| Quiet Speculation

Insider: Lets Make Money with EDH

Posted on April 19, 2013January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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An increase in EDH popularity has caused some dramatic price shifts that have more competitive players scratching their heads. Casual magic opens up an area for speculation in what are often fringe playable card. These casual cards are a risky investment, especially compared to shocks/fetches or well timed Standard staple trades. In order to account for risk I try and target cards that are on the reserve list, unlikely to be reprinted or have mythic rarity. Finding a favored creature type also adds value to potential targets.

Unlike investing in a Standard format that can shift quickly, casual cards generally offer lower entry points and have a longer investment horizon. Occasionally another format lends a hand and your casual specs get some play in another popular format. That is generally a time to unload. Two recent examples of this kind of trade are Prime Speaker Zegana and Angel of Serenity.

Some Illustrations

Angel is a position I've traded in and out of, buying at $10 or less and selling at $15. While I like the Angel's chances to get to $20 over time, I've been happy with 50% returns in 60 day periods. I've also used profits in those deals to pick up some foil copies, as I expect the ceiling on that foil to be much higher.

Prime Speaker Zegana is a card I am acquiring at today's prices. For this close to playable in Standard to be trading under $10 represents good value considering it's a mythic commander in EDH. I can easily see this U/G merfolk at $15 soon or $20 eventually. Here foil pricing acts as a leading indicator. With foil Zeganas going for almost three times regular copies, I think we can safely read that as EDH appeal.

New Targets

With Dragon's Maze ready to launch, pre-sale pricing remains mostly overheated. While I cannot recommend pre-ordering for the same reasons Sigmund outlines, there is at least one good trading opportunity for a speculator moving into EDH casual cards: Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts. Buying into this cards means breaking some rules. She is in a Dragon's Maze intro pack, and could easily be reprinted. With playsets selling for just under $7 you can look to trade into her with other over-hyped cards.

Teysa is a card I can only justify spending $1 on, so why is it an interesting EDH target? She looks like a great commander for Tax/Stax builds. Opening up enchantment fetch, great removal and black tutors while destroying creatures that can fight through her and a Ghostly Prison seems decent. Once out of Standard I'm looking for a slow climb to $5. She reminds me a lot of a legendary Vengeful Pharaoh with better functionality.

If you are playing black in EDH you are are going to want to run a Coffin Queen. While she dodged the reserve list, this instant speed animator remains a Tempest only print. With copies floating around on Ebay for less than $4, this card is VERY easy to move at $5. Sell it as a graveyard animator AND dis-abler. Targeting their animation targets can net a player +2 card advantage. Also a fun way for local Johnny's to abuse ETB effects.

Speaking of ETB effects, lets take a look at the completed auction pricing for Caller of the Claw. See the single copy going for three times it's normal vale? I imagine adding the words EDH to the title made this seller a nice return. Much like the Queen above, Caller can also offer consistent returns if you buy at $1 and change and move at $3+. A great answer to EDH's omnipresent board wipe or just a great way to turn around an otherwise unfavorable combat exchange.

Any EDH player with access to white and green is going to run Worldy Tutor, but why not turn them on to Eladamri's Call? Both these cards are worth about the same, but only Eladamri's Call puts a creature into the player's hand. Another chance to extract value is open with both these creature tutors, but I like the Call as a longer term play. With it only being printed in Planeshift, I like its chances at a casual spike.

Looking Elsewhere

Remember those crazy Planechase cards? I am always going to love Baleful Strix and will always pick them up in trade. I am not expecting a reprint of this card in anything that would make it legal outside of Vintage, Legacy and EDH. This card is a flat out steal @$10 or less. Strong Ebay pricing means pushing hard locally to get these with cash. A blue and black artifact permanent makes this card a winner in every format it can be played in.

Somehow I missed Shardless Agent until very recently. Too bad for me as this is another card in limited supply and very playable in every format. Once again I am always trying to pick this up in trades and actively buying at $10 or less. In edh being a green creature is arguably better than being an artifact. Of course, this is both and if a limited print run didn't excite you it's cascade into Hypergenesis potential should. In fact, putting those two together on a page in your trade binder will get you value.

Sakashima's Student is available for less than 5$ on Ebay. For a card that consistently fetches close to $8, this seems like another limited print no-brainer. Sell this next to Body Double, Vesuvan Doppelganger and Clone as a mimic package to a blue EDH player and your unlock more value than the sum of these parts suggests.

Three more Planchase exclusive cards catch my eye: Illusory Angel, Preyseizer Dragon, and Brindle Shoat. Both the Dragon and the Angel show what I'd characterize as strong pricing. Their online mid and Ebay sell prices are equal or slightly higher on the auction sight. They've both been blessed with favored creature types and limited supply. While unlikely to be considered for more competitive matches, both are likely to find a home in more theme based decks. The Angel would move nicely next to Serra Angel or Stasis and Supreme Verdict.

Brindle Shoat is just a really cheap low print run card that might give you a shot at cornering the market. I could at least (try to) make it look reasonable next to my Caller of the Claw. While there are plenty of other interesting Planechase exclusive cards to consider, before I bought into any of them I'd look into sealed Spanish language boxes.

Every Magic player is casual at some time. Sitting down to have fun is more likely to mean something other than winning the longer anyone plays Magic if for no other reason than winning all the time is impossible. Look forward to the future of casual and you'll see EDH. The more social EDH becomes (2-headed giant, >2 players) the less competitive it can play. Allow this to inform your decision making process when looking for the next Aluren, and happy hunting!

Insider: Why Does Speculating on MTGO Work?

Posted on April 19, 2013December 23, 2013 by Matthew Lewis

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The world is a complicated place. In order to get by as a species, we muddle through by making simplifications in how we perceive the world. Early in our history it made a lot more sense to think of the world from a mythological perspective. For example, it was easier to think that sunlight came down from the sky by a god driving a sun chariot across the sky. This materialized in the Greek tradition with the myth of Apollo.

The actual reality of the sun as a celestial body in the solar system was beyond us. But, the simplification of using a myth to explain the movements of the sun was useful. It allowed an understanding of the broader world, even if the understanding was inaccurate. In this case the myth of Apollo led to cognitive bias. The world was conceived of as being ruled by the whims of gods. Overcoming this cognitive bias was necessary for the development of the human species as we know it today.

Cognitive Bias and the MTGO Market

Cognitive bias is alive and well in the MTGO market. As MTGO speculators, one of our key advantages comes from identifying cognitive bias in the wider player base, and then acting on that bias. By recognizing the bias, it can be exploited for profit.

For example, if one were to ask back in January about the price of Sphinx's Revelation, someone might suggest it's a 20-25 ticket card. By January, everyone on MTGO knew what a Sphinx's Revelation was worth. The cognitive bias in this case is called anchoring. The price of Sphinx's Revelation was anchored in the 20-25 ticket range.

This is a useful short-hand way to conceptualize price for an MTGO player. If one is looking to sell an extra copy and looking at different prices from a bunch of bots, you might get a wide variety of prices, some far too low. Having the price anchor in your mind is a good way to avoid getting burned. Price anchoring gives a good sense for what a card is worth and protects a player from a bad outcome, i.e. selling Sphinx's Revelation for 10 tix.

However, price anchoring can lead to problems. Although this cognitive bias has its uses, when things are shifting it becomes detrimental. Examining the assumptions that went into the price anchor reveals how. In this case, the fundamental assumption that went into valuing Sphinx's Revelation in the 20-25 ticket range was all things being equal. In other words, "All things being equal, Sphinx's Revelation is a 20-25 ticket card." What happens when things change?

Enter Gatecrash

With the release of Gatecrash, all things were no longer equal. The price anchor of Sphinx's Revelation depended on a world of steady RTR drafting. When RTR drafting switched over to GTC drafting, the old price anchor of 20-25 tix became a detrimental and exploitable bias. Anticipating this change could have yielded large profits. Once drafting switched over to GGG, fewer copies of Sphinx's Revelation were coming onto the market, but its usefulness in Standard did not diminish. The price started going up.

Where Is the Bias Right Now?

With the concept of price anchoring in mind, examining the MTGO market right now might yield other exploitable opportunities. Here are a few price-anchored cards that have found a relatively stable price band during the last month of GGG drafting.

Boros Reckoner is a 6-7 ticket card but has some downward price momentum. It appears in both Block and Standard Constructed.

Obzedat, Ghost Council is a 16-18 ticket card and looks to be stable in this range. Obzedat is a mythic and an important component of Block Constructed, so if the Block metagame shifts away from using this card after DGM enters the mix, then there will be some downward pressure on Obzedat's price.

Domri Rade is a 12-13 ticket card that sees sporadic play in Block, Standard and Modern.

When players think about these cards, they "know" what the price is because they are familiar with how their prices have moved in a period of triple GTC drafting. What will happen with the shift to DGR drafting? If history is any guide, these are set for a price increase. However, unlike Sphinx's Revelation after GTC hit, these cards will still be entering the market via DGR draft and sealed deck, which tempers the upside. Looking out to the Fall though, this might be the cheapest time to acquire these. I'm curious to find out myself!

Portfolio Update

This is a brief rundown of what I am buying, selling and looking out for in the market.

Selling:

I've just about completed selling off my mythic rares from Scars of Mirrodin block. Prices haven't really recovered on these, but in order to generate some tix for other opportunities it was necessary to sell them down.
Jace, Architect of Thought is a card I've been holding since November. It's seen stable prices in the 13-14 tix range, but I suspect that long-term buyers have been entering the market whenever this dips down. I've been selling some now with an eye to rebuying during DGM release events. My sense is that the long-term buyers will lose their appetite for this card once supply from drafters starts entering the market again and a price drop will ensue.

Buying:

This week my buying focused on GTC boosters. It struck me that as a short- to medium-term opportunity, GTC boosters are currently underpriced at around 3 tix. Check out the forums on MTGO for my reasoning, but essentially this feels like the probable bottom. Previously we saw RTR boosters drop to 2.6 during GTC release events. However, that was because RTR went from being drafted in RRR to not being drafted at all. The shift for GTC will be to go from GGG to DGR, so demand will not completely collapse. If they dip to 2.8 tix or below, I will continue to buy.
Boros Reckoner is a card I have started to acquire. I am happy to buy these for around 6 tix.

Watching:

If you couldn't tell from the gist of my article, I've also been watching Obzedat, Ghost Council and Domri Rade. I acquired quite a few copies of these during release events. Since that time Domri Rade has been remarkably stable, while Obzedat, Ghost Council has risen by 4-6 tix. They might see a drop in price during DGM release events so I will be adding to my position if they show any price weakness.

So You Want to Beat Junk?

Posted on April 18, 2013April 17, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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Last week I talked about when and how you should switch decks. It was one of my best articles in my opinion, so if you have not read it yet, do that first. In the article I talked briefly about the new Aristocrats deck. From writing that article, testing the deck, and using the process I described in the article, I decided to switch to that deck just a couple days before the Maryland PTQ I was planning to go to.

The Pro Tour: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the Pittsburgh Magic Crew. It’s two day mission: To explore strange new formats, to seek out new technology, and to boldly qualify for the Pro Tour.

The Aristocrats – Act 2

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Doomed Traveler

4 Cartel Aristocrat

4 Blood Artist

3 Skirsdag High Priest

4 Boros Reckoner

4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

1 Zealous Conscripts

Spells

4 Tragic Slip

4 Lingering Souls

3 Blasphemous Act

1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Land

4 Blood Crypt

4 Godless Shrine

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Dragonskull Summit

4 Isolated Chapel

1 Clifftop Retreat

1 Vault of the Archangel

2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Blasphemous Act

1 Electrickery

1 Flames of the Firebrand

1 Mark of Mutiny

2 Dreadbore

3 Duress

1 Purify the Grave

1 Zealous Conscripts

1 Thundermaw Hellkite

1 Obzedat, Ghost Council

2 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

PTQ Report

In Baltimore, I went 5-2 with the above list. Instead of a detailed round-by-round analysis, I'll cover the inner workings of the deck in the following section.

Of the two losses, one was in my control and the other was not. I actually lost a match to Wolf Run Bant, which should be an awesome matchup. Game one went like this: I try to play something and he counters it. This happens over and over until eventually he wins with a Restoration Angel plus Kessig Wolf Run. When I was sideboarding I thought it was a deck like UWR Flash but with green mana. Even though I sideboarded completely wrong, I was able to win game two.

In game three I sideboarded into the deck I should have at first, which would have worked if I hadn't misunderstood how Blood Artist and Cartel Aristocrat work together. I tried to stack the triggers in an intricate manner so that he wouldn’t kill me. Since I was unable to sacrifice them the way I wanted, my previous attack with Thundermaw Hellkite left me dead on board.

My other loss was to Mono Red splashing green. Game one he had the sickest draw I’ve ever seen and killed me on turn three. Since I didn’t draw Blasphemous act, I died without doing much at all. Game two, I stabilized by using some intricate blocking and then playing Boros Reckoner. Game three, my no-removal hand died to Stromkirk Noble + Volcanic Strength. Even though I was very frustrated, there was nothing I could have done that would have changed the outcome. I did beat two other similar decks on the day and while I was disappointed to lose, winning that match two out of three times is good.

Here is the list of decks I played against.

Mono Red splashing green 2-0
Mirror 2-1
Wolf Run Bant 1-2
Mono Red 2-1
Mono Red splashing green 1-2
Opponent's Scoop 2-0
Junk Reanimator 2-0

This is not the best sampling of the metagame for sure. Three of the seven rounds I had to play against one of my worst matchups. To come out with two wins should leave me in a great place to top eight. Unfortunately, I accumulated that other loss from counters basically locking me out. Also, I did have a free win because my opponent obtained a second loss and left the event.

Deck Analysis

For the rest of this article I'm going to systematically analyze the deck for what I think are its strengths and weaknesses. At the end, I'll talk about what changes may be merited.

Strengths

1. The deck interacts favorably with the metagame in a number of ways.

What makes this deck so good? Your combo of Boros Reckoner plus Blasphemous Act will beat any Thragtusk deck every time. Junk Reanimator specifically has no way to interact with this combination of cards. They are just dead if you draw both.

Jund, Junk, Bant and Naya Midrange are all easy matchups for this deck. If you just cast the creatures and spells you were normally going to play and then Blasphemous Act, they die. In addition, these decks are extremely vulnerable to Blood Artist plus either of the aristocrats. You will attack and deal them some damage, and then if you have a sacrifice outlet the Blood Artist triggers will kill them. If you have Boros Reckoner, Blood Artist, and Blasphemous Act, you don’t even need to deal them any damage before you kill them. Because of these interactions, this deck is able to come back from bleak-looking board states better than any deck I’ve ever played.

2. There is a large amount of synergy between its cards.

In addition to the obvious interactions of the three cards described above, there are a number of synergies that come up frequently. Sometimes you will be forced to Blasphemous Act before you can find a Boros Reckoner. In these situations you usually have one or both aristocrats. Niether of them should die to your board wipe spell, whether through protection from red or indestructibility.

Setting up favorable blocks is one of the most important aspects of this deck. Against any aggressive deck except the mirror, you want Doomed Traveler and Cartel Aristocrat. These two cards stop early aggression quite well. If they have a 3/3 Flinthoof Boar (or any 3/3 for that matter), you can sacrifice Doomed Traveler before declare blockers to give protection from green, then double-block to kill the boar and have your Cartel Aristocrat survive. This is important because if you block differently, killing the boar can prove difficult sometimes.

Skirsdag High Priest is an extremely challenging card to play. It also varies in power level depending on what other cards you have drawn each game. If you can set up a board state that allows you to create a 5/5 token on turn three or four, most decks cannot beat that line of play. Sometimes you need to be willing to chump block or block a one-toughness guy though.

With so many synergies in this deck, there are always triggers happening that you need to remember. Forgetting any of them can mean the difference between winning and losing. Every Blood Artist trigger is important. Every creature you cast is important because that is one less mana you need for Blasphemous Act, one more activation of Cartel Aristocrat, or one more +1/+1 counter for Falkenrath Aristocrat. The deck works together like an intricate machine so you have to be careful not to waste your resources.

3. It contains many cards that are hard to play around.

I’ve covered this somewhat but it is important to remember. If you topdeck a Blood Artist when you have a way to sacrifice your creatures, they might just die that turn. The same can be said about the other parts of your combo. In addition, you have some cards that drastically change the board state. Sorin for example, can make an emblem the first turn he is played. Doubling the power all of your flyers have is always a surprise for opponents. Zealous Conscripts stealing one of their creatures can cripple many opponents especially when you can usually sacrifice it post-combat. Even little things like a Tragic Slip you can turn on or Falkenrath Aristocrat having haste can be problematic. There are so many angles of attack with this deck that it is hard for any opponent to prepare for them all.

4. The flexible sideboard options can completely change matchups.

Part of the strength of the sideboard lies in the fact that three colors gives you access to over half the legal cardpool. There are specifically potent cards you can bring in depending on the matchup. Against many decks I was bringing in ten cards from the sideboard. The cards currently in the sideboard function well against more than one deck. A great example of this is Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. Not only is he good against control strategies like Esper Control, he is also quite good against other aggressive decks like Naya Blitz.

Weaknesses

1. The deck relies almost entirely on one toughness creatures.

Electrickery, Curse of Deaths Hold and Bonfire of the Damned are all terrifying cards for a deck like this. Sometimes they aren’t enough because with a Blood Artist in play, it can be lethal to play one of those cards. They present a large threat to the majority of the deck though. In the PTQ, I tried to play around these cards as much as possible but I found it hard to do so and still try to win the game. If you are having trouble beating the Aristocrats, I would look to one of these cards for help.

2. Awkward draws happen more often because the deck relies on synergy.

Throughout the games I’ve played with this deck, it is apparent that sometimes you do not draw the right cards for the situation. This is true for many decks, but more highlighted in this deck. There were times when all I needed was either of the aristocrats in order to win the game, but without them I could not win. Drawing too many expensive spells can mean a loss against an aggressive deck as well.

3. Weak aggressive matchup despite a number of good cards against them.

Many players have figured this out and most of them are still confused about why it is true. When a deck has Doomed Traveler, Cartel Aristocrat, Boros Reckoner and Blasphemous Act, it should presumably have an amazing aggro matchup. It seems like that should be true, but honestly it doesn’t play out that way.

I think the aggro match is so sketchy because so many cards in the deck are horrible against them. The aggro deck has a huge advantage against you because it is almost like you are mulliganing to five every game. If you have too many dead cards, they just overrun you with all of their cheap guys. It is hard to put into words what makes the matchup so unfavorable, but it is not great. With that being said, it is very winnable. If you draw most of the cards that are good against them, you won’t have many problems beating them. Additionally, if you keep a hand that you should always keep in the dark, your game one could be over in five minutes because those cards were all dead against aggro.

Improvements

So how can we fix the deck's weaknesses?

I would think that most of the time having one-toughness creatures in game one won’t be a problem. What we can do is address the issue in the sideboard. Right now, I have three five-mana creatures that are good replacements for some of the one-toughness creatures should that need arise. The other thing to remember is that you usually have some time to set up before the creature’s one-toughness becomes a liability.

The second and third weaknesses go together a little bit. Because this deck is capable of some awkward draws, that adds to the inability to beat aggro. My thought to fix the aggro matches was to change the maindeck up to try to beat more aggro decks game one. The midrange matchups are already so good that we can afford to play fewer cards that are good against them.

The Aristocrats – Act 2

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Doomed Traveler

4 Cartel Aristocrat

4 Blood Artist

3 Skirsdag High Priest

4 Boros Reckoner

4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

Spells

4 Tragic Slip

3 Lingering Souls

4 Blasphemous Act

2 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Land

4 Blood Crypt

4 Godless Shrine

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Dragonskull Summit

4 Isolated Chapel

1 Clifftop Retreat

1 Vault of the Archangel

2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Electrickery

2 Rolling Temblor

1 Mark of Mutiny

2 Dreadbore

3 Duress

1 Purify the Grave

2 Zealous Conscripts

1 Thundermaw Hellkite

1 Obzedat, Ghost Council

1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

This version is only two cards different, but cutting a Lingering Souls and Zealous Conscripts for the fourth Blasphemous Act and a second Sorin, Lord of Innistrad seems like a great deal of help. Even though it may seem counterintuitive, make sure you side out the Falkenrath Aristocrats against aggro because they are not well positioned at all. I would even like to fit an Electrickery maindeck but I also don't want to cut any more cards. Small changes to your deck like this can swing matchups so don't underestimate them.

Next week, I will most likely be diving right into Dragon's Maze cards so make sure you don't miss that one.

Until next time,

Unleash the Aristocratic Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Memories of Milwaukee

Posted on April 18, 2013April 17, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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As I walked away with the match slip I didn't recall my opponent saying anything other than "go" and "alright man" at any point during our match. To be fair, playing at 2-3 isn't exactly anybody's dream. Despite still being in top 64 contention there was no way I'd still be battling if I had access to a vehicle that was ready to leave Milwaukee. Even still, I generally play against more cordial players when the matches basically don't matter. Perhaps he likewise was trapped in the great Wisconsin labyrinth. Perhaps his actual dream of a top eight finish was of fantastic importance to him. For whatever reason, there was nothing content about his disposition.

***

Thousands of years ago I was working a slave labor job at a gas station where I would have several hundred live interactions on the daily. Approximately three of them were pleasant. Needless to say, getting off work and grabbing a beer or twelve was the moment that I lived for.

On a decidedly average night I was conversing with the only person that I would label as a gas station "regular" that I didn't on some level despise. On his way out the door he told me to have a good night and I responded with something unnecessarily sarcastic as I was wont to do at the time. Probably the typical "I'll do what I can."

He stopped at the door, took a sip of his coffee and said, "You know man, right now you've got your boozing, you got your girls, you got your drugs, but someday- I mean this- Someday man, you're going to learn to just appreciate a nice cup of coffee."

***

I sat with my face buried in my hands. My head felt like somebody had clubbed me with a bag of nails. I had been drinking water nonstop all morning and not an ounce of misery had left my body. It was a miracle that I had gotten out of bed at all- not everybody in our car had. I heard a voice from somewhere in the world around me.

"Are you dead again, Ryan?"

"That depends how you mean."

"Record?"

I removed my head from my hands and saw the face of Bennett Snyder. I'm sure he wasn't expecting anything pretty, but when I say I looked like hell I don't exaggerate.

"2-0."

I don't think this was the answer he was expecting.

"So, what's wrong then? You're 2-0 and I've never seen you so miserable."

"We're calling it a hangover."

***

Another game, another mulligan. Another short-lived attempt at the swiss-gambit after an 0-1 start in another Standard tournament. I wouldn't know this until the day after, but mulliganing to four twice in a Legacy event proved to be preferable to mulliganing at all in a Standard one.

Another turn and another incorrect understanding of the rules by my opponent. Another time that I didn't call a judge on him and another loss where it wouldn't have actually mattered. Another checkmark on another "drop" box. Another trip to the liquor store. Another opportunity to Cube.

***

2-1 and I found myself paired against Adrian Sullivan. I had assumed he would be on something on the zonky side, but I was somewhat disappointed. He was on UR Delver, though I did find his misers Cerebral Vortex quite amusing.

Our match consisted of one us getting a game loss and the other mulling to four (savvy readers will know what happened to whom). It was far from ideal, but I enjoyed talking to Adrian very much.

A lot of people don't like Adrian Sullivan, and very few of these people actually know him, and for this reason I admire his continued dedication to the game. He clearly has fans, and haters tend to be the more vocal group anyhow. I myself have my own fair share of haters, and to classify them as anything other than "adorable" gives them far too much credit. They are shallow and harmless. I had asked him about his commentary and I loved that he acknowledged its polarizing nature. Here was a man who knew exactly who he was and wasn't afraid of what others would think of it.

The end result was a "W" for him, but it was my most enjoyable match of the weekend. Somewhere towards the end of our match a friend of Adrian's delivered him something the he referred to as a Ponza. "For five dollars it'll take about five months off your life. And it's #@$%ing awesome." On a different day I would be all over one of those.

***

I laughed as I shook Stephen's hand.

"I actually can't beat you. Left the Crypts at home this weekend. Hahaha."

"Oh, heh. I thought you boarded some things in against me though."

"I have one Surgical Extraction and a Rough//Tumble- which would've been real fantastic here- but I'm basically cold to the manaless version of dredge."

I don't see how I could justify being upset about losing an unwinnable matchup after already being out of top 8 contention. I'm not going to say that I enjoyed playing it, but where else did I have to be? There would be plenty of time to grab Subway after I lost this one.

"I feel kind of like a jerk playing this deck. I mean, it requires basically no thought."

"Don't. I'm sure you have your reasons, and I hope you win out. Next time I'll probably have the Crypts though, so watch yourself!"

***

I didn't get much sleep on the five hour ride back from Milwaukee, but Kyle Olson, Dana Kinsella and Tony Ranallo provided excellent company. Tony was even sober Saturday night, so he had plenty of stories to tell us about... ourselves.

I had an early shift on Monday morning that I wasn't going to have a ton of time to get ready for. Maybe an hour to sleep. Plenty of time for a shower and breakfast though.

When my alarm went off I dragged my bones upstairs and fired up my newfangled Keurig. What a wonderful machine it's turning out to be.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: A Few New Spec Targets

Posted on April 18, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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There’s a lot happening as we roll around in spoilers from Dragon’s Maze. I had originally planned to do something this week other than diving into spoilers, but a few targets worth talking about recently cropped up.

Without further ado, I’m diving in. Come along.

Reforge the Soul

Like for several cards here, Notion Thief is what’s steering our course on this target. Now would be a good time to open a handy spoiler, by the way, like this one.

Here’s the scenario. Flash in Notion Thief at the end of your opponent’s turn. Untap and cast Reforge the Soul. You now have fourteen cards to their zero.

This is an incredibly powerful interaction, and one I can’t overstate enough. Reforge the Soul and Faithless Looting even have the bonus of digging through your deck to find Notion Thief.

Whispering Madness

Another card to combo with Notion Thief, and another solid spec target.

I’ll say it now, I have no idea if this will be viable, but Whispering Madness and Thief will both be legal at the same time a year from now, so it may be the better target.

The best part about these specs, and I say this a lot, is both are near-bulk right now. Think Blasphemous Act. It doesn’t have to go up much for you to make money, and it can’t go much farther down. There’s a lot to like here, and I feel like there’s plenty of room to explore in this archetype, even if it doesn’t come to fruition until next year. That’s why I’ll be grabbing Whispering Madness whenever I can as a trade throw-in.

Forbidden Orchard

One important aspect of Beck that differentiates it from Glimpse of Nature is that it triggers upon creatures entering the battlefield (anyone's, not just yours) rather than being cast. That makes Forbidden Orchard actually insane, both giving you mana to combo out and providing a free draw.

I’ve been testing the Elves deck, and it has the potential to go off on turn three, although depending on the amount of interaction turn four to five is more common. The point, though, is that it seems real. And if the deck breaks out at a tournament in the near future it could easily contain some amount of Orchards. If that happens we’d see the $6 card hit $15-20 without a problem, considering how little Kamigawa is available.

Yes, it’s been reprinted once, but it was a specialty product (From the Vault: Realms) and as such wouldn’t be a significant hindrance. I may be entirely wrong about Elves' viability, but I know getting in on these now is pretty safe considering the price hasn’t changed much in two years.

Gilded Lotus

It’s been slowly climbing since its release in M13, and I expect the trend to continue or accelerate in the next year or so. We’ve seen the huge increases in EDH and casual cards in the last six months, and eventually that will catch up to the Lotus enough to overcome the reprint.

At $3 now, this seems like a very cheap spec target that could reach $6 in a year if we see another year of growth. Safe and easy double-up target.

Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker

Another M13 card that I feel has bottomed out. Planeswalkers are always solid longer-term investments, and a big flashy one like this is no exception. I don’t see how you can go wrong getting in at $4.

Vampire Nocturnus

The last of the M13 trio, I think Nocturnus at $4 is a can’t-miss, considering it once sat comfortably at $20. The next vampire-themed set that comes out, if this guy isn’t included, is going to accelerate its rise back to $10.

I wanted to include these three cards because the time to find M13 in binders is quickly disappearing. These are the kinds of cards that are much better to trade into than buy, but you can only do that while you have an opportunity to find them in binders. And that time is growing slim.

Death's Shadow

Everyone is all about this card in Modern, but I’m certain that selling into the hype is the correct play here. I’m not saying it’s not a viable combo in Modern, but I do think it requires a lot of work to set up when the payoff is just to have a guy who can still be [card Lightning Helix]helixed[/card] or sent on a Path to Exile.

I could be wrong, but obviously it doesn’t matter anyway in regards to price. The card has moved up, and I think the best course of action is to get rid of these now, the same way I said last week moving Cloudstone Curio into the hype was the right play. Since then Curio has come down to $6-7, and I expect Death’s Shadow to take a similar tract.

Preparing for the Prerelease

With a little more than a third of the set spoiled, this is what my prerelease list of targets looks like. I’m sure that will change more in the next week, and I’ll be sure to keep you updated, as well as bring you both my Dragon’s Maze set review and a retrospective on my Gatecrash review.

It’s a busy time for Magic. Enjoy it!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Looking for Legacy in Dragon’s Maze

Posted on April 16, 2013January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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In this article I'm going to review a few of the spoiled cards from Dragon's Maze for Legacy playability. In case you don't remember from last time, here are the criteria I use to rate cards:

Power -- In order for any card to see Legacy play it either needs to match or surpass the power of an existing card, or provide a completely unique effect.
Converted Mana Cost -- The lower the better. While this is important in all formats, it is especially so in one as efficient as Legacy.
Pitchable to [card Force of Will]Force[/card]? -- While this obviously isn't a deal breaker, blue cards should be scrutinized more simply because blue is the most powerful color.
Similarity to Staples -- Does it do something similar to a card that already sees play

Beck//Call

This Glimpse of Nature-like card has created a massive push for all Modern combo Elves cards (Cloudstone Curio being the biggest offender). One subtle difference that could prove significant is that Beck triggers off of a creature entering the battlefield, rather than being cast. This means it triggers off of creatures cheated into play, but not when the creature is countered. Glimpse works the opposite way.

This card is quite powerful as its ability is similar to a card that's already proven itself Legacy-playable.
In Legacy the difference between one and two CMC is certainly significant, but Beck is still eminently castable.
This one is pitchable to FoW, which might open the door for a G/U Elves build which improve its matchup against faster pure combo decks. Unfortunately, while Beck//Call is pitchable to FoW, no other cards currently played in Elves are. So Force will most likely remain outside of the reach of the typical elf combo player.
The comparison to Glimpse of Nature has been reiterated by numerous people already. An effect like this has proven capable of winning tournaments.

Likelihood of being played in Legacy -- Moderate

Varolz, the Scar-Striped

This guy has caused the price of Death's Shadow to jump from bulk rare to $3-4. Other cards this guy pairs well with are Phyrexian Dreadnought, Hunted Horror, Hunted Troll and Eater of Days. Given the powerful green and black cards from Return to Ravnica, this type of deck could easily take down a major event by surprising unprepared opponents. But this style of deck tends to succeed only when it's a dark horse. It's important to remember that the removal of choice in Legacy is still Swords to Plowshares, although in Modern damage-based spells are more common.

Granting scavenge to all your creatures can be powerful when they're undercosted to begin with, which tends to be the case in Legacy. Unfortunately, the scavenge ability is a pretty huge liability against removal spells, as you basically end up getting time walked.
The CMC is 3, which is within Legacy limits, but he's a 2/2 with no ETB abilities. If he dies before getting a chance to attack (preferably after having another undercosted creature scavenged onto him) then the Varolz player is in a bad position.
Varolz is not pitchable to FoW.
He is not really similar to any existing cards, so there's always a chance someone will create a deck that breaks him; but I think those chances are rather slim.

Likelihood of being played in Legacy -- Very Low

Blood Scrivener

This guy has been compared to Dark Confidant and his preorder price jumped significantly after initial presales went up (going from $4 to $8). Unfortunately, his ability is far more limited than Dark Confidant's, and having an empty hand is rarely preferable in Legacy. The cost of only 1 life is nice, but with the low curve of most Legacy decks Dark Confidant will usually only cost you 1-3 life anyways and doesn't carry the extra restriction.

The ability is quite powerful in a deck built to empty the hand.
The CMC is 2, which is very reasonable for a 2/1 with a card drawing ability (see Dark Confidant).
Blood Scrivener is not pitchable to FoW and to make matters worse, decks that play FoW don't tend to like to have empty hands.
He is a toned down version of Dark Confidant, and while the decks that play Dark Confidant would love to play more than four, Blood Scrivener is not really a suitable Dark Confidant #5/#6.

Likelihood of being played in Legacy -- Very Low

Renounce the Guilds

This removal spell could play a role, and is in the sweet spot for CMC of removal spells in Legacy.

The ability is somewhat powerful, and certainly unique for white, though most Legacy staples are mono-colored. It is a cheap solution to Progenitus.
The CMC is 2, which is high for a white removal spell (given Swords to Plowshares and Path to Exile at one) but it doesn't target, which makes it useful against hexproof/shroud/pro-white creatures.
Not pitchable to FoW
White doesn't really have any specific effects like this, but it is a narrow solution in a format that requires a lot of flexibility.

Likelihood of being played in Legacy -- Extremely Low

Possibility Storm

This seemingly-innocuous red enchantment carries the red flavor of randomness, but also offers the raw power of free spells. Given how many decks play only a few counterspells, with the obvious exception of RUG, this card would make any future spells cast difficult to counter. Another important interaction is that it does not require a shuffle before activation, so if you're able to manipulate the top of your deck you can conceivably cast large threats for very little mana. From what I've seen so far, this is one of the cards I'm most excited about.

The ability to play spells for free is pretty busted and one Wizards has tended to avoid (minus Omniscience) since Dream Halls.
The CMC is 5, which is quite high, but the double-red is actually the biggest factor. Even with Legacy's near-perfect mana bases, double colors usually require a strong commitment, unlike single colors which are often handled as a splash.
Not pitchable to FoW, though in many instances a resolved one will negate most of the remaining Force of Wills an opponent has.
This effect is similar to Omniscience, though in red and seemingly more random.

Likelihood of being played in Legacy -- ????? (It could easily break out as an all-star with the right archetype.)

Plasm Capture

I'm pretty sure Evan Erwin will start his segment on this card, "Oh MY GOD they reprinted Mana Drain... sort of." There's a lot of hype on this card because of that. What people aren't considering is the ridiculously demanding mana cost, and in Legacy you're typically not going to get more than four mana off of it. We've had a similar Legacy-playable card (Scattering Stroke) available for quite awhile, and that doesn't carry a double-green mana requirement. I see this card being awesome in EDH and Standard, but I don't see it having much impact on Legacy.

The ability is powerful -- at two blue mana; at four, meh.
The CMC is four which is bad enough, throw on the double-green requirement and we're not looking good.
Is pitchable to FoW and would probably be played in a deck that also plays FoW.
This effect is similar to Mana Drain (which is banned in Legacy), but costs as much as Scattering Stroke and you trade the randomness of clash for a much more restricted mana cost.

Likelihood of being played in Legacy -- Very Low

Jason’s Archives: Making Trades, Losing Readers

Posted on April 16, 2013April 16, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Wait for It

I traveled to SCG Milwaukee this weekend, and while it wasn't the most money I ever made on a weekend trip (I didn't sell a single card -- to SCG anyway) I managed to rethink the way I approach trading. I am really starting to hate value trading because so many factors go into making it a painful experience. Trading doesn't have to suck, but if it starts to feel like your job, it's probably going to. I decided to take a different approach that mitigated all the things I hate about trading.

Everyone Thinks They're a Shark Now

It's pretty obvious who the sharks are if you've been at this a while. You start to see the same faces over and over and know who you'll want to trade with again and who you won't. For the people who are local, they'll out themselves eventually by how aggressive they are. I was waiting for two guys to conclude a trade until I heard the one I hadn't traded with yet try to value his trade partner's [card Huntmaster of the Fells]Huntmaster[/card] at $12-$15. Either the guy is a scumbag and hoping he can get the guy for $10, or he's totally divorced with reality when it comes to prices and he's going to be surprised and incredulous every time I tell him a real price and we'll spend an extra half hour watching him look everything up. Either way, I wasn't about to waste my time on this guy.

The shark wannabes have sort of ruined the trade experience for the casual trader to the extent that you can audibly hear buttholes pucker when you approach certain people and ask them to trade. After a few times of an overly-aggressive person hounding them for trades, trying to beat them up over prices and generally lacking tact they're going to leave their binder in their backpack and pretend they don't have it. Eventually they'll leave it at home.

My solution was to pop a squat and wait for the trades to come to me. Staying in the same spot made sure I was more likely to have people bring their friends over to trade with me if I had stuff they needed. The most important element was that by not seeking trades I only traded with people who wanted to trade. I wasn't just another douchebag asking someone "Trades? Got trades? Trades?" for the 15th time that day when all they wanted to do was play EDH and be left alone. Don't annoy people. Let them come to you, and give them a reason to bring their friends.

Everyone is Using Their Damn Phone Now

People who trade a lot just hate it when people get out their phone to look up every price. A lot of the non-trading community thinks, "well, yea, you want to rip people off and when they use their phone you can't." but that's not it at all. If someone is going to look up every price on SCG, I'm going to target their big cards that are the same price everywhere and only come off of my small stuff that is overpriced on SCG. I get a card at $25 in trade that eBays for $24 for a pile of $25 in trade that eBays for $11. It suits my needs since I was going to eBay either pile and I'd rather have more money, and I let the other person name every single price. The real problem is it's time consuming. People are so paranoid about you "getting" them that they make the trade take three times as long as it has to.

My solution was a pretty good one. I noticed one guy I was trading with had a friend watching who I'd traded with before and who was knowledgeable about prices. Any time there was a question about the price, I asked the guy's friend who was standing right there and he backed up the number I'd given as being correct. The trade partner relationship can be seen as adversarial by some so they're going to want to double check with the internet if they think a price is wrong. How likely are they to double check a price their friend quotes? If you're telling people the correct number and their friend backs you up twice, or sometimes even once, the trade partner is more likely to trust you and won't look up every price. This makes the trade go by a lot faster.

Everyone at SCG Events Wants to Use SCG's Prices

This is fine. Do what I said above and try to trade up at SCG and you won't lose value even trading straight across.

Another strategy I adopted this weekend was born out of necessity. By the end of the month I have to cough up three grand to repay a loan I took out to buy cards two weeks ago. This means I'll be eBaying my ass off for the next two weeks. I realized there were some cards that were insane on SCG compared with eBay (SCG upped the price of foil [card Thalia, Guardian of Thraben]Thalia[/card] to $25 today -- I noticed when Ben Bleiweiss bought mine from eBay for $15) and some prices that were exactly the same.

If you're only getting $13 for Angel of Serenity on eBay, don't trade for it at $20 because that's what SCG has them at. Trade it away for $20 and pick up something like Liliana of the Dark Realms which crept up on eBay first. It's the exact same price on eBay as it is on SCG. You trade one angel for two Lilianas and a two dollar throw-in and you come out almost $7 ahead. Picking up cards that have a spread of virtually 0% comparing SCG or TCG Mid to eBay are cards you should target if eBay is your out.

Another out is the buylist. Again, trading a $20 card that buylists for $9 and picking up a $20 card that buylists for $14 is a no brainer. You made $5 trading straight across and you let your trade partner name the prices. You can use this technique even if you're not sure whether the cards you're trading are going up or down because you're aiming to cash in now. I traded straight across all weekend and always came out way ahead. Even if I want to pick up Angel of Serenity later, I know they're cheaper on eBay and even buying them cash you can make $7 trading them out at $20. This is all about playing to your out, whether it's TCG player/ eBay or a buylist.

I had a great time trading, I met some Brainstorm Brewery fans, I made a lot of money letting people and their friends pick the prices and I am on track to make my goal by the end of the month. Not bad for a weekend spent trading in the era of smartphones.

Alive and Kicking in Strasbourg

GP Strasbourg Coverage

Legacy is still alive and well, and it's not the only thing back from the dead. Death and Taxes, a deck that punishes opponents with a variety of hate creatures, crushes them under the weight of the Mangara of Corondor/Karakas combo, and has inevitability in a long game (hence the name "Death and Taxes" because like those things, victory is inevitable) is back.

Team Denmark has brought the deck back and the winner of GP Strasbourg, Thomas Enevoldsen, was jamming this deck. I have played a lot of variants over the years -- Green and Taxes (love me some Knight of the Reliquary), Junk and Taxes (turn one Hymn to Tourach seems like a good way to start off the Mangara combo beatings) and plain old mono-white Death and Taxes writ large.

I gradually moved toward Maverick, but this build (they're calling it "Team Rocket" but I say if you want to name a deck you must first invent a deck) seems good against the meta and put two people in the top eight. Is Karakas going to go up in price again? Don't ask me, I don't write finance articles. Besides, if you'd told me [card Jace, the Mind Sculptor]Mind Sculptor[/card] would someday hit $150 a year ago when I didn't like trading for them at $60 I would have laughed in your stupid face. I know I wouldn't hate having a few judge foil Karakas laying around. Even if they don't go up, they're a solid Benjamin in a trade and that gets you a lot of Vexing Devils for your eBay box. If you don't have any, I wouldn't bother. Spending $100 to make $10 or $20 sucks.

Also doing well in that meta was a top eight finish from Punishing Maverick. Maybe it's the meta, maybe it's that I was right about a deck with Knight of the Reliquary being the better Punishing Grove deck right now. Either way, it happened. I think Legacy is a format where you can play a deck you're comfortable with to great success and the metagame shapes your sideboard, not your deck choice. Alexander Hayne said as much in his interview. He went with a deck he liked and did well with consistently and that happened to not suck against the meta. Seemed like a fine choice to me. Don't listen to people who say Maverick isn't a deck. If those people were ever right, the entire top eight would be Sneak and Show.

Sneak and Show did manage one top eight finish, but it happens. The deck is powerful, but I think people are starting to realize it gets the turn two [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] pretty consistently, but that doesn't always get there. Sneak Attack requires you to draw a followup threat which doesn't always happen. I watched plenty of people take 15 to the mouth from the Flying Spaghetti Monster, sac all of their permanents then calmly come back and win the game as their opponent tried to find a followup threat. The deck is still good, but is it possible Emrakul isn't the best thing to put into play with Show and Tell? I am starting to miss Progenitus.

Someone got top eight with Merfolk. It's a deck.

RUG Delver and Canadian Thresh both managed a top eight as well. This is the closest to having two of the same deck outside of the two Death and Taxes builds. Alexander Hayne is pretty OK at cards.

Someone played Team America, which baffled me. I feel like BUG Agent or another similar variant make better use of Dark Confidant. Hove Thießen solved this by not running any. Beats eating a fat one to a topdecked Tombstalker when you're at 8 I guess.

Legacy was also played in Milwaukee. Dead format my ass.

The City That Sleeps

Man, what a bummer Milwaukee is. I would apologize if you're from Milwaukee, but I won't on principal. If you want to stop reading my articles over it, fine, but just remember it isn't my fault your city sucks.

What kind of a mall food court, the only real food within 2 blocks of the convention center besides Dominos pizza (which is not real food) closes at 6 pm? What kind of city tosses people from a bar for having straight bills on their hats (an awesome one, now that I think about it. White guys with straight-billed hats should be subjected to public ridicule on a more regular basis) and doesn't sell alcohol after something absurd like 9 PM ("Come on vacation, leave on probation" one local said to a friend of mine who balked at the tough beer laws in a city that has literally nothing else going for it). I wasn't even out since I traded until 10pm Saturday night and went right back to the hotel, but my friends all reported back to me about the abysmal time they had. Let's not have events in Milwaukee ever again when Madison is close by and sucks so much less it isn't funny.

Despite my qualms about the city, and taking place in a convention center that booked a hotel across the street from one corner of the convention center, the event was pretty decent (on site my ass. You ever walk a mile next to a guy with cerebral palsy and a 40 pound backpack? I thought this was going to be the event Ryan's heart exploded and I needed a new set of coattails to ride). Nearly 600 people played Standard and more than 0 people played Legacy. All in all, it was an unqualified success.

"I think I have a lucky horseshoe shoved up my ass." - actual quote from Jeff Hoogland

"Why can't I hold all these Top 8s?" - not actual quote from Jeff Hoogland. Still, though.

SCG Milwaukee Standard Top 16

Next time you're going to call something the "dominant deck in Standard," just don't. It will be less than a week until you're proven wrong. One copy of Reanimator in the Top 16 shut a few traps this weekend. Three copies of The Aristocrats in the Top 16 shut a few more. Not bad for a deck that is "dead". Falkenrath Aristocrat traded at $20 all weekend and Sam Black played the deck. When Sam Black plays a deck, pay attention. He even ran the correct number of Blood Artists (3Just read this whole decklist.

Other than the above Jund in Peace deck, not much is new in Standard. Spoiler season makes people want to look far ahead and neglect Standard. That's fine with me, Standard is kind of lame anyhow, which is probably too harsh considering Standard hasn't been this good and diverse since the last time we were opening packs marked "Ravnica". Better mana means more decks. Take note, Wizards -- Lorwyn block was a fluke. That format didn't devolve into 5cc so easily because the mana was too good, it did because most of the cards were terrible.

SCG Milwaukee Legacy Top 16

Let's talk about Legacy. This time three Sneak and Show decks managed Top 16 and one won. If you're inclined to give equal weight to this result and the result of the GP, I wish you wouldn't. Nice work, Adam Jansen. It takes luck to win an event with Sneak and Show, but I watched one of Adam's matches and he knows what he's doing. Just because you need luck doesn't mean you don't need skill. At all.

I like Deadguy Ale. It may seem silly to jam Squadron Hawk in Legacy, but it makes me smile to watch someone pitch a succession of them to Liliana of the Veil. That's what we call card advantage. The deck is a combination of a lot of the salient elements from successful decks, and it's named after a beer which is apt since it feels like a homebrew. Yes I realize Rogue Brewery's Dead Guy Ale isn't a homebrew.

People like to cascade in Legacy. Both the BUG and RUG variants showed up in the Top 16. Could Shardless Agent not be done going up or is it in danger of a reprint? Either way, Ancestral Vision also trades well. I hear when Gray Ogre draws three cards he's pretty good.

Merfolk put two in the Top 16 and Goblins put one. Pick a deck you like, learn it, sideboard for the meta and let your skill make luck happen for you. Bitch all you want about the cost of Jace the Mind Sculptor -- he was only in three decks of a possible sixteen here. Brew something spicy like Jeff Hoogland did (anyone notice how he invented two decks and keeps top-eighting Standard and Legacy with them or am I the only one?), learn the format and jam games. You can whine about how much Legacy costs or you can lend a $100 RDW deck to a new player and give them their first taste of how much fun Legacy is to play. It continues to be a dynamic format with every block making new archetypes and it's less inaccessible than some would have you believe. Go brew something, dammit.

Insider: Sigmund in Europe, Legacy Grand Prix Strasbourg and Room for Opportunity

Posted on April 15, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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This past weekend I had the rare opportunity to play in a Legacy Grand Prix. The fact that this event took place across the pond in Strasbourg, France was no less than extraordinary. Through a twist of fortune. my company sent me on a business trip to the Frankfurt area with overlapping timing of the Grand Prix. This two hour trip was more than worth it.

Fortune was not with me during the main event, however, and I was swiftly eliminated. It turns out not playing Legacy for a year (and mulling to five twice in a round) is a bad idea.

But I did gain some invaluable experience on the finance side. While I claim to be no expert in arbitrage between the European and American MTG market, I would like to share some of the tidbits I picked up while I was overseas.

Legacy Is Alive… and Kicking

A full 1365 players attended this Legacy Grand Prix. While the size doesn’t set any records, the energy in the room was very high and it was obvious how much people enjoy this format. When I asked a friend at the GP if he would drop after a disappointing start his response was, “No. I want to play more Legacy.” True dedication.

This energy transcended to the dealer tables. All five dealers had their fair share of money cards on display. Black bordered Dual Lands, Power, cards like Lions Eye Diamond and foil Jace, the Mind Sculptors were all on display. If the foil Jace wasn’t 500 Euros, I may have made a bid for it. Too much for my blood.

This brings me to my first key observation of the European market. In the United States, booster packs have an MSRP of $3.99. In the Eurozone, the MSRP is 4 euro. Thanks to a conversion rate of 1 euro = $1.31, this equates to a 31% higher price for the same booster pack. While a Standard booster box can be purchased for $90 in the US, those same boxes sell for 90 euros overseas.

This creates a forced price discrepancy in newer cards. In order for a retailer in Europe to sell every card in a new set, they need to open the same number of packs as an American retailer while paying about one-third greater to do so. As a result, a new card like Deathrite Shaman sells for about $12 in the US also sells for about the same in euros within Europe. Even a Standard card like Angel of Serenity was marked with a 12 euro price tag.

Going back to foil Jace – even though this is a Legacy card its recent printing has not yet overcome these price inconsistencies. Therefore, a $500 foil Jace will sell for 500 euro in the Eurozone.

Foils

There’s another factor which is perhaps driving up foil Jace’s price – the demand for foil eternal and casual staples in the European market. The cards that got the most attention in my binder this past weekend was my set of foil Abrupt Decays. This card, like Jace, has the double-whammy of being recently printed and Legacy playable. Not a single dealer had these for sale, and each one attempted to negotiate with me on price.

But what took me most by surprise was what happened next. One dealer asked me what my desired price was on the set of Foil Abrupt Decays and I had to do some quick math. I determined that $100 was fair for the set, I did a rough euro conversion, and I spat out “75 euros”. The dealer closed the binder and handed it back to me.

A player nearby heard my asking price and starting talking to me in French. I apologized for not being able to speak French, but I knew what he wanted – those Abrupt Decays. So much so, that he took 75 euros out of his wallet and tried to hand it to me right in front of the dealer booth!

The dealer was kind enough to instruct us (in French) to go outside and complete the transaction. Two minutes later and I unloaded my foil Abrupt Decays at a fair price. Now I need to purchase more because I think these will do well in the long term!

Many dealers had multiple, thick binders full of English and Foreign foils. I took a quick glance through one of these binders in the hopes I would find a bargain. No such luck. It seems sweet foils have the same dollar-to-euro impact as newer cards.

Older Cards & Conditions

Not every card had this same problem. Surprisingly, many classic Legacy staples were priced comparably to the United States. For example, retailers were selling Underground Sea for around 110 euro. While this seems high for auction pricing, Star City Games is currently sold out of this Dual Land with a price of $159.99. The two are not very far off.

Vintage cards were in a similar boat. Unlimited Black Lotuses could be had for 800 euros, and even things like Mishras Workshops were priced comparably to the US, even after currency conversion. It seems that if a card has been on the market long enough, the price discrepancy slowly erodes over as cards are played, traded and bought/sold to reach ripe demand.

The only card I did pick up from a dealer this past weekend also fell into this category. I grabbed a MP German Lions Eye Diamond for 49 euro. While not spectacular, the recent jump in LED caused by Star City Games should mean this is the optimal time to make such an acquisition. I hope to bring this card to the US market and sell for it a small profit thanks to the rarity of German copies. Currently there is only one for sale on eBay, and I am confident I can beat this price and still profit.

I also understand that the Lions Eye Diamond I acquired was discounted due to its played condition. Most of the dealers were very concerned with this point. It seems many Europeans like to have their cards NM. Anything less is rather unacceptable. I asked one dealer how much they’d pay for a Vendilion Clique and they responded 20 euros. I felt this wasn’t bad, but then I recalled my copy was a little played. I asked his buy price on a played copy and he simply said “not interested”. Not even an offer was made!

Key Conclusions

Before leaving for this trip I decided not to sell out of Legacy at this event. Instead, I just trimmed down the collection so that I could maintain cards for two decks (should be three once I buy some cheap Tarmogoyfs after Modern Masters release).

This ended up being the right decision. Firstly, I was reminded of how amazing Legacy can be. The format has a strong, healthy following which suggests to me Wizards will likely continue some support for the format. Second, and more importantly, the buy prices of dealers in Europe are no better than the US when it comes to older staples such as Dual Lands. I would have carried with me the entire collection only to have found disappointing buy prices – and even worse on my played cards!

What will I plan for next time? Apparently I need to purchase more foil copies of newer Legacy staples. I was told that something like Aether Vial is hard to find in Europe, and I’d imagine set foils would demand quite the premium. Of course, foil Abrupt Decays are great for unloading in Europe as well.

While the arbitrage opportunity of a lifetime did not present itself, I still learned a good deal about how the European Magic market operates. And while I am far from expert, I hope to be able to apply this knowledge to help me grow as a MTG speculator in the future.

…

Due to my busy travel schedule, I will have to cancel Sigbits for this week. I will try to make up for this by providing double the Sigbits next week. Sorry for the inconvenience.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 12th

Posted on April 12, 2013January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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The MTGO-to-Paper Metric

Returning to this metric is a great way to get a feel for what the MTGO market is doing in a broad sense. For those who are unfamiliar with how it works, it's a simple ratio that takes the Supernova bots sell price for a complete set, and divides it by Star City Games complete set sell price (all prices current as of April 12th, 2013).

Although the metric is itself meaningless, and Star City Games prices might not be representative of the 'true' price of a set, the ratio is still useful. Considering how the ratio moves over time can guide us on where prices might be headed. I introduced the metric back in my August 17th, 2012 article and have periodically returned to it, so if you want to read up on it some more, dig through the archives.

The thing that underpins the utility of this metric is redemption. When cards are cheap to acquire online, redeemers will buy up cards in order to convert them to paper and capture the price difference. When cards are expensive online, online sets represent little value to redeemers, which removes a key component of demand.

As a general guideline, when the ratio is in the 0.3 to 0.45 ticket range, this represents a good buying opportunity. In the 0.45 to 0.65 range, there might be a few cards that are still individual buys, but overall this level of the ratio indicates the set does not represent good value. At levels of 0.65 or higher, caution is the recommended course of action and it might be time to broadly sell cards from these sets.

Set	MTGO-to-Paper Ratio (Feb 14th)	MTGO-to-Paper Ratio (Mar 14th)	MTGO-to-Paper Ratio (Apr 12th)	Supernova	SCG	Trend
Scars of Mirrodin	0.56	0.74	0.77	$96	$125	Up
Mirrodin Besieged	0.6	0.66	0.72	$72	$100	Up
New Phyrexia	0.84	0.9	1.03	$113	$110	Up
Magic 2012	0.52	0.61	0.58	$87	$150	Flat/Down
Innistrad	0.48	0.59	0.52	$143	$275	Down
Dark Ascension	0.62	0.77	0.75	$113	$150	Flat/Down
Avacyn Restored	0.64	0.71	0.64	$161	$250	Down
Magic 2013	0.52	0.56	0.52	$130	$250	Down
Return to Ravnica	0.44	0.57	0.79	$158	$200	Up
Gatecrash	0.39	0.35	0.32	$95	$300	Flat/Down

Checking in with the ratio for specific sets, we can see that Scars of Mirrodin (SOM) block has seen recent price strength. The ratios are all above 0.7 with New Phyrexia (NPH) having a very high ratio of 1.03, indicating almost no value for redeemers.

When paper set prices are lower than digital prices, any price strength must be coming from shifts in the online metagame. In this case it looks like Modern is establishing itself on MTGO as a format that players will play out of season, with R/G Tron being a popular choice. This has pushed up the price of Karn Liberated. Also in NPH, Batterskull has bounced back in price, most likely due to renewed interest in Legacy tied in with GP Strasbourg.

Looking at the ratio for Innistrad (ISD) block, these sets are seeing price weakness as players begin to look out towards rotation in the Fall. At some point prices will drop enough that redeemers will get interested in buying ISD block cards, but we are months away from that. We'll wait for the ratio to drop much lower and for rotation to be much closer before starting to buy ISD block mythics and rares.

The online price of Return to Ravnica (RTR) has been relatively constant in recent weeks, but the recent drop in SCG's price for the set has pumped up the ratio to a very high level. This is a strong signal to me that RTR as a set is just about fully priced. With the ratio at a high level, the price and value of RTR is determined solely within the MTGO economy, and is currently not well tied to paper prices at all. This level of the ratio is what we might expect to see in the Fall, after Theros has been released.

In the short term, the high price of RTR should encourage more RRR drafting which will bring prices down. Next, the switch over to DGR Limited will provide a further increase of supply. It would be unwise to speculate on the pricier cards from this set at the moment. Sphinx's Revelation recently hit a high of 47 tix and I don't expect this price to hold over the next two months. Increased supply from drafters will help, but the metagame shakeup from the release of DGM might also reduce the utility of that card. The recently spoiled Sire of Insanity might break up the party that the Azorius X-Spell has been throwing the last few months.

If RtR doesn't represent good value, then what about Gatecrash (GTC)? The ratio for this set is near the low of 0.33 that Magic 2013 saw back in the Summer. That turned out to be a very good buying opportunity as cards like Thundermaw Hellkite and Thragtusk were both under 10 tix at the time. However, with GTC being the first set with the new, higher redemption fee, we should revise downwards our expectation on how low the ratio could go. I'd expect the ratio to fully bottom out during Dragon's Maze (DGM) release events, but current prices still do represent good value and I have started more broad buying of GTC cards.

Portfolio Update

This is a brief rundown of what I am buying, selling and looking out for in the market.

Selling:

I've mostly sold down any rares from RTR that hit attractive prices, so there's been not much selling from RTR this past week. Prices seemed to have come off a bit for RTR rares.
Prime Speaker Zegana and Aurelia, the Warleader are two cards from GTC that I picked up during release events at reasonable prices and so I have sold these down with an eye on possibly rebuying during DGM release events.

Buying:

Frontline Medic in the 1-1.4 tix range and Gyre Sage for 0.75 tix or so. Both cards are probable Standard staples out of GTC, so I intend to establish positions of at least 50 copies over the next few weeks. Current price expectations around these cards are anchored since we're in a period of GGG drafting. Once GGG drafting stops, prices should rise.
The GTC versions of Watery Grave and Godless Shrine have both come down closer to 3 tix, so I have started buying these. I am avoiding the higher priced GTC shocklands at the moment, but at around 3 tix, any shockland should yield profits come the Fall.
GTC junk mythics in the 0.5 to 1.0 tix range have piqued my interest. Hellkite Tyrant, Deathpact Angel, Borborygmos Enraged and Lazav, Dimir Mastermind all seem like good value in different sections of that price range. There will be a supply push of junk mythics during DGM release events, and so I will finish up my buying of these at that time. I don't actively look for these cards, but I do pick them up when I see them at cheap prices.
Intruder Alarm is a card I have been picking up when I find cheap copies. It might find a home in Modern with Beck/Call from DGM and is from two lightly-printed sets. With any semblance of decency, this card will see a very strong price spike.

Watching:

GTC boosters have drifted down in price and I'd expect this trend to continue. A drop in GTC booster prices during DGM release events would suggest a good buying opportunity.
Mythic rares from SOM block have dropped in price somewhat, so I have stopped selling these for the moment.
Legacy staples have seen price strength recently, including Lion's Eye Diamond reaching an all-time high and even Force of Will has bounced back from it's recent depressed price level. The interest in Legacy has probably stalled price drops on cards like Tarmogoyf, despite the looming reprints coming in Modern Masters.
Duskmantle Seer has just popped up above 5 tix on Cardbot, probably due to the recent Sam Black article and video. These featured an aggro BUG list with 4 Duskmantle Seer at the top of the curve. I've stopped buying this one and will look to sell if it gets closer to 10 tix over the next couple of weeks. Otherwise, I will hold for the Fall.

Spoilers

Posted on April 11, 2013April 10, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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I figure now is as good a time as any to stop talking about the soon to rotate Standard format and to start talking about the things that threaten to change its face. At this point in time we don't have any Boros Reckoner or Burning Tree Emissary style role-players, but there are some interesting cards that I could see shaking things up. Let's just get right down into it.

Advent of the Wurm

This card is in a weird spot. It has some advantages over Restoration Angel in immunity to Mizzium Mortars and Ultimate Price, but it's harder to cast and is completely embarrassed by Azorius Charm. Not to mention that Resto's 187 is worth considerably more than +2/+1 and losing flying.

I'm inclined to believe that the weakness to Azorius Charm alone will keep this card relatively unplayed in terms of its abstract power level, but it seems quite powerful against decks that don't have such an effect. I recently ran into a GW deck intent on abusing Trostani, Selesnya's Voice that will no doubt jump at the change to produce five toughness tokens for a low rate, and such a deck is extremely good at winning creature mirrors. Curving Advent of the Wurm into Wolfir Silverheart is nothing to scoff at.

All in all I'd say that this is the type of card that very clearly gets some players very excited and it delivers a large body at an efficient rate. Expect it to be played. Don't expect it to be dominant.

Ral Zarek

When I first saw Ral Zarek I was very excited, but my excitement has depreciated the more thought that I've given to the card. Four mana is a considerably higher investment now than it was when Ajani Vengeant was all the rage in Standard.

It's generally good practice to ignore the ultimate of a Planeswalker when evaluating its power level. The text could literally read "take five additional turns and at the end of the fifth you win the game" and it wouldn't make much difference. The question that has been on my mind since I saw Ral spoiled was how to make the +1 ability matter.

For the most part giving a Boros Reckoner pseudo-vigilance is the best use that I can think of, as it also removes a blocker if attacking is your game plan. That said, It seems that a Boros Reckoner deck is going to have better options at four. Hellrider, Restoration Angel, Ghor-Clan Rampager... Pretty steep competition.

Alternatively, using Ral to untap a Guilded Lotus might be a thing. It's not the type of territory that I would intend to explore first, but losing to such a deck in the immediate future wouldn't be the most surprising thing that could happen.

The -2 ability is very clearly strong, and the ability to just use Ral as two Searing Spears is nothing to scoff at. In that respect Ral has some upside over Ajani Vengeant, but its +1 is presumably just worse.

I'm excited about this card, but not for a specific type of deck at this point. I fully expect it to make an impact on Standard at some point. Four mana Planeswalkers have a way of doing that.

Split Cards

If we're talking about split cards that have been spoiled thus far then Beck//Call is probably going to be the only one worth discussing. It has been speculated that this card will make a difference in Legacy and possibly make Elves a thing in Modern. I feel that these calls underestimate the difference between one/two mana and one/two colors. Wasteland is a thing. Spell Pierce is a thing. Spell Snare is a thing. Tacking a blue mana onto Glimpse of Nature is a recipe for awkward.

There is potential for Beck to make a splash in Standard with a little assistance from Elvish Archdruid, but one has to ask how much better relying on making a lot of mana from a 2/2 is than just committing to Prime Speaker Zegana.

As a more general note with the new split mechanic it's pretty clear that any split card where one side is playable as a lone card will be good. That was already obviously true of the old split cards. The new split cards, alternatively, are a lot better when both sides are narrow, as hitting on both sides is just going to be insane. Of course, if we see more things that are like Wear//Tear where the card is narrow and applies to very different situations we're probably better off sticking with real cards. It is likely that if you would want Wear//Tear you would rather have Ancient Grudge or Ray of Revelation, as it's unlikely for both Artifacts and Enchantments to be the cards that matter in the same matchup.

Maze's End

Patrick Chapin had some really good insights on this card and I'm pretty convinced that there are multiple types of decks that benefit from having a land like this. As Patrick points out, you don't even need to be trying to win the game with Maze's End to play it- just using it to tutor a few Gates in a three or four color deck seems more than worth it if you can afford a tempo hit.

Personally I see this as an automatic inclusion in those Fog-style Urban Evolution decks. Those decks do some pretty cool things but I really can't see myself ever willingly putting Enter the Infinite into my deck. Of course, Nephalia Drownyard and Ghost Quarter will make actually winning with Maze's End tricky, but nobody said it had to be your only win condition. If I still attended FNMs I would absolutely be bringing a deck that can only win with Maze's End though.

Alternatively, the tempo loss from playing a deck with a healthy amount of gates with Ravnica lands and M10 lands might prove too hard on a three color deck. Perhaps a two-color control deck that plays more basics and a few gates to search up to have a huge mana advantage late game. Blue White is the pair mostly likely to attempt this strategy seeing as Sphinx's Revelation is the best spell in Standard for such slow decks. At any rate I fully expect to see some Maze's Ends on the other side of the table, if not in my own decks. Card advantage generate from lands will ever be a real thing.

We're not exactly super-far in Spoiler season at this point, so it's hard to say exactly how much a given card will shake things up. That said, it's important to start to parse information as it comes simply because of how much more difficult it is to try to process everything at once. I can't say to a certainty whether Dragon's Maze will be an exciting set or not, but I will say that I'm excited for PT Dragon's Maze. While I myself did not Q, Matt Tickal and Troy Thompson of Minnesota both received special invites and I wish them the very best of luck on their first Pro Tour!

Thanks for reading,
Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Does Your Game Need a Tune-up?

Posted on April 11, 2013April 11, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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1. Identify the Problem

Tell me if this sounds familiar. For the last couple weeks or months, you have been playing a strong deck that you really like. This deck has definitely pulled its weight and won you some packs or store credit. You even took it to a bigger event and came close to winning big. It may be your own brew, your own version of a current deck, or just a straight net-decked list. Which category it falls into isn’t particularly important. Over the last few weeks, you found yourself slipping. Instead of winning FNM or a local cash event, your record looked more like 2-2 or 4-2 before dropping.

Being an experienced player, you try to analyze your mistakes from the event. You highlight a few plays you could have made differently but chalk the rest up to variance. After all, you have won a lot with this deck. Since you have so much experience with it by this point, you know exactly what changes you need to make in order to adapt to some new tech you saw other players using. Despite the work you put in, you are still not successful.

Pause a minute and think to yourself, is the deck I’m playing still good in the metagame? In the last few years Standard has shifted from week to week. If you don’t stay on top of the trends and new cards seeing play, you could find yourself in the situation above rather frequently. What should you do? Well, you have taken the first step and identified that there is a problem.

2. Research

A lot of good players think that they don’t need to read a bunch of articles each week. Many also think that if they don’t play for a couple of weeks that they can jump right back in with no penalties. These assumptions are simply not true anymore. You can certainly keep your Standard deck from six months ago and start playing again anytime you want, but you shouldn’t expect to start winning events with it immediately.

The most important part of Magic these days is staying up to date with the leading decks. Is it part of your normal routine to check the coverage from the latest Star City, TCG Player, or PTQ top eight? Are you analyzing what decks have a pattern of doing well in these events? Do you follow pros on Twitter so you can stay up to date on the trends they let you in on? These are all things you can do to get better and be more successful at Magic.

Once you're up to date on the competitive metagame, you can start thinking about how your deck fits in. If you don't see any other players succeeding with your current deck choice, it doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad choice, but you should consider that possibility. Analyze your matchups with the most popular decks. If they aren’t some of your most favorable, there is a good chance you need to take action.

3. Tweaking

One thing you can do is change your deck up a bit so that it interacts better with the metagame. This can be things like changing the removal suite to deal with particular threats more efficiently or adding different types of threats to attack from different angles. Maybe you found a card no one has been playing that you think has a lot of potential. After all, someone has to start playing cards like Gyre Sage before the rest of us catch on. Many cards fall into this category. With recent sets it seems like more and more cards are playable so keep your eyes open for hidden gems.

If you've changed up your deck list and still aren’t faring any better, the time may have come to set it down and move on.

4. How Do You Move On?

I use a couple strategies when looking for a new deck. The first is to develop my own deck from scratch. Especially when there are only a few tier one decks, an angle of attack can be found to exploit a hole in those strategies. At the beginning of Gatecrash Standard, I did this with Naya Zoo. At that time, no one was playing Experiment One or any super-aggressive decks. They were still caught up in the previous slow and grindy metagame. I took advantage of that but was unable to turn it into a top eight due to some misplays which cost me matches. Now, Naya Blitz is a big part of the format and lots of players are taking the updated version to events.

If you’ve read my column at all, you know that I love rogue decks that are also good. It is not always correct to play a rogue deck though. Sometimes you need a different strategy.

The second option is to update an existing deck. Someone had to tune Naya Blitz and update it from versions like mine into the deck it is today. A big part of that was identifying the power of Burning-Tree Emissary. This concept happens a lot because players are constantly trying to improve their decks to beat other players using the same strategy and adapting their deck to other break-out decks. Since this is a hard concept to convey, I have a great example to show you.

Blue Jund

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Arbor Elf

3 Huntmaster of the Fells

3 Evil Twin

4 Thragtusk

3 Olivia Voldaren

Spells

2 Tragic Slip

4 Farseek

2 Ground Seal

1 Dreadbore

2 Mizzium Mortars

1 Murder

2 Rakdoss Return

3 Liliana of the Veil

3 Garruk, Primal Hunter

Lands

3 Blood Crypt

4 Overgrown Tomb

4 Stomping Ground

1 Breeding Pool

1 Steam Vents

3 Rootbound Crag

3 Dragonskull Summit

4 Woodland Cemetery

1 Kessig Wolf Run

1 Forest

Jund is a popular deck that has done well for quite some time. Various versions have existed and it is an adaptable strategy, so you can keep changing up cards to improve different matchups. Recently I have felt that it was well-positioned except against one deck, Reanimator. The Junk Reanimator deck is typically at an advantage because their end game is so much better than that of Jund.

A few Bant decks have adopted the use of Clone as an anti-Angel of Serenity plan. That same strategy can be used to great effect with an upgraded clone effect. Despite the fact that Evil Twin has been overshadowed by both Phyrexian Metamorph and Phantasmal Image, it is still a solid card. Not only can it kill some potent legendary threats like Geist of Saint Traft and Olvia Voldaren, but copying any other powerful creature is a valid line of play as well. Even if your opponent has no potent threats, you can always copy your own Thragtusks. By cutting a couple removal spells and tweaking the mana, Evil Twin was an easy addition. Keep your eyes open for possibilities like this.

The third option you have is to jump on the bandwagon of a new break-out deck. When a new deck takes the metagame by storm, it often takes some time for players to adapt. Many players apply similar ideas to those above in response to a new deck becoming known. Sometimes it isn't good enough to just make adjustments to old decks. Take a look at the latest addition to decks that fit this criteria.

The Aristocrats: Act 2

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Doomed Traveler

4 Cartel Aristocrat

3 Skirsdag High Priest

4 Blood Artist

4 Boros Reckoner

4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

1 Zealous Conscripts

Spells

4 Tragic Slip

3 Blasphemous Act

4 Lingering Souls

Lands

4 Blood Crypt

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Godless Shrine

4 Dragonskull Summit

1 Clifftop Retreat

4 Isolated Chapel

1 Vault of the Archangel

2 Plains

Sideboard

2 Sorin Lord of Innistrad

3 Intangible Virtue

2 Dreadbore

3 Duress

1 Thundermaw Hellkite

2 Zealous Conscripts

1 Blasphemous Act

1 Purify the Grave

If you watched the coverage of the Star City events last week or if you like Brad Nelson, you probably know about this deck. I think it's still more under the radar than it should be. It already has a PTQ win and an SCG top eight, but I think that is just the beginning for this deck.

The list may seem innocent at first, but the ability to not only wipe the board but deal your opponent thirteen or more damage with one spell will end a lot of games. The only thing you really have to give up from the old version is the aggressive starts offered by Champion of the Parish. Not only does this deck have great matchups against every midrange deck, Junk Reanimator included, but it also has game against the aggressive decks. Game one against Esper Control can be tough, but after sideboarding you become a much better deck against them as well.

Whichever decision you come to, anything is better than struggling week after week because you are stuck on the same deck and didn't realize that was the problem. This process can work for anyone, so if you find yourself in this position, come back to this article and look it over again. Every time I prepare for a PTQ, Grand Prix, or independent cash tournament, I revisit this line of thinking. Even though we have been playing Standard for a while, you almost need to prepare for each event like it’s the start of a new format. Make sure you are the one on top of the trends and you will be more successful.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force of your tuned game!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Of Curios, Druids and Birds

Posted on April 11, 2013December 23, 2013 by Corbin Hosler

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This is the card that set the wheels in motion when it was spoiled Sunday night. I immediately made two moves upon reading the card.

The first, a simple statement to my buddy and established Elves pro Joe Naseef:

"You just got Glimpse of Nature back in Modern. Go."

And the second, a late-night feverish e-mail to Doug, Kelly and Sig that precipitated the Insider blast you all received.

“I assume you guys will see this when you wake up in the morning and I’m still asleep, but Beck (of Beck//Call) could do some nasty things for Elves in Modern. The uncommons like Heritage Druid or even something like Cloudstone Curio and/or Primal Command (which used to be the wincon but I assume is now superseded by Emrakul and/or Craterhoof) could see movement. If not now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen next season. Seems like a turn 3-4 combo deck with a plan B of playing “all the huge dudes.” Joraga Warcaller is also not a bad target since he’s a sink for all that mana if you don’t have something infinite.

Rambly, but my thoughts.”

The aftermath, of course, is history at this point. Curio is $10 everywhere cards are sold, despite no one having actually sleeved up a deck yet.

This is a classic hype-based spike, and while it’s old habit for many of us, chances are this is new for some of you here. So today I want to walk through the effect this will have on the market, what the risks are and what you should be focusing on.

The Cards

Cloudstone Curio

The big one, and one I’m glad we caught for you guys (with a shoutout to Nick for spearheading this in the forums). Curio was a part of the old (old) Extended Elves deck and along with some casual appeal was already priced around $2.

Everyone has now listed theirs around $10, which is a baseline moving forward. So the question is, do you sell now or hold on longer?

The buy price right is $4.50 or so, so getting in at $2 has been an easy double-up, and chances are you can get rid of these through an outlet other than buylist (whether it be trading, the LGS, TCGPlayer or eBay).

So what to do? For me, it’s an easy answer, one of my most basic rules of speculating which I’ve hammered home time and again.

Sell into the hype.

The price is only coming down from here as people list theirs to get rid of, so the earlier you move yours, the better. Remember Scapeshift? When Valakut was unbanned the card spiked to more than $10, and I sold mine at that price. Now it’s widely available under $8 retail, so even though the deck panned out, holding onto your copies was a mistake.

I suspect the same is true of Curios. I think the Elves deck will be viable assuming nothing is banned, but it’s just another deck in the field meaning Curio is unlikely to continue going up. Make your profits, leave the last ten percent to the next guy and move on to the next target.

Heritage Druid

Somewhat surprisingly to me, this hasn’t made a move yet. It’s just as integral to the deck as Curio and is played in the Legacy build, so it’s not like demand is going to drop from its current level. On those merits, I think this is a great target both as a cheap cash buy and in trade.

But what about Modern Masters? This is the most common response I’ve heard, and people assume it will be in there. My question is, why are we assuming that?

Look, I get that speculating on cards that could be in the set are dangerous, but with something this cheap you’re not risking a ton since buylists at the time of the Modern Masters reveal aren’t going to plummet overnight.

Not to mention that this wasn’t exactly a staple before now. The card hasn’t been played at all in Modern, and there are a ton of other cards Wizards is looking to reprint as much if not more than this. It also plays into an elf theme, and we have no evidence to suggest Modern Masters is going to support tribal mechanics.

That’s a lot of strikes against its inclusion. No, it doesn’t mean it won’t be in there, just that it takes more than the threat of a reprint to scare me away from this card.

Nettle Sentinel

This is really just a reminder to pull these out of bulk boxes and such. It’s a 30-cent common that sometimes fetches a dime from dealers now. Come Modern season next year, if combo Elves is a deck, you may end up getting a quarter or even 50 cents since it’s not like Eventide set the world on fire with the number of boxes opened.

Craterhoof Behemoth

I don’t think there’s a play to be made on this right now because of how much Standard influences it. That said, come the release of Theros, rotating cards like this are going to plummet. That will create a cheap trade-in opportunity with the potential for spikes down the road if the deck becomes and/or stays a real thing in Modern.

Joraga Warcaller

Like I said in the email above, I’m not sure if this or Ezuri, Renegade Leader will find a home in the deck or if it will always just be Craterhoof or Emrakul. That said, both are examples of the ever-popular “Elf Lord” so it’s not like trading into these already was a bad idea.

Elvish Archdruid

It’s certainly seen its share of reprints, but the “cast-all-the-Elves-and-hardcast-Craterhoof” backup is actually a thing, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this find a home. That said, the upside is somewhat limited due to the number of copies, although I’ve never had a problem moving these either.

Intruder Alarm/Sprout Swarm

Jason’s big on this iteration of the deck. With no testing I can’t say anything about it except to keep it on your radar, as Intruder Alarm especially could spike if that became the plan. It’s also worth noting that unlike Glimpse, Beck will trigger off of Sprout Swarm.

Regal Force

I think this is also a great target, and one that hasn’t moved much. But it has been on a steady incline for the last year, so I’m pretty sure this is primed for either a big jump or a continued rise. Either way, it’s a great target.

Ranger of Eos

This used to be played as a one- or two-of to find missing combo pieces after someone dismantles your hand. I’m not sure that the deck can play all three colors, although Deathrite Shaman obviously helps a ton. Ranger is something to take note of and maybe start grabbing cheaply.

Ethereal Usher/Muddle the Mixture

Both transmute for Beck for three mana, which adds some redundancy. After that, there are positives and negatives to each. While Mixture offers some protection, Usher is a creature that can be cast if you end up in a situation with plenty of mana while comboing but still need to churn. Again, likely not much of an opportunity here besides pulling them out of bulk, but I wanted to mention it.

Summoners Pact

The last card I’ll talk about is one I expect to be played but at $15 has a fairly limited upside for the initial investment, especially since it’s a real Modern Masters candidate. Still, if Elves breaks out at the next Modern tournament a spike to $20+ is not unreasonable.

Birds!

It's in the article title, so it has to be here, right? Anyway, one probably-meaningless-but-possibly-not upside to Beck//Call is that once you've started generating all the mana with your Elves you could conceivably fuse it for full value.

Build Your Strategy

I’ve talked about it before, but remember you must filter all these considerations through your own perceptions. Plenty of people don’t think the deck will be good, and if you agree don’t go out of your way to pick up these cards. Wait and see what happens at the next big event and maybe you can buy out the internet cheaply then.

But I know personally I’ll be on the lookout for these cards because I want to have some in hand if/when the movement happens. And with a lot of these, even if Elves never breaks out in Modern there’s really limited downside, which is always my number one reason for liking a spec.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Modern Cards in Trade

Posted on April 10, 2013January 17, 2022 by Jared Elick

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Modern season is over, and a lot of us still have Modern staples sitting around. Many are trying to get rid of them but I don't think that's the correct option. We have something we have not seen in a while –- Modern FNM.

I have been trading and selling off my Modern staples quickly, even to people who don't frequent large events. For this reason, I have continued picking up Modern cards in trade –- with a few focuses. I'll go over a few of my favored targets here.

The great thing about Eternal cards is they are often popular EDH or casual cards as well. This makes it easier to trade them.

Cheap Decks

I covered this in one of my previous articles –- cheap Modern decks. A few of them in particular are common among casual-competitive players.

Soul Sisters/Martyr Proc

This deck has a few great targets. You want to have the cards no one else has for trade, so don't waste your time with Soul Warden.

Serra Ascendant, if you can get them cheap, will trade fast, both to EDH players (a turn one 6/6 flier? Sounds good) and to Modern players. Some B/W Tokens lists run this as well.

Ranger of Eos is great as well, and is played in some Zoo lists.

Path To Exile is just always a great card to have. They trade well, they sell well, and make your binder's C/U section look great.

Monoblue Tron

The great thing about this deck is that most of the targets are EDH staples, or at the least popular EDH cards. You will get a lot of demand for this stuff.

Platinum Angel is a card that fits what every casual player loves. It's a large creature, and it has a ridiculous ability.

Wurmcoil Engine is played in all Tron decks, and is just a great thing to own. Honestly, I see this guy hitting up to $15 in a year or so, if Tron continues to be a popular archetype.

Solemn Simulacrum is one of my favorite targets. It dropped to $2 at rotation, and has slowly creeped to $3. It is a popular EDH card (I think it's in every deck with my EDH group) and seems to do well in trades.

Oblivion Stone is a card that we've seen a lot of recent increase on. In fact, I ended up with nearly 30 copies of this card pretty quickly. I see it stabilizing, but we may see slow increases next Modern season.

B/W Tokens

Tokens is a popular archetype because it can be built in a lot of ways, and hell, it's just fun. I love playing a three-drop and getting three 3/3 fliers.

Elspeth, Knight-Errant is not only a great planeswalker, but also played in a few decks. B/W tokens, Martyr, and even white EDH decks. She is also pretty fun with Doubling Season, as if she resolves, your stuff is indestructible immediately. 'Nuff said.

Auriok Champion is a great card. With Honor of The Pure it really punishes Jund, and it gains a healthy bit of life. These are very tough to find; I've rarely seen them in a binder.

Honor of The Pure was a great card in Standard, and it continues to be great in Modern. It is reasonably better than Intangible Virtue in nearly any situation.

Again, I know the #1 response I'll get from this. Modern Masters. Modern Masters is releasing, and it will reprint a lot of cards. However, I think that commons and uncommons will be the biggest ones to worry about.

There is one other big thing, so large that 53 rares could hardly have an impact...

Land!

Yes, lovely, beautiful mana fixing. I love picking these up. They sell at great prices online, they trade well to EDH players, and they are just great cards to own. I'll go over a few of my favorites to grab out of binders.

Shadowmoor/Eventide Filter Lands

These cards have shot up -- and likely will stay there. They allow for things like turn one Champion of the Parish, turn two Ash Zealot, turn three Mirran Crusader without a hitch, and even with a basic Plains in the mix! The Eventide ones are the most expensive, and will get you the most trades. The Shadowmoor ones are also pretty good, although cheaper. They also have some room to grow.

Onslaught/Zendikar Fetchlands

The Onslaught lands have actually been moving upwards lately, alongside the Zendikar ones. Likely we will not see too much more movement on Zendikar fetches until Modern picks up again. this makes all of them great trade targets, and great ways to get those cards you want out of someone's binder!

Scars Duals

Yeah, we all love these. Way too cheap for the amount of play they see. I still like Blackcleave Cliffs the most, as Razorverge Thicket has dropped a bit in popularity. We all expect a rise next Modern season, and through the next couple of years.

Utility Lands

These are a bit tougher to categorize. They are played lands that have abilities other than mana production. Note that manlands are covered separately in the next section.

Academy Ruins -- Monoblue Tron and EDH, even Vintage plays this card.

Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle -- This is just played in Valakut. Some Red EDH decks may play it as a filler nonbasic. However, they trade well.

Tectonic Edge -- This is played in a few decks, and is an EDH staple. I'd worry less about the promos as tournament often players want nonfoils.

Manlands

These guys are great. Living through board wipes and dealing the final points. They also make attacks scary, and Liliana of The Veil worse.

Raging Ravine -- Jund loves it, and so should you. This guy gets especially insane late game. It is a large reason that Wrath does not destroy Jund. He's mainly a Modern card, but he may be in a few casual/EDH decks as well.

Mutavault -- Just be that guy who has a Mutavault for trade. Oh, the offers you will get. Most tribal decks want it, and even some nontribal run these as late beaters.

I'm working on a fun write-up for next week that I think you'll all enjoy. I couldn't get it finished for this week, but look for it next week.

Until next time -- don't forget to pick up foils!