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Insider: Aether Revolt Top 10!

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Here we go again! It’s Top 10 time. I hope you’re ready for a revolt!

What exactly are we revolting from, though? I’ll admit, maybe I missed something from the lore, but there doesn’t seem to be much to cause a revolt on Kaladesh. The first set of the block was just about the happiest set we’ve ever had. If there was a villain, I’m not sure who it was, so they couldn’t have been that bad – right?

The set seemed like, "Hey, let’s all get together and make cool gadgets." This resulted in some cool new cards for us and some interesting new twists like with vehicles. Aether Revolt seems to be more of the same. There are lots of cool things going on with this set. Probably the most interesting part about it is how it interacts with older cards. Those could be cards from Kaladesh or prior, but there are a ton of nuanced interactions based on cards from this set. I think these interactions are what I’m the most excited about in the set so far.

Honorable Mention

Ajani Unyielding Image result for new ajani planeswalker deck

We’ve had many different versions of Ajani so far, and most of them have been tournament staples. Ajani Goldmane started us out pairing well with tokens to overwhelm the opponent quickly. Ajani Vengeant was almost the exact opposite, preferring a more controlling path to victory, but many consider him to be one of the best. Even Ajani, Caller of the Pride and Ajani, Mentor of Heroes served us well in aggressive strategies during their time in Standard. Ajani Steadfast was one of the least playable of the variants and it still functioned well in some situations, as well as holding the second highest price point to Ajani, Mentor of Heroes.

What’s up with these two new Ajanis, though? Both are six mana? I spoke at length about these two cards in an article a couple weeks ago, but my opinion hasn’t changed much since then. Even with the Standard bannings (crazy, right?), I’m not sure there’s room in Standard for these two six-mana 'walkers that don’t add threats to the board. Ajani Unyielding can at least kill a guy, but his ultimate only fits well if you have a bunch of dudes in play. Ajani, Valiant Protector can kill your opponent with his ultimate, so that seems better, but neither of these two six-mana ‘walkers is anywhere near the top of my list of cards to work on. I’m very disappointed with these two new versions of my favorite planeswalker.

Spire of Industry
Spire of Industry seems like a potential candidate for Affinity as well as other artifact-based decks. It’s unclear how much impact it will have, but I like its potential.

Gonti’s Aether Heart

Maybe I missed one here by putting this in the Honorable Mention section, but I honestly think that this artifact will get cut from the Aetherworks Marvel decks in favor of more streamlined cards. Extra turns are great, but this seems like a win-more card rather than one that makes my combo more consistent.

Greenbelt Rampager

Man, I want to love Greenbelt Rampager so much. It reminds me of one of my first loves, Rogue Elephant. Even if you play this in the midgame, the body should be good enough to fight well for you. I think this has a home right away in the Energy Aggro deck, but I’m not sure what they would cut for it, so I stuck it in this section. Solid card, though.

Rishkar, Peema Renegade

There is a lot of potential for the terribly named Rishkar, Peema Renegade. Are they running out of names or something? Peema? Rishkar was bad enough but Peema? Come on now. Ranting about the name aside, I think ramping with this guy sounds sweet. What do we want to ramp to, though? Is this even the best way to ramp? I like this creature and I think there could be something here using this as a build-around-me type of card.

And now, onto the Top 10!

10. Heart of Kiran

Heart of Kiran

Last time around, I may have underestimated the power of vehicles, but this time I think I pegged Heart of Kiran correctly. In my mind, much of this vehicle's power level depended on its pairing with Smuggler's Copter to form the WR Vehicles dynamic duo. I figured that this artifact’s home would be better suited in an aggressive deck than a midrange strategy.

How good is the ability to pilot it with a loyalty counter from a planeswalker you have on the battlefield? Obviously having this option is a huge boon, but do we really want to be removing counters from our planeswalkers in order to make this into a guy? That’s the main question I have right now about this 4/4 flyer.

I want to try this card out in a couple of different places, and I think it will impact our new Standard format, but I don’t know the best fit for the card. It’s weird to think of Heart of Kiran as a flying ship, but it’ll be interesting to see whether we fly over our opponents with this 4/4 or not.

Financial Implications

Financially, I think we have some room for the price to decrease a bit here. Double digits is fine for this card, but I doubt it will have the same ever-present impact permeating many of the top decks in the format as Smuggler’s Copter did. I think the $10 range seems more likely than the $20-plus price tag it currently holds. It has already gone up in preorder price, largely due to Copter’s ban, though.

9. Tezzeret the Schemer // Tezzeret, Master of Metal

Tezzeret the Schemer Image result for tezzeret master of metal

Tezzeret, the master of artifacts, is back and ready to create new decks in the metagame. Just like with Ajani’s new variants, I think Tezzeret has taken a huge step down in power level. Tezzeret the Schemer ramps you, kills a small guy, and then makes one of your artifacts a 5/5 each turn. These are all decent abilities, but none of them seem impactful enough for me to want this card in a deck. Maybe his high starting loyalty and synergy with artifact decks will be enough to get him some playing time, but I think he’s going to warm the bench. We’ll see, though.

Tezzeret, Master of Metal seems like the better of the two cards. Depending on what an artifact deck looks like in Standard, utilizing a -3 that drains your opponent for a ton of life could be deadly. Will this deck come together and be good enough to compete? That I’m not sure of just yet, but I think Tezzeret mastering metal is more likely than him sitting around scheming all day. Tezzeret’s schemes seem weak, but the metal he’s creating looks worthy.

Financial Implications

If there is an actual deck for the Master of Metal, his price will explode and all those planeswalker decks will sell out. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge and get a copy or two so you can be ready to list them if they surge in price. Unless I’m missing something, or Tezzeret the Schemer is one of those cards you have to play to see how good it is, I think he will fall below $10 within the first week or two of release.

8. Heroic Intervention

Heroic Intervention

"Permanents you control gain hexproof and indestructible until end of turn" is a powerful line of text from Heroic Intervention. I think this two-mana instant has tons of potential in multiple formats. It seems like Wizards is constantly thinking of new ways to create fast linear aggressive strategies. Whether it’s Bogles, Infect, or just GR Energy Aggro, there is always a deck that wants to protect its creatures with a card like this. I could even see this getting some Modern slots in the aforementioned decks.

Financial Implications

Pricewise, it doesn’t get much better than under $2. If this card falls to bulk status, I’ll be intervening to grab a couple play sets. I doubt there is much growth potential, but long term its price seems solid. Foils will be a higher multiplier if it starts seeing play in Commander or Modern or both.

7. Baral, Chief of Compliance

Baral, Chief of Compliance

Baral, Chief of Compliance screams combo card to me. It’s like a Goblin Electromancer with additional potential upside. I think this creature could show up in a couple places. Obviously it would be good in Storm, the same way Electromancer is, but I think he could also be great in a normal control deck as a blocker, cost reducer, and card filterer. This idea of how to play him fits well with Torrential Gearhulk as well.

Financial Implications

Already at $5, I think Baral is more likely to go down than up, but if he’s part of a tier-one deck then there’s a little room for growth. The foil, though – wow. I’ll bet if you didn’t know his foil was $25 that you’d never have guessed it was that high. I’d believe $10. Even $15 seems reasonable, but $25 – wow, that blew me away.

6. Yahenni’s Expertise

Yahenni’s Expertise
I’ll admit that I’m not sure this is the right time for Yahenni's Expertise in Standard. What aggressive deck are you targeting with this card? As of right now, -3/-3 to all creatures wouldn’t be very good against the metagame, but by banning three cards, I think a ton more creative space has just opened up in Standard. We really have no idea what’s going to happen when these cards come out, but a four-mana sweeper is something we typically look for in control decks. I might rather pay an extra mana and Fumigate them instead, but sweepers will always be a crucial component of control strategies.

The -3/-3 level may or may not seem broken depending on what the rest of the metagame looks like. This rate could be practically the same as Wrath of God, but it could also be like trying to cast Languish against Siege Rhino and Tasigur, the Golden Fang. Sometimes the free three-mana-or-less spell option might go unused as well, but having the option to double up on spells sometimes is great, especially since you get to cast it after the -3/-3 resolves, so you can follow up with your own creature.

Financial Implications

Preorders seems to indicate that Yahenni’s Expertise will be decent as well, since it’s sitting around $6 right now. The immediate amount of play this sorcery sees will likely determine its initial price trajectory. If a deck utilizes it, there’s some upside, but otherwise, it’ll drop down to $2 or $3 quickly.

5. Metalic Mimic

Metallic Mimic
Metalic Mimic is one of the most interesting and powerful cards in the set. Not only is it generically powerful in combination with any creature type, but it also combos with Animation Module to create a pseudo-Sword of the Meek-plus-Thopter Foundry interaction.

Financial Implications

A lord like this usually fetches roughly the $4 this is currently at. I’d expect this card to follow a similar price trajectory to that of Adaptive Automaton. They are similar cards that will be used for similar purposes. The only difference is that Mimic might be the core of a Standard deck, while Automaton is just casual gold. Both have strong low-end price potential with bigger upsides with their foil printings.

4. Paradox Engine

Paradox Engine
Paradox Engine immediately screams broken combo to me. You can technically combine it with Greenbelt Rampager, Servant of the Conduit, and Aetherflux Reservoir, but I think that’s the least threatening combo this card will have available to it. One problem with this artifact is that there are so many possibilities that seem available, it may be hard to nail down which ones are the best to combo with it.

Financial Implications

Unsurprisingly, the foil of this card is over $20. I could definitely see that going up as well once players start designing more and more combos with it. I’m not sure the normal copy has much potential for growth, but it could go up a couple more dollars at least.

3. Felidar Guardian

Speaking of combos, who at Wizards thought it would be okay to ban three cards from Standard yet leave a turn-four infinite combo with Felidar Guardian and Saheeli Rai? I think this combo will define Standard, so start brewing with or against it. I thought when the ban announcement was going to happen that it was because they missed this in production and wanted to clear it out before it was a problem, but we get to deal with functional Splinter Twin combo in Standard for the time being.

How good will this deck be? What direction will the deck take? Will the strategy be fully focused on assembling and protecting the combo or will it be embedded within another Jeskai deck? There are many questions surrounding this interaction, but one thing’s for sure: you will be seeing this across the table from you, so get your $20 Saheeli’s now or start brewing on how to beat them.

Financial Implications

As one of the most broken interactions to come out of a Standard set in a long time, Felidar Guardian gets a well-deserved spot in the top 10 for this set. It does seem fun to play with in Commander as well, and there are limitless possibilities for fun in the format. Foils will likely be expensive, but I doubt that this uncommon will jump up to or above $2 for the regular copies. Wouldn’t hurt to pick through draft leftovers looking for them, as well as holding onto a playset or two for your binder.

2. Hope of Ghirapur

Hope of Ghirapur
Modern has been missing a card just like Hope of Ghirapur. Legacy has Xanthid Swarm, but Modern lacks this effect to preemptively protect your combo outside of something like Silence. Hope of Ghirapur is a huge deal. It’s like Spellskite in some regards, but this creature shuts down all spells, not just one. There is the potential for this to see play in Affinity as well, and that adds a little to the hype.

Financial Implications

If you play Modern, I’d pick up your playset for $2 each, or less if they dip down, and hold onto them until you need them. The Saheeli Rai-Felidar Guardian combo could utilize this as well as Metallic Mimic-Animation Module, so Standard could potentially be seeing a lot of this little guy. He can fit into any deck, and that’s always a powerful financial aspect to consider.

1. Fatal Push

Thinking back through all of the Top 10 articles I’ve written, I don’t think there’s ever been a set where an uncommon landed the number one slot. This is 2017, though. It’s going to be a great year and this removal spell nabbing the top spot is just one indication of how we’re going to shake things up.

At first glance, this one-mana black instant seems innocent and mediocre. Sure, it’s great to kill a one- or two-mana creature, and sometimes you’ll be able to kill something up to a four-drop. Once we inspect how potent the revolt mechanic is, though, it’s easy to see just how powerful this card truly is. Revolt is similar to the dies keyword, but instead of only triggering with creatures, revolt applies to any permanent. The most important aspect to it being a permanent in this case is that it pairs with lands. That means Evolving Wilds, Windswept Heath, or any fetchland will trigger revolt cards, making them basically always be triggered in formats with these cards available.

Financial Implications

Fatal Push is going to be the black Lightning Bolt. Foils are already a whopping $40, and although that price will probably come down, there’s strong incentive for further growth for a spell that will see play in every format. We are talking Path to Exile levels of influence here, if not more than that. I’m excited to play with it in Standard where it will be much more balanced, but players will sleeve this up in Modern and Legacy as well right away.

Get your copies sooner rather than later because this has nowhere to go but up. Stores will be buying and selling these quickly too. I know my store has a hard time keeping cards like this in stock, so make sure you get your copies and any extras to get rid of when an opportunity arises.

Aether Revolt seems poised with potential for financial growth of cards from this set as well as other cards influenced by these printings. So what are your thoughts about this Top 10? Did I pick them correctly, or did I miss something? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Until next time,
Unleash the Frontier Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

Parsing the Gitaxian Probe & Golgari Grave-Troll Bans

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I knew they were going to take actions in Standard with the new banlist update—especially with it being moved up to this week. The pessimist in me expected that Modern would be left untouched. To be fair, I enjoyed Modern prior to this announcement, much unlike Miracles Legacy, though I'm very happy that action was taken. I think these changes will be net positive for the format.

So let's talk about the new Modern. I'll look at both bannings in terms of the logic that led to them, and the metagame impacts we can expect as a result. Finally, I'll touch on the larger conclusions we can draw regarding Wizards' approach to managing the banlist, and what it means for Modern moving forward.

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Golgari Grave-Troll is Banned

I was concerned that this wasn't going to happen, as unbanning and re-banning a card isn't a great image. I'm very happy that they made this move anyway. The dredge mechanic is kind of neat in very high-powered formats, and very obnoxious in formats trying to promote reasonable gameplay. The management of the Modern banlist largely pushes the format towards attacking with creatures or needing to survive a fast onslaught if you want to go bigger. Dredge just kind of circumvents the rules of engagement, taxes sideboard space, and is surprisingly resilient to hate.

A lot of players would have liked to see Cathartic Reunion get the hammer, which sort of makes sense considering how much power the card lent the deck, though I believe it's really bad form to put the medium card on the banlist. How many looting effects will we ban in the name of Dredge? Frankly, one is too many. You could make a case for Prized Amalgam as well, though ultimately what it comes down to is that a Golgari Grave-Troll deck will rarely fall in line with the play experience Modern is intended to offer. Those other cards have the potential to contribute to less oppressive strategies.

Make no mistake—you can still play Dredge in Modern. Stinkweed Imp showed up from time to time before the unbanning of Grave-Troll, and other dredgers like Golgari Thug will happily serve as scabs. The hit to consistency going down from dredge 6 to dredge 4 will be felt, however, and you can expect the deck to decline in popularity. Dredge is also a deck that mulligans frequently to find the pieces it needs to play the game, and losing its biggest dredger will make these mulligans more punishing. Personally, I'll be removing the graveyard hate from my sideboard unless updated builds of Dredge start making waves. I'm fine taking the loss to a fringe deck, especially now that the deck is more likely to lose to itself.

Gitaxian Probe is Banned

This card was very polarizing. You can tell by the combination of cheers and complaints as response to this banning. Personally, I would contend that there is no way Mutagenic Growth is reasonable if Gitaxian Probe is not, though this ban ultimately hits many of the same decks. I was curious about Pyromancer Ascension making a comeback in the era of Fatal Push but it doesn't look like it was meant to be, as Storm is one of the decks that is absolutely killed by this ban.

This ban doesn't kill Infect by any stretch of the imagination. It makes it harder to build a graveyard for Become Immense, and it will force you to respect more possible options now that you won't know to a certainty the contents of your opponent's hand. That said, the strongest Infect players were already winning these games anyway, through analysis of the opponent's likely holdings and careful management of risk. It's going to be harder to recommend this deck to a newer player, though ultimately Gitaxian Probe was merely the best support card for an abstractly powerful shell. Infect will live on.

Decks like Death's Shadow Zoo and UR Prowess feel this ban a lot more, as they cared about paying life and/or cantrips specifically. Perhaps there will still be playable versions of these decks post-ban, though I'm not optimistic about their positions. Just tossing in Serum Visions or some pump spells is a fine and easy solution for Infect, but these decks lost a much more meaningful element of their game plan.

A number of Modern decks with varied threats have been taking advantage of Mutagenic Growth. Most are hurt by the absence of Gitaxian Probe, given that these decks prominently feature Monastery Swiftspear and other prowess threats. I will say that making these decks significantly worse while leaving Infect more or less intact makes it so that Lightning Bolt will be on average better against your linear aggressive opponents. That's a positive for players who advocate the more interactive and reactive decks.

Part of the reason that I believe Infect will stick around is that the deck does a solid job of going long against the interactive decks. Playing Grixis Delver against Infect is a match of attrition, and the fact that the creature-based combo deck doesn't have to play the game especially aggressively is part of what makes it so powerful. That said, removing Gitaxian Probe definitely reduces the frequency that they are just able to shove and end the game quickly. In that way, this impacts the power level of Infect even though the deck isn't going anywhere.

The Logic Behind Git Probe's Demise

The specific wording of the justification here is worth discussing:

Gitaxian Probe increased the number of third-turn kills in a few ways, but particularly by giving perfect information (and a card) to decks that often have to make strategic decisions about going "all-in." This hurt the ability of reactive decks to effectively bluff or for the aggressive deck to mis-sequence their turn. Ultimately, the card did too much for too little cost.

While this ends up being the biggest death knell for the barely viable Storm (which rarely even cracks Tier 3 in our metagame standings), this ban appears to be targeted more to the free information aspect than the free cantrip. In the past I personally have made the case that Preordain is definitely too good for Modern—this paragraph certainly falls more in line with the crowd that thinks spell-based combo is due for a shot in the arm. I wouldn't read too much into this, as it doesn't explicitly state anything suggesting that they care about the strength of spell-based combo, just that this reasoning doesn't demonstrate that it was the target.

It also illustrates one of the less acknowledged principles of the turn four rule as applied by Wizards in banning decisions. The problem is not simply that a deck is capable of a turn-three kill, but rather that it pulls it off. Without Probe, the creature-combo decks will certainly have fewer turn-three kills on the goldfish, but realistically they are still quite possible. What's significant here, is that Wizards cares about the outcome in games. If Grixis, Jeskai, Jund, or some other interactive deck can successfully delay the kill—whether through bluffing or punishing a mistake—that's acceptable in Wizards' eyes.

Metagame Predictions

The impending downswing in Dredge is most relevant with regard to sideboards, though decks that had positive game-one matchups against Dredge, such as Tron, will be hurt slightly too. Bant Eldrazi is pretty happy to remove those seven graveyard hate spells from their sideboard. Of course, the removal of Gitaxian Probe from the format hurts several of Tron's bad matchups, so if anything I would expect Tron to get better on sum.

The combination of the removal of Gitaxian Probe from the format and the addition of Fatal Push will almost assuredly slow things down. Not to mention that when the fair decks remove the graveyard hate from their sideboards, they'll have even more tools to punish the fastest decks in the format. Time will tell just exactly how much the format will slow down, but I wouldn't bet on all of the fast decks being dead—there are still plenty of tools to beat down and combo-kill.

I would expect an uptick in both Jund and Abzan out of the gates. A lot of players just like Jund, and Lingering Souls is being discussed by many as a great threat in a field of Fatal Pushes. The more players pick up these decks, the happier Tron players will be. Though as I mentioned above, Infect will still be plenty powerful, and will stop Tron from taking the format over entirely.

As we all know, Modern is too diverse to make a blanket statement about what the "best deck" is, and there will definitely be ins, outs, and innovations post-banning. I believe that these bans are definitely positive for the format, even if I wouldn't have made the exact same changes.

Understanding Wizards' Approach

With every round of bannings and unbannings, we get a little more insight as to what will come off or be put on next. With Grave-Troll, the crime came down to requiring very narrow hate cards, being able to beat those hate cards, and being absurdly consistent all the while—making sideboards matter entirely too much. With Gitaxian Probe, the message was clear that they wanted to reduce the number of turn-three kills in the format. I expect that both Dredge and Infect will continue to be watched in whatever form they take going forward. Wizards clearly does not want Dredge to be Tier 1, and if it becomes a successful deck again I would expect Stinkweed Imp or some other element also to get the axe. With regard to the Gitaxian Probe banning, I'm sure that any lingering turn-two-to-three kills with Mutagenic Growth and Become Immense are very much on their radar.

The relevant subtext is that things don't have to get Eldrazi bad even in the post-Modern Pro Tour environment for the ban-hammer to swing. Even though Modern is very popular right now, they are still paying attention to format health. This is excellent, and something that Legacy players can't necessarily claim about their format. I'm excited to see where Modern goes from here, and am very optimistic about Snapcaster Mage's position in the beginning of the year.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Blueprinting Aether Revolt

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Welcome back, Insiders!

While several websites have/will use the past and upcoming week to shove set reviews and finance thoughts on Aether Revolt in your face, I'm back once again to provide my bulk-focused input on the second set in the block, while comparing it to its sister Kaladesh. 

Several months ago I wrote about the commons and uncommons I thought you should be picking from Kaladesh; while I was wrong on a few (I called Harnessed Lightning a quarter on buylists.... whoops), I averaged out to have a pretty good expectation of what you should be pulling out of your bulk commons and commons. Even if you're not someone who wants to go deep into blueprinting or buylisting, I've always felt these "micro set reviews" have a good cross-over audience for Standard players who don't want to overpay for their uncommons at an SCG booth in the future.

While you could just pay the flat $35 or $40 to get your four-ofs on the entire set and cover your bases, that's overpaying. I'm here to show you how not to do that. Without further introductory paragraphs, let's introduce our starting line-up of dimes and nickels in Aether Revolt bulk.

Aether Revolt Common/Uncommon Picks

Caught in the Brights

caughtinthebrights

We are starting off STRONG with this one. Do I expect it to see Standard play? Nope. Casual play? Eh, maybe a bit, but it's a common.

So why am I starting off my article with this card whose non-foil won't even be listed on the blueprint? Well, this is the kind of card that elicits a very strong reaction from some players. Some people hate it for breaking from the "fantasy" aspect of the game, and don't like the fact that's it's basically a joke stapled to a card.

Other people will love this. Some players will relish this in the same way they appreciate foil Storm Crow and foil Little Girl. I'm not saying that you should buy these, but if your box happens to have a foil one.... throw it in your trade binder. While TCG only has these listed at a dollar, I'm confident that you'll find a trade partner who laughs at the absurdity of this card. Someone out there is going to want all the foils, because it's a naked mole rat getting run over by a train on a Magic card.

brights

Consolate Dreadnought

consulatedreadnought

While most vehicles in this set can be skimmed over or ignored, I'm a fan of picking these out as dimes for the casual crowd. More vehicles means a more cohesive 78-card unsleeved casual deck, and numbers like this are great with the red enchantment we'll get to in a little bit. Cards like this will make your opponent wary to tap out for fear of a Start Your Engines from nowhere. Not in Standard, of course, but with the much more casual crowd.

Crackdown Construct

crackdownconstruct

I don't really expect the Wandering Fumerole combo to make it big or even be tier three, but I do expect people to try. Set aside a playset or two from your boxes on release day and slide them into your binder. If a trading partner is trying to throw together their budget combo deck, let them have the set for $2. Even if this isn't a dime on a buylist eventually, standard infinite combos will always perk the Johnnys' heads up. Be an enabler.

Fatal Push

fatalpush

Thankfully I don't need to spend words on this or the next card. These are the "you won't find them in Standard players' bulk very often" cards, but casual players have bulk too. I do recommend selling at the ridiculous $4 to $5 they're at now, though. The odds of the card staying that high are lower than having a chance to buy in later for $2 to $3, especially if you don't need the copies for Modern as soon as possible.

Deceiver Exarch Felidar Guardian

felidarguardian

Obviously this card is very pickable thanks to the Saheeli Rai combo. It might get hated out of Standard, but there's an allure to combo decks in normally combo-free formats that can't be ignored. Have these in your binder ready and waiting to unload, especially if the combo looks too strong and earns the eyes of the five-week mid-format ban.

Gifted Aetherborn

giftedaetherborn

All of the bad nicknames aside, this curves perfectly into the OG Vampire Nighthawk himself. In what format, you ask? Well, casual. Both of those keywords are a slamdunk in the unsleeved world of non-competitive players, and that Vampire tag is blood-red icing on the cake. Pick 'em, sell them for dimes, buy bulk rares, and you've got yourself some profit margins.

Hidden Herbalists

hiddenherbalists

I really like the Modern possibilities and applications of this card with Burning-Tree Emissary. I've been a vocal supporter of Myr Superion for a few years now, and this is just another piece to that yet-to-be-broken puzzle. Saffron Olive is one or two cards away from throwing together one of his signature "all-in" budget Modern decks where you vomit your hand onto the board on turn three, and it probably involves Goblin Bushwhacker, Manamorphose and this gal. I like this card a lot, even if it only ever hits quarters.

Renegade Rallier

renegaderallier

Jim Casale mentioned this card on our Cartel Aristocrats podcast, and I was blown away by how deceptively powerful it was. That's a lot of value you get for only three mana, especially in the colors where a two-mana spell can be Thalia's Lieutenant. Can GW humans make a comeback? I have no idea, I'm not a Standard player. I'm a finance guy who has an eye for bulk, and the connections to sell commons for quarters. Pick these just in case.

Reverse Engineer

reverseengineer

I feel like there's some sort of mono-blue combo deck in Standard with Whir of Invention, Aetherflux Reservoir and zero-drop artifacts, and I think this card serves an important role in that deck. I highly doubt the role extends beyond that, but I think this is more than "card draw with set mechanic stapled on." There's a good reason this is uncommon, even if I don't think it replaces Glimmer of Genius in most lists. Get your Bone Saws ready.

Siege Modification

siegemodification

Slap this on a Dreadnought and you've got a stew! I mean, you've got a 10/11 first strike vehicle that hopefully doesn't get blown out by Fatal Push. You know who's probably not gonna play four Fatal Pushes in everything? Casual players. Keep this janky combo in stock, and be the one to provide players with their four-mana Colossus of Akros. You might need to venture outside the LGS and find where the non-competitive players congregate, but selling on Craigslist is a great way to do that anyway.

Trophy Mage

trophymage

Jason Alt is correct in that this card searches for a lot of important cards, but I don't think that pushes it past dime status, if that. We've got a whole lot of artifact tutors now, and this might make the cut in some budget lists. Her brothers Treasure Mage and Trinket Mage aren't exactly super buylistable, and they've got an arguably larger breadth of important pieces of metal to search for. Do you have enough space to run both this and Fabricate? I don't know, but this isn't a card you want to own a bunch of. Sell or trade them for quarters and bulk rares when possible.

Vengeful Rebel

vengefulrebel

We had a professional player on Brainstorm Brewery this week as a guest, and he shed some light on this card's potential in Modern. Wasteland Strangler has seen some success in conjunction with Path to Exile and Tidehollow Sculler, but I'm not a strong enough Modern brewer to recognize if revolt will be easier to trigger or if the payoff will be worth it. This could be a nasty tempo play to advance the board state of a deck like Jund, or a similar Thoughtseize-style deck where you aim to attrition them out. Keep a set aside for your own Standard or Modern play, because I completely missed the power level of this one on first glance. Buylistable? Probably not, but you don't want to pay 50 cents each for these on a Saturday Open.

Winding Constrictor

windingconstrictor

Golgari cards are my jam, and this is no exception. Maybe I'm seeing this through rose-colored glasses, but I can see this getting a home in a lot of different formats. Standard, Frontier, and Commander constitute a lot of formats, by the way. While it might be weak to Grim Flayer past the early game, I don't think this snake escapes the true bulk bin. I can see buylists paying dimes because of the casual appeal and uses with cards like Atraxa and Hardened Scales.

End Step

It looks like we've got a pretty strong suite of uncommons in Aether Revolt, but the commons are noticeably weaker. This is a similar trend to what we saw in Kaladesh, where we only had a couple of commons blueprinting for nickels while the rest of the spreadsheet had 20-something uncommons.

If you're curious as to what the Blueprint is that I've been ranting about, check out mtgblueprint.com and join the mailing list! It's updated every month or so, and gives you a great out for your bulk common and uncommon picks if you have the time and volume to do so. Thanks for reading! Let me know if you have any other commons or uncommons you're looking out for; you can always find me on Twitter at @Rose0fthorns!

Insider: QS Cast #49: The Card Kingdom Special with Damon Morris

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Play

The QS Cast has returned: Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil continue on with where the cast left off and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Esteemed guest Damon Morris, co-owner of Card Kingdom joins the cast! Want to buy or sell cards? www.cardkingdom.com is the place to do that.
  • CK - how they started, and their growth into one of the largest vendors in the space.
  • CK's operational structure - Policies and procedures, card grading, etc.
  • Discussion about being a large vendor in current market. Is it becoming more difficult? Online vs large LGS business?
  • Large vendors hosting events and their own tournaments (CFB, SCG primarily). Is this something CK has ever considered, or is considering for the future? Why or why not?
  • "MTGFinance" What is Damon's perspective on this niche market of speculating on magic, and magic as an overall investment vehicle.
  • WOTC shifts in how they're handling the product recently. Aggressive reprint policy, increased amount of product releases - what does that look like from the vendor perspective?
  • Is WOTC in danger of threatening the secondary market?
  • With WOTC's product shifts, is CK having to revise their business model in any way, or is it business as usual?
  • Damon's recommendation to bootstrap investors approach "MTGFinance" in the current marketplace.
  • Is Magic thriving? From Damon's perspective, and from CK's lens.
  • Interests with Damon!
  • Aether Revolt talk.

Cards we discussed:




As always, please comment and leave questions for us to address on the next cast! We will be making QS Insider questions a priority, and we want to know what you want covered.

Enjoy! We’re glad to be back.

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG  @the_tark @damon_ck @Card_Kingdom

Insider: MTGO Market Report for January 11th, 2017

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerance and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 9 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

jan9

Standard

There is a lot of news this week with the ahead-of-schedule banned and restricted announcement plus the full spoiling of all cards in Aether Revolt (AER).  Banning cards in Standard is not something that WoTC does lightly; they will only do this in response to drastic declines in tournament attendance. The last time this happened was in the Caw-Blade era when Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic were banned. This time around, three cards are banned in Standard: Emrakul, the Promised End, Smuggler's Copter and Reflector Mage. See the full announcement here.

This move alone is going to set off unpredictable changes in the metagame, which in turn will have dramatic impacts on the prices of cards. On top of this, the spoiling of all the the cards in AER has revealed an infinite combination between the new card Felidar Guardian and the Kaladesh (KLD) mythic rare Saheeli Rai. For a complete analysis of all of these changes, I would recommend listening to Patrick Chapin and Michael Flores on the special edition of Top Level Podcast that was recorded on the day of the announced bans. Check it out here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai

The price of Saheeli in both paper and on MTGO shot upward on Friday almost immediately after the full AER list was revealed. If you were not already holding Saheeli Rai, there wasn't much room to move on this information. There has been a healthy discussion of this card in the forums and I believe it to be a very informative look at this card and how its price has evolved. The rule of thumb should be to take a very close look at three casting-cost planeswalkers, especially if they are cheap. One could have purchased dozens of copies of Saheeli for less than 2 tix each throughout all of December. It's not every day a Standard card quintuples in price, so any experience gleaned from this will be useful to draw upon in the future.

Modern

Not to be outdone, Modern also had two bans announced in Gitaxian Probe and Golgari Grave-Troll. Both of these bans will not completely delegitimize the associated strategies, but it does enough to take the edge off to allow other strategies to have a chance to prosper.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gitaxian Probe

Gitaxian Probe allowed Suicide Zoo and Infect, at very low cost, to check whether the coast was clear in order to attack for lethal. Without it, both decks lose a little consistency and speed, as well as having to be more cautious on the moment to go for the win. The ban of this card also makes any card featuring delve a little worse, reduces the power of storm combo decks, and lowers the consistency of any future combo deck. All of these changes make Modern Magic more compelling for a broader range of decks.

In a very similar way, the return of Golgari Grave-Troll to the Modern ban list will make Dredge a more fair strategy. Although the Dredge aspect of this card is replaceable, there were certain game states in Modern where the graveyard shenanigans were turned off by Grafdigger's Cage, but Golgari Grave-Troll was coming down as a huge threat. Replacing this card with Golgari Thug means this avenue of victory is powered down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Golgari Thug

Both of these bans are having repercussions in the MTGO market. The price of Dredge components and sideboard cards to combat Dredge have fallen substantially. The trade of the week focuses in on Bloodghast as an oversold card, but there are others, such as Leyline of the Void, that are too cheap right now.

Inkmoth Nexus is another card that suffered a selloff to the 15 tix level, before recovering to 19 tix today. This was identified in the QS forums as a good buying opportunity, and I heartily agree with this call. Infect will still be played as an archetype, and this creature-land also shows up as a four-of in Affinity decks. With three linear strategies all taking a step back in Modern, Affinity will see some increased play as a result. I fully expect Inkmoth Nexus to return to the 30-tix level some time in the next 12 months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inkmoth Nexus

There is the risk of a reprint in Modern Masters 2017 (MM3) so I don't think that speculating on this card at over 20 tix is correct. The opportunity was a result of the selloff on Monday; priced in the 15 to 18 tix range, the potential reward outweighs the reprint risk in my judgement.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. This week I bought a few copies of Bloodghast as the triple Zendikar (ZEN) draft leagues came to a close. That was not the only reason I felt this was cheap, though, as the Golgari Grave-Troll ban has also hit the price of all cards associated with Dredge, including sideboard options for other decks.

Have a look at the chart of this card, courtesy of MTGGoldfish, examining the price history of Bloodghast prior to the unbanning of Golgari Grave-Troll last winter.

bloodghast

The price ranged from 4 to 10 tix, so this is the potential I see for this card in the medium term, once the Modern metagame settles down. If Dredge is still a part of the metagame, then Bloodghast will start ticking up again and return to this price range.

There are two big risks with this purchase. With the three weeks of ZEN flashback drafts in the past year, the supply of this card on MTGO might be large enough that this old price range is no longer attainable. The other risk is that Bloodghast is reprinted in MM3. But this risk is small due to the low number of sets that have featured the landfall mechanic. With only ZEN and Worldwake (WWK) to draw from, there is only a small pool of cards to reprint that could support this mechanic in Limited.

The upside to speculating on Bloodghast at its current prices is that the market is oversold at this point and offering a nice discount on a card that has shown to be Modern playable. If some kind of Vampire tribal deck or another graveyard-based archetype takes off in popularity, this card would benefit.

If you can understand and control the risks of speculating, purchasing Modern-playable cards at or near a long-term price low is prudent. In this case, the market thinks Bloodghast won't be played again. When the market is pessimistic, it's time to be a buyer.

A Revolution: The Bannings and Aether Revolt

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I'm very annoyed. I had an entire article on Aether Revolt's Modern impact planned when, without warning, all my Magic-related social media exploded. Wizards had moved up the Banned and Restricted Announcement to Monday. Oh well, looks like all that effort was wasted—time to analyze some implications!

Not that I'm actually complaining about the bans, mind you. Monday's announcement is most welcome, if a bit surprising. Personally I like the policy changes. The delay between when spoilers finished and the B&R changes were revealed was very close to wasted time, seeing how you didn't know if anything you tested would ultimately be relevant. Having more announcements per year will ultimately be positive as well, despite having to deal with the rampant speculation more often. Additional announcements allow Wizards more flexibility when problems (like, say, Eldrazi Winter) arise, and should help prevent similar situations from arising again. All in all, an improvement.

The scale of the announcement was also surprising. Standard has been in serious trouble for some time now, but I never expected three bans there. One, possibly two at most. This really speaks to how desperate Wizards is to get players back into Standard. But, as this brick that just flew through my window reminds me, this is Modern Nexus so let's focus on the banning of Gitaxian Probe and Golgari Grave-Troll.

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Banned: Gitaxian Probe

This one has been building for some time now. Phyrexian mana was always a mistake and this was the worst offender that stayed legal. A "free" cantrip would be powerful enough, but this was always so much more. If you didn't read Wizards' explanation, shame on you. Here it is for clarity's sake:

Gitaxian Probe increased the number of third-turn kills in a few ways, but particularly by giving perfect information (and a card) to decks that often have to make strategic decisions about going "all-in." This hurt the ability of reactive decks to effectively bluff or for the aggressive deck to miss-sequence their turn. Ultimately, the card did too much for too little cost.

This is entirely correct. The unmentioned "few ways" included free prowess/Kiln Fiend triggers, a card to delve to Become Immense, and free storm count. More subtly it let you make looser mulligan decisions since you had a free draw step, which was more potent in unfair decks. The card was simply unfair and we are better off with it gone.

Impact and Effectiveness

While they didn't single out a specific deck, it is clear that Wizards was referring to Infect, Death's Shadow Zoo, and Kiln Fiend combo decks. All these decks are what I call gotcha! decks and as I mentioned they are problematic. If you dislike this kind of deck then the Probe ban was the best thing that could have happened because it was an archetype staple. Not deck staple, archetype. Free information is good and free cards are better. This should help slow things down in Modern.

I expect this ban to work because there are no substitutes for Probe. No, Peek is not a substitute. I know it looks like one but it isn't because you must pay mana. Probe's appeal was that it cost no mana. Mishra's Bauble is similar but not nearly as valuable because the information is limited and the draw delayed. As a result there will be a permanent hole in the gotcha! decks which will make them less appealing and consistent.

The general impact will be for the gotcha! decks to become slower and less consistent. Slower because without perfect information, they will be less willing to go all-in against open mana, which will delay their fast kills. The reduced number of free spells will also keep down their degeneracy. Less consistent because A) They no longer have extra draw steps to find what they need, and B) It's a little harder to enable delve. Not much, but enough to slow things down. As for the specific impacts:

Infect: I've done some goldfishing with a Probeless deck (adding in more pump spells) and it feels a half-turn slower. As it goes for all these decks, you have to mulligan more and you have to guess when to go for it, but for Infect specifically now you have no cantrips to find more spells. You could run Serum Visions but that feels like it slows you down more. As a result you're a little more vulnerable to removal. I also had to work harder and risk more resources to turn on Become Immense. Not by a lot, but by enough to be noticeable. Still a scary deck, but maybe not too scary anymore.

Death's Shadow Zoo: The ban will have a much bigger impact here, where Probe was better than a simple cantrip and often generated virtual card advantage. Between taking off two life, adding a card to your graveyard, triggering prowess, and getting perfect information, this was an insane amount of value for no mana. Nothing else compares. That aside, it will force a major rethink of the deck's construction. Between Probe, Street Wraith, and Mishra's Bauble, the deck was effectively 48 cards. This let them really skimp on lands and greatly increased their consistency. Now they have to fill one of those empty slots with a real card. This will force them to rethink the land count at minimum. Cantrips replace lands to a degree and now they have fewer cantrips so they need more land. With more "real" cards in the deck, it will be harder to find what you need, making the deck more likely to lose to itself. It also makes it less likely you will turn on Death's Shadow early. Will it kill the archetype entirely? Maybe, maybe not. It will give you some incentive to play a more normal Zoo deck.

UR Prowess: Probe was a keystone card in this deck. In addition to all the reasons from the other decks like prowess triggers, it "primed the pump" to flip Thing in the Ice while cantripping. There are enough cheap instants and sorceries that I expect the impact will be small, but now they'll be playing with less certainty and flipping Thing will be harder. It will also be harder to go nuts with Kiln Fiend, possibly enough that they ditch Kiln Fiend altogether and become a UR midrange deck. And I'm fine with that.

Answering Dissent

If you look around the 'net at all, you've almost certainly seen the entire spectrum of reactions by now. From anti-Infect partisans raging that it wasn't Become Immense to Storm stalwarts lamenting their undeserved oppression, I see a lot of players who aren't okay with this ban. The majority are, but there is always dissent. While I acknowledge that there are undeserving decks harmed by this decision, I do believe it was correct. The gotcha! decks needed to be taken down a peg and Probe was the key feature in all of them—in many ways it was the best card. If Infect and Death's Shadow continue to be too strong even with this gone I could see an argument for Become later on, but not now.

Probe will always be at its best in less fair decks. Yes, it saw play in fair decks as well, mostly to enable Young Pyromancer, but it was never as strong. Probe let you see what, if anything, you had to play around or prepare for, and plan your sequencing exactly correctly. There's "correct" sequencing based on matchup knowledge and playing around problem cards, and then there's actually correct sequencing based on what your opponent actually has. Knowledge of how to correctly sequence a turn has always been more powerful in unfair decks than fair decks because they will kill in a single turn and need to know when to go for it (which doesn't really count as "going for it" when you know it will work). That power for free is simply absurd. As a result, Probe will always benefit unfair decks more than fair decks and so the damage to fair decks is unfortunate but acceptable.

I also remind you that Wizards prefers to ban enablers, not strong cards. Become Immense is strong, maybe too strong, but you have to set it up. It is now harder to do that because you have to pay mana for everything and it's harder to chain spells. You also don't know if it's safe to pull the trigger anymore. The right decision is to depower first and reevaluate its power. If Infect is still too good in March, then we'll talk.

Banned: Golgari Grave-Troll

I don't think anyone was actually surprised by this one. I'm quite glad that it's going away again, partially because I hate Dredge and partially because I keep forgetting the hyphen in its name. Wizards really regrets dredge, and if they were going to ban something from the namesake deck it was always going to be a dredge card. Argue all you'd like about Cathartic Reunion and Prized Amalgam, the real problem with Dredge has always been dredge. Furthermore, back when it was unbanned, Wizards noted that it was risky but they wanted to give it a chance. The trial period is over and it turned out to still be unacceptable. So away it went again. In Wizards' words:

Dredge, the mechanic and the deck, has a negative impact on Modern by pushing the format too far toward a battle of sideboards. With the printing of Cathartic Reunion and Prized Amalgam, the deck once again became unhealthy for the format. While those cards were discussed, the real offender always has been the dredge mechanic itself.

Consider this: dredge the mechanic allows Dredge the deck a level of consistency that other graveyard decks cannot match. Grixis Emerge in Standard is effectively dredgeless Dredge, and it isn't very good, arguably in Standard and definitely in Modern. Amalgam and Reunion are okay on their own. It's in the presence of dredge that they become troubling. Remember, ban the enabler first. If it's still a problem, kill the card later.

Impact and Effectiveness

This will not kill Dredge outright. The deck will still function, just not as fluidly. If you want to dredge more than three cards you now have exactly Stinkweed Imp at five and Golgari Thug at four. This will slow the deck down and reduce both its explosiveness and resilience. They're less likely to dredge into threats or answers now, and if they're forced to play a fair game Thug is a much worse creature than GGT. I expect to see Dredge fall off but not completely disappear, and that's fine.

And now, onto the truncated topic I was planning for today.

Aether Revolt Spoilers

It's strange. For the first time, the spoiler is complete in time for my set review. This was an aggressively short yet exciting spoiler season. There is one very obvious card that I won't be spending much time on because it has been discussed to death, but there are also a number of less obvious and largely undiscussed cards as well. Those are the ones I will be focusing on today. Now there are plenty of strong cards, particularly some undercosted green beaters, but I think their impact on Modern will be limited. Mono-green Stompy is a fringe deck at best and I don't see anything changing that reality. Rather, there are some interesting new mechanics and a whole lot of combo cards to discuss.

The Expertises

The cycle of Expertise cards are interesting. They are effectively fixed cascade spells. Cascade was a trigger that cast an additional card when you cast the spell. Now that extra card is dependent on you having it in your hand and on the initial spell resolving. In exchange you get to choose what to cascade into.

As a result I don't expect any of these spells to have much of an impact. You were playing the cascade spell for the trigger in the first place (which is why Bloodbraid Elf was the best of the bunch—it was a reasonable card by itself) but with Expertise you really need to want the card itself. And they're all pretty meh for Modern. The red one, Kari Zev's, is costed for Modern but the effect isn't really Modern-playable. [tippy title="Yahenni's Expertise's" width="330" height="330"][/tippy] effect is the most playable, but it's directly competing against Damnation and I don't think it wins.

I realize that these can be used to play CMC-less cards that you draw rather than cascade into like Living End or Restore Balance. My question is simply do you actually want to have these safety valves in your deck? Living End doesn't want [tippy title="Yahenni's Expertise" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]; it would put opposing creatures into the graveyard. Kari Zev's looks like the most likely candidate, but if you don't draw your uncastables, do you really want that card in your deck? I have doubts.

Revolt

There is little new for me to say about revolt itself. If you want to go in-depth, go read Ryan's article on [tippy title="Fatal Push" width="330" height="330"][/tippy], the card that everyone else has lost their mind about. I agree with Ryan's assessment and only have this to add: what do you cut for Push? Obviously Disfigure is out of a job now, but that card didn't see much play. So what goes? If you cut unconditional removal like Murderous Cut you lose to Primeval Titan and Reality Smasher. If you cut something like Lightning Bolt you lose flexibility. So what will be sacrificed for this card?

More interesting to me is another black revolt card, [tippy title="Vengeful Rebel" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. Remember, revolt looks for any card, so Rebel plus Eldrazi Displacer can machine-gun your opponent's entire board (mana willing). Will this be good? I don't know, but I do know that it will be more reliable than Wasteland Strangler. And you never have to target your own creatures. Keep an eye on this card.

Finally, I want to highlight [tippy title="Renegade Rallier" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. It looks innocuous, but my inner Craig Wescoe is giddy at the sight of that card. Alongside Aether Vial, this card is a recovery engine. I have visions of Vialing in Rallier following Supreme Verdict, getting back Voice of Resurgence and then using Flickerwisp to do it again next turn. Is this good? Maybe. Will it be fun? Oh, yes.

Improvise

This is the mechanic that has the most potential for bustedness in Modern. It works like convoke for artifacts, but you cannot reduce a colored cost. This appears to be weaker than convoke but these are artifact we're talking about. It isn't hard to flood your board with them, meaning you can pretty easily pay for a lot of improvisation.

The most powerful improvise card for Modern is probably [tippy title="Whir of Invention" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. Tutoring for artifacts has been busted before (Tinker) and while this is not quite that powerful, it is pretty ridiculous. Eggs was a super powerful deck in the past that led to a banning, after which it has been held down partly by Stony Silence and partly by its own inconsistency. A Chord of Calling for artifacts is just what the doctor ordered for Eggs to fix that second problem. It already has access to Reshape, but for any tutor target other than Lotus Bloom, Whir will effectively cost less mana (and forego the required sacrifice).

Combos on the Horizon?

Eggs is getting other tools as well (the Implements, for example, which fit perfectly into the deck's game plan) and I'm sure somebody will discover the optimal configuration before long. We could also conceivably see an entirely new combo deck arise on the back of [tippy title="Whir of Invention" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. Wizards has printed a lot of artifact combo pieces in Kaladesh block, and Whir is the perfect way to find whatever piece you were missing to go infinite. Much like Abzan Company and Kiki Chord use Chord to assemble two- or three-card creature combos, we could see a new Whir deck that does the same with artifacts. At this time I'm not sure what the exact combo would be, but there's no shortage of weird, comboy artifacts in Kaladesh block.

Consider [tippy title="Paradox Engine" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. This could be infinite mana coupled with mana rocks, or infinite improvisation. Five mana is a lot, but it isn't that hard for a dedicated combo deck to generate that while going off. I don't know how well that would actually work in practice, but the potential is there.
Then there's Cheerios, the Puresteel Paladin combo deck, which played 0-mana equipment and Retract to generate lots of storm. The deck was previously very bad because most of the deck was actual air, and without Paladin or Monastery Mentor in play it did nothing. It also lost to Chalice of the Void on zero and Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Now it has [tippy title="Sram, Senior Edificer" width="330" height="330"][/tippy] to act as another Paladin, so it is less prone to failure than before. Still loses to Thalia and Chalice though.

One combo I am not expecting much from is Saheeli Rai and [tippy title="Felidar Guardian" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. Yes, I know it looks like Splinter Twin. No, it is not Splinter Twin. That combo was good because it could happen at instant speed and protect itself. Guardian and Rai must be played at sorcery speed and will be left in the open if you want to combo before turn seven. Another problem is that Twin combo was made of reasonable cards. Exarch was a decent disruptive card and blocker when needed, and Twin on Snapcaster Mage was an impressive value engine. Saheeli is not Modern-playable outside of combos and Guardian really isn't a Modern card. Maybe it will be good in Standard but it just won't fill the void the banning created. Let it go.

Metallic Mimic

Finally, I'd be remiss if I skipped [tippy title="Metallic Mimic" width="330" height="330"][/tippy]. A Bramblewood Paragon for all decks, this card is definitely cheap enough to find a home in Merfolk. The fact that it becomes one is another positive. I also like that the boost is a counter which is valuable should Mimic eat removal. The question is what to cut to make room. You need to have it early to pump anything, but Merfolk lists are pretty tight and I don't think it replaces any "normal" Merfolk. Phantasmal Image seems an easy cut but beyond that I'm not sure. It could be that the extra redundancy is enough that you want a full playset but I'm not convinced yet. I will be trying the card soon, you can count on that.

The Revolution Waits for No One

Between the bannings and the new cards, I expect quite a few shake-ups by the time Regionals and GP Vancouver roll around next month. I'm also very relieved that nothing was unbanned yet. I'm still testing Jace and would have been upset if that article was no longer possible. As it has been pointed out, Wizards has frequently banned something at the beginning of the year and then unbanned something later, so look to March for the hopeful return of Preordain.

Insider: The “Why” – Knowing Your Goals in Speculation

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Welcome back readers! Today's article is based on a little introspective thinking I did the other day.

As I've been speculating on Magic now for over five years (it's hard to believe), I've definitely had some big wins and losses. I've stated in many previous articles that I never speculate on a card unless I myself believe in it. I definitely respect the opinions of my fellow speculators and writers, but in the end it's my money and the risk I take purchasing any cards is on me. Therefore, it's important that I not just follow a trend blindly.

This is also the reason that I feel it's critical for anyone who wants to voice their opinion on a speculation target to do so with valid reasoning behind it. This isn't to call out anyone in particular, but to remind everyone who is thinking of speculating on a card that there is risk associated with doing so, and you should not only understand the risks but also why you're willing to take them.

If you want a great example of this look at my fellow writer Sigmund Ausfresser. If you read his articles (and I suggest you do) you'll see he almost completely ignores Standard and focuses a lot on Old School and Reserved List cards. Both of these types of targets are very low-risk—Reserved Lists can't be reprinted per Wizard's stated policy, while Old School legality is defined specifically using print date (so reprints of the playable cards are still illegal).

For some speculators, this might seem like a severely limited pool of cards to choose from, but Sig's logic behind choosing these types of cards is sound. He has stated repeatedly that the goal of his speculation is to fund his child's (soon to be children's) college education. This is his "why," and as such he finds it unacceptable (and I imagine his wife does too) to risk the college fund on less stable speculations.

What Is Your "Why"?

I'll be the first to admit that when asking myself this question I immediately drew a blank, and that's a bit terrifying. The reason is because I've amassed a sizable collection and it's sometimes hard to look at the new sets and think, "And now it'll grow more," with no idea of when it will shrink.

That isn't to say I hate having so many cards because I don't. As a child playing Magic, I remember that my allowance could afford me about a pack per week (back when they were around $3 each) so it took me a long time to fill up even a single 1000-count box.

cardbox

When I first started speculating it was so that I could afford Legacy (a format near and dear to my heart). I couldn't fathom spending $100 on an Underground Sea. But I realized that if I could identify an underpriced card and pick up multiple copies, I could effectively buy an expensive card at a huge discount. After my pick went up (assuming I hit) I could then trade my copies into other cards to "lock in" my gains.

My biggest early success came from buying and trading for all of the Innistrad buddy lands in the $2-$3 dollar range. When they spiked after Zendikar rotated, I traded them into my LGS for a NM Italian The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale (which at the time was around $300). All in all, I spent about $85 on the buddy lands that I traded in for the Tabby.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

That got me hooked. My next goal became getting my set of 40 duals and 40 fetches. Once that was accomplished, I simply wanted to have a set of every Legacy-playable card so I could build any deck I wanted.

I eventually abandoned that goal. I was putting a ton of money into the game, and after building multiple Legacy decks, I found that I only actually enjoyed playing a couple. So I cancelled that goal and have been in autopilot mode ever since. It's important to remember that while we want to try to reach goals we set, it's perfectly acceptable to re-evaluate them—especially if on the path of reaching them we realize they are not in fact where we want to go.

Now my favorite trades are for bulk rares, and Commander and Modern cards that I think are underpriced. This unfortunately means that I don't do nearly as much trading as I used to. When I go to GPs and other major events, I spend most of my time buylisting stuff to dealers (so I guess I am shrinking my collection down somewhat, but it sure doesn't feel like it) instead of trading with players.

In the process of writing (and a lot of introspective thinking), I've come to a conclusion regarding what my goal in MTG speculation should be. It is likely one that many of you share: to reduce the cost of playing the game regularly, or semi-regularly, to less than $15 a month. For me, that will include tournament entry as well, which means any larger, more expensive tournament I play in will require having built up a "bank" through card sales to cover the cost.

I chose this goal because I've realized that I can't specify how much I've spent on the game, or how much I have worth of cards, and that bothers me somewhat. I had intended to do a full catalog of everything this summer (when I was between jobs) but I ended up doing a lot of sorting and much needed housework.

That being said, I have a whole lot of money invested in cards, and I'd like to slowly start locking in some of my gains and liquidating some assets. I had been doing that by buylisting (as previously mentioned) but I want to take a more active role (likely selling locally and on Facebook).

How Goals Can Drive Decisions

If we consider the "why" to be our goal or the reason behind our choices, then it's extremely important to know it. Without it we are travelers without a map. Each choice moves us in a direction, but with no final destination in sight we can't know if we're going in the right direction or not.

adventure-map
Frodo's party may not have had a map, but they he did have a leader who knew the way.

As I've always been one who best learned by examples, let's consider a made-up speculator named Alex.

Alex wants to get into Modern but just started playing the game four months ago. He or she doesn't have a whole lot of cards, nor do they have a lot of extra money lying around (perhaps Alex is in college and most of their paycheck has to go towards living expenses). But Modern looks like a lot of fun, and the local game store has a good Modern and Standard player base.

The first step for Alex would be to watch some of the other Modern players and get a feel for what type of deck they want to play. With a limited budget in an expensive format, switching decks often will not be possible.

The easiest way to figure out if you enjoy playing a deck or not is to proxy it up and get a feel for by playing casually with other players. Through this process, and talking with the other Modern players about what kinds of options are available, Alex can make a decision of what deck to buy.

Now that Alex has picked out a deck they want to build, then all transactions (trades and buys) should help Alex get one step closer to the deck of choice. This isn't to say Alex shouldn't buy or speculate on cards that happen to be a great deal, but that they must be vigilant with their decisions.

If Alex buys some hot Standard card because it's 10% off, it may end up biting them when the deck it was played in falls out of favor and it drops to 50% of what they paid for it. Sometimes a short-term "win" can be a long-term loss.

So Alex is smart and chooses to pass on that Standard card even though it's on sale. As Alex acquires cards for the deck, he or she pulls out the proxies and puts the new cards in their place. All while playing more casual games with the other Modern players and getting a better feel for the deck. By the time he or she completes the deck, they will have a good feel for it. The deck itself serves as the map, as each time a proxy gets replaced another step has been taken getting closer to the final destination.

Conclusion

The purpose of this article was to make you (the reader) think about why you speculate. Knowing that should ultimately help drive the decisions you make. There are so many decent speculation targets out there, but nobody (whether here on QS or elsewhere) has unlimited funds. So it's important to try to make your maximize the growth of your money—but also to know what you'll do with it once it is made.

Insider: Post-Banning Speculation Targets & Aether Revolt

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When I woke up this morning I had no idea how drastically different constructed Magic would look by lunchtime. A surprise emergency banning took place a full week ahead of schedule. For those who missed the announcement, here were the casualties:

Banned in Standard:

Banned in Modern:

These bannings are a big deal and will shake up both formats. I'm always excited for change, and I'm looking forward to taking a crack at solving both formats. For today, I'll discuss some speculation targets related to both formats, and close with some potential sleepers in Aether Revolt.

Modern Specs

A few months ago I wrote an article about potential Modern bannings on Channel Fireball where I reached similar conclusions. Ultimately I recommended banning both Gitaxian Probe and something from Dredge. I thought that Prized Amalgam or Cathartic Reunion should do the trick, whereas Grave-Troll ultimately got the axe.

Dredge is obviously the biggest loser in the equation because the Grave-Troll banning directly takes it down a peg. However, aside from hurting Dredge I'm not sure that much else really changes. Dredge becoming less of a force doesn't really impact the decks that people will or won't play.

Gitaxian Probe going away obviously impacts a number of decks: Infect, Death's Shadow, UR Prowess, Storm, and more. The fact of the matter is that Gitaxian Probe is a card that simply should not exist and doesn't belong in Modern. I'm pretty happy with this ban.

From a metagame perspective, it's possible that Probe decks would have naturally been taken down a peg by the printing of Fatal Push. Push is obviously fantastic against decks like Death's Shadow and Infect trying to combo-kill with creatures.

The printing of Fatal Push and the bannings will likely create some big shifts in the metagame. For one, controlling midrange decks pick up a nice new piece of tech. Secondly, many of these fast creature combo decks become weaker.

One natural place to look for major gains would be Tron. The Gitaxian Probe decks have long been the natural predator of Tron, and Tron preys on the Fatal Push decks that are bound to start proliferating in number.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Ugin isn't too expensive and is ineligible for the next Modern Masters reprinting. I really like Ugin as an investment card right now.

Also, while expensive, the Ugin's Fate promo version of the card is pretty sweet and could also be a card that becomes highly sought out. $100 is a lot, but consider the price of cards like textless Mutavault and Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind. It might be a card to pick up now before Tron becomes more popular.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Karn is the signature card of the Tron deck and part of the fearsome nut draw. Displaced combo players are going to be looking for new decks and that could really rock demand for Tron cards, especially if the archetype appears to be well positioned.

My expectation would be that cards from the decks that were hit by the bannings will decline, while basically everything else looks poised for a gain.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Puresteel Paladin

I also think that Puresteel Paladin is a pretty awesome speculation target right now. One of the problems with this deck before was that it could only run four copies of Paladin and had to use Spoils of the Vault to find it. Sram, Senior Edificer from AER gives the deck redundancy at the most important position—the lynchpin effect—which make the deck poised to be competitive moving forward.

Standard Specs

Wizards appears to have gotten the message that people hated Standard loud and clear. Emrakul, Copter, and Reflector Mage leaving take a big bite out of the established pecking order of tier-one Standard decks. If the objective was to shake up the established hierarchy with the release of Aether Revolt, mission accomplished. They took a card from every major archetype: Vehicles, Aetherworks, Delirium, and UW Flash.

We're also getting some new cards in Aether Revolt that promise to fill the void. First up, Felidar Guardian combines with Saheeli Rai from Kaladesh to create a combo kill reminiscent of Splinter Twin.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai

These two in combination create infinite, hasty cat tokens just like Splinter Twin from back in the day. It seems pretty clear that a two-card "win the game" combo based around two reasonable cards will see considerable Constructed play. In fact, the Reflector Mage banning may have had something to do with its interaction with Felidar Guardian.

If you missed the boat on Saheeli, now isn't exactly the time to pick her up, but we can look to the other pieces we expect a "Copy Cat" shell to run.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Torrential Gearhulk

I like blue Gearhulk as an investment because Jeskai Control was a deck that didn't really lose very much. It won the last Pro Tour and could be primed to improve moving forward. It also seems probably that some form of Jeskai Control could just port the combo in and also have a way to win all at once. Either way, I'm sure that Torrential Gearhulk will be a player moving forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Verdurous Gearhulk

I can't even believe how cheap Verdurous Gearhulk has become! With a bunch of the best cards being emergency-banned it seems like there's a good chance that Gearhulk could wake up and fill the gap.

Winding Constrictor seems like an interesting build-around that synergizes quite well with the green Gearhulk. It's basically a Hardened Scales attached to decent-sized body. If you spread out the +1/+1 counters from Verdurous, you essentially get double the number.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tireless Tracker

Tracker is another card I'm pretty high on right now. With Fatal Push being the obvious best card in the new set, there are a lot of reasons to play Tracker. First of all, Tracker incentivizes playing Evolving Wilds, which also triggers the revolt mechanic. Second of all, the Clue tokens created by Tracker will also help us trigger revolt throughout the game.

Also, without Emrakul, the Promised End around to abruptly end control and midrange match-ups, these games will once again become about outgrinding the opponent. Nobody grinds harder than Tracker in the mid- to lategame, supplying a seemingly endless supply of cards and becoming gigantic in the process.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Master Trinketeer

There are also some cool Servo synergies floating around in the new set, including Sram's Expertise and Metallic Mimic. Adam pointed out that between Metallic Mimic, Chief of the Foundry, and Master Trinketeer, there are now three Servo lords in Standard that could make a Servo token deck playable.

I agree one-hundred percent that bulk rares like Trinketeer are excellent pick-ups right now. Low risk and high rewards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fevered Visions

Looking for things to do with another new card I'm excited for in the new set, Baral's Expertise, I came across Fevered Visions. Baral's Expertise is a very powerful effect that can end the game on the spot, and I think it will be good in UR Fevered Visions.

Generally speaking, I think Visions is a great card to pick up. Keep in mind that literally all of the competition was taken down a peg and the deck only improved with the printing of Baral's Expertise and Shock. Also, don't underestimate the power of Shock—it breaks up the Felidar Guardian/Saheeli Rai combo for just one mana.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goldnight Castigator

Another powerful combo that I've begun to experiment with is Baral's Expertise into Goldnight Castigator. The effect is about as swingy as things can get. I love the way that it takes all of their pressure off the board and adds a lot of speed and pressure to our side of the board.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inspiring Vantage

Finally, the fastlands are good value right now and likely as cheap as they are going to get for a while. The ones that see a lot of Standard play will likely improve in price while others will stay about the same. I also like these as investments because they will always have a home in Modern.

Aether Revolt Sleeper Picks

Overall Aether Revolt looks to be an extremely weak set. A lot of the cards are based around energy synergies which is only relevant for Standard—and not good for card prices. The big exception to the rule is, of course, Fatal Push.

fatalpush

Fatal Push is an absurd Magic card and to be honest I'm really surprised it even exists. There has been a trend with not making removal more efficient than creatures and this card clearly bucks that tendency.

It is very likely underpriced at $3.00. This card will probably follow uncommons like Inquisition of Kozilek, Path to Exile, or Remand and hit $8-plus while in Standard. Path to Exile has been reprinted a ton of times and still has a very high price tag. Fatal Push is likely better than Path in Modern, and also Standard-legal.

baralsexpertise

I think all of the Expertise cards are potentially undervalued right now. Each of these effects is reasonably costed but the fact that you get to "double spell" for free pushes them way over the edge. The advantage is so obvious. It lets you come from behind and fight back into a game or outright bury an opponent in a close game.

I think these are really powerful cards that people haven't played with enough to understand their role yet.

heroicintervention

Heroic Intervention is another card that I think is highly underrated. Both of these effects are really powerful and having the choice to do either/or for such a reasonable cost is appealing. I'm not sure exactly what kind of deck wants to play a card like this, but I think it is inherently powerful and better than a low-end rare.

scraptrawler1

Last but not least, my favorite speculation target from the new set. I know a good thing when I see it, and Scrap Trawler is a good thing. In a set full of artifact synergies there is a lot of value to be had when you can continuously rebuy lost artifacts. I think the card even has Vintage and Legacy applications.

Right now it's in the junk rare category, but I think it's likely to be a competitive and casual staple for years to come. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the breakout sleeper card of the set.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, Aether Revolt isn't the flashiest set in the history of the world. It has a few nice cards that are going to have a strong impact, but overall it feels like a bunch of standard cog-type cards. Despite the fact that the set is low-impact, Standard is about to change in a huge way as a result of the emergency bannings. Modern too.

I'm looking forward to new Magic, new decks, and new ideas in the coming weeks. Obviously, the banning just happened yesterday and I'm on level zero when it comes to analyzing the information and the effect it will have, but these ideas feel rooted in sound logic to me. Obviously, things will start changing quickly so be ready to move in on new cards as the trends start to establish themselves.

As always, good luck and happy trades at the prerelease this weekend!

Quantifying Fatal Push’s Effectiveness: The Push Index

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Happy new year, Moderners! It's good to be back to the Nexus, even if I expect I'll do far fewer articles in 2017 than I did last year. Between personal and professional developments, it's been a very busy few months for me, but I'm excited to return and plunge into Magic's newest set. No promises about how many articles I'll do or when they'll hit the Nexus feed! That said, I can always promise the articles I can do will offer the same rigorous, data-driven analysis readers have come to expect.

I'm bringing that spirit to a new Aether Revolt staple that needs no introductions. You've dreamed of playing with it since the Masters of Modern preview. You've read about it all week. Soon, your poor creatures will be feeling the "THIS IS KALADESH" kick at a tournament near you. Now all that's left is to break out those metagame statistics and, in true Nexus fashion, quantify just how good Fatal Push really is.

Fatal Push Index banner

It's been a while since a card had this much hype. Eldritch Evolution, the Birthing Pod that never was, wasn't even close. Authors and players across the Modern content-sphere haven't been able to contain their Push praise: see the cheers of Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, Sam Black's (premium) writeup, or the measured analysis of our own Ryan Overturf. In anticipation of a dozen more articles on the card's power, and to avoid fitting the Reddit madlibs template, I'm staying away from these theoretical and high-level surveys of Fatal Push's potency. Instead, I'm taking a deeper, data-driven dive into Fatal Push's contextual relevance in Modern.

Today's article continues the Lightning Bolt index tradition I wrote about almost two years ago. In that article, I used metagame prevalences and deck compositions to quantify Bolt's effectiveness in any given period of time. This article will do the same for Modern's newest removal icon through the introduction of the "Push Index." Think of it as the quantified measure behind Jordan's "Push Test" discussed last Friday. By analyzing the top decks in current Modern and cataloging their creature rosters, I'll suggest an objective and quantifiable tool to determine if Fatal Push is pure heat or nothing but hype.

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Creature Hits and Creature Misses

We already know why Push is Wizards' glittering holiday prize for our format. It's a one-drop removal spell in a color that has conspicuously lacked quality one-drop removal. Its revolt trigger, a real hoop in Standard, is a fetchland formality in Modern. Furthermore, Modern is dominated by low-cost creatures that die to even an unrevolted Push, with almost everything else getting Pushed overboard after revolt is met. It even kills creature lands, an honor not even venerable Abrupt Decay boasts. You can check out Ryan's, PVDDR's, Jordan's, or Sam's articles for more content on these and other Push merits. Here, I want to shift our attention away from Push itself and over to Push's targets.

Unlike Path to Exile, both the old Bolt and the new Push are conditional removal spells that can't dispatch everything. Their strength in Modern is directly related to how many creatures they can reliably remove. Consider the iconic Lightning Bolt. For Bolt-slingers everywhere, the card is at its strongest in a format where 100% of the decks are playing creatures with exclusively 1, 2, or 3 toughness, and no cards to boost their toughness. Also, no Slippery Bogles. Bogles need not apply to this article. In that theoretical metagame, Bolt would be the optimal removal spell, killing every creature with no drawback for only one mana. By a similar token, Bolt would be horrible in a format where every deck is playing only creatures with 4+ toughness. This spectrum was at the core of my Bolt Index article, which attempted to quantify Bolt utility based on creature weakness or resilience to Bolt.

Push operates in a similar fashion. In a format where every deck is playing only creatures that cost 0-2 mana, Fatal Push is the new Bolt. Especially if some of those 0-2 mana creatures are Bolt-resistant beefcakes named Tarmogoyf or Death's Shadow. By contrast, a format that's all Tron and Breach Valakut all the time is too heavy to Push around. At least it's a flavor win: no one kicks, let alone pushes, Primeval Titan anywhere. As with the Bolt Index accounting for toughness, a so-called "Push Index" would need to account for mana cost. Specifically, for unconditional hits (i.e. creatures costing 0-2 mana), conditional hits (i.e. creatures costing 3-4 mana), and misses (i.e. creatures costing 5+ mana).

The following sections divide the common Tier 1 and Tier 2 creatures into unconditional hits, conditional hits, and misses based on their mana costs. This will give you a comprehensive list of all the relevant targets in (or out) of Push's crosshairs. It's also the foundation for the quantitative analysis later: we can't talk about the metagame showings of various creatures without identifying those creatures first. All sections are nested under spoiler boxes to save you from too much scrolling. Also, hit me up in the comments if you think I missed a major entry.

If you're already a Push believer, skip the "unconditional" and "conditional" sections. Note the distinction between unconditional and conditional hits. Even though Push removes both, it only removes the conditional hits if revolt is online. As this doesn't happen reliably in every deck, we'll need to weigh those conditional hits less than the unconditional hits, which is why we split them up now. Jump ahead to the "misses," which will be the primary hurdles to Push's future Modern success.

Unconditional hits: 54

[su_spoiler title="All 0- to 2-mana creatures" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

Arcbound Ravager (Affinity)
Birds of Paradise (Kiki Chord, Bant Eldrazi, etc.)
Blighted Agent (Infect)
Blinkmoth Nexus (Affinity)
Bloodghast (Dredge)
Celestial Colonade (Jeskai Control)
Cursecatcher (Merfolk)
Dark Confidant (Jund)
Death's Shadow (Death's Shadow Zoo)
Delver of Secrets (Grixis Delver)
Dryad Arbor (Infect)
Dwynen's Elite (Elves)
Eidolon of the Great Revel (Burn)
Elvish Mystic (Elves)
Elvish Visionary (Elves)
Glistener Elf (Infect)
Goblin Guide (Burn)
Grim Flayer (Abzan)
Grim Lavamancer (Burn)
Harbinger of the Tides (Merfolk)
Heritage Druid (Elves)
Inkmoth Nexus (Infect, Affinity)
Insolent Neonate (Dredge)
Kiln Fiend (UR Prowess)
Leonin Arbiter (Eldrazi and Taxes)
Llanowar Elves (Elves)
Lord of Atlantis (Merfolk)
Master of the Pearl Trident (Merfolk)
Memnite (Affinity)
Monastery Swiftspear (Burn, Death's Shadow Zoo, etc.)
Mutavault (Merfolk)
Narcomoeba (Dredge)
Nettle Sentinel (Elves)
Noble Hierarch (Infect, Bant Eldrazi, etc.)
Ornithopter (Affinity)
Phantasmal Image (Merfolk)
Raging Ravine (Jund)
Scavenging Ooze (Jund, Abzan)
Shambling Vent (Abzan)
Signal Pest (Affinity)
Silvergill Adept (Merfolk)
Snapcaster Mage (Grixis Delver, Grixis Midrange, etc.)
Spellskite (Bant Eldrazi)
Steel Overseer (Affinity)
Steppe Lynx (Death's Shadow Zoo)
Tarmogoyf (Jund, Abzan)
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (Eldrazi and Taxes)
Thing in the Ice (UR Prowess)
Tidehollow Sculler (Eldrazi and Taxes)
Vault Skirge (Affinity)
Wall of Omens (Kiki Chord)
Wall of Roots (Kiki Chord)
Wild Nacatl (Burn, Death's Shadow Zoo)
Young Pyromancer (Grixis Delver)

[/su_spoiler]

I've omitted Sakura-Tribe Elder from the count because its purpose is to die and I've never seen a game lost to Steve beatdown. The same is not true of Insolent Neonate, which is why the menacing looter still makes the cut.

Conditional hits: 21

[su_spoiler title="All 3- to 4-mana creatures" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

Anafenza, the Foremost (Abzan)
Blade Splicer (Eldrazi and Taxes)
Eldrazi Displacer (Bant Eldrazi, Eldrazi and Taxes)
Eldrazi Skyspawner (Bant Eldrazi)
Elvish Archdruid (Elves)
Eternal Witness (Kiki Chord, Elves)
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Elves)
Flickerwisp (Eldrazi and Taxes)
Khalitas, Traitor of Ghet (BGx, Grixis)
Master of Etherium (Affinity)
Master of Waves (Merfolk)
Matter Reshaper (Bant Eldrazi)
Merrow Reejery (Merfolk)
Pia and Kiran Nalaar (Jund, Kiki Chord, etc.)
Prized Amalgam (Dredge)
Restoration Angel (Kiki Chord)
Siege Rhino (Abzan)
Stinkweed Imp (Dredge)
Thought-Knot Seer (Bant Eldrazi, Eldrazi and Taxes)
Vendilion Clique (Jeskai Control, Grixis Control/Midrange, etc.)
Wasteland Strangler (Eldrazi and Taxes)

[/su_spoiler]

Kitchen Finks is conspicuously absent because its current metagame prevalence has taken a real dive. Abzan Company's decline is a big player here, although Company is certainly not the only deck to use Finks.

Misses: 11

[su_spoiler title="All 5+ mana creatures" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

Drowner of Hope (Bant Eldrazi)
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn (Jeskai Control, Breach Titan)
Etched Champion (Affinity)
Golgari Grave-Troll (Dredge)
Gurmag Angler (Grixis Delver, Grixis Control/Midrange, etc.)
Primeval Titan (Titan Breach)
Reality Smasher (Bant Eldrazi)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang (Grixis Delver, Grixis Control/Midrange, etc.)
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger (Gx Tron)
World Breaker (Gx Tron)
Wurmcoil Engine (Gx Tron)

[/su_spoiler]

I've included Etched Champion here even though Push can theoretically kill it while metalcraft is inactive. This is a relevant distinction because removal spells like Spatial Contortion and Wasteland Strangler can kill a Champion where Push cannot, so we should acknowledge the opportunity cost of playing Push over something that does hit Champs.

Hits and misses in the metagame context

The purpose of these lists isn't to dazzle readers with their lengths. Yes, between these three lists you'll find basically every mainboarded creature in top-tier Modern. True, Push unconditionally removes 56% of those creatures, and conditionally takes out 15% more. Sure, only 28% of Modern creatures effectively dodge Push on casting cost alone. Despite those impressive-sounding stats, none of this is a true measure of Push's effectiveness because none of those creatures exist in a vacuum. They only matter insofar as a certain metagame is playing certain creatures.

If a disproportionate share of top-tier decks are playing creatures in the "misses" category, who cares if those creatures only make up 28% of Modern's collective creature roster? They might make up 60% of creatures played in Tier 1 decks! This is why our Push analysis can't stop at a list of what it can and cannot remove. We must extend that analysis to how those creatures appear in real metagames.

Calculating a Push Index

As with the old Bolt Index, the new Push Index is just one method of rating Push's effectiveness in any given metagame. We'll calculate it by listing the Tier 1 and Tier 2 decks, determining the mana-cost distribution of their creatures, finding what percentage of creatures in tier decks succumb to Aether Revolt's new toy, and weighting the results based on metagame share. In the end, this will help us decide when Push is good, when Push is better in one metagame than in another, and how heavily to invest valuable removal slots in the card.

Defining the metagame

To calculate the Index, we first need a metagame. At the risk of stealing Jason's metagame update thunder, which I'm told is roaring to a Modern Nexus site near you shortly, here are some rough numbers on Tier 1 and Tier 2 decks from December 2016. These stats might change when Jason does the final metagame update push, but it's a solid starting point for the New Year and for our Index.

Preliminary December 2016 Metagame

Deck NameMetagame %
Infect9.4%
Burn7.7%
Jund7.4%
Bant Eldrazi7.3%
Dredge6.3%
Affinity6.1%
Abzan4.0%
RG Tron3.6%
Jeskai Control2.6%
Grixis Delver2.4%
Death's Shadow Zoo2.4%
Titan Breach2.0%

(Metagame side note: reactive decks didn't really end the year on a good note...)

Now that we know what decks make up our current metagame, we need to go a level deeper and see what creatures make up those decks. The following spoiler boxes list the copies, counts, and costs of the average creatures in representative lists. To capture the essential top-tier creatures, I looked at the highest-finishing lists from high-attendance events. The results are recorded below. Feel free to skip ahead to the end if you don't need the full deck-by-deck breakdown.

[su_spoiler title="Infect (17 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Glistener Elf (CMC 1)
1 Dryad Arbor (CMC 0)
4 Blighted Agent (CMC 2)
4 Inkmoth Nexus (CMC 0)
4 Noble Hierarch (CMC 1)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Burn (17 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Goblin Guide (CMC 1)
1 Grim Lavamancer (CMC 1)
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel (CMC 2)
4 Wild Nacatl (CMC 1)
4 Monastery Swiftspear (CMC 1)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Jund (16 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Dark Confidant (CMC 2)
4 Scavenging Ooze (CMC 2)
4 Tarmogoyf (CMC 2)
4 Raging Ravine (CMC 0)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Bant Eldrazi (28 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

1 Birds of Paradise (CMC 1)
3 Drowner of Hope (CMC 6)
3 Eldrazi Skyspawner (CMC 3)
4 Eldrazi Displacer (CMC 3)
3 Matter Reshaper (CMC 3)
4 Noble Hierarch (CMC 1)
4 Reality Smasher (CMC 5)
2 Spellskite (CMC 2)
4 Thought-Knot Seer (CMC 4)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Dredge (24 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Bloodghast (CMC 2)
4 Golgari Grave-Troll (CMC 5)
4 Insolent Neonate (CMC 1)
4 Narcomoeba (CMC 2)
4 Prized Amalgam (CMC 3)
4 Stinkweed Imp (CMC 3)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Affinity (36 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

3 Memnite (CMC 0)
4 Ornithopter (CMC 0)
4 Signal Pest (CMC 1)
4 Vault Skirge (CMC 2)
3 Etched Champion (CMC 3)
2 Master of Etherium (CMC 3)
4 Blinkmoth Nexus (CMC 0)
4 Inkmoth Nexus (CMC 0)
4 Arcbound Ravager (CMC 2)
4 Steel Overseer (CMC 2)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Abzan (16 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Tarmogoyf (CMC 2)
4 Grim Flayer (CMC 2)
3 Shambling Vent (CMC 0)
2 Scavenging Ooze (CMC 2)
3 Siege Rhino (CMC 4)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Gx Tron (8 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

2 Wurmcoil Engine (CMC 6)
2 Ulamog the Ceaseless Hunger (CMC 11)
2 World Breaker (CMC 7)
2 Spellskite (CMC 2)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Jeskai Control (10 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Snapcaster Mage (CMC 2)
4 Celestial Colonnade (CMC 0)
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn (CMC 15)
1 Vendilion Clique (CMC 3)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Grixis Delver (14 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Delver of Secrets (CMC 1)
4 Snapcaster Mage (CMC 2)
2 Young Pyromancer (CMC 2)
3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang (CMC 6)
1 Gurmag Angler (CMC 7)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Death's Shadow Zoo (15 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Death's Shadow (CMC 1)
4 Monastery Swiftspear (CMC 1)
3 Steppe Lynx (CMC 1)
4 Wild Nacatl (CMC 1)

[/su_spoiler]

[su_spoiler title="Titan Breach (8 creatures)" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

4 Primeval Titan (CMC 6)
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder (CMC 2)

[/su_spoiler]

With 55 unique creatures and 205 total copies, Modern's Tier 1 and Tier 2 decks cover a lot of creature real estate. This is the current environment Fatal Push is stepping into, and it will be our starting point for calculating Push's initial Index.

Our next step is to add these creatures, and their mana-cost bins, to our metagame prevalence table. We'll add four columns: one for the total count of creatures in a given deck, and one each for the number of unconditional hits (0-2 CMC), conditional hits (3-4 CMC), and misses (5+ CMC) in each deck. This will establish the creature landscape across Modern's current top-tier.

Creature Distribution in the 12/2016 Metagame

Deck NameMetagame %Total CreaturesUnconditional Hits
(0-2 CMC)
Conditional Hits
(3-4 CMC)
Misses
(5+ CMC)
Infect9.4%171700
Burn7.7%171700
Jund7.4%161600
Bant Eldrazi7.3%287147
Dredge6.3%241284
Affinity6.1%363123
Abzan4.0%161330
RG Tron3.6%8206
Jeskai Control2.6%10811
Grixis Delver2.4%141004
Death's Shadow Zoo2.4%151500
Titan Breach2.0%4004

Even before "scoring" this table with any formal measure, we can eyeball its vulnerability to Fatal Push. With 205 creatures played across the top-tier decks, a full 148 (72%) are unconditional Push hits. Another 15% are conditional, with only 13% falling in the miss category. From a macro-perspective, that's good news for Push, and we might be tempted to stop there by defining the Push Index as the percentage of creatures in a format which die to the spell (72% or, adding the conditionals, 87%).

Push Index complications

Unfortunately, this misses two key elements of an effective Push Index. First, it's an inaccurate measure of how many creatures Push actually hits in a metagame. Those 205 creatures aren't distributed between 12 decks evenly split with 8.3% shares. Their host decks have shares ranging from 9.4% to 2%. Imagine a world where the 2% deck (pretend it's Gruul Zoo) played around 40 creatures and the 9.4% deck (pretend it's Jeskai Control) played about five. We'd obviously need to weight the 2% deck less than the 9.4% deck. This means we'll need to apply some metagame share-based weighting to these creature counts. Bookmark this: we'll call it the Absolute Push Index later in the article.

Problem number two with this simplified Push Index: it doesn't help us compare Push effectiveness between metagames with more or fewer total creatures throughout the top-tiers. Consider two metagames. In one, it's an aggro-heavy format with 10 top-tier decks, each playing 40 creatures with CMC 0-2. In the second, it's a control-heavy format also with 10 top-tier decks but eight of them are totally creatureless. The remaining two decks are aggro holdouts still running 40 creatures with CMC 0-2. Our rough Push Index would give both metagames a 100% unconditional hit rate, which isn't quite accurate: Fatal Push doesn't do anything against 80% of the decks in that second metagame! Put another bookmark here: this will become our Relative Push Index later on.

To address these problems and get our Absolute/Relative Index calculations, we'll need to dig deeper than just adding the percentages on our table above.

Applying metagame weights

Our first job is to convert the count of creatures in each bin (conditional hits, unconditional hits, misses) into a weighted score. We'll do this by expressing each count as a percentage of the total creatures in its deck, and then multiplying that percentage by the deck's metagame share. For example, Infect has 17 creatures, all of which are unconditional hits. We convert that count of 17 to a score of 1 (i.e. 100% of Infect's 17 total creatures are unconditional hits). We then multiply that score by the deck's share to get its weighted score (i.e. we multiply Infect's score of 1 by its share of 9.4% to get a weighted score of .094). To keep the numbers manageable, we'll also multiply that final number by 100 so we're not stuck in small decimals.

The table below applies this formula to all our decks above, calculating percentages in columns 3, 4, and 5, and then calculating the weighted score in columns 6, 7, and 8.

Push Index Creature Percentages and Weighted Scores

Deck NameMetagame %Unc. Hits
% of Total
Cond. Hits
% of Total
Misses
% of Total
Unc.
Weight
Cond.
Weight
Misses
Weight
Infect9.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%9.40.00.0
Burn7.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%7.70.00.0
Jund7.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%7.40.00.0
Bant Eldrazi7.3%25.0%50.0%25.0%1.83.71.8
Dredge6.3%50.0%33.3%16.7%3.22.11.1
Affinity6.1%86.1%8.3%8.3%5.30.40.3
Abzan4.0%81.3%18.8%0.0%3.30.80.0
RG Tron3.6%25.0%0.0%75.0%0.90.02.7
Jeskai Control2.6%80.0%10.0%10.0%2.10.30.3
Grixis Delver2.4%71.4%0.0%28.6%1.70.00.7
Death's Shadow Zoo2.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%2.40.00.0
Titan Breach2.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.00.02.0

As a final calculation step, we need to apply an additional modifier to the unconditional hits category. Even though conditional Fatal Push hits should certainly count towards Push's overall effectiveness, we shouldn't weigh them as heavily as an unconditional hit: you don't need any setup to kill a Tarmogoyf. You need at least a fetchland crack to remove Thought-Knot Seer. This begs the question: in what percentage of turns or games can you reliably trigger revolt and use Fatal Push to remove a 3-4 cost creature?

As a rough measure of revolt consistency, I looked at the average number of fetchlands played in black-based, top-finishing lists of top-tier decks: 8.79, rounded to 9 (because you can't really have fractions of cards). I then used the hypergeometric distribution to determine the chances of having at least two fetchlands by turn three, which is often the earliest you need to kill a CMC 3-4 creature. That chance is about 41%. This is the multiplier we'll apply to the conditional hits to weigh them less heavily than the unconditional ones: in essence, a conditional hit becomes an unconditional hit by turn three in about 41% of games. In reality, it's probably a bit more if we include hands with two non-fetches and one fetch, dead creatures we use to trigger revolt, and games where you don't need to remove the creature until after turn three. But 41% is a good low-end estimate for the share of games where you can voluntarily trigger revolt and kill a 3-4 mana creature.

Push Index Final Weighted Scores

Deck NameUnconditional
Weighted Score
Conditional
Weighted Score
Misses
Weighted Score
Infect9.40.00.0
Burn7.70.00.0
Jund7.40.00.0
Bant Eldrazi1.81.51.8
Dredge3.20.91.1
Affinity5.30.10.3
Abzan3.30.30.0
RG Tron0.90.02.7
Jeskai Control2.10.10.3
Grixis Delver1.70.00.7
Death's Shadow Zoo2.40.00.0
Titan Breach0.00.02.0

If you think the 41% chance under- or overestimates the scenarios in which you can voluntarily trigger revolt, feel free to use a different multiplier for the unconditional hits column! Also, let me know in the comments what alternative you used.

From scores to a finalized Index

Scores? Check. Weights? Check. Now, let's set up the final Index.

Let's start with the bookmarked Absolute Push Index from earlier (the measure of Push effectiveness in a vacuum). We'll express this as the sum of our unconditional and conditional weighted scores, divided by the total possible score in the metagame. In this case, the total possible score is 61.2, i.e. the sum of all the top-tier metagame shares. As another example, if the top-tier decks collectively made up 65% of the format, the total possible score would be 65.

Adding up our scores we get:

Absolute Push Index (score 1): 48.2 (relative to the entire metagame)
Absolute Push Index (score 2): 77.6 (relative to the top-tier metagame)

Stated another way, in a metagame where these top-tier decks make up 61.2% of the format, Push is going to unconditionally kill creatures in at least 48.2% of your total matchups. More importantly, it will unconditionally remove creatures in 77.6% of your top-tier matchups (48.2/61.2).

This is an excellent hit-rate. For reference, the hit-rate in a metagame where every single top-tier deck played exclusively 0-2 mana creatures would be 100%, which is a mere 23% higher than our current rating of 77.6%. A metagame where every single top-tier deck played exclusively 3-4 mana creatures would only have a 41% hit rating (or whatever other multiplier you used for the conditional hits). Our current metagame has a Push Index almost twice that. Push sure looks hot going into 2017.

But what about our Relative Push Index? You'll remember from our earlier bookmarks that the Absolute Push Index is great at telling us how effective Push is in a vacuum, but isn't a strong measure when comparing two distinct metagames. Enter the Relative Push Index. This will be expressed as the Absolute Push Index multiplied by the total number of creatures in the top-tier metagame. For this particular sample, that was 205 total creatures.

Relative Push Index: 161.4

This Index will help us compare Push's effectiveness in any given metagame to Push's historic effectiveness in any other metagame. Here's an example.

Imagine it's September 2017 and you are deciding how many Pushes to run in your Abzan deck. You look back to February 2017 and you see the Relative Push Index was, say, 165. You remember that Push was spectacular in February 2017, and you ran the full playset. Next, you look back to June 2017 where the Relative Push Index (which you would calculate) was only 135. You remember Push was pretty bad in June because Bant Eldrazi, Grixis Control/Midrange, and Gx Tron were everywhere; indeed, you shaved your Push count to just 1 in the maindeck and 1 in the board. Finally, you calculate the Relative Push Index for September 2017 and find that it's a solid 160. Based on this, you would probably include as many Pushes as you used during the February 2017 metagame when the Index was at 165. Or maybe include 3 in the main and 1 in the board, if you're worried about the slight drop. Either way, this would help you guide your Push decision when building decks.

Using and adapting the Push Index

Ultimately, you can use the Push Index as a data-driven tool to determine when Push is good and how many you should (or shouldn't) run. I suggest you calculate the Push Index in every metagame update for 2017, comparing those numbers to your own experience with Push and using that data to make informed deckbuilding and sideboarding decisions. I suspect that a 161.4 Relative Push Index means that most decks that want Push should be running 2-3 copies in the maindeck, but I could easily see that number pushing up to 3-4. I'll keep checking in on the Index as decks adapt to the new card (more Bant Eldrazi and Gx Tron?) and players run more creatures to dodge the spell (Tasigurs and Anglers are looking hotter than ever).

Banlist update thoughts

Our January 2017 Modern banlist update came a week early and it's a stunner: Golgari Grave-Troll and Gitaxian Probe are banned in Modern. To say nothing of Standard's upheaval (farewell, Emrakul, the Promised End, Smuggler's Copter, and Reflector Mage), this update promises to make a sizable impact on competitive Magic. My original draft of this article had some banlist thoughts including a Troll ban prediction, but I'm changing gears to offer quick roundup thoughts on Modern's latest seismic event.

  • Good riddance, Golgari Grave-Troll 
    Dredge is not a turn four rule violator. It also doesn't occupy an objectively oppressive share. Unfortunately, Dredge has reduced Modern diversity by forcing players to run 4-5 or even more graveyard hate cards in their sideboards. In turn, this has had the disgusting effect of pushing out all other graveyard decks from the top-tier. Remember Abzan Company? Living End? Grishoalbrand? All these decks are in Tier 3 or lower, and that's a major loss for format diversity. Given these circumstances, Troll's banning was unsurprising and warranted. I applaud Wizards for depowering the deck without killing it: Dredge should remain at least a Tier 2 deck, with intermittent Tier 1 appearances. Meanwhile, other graveyard decks should return to the format, and the Dredge sideboard subgame should diminish. This ban is an overall win for metagame diversity and Modern.
  • Mixed outcomes after Gitaxian Probe's ban
    I'm less happy about Probe's demise. On the one hand, it's a slick limited-ends ban that depowers a variety of fast, linear, non-interactive decks without gutting any of them: see Infect, Death's Shadow Zoo, and UR Prowess in the top tiers alone. Looking only at that impact, it should slow down Modern while allowing those faster decks to remain somewhat viable. On the other hand, Probe's removal is a big hit for reactive, fair, interactive Delver of Secrets decks, which I imagine is an undesired but foreseen consequence of the ban. Perhaps Wizards is banking on Fatal Push picking up the Delver slack? More likely, they felt it was a necessary cost to push back top-tier fast decks. As a whole, this is a clear issue of addressing the symptom of a disease, not its cause. The cause is a lack of generic answers and policing cards/strategies in Modern. The symptom is fast, top-tier linear decks which fair decks can't restrain. As such, the Probe ban will go down as yet another victim of Wizards' inability to print viable Modern answers and interaction. Push is a good step in the right direction. This kind of ban, however, is not—particularly with all the ensuing ban mania it will promote.
  • Looking ahead, unban Preordain or Stoneforge Mystic by April 2017
    As hinted at above, Modern needs built-in answers for fast, linear, non-interactive decks. Those answers cannot be bans. This format cannot keep enduring bans; it is becoming increasingly difficult to tell new players it's a safe investment when we average one to two bans per year. Wizards must introduce new cards to empower internal answers. Yes, Fatal Push is an excellent step in this direction), but we need more Pushes, as well as reprints (Prohibit, please?) and unbans. The only two unbans which address this standing need are Preordain, for interactive decks to dig for answers, and Stoneforge Mystic, to deploy a Batterskull roadblock against decks that refuse interaction. Jordan has already written extensively on the cantrip, and I agree with most of what he said. I'll also emphasize that Preordain was initially banned because it powered up blue-red combo decks, all of which are now gone. Indeed, the card is safer still with Probe out of the format. As for Mystic, David has been testing the card for months and it seems much safer than many have alleged. Wizards should take a look at both cards and unban one by April.

I'm giving these thoughts at the tail-end of an article, taking the risk of provoking controversy without adequate room to explain these ideas. I'm somewhat bummed that the banlist update came early and will likely divert attention from my Push Index analysis to the ever-polarizing topic of the banlist, but that's Modern as you know it. Welcome back, I guess?

Thanks for reading and, again, it's good to be back writing about Magic's best format. Although I won't write as regularly as in 2015 or most of 2016, I'll do my best to keep some data-driven articles coming as we enjoy what looks to be an exciting 2017 for Modern. Hit me up in the comments with Push questions and ideas, or the inevitable ban and unban conversation, and I'll talk to you all soon!

January 9th Banned and Restricted List Update

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It was all over social media yesterday, but in case you missed it, WotC announced some serious changes to Standard and Modern.

Effective Date: January 20, 2017

Magic Online Effective Date: January 11, 2017

Standard:

Emrakul, the Promised End is banned.

Smuggler's Copter is banned.

Reflector Mage is banned.

Modern:

Gitaxian Probe is banned.

Golgari Grave-Troll is banned.

The list of all banned and restricted cards, by format, is here. The full list of cards banned in Modern is here. The full list of cards banned in Standard is here.

Next B&R Announcement: March 13, 2017

Expect to see some serious decline in the prices of these cards and a number of cards featured in decks enabled by them. I can guarantee we'll have some great Insider tips along these lines, and some ideas for where to invest from here.

If you sell now you're only going to get garbage prices, so I would hold on to the banned cards specifically. Emrakul, the Promised End definitely has casual and Cube appeal, and Smuggler's Copter is a great Cube card that sees play in Frontier for whatever that's worth. Grave-Troll will take a big hit due to the fact that it has become rather obscure in eternal formats, though it should only get harder to come by as time passes, and I would only sell if I needed the money.

At any rate, I believe that these changes are net positive, and I'm excited to see how they play out. It's also worth noting that in addition to announcements prior to every Pro Tour, there will also be a second announcement made five weeks after every Pro Tour on that Monday. This will be a great way to keep formats from being broken for long periods of time after the game's greatest minds break them. As such, I would keep my eye on the new Saheeli Rai combo and whether or not it destroys the PT, lest it gets banned after the fact.

Modern Metagame Breakdown: 12/1/2016 – 12/31/2016

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Today finally brings an update to the metagame breakdown, with data from December. I know many of our readers have been very disappointed to see these fall by the wayside—I want to explain briefly why I've been lagging on them, and reassure you that they will be back in full force for 2017. I recently began a new job that has made it hard to keep up, but my schedule is much more settled now, and you can expect regular metagame updates on time again. That said, this one will be a little different, since the greater lag time will mean a bigger jump in metagame shifts. I decided a clean break was better than trying to slog through three months of data (and delaying the publication further). For now, let's see how Modern has changed in the intervening months. (Spoiler alert: it's the same format we know and love.) I'll close with some discussion of the Golgari Grave-Troll and Gitaxian Probe bannings that just came down the line from WoTC.

December in many ways shows Modern in characteristic form. Infect is the clear top dog, much as many pros have claimed, clocking in at 10.2%. While this is significantly higher than the next archetype in line (Jund, surprise, surprise, at 7.5%) it also doesn't represent an unassailable position. Earlier in 2016 we saw several months where other archetypes posted similar levels of dominance. September saw Bant Eldrazi at the top with 9.2%, whereas in July and August Jund hovered around the 10% mark—with an even bigger drop-off to the second-place deck than we see today with Infect.

Even if these months are a ways behind us, the takeaway is the same: Modern is in a (relatively) healthy place, and today's best archetype might be tomorrow's second fiddle. That said, Infect's dominance is of much more concern than Jund's or Eldrazi's, in accordance with the turn four rule laid out by Wizards. My prediction was for no changes to the banlist—a position refuted earlier today with Wizards's B&R announcement—but the data from December clearly show Infect in dangerous territory. We'll discuss more below why its dominance is more actionable than that of Jund or Eldrazi, and why Dredge got the axe alongside it.

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Data Collection Methods

First off, a reminder of our methods for collecting metagame data and the sources involved. For paper events we're drawing from 62 tournaments the world over for a total of 426 decks. Major events from December were the Star City Games Atlanta Invitational and an SCG Classic in the same city. To cast a wider net, these have been amalgamated with major event data from November (an SCG Open in Columbus and two Classics in Baltimore and Knoxville), which do not appear in the paper data at large.

Finally, the SCG Players' Championship contained a minor Modern portion, which we reported as a major paper event. As the Modern portion only comprised three rounds, I only included decks that managed a perfect record, for three entries total. In any case, these three decks were unlikely to shift things fundamentally, especially since they were all Tier 1 and 2 mainstays (Burn, Dredge, and Grixis Delver).

MTGO events included three PTQs. One was the traditional fare run in the online client, while the other two were Regional PTQs made available to qualified players who found travel to a live event difficult or undesirable. In addition, we have the regular battery of Competitive League finishes (one per day) for a total of 34 events and 398 decks.

All in all, we're working with 824 decks total in December. These were weighted using Sheridan's formula to generate the tierings you see below.

Tier 1

Tier 1 decks are the ones you should expect to face at every Modern tournament. Make sure you show up to your local events and Grand Prix alike with a well thought-out plan to beat these decks—you’re going to face them often, and each one is resilient enough to fight through a lackluster counterplan. Of course another avenue is to pick one of these up yourself, which I generally suggest for anyone not well-versed in a lower-tier deck. Whether you know one of these archetypes inside-out and can tune a killer sideboard for the field, or you want to pick up something new and wing it, these decks certainly have the chops to get the job done.

Tier 1: 12/1/16 - 12/31/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
Paper %MTGO %
Infect10.2%8.2%8.5%
Jund7.5%8.9%8.3%
Burn6.9%7.1%7.3%
Dredge6.8%5.7%8.0%
Affinity5.3%5.7%2.8%
Bant Eldrazi4.3%3.2%3.5%
Gx Tron3.8%4.1%5.1%

The biggest story here is obviously Infect's uncontested position atop the standings. Much like with Jund's reign earlier this year, I believe we would have seen the metagame adapt to respond to Infect's dominance, but the bannings will make it hard to disentangle the different effects in the coming months. In any case, many of the best players in the game have been calling Infect the best deck in Modern, and for December at least it appears to be true. The arrival of Blossoming Defense most likely has played a part, but so has Dredge's rise. Infect is, of course, one of the best answers to the graveyard menace, which is still posting a 6.8% metagame share despite the giant target on its head and the supposed effectiveness of the hate cards.

The rest of Tier 1 is the typical offering we've come to expect in Modern. Burn and Affinity complement Dredge and Infect in the aggro spot, with Jund and Bant Eldrazi checking linear aggro, and Tron pulling up the rear as a check on midrange. Abzan has fallen off, but it's hovering just beneath the Tier 1 cutoff at 3.8%. Like I said, same old Modern.

Tron, for its part, has exhibited significant innovation over the last few months, reflected in my new reporting of all green Tron variants under "Gx Tron." This includes four different builds of the deck, which I contend are fundamentally the same archetype: Mono-G, RG, GW, and newcomer BG Tron as pioneered by Joe Lossett. In each of these cases, the main difference in lists is which removal/interaction spell they've chosen to run—Fog, Lightning Bolt, Path to Exile, and Collective Brutality each respond to different metagame conditions, but the main shell of the deck remains constant. Compare this to something like Abzan vs. Jund, which ends up shifting a large number of cards in the change over to a different splash color, or the other Tron decks (Mono-U and Eldrazi Tron) which are pretty clearly distinct.

As it stands, dividing the green Tron decks further we see that the white version has cannibalized a chunk of RG's traditional metagame share. At 2.1% and 1.3% respectively, these two versions handily dwarf the black variant's 0.4% share. I attribute the rise of white to Path to Exile's superior ability to handle the threat base presented by linear aggro. With the exception of Affinity, this is Tron's traditional Achilles heel, and it has had to adapt to the ascent of Dredge, Infect, Death's Shadow Zoo, and UR Prowess during the course of 2016. It will be interesting to see how BG Tron develops in the coming months (I think it's too new for players to have adopted it en masse at this time) but if Infect recedes in the wake of the ban we may see a corresponding decrease in Collective Brutality's stock.

Tier 1 Changes: September to December

Deck% Change
September to December
Overall Meta %
12/1 - 12/31
Overall Meta %
9/1 - 9/30
Infect+2.6%10.2%7.6%
Jund+1.0%7.5%6.5%
Burn-1.2%6.9%8.1%
Dredge+2.6%6.8%4.2%
Affinity-2.2%5.3%7.5%
Bant Eldrazi-4.9%4.3%9.2%
Gx Tron+0.3%3.8%3.5%

If these differences look large, remember that we're looking at a change over several months. Infect and Dredge are up (confirming the community's perception of their strength), Bant Eldrazi and Affinity are down. I'm a little perplexed to see Burn lose share as Infect rises, but it's hard to see exactly how this went down over the last couple months, and in any case it's still posting a robust 6.9%. Again, regarding Dredge, it's notable that the total share has increased over the last few months, when such powerful sideboard cards are available and it's on everyone's radar. Dredge was already doing pretty well before the release of Kaladesh gave it an explosive new tool in Cathartic Reunion. We'll touch more on the implications of this in the discussion below on the banlist changes.

Bant Eldrazi's 5% fall is obviously the biggest news here. While it occupied the top spot in September, this change may be partly attributable to another deck we'll see below in Tier 2, Eldrazi Tron. In any case, the combined metagame shares of both Eldrazi decks still represent a marked drop since September. As far as I'm concerned, Jund is the more robust, less hateable midrange deck overall, but at 4.3% of the metagame, Bant Eldrazi is no slouch.

Tier 2

Tier 2 decks are not as omnipresent as the Tier 1 crop, but they still show up in hearty numbers at the typical tournament. In many ways this tier is the lifeblood of Modern, whence its diversity and “play anything” reputation stems. If these decks aren’t dominating at the moment, they’re still capable of crushing a tournament on any given day—and many of them have been Tier 1 at some point in the past or will in the future. The better acquainted you are with any one of these archetypes, the better choice it represents, and if one of them is your specialty there’s a strong argument to stay the course and keep sleeving it up.

As for preparing to beat Tier 2 decks, you don’t need to dedicate specific sideboard space or do backflips to make your matchups favorable, but at minimum have a plan. You won’t face all of these decks in a tournament, but you’re all but certain to face at least some of them. Welcome to Modern!

Tier 2: 12/1/16 - 12/31/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
Paper %MTGO %
Abzan3.7%3.2%6.0%
Death's Shadow Zoo3.6%1.6%5.8%
Lantern Control3.1%2.1%2.5%
Titan Shift2.8%2.3%1.8%
Grixis Delver2.6%2.7%3.5%
RW Prison2.3%1.8%3.0%
UR Prowess2.2%2.1%3.0%
Grixis Control/Midrange2.2%1.6%2.5%
Merfolk1.8%2.3%0.5%
Jeskai Nahiri1.7%2.1%1.5%
Titan Breach1.7%2.1%1.8%
Ad Nauseam1.6%2.7%2.0%
Eldrazi Tron1.6%0.2%3.3%

Some shake-ups to Tier 2 have certainly occurred over the last few months. Before we get to those, there were a few minor movements in more established archetypes. We see Eldrazi Tron become an archetype in its own right with a 1.6% share, possibly supplanting some of the Bant Eldrazi decks as mentioned above. Death's Shadow Zoo has risen to about double its share in September. Finally, the RG Valakut variants seem to have switched places for some reason. In September, Titan Breach held the larger share (3.4% to Titan Shift's 1.6%) whereas now Titan Shift comes out on top (2.8% to 1.7%). To me this just drives home the idea that the two Valakut strategies, despite making use of a slightly different spell suite, play fundamentally the same game and occupy similar metagame space. The one that comes out on top in any given month may be due to little more than which is in vogue.

The changes to Tier 2 are really highlighted by the arrival of some new players: Lantern Control, RW Prison, and UR Prowess. The former has been a known Modern deck for some time, often championed by pros who have claimed it's underplayed. RW Prison and UR Prowess are newer decks, and their metagame share here indicates they are real contenders.

  • Lantern Control benefits from new tools. The bizarre prison deck brought into the limelight by Zac Elsik a couple years back has benefited from two prominent printings in 2016: Collective Brutality and Blooming Marsh. Brutality helps the deck shore up some of the its major weaknesses. It kills utility creatures that can laugh off an Ensnaring Bridge, snags interaction pieces that have snuck under the draw-step lock, or gains some critical life against Burn. That's a ton of value in a two-mana spell, especially when the discard is an additional boon for a deck aiming to get hellbent. Blooming Marsh is a lot less sexy, to be sure, but it's no coincidence that most Lantern lists have adopted it as a four-of. When you're trying to drag the game out to infinity without playing any traditional defenses or creatures of your own, life loss from a painland adds up fast.

It's possible that metagame conditions are helping Lantern in no small measure, but I can't for the life of me imagine what the major difference between December and September would be. Tier 1 hasn't really changed very much, after all. I'd be interested to hear in the comments if anyone has insight into how Lantern might be well positioned currently, but for now I'm inclined to believe it's simply a stronger deck than before.

  • Sun and Moon overcomes its middling fringe status. The unlikely control strategy debuted earlier this year under the name "RW Lockdown," and has since come a long way. Yep, it's a red-white control deck. Yep, it has access to both Path and Bolt, the uncontested best removal spells in the format, and chooses to run neither. Yep, it has gradually grown in metagame share to 2.3% in December, falling solidly in Tier 2.

I still feel incredibly awkward about Star City Games' chosen moniker ("Sun" because of the white mana symbol? Wouldn't that encompass tons of other decks too?), but I'll concede it's catchy as all get-out. I still like calling it RW Prison, to differentiate it from other midrange control decks and highlight the particular way it plans to win: with cheese-you-out permanents extraordinaire Blood Moon and Chalice of the Void. We've long known as Modern players and commentators that Blood Moon is a beating in any fetch/shock format trying to max out on splashes. Chalice, on the other hand, has been pretty underplayed during much of Modern's reign in my opinion. We lack the Sol lands that enable its early deployment in Legacy and Vintage (although Simian Spirit Guide does its best impression), but a format as efficient as Modern certainly boasts a large number of one-drops—making Chalice a potential ten-for-one (or more!) against any number of strategies.

Personally I'd still be leery of picking up this deck—mainly because it's a control deck lacking library manipulation—but it obviously has the goods to put up reasonable finishes. Lock pieces against combo and control, check. Sweepers galore against the aggro decks, check. Quick win condition in good old Nahiri fetching Emrakul, check. I suspect we haven't seen the last of RW Prison, even if it is mighty strange to see a red-white deck foregoing both Path and Bolt.

  • Death's Shadow Blue, the other Battle Rage deck. Another major story in 2016 was the rise of Death's Shadow Aggro, and the wider adoption of Temur Battle Rage and Become Immense. Infect has long used the delve spell, but players started to figure out other uses for it, including decks that could port over the full Standard combo. Eventually, someone realized that Monastery Swiftspear was contributing enough wins to the Death's Shadow deck and asked, "What if we just cut all that other stuff?" Cue the appearance of "Death's Shadow Blue," or UR Prowess. Back in September it was rounding out the bottom of Tier 3 at 0.3%, but by December its share has grown to 2.2%.

While this deck usually doesn't have access to Become Immense itself (although green-splash versions do exist), it can cobble together the necessary power with Mutagenic Growth and of course the prowess mechanic itself. The creatures lost in Tarmogoyf, Steppe Lynx, Wild Nacatl and Death's Shadow are replaced with Thing in the Ice and Kiln Fiend. What you end up with is a less explosive deck, but one that's both more forgiving and less susceptible to Burn. My guess is that the traditional Death's Shadow deck still outclasses this one—especially if you're a world-class player who can navigate its treacherous lines—but UR Prowess has come into its own.

Tier 3

Tier 3 in Modern houses the decks with fringe potential, or those which are simply in a poor position in the current metagame. These decks range from relatively strong decks with scant adoption in the player base, to fragile decks that crumble to variance while mainstays like Burn or Jund draw consistently round after round. That said, Modern draws from an absurd well of card power, and each of these decks can give you a run for your money. You don’t need perfect knowledge of everything they’re doing, but the difference between familiarity and complete ignorance can definitely determine the outcome of a match.

Playing these decks isn’t advised, unless you know them inside-out or have some specific reason why you think they’re underrepresented. Of course, they are also worth a look as fun decks to battle if you’re less concerned about winning and want to delve into the deeper end of the Modern pool.

Tier 3: 12/1/16 - 12/31/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
Paper %MTGO %
UW Control/Midrange1.4%3.2%0.8%
Jeskai Midrange1.3%1.4%1.3%
Blue Moon1.2%0.9%0.3%
Eldrazi and Taxes1.1%1.4%1.0%
Amulet Titan1.0%0.5%1.3%
Elves1.0%1.6%0.8%
Kiki Chord1.0%1.1%0.5%
Griselbrand1.0%0.9%0.8%
Jeskai Aggro1.0%1.1%0.3%
Bushwhacker Zoo1.0%1.1%0.3%
Abzan Company/Evolution0.9%1.6%0.0%
Living End0.8%0.7%0.8%
Soul Sisters0.8%0.0%1.8%
Knightfall0.7%0.7%0.5%
Mardu Control/Midrange0.7%0.5%0.5%
Scapeshift0.7%0.5%0.5%
Mono U Tron0.6%0.9%1.0%
Pyromancer Ascension0.5%0.5%0.0%

As with the first two tiers, Tier 3 bears a lot of resemblance to its profile from three months ago. A few newcomers from back then are still posting similar numbers, like Amulet Titan, Knightfall, and Pyromancer Ascension. I think it's fair to say these decks are here to stay, albeit not likely to take the metagame by storm anytime soon. By now the community has had time to try them out, tweak them, and put them through their paces—it appears they have what it takes to succeed with some consistency, but not to excel.

Other than that, we see UW and Jeskai strategies of various stripes continue to post results in December, while Eldrazi and Taxes and Abzan Company have slid down the rankings slightly since September. Blue Moon is also back. Let's take a look at each.

  • UWx midrange is splintered across several decks. Jeskai Nahiri (which we've often reported as Jeskai Control) is a well-established archetype that varies only slightly in build from pilot to pilot. Jeskai midrange decks have been a much bigger challenge to classify, presenting a wide range of variation that really falls along a continuum from midrange to control. This is all complicated by the relatively new arrival of blue-white midrange and control decks, which share a lot in common with their more storied Jeskai siblings.

For now I'm grouping the blue-white decks together in one category—like the non-Nahiri Jeskai decks, it can be hard to differentiate between the two. UW Control tends to run more spells like Cryptic Command, Sphinx's Revelation, and planeswalkers. UW Midrange makes more prominent use of creatures like Restoration Angel, Spell Queller, Kitchen Finks, and Snapcaster Mage. These decks (and their Jeskai corollaries) are sometimes reported under the name "Flash," and that's probably an apt description of their play pattern. There appears to be a pretty smooth gradient between the more controlling and more "flashy" builds at this time—perhaps time and testing will sift them out into more defined archetypes, as we saw with Valakut strategies last year. In any case, it should be obvious that these decks are competing with each other for metagame share—although I do consider Lightning Bolt and Nahiri, the Harbinger two pretty strong arguments for the superiority of Jeskai.

One final note on Jeskai decks: note the first appearance here of Jeskai Aggro, which manages to claim a 1% share all on its own. This is the Mantis Rider deck, which appears to have debuted with a close-to-consensus build (and occupies a very different metagame position). The deck plays other aggressive creatures like Goblin Guide and Stormchaser Mage, with Snapcasters at the top of the curve to flash back a lethal Lightning Helix or the like. These are pretty clearly distinct from the Jeskai Prowess deck, which is much more closely aligned with UR Prowess. The latter two could well be grouped under the same archetype if we were so inclined, as white provides little more than a splash for Helix, and sometimes Monastery Mentor.

  • Eldrazi and Taxes slides farther down the rankings. In past updates I've called this deck Death and Taxes and grouped it together with other Leonin Arbiter/Thalia, Guardian of Thraben decks. Practically speaking, the black-white Eldrazi version is the de facto consensus build, with mono-white, GW, and occasionally UW versions appearing much more infrequently. Furthermore, especially when we look at the green-white decks, there's a ton of variation and an unclear difference between GW Hatebears and GW Aggro. For now I prefer to report them separately as Eldrazi and Taxes and Hatebears. My theory is that Thalia simply pairs better with Thought-Knot Seer et.al. than with Noble Hierarch and Collected Company, and a prison-like creature deck gets a pretty big shot in the arm from giant walking Thoughtseizes and the board-dominating Eldrazi Displacer. Add Tidehollow Sculler and Wasteland Strangler into the mix, and I'm hard-pressed to see how a board-control deck would rather give all that up for a clunky beatstick like Loxodon Smiter. Either way, it doesn't seem like a great time for Thalia in general.
  • Green-based toolbox strategies continue to languish. Kiki Chord and Abzan Company have been dropping off gradually for some time, and since September we've seen the Abzan shells shed about half their metagame share. Now Abzan Company and Evolution decks combined only make up 0.9% of the field, while Kiki-Jiki Chord decks add in another 1%. Most of the experimentation with Eldritch Evolution seems to have run its course, with most Abzan players returning to the traditional duo of Collected Company and Chord of Calling. Kiki Chord still uses the Eldritch card, however, so it doesn't appear that its adoption was purely conventional, or unwarranted. Now that Dredge is being nerfed, it will be interesting to see if the toolbox strategies (which rely at least partially on graveyard shenanigans) can make a comeback.
  • Madcap Moon rears its head. Kaladesh introduced a brand new combo to Modern in the form of Madcap Experiment and Platinum Emperion. The way the timing works, you can reveal any number of cards to the Experiment and it won't hit you with the damage until Emperion is already in play. A couple other decks have tried to adopt the combo (RG Ponza, Titan Breach) but it seems to be finding the most success in Blue Moon. Like many control decks in Modern, Blue Moon has the age-old problem of losing the topdeck war after stabilizing. Perhaps like Jeskai Nahiri before it, its newfound win condition has been responsible for putting it back on the Tier 3 map at 1.2%. That said, Blue Moon was posting similar numbers back in June, so maybe metagame conditions have become favorable again.

Banned & Restricted Changes

Finally, let me touch briefly on the changes to the banlist Wizards announced earlier today. If you somehow don't know by now, Gitaxian Probe and Golgari Grave-Troll are no more in Modern. I had already planned a couple articles on banlist predictions and the philosophy behind the Modern format for the coming weeks, and this means I have some more to think on. The announcement has obviously precluded banlist speculation, but we have a lot to discuss about what it all means moving forward.

The first thing to note is that neither Infect nor Dredge were putting up the kind of format-warping percentages of the most recently banned offender, Eye of Ugin. Infect was far-and-away the best deck in December, but so was Jund in July and August. Both claimed around 10% of the field during their height. Dredge is behind Burn and Jund in the month of December. So if these decks aren't crushing diversity or crowding other decks out of the format, why did they get nerfed?

For Infect, it's a clear application of the turn four rule. Remember, for a deck to qualify as an offender is this area, it must not just be capable of turn-three wins in theory. It has to do that with a modicum of consistency, and be resilient enough to withstand hate aimed at it. The likes of Grishoalbrand are far from meeting the banhammer's wrath, as decks like that simply don't put up the metagame shares to be considered problematic. Infect, on the other hand, was highly lauded by a wealth of pros and grinders as the best deck in the format, confirmed roundly by its share of the December metagame. And those turn-three kills are real (turn two much less so, one of the reasons I found calls for a Mutagenic Growth ban a little odd). The issue isn't so much that Infect can do it, it's that it does do it—sometimes through significant disruption. The other day at my local game store I ended a hapless opponent on turn three through his on-curve Thalia. Turn one Noble Hierarch, turn two land, Blighted Agent, turn three land, Growth, Become Immense. Good game (or not).

This is just a textbook case of a turn four rule violation. Infect certainly has some bad matchups such as Burn, Jund, and Abzan, and beating it is possible if you choose to pilot one of those decks. But its ability to win before the allowed time frame with consistency means an enormous pressure placed on other decks—one Wizards deemed too oppressive. Note that they didn't ban one of the cards that contributes most to Infects speed per se, but rather a tool that lets it win through disruption. They've endeavored not to kill the deck, but simply to make it more fair, and easier to combat. I assume this means that they believe less perfect information in the hands of Infect pilots will lead to more blowouts via Path to Exile, Deflecting Palm, Blessed Alliance, Fog, etc.

Golgari Grave-Troll is another story. The Dredge deck can rarely win on turn three, but it can definitely create an insurmountable advantage by then. While Infect is susceptible to particular archetypes, Dredge folds to particular cards: Surgical Extraction, Rest in Peace, Ravenous Trap, etc. But just like Infect, Dredge has managed to put up numbers over and over in spite of the relatively large target on its head. If it isn't in violation of the turn rule itself, it creates the same kind of pressure on any lower-tier deck trying to compete. Dedicate sideboard space or perish. Or perish anyway, because Dredge is strong even through the hate.

Wizards must have believed the warping effect of Dredge in the format was pretty significant, as they end up with some egg on their face having unbanned Grave-Troll a few years earlier. I've long claimed that I think the deck is an abomination, so I'm happy to see their uncounterable, zero-mana, repeatable draw-six removed from the format. The deck probably won't disappear entirely, but I expect it not to hold onto the Tier 1 status it has enjoyed. Infect is much more likely to weather the banning storm, although new kid on the block Fatal Push is certain to have something to say on that matter as well.

Back on Track

As I said in the introduction, I will be working very hard to address everyone's concerns here at Modern Nexus in the coming year. This means more regular metagame updates, Monday articles, and greater attention paid to quantitative analysis. It also means the roll-out of the primers. We have made substantial progress on those, but I want to make sure to put the right foot forward when we publish them, so I've delayed making anything public. Expect something concrete on that front this spring.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you'll continue to do so in the new year.

Insider: MTG Observations from GP Louisville

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At last it was reckoning day. This past weekend I traveled the painless two hours required to attend Grand Prix Louisville. This was the culminating moment for my MTG portfolio. The moment when I would make critical decisions about my investments in Magic going forward.

As it turns out, I didn’t make too many dramatic changes after all. Sure, my trade binder was reduced to nothing but a few speculative purchases such as foil Temple Bell and numerous Beck // Calls. But when it comes to my investments—my Old School and Vintage cards—very little changed.

In fact, I even strengthened my investments in a few strategic areas based on observations made throughout the weekend-long event. In addition, I also noticed a couple other noteworthy trends at the dealer tables. Allow me to explain.

Long Live Old School

Naturally, my eyes tended to drift most frequently to the Old School cards in dealer cases throughout the weekend. The fact that dealers even had Old School cards in their cases is a major testament to the vitality of the format. One and a half years ago while I was browsing for ‘93/’94 cards at Grand Prix Las Vegas, I found almost nothing on display for the format.

I even remember asking numerous vendors if they had played Unlimited and Beta stuff for sale, and only one vendor in the entire room had a smattering of played Old School stuff in a random box tucked behind the counter. I also remember there were probably a total of three JuzĂĄm Djinns for sale at all the vendor booths combined.

There was an error retrieving a chart for JuzĂĄm Djinn

In Louisville, things were extremely different. The largest nod to Old School’s legitimacy was the fact that Star City Games had an entire section of their case dedicated to played Old School cards. We’re talking everything ranging from Legends Spirit Link to HP Beta Birds of Paradise. They even had played Unlimited cards in their case, which typically draws little attention from the speculation crowd if not for demand in ‘93/’94.

Other vendors even had a smattering of useful Alpha and Beta Old School cards, as well as the heavy hitters from Arabian Nights, Legends, and Antiquities. My favorite part: it seemed like almost every vendor had at least one or two Juzåms for sale. At last, vendors are recognizing the healthy demand for these cards.

Channel Fireball had some of the best buy prices on Old School in the room. But I will also point out that I sold a few MP and HP cards to Alter Reality Games and was very pleased with their offers. Not only do vendors recognize the legitimacy of the format, but they also are paying well even on played copies of the cards—a testament to the demand from actual players and not just collectors of these extremely rare cards.

I took the opportunity to actually build upon my Old School investment by upgrading a couple of cards in my deck to Alpha or Beta. I continue to believe in this format’s player base and encourage participation. But I will again caution against speculation here.

Not only is it unhealthy for the format, but it also reduces accessibility, which in turn deters newcomers and reduces demand for Old School cards across the board. To speculate here is to risk locking yourself into a long period of time with illiquid cards. I would suggest picking up whatever you wish to play with now and nothing more.

On the playing front, the highlight of the weekend for me was most definitely my battle with vocal and prominent Old School player Danny Friedman. He was extremely friendly and seeing his deck was a delight.

Not only was it nearly 100% Alpha (including the Power), but the objective of the deck was hilariously imaginative. It was a control deck built around the objective of flipping as many Chaos Orbs as possible. He accomplishes this by playing Copy Artifact and Guardian Beast to allow for infinite flips. Needless to say the game I lost was one where I wound up with zero permanents in play.

Vintage!

I didn’t play in the main event, but I did participate in my first ever sanctioned Vintage event. While I made a laughable number of misplays, I still enjoyed slinging cardboard with the game’s most powerful cards ever printed.

All I’ll say here is that the Vintage crowd is alive and well. Friday’s two side events brought in nearly 30 Vintage entrants, and both of Saturday’s Vintage events fired as well, despite competition from the main event. Vintage players all seem to me like they have a unique personality and mindset about the game. All I can say is, I’m glad to be numbered among them.

From a finance standpoint, I have decided to hold onto my Vintage deck as an investment. While some cards are at risk of reprint such as Mana Crypt and fetch lands, the upside potential in Reserved List cards such as Tolarian Academy and Yawgmoth's Will makes for an attractive enough proposition. These cards won’t ever get outclassed from a power level standpoint.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tolarian Academy

Standard, Frontier and Modern

This wasn’t a Standard or Modern Grand Prix, so it’s no surprise that discussion around these formats was minimal. When I arrived on site, all the vendors were already sold out of Surgical Extraction, which had been bought out just the night before. I even managed to buylist my copy for ten bucks, roughly double what I had hoped for the day before the event.

Then on Saturday morning when Aether Revolt spoilers went live, the room sold out of Saheeli Rai almost immediately. Prices on the Planeswalker spiked from $5 to $20 instantly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai

But other than the buyouts, I don’t think there was a ton of noteworthy action around Modern. I will take the liberty to insert a jive at Frontier by comparing the number of Old School sections in vendor cases (many) with the number of Frontier sections (zero). Browsing hot lists, it didn’t appear many dealers were eager to pick up Frontier potentials like Collected Company or Anafenza, the Foremost.

In fact, I did see multiple vendors start the weekend with aggressively high buy prices on Khans fetches, only to cross out their numbers and reduce them all by a couple bucks. These are extremely plentiful, and I think it’ll take a bit more than speculation on a rogue format to move the needle.

I would still stay away from buying too deeply here—if Wizards of the Coast decided to make a new format between Modern and Standard, I think they would omit Khans block to keep the format fetch-less.

frontier-image

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

I know there are some very vocal proponents of Frontier on Twitter, but financially speaking I cannot advocate investing here. It’s far too early for an official non-rotating format to be created by Wizards, and I am admittedly speculative of the financiers banging the Frontier drum. Some people are surely genuine about their interest in the format, but consider how some people in the MTG community could benefit financially from hyping Frontier when you look into the format. All I can say is there was no talk of it at the dealer tables
at least not while I was around.

Other General Observations

Every time I attend a Grand Prix, I am absolutely blown away by the net worth of cardboard in the event hall. Not only the high-dollar items, but the countless $5 to $50 cards in the room amaze me. When I first started playing Magic, besides the most iconic and powerful of cards, there were always just a few others worth $20. With the advent of foils, promos, and numerous other introductions, it seems like there are an infinite number of ways to spend $20 on a single card.

To me, this is evidence of two things. One, Magic is a heavily proliferated phenomenon. There are so many ways to enjoy the game, and the variety of cards with real value clearly indicate the existence of significant playerbases for all the various formats. Second, if the secondary market was a stock, it would have a multi-million-dollar market cap. Seeing so much money exchange hands so frequently reminds me how liquid Magic remains. I know this happens at every Grand Prix, but witnessing it first hand was a valuable reminder of the game’s health.

Another detail that became glaringly apparent to me last weekend was the rate at which news spreads thanks to technology. Saturday around noon my friends sent me a DM on Twitter stating that Saheeli Rai was bought out. After rapidly forcing down a mediocre lunch I walked back into the convention center only to find that the card was already sold out everywhere.

There was only one vendor left with copies in stock at the old price and when my friend inquired about them, they checked the price online and quickly upped theirs by 300%. The days of finding arbitrage in real time are pretty much gone unless you do nothing but pay attention to the online market the whole weekend (or get extremely lucky).

I also didn’t find too many mispriced cards in cases. In previous Grand Prix, I usually found some cards selling for less than what another vendor in the room was paying. This never led to huge gains, but the hourly rate of buying a card, walking it over to a different vendor, and selling for an extra dollar or two was always well worth it. Maybe I got to the center too late, or maybe these opportunities just didn’t exist. But the bottom line was, I didn’t find any stellar deals in this fashion.

Lastly, I want to emphasize the value in Star City Games’ Heavily Played case. They are usually fair graders, and while HP is a major turn-off to some players, I often gravitate towards played cards for my decks. If I’m going to shuffle up an Alpha Sol Ring and a ­Beta Demonic Hordes, I would much rather have copies I don’t have to worry about damaging (thereby losing value).

Often times SCG’s HP cards sell for less than TCG pricing for HP—especially on Old School cards. Make sure you stop by this section of their booth at all of their events, especially when you plan on trading cards in to them anyway.

Wrapping It Up

All in all, Grand Prix Louisville was a major success for me. I cashed out of much of my trade binder, which was a primary goal of mine. I also found solid deals on some Old School cards, which I was delighted to pick up. I battled in Vintage, Old School, Commander, and Rainbow Vale pack wars.

Yes, Rainbow Vale pack wars is a thing. It’s not widespread, but I’d encourage you to try it before you knock it. Removing the barrier of getting the right colors to cast spells and adding a dimension of losing lands when playing too aggressively adds a delightful addition to a simple MTG format. The only problem is, this requires a bunch of Rainbow Vales
and those aren’t as cheap anymore.

Also, be aware that my friend is probably driving the price of this card up singlehandedly by purchasing 360 copies for his cube.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rainbow Vale

This was a great start to 2017 for me personally and for Magic as a whole. Seeing the exchanges in the room reinvigorated my interest in MTG finance, and I look forward to keeping up (as best I can with the new baby) throughout the year. While I will be steering clear of Frontier and Modern speculation, I will definitely continue to buy strategically when it comes to Commander staples. Any quick-flip I can make will also be welcome.

I look forward to the year ahead, and I hope you will continue to follow along with me as I ride the roller coaster that is MTG finance.




Sigbits

  • I have been able to sell a few sets of Beck // Call on eBay so far, but I was disappointed to see the lack of interest from vendors at GP Louisville. One vendor I spoke with stated that they purchased many copies at $1 and weren’t interested in buying anymore. I really don’t think this price will stick unless the card proves itself in a large Modern event. In the meantime, I’ll keep trying to sell copies on eBay. SCG is sold out at $1.49, but I don’t even think they’ll increase their price much beyond $3. There’s just not enough real traction
yet.
  • Mana Vault has been printed so many times, yet the card continues to climb in value. According to MTG Stocks, Fourth Edition copies just hit an all-time high. I saw many of these across the vendors at GP Louisville, but they were all priced appropriately. I want to share two observations on this one: first, it’s not on the Reserved List (though a printing would only make sense in Eternal Masters 2018). Second, the buy/sell spread on the card recently tanked, but has slowly been climbing. I don’t think you want to go deep on this one.
  • If you want to go deep on a plentiful card, I think Demonic Tutor is much better. It’s also unlikely to be reprinted in anything but an Eternal Masters set, and copies are really drying up fast. Star City Games has two tournament-legal copies in stock across all printings. The price keeps climbing, and I see nothing that will slow it down in the near-term. Alpha and Beta copies seem like very safe pick-ups here for a long-term investment.

Close to the Edge: Introducing the Push Test

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Many factors determine creature playability. When a format's most popular removal spell is damage-based, toughness becomes one key yardstick. In Modern, x/3 creatures that don't trade with Lightning Bolt at parity, or that can't fulfill one of a few other roles like casting a spell, are said to fail the Bolt Test. As such, they possess limited use in Modern, a format overflowing with the beloved red instant. By now, everyone's heard plenty about Modern's shiny new removal spell, Fatal Push, which may soon introduce a new pressure on the format's creatures.

For the uninitiated, Fatal Push costs a single black mana and destroys any creature with converted mana cost two or lower; with revolt turned on, it destroys creatures that cost up to four. We're already familiar with the Bolt Test and how toughness relates to benchmark creature playability. Today, we'll theorize about the effects Fatal Push could have on that benchmark and on Modern.

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The Push Test

Back in June, Sheridan synthesized from other articles a terrific definition of the Bolt Test. In its unadulterated glory:

1. “Does the creature die to Lightning Bolt at parity? If not, what is the resource difference?”
2. “Does the creature have a game effect even if it immediately dies to Bolt? If so, how valuable and reliable is the effect?”
3. “Does the creature take over the game if it is not Bolted? If so, how quick, consistent, and decisive is that impact?”
4. “If yes to any of the above, the creature might be playable in Modern.”

In creating a Push Test, we can begin by replacing all instances of "Lightning Bolt" in this test with "Fatal Push." Point number one is the most important for Push, since far fewer creatures die to it at parity than die to Lightning Bolt. Tarmogoyf and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet are examples of creatures that pass the Bolt test but still die to Push. In fact, only five of Modern's current Top 50 creatures* (Kitchen Finks, Primeval Titan, World Breaker, Golgari Grave-Troll, Reality Smasher) cannot be killed by Fatal Push. That's a ton of ground covered by one card—and by one mana!

[su_spoiler title="* Modern's Top 50 Creatures" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]Top 50 Most-Played Creatures in Modern
Source: MTGGoldfish, retrieved 1/6/17

Creatures sorted by CMC and numbered by share ranking. An asterisk* delineates creatures whose mana cost is largely irrelevant (Simian Spirit Guide, Street Wraith) or which almost always cost fewer mana than listed.

0-mana creatures

  • 37. Ornithopter
  • 46. Memnite

1-mana creatures

  • 2. Noble Hierarch
  • 3. Monastery Swiftspear
  • 10. Glistener Elf
  • 12. Goblin Guide
  • 14. Wild Nacatl
  • 17. Insolent Neonate
  • 26. Death's Shadow
  • 29. Delver of Secrets
  • 36. Signal Pest
  • 45. Grim Lavamancer

2-mana creatures

  • 1. Tarmogoyf
  • 5. Spellskite
  • 6. Scavenging Ooze
  • 7. Snapcaster Mage
  • 8. Dark Confidant
  • 11. Blighted Agent
  • 15. Narcomoeba*
  • 16. Bloodghast*
  • 22. Eidolon of the Great Revel
  • 25. Grim Flayer
  • 31. Sakura-Tribe Elder
  • 34. Arcbound Ravager
  • 35. Vault Skirge*
  • 39. Steel Overseer
  • 43. Kiln Fiend
  • 44. Thing in the Ice
  • 48. Kor Firewalker

3-mana creatures

  • 4. Fulminator Mage
  • 9. Kitchen Finks
  • 13. Simian Spirit Guide*
  • 16. Stinkweed Imp
  • 20. Prized Amalgam*
  • 28. Matter Reshaper
  • 32. Eldrazi Displacer
  • 50. Eldrazi Skyspawner

4-mana creatures

  • 21. Thought-Knot Seer
  • 24. Street Wraith*
  • 40. Obstinate Baloth
  • 49. Huntmaster of the Fells

5-mana-plus creatures

  • 23. Reality Smasher
  • 27. Primeval Titan
  • 30. Tasigur, the Golden Fang*
  • 33. Thragtusk
  • 38. Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
  • 41. Wurmcoil Engine
  • 42. Drowner of Hope
  • 47. World Breaker[/su_spoiler]

A two-mana creature is just as dead to Fatal Push as a one-mana creature, but the player resolving Push gains a mana advantage in the exchange. We can therefore say that any two-mana creature without an immediate game effect fails the first two stages (#1 and #2 above) of the Push test. Of the two-drops in the above list, only Sakura-Tribe Elder passes this portion.

Push also has an extra dimension which complicates evaluation: the revolt mechanic. The card has a different effect if a permanent its caster controlled left the battlefield that turn. Fatal Push will always kill one- and two-mana creatures, but it only kills three- and four-mana creatures under revolt, which means it won't unconditionally kill cards like Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet. Ergo, it's harder to categorically say three- and four-drops fail the Push test. We need to examine how often the revolt nuance matters to grasp the limits of Fatal Push.

Three's the Magic Number

Of the three-mana creatures on our current Top 50 list, all of them but Kitchen Finks and Matter Reshaper die cleanly to Lightning Bolt. They also all cast a spell when they enter the battlefield, with the exception of Eldrazi Displacer. Displacer often costs a functional two mana anyway, and it does take over games when unchecked. These three-drops will continue to do exactly the same thing with Push legal in the format.

When it comes to four-drops, we begin to tread shakier ground. Four-drops are just as easy to kill with Fatal Push as three-drops are, so creatures need a great reason to cost one extra mana. Those that don't immediately provide value as many three-drops do, including Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet and some Restoration Angels, risk becoming obsolete with Push around. We can say that any four-mana creature that doesn't provide immediate value, or an overwhelming late-game advantage, fails the Push test.

We can't quite say the same thing about three-drops, since they cost less. Three is the fewest mana one can pay for a creature that dodges Push's vanilla mode, putting them in a unique defensive position relative to Fatal Push. I don't expect little-seen three-drops to suddenly become playable (i.e. Vampire Nighthawk), but I do think already-playable three-drops like Kitchen Finks become slightly better with Push in the format.

As Ryan Overturf noted in his analysis of the card, revolt isn't always magically active because Polluted Delta is a legal Modern card. Modern decks are not built to sandbag fetchlands, and in topdeck wars, tension can emerge between holding up a fetch in case revolt becomes relevant and cracking it for some minor deck thinning and painless access to maximum mana.

Don't Lose Your Head

Cost-checking removal is usually less conditional than damage-based removal when it comes to killing creatures, but pays for this increase in applicability by giving up some flexibility. Unlike with Bolt, you can't Fatal Push your opponent to death.

Abrupt Decay is a notable cost-checking kill spell that sees lots of play, despite other options in black (barring the catch-all Terminate) being brushed aside. Part of the reason for that is Decay's ability to remove any permanent; part of the reason is that black has historically lacked effective answers in Modern. The main reason, though, is that practically every playable creature in Modern costs three mana or less. A card that kills all of those creatures (and a few more) for one mana is obviously formidable.

But let's be very clear: Fatal Push will not warp Modern. The format is fast enough that the most efficient creatures available are already the only ones that see play, and even if Push slows the format down, the card's conditions (which threaten tempo blowouts when players run creatures that cost more than one mana) are bound to keep things that way. Versatile two-drops like Tarmogoyf will remain format staples, despite being easier to answer in certain midrange mirrors.

So what is Push going to do to Modern? Let's find out!

Diversify Interactive Strategies

The arrival of a hyper-efficient removal spell in black signals a new era for interactive strategies in Modern. No longer must control, tempo, and midrange decks side with red or white to combat the format's aggro-combo strategies. Fatal Push stands to make Sultai and Esper, as well as the color pairs UB, BG, and BW, selectable as color combinations for interactive strategies.

Grixis Control in particular has much to gain from Fatal Push's arrival. Not only can the deck wield Push masterfully with its answer-recycling package of Thought Scour, Snapcaster Mage, and Kolaghan's Command, it largely ignores the card itself. Push does kill Snapcaster, but not before the Wizard has a chance to cast his spell. And it's helpless in the face of Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

Slow Down Linear Strategies

With more decks packing cheap, relevant removal spells, aggro-combo decks like Infect, UR Prowess, and Death's Shadow Zoo have some compromises to make. The adoption of cards like Spell Pierce and Dispel might help fight incoming Pushes, but at the cost of making aggro-combo decks slower and more interactive. The best cards to fight Push happen to be terrible against Tron and Dredge, meaning aggro-combo must slightly weaken its favorable matchups to improve its shakier ones.

Hurt BGx

While some pundits have claimed that Fatal Push slots right into Jund and Abzan, I think these decks will suffer more than any from the card's introduction to Modern. The primary reason to play BGx is Tarmogoyf, a threat that plays excellent defense against aggro decks and puts a respectable clock on linear combo. Notably, Tarmogoyf is the only two-drop combat creature to pass the Bolt test with flying colors (followed closely by conditional cronies Scavenging Ooze and Grim Flayer, also BGx staples). The removal spells in Modern that kill Tarmogoyf either give the midrange player a free land (Path to Exile) or answer it at parity or worse.

Until now, Tarmogoyf has never failed a removal test. But it fails the Push test. So do Flayer and Scooze, the latter of which at least fails it in style (you know, after Jund players sink a bunch of mana into it). Raging Ravine, specifically a big draw to Jund over Abzan, also dies to Fatal Push. The BGx archetype's iconic creatures have never been so vulnerable.

I also predict Abzan will poach some shares from Jund in the weeks following Push's sanctioning. In a slower, fairer metagame, Lingering Souls becomes vastly preferable to pretty much anything out of Jund colors. Plus, a swarm of 1/1 Spirits lines up pretty well against a one-mana removal spell.

For the record, I don't consider hurting BGx a move in the wrong direction. Jund and Abzan combine to make up a whopping 13% of the format, while interactive blue decks claim merely 5%. Fatal Push should redistribute midrange's rightful shares more evenly across a variety of shards, wedges, and variations, both by giving less-played combinations the tools they need to succeed in Modern and by naturally foiling Tarmogoyf, the chief draw to BGx.

Strengthen Tron

Tron decks could also get a boost from Fatal Push. Joe Lossett wowed at the SCG Players' Championship with a BG Tron deck touting Collective Brutality. I think a build with Fatal Push is a reasonable response to share increases in decks with Thing in the Ice, Death's Shadow, or Inkmoth Nexus. Brutality, for all its utility against Burn and Infect, has trouble answering these creatures.

I doubt Push will cement BG Tron as the go-to variant—after all, white has Path to Exile and Rest in Peace. Even so, Push is a worthy addition to Tron's ever-expanding suite of tools, and it's happily in the same color as Brutality for builds that want both.

It's Like a Jungle Sometimes

Fatal Push represents Wizards' willingness to print clearly powerful, format-defining cards for Modern via Standard, and may indicate a deliberate attempt to quell certain identified problems with the format. Indeed, Push seems to plug a few holes that have plagued Modern since the Great Banlist Purge of 2011, like black's lack of decent creature removal, the red-zone dominance of aggro-combo pump decks, and Tarmogoyf's stranglehold on spell-based midrange.

But we're not out of the jungle just yet. Modern is likely to remain highly polarized while Dredge roams free. At least with Push spoiled, the groundless calls for a Gitaxian Probe ban have subsided, which may allow the Modern community to unite its voices in decrying The Ultimate Nightmare of Wizards of the Coast¼ Customer Service. And we have something productive to do while we wait for January 16th—dust off our Spellstutter Sprites!

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