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Hello everyone! With the newly released Dark Ascension spoilers fully revealed, I thought it would be a great time to do some speculating, since that's half the fun of trading!
I have always been a fan of Zombies, whether movies, books, or Left for Dead, they are pretty interesting creatures. Once I saw that Innistrad was going to have some Zombie support, I immediately got excited. By the time all of the spoilers were out, I already had a full proxied EDH deck with several cards preordered with Grimgrin-Corpse Born was my Commander.
He has been one of my favorite cards ever since he was spoiled and I can see him getting a boost in price. But why? Because of Gravecrawler, the new one-drop found in Dark Ascension.
Zombies!
This card is amazing. Almost.
Gravecrawler has everything going for it: it's a 2/1 for 1 and can combo great with Grimgrin-Corpse Born, but it still needs a home other than a 1 of in an EDH deck for it to actually have a worthy price tag. With that being said, I think that might be its downfall.
Another card came to mind while I was thinking about Gravecrawler: Stromkirk Noble. Stromkirk Noble is a one-drop, and a very good one at that for Red Deck Wins. Stromkirk Noble did not have a role in Red Deck Wins until a couple weeks after its release, where it took off in price. It went from $3-4 to up to $12 at its height, now bellowing out at around $5.
My advice with Gravecrawler is to stock up, but realize when the right time is to get rid of them. In paper Magic, whether a card has a home or not, it is hard to get rid of a lot of cards unless you are able to frequently go to tournaments across the states.
I would not pick up more than 8-10 of these if you decide to. My general rule is to fill one page in a binder, of nine cards. That way I have a playset and a number not be hard to get rid of. And hey, if all goes wrong, at least you have a nice looking page!
Beyond the one-drops, let's take a look at all of the new Zombies that are coming out from Dark Ascension.
I have mixed feelings about Geralf's Mindcrusher. For Innistrad limited block, this card will be a great fatty, aid you in milling out your opponent (especially with it having Undying) and will even benefit you in the self milling decks, but other than that, I do not see it going anywhere in standard.
Does this card make you think of any card from Innistrad? Yep, me too: Skaab Ruinator. This card will be seen all over limited, not only is it a cheap x/6. Like Mindcrusher, I do not see it having any play in Standard as of this meta, but this may be a reason to force Blue if you get a couple of these in your draft early on.
There are always cards in the set that I do not understand why they were printed.
This card is one of them. For 2U, you can have our friendHeadless Skaab, which is much harder to get over, especially in limited. With that being said, this does have Undying, so this card will have its uses. What they are is yet long lost in a brewers mind.
I know that I am mentioning a lot of self mill limited decks, but this is the kind of deck that Innistrad and Dark Ascension compliment. Screeching Skaab is a very good two-drop for your limited self mill decks. Either this card or Shriekgeist will go very well in that aerchtype.
Yes this is a Zombie, but it really is not worth a spot in any deck. If Black Cat had Undying, this would be a totally different story, but it doesn't so I would suggest putting it back with your bulk commons.
Here we go. This is what we have all been waiting for. Some good Zombies! For BBB, you're almost guaranteed to make your opponent lose 4 life. And it's a 3/2, which isn't too bad. Bummer it can't deliver its two damage to your opponent or creature. If that were the case, this card would simply be great.
Letās get the Undying engine rolling! Mikaeus comes back with revenge after getting bitten from a Zombie (I'm guessing here, as I'm not sure on the lore, but that is usually how one becomes a Zombie). And he's stronger than ever.
Even though it costs as much as a titan, it has Intimidation, which can be surprisingly helpful when U/W Delver is a common deck. After the Titans are rotated out, I see this card rising in value and will be a great EDH card nevertheless.
Meet my favorite Zombie in Dark Ascension.
For 1BU this cards is great. Deathtouch is a very crucial ability with so many swords running around in the current meta, and the +1/+1 boost is a way to get even more bang for your buck. Especially after most of the new zombies get their own +1/+1 from Undying.
I think that this card has a lot of synergy with Grimgrin. You can activate Havengul Lichās ability to give it Undying and then do a loop with Grimgrinās untapping ability to keep giving Grimgrin +1/+1 while only paying 2. While this is an end game combo, since it is mana heavy, I think that it could be successful and at least make Grimgrin somewhat playable.
Speculate on the Speculation!
This is the biggest thing you can do during spoiler season! Why? Because everyone thinks that a certain deck is going to be the next big thing. So why not work with the contrast of their predictions and yours?
This brings us back to Grimgrin. I personally think that there will be a good deck with Grimgrin, Unbreathing Horde, and Gravecrawler, and I know many people in real life and Twitter that think the same. Most of the people interested in these cards will likely be of the casual variety, wishing to build fun casual and EDH decks, so consider your audience and trading partner's preferred formats when on the trading floor.
I cannot say that I am a trading mastermind. Not even close. But that is why we have social networks and a great selection of Magic writers online. Ask your friends on Facebook or some people on Twitter what they think! If the general public thinks a card is going south, it is probably too late to move them at a reasonable profit, so talk to people before it's to late and follow what the fantastic Insider writers at Quiet Speculation have to say.
So go out and brew up some cool decks and go speculate on Dark Ascension!
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Every so often it is wise to reassess oneās collection and identify which cards are performing as expected and which are falling flat. Usually, I perform this evaluation every time a significant change in MTG happens.
Well, over the next couple weeks there are going to be a couple of these changes. First, Dark Ascension is going to be released and become Standard legal. This set, while seemingly underwhelming to some degree, will still have an impact on the Standard metagame.
Second, Modern season will commence. This format is wide open at the moment thanks to all the recent bannings, and I anticipate some hefty price swings as a result.
Standard: Re-evaluating Potential Strategies
A few themes from Dark Ascension immediately jump out at me. First, it seems that a B/W deck is inevitable. This includes the printing of Sorin, Lord of Innistrad along with many synergistic humans and a Vault of the Archangel.
Second, it seems that Wizards is again pushing for a B/R Vampires deck in Standard. Such a deck may remain underwhelming, but having the ability to run premier removal alongside Olivia Voldaren and Falkenrath Aristocrat is a strategy worth at least considering. Perhaps a third color splash could even make the deck more viable.
Finally, Dark Ascension is continuing to drive home the importance of the Graveyard. But this emphasis is not consistent in strategy. For example, a card like Ghoultree synergizes well with Kessig Cagebreakers and the likes of Armored Skaab, Deranged Assistant, and Forbidden Alchemy. Meanwhile, cards like Skaab Ruinator aim to thin your Graveyard, making these two themes incompatible.
Knowing all of this, I have what I need to make an educated evaluation of my speculation targets over the past couple months. In all honesty, some cards I have acquired will likely not pay out as expected. On the other hand, some cards may still have potential.
The most obvious change in mindset involves poor Skaab Ruinator. Before Dark Ascension spoilers began, I had enough confidence that this 5/6 flier would synergize so well with this set that I picked up a playset. Fortunately, I kept my speculative buying of this card in check and I managed to keep my average purchase price to less than four dollars each. After testing this card myself and witnessing how awkward it can be in light of Dark Ascension, I have decided this card is no longer worth having. He is very powerful, but it is SO AWKWARD to play him more than once in a game.
Meanwhile, on the bullish side I still really like the Innistrad Dual Lands (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).
Just two short weeks ago I emphasized how these cards were all hitting their bottom. Thanks to Sorin, Lord of Innistrad, Isolated Chapel has seen a bump sooner than the others. Star City Games now sells this particular B/W land for $7.99. This is not the ceiling.
The other Innistrad Dual Lands havenāt yet responded this drastically, mainly because their utility in the new Standard is less obvious. But do not be deceived. These lands will be in Standard for quite some time still, and there will be plenty of opportunities for the format to shift direction, driving up the price of some of the other Innistrad Dual Lands. If you donāt have your sets, I would highly recommend you move in while these cards are near a bottom.
I have also begun acquiring Innistrad cards that synergize well with having cards in the Graveyard. I like Kessig Cagebreakers and Splinterfright in particular. Both cards sell for around $0.40 each and may become fringe playable when Dark Ascension becomes legal. And while I commend my colleague for purchasing 94 of them (https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/01/a-frightful-tale-my-speculation-story/), I most likely would pick up just a couple extras as trade throw-ins.
The final card I want to mention in Standard is Visions of Beyond (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).
I made a call on this card a while back, indicating possible synergies with the Graveyard themes of Innistrad and Dark Ascension. Clearly, the card has not broken out in any measurable form. However, a clear bottom has occurred in the above chart and every Graveyard card spoiled (e.g. Increasing Confusion) gives me slightly more hope for Visions of Beyond. I have my set and I may trade for a couple more. But my rating on this one for now is āholdā, as there seems to be some better opportunities elsewhere.
Latest Modern Developments
Modern season is upon us and now is the time to pay very close attention to shifting metagames for potential pick-ups. For example, I have read some buzz on Twitter about a Merfolk deck once again becoming viable. Chris Davis from Channel Fireball has even taken a Merfolk build through a Daily Modern Event on MTGO with decent success. Wizards may have finally banned enough cards to make this strategy viable.
Another trend that seemingly popped up overnight is the mono-W lifegain Martyr deck. Taking a page out of an older Extended deck, this brew strives to gain giant amounts of life and implements Serra Ascendant for major life-swinging beatdowns.
Other noteworthy Modern deck brews include a return of Jund, the ever-present Past in Flames storm decks, and my personal favorite, Melira-Pod. Each of these decks appears to have a home in this tumultuous Modern metagame.
Naturally, as Modern evolves and stabilizes there will be some windows of opportunity for profit. On the other hand, some previously well-positioned cards may have fallen out of favor.
In fact, one card that I have recently scaled back on buying is Past in Flames:
I admit to purchasing 14 copies of this card in a heartbeat when they dropped to $3 apiece. They have made a reasonable rebound, but seeing a card like Graftdigger's Cage spoiled in Dark Ascension has immediately turned me off. Additionally, players have begun playing Ethersworn Canonist in their main decks making the uphill battle with this card even more daunting. Do I see this deck impacting the metagame? Absolutely. Will I hold onto a few? At $3.50 each, why not? Have I sold most of the 14 copies? You betcha. I am way too risk averse to ride this card much further.
What should I do with the cash made from selling my Past in Flames? I should focus on purchasing cards with better potential upside, of course! With the resurfacing of Merfolk strategies, I like Aether Vial (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).
This card peaked over $10, but has since traced back into single digits. Many creature decks will benefit from playing Vial, but Merfolk decks in particular love playing free, instant-speed creatures while holding up counterspells.
Speaking of counterspells, which versions do we think Merfolk may run? It is hard to predict so early in the season, but I would like to nominate Cryptic Command. It will probably never reach its Standard highs of $20, but the card commonly sells on eBay for $11 and could reach as high as $15. If anything, this card will remain easy to trade for and away for as long as Modern is a format.
There are so many other cards with potential in this format that it is difficult to name them all. If Black finally becomes a relevant color in Modern, cards like Dark Confidant, Thoughtseize, and Maelstrom Pulse all become strong buys. In fact, these three in particular have already seen a small rebound in price. Maelstrom Pulse in particular may already be a wise card to acquire because of Jundās popularity.
Change is Good
Significant events in the MTG community such as new set releases and PTQ seasonal changes all merit a re-evaluation of trade strategy. Ignoring these forces is not recommended. Sometimes it is wise to sell some cards for a loss that did not pan out rather than holding them all the way down to bulk rares in the hopes that they see play.
I myself have purged my Skaab Ruinators and Past in Flames in light of these recent events. By selling now I manage to avoid significant losses, enabling me to purchase cards with greater promise. If I donāt do this I would be throwing good money after bad ā an unwise business practice.
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Alara Reborn was audacious, for the simple fact that the entire set is composed of gold cards. In retrospect, it was phenomenally risky - gold cards, like gold itself, have a cachet that comes from being numerically rare in a set. When sets have only four or five gold cards in the whole folio, opening one makes the pack more exciting. When "goldness" is reduced to a mechanic that says "you get a slight discount on these abilities," it loses a lot of its punch. Nonetheless, I think Alara Reborn was a fine set. People like to play lots of colors in their casual decks, and ARB made it possible to support three or more colors without a painfully expensive manabase. It also packed in some fantastic cards, from power uncommons to greatly efficient utility rares. Oh, and there are dragons, too!
Bloodbraid Elf
$1.50
I remember that when this card was spoiled, people knew it was good, but only Patrick Chapin was talking about how incredible it was. The elf is a Lightning Bolt, a Black Lotus, a Fog and a cantrip wrapped up in one card, depending on what you want to make of it. It formed the bedrock of the Jund deck, cascading into Lightning Bolt and Sprouting Thrinax and racking up card advantage each time. It was a prime reason that Demonfire didn't see much play - you didn't want to cascade into an X=0 spell.
Bloodbraid Elf was so strong that people looked to put it into everything. You could run it in Five Color Control and hope to rip an Esper Charm from it. You could Cascade into a Sedraxis Specter if you wanted to. Bloodbraid Elf doesn't see much play these days, but it is still a premiere spell for what you get at four mana. It's a card so powerful that the Jund strategy solidly contained Jace, the Mind Sculptor for most of its run in Standard.
Dragon Broodmother
$3.25
And a Broodmother it is! You can have the first token eat Momma, or it can snack on a field of Saprolings. You can stock up on little Dragonlings for several turns and then let the next one eat all the rest. The ability to repeatedly make tokens, especially ones with Devour, is great. We know how strong a card like Verdant Force is; a monster spawner that can make evasive giants is even better. It's not competitively worthy, but the Broodmother remains a casual killer.
Jenara, Asura of War
$2.00
I remember that when Jenara came out, people positively lost it because we all perceived it as a tournament-staple mythic rare. A 3/3 flier for 3 that can grow when you have spare mana is a solid monster - she can even come down on the second turn with a Noble Hierarch. I tend to think that Jenara has a yet-undiscovered spot in Modern; she's not as efficient as Tarmogoyf, but she's a fine second to the Goyf when you already have four of them in the deck. Jenara can become so big, so quickly, that you can just invest some mana in her and ride it to victory; fliers are quite rare in Modern.
Jenara is also a stellar general in Commander; she comes down cheaply and you can make her much bigger when you get into the later game.
Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund
$3.00
Karrthus is a heck of a play in Commander. With only one other Dragon down, you can slam someone apart. He even saw play as a trump in Oath of Druids decks in Vintage - you see, Hellkite Overlord was the Oath creature at the time. A crafty opponent could take a swing from your Overlord and then Oath up Karrthus, taking the Overlord and frequently killing you in the process.
Lord of Extinction
$4.25
This guy is some sort of Super-Goyf, getting above 20/20 pretty easily. Unfortunately, it cannot best the slightest blocker without evasion. I must think that I'd run a Kessig Wolf Run or four to make sure this can contact. It's a total killer on a Commander table; if you're caught without creatures, then it's goodbye. That's what drives this casual card up to a few dollars.
Maelstrom Pulse
$8.00
A Vindicate with a tradeoff; you can't kill lands, but you can evaporate a token army. You can score a two-for-one. You can unwind a dangerous board position. Maelstrom Pulse is a fantastic control card, sweeping away twin Tarmogoyfs, dual Blood Moons or marauding Memnites.
Pulse has dropped a little from its highs at $14, but it is still a power rare, with some new attention from Modern. If Jund breaks out in Modern, we could see this rise up a few dollars.
Meddling Mage
$2.25
My, how the mighty mage has fallen. Meddling Mage held a legitimate place in older Standard and Extended, because there were only two or three relevant kill spells. The first Mage chanted away the Terminate and then the subsequent ones could confine game-winning spells from the opponent. These days, a 2/2 for 2 that has only a slight impact on the board is less powerful. Even in Standard, there was an incredible abundance of different kill spells. You could fight Jund's Terminates, but their Lightning Bolts and Maelstrom Pulses would still get through. UW could stop it with Path to Exile or Jace. All in all, Meddling Mage is more appropriately titled Middling Mage these days.
Mind Funeral
$2.25
Mind Funeral is a heck of a milling card and it appeals to a casual player because it seemingly punishes someone for being greedy about their lands. Mind Funeral can torch fifteen cards for three mana, making it one of the more efficient milling spells around. It's a sleeper casual uncommon hit; check your junk binders and move the ones you find!
Nemesis of Reason
$2.50
If there were a creature that persuasively encouraged milling, this is probably it. Every time it swings through, with that seven-toughness rear, it chomps about a fifth or more of the opponent's library. It doesn't matter if they're hiding behind a million tokens and a thousand life if they lack cards to draw. Nemesis is not a compelling creature in a non-milling deck, but it's a fine thematic pounder for an opponent who loves their Tome Scours.
Sen Triplets
$2.25
This wins the award for the longest creature type line.
The Triplets are a really interesting creature for a casual deck; you get to Mindslaver an opponent in a way, or at least shut down their reactive spells. Importantly, you cannot tap their lands to pay their spells, but if you have things like Prismatic Lenses around, that's not much of a problem. My big gripe with the Triplets is that they are very fragile for the mana cost and ability. I'd love to untap with these in play, but I'd much rather sneak them out with a Quicksilver Amulet to expose them for less time.
Sphinx of the Steel Wind
$4.50
You can see why people call this RoboKroma. If this thing came with Haste, I'd be cramming it into every deck that I could, thanks to that lifelink. As it is, this Sphinx still bashes aggressive decks apart. It dodges all kinds of removal and skips out on Doom Blade and Go For The Throat, too. I doubt that there's a competitive format where you would pay eight mana for this, but it has seen play in Vintage as a Tinker target.
Thraximundar
$5.75
Thraximundar has really picked up in price after Innistrad. Take a look at the BLP graph and notice that it'd been as low as $2.00 last July. I picked up my copy then and I was surprised to see how high it went up. My best guess is that Thrax is a great general in Commander - he'll assassinate any solitary monster that an opponent has out and he grows bigger with every sacrifice that happens on a big table. Mostly, I think the Innistrad-timed bump happened because a lot of people, myself included, became interested in Zombie Commander decks. This is the best legendary Zombie around, and it's in the correct colors for a really slick deck.
Uril, the Miststalker
$1.50
When Uril came out, people immediately pegged it as a Commander killer of epic proportions. Tack an Armadillo Cloak or a Rancor on it and just ride that general damage all the way. Since this guy is Hexproof, you can be sure that absent a sweeper, he's not going anywhere. Uril hitting the board definitely makes people treat the U/W Commander a little better!
That wraps it up for Alara Block! It's a fun and profitable set and it's highly useful for a trader. One need look only at this set review to see the piles of casual crack that a good trader can move. You can take those Lords of Extinction that a competitive grinder wants to dump and trade them off to someone who loves the giant monster in their Commander decks. Alara is full of this kind of gold, both literally and figuratively. Happy trading, and until next time,
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Welcome back to the Revenue Review! This week I want to do something a little different. Weāre super deep in Dark Ascension spoilers, of course, and thereās a plethora of articles (some are even mine) about the new cards and what they mean.
Rather than tell you for the hundredth time what cards from the new set are good, I want to talk about what youāre actually going to do with them once you get your hands on them. Next week Iāll do my usual Prerelease Primer, where I note the cards to look for and what I think theyāre going to do financially, so this week I want to look at another aspect of the prerelease atmosphere ā how youāre going to use these cards.
Letās start with the most important thing.
Have Fun
Since the rest of the article is going to be about how to profit at your prelease, speaking from a pure EV perspective, I figure itās best to stress this point first. You are at the prerelease, first and foremost, to have fun with friends playing a game we all love. There are few tournaments more exciting than a Prerelease, whether youāre with a few a buddies at your local shop or hundreds at a Regional Prerelease (Oh, waitā¦).
The point is, donāt take either the tournament itself or the trading aspect too seriously. Letās be honest. With the type of player who comes out to a prerelease, youāre not going to have any trouble making money at the trade tables, so remember all along the real reason why youāre there, and have some fun.
Get In, Get Out
Play in as many prerelease events as you can, for the reasons mentioned above. Open the shiny new Dark Ascension cards. Use them. Stare at them in awe. Play them. Win more of them.
And then get rid of them as quickly as possible.
As we all know, new cards only hold inflated pricetags for two weeks to a month before they begin to drop off rapidly.
While Iām telling you to get rid of the cards quickly, that doesnāt mean Iām telling you to accept the first offer that comes along. These cards have inflated pricetags for a reason ā they are a hot commodity. Use that to your advantage, and hold out for the best deal you can get. There will definitely be people who will tell you that your Sorin isnāt worth $60. The thing is, theyāre probably right (more on that next week), but that doesnāt mean you should move it cheaply. Someone, somewhere at that event will give you a premium trade price on it, and you should hold out for that.
And just because a potential trade has you ahead āon paper,ā it doesnāt mean itās a good deal for you. Sure, getting a ton of small-ticket items may technically put you ahead on a deal, but if your goal is to trade into Legacy staples, that pile of Standard lands might not be such a good trade, even if youāre coming out ahead on strict prices. In short, when you have the new cards, you have the power. Use it wisely.
On that note, if youāre trading from cards from the new set, either because you need them or you think something is undervalued, do everything you can to only trade other cards from Dark Ascension for them.
Just as youāll profit from trading from new cards into old cards, you obviously donāt want to pull the trigger the opposite way unless you have a good reason for doing so. Maybe you really need a particular card for your deck, and donāt mind losing some value to do so. Go for it! The most important thing about trading is that itās not about making money ā itās about making both parties happy. Sometimes that involves money, and sometimes it doesnāt. Donāt be afraid to lose value if it gets you what you want.
This isnāt your world
Chances are, if youāre reading this article right now, you arenāt the typical prerelease attendee. Most of the people who walk through the door for a prerelease are not tournament grinders who are up-to-date on the latest Modern tech.
Instead, they are a group of friends who play at home or maybe play EDH. Theyāve seen some of the new cards and have come for the experience. Sometimes they even just take the packs and go home without playing a match or drop after one round to go do something else.
Sounds crazy, right? Well, thatās the point. You just arenāt on the same wavelength of many of the typical attendees or a prerelease. And thatās okay. You can and should welcome these people into the shop and make them feel comfortable. Not only does this go along with Point #1, it also fosters a better community that, in turn, will increase your profits at the trade tables.
Now letās talk about trading with these guys. Itās a gold mine, and we all know it. In my experience this is the group of people who are most likely to make trades without checking or even caring about the value of cards (if they even brought trades). Itās not even a matter of ignorance, itās often one of apathy. Card values just arenāt as important as filling out their EDH or kitchen-table deck.
Of course theyāre going to care if all of a sudden youāre trying to trade Dark Ascension cards for duals, but for the most part you can make very profitable trades with these casual players that will make both parties happy. As I said above, you will very quickly lose this pipeline if you set out to rip off every player in the room, so donāt be a slimeball.
Standard Sucks
This is mostly my personal preference, but when trading, especially at an event where the coming metagame is completely unknown, do your best to avoid trading into other Standard cards. Not only can the metagame change suddenly, making something like Runechanters Pike bulk again, but Standard cards have a relatively short window to move.
At your prerelease, I suggest moving into Modern and casual cards moreso than Standard. Weāll be right in the midst of the Modern PTQ season, so demand will be strong for the format, and the future growth of Legacy is uncertain due to Modern. While dual lands are never going to be a bad investment, I think the growth on Legacy cards will be more muted over the next year than it has been for the last 12 months.
As for casual and EDH cards, you should be able to both pick them up from the typical Prerelease attendee and move them to these same people. While trading at an event like this, I usually look for the most stable cards I can get. For instance, Iāll be looking heavily for Zendikar fetchlands (gotta catch them all), in addition to other Modern cards. Iāll also look for the usual casual fare, such as the Liege cycle and other goodies like Divinity of Pride.
Speaking of Divinity, thereās one last point I want to touch on. In case you werenāt aware (and many people arenāt), Black/White is one of the most popular color combinations among casual players. Look at things like Fetid Heath and the Divinity to see for yourself. With Sorin coming out I wouldnāt be surprised to see some of the cooler B/W cards from Eventide (another small set) in the vein of Deathbringer Liege see a small price bump. While Sorinās playability in Constructed wonāt likely affect these as much, it could easily inspire more people to put together a deck in those colors, meaning that these cards will likely trade better than usual if nothing else.
Thatās all the space I have for this week. Next week Iāll be back with my usual prerelease primer and make some predictions about the financial future of many of the super-hyped cards (and maybe some sleepers) from Dark Ascension.
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Maybe the title should have been, are you Haunting to bring out the flavor of the block, but the reference to all of the available blue white strategies is the important part. Clearly, a lot of writers have been talking about Moorland Haunt and the development of these tempo decks. The format is still relatively diverse, but there are starting to be less and less strategies that are winning. I still love this Standard format, but the dominant decks are certainly beginning to show themselves. In my mind the metagame is so defined now. Here's how I see it.
1. Play Moorland Haunt - This can be any version of Illusions, Delver Aggro, or UW Humans. The important part is that you are aggressive, have some powerful creatures and can finish the game with Moorland Haunt.
2. Wolf Run (Insert a color here) - At this point, I'm sure you have seen Conley's black addition and hopefully the blue addition from SCG LA. We have seen the white version and almost mono green versions lose favor, but the typical green red version is still good. Basically, the combo of Primeval Titan searching for Inkmoth Nexus and Kessig Wolf Run, is better, more resilient, and more influential than Chapin ever thought it would be when he first mentioned it. The ramp elements in Standard are really good right now and hitting any of the best six mana creatures to ever be printed is something worth ramping for. If you figure out a new addition, no matter the color, you can innovate this deck and probably find some success. I will admit, even though Iād been thinking about black mana in Wolf Run for some time now, I could never come to a productive decklist so this idea is harder than it sounds.
3. Draw-Go Control ā Mana Leak plus removal spells and some huge fatty has been a deck archetype forever. These decks can come in two, three, four, or even five colors and can be tailored to your specific metagame. I would much rather be on the aggressive side in this metagame, but this is still a viable strategy. We all know Chapin can play a control deck like none other, but it can be a lot harder when you are trying to do it so tread lightly.
4. Misc Aggro ā When the metagame grows lax, you can expect some of the more hated out aggro decks to creep back in and find success. Both Red Deck Wins and Tempered Steel are both solid decks that can be quite fast. The only problem with either of them is facing all the hate cards that opponents can easily fit into their sideboards. I would include any Puresteel Paladin deck in this category as well. Both Puresteel and Tempered Steel falter in the face of Ancient Grudge and we all know about the plethora of anti red cards in Standard.
It seems like what deck you should be playing necessarily fits into one of these categories. Players are still trying to play other decks like Birthing Pod, Heartless Summoning, or in my case, Black Red Vampires, but none of these decks have found success for a reason. There is one version of Blue White Moorland Haunt, that has not gotten much notice, and that is Sam Black's list from GP Orlando. Basically what Sam did was to combine Blue White Humans and Delver aggro into one coherent, streamlined deck. If you have not seen it take a look below, but make sure you check out the deck tech HERE as well.
Sam Black
12th place GP Orlando
Delver Humans
Untitled Deck
creatures
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Doomed Traveler
2 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Snapcaster Mage
spells
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Mana Leak
4 Midnight Haunting
2 Mortarpod
4 Ponder
3 Vapor Snag
21 other spells
lands
4 Glacial Fortress
5 Island
3 Moorland Haunt
5 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
sideboard
1 Celestial Purge
2 Divine Offering
2 Gut Shot
2 Negate
1 Phantasmal Image
2 Ratchet Bomb
1 Revoke Existence
1 Runechanters Pike
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Vapor Snag
I have been playing this deck all week and let me tell you, it is capable of some pretty brutal draws. The Midnight Hauntings have been amazing. Being able to leave up counter mana and still cast your threat if you don't need to counter their play is quite good. I remember I was doing this at the beginning of the season and playing this deck made me remember just how good it was.
Getting flooded is a real issue with this deck. Meaning, if you get flooded you are probably going to lose. Granted this does not happen too often, but it does come up every handful of games. This had me wondering if Merfolk Looter might not be good in this version either main deck or side board. Most of the time, you want to be playing cheap guys and protecting them though but it was a thought I had in testing. Mortarpod is only as good as the number of other Delver of Secrets you play against. I expect to side board at least one out against almost every other deck. That led me to think Runechanters Pike might be good as maybe a one of main deck and still keep the other one in the side board. Overall, I love the list but I might make some small adjustments. Hopefully this will help me find success in Ohio this weekend.
SPOILER ALERT!!!
There have been two main cards that I have been thinking about endlessly this past week, though most likely not the ones you are thinking. The first card is the first one on the spoiler and goes right along with me getting on board with Delver Humans. The card?
Back in the day, I loved playing Raise the Alarm. My friends and I used to play it in White Weenie with Glorious Anthem, in random token decks, and even in control decks by putting it on an Isochron Scepter. The card was fun and quite good. Gather the Townsfolk is like a shout out from my past and I love it. In addition to reminiscing about old times, I think the synergy between it and Champion of the Parish is amazing. Building my own Wild Nacatl is something I try to do frequently in Standard and it usually turns out well. Players have been trying to accomplish this goal all season but sadly the human creature type was left off Hero of Bladehold and Elspeth Tirel. Probably a good thing that it was, but it would have been awesome. Champion of the Parish into Gather the Townsfolk is going to be a popular line of play in the new Standard environment I think.
It seems like Wizards is trying to push players back to Black White Tokens also with the printing of cards like Lingering Souls and Vault of the Archangel. I am excited to see all of the new archetypes Dark Ascension creates. Will vampires be a playable deck? Zombies?
There is one tribe that I know I am excited to play once Dark Ascension is legal. Think you guessed it? I would not have guessed that every waking moment would be spent focusing on one card on the spoiler, but it is just so good!
Where to begin. There is so much I love about this card. I have been singing this cards praise on twitter and to all my friends because I believe it will be a huge player in the new metagame. To me the card is so obviously broken. The last time I felt this strongly about a card was Vengevine, and before that it was Stoneforge Mystic. I don't think this card is on the power level of those two in terms of playablity in other formats, but pretty close to their level in Standard. That right there should get your attention.
Let me tell you how I see this card.
Huntmaster of the Fells is like...
...combining Kitchen Finks and Murderous Redcap together.
...creating your own baby Grave Titan.
...the epitome of built in card advantage.
...a reusable Flametongue Kavu.
...Trample? Trample!!! LOL the flip side even gets trample!
...getting free 2/2's because your opponent is playing Snapcaster Mage.
Are you starting to see why I like this card so much? Sure, Mana Leak is something to think about but resolving this creature is going to be game over for some decks. Not only do I think Moonmist is playable now, I think with Huntmaster, it makes it even better. I am looking forward to playing with this card more than any card in recent memory. The elegance in the design of this card is just mind blowing. I do not preorder cards often, but I certainly ordered four of this card. Fifteen dollars is cheap for how much I expect him to cost a month after the set is released. With Huntmaster seeing print, werewolves could realistically be a tier one deck. I have been working on the deck but I am not sure the exact route I want to take with it. Is it a straight aggro deck with tons of creatures and a good curve? Is it an aggro control deck with more burn and removal spells? Heck, does it splash another color like blue or black for different kinds of removal? These questions, I don't have answers for yet. What I do know, is that the card is quite good. Are you excited for Dark Ascension? I sure am.
Twitter is not something I mention often, but I am fairly active on it. Running my own singles business gives me an opportunity to talk to players about decks and see cards that are trending. I am very active in the financial magic community, so I tend to post relevant information about the finance side as well. If this sounds interesting to you, plus some sweet Standard tips from time to time, go ahead and follow me.
: )
That's all for this week folks. Spoiler season is like Christmas Morning every day for Magic players, so enjoy it.
Until Next Time,
Get ready to Unleash that Dark Ascension Force on Standard!
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Artifacts are a kind of card that I frequently try to avoid when I'm building Commander decks. The reason for this is two-fold. First, because artifacts are colorless, if you get too comfortable with them, you'll find the same artifacts taking up twenty slots in each of your decks. Even if all of the artifacts are powerful and worth including, what's the point in having different decks at that point? The second reason is because artifact mana is, in my opinion, one of the aspects of the format that needs to be brought under control. There's so much fast mana that you'll frequently see mono-Blue decks ramping faster than the Green decks. Sure, they're ramp might be more vulnerable, but the explosiveness more than makes up for it.
Speaking of Blue, blue is probably the color most closely associated with artifacts, because of Commanders like Arcum Dagsson and Memnarch. Along with artifacts, Blue is something I try to avoid in as many of my decks as possible, mostly because of the negative connotation the color has attached to it. What's the first thing that you think when you sit down across from a mono-Blue Commander? Generally, I start thinking about playing around Counterspells and Control Magics, and trying to narrow the range of game-ending combos they could be running so that I can hold answers to those combos as necessary. More and more frequently though, the response I see is that people would rather not play than play a game with a mono-Blue deck. Why would that be? Doesn't blue do all kinds of sweet things? Countering spells, stealing creatures, drawing cards, comboing off, extra turns - there's so many things you can do that are powerful and fun!
Honestly, I think the biggest problem for Blue in this format is that some of these powerful, unique, and swingy effects are so much fun to play with. That means that a lot of people want to play with them, and are completely willing to splash blue in their deck just to add countermagic or Time Warps. The problem is that almost every blue deck, that I've seen at least, is a either a combo deck or a "counterspell, theft, and extra turns" theme deck. The overlap here is that neither of these kinds of decks really lets other players, you know, play the game, either by ending the game quickly or by preventing other players from doing anything relevant. That's not to say that these effects don't have a place in the format, because they certainly do have roles to play, just that they're anti-social in nature.
So with all of the crazy blue generals who use artifacts to bring the game to a screeching halt who do you choose to head an angry army of automatons? I'm going with Sakashima the Impostor for a few reasons. Firstly because I need to learn to spell his/her/its name. But more importantly, she's able to copy your enablers like Grand Architect early, and then bounce herself to copy your threats to apply more pressure later on. And if that's not good enough, she can even copy utility guys like Treasure Mage or Mulldrifter to make sure that you have enough gas to make it through the mid- and late-game. With that kind of flexibility, what can go wrong?
Send in the Clones
This really is the crux of the deck, which is part of the reason I want to overemphasize the number of clones to start with, especially cheap ones. Because a number of the clones are so cheap, they let you play some sort of artifact enabler on turns two through four, and then clone it to start casting fatties. One notable exception here is Shapesharer. Now, he's usually a card that I'm all over, but in this case the activation cost kills his utility. When you want to use your clones primarily to produce mana and copy "enters the battlefield" abilities, having a mana intensive activated ability which doesn't copy EtB effects is pretty abysmal.
Sakashima the Impostor (Commander)
Phyrexian Metamorph
Copy Artifact
Cackling Counterpart
Clone
Cryptoplasm
Phantasmal Image
Renegade Doppelganger
Vesuvan Doppelganger
Vesuvan Shapeshifter
Rite of Replication
Sculpting Steel
Most important here are the cards which can change what they're cloning. The most obvious of these is your Commander, Sakashima, who can bounce herself to rebuy EtB effects or change what she's copying. However, even the traditionally bad, aggressive clones like Renegade Doppelganger and Cryptoplasm are sweet here, since they give you a ton of potential for explosive draws, even if you give up some late-game utility.
Contrary to the cheap, aggressive clones, Rite of Replication and Cackling Counterpart are sweet because they let you be aggressive early while also being really sweet late-game when you need to go over the top of Titans and whatnot. The sheer flexibility of all of these cards as the game progresses is really where a lot of the power of the deck comes from; you have a number of reasonably costed cards whose effect scales with what phase of the game you're currently in. However, the thing that really defines the effectiveness of these cards is what you're planning on cloning!
Stuff to Copy
As I mentioned before, the kinds of cards we're planning on copying break themselves pretty conveniently down into three categories: Enablers, Beaters, and Utility Guys. The enablers are primarily accelerants, but also just cards that play well with an artifact-themed deck, especially in multiples. Similarly, the Beaters are the giant artifact guys that you want to ramp into, and are again cards that tend to improve in multiples. Lastly, you've got utility guys. They're generally not your first choice to copy, but they do give you extra value, and help make sure you don't run out of gas as the game progresses. While they're certainly not as flashy as most of your other options, they get the job done!
Enablers
Etherium Sculptor
Grand Architect
Master Transmuter
Vedalken Engineer
Silver Myr
Palladium Myr
Thrummingbird
Plague Myr
So, some of these guys are really exciting, like Grand Architect, Etherium Sculptor and Vedalken Engineer. Those are the sort of cards that the deck is really built around, and are some of your most powerful enablers. There's also some less exciting accelerants like the mana myr, which aren't awesome, but you've got to have a reasonable density of comparable effects in order to do the same kind of thing with any sort of consistency in a 99-card singleton format.
Thrummingbird may seem a little out of place, but there are actually some really sweet interactions with it hidden in the deck. You can proliferate onto things like Everflowing Chalice and Coalition Relic, Tezzeret the Seeker, or just poison people to death with Plague Myr plus Thrummingbird. It's a cute card, and is very likely too cute, but it's still the kind of card that's really fun to try.
Beaters
Master of Etherium
Sharding Sphinx
Steel Overseer
Steel Hellkite
Arcbound Crusher
Lodestone Golem
Etched Champion
Wurmcoil Engine
Precursor Golem
Myr Battlesphere
Thopter Assembly
Arcbound Overseer
Arcbound Ravager
Pentavus
Djinn of Wishes
The crux of the deck, and the part that's the most fun! What kind of gigantic fatties can you cast, and how quickly can you ramp into them? Sure, some of them are pretty underwhelming on their own, like Master of Etherium and Steel Overseer, but that's what all the token generators are for, right? The worst card here is probably Etched Champion, since he's only ever going to be a 2/2, regardless of metalcraft. That said, I think that if you can copy him a few times or find some of your artifact anthems, he gets pretty scary pretty fast.
On the other side, the most underrated card here is probably going to be Arcbound Crusher. That guy is actually just one of the best cards in the deck. Especially because of all of the other fatties that come with tokens in tow, this guy gets gigantic very quickly, and if you can clone him, you just get so far ahead on board.
Djinn of Wishes was actually the last card I added to the deck, and that was mostly because I wanted an excuse to keep Thrummingbird in. That said, I don't think it's a bad inclusion. Being able to clone for more free spells is obviously insane, as is proliferating Wish Counters. There are some games that this guy will just run away with, and the random nature of his ability is a ton of fun to play with! Who says you can't wish for more wishes?
Utility Guys
Faerie Mechanist
Treasure Mage
Solemn Simulacrum
Mulldrifter
Duplicant
Kuldotha Forgemaster
Scarecrone
Karn, Silver Golem
Vedalken Archmage
While these guys aren't nearly as exciting as your enablers or beaters, they smooth out your draws, and let you do some cool things you wouldn't get to otherwise. Besides, the obvious removal and tutors or card selection, Karn lets you copy non-creature artifacts with your Clones, which can be pretty sweet sometimes. Beyond that, Scarecrone gives you some resiliency to board sweepers, even if the deck doesn't really run any Scarecrows. Besides that, there's really not much to say about these guys; they're good, solid, generically poweful effects.
More Cards, More Bombs!
One thing that aggressive decks traditionally have trouble with is card advantage. Because you're investing your cards into killing someone from the beginning of the game, it's likely that you'll just run out of things to do by the mid-game. This deck tries to avoid that trap in two ways. Firstly, we're blue, so the deck gets to run blue card-drawing spells, particularly ones that will net you multiple cards with minimal investment. Secondly, you get to run "bad" cards that require you to invest time and mana, but generate extra creatures and cards to help you grind out the control decks. The more time and mana you get to invest, the more cards you get out of them, and the further ahead you get!
Drawing Cards
Rhystic Study
Mystic Remora
Thirst for Knowledge
Thoughtcast
Tezzeret the Seeker
Transmute Artifact
Preordain
Jace Beleren
Rhystic Study and Mystic Remora are the best cards for this deck here. Netting cards without having to invest very much is a powerful effect, especially since you want to be tapping out on your own turn as much as possible. Generally, I don't like these cards since it's often pretty easy to play around taxing effects, but when you're backing them up with threats and forcing people to play into your Rhystic Study to play answers, the card becomes much, much better.
Transmute Artifact is a card I really would love to see reprinted so more people could play with it, since it's really about as close to a "fair" Tinker as we're ever going to see. That said, you can do a ton of interesting things with it, like transmuting away a Wurmcoil Engine or a clone into yet another giant threat. The card does some very cool things without being overpowered.
Back to the Grind
Mirrorworks
Myr Turbine
Myr Matrix
Strata Scythe
These cards are just insane. Mirrorworks especially lets you do absolutely stupid things with double Myr Turbine or Sharding Sphinx. Few cards get out of hand as quickly as mirrorworks, and I think it's a card that really should see a lot more play than it does.
Myr Matrix and Myr Turbine are similar to Mirrorworks in that they slowly generate an advantage for you. Myr aren't really much, but it's difficult to get rid of the Matrix. Unfortunately, there aren't a ton of Myr who are worth tutoring up with Myr Turbine. Fortunately, Myr Battlesphere is one of them; it's gigantic, and even changes combat math quite a bit in conjunction with cards like Arcbound Crusher or Master of Etherium.
In the late game, Strata Scythe turns every card in your deck into a legitimate threat, and will let you get in with Sakashima for 21 Commander damage pretty easily. It's certainly not as impressive as the Sword of Feast and Famines of the format, but I think it's a better role-player here, since the Sword is only going to encourage you to overextend, and Scythe turns any random guy into a much larger threat later in the game, which is where this deck will struggle most.
The Mana Base
The mana for this deck is really pretty easy. You want some kind of artifact acceleration, you want a lot of 2-mana lands to accelerate you out of the gates, and you want a few utility artifact lands to help you grind out the last couple of points of damage in the late-game. Let's start with the acceleration package:
Mana Rocks
Mind Stone
Dreamstone Hedron
Sol Ring
Gauntlet of Power
Caged Sun
Everflowing Chalice
Coalition Relic
There's not a ton to say about the artifact ramp suite. Mind Stone and Dreamstone Hedron are my go-to ramp spells, because you can cash them in for cards once you have enough lands and don't need the excess mana anymore. Gauntlet of Power and Caged Sun not only let you go over the top and just out-mana people, but are also a Glorious Anthem for any [card Sharding Sphinx]Thopter Tokens[/card] you might generate!
Last are Everflowing Chalice and Coalition Relic, two cards that made the cut mostly because of [card]Thrummingbird. They're both solid on their own, but if you get a couple of hits in with a Thrummingbird proliferating Everflowing Chalice, you're going to get real big real fast!
Lands!
Inkmoth Nexus
Blinkmoth Nexus
Mishra's Factory
Saprazzan Skerry
Ancient Tomb
Temple of the False God
31 Island
Now, there are a couple of cool things I chose not to do with the mana base here. You could run Snow-Covered Islands, Mouth of Ronom, and Scrying Sheets. You could run Wasteland, Tectonic Edge and the like. You could even run Sand Silos and Saprazzan Cove to interact with Thrummingbird. The problem you may run into is that those lands are all colorless, and this deck wants to be sure to have double blue early on so that Sakashima can copy an enabler. If you stumble in the early game because you're missing your second blue mana, lots of the midrangey control decks can just take over the game before you get out of the gates.
Since I'm now well over word count, let's take a look at the final list and wrap this up!
[deckbox did="a143" size="small" width="560"]
I'm pretty happy with this list, since it's doing something powerful and proactive without turning into an overbearing prison or combo deck, and without running countermagic. I'm sure that the list is far from perfect, and the Thrummingbird package especially is probably just not good enough, but it is a ton of fun to play with, and can lead to some incredibly tense, high-energy games. Next week we'll edge a little more towards the combo end of the artifact spectrum with Slobad, Goblin Tinkerer. Be sure to check it out to find out what my favorite mono-Red combo is!
Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com
@cag5383 on Twitter
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The opportunity to pre-order spoiled Magic cards has drastically impacted the financial aspects of a new set. It would be a fruitless task to argue otherwise.
I would maintain that, despite this impact on the immediate perceived values of new cards, the ultimate price once a set is released is relatively unaffected. Even though sites like Star City Games have significant influence in the singles market, they still cannot grab hold of the economic āinvisible handā and set prices where they see fit. Ultimately, supply and demand will dictate card values.
To Pre-Order or not to Pre-Order
Actually, this question should virtually never pop into your mind. On average, there have been about 1-2 cards per set that sold for significantly more than pre-order prices after becoming available for sufficient time.
The most notorious example is everyoneās favorite Planeswalker, Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Many skeptics, including myself, felt that a 4-mana Planeswalker that dies to Lightning Bolt couldnāt survive in Standard. In Legacy, I was convinced the overpowered Planeswalker would be way too slow to deal with the likes of Tarmogoyf and Ad Nauseam.
We skeptics could not have been more wrong.
The above chart (courtesy of blacklotusproject.com) clearly highlights the opportunity speculators had to make bank on this card during pre-order season. Starting at just $40, the card more than doubled within a year of its release date.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor has been severely punished for his power level, having faced bannings in both Standard and Modern. Despite doubling and halving again in just two short years, I would argue his most impressive feat is his influence on un-released card prices. Because everyone wants to double their money on the next Jace, he has caused many spoiled mythic rares to pre-sell at astronomical [read: laughable] prices.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
The most recent evidence of Jaceās influence is the price of the latest Planeswalker spoiled for Dark Ascension: Sorin, Lord of Innistrad:
I wonāt even try to argue Sorinās playability ā that much is quickly evident. He is acceptably costed at four mana and even has three loyalty to start, like Jace. But he is no Jace, people! He requires TWO colors of mana to play!
Despite this obvious limitation, people are still insistent on pre-ordering this card at the now-inflated price of $60.
Somehow, logic once again has been tossed out the window by many as they drool over a new Planeswalker. In fact, looking at pure statistics is enough evidence to suggest paying anything more than $35 for a Planeswalker is plain insanity. Other than Jace, there has never been a Planeswalker that exceeded this cost on eBay, although [card Elspeth, Knight Errant]some[/card] [card Gideon Jura] have [/card] [card Liliana of the Veil]come close [/card].
You Already Knew That
Chances are, if you are an active reader on this website, you already knew that preordering Planeswalkers is not the most fiscally sound idea. You also already know that preordering almost any spoiled cards will likely not net you profit.
As I mentioned before, the exceptions are rare and difficult to identify. If they were obvious, the card would not have pre-sold at the lower price. Recent examples include Birthing Pod from New Phyrexia, Stoneforge Mystic from Worldwake, and Seachrome Coast from Scars of Mirrodin.
Looking at the spoiled cards thus far and their pre-sale prices on Star City Games, I can attempt to identify which card from this set will be worth purchasing now. This is a very challenging task ā Star City Games has their best financial minds assessing spoiled card values and identifying appropriate pricing. Who am I to claim they have made a mistake on a particular card price?
The best I can offer is a comparison of the newly spoiled cards against historical cards. By drawing these parallels, I can try and predict how the Rares and Mythic Rares will behave once released. This is a task I attempted when Snapcaster Mage was spoiled, and I felt my assessment was reasonable. In rapid fashion, letās see what we can deduce about the most costly Dark Ascension spoilers so far.
Rapid Fire Comparisons
This transforming Werewolf inspires me to try an aggressive RG build in Standard. He provides four power of attacking for four mana and a source of card advantage when flipping. He currently preorders on Star City Games for $15 (recently reduced from $17.49). Is the old Huntmaster worth it?
Well, Bloodline Keeper can provide a more consistent source of creature advantage each turn, despite needing to tap. He is only a Rare so the comparison isnāt direct, but his $4 price tag suggests to me that the Huntmaster may not linger at this high of a price point for long.
The upper bound on Huntmaster is certainly Geist of Saint Traft, which provides six power of attacking and Hexproof for just three mana. Currently retailing at $20, this creature can be found for under $15 on sites like eBay. In summary, Huntmaster would need to see more play than Geist in order to justify its current pre-order price tag ā this just doesnāt seem likely.
Havengul Lich provides some powerful recurrence power. He may be able to find a home in some UB control decks running cards like Snapcaster Mage. Is his $15 presale price tag justifiable? Possibly, but he would again need to see as much play as Geist of Saint Traft. Lacking Evasion or Hexproof is a large downside, though remaining outside of Incinerate range is a plus.
I am on the fence with this card. I could be convinced that Havengul Lich will make a splash, earning a $20 price tag in the long term. With all the recent synergistic cards that interact with creatures in the graveyard, he even has potential to shift the metagame and see $30. History does not indicate this likely, however. Itās much more possible that this card sells for under $15 on eBay within a short month or two after Dark Ascensionās release.
A 7-mana 3/5 creature needs to have incredible abilities in order to be playable. His life-gaining power and built-in card advantage are certainly points in Drogoskulās favor. But is he truly worth preordering at $10?
He would need to trump other finishers in control decks, such as Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite and Consecrated Sphinx. Both of these cards sell on eBay for around $12. Therefore, should Drogoskul find his way into Esper control or U/W control builds, he may in fact be worth purchasing now. Though, when you factor in shipping and a potential upside reward of $2, it hardly seems worthwhile.
The last financially noteworthy (>$5) card spoiled from Dark Ascension as of January 14th is Falkenrath Aristocrat. With this Vampire, we can try to predict her future value by comparing her to her long-lost cousin Olivia Voldaren. The abnormally-legged Vampire peaked at $9 and now sells on eBay for close to $8.
Falkenrath Aristocrat is currently priced at $9 on Star City Games. When comparing this price tag to that of Olivia, it seems this Vampire is priced reasonably. If she sees more play than Olivia, she may even break into double digits. Her indestructible tendencies are a significant help, but she would have to find a RB deck to fit into. While one doesnāt exist quite yet, the possibility is nonzero.
In Summary
Among the cards from Dark Ascension selling on Star City Games for over $5, it doesnāt seem like there are any huge profiting opportunities. A card like Drogoskul Reaver or Falkenrath Aristocrat may see an increase of a few dollars, but this is far from guaranteed.
There may be some cheaper rare that is pre-selling for $2 with significant potential. None leap out at me at the moment, but there is probably one or two. Either way, this is not a risk I am comfortable taking. Even if one of these rare cards does break out, there will likely be a small window of time where I can purchase a playset at a reasonable price anyway.
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When Sorin, Lord of Innistrad was spoiled last Wednesday, a thought occurred to me.
First of all, I the card was really well designed and I need one for my Ghave EDH deck and for my Vish Kal EDH deck. After that thought churned through my brain, I started thinking about if the baddest Vampire Planeswalker on the block had any Standard and other applications.
I began scouring Twitter and Forums to see other people's opinions. The general consensus was that a BW token deck could potentially spawn from Sorin's power level alone, and yesterday's Vault of the Archangel seems to fully support that.
So everyone was off to the races on speculation. Where was Sorin going to end up in terms of presale price? What other cards would this affect? Was this deck legit or overhyped? The price of Isolated Chapel tripled on MTGO overnight as everyone tried to jump in on the hype bandwagon, hoping to flip a few cards once they had risen in price.
This is what the title of the article, Collateral Damage, is referring to. Ā Sorin was spoiled, and as an effect of his impact, collateral on other cards began to shift. People love to play with strong cards and people are going to make him work if at all possible. Being able to predict what cards will be affected by collateral damage can result in quick profits if you can accurately identify these gainers.
More than just new set releases can cause collateral damage, though these are typically the easiest to predict. Card bannings and unbannings, the creation of new formats, the rotation of Standard cards and what decks the top pros are playing can all affect prices of cardboard besides the specific cards being removed or added to formats. We can look at historical examples to try to get an idea of what to look for in the future and apply this knowledge to the remaining spoiler season.
The Release of New Cards
There wasĀ a time when you only had to worry about new cards coming out four times a year. Things are a bit more complicated now.
Not only do we have the four sets a year set up, but now Wizards has started releasing new cards in casual sets such as Commander and Planechase. If we are hoping to make our money in the MTGO market, things can get even more complicated. With the occasional Masters Edition and the release of older sets, there can be a significant number of cards being released that can shake up prices.
Sometimes the gainers are easy to spot and can turn a profit immediately, such as what happened with Isolated Chapel and Sorin. Other times it takes someone breaking a card open for the Magic community at large to catch on and for cards to change in price.
When Sword of Feast and Famine was released, there was debate of just how good the card was. Stoneforge Mystic sat quietly in the corner, waiting for its time to shine, sitting at a very low price tag. The mystic had seen a bit of play the previous Standard season in Boss Naya decks, but once she could start picking up serious equipment, her price exploded. We all realize now that Stoneforge Mystic is a broken piece of cardboard that can wreck formats, but it took the printing of the right equipment to make her price really hit the big leagues, topping out at around $30 prior to her banning and reprinting.
New cards can affect collateral damage in negative ways too. Before Mental Misstep was released, Aether Vial was a safe investment that floated around $20.
Afterwards?
Vial decks became nearly unplayable as Blade decks took over and Aether Vial's price plummeted. SCG currently has the card listed $11.99 despite there being a new format for the card to be played in. Again, this was an obvious example with big name cards.
What about something a bit more subtle?
Go for the Throat was a stellar removal spell that showed up in a large number of staple decks but has all but disappeared now, its price taking a dive as well. The release of Dismember invalidated it as a strong removal spell, giving people an excuse to move out of Black for their removal since it could be had in any color.
Where does this tell us to look at when we're watching new cards get spoiled? We want to be looking at cards that have been underutilized, cards that needed a bit more push to hit it big. Stoneforge Mystic needed a strong piece of equipment. Knight of the Reliquary broke out once we had fetchlands. Sorin could make strong token producers like Elspeth Tirel show up in the limelight once more.
The card I'm banking on currently is Mayor of Avabruck.
With a second lord effect in "Everwolf" (cards only spoiled in German at moment) and an incredible beater in Huntmaster of the Fells, Werwolves could be poised to be a Tier 2 strategy and Mayor is the strongest card in Innistrad for this deck.
If the wolves do even remotely well at a tournament, look for him to jump. The prevalence of Gut Shot is the thing holding him back the most, but anyone who has resolved a turn 2 Mayor unanswered before he flips knows just how strong this guy can be.
The Banhammer
Bannings take place four times a year and only then, short of some HUGE oversight.
These are the nights to stay up late, find the vendor who isn't shutting his site down, and pray he doesn't try and stiff you the next day. We've all seen the run up on cards that were unbanned in situations like Time Spiral's, but any deck that is helped or hindered by the ban can affect card prices all around it.
Let's look at Time Spiral again as it has one of the most high profile price shifts in recent memory. I'm not talking about the card, though jumping from around $5 to about $30 in one night is impressive.
I'm talking about Candelabra of Tawnos.Ā Using Black Lotus Project, we can monitor the cards ridiculous ascent. While it was a pricey card to begin with, being an old powerful card on the reserved list, the card could be had for around $30-40 dollars until Time Spiral was unbanned. The card then rose steadily as rumors of a High Tide deck surfaced until it was around $70 dollars in early March.
Then the deck actually showed up at an SCG Open and posted fantastic results and it took off, doubling in price to around $150 in three days, continuing up to $200+ over the next few weeks.
A card going on the ban list can affect other cards prices as well. When Wizards finally pulled the trigger on banning Jace and Mystic in Standard, everyone tried to jump back on the Valakut bandwagon.
It was believed the deck would return to its dominant run in Standard without the two best cards in Caw-Blade keeping the deck down. It turned out that the cards Caw-blade used to beat Valakut weren't what was banned, but it was Primeval Titan, which had tapered off quite a bit since Caw had begun to rise, which saw a sudden leap in price after the announcement.Ā The card's price would come back down to earth as people realized Valakut wasn't back and once it was eventually reprinted, but public opinion and the run up on the card granted a window where one could make a large sum of money.
Things to learn here are that if you pay attention to a format, you can potentially predict what to get into or out of.
If a format is being choked to death by a particular strategy, you can identify what may be removed from that strategy and what decks that frees up. Picking up on P-Titan granted a window that allowed an immediate gain to be made. While less easy to predict, unbannings can have the same affect.
The best plan is to camp out near the computer the night of the scheduled banning and unbannings and decide what is affected by the news. If you can predict it before, you can gain a significantly larger advantage. But as long as you are awake you stand to have a chance. Pay attention to people like Patrick Chapin and Aaron Forsythe in the weeks leading up to bannings, as Chapin tends to have a good grasp of what may or may not be banned and Aaron knows before hand and is very involved in the community.
Wrapping Things Up
This article is already hitting the 1500 word mark, so I'll bring it to a close for now. I tried to break things down as best I could and give some advice on what to look out for, but a lot of this has to be gut instinct or based on what the people in the know like Kelly Reid or Jonathon Medina have to say.
Medina is now out on his own and posting a large amount of financial advice on his Twitter, and here at QS you have the opportunity to get some of the thoughts from best people of expertise on this exact topic. Pay attention to what everyone's saying and make a decision.
The biggest thing I hear people say is "I should have invested in card X". In order to make money in this game you must buy or trade for things you see as having future value. Pay close attention to the rest of the spoilers this season and see if you can find a card you think has potential and pull the trigger. I may still talk about the influence of pros on cards prices and how the creation of new formats and rotation of old sets can also affect prices.
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
A Modern Top 8 with Coalition Relic: A Gifts Ungiven Tournament Report and Primer
I am always looking for the best deck in Modern, but I find myself uninterested in decks like Affinity and Splinter Twin. They just do one thing, and sometimes they do it terribly! The format is great, in no small part because I can reliably play Gifts Ungiven all the time. First off, let's start with a fundamental concept about the Modern format...
Games reliably go on for a long time after the fourth turn.
Let's continue with another one...
All the great card advantage spells are banned in Modern.
If we go from these two premises, we can draw the conclusion that Modern often involves grind-fests, topdecked bombs and unwinnable game states for decks that only focus on the early game. You can play the Affinity deck and hope to draw Cranial Plating to end things on turn 3, or you can go with a long-form deck that still gives you chances to win all along the way. Splinter Twin can do that; all you need is a Pestermite and the deck's eponymous enchantment and you'll win a game on the turn you were "supposed" to die. Birthing Pod combo decks can do it too, but in another way. Through cards like Kitchen Finks and Birthing Pod, one can get a lot of value from just one physical card. The virtual card advantage in Pod decks is incredible, even though they don't typically run anything that will draw an extra card.
I wanted to design a deck that was full of 2-for-1s. Jund can do this, but it loses steam because sometimes, the 2-for-1 isn't what you wanted. A Bloodbraid Elf into a Terminate with no other targets is a wasted opportunity. A Liliana of the Veil against an opponent with three creatures on the board will act like a glorified Fog. What I wanted was a deck with solid, reliable value cards. When I talk about "value," I'm discussing a pretty simple and abstract concept. If you look at Annihilate, you'll see a value card. It draws into another card, but at 3BB, it's not mana-efficient. Deathmark is another value card; if you kill a Knight of the Reliquary, you've spent one mana and one card to destroy a three mana card. So value can be card savings as well as mana savings. The reason that Counterspell is great and Distress is unplayable is that Counterspell will almost always gobble up some mana on the way; the opponent has to tap lands to attempt their spell. Dismiss simply takes a card without making an opponent waste on-board resources.
Cornerstone of the super-greedy.
Luckily, Modern has a lot of value cards, but you have to know where to look. These cards are strewn across all five colors, which can make normal deckbuilding a challenge. Fortunately, this format has the cure-all to weird mana costs: Coalition Relic. I knew that I wanted to play a deck with four Relics, because if I could land a Relic on the third turn, I would assuredly win the game. That Relic guarantees five or six mana on the next turn. That translates into paying retail for Shriekmaw or casting Gifts Ungiven for a fine-tuned pile of other value cards. Relic fixes mana in an incredible way; I ended up running 25 lands and only 2 basic lands and used Relic to play easily through Blood Moon all day long. The red enchantment is actually a non-factor when you have Relics.
Coalition Relic also encourages you to tap out on your own turn because you have to spend that mana in your mainphase. Against a deck full of counterspells, this can be risky, but we are in luck because counters in Modern are uniformly bad. They are situational or overcosted most of the time, and the counterspell decks will often die to aggressive decks in the first few rounds of an event anyway. So we have an artifact and a manabase that enable us to play the greediest spells known to Modern, a deck that routinely hits eight or nine mana, and we have access to a giant cardpool. The most logical conclusion is this:
Coalition Control, by Doug Linn
Untitled Deck
4 Coalition Relic
3 Mana Leak
2 Rise/Fall
2 Shriekmaw
2 Mulldrifter
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Gifts Ungiven
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Withered Wretch
1 Godo, Bandit Warlord
1 Batterskull
1 Life from the Loam
1 Doom Blade
1 Ravens Crime
1 Firespout
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Cruel Ultimatum
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Damnation
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Sunken Ruins
2 Blood Crypt
3 Reflecting Pool
2 Flooded Grove
2 Watery Grave
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Urzas Factory
1 Dragonskull Summit
1 Breeding Pool
1 City of Brass
1 Graven Cairns
1 Twilight Mire
1 Rakdos Carnarium
1 Forest
1 Swamp
[sideboard]
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Vensers Journal
1 Negate
1 Flashfreeze
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Firespout
1 Natures Claim
1 Creeping Corrosion
1 Seal of Primordium
1 Slay
1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Ancient Grudge
What a greedy deck! It takes a little time to explain and the best way to do that is to break it down.
These are your value cards; each one is an incredible amount of card advantage in this format. Few decks can come back from a Wurmcoil Engine. The Evoke creatures are fantastic in the early turns and really show off their power when you can cast them for their full price later in the game. Withered Wretch is a necessary element of maindeck graveyard hate. There are decks like Martyr and other Gifts decks with Worm Harvest that have superior lategames, but they are completely dead to a Withered Wretch taking out their graveyard. Godo is perhaps the greediest card in here. I'm unsure of whether he's better than more Wurmcoil Engines, but when he hits, he usually wins the game in the next turn. While Godo only untaps himself, he gives all of your creatures another attack phase. This is irrelevant, except for Batterskull and its Vigilance. Godo lets you clang in for fourteen damage and at least 8 life points on the turn after he comes out. If they kill your Godo, you still have a Batterskull. If they kill the Germ (or have big blockers), you put the Equipment on the Bandit and crank twice with a 7/7 lifelinker.
Snapcaster Mage is a clearly strong card. It's very good in this deck because you will nearly always have something great to flash back. I've seen a lot of Esper Teachings decks try the late control game with this card, but they rarely have anything better than a 1-for-1 to get with it. Do you want to pay 1UUBW to flash back Esper Charm? Is Snapcaster flashing a Rune Snag going to accomplish anything?
This seems like a lot of creature-kill, especially considering that we already have Shriekmaws onboard. The reason that Lightning Bolt is superior to something like Path to Exile is that it is never dead. It can be weak, but it never sits in your hand. The combination of Lightning Bolt and Snapcaster Mage makes for a surprisingly quick clock, too. I wish I had more Maelstrom Pulses; they are highly efficient, but I don't think that the deck can afford more dedicated creature-kill spells. You reach a limit where you'll have nine cards to sideboard out, but only seven to sideboard in. That's not a great place to be in.
It looks like I've done some weird splits to make Gifts Ungiven better, but that's not the case. I simply found that you sometimes just need a Firespout over a Damnation. You want Doom Blade over Smother or Go For The Throat because you must be able to kill artifact creatures like Frogmite. I previously had a lot more singleton kill spells, but if you're casting Gifts, you can get Firespout, Doom Blade, Damnation and Snapcaster Mage and answer just about any problematic creature. There's no need for more kill spells, as long as you can draw enough naturally that you are not reliant on Gifts to power you up.
3 Mana Leak
2 Rise/Fall
1 Life from the Loam
1 Ravens Crime
1 Cruel Ultimatum
3 Gifts Ungiven
This is the disruption and lategame package. Mana Leaks are unexciting, but they fulfill a solid role. They make a great threat with Snapcaster Mage and they pre-emptively handle a really busy card like Ranger of Eos, which would otherwise occupy many more resources to eliminate. Rise/Fall is incredible; people have forgotten about how good Hymn to Tourach is in a format without things like Brainstorm. It buys 2+ turns against most combination decks and breaks up things like Proclamation of Rebirth forecasting. Rise is also exceptional, as it makes all of your Evoke creatures pull double-duty. If you are making a Gifts pile, a Snapcaster Mage and a Rise/Fall mean that you'll eventually get any other two spells that you have Gifted for.
Life from the Loam and Raven's Crime are a necessary evil. They make a Gifts into an incredible engine. You simply get Life from the Loam, Raven's Crime, Rakdos Carnarium and another land, like Sunken Ruins. If the opponent gives you the Crime and Loam, you cast both and then start retracing. If they give you the two lands, you dredge Loam, retrace Crime twice, and then cast Loam to do it again! There's no escape! Putting someone into topdeck mode is a good place to be at. Sure, Storm Combo can still draw that Past Into Flames, but when you've put them on that singular out, you're in good shape and you can win at your leisure. If you're wondering about why you get the Carnarium, it's because the card allows you to play a land on the turn that you start Criming and still have a land to Retrace away.
I am not running Iona, Shield of Emeria and Unburial Rites. It can sometimes win the game against combo or Martyr, but it does very little if you are behind in the game. Iona is just about the worst card you could draw, and if you run Elesh Norn, you have to play yet another goofy, uncastable, off-color card to get things to work. I tested it extensively and I abandoned it. If I am going to draw the uncomfortable half of a two-card combo, I want it to be the Batterskull end of the Godo chain instead of a blank Angel.
I originally had two or three Cruel Ultimatums. I am still undecided on whether I want more than one. It's a gamewinner when you cast it, especially when you can turn it into the full 8-for-1. Having one means that you're a little more reliant on a Gifts to get it off and it tends to show up at less optimal times. Thanks to Relic, you can cast this beast of a spell on the fifth turn, and it is like a Raven's Crime engine that is compacted into one card.
Finally, let's talk about Gifts Ungiven. Most Modern decks with this card tend to misplay it. They'll run a bunch of bad corner-case cards and rely on Gifts to set up an Iona combo. I simply use Gifts to double the value of whatever I am doing at the moment. The Loam/Crime engine is my sole Gifts concession. You'll still win the games where you "merely" use Gifts to get Mulldrifter, Mana Leak, Snapcaster Mage and Wurmcoil Engine. Gifts piles are not hard, either, and if you want to play this deck, you should familiarize yourself with what you'll get with Gifts. If you need to kill an enchantment, you can get Rise, Snapcaster, Maelstrom Pulse and another potent card. If you want to kill a Planeswalker, you can get Lightning Bolt, Snapcaster Mage, Vendilion Clique and Maelstrom Pulse and you'll have a good shot at dealing with it. I think it's pretty shameful to watch someone spend over a minute on putting a Gifts pile together; they obviously didn't do the prep work before the tournament and they'll end up going to time. In the event I played with this deck, I got a Gifts resolved in about fifteen seconds with only five minutes left on the clock. You must be able to do that or you might as well just not play Gifts.
On a side note, if you don't want to play Gifts, I feel that Tidings is a serious option instead. What a great way to start your fourth turn!
A Few Words On The Manabase
This mana is everywhere. People seem to forget how good Reflecting Pool is. The filter lands enable you to cast everything you need, early in the game. You don't need many Ravnica shock-lands because you cannot afford the early damage. Unless you need to cast a Lightning Bolt on the first turn, you'll usually play a fetchland (which gets a shockland) or a tapped shockland. On the second turn, you'll ideally play a filter land that gets you the other colors that you need. On the third turn, you'll aim to play another land that doesn't come into play tapped, because turn 3 is where the deck has to start running. I played a single Urza's Factory and used it several times in the event. It's taking up a spell slot and it's there because two activations usually yield enough guys to end the game. I ran it over a manland because you absolutely don't want your land to get Lightning Bolted and be set back.
I had a few card access issues that limited me from running what I would have liked to play. The Dragonskull Summit is probably better as Blackcleave Cliffs, which is an excellent turn-3 card. The City of Brass is a stand-in for either Crumbling Necropolis or Stomping Ground. You never want to have to get Stomping Ground, but there are occasionally times where you'll need to get it post-board (you are holding Lightning Bolt and Nature's Claim, for example) and Flooded Grove tends to mellow out the card. I ran the two basics not because I feared Blood Moon, but because I found that Ghost Quarter and Path to Exile were much too good if I did not run any basics.
Making Sense of that Sideboard
Yes, that is a crazy sideboard. Let's get the easy stuff out of the way. Tarmogoyfs come in for Lightning Bolts and creature-kill against combo. You side out Loam and Crime against aggro and bring Goyfs and Firespout in. Slay is an insane value card, but it's more narrow without Nacatls to kill. You've got two counters that you can bring in against most combination decks. At one point, I was running Mystic Snake as a potent counter and creature. I haven't completely dismissed it. Venser's Journal is unbeatable against Burn and Boros decks. It's goofy, but it works when it hits. I ran it over Clearwater Goblet because the Goblet is terrrrible with Blood Moon in play. Obstinate Baloth is another beater against control and also works well againt Jund, which I feared. I run Claim as a Snapcaster favorite and kill spell against Affinity and Twin. Seal of Primordium comes down before Blood Moon does and it really constrains an Affinity opponent, who must overcommit their Platings to beat it. It also constrains Twin decks into winning with Kiki-Jiki, which eats Bolts. Creeping Corrosion is a gamewinner against Affinity, but it also kills your Relics; it may be better as another Grudge. Nihil Spellbomb was okay, but it doesn't get past Martyr's Leyline of Sanctity. I'd rather have a Withered Wretch.
If I had all the space in the world, I would run 4 Sun Droplets. Two of those will unwind any aggro deck. I also got a lot of use out of Scepter of Fugue, but my teammate Kevin Cron suggested that I'd rather peel a Tarmogoyf in the midgame than a scepter against control or combo. I also had a lot of fun with Exile into Darkness. That card is a potent machine against Martyr decks, but I simply lacked room.
January 14: 61 People Come to Play in the Modern Warfare Tournament in Columbus, Ohio
I was fortunate to have most of the cards in this deck. I borrowed the other from my teammate and friend, Kevin Cron. Kevin wasn't playing in the event and he was happy to loan me cards. Actual conversation:
me: "Do you have a Vendilion Clique? I think I need one."
Kevin: "Oh, I have a real nice one of those... [produces a Japanese foil copy] I got on that card pretty early."
Portions of my deck ended up superpimped, thanks to Kevin's generosity.
On the morning of the event, I bought a Kashi Go-Lean protein bar because I'm on Tim Ferriss' slow-carb diet. Bad mistake, the thing was dense and awful. I packed some Burt's Bees chapstick - tech I got onto years ago, since you're talking for hours in a tournament and it's easy to get dehydrated. I showered and put on nice clothes because I like to look nice and besides, cardigans are optimal heat-regulating garments.
Here's how the day went!
Round 1: Splinter Twin (featuring Sam Stoddard!)
I had an innate sense that I would be paired against Sam in the first round and it beared out. Sam and I talked before the event; I knew he was on Twin and he knew I had something goofy. Twin usually beats goofy decks, so I was prepared to lose my first match. In the first game, I had the Doom Blade for the first Exarch, but he got the second one through and killed me.
In the second game, I land a Goyf on turn 2. I cast Fall and take out a Kiki-Jiki and a Splinter Twin on the next turn. I pound Sam down to 2 life, then finish him with a Lightning Bolt backed with two Mana Leaks.
In the third game, I get a Coalition Relic out and then a Tarmogoyf. Sam plays a Blood Moon; I am holding Negate, but I don't fight it because it won't actually affect the game. I attempt to Nature's Claim the Moon later, but Sam peels off a Dispel for it. Sam valiantly played blockers, but my Tarmogoyf was joined by its cousin and a Mulldrifter. I ended the game with three Goyfs in play and a win in the first round.
Round 2: U/R Storm Combo
My opponent was a nice dude, even nicer because he accidentally and obviously flipped a Gitaxian Probe while shuffling. What was seen could not be unseen. I felt bad for him because he lost a significant advantage. In the first game, I had a turn-2 Withered Wretch followed by a turn-3 Vendilion Clique, but those were not enough to overwhelm his combo. He tore through most of his deck and then found three Grapeshots to kill me outright.
Storm decks are graveyard-reliant, so the Spellbomb was necessary to slow them down. They also tend to use Empty the Warrens, so I upped my Firespout count and kept that Maelstrom Pulse in. In retrospect, it might have been nice to have a Nature's Claim for his Pyromancer Ascensions.
In the second game, I get a Goyf early, but I'm only doing 2 damage a turn. He eventually grows to a 4/5. My opponent plays a Blood Moon. He gets Pyromancer Ascension going and puts four copies of Grapeshot on my Goyf. I remind him that it has 5 toughness and I let him take back the Grapeshot. Probably should not have done that, looking back on it. He instead casts Empty the Warrens and then casts his Grapeshot to kill that Goyf. I'm fine with this because I am holding Firespout, so I clear out his board on the next turn. I cast Gifts for the Crime engine and blew away his hand. He had a shot with a Seething Song to flash back Past in Flames, but I had the Mana Leak and it was off to the third game!
In the third game, I hit a curve to die for. I drew a Nihil Spellbomb on my turn, so I took a bolt to the face and played a fetchland into a Watery Grave for it. On the next turn, I played a Blood Crypt and hit him with Fall for two rituals. On the third turn, I played a Tarmogoyf and Spellbombed his graveyard to take out a Desperate Ravings. On the fourth turn, I Snapcasted my Fall to hit him for two more cards. He was out of the game at this point, with only one card in hand. My monsters finished him soon afterward. He said that my deck was made to beat combo, which was news to me - it's kind of an unfocused pile, but it has a little something for everyone.
Round 3: Affinity
Game one, I have the Lightning Bolt for his Plated creature and a Doom Blade for the Signal Pest. I get a Damnation off and he's looking at a Plating without any guys to put it onto. He is in topdeck mode but I am at ONE LIFE at this point. It is imperative to get a Mana Leak to fight any burn spells from him. I have a Leak in hand and a Snapcaster, so I Gifts a pile that nets me another Leak and Snapcaster. When it's that or a Wurmcoil Engine, you get the other cards! I had Godo in hand since Day One, but I needed to get to eight mana so that I could both play Godo and keep Leak up. I hit it several turns later and make Godo and the Batterskull shoot me up to 9 life. He's dead after that.
-1 Life from the Loam
-1 Raven's Crime
-1 Rise/Fall
-2 Shriekmaw (which cannot kill artifacts)
-1 Withered Wretch
-1 Vendilion Clique
-1 Mulldrifter
+1 Ancient Grudge
+1 Firespout
+1 Nature's Claim
+1 Seal of Primordium
+4 Tarmogoyf
In the second game, I am on the draw and he gets me for exact damage on turn 4 or 5.
In the third game, I agonized over whether to get a Forest or Breeding Pool on the first turn. I went with Forest, which made all the difference. I played a Seal of Primordium on the second turn to his Cranial Plating. I played a Coalition Relic and he played Blood Moon instead of attaching his Plating. Big Mistake. I stored up a mana and cast Damnation on the next turn, wiping his board away. He's got another guy out and I have to Seal his Plating to keep the damage off. I eventually Maelstrom Pulsed his two Vault Skirges. He plays a second Blood Moon. There are only five minutes left in the round at this point and I quickly Gifts for some really valuable cards - Ancient Grudge, Snapcaster Mage, Wurmcoil Engine and Cruel Ultimatum. I got the Grudge and the Mage. This entire process took about twenty seconds. I played out my Batterskull and a Tarmogoyf and then used Grudge to contain a Plated guy. Time was called and I knew I had the game locked up. I Snapcasted my Pulse to kill both of his Memnites, then sent in with the team for 12 damage. He died the next turn.
Round 4: UGR Delver
J-Cal, my terrifying Round 4 opponent.
I played against Columbus local and Good Player, Justin Calhoun, who admitted that he was related to John C. Calhoun. I kept a decent hand against creatures and I was scared when he got a Steam Vents on his first turn. My hand was definitely not a combo-breaker. He played a Breeding Pool and Tarmogoyf on the second turn, which I happily killed with a Lightning Bolt. I got a Coalition Relic out on my third turn. He played a Vendilion Clique and I tapped the Relic to Bolt his Clique in response to its ability. J-Cal then passes the turn and I deploy a Batterskull. He's got the Flame Slash for the Germ, but my next two turns involve paying retail for two Mulldrifters. With two fliers and a Batterskull looking to equip something, my opponent scoops and we are off to the second game.
Sideboarding was challenging, since I don't have many good spells against him to bring in. I took out a Clique because it doesn't beat a Tarmogoyf and he plays his own. I'd rather have a Lightning Bolt than a Clique against most of his deck.
+1 Slay
+3 Tarmogoyf (I couldn't find room for a fourth)
We go back and forth. He uses Ancient Grudge on my Coalition Relic, which is super awkward because I am holding another Relic in hand. He has a Tarmogoyf out that is doing some serious damage to me and I can cast Gifts Ungiven. He has three cards in his hand at this point, and I held two Lightning Bolts that could kill that Goyf. Thus, instead of getting a setup where I had some kill spells, I went for a long-term plan. I ended up Criming away his hand and getting both of my Bolts to take out his green meanie. Unfortunately, I get knocked down to six life, and he manages to get Delver of Secrets and Snapcaster Mage into play. The flip that turns on his Delver is a Cryptic Command, so I needed to Crime that away (he countered and drew) before I could kill his Delver. You can see where going for the two kill spells would have just lost me the game right here.
I ended up casting a Lightning Bolt on his Delver, taking a hit from the Snapcaster, and then playing my own Tarmogoyf to stop his attacking wizard. I was at one life this entire time. I get a second Tarmogoyf down and J-Cal scoops up his cards, knowing he couldn't fight out of a Crime-lock and two Goyfs.
I drew the next two rounds into the T8. Glorious!
Myself on the left, drawing into the T8 after David Gardner and I do the math and realize that we can both ID in.
Top 8: David Gardner with Martyr
I am not looking forward to this match, since David's deck has a good long game and a hardcast Proclamation that brings back Serra's Ascendants will kill me. In the first game, he gets a Martyr, an Ascendant and two Squadron Hawks into play, which I Firespout off the board. He sacrifices the Martyr in response, but I have the Lightning Bolt to kill his Ascendant before it can become a 6/6. I ended up casting Damnation, but David had constant pressure because he had a Ranger of Eos. I got out a Withered Wretch and dismantled his recursion and got Godo + Batterskull online. I had a Mana Leak for the second Ranger. At this point, he had a Student of Warfare with five counters. I was not attacking because it would kill both of my guys, and the thought never occurred to me to just give Godo the Batterskull and attack in. This cost me the game and I lost.
-2 Mulldrifter
+1 Firespout
+1 Nihil Spellbomb
I have a great hand - Spellbomb, Gifts, Rise/Fall. David starts turn 0 off with Leyline of Sanctity, so my hand goes all to hell. I should have seen that coming! I got out a Withered Wretch, which ate a Path to Exile. I played Godo + Batterskull, but he had Path and Oblivion Ring. What a monster. My kingdom for a Tranquility! I can't do a darn thing and I just lose.
I ended up getting some cash and store credit. It was a great venue and I had a blast playing the format. I'm going to continue working on the deck; it may not need Godo, it may not need Mana Leaks. I would probably cut the Journal and Spellbomb from the sideboard for another Maelstrom Pulse and a Withered Wretch. I've got this long list of cards for the sideboard, which I consult when different decks get big. Cards like Persecute and Haunting Echoes, for example, are murderous against Martyr (if you get past their Leylines).
If you're looking for a fun, customizable deck that plays greedy spells but doesn't lose to Blood Moon, this is your deck. On a long enough timeline, this list will defeat just about anyone. Ask questions in the comments below and I will do my best to respond!
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Conflux was the second set from Shards of Alara - more gold spells, more interesting monsters and of course, more pricey cards for you! The set has a good amount of tournament-worthy cards, on top of a solid base of fun Commander spells. Let's take a look at the set!
Apocalypse Hydra
$1.75
If this were a "mere" rare, it probably wouldn't push a dollar. Being a Mythic means it's at about the Mythic bulk price. It scales into pretty awesome Commander size with more mana - eight mana makes a 12/12, which is an appreciable beast for that amount.
Banefire
$1.75
X-spells are getting better and better with newer sets. This makes a game-ending flameout into something approaching Urza's Rage. If you're a newer player, you've got to realize that X-spells used to be terrible. Ghitu Fire terrible. Would you rather flame someone with Ghitu Fire, hoping to sneak it in at their end-step to avoid a counterspell, or would you rather punch seven mana into this and never worry about a Cancel or Circle of Protection? Banefire has got a lot of casual appeal and people try it now and then in Commander decks.
Child of Alara
$1.50
One of the quirks of the Commander rules is that you can choose to have your general go to the graveyard when it dies. Child decks are based on this idea; they are frequently 60-70% lands, with things like Phyrexian Tower to kill their general and Volrath's Stronghold to recur it. Five colors means you can play anything in the format. It's a cool use of the rules, but it's hard to make a Child deck that uses its general without being overpowering. After a certain number of board wipes, everyone is sufficiently fed up with your general that the games become unfun!
Ethersworn Adjudicator
$1.25
This guy is really appealing to a casual player. You look at it and your mind races to the easy conclusion: with enough mana, you can machine-gun the board! Adjudicator is, sadly, too mana-intensive to pull this off most of the time, but it easily acts like a beater with pseudo-Vigilance and a really awesome rattlesnake effect in multiplayer games. I remember going to the Conflux prerelease and praying to open this, since it dominated sealed games.
Exotic Orchard
$1.25
The only time that this really saw play was as a 1-of in Cruel Control decks. If the opponent played lands like Vivid Creek, you didn't have to worry about making the right kinds of mana anymore. It pops up in Commander decks that use a lot of color-specific cards, since it almost always taps for rainbow mana.
Font of Mythos
$1.75
This is pretty straightforward - it's a double Howling Mine. It's so obvious that I wonder why we haven't seen it sooner. The Font holds a little bit of value precisely because it is good in Turbo-Fog decks. The way those decks work, be they in Modern, casual or Standard when Conflux was legal, was simple. Load up on a bunch of Fog spells and hope to have one each turn. Howling Mines and Fonts fueled your deck. It didn't matter if the opponent was drawing five cards per turn if they could never get a creature to hit. Eventually, you could deck the opponent - they drew first from every Font, so you could kill them without even running a dedicated kill spell.
Inkwell Leviathan
$1.75
A simple creature with three deadly interlacing abilities. Inky saw a bit of play in Vintage as a Tinker target before Blightsteel Colossus showed up. It also comes up in Legacy Reanimator decks from time to time. It's a huge commitment to get into play, but there's just no realistic way for most decks to get rid of the Leviathan when it hits.
Knight of the Reliquary
$8.50
Knight has always been a chase-worthy rare. It shot up to $14 during Extended, only to drop below $9 after it saw a promotional reprinting. Aside from just beating in, Knight can act like a Sylvan Safekeeper when he grabs a Sejiri Steppe or stop a reanimation problem with a Karakas. Knight even hunts down Arena in Modern, limiting Splinter Twin decks from comboing out. Knight is a pretty safe bet as a card to hold onto; if Bant or Zoo decks become dominant again in Modern, I'd expect it to hit an easy $12.
Maelstrom Archangel
$3.75
It's easy to tell why this card is popular with the casual crowd. It's an Angel, for one. It's a five-color card, which makes some people go nuts. It's a 5/5 flier for five mana that lets you cheat anything in your hand into play. Practically speaking, you'll not often have cards worth putting down with the Angel that you couldn't cast anyway - believe me, I've got a bit of experience on this one. If you're using her to cast Tidings, you're doing well. If you're using her to put that Mind Stone into play, it's probably not worth the work of getting all five colors together. That does not hold a lot of players back, though.
Martial Coup
$1.50
This is a mega-expensive Wrath of God because, let's be honest, you'll never cast it for less than 5WW unless you absolutely need chump blockers. When it works, the effect is huge. I expect to see some UW Tron decks in Modern start running with the Coup instead of spending time on things like Mindslaver. Why steal a turn when you can wipe the board and drop a two-turn clock?
Master Transmuter
$4.50
The Master started a long and steady climb up in price. First, people unsuccessfully attempted it in Vintage, trying to sneak Colossi into play. Apparently, a lot of people have not given up that dream, since this clocks in at a very respectable price for a rare. In a pinch, you can return the Transmuter to your hand, but it's much more fun when you can bounce things like Ichor Wellspring for value.
Noble Hierarch
$14.75
Hierarch is a hugely pricey card and it's not coming down any time soon. Exalted is a very popular casual mechanic that crops up in tournament decks from time to time. I got destroyed in Vintage just last week by an Exalted deck with a clock and all the answers. Exalted is a keyword specific to the Alara block. Unless we see it again in the future for another set, I doubt Noble Hierarch will ever be reprinted. Thus, this price will likely remain stable forever. It's unfortunate that this is the case; Hierarch is a solid card that players want access to. You can't reprint it all the time or you just destroy the reason for running other mana elves, but a boxed set with these here and there wouldn't hurt...
Path to Exile
$3.00
Path is the new Swords to Plowshares. It's highly efficient. It's a Modern and Legacy staple. Path has never even dipped below $3 in all its time. That it has not jumped up significantly tells me that $3 is about what the market will bear for this card; no use hoarding them.
Progenitus
$11.25
Beyond its general appeal, this card is a study in what a truly casual-popular Mythic can achieve. You've got to have a card at this one's level, but this is proof that the market will sustain a mythic at over ten dollars. Part of Progenitus' value comes from the fact that it is five colors. You can bring it up with Natural Order or send it away for Contagion. It makes a dominating Commander if you can live long enough to summon it and aside from board wipes, there's no getting rid of this hydra.
Reliquary Tower
$3.00
What happens when you print a casual uncommon with an ability that everyone loves? You get a sleeper hit uncommon. These are $3 and they sell like wildfire. Though they'd make a great reprint candidate (good art, generic name, great ability), they might ever see a reprint. To shed some light on why people dig this, I'll share an anecdote. When Wizards did market research long ago and showed players pictures of every card in Exodus, they picked Spellbook as their favorite, far beyond any other. That spirit is still alive and well with Reliquary Tower.
Thornling
$1.25
This is how low a Mythic can drop when it doesn't strike a chord for anyone. Thornling was a necessary evil in some Constructed decks. The longer the game went, the better this card became when you ripped it off the top of the library. Nobody was exactly thrilled to run it and it didn't even trade on the Morphling art the way that Torchling did. Green has some interesting keywords and abilities, but this card took a great idea and killed it by using the most boring Green abilities around.
Wall of Reverence
$1.75
People like lifegain, people like big walls. This card was briefly All That in Constructed because 5C Control players often cast this on the turn after they played a Plumeveil. A 1/6 wall, a 4/4 wall and four life per turn was nearly unassailable by aggressive decks. Wall of Reverence shot up to $6 at that time, but it has settled in the meantime.
That's it for Conflux! Join me next week when we take a look at Alara Reborn, an all-gold set that pushed the color relationships to their limits. Until then,
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Spoiler Season is any speculators favorite part of each set; I know it is for me. Wizards has done a great job of keeping things under wraps this time around, and each night Iāve been excited to see what they come up with. Because some of the mechanics in Innistrad are somewhat linear, we can look for enough support for some existing cards to shoot up as well.
First, we will look at some of the cards I feel have some merit in constructed.
Increasing Devotion- This card has an interesting tension. Most decks that want a token producing sorcery are going to find 5 mana to be a lot. I do think a tokens deck will exist, and itās likely this card will make the cut, but wonāt likely be a 4-of, and likely too expensive to see play in Modern. I think it will sit above bulk value, but not much higher, thereās certainly a chance it hits $2 if more than one deck in standard ends up playing it.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben- This is another Sphere for Vintage, and a great support card for any white creature deck in Standard. Her Legendary status will keep her off the high-ticket list, but rest assured, sheāll see some play. She pre-orders on StarCityGames.com at $3.99 and I see that as pretty sharp. It will likely end up around $2-3 as the format develops.
Increasing Confusion- While a personal fan of milling cards, this one is strong but nothing to write home about. The casual crowd will always have some demand for something like this, and thereās no doubt people will at least try it in Standard, I just donāt think a Sorcery that doesnāt affect the board will ever be worth tapping out for. Just above bulk levels, for casuals.
Gravecrawler- Iām a huge fan of this guy. He sits at $5 on StarCityGames.com, and I think that price is fair. They opened at $3, and I liked it at a buy there, but at $5 I dont think youāre risking much by waiting at this point. Thereās all types of casual combos that this guy will play with, and heāll likely find a home in an aggro deck as well. I see him at $4-6 throughout his Standard life.
Zombie Apocalypse- Donāt get me wrong, this card wont see play, but I think foils of this card will be fan favorites, and might fetch some good money. Keep your eye out for ones to snag. Outside of that likely a bulk rare.
Ghoultree- This is one Iāve been hearing some mutterings about as a very strong Standard card. I just donāt see it. Youād have to be reliably casting this guy for 3-4 mana for it to be a good value. Since he has no evasion, heās really not any better than a Titan or Wurmcoil, so if you have to pay 5-6 mana for him, Iād rather have a better creature. The types of deck that could potentially play him for a single G will love him, but its going to be such a small part of the Metagame that Ghoultree should stay pretty cheap. $1-2.
Wolfbitten Captive (Krallenhorde Killer)- This is the one-drop that the Werewolves needed. If Werewolf aggro is going to exist, its going to hold a lot of Rares, and since most of those Rares will see minimal to no play in other decks, I expect most of them to stay pretty low, but if there are any that branch into other decks as well, they may fetch a pretty penny. On StarCityGames.com heās $2, and that seems fair to me. Ultimately, I see him being in the $1-2 range as long as a Werewolf deck exists. He does have a decent enough ability to be considered in other decks, and Green doesnāt have many aggressive 1 drops.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad - Holy Moly, Iām in love with this guy. Iād never plan on paying $60 for it, but $30-35? Sure. Thatās where heāll end up, at most. $20 at least. B/W is an awkward mana combination, and unless thereās some fixing left to be seen, Isolated Chapel is not enough to make this guy easy to cast. Iād like to think a W/B tokens deck will exist, but thatās not enough decks (1) to warrant a $60 card. Remember, while this has a lot of the same features as Jace, the Mindsculptor (costs 4, awesome abilities, small set release) it is no Jace. Jace was mono-colored and appeared in 80-90% of the decks at the time. Sorin simply canāt do that. His mana requirements mean a deck will need to be built around him (akin to Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas). Being more powerful and less narrow than Tezzeret, will keep him above that basement level, but $30 is about what Iād be willing to pay for these, if I needed them for Standard.
Falkenrath Aristocrat- This hasty flier will see play, and the $10 pre-order price, again, is not far off from what I expect to see. Her multi-color is hurting her, and the fact that her cost is identical to Oliviaās isnāt great either. I imagine the Aristocrat as the aggro deckās Olivia. $10 is way too high based only on playability, but there will be a certain amount of casual demand for this card, while a R/B aggro deck will certainly play it, I think $6-8 is the appropriate range.
The Dark Ascension cards arenāt the only ones we need to look at. What existing cards are going to see a bump? Iāve got a few on my list.
Mayor of Avabruck- Iād like to see this guy hit $5+ now. Heās got enough support (and another lord) to support a Werewolf Aggro deck, while his efficient cost, and human pumping abilities give him tons of applications in other decks too. I swooped up a handful of these.
Visions of Beyond- Between Burning Vengeance style decks (with the appearance of Faithful Looting and Secrets of the Dead) and any Increasing Confusion decks, I think Visions has some room to grow. As someone who has played it in a few rogue decks, drawing 3 with this card is insane, and if a Tier 1 deck has the ability to do it, this card could easily hit $5.
As more spoilers appear, follow me on Twitter (@torerotutor), I always give my first impression there, while I give my detailed price predictions here. Next week, more spoilers! See you guys then!
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Mike McDermott: You can't lose what you don't put in the middle.
[pause]
Mike McDermott: But you can't win much either.
This quote is from Rounders, my favorite movie. If you havenāt yet seen it you absolutely need to put it on your to-do list. Itās all about the grind. For Matt Damonās character, itās the poker tables. For us, itās the trade tables. The movie is a perfect analog to the life many Magic players lead.
But what does this have to do with anything?
Ah, yes. The cryptic Twitter messages Iāve been leaving all week point to this, something Iāve already touched on in our forums. One of my biggest weaknesses in 2011 was an inability to put my money where my mouth was, no matter how confident I was in a call. This year is going to be different. When I saw nearly 100 copies of this card sitting at 50 cents, I knew I had found a perfect opportunity to do some speculating.
So what did I finally drop some speculative cash on? Guesses on Twitter ranged from Unbreathing Horde (interesting potential there), to Rooftop Storm to Undead Alchemist. Nope.
So why did I jump headfirst into this card? The first reason was this deck featured on SCG that makes very good use of Splinterfright. Another reason was the new previews from Dark Ascension that indicate a lot more playable cards that care about how many critters are in your graveyard. Thirdly, the UG Mill Yourself deck has been tearing it up in Block on Magic Online. While this helped solidify my decision, it also meant that buying on MTGO was less attractive than buying in paper.
So once youāve identified a card you want to speculate on, whatās the next step? What Iāve always done (and thereās nothing wrong with this) is to simply target the card in trades. This has certainly made me money in the past, but itās always frustrating to have only a few copies of a card rather than dozens when it spikes. This is what happened to me with Spellskite last year. I knew the card was nuts, and picked up four or five the weekend before it broke out and quadrupled in price. This made me money, yes, but nowhere near as much as it would have if I had bought a hundred at a dollar apiece.
So determined to buy in for cash, I next took to Ebay to see what was going on with Splinterfright.
Obviously not worth much there, but you see that itās really not very far off from the retail prices I found on TCGPlayer. So at this point I made the decision to buy from a retailer, but which one?
When scanning TCGPlayer prices, you see a ton of stores that offer extremely low prices; the problem is that they only have a few in stock. To find a store with a large number in stock, you have to pay more, sometimes quite a bit more. Luckily for me, that wasnāt the case with āFright, as Pack Fresh Magic had 94 in stock at 49 cents apiece. So I moved on this immediately, and only paid a few dollars shipping, making the average cost of each card 52 cents. Note that if you try to buy out numerous dealers at cheaper prices youāll often end up losing any advantage you gained when shipping gets tacked on to your order.
Another interesting note is that when I went to Pack Fresh Magicās site directly, their software (BidWicket, I believe) would only let me purchase 20 at a time. So I went back to TCGPlayer to place my order, and didnāt run into the same restriction, which I find interesting. Regardless, the store appears to have honored my order and sent notice that my cards have been shipped. I havenāt actually received them yet, but in theory I will in the next few days.
So what now? For starters, Iāll be hyping the deck to everyone I can (and in my testing itās really not that far off from being good). But after that, thereās nothing to do but wait. Iāve got almost two years for this thing to make a splash, and at some point it has to move enough to pay off for me. The key to this working out in my favor is that I got in so cheap. At 52 cents a pop, I realistically only need the card to hit $2 retail to be in the money, though at that point itās pretty negligible.
What Iām hoping is that it takes a route similar to Tempered Steel, which spiked to 10+ for a time. I really donāt need it to even go that high, Iāll be happy if it hits $4-5. Assuming I get even $2 apiece out of my copies when I sell them, Iāll be up about $150, which isnāt too shabby for the few hours of work I put into the investment.
Even if the deck never does anything and this move turns out to be a complete bust for me, Iām glad I did it. Iām no longer a broke college student, and even though Iām still a mostly broke college graduate, I generate enough income from Magic that it wonāt be the end of the world if Iām out $50 in a few months time.
On the other hand, if this move works out for me, it will easily generate a couple hundreds bucks I didnāt have before. And if you havenāt followed my work in the past, I tend to not put my Magic money back into Magic. Instead, I use it for very practical (though selfish) purchases, such as the new gaming desktop computer I just built. I was even able to use some of the money I made from Magic last year to help pay for part of my fianceeās engagement ring.
And for any of you with significant others who might not completely approve of your hobby, I suggest doing something like this. Theyāll change their tune when the money you make from Magic starts to make an impact on their lives rather than just continue to feed your cardboard habit.
There you have it ā the story of why and how I dropped $50 on a pile of a near-bulk in-print rare. I have no idea how this will work out for me (though it will be hard to lose too much here), but you can be sure Iāll let you know how it all goes down.
Until next week, I hope you guys are enjoying the spoilers as much as I am!
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter
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