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Insider: Chad’s Pre-release Primer

Posted on September 27, 2012January 17, 2022 by Chad Havas

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The time has finally come. Enough drooling over spoilers and time to get our hands on Return to Ravnica for the first time. Hopefully, you've got plans to visit a local Pre-release this weekend so you can get your first crack at these cards and start making trades before card prices start shifting dramatically.

This pre-release will be different than most because you'll be choosing a guild when you register and you'll receive the corresponding guild pack. Your guildpack will include a pre-release foil matching your guild, one guild booster pack and 5 (normal) Return to Ravnica boosters. You'll be allowed to include your pre-release foil in your deck, which is not typical, and your guild booster will contain cards with the watermark of your guild and mono-colored cards that match your guild. Also to note, if your guild pack contains a mythic it will be the guild leader, and no other mythic. This means an Izzet guild booster cannot contain a Jace, for example.

Considering a strict financial outlook, Golgari holds the most value in its Rare slot, which includes both Lotleth Troll and Abrupt Decay. Averaging the watermarked-rares, Golgari is far above the rest of the pack from a price standpoint, and is the clear choice if you only want to maximize your chance of opening good value in that guild booster.

I personally will be selecting Izzet. The reason being, is I'm guaranteed to have a Hypersonic Dragon in my pool and I feel my chances of winning significant prize in my pre-release are greatly increased knowing this card will be in my deck from the onset. Not to mention the rares of Mizzium Mortars, Mercurial Chemister and Cyclonic Rift will be absolutely devastating in sealed format, should I be so lucky to open them.

So, sure, select a guild, build a deck and battle. That's the easy part. Remember the pre-release will bring tons of folk to your LGS you don't typically see, and many of them are looking to trade for any of the new cards they aren't able to open in the event. Keep in mind the theme we've been noticing over the past few weeks. The average value of a rare is still astoundingly high, (Over $4.50 at the time of this writing) and will have to come down. This means you should be graciously trading away any key cards you find for staples that will survive the rotation, or sleeper picks you feel may be undervalued from the current set.

Shocklands

These are ranging between $12-20 right now, with Overgrown Tomb topping the list in anticipation of G/B Zombies in Standard. With sealed PTQ season around the corner, and this being one of the most anticipated sets in recent memory, I just don't see non-mythics holding that kind of price for very long. This is one of the first items on my chopping block if I open some. We should be waiting until the most coveted colored shocklands hit $10-12, not the least desirable ones.

Abrupt Decay

This sorcery has already hit $20 on StarCityGames.com and using the same logic with the Shocklands, I'm liking this card a lot more around $12. It's color combination is actually quite restrictive, and just wont be played in enough decks to warrant that kind of price tag. That doesn't mean people won't pay it. Get rid of it while you can.

Innistrad Lands

While the prices on these have begun to climb as people have wised up over the summer, you should find people overly willing to trade these away to get Shocklands. I have no problem giving people lower estimates on their trade fodder when they are looking for newer cards because they are simply so hard to find at Pre-release. Leverage this as best you can. For example Woodland Cemetary is currently sold out on StarCityGames at $15, while Overgrown Tomb is at $20. I would be trading 2-for-1 if a trade partner wanted my Tomb, as I am the one holding the new hot item. While this seems a bit extreme, most players aren't going to value their Innistrad duals as high as they should, holding their price memory under $10.

But I want new cards!

When push comes to shove, many of you may want to get your hands on some new cards too. Cards I'm looking to pick up are Jace, Architect of Thought (Which in my limited testing has been much better than I anticipated) and Chromatic Lantern. Trying to avoid the pitfalls mentioned above. I'll be looking to unload my Bonfire of the Damned for Ravnica cards. This $50 mythic just had the perfect format for it to flourish, and really can't get any higher. Trading it off for the Ravnica cards I feel are still undervalued, or ones I simply can't wait to have is a good strategy.

New Standard

I've been testing a handful of new decks for the upcoming format, and it's clear to me we'll have a new control deck arise. What that deck will look like will depend on how the aggro decks come out of the gate. In any case, I expect to see at least 3 copies of Jace, Architect of Thought along side his best pal Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. This is a pretty devastating combo, especially when supported with Wrath effects and draw spells. That being said, Tamiyo has dipped as low as $10-12 on EBay, and that just can't be correct. She's an extremely powerful Planeswalker that just hasn't been perfect for the format, yet. Now is her time to shine, and Tamiyo is another card I'll be targeting during pre-release trades.

Buylisting

Don't forget your LGS is likely buying up RTR cards also. At my store, the LGS owner needs to fill pre-orders for singles, and offers a hefty buy price on items he needs until he fills his orders. If you deal in large quantities, talk to the owner, ask him if he has any special needs and offer to help. By moving cards directly to the store you save significant trade time, just be sure that you're getting enough value. While you typically don't get the value you deserve by trading your cards to a retailer, remember that these cards will drop off quickly in a couple of weeks, and if you end up stuck with them in your binder, then you've lost much more value than you would have by dumping them at the shop.

What guild will you choose? And what are your primary non-RTR targets in trades? What do you think of my Tamiyo call, is it her time to shine? What about Bonfire, is it's sun setting, or is it going to maintain for the next year?

Have a blast at the Pre-release!

Insider: Corbin’s Return to Ravnica Prerelease Primer

Posted on September 27, 2012January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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After what seems like an eternity of previews, here we are again! It’s time for my Prerelease Primer (or set review, if you will) that I do for every new set.

For those of you not familiar with how I do set reviews, I start by giving you all a little credit. I don’t go card-by-card through the entire set and waste thousands of words telling you that obviously bulk rares are, in fact, bulk rares. Instead, I try to hit on the cards drawing the most hype as well as those I feel like you need to have on your radar for one reason or another, whether they be sleepers or casual hits and so forth.

Magic 2013 turned out to be pretty accurate for me. I misevaluated Thragtusk a little bit, not in terms of playability but of long-term price. I pegged it as 7-10 because I didn’t apply the rule of Core Set, which is that due to it being opened in fewer numbers cards can go 20-30% higher than they would in an expansion.

Overall, though, my M13 review, like Avacyn Restored and Dark Ascension before it, turned out pretty accurate, and I’m happy with it.

But enough of the past. Let’s get to the future.

And the future is a Return to Ravnica. The large Fall set is the hardest to predict in terms of price because it brings a completely new metagame with it. In addition, Ravnica looks to be probably the most popular set of all time judging from pre-orders, and right now most all of the cards are overpriced.

But we’ll see what we can do. I’ll be taking a look at some of the higher-hyped cards, as well as those I think actually have upside.

Let’s dig in.

Shocklands

I talked about the Shocks in this article, so check it out if you’re curious as to how I see the lands from the last couple years going forward.

Angel of Serenity

Surely you got in on this at $6 when Quiet Speculation sent you an Insider blast, right? Well, if not, it’s up to $15 on SCG, and I think it’s going to stick between $10 and $20 for the next year or so, depending on playability. It’s not a Commander card, but it’s a very good Angel, so it’s going to be hard to send it below $10. That said, even if it is played, it’s probably not as a 4-of, so I think we can expect $10-15 to be the range we’ll see in a few months.

Martial Law

I don’t think this is bulk, which is what SCG has it priced at ($.50 for them). It’s not going to be huge, but it’s probably okay in the right midrange matchups, so it’s probably going to push $1 or so. Either way, something to keep an eye on but not something I’m really excited about.

Rest in Peace

I do think this will see play, as it’s one of the better graveyard hate cards we’ve seen in a while, and it’s powerful in older formats. At a $4 pre-sell price, I don’t see much of an upside though. This looks like a $3-5 card all the way unless the Energy Field/Rest in Peace deck is a real thing in Legacy (which I doubt).

Still, it will see Eternal play, so the $10 price for foils is probably where the play is this weekend since people will probably trade it to you around half that.

Jace, Architect of Thought

I’m blown away that a bunch of the Magic community (at least in the Twitterverse) don’t think that Jace is good. The +1 ability is much better than people are giving it credit for, especially when it’s almost always going to curve into a Tamiyo, the Moon Sage.

But maybe people are catching on. Jace started at $25 on SCG and is not out of stock at $30. I think it’s likely this card is going to fluctuate somewhere between $20-30 for its lifetime in Standard, so I’d say getting in now is probably not the right call long-term.

Desecration Demon

A powerful card, to be sure, but one that is going to be very metagame-dependent. It’s very bad against Lingering Souls, for instance, but can also top out an aggressive deck or fill a control role.

As it looks right now, though, I’m just not seeing it. Zombies has other options in the four-drop spot, and Gravecrawler itself means this card isn’t good against the deck. As for the control decks, I think they’re looking for a higher-costed but higher-impact finisher.

A powerful card, and one not to forget, but I imagine it’s going to hover around its current $4 price of drop a little because it just doesn’t seem to have a home yet.

Pack Rat

Casual players love Rats, and though there will be a ton of copies of this out there, it’s a good long-term call at $1.

Ash Zealot

I’m surprised this card hasn’t gotten more hype. It’s $3 on SCG right now, and I think people are honestly just used to Red not being a thing. But remember, last year Stromkirk Noble bounced up to $10 around the time of States.

With a lot of the Red hate cards gone, RDW could be a thing again as players start to Shock themselves with their lands. Zealot can easily double in price if that’s the case, and could even see some player in older formats.

Abrupt Decay

Very good card. Not $20 good, long-term. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hold $20 for a while, but there’s just no way it sits there forever. It’s very, very good, but it’s not on the same level as Snapcaster Mage, in my opinion.

That said, it’s a powerhouse in Modern. Don’t be surprised to see $15 hold for a long time. There’s just no reason to get in at $20 right now.

Armada Wurm

I guess I have to talk about this because it’s $15 on SCG. I don’t love it. It’s fine, it’s a big beater, it’s Broodmate Dragon, etc… Here’s the thing, though, its mana requirements mean it can’t go into a million decks, and since when was GW lacking in big beaters? Honestly? I’d rather pay 6 mana for Collective Blessing and turn all my mana dorks into Armada Wurms.

I don’t like it at $15 at all. I see something more like half that being correct going forward.

Collective Blessing

Speaking of Collective Blessing, it’s a card I like at a buck. It’s going to trade very well to casual players and tops out a Township Tokens-esque deck very well.

Detention Sphere

Another very cool, and very good, card, but another card not worth $10. It doesn’t go into every deck, and the color restrictions actually cut out a fair amount of the decks that would run Oblivion Ring. $5-7 card.

Izzet Charm

Of all the Charms (and they’re all very good), this is the best for Legacy play. That means foil copies are the place to be, and are sold out at $8 on SCG. I know we’ll see these trade for less than that in the first week or two.

Lotleth Troll

This dude is absurd, and I don’t think the $10 preorder is too out of order. Gravecrawler and Messenger are pushing that despite multiple printings, so don’t be surprised to see their next best friend stick around there as well, or come down a little bit if the deck doesn't pan out.

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenious

Here we have my pick for the most-underpriced card in the set. This guy is the new Olivia, and we all remember her big spike in price at the Pro Tour.

Niv is only $10 on SCG. He’s Legendary, so there’s Commander appeal; He’s a Dragon, so there’s casual appeal; and he’s only $10? This means the competitive world is taking a pass on him so far, but this will change. Untapping with Niv completely takes over a game, especially if you’ve done so after curving Jace into Tamiyo into this guy.

I’m calling a spike to $20+ and then settling back around $15-20 long-term.

Rakdos's Return

Not a strong play at $15. It’s good, but there’s a debate as to whether it’s even better than Blightning. For the record, I think it is, and it will blow out a ton of matches, but I still think the card is going to lose 30-50% of its value in a few months.

Vraska, the Unseen

This is a good Planeswalker, and pretty sweet in some Jund builds I’m sure we’ll see. But it’s not $40. It’s a $10-20 dollar ‘Walker at best.

Judge's Familiar

Should’ve been a Merfolk… 🙁

Chromatic Lantern

Awesome card. Awesome flavor, Awesome effect. Slots into Commander decks and Control decks everywhere. I expect this to be a big factor in the Control decks of the format, and a $4-6 pricetag seems correct.

That's it. I can't wait for the new set and to look back on these predictions in a few months!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Ravnica Standard: Part 2

Posted on September 27, 2012September 27, 2012 by Mike Lanigan

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Sometimes in deck building, all you have to go on is one card. Take Armada Wurm for example.

The first time I saw this thing I knew it was extremely powerful. The obvious comparison is to Broodmate Dragon but this time the creatures have trample instead of flying. Six mana for ten power is an excellent rate. If they printed a six mana 10/10 with trample, we would all go nuts over the power level. Armada Wurm is actually better as two creatures rather than one because it’s harder to deal with. What I know is that Armada Wurm is very good and I want to find a home for it. It is too good not to see play in Standard.

Today’s mission: Build decks with Armada Wurm!

One of the first ideas I had with Armada Wurm was to include it as the top end of a midrange token deck. The new populate mechanic seems solid and populating wurm tokens seems unbeatable. Take a look at Junk Tokens.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Avacyns Pilgrim

4 Arbor Elf

4 Wayfaring Temple

2 Trostani, Selesnyas Voice

3 Armada Wurm

Spells

4 Call of the Conclave

4 Gather the Townsfolk

4 Lingering Souls

4 Intangible Virtue

3 Rootborn Defenses

Lands

4 Temple Garden

4 Overgrown Tomb

4 Sunpetal Grove

4 Woodland Cemetery

3 Gavony Township

3 Forest

2 Plains

This is my first look at a token deck. I like the mana curve because it allows us to play early token makers and follow that up with some way to populate them or pump them up. Of course, we also have Armada Wurm at the top of the curve to seal up some games. Six mana is not a lot in a deck like this. Early in the last Standard season, I played a similar style deck and the six-cost creatures were really what made the deck good. That is definitely the case here.

You can easily take the offensive or defensive role depending on your opponent. Gavony Township is extremely important and very synergistic in the deck. But if there are too many mana problems with three copies, it might be prudent to remove one copy.

At the moment, the only need for black mana is the flashback on Lingering Souls. I could see adding in a removal spell or two but you do not want to dilute the deck too much. If you take out too many cards dealing with tokens, you will lose the consistency that makes this list so solid.

One card I would look to include in the deck or sideboard is Oblivion Ring. That enchantment is a catch-all removal spell and should help get you out of most sticky situations. The first black card to add would be Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. Although he was not playable pre-rotation, I think he becomes much better in the new environment.

One card I am uncertain of is [card Trostani, Selesnyas Voice]Trostani[/card]. If I were going to make any cuts, I would analyze how well that card is playing out. I like what she does, especially that she populates the rest of your creatures, but four mana seems like a lot for this effect. Those two spells could turn into any of the suggestions above.

Overall, this is a solid tokens deck. It has everything you could want to make this archetype viable like utility lands, good token makers, resiliency and a good finisher. It's hard to say if a deck like this will be one of the pillars of the format until we see some actual tournament results but it is certainly an option.

A dedicated token deck is not the only place that Armada Wurm can fit though. We can use a lot of the same cards and create a midrange aggressive deck.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Avacyns Pilgrim

4 Arbor Elf

4 Strangleroot Geist

4 Loxodon Smiter

4 Thragtusk

3 Armada Wurm

Spells

4 Rancor

4 Call of the Conclave

3 Oblivion Ring

2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride

Lands

4 Temple Garden

4 Sunpetal Grove

3 Gavony Township

8 Forest

5 Plains

G/W Midrange seems like a solid deck to me because of the high power and toughness to mana cost ratio. Loxodon Smiter, for example, will shut down most aggressive strategies until they find a removal spell. Most of the time they will have to get you to block and then after combat use Pillar of Flame or Tragic Slip to finish him off. Whenever this happens he is a two-for-one.

Strangleroot Geist also does a great job holding the ground against aggro. Higher up in the curve are the high-impact spells like Thragtusk and Armada Wurm. Most decks cannot handle either of these threats which makes them great creatures for the top end of your curve. Oblivion Ring helps you deal with difficult permanents like Lotleth Troll and planeswalkers. Originally, I had Selesnya Charm in the spot where Ajani is, but I think the three-mana planeswalker will be key to winning some matches.

This deck is capable of some very fast starts as well. Casting a turn two Loxodon Smiter and following it up on turn three with a Rancor and a Strangleroot Geist does eight damage on turn three. I think even most of the aggro decks will have a hard time keeping up with that ideal draw.

Another idea is to add some red mana to the midrange strategy. Obviously, adding another color opens up more possibilities. We need to be careful when adding a third color not to take too much damage from our lands or the deck will struggle against aggro.

This idea came to me from trying to build a deck similar to the Jund decks that used to dominate Standard. Since Armada Wurm is the new Broodmate Dragon, it seemed logical to create the deck in Naya colors. Take a look at Naya Midrange.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Flinthoof Boar

4 Loxodon Smiter

4 Huntmaster of the Fells

3 Thragtusk

2 Armada Wurm

Spells

4 Rancor

3 Pillar of Flame

4 Call of the Conclave

3 Oblivion Ring

2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride

Lands

4 Temple Garden

4 Sunpetal Grove

4 Rootbound Crag

4 Clifftop Retreat

2 Gavony Township

3 Forest

2 Plains

1 Mountain

The goal of this deck is to play the best creatures at each mana cost and some removal to back it up. This deck has two different two-mana 3/3's, a 4/4 for three mana, and an amazing four-drop with four power. The power level of all the cards in this deck is extremely high. You have Rancor and [card Ajani, Caller of the Pride]Ajani[/card] for evasion and [card Pillar of Flame]Pillar[/card] and [card Oblivion Ring]O-ring[/card] for removal. Every way you look at it, this deck is solid. The mana base might need a little work because all of the cards demand a lot to work. Of all the decks I am writing about today, this is the one I am the most excited to try out.

Finally, Armada Wurm seems to fit the best in a control deck as the finisher. So, the final deck I want to take a look at is Junk Control.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Loxodon Smiter

4 Thragtusk

3 Armada Wurm

Spells

4 Farseek

3 Tragic Slip

2 Abrupt Decay

2 Murder

3 Liliana of the Veil

3 Garruk Relentless

2 Sever the Bloodline

3 Oblivion Ring

2 Underworld Connections

Lands

4 Temple Garden

4 Sunpetal Grove

4 Overgrown Tomb

4 Woodland Cemetery

3 Forest

3 Plains

3 Swamp

This deck may look familiar to you, as a lot of authors have been talking about decks like this one. The major difference is that they are Jund decks rather than Junk decks. I chose to go with white mana over red in this deck because of how good I think Armada Wurm is, and because you don't lose much by removing the red.

The Loxodon Smiter may look strange in this deck, but remember it clogs up the ground quite well which is helpful against aggro. Also, since it is uncounterable, it will help a lot against control decks. Personally, I love Underworld Connections and I might even try to fit a third copy in the deck somewhere.

Of the four decks, I think this deck is the one that could change the most. Control decks must rapidly adapt to the changing metagame. The removal is so versatile in black and white that there should not be many threats this deck cannot handle, but you will definitely want to customize your removal depending on the direction the format heads in.

Hopefully you can see just how many options there will be for new decks once this new format is a reality. Building decks with one card in mind, I was able to brainstorm four completely different decks. There are so many possibilities for this new format, I can't wait to see the first few events to see what ends up on top.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force, but don’t forget to watch out for Syncopate along the way.

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Tricks of the Trade, Part 1 – The Acceleration Effect & Framing Risk

Posted on September 26, 2012January 17, 2022 by Gervaise Pechler

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With Return to Ravnica prereleases just around the corner, authors are writing about it everywhere, evaluating the set based on playability and future value. This article will not cover any of that, as I feel my colleagues are doing fantastic work.

Instead I want to share some insights derived from the finance and poker worlds. I feel one can apply this to Magic finance and other applicable situations.

The Acceleration Effect

Derived from ‘DUCY?’ by David Sklansky

Whenever one is asked ‘How are you doing today, sir or maddam?’ one either answers with "I am fine, thanks. And you?’ or really starts to ponder how one is feeling. The irrational thing to do would be to compare today with yesterday, the day before yesterday and so on. What’s even more striking is when we compare how we feel today with how we expect today to be.

This kind of feeling can work both ways. For instance, people who improve their lives should get a reward of feeling a little better about themselves. If they do not, then they would be chronic depressive!

The opposite can also happen. In Magic finance, for example, we make sales. Or if you occasionally play poker online, you check your results day after day.

Sklansky brilliantly writes that one is happier when one has two $100 losing days in a row followed by a $500 winning day compared to two winning days of $500 followed by a losing day of $400. The net profit in the first sequence is +$300 while the 2^nd sequence grants you a $600 profit. I can totally agree with this because I used to compare Day 1 with Day 2. And those two days I compared with Day 3.

So, in the first sequence, I had two mediocre days and suddenly I earned $500. Wow! In the second sequence I had a good first day, the same profit in the secondday, which is good. But my mind can say ‘It is not improving’. The third day I lose $400, which is a huge gap compared to the other two days. I completely disregard the end results of each sequence and just compare the days with each other.

The thing I want to point out is that it can increase our natural tendency to over-emphasize the short term, especially when any financial decision we make isn't necessarily a step up over the day before.

If, for instance, one went deeply into Snapcaster Mage at $20 before the pre-B&R back in July 2012 and saw the graph steadily going down to $16, he/she might take some actions that are solely based on emotions in order to ‘’fix’’ it.

My word of advice is to not over-react, but rather stay focused on the goals you’ve made. If you went deep on the same Snapcaster for long-term, then stay long-term, thus avoiding seeing the volatility the short-term can bring.

When things are going well, remind yourself that you are doing a good job in Magic finance! Recognition of your progress is vital to success as it motivates almost anyone to keep doing what he/she is doing.

Framing Risk

Derived from ‘Inside the Investor’s Brain’ by Richard L. Peterson

When a certain financial decision is portrayed as an opportunity or gain, the brain’s reward system is engaged. When a financial decision is portrayed as a risk or something one might lose, the loss avoidance system is activated. As Richard Peterson put it himself ‘The different presentations of a decision, in terms of either what one might lose or what one might gain, is called framing’.

Now how is this relevant for us as speculators in the world of Magic? I present to you two scenarios:

Scenario one:
Imagine you have two choices. You can pay $1,000 now and the gamble is over, or you can take a risk whose outcome will be determined by the toss of a coin. If heads comes up, you lose $0. If tails comes up, you lose $2,000. Now would you take the guaranteed loss or take the risk?

Scenario two:
You have the option of accepting a guaranteed $1,000 profit or take a risk. In case of not choosing the $1,000 profit, you will flip a coin. If heads comes up, you win $2,000. If tails comes up, you win $0. Would you accept the guaranteed $1,000 or take the risk?

Now both problems have the same EV (Expected Value) long-term. Most people choose the sure gain in problem two but not a lot of people will choose the guaranteed loss. In a similar decision situation, Noble Prize winner Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky found out during their experiments that 84 percent of the participants chose the sure gain. At the same time 70 percent chose to take the risk in scenario two.¹

Our brain is extremely sensitive to losses than gains when it comes to risk. Hence any decisions that can avoid those losses are highly desired by the brain. This is mostly portrayed as being ‘risk averse’.

So when we are having a guaranteed gain, we probably fear of losing it if we take a risk, hence taking the quick $1,000. But when we are talking about having a guaranteed loss, most of us, including myself, will take a risk as we want to avoid ‘losing’.

Applying this to Magic Finance is simple: most speculators are ‘risk seeking in the realm of losses’ and ‘risk averse in the realm of gains’, meaning we often hold on too long to our losers yet cut winners too short.

One personal experience I can give you is with the good old Overmaster. I still have four copies left at $3.99. I had one customer who bought 2 out of my 6 (4 remaining) a week ago at $4.50 each. I can go extremely short and put it down to $2.50, expecting to grab a quick $10 profit, but I feel I can get maximum value by just being patient and not be afraid or fearing I might lose money on these last four cards. When writing this some days ago, I just sold my last playset after waiting a relatively long time. This does not proof that maintaining its price is value maximisation but I do feel that cutting prices while being in a rush is definitely not value maximisation.

I personally feel that this fear is steadily decreases the more experience one has doing anything involving risk. When one is familiar and consistent, confidence grows so there is less chance of actually being fearful of a particular investment.

I want to give some pointers that may seem obvious, but highlighting them will help maximize value with your speculations:

We are more susceptible to loss aversion after a recent and/or large losses of any nature. When being emotional distressed, we just can’t think clearly as our emotions are taking over.

When you reevaluate my portfolio, ask yourself ‘’All things being equal, would I start buying this card today?’’. If that is not the case, then it is better to sell over selling another card that is rising in value. An example would be overhyped cards like Skaab Ruinator

When it comes to mid-long term investments, it is advisable to not check the prices too frequently. It leads to awareness of volatility and impulsive, emotional sell or buy actions will trigger.

Create a plan! If one is speculating about a particular card, realize at what point you will start selling the card when it reaches X amount of profit. At the same time, devise a plan to sell the speculation when things are going sour (stop losses).

I definitely recommend studying and reading the two books I mentioned in this article, as it helps to understand how the human brain works, where one can overcome irrationality in everyday’s life and how to stay sharp and focused in any world containing risk.

In my next article I want to cover some more concrete trading tricks derived from marketing, behavioural economics and other areas I am excited to discuss.

On a side note, I have been receiving a lot of positive feedback about the Magic Online Diary project. A big thanks to you guys, as I was not so sure if that was something worth investing in. Before Return to Ravnica hits the online shelves, I will start positioning myself in the online world. I still have to work on how I want to work it out (written, video or audio) and how I should operate in terms of views (short-, mid or long term?). Feedback is always welcome!

I want to wish you a lot of fun, prosperous and exciting Return to Ravnica prerelease! Thank you for reading!

- Gervaise
Twitter: @Gerv055

Recommended readings:
Regarding Acceleration effect:

1. Ariely, Dan. 2011. ''The Long-Term Effects of Short-Term Emotions: Why We Shouldn't Act on Our Negative Feelings'', in the upside of irrationality (2011 edition), London: HarperCollinsPublishers

Regarding Framing Risk:

1. Weber, Martin and Welfens, Frank, Splitting the Disposition Effect: Asymmetric Reactions Towards 'Selling Winners' and 'Holding Losers' (July 25, 2008). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1176422

2. Dhar, Ravi and Zhu, Ning, Up Close and Personal: An Individual Level Analysis of the Disposition Effect (August 2002). Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-20. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=302245

Notes

¹^{Novemsky, N., and D. Kahneman. 2005. ''How do intentions affect loss aversion?'' Journal of Marketing Research 42 (May): 139-140.}

A Few Thoughts on Return to Ravnica Standard

Posted on September 26, 2012September 26, 2012 by Ryan Overturf

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You’ll frequently find me criticizing Standard as the worst Constructed format. It is defined by small card pools and is often just the clashing of a few select spells that far outclass all of the other spells.

That said, I’m always optimistic when the format rotates. Though I am somewhat jaded, I do feel that R&D is learning with every mistake they make. While they do make entirely new mistakes from time to time, I believe that Magic as a game is moving in a positive direction.

I’m pretty excited for Return to Ravnica. As far as I can tell, there isn’t a single mistake of a card in the set and everything looks pretty sweet. I’ll probably be more into drafting than Standard, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be playing a lot of Standard anyway.

While many speculate that some variant of Zombies is going to be dominant early on in the format, I do not see the deck being nearly as powerful as others seem to. I’m more inclined to agree with Mike Flores and Brian Kibler that the format is going to be very midrange oriented. I do not want to be casting cards like Diregraf Ghoul into opposing Centaur Healers and Thragtusks.

Speaking of Thragtusk, I really don’t want to be caught dead without four of them in my deck in the immediate future. The most powerful core for a deck that I’ve come across to date looks like this:

Add Centaur Healers and Armada Wurms to taste.

While the train has left the station on investing in cards like Restoration Angel, I believe that Disciple of Bolas has a lot of upward potential. You can currently find the card for around two dollars and he is easily worth twice that price.

If the mindless masses playing Zombies are going to force you into playing defensive creatures anyhow, then Disciple of Bolas will frequently have three power creatures to munch on. Drawing three cards and gaining three life for four mana and a creature is a pretty good rate where I’m from, and the value you get when Thragtusk is sacrificed is just insane.

If I am correct in saying that midrange is where you want to be early on in new Standard, then it seems obvious that players will be looking to start going bigger when all of the hyper-aggressive decks become unpopular due to their inability to beat a Centaur Healer-Thragtusk curve.

At this point in time I think that we’ll be seeing a lot of Rakdos's Return, Sphinx's Revelation and Planeswalkers. When players are trying to go big, X spells and permanents that “cast spells” turnly are the natural course they take.

I can’t point to a particular Planeswalker that I think is going to dominate Standard, as I believe that even Ajani, Caller of the Pride still has a lot of potential on the back of his game-winning ultimate. With mana being as good as it is we will be seeing all sorts of combinations.

One thing that I can say for certain is that Nicol Bolas has a way of winning any heads-up Planeswalker battle. I wouldn’t be even a little surprised if he sees a good amount of play during his return to Standard legality. I would even go so far to say that his five dollar price tag feels a little low.

In terms of the cards that are going to be extensively played, I feel there are some obvious and already expensive cards already out there, so I don’t want to relay too much information regarding those. I can tell you with a great deal of confidence that Thragtusk is going to increase in value, if only briefly, early on.

As a favor to those that looking for a cheap card to make a quick buck on, I’m going to let you in on a little secret:

I purchased 80 copies of this card from Star City for fifty cents apiece, and I fully expect this card to see heavy play.

It hoses Lingering Souls, Lotleth Troll, Entreat the Angels, Geralf's Messenger, Ajani, Caller of the Pride any instance of redundant creatures. And much much more.

The major point I want to make is that Sever is good against basically everything. From the fastest aggressive decks to the slowest control decks (ala Miracles), there will be something that you can Sever for value. And then you get to flash it back later.

Sever saw a pretty good amount of play in Innistrad Block and really only never made the leap to Standard on account of the fact that it was invalidated by the way Delver played and the insane value generated by cards like Primeval Titan simply coming into play. In a slower format with creatures that generate considerably less value on CIPT, Sever is going to be much more of a player. And it’s not like you have anything to lose at fifty cents each.

While I don’t want to post any exact decklists before we start seeing tournament results, rest assured I have been doing some brewing. And once we start to get a defined metagame I’ll be doing everything I can to keep up with it and to push myself a step ahead of it.

To everybody else brewing out there - good luck, high five.

-Ryan Overturf

Jason’s Archives: Pre-Prerelease Party

Posted on September 25, 2012September 25, 2012 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

October is nearly upon us, when a young man's fancy turns to thoughts of the prerelease and the beloved Lingering Souls FNM promo turns to Evolving Wilds.

Wait, seriously? Evolving Wilds? 2008 called, and they want both their card, and premise for a joke about the past calling wanting something back, back.

Brainstorm Brewery plans to have Jon "the magic 8 ball" Medina on the cast to discuss price speculation. Expect Corbin to borrow heavily from his own articles. Expect me to borrow heavily from Corbin's articles. After all, he's the only one on the AVR episode of the cast who correctly called Restoration Angel, a pick that seems obvious in retrospect.

More on Retrospect

You may recall reading an article where I talk about the 99.9% of the Magic Community that conspicuously isn't Sam Black. I noted how most of these folk tend to think their ideas aren't great unless someone else reaches the same conclusion independently. I then encouraged everyone to run with their ideas, good or not, and to bathe and brush their teeth before the prerelease. (OK, that wasn't in that article, per se, but it should be in an article somewhere and this one seemed as good a place as any).

This is a finance site, so let's talk about how bad everyone is at finance.

The Retail Effect

Most people are best represented as follows:

sheep — I couldn't find a lemming token.

Whether or not you consider yourself an intelligent person capable of independent thought, human behavior predisposes us to act predictably and follow groupthink unless conscious effort is made to resist. We all do it. Most of us misevaluated cards in Avacyn Restored. Let's not lie and pretend we didn't.

Corbin will routinely defend his picks in a followup article here on QS and be honest with himself when he is wrong. (When he's right, expect to hear about it for the rest of your life. See Restoration Angel). I don't write finance articles and I'm rarely asked to publicly assess the monetary value of spoiled cards, so I don't have to pretend later I wasn't extra wrong. I get to chuck hundreds of copies of Gloom Surgeon into my furnace and pretend I've never made a bad call in my life.

Remember all the articles about [card Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded]Tibalt[/card] and Temporal Mastery? I sure do! Temporal Mastery was a $100 foil the week of the prerelease, while Bonfire of the Damned foil was like $11 if memory serves. Remember when Tibalt and [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card] were the same price, which was greater than that of a foil Griselbrand? Remember when Terminus presold for 50 cents less than Entreat the Angels? This all happened. Those prices were obviously transient, but there is a point to be made.

Presale prices are arbitrary. They're guesses. Educated guesses, sure, but still guesses. One retail site in particular (I won't name it but I don't think I have to) tends to set the prices which other sites copy. Certain cards can sell out quickly putting upward pressure on presale prices, but it isn't until players actually play with the cards that the true values begin to pan out. Presale prices aren't really backed by anything beyond mere conjecture. Without millions of players having actually used the cards, how informed can they be?

Remember Time Reversal? The initial reaction of "ERMAGERD! [card Time Spiral]TERM SPERAL[/card]!" from most players led to its $30 presale price tag. Another $30 presale card? Skaab Ruinator, a card I pick up in bulk now. So good in Pod, right? That's what we thought.

The point is this: if a price seems too high, it probably is. If a price seems too low, it probably is. If a card seems good and no one is talking about it, they could be wrong. Trust your gut and make some damn money!

Mitigating Your Risk

The obvious way to ensure you make money is to buy low and sell high. But what if the bottom drops out?

If you bought at the bottom, nothing. A bulk rare will never fall below a certain price. If you buy at that price and it goes up, you made some money. If it doesn't, you assumed little risk. There will be some "breakage" via fees and such when selling to recoup your initial investment, but you won't lose your house because you went a few hundred deep on a bulk rare that didn't pan out.

I've spent the last year picking up every copy of Drogskol Reaver I could get my hands on, usually at $1 or less in trade. I'm either about to look like a genius, or about to sell a lot of Drogskol Reavers for $0.50 cash. Either way I am out nothing, and all it took was patience. Reaver seemed low to me, and with Azorius a likely color combination for an eventual control deck, it looked like a solid candidate for the role of finisher.

Of course you don't have to spend a year to accumulate a lot of copies of a card that seems too low.

If you are intimidated by the higher-priced cards like Angel of Serenity, which has a lot of room to go up or down, try a bulk rare. Lots of bulk rares hit $5 when they start to see play. Wolfir Silverheart, which preordered at bulk (even the foil was dirt cheap because of its inclusion in the precon deck), hit $12 after PT Barcelona. Zealous Conscripts hit $5.

I preordered 100 copies of Conscripts for bulk, the same price I paid for 100 copies of Divine Deflection. I totally whiffed on Deflection, but what am I out? If it's not a card after "Sinker" comes out, I can dump it for bulk or trade it to casuals. You know, bulk. What I paid for it.

Thanks for the Tip. Now Give Us Some Alters, Monkey Boy!

Ask and ye shall receive, provided you continue to pepper me with insults inspired by Buckaroo Banzai.

523225_427508350619152_1804818917_n — So, that Klug guy is pretty good.

Inspired by an Alex Grey lithograph called Ecstasy, this commission is easily one of the most breathtaking pieces we've seen out of Klug to date. Compare this to the original piece:

Not impressed? What if I told you artist Eric Klug has been blind from birth?! He, you know, hasn't, but that would be impressive, right?

Check the corners before you hyperventilate

Redditor fadingthought shared these alters he got back in the mail from artist Dan Frazier, destined for his cube. Fraizer really spruced up this Collector's Edition power, making it at least attractive enough to make lewd, late-night phone calls to. I'm not sure what that white dragon is up to over there, but it's probably innocent.

Speaking of alterations, 3-D alterist Lindsay "Hurly" Burley was featured in an SCG deck tech-esque interview in the Invitationals converage. I'll hook you up with a link since you asked so nice.

SCG Invitational, You Say?

Indeed. We can dig right in if you want.

SCG Invitational Top 16

Before you click the link, try to guess how many different decks made up the Top 8.

If you said "two" you're a cynical, cynical person.

You're also totally correct. Haters gonna hate, and pro players gonna play. Play Delver, that is. Eight of the Top 16 featured flying [card Wild Nacatl]nacatls[/card]. Solar Flare made three appearances, G/R two and B/R Zombies one.

The only interesting note was Michael Rooks' decision to play Smallpox, which is ballsy and hilarious. In fact, I've invented a new word to describe it -- ballsilarious, a word I may have to go back to the drawing board on because it does not sound good now that I've written it down.

You know what's a great card to play alongside symmetrical discard and sacrifice effects? Veilborn Ghoul. The Sphinx of the Chimes-Veilborn Ghoul engine Ryan Bushard came up with (and Conley Woods laughed at) may be real after all. Reassembling Skeleton got played for a bit after all. Sure Skeleton blocked, but Ghoul beats for four and doesn't require mana to come back, freeing you up to Smallpox them into oblivion.

Batterskull seems like a good finisher here as it's a renewable source of creatures, and Veilborn Ghoul himself is tough to keep down as well. Great stuff here. If you don't want to play Delver for the next two FNMs, look into this pile.

Todd Anderson won this event with Delver, beating Solar Flare in the finals. He then elected to go on Twitter and ruin any possibility of fruitful Return to Ravnica discussion by claiming that a SCG Invitational is tougher than a stop on the Pro Tour. Butthurt ensued.

Standard Open Top 16

Six of the Top 16 were Delver, including the winning deck piloted by Josh Robinson. We saw a bit more variance in the Top 8, including Morgan Chang's RUG Pod, chosen because dredge decks aren't legal in this format. Michigan's own Trevor Petrilli played the other Pod deck, adding white because Blade Splicer, that's why. Also, to my knowledge, no one has ever said "I'll hardcast [card Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite]Elesh Norn[/card], but I'll probably lose anyway".

Not quite breaching the Top 16 was a horde of zombie decks. When Mana Leak gives way to Abrupt Decay, a troll-powered zombie pile looks likely, and Dreadbore fits nicely into the already-established black-red framework. There are a lot of ways to build it, but expect zombies to be the go-to archetype after rotation. It's cheap, it's obvious and it's testing well. It will take a month or so for the control deck to get tuned, so show up ready to beat zombies, or stay home.

Legacy Open Top 16

Goblins, piloted by Max Tietze, got there. Straightforward and brutal, this deck is finally starting to put up big numbers. It took longer than I'd expected for this deck to come back after the prompt banning of Mental Misstep but it's back with a vengeance.

Blue decks, however, are what the field seemed prepared for. Two of the Top 16 decks were Miracle brews, called U/W/R because two copies of Red Elemental Blast out of the board justifies a capital R. Terminus is really good against a field full of Goblins, Merfolk, and most importantly, Maverick.

Maverick relies on Mother of Runes to thwart spot removal like Swords to Plowshares, and simply eats it to Terminus. In the Maverick v. Miracles match, Gaddock Teeg protected by mom is generally good enough to get there, but anything less comes down to a race.

The new uncounterable wrath may get some play in this build since the blue mana requirement isn't that bad and the ability to pants merfolk decks is very appealing.

Matching his Standard performance was Travis Petrilli again, this time playing the only Omni-Tell list in the Top 8. Jamming two copies each of Overmaster and Jace, the Mind Sculptor, this deck shows how the format is evolving a bit to address a shifting metagame. Still no Academy Rectors evident in the Top 36.

What we did see, however, was not one but two copies of Stoneblade, a deck that is down but apparently not out.

Maverick continues to be tier one. Will Stevens got back to basics and didn't include any of the wackiness we've seen recently like Ulvenwald Tracker, Fauna Shaman or [card Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite]Elesh Norn[/card]. I personally think three Stoneforge Mystic is probably too many, but it's hard to argue with success.

The two Gut Shot in the board makes me lol because Standard Open Top 8 finisher Ryan Forsberg and I had toyed with that card for Maverick sideboards in the past and it's validating to see it get results. Killing a [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] before it flips, an opposing Mother of Runes, a [card Dark Confidant]Bob[/card] or even something like Goblin Welder, this card has serious reach in Legacy. Who's going to expect it from a tapped-out G/W player? Not the guy about to lose to it.

"Um, no sir, your Goblin Lackey does not connect. I say good day sir. I said good day sir!"

Legacy continues to be a good format, and a new set brings new possibilities to a stagnant and only occasionally Smallpox-filled Standard environment.

I'm Audi 5000

Take it sleazy, folks. Go to the prerelease, and don't fret over which guild to play. They all have solid cards in the common and uncommon spots and a playable promo is an exciting addition to the prerelease experience.

Check out this week's Brainstorm Brewery for our financial picks for the set and if you feel the urge to pick up a cheap bulk rare like Collective Blessing, trust your gut. It won't be as vulnerable to getting shot after next week anyway.

Insider Basics: Analyzing The Recent B&R Changes

Posted on September 25, 2012January 17, 2022 by Douglas Linn

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On September 20, Christmas again came early for speculators everywhere. Wizards of the Coast decided to unban and unrestrict some cards and we are going to talk today about why some of them are winners and others are losers. At 12am they announced the changes and at 12:03, I had an email going out to Insiders about the changes with my suggestions. I'll fill you in on how I made such quick decisions and why they have been pretty accurate. First off, here's the email:

Hello!

Valakut is unbanned in Modern. Pick up Valakuts, obviously, but Scapeshift
and Prismatic Omen are also critical parts of the Valakut Modern deck.

Burning Wish is unrestricted in Vintage; honestly, you can get in on this
if you want but Vintage is such a small market that I don't anticipate
LASTING profits from Burning Wishes becoming available. Foil Wishes are
still a fine acquisition.

Go forth and profit!

Why isn't Valakut just blowing up?

To be fair, Valakut IS literally blowing up.

Valakut, the unbanned Modern land, should be exploding in price as a prime speculation target. However, it has been slowly climbing in price. On Ebay, they were closing for about $1 apiece before the unbanning and now they are up to about $3.25 per copy. I was not strong on the card at unbanning and I'm still not sold on it bringing high gains. These are my reasons:

Promo copies: Valakut was the promo for Zendikar, which was a hugely-attended prerelease due to the Hidden Treasures promotion. Lots of people got their copies and got rid of them or stuffed them in a binder.

Low casual play: I've got a copy of the land for my Commander deck and I'm sure lots of people have one or two, but Valakut isn't exactly a deck that screams to be built in casual circles. It's not something like Quicksilver Amulet or Tortured Existence where you want to build something unique and awesome. It just rewards you for playing with a whole lot of Mountains. This isn't sexy.

Low in-deck need: Thanks to Scapeshift (we'll get to it), Valakut decks can get away with running only one or two of the namesake card and still burn someone out easily. Primeval Titan helps with this, too. Since you don't need four copies of it, the overall demand will be lower.

Low price history: Valakut was the centerpiece of an unfun and linear ramp strategy that tore up Standard pretty seriously. Throughout its reign, Valakut was only about $3. People simply cannot remember a time where they were paying $8 for a copy of it, so they are less inclined to pay that much for it now.

When you add all of this together, you can predict about a $2-3 rise on the card. Now on MTGO, this will still get you a lot of tickets, but paper Magicians have to worry about more transaction fees eating into their profits. This is a perfect card to dump into a buylist paying $2 for the copies you bought much more cheaply. I put together this information quickly when the updates were announced, mainly because I remember Valakut in Standard. However, if you're a newer player, you could go look at price histories on Black Lotus Project to get a sense of the historical ceiling on the card.

To be frank, I do not think Valakut is a good Modern strategy. That will not stop legions of people from trying it, though.

Shifting Your Perspective

A small gallery of shifting related cards:

(also coulda called this section "full of shift," suggest your puns in the comments)

Scapeshift has been an excellent speculation target in the past. Small brag time, I remember when Zendikar came out and I think Olivier Ruel mentioned that Scapeshift would be good for it. I bought a set for a quarter apiece and only wished I'd bought twenty more - it went on to smash up Extended.

At its height, Scapeshift was commanding $10+ in Extended. It was a potent combination and it won the game outright when it worked. While Valakut's price memory held it back, Scapeshift can get past that. It's an obvious power card and you want four of them in your deck to maximize the "I win" scenarios. People know that the card can be worth ten bucks when the card is good. It's also a really obvious target. This is important because you can have a really good spec target in mind, but if nobody puts it in a deck, the card gathers mold. I've had scenarios like that before; I think Desert was and is still pretty great in Modern, but nobody else is trying it out - it won't go anywhere. On the other hand, Scapeshift is the first place you look when you see that Valakut is unbanned. That makes it a great card to buy up to flip.

Prismatic Omen: Unique Effect, Great Price

I think when Wizards printed Prismatic Omen that they thought it was fairly costed. This card is wildly undercosted for its effect. It reads 1G: not care about mana colors ever. It also has the really potent ability of turning on "lands matter" cards. Neither of these abilities got much play before, so it made sense at the time that this card would not go anywhere. Well, not much further than my Last Stand casual deck, at least.

Prismatic Omen was phenomenal in the Scapeshift deck because it made everything into a mountain, even your Valakuts. You could run zero Mountains in your deck and still make Valakut kill someone if you had the Omen in play, and you could shift into two Valakuts and have them count each other in the final kill tally. It's because of this that Prismatic Omen went up to $15+ during its Extended run.

Just like with Scapeshift, this was a good call for speculation because the market knew it was good and was willing to pay a lot for it. It's from an older set and it has a lot of casual appeal outside of just Scapeshift. Everyone likes to fix their manabases easily and this is a good card for 4+color Commander decks. There's very little chance of seeing a reprint on it, either. I think Wizards knows that this set of abilities on a 1G card are just a little too potent.

Staying Out of Wargate

Wargate is another Scapeshift deck card and it's potentially really good - you can get Prismatic Omen or your Valakuts with it, for example. However, Wargate is a total crank to cast if you don't have the Omen in play, which limits it. Even if you do get it fired off, you've spent 3-5 mana for it. That could be too slow in Modern, and you've got to run it through Spell Pierces to resolve it. Wargate is a fine third-string speculation target. Things like Valakut are the guaranteed spec targets, and Scapeshift is a good second-string spec; it's pretty easy to figure out that you should use this card. I'd classify Helm of Obedience and the Leyline of the Void combo in the second tier, too - if you know about it, you can see the power, but you're a bit a loss for the application. Wargate, though, takes some real effort to make work; you've got to know why you should use it and it also has to make the final cut in the deck.

Wargate is fine to keep an eye on, though; they are about 60 cents right now on TCGPlayer and if the Scapeshift/Valakut deck goes anywhere, it might pack Wargates. There will be plenty of time to pick up Wargates if that deck actually plays them, but I would avoid getting stuck with hundreds of these right now. That the market isn't warm to the card at this point is a really good indicator that it will stay an unloved spell.

It's simple to look at the price history of Wargate and realize that this card wasn't huge, even when it was part of a very important Extended deck.

Burning Wish is Full of Vintage History But Lacks Action

Burning Wish was unrestricted in Vintage, so let me tell you how it got sent away in the first place.

Burning Wish was part of a deck called Long.dec, which used Lion's Eye Diamond. You'd play LED, cast Burning Wish and then use LED in response. Your wish would get... Yawgmoth's Will! You could cast the Will with LED mana and then replay the LEDs to get more mana before flashing back your graveyard and killing the poor opponent with Tendrils of Agony. Yes, it was degenerate. This was even worse because Wishes used to be able to get Exiled cards. You could Wish for a Yawgmoth's Will early, cast it, then get it back later with another Wish!

These days, however, LEDs are gone and Spell Pierces are common. Combination decks have not been a part of Vintage for a long time - its axis is currently Bazaar of Bagdad - Mishra's Workshop - Dark Confidant and storm does not slot in as a primary strategy with any of these. Burning Wish will solve none of this. Even if it did, there are too few Vintage events to drive Burning Wish's price. It hit about $10 earlier this year and is around $13 now. Not big returns, nor big reactions from the market. The takeaway here is that Vintage unrestrictions will very rarely create awesome spec targets.

Developing Your Speculation Sense

A lot of my quick response was due to following Magic for a long time, and you do get the benefit of vets like myself with you Insider subscription. Over time, though, you will develop your own memory of cards, and it's easy to do. Just follow the trends and the fun, winning decks in Magic and you'll be fine! Even when cards are unbanned out of the blue, you tend to have about an hour to scoop up everything that you'd want before the cards are gone from the internet. There are also plenty of other speculation opportunities that don't involve the four nights a year when Wizards gives attentive people free cash. You can use the same techniques of evaluating price history and potential when analyzing hot spoiled cards and new Standard breakouts.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Return to Ravnica in Commander

Posted on September 24, 2012September 24, 2012 by Andrew Martin

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It's been quite a while since I've been this excited for a new set. The original Ravnica block was such a spectacular one and RtR has a lot to live up to.

I'm sure Ravnica has tons of exciting cards for Standard, Modern and Legacy, which will be covered in articles by other people. For my part, I'm going to spend time looking at what this set has to offer the world of 99 cards.

For a full spoiler of Return to Ravnica, click the image below:

Initial Thoughts

I love the idea of two-color themes, which are prominently supported in Ravnica. I enjoy creating two-colored Commander decks the most because two colors usually provides enough cards for a robust theme while keeping it simple. Ravnica is the perfect set for this. There are plenty of fun two-colored gold cards as well as exciting new legendary creatures to work with.

Another bonus is that [card overgrown tomb]shock lands[/card] are being reprinted! A good chance for everyone to beef up their mana bases.

The Mechanics

Detain

Azorius's mechanic is detain. Detained creatures cannot attack, block, or activate their abilities until your next turn. This new ability can be quite good in a format dominated by large, mana-heavy creatures. Although I could find it to be rather obnoxious when used in large amounts. Because many of detain creatures trigger when they enter the battlefield, I imagine pairing this mechanic with [card ghostway]flicker[/card] effects or [card sunken hope]bouncing[/card].

Overload

Overload lets you cast a spell using an alternative (higher) cost. When you do, all instances of "target" in the text are replaced with "each".

Wow! What a wonderful mechanic for Commander. It becomes so much more powerful when there are multiple opponents. Because of how it's worded, paying overload will hit every opponent's permanent/creature/whatever while leaving yours alone.

I will also note that overload is the perfect flavor for Izzet. I foresee using many of these cards in my Commander decks.

Unleash

Rakdos's unleash mechanic lets creatures enter the battlefield with a +1/+1 counter at the cost of their ability to block. Sadly, this is quite underwhelming in Commander. Getting a +1/+1 counter isn't as much of an advantage in Commander as it is in other formats. Once you factor in the lack of defensive applications in a defense-oriented format, it seems the mechanic will rarely be worth it.

Scavenge

Creatures with scavenge can be exiled from the graveyard to put +1/+1 counters equal to their power on another creature. Scavenge can only be used as a sorcery, and except for one card (Slitherhead) always requires a mana cost.

The Golagari mechanic is certainly interesting. It is very thematic, but overall seems on the weaker side for Commander. I can see using a few in a deck that mills itself, but outside of that I don't see much use for scavenge cards.

Populate

Selesnya's populate puts a token onto the battlefield that's a copy of a creature token you control. The restriction is balanced by the way the populate mechanic is (usually) tacked onto cards with other effects.

This mechanic is very nice. I already have an idea for a deck that builds on this theme. The best way to use this in Commander would be to make a token deck (obviously), but one that primarily produces large creature tokens. Think Crush of Wurms.

Like scavenge, this is a mechanic your deck has to be built around. It is doable though, because of the large quantity of [card doubling season]cards that already work so well with tokens[/card].

The Legendary Creatures

What I'm most excited about from this set are the legendary creatures. I had mentioned in a previous article that my goal is to create a Commander deck for every color combination (27 in total) and this set provides me with some good choices for two-color commanders.

Azorius

Azorius's legend is Isperia, redone for the new set. The [card Isperia, the inscrutable]old Isperia[/card] was a quality Commander, and so is the new one. I can see trying to build a defensive deck with her, punishing opponents as much as possible for attacking you. Or, you could try to force your opponents to attack you to generate card advantage.

Beyond her draw ability she is a flying Craw Wurm, which is quite nice. Her downfall is that she costs six and only has four toughness, so it won't be difficult for your opponents to deal with her.

Golgari

Golgari gets Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord. This guy is insane!

Jarad has a lot going for himself. At only four mana, he should be quite large if you've built your deck around him. He has a sacrifice ability to take advantage of. If his mana cost gets too lofty, you can even let him go to the graveyard and sacrifice lands to return him to hand (where he'll always cost four).

I'm very excited to start brewing a deck for this guy. I think I'll probably scrap my other green-black deck and use Jarad instead.

Izzet

I'm pretty unimpressed with the new Niv-Mizzet. He's similar to the [card Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind]old one[/card], except he doesn't combo with Curiosity and what not. Overall he's a solid creature, but I don't find him to be Commander worthy. It would be difficult to justify him as a Commander since [card Jhoira of the ghitu]Jhoira[/card] would almost always be a better choice. He's just so difficult to build a theme around. I'm sure people will try him though, because come on, he's a legendary dragon wizard.

Rakdos

Another gem this set has to offer is Rakdos, Lord of Riots. He seems like a wonderful commander to build a deck around. He is cheap and very flavorful which makes for a quality deck. I like him because he encourages an aggressive Commander deck which you don't see too often. If I didn't already have a super fun red-black deck, I would make a Rakdos deck for sure.

Selesnya

Finally we have Trostani, Selesnya's Voice. This guy is pretty sweet. He allows for a dual-themed deck with his life gain and his populate ability. I plan on using this guy as a Commander and taking advantage of both abilities. He's also pretty durable with five toughness, and cheap at only four mana. I'm excited for this one.

Final Thoughts

I'm very much looking forward to this set, both for Limited and Commander. It has plenty of exciting cards and legends to bolster existing decks or create whole new ones. There are also several versatile utility cards, which are generally so vital to Commander decks.

One of my next articles will cover the creation of a new deck using one of these fantastic new commanders. Check back in the coming weeks to see what I can brew up!

Insider: Buy Low, Sell High

Posted on September 24, 2012January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Every indicator suggests that Return to Ravnica is going to be a blockbuster set. I have never seen booster boxes pre-sell so rampantly and I’ve never seen so much excitement about the power level of so many cards in the set.

To be a successful speculator, it’s often optimal to reign in our enthusiasm and keep our emotions in check. For some of the reasons I’ve discussed in my previous articles, we cannot let our irrational tendencies get the best of us during a time with so much hype.

It’s actually quite similar to the stock market – I always strive to sell during market rallies and buy while everyone else is paranoid. This requires nerves of steel at times, since it’s difficult to dump tons of money into an asset that is shrinking by the day. But if you have confidence that the market will once again hit new highs, you should rest assured that your stock will be safe as long as you’ve purchased shares in a strong company (chart from Yahoo Finance).

What I’m trying to get at is the fact that Magic right now is at one of these peaks. Return to Ravnica is expected to sell better than any previous set, and Magic’s player base will be at an all time high. We can use some concepts from economics to assess what moves we should make with our Magic collection in anticipation of the anticipated spike in popularity.

Sell High

Many Magic Cards, much like the S&P 500, are nearing their highest highs. As tempting as it is to jump in on these rallies, it’s often a risky endeavor to buy near such peaks. So keeping this in mind, let’s evaluate some cards near their highs that perhaps should be sold for profit taking while the selling is good.

First, take a look at Woodland Cemetery’s chart from blacklotusproject.com.

This card has risen in value so quickly that blacklotusproject can’t even keep up with the price. The card is retailing for $14.99 at Star City Games and it’s averaging $11-$12 on eBay. This is my number one sell call as of today. Zendikar Fetch Lands barely broke the $14.99 mark on Star City Games, and I bet you the Black/Green Verdant Catacombs didn’t reach these heights. There are more players in the game nowadays to drive demand up high, but it’s very unlikely you will have such a guarantee to make $10+ selling these than right now.

Blacklotusproject.com has had difficulty keeping up with another card’s price jump: Falkenrath Aristocrat

This card has gone from nearly bulk Mythic status to sold out at Star City Games for $17.99. I understand this is a sweet Mythic Vampire from an underdrafted set. There may even be some additional upside because of this. But holding onto your copies of this card in the hopes that it hits a “52-week high” every day is a bit reckless.

If you’re risk-averse like me and you’ve already doubled or tripled up on this card, take some profits off the table now while you can sell some copies of on eBay, keeping just a few behind only if you really think there’s more upside after Standard rotates and the entire metagame shifts.

I wanted my last sell suggestion to be an Eternal card. I thought extensively about what Legacy staples would be wise sells at this point. And while there may be a few, nothing was nearly as compelling as Standard cards. It just goes to show you how robust Legacy staples truly are cost-wise. So for the Eternal fans out there, you’ll probably be more interested in the Buy Low section.

The final Sell High suggestion I have is one that according to blacklotusproject.com has already begun a gradual decline.

Bonfire of the Damned got a lot of attention during its spike. But since Return to Ravnica spoilers began, I haven’t heard much about this card. Yet it’s still selling for $35 at auction! Like Falkenrath Aristocrat, this Mythic Rare is also from an underdrafted set. But I am more confident that selling Bonfire now is a good move versus the Vampire.

You could almost create a rule of thumb here: if blacklotusproject has caught up to the price hike of a given Standard card, there’s a good chance the hype is over. Perhaps this is worth expanding on in a future article…

Buy Low

If many hyped Standard cards are near highs, something else must be near price lows. I’ve got a couple ideas of what to buy across multiple formats.

Although it’s been mentioned before, I want to emphasize how cheap Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands are right now (chart from blacklotusproject.com):

When Modern was announced, everyone swooped in and bought tons of Ravnica Shocklands. But most people, including me, ignored Filterlands from Lorwyn block. I think, perhaps that was a mistake…

Take a look at the blacklotusproject.com chart for Mystic Gate, the Filterland parallel to Seachrome Coast:

Since Mystic Gate rotated back in 2009, the card has doubled in value. Filterlands see play in Modern and EDH, and so their value has gradually increased much like many Eternal cards do. I see no reason why the Fastlands wouldn’t follow the same pattern. I bought a set of 20 of these just last week at under $3/land and I hope to acquire even more through trades once Return to Ravnica is released.

That’s not all I’m buying into, however. I am also buying a relatively under-appreciated Dual Land: Bayou. The Black/Green Dual Land just has not kept up with the increases of its counterparts, and with the printing of Abrupt Decay, I feel like Bayou should eventually catch up. Take a look at the comparative chart from blacklotusproject.com, which highlights my point.

It seems that in winter 2010/2011 and again in spring 2012, Bayou missed out on a rally that some other Dual Lands participated in. Much like the gold/silver ratio inevitably returns to a mean, I feel the Underground Sea/Bayou and Scrubland/Bayou ratio should also revert back to its mean.

Lastly, I want to mention a card which, barring a major reprint in a Dual Deck, is destined never to drop in price again. Of course I am referring to Jace, the Mind Sculptor (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

While at its peak of almost $90 at auction, this card was the best form of liquidity you could own. The card was literally worth its weight in gold. After its banning in Standard and then Modern, the card saw a dark time where it was worth a “mere” $50. But as time passes, this card will eventually continue its climb. It may never hit the $90 price tag it held during Standard, but the scarcity of this card is a universal truth and you’re more likely to find Dual Lands in a player’s trade binder these days.

It’s Opposite Day

The main message to take away from this article is that I always strive to do the opposite of the market. This applies to my strategy in the stock market as well as the Magic Card market. Buying surefire staples like Scars Fastlands is such a wise investment while their at their “52-week lows”. By the same token, selling those hyped cards near their “52-week highs” is sure to net you ample profit.

Is it easy to time your transactions perfectly? Certainly not. You can drive yourself crazy trying to sell your Standard cards at their absolute peak, just like trying to pay the lowest amount possible on eBay for a Bayou will drive you insane! The key is to get in while no one is talking about a solid card and to get out while everyone is talking about a solid card.

Back by popular demand, here’s another set of random facts I’ve noticed recently in the Magic Finance world.

Star City Games is sold out of NM Umezawas Jitte at $29.99 and they are buying the card for $15. According to blacklotusproject.com, the average price on the Jitte is $16.75 and I have seen multiple auctions on eBay ending at around $15.
Karakas is retailing at $100 for NM English copies. Star City Games is buying NM Italian copies (yes, Italian) for $50, despite the judge foils. Wow.
The price on Clifftop Retreat has dropped to $7.99 at Star City Games and they can still be had for $5. This is the only Innistrad Dual Land I’m still actively buying, but only copies at or below $5.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Rotation Pickups on MTGO

Posted on September 21, 2012January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Online prereleases for Return To Ravnica (RtR) are expected to be firing by Friday the 12th of October. As soon as they begin, cards from Scars block and M12 will rotate out of Standard. Rotation has a large effect on the price of cards because Standard is the most popular constructed format. Come the middle of October, cards like the Scars duals, Green Sun's Zenith and Sword of War and Peace will have less utility and a price drop can be expected.

Many players have already anticipated this loss of playability. Sword of War and Peace has been on a rapid decline since the end of June. For speculators though, the absolute best time to buy up cards is approaching. Cards that were Standard staples from Scars block and M12 will soon be on sale as players sell their copies for whatever they can get. Eternal formats have been picking up lately online, but most players still play Standard or draft. And in order to draft, players need packs and tix, and when cards can't be played in Standard anymore, they quickly get sold into the market.

The Fetch Lands

Last year it was no secret that QS writers and forum dwellers were excited about the opportunity that came with Zendikar block rotating. The fetch lands were going to be on sale and these lands are all-format staples. It was a can't-miss opportunity. Marsh Flats, Verdant Catacombs and Arid Mesa all touched or dropped below 3 tix last year.

The bottom for these was the first week after Innistrad release events started. Although these three fetch lands are definitely lower tier, the recent interest in Legacy and Classic has driven up prices on all fetch lands. It took close to twelve months, but buying in last year on these lands would have yielded a nice profit at this point.

Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn were much more profitable due to their utility in Modern. Last year's PTQ season drove up prices enough that these cards nearly doubled in price by January of 2012. Playability in Modern matters. This is key when deciding which Scars block cards to invest in. If they are fringe or unplayable in Eternal formats, then stay away. Staples are what we are after. There might not be cheap fetch lands to gorge on this year, but there are a few good opportunities waiting.

Highlights from Scars block

Scars of Mirrodin

Mox Opal: A staple mythic, this is used particularly well in Affinity, making it the fastest in Modern constructed. The price of this card has been increasing lately, probably due to the recent interest in other Eternal formats, but regardless it should be looked at as a very solid investment. If the price weakens in October, be ready to buy.

Wurmcoil Engine: This card sees play across all formats. In particular it is used in the Modern R/G Urzatron deck which uses colorless mana to power out enormous colorless threats. I was concerned about the Urza's lands getting the axe in the banned/restricted announcement this week, but they dodged that bullet, so full steam ahead on this card.

Fastlands: These have been quickly coming down in price along with most of the cards that are rotating out of Standard. They have their place in Modern, particularly Seachrome Coast and Blackcleave Cliffs. Modern is tempo oriented so having dual lands that come into play with no drawback in the early game is important. These fit the bill and they are all going to be down in the 0.5 to 1 tix range. Backing up the truck and loading up on these is a good long term bet, with some potential for profit in the upcoming Modern season.

Mirrodin Besieged

Inkmoth Nexus: Real estate is a great investment in Magic, and this particular piece will be used in Modern Affinity and by casual players everywhere seeking to apply 10 poison counters to their opponent. The bottom on this one will be tougher to judge than the fastlands, but see what it reaches in the 3rd and 4th week of October. This is another card that will be a good bet in the long term, with some potential for short term gains.

New Phyrexia

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite: The most played praetor is also the most expensive. This card will have applications in any type of reanimator strategy and will hold long term appeal to casual players. This card compares favorably to the Eldrazi monsters such as [card Kozilek, Butcher of Truth]Kozilek[/card].

Kozilek and many of the other Rise of the Eldrazi (RoE) mythics have seen steady increases in their prices since they rotated out of Standard. New Phryexia compares well to RoE as both are 3rd sets and both have a number of powerful cards and large monsters such as the praetors and the chancellors.

Karn Liberated: A 4-of in R/G Urzatron in Modern. This is a good short term bet. Buy these during the RtR release events, anticipating to sell them by December when the Modern season starts. Online PTQs drive short term prices quite a bit, and this is a card that could see large price spikes due to it being a 3rd set mythic and a 4-of. This is another card that would be correct to back the truck up on.

Mythics for Redemption

In this article, I discussed the motivation for buying junk and low-priced mythics as a means to profit on demand from redeemers. In the following week's article, I suggested the New Phryexia praetors as good speculative investments. The best one so far appears to be Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger which has recently started increasing in price.

For mythics that aren't regularly played in Standard, price bottoms have no strong reason to coincide with the release of the Fall expansion. For this reason it is important to pay attention to prices in and around rotation, not just after RtR is released. All four of the cheaper praetors are still good investments, with [card Sheoldred, Whispering One]Sheoldred[/card] and [card Urabrask, the Hidden]Urabrask[/card] still near their bottom.

Although Karn Liberated is the most played of the planeswalkers from Scars block, all of the others have some appeal and are just about bargain priced at the moment. Looking at Nissa Revane's chart since that card rotated out of Standard gives us some guide as to where the price of [card Koth of the Hammer]Koth[/card], Elspeth Tirel, [card Venser, the Sojourner]Venser[/card], and [card Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas]Tezzeret[/card] might be headed over the next year.

Pauper Special

Pauper is a format that has seen consistent play on MTGO for years. Even pros pick it up now and then as it is an Eternal format that feels closest to basic Magic. Getting a two for one is about as good as it gets in Pauper and it feels great doing so! Poison strategies are feared in Pauper so there are a few potential pick ups from Scars block.

Mutagenic Growth and Glistener Elf are both staples of Pauper Poison. Scouring the classifieds for cheap copies of these cards might be time consuming for most, but it can be a fun way to dip your toes into speculating. The big caveat is that seeing large gains on these is unlikely and they should be treated as very long term holds, 2+ years at minimum.

Gitaxian Probe is a little different. It appears in Pauper Storm decks, but also has cross format appeal. Again, buying commons on MTGO is not the quickest way to earn a profit, but packing away a few of these for the distant future is sure to yield a pleasant surprise down the line.

Get interested in buying rotating cards during October. While players are cracking packs and enjoying the new cards from Return to Ravnica, this is when speculators should be paying attention to what is old and out of favor. Once Modern season rolls around, many of these cards will be back in demand. Also, redeemers will be looking to finish off their sets. Buying these cards in and around rotation ensures you are not overpaying for them and their are plenty of reasons to expect profits down the road.

Insider: Looking Forward, Looking Back (and Valakut!)

Posted on September 20, 2012January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Edit: Since I initially composed this article, Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle has been unbanned in Modern. The easy calls were in the Insider email, and I bought 19 Scapeshifts at $2 each, so I expect that to work out. I don't see a long-term spike over $7-10, though, so be aware of that. I also like Blood Moon as a possible hate card to tick up in popularity as it fights both Valakut and Tron. Now for your regularly scheduled article.

I want to divide this week’s article into two parts. The first is some financial thoughts on the spoiled cards so far in advance of my usual set review/prerelease primer next week, and the second half is, at least to me, more interesting.

I want to look back at Scars block and start talking about what cards are now good pickups as the set rotates. Basically everything in Ravnica is selling too high, as is usually the case, and the upside on the Innistrad duals has already been realized, so I’m off to look for the next opportunity. Which comes from going backwards.

First, the new Ravnica cards.

First off, I really like Collective Blessing, because it is only going for a dollar. The new Keyrunes also play well with this theoretical deck, and it’s a reason why I still really like Sigarda, Host of Herons. I understand Zombies is the biggest thing coming (I really do), but these G/W/X decks can easily go 1-3-5 on the mana curve and hit Sigarda on Turn 3.

That’s obviously not game over or anything close to it, but it’s very powerful. Add in some Gavony Townships, Collective Blessings, Lingering Souls, Charms and so on, and there’s a deck coming together there.

I also think Zombies is going to be insane. There are so many tools for aggressive decks, from RB to GB to Jund-colored strategies. We wrote off Huntmaster, but it’s possible we’ll see a comeback since he’s so good against these strategies.

Angel of Serenity is also way up since its spoiling (and subsequent Insider blast). I don’t think it will hold its pricetag at $15. Though the card is playable, it’s expensive and I’m just not sure the slower decks that could take advantage will have a place in the metagame, at least early.

Another recently spoiled card, Rest in Peace, is worth noting. It’s yet another card to hate on Graveyards, though this one does cost a card to do so. It’s also worth noting that it combines with [card\]Energy Field[/card] in Legacy, though so does Leyline of the Void. Maybe this card being in White rather than Black will make a difference and it’ll be worth picking up foils early, so keep that on your radar.

Past that, I need to get in some more testing with individual cards before my review next week, so that’s where I’m at on Ravnica.

What I do have, though, are some Scars picks that I think give us a lot of opportunity right now. Let’s begin.

Lands

There’s probably no better opportunity in Magic right now than getting in on Scars lands for super cheap. Cards like Blackcleave Cliffs and Seachrome Coast are heavily played in Modern. We’ve seen what that’s done to Zendikar fetchlands, and, while the effect won’t be as pronounced, it will be there. The pair of those is around $5 most places you look, and I expect that to fall to $3-4 in the next month or so while people rush to Ravnica cards.

That’s where the opportunity will be. People are already trading these around $3-4, and I think it’s hard to lose at that price. Two to three months from now people are going to realize they still need these for Modern and they will come back. I’m not sure how much the prices could spike this year, but it will stabilize them and then they will begin to go back up.

Asceticism

This has always been casual gold, and pretty soon it will really start to dry up from binders. This is going to be a $5 card in just a few years, and you need to start getting these (if you haven’t) before you lose the opportunity.

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

Interestingly, this is cheaper at SCG ($10) than TCGPlayer ($11.50). This is a Mythic, an EDH card, an Eternal card, a casual card… it hits all the checkmarks. Wait for this to drop in the coming months and then move hard.

Etched Champion

This already went through a spike last year, but it’s pretty much the all-star of the Modern Affinity deck. It’s between $2-3, but I watched these trade at $5-6 during Modern season. Affinity is a cheap deck for people to get into, so don’t be surprised to see these spike back up in popularity every year.

While we’re on this note, grab Memnites as well. It’s probably worth a little more than you’d think.

Mox Opal

Another really good pickup. This thing was around $20 forever, but it’s fallen all the way to $12 on SCG. Not only are Moxes always worth money, this card sees legitimate play. Like this for trade around $10.

Darksteel Plate

You already know this card is not bulk (and is good for a dollar bill from a dealer), but it’s about to become even harder to find.

Green Suns Zenith

This is probably the best card on this list to pick up. I like it at $5 (or less), since it’s a Legacy staple, even if it’s banned in Modern. As such, foil copies are probably your best bet.

Consecrated Sphinx

As long as this doesn’t get banned in EDH, its price is going to keep going up after the initial post-rotation drop.

Sword of Feast and Famine

This hasn’t seen a home in a while, but it’s still a Sword, and like the others in the cycle, will hold long-term appeal.

This is also probably the most likely from the block to see Legacy play, so that will buoy its price higher than the others.

Birthing Pod

This is another very solid pickup, since it’s a huge Modern staple. I expect this to double (it’s $3 now) over the next couple of years. Now that more people will have access to Shocklands, the barrier to entry into Modern will be even lower.

Surgical Extraction

This is sometimes played over Extirpate in decks that want the effect, and is always a card type popular with casual players.

Karn Liberated

This is going to hit Nicol Bolas levels soon. If that doesn’t make sense to you, keep in mind the Planeswalker version of Bolas was $20+ for a long time until they destroyed him with reprints. Karn seems a little less likely to be reprinted, since he’s not the Big Bad of the Magic multiverse. Really like picking these up in the next few months and hoarding.

Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger

Huge EDH card here. Already $3.50 on SCG and will be pushing past $5 in not much time at all.

Return to Ravnica looks awesome. But remember, there’s a lot of money to be made in the market where people aren’t looking, and that’s rotating Scars cards.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Ravnica Standard!

Posted on September 20, 2012September 20, 2012 by Mike Lanigan

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Ah... so many sets rotating from Standard legality is like a breath of fresh air.

Pause and take a moment to think about experiencing a brand new format.

Wait, What’s that?

Oh, right, Zombies, one of the current tier one decks is still legal. If anything, it gets better because of these sweet cards:

But at least Delver is dead. Everyone is so disgusted with playing against Delver of Secrets. It is a relief that will no longer be the best deck.

Wait again.

Oh, right, that is the deck I'm talking about today. Hmm.

Updating Delver

Yes, you may be sick of Delver but I am here to tell you it's not dead. The Azorius guild gets some sweet cards in the new set that will replace cards Delver is losing.

Obviously the most important card rotating out is Ponder. As of yet, there is no replacement for this effect. I doubt Wizards will print something as powerful as Ponder or Preordain again, but I would not mind seeing a Sleight of Hand reprint or even something like Telling Time. Balancing the power level of Ponder by adding a mana to it seems an easy fix.

We are not going to be able port the deck card for card but there are some easy replacements like Unsummon for Vapor Snag. Take a look at my tentative list.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Geist of Saint Traft

2 Lyev Skyknight

Spells

4 Thought Scour

4 Unsummon

4 Inaction Injunction

4 Azorious Charm

3 Syncopate

2 Sleep

2 Runchanters Pike

Lands

4 Hallowed Fountain

4 Glacial Fortress

2 Moorland Haunt

2 Cavern of Souls

7 Island

4 Plains

My opinion, as of now, is that the deck should stay two colors. This may change later, but right now this is where I am at. Adding either red or black would be quite easy with the non-basic lands that are available. Of those two options, black is the most appealing to me because of Lingering Souls. This list is not set in stone either. I'm sure card choices will change once I see the full spoiler.

One new addition that I think is amazing in the deck is Inaction Injunction:

This card fits perfectly into a tempo deck's game plan. It may not force the opponent to replay their threat like Unsummon, but it's also a cantrip. Later you can even flash it back with Snapcaster Mage! It is possible that too few decks will run enough early creatures to warrant playing four copies, but I still think the card is good. I was wishing for this one even before I saw it on the spoiler.

Azorius Charm provides a similar effect except rather than you drawing a card your opponent draws one less card. It is unclear whether we need both Inaction Injunction and Azorius Charm, but both are quite good.

A few cards I decided not to include but I am keeping in mind while working on the list. One of the main cards that did not make it is Feeling of Dread. I like Feeling of Dread quite a bit, but I think it does not belong at the moment. My opinion may change later, but I think this flashback spell fits better in a deck like Blue White Control rather than a Delver deck.

Restoration Angel was another card that did not make the cut on the first pass. I think the new flier Lyev Skyknight is really good so I am trying it out instead of the angel. Switching back is easy enough if Skyknight doesn't work as well as I would like it to.

Finally, Talrand's Invocation was one of the last cards I cut from the initial list. I know it has not seen play yet, but I think it is good enough for Standard. Since it is a sorcery that makes creatures, it would fit well with Delver of Secrets. If I was playing double drake, as I like to call it, I would be inclined to also add black for Lingering Souls.

I don't want to go on and on about Delver because it feels like the same old thing we've heard for the last however many weeks on every Magic site. My gut tells me that players will eventually be just as tired of opponents saying, "Azorius Charm your guy" and following it up two turns later with, "[card Snapcaster Mage]Snapcaster[/card] flashing back Azorius Charm."

Updating Zombies

I know that at the beginning of the article I insinuated the new Zombie deck would automatically be black and green. The question remains unanswered though and we cannot be sure if green is the correct choice. Take a look at a red version.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Gravecrawler

4 Diregraf Ghoul

4 Rakdos Cackler

4 Rakdos Shred-Freak

4 Geralfs Messenger

4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

Spells

3 Tragic Slip

4 Sign in Blood

3 Flames of the Firebrand

2 Bonfire of the Damned

2 Murder

Lands

4 Blood Crypt

4 Dragonskull Summit

3 Cavern of Souls

11 Swamp

By no means am I asserting that this red version is better than the green version, I am just offering it as an option.

This version seems even faster than the green one, which is a huge benefit. You also gain a variety of burn spells. In the little time I have worked with the green version, I noticed that often you get your opponent down to a low life total and then have no way to finish them off. This would rarely happen with the red version. I was able to run less lands as well because my mana curve is lower overall. With no Pyroclasm in the format, a deck with such a low mana curve may be very punishing.

My friend and I have been developing a Jund Rock deck similar to what Gerry Thompson and Brad Nelson have been working on but we do not have a finalized list yet. Maybe next week I will have something for you guys on that front as well. There are a lot of options to explore with all of the new cards. Limited PTQ season is underway as well so hopefully I will have some good stories from those events as well.

Until Next Time,

Unleash that deck building Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: The Devil’s in the Details, Part 1 of Who Knows

Posted on September 19, 2012January 17, 2022 by Tucker McGownd

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It's Too Early to Review These Set Reviews!

To start with, I’d like to lead by saying that most of the spoilers have been pored over by a plenitude of speculators, investors, traders, dealers and writers. If you haven’t read the rest of the QS content for the last couple weeks, I definitely recommend it. Both the new and the old names on the site have put forward some excellent points, and it looks like the inevitable rotation has kicked our creative juices into high gear.

To rehash: Zombies is obscene, Abrupt Decay is damn good but probably best in Legacy, new angel seems solid but expensive, Rakdos's Return is probably less playable than I think, and Snapcaster Mage has the potential to be totally awesome.

Just to cut off the urge to run to eBay, this doesn’t mean his price is going up much, if at all, but the utility of flashing back Dreadbore, Abrupt Decay, Mizzium Mortars, Unsummon, new super Unsummon, Counterflux, any and all charms... there seem to be a wealth of opportunities for our friend Tiago to shine. Sadly he already commands a high price for a rare and already sees Legacy play, so it seems unlikely that his price will see a significant enough jump to be worth putting real live money into.

Nevertheless, if I’m right, I recommend trading for them because of their liquidity and heavy standard play. If I’m wrong, even with a slight drop he remains a strong long term investment.

On a related note, don’t trade the foils away. I have high hopes for their value in the future. Legacy hard to find foils don’t drop in value regardless of playability, and highly played ones get obscenely high far more quickly than you’d think.

Herein Lies the Rub

Let’s talk for a minute about trading, however, and how to approach it in a world with increasingly prevalent technology. I don’t know about you, but I’ve noticed an alarming (for me) trend concerning the increase of smartphone trading over time. I recently spent some time at SCG Open Minneapolis, and almost three times as many trades I made involved a phone as didn’t. As a person who makes his money by inches, this is horrifying. As such, I’ve been working my patootie off trying to come up with a workaround.

Kotr — Quite Right, Apathy House, KoTR IS Worth Less as a Foil.

Unfortunately, the most consistent method seems to also be the most difficult. My next project will necessarily have to be a cross referencing of prices via different sites, and a construction of the ratios between buylist values and price determinators like Apathyhouse.com, which is a favorite of the MOTL crowd, and the semi rationally priced magiccards.info.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of universal knowledge as a general rule, but these sites cause a lot of problems in trading.

Too often the trade comes down to dimes and quarters over the course of many minutes, and only rarely is it worth the time it took to a probably fair conclusion. For those of you who haven’t dealt with this, here’s what typically occurs: One or the other of you shows interest in trading, and the search begins. A collection of cards lies on the table and what would normally would be a few minutes spent hashing out a hypothetically small trade is instead an ordeal as your trading partner looks up each magiccards.info value on his smartphone’s mind numbingly slow internet.

Can You Tell I'm Spiteful?

Trades will typically fall into two categories - a trade worth money and a trade that’s really not. The first are your trades for multiple Legacy pieces, a couple of duals, a large stack of Standard staples. The second is a couple of interesting cards, the majority of which aren’t worth much. You might need that one Woodland Cemetery for your deck, or he might want your foil Lich-lord of Unx for an EDH deck. While this is what I advocate making your trading strategy based around if you intend to grind for value, it’s also the area of trading where smartphone trading is most abrasive to me.

It would seem at first glance that this is ridiculous. Why should I care when the stakes are so low? Why not be more irritated when the trade is for Wasteland? A playset of LEDs? With so much money on the line, it must be frustrating to see their undervalued dual jump in price by 20 dollars as their phone obnoxiously points out their mistake. Simply put, you can’t know everything. Sadly, my knowledge of Legacy prices isn’t perfect - very few people could make the claim that theirs was, and fewer still could back it up.

As such, I’m far more worried about losing money than I am making it in that particular field. Think about this from a logical perspective - if all bets are off, you have chances to make or lose money on mispriced cards. If every card’s value is known information, what’s there to lose? No matter what, you can trade for strange unknowns, safe in the knowledge that if all else fails, you can use eBay closed auction values and be happily secure.

I actually try to make Legacy trades as even as possible, since they’re the ones people watch, and those are the values I’m expected to know. In addition, those are the ones that hurt the most when they go wrong, so the 20 dollars I might make is quite bad for business.

People remember when you try to take advantage of them, and just as much when you try hard not to. Instead, since Standard trades are where I make my money, the problems smartphone trading cause are irrefutably frustrating

What Is This? Econ Class? LAAAAAAAME.

A high profile high end card like Taiga will see dollar values on eBay, in stores and on price compilers. The differences between prices will be consistent - you can always depend on an eBay price lower than the compiler by a standard amount, and lower than retail by another consistent number. Because price matters so much, and the value is higher, prices are forced to standardize to conform to expectations and demands.

Bored in Class — Please Don't Be This Bored. I Try So Hard.

Contrarily, the same thing that makes low value Standard cards easy targets for grinders simultaneously make them hair wrenching to trade for when the guy on the other side of the table is smartphoning.

Because of their fairly low value, people will buy them at very different prices - a slew of people willing to buy a card for 2.00 on the internet when it retails at 1.50 will bump the price by as much as 30%, an appalling difference between its true value and its short term perceived value.

Thus, the problem becomes exactly the opposite of the Legacy situation - when you win, you don’t win much, and there’s very little chance of winning. Nevertheless, there’s a chance that you’ll lose, which makes this approach difficult, erratic and aggravating.

Simply knowing your values is no longer enough, and while you can still commit to the strategy in the hopes of making your money back, even assuming every trade is as good as it could be without smartphones, the time it takes to look up all 8 cards in the trade significantly limits the number of trades you can make.

Wait... Is That... An Actual Solution? My Time Wasn't Wasted?

The first thing I’ve found is that being forceful, but not pushy, will work wonders. Unlike the use of Star City for all of your pricing needs, rarely do price compilers churn out easy to remember, stable, or even even numbers.How do you trade a card at 1.16, one at 3.72 and one at 5.08? It ends up being practically identical retail and in some cases buylist, but God forbid if the guy with the first two feels like he’s being taken advantage of for the second, at a difference of 20 cents.

This is, of course, an exaggeration, but it seems that anything over about 40 cents difference makes people squeamish, and this means that in trying to balance the scales against all probability, the end result is that I give them 30 cents instead to make them feel more comfortable.

Saying I can trade for that at 3, that at 2, that at 5, and that at 9 always made me feel like a bit of a shark. Nevertheless, I’m coming around to that way of thinking. I’ve lost more than one trade this way, but it’s becoming more and more my approach to say things like ‘I’m willing to trade at that number, but because I think the card will go down, I’ll only trade for it if I get this card too.’

I first tried to round values up and down depending on playability, but too often I would get fed up people demanding my rounded down cards for their rounded up cards, and trying to game what little system I had in place.

Oh, a Cliffhanger. How Original.

As is readily apparent, this is an ongoing process and not nearly complete. Sadly it's taking longer than I'd like to get the data I need to come to a firm conclusion, but the more of this thought process I can get out into the community the faster we can come up with an effective way to approach this problem.

I absolutely want to keep you involved in the evolution of my approach to smartphone trading and to hear what you have to say - is this as much of a problem for you as it is for me? Are there ways you approach trading in which you differ from me? How do you feel about smartphone trading, and its implications on MTG Finance?

I look forward to reading what you think in the comments and continuing my odyssey (hyuck hyuck) in the future.

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Marvel Super Heroes

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Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

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Shocklands

Abrupt Decay

Innistrad Lands

But I want new cards!

New Standard

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Today’s mission: Build decks with Armada Wurm!

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The Acceleration Effect

Framing Risk

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More on Retrospect

The Retail Effect

Mitigating Your Risk

Thanks for the Tip. Now Give Us Some Alters, Monkey Boy!

SCG Invitational, You Say?

I'm Audi 5000

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Why isn't Valakut just blowing up?

Shifting Your Perspective

Prismatic Omen: Unique Effect, Great Price

Staying Out of Wargate

Burning Wish is Full of Vintage History But Lacks Action

Developing Your Speculation Sense

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Initial Thoughts

The Mechanics

Detain

Overload

Unleash

Scavenge

Populate

The Legendary Creatures

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Golgari

Izzet

Rakdos

Selesnya

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Sell High

Buy Low

It’s Opposite Day

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The Fetch Lands

Highlights from Scars block

Scars of Mirrodin

Mirrodin Besieged

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Mythics for Redemption

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First, the new Ravnica cards.

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Updating Delver

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Updating Zombies