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Proactive Control After GP Copenhagen

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One of the biggest questions to come out of GP Charlotte was the viability of Grixis Control. Although Patrick Chapin piloted his deck to a 9th place finish, there were no other Grixis Control representatives in the Top 32, and the deck itself made up just 1.9% of the Day 2 metagame. Chapin is also an excellent player in his own right, so it was hard to separate his skill from the deck he was piloting. Then came GP Copenhagen. Thiago Rodrigues may not have won with his own Grixis Control list, but his fifth place finish showed the deck was still a force to be reckoned with. But it was really the Copenhagen Day 2 metagame that removed any remaining doubt, with Grixis Control standing as the single most-played deck (Twin only beat it out as a supergroup). Grixis Control is here to stay in Modern, and with it comes a renewed focus on a certain kind of control philosophy: proactive control.

Remand Art

Proactive control is not new to Modern, but the recent success of Grixis Control has forced Modern players to reevaluate the importance of proactive strategies in our format. In this article, I discuss the differences between reactive and proactive control, arguing that proactive control is the way of the future in Modern. This approach, and the underlying reactive vs. proactive philosophy, will be helpful to both control mages who want to improve their deck, or to the average Modern player who wants to prepare for the months ahead.

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Historic Definitions of "Control"

In my GP Copenhagen retrospective yesterday, I talked a bit about this idea of reactive and proactive control. This generated some interesting questions in the comments, on forums, and via email, not to mention all the discussion around the issue not related to my article. This really is one of the enduring questions in Modern, which motivated me to explore the issue in greater depth today. And as with many of the "enduring question" articles, I want to start by defining some terms.

Before we can discuss the meanings of "reactive" and "proactive", we really need to begin with a definition of "control". It's particularly important here because that definition is where we first find this tension between reactive/proactive. Back in 2014, Reid Duke wrote a series of articles defining different constructed archetypes. In his article on "Control Decks", Duke described three of their characteristics:

  1. "Control decks are geared for the long game"
  2. "Control decks focus on shutting down the opponent"
  3. "[Control decks] win the game later, at their own convenience"

Dragonlord OjutaiThese definitions will ring true to most of us with constructed experience, especially those who played in the years before Modern (or played during many current Standard seasons). Control decks use countermagic, card draw, and removal to get to the late game. Then they win off some durable, efficient, but ultimately slow threat. This is the control archetype we remember from the days of Morphling and Psychatog, or even Dragonlord Ojuta from a more recent timeframe. But regardless of which old-school control we are looking at, we see the same theme through all the cards and in Duke's definition: "the long game". By its very nature, control is supposed to play for the marathon, not for the sprint. It doesn't try to win until the opponent is completely locked out of the game, and most of its cards are dedicated to establishing that sense of security. Moreover, its win conditions are at their best the longer the game goes. Playing Psychatog in turn 3 is a sure way to get the Atog killed. But play it on turn 12 after an Upheaval and with floating countermagic mana? That's the 30 year-old Scotch of control right there.

Reactive vs. Proactive Cards

It's this notion of the "long game" that creates the primary tension between reactive and proactive Mana Leakelements, as well as reactive and proactive control decks more generally. By its very nature, control seems geared around "reactive" elements. As I define them, reactive elements (and, by extension, reactive control decks) seek to shut down opposing threats either after they are played (e.g. Terminate or Supreme Verdict, as they are played (e.g. Cryptic Command or Mana Leak), or even before they are played (e.g. Inquisition of Kozilek or Thoughtseize). The key here is not the timing of the card: in some sense of the word, discard is indeed "proactive" because it deals with a threat before that threat is deployed. Rather, the key is that reactive elements seek to answer threats, regardless of timing. In that sense, reactive elements are very much in line with Duke's points about control decks: they are focused on eliminating threats over the course of the game, not generating threats of their own.

Experienced control players will also note a second category of reactive elements, that of reactive threats. These are cards which win the game through either card advantage or damage, but can only be played when an opponent's own threats (and their answers to your threats) have been neutralized. Cards in this category include Elspeth, Sun's Champion and Celestial Colonnade. Sphinx's Revelation is another example of such a card, even if it doesn't directly win the game. These cards are not reactive in the sense that they answer a threat or address a dangerous board state. Rather, they are reactive in that they can only be safely played after your opponent's threats have been answered. This returns to Duke's point about control mages winning the game "at their own convenience", i.e. when the coast is clear. If you animate a Colonnade on turn 6 against your Twin opponent, you deserve to lose that game. Instead, you probably wait until turn 11 when you have mana for both Dispel and Cryptic Command.

That brings us to proactive elements and threats. Proactive elements are cards that develop your own Tarmogoyfboard state or gameplan, often cast at sorcery speed. Serum Visions is one of Modern's best proactive elements, but we can also find examples in cards like Farseek and Noble Hierarch. Proactive threats are cards that either put pressure and/or presence on the board (e.g. Tarmogoyf) or win the game outright (e.g. Scapeshift). This first category doesn't always have to be creatures. Vedalken Shackles is proactive, even if Kolaghan's Command has rendered the card unplayable. Blood Moon or Suppression Field can also fall in this category, especially if played against a deck that loses on the spot to either card. But for the most part, proactive threats take the form of a creature or a combo-win. Goyf may have been the go-to proactive threat of 2014 and earlier, but Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Gurmag Angler have been hogging the spotlight in more recent months. As for combo, it's all Twin all the time (with the occasional Scapeshift, as GP Copenhagen showed).

The big difference between proactive and reactive cards, especially proactive and reactive threats, is speed. Reactive threats are slow: you cast them late in the game after you can protect them and after an opponent is out of resources. Even if the reactive threat isn't that expensive (e.g. Psychatog), it's still played as an expensive, late-game card. Proactive threats are generally faster: you either cast these early and protect them, or you cast them as soon as possible if your opponent leaves an opening. Reactive threats obviously fit with control's historic focus on the long game. Proactive threats do not. Indeed, proactive threats are often associated with decks that either don't look like control or just aren't control at all. For years, UR Twin was branded as a combo deck, with Temur and Grixis Twin as tempo. The same was true of Scapeshift. Tarmogoyf was, at its slowest, a BGx midrange card. At its fastest, it was the workhorse of Zoo. Meanwhile, control mages were stuck on Esper Gifts, UWR Control, Cruel Control, and other overwhelmingly reactive strategies. Proactive threats seemed philosophically incompatible with these latter decks, and many Modern mages have taken this to heart in the years since.

The New Face of Modern Control

When Modern players look back on the history of control, they will view Fate Reforged as a turning point for the format's control decks. Although it took a few months and events for them to catch on, the delve creatures are the best thing to happen to Modern control since Snapcaster Mage. Snapcaster might still be the best card in control, and probably the best card in Modern, but without his delving friends, he wouldn't have viable control shells to empower. Here's Thiago Rodrigues's 5th place list from Copenhagen, a prime example of how control will look as Modern evolves:

Grixis Control, by Thiago Rodrigues (GP Copenhagen 2015, 5th place)

Creatures

2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Gurmag Angler

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Instants

1 Dispel
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Thought Scour
2 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak
2 Remand
4 Terminate
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Electrolyze
3 Cryptic Command

Lands

2 Creeping Tar Pit
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Sulfur Falls
2 Steam Vents
2 Watery Grave
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Blood Crypt

Sideboard

2 Dispel
4 Fulminator Mage
1 Spellskite
1 Damnation
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Negate
1 Engineered Explosives

Rodrigues is by no means the first player to insert proactive threats into a predominantly reactive control shell. He's not even the first Grixis Control player to do it. But he was the highest-finishing Grixis Control player at Copenhagen, and it is Copenhagen more than any other event in the past few months that is going to put this proactive control on the map. As I mentioned in the article's opening, Grixis Control had a commanding 7.6% metagame share at the GP, a huge jump from Charlotte where it had a paltry 1.9%. This success is likely to incentivize more players to try out the lists and innovate their own, and we should expect to see lots of Grixis Control in the future.

Of course, the success of the archetype doesn't necessarily speak to those underlying tensions between proactive threats like Tasigur/Angler and a shell that is supposed to be reactive. Is it even fair to call this deck "Grixis Control" and not something like "Grixis Midrange" or "Grixis Tempo"? How can this deck be considered "control" when it's dropping a turn 2 Tasigur? Isn't that playline just too fast for a deck that is supposed to be playing "the long game"? These are all important questions to address, and common questions many control mages will ask. I want to start with the most important of the group: addressing whether or not this is actually a control deck. To do that, we need to return to our original definition of control that we borrowed from Duke's article.

Here are those initial three definitions again, this time applied to the Grixis Control list. With the exception of a single, bolded word in point #3, the definitions are unchanged. I also give a brief comment on how each definition is relevant to Grixis Control itself.

  • "Control decks are geared for the long game"
    Cryptic CommandFor many players, the key term in this definition is "long game". But that's actually not the most important term for me. That honor belongs to "geared", which suggests the option to go to the long game, but not necessarily the need to go to the long game. If a game does go long, Grixis Control is totally fine. It has both Commands along with Snapcaster to generate incredible value and card advantage, as well as more than enough answers to address all of an opponent's threats as they are played. But that doesn't mean Grixis Control is slavishly committed to that long game. It just has the tools to go long if needed. That should also be considered true of any Modern control deck, not just Grixis.
  • "Control decks focus on shutting down the opponent"
    Kolaghans CommandGrixis Control has five proactive threats (Tasigur/Angler) and two more reactive ones (Tar-Pit) to win the game. Compare that to the 22 ways it has of shutting down an opponent, which is actually at least 26 ways once you count in Snapcaster recursion (and more again when you consider Kolaghan's Command recursion of those Snapcasters). Just because Grixis Control players add in a handful of proactive threats, this doesn't mean the focus has shifted away from shutting down the opponent. Indeed, the overwhelming majority of cards in the deck couldn't be more focused on shutting down the opponent! Between countermagic, removal, bounce, and general board control, this deck is totally packed with shutdown mechanisms. The addition of five proactive threats doesn't detract from that focus: they are just supplements.
  • "[Control decks] can win the game later, at their own convenience"
    Gurmag AnglerThis is the only definition I want to modify from Duke's original article. It's not that Grixis Control, or Modern control more generally, wins the game later. It's that it can win the game later if it needs to. In some sense, this follows directly from the first point about how control decks are "geared" for the late game. Being geared for the late game doesn't need to mean helplessness in the early game, or an inability to close out the game before turn 13. It just means that this deck doesn't automatically lose once you get past turn 6. Grixis Control is able to keep that option open while still maintaining a core strategy of late game gearing and the more reactive, answer-every-threat focus. It would be a different story if the proactive threats were themselves preventing you from shutting down opposing threats. But Tasigur and Angler are cheap enough that they avoid this issue: you can easily drop one of them with mana up to shutdown a threat next turn. That is the essence of control, and both Tasigur and Angler play into that nicely.

It's this third point which transitions us to the importance of proactive threats in the predominantly reactive shell. When you are stuck with purely reactive threats and elements, it's basically impossible to have the option of winning before the late game. But if you can add those threats while preserving your other elements, the only thing you are doing is increasing your range. You aren't actually compromising the core values of your deck. Moreover, the proactive threats are actually a form of answer in their own right! A giant 5/5 body on the board is effective removal for all sorts of small creatures. At worst, it's a multi-turn Fog that buys the control player time. At best, even if not in the red zone itself, it's a multi-turn removal spell that either kills multiple creatures or eats other removal spells and mana. To some extent, you want to be careful with your proactive threats and how they interact with removal. Control gains virtual card advantage in blanking opposing removal, and every body you add reduces that gain. But because Angler and Tasigur are already blanking so many spells (Decay, Bolt, Kolaghan's, Electrolyze, etc.), they don't really suffer from this drawback.

Why Reactive At All?

Before I wrap up, I want to address a question I have heard about Modern control decks. Many authors, myself included, have talked about Modern being a proactive format. It rewards proactive plays, cards, and decks: this is not a format where you want to durdle around and wait for your opponent to punch through your defenses. Moreover, Modern is a format where threats are often better than answers. We lack Legacy's catchall powerhouses like Force of Will and Wasteland, instead relying on answers that can feel relatively narrow in metagames clogged with diverse threats. If proactive threats are the way to go, then why bother with reactive elements at all? Why not just go pure proactive and leave control in the past?

Snapcaster MageThere are two reasons we shouldn't completely abandon reactive elements in favor of purely proactive strategies. The first is the, oftentimes ignored, power of our reactive cards. Snapcaster, Cryptic, Kolaghan's, Terminate, Remand: these are some of the most powerful cards in Modern, even if they don't have quite the same catchall strength as similar police cards in Legacy. But when paired with bullets like Dispel and Spell Snare, these reactive answers can completely take over a game and shut down an opponent (which is the essence of control). The key is in pairing the strongest control spells in the format (other examples include Verdict, Damnation, Clique, etc.) with some of the narrower ones to compensate for holes.

This leads us to the second reason for the continued relevance of reactive elements: Modern's diverse metagame. If you commit yourself to a purely reactive or linear plan, you are gambling that a) you are faster and more focused than your opponents, b) you are more resilient than your opponents, and c) your opponents are unprepared for you. If your gamble pays off then hey, welcome to your new Amulet Bloom overlords in the Top 8! But when that gamble is miscalculated, or you just run into bad matchup luck, you can easily flop out of the tournament before Day 1 is even over. The catchall, reactive suite of cards like Snapcaster and the Commands give you a tremendous degree of versatility in all matchups, both those you expect (e.g. UR Twin, Affinity, Jund), and those you just happen to run into (e.g. Lantern Control, Death and Taxes, Living End). Only a proper control deck can leverage these reactive answers, ideally alongside their proactive gameplan.

Hopefully this article both drives you towards the reactive/proactive control mixes, and encourages you to brew some of your own. Whether with the delve creatures, Goyf, or even old-school fallbacks like Bitterblossom or Geist of Saint-Traft, you can easily combine proactive threats into your reactive gameplan to win games in Modern. This is likely to be the new face of control going forward, so expect to either play it or beat it in the months to come.

Insider: Foiled From the Start

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I used to avoid foil cards like the plague, but I’ve since learned better. One big reason is that I don’t actually enjoy playing with them in my tournament decks. They are thicker than other cards and have a tendency to warp when they get played, which often leads to them feeling discernible or marked in my deck.

I’m pretty picky about the cards I actually play with (art, edition, etc.) and foils just are not my thing. However, I’m in the minority and the majority of players actually enjoy playing with and collecting foils for their decks. Collecting is a big part of playing Magic. People seek out unique or premium versions of the cards they like as a way of personalizing their decks.

Since I didn’t really care about foil cards for my decks I have traditionally tended to write them off as something that I simply wasn’t interested in. There is already kind of a consensus opinion that trading for and collecting "Standard staple" foils tends to be a pretty bad EV play because they tank in value really hard when they rotate out.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for Thragtusk

When these cards were in Standard, premium copies were really, really pricey but since they rotated and are not major players in eternal formats their value has really flatlined.

The thing is that the actual non-foil versions of this type of card also plummeted in similar fashion. It isn’t really a function of Standard foils being bad investments but rather Standard cards that don’t translate to something else after rotation. It really has very little to do with foils being specifically bad and much more to do with bad cards being bad.

Keep in mind that the conversation today is based specifically on unknown commodity foils from new sets and not about already established high-end foils like Tarmogoyf. I will be discussing some trends I've discovered (admittedly through experience and mostly by accident) that have led me to turning a nice profit on new foils without even intending to.

Buying In Early By Accident

I’ve taken a much larger interest in foil cards in the past year or so purely by coincidence.

I have a pet format that I really enjoy playing called The Danger Room. Basically, it's kind of like a cube except you big-deck-battle with it instead of drafting it. I put a lot of thought into the cards that I include in my stack (like all good cube builders do!) and I eventually decided to start foiling it out three or four years ago.

For the most part my stack isn’t like super expensive cards or anything (or so I thought at the time) and the overall power level of the cards in my stack was slated for cards that would be in a very good draft deck. No Umezawa's Jitte or Pack Rat type stuff that wins the game all by itself.

So, I started picking up cool foils that I liked to play with and whenever a new set would come out. One thing that I noticed over the course of several sets was that the foils I was buying were really hitting as speculation targets despite the fact that I was just buying them to have and not as investments.

Here are the foils that I added to my Danger Room from Dragons of Tarkir: Atarka's Command, Collected Company, Deathmist Raptor, Den Protector, Dragon Hunter, Dromoka's Command, Hidden Dragonslayer, Kolaghan's Command, Roast, Stratus Dancer and Zurgo Bellstriker.

Here are the foils that I added to my stack from Fate Reforged: Ethereal Ambush, Flamewake Phoenix, Gurmag Angler, Neutralizing Blast, Soulfire Grand Master, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Valorous Stance, Whisperwood Elemental and Wild Slash.

And lastly, Khans of Tarkir: Abzan Charm, Ashcloud Phoenix, Become Immense, Bloodsoaked Champion, Crackling Doom, End Hostilities, Grim Haruspex, Hooded Hydra, Hooting Mandrills, Hordeling Outburst, Icefeather Aven, Jeskai Charm, Mantis Rider, Mardu Charm, Monastery Swiftspear, Murderous Cut, Ponyback Brigade, Savage Knuckleblade, Seeker of the Way, Sidisi, Brood Tyrant, Siege Rhino, Sultai Charm, Temur Ascendancy, Temur Charm and Utter End.

As you can see I’ve picked up quite a few foils for my stack over the past year but if you consider the starting foil prices on these cards I’ve done quite well as an investment. As a rough estimate I’m probably up about 30% in value overall which is pretty impressive when you consider that I wasn’t actually doing this as an investment!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulfire Grand Master
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashcloud Phoenix

For instance, I’ve lost money on a few cards like Soulfire Grand Master and Ashcloud Phoenix which were overhyped at the start and have since gone down in value. However, when I bought these it was more of a YOLO moment where I knew I was going to lose on the deal in the long term--but simply wanted the card to play with. I would never look at unproven, high-out-of-the-gate-priced mythics as good speculation targets unless I suspected that it was going to be a format-dominating card.

One of the interesting things that I’ve noticed from buying foils for my Danger Room stack is that unless a card is specifically hyped as a "the next big thing," places tend to hedge and price foil versions conservatively from the start. One thing that is interesting with Magic sets the past year or so is that Wizards has really made an effort to have lots of different things all be good at the same time.

Understanding Value in the Context of the Metagame

The current Standard has a ton of different decks and the metagame shifts wildly from week to week depending upon what did well the previous weekend. This opens up the opportunity for lots of different cards to be good over the course of the Standard season.

Standard has always been about "decks" and synergy as opposed to eternal formats in which there are more strategies that just play all the best cards. Not to say that that Eternal decks don’t have synergy (because they obviously do) but there are typically so many good cards that already exist that we don’t need to dip into the dregs to fill out decks and sideboards.

My point is that in Standard there are lots of opportunities for cards to become the flavor of the month at some point and see a spike. Obviously, you’ve got to get out of these cards at the right time. Raptor and Protector are clearly not going to be lighting Modern on fire anytime soon but if I wanted to I could certainly sell these cards for a lot more than I bought them for right when the set came out.

Picking cards from this vantage point actually makes a lot of sense to me. It is kind of bizarre that I never thought of it on my own and only realized it by watching the same trends happen over and over when my Danger Room cards kept spiking. Once I noticed the trend, it made a ton of sense why the cards I want to put in my cube keep going up.

The reason is that when I look at a spoiler and decide which cards I want to add to my stack I’m primarily looking for cards that I think are "good," "fun," and "flexible" in some abstract sense. The fact of the matter is that I’m just looking for plain-old-good cards removed from any kind of metagame context.

When cards go up for preorder or you are trading for cards at the prerelease or release weekend there is no context to define how much play one card will see over another. The established decks take a while to assert themselves so it is almost impossible to say which cards are going to be awesome and which cards are going to be cards without a country.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hero of Bladehold

Hero of Bladehold is an insanely awesome Magic card that would have been great--except it failed the Jace test. Sometimes it can be really hard to predict a "sure thing" with regard to Standard cards and foils. Which is why I have never like speculating on the "it" card or hyped foils.

O.K. so I listed the cards from Khans block that I’ve picked up for my stack but now imagine that I’ve been doing that for like five years and have all the foils from all of those sets as well. Since this is for a cube I have the added bonus of "it doesn’t matter if it fails because I actually want it regardless." So, everything is always going to be a hold and not a sell.

The thing is that a lot of the random foils from these older sets have gotten noticeably more expensive. Seemingly random commons and uncommons that happen to be good in Modern or Legacy can command a very pricey tag.

It keeps happening to me that random cards in my stack spike up in value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Young Pyromancer

The first time I read the M14 Spoiler and saw Young Pyromancer I knew that it was one of those good cards I wanted for my cube. I had no idea that it would ultimately be a powerhouse eternal card, or that Treasure Cruise would push the card to the brink of insanity in Modern. I just knew that for the cost it had a potent and unique ability.

I got my foil Pyromancer for $5 in trade at the M2014 prerelease and have hung onto it ever since. New printings made the card much better but the thing is that there are certain kinds of cards (good, unique, interesting cards) that really lend themselves to benefiting from other good new printings. Good and great cards make other good and great cards better when played together.

Context is everything. There is no such thing as cards that are just good in a vacuum. Cards live and exist inside of decks and in concert with other cards.

Food for thought:

Grizzly Bears are a fine Magic card and I'm often pretty happy to play with them in my draft decks. They are certainly a more useful card than lots of other things that have been printed in the history of the game.

But what about this one:

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Well, our bears are not looking so great in comparison to the Skylasher here. The card has the exact same stats as the bear except it has multiple other useful abilities.

And then there's this fine gentleman:

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Tarmogoyf is similar to these cards in the sense that it is a creature that costs 1G. However, Tarmogoyf has a different ability that changes its base power and toughness depending upon the different card types present in all graveyards. If you asked anybody which of these three are the "best" card I don't think you'd be surprised to hear everybody agreeing that Goyf was king.

However, I will say that I had a couple nice GP finishes last year playing Naya Hexproof in Standard where my sideboard all-star was certainly Skylasher. Given that deck and the synergies that it had and the angles in which it needed help I can honestly say that I would not have played Tarmogoyf in that deck at all and certainly wouldn't have been willing to trade my Lashers for Goyfs given the option.

How good a card is in tournament play is directly related to how good it is in your deck. The general idea of "how good is a card" in the abstract is something different.

Putting It All Together

All great decks are built from good cards. Sure, Deceiver Exarch may not be the greatest value for a 3cc creature in the entire world but the synergy with Splinter Twin makes us all forget about his shortcomings. Sometimes seemingly mediocre cards can have synergies that make fantastic decks.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

I wouldn't play either of these cards in a draft deck! However, they create a synergy that is extremely powerful even by Legacy standards!

The key to the strategy I'm advocating for speculative buying of new set foils is to look for cards that appear generally "good," in the sense that there is a high likelihood it finds a synergistic home in Standard or beyond.

The key to identifying "good" cards and "good" foils right off the bat is to think about cards in terms of whether or not you would actually be interested in playing with them. Is it a card that you’d actually want in your deck or not?

The initial price of many of these foils will tend to be low because there is not yet context to establish if the cards will actually be played or not in the future. Using the line of thinking that I've put forward we are essentially jumping the gun and betting on the fact that the cards will find a home and thus will go up in value in the future.

We've all been around the block playing this Magic game and the best way to get ahead of the curve on investing is to trust your own gut and get a jump on everybody else by trusting your instincts. If you see the card Siege Rhino or Dig Through Time on the spoiler and they look completely insane to you why wait around to make sure it's good before investing in foil ones?

My rule of thumb is that if a foil version of a new card is less that $8-10 and I think the card is a genuinely good Magic card, I'm typically pretty happy to trade for it. Most times, even if it goes down it will be only slightly, if at all, and the trend seems to be that these are exactly the types of cards that go up.

Trade for the good cards before everybody is completely 100% certain where they will see play. Who would have guessed this strategy would be solid?

Insider: MTGO Market Report for June 24th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of June 22nd, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Jun25

The player base on MTGO is fickle. They are willing to move in and out of cards much more so than in paper. This leads to profitable price movements on many Modern cards that speculators can take advantage of. When demand for singles is still high, it's time for speculators to sell their cards in advance of the player base.

The recent uptrend in Modern prices will not continue indefinitely as players will tire of Modern or just need tix to enter the Magic Origins (ORI) release queues. Whatever the motivation, the lure of playing 'for free' will cause players to sell their cards to fund further MTGO play. Be sure to get out in front of this tendency and sell down Modern cards that have moved up in price over the past two months.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Check out the price of the top two mythic rares from RTR. Sphinx's Revelation is the most expensive, which is no surprise. This card was a pillar of Standard while it was legal in that format so the price memory alone points to a high price. It's also playable in Modern though base blue-white decks are at an ebb right now. Sphinx's Revelation has advanced from under 10 tix to just under 20 tix, nearly doubling up since rotating out of Standard.

Next up is Jace, Architect of Thought, which has a similar story, though with an overall smaller impact on Standard. Looking at the price history, this version of Jace has advanced from about 3 tix to 15 tix, quintupling since it rotated out of Standard.

On the other side of the ledger, there's Isperia, Supreme Judge which has drifted below 1 tix. As well, there are a bunch of RTR mythics that have basically had flat prices since rotating.

The takeaway is that Modern-playable mythic rares from large sets should be the first target, and then a selection of the rest of the junk mythic rares can also be purchased. Trying to predict exactly which card will see the biggest percentage gain is not easy. In the case of RTR, it's a surprise in hindsight to see a fringe Modern-playable planeswalker that also had a duel deck printing as the top pick.

The lone card to pay attention to in DGM continues to be Voice of Resurgence--and the price continues to soften, with copies available for under 25 tix. If this card got down to 16 to 17 tix sometime over the next six months, it would be a snap buy. It has hit this level twice before; first after rotating out of Standard, and then with the banning of Birthing Pod.

With a clear floor established for when this card is being heavily sold, setting our sights slightly higher is necessary as that type of selling is unlikely to crop up again. 18 tix is a reasonable price target on the downside but with the current high level of interest in Modern, the Fall will be the next window where it might reach that price.

Theros Block & M15

These sets have seen their prices stabilize in recent weeks, running counter to the downward trend observed in paper. Look for each of these sets to resume the downward trend in the coming weeks. If there are still Standard-playable cards in these sets in your portfolio, take a moment to prune these positions during this temporary bounce.

Leading this counter-trend is Keranos, God of Storm which was at 10 tix just four weeks ago and now is just below its all time peak of 19 tix. The run up in this card has been impressive as it has been surprising. The rising interest in Modern Constructed is driving the demand here. If you are holding this card, selling into this strength is prudent. Demand is getting closer to a near-term peak as some Modern staples have fallen back in price in the past two weeks.

Courser of Kruphix from BNG is at an all-time low at sub 5 tix currently. The lure of low prices can be tempting for speculators, but buying this card right now would ignore the overall price trend and the three months left before rotation.

This card has demonstrated some utility in Modern in the past but it has fallen out of favor in that format more recently. It's worth keeping an eye on, but speculators should wait until the release of Battle for Zendikar before establishing a position in this card.

Tarkir Block

Drafting of the Tarkir block sets continues, which means prices still reflect a steady stream of supply coming onto the market, even though both DTK and FRF were up sharply in the past week. Once ORI is released, the supply will slow down and prices will start to seek a higher equilibrium. The recent price strength in these two sets should signal to speculators for a pause in purchases; with multiple weeks of drafting of DDF still ahead, downside risk is higher this week than it has been in a month.

In the case of last week's recommendation, Monastery Mentor has bumped up to over 10 tix. Prices in the 8 to 10 tix range are attractive entry points relative to the long-term potential of this card. Once the dust settles in the market after the release of ORI, prices in the 10 to 12 tix range for this card are expected heading into September.

Elsewhere, KTK boosters have crested back over 2 tix this week. With no fresh boosters coming onto the market from Constructed Daily Events, drafting has steadily whittled down the excess supply and prices have been inching upwards. There will be a lull in this trend during and after the release of Magic Origins as drafters move most of their attention to triple ORI drafting. In the second half of August and heading into September, drafters will drift away from ORI and pick up Tarkir block drafting again, at which point KTK boosters will peak.

The spec on KTK boosters, recommended in this column, are on track for the expected gain of 0.5 tix or higher by September. Speculators holding these boosters should look to the end of summer to whittle down their stock, just before the release of Battle for Zendikar relegates every other draft format to the back burner.

Modern

After GP Charlotte a week and a half ago, GP Copenhagen was held this past weekend featuring Modern Constructed. As a proof of the well-balanced format that Modern is, the Top 8 decks of GP Copenhagen were totally different from those of GP Charlotte, with the exception of a U/R Twin deck at GP Charlotte and a Grixis Twin deck at GP Copenhagen. Beyond that, no other archetype appeared in both top 8s, and a total of 14 different decks were seen between the top 8s of the two events.

GP Copenhagen was notably marked by the presence of two slightly different Merfolk builds among the top finishers. Knocinki’s Fish version finally prevailed, a first time for Merfolk in Modern at that level of competition. An unexpected Mono-White Death and Taxes made its way to the top 8 alongside a Scapeshift deck, an archetype rarely seen these days. Of note from the top 8, Carvalho’s Jund was not running Dark Confidant. Grixis Control, Delver and Twin decks completed the top 8.

The next eight decks from the Top 16 included seven different archetypes where only an Abzan Company deck was found twice. Jacob Wilson piloted a Goryo's Vengeance deck similar to those seen at GP Charlotte to an 11th place finish, confirming the potential of this new version of the deck which features Nourishing Shoal. Lastly, a Living End deck finished 16th, an archetype that hasn't made a splash in a while.

The popularity of the Amulet Bloom deck seems in decline and the deck hasn't shown consistent results since Chris Van Meter's performance three weeks ago during the SCG Invitational. Consequently key cards of the deck are losing ground, namely Azusa, Lost but Seeking,  Summoner's Pact and Amulet of Vigor.

This week speculators who were holding some of the Merfolk cards such as Master of the Pearl Trident, Wanderwine Hub, Silvergill Adept and Merrow Reejerey should strongly consider selling these cards this week. Merfolk is a perennial sub tier-1 Modern deck, so any price increase tied to high level event results should be sold into as these prices won’t sustain themselves.

Results from MTGO Daily Events can also trigger price hikes. This past Saturday, MTGO user Spokes posted a 4-0 record with a blue-white deck that could be considered a descendant of the Eggs deck. Despite a very limited popularity, cards such as Open the Vault, Reshape, Krark-Clan Ironworks and Faith's Reward have seen their price multiplied by four or five in about a month.

Modern Masters 2015 drafts will run for two more weeks from today. Prices are stable on average, but several Modern staples reprinted in MM2 have continued their decline in the past two weeks. With the Modern Festival debuting today on MTGO, speculators should strongly consider completing their portfolio this week with any Modern staples from MM2. Virtually all Modern-playable cards from MM2 represent a good buying opportunity at this point. Some MM2 mythics have fallen below a 2-Tix value, which is an extremely low price. The original prints of these cards were once over 15 Tix and those cards certainly represent very safe investments with tremendous upside with a mid- to long-term outlook.

Legacy & Vintage

Nothing really changed in the Vintage and Legacy landscape. Legacy staples such as Force of Will, the dual lands and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are flat or slightly declining on average.

On the buy low side of things, Infernal Tutor recently declined to 25 tix before rebounding to 28 tix in the past few days. This card benefited from the release of VMA, rising sharply and hitting 50 Tix last January. What this card has going for it is being lightly printed on MTGO and appearing as a four-of in Legacy Storm decks. Without any reprint on the horizon this card is primed for further price increases if you maintain an outlook to the Legacy MOCS next November.

Pauper

The Pauper metagame hasn’t changed much this week, according to results reported at Mtggoldfish. Speculators eager to find good opportunities may have to search through the daily and weekly movers & shakers as well as checking the price of Pauper staples. While many prices are stable every week, there are positions worth considering.

Used as examples and at their lowest about ten days ago, Seat of the Synod and Chittering Rat have reversed the trend and are up by more than 100% this week.

Although reprinted in Vintage Masters, the Mercadian Masques version of Gush hasn’t moved much from the 1 tix mark for the past year and has been on the rise for the past month, if only slightly. Meanwhile the VMA version is priced closer to bulk. The price of these two versions will tend to converge over time.

Careful Study is a card that doesn’t really see play in Pauper and is rarely seen in Legacy. However, Odyssey cards are limited in quantity on MTGO due to being one of the earliest in print sets. When a common like Careful Study reaches a three-year low, speculators with smaller bankrolls should consider this speculative opportunity.

Finally, as a common printed only in Mirrodin, Molten Rain holds a lot of value for its Modern and, to a lesser extent, Pauper applications. With a price ceiling of 2.5 tix, Molten Rain is tanking a bit these days due to the decreasing appeal of the Amulet Bloom deck. If it reaches 1 tix, this card would definitely be a good pick up.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Modern

Hurkyl's Recall
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Leyline of Sanctity
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Remand
Dismember
Tezzeret the Seeker
Iona, Shield of Emeria
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
Wilt-Leaf Liege
Mutagenic Growth
Spellskite
Daybreak Coronet
Eye of Ugin

Legacy and Vintage

Infernal Tutor

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Sphinx's Revelation
Phantasmal Image
Leyline of the Void
Through the Breach
Blood Moon
Summoner's Pact
Glen Elendra Archmage
Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
Arid Mesa
Thrun, the Last Troll
Chalice of the Void

With the exception of Summoner's Pact, all these Modern positions have nicely increased in price over the past month and a half. Approaching the peak of demand for Modern, we think the period is close to ideal to sell these positions to secure profit.

With the decline of popularity of Amulet Bloom decks, the optimal window to sell the green pact was missed and it's probably headed to its previous floor around 1 tix with no short-term guarantee of rebound. We recommend selling it now to prevent further losses.

Trader Tools Dev Blog: No More “Sorcery Speed”

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Just a couple of quick updates today.

First of all, Editions and Lists had been loading really slowly.  We spent some time looking into the architecture that processes List & Editions prices, and found a few places we could make some serious performance tweaks.   After making those adjustments, I think its safe to say that your lists will load at least 5 times faster, maybe even more.  Trader Tools was previously choking on lists over a few thousand cards, but with these performance enhancements, larger lists should be accommodated without any trouble.


Second, a few users reported that the multi-edition search page could be easier to navigate, especially on smaller screens.  I can confirm, after using it on my Note 4, that they are correct.  So, we built a new one.  You can be the judge as to whether you prefer one or the other, but let us know either way.

Now the list of editions are sortable and filterable.  You can filter by year or name to easily find the sets you want to see.

magic the gathering set prices

 

Learning From Four GP Copenhagen Decks

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I didn't get to tune in to GP Copenhagen this weekend, but from what I've seen of the Day 2 metagame, the Top 8/Top 16, and the archived coverage, it was summer Modern at its finest.  Last weekend, we were treated to GP Charlotte with Ad Nauseam in the Top 8 and Elves winning the whole event. A week later and thousands of miles away, we get Master of the Pearl Trident battling Scapeshift for the gold. Can you believe that just four months ago we had a field that was over 18% Abzan? Modern continues to mature towards a diverse and cyclical metagame, and few tournaments exemplified this better than GP Copenhagen.

Master of the Pearl Trident art

In yesterday's article, I analyzed the GP Copenhagen Day 2 metagame, showing the event's diversity relative to previous Modern tournaments. Today, I want to look at a few decks from the weekend and see what those decks teach us about Modern and the Grand Prix itself. Although it's important to analyze quantitative datasets, as in yesterday's article, it's just as important to highlight case studies like the four individual decks in this article. These decks give us an in-depth, qualitative understanding of the format, playing off some of the broader data-driven themes I've talked about in previous metagame articles.

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#1: Suicide Shadow - There's Always Another Linear Deck

The first time I noticed Suicide Zoo/Suicide Shadow was in mid-February of this year while recording MTGO daily finishes. In the initial MTGS thread I created on it, I described the Death's Shadow/Become Immense-powered strategy as "vicious", "greedy", and "suicidal". All of those things are still true today and GP Copenhagen proved if a deck is vicious, greedy, and suicidal enough, it can make it all the way to the Top 16. Here's Fabrizio Anteri's Suicide Shadow deck that he piloted to a 14th place finish at Copenhagen:

Suicide Shadow, by Fabrizio Anteri (GP Copenhagen 2015, 14th place)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Kird Ape
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Street Wraith

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
4 Gitaxian Probe

Instants

4 Become Immense
3 Temur Battle Rage
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Vines of Vastwood

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Windswept Heath
1 Stomping Ground
1 Godless Shrine
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Temple Garden

Sideboard

4 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Stone Silence
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Spellskite
2 Dismember

As a quick rundown on the deck, you are trying to stick 1-2 threats, preferably a Death's Shadow, and then send it into the red zone for lethal along with pump spells. Because Shadow gets biggest when your life total is low, the deck is packed with self-damaging spells to cantrip and see if the coast is clear (Probe), pump your creatures (Growth), and disrupt your opponent (Thoughtseize). As with most linear decks, the deck is deceptively complicated and often plays like a puzzle: play the right pieces at the right time and you are rewarded. Play them wrong and you are sure to lose to your own life-loss or your lack of meaningful interaction. Frank Karsten wrote a brief walkthrough of the deck back in early June, which you can check out for more details on the deck.

Temur Battle RageSuicide Shadow may not have won the event or even made Top 8, but it was still one of the most significant decks at GP Copenhagen. Why? Because while everyone else was packing Blood Moon for Amulet Bloom, Rest in Peace for Grishoalbrand, and Fulminator Mage for Tron, Anteri was mauling people with 15/15 battle-raging Shadows. It would have been impossible, and quite frankly, paranoid and stupid, to prepare for his deck. In that sense, Suicide Shadow underscores one of the most important lessons of Modern: there is always another linear deck out there. These outliers may not constitute a large metagame share and you may not even run into one of then at your next tournament (especially a big one). But rest assured that somewhere on the floor there's a guy playing his trusty tier 1 deck and getting flattened by Temur Battle Rage.

Once you understand the omnipresence of linear decks, there are a few steps you need to take to not be a victim of Become Immense or Hive Mind. The most important step is deck knowledge. Being able to identify a deck in the first two turns of the game is critical to succeeding in Modern. If your opponent goes turn one Bauble, fetchland, Probe, Nacatl, don't be that stooge to crack fetchland into shockland and play Inquisition of Kozilek. And if you do, don't get upset about an 80-20 matchup format when the Immense Nacatl swings for 9+ damage. Of course, sometimes knowledge isn't enough, which brings us to the second step you should take to insulate yourself against linear decks: play good answers. On the one hand, this isn't Legacy where we have access to some true catch-all police like Force of Will and Wasteland. On the other hand, we can't sell our own police cards short. Merfolk was extremely successful at GP Copenhagen with Spreading Seas and Vapor Snag. The same goes for Grixis decks with Cryptic Command and Kolaghan's Command. And sometimes, you need to get creative: Chord of Calling into Magus of the Moon is one of the least fair plays you can do in a fair deck (following Snapcaster into Kolagahan's). Leverage these versatile answers and play decks that can support them and you will be well-positioned against that next linear deck no one else expected.

#2: Scapeshift - Blue Control Must Be Proactive

Modern is a format full of complainers. To some extent, Magic is a game full of complainers, but as someone who has been playing Modern since the beginning, I feel this is truer of Modern than most other formats. One of the most common complaints, apart from the usual ban-mania (#banarashincleric), is that Modern lacks "true" control decks, especially blue ones. It's a shame that BGx decks get Abrupt Decay when blue control seems stuck on Mana Leak. But folks, they don't call our format "Modern" for nothing: blue-based control (like practically every other aspect of Magic) has modernized and evolved since the days where Dark Ritual into Hypnotic Specter was gamebreaking. If you had any doubts, here's Steve Hatto's 2nd place Scapeshift list from GP Copenhagen:

Scapeshift, by Steve Hatto (GP Copenhagen 2015, 2nd place)

Instants

4 Scapeshift
4 Cryptic Command
4 Remand
1 Repeal
2 Electrolyze
2 Izzet Charm
2 Peer Through Depths

Sorceries

1 Farseek
1 Pyroclasm
4 Search for Tomorrow

Creatures

4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
2 Snapcaster Mage

Lands

1 Scalding Tarn
1 Flooded Grove
2 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
2 Breeding Pool
2 Mountain
2 Forest
3 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Stomping Ground
4 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Engineered Explosives
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Back to Nature
1 Inferno Titan
1 Creeping Corrosion
1 Counterflux
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Negate
2 Thragtusk
3 Obstinate Baloth

Blue-based control tends to take three different forms in Modern. The first are the "true", traditional, draw-go style decks that we remember from the days of Stasis. The most common example of this in Modern is UWR Control which, as anyone who follows our Top Decks metagame page will know, isn't exactly the most successful deck in the format (the deck currently has a 1.1% metagame share). It's fine to have reactive elements in Modern but, as basically every GP in the past 6 months has attested, you can't be completely reactive. You need to be doing something in Modern, which is why we don't see decks like UWR Control in event Top 8s or Top 16s, but we do see decks like Hatto's, Gerard Fabiano's Sultai Control, or Patrick Chapin's Grixis Control. A turn four Restoration Angel just isn't very threatening.

Splinter TwinThat brings us right to the other two forms of Modern blue control: combo-control and clock-control. UR Twin and Scapeshift are the archetypical examples of the combo-control deck, with the Gurmag Angler-powered Grixis Control an example of the clock-oriented control strategies (you can also think of these as a protect-the-queen approach to control). In both cases, you are combining the reactive elements of blue control, typically countermagic and card draw, with the proactive elements of a quick combo win. Or, in the case of clock-control, a durable, hard-hitting threat. Those reactive elements allow you to stop an opponent from advancing their own gameplans. Meanwhile, the proactive ones force them to respect yours and let you win the game before they punch through your defenses. The results of such archetypes speak for themselves, with decks like Twin and Grixis Control tearing up the June metagame and the overly reactive ones like Blue Moon and UWR Control languishing in the depths of tier 2 or tier 3. Indeed, these purely reactive decks have a history of evolution towards proactive elements, as in Jeff Hoogland's 7th place Temur Moon from SCG Baltimore or Shaun McLaren's UWR Kiki Control.

Many of you are probably wondering why Scapeshift is teaching this lesson when a blue deck like Twin or Grixis Control seems a better fit. After all, Scapeshift is hardly the tier 1 monster it used to be, and its GP performance has been almost nonexistent in recent months. But that's exactly why Scapeshift's 2nd place finish at GP Copenhagen is so noteworthy. This deck was certainly not better-positioned than Twin, and yet it brought an experienced pilot to a Top 8 finish. To me, this speaks to the general power of reactive elements when combined with a proactive plan. Or, stated differently, Cryptic Command and Snapcaster Mage really are that good when paired with some kind of proactive element. Scapeshift suggests that it doesn't even matter what kind of proactive plan you incorporate. As long as you are doing something your opponents must respect, the strong reactive elements can do their work. Grixis Control and UR Twin remain the best representatives of this approach, but if Scapeshift can do it, it suggests a lot of other strategies can do it too. Moving past GP Copenhagen, I expect to see more blue-control players internalize these lessons and add proactive elements to their control gameplan.

#3: Merfolk - Catchall Disruption is King

I like to think of Merfolk as a tier 2 version of Affinity. Like Affinity, the deck never really goes away and always has legs (fins?) even in the most inhospitable metagames. Also like Affinity, it's the sort of synergy-driven aggro deck that is totally extinct in Legacy and often feels extinct in Modern. It certainly felt that way in the days before Collected Company. But unlike Affinity, Merfolk was probably on the bottom of people's prediction lists for the winner of GP Copenhagen. And when the weekend was over, not only had Mefolk won the tournament but it had also sent two pilots to the Top 8. Here's Przemek Knocinski's GP Copenhagen-winning decklist:

Merfolk, by Przemek Knocinski (GP Copenhagen 2015, 1st place)

Creatures

4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Lord of Atlantis
3 Master of Waves
3 Merrow Reejerey
3 Tidebinder Mage
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Cursecatcher

Instants

2 Vapor Snag
3 Dismember

Artifacts

2 Relic of Progenitus
4 Æther Vial

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Lands

10 Island
3 Wanderwine Hub
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Cavern of Souls
4 Mutavault

Sideboard

1 Master of Waves
1 Tidebinder Mage
2 Hibernation
1 Dispel
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
2 Remand
3 Spell Pierce
4 Tectonic Edge

When I look at Merfolk's win at Copenhagen, I don't necessarily see the next big tier 1 aggro deck. Merfolk will always be a solid tier 2 player and may float into tier 1 every now and then, but this is no Burn or Affinity. Merfolk is a tiny bit too fair to compete with those decks on a regular basis, especially when the metagame shifts to punish fairer decks. So the takeaway here isn't to buy out all the foil Cursecatchers because Merfolk is the next hot thing, or even that Merfolk is the best-positioned aggro deck in Modern (that's probably Affinity). Instead, I want us to look at the Merfolk decklist and see why this particular strategy was so successful in a field that seemed to heavily favor Snapcaster decks, Bolt decks, linear decks, and really any deck that wasn't a bunch of mono-blue Lords.

CursecatcherAlthough the redundant Lords are undoubtedly important to Merfolk's success (and the main reason Merfolk remains the most viable tribal archetype in Modern), I don't think these are the primary causes for Knocinski's success. That honor belongs to his disruption. In a diverse format like Modern, versatile answers like Vapor Snag, Dismember, Relic of Progenitus, Spreading Seas, and the almighty Cursecatcher are invaluable. All of these cards serve two functions. First, each of those cards is highly relevant against at least two or three of the top-tier decks in the format. Snag and Dismember ruin Twin's day just as much as they screw with Jund and Abzan. Seas puts the hurt on not only Tron, but also Jund and Affinity. Relic messes with Company, Griselbrand, anyone using Snapcaster or delve, and dozens of random graveyard-based decks. Even if you can't predict your matchups, this kind of versatility keeps your answers relevant. The second reason these cards are so strong is that they both disrupt while also allowing Merfolk to advance its own gameplan. Blood Moon is great but it doesn't cantrip. Seas does. Terminate kills a creature, but Dismember does the same for just one mana. Overall, Merfolk's disruption is the perfect balance of versatile and efficient, which set it apart from other aggro decks at GP Copenhagen.

Looking past Copenhagen, Merfolk's success should empower other players to try out versatile, catchall disruption spells in other decks. Jordan Boisvert's Temur Delver build, as he's discussed in articles on this site, is very much in that lineage: Simic Charm is easily one of the most versatile spells in the format, especially for just two mana. We see similar innovation around Kolaghan's Command, an extremely versatile and efficient spell that we are only starting to abuse. Command could definitely find a home in Mardu or Rakdos midrange/aggro decks as players better understand its power. Another example of efficient catchall disruption is Flickerwisp, and it's no coincidence Hans Christian Ljungquist rode the Elemental to a Top 8 finish with his Mono White Death and Taxes build. I expect to see more decks like Merfolk, Death and Taxes, and Temur Delver as the summer progresses and players build around versatile answers to handle a diverse metagame.

#4: Grixis Delver - Just Add Angler/Tasigur

Grixis Delver was one of the coolest decks to come out of the recent Modern offseason. As I talked about in my Grixis Delver history article a few months back, the deck was grassroots development at its finest. Players from across the Modern community independently tested, piloted, and refined the strategy in a variety of different events, with minimal (if any) input from pro players. But despite my love for the deck, I also acknowledge it's probably the weakest of the three Grixis decks in Modern. Grixis Control is a real top-tier deck and Grixis Twin isn't far behind. Grixis Delver, however, still suffers today from many of the same problems that it did months ago, including a hideous Burn matchup and vulnerability to Bolt in a Bolt-packed metagame. Even so, Branco Neirynck piloted his Grixis Delver list to a Top 8 finish at the GP: his list is shown below.

Grixis Delver, by Branco Neirynck (GP Charlotte 2015, 7th place)

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
3 Young Pyromancer
3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Gurmag Angler

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Gitaxian Probe

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Spell Snare
1 Deprive
3 Terminate
2 Mana Leak
2 Remand
1 Izzet Charm
1 Kolaghan's Command
1 Electrolyze

Lands

2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Darkslick Shores
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Sulfur Falls
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt

Sideboard

1 Deprive
1 Kolaghan's Command
1 Magma Spray
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Dispel
1 Flashfreeze
1 Vandalblast
2 Izzet Staticaster
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Thoughtseize
2 Blood Moon
1 Negate

Grixis Delver's performance at GP Copenhagen reminds me a lot of Scapeshift's. In both cases, the deck itself probably wasn't optimal. But also in both those cases, there was an underlying strength which compensated for any weaknesses. For Scapeshift, this was the pairing of the reactive powerhouses of Command/Snapcaster alongside a proactive plan. For Grixis Delver, it's not the strength's of the deck's namesake creature, but rather that of his supporting team: Gurmag Angler and Tasigur, the Golden Fang. Delver might not be the best-positioned creature in Modern, but Tasigur and Angler are so strong that you can practically pair them with anything and get results.

TasigurTasigur (and Angler, to a somewhat lesser extent) fundamentally changed Modern. I'm not quite at the point where I want to call them better than Tarmogoyf, but they definitely fill roles that Goyf can't while still giving you the same basic body. Players always used to joke that you could just add Goyf to a deck to make it better, and although we saw a little bit of that in Yuusei Gotou's Goyfinity deck back in GP Kobe 2014, this never really caught on in Modern. Some decks certainly relied on the green monster, especially Zoo and BGx decks, but there were plenty of creature-based green decks that avoided Goyf entirely. But this is increasingly not the case with Tasigur and Angler. Modern is becoming packed with decks that are sticking either/both creature into their deck just for some added muscle. We are also seeing a lot of previously tier 3 decks shoot up to tier 2 or even tier 1 mostly due to the strength of the delve creatures.

As with Scapeshift, I do not think Grixis Delver's success speaks to the strength of Delver itself. I think it just underscores how strong Tasigur and Angler are in this metagame. Moving past GP Copenhagen, we should expect to see even more decks running these two creatures. We should also expect previously less competitive decks becoming more competitive with the addition of Tas/Angler, or at least using these cards to compensate for current weaknesses. For instance, Burn's metagame share has dropped precipitously in the past month, but perhaps Tasigur can revitalize the deck by giving it recursion and a permanent body on the field. More obscure decks also stand to benefit from this card. Something like UB Control or, more realistically, Sultai Control could gain prominence on the backs of Tasigur and Angler. If you are a deckbuilder, you should look to see if Tasigur and Angler can improve your gameplan. There will certainly be times where they do not fit with your strategy. Creature-heavy decks, or Company-based decks, don't have the basic synergies to enable quick delve. But for decks that do have those synergies (I'm rooting for UB Control!), Tasigur and Angler can give you newfound viability. As a player, this just means to expect lots of Tasigur and Angler in the coming months. Graveyard hate will become more relevant. So will removal that actually hits these cards (read: don't run more than 2-3 Decay, and even 3 is pushing it). If you are unprepared for this and think something like Bolt or Decay is the catchall answer it used to be, expect to get beaten hard by the Sultai delvers.

Modern After GP Copenhagen

With GP Singapore coming up this weekend and the Modern PPTQ season kicking off shortly thereafter, summer Modern is nowhere near over. As you head into your Modern events, whether online, at your local store, or on even bigger stages, it's important to keep in mind the lessons from GP Charlotte and GP Copenhagen. It's also important to combine these more qualitative takeaways with the hard, quantitative data underlying the metagames. This dual approach will ensure that you have all the tools you need to make informed deck and card decisions over the summer and get to the top. GP Charlotte and GP Copenhagen have ushered in an exciting era of Modern and I'm excited to see how GP Singapore will feed into these developments.

(Also, we updated our Top Decks page and the metagame sidebar to reflect the post-GP Copenhagen format!)

Tiny Tuesday- Vorel of the Hull Clade

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We've got a sweet one today. I've never been big into cards that double anything, but if the price of Doubling Season is any indication, there are plenty of players who are. Doubling season is one mana too expensive for Tiny Leaders, but Vorel of the Hull Clade allows us access to all kinds of doubling shenanigans from our command zone.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vorel of the Hull Clade

When I put decks together for this column, my goal is to try to produce something that could reasonably compete in the format. There are a lot of options for a Vorel deck that sounds sweet that I've ruled out for this reason, though are definitely worth exploring. You won't see Magistrate's Scepter or Sage of Hours in my list, but both are awesome options for Vorel decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Magistrate's Scepter

Instead, my list takes advantage of the evolve mechanic and a few choice creatures that otherwise place counters on themselves as a means to establish board presence early and to spiral out of control as the game progresses. This is my current list:

Tiny Vorel

creatures

1 Cloudfin Raptor
1 Experiment One
1 Gyre Sage
1 Renegade Krasis
1 Shambleshark
1 Chasm Skulker
1 Primordial Hydra
1 Genesis Hydra
1 Scute Mob
1 Vastwood Hydra
1 Aquastrand Spider
1 Vinelasher Kudzu
1 Zameck Guildmage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Lorescale Coatl
1 Plaxcaster Frogling
1 Kiora's Follower
1 Thrummingbird
1 Predator Ooze
1 Strangleroot Geist
1 Simic Guildmage

spells

1 Cyclonic Rift
1 Brainstorm
1 Counterspell
1 Lightning Greaves
1 Ponder
1 Preordain
1 Spell Snare
1 Mental Misstep
1 Mana Leak

lands

1 Tropical Island
1 Breeding Pool
1 Command Tower
1 Yavimaya Coast
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Polluted Delta
1 Flooded Strand
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Verdant Catacombs
1 Windswept Heath
1 Wasteland
2 Island
2 Forest
1 Llanowar Reborn
1 Hinterland Harbor
1 Flooded Grove

This deck really wishes that Umezawa's Jitte was legal, but you can't always get what you want. Vorel's four toughness comes in hand here for evolving right out of the gates, and unless your opponent can kill you quickly the combat step with this deck is a nightmare.

Insider: MTG Stock Watch 6/21/15

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Welcome back, fellow speculators! We have another installment of MTG Stock Watch (after the brief hiatus due to GP Charlotte).

Penny Picks

#1 Nourishing Shoal (+1961.4%) - This was the sleeper breakout card from GP Charlotte. It's played in a Tinfins style deck (i.e. discard and reanimate Griselbrand as fast as possible, draw a bunch of cards, win) as a way to gain a lot of life for free to continue drawing cards. The deck's new win condition is Borborygmos Enraged, who throws a bunch of lands at your face after they've all been drawn.

Another cool aspect of this card is that it's arcane, which allows you to splice Through the Breach at instant speed. The card that is most often pitched to the Nourishing Shoal is Worldspine Wurm (which happens to play well with Through the Breach as well).

shoal

#2 Lantern of Insight (+1730%) - Another breakout star from GP Charlotte. This card ended up in prison style deck that uses the information it provides as a way to control your opponent's draw. The deck runs cards like Codex Shredder and Pyxis of Pandemonium to mill the top card of the opponent's library and keep them locked out.

However, as you'd expect the key card to the deck is actually Ensnaring Bridge, as any prison style deck needs to keep itself alive before setting up it's lock and Ensnaring Bridge allows the Lantern player to keep themselves from getting killed via attacks. The deck also runs Sun Droplet as a clever solution to Burn decks as opposed to Leyline of Sanctity which could get stranded in the hand and allow creatures under the Bridge.

lantern

#3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader (C14) (+261.2%) - The winner of GP Charlotte was CoCo Elves, and Ezuri provides not only the win condition (Overrun on a stick) but also a way to protect your other pieces with the targeted regenerate ability. The original Scars of Mirrodin version also showed spectacular growth (+235.7%). We saw some of the other CoCo Elves pieces jump as well--namely Heritage Druid (+36.4%) and the next item on our list.

ezuri

#4 Nettle Sentinel (+242.6%) - Following in Ezuri's and Heritage Druid's footsteps, one of the key components of all Elves deck (Modern or Legacy) is Nettle Sentinel as its ability when paired with Heritage Druid allows for large amounts of mana very quickly. Its ability gets around summoning sickness (which is key to keeping the deck's velocity high).

sentinel

#5 Ancient Stirrings (+231%) - While Elves may have won GP Charlotte, the two decks going in with the biggest targets on their head were R/G Tron and Titan Bloom, both of which use Ancient Stirrings to help find key components. With only the singular printing in Rise of the Eldrazi, it's not a huge surprise to see a mini-tutor for one green breach the $3 mark (and almost the $4 mark).

stirrings

#6 Terminate (+176%) - Arguably the best creature removal spell in Modern (with the other possibility being Abrupt Decay), with the resurgence in modern Jund decks as well as the new Grixis Control decks popping up, it's no surprise to see this card finally get some love.

Having two different color requirements makes it difficult to splash (and typically requires running both colors as opposed to splashing one), but with the advent of Titan Bloom style decks, Modern has a strong need to kill creatures with a converted mana cost higher than three.

terminate

#7 Chromatic Star (+161.7%) - A key card in the R/G Tron lists, this one seems more like a buyout of the 10th Edition copies than an overall increase in demand--the regular Time Spiral (TSP) copies have only moved by about 25% in the same time period. However, it's important to keep an eye on this one as if we continue to see TSP copies move upward we may likely see the other R/G Tron pieces begin to grow.

star

#8 Chord of Calling (+46.9%) - I've been calling this one for a while now and it seemed like an obvious speculation target. With CoCo Elves's win at the GP and the fact that it's running a full four-of Chord of Calling, this once-$40 Modern staple is finally getting its upward push after the reprinting in M15 caused it to plummet.

While its old price tag seems very unlikely, this is easily a $15 card, thanks to its reprinting hailing from a core set, which overall lacked any strong card to drive demand to open packs.

chord

#9 Melira, Sylvok Outcast (+46.5%) - This one isn't all that surprising either. While the Junk CoCo lists prefer Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit to assist with their combos as it's more powerful on its own, Modern Infect decks are still very good and Melira is the best solution to them. Having a creature type of elf doesn't hurt either.

melira

#10 Sylvan Scrying (+27.6%) - Similar to Ancient Stirrings, a green tutor for lands is incredibly powerful in both Modern and EDH. With its last printing coming in 2007 it's no surprise that the number of copies in the supply is beginning to dwindle.

sylvan

#11 Darkness (+25%) - This Legends common (reprinted as a Timeshifted card in TSP) got some time on air during GP Charlotte via the commentators (despite not actually being cast). The relatively small number in the market meant that any sort of increase in demand would likely cause a decent rise.

As innocuous as Fog is, it's very unexpected coming from black. Also, the fact that Grixis strategies in many cases are tempoing the opponent out and winning at a low life total does mean that the ability to Fog and then Snapcaster Fog back may very well give the player the time needed to win.

darkness

Blue Chips

#1. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (+3.76%) - It seems that the continued strength of Miracles, as well as a resurgence in Deathblade decks, has made the best planeswalker of all time see a bit of a resurgence as well.

Granted he's typically kept to a two-of (or less), but there is no doubting the power level. It also helps that he provides an alternate win condition for decks that typically only have one way to win (a great example is when Sneak and Show decks bring him in against slower decks that may run Ensnaring Bridge).

jtms

#2 Dark Confidant (-3.68%) - Poor Bob continues his downward slope, despite seeing an uptick in Modern play thanks to the resurgence of Jund decks. I honestly do believe he'll reach his low point soon and should those Jund (and/or some Junk) decks begin to perform better, I think we'll see a return to greatness. Though it is unlikely he'll get all the way back to his old $75 days...at least as long as he keeps showing up in Modern Masters print runs.

bob

#3 Sneak Attack (-2.84%) - It does seem that the Sneak and Show players have for the most part swapped to Know and Tell decks (given Show and Tell itself is actually up 1.5%). However, this archetype will always be a strong choice for smaller Legacy events (as I found out running the Legacy challenges/side events at GP Charlotte) and giving your threat the first attack is also hugely important in any type of mirror. (I had a Lands player side in Emrakul during our game two; unfortunately for him, I dropped Omniscience and then cast my own Emrakul).

sneak

#4 Volcanic Island (-1.89%) - It looks like Volcanic's shot at passing Underground Sea is slowly diminishing as the death of U/R Delver decks (with the loss of Treasure Cruise) and the change from Sneak and Show to Know and Tell is reducing the need for Volcanics over all. The resurgence in RUG Delver strategies, however, should help offset this trend a bit moving forward.

volc

#5 Taiga (-1.88%) - As expected, Taiga still sits near the bottom of the dual land barrel. We can see it's now back to its pre-spike price. This emphasizes how the post-GP Richmond spike last year was due to an opportunistic short-term demand (when players realized they could convert some of their Modern staples that recently skyrocketed in price into something more stable).

taiga

Diverse Metagames and GP Copenhagen

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Wizards loves to talk about the openness and diversity of Modern. Both the GP Charlotte and GP Copenhagen Day 2 Metagame Breakdowns made claims like this about the format, stating that Modern was "packed with a diversity of archetypes" and that the breakdown "shows the immense diversity of the Modern format." Although we Modern players like to tout our format's diversity, sometimes the Day 2 metagames don't look as diverse as we want them to. GP Copenhagen was no exception to this, with a Day 2 field that was 15.8% "Splinter Twin" in its many variants, following a trend set the previous weekend at GP Charlotte where 17.7% of the Day 2 field was on some variant of Twin. Can fields like this really be labeled "diverse" or "open", even if some rogue Lantern of Insight, Death's Shadow, and Ad Nauseam decks are showing up?

Aether Vial art

The purpose of this article is to try and quantify the hazy definition of "format diversity", especially as it pertains to Grand Prix events. Drawing on data from GPs since October 2014, this article compares different Day 2 metagames across Modern's recent history. We can then situate GP Copenhagen and Charlotte in this broader picture, seeing if they are really as diverse as Wizards claims. As with any statistics article, I want to take us through not just the results but also the method of reaching those results and why that method makes sense. Hopefully, this approach will help you conduct similar analyses of your own.

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Quantifying Diversity

If you're like most Modern players, you've probably characterized a metagame as diverse, stagnant, warped, or some other similar adjective at one point in time. But it's often unclear what underlies these Treasure Cruisecharacterizations, and the terms often come off as arbitrary. Not even Wizards gets it right, especially without the benefit of hindsight. Here's a real gem from the Day 2 metagame of a recent Grand Prix, quoted from the mothership no less: "All in all it looks like Modern is still a very diverse format. And rumor has it one player is even running a Sliver deck today." Recognize the GP? That's from the paragon of diversity itself, GP Milan, a December 2014 event during the height of Treasure Cruise's and Birthing Pod's reign. Maybe Wizards was just being optimistic (and to some extent, the people who write those metagame articles aren't necessarily representing Wizards-wide views), but if that kind of misevaluation can happen during December 2014, it makes us question the reliability of terms like "diverse".

This gets at the importance of having consistent, transparent, and supported benchmarks for loaded terms like "diverse" and "warped". Ideally, these benchmarks would be quantitative markers that we could look to in any given metagame, e.g. if a deck is over N% of the event, then that tournament wasn't very diverse. But there are a few dangers here. First, we can't just choose a number that "seems" high, like 15% or 20%. This kind of gut-instinct approach gets us in the exact same trouble we were in when we used terms like "diverse" or "open": it's important to follow our intuition, but we need to balance that against being arbitrary. Another option for calculating the N% cutoff is using metagame averages. This is by far the most common approach I see in other metagame breakdowns, but it also has the chance to be the most misleading. A hypothetical Metagame 1 with five decks with 23%, 7%, 5%, 5%, and 2.5% shares is totally different from Metagame 2 with 11%, 10%, 8%, 7%, and 6.5% shares, even though both metagames have the same average deck prevalence of 8.5%. But it's clear that the first is completely warped around some monstrous 23% deck and the other is quite balanced.

Deathrite ShamanGiven these dangers, I don't want us to think of a firm N1% cutoff. Instead, I want us to look at a range of values in between a lower N% and upper N2% bound of a metagame. That is also to say, decks in this metagame tended to fall between N1% and N2% of the Day 2 metagame. How do we define these bounds? By using the variance between all the different deck metagame shares. As an example, let's look at the hypothetical metagames in the paragraph above. The hypothetical Metagame 1 has extremely high variance, with one deck at 23% and the next highest at 7%. Metagame 2, however, is much more clustered around the average 8.5% value. So instead of looking at single 8.5% cutoff, we construct a range of values around that average metagame share. For the more balanced Metagame 2, that would be a very reasonable 7% - 10%. For Metagame 2, it's a much wilder 2% - 15% range. Metagames with narrow ranges tend to be much more balanced, where many decks are viable and nothing is dragging the range up. But if we get a metagame with a large range, that suggests we have some problematic decks polarizing the metagame. A Deathrite Shaman kind of problematic.

With this method set up, we can now turn to all the GPs for the past few year and see how GP Copenhagen and GP Charlotte stack up.

Metagame Share Ranges and GP Day 2s

Let's apply this method to the Day 2s of these past tournaments. As some of you more statistically-inclined readers might recognize, this is another way of using the same confidence intervals that we use on the Top Decks page. The big difference today is that we are applying it to Grand Prix events and not to the general metagame. This distinction is important for three reasons. First, it means we are working with a population of decks and not a sample, which changes both the math itself and also our understanding of the numbers: there's no uncertainty in what made Day 2 because we know all the decks. Second, it means we have fewer decks and "cases" (i.e. our N) than in the overall metagame. This makes the numbers harder to extrapolate from, but also concentrates the population around the decks that matter most at GPs (the big dogs like Twin, Affinity, etc.). Finally, GP dynamics are very different from those at a local event, which means a lot for things like breakers, random bad matchups, etc. This is one reason I don't often perform this kind of analysis on Top 8 decks: the difference between 18th and 4th can often just be bad luck.

Using this approach, here are the metagame-share ranges for all GPs since July 2014. I have adjusted and edited Wizards' breakdowns to both separate archetypes and expand categories. Also note that I exclude Pro Tour Fate Reforged because Modern decks made Day 2 based only partially on their Modern performance. For each event, I give the prevalence low-end, the high-end, and then the +/- margin around the average.

GP Day 2 Metagame Share Confidence Intervals

EventMeta %
Low-end
Meta %
High-end
Meta %
Margin
1. GP Boston1.7%3.5%.9%
2. GP Madrid2.1%4.3%1.1%
3. GP MIlan2.4%6%1.8%
4. GP Omaha2.3%5.1%1.4%
5. GP Vancouver1.8%5.3%1.7%
6. GP Charlotte1.4%3.3%.9%
7. GP Copenhagen2.3%4%.8%

If we were to read this table for GP Boston, we would see that the middle range of deck prevalences is between 1.7% and 3.5%, with a range on that margin of .9%.

Birthing PodLooking over this table, we can quickly identify some themes. Day 2 metagames that were part of less balanced formats have much larger interval margins than the more balanced ones. GP Charlotte, which had dozens of strange decks and tier 2-3 contenders on Day 2, has one of the lowest margins at just .9%. By contrast, GP Milan, which took place at the height of the Pod/Cruise season, has a much higher margin at 1.8%. Higher margins suggest very polarized metagames with lots of upper-end outliers (e.g. Pod and Delver in December 2014). Lower margins suggest much more open metagames where lots of decks are clustered around a central range.

The second indicator I notice is in the relative sizes of the low-end and high-end ranges. The larger the high-end range, the more polarized that event was to the most-played decks. Here, we see GP Milan with its warpage towards Delver and Pod (high-end range of 6%), and GP Vancouver with tons of Abzan and Twin (high-end range of 5.3%). By contrast, more open metagames like GP Boston and GP Charlotte have much smaller high-end ranges, 3.5% and 3.3% respectively. We can also see this in the low-end ranges. When decks have really large low-end ranges, like GP Milan's 2.4%, this suggests there wasn't a lot of action happening at the bottom of Day 2. Compare this with GP Charlotte, with a low-end range of 1.4%: there were a ton of less-played decks bringing down the range.

GP Copenhagen and Day 2 Diversity

Based on all this, where does GP Copenhagen fall in the mix? Or GP Charlotte, another recent event that was lauded as one of Modern's most open fields in months?

Master of the Pearl TridentFrom the perspective of metagame-range margin, GP Copenhagen is actually the most diverse, followed closely by GP Charlotte. With a .8% and .9% margin respectively, these events were not at all polarized around a few decks. This is in stark contrast to something like GP Vancouver, where a huge subset of the field was on Abzan and that brought up the margin significantly. Looking back to Copenhagen and Charlotte, this quantitative assessment fits our qualitative understanding of the different events. Any event where you have Merfolk, Scapeshift, Ad Nauseam, Griselbrand, etc. as viable decks is a very diverse one. It's when you are stuck on the top-tier decks like Abzan, Jund, Affinity, etc. that the margin widens and the Day 2 starts to look much less diverse. So in that regard, both GP Copenhagen and GP Charlotte were quite successful.

What about the low-end ranges? Remember that low-end ranges are suggestive of how many less-common decks made Day 2, i.e. decks like Martyr Proc, Mill, Mono U Tron, etc. with only a handful of pilots (or even just 1). Surprising no one, GP Charlotte is the hands-down winner here, with a low-end of 1.4%. This perfectly reflects all the tier 3 or lower decks we saw at the event, and all the buzz around Charlotte as being so diverse. GP Copenhagen, however, has a much larger low-end margin at 2.3%. To me, this indicates a metagame where there weren't a lot of low-end outlier decks, with most people piloting more established builds in tier 1 or tier 2. The Day 2 metagame breakdown for Copenhagen also indicates this, with a lot of familiar faces and not a lot of decks with only 1-2 pilots. This points to GP Copenhagen being less diverse at the bottom than it otherwise could have been. We don't see the same crazy decks that we did at Charlotte, although there are some standouts here like Dredgevine and Death and Taxes.

The last indicator of Day 2 diversity is the high-end range value. This is again where we see the influence of polarizing decks: GP Vancouver and GP Milan have the largest high-end values because of their collected companywarpage around Abzan and Delver/Pod. GP Copenhagen and GP Charlotte, however, are much better. Again, Charlotte stands out as being the most diverse, with a really small high-end value compared with the rest of the GPs in the table (3.3%). Copenhagen is right behind with a 4% high-end value. Just looking over the events, these assessments make perfect sense. Neither GP was dominated by one particular deck-type, even if they did have archetypes that saw more play than others. In Copenhagen's case, this does lead to the question of Twin decks and their metagame role (more on this point in a second). But first, the Twin share isn't nearly as problematic as we have seen in past metagames, even if we do group them all. And second, the rest of the event was much more open around decks like Merfolk, Grixis Control, Naya Company, Tron, and a number of other strategies that haven't received a lot of press until recently.

Deck Supertypes and Next Steps

TwinWhen classifying decks, one of the most controversial decisions is whether or not to group decks by supertypes. Should we talk about Splinter Twin decks or keep them separate as UR Twin, Temur Twin, and Grixis Twin? Is BGx one archetype? Or is there something to be said for variation between Jund, Abzan, and BG Rock? These kinds of decisions obviously have a huge impact on how the math works in metagame analysis. A Day 2 might be 15% "Twin" decks, but that also might be split pretty evenly between Temur, Grixis, and UR Twin. Making matters worse, it's unclear how this factors into Wizards' assessments of format diversity. Did Kiki Pod's small share factor into the ultimate Birthing Pod ban? My guess is it didn't: Wizards probably would have been thrilled to not have Abzan/Melira Pod decks and just have Kiki Pod ones.

In this article, I split up all the supertypes into distinct decks, but I also want to re-run this analysis at the end of the month with supertypes instead. Although there are appreciable differences between individual decks within a supertype, this often suggests deck diversity more than it suggests card diversity. And even there, if all the decks are built around the card in the same way, it might not even suggest deck diversity at all! This gives us a good opportunity to re-run the analysis with a different frame after all the June GPs have wrapped up (Singapore is this weekend).

We'll be doing more GP Copenhagen review all week long, and this is a great starting point in situating Copenhagen in the broader Modern context. By many counts, GP Copenhagen looked like a diverse and open event, although it was certainly no GP Charlotte. Overall, Modern is looking healthier than it has in a long time, although there are still some lingering questions about how Twin-style decks might be shaping the metagame. We'll have to amass more data before we can answer that question, and I'm excited what the rest of the month holds for the Modern community.

Deck Overview: Modern Merfolk in Copenhagen

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Merfolk has never found itself at the forefront of Modern, though people have been playing it in some capacity since the format's inception. A copy of the deck broke the Top 8 of the SCG Invitational in Columbus and now two copies found their way to the Top 8 of Grand Prix Copenhagen, with Przemek Knocinski winning the whole tournament.

The deck hasn't changed a ton, with the general plan still being to jam a bunch of Relentless Rats... er... lords, but both players in the Copenhagen Top 8 backed up their fish package with some great metagame choices. Here are the lists:

Przemek Knocinski Merfolk

creatures

3 Master of Waves
3 Merrow Reejerey
3 Tidebinder Mage
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Cursecatcher

spells

2 Vapor Snag
3 Dismember
2 Relic of Progenitus
4 Aether Vial
4 Spreading Seas

lands

10 Island
3 Wanderwine Hub
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Cavern of Souls
4 Mutavault

sideboard

1 Master of Waves
1 Tidebinder Mage
2 Hibernation
1 Dispel
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
2 Remand
3 Spell Pierce
4 Tectonic Edge

Christoffer Larsen Merfolk

creatures

2 Spellskite
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Cosi's Trickster
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
2 Master of Waves

spells

4 Path to Exile
2 Unified Will
4 Aether Vial
4 Spreading Seas

lands

4 Ghost Quarter
4 Mutavault
2 Flooded Strand
4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Seachrome Coast
1 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island

sideboard

2 Spellskite
4 Stony Silence
1 Hibernation
2 Rest in Peace
2 Kataki, War's Wage
4 Swan Song

The creature base is still pretty weak relative to Modern, though the idea has always just been to do the same thing consistently. The Cosi's Trickster in Christoffer's list are cute, but it's unlikely that this slot had much to do with his success. Rather, it's the answers to Tarmogoyf, Tasigur, and non-basic lands present in both lists that allowed them to combat the popular strategies of the format while creatures with power did some attacking.

While both lists are clever, I would suggest that players working on Merfolk pull elements from both lists, rather than just copying one or the other. The huge elements here are Przemek's Relic of Progenitus and Christoffer's Ghost Quarter over Tectonic Edge. Relic helps you keep pace against delve and Snapcaster Mage spectacularly, and Ghost Quarter is immensely better at combating non-basic lands, as breaking up Tron before they can use the mana is clutch and you'll have better openings to use GQ against Amulet Bloom.

Insider: Artful Maneuvers – GenUril, the Miststalker

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If you’ve been following along since week one you should feel fairly comfortable doing basic alters with your cards. A few weeks ago we covered some of the more advanced theory behind painting, and this week we are going to put it all together on our first mythic alter. I've mentioned many times that there is money to be made in painting commanders, so enter Uril, the Miststalker.

This is a surprisingly tricky project, so feel free to view this as your “Color Theory Boss Battle”. We will be working primarily with a mixture that includes four different colors and using different shades of those colors. Creating these values can be time-consuming, disheartening and very tedious. You might find yourself constantly remixing colors just to touch up an area you thought was done.

This project, especially the beginning, will try your patience like never before. As with any other project though, once you gain an understanding of the particular hue in question, things will become easier.

You can achieve this by experimenting with your paints. The more you experiment, the more you will learn about how your paints work together. If you find yourself becoming increasingly frustrated by this project do not be afraid to walk away for a while. The paint and card will both still be there when you want to start again. That being said, let’s dive in!

Uril-001-203x300To begin with, take your white and black and mix up a light gray. Add an amount of blue to make a slate(ish) color. This will make a decent undercoat color to lay down on our borders.

From here you’ll want to add crimson to your mixture. You should come up with a sort of grayish purple. You can add blue and black to darken your color, or white and red to lighten it to match the mountains and mists surrounding our hero. As usual, I can't tell you exactly how much of either, as different print runs will produce different colors on the card--this is where the earlier-mentioned experimenting will pay off.

Use this color to match up with the mountains. Be sure that you are matching the mountains and not the mist that surrounds them. While this is drying, it may be a great time to take a break from color matching and just paint the bottom border black.uril-002-221x300

The fun thing about this card is that everything can be painted using different values of the same color. So as we move on to the sky, you can take your mixture and add varying amounts of white to match the gradient of the mists above and around the name box.

You will also find that some of the same colors can be used to create the mists around Uril’s legs. I’ve found that by using a dry brush, and moving from a darker color to a lighter, a convincing mist can be painted in a matter of minutes.

The tricky part is, once again, matching the original color of the mist. Instead of matching the color exactly, blend the original color with a similar one of your own creation. As long as the two colors are very close in appearance, the general effect of this can be very convincing.

Really? That’s it?

By now your card should look roughly like the second example. From here you have touch-up work left to do. By playing with your color mixture you can always find a better match for the colors. There are always details that can be added or improved as well.

Perhaps you want to add more mist around that peak on the left. Maybe you want to drag the mist further down the text box. Unless you have been commissioned to work on this card, than this is your artwork. Take this opportunity to own it. Until next time!uril-004-221x300

Visualizing Magic – May 2015 EU & US Modern Meta Breakdown

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The internet has a widespread Magic community, but there are still differences when it comes to tournaments and live play.  Today we start a journey through live tournaments and metagame breakdowns with an eye on the differences between Europe and America.

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Insider Alert: Glimmervoid, Arcbound Ravager & More

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Shoal Food: Grits and Goyfs at GP Charlotte

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GP Charlotte confirmed something I’ve felt about Modern all year: if you’re not casting Tarmogoyf, and you’re not casting Blood Moon, you’re losing. Obviously the rule has exceptions; many linear decks hope to “get under” Goyf and Moon decks by attacking from angles Modern’s interactive top dogs haven’t prepared for. But at the end of the day, interactive decks beat the linear decks they care about.

Goyf-Charlotte-Banner

Collected Company won GP Charlotte, but Pyroclasm and Anger of the Gods should check it in the future. Lantern Control and Griselbrand Reanimator also enjoyed some top-table spotlights, but these decks lose with a target on their heads. Linear decks continue to exist in Modern because, without the card velocity and consistency of Legacy staples like Ponder and Preordain, 15 cards isn’t enough to prepare for every all-in strategy. You can’t always dodge the deck you don’t want to face.

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Modern All-Stars

I led with a pretty bold claim, so I’ll take some time to elaborate. Tarmogoyf is dramatically better than every other creature in the format. Most of the removal he doesn’t dodge costs more than he does. Even Abrupt Decay and Terminate, which match him in converted mana cost, force opponents into multiple colors and subsequently soften them to Blood Moon. Path to Exile, the cheapest answer to a Goyf, turns the creature into card advantage. And countering one-half of a Bolt-Bolt response wins games on its own.

Blood MoonBlood Moon is a card people fear. They know about it, they fetch around it, and they still lose to it. You can leave Moon in the sideboard and still expect it to win you games as Grixis Twin opponents cut themselves off double red to keep from losing to the enchantment. How many cards in Modern win you games from the sideboard? Moon’s biggest strengths are its splashability and reliability – it fits into everything (Bolt pushes interactive decks into red anyway) and hoses just about every rogue deck in the format. Moon invalidates more strategies than any other card in Modern, forcing deckbuilders to construct efficient, straightforward manabases or to lose half their matches on turn 3.

Back to consistency, one of the game’s most powerful mechanics. Can you guess Modern’s third play-it-or-die card? Serum Visions give players a huge edge over the nonblue competition. For a tiny investment, it influences whether ensuing draws provide win conditions, interaction, combo pieces, or mana. It’s a one-mana Abundance, and why even draw-go decks like UWR Control don’t run it continues to bewilder me.

Baboon Bait

Monkey Grow was an easy choice for Charlotte. I’m very comfortable with the lines, which often surprise opponents inexperienced against the deck (read: all of them), and it plays Serum Visions, Tarmogoyf, and Blood Moon. Disrupting Shoal positions Grow better than any other deck against a field of diverse linear strategies, and I can practically “go linear” myself with explosive openings like Delver into Mandrills into Stubborn Denial.

Simic CharmI’ve tweaked the deck a little since the SCG IQ. Recent testing showed me the absurd relevance of Simic Charm, and I now consider a full set part of the deck’s core – my tournament report speaks for the card’s strength in this deck. That leaves a single flex spot. I packed Tarfire over Curiosity as my Goyf-booster of choice, expecting a decent amount of Grixis creature decks (against which it hits Pestermite, Young Pyromancer, Delver of Secrets) and Collected Company (against which it hits everything). My testing against Jund with mainboard Curiosity proved favorable enough that I figured cutting the enchantment to beat up on mana dorks wouldn’t hurt the matchup much.

I was wrong; after going 7-0 on Day 1, I lost two straight matches to Jund, and a third first thing in the morning on Day 2. I also lost to UR Twin and Affinity, neither of which I’m very worried about. Based on my testing against those decks, I’ll chalk the losses up to variance and play mistakes. I packed 2 Feed the Clan in the sideboard to bulletproof my Burn matchup, but the deck eluded me both days. So did Company decks, mostly stranding the Pyroclasms I’d been so excited to cast in the sideboard. Here's the list I played:

Monkey Grow, by Jordan Boisvert (GP Charlotte 2015)

Creatures

4 Hooting Mandrills
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire
4 Simic Charm
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Mana Leak

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
3 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
2 Feed the Clan
1 Dismember

Tournament Report - Day 1

Round 1 BYE (Planeswalker points)

Round 2 vs. UW Midrange: 2-0 (win roll)
Restoration Angel
By UW Midrange I mean Kitchen Finks, Restoration Angel, and Celestial Colonnade. My opponent apparently worked with Jeff Hoogland on the list. Game 1, I keep a hand of 2 Bolts, Tarfire, Scour, and lands, and draw a third Bolt. My opponent’s turn 1 Colonnade lets me know this hand might not get me there. Neither of us do anything until I draw a Delver some turns later. Path to Exile targets him on my upkeep but I hardcast a Shoal for 1, then draw a Hooting Mandrills, attack a couple times, and burn my opponent out with Bolts. All he drew was a Kitchen Finks. Game 2, I resolve turn 3 Blood Moon after my opponent taps out for Finks, taking him off white. He eventually draws a second Island and transmutes Tolaria West for Plains, allowing him to flash in a Restoration Angel. But by then my Huntmaster’s flipped three times too many.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon

Out:
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire
2 Thought Scour

Inkmoth NexusRound 3 vs. BUG Infect: 2-0 (lose roll)
I Shoal a turn 1 Noble Hierarch and resolve Delver into Goyf. Goyf gets chumped by a Spellskite and then by an Inkmoth Nexus, but Simic Charm +3/+3s my Delver for lethal damage. Game 2, my end step Lightning Bolt targeting a tiny Inkmoth gets Dispelled, and next turn my opponent puts a Might of Old Krosa on the Nexus before attacking. I Ancient Grudge it before damage. A pair of Goyfs get there pretty handily. End step Charm bounces one Glistener Elf and the second blocks a Tarmogoyf; another Simic Charm pumps the unblocked Goyf for lethal.

In:
3 Blood Moon
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
1 Dismember

Out:
2 Hooting Mandrills
4 Thought Scour
3 Stubborn Denial

ScapeshiftRound 4 vs. RUG Scapeshift: 2-1 (lose roll)
I mulligan twice game 1 and fetch a Breeding Pool, knowing I’ll be stuck on one land. I have Thought Scour and Mandrills and am able to power the monkey through on turn 3. He eats a pair of Electrolyzes, but I resolve another Mandrills. I start attacking and casting end step Lightning Bolts, getting off three of them for lethal before my opponent draws Scapeshift. Game 2, I find my lands, but not my threats. Scapeshift kills me. Game 3, my opponent mulligans to 5 and I cast turn 2 Mandrills and turn 3 Delver. Probe shows me Cryptic Command so I cut myself off green with an early Blood Moon. Mandrills kills my opponent before he can draw the third blue source.

In:
3 Blood Moon
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire
1 Disrupting Shoal

bloomRound 5 vs. Amulet Bloom: 2-1 (win roll)
Game 1, I have Delver into double Goyf and only a Disrupting Shoal to slow my opponent down. But I’m fast enough to get there before he draws anything. Game 2, I mulligan two no-landers and Probe shows me triple Summer Bloom, Titan, and Thragtusk. All I have is Island and Delver, so this one ends quickly. Game 3, I tap out for turn 2 Tarmogoyf, knowing I need a threat and hoping my opponent doesn’t have a Summer Bloom. He does, and with a Cavern naming Giant. I figure he has the Titan and know I’m dead to it next turn. But miraculously, I draw Blood Moon off the top. Delver and Simic Charm close out the game.

In:
3 Blood Moon
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Destructive Revelry

Out:
1 Hooting Mandrills
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire

Monastery Mentor CardRound 6 vs. Esper Mentor: 2-0 (lose roll)
I lead with double Delver and my opponent’s stuck on 3 lands. He has a bunch of clunky Lingering Souls. On the last turn, I bolt a Spirit and Simic Charm pump my unblocked Delver for lethal. Game 2’s a grindfest; all my stuff gets killed and Creeping Tar Pit brings me all the way down to 8. My opponent has no nonbasics in play and tapped his Polluted Delta with an Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth to animate the Tar Pit, so a Blood Moon locks him out. He finds an Island but dies to Huntmaster.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon
2 Pyroclasm
1 Dismember

Out:
2 Hooting Mandrills
4 Disrupting Shoal
4 Thought Scour

TwinRound 7 vs. Grixis Twin: 2-0 (lose roll)
Game 1, we both mulligan once. My best play of the day: I land a 2/3 Tarmogoyf (Probe and land) and he drops a Tasigur with 3 mana up. I draw Simic Charm and attack with Tarmogoyf. He flashes in Pestermite to tap down my Steam Vents, and I float blue in response. Then he double blocks the Goyf. I use the blue and tap Forest for green to cast Simic Charm, bringing Goyf to 6/7 – just big enough to kill Mite and Tasigur while surviving. I cast Mandrills and take the game. Game 2, I Tarfire + Lightning Bolt a Tasigur so my two Mandrills can do some work. I fetch and Probe like an idiot and end up at 3 life, but my opponent never finds Lightning Bolt and the monkeys kill him.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Thought Scour

Round 8 vs. Jund: 1-2 (win roll)
Liliana of the VeilNam Sung-Wook is quick to double Bolt my Hooting Mandrills. I’m short one mana to Stubborn Denial the second burn spell, and my follow-up Tarmogoyf is no match for Scavenging Ooze, Dark Confidant, and Liliana of the Veil. Game 2, I transform a pair of Delvers after the third gets Bolted. Ooze has no targets after I delve out my graveyard for Mandrills, and I sacrifice the monkeys to Liliana for the lethal aerial swing off a Simic Charm pump. Game 3, I keep a sweet hand with three threats. I slow-roll my Delver, casting a turn 2 Mandrills to dodge a represented burn spell, but the Ape again eats two Bolts. I follow-up with double Delver, and one immediately dies to Chandra, Pyromancer. I transform, attack the Chandra, and kill it with Bolt. Nam tries to Decay the Aberration next turn, but I protect it with Simic Charm; it still dies to a Liliana. Then I get my Huntmaster Thoughtseized and a Tarmogoyf runs me over.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Disrupting Shoal
4 Thought Scour

Round 9 vs. Jund: 0-2 (win roll)
I lose my Delver and Goyf meets another Goyf. I don’t have the Simic Charm to push through and my opponent draws Liliana to stabilize. Game 2 goes pretty much the same way.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Disrupting Shoal
4 Thought Scour

Tournament Report - Day 2

Round 10 vs. Jund: 0-2 (lose roll)
Scavenging OozeA third straight beating from Jund. Two removal spells and my own two Thought Scours put all my Tarmogoyfs in the graveyard. Mandrills gets close, bringing my opponent to 6, but I have to Leak a Huntmaster, which puts a creature in the yard for Scooze. I’ve got no choice but to force Scooze and Confidant to double block the monkeys, killing them both, because otherwise Ooze grows to 4/4 next turn. Tarmogoyf from the top forces my scoop. Game 2 I run into a Thragtusk, which I kill. My opponent returns it to his hand with Kolaghan's Command. I seize the opportunity to Blood Moon, cutting him off green, but he draws a Forest naturally before my Delver can kill him. Scavenging Ooze follows the Value Beast and I can’t keep up.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Disrupting Shoal
4 Thought Scour

TasigurRound 11 vs. Grixis Twin: 2-1 (win roll)
I mulligan to 5 and my opponent goes to 4. I open with Serum Visions, Tarmogoyf, and Tarfire my opponent to turn on Stubborn Denial and start clocking for four each turn. He makes his land drops and continuously chumps Tarmogoyf while I slow-roll a Bolt with my opponent at 4. I eventually cast it his end step, and he cracks Mire in response to cast Cryptic Command into my Stubborn Denial. Game 2, I mulligan once and draw a lot of nothing. Tasigur beats kill me. Game 3, my opponent mulligans once and is stuck on two lands. Goyf into Mandrills with Denial backup kills him.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Thought Scour

Round 12 vs. UR Twin: 1-2 (win roll)
Deceiver ExarchGame 1, I mulligan once and assemble an army of Goyfs and Mandrills. My opponent stalls just long enough to find Splinter Twin for the Exarch with Desolate Lighthouse at 6 life. Game 2, my turn 2 Mandrills goes unanswered. Probe gets Negated, and I Simic Charm pump with my opponent at 10. He goes to 3 and tries to Dispel my Lightning Bolt, but I respond with Stubborn Denial. Game 3, I mulligan once and am stuck on two lands with a hand of Bolt, Simic Charm, Destructive Revelry, Stubborn Denial, Serum Visions. I have Goyf and Mandrills in play when he goes off, and I try to Deny the Splinter Twin to play around Spell Snare since my opponent’s at just 4 life (no sense in maybe blowing him out with Charm). He taps out for Dispel and I’m short the third land to cast Revelry or Charm.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Thought Scour

Round 13 vs. Affinity: 1-2 (lose roll)
Arcbound RavagerProbe shows me double Signal Pest and an Arcbound Ravager. I Shoal the Ravager but the Pests, backed up by a Welding Jar, prove too much for my two flipped Delvers. A second Ravager puts a counter on Pest so it kills Aberration after blocks. Game 2, Tarfire into Shoal slows my opponent way down. A 6/7 Tarmogoyf puts him on a two-turn clock. He gets Cranial Plating on a Spellskite and attacks me, but I bounce the Skite with Simic Charm and Revelry the Plating. I bounce the Skite again next turn and attack for lethal. Game 3, I’m too slow to burn a Vault Skirge with Tarfire. I was waiting on a Huntmaster to eat the Skirge and taking 1 Lifelink and 1 Infect damage per turn. Couldn’t find a single threat of my own to establish an actual clock and Champion + Galvanic Blast killed me.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Hooting Mandrills
4 Thought Scour
2 Stubborn Denial

Round 14 vs. Merfolk: 2-1 (lose roll)
Master of the Pearl TridentWe’re dueling for cash at this point. My opponent leads with Island, go, and I correctly peg him for Merfolk. I play a Tarn and pass, Bolting his Lord of Atlantis and following that up with a Tarmogoyf. But 3 copies of Spreading Seas cut me off green and red and the Goyf gets Vapor Snagged. Game 2, I Revelry an Aether Vial then slowroll Pyroclasm to hit Cursecatcher, Silvergill Adept, and Kira, Great Glass Spinner. Eventaully my 5/6 Tarmogoyf is racing a bunch of unblockable Folk. At 7 life, my opponent gets me to 1, and on the end step I Simic Charm bounce his untapped guy. Then I untap, attack, and Charm pump for lethal damage. Game 3, I Shoal a turn 1 Vial. My opponent casts Cursecatcher next turn and misses his second land drop. He finds the Island next turn and plays Master of the Pearl Trident to match my Tarmogoyf, but I Bolt the Master and attack for 4. My two Delvers never flip but my Huntmaster does and I drown the fish in value.

In:
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
1 Dismember

Out:
4 Thought Scour
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Mana Leak

Round 15 vs. Bogles: 2-0 (win roll)
Slippery BogleGame 1, we both mulligan and I lead with Probe, Delver. I see Dryad Arbor, Rancor, Daybreak Coronet, Spirit Link, Spirit Mantle, and Temple Garden, and correctly figure he’s on an equip-the-tree plan. He lays Arbor and passes, and I play another Delver and attack on the ground for 1. My opponent tries to put Rancor on the Arbor with Garden, but I Bolt it in response. The Delvers flip and are joined by a Mandrills, attacking for lethal the turn after. Game 2, I Shoal Spirit Mantle with a 2/3 Tarmogoyf out, growing him to 4/5. My opponent has Gladecover Scout with Ethereal Armor and Hyena Umbra, and asks how big my Goyf is. I say “4” and he attacks with the Scout. I block and he says, “First strike?” I say sure and then eat the Umbra. Guess he didn’t know Goyf had +1 toughness. I scry Stubborn Denial to the top and draw it withGitaxian Probe for life, leaving mana up instead of casting Mandrills and Delver in case my opponent draws a Coronet. He does, and I Deny it before casting my creatures and swinging for lethal.

In:
3 Blood Moon
2 Destructive Revelry

Out:
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire

Post-GP Charlotte: A Furry Future

CuriosityGetting Terminated by other green decks taught me an important lesson: as long as BGx patrols Modern, Curiosity will shine in this shell. No other deck can abuse the card like Monkey Grow. Turn 1 Delver, turn 2 Curiosity with Denial or Disrupting Shoal for protection wraps games up immediately against most of the field. Meanwhile, the card is integral to victories against resilient attrition decks. My threats would often connect against Jund 2-5 times before opponents found and resolved an answer. At that point, they’d sit comfortably at 5 life and kill me with Goyfs as I drew into lands and counterspells. Curiosity makes those 2-5 connections draw me that many cards, ensuring I have more protection for my creatures, extra threats to keep the beats flowing, and reach to end the game. It invalidates the BGx strategy of one-for-oneing its adversaries and is just as relevant against Jund as it was against Abzan.

But with 4 Simic Charms, space is scarce. I’m cutting a Thought Scour and the Tarfire for 2 Curiosity. With double Pyroclasm in the board, Tarfire might be overkill against Company decks. Scour helps set up Mandrills-Denial on turn 2, but it’s still weaker than Charm, and probably than anything else in the deck. On other alterations to the core, I can also see cutting one Disrupting Shoal for the fourth Denial in some metas.

Kolaghans CommandWizards is surely thrilled with the results of GP Charlotte. The success of rogue decks like Elves and Lantern Control lets them make their favorite claim: “Modern is a wide-open format!” “Wide-open” might be a stretch – the format can be neatly divided into three groups. Barring a couple lower-tier, fair aggro decks (Merfolk, Abzan Company, Zoo), Modern decks mostly fall into two camps: aggressive linear decks, like Storm, Infect, and Burn, and interactive strategies in BGx and URx that bank on pairing off against the linear decks they brought sideboard cards for. The real new deck at Charlotte wasn’t the linear Griselbrand Reanimator, but the interactive Grixis Control. SCG Columbus showed us a variety of takes on the deck a couple weeks ago, and its design space remains largely unexplored. A variety of different builds have already seen success in the format, pointing to the viability of the the Thought Scour–Snapcaster Mage–Kolaghan's Command engine. Capitalizing on tempo gained from opponents playing around Splinter Twin enhances the deck’s strategy. That Serum Visions and Blood Moon fall seamlessly into the strategy is just icing on the cake. I’ll leave you with my initial take on the deck:

Grixis Control, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Gurmag Angler
1 Vendilion Clique

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Terminate
3 Kolaghan's Command
1 Electrolyze
3 Mana Leak
2 Remand
1 Spell Snare
1 Dispel
2 Cryptic Command

Enchantments

2 Blood Moon

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Bloodstained Mire
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Island
2 Swamp
1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Vedalken Shackles
2 Spellskite
1 Negate
1 Counterflux
1 Dispel
1 Blood Moon
1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Olivia Voldaren

Modern might not be “wide-open,” but it’s definitely varied enough to remain my format of choice. I look forward to seeing this and other archetypes evolve in the coming months.

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