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Daily Stock Watch – Chord of Calling

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the freaky Friday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Spoilers for Guilds of Ravnica are coming soon and we're pretty much sure that the 16/16 fatty with indestructible that they spoiled would spark a lot of speculations on what the set has in store for us. Today, I'll be playing the role of Nostradamus today and would make a prediction on something that might actually get reprinted there, so please take today's post with a grain of salt.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chord of Calling

It kinda stings when I first saw Legion Loyalist getting spoiled along with other notable cards such as Deathrite Shaman, Abrupt Decay and Aurelia, the Warleader (with a very sick art!) even though they won't be Standard legal. With convoke emerging as a guaranteed mechanic in the set and knowing that Chord of Calling hasn't been reprinted since M15, I'm just scared of the fact that it could possibly be making its return in GRN which will hurt its stock financially drastically. As far as I can recall, Chord isn't even seeing play in any top tier decks in Modern as decks that relied on it and Collected Company has decided to stick to CoCo altogther as the current meta dictates. Despite of this, Chord of Calling is still a $10 card because of Commander implications and casual appeal, but I don't think such will be the case if it gets spoiled in GRN. This would easily be a $4 card (or $3, at worst) and you would be losing some money if you're still holding on to a lot of copies of this card. I'm trying to save you from that disaster, or I might be scaring you senseless with my analogy. Either way, I think I might be doing you a favor by letting you know that this could happen.

Where else is CoC seeing play? The most relevant deck you could see it on is with this Counters Company deck that almost made it to the top eight of Grand Prix Prague.

Counters Company aka GWx Vizier

Creatures

3 Birds of Paradise
4 Devoted Druid
2 Duskwatch Recruiter
1 Eternal Witness
1 Fairgrounds Warden
4 Knight of the Reliquary
4 Noble Hierarch
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
4 Tireless Tracker
4 Vizier of Remedies
1 Walking Ballista

Other Spells

4 Chord of Calling
4 Collected Company

Lands

3 Field of Ruin
6 Forest
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Plains
1 Tectonic Edge
2 Temple Garden
2 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Bojuka Bog
2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Eidolon of Rhetoric
1 Kataki, War's Wage
2 Path to Exile
1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Scavenging Ooze
3 Worship

Modern is a creature's world with probably the exception of KCI, Green Tron, and UWx Control variants as the only other top tier decks in the format that don't necessarily rely on an influx of creatures to win games. CoC would have easily been more expensive today if it made it to the final eight which would mean that people would go gaga over it and start hoarding or selling their copies for better value. Since it didn't happen and GRN spoilers are underway, it just hit me that WotC, as history would dictate, is fond of reprinting banner cards that contain a certain mechanic for a new set that features a nostalgia theme. I don't think there's a better representative for the convoke mechanic than Chord of Calling but I could be wrong. We could be talking about a $4-$6 loss per copy of this card if it gets reprinted entirely, or you could risk losing $1-$3 if you move yours around for a bargain before the whole spoiler season goes underway. That's a decision that I leave to you but I'm moving mine.

The Returning Players of Ravnica

The biggest loser from this bunch would be Legion Loyalist as it is the only card that is currently overpriced due to lack of supply and a decent amount of demand. Abrupt Decay would come in as a close second and even thought Deathrite Shaman is banned almost everywhere, WotC just can't seem to be contented with printing it just recently via Eternal Masters. I wouldn't want to look at more copies of my cards losing their current value in exchange for nothing so try moving around cards that are related to Ravnica in a sense. Modern is a harsh place for speculators as always.

At the moment, there is an abundance of supply for Chord of Calling across all major sites such as StarCityGames, Card Kingdom, ChannelFireball, and lots of vendors via TCGPlayer. I'm not sure if they have inside track of this possibility but it barely matters to big stores if a reprint does happen. Again, this is my feature for freaky Friday because I kinda freaked out with the possibility of a reprint so take it easy on your copies (and me!) if you want to believe my opinion.

And that’s it for this week's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Colorless Matchup Guide: Jeskai and UW Control

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"Control is dead" has long been a mantra of those unsatisfied with Modern. But UWx control decks have had impressive showings lately on the competitive circuit—just last weekend, both Jeskai Control and UW Control made Top 8 at GP Prague and SCG Baltimore, respectively. Thanks to Search for Azcanta and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, it's finally control's time to shine... unless Eternal Scourge has anything to say about it, that is!

The third in my Colorless Matchup Guide series, this article provides the tools to beating control strategies with Colorless Eldrazi Stompy. It presents recent builds, explains sideboard plans, and discusses pre- and post-board roles.

As always, we'll start with my current list.

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Matter Reshaper

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Scavenger Grounds
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Gut Shot
1 Gemstone Caverns

Nothing new here, although I've recently toyed with the idea of a 2nd Surgical over one Bomb in the side. Bridgevine seems to be on the decline, though, making the switch less attractive. I would play another Spyglass in control-heavy metagames.

Jeskai Control

Jeskai Control, by Javier Dominguez (6th, GP Prague)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Enchantments

2 Search for Azcanta

Instants

4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Lightning Helix
2 Electrolyze
3 Logic Knot
1 Negate
4 Cryptic Command
1 Secure the Wastes

Sorceries

1 Supreme Verdict
1 Wrath of God

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Field of Ruin
3 Celestial Colonnade
1 Glacial Fortress
1 Sulfur Falls
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Steam Vents
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
2 Ancestral Vision
2 Celestial Purge
2 Dispel
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Negate
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Settle the Wreckage

Game 1

Jeskai Control has long been one of Colorless Eldrazi Stompy's favorite matchups. At last year's SCG Invitational, I went undefeated in the Modern portion partly thanks to facing Jeskai half the tournament. The deck can't answer Eternal Scourge, struggles against Chalice of the Void, and is just bad against large Eldrazi creatures in general.

All that being said, the deck has gained some serious tools over the past year. While their only hope was once to string together 20 damage in reach, Search for Azcanta and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria give Jeskai mainboard ways to successfully grind us out. To maintain our lead in the matchup, we need to play with these two cards in mind. The simplest way is by hiding our answer cards in hand until the right time: Ghost Quarter to pop a transformed Search and Reality Smasher to attack a resolved Teferi.

Before we jump into sideboarding, here are a few miscellaneous tips for the matchup in general:

  • Stick a Chalice on 1 as early as possible
  • Don't crew Smuggler's Copter into removal
  • Lead on Eternal Scourge when expecting permission, as it can be bought back later. Matter Reshaper is the more important creature to resolve

Sideboarding

-4 Eldrazi Mimic
-4 Simian Spirit Guide
-1 Blinkmoth Nexus (on the draw)

+4 Relic of Progenitus
+1 Sorcerous Spyglass
+2 Gut Shot
+1 Surgical Extraction
+1 Gemstone Caverns (on the draw)

Mimic comes out because of its softness to Lightning Bolt. We're not aggressively hunting Temples after sideboard, so Mimic is likelier to die at a parity loss. On the draw, we cut Blinkmoth over other lands for the same reason (Mutavault gets the nod because it's bigger, and Jeskai doesn't have much to soar over).

Regarding Simian Spirit Guide: turn one Chalice is great against Jeskai game 1, but we're not looking to invest multiple resources into any one card after siding. Opponents will have ways to remove artifacts, and we don't want to two-for-one ourselves. It's also fine to cut 1-2 Chalices for Ratchet Bomb should opponents be particularly token-heavy. Teferi has thankfully supplanted Elspeth, Sun's Champion, once Jeskai's single best card against us, but Settle the Wreckage and Timely Reinforcements can still prove annoying, especially combined with a walker.

Relic of Progenitus is at its best here, nerfing Snapcaster Mage, Search for Azcanta, and Logic Knot while keeping our Scourges active all game through permission and sweepers. Opponents have to remove it if able, but usually let us +1 in the process. Surgical Extraction counters crucial Snapcaster plays and refills us on Scourges should opponents deal with the first one.

While opponents are statistically unlikely to end up at 1 life, the same can't be said of planeswalkers, as Modern players carefully plan their turns so their walkers finish turn cycles at that exact loyalty count. Gut Shot helps fend off enemy reach plans by nabbing Snapcaster, but its chief role here is killing planeswalkers. Mutavault-plus-Shot kills Jace after he Brainstorms on an empty board; Seer-plus-Shot handles a plussed Teferi; Shot alone eats the Teferi that came down and tucked our Chalice.

Dismember answers Lyra Dawnbringer and Baneslayer Angel, as well as Celestial Colonnade, at a significant mana advantage. It also kills Snapcaster Mage, but that's not the point: without Dismember, Lyra would just take over the game. We must have an answer for it by turn five.

Post-Board

Post-board, this matchup becomes more about playing around disruption. Settle the Wreckage is all but guaranteed after siding, as are the rest of the sweepers in our opponent's 75.

Players should try to keep hands with early aggression. That means Matter Reshaper and Eternal Scourge, although of course the latter is preferable. Serum Powder can also help us achieve these hands by exiling Scourge for us. Beyond three-drops, almost anything goes.

Since game 2 is bound to go longer, hands featuring Wastes are already functional mulligans. Opponents are liable to Path or Field us two or more times in a game, and failing to find basics each time can add up. To illustrate the reality of this issue, consider that Sean Allen, who missed Top 8 on breakers at SCG Baltimore last weekend, made space in the manabase for a third Wastes.

Some of our sideboard cards require specific sequencing. Relic of Progenitus is best cast after Jeskai spends precious permission countering Eternal Scourge, or dedicates a turn to casting Surpeme Verdict; that way, the artifact provides an extra plus on cast. Sorcerous Spyglass comes down right after opponents cast a planeswalker, or after we've dished out our threats. It can also be cast in place of a threat if we're playing around a sweeper, or to see if it's worth attacking a certain way or leaving mana up to pop Relic. Smuggler's Copter too has a sequencing quirk after siding: it's usually best cast after our actual creatures, as opponents will leave mana up and have answers for it. Ideally, Copter resolves the turn before opponents start casting planeswalkers.

Takeaways

Jeskai Control is harder to beat than it used to be, but still a favorable matchup by almost any metric. Eternal Scourge is head-and-shoulders superior to any of our other cards, which is wonderful news since Serum Powder finds copies with laudable consistency. Players who keep answers in hand for Search, Teferi, and Lyra should have trouble losing to Jeskai.

UW Control

UW Control, by Ted Felicetti (6th, SCG Balitmore)

Creatures

2 Vendilion Clique
3 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere
2 Search for Azcanta

Instants

4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
2 Telling Time
3 Cryptic Command
1 Remand
1 Logic Knot
1 Mana Leak
1 Negate

Sorceries

4 Terminus
1 Oust

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Field of Ruin
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
7 Island
2 Plains

Sideboard

3 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Dispel
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Negate
1 Settle the Wreckage
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Timely Reinforcements

Game 1

Jeskai and UW share many cards, including Search for Azcanta, Field of Ruin, and Path to Exile. Much of the same knowledge therefore applies to both matchups. But UW is a different beast, and one far better equipped to handle Colorless Eldrazi Stompy.

Contemporary UW Control decks overwhelmingly lean on Terminus as their sweeper-of-choice, to our detriment; the sorcery happens to be Modern's only card to permanently answer Eternal Scourge. Relinquishing that unassailable angle does hurt, but all is not lost. UW still lines up poorly against our cards on a fundamental level: Thought-Knot attacks their hand, Scourge weakens their spot removal, and creature lands team with Smuggler's Copter and Reality Smasher to threaten planeswalkers and keep the pressure on through board wipes.

The key playstyle difference between Jeskai and UW is how many creatures we commit to the board at a time. Against Jeskai, we can slam Scourges willy-nilly without fearing sweepers thanks to Scavenger Grounds. Now, we must pace ourselves like any other aggro deck.

Another difference is UW's lack of Lightning Bolt. This deck has no clean answer to Eldrazi Mimic, making the creature one of our better cards to open. Mimic plus a Mutavault provides ample aggression, and keeping assault squads compact in this way lets us recover easily from Terminus. That said, a turn-one Mimic often rewards fast follow-ups; UW is then forced to blow Path to Exile on our small creatures to have enough life for later, helping Seer and Smasher stick down the road. UW is easier to kill quickly than Jeskai.

Sideboarding

-2 Matter Reshaper
-4 Simian Spirit Guide
-4 Chalice of the Void
-1 Scavenger Grounds  (on the draw)

+4 Relic of Progenitus
+2 Ratchet Bomb
+1 Sorcerous Spyglass
+2 Gut Shot
+1 Surgical Extraction
+1 Gemstone Caverns (on the draw)

Chalice of the Void, while excellent against Jeskai, stinks against UW. It hits painfully few cards, and opponents can easily nab it (and extra copies) with Detention Sphere. Even if Ratchet Bomb removes the enchantment, Chalice returns on 0, turning UW's Paths and Opts back online regardless. Without much to accelerate into, Simian Spirit Guide also gets the ax.

Trading two Matter Reshaper for two Ratchet Bomb is my go-to plan against UW, but it could just as easily be one for one or zero for zero. Matter Reshaper is just our worst threat in this matchup since it never triggers. Ratchet Bomb can tick up on an empty board to threaten planeswalkers in a pinch, but is mostly here to remove enchantments and quell token fiascos from the likes of Timely Reinforcements or Secure the Wastes. Detention Sphere and Search for Azcanta are the most common enchantments to destroy, but Runed Halo can really put a stick in our spokes if opponents have it.

Bomb becomes more of a liability if we expect Stony Silence. I've found opponents less keen on boarding Stony in for game 2, but very keen for game 3. Before then, they simply don't know how many activating artifacts we play, as they haven't seen Relic and Bomb. Between those, Powder, and Copter, Stony can effectively "Blood Moon" us by blanking multiple cards in our hand and deck. The best way to beat Stony is to counter-board by removing our activating artifacts. Serum Powder and Ratchet Bomb are the first to go; I like keeping Copter and Relic, since their upside is so high (especially the former now that UW has gone Miracles). Prioritizing openers with lots of aggression punishes opponents for keeping hands with a do-nothing enchantment.

Last but not least, Scavenger Grounds gets the cut for Gemstone on the draw. UW ups the sweeper count relative to Jeskai, so it's important that our lands help us rebuild. Manlands happen to be one of the best kinds of utility lands in this matchup, and UW can't Bolt a Blinkmoth. Besides, Grounds won't rebuy many Scourges vs. the 4 Terminus deck.

Post-Board

Despite benching Simian Spirit Guide, we trend more aggressive after siding, mainly because we're no longer spending early turns producing a Chalice. It also becomes challenging for UW to set up a clock against us, as we keep all our mainboard removal, and Gut Shot pulls double-duty as planeswalker pounder and Clique killer; they then trend more reactive. In other words, our respective game 1 roles are reinforced, albeit with both players toting some narrower bullets.

That's good news for us, and our sideboard plan takes full advantage of the fact that UW doesn't play Lightning Bolt. Path to Exile can slow an early assault, but in doing so ramps us into Reality Smasher and manland attacks. UW's planeswalkers are too slow to promise recovery, while its walls—Celestial Colonnade and Lyra Dawnbringer—seem to always meet a Dismember. The skill to master in these post-board games is front-loading as much damage as possible without building game states that can't recover from Terminus.

Ratchet Bomb can be played whenever and start ticking up to 3. It's fine with that many charge counters; Detention Sphere can no longer stick, and 1-2 more ticks let us blow up a planeswalker or Lyra. If opponents won't recover without tokens, or token generators are telegraphed, it's usually best to hold Bomb in hand until the right time.

Smuggler's Copter is good to come down right away since it gives our creatures pseudo-haste, letting them tap for damage the turn they enter the battlefield. In the face of countermagic, resolving the artifact should take priority over resolving a three-drop creature, except when we have no other threats in play or in hand.

Takeaways

While UW lines up better against us than Jeskai, I wouldn't call the matchup unfavorable by any means. But it does work differently than it used to, and now revolves around a new set of cards. Succeeding is a matter of learning how to play to and around those cards.

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy has to be one of the few decks whose UW matchup improves after sideboarding. We owe this paradigm shift to Humans, the deck responsible for UWx's widespread adoption of Baneslayer Angel. Unlike Humans, Gideon of the Trials and Elspeth, Sun's Champion are way scarier for us than a 5/5. Dismember enables a more focused aggro plan after siding, at last unfettered by clunky Chalices and Guides and undeterred by a potential damage race.

"De-Relic'd!"

While Hollow One and Bridgevine mirror Colorless Eldrazi Stompy's big-creatures-fast approach, they're nowhere near as disruptive, nor as dynamic. CES is mostly unique among comparably aggressive decks in its ability to shift roles and adapt its strategy. That ability is well on display against control.

If you have any questions about the Jeskai or UW matchups, let me know in the comments. Until then, remember the Golden Rule: Cavern of Souls is for amateurs!

Undervalued Cards in Standard (Part 2 – RIX)

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Welcome back, readers!

I got some positive feedback from last week's article (which can be found here). Today we'll continue this series and take a look at Rivals of Ixalan mythics that may be undervalued at this time. We will continue to use the same logical arguments for these sets that we used for Ixalan, which are listed below:

  1. There is a superior alternative currently available.
  2. There is currently a more powerful archetype that makes the card unplayable.
  3. The card lacks necessary support (either color or archetypal).
  4. The card has been misevaluated.

Rivals of Ixalan

There was an error retrieving a chart for Twilight Prophet
  1. There is currently no better alternative option.
  2. The current Standard does include some black, however, it's typically a splash color for removal as opposed to a main color.
  3. We haven't seen a good ascend deck yet, though the mechanic does seem powerful (once you have it you can't lose it, so it's similar to an emblem).
  4. Despite seeing very limited play, this card is still sitting in the $8-ish range, which means there is currently still demand for it. I had hoped to pick up copies in the $4-$5 range (assuming they didn't find a Standard home), so the current price does make them a bit less attractive. However, if this card ends up in a Tier 1 deck, it could easily be a $15-$20 card. With Golgari being one of the guilds in Guilds of Ravnica and the Golgari tribe tending to be one that likes to play a midrange style, the ascend mechanic would likely work well in this style of deck.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Azor, the Lawbringer
  1. UW Control currently has Teferi, Hero of Dominaria as its big bomb. Unfortunately, Azor isn't nearly as good as Teferi.
  2. As stated above, UW Control already has Teferi as the finisher of choice; Azor seems like a poor replacement (and in fact Teferi can use its -3 ability to tuck Azor, whose ETB ability would normally protect him).
  3. UW Control is one of the top decks in Standard, so this card would have plenty of support if it found a home in the deck.
  4. This card feels properly evaluated, though I could see it as a sideboard card in UW Control decks if the format slows down.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca
  1. This is superior to Tishana for a UG Merfolk "top end" card.
  2. UG Merfolk is currently outclassed in Standard. It has a hard time beating multiple wrath effects from UW Control, and is too slow against Rb Aggro.
  3. There is a fair amount of support for a UG Merfolk deck, and this card spiked briefly to $25 after Rivals came out. If R/x aggro loses some of its dominance it would make sense for a midrange UG Merfolk deck to find a home in the format (as the blue would help fight against UW Control).
  4. I think this card has a lot of potential. While its current evaluation is heavily influenced by the current metagame, with a change in said metagame this could easily be a $12-$15 card. It is important to note that we will not see the Simic Guild until Ravnica Allegiance.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Elenda, the Dusk Rose
  1. Four mana for a 1/1 lifelink that replaces itself if it dies immediately doesn't come off as extremely powerful.
  2. Orzhov Vampires is currently being held back by Goblin Chainwhirler. There aren't a lot of playable anthem effects in Standard, which would make the tokens safe from Chainwhirler.
  3. There is a fair amount of support for an Orzhov Vampires deck, however, as stated above it's underpowered.
  4. The card is properly evaluated. It seems most at home in a deck that can play it and kill multiple creatures quickly to buff its power and make sure that its death trigger is worth the mana investment.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Angrath, the Flame-Chained
  1. There aren't any other Rakdos planeswalkers in Standard.
  2. This card sees some play in certain Grixis Control sideboards already; Grixis Control is probably Tier 1.5 at this time.
  3. This card has some support currently. The biggest problem is that Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is a much more powerful dual-color planeswalker and UW Control currently has more support than Grixis Control. However, Guilds of Ravnica will include both Dimir and Izzet, so Grixis is likely to see a lot of additional support, whereas Azorius will not be out until Ravnica Allegiance. So we may see Grixis rise.
  4. The card is powerful enough; it just needs additional support cards to really find a home in Standard. I like it as a pickup at current prices, despite the fact that Rakdos won't appear until Allegiance.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Timestream Navigator
  1. There are no creatures that provide extra turns currently. However, there is Nexus of Fate, which is a safer, more consistent way to take extra turns.
  2. Currently Bant Turns is a powerful deck and arguably close to Tier 1 (if not Tier 1). However, in an environment ripe with Abrade and Unlicensed Disintegration, keeping a creature around for a full turn is difficult, especially since it requires the City's Blessing to be anything more than a 1/1 for two mana.
  3. There currently isn't any deck that tries to get to the City's Blessing as quickly as possible. If the format slows down and/or shifts away from R/b Aggro being so dominant, such a deck might be able to come about.
  4. I think the card has been evaluated pretty fairly. It does seem like a fantastic sideboard tech against Bant Turns. They play almost no removal and games take a long time, so hitting the City's Blessing shouldn't be to difficult.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Azor's Gateway
  1. While there isn't any card that one would say directly competes with it, if you want to filter through cards for two mana, it seems Search of Azcanta is a better option (that doesn't require continual mana input).
  2. This card seems like it would serve as a good option to replace Search for Azcanta, except control decks are the ones most likely to benefit from this card filtering and they can just play Search. If a non-blue-based control deck were to pop up, I wouldn't be surprised to see this card on the list. The decks that are going to want something like this need to really desire the loot-like ability and consider the flip a nice benefit.
  3. This card doesn't really have a ton of support at this time. If WotC printed something that allowed you to flip it without getting the five exiled cards with different CMCs, then it would be extremely powerful (but I don't see that happening anytime soon). The flip side obviously wants you to have a fair amount of life, and the reprinting of Banefire does make me think if a R/x based control deck ever arose this could easily help fuel a game-winning Banefire.
  4. This card is difficult to evaluate because the flip clause seems difficult to reach. Arguably you only need to exile one land, and then cards with 1,2,3, and 4 CMCs. I would love to get a judge's input on how the split and/or fuse cards would count with this ability, as if you could count both sides then you might be able to turbo-flip this card in Modern.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Trapjaw Tyrant
  1. While there is no direct alternative, the format currently has Fumigate and Settle the Wreckage as mass creature removal that also fall into roughly the same CMC slot.
  2. As I stated last week, the Dinosaur archetype is currently stymied by the power level of the R/b Aggro decks, particularly Ahn-Crop Crasher, which alleviates the danger of something like the enrage mechanic (which is best abused when the opponent is forced to attack into it).
  3. There is a fair amount of support for the Dinosaur archetype, though not a lot in white. This card's double-white cost would likely require a deck that didn't splash white, but there appears to be more support for Dinosaurs in Gruul colors.
  4. I think this card has been evaluated pretty fairly. The enrage mechanic as a whole seems like a fantastic solution to Goblin Chainwhirler especially, yet oddly enough we haven't seen it show up despite Chainwhirler's dominance.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Huatli, Radiant Champion
  1. This is a pretty big disappointment for a four-drop multi-color planeswalker. Hautli can't protect herself at all and comes in with relatively low loyalty. For four mana you can play Karn, Scion of Urza which doesn't require both white and green, can protect itself, and also serves as card advantage.
  2. This card seems like it would be best in a token strategy as she has a relatively low starting loyalty and all her abilities favor having lots of creatures.
  3. Despite the fact that Selesnya is the color combination most known for generating tokens (and we have white Vampire tokens in Standard), there just doesn't seem to be enough right now. I could see her in a deck with Tendershoot Dryad that tries to reach the City's Blessing quickly with token creatures, but such an archetype currently doesn't exist and X/1 tokens are especially bad in a world full of Goblin Chainwhirler.
  4. I think this card has been properly evaluated. It reminds me a lot of Gideon, Champion of Justice in that it looks like it could have potential, but it needs a lot to go right.

Ixalan Block - Notable Rares

So far I've reviewed two of the remaining four sets at rotation. While my focus has been on mythics (as being scarcer means their price ceiling is higher), I would be remiss if I didn't include some honorable mentions from Ixalan block at the rare spot. For these I restricted myself to rares under $3—the price ceiling is far lower than mythics, so to see any significant gains we need a low buy-in.

Conqueror's Galleon

This may be more of a pet card to me, but the flip side of this one is extremely powerful (six-mana Regrowth every turn...). I think the biggest problem is that the type of deck that wants to play with the flip side most is a control deck, which would have a difficult time flipping it in the first place due to the Crew 4 requirement.

I do think this is a solid medium-term Commander pickup, though. It can go in any deck, and some color combinations don't have access to Regrowth style effects at all.

Kopala, Warden of Waves

I have mentioned that UG Merfolk might prove to be a viable archetype in the new format (especially if R/b Aggro gets gutted as it's expected to). Kopala serves as a pseudo Kira, Great Glass-Spinner except it's the correct tribe. Kopala can certainly put a wrench in the plans of any deck planning on using targeted removal to slow down the Merfolk player.

Primal Amulet

I've been playing with this card some on MTGArena in a Jeskai Turns deck (instead of fogging I use Chandra, Torch of Defiance and Jaya Ballard to help me turbo out Nexus of Fate). Losing Chandra will hurt that deck a lot, but I do play a one-of Amulet in it and it has done some solid work (copying a Nexus feels dirty).

This also feels like a fantastic Commander card for the medium term. Typically only red or blue get the opportunity to copy spells, so providing this ability to decks without that color combination does seem powerful.

Regisaur Alpha

If a Gruul Dinosaur deck does occur post-rotation this seems like it would be an auto-include in the deck.

River's Rebuke

While this is nowhere near as powerful as Cyclonic Rift, if you are playing a blue control deck without white (which has all the wraths), then this could become the default "sweeper" of choice.

Sunbird's Invocation

While this card's current price is heavily influenced by Commander players already, it's still a card with a lot of power behind it. Unfortunately in the current metagame you can easily die before casting it (if you're playing against R/b aggro) or if you're playing against UW they can use Teferi to tuck it.

Tocatli Honor Guard

One of my good friends brought up the fact that this card wrecks Modern Humans (if you can play it on turn two). While we've already had Torpor Orb, slapping it onto a body that can block small creatures doesn't seem too bad. It's a bulk rare currently, so I wouldn't go buying a ton of them, but it's worth keeping in the back of your mind when you need a cheap throw-in to even out a trade.

Arch of Orazca

I've mentioned that we currently have no ascend deck in Standard (predominantly because it would likely be a midrange deck and currently the aggro and control decks are keeping midrange archetypes pushed out). This would likely be an auto-include in any such deck (though likely a one- or two-of), but it's a powerful ability and one that can be used at instant speed if a game grinds out. I have seen it played in some control decks as a significant threat of card advantage against other control decks as well.

Blood Sun

This card never really met people's expectations, however, it does hose a lot of the Ixalan block "flip lands." Many of these lands have cool and powerful abilities, so if any decks using them become powerful this does act as a good foil. It's also near bulk status despite originally pre-selling in the $10+ range.

Journey to Eternity

Another card whose current price is heavily propped up due to Commander players, this one isn't that hard to flip (though we are currently lacking many good sac outlets in Standard). It would definitely serve as a great GBx midrange threat that would likely provide some good card advantage (especially with ETB creatures).

Profane Procession

While I have to admit that paying eight mana to exile an opponent's creature seems terrible, the fact that it can act as repeated removal is definitely something to consider. With Nicol Bolas, the Ravager finding a home in the Grixis Control decks, this card does seem like a pretty good out to him (since they likely can't flip him before you have the mana to exile him).

Storm the Vault

While we haven't seen any URx artifact-based decks take off, the power of this card is undeniable. After all, its flip side is an even better Tolarian Academy, which is banned in Legacy and restricted in Vintage.

If such a deck materialized, this card would likely help it do very broken things. Though at this point, given Kaladesh block was heavily artifact-based and no deck materialized yet, it is hard to imagine what Guilds of Ravnica block would have to include in the Izzet guild to make this card spike.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #8

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This past weekend the relative newcomer to Modern, Modular Affinity, scaled to the top of Grand Prix Prague. I might’ve been a bit hasty in marking the deck’s namesake card, Hardened Scales, as a “fold” in the previous article—both non-foils and foils have spiked a bit more since it took down the GP. However, I still think you should sell into the hype if you don’t plan on playing the deck because, as I mentioned, the card only sees play in this deck.

I can definitely tell you the deck has legs though. I lost to it in the top four of a PPTQ on Saturday, August 25. The deck won the tournament, but his opponent who was on Grixis Shadow conceded to him. Nonetheless, it still won. And although I think Hardened Scales is a “fold,” there’s a nice “hold” in the deck that I'll get to below.

As always, the goal of this series is to continuously cover two categories of cards:

  1. Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  2. Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Hold ‘Em

Walking Ballista - Aether Revolt

There was an error retrieving a chart for Walking Ballista

Previously, I talked about some cards to pick up for Standard as rotation nears. On the flipside, here’s a card that’s a reasonable pick-up as it rotates out of Standard.

This card has skyrocketed in popularity in Modern over the past year. Most notably, it sees play as a four-of in Bridgevine and the Modular Affinity deck mentioned above. And don’t overlook Anneliese Faustino’s second-place finish with Mono-Green Tron at the SCG Baltimore Open this past weekend.

Modern: Bridgevine by Hyeri0418

Creatures

2 Bloodghast
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Gravecrawler
3 Hangarback Walker
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Stitcher's Supplier
4 Vengevine
3 Viscera Seer
4 Walking Ballista

Non-Creature Spells

1 Cathartic Reunion
2 Corpse Churn
4 Faithless Looting
4 Bridge from Below

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Big Game Hunter
2 Collective Brutality
2 Darkblast
2 Ingot Chewer
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Thoughtseize

Modern: Hardened Modular by Lauri Pispa

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Arcbound Worker
4 Hangarback Walker
4 Steel Overseer
4 Walking Ballista

Non-Creature Spells

4 Ancient Stirrings
2 Animation Module
4 Mox Opal
2 Throne of Geth
3 Welding Jar
4 Darksteel Citadel
1 Evolutionary Leap
4 Hardened Scales

Lands

1 Blinkmoth Nexus
6 Forest
2 Horizon Canopy
4 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Pendelhaven
1 Phyrexia's Core
1 Ruins of Oran-Rief

Sideboard

4 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Karn, Scion of Urza
4 Nature's Claim
2 Surgical Extraction

Modern: Mono-Green Tron by Anneliese Faustino

Creatures

3 Walking Ballista
3 Wurmcoil Engine
1 World Breaker
2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Non-Creature Spells

4 Karn Liberated
2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Expedition Map
4 Oblivion Stone
2 Relic of Progenitus
4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Sylvan Scrying

Lands

4 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sanctum of Ugin
1 Scavenger Grounds
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower

Sideboard

1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Trinisphere
3 Thought-Knot Seer
3 Thragtusk
4 Nature's Claim
2 Spatial Contortion
1 Warping Wail

Enemy Fastlands - Kaladesh (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spirebluff Canal

The enemy-colored fastlands are also reasonable pickups through rotation since they probably won’t get reprinted for a while. Just look at the Scars of Mirrodin fastlands; they haven’t even been reprinted yet since their debut in 2010. In case you missed my earlier analysis on the Scars lands, they're a strong candidate for a reprint soon, so I would still get rid of extra copies you’re not using and pick them back up later.

I would prioritize picking up the Kaladesh fastlands in the following order:

  • Spirebluff Canal
  • Botanical Sanctum
  • Inspiring Vantage
  • Blooming Marsh
  • Concealed Courtyard

Spirebluff Canal sees the most play in Modern via Storm and Wizards. And Botanical Sanctum has been lifted to stardom thanks to Bant Spirits. Although Steven Borakove took down the SCG Baltimore Open with UW Spirits, Ondrej Strasky and Joakim Haram both top-eighted Grand Prix Prague with Bant Spirits.

Modern: Bant Spirits by Ondrej Strasky

Creatures

4 Drogskol Captain
2 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Phantasmal Image
1 Rattlechains
3 Selfless Spirit
4 Spell Queller
4 Supreme Phantom

Non-Creature Spells

4 Collected Company
4 Path to Exile
3 Aether Vial

Lands

3 Botanical Sanctum
1 Breeding Pool
3 Flooded Strand
1 Forest
1 Hallowed Fountain
3 Horizon Canopy
1 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Moorland Haunt
1 Plains
1 Temple Garden
2 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
1 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Rest in Peace
3 Stony Silence
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Unified Will
2 Worship

Modern: Bant Spirits by Joakim Haram

Creatures

4 Drogskol Captain
2 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Rattlechains
2 Remorseful Cleric
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Spell Queller
3 Supreme Phantom

Non-Creature Spells

4 Collected Company
3 Path to Exile

Lands

2 Botanical Sanctum
1 Breeding Pool
1 Cavern of Souls
4 Flooded Strand
1 Forest
1 Gavony Township
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Horizon Canopy
1 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Plains
1 Temple Garden
3 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Qasali Pridemage
2 Rest in Peace
1 Settle the Wreckage
2 Stony Silence
3 Unified Will
1 Worship

Elvish Clancaller - M19 (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elvish Clancaller

Circling back to Standard cards that’ll stick around for rotation, here’s a card that doesn’t see any play outside of Modern Elves yet. But this could join forces with Llanowar Elves, Steel Leaf Champion, Druid of the Cowl, Elfhame Druid, Reclamation Sage, Thorn Lieutenant, Vivien Reid, and Karn, Scion of Urza, plus whatever else comes out in Guilds of Ravnica in October, to form a Standard Elves deck.

Modern: Elves by Jonathan Asquith

Creatures

4 Dwynen's Elite
4 Elvish Archdruid
4 Elvish Clancaller
4 Elvish Mystic
3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
4 Heritage Druid
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Shaman of the Pack

Non-Creature Spells

4 Collected Company
3 Lead the Stampede

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
4 Forest
4 Gilt-Leaf Palace
4 Horizon Canopy
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
1 Pendelhaven

Sideboard

2 Choke
4 Damping Sphere
1 Dismember
2 Kitchen Finks
2 Reclamation Sage
2 Scavenging Ooze
2 Shapers' Sanctuary

Standard Elves Crew in October 2018

Noble Hierarch - Pro Tour Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

It’s promo time again! This one is a bit pricey but worth it. Although this doesn’t beat the judge promo, it’s the next best thing to it. I imagine that Noble Hierarch will continue to get reprinted in Masters sets, which might bring the price down a bit. But the judge and RPTQ promos will just keep going up. Demand for the card is high, since it sees play as a four-of in Humans, Spirits, and Infect in Modern, as well as Infect in Legacy.

There was another round of Regional Pro Tour Qualifiers this past weekend, which bumped up the supply but not by much. So if you need or want these, this is probably a safe time to pick them up. And if you have other versions besides the promos, I would dump those and move into these.

Serum Powder - Iconic Masters (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serum Powder

I’ve had this cards in my TCGplayer cart for a while and have been close to pulling the trigger on buying them. They’ve even gone up a dollar or two since I added them to my cart months ago. Outside of Vintage, this only really sees play in Modern’s Colorless Eldrazi which just came in ninth place at the SCG Baltimore Open.

It'll just be a matter of time before another deck comes along that looks to mulligan aggressively and/or abuse the exile zone. When that time hits, this card will see an uptick, because it’s only been printed here and in Darksteel.

Modern: Colorless Eldrazi by Sean Allen

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
4 Matter Reshaper
4 Reality Smasher
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Thought-Knot Seer

Non-Creature Spells

4 Chalice of the Void
1 Relic of Progenitus
4 Serum Powder
1 Smuggler's Copter
4 Dismember

Lands

3 Wastes
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Eldrazi Temple
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Mutavault
1 Scavenger Grounds
4 Zhalfirin Void
2 Gemstone Caverns

Sideboard

4 Ratchet Bomb
3 Relic of Progenitus
1 Gut Shot
3 Spatial Contortion
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Karn, Scion of Urza
1 Gemstone Caverns

Mind Stone - Iconic Masters (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mind Stone

This card has been printed quite a few times, but there are only three foil printings: 10th Edition, Iconic Masters, and the WPN & Gateway Promo. The promo is by far the best version but is quite pricey as it hovers around $10. But you can pick up foil versions of the Iconic Masters ones on TCGplayer for around $1-2 each. This sees play as a four-of in Modern’s Ironworks Combo, which came in fourth place at Grand Prix Prague...and in multiples in Colorless Eldrazi’s cousin, Eldrazi Tron.

Modern: Eldrazi Tron by Adrian Hernandez

Creatures

2 Endbringer
3 Matter Reshaper
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Walking Ballista

Non-Creature Spells

2 Dismember
2 All Is Dust
1 Batterskull
1 Basilisk Collar
2 Mind Stone
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Expedition Map
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Karn, Scion of Urza
2 Karn Liberated

Lands

1 Sea Gate Wreckage
2 Ghost Quarter
2 Cavern of Souls
4 Urza's Tower
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Eldrazi Temple
4 Urza's Mine
2 Wastes

Sideboard

1 Karn, Scion of Urza
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
2 Warping Wail
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Spatial Contortion
1 Wurmcoil Engine
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Ratchet Bomb
1 Crucible of Worlds

Night’s Whisper - Eternal Masters (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Night's Whisper

Now it’s time for some Pauper action! If you stay current with Magic Online results, you’ll know that this card pops up quite a bit.

But the nice thing about Night's Whisper is that it also sees play as a four-of in Modern’s Grishoalbrand.

Modern: Grishoalbrand by Todd Schulzetenberg

Creatures

2 Borborygmos Enraged
4 Griselbrand
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Worldspine Wurm

Non-Creature Spells

1 Manamorphose
1 Lightning Axe
2 Desperate Ritual
4 Through the Breach
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Goryo's Vengeance
1 Collective Brutality
2 Tormenting Voice
4 Night's Whisper
4 Faithless Looting

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
2 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Swamp
4 Temple of Malice
4 Bloodstained Mire
5 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Pact of Negation
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
2 Bontu's Last Reckoning
3 Blood Moon
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Ancient Grudge

Watchlist

Force Spike - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force Spike

I noticed that this version of Force Spike’s stock is low or nonexistent on Card Kingdom, Star City Games, and Channel Fireball. I might just have a soft spot for this card owing the glory days of Mono-Blue Control in the late 90s, because this card doesn’t really see any play in Legacy or Pauper. That's why I haven’t pulled the trigger on buying these even though it’s a sweet promo.

I decided to create this section for cards like this; and to take it a step further, I’ve created a publicly shared spreadsheet which you can bookmark to help you stay current with the cards I mention in my articles on the fly.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Summary

Hold ‘Em

  • Walking Ballista - Aether Revolt
  • Spirebluff Canal - Kaladesh (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Botanical Sanctum - Kaladesh (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Inspiring Vantage - Kaladesh (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Blooming Marsh - Kaladesh (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Concealed Courtyard - Kaladesh (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Elvish Clancaller - M19 (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Noble Hierarch - Pro Tour Promos
  • Serum Powder - Iconic Masters (Foil)
  • Mind Stone - Iconic Masters (Foil)
  • Night's Whisper - Eternal Masters (Foil)

Wishlist

  • Force Spike - FNM Promos

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Core 2019 Financial Power Rankings: Mythic Edition

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You've been waiting to read it, I've been waiting to write it, and now it's here! Welcome back to my financial power ranking series, where cards duke it out to see which is most worthy of your investment dollars.

Remember, this series highlights an integral part of my investment strategy—buying cards from a set when the set's value is at its lowest point, in the hopes of selling the cards three to nine months later when the set is at its peak. Fundamentally this is an investment strategy intended to blunt some of the risk involved in speculating on individual cards. This is also an investment strategy that is not about quick flipping—I fully expect to sell Core 2019 cards from November through April. Check out my Calendar Guide to Investing on MTGO for a fleshed out explanation of this investment strategy.

The window to invest in Core 2019 opened much earlier than usual, and prices have already risen to $70. This took me by surprise, and in fact as of this article's writing I've made only a modest investment into one card on this list (the card I rank #1, it turns out). I'll be keeping my eyes peeled over the next month for card prices to dip.

A brief refresher on the categories:

  • Risk: Relative to its current price, how much room is there for this card to fall? How much concern should you have that you'll be unloading this card at a loss in the future?
  • Potential: How much room does this card have to grow? Growth in an absolute sense (dollars and cents) and growth as a rate of return (percentage) are both important factors, and I weight them equally.
  • Chance of Success: How likely will this card be a successful speculation? Is it a surefire bet or more of a dark horse?

The Bad and the Ugly

Core 2019 offers an abundance of horrid speculation opportunities. There are just as many pure Fs in Core Set 2019 as there were Ds and Fs in Dominaria. These five are particularly bad because they have room to fall and definitely aren't going up.

11. Sarkhan, Fireblood


Risk: High
Potential: Limited-moderate
Chance of Success: 15%

Sarkhan, currently worth $7.80, is a powerful planeswalker that is already seeing a lot of Modern play. The problem is that it's very difficult for a new card not seeing play in Standard to hold that value. I think its Standard viability will become nonexistent once Glorybringer rotates in the Fall, and at that time it will be worth picking some up. I'm only interested in Sarkhan below $4.

Verdict: D-

10. Vaevictis Asmadi, the Dire


Risk: low-moderate
Potential: Limited
Chance of Success: <5%

Even though this creature has wings, it will never be better than Carnage Tyrant.

Fun fact: Wizards has never printed a vanilla 6/6 flyer for 6.

Verdict: D-

9. Crucible of Worlds


Risk: low
Potential: Limited
Chance of Success: 5%

Now is a good time to pick up your copies if you need them for eternal play, but I have a high degree of confidence that this card will be mired at its current $2 price for a long time. Something truly astonishing would have to be printed in the next few sets for this to become a worthwhile investment.

Verdict: D-

8. Palladia-Mors, the Ruiner


Risk: low
Potential: Limited
Chance of Success: 5%

Palladia-Mors is the first card on this list that has the look of a Standard-playable card. The problem is that Carnage Tyrant will be in the format for the entire time that Palladia-Mors will, and that makes it hard to envision it ever seeing play.

Verdict: D

7. Tezzeret, Artifice Master


Risk: Low-Moderate
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 40%

Tezzeret is a powerful planeswalker, and its generic power level will likely improve once Goblin Chainwhirler loses metagame share. Two things hurt its potential. (1) Ravnica is not an artifact plane; and (2) Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is generally better.

As with Sarkhan, I expect this card to lose some value at rotation, and I think it might be worth picking some up at that time. $4 is a tad high, but something closer to $2.50 would make Tezzeret an attractive speculation opportunity.

Verdict: C-

6. Nicol Bolas, the Ravager


Risk: Moderate-High
Potential: Moderate-High
Chance of Success: 40%

It's hard to know where to put Nicol Bolas on this list. Right now Nicol Bolas is going for $15.50, and that just seems awfully high for a card that likely won't be seeing much play after rotation. Six to nine months from now, though, I could see Nicol Bolas commanding $25 as a playset in Standard's best deck. My recommendation is to wait—keep your capital liquid!

Verdict: C-

5. Scapeshift


Risk: Low
Potential: Limited-Moderate
Chance of Success: 75%

I regret not having already invested in Scapeshift. I should have treated Scapeshift's reprint as a Masters set reprint, buying in a few weeks after Core 2019's release. It has slowly been going up ever since, and I expect that to continue over the coming year. Lesson learned for next year's Core Set reprints.

Verdict: C

4. Resplendent Angel


Risk: Low-Moderate
Potential: High
Chance of Success: 30%

There's stiff competition at the three-drop slot in white: History of Benalia is better overall, and Benalish Marshal will likely be preferred in most decks.

That Resplendent Angel is going for $5.50 despite seeing minimal play signals that investors believe strongly in this card. Short of a Thragtusk reprint, however, I don't think this card will breakout over white's other stellar options. If it does, it would likely shoot up to $15 as a small-set mythic, so the potential is real and alluring.

Verdict: C

3. Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants


Risk: Low-Moderate
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 50%

I think Ajani is the most underrated card in Core 2019. Although it ostensibly doesn't generate value on its own, the -2 should be a way to generate value on an empty board if your deck is built to take advantage of his +1. Ajani looks like a $7.50-$10 planeswalker and is an attractive speculation between $3.00 and $5.00. Sadly it's still north of that, currently at $5.96, and I'm unsure how I'm going to proceed.

Verdict: C+

 2. Vivien Reid


Risk: Moderate
Potential: Moderate-High
Chance of Success: 50%

Vivien Reid is the most enigmatic card on this list. A few years ago I would have said, "Obviously a $5-$10 card. Just look at Liliana, Death's Majesty or Ob Nixilis, Reignited." But then Vraska, Relic Seeker and Carnage Tyrant came, both spiking above $15. Vivien will play in that same space (a sideboard staple of Tier 1 green decks), with far less supply to go around.

I'm hesitant to be a buyer at her current $9.50 price, but I fear that hesitancy is rooted in old prejudices formed from old price patterns. Green would have to be pushed out of the metagame for her to settle below $9 or $10, and I think spikes above $15 are likely. She's just plain powerful.

Know that there is some risk here and that past precedent is very mixed on planeswalkers like her commanding such a high price.

Verdict: C+

1. Chromium, the Mutable


Risk: Low
Potential: Moderate-High
Chance of Success: 75%

Chromium is a premier mirror breaker, and a better one likely won't be printed during its time in Standard. Rosewater noted that Chromium was created specifically as a mirror breaker for Standard (Play Design noted that Standard needed one), and so this should be the next incarnation of Sphinx of the Final Word.

Sphinx of the Final Word spiked to $12 during its life in Standard, and I think it a safe bet that Chromium will at least double its $2.00 price tag. The only reason to be worried is that it is three colors, but Teferi's presence in Standard alleviates that concern for me.

Verdict: A-

Daily Stock Watch – Hangarback Walker

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I remember how I was writing about cards from the Bridgevine deck a few weeks back and I didn't actually expect I'd be doing something like that for some time again for a different deck. However, here we are again and I honestly wanted to write about two cards at the same time but I feel like this one deserves more attention as its side-by-side buddy is still Standard legal. Today's card is a resurgent finance spec that is rewarding its believers despite of its downtime since it peaked.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hangarback Walker

When I saw an MPS of this card, I knew that it was going to be special. I was able to keep at least 20 copies of this card until now after taking them in sometime in the latter part of 2016 when it reached what I thought was its rock bottom at a little over $2. I almost sold it when it rebounded nicely before 2017 entered but I got greedy and held on to them longer, only to see the price dip down close to how much I got them for. Today, I am rewarded nicely by that greedy yet lucky decision to have faith in a card that looked virtually useless in Modern for what it does. Hangarback Walker has always been a strong creature for me and I doubt that people will still lose faith in Walking Ballista going forward as this two will be featured in a lot of decks that would love to have a mana sink, or a creature that could be cast for free and still be useful in a dragging game. Whatever the circumstances may be, we could be certain for now that these two creatures will always have a home in Modern.

In case you missed out on what deck I'm talking about, here's a refresher for you:

Hardened Modular by Lauri Pispa

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Arcbound Worker
4 Hangarback Walker
4 Steel Overseer
4 Walking Ballista

Other Spells

2 Animation Module
1 Evolutionary Leap
4 Hardened Scales
4 Mox Opal
2 Throne of Geth
3 Welding Jar
4 Ancient Stirrings

Lands

1 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
6 Forest
2 Horizon Canopy
4 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Pendelhaven
1 Phyrexia's Core
1 Ruins of Oran-Rief

Sideboard

4 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Karn, Scion of Urza
4 Nature's Claim
2 Surgical Extraction

I've already constructed a carbon copy list of this deck in paper and will test it out over the weekend for a PPTQ. I've been goldfishing the deck and it's fair to say that it is resilient and will still have game against control variants such as Jeskai and UW even in the latter parts of the game. Having access to green easily makes the deck competitive against Stony Silence in boarded games while having Walking Ballista around gives it the power to deal with a resolved Kataki, War's Wage with relative ease that the old Affinity variant doesn't have access to. Whoever thought of this deck is an absolute Magic wizard as I could say that it was well constructed to combat the current meta or probably any kind of it until a new archetype breaks out.

The Zero Crew

These are the cards in Modern that are seeing moderate to tons of action in top tier decks, and there's no denying that they are all powerful in their respective decks because of the versatility that they offer. We will be seeing more of these cards in the coming months as Modern is in a relatively healthy state right now as further cemented by WotC's decision to not ban any card during the most recent B&R announcement. Hangarback Walker will be a staple now so get your copies before it inevitably reaches the $20 zone soon. The window before that happens is not that big so go for it as soon as you can.

At the moment, your best bet to get copies of Hangarback Walker online is through Card Kingdom (selling it for $11.99) and multiple vendors at TCGPlayer (for anywhere between $10.35 to $13.31) for non-foil copies. StarCityGames is out of stock and should be back with supplies soon when all the other sites have exhausted their copies, and when they could refill at the near $20 range. Purchasing the MPS version is starting to look like a good move at the moment but that is something that I'm leaving you to decide on. This is another card that's very much safe to risk on if you're a betting man.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

A Practical Guide to Using Condition to Your Advantage

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Magic finance operates on multiple levels. The two most obvious are tied to playability and collectability.

As we all know, Magic tournaments play a big part in stimulating both growth and decline in terms of individual card values. When a new deck breaks out in Standard, we consistently observe the cards within the new deck rising in price. As more players are actively searching out the chase rares from that new deck, the demand for those cards rises and the price increases to meet demand.

When cards are better positioned in tournament formats, their values tends to rise; when they see decreased play; the prices plateau or decline.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thragtusk

The collectibility element of the game is significantly less rigidly defined in terms of what gets the needle moving for collectors. One fundamental reason that the collectible market is more difficult to predict and define is that there are so many different aspects to collecting and so many different ways to collect.

Playability is straightforward, as a card either is or isn't good enough in a defined Constructed format to send players to the LGS or TCGplayer to buy copies. On the other hand, players can and do collect whatever they enjoy, find interesting, or perceive as a good investment in the here and now.

For instance, I have a Legends Killer Bees collection that I've been working on for several years. It's up to about twenty copies of the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Killer Bees

Why do I have this? Killer Bees is one of my favorite cards of all time. When I was first getting into the game as a youngster, back before Fourth Edition or Chronicles, the local baseball card shop had a copy of the card in the case with a whopping $30.00 price tag. I thought the card was so cool. Giant bees with swords and shields and amazing flavor text?

I could have bought ten booster packs of Revised to add to my small collection, but I had to have these Bees. They were my favorite card and they went into all of my early decks. To give you some perspective on what a goober I was at ten years old, on a family trip to Virginia Beach, for my "souvenir," I had a local airbrush artist paint all three Killer Bees onto a light blue T-Shirt that the ten-year-old version of me wore when I played Magic cards.

My "Killer Bee Heavy Portfolio" wasn't a finance move so much as a nostalgia one. Anytime I'd see one in the case and had store credit to burn: "I'll take the Bees." Anytime I'd randomly see one in a stranger's binder: "I want the Bees." The card was stuck in $5 to $10 limbo for decades, so it wasn't a very costly investment of resources. Now they are sold out on SCG for $50.00. Sweet as honey.

The point is that "collectibility" is much more difficult to pin down because it can be a lot of different things to different people. It exists on a spectrum that ranges from the random individual who collects every Dragon or Angel in foil to the advanced financier who uses metrics to predict which Reserved List cards will gain the most value over a long period of time.

I Just Dropped In To See What Condition My Condition Was In

I've already touched on playability and collectibility as major factors that motivate MTG finance. Now, I'd like to bring condition into the equation and talk about some of the most useful ways to use condition to your advantage.

Obviously, the better the condition of a Magic card, the better the value. Given the option between a perfect condition Black Lotus or a chewed up one at the same price, it isn't much of a choice, right?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Better condition cards will almost always result in a higher asking price. The major exception to the rule comes in terms of alters and autographed cards. Technically, a card that has been painted on or signed is considered to have been damaged, but these "additions" can add value – but whether they actually do all depends upon the quality of the alter or signature.

A card signed by me? Probably losing value. However, a card signed by Richard Garfield will likely sell above the average selling price. The same is true of alters by noted artists and popular alterists within the community.

Misprints also fall into this category of cards. A card that has been damaged during production via off-center alignment, missing ink, or even a wacky impression from something on the press will not earn perfect gradings – but are rare, unique, and desirable with oddity collectors.

On a Spectrum from Gem 10 to Chaos Confetti

Let's talk strictly about card condition for a moment and how we can use that to our advantage in future acquisitions, trades, and sales.

There is an established framework for easily discussing card conditions: HP (Heavy Play), MP (Moderate Play), SP (Slight Play), and NM (Near Mint). If this is not something you are familiar with, there are literally dozens of articles and images around the web that explain how to grade cards, and you should consider familiarizing yourself with the rhetoric as it is a basic building block of MTG finance.

The common ground between these various indicators of condition is how much wear does your card have? Less wear equals better condition.

In most cases, common knowledge would assume that better condition is more desirable, since better-condition cards are understood to be more valuable, but I'm here to tell you that is not necessarily the case.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shocker

I mean, it's true they are more valuable in terms of the average asking price, but they are not necessarily the best cards to buy, sell, and trade for the savvy collector and investor.

I would argue that the far extremes – extremely minty and extremely played cards – are in fact the most desirable conditions to actually acquire because they have unique characteristics in the marketplace, as opposed to cards that are in the middle in terms of condition.

Let's start with minty collectible cards because those are obvious. There are many collectors who want the best possible versions and conditions. These people are collecting for the long game and are often looking to make gradeable sets. The market for gradeable cards has grown exponentially over the past few years from what it used to as more and more people look to capitalize on what looks to be a "forever deal" with the MTG Reserved List. The investment is essentially collected by a compact with WOTC's reprint policy, and so finding the best possible copies of these old, rare singles is a great move.

The other side of the spectrum is counterintuitive. If you are actually looking to move cards in the short term for smaller but more immediate profits, played cards should be your bread and butter. While a played version of a card will sell for less than an average copy of the same card, the lower price point itself has a ton of value, because it appeals to the greatest number of buyers. Also, while these cards can't be sold for as much as medium-condition copies, they can be acquired more cheaply, which makes the whole situation a wash. The provide a lower buy-in, and most importantly, a larger pool of potential buyers.

Imagine you are at a Grand Prix and there are 12 different dealer booths. Each dealer has between one and ten copies of The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale for sale. Which copy is most likely to sell first? The answer: whichever one has the cheapest price tag.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Most collectors don't simply put their cards into hard-shell cases and into a safe deposit box. Most potential buyers want to use the card for something – a tournament deck, a cube, a battle box, or a Commander deck – but they understand that purchase is also an investment for down the road as well.

If this is the case, would you rather spend $50 on a card or $70 for a better condition copy of the same card? Keep in mind that you are planning on playing with the card. I understand savvy buyers will say, "Well, it would depend upon how much better condition the card is for the $20.00." Sure, 100-percent true. There is such a thing as finding a "better deal." However, assuming each card is priced appropriately for the condition, there will always be a larger market for cheaper copies than more expensive copies.

The same can be said for selling online. The cheapest copy is typically the easiest to sell. Duh. Poor condition cards also have the advantage of being great "player copies" of expensive old cards. Why would I, or anybody else, want to pay a significant premium for condition, when we intend to put the card into a deck, shuffle it, and continue to degrade the condition over time?

I use this information frequently when I'm buying, selling, and trading. I love picking up those HP Reserved List cards at HP market price, holding them for three or four months, and then easily flipping them online once they have gained value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Abyss

It is also very useful to use above-average-condition cards to your benefit as well. If I have store credit (and they don't have any Killer Bees for sale), I'm typically going to want to spend that store credit on a Reserved List card of some sort. Most stores, and traders for that matter, simply snap open TCGplayer, look at the average price, and use that as the asking price for the card.

Well, we know that there is a premium for high-condition quality on Old School Cards that is derived from collectors and set builders. One of the best values on the open market is when you find a collectible card that has low playability but is in great condition. Often retailers will mark these types of cards according to the average retail value of the card, which includes worse condition copies, and you can find some absolutely savage deals if you keep your eyes peeled.

If that Purelace is in gradable mint condition and is marked at an averaged price, the copy you pick up can easily retail for more than double your investment!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Purelace

Everything gravitates toward the middle when it comes to condition, but there is major value hidden on the extremes if you are a savvy consumer or retailer. In short, when it comes to collectible TCGs, chewed cards are great and pristine cards are gold mines.

Return to the PPTQ Grind: Week 4

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Another week, another failures to qualify. Yes, plural. Spoiler alert: I didn't win either PPTQ last weekend. Fortunately, there are still plenty of chances ahead. And more opportunities to find novel introductions for this series.

In lighter news, Spirits had a very good weekend. The fact that SCG Baltimore was won by UW Spirits while Bant did well in Prague offers little metagame insight, as the decks are mostly identical. The primary distinction is whether you want a better control (UW) or midrange (Bant) matchup. That said, I hope Ondrej Strasky writes about his deck soon. Seeing Aether Vial and Collected Company in the same deck gives me heartburn from the tension.

The Decks

Despite being a two-PPTQ weekend, I intended to play the same deck for both events. Partially, I was hoping to only play one event; I was also feeling pretty good about my deck. Spirits has outperformed my expectations and all my other decks in testing and actual games except against Tron, where Storm reigned supreme. While I did play Spirits for both events, I ended up altering my deck between events.

Saturday

UW Spirits, David Ernenwein (PPTQ Deck)

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Rattlechains
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Supreme Phantom
2 Remorseful Cleric
2 Phantasmal Image
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
2 Militia Bugler
1 Reflector Mage

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Seachrome Coast
3 Cavern of Souls
3 Hallowed Fountain
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Plains
1 Island
1 Moorland Haunt

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
3 Negate
2 Rest in Peace
2 Eidolon of Rhetoric
2 Settle the Wreckage
1 Leonin Relic-Warder
1 Worship
1 Blessed Alliance

I took the exact same 75 from last week to Black Gold on Saturday. I had some concerns, but I didn't actually see any reason to deviate from the plan that had previously worked. Militia Bugler was fine, but couldn't save me in the discard-heavy matchups. I'm not sure what can except for Leyline of Sanctity, and targeted discard is no longer prevalent enough to justify that call. Spirits works by ambushing opponents with cards in hand, and being forced to dump cards onto the board kills the actual power of the deck. In that situation, Spirits is bad Merfolk.

Some of my concerns played out over the course of the tournament and prompted me to make changes for Sunday. Tron is not a good matchup. As with most aggro decks, Spirits is pretty cold to a resolved Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Even when Ugin isn't in the picture, it can be very hard to get enough of a clock together to beat Wurmcoil Engine or Worldbreaker. I was also a little interaction-light and lacked mid-game punch and recovery.

Sunday

After some deliberation, I decided to abandon my Bugler plan. The kinds of decks where Bugler was actively good (Jund-esque attrition) were pretty rare. It was fine in general, but never shined, and wasn't what I wanted to be doing in a number of matchups. Infect has been so elusive, and I was beating Humans and Eldrazi so handily, that Reflector Mage also proved unnecessary. Losing Bugler also meant that Leonin Relic-Warder had to go. There wasn't much need for that effect anyway. The question was what the replacements would be.

I rebuilt my deck to close the hole that was my Tron matchup. Of the creatures available, Vendilion Clique seemed best, since it could remove the otherwise unbeatable Ugin from an opponent's hand. As a bonus, Clique also prevents Terminus being miracled. Kira was a nod to attrition decks.

UW Spirits, David Ernenwein (PPTQ Deck, Quarterfinals)

Creatures

4 Rattlechains
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Supreme Phantom
2 Remorseful Cleric
2 Phantasmal Image
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Seachrome Coast
3 Cavern of Souls
3 Hallowed Fountain
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Plains
1 Island
1 Moorland Haunt

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
2 Negate
2 Rest in Peace
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
2 Settle the Wreckage
2 Damping Sphere
1 Worship
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Sword of Light and Shadow

I included Damping Sphere in the sideboard in place of some anti-combo cards. It's more for Tron than combo, but it does demand an answer from everything. I don't run Unified Will anymore because I've run into too many awkward situations where I needed a counter early and had no creatures. The Sword was for attrition matchups and for lifegain against Burn. I've seen other players using it for that exact purpose successfully, and that's another hole I needed to fill.

The Tournaments

This weekend's offerings were at my LGS, Black Gold, and then the store from my pre-Vegas report. As both are excellent shops with reliable climate control and more than enough space, the stores were certain to be absolutely packed. And they were. Both tournaments ended up being six-round ordeals, with 54 players on Saturday and 63 on Sunday.

Scouting at Black Gold is pointless. The shop has a wide metagame where everything is liable to show up. I know what the other regulars play, but that never indicates the overall metagame, and this PPTQ was no exception. Of course, I may only think this because I'm there so often. The weighted fields I've seen elsewhere may be perfectly normal for those stores. Case in point, I saw a lot of control and combo at the Sunday PPTQ, which may have just been how that store rolls, or may be particular to that specific tournament.

Saturday

The tournament started auspiciously enough as I pair against Living End, an exceptional matchup for Spirits. Between Spell Queller and Mausoleum Wanderer, it's pretty unlikely Living End resolves, and with Remorseful Cleric, I can make End work for me. My cockiness about the matchup and ensuing misplays would have cost me game 2 had my opponent drawn better.

Round 2 is against Hollow One, and game 1 I'm never really in it. My draw isn't great, and he tears through his deck with looting effects. Game 2 I have the answers I need and it's fairly easy for me. Game 3 my opening hand has Rest in Peace, Eidolon of Rhetoric, and Settle the Wreckage, presenting a nearly ideal curve. However, those are the only actual spells I see the whole game. I stabilize at 9 life, leave him with no board, and just can't kill my opponent because I only draw irrelevant lands and Vials. I die to triple Bolt.

Round 3 is against BW Planeswalkers. This matchup is almost un-winnable for me between the pile of discard, removal, and token makers, and I'm easily crushed in two games. My opponent gets himself really low playing shocklands and Thoughtseize, but with Liliana of the Last Hope around, I can't get anything going. I'm almost certainly eliminated from Top 8, but not from prizes, so I stay.

My round 4 opponent never shows. Yeah, free win? Anyway, round 5 is against HollowVine, which is apparently better against graveyard hate at cost of explosiveness. In any case, game 1 is pretty easy for me, as I have time to remove his big creatures, build a Spirit wall, and then win in two swings. I feel that the weirdness of his deck costs me game 2. I lose by the skin of my teeth and I think it's because I misidentify Hollow One as the threat when I really needed to Path a then-tiny Lotleth Troll. I'm not sure though, because it was so close, the extra damage from the One early may have killed me. Game three he's stuck on one land and I have Rest in Peace.

Round 6 is against Mono-Green Tron, and games 1 and 3 he has Ugin and I can't counter it. Game 2 is an easy win when I Quarter him off Tron twice.

3-3 is not the record I was looking for on my home turf. The Top 8 consisted of two Hollow One decks, mono-Green Tron, Ad Nauseam, Burn, Jeskai Control, Mardu Pyromancer, and some flavor of Spirits.

Sunday

This tournament begins far worse: my Bridgevine opponent kicks things off with Looting discarding Vengevine and Bridge from Below followed by two Endless Ones for Zombies and an angry plant. Game 2 I Cleric his opening Bridge and Settle his board. Game 3 he has turn one Vine but no follow up or second land, while I have turn two Rest followed by lords for the win.

Round 2 is against Storm. Game 1 I have multiple Wanders, Supreme Phantom, and Cleric. He fizzles through the disruption. Game 2 I'm all in on Rest being good, but he has 12 goblins on turn three. Game 3 he mulligans, and I Quell his Pieces, so he never has the chance to go off. Damping Sphere makes the math more complicated, but he never had the spells to win in the first place.

For round 3, my opponent mulligans on the draw, thinks awhile, keeps, and scrys bottom. The only game action he takes is discarding Bloodghast to hand size turn two. He scoops the turn after, apparently never finding a land. I assume it's a graveyard deck and board accordingly. It is Hollow One, but his draw is pretty clunky, and he Burning Inquiries away most of his removal. After the match he told me that his game 1 hand was Street Wraith, Faithless Looting, and two Ones. Any red source and that hand is insane. Given that Hollow One is a high-variance deck, I think it's a reasonable keep. You don't play that deck to play safe Magic.

Round 4 is against Humans, and it's an easy win for me in two games. I didn't really need my sideboard cards. I could have lost because of some loose play game 2, but my opponent didn't have the cards to punish me. At end of round, there are four undefeated players, so we double-draw into Top 8. Doing so pushes me down to 8th place.

Top 8

Once again, there are two Hollow One decks in Top 8, along with Mardu Pyromancer featuring Death's Shadow, Jeskai Control, UW Control, Ironworks, myself, and one other player who doesn't actually stay because we split the prize payout. Being a low seed is particularly unfortunate for me because top seed is the Ironworks player. His list is odd in that he runs the Thopter-Sword combo maindeck as an alternate win condition, which is really bad for me.

I lose in two games, the first because I lack Queller and the second because I decide to Quell his bait Thopter Foundry instead of hold it for a turn to get the Scrap Trawler he was going to Buried Ruin back. My thinking there is that with Queller on board, if I draw any Spirit or even Moorland Haunt, I will have enough Wanderer triggers to kill that turn while he's tapped out. I draw a useless land and proceed to lose.

Meanwhile, the control decks were facing off. When I left the site about fifteen minutes after my loss, they were still playing game 1, both at around 20 life with about a third of their respective libraries left. Legends say they remain locked in an eternal control mirror, never to finish, to this very day. The Drawing Jacemen.

Lessons Learned

My tendency to take ultra-safe lines has cost me plenty of games, to the point that testing partners have called me out. Therefore, I've been taking the Romantic Game Theory approach to try and just win. I have been winning more games that I probably shouldn't on paper, but that may not be the strategy working out: I play very fast, and coupling that with looser lines really throws opponents off. However, I've also been losing more close games.

I played really loose all weekend; even sloppily. I threw a lot of value away in the games where I knew I was heavily favored, and probably in the other games as well. Also, in the quarterfinals I took the line to win right away, when had I waited, my opponent was so resource-depleted that I was going to win the following turn anyway as long as Trawler didn't hit the board. I need to slow down and think harder about my lines. I don't want to go back to being overly passive, but swinging between extremes isn't good either.

On the Deck

I'm not sure what to think about my changes from Saturday to Sunday. I never drew Clique, though there were a number of matchups where it would have been better than Bugler or Reflector Mage. The only time I played Kira was against Humans, and she was better than Mage or Bugler in that situation since my opponent's good creatures were already gone and I needed to get a clock going. Having protection from their Reflector Mages was theoretically good, but didn't actually come up.

Damping Sphere was rather mediocre, but that's what I expected against combo decks. It was the final nail against Storm, but even Negate would have worked. Frankly, Negate would have been better against Ironworks. If I find superior Tron tech, I'll be replacing Sphere.

Onward to Victory?

There's just one PPTQ next week, and I hope it will be my last. Best of luck to everyone out there still grinding.

Avatar photo

David Ernenwein

David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.

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QS Cast #105: The KIP Cast

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Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • QS Insider and Mod KIP joins the Cast!
  • Insider Questions
  • High End/Old School
  • Interests
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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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QS Cast #104: Angelo Redux and WOTC Direct

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Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Magic.cards owner Angelo (PT Floor Reporter) and Insider, joins the Cast!
  • WOTC Direct Changes
  • Interests - Cast Picks - New segment for Insider picks!
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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Unlocked: Focused on the Positives

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It’s honesty time: I am a bit burnt out by Magic’s rendition of social media lately. Magic players are notorious for complaining, but it seems like the disgruntled dial was turned to eleven these past few weeks. Whether it be about hall of fame voting, alleged cheaters, counterfeits, Nexus of Fate, or an array of other thorns in people’s sides, there’s always something to complain about.

This week I’m bucking that trend. I’m going to share a couple glimmers of optimism. In some cases I’ll provide counter-arguments to the topics mentioned above. In other cases I’ll simply share some reasons to be optimistic. Perhaps this will fly in the face of all the negative folks out there so we know there is at least one pocket of positivity in the corner of the MTG universe.

Counterfeits = Higher Prices

Let’s start with a thought experiment—I recognize this viewpoint will be controversial so I ask you to put aside your biases to merely consider my line of reasoning.

Imagine a world where counterfeits are more prevalent. They are still detectable by hands-on evaluation, but they start to appear in TCGplayer and eBay orders a little more frequently. What would you do in this world?

For me, I’d probably cut back on shopping from peer-to-peer websites. I would restrict my buying on eBay and TCGplayer to shops with significant feedback numbers only. I would probably do more purchasing at major vendors such as Card Kingdom and Star City Games, and I would definitely step up my trade-in action with ABUGames to take advantage of their sweet trade credit numbers. This kind of approach would ensure my purchased cards are scrutinized by a major vendor—one who will back the authenticity of their cards and would provide terrific customer service should a counterfeit be sold through their site.

Others would likely follow suit. This would result in greater demand for cards at major retailers. You think retail prices are a lot higher than “market price” today? We could see significant increases in that gap. A card like Liliana of the Veil has a market price today of around $85-$90 and Star City Games has NM copies listed at $90. This isn’t a large differential at all. But if counterfeits became a major concern, we could see TCGplayer prices listed at $75-$80 and SCG up in the $100-$110 range. There’s a premium to be paid to be guaranteed that authenticity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

Then as retailers sell their copies, they’ll need to up buylist prices. As long as you know your copies are legitimate, you will be able to get more for them from a buylist. This, in turn, could lead to a rise in your collection’s value.

I’m not saying counterfeits are good for the market. Obviously it’s problematic. But as long as they don’t completely overrun the market—or as long as they remain detectable as they are today—then an influx of counterfeit cards could cause your collection’s value to increase as demand for guaranteed authenticity increases. Just some positive food for thought.

Summer Slowdown = Buyers’ Market

Is it just me or has MTG Stocks shown fewer and fewer gainers lately? I checked this morning and the list of cards that rose by at least $1 and 2% was minimal. Also, I’m seeing the same cards show up time and again; I can’t count how many times The Wretched has been on this list, even though I’m pretty sure its price has been stagnant for months now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Wretched

The reality is prices have dipped back down a bit. This is evidenced by Card Kingdom’s recent pullback in buylist numbers on their site. Remember when they had practically every Revised dual land on their hotlist because they were virtually sold out of all of them? Now buy prices are much lower and there are ample copies available for purchase. Not only that, but I believe prices have pulled back a bit—there are affordable copies if you’re okay settling for heavily played condition.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tundra

Does this signify the end of MTG finance? Hardly. In fact, I’d argue this is a tremendous positive for the hobby. It means people who at one point felt they were priced out of Legacy have another chance at picking up the cards they need for their deck. What’s more, many other buylist prices have stuck at a higher number, meaning players can trade their profitable picks into dual lands and the like. I loved seeing Legacy at the most recent Pro Tour, and the fact that Legacy cards aren’t skyrocketing further tells me it’s safe for Wizards to do it again. Let’s hope it happens sooner than later.

In the meantime, this is a great time to be buying cards. Take advantage of the sell-offs as people cash out this summer. Acquire strategically using those eBay coupons and TCGplayer kickback deals. If dual lands aren’t your thing, pay attention to other areas that may have softer demand. Remember when Gaea's Cradle was $500 and everyone was fed up with Reserved List speculation? Now there are HP copies selling for under $300—still not cheap, but perhaps just affordable enough for Commander players looking to step up their game. It’s also worth noting there are now 106 sellers of the card on TCGplayer, meaning supply has returned to the market in full-force. No more shortages is a good thing!

Nexus of Fate = Standard Boon

Remember when Nexus of Fate ruined Standard forever? Yeah, me neither. I’ll admit it was awkward when players at the Pro Tour couldn’t find copies of this Buy-a-Box promo on-site for their decks. But barring that singular instance, what kind of damage has Nexus of Fate really done? I’d argue it has done more good than harm!

For example, I think it’s actually healthy to have some number of valuable cards in Standard. I’m not advocating we go back to the days of $100 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Clearly a triple-figured price tag is problematic for Magic’s most prevalent format. But having a few $20 cards and even one $30 card makes the collectible and trading side of the game interesting.

Think about it: when every card is a few bucks and decks are dirt cheap, the game loses a bit of its luster. The play aspect may be fine, but there is a collectible and trading component that suffers in such an environment. What’s more, having expensive cards fluctuate in price creates a dynamic that rewards savvy speculators—not that we need to reward this population, but it provides another avenue of demand for cards, which is always a good thing.

I’ve heard others joke that Wizards of the Coast could include $20 bills within booster packs and players would complain about how they’re folded. This notion is not lost on me. In fact, Wizards of the Coast essentially did just that! They gave players $20 bills for buying a booster box of Core 2019. Guess what? People complained. Frankly, I think that’s a shame because providing a guaranteed $20 card with a box removes some of the variance when cracking sealed product. The downside risk is limited when there’s a guarantee included. Personally, I would purchase more product if such guarantees were maintained—not less.

Overall, I applaud Wizards for Nexus of Fate because it motivates LGS sales, reduces “feel-bads” when cracking sealed product, and provides a little extra juice to MTG finance. The only people who don’t win in this situation are the players who need a playset within a few weeks of the set’s launch, when supply is artificially depressed. This is a small population, and I believe there are ways Wizards can avoid this scenario in the future to ensure even this group of individuals doesn’t suffer from what ended up to be a brilliant idea.

By the way…Nexus of Fate is under $20 now and there are about 200 copies for sale on TCGplayer alone. I don’t think we have to worry about it anymore.

Wrapping It Up

I want to conclude this week’s article with a bit of irony. When I hop on social media and see viral complaints about Magic, it tends to get me down. The melancholic tone reminds me of how poisonous the internet can really be (aside: this is why I’ve gravitated more toward the Old School community lately).

But rather than feel pessimistically about the community’s negativity, I can distort my interpretation in a way that makes even the complaints appear positive. You see, one reason people are so vocal about their unhappiness with these decisions is because they are all so passionate about the game itself! If people were feeling disconnected from the game, they frankly wouldn’t care enough to share their opinions. Instead, the opposite is true. The game of Magic is so intertwined with people’s lives that they feel compelled to voice their concerns adamantly on social media. In a way, the volume of these complaints is a contrary indicator: the more complaints, the healthier Magic is as a game.

So I’m going to wrap up with a bout of optimism. We already heard from Hasbro’s latest earnings report that Magic is back to growth after a couple speed bumps. And while prices are softening this summer, I see plenty of strength in our future once the fall arrives. I’ll remain optimistic, keep focused on strategic acquisitions for my collection, and consolidate as I see new opportunities arise.

Until then, let’s try to stay focused on the positive because we can all agree on one thing: this game is pretty amazing.

Sigbits

  • Okay, I know I just wrote about ABUGames’s aggressive store credit numbers, but some cards have gotten even wackier lately! For example, numbers on Unlimited Power shot up even more than they were just last week! Now a played Unlimited Mox Ruby can fetch you $2660 in store credit! Played condition Time Walks will fetch you $2565 in credit. This is unprecedented. Guess what: I don’t think we’ve seen the peak yet for 2018.
  • Speaking of Unlimited, Card Kingdom continues to gradually up their prices on Unlimited. They’ve been short on stock of the most in-demand cards from this set, and they’re finally adjusting accordingly. In addition to Power, they’ve upped buy prices on Chaos Orb ($900), Savannah Lions ($120), Word of Command ($120), Howling Mine ($108), etc., etc. The list goes on.
  • Here’s something I haven’t mentioned in a long time: Star City Games’s buylist! They actually upped some of their Old School buy prices, and in a few cases they are actually best in class. Card Kingdom cooled off on The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale lately, but Star City is offering a best-in-class $2250 for Near Mint copies. Beware, though, their played prices drop off steeply from there.

Daily Stock Watch – Hardened Scales

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new week of the Daily Stock Watch! Another big Grand Prix has passed us by and it certainly shook the Modern world to its very core. The Hardened Modular deck won the whole thing and it was something that certainly didn't surprise everyone who knew it was performing very well in MTGO. And just like the good old times, the best deck produced the best opportunity for its main cards to gain value financially. I wanted to write about this card last week and missed out on it but nonetheless, I think it's still good to talk about it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hardened Scales

Lauri Pispa is an accomplished Magic player who did his homework for Grand Prix Prague by outlasting almost 2,000 other mages. His deck of choice is something that has been respected in the online world before this event but is something that hasn't proven anything on paper. This win cements the status of Hardened Modular as the next tier one deck that may have just retired its older counterpart in the process. At the forefront of this archetype is Hardened Scales which has gone back up to $3.19 as of writing, and is the vital cog of the deck that allows it to go broken consistently on certain draws. With a plethora of creatures that would love the extra counters, the miniature creatures of the deck are becoming bigger and meaning with Hardened Scales, Animation Module, and Throne of Geth doing most of the heavy lifting in the same sense that Thalia's Lieutenant has been getting it done for Humans.

Hardened Modular by Lauri Pispa

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Arcbound Worker
4 Hangarback Walker
4 Steel Overseer
4 Walking Ballista

Other Spells

2 Animation Module
1 Evolutionary Leap
4 Hardened Scales
4 Mox Opal
2 Throne of Geth
3 Welding Jar
4 Ancient Stirrings

Lands

1 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
6 Forest
2 Horizon Canopy
4 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Pendelhaven
1 Phyrexia's Core
1 Ruins of Oran-Rief

Sideboard

4 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Karn, Scion of Urza
4 Nature's Claim
2 Surgical Extraction

I've asked friends who are playing Affinity if they'd go with this version versus the old one and almost all of them said yes. When pressed to answer what's the difference maker, it always goes down to the absurd power levels that even a vanilla-looking creature like Arcbound Worker could get to because of Hardened Scales. It could also beat you in different ways and abuse the counters it could get with the presence of BR Bridgevine's enablers Hangarback Walker and Walking Ballista. But none of these gets going without Hardened Scales as it would seem like you're playing against a slower version of OG Affinity if it's not around. Needless to say, the best draws of this deck would be those with our featured card at the helm of things so it really deserves the price raise that it's commanding right now.

Going Obsolete

The new deck looked so different from the stock list that it hardly resembled that annoying Arcbound Ravager-powered deck as we know it. The holdovers in the list are mostly the rare cards that Affinity is known for and surprisingly omits Etched Champion which has been the hardest creature to deal with in combat-based matchups. The ability to go wide in different directions sets this deck apart from other aggro lists and puts it on par with Humans as far as power level is concerned. It should be around for a while and we shouldn't miss out on the opportunity to squeeze profit out of Hardened Scales while it's hot.

At the moment, StarCityGames, Card Kingdom, and ChannelFireball are all out of stock of Hardened Scales from Khans of Tarkir. SCG has quite a number of it from Commander Anthology Volume II and it should be a good pick up right now if you are into playing the deck. I remember a lot of KTK packs being opened back in the day because of fetches, so I'm quite sure that a number of Hardened Scales are hiding in player's bins somewhere. I personally have more than 20 copies and I'd be glad to move it out at $5 and I suggest that you do the same. A card that's crucial to a very good deck will have a certain ceiling and I'm guessing that this is it for this card.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: QS Cast Infographics – August 2018 Graphics

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Hello, Insiders, and welcome to the August 2018 Edition of the QS Cast Tracker Infographics! Every month we take a look at how Chaz’s and Tarkan’s picks have fared since they mentioned them on a podcast episode. For convenience, we only keep track of six months worth of picks and check the price changes after 30, 60 and 90 days. Today’s column will look at all cards selected between March 14th, 2018 and July 12th, 2018.

Without further ado, here are the Infographics, as always courtesy of our very own Diego Fumagalli (Visualizing Magic):

As a reminder, the dollar amounts mentioned in these graphics are calculated based on the total amount gained or lost when purchasing a playset of a card picked by either caster at the time it was mentioned on cast, then “cashing in” on that playset after 30/60/90 days. With that said, let’s analyze the numbers shown above in further details.

Our casters did very well again since we last checked on their numbers. Their usual strategy are still prominently showing: Chaz is in it for the quick turnaround, with a massive return of $270 over 32 playsets for a total buy-in of just shy of $790 (+34% gains) in the first 30 days; Tarkan, on the other hand, goes for the long game, earning slightly more than $310 over 27 playsets for a buy-in of $813 and change (+38% gains) after 90 days. Talk about your Aggro vs. Midrange matchup!

Even if one was to nitpick and look into the losing specs with more details, here are the tallies:

The total value lost by the picks (counting them as playsets) is not that horrible, especially when you consider how many cards Chaz and Tarkan mention during a cast. One thing to consider too, is that a large fraction of these losses come from Standard picks (Steel Leaf Champion, Mox Amber, History of Benalia...). All in all, the QS casters have not needed to hit a homerun with every card: with a consistent 25-30% of their picks gaining 50% or more in value, there is enough room for them to take a chance on a couple of cards here and there.

Speaking of hitting homeruns and metagame changes, boy did Tarkan hit it out of the park with Krark-Clan Ironworks:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Krark-Clan Ironworks

Tarkan called it on March 23, 2018, when it retailed for $7.99 (non-foil)/$21.80 (foil) and has since skyrocketed to $20.00 (non-foil)/$55.60 (foil) at the time of this writing. The deck it is featured in is clearly top tier in Modern now, and the card has avoided both a reprint and the banhammer from this past Monday (August 20th) announcement. With the Modern PPTQ season upon us, don't be surprised if it shoots up again, even for lesser conditions (MP-HP). By itself, the card is responsible for over 60% of Tarkan's 90-day gains: combining foil and non-foil playset, it makes $192.4 out of the $308.16 earned. Other big winners for Tarkan are the Theros God Erebos, God of the Dead and the EDH rising star Mizzix of the Izmagnus.

Chaz is by no means playing second fiddle and has two picks with superb returns (other than Thelon of Havenwood that was discussed last time):

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brightling

There was an error retrieving a chart for Council's Judgment

Recent bannings in Legacy have pushed the Death & Taxes archetype to the forefront of the format, so it is not that surprising to see the prices of two of its most recent additions spike. Brightling alone more than quadrupled in price, from $4.99 at the time Chaz picked it (June 28th) to a retail price of over $23 a month later. Two weeks later, he mentioned Council's Judgment which has since doubled up from $11.5 to $22.5 30 days later.

All in all, it has yet again been a solid couple of months for the QS Cast, and the coming weeks should only reinforce what the data has shown so far: more and more sets are being designed with EDH and Eternal formats in mind (and even Brawl as of Dominaria), so these are the trends you should be following. Keeping an eye on the MTGO lists shared on the Mothership can help to zero in on new, format altering strategies like Throne of Geth did in Modern and Legacy. Alternatively, doing some research on what is rising in popularity on EDHrec allows you to find hidden gems, for example like Lim-Dûl's Vault which benefits from new printings like Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow in Commander 18.

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