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Insider Basics: Analyzing The Recent B&R Changes

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On September 20, Christmas again came early for speculators everywhere. Wizards of the Coast decided to unban and unrestrict some cards and we are going to talk today about why some of them are winners and others are losers. At 12am they announced the changes and at 12:03, I had an email going out to Insiders about the changes with my suggestions. I'll fill you in on how I made such quick decisions and why they have been pretty accurate. First off, here's the email:

 

Hello!

Valakut is unbanned in Modern. Pick up Valakuts, obviously, but Scapeshift
and Prismatic Omen are also critical parts of the Valakut Modern deck.

Burning Wish is unrestricted in Vintage; honestly, you can get in on this
if you want but Vintage is such a small market that I don't anticipate
LASTING profits from Burning Wishes becoming available. Foil Wishes are
still a fine acquisition.

Go forth and profit!

 

Why isn't Valakut just blowing up?

To be fair, Valakut IS literally blowing up.

Valakut, the unbanned Modern land, should be exploding in price as a prime speculation target. However, it has been slowly climbing in price. On Ebay, they were closing for about $1 apiece before the unbanning and now they are up to about $3.25 per copy. I was not strong on the card at unbanning and I'm still not sold on it bringing high gains. These are my reasons:

Promo copies: Valakut was the promo for Zendikar, which was a hugely-attended prerelease due to the Hidden Treasures promotion. Lots of people got their copies and got rid of them or stuffed them in a binder.

Low casual play: I've got a copy of the land for my Commander deck and I'm sure lots of people have one or two, but Valakut isn't exactly a deck that screams to be built in casual circles. It's not something like Quicksilver Amulet or Tortured Existence where you want to build something unique and awesome. It just rewards you for playing with a whole lot of Mountains. This isn't sexy.

Low in-deck need: Thanks to Scapeshift (we'll get to it), Valakut decks can get away with running only one or two of the namesake card and still burn someone out easily. Primeval Titan helps with this, too. Since you don't need four copies of it, the overall demand will be lower.

Low price history: Valakut was the centerpiece of an unfun and linear ramp strategy that tore up Standard pretty seriously. Throughout its reign, Valakut was only about $3. People simply cannot remember a time where they were paying $8 for a copy of it, so they are less inclined to pay that much for it now.

When you add all of this together, you can predict about a $2-3 rise on the card. Now on MTGO, this will still get you a lot of tickets, but paper Magicians have to worry about more transaction fees eating into their profits. This is a perfect card to dump into a buylist paying $2 for the copies you bought much more cheaply. I put together this information quickly when the updates were announced, mainly because I remember Valakut in Standard. However, if you're a newer player, you could go look at price histories on Black Lotus Project to get a sense of the historical ceiling on the card.

To be frank, I do not think Valakut is a good Modern strategy. That will not stop legions of people from trying it, though.

Shifting Your Perspective

A small gallery of shifting related cards:

(also coulda called this section "full of shift," suggest your puns in the comments)

Scapeshift has been an excellent speculation target in the past. Small brag time, I remember when Zendikar came out and I think Olivier Ruel mentioned that Scapeshift would be good for it. I bought a set for a quarter apiece and only wished I'd bought twenty more - it went on to smash up Extended.

At its height, Scapeshift was commanding $10+ in Extended. It was a potent combination and it won the game outright when it worked. While Valakut's price memory held it back, Scapeshift can get past that. It's an obvious power card and you want four of them in your deck to maximize the "I win" scenarios. People know that the card can be worth ten bucks when the card is good. It's also a really obvious target. This is important because you can have a really good spec target in mind, but if nobody puts it in a deck, the card gathers mold. I've had scenarios like that before; I think Desert was and is still pretty great in Modern, but nobody else is trying it out - it won't go anywhere. On the other hand, Scapeshift is the first place you look when you see that Valakut is unbanned. That makes it a great card to buy up to flip.

Prismatic Omen: Unique Effect, Great Price

Get it? Prismatic Oman!

I think when Wizards printed Prismatic Omen that they thought it was fairly costed. This card is wildly undercosted for its effect. It reads 1G: not care about mana colors ever. It also has the really potent ability of turning on "lands matter" cards. Neither of these abilities got much play before, so it made sense at the time that this card would not go anywhere. Well, not much further than my Last Stand casual deck, at least.

Prismatic Omen was phenomenal in the Scapeshift deck because it made everything into a mountain, even your Valakuts. You could run zero Mountains in your deck and still make Valakut kill someone if you had the Omen in play, and you could shift into two Valakuts and have them count each other in the final kill tally. It's because of this that Prismatic Omen went up to $15+ during its Extended run.

Just like with Scapeshift, this was a good call for speculation because the market knew it was good and was willing to pay a lot for it. It's from an older set and it has a lot of casual appeal outside of just Scapeshift. Everyone likes to fix their manabases easily and this is a good card for 4+color Commander decks. There's very little chance of seeing a reprint on it, either. I think Wizards knows that this set of abilities on a 1G card are just a little too potent.

Staying Out of Wargate

Wargate is another Scapeshift deck card and it's potentially really good - you can get Prismatic Omen or your Valakuts with it, for example. However, Wargate is a total crank to cast if you don't have the Omen in play, which limits it. Even if you do get it fired off, you've spent 3-5 mana for it. That could be too slow in Modern, and you've got to run it through Spell Pierces to resolve it. Wargate is a fine third-string speculation target. Things like Valakut are the guaranteed spec targets, and Scapeshift is a good second-string spec; it's pretty easy to figure out that you should use this card. I'd classify Helm of Obedience and the Leyline of the Void combo in the second tier, too - if you know about it, you can see the power, but you're a bit a loss for the application. Wargate, though, takes some real effort to make work; you've got to know why you should use it and it also has to make the final cut in the deck.

Wargate is fine to keep an eye on, though; they are about 60 cents right now on TCGPlayer and if the Scapeshift/Valakut deck goes anywhere, it might pack Wargates. There will be plenty of time to pick up Wargates if that deck actually plays them, but I would avoid getting stuck with hundreds of these right now. That the market isn't warm to the card at this point is a really good indicator that it will stay an unloved spell.

It's simple to look at the price history of Wargate and realize that this card wasn't huge, even when it was part of a very important Extended deck.

Burning Wish is Full of Vintage History But Lacks Action

Burning Wish was unrestricted in Vintage, so let me tell you how it got sent away in the first place.

Burning Wish was part of a deck called Long.dec, which used Lion's Eye Diamond. You'd play LED, cast Burning Wish and then use LED in response. Your wish would get... Yawgmoth's Will! You could cast the Will with LED mana and then replay the LEDs to get more mana before flashing back your graveyard and killing the poor opponent with Tendrils of Agony. Yes, it was degenerate. This was even worse because Wishes used to be able to get Exiled cards. You could Wish for a Yawgmoth's Will early, cast it, then get it back later with another Wish!

These days, however, LEDs are gone and Spell Pierces are common. Combination decks have not been a part of Vintage for a long time - its axis is currently Bazaar of Bagdad - Mishra's Workshop  - Dark Confidant and storm does not slot in as a primary strategy with any of these. Burning Wish will solve none of this. Even if it did, there are too few Vintage events to drive Burning Wish's price. It hit about $10 earlier this year and is around $13 now. Not big returns, nor big reactions from the market. The takeaway here is that Vintage unrestrictions will very rarely create awesome spec targets.

Developing Your Speculation Sense

A lot of my quick response was due to following Magic for a long time, and you do get the benefit of vets like myself with you Insider subscription. Over time, though, you will develop your own memory of cards, and it's easy to do. Just follow the trends and the fun, winning decks in Magic and you'll be fine! Even when cards are unbanned out of the blue, you tend to have about an hour to scoop up everything that you'd want before the cards are gone from the internet. There are also plenty of other speculation opportunities that don't involve the four nights a year when Wizards gives attentive people free cash. You can use the same techniques of evaluating price history and potential when analyzing hot spoiled cards and new Standard breakouts.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Return to Ravnica in Commander

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It's been quite a while since I've been this excited for a new set. The original Ravnica block was such a spectacular one and RtR has a lot to live up to.

I'm sure Ravnica has tons of exciting cards for Standard, Modern and Legacy, which will be covered in articles by other people. For my part, I'm going to spend time looking at what this set has to offer the world of 99 cards.

For a full spoiler of Return to Ravnica, click the image below:

Initial Thoughts

I love the idea of two-color themes, which are prominently supported in Ravnica. I enjoy creating two-colored Commander decks the most because two colors usually provides enough cards for a robust theme while keeping it simple. Ravnica is the perfect set for this. There are plenty of fun two-colored gold cards as well as exciting new legendary creatures to work with.

Another bonus is that [card overgrown tomb]shock lands[/card] are being reprinted! A good chance for everyone to beef up their mana bases.

The Mechanics

Detain

Azorius's mechanic is detain. Detained creatures cannot attack, block, or activate their abilities until your next turn. This new ability can be quite good in a format dominated by large, mana-heavy creatures. Although I could find it to be rather obnoxious when used in large amounts. Because many of detain creatures trigger when they enter the battlefield, I imagine pairing this mechanic with [card ghostway]flicker[/card] effects or [card sunken hope]bouncing[/card].

This seems unfair

Overload

Overload lets you cast a spell using an alternative (higher) cost. When you do, all instances of "target" in the text are replaced with "each".

Wow! What a wonderful mechanic for Commander. It becomes so much more powerful when there are multiple opponents. Because of how it's worded, paying overload will hit every opponent's permanent/creature/whatever while leaving yours alone.

I will also note that overload is the perfect flavor for Izzet. I foresee using many of these cards in my Commander decks.

Unleash

Rakdos's unleash mechanic lets creatures enter the battlefield with a +1/+1 counter at the cost of their ability to block. Sadly, this is quite underwhelming in Commander. Getting a +1/+1 counter isn't as much of an advantage in Commander as it is in other formats. Once you factor in the lack of defensive applications in a defense-oriented format, it seems the mechanic will rarely be worth it.

Scavenge

Creatures with scavenge can be exiled from the graveyard to put +1/+1 counters equal to their power on another creature. Scavenge can only be used as a sorcery, and except for one card (Slitherhead) always requires a mana cost.

The Golagari mechanic is certainly interesting. It is very thematic, but overall seems on the weaker side for Commander. I can see using a few in a deck that mills itself, but outside of that I don't see much use for scavenge cards.

Populate

Selesnya's populate puts a token onto the battlefield that's a copy of a creature token you control. The restriction is balanced by the way the populate mechanic is (usually) tacked onto cards with other effects.

This mechanic is very nice. I already have an idea for a deck that builds on this theme. The best way to use this in Commander would be to make a token deck (obviously), but one that primarily produces large creature tokens. Think Crush of Wurms.

Like scavenge, this is a mechanic your deck has to be built around. It is doable though, because of the large quantity of [card doubling season]cards that already work so well with tokens[/card].

The Legendary Creatures

What I'm most excited about from this set are the legendary creatures. I had mentioned in a previous article that my goal is to create a Commander deck for every color combination (27 in total) and this set provides me with some good choices for two-color commanders.

Azorius

Azorius's legend is Isperia, redone for the new set. The [card Isperia, the inscrutable]old Isperia[/card] was a quality Commander, and so is the new one. I can see trying to build a defensive deck with her, punishing opponents as much as possible for attacking you. Or, you could try to force your opponents to attack you to generate card advantage.

Beyond her draw ability she is a flying Craw Wurm, which is quite nice. Her downfall is that she costs six and only has four toughness, so it won't be difficult for your opponents to deal with her.

Golgari

Golgari gets Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord. This guy is insane!

Jarad has a lot going for himself. At only four mana, he should be quite large if you've built your deck around him. He has a sacrifice ability to take advantage of. If his mana cost gets too lofty, you can even let him go to the graveyard and sacrifice lands to return him to hand (where he'll always cost four).

I'm very excited to start brewing a deck for this guy. I think I'll probably scrap my other green-black deck and use Jarad instead.

Izzet

I'm pretty unimpressed with the new Niv-Mizzet. He's similar to the [card Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind]old one[/card], except he doesn't combo with Curiosity and what not. Overall he's a solid creature, but I don't find him to be Commander worthy. It would be difficult to justify him as a Commander since [card Jhoira of the ghitu]Jhoira[/card] would almost always be a better choice. He's just so difficult to build a theme around. I'm sure people will try him though, because come on, he's a legendary dragon wizard.

Rakdos

Another gem this set has to offer is Rakdos, Lord of Riots. He seems like a wonderful commander to build a deck around. He is cheap and very flavorful which makes for a quality deck. I like him because he encourages an aggressive Commander deck which you don't see too often. If I didn't already have a super fun red-black deck, I would make a Rakdos deck for sure.

Selesnya

Finally we have Trostani, Selesnya's Voice. This guy is pretty sweet. He allows for a dual-themed deck with his life gain and his populate ability. I plan on using this guy as a Commander and taking advantage of both abilities. He's also pretty durable with five toughness, and cheap at only four mana. I'm excited for this one.

Final Thoughts

I'm very much looking forward to this set, both for Limited and Commander. It has plenty of exciting cards and legends to bolster existing decks or create whole new ones. There are also several versatile utility cards, which are generally so vital to Commander decks.

One of my next articles will cover the creation of a new deck using one of these fantastic new commanders. Check back in the coming weeks to see what I can brew up!

Insider: Buy Low, Sell High

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Every indicator suggests that Return to Ravnica is going to be a blockbuster set. I have never seen booster boxes pre-sell so rampantly and I’ve never seen so much excitement about the power level of so many cards in the set.

To be a successful speculator, it’s often optimal to reign in our enthusiasm and keep our emotions in check. For some of the reasons I’ve discussed in my previous articles, we cannot let our irrational tendencies get the best of us during a time with so much hype.

It’s actually quite similar to the stock market – I always strive to sell during market rallies and buy while everyone else is paranoid. This requires nerves of steel at times, since it’s difficult to dump tons of money into an asset that is shrinking by the day. But if you have confidence that the market will once again hit new highs, you should rest assured that your stock will be safe as long as you’ve purchased shares in a strong company (chart from Yahoo Finance).

What I’m trying to get at is the fact that Magic right now is at one of these peaks. Return to Ravnica is expected to sell better than any previous set, and Magic’s player base will be at an all time high. We can use some concepts from economics to assess what moves we should make with our Magic collection in anticipation of the anticipated spike in popularity.

Sell High

Many Magic Cards, much like the S&P 500, are nearing their highest highs. As tempting as it is to jump in on these rallies, it’s often a risky endeavor to buy near such peaks. So keeping this in mind, let’s evaluate some cards near their highs that perhaps should be sold for profit taking while the selling is good.

First, take a look at Woodland Cemetery’s chart from blacklotusproject.com.

This card has risen in value so quickly that blacklotusproject can’t even keep up with the price. The card is retailing for $14.99 at Star City Games and it’s averaging $11-$12 on eBay. This is my number one sell call as of today. Zendikar Fetch Lands barely broke the $14.99 mark on Star City Games, and I bet you the Black/Green Verdant Catacombs didn’t reach these heights. There are more players in the game nowadays to drive demand up high, but it’s very unlikely you will have such a guarantee to make $10+ selling these than right now.

Blacklotusproject.com has had difficulty keeping up with another card’s price jump: Falkenrath Aristocrat

This card has gone from nearly bulk Mythic status to sold out at Star City Games for $17.99. I understand this is a sweet Mythic Vampire from an underdrafted set. There may even be some additional upside because of this. But holding onto your copies of this card in the hopes that it hits a “52-week high” every day is a bit reckless.

If you’re risk-averse like me and you’ve already doubled or tripled up on this card, take some profits off the table now while you can sell some copies of on eBay, keeping just a few behind only if you really think there’s more upside after Standard rotates and the entire metagame shifts.

I wanted my last sell suggestion to be an Eternal card. I thought extensively about what Legacy staples would be wise sells at this point. And while there may be a few, nothing was nearly as compelling as Standard cards. It just goes to show you how robust Legacy staples truly are cost-wise. So for the Eternal fans out there, you’ll probably be more interested in the Buy Low section.

The final Sell High suggestion I have is one that according to blacklotusproject.com has already begun a gradual decline.

Bonfire of the Damned got a lot of attention during its spike. But since Return to Ravnica spoilers began, I haven’t heard much about this card. Yet it’s still selling for $35 at auction! Like Falkenrath Aristocrat, this Mythic Rare is also from an underdrafted set. But I am more confident that selling Bonfire now is a good move versus the Vampire.

You could almost create a rule of thumb here: if blacklotusproject has caught up to the price hike of a given Standard card, there’s a good chance the hype is over. Perhaps this is worth expanding on in a future article…

Buy Low

If many hyped Standard cards are near highs, something else must be near price lows. I’ve got a couple ideas of what to buy across multiple formats.

Although it’s been mentioned before, I want to emphasize how cheap Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands are right now (chart from blacklotusproject.com):

When Modern was announced, everyone swooped in and bought tons of Ravnica Shocklands. But most people, including me, ignored Filterlands from Lorwyn block. I think, perhaps that was a mistake…

Take a look at the blacklotusproject.com chart for Mystic Gate, the Filterland parallel to Seachrome Coast:

Since Mystic Gate rotated back in 2009, the card has doubled in value. Filterlands see play in Modern and EDH, and so their value has gradually increased much like many Eternal cards do. I see no reason why the Fastlands wouldn’t follow the same pattern. I bought a set of 20 of these just last week at under $3/land and I hope to acquire even more through trades once Return to Ravnica is released.

That’s not all I’m buying into, however. I am also buying a relatively under-appreciated Dual Land: Bayou. The Black/Green Dual Land just has not kept up with the increases of its counterparts, and with the printing of Abrupt Decay, I feel like Bayou should eventually catch up. Take a look at the comparative chart from blacklotusproject.com, which highlights my point.

It seems that in winter 2010/2011 and again in spring 2012, Bayou missed out on a rally that some other Dual Lands participated in. Much like the gold/silver ratio inevitably returns to a mean, I feel the Underground Sea/Bayou and Scrubland/Bayou ratio should also revert back to its mean.

Lastly, I want to mention a card which, barring a major reprint in a Dual Deck, is destined never to drop in price again. Of course I am referring to Jace, the Mind Sculptor (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

While at its peak of almost $90 at auction, this card was the best form of liquidity you could own. The card was literally worth its weight in gold. After its banning in Standard and then Modern, the card saw a dark time where it was worth a “mere” $50. But as time passes, this card will eventually continue its climb. It may never hit the $90 price tag it held during Standard, but the scarcity of this card is a universal truth and you’re more likely to find Dual Lands in a player’s trade binder these days.

It’s Opposite Day

The main message to take away from this article is that I always strive to do the opposite of the market. This applies to my strategy in the stock market as well as the Magic Card market. Buying surefire staples like Scars Fastlands is such a wise investment while their at their “52-week lows”. By the same token, selling those hyped cards near their “52-week highs” is sure to net you ample profit.

Is it easy to time your transactions perfectly? Certainly not. You can drive yourself crazy trying to sell your Standard cards at their absolute peak, just like trying to pay the lowest amount possible on eBay for a Bayou will drive you insane! The key is to get in while no one is talking about a solid card and to get out while everyone is talking about a solid card.

~

Back by popular demand, here’s another set of random facts I’ve noticed recently in the Magic Finance world.

  • Star City Games is sold out of NM Umezawas Jitte at $29.99 and they are buying the card for $15. According to blacklotusproject.com, the average price on the Jitte is $16.75 and I have seen multiple auctions on eBay ending at around $15.
  • Karakas is retailing at $100 for NM English copies. Star City Games is buying NM Italian copies (yes, Italian) for $50, despite the judge foils. Wow.
  • The price on Clifftop Retreat has dropped to $7.99 at Star City Games and they can still be had for $5. This is the only Innistrad Dual Land I’m still actively buying, but only copies at or below $5.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Rotation Pickups on MTGO

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Online prereleases for Return To Ravnica (RtR) are expected to be firing by Friday the 12th of October. As soon as they begin, cards from Scars block and M12 will rotate out of Standard. Rotation has a large effect on the price of cards because Standard is the most popular constructed format. Come the middle of October, cards like the Scars duals, Green Sun's Zenith and Sword of War and Peace will have less utility and a price drop can be expected.

Many players have already anticipated this loss of playability. Sword of War and Peace has been on a rapid decline since the end of June. For speculators though, the absolute best time to buy up cards is approaching. Cards that were Standard staples from Scars block and M12 will soon be on sale as players sell their copies for whatever they can get. Eternal formats have been picking up lately online, but most players still play Standard or draft. And in order to draft, players need packs and tix, and when cards can't be played in Standard anymore, they quickly get sold into the market.

The Fetch Lands

Last year it was no secret that QS writers and forum dwellers were excited about the opportunity that came with Zendikar block rotating. The fetch lands were going to be on sale and these lands are all-format staples. It was a can't-miss opportunity. Marsh Flats, Verdant Catacombs and Arid Mesa all touched or dropped below 3 tix last year.

The bottom for these was the first week after Innistrad release events started. Although these three fetch lands are definitely lower tier, the recent interest in Legacy and Classic has driven up prices on all fetch lands. It took close to twelve months, but buying in last year on these lands would have yielded a nice profit at this point.

Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn were much more profitable due to their utility in Modern. Last year's PTQ season drove up prices enough that these cards nearly doubled in price by January of 2012. Playability in Modern matters. This is key when deciding which Scars block cards to invest in. If they are fringe or unplayable in Eternal formats, then stay away. Staples are what we are after. There might not be cheap fetch lands to gorge on this year, but there are a few good opportunities waiting.

Highlights from Scars block

Scars of Mirrodin

Mox Opal: A staple mythic, this is used particularly well in Affinity, making it the fastest in Modern constructed. The price of this card has been increasing lately, probably due to the recent interest in other Eternal formats, but regardless it should be looked at as a very solid investment. If the price weakens in October, be ready to buy.

Wurmcoil Engine: This card sees play across all formats. In particular it is used in the Modern R/G Urzatron deck which uses colorless mana to power out enormous colorless threats. I was concerned about the Urza's lands getting the axe in the banned/restricted announcement this week, but they dodged that bullet, so full steam ahead on this card.

Fastlands: These have been quickly coming down in price along with most of the cards that are rotating out of Standard. They have their place in Modern, particularly Seachrome Coast and Blackcleave Cliffs. Modern is tempo oriented so having dual lands that come into play with no drawback in the early game is important. These fit the bill and they are all going to be down in the 0.5 to 1 tix range. Backing up the truck and loading up on these is a good long term bet, with some potential for profit in the upcoming Modern season.

 

Mirrodin Besieged

Inkmoth Nexus: Real estate is a great investment in Magic, and this particular piece will be used in Modern Affinity and by casual players everywhere seeking to apply 10 poison counters to their opponent. The bottom on this one will be tougher to judge than the fastlands, but see what it reaches in the 3rd and 4th week of October. This is another card that will be a good bet in the long term, with some potential for short term gains.

 

New Phyrexia

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite: The most played praetor is also the most expensive. This card will have applications in any type of reanimator strategy and will hold long term appeal to casual players. This card compares favorably to the Eldrazi monsters such as [card Kozilek, Butcher of Truth]Kozilek[/card].

Kozilek and many of the other Rise of the Eldrazi (RoE) mythics have seen steady increases in their prices since they rotated out of Standard. New Phryexia compares well to RoE as both are 3rd sets and both have a number of powerful cards and large monsters such as the praetors and the chancellors.

Karn Liberated: A 4-of in R/G Urzatron in Modern. This is a good short term bet. Buy these during the RtR release events, anticipating to sell them by December when the Modern season starts. Online PTQs drive short term prices quite a bit, and this is a card that could see large price spikes due to it being a 3rd set mythic and a 4-of. This is another card that would be correct to back the truck up on.

Mythics for Redemption

In this article, I discussed the motivation for buying junk and low-priced mythics as a means to profit on demand from redeemers. In the following week's article, I suggested the New Phryexia praetors as good speculative investments. The best one so far appears to be Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger which has recently started increasing in price.

For mythics that aren't regularly played in Standard, price bottoms have no strong reason to coincide with the release of the Fall expansion. For this reason it is important to pay attention to prices in and around rotation, not just after RtR is released. All four of the cheaper praetors are still good investments, with [card Sheoldred, Whispering One]Sheoldred[/card] and [card Urabrask, the Hidden]Urabrask[/card] still near their bottom.

Although Karn Liberated is the most played of the planeswalkers from Scars block, all of the others have some appeal and are just about bargain priced at the moment. Looking at Nissa Revane's chart since that card rotated out of Standard gives us some guide as to where the price of [card Koth of the Hammer]Koth[/card], Elspeth Tirel, [card Venser, the Sojourner]Venser[/card], and [card Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas]Tezzeret[/card] might be headed over the next year.

Pauper Special

Pauper is a format that has seen consistent play on MTGO for years. Even pros pick it up now and then as it is an Eternal format that feels closest to basic Magic. Getting a two for one is about as good as it gets in Pauper and it feels great doing so! Poison strategies are feared in Pauper so there are a few potential pick ups from Scars block.

Mutagenic Growth and Glistener Elf are both staples of Pauper Poison. Scouring the classifieds for cheap copies of these cards might be time consuming for most, but it can be a fun way to dip your toes into speculating. The big caveat is that seeing large gains on these is unlikely and they should be treated as very long term holds, 2+ years at minimum.

Gitaxian Probe is a little different. It appears in Pauper Storm decks, but also has cross format appeal. Again, buying commons on MTGO is not the quickest way to earn a profit, but packing away a few of these for the distant future is sure to yield a pleasant surprise down the line.

Get interested in buying rotating cards during October. While players are cracking packs and enjoying the new cards from Return to Ravnica, this is when speculators should be paying attention to what is old and out of favor. Once Modern season rolls around, many of these cards will be back in demand. Also, redeemers will be looking to finish off their sets. Buying these cards in and around rotation ensures you are not overpaying for them and their are plenty of reasons to expect profits down the road.

Insider: Looking Forward, Looking Back (and Valakut!)

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Edit: Since I initially composed this article, Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle has been unbanned in Modern. The easy calls were in the Insider email, and I bought 19 Scapeshifts at $2 each, so I expect that to work out. I don't see a long-term spike over $7-10, though, so be aware of that. I also like Blood Moon as a possible hate card to tick up in popularity as it fights both Valakut and Tron. Now for your regularly scheduled article.

I want to divide this week’s article into two parts. The first is some financial thoughts on the spoiled cards so far in advance of my usual set review/prerelease primer next week, and the second half is, at least to me, more interesting.

I want to look back at Scars block and start talking about what cards are now good pickups as the set rotates. Basically everything in Ravnica is selling too high, as is usually the case, and the upside on the Innistrad duals has already been realized, so I’m off to look for the next opportunity. Which comes from going backwards.

First, the new Ravnica cards.

First off, I really like Collective Blessing, because it is only going for a dollar. The new Keyrunes also play well with this theoretical deck, and it’s a reason why I still really like Sigarda, Host of Herons. I understand Zombies is the biggest thing coming (I really do), but these G/W/X decks can easily go 1-3-5 on the mana curve and hit Sigarda on Turn 3.

That’s obviously not game over or anything close to it, but it’s very powerful. Add in some Gavony Townships, Collective Blessings, Lingering Souls, Charms and so on, and there’s a deck coming together there.

I also think Zombies is going to be insane. There are so many tools for aggressive decks, from RB to GB to Jund-colored strategies. We wrote off Huntmaster, but it’s possible we’ll see a comeback since he’s so good against these strategies.

Angel of Serenity is also way up since its spoiling (and subsequent Insider blast). I don’t think it will hold its pricetag at $15. Though the card is playable, it’s expensive and I’m just not sure the slower decks that could take advantage will have a place in the metagame, at least early.

Another recently spoiled card, Rest in Peace, is worth noting. It’s yet another card to hate on Graveyards, though this one does cost a card to do so. It’s also worth noting that it combines with [card\]Energy Field[/card] in Legacy, though so does Leyline of the Void. Maybe this card being in White rather than Black will make a difference and it’ll be worth picking up foils early, so keep that on your radar.

Past that, I need to get in some more testing with individual cards before my review next week, so that’s where I’m at on Ravnica.

What I do have, though, are some Scars picks that I think give us a lot of opportunity right now. Let’s begin.

Lands

There’s probably no better opportunity in Magic right now than getting in on Scars lands for super cheap. Cards like Blackcleave Cliffs and Seachrome Coast are heavily played in Modern. We’ve seen what that’s done to Zendikar fetchlands, and, while the effect won’t be as pronounced, it will be there. The pair of those is around $5 most places you look, and I expect that to fall to $3-4 in the next month or so while people rush to Ravnica cards.

That’s where the opportunity will be. People are already trading these around $3-4, and I think it’s hard to lose at that price. Two to three months from now people are going to realize they still need these for Modern and they will come back. I’m not sure how much the prices could spike this year, but it will stabilize them and then they will begin to go back up.

Asceticism

This has always been casual gold, and pretty soon it will really start to dry up from binders. This is going to be a $5 card in just a few years, and you need to start getting these (if you haven’t) before you lose the opportunity.

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

Interestingly, this is cheaper at SCG ($10) than TCGPlayer ($11.50). This is a Mythic, an EDH card, an Eternal card, a casual card… it hits all the checkmarks. Wait for this to drop in the coming months and then move hard.

Etched Champion

This already went through a spike last year, but it’s pretty much the all-star of the Modern Affinity deck. It’s between $2-3, but I watched these trade at $5-6 during Modern season. Affinity is a cheap deck for people to get into, so don’t be surprised to see these spike back up in popularity every year.

While we’re on this note, grab Memnites as well. It’s probably worth a little more than you’d think.

Mox Opal

Another really good pickup. This thing was around $20 forever, but it’s fallen all the way to $12 on SCG. Not only are Moxes always worth money, this card sees legitimate play. Like this for trade around $10.

Darksteel Plate

You already know this card is not bulk (and is good for a dollar bill from a dealer), but it’s about to become even harder to find.

Green Suns Zenith

This is probably the best card on this list to pick up. I like it at $5 (or less), since it’s a Legacy staple, even if it’s banned in Modern. As such, foil copies are probably your best bet.

Consecrated Sphinx

As long as this doesn’t get banned in EDH, its price is going to keep going up after the initial post-rotation drop.

Sword of Feast and Famine

This hasn’t seen a home in a while, but it’s still a Sword, and like the others in the cycle, will hold long-term appeal.

This is also probably the most likely from the block to see Legacy play, so that will buoy its price higher than the others.

Birthing Pod

This is another very solid pickup, since it’s a huge Modern staple. I expect this to double (it’s $3 now) over the next couple of years. Now that more people will have access to Shocklands, the barrier to entry into Modern will be even lower.

Surgical Extraction

This is sometimes played over Extirpate in decks that want the effect, and is always a card type popular with casual players.

Karn Liberated

This is going to hit Nicol Bolas levels soon. If that doesn’t make sense to you, keep in mind the Planeswalker version of Bolas was $20+ for a long time until they destroyed him with reprints. Karn seems a little less likely to be reprinted, since he’s not the Big Bad of the Magic multiverse. Really like picking these up in the next few months and hoarding.

Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger

Huge EDH card here. Already $3.50 on SCG and will be pushing past $5 in not much time at all.

 

Return to Ravnica looks awesome. But remember, there’s a lot of money to be made in the market where people aren’t looking, and that’s rotating Scars cards.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: The Devil’s in the Details, Part 1 of Who Knows

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It's Too Early to Review These Set Reviews!

Too Soon, Bro.

To start with, I’d like to lead by saying that most of the spoilers have been pored over by a plenitude of speculators, investors, traders, dealers and writers. If you haven’t read the rest of the QS content for the last couple weeks, I definitely recommend it. Both the new and the old names on the site have put forward some excellent points, and it looks like the inevitable rotation has kicked our creative juices into high gear.

To rehash: Zombies is obscene, Abrupt Decay is damn good but probably best in Legacy, new angel seems solid but expensive, Rakdos's Return is probably less playable than I think, and Snapcaster Mage has the potential to be totally awesome.

Just to cut off the urge to run to eBay, this doesn’t mean his price is going up much, if at all, but the utility of flashing back Dreadbore, Abrupt Decay, Mizzium Mortars, Unsummon, new super Unsummon, Counterflux, any and all charms... there seem to be a wealth of opportunities for our friend Tiago to shine. Sadly he already commands a high price for a rare and already sees Legacy play, so it seems unlikely that his price will see a significant enough jump to be worth putting real live money into.

Nevertheless, if I’m right, I recommend trading for them because of their liquidity and heavy standard play. If I’m wrong, even with a slight drop he remains a strong long term investment.

On a related note, don’t trade the foils away. I have high hopes for their value in the future. Legacy hard to find foils don’t drop in value regardless of playability, and highly played ones get obscenely high far more quickly than you’d think.

Herein Lies the Rub

Let’s talk for a minute about trading, however, and how to approach it in a world with increasingly prevalent technology. I don’t know about you, but I’ve noticed an alarming (for me) trend concerning the increase of smartphone trading over time. I recently spent some time at SCG Open Minneapolis, and almost three times as many trades I made involved a phone as didn’t. As a person who makes his money by inches, this is horrifying. As such, I’ve been working my patootie off trying to come up with a workaround.

Quite Right, Apathy House, KoTR IS Worth Less as a Foil.

Unfortunately, the most consistent method seems to also be the most difficult. My next project will necessarily have to be a cross referencing of prices via different sites, and a construction of the ratios between buylist values and price determinators like Apathyhouse.com, which is a favorite of the MOTL crowd, and the semi rationally priced magiccards.info.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of universal knowledge as a general rule, but these sites cause a lot of problems in trading.

Too often the trade comes down to dimes and quarters over the course of many minutes, and only rarely is it worth the time it took to a probably fair conclusion. For those of you who haven’t dealt with this, here’s what typically occurs: One or the other of you shows interest in trading, and the search begins. A collection of cards lies on the table and what would normally would be a few minutes spent hashing out a hypothetically small trade is instead an ordeal as your trading partner looks up each magiccards.info value on his smartphone’s mind numbingly slow internet.

Can You Tell I'm Spiteful?

Trades will typically fall into two categories - a trade worth money and a trade that’s really not. The first are your trades for multiple Legacy pieces, a couple of duals, a large stack of Standard staples. The second is a couple of interesting cards, the majority of which aren’t worth much. You might need that one Woodland Cemetery for your deck, or he might want your foil Lich-lord of Unx for an EDH deck. While this is what I advocate making your trading strategy based around if you intend to grind for value, it’s also the area of trading where smartphone trading is most abrasive to me.

It would seem at first glance that this is ridiculous. Why should I care when the stakes are so low? Why not be more irritated when the trade is for Wasteland? A playset of LEDs? With so much money on the line, it must be frustrating to see their undervalued dual jump in price by 20 dollars as their phone obnoxiously points out their mistake. Simply put, you can’t know everything. Sadly, my knowledge of Legacy prices isn’t perfect - very few people could make the claim that theirs was, and fewer still could back it up.

As such, I’m far more worried about losing money than I am making it in that particular field. Think about this from a logical perspective - if all bets are off, you have chances to make or lose money on mispriced cards. If every card’s value is known information, what’s there to lose? No matter what, you can trade for strange unknowns, safe in the knowledge that if all else fails, you can use eBay closed auction values and be happily secure.

I actually try to make Legacy trades as even as possible, since they’re the ones people watch, and those are the values I’m expected to know. In addition, those are the ones that hurt the most when they go wrong, so the 20 dollars I might make is quite bad for business.

People remember when you try to take advantage of them, and just as much when you try hard not to. Instead, since Standard trades are where I make my money, the problems smartphone trading cause are irrefutably frustrating

What Is This? Econ Class? LAAAAAAAME.

A high profile high end card like Taiga will see dollar values on eBay, in stores and on price compilers. The differences between prices will be consistent - you can always depend on an eBay price lower than the compiler by a standard amount, and lower than retail by another consistent number. Because price matters so much, and the value is higher, prices are forced to standardize to conform to expectations and demands.

Please Don't Be This Bored. I Try So Hard.

Contrarily, the same thing that makes low value Standard cards easy targets for grinders simultaneously make them hair wrenching to trade for when the guy on the other side of the table is smartphoning.

Because of their fairly low value, people will buy them at very different prices - a slew of people willing to buy a card for 2.00 on the internet when it retails at 1.50 will bump the price by as much as 30%, an appalling difference between its true value and its short term perceived value.

Thus, the problem becomes exactly the opposite of the Legacy situation - when you win, you don’t win much, and there’s very little chance of winning. Nevertheless, there’s a chance that you’ll lose, which makes this approach difficult, erratic and aggravating.

Simply knowing your values is no longer enough, and while you can still commit to the strategy in the hopes of making your money back, even assuming every trade is as good as it could be without smartphones, the time it takes to look up all 8 cards in the trade significantly limits the number of trades you can make.

Wait... Is That... An Actual Solution? My Time Wasn't Wasted?

The first thing I’ve found is that being forceful, but not pushy, will work wonders. Unlike the use of Star City for all of your pricing needs, rarely do price compilers churn out easy to remember, stable, or even even numbers.How do you trade a card at 1.16, one at 3.72 and one at 5.08? It ends up being practically identical retail and in some cases buylist, but God forbid if the guy with the first two feels like he’s being taken advantage of for the second, at a difference of 20 cents.

This is, of course, an exaggeration, but it seems that anything over about 40 cents difference makes people squeamish, and this means that in trying to balance the scales against all probability, the end result is that I give them 30 cents instead to make them feel more comfortable.

Saying I can trade for that at 3, that at 2, that at 5, and that at 9 always made me feel like a bit of a shark. Nevertheless, I’m coming around to that way of thinking. I’ve lost more than one trade this way, but it’s becoming more and more my approach to say things like ‘I’m willing to trade at that number, but because I think the card will go down, I’ll only trade for it if I get this card too.’

I first tried to round values up and down depending on playability, but too often I would get fed up people demanding my rounded down cards for their rounded up cards, and trying to game what little system I had in place.

Oh, a Cliffhanger. How Original.

As is readily apparent, this is an ongoing process and not nearly complete. Sadly it's taking longer than I'd like to get the data I need to come to a firm conclusion, but the more of this thought process I can get out into the community the faster we can come up with an effective way to approach this problem.

I absolutely want to keep you involved in the evolution of my approach to smartphone trading and to hear what you have to say - is this as much of a problem for you as it is for me? Are there ways you approach trading in which you differ from me? How do you feel about smartphone trading, and its implications on MTG Finance?

I look forward to reading what you think in the comments and continuing my odyssey (hyuck hyuck) in the future.

Yup. Just Like This.
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Tucker McGownd

Hi, I'm Tucker McGownd. I'm a low risk trader that spends most of my time in Minnesota, where I go to school, play magic, study for school, play Ultimate for my college team, study for school, and read. I've been playing for a long, long time (I first played during Mercadian Masques block, and first bought a pack in Urza's Saga). I was incredibly lucky when I cracked packs until I learned how much cards were worth, at which point I proceeded to open Thoughtlace in every set until Scars, where I picked up more than my fair share of molten psyche. I'm currently looking forward to the inevitable reprint of Chimney Imp.

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Insider: Looking Forward With Spoilers

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As of today, nearly the entire set of Return to Ravnica has been spoiled. No more guesswork, we now have all the tools we need to prepare for this season. As I discussed last week, I don’t suggest buying into sealed product of Return to Ravnica in large quantities unless you have a reliable and rapid outlet for your cards upon release. Separately, it’s now old news that Innistrad lands are a good pickup, so where can we go from here?

With the rotation of a big chunk of the U/W Delver pieces, many feel this deck simply won’t survive rotation, and I agree. Without the ability to Mana Leak a Day of Judgement on Turn 4, there’s nothing protecting the 3/2 insect from being swatted from the air. Even if Delver decks evolve to play Izzet Charm or some other countermagic, Supreme Verdict is simply too much for an aggro-control deck to fight through. This has a lot of impacts on what decks can exist now that aggro-control isn’t around.

The Return of Control

Control decks haven’t seen a ton of action in the last year. A few have had their moments in the limelight like U/B Drownyard, Solar Flare, and U/W Pristine Control. Traditional control decks like these were good in their own particular moment when Delver wasn’t as popular. Delvers ability to present a threat and protect it from removal for turns in a row squashed these decks from competition. We will now see some truly powerful control decks appear, most likely including Supreme Verdict and/or Terminus as sweepers.

The presence of Zombies means Terminus will be the trump sweeper for that matchup while Supreme Verdict will clean up all the other creature decks and buy a small amount of time against Zombies. The sweeper I expect to see less and less play? Bonfire of the Damned. The Mythic has been poised around $40 for quite some time now, and I expect it to finally come back to earth. $20-25 is a much more comfortable price for a card that is only played in one or two decks. The only decks that will realistically play this card are creature based aggressive or midrange decks that need to punch through an army of blockers. These decks are going to have a much harder time fighting through dedicated control decks, and Bonfire simply doesn’t do enough there.

If you are the control pilot, a reliable sweeper is more important than the one-sided nature or the damage to the face. I’d expect to see Blasphemous Act in a control build before Bonfire of the Damned. While I don’t expect its value to fall completely flat, I could see it being cut in half, which is enough for me to want to dump and rebuy around $20 in a month or two. If the mana is as easy as it appears it will be we may see a four or five color control deck featuring all the most powerful cards in the format. My bet is that Chromatic Lantern will appear in these decks, providing both ramp and fixing to impose their will on creature decks. I envision an EoT Cyclonic Rift as a sweet way to set up an endgame.

Red Deck Wins

It’s extremely uncommon for control decks to thrive just after rotation. Usually the reason for this is there is no shortage of aggressive creatures but there’s a limited amount of good answer cards. It appears this trend has changed, and that Control may find a presence. While a B/G Zombie deck is likely to exist, I always like to reconsider Red Deck Wins when it comes to this time of year, because as people are experimenting with new brews, Red Deck Wins punishes those who stumble.

That being said, I like picking up on Stromkirk Noble while he’s under $2 most places. This deck would likely also feature the new Red two-drop Ash Zealot. As an aggresive threat whose ability will also do extra damage from time to time it could slot right into this archetype. I also expect Flames of the Firebrand to be an inclusion in this deck. With the rotation of Arc Trail, this card is the most obvious replacement, and does a good job of what it’s asked. Flames of the Firebrand can be found easily under $1/set and I’m expecting that price to at least double if not triple. As an uncommon it could easily garner $1 per card, and I’m digging deep into these.

Graveyard Hate

They sure did print a ton of Graveyard hate! The card I’m most interested in is Rest in Peace. For 2 mana you nuke all graveyards and put a Leyline of the Void on all players. I expect this card to see play in all formats, especially Commander. As far as graveyard hate goes, this card is fairly complete and puts together two different hate abilities that are often both played on separate cards. While it’s already pre-selling at $4, I expect this to come down a bit, and gradually come back up over the distant future. As we see the price dip, let’s be prepared to buy in on this one. The quantity of graveyard hate has me less excited about the Jarad's Orders card we saw spoiled last week, as tutoring cards to your bin is only a solid Game 1 strategy given so much solid hate is available.

Curious Enchantments

I’m a sucker for enchantments that have powerful effects that can only be unlocked by crafty deck construction, and two have been spoiled that are worth considering. Mana Bloom is an interesting card that allows you to store up your mana from one turn to trickle into your future turns. It also bounces back to your hand if there are no counters on it allowing you to reload it.

It’s a very slow and clunky effect, but I don't know if an Enchantress deck in Legacy could make use of this. At worst it comes down for 1 and bounces the next turn allowing you to keep playing it every turn. If you’ve got some Enchantresses in play, its a engine on its own. While it pre-orders at only $1.25, I haven’t seen any creative ideas that warrant this being more than a bulk rare.

The other one is Search the City. While the end result of an extra turn is enticing, there’s quite a bit of work involved to get there. It can be similar to a Tome in the sense you could get a card per turn into your hand but its pretty conditional; however, if there’s a way to abuse this, extra turns get out of hand quickly. I’ve been fiddling around with creative ways to make this card work.

What other archetypes are supported? Is there any Innistrad Block cards that may see some sharp changes as a result? This is the type of thought process that puts you ahead of the pack when rotation comes.

Good Luck, High Five! Episode 3: The Sound of One Soul Snapping

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"Good Luck, High Five!" is back with another hilarious and insightful podcast!


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Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Show Notes:

Standard Decklists

Legacy Decklists

Turquoise Jeep "Put Your Hands On it."

Wisest Wizard Rules

Going Rogue and Gaming Expected Behavior

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Two weeks ago I expressed my beliefs about why going rogue in Legacy doesn’t really pan out, but I feel like in that sense Legacy is sort of an anomaly. I still support everything that I wrote and have yet to encounter sufficiently convincing counterpoints, but I think that it’s important for me to express my thoughts on the value of rogue strategies in other formats.

Of course, I should preface this by stating that I am by no means advocating playing something different just for the sake of being different. The other day on MTGO I was grinding a Mono-Red Trading Post brew in the two-man queues and ended up playing a match against a GW Humans deck. During the match my opponent called me out for playing a deck that was just worse than Black Market, to which I posited that he was playing a worse version of literally any other GWx deck conceivable. He replied with the all-too-popular “at least I’m not playing Delver” and took his loss.

Just playing something that nobody else is playing doesn’t give you any real edge. While I had never played against his deck before, it was easy to discern that it was just a conglomeration of “good” humans. The removal that is good against the Pod decks is going to work just as well on Champion of the Parish as it is on Restoration Angel. Not to mention that his deck had no means of taking over a game like a Birthing Pod engine of its own…

If you’re going to go rogue and succeed, then you have to put a little more thought into the process than “I hate netdecks”. Successful rogue strategies stem from creativity and strategic planning, not disdain.

When attempting to build a new deck the most important rule that must be followed is this:

Don’t Build Something That Loses to the Same Hate That Already Exists in the Format at Large

This might have not been the only problem with the GW Humans deck discussed above, but it sure is a big one. Sure, playing a Champion of the Parish into Mayor of Avabruck might be something that brings you great joy, but don’t even act a little surprised with both of these mans are Gut Shoted and your Hero of Bladehold gets Vapor Snaged until you die.

This was something that was rather challenging when I was building Mono-Blue Trading Post, as there were already Delver Sideboards packing Stony Silence and Ancient Grudge for decks like Naya Pod.

The solution that I came up with was building a sideboard/maindeck that allowed me to board out all of my artifacts that were weak to these cards (Pristine Talisman and Trading Post) for spells that embarrassed them, such as Consecrated Sphinx. While employing a semi-transformational sideboard is hardly an original idea of mine, it’s a tool that I feel that much of the community at large isn’t taking as much advantage of as they could.

By taking advantage of assumptions that your opponent will likely make about your deck, you can steal a lot of games that you probably couldn’t win without gaming their expected behavior.

My favorite sideboard that I’ve ever played was that of the Grixis control deck with which I qualified for PT Nagoya. It may not look like much, but I’d like to believe that those four sideboard Mana Leaks are a thing of beauty.

Before I get into that, here’s a little backstory.

This sideboard stemmed from something that I discovered the year before when I lost on the bubble of a different Extended PTQ playing a UW Stoneforge Mystic deck (long before it was ever cool in Standard, mind you). I don’t remember the exact list I had, but these are the cards that I remember playing:

Yeah, my deck was sweet. It was largely a MonoWhite Martyr deck splashing blue for a backdoor combo, Celestial Colonnade beats and Vendilion Clique. Of course, having not seen my list, my opponents consistently assumed that the blue was much more relevant than this. Namely, they respected the Mana Leaks that weren’t in my 75.

When most players see a deck playing in a controlling manner and generating blue mana, they almost immediately assume that their opponent is playing some manner of counterspell. When the most popular counterspell available is conditional on them not paying more mana, they’ll often wait until they can pay for their spell to resolve, and if you never had that counter in the first place then you just earned yourself a free ticket to the late game where your deck is presumably stronger than theirs.

Having a lot of instant speed action really helped reinforce the Mana Leak bluff, and this is something that sort of carried over into my Grixis list. With a dozen maindeck instant removal spells, I would very often be leaving up Mana Leak mana. The combination of opponents playing around potential Leaks and the grip of removal coupled to make my Jaces very strong. And then game two, after I had presumably shown them a large portion of my deck, I was able to board in Mana Leaks that they had never seen in game one and sometimes stopped respecting for game two.

While the time for this exact bluff has probably passed, I think that the general idea is something that is very valuable and I already see potential for a similar sort of advantage being made available in the coming Modern season with the help of a new card.

Spoiler Alert

I don’t think that it’s any secret that Abrupt Decay is going to be seeing a lot of play across multiple formats, but I do think that there is a small edge that can be gained in the beginning of Modern season simply by virtue of playing this card.

Personally I think that this card is a straight replacement in Jund for Maelstrom Pulse. It hits most of the same things, it’s uncounterable, costs one fewer mana and it’s an instant. It’s a hell of a lot better against Deceiver Exarch, at the very least.

More importantly, most opponents are going to respect Maelstrom Pulse by not committing multiple copies of their permanents. If you’re not playing the card, then you gain some tempo and save yourself a mana in the deal. You technically gain five mana in situations where your opponent plays something that you destroy at the end of their turn and you have a follow up sorcery-speed play on your next turn.

Sure, this edge might be minor, and it probably goes away after a couple weeks of Modern season if this replacement is widely adopted. But it’s just another thought to get the wheels turning.

~

In other news, Mike Hawthorne and I started recording a podcast for this very site two weeks ago! It’s called “Good Luck, High Five!” and it has been a great deal of fun to work on thus far. We’re really looking for as much feedback at this early stage in the process as possible so check it out and let us know what you think!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

The Worst Preconstructed Decks of Innistrad Block

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To night, day. To up, down. And to vanilla, chocolate. The things of the world have their opposites, so why should the precon decks of Innistrad block be any exception?

Last time we took a look at the top five, the very picks of the litter - those decks that for one reason or another inspired and impressed. As an added bonus, we even looked at the top two Event Decks that emerged from the block. This time around, however, we're headed down... down, down, to the bottom of the barrel. Opposites, right?

It's a fact of any rating system that not everything can be equal - why else have a rating system? And if there are winners, by definition there must also be losers. That isn't to say that those on the bottom end of the scale are terrible - if your top-end is "here's a free hundred-dollar bill" and your bottom is "here, have a fifty," that's still not a bad deal.

But no, no such relativistic positions will save us here - some of the decks we're about to spotlight aren't the marginally worst of a fantastic bunch... no, they're just, well... born bad.

If that's indeed the case, then it begs the question... what makes a deck bad? Let's have a look at our finalists and find out...

5. Carnival of Blood (Innistrad)

One interesting thing about the ratings we give the decks on Ertai's Lament is to see how they fall in the spectrum of the block. In this case, they quite literally selected themselves - five decks scored less than 4.00 out of 5. Coming in just under that mark is Carnival of Blood.

When the decks of Innistrad released, it was a lot of fun to tear into the first real tribal offerings in some time. Not every tribe was represented, of course - we'd never see a Werewolves deck for a number of reasons throughout the life of the block - but the main ones sooner or later got their turn in the spotlight.

In addition to Humans and Spirits, Innistrad gave us a Vampire-themed offering, Carnival of Blood. In a typical build, a creature-focused swarm deck lives and dies on its ability to go either around or through what opposes it, draining an opponent's life total dry. If the red zone becomes clogged and congested, however, these decks tend to stall out and then die as the opponent sets their game in motion.

Carnival of Blood tried both approaches feebly. It offered you a whiff of evasion with cards like Cobbled Wings and Gruesome Deformity. You got a sprinkle of removal and burn. But overall, this Red and Black deck couldn't deliver a single piece of targeted killpower outwith a singleton Fireball.

Instead, despite the set having several pieces of toned-down removal, you had to make do with two [card Tribute to Hunger]Tributes to Hunger[/card]. However thematic the selection, the Vampires - and by extension, the deck's pilot - deserved better.

4. Swift Justice (Dark Ascension)

When we assessed the deck, we concluded that the deck's name was "cruel, cruel irony" given that the deck wanted to behave like an aggressive Boros swarm decks with your average creature having a converted mana cost of three. If that was the only problem, we might well have soldiered on, but the deck had a few other things working against it.

First was the creatures' fragility. If you're paying that much for your beaters, you have a right to expect a bit of durability. Instead we're treated to a host of 1-toughness creatures that are begging to be traded out with the 1/1 Spirit tokens that are crawling all over the environment. Unless your name is Ashmouth Hound, that's a serious problem.

Just like the Vampires, Swift Justice struggled with removal. We have the White-feeling Burning Oil, which is highly conditional and can't tough nettling utility creatures that don't risk their necks in the red zone. For those, there was a pair of [card Wrack with Madness]Wrack with Madnesses[/card], but at four mana it was a bit of an ask for a sorcery-speed spell.

It's all well and good if you want to have an environment that promotes creatures smashing into each other rather than surgical removal through spells. But if that's the case, how far did they expect you to get with your 1-toughness dorks and a few fat angels?

3. Solitary Fiends (Avacyn Restored)

The best Intro Packs are often those that highlight and support a particular theme or mechanic of the set they are released with. A look at the top five shows this clearly to be the case, with decks like Eldritch Onslaught (flashback) and Dark Sacrifice (human sacrifice) making their way onto the list.

Of course, the unspoken assumption is that the mechanic or theme being highlighted is worthy of being called out. We've seen a number of mechanics come and go that weren't able to support a deck on their own, like imprint from Scars of Mirrodin, and knowing when to build a deck and when to pass is the very soul of wisdom.

Unfortunately, the thematic "bad guys are isolated" theme of Avacyn Restored might have played well in the flavour, but it didn't seem to translate all that well in practice. Aside from getting big guys more cheaply (Fettergeist) or a rare splashy effect (Lone Revenant), there really wasn't enough payoff for having to hamstring yourself on the battlefield. If you were lucky, you might find one of the only three support cards - singletons all - that rewarded the strategy (Homicidal Seclusion, Demonic Rising, Predator's Gambit).

One of the common charges leveled against exalted, the Bant mechanic from 2008's Shards of Alara that has made a triumphant return in Magic 2013, is that if your opponent manages to bounce or kill your lone attacker, you've essentially just [card Fog]Fogged[/card] yourself and handed over a turn. This is not unfair, but, on the upside, even the least of your creatures can become truly massive if you've found enough exalted support.

Therein lies the crucial difference. If your opponent solves your exalted attacker, you just attack with a different creature next turn. You might have "lost" a turn of offense, but if so you've lost just the one.

With Solitary Fiends, you don't have any backup support. If you're playing the deck as it was intended, that creature you just lost was your only one, and now you'll lose a second turn while you wait for your replacement's summoning sickness to wear off. Here's another point to consider: all those exalted guys just sitting around pumping up your champion? They can block, too.

Trying to mount a successful defense with Solitary Fiends is on par with trying to pluralize "Lone Ranger."

2. Slaughterhouse (Avacyn Restored)

This one had promise, oh did it have promise! Some of the best Theme Decks to have seen print are those that succeed at crafting an intricate sacrifice engine. Mirrodin's Sacrificial Bam and Coldsnap's Beyond the Grave are two that are held up as paragons of the archetype, and it was hoped that Slaughterhouse would do for Humans what the others did for artifacts and Insidious Bookworms (sorry, Humans).

Alas, it was not to be. If those other decks were finely-tuned chrome engines, Slaughterhouse was one held together with plastic tubing, duct tape and good intentions. Although it has moments of glory, mainly involving early deployment of [card Demonic Taskmaster]Demonic Taskmasters[/card] or the Demonlord of Ashmouth, the rest of the deck seems out of tune.

Too much of the deck seems to be fighting over too few sacrificial resources, though [card Butcher Ghoul]Butcher Ghouls[/card] and the [card Reassembling Skeleton]Reassembling Skeletons[/card] were a nice touch (a third would have gone a long way). Other options, like the Maalfeld Twins, are more clever than they are effective, and, given the mana cost pricetag, a luxury the deck can scarcely afford.

Indeed, that's another of the deck's ails - too many expensive things that don't directly move the deck forward. Raging Poltergeist. Grave Exchange. Even the ones that do synergise with the deck, like the aforementioned Maalfeld Twins and Gang of Devils, still clog up your hand and mana curve.

The deck could stand to be a few shades leaner, and the tools are there to polish it up quite a bit, but as we concluded in our initial review, "we have to take the decks as they are rather than how we wish them to be."

1. Deathly Dominion (Innistrad)

Is there something to the decks of the first set that make them particularly vulnerable to charting high on the list of infamy? In our previous installment, Scars of Mirrodin's Deadspread took top (dis)honours, and while a particularly clunky execution of totem auras snuck Rise of the Eldrazi to the top of Zendikar block, Zendikar itself took place and show.

To be fair, there's a limit to ambition in those first sets that's lessened as the year goes on. In the beginning, the available card pool is at its narrowest. Not only that, but we've only just seen the new themes and mechanics begin to be developed; often, they grow as the set goes on. Sadly, the bell tolled here for morbid, and it was a very quick and undignified burial.

For one thing, the Innistrad environment tended to put less emphasis on removal that we've seen in blocks like Scars of Mirrodin or Zendikar. This is fine- except the entire raison d'etre for the morbid mechanic is things dying. Your robust removal suite? A Prey Upon, a Doom Blade and a couple of [card Dead Weight]Dead Weights[/card] - that doesn't exactly scream reliability. It's especially difficult when some of your morbid creatures are so expensive, such as the Hollowhenge Scavenger and the Morkrut Banshee, and you have to add the costs of the removal spell and the creature.

That being the case, you'd expect the deck then to pack in a solid sacrifice suite, giving you 'free' ways to trigger your own central mechanic, but the sacrifice suite is wildly inconsistent. Your self-sacrificer, Brain Weevil, costs four mana, and there's not much else that really offsets the inherent card disadvantage of that path.

Gaining life with the Disciple of Griselbrand? Equipping a mediocre artifact in the Demonmail Hauberk? This was a deck that needed the fodder-generating power of the Jade Mage, who was in legal rotation at the time. Instead, we ended up with a deck we compared to Scars of Mirrodin's Deadpsread - a cool concept sadly let down by its execution and lack of development.

Sadly, although we're treated to a score or so of new Intro Packs each year, they can't all be winners. Some, like this block's winner, are good ideas with a disappointing execution. Others seem to have been troubled right from the start. Still, credit to Dark Ascension, which had the least number of entries on the list!

~

Last time we added a new bonus feature to our look at the 'best of,' picking the top two Event Decks. In the interests of opposites, our theme from the outset of the piece, here are the two that occupy the bottom two rungs for Innistrad block.

2. Deathfed (Innistrad)

Let me start by saying that Deathfed isn't a 'bad' deck, but someone's got to be at the bottom of the list. In another world, perhaps, the deck sits somewhere in the middle, but the block had some standout performances with this product line. In a nutshell, Deathfed is a self-mill deck that looks to exploit the steady stream of cards tumbling into your graveyard with graveyard-dependent beaters like Splinterfright and the Boneyard Wurm. This is a solid enough objective, given the inclusion of playsets of Forbidden Alchemy and Armored Skaab. Indeed, these latter two part of the core of the recent Magic 2013 Event Deck Sweet Revengeso clearly something's working there.

The problem with Deathfed was that it played out in a very pedestrian manner. You spend the early part of the game stalling and sifting and sifting and stalling, and for what? A fat Boneyard Wurm your opponent can chump until the end of days? A Bonehoard? The Splinterfright, at least, has that all-important trample, but it's just one card. Even the swarm of Spiders you could make with Spider Spawning isn't all that menacing when it costs a full seven mana- including one of your splash colour- to flash back.

The final nail in the coffin for Deathfed came a set later when it was reproduced in Intro Pack form for Dark Ascension's Grave Power. Grave Power had the very same strategy and even crossed over on a tactical level (see: Boneyard Wurm, Armored Skaab, Splinterfright, et al), but with some other splashier, more engaging cards like Ghoultree and- yes- Chasm Drake, it accomplished what Deathfed could not: fun.

1. Gleeful Flames (Dark Ascension)

It's hard to feel good about poor ol' Deathfed appearing here, since it actually rated fairly well but suffered from the quality of its peers. The same cannot be said for Gleeful Flames, which ranked well below.

Gleeful Flames is as good an example of a 'glass cannon deck' as you're likely to find. Loaded with four-ofs, it has a laudable consistency. But much like a Belcher deck, you have to have the right set-up from the start or it can all go pear-shaped very quickly. The creatures you're fielding are nearly all 1/1's, and if you can't find something to do with them - and soon - your odds of victory rapidly plummet as your opponent either starts deploying larger and larger threats or simply has more time to enact their game plan.

The deck also suffers from some questionable decisions. A Curse of Stalked Prey seems wildly optimistic, and it was seldom something we were happy to draw in playtesting, while a trio of [card Infiltration Lens]Infiltration Lenses[/card] seemed a shade too cute for its own good. Swapping the four out for even more burn would have helped even out the deck a bit. Our final word on the deck summed it up rather well: "there are players who don’t mind taking their lumps if it means that they get to shine brightly every now and again, and this deck is right in their bailiwick. For everyone else, we’d recommend giving it a pass."

~

Thanks again for joining me today in a walk down the halls of infamy. We review a ton of decks, and while we always appreciate the hard work and effort that goes into making them, sometimes a child really is just ugly. The joy from the best of the bunch are more than enough to offset whatever misery these un-magnificent seven have offered us, and will keep us playing Innistrad block long after the set's day has passed.

Jay Kirkman

@ErtaisLament

www.ertaislament.com

Jason’s Archives: Apocalypto, Escape from L.A. & SCG Lincoln

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Greetings, Speculators!

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

Let's face it, not everyone felt like going to Costa Rica for a Grand Prix this weekend. I didn't even feel like driving to Ohio for a PTQ, so Costa Rica was out of the question. Some west-coasters elected to go to the City of Angels this weekend to play in the SCG Open there. If you were there, you were privy to a controversy that had the twitterverse abuzz with frenzied activity for hours on Sunday night. Someone had played an illegal deck on camera and the judges just sat by and watched.

I'd Be Remiss If I Didn't Call That Sentence Sensationalist Journalism

Maybe that last sentence was sensationalist, but it was not inaccurate. It's called a hook. I'm told members of the industry use it to attract readers to the body of their work. The fact of the matter is that someone played a deck which, in the current rules enforcement framework, is not strictly legal.

Jeff Liu ran a deck in L.A. that some of you are familiar with, called "Four Horseman," so-named because... I have no idea. As far as names go, it sounds cool but doesn't tell you anything about the deck. In a lot of ways, it's the perfect deck name.

Four Horseman gets down by milling the bejesus out of itself using Mesmeric Orb and infinite untaps from Basalt Monolith. Then it gets a Blasting Station online (by saccing Narcomoebas to Dread Return Sharuum the Hegemon) and throws every available Narcomoeba at the opponent. When it runs out of them, it mills some more until it hits [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] to shuffle the any illusions back into the library and continue the fun.

Guess what happens each time you start the combo and hit an Emrakul before binning Dread Return? That's right, chief. You ain't goin nowhere.

Thanks for comin' out!

So What Exactly Is Illegal Here?

So the combo can randomly screw you a bit. What's the issue? Well, let's think about it. If the opponent has no way to disrupt the combo, you keep going, right? And even though there is no way to "whiff" exactly with the mill engine in place, your opponent can still demand that you demonstrate the ability to go off with the combo, which can take a long time if [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] keeps popping up early. This is a problem for several reasons.

First of all, you can't ask your opponent to agree to a shortcut. If it were a self-sustaining combo between three pieces you already had out, that would be one thing. But you have to be certain that agreeing to a shortcut would result in a particular game state. This is per rule MTR 4.2 regarding shortcuts.

Since you can't guarantee you'll get [card Sharuum, the Hegemon]Sharuum[/card], Blasting Station and Dread Return into the yard with three Narcomoebas in play before hitting an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card], you can't ask the opponent to shuffle up for game two. Now this is speaking strictly within the framework of the rules, and the opponent could concede once they understand the inevitability of the combo. However, you can't rely on that and hope to go all day without anyone asking you to demonstrate it.

Another issue is not knowing how many times you will need to mill yourself (and shuffle everything back in when you hit an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card]) in order to get Dread Return, [card Sharuum, the Hegemon]Sharuum[/card] and Blasting Station into the yard with an empty stack. Since you can't say how many times you will need to execute this loop before you get the combo, it's considered prima facie slow play.

To quote IPG-4.3 regarding Slow Play --

It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state.

A dishonest player could execute more loops than necessary in order to run out the clock. If you take 40 minutes to execute the combo game one, you are 5-10 minutes from victory in the match, and by the way you're allowed time to resolve each mulligan. Since it is impossible to predict (or enforce) how many loops will be necessary to get the rest of the combo on the board, it's an opportunity for slow play and makes the deck strictly illegal.

Now a judge can rule that the player be allowed to continue to compete in the event, which is what happened in L.A. Some of the twitterverse was not happy about it.

All of this goes to show a savvy player like Jeff can come up with ways to change the game state after a failure to go off in order to skirt the rule about an interation of the combo not having an effect on the game state and therefore resulting in a slow play penalty. Said Jeff,

There were a lot of goofy things I did to avoid making it an identical game state at various times throughout the day. Sometimes it was resolving a Narc, sometimes it was declaring combat, sometimes it was Cabal Therapying to change the number of creatures in play. Sometimes it was just casting an extra Ponder for whatever reason.

It is also notable that I did not receive a single warning the entire day, despite having three judges come by at various points, and all of my matches finished with plenty of time remaining in the round. Also, I only played the Orb/Monolith combo for game ones basically.

That last sentence alludes to the deck's ability to board into Painter's Stone and/or Show and Emrakul for games two and three.

In this writer's opinion, multiple judges clearing a deck/player means that the spirit of the rules were enforced, if not the letter. The combo wasn't used by Jeff in an unsportsmanlike manner and he avoided warnings due to his careful play and earnest reliance on winning with the combo rather than running down the clock. What the judges allowed was ultimately less disruptive than ejecting a player for breaking a finicky rule that was never intended to prevent a deck from being viable, but rather to discourage a style of play.

That said, I would not recommend playing this deck at an event where judges may rule against you to protect the integrity of the event. A slow play infraction is not only a bad way to lose, it's something that will follow you for the rest of your career.

City of Traitors Angels

As someone who once built a Knight of the Reliquary-Steward of Valeron-Knight Exemplar deck to test for a GP in Columbus so I could play a deck called "Knights of Columbus,"

Good name. Good....name.

I was sort of hoping someone would make an angel-themed deck to play at the SCG Open in LA. Angel of Glory's Rise is a card right now (don't tell the people who have been bulking them out to me all week) and Restoration Angel will be a card until it rotates. No one obliged me. Let's see what they did jam in the City of Angels instead.

Top 32 LA Standard Lists

Delver everywhere. Hooray.

The winning list piloted by Keyan Jafari jammed [card Talrand, Sky Summoner]Talrand[/card] which is more fun than if he hadn't, I suppose. Really, I'm just ready for this Standard season to be over.

Samuel Pardee's U/W Midrange list was the only interesting deck in the entire Top 32. It's good to see someone still remembers how unfair Consecrated Sphinx is. Expect to see Drogskol Reaver occupy that slot if we don't get anything promising from Azorius. So far the Sphinx-esque stuff they have showed me seems strictly worse than a [card Baneslayer Angel]Baneslayer[/card] that draws cards. Four Blade Splicer seems like the right number here, and a lot of phyrexian mana removal rounds out an interesting list.

Even the Wolf Run Blue deck jammed four copies of [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card]. I guess players are sticking with what they know (and already have built) with the season winding down. Blerg.

The Classic may have been more interesting.

Richmond Is Where They Filmed Portions of the New Lincoln Biopic

Richmond Classic Standard Top 16

More of the same. Delver won here too, but G/W Midrange was hot on its heels. Players are getting their kicks with Pod and phyrexian mana while they still can. A lot of pod decks in the Top 16 here, which is good to see. Birthing Pod is a fun card and we're going to miss it. Not many Delver decks, but it's still a bummer that a Delver deck won.

Not much you haven't seen here so we can probably just move to Legacy.

L.A. Legacy Top 32

U/W Miracle Control is proving to be a real deck. I got quite the primer on this deck during a sit-down with early adopter Kenta Hiroki. I learned that this deck requires incredibly tight play, but if you can manage it it has everything you need to get there.

The winner was Michael Hetrick who showed up loaded for bear with a sideboard of thirteen unique cards. It's still confusing to see Moat over Humility but a format with more Maverick and Merfolk is less bothered by Humility than it is Moat, I guess. Still, Griselbrand and [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] laugh at Moat and weep at Humility. Maybe the Moat in the winning sideboard and the zero copies of Sneak and Tell in the Top 32 say everything that needs to be said about the format.

Where's our Academy Rector deck? Finance pundits have been crying "BUY!" on this card since it was $12 weeks ago. It hit the $30 peak that was predicted despite materializing an astonishing zero times in a Top 32 since then. Who is playing this card? Where are they playing it? Until this deck starts winning stuff, maybe its $30 price tag isn't justified. I'd like to see a deck running this strategy crack the Top 32, but I am still waiting.

You know what else costs $30? Patrick Sullivan's entire deck. Burning his way to third place, Sully (as he likes to be called) was in classic form, casting burn spells at his opponent's face and laughing as they tried to extinguish the flames on their backs.

Burn gets there. It punishes bad draws and greedy mana bases. It punishes unfamiliarity with your own deck with straightforward lines of play. It is probably the hardest deck to master the way Patrick Sullivan has. It's really easy to deal 16 damage with a given hand in a burn deck. Unfortunately, you have to deal more than that, typically, and it's not always easy to see the best line of play until you've already run out of gas. I am a big fan of burn and I congratulate Sully on his success.

Six different decks in the Top 8 is encouraging to say the least. Legacy continues to be a dynamic format, and I'm looking forward to see how cards like Abrupt Decay affect the meta. I'm guessing Counterbalance's days are numbered. Legacy continues to surprise, with decks like "Four Horsemen" randomly popping out of the woodwork and perennial favorites like Goblins continuing to muster competitive showings.

So Long for Now

Again, check out the RtR spoiler page and leave me some feedback. We want to know if that's something you all like and want us to do with future sets.

Until next week, may all of your loops result in a fundamental change to the game state.

Insider: A Set Review of Return to Ravnica, Two Weeks Early

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I clicked over to MTGSalvation this morning to see what the three new spoiled cards were. Lo and behold, I saw nearly two hundred more than I had expected to be spoiled. Frankly, this is lame. If you're going to be the biggest vandal in Magic and bust open booster boxes to spoil a set, at least sign your work. Sure, there's a lot of chaff that has to go into every set, things for Limited that are not going to excite anyone during spoiler season. Two weeks early, though, and we know about 98% of the set. I feel for the writers who now have to pretend that what they're announcing isn't known to everyone who Googles RTR (the spoiler is the first result!). Anyway, we have a set to review. I'm going to give you my financial takes on the set, and I won't be alone. This week, you will read many set reviews and I suggest that you give each one some scrutiny. I'm reviewing mainly with an eye toward Eternal magic, which is my strength. Typically, there isn't much in a new set for Eternal formats, so I'll amuse you and me both with commentary on other cards. There are two kinds of financial reviewers; ones that have the guts to use dollar signs and hold themselves accountable, and everyone else. I'm striving to be the former, but with things like Eternal-specific foils, it's mainly a guess. Many of these cards are going to be worthless in non-foil and worth-something in foil (think Spell Pierce and Lodestone Golem). Let's take a look.

 

Angel of Serenity

4www
Creature - Angel Mythic Rare
Flying
When Angel of Serenity enters the battlefield, you may exile up to three other target creatures from the battlefield and/or creature cards from graveyards.
When Angel of Serenity leaves the battlefield, return the exiled cards to their owners' hands.
Illus. Aleksi Briclot #1/274 5/6

 

We have seen Angel of Serenity start out at $5, then $7, and now $10. I don't think she's done climbing. Patrick Chapin gushed about the card in his article this week, spending thousands of words on the Angel and her infinite interactions. Patrick knows what he's talking about and he especially knows tap-out threats. This is the sort of card that completely swings a game and wins you games you had no business winning. You're getting beat by four monsters and then she comes down, eats three and holds off the fourth. Or she rebuys your Restoration Angel and Snapcaster Mage when she dies. Or she shuts down all of the defenders that an opponent has and cruises in. $10 is not her upper limit. I think this card will hit $15 on pretty good odds.

Eternally speaking, she's not good enough in older formats, but she might shine in Modern. Here's my thinking: UW Tron loves this kind of card, the big, rewarding monster. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite is the typical reanimation target and that kills a whole lot of stuff. On the other hand, it does not stop Tarmogoyfs and a few other really annoying problems. I can see her coming out in a Gifts deck, where hardcasting is reasonable, or being reanimated the old-fashioned way. She's also a fine Birthing Pod target if you want to get up to seven mana.

 

Rest in Peace

1w
Enchantment Rare
When Rest in Peace enters the battlefield, exile all cards from all graveyards.
If a card or token would be put into a graveyard from anywhere, exile it instead.

Everything seems geared toward hating the graveyard these days and this is one of the more spectacularly-hosing varieties. It's not going to see much Standard play because it doesn't cantrip like Ground Seal, but it can see some profound Eternal play. Vintage decks can easily support five colors, often dipping into White for Swords to Plowshares. This, like Leyline of the Void, can make an infinite combination with Helm of Obedience. Since the Helm never sees a monster hit the graveyard, it mills an opponent's deck if all you do is pay x=1. As this fact becomes more public, expect people to try more Helm decks. In Legacy, using Rest in Peace and the Tax-Rack engine to set up Helm is a natural course and I expect people to give it a try.

Helm has dropped from $8 to about $3 these days. Pick some up if you feel lucky.

Rest in Peace demands a lot from a Vintage deckbuilder; it won't do a thing versus Workshops, but it crushes Dredge and can stop Blue decks pretty well. Keep an eye on foils of these; the regular versions are selling for $2, which will go down, but Vintage players could show some love for this in foil form.

 

Sphere of Safety

4w
Enchantment Uncommon
Creatures can't attack you or a planeswalker you control unless their controller pays {X} for each of those creatures, where X is the number of enchantments you control.
Illus. Slawomir Maniak

 

This is big; really big. Moat is stupid expensive at this point and the most prolific user of Moat is Enchantress. This is a good counterpart to Moat and will compete for slots. I don't think Enduring Ideal is a worthwhile Modern deck, but this can have a home in that, too. This is an uncommon, which means that the regular version won't be worth a thing. Keep an eye on foils, though; Enchantress players love to foil out their decks. You need look no further than Sterling Grove to see a good example of how you can profit from this.

 

Cyclonic Rift

1u
Instant Rare
Return target nonland permanent you don't control to its owner's hand.
Overload 6{U} (You may cast this spell for its overload cost. If you do, change its text by replacing all instances of "target" with "each".)
The Izzet specialize in unnatural disaster.

Now what makes Cyclonic Rift interesting is the instant speed. If this were a sorcery, we simply would not look at it. I think Overload is going to make for great Control decks in Standard, but the Rift also has some nice applications for Eternal formats. Seven mana is not a big challenge to get to with Mana Crypt and Tolarian Academy and the end result is a big deal. Hurkyl's Recall is better against Workshops, but this is maindeckable bounce. I cannot accurately say what this is going to do in Standard. but again, the foil market in Vintage can add a boost to this. I really feel like Cyclonic Rift is going to be a big deal in Standard, but it has to compete with Unsummon. We'll see.

 

Jace, Architect of Thought

2uu
Planeswalker - Jace Mythic Rare
+1 : Until your next turn, whenever a creature an opponent controls attacks, it gets -1/-0 until end of turn.
-2 : Reveal the top three cards of your library. An opponent separates them into two piles. Put one pile into your hand and the other on the bottom of your library in any order.
-8 : For each player, search that player's library for a nonland card and exile it, then that player shuffles his or her library. You may cast those cards without paying their mana costs.
Illus. Jaime Jones #44/274 4

 

Though a Standard standout, I see no home for this guy in Eternal. The older formats have the better Jace and Modern has too many monsters dealing damage for this to survive.

 

Sphinx of the Chimes

4uu
Creature - Sphinx Rare
Flying
Discard two nonland cards with the same name: Draw four cards.
Illus. Greg Staples #52/274 5/6

 

Sphinx is Dredge's best friend right now. I'm even considering it in Modern, if you can believe that, because discarding two like-named dredgers with Sphinx will probably let you mill your deck on the spot. The problem is that I don't know how you get this into play without Dread Return! In Legacy and Vintage, it's a different animal, since you have the reanimation spell. That said, I don't know if you have enough time in any Eternal format to set this up. I like it a lot and using Sphinx to mill your whole deck is pretty cool. I have a feeling that this is going to be regulated to casual decks using Squees and Punishing Fires, though. They're pre-selling for a quarter apiece, which is probably an accurate price.

 

Desecration Demon

2bb
Creature - Demon Rare
Flying
At the beginning of each combat, any opponent may sacrifice a creature. If a player does, tap Desecration Demon and put a +1/+1 counter on it.
Illus. Jason Chan #63/274 6/6

 

I was an early fan of the Demon and I still like it. I bring it up here because I think it has some good applications in Modern Jund. That deck loves efficient finishers and getting lots of value and the Demon is superb. Either it munches down a critter every turn, fulfilling all of those dreams of attrition, or it does a punishing pile of damage in the air. Jund is a popular deck and it often has problems sealing the game after stabilizing. I could see this demon coming in through the air to solve that issue.

 

Vandalblast

r
Sorcery Uncommon
Destroy target artifact you don't control.
Overload 4{R}

 

Can you believe that we ran all through black and most of Red before we hit another winner? With Eternal cards, that is often the case! There is a big barrier to entry because of the power level, but sometimes you get cards like this one that play into the very different dynamics of older formats. In both Vintage and Modern, Vandalblast is sure to be a staple. It kills the early Lodestone Golem in Vintage or stomps Affinity in Modern. I like this a lot as a sideboard card. Shattering Spree, now $4, is a go-to in both formats, as is Ancient Grudge. This is easier on the mana and while it lacks the speed of Grudge, it can comprehensively handle threats.

I tested a lot of Ancient Grudges in Modern against Affinity and I found that they just did not carry enough water for sideboards. The problem was that you would take out their Cranial Plating but then you could not touch the underlying Etched Champion, so you ended up dying to that and random beats. This resets the board quite nicely, even clearing out the Champs!

There is precedent for sweeper cards like this to rocket up in price over time. Foils of this are obviously a good grab, but bear in mind that Shattering Spree is probably worse than this most of the time and it's still got a good price tag.

 

Abrupt Decay

bg
Instant Rare
Abrupt Decay can't be countered by spells or abilities.Destroy target nonland permanent with converted mana cost 3 or less.
The Izzet quickly suspended their policy of lifetime guarantee.
Illus. Svetlin Velinov #141/274

 

I suppose the big question on this card is "where is the price going to settle down to?" Maelstrom Pulse is the next closest comparable card and it has been expensive throughout its life. Maelstrom Pulse was in a reasonably-loved set with Mythics, so it's fitting the same mold as Abrupt Decay. However, Maelstrom Pulse isn't an Instant and three mana is a gulf of difference over two in old formats. This can't kill Jace or Lodestone Golem, but it clears out Chalice of the Void, Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf and Counterbalance. That's a pretty good scorecard. I feel like this is the card that people dedicate decks to, much like Chris Pikula dedicated his Deadguy Ale deck to Vindicate and found a deck that could work around it. This is a monster of a card.

These are preselling for $15 right now and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you'll see that price or near to it for its Standard lifespan. This is dependent on there being a half-decent G/B/x deck that comes along, but it's not unreasonable that a Farseek deck runs one Overgrown Tomb to turn on its Decays.

 

Counterflux

uur
Instant Rare
Counterflux can't be countered by spells or abilities.
Counter target spell you don't control.
Overload 1{U}{U}{R}
Illus. Scott M. Fisher #153/274

 

Counterflux is going to be a dud all over. It has to compete with Cancel in Standard, which people hate playing to begin with. If it exiled a spell, it would be a big role-player, since it could counter all of the rares in RTR that are otherwise unstoppable. As it is, Counterflux does not add much to Last Word or Mindbreak Trap.

 

Detention Sphere

1wu
Enchantment Rare
When Detention Sphere enters the battlefield, you may exile target nonland permanent not named Detention Sphere and all other permanents with the same name as that permanent.
When Detention Sphere leaves the battlefield, return the exiled cards to the battlefield under their owner's control.
Illus. Kev Walker #155/274

 

There's this joke on MTGTheSource, a big Legacy forum, that makes "Awesome" a keyword. It means "this is blue so you can pitch it to Force of Will." Otherwise boring cards are Awesome for the fact that you can send them away to fire up the counter. Detention Sphere is getting a lot of Legacy attention because, like Thopter Foundry, this card has Awesome and it is a reasonable card for archetypes that used to hurt for this effect. Maybe you could not justify those Oblivion Rings in Delver or a UW Control deck, but this is a fine piece of tech because it's not going to be totally dead. It also comes down to kill zombie armies from Dredge and really screw up Elves and other swarm strategies. It's going to be a hot Standard card and I don't think Legacy is going to warp its price too much, but remember that Legacy players will likely want these.

 

Epic Experiment

xur
Sorcery Mythic Rare
Exile the top X cards of your library. For each instant or sorcery with converted mana cost X or less among them, you may cast that card without paying its mana cost. Then put all cards exiled this way that weren't cast into your graveyard.
Illus. Dan Scott #159/274

 

This otherwise-silly card is notable because it could be a great machine in UR Storm in Modern. UR Storm has to do this really impoverished mana-hungry race to 2RR and 10 storm to make two Grapeshots (or make Remand tricks) or try and fuel Pyromancer's Ascension and get somewhere with it. Epic Experiment is basically a card where hitting X=7 or more will just win the game. Storm runs enough cantrips that it can get greedy on lands and it has enough mana acceleration that this spell can pay for itself post-flip if nothing else. I also like that it's bonkers if you hit a Wheel of Fate and see seven new cards. Keep an eye on Wheel and Epic Experiment.

 

Rakdos Charm

br
Instant Uncommon
Choose one: exile all cards from target player's graveyard; or destroy target artifact; or each creature deals 1 damage to its controller.
"Let all feel joy in pain."
-Rakdos
Illus. Zoltan Boros #184/274

 

Rakdos Charm: reactions of puzzlement from Standard players, anger from Legacy players and love from Vintage players. Its two modes are basically "BR: screw up the one Vintage strategy or screw that other one up." It's very easy to run in Vintage and solves a lot of problems. This is going to be abysmal in Standard but a sure hit in foil form in Vintage. Scoop up copies and put them on the internet!

Sphinx's Revelation

xwuu
Instant Mythic Rare
You gain X life and draw X cards.
"Let the knowledge of absolute law inspire you to live a life of absolute order."
Illus. Slawomir Maniak #200/274

 

I am specifically watching U/W Tron with this. I have had enough times where I am out of gas and I need to both stay alive and see some juice. This solves both problems, but it's probably too expensive to cast if X is anything less than 3.

Supreme Verdict

1wwu
Sorcery Rare
Supreme Verdict can't be countered.Destroy all creatures.
Leonos had no second thoughts about the abolishment edict. He'd left skyrunes warning of the eviction, even though it was cloudy.
Illus. Sam Burley #201/274

 

If you needed more evidence that Merfolk is going to get out and stay out, look at this. Supreme Verdict has Awesome, which makes it great in Legacy. It's no stretch to run it in any deck that otherwise wants Wrath. This represents a long-term bearish position on Merfolk decks; unwind your positions on Cursecatchers if you still have them.

 

Treasured Find

bg
Sorcery Uncommon
Return target card from your graveyard to your hand. Exile Treasured Find.
Illus. Jason Chan

 

This is a Regrowth, which is restricted in Vintage. The power of Regrowth was that you can use it to get a lot more Ancestral Recalls or Black Lotuses. Treasured Find is going to see a bit of exploratory play in Vintage and I want to run them alongside Gushes. Getting access to five Regrowths with Gush is really, really twisted. The typical "get these in foil" line applies, especially because they are going to see some sure Commander love too.

Dryad Militant

gw
Creature - Dryad Soldier Uncommon
If an instant or sorcery would be put in a graveyard from anywhere, exile it instead.
"We will defend the worldsoul from Izzet 'progress' at any cost."
Illus. Terese Nielsen #214/274 2/1

 

I don't see these as the next coming of Kitchen Finks, but damn... these Militants are good. Currently selling for $1.25, I see these as underpriced and here's why. Every deckbuilder in Standard that starts with W or G and wants to win through combat damage is going to put "4 Dryad Militant" on the deck registration sheet and then have to talk themselves out of it. This is a "justify not having it" and not "justify playing these" kind of card.

 

Nivmagus Elemental

ur
Creature - Elemental Rare
Exile an instant or sorcery spell you control: Put two +1/+1 counters on Nivmagus Elemental.
When it escaped, the experimenters hesitated. It would cause untold havoc, yet they wished to see it in action.
Illus. Mike Bierek #219/274 1/2

 

I had not originally seen that this permanently pumps the Elemental. That changes things a bit. I see someone trading a junk spell in hand to pump this up. Thus, it becomes a 3/4 for let's say, 1UU that makes you discard a card. Is that awful or what? Now if we dump two spells into this, we've got a 5/6 with some pretty juicy stats, but we are also out two cards unless we have stack tricks like Isochron Scepter to work with. I see Storm decks sideboarding these but man, how often do you want to just throw spells away? Is an opponent going to care that you ate the spell that they were countering? Nivmagus Elemental looks like too much work to get going, and every spell counts.

This is, simply, not a monster that you want to rip off the top and it's also not something strong enough to build around. These have cooled to about $3 and that seems about right for them. This is not a Delver.

 

That concludes my Eternal-centric set review. What did I miss? What do you disagree with? Ultimately, RTR has a bunch of great role-players but like the original Ravnica, it does not have much that fundamentally changes Eternal formats. It still looks great and I'm hoping that the remaining dozen cards (including a few mythics!) are worth the wait.

 

Until next week,

-Doug Linn

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