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Insider: Penny Stock Picks with Kelly

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In the stock market, penny stocks are cheap, probably-junk securities that you get on the hope that they move up a few cents and show you a profit. They're an alluring strategy in the stock market because you can get a big volume of them. For one share of Apple, you could score well over 5,000 shares of a junk medical-science company that may be on the verge of a huge patent. If your shares go up, they go UP. We look at penny stocks in Magic the same way; these are the gambits that you stock up on with hopes of big payoffs.

I don't normally pick up these kinds of cards, because I use The System and only grab things that I can resell for... something. Kelly, on the other hand, has a butchness when it comes to buying up big quantities of junk cards. He's been proven right enough on enough small cards that it's worth paying attention to him. This week, I've consulted with him and I'll be presenting a list of cards that we think are worth picking up on a long shot. Some articles are "teach you to fish" articles; this one is just a bushel of tasty mackerel. These are the cards we predict will see appreciation in Standard and Block.

Avacyn's Collar

1 is the right cost for this card, especially with Trinket Mage skulking around. This card is contingent on there being a Humans deck, but if there is, oh wow is this sharp. You can play this on the first turn, play someone from the Kingdom of Man on the second turn, then equip and attack. Vigilance and the extra point of power mean that your guys hit harder and they can sit back on defense, too. Do you trade your 2/2 for their 3/2, knowing they'll get a Spirit token out of it? Do you let it hit you, even though the Vigilance means that you can't profitably attack back? These kind of situations are great for the Humans player. Even if they trade out, they can put the Collar onto the Spirit token and make a 2/1 Vigilant flier.

This kind of reminds me of Basilisk Collar because it's a huge stack of value in a cheap Equipment. It dissuades people from blocking and really messes up combat.

Mentor of the Meek

In Block, the Mentor has seen play in R/W token decks. Casting Gather the Townsfolk with enough to get this through for drawing is great. It turns that Doomed Traveler into a lategame draw spell. Kelly and I both like this card, especially when Scars isn't part of the picture any more. The best draw for Mentor right now is that it's super cheap to buy.

Ghoulcaller's Chant

Zombies is a real thing right now and it will continue to be a real thing, both in Block and Standard. While Gravecrawler comes back on his own, there are enough other zombies that you'll want to pull back with this. Diregraf Captain is a must-kill and this brings him and a friend back when you need them. Kelly says that the hot pickup on this card is the foil version, and I'm inclined to agree. When we take a broader look at things, Zombies are going to be here for years to come. People want recursion and this is a great element of a zombie deck. Zombies is also a really cheap deck to put together and people love to foil out their cheap decks.

Ghoulraiser

Kelly is more interested in this than I am, but it is a solid attrition card for Zombies. Since Gravecrawlers can come back on their own, this is more likely to grab something big - something like Diregraf Captain or Geralf's Messenger. If you look at it another way, it's a 2/2 for 1BB that draws another monster. You have a little bit of control over it, since you can craft your graveyard to a small extent. I think this is one of the more long-shot calls, but we'll see on it.

Thraben Heretic

It doesn't look like much, but it's a bear in a relevant tribe that also nerfs Gravecrawler recursion. It also controls Undying monsters, meaning that you can turn it sideways to make Strangleroot Geist stay dead in response to the trigger. Humans is, and will continue to be, a deck.

Faithless Looting

This was the first card from DKA that we knew about and we've been in love with it ever since. Faithless Looting is just simply great. It's good in control decks; it's good in reanimation and dredging decks; it's even showing up in R/W aggro as a way to filter through lands later in the game. It's good to get your copies of these now; Careful Study was $1-2 for a long time and this is much better. While it doesn't slot easily into a Madness deck the way that Careful Study did, this represents a lot more card value than the blue Sorcery could muster.

I'll also note that this is great in conjunction with Noxious Revival. I'm pretty sure we'll see some sort of Noxious Revival/Miracle deck coming along, and it will run these if it has space.

Tragic Slip

This is the Mortarpod of the set - the card that designers had no idea how dominating it could be. Getting to Morbid is as easy as it comes. Threatening a Morbid trigger makes for some great games. If I attack my 1/1 into your Dungeon Geists, will you block and turn on my Tragic Slip? Will you give me a free pass for extra damage? It gets even better when you've already killed one of their guys in combat and you can ride this to another kill. This even removes Ulamog!

Inquisition of Kozilek was a great card, but people didn't click into it early enough. Tragic Slip isn't as good as IoK, but it's very respectable and very cheap.

Thought Scour

Kelly picks this as a good call for Modern Pyromancer Ascension decks, as well as a great element of the Miracle deck that we'll undoubtedly see. You can use it to trigger Miracles on the opponent's turn and it can dig through for the Noxious Revival setup on your turn.

Tracker's Instincts

Talk about a killer Impulse! This self-mills and draws to bomby cards. It's in the right colors for some really riotous plays. How crazy? Let's play this, grabbing a Snapcaster Mage. Didn't see one the first time? We'll flash it again and get Tiago on board. Now we'll cast him, flash back our Noxious Revival and put a Miracle on top. The crazy thing about this card is that it puts your filtered cards in the graveyard. That makes it much better than Impulse ever was if you have creatures worth sifting for.

There is also a Dredge deck that makes a respectable presence in Block. It uses this card, lots of other Looting effects and then cards like Gnaw to the Bone to get a lot of value from a big graveyard.

Witchbane Orb

What card is showing up as 2-4 copies in every block deck? The Orb is relevant for two reasons: it shakes of Curse of Death's Hold and it protects you from Brimstone Volley killing you too quickly. Many Block decks are also running Devil's Play for extra reach. Witchbane Orb is a fixture in Block and if the Brimstone Volley plan comes into Standard, I expect to see the Orb make its presence there. This is a great value call because Orb is so cheap right now; things like Torpor Orb hit $2-3 or more when it was the answer to Twin. The potential for profit here is enormous.

Altar of the Lost

Kelly is hot on this card because of its applications with a hypothetical control deck. One of these out and you're casting most of the Flashback cards for free. Two of these and you've got a good shot at flashing Forbidden Alchemy for not-infinite mana. This sounds like a long shot but people played the heck out of Honor-Worn Shaku in Kamigawa Block. When your goal is to cast stuff out of the graveyard, then the Altar is going to be a driving force. It'll turn on all of those Faithless Lootings into straight 2RR - Draw 4 kinds of cards.

Desperate Ravings

I know we're all hoping for a home for this. The rational explanation of why you should run it looks so good on paper. It doesn't always work out in practice, though. If we're going to see a good Flashback deck, it really depends on whether Avacyn Restored and Return to Ravnica want to support milling strategies. There are good flashback cards right now, but there's nothing that screams "if you build around me, I will win the game for you!" The uncomfortable part is that Burning Vengeance is a great card for the flashback deck, but you can't really be blasting through your deck with Tome Scours because there's no way to bring back the Vengeance. If there's a Flashback deck to be had, I think Desperate Ravings will be at the forefront. This card also has a lot of Modern potential with Past in Flames decks.

Noxious Revival

I've been talking about this all article long. This is the way you're going to set up sick Miracle plays. This recurs the red Miracle that eats a quarter of the opponent's life for a single mana. That's huge. This and Snapcaster mean that you can just keep reusing miracles. We both love Noxious Revival for the short and long term. This is a card that has a lot of guts to it in Modern, and Standard brewers are going to run to this. Remember how expensive Gut Shot got! This won't be a Gut Shot price, but this will be more than it is right now.

Feeling of Dread

Do you remember what a blowout Sleep was in limited? Sleep let you sail through the opponent's guys all day long. Feeling of Dread is half of a Sleep, twice. We scoff at tempo cards but we've got to remember that people play Vapor Snag for the bounce, not the burn. This is two whole turns of locking down Inferno Titans and other looming monsters. It's a Moment's Peace that lets you get in two unimpeded attack phases. I love this card and I expect that U/W will adopt it when Vapor Snag rotates.

Tallying it up

How much is all of this going to cost you? I'll present the answer, derived from TCGplayer lows, in a box form. Consider it like an index purchase - if you bought one of each of these, you can see what they'd be worth later by consulting the box prices in the future. It works the same way a mutual fund's price does in that the value is an aggregate of other prices. When some cards (or stocks) go up, others go down. This is called "covariance" and ideally, you've got a portfolio worked out so that whenever something goes down, something else is going to go up.

The Box:

Avacyn's Collar 0.04
Mentor of the Meek 0.35
Ghoulcaller's Chant (FOIL) 0.10
Ghoulraiser 0.02
Thraben Heretic 0.02
Faithless Looting 0.09
Tragic Slip 0.05
Thought Scour 0.04
Tracker's Instincts 0.03
Witchbane Orb 0.22
Altar of the Lost 0.02
Desperate Ravings 0.02
Noxious Revival 0.25
Feeling of Dread 0.01

This comes out to $1.26 per "lot" that you buy at this time. If you stock up on these cards, you'll end up with 50 of something that you just can't get rid of, but you're also likely to hit the cards that a dealer is paying 25 cents for. Big dealers with sophisticated buylists like Strikezone or the aggregate of Bidwicket are good places to check for dumping these cards.

The other thing I love about buying a portfolio bet like this one is that you know the relative value of any card in the portfolio as compared to the whole. If you buy this whole packet, each card cost you nine cents. Thus, you can figure out what kind of a rise you need to get to cover the whole price of the lot. You might toss out the lot idea and just cherry-pick things like Avacyn's Collar. This is fine, just like it's fine on the stock market, but if you're going to do it, get a few cards alongside the one you're dedicated to. It's an easy hedge.

And seriously, get your Noxious Revivals.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Jason’s Archives: MARO IAMA, Fanmade Planeswalkers, Laser Deckboxes & Phoenix Top 16

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Howdy, Speculators!

I’m back for another installment of my archives. I don’t want to waste another minute up front because I am (almost) literally giddy about what I have for you up first. Continuing my motif of providing you with quality Q &A in the form of IAMAs on reddit.com, we have what is possibly the most exciting IAMA to date, MARO himself!

Mark Rosewater IAMA

Take the time to give this a read, it’s well worth it.

...

Did you read the whole thing? It’s cool if you didn’t, but if you did, you will get a real kick out of what I have up next.Ā  Redditor Fissionessence made a foily mockup of the card Rosewater said at the top of his IAMA that he’d like to see:

Looking good, Fissionessence! He credits OfChristAndMen, also a redditor, with coming up with the awesome name: Spellmeoplasm. Very cool stuff, guys!

If you haven’t gotten enough MARO Q&A, Redditor Ā jpjandrade pointed out that MARO has a tumblr where he does a Q&A practically daily! Very nice find, jpjandrade!

Fan-made custom Planeswalkers

Garruk66 blew my mind with the nine Planeswalkers he cooked up himself. It’s amazing what creative people can do with a little bit of computing power backing them up. Take a look at what he came up with:

An ongoing discussion about potential balance issues for the ability ensued and can be found at

www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/sb2m4/nine_fanmade_planeswalkers/

Custom LASER Deckboxes

Redditor Sivin96 linked some sweet pics of some laser-engraved deckboxes.

I may have to gate an artifact every upkeep, I’m so jelly. You know, like Esperzoa? Because... because he’s a… his card type is… jelly... fish.

Tough crowd.

Moving on.

Spoiler Analysis

The folks over at MTGSalvation are taking a very analytical, numeric approach to the spoiler. Using the set numbers on spoiled cards, they have come to a number of seemingly accurate conclusions about the cards yet to be spoiled.

This is well worth a read if you’re eager to know whether there will be any more multicolored cards in Avacyn Restored and if you're intererested in the clues the flavor of the set has given us about potential new cards.

SCG Open Phoenix Top 16

Finally, let’s dig into some decklists!

This last weekend was the SCG Open in Phoenix and the top 16 had a few surprises.

In less surprising news, however, there were 4 copies of U/W Delver in the top 16 of Standard. Some notables included a U/W Puresteel Paladin list piloted by Ryan Sterbenz. He seemed to be the only Mortarpod-based strategy breaking the top 16 as many players have managed to solve the Zombie problem.

R/G is very popular and its variants include a Naya pod, a pod-less Naya deck and the R/G Aggro strategy, piloted by Yurien Seyssel taking top honors.

Esper is also beginning to pop up at more events where Blue players are realizing that if you can’t beat the card advantage from Lingering Souls, you may as well run it. The Black inclusion gives control mages access to myriad answers such as Bloodline Keeper and Curse of Death’s Hold, which helps make sure your opponent’s souls don’t linger for long.

The legacy portion of the event saw four Delver strategies in the top 16, which is a worrisome trend for those of us who don’t want to see Legacy turn into standard 2.0. Ironically enough, in a top 16 swarming with Insectile Aberrations, there wasn’t a Punishing Fire to be found, as the only top 16 Maverick list stuck with G/W.

I particularly enjoyed seeing Jason Broach’s Hive Mind list get third at the event. With Storm, Belcher and Hive Mind in the top 16, maybe Legacy isn’t entirely ruled by Delver just yet. Sherwin Pu’s RUG Delver list did take top honors, however, with a sideboard that containing three Sulfur Elementals.

Someone really doesn’t like Thalia.

Good night and better lucky

That’s all I have for you this week , loyal readers. Until next time!

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Avacyn Restored, Free, Web ReviewTagged 3 Comments on Jason’s Archives: MARO IAMA, Fanmade Planeswalkers, Laser Deckboxes & Phoenix Top 16

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Insider: Initial Reaction to Avacyn Restored

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As if Standard season wasn’t in enough flux, we have recently been bombarded with exciting Avacyn Restored spoilers. This set appears to be a casual player’s dream, with a slew of new Angels and Demons, two new Planeswalkers and a ā€œmiracleā€ ability that will be wetting creative pallets for months to come.

It’s a great time to be a Magic player, and an even better time to be a speculator in the market.

Personal Tutor – Did You See That Coming?

I frustratingly admit I missed the Personal Tutor jump, catalyzed by the spoiling of Temporal Mastery. By the time I saw all the discussion on this combo, the Tutor’s price doubled and was on the verge of tripling. For me, the opportunity was missed and I refuse to pay $40 for an unproven Portal UNCOMMON card. On top of that, even though Personal Tutor is one of those Portal cards, it would be wise to unload any you've picked up as soon as possible. Completed listings on eBay have been ranging from $30-40 a card, so the window is open for you to cash out on the hype of the interaction.

The good news is I am fairly confident there will be other opportunities to profit from. Rarely does such an exciting set have impact in such a narrow space, and I believe there will be some other synergies to be discovered across formats.

This seems to me a bit difficult, however, especially in the context of Standard. The format is so wide open already, and adding a diverse set of powerful cards spins the wheel even faster. Which archetypes will dominate remains a mystery to most.

What Are Some Possibilities?

Red Deck Wins readily comes to mind as a possible force in the new Standard. We have the first 2-mana Planeswalker, Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded, which happens to cost RR. Also a much cheaper, more powerful Flame Wave has been spoiled in the form of Bonfire of the Damned.

Finally, and in my opinion most impactful, is the aggressively-costed Vexing Devil. By comparing this card with similar cards which see constructed play, we can begin to understand the Devil’s potential impact.

On the surface, it’s a 4/3 creature for R. This is certainly powerful enough to catch one’s attention. When reading the ā€œfine printā€ we find out that more than half the time this card will be a Flame Slash for players. But even with this drawback, is this card not still playable?

In Legacy burn decks, Lava Spike sees major play. This card does a full 33% more damage at least. Even mid-game, drawing this card isn’t the absolute worst since he’s either a 4/3 body or a 4-damage spell. I wouldn’t preorder this rare at current prices, but I would keep an eye on Red Deck Wins cards that curve well with this one.

An archetype that has acquired an array of weapons is the U/X control archetype – especially when combined with White. There have already been seven newly spoiled Angel cards as of this article’s writing, with the potential for many more. Not only is this a casual player’s dream (especially for me since I collect Angels), there is also bound to be a couple of these powerful flyers that break into constructed play.

The newly spoiled and seemingly out-of-place Kamigawa Planeswalker, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage, will also tempt Magic brewers. While a tad bit expensive at 5 mana, her ability to protect herself and draw cards cannot be readily overlooked. Keep in mind she is a new Planeswalker, and as such her pre-sale rate will be inflated. Give it some time for the dust to settle – her casual appeal and potential playability will make her an interesting one to watch in the coming months.

The U/W aggressive [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] decks aren’t likely to benefit as much from these control-style cards. Their aggressive nature and strategy of implementing efficient U/W creatures will not see as much augmentation from the spoiled cards. At least not at first glance.

Similarly, nothing from the new set has leapt out at me as an auto-include in the R/G ramp style decks. Miracle cards like Revenge of the Hunted and Thunderous Wrath are interesting, but they aren’t likely to make the cut. Still, this archetype is so powerful it still may survive the release of Avacyn Restored.

Recommendations

You may have noticed this article was written vaguely with very little definitive calls. This is 100% by design. With some sets, there are obvious winners and obvious strategies that will dominate a format. Cards like Snapcaster Mage, Liliana of the Veil and each of the Swords are all recognizably powerful in a constructed context.

Conversely, many of the spoiled cards from Dark Ascension were interesting but decidedly weak. This included the likes of Beguiler of Wills, Jar of Eyeballs and Requiem Angel. There were very few cards people speculated would impact the Standard metagame and these people were largely correct.

With Avacyn Restored, it’s still a giant guessing game. I have no doubt the set will sell exceptionally well because of the casual appeal, but the set’s impact on constructed play is a black box. It seems like the new Planeswalkers are strong enough to see play, but then again even Sorin, Lord of Innistrad is struggling to break into Standard Top 8’s. And with so many awesome Angels, not all of them can become another Requiem Angel, right?

My recommendations will begin to sound like a broken record. Never pre-order hyped singles – the odds of the purchase paying out is extremely low. Instead, I would look to move into safe Innistrad and Dark Ascension cards. After all, they will not be opened as part of FNM drafts any longer, and that means their supply will rapidly decline.

While still a tad bit expensive, Snapcaster Mage would be a great card to acquire at your pre-release. It shouldn’t be too difficult to trade the exciting, new Avacyn Restored cards for a couple tried-and-true Snapcasters. Barring the banning of the card, this guy is primed to remain in the $20 range throughout its tenure in Standard and beyond.

Other stable cards include cheaper Planeswalkers (I’m looking at you, Garruk Relentless) and perhaps even Geist of Saint Traft. These guys have demonstrated their power to me enough to be a believer in their influence even as the format rotates.

My largest focus still remains on the Innistrad rare lands. I like these cards for three key reasons.

First, these lands will always be playable in some fashion. Perhaps not every color combination will dominate Standard at a given time – but chances are there will be at least a couple combinations worth having. And once the Scars Dual Lands rotate, the importance of these will increase significantly.

ā€œBut wait a second, Sigmund. M13 will likely have Dual Lands and we are all expecting Ravnica Duals to be reprinted in the recently announced Return to Ravnica set.ā€ I know that’s what you’re thinking.

I’d like to remind you here that there were four main guilds in Ravnica: Boros (R/W), Golgari (G/B), Selesnya (G/W), and Dimir (U/B). Two of the four guilds are enemy colored. Even if we had Sacred Foundry and Overgrown Tomb reprinted in Standard, wouldn’t players also want to run 4x Clifftop Retreat and 4x Woodland Cemetery? These Innistrad Duals will become even stronger with Shocklands because there will be fewer instances where these will come into play tapped.

To me, returning to Ravnica and all its guilds implies one thing – the dominance of multi-colored decks. And even if Wizards printed 3 new cycles of Dual Lands, there is little incentive NOT to play the Innistrad Duals in an appropriately colored deck.

The final reason I like these lands right now is because their supply is about to get cut drastically. Once Avacyn Restored is launched, these once easy to come by rares will soon disappear from trade binders. While they may not hit $20 like their Scars counterparts did, spiking at $10 is not out of the question. After all, we’ve already seen this happen once with Isolated Chapel for a short period of time.

Nothing New

The main themes of this article should ring a bell. I generally have the same attitude whenever a new set is released. Trade hyped pre-release cards into staples and widely played cards from the past couple sets.

Really, this concept is supported by fundamental economics. You are trading away cards which will only increase in supply for cards which will only decrease in supply. And the demand may be higher on the Avacyn Restored cards while the set is new. After a few months, demand will settle as it always does and people will start to wonder how Woodland Cemetery and Sulfur Falls became $10 cards. This will be your chance to finally trade out of these lands and into the next big thing.

And with the next expert set being Return to Ravnica, we can bet there will be many ā€œnext big thingsā€ to come.

Insider: Collection Flipping — A Case Study

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Those of you who have been around the financial world long enough have undoubtedly bought and resold collections before. It can be one of the most profitable ways to deal in Magic cards, but it also one of the most time-consuming.

In my experience, buying collections has been very feast or famine. I’ve scored some sweet deals before but I’ve also slogged through a number of collection that are usually hugely overpriced and therefore undesirable. Because of this I have a general rule of ignoring collection sells, though I do keep my eye out from time to time. So it’s understandable that when I saw what looked like a reasonable Craiglist ad I was at least intrigued.

The description was fairly typical of all Magic ads online but contained this one little sentence that grabbed my attention.

ā€œPriced these out at $80 Star City buylist prices but I need cash so I’m willing to take $70 in person.ā€

The reason that buying collections online is often so tedious is because most people either just make an arbitrarily large number or look at SCG retail prices of a few cards and go from there. It’s so much work to get them to a number you can profit off of that it quickly becomes not worth your time. Seeing someone already working on buylist prices, on the other hand, is something we can work with.

I called him and found out that the seller was actually a friend of mine (Russ) who I played with a year or two back before he left the game when his son was born. I bought his collection then and was able to build my EDH deck from the profits I made grinding out the collection.

It turns out he didn’t actually completely leave the game, though he stopped doing FNM. Instead, he was designing his own block! When I met with him to buy the cards, I took some time looking over it, and it turned out to be pretty cool (you can find it here). I’m no designer, but I do think I’m pretty decent on the development end of things, so he and I were able to talk about his set for awhile and catch up, which was nice.

I bring all this up because it demonstrates a few things. First, Magic’s an awesome game that helps you reconnect with old friends and other sentimental business like that. Secondly, by establishing an actual relationship and having a real conversation, the deal turned out even better for me when he threw in a foil Angelic Destiny to the pile. In turn, I gave him the $80 because I knew I was still making money on the deal and wanted to return the favor (also I only had 20s in my wallet).

Now, I’m not suggesting by any means that you pretend to be friends with people to make money off of them. The very first bullet point I ever wrote regarding Magic was ā€œit’s about making friends, not matching dollar signs,ā€ and I believe that more than ever today. But I tell you that story as an example of how important developing sound connections is in this industry. Were I just some unknown and unfriendly cash machine, I would never get to see Russ’ set or get extra value thrown into my purchase.

Once the collection was in hand, the real work began. Among the highlights of what I got.

Foil Angelic Destiny

Ghoultree

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

2x Birthing Pod

Foil Blade Splicer

Dungeon Geist

Havengul Lich

Drogskull Reaver

3x Garruk Relentless

2x Thrun, the Last Troll

And another stack of $2-4 cards (retail), including some nice Uncommons like Strangleroot Geist and Beast Within, and then another couple dozen true bulk rares. The money cards came out to about $75-80 on SCG’s buylist, though they didn’t have everything listed that I got in the deal.

All in all, pretty decent. Now I could have sent this off to another buylist and made a little bit of money, and if there’s nothing wrong if that’s all you want to do when you buy collections.

Instead I chose to take this box to FNM and try to trade out of it before I shipped it off. After all, there’s nothing wrong with just rolling purchases into your trade binder to increase your power on the trade floor, though in general I like to keep collection flipping separate in order to be more clear on my in/out price with it.

So I took the box of cards to FNM and traded out of it separately from my regular binder to see if I could grind some of the lower-value stuff into things I can buylist easier. This allows you to move a few less expensive cards like Kessig Wolf Run that have good value on the trade floor but bad cash value to dealers. By trading some of the extra stuff like that from the box, I ended up with a much better box to actually vendor.

Now we come to the selling, which is where I’m at now. I have a few options. I can ship it off to a good buylist (initial favorite is Card Kingdom, but their foil prices don’t actually exist on the website). I checked with my local dealer and he didn’t need any of the stock from the box, so I’m trying to figure out my best avenue for selling.

That’s where you guys come in. I have a few dealers I’ve worked with in the past and gotten fair deals from, but I’m encountering the ā€œno one wants all of my cardsā€ problem. Either stores don’t need the foils or they don’t need some other pieces I’m looking to sell. Having gotten in at $80 and then traded some of it for value, I’m hoping to get $125 out of the fewest cards possible and add the remainder afterward to my usual trade binder.

What are your best selling outlets, and how do you think I should go about cashing out of what I have?

The reason I’m going to come out well in this, besides the social reasons I talked about above, is that our baseline was SCG prices. In my experience, that’s the single best way to profit while being honest with your sellers. You can show them the SCG buylist, which is the biggest name in the business, and offer to give them SCG prices on the spot and save them the trouble of shipping. This works for them because it’s easy cash and most people either don’t know how or just don’t care to scrape around the Internet for better buylists, something I don’t have a problem doing.

I hope that you guys are able to use this recent acquisition to see some of the behind-the-scenes tricks and details of the collection-flipping process, and let me know what you think I should do with the stack of cards I have left!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

POSTSCRIPT — Inspired by my success with this collection, I decided to take up another Craigslist ad of a family looking to sell a box with a few decks in it. They only wanted $25, so I figured the price was low enough to make the 45-minute round trip to check it out. Of course, when I got there I found a Tempered Steel, a Dragonskull Summit and 10 bulk rares waiting on me. Sadly, I had to pass, even at the $25 mark.

Like I said, feast or famine. Hope I have better luck next-go round!

Insider: Avacyn Restored Spoilers Begin

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It Has Begun!

Spoilers are here, folks, and it’s time to start giving our first impressions of what we’ve seen so far. As of this writing, we’ve just got the tip of the iceberg. The tip of the iceberg still tells us something about the whole, so let’s dig in.

Mythic Rares

Avacyn, Angel of Hope - SCG Preorder: $14.99

Huge 8-drop Angel that certainly changes a boardstate is no slouch, but I don’t see it making any waves in most constructed formats. I’ve hard rumors of it being a Reanimate or Unburial Rites target, but there’s just better stuff available. Perhaps after the rotation of Elesh Norn from standard, Avacyn will be a more desirable target, but until then this will be an EDH monster only. Short term, this should fall down to the $8 area, and long term has potential to go back up to the $15 range, but only if the meta is right.

Craterhoof Behemoth- SCG Preorder; $2.99

Another huge monster that will certainly grace many a Commander game, this is the biggest Overrun effect we’ve ever seen. I expect it to be a fan favorite for years, but not a chance this sees the light of day in constructed. To be honest, this card could be a better Reanimate target than Avacyn, especially in a ā€œDread Returnā€ deck. $3 is about right to me, just in that it’s a mythic, and people will want it early to throw into their EDH stompy deck. But ultimately this will fall to $1-2 and eventually onto the bulk Mythic status.

Griselbrand - SCG Preorder: $9.99

Huge monster? Check. Insane ability. Double Check. See a pattern forming here? This guy however does have an effect worth reanimating for. Paying seven life for seven cards is a good deal, especially on a lifelinker that can get the life back if needed. Although if you draw seven cards and you didn’t win, i’m not sure seven life will fix that. I expect this guy to see some amount of Standard play, but not a ton, and likely not even in multiples, so he should settle around $5 a couple months from now.

Sigarda, Host of Herons - SCG Preorder: $14.99

This is the biggest question mark of the Mythics for me. She’s got an unreal set of abilities, but the mana cost is a bit prohibitive and awkward. A big shroud-y flier would be an interesting finisher in a Bant Control deck, or a late threat in a Mythic-Bant style deck. I think this card will definitely see standard play, but how much? This will depend on a huge number of factors. I could see this potentially hitting a $20+ mark, but could also see it dwindle down to $10. For me, I have high hopes for her, but it's to early to tell just yet.

Temporal Mastery - SCG Preorder: $39.99

Woahhhhh. They printed a new Time Walk! I have no doubts I’ll be sleeving up this card during PTQ season, but I’ll guarantee I won’t pay $40 per copy. Maybe $40 per set. Hopefully you made some money on the Personal Tutor speculation tip Doug sent out, because that ship has sailed, and most have already discovered that this combo is truly a non-bo. If you picked some up, I’d move them right back out as soon as possible. Spending mana and a card to set up this Miracle (see: Skip a turn), to take an extra turn has ā€œMagosi the Waterveilā€ written all over it. Not that I don't think Temporal Mastery is good, it is, but putting all that work into setting up the miracle is not the way to do it. I think Brainstorm or Sensei's Divining Top are legitimately the best ways to set it up without tempo loss. Other decks, perhaps in standard, are just hoping to mise the miracles, or are willing to pay the extra cost if need be later down the line. This should be a $12 card, I’ll wait till then.

Rares

Angel of Jubilation - SCG Preorder: $3.99


This is one of my favorite speculation targets thus far. She’s an aggressively costed flier, that perfectly tops an aggro deck acting as an anthem. She also is an answer card for Birthing Pod, makes Phyrexian spells play fair, and even stops Force of Will(although I don’t expect that interaction to be very relevant). The only thing stopping me from a deep buy on this card is the 1WWW mana cost. It makes it hard for the multi-colored aggro decks to fit her in, and she may not be good enough for the control decks. I think $4 is the perfect price for her, so I’m just going to wait to pick them up at the Pre-release in trades.

Demonlord of Ashmouth - SCG Preorder: $1.99

I’m buying in on this guy. He’s enormous and evasive and extremely undercosted. He has amazing synergy with the black cards already played in Standard. I look forward to sacrificing a Geralf's Messenger to him, or maybe a Gravecrawler. This guy is not a joke. He should be a $4-5 card and I’m pre-ordering at least 2 sets.

Druids Repository - SCG Preorder: $0.99

This is the biggest gamble card thus far. It has potential to do some pretty broken things, its just hard to tell if 3 mana is too much for it to make a splash, but if it is, this card could shoot through the roof. At the least, it will be an EDH staple, and $1 is a pretty safe investment. Unless other spoilers appear increasing its playability, I’ll wait, but wouldn’t fault anyone for gambling on this one.

Killing Wave - SCG Preorder: $1.99

This is our Black ā€œWrathā€, it’s not a do-nothing, but its really not very exciting. It’s much worse than the Black Sun's Zenith that is already in the format, and it gives your opponents too many choices. After rotation, there’s a chance it sees some amount of play, but this is not a $2 rare.

Moonsilver Spear - SCG Preorder: $1.49

This equipment costs way too much mana both to cast and equip to be playable in any format other than limited or EDH, and in EDH its got way too much competition. Not to mention it’s also a foil promo, this is a bulk rare.

Restoration Angel - SCG Preorder: $4.99

I understand why this one is seeing some hype. It’s easy to cast, its a flash ¾ flier for 4, and it blinks one of your other creatures for value. This will certainly see tons of constructed play, I think $5 is about right, but it could creep up to 7 or 8 if the deck it fits in sees tons of popularity during PTQ season.

Silverblade Paladin - SCG Preorder: $2.49

This guy is the Buy-a-Box promo, and he also showcases the new Soulbond mechanic. I think he might see some play, but he’s pretty much outclassed by Mirran Crusader. After rotation he may see $3 or $4 but till then I doubt he’ll be more than $1-2.

I’m looking forward to more spoilers throughout the week. Pinpointing the value Uncommons is going to be the huge gainers for PTQ season, and opportunity for major profits.

Let me know in the comments which cards you like more/less than I do, and what you’re hoping to see in the coming weeks!

Jason’s Archives: Avacyn Restored Speculation Fest, PAX Recap & Ryan Bushard IAmA

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Greetings, Speculators!

Jason Alt here, back again and ready to hit you with another week's worth of gems lovingly selected for your reading pleasure. A lot has happened since last time and I want to dive right into it. It's been a very eventful week so strap yourself to something secure because I'm about to hit you with a lavalanche of internet goodies, where X equals as much as you can handle.

Ryan Bushard IAmA on Reddit.com

Anyone who's been reading Quiet SpeculationĀ  for a while or who has a Psyduck in the front of their trade binder will recognize the name Ryan Bushard.

Ryan recently sat down and answered some of reddit's burning questions. By all accounts, Ryan had a great time, and he took a lot of time to give in-depth and thoughtful answers to the questions. This is probably the most exhaustive IAmA I've seen in the Magic subreddit and it is well worth the longish read.

Click away to get some insight into the thought process of a value trader and financial writer. Ignore the advice of a guy who tripled his investment on Death's Shadow at your peril!

Avacyn Restored Speculation

Basic Lands Restored

Nice catch, Sephiroth912

Redditor Sephiroth912 noticed something strange when he was looking at the visual spoiler for the basic lands in Avacyn restored.

Sephiroth's post

It looked as though the basic lands from Innistrad were all being brightened, as if restored by Avacyn herself!

Redditor Saldonzo was good enough to compile all of the images into one handy graphic for your perusal here.

Nice work, guys!

Editor's Edit: Since the article went live this morning, we now have a full clear image Moonsliver Spear here.

Avacyn Restored Promo Card

A trip over to the mothership confirms that the promo card for the Avacyn Restored Prerelease will be "Moonsilver Spear." Unfortunately, the image on that site, seen here, is too small to make out any of the text, but it's almost certainly an equipment.

It's the spear wielded by Avacyn herself. How bad could it be? If Mayor of Avabruck, Phyrexian Metamorph and Wurmcoil Engine are any indication, Moonsilver Spear could be an excellent pickup and worth a trip to the prerelease.

Pax East Revelations

For those not in attendance (myself included), PAX East was last weekend and there was wall to wall Magic. There's a lot to talk about, so let's dive right in.

Nicol Bolas in 2013?

From the looks of the swag at PAX East, all signs point to Nicol Bolas, either as a brand new walker or as a reprint being in M2013. There's no precedent for a gold Planeswalker in a core set. It's also possible he figures heavily into Duel of the Planeswalkers 2013 and not the Magic set M2013.

What do you think?

Exhibit A
Exhibit B

New Mechanic revealed

Miracle: A New Mechanic

PAX East also spoiled a powerful new mechanic: Miracle. I guess I know what to first pick in draft now.

SCG Des Moines Decklists

  • Check out the Standard Top 8 decklists here.
  • Check out the Legacy Top 8 decklists here.

Finally, SCG Open Des Moines was this past weekend and the Standard Top 8 may surprise you.

The only Delver deck to crack the Top 8 took 8th. Meanwhile, RG continues to make very strong showings both as an aggro variant and in the form of card]Birthing Pod[/card] decks.

Another pleasant surprise was my pet card, Glissa, the Traitor, as the focal point of Jeff Hoogland's Glissa Control deck. I got a big kick out of this list, and it looks like a blast to play. How can Glissa possibly not be amazing when recurring Ratchet Bomb and [card]Nihil Spellbomb[card] is gg for the best decks in the format? It can't be bad, that's how.

In Legacy we have Minnesota's Ryan Overturf defeating Maverick with RUG Delver in the finals. Five sets of Stifles in the Top 8. A little bit of an anomaly perhaps?

That's all

I have for you this week!

Join me next week where I will dive into some more Avacyn Restored spoiled cards and show you what goodies a week spent surfing the net can turn up.

Jason Alt

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Dralnu’s Forbidden Alchemy

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After taking a week off to recover from some kind of plague I had contracted, I'm excited to be back digging through my mail. This week I'm going to take a look at an email from Joe, who is generally an aggro player and wants to build a control deck for Commander. Since most of his other decks are combinations of green, red and white, he wanted this deck to be based in blue and black. From the available Commanders in those colors he picked Dralnu, Lich Lord.

I'm excited to work with Dralnu, especially given the return of graveyard enablers and engines in Innistrad block. Besides the new toys you get to play with, there are also old standbys like Fact or Fiction that become even more absurd with flashback.

The problem with this style of deck is the lack of access to white wrath effects like Austere Command. The issue is twofold. Not only do you frequently get stuck trading one-for one, you also can't answer artifacts or enchantments that hit the table.

Your mana also gets more stressed against multiple players. You only get to untap once per turn cycle, but you may have to cast three or more counterspells or removal spells during this time. This means it's important to develop your mana consistently over the course of a game.

The biggest issue I foresee for this deck is finding a suitable win condition. Most Dralnu decks play every available Time Warp, which is certainly powerful, but I just don't enjoy those effects in multiplayer formats. Cards that effectively read "Each other player skips their turn" will not make you friends and instead get you hated off of a table.

Let's do things a little differently this week and start with the manabase that can support a heavy control deck:

Getting Control of Our Mana

People have invested a lot of man-hours into solving the question of Constructed mana bases. People have figured out how many lands are needed for different styles of control and aggro decks, and we can apply those same principles to Commander. Blue-black control decks in standard play twenty-six or twenty-seven mana sources these days, which is about the same as forty-three sources in a ninety-nine-card deck. This deck is probably going to play a few more than that once we add in the acceleration.

Let's start with the lands:

Lands

  • Hall of the Bandit Lord
  • Winding Canyons
  • Cephalid Coliseum
  • Minamo, School at Water's Edge
  • Temple of the False God
  • Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
  • Duskmantle, House of Shadow
  • Nephalia Drownyard
  • High Market
  • Reliquary Tower
  • Petrified Field
  • Bojuka Bog
  • Deserted Temple
  • Tolaria West
  • Strip Mine
  • Tectonic Edge
  • Creeping Tar Pit
  • Faerie Conclave
  • Blinkmoth Nexus
  • Inkmoth Nexus
  • Dreadship Reef
  • Sunken Ruins
  • Buried Ruin
  • 9 Island
  • 6 Swamp

This is a pretty straightforward mana base with a reasonable number of dual lands and a ton of utility.

Hall of the Bandit Lord and Winding Canyons help you get an activation out of Dralnu before he gets killed, while High Market helps protect Dralnu from burn spells that will put you completely out of the game.

Cephalid Coliseum is exciting in this deck as a cheap cantrip that fills your graveyard and digs for countermagic. Nephalia Drownyard and Duskmantle, House of Shadow also help to fill your graveyard, but they also randomly disrupt tutors like Enlightened Tutor and double as win conditions in slow games. Each activation of these lands is like drawing a card and keeps you from running out of gas in the late game.

The big hurdle to overcome is that you can only activate Dralnu once per turn cycle. Minamo, School At Water's Edge is awesome for this deck since it gives you another activation and even a third with Deserted Temple. This card is usually the first tutor target for Tolaria West.

Mana Rocks

Supplementing the thirty-eight lands in this deck, here we see two kinds of acceleration.

First, there's the cheap acceleration to get your shields up early. Second, there's ramp that generates a larger and larger mana advantage over the course of a game. Things like Crucible of Worlds and Everflowing Chalice get better the longer a game lasts.

  • Sol Ring
  • Mistvein Borderpost
  • Thran Dynamo
  • Everflowing Chalice
  • Gilded Lotus
  • Talisman of Dominance
  • Expedition Map
  • Crucible of Worlds
  • Catalyst Stone

Catalyst Stone is a subtly sweet find for this deck. It doesn't do much until you find Minamo, School at Water's Edge, but at that point you start netting more mana every turn.

Crucible of Worlds is really important for this deck's engine. You're going to put a lot of cards into your graveyard, and then you have this interesting interaction between Petrified Field, Buried Ruin and Crucible of Worlds. This combination lets you recur first a Crucible of Worlds, then any land or artifact that's been destroyed or milled during the game. While this engine is slow, it's difficult to break up and sets up one of the sweeter win conditions I found.

What win condition is this, you might ask?

You may have to read on to find out... For now, let's delve into the heart of the deck.

The Answers

Blue-black control is traditionally based on countermagic and creature removal. The key here is to find counterspells and removal that do one of several things. You want them to be incredibly mana efficient so that you can fight over multiple things each turn cycle. You also want them to replace themselves or generate some kind of advantage instead of trading one-for-one. Last, you want them to have synergy with Dralnu beyond just being really good to cast twice.

I'm pretty confident that the suite of spells I've settled on accomplishes these three things pretty well. Let's start by looking at the creature removal:

Removal Spells

  • Dominate
  • Damnation
  • Ghastly Demise
  • Sudden Death
  • Diabolic Edict
  • Snuff Out
  • Sever the Bloodline
  • Rend Flesh
  • Go for the Throat
  • Life's Finale
  • Expunge

Generally you want to play the most flexible removal spells available so they're never dead. When you're drawing and milling through your deck as quickly as this deck, you can afford to play more narrow answers. It's also important to notice that when your deck plays mostly at instant speed you can afford to play expensive spells.

Dominate is a great example of this. The effect is powerful but also extremely mana intensive. You can't afford to leave up a ton of mana for Dominate unless you can also play other spells when the situation calls for it. Otherwise you may end up doing nothing at all, which can be a huge blow to your tempo.

There's a lot of cheap removal, like Ghastly Demise and Snuff Out, that let you play multiple answers without stressing your mana. You also have flexible removal like Rend Flesh and Sever the Bloodline.

The two most exciting cards out of these are the ones that play well with Dralnu-- Life's Finale and Expunge. Expunge is just straight up value with Dralnu as your general. It cycles to fix your draws early and flashes back as a removal spell when you need one. What more could you want?

Life's Finale is sort of the opposite of Expunge. Where Expunge is efficient and flexible, Life's Finale crushes some decks out of the game. Take a second to think about how many of your decks fall apart when you lose your six best creatures. If you target the same opponent twice you can get rid of their best recursion pieces or late game bombs.

Counterspells

The counterspells are the second half of the suite of answers. The same principles apply to counterspells as to removal. You want counterspells to be flexible, cheap, synergistic, and to replace themselves. Fortunately, a number of counterspells combine several of these requirements.

  • Counterspell
  • Rewind
  • Hinder
  • Spell Crumple
  • Mindbreak Trap
  • Dissipate
  • Arcane Denial
  • Traumatic Visions
  • Negate
  • Deprive
  • Cryptic Command
  • Dismiss
  • Stifle
  • Scattering Stroke
  • Exlude
  • Muddle the Mixture

Notice how many of these counterspells either put spells on the bottom of their owner's deck or exile them. This kind of effect is important given the prevalence of recursion in the format.

There are also powerful narrow counterspells, like Stifle and Muddle the Mixture, which are awesome because you can mill them away and flash them back when you need the effect. Muddle the Mixture and Traumatic Visions are much like Expunge in that you can cycle them to fix your draw early and flash them back for value later.

You've got a suite of more expensive counterspells that do cool things: Dismiss, Cryptic Command, Rewind and Scattering Stroke. Scattering Stroke in particular is a card that I wish saw more play. People play expensive counterspells with marginal upside all the time, and Mana Drain is absurdly powerful even costed at four mana. If this gets to drain them even half of the time, I'll be ecstatic!

Filtering and Card Advantage

Once you've figured out of the suite of answers you're playing, the trick is to tie it all together. What cards set up a graveyard engine and generate card advantage without being clunky early? The way I resolved this was with a large number of cantrips and powerful draw effects, especially ones that set up your graveyard.

  • Ponder
  • Preordain
  • Brainstorm
  • Thought Scour
  • Mental Note
  • Serum Visions
  • Jace's Ingenuity
  • Blue Sun's Zenith
  • Secrets of the Dead
  • Merchant Scroll
  • Entomb
  • Intuition
  • Mystical Teachings
  • Moonlight Bargain
  • Fact or Fiction
  • Memory Plunder
  • Demonic Tutor

The first set of cards are all sweet cantrips that have seen play in a ton of formats. These cards help you sculpt your draws early, dig for answers later and set up your graveyard for flashback shenanigans. You even get to flash these back later in the game for more value. They let you look at so many cards that you can easily find singleton answers even in a ninety-nine card deck.

The next suite of cards are tutors and draw spells. Entomb and Intuition are insane in this deck, effectively [card Demonic Tutor]Demonic Tutors[/card] with upside. Similarly, Fact or Fiction and Moonlight Bargain are even better in this deck than normal. You get to dig five cards deep, keep all of them, and cast the best ones twice!

Winning the Game

This is the part I was most concerned about when building the deck. It seems like it's going to be difficult to stick a threat, given that you need to leave up so much mana and dedicate so many cards to what your opponents are doing. That said, I found a sweet set of cards that threaten to end the game quickly once you find an opening to cast them.

  • Myojin of Night's Reach
  • Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
  • Grave Titan
  • Runechanter's Pike
  • Army of the Damned
  • Swiftfoot Boots
  • Twincast
  • Reanimate

The first interaction to be aware of is the one between Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir and Mystical Teachings. First you tutor up Teferi with the front end of teachings, and then you tutor up a bomb like Grave Titan with the second half and flash it in on someone's end step.

Your second option is to steal someone else's win condition with Twincast and Reanimate, both of which are incredibly efficient. You can easily cast a threat that costs six to nine mana for one or two while leaving up the rest of your mana for counterspells.

I'm most excited about this win condition though:

Pike has made an impact in both Standard and Vintage and it's just as powerful here. You can easily set up game states where you can two-shot people with Dralnu, and first strike means you won't have to sacrifice permanents. It's not even that out of the question to one-shot someone. You won't be able to do it until late in the game, but it's definitely not something that people are going to expect.

With that out of the way, here's the finished decklist:

[deckbox did="a156" size="small" width="560"]

Overall, I'm happy with how this turned out. I think the deck errs a little more on the control end of the spectrum than I'd like, and after playing some games with it I'll probably cut some answers for more midrangey threats like Meloku the Clouded Mirror. It's likely the deck also wants more untap effects for Dralnu and a big mana engine such as Cabal Coffers or [card Urza's Tower]Urza lands[/card]. As a starting point though, I think this is a great place to be.

Next week I'm going to take a look at a color combination I've never built before! We'll be working with Edric, Spymaster of Trest and trying to build a tempo deck for this Timmyest of formats. Be sure to check it out!

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com

@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: An Alternate Investment in Booster Boxes

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Although players prefer to ignore the inevitability, I will make the bold statement here: one day, new Magic: the Gathering cards will no longer be printed.

It pains me to say it, but it is an ultimate truth we must come to terms with. The clichĆ© ā€œall good things must come to an endā€ applies to many facets of life, including life itself. Magic: the Gathering is not immune to this truism.

This indisputable fact is the basis for my occasional sealed product purchase. I never want to imagine a day where I can’t open a fresh pack of cards. And I can ensure that day never comes regardless of what Hasbro’s profitability is from this game.

Why I Buy Booster Boxes

This Magic Apocalypse is hopefully many years away. The game is selling more now than ever before, and with a recent increase in Grand Prix Wizards has shown no indication of a slowdown any time soon.

But I would argue there are still other valuable reasons why one should consider acquiring a couple of Booster Boxes – even beyond the concept of owning one of the last few sealed Magic products available.

Profitability

This is a financial column, so of course my number one purpose for discussing sealed product is the potential for profit. Often overlooked, sealed booster boxes are rife with investment opportunity. You just need to know where to look.

The strongest supporting argument I can provide for this theory lies in current prices for out-of-print boxes. While the price per box varies widely, even to orders of magnitude when Legends and Arabian Nights are included, there is one general trend that holds true for most sealed boxes. They go up in price.

A cursory breakdown of sealed booster box prices of out-of-print product from Star City Games shows that the average price on their site (excluding boxes above $1000) is just about $200. Since booster boxes typically pre-sell for around $100 shipped this indicates that if you buy a box of every new set, then on average you will double your money if you wait long enough.

But these numbers are even better once you factor in some common sense. Everyone knew that Fallen Empires, Homelands and Nemesis were below-average sets. Meanwhile, thanks to Tarmogoyf, a set like Future Sight is far above-average. If we had made the [arguably logical] decision to purchase zero boxes of the poor sets and multiple boxes of the stronger sets, profits could have increased even further.

I have two personal experiences with buying boxes for profit thus far. A few months ago I purchased a box of Unhinged for $144 shipped. The Unhinged lands were slowly creeping up in price and I figured with boxes of the original joke set Unglued selling in the mid $300’s, there was plenty of upside. Sure enough, booster boxes of Unhinged reliably sell for $200 on eBay as we speak and prices aren’t slowing down.

On the other hand, I also purchased a box of Coldsnap a few months ago. My rationale was that there would be at least a handful of breakout cards for Modern hailing from the Coldsnap expansion. Since the set was unpopular and didn’t sell well, I figured quantities would be lower, driving prices up. Turns out there really isn’t much in Coldsnap worth owning these days and my investment is still basically flat. Impatience has driven me to sell the box for a marginal loss.

Safety

No, I’m not implying sealed booster boxes can help save your life or fight criminals. I am referring to the best characteristic of booster box investments – they virtually never drop in price in the long term

Sticking with the original assumption that a booster box of a new set sells for $100, I’m hard-pressed to find many sealed, English booster boxes under this price. A quick search of Buy-It-Now auctions on eBay yielded very little. There were plenty of Standard Booster Boxes in the mid $90’s, and there were even a few Italian, Chinese, and French boxes even cheaper. But the cheapest English booster box of a set not legal in Standard was M11, priced at $97.99.

Of course you could argue that sitting on the sidelines watching auctions will yield you better prices. But my point still remains strong: given enough time, there are very few boxes you could buy upon release that won’t pay off in the long run. If you buy booster boxes of a disliked, underpowered set, you will still nearly break even. And again, applying some common sense will ensure your investments are even safer.

(After all, who wants boxes of M11?)

Casual Appeal

I love playing in FNM drafts. The format has been a Magic staple for many years, and the appeal is even stronger now that Wizards pays closer attention to ensuring the format is fun and balanced.

On a given Friday evening, as soon as the tournament organizer says ā€œgoā€, we rip open pack after pack seeking to make the most unbeatable deck. Do you ever stop and think about what would happen if the accessibility of these packs diminished?

I began drafting during Time Spiral block (I was very late to the party). To this day, triple Time Spiral is still my favorite drafting format. Even Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, Future Sight looks like a ton of fun because there is such a wide breadth of playable card types.

But here we are a few years and I can no longer head over to my LGS and draft these sets. They are simply too expensive or in most cases, not even in stock.

Oh, what would I give to be able to draft these sets again? Well, some patient bidding on eBay has gotten me even closer to this dream. For $160 I managed to pick up a sealed, English box of Time Spiral booster packs. The price isn’t cheap, but that should be no surprise. The set has a few strong Legacy/Modern/EDH playables and I have a feeling the supply of sealed boxes is diminishing thanks to the casual appeal of drafting this set.

With this booster box in hand, I have a win-win decision in front of me: I can sit on the sealed box and attempt to sell/trade it for profit in the future. After all, supply of this product will never go up again. Alternatively, I can find a few MTG friends and re-live Time Spiral drafting days! Either way, the investment in this box will be well worth it.

Devil’s Advocate

Some readers may be flustered with this article’s position: I present an opinion and decline to provide alternate viewpoints on this topic. Fear not, emphatic readers, for I will at least mention a few downsides and alternatives to owning booster boxes.

First, sealed booster boxes take up a decent amount of space, especially in numbers. If storage is a limiting factor for you, perhaps only a dabble in this area of MTG investing is the right amount for you. Closet space tends to be a precious commodity.

Second, there’s the factor of opportunity cost. Each box typically costs $100-$200, and this is a significant amount of cash to have tied up for months to years. Certainly, buying seasonal staples and Standard break-out cards can net you larger profit in the short term. But having already written articles about those strategies, I wanted to provide an alternative for people with a long-term view.

Finally, one could argue that purchasing dual lands and Power would be a comparably safe investment. I won’t disagree with this argument. I will merely state that booster boxes is a fun alternative to consider. After all, it’s much more likely you’ll find a few friends who will want to draft an older set rather than a few friends who want to play sanctioned vintages tournaments with Power.

Worth a Shot

Overall, I think an investment in one or two sealed English booster boxes is worth a shot. Recently I have picked up a box of New Phyrexia. Prices are already a little higher now than they were upon the set’s release. Even though the set will soon rotate from Standard, there are a good number of playable cards across multiple formats. The set also has some sweet flavor that may be fun for casual drafters.

Finally, being the final set of its respective block, the amount of product opened is relatively lower than its block counterparts.

I encourage you to research sealed box prices a little further, to see if you come to the same conclusion as I have. That is, sealed booster boxes rarely drop in price, but on average they increase in price significantly over a few years.

The time frame may be much longer, but the risk/reward ratio is nearly unbeatable!

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Insider: Playing Maze of Ith in Modern (and why Wizards wants Modern to kill Legacy)

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Wizards announced three more Modern Grands Prix this year, bringing the schedule to two American GPs, a Euro GP and a Canadian GP so close that I'd imagine plenty of players are hunting for their passports. Modern is a ripe field for speculation and it's a great time to be stocking up on some hot cards for the format. This week, we're going to take a look at what you should pick up, what you should hold off on, and what the Modern metagame will shape up to.

First, though, an interlude...

A few weeks ago, I wrote about using bidding schedulers to price-enforce cards on Ebay. Kelly emailed me yesterday, thank-bragging me about getting a Tawnos's Coffin for $10 shipped. That's the kind of thing I was talking about – policing the market to get $15 cards for 40% off. If you haven't read the article yet, you're leaving money on the table!

Prediction: Legacy will be at 60% strength a year from now.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that Wizards of the Coast is more interested in Modern than in Legacy. This makes sense. If the Modern card pool gets out of control in price, they can release the pressure with Planechase, Commander, Archenemy, Duel Decks and other boxed sets. Wizards cannot do that in Legacy. Wizards wants people to graduate to more expansive formats, and Modern is one that's achievable. Legacy, with $40 fetchlands and $100 duals, is less and less approachable. It's getting harder for WOTC to run Legacy events with a straight face.

Unsustainable.
There are only so many of these to go around. Not everybody gets to cast Delver of Secrets.

By the end of this year, there will have been seven Modern Grands Prix and only three Legacy GPs. The Pro Tour forReturn to Ravnica this Fall will be Modern. I have intimated before that I don't see the Legacy market sustaining both high prices and high interest. Thanks to the newly-spoiled Temporal Mastery (the Time Walk miracle), more and more Legacy players feel that the format is too degenerate to play in. This may be a little bit of Chicken Little on their part, but it's worth paying attention to the sentiments of players. Attendance at events noticeably dropped during both Darksteel Affinity and Worldwake Caw-Blade, which depressed secondary markets.

Modern is a fantastic format to speculate on. We see cards like Proclamation of Rebirth go from a dollar to $9.00 in five days. This dynamism is supported by an actual event calendar that supports play more than the SCG Opens do. People are more likely to buy the high-dollar cards when they have bigger events to play in. Everyone wants to live the dream of being the unknown that takes down pros at a Grand Prix.

That said, there are some intelligent cards to speculate on and there are many that you should avoid. Speculating on Modern often depends on being in the right place with the right info, which is why our Insider alerts are a crucial tool for many speculators. We've also been writing about what's worth stocking up on for Modern before Modern was a format. I've concluded that the list is a lot different if you are a player or a speculator. If you're a player, you do not want to be caught buying $4 uncommons that you needed. As a speculator, you cannot tie up so much money in playsets of cards that won't generate the profits that keep you hustling instead of pursuing meaningful work.

There are very few secret bargains left in Modern.

Tarmogoyf is the most absolutely stable bet you can make in Modern. It has no chance of being banned right now because, believe it or not, the card isn't as good as Delver of Secrets. Goyf lacks evasion and even though it gets huge, it's a little bit easier to handle in the format. It's $82 on Ebay and about $90 in stores right now. I'd predict this to hit $100 or more during the GP season. I also doubt that this will be reprinted in meaningful quantities because it's still above the curve for most Standard environments. A 4/5 for 1G is a potent monster, even if you have to build it up with a Ponder or a Lightning Bolt instead of fetchlands.

Shocklands could still be $15 if they were in Standard - just look at Seachrome Coast's price tag these days.

I'm not confident that putting investment cash into Goyfs is sound, though, because a gain of $20 on an $80 card is only a 20% profit. If you roll that same $80 into short-term specs, you could double or triple it. Tarmogoyf is better trade fodder than gold bouillon from Credit Suisse, so if you can get more in trade value, it's still worth thinking about.

The Zendikar fetchlands are also solid bets for long-term holds. You've heard this before, sure. The one point I'll make on it is that although everyone overestimated how much the Ravnica shocklands would get played, nobody estimated that we'd see this many fetches in decks. It's much easier to run six fetches and two duals than four duals and four fetches – the chances of getting whammied by Blood Moon are much lower if you can more reliably get those basics out. These are also unlikely to be reprinted in the next five or more years. They will eventually get up to the $30 range of their Onslaught friends if they do not see reprinting.

I have it on decent authority that shocklands will be reprinted in the next year, possibly in M13. We are returning to Ravnica in October, which leaves both M13 and Ravnica as good places for reprinting these lands. Even if they are reprinted, they might command $15 in Standard – just look at Seachrome Coast for proof. I'm not going to be picking up any shocks for more than $20, which de facto means I'm not picking up any shocks right now.

Stocking up on investment cards depends on whether you are playing or speculating.

As I mentioned earlier, there are different lists of ā€œget thisā€ cards for players and speculators. If you're a player, I think you need to make sure you have access to the power uncommons and the less-powerful uncommons that routinely get played. The two that immediately come to mind are Firespout and Electrolyze. Both are great for picking off weenie hordes. Both can hit $3-5 at event sites if you need them. You should have Path to Exiles because they will only go up in price; I don't think they'll appreciate enough to reward speculating, but getting cheap playsets is wise. This will be $5 or more forever.

As long as we have Tron in the format, Expedition Maps will be worth money, and more over time. It's unlikely that we will see nonbasic hate that is as powerful as the spells that Tron can crank out. To explain further, it's not like we'll see a better Sowing Salt, but we did see a better Wurmcoil Engine when Karn Liberated was printed. We will continue to see big Tron-worthy spells and monsters, which makes Tron ever more potent.

GP: Turin will quietly shape the Grand Prix Trial season for the rest of the year.

Let's look at the T8 from GP: Turin, which was a Modern event. Take a good look at Jose Luis Velazquez Del Pozo's U/R Storm list. No Pyromancer Ascension, just Gifts Ungiven. I've tested this deck and it's startlingly like High Tide. Jose's list is on the more tame side of Gifts combo, but be aware that these sorts of decks exist. I say he's on the tame side because there are some lists that run Increasing Vengeance, which is an insane piece of technology that you should remember.

That card makes it quite easy to make lots of mana with Seething Song, fight counterspells or double up on things like Banefire. These kinds of Storm decks are nearly mechanical in their regularity, just like High Tide is. You just set up for four turns, cast Gifts at an endstep and win the next turn. Doesn't matter who or what the opponent is. In the hands of disciplined players, this is the storm deck to look out for.

Totally great creature control that nobody can afford to play in their deck.

Splinter Twin decks also popped up, both in maindecks and sideboards. I think it's totally lame that atwo-card creature-based combo is actually great. We will be seeing a lot more of this combo. I suggest that players get their set of Damping Matrix. There's also the chance that Night of Soul's Betrayal will be playable, but I think it suffers from The Abyss Syndrome. The Abyss is great, but no decks can really play it in Legacy because the ones that care about creatures often want to run their own creatures.

NOSB shuts down combos, but it also cuts off some of the best creatures in the format from your deck. Curse of Death's Hold is still an option, but it may be just a little too expensive. Torpor Orb is also a consideration – but Twin decks usually have plans for Damping Matrix and the Orb. The card ā€œSplinter Twinā€ is a known card at this point; its value should remain stable, but I wouldn't bother getting them unless you personally wanted to play the deck.

The deck that Antonio used to take down the event, RUG Delver, is a strange beast. It's not particularly great at anything, but it's very efficient. It has decent filtering and contains a few bombs like Garruk Relentless and Cryptic Command to negotiate tough spots. I predict we'll see a lot of this at GPTs, since it runs blue cards and it's Pro-approved. I don't think the deck can withstand a lot of out-there strategies, though de Rosa did hold his own against the Soul Sisters deck that he battled in the finals. Vedalken Shackles and Threads of Disloyalty are both worth keeping an eye on. Shackles dismantled everyone that de Rosa played, and Threads is an excellent post-board answer spell for the mirror.

Maze of Ith is actually Modern-legal (but it's not called by that name).

Pack your Camels, boys. This is going to be a painful trek.

The best anti-fair deck card I've come across in awhile has been Desert. A deck like RUG Delver cannot beat two Deserts on the field, and a single Desert is going to stop decks like Faeries and Affinity. I suggest dropping the $2 and getting your set if you play Modern; there will come a time when you want the dessicating land's ability to completely mess up combats.

It acts like a Maze of Ith because nobody is going to attack into Deserts – but that still lets you cast things at the endstep! It's even better than Maze because if your opponent has two 1/1s and you have a Maze, they will attack in. If they have two 1/1s and you have a Desert, they are unlikely to attack at all.They have to hope that they have something like a Sword to put on a smaller creature to make it survive a trip through the Sahara. If you play Maze, people will still attack you and make you tap Maze to keep you honest. No such problem with Desert - the mere threat means that they'll stay at home.

I've had a bit of success with super-greedy 4c Gifts decks that run 4 Deserts (27 lands total) that just use Desert to buy a lot of early time until you need to cast that Gifts and take over the game. Desert is a highly-threatening card and it threatens without actually costing you mana if you have instants that you can pour that mana into.

I'd imagine that they make storage lands like Dreadship Reef much more interesting, too. Desert will break parity when their Tarmgoyf is attacking into yours. Desert does nothing against Storm or Twin, but it frees up a lot of space in the deck to handle those sorts of encounters.

Modern is also poised to make Lingering Souls even more of a star. Lingering Souls is a busted card in every non-Vintage format, so let's be clear about that. Getting four separate bodies for five mana is a great bargain, even in Modern. It's revolutionized control strategies, since you can tap out on one turn (or just tap low) for two tokens and see if you can ride them all the way with counters backing up. Alternately, you can use the spell like a Moment's Peace. The only caveat I have about building around Lingering Souls is that Surgical Extraction and Snapcaster Mage will eat your lunch.

Finally, I'll note that Surgical Extraction is a good long-term hold for Modern. It's Phyrexian mana, so it won't be reprinted again in any non-special set. It's better than Extirpate by a long shot. It will always be useful as long as cards like Lingering Souls and Splinter Twin exist, and it will only get better with time. Get your set now and thank me in a year.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

(super excited to write "Grands Prix" in this article, which is even better than writing "Lightning Helices.")

Insider: Supply, Demand and Dark Ascension

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Quick question. Do you know how many people play Magic? Do you know how many people played a year ago, two years, five, ten?

I didn’t think so.

Why does this matter? Well, if you haven’t noticed, the vast majority of Magic players aren’t economists. They look at a card and its playability and immediately link it to its price. What they don’t understand is that playability is just one of a myriad of factors that affect a card’s market price.

Let’s take a recent example to illustrate the point — the fastlands from Scars of Mirrodin (Seachrome Coast and friends). Just a year ago we were trading these away at $3-4 a pop; now they’re pushing all the way up to $15 or $20.

Why is that? Most people will point you towards a few reasons. They’re the best at what they do in Standard. They’ve proven to be Modern-playable. [INSERT DECK NAME] is the best deck this weekend.

And, while they’re not necessarily wrong, I point you to another reason.

The Magic: The Gathering player base has doubled in the last two years.

While Wizards doesn’t release exact numbers on this sort of thing, I’ve talked to enough people whose business it is to know that since Zendikar, there’s been a 100% increase in people playing Magic, with a sizable portion of those new players coming in with Innistrad. We have further evidence of this from director of Magic Aaron Forsythe, who confirmed that Innistrad is the best-selling Magic set of all time.

So what does this have to do with us finding our playset of Seachrome Coasts? In short, it’s the most basic tenet of supply and demand theory. The amount of Coasts on the market is just vastly inferior to the sheer numbers of new players who need it but haven’t cracked a pack of Scars in their lives. That’s how you end up paying $20 for Darkslick Shores.

This principle is also why sets as a whole come down in price after prerelease weekend. As the number of copies on the market increases and demand decreases, prices come down unless there is a factor that causes increased or renewed demand, such as what happened with Geralfs Messenger, a card I advised picking up at the $4 pre-sale price and subsequently jumped to $10 when Zombies broke out a few weeks later.

I realize this information may sound elementary to some of you, but it’s important to spell out this principle before moving into the next section.

Everything old is new again

I referenced Dark Ascension in the title of this article, and I plan to go into detail in a few moments. But first we need to take a trip back in time to a world where Putrid Leech was king and our buddy Jace, the Mind Sculptor was new.

When Worldwake was released, people initially didn’t understand just how absurd Jace was, since Bloodbraid Elf into Blightning kept the big guy in check. The ZZW draft format wasn’t the most exciting ever, and packs of Worldwake weren’t cracked nearly as much as Zendikar packs were.

Fast forward six months. People drafted the hell out of Rise of the Eldrazi and Standard was rotating. Soon Valakut decks were destroying Standard until our man Jace and unlikely buddies Stoneforge Mystic and some birds became the solution that quickly turned into the problem. Demand for Jace and Stoneforge Mystic skyrocketed, and Stoneforge set the then-ceiling (until Snapcaster Mage came along) for a rare in the post-Mythic era at $20-22.

While $20 Stoneforges weren’t enjoyable, it had nothing on $100 Jaces. We all know the ending to this story, with both cards getting the axe in Standard, but it’s easy to forget about just what caused these prices to go asĀ high as they did because it was easy to point out why they were so expensive. They’re the best at what they do in Standard. They’ve proven to be Extended and Legacy-playable. CawBlade is the best deck this weekend.

And, just like with Seachrome Coast, these statements weren’t wrong. But also just like Seachrome Coast, they don’t tell the whole story. The fact was that the amount of Worldwake that was opened just couldn’t compare to the demand for these singles on the market.

Which brings us back to Dark Ascension.

Why this matters NOW

Even if I didn’t just spell them out, the comparisons between Worldwake and Dark Ascension should be obvious. Each will opened for three months one pack at a time in draft and then fall off the face of the Earth when the third set comes out. Each set had one chase Mythic (Jace and Sorin, Lord of Innistrad), with a lower number of exciting rares when it was released.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the number of Dark Ascension boxes ordered was down significantly compared to Innistrad. People complained that there wasn’t any reason to order boxes, and though this problem was alleviated somewhat when Huntmaster broke out at the Pro Tour (which I also called the week prior), the number of boxes sold around the time of the prerelease, when demand is at its highest, was down.

This has created a perfect storm, and one we can use to our advantage in the next few weeks.

Applying it

I’ve touched on most of these at some point in the past, but now that we’re deeper into the set it’s time to revisit the subject. In about three weeks Avacyn Restored is going to hit your Local Game Store and we will all be enamored with the Helvault and subsequently forget all about Dark Ascension and its playable cards.

That is why we must act now, before we start to see the supply begin to dry up in trade binders and before prices begin to creep up. Using purely substantiated and historical evidence, it’s not a stretch at all to conclude that prices from Dark Ascension are at their lowest, and this is a short list of the cards I’m stocking up on now in preparation for the next year and a half of Dark Ascension’s run through Standard.

Mythics as a whole

Remember Mythics like Dragonmaster Outcast, which never even saw a hint of Constructed play, are sold out at $6 on SCG, and seven of the 10 Mythics from Worldwake are at least $2.50 on SCG, which means most of them will fetch a dollar or two from a dealer. Looking at Dark Ascension, now is the time to target cards like Mikaeus, the Unhallowed, Beguiler of Wills, Elbrus, the Binding Blade and Moonveil Dragon as throw-ins while they’re basically free in trade. While it’s unlikely any of these will break out somewhere and explode in value, they are an easy way to start picking up a few bucks in ā€œfreeā€ dealer bait with the goal of cashing out in a year or two.

The ā€œIncreasingā€ cycle

I’m particularly fond of Increasing Confusion, which has the mill pedigree behind it (just look at Mind Funeral’s price), and will stay popular casually forever. People literally give these away now, and that won’t stay true forever. Even Archive Trap, which was from a large set, will move to dealers at a dollar, which adds up when you can get dozens of Increasing Confusions thrown in over the next month.

Impacting every format yesterday. Time to move on these.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

This is one of my favorite speculation targets at the moment. She sells for $5 on SCG right now, but you can get her at $3-4 in trade, which won’t last too much longer. She’s found a home in nearly every format and will eventually break out in Standard, even if it’s not until after rotation. I fully expect to be able to double up Thalia in a year or so.

Dungeon Geists

Geists has been on-again, off-again great in Standard, and after rotation that could definitely move to strictly ā€œon-again.ā€ Don’t overpay for these, but start to hoard them if you can.

Geralfs Messenger/Gravecrawler

The world caught on and these rightly hit $10. Zombies has fallen off in the last few weeks, but I think we can safely assume they’ll be back with a vengeance come rotation if not sooner. Again, I don’t like overpaying on current market value here, but there’s very little risk in hoarding these since they will always trade well and could be $15-20 without much of a problem. Also not a bad idea to grab Zombie Apocalypse at 10 cents apiece.

Hellrider

This guy is all over block, and holds the distinction of being another card I called during Prerelease weekend (I've been on a roll with DKA callshots). The initial price jump is behind us, but if he is as prevalent in Standard as he was in Block pre-bannings he’ll easily jumped past $5 and move closer to $7-10.

Ghoultree

My 94 Splinterfrights and I want self-mill to become a real thing in Standard one day (and it could happen), but if nothing else these cards trade well since casual players love to Fling them some Ghoultree.

Predator Ooze

This already randomly shows up on buylists for a dollar, and that is already enough of a reason to get them for free.

Vault of the Archangel

Get in on this now at a buck or two in trade. It is an EDH thing and will probably be even more of a Standard thing, which means this will settle around $4-5 in a year.

Uncommons

I’ve talked before about the Uncommon cycle of ā€œbeast lords,ā€ which includes the three captains and Immerwolf. Also you should obviously be grabbing every Lingering Souls in existence, since the card is insane across almost every format and will easily sell to dealers for up to two bucks in a year. This is definitely the Inquisition of Kozilek of the set.

Strangleroot Geist is also a very safe hold, though it was also a 4-of in an event deck.

Foils commons/Uncommons to look out for

Faithless Looting

Tragic Slip

Lingering Souls

Thought Scour

As always, thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Avacyn Restored Images Released!

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Avacyn Restored is right around the corner and images from the new set are beginning to trickle in!

The boxes, fat packs and event deck images have all been released, with names and art of new cards from the set in Full HD glory!

You can find the full, original post here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: Prepping for Spoiler Season

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The last week before official previews week is always a little slow in the world of finance. We’ve gotten our first preview of Avacyn herself, and she’s certainly going to be a popular EDH card but not likely to be worth investing in. The real question is what can we be doing now to either gamble or hedge for the next set? Time for some speculation in the most literal sense of the word.

What we know we’ll see:


The completion of the Enemy Colored Utility Land cycle, We have still to see U/R, U/G and R/W utility lands. What types of lands will these be and will they create new decks or complement existing decks at all? My good friend John Kasari has been doing very well with his Wolf Run Blue deck, which combines the power of the classic G/R ramp deck, and adds the tempo cards of Frost Titan and Vapor Snag. He finished 13th at the GP in Salt Lake City, and Top 8 at a Star City only a couple months back with this list. He told me personally when Dark Ascension was spoiling that he was really hoping for an awesome utility land for this deck.

The only card currently in the deck that has some room to grow is Frost Titan. As we’ve seen many times before, the Titans tend to cycle around in popularity, and it may be Frost Titan’s time to shine. You can find it around $2, and I don't expect it to drop any time between now and the end of Standard PTQ season, so I find it as a pretty safe pick-up.

Angels are certainly a theme in this set if the art revealed so far is any sign. Throughout history Angels have been a classic U/W control finisher starting with Serra Angel and most recently Baneslayer Angel. If there’s a solid angel at the 5-6 drop slot, I’m going to strongly consider it. This simply means the Gideon call from last week is indeed a good play. It also tells us that Geist of St Traft is not going anywhere anytime soon.

What we might see:

Are we going to get a G/W human lord? It’s certainly possible, and in reality, it may be all a G/W Gavony Township deck needs to really shine. Township itself probably isn’t going to jump much in price, but Champion of the Parish and Mirran Crusader are the two guys I’m keeping bookmarked with some of my favorite Online Vendors. If spoilers look favorable for Human decks, I plan to buy a boat load of these.

Are we going to get support for Vampires? Vampires, and more in general B/R aggro decks haven’t seen the light of day in quite some time. There’s great removal and burn there, but the cheaper efficient creatures don’t really have a critical mass to form a good deck. If we get a good rare 2-drop for the Vampire deck, I could see this coming into popularity. If so, the biggest gainer would likely be Blackcleave Cliffs which is only $6 right now. If the other ā€œfast landsā€ are any sign of a ceiling, this could easily hit $12 or more during PTQ season.

We always get new Planeswalkers in each set, but being a large set, we may see as many as three. Will any returning characters appear in new incarnations? Will the U/G ā€˜walker that’s been rumored for some time finally appear? Unfortunately Planeswalkers are very finicky with respect to their financial value, and there’s not much speculation to be made without seeing exactly what color, cost and ability we’ll be getting out of them. This will obviously be the most anticipated reveal of the Spoiler season.

Flashback (as well as the other mechanics like Morbid and Fateful Hour) will not be returning. So if you were hoping an Altar of the Lost deck, or Burning Vengeance deck would be for real, bad news. But that does mean we’ll get some new mechanics which can potentially open up some value for cards that sit in our bulk binder. If you have any speculation holdings floating around waiting for further Flashback support, it’s not coming.

Wrap Up

I’m very excited for new set, as spoiler season is always the most profitable time of the year, and coinciding with Standard PTQ season is great news for speculators. Keep your eyes peeled for leaks and rumors, and try to keep your buys in things that are fairly safe as even as cards are spoiled there may be other cards that pop up later that hose the strategy you’re speculating in.

See you next week!
Chad Havas
@torerotutor on twitter.

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Chad Havas

Chad has been with Quiet Speculation since January of 2011. He uses price speculation to cover all his costs to keep playing. Follow his journey from format to format and be prepared to make moves at the right times.

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Posted in Avacyn Restored, Finance, Free InsiderLeave a Comment on Insider: Prepping for Spoiler Season

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Jason’s Archives: Chapin, Alt Arts & Avacyn Restored’s Helvault

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Greetings, Speculators!

My name is Jason Alt and I have a problem. Since 1996 I have been a Spike. It started innocently enough at first. A quick peek at Top 8 decks on thedojo.com here, a partial rancoredelf spoiler before a prerelease there, nothing hardcore. Soon it had spiraled out of control. I found I had to win 2 or 3 FNMs a month just to get the same buzz. I really hit rock bottom when I was selling Magic cards just to pay for my addiction. I needed help, so I turned to the most reliable source of useful and scientifically accurate advice - the internet.

Maybe you are where I was. Have you ever found yourself turning your nose up at people playing casual games for no stakes at your local shop? Have you ever dropped after one loss at an FNM? Do you not own an EDH deck? Can you remember the flavor text on Time Warp? Maybe you can still remember when this game used to be fun. Are you still having fun? Maybe you are, and that's great. But maybe you aren't having fun unless you're winning.

I want to share something with you, something that got me through my darkest days when I considered quitting Magic altogether. When I turned to the internet in my despair, I found a world of Magic-related content entirely divorced from building and wielding tournament-caliber decks.

Some of it doesn't even have to do with actually playing the game at all.

I humbly offer it here for your consideration. Think of it as something to cleanse your palate after an afternoon spent trying to optimize Delver or your sideboard for Maverick. I have mined the farthest reaches of the internet to find you unique and entertaining content that will hopefully make Magic fun again (or if it is, even more fun).

Without further ado, I present my archives.

Pat Chapin on Reddit.com

First up we have a rare glimpse into the mind of a true innovator. Pat Chapin took some time to do a Q&A over at reddit.com.Ā  Pat spills his guts about playtesting, his book and even his favorite artwork. This is a quick read and well worth checking out if you’re a fan of ā€œthe innovatorā€.

Accessorize

Next we have a group of talented and creative Magic enthusiasts who are helping the rest of us accessorize.

Leather Deckbox

First up, Redditor MurderSheScrote shared this gem with us.

A functioning deckbox made from leather by his wife, Samantha who is a leatherworker. If you’re jealous of his cool swag, Samantha has an etsy page etsy.com/shop/TaeliacStudio and can make custom deckboxes to order. I’m waiting on a TARDIS deckbox myself. I see the appeal of a box that’s small enough to fit in your bag but is big enough on the inside for your entire collection.

Alterations

Redditor Miss_Kitteh posted a pic of some gorgeous full art islands she altered, making it clear she does commissions:

Hit her up on Reddit to arrange custom alters. Keep up the good work!

Custom Playmats

Lots of posters on the MTGsalvation forums suggested InkedPlaymats.com as the go-to source for making a custom playmat with the image of your choice.

I ran into Magic artist Drew Baker at GP Indianapolis, who also does custom playmats as well: DrewBaker.com. I’m currently rocking a Drew Baker playmat of an original piece Drew did featuring the Planeswalker Garruk Wildspeaker.

Have you gotten a custom playmat? Post a link to a pic in the comments and let everyone see.

Custom Expansions Expansions

Starcraft

In my search for original magic content I stumbled across something that blew my mind. Redditor efofecks created an entire expansion set based on Starcraft complete with decklists for each race and a visual spoiler. I ported the files to Magic Workstation and tooled around for a bit with some friends and we had a blast. You don’t have to be a fan of Starcraft to get a kick out of this expansion, but it can’t hurt. Kudos to efofecks!

Rise of the Titans

If Starcraft isn’t your thing but you like fan-made expansions, check out Rise of the Titans over at misterorange.com. At 295 cards and custom mechanics, this must have taken forever to complete. Follow the links on the site to other forums to discuss your favorite cards.

Other Tidbits

Nicknames

To lighten the mood a bit, MTGsalvation forum users have been giving nicknames to their cards. Some are intuitive and some are… well, you’d better see for yourself.

Whats In the Helvault?

Over at The Mothership, players are discussing what could possibly be in the Helvault at the Avacyn Restored prerelease. Personally, I hope it’s a swarm of starving, angry hornets. Or candy.

The Past Weekends' Events

SCG Bronze TCQ in Grand Rapids, Michigan

Last weeked was a sort of a slow weekend for events, but one highlight for me was the SCG Bronze TCQ in Grand Rapids, Michigan, won by Kalamazoo's own Deshaun Baylock. Check out the Top 8. Way to go, D!

Grand Prix Kuala Lampur

Grand Prix Kuala Lampur finished with Yuuya Watanabe coming out on top.

Star City Invitational

The Star City Invitational gave us a glimpse into some new possibilities with a birthing pod deck taking the top honor. Azorious and esper are still king though, with mage blade and UW spirits predominating the top 32.

Grand Prix Salt Lake City

Delver was the winning deck in Salt Lake city, but it's impossible to ignore the RG we've been seeing. RG aggro, Naya pod, wolf run; there are a lot of applications for Huntmaster of the Fells it seems.

Will equipping Delvers and Stalkers still be relevant when Avacyn finds itself restored? I'll leave it to you to speculate.

That's All

for you this week! Let us know in the comments if you're picking up what I'm putting down. If you want me to find some more of these undiscovered gems, I'm glad to mine the vast, unexplored reaches of the interwebs.

Until next we meet,

Jason Alt

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Avacyn Restored, Free, Web Review6 Comments on Jason’s Archives: Chapin, Alt Arts & Avacyn Restored’s Helvault

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

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