to MTG trading and finance and it's important for everyone who trades actively to ground themselves back on the isle of morality every once in awhile. Now this is by no means a black and white subject. There's a lot of gray and that's why this issue needs to be considered by every trader.

Helping the Newcomers

When you go to big events like SCG Opens and GPs you expect a lot of sharks and dealers, but the bigger the event the more likely you'll have a lot of newer players too. At GP Charlotte I was sitting across from a guy whose gold rush envelope had Ancestral Recall (never mind that I'm the one that handed it to him and could have easily given him the one I kept, which had a foil Ravnica common in it). He had no idea what the card was as he had started playing three weeks before and just saw the GP as an exciting event he came to play for fun.

Luckily, he showed those around him what he got and one guy pulled his phone out and showed the guy the price. I was torn emotionally, as I had a 50/50 shot of getting it and simply gave him that envelope, so I was pretty depressed at first. But then I thought about how the community around him informed him and didn't try to shark him (so good job MTG community), which lightened my mood a bit. But the point is there are still lots of new players who come to these events and similarly to your local game store. It is our job as a community to treat these players fairly.

The "well they should know the price" mentality has got to stop. This is just a poor way of justifying skeezy behavior. I understand that we are all trying to come out ahead and make money, but the difference is we can do it speculating, which means investing in cards we think will go up at some point. This is the kind of MTG finance I want to be a part of.

I wish I could say I've always avoided temptation when finding a hidden gem in someone's collection which they severely undervalued, but sadly even I must admit to having fallen to it before. And when I did, I felt bad. Not just immediately afterwards, but for several weeks. So much so that I have given the people I traded with extra cards to help justify my own guilt, which was sometimes a way to appease it, but I don't know if I damaged that person's desire to trade indefinitely or not. We as traders need to accept that guilt we feel is our brains' way of telling us we're doing something wrong and need to correct it.

I admit this because that's the first step in overcoming this sort of mentality. It's easy to play dumb and say "gee I didn't know it was worth that much" if they do look it up, but if someone asks you what their card is worth, tell them. If you don't really know and can look it up, do so. We were all new players at some point and chances are everyone's been ripped off by someone in the past. Remember how it felt when you got home and realized the card you thought was $2 dollars was worth $20. Every time you shark a new player you run the risk of turning them off of MTG or at the very least off of trading, and you hurt the community as a whole for a minor profit.

Market Manipulation

Another subject I want to discuss is market manipulation. This subject is becoming quite a hot topic recently as cards like Thrun, the Last Troll, Shallow Grave, Bloodhall Ooze, and Hall of the Bandit Lord have exploded in price in a few short days. Sometimes there's justification for jumps (such as Boros Reckoner), but more often than not someone is trying to corner the market with the sole purpose of buying tons and selling into the hype.

This is different from speculation (which is what most of us on QS do) for two main reasons. When you speculate on a card you understand its potential and you feel that it is currently undervalued or will increase over time. When you corner the market your sole goal is to generate hype for a card so you can sell into that hype. This is pure market manipulation which in the stock world is illegal and banks heavily on the lemming-like behavior of the masses. It's unethical and dangerous as it leads to stores cracking down on legitimate speculation as individual stores can't tell the difference between long-term speculation and market manipulation; they see one person buying them out (or buying a lot) of one card and don't know what they're up to.

When you speculate you take on the risk of the card not panning out or losing value, which (to me) justifies any profits you may make doing so. However, when you manipulate the market you take on very little risk as you have no intention of holding onto the cards, but simply want to jump the price up by creating artificial demand and unloading before the market has time to correct itself.

What scares me the most is that so many players don't see this as wrong. They feel that because other people just jump on the bandwagon it's their own fault. While I do agree that one should always research a card's potential before blindly going in on a speculation target, that is not actually justification for manipulating the market for your own benefit. I truly hope that people on QS are not the ones behind some of these jumps because this sort of tactic will eliminate the ability to speculate altogether. More stores are placing four-card limits on orders, which means that in order to speculate one will have to do multiple orders (if they'll even allow that) and pay more for shipping and lose out on ethical profits derived from properly recognizing a card's potential.

So for all those who enjoy sharking trades or market manipulation; please take some time to actually think about the consequences of your actions.

Jason’s Archives: A Word from Admiral Ackbar

Posted on February 26, 2013February 26, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Not all of my readers are QS regulars -- readers of financial articles, speculators, etc. However, today's article is going to focus on something financially-relevant a bit more than usual, but that's not to say it doesn't affect a wide range of people. I want to talk about a phenomenon that happens from time to time and what you can do to be prepared.

What You Learn Watching Coverage

I was in my LGS over the weekend, hanging out and trading a little on a day where there was no real event scheduled but everyone had congregated anyway. We had the SCG Live coverage on the TV and I saw a new kind of reanimator deck, allegedly designed by Caleb Durward. Watching Caleb play Standard Reanimator against QS' Mike Lanigan at the SCG Open in Cinci, I can say with authority the man loves his Reanimator.

The allure of paying two to four mana for a huge, game-winning creature draws in players new and old, and players are finding new ways to make the most of the creatures they get. Durward's new brew featured fun new tech like using Children of Korlis to regain the life paid to draw cards with Griselbrand or cast Reanimate and it featured an obscure rare that has been worth selling to buylists for a while but has gotten limited exposure in the Legacy meta: Shallow Grave. When I saw that card cast it spurred a discussion about when you're allowed to change the order of your graveyard and what exactly you can target with Shallow Grave, but I didn't scramble to pick any copies up. Shallow Grave was a good rare from a bad set (in my opinion) and sat at about $3 for most of the last decade.

When I woke up one morning and play sets of Shallow Grave were on eBay for $80 I had no one to blame but myself. Shallow Grave is useful in EDH which is a format that has to utilize a wider array of redundant spells than its other constructed counterparts due to the singleton restriction. Shallow Grave proved its worth in Legacy Reanimator. Even Modern has showed us how useful instant-speed reanimation spells are like in the case of Goryo's Vengeance, a card used to animate an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] with its shuffle trigger on the stack. Instant-speed reanimate spells are even less fair than their sorcery-speed counterparts in that regard. When I saw Shallow Grave, I saw another Goryo's Vengeance -- a card I bought into under a dollar because Gerry T was on the precipice of making it real in Modern and later sold at around $5, netting myself a tidy profit of around $3.50 per copy all told.

I didn't have any copies of Shallow Grave when I saw you could ask for $20 apiece with a straight face, and I suppose I have no one to blame but myself. This price is a few weeks from collapsing, but in the meantime, people feel like the card is worth the $15-$20 price tag (The eBay completed BIN price on this guy is higher than TCG Player right now which is pretty rare but more common in cases like this of a sudden inflation). If you have any copies lying around, you may be able to sell them on a TCG Player seller account or eBay account in the near term. I missed the boat on this guy even though I was watching the coverage when I saw the tech revealed and had ample time to buy in around $3 but I'm not upset. I didn't see this surpassing Goryo's Vengeance, especially given that Shallow Grave can't be played in Modern.

A Word from the Admiral

Yea, great, but what's he talking about? If you ask me, it's probably Hall of the Bandit Lord.

Hall of the Bandit Lord was a bulk rare last week. Useful for giving creatures like Kuldotha Forgemaster haste in one Legacy deck, Hall is a card that sees extremely limited play and has equally limited appeal. That's why it puzzled people when it spiked to $10 this week. The QS forums were abuzz with discussion about what could be causing this spike. Elsewhere on the interwebs, discussion was more focused on where copies of this card could be located for the pre-spike price so that the lucky purchaser could jam their copy up for sale on eBay for $10 and reap that sweet, sweet profit juice.

If you look in the QS forums for the thread about this card, it's full of phrases like "someone trying to manipulate the market" and there is only one post from an insider indicating they intend to pick copies up, and only then because he could get them at $0.25. As a whole, QS insiders rolled their eyes and dismissed this card whereas the thread regarding Shallow Grave was a bit livelier and the opinions expressed leaned less toward the perception of an inflated price.

You'll notice that this week's Insider e-mail blast regarding Bloodhall Ooze omitted both of these cards. Did QS really miss the boat on two cards that spiked very severely in the last week? And could Admiral Ackbar be wrong about which of these cards is a trap?

Check One More Place Before You Buy

Retail websites employ people who know about Magic. They'd have to, right? Well, people who know about Magic follow Magic trends, not just in the market but also at the play tables. If you're a QS insider, not only do you have access to the forums where we all discuss whether we think these card spikes are rooted in reality, you also have access to the Trader Tools site. Trader Tools is more handy than just a plain price guide for the purposes of picking cards up either in retail stores or in trades because it focuses on the buylist prices. These are the prices that these savvy individuals to whom I referred at the beginning of this paragraph are paying to pick these cards up, usually from people like me and probably you. If I buy a card at a quarter that hit $20 and I don't think it will be $20 for long, wouldn't I be better off sending 30 copies to a buylist for $10 a pop to get them all gone at once in ten minutes and therefore reduce my risk to near zero? If the card stays high I still made a ton of profit and I can make like Corbin Hosler and leave 5% for the next guy (quite a bit more in this case) and if the card tanks, I minimized my exposure and got out while the getting was good.

According to Trader Tools, only Strikezone and Card Kingdom respectively are moving on either Hall of the Bandit Lord or Shallow Grave. Nearly every other buylist is buying both around a dollar (which I suppose is a small move in the case of Hall of the Bandit Lord whose buy price was $0.25 for a long time) and Strikezone won't pick up that dog-eared copy you found in the dollar box at some obscure LGS -- they buy near mint only.

So maybe buylists aren't as savvy as I thought! If most sites aren't even paying $5 on Shallow Grave, which sells on eBay for $20 (an $86 play set sold yesterday!) how do they expect to get any copies in? I have no incentive to sell to them. They should get their act together and update those prices so they can get in on this action.

Well, let's test the hypothesis about buylists not being savvy. If we type a card like Karn Liberated, one whose growth is tied to performance and which has maintained a high price for a while, into Trader Tools, we see a very different situation. Karn spiked this month as well and while it's being sold around $30 TCG Mid, it's being bought in the low $20s. That indicates a high degree of desire on the part of the dealers to get copies of the card in stock to sell and a degree of confidence in the price. The entire process of noticing demand, changing the buylist, soliciting for copies, having a player notice the new price, having the player mail the stuff in, getting the cards graded, sorted and put up for sale on their website could take weeks. A change in the buylist price indicates their confidence that they have more than a matter of weeks to move the card at the new price.

Hall and Grave aren't up on a lot of buylists and that indicates a low degree of confidence in the price on the part of most retail sites. Even worse, the fact that most sites are just saying they're sold out of Hall of the Bandit Lord but Hotsauce Games having copies in stock at the new price has lead to speculation that they were the ones who tried to manipulate the market. You'll excuse most sites for not bothering. You have a small window to move copies of a card there's an unknown amount of demand for and if you do manage to have copies in stock you get accused of being the one who pumped the card up. Sounds like a lose-lose scenario.

To my mind, there is no better gauge of the viability of a card as a pickup than buylist prices. Even eBay is misleading. Sure, a playset sold for $86, but if you go by BIN completed listings --a great metric for measuring real prices as someone with confidence in this week's number as an actual price will put it as BIN rather than try to milk the most out of the card in an auction-- roughly a copy per day is moving. Not so great for a card that's supposedly red hot (compare it to Boros Reckoner where multiple copies sell an hour).

eBay will show you what the opportunistic among us think they can get in the short term and also what the gullible are willing to pay (Remember those $60 Land Taxes?) but only sustainable high prices indicate the health of a card as a pickup and I gauge that by the number of BIN sales rather than the price in auctions (although auctions have merit in that they gauge the price the market is willing to pay for a card and they inform the BIN prices).

However, if you want to take a quick opinion poll about the health of a card as a pickup from a large group of experts, check a lot of buylist prices. I don't get paid extra for saying this (I should!) but I like the Trader Tools site QS offers its insiders because it gives you a long list of buylists at a glance. The free version gives just the highest buy price (but not whose it is) which can be misleading if only one site is buying into hype (like in the case of Hall of the Bandit Lord and Shallow Grave) so if you're an insider, take advantage of this tool. There are other sites out there that do similar things but I don't know enough about any of them to talk about them since I have Trader Tools and I'm comfortable with that.

So which of the two cards we mentioned today is a trap? If you ask me, based on the data from eBay and buylists, I'd say they both are. If you already have copies, move them, but I wouldn't pay above last month's prices on either card because I have no confidence in these prices sustaining. In the future, check how many eBay BIN listings are selling per day, check how many buylists are moving, and above all else, use your gut. If a card spikes, seemingly out of nowhere (remember Cosmic Larva) then you needn't concern yourself. If a card proves itself (like in the case of Bloodhall Ooze) then you'll likely get an Insider Blast from us, and you'll likely see the signs I said to look for anyway. Don't fall for traps, don't buy into hype and whatever you do, don't forget to stop and think. The alternative is sitting on a box full of Master of the Pearl Trident.

Bonus -- An Entire Second Article

I wrote the equivalent of two articles already, so why stop now? I still have to talk about the GP(s!) and SCG Opens this weekend and wait a minute, this is going to be really easy.

It appears SCG ran side events at GP Charlotte, which was sealed, and GP Charlotte was sealed (but you knew that already). This means we get to talk about GP Quebec City and we're done. We're in the home stretch, don't quit reading on me now!

GP Quebec City Results

Some people felt like missing the largest GP in the history of ever to go play Standard (ew) in Quebec City (EWWWW...unless, you know, you flew there. I like to drive, so count me out.) If you really like Standard and/or hate Sealed it probably wasn't the worst play. GP regulars like Reid Duke and Tzu Ching Kuo made the trip and made top eight so the event was likely a good time. Also, I bet day two didn't start out with a single elimination round, followed by a single elimination round, followed by a single elimination round, followed by a grueling trip to the top of the aggro crag followed by 30 miles on the bike, a 10 mile swim and a 12 mile run, followed by draft like in Charlotte.

I saw a thread on Reddit talking about how the meta was shifting away from Naya and I had to laugh. With Naya winning the SCG Open last weekend as well as the Standard GP this weekend, the meta couldn't be shifting from Naya less. Brad Nelson was a big proponent of Nico Christiansen's winning list, touting Giant Growth as a real card in a meta that is still relying heavily on Searing Spear to get things done. I like Ghor-Clan Rampager in that role as well, but with a much lower curve, there isn't room for too many of those. Boros Elite makes an appearance in Christiansen's deck as well, and even Experiment One is in on the action because he's a human for some reason. A while back I said to pick up Mayor of Avabruck because he was a great pickup at a dollar. I anticipated he would get a lot of play as a 4-of in humans decks (I was right) and that his price could easily hit $5 accordingly (I was wrong there, but I really have no idea how or why). If you listened to me, you can sell those copies for $1.50 to a buylist. Take that profit and go buy yourself half of a value menu cheeseburger. You earned it!

Ok, so being a promo card probably hurts Mayor's viability as well as his being a flip card and therefore in a lot more boosters than the average rare from the set. Still, these trade out at around $4 and if you want to win a lot of games of Magic, you could do worse than jamming 4 Mayors in a deck and going to beatface town. Mayor is a real skill-testing card (more-so than Huntmaster because the benefits you get from flipping him are a bit more subtle) but the theme of the deck is "turn 'em sideways" so you'll likely not be too mentally exhausted to get the most out of your depiction of an elected official who betrays the public's trust by tearing off his shirt and scampering off into the night to eat children in their cribs.

I like seeing Frontline Medic here, because that card was an odd case indeed. His mere printing made people shy a bit away from Bonfire, eschewing the spell in favor of cards like Mizzium Mortars. Mortars proved pretty bad in a format with Boros Reckoner abounding (not that Bonfire was much better) and the meta just sort of ignored Frontline Medic. Until people switch to Mutilate (it's looking like they never will, relegating my Mutilates to the same "box of failure" as my Master of the Pearl Trident copies), Frontline Medic is a very good inclusion. Did I mention he makes blocking miserable and he's a human? This card does it all, and he's such a cheap pickup I wouldn't be surprised if his inclusion in more human lists makes his price inch up a bit. That said, the redemption hammer is about to come down so I wouldn't get into much Gatecrash stuff right now.

Enough harping on the winning deck, what else do we have?

Thomas Holzinger made my day by playing The Aristocrats which not only makes me smile because it reminds me of a dirty joke but because I think the deck is bonkers. My version runs Blood Artist and Assemble the Legion, but I can't fault people for wanting to run Skirsdag High Priest. Those demon tokens are just GG for most decks. I like Sorin in the board of this deck because I don't want him all the time and I cut him altogether in my brewing. Sublime Archangel is tech here, and it likely leads to at least one stolen game on the back of a massive swing with a flier or an unblocklable Cartel Aristocrat. I like two Zealous Conscripts, especially given how many sac outlets the deck has. Good times.

Watching a friend of mine get his face caved in at FNM makes me want to shy away from the new Reanimator build piloted by Tzu Ching Kuo, but his addition of Huntmaster will likely lead to fewer games where you do nothing and look like a monkey doing it. Mulch, Mulch, Salvage, Looting I'm dead is not how I want to spend a game of Magic. The combo, an amusing interaction between Burning-Tree Emissary, Undercity Informer and Angel of Glory's Rise to mill your opponent to death is a bona fide clock, but cards like Rest in Peace and Blood Artist give the deck fits. I like Burning-Tree Emissary in an actual combo deck finally. I saw combo potential all over this card when it was spoiled, but, taking Saito's lead, most people were content to use him to put themselves in topdeck mode starting on turn 2 when they emptied their hand, chaining them when possible and ending the chain with a Flinthoof Boar or Volcanic Strength. Angel of Glory's Rise was already a card, and the other combo components are uncommon so there is no financial opportunity here, really. Just be prepared for this pile at FNM (or top eight of a GP, apparently).

I don't hate the Wolfbitten Captive that Wenzel Krautmann ran in his version of Naya Humans, but I wouldn't pick these up. Still, it's a 4/4 with Mayor out and a pump, and when both are flipped, this guy is even deadlier. Not a bad one-drop at all, and it even pumps Champion of the Parish.

Lots of Jund here, but one of them was Jund Zombies. I don't know how good that deck is in the regular meta, but seeing it do well reminds me that Lotleth Troll is absurdly underpriced right now (along with Trostani, Armada Wurm and Abrupt Decay, although that last one is inching up already) and if someone will take buylist on Troll, pick up X copies. He won't stay as cheap as he is IMO.

Other than that, there were few surprises here. Not a lot of financial opportunity this week, but that can all change. The Reanimator deck shows that players like to innovate and I'd keep an eye on MODO if you want to stay abreast of potential changes to the meta. MODO is generally a week or two ahead of paper due to the frequency of events there and while a lot of tech from MODO never materializes on the "paper" side, few innovations hit "paper" without originating there.

OK, I'm Done

Thanks for reading the whole thing. I'll be back next week to talk results and whatever else I feel like. Until then, watch those buylists!

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