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If any of you guys follow me on Twitter, you know I am far from boring. I am always speaking my mind, or giving a betting line on Jon Johnson getting knocked from a tournament, or something as simple as giving out my thoughts on Zendikar Full Art Lands (spoiler: not excited). However, sometimes, boring is a good place to be. It lets you refresh and recharge your mind and get a fresh prospective (although this week for me has been anything but boring due to family stuff going on). There are prereleases this weekend all over the world and we are a week away from Theros dropping, so I think now is a good time to be boring and just go over where I think Standard, Modern, and Legacy are going to go following the most recent results and Theros being added to the mix.
Standard
It's looking more and more like we are going to see a lot more mono and dual colored decks for the foreseeable future. The only big thing to take away from the SCG Atlanta this week in my opinion is that UWx control is going to be a front runner in the early format and everything else will work to beat it. The G/R decks are losing a lot of efficient creatures like the mana elves, Boar, Hellrider, and Thundermaw Hellkite among others. This being the case, it appears that some form of White Weenie, Rx and Bx Beats, and Fish are the early decks people are going to try to make work. There are so many two-power creatures for 1 in this new set that I think cheap efficient removal will be extremely important, so I expect to see a lot of play for Mizzium Mortars, Electrickery, and Anger of the Gods. As much as I hate to say it, I think Omenspeaker gets played to help slow the rush for the UWx control decks.
So, financially speaking, what does this mean? Well, first of all, I don't care if these decks are good or not, I am looking to make quick cash to boost my bank roll before I settle into the long haul before Standard PTQ season this winter. I think people are going to be so anxious to try something new other than Thragtusk mirrors that a lot of these cards are going to be in higher demand than usual this fall.
Mutavault is going to see a huge boost due to these one and two colored decks and it wouldn't surprise me to see it pass $20+ in the first month or so of the new set being legal. Voice of Resurgence and Boros Reckoner will both see huge spikes because they are among the best ways to deal with the rush of these early creatures, even though Glare of Heresy out of the sideboards for the White decks will be a bit of a pain to deal with.
Jace, Architect of Thought also is seeing its stock rise due to the +1 ability helping to keep you from dying while buying time to gain control of the game. I am also thinking we are going to see a large number of $1+ uncommons soon. They have really pushed the power level of uncommons in the Ravnica block that I can see the demand spike.
I don't want to go over which cards are good investments and which are not in Theros at this time because odds are that the majority of the cards are overpriced and 95% of them will drop significantly in value with in the month. I also have to question the intelligence of anyone giving predictions on the long term pricing of these cards because there will be 9 other sets coming out that will have an effect on the prices of the cards during their Standard lives.
I will say that all of the God cards except the Green one seem highly powerful and will command big numbers. Thoughtseize is going to be the stone nuts of course. I think that Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver and Ashen Rider are 2 mythics that people are not paying enough attention to. The other 2 planeswalkers seem to be a bit overhyped and in no way keep their insane prices.
Modern
I want to take about 50% of the credit for Ari Lax's article title this week due to Steve Boggemes and myself repeating "I'd buy that for a dollar" and "Dead or alive, you're coming with me" all weekend. Imagine the headlines if Alex Majlaton had won with Affinity in the city with one of the most famous robots of them all (yes, it is Affinity, and it will always be Affinity, not Robots). Unfortunately, that was not the case and this was GP Deathrite Shaman. There were 27 of a possible 32 Deathrite Shamans in the top 8, but I feel like if we try harder we can get those last 5 in Affinity and Melira Pod.
What can we take away from the top 8? Well, first is that Melira Pod won its third GP in a row. I am 50-50 that Birthing Pod will get banned anytime soon. I think you are just seeing really good players play the deck well. Same can be said about the BGx decks that dominated the other 6 spots in the top 8, all of the players except one are well accomplished players that choose a deck with very few terrible matchups and relied on their play ability to carry them. I also think people are starting to move towards more Thoughtseizes in the BGx decks because they can hit Birthing Pod where Inquisition of Kozilek cannot. If Pod gets the axe, I would expect Inquisition to start appearing more. Chandra, Pyromaster is going to start to see a lot more play too. This card is finally living up to the hype of being the best Chandra yet and should continue to see an impact in all 3 of the major formats.
What's the result of all of this? Something needs to change and I would bet 100% that in the next B&R announcement there will be a big change before the PTQ season for Modern. I could see a major shake up along the lines of banning Pod and/or Chord of Calling and an unbanning along the lines of Ancestral Vision, Wild Nacatl and Green Sun's Zenith. There are so many cards on the banned list for Modern and I think that is also a major issue for the format. The appeal of Legacy is getting to play with all of the awesome old cards and you really can't do that in Modern.
Legacy
Well, this is awkward. As I am writing this, Star City's website just crashed, so I guess I am covering SCG Philly and not Atlanta. I also don't think there is a lot that is going to change between now and when Theros really kicks into gear. Reanimator seems like the mostly likely deck to get a kick start. Entomb stands to be the big winner based on results, with Griselbrand and Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite all seeing a bump.
Oh, SCG is back up! Um...I don't want to delete what I wrote so I am just going to write more and talk about SCG Atlanta anyway. There was a lot of Delver in the top 8 and that got me thinking. There are two ways the market can go for Legacy. The first is that role-playing cards start to see rises in price. I think it is only a matter of time before cards like Cunning Wish, Sulfuric Vortex, Meddling Mage and the like get a bump in price. The other side is that the higher end cards start to dip such as Dual Lands, Lion's Eye Diamonds, and Force of Will. If they do dip, I expect buying would be the right play. They have all dipped before and then climbed steadily, and this isn't a onetime occurrence, This has been happening yearly since at least 2010.
That is it from me this week. Go to your prerelease. Have Fun. Support your local game store. Maybe leave all of the trade materials at home and just go play Magic for the day. That is my plan at least when I go to the Vault in Greensburg, PA for the weekend. They are giving away a FTV:20 for the Saturday and Sunday prereleases so that is where my attention will be all day.
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Temporal Fissure and Cloudpost are banned in Pauper
While the bannings of Invigorate, Empty the Warrens and Grapeshot in Pauper left me sad and confused, the most recent update to the ban list has me extremely excited. It seems obvious that the banning of Temporal Fissure will increase the relative power of Delver decks, the banning of Fissure in conjunction with the banning of Cloudpost opens up a lot of space in the format to play slower, more controlling decks. The best deck no longer stops you from playing the game around turn four and there’s no longer a default best start for the manabase of control decks.
These bannings will obviously have a lot of impact on my exploration into the Pauper format. I had some notes from a few dailies with Goblins recorded, but a good percentage of the matches I played were against decks that won’t survive the ban or will see some serious change post-banning. Perhaps most importantly, I believe that my list is in need of a good amount of change itself.
A fairly dramatic shift in the metagame is all but guaranteed, which impacts how one must think about deck and card selection. With Cloudpost out of the question and known combo decks out of the picture, I would wager that removal spells, while already good in the format, will gain a lot of stock. The only place where they’re weak is against the hexproof deck, which if popular will invite Edicts into the format which will likely prevent hexproof from ever actually being the best deck. Not to mention that Counterspells out of Delver are tough for hexproof as well.
If removal-heavy decks become better, as I predict they will, this bodes poorly for Goblins. While working on the deck I encountered a few Burn and Monoblack decks and the matchups have felt close to unwinnable.
That said, the purpose of this exercise isn’t to say what’s playable and what’s not. It’s to try new things and offer some insight. Since my last column I’ve adopted the 4x Kruin Striker build of Goblins, eschewing Goblin Matron, which didn’t add as much to the deck as I had hoped. I believe that the Striker Version will be the best version of the deck going forward, as Goblin Matron really doesn’t really help the deck grind anybody out (it is, after all, a 1/1) and Striker leads to the deck’s fastest, most consistent wins.
Skirk Prospector usually shows up alongside any list with four Strikers, but the card has proven completely underwhelming to me. The idea behind it is that you can use it to generate a lot of Kruin Striker/Foundry Street Denizen triggers without a lot of lands, but I’ve found that this will only win you a very small percentage of games that you wouldn’t win otherwise while leaving you with a pretty unimpressive 1/1 the rest of the time.
Two cards that I’ve been experimenting with are Mutagenic Growth and Mogg Fanatic. Growth has treated me very poorly and Fanatic has tested pretty well. The rationale behind Growth was that it helps fight removal, such as Electrickery, and to push through Kruin Striker. In practice, I boarded it out in basically every matchup. This deck just wants to play a creature every turn, attack, and play a small number of burn spells. Growth was off-plan, weak to bounce spells and at best a wash in a racing scenario.
Mogg Fanatic might not look like the most impressive option, and it’s certainly a much worse card than it once was, but it helps the Delver matchup quite a lot and plays remarkably well with Death Spark. Being a removal spell that enables Mogg Cohort is a pretty big game. Most lists play Goblin Arsonist if they want this sort of effect at all, but I find that the ability to shoot something whenever you want without needing to draw a Goblin Sledder is a relevant upside.
This is the 75 that I would recommend for week one of new Pauper:
”Goblins”
spells
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Death Spark
4 Foundry Street Denizen
1 Goblin Arsonist
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Cohort
4 Goblin Sledder
4 Mogg Conscripts
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Mogg Raider
4 Kruin Striker
4 Mogg War Marshal
lands
17 Mountain
sideboard
3 Smash to Smithereens
3 Pyroblast
1 Gorilla Shaman
4 Flame Slash
1 Death Spark
3 Sylvok Lifestaff
The set of Mogg Fanatics come at about a dime apiece, so the cost of the maindeck doesn’t really change. The Gorilla Shaman in the sideboard, on the other hand, is an outrageous six tickets, which will increase the decks cost from around 35 to 37 considering that I cut a Pyroblast, which is less relevant in the format. Truth be told, the Shaman is just a stand-in until I can figure out exactly where the format is going, and a card that hates on Affinity and opposing Viridian Longbows seemed okay for the time being.
Depending on how the meta shakes up and the deck’s new position in the metagame I could easily see playing some number of Martyr of Ashes in the sideboard. It’s already a fairly common sideboard choice, and it does something that none of your other cards come close to doing against decks that are better at swarming than you are.
Closing Thoughts on the Deck
I played some variant of Goblins in over a dozen dailies, and cashed right around half of them. Cashing one in three dailies leaves you about even, if slightly positive, so half put me up some tickets. That said, I never managed a single 4-0 with the deck, and the deck’s bad matchups are not only abysmal, but likely to become more prevalent. The cost of the deck is a little high for something that I don’t really see as being able of pulling off many 4-0s.
It’s possible that I’m just missing something, but I’ve spent a good amount of time trying to come up with a good sideboard strategy against removal heavy decks, but it just seems like they either stumble hard or kill you easily. As I said, I predict an increase in popularity of such decks, and I would make coming up with a solution to this problem that is better than “ignore it” a prerequisite to picking up Goblins.
The only important note on playing the deck that I haven’t covered is to make sure to manage your Death Sparks well. I tend to have some kind of video going on my other screen while I MODO and I’ve unwittingly ended up with a Lightning Bolt directly on top of my Death Spark more than once. If played correctly, Death Spark can crush the mirror, Delver, Elves and any other deck with a significant amount of x/1s, but it takes smart play to do so!
If anybody has any questions on the Goblins deck, any thoughts on what Pauper will look like going forward, or any feedback on how I go about analyzing decks for this series, as always, comments are encouraged!
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It’s that time again! Prerelease time, and I think it’s a safe bet there’s some new readers of this column who don’t know how I do these. So, before we go any farther, here’s the usual spiel.
For those of you not familiar with how I do set reviews, I start by giving you all a little credit. I don’t go card-by-card through the entire set and waste thousands of words telling you that obviously bulk rares are, in fact, bulk rares. Instead, I try to hit on the cards drawing the most hype as well as those I feel like you need to have on your radar for one reason or another, whether they be sleepers, overpriced, or so forth.
If you want to hear some financial thoughts besides mine on the new set, make sure to check out the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery when it comes out on Friday at GatheringMagic.com.
Caveats
With that said, I want to take a moment for a brief aside. We’ve got a ton of new readers here on QS lately, and that’s great. It means more opinions in the forums and more collaboration in general. It also means that, as writers, we have to keep our game up because some people reading this have maybe never read a single thing I’ve written before.
I feel like I should make a point that I’ve made elsewhere but not necessarily in a while. Here goes.
Do not blindly trust me.
I’ve been doing this for a while. I’ve been a weekly columnist for more than three years and I’m highly active in the community. I’ve been responsible for some of the best call shots on here, from Stoneforge Mystic to Huntmaster of the Fells to Boros Reckoner. I like to think I’m pretty decent at this speculating game.
I take accountability very seriously. When I first began writing, back in the Wild West days of MTG finance, so to speak, no one was accountable in their articles. There’d be a ton of “I hope you took my advice on this card, it went up two dollars!” while never mentioning the $20 card they told you to buy into that dropped to $15.
So I started set reviews, and more importantly, looking back on those set reviews and grading myself, as I will do with M14 next week.
And guess what? I’m wrong, too. Everyone is. No one can bat 1.000, and in baseball you’re a pro if you’re successful one out of three times.
So don’t take my advice just because it’s my advice. Consider my reasoning on cards, take it into account along with what other people are saying, and at the end of the day make your own decision.
Theros Time
I’ve been playtesting the new Standard format a bit, mostly using G/W Midrange as my baseline. I’ve discovered that G/W in particular is extremely powerful, with cards like Gyre Sage and Advent of the Wurm, as well as Fleecemane Lion, all quite strong. So as I review the set here, that’s the experience I have so far. I think control will be good, but it’s not as prevalent as it was in the Pro Tour.
The Cards
Ashen Rider
$8 now, and the only way I see this being relevant is in some sort of Reanimator shell. Since all we have now is the Whip, whose exile clause doesn’t exactly work with the Rider, I’m calling this to fall. Probably to like $3-4, since it’s still relevant in EDH.
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
Good card, and certainly relevant in control mirrors, though I’m pretty sure that’s it. It likely has some casual appeal, but I’m certain it’s coming down from $25 long before we see any rise in it. The fact that it doesn’t protect itself means playing it without backup just sets up trouble.
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Now here’s a Planeswalker I think is very good, and even though it’s preordering at $30 I think it’s the most likely to see a Jace-like jump to $50ish in the first few weeks. It creates a subgame where if the player doesn't very quickly handle Elspeth she takes over the game, not to mention she's a great stabilizer and helps to bring you back when behind.
That said, it’s more likely to settle at $15-20 in three months since it’s unlikely to be more than a two-of.
Gods
I want to address all of these together. I think they’re all solid, but overpriced at the moment.
I’ll leave it at that in terms of their current price, but these are difficult to evaluate because they’re novel in terms of Magic. This tripped me up with miracles a year ago, but I think the proper comparison is a kind of mini-Eldrazi.
I think they will be played in Standard, though in small enough numbers that the prices will all fall.
If there’s any target, I think it will be the white one, because the creature is more valuable than the ability.
That means you want stuff like Precinct Captain. The problem is I’m not positive the mana is there quite yet. Operating on the assumption that this god will be good but not until Born of the Gods comes out and we get more mana-fixing, it has an opportunity to dip but then pick back up, so it’s probably the best target if it goes cheap.
Master of Waves
I wish this was good, but it doesn’t pump Merfolk. While it’s a powerful effect and protection from red is nice, I don’t see it making a huge splash in older formats, and its prospects in Standard likely aren’t going to be enough to keep it $10.
Stormbreath Dragon
My pick for most overpriced card in the set. It’s cool and all, and protection from white is certainly relevant, but this thing is no Thundermaw Hellkite. Not only does it kill a turn slower (not counting monstrosity, which costs a million mana), but the monstrous effect has yet to deal more than one damage to me in test games.
This is certainly not a bulk dragon like we’re used to seeing, but $25 feels absurd, because this thing is no Thundermaw Hellkite, and unless Pro White really becomes that important I expect this thing will hit $15 before it hits $30, and I expect sub-$20 to be its eventual home.
Xenagos, the Reveler
I know I said the dragon is the most overpriced card, but this is close to it. $40 is clearly way too much, even for a powerful card.
The problem with Xenagos is this: it fights with Domri, and Domri wins that fight. Both want creatures in the deck, but you can only play so many non-creature spells in your Domri deck. I think it’s clear people will build Domri decks that may contain some Xenagos, rather than the other way around. It’s probably like a two-of in the Domri decks because the abilities are fine, but that’s about it.
Where this may be more likely to find a home is in the sideboards of said decks, because creating 2/2s for free was powerful when Garruk did it, and still is.
In the end, I’m calling $10-15 on this.
Anger of the Gods
Underpriced. This and Chained to the Rocks are the reasons I think RWU will be the dominant control weapon of choice, and it’s almost laughable how much better this is than even Supreme Verdict. I think the control decks will run both, but this actually deals with the problematic creatures way better than the more traditional Wrath.
I don’t think this hits $10 for more than a week, if that, but I do think it’s going to be more than $4 a month from now.
Boon Satyr
This is worth noting only because it has flash. It’s gotten almost no hype at $3, but against the control decks this is probably solid. Flash is super relevant, and along with Advent you get to play on your opponent’s turn. The bestow is just gravy here. It’s a fine pickup at $2 on the potential it hits $5+ in the first few weeks.
Bow of Nylea
Ryan and Jason are in deep on this card, but I don’t like it. Yes, it has five abilities, but none of them are game-breaking. It’s probably best used in some of the green creature mirrors, but even seeing play as a two-of or something doesn’t seem like to provide a ton of upside at $3.
Chained to the Rocks
Underpriced. $3-4 for this is really good, especially considering how many tools RWU (American) Control has right out the gates, notably with better mana than a lot of decks.
Curse of the Swine
For whatever reason, people are excited about this. But even at $3 I hate it. Sure, you may exile their god or whatever, but you’re gonna give them eight power worth of boars to kill you next turn, so who cares?
Fabled Hero
I don’t think this card is insane, but Wescoe will play the crap out of it, and he has proven he can win Pro Tours with such dudes. At $2, it’s a cheap buy-in that offers a high potential for profits.
Firedrinker Satyr
I don’t think this card is insane or anything, but it’s a two-power one-drop creature. We’ve seen these “RDW 1-drops” hit $6-8 in the first month in past sets, and this seems safe at $2.
Fleecemane Lion
Love the card, but overpriced at $8. Don’t think we’re going to see many rares sustain this price tag, much less ones as narrow as this awesome Watchwolf.
Hero's Downfall
$5-7 seems about right, but I want these in my binder this weekend. We have a new gold standard for removal, and these are sure to be popular.
Mistcutter Hydra
Don’t buy into the hype. Even $4 is too much. The abilities are cool, but it’s still basically just worse at every point on the curve than comparable creatures, which relegates it to possible sideboard use, and that’s it.
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
$10 is nuts for this. The card is cool, but it’s going to crash hard. I think it’s probably a good long-term play at that point, but that’s it. You need a devotion of four or more before it even generates extra mana, and at that point you’re probably not super in need of one or two more mana.
Prognostic Sphinx
Scry 3 is a lot of scrying. I’m not sure this is better than Aetherling as a finisher (I doubt it), nor am I sure if there’s a deck that even wants it right now. But the power level is high enough that at a buck I’m all about grabbing this in trades.
Rageblood Shaman
A lord here, and at a dollar, the price of a throw-in, I don’t mind picking these up. They’ll probably trade well, and who knows, maybe we’ll have a minotaur deck by the end of the block. You’ve got to play something with those Didgeridoo, right?
Soldier of the Pantheon
Another card I think belongs around $4-6 (it’s $4 right now), but more importantly one I really want in my binder. This is very powerful and I expect it to see play in several decks. I know this will trade well even if the price doesn’t move a ton.
Steam Augury
Going for more on eBay than the $3 it’s at on SCG. If that isn’t an indication, the fact that I believe RWU has a lot of tools already makes me want to get in on this. Sure, there’s “free” money to be had by arbitraging right now, but it’s not enough. I’m not positive buying in for cash is the right play ($2 or less I’d consider it, though), but I’m definitely picking these up in trade.
Swan Song
Cool card that will probably see play, but I have hard time believing it will be enough to hold $5. Get out now, will probably end up like $2. Remember, Counterflux sees play but is nearly bulk.
Sylvan Caryatid
This blocks just about everything from aggressive decks, doesn’t die to removal and ramps you. That’s a lot to like, even if the $6 preorder price isn’t. I want this card in my binder, though I don’t think there’s a ton of upside. But remember that despite a million printings, Birds of Paradise is almost always $5 when it’s in Standard.
Scrylands
I like the red-white one the most at $6, but in general I think they probably fall to $4-5 and sit there for a while. I also like trading into them at that price.
Happy Prereleasing
That’ll do it. Again, I tried to hit on some of the more important cards rather than every one in the set. If there’s any in particular I missed that you’d like my opinion on, just let me know in the comments and I’ll make it happen. I’m looking forward to the prerelease, and I hope you have fun at yours!
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I'm always reading about how risk averse you are. Then I hear descriptions of buying at prices I would never pay and selling at prices where I rarely find buyers. Any investment in Magic too risky to be considered suitable for the "risk averse". We have very little control over supply, and any card that meets with universal appeal is likely to meet an unequivocal banning. Occasionally supply and demand is predictable enough to grind out profits, but even then the MtG investor has very small windows of opportunity in which to make reasonable purchases and profitable sales.
Generally, most probably consider my style aggressive because I pick up cheap cards with little to no attention paid to their rarity. I want to own playable cards and I want to own them at prices that let me ignore number of reprints or any potential banning, and sell on my schedule.
When did you first trade MtG for profit? Did you receive or give up cash? Was it simple a trade for cards you needed to put in a deck? Unfortunately, the most informative Magic investments are rarely our found among those early trades. Recently I bought a collection of 25k cards for a little less than $850. A month later, having moved into a new place in the meantime, I am finally in the black and sitting on well over 24k worth of cards. I bought this collection knowing it contained some high dollar singles, but it was the huge amount of Mercadian Masks and Nemesis product the original owner had opened that made this a snap pick up. Â Confused? Today Card Kingdom is buying Masks Brainstorms for 75 cents, Cape Fear Games buys Masks Dark Rituals at 10 cents, and Flame Rift has online dealers offering 45 cents.
What Does This All Mean?
Here is a valuable lesson for your MtG investments: play-ability trumps all. That lesson is hard to learn grinding out singles at FNM, even if you are just looking to trade out stuff you can't buylist for things you can. Looking at someone's binder is not going to find you fifty copies of Brainstorm. Looking over a collection will show you where most of the value in MtG investing is really hiding.
Ideally, buying collections is a good place to start. Generally, you'll find better deals buying collections than you would anywhere else and you'll train your eye to catch those collections where a player happened to put together multiple copies of very liquid commons and uncommons just by playing at the right time. Someone selling a collection is going to find most of their high profile cards, but they are also just as likely to pass over their hundred dark rituals as worthless just because THEY have so many. There is another lesson here for the MtG investor: strong sets are worth investing deeply into.
Rather than judge a set on its rares and mythics, look for play-able commons and uncommons. A deep set has at least three cards at these rarities that demand play in either Modern, Legacy or Vintage. Recently, Wizards gave us New Phyrexia. Here we have a powerful new mechanic stuffed into a tiny set that bomb mythics and the ultimate utility rares.  All this comes with Beast Within, Blighted Agent, Despise, Dismember, Gitaxian Probe, Gut Shot, Mental Misstep, Mutagenic Growth, Shrine of Burning Rage, Dispatch, Tezzeret's Gambit and Vapor Snag. Buying New Phyrexia sealed product should have been obvious to most. Instead, speculators argued about particular cards to buy into. The inevitable [card]Mental Misstep[card] banning hurt singles investors much more than just it hurt the guy buying a case of New Phyrexia.
Buying sealed product is probably the simplest way to invest in MtG. Obtaining booster boxes is an exercise in finding truly deep sets, favoring smaller sets because they provide density and being patient. Allow yourself the dilemma of figuring out if you should be opening and breaking down sealed product or just flipping it. With Planechase, Duel Decks and similarly fixed products you might think this an easy decision, but the MtG market is very inefficient. The same buylist will pay more for the contexts of a Duel Deck than they will for the sealed product, for example. Generally, I take this as a hold signal. I am in no hurry to sell products dealers can't price appropriately. Unless I can find a buyer offering much more than dealers, I am content to just sit on the stuff.
If you feel you've exhausted the collection and sealed product markets and are ready for a triumphant return to buying and selling singles for profit remember the whole inefficient MtG market thing. While selling cards from the 25k collection I came across at least three instances with a negative spread. That is to say, TCG was selling copies for less than dealers were buying. I was able to buylist a foil Flame Rift to ABUgames for $17, and today copies are still for sale at TCG for just $15 (Cape Fear's buylist price btw). You shouldn't be paying anything near TCG for cards, unless that TCG price is less than a dealer's buy price.
Turning Theory into Practice
I view the purchase and sale of singles as the riskiest type of investment MtG investment and that means I want bigger returns here than anywhere else. That means buying up playable foils and low print run stuff at or below buylist and waiting for the right buyer. ABUgames did not buy my foil Flame Rift to sell it for a loss, they know there IS a market for this stuff and they know where to find it: Big MtG events. If you want to find buyers for things you can't seem to move locally, that also have strong online pricing, then you need to go to more events. There you will find stores offering competing bids for your cards, offering competing pricing for your cash and every type of Magic player in the game with whom you can buy/sell/trade.
Don't be content with your local Magic scene as the primary source of your sales. Instead, acquire things locally no one is playing, knowing there are enough buyers online and at larger events. If you ever feel like your plays in singles are drying up, take a quick look at finished Ebay auctions. How does the price for cards compare between Ebay and TCG? As long as auctions are ending higher than the deals you can find on TCG, you can be comfortable in the knowledge that most of the sellers are distressed. Take advantage, and if you feel you've got to pay more than buylist for anything - have your buyer in mind already.
Even though I admit that sealed stuff is the easiest way to invest in MtG, the benifits of collection buying make it my favorite investment vehicle. Feel like you missed out buying New Phyrexia sealed stuff? buy a player's collection that started and finished around that time. Think your Champions Gold Bordered Decks were worthless? Be thankful you found ABUgames buying everything in those boxes, including basic lands, at well above bulk. Since buying sealed is cost prohibitive and collections are less common you'll often be looking in someone's binder for a deal. I think that's fine when trading cards for cards, but when cash can go so much further I wish people would be much more aggressive floating buyout offers for stuff in binders. I think plenty of players just want to open another pack and paying below buylist for a shockland lets them do just that.
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My journey to Detroit this past weekend started from a strange series of events earlier this year. It all began at GP Pittsburgh.
One of my favorite parts about Magic is trading. I love bringing my binder to events looking for new, interesting, or undervalued cards. Hitting the trade tables is something I try to do as often as I can manage between rounds at whatever event I find myself at. On top of normal trades, I also speculate on cards as well as buy and sell collections.
About a month before GP Pittsburgh, I bought three small collections. Two of the collections I bought from friends because one needed money and the other was no longer playing competitive Magic. The third collection I found on Craigslist and it turned out to be close to the description online. In addition to selling most of those three collections, I wanted to pare down my own collection.
With three collections and a large portion of my cards, moving everything to dealers at GP Pittsburgh seemed like the swiftest way to turn the cards into cash. As you can imagine, that took quite a long time for so many cards.
After speaking with a number of dealers, I found myself at the RIW Hobbies booth. Not only were they willing to buy my cards, they helped me close the hall in order to do so. Even though every other dealer had packed up, they still stayed to look through my boxes of cards. It was this night that lead to them sponsoring me for GP Detroit.
As you can imagine, I was stoked to be sponsored for a GP, but it was a bit more pressure than I expected as well. After doing so well at the last Modern ptq with Grixis Delver, I thought playing that deck was the best decision I could make. I trained hard and tweaked my list for the metagame. Here’s what I ended up playing.
Grixis Delver
by Mike Lanigan
Untitled Deck
Creatures
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Deathrite Shaman
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Dark Confidant
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique
Spells
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Pillar of Flame
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
4 Serum Visions
1 Spell Snare
3 Remand
1 Mana Leak
1 Electrolyze
3 Cryptic Command
Lands
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Darkslick Shores
3 Creeping Tar Pit
1 Watery Grave
1 Steam Vents
1 Blood Crypt
1 Breeding Pool
2 Island
1 Swamp
Sideboard
3 Ancient Grudge
1 Pillar of Flame
1 Rakdos Charm
3 Back to Nature
1 Spell Pierce
1 Spellskite
1 Thoughtseize
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Go for the Throat
1 Jace Beleren
1 Counterflux
If you were following my articles from Modern PTQ season, you may notice most of the changes were made to the sideboard. The main deck stayed intact other than some minor changes like a Pillar of Flame.
As far as the sideboard goes, it should be clear that I wanted many cards against two specific aggro decks. Both Affinity and G/W Bogle are extremely fast, quite unforgiving, and easy to hate on if you dedicate enough cards to do so. For as many cards as this Delver deck can see over the course of even a short game, I found five to be the right number of cards to drastically alter the matchup in my favor.
Before extensively testing these matchups, I was only boarding two or three cards, which was largely ineffective. I lost so many games to those two decks in testing, I nearly changed decks a couple days before the event. Instead of bailing on a deck I knew thoroughly inside and out, I steadied my resolve and came up with a new sideboard plan.
Note though that I did not completely remove all my other sideboard plans from the equation. I am bringing in five cards each for those two decks, but the Pillar of Flame and the Rakdos Charm for Affinity also come in for other matchups as well. The same goes for the Spell Pierce and Spellskite, which help against Bogle and other decks as well.
The most important quality about this sideboard is that outside of the six artifact and enchantment hate cards, all of the other choices can be used in a variety of ways. With Modern always in flux, five cards may not always be needed just for one deck and some of the singletons may need to shift as well, but I implore you, do not cut the Counterflux!
I wanted to take a moment to focus on the Counterflux, because otherwise everyone might not know that it was one of the best cards in the sideboard. Against so many decks (Tron, Scapeshift, or UWR) having a hard counter they can't overcome is clutch. That one card won me multiple games where no other card would have. If the game goes long, Snapcaster can also flash it back. Even with only twenty lands, flashing back your three- and four-cost spells does come up from time to time.
Instead of a round-by-round analysis of the event, I want to share something that will hopefully help everyone else as much as it helped me. No matter your finish in any big event, it is important to analyze your play so you can improve and get better. Here are my take-aways from the event.
1. Modern Is Truly Diverse
Wizards has relentlessly patrolled the format for strategies dominating to an unacceptable level. They want an eternal format where diversity is number one. Take a look at my personal data on the subject as well as the full metagame breakdown. If you like stats, you are in for a treat.
My Results for Day One
1 - Bye
2 - Bye
3 - G/R Tron (Loss)
4 - Boros Burn (Win)
5 - Affinity (Win)
6 - Twin (Win)
7 - Melira Pod (Loss)
8 - Kiki Pod (Win)
9 - Living End
From my results you can see I played a different deck every round of Day One. The two Pod decks are the closest I came to playing the same deck twice, but despite sharing some cards, they play out quite differently.
Wow that is a lot of different decks! Even if you start grouping them by similarities, you will still have more diversity than you know what to do with.
Even though the eventual top eight would contain mostly decks resembling the stereotypical Modern Jund deck, the field was the most diverse of any event I’ve ever played in. If you are not prepared to face any deck, you will find yourself falling short in Modern.
My suggestion for succeeding in Modern, or Legacy for that matter, is to play as many different formats as you can. The reason I say that is because familiarity with different decks and archetypes will help tremendously in Modern. Even if you are not exactly sure what deck or specific cards your opponent is playing, you can lean on your prior experiences to make the best play.
2. Make Better Decisions
Throughout the course of the event, as you might imagine, I mulliganed many times. One thought occurred to me that I had never considered. It is possible I am mulliganning too aggressively.
Especially in game two situations, I will throw back a perfectly acceptable hand if I think it cannot defeat the deck I am playing against. On the one hand, if I know I cannot win with my present hand, it seems logical to go to six and see if I can find a hand that will win. Simultaneously, if that is my attitude, I could be putting myself into situations where I am mulliganing the game away.
There were two specific instances at the GP where after the game was over, I reconsidered my mulligan and found it too aggressive. Both were in game three situations against Melira Pod and both resulted in me not being able to interact with my opponent much as they defeated me.
Analyze the hands you mulligan. It is possible you are not mulliganing enough or you are doing it to frequently. This part of the game is one of the most challenging aspects of Magic. Continually try to improve this part of your game.
The second part to making better decisions is paying attention to the board state. This may seem obvious, but in the heat of the game, sometimes we get caught up in our own thing rather than closely examining what our opponents are doing.
Certainly there were many times where I could have made a better play, but only one sticks out in my mind. The first round of day two, I played against Merfolk. This is not a deck I respect or expect to see on day two of a Grand Prix so to say I was surprised would be a vast understatement.
This matchup seems swingy. That is the only word I can think of to describe how one-sided two of our three games were. The third game was going the same way but even though my opponent had a dominant board position, I saw the light at the end of the tunnel. But as I grasped for it, I poked myself in the eye.
I was at two life with a Dark Confidant in play facing down two merfolk. I knew I needed to bounce my card drawing machine with Cryptic Command so it wouldn't kill me, but I wasn't sure what the other mode would be.
For some reason, I got it into my head that I was going to counter whatever my opponent played. So, even though he only played an Aether Vial, I still chose to counter it. The problem was that it left me dead on board to his creature I could not block.
There is no way to say that I would have won the game, but I did not have to lose there. All I needed to do was tap his creatures and bounce my Dark Confidant.
3. The Little Things Matter
No matter what deck you are playing, make sure you understand your role in each matchup. When appropriate, switch roles. The ability to do this successfully will help you tremendously, especially in Modern.
Modern is all about dealing damage to yourself through your lands. Managing how much damage you take and which lands you fetch is an essential skill.
Don't concede, play to your outs. Every card and every deck is so powerful in Modern that even in the most dire of board states, there is likely a card you could draw to win the game. Maybe you will need to rely on drawing a specific series of cards to win the game, but whatever the situation, figure out what you need to draw to win the game and play accordingly.
Modern is a great format with tons of amazingly powerful cards. If in some small way, what I learned has helped you, leave me a message below. If you have questions about the deck, I'd be happy to answer them. Good luck with your Modern adventures and I'll be back next week with some sweet Theros Standard brews.
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I’ve mentioned in past articles that besides finance, my main interest in Magic is Limited play, particularly drafting. There’s something about the mix of strategic, creative, adaptive, and random elements that make Limited play more interesting and enriching to me than other formats. Magic is fun in nearly all its forms, but I’ve found my preference and I mostly stick to it.
A few years ago, before I rejoined the Magic community after a many-year hiatus, I was primarily a console gamer. I played a lot of games, but I did so at little to no cost through research, diligent deal-hunting, and arbitrage of sorts. When I started playing Magic again, I was distressed to find that I would have to shell out actual cash for gaming. But before long I discovered the wide world of MTG finance, and realized there might be another way.
Nowadays I like to think I’m a relatively shrewd trader and speculator. I still have a lot to learn—don’t we all?—but I’m working hard to consistently level up my perceptiveness and abilities. Still, I need to be realistic about my goals. I work a full-time job not related to MTG, so I’m not trying to make a living off the game. I’m just trying to play for free, or as close to free as possible (not that I am opposed to turning a profit, mind you).
Getting to the Point
With all of the above in mind, today I’m going to introduce a project on which I will be working for the foreseeable future. The guidelines are as follows:
1. I will draft (or play sealed, when available) at least once a week at one of the three LGSs in my town.
2. To maintain the purity of the project, I will keep all cards/money/swag involved separate from my personal collection.
3. I will track everything: money spent, trades made, bulk accrued, cards sold, decklists, etc.
4. I’m tentatively planning to end the project upon the release of M15. I reserve the right to extend it through rotation if there is still good content to be had, or to end it early if I find I could provide more value writing on other topics.
5. My goal is to draft for free. At the end of the series, I’ll weigh all of my expenditures versus the amount of cash and cards (valued at top buylist price on mtg.gg) I’m holding when the series concludes.
I will consider the project a mild success if I can keep the cost of my drafts under $5 each. (The least expensive draft available in my town costs $12, so I’m looking to cut my draft costs to less than half the list price.) Anything over $5 per draft will be considered a failure. But the real goal is to spend nothing per draft, or even to turn a profit. For the series to be considered a SUCCESS with no qualifier, I need to hit that $0-per-draft mark.
I’ve never tracked things this closely before now, so I have a limited frame of reference to know how difficult this will be. Based on my memory of full-block Return to Ravnica draft, I think I can do it. For that format, I played in two prereleases, won some prizes in each, and managed to draft at least once a week with those and subsequent winnings through the release of M14. I didn’t track the cards I opened during those events, but I like to think that roughly a dozen drafts and two sealed pools left me with more value than the price of the two prerelease events.
The scale of this project is going to appeal more to financially-minded players than hardcore speculators. Given that my trade stock will be accrued slowly through Limited play, the deepest I’ll likely be able to go on any particular card will be a couple dozen copies at most. Another factor specific to players is that my success or failure in this project will be based on a mix of not only trading and speculating, but also on winning prizes. For professional retailers and investors, winnings aren’t really a consideration when calculating profits, but it’s a crucial element for those focused on playing as well as finance.
I know that Insiders subscribe to the site for financial information and not strategy. Although I’ll occasionally be sharing decklists, discussing interesting picks, and recapping exciting game moments, I’ll be keeping the series primarily focused on the financial aspect of being a dedicated drafter. When appropriate, I’ll also still be commenting on specs, formats, and shakeups outside the boundaries of the series. I’m not trying to work outside the niche this site serves, but I am trying to approach it from a new angle.
Options
At this point I’d like to briefly go through the pros and cons of the draft options available in my town:
Monday:
On Monday nights there is a comic shop in town that has unsanctioned $14 Swiss drafts with one pack per player (or, if the set is in high demand, one pack per three players) in the prize pool. These drafts attract anywhere from six to twelve players. The shop does not allow pack-ins and the prize payout is extremely flat. The atmosphere is very casual, so it’s a great place to trade EDH cards into Standard staples. However, the poor prize payouts, lack of ability to use packs or store credit for entry, and the driving distance (which is further than other options) make this the least attractive option during the week.
Tuesday:
My regular LGS offers $12 eight-man single-elimination drafts with a 5/3 payout for first and second place, although players almost always split. The shop does accept pack-ins for drafting, which is one of the reasons it’s my favorite place to play. The environment is also the most competitive in town and often multiple drafts fire in an evening. The only downside is that many attendees aren't really interested in trading on Tuesday nights.
Friday:
The Tuesday-night shop also has FNM drafts, which are basically the same deal except you can’t pack in to these. The upside is that there is a parallel Standard FNM and between the two events, there are plenty of trading partners.
A third LGS offers a second option on Friday night. This shop offers $15 Swiss drafts with one pack per player in the prize pool and payouts down to either fourth or eighth place, based on attendance. The shop does not accept pack-ins, but you can save your winnings in their system and use those for future entries. The $15 price is the most expensive in town, but the shop has a stamp card that gets you a free draft for every five you enter, which makes the higher price easier to swallow. The atmosphere at this shop leans toward casual, but there are a few strong players that frequent these drafts. Only about half the players in a given draft have or bring a binder, so trading is hit and miss.
Strategizing
Given these options, I’ll do most of my drafting on Tuesday nights. Sometimes I may decide I want a longer experience or a chance for a bigger payout, and on those occasions I’ll go play the Swiss draft on Friday night. The Monday-night drafts are really only appealing as a change of pace and are something in which I'll rarely participate.
At $12 each, I can do eight drafts for $96. Conveniently, the pre-order price for a box of Theros is $90, which after tax comes to $96 and change. There are nine draft sets in a box, so by pre-ordering one, I could get a draft for free. Every time I squeeze an extra draft out of my expenditures, the more I increase my odds of making this project a success. So I’m clearly buying a box for drafting purposes.
Unfortunately, there’s not really a prerelease with a high upside in my town. There are two options: a $30 Swiss tournament with an extremely flat payout (i.e. two packs per player in the prize pool, but every player gets at least one pack at the end) and a $25 four-round tournament that awards ten packs for 4-0, with lesser payouts down to 2-2. With past releases, there has been an option for a Swiss with cut to top eight and more top-heavy prize support. With the last few sets, however, the shops here have aimed toward appealing to the casual player by flattening payouts.
This definitely makes the goal of this project harder. Winning 24 packs or more at a prerelease (not unreasonable when prizes are kept mainly in the top eight or sixteen) would set me up for more than a month of drafting. But as is, the max I can win from a $25 entry fee is ten packs. This is a pretty low upside when I'm trying to start a slow bleed that will last for over a month, but it's what I have available.
Nonetheless, I’m looking forward to all the drafting I’ll get to enjoy in this project. And one of my not-so-secret shames is that I love record keeping, so I'm even looking forward to all the note taking I'll have to do. Join me next week when I recap my prerelease experience and have had a chance to see Theros cards in action. If you have tips, observations, or questions, let me know in the comment section.
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Did you catch any of the video coverage from the Grand Prix over the weekend? Of course not.
On Balls That Were Dropped
Being from Michigan, the TO of my local events has always been PES (Professional Events Services). PES isn't great, but having been to other events run by other TOs, it may be the case that PES is the worst TO except for every single other TO. My last few years going to nearly every North American GP has given me a new appreciation for PES and how they do business. I haven't forgiven those ballbags for giving The Godslayer and me 34 packs for Top 4 of a 2HG PTQ and not just rounding up to 36 so we could sell the sealed box, but that doesn't mean I'm not glad they do some things well.
PES got a lot of flak this weekend for stuff that wasn't their fault.
Apparently being 100% sure that multiple people told you a lie is compelling evidence
If you can't tell the difference between one of the 15 vendors around the floor who were free to buy and sell mats and the TO, maybe you should stay home and stick to a game like MODO which untaps your lands for you. I'm not going to stump for PES or anything, but, come on. If you want to be upset for something they did a terrible job at, feel free. You'll find something to be upset about and you won't even have to look that hard. But don't run your mouth off without getting the facts. PES was never going to be responsible for coverage at GP Detroit. It's not the TO's purview.
Well, if this is not the fault of the TO, who is to blame?
I thought Wizards should have done more to cover the event, and when I saw Helene Bergeot in the hall I marched right up to her and gave her a piece of my mind. The conversation went a little something like this.
Me: Hello, Helene. Nice to see you again. Where have you been hiding all weekend?
Helene: Hello Jason. Everyone keeps asking me why I was hiding! We were at a conference all weekend with all of the TOs to talk about the events for the next year.
Me: Oh, I hope that wasn't too boring.
She was being evasive, dodging the issue of coverage. I wasn't about to let her off the hook that easily.
Me: So attendance here is pretty good, huh?
Helene: Yes, we didn't expect to get so many people. This is a very nice city. Did you play in the main event?
Perfect. I had her on the ropes. Time to go in for the kill.
Me: No, I'm just doing a little trading and selling. We're looking to have a lot more content on BrainstormBrewery.com and I'm here talking to people about writing for us, maybe getting R.K. Post to design a token.
Helene: That sounds exciting. Did you travel far to get here?
Me: No, it was only a few hours.
-They announce my side event is about to start-
Me: Well, that's me. I better take off. It was nice seeing you.
Helene: You, too. Good luck!
BOOM ladies and gentlemen. That's how you do the kind of hard-hitting investigative journalism that wins Pulitzers. You skewer your subject and you don't let them get away until they answer the tough questions.
Yeah, maybe this makes me a gigantic wuss, but honestly, considering I didn't even give her grief on twitter, the odds of me giving her grief in person were next to nothing. Besides, I'm not entirely convinced Wizards is to blame for opting not to have video coverage for the event.
Who Did It Wrong And What I Did About It
Adam Styborski is a busy guy. He works a full-time job, has a young child and writes for MagictheGathering.com on top of editing dozens of submissions for GatheringMagic.com. When I heard he was going to be in charge of the text coverage for GP Detroit, I thought "Wow, they're going to have the killer text coverage from Adam on top of the video coverage? Wizards must really want to make Modern a popular format!" I thought this because I am incredibly naive sometimes.
In reality, they hired Adam to do some killer text coverage because they simply did not budget for video coverage at GP Detroit.
They didn't expect attendance to flirt with 1,400. In fact, it wasn't projected to exceed the 1,200 player cap that triggers the "39 point rule" as it's being called.
Do you want to know why WotC didn't think that many people would go to GP Detroit? Because they listened to the community. They saw crap like this passed around on facebook.
Oh, I get it. Because of all the murders
They saw a post on reddit (since taken down) where a player said he wasn't going to the GP because his family told him he'd be mugged or shot if he went near Detroit.
True. Actual. Story.
Never mind the fact that Cobo Hall is in the middle of the business district of Detroit, flanked on one side by a four-star hotel and on the other by Joe Louis arena, a concert and sports venue and home of the Detroit Red Wings. Sure, that close to all the banks and the hockey arena you might have your pension stolen or your jersey pulled over your head, but you're not likely to get shot. Our hotel was 12 block away, across from a liquor store and I walked to Cobo and back and didn't feel unsafe.
Never mind that the neighborhood where they held the last GP Atlanta was two blocks away from a large group of homeless dudes drinking out of paper bags and playing dice in the street and our hotel, again, two blocks from the venue, had a four-foot iron fence around the parking lot and an armed guard 24/7. Never mind that GP Baltimore was only a few blocks away from a notoriously bad part of that city where people who work at Johns Hopkins won't park on the back side of the hospital because every time they do their cars are broken into. Nope, let's make all the crime jokes about Detroit because Robocop.
So what we have is a situation where Wizards has a finite budget for event coverage and they strategically chose not to cover Detroit. Not because it was Modern and they don't care about Modern, but because you people said you weren't going to go.
Wizards didn't drop the ball. We did.
The Coverage That Was
Let's ignore the fact that Wizards did text coverage--high quality and largely ignored, much to the chagrin of Styborski fans. If Wizards didn't do any video coverage, who did?
The internet was full of whining this morning about no coverage, but there was a lot more coverage than people realized, they just didn't bother to look.
Brian Kibler, perennial smartass, did his own "bootleg event coverage" in his hotel room with a smartphone. check out the deck tech.
Speaking of deck techs, Inside the Deck managed an insanely-fast turnaround time to get the video edited and up on Gathering Magic within a day and they even interviewed Brainstorm Brewery team member Jeff Hoogland about his U/R Fairies deck when Jeff was 5-0 on day one. Rich managed to find quite a few interesting decks that were more entertaining to me than the parade of Deathrite Shaman decks that made up the Top 8.
There was all kind of coverage, not to mention finance tidbits being tweeted from the floor. Did you catch Nick Becvar's tweet about Hallowed Burial going up? Because Hallowed Burial doubled over the weekend.
So I guess if you managed to ignore all of that, I can see why you might have the opinion that there was "no coverage." It's perfectly understandable for you to be upset that there was no video coverage for you to watch. I just want you to understand that having that attitude is like starving to death in the middle of an all-you-can-eat buffet because no one came over to put the food into your mouth and work your jaw for you.
A Sad Note
I received some bad news via Facebook this morning.
Steve was a dedicated grinder and family man, and back in May he managed to win the SCG Open in Charlotte. I didn't know him well, but it's always sobering when this community loses one of our own and my thoughts are with his young son and his fiancee.
It's a lot of fun that this game affords so many of us the opportunity to travel, but remember to be careful out there. Don't let your friends drive drunk and take every opportunity you have at events to spend time with as many of the friends you've made in this community as you can.
What Happened in Detroit
There was a Grand Prix, and you're going to absolutely love the diversity in the Top 8.
First of all, before I get into coverage at all I would like to have a moment of silence. Local Kalamazoo player and member of Team Perfect Storm, Tristan Woodsmith had the hilarious misfortune of getting 9th on breakers. 9th Feels bad. 9th with the exact same record as 7th and 8th feels worse. Sorry about your luck, Tristan. I hope qualifying for the PT on PW points as a result of finishing 9th is a nice consolation prize.
The Top 8 could not be less diverse, considering the most-played deck in the room appeared to be Tron variants and a whopping zero made the Top 8. Even more worrying, six of the Top 8 decks were essentially the same deck. G/B rock is a Jund deck with a little less red. So we had a Monty Python sketch for a Top 8.
Player 1: What kind of Top 8 should we have?
Player 2: I'm going to have a Top 8 with Jund, Tron, Pod, Naya, Fish, Fairies, Affinity and Zoo.
Player 1: That's got jund in it!
Player 3: Surely not as much Jund as a Top 8 with just Jund in it.
Player 1: I don't want ANY Jund decks!
Player 3: Fish is weak to Deathrite Shaman.
Player 2: How about Jund, Jund, Tron, Pod, Naya, Affinity, Fairies and Zoo?
Player 3: Wild Nacatl got banned.
Player 2: Right, so no zoo. Why not Jund instead?
Player 3: Naya didn't make the Top 8 either.
Player 2: Jund it is, then.
Player 3: No fairies, either. It really struggled against the white splash, can't beat Lingering Souls.
Player 1: "White Splash?" That sounds nice. What's that?
Player 2: That is a jund deck splashing white for lingering souls and/or Ajani Vengeant.
Player 1: Can't we just have a deck with Lingering Souls and Ajani without the Jund?
Player 3: Uggggh!
Player 1: What do you mean "Ugggh?" I don't like Jund!
Player 2: Right, so with the substitutions we're having Jund, Jund, Jund, Jund, Pod, Jund, Affinity and Jund
Player 1: I would like to register a complaint
Player 3: Wrong sketch
There isn't a ton to talk about. People assumed the rush to publish the Banned and Restricted list a little early was to rush out a banning of Deathrite Shaman, or, even more ridiculously, Tarmogoyf. If you think about it for more than a millisecond it makes zero sense. They want to snap-ban something oppressive the night a GP ends so they rush to get the B&R out early giving them less time to debate the merits of such a decision? That made sense to people?
Nothing got banned in real formats (yes, I don't consider Pauper a real format) and that means the metagame will continue to diversify. That is to say, the kinds of Jund decks people are going to play will continue to get more diverse.
After Reuben Bresler rocked people like a hurricane using Chandra, Pyromaster in Legacy Painted Stone I said to watch Chandra. The amount of people wishing they'd played more of her in Modern Jund only solidifies this as a card to watch.
While Jace, Architect of Thought is creeping up due to buyouts from speculators, Chandra, Pyromaster is creeping up less quickly from her historic low of $12.50. I think she could see $20+ again, but I don't know if I want to buy in around $15. Still, you save $20 on a playset if you want them to play with and didn't buy them at $12.50. If it hits $25, they'll still be $21 on TCG Player netting me like $4 a copy, so with that as my out I'm not super jazzed about buying in now. I think these will trade super well, so if that is your planned out, buy at TCG and trade at SCG and you should have a good time.
Hallowed Burial doubled over the weekend. If you can still snag cheap copies, you might want to get on that. I have a $5 copy or two in my display case at the store where I sell singles and I know I won't get out there until Thursday to pull it out, but, if the $7 Shardless Agent that sat in there for two months is any indication, it will be safe for another few days.
Sometimes I just can't even give away value, and the Desecration Demons I pulled out of the dollar box to sell on TCG Player for $5 are a great example of that. Not every store is going to look up Burial on SCG when you ask for it, so if you find a store like that, go back every time a card spikes.
Despite being an overwhelming 75% of the top 8, Deathrite Shaman decks lost out to Melira-Pod, which makes me smile. Pod may start to run Archangel of Thune more often, but don't expect one copy in one deck to maintain its current high price. That is almost entirely due to casual appeal. Sublime Archangel commanded a similar price for much of its time in Standard and that saw even less play. Not much opportunity here, unless you bust boosters.
All in all, Modern is a pretty lame format. There is a lot of diversity at the bottom and people battle it out with pet decks, but unlike Legacy, sideboards aren't enough to shore up bad matches and oppressive cards like Thoughtseize and Deathrite Shaman mean that there always will be a consensus "best deck" to play (Jund variants.)
You can play a pet deck, you can even win a GP with it provided it's as unfair as pod, but you can't hope to even compete if you can't win the three or four matches you're going to play against Jund. Welcome to Standard circa 2009.
Astonishingly, there were 37 different archetypes played at the start of Day 2. 37 became four awfully fast. If you want to play Modern, be able to beat Jund or join it.
SCG Atlanta
I half expected to see an Atlanta metagame that was equally lousy with Top 8 Jund decks in Standard and was delighted to be proven wrong.
Naya took it down, piloted by Rudy Briksza. While the deck will lose a lot, with all of Theros spoiled we already know there are quite a few one-for-one replacements slated to plug holes left by rotation. With a new dragon, a new Searing Spear, and Elvish Mystic, the deck loses some of its mana fixing and may not be able to carry on without a replacement for Bonfire, but I'm sure people will try. Expect people to lean on Domri Rade even more than they do now.
Desecration Demon is going to be everywhere. There was a lot of dissent in the QS forums when this card was discussed and it was compared to a lot of bad cards that weren't applicable. Folks, speculation is less about your individual perception of a card and more about how the metagame as a whole embraces the card.
If tomorrow everyone decided that Aquus Steed needed to be a four-of in blue control decks, are you going to argue about how bad a card Aquus Steed is? If you see the metagame go in a certain direction, you just buy the cards and sell into hype. The Vizkopa Guildmage/Exquisite Blood deck never even got built. That didn't stop me from buying Exquisite Blood at $0.50 and selling them for $3.
You can argue about how a card is bad. You can even argue that the metagame trending toward it means they're making a mistake. You could even be right. But there's no money in being right if you don't buy Desecration Demon at $1.50 and selling them at the absurd $8 they are today. Let this card be a lesson.
Lifebane Zombie is another card that's way up. Seeing a card that's $12 on Star City and $6 TCG Low makes me laugh until I remember my Lifebane Zombies are going to sell for $6 if I list them. You say you hate trading at Star City prices? I sure don't! I love when I can trade a $6 Lifebane Zombie that's $12 on SCG for a $10.50 Overgrown Tomb that's $12 on SCG. If they are going to put pretend double prices on cards, the least you can do is punish the people who want to trade at those prices.
U/W and U/W/R Flash are losing 100% of their creature base. The days of a midrange deck with a lot of countermagic and card drawing are over. Expect these color combinations to get more control-oriented. The spread on Detention Sphere is practically non-existent. Dealers want them, you should pay attention to that. Supreme Verdict is another card to target heavily.
Most of the archetypes in the Top 16 in Atlanta are going away. Monored is going to actually get stronger, and I think with aggressive decks wanting to be able to smooth bad draws by using the new Theros scry lands, Burning Earth in Monored got a lot better. A replacement for Searing Spear and the newfound popularity of Chandra all point toward Chandra's Phoenix being a potential all-star and Magma Jet doesn't hurt at all. Phoenix is currently worth nothing and I think there is a lot of upside here, especially with a new dragon as a possible inclusion.
Burn got 3rd?! Smiling might jesus that's a laugh. I love when a $30 deck nearly wins a Legacy tourney. Anyone who complains that Legacy is too expensive and doesn't have a copy of this deck built is just making excuses not to have fun. Why not spend $30 and build this deck to lend to people? It's no biggie if it gets swiped, it doesn't tie up your resources keeping it built and it could be the "first taste is free" gateway deck that makes someone a dedicated Legacy player. Sure this deck is harder to play than it looks, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be the Pet deck of the week winner. The sideboard just screams "my only bad matchups are Show and Tell and Deathrite decks".
Merfolk in the Top 8 and no Goblins to be found? I don't know why I decided that their performance relative to each other was noteworthy, but I've been doing it for months and no one has sent an angry e-mail or told me I'm fired so I'll keep it up. Besides, everyone knows that when Merfolk makes a Top 8, a Buffalo Wild Wings waitress in Oklahoma gets an 18% tip.
I think it's great that Shardless BUG is making me so much money. All those $20 Chaos Reigns and Night of the Ninja decks I snagged from Target over the course of months and months looks like a smart investment. With the previously-underwhelming G/W Planechase decks now yielding a Kor Spiritdancer, it looks like all of them are a good investment. When the next Planechase and Commander decks come out, buy a bunch. You practically can't lose.
Legacy is a pretty nuanced format when you look at which decks tend to do better regionally. Geography plays a much greater role in the metagame for Legacy and Vintage than anyone really knows. If there were a way to track that information, you'd have a good shot at optimizing your sideboard based on where the SCG Open is.
I realize that using sabermetrics on a children's card game seems like overkill, but there are cash prizes on the line and if you know that Atlanta won't have a ton of Blade decks at the top tables, you can board better. Only one Blade deck and at 9th place no less seems to be geographical more than anything. That or all the best Blade players were at the GP. Either way, it feels wrong to me and I bet we see more next week.
Conversely, Delver is everywhere. Not much financial opportunity in that, either. Just be aware. I don't know why people weren't playing Grim Lavamancer all along, but it murders Delvers and Deathrites and probably had a lot to do with the success of the burn deck. Punishing Fire is a good choice now as well. Grove probably can't go up again, but maybe pimp versions of Punishing Fire like the ones in the Knights vs. Dragons decks are rare enough to see a bump. But don't ask me. I still play Punishing Maverick.
Show and Tell doesn't look like it's going anywhere. With Wizards saying they are no longer printing cards with Legacy specifically in mind, don't expect a hoser any time soon. We're going to have to innovate a way to beat the unfair decks. If we're not willing to develop decks in the metagame that can beat all the various unfair things Show and Tell decks can do, we can't really say that Wizards dropped the ball.
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Welcome back speculators. Hopefully you enjoyed my previous article covering the first half of my current speculation targets. Just like before I am going to list the quantity of each card to help emphasize how confident I am of the spec.
12x Ancestral Vision
I bought these when the BUG Cascade deck first showed up (I got 24 copies at the time). I have since sold eight of them at 8.50 each...I bought them between $2.50-$3.25 each. This card has seen a couple printings (mainly Time Spiral and Jace vs. Chandra). It is currently banned in Modern, though if that were to change, expect this card to double in price as all the control players pick up their four copies.
It is an incredible source of card advantage (especially off of cascade), giving Legacy BUG players an Ancestral Recall at times. While the price has already more than doubled from its low, it's not a terrible pickup currently. The fact that it has suspend means its likelihood of being reprinted in a non-specialty set is highly unlikely. I will still trade for these if I can get a good price on them as I don't see it going anywhere but up.
1x Garruk Relentless
This guy has already seen some play in Modern/Legacy decks and has the ability to remove a utility threat like Stoneforge Mystic or Dark Confidant and stick around to make deathtouch wolves. It's a flip card, so the likelihood of reprint is very low (as that would require WoTC to print checklist cards again).
Currently these guys are sitting close to $5.50 which I think is close to the floor and when I start seeing these filling up binders of Standard-only players, I will be picking them up. The fact that he's a planeswalker means that there will always be demand from the planeswalker collectors too.
9x Lotus Cobra
This Standard all-star was the most hyped card from Zendikar (even more so than the fetchlands). He allows decks like Mythic Conscription to decimate opponents very quickly. The beauty is that he can add more than one mana on a given turn (using a fetchland or some other way to hit landfall repeatedly), doesn't tap to do so, and can add mana of any color. His two power also proves relevant as it means he can add mana and attack in the same turn. I feel like he may find a home in Modern, given the plethora of fetchlands used.
1x Geist of Saint Traft
I actually own five of these, but four are my personal playset. I feel like Geist is an excellent target as he's already shown up in Legacy and Modern decks. He is difficult to kill and the decks that play him make him even more so. Hexproof has proven itself one of the more lopsided mechanics WoTC has released recently.
I am planning on picking more up as they continue their downward trend with upcoming rotation, but I believe that, like Liliana of the Veil and Snapcaster Mage, the floor isn't that far from the current price. He is also a solid EDH general for very competitive one-vs.-one decks. I would be comfortable buying them in the $10-$12 range and trading for them at their current price seems like a fine mid-to-long-term decision.
11x Lotleth Troll
Many players expected Lotleth Troll to create a whole new Standard archetype. Unfortunately the deck didn't really pan out as the synergy between Lotleth Troll and Gravecrawler was good, but the deck lacked any sort of real endgame and the green was almost exclusively for Lotleth Troll. Eventually the tides shifted to a U/B Zombies deck which left Lotleth homeless.
That being said, he's still a very powerful creature and his mana cost is low enough that he may eventually find a home in Modern (or even Legacy). He plays quite well with the scavenge mechanic and I can see him fitting in the new G/B decks looking to become tier 1 after rotation.
5x Crypt Ghast
This card has proven a casual favorite in Standard and fits quite well in EDH. Its biggest detractor is the fact that the extort cost is W/B thus preventing him from fitting into Mono-Black EDH decks. I still feel that any Junk-colored decks would be happy to play him as long as they are heavy in black...or play Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. I feel this could be one of those casual sleeper cards that stays cheap it's entire life in Standard (like Vorinclex) and then jumps dramatically when people two years from now realize it exists.
16x Detention Sphere
This has already shown up in Legacy Miracles builds as an Oblivion Ring that can be pitched to Force of Will. With M14 lacking Oblivion Ring it will likely take over as the removal of choice for U/W/x Standard decks as well. I can see this as a $4-5 utility card in the upcoming Standard metagame, so get them while you can.
The fact that Theros is an enchantment block is both a boon and a bane for this card. It means that it will fit well with any cards that are based on number of enchantments (Sphere of Safety) but also means that WoTC will likely make sure there is plenty of enchantment removal available in the format.
18x Prime Speaker Zegana
If you hadn't noticed yet, I tend to look for cards that had a lot of hype at release and plummeted since then. The reason for this is quite simple; the logic behind why these cards were awesome in the first place is usually pretty sound.
Many times they don't pan out because other ideas come along that trump them, but when the format rotates, people will jump back to whatever looks like it might work and there's a lot of potential for strong profits in mythics like this one. I would heavily recommend foil copies as they are still pretty cheap and will be highly desired by EDH players in the next few years (I currently have one).
7x Blood Baron of Vizkopa
I believe (along with many others) that this guy hasn't had his time to shine due principally to Thragtusk. His protection colors keep him safe from a vast majority of the removal in the new format (with the big exception of Mizzium Mortars). His lifelink ability proves useful, though I have yet to get him into range of his second ability. I expect him to be one of the finishers of choice in the new Standard.
5x Deathrite Shaman
I would have more, but I was able to trade out several playsets when they hit $15-16 each way back when. I am still a firm believer in this card, though his current price has kept me from going much deeper. These five were all parts of larger trades.
9x Abrupt Decay
This is still one of the premier removal spells of choice in Legacy and I expect it will be in Modern as well. The only thing holding it back is its regular rarity in a set that was (and still is) heavily opened. I got most of these in the $4-5 range and while it may take awhile, I expect them to reach the $10 range within 1-2 years.
16x Jace, Architect of Thought
These guys proved to be powerful during Block and I expect they'll get even better as Standard slows down with the rotation of Innistrad block and M13. He serves as a solid source of card advantage and can semi-fog token or small creature aggro decks with his plus ability. I got these all in the $10 range so I will feel pretty good if they break $14.
Zendikar Fetchlands
21x Misty Rainforest (4 foils)
20x Scalding Tarn (4 foils)
25x Marsh Flats
16x Arid Mesa
16x Verdant Catacombs
I lumped all the Zendikar fetchlands together. I had an amazing opportunity with a group of friends who don't have time for MTG anymore and purchased all of their Zendikar fetchlands at around 60-75% of the TCG low price.
I am only planning on holding them until this upcoming Modern season as I feel they are safe from any mass reprint until after RTR block rotates out. I'm expecting another 20-25% growth (conservatively) and feel I can make quite a solid amount of money. The foils I got at $110 per and I expect $180-200 per for a very solid ROI.
Shocklands
18x Overgrown Tomb
15x Blood Crypt
22x Hallowed Fountain
26x Watery Grave
26x Breeding Pool
5x Sacred Foundry
4x Stomping Ground
24x Steam Vents
11x Godless Shrine
18x Temple Garden
I lumped all of the new shocklands together as well. With the spoilers from Theros showing bad duals for Standard, the demand for certain shocks should go up. I expected the demand to increase due to Modern season as well, but after looking over a lot of Modern decklists, most tri-color-plus decks only run 2-3 of any given shock but the full complement of fetches.
Bonus
Taken from QS's Kyle Lopez's speculation targets I will mark up my thoughts (in italics) as to why I believe he targeted them, but I will include my own opinions as well. I have deleted spec targets that we share.
Return to Ravnica Block
4x Boros Reckoner -- I assume you believe Reckoner will become even more brutal in the new Standard as many solid removal spells leave us. I agree that he shows a lot of promise as the new Standard begins, especially since a lot of people expect Mono-Red aggro to start off as top dog and he brick-walls that deck quite well--and can even be played by it. I don't disagree with your logic, however my concern is that I don't see him rising much more in price. He's not a multi-format all-star (like Snapcaster Mage). He can currently be picked up around $10, and I don't see his ceiling much higher than $13-15.
2x Slaughter Games -- I believe this effect is often overvalued because while it can cripple some decks (usually when you name Sphinx's Revelation against Standard control decks), it doesn't affect the board state. It's a great mid-range "trump" card against control decks, but it and its main target (the aforementioned Sphinx's Revelation) have been legal for over a year now and Slaughter Games has been dropped from many sideboards as it doesn't do enough.
That being said, the risk is quite minimal as the buy in price is probably around 25-50 cents. This is hard to argue with, as even if it shows up in a few sideboards it could jump back to the $1-$1.50 range. I haven't purchased extras of these, but that's because my money is tied up in other specs, but I don't blame you for picking these up (especially if they were throw-ins).
3x Rakdos's Return -- I like this as a spec myself, but haven't picked up any extras. The effect is quite powerful and can be devastating, but is best in a control or mid-range deck. The new Standard will likely be a lot of mono- or dual-colored aggro decks at first and this card won't have a home for a while. The death of Jund with rotation will also drop its price in the near term. This style is also not super popular among casual players, so you won't get assistance from that crowd.
14x Burning-Tree Emissary -- In an aggro-centric Standard, I do think this card will prove to be an all-star. My biggest issue is that Standard-only uncommons tend to peak in price around $1.50-$2.00 which if you got them really cheap is a solid profit margin, but selling them outside of a buylist or to players who desperately need them before an FNM will be difficult.
Innistrad Block
4x Sorin, Lord of Innistrad -- Planeswalkers will always be popular with the casual players, and while I don't think Sorin will find a home in Modern/Legacy, he is near his lowest price and post-rotation I will pick up a few for the long term. He could have a trajectory similar to Sarkhan Vol (though likely less as impressive given his printing in the duel decks).
6x Champion of the Parish (this ones gonna hurt) -- Welcome to the club. I picked up four foil ones at $6 because someone had previously told me he wanted them. He got them before I reached him and they've been rotting in my binder. Sadly, this guy had quite a good time in Standard, but will likely not make it in Modern (and has really no chance in Legacy) and isn't powerful enough for most EDH players.
2x Bonfire of the Damned -- I have heard of Bonfire making a showing in a few Modern sideboards, but honestly, the effect just isn't powerful enough for older formats. When the creature of choice for Legacy/Modern is often a 3/4 or 4/5 for two mana, getting enough mana to actually boardwipe with Bonfire is difficult enough when miracled, let alone if it's already in your hand.
4x Falkenrath Aristocrat -- I unloaded these a while back when they were $15 each (I sadly missed my shot at unloading at $20).
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Welcome back readers! One of the first things you might notice is the title... 201, you ask, when did you publish 101?
The short answer is I didn't. But as you're a paying member of a website devoted to making you money off of Magic via good speculation, thus 101 was joining this site and reading the forums. So you passed that course already, but now we'll delve a little deeper into the concept of speculating.
Speculating on goods has been around for a long time. In ancient times people would store food when they were concerned about future weather or crop yields in order to 1) eat later and b) sell later for a higher profit to the people who didn't store up food. The simple concept of using the resources at your disposal to make larger gains in the future by postponing current profit is the essence of speculating.
Not only do you get the future reward when you're correct that the items you bought at a low price are now worth more, but also a feeling of accomplishment that you followed your intuition and it paid off. (But hey, you already knew that; consider it the refresher.)
Profit to Effort Ratio (P:E)
Since everyone's goal here is to turn a profit (whether to create enough wealth to give up your existing job or simply to play a game you love for free), we need to first determine our profit-to-effort ratio.
One way to think of this is as dollars per hour (as anyone who works hourly can tell you, it's a pretty simple concept). Another could be rate of return per month, quarter or year. Personally, I use dollars per hour because it's such an easy concept and I haven't been tracking my spec targets as carefully as I could.
An Example
Billy buys 60 copies of a card at $1. He waits two months and the card doubles to $2. (Good Job Billy!)
But what does he do now? He has lots of options.
Sell them on eBay for $8 a play set (losing $0.80 in fees). He'll make $7.20 per play set or a net profit of 80 cents per card. Let's assume he sells one play set a day, it takes 10 minutes to put up the auctions, and 15 days to sell them all. His total profit (after subtracting initial investment) is $48.
He could sell them all to a dealer's buylist at $1.50. He'll make $30 profit but he'll do so in a matter of minutes (we'll say five) rather than 15 days.
He could trade them into more valuable cards that he needs for tournaments, but he'll probably lose a bit of value trading up (let's say he trades all of them for a play set of a $26 card). His profit is actually -$60 until he sells the cards he traded for, but he could look at it as a discount on his $26 cards and still feel like he "made" $44. This might take a couple hours of searching for a trade partner and trading.
He could trade them for 30 cards that buylist for $3.25. He'd have to first find these cards, and then trade them at a 2:1 ratio until he had 30 of the new card. Then sell those to a dealer for a profit of $37.50. If he's lucky and there's a big event in town this could be done in a matter of six hours.
He could hold onto them hoping they go up even higher. He makes no immediate profit, but also has to put no time into the process right now.
He has more options than this, but for now we'll stop as the point has been made. Now let's determine his profit-to-effort ratio in dollars per hour.
P:E ratio is $288/hr (if you only count the 10 minutes it took him to put up all the play sets) but the money takes 15 days before he has it all.
P:E ratio is $360/hr but his total profit is less.
P:E ratio is actually negative as he makes no money at first, but he does get to play with his cards.
P:E ratio is $6.25/hr. His profit is greater than #2 and less than #1 but he gets it all in one day.
P:E ratio is 0 because he has no profit but has also put in no effort.
Looking at those numbers it seems like #2 is clearly the best option because everyone knows $360/hr is higher than all the rest. However, his total profit is lower for #2 then #1 or #4.
Ultimately you have to determine how you value your own time. I personally enjoy trading with people at big events--except when I get railroaded early and it dampens my mood--and derive a lot of non-profit-related value this way.
Consequently, I would rarely straight up sell to a dealer unless 1) the cards were hard to move, 2) the spread was low enough that I couldn't justify the time spent trading, 3) I needed cash or trade in credit.
Fluctuations in Value
Everyone is keenly aware that card values can fluctuate rapidly. We've seen massive spikes on some cards for virtually unknown reasons as well as steady rises in others over time.
When speculating, it's critical to understand why a card's value has moved.
The good news is card values only have three options: they can go up, down, or stay the same. Let's break down causes for each.
Rise in Value
The card is brand new and demand for it exceeds supply.
The card combo's with another card previously unknown.
The card sees a steady increase in demand with no supply increases.
The demand for the card suddenly jumps as a new format/deck arises.
The card becomes unbanned in a format.
A person or group decides to manipulate the market and create a buyout (creating artificial demand).
A company decides the card's value is too low and increases their buylist price and selling prices to the point they believe it should be.
Drop in Value
The card is banned in a format.
The card is reprinted.
The card is only played in a deck(s) that have fallen out of favor.
A better card is printed that surpasses it.
The format the card is played in dies.
The card is errata'd and becomes worse.
Value Stays the Same
The demand for the card is met by the existing supply.
These are the major reasons for fluctuations in card value. (Hopefully all the reasons, but feel free to comment below if you think I missed any.) We can now use logic to determine why we believe a card's value has changed.
Occasionally it can be multiple factors--for example someone sees a hot new deck in action and buys all the cheap copies of a key card. So when looking over price fluctuations it's important to use logic and intuition to determine why the price has changed.
Quiz Time
For a bit of fun I'll list a few cards whose prices changed drastically within the past year. It's up to you to guess the reason behind each one.
Hall of the Bandit Lord
Horizon Canopy
Dark Confidant
Staff of Domination
Force of Will
?
?
?
?
Don't peak!
?
?
?
?
Now for the reasons.
Hall of the Bandit Lord -- Someone tried to manipulate the market and created a buyout. Unfortunately, it wasn't grounded on any particular deck or theory and it fizzled. The person may or may not have been unable to unload the cards fast enough to make a profit.
Horizon Canopy -- Reid Duke's Modern deck won a major event with several Horizon Canopys. A sudden surge in demand caused the card to more than double in value to $35. All in a single weekend.
Dark Confidant -- He was announced in Modern Masters causing his price to drop immediately by $5-8 dollars, only to bounce back and rocket up to the $75 range (from an initial $50-55).
Staff of Domination -- It was unbanned in EDH and immediately doubled in price, which it has maintained.
Force of Will -- SCG tried to push the price of NM copies to $99 hoping that like the fetchlands before it, its price could be jacked up to increase profits. It didn't take with the Legacy community and has since fallen back down to the $65-75 range.
Hopefully that was a fun little exercise. If you kept up with the forums you'd probably have known all of them (so definitely read/participate in the forums).
A Special Note on Reprinting
In a previous article I've looked at how reprints can seriously hurt speculation efforts. The typical price drop from a reprint (in a Standard-legal set) is around 28%, easily turning a solid spec into a profit loss.
There are a few simple questions to ask about a specific card that will help determine its likelihood of reprint.
Does the card reference a proper name from a particular block or plane? It's far less likely that Avenger of Zendikar will be reprinted in any Standard-legal set, outside of some sort of return to Zendikar. The same can be said of Inquisition of Kozilek (which references a specific character).
Does the card contain a block- or set-specific mechanic? Terminus (a miracle) and Huntmaster of the Fells (a double-faced card) are unlikely to be reprinted in a Standard-legal set unless WoTC decides to bring back their respective mechanics.
Is the card too powerful for current Standard? If WoTC believes a card was a design mistake, or if it proved far better in the real world than they anticipated, it is unlikely to be reprinted in Standard for fear of warping the metagame.
Now back to the actual speculating part....
Making Your Profit
It's critical to remember that you haven't made any profit until you've actually sold your target. If you bought a card at 50 cents and it jumps to $1 it's easy to pat yourself on the back for doubling up. But if you can't trade or sell it at $1 you haven't made any actual profit yet.
This is a critical point to get across because as previously mentioned card prices can fluctuate quite drastically. If you're unable to unload a card that went up in a timely manner, it could end up right back at or below its initial point. This is the reason many of us writers tell you to sell into the hype and lock in your profits.
Shoutouts
Given SCG Atlanta was this past weekend I thought I'd mention that I always enjoy running into fellow QSers at these events. I try to take time to chat with readers (whether they like or dislike my articles) and it's always interesting to trade with a fellow member as we're both privy to the information provided by this very site and it comes down to your own preferences and intuition.
I did want to offer a personal apology to one QSer who recognized me after our trade (I didn't get his name). I had meant to continue our conversation when someone came up desperately in need of some Jace, Architect of Thoughts and grabbed my attention.
By the time that trade was done he'd left, but hopefully he reads this and knows I really didn't mean to ignore him. Sometimes when you get in the trading mindset you lose track of the rest.
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Welcome back readers. Today I will go over the cards I am personally speculating on, but more importantly why I've chosen each one. Let's begin.
7x Drogskol Reaver
This near-bulk mythic started out in the $15 range before eventually plummeting to its $1 status. It never found a home in any Standard decks and is unlikely to see play in Modern, Legacy or Vintage.
However, I still feel that he can be very good in casual and EDH decks. The ability is quite powerful in a deck with a life gain sub-theme and double strike is a powerful ability.
The fact that it comes from a second small set (with third-set syndrome) means there are far fewer in circulation than Innistrad or Avacyn Restored mythics. While I feel this is a safe bet, the length of time it will take to pay off deters me from going much deeper.
7x Grimgrin, Corpse-Born
This is another near-bulk mythic, who at one time sat in the $3-4 range, when U/B Zombies was a solid archetype in Standard. Being a legendary zombie means that he will always have a small following in the casual crowd.
His abilities are similar to Thraximundar, but with a converted mana cost much easier to stomach. While Thraximundar gives an EDH player access to another color, Grimgrin can be exploited by being untapped multiple times in a turn.
While I don't perceive this card as a huge money maker, the fact that you can also put him in Thraximundar EDH decks means he'll always have a home in a popular Commander deck. Picking up copies for less than 50 cents seems like a safe bet long term (I can see him being $2-3 within a couple years). As with Drogskol Reaver, the projected length of investment prevents me from buying more at the moment.
9x Terminus
This miracle wrath brought real control decks back into Legacy. The format has so much deck manipulation that for the same mana as Swords to Plowshares (the most efficient targeted removal spell ever) you now get a wrath effect that puts creatures on the bottom of the library (which in some cases is considerably better than in the graveyard).
I will be picking up a lot more of these right at rotation (when I see them being at their lowest price) and I feel this is a pretty safe speculation target, given it has the miracle mechanic which is an AVR exclusive. I'll buy every copy I can at $1-1.25.
1x Restoration Angel
This is another card I'll be picking up more copies of post-rotation. This card is already seeing a lot of play in Modern as a teammate to Kiki-Jiki as well as simply a solid suprise blocker slash EoT threat. The only reason I haven't gone deeper is I feel the price will continue to trend downward until a couple months after rotation when people start looking towards the Modern season. I will pick up every copy I can at $3.
1x Legion's Initiative
This was a $10-15 card at release time, and while many of us thought it was overhyped, it has since plummeted to the $2.50-$3 range. The ability is still good, but the color combination is not usually strong in older formats. I got this as a throw-in, but if it were to hit the truly bulky status ($1) I would probably pick up another couple playsets. It's not a card I would advocate going deep on currently, but it's not a terrible card to pick up if you need a throw in to even out a trade.
8x Snapcaster Mage
This one's pretty obvious. He's a multi-format all-star. The biggest thing holding him back is the fact that's he's a rare in a heavily opened set. The playset I have in my trade binder is constantly requested, so I feel the demand for him is high enough to warrant solid profits in a 6-9 month time frame with the possibility of greater profits the further away we get from the Innistrad block. I feel he's unlikely to drop that much lower with rotation, but if you can pick up any from Standard-only players in the $15 range, I would.
3x Enter the Infinite
This card has already seen Legacy play in the Show and Tell decks (in fact it's pretty much the festablished win condition). Its power level is insane with a card-to-mana-cost ratio greater than Ancestral Recall, however its prohibitive mana cost means it almost always gets cast via an alternate method. The fact that it's a mythic from a less-drafted set (Gatecrash) means that it always has a solid profit potential with a good showing or two in a major Legacy event.
5x Cyclonic Rift
This card sees a lot of play in our local EDH decks that can run it...the fact that it's on par with Upheaval makes me think that it will remain in demand for casual players. The only real concerns are that it's a rare in a heavily-opened set and that its power level is high enough that many locals want it banned in EDH. Barring the banhammer from the EDH community this is a solid $3-5 card a couple years from now.
8x Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (German)
I picked these up from CFB when they were a deal of the day ($2 per card I believe). This is another multi-format all-star, though her ability is more limited in which style of deck she'd want to go in. She has single-handedly given Legacy Goblins new hope in a combo-centric metagame. Her ability is powerful and having first strike in a world with a lot of two-or-less-toughness threats comes in handy.
She comes from a second set which was under-drafted and had she not shown up in the Rally and Route event deck she would easily be sitting at the $4-5 range. I will be targeting this card around rotation as well.
16x Borborygmos Enraged
When I picked up most of these they were in the 50-cent range, as I believed he was incredibly powerful and would make a great EDH general. I've seen two EDH decks based around him in our area and he has proven his power level. Unfortunately, he hasn't and is unlikley to see any play in other formats (discounting his brief time in the Unexpected Results decks of Standard). He is a mythic from Gatecrash, a less-drafted set. I have no issue with picking him up as a throw in on trades to even them out, but I have cooled on my interest in him and my long-term price is closer to $1-$1.50 within the next two years.
12x Black Vise
This card is a speculation target based on the fact that it's on the Legacy banned list, but seems so out of place on it, I can see it becoming unbanned. If so, I don't foresee it having that big of an impact on Legacy anyways, but the rush of players and stores to stock up similar to the Land Tax rush would be my selling time. These I also tend to get as throw-ins on larger trades when I can.
9x Deadeye Navigator
This card has proven ridiculous in EDH play. Given the large number of enter-the-battlefield creatures that are played, his power level is through the roof. I played him in a Momir Vig deck that used Sylvan Primordial, Diluvian Primordial, Acidic Slime and other nastiness that made my opponents cringe. The foil was in one of the theme decks, so his price will likely be kept in check by this printing, but I think long-term he's a solid $4-5 card.
12x Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius
This is a pet card that helped me top-four a SCG-IQ, but his ability is incredibly powerful, he makes a good EDH general, and I honestly believe if the Standard format slows down enough with rotation, he could see a resurgence in play.
People often forget that his second ability can ping creatures, so while you may not draw a card off of it, you can kill little annoyances, and with enough mana available, big annoyances. His biggest hindrance is the double-red/double-blue in his mana cost which make him unlikely to be splashed. If Theros doesn't provide solid mana fixing, this would likely be the reason he doesn't see play.
6x Past in Flames
This card had a lot of hype when it was spoiled, many considered it the second coming of Yawgmoth's Will, a card that is banned in Legacy. It has since proven it's not that good, but it's still incredibly powerful. The biggest thing holding it back is that it's a one-of, thus the demand for them is severely limited. I got these when they were $0.75 and I don't regret that pickup, though they haven't gained much since then.
3x Grafdigger's Cage
When this card was spoiled, Dredge players around the world moaned, as it seemed WoTC was determined to kill their deck. Since that time it has seen a little play, but ultimately the hype died down quickly and the card faded into semi-obscurity. I still like it as a pickup for Modern as it shuts down Birthing Pod and Chord of Calling and also hinders Snapcaster Mage.
12x Counterflux
This card saw a brief spike after a solid performance during Standard. Currently it's in the near-bulk category, but an uncounterable counterspell that can also be used to stop storm from going off always has potential. While its mana requirements are stringent enough to keep it from really breaking out in older formats, I still like it as a sideboard option in Standard/Modern for the foreseeable future.
3x Griselbrand
A card that warped Legacy from its release date. This card is incredibly powerful. It provides Yawgmoth's Bargain on a 7/7 lifelinking flier and it's played in both Sneak and Show, Reanimator decks, and the newly-spawned Grisel-storm deck.
He's currently sitting in the $10-12 range and soon to be rotating out, however, given his current value has almost no relationship to the Standard format, I don't expect him to drop much. I would aggressively pick these up from Standard-only players, but keep in mind that there is a risk of banning (it's not likely, but of the Legacy cards that could get banned he is near the top).
1x Huntmaster of the Fells
This card was $25-30 in its Standard heyday and has since dropped to $5.50-7. He's currently considered the default four-drop to replace Bloodbraid Elf in Modern Jund decks, so should Jund retain its popularity this upcoming Modern season I can easily see him going back to the $15 range. I will happily pick these up post-rotation and I expect his price to drop even lower at rotation ($3's or so) and then I will be picking up several playsets.
Next week I will continue with Part 2 of my speculation targets. If you have any comments/suggestions please feel free to post below.
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One of the most difficult aspects of investing lies in the troubling decision of when to sell.
We find cards to acquire readily–-prices are favorable and we develop theories as to why they should increase in the future. But even when our theses occur as we predicted, we must determine when to sell out of a position.
Fortunately there’s already a basic concept in Economics that can help us decide when to sell: supply and demand.
This may seem obvious, but the traditional supply and demand curves truly do highlight an underlying concept that many investors overlook. This week I will remind everyone of some Economics 101 and use these concepts to underline my selling strategies.
The Demand Curve
My selling strategy in both stock and MTG investing can be best defined by the basic demand curve depicted above. For those unfamiliar with it, the curve is simply a representation of the amount of demand for a particular item (on the x-axis) at a given price (on the y-axis). As price goes up, demand drops.
It’s becoming more frequent nowadays to see irrational behavior from speculators. That is, when a card gets notice and shoots up in price there is a sudden spike in demand which causes the price to rise even further.
This type of irrational behavior is what occurred with Didgeridoo. The price inched up a little bit, got the notice of many speculators who then wanted the card even more, and drove the price up further on this unplayable Homelands artifact.
In rational times, as a card's price increases, demand gradually drops. Then eventually supply and demand match up when the “Invisible Hand” finds the appropriate price for a card.
This is how it’s supposed to work. I do my best to leave emotions out of my investment decisions as I focus on those basic curves.
A Specific Case - Detention Sphere
Let’s take Detention Sphere as an example. I’ve been getting a little bit of heat from a few members of the QS community for already pulling the trigger to sell a couple play sets. The general consensus is that this card is going higher in price–-I don’t necessarily disagree, although I don’t think the “enchantment-themed” Theros is nearly as synergistic with Detention Sphere as many had hoped.
I acquired my Detention Spheres at an array of prices, mostly ranging from $1.50 to $2.50. I likely overpaid on the $2.50 ones but I also got a great deal (thanks SCG!) on the $1.50 ones. Now these are up to $14.50 a set on eBay-–after shipping and fees, I estimate that equates to $2.90 each.
Following the basic concept of the demand curve, I'm less in love with investing in this card as its price increases. Don’t get me wrong--this was a sweet pickup as early as a month ago, and I’ve been enjoying the healthy returns. But I would not want to invest in this card at $14.50 per play set, because I feel the upside from here is much less.
This is trivially obvious but worth mentioning as a reminder--as an investment increases in price it becomes a less and less attractive investment. And if a card’s price gets so high that you find yourself no long interested in acquiring, then it’s probably a good time to begin selling. Sure, you can sit on some copies to protect for further upside. But if you follow the basic demand curve, a higher price should mean you want fewer copies of a card.
Going back to the Detention Sphere example, I am beginning to sell some of my copies because the price is going higher. I’m profitable on every one that I purchased at the given price so there is no fear of loss holding me back. As the price continues to rise I will continue to sell more aggressively.
With this plain and simple strategy I admittedly won’t make the most profit possible on this card. I’m fine with that. Remember the name of the game is not “make more money in MTG than everyone else”. It’s “make money in MTG”. By buying low and selling at a higher price I am succeeding while also mitigating some risk (reprints, shifts in metagames, etc.)
A General Warning About Emotions
It’s easy to fall in love with a successful investment.
For those who jumped in on Serra's Sanctum with me a month or so ago, we’ve made some serious profits by following our keen awareness of MTG speculator behavior. Enchantment Theme in Block + Reserved List + Fringe-playable Land = Good Investment.
This one was almost too easy.
The QS Forums went abuzz on this card when the TCG Player buyout occurred. Since then the price has about doubled on the legendary land. I sure enjoy 100% profits when they come.
But now this card is suddenly twice as expensive to invest in as it was last month. With the higher cost, my demand for this land has decreased drastically. On the other hand I am so excited about calling this one correctly, and I have an emotional feeling that they can only go higher. After all, they are on the Reserved List, right?
They may go higher eventually, and right now they probably won’t drop much either. But I'm just not interested in investing more money in this card at $35 each. The upside is so much less in the near-to-mid term than it was last month.
My decision: sell. Take my amazing profits and find the next investment. It is so easy to convince myself that these can go higher, and in reality they might. But I have to consider my demand curve, along with the fundamentals.
I don’t see any bonkers Legacy enchantments in Theros that may push Serra's Sanctum into Tier 1 decks. Casual demand may increase a little, but any price increase driven by casual demand should be much slower.
The drastic price spike we saw in the graph above wasn’t driven by casual players. It was driven by speculation--and largely irrational speculation at that. The same occurred with Gaea's Cradle once the new legend rule was announced.
Since the card peaked in June the value has been on a steady decline. The price became so high suddenly, and this gradually caused players to sell theirs. Price went up and demand went down–-basic economics.
The same trajectory is possible on Serra's Sanctum. If speculators drove the recent price jump, it may slowly trickle down in price over the coming months. I see no reason to sit on these investments waiting for the next catalyst when there are many other opportunities out there.
Always Anxious to Sell
Hopefully this article conveys my personal selling strategy to the skeptics out there hoping to time the market perfectly. I see no need to try to time every peak and valley perfectly. This strategy is time-consuming and carries additional risks I believe are unnecessary.
Instead, I implement the simple “buy low, sell high” strategy using a basic demand curve concept. As an investment’s price rises and I become profitable, I start to trim back a position. This strategy ensures I lock in profits while automatically keeping my behavior rational because it trims down my demand with a rising price.
Profit is all I’m after, and this strategy helps me remain disciplined to achieve my goal consistently.
…
Sigbits
Serra's Sanctum and Detention Sphere aren’t the only cards I’m trimming back for profit as prices increase. Here are some other recent sales:
Desecration Demon was a $2 card not long ago. Now it sells in the $7 range on eBay. Many believe the price ceiling on this creature is Hellrider and I’m inclined to agree. But I wasn’t about to sit around and wait for the absolute peak because there’s no way Desecration Demon remains a great investment as the price jumps. I sold all of my copies for a handy profit–-even if the price goes higher, but I’m content to move onto the next bet.
I picked up a handful of Keen Sense from Card Shark after noticing the TCG Player buyout that took place not long ago. When the copies arrived I had a tough decision to make: do I immediately sell into the recent hype of Reid Duke’s Modern Hexproof deck or do I hold until Modern PTQ season? With Modern PTQ season something like ten months away, I decided to sell now for fast profit. These will possibly increase further, but the 100% profit was too tempting to snag while it was readily available.
Voice of Resurgence has done nothing but decrease in price the past few months, and for good reason. I don’t hear much about this card these days. Fortunately I invested in this card only indirectly by purchasing Dragon’s Maze Elemental tokens. This investment paid off nicely as these tokens reached $4+ each on eBay. Considering the Lifelink and Deathtouch Wurm tokens only reached $5 or so themselves, I decided to sell all my Elemental tokens while they were on the rise.
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As we approach the release of Theros and Standard rotation, MTGO speculators should be getting ready to start picking up cards that will be Modern-legal only. Cards that are played in Modern will have value and appreciate in price when the Modern PTQ season starts up near the end of Spring 2014.
Also bear in mind that all mythic rares from rotating sets have value to redeemers, and so keeping in mind the redemption angle is important too when evaluating potential specs.
A Look to the Recent Past
Koth of the Hammer from Scars of Mirrodin (SOM) sets a good precedent for cards that don't see much competitive play. It bottomed out in the first week of November last year at around 3 tix, and subsequently rose to over 6 tix by the first week of March 2013. The other SOM planewalkers saw similar patterns, but varied in terms of price levels.
We'll use this is a guide for targeting Innistrad (ISD) block planeswalkers where most of the value comes from demand from redeemers.
Although we don't have an all-format staple planeswalker, Karn Liberated is a Modern staple in Tron decks. Last year it bottomed in the middle of October at 12.9 tix and rebounded to 28 tix by the start of Modern season in December.
We need to keep in mind that Karn is a third-set mythic rare, so this early price bottom is due to a combination of factors. This pricing pattern suggests that a card with supply constraints (the third-set effect) and recognized constructed applications will not take as long to bottom out.
Garruk
Although less played than Karn, Garruk Relentless makes occasional appearances in Modern. It also has the novelty of being the only double-faced planeswalker. These two factors are important, but the fact that it comes from Innistrad (ISD) means that speculating on this card will be a no-brainer.
ISD is going to present quite a bit of value to redeemers due to the presence of Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil. It's also a landmark set in terms of casual appeal due to the gothic horror theme. Once prices come down on ISD cards in general, the ISD mythics will get increasingly scarce online and start moving up in price.
Garruk might get overlooked in favor of the more conspicuous Liliana, so be sure to sock a few of these away in October.
Liliana
Speaking of Liliana of the Veil, she casts a long shadow in Modern where she anchors Jund decks and she also does work in the latest iteration of B/G decks (aka The Rock). Timing the bottom on this card could pay off handsomely. I put out a poll last week for people's guesses on what price it will bottom out at, and the results were quite flat. You can see the poll here.
My own guess was for the 20-25 tix range, but I'll be watching this very closely. There is little doubt in my mind this will be back into the 40+ ticket range by the time Modern season rolls around next year. Although getting in on this card will tie up quite a bit of capital, it's as close to a lock as speculative opportunities get these days, with little chance of a reprint in the coming eight months.
Tibalt
From a powerhouse planeswalker, we come to the much maligned Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded. This card had already bottomed in my estimation. It's basically seen zero competitive play since it was printed and there are no indications this will change as it rotates out of Standard. The only value this card presents at the moment is from redemption and a small amount of casual appeal.
Fortunately, Tibalt appears in a set that will present good value to redeemers. Avacyn Restored (AVR) is chock full of angels, including the Modern staple Restoration Angel. This ensures strong casual appeal.
It also has the miracle mechanic. Cards such as Terminus and Temporal Mastery show up in Legacy where Sensei's Divining Top is legal. AVR has its fair share of competitive cards as well as a healthy dose of casual appeal.
Tamiyo
The other walker from AVR, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage, has seen some competitive play in Standard so it carries a higher price tag. Koth is probably an excellent guide for determining the bottom on this card, with some premium applied due to being from a third set.
I'll be looking to pick this card up near the end of October in the 3 to 5 tix range. This target price range will get narrower as we move into October. Again, being a part of a set that will have demand from redeemers ensures Tamiyo will see higher prices in the winter.
Sorin
The last planeswalker to examine is Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. At the moment, Dark Ascension (DKA) presents almost zero value to redeemers due to the relatively high price of the online cards compared to paper versions. This might change, but for the moment I am cautious when considering speculating on any mythic rare from DKA.
Outside of redemption though, Sorin has seen some Standard play, thus should not be discounted from showing up occasionally in Modern. However, showing up in a duel deck reduces the upside on this card.
Where to Focus
If you are looking out for the next speculative opportunity on MTGO, my advice would be to save your tix until October and start acquiring rotating mythic rares then.
The planeswalkers of ISD block will be a great place to start, particularly Liliana and Garruk. Buying Tibalt right now is good value. Stay away from Sorin though, and be cautious when considering any DKA mythic rare.
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Most of you probably do not know this, but one of my favorite creatures of all time typically gets a yearly update. One of the game's oldest creatures has become the template for new creature design over the past few years. This card, if looked at in comparison to the cards we have available today, seems underpowered, but remember, this card started it all.
Don't focus on the functional reprint that they downgraded to an uncommon, but rather on the inherent strength in the basic design.
Since I started playing, Savannah Lions has been one of the most fun creatures to cast.
Aggressive decks can be quite a challenge to pilot successfully. Not only is every card choice just as important as any other deck, but your game play decisions are as well. Attacking incorrectly for one turn, or sequencing your cards incorrectly can mean losing the game.
Certainly some hands will present you only one option, play this card or keep it in your hand, but that does not mean aggro decks are simple to play. One thing you have to keep in mind is how many resources to commit to the field, but being the aggro player is filled with nuance.
This year, being the aggro player is shaping up quite nicely. Look at where we started, but also at where we’re going.
As you can see, this is not your run of the mill 2/1 for one mana. This creature is granted not one, but two abilities! The first one is an ability we have not seen on many cards so it may be hard to evaluate. There are only two cards to ever have this ability, Enemy of the Guildpact and Guildscorn Ward, and neither of them was even close to Constructed-playable.
Let’s start by thinking about how good protection from just one color is and that will help us see how good protection from multicolored really is.
In the past few years, Wizards has shied away from printing creatures with protection from a color. Searching Gatherer for protection from a color, we find this list of cards available in Standard.
There are only a couple creatures in the list that have actually seen play though. Cartel Aristocrat has seen the most play, but it is a sacrifice outlet and also being able to change which protection it gets is relevant.
The creature that illustrates my point the best is Blood Baron of Vizkopa. Baron so powerful because of his two protections. Having protection from both white and black gives him the ability to dodge much of the format's removal, as well as completely dominate any game against an opponent playing those colors.
When you are forced to fight against a creature with protection, it can often feel like you are in an unwinnable scenario. Wizards has carefully monitored which creatures they grant this ability to because printing it on the wrong creature could break formats.
What about my new Savannah Lions with protection from multicolored? Some things come to mind when I am trying to evaluate this ability on a powerful one-drop.
First of all, this protection limits the blockers your opponent can play. When your creature can’t be blocked by cards like Boros Reckoner, Loxodon Smiter, or the aforementioned Blood Baron of Vizkopa, you are taking away your opponents options. It is unlikely that their deck will have only multicolored creatures, but specific draws may.
If you have to go on the defensive, your one-drop can block their multicolored creatures endlessly, providing you time to draw out of the situation.
Finally, you will gain some life from your opponent playing their deck. I doubt the lifegain is going to drastically impact any games, but gaining a few extra life back can always help. Overall, Soldier of the Pantheon seems like a strong contender for any white based aggressive deck.
Gods' Weapons
The fact that each god has their own epic weapon is dripping with flavor. Honestly it seems like Wizards' sole goal was to make this set the most flavorful of all time. Even if they had other goals, they certainly hit this one out of the park.
These legendary artifacts remind me of the titans. What I mean is that they all impact the board immediately but they also have a relevant ability later. Let’s look at Spear of Heliod for example.
It’s been a while since we had Glorious Anthem in Standard. The last few years we have been playing with Honor of the Pure. Don’t get me wrong, Honor is great and all, but we can’t all be as good playing Mono White as Craig Wesco. Although, with devotion as a key mechanic of Theros, we are incentivized to play more mono-colored decks.
Glorious Anthem does something that I like my pump enchantment to do--get played at the right time. Sure you can still play your Honor on turn three, but if you can cast it for two mana, why wait until turn three? Sometimes, you want to cast two creatures and then follow up with your pump enchantment.
Glorious Anthem makes this line of play make sense. Turn one guy, turn two guy, turn three Glorious Anthem. This sequence of plays uses all of your mana each turn and provides consistency to your deck.
The thing is, we are just talking about Glorious Anthem. If that were the card in the set, I would still be happy and I would still play it. This weapon of the gods is better. Not only do you get your +1/+1 to your team, but you get a sweet ability to remove your opponents creatures. This card seems strong for competitive play. While I wish you could have more than one in play, just playing the first one is going to be enough the majority of the time.
The other gods' weapons look sweet too. The blue one lets you draw extra cards and clears the way for your creatures by forcing your opponent to attack. The red one gives all your creatures haste and turns your lands into creatures. The black one not only gives your creatures lifelink, but also casts Goryo's Vengeance for any creature each turn.
Finally, the green one just seems to do it all. One of my friends called it the new Umezawa's Jitte. I don’t think I’d go that far, but the plethora of abilities does make it flexible.
These enchantment artifacts are definitely powerful enough to be the weapons of the gods. Each of your creatures having deathtouch seems amazing because they will trade up to your opponent's creatures and then you get to choose from four sweet abilities when you activate it. I think they will impact the way we play Standard as well.
New Planeswalker Goodies
Elspeth, Sun's Champion costs six mana. Is that a lot, yes. Will it still see play, also yes.
Making the three 1/1’s a +1 is about as strong as they come. A minus ability that casts one of my favorite Commander cards no one knows about, Retribution of the Meek, for free, seems amazing. The emblem is obviously strong and synergizes well with both other abilities.
My main question with this card will be how well it matches up with the metagame. If no one is playing creatures with power four or greater, her wrath ability would not be good at all. That scenario is not likely in my opinion though so I think she seems solid. This may well be the first six-mana planeswalker to see serious constructed play. I will also add, she seems exactly like a battlefield commander with all her abilities, which I think adds to the card.
If Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver wasn’t made specifically for the control mirrors, I’d be very surprised. This card seems exactly like what a control deck wants from a planeswalker. Costing just three mana makes him quite good. If you want to steal their creatures to beat them with, you can do that also.
The unfortunate part about the card is the ultimate. Using the +2 each turn to build to the ultimate seems like it could have been a legitimate win condition for a grindy control deck, but it does not win you the game once you use it.
Even with a weak ultimate, the other two abilities are so good that I think this guy will see play, but maybe only in sideboards.
Xenagos, the Reveler is definitely my favorite planeswalker of the bunch. The abilities don’t seem to go together too well, but the more 2/2's you make, the more mana that will eventually turn into.
I hope there is a new ramp deck because this card seems like the missing puzzle piece to bring a ramp deck to tier-one status. It seems likely that you would be playing creatures to ramp into this planeswalker. What that means is you are likely untapping into seven mana, which is a great number to work with.
When I was thinking about a deck that included this new red-green planeswalker, I thought ramping into Borborygmos Enraged might be something to work towards, but that might not be good enough. The other way I see Xenagos being played is in an aggro deck. It may seem underwhelming to just make hasty 2/2’s, but if you have some type of Fireball effect in your deck, building your board presence with a bunch of creatures is just giving you more mana to burn them out.
I don’t know about you guys, but I am loving this set so far. It is shaping up to be not only a ton of fun to play but quite also impactful on Constructed. What are your thoughts on these cards? Post your input below and we’ll continue the Theros conversation.
