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Insider: (Part 2) Collection Flipping – A Case Study

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I hope you all enjoyed the Prerelease! I wish I could say the same. I went 8-2 on the day and enjoyed it to an extent, but overall I was just disappointed. With no removal in the format, bombs just felt completely unbeatable, both mine and my opponents’. Not a great sealed format, to say the least. And, if you took my advice on Zealous Conscripts, I think you’ll be doing good. It’s already tripled in price since I wrote about it, and has lots more room to grow.

But that’s not why we’re here.

Almost a month ago I wrote about a collection I had recently acquired. Flipping collections isn’t something I’m new to by any means, but it’s something I don’t do often, since it oftentimes can be hard to find collections worth buying and sorting through all the issues where people are looking for retail from their collection.

That said, there’s money to be made in collection flipping, and I advocate you know how to do it in case the opportunity arises. That’s basically what happened with me, where I found a deal too good to pass up. I got the group of cards at a little below Star City Games buy prices, which is a good deal for me since I can move them for higher than that with some extra work.

Now, I would usually just flip the cards and be done with it, but I wanted to try something a little different this time. Instead of immediately, or even close to immediately selling out, I kept the cards in the box I got them in and began to trade out of it. I’m back this week to update you guys with how the exercise has gone for me.

How I did it

If you’ll remember from the previous article, there were some goodies in the collection, namely some nice cards like Thrun and a few other medium-price things, as well as a bunch of nice Uncommons and a bunch of bulk rares.

I kept the cards from this collection separate from my “regular” trade binder for the purpose of this exercise. The goal was to see if holding onto the cards and trading them out would yield enough money to make it worth the extra effort. Now, I expect to make value out of any grouping of cards I have if I’m trying to do so, the question here is whether or not it was enough value to justify keeping my cash tied up.

So with that goal in mind, I set out to trade out of the box in addition to my regular binder. I won’t lie, it felt a little Pack-To-Power-ish, even though I didn’t keep it totally separate as you would with P2P. Still, though, I needed some rules for myself if I wanted to get accurate results from this little experiment.

Here are the basic rules I set:

-       Give my trade partners the box first and tell them to pull out anything they needed. This kept the box from being an afterthought after people have gone through my usual binder.

-       Make one trade. I didn’t force myself to trade only from the box, which could have stifled potential deals. Instead, I included all the cards, and replaced the value in the box by trading with myself (my other binder) and putting most of the profits back into the box. This means if I made, for example, $10 in value on a particular trade, I put 50-75 percent, or $6-7, of it back into the box.

-       This method allowed me to keep most of the value gained “in-box” rather than just added to my usual binder. This is vital to the cashing out process.

-       Trading with myself. This was actually a pretty nice perk to this system. It allowed me to use both groups of cards for trades while still accomplishing my goal. It also let me move stuff like Rootbound Crags into my usual binder since Standard stuff will trade well, and move dealer bait like Dragonmaster Outcast from my regular binder to the box. Stuff like the Outcast will almost never find a trade anyway and will eventually be sold off to a dealer, so I’m able to allocate my profits to the box while also helping out the liquidity of my usual trade binder. I was very happy with how this worked out.

So, How Did I Do?

Well, this is the question, and one I was certainly excited to find out for myself. I haven’t cashed out all the cards yet so we don’t have a number set in stone. I plan on working through the process of physically selling the cards in the next week, and using that experience as the basis for the third and final part of this series, so any suggestions you all have there would be greatly appreciated.

But just because I haven’t sold out yet doesn’t mean we can’t evaluate roughly where we’re at. Remember, when I first got the collection (for $80), I was confident that I could make an easy $30-50 out of flipping it. Throughout the process of trading from the box, I was able to move some of the true bulk rares out, which is obviously a huge win to trade them at a dollar into something with actual buy value. This alone helped to turn more profits, not to mention gaining any significant value off of the bigger cards.

The uncommons also were a big factor. Many people don’t even carry these in their trade binders, but there were two very good deals for me that wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t had Beast Withins and Stangleroot Geist. Even if I’m just trading these away at retail and not making any “value” in the trade, turning four Beast Withins that I can sell for $.50 apiece into an $8 card I can get $5 out of is a big deal.

A quick flip through the box tells me I’ve been able to make a lot of money grinding it out on the trade tables. Just offhand I could tell that I’m up a Thrun and 5 Primordial Hydras, which if you didn’t know are at least a $5 bill retail. There are some other decent dealer bait cards like Braid of Fire and Elvish Piper.

Conclusions

Just by eyeballing what I have, I would say I at least doubled my profits on this collection by keeping the cards to trade for a few weeks. I don’t think you should let them rot in your collection for a huge amount of time, especially if you’re looking to move Standard cards like Thruns, but giving it a few weeks appears to have paid off very well. We won’t know for sure until I actually sell out, but it’s definitely been a tactic I consider a success.

In addition to the monetary benefit, it’s also helped me get over my irrational fear of tying cash up in cards. I used to feel almost guilty for spending cash on cards and not immediately recouping it, almost like I was scared the bottom would drop out. But this experience is looking like it’s going to pay off very well for me, and I have to say I would suggest you give it a shot the next time you come across a collection you’re looking to flip.

This whole thing also got me back into looking for more cash opportunities, and I was able to pick up a foil Snapcaster Mage, foil Stoneforge Mystic, and a NM- Wasteland for $72 cash for the three. I’ve rolled these into the box, which means I’m $152 into it, and excited to see what I end up making on the deal.

Come back next week, when I walk through the process of finding a buyer and whether or not to split up the cards when selling. Let me know if you have any suggestions!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Miracle or Myth?

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Avacyn Restored hits the shelves this Friday, and like so many other players I can't wait to unravel its mysteries. At the top of the list of questions to resolve is the matter of a new mechanic that has the Magic community buzzing: miracle.

Lets see if we can analyze this mechanic to get an idea of its power level and likely impact on Magic. To start, I'll look at several miracle cards separately and address their playability across various formats. Then I'll talk about the mechanic as a whole.

Look! It's (Several) Miracles!

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Banishing Stroke is quite versatile and reminds me a lot of Maelstrom Pulse. When you miracle it you can get rid of whatever is troubling you for the low cost of one mana. Later in the game, six mana is not really much to ask for this effect and its clunkiness is mitigated by its being an instant. I could see this being played in Standard, Modern and Legacy.

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When I first saw Entreat the Angels, I dismissed it because I compared it to White Sun's Zenith and similar cards. X spells that make creatures haven't seen a lot of play in recent formats. After some reconsideration though, I began to see Entreat the Angels as more powerful than its predecessors.

Look at it from the perspective of mana cost. For three mana, you get a 4/4 flier at bargain bin price. Four mana gets you two fliers and five gets you three. The key here is that at every point on the curve, a miracle-cast Entreat the Angels is undercosted. Even if it gums up your hand for a while and you have to hard cast it, seven mana for two angels is a reasonable deal. Though its place is not guaranteed, I expect this to impact Standard.

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At one white mana this certainly puts Hallowed Burial, a constructed card in its own right, to shame. Even at six mana this effect is reasonable for a control deck.

Honestly, I'm a little puzzled as to how this made it through design as such a cheap sweeper has never existed before. My worry is that this effect is too powerful in a control deck that will no longer have to use all their mana to clear the board. Now they can just set this up with Ponder and still have mana available for other controlling spells.

This may also fit into Delver of Secrets decks, because they can kill a couple problematic creatures like Strangleroot Geist or Geralf's Messenger and still have enough mana to play another threat in the same turn.

Terminus could easily see play in Standard, Modern and Legacy.

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Evacuation is a powerful effect and the miracle cost here is a giant discount. Devastating Tide effects both players but most of the time if you're playing this it will benefit you more than them. It's hard to predict whether an effect like this will see play. I would say that it depends a lot on the format and which decks are popular. It’s possible that it will see play in older formats but I think Standard is likely to be where it shines (by which I mean, of course, makes me miserable every time it is cast).

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Time Walk, you say? Wow. All I can say is, wow.

Seven mana is a lot if you miss the miracle cost, but Temporal Mastery is so powerful that it will certainly see play. I think the real home for this card will be Legacy because it can always be exiled to Force of Will. In case you needed more convincing, you even get Brainstorm to set it up. Miracles definitely get better in Legacy because of this interaction. It will see some play in Standard and Modern also.

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Just in case Vapor Snag needed companionship or competition, we now have a one mana bounce effect that puts not just a creature, but a permanent on top of the library. Since Mana Leak will be less effective due to Cavern of Souls, I could definitely see Vanishment making an appearance or two. I would imagine that Standard, and maybe Modern, may have some decks that would play this card, but probably not in Legacy.

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Bonfire of the Damned is harder to evaluate than most of its brethren. My first impression is that this will be influential in the Standard metagame. In any match characterized by creature combat, this card will break the game wide open. It's unclear whether it will be a main deck card or strictly sideboard, but it should see some play. It won’t be powerful enough for older formats though.

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As blue gets Time Walk, it makes sense that red should get Wheel of Fortune. Since we're playing fair, the red spell should get a mana discount as well, right? Well, no, not really. A two mana draw seven seems really dangerous to me. There is a reason that Wizards has not printed draw sevens very often and that is because they make broken things possible. There are a lot of cards that want your graveyard filled, and Reforge the Soul helps you do that while giving you more cards to work with. Even the five mana retail cost is reasonable enough that this should definitely see play in Standard. This effect is also powerful enough for Modern and Legacy, if it can find a home.

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Thunderous Wrath is generating a lot of buzz. One mana for five damage is unprecedented. The cheapest way to deal five damage is with cards like Brimstone Volley and Artilerize. One mana for this effect should impact Standard, Modern and Legacy.

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Blessings of Nature and Revenge of the Hunted provide similar effects. One grants you the ability to distribute four +1/+1 counters to any of your creatures. The other gives a temporary bonus of +6/+6 to one creature but also lets that creature gobble up your opponent's army. These cards are being talked about as boosting effects for the poison creatures from Scars of Mirrodin block, which is the only place I think they will see play. There's no place for this effect in Legacy or Modern.

Miracle as a Mechanic

Miracle was designed to occasionally get you out of situations that normally spell certain doom. There are many times in Magic that we fall so far behind that we know there is no chance. Usually we concede defeat and move to the next game. Miracles aim to reverse this situation and give players a shot at pulling back into a near-hopeless game.

I am unsure that things will actually play out this way in real games. Most of these cards have effects that are better at keeping you ahead than catching up.

Like most cards with alternate casting costs, this mechanic also comes with a drawback, in this case an abnormally high regular cost. In Standard and Modern this is a real issue. In these formats the only way you can mitigate the disadvantage of miracle cards is by paying the full cost or discarding them with something like Faithless Looting. When including miracle cards in a deck, it will be important to have a plan for what to do when they get stuck in your hand.

I am glad that there are no commons with miracle because they would be unbalanced in Limited. Uncommons, rares and mythics will make it so we won’t have to see them so much. Limited with these cards will be interesting to say the least.

The last aspect I wanted to mention was the color distribution of miracle cards. Did you notice that black gets no miracle cards? I guess demons and evil beings cannot grant miracles. Green only gets two instead of the normal three like the other colors. I find it a little frustrating when cycles are incomplete like this. If they had a good reason to cut black out of this mechanic, I suppose that's fine, but giving green only two cards I do not like at all.

Overall, I expect this mechanic to be both exciting and frustrating for players. Casting these cards for cheap will be a lot of fun for the person doing it, but when they're miracled against you it will be a little rough.

Hope you enjoyed this look into a new mechanic and have fun with Avacyn Restored Limited.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force of a Miracle!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Girl, You Like Foil Enchantress?

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Recently I found myself meeting several friends for dinner at a local pizza joint. They had a dinner buffet going on and beer was only $7 a pitcher. Being the sucker for value that I am, this was a hard meal to pass on. One of my friends had eaten before showing up and upon arriving asked if the rest of us were getting “just the buffet”.

JUST the buffet?

What more do you want?

I was taken aback. His question was a difficult one to parse. You can have JUST the salad. You can JUST have water. But, the buffet… the buffet is an unlimited quantity of anything, nae, everything that they serve - the actual greatest multiplicity that a restaurant can offer a patron. After several minutes of cursing I got him to retract his statement.

To be fair, the buffet isn’t always a great choice. The food is generally of a lower quality than you would get if you had something specifically prepared for you, but this is the tradeoff you make for variety - the spice of life.

One of my favorite ways to play Magic is to borrow an EDH deck from somebody and play it blindly. I do this primarily because it’s a blast, but I find that this sort of activity helps me grow as a player.

First, it introduces me to synergies that I may not have discovered myself. The last deck that I borrowed was Skullbriar, the Walking Grave. The deck featured Perilous Forays. I remembered fifteenth picking the card numerous times in Ravnica block drafts and raised an eyebrow when I saw it in the deck.

Then I drew Bloodghast. Magic is sweet.

Additionally, by playing with a wider variety of cards you get a feel for the types of things that would be good against those cards just by trying to play around what your opponents could have when you cast them. I've personally never played Faeries at a tournament, but I've played the deck a ton with my old playtest group in Winona and that has helped me immensely when it comes to playing against it.

Another benefit is that pretty much every situation that I encounter with somebody else’s deck will be completely novel. This means that if I’m going to play well, I have to constantly think about every action. When I get very familiar with a deck I start to come up with generalities on how and when certain cards should be played, and playing blindly eliminates my ability to make mental shortcuts.

One very memorable game occurred when my friend Jens and I borrowed decks from our friend Nate. I was playing a Razia, Boros Archangel monstrosity that was essentially just a pile of angels and dragons, the wet dream of Timmies everywhere and a pile of cardboard vomit to any competitive player. Jens was playing Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary as this was before he was banned as a general. A fair fight if I've ever seen one. I don’t recall what other generals were involved in the game but I know that Jens killed them.

It's on-theme because there are angels in the art.

The way the game played out: I landed a Magus of the Moat (not Moat proper because Nate is a cheapskate) while Jens assembled an arbitrarily large combo. I don’t exactly recall the cards used, but what he did was generate infinite creatures that netted him one green mana and one life for every creature. Then he cast a Hurricane for all but one of his life total. This was lethal to the other players, but I casually flicked a Congregate onto the table.

Jens had no way to deal with my Magus and no flying creatures, so we played a few turns of draw-go until he found Squall Line. That would’ve been game… if I didn’t Angel's Grace in response.

Seeing as his life total was arbitrarily large and he couldn’t attack me, he ended up drawing his entire deck and losing.

It is unlikely that I will ever play a game of Magic like that again.

Of course, variety by definition has its down side.

Worst Tournament Ever

This Saturday I opted to play in a local Legacy tournament. I was expecting a lot of random decks so I didn’t really want to play RUG Delver like I normally would. The only other Legacy deck I have cards for is Affinity, and there was just no way I was going to play that.

Unfortunately for me, my friend Forrest Ryan had an Enchantress deck that he was more than willing to lend out. I knew Enchantress was terrible, but Forrest’s deck had a certain draw to it - that is, all of the non-Moat, non-Beta Savannah cards are foil or foreign.

You may have figured this one out on your own, but the cards being foil doesn’t make them any more powerful. Foil Enchantress is the equivalent of putting spinners and flame decals on a Geo Metro. Decked out garbage is still garbage.

As I have foreshadowed so wonderfully, the tournament did not go well. Here’s a recap of the event:

Round 1 vs. GW Stax

This creature has shroud.

The day got off to a really good start with me playing a prison mirror.

It was sort of like having a staring contest with a light bulb.

Inevitably, I was going to lose and every second of it hurt. My opponent made such masterful plays as not double-Wastelanding me when he had a Trinisphere in play and trying to Oblivion Ring my Argothian Enchantress when I had no other non-land permanents in play.

It’s okay though - he didn’t need that Chalice of the Void on one anyway.

0-1

Round 2 vs. Belcher

This is always a fun matchup to play. It’s really nice when your opponent shows up with 75 cards of pure variance and non-interactivity.

I lost game one after battling against ten Goblin tokens for six or so turns before I ran out of ways to protect myself. In game two I mulligained to six on the play, and when my opponent saw that I had no beginning of game effects, he informed me that he “got this” and threw his hand onto the table. He threw some rituals down that looked like they could probably cast a Goblin Charbelcher, the Belcher itself and a Lion's Eye Diamond.

0-2

I contemplated dropping at this point, but I wanted to play at least one real game with the deck. That wasn’t exactly meant to be…

Round 3 vs. The 141 Card Special

Let's just say I hope you weren't happy with your board state.

My opponent for this match showed up with 141 unsleeved Standard legal cards. I had to pull out every trick I knew to win this one. Like casting my spells.

I boarded in Emrakul, the Aeons Torn against him because I wanted to prove that new players don’t actually like big unfair monsters. I was playing a foil copy, which meant that there was no reminder text on the card. This prompted my opponent to ask a very satisfying question.

“What does Annihilator 6 mean?”

His two Dragon's Claws protected some of his lands from my first swing, but the second got him. I had never cast an Emrakul before this game. I don’t really intend to ever again.

1-2

Round 4 vs. Goblin Combo

When my opponent sat down for this match he was talking with his friend about how nice the pair of shoes he found in the dumpster was. I mean, they barely had any holes in them. His body odor was slightly distracting throughout the match and the Camel Turkish Royals that he used as Goblin tokens were very telling. His deck featured such hits as Wort, the Raid Mother and Goblin War Strike.

Needless to say, I found a way to lose this one.

Ian Ellis was watching this match and asked if I wanted a hug after it was over. I told him that a beer would be better.

My opponent, who hadn’t left yet, agreed. Then he added that he wasn’t allowed to drink at home. Then he added that it was because he had post-traumatic stress disorder. Ian, being the nice guy that he is, asked how he got it. Then he told us the story of how his dad accidentally shot him.

I just… I can’t make this stuff up.

Mike Hawthorne won the event and we went out for pizza afterword. We were accompanied by Forrest Ryan and Jared "J-Bones Brojangles" Brown and played one of my favorite games. It’s called Jared buys all the drinks. If you’ve never played it you should really check it out.

We ended up going to some house party in the middle of nowhere which sounded like fun, considering that I hadn’t been to a party where I didn’t know most of the people in quite a while. When I woke up the next morning I discovered a sombrero full of Chex Mix on my floor. Good night.

The moral of the story is that you should always be willing to try new things - both to challenge yourself and to have a few laughs. This can lead to some bad times to be sure, but you’ll usually come out of them with a good story to tell.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan "The Dan 'More Shots' Broverton" Overturf

The Immortal Squee

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Anyone who has read this column for long or listened to many episodes of Commandercast knows that I'm a huge fan of mono-colored decks. I have a strange obsession with grindy mono-white decks that never really do much of anything, but my favorite color to build with is Red. That's because red is the color of action. While other colors mess around with ramp, removal, card drawing or other silly things, red decks just start killing everyone.

The recently spoiled Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded is an exciting addition to the red player’s arsenal in Commander. This seems like the Planeswalker made for Commander, in that it does exactly what a red deck wants. You can filter through your deck, Sudden Impact Blue players abusing Reliquary Tower and whatnot, and ultimate him for the win if people let him get out of control.

What I'm really excited about is that this gives me another way to take advantage of random discard in Red decks, which means building around Squee, Goblin Nabob. I've had a ton of fun playing Squee with cards like Survival of the Fittest and Zombie Infestation, but have never been driven to play him in red decks, which usually lack discard outlets.

Hopefully red continues to get new looting effects, which I can slot into the deck as they get released.

Let's start by taking a look at the available discard and sacrifice outlets.

For the Greater Good

  • Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded
  • Faithless Looting
  • Anvil of Bogardan
  • Jalum Tome
  • Burning Inquiry
  • Control of the Court
  • Goblin Lore
  • Gamble
  • Latulla, Keldon Overseer
  • Jaya Ballard, Task Mage
  • Ogre Shaman
  • Knollspine Invocation
  • Chandra Ablaze
  • Helm of Posession
  • Mortarpod
  • Capricious Efreet
  • Shivan Harvest
  • Culling Dais
  • Ashnod's Altar

We begin with approximately a million different ways to use Squee. The purpose of this deck is to dump Squee in your graveyard as quick as possible, and then value everyone to death. If you can put Squee to use every turn, you're essentially drawing two cards per turn. At some point, whether those cards are Shock or Insurrection, you're going to win.

So what can we do with the Goblin Nabob? The simplest thing is to turn him into other cards with effects like Faithless Looting and Gamble. This is obviously great for drawing a billion cards, but at some point you will have to win the game. Squee can help in that department as well.

You can steal creatures with Helm of Posession, destroy lands and other problematic permanents with Shivan Harvest or Capricious Efreet, and kill creatures with Mortarpod, Ogre Shaman and deathtouch equipment.

You can also kill an opponent directly by converting Squee into damage with Knollspine Invocation and Chandra Ablaze.

Before moving on, I want to explain the interaction between Capricious Efreet and sacrifice outlets. First you choose targets for the Efreet's effect. Then you can choose to sacrifice your permanent while the trigger is on the stack. Upon resolution, the effect can only choose between the remaining targets. This little trick turns your Efreet into a repeatable Vindicate. Voila!

Rising from the Ashes

  • Chandra's Phoenix
  • Shard Phoenix
  • Magma Phoenix
  • Skarrgan Firebird

The problem with running so many effects that take advantage of Squee is that there's only one Squee to go around. That's why the deck needs access to redundant effects to really get its engines going. The phoenixes generally cost more than Squee and are harder to rebuy, but they do come with an upside. They allow you to burn people out faster and kill larger creatures. It's also awesome to suit them up with deathtouch equipment to create a pseudo-Wrath.

Winning the Game

Now that we have an engine that can grind games out and kill people slowly, how can this deck go over the top and close out a game efficiently? If you're generating a ton of mana and can cast or sacrifice a few creatures, these seem like pretty good place to start:

  • Dragonstorm
  • Ignite Memories
  • Vicious Shadows
  • Rimescale Dragon
  • Bogardan Hellkite
  • Knollspine Dragon
  • Fire Dragon
  • Hellkite Charger
  • Mana-Charged Dragon
  • Moonveil Dragon
  • Hoarding Dragon

This deck will have the most trouble beating blue decks with a ton of countermagic and draw spells. Because of that, I wanted to have a mechanism of winning the game that would give those decks trouble. Storm is a mechanic that counterspell decks traditionally have trouble against once you have enough mana sources in play, and Ignite Memories and Dragonstorm seem more than capable of killing a player. You generally can't storm for more than four or five, but that's usually enough to kill the player who threatens you the most.

Vicious Shadows is your other end game. You have a bunch of creatures that you can kill off easily to generate a lot of damage in short order. Usually when you untap with Vicious Shadows in play, it spells doom for at least one player, and often more.

Regarding the suite of dragons, I tried to pick ones that have unique effects. Moonveil Dragon, Mana-Charged Dragon and Hellkite Charger represent huge amounts of damage with little setup. Knollspine Dragon generates cards, Fire Dragon and Bogardan Helkite help control the board, and Rimescale Dragon answers just about everything else.

Depending on what you expect to play against, you may want to replace one of those with Steel Hellkite, but I've been underwhelmed by Steel Hellkite recently and I wanted to try a few new dragons.

Squee's Toys

Besides Knollspine Invocation, I did want another mechanism for turning Squee and Phoenixes into removal, as well as another way to generate card advantage over a longer game. We've already committed to an attrition-based game by running Squee, so why not diversify the tools at our disposal?

  • Wurmcoil Engine
  • Gorgon Flail
  • Basilisk Collar
  • Salvaging Station
  • Phyrexian Furnace
  • Scrabbling Claws
  • Expedition Map
  • Wayfarer's Bauble
  • Caged Sun
  • Gauntlet of Power
  • Crucible of Worlds

I've already mentioned the purpose of Basilisk Collar and Gorgon Flail as mechanisms to turn Phoenixes and Mortarpod into unconditional removal. This is an interaction I've gotten a lot of grief for, both online and in actual games, but it certainly does its job. I've had more spot removal pointed at Mortarpod than at [card Sword of Feast and Famine]Sword of X and Y[/card] in my Kemba, Kha Regent deck, as shocking as that may be.

The Salvaging Station engine often makes the cut in my mono-colored decks, since artifacts can be used to approximate effects the color doesn't generally get access to. In the case of mono-red, ramp and graveyard hate. Especially with a deck that can kill creatures frequently, the value and utility offered by this package cannot be overstated.

Last but not least, we have a mana engine. Using Phoenixes as pseudo-Squees costs a ton of mana and this deck needs a way to generate enough lands for the task. Crucible of Worlds is perfect for enabling this, even when it's "just" buying back Terramorphic Expanse and Forgotten Cave.

Decks with few color commitments can also run Petrified Field and Buried Ruin to go with Crucible of Worlds. This gives you a glacially slow recursion engine, but one that is difficult to disrupt. Each of the pieces recur other pieces, and eventually will let you rebuy any powerful artifacts you need.

Stick a Fork in 'Em!

At some point your deck has to go over the top of whatever's happening and just kill people. One of the biggest problems that red has in Commander is that the only game-breaking card it has access to is Insurrection. The main exceptions to this are cards like Ruination and Obliterate, which are very much frowned upon in the Commander community.

Other colors have access to cards like Time Stretch and Tooth and Nail to win the game at ten-ish mana, while all red can muster is a litany of [card Fireball]Fireballs[/card] which cost upwards of 15 mana before they actually kill someone. So what are we supposed to do without our own degenerate spells?

  • Increasing Vengeance
  • Reiterate
  • Wild Ricochet
  • Chandra, the Firebrand
  • Charmbreaker Devils
  • Devil's Play
  • Comet Storm
  • Sulfuric Vortex

Why not just copy other peoples' spells? A copied Tooth and Nail might be a little underwhelming, but most other high-end cards like Stroke of Genius are going to be awesome. Even better, the deck has a few ways to rebuy its [card Fork]forks[/card] to get more value out of them.

When every color has access to flexible, colorless lifegain, the red deck's late game gets even worse. It gets to a point where you're obligated to run a card like Sulfuric Vortex to make sure your burn spells are still reasonable ways to close the game. Secure in the knowledge that nobody can regain 18 life off with Martyr of Sands or Wurmcoil Engine, you will be free to cast a giant Devil's Play, copy it, and cackle wildly!

Controlling the Board

The last thing needed is a way to survive while setting up and answer problematic permanents that can run away with a game. The deck is built such that, if a game goes long enough, you can grind away everyone's resources and kill them with Squee. Your goal is to get to a point where you can leverage your long-term card advantage, and these spells allow you to do that:

  • Oblivion Stone
  • Nevinyrral's Disk
  • Word of Seizing
  • Blasphemous Act
  • Shattering Pulse
  • Aftershock
  • Pyrohemia

The card that interacts best with this deck is Pyrohemia because you're pretty much guaranteed to keep it in play with all your recursive guys. It's a mana sink that gets life totals in range of your burn spells, and which can't be merely ignored by opponents.

Beyond that, there are artifact sweepers to hit pesky enchantments red usually can't answer, and Word of Seizing and Aftershock to deal with permanents you can't burn off of the table.

Shattering Pulse is the most questionable card in this deck, because its utility depends not only on how may artifacts people are playing, but also how many of them you want to spend mana to kill. Five mana is a big investment, especially for a deck that could be recurring Phoenixes or some such, so there's a real opportunity cost to killing an artifact with this spell.

Manabase

The last thing that this deck needs is a manabase that can support its absurdly expensive engine.

The easiest way to support high costs in mono-red is a basic-heavy manabase in conjunction with Caged Sun, Gauntlet of Power and Gauntlet of Might.

You could also try cutting the mana doublers and some lands for mana rocks, but I think this approach is much better. The mana doubling artifacts encourage you to build in mechanisms to guarantee hitting every land drop. If you keep hitting land drops, then your deck still functions, even if you don't hit a Gauntlet effect.

You can certainly make more space for basics if you wanted to, likely by cutting cycling lands, but I think the ability to draw cards in the late game is more important than a marginal increase in consistency.

  • Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
  • Terramorphic Expanse
  • Evolving Wilds
  • High Market
  • Forgotten Cave
  • Smoldering Crater
  • Blasted Landscape
  • Buried Ruin
  • Petrified Field
  • Winding Canyons
  • Keldon Necropolis
  • Kher Keep
  • Vesuva
  • Mouth of Ronom
  • Scrying Sheets
  • 25 Snow-Covered Mountain

The tricks here include an uncounterable sacrifice outlet for Squee in Keldon Necropolis, Winding Canyons so that you can leave up mana for shenanigans on other players' turns, and Kher Keep as a pseudo-Squee effect.

As I mentioned before, you also have a slow but resilient recursion engine built on the interaction between Crucible of Worlds, Buried Ruin and Petrified Field. This is an engine that certainly does not belong in every deck, but in a grindy attrition deck that doesn't need access to many colored sources, it is exactly what you want to be doing.

Given that the game goes long enough, this is the kind of engine that ensures that you have the last threat on the table.

With that, let's take a look at the finished decklist:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

Instants

Sorceries

Planeswalkers

Artifacts

Enchantments

Lands

25 Snow-Covered Mountain

The one thing I don't like about this deck is the lack of Squee-themed cards. Unfortunately, the only one you can add to the deck is Squee's Toy. You could probably also justify General's Regalia, but Crumbling Sanctuary isn't very good. You could start delving into cards with Squee flavor text, but that might be a bit of a stretch.

Next week we should have the full Avacyn Restored spoiler, and I'm super excited to get a chance to play with some of these cards. I'm very interested in getting some of the new utility lands to give them a shot in a few of my decks. To welcome in the new set, I'm going to do a quick rundown of some of my favorites from the new set before I get to building a budget Balthor, the Defiled deck.

If you like brain-eating Zombie goodness (and who are you kidding, of course you do), be sure to check it out!

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com

@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: Movers and Shakers in AVR

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The pre-release is over. What a whirlwind! After a multitude of sealed flights, the Helvault itself, and some drafts with prize packs. I really enjoyed getting my hands on these new cards. More importantly, I’m working on Block Constructed in preparation for the Grand Prix here in Southern California only a few weeks away. This is giving me a unique insight on what cards have potential, and which simply don’t.

Bark at the Moon

Block usually gives us some great insight as to what are going to be some of the archetypes in Standard just after rotation. While rotation is months away, stashing commons and uncommons that we expect to be played in standard down the road is an extremely profitable proposition. As Avacyn Restored is a large set, but also at the end of the block, it will be the shortest drafted format of the year. Even though we get 3 packs per draft, uncommons aren’t very easy to find in such a large set.

Cards like Wolfir Avenger pre-order for $0.50, and it is nearly guaranteed to see play. This is one of the strongest 3-drops Green has seen in a long time, and it isn’t narrow. It pairs well with a Werewolf team, because it has flash and allows you to pass your turn to flip your Mayor of Avabruck, and cast your creature on your opponents turn. Outside of that synergy, its power level is definitely constructed playable, and I expect this to be a $2 uncommon on more than one occasion.

Thunder from Down Under

Thunderous Wrath is another card I’m stashing up on. While these aren’t cheap to buy, they are uncommons that are easily traded for. After a long weekend and tons of sealed flights, people have their hands on some of these, and are more willing to part with them than you’d expect. I could see this being a card that people will pay a pretty penny for on the day of a PTQ. I’m not suggesting a buy at $2, but selling these for $3 later down the road is just a matter of time.

Human Resurgence

Kessig Malcontents is another card on my Radar. It’s currently $0.25 on Star City Games, which is as low as the Uncommons go at this point. It’s a pretty sick card in R/W humans, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the W/U humans deck in standard didn’t switch over to this archetype just to take advantage of this card.

The amount of damage it can generate is pretty unreal, and in the limited testing I’ve done there’s quite a few ways to abuse it (Like Cloudshift or Restoration Angel). I plan to nab up at least a few sets, and just see where it goes. The risk on this guy is minimal.

Hungry for Cerebrum

Another card I want to at least mention, is Appetite for Brains. This is the anti-Inquisition of Kozilek, and I expect its trade value to reflect that. IoK was the premier uncommon from Rise of the Eldrazi, and while this set parallels a lot of characteristics of RoE, this card just isn’t one of them.

I do think there is a possibility that a meta appears where this card is a necessity, but its just too narrow, and doesn’t do /anything/ in the early game. This pre-selling for so high it is baffling to me. The only thing I can guess that is causing this is poor speculations and fans of the flavor. This will be material for future proxies before long.

Angelic Mirrors

One of the rares I’ve decided to buy into is Divine Deflection. This is a powerful X spell that can really swing all sorts of games, and has uses in many types of decks. A control deck can use it to fog an attack and throw a counter punch or kill a creature, and an aggro deck can save a key attacker and get extra damage through.

I expect this card to be a huge player in the Block Constructed PT around the corner, and in turn, will appear in Standard. $3-4 is not unreasonable for a card of this power level, but I don’t expect it to be a 4x in any deck that plays it, which means it will likely sit around $2-3.

Are there other sleeper Rares that have become apparent in the last week? Are there any cards you want included on a detailed breakdown for next week? Just let me know in the comments.

Enjoy the release!

Insider: When Hasbro Profits, You Profit

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Avacyn Restored appears to be a huge success. What am I basing that judgment on? The fact that Avacyn Restored booster boxes are pre-selling now for $110 shipped!

Why is this so relevant? Normally, boxes of new sets pre-sell for in the $90-$100 range. While this only represents a 10% difference from the norm, this difference is magnified by the nearly infinite supply of Avacyn Restored booster boxes on the market.

In other words, when a supply is virtually infinite (one could preorder many, many boxes and there would be many, many more left), the price shouldn’t really move with demand. But clearly the price is moving. Hence, demand must be very high.

This is a set with great casual appeal and sufficient tournament appeal. I’m torn between buying a box to hoard for profit or buying a box to open for all the Angels. I suppose I could always buy two…

Hasbro’s Health Relative to MTG

It’s easy for MTG speculators to lose sight of the big picture. We continue our wheeling and dealing seeking out arbitrage and other profitable opportunities on the World Wide Web. We are often oblivious to the subtle undercurrents driving the entire game forward.

We have all heard statistics like “Innistrad was the best selling set ever” and “Magic is larger now than ever before”. These are likely true, but there are more quantifiable results shared with investors every quarter when Hasbro reports earnings.

Turns out Hasbro as a whole isn’t as healthy as Magic: the Gathering is. Here's a quote from the business section of www.LATimes.com:

Big summer movies such as “Battleship,” “The Avengers,” “Amazing Spiderman” and “G.I. Joe” – and the packaged toys that will be sold with them – can’t come soon enough for Hasbro Inc., whose financial situation soured in the first quarter.

Hasbro fell to a loss of $2.6 million, or 2 cents a share, compared with profit of $17.2 million, or 12 cents a share, during the first quarter of 2011. Excluding $11.1 million in severance costs following some layoffs during the quarter, the toymaker’s net earnings were $5.1 million, or 4 cents a share.

Revenue also slumped, sliding 3.4% to $648.9 million.

Of that, $289.7 million in revenue came from international markets, a 14% rise. Sales in the U.S. and Canada, however, dove 16% to $329 million.

Marvel and Star Wars-branded toys helped push sales in Hasbro’s boys category up 4%. Sesame Street and Playskool Rescue Heroes products gave the preschool segment a 2% boost.

Even though brands such as Magic: The Gathering did well, Hasbro’s games business slumped 9%. The resurgence in interest in My Little Pony couldn’t keep the company’s girls category from falling 18%.”

This does not sound like a growing organism. In the world of Magic: the Gathering, Hasbro is performing like an outdated Legacy deck – there are plenty of powerful cards in the deck, but overall the deck has fallen out of favor in light of more competitive ones.

I want to add one more quote to provide that elusive statistics on how strong Magic: the Gathering truly is right now, courtesy of www.wallstcheatsheet.com:

Felicia Hendrix – Barclays Capital: Moving on to Games and Puzzles, are you continuing to see a bifurcation in performance? In other words, how did the mega brands do compared to the rest of the business? I know you highlighted some aspects that were strong but just in general?

Brian D. Goldner – President and CEO:

Again, I think where you have the major innovations, we are seeing those brands doing very well. Obviously, BATTLESHIP is up year-over-year, MAGIC – THE GATHERING, is performing exceedingly well, up probably nearly 40% in the quarter.

There you have it – Magic: the Gathering is truly growing rapidly on the back of tremendous product.

Another Interpretation of These Results

I’m clearly not a Wall Street Analyst. I do possess some perspectives, however, that many Hasbro Analysts cannot begin to comprehend. Simply put, they have not made profits by observing pricing trends within the game of Magic itself and they have certainly not played the game for fifteen years as I have.

From my perspective, the successful expansion of Magic: the Gathering has stemmed from a few different channels.

First and foremost, casual appeal has dramatically increased with recent sets. Since players normally enter the game of Magic in the realm of casual play, this is where we see incredible growth in player base. As [unfortunately] popular the Twilight series has become, it is readily apparent that people enjoy a horror theme laced with Vampires and Werewolves. A theme around Angels and Demons in Avacyn Restored will be equally as popular.

Second, the expansion and revamping of the tournament structure has become a positive change for the MTG Community. There are certainly aspects that people haven’t fully embraced yet, such as the Planeswalker Points system, but, overall, the significant increase in Grand Prix, the elimination of the ELO system and the introduction of live coverage at major events has all made the game a spectator sport of sorts.

Players will live the thrill of the Pro Tour first hand and this will drive interest in the game.

Third, I see thriving tournament formats. Standard is the most popular constructed format and the diversity driven by recent sets has made the tournament scene a popular one. The introduction of Modern, an eternal format with “true” diversity not dominated by Force of Will and Brainstorm, has also driven tournament attendance.

The Last Reason – and the One Which Is Most Impactful to Us

Finally, with all this increased popularity and demand for cards, prices have become volatile and have yielded significant profiting opportunities. This last observation is perhaps more an outcome than a factor, but the end result is nevertheless there.

Partially driven by the mythic rare, and partially driven by increased tournament play, the value of singles on the secondary market has increased significantly. Sets are introduced with $40-$50 cards in them versus the $20-$25 cards which dominated financial conversations years ago. This has made booster packs more like lottery tickets, and, as many gamblers know, this is an addicting characteristic.

The result is the increase in booster packs being opened, which further drives Hasbro’s sales. As for older cards where booster packs aren’t readily available, the price of singles have developed the tendency to shoot through the roof once demand is sparked.

Once this demand is sparked in cards (and recent calls) like Personal Tutor and Food Chain, prices shoot up yielding profitable opportunities (charts courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).

Interrelatedness

The conclusion I draw from this review is elegant – we are largely profiting on this collectible card game thanks to Wizards of the Coast and, in tur,n Hasbro. Their dedication to growing this game has ultimately created profitable opportunities on the secondary market. For this, I thank them.

While Hasbro’s health may have historically been uninteresting or unimportant to you, I would strongly recommend taking greater interest. As a large corporation they will not make many sudden changes, but should they experience headwinds you can be assured they will slowly shift strategies.

If we seek to continue our profitable endeavors in the world of Magic, we need to make sure the game, Wizards of the Coast and Hasbro are all healthy. This enables the R&D money required to invent new sets that sell and money to invent new tournament structures. This, in turn, creates demand for cards and thus higher card prices for us to capitalize on.

Next time Hasbro reports their earnings, take a close look at how Magic: the Gathering is performing. It may not impact you in the short term, but understanding the financial health of the driving force behind everything we do in this game would be good background to have.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Jason’s Archives: Klug IAMA, 3D Alters, Stories from the Helvault & What the Heck, a Joke

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Greetings, Speculators!

The prerelease weekend has come and gone and what an exciting weekend it was. Every store where I played an event was at maximum capacity for every Helvault event. It would appear the Helvault experiment was a success. Before I move on I'd like to discuss something regarding the helvault that is really bothering me.

Regarding the Helvault

The contents of the Helvault were not thrilling for most players, and I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say that.

Apart from being unexciting, especially to Spike, power gamer and (... is there a name like that for a value trader? There is now: Kelly) Kelly, value trader, the contents of the Helvault were also 100% completely free of charge to most of us.

If your LGS charged more for a Helvault event than they have in the past, I'm sorry. That was their choice, not a WOTC mandate and you should take that into consideration regarding whether to attend future events at that store.

For the rest of us, we got completely free swag. Spike doesn't care about over-sized Commander cards of angels and spindowns, but guess what, Spike? The Helvault wasn't for you. If they made a set that was 120 creatures with the card type "Steamflogger" with no instants, Spike would go to 5 prereleases in a weekend, and Kelly would preorder 4 cases.

Like it or not, the Helvault was designed to get the casual crowd to stop playing at their kitchen tables and come to a store.

Did it work? All accounts point to yes. So why is there so much bellyaching? The major complaints are:

  1. The contents of the Helvault were unexciting/poor.
  2. Other stores got premium judge foils and we didn't.
  3. Smaller stores will suffer lower attendance because only premier stores got good Helvaults.

Of all three complaints, perhaps point 3 is the only truly legitimate one. But there is no indication that the premium Helvaults (which didn't affect attendance because no one knew about premium Helvaults until after the fact) were given to premier stores as a reward, so it's possible premier stores were selected because those stores were most likely to have the full 54 players in attendance.

If 54 seems like a weird number, it seems to me that at 2 packs per player, 54 players means 3 boxes total for prizes.

The last I will say is that you got free stuff. If you don't like the quality of the free stuff, take a minute to process how silly that position is. For all the whining about the spindowns, when I offered people a dollar each for theirs, I didn't get any takers. Curious.

Please tell me in the comment section of this article why I am wrong.

Moving on to what you came here to see.

The great Klug IAMA

Perhaps the most famous and talented card alteration artist, Eric Klug sat down to answer some of reddit.com's burning questions about his art. This is a fascinating read and I can't emphasize enough to the people who aren't interested in reading about a card painter, you will be glad you read this. It is worth the time you put in.

3D Alteration

At GP Indianapolis I had the great pleasure of having dinner at a place called "Sushi Club"  just outside of downtown Indy with a mixed bag of Magic pros, Binder Grinders and judges. Sushi Club, for those uninitiated, is a gauntlet of all-you-can eat sushi for a flat price. Perhaps Indianapolis' best-kept secret until now, Sushi Club is poised to unseat Fogo De Chao as the go-to dinner venue in Indianapolis. Who needs all-you-can eat greasy steak when you can get all-you-can eat sushi for a third of the price?

Digression aside, I found myself seated across from a very talented young lady named Lindsay Burley who, in addition to really knowing her sushi, does 3D alterations. I've seen a lot of these alters done before and they are getting quite popular with the EDH crowd. I can say without bias that Ms. Burley's cuts are the cleanest I've seen, and that has a great effect on the overall aesthetic of the card.

She got a lot of attention at GP Indy because the head judge ruled that a 3D altered Delver of Secrets was legal to use as long as there was a corresponding checklist card shuffled into the deck. Lindsay happened to have a few double-sided Delver of Secrets alters made up.

I'll make a list of cards that may benefit from this ruling:

  1. Delver of Secrets
  2. Huntmaster of the Fells
  3. Mayor of Avadid, did you not hear me say Delver? Why are we still having this discussion?

Yes, she does commissions. Yes, she is also a talented artist, capable of making you a playmat to protect your 3D Rafiq as you double strike your way into the EDH hall of fame. Yes, she has a website.

A Moment of Levity

 

In the next picture Liliana orders her army of minions to tickle Garruk into submission
In the next picture Liliana orders her army of minions to tickle Garruk into submission

Redditor thekidd142 offered an alternative to the controversial card art, injecting some much-needed levity into the contentious, ongoing debate about sexism in the Magic community. I loled. All this picture needs is a musical number from an animated Candelabra of Tawnos and you have my favorite kid's movie about Stockholm syndrome ever.

Literal Germ Tokens

Redditor awp105 submitted for our consideration some germ tokens that will tickle the fancy of the science-minded among us.

Wash your batterskull in hot water for 15 seconds before re-equipping
Wash your batterskull in hot water for 15 seconds before re-equipping

If you want to make a set of these your own, the eBay auction containing these bad boys is here.

Strict upgrades

Finally, Redditor TheCurmudgoen offers this visual guide to just how many older cards Avacyn Restored has left without a job.

 

Not featured- Lands that only tap for mana -> Cavern of Souls
Not featured- Lands that only tap for mana -> Cavern of Souls

A Fond Farewell

Prerelease weekend leaves me without any decklists to talk about, so I bid you adieu.

I will be back next week to talk about this coming weekend's lists.

In the mean time, I welcome you to brew something. Let me know what you're thinking of running in the new Standard where titans always resolve, one-mana wraths can deal with Thrun and all the thatchers want shorter weeks and better pay.

Is Champion of Lambholt as silly as I think it is when paired with Huntmaster and creatures with undying, or is he begging to eat a Slagstorm? Let me know in the comments, or follow me on twitter @JasonEAlt.

See you next week, kids!

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Avacyn Restored, Finance, Free, Web ReviewTagged 6 Comments on Jason’s Archives: Klug IAMA, 3D Alters, Stories from the Helvault & What the Heck, a Joke

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FREE Insider: I’m Wrong and So Are You – 5 Rules for Avoiding the Prerelease Poison

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Spoiler season is exciting. There’s no denying it. I’m incredibly excited, mostly because I’m not a huge fan of Standard as it sits today. That excitement leads to some terrible decisions for a lot of people, myself included. That’s what I’m here to talk to you about today.

Think of the following for a moment. You go out to a bar or club with some friends and the social lubricants start flowing. You set your sights on the Scarlett Johansson or George Clooney look-a-like across the room. What are they doing here? Why is no one else trying to get in good with them? Before you know it, you’re talking to someone you think is the hottest thing since sliced bread. It’s closing time and you think you’ve got it made with the cutest thing in the room. You end up going home with said individual and having a grand time.

But then the morning comes. Maybe you’ve been in this situation, maybe you haven’t (I’ve never been interested in a one-night-stand, personally, and now I’m married so I’ll never have this experience, for better or worse), but we all know what happens next. The early morning rays of sunlight fall across your face and drag you from your pleasant dreams only to discover a pounding headache and holes in your memory.

You realize you don’t recognize your surroundings and look around to get your bearings only to discover there is someone in bed next to you. Even a quick glance tells you that you’ve made a grievous error. How did this happen? “What was I thinking?” you ask yourself.

The answer is you weren’t. Not clearly, at least. You were intoxicated.

That’s spoiler season, in a nutshell.

You become intoxicated with the heady mix of shiny, new things and best case scenarios. Instead of a bar or club, your haunt is the rumor mill forum or Twitter, searching for the card that will bring you to the promised land and make all your dreams come true.

You set your sights on the Stoneforge Mystic or Jace, the Mind Sculptor look-a-like that went up on the Mothership on Monday. How could they print that card? Why is no one else seeing how broken that card is? You find that magical connection with a cute little card that’s the hottest thing since sliced Snapcaster. You want it. No, you need it.

You pre-order it as soon as it’s available. Release day comes and the card arrives in the mail soon after.

But then the morning comes. I’d like to think we’ve all, as Magic players, been in this situation. The early season rays of FNM fall across your face and drag you from your pleasant delusion only to discover a pounding headache and holes in your memory.

Okay, so it breaks down here a little bit, but it’s a feeling many of us have had. This card underperforms and you paid a premium for it. A few weeks later and the Planeswalker you pre-ordered for $24.99 is now $12.99. You’ve made a grievous error. How did this happen? “What was I thinking?” you ask yourself.

The answer is, you weren’t. Not clearly, at least. You were intoxicated.

Maybe you think you’re better than this, but look at it in a broader sense. If you’ve ever speculated on a flop or been excited about a card that turned out to be a dud, you know what I’m talking about. If you haven’t had this experience, that’s fantastic.

If you want to make sure you never have this experience, I’m here to try to help. Learn from my mistakes and the mistakes of others. There are a number of rules that will spare you the disappointment and shame of buying into a card you shouldn’t have.

Rule # 1:

Never buy a Planeswalker until well after release unless you know for a fact you will need it for a tournament.

This one is pretty simple, but it seems like people still make this mistake. Everyone wants to catch the next Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but I’m of the opinion that will never happen again. Wizards can’t afford for it to and they know a lot more about Planeswalkers now.

There have been Planeswalkers that you could have sold at a profit if you bought them for their pre-release price, but that window typically only lasts for a week or two, examples being Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas and Liliana of the Veil. Look at their prices now, though. Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas is $9.99. Most Planeswalkers steadily decrease in price from the moment they are spoiled.

Even the most underrated Planeswalker of all time, the one I used as my exemplary $24.99 Planeswalker above, will be at a lower price at some point over the next six months.

Tibalt, the Fiend Blooded is better than people think it is. Is it better than Garruk Relentless? Maybe, but you can pick Garruk Relentless up for under $13.00 right now. It’s just not worth it. Speculating on Planeswalkers, or even just trying to get your set early, is almost always going to be a terrible idea.

Friends don’t let friends pre-order Planeswalkers. Ever.

Rule #2:

Never buy the cards that are getting the most buzz until well after release, if ever.

Cavern of Souls? Are you kidding me? It’s a rare and it’s pre-selling for $24.99.

In the height of its popularity, Reflecting Pool demanded slightly less and that was in a set with no mythic rares. Seachrome Coast is probably the most played non-basic land that has been printed within the last two blocks and it’s $15.99.

The best rares in most sets top out at that price and normally sit in the $15 to $20 range. Those rare are also typically cross-format staples and all-stars. Even if you think Cavern of Souls will see a lot of play, it’s unlikely the price will go up. It’s much safer to hedge your bets and wait.

At worst, you can likely just pay that same price later when you know it’s a sound investment. Don’t get me started on Temporal Mastery. That card is Skaab Ruinator all over again. Skaab Ruinator went up to $30.00 during pre-orders.

Know what it is now? $1.99. Nice card.

Rule #3:

Look at the bigger picture.

Is it a big set? How long will it be the current draft format? Does it have powerful commons and uncommons? What’s the hype surrounding the rares and mythics? If you really want to be thorough, what’s the total price of each rarity?

Obviously all of these impact prices and they might not get the attention they deserve. Prices of cards from Avacyn Restored will likely settle higher than they would for Scars of Mirrodin, due to fewer cards being in circulation. Each set will typically experience an aggregate price ceiling while it is the current product being sold. If the value of the cards in the pack, on average, exceeds the cost of the pack then it creates an odd situation that the market will typically correct on its own over time.

This could mean the price of packs would go up or the price of individual cards would decrease. While in print, typically it’s the latter.

So can the market sustain the aggregate price of the cards as they sit today? For any set prior to release the answer is typically “no”. Avacyn Restored is a set with many hyped up rares and mythics. There’s no way these prices can stay this high. Expect prices to drop precipitously for any card that isn’t an immediate staple over the course of the next year or two. Then we will likely start to see the effect of a smaller supply of singles come to bear and cross-format cards will begin to tick up in price.

Rule #4:

Wait for the data dump.

The day the full visual spoiler arrives is the best day of any spoiler season. You get to see all the pretty pictures for all the sweet new cards and you get to find the cards that will make you money. The cards that are all seen for the first time in a huge clump don’t get the individual attention that the other spoilers get.

The lack of hype and concentration of data means that these cards won’t get the pricing attention they may deserve. These are the cards that are often fine to buy early on. It’s unlikely you’ll lose much money, if any, and you might catch a big break. Speaking of catching a break…

Rule #5:

Find the “sleeper”.

There are almost always a few cards in each set that people aren’t shouting from the rooftops about, but that end up being excellent cards. This is where you can make your money. This may sound difficult, but it really isn’t. The trick is to do your homework. Get on Twitter, follow great players. Read every article.

My last major success in this area was Spellskite. I thought the card looked interesting, but not many people seemed to be talking about it. It’s not a very flashy card. You don’t get to resolve it and win the game, typically. It didn’t have any crazy combo implications when it came out.

It’s the type of card people don’t get excited about.

There were a few people that mentioned it. I believe early on Gerry Thompson thought it would be a strong card. For some reason the price to pre-order Spellskites was on the order of $2.00. Even now that card is sitting at $3.49. If you pre-ordered them you could have easily sold them to a dealer at $5.00 within a month of release. That’s insane profit margin. I know quite a few people that made good money on that card.

You don’t have to find the Tarmogoyfs and Jace, the Mind Sculptors. Find the Spellskites.

There are plenty of hints about those cards for this set. My #1 pick for profit potential from this set is Entreat the Angels. Patrick Chapin likes the card, LSV likes the card. Do you need more evidence? It’s a mythic and it’s easy to get for $6.00 or less. I’ll be shocked if this card doesn’t settle at $10.00 or higher. [Editor's note: At the time of this writing, Entreat was a $6.00 card. It shot up this weekend and is now $18.]

Examples of mythics at $14.99-$15.99: Thrun, the Last Troll, Hero of Bladehold, Karn Liberated, Batterskull. I wouldn’t be surprised if Entreat the Angels saw a level of play similar to these cards. It doesn’t hurt that it’s a good Commander card and makes Angels, which casual players love.

Keep an eye on Zealous Conscripts as well. It was first offered at $.75. Now it’s $1.99. If you bought it right when it was spoiled you more than doubled your money. It may still go up. $3.00-$5.00 seems like a totally reasonable place to hit at some point. Just watch for your window to sell and try to trade for these early at rock bottom prices.

Don’t fall victim to the allure of new things. Unless you’re Patrick Chapin, there’s a good chance you’re mis-evaluating that Temporal Mastery or that Restoration Angel. Be patient and try your best to follow the rules I’ve laid out for you here. I’ve pre-ordered Planeswalkers. I’m not proud of it, but you can learn from my mistakes.

Remember, friends don’t let friends pre-order Planeswalkers. Ever.

Thanks!

-Josh Rayden
-JRDameonHv on Twitter and MTGO

Insider: Even More Modern Calls

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I'm back again this week, scouring event results for more Modern speculation calls for your trading profit. Why should you care about Modern? Even if you don't play, there is a lot of official support for the format. The Pro Tour for Avacyn Restored features Modern, as do several Grands Prix this year. Modern events fire almost every day on Magic Online, which brings us a steady feed of information. No doubt, pros are looking at these same results and compiling the best decks to bring to the Pro Tour. We've seen double-digit price changes during Pro Tours and I don't think Modern events are any different. It's the perfect time for breakout cards to shine. Let's take a look at a few that I've identified early in the lead-up.

Etched Champion

No surprise here, Etched Champion is a good fit in what we're still calling Affinity these days. I've tested many, many games against Affinity and this is probably their scariest card next to Cranial Plating. To understand why, you've got to know how an Affinity game plays out. They will usually toss out three or four cards on the first turn. Next turn, they'll play a Plating or maybe an Arcbound Ravager. This is predictable because Affinity never keeps hands without something like Plating, Ravager or Steel Overseer. Let's say you took out their initial burst of energy - you had a Maelstrom Pulse for that Plating, you Smothered the Ravager or you Mana Leaked their Overseer. The Affinity deck must now rip off the top and hope that they can get more value out of cards like their manlands. They've got to get their guys in past an increasingly more powerful opponent. If you're playing Twin and drop a Deceiver Exarch, then half their monsters cannot profitably attack you any more. Their clock is basically done.

Etched Champion changes the way the midgame plays out considerably. Affinity can now do at least two damage to you each turn and there's nothing you can really do - it's like they have a mini Progenitus out! You can't even Firespout it away! The metalcraft is laughably easy to achieve and when the deck has it, anything else off the top can be exceedingly dangerous. If they get two Champions out, they can hold one back to block your biggest monster or just race uncontested. If they draw a Steel Overseer, the game is going to be over soon. If it's a Ravager, it's over... sooner. Though some Affinity decks skip out on the card, the ones that consistently place well tend to play 3-4 copies.

Etched Champion is about $2.50 right now. It takes only little action on these to make a big profit. Remember that sometimes, it's not the fanciest deck that wins - it's the most brutally fast one. This is especially the case in Modern, since the rest of the decks are really pretty powered-down.

Volcanic Fallout

If we see more control decks emerging, it will be on the back of this card. The most important part of it is the first line. See, Snapcaster Mage has really done a number on Modern. The RUG Delver decks are really, really good. So good, they won GP: Turin recently. The deck's plan is to use Snapcaster Mage to recycle Mana Leaks while attacking with one or two cheap threats. They can drop a Delver on the first or second turn. You've got Firespout? They've got Spell Pierce. You follow on with a Damnation? They have Snapcaster on that same Spell Pierce. There's no beating the deck with normal sweepers. You've got to stick with things that they cannot interact with.

Volcanic Fallout is like a Sudden Shock that gleefully smashes everything it can for a single red mana more. It sweeps Delvers out of the sky and Snapcasters from the earth. It obliterates Elf armies and takes out timely tokens. The issue in building with Volcanic Fallout is that you really cannot depend on x/2s of your own. This means it's better for Twin decks and slower, more controlling lists. This, and not Damnation, will be what makes Mystical Teachings survive (if it can). With Snapcasters and counterspells so plentiful, racing Delver of Secrets is very hard. This card removes all of the pain.

For some reason, the Melira decks are also very popular on MTGO. These decks try to use Melira, Kitchen Finks and Viscera Seer to make infinite loops. Conveniently, most of the deck lacks big back ends. A common fallout of the Fallout is killing a Viscera Seer, shrinking a Finks and knocking off a Noble Hierarch. Not bad. The Melira deck is another one that depends on an early rush of good spells and crumbles if it has to live off the top of the library.

Volcanic Fallout is currently about 40 cents. I have several playsets at the moment and I suggest that you toss four into the next order that you get online if you've got any interest in Modern. It's a card that went north of two dollars when it was printed - and that was too late to stop Faeries. This could rise again, and it's a really cheap bet to make.

Telemin Performance

In the history of wacky sideboarding techniques, this is a favorite of mine. The idea is this - you're playing an opponent who has U/R Storm. If they aren't sideboarding into Twin, you bring these in. As soon as you hit the five mana needed, you mill them to death. Painless! You can also jam this against Tron players, taking out about 20 cards in their library and snatching an Eldrazi to ram into them, too.

OK, so I don't think it's a great strategy, but for some decks, it's the only strategy. Despite what a lot of people say, R/G Tron (with 4 Karn Liberated) is a really tough match. The deck can naturally hit Tron on turn 3-4 and from there, they play Karn, Liberace and start dismantling your board. While the Performance doesn't beat a Karn, it does give you something good to do against two of the better decks in the format.

This goes for around fifty cents right now. I don't predict it getting higher than $1-2 unless a player uses it, on camera, to kill a person on the Pro Tour. Keep this in mind, though; Bribery is north of $10 and a lot of that is due to early hype in Modern as anti-Cloudpost tech.

Vedalken Shackles

I am hesitant to suggest a card that currently sells for around $13, but I feel like this could be a real Huntmaster-style card. Vedalken Shackles, plainly, is one of the best spells you can be casting for three mana. It is quite strong in RUG Delver decks and makes appearances wherever Islands are present. If you look at the top decks, they rarely have a way to deal with this other than a Cryptic Command. It's cheap enough to protect with Spell Pierces if you have to, and when it hits, everything changes. Now, you don't want to cast that Lingering Souls so badly because Shackles will just grind the tokens out. That Deceiver Exarch needs another friend because an untapped Shackles can stop the Twin combo by stealing the to-be-Twinned creature. I expect a lot of recaps from the Pro Tour will involve someone on the ropes that comes back in with a topdecked Shackles.

On top of its in-game perks, Shackles is also by pros. Conley Woods and David Ochoa both ran Shackles in their decks at the last PT. If LSV doesn't run Tron again, I'd expect to see a few Shackles in his deck. Again, this is not a cheap card by any means, but it's not going anywhere. We see one or two well-placed decks with this in it and it can go up to Thoughtseize or Vendilion Clique levels. This is a card I'd attempt to trade for before I shelled out cash, but it's one I suggest picking up in the near future. The Shackles are both incredibly powerful and also hard to answer.

*     *     *

That wraps up my Modern calls for today. Much of the Modern metagame and tech is already known - I mean, how much profit is there to be made on speculating in RUG Delver cards? However, the fringe cards are always worth a few looks. On a side note, the fact that Time Spiral is being given out as prizes on MTGO makes me think that we are getting nearer to the "Modern Survival Kit," a hypothetical set meant to aid Modern players and confirmed by Aaron Forsythe in some fashion or another. Whether this means we'll see Tarmogoyfs come up in Duel Decks or see a Master's Edition printed that's not legal for Standard, who knows. But the influx of Goyfs onto MTGO seems entirely intentional and I predict that paper magic won't be too far behind.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Insider: Avacyn Restored Prerelease Primer

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It’s that time again! I’m pretty excited to write this article for a few reasons. The first is that this set looks awesome, and Cavern of Souls is (for now) a card I really like. Angels vs. Demons seems like a cool concept, and I’m particularly interested to see how the sealed environment plays.

The second reason I’m excited to do this primer is that I scored a home run with my Dark Ascension Primer. I called nearly all of the relevant cards from the set and hopefully made us all some money in the process.

For those of you not familiar with how I do set reviews, I start by giving you all a little credit. I don’t go card-by-card through the entire set and waste thousands of words telling you that obviously bulk rares are, in fact, bulk rares. Instead, I try to hit on the cards drawing the most hype as well as those I feel like you need to have on your radar for one reason or another, whether they be sleepers or casual hits and so forth.

I take these reviews very seriously, just as I do reviewing my picks later on. I’ll use Star City Games prices as usual since those are the most likely numbers you’ll hear tossed out on the trade floor.

Let’s jump in.

Cavern of Souls

There are a few things to know about this card. The first is that it is actually insane in any format where people play creatures. It’s that good, and is probably a 4-of in any deck that wants it (which is quite a few).

The second is that everyone inside Wizards of the Coast knows this. That means, while the $22.50 pre-sell price is probably going to actually be correct moving forward (think of a better Inkmoth Nexus), I wouldn’t be surprised to see this pop up in an Event Deck or a Planechase product or two, which will exert some downward pressure on the price.

By the way, this thing is going to be an absolute hit among casual players. Throw in the fact that this set will only be drafted for a few months, and it’s a perfect storm for an absurdly high price tag. Pick your playset up and hold on to them, and demand a premium for any you get past that.

Angels

This set is an Angel Collector’s wet dream. Pretty much every Angel in this set is worth at least stashing away in a box, and the Mythics (Avacyn, Angel of Hope and the three two-color Angels) are going to lead that charge since they have some significance to the story and feel more “epic.” Foil versions of these will be especially expensive even if none of the Angels see any play.

Divine Deflection

This is pre-selling for a dollar, and if Red decks become a Real Thing in Standard, there’s a lot to like here. This prevents a big Shrine hit or other things along those lines and even doubles as a removal spell.

Entreat the Angels

LSV says this is huge in Esper, and I can’t imagine he’s wrong. Most importantly, it’s a Mythic so the upside is going to be there, especially in the first few weeks of the set being released. It's $6 right now, and a spike to over $10 is not going to be at all surprising if it shows up at the first tournament post-release.

Restoration Angel

People have been talking about this, and I think it’s going to live up to the hype. It’s at $5 and it’s the release promo, so that will hold the price down. That said, I think this is a pretty safe target during the prerelease weekend, especially if you can get value on the regular one by the fact that there will be fancy prerelease copy easily available.

Temporal Mastery

I called this Time Reversal 2.0 on the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery. As we discussed on the cast, that’s not quite true, since EDH players will want this and it’s actually somewhat playable across formats. But with Mastery selling at $40 right now, it’s an apt comparison.

When all is said and done, this is probably $8-14. It may take a while to fall to that point, but if you don’t think it will get there, here’s a little story from testing. I’m playing RG Werewolves because it’s fun, and my opponent is playing stock Delver with a playset of Masteries. He proceeded to Miracle cast all four Masteries against me, taking four extra turns and doing his thing with Delvers.

I won that game.

Favorable Winds

Better than Honor of the Pure in Lingering Souls decks? Grab foils for free at the prerelease, since you never know.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

Preselling at $40 on SCG, which feels high to me. I think this card is pretty solid, but its place in the upcoming metagame is still a little unclear. Does this play well with Gideon? Can your deck handle two five-mana Planeswalkers? These are questions I legitimately don’t know, but I think it’s safe to say Tamiyo will be $18-25 in a few months.

Appetite for Brains

I’m not sure if this is better than Despise or not. If you figure you need to be nabbing Titans, I think Despise is better because you can also hit Planeswalkers, whereas the Hungry Zombies only hit the Titans and miss basically any other threat. Still, grab the foils if you can.

Exquisite Blood

Take a look at the card text of Sanguine Bond, since I assume you need to read it. Then look up its price. Spoiler: it’s a solid $5 anywhere, and that’s clearly only driven by casual players. Safe to say the same players will want this thing. Perfect throw-in target over the next six months to put away for a year or two.

Griselbrand

$10 presale. This is high, but it will be a solid pickup once it drops. It’s a huge EDH and possibly Legacy card, and foils of this ($35) on SCG should be your target.

Killing Wave

I initially liked this in UB Zombies, but further testing has been disappointing. It’s selling at $2.50, and I don’t think you need to move on this. It may take a little time to find the build and that’s not guaranteed to happen, so I’d stay away. This card feels like a trap in the current incarnations of Zombies, so I’d hold off for now.

Treacherous Pit-Dweller

Torpor Orb, here we come! Just joking, this card is bad, don’t move on this. It’s only a dollar right now, and that’s probably where it’ll stay forever.

Pillar of Flame

Foils of this are the way to go. It answers Gravecrawlers and Messengers permanently on the cheap.

Vexing Devil

$15 is way too high. Think Goblin Guide. Like the Guide, it will have a place in Standard and probably find a home in Legacy. Unlike the Guide, it has to compete against Timely Reinforcements. Guide was $6-8 for its life in Standard, and this won’t be higher.

Zealous Conscripts

Probably the most underpriced card in the set at a dollar on SCG, and the only one I would even think about buying for cash. Get in on this thing this weekend; it’s going to be in Standard. This thing will easily fit into Red decks and, more likely, will be huge in RG Ramp mirrors. $4-6 is not at all out of the question.

Grab these all weekend, and you won’t regret it. It represents nine points of damage at least with a Primeval Titan or 12 with an Inferno Titan. Probably going to be the most important card in the mirror, and I’ll be stocking up.

Champion of Lambholt

I like this card, but I have to imagine a world where Slagstorm is back with a vengeance, and I don’t love him in that metagame. Worth keeping an eye on but probably not moving on. It’s a buck fifty, and that seems more or less correct.

Triumph of Ferocity

I see this card mentioned a lot. I guess people really want to draw cards in Green.

Ulvenwald Tracker

I  like this thing, especially once Titans are out of the metagame. It’s a very imposing one-drop, and worth grabbing early. It’s $2 on SCG, and while I’m not sure how much upside there is at this point, I think it will trade hot on the floor once the metagame reaches a point where it’s good, which I believe will happen sooner or later.

Sigarda, Host of Herons

The power level on this card is definitely there. Once again, like everything else in the upcoming metagame, I feel like we’re back to the Titan test, which it fails.

That said, the power level on this card is insane, and there will definitely be a time when it makes its impact on the metagame. It’s pre-selling at $15, but chances are it will look something like Huntmaster of the Fells, where it dips below $10 and then spikes when it hits, even if we have to wait a while for that to happen.

---

I think that covers the important cards. If I were to call anything a sleeper in the set, it would be Zealous Conscripts, and it’s a very easy target to pick up this weekend. The usual Prerelease rules apply wherein you generally will want to trade your new cards away for more stable, older things before prices come down while at the same time targeting low-risk cards like the Conscripts.

Good luck at your Prerelease, and I hope you all enjoy whatever comes out of the Helvault!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Tempoing Opponents with Edric

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This week we’re brewing up something a little different in the Arcane Lab. Continuing the trend of tweaking decks other people have submitted, I'll look at a sweet Edric, Spymaster of Trest list Patrick sent me a while ago.

The twist is that Patrick’s deck is intended for 1v1 Commander, not multiplayer. Even though the rules stay the same, games in this Commander variant couldn't be more different.

Patrick’s deck is a textbook example of a deck that isn't viable outside of 1v1. The goal is to play Edric and a few cheap threats and back them up with tempo plays that preserve your advantageous board state. After several turns of countering and bouncing everything relevant your opponent plays, you'll soon encounter a dead opponent.

In a multiplayer game, something this aggressive might kill one player if nobody decides to [card Wrath of God]wrath[/card] you. However, no matter how many cards you draw, at some point your slew of one- and two-drops will be outclassed by cards like Tooth and Nail and Insurrection. This is not a recipe for success.

Building a deck for this variant requires a different approach and should be an interesting departure from what we’re used to.

Let’s start with the deck Patrick submitted:

[deckbox did="a157" size="small" width="560"]

I see a lot of strengths in this list.

It has an admirably low curve, focused on 2's and 3's. There’s a strong package of counterspells and bounce to disrupt your opponent and protect your guys. There are also a couple swingy game-enders like Sunder and Sword of Feast and Famine that can put the nail in the coffin when you’re ahead.

There’s still a lot in this list that could stand to be tuned. Let’s start by looking at the creatures, sorted by function.

Edric's Eyes and Ears

There are three main kinds of creatures that contribute to this deck's game plan: mana dorks, utility creatures and beatsticks. Each category is important in its own right, but the most important task is to arrive at the appropriate combination.

Mana Dudes

  • Fyndhorn Elves
  • Dryad Arbor
  • Yavimaya Dryad
  • Coiling Oracle
  • Wood Elves
  • Llanowar Elves

The most important advice I can offer here is to cut the creatures that tutor up lands guys that tap directly for mana. Boreal Druid and Birds of Paradise are the only others you can run, but that lets you cut the comparably slow Coiling Oracle and Wood Elves. I’d cut them before Yavimaya Dryad because the extra point of power is surprisingly relevant.

If you want to maximize the chance of a turn-two Edric, you may also include more explosive options such as Chrome Mox, Elvish Spirit Guide or Mox Diamond.

The importance of this eventuality cannot be overstated, because games with a turn two Edric are vastly different than ones without. We’ll be on the lookout for opportunities to squeeze in some fast mana where we can.

Cuts:

Additions:

Utility Guys

  • Snapcaster Mage
  • Mystic Snake
  • Winged Coatl
  • Fauna Shaman
  • Glen Elendra Archmage
  • Waterfront Bouncer
  • Caustic Wasps
  • Trygon Predator
  • Waterfront Bouncer
  • Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
  • Loaming Shaman
  • Spiketail Drakeling
  • Scryb Ranger
  • Venser, Shaper Savant
  • Sower of Temptation
  • Thada Adel, Acquisitor
  • Eternal Witness

This section has the most play to it, and can be customized to answer your particular metagame. For example, I’m not overly excited by the prospects of Loaming Shaman, but it may be useful against the decks you expect to face.

I’m also unenthusiastic about Winged Coatl. There are much better options available, like Dungeon Geists or Man-o'-War, that accomplish the same task while ratcheting up the pressure.

I’m unsure of the purpose of Scryb Ranger, as I don’t see many creatures that benefit from the untap effect other than the mana guys. As you’re unlikely to miss land drops after connecting with Edric once or twice, I don’t think that interaction merits [card Scryb Ranger]Scryb Ranger’s[/card] inclusion.

With those exceptions, we have a solid base of utility guys. The only other choices I might question are Caustic Wasps and Trygon Predator, but both are significantly better in 1v1 due to the prevalence of artifact mana. Suffice it to say that repeatable [card Stone Rain]Stone Rains[/card] play quite well into Edric’s game plan.

My proposed changes are thus:

Cuts:

Additions:

The Beatdown

  • Jhessian Infiltrator
  • Vendilion Clique
  • Thalakos Seer
  • Looter Il-Kor
  • Silhana Ledgewalker
  • Cloud of Faeries
  • Scavenging Ooze

Finally we arrive at the beatdown squad. Due to my relative inexperience with 1v1, I find it a little tricky to evaluate these particular inclusions.

Under the French 1v1 rules, where life totals start at thirty, I imagine these would be passable. As Patrick’s deck is designed to deal forty points of damage, they seem awfully anemic and easy to answer. Then again, this impression may be a result of my lack of familiarity with the variant.

My gut says to cut the fragile creatures for harder-to-answer threats, augmented by Equipment and Auras like Moldervine Cloak or Runechanter's Pike that can render many a monster truly scary.

Cuts:

Additions:

Tools of the Trade

Next we’ll take a look at the permanents that back up the creature suite. I’ve divided them by card type rather than function because the sheer diversity of functions makes them hard to categorize neatly.

Artifacts

  • Sensei's Divining Top
  • Crucible of Worlds
  • Aether Vial
  • Sword of Fire and Ice
  • Crystal Shard
  • Sol Ring
  • Mana Crypt
  • Sword of Feast and Famine

The main card that underwhelms me here is Crucible of Worlds, but again that could be my unfamiliarity with building 1v1 decks. It doesn’t seem strong in a tempo-oriented deck unless you assemble Crucible plus Strip Mine or Wasteland. Since this deck doesn’t excel in the area of library manipulation it will be challenging to consistently find both halves of the combo.

Sensei's Divining Top is a fine card, but in green decks I prefer Sylvan Library. This is especially true in decks that can afford to pay loads of life and put extra cards to good use.

Cuts:

Additions:

Enchantments

  • Nature's Will
  • Exploration
  • Equilibrium
  • Survival of the Fittest

Each of these cards helps you break parity in the mid game and pull further ahead on tempo.

Survival of the Fittest is the only card that sticks out to me. Survival is awesome when you’re already ahead and can tutor up Mystic Snake or Venser, Shaper Savant to bury your opponent, but it seems pretty miserable when you’re behind. In contrast to Fauna Shaman, which always beats in for two, Survival can be dead when it matters most.

In general I’d rather have one-shot tutors and other library manipulation spells that require less mana investment. The caveat is that I’ve never played a tempo deck with Survival of the Fittest or Fauna Shaman. This alteration is definitely the change I’m most unsure of so let me know your opinions in the comments.

Cuts:

Additions:

Planeswalkers

  • Garruk Wildspeaker
  • Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Not much to say about these guys. Two of the strongest planeswalkers available in green-blue, they generate heaps of mana, board presence and card advantage. Exactly what the doctor ordered.

No Changes

The Spymaster’s Tricks

This is the heart of the deck; spells that keep your opponent on the backfoot once you’ve developed your board.

We should place special emphasis on bounce spells in a format where everyone intends to abuse their always-available commander. If you can turn such cheeky strategies into a giant tempo sink, running away with the game becomes a mere afterthought.

Countermagic

  • Arcane Denial
  • Force of Will
  • Voidslime
  • Remand
  • Hinder
  • Counterspell
  • Forbid
  • Mana Leak
  • Memory Lapse
  • Mana Drain
  • Mindbreak Trap
  • Spell Crumple

As the best counterspells the game has to offer, most of these are difficult to argue with. There are a few mediocre ones that can be trimmed though.

I’ll start by axing Arcane Denial, which is strict card disadvantage and lacks its political applications outside of multiplayer. I also don’t like Mindbreak Trap, except against [card Brain Freeze] blue-based storm[/card] decks, because of its cost.

We can replace these with more efficiently costed counterspells that generate tempo. The specific cards to include depend heavily on what you expect to face. Candidates I would consider include Cryptic Command, Spell Pierce, Turn Aside and Daze.

Cuts:

Additions:

Bounce Spells

  • Snap
  • Into the Roil
  • Sunder

The one glaring omission here that I desperately want to remedy is that of Vapor Snag. Snag has repeatedly proven itself in both Standard and Modern as a powerful card that disrupts creature-based combos and pushes through damage for little investment.

I do not, however, intend to put any of the above cards on the chopping block. Rest assured we’ll find the space to squeeze in Snag somewhere else.

No Changes

For Consistency’s Sake

  • Brainstorm
  • Worldly Tutor
  • Sylvan Tutor
  • Green Sun's Zenith
  • Noxious Revival

I’ve already stated my preference for one-shot tutor and filter effects over Survival of the Fittest and here we see some of the premier options in this category.

Above I added Ponder and I would also like to fit in Preordain and Serum Visions. Unfortunately we don’t want to cut any of the cards in this section.

With Edric as your Commander, you shouldn’t care much about the inherent card disadvantage from Worldly Tutor and Sylvan Tutor. The only card I would consider cutting is Green Sun's Zenith, but I’m loathe to remove any of the the one-mana accelerants.

What I’m tempted to do, since we’re upping the number of accelerants while trimming mana-intensive cards, is to cut one or two lands to make room for the extra cantrips. This may ultimately prove dangerous as the cantrips are meant to fix later draws, but if there ever was a deck that wanted to skimp on lands, this is it.

No Changes

The Lay of the Land

  • Mutavault
  • Mishra's Factory
  • Tolaria West
  • Mouth of Ronom
  • Breeding Pool
  • Flooded Strand
  • Polluted Delta
  • Windswept Heath
  • Wooded Foothills
  • Yavimaya Coast
  • Gaea's Cradle
  • Wasteland
  • Winding Canyons
  • Strip Mine
  • Tropical Island
  • Flooded Grove
  • Misty Rainforest
  • Scalding Tarn
  • Verdant Catacombs
  • Command Tower
  • Hinterland Harbor
  • 6 Snow-Covered Forest
  • 9 Snow-Covered Island

Two cards here fail to carry their weight and can be easily cut: Winding Canyons and Tolaria West.

In a deck that aims to use all its mana every turn, Winding Canyons provides a clunky and expensive effect. Mana sinks in Edric should either generate cards or increase pressure. I prefer Riptide Laboratory in this slot because of its interaction with Venser, Shaper Savant and Snapcaster Mage.

Tolaria West, on the other hand, simply doesn’t have exciting targets to fetch up. It’s utility is marginal and it can go.

Last, I want to change the balance of basics to reflect the deck’s early reliance on green mana. By the time you need to cast double-blue spells, Edric should have found you the blue sources you need.

With extra space freed up we can add the aforementioned cantrips and Vapor Snag.

Cuts:

Additions:

Behold, our final decklist:

[deckbox did="a158" size="small" width="560"]

You’ll notice that even small changes to this deck can have a huge impact on the outcome of games, due to the absurd number of cards you’ll see over a short period of time. You can be reasonably confident that you’ll find the singletons you need, especially creatures.

A handful of cards barely missed the cut. Any creature that’s seen play in G/x aggro decks in Legacy is eligible for a slot. Things like Tarmogoyf, Nimble Mongoose and Delver of Secrets could be insane, but I’m not sure how much worse they get when you double someone’s life total. The last card I want to try is Azure Mage as a way to pull ahead in blue mirrors, which seem fairly common in 1v1 Commander.

Regardless, this seems like a great place to start, with some flex slots that you can adjust to your metagame. It isn’t even that far off from something I might play in multiplayer, since you can get ahead on board and then counter most things that favorably interact with you.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Next week’s topic remains undetermined, as I have yet to finish sifting through my brimming inbox. If you’ve got any suggestions, requests or comments about the Edric deck, be sure send me an email or post in the comments below.

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com
@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: The Cavernous Future

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I had intended on hitting on some of the Rares previewed this week, but I’ve decided there’s more pressing information to share with you all. When I was first starting out at Quiet Speculation, my first Spoiler season was almost exactly one year ago, when we got Mental Misstep. Immediately internet buzz was polarized, but I got down to brass tacks and isolated Legacy cards that stood to gain or lose as a result. Many of you, who picked up Candelabras from an even earlier tip from QS, were able to get out before prices plummeted by about 50% (over $100). After more consideration from last weeks first glance at Cavern of Souls, I want to look at Legacy again and see what impact this will have on that format and what we can do to make some gains.

Cavern of Souls does two things (mana fixing and countermagic protection) and it does them both well. Not only that, but the opportunity cost of running them is fairly minimal. So we can expect that this card will certainly shake up almost every format that exists. Even naming Golem and protecting a Lodestone Golem from a Force of Will in Vintage is extremely relevant, without considering the color fixing at all. Zac Hill, Former Pro-Tour T8'er and R&D Devloper, wrote an article about the card last week, in which he said about Cavern of Souls, "We expect it to define almost every format in which it can be played." Let's redefine our valuations then.

What cards stand to lose here?

Cards that lose are narrow countermagic, especially ones that tend to counter creatures. The card I expect to plummet here is Spell Snare. While many of Spell Snare’s targets are instants and sorceries, a large majority are creatures in both Legacy and Modern. While I don’t expect Spell Snareto disappear, its role is just going to change. It’s no longer going to be a hard stop-gap against cards like Tarmogoyfand Dark Confidant, but will continue to prey on counterspells itself. It will protect your Planeswalkers and Sorceries from Counterspell and Remand.

Spell Snare is currently an $8 card, but only a year ago, before Modern’s rise, it sat at $2 for a very long time, despite its appearance in Legacy. This card is going to fall like a stone. I’m selling out of my personal set, and I’ll buy them back later. Remember, selling now at $8, and buying back at $2 is a /real/ profit of $6. You still have your Spell Snares, and $6 in your pocket.

Another card that stands to lose playability is Daze. Daze is most frequently used to combat other counterspells once you’ve tapped out for your threat. If your threat is uncoutnerable, thanks to Cavern, the need for Daze diminishes. While I don’t expect the price on Daze to change much, I also expect it to start seeing a lot less play.

What cards stand to gain here?

Decks that can ignore their opponents creatures stand to gain a lot. If the quantity of countermagic people play really does decrease, Combination Decks stand to gain the most, and not even just the Force of Will Combo decks (but yes, them too). Spanish Inquizition, Ad Nauseum- Tendrils, Show and Tell (all varieties) and High Tide will run rampant if Creature Decks become overly common. This means all the appropriate combo pieces stand to gain.

That includes, but is not limited to, Lion's Eye Diamond and Chrome Mox. Those two specifically are strong buy’s in my opinion. Chrome Mox is currently only $10, but has seen heights of $15 historically, and I’m looking to pick up a quick $5/card on this one. Lion’s Eye Diamond on the other hand is at its historical high, after bouncing between $30-40 over the past year. I don’t expect it to shoot up much higher, but it does belong in both versions of Tendrils, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it hit $50. I’m not suggesting a big move on the Diamond, but Chrome Mox is worth sinking some money into.

Other cards that stand to gain take advantage of reliance on the Cavern. Wasteland, which already slots into every Control and Tempo deck (or a deck that has land tutors) will be at a premium. In aggro-control mirrors, like Merfolk, nuking your opponents Cavern so you can counter their Lord of Atlantis is no joke. Keep in mind, that most decks like this, also have Aether Vial to sneak guys in through countermagic anyway. Wasteland has hit peaks of $50, but currently sits at $35. This will likely stabilize closer to $40, and that may or may not have anything to do with the Cavern.

Last group of cards I want to talk about is strategies that actually move up the list in playability as a result of this land. The two that come to mind are Goblins and Slivers. Yeah, I said Slivers. Slivers has always been a poor strategy, but there are always people who play it, without them having to worry about their dudes being countered, you may start to see more of this Tier 2 deck floating around.

Goblins on the other hand, has already been making a resurgance, and this is just the icing on the cake. Making Goblin Lackey uncounterable on Turn 1 is no joke. Lackey, which has bounced between $7-10 is currently at the lowest end of that range and is prime pickings for a spike. The same can be said for Siege-Gang Commander which can be found around $1, and has proven to have the capability to bounce back to $2 multiple times in the past.

So there’s some shifting to be done of our evaluations. These are the most clear winners/losers as a result of this card, but there has to be more. You can always Next Level this, and it’s important to do so to stay ahead of the game. Just don’t get so far ahead that it takes the market too long to catch up to you.

For example, if the Legacy metagame shifts as I’ve suggested, we may see a traditional U/B control deck reappear that uses things like Duress and Thoughtseize to control their opponents options in combination with a counter suite and Wastelands to pick away Caverns. A deck like this probably also has Crucible of Worlds in the Sideboard at a minimum.

I don’t want to jump on cards like this until we see the first stage actually occur. We just want to know what moves to make when it happens so we can maximize our gains without having to hold on to these cards for ages.

What are other Next Level moves are there that will result after the initial shifts? Are there any other cards that immediately gain or lose value, or did I miss the mark on any of the ones I’ve listed here? Cavern of Souls is certainly going to shake up Legacy, but how much, and how are you preparing yourself to be profitable?

Insider: A Call for a Moral Compass

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In the past, I’ve written at length about the rapid rise in MTG finance speculators and the resulting impact on the game. An interesting dynamic is created – one which is relatively unique as far as hobbies go.

This week, while nearly every other finance writer dives into their predictions for Avacyn Restored’s upcoming impact on the MTG financial market, I look to deviate and discuss a different topic. One related to the relationship between finance speculators and the broader MTG community.

Lucid Transactions

Most members of the MTG community are aware of our presence. Casual and competitive players alike can either avoid this fact or embrace it. Either way, there is a growing population of players who are seeking to profit from this beloved card game.

As a value-trader / profit-seeker / greedy person, however you want to spin it, my trading experiences have varied heavily from one individual to the next. Some exchanges have been augmented by the acknowledgment that I have decent availability of the hottest cards and I may trade them at a small premium. Other exchanges have become quite awkward because of this same recognition.

I have two recent anecdotes to share along these lines. I will share my immediate reactions, my actual responses and the end result. Then I will brainstorm other potential ways of handling these situations and I’ll even elicit comments from all of my readers, who have surely had similar experiences in the past.

Anecdote 1: The Pitfall of Twitter Uncovered?

By now, most of you know I am an avid user of Twitter. I have ambitions to increase my follower base and have a truly measurable influence on the MTG community.

I try to drive awareness of my “Twitter-dom” in various ways – some subtle and some (see above) not so subtle.

One subtle way is the inclusion of my Twitter handle in my signature on my MOTL account. Whenever I send someone a private message, my Twitter handle is included on the bottom of the page. I am not ashamed of this tactic and honestly I doubt it gets noticed.

One MOTL member ended up doing much more than noticing. While in the midst of some negotiations on a purchase I was aiming to make, this member looked at my Twitter feed and noticed I am a value-seeker. Upon this recognition, he wrote to me his apprehension with proceeding with the trade because he realized my motivations for buying may have been strictly financial.

This was a first for me. I could certainly understand the seller’s concern – as a person who seeks to profit from this hobby, my interest in his cards imply that perhaps his prices are a bit too low. It completely alters my perspective on this interaction. If I were in his shoes, I would certainly consider negotiating higher prices on my cards knowing a potential “shark” was interested.

Concerned I may have offended the seller, I promptly responded in a reassuring way. I explained that my intent was not to immediately sell his cards for profit – in fact, I needed the Vendilion Clique in the deal in order to complete my playset. (By the way, doesn’t Vendilion Clique seem like a great hoser for the new “miracle” ability? Nice Temporal Mastery).


(chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

This seemed to settle the seller to some degree and the deal was agreed upon. Now when I receive the cards I will be faced with a tough situation. My plan is to follow through on my promise and seek to trade the cards at a local tournament rather than sell for profit on MOTL. But is this the right decision? Taking a step back, could I have approached this confrontation in a way which would have netted me the cards while not pigeonholing myself into a tough spot?

Recall I don’t want to upset other members of the community here. I don’t think we’re bad people for wanting to buy cards from others and attempt to sell them for more. Larger stores sustain their existence with this model, and I think the fact that I have the means to make moderate purchases on the fly is a service to be provided to sellers in desperate need to offload cards. I can certainly understand how this stigma has formed – if I sell cards to a shark, I must be getting ripped off.

Anecdote 2: Some People Just Don’t Want to Negotiate

I frequently sell cards on MOTL – it’s an efficient way of moving cards without the fees of eBay and the lowball prices of retailer buy lists. I strive to be reasonable with prices, at times settling with a 0 profit margin just to make another contact in the community.

I once made a fairly substantial sale (~$100) to another MOTL member. I had priced the card fairly, no negotiations were necessary. Besides, the buyer and I had chatted through Twitter in the past so we were on agreeable terms

Over a year later, I was impulsively interested in purchasing a Grim Tutor. After a couple failed attempts at acquiring one, I came across a sale list with a competitive price. Even though the price was fair, I saw little harm in attempting to negotiate a few bucks in savings.


(chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Was this an appropriate step to take? Although the price was fair and I wanted the card, my profit-seeking instincts kicked in and drove me to attempt a better price. It is natural for me to seek the best deal on a card. In my opinion, settling for the asking price is a true shame unless you’re making a speculative purchase where you hope for the price to rise.

Wrong or not, my negotiation attempt was not received well. It turns out the seller was that same MOTL member who had previously made a substantial purchase from my list without seeking to negotiate. Perhaps rightfully so, the seller was offended at my attempt to negotiate on what was already a competitively priced card.

I hadn’t meant to anger my once-Twitter-compatriot, I quickly apologized and agreed to his sale price. Almost out of shame for my actions, I was compelled to make this purchase.

picture courtesy of http://www.zazzle.com/cheapskate_tshirt-235318434923253423

My apology was accepted and the relationship was mended. I purchased the card and we parted ways at worst neutrally. Now I am left to wonder if I had behaved inappropriately and if my decision to purchase the card was strictly out of emotion. Again, I have no desire to anger members of the MTG community and here is another example of me attempting to keep peace.

Similarly to before I now possess this card which I no longer need and feel funny selling for profit. Doesn’t it feel “dirty” sometimes to buy cards from someone on MOTL and immediately place them back on the site at a higher price? This is a practice I try to avoid yet acknowledge is necessary at times to make quick profit.

Does this act cross the moral boundary?

Picking Up the Pieces

These experiences have reshaped my perceptions. Value-traders are not universally lauded for their transparency and broad card availability. Many people frown upon our habits. While this comes as no surprise, these recent experiences cause me to question my own behaviors.

Perhaps I am not carrying myself professionally in these circumstances? Perhaps I am seeking out financial gains too overtly and aggressively? Or perhaps I simply care too much about what others think about me?

Either way, I am glad to be made aware of these perceptions. Now I am left to decide how to proceed. But before I do, I want to compare my moral compass with others in the community. What do other people think about how I handled these situations?

I eagerly await your suggestions.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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