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Insider: Journey Into Nyx Spotlight

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One of the unique perspectives I have the ability of offering is from being a dedicated merchant. Whenever new cards arrive, I get to dive back into the Wonderland world of "What will Sell?" Every true seller's nightmare is expecting one thing to happen and getting a completely different result. Often times, though, it doesn't matter. A card will be a seller, even for the most absurd reasons possibile, and - it just won't make sense.

Typically, players and people will just go with what they know. The online market place though offers even the most loyal customer the chance to try something new. If they do decide to go out on a limb, often times there is enough feedback on even your most ill established sellers to give you the needed motivation to "push the button." Price points will not determine if you get the most sells or not, often times though it comes down to exposure. How often are you there when they need a card? Five cards? Twenty? If they have to pay a little more in order to have a one stop shopping experience, then it becomes second nature for that to happen. Card selection is more important than all else.

This week, with the release of Journey Into Nyx spoilers, I wanted to dive into a the few cards that have been spoiled and dish out some of the meat. From a resell perspective - what cards would stick the most? There's not much to work with yet, but let's take a look.

Real Estate

The two newest Temples that we've received - Temple of Epiphany and Temple of Malady do not really hold very much sway in Standard. They'll compete with Shock Lands and aggressive decks in order to figure out that Mid Range and Control are still the only decks that want to play an "Always Come Into Play Tapped" land. The interesting part for me, beyond just completing the cycle - is it's application in older formats. Barring Legacy - I find that these two color combinations may benefit the most in Modern. Modern's card selection ability and the effect of manipulating your deck are few and far between, courtesy of the banned list. There are four high tier decks could potentially use these as 1-2 or even 3-4 copies, and not only fit the decks' play style but also the desire for card filtering.

What has been considered the budget deck du jour, has kind of taken the turn. UR Twin has now reach a solid representation that many of it's components are hitting highs that many have been hoping for. With these Temples, the pure combo plan of UR Twin finds another avenue of hitting the critical mess of spells in order to win. As well, often times Jund is played as a setup deck. Lacking the ability to filter it's draws in any shape or form could find a place for 1-2 copies of the B/G Temple. Both decks find that the early turns are simply for cheap, efficient removal or setting up for your combo turns later on. Storm plays much the same as Twin does. Looking for the early turns to filter out draws that will help get to the critical mass later on.

While not being able to hold up the price on there own. Standard will be what truly makes these cards tick, in the end. Look for this niche though to have an impact somewhere during the forthcoming Modern season as Mana + Card Selection is never a bad thing. Modern is full of decks that don't do many things in the early turns, and can afford to have more C.I.T.P tapped lands.

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

It's been rumored and hoped for a while that we get a new Ajani. This time showing up in the great color combination of Green & White. Typically, I love to look at a card's cross platform applications. While Ajani does not seem to be a Modern or Legacy staple - I do believe that he will be a fantastic Commander and Standard seller for a long time to come. Most players love cards without drawbacks. The inherit choices of having to make complicated decision trees doesn't necessarily appeal to them. Should I tick Liliana of the Veil up? Or should I make them sacrifice a creature? Ajani, Mentor of Heroes throws that out of the window.

Very few planeswalkers have had two separate plus abilities and both of Ajani's are useful if you have or do not have creatures in play. While his ultimate ability does not end the game immediately - it will significantly put it out of reach for both formats. Look for him to be a staple for years to come, and a great edition to the pantheon of planeswalkers. If by chance he hits his price floor during his print run - I absolute envision a 200%-300% percent long term hold increase. Watch his price carefully over the coming months.

Keranos, God of Storms

Keranos, God of Storms is breaking the mold. Many of the Gods that have been released have been very focused on the board state at hand. Many are focused on the creature count and that sheer volume of Devotion that you control. In my mind, Wizards wanted to very much get the Gods right. They didn't want them to be too powerful & they didn't want them to take over the games too easily. So far, we've only really seen one God become a multi-format All-Star: Thassa. Keranos, I think will again be able to fit a niche roll in multiple formats, thus, keeping it's appeal high.

The Modern UWR shell often has an issue with late game being able to close things outs. Currently this slot is filled with Ajani Vengeant most times. While multifuncitional against a very hard matchup, Tron, and considerably the trump in most control mirrors - I see Keranos, God of Storms doing more of what UWR really wants: card draw & renewable damage. This could also translate into some of the U/W/x builds that have been dominating Standard of late. An additional win condition that does not necesarily care if it ever becomes a creature or not. Once this hits the board - it's there and will continue to provide it's function the entire time.

In Conclusion....

The casual appeal of most of the Gods have already meant most of them are hard to keep in stock with high quantities, but the flagship of this block really has yet to disappoint. Now that the market has been saturated, the price floors are starting to more clearly come into view.  The lands, too, have proven time and time again that Magic begins and ends with the manabase. All other things are only possible from there. Some point in the near future, basic lands will become relevant again - ala Zendikar Block. There's been way too many Blocks with perfect mana. The setup is there, let's see if October brings us the Onslaught Fetchlands again.

The Mythics & Rares of today, are the fodder for a healthy trade binder of the future. The rise of Commander, the continued application of Modern, and Legacy forever being a thing have truly banished the notion that post rotation is the death of any card. In truth, you never know what will drive a card to be an amazing seller. ANY card is a good card to sell. It all just depends on how you want to be setup. Are you looking for short, mid, or long term profit? Buy low, sell high is always the name of the game. As always, just put in the work....

-Till Next Time

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Dylan Beckham

Dylan has been involved in Magic: The Gathering since the heyday of The Dark. Continually invested in the community, he's been a Pro Tour Player, Trader, Judge, Tournament Organizer, Volunteer, and Vendor. Currently involved with the day to day operations of selling online, Dylan has brought his experience to Quiet Speculation to make you a better investor. Hailing from the Atlanta area, and now part of the Dallas scene - he's often at big events sourcing cards or discussing Life, the Universe, and Everything. Have a question? Feel free to comment, message, or email anytime.

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Unlocked Insider: Forget Journey Into Nyx – Go Casual

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I can’t stop buying cards.

Seriously. Journey Into Nyx spoilers are coming out, and I think most of them are pretty cool. But it’s not those cards that I care about right now.

It’s the casual stuff. I just placed a big order for Damia, Sage of Stone. And Aurelia. And Rise of the Dark Realms. And I buy just about every Chromatic Lantern I can find. Gilded Lotus too.

Why?

Because these cards are all growing faster than any Standard spec, and faster than many Modern specs after the run-up of the last few months. And I don't want to miss having these in my store.

Look, I know it’s no secret I love casual cards, and with good reason. It’s hard to know whether or not Birthing Pod will still be good in three years or if Deathrite Shaman will be banned. Buying into the “sure thing” like Volcanic Island takes a ton of capital. But buying into Sheoldred is a lot more reasonable.

So with the prerelease coming up and everyone going crazy about new cards and Mana Bloom, today I wanted to look instead at some of the juiciest casual targets on the market--cards that will almost assuredly rise on average over the next year or two at levels matching some of the format staples in Standard or Modern.

Sheoldred, Whispering One

As I alluded to above, and wrote about back when it was nearing the end of its Standard lifetime, Sheoldred was always going to be a steady gainer. It’s a mythic from a third set, and is currently sitting at $8, though available for around $6 online.

Sheoldred, Whispering One

There’s nothing not to love about this graph. This card will be $15 in a year.

Chromatic Lantern

I talk about this one a lot, but that's because of how much confidence I have in it. It’s less attractive now that it’s hit $4, but I still think it’s a $10 card in 18 months if it isn't reprinted in that time. Foils are certainly going to go crazy, and will continue to do so even if it’s reprinted since many reprint avenues don’t put a foil copy onto the market.

Endless Horizons

I write about this one for a few reasons. Yes, it’s played in Commander, and that is part of its current $2.50 value, which is steadily rising.

But it’s also starting to see play in a fringe but nevertheless growing Modern deck, Mono-White Prison. It’s usually just a one- or two-of there to clear out excess lands, but since when has that ever stopped this stuff from going crazy?

There are just a handful of these across the internet, so this feels like the next random Modern spike to $10. Sigil of the Empty Throne fits in here as well.

Damia, Sage of Stone

Speaking of cards with very little supply, here’s one that is ripe to spike. This isn’t one you’ll see plastered all over the internet until it’s too late, just like Edric. But there’s no doubt this will soon be in for a price correction from its current $6 tag.

In fact, keep an eye on the original Commander cards. Most of them have only been printed once and have a lot of upside. Not only did Edric go up, but Sewer Nemesis also rose recently. I bet you didn’t see that one coming.

Gilded Lotus

Same story as Lantern, with a lower upside due to multiple printings. I know how easy it is to forget about cards like these since you take them for granted, but they are guaranteed money-makers.

Akroma's Memorial

This one is on a steep incline so the buy-in at $10 is a little higher than we’d like. But it’s still a solid bet to push $15 six months from now and $18-20 a year or so down the road.

Mimic Vat

The rise on this one, available for $2, seems to be slow but steady, and while the absolute value gains here may not be insane, it will be a steady climb to $5.

Angel of Serenity

Mythic angel. Powerful effect.

A lot of these are in circulation, but even so at $3 this feels a little underpriced. It’s going to be a bit before we see $5 and it’s a long climb to $10, but rest assured it’ll get there in a few years. Not a bad cards to lose in the box of extras until then.

Phenax, God of Deception

It may be a little early to start talking about this one, but I’m confident it’s a great pickup. The price has stabilized since its release and these are available for $5-6. I think it will come down a little bit more before rotation, but probably not a ton. We’re near the bottom, and when we reach it buy in heavy, because as a mill card that is also mythic and splashy (a god!), this is gold.

Cyclonic Rift

I don’t love the $4 buy-in price, but there’s no doubt this is one of those absolute must-includes in blue Commander decks. $4 is still going to be cheap if this thing makes it a year or two without being banned.

Consuming Aberration

I don’t care that this had a promo. $3 is cheap for where it will be before too long. Throw Mind Grind in there too.

Progenitor Mimic

Along with Prophet of Kruphix, these two cards make U/G (with the dirt-cheap Alchemist's Refuge) insane in Commander. A ton to like all around here.

I could go on with some more picks from recent sets, but those are all the casual cards at the top of my list from the previous one to two years. These are still available in binders but quickly drying up, and if you don’t move now on whichever of these you feel most strongly about you’re missing some easy money.

I’m confident enough in picks like these to take a portfolio of these against someone’s Modern picks for the next year--that’s how much stock I place in casual cards.

I hope these help make you some money as well!

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

JOU Spoiler: Kruphix, God of Horizons

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Spoiler over. I found my favorite card.

After giving us terrible, disappointing Simic cards for the last year, from the #4merfolk fiasco, to Plasm Capture, it's finally good to see Simic get something legitimately disgusting. It started with Kruphix's harbinger, Prophet of Kruphix, a card I aim to have 1,000 copies of by the end of 2014. Kruphix does it all. I think this is a better general than Omnath; while his power and toughness can't increase natively beyond the printed numbers, you won't mind when your Omnath has a built-in Reliquary Tower and Darksteel Plate.

If you're confused by the wording, don't be. It works the way you think it does. Its final clause indicates a replacement effect; unused mana does not empty from the mana pool but rather becomes colorless mana instead.

Yes, this is a good way to store mana to play a big Sphinx's Revelation in Standard.

Yes, this will be used to cast disgusting Genesis Waves in my EDH decks. Yes I am building another deck with him as the general. He's that exciting.

Will he impact Standard? Hard to tell. I almost hope he doesn't so his price will tank a bit. I would love to scoop a bunch of these for cheap. With the excitement surrounding it, I imagine I won't like it at its presale price, but this guy is very, very cool and he's easily my favorite god so far, Iroas included.

How does he compare to Iroas, the Boros God?

eBay has this guy at $15 right about now. I bet he goes up, but I'm not sure by how much, and I bet he also comes back down. Before you run out to buy these for Standard, ask yourself if Sphinx's Revelation needs any help. If you can hold off getting these for other formats, do. I don't plan to pay $15, but if I pop one in a pack, I won't sell either. If I get a foil, I'll definitely not sell. If you get a foil, sell, but only to me. I think that covers all of our bases.

What about Keranos? Find our spoiler review right here.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Spoiler Spotlight: Godsend

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I've also heard this called "Godsbane" instead...
I've also heard this called "Godsbane" instead...

What do you think?

Is this really a godsend to Standard or just another big, useless equipment?

It's certainly a cool effect. Elspeth's Sword is flashy, that's for sure. The fact you can get rid of any creature and then get additional value out of that is pretty cool. But is it good enough to see play?

Let's start with Standard. Basically it's never going to be in your opponents' interest to block your creature, so I think it's fair to say this is a Whispersilk Cloak with upside. So let's operate on the assumption it basically makes your creature Unblockable.

So we're paying three mana (which does help with Devotion), and then another three to Giant Growth a creature and make sure it gets in there every turn. That's certainly powerful, but I'm not sure it solves any of the problems the aggressive creature decks had. Namely, the fact that removal is so prevalent in Standard right now means there's a lot more killing of creatures than there is attacking and blocking.

That hurts the card. It's certainly no godsend to try and equip this to a creature just to have it pay the Ultimate Price or become blighted with bile. I can see this being a cool one or maybe two-of in the aggressive decks, but I don't think it really makes those decks any better in the current metagame than they already are.

It also could see some Legacy play, since it does present a pretty unique answer to True-Name Nemesis, since the ability doesn't have to target a creature to get rid of it. I think that's probably a fair use for the card, but it also likely limits it to one-of sideboard status for the Stoneforge Mystic decks. It could certainly excel there, so maybe foils are a better bet financially than regular copies.

Conclusion

With all of that in mind, I can't give this a ringing endorsement for Constructed play. It will find its way into decks in small numbers, but I don't think we're looking at a new pillar of the metagame here.

 

What do you think? Am I in the ballpark or totally off-base?

Let us know what you think!

 

 

JOU Spoiler: Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

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Does that say 100 on it? I think that says 100. Gain 100 life.

Planeswalkers' ultimate abilities should be very good and should essentially win you the game. I don't know if this will win the game, but it will certainly help you not lose the game, and that's important.

5 Mana is a little rough, unfortunately. Ryan Bushard suggested it would be better if his second ability were a -1 but he cost 2GW to play. I don't know whether that would make him too good.

Now, you're never supposed to evaluate a planeswalker in terms of their ultimate, so let's look at the other abilities.

The first +1 lends itself to cards like Kalonian Hydra or Corpsejack Menace. That is a lot of value. That much buff is very good turn after turn, but unfortunately it does little to protect Ajani besides raise his loyalty out of Boros Charm range.

A lot of talk about his second +1 lending it toward a sort of control deck has popped up online, but I am not sure I see it. You want to draw an extra card that is Supreme Verdict, or Sphinx's Revelation or Dissolve. You don't want to put a land, a Sphinx's Revelation and a Dissolve on the bottom of your library so you can draw an Aetherling. This draws cards, but not the kind of cards control wants.

This is probably pretty good in some kind of GW token granting deck. Reap What is Sown has never received any consideration in Constructed, though, and there is probably a reason. Post rotation, who knows? For now, you're not using this ajani to beat mono-black.

I think different types of players see different kinds of possibility in this card. If you are buying a lot of packs, this could be good because its presale price is likely to be way too high ("Jace's Law") and you can get rid of these before the price goes down. In a lot of ways, these are the worst kind of card for everyone else. Casual players will love that he gains 100 life and won't trade this for any amount. Competitive players will want to trade these away at the prerelease for its inflated price but likely won't be interested in picking them up. I am not pre-ordering this card, I will toy with it and see if any of my EDH decks want it (or if I have to make one - Uril, The Miststalker seems like a good candidate) and I am outing any I get in packs immediately.

Cool card. Lots of potential.

Don't preorder.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: What Not to Buylist

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Welcome back, readers.

This seems like an odd strategy, I know, to write an article about not buylisting my second week into a buylisting series, but I think this is an important topic to get out of the way up front. It doesn't do much good to know exactly how to buylist a card if you're not sure whether you should.

In this installment, I am going to discuss some alternative outs to buylisting and when to use them, as well as talk about the advantages of buylisting certain classes of cards. I also plan to get totally meta and talk about how I'm talking about it instead of actually just doing it. It should be a hoot, feel free to join me by doing what you're naturally inclined to do and continue reading.

Not All Cards Are Created Equal

I get cards in a variety of ways and they can fall anywhere on the spectrum from "this card was well taken care of" to "this card may have been used as toilet paper" and that is entirely out of your control. Not only that, some cards are more in demand than others--something else you can't control.

I don't know about you, but if someone wants to sell me cards, I do not refuse on the basis of what the card is. As long as the card is going to sell eventually and we can come to an agreement on price I will buy it. Sometimes that means offering less for a foreign card since your outs are limited. This can sometimes leave you with cards that are more difficult to deal with, but if the price is right, there's no reason to refuse. A lot of these things are out of your control.

However, what you can control is how you out these cards to maximize your profit. If you have multiple outs established you can easily sort the cards ahead of time based on how you want to out them. I won't discuss any kind of out that is so crazy that all of you wouldn't have the opportunity to do it. I'll also get a little bit into how I determine which avenue I will be using to out a particular card.

This can look more like an art than a science, but once you really get started doing this yourself, you'll establish your own rules. Remember, profit is profit, so don't waste too much time sweating a few pennies in the grand scheme of things. Your time is worth money, too, and we're going to work on some ways to save it so you can put your time to better use playing League of Warcraft or watching sportsball or whatever.

There are a few ways to do this, so I think I'll divide the cards up by category and discuss the out that goes with those cards. I don't know why I felt the need to discuss that with you. This isn't a democracy.

To that end, open up your mind holes and get ready to receive some advice.

Cards That Are Jacked. UP.

This is physically painful to look at.

You find cards like this all the time. Bent corners, scuffs, back whitening, dirt on the white border, animal bite marks. Even cards with the word "Darksteel" on them aren't indestructible, and while Magic the Gathering has been around since 1993, card sleeves have only been popular since 1998.

Even then, people play with cards unsleeved, drop them, write on them (how many of you have come across a Lion's Eye Diamond with "Mox" or "Lotus" written on it in sharpie?), spill drinks (Mountain Dew. Always Mountain Dew) on them and generally take poor care of them. Relax. It's not the end of the world.

Damaged cards still have value. People want cards to play with and like cards, players also fall on a spectrum. Some players want their deck to be all Korean foil cards from their first printing with Eric Klug alters of anime girls and giant robots on them.

At the other end of the spectrum you have people who play with the first 11 forests they find on a pile next to their sofa and would play with a card that was once on fire until it was extinguished with urine if it saved them 25 cents. The "I just want it cheaper" crowd has buying power, too, and they shop online.

Lots of buylists will take damaged cards. Some of them, very famously, will not.

As a quick aside, I want to bring up the curious case of Strike Zone. Strike Zone is a wonderful shop. If you buy a card from Strike Zone, you can be assured it will come Near Mint if it says it is Near Mint.

Strike Zone always processed my buylist orders quickly and over the years I developed a very good relationship with Chris, Dana and Dustin after seeing them at so many events. They are good people, and when Strike Zone is at a GP I will wait in a two hour line to give them first crack at my cards rather than go elsewhere first because I know I will get the absolute best price from them on the cards they'll take.

But that is on the cards they'll take. Strike Zone is notorious for being very picky about card condition. That is their thing. I don't begrudge them that thing, and I personally will sell to Strike Zone's online buylist because I know they pay well if you have cards in impeccable condition. People who have never sold to them before will jam a bunch of cards in a box and send it off only to get a lower offer than they'd anticipated. I will sell to Strike Zone and I will recommend others sell to them, but make sure you send them cards that are so minty that they could go in a Mojito.

Stores like Card Kingdom will take your slightly jacked-up cards but will pay you a smaller percentage. This is fine with me because I don't expect full value for the card. ABU Games will also buy less than Near Mint cards, but they ask that you enter the condition in. This is fine sometimes, but on Trader Tools this is done from the Trade Routes screen, and you have to enter the same condition for all copies of the card.

This is something we're working on, but in the mean time, it's kind of annoying. It's not ABU's fault, certainly, and it's not your fault the cards are jacked up. You didn't jack them up, did you? No, probably not. So while it's fair that you can expect to take a hit (usually 20-25%) on the card, I found a better out for damaged cards.

The Out - TCG Player

The great thing about TCG Player is that you get to determine the price you sell for. They have different categories for different conditions and you can grade the card and set the price yourself. While there are a lot of sellers jockeying to have the lowest Near Mint price, there is less competition for cards that are not Near Mint.

The best part? When people sort by lowest price on top, the cheaper card will appear at the top of the list. Some people set a "Near Mint only" filter, but you weren't getting that sale with your beat up card anyway. Therefore the people who are actively seeking a cheaper copy will see your cheaper copy first. If they don't filter out played cards, they'll see yours.

The best part? Sometimes you can list damaged cards for literally one penny less than Near Mint and you'll see first by virtue of being cheapest. Now, a lot of people will say "for one penny more I can get a better condition card--why would I buy a damaged one?" but you don't need to appeal to everyone. You need to appeal to one cheapskate only and after that, the card is his problem.

As long as you grade the card accurately per the terms TCG Player specifies you won't get complaints about the condition, just a thank you for being so affordable. Instead of taking a 25% hit on a buylist, you sold the card for literally a penny less than Near Mint. Now those are good margins.

Cards with Low Spread

You're all Insiders, I have to assume you know what spread is. I know MaRo says "assume the people reading your article have never read anything you've written and are unfamiliar with the subject matter" or something to that effect, and he's a good guy to emulate, but come on. You know what spread is.

It's the difference between the highest buylist price and the lowest sales price as a percentage of the sales price. Okay, so I just said what it was anyway. Trader Tools calculates spread for you, so I like to use mtg.gg to look up card prices because I find price and spread is more useful to know than just price.

The Out - TCG Player

TCG Player is a great out for cards that are close in value to the buylist price. Generally there is a calculus I use to eyeball a card and see if I should sell on TCG Player or just buylist it. Let's look at a few examples.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Amulet of Vigor
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Cobra

I don't sell for TCG Mid, I sell for TCG Low. Generally, the difference between Low and Mid almost doesn't exist--and is a virtual difference based on how much of the cost is based on shipping and how much is based on the card.

I don't charge shipping so that if they buy more than one card from me, I don't lose money since the shipping cost is only applied once per order. So I have to pay $0.45 for a stamp out of my own pocket (I just charge $0.45 more for the card and it works out). TCG Player charges $0.50 flat fee per sale plus a 10% fee. This is kind of steep on cheap cards since the $0.50 flat fee can be more than the 10% is.

So if you look at the price of a card on TCG Mid and subtract $1 plus another 10% and that's lower than the buylist price, it's obvious that you just buylist it. In the case of Lotus Cobra, I'm going to just buylist it. If the card is under $10 I can glance at the spread and decide pretty quickly if it's worth listing on TCG Player and waiting.

In the case of Amulet of Vigor, I'll get twice as much money selling on TCG Player even after I subtract the fees and the cost of the stamp. A high spread (67% in this case) means that it's not worth buylisting.

Be careful, though, because a high spread is also an indication that dealer confidence is low and the card might not sell on TCG Player. Go through your inventory often, and if something sits for weeks, ship it to a buylist before the buylist offers even less. Still, I have two playsets of Amulet of Vigor and playsets sell well and the cheapest playset sells even better.

There is no hard cutoff number, but if the spread is above 50% you are reasonably assured that selling for retail is the play. A tight spread means that it isn't worth the hassle and you should just buylist the card and be done with it.

Foreign Cards

Sweet pick-up! ....Right?

I don't refuse to buy foreign cards, but sometimes I will pay less for them. Not only do a lot of players want to be able to read their cards and prefer their mother tongue, dealers feel the same way you likely do about them. They are not inclined to incur the hardship of having cards that are difficult to move. You cannot list a foreign card on TCG Player and you can't sell it to most online buylists. This can make them a pain to deal with.

The Out - It Depends

There are several ways I have found for dealing with foreign cards. The first is to trade them off. When you deal with someone face to face they will be fully apprised of the fact that the card is foreign. Some people prefer certain languages (I have a personal weakness for cards in German and have been known to trade up at a premium to get them) and some people don't care and just want a playable copy of the card that they can use.

If you're going to find "that guy" to give you that premium, you'll have to do it via trading. I bought a ton of foreign and foil stuff for very cheap because someone wanted rid of it and I've been slowly trading it off, to great effect. It takes a while, but having a binder full of foreign cards is better than lighting money on fire.

Other outs like trading them away on a site like MOTL are an avenue worth exploring. I don't have any experience with MOTL specifically, but Facebook groups, Pucatrade and other trade sites can be potential future avenues for foreign cards. It's possible we'll be able to list foreign cards on TCG Player soon, but that's not possible right now.

While it's too laborious and annoying for me to sell on eBay right now, you are able to sell foreign cards there. It's much slower to list cards for sale on eBay but if you have a decent card, you can get rid of it very quickly and easily that way. An eBay shopper knows exactly what they're getting and some cards may even command a premium depending on how playable they are and whether they're foil.

Finally, buylisting in person is a possibility. Some stores will take foreign cards for the same price as English. In Montreal, I watched Ryan Bushard buy underpriced foreign cards from one dealer who was pricing them to move and take them to another dealer who paid the same as English prices for foreign cards. He made a few hundred dollars in an afternoon simply picking up piles on one table and moving them to another.

Arbitrage is a beautiful form of finance and if you're savvy enough, you can make quite a bit exploiting two opposing attitudes toward foreign cards. Buylisting at a GP or similar event is a good way to potentially out foreign cards that aren't eligible for redemption on online buylists.

There Are Probably More

I am sure a few of you have other outs you have discovered as the ideal way to deal with certain classifications of cards that aren't traditionally best sent to electronic buylists. Feel free to share your knowledge in the comments section.

I sell lots of damaged cards for a discount out of the case I run at my LGS. I include foreign cards in grab bag lots and "leave two rares and take one" boxes. I trade high spread cards into low or negative spread cards at events where I go to trade. Got your own ideas? Let's hear them!

See you next week.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, SellingTagged , 4 Comments on Insider: What Not to Buylist

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Boros Burn in Milwaukee

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As I mulligained to four in the deciding game of my first round in last Sunday's Legacy Open, Louis Kaplan walked by and asked if my deck ever doesn't shit on me. When I had played against Louis on Saturday I couldn't find a Mountain or Sacred Foundry to save my life, so I didn't have much of an argument for him. I definitely couldn't change his mind if he saw my opponent Cabal Therapy away three copies of Brainstorm from my hand on turn one of the following round. Regardless of some run-bads, I did manage a 7-3 finish in the Standard portion. More importantly, I was one of the players with a 7-3 record who actually made top 64. In a 600+ player tournament, that's far from a guarantee.

I made a few updates since I last published a list, registering this 75:

Boros Burn

creatures

4 Chandra's Phoenix
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Ash Zealot

spells

4 Shock
4 Searing Blood
4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
2 Chained to the Rocks
4 Boros Charm
2 Warleader's Helix

lands

4 Mutavault
2 Boros Guildgate
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Temple of Triumph
10 Mountain

sideboard

2 Warleader's Helix
2 Chained to the Rocks
2 Burning Earth
3 Mizzium Mortars
4 Skullcrack
2 Toil // Trouble

Boros Burn

I've done a lot of toying with the manabase while playing with this deck and Red Devotion, and I'm finally settled on this configuration. Off-color scrylands hurt the deck's tempo too much and 22 and 23-land versions usually felt a bit light. For this tournament I played nine Mountains with matching art and one oddball to see how often the 24th land was problematic. I was only flooded twice over the course of the tournament, and I won one such game. Interestingly, I drew the "marked" Mountain in the game that I won despite being flooded and didn't draw it in the game that I lost due to being flooded. Conversely, I lost three games due to not drawing enough untapped lands. All three were in matches that I lost. Obviously ten rounds of Magic isn't an overwhelming statistic, but the 24-land version has been testing better overall.

The other notable change is the maindecking of Boros Charm over Skullcrack. While they're both for the same matchups, Skullcrack is more for corner-cases and Boros Charm just does more in the matchups where neither card is ideal. Of course, Boros Charm has been in the maindeck of literally everyone else's list for as long as they've played the deck, but I believe it's worth reporting that I tried the alternative and went back.

My tournament went like this:
Round 1: 2-1 vs. Jund Monsters
Round 2: 1-2 vs. Naya Cards
Round 3: 2-0 vs. Grixis Hidden Strings
Round 4: 2-0 vs. Selesnya Aggro
Round 5: 2-1 vs. Owen Turtenwald on Black Devotion
Round 6: 2-1 vs. Black Devotion (game three was on camera)
Round 7: 0-2 vs. Gruul Midrange
Round 8: 0-2 vs. Blue Devotion
Round 9: 2-1 vs. Uw Devotion
Round 10: 2-0 vs. Jund Monsters

The most satisfying part of this tournament experience was finally winning all of my matches against Black Devotion in a live event. It was a bit odd completing dodging the control decks, but I wouldn't expect to play against them more than once or twice in a given Open or PTQ.

The Naya deck that I lost to in round two was pretty odd. It wasn't hexproof and I didn't see any Brave The Elements, but it could have very well been Brad Nelson's list on iffy draws. One of the games that I lost was to mulligaining and the other was to keeping a hand with two Warleader's Helix and missing enough land drops for a turn six Ghor-Clan Rampager to gain Unflinching Courage and kill me to death.

I had more control over my loss to the Gruul deck I played in round seven. Basically, things boiled down to me letting a Stormbreath Dragon get +4/+4 via a Rampager followed by Blooding me to death. I was on 12 and thought that Warleader's Helixing a Courser of Kruphix to get in some damage would matter more double Lightning Strike-ing the Dragon. Looking back, that play was really greedy. Interestingly, the Courser would still be lethal with the Rampager and the Blood in this scenario if I didn't block with my Young Pyromancer tokens, but I hope that I'd be able to figure that one out. My loss in game two of this match was considerably more embarrassing. The long and short of it is that Fanatic of Xenagos has trample and I made a terrible block.

The loss in round eight was the one I mentioned earlier against Louis. In game one my manabase of Boros Guildgate, Temple of Triumph and Mutavault couldn't support the Chained to the Rocks in my hand. In game two I kept this opener:

Louis played Cloudfin Raptor on turn one and I played Young Pyromancer on turn two. When his second turn consisted of playing Island and passing, I concluded that he was pretty likely to have a Rapid Hybridization. I attacked anyway with the Pyromancer and he had it. He also had Dispel when I Lightning Striked the Frog. I had considered double Rapid before making the attack, and in all honesty I probably should've just sat back. From that point I never drew another land and was therefor only ever able to cast one spell per turn. A second might have gotten me back into this game despite my mistake, but the absence of one might have actually caused me to lose even if I didn't put my Pyromancer in jeopardy.

The long and short of the above is that I feel like I was playing a list that gave me a very good chance at success against the field I played against. Young Pyromancer was an all-star all day. I easily made 20+ tokens on the day and was easily able to overwhelm creature decks, which I believe is substantially more difficult with the Blood Crypt version of Burn.

Going forward I would continue to play this 75 until Journey into Nyx launches. That said, there's only about a month until that happens. The biggest things I'll be looking for are reasons to play Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx or the Blue/Red Scryland. Namely, I'll be looking at double-colored creatures and burn spells. I could see Turn // Burn and Ral Zarek being playable over Chained to the Rocks and Warleader's Helix, but it would likely take at least one more good reason to be blue. At any rate, we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

During my match on camera Patrick Sullivan went over the list of reasons not to play Young Pryomancer- namely cards that are problematic for tokens. The biggest counterpoint to this is that you'll really wish you had him when you have to point burn spells at creatures in order to survive and race. I played ten rounds against decks that Young Pyromancer was gas against this weekend. In particular, he makes the Monsters matchups dramatically better. If you're looking to beat them, then I couldn't recommend my list strongly enough. If you pick it up, I hope that it treats you well.

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf

Insider: Things to Remember During Spoiler Season

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1. Journey into Nyx is a small third set, so there will be fewer copies of cards from it on the market than cards from Born of the Gods or Theros. This means that staple cards from this set are likely to be more valuable than cards from other sets in the block. After all, only a fraction of Journey packs will be opened in drafts compared to Born and Theros (to be specific, approximately twice as much Born of the Gods and six times as much Theros will be drafted compared to Journey into Nyx). If there are competitive cards in the set, picking them up at their floors will likely result in the largest gains of Standard pickups.

2. Be cognizant of the fact that prerelease hype will inflate the vast majority of cards above realistic values. For every Bonfire of the Damned and Sphinx's Revelation, there are ten Niv-Mizzet Dracogeniuses or Armada Wurms. You should have a really good reason if you’re going to get in on a preorder spec.

To illustrate this, check out the below graphs tracking the prices for the rares and mythics in each of the sets from last year’s block.

RTR  GTC

DGM

Yes, you can point to individual cards from these sets that spiked, but unless you were on those cards specifically, you straight-up lost money. Please don’t just preorder every card that looks like it will be good in your format of choice. In most instances, you’ll be able to get it cheaper in just a few weeks. If you are going to preorder something, you should have a clear reason why the card is underpriced and truly considered the history of preorder specs. Don’t throw your money away.

3. Remember points one and two during the summer doldrums, when prices are lowest and hype is passed. I’ll be looking closely at Journey into Nyx (in addition to Theros and Born of the Gods) during that time, as playable cards from spring sets are most likely to blow up big during the fall.

4. Once I have sold out of Theros cards shortly after the release of the fall set, I’ll be keeping an eye out for the floor on all of Theros block, but especially Journey into Nyx. Check out the trajectories of the 2011 and 2012 spring sets, New Phyrexia and Avacyn Restored.

NPH AVR

Each of these sets declined the summer following release, spiked at the release of the following fall set, then reached their floors the next summer, close to rotation. However, after a couple years, both sets have climbed back toward preorder levels, with New Phyrexia even surpassing them. This is due the high number of eternal-playable cards in NPH, but AVR shows us that casual cards can hold their own, too.

5. This suggests that the best time to acquire eternal-playable Return to Ravnica block cards is this summer. Watch for the floors on cards like Abrupt Decay, Supreme Verdict, and Detention Sphere. They’re going to hit a low point, and then they will steadily increase until a reprint or a similar, better card is printed.

6. Don’t stop at eternal staples from Return to Ravnica block. A big reason Avacyn Restored has gained back so much value is because of hugely popular casual cards. Cards to keep an eye on from RTR block include Chromatic Lantern, the primordials, and Plasm Capture. They may have failed in Standard, but the aforementioned Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius and Armada Wurm are now dirt cheap and flashy enough to have long-term casual appeal. Progenitor Mimic, Savageborn Hydra, and Angel of Serenity will all likely grow over time.

Be it for eternal or casual cards, history shows that this summer will be the floor for most RTR block cards, so act accordingly.

7. Because Standard PTQ season is over, it’s unlikely that Standard-only cards will see a lot of movement until after rotation. I’ll be evaluating Standard-playable cards with less consideration of how they play with Return to Ravnica staples and more how they play with Theros block cards and the still-unrevealed fall set. Keep in mind that the big winner of last rotation was Nightveil Specter—not exactly a card that made people think “Standard staple.”

8. This is exactly why Mana Bloom is a bad spec despite it being cute with Journey Into Nyx’s constellation mechanic. But just because it’s a bad spec doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be digging your copies out of your bulk box—I was definitely among those who got in 25-cent copies immediately leading up to Theros spoilers, and I am thrilled that I might be getting out at a profit now. Sell into the hype, but if you have zero copies, you really should leave it that way.

9. As an aside, situations like we’re seeing with Mana Bloom—not to mention the whole MTG economy for the last several months—make me less and less willing to bulk out. Bulk always has a floor value, so unless you are looking at the absolute dregs of Magic cards, I feel like it’s short-sighted to sell bulk rares. Leonin Arbiter was bulk its entire time in Standard and stayed that way until not too long ago, and look at it now:
[cardimage cardname='Leonin Arbiter']

10. You don’t have to preorder anything. I almost never do. There are plenty of opportunities out there, and everybody is looking at the new cards. Zig left while everyone else zags right and you will have a better chance at profiting.

11. I want this article to go up to eleven, so I’ll close by reiterating that prices are hyped right now. Abrupt Decay was immediately identified as a Legacy-, Modern-, and Standard-playable card, and that has panned out almost to the extent that hype dictated. Preorders reached as high as $20 for this fall-set rare, and you’d think that would seem reasonable given that the card’s pedigree has really panned out. And yet, Abrupt Decay was available within a month of its release at half its preorder price, and fell all the way to $5 two months after its release. Keep that in mind this preorder season.

AbruptDecay

 

(And I shouldn't need to say it, but Abrupt Decay is on its way up, too. Be on the lookout for cheap copies.)

Insider: True Speculation

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Welcome back readers and speculators!

Today's article was inspired by QS's own QED who brought the concept of true speculation up in the forums. After reading it and thinking about it, I wrote my response which I think deserves a stronger explanation (hence this article). It also helps that it's difficult to come up with article ideas sometimes, so I latched onto this one.

The basic issue brought to light is that with the constantly expanding MTG player base more and more people are speculating now. This has muddied the waters about the term "speculator" itself.

In the Magic community, "speculator" often carries negative connotations. These are related to the people who claim to be speculating but are actually just looking for price discrepancies (certainly one side of MTG finance) or the "shark traders" you see at many big events.

However, the true definition of speculating is (courtesy of Webster's):

  • Activity in which someone buys and sells things (such as stocks or pieces of property) in the hope of making a large profit but with the risk of a large loss.
  • Ideas or guesses about something that is not known.

Neither of these two activities is the same as looking for price discrepancies.

To truly speculate on a card, one must evaluate its potential, compare said potential (and thus future price) with its current price, and assume the risk of one's evaluation being incorrect by acquiring said card(s). The difference between a good and bad speculator is their ability to evaluate potentials (no matter what the item being speculated on is).

We saw this a lot back in America's earlier days. Gold speculation was rampant and people from the east coast were buying up land looking for gold out west. More often than not they failed miserably (the occasional few that hit fueled the gold lust), primarily because many had little to no knowledge about what they were trying to speculate on. Everyone assumed that gold could be anywhere, whereas modern day geologists would tend to disagree.

Rampant Speculation

QED's concern is that we are entering this phase of the game. People are buying up cards left and right with little to no reasoning behind it and when one of the new prices sticks, they cry. Nobody wants to miss out on the next bulk rare that jumps to $5, so they speculate more and keep feeding the machine.

This type of player is not a true speculator as they haven't completed step 1 of the process (evaluation of said item) and just went straight to step 3 (acquisition). For ease of discussion we'll call these people "redditulators," because I see a lot of this type of buying show up on reddit (I don't want this to be a derogatory term, so hopefully it doesn't come off that way).

However, this rampant buying at the slightest suggestion leads to other issues. One, it prevents some from actually speculating because their targets disappear rapidly off the internet.

Even worse, it allows unscrupulous people to manipulate the market by picking up bad rares, herding the sheep into buying the remaining copies to create artificial demand, and then unloading their own copies at a profit. When this happens it obviously gives "speculators" a bad name.

The Good News...

There's not really any way to stem the tide of new players who want to buy cards en masse and hope to hit the price lottery. But like many smart people during the Gold Rush did, we can still make good profits off of this change.

Do you know who got rich when people started hunting for gold out west? The railroads who brought them there, the store owners who provided food and supplies, the saloon owners who provided alcohol and companionship. Unfortunately, selling alcohol requires a lot of licenses and selling companionship is outright illegal in most places, so we'll just stick to being the suppliers of the cards themselves.

Many of our store owners have mentioned how amazing pre-selling cards is because players "lock in" a price early in the hopes that they are getting the card cheaper than when it'll hit the market (or sometimes securing copies they feel they need immediately). But 99% of the time they overpay for said cards.

It's the reason even "bulk" rares pre-sell for $0.5-0.75 each and then upon release tend to plummet to bulk status. Every new set I see more and more pre-sales on eBay which just goes to show many people have realized the insatiable appetite of the "redditulators" can be turned into a lucrative profit.

The downside will be when too many people jump on this bandwagon and keep undercutting each other to sell out quickly. Another downside is that many sites with "buyer protection" allow the purchaser to just cancel their order and get their money back. Thus, these "redditulators" are now allowed to get free "put options" on any cards they want at no risk to themselves.

This is actually the sole reason I don't bother to pre-sell anything. I don't want to buy six cases in order to meet pre-sale numbers only to have a lot of the profits eliminated and be forced to find outs for the cards to cover initial costs.

Back to regular sales, I would never limit the number of a card someone can buy from me save if it exceeds the total number I have available. The reason is that I don't put cards up for sale that I've evaluated as under-priced unless they have gained enough that I find it acceptable to lock in some profits now.

Unfortunately this idea works best when you aren't a store. The store that never has any stock of cards they think will go up is the store that loses a lot of sales to people trying to speculate or "redditulate".

The other beauty is that people will pay more for something if they can buy a lot at once (usually). When buying a card en masse, people will pay a little bit more if they can order 20 copies from a store as opposed to four copies from five stores because they understand that shipping costs add up. I've done this on several occasions for my personal specs so I know it's a viable thought.

Supplying "redditulators" with cards is fine. However, and I want to stress this heavily, it's not okay to use these types of players to create artificial demand for a spec so that you can sell out for a good profit while they are left holding the bag.

I understand that some people might not see an issue with this (these tend to be the same people who trade with the mindset of "well they should know the value of their own cards") because the "redditulators" have the option to not buy and actually consider the card first--but even the smartest speculators can get caught up in hype when they see dollar signs.

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David Schumann

David started playing Magic in the days of Fifth Edition, with a hiatus between Judgment to Shards. He's been playing Commander since 2009 and Legacy since 2010.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider8 Comments on Insider: True Speculation

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Insider: [MTGO] Portfolio Updates and Upcoming Projects

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Greetings MTGO investors!

Today, I'll give you an overview of what happened in my MTGO portfolio the past five to seven weeks. We'll see that this period of time gave me mixed results with my positions. Some cards rose faster that expected, and in such cases profits need to be taken for healthy portfolio growth.

On the redemption side, I finally sold my last two digital sets of Theros, for a little bit less than I wanted but still at a decent price. This is definitely a good alternative to selling tix only.

Finally, I'll talk about two projects that I'm working on. I like experimenting and testing concepts, and sharing my thoughts with the QS community. The first project is two weeks away from being completed, and will, I think, constitute a very interesting series of articles. The other one is something I am about to start soon.

Portfolio Review

Vintage Specs

Coming back to my article about Vintage on MTGO, things are moving slowly. As of now, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Bazaar of Baghdad, Mana Vault and Goblin Welder are on the rise. Whereas Tolarian Academy, Metalworker and Oath of Druids are slightly dropping, the other cards remaining pretty much stable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar of Baghdad
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Vault

There was an error retrieving a chart for Metalworker
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Druids

I'm really not considering selling anything for the moment, but it's always good to keep an eye on it. As we are getting closer to the release of VMA, spoilers will pop up soon and might influence the trend of some of these cards and others. I'll try to be as reactive as possible, whether buying or selling.

If you are thinking about buying some of these Vintage staples, to speculate or to play, you may want to wait for the next set to be released. Journey Into Nyx release events should constitute a low point to acquire your favorite Vintage cards, and by then we may have more info about reprints in VMA.

I still believe that lower price-tag cards such as Lodestone Golem, Phyrexian Revoker and Mental Misstep are very good pickups from the perspective of the Vintage format online.

I also invite you to read or re-read Matt's article from last week about the likelihood of reprints in Vintage Masters and try to get a better idea of potential risks inherent to speculating of the Vintage set on MTGO.

Lastly, if you're taking speculative positions here, think about your target, in terms of time and tix. We don't really know how popular the VMA drafts and the subsequent Vintage format online will be. I'll be looking to sell most of my Vintage specs around the release events or a little bit after, as more players may want to gather Vintage staples to enjoy some games. If the format attracts players, prices may keep going up, but once passed the excitement of the first weeks, who knows where this will head to.

Modern Specs

Modern prices really act like a roller coaster and not every card is in the same train. Some cards have frequent and well defined variations, such as Serra Ascendant or Pyromancer Ascension. Others, like Mindbreak Trap or Lotus Cobra, oscillate less and over a longer period of time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serra Ascendant
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Cobra

Taking My Profit From Successful Positions

I have taken several Modern positions since the beginning of the year. I have even invested twice on the same cards in barely three months. Modern season is for sure an inevitable end to all of my Modern specs, however. When cards reach or break their previous peaks, it's probably a good time to sell and not to be too greedy.

Recently, Serra Ascendant almost reached its peak, and Phantasmal Image and Steel Overseer broke their Modern era peak two and half weeks ago and last week, respectively. I have sold all of these three cards at this point. These are great examples of quick returns based on Modern fluctuations. In less than a month, that's about a 60% net profits, enough to pay one or two months of QS insider with only 40 or so tix invested.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phantasmal Image
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Steel Overseer

The other cards that are still on the rise, and that I am watching closely, include Arcbound Ravager, Gifts Ungiven, Kataki, War's Wage and Pact of Negation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pact of Negation
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Kataki, War's Wage

Sure, not all my positions behaved the same way. However, I encourage you to sell your positions and take your profits whenever a card has increased to reasonable expectations. Especially since we are not yet into the Modern season, most prices are still bound to fluctuate again according to their previous floor and peak.

Watching the Momentum

A couple of cards are finally and slowly gaining momentum. Lotus Cobra, Mindbreak Trap, Iona, Shield of Emeria, Sundering Titan, Linvala, Keeper of Silence and Oblivion Stone are taking off.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Iona, Shield of Emeria
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Oblivion Stone

Since these cards seem less subject to short-term variations, I would expect them to keep rising steadily until the Modern season proper. At this point, some of these cards are a rather far way from their peak, and you could even consider buying more.

Disappointing Positions

Disappointing is probably a little bit harsh. Since I bought these cards, they were mostly flat or dipped a little bit. Overall, that's not necessarily a big surprise since they didn't not perform well at the Modern PT and did not trust the top places at GPs or events online.

Among them, Grim Lavamancer, Goblin Guide, Summoner's Pact, Figure of Destiny or Bloodghast. No need to panic, Modern season this summer is my target. Actually, if some of these cards, or others, are dipping a little bit they might represent an opportunity for me to reinforce my positions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Lavamancer
 
There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodghast

Overall Action Plan

Modern is a pretty dynamic format for speculators, creating a lot of opportunities.

As said above, I am still working on my discipline to sell more often when a decent profit is there, and move on to the next opportunity. Cards have their own fluctuations cycles, which is dependent on other factors, such as flashback drafts for instance. Take advantage of these ups and downs and even with small profits per jump from one position to another you will grow your bankroll.

Selling Full Sets

Half way between redeeming sets and selling tix, selling digital complete sets is something I was experimenting with since last December. I bought four sets of Theros, for 97.8 tix each, and was trying to sell them on eBay. I sold two sets in February for $117 per set, $117 for 97.8, pretty sweet. Since then, nothing, while I was slowly decreasing the price of my sets down to $125.

Last month, I decided to list the two last sets at $115. I wanted to complete this and was unwilling to wait more. This price was by far the best for a Theros set. Redeemed Theros sets usually sell for about $165. In my case, if you purchased my digital sets for $115, you only have to add $25+$3 to finally get your paper cards, no less, no more. That's a $148 for a Theros set!

So what do I have left you're asking? Minus eBay and Paypal fees, I'm still left with a little more than $99. Still, that's $1.01/tix.

I also remember that when I was looking up the buy list price for a complete THS set, SSG and other stores were offering close to $130. With the redemption cost and shipping cost, you're still more than likely to convert your tix around $1/tix or more.

To conclude, selling digital or redeemed complete sets is clearly a viable indirect alternative to selling tix. It will require more time, no doubt about it, but it's definitely worth it. If you can get a deal with your LGS and redeem many sets at once, this can become easier and more profitable.

Future Articles and Projects

Nine Months of a Portfolio

Almost nine months ago, I started an investment project with some friends. Basically, we pooled some cash into a single portfolio that I would manage for about nine months. I would keep a defined percentage of the benefits and distribute the rest.

This experience is about to end and I'll reveal all numbers, cards, percentages, graphs, etc… over a series of several articles.

This project was not only successful because it ended up positive, but also because it was a full portfolio management from A to Z (cash to tix to cards to tix to cash), with a beginning and an end.

I invested over hundreds of cards in different categories: Standard, Modern, Redemption sets, Quick flips… There will be a lot of data and numbers to be analyzed and discussed. Retrospectively, I'll talk about several things that could have been done differently and would have improved the strategy and maximized profits.

100 Tix, 1 Year

The next experiment I'm going to conduct is entitled "100 tix, 1 year". The challenge is simple. I'll give myself 100 tix on a fresh new account and one year to see how I can perform in these conditions.

These conditions represent a fresh start for small bankroll. This new account will have no previous ongoing credits from any bots.

I will create a Twitter account specifically dedicated to this project where people will be able to follow me. I'll post all my transactions in real time. I'll probably make a little report in some of my articles here at QS every two months or so.

 

Thank you for reading!

Sylvain Lehoux

MTGJOU Spoiler Spotlight: Keranos, God of Storms

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Check out the Journey Into Nyx Spoilers on our official [JOU] Mini-Site!


The newest god, and another powerful effect. But just how powerful?
The newest god, and another powerful effect. But just how powerful?

 

We've now seen another of the gods from Journey into Nyx, and again we aren't disappointed. Much like his R/W buddy, Keranos is extremely powerful. There's no that all the gods have delivered so far (okay, maybe not Ephara), and Keranos is no exception.

So let's break down his abilities:

Indestructible: Sure, obviously awesome.

Devotion count needed: Probably more difficult in U/R since the color-intensive giant Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius lends himself to the Control Deck Finisher role, something that Aetherling is pretty much always better at.

How does he compare to Kruphix, the Simic God?

Revealing cards: This, of course, is where the cards shines. In fact, I'm pretty sure it's insane. Remember the UWR Control decks that are very similar to their Esper brethren but have access to Mizzium Mortars and Stormbreath Dragon? That's where this card is going to shine. It does something in every matchup, which is why it's so great. Control matchup? Drawing extra cards is nuts, not to mention the damage to the face can actually add up quickly since these matches go so long. Creature matchups? Being able to nail their creatures for three is huge.

Outside of that deck, this is the sort of card that can easily top out a Burn or tempo deck. After all, being able to use both Boros Reckoner and Frostburn Weird means it's not impossible to trigger the devotion.

Like I said, all the gods so far have had powerful effects, but I'm not sure if there's one more flexible than this, which means it can go into a wide variety of decks.

How does this compare to Iroas, the Boros god? Here's our review.

JOU Spoiler – 4/7 & 4/8: Dictate of Kruphix and 10 More

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If Eidolon of Blooms as everyone is no doubt calling it doesn't turn out to be the constellation card Gotham City deserves, cards like Underworld Coinsmith give me some hope. I like this guy in my Oloro EDH deck and casuals will like another WB cleric. I think he's silly in Limited but I don't see him impacting Standard with the enchantments we have right now. Still, I have never been one to sneeze at a bear with a good triggered ability. If only we had more time to play him alongside extort. Still, if they lost a life and you gained a life, he would be more likely to see play. As it is he's a fragile, awkward dude with enchantmentfall of "gain 1 life" and I have seen better cards.

Fun! The biggest problem people had with Howling Mine was that your opponent drew first. This allows you to do make sure you play it at their end step and benefit from drawing first. I am sure there are other cute things you can do like make them draw and play Notion Thief but I imagine this is mostly just a better Howling Mine a lot of the time. This goes in Nekusar decks, so snag cheap foils if you can.

Durdle monster. I like his ability but since I don't like his mana cost or his lack of synergy with his ability I think this is a bulk rare. This makes me want a 3 mana 2/2 with a Constellation ability that Doom Blades a dude, and this also makes me think I won't get it.

This. I LIKE this. Furnace of Rath and similar effects sell very well. This being a combat trick is even better. Being able to play this at their end step and therefore make sure you get to benefit from it first, or spoil their combat math makes this an awesome pickup. Effects like this are coveted by EDH and casual players as well and this may be the best they've printed.

Will this be Emrakul, The Aeons Torn or Mondronen Shaman? Casuals like hydras, but we are in a bit of a hydra glut right now and that wisdom only applies to great hydras. I like this in my Vorel EDH deck, but I don't think a deck like Naya wants it when other hydras double their counters for free. Bulk rare, I bet.

Is this Baneslayer Angel or Seraph of Dawn? This is obviously nutso in Limited. The question is will this be good enough that you want to put the work into making it a Baneslayer in constructed formats or will this be another Fabled Hero - a card oozing with potential and so close to a Mirran Crusader with upside but ultimately another bulk rare? I am not all that hopeful that this card will get there. Another one of those odd cases where the card is a 5 Star first pick in Limited but doesn't crack the roster in Constructed. Still, I won't be at all surprised if someone does break this, I just don't know in what archetype it will be good.

5UU - You win the game. OK, maybe not in all Limited games considering you likely have 3 or 4 islands, but, still. Sea God's Revenge was a 1st pick and this can potentially do more work than that. Still, I'd have to play some games with it. If they have a pile of 5 toughness guys and your 4 Islands can't get it done, this may be underwhelming even in Limited. I can't think of a deck that wants this in Constructed.

In the same cycle as Scourge of Fleets comes a card that is much better. It has evasion and has an ability that is never wasted. If they have a creature you want to remove with more toughness than you have Mountains, you can target the face. This isn't wiping a board like Scourge, but it's doing something that we've liked on other dragons in the past. Still, probably not financially relevant. Non-mythic and a poor man's Bogardan Hellkite. Not super jazzed, I just know I'll lose a game or two to this at the prerelease.

Not Damnation, but is it a good enough Wrath to see play? EDH wants this, I think, although I would be hard pressed to cut Decree of Pain for it and in Theros block it kills like 25% of the creatures. Post rotation standard it gets even worse as we lose all of Ravnica block's non-enchantment creatures. This is a lot of mana to pay for an ineffective wrath.

This is a great card. [cardAdaptive Automaton[/card] is worth more than you'd expect, and this seems even better. EDH, casual, Limited; hell, even decks with Pack Rats will want this guy. If the foil presells for 2x the non-foil copy, go deep. This is a card that appeals very broadly and that is a good thing financially.

godsend nyx

True Name Nemesis can't block! Unfortunately, this doesn't help you deal with Pack Rat or Elspeth's tokens or anything truly annoying. I think this card is interesting and it will be fun to see where it fits in to the metagame, but since I don't see it unseating Batterskull or Umezawa's Jitte in the near future, it's likely going to depend on how much play it sees in formats where we can't go get it with Stoneforge Mystic. This may be better on a blocker than an attacking creature, which is very interesting. This card has a lot of potential but as the only non-god mythic spoiled, it may only serve to make us more excited about better mythics later.

JOU Spoiler – Keranos, God of Storms

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Check out the Journey Into Nyx Spoilers on our official [JOU] Mini-Site!


This cycle of Gods is really shaping up.

In a vacuum I really like Keranos an awful lot. But I feel like this is a card like Phenax and it probably will suffer due to a lack of a deck to go in.

How does this compare to Iroas, the Boros god? Here's our review.

Is it Steam Augury's time to shine?

This is a card with very good abilities but in colors where the best cards are instants and sorceries. You can build a Blistercoil Weird, Steamcore Weird, Hypersonic Dragon burn deck, maybe? Ral Zarek helps switch him on, I guess. Still, it seems like you might just want him as a crazy enchantment and don't care about having him be a creature because he doesn't need to attack to ruin their day.

The card advantage from this and the reach generated by this is insane. Izzet is finally getting a good card, which makes me hopeful for Kruphix. Could this buoy cards like Steam Augury, Counterflux and Niv Mizzet, Dracogenius? It is hard to tell, but this is a card that makes me very excited for the set.

What about Kruphix? Find our spoiler review right here.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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