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Colorless Matchup Guide: Burn and Infect

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Along with Affinity, Burn and Infect once made up the Holy Trinity of blitzing wins in Modern. Times have certainly changed. The Affinity we knew now relinquishes most of its shares to Hardened Scales; Infect's loss of Gitaxian Probe and inherent softness to Fatal Push put a serious dent in its former reign; Burn has more functional Goyfs to worry about than ever. But all three decks continue to exist, with the latter two apparently on the rise.

As far as the Colorless Matchup Guide goes, we've already explored beating Affinity in detail. This week deals with aggro-combo's other Older Gods, Burn and Infect. Both are critical-mass-style decks aiming to assemble a high volume of a certain kind of spell, and both are fine matchups for Colorless Eldrazi Stompy—given, of course, a practiced pilot.

For reference, here's my current list (unchanged since the last Matchup Guide):

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eternal Scourge
4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Matter Reshaper

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Scavenger Grounds
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Gut Shot
1 Gemstone Caverns

This has been my go-to build for a while, and I'm not counting on modifying it any time soon. Control decks have taken a light dip in popularity, and Bridgevine has settled out of the top tier, so respective additions of another Spyglass or Surgical now seem excessive. I think if the metagame requires Colorless to be doing something else, such as punishing creature swarm decks, it calls for a different Eldrazi deck altogether—perhaps even my TarmoDrazi build from last week! In an open field, though, or complete darkness, I would sleeve up the above.

Burn

Burn, by Collins Mullen (2nd, SCG Columbus Team Open)

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Boros Charm
4 Searing Blaze
2 Skullcrack

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
3 Arid Mesa
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
3 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Destructive Revelry
3 Satyr Firedancer
2 Path to Exile
2 Searing Blood
2 Exquisite Firecraft
1 Skullcrack
1 Rest in Peace

Game 1

I've heard chatter lately in the Eldrazi communities I frequent about Chalice of the Void not being so great anymore, a scenario that's led to the relative dip in performance of Eldrazi decks. I still contend that Chalice is great if backed up by enough pressure or dropped ahead of curve, both things Colorless Eldrazi Stompy is made to do. In any case, Burn is not one of the decks that can shrug off a turn-one Chalice.

Chalice should be slammed as quickly as possible against Burn—before removal; before creatures; before anything. It can be tempting to curve out naturally with a 3/3 blocker for Guide and then a turn-three Seer, but landing Chalice first outweighs any other plans we might have in game 1, even if we're under pressure. After taking some damage, we can stabilize with Chalice on board and kill opponents before they draw enough two-drops to finish the job.

A key skill to master, and one that comes with many reps, is reading the opponent's hand based on their fetching and sequencing. The information gleaned helps Colorless make crucial decisions that line up optimally against Burn's draw. Some examples:

  • If opponents fetch-shock turn one, they may not have any other lands; otherwise, they'd get a Mountain.
  • If they cast Lava Spike, they don't have one-drop creatures or Rift Bolt, and probably have one or more of Searing Blaze, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Boros Charm—high-impact cards that compensate for not setting up an attacker.

One common decision that benefits from this sort of close-reading is whether to cast Scourge or Reshaper first. Scourge walls Goblin Guide, while Reshaper just trades with it. But Scourge is also removed by literally anything, including Searing Blaze without landfall. As we're unlikely to have tons of mana game 1, let alone enough to cast all our spells,, exiling Scourge with its ability is similar for Burn to just killing it. We'd much rather Reshaper die to a spell, since in doing so it often nets us tempo by casting a creature or playing a land off the top of our library.

In the event that we know our opponent's on Burn, copies of Dismember and Smuggler's Copter are functional mulligans in an opener. We almost never want to see or cast these cards in a game against Burn. As they're still in our deck for game 1, the best we can do is ship the hand for something else or keep our otherwise great hand and simply take the minus on the chin.

Sideboarding

-2 Smuggler's Copter
-4 Dismember

+3 Ratchet Bomb
+2 Spatial Contortion
+1 Gemstone Caverns (play and draw)

Burn is too aggressive a deck for us to ever want to crew Smuggler's Copter. In this kind of matchup, we aim to deploy a new threat as a blocker each turn while attacking with the rest of our squad. The pseudo-haste from Copter works against that plan.

While a turn-one Dismember on Goblin Guide or Monastery Swiftspear can pay off in game 1, the card's still a no-brainer cut during sideboarding. Creature removal is valuable in this matchup—just not when it Boros Charms us! On that note, Spatial Contortion fills Dismember's shoes admirably.

Ratchet Bomb was once a card I once hated siding in against Burn, but had to for lack of something else to replace Copter and Dismember. That was before Ensnaring Bridge took off as a common tech for Burn decks against large creatures. We cannot beat a resolved Bridge except in niche scenarios, such as when opponents do have cards in hand and are at a low enough life total for manlands to tie things up. Even with Chalices on 1 and 2, Burn can take the game with Rift Bolt, Exquisite Firecraft, and Risk Factor should they have enough time to draw those cards. Bomb teams up with Thought-Knot Seer to prevent Burn opponents from cheesing wins. It also has the pleasant upside of killing a creature or two sometimes.

Gemstone Caverns comes in instead of the fourth Bomb for a couple of reasons. For one, with 3 Bomb in the deck, we're likely to see one should Burn have Ensnaring Bridge. Any copy beyond the first tends to be superfluous, especially since there's no guarantee Burn draws Bridge even if they do run it. The other reason is as intuitive as boarding out Dismember: we need to make our land drops against aggressive decks. If we're not deploying threats and disruption throughout the game, Burn will beat us, no matter how fast the Chalice comes down.

Post-Board

Burn can have a few different strategies after siding. For starters, the deck's colors can vary. Builds with green have a potent answer to Chalice of the Void in Destructive Revelry. If opponents search Stomping Ground in their first two land drops, they probably have Revelry in hand, and are also probably light on lands—otherwise, they'd wait to reveal the green until later. By fetching it fast, they're opening themselves up to Ghost Quarter cutting them off the color for good, although most Burn pilots don't recognize that we have access to this play.

When opponents telegraph a Revelry hand (anemic starts also signal the instant), Quartering the green or playing Thought-Knot Seer first are acceptable detours en route to resolving Chalice. Another solution is to skip 1 and resolve the first Chalice on 2. This play is a bit riskier, since Chalice on 2 also counters Ratchet Bomb, meaning we'll have no way to remove Ensnaring Bridge. It also counters Eldrazi Mimic and Spatial Contortion. Nonetheless, Chalice on 2 tends to hurt Burn more than it does us, and to cripple Burn more after siding than a Chalice on 1 would. A third anti-Revelry measure is to not cast Chalice until Seer can tear it from the hand. This line requires us to have other plays, such as casting creatures, and works best with a Spirit Guide.

Ensnaring Bridge isn't a card all Burn decks run (the one above doesn't, for example), but it's the archetype's single best card against us. Generally speaking, either we remove Bridge or we die. Seer should be saved until the turn before Burn will have three mana to cast a Bridge, and then slammed to clear the coast. We almost always choose Bridge over other targets.

Other tricks Burn can have up its sleeve include Searing Blood, which hassles Scourge and Mimic but thankfully isn't a very popular side-in from Burn players. Same deal with Grim Lavamancer. There's also Deflecting Palm, which makes Smasher scary for everyone and incentivizes us to peek with Seer before committing to big attacks into untapped Inspiring Vantages. Path to Exile is a card we're sure to see in game 2, but we can use it to our advantage by leading with Reshaper and Seer and making the most out of the extra land. Finally, Burn with Risk Factor has experienced minor success online.

Some more notes on Burn:

  • Throwing Quarter at white sources can force Burn to fetch-shock and take extra damage to cast their white spells. Quarter should be paced so that Burn players can't make use of the extra mana from Mountain entering untapped, i.e. on our turn after they've telegraphed no Lightning Bolts
  • Burn usually plays 3 Mountain
  • Exquisite Firecraft can target and kill Thought-Knot Seer

Takeaways

On paper, our Burn matchup looks amazing. We've got a functional Goyf with Inquisition of Kozilek attached in Seer, plenty of Wild Nacatl-size bodies between Reshaper and Scourge, Smasher and manlands to close out the game, and full sets of Chalice of the Void and Simian Spirit Guide to blank enemy hands before opponents even make one land drop. But the matchup can be close in practice, especially against the rare Burn pilot who boards correctly. Stacks of Paths, Searing spells, and Bridges can line up to complicate our victory.

Infect

Infect, by Bradley Tinney (4th, GP Detroit)

Creatures

4 Glistener Elf
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Blighted Agent
2 Ichorclaw Myr

Instants

4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Blossoming Defense
4 Might of Old Krosa
4 Vines of Vastwood
3 Groundswell
3 Become Immense
1 Spell Pierce
1 Dismember

Sorceries

1 Distortion Strike

Enchantments

2 Rancor

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
1 Verdant Catacombs
2 Windswept Heath
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Forest
2 Breeding Pool
2 Pendelhaven
4 Inkmoth Nexus

Sideboard

1 Spell Pierce
1 Dismember
2 Invisible Stalker
2 Nature's Claim
1 Gut Shot
1 Shapers' Sanctuary
1 Dispel
1 Pithing Needle
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Spellskite
2 Torpor Orb
1 Wild Defiance

Game 1

As against Burn, our first order of business vs. Infect is resolving Chalice of the Void. Chalice prevents Infect from casting most of its pump spells, forcing it to wait until later to kill us with Become Immense. It also blanks some of their creatures. We have some time early on to stick the artifact, as taking a few hits from Glistener Elf or Blighted Agent as we sculpt our hand and board isn't so scary when we can rule out +4/+4 shenanigans. Infect will reliably kill through Chalice later in the game, though, making the card more of a temporary solution than the actual gameplan it is against Burn.

Next up is blocking. Even without Chalice in play, throwing creatures in front of Glistener Elves is something Colorless mustn't hesitate to do. Our credo: do not take infect damage. We're creature-heavy enough to be able to block almost every turn, forcing opponents to deal us 10 in one fell swoop. And when they're casting their pump spells each turn anyway, so Elf doesn't just die in combat to our 3/3, dealing 10 in a single attack becomes challenging.

The best early blocker is of course Matter Reshaper, who then flips into more blockers, ramps us into our top end, or, on a good day, draws Dismember. The best late-game blockers are manlands, especially Blinkmoth Nexus, which can block its cousin.

Although not all lists run it, Rancor lines up okay against this strategy. The enchantment allows Infect to trade away creatures instead of pump spells, or continue using pump spells to save its creatures, but push damage through regardless. A timely removal spell can blow out Rancor plays, which conveniently become predictable after we see the card once.

An especially strong Infect player will look to resolve Rancor and then hang back from attacking, stockpiling enough pump spells and protection to go for game later (even through a Chalice). We can only draw so many Dismembers to interact with this play cleanly. Our most reliable counter is to develop a board of our own and be ready to block enough that we don't die. Should opponents wait long enough, we can turn all those creatures sideways and one-shot them ourselves.

With no Chalice, we can still take over game 1 with Seer and Smasher. Our smaller creatures and manlands excel on the blocking front. With a Chalice, game 1 often ends very quickly.

That being said, between Viridian Corrupter and Dissenter's Deliverance, Infect actually has a number of mainboard ways to remove Chalice of the Void. Granted, that number is small (about two copies per deck), and a turn-one Chalice will slow the deck to a crawl regardless. But it's not utterly cold to the artifact, especially if the deck manages to plant an infecter or two first.

Sideboarding

-3 Matter Reshaper
-4 Reality Smasher
-2 Smuggler's Copter
-1 Wastes (on the draw)

+4 Ratchet Bomb
+1 Sorcerous Spyglass
+2 Spatial Contortion
+2 Gut Shot
+1 Gemstone Caverns (on the draw)

This plan swaps our top end for the full removal package, essentially turning us into a Delver deck. Spyglass addresses Inkmoth Nexus, while Bomb covers bases ranging from multiple threats to Shapers' Sanctuary to Invisible Stalker. Copter runs into the same issues here as it does against Burn. Gut Shot is our best card, and we're sort of sad to see Matter Reshaper go (after all, it does block), but need the space.

Post-Board

They don't always run it, but Infect's scariest card is Wild Defiance. Defiance turns off most of our removal spells and allows Infect to deal 10 in one attack much more easily, and while the deck is more strapped for cards. Fortunately, our board plan shifts Colorless dramatically.

Gone are Reality Smasher, and Matter Reshaper to block and ramp us into it. Scourge, despite phasing out at the mere sight of a Mutagenic Growth, sticks around for the reason that we can aggressively Powder into removal-heavy hands and still have proactive plays to make. Since we're aspiring to a medium-length game, we'll have enough mana to recast Scourge while holding up blocks and casting removal.

Infect usually has more answers to Chalice after siding, but cannot keep up with our removal. Since all their threats pretty much die on sight, we're in no real rush to kill Infect, so our 3/3s get the job done. Shapers' Sanctuary helps them somewhat on this front, but does nothing in the face of Chalice or Bomb, making it unreliable.

Takeaways

Infect is one of our better matchups, but we do have to watch out for Blossoming Defense. I think this is Infect's best pump spell against Colorless, especially after siding, because of how good it is at blowing out removal wars. An interesting quirk of Spatial Contortion is that it increases the target's power, so casting the instant on an opponent's turn can seal our own fate. To avoid this and other embarrassing scenarios, it's best to remove creatures on our turn with spells and on Infect's turn with creatures by casting removal in our main phase and blocking when possible.

Fast, But Not That Fast

There you have it: two grizzled aggro-combo veterans all ready to be pulverized by spaghetti monsters. Does your experience against Burn or Infect on Colorless differ from mine? Do you have anything to add? Which decks would you like to see next in this series? Let me know below.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #14

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Guilds of Ravnica jump-started the new metagame this past weekend as we saw a lot of cool stuff going on at the SCG Columbus Open. Both before and during this event, I did a lot of buying—probably more than any other time in my Magic career. So this article will have a heavy focus on my recent buys.

Moreover, I’m diving into these purchases to stay true to the premise of this article series:

  • Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  • Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Recent Buys

Maximize Velocity - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Maximize Velocity

Purchased Price
$0.25 & $0.35

This might seem like a Standard-only card, but it has quite a few things going for it. It’s a one-mana spell with a little bit of additional value via jump-start. Red decks can often flood out with lands or cards that might end up a bit too situational; thus, this card gives the deck some flexibility since you can discard those cards. And this card could also work pretty nicely with Runaway Steam-Kin, which had a pretty good showing at the SCG Columbus Open.

I don’t know yet if Runaway Steam-Kin will make bigger waves in Modern outside of the Turn One Boom or 8-Whack decks. But Maximize Velocity could also see play alongside Steam-Kin there too. Or it could potentially see play in some other type of deck altogether. The price was right so I bought 16 copies.

Viashino Pyromancer - Core 2019 (Foil)

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Purchased Price
$1.49

This is also a Standard-only card right now, so I’d be cautious with this one too. However, this is a Wizard. So even though it might be a long-shot, it could start popping up in the UR Wizards list in Modern. It also sees play in Pauper, so you can’t go too wrong at that price.

Goblin Chainwhirler - Guilds of Ravnica (Prerelease Foil)

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Purchased Price
$8.99

This card just hasn’t gone away in Standard. And it’s starting to rear its Goblin head in Modern and even Legacy. This card will just keep getting better as Wizards keeps printing powerful and useful Goblins like Goblin Cratermaker.

Here’s a twist by Morbid28 on the Skred Dragons deck mentioned in article #3.

Modern Red by Morbid28

Creatures

2 Bloodrage Brawler
4 Flamewake Phoenix
2 Glorybringer
1 Hazoret the Fervent
4 Hollow One
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Squee, Goblin Nabob
1 Stormbreath Dragon
4 Street Wraith

Non-Creature Spells

1 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Faithless Looting
3 Blood Moon
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
3 Sarkhan, Fireblood

Lands

3 Gemstone Caverns
17 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Anger of the Gods
1 Boil
2 Damping Sphere
2 Goblin Chainwhirler
1 Lightning Axe
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Relic of Progenitus
2 Shattering Spree
1 Skullcrack

Modern Goblins by Albertus Law

Creatures

4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Fanatical Firebrand
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
1 Mogg Fanatic
4 Reckless Bushwhacker

Non-Creature Spells

1 Smuggler's Copter
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Devastating Summons
3 Goblin Grenade
2 The Flame of Keld

Lands

15 Mountain
4 Ramunap Ruins

Sideboard

2 Aethersphere Harvester
2 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
2 Goblin Chainwhirler
3 Searing Blood
1 Shattering Spree
2 Smash to Smithereens
1 Smuggler's Copter

Legacy Goblins by Guilherme Figueira

Creatures

3 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Goblin Chainwhirler
1 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Matron
2 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Goblin Trashmaster
3 Goblin Warchief
3 Mogg War Marshal
2 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Skirk Prospector
1 Stingscourger

Non-Creature Spells

2 Tarfire
4 Aether Vial

Lands

3 Gemstone Caverns
17 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Cavern of Souls
1 Karakas
11 Mountain
3 Rishadan Port
4 Wasteland

Since there’s just a smattering of Goblin Chainwhirler in Modern and Legacy, I think it’s better to pick up foil copies over non-foil ones, especially because they’re not that much more expensive.

Although these decks are more fringe-playable than anything right now, it’s still important to keep an eye on them. People may start to innovate by slotting Guilds of Ravnica cards like Runaway Steam-Kin into a Goblins deck like Albertus Law’s, to transform it into an updated 8-Whack. Take a look at Corbin Hosler’s list from TCGplayer for example.

Modern 8-Whack by Corbin Hosler

Creatures

4 Burning-Tree Emissary
3 Fanatical Firebrand
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
3 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

2 Devastating Summons
3 Goblin Grenade
4 Lightning Bolt
2 The Flame of Keld

Lands

15 Mountain
4 Ramunap Ruins

Sideboard

2 Alpine Moon
3 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
2 Risk Factor
4 Searing Blood
2 Shattering Spree

Shock - FNM Promos

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Purchased Price
EX: $6.39
VG: $5.59

Here’s yet another Standard card—sorry about that. But as I’ve said multiple times in previous articles, a good number of playable promos are pretty low-risk. Especially ones like this with only one foil printing of the original artwork in the original card border.

But the real reason this is low-risk is because of how many times it’s been printed in a Core set. It sure doesn’t look like Wizards is afraid to keep printing this card.

Also, this sees play in Premodern. But I wouldn’t count on any spikes from that format. It’s just a cool printing of the card that can be played in a cool format that revolves around a lot of Magic nostalgia.

If you want to go even further down the "cool" route, you might want to pick up the last four copies of the rare 7th Edition foils from Card Kingdom. I would’ve gotten these instead if I paid a little more attention to all the different foil printings.

Choke - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations

There was an error retrieving a chart for Choke

Purchased Price
$49.99

I mentioned this as a Hold in article #12 with a target price under $40. But the reason I got a couple of these at $50 was because I used my store credit from the cards I sold to Star City Games from the order I featured in article #13.

Mutavault - Grand Prix Promos

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Purchased Price
$11.99

This was another Hold I mentioned in article #12, so I put my money where my mouth was. I also followed my own advice by selling my non-foil Magic 2014 playset to get a set of these.

Thought Erasure - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought Erasure

Purchased Price
$4

I placed this on the Watch List in article #9. When I found a playset on eBay for $1 more than my original target price, I didn’t hesitate and just got them. As I mentioned in the article, this could see play alongside Force of Will, which Lejay has done with OmniTell.

And it will probably be just a matter of time before we see this start to pop up in Modern. It plays well with Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Search for Azcanta, owing to its two-mana casting cost and the surveil mechanic.

Legacy OmniTell by Lejay

Creatures

2 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
3 Baleful Strix

Non-Creature Spells

1 Intuition
3 Force of Will
4 Cunning Wish
4 Brainstorm
1 Thought Erasure
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Show and Tell
4 Omniscience

Lands

2 Swamp
2 Underground Sea
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Scalding Tarn
4 Polluted Delta
6 Island

Sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
1 Spell Pierce
1 Skeletal Scrying
1 Release the Ants
1 Noxious Revival
1 Murderous Cut
1 Mindblade Render
1 Firemind's Foresight
1 Eladamri's Call
1 Echoing Decay
1 Cryptic Command
1 Force of Will
1 Baleful Strix

Risk Factor - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risk Factor

Purchased Price
$10

$10 is a bit steep for this, but I might play it in Standard. And as you probably know by now, this article series is all about helping you get the best value when you buy and sell cards you need for tournaments.

We’ve seen Char and Browbeat before. But what makes this different? Two things. It’s an instant compared to Browbeat. But more importantly, the jump-start mechanic makes this card much more playable than either card, even though it can’t target creatures like Char. The card helps with variance in flooding out on land or turning bad topdecks into something a bit more useful.

For the most part, this is a Standard card. But it could also make its way into some Modern decks in the near future as discarding cards with flashback and/or combined with delve cards make Risk Factor a bit more appealing.

Chromium, the Mutable - Core Set 2019 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromium, the Mutable

Purchased Price
$11

This is a seven-mana 7/7 with four very powerful abilities, making it a highly viable finisher for blue decks. Not only did we see this in Jonathan Rosum’s Top 8 Esper Control deck at the SCG Columbus Open, but we also saw Jeremy Dezani run two of these in the sideboard of his Modern UW Control deck that he took to a 16th place finish at Grand Prix Prague.

Standard Esper Control by Jonathan Rosum

Creatures

1 Chromium, the Mutable

Non-Creature Spells

1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Essence Scatter
3 Vraska's Contempt
3 Cast Down
3 Moment of Craving
3 Syncopate
4 Chemister's Insight
4 Sinister Sabotage
3 Ritual of Soot
2 Search for Azcanta
4 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Lands

1 Plains
2 Field of Ruin
4 Isolated Chapel
4 Watery Grave
4 Swamp
4 Drowned Catacomb
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Island

Sideboard

3 Duress
1 Profane Procession
2 Vona, Butcher of Magan
1 Negate
1 Moment of Craving
2 Invoke the Divine
2 Fungal Infection
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 The Eldest Reborn

Modern UW Control by Jeremy Dezani

Creatures

2 Vendilion Clique
2 Snapcaster Mage

Non-Creature Spells

2 Logic Knot
2 Negate
3 Opt
3 Cryptic Command
4 Path to Exile
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Ancestral Vision
1 Oust
2 Serum Visions
4 Terminus
1 Detention Sphere
2 Search for Azcanta
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Lands

1 Swamp
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Field of Ruin
6 Island

Sideboard

2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Stony Silence
3 Rest in Peace
1 Porphyry Nodes
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Dispel
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Damping Sphere
2 Chromium, the Mutable
1 Negate

If foils ever drop below $10, I doubt they’ll stay there for very long. And supply has already passed its peak point, so I think now is the time to pick these up if you need them.

Kird Ape - FNM Promos

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Purchased Price
$4.05

Pelt Collector’s spike has already happened, and so has Vexing Devil’s. But I think Kird Ape has some growth potential again—particular the FNM printing, because it’s the only foil version of the original artwork.

If you haven’t seen the updated Modern Zoo deck, take a look at Bringerofrain75’s list.

Modern Zoo by Bringerofrain75

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Experiment One
4 Goblin Guide
4 Kird Ape
4 Pelt Collector
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Vexing Devil

Non-Creature Spells

4 Atarka's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Devastating Summons

Lands

1 Temple Garden
1 Copperline Gorge
1 Forest
1 Mountain
2 Stomping Ground
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Windswept Heath
4 Arid Mesa
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Stony Silence
1 Rest in Peace
1 Remorseful Cleric
2 Path to Exile
1 Kataki, War's Wage
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Forked Bolt
3 Destructive Revelry
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Alpine Moon

Another card to keep on your radar when thinking about similar lists to this one is Narnam Renegade. It works well with Burning-Tree Emissary, Vexing Devil, and the fetchlands. It also just rotated out of Standard, so now is a good time to pick up $1-2 foils if you can find them.

Hissing Quagmire - Oath of the Gatewatch (Foil)

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Purchased Price
$4.99

Assassin's Trophy strikes again? Yes. Take a look at Jeff Hoogland’s 13th place finish at the SCG Columbus Open.

Modern Golgari Midrange by Jeff Hoogland

Creatures

2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Tireless Tracker

Non-Creature Spells

1 Abrupt Decay
4 Fatal Push
4 Assassin's Trophy
2 Collective Brutality
3 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Liliana of the Veil

Lands

2 Overgrown Tomb
2 Treetop Village
2 Forest
3 Field of Ruin
3 Hissing Quagmire
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Verdant Catacombs
5 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Languish
2 Duress
1 Collective Brutality
2 Nissa, Vital Force
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Dismember
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Damping Sphere

This has essentially hit its all-time low, and now is the time to buy as it begins its slow but steady climb.

Arclight Phoenix - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

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Purchased Price
$7.99

I might want to play this card in Standard, and it looked like a Standard-only card when I decided to buy it. But then I came across this Modern list by Archangelic76's on Magic Online.

Modern Mono-Red by Archangelic76

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

4 Faithless Looting
2 Insult // Injury
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Pyretic Ritual
3 Risk Factor

Lands

19 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Risk Factor
2 Abrade
3 Anger of the Gods
3 Blood Moon
3 Shrine of Burning Rage
3 Surgical Extraction

I'm not sure how viable this list is yet for the longer term; we'll just have to monitor it going forward. But I'd also like to point out that Runaway Steam-Kin also pops up in this list. So we're definitely already starting to see people get pretty creative with that card outside of Standard.

Folds

Gemstone Caverns - Time Spiral (Non-Foil & Foil)

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Target Sell Prices
Non-Foil: $20
Foil: $80

As I was doing research on Goblin Chainwhirler and saw it in Guilherme Figueira’s Goblins list above, I stumbled upon this card’s chart. It’s not looking too good for the only printing of this card. If you have these and aren’t using them, I’d dump them now. You can get back in when Wizards reprints them in some Masters or supplemental set in the future.

History of Benalia - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)

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Target Sell Prices
Non-Foil: $20
Foil: $30

Eric Shoopman just won the SCG Columbus Open with this. Sell into the hype now! A friend of mine who plays more casually than competitively told me he wish he bought this before the spike. And I told him to just wait till it rotates out of Standard late next year, and pick up a foil if he still wants it then. This is probably the worst time to buy if you don’t need the card.

Standard Selesnya Tokens by Eric Shoopman

Creatures

2 District Guide
4 Venerated Loxodon
4 Emmara, Soul of the Accord
2 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
2 Trostani Discordant

Non-Creature Spells

4 Conclave Tribunal
4 History of Benalia
4 March of the Multitudes
4 Legion's Landing
4 Flower
4 Saproling Migration

Lands

4 Forest
9 Plains
1 Arch of Orazca
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden

Sideboard

1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Shield Mare
1 Tendershoot Dryad
2 Seal Away
2 Settle the Wreckage
1 The Immortal Sun
3 Lyra Dawnbringer
2 Vivien Reid
1 Cleansing Nova

Office Hours

I’ll be co-hosting Quiet Speculation’s Office Hours again. This will be the second time. You can catch the audio of the inaugural session with Sigmund Ausfresser and me here in case you missed it. Christopher Martin will be joining me for the second session. It’s tentatively set for Thursday, October 25 at 8pm Central, so mark your calendars and join us in the Discord channel.

Public Spreadsheet

There were a lot of Recent Buys discussed this week. And I didn’t even list some of them. But you can find all of them in the Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em - Public MTG Finance Spreadsheet. Don’t forget to bookmark it! I update it on the fly, so you can see what’s going on as the market moves and before articles about certain cards are published.

Summary

Recent Buys

  • Maximize Velocity - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)
  • Viashino Pyromancer - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Goblin Chainwhirler - Dominaria (Foil)
  • Shock - FNM Promos
  • Choke - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations
  • Mutavault - Grand Prix Promos
  • Thought Erasure - FNM Promos
  • Risk Factor - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)
  • Chromium, the Mutable - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Kird Ape - FNM Promos
  • Hissing Quagmire - Oath of the Gatewatch (Foil)
  • Arclight Phoenix - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

Folds

  • Gemstone Caverns - Time Spiral (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • History of Benalia - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Daily Stock Watch – Necrotic Ooze

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I'm quite sure that the most recent banned and restricted announcement was a clear indication that Modern is in a healthy state, though I'm not sure if this most recent discovery could shift the balance in the format's power. It could easily be a hype call or there must be some busted way to make the multiple combos work in the deck featuring our budding Modern superstar.

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The jump to $11.66 was astounding to say at the very least, and all but certainly because of the free content that Ben Friedman posted via StarCityGames a few days back. Just to have an idea of how the deck looks like, here's the list that Bryan Gottlieb initially came up with:

Abzan Ooze

Creatures

1 Grim Poppet
1 Walking Ballista
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Devoted Druid
2 Doom Whisperer
3 Duskwatch Recruiter
1 Fauna Shaman
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Morselhoarder
3 Necrotic Ooze
3 Noble Hierarch
1 Viscera Seer
4 Vizier of Remedies

Other Spells

4 Chord of Calling
3 Grisly Salvage
3 Eldritch Evolution

Lands

3 Forest
1 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Gavony Township
1 Godless Shrine
1 Horizon Canopy
3 Overgrown Tomb
2 Temple Garden
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Fairgrounds Warden
3 Obstinate Baloth
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Wickerbough Elder
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
3 Assassin's Trophy
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Thoughtseize

It's just like playing with Counters Company except for the fact that you could actually win the game by turn three if all the pieces of the puzzle fit. Another card from Guilds of Ravnica is the reason for this suddenly exploitable combo in the form of Doom Whisperer and its very strong ability. By burying all the cards you need in the graveyard with the help of surveil, you grant the ooze enormous power to be every creature that it wants to be without having the actual cards in play. This allows you to combo off with the classic Vizier of Remedies + Devoted Druid + Walking Ballista with the help of Morselhoarder, which prior to this writing looked every bit unplayable because of its high casting cost.

How good can Necrotic Ooze actually be? It's hard to gauge at the moment, considering you have a plethora of other graveyard-dependent decks out there (Bridgevine, Hollow One, and the resurgent Dredge) that would easily attract more hosers from top tier decks (Grafdigger's Cage, Leyline of the Void, Rest in Peace). However, the easiest way to beat this deck is in the form of a one mana artifact called Pithing Needle which suffice to say, could buy you some time from dying to an early Necrotic Ooze. You could still lose via beatdown but I'm quite sure that's a regular problem that every other Modern deck would be willing to deal with.

The Ooze Gang

There would be a couple of Modern tournaments over the weekend and we shouldn't be surprised if we see this bunch in action and trying to steal games from unsuspecting opponents. I do think though that there's a better list out there that some pros might have formulated, otherwise the price spike for the Necrotic Ooze can't be solely blamed on the free article that not even everyone have read so far. The card has always been very good on its own and it's no secret to Duel Commander players how nasty it could get if left unscathed by the turn it comes down. There will be tons of answer for it in the slower Modern format but there's no mistaking that this card is a real threat to the balance of power if a list could be perfected. I don't mind losing a few dollars on a wedge that could pay off big time if it really gets over the board as the new premiere combo piece of Modern.

At the moment, StarCityGames and Card Kingdom if out of stock of Necrotic Ooze while there are still multiple vendors via TCGPlayer that's selling it for as low as $6.40. I would be suggest that you clean up those that are still below $8 and let's see where this could get us. The card will still have casual appeal if this hype doesn't pan out that well so just look at the upside of having it break the Modern scene and reach $20 range if it's for real. It would also be worth taking a gamble on the foil copies. We could be in for a big payday or a minor setback on this one.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: Not All Price Drops Are Created Equal

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Welcome back, readers!

Let's say you drop two balls of different masses from the same height in a vacuum. Newton's Second Law of Motion states that force equals mass times acceleration. The end result is that both balls will land at the exact same time because the gravitational acceleration is independent of the mass of the object.

Fun fact, you might say, but what does this have to do with Magic: The Gathering finance? Well, unlike said ball-dropping experiment, all card price drops due to reprint are not the same.

Tracking Recent Reprints

To get an idea of this, let's look at some recent reprints. We'll look at how they affected the original card's price and where the reprint price is at now.

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You can buy an original Portal: Three Kingdoms version of Imperial Recruiter for around $138. Prior to being spoiled in Masters 25, this card was sitting well around $350, which equates to a 60% drop in value. Masters 25 versions can be purchased for around $25-$26 dollars.

Now we don't typically see this big of a drop on the original versions of cards. However, the key factor to remember with Imperial Recruiter is that Portal: Three Kingdoms was a very underprinted set (limited to only a few countries), meaning it was extremely rare. Any new supply was likely to reduce its value by a considerable amount, which is what we saw.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wurmcoil Engine

We saw Wurmcoil Engine reprinted in the Commander 2014 product. It did see a dip after that reprinting down to around $13.50, but has since recovered back to the pre-reprint price (with the lowest copies being around $18.50).

There are several differences between Recruiter and Wurmcoil, though. Wurmcoil sees play in most of the Modern Tron variants, which are still powerful and popular. Meanwhile, Recruiter is predominantly a Legacy card, and even then it doesn't see a ton of play in the format (finding a home mostly in Imperial Painter decks).

Keep in mind that Wurmcoil was actually reprinted again in one of the Commander Anthology's (though that print run was likely very low), so its rebound is all the more impressive, but not unexpected given its utility in Modern.

Comparing these two cards, we know that format playability (as well as desirability of the format as a whole) can play a major role in how much of a hit a reprint will cause to a card's value. However, there are likely other additional factors (some obvious, some not as much).

The rarity of a reprint will likely play a major role in the price drop one would expect to see. The more common the rarity, the more the price is likely to drop, which makes perfect sense for any given print-run size. This is why many speculators here on QS tend to focus the most on mythics for new sets—there are a lot fewer of them compared to any given rare, so the price ceiling is obviously higher.

There is also the question of when it was last printed. As the player base has grown steadily, it makes logical sense that print runs have grown with it (though we can't know at what rate). Thus the more time that has passed since a card was printed, the more likely it is to be "rarer" than any given newly printed rare.

Astute readers might have noticed a trend. All of these mentioned have to due with scarcity, which as always goes back to good ol' supply and demand.

A Look at Guilds of Ravnica

Knowing this bit of knowledge can help us avoid overpaying on recently reprinted staples. The most important of these are the shocklands in Guilds of Ravnica.

We have already seen prices of the Return to Ravnica block shocks drop by around 20% on average since Guilds of Ravnica was announced.  However before RTR block shocks were reprinted, the original Ravnica shocks were all between $20-$40 (before the set name Return to Ravnica was announced). After the announcement they started to drop—at RTR's release most had dropped to under $20, after a few months most dipped as far down as $15-$18.

I bring this up because I expect the Guilds of Ravnica shocks to continue to drop as more of the set gets opened. We saw the average price of the shocks from Return to Ravnica block drop by 46% from their initial release prices.

Now, thanks to RTR block, the shock price ceiling was dropped considerably. So I don't expect as dramatic of a fall as the last go-around for Guilds of Ravnica. However, the fact that the initial prices for Guilds shocks are mostly between $6-$8 dollars means that we could easily see them drop to sub $5 if the set is opened in large numbers.

Shockland Initial Price Lowest Price Price Change Percentage Price Drop
Steam Vents $16.71 $6.88 $9.83 58.83%
Hallowed Fountain $16.89 $6.49 $10.40 61.57%
Watery Grave $14.22 $8.21 $6.01 42.26%
Breeding Pool $14.44 $8.00 $6.44 44.60%
Overgrown Tomb $16.93 $7.56 $9.37 55.35%
Godless Shrine $21.35 $8.06 $13.29 62.25%
Temple Garden $14.97 $8.38 $6.59 44.02%
Blood Crypt $13.93 $7.01 $6.92 49.68%
Stomping Ground $14.80 $12.91 $1.89 12.77%
Sacred Foundry $14.53 $10.25 $4.28 29.46%
Average $7.50 46.08%

Knowing all this we should consider picking up the following shocks when they bottom out;

It's also important to pay attention to which set the reprint occurs in. We saw Gatecrash shocks maintain about a 20% premium over their Return to Ravnica brethren despite typically seeing less play in Modern. While RTR had lots of Standard and/or eternal staples in it, Gatecrash was far less impressive (and Dragon's Maze was abysmal). Less Gatecrash was opened, and conversely fewer Gatecrash shocks were added to the supply.

So we want to keep a careful eye on Ravnica Allegiance. If it proves to be less popular than Guilds of Ravnica, we will want to look more carefully at those shocks.

Total Distribution of Shocklands

Below is a chart of the current shockland distribution. In a three-block set I assigned a point value of 1, 2, or 3, with 3 being the most opened set, 2 being the second most opened, and 1 being the least opened. Not surprisingly they go in order of first set in the block to last set in the block (thanks in large part to draft formats).

Shockland RAV GPT DIS RTR GTC DGM Expedition GRN Total
Steam Vents 2 3 1 1 2 9
Hallowed Fountain 1 3 1 1 6
Watery Grave 3 2 1 1 2 9
Breeding Pool 1 2 1 1 5
Overgrown Tomb 3 3 1 1 2 10
Godless Shrine 2 2 1 1 6
Temple Garden 3 3 1 1 2 10
Blood Crypt 1 3 1 1 6
Stomping Ground 2 2 1 1 6
Sacred Foundry 3 2 1 1 2 9

This chart doesn't include Ravnica Allegiance. While we expect them to reprint the remaining shocks, as that information is still unknown at this time we will leave them off the list. Assuming the remaining shocks are reprinted in Ravnica Allegiance, and the set is equally popular to Guilds, each of those shocks would earn 2 more points.

Note that even in that case, four shocks will still have fewer overall points than the others (with Breeding Pool having the fewest of all).

This helps identify the shocks that will have the smallest supply, and thus—even not knowing the metagame—the most potential upside when it comes to speculation. Keep in mind that if Ravnica Allegiance is more popular than Guilds of Ravnica, we would likely need to add either 3 points to those shocks or subtract 1 point from all the Guilds of Ravnica shocks.

For some good comparison evidence of this system, we can look at the two highest-point shocks: Overgrown Tomb and Temple Garden.

These have consistently been the cheapest of the shocks (along with Blood Crypt), despite the fact that they see heavy play in Modern. According to the most-played Modern cards on MTG Goldfish, both Temple Garden (#31) and Overgrown Tomb (#38) outrank Breeding Pool (#45), Watery Grave (#49), and Godless Shrine, which are all more expensive.

This is especially telling because both shocks contain green, the most played color in Commander, which further increases demand.

  1. Breeding Pool
  2. Hallowed Fountain
  3. Blood Crypt
  4. Stomping Ground

Non-Shocks

The only non-shock reprint of note is Chromatic Lantern.

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I do like speculating on this card a good bit. While it was never a bulk rare by any means, it did sit in the $2.50 range for almost a full year while RTR was Standard-legal despite being an obvious Commander staple. We see the current Guilds of Ravnica version already sitting around this price (and it was just released) so I'll expect to see the price drop a bit more. I doubt it will drop below $1.50, but if it did I would pick up 20+ copies myself.

Conclusion

While it might seem like you'd want to start picking up shocklands from Guilds of Ravnica since they appear so cheap, there is a large possibility that they continue to trend downward and reach a sub $5 pricetag (possibly even $4 for Temple Garden).

Thanks to their ubiquity in Modern and Commander, there is definitely a price floor we can expect these not to break. I'd likely guess it to be around $3. However, the inverse is true as well—with yet another mass printing, the price ceiling has dropped considerably for shocklands. I'd put the maximum around $10 for any of them, unless the Magic playerbase grows dramatically (which would likely take a while).

We typically see prices of the newest set at their lowest 2-3 months after release, so I'd consider holding off any speculative Guilds of Ravnica reprint purchases until November/December.

The Best Value In: Legends

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New expansions come and go, but the cards are forever...

Set after set, expansions thrill us during spoiler season only to fade from memory years later when they rotate from Standard. Only a handful of top-tier playables remain to remind us of long past. By the time this article goes live, Guilds of Ravnica will be on the shelves, and the lustrous honeymoon will be over.

Some sets never seem to fade. In particular, the older Vintage sets tend to loom large in the imaginations of Magic players all around the world. Today, I'd like to focus on one such set, Legends, which is now nearly 25 years old!

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Legends is the third Magic expansion, and it is truly a relic of an age come and gone. Back in 1994 when the set was released, there was no "spoiler season" or widespread internet hype train to formally introduce players and collectors to the new cards. Sets simply showed up on store shelves – and as was the case for the first Magic releases - they sold out immediately, as there was not supply to satisfy the rabid demand for new cards.

Today's article isn't a history lesson, rather, it is an exploration of one of Magic's most fascinating sets with the intent to great speculation targets in the modern her-and-now. In particular, Legends is a fantastic set to look for value for the following reasons:

  1. The set is gigantic. At 310 cards, there are a lot of great, obscure options to discuss. Arabian Nights and Antiquities are so small that it's very easy to target the few "good" cards. Legends is huge and full of weird cards, which makes it less obvious and thus easier to find 'sleepers.'
  2. The set is interesting and iconic. I would argue no set other than Alpha expanded the world of Magic more than Legends. The artwork is gorgeous and flavorful. It's a beautiful set to collect.
  3. The set is Reserve Listed. Obviously, the Reserved List is a big factor in Magic finance since it means certain cards cannot be reprinted – which makes them prime investment targets.

The first rule of my list is that I'm not going to include cards over $100.00. I'm a believer that if you are dropping $100.00 on a card, that it's an investment one way or another. Anything over $100 is likely Reserved List already, which makes it a reasonable investment. When it comes to expensive cards, they tend to find their level fairly quickly and then steadily tick up in price as time goes by.

I'm looking for cards that I beleive haven't found their level yet and thus could make significant gains in the near future. These are going to tend to be rares that are less than $100 NM.

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Cleanse is a fairly inexpensive for a Reserved List Legends rare. I actually like this pick so much that I went on eBay and bought a copy for myself as I'm writing this article. I noticed that I don't own any copies of this card and would like to add one to my Old School Battle Box.

I think exactly the thing I just described is what makes Cleanse a fantastic pick. It is playable in fringe scenarios of fringe formats. I know this card sees some play in the sideboard of Old School Mono White decks against Suicide Black. Those are two places that this Reserved List card can see play, which leads me to believe the $30 price tag is too low.

[card graph = "Disharmony" set = "Legends"]

Disharmony is another random "unplayable" Legends rares that is in fact much more playable than most people believe.

It's certainly a card that is playable in Old School as a sideboard card. It's a straight up two-for-one in many scenarios: steal an attacker, block with it, and trade. It is also a card that has found a place in my Danger Room and Old School Battle Box.

Note that the key thing I'm looking for in these examples is "price point." There are plenty of examples of other rares that are equally (and often less) playable going for a significantly higher price (often over $100). In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before these other fringe playable cards catch up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Firestorm Phoenix

I was really surprised to see this card still sitting at $25.00. As a point of reference, this card had that price tag back in 1996!

Clearly, there are better creatures available in Magic these days, perhaps even at the time when it was printed. Nonetheless, the card is really cool-looking and iconic. It's the first Phoenix and has a flavorful ability.

Another point I'd like to make that helps bring my "Phoenix Pick" into focus: I believe that collecting completely NM sets of older expansions is something that will become more popular as time goes on. With that in mind, I think that NM copies of basically any cheap Legends rare ($15-$30) is likely a great pickup with regard to making a profit down the line.

Firestorm Phoenix is a nice example of the type of card that could see a major price breakthrough if "set making" becomes a more mainstream thing in the future. Even if it doesn't, the card is interesting enough that I believe it will easily trend beyond it's low price point.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hell's Caretaker

Proof that cards don't need to be on the Reserved List to be great speculation targets from older sets. Hell's Caretaker has amazing artwork and is fringe playable in casual formats like Old School Battle Box, Old School, and even Commander. It certainly has some kitchen table flare, and did I mention the artwork and flavor are beyond compare?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lifeblood

Another amazing sleeper card that has "base value." It is really difficult to find English Legends rares that sell for less that $15.00. In fact, most of the ones that sell that low meet two qualifications: they have been reprinted and are basically unplayable.

Lifeblood is at the bottom basement price and it is neither of those things. It's never been reprinted and it is actually quite powerful, albeit as a sideboard-type card.

I actually ended up buying a copy of this card ($12.00 BIN EX+) on eBay to add to my Old School Battle Box!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reverberation

Another basement pick. It's a Reserved List rare that hasn't been reprinted and sees fringe Old School Magic play as a sideboard card against Burn / Fireball decks. I love the idea of picking up cheap but nice condition versions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for

Sol'kaaar is one of the overall "best creatures," pound for pound, in Old School Magic. He's beefy, has a ton of useful abilities, and is undercosted. He was reprinted in Chronicles, but people love the flare of an original copy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Storm World

Another card I was surprised to see at it's current price point of $40.00. It's an Enchant World which is interesting (since the rules around Enchant Worlds make them destroy others when played). The card itself is quite good. I'd play it in Cube or in a highlander format in a build-around-me deck. The card is really fun and unique, which makes me think its a good pick up at the current price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tuknir Deathlock

Not the most exciting card with regard to stats, but it is on the Reserved List and kind of fun and flavorful. I have this creature in my Old School Battle Box and he's a lot of fun. It's mostly a price issue where I don't understand how a Reserved List card that is more playable, more interesting, and more flavorful can be worth less than other rares that fall short on every comparable metric.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Willow Satyr

Willow Satyr is actually a great card that sees play in Commander. I've noticed, and this could just be something in my circle of friends, that a lot of people are interested in playing casual formats with older cards lately. Old School Commander, Old School Battle Box, Old School Constructed, etc.

With these formats seeing more play and with more people becoming interested, these fringe cards could really become staples down the line.


We've touched on the individual cards that I like the most right now. Some of these cards I literally purchased while writing the article! The key is that I believe there are certain criteria that make cards from this set more or less desirable as speculation targets. In particular, I think it makes sense to compare cards to find inconsistencies in terms of price. If a card is on the Reserved List and a straight up more playable card, why is it less? I believe the answer to that question is: "It won't be for too long."

Legends is a great set to look for sleeper cards if you are willing to go a little bit deep and use your imagination. Remember, these cards are nearly 25 years old, so they are difficult to acquire outside of the internet, but don't be surprised when they are much more difficult to acquire a year or two down the road.

 

MTGO News: Treasure Update

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Welcome back, folks. I hope y'all are enjoying drafting Guilds of Ravnica and trying out some of the new cards in Standard. People seem excited about this set, and both the Sealed and Draft leagues are at healthy participation levels. At one point during the pre-release there were nearly 12,000 people in the Sealed leagues, and already the competitive Draft league has 675 people in it. Limited participation levels on Magic Online were at their highest levels during the first month of Dominaria's release, and I'll be curious to see how Guilds of Ravnica participation does by comparison.

Lost in all the Guilds of Ravnica hype last week was an update to the treasure chests! Medwin has taken it upon herself to reverse the overall trend of declining treasure chest values, and since taking over the chests have not fallen below 2.20 tix. Treasure chests shot up to 2.60 tix after the update went live, and I'm here today to break down the important changes.

Courtesy of GoatBots

 

I. Core 19 Cards Added

As has become traditional, many Core 19 mythics and rares were added to the chests at the release of Guilds of Ravnica, rares at a 6 frequency and mythics at a 12. To provide a frame of reference, generally only a frequency of 18+ will pump enough copies into the market to create excessively burdensome downward pressure on a Standard staple, 12+ on a Modern or Pauper staple, 6+ on a Legacy staple, and 6+ on a Modern or Pauper playable. I tend not to invest in cards that exceed the stated thresholds so that I'm not fighting against the current.

A few things pop out.  First is that Bone Dragon and Chromium, the Mutable are the big winners in the mythic category. Cards with less demand than those two are having an additional infusion of supply, and this makes me happier about my Chromium speculation recommendation a month ago.  Second is that Crucible of Worlds and Scapeshift are going to continue to have supply pumped into the market, so I would steer clear of these cards and would sell any excess copies I have (I'm surprised these two were added to the chests despite the Core 19 reprinting. The opposite approach was employed with Masters 25 cards).

These three cards are the big winners in the rare category, as they are the most expensive rares that avoided inclusions in the treasure chests. Banefire and Cleansing Nova, in particular, are shaping up to have been among the best speculations of Core 19, as both have seen play in the opening week of Guilds of Ravnica Standard.

As fun as it may be to ruminate on the topic, I've grown to learn to avoid assuming that cards not included in the chests will not see Standard play and those included in the chests will see Standard play. These decisions seem to be made by looking at which cards are expensive and which cards are, like Graveyard Marshal or Tezzeret, Artifice Master, "objectively powerful" without reference to what Play Design or the Future Future League divines will see play in future Standard seasons.

II. Standard Changes

Apart from the addition of Core 19, Standard cards are not having their frequencies changed all that much. The main thing we see is the addition of some popular Rivals of Ixalan cards and the elimination of some Dominaria cards that don't see play.

I don't think there is too much to worry about here. I think that a 6 frequency for The Immortal Sun and Arch of Orazca will really limit their potential to increase in price going forward; I think that a 12 frequency for Teferi and Rekindling Phoenix will not prevent those cards from going up, although I think it will gradually lower the ceiling on both cards. I'd look to sell the Phoenix between 30 and 35 tix, and Teferi between 40 and 45 tix.

Standard now only has three cards with a frequency of 20 or higher, and those three are Carnage Tyrant, Vraska, Relic Seeker, and Vraska's Contempt.

I believe that these three cards should have had their curated frequencies reduced to 12 to put them in line with other Standard rares and mythics, and I hope that Medwin will make that change at the next Treasure Update. I certainly forgot that these three had such high frequencies, and I'm now looking to sell my copies at lower prices as a result. I'll likely sell my extra copies of Carnage Tyrant at 15 tix, Vraska's Contempt at 8 or 9 tix, and Vraska herself at 8 or 9 tix.

III. Eternal Changes

There are many changes to Eternal cards, too many to go over. Below are those that I think are the most significant. Sometimes, as in the case of Walking Ballista, the significance lies in what stays the same.

I usually find some speculation opportunities in the crop of major treasure updates, and today's is no exception. Spire of Industry, Bomat Courier, the fastlands, and Thorn of the Black Rose are all cards I'll be looking at more closely over the coming days. Dark Depths, with a new frequency of 0, might be my favorite of them all.

These three are the big losers. Custodi Squire, in particular, is going to get hammered. I'm very confused by the decision to increase the treasure frequency of the Moxen, as even a 3 frequency is high for Legacy and Vintage cards. I've long been vocal about Magic Online needing a Legacy League with the payout structure of Pauper and Friendly Standard/Modern Leagues to spur demand for Legacy cards. Walking Ballista now looks like a much worse spec than it did mere weeks ago as it will face significant downward pressure ad perpetuum. Hold onto your playset and sell the rest.

IV. Signing Off

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions, leave a comment down below or hit me up in the QS Discord and I'll be sure to get back to you. Next week I believe we're going to take a look at a topic I've been asked about a lot: What will happen to the price of the Guilds of Ravnica and Ravnica Alliance Shocklands? Stay tuned!

Daily Stock Watch – Risk Factor

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new segment of the Daily Stock Watch! I have to be honest that I was pretty much disappointed when Guilds of Ravnica was spoiled but I'm happy now that I'm somehow being proven wrong by my initial impressions. I wrote about Vexing Devil yesterday which was the recipient of a financial boost courtesy of Pelt Collector and today, I will be writing about a card that's actually making a name for itself both in Standard and Modern (and maybe Duel Commander if its viable) as it has slowly rose to $10 range from its initial release of $2.93.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risk Factor

Char was a pretty decent burn spell back in the day, and so was Browbeat. I didn't actually think that you could get the best of both worlds (sans the ability to hit the creature which you get with Char at the cost of two life) and have the ability to do it again in a manner that allows you to abuse another mechanic. Just imagine playing Risk Factor when you have three mana, then playing it via jump start and discarding a Fiery Temper for an 11-point life swing, or three damage and access to six new cards. That's a high value threat that could net you a decent haul for one card slot, six mana, and a card that you could afford to discard (or would love to be discarded to be abused e.g. Bloodghast or Flamewake Phoenix).

There have been multiple brews already both in Standard and Modern and I'd like to give you a glimpse of how Risk Factor is doing in those respective lists so far.

Standard Red Deck Wins

Creatures

4 Ghitu Lavarunner
4 Viashino Pyromancer
4 Runaway Steam-Kin
4 Goblin Chainwhirler
4 Fanatical Firebrand

Other Spells

4 The Flame of Keld
4 Lightning Strike
4 Wizard's Lightning
4 Shock
4 Risk Factor

Lands

20 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Vance's Blasting Cannons
3 Rekindling Phoenix
4 Lava Coil
4 Fight with Fire
1 Experimental Frenzy
1 Mountain

Modern Red Deck Wins

Creatures

2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Other Spells

4 Atarka's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Devastating Summons

Lands

1 Scalding Tarn
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
4 Mountain
4 Inspiring Vantage

Sideboard

2 Skullcrack
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Searing Blaze
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

I guess it's pretty safe to say that a card is really good if it's already getting a lot of exposure in tried and tested decks across various formats. Risk Factor might not have the versatility of other burn spells to rid the board of possible threats, but it has the ability to almost guarantee four damage when you cast it unless your opponent would like to gamble and hope you get three lands off the three cards you'll draw. The jump start mechanic puts the card over the top though I'm still not convinced that it will be as successful as it seems now when you look at it on paper. The $10 price tag is somehow justified for me, as I could easily see this card hitting the $15-$20 barrier in a short-term window. I'd say that if you'd like to invest on the card now, get it for $10 or less and move them when it hits the price range I just mentioned. I'd also favor the foil copies more in this scenario.

At the moment, you could get a lot of copies of Risk Factor from online stores such as StarCityGames, TCGPlayer, Card Kingdom, and ChannelFireball for anywhere between $8.49 up to $11.99 for normal copies. It's safe to wedge your bet on the ones below $10 in my opinion, as there will be lots of love for it among the red-loving crowd. Just be wary that an awful lot of GRN will be opened in the coming months until the box EV eventually balances itself out and box opening won't be as appealing as it is right now. I would go for foil copies at below $15 as well if that's possible. I'm quite sure we'd be seeing a lot of Red Deck Wins in Standard and Modern for the coming weeks that's jammed with copies of this card.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Unleash the Hatebears: GW Post-Guilds

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The metagame constantly cycles and decks rise and fall. Last year, Grixis Death's Shadow was the deck-to-beat in Modern; today, it's Humans. Sometimes, this fluctuation occurs because of players reacting to new decks or trends; sometimes, it's because of new printings. With the release of Guilds of Ravnica, Modern seems poised for a major shift thanks to one card, Assassin's Trophy. But I think there is also a minor shift in the wings thanks to some other newcomers.

Selesnya Rising

Assassin's Trophy has seen the widest Modern discussion of the new Guilds cards, and rightly so. However, GW also received new and potentially game changing cards. While I have serious doubts that Trostani Discordant or any of the convoke creatures will see play, there are several cards that have made me wonder if they're enough to not just see play, but bring an old archetype back to life. It's certainly possible given the current metagame.

Knight of Autumn

The most-discussed addition is Knight of Autumn, and with good reason: three modes on a three-mana creature is an insane rate. It's even more insane because the modes are all Modern-playable abilities. Kitchen Finks and Reclamation Sage see extensive play, and the fail state is still an impressive beater. Knight replaces those cards in decks that can afford her, which frees up card slots.

Despite this, I actually expect Knight to see limited play. Its problem are the creature type and the cost. Dryads and Knights don't have any real tribal synergies at all, while Sage does; Elves doesn't have a reason to switch. Costing white and green means Autumn is far less splashable than Finks; Kitchen Finks can be played in mono-white or green, while Autumn must go in a two-color deck.

This disqualifies Autumn from a lot of decks. Humans won't switch to Autumn because she will be uncastable frequently. While Humans is a five-color deck, it relies on Cavern of Souls and Unclaimed Territory, which won't produce mana for Autumn in most circumstances. Casting Autumn takes two of Noble Hierarch, Ancient Ziggurat, Seachrome Coast, Plains, and/or uncycled Horizion Canopy which is a big ask for Humans. Assuming that Humans only wants the Naturalize ability out of the sideboard, there's no reason to adopt Autumn over Sage.

Pelt Collector

Humans probably wouldn't be a deck without Champion of the Parish. One-drops that become serious threats during a game are rare and powerful (see: Deathrite Shaman), and Pelt Collector looks to join that club. Collector is simultaneously more and less limited than Champion, since the Elf Warrior can't grow infinitely but also isn't limited to a single tribe. Gaining trample once it hits 4/4 is a very nice touch. Of course, that's also likely as large as Collector will be growing on its own, since green creature decks rarely contain anything larger than a 4/4. Still, a one drop that scales as the curve rises has a lot of potential.

I haven't seen much discussion of Pelt Collector for Modern yet. What there have been are combo decks using Vexing Devil and Death's Shadow as part of all-in aggro strategies. My experience with such decks says it's a cute idea, but not really competitive; they can win out of nowhere, but even a small hiccup shatters the axel, and the whole thing crashes to a halt. A more fair and resilient deck is still gong to grow Collector just by playing out its curve. It might even be a better home since there will be more must-kill threats.

Emmara, Soul of the Accord

Modern asks a lot of two-mana 2/2s. Its removal and speed mean that they need to be disruptive like Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, immediately impact the board like Thalia's Lieutenant, or provide a long-term advantage like Dark Confidant. Given that Emmara, Soul of the Accord is only notable because she makes a token, she doesn't immediately appear playable. But I think she may have legs.

Against UW Control, Emmara is an army unto herself, and a priority removal target. UW Control doesn't play that many hard answers, instead relying on drawing enough Terminuses to withstand creature decks until Cryptic Command and planeswalkers can seal the game. A single threat that can go wide unassisted throws a significant wrench in UW's gameplan. Jeskai doesn't have this problem thanks to all its burn, but with straight UW apparently being the control deck of choice, I'm interested.

Back in Return to Ravnica Standard, I remember that Precinct Captain served a similar role early in the format. Captain never made it in Modern because of Lightning Bolt, but right now, that's not true. First strike is a very good ability, but I think that Emmara is actually better because Captain only makes tokens if he deals combat damage to players. Emmara just needs to tap, be that by attacking, convoking, or getting hit with Cryptic Command. I don't see Emmara beating out Voice of Resurgence for maindeck play, but she's definitely sideboard material.

Tax or Hate

The wealth of new GW cards made me wonder if it's time to reexamine GW Hatebears. Longtime readers know that I've always preferred mono-white Death & Taxes, but for a time years ago Little Kid Abzan and GW Hatebears were better choices because of their superior matchup against Jund. Thanks to the rise of Grixis Death's Shadow and GP Las Vegas 2017, mono-white finally emerged as the preferred deck last year, and GW virtually disappeared. However, I'm starting to think the winds have shifted enough for GW to be worthwhile.

The difference between Hatebears and Taxes isn't just about color. Taxes decks rely on Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and Leonin Arbiter coupled with Ghost Quarter and Field of Ruin to attack an opponent's mana, grind down their engines, and win via many small, disruptive creatures. These decks use Aether Vial coupled with Flickerwisp and Restoration Angel to play around removal and gain card and mana advantage. However, Humans uses Thalia more effectively than Death & Taxes because it kills faster. Its other disruptive creatures are also relevant more often than Arbiter, meaning it's gotten hard to justify Taxes over Humans.

Many Hatebears decks did run Thalia, but not as a primary strategy. Instead, Hatebears is about directly disrupting the opponent while outclassing opposing creatures and removal. Where Taxes induces inefficiencies, Hatebears shuts strategies down. Instead of Arbiter, it runs Aven Mindcensor; Gaddock Teeg over Thalia; Noble Hierarch rather than Aether Vial. Hatebears doesn't beat removal with tricks, it plays creatures that are less vulnerable, like Loxodon Smiter. In a Jund-heavy world, this stat-based approach worked well. Jund isn't the powerhouse it used to be, but I think a similar metagame opportunity is developing.

Metagame Opportunities

The metagame is becoming more polarized, with Humans and UWx Control emerging as the big players. Meanwhile, Affinity is changing forms from the classic explosive artifact deck to the less vulnerable Hardened Scales version. This shift presents an opportunity for Hatebears to rise again, as it has considerable advantages against this new metagame notwithstanding the new Guilds additions. I know that many are turning towards GW Taxes instead of Hatebears, and that's fair, but Knight of Autumn doesn't make up for the fundamental Taxes problem of small, fragile creatures. I've been testing a more classic take on the deck.

GW Hatebears, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch
2 Birds of Paradise
4 Pelt Collector
4 Voice of Resurgence
4 Scavenging Ooze
1 Selfless Spirit
1 Gaddock Teeg
4 Knight of Autumn
4 Loxodon Smiter
1 Aven Mindcensor
3 Wilt-Leaf Liege
1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Chord of Calling

Lands

4 Razorverge Thicket
4 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
3 Horizion Canopy
2 Gavony Township
3 Forest
1 Plains

This deck accelerates into mid-game creatures while growing its threats. While Knight almost never triggers Collector without Wilt-Leaf Liege, Voice tokens frequently do. The Chords are there because Chording for Teeg in response to a miracle trigger or other play can be backbreaking for opponents, and potentially great against strategies besides UW. Further testing will tell for sure. In this section, we'll see how my proposed Hatebears list compares to Death & Taxes against Modern's top decks.

Vs. Humans

I was playing mono-White Death & Taxes when Humans first reared its head, and the match is very close. Humans usually dominates the early game, but if the game goes long, Blade Splicer and Flickerwisp take over. Wins were never easy, and I often stabilized at a precarious life total. The problem was that Taxes' one- and two-drop creatures are worse than Humans's, and without Vial, it proved easy to fall behind. D&T is also very weak to decks that can go wide and tall, which is a Humans specialty. Since then, Humans has adopted Izzet Staticaster, which wrecks the low-toughness creatures in Taxes. One available solution is to sideboard into a white control deck, but Humans is built to pick apart slower decks, so the matchup is just tough.

Hatebears' creatures are naturally tougher than D&T's, so it stands up in combat far better. Having Gavony Township and Wilt-Leaf also makes Thalia's Lieutenant less crushing. Being able to lock down the ground and eventually win with massive, trampling Pelt Collectors has been effective in testing. The main problem I still have is Humans filling the skies, because Hatebears lacks fliers. I'm uncertain at this point if this problem is worth trying to solve with mainboard cards.

Vs. UWx Control

The Taxes matchup against control decks is very hard. Jeskai has a plethora of relevant removal for every creature, while UW has Terminus to avoid paying taxes. Games come down to careful resource management, and if Taxes falls behind on cards, it is very hard to get back into the game. My post-board solution was to utilize planeswalkers, but that was still risky against countermagic. Once Terminus replaced Supreme Verdict as the go-to sweeper, I decided I just didn't need the stress in my life.

Hatebears has a number of advantages game 1 against both decks. UW only definitely has Terminus and Path to Exile as hard removal. Occasionally Detention Sphere joins the party, and Autumn answers it. Path is Path, and Snapcaster Mage plus Path is very nasty, but Scavenging Ooze makes Snapcaster worse. Also, Terminus tucks creatures back into the library, meaning they can be found with Chord or just shuffled back into circulation. Smiter's uncounterability is the final nail in the coffin for UW to have a tougher time against Hatebears even before we sideboard in more Teeg's, Thrun, the Last Troll, and Emmara.

Jeskai has a somewhat easier time since it has more removal, but Smiter and Voice have always been good because they shrug off Lightning Bolt. What tends to happen is Jeskai has to 2-for-1 itself to get Hatebears off the board and just runs out of steam. Chording for Shalai in response to removal is also a beating against Jeskai.

Hardened Scales

Normal Affinity was an easy match for Death and Taxes. Between the land destruction, Blade Splicer tokens, and fliers, D&T had all the bases covered game 1, and things got fantastic after sideboarding. Hardened Scales is a different animal. Walking Ballista and Hangerback Walker are nightmares for D&T's tiny creatures. Absent Phyrexian Revoker, a single large Ballista is often game over, making Taxes more reliant on Stony Silence than before.

Simply having bigger creatures is a huge plus for Hatebears. Instead of being a board wipe, Ballista is often just a removal spell. Knight and Pridemage also make the matchup manageable by removing the Scales. Shalai and Gavony Township mean Hatebears can match Affinity on size. It can still be terrifying when Scales starts to snowball, but Hatebears has more options to successfully fight back than Taxes.

Hollow One

Here's the factor that has me most excited about Hatebears. I've made no secret that I dislike Hollow One because Burning Inquiry can be so frustrating to play against. Hatebears turns Inquiry against its controller with Smiters and Lieges. There's also the statistically implausible chance that we discard all three Lieges, there's no opposing Hollow One, and we crash in for 24 damage on turn one!

Outside of that pleasant dream, once again, Hatebears's size matches Hollow One and Gurmag Angler and stonewalls Bloodghast. Scavenging Ooze is exceptional for stopping the recursion engine and stabilizing. The additional artifact removal from Knight is also highly relevant.

Give In to Your Hatred

It's not always obvious when a shift brings an older deck back to playability. Between combo revolving around Teeg targets, aggro becoming about size, and control narrowing its answer suite, I think that Hatebears is due for a resurgence. In any case, there's at least enough power in the deck for me to continue my testing.

Daily Stock Watch – Vexing Devil

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! In case you missed last week's special edition, you could check out a week long worth of posts that I dedicated to reviews of cards that won us some profit, or helped save us some bucks by not speculating on them. Today, we will be back to our regular segment and I will be talking about a card that has gained some leverage off a new card from Guilds of Ravnica, but is still the same old, dangerous creature that it ever is.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vexing Devil

Zoo is back on the map and all of this is because of Pelt Collector. It has superb interaction with all the cards in the deck designed to cater to it when it hits play on turn one as the likes of Kird Ape, Wild Nacatl, and our featured card Vexing Devil all become enablers for this card that could make your opponents nudge in fear as soon at it gets the counters it needs to push with trample. You might be wondering why we're talking about Vexing Devil instead of Pelt Collector, but I'll give you more insight on that later. For now, check out this list that people are brewing featuring our very aggressive friends.

New Zoo

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Experiment One
4 Goblin Guide
4 Kird Ape
4 Pelt Collector
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Vexing Devil

Other Spells

4 Atarka's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Devastating Summons

Lands

1 Temple Garden
1 Copperline Gorge
1 Forest
1 Mountain
2 Stomping Ground
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Windswept Heath
4 Arid Mesa
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Stony Silence
1 Rest in Peace
1 Remorseful Cleric
2 Path to Exile
1 Kataki, War's Wage
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Forked Bolt
3 Destructive Revelry
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Alpine Moon

When news about this deck broke out, Vexing Devil was sitting at sub-$9 range and was still being used everywhere because it's a very strong yet situational red card. Modern Burn decks have already ditched it in favor of Monastery Swiftspear, Goblin Guide, Eidolon of the Great Revels, and Grim Lavamancer as of late. However, this new deck brew makes Vexing Devil a pretty strong enabler for Pelt Collector on turn two with utter disregard if your opponent chooses it to stay on the field, or just take four damage to see it go (which leaves you with a 3/3 Pelt Collector for a potential seven damage on turn two). Multiple copies of the card on the first three turns along with the right creature mix is just straight up lethal if left unanswered. But is this enough reason to believe the hype that made this creature reach its all-time high of $15.99?

Beatdown Gang

I'm not sure if a Legacy rendition of this deck is possible, but I would be thrilled if it does as that would boost the stock of these cards (probably the foil ones) in the long run. There will always be love for aggressive decks even in casual formats, and it should take a while before the meta adjusts to a new shift in power if it does occur. I think this price tag will stick around for a while unless Vexing Devil becomes reprinted in any new sets. If you were able to acquire copies before the spike and you intend to use it, it should be safe to keep it. Otherwise, I don't really recommend that you get copies now for speculation purposes because UW is still a tier one deck in Modern, and one Terminus could flip the game around. I'm not saying that it automatically loses to that deck (hello Timely Reinforcements because there are tons of other decks in the format but if I am to invest in one, I would be looking at something that would be able to beat the consensus best decks in the format. With all these in mind, I wouldn't be buying Vexing Devil at this price but I won't mind holding on to them either. If they do reach $20-$25 though, I would be glad to let them go.

At the moment, both StarCityGames and Card Kingdom are out of stock of Vexing Devil while only a few vendors are left with near mint copies via TCGPlayer for $15.50 and above. There's a low ceiling for foil copies of this card so I suggest that you stay away from it, and just try trading in some cards for it if you want to speculate. Always proceed with caution when dealing with red creatures that's not named Grim Lavamancer.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Three Different Approaches to MTG Finance

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A couple weeks ago fellow Quiet Speculation writer Edward Eng and I hosted the inaugural Office Hours podcast. This was a live question & answer session where Insiders could post written questions to the Insider Discord while Ed and I replied with audio. Check out the recorded session above if you’re curious to listen.

There were two highlights from this session in my mind. First, someone asked about Runaway Steam-Kin. Most of you know by now I don’t spend a second of my time analyzing Standard. However, this one intrigued me and I decided to grab eight copies on a whim. Not too long after, I managed to sell them for a modest gain—getting “paid” to talk about Magic is one of my favorite pastimes!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Runaway Steam-Kin

The second highlight came in the form of a more open-ended question. An Insider asked for strategies to participate in MTG finance with a limited budget. Ed and I tried our best to tackle this massive question, but I don’t think I did the subject enough justice. There are probably many people with this same question, and I thought I’d elaborate a bit more on my philosophy surrounding this concept.

It really comes down to three possible priorities…

The Three Priorities

In some offices at work, people hang up posters that are meant to inspire creative thought. One such poster—a bit more cynical if you ask me—states that if we want to create the best product we must choose two of the following: time, cost, quality.

Rather than get into economic theory, I bring this up because I believe a similar paradigm can be used to describe Magic finance. In my view, you have to choose between time, money (bankroll), and enjoyment. If you’re dealing with any sort of limitation (most of us are), you cannot have all three of those. You must sacrifice one of them to prioritize the other two.

Depending on what you choose to deprioritize, your involvement in this hobby can vary significantly.

Sacrificing Money: The Budget Speculator

The Insider question brought up during Office Hours directly relates to this persona. Someone who either prefers to spend less money on Magic or someone who has a limited budget basically falls into this category by default.

The budget speculator must utilize time to close the gap created by a limited bankroll. For example, they can seek out underpriced cards on TCGplayer by browsing stock by set. They can observe which Reserved List cards are selling rapidly, acquiring a few copies before the “buyout” manifests itself completely. They can also browse buylists frequently, keeping an eye out for arbitrage opportunities, such as when Card Kingdom temporarily had a $1400 buy price on Library of Alexandria.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

You have the flexibility to focus on whatever category of cards you want. If you wish to play Commander for example, you could focus on Commander trends when speculating. But you will have to read up on articles, monitor EDH REC numbers religiously, and listen to podcasts in order to make the timely purchases necessary to maintain a budget. You also may need to wait patiently for an upcoming reprint in order to acquire those cards you most desperately need for your decks.

If Modern is more your format of choice, there are plenty of ways to speculate in these spaces. Legacy and Vintage are probably not the best formats to engage in, however, due to the higher price of entry. Stick to less expensive formats, be willing to sink time into this hobby, and you should have no issues with budget finance.

Sacrificing Time: The Long-Term Investor

If I had to categorize myself, it would be in this group. I am fortunate to have a reasonable bankroll for MTG speculation and I want to focus on the formats that give me the most enjoyment. But my time is quite limited due to family obligations. Therefore, I have chosen to deprioritize time.

What does this look like? Well, I need to avoid rapidly changing formats like Standard because I don’t have enough time to keep up with the metagame. I choose not to watch coverage over the weekend because I spend that time running errands and watching my son’s soccer games. But I can certainly engage with the slower-moving formats I enjoy most: Vintage and Old School.

These are the perfect formats (Legacy would also be fine) because the cards are most immune to evolving market dynamics. The price of entry is high, but the cards I purchase are immune to reprint or metagame shifts. In fact, when dealing in Old School you could make the argument that reprints are favorable to card prices. Just look at what happened to Beta Llanowar Elves when it was re-introduced into Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Llanowar Elves

For someone with limited time on their hands, buying into collectible cards with plenty of upside is the best of both worlds. And if Old School isn’t your thing, you could follow the same approach in whatever format you enjoy most.

You could engage in Pauper by purchasing rare, original foil printings of your favorite cards. I’m sure Japanese foil Seventh Edition Llanowar Elves are just as expensive and just as collectible as their Beta counterparts. You could also purchase original foil printings of your favorite Commander cards. Better yet, stick to foil Reserved List cards for Commander, such as Academy Rector.

As long as you avoid Standard, this category enjoys the best formats with the best cards. We just don’t get to play all too often.

Sacrificing Enjoyment: The Backpack Vendor

Someone who deprioritizes enjoyment of Magic as a game in favor of investing time and money into the hobby is essentially a wannabe vendor. They have a sufficient bankroll and the time to endure the grind. They could be the ones trading all weekend at events. Or they could be the people who pick collections to make some extra cash. Or they could be the type that researches every format, speculates accordingly, and runs a sizable store on TCGplayer or eBay.

What they sacrifice in this endeavor is paying actual games of Magic. Maintaining decks is terrible because it forces them to own cards that may not offer good returns on their investment. They also can’t maintain a deck because they would rather sell their cards to make money. Imagine trying to build a Standard deck with History of Benalia, and then suddenly having the opportunity to cash out of the card for a sizable profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for History of Benalia

If you’re in this category, you can’t keep that card in good conscience because you know its price is inflated and destined to drop back down. This mindset basically prevents you from ever playing the best decks in a given format. The best decks often have the most expensive cards, which is valuable liquidity you can’t afford to sacrifice.

To the backpack vendor, Magic finance is a job and not a game.

Know Where You Stand

This article describes three very black and white categories. In reality, everything is a continuum. There’s no hard and fast rule that says you must completely deprioritize either bankroll, time, or enjoyment. That would be ludicrous and make for a less interesting hobby. But just understand that every time you give in to temptation and indulge in the one aspect you’ve deprioritized, you are making a sacrifice in one of the others.

If you are the backpack vendor you can still enjoy playing Magic. But in doing so, understand you may be sacrificing a little value and time. If you are the long-term investor with little time to enjoy the hobby, you can still get to a GP once in a while. But in doing so, you may be sacrificing time with family. And if you are on a limited budget you can still splurge once in a while. But to do so, you may need to sacrifice some money from another part of your budget—maybe eat a couple ramen meals and forgo that trip to the movies once or twice.

It’s all about maintaining the right balance for you. Being cognizant of where you stand will help you think more strategically about Magic finance. You’ll know when you’re making a sacrifice, and you’ll know where you need to make priority calls. This awareness will help you achieve the most important goal of all in any hobby: happiness.

Wrapping It Up

Between enjoyment of the game, size of bankroll, and free time, you need to select two to prioritize. It can be any combination of two you’d like, but you need to be willing to accept the limitations that come with whichever combination. This will dictate whether you are the long-term investor, the backpack vendor, or the budget speculator.

You may ask if you can choose to prioritize only one of the three vectors, neglecting the other two. I would argue doing so would lead to a highly inefficient approach to MTG finance.

You can’t sacrifice bankroll and time—this essentially means you’re a casual player and should not get involved with MTG finance. Sacrifice budget and enjoyment, and you’re basically a consumer of content with insufficient resources to make any moves. And sacrificing time and enjoyment means you have resources but no interest in applying them to Magic—you’d be better off parking that money in a brokerage account’s index fund.

In other words, you can only forego one vector and still participate fruitfully in Magic finance. It can be any of the three vectors you want, but understand what category you fall in as a result. In doing so, you will need to make certain sacrifices. That’s not to say you can’t indulge once in a while, but if you find yourself indulging too much then you may need to reconsider which category you belong in. If you bounce around too much, you will find yourself unhappy with the hobby. Find the right balance, and you’ll enjoy Magic finance for years to come.

Sigbits

  • After jacking up their buy price to an impressive $1400, Card Kingdom scaled back their buylist on Library of Alexandria. They must have gotten enough copies back in stock. Now they are aggressively going after Bazaar of Baghdad with a buy price of $1140. By the time this article goes live, they may get new stock in and drop that number back down again. But in the meantime, this is certainly an attractive exit point.
  • I was surprised to see Beta Black Knight randomly appear on Card Kingdom’s hot list. They had really backed off on their Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited buy prices as they restock these sets. They’ve gradually gotten cards in stock at new, higher prices, and this has led to a decline in buy prices across the board. For whatever reason, they must be having a tough time keeping Beta Black Knight in stock, hence the aggressive buy price.
  • Card Kingdom has been moving their buy price on Power around a bit lately, depending on what they’ve been able to acquire. For example, they haven’t been able to keep more than one or two Black Lotuses in stock at any given time, so they recently upped their buylist from $6500 to $7800. But they must be somewhat content with their stock of Unlimited Ancestral Recall because they just dropped their buy price down to $2000.

Daily Stock Watch – Part 2 of Review of Cards that We Saved Ourselves From

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Hello, everyone and welcome to this week's last edition of the Daily Stock Watch! We will return to the regular segment next week after doing special editions for the entire week. For our last special post, I will be talking about the other half of the cards that saw some spikes by the time of writing, but I was wary about it holding its value so I asked you stay away from it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Daybreak Coronet

This card went bananas when Bogles started winning and almost reached $20 when I wrote about it. I am very skeptic when it comes to cards like this that are particularly good in a certain "surprise deck" that isn't bound to last because they are quite easy to check come tournament time. I warned you that its success won't last and as it turns out, this card is down to $13 as of writing. Unless you're using the Voltron deck, you just saved yourself some cash by not buying into this.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Archive Trap

Somewhere out there is a casual player who played a Modern tournament and almost milled his way to victory with a Mesmeric Orb and Archive Trap powered deck. It was crazy good in a fun way and it almost willed those cards to some pretty decent financial spikes that didn't last long. This card was out of stock at $12 from various online stores when I wrote about it, and common sense along with some MTG Finance knowledge will tell you that they will restock at a higher price when they decide to do so. Fast track to today and this card is still sitting at $10, so don't feel bad if you didn't panic buy during the hype.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mizzix's Mastery

Cards from special sets such as Commander can get expensive from time to time (check out Fiery Confluence) so we could easily be fooled by a certain price spike when it happens. Mizzix's Mastery was a sub $3 card for the longest time and the sudden surge to $12 territory didn't seem fairly justified for me. I told you to get copies for something like $7 because it won't go that high and it isn't really a good spec target. Today, the card is just at $10.20 so you would have saved yourself from going all in on a possibly lousy spec. It's still a good card, but there are better

There was an error retrieving a chart for Geth, Lord of the Vault

One of my initial freaky Friday posts was about this Mythic rare from SOM that reached its all-time high of $11 when I wrote about it. Online stores already adjusted to $12.99 and showed us that they are out of stock which somehow started a buying craze for finance junkies out there who are into Commander specs. I didn't really have a high value or liking for this card, so I advised you to stay away from it as it is reprint-prone and clunky as a Commander card at the same time. That paid dividends if you listened, as this card is now at $9.50 and didn't really materialize into something that's broken in an ever-evolving format like Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Settle the Wreckage

This multi-creature removal isn't exactly something that didn't pan out amidst is price spike but we'll include it in this list because we got them cheap if we bought in at the time of writing. I was a fan at $5 and rightfully so, this card remains above $6 and is still a viable removable as it sees Modern play and some fringe Commander and Legacy action. You would have saved yourself a couple of bucks if you got them higher before the price stabilized at the $6-$7 range.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon of the Trials

Remember when this made some appearance in Modern decks and made a lot of noise prior to the Pro Tour back in May? It looked so promising and absurd back then that it reached $25 and made all non-believers look silly for not keeping copies of the card. I was one of those silly non-believers that didn't even bulge at the face of the price spike, knowing that this card will come crashing back to earth financially once rotation time has arrived despite of its Modern relevance. This card is now $7 on average and moving at $5 in the market, so you must be really happy if you sold out during that spike window and didn't bother getting copies at a cheaper price. It just plummeted all the way down after that stretch and doesn't look like it will recover any time soon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heart of Kiran

It is essential that we move around rotating pieces at the right time but it was kinda hard to swallow how lowly Heart of Kiran got by the time I was writing about it. It was seeing some competitive play via BR Midrange and it was going back to $3 (which is still a far cry from its high of $25 at the peak of its Standard prowess) when I asked you to let go of all your copies. This card is barely a dollar now so you definitely saved yourself from more losses by moving them around back then. It's going to be Smuggler's Copter over this whatever happens post-rotation.

And that’s it for this week's special edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next week, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Fat Guy, Little Coat: Revisiting TarmoDrazi

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I'm always brewing new Modern decks, especially when spoiler season rolls around. After the novelty wears off, I inevitably find myself pulled back to my favorite card combinations. Goyfs, Bolts, cantrips; Temples, Mimics, Seers. I believe the decks that best house these respective combinations are Counter-Cat and Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, both of which I've tuned to finely match my playstyle preferences. But lately, I've again become enamored with an older creation of mine, and one that essentially mashes the two strategies together: TarmoDrazi.

Today, we'll take a look at my updates to the TarmoDrazi deck and assess the strategy's prospects in the current metagame.

Deck Concept and History

TarmoDrazi was born from a joke gone wrong: the weekend following Eye of Ugin's banning, I brought a Simic Eldrazi deck containing the newly-legal Ancestral Vision and a playset of Goyfs to Fright Night Magic. But Goyf's applications in the shell actually impressed me. A week later, I'd built the prototype.

That first version received backlash for my continued inclusion of Serum Powder, a card I had yet to put on the map as a worthwhile tool in Modern Eldrazi decks. I closely analyzed Powder's roles in the deck and finished by cutting it from my subsequent build. Version 1 also revealed the power of Traverse the Ulvenwald in a focused Tarmogoyf shell, and especially alongside the Eldrazi—when searching for Temple, Traverse functioned as a green Sol Ring, heavily incentivizing the deck to achieve delirium rapidly.

Version 2 came about after the spoiling of Emrakul, the Promised End. I went into Temur colors for Thought Scour, which helped fill the graveyard for Emrakul, and included Oath of Nissa as a mini-Ancient Stirrings that added to delirium and found Tarmogoyf. Noble Hierarch was introduced to help with delirium, mana fixing, and speed. Blue also gave the deck Serum Visions, at the time a powerful cantrip, and Stubborn Denial, which insulated the shell against combo decks. Stubborn was nice; Serum was a bit slow. Same deal with Emrakul, which was regularly a worse Traverse find than Tarmogoyf.

The project received new life when I remembered Architects of Will and went on another brewing spree. Version 3 employed Architects to make delirium more reliable. Emrakul and Oath were cut from this build, but spending mana on a blind cantrip wasn't what the shell wanted to be doing. I abandoned TarmoDrazi a month later, when Wizards revealed Eternal Scourge, and got to work on Colorless Eldrazi Stompy.

Current Build

Abandoned until now, that is. After two years on Colorless, I've re-sleeved my Ancient Stirrings to update TarmoDrazi. As always, we'll start with the list.

TarmoDrazi, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Tireless Tracker

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

4 Tarfire
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Dismember

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
2 Faithless Looting

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
2 Misty Rainforest
4 Eldrazi Temple
3 Karplusan Forest
1 Grove of the Burnwillows
2 Stomping Ground
2 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Stubborn Denial
2 Kozilek's Return
2 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Dire Fleet Daredevil
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 World Breaker
1 Breeding Pool
1 Cavern of Souls

Philosophy

The contemporary TarmoDrazi deck improves on its predecessors in a few ways. For one, it's sleeker. Full sets of Hierarch, Bauble, and Tarfire greatly enhance the deck's speed, a crucial factor in this midrange-light format. Value-leaning cards like Matter Reshaper and Architects of Will have little merit here. Trimming Architects also has the benefit of relegating our blue splash to the sideboard.

Faithless Looting further adds to our velocity factor, chewing through ill-fitting pieces in hand while growing Tarmogoyf and enabling Traverse the Ulvenwald in linear matchups. Those matchups have always peeved TarmoDrazi, as when opponents weren't stripping our cards with Thoughtseize, amassing delirium could prove cumbersome. Looting even improves the midrange matchups by dumping lands for business in the mid-game. Of course, it doesn't hurt that our "business" is midrange's Public Enemy No. 1, Reality Smasher.

Another crucial aspect of the deck is its resilience to graveyard hate. Rest in Peace seems great against TarmoDrazi on paper, but in practice, all it achieves is neutering Tarmogoyf and turning Traverse the Ulvenwald into Lay of the Land. That's just eight cards it cripples. We're still a deck with Thought-Knot Seer and Cavern of Souls, and remain fully capable of punishing opponents for deploying the enchantment on-curve.

Positioning

Modern already has a GR Eldrazi deck—the one with Obligators and Bloodbraid Elves. While that deck excels against large creatures, TarmoDrazi has a better time against small creatures thanks to its abundance of spot removal. Frequently having a 6/7 Goyf also pays dividends against those strategies, which are forced into chump-blocking. TarmoDrazi also gets the nod against combo decks, which similarly struggle against large Goyfs (not to mention Stubborn Denial).

I think GR probably outperforms us against midrange, what with all its Goyf-stealing and Bloodbraid value. But we certainly don't have a bad midrange matchup ourselves, what with all our... Eldrazi Temples. I feel like a more proactive, less rampy version of that deck that isn't so dependent on opponents having creatures is well-positioned for this metagame of Hardened Scales, Tron, UW, and Burn.

TarmoDrazi's sideboard also helps with matchups historically tricky for Eldrazi decks. Kozilek's Return fills in admirably for the heavy removal packages I've been forced to include in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, but it certainly underwhelms against Humans.

I also began without a blue splash, but added it back in for Stubborn Denial. This counterspell teams up with the accelerated beatdown plan of Hierarch, Goyf, and Seer to make most of our combo matchups—including spell-based aggro-combo decks, like Burn—a breeze. Lastly, Traverse gives us access to Magus of the Moon, which takes care of Valakut and UrzaTron decks alike.

Card Choices

Here, we'll dissect the individual components that make TarmoDrazi tick.

Creatures

Noble Hierarch remains critical to the strategy, baiting out removal and feeding the creature type to delirium. With Fatal Push in the picture, this role is more relevant than ever.

I've found Looting and Bauble to buff our consistency enough that an early Goyf or Seer is par for the course. As such, additional early threats like Matter Reshaper, Eldrazi Obligator, or Bloodbraid Elf feel superfluous. Reality Smasher sits comfortably on top of the mana curve.

As for Traverse bullets, the only two I've found worthwhile are Scavenging Ooze and Tireless Tracker. Both are go-tall creatures that can outgrow anything and break board stalls, but they do so in different ways.

Ooze gets bigger faster and controls boards gummed up with Goyfs on either side. It also incidentally hates on the graveyard and gains life, hosing certain strategies. Sticking Ooze has been important in game 1s when it comes to turning off Snapcaster Mage, who's already stretched thin against this deck thanks to all the Path to Exile targets.

Tireless Tracker stays small for longer, but attacks opponents from a different angle entirely: with card advantage. Especially in a deck with Faithless Looting, drawing once (or twice) for each land drop can out-resource many Modern decks.

I like to exchange resources with interactive opponents as much as possible before deploying Scooze or Tracker. That way, the creatures come down and just take over the game, à la Huntmaster of the Fells. Both creatures leave something to be desired against linear combo decks, although Scooze has applications against some of them, but their presence provides a mighty boon to our interactive matchups. Not coincidentally, these are the matchups in which we're likeliest to have delirium active and find ourselves able to tutor up haymakers.

Removal

After experimenting with varying numbers, I think 4 Tarfire is definitely correct. No other card in the deck is worth two card types. It turns out taking a minus in matchups with few Tarfire targets is worth having delirium active from the game's outset.

Lightning Bolt is technically a flex card here, but I think it performs well in the slot. 3 is much more than 2 when it comes to burning opponents out, and Modern has never been so stat-centric. There are some creatures, most notably Mantis Rider, that Tarfire just won't kill.

For everything else, there's Dismember. This all-purpose kill spell is a shoe-in at 2. It nabs early Goyfs, lets us beat later ones, and clears the path of Gurmags and Baneslayers for Thought-Knot and friends.

Cantrips

While I've discussed Traverse and Stirrings to death in the context of this shell, Bauble and Looting are relative newcomers (although I have experimented with Bauble here before). Let's start with the artifact cantrip. At 0 mana, Bauble is just miles more efficient than Architects of Will. And we have enough library manipulation to make great use of the scry. Our land configuration gives us the option of scrying while making a turn one play a good chunk of the time. We can also Bauble before casting Traverse or Stirrings if we're really looking for something specific, and hold off on the green cantrip until we draw the top card. Bauble even gives us super-Thoughtseize by looking at an opponent's card before resolving Seer. I'll admit that Bauble occasionally gets Looted away in the mid-game, but there's no card I'd rather have in an opener.

Since I've played Faithless Looting religiously in GRx Moon decks for years, I'm surprised in hindsight that I never tried it in TarmoDrazi. After all, Looting does plenty that we want—it cycles through extra lands, grows Tarmogoyf, and turbo-activates delirium. In game 2, it even helps find sideboard bullets we can't Traverse for, like Stubborn Denial. Including Looting also makes hit-or-miss cards like Dismember less of a liability.

Mana

The TarmoDrazi manabase is a tightrope walk of package balance, and I'm not sure I've found quite the right combination of lands yet. There are four types of lands vying for space among our precious 20 slots.

  • Colorless producers: Karplusan Forest seems like the better land, since a reach-inclusive aggro deck doesn't really want to gain opponents life. But it seems including Grove of the Burnwillows has some merit, as with both lands in play, pilots can choose whether to give life or take damage. Similarly, seeing both lands off a Stirrings lets us select the best one for the matchup.
  • Fetchlands: I've been bouncing between 5 and 6 fetchlands lately. We badly want a fetchland in the first couple turns of the game, but they become our worst lands by the mid-game. Exceptions do arise; Mishra's Bauble and Tireless Tracker both extract extra value from fetchlands. But I've had them be dead occasionally, and the damage adds up.
  • Fetchable lands: Having targets for fetchlands wasn't a problem when I ran Breeding Pool in the main, but since switching to Wastes, 6 fetchlands feels like it might be too many. Among these lands, I think at least three should be basics, including 1 Mountain. It's possible the 2nd Forest can be cut for another shock.
  • Utility lands: Right now, my only mainboard utility land is Wastes. The fourth basic stands to help out against Assassin's Trophy (I have yet to test that), and it's a colorless source we can Traverse for in lieu of delirium. Having a Wastes in the 75 blocks Blood Moon and Field of Ruin from ever cutting us off colorless.

It pays in this deck to deploy lands very conservatively, at times holding up to four additional lands in hand. A topdecked Faithless Looting can turn those lands into threats. Because of Bauble and Tracker, fetchlands are the most valuable type to hold. Pilots should play out lands so that they have enough to Loot and make a desired play, or flashback Loot and make a desired play. Properly pacing land drops requires a solid understanding of what's in the deck and the paths available should one card or another be drawn.

Sideboard

The sideboard, too, is a work-in-progress. Lately, I'm wondering if Huntmaster of the Fells and Magus of the Moon can be cut. The former seems a little redundant as a bullet—if we've stabilized the board, won't Tireless Tracker or Smasher put the game away, even against small creature decks? As for the latter, are there decks besides Tron it's there for? If not, I'd rather have a third Damping Sphere.

I'm also wondering if World Breaker can't be Reclamation Sage. I figured the only time I'd need to blow up an artifact or enchantment was if I was already deep in the late-game, in which Breaker is castable, and liked his applications against attrition decks. But seven mana is still a ton. Other bullets I've tried and cut include Eldrazi Obligator (never wanted it) and Hazoret the Fervent (too redundant with Smasher). I've considered Izzet Staticaster and, just for kicks (I swear), Nullhide Ferox. (Just for kicks!) (I swear!)

The rest of the sideboard feels great. Dire Fleet Daredevil shines in Goyf mirrors, Kozilek's Return wrecks small creature decks, and Stubborn Denial runs circles around anyone casting pricey spells. Cavern of Souls is also riotous against the UW decks.

Merry Christmas, Everyone

After putting this deck back together, I promptly went 4-0 at my LGS and came home eager to share the updated TarmoDrazi with the world. If anyone else takes it for a spin, be sure to let me know how it goes!

Exploring Some Overlooked Modern Gems

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In the vast card pool of Modern, there are quite a few hidden gems that are either underplayed or could see play in other strategies. Decks like Death's Shadow and KCI existed for a long time before being discovered. This leads me to believe there are plenty of other undiscovered viable decks lurking in the depths of Modern. Whenever I come across a card that sparks my interest, I take note of it. Sometimes I'll build some exploratory lists around it. In rare cases, I'll continue digging if I think there is something truly great in the idea. Over the years, these cards have formed a disorganized list in my brain of cards that could potentially take over Modern either in established decks or entirely new strategies.

In an attempt to make the list a little more organized, I want to document a few of those cards on that list. It is important to note that the decklists in this article are rough starting points and are far from polished.

Bomat Courier

Bomat Courier is an incredibly powerful card and has certainly demonstrated that in Standard. It presents pressure in the form of inevitable card advantage that must be dealt with, all at the low cost of one mana. Despite its efficiency, the deckbuilding constraints Bomat Courier puts on a deck are fairly significant. To cash in on the card advantage machine, you need to have few, preferably zero cards in hand. The type of deck that wants this card will be emptying its hand quickly to prepare to reload. Not many decks can or are actively looking to do that, but the ones that do will be happy to have it.

One deck I would look to for Bomat Courier is Burn. All Burn is trying to do is empty its hand of burn spells to put the opponent’s life from 20 to 0. That can be difficult to do sometimes when resources are tight. If the deck draws a few too many lands, it will often be six to nine life points short. Bomat Courier not only acts as a burn spell by chipping in for 2-3 damage, but it brings along with it the burn spells under it. Bomat Courier is at its best in a slimmed down version of Burn playing Bump in the Night. My biggest issue with traditional RW Burn are the hands that die with two-mana spells rotting away in hand. The lowering of the curve will both help kill the opponent quicker and make Bomat Courier better.

The other deck I propose we add Bomat Courier to is Death’s Shadow. The deck is all about playing the most efficient spells possible, and what better than a one-mana draw-four? That characterization is a bit of an exaggeration, but the card is still a perfect fit. The deck plays removal spells to let Courier get hits in, and it plays hand disruption to quickly trade off resources. If both sides are constantly trading one-for-one, but one side has a Bomat Courier, it is clear which side will win.

Erayo, Soratami Ascendent

Erayo, Soratami Ascendent may fit more under the category of pet card rather than secretly powerful card in Modern. Part of me just really wants this card to work, but I should still try to honestly evaluate this card. When looking at the power of a card, It is important to weigh the setup cost against the payoffs. If the payoff does not overcome the amount of setup required, then the card is not worth playing. If it feels like you are having to do too much to make a card work, than you almost certainly are.

Now, the payoff for Erayo is pretty strong. Countering the first spell an opponent plays each turn will slow them down a lot, and in some cases, just lock them out. It won’t win the game on its own, but it won’t need too much help. What is the setup? Cast four spells. That is a lot of spells. That is more than half the number of cards in a starting hand. I think most people would stop at that and move on to something else. They are probably even correct in doing so, but it is possible this card is playable now with Mox Amber and Sai, Master Thopterist.

Casting four spells in one turn is no small order. Doing it consistently is even more difficult. Accomplishing it, and then still having enough resources left over to win the game, is seemingly impossible. Needless to say, Erayo, Soratami Ascendent has the biggest deckbuilding constraints of any card on this list. To cast four spells in a turn, the deck needs to be filled with tons of free spells. That almost certainly locks us in to playing artifacts. If we have Erayo in hand, we certainly want to be able to consistently flip it on turn two. That means we need mana ramp. This cross section pushes us towards Mox Opal and Mox Amber. Mishra's Bauble gives us a free spell that also replaces itself. Round out the zero-cost artifacts with Engineered Explosives for some disruption and we have a nice core. Without Mox Amber, this core would not be consistent enough to work.

The enchantment side of Erayo is pretty good, but not good enough to end the game on its own. We need threats to end the game that work well in a deck filled with zero-mana artifact spells. The two cards that work perfectly in that environment are Monastery Mentor and Sai, Master Thopterist. Again we run into more redundancy. We have up to eight copies of a card that will end the game shortly backed up by a pile of zero-mana artifacts.

Erayo Combo, by Max Magnuson

Creatures

4 Erayo, Soratami Ascendant
3 Ethersworn Canonist
4 Monastery Mentor
4 Sai, Master Thopterist
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Amber
4 Mox Opal
4 Engineered Explosives
1 Chalice of the Void

Instants

4 Repeal

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Island
4 Seachrome Coast

A couple notes about this list as a starting point. Repeal is the key. Either Mox with a Repeal is enough to flip an Erayo the same turn you play it. It also combos well with Monastery Mentor and Sai, Master Thopterist.

The one Chalice of the Void is pretty awkward. You don’t really want to cast it on zero unless there is no other way to flip Erayo, as it locks out a lot of the other spells in the deck. I could see cutting that one immediately. I like having a Rule of Law type effect in Ethersworn Canonist. It assembles the true lock with Erayo’s Essence, and is even an artifact for Mox Opal. Overall, this is a pretty good starting point—despite my bias, I’m confident it has a lot of potential.

Utopia Sprawl

Utopia Sprawl is a unique ramp spell in Modern. It is a one-mana ramp spell that is not a creature. If you want that type of effect in Modern, typically you would have to play Noble Hierarch or Birds of Paradise. Unlike those staple mana dorks, Utopia Sprawl isn't vulnerable to removal spells, which makes it more reliable. We've seen a little bit of Utopia Sprawl in Modern in decks like Ponza or Green Devotion, but I think it could easily spawn other archetypes.

Utopia Sprawl puts a lot of constraints on the land choices in a deck. The majority of the basics and dual lands need to be Forests. This forces any deck relying on Utopia Sprawl to be base green. This constraint is a big reason why we've only seen it in mostly green decks. Getting to choose the extra color the land taps for is a form of fixing, and we should be able to get a little greedier with our color choices. Thanks to shocklands, Modern manabases can support three-color decks while still having enough Forests for the land enchantment to function.

The place I'd start brewing with Utopia Sprawl is a bigger midrange deck. Midrange decks in Modern need to play a lot of one- and two-mana plays, so that they can keep up with the other decks in Modern. With Utopia Sprawl, we could play some three-, four-, or five-mana haymakers to get us back in the game. We could play three-mana wraths like Sweltering Suns or maybe a Liliana. With four mana we could play a Jace, the Mind Sculptor on turn three. For five mana, we could look at cards like Thragtusk or Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. There are a wide range of options available in all four of the possible supporting colors. Figuring out exactly what the deck wants would require a lot more testing than theorizing.

There are a few things working against Utopia Sprawl in Modern. Most green decks are interested in playing creatures. Part of green's color pie is that its power is largely focused in creatures. In decks built around creatures, there is not much incentive to play Utopia Sprawl over the one-mana creature accelerators. Most of the good noncreature midrange payoffs are in other colors. This pushes the deck away from base green. Utopia Sprawl is also lacking an effective second copy of it. Noble Hierarch has Birds of Paradise. Any deck built around having Utopia Sprawl in play will run into consistency issues. But if we ever do get copies five through eight, Utopia Sprawl will be the very next card I start brewing around.

Mausoleum Secrets

Mausoleum Secrets is a bit of a bold prediction. This card could very easily never see play in Modern. It is a two-mana tutor though, and that is very exciting. Modern does not have many tutors on the cheap. Traverse the Ulvenwald requires too much setup to reliably be used in a combo deck. Time of Need is a bit too narrow to be effective. Summoner's Pact has been the most impactful in Modern, seeing play in Amulet Titan and Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle strategies. Mausoleum Secrets might fall into one of these categories, but I can’t really be sure without playing with it.

The biggest thing that Mausoleum Secrets has going for it is the recent printing of Stitcher's Supplier. Combine it with Hedron Crab, and that is a quick self-mill engine based around creatures. I could possibly even see a couple Minister of Inquiries for redundancy. Previously, graveyard-based decks would rely on spells like Faithless Looting and Cathartic Reunion, but now the enablers can also count towards the creature count needed for Mausoleum Secrets.

The first shell I thought of for this card was Goryo's Vengeance. The main weakness of Goryo’s is that the deck has too high of a fail rate. On top of that, the Through the Breach plan is a bit too disjointed from the Goryo's Vengeance plan. One part of the deck is trying to dump Griselbrand in the graveyard and reanimate it with Goryo’s. The other half needs fast mana and a Through the Breach.

There is an awkward tension between the two packages. Faithless looting is card disadvantage, which is great for an all-in, graveyard-based combo deck, but makes it difficult to hit a bunch of land drops or rituals for a five-mana spell. Goryo's Vengeance wants the payoff to be in the graveyard, while Through the Breach wants the payoff in hand.

Not only is the strategy overall awkward, it is fragile too. One or two discard spells or any graveyard hate is often enough. All of that aside, Goryo's Vengeance on Griselbrand is a powerful combination that leads to a number of turn-two kills.

What excites me most about adding Mausoleum Secrets to the Goryo's Vengeance/Griselbrand shell is that we can cut the Through the Breach package. With Mausoleum Secrets to provide redundancy as a tutor for Goryo's Vengeance, we can go all in on that plan.

I’ve played around with a few different shells of the deck. My first build used Street Wraith and Insolent Neonate as ways to enable Mausoleum Secrets. I found that build to be just too inconsistent. Neonate is great at enabling Secrets, but rather poor at digging for pieces of a combo. My favorite version I tried is a turbo self-mill version with Stitcher's Supplier and Shriekhorn. I tried Hedron Crab, but found it a little too hard on the mana. Despite that, I think a Hedron Crab version still deserves some more exploring.

Goryo's Vengeance, by Max Magnuson

Creatures

1 Insolent Neonate
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Griselbrand
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Stitcher's Supplier

Artifacts

4 Shriekhorn

Instants

4 Goryo's Vengeance
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Mausoleum Secrets

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
2 Cathartic Reunion
2 Conflagrate

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Polluted Delta
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Mountain
1 Swamp

My main goal with this deck is to keep intact the powerful turn-two kill potential, but add consistency through self-milling and Mausoleum Secrets. I really like Stitcher's Supplier as a tutorable self-mill target. It won’t come up often, but it is nice to have. Switching over to Conflagrate instead of Borborygmos Enraged as the win condition makes only one to two activations of Griselbrand lethal. This might make the Nourishing Shoal package obsolete as you do not need to draw the deck to win.

The main weak point for any shell I've looked at is finding a copy of Griselbrand. The entire deck is based around getting him into play, and it really doesn’t do anything without him. I’m hoping that all of the self mill will be enough to find one, but there are still only four copies in the deck. It is possible there exists a green version with some number of Time of Need to help mitigate this issue.

Wrapping Up

I hope my dive into these cards gets you excited to do some brewing, or to look deeper into some cards you think are overlooked. I plan on revisiting this list from time to time to construct a potentially referenceable list. I would be interested in hearing what cards you think deserve a spot in the comments.

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