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Insider: The Gods Must Be Crazy III

Posted on April 17, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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(Journey Into Nyx Edition)

After weeks of waiting, lots of thought being put into just what we will see. We now have our new Gods! Unlike some, I'm not sure what prayers have been answered. At the beginning of this block, I was sure that the Gods would break open this format from head to toe. It felt like the flavor, abilities, attributes and just the fact that they are all inde-freaking-structible would have a huge bearing on where this format could and would go. I'm not so sure this hasn't come true.

Looking over the New Gods, I just keep coming back to Wizards design policy. One that I feel warrants repeating here. Now keep in mind this is one man's feel of a situation, but I can't help but appreciate Wizards of the Coast's constant awareness of "Once it's out there, you can't put it back." This goes back to not only the new cards being released, but also the amount, the power, the new mechanics, etc. etc. I will backpedal slightly, though: It's still obvious Wizards doesn't test everything, but there's a general, solid sense of the fact. Pandora's Box is truly a scary thing, and once it's opened......

1) Kruphix, God of Horizons

Kruphix highlights the changes that have become inherent in the New Age. More cards are popping up with multi-format usage. This is one of the purest examples of a Commander All-Star that I have seen in a while. While the card itself may not see much fluctuation or play in Standard, I envision the popularity of Commander alone will drive this card's price, especially Foil.

While I am on this, if you haven't already notice the disparity between Foil & Non-Foils, I suggest you take a long hard look. Commander is doing nothing but gaining momentum and it effects Foils & Non-Foils that many would have ignored before. It's here to stay and is effecting more and more singles, design philosophy, and pricing.

Kruphix, God of Horizons' future (3 Months) stable value is estimated at $7.00.

2) Keranos, God of Storms

I went over Keranos in depth last week, but some of my thoughts there deserve reiterating. Out of all of the Gods revealed - Keranos is truly the only one that will stand on it's own. Keranos would love to be a creature, but the two abilities he has can just take over. Who cares if he ever activates? He feels very close to a Planeswalker in power, and I'm unsure if the mana cost is actually not high enough. Obviously play and testing will truly decide his fate, but I think at this moment his late game applications are just way too potent. This will still limit the number of copies that will be played per control deck, but I'm just not sure the price point he's currently floating at, $15, is anywhere near his ceiling. $25-$30 in the mid, $15 in the long feels more correct. There are 2.5 Gods that I feel will really impact Standard. Keranos, God of Storms is one of them.

Keranos' future stable value is estimated at $20.00.

3) Iroas, God of Victory

Inherently, all of the Red or Green base Gods get a shot in the Standard realm because of Burning-Tree Emissary. Burning-Tree's ability to power up the Gods cannot be overlooked. Just like Nightveil Specter. On the other hand, I believe Iroas' abilities are an uncertain mixture. You want to play him with Boros Reckoner - yet, half of what Reckoner does is the ability to wipe out the other team. Testing and tournament results will really determine how much impact he has on Standard, but in older formats he just doesn't seem to be good enough. Possible Foil implication in Commander, but don't expect too much.

Iroas, God of Victory's future stable value is estimated in the mid $9.00 range.

[cardimage cardname ='Burning-Tree Emissary'] [cardimage cardname ='Nightveil Specter']

4) Pharika, God of Affliction

Now, we come to the interesting parts of the Journey Into Nyx Gods. Pharika's ability is primarily a sideboard effect, in and of itself. There's potential for the 1/1 snakes to be important against an aggressively offensive deck. This will take having contribution to G/B that I just don't see in Standard. The targets are there, but with only 4-5 month's to take advantage - they should have already been targeted, so that quick movement is capable in the upcoming weeks. There's been a number of heavy black creature based decks in Modern, that have been performing at a Tier 2 status. I'm not sure if this is the card to truly push it over the edge, but possible targets such as Bloodghast, Geralf's Messenger, & [/card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] have benefited from Pharika being printed. Black creatures will continue to be popular, and the ability to effect actively a strategy that G/B has tools against, but are singular in purpose - will push G/B to hit harder and faster. I feel like Pharika is one of the afforementioned 2.5 Gods that will have great effect.

Pharika, God of Affliction's future stable value is estimated in the mid $8.00 range.

[cardimage cardname ='Bloodghast'] [cardimage cardname ='Geralf's Messenger'][cardimage cardname ='Phyrexian Obliterator']

5) Athreos, God of Passage

Again, one of the Gods that does care about the board state at hand. On this hand though, he protects you from over committing to it. On the other, he punishes your opponent if they DO attempt to wipe the board. The crux is that window it takes to redeploy. That makes all the difference! The inherent problem with committing so much to the board, is that most decks do this in the form of creatures. Permanents of other types just don't come up as often. For whatever reason, even with a plethora of good colored artifacts, non-creature enchantments, or planeswalkers, we just haven't gotten the right combination of cards to really want to care about activating a God outside of creatures. This leads me to feel that sweepers, although common now - won't be in upcoming months. Many of them are moving to 6 CMC but it's the 4 CMC that rule the format currently.

Athreos, God of Passage's future stable value is estimated in the mid $28.00 range.

In Conclusion

There does not feel like one God over another that will create a new format all itself. It feels like they are all role players that will fit snugly into that 2-3 copy range. Although Pharika and Athreos could easily break out into the backbone of an aggressive strategy in both Modern or Standard, I envision Atheros being the chase God of Journey Into Nyx. Also, the other effect that could impact all of the Gods' usage: What true usage do we get out of Bestow. Bestow lets you commit multiple late game draws to power up early game creatures, while also triggering the Gods into their creature form. We haven't yet seen all of the Journey Into Nyx spoilers, but I have a feeling Bestow itself will change how most of the Gods are looked at. Keep a close look on their value as the format changes with such a striking mechanic being so pivotal to the Gods themselves.

-Until Next Time

Insider: Sorting By Ascending Price

Posted on April 17, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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Every year about this time, I like to start combing the current block on TCGplayer to see what rares are priced at bulk rates. I generally define bulk as anything available at 15 cents or below, but you could make a case for 25- or even 50-cent cards being bulk, too.

Buying into a card at bulk prices is often a waste of time, but it also entails very little risk. You can almost always get 10 to 15 cents for bulk rares, so buying in at or barely above that price means you’re putting very little money on the line. If a 15-cent card starts seeing Standard play, the multiplier on these types of specs can get absurd. If a 15-cent card hits $1 on buylists, that’s nearly a sevenfold increase. We’ve seen this type of thing happen in Standard recently with cards like Sever the Bloodline and Nightveil Specter.

There aren’t always opportunities, especially as more people get interested in MTG finance, but it’s worth taking a look. After more than six months of constantly drafting Theros, the time has come to start keeping a careful lookout for these types of specs—all the way until the fall release.

**A Look at Theros Bulk**

Going by TCGplayer low with shipping included and/or lots of copies for sale, the following cards are available for 20 cents or less:

20-cent and Less Theros Cards

*Titan of Eternal Fire

*Shipbreaker Kraken

*Psychic Intrusion

*Anthousa, Setessan Hero

*Meletis Charlatan

*Triad of Fates

*Pyxis of Pandemonium

*Akroan Horse

*Hundred-Handed One

*Celestial Archon

*Ember Swallower

There’s not a lot to love here, but the card with the most possibility is Triad of Fates. As a legendary creature in a color combination popular with casual players, this could see some play in Commander. It’s so, so slow, but it’s also cool if you’re the type who enjoys durdling. Oblivion Stone is a similarly slow Commander staple, and both use fate counters. Did somone say sssyyynnneeerrrgggyyy? That said, I’m not necessarily buying in yet. There’s a few dozen copies available at 16 cents, but since I don’t anticipate this ever seeing Standard play, it’s going to be a year or two, minimum, before this sees any growth.

21- to 50-cent Theros Cards

*Abhorrent Overlord

*Steam Augury

*Anax and Cymede

*Tymaret, the Murder King

*Polis Crusher

*Artisan of Forms

*Bident of Thassa

*Curse of the Swine

*Prognostic Sphinx

*Reverent Hunter

*Daxos of Melitis

*Agent of the Fates

*Firedrinker Satyr

*Colossus of Akros

There’s much more to like here, although buying in at current prices would entail some amount of risk. If you believe one or some of these cards has nowhere to go but up, it could be a good time to buy, but I’m mainly planning to keep an eye on the following and snag them when they fall below the 20-cent mark.

Legendary creatures: Anax and Cymede, Tymaret, the Murder King, and Daxos of Melitis all deserve a mention just because of that single word on the type line. Unfortunately, none are particularly appealing as commanders, but they could still see play as utility cards. Each is powerful enough to warrant Standard play—but only in the right meta and specific decks, and it’s unclear if that situation will ever come to pass. The maze runners from Dragon’s Maze show us that rare legendary creatures that aren’t particularly flashy don’t get much of an immediate bump from casual demand. We’ll see if the long-term turns out differently, but I’m not rushing to buy quite yet.

Steam Augury: This is the first one I really like. With a whole bunch of copies available in the 30-cent range, this can’t fall much further. Once Sphinx's Revelation rotates out of Standard, instant-speed card drawing will be in demand. Keranos, God of Storms may just be powerful enough to make blue-red decks the default for control, and if that happens, Steam Augury will likely be a four-of.

On the other hand, this is no Fact or Fiction. I’ve had the opportunity to play with and against the card in Cube, and it’s proven to be average at best. Of course, part of my bias against it comes from the number of times I’ve been able to deny my opponent a game-winning combo piece—something that won’t be as much of a factor in control decks. It’s good to be aware that not getting final say on the cards you get is a serious downside, but there aren’t a lot of good card-drawing options in Theros so far.

Colossus of Akros: I bought a few copies of this at 24 cents a while back. It’s since gone up to around 50 cents. I’m testing the idea that Timmys won’t allow a 20/20 to be under $1 in the long-term. I could, however, be way off base, since the card only says 10/10 and doesn’t really do anything all that flashy. As a rare in the most-opened set of all time, I definitely have doubts about its future, but it’s hard to imagine this being straight-up bulk a couple years down the road.

Moving on to Born of the Gods

20-cent and Less Born of the Gods Cards

*Whims of the Fates

*Forgestoker Dragon

*Silent Sentinel

*Tromokratis

*Arbiter of the Ideal

*Eater of Hope

*Fated Intervention

*Heroes’ Podium

*Nessian Wilds Ravager

*Mindreaver

*Hunter's Prowess

*Perplexing Chimera

*Plea for Guidance

I don’t like any of these as buys, now or later. Don’t try to force something that isn’t there. I’ve seen Arthur Halavais touting Fated Intervention on Twitter, but I’m not sold on it yet.

21- to 50-cent Born of the Gods Cards

*Fated Return

*Scourge of Skola Vale

*Fate Unraveler

*Oracle of Bones

*Fated Conflagration

*Felhide Spiritbinder

*Astral Cornucopia

*Gild

*Whelming Wave

*Hero of Leina Tower

*Fated Infatuation

Frankly, I don’t much like what’s here, either. Born of the Gods may have not been out long enough for good cards to fall to bulk prices. There’s always a chance that Gild or Whelming Wave end up being role players in next year’s Standard, but I’m not looking to acquire copies at this time, except perhaps as throw-ins.

Just a Few More Picks

If we’re going a little higher on value, there’s three more cheap-ish cards I like from this block.

Swan Song is down to about $1. As a hard counter for half of the pertinent card types in Magic (since lands can’t be countered), this has some real potential in Legacy combo decks. Those decks don’t care about the 2/2 and a one-mana, hard counter for instants may be just what those decks need to get a little bit more consistency. It likely has some time before hitting, but I think the spike on Swan Song is more a matter of time than it is of “if.”

The Brainstorm Brewery guys called Karametra, God of Harvests on the podcast last week, and I think they nailed it. At around $3, this might have a little room to drop off further, but this is long-term casual spec that I love. I’ll be picking these up in trade at the current price and watching for $2 to $2.50 for a potential buy-in.

Spirit of the Labyrinth started out with some hype because of its potential in Legacy. The card has actually gone on to see a little play in Death and Taxes, but the hype has worn off. As a result, Spirit has all the same factors going for it, but is available at $2, around 20% of its preorder price. Although the cards serve different in-game purposes, Spirit has a lot of similarities to Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, which recently saw the spike that everyone long expected. If Spirit follows a similar trajectory, you have time to acquire copies, but you should definitely be doing so.

Sorting by Ascending Price

Starting from the dregs of a set and seeing what’s cheapest isn’t always fruitful, but it can be a great way to find low-risk investments. I’m deep enough in Modern cards that I’m just waiting for Modern season and I don’t feel like putting money into expensive Standard cards in an uncertain format. This is a perfect time to start looking at budget specs that can really pay off. As the summer doldrums approach, this will be a big part of my strategy moving forward.

Think I missed calling any of the cards in the lists above? Let the community know what you think in the comments!

Insider: Brooding over Born of the Gods

Posted on April 17, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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With the Prerelease Primer (aka the set review) just a week away, it’s time I looked back at my predictions from Born of the Gods. I was fairly certain when the set came out it wouldn’t do too much to shake up Standard, and that prediction proved to be mostly correct. While it certainly didn’t change the top decks, it did open up the field slightly, giving us a better, if not great, format.

Before we get to the cards, I want to ask if there’s a better way you guys think I should handle set reviews. I typically aim for SCG prices (the number most quoted to me in a trade), 3-4 months down the line. This is good because it gives me a hard deadline to predict for, but it’s not great at showing success or failure on cards that move in the interim. I’m open to suggestions here.

Now, let’s get to the review (of the review).

Astral Cornucopia

Then:

“$2 now, and that’s probably correct long-term. I know the idea is that this is “kind of” like Chromatic Lantern, but I’m pretty sure it’s just worse. It matches up poorly with all the other effects like this in Commander, so I don’t really see this taking off, even long-term.”

Now: 75 cents. This is one of those that, in retrospect, looks like an easy call. But in reality, this really did have people talking beforehand, so it’s worth following up on.

Courser of Kruphix

Then:

“This card’s abilities are actually pretty cool, and certainly powerful. That said, I don’t think it makes the cut right now, so the $4 preorder is too much for a few months down the line. But if it does make some moves early I could see it going up before it comes down.

Keep an eye on this one in Block, though. If it does see some Block play, it feels like the kind of card with just enough upside across the board to appear in Standard next season. That said, while I like the card I’m not suggesting going deep on them right now.”

Now: $10.

Definitely my biggest miss of the set, and one I’m kind of kicking myself over. I was a big fan of this card when we did the set review for Brainstorm Brewery, and I talked it up. That said, I didn’t expect it to really take off the way it did, or I would have actually given a real endorsement. I recognized the card was good; what I didn’t recognize was that it was so good it would make an impact even before rotation.

Eidolon of Countless Battles

Then:

“So here’s the deal with this card: It’s an archetype pick, and one that needs a critical mass of similar effects to work. Stuff this in a theoretical deck full of bestow guys, and it’s powerful. But unless you have enough of those you’re just going to end up with a 2/2 or 3/3.

But with another set of bestow cards coming out in a few months, this is one to keep you eye on when it falls from its current $3 to dollar-rare status. If the right (cheap) bestow creatures come along before the end of the block, there could be enough pieces to make such a deck work.”

Now: Still $3. With the new B/W god making white wennie strategies where this can fit even better, I actually don’t hate picking these up for the next few months. The ability on Athreos is powerful enough to keep it a contender for a while.

Fate Unraveler

Then:

“I’m pretty sure $1 is just wrong. This card won’t do anything in Standard, but it has to be a Nekusaar staple in Commander. Love trading for these this weekend.

Even if the card stays at a dollar or whatever for the next few months, I have a feeling this will trade out well to the casual crowd and randomly pop up on buylists for more than you expect.”

Now: 50 cents, basically bulk. I’m not sure if I’m wrong on this being a sweet Nekusaar card or if that alone isn’t enough to move it out of bulk territory. Considering how much we’ve seen the new Commander move the prices on other cards, I’m a little perplexed, to be honest.

Fated Intervention

Then:

“I also like picking this up at a dollar in trade this weekend. The card is certainly not absurd or anything like that, but my interest in it is this: green has a lot of flash effects right now. Boon Satyr on three, Advent of four, this one on five–-that’s a lot of instant-speed creatures.

What goes well with instant-speed creatures? Blue cards. Counterspells and Prophet of Kruphix. I have no idea if something like this is or could be viable, but only one piece of the puzzle rotates out in October, and when it does you can actually cut the white from this theoretical deck.

This is probably kind of a long shot, and I doubt this would be a four-of so its price wouldn’t go crazy anyway, but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on and grabbing some as dollar-rares this weekend.”

Now: 50 cents; bulk. Again, not like anyone lost anything here, but I have to admit I’m surprised Advent of the Wurm strategies don’t see more play right now. Like I said above, it’s something to keep an eye on at rotation, but I don’t have high hopes.

Fated Retribution

Then:

“This will likely see some Standard play, but probably very little. It’s going to be a Commander all-star, though, so I really like picking up foils over the next few months when they seem to bottom out. Same for Fated Return.”

Now: $1 and $4 for foils. Like I said, look for the bottom here and don’t be afraid to grab cheap foils, because I still like it long-term in Commander.

Herald of Torment

Then:

“My pick for the most underpriced card of the set at $1.50. This thing destroys Nightveil Specter in combat, and while you don’t get to randomly steal cards like you can with Specter you do randomly get to bestow it on something for the blowout. But I think there’s no way Mono-Black (which is getting even more tools this set) won’t adopt this card.

The most powerful Standard deck gets a new card, and it costs a buck fifty? Sign me up. That said, the Modern Pro Tour is going to steal some of the spotlight, so the upside probably isn’t quite that high. But this will see $5 if I’m right.”

Now: $3. Definitely scored on this one, and it’s not done seeing play. Both the Dredge deck it’s in, as well as the R/B Aggro decks, get a lot of help from Mana Confluence, and the power level on this guy is still super high.

Pain Seer

Then:

“Most overpriced card of the set. It’s not bad, but it’s not Dark Confidant and it’s not $12 good.”

Now: $3. Please, please tell me you didn’t think this was the next Bob. $3-4 sounds exactly right for a card that sees fringe play in one deck.

Spirit of the Labyrinth

Then:

“This is the real deal in Legacy, although the $7 pricetag feels a bit high. Once this set has been drafted for a bit, it’s probably like a $3-5 card, much like Thalia.”

Now: $3. Interestingly, Thalia has spiked since I made this comparison, but I think it still holds true. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Spirit follow the same path and get a bump in a few years from Legacy play, but for now it’s not going to get there.

Brimaz, King of Oreskos

Then:

“This guy is super powerful, and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him in Modern. I know people (Jason in particular) like to bring up Voice of Resurgence and say this will be $30+, but I’m not buying it.

The theory is this. Voice was the only good card in a bad set, so it has to carry more value to make up for the lack elsewhere. It’s a sound theory, I just don’t think it quite applies here, mainly because Dragon’s Maze was opened for less time than Born of the Gods will be, and we were all ready to jump into Modern Masters right after DGM came out, so we didn’t mess around with it for long.”

Now: $30 and trending downward. Honestly, this has no business being $30. It sees less play than something like Stormbreath Dragon, which has been opened more but is also $10 cheaper. That’s a big gap, and I feel like the downward trend on Brimaz will continue.

Gods

Then:

“In short, I think they’re all overpriced right now. Ephara is $10 and needs a lot of work to find a deck she fits in. She’s powerful, but I think she’ll fall before she rises, if she does.

Karametra and Phenax are just casual cards, and will drop hard before rising steadily over time with what I’m terming the “Eldrazi effect.” They’re big, flashy, fun Commander cards that are unique, but I don’t see either of these getting a ton of Standard play.

Mogis and Xenagos are both very good, sitting at $20 and $25 respectively. Considering how much play Thassa sees and where it sits, I have a hard time seeing either of these stay over $20. I imagine Mogis will end up $10-15ish and Xenagos $15-18ish.

Both aren’t the worst trade targets this weekend just to have them for the bustle of the first few weeks, but I don’t think they’ll cost more in a few months than they do now.”

Now: Ephara is $7, as is Mogis. Xenagod is $12. Off by a few bucks but nailed these overall, and I expect their prices to continue to bottom out before we reach rotation, at which point it’s time to stock up on these for both Standard play and the long-term “Eldrazi effect” I described above.

Kiora, the Crashing Wave

Then:

“Finally, my merfolk planeswalker!

Unfortunately, she sucks. Fun abilities, good in Legacy Lands or Standard Maze’s End and decent in Commander, but unlikely to make enough of an impact in any of those to make her $25 pricetag sustainable. $10 is in the future for this wavewalker.”

Now: Still $20. $10 may be the future, but then again it may not be. She’s definitely better than I initially gave her credit for, but the truth is she’s still a two-of planeswalker in one fringe deck (Bant Control). Is that enough to hold $20? I’m not sure, but the price has been fairly sticky there. As things stand now, I’m not sure it’ll drop below $15.

Wrap-up

Overall, I’m fairly pleased with my initial assessment. No set review is ever 100 percent right, and my misses on Courser, and Kiora to an extent, aren’t the worst thing considering I hit on some other stuff.

Overall, I would say I did middle of the pack in terms of my past set review. I hit on a few underpriced cards and called out most of the overpriced ones, but I did miss on the biggest gainer of the set in Courser, and that stings a bit. I also predicted all of the new scrylands to stay $5-6 but Temple of Enlightenment has stayed strong above that price.

Next week it’s time to take a Journey Into Nyx, and let’s hope I can improve!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

A Wild Dack Fayden Appears!

Posted on April 17, 2014May 27, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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UPDATE: The entire card has been revealed! Check it out!

We all know Wizards loves to bury spoilers for cards. We've seen Jace pieced out all over the world. We've seen Innistrad spoilers hidden in cryptic messages disguised as flavor. We've seen Return to Ravnica story spoilers brought out because of a one-point difference in font choices.

Well, Conspiracy is no exception.

To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of that. Luckily, people on Reddit are smarter than me sometimes.

After some complicated logistical work (seriously, read the entire post to find out what they did), we're left with this in the end. Which, of course, is what everyone really cares about.

Now just to find out where they've hidden the rest of the text...

Pretty cool, right? Now get to figuring out the rest!

JOU Spoiler: 4/17

Posted on April 17, 2014April 17, 2014 by Jason Alt

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AWWWWWWWWW YISS!

I was remarking on Twitter that the white enchantment in this cycle didn't really seem to fit. The Green, Red and Blue flash enchantments are all functional reprints of cards that benefit from flash because they were on cards that historically were balanced by the fact that your opponent would benefit from them before you did - Howling Mine drew them a card before it did you; ditto for Furnace of Rath allowing them to untap and play spells before you got the effect and Heartbeat of Spring limiting the upside you experienced the turn you played it because you invested the mana to play it. Playing them with flash allows you to play it at the end of their turn and untap and get a first crack at it. Dictate of Heliod doesn't really fit. It benefits from flash in that it's a sick combat trick.

Dictate of Erebos similarly doesn't fit the cycle but I don't even care. I have another copy of Grave Pact for my EDH decks. Not only that, Grave Pact was getting expensive despite all of its printings. This means this card should have some real upside eventually and this could curb the out-of-control price of G.P. (although if it doesn't, I'm fine with it. I like expensive EDH staples undervalued by the general population). This card doesn't need flash but I'm not complaining. I love that this card got printed. Love it. Love it love it love it love it. If you want to play with these, I don't hate its $4 preorder price, either. I'll be targeting every copy of these at the prerelease but probably not buying in for cash.

The hits keep coming! This is just a snap include in white sideboards and maybe white mainboards. This is unfortunately a $50 preorder and while I was all set to compare it to Hero's Downfall and suggest maybe you want to pick these up around $7, it's already at $12.50. This isn't $12.50 good, I don't think. It's Disenchant with high yet narrow upside. I think this card is very good, but it's also sort of situational and I don't like dropping $50 on a playset at all. Solid card, but I don't know if it can maintain its presale price.

An Oblivion Ring with a rewording to nerf some of the infinite loop shenanigans. This is a card we needed and now we have it. This will get lots of play and the presale price is bound to be wrong. If this presells for under $1, scoop them.

Good yet narrow. They really want this dredge deck to be a thing. I think people are going to start packing a lot more graveyard hate and the critical mass of enablers may trigger an onslaught of hate. I am not sure this card fits into the deck, but it doesn't have a ton of financial relevance either way.

Limited-playable common. Nothing to see here.

Another card with a rewording on an old ability. With a card like Tidehollow Sculler, there were two triggers and you could respond to the first to cancel the first one. This leaves no room for such shenanigans. This card appears to feature a large maggot crawling into some dude's ear hole.

NOPE

This art freaks me out but the card has the potential to be playable; effects like this historically are. Still, it's no Banishing Light so I don't see financial upside.

Insider: Looking at Modern Masters 2’s Impact

Posted on April 16, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers/speculators!

Today's article idea comes from Doug Linn, courtesy of our writers/editors forum. Many of you might think it's easy to come up with one article idea a week, but sadly it isn't (as my plethora of "unfinished" ideas in my queue can attest to). Luckily for me, Doug had the idea to come up with a post for article ideas when we get stuck. This is one of those ideas.

Modern Masters 2 Breakdown

The premise is an interesting one. A set of all reprints that caused Modern prices to jump dramatically by creating demand for the format and exciting people (see GP Vegas breaking the sealed GP record and me waiting in line for 2.5 hours to try and get into a MMA Mini-Masters). The experiment that was Modern Masters (MMA) will likely be repeated, though likely with a different card set.

The original reasoning behind Modern Masters was to reduce the cost of the Modern format. It didn't accomplish that as the marquee cards were printed at mythic (with the exception of a small few) and they are now more expensive than before Modern Masters came out. It's almost assured that MM2 will also be all reprints and likely include a lot of Modern staples from Zendikar block and forward.

I expect the following cards to make an appearance.

Inquisition of Kozilek (they could print this at rare like they did Aether Vial so as not to tank the value)
Sword of Feast and Famine (at mythic)
Sword of War and Peace (at mythic)
Sword of Body and Mind (if only to fully complete the cycle)
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur (these will likely replace the mythic "dragon" cycle)
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Sheoldred, Whispering One
Urabrask the Hidden
Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger
Karn Liberated
Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Vendilion Clique
Liliana of the Veil (if she's not reprinted before then)
Birthing Pod (if it doesn't get banned)
Chord of Calling

However, there are a lot of potential rares. If you're wondering why I didn't include the Zendikar fetchlands on this list it's because in MMA WoTC only had three rare lands (two of which tapped for mana of any color) and the other was Blinkmoth Nexus. WoTC has a love of printing cycles and I don't think they'd devote five rare slots to the Zendikar fetchlands.

Effect on Singles Prices

The fact that card prices actually rose after the printing indicates that the player base can absorb a much larger print run of the staples without crashing the secondary market. If we review the price graphs of the following MMA reprinted staples we can see how the rares were affected. (The only mythics that budged were the Kamigawa dragons, because they had casual appeal and demand didn't increase to meet the influx of stock, unlike the actual Modern cards.)

I've chosen to stop the graphs around October of last year because MMA was released in June, so the packs that would have been opened were mostly opened and the card prices had enough time to settle.

You'll notice that across the board these main staples dropped a little but not really more than 15-20%. Certainly not the $60 to $0.5 drops we saw with Chronicles. It's also important to note the current price of these cards have them back closer to (if not greater than) their previous price.

The other subset of cards are the sideboard or "niche" cards like Kira, Great Glass-Spinner which have yet to really recover.

What we learn here is that Modern-legal sideboard cards whose price is due principally to lack of supply are likely to take the biggest hits. While a lot of MMA rares dropped the value of their respective original printings, the ones that had the biggest plunge were like Kira.

While MM2 is likely still about a year away it seems wise not to stock up on the sideboard tech cards unless you can get rid of them in a timely manner.

Wizards' Goal for MM2

If WoTC's goal for MMA was to lower the price of Modern, they did a terrible job (in the long run--short-term they did drop the prices of some staples considerably). If it was to sell a ton of cards in almost no time and make a nice profit, they did an amazing job.

Now it does appear that a lot of MMA boxes were scooped up by speculators because the writing was on the wall regarding their price. Many of us have been saying the price of boxes was assuredly going to rise and likely hit $500 or so within a year or two.

Boxes of Ravnica and Future Sight already hit that mark, and the chase cards of those sets were also in Modern Masters, as well as a ton of other highly valuable, sought-after cards. This leads me to my next point.

Print Run

I honestly believe WoTC could print five to ten times as much MM2 as they did MMA and the Modern staples would drop by maybe 15%, if that. Now, I still doubt they'd print that much, but three to four times the print run is more likely.

The fact that MMA stopped at Shards block, after which quite a few Modern staples have been printed, indicates that MM2 will likely differ quite a bit from MMA. So the concern that MM2 boxes would cause MMA boxes to drop in value is unjustified--after all, the announcement of Return to Ravnica didn't cause boxes of Ravnica to drop in value.

The reason is simple. The people who tend to buy older boxes want them for:

Retro-drafts
Collecting
Chase cards

Only #3 would actually get "appeasement" from MM2. So there would still be demand for MMA from a lot of camps.

Another important point to consider is if WoTC will make MM2 a draft format like they did MMA. This is an interesting thing to consider because the rarity of some cards was likely determined so as not to make draft un-fun.

However, the number of MMA drafts I was able to enjoy can be counted on one finger. The format was fun, but to be fair, given the cost of packs and the value of many of the cards, making it a "draft" set was rather pointless. Very few people passed the rares they cracked (even if they were bad) unless the pack contained a more valuable uncommon, common or foil.

I hope that WoTC realizes that throwing in a lot of bad commons to make a box "draft worthy" is really just wasting space. Players would be thrilled if they cracked packs and most of the commons were just good staple cards as opposed to cutesy draft fodder.

What's Not in MM2

Lastly we want to look at what doesn't show up in MM2. One of the most obvious cards in need of a reprint in MMA was Thoughtseize, which escaped the set entirely, much to the anger of many players who wanted it for the upcoming Modern season. Lo and behold it showed up in Theros.

So if any "obvious" reprints don't make it into MM2, I wouldn't stock up on them for the next Modern season. They are strong candidates for reprinting en masse.

JOU Spoiler Spotlight: Harness by Force

Posted on April 16, 2014April 16, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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I'm not exactly a Red player myself, but I know those who are love themselves a good Threaten. Or Traitorous Instinct. Or any of these type of effects.

Well, here's a good one.

It's kind of snuck into the background, but this is a really powerful card. Red decks have used Threaten effects in the past to great success, and I expect this to be no different. And this thing scales better than any Threaten effect in the past. Six mana may seem like a ton, but in the matchups where you want this out of the sideboard, it's actually something that can happen quite a bit.

The format isn't in a place right now where this is good, since the two main win conditions in Aetherling and Obzedat are somewhat resistant to this, but both of those leave in October, at which point I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this pop up, if it doesn't make an impact before then.

JOU Spoiler: Battlefield Thaumaturge

Posted on April 16, 2014April 16, 2014 by Jason Alt

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This is a very exciting card. I think its best application is in 100 card decks where cards like Comet Storm and Fireball suddenly become insane. Aurelia's Fury becomes more playable, etc. I like a lot of what people are discussing with respect to this card. Strength of the Tajuru is a card that people have discussed quite a bit with respect to this card, lending it playability in a lot of potential decks.

Its slated inclusion in a preconstructed deck limits its upside and I don't think 60 card formats are excited about this guy, but he has so much potential strength that his modest presale price, though likely high, could be somewhat reasonable. I think this is very, very cool, but I'm not preordering. I am sure if you think about it for at least a minute you can come up with a cool interaction with this guy and anything that gets people brewing is good for a set even if it might not be super relevant financially. I like this card a ton and I am targeting foils if they start out reasonable.

Insider: How to Get Paid Like an Ogre

Posted on April 15, 2014January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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The year is 2012.

The place is Orlando Florida.

An up-and-coming Magic financier teams up with a veteran to learn the ropes and take down an ambitious shop crawl that will test their mettle and push them to the limits of their abilities as they keep each other sane during a weekend that could very easily have been the trip from Hell.

This isn't the plot from a failed sitcom (Tuesdays at 8 PM Eastern on the "Niche Within a Niche" Network), but rather fairly important exposition. Despite Magic: the Gathering being around since 1993, here we were in 2012 and I was seeing something that, as far as I knew, had never been attempted on this scale.

Friday morning before attendees were admitted, a group of vendors composed of Ogre Stevens, Jeff Satern and Israel Rivera held an auction for the other dealers. With all of their cards organized by price and the total price for each box known going into the event, other dealers were given a chance to bid on boxes of cards, ranging from $0.10 picks up to cards like dual lands, all at very competitive buylist prices.

The idea of dealers selling to dealers was not new. The idea of selling to dealers at buylist prices wasn't new, either, but it doesn't immediately seem like a good one. Finally, the concept of showing up at the event with your cards organized by price wasn't exactly new.

What was new was how effective the technique was, and what an impression it made on me, someone seeing it in practice for the first time.

Ogre the Noun

Ogre Stevens is an imposing figure. At 7' 4'' ^{[citation needed]}, Ogre is easily the largest dealer in the game, and he's also one of the longest-working. Formerly of Troll and Toad, Ogre invented half of the things we consider to be old cliches in this business.

Ogre taught me a lot about how to buy because he makes it clear he doesn't care about cards, only numbers. When I trade for stuff I want, I sometimes will overpay, or waste time talking about it. Ogre taught me to offer a number and not waste time having the person explain.

Whether the answer is "your number is too low" or "I want this for a deck" or "this card isn't for trade but it's in my trade binder because I don't know what words mean", the result is the same--you open your mouth to offer an explanation and he's already moved on to the next card. This lets you trade with more people in a given day because you don't waste time.

It also helped me on both sides of the buylisting table. No means no, so don't waste time explaining why you don't want to sell a card. Just say no and move on. Similarly, on the other side of the table, I learned to make it clear that there was no need for an explanation by moving on to the next card. If you just want to buy for buylist so you can sell for retail later, do you care if you're making your money because you bought $100 worth of Rest in Peace or $100 worth of Pack Rats? Nope.

Don't be rude, don't be terse, just make it clear that we can save time and move on. The other person will feel less like they have defend what they say no to.

This also taught me to ask about literally every card in a binder. I am trying to trade for value, not for me most times, so why not pick up cards I don't like or care about? I don't care if a card buylists for a quarter, if I can get it at a quarter or a dime in trade, why leave it in the binder?

Grab everything you can. They will be left with the stuff they like and want to keep, and you'll strip everything they don't care about. The more cards you get out of their binder, the more you get out of theirs and you accomplish both of your goals. Trading moxen for duals is sexy, but if you wait around for those kinds of trades, you'll starve in the mean time.

Ogre the Verb

To "ogre" a box is to organize by buylist price and group all of the cards in sections with cards that are the same price.

This is not going to help you do anything except sell to another person, usually a dealer. This is a great way to deal with cards in several categories.

Cards that are currently undervalued due to certain stores being overstocked
Cards that are a greater number than online dealers will take
Cards that are in a foreign language
Cards that aren't on a buylist for no discernible reason but have decent retail value

I am sure you can find other cards that belong on this list. 4th Edition Lightning Bolt randomly got a 75% bump this week? Ogre. Can't find a buylist that has a listing for an obscure FNM promo or Duels of the Planeswalkers cards? Ooooogre.

How to Ogre

Take all of the cards. Look up or come up with a number you deem acceptable for each card. Put it in a four-row box with dividers that separate by price. Go grab a cold lemonade because there is no step three. You're done. If you don't like cold lemonade, something is wrong with you and you should see a psychiatrist before you move on to the next step, because that involves interacting with other people.

What to Do Now

That "how to" section was pretty short. I was hoping to burn at least a few hundred words there, but it's really that easy. Some of the numbers will be entirely arbitrary or made up. That's fine. Once you have an ogred box, figure out how much the entire box is total. See if someone will give you 80% of that number sight unseen. This is called a "best case scenario."

Remember, let's not have a "hey, I could buylist all of this trash for 100% of that value! These are buylist numbers!" attitude here, because no, you actually couldn't. Some of the stuff in this box will be gas but some of it will be stuff that you can't buylist right now or which you would have to buylist for way cheaper. So either take this box to someone locally like an LGS or a dealer who likes to go through the effort of selling on Crystal Commerce.

You can also take an ogred box with you to a GP and shop it around. This approach is a bit hit-or-miss because sometimes dealers want to just spend money and get the kind of cards that sell well like this stuff, and other times they aren't inclined to pay for the additional freight charges associated with an extra 40 pounds of cards, no matter how many Pyrostatic Pillar you shipped them.

Why to Ogre

You ogre boxes because it saves everyone time and mental effort. It takes longer to ogre a box of 5,000 cards than it does to pack a box with 5,000 cards. Considerably longer. Not only that, you're doing 100% of the work.

When you take a hodgedy-podgedy box full of unorganized cards, no matter how gassy, the dealer looks through, offers their number on a given card and you say yes or no. They do a lot of the work because they have to know the prices and it's an easier job to say yes or no.

I am here to suggest that you want to do all the work. There are several reasons for this.

1) You Don't Have to Memorize Anything

What's the buylist price of a 6th Edition Goblin Recruiter? Quick! Quick! Don't look it up, snap off a hipshot answer. Look it up now--were you right? Now do that for every card on your desk. Now for every card in a 5,000 count box. You'll get a lot wrong.

Getting a number wrong when selling to a dealer means you take a number that is too low because it sounded okay to you. They give you the number they can pay, and you have to decide if you can get more for it elsewhere, and you have to do it from memory and you have to do it quickly. I think it's fun, but it also snowballs small mistakes into a big deficit at the end of a large box of cards.

If you ogre, you look everything up beforehand and don't have to try and answer from memory. If they want to offer a lower number, you can decide, but at least you'll know what you could get.

2) Save the Dealer Some Time

Why not? How bad would it suck if the transaction went faster and the dealer liked you? You usually end up with more of their money this way, but they like you more. They will be happy to see you next time and won't be unreceptive to your giant box of random junk. Having dealers like you is a good thing and if you can do this easily, why not?

3) Flip the Table

Usually the dealer is in the driver's seat, picking the cards they want, offering their numbers and you saying yes or no. What ogreing does is flip this dynamic on its head. Your numbers are the ones you will use because you

took the time to pre-price every card. Instead of you saying yes or no to their numbers, they are saying yes or no to yours. This changes the dynamic and puts you in the position of power. There is no advantage to press or anything, but it still puts them in the position to make a mistake and not you.

They may check their buylist for cards but stop because it's much faster to "qualitatively" look at cards and see if they "like" your numbers, rather than "quantitatively" check their buylist. This can lead to them paying more than their published buylist number because your number looks reasonable to them.

Not only that, but if a card is not on their buylist they won't make an offer. Even if they thought, "hey, we could use this" but don't see it on the list, they aren't going to know what to offer. If they see a card they think maybe they could use and there is a price associated with it already, they are more likely to just take your number if it seems reasonable.

You sell more cards this way, and you sell cards you might not have otherwise. Just like cases where the dynamic of the seller-buyer relationship may cause you to sell cards you may not have otherwise, this reversal can lead to them buying cards they might not ordinarily. This is good for you.

When Not to Ogre

Not every event is a good time to take an ogred box to the dealers. At some GPs there will not be a ton of local dealers. This is a problem because the farther someone traveled, the less inclined they will be to add a ton of weight to their vehicle or the freight they're checking by buying a large pile of cards.

Local dealers are more inclined to do this because their travel is shorter, and they are more likely to be smaller stores in need of cards. This can work to your benefit immensely. If there won't be many local dealers, I wouldn't take the box to the event. It will be heavy, you'll strike out a lot and you'll feel bad. Don't ruin your own day.

Also, don't take someone 90% nickels. If you do have quite a few cards at a nickel, try to move them locally, or make sure they stop looking there. You don't want them to get bored and not even look at the stuff you have at $8 or $9 because they got burnt out looking at a pile of stuff for a nickel.

Also, don't put total garbage in there at a nickel. Nothing worse than a Llanowar Elf should go in there. If Trader Tools says the best buylist price is $0.02, this is not a "screw it, I'll try and ogre it for a nickel" sort of a situation. Give them stuff they would be happy to pay a nickel for and they'll be happy with the experience and not hate you and your stupid four-row box full of guildgates you're trying to ship.

Finally, don't ogre anything you can more easily buylist. Ogreing is a lot of work and none of it overlaps with your buylisting projects so it detracts from those. This can be a good way to get rid of awkward stuff quickly, so make sure you use it for good and not for evil.

Journey into Nyx and the Future of Standard

Posted on April 15, 2014April 22, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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Now that the full set has been revealed, check out Part 2 of this series!

We're not even half-way through spoiler season and Journey Into Nyx has already far surpassed its predecessor in card quality. Where Born of the Gods brought us Temple of Enlightenment and Bile Blight to combat aggressive decks, Journey Into Nyx is looking to add a significant power boost to aggressive strategies. With 51 cards spoiled at the time of this writing there are quite a lot that deserve specific attention, which our individual spoiler spotlights do an excellent job of, but there are a select few that I would like to offer a more in-depth look at.

There was an error retrieving a chart for temple of enlightenment

There was an error retrieving a chart for bile blight

Mana Confluence

This card is already getting more attention than any other card in the set, and in all likelihood will be the biggest card out of Journey Into Nyx. That said, I pretty strongly disagree with a $20+ price tag for this card.

For the purpose of this discussion, let's start with why the card is good. On the surface, we see that Mana Confluence is generally a "better" City of Brass. City already sees a healthy amount of play in non-Standard formats, so it's pretty clear to see that Mana Confluence will show up in these formats as well. That said, how popular are these decks in Modern and Legacy? When was the last time that a City of Brass deck was dominant? If Dredge were supported in Modern then this card would be in very high demand for the format, but as of now the decks that demand Cities/Confluences are pretty fringe. And as for Vintage, how much can you really expect the "dead" proxy-supported format to drive prices of non-foils? I mean, foils will certainly be very expensive for Legacy and Vintage related reasons, but I don't see either format as really driving prices of non-foils.

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As for Standard, I have no illusions of this card not seeing heavy play. That said, comparisons of this card's anticipated popularity to that of Mutavault are exaggerated at best. Mutavault lives in decks that would like to turn lands into spells. It doesn't matter if the deck is aggressive or controlling, Mutavault will help you win or help keep you alive. The card has absurd versatility. Mana Confluence can really only live in multi-color decks that plan on dispatching opponents quickly. Not only are creatures absurdly efficient in this modern age of Magic, but the non-Shock burn spells in recent sets have a very high power level. How much damage can you really take off of your manabase while your opponent Boros Charms you?

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There was an error retrieving a chart for stormbreath dragon

Obviously Boros Charm is rotating, but even just looking at Theros there are excellent options for burn decks that will remain in Standard. Lightning Strike and Magma Jet are nothing to scoff at in terms of strict burn spells. Hammer of Purphoros, Fanatic of Mogis and Stormbreath Dragon aren't going anywhere either. Even for decks aggressive enough to warrant Mana Confluence, how awful must it feel to take one damage to cast your one drop and then have it die to Searing Blood?

The card is obviously good, and will certainly be played, but let's not pretend like it's all upside. I just can't imagine non-foil copies of this card maintaining their pre-order price tag. They're absolutely worth owning, but probably smart to wait on.

Gnarled Scarhide

So, Gnarled Scarhide might be the most impactful non-land card out of Journey Into Nyx. For starters, this makes 12(!) two-power one drops for black aggressive decks. The last time that we had this threshold of playable one drops in black, Vampires was able to win its fair share of tournaments. And they had to do it with Pulse Tracker. If we really wanted to get crazy we could have 20(!!) two-power one drops in a two-color deck- likely powered by Mana Confluence.

Some players are already picking up Monoblack Aggro in place of the Gray Merchant fueled Devotion shell, but the strategy is generally accepted as the weaker of the two decks. Gnarled Scarhide might be exactly what the deck needed to push it over the top. In addition to being the deck's third two-power one drop and having the utility of the bestow mechanic, it can also be used in corner cases to remove blockers by bestowing onto opposing creatures.

Minimally, Gnarled Scarhide will make Black-based aggressive decks stronger and more consistent. Potentially, Gnarled Scarhide could dethrone Monoblack Devotion as the best black deck.

Dictate of Kruphix

Brad Nelson posted an interesting UW Control list featuring Dictate of Kruphix over Jace, Architect of Thought that he and Todd Anderson had been working in his article for SCG last week. I like the idea behind it, and I believe that it's only scratching the surface of the card's potential. You can also read Jason Alt's take on this new Howling Mine here.

Maze's End has notably been missing a Howling Mine effect for a turbo-fog type shell, but that's probably still going to be a pet-deck at best.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for howling mine

Having flash and adding two devotion to blue strikes me as the most relevant aspect of this card. An empty board can turn into this and eight power of Master of Waves, and enchantments are excellent ways to enable any god.

Of course, if we are playing Howling Mine then filling our deck with efficient spells is going to be of the utmost importance. The idea of playing Dictate with the UR god in a burn shell has crossed my mind. Both effects would help to battle decks with counterspells and/or Duress, but they might just be too off-point and slow against aggressive strategies. Not to mention that the mana would be... awkward.

At any rate, I won't be surprised when this card sees play.

Spite of Mogis

Speaking of burn, Spite of Mogis is a pretty interesting card. It occupies the same space as Chained to the Rocks, so I don't see it as being playable in Boros Burn. It also has the drawback of not being a "real" removal spell until later in the game. It does have the upside of "comboing" with Boros Reckoner though. In all likelihood this combination is too weak in a burn shell, but it could work in a controlling shell planning on playing long games with large graveyards. It wasn't that long ago that Gerry Thompson top 8'd a Pro Tour with Boros Reckoner and Harvest Pyre.

There was an error retrieving a chart for boros reckoner

There was an error retrieving a chart for chained to the rocks

Even without the Boros Reckoner interaction I could see this being included in an Izzet burn deck as a replacement for Chained to the Rocks. I still don't know if there's enough incentive in that color pair to eschew Boros Charm, but it's on my radar. As of now the deck would probably just have to maindeck Skullcrack in the Charm slot, Ral Zarek over Warleader's Helix and Spite of Mogix over Chains and hope for the best. Keranos also has a place somewhere in the 75, though I don't feel confident in lowering the average damage count of the spells just for access to some slower, if higher impact spells. Perhaps Divination is worth a look, but there are plenty of cards to see before this call has to be made.

Eidolon of the Great Revel

I'm pretty conflicted on this card. I can't imagine a world where this card doesn't see play, though finding the appropriate home is going to be a bit of work. I think that it takes a lot of gall to jam Eidolon in a Mana Confluence deck, and it clearly belongs in an aggressive shell. The most obvious home is to find space in Monored Aggro à la Patrick Sullivan Red or Boss Sligh. It will probably die immediately almost every time, but even then it eats a card in addition to Shocking. I haven't been a fan of this type of strategy in this Standard, but I can imagine that this update will make these decks more competitive.

Check out Jason Alt's discussion on Eidolon of the Great Revel here.

The other deck that Eidolon could make a splash in is Red Devotion. This gives the deck access to 16 total RR two drops. It's a bit awkward to think about having Burning-Tree Emissary in the same midrange deck as Pyrostatic Pillar Bear, but I see potential there.

I would start with four of each of these and add 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel, some removal/Purphoros/his hammer to taste:

Access to the GB scryland is going to make Abrupt Decay more common, and therefor access to Chained to the Rocks less impactful, but I still believe white to be the appropriate splash. Chains are still the best answer to Master of Waves, large green monsters and sometimes the guy with Desecration Demon just doesn't have Abrupt Decay. Going blue for Turn // Burn is also serviceable though, and Ral Zarek + Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx sounds pretty absurd. Either way, the extra enabler will surely benefit the Red Devotion shell.

Journey Into Nyx is looking like a pretty awesome set to me. With about one-third of the set spoiled I'm seeing aggressive decks and Abrupt Decay as the big winners, though there's still plenty to be spoiled. Hopefully the set continues to deliver. And by that, I mean I'd be happy if there was one more playable burn spell.

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf

Insider: [MTGO] Speculating on Block Cards

Posted on April 15, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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If speculating with the Modern format seems to be easy and highly predictable, at the other side of the spectrum speculating on block formats is a totally different type of game.

Modern is a pretty resilient and predictable format. One more set, one less set, the whole format is not going to be fundamentally affected and it is easy to know which cards to bet on. Rarely, if ever, does a new card make an archetype disappear--there's simply too many solutions in a format with thousands of cards available.

On the other hand, it's not easy to predict what the block format will be before the release of the third set.

Archetypes that are strong with the two first sets may disappear entirely when new cards from the third set join the party, as with Innistrad block. Speculating on potential winners when the Block PT comes with only the two first sets could be a very risky exercise.

In addition, the block format is not nearly as popular as Standard and Modern. The PT's impact on prices is likely to be minimal or, at best, contained to short spikes. Many of the Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash cards used during PT Dragon's Maze didn't really move. Most of, if not all, of the noticeable spikes were on cards from Dragon's Maze's. Buying RTR or GTC cards in advance would not have made you rich.

By reviewing what happened with the two previous block seasons (Innistrad and Ravnica), we'll see that the only consistent strategy that worked out for me was to carefully follow the PT Block, ride the hype and deal only with quick flips.

Previous Experiences

Innistrad Block

With only Innistrad and Dark Ascension available, I remember at least four decks that were quiet popular and efficient at that time.

Red-White, with humans, tokens and Hellrider
Red-Blue, with Delver of Secrets, Stromkirk Noble, Spectral Flight, Furor of the Bitten and a bunch of direct damage
Blue-Green Self-Mill, with Splinterfright, Kessig Cagebreakers, Mulch and Tracker's Instincts
Jund Control, with a lot of removal, Garruk Relentless, Liliana of the Veil and Olivia Voldaren

These decks were pretty solid. Hellrider has proven to be an extremely powerful creature, and it was hard to imagine not playing the red hasty creature in Block. UG Self-Mill was slow but pretty resilient, and not much was needed to make it the real deal. Not much was missing for Jund Control, besides Bonfire of the Damned.

229 cards later, Avacyn Restored had totally changed the Innistrad Block format. More than twenty cards from AVR showed up in the Top 8 and at least four brand new archetypes emerged: U/W Miracles, Human Reanimator, Bant Shroud and Naya Aggro.

Simultaneously, all the previous archetypes established with ISD and DKA got completely wiped out by Restoration Angel, Wolfir Silverheart, Cavern of Souls, Bonfire of the Damned, Terminus, Angel of Glory's Rise and others.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Restoration Angel

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wolfir Silverheart

Before AVR was released, I had bought some ISD and DKA cards that I thought were good speculative positions leading up to PT Avacyn Restored. Among them, Splinterfright, Kessig Cagebreakers, Falkenrath Aristocrat and Stromkirk Noble.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kessig Cagebreakers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Falkenrath Aristocrat

In the end, only the Aristocrat turned out to be a good idea. I had to wait eight to ten more months to see Stromkirk Noble increase, and only because of Standard. Clearly, the others cards I invested in, which also included a couple uncommons from Innistrad, were a waste of time and tix.

Avacyn Restored was not yet available online when the PT was played, rendering any speculation on AVR impossible. As you can see from the Top 8 deck lists, very few cards from Innistrad and Dark Ascension received a boost. Falkenrath Aristocrat and Geist of Saint Traft were two of them. I was on the vampire but not the legendary spirit, as my bankroll and confidence were not good enough to speculate on a 20-tix card.

However, the one move that I made based on the results of PT Avacyn Restored was a good one. Increasing Savagery, that was unplayed so far, jumped from 0.1 tix to 0.8-1 tix. Nothing really big here, but it was about a dozen of tix made in two days, a nice little quick flip for a card that was totally under the radar.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Increasing Savagery

Ravnica Block

I don't have perfect memory about the state of Ravnica block with Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash. From what I recall, red- and green-white-based aggro and three-color control (Bant or Esper) were among the top contenders. Obzedat, Ghost Council, Jace, Architect of Thought, Sphinx's Revelation, Supreme Verdict, Loxodon Smiter, Detention Sphere, Mizzium Mortars and Angel of Serenity were among the usual suspects.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Architect of Thought

There was an error retrieving a chart for Angel of Serenity

Unlike with Innistrad Block, the third set, Dragon's Maze, didn't change everything. The core of the control and aggro decks remained similar. Players added Advent of the Wurm and Voice of Resurgence to their arsenal, and Aetherling and Blood Baron of Vizkopa took Obzedat's spot as a finisher in control decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aetherling

There was an error retrieving a chart for Voice of Resurgence

When PT Dragon's Maze came, none of the Return to Ravnica or Gatecrash cards that were already played spiked, and no new cards from those sets emerged from the PT. Speculating on Angel of Serenity, Boros Reckoner or Obzedat, Ghost Council might even have been a bad idea as they lost some value.

Here again, according to the PT results, quick flips were the best way to grind some tix. Unlike PT Avacyn Restored, the last set of Ravnica block was available online, and all the Dragon's Maze cards spotlighted during the PT spiked for one or two days.

Dragon's Maze was released on MTGO only couple of days before the PT. It is always a balancing act to try to speculate or achieve quick flips on cards in very limited supply and with high prices that are steadily on the decline.

I was able to make a couple of dozen tix with Aetherling, Blood Baron of Vizkopa and Deadbridge Chant. This was successful mostly because I didn't wait to sell my positions--the cards were bought on Saturday and Sunday, and flipped on Sunday night or on Monday at the latest.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blood Baron of Vizkopa

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deadbridge Chant

Take a look at some of the Dragon's Maze cards highlighted during the PT. Aetherling, Blood Baron of Vizkopa, Legion's Initiative,Deadbridge Chant and Voice of Resurgence all went up by 1 tix or more during this weekend. Only Advent of the Wurm remained relatively flat.

Theros Block

So, how to turn PT Journey Into Nyx into substantial profits? What is going to be a profitable move?

The examples of the past two Block seasons convinced me that it is pretty hard to find real winners among the two first sets of a block. Overall, the Block format itself is not a very profitable way to invest your tix.

Whatever Theros cards are going to be played at PT Journey Into Nyx, I'll be mostly focused on the JOU cards that receive a little boost, and I'll try to do quick flips only. I will stick to my strategy: buying promising cards on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and selling everything by Monday night at the latest.

At most, and similarly to what happened to Jace, Architect of Thought, the next PT could be a good indication of the future Standard. This is another story entirely, also with implications for speculation.

If you are more of a player, and know better than me which cards are likely to be played in the Theros Block deck lists, you may have an advantage. In my case, I'll follow the coverage and take a look live since PT Journey Into Nyx is in Atlanta, where I live. See you there!

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

JOU Spoiler: Weekend Wrapup and 4/15 Spoilers

Posted on April 15, 2014April 15, 2014 by Jason Alt

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This is as close to an Inspired effect I care about. Pain Seer got a lot more hype and went nowhere (so far (?)) so I don't expect this to presell for more than a buck or two. This might be worth doing something "cute" with like using it with Springleaf Drum but the effect being symmetrical and hard to trigger hurts it. You don't see people playing Juxtaposition in EDH or casual, either, so I have low hopes as much as I admire the design.

You don't want to play a card that says "each opponent draws a card" unless your deck has 100 cards in it and one of them is named "Nekusar". Post rotation people will play with Herald of Torment and they will miss Desecration Demon. What they will not do is play with a card that grants asymmetrical card advantage. Not in a world where no one ever played with Duskmantle Seer.

I think this card is amazing and then I remember that no one played Warren Instigator. Is this card better because it's not so narrow that it only gets goblins or is it worse because you can whiff? Is its 3 toughness the difference-maker or is its 3 mana cost going to make it even less playable? It's not exactly a clone of Warren Instigator, though, and will be used in a different manner and it's getting a ton of hype. I see it preselling for $10-$12 and that seems incorrect to me. The card most obviously buoyed by this card's reprint is Madcap Skills and there is no financial opportunity there. Feel free to tell me why I am wrong to not be excited by this mediocre-seeming and clunky card.

We liked Brimaz, King of Oreskos so much we decided to let you make your whole side a Brimaz! This seems like a card with potential, but its effect is not going to get you back into a game where you're behind. You get a marginal advantage when there is board parity and if you're ahead, it won't put you that much farther ahead. A token deck might want this, and I like the idea of playing this with Parallel Lives in 100 card decks, but there is no assurance it even makes the cut there. Not a huge fan of "win more" cards, and this feels that way.

Rageblood Shaman grants fewer bonuses but does it to better creatures. This is just a clunky lord that is powerful but only as powerful as the deck it can go in. I am inclined to say it could go up because it's a lord, but a lord without a tribe isn't necessarily good. Soraya, the Falconer would like a word.

Green might use an effect like this. Big, dumb monsters decks lack removal sometimes, and this can help with that. Still, I imagine its price will go down first even if it goes up later, leaving you time to scoop them if you believe in it. Green Red monsters suffers from quite a few things right now, and lack of a "beatface helix" is not chief among them.

JOU Spoiler Spotlight: Nyx-Fleece Ram

Posted on April 15, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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Check out the Journey Into Nyx Spoilers on our official [JOU] Mini-Site!

I'm certainly not highlighting a flashy card today. In fact, it's as wooly as they come. In fact, it's a sheep.

Actually, I suppose that makes me a sheep-ist or something, because it's not really a sheep. It's a ram. A big, strong Ram.

That's also an 0/5.

Why am I talking about this card? On the surface, it definitely looks like something you'd pass over. But I'm pretty sure it's not. Right now the Esper decks have a few flex spots that typically go to Azorius Charm to help them in the first few turns against Aggro. Well, I can't think of a better way to slow down Aggro decks than to toss a ~~sheep~~ Ram out there on Turn 2. The blocking is relevant, the lifegain is real, and if they use a card to kill it you're really happy.

Of course, there are several decks where it's actually just very bad. Doesn't help against Mono-Black and is smaller than most of the Monsters. Not to mention it's horrendous in the Control mirror. This seems to relegate it to sideboard play, where I think it will find a nice home.

The conclusion? Don't leave these in your draft leftovers, because it's possible you're going to need them in some capacity at some point.