menu

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #5

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Editor's note: Edward talks about a lot of promo cards in this article, for which we have limited price data. Graphs of the corresponding non-promos appear in their place.

As usual, today I'll be making recommendations for speculation targets based on two categories:

  1. Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  2. Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Pro Tour 25th Anniversary has made its mark in history, and as with any Pro Tour, breakout cards have jumped in price. Some of these price jumps were cards I mentioned in past articles, but some of them I missed. In light of this, I’ll be adding a new section to the article series, "Missed Targets," to try to cover the key cards I might have neglected to mention in past articles.

Missed Targets

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nexus of Fate

I totally missed the boat on this one. As you might have noticed by now, I’m pretty big on picking up playable promos and have been for years. And as I’ve mentioned a couple times already, Chas Andres has marked them as the next buyout specs.

I even read Rob’s article before the spike and just kept on sleeping. Ugh. It really stings, and the reason I know is because this has happened to me several times before. I had a chance to buy three judge promo Noble Hierarchs for $100 when they were about $35 each. I had the judge promo Wheel of Fortune on my wishlist on Star City Games when it was under $50. And I slept through the spikes of the Elvish Visionary, Eternal Witness, and Kitchen Finks FNM promos.

This time was even more special because I thought you could get Nexus of Fate in packs, which is what will make it a great story to tell for years to come.

There are a few other cards I missed recently, and they all stem from one deck: Bridgevine. I mentioned Hangarback Walker in the previous article, but I forgot to mention Bridge from Below, Leyline of the Void, and Vengevine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bridge from Below

I forgot to mention these because I already have my playsets of Leylines and Vengevines. Moving forward, I’ll do a better job at pointing out other key cards from the decks that are causing waves.

Hold ‘Em

Vengevine - WMCQ Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vengevine

With that said, I do think promo Vengevines are a hold if you have them. Why? The keyword is "promo." Plus, they are usually played as a four-of in more than just Bridgevine in Modern. It also shows up in Hollowvine and Dredgevine. And as time goes on, people will find more ways to break Vengevine—along with, in many cases, the next card too.

Stitcher’s Supplier - M19 (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stitcher's Supplier

I think the time has passed on foil ones, but you can still get non-foils copies for about $.50 on TCGplayer. The card is starting to pop up everywhere: Legacy’s Walking Dead, Modern’s Bridgevine, and Standard’s God-Pharaoh's Gift.

Legacy: Walking Dead by RENERANDRUP

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Carrion Feeder
2 Dark Confidant
4 Gravecrawler
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Stitcher's Supplier

Non-Creature Spells

4 Cabal Therapy
4 Faithless Looting
1 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
4 Entomb
1 Phyrexian Altar
2 Bridge from Below
2 Goblin Bombardment

Lands

3 Badlands
2 Bayou
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Dakmor Salvage
2 Marsh Flats
2 Phyrexian Tower
3 Polluted Delta
3 Swamp
1 Undiscovered Paradise

Sideboard

1 Abrupt Decay
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Chains of Mephistopheles
1 Darkblast
1 Golgari Charm
2 Magus of the Moon
1 Nature's Claim
1 Null Rod
1 Pithing Needle
1 Pyroblast
3 Surgical Extraction
1 Urborg Justice

Standard: GPG by Vincent Reiter

Creatures

1 Hostage Taker
4 Jadelight Ranger
4 Llanowar Elves
1 Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar
1 Noxious Gearhulk
1 Pelakka Wurm
2 Ravenous Chupacabra
1 Reclamation Sage
2 Seekers' Squire
2 Servant of the Conduit
4 Stitcher's Supplier
2 The Scarab God
1 Torgaar, Famine Incarnate
3 Walking Ballista

Non-Creature Spells

4 Gate to the Afterlife
2 God-Pharaoh's Gift
2 Liliana, Death's Majesty

Lands

4 Aether Hub
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Botanical Sanctum
1 Drowned Catacomb
3 Forest
6 Swamp
1 Woodland Cemetery

Sideboard

2 Arborback Stomper
1 Deadeye Tracker
1 Deathgorge Scavenger
1 Gonti, Lord of Luxury
1 Nissa, Vital Force
2 Reclamation Sage
2 Vine Mare
1 Vivien Reid
3 Vraska's Contempt
1 Vraska, Relic Seeker

I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up as an FNM promo later. But if you want to play any of those decks, I’d pick up at least twelve copies now. I already bought a playset from a local game store for $.50 each.

Stoneforge Mystic - Grand Prix Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

I try to stay away from cards that don’t see play in multiples in different decks and across formats. But this one is a little more unique. For starters, as I mentioned in my first article, Death and Taxes has gotten a lot stronger. And now we have Allen Wu’s winning Pro Tour 25th Anniversary deck as data to further solidify this stance.

Legacy: Death and Taxes by Allen Wu

Creatures

4 Flickerwisp
1 Mirran Crusader
4 Mother of Runes
1 Palace Jailer
4 Phyrexian Revoker
2 Recruiter of the Guard
1 Sanctum Prelate
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Non-Creature Spells

4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Aether Vial
1 Batterskull
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Umezawa's Jitte

Lands

1 Horizon Canopy
3 Karakas
1 Mishra's Factory
5 Plains
4 Rishadan Port
6 Snow-Covered Plains
4 Wasteland

Sideboard

1 Containment Priest
2 Council's Judgment
1 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Faerie Macabre
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Leonin Relic-Warder
2 Path to Exile
1 Pithing Needle
3 Rest in Peace
1 Walking Ballista

I should’ve mentioned Stoneforge alongside Thalia, Guardian of Thraben in that article but I forgot to. Again, probably because I already have a regular Worldwake set...yet another reminder to myself to make sure I do a better job of pointing out these cards for you.

If you need these, I would pick up the Grand Prix promos now even though they’ve already spiked a little bit. The "promo" keyword comes into play again here. And if it gets unbanned in Modern, these are going to skyrocket.

Before we get into the Fold ‘Em section this time, I’d like to introduce yet another new section: Recent Buys.

Recent Buys

Greater Gargadon - Modern Masters (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greater Gargadon

This is another suggestion from a friend that I’m trying out. In past articles, I highlighted some cards that I picked up, where I bought them from, and how much I bought them for. Not only am I trying to stay ahead of the curve and help people with MTG finance by providing market insight, but I want to build confidence in you by putting money where my mouth is.

I bought a playset of Gargadons for $5.20 each from TCGplayer. And there aren’t too many left. You can also find just a few left on Card Kingdom.

Serrated Arrows - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serrated Arrows

This is a pretty popular card in Pauper if you’re into that scene. Take a look at the following list.

I don’t expect this to really shoot up in price anytime soon. But once again...it’s a promo, so it probably won’t decrease in value from where it is now. And it could easily see a reprint in Standard down the road. I bought four from TCG Player at $2.25 each.

Flame Javelin - Magic Player Rewards

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flame Javelin

Here’s another cheap promo. It doesn’t see play in eternal formats but could easily be reprinted in Standard. And Wizards has vowed to never print these again because textless cards create a poor game play experience at local game stores, making these decently scarce.

David Schumann published a nice piece here which tipped me towards Flame Javelin. I think this is one of the more useful cards of the cheaper Magic Player Rewards promos. The other one that I think is a bit undervalued is Volcanic Fallout. I already have a playset; but if you don’t, you might want to pick one up since it’s occasionally played in Legacy’s Burn and Dragon Stompy.

Legacy: Burn by Nikola Ayala

Creatures

4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Non-Creature Spells

4 Chain Lightning
4 Fireblast
4 Flame Rift
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Price of Progress
4 Rift Bolt
2 Searing Blood

Lands

18 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Pyrostatic Pillar
4 Smash to Smithereens
3 Sulfuric Vortex
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Volcanic Fallout

Legacy: Dragon Stompy by Luca La Loggia

Creatures

4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Magus of the Moon
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Non-Creature Spells

3 Fiery Confluence
4 Blood Moon
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
4 Chrome Mox
4 Ensnaring Bridge
2 Karn, Scion of Urza
2 Trinisphere

Lands

4 Ancient Tomb
4 City of Traitors
11 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Abrade
2 Kozilek's Return
3 Scab-Clan Berserker
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Sulfur Elemental
3 Tormod's Crypt
1 Volcanic Fallout

Fold ‘Em

Vengevine - Rise of the Eldrazi (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vengevine

If you don’t need or want these, I would sell into the hype. These will mostly likely see a reprint in a Masters set. A friend at a PPTQ last weekend asked me what I thought about the spike. I said to sell non-foil and foil Worldwake versions, and to hold WMCQ promos if you have them. And this is what I’m reiterating here.

The reason I only include Vengevine from Bridgevine in the Fold ‘Em section is because it’s a payoff card that's not as universal as Bridge from Below, or a multi-deck, multi-format sideboard all-star like Leyline of the Void.

Reader Feedback

Verix Bladewing - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil) [Hold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Verix Bladewing

David Scott asked me about this in my fourth article. And funny enough, Ty Thomason from my third article messaged me and asked what I should do about foils. I told him to hold because they’re so cheap right now and the buylist price is not worth it.

This could easily see play in a Dragons deck after rotation this fall. This is where keeping those foil Sarkhan, Firebloods I highlighted before would pay off. And if they don’t see play in Standard, no biggie. Also, don’t forget that even though red is supposed to be a weaker color in Commander, casual players still love dragons.

Non-foils are about $2 and foils are about $5 on TCGplayer.

Updates

Engineered Explosives - Masterpiece Series: Kaladesh Inventions [Hold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

The Invention version is starting to rise ever so slightly as predicted, and will continue to trend towards the sky with no end in sight.

Thunderbreak Regent - Game Day Promos [Hold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

There are some listed on Card Kingdom for $7.

Engineered Explosives - Fifth Dawn & Modern Masters [Fold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

The price is starting to come down just a little bit from the spike after I prematurely said to fold. With that said, I still think you should be folding these if you don’t need them for play.

Nimble Obstructionist - Hour of Devastation (Non-Foil & Foil) [Fold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nimble Obstructionist

It looks like this is still slightly trending upwards, but I would still fold these. You can pick them back up again later after rotation in the fall.

Thunderbreak Regent - Game Day Promos [Fold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

You can sell them for $4.50 cash or $5.85 credit on Card Kingdom.

Summary

Missed Targets

  • Nexus of Fate - Buy-A-Box Promos
  • Bridge from Below - Future Sight
  • Leyline of the Void - M11
  • Vengevine - WMCQ Promos

Hold ‘Em

  • Vengevine - WMCQ Promos
  • Stitcher's Supplier - M19
  • Stoneforge Mystic - Grand Prix Promos

Recent Buys

  • Greater Gargadon - Modern Masters (Foil)
  • Serrated Arrows - FNM Promos
  • Flame Javelin - Magic Player Rewards

Fold ‘Em

  • Vengevine - Worldwake (Non-Foil & Foil)

Reader Feedback

  • Verix Bladewing - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil) [Hold]

Updates

  • Engineered Explosives - Masterpiece Series: Kaladesh Inventions [Hold]
  • Thunderbreak Regent - Game Day Promos [Hold]
  • Engineered Explosives - Fifth Dawn & Modern Masters[Fold]
  • Nimble Obstructionist - Hour of Devastation (Non-Foil & Foil) [Fold]
  • Thunderbreak Regent - Game Day Promos [Fold]

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make my articles more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Unlocked: Market Movements This Week

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The impending release of Commander 2018 has continued to be one of the major drivers in the market, causing spikes in numerous cards. Last weekend’s Pro Tour 25th Anniversary was also a major factor in price changes this week, as it featured three constructed formats and saw new decks break out in each.

Commander 2018

There was an error retrieving a chart for Insidious Dreams

The Esper “Subjective Reality” deck with a top-of-library-matters theme has been slow to impact the market relative to the other Commander 2018 decks. Now it has seen a major spike with Insidious Dreams, which makes sense as a very powerful card for stacking the top of the deck. It was previously just $3, but is now selling in the mid-teens.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Realms Uncharted

The Jund “Nature’s Vengeance” Lands deck looks to be popular based on its impact on the price of many cards. One card that spiked this week was Realms Uncharted, the Gifts Ungiven for lands that’s perfect for the deck, which doubled from around $2 to over $4.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Rage

Omnath, Locus of Rage will be a powerful finisher for the lands deck, and will also get more attention as a commander of its own deck, so it has spiked from under $2 to $5.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Constant Mists

A savvy pickup for the lands deck is Constant Mists, which is great in a deck that can fuel lands with cards like Life from the Loam and the commander of the deck, Lord Windgrace. It has doubled from $4 to $8, and still seems like a bargain for being such an old and powerful card, especially one that is Legacy-playable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Bonds

An interesting spike in reaction to the lands deck is Polluted Bonds, which is a strong hoser against the strategy. It will be great in the deck for fighting back against the mirror, or in the Esper enchantment deck against the lands deck, or simply in any black deck that wants to fight against lands players. It had already been growing, up from $7 to $11 in the past month, but spiked to $13 in the past day and is likely to head higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Words of Wind

The enchantment deck continues to be popular and to spike the price of numerous cards. Last week foil copies of Words of Wind spiked, and this week normal copies followed suit, from $3 to nearly $10. This spike was completely predictable based on the foil spike last week—a wake-up call that paying close attention to foil Commander spikes could lead to fantastic specs on the non-foil counterparts if they lag behind.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Argothian Enchantress

A classic enchantment card is Argothian Enchantress, and it will be a perfect fit in the Bant enchantment deck. Urza’s Saga and Eternal Masters copies of the card have spiked from around $7 to $16.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sakashima's Student

The Commander 2018 decks contain the first legendary gold Ninja, Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow, which means the first gold Ninja commander, which makes the first truly complete Ninja Commander deck possible. This has brought great interest to the tribe and spiked many cards. This week Sakashima's Student saw major gains, up from around $7 to $20.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crenellated Wall

There also continues to be demand from the Arcades, the Strategist Commander deck. Crenellated Wall continued to grow this week, up from $1 to $5, although played copies are available for a few dollars.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Walker of Secret Ways

There were also a few Commander-related foil spikes this week. Walker of Secret Ways spiked based on the Ninja deck, up to $25 from $5. The nonfoil copies have also crept up behind it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Retether

Foil copies of Retether are up to $18 from around $5 last week, as it’s a nice tool for the enchantment deck. The nonfoil version is creeping up towards $4 from $3. It might be set for more gains and a potential spike based on the foil, so this could be a good spec right now.

The Pro Tour

The Pro Tour made a big impact on the market, especially in Modern because of the breakout Vengevine deck. This deck is similar to Hollow One in how it utilizes the graveyard and some of the same cards. As when the Hollow One deck broke out, its staples have all spiked.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vengevine

Vengevine is the centerpiece of the deck, and thus spiked from around $23 to around $60. I expect the card has been underpriced for years, and it was only a matter of time before it spiked. I don’t see it falling much from its current price, which is around $45-50 for played copies.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bridge from Below

Another critical piece of the deck is Bridge from Below, which has additional demand as a crossover staple in Dredge. Its previous price of around $8 was bargain compared to the current price over $20.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline of the Void

A staple of the sideboard, and even the maindeck of some lists, is Leyline of the Void. It doubled over the weekend, from around $30 to $60.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gravecrawler

Another staple that approximately doubled is Gravecrawler, up from $5 to $9.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greater Gargadon

A card from the deck I have my eye on is Greater Gargadon, which is new tech that broke out over the weekend. If it catches on as a staple and is played by everyone going forward, then its current price around $3.50 should increase.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nimble Obstructionist

Another Modern spike of note is Nimble Obstructionist, which is being played in the Blue-Red Wizards deck. It’s up to $5 from just over $1, a rather massive spike. It’s likely to fall back down a bit, but it looks like a great post-rotation pickup for long-term growth.

-Adam

Unlocked: Responding to the Vengevine Breakout

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome back, guys.

I was watching the Pro Tour coverage while writing this article. BR Vengevine is a deck that appeared on MTGO for quite a while already, and the deck did pretty well at the Pro Tour! That made the deck's core components spike in value.

In response to these changes, the best hate card in the format, Leyline of the Void, also increased in price as shown:

Leyline has reached its highest price since release, 21 tickets. This card was already a strong sideboard card before BR Vengevine made its appearance in Modern. With the rise of this new deck, players online quickly started buying their own playsets to survive the Vengevine outbreak.

For those who missed the chance to buy into any of these three cards shown above, I have a good news for you—there are more ways to beat the explosive graveyard-based deck.

The simplest way is to use the usual hate cards for graveyard decks:

Rest in Peace is the must-have graveyard hate in white decks nowadays. This enchantment does the same things as Leyline of the Void, except for the fact that it can't come down on turn zero. Getting into play two turns later is actually fine against BR Vengevine because the deck requires some time to set up, outside of a crazy opening like double Vengevine, double zero-mana card, plus Faithless Looting. I believe RIP is a good speculation target at its current price.

Extirpate is the cousin of another expensive card, Surgical Extraction. The major difference is that Surgical is basically free—but from a finance point of view, Extirpate is a really good pick right now.

This card not only helps to exile the entire playset of Vengevine or Bridge from Below from an opponent's graveyard, it's also a very good card against Cryptic Command decks with its unique split second mechanic. This is another card I feel is underpriced for its utility in Modern.

Bogles

Bogles is an underdog right now, and I believe it's well positioned against Vengevine decks. The bad matchup for this deck is actually Liliana of the Veil decks like Jund or Abzan. However, these decks have already been pushed out of the top 10 Modern decks even with the unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf. The rest of the metagame is control decks, Tron, and creature decks.

With a big portion of the Modern metagame full of creature decks, the Slippery Bogle deck is actually a pretty good choice for any Modern tournament. With cards like Daybreak Coronet and Unflinching Courage, this deck can usually beat opposing creature deck unless they have some really good draws.

Let's look at some components of the green-white hexproof deck:

Daybreak Coronet is one of the core cards in Bogles. A hexproof creature with +3/+3, first strike, vigilance, and lifelink, plus whatever else it gets from other auras, is pretty hard to beat for any creature deck in the format. Coronet is currently at its low point, and definitely one of the cards that I would suggest buying this week.

Kor Spiritdancer only sees play in Bogles, but every time the decks gets popular its price will rise to a certain level. Currently at 1 ticket, I think now is a good time to buy some playsets for investment.

Horizon Canopy is one of the most expensive lands in the format, played as a four-of in Bogles. The reason this card is so expensive is because it's the only land in green or white that draws cards or mitigates mana flood.

Canopy is a little bit too expensive to buy for speculation, but if you have a lot of spare tickets, I think now is the time to purchase your playset. Besides Bogles, this card is played in many other decks in Modern and Legacy.

Abzan Counters Company is another key deck that plays Horizon Canopy in Modern. This deck is weak against decks with a lot of removal. Against decks like BR Vengevine, however, which doesn't have many ways to interact with opposing creatures, the combo is going to steal some games.

This deck is able to win as fast as turn three if Devoted Druid and Vizier of Remedies are not dealt with immediately. Moreover, Eidolon of Rhetoric in the sideboard is actually surprisingly good against Vengevine because the ability of the Green elemental will never be triggered as long as Eidolon is in play.

Eidolon of Rhetoric was a sideboard card against decks that are likely to cast more than one spell, like Storm, Burn, KCI combo, and other combo or aggro decks. With four toughness on this creature, and its strength against many decks that are in the format right now, I can foresee players starting to move it to the mainboard. Although this card is just an uncommon, I wouldn't be surprised if it became two tickets or more in the near future. I suggest buying playsets of Eidolon just in case.

Last but not least, this artifact is one of the factors that's pushing Bloodbraid Elf out of the format. Trinisphere is another card that could help to fight the new Vengevine decks. The reason behind this is pretty simple: the Vengevine player is no longer able to cast two spells once this card resolves—no more zero-mana tricks with Hangarback Walker and Walking Ballista.

It's hard to justify having a three-mana card as the strategy to beat a fast deck, but if you consider it in decks like Eldrazi Tron or its variants, you will know that these decks usually have ways to survive until turn three. Thus, I think Trinisphere is once again a good speculation pick right now.


Alright guys, that’s all for the week. Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you again next week.

Adrian, signing off.

State of the Meta – Week of July 30, 2018 (Part 2)

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to part two of this iteration of the State of the Meta column! As previously mentioned, I will be looking at recent changes to the Legacy scene and will include data from PT 25th Anniversary. Let's jump right in!

Legacy – Post Bannings Trends

The torches and pitchforks can be put to rest for now: as of July 2nd, Deathrite Shaman is finally gone. And it dragged Gitaxian Probe along for the ride. Both of these moves have allowed for a wider range of archetype to get back into the spotlight; at the same time, new twists on Delver decks have started to pop up as successful lists, including during the PT itself.

Winner – Reanimator

File this one in the "Thank You, Captain Obvious" category if you wish, but still. While Deathrite Shaman was around, most Reanimator players would have to be able to bring back two creatures in order to dodge any DRS activation – unless they could use Exhume which could be a double-edge sword in the late game. Game one is now slightly easier for Reanimator strategies (either fast BR ones or grindy UB ones), but they'll still be facing more sideboard hate in gams two and three.

There are two relevant cards in the Reanimator builds: the first one is clearly Lotus Petal, which is also pressured by Storm, Sneak & Show and all kinds of glass cannon decks (looking at you, Goblin Charbelcher). Over the past six months, the only non-foil printing of the card (Tempest) went up by 50 percent, from $6.6 to over $10. There is a FTV and a Masterpiece version of it, but still the entry point to the card is steadily rising.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Petal

The other card I would keep an eye on is Chancellor of the Annex, also played in the lesser known Manaless Dredge build. With only one printing and a very niche utilization in the format, but required as a four-of when played, the card has been maintaining a $5/$25 price tag (foil/non-foil) for a while now. Since PT 25 was such a success considering the viewership numbers and feedback from social media, if more players want to venture into Legacy, Reanimator is one of the cheapest and most fun entryways to the format. There are currently 58 vendors of non-foil Chancellor, but only 17 of those have four copies or more: I'll be looking to pick up copies to build up towards a few sets in case the card spikes.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chancellor of the Annex

Winner – Death & Taxes

One of the biggest selling point of the D&T strategy was the "Taxes" bit, where Wasteland, Rishadan Port and Thalia, Guardian of Thraben shine the brightest. But it is very difficult to tax anyone starting the game with "Fetch, Deathrite, Go"... In a world free of DRS however, the archetype is back in business, as evidenced bythe presence of two copies in the top four of PT25, including that of the winning team.

The card that I believe is the most susceptible to see an uptick might surprise you: I would really recommend grabbing copies of Aether Vial now while it is still in the $30 to $35 range. Death & Taxes "won" the PT, it had multiple copies in the high tables, most of the list is made of cheap and/or recently reprinted cards, and it's one of the few archetypes that does not need dual lands – and that's just the considerations for Legacy! Vial is also an essential four-of in Modern, both in the Humans and Spirits builds, two lists that keep gaining not only in notoriety but also in successful results both online and in paper. As a speculative target, it might be interesting to keep an eye on the Masterpiece printing of the card, which is in my very humble opinion one of the prettiest ones out of the Inventions set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Vial

Trending Up – Temur Delver

Speaking about mana denial strategies, as many have talked about since the B&R announcement, one card that is sure to come back to the forefront of Legacy is Stifle, and with it the best-equipped deck to run it, Temur Delver.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stifle

Now that Deathrite is no longer applying so much maindeck pressure on the opponent's graveyard, an aggro/tempo strategy that relies on an early Delver of Secrets and Nimble Mongoose can thrive again. Stifle was mentioned as a target in our Insiders Discord channel nearly instantly when the DRS ban came out, but other cards from this build deserve consideration: the recent reprint of True-Name Nemesis as a Battlebond mythic is making the deck more accessible, so a rebound in price should be expected. Out of the sideboard, I really like foil copies of Sulfur Elemental, which is poised to become a fixture if Death & Taxes remains at the top of the standings.

There was an error retrieving a chart for True-Name Nemesis

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sulfur Elemental

 Trending Up – Sneak & Show/Omni-Show

This is an archetype that benefits from both Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe leaving the format: the type of decks that preyed on Sneak & Show were the ones that could go Probe-into-Cabal Therapy-Flashback (Grixis Delver/Control) or Thoughtseize-into-Hymn to Tourach (Grixis Control/Czech Pile) and destroy the opponent's hand. With Probe and DRS's mana fixing gone, Sneak & Show can thrive again, and actually showed up in force at PT25, second in metagame share of the event at 9.7 percent behind only Grixis Control.

If the deck is really gaining steam, the first card I would be looking into is Show and Tell: its price really dropped since the Conspiracy: Take the Crown printing, the card bottomed at $14 ($20 for the original Urza's Saga copies) and is now trending back up on the other side of the "U" shape graph you Insiders always like to see. It also helps that Omniscience was just reprinted in Core 19, making the deck more accessible with the cheapest copies around $6.50 when the M13 ones were sitting north of $30. From the list posted above, I would point out Defense Grid, a card I already mentioned in part one of this article, when looking at the Modern metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Show and Tell

Additionally, Shota Yasooka was on camera in round one of PT25 with Omni-Show, and he decided to run a copy of Boseiju, Who Shelters All maindeck. I would watch the stock of foil copies of the land: with currently only nine NM foil copies across four vendors on TCGplayer, it is not going to take much to see a spike.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boseiju, Who Shelters All

Trending Down – Storm

As much as it pains me to write this, Storm is one of the archetypes (along with Infect) that suffers the most from the Gitaxian Probe ban. Losing a free cantrip that gives you information for Cabal Therapy to clear out the way will certainly slow the game plan down and steer the list towards more discard. Enter Thoughtseize, the most obvious replacement for Probe. I listed it as trending down, but it might end up being a wash, since Storm could be facing more of the old archetypes it used to feast on before the advent of the DRS lists

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

Loser – Leovold

How the mighty have fallen: once a $45+ card (briefly spiking to $60), Leovold, Emissary of Trest could be one of the biggest casualties from the Deathrite Shaman ban, since it was one of the main cards in the Czech Pile build. Still being used in Aluren and Sultai Midrange lists, these decks are nowhere near the popularity the four-color list once had: only one Aluren and two Sultai Midrange lists at PT 25, for a grand total of four copies of Leovold across the field.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leovold, Emissary of Trest

Legacy – Breakout Deck of PT 25

Josh Utter-Leyton piloted a UB Shadow build all the way to the Finals of PT 25: why run original dual lands when you can use shocklands as the most useful (and legal) proxies?

The list has been around for a little while now, but this particular build aims at maximizing Death's Shadow. Reanimate, Street Wraith and Snuff Out (instead of Dismember from previous lists) are all efficient ways to lower your life total while not losing too much on the tempo side. Landing an early Gurmag Angler or Death's Shadow, or reanimating a cycled Street Wraith also allows turning Stubborn Denial into a hard counter.

And just like Temur Delver with Sulfur Elemental, Utter-Leyton had packed a weapon of choice for the D&T matchup: Dread of Night. You may be prompted to point out this hate card was still not enough to avoid a game-three loss in the finals despite managing to put three copies on the battlefield, and yeah, that's true.

In terms of financial gains, foil copies of Snuff Out have essentially disappeared from the internet and the card is now running $25, so check your pauper specs and various shoeboxes. Despite the high buy-in, I believe Reanimate could be a play with the demand coming from Reanimator as well as Modern players who see a new path into Legacy with a deck that replaces $800 Underground Sea with much less scarce Watery Grave.

Finally, Dread of Night only has two printings (no foil!), Tempest and 6th Edition, and stock is relatively low for NM copies: 20 Tempest vendors, 12 for 6th Edition. I do not expect the price to stay around $1 for long, so if you want to own this card, grab your copies now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snuff Out

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reanimate

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dread of Night

Wrapup

The Legacy landscape has definitely shifted since Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe left the format. While DRS allowed players to efficiently run three- and four-color decks without too much pain, we should now be getting back to more stable, two-color manabases, with perhaps a third color as a splash (like in Temur Delver).

Although the hurdle of dual lands remains, archetypes like Death & Taxes, Omni-Show and UB Shadow are looking very attractive to anyone who wants to venture into the "other" Eternal format. PT 25 definitely helped bring exposure to Legacy, with strong viewership through all three days of the event. Hopefully t,his will translate into more LGS events and increased attendance to the SCG Classic circuit, leading to potentially renewed demand for the format as whole.

As always, feel free to leave a comment below to let me know what you think of this review and/or if there are archetypes you believe should be discussed!

Lessons We Should Learn from Cards Badly in Need of a Reprint

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

If I were to make a list of the top cards that most badly need a reprint, the first several hundred cards would be everything on the Reserved List. I suppose that it goes without saying that the high demand and low supply on Old School cards is very real. Since we know the Reserved List is "Growing Strong" like House Tyrell, today's discussion will have more of a Stark "Winter is Comming" theme when it comes to potential financial moves.

"Winter is coming..." is perhaps a little bit ominous, but at the heart of those words is a reminder to pay attention to what is potentially coming on the horizon. We know that reprints tend to have a negative impact on the price of preexisting cards, since supply increases while the demand remains the same and/or goes down.

Obviously, from an investing theory point of view, it makes a lot of sense to pay attention to cards that are likely to be reprinted in the near future, because we don't want to be left holding the bag when those reprints are confirmed.

The increase in reprints has made any financial moves that do not involve hoarding Reserved List cards tricky, but there is clearly still money to be made. Today's article is about how to recognize cards that "need" a reprint so that we can avoid holding onto investments that are ripe to go rotten for too long.

5. Fetch Lands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn
There was an error retrieving a chart for Flooded Strand

But, Brian, these cards have already been reprinted...

I agree – but they likely need to be reprinted many, many more times in order to actually fill the demand for them in a meaningful way.

Consider this: fetch lands are more the building blocks of Modern and Legacy mana bases than basic or even dual lands. A typical deck will play more fetches than lands that can be searched up, sometimes at a 2-to-1 ratio. Fetch lands are the most played type of land across all of Magic.

If that is the case (and it is), it makes sense that the full forty set of fetches is something that every grinder would eventually aspire to have at their disposal for the purposes of deckbuilding. At the very least, the majority of players looking to play in a tournament will need some number of these cards just to field a deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

Every new player to the game will also need these cards at some point if they want to break into the non-rotating formats. From a practicality perspective, it doesn't make sense to have the building blocks of multiple formats this expensive on the secondary market. The inverse is a much better situation for growing the games, and also for Wizards selling cards directly to consumers.

Aside from simply throwing fetches into Masters packs, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the enemy fetches return in a Standard set/block, but likely without a dual land type to fetch up.

While I believe the necessity of fetches to simply play Magic ensures they will require repeated reprints, I also think there is value to be hand. In particular, the full-art Expedition copies are sharp, flashy, unique, and sufficiently scarce. The same can be said about the old-border Onslaught foil versions.

These are essentially the equivalent of Beta copies of dual lands that players love to use to bling out their decks. Even in a world where fetches are reprinted until they have little value, the rare premium copies would be likely to retain, and more likely gain, value in the long run.

So, while I'd be reluctant to hold on to tons of extra copies of fetches for too long, I would still be interested in stowing away the foils.

4. Goblin Lore

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Lore

Random $35 uncommons that go into tier-one Modern decks are bad for everybody. The same could be said about cards like Aether Vial or Mishra's Bauble, which have also seen reissue.

Reprinting uncommons with low availability and extremely high demand is a no-brainer for Wizards of the Coast. It is a way to really up the perceived value of whatever packs they put them into. It is also just a feel-good situation for everybody involved.

As a player, nothing is more annoying than having to pay a lot of money for something that I don't want to pay a lot of money for. It's not easy to justify, "Well, I'll never use this card outside of the next month or so – because it isn't an objectively great card." Take my money, please...

Goblin Lore is the kind of card that nobody actually ends up owning and everybody wants to rent. I'm borrowing Goblin Lores from a friend who borrowed them from a friend who borrowed them from a friend... Watch out for a reprint of this.

3. Nexus of Fate

Image result for nexus of fate

Nexus of Fate is one of the most ridiculous blunders I've seen Wizards make in the past few years, and honestly, that is really saying something.

I cannot overstate how much I hate the idea of Wizards putting out random promos that are legal in Standard (even though they are not included in a Standard-legal set) that have the potential to have high demand and thus ridiculous prices.

If this card was simply included in the set, even at mythic rare, it would still only be a fraction of the current price. The reason for the high price is that the card is hard to find. What part about playing Standard at FNM is improved by including a random, hard to find, expensive, buy-a-box promo in the format? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

I think it would be a huge mistake to not simply include this card in Guilds of Ravnica. Just throw it in there and stop the madness. Playing Standard, especially at the local level, should include none of what this card has done.

I understand the dynamic of wanting to create more unique cards and sell them in various venues, such as Planeswalker Decks or Buy-a-Box Promos, but everything about Nexus of Fate is a feel bad and look bad. It's possible the fad will simply die out and that the Turbo Fog deck is too one dimensional to adapt now that it is a known commodity. Either way, I think it is an ideal candidate for a reprint and a card that I would certainly not want to be left holding the bag on. I already sold the copies that I pulled out of bulk from buying boxes and sold them. No regrets.

2. Cavern of Souls

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cavern of Souls

If Modern is truly to be a format embraced and played by everyone, the first step (and there are many other steps necessary to make Modern more player friendly) is to get random $100 staples out of the format.

I take particular issue with lands being so expensive, because they are so fundamental to actually playing the game. I've often wondered why the land cycles are not printed at uncommon rather than rare. How annoying is it to open a rare mana fixer when you travel to a Sealed Grand Prix, RPTQ, or even a prerelease? It sucks. And there is really no good reason that the basic building blocks of the game should be rares.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greed

Cavern of Souls, on the other hand, does feel like a rare land to me. It's unique. It's not the basic building block of every deck, like fetch lands, but it is a key piece to specific tribal decks. In particular, it is part of the backbone of the Humans deck that protects those decks from counterspells and also allows them to essentially play all the best Humans across all of the colors.

Tribal strategies are a real thing across many formats – Goblins, Elves, Spirits, it goes on. Basically, name a creature type  and I'd play Cavern of Souls in that tribal deck. I've even played Cavern of Souls in Mishra's Workshop decks.

Requiring new players to drop $400 dollars as a cost of entry to build a tribal beatdown deck is an ugly look. Although Cavern has already seen a Masters reprint, the demand is still obviously unmet. I would be shocked if we didn't see a another reprint in the near future.

This card is so good and so fundamental to so many decks that until it is confirmed that more Caverns are going to be released, the price will continue go up. I don't think a Cavern reprint is so much an issue of "if" but rather of "when," which means that holding this card long enough to get maximum value but not being left holding the bag is the name of the game.

1. Oubliette

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oubliette

Interestingly enough, this Pauper All-Star from the Arabian Nights expansion is not on the Reserved List, which incorporated the uncommons from Arabian Nights and Antiquities, but not the commons.

Oubliette is a $55 common that is legal in Pauper and extremely difficult to acquire, seeing as it is from Arabian Nights. Again, this is not a good look. As the card is technically legal for selection as a potential reprint, I would fully expect to see it reprinted at some point in the future. It is also awkward that the card has been reprinted on MTGO but not in paper. So the card is cheap on MTGO but uber expensive in a physical format.

However, I don't think this means people should simply cast off their copies of Oubliette. Since the card is from an old, rare set and has amazing art, I would expect it to hold the lion's share of its value even after a reprint. The card is also played in Old School, which requires the old card face versions for play.

Over the past six or seven years since Masters reprints were announced, I've basically transformed my entire collection into a largely different group of cards. A decade ago, I realized that simply holding onto any Magic card was great value since it would eventually become expensive simply based on rising demand and short supply.

The introduction of reprints into the economy dramatically changed that. There is no guarantee that your card will ever be scarce when more copies can be produced and sold to the consumer at any time.

One of the keys to my having been able to transform my largely "Modern-centric" collection into a hoard of Old School and Reserved List cards was recognizing what I needed to trade away for better investment cards. On basically any card that isn't on the Reserved List, I'm willing to hedge my bets and sell into a spike. May the odds ever be in your favor, they say – and they are, when you sell into spikes before reprints arrive to satiate lopsided demand.

It is always useful to think about which cards "need" to be reprinted in order to make playing the game easier for the average player at the local game store. These are the players who buy the reprint packs, and they are the reason the reprint sets exist. Paying attention to what people need today is a great predictor of what Wizards will sell in the future. Use that to your advantage!

Harder, Faster: Welcoming Aggro’s New Arbiters

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Modern's current aggro decks are led by two governing forces: Hollow One and Vengevine. While sometimes played in the same deck, these cards each helm their own archetypes, and continue the big-creatures-quick tradition established at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch by Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher. At Pro Tour 25th Anniversary, Hollow One and Bridgevine established their own contemporary dominance.

The decks lack the punch of eight Eldrazi Temples, but are nonetheless built in a way that maximizes the reliability of their respective namesakes, each attacking from enough angles to weather the hate. Their existence and success is reshaping the Modern landscape, affecting everything from playable hate cards to respectable clocks.

This article compares the Hollow One and Bridgevine decks and examines the effects each has had on the Modern metagame.

Dissecting the Decks

Hollow One and Bridgevine abuse disparate engines in uncannily similar ways. Their shared gameplan is to quickly create a battlefield opponents cannot overcome. Go-wide creatures (Flamewake Phoenix; Goblin Bushwhacker) invalidate one-for-one removal; go-tall ones (Hollow One; Vengevine) blank the most popular targeting kill spells. Recursive threats and value engines (Bloodghast; Bridge from Below) counter sweeper effects. Spinning the gears in both cases is Faithless Looting, enabler extraordinaire and all-around fantastic cantrip in a format that rewards players for ignoring card advantage.

After reviewing some sample decklists from the Pro Tour, we'll contrast how each deck operates at different stages in the game.

Hollow One, by Ben Hull (1st, Pro Tour 25th Anniversary)

Creatures

4 Hollow One
3 Gurmag Angler
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Bloodghast
4 Flamewake Phoenix
4 Street Wraith

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Burning Inquiry
4 Goblin Lore
2 Collective Brutality

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Blood Crypt
3 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp

Sideboard

4 Leyline of the Void
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Grim Lavamancer
2 Thoughtseize
3 Fatal Push

BR Bridgevine, by Jacob Nagro (7th, Pro Tour 25th Anniversary)

Creatures

4 Vengevine
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Stitcher's Supplier
4 Gravecrawler
4 Bloodghast
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Greater Gargadon
4 Walking Ballista
3 Hangarback Walker

Enchantments

4 Bridge from Below

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting

Lands

2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Arid Mesa
4 Blood Crypt
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Leyline of the Void
2 Bitterblossom
3 Ingot Chewer
3 Lightning Axe
3 Thoughtseize

Early Aspirations

In the early-game, both decks can go for their Plan A of dumping many creatures into play. Sometimes, more setup is required.

Bridgevine takes this setup step more literally, as its one-drops attest to: Stitcher's Supplier and Insolent Neonate are both Dark Rituals of sorts that ramp the deck into above-curve plays. With a Bridge from Below in the graveyard, Walking Ballista and Hangerback Walker can be slammed for 0 and immediately die, creating Zombie tokens while triggering Vengevine. Looting fixes sketchy openers and Greater Gardadon threatens to upend a board state later.

In this phase, Hollow One is built to make bigger plays more reliably. It's got a Delver of Secrets in Flameblade Adept, which swings for a whopping four damage so long as Hollow One does what it was going to do anyway, and of course boasts the theoretical ceiling of dropping a playset of Hollow Ones into play as early as the first turn. Burning Inquiry therefore provides mana that can be "spent" right away, all while possibly disrupting opponents with lucky discards. Since opponents kept whatever hand, a turn one Burning frequently messes with their gameplan to some degree, and occasionally provides a huge swing.

Advantage: Hollow One

Mid-Game Middlings

Modern's new aggro kings are revered for their explosive early starts, but secretly prefer the mid-game. To be clear, the mid-game for these decks exists from anywhere between turns two and four.

Hollow One: With its early creatures dealt with, Hollow One enters the phase of recurring Flamewake Phoenix and soaring over the battlefield. This plan decimates aggro-control decks looking to gain an upper hand in the damage race, and Bloodghast adds insult to injury against attrition opponents that don't block, such as Jeskai Control. Flashed-back Lootings end up paying for themselves by rushing out more Hollow Ones and Gurmags, which in turn trigger Phoenix.

Bridgevine: This deck has hopefully accrued a respectable battlefield of 1/1s, 2/1s, and 2/2s at this point, and is looking to turn those bodies into victories. That's where Goblin Bushwhacker and Greater Gargadon come in. The former generates a huge damage swing as early as turn two, while the latter squeezes value out of removal-targeted creatures, protects graveyard-based threats from exiling removal, and grows Zombie tokens with Bridge from Below. Given multiple binned Bridges, Gargadon can double the size of an assault. The beast also comes off suspend itself towards the end of this phase, forcing opponents to deal with a huge body while counting as a cast creature for Vengevine.

Advantage: Bridgevine

Twilight Terrors

While neither deck strives to reach the late-game, such scenarios do occur. Hollow One hard-casts its threats at this point, and save for the odd Bloodghast or Phoenix, plays off the top of its deck.

Not true of Bridgevine, which tends to have more going on at this phase. Greater Gargadon might be on suspend; Bridge from Below makes it difficult for opponents to swing in with a big beater; Vengevine is like Ghast and Phoenix in one, if it can trigger. This deck too can hardcast its threats, only what Bridgevine can muster is much scarier than a 4/4: a loaded up Hangarback Walker, perhaps, or a lethal-reach Walking Ballista.

Advantage: Bridgevine

Assessing Weaknesses

While Bridgevine wins the above concours two-to-one, it's not the de-facto best deck. Bridgevine works hard for its mid- and late-game synergies, and pays for them after sideboarding; graveyard hate is far more effective against this strategy than against Hollow One.

Both decks resist hosers to some degree: Hollow One doesn't need the graveyard to close out games with Adept and its 4/4, or even a hard-cast Phoenix. Bridgevine's plan is to get under Rest in Peace, the elephant in the room, by setting up a board intimidating enough to punish opponents from tapping out for an enchantment. Such a setup isn't always possible, though.

Anger of the Gods is a doozy against Bridgevine even with Gargadon suspended—sure, its creatures aren't gone for good, but even the 2/2s Bridge makes in the process are exiled, making Bridgevine unlikely to have pressure left over. The deck is worse than Dredge at rebuilding after such a sweep, as it burns through in-hand resources quickly to set up an initial board.

Bridgevine, for better and for worse, is more synergy-focused than Hollow One, which exists more on the goodstuff side of the spectrum. Its gameplan is therefore more streamlined, but less robust in the face of heavy-duty disruption.

The Colorless Quandary

Prior to Hollow One and Bridgevine breaking out, another deck existed in Modern that operated in a similar manner: my own Colorless Eldrazi Stompy. Colorless uses Serum Powder to constantly open hands with Eldrazi Temple, a card that allows us to spend far more mana than opponents on already pushed creatures. In addition to disruptive beaters (Thought-Knot Seer), hasty closers (Reality Smasher), and a Delver-style early clock (Eldrazi Mimic), the deck also runs a compact value package that blanks all enemy removal: Eternal Scourge plus Relic of Progenitus.

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eternal Scourge
4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Matter Reshaper

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Scavenger Grounds
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Gut Shot
1 Gemstone Caverns

So where does Colorless fit in now? I'd rate the deck as relatively proactive, relatively interactive, and highly consistent. By comparison, Hollow One and Bridgevine are both highly proactive, minimally interactive, and relatively consistent. In other words, Colorless is a slower, more disruptive version of these decks; think Mardu Pyromancer over something like Jund. Colorless Eldrazi Stompy's disruption suite is anchored by Chalice of the Void, which we have a better time casting on turn one than anyone else in Modern.

There's one small caveat to my claim about consistency. Colorless has an easier time coming out of the gate, or setting up an early game that plays to its strengths. While Hollow One and Bridgevine are likelier to stumble in the first few turns, they're also likelier to have seen more of their deck in the mid-game, and to enjoy access to the majority of their packages. They're both more consistent later on, except when facing down graveyard hosers.

I still think this deck has a place in the metagame, but I no longer believe it's the straight-up best thing to be doing in Modern. Other strategies have moved in to claim a slice of our niche, and in some regards beat us at our own game.

What Else Is New

The rise of Hollow One and Bridgevine has had a couple subtle effects on the metagame.

Less Clunky Hate

Unwieldy hate cards are becoming less popular, especially Blood Moon. And no wonder: Hollow One and Bridgevine both plan to kill before those hosers can come online or at least make much of a difference.

Aggro decks used to run Blood Moon in their sideboards to get under the big mana decks, but today's aggro decks are less fair than ever. Hollow One and Bridgevine both occupy the aggro-combo shard of the archetype. These faster aggressive decks don't need Blood Moon to get under Tron; they can just end the game more quickly instead.

The recursive combo element in these decks also gives them game against midrange. Part of what made Blood Moon so appealing in the past was its applications against aggro-control, which frequently dipped into three colors (i.e. Jund, Jeskai). But Flamewake Phoenix and Bridge from Below give Modern's aggro newcomers plenty of existing tools in those matchups, too.

Replacing the clunky hate in sideboards is... well, Damping Sphere. At just two mana, Sphere is cheaper than Moon, and also attacks Modern's premier non-Tron combo decks: Storm and Ironworks, neither of which particularly cares about enemy Moons. That's significant coverage for such a splashable card. At the time of writing, Damping Sphere makes the format's Top 10 list of most-played cards according to tournament aggregate MTGGoldfish.

I expect this trend to continue and evolve to beat Hollow One and Bridgevine. Both decks already pack a set of Leyline of the Void, a fine card in the mirror with very low opportunity cost—pilots can simply discard dead copies (it also prevents opponents from exiling Bridge naturally). While non-Looting decks may not have that luxury, I'd expect Nihil Spellbomb to sustain prominence in black midrange decks, and perhaps for Tormod's Crypt to surface elsewhere.

The sideboard card I think stands to gain the most from Modern's new paradigm shift is Surgical Extraction. While it doesn't shut down the entire graveyard, Surgical takes care of whatever graveyard synergy is happening in the moment, removing all copies of Flamewake Phoenix, Vengevine, or Bridge from Below before they can wreak any sort of havoc. The card also boasts applications against Modern's pure combo decks. Best of all, it costs no mana, meaning virtually any deck can splash it.

Fewer Lackluster Attackers

Scoot over, Wild Nacatl—one mana for a 3/3 just ain't that impressive a rate anymore. Modern players the world over are getting 4/4s for zero! Goodstuff combat creatures in general seem to have taken a major hit, chief among them the chief among them, Tarmogoyf. Playing Goyf had already been complicated by Fatal Push when Hollow One and Bridgevine rolled around, but now the creature's got bigger issues, literally.

Not that Hollow One and Bridgevine are the only playable aggro decks; far from it. Rather, the remaining aggro decks are just less concerned with raw efficiency relative to synergy, leaving them open to narrower means of disruption (i.e. damage-based sweepers). This trend extends from ostensibly fair tribal decks like Spirits and Humans to the combo end of things, shared with Hollow and Bridge by Affinity and Infect.

Better, Stronger

Hollow One and Bridgevine are sure to be extremely popular in the coming weeks, and then die down as the metagame adapts. Such is always the case with breakout decks in Modern. But once the metagame's adapted, Modern will look different than it did before, now informed by the fresh faces of aggro-combo. How do you think the format will shake out? Let me know in the comments.

Daily Stock Watch – Omnath, Locus of Rage

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello, everyone and welcome to the freaky Friday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! We've been talking about Modern cards for the whole week and almost all of the cards I featured in this segment are parts of the BR Vengevine list from the recently concluded Pro Tour 25th Anniversary. But since it's a Friday, I'll be featuring a card that has spiked outta nowhere even though it's not seeing competitive play in Standard, Modern, or Legacy. Today's star is a mythic rare from Battle for Zendikar who is actually a pretty decent choice for a general in Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Rage

Omnath, Locus of Rage had a mini spike today as it returned to the $5 mark after spending the past two years in $2 territory. Is there a new combo that's making Omnath suddenly precious? I certainly haven't heard of anything special but if you know something that we don't, just hit the comments section and share the secret with us.

I've done some research and what has caused this uptick in its price is the buyout that has just happened online to the major stores such as StarCityGames, ChannelFireball, and Card Kingdom. This is usually the case for mythics (or even rares) that have lots of casual and Commander appeal and hasn't been reprinted yet in any supplemental product or Masters sets. This card was barely playable when it was Standard legal, as it was deemed too slow and not so impactful value-wise if you're topdecking a bomb in the late game with an empty hand. The same can't be said for Commander, as there will always be value for it at any point of the game whenever you have the mana to cast it. Building around this will result in a mana-heavy, stompy like deck that looks to take advantage of its abilities and land count.

Omnath Land Rage Lord

Commander

Creatures

Planeswalkers

Instants and Sorceries

Artifacts and Enchantments

Lands

This deck has so much love for lands and it's easy to see why. You could start dropping 5/5 elementals every turn by turn 4 or 5 consistently, considering that Omnath is active in play and has yet to eat a removal from your opponent(s). It's a fairly competitive Commander deck at the very least but it's not really popular among the hardcore crowd. This price will surely stick until its next reprint so I guess we'll have to get used to it for a while.

Landfall Lovers

There's a healthy dose of cards out there that trigger their abilities off the landfall mechanic and we could only expect more of them to come in coming sets. It could actually be one of the themes that could be considered for future Masters sets for all we know so there might be an added incentive in investing on some of these cards. As much as I love Omnath's design, I just don't think that it's gonna hold its value once it reaches $10 (which I think it inevitably will in the coming months) so now might be both the best time to speculate on it and sell it.

As I've mentioned earlier, the major stores are out of stock of this card and there are still a few vendors via TCGPlayer who are selling copies in the $5-$9 range. Foil copies of this card have always been in the $20 and above range, but it might be a better spec than normal copies if you could get it for $15 or less. There should be some short term growth for it financially and that would be our window to make a profit out of it.

And that’s it for this week's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Daily Stock Watch – Leyline of the Void

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I guess it's safe to assume that cards will continue to spike for days once a new deck with the potential to be a top tier one emerges after a big event. It could either be a spike caused by the demand for playing with it, or one that's caused by the need to have an answer for it. Today's card is a double-edged sword that has implications caused by what has been a hot topic for Modern over the past week, as it could be an offensive tool for the deck but at the same time is something that the deck doesn't want to stumble upon when sideboards come into play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline of the Void

People are still skeptic if BR Vengevine is actually better than Hollow One in Modern right now. I'm about to try playing the bridge-based deck and see how far it could go in an actual event and if people will really struggle to play against it in the case that it bricks itself in the first three turns (where it could finish off games quickly by clogging the board unfairly, I heard) and the game drags on to the mid game where Hollow One is still in a position to win. Leyline of the Void just spiked hard today because the demand for it has drastically increased with the rise in the number of these two graveyard-reliant decks and the utmost need of the bridge deck to keep its strategy intact by playing the Leyline off the board.

BR Vengevine

Creatures

3 Bloodghast
3 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Gravecrawler
2 Greater Gargadon
3 Hangarback Walker
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Stitcher's Supplier
4 Vengevine
3 Viscera Seer
4 Walking Ballista

Instants and Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
1 Cathartic Reunion

Other Spells

4 Bridge from Below

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Blood Crypt
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Mountain
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Bitterblossom
3 Ingot Chewer
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Lightning Axe
3 Thoughtseize

This is the list that I'm thinking of playing and I was about to buy a pair of Leylines to complete my set when I saw it has already spiked. It's essential in matchups where your opponent could just very well sacrifice a creature to exile the Bridge from Below that you worked so hard for to bury in your graveyard, or against opposing decks that are just as graveyard-reliant as you are (Dredge, Hollow One). We could also consider the fact that outside of Guildpact and Magic 2011, there's no Masters set where this card has seen a reprint but if my guess for a graveyard-themed Masters will happen in the near future, we could just be staring at the possibility soon enough. For the time being, we'll work on what we have on hand and that's the reality that this card just breached the $50 mark and is looking to go way over that in the coming weeks.

The Leyline Series

I have always had a fascination for cards that you can cast for free and will stay significant at any point of the game. This is something that the cards from the Leyline cycle has done even though not all of them are even worth looking at for competitive play. Leyline of the Void and Leyline of Sanctity are the breakout cards from this cycle, with Leyline of Anticipation getting some love from the Commander community, and will continue to be the favorite sideboard cards in Modern and Legacy for the many years to come. It's quite possible that they will get reprinted again sooner than later or a new cycle of these cards might come into circulation. It would be best to learn from these lessons as we make future purchases for cards along these lines.

At the moment, Leyline of the Void is out of stock from big online stores such as StarCityGames, ChannelFireball, and CardKingdom for both GPT and M11 versions. Some vendors still have normal copies ranging from $48.99 (moderately played) up to $104.99 (near mint) via TCGPlayer if you ever need it for playing. I don't see this as a spec target anymore, considering how high it hit the roof after this spike. If you were lucky enough to get some for reselling before this spike, you're in a very good position now to hold on to them. They should hit $70 soon enough if more Vengevine decks become popular.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Unlocked: Maximizing Your Store Real Estate

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome back, readers!

Today’s article is predominantly aimed at store owners (and future store owners). While it may not be the most glamorous topic, how you layout your store can affect your bottom line.

Game stores by definition don’t typically maximize their retail space because doing so would eliminate playing space, so they will differ from most retail stores because of this. That doesn’t mean that one can’t use knowledge gained from the retail industry and apply it to your game store though.

General Considerations

Decompression Zone

One retail store concept that is easily applicable to all stores is the idea of a “decompression zone” located immediately upon entering. The basic idea is that when people enter a store they need some space to decompress from everything before getting into the shopping. This means that there needs to be some open space right at the entrance to the store, so no kiosks, shelves, walls, etc. right near the entrance.

Industry standard suggests a five-foot clearance for small stores and 15 feet for larger stores. Retail sales studies show that products/kiosks that violate this rule don’t tend to have good sales anyways.

Aisle Size

Aisle size is another basic consideration required for all store owners. For those in the US, you need to be aware of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), which requires that all aisles be at least three feet wide. When catering to gamers, aisle width is definitely something you want to be considerate of anyways. Not doing this can lead to fines and make customers feel cramped.

There are psychological studies showing that people will very often bypass an aisle in which they feel they may have to “butt brush” against another customer (when you have to squeeze by someone and your butts touch), even if there is something there they may be interested in.

As Americans drive on the right side of the road, we have a tendency to turn right when we enter a store—the opposite has been found to be true of those who come from countries in which driving occurs on the left side of the road. This means that you’re wisest to place your most desirable products to the side of the entrance that corresponds to your country's driving laws, as they will see the most views.

For those in other countries you will need to review your laws to determine if there are any similar requirements for aisle sizing.

Real Estate Value

One other aspect we want to make sure we consider is that a game store is different from most retail stores, and in fact shares a fair amount with coffee shops.

For most retail stores (clothing, shoe stores, etc.) the available space can be divided into several categories, which have values assigned to them based on the particular type of store.

  • Retail Visible Space - Where goods are displayed.
  • Travel Space - The space between rows that allow for traffic.
  • Storage Space - Backrooms and offices needed to run the business, but which don't contribute directly to sales.
  • Restrooms - Arguably a necessity, but don't generate sales.
  • Transactional Space - Cash registers and checkout areas.

You can establish a baseline value of the retail square footage by calculating how much space you have to display your retail goods and dividing by the average revenue per month. Knowing this, and your store dimensions, you could maximize your available retail space (similar to how Amazon's system figures out the ideal box to place your item in and why you sometimes get a small item in a large box).

You could actually take this a step further if you track sales of particular items and know their location. You might find that some areas provide more profit per square foot per month, and thus choose to expand your selection of those products, or perhaps reduce your offerings on products that don't sell as well. This would be optimizing your retail space to maximize profit.

I mentioned at the beginning of this section that game stores share some similarities with coffee shops. Both store types offer a place for customers to sit down and enjoy themselves with no guarantee of additional profits from those customers (although they often do purchase additional goods while on site).

These types of stores have found that there is clear value in offering a place to rest and relax without accruing extra fees/charges/etc. I wasn't able to find concrete data to compare a coffee shop that simply had a counter to one with a sit-down area, but when you look at the most successful coffee chains in the world (mainly Starbucks) they all have sit down areas. Given the location of many of these stores, this area likely has a negative dollar/square foot/month value; but they're required because customers expect it.

The same is true of a game store. If I buy cards, board games, of miniatures from a store, I naturally expect the store to offer me a place to play them (which is very different from video game stores or movie stores), and I imagine most of my readers feel the same way. Because of this, you need to assign some space to allow customers to try out their purchases.

Luckily, Magic cards are very small and a large number of them can fit into a square foot of retail space. This means you can display a significant amount of inventory without requiring a significant amount of Retail Visible Space to do so. This situation is rather unique, and quite beneficial to a game store owner.

So when establishing your layout (which I'll discuss below), it's wise to determine how much Retail Visible Space you feel you will need, but also not to neglect your play space.

Measuring Your Store Dimensions

Before you can figure out your overall store layout you will need to determine the physical dimensions of what you have available, as well as note any immovable features. It's best to make sure there aren't any building codes that must be followed as well, as you don't want to risk violating any.

Ideally the owner of the property you are renting from should be able to provide you with a general layout of the facility including all dimensions. If this isn't available, get a good long measuring tape and do it yourself.

Before you begin, you'll want a fairly large piece of grid paper, ideally something larger than 8.5 x 11 or A3.

  1. Measure the outer dimensions of your store (wall-to-wall in both directions), and any additional features that either add or subtract from the overall dimensions (like perhaps an alcove). By establishing the outermost dimensions you can now define a scale for everything else.
  2. Using this as your template, you can then lay a clear plastic sheet over the top and try out some different layouts from the list below. I suggest the clear plastic because while your outer dimensions and immovable objects are stationary, you may want to try out different layouts and get customer feedback on any preferred ones.
  3. Once you've created your first layout calculate the following:
    1. Total amount of Retail Visible Space
    2. Total amount of Play Space
    3. Total amount of Travel Space
    4. Total amount of Transactional Space (in this instance it can be both the cash registers and your "buying" space).
  4. Now try a different layout and again calculate the totals of the various spaces. Ideally fiddle with things until you get an optimal (or more optimal) layout.
  5. It's also important to keep in mind that you'll need tables for your play space, and most tables come in set length/widths so you will want to keep those in mind when doing layouts.

General Types of Layouts

Straight Floor Plan

The straight floor plan is exactly what you would expect. Everything is horizontal or vertical in a straight line. This is a pretty standard style layout you often see in grocery stores or bulk stores like Costco or Sam's Club (here in the US).

Diagonal Floor Plan

The diagonal floor plan is laid out diagonally. You often see this in convenience stores.

Angular Floor Plan

This floor plan is typically used in specialty stores (like boutiques or higher-end clothing stores). It's important to note that this style tends to have a higher amount of travel space in order to direct customers around the retail space, so you sacrifice retail space in this layout.

Geometric Floor Plan

The geometric layout is often seen in sporting goods stores or big-box stores (though they tend to be divided into sections with large walkways between each section).

Mixed Floor Plan

As its name implies, this style is a mix between the others.

You can find additional information on store layouts here.

Conclusion

Now that you understand the basics of store real estate, hopefully this will allow you to review your current layout, or plan out any future store openings. In my experience, many store owners are good at running their stores, but may not be aware of tools that can help them optimize their stores to increase profits. One important way to do this is by understanding the value of your store's real estate and determining the best ratio between Retail Visible Space and all other space.

This is especially important because most retail rent is established from a dollar-per-square-foot algorithm, so ideally you want to make sure you have the right amount of square footage for your store (both for determining how large or small a space you should be renting, and to eliminate any wasted space you might have).

I'd really enjoy hearing people's input on this subject—especially store owners. To my knowledge, nobody's covered this topic before, either here or on other sites, and I'm curious to hear what approaches have worked for people.

Unlocked: MTGO Market Report for August 8th, 2018

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of August 6, 2018. The TCGplayer market and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the market price or mid price respectively. Redeemable sets are highlighted in green and sets not available for redemption are highlighted in red.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although Hour of Devastation (HOU), Amonkhet (AKH), Aether Revolt (AER), and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

Standard

There's no sign yet of the reprinted Ixalan (XLN) and Rivals of Ixalan (RIX) redemption sets in the store yet. The only available set for redemption in the store remains Dominaria (DAR), both regular and foil versions. Redeemers are no doubt salivating over the juicy paper/digital spread for Core Set 2019 (M19) but it looks like it won't be this week that redemption goes live for that set.

Elsewhere, we are getting close to setting an ignominious mark for a Standard set with Hour of Devastation (HOU) almost hitting single digits. Never before has a Standard-legal set sunk to such a low price. The premier card of the set remains The Scarab God, but the decline from its peak price of close to 50 tix is astounding. The current price of 1.3 tix for that card represents a 97-percent decline.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Scarab God

Amonkhet (AKH) isn't faring much better and is close behind at 13 tix. Ordinarily, any kind of record price low would get my contrarian instincts flowing. I would start to scour these two sets for Standard bounce-back candidates and cheap Modern staples, but we are in a new era of speculation as a result of Treasure Chests, so setting a new record low price for a Standard set is not a reliable signal for value.

If I were familiar with the Standard metagame and how it might shift in the coming weeks, then I would be more willing to explore buying single cards for value. But I have no special knowledge at the moment and fall rotation is less than two months away at this point. Although it looks like that event is already fully priced into these two sets, it's not the right time to be a buyer from a top-down perspective. When we get near the end of September and into early October, cards like Hollow One, Hour of Promise, Hazoret the Fervent and Gideon of the Trials will be worth considering from AKH block.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Walking Ballista

The price of Aether Revolt (AER) and Kaladesh (KLD) are holding up much better in comparison, which attests to the power level of these two sets. When it comes time to be a buyer of rotating Standard cards in October, I would focus my attention on these two sets first. In particular, a card like Walking Ballista which shows up in multiple archetypes will be a strong speculative target. The KLD fast lands are also high on the list of targets.

Modern

The 25th anniversary of Magic's Pro Tour took place last weekend, which gave us a look at what the pros had been up to in Modern. Although the top finishing decks were Humans, Ironworks Combo and Hollow One, the team nature of the event means that these were not necessarily the best Modern decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Krark-Clan Ironworks

The new kid on the block is B/R Vengevine, a novel combination of graveyard-focused cards with surprising inclusions like Walking Ballista and Hangarback Walker. Ordinarily, you would expect to see these artifacts in a Tron deck where they can take advantage of the vast amounts of mana generated by Urza's Tower and company, but it's being able to cast these creatures for zero mana that makes them attractive. Doing so helps to trigger Vengevine and Bridge from Below.

Stitcher's Supplier is another rather innocuous card from M19 that is helping to pull this deck together. Getting three cards into the graveyard right off the top for one mana might be enough, but you get a second round of cards into the graveyard when it dies. To top it all off, it's a relevant Zombie creature type, which allows the return of Gravecrawler from the graveyard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stitcher's Supplier

This deck is still in development, so it's not yet clear what the optimal build is and what it's potential is. This is the first legitimate use of Bridge From Below since Golgari Grave-Troll was banned a second time. This is probably contributing to the deck's early success as Modern players will be unfamiliar with playing against this enchantment.

I don't think the speculative potential on this deck and its components is exhausted, so it will be worth watching if it can sustain some success going forward. Regardless of what happens with this particular archetype, graveyard sideboard pieces remain a hot commodity. In particular, cards like Leyline of the Void and Surgical Extraction can go in any sideboard as graveyard hate, which makes them particularly good speculative targets. I'll be targeting these two cards in October when interest in Modern wanes.

Standard Boosters

DAR draft sets continue to power higher and now sit at 8.1 tix. For comparison, a draft set of M19 costs 9.7 tix so there is still a substantial discount to enter the DAR draft queues versus the M19 leagues. Helping to push the price of DAR boosters higher is the value of the contents. With cards like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria at 39 tix and Karn, Scion of Urza also over 30 tix. DAR is the most expensive set in Standard by a substantial amount and this is helping to push the price of DAR boosters up.

The move up in the last month has been impressive. The price of a DAR booster got below 2 tix in early July and it is up nearly 1 tix since that time. Have a look at how DAR boosters have fared with the chart below, courtesy of Goatbots. If this is the new price pattern that speculators can expect from boosters going forward, then it will be a lucrative strategy indeed.

For the rest of the month, the interest in DAR draft will remain high. It's regarded as one of the finest sets for Draft in recent memory, so it's a very compelling alternative to the core set for many players. Once we get into September, though, Cube draft will restart along with previews from Guilds of Ravnica (GRN). This will reduce the interest in tired draft formats and prices of DAR and M19 boosters will both head lower as a result. This means that the next month is the prime window for selling DAR boosters while the next big buying opportunity for boosters won't arrive until the end of September when GRN is released, pushing M19 into the draft queues and removing DAR draft. Have some tix ready to buy M19 boosters at that time to capture some solid gains from a cyclical and predictable trade.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I took advantage of the surging price of a set of DAR to sell my sets that I bought last month. Net profit per set ended up being 22 tix which means a thirty percent return in a month.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

This is a great return and as a result, I'll be looking to expand my full set purchases when it comes time to be a buyer of M19 in September. The move away from two set blocks means that less supply of a given set will be released by the time it leaves the draft leagues. Less supply means the potential for explosive price increases is higher and the potential for M19 will also be high due to Standard rotation.

Daily Stock Watch – Stitcher’s Supplier (FOIL)

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I haven't shown much love to foil cards on this segment and the last time that I covered one (Field of Ruin) was way back in the day when it was still on the rise. Our card for today is another one of those surprise Standard stunners that is due to become a multi-format staple despite of it being an uncommon, therefore putting a lot of premium on its foil version. The card is undeniably strong and useful, and will definitely command a lot of attention from people who'd want it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stitcher's Supplier

Stitcher's Supplier is a slam-dunk addition to God-Pharaoh's Gift decks that have made waves in recent Standard events, and it has showed more weapons up its arsenal by becoming a vital cog to the new BR Vengevine list that has made its way to the top eight of the Pro Tour 25th's Modern category. It has been doing so well that it inspired other players to make a run for a Zombie deck even in Legacy that is of course, powered by the evil Bridge from Below that produces a horde of the walking dead for as long as it's in your graveyard.

Walking Dead

Creatures

2 Dark Confidant
4 Bloodghast
4 Carrion Feeder
4 Gravecrawler
4 Stitcher's Supplier

Instants and Sorceries

4 Entomb
1 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
4 Faithless Looting
4 Cabal Therapy

Other Spells

2 Goblin Bombardment
3 Bridge from Below
1 Phyrexian Altar

Lands

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Undiscovered Paradise
2 Phyrexian Tower
2 Marsh Flats
2 Bayou
3 Badlands
3 Polluted Delta
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Urborg Justice
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Pyroblast
1 Pithing Needle
1 Null Rod
1 Nature's Claim
2 Magus of the Moon
1 Lightning Bolt
1 Golgari Charm
1 Darkblast
1 Chains of Mephistopheles
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Abrupt Decay

The list isn't your typical Zombie deck that just overruns its opponents with cheap, resilient, yet powerful creatures on every turn. It is fueled by the strength of graveyard recursion from cards such as Bloodghast and Gravecrawler while being abused for mana by Phyrexian Altar. With a Bridge in your graveyard, recurring the creatures for no cost (thanks to the altar!) produces 2/2 zombies which in turn can be sacrificed yet again for free to Goblin Bombardment which is kind of hard to stop even for a blue-powered deck once it has resolved. In a worst case scenario, you could just beat down your opponent with a platoon of zombies that will keep on coming as the game progresses. Everything is made easy by a turn one Stitcher's Supplier as things could go off as early as turn two once the foundation for the game plan has been set.

Right now, the foil version of Stitcher's Supplier is sitting at an average price of a whopping $20.36, which is considerably high for an active Standard uncommon even if it's the foiled version. I find this justifiable and relatively profitable in the future if you could get it for a bargain or be lucky enough to crack it in Sealed events. There's just an awful lot of things that you could set off by damping three cards to your graveyard on turn one (Faithless Looting can only afford to do two but it lets you draw) and having it die for three more is just gravy. Is the card broken beyond repair? I don't think so. It will still require some luck and variance for your game plan to succeed if this card is in your deck but if it was designed to have a hit rate of about 70% every time Stitcher's Supplier mills cards off the top of your deck, that means you're in good position to win every game you play.

Stitcher and its Close Friends

I don't see the need to add Stitcher's Supplier to the current Hollow One list but it certainly deserves a second look if we are to play creatures from that core. This card will be played all the way to Legacy for as long as players are willing to explore that option and that will only keep pushing its foil price to greater heights. Try snagging as much as you can while it's still cheap. You'd be in for a treat in the long run for this investment.

Right now, you could only find foil copies of this card via some vendors in TCGPlayer for anywhere between $17.99 up to $21. StarCityGames, Card Kingdom, and ChannelFireball are all out of stock and should restock in the $20 range pretty soon. It won't be that hard to find copies of this card as Core 2019 is in full circulation, but make sure that you get them cheaper than the market price for more profit. Don't invest if you're not confident with foil prices going forward -- this is going to be a long term project.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Return to the PPTQ Grind: Week 2

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

After a week off, it's time to get back on the grind. While there were PPTQ's last week, they were well outside my willingness to travel. I instead used that time to refine my decks and  get a feel for where the metagame was going. I intended to hit both Modern PPTQ's this weekend, but due to traffic I missed the Saturday event and only played on Sunday.

My quick take on the Pro Tour: don't read too much into the results. It's a team event and a Pro Tour, so every result is distorted. The former means that a deck's placing isn't necessarily indicative of its own performance or power, but on the rest of the team. The latter means that players were heavily metagaming against other Pro Teams with the assumption that Humans would be heavily played. It's fun to ogle all the decklists, but I wouldn't assume they're indicative of what's actually good.

The Deck

Once again, I didn't have any particularly outstanding deck for the weekend. Both UW Spirits and Jeskai Tempo were doing well for me, but both have their bad matchups that cycle in and out of the metagame. Tron is declining locally while Collected Company decks were returning after months away, a negative for Spirits and plus for Jeskai. I was also still undecided on the flex slots for Spirits; Reflector Mage was fine, but it didn't shine. I was definitely leaning Jeskai as my default this week.

Once I arrived at the tournament site, I realized Company was far more popular this week than expected. Over half of the players I recognized were dedicated Company pilots. Watching deck registration and practice games showed there was also a surplus of graveyard-heavy decks and Eldrazi. The former deck is good but not exceptional for Jeskai, while the other two are mediocre at best. Given this field, I felt that my best bet was to avoid fighting fair and sleeved up Storm.

Gifts Storm, David Ernenwein (PPTQ Deck)

Creatures

4 Goblin Electromancer
3 Baral, Chief of Compliance

Instants

2 Opt
1 Repeal
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Pyretic Ritual
4 Manamorphose
2 Remand
1 Abrade
1 Unsubstantiate
4 Gifts Ungiven

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand
2 Past in Flames
2 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens

Lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Spirebluff Canal
4 Shivan Reef
2 Island
2 Snow-Covered Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Blood Moon
2 Pieces of the Puzzle
2 Gigadrowse
2 Echoing Truth
2 Dispel
2 Vandalblast
2 Empty the Warrens

I've diversified the answer package so I can Gifts for answers and always have two. I know that Bolt is seeing more play in Storm sideboards, but Humans is rare in Colorado. Against the other creature decks, the main plan is to just race and I already have plenty of answers maindeck for Eidolon of the Great Revel or Eidolon of Rhetoric. Jund and Jeskai are popular enough that I still want Blood Moon, despite the card's seeing little play in other Storm decks.

The Tournament

The site was a store that I thought closed last year. It's been through a lot of managerial drama and moved locations. Despite all that, there was just enough room to comfortably seat all 47 players. I was surprised that the turnout was that low compared to last time, especially considering it was centered in a Magic hotbed, but it was the third PPTQ that weekend. There was also an excess of ventilation, so it was almost too cool inside for players to stay indoors.

My scouting was accurate: about a third of the room was on some Company deck. In past years, Company was a very popular deck, but its share has been declining for some time. Part of that may be a number of Company pilots have been playing less and just came back for PPTQ season. However, the card did win a PPTQ last week, so it's equally possible that it was the flavor of the week. In any case, it was getting picked apart. There were a lot of non-typical Eldrazi decks present, along with different versions of control. The graveyard decks were fewer than I thought based on scouting, but every flavor was present, from true Dredge to BR Vengevine.

I'm feeling very proud of my room-reading and deck choice when I'm paired against a Company-playing long-time nemesis round one. However, things went downhill after that win. I lose to Ironworks, BR Hollow One, and Jund before dropping.

What Happened

I just came up short. Literally. I was one mana short of lethally comboing Games 1 and 3 against Ironworks. I was a spell (any spell) short of beating Jund in Game 1, and a land short in Game 2. The Ironworks games in particular I felt like I could have won, but I couldn't figure out how in the moment. It was a tournament where I felt like I was just slightly out of my depth. I'm not sure that I actually could have won, but I definitely feel like I could have if I were a real Storm player.

Round one was easy. I wasn't really under pressure, so I Abraded his Devoted Druid to not get cheesed, and went off several turns later once certain I wouldn't fizzle. Game 2 saw more of the same, only this time I had to answer Damping Sphere. Fortunately, I just played around it with sorcery cantrips on my turn, followed by Opt and Gifts Ungiven on his. I sculpted until I couldn't fail to remove Sphere and went off. Sphere is only good backed by a clock.

Round two was hard, especially because my opponent had played Storm before switching to Ironworks. As a result, he knew exactly how to split my Gifts given the situation, and how to maneuver around me. He was also playing Path to Exile in addition to sideboard removal, which made things much harder.

In Game 1, we both sculpted for many turns. I couldn't go off and he was playing around Remand, which I didn't have. We reached a point where he could get Ironworks down through Remand, so he was certain to go for it; therefore, I had to go first. He had out Pyrite Spellbomb, so my Goblin Electromancer was sure to die mid-combo, but if I hit either an untapped land, ritual, or Baral off of chained Manamorphose, I could win anyway. I didn't, and he untapped and killed me.

Game 2 was a drawn-out affair. He stopped me from comboing off twice by killing my enabler, leaving me short, but I stopped him by Vandalblasting his Ironworks in response to Scrap Trawler. My last card was Past in Flames, and I had enough lands to untap and combo without an enabler.

For Game 3, I had access to a turn-three kill as long as he failed to kill my enabler. He did with Path, but I again had outs: finding another ritual through chained Manamorphose would yield a win. I didn't, and so set up to win the following turn. My opponent denied me that turn.

Round three was against BR Hollow One, and I felt helpless. In Game 1, he dumped his hand on turn two after wrecking me with a Burning Inquiry. In Game 2, I had to navigate around Leyline of the Void and multiple discard spells, but he didn't have a clock; I eventually sculpted into two massive Empty the Warrens for the win.

Game 3 saw another Leyline, which denied me a fast kill; Burning Inquiry took my backup plan. Nothing happened for so long that my opponent found time to play all his Faithless Lootings and eventually find the means to kill me. There were a number of decision points where I felt in retrospect the line I took was wrong, but I'm not sure why and I don't know what I should have done differently.

Round four against Jund was a bit of a gimp match. We both mulliganed both games, and my mulligans are punished with lots of discard spells. I could have won Game 2 if I'd drawn the land to Blood Moon him out of the game before he found another discard spell, but I didn't. Neither of us drew very well, but his cards are better than mine; in a game of handicapped Magic, the raw-power deck is advantaged.

Lessons Learned

Storm is a hard deck. It can win any game on the back of its power. It may also just fall apart. The hardest part is knowing which hands are real keeps in the situation. The second is knowing when to wait and when to just go for the win. I consider myself a decent Storm player, but by no means an expert. I didn't have to be anything other than decent to win round one, in which I had all the time in the world. I feel like a more experienced pilot could have found the winning lines I didn't against Ironworks and Hollow One.

For example, in round three, Game 3, I had the choice of Repealing either Engineered Explosives or Flameblade Adept in response to Burning Inquiry, hoping he discards one. Taking Explosives means Empty the Warrens is an option, but I don't have one in hand, nor could I storm for very much at the time.

Bouncing Adept would remove my opponent's clock and blank the Flamewake Phoenixes from his graveyard so I'd have more time to sculpt and kill with Grapeshot. I took Adept which he did discard, but I never drew enough relevant spells afterward to win. However, I don't know if I was supposed to go for Explosives to open up Warrens or just not Repeal anything. I did have Warrens at the end, but I couldn't storm for very much.

Again, it may not be relevant, but a better Storm pilot would know. The lesson here is that I need to get more practice in with all my decks. I'm proficient with Storm; that's not the same as being good. I was trying to sneak in a victory by going somewhat rogue, but Storm isn't such a sneaky deck anymore. If I want to do that, I'll need Bogles or Dredge.

On the Build

On the one hand, having the additional Gifts targets was extremely useful. I won Game 2 against Abzan Company after Gifting for four answers to save myself from the Vizier combo and also answer Damping Sphere. On the other, it felt like I was running a pile of compromises. I also realize that this is becoming the norm, but this weekend left me with the impression that Modern may have caught up to Storm, and now it just isn't enough.

The deck's overall strength hasn't diminished and I'm still fine including it in my arsenal, but there's some niggling feeling that it's now behind the curve. I'll be exploring this feeling and trying to identify the problem during the week. I won't be making any build changes until I have some idea why I feel down on the deck.

I am happy that I ran Storm, despite what I just said and my final result. Given the field, I definitely dodged a lot of very poor matchups by playing Storm, and also gave myself some rogue factor. Storm has never been a popular Modern deck in Colorado and players aren't that comfortable attacking it as a result.

Keep Moving Forward

Another week down, but my season lasts into September. The question for me next week is finding the confidence in my decks so I'm not still choosing them right before the tournament start. And getting more practice in. Still, the season grinds on, and I will too next week.

Daily Stock Watch – Vengevine

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello, readers and welcome to this week's first edition of the Daily Stock Watch! In the aftermath of Pro Tour 25th, we've come to realize a few things about Modern: one, that Hollow One and Humans still remain as top tier deck choices for pros; two, that control never died as exemplified by the inclusion of two UW Control decks in the top 8; and that three, we could still be surprised even on an event this big by a new deck that could flip the world upside down. Our card for the day is probably something that you already know by now, but might not be aware that it has already spiked big time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vengevine

This card has always been crazy good even though back in the day when Fauna Shaman was its buddy. It was so good that it actually led to Survival of the Fittest getting banned and WotC had to make a Grand Prix version of it. A 4/3 beater with haste that could recur over and over and over for as long as you're casting creatures is just plain sick, and the fact that you could have four of it in play at the same time when you have a nuts draw as early as turn two (we're talking Modern here!) is just unfair. Its power was in full display over the weekend as Jacob Nagro steered his BR Vengevine deck to the top eight of PT 25th's Modern portion with lots of fanfare.

BR Vengevine

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Gravecrawler
4 Greater Gargadon
3 Hangarback Walker
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Stitcher's Supplier
4 Vengevine
4 Walking Ballista

Instants and Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting

Other Spells

4 Bridge from Below

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Blood Crypt
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Mountain
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Bitterblossom
3 Ingot Chewer
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Lightning Axe
3 Thoughtseize

You might be wondering why Hollow One and Vengevine didn't much have success as a tag team, but the answer to that is a bit complicated. Although both of them have made a living out of Faithless Looting abuse, those two cards are better off in shells of their own and that was very much prominent based on their performance at the PT with Ben Hull's Hollow One topping the list. This doesn't hurt the stock of Vengevine financially, many thanks to Bridge from Below along with a the platoon of zombies, constructs, a naughty goblin, and a giant beast.

The hype was insane on Vengevine that it reached highs of $94.52 for the Rise of the Eldrazi version, while the WMCQ Foil almost peaked to $100. Some players would think that Vengevine was the sole reason why the deck is so good, only to realize later that it's actually Bridge from Below that's really causing a lot of powerful starts for it. In that case, why aren't we talking about the Bridge instead? The answer is pretty simple to that: you could break a deck using the vines without even having the shadow of the bridge in a list's 75. I'm expecting another brew in the coming days that might be built around our favorite green elemental along with Stitcher's Supplier. The BR Vengevine deck seems to lack an element that Hollow One already possessed, and it might be in another shell where it could really go off and reach tier one territory.

The Modern Pacesetters

These cards belong to archetypes of their own that command how a deck should be built around them. We're made to believe that Vengevine is currently good in a Bridge from Below deck but there will be new people who will try reviving their Hollowvine lists, or try out the Jund version of it. Whatever happens with brewing for it in the coming days would barely nudge the new standard that has been set for its pricing will stick until it gets reprinted in Standard (Guilds of Ravnica?) or becomes part of the next Masters set (probably a graveyard-recursion theme?) I'd say that you should go get your own playset only if you'll be playing with the deck but outside of that factor, I wouldn't be paying that much for a creature not named Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant or Snapcaster Mage. Proceed with caution if you'll be doing it for spec purposes.

At the moment, Vengevine is out of stock in major online shops such as Card Kingdom, StarCityGames, and ChannelFireball. There are still some vendors in TCGPlayer that has it for prices varying from $48.90 up to $95.00 (be wary of the language and card condition!) while WMCQ versions are there for $62.94 up to $99.99. I would be a seller at $90 of either version and will only be a buyer if it goes for less than $50. I would even be skeptic to get them at that price, to be honest.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation