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Good Fortune: Thieves’ Guild Enforcer in Rogues

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I'm a firm believer in playing what you love in Modern, and in Magic. For me, that often means Tarmogoyf, although I do occasionally try other flavors. Among my Goyf-related pet projects is Rogues, a longstanding deckbuilding challenge with a simple rule: run 4 copies each of Thieves' Fortune and Tarmogoyf.

Creating and holding to such restrictive exercises can do wonders for both personal and format exploration, no matter the overall strength of a resulting deck and even if the excursion eventually leads to something outside its own parameters. Lately, the release of Thieves' Guild Enforcer led me to revisit Rogues, a deck that has long clamored for additional one-drops with which to enable Thieves' Fortune.

Rogues Through the Ages

Rogues started out in a Temur shell running Humble Defector and employing a Splinter Twin package. With the enchantment's banning, it adopted Traverse the Ulvenwald and Kiki-Jiki, the latter providing a clunky combo that wasn't really what I wanted to be doing in the first place. Rogues lay dead in the water until Fatal Push and Fourth Bridge Prowler baited a switch to black from red as interactive colors. And I touched again on Rogues with the release of Robber of the Rich and the unbanning of Stoneforge Mystic, the pairing of which stretched the deck thin color-wise.

Out in Force

While Prowler was great in matchups featuring x/1s, it was far from the one-drop Rogues needed, which would be closer to Delver of Secrets but on-tribe; an aggressive creature with some form of evasion that clocked adequately in a pinch. Then came Thieves' Guild Enforcer, a card compact enough to apparently merit inclusion in some actual Delver decks: CHERRYXMAN maxed out on the Human to enable Vantress Gargoyle, so why shouldn't we use it for Thieves' Fortune?

Enforcer has a number of legs up on Prowler. Once the eight-card condition is met, it swings like a flipped Delver, and with deathtouch to scare off blockers. Deathtouch is great on defense too, especially combined with flash; we can drop it into combat to take out a pesky fatty. Flash also gives us the choice between instants like Fatal Push or other options such as Spellstutter Sprite on an opponent's turn, rather than committing to playing a Rogue on our turn. Turn one Rogue can be nice to set up Fortune, but what if opponents then play Noble Hierarch? In that case, Push into Goyf tends to be a much sleeker line, and Enforcer gives us the most possible time to decide.

Sultai Rogues (Full Force Remix)

Here's where I landed:

Sultai Rogues, Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Thieves' Guild Enforcer
4 Faerie Miscreant
1 Fourth Bridge Prowler
1 Faerie Impostor
1 Spellstutter Sprite
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Brazen Borrower
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den

Artifacts

3 Cloak and Dagger
4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

4 Thieves' Fortune
4 Fatal Push
1 Spell Pierce

Sorceries

4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
1 Unearth
1 Collective Brutality

Lands

1 Island
1 Swamp
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
2 Watery Grave
1 Breeding Pool
1 Verdant Catacombs

Sideboard

4 Veil of Summer
2 Collective Brutality
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Damping Sphere
1 Faerie Macabre
1 Yixlid Jailer
1 Spell Pierce
1 Mystical Dispute
1 Bojuka Bog

The Toolbox

With all that digging and tutoring, it pays to have a fleshed out toolbox.

Fourth Bridge Prowler: A card that reinvigorated my Rogues project when it was spoiled, Prowler has indeed been demoted to bullet thanks to Thieves' Guild Enforcer, a far superior enabler for the deck. The card can still be a decent one-drop for some openers, but truly shines as a tutor target, where it shows up after blocks to finish off weakened Goyfs or pops out of the deck to handle Dark Confidant, Grim Lavamancer, mana dorks, and other troublesome x/1s.

Faerie Impostor: I always liked two copies of Impostor in this deck, since when it's good, it's very good. That being said, it's certainly clunky when it's not good, and this build is tight enough for space that I went down to one. Still, re-using ETB effects is great here, and slamming Impostor with Cloak in play creates an impressive clock at the same time.

Spellstutter Sprite: While not a Rogue, Spellstutter synergizes with a key enabler in Faerie Miscreant and gives us precious stack interaction. Grabbing Sprite for value in the mid-game is a great way to secure a lead.

Snapcaster Mage: We don't have that many instants and sorceries to hit with Snapcaster. When drawn naturally, the creature usually serves as an extra Traverse or Fatal Push. But in the deck as a Traverse target, Snap lets us re-use the bullets we dig for with Thieves' Fortune, which grants it tons of utility.

Scavenging Ooze: A late-game powerhouse and incidental grave hate for all stages of the game. Some decks absolutely have to remove this card to do their thing. Ooze hoses Uro, Snapcaster, other delirium decks and more.

Brazen Borrower: Another excellent newcomer for the archetype, Borrower is itself a Rogue with flash, lending itself well to enabling Fortune. At the same time, it's a searchable bounce spell and multiple spells rolled into one card.

Lurrus of the Dream-Den: The sleeper best creature in the deck, and a major draw to Traverse strategies in black. Having access to a multi-use Snapcaster for permanents helps us win wars of attrition in the late-game, and we're already on 4 Bauble. Of course, that makes Lurrus better suited to shells like Jund Rock, but those lists are rarely equipped to run a Traverse package. That means we can benefit from Lurrus in those matchups.

Noncreature Bullets

Traverse the Ulvenwald won't find these bad boys, but thanks to Thieves' Fortune, they're never too far out of reach. As mentioned, boasting Snapcaster lets us semi-reliably use a key spell twice in a game.

Spell Pierce: Pierce is just so good in Modern. The noncreature-heavy decks walk into it at all points of the game, be it with big planeswalkers or just generally big turns, and a naturally-drawn Pierce beaks up early plans like nobody's business. It's mostly just bad against Zoo-style decks, which are more or less nonexistent right now. Against Prowess, the format's closest analogue, countering Manamorphose or Light Up the Stage is the truth.

Unearth: Similar to Snapcaster, with some downsides and upsides: it can't be searched, but it provides a tempo boost. Also excellent with Snapcaster, not to mention Lurrus. Unearth represents a lot of options in the mid-game.

Collective Brutality: Early enabler or all-around role player, as needed. Extra copies in the side help us turn on lightning-fast in the matchups where Brutality dominates, like Burn.

Situating in Modern

Not too long after I started messing around with Rogues again, Stormwing Entity came to be, which prompted a change of course that currently has me singing its praises in a different Traverse the Ulvenwald deck. The lesson from Rogues this time around is similar to the lesson from Rogues the first: the better deck tends to abuse the better card better.

That fact of life has me second-guessing Delirium Delver—is the deck necessarily on an even keel with Traverse Shadow, Modern's other delirium exploiter? Natch, the only way to find out is to keep on grinding! How are your piles holding up, and what have you learned about your favorite cards in isolation? Let's keep the conversation going in the comments.

July ’20 Metagame Update: Post-Astrolabe Ban

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Another month gone in quarantine. At least, I think it's been a month. Time is steadily losing all meaning to me. What even is this year, and what was I talking about? Oh yeah, it's August now, so I need to take another look at Modern's metagame. Fire up the spreadsheets and break out the data; let's see what's changing!

The banning of Arcum's Astrolabe means that I can't use the totality of July's data. Anything from before July 13 reflects a Modern that no longer exists. Therefore, I'm only going to sample post-ban results, meaning everything from July 13 until July 31. I also can only sample those events that have actually had their data published, which I think is obvious, but it's not every event that has happened. I've checked: more Preliminaries and Challenges happen every week than Wizards reports. I don't know if this is Wizards refusing to publish everything or if events are failing to fire. In any case, a craftsman must work with the tools he has.

July Metagame

In a departure from my usual method, I'm doing as close as is actually possible to our earlier-style metagame update. I can't actually do an update exactly like we did in the early days for several reasons. However, I've adapted it to the current realities and am going to keep refining the method. It's not perfect, but it's a more statistical method than I have been using.

The first and primary reason is that the old system simply isn't needed right now. It used a points-based weighting system in effort to smooth out the discrepancies between paper and online Magic. Paper results were given extra weight because they were more reliable. MTGO may be more accessible, but it also has a smaller player base. Millions play Magic, but only a small fraction are willing to maintain a digital collection. Those that do play MTGO tend to play lots of events and show up in results more often, leading to more outlier results. That just didn't happen in paper, so we added weight to the more accurate results. There are no paper events happening, just MTGO events. Thus the weighting system is meaningless.

The second reason is that even if I were to use the system, it wouldn't accomplish anything. Tiers were determined using a points system, rewarding decks that placed highly rather than those that were simply popular. That points system was designed for a world with Grand Prix and Pro Tours. We don't have those now, and coupled with a lack of paper results, the pointing system didn't actually change anything. When I did June's metagame, I tried the points and it was the same as doing it by prevalence. So I dumped the points to save myself some work and readers some confusion.

The Tier List

That said, the statistical method of determining Tiers is still valid. Take the average result, and anything that does at least twice the standard deviation above that is Tier 1. Between one and two deviations is Tier 2. From one deviation to the average is Tier 3. I recorded 55 different decks in my sample range, representing 350 results. The average number of results was ~6, with a standard deviation of  ~7. So any deck with at least six results made the tier list. 13 results makes Tier 2 and 20 or more is Tier 1. I'm doing the entire list in one table because Tier 1 is very small.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Eldrazi Tron3610.28
Izzet Prowess298.28
Ponza236.57
Jund226.28
Tier 2
Mono-Green Tron195.43
Dredge174.86
UW Stoneblade174.86
Snoop Goblins144
Tier 3
UW Control113.14
Rakdos Prowess113.14
Storm102.86
Burn102.86
Temur Shift102.86
Humans92.57
Mono-Red Prowess92.57
Temur Rec72
GDS72
Amulet Titan72

Four decks crossed my threshold to make Tier 1. Eldrazi Tron is sitting atop the metagame by a comfortable margin. This is followed by newcomer Izzet Prowess, which has blue for primarily Sprite Dragon and Stormwing Entity. Old standby Ponza and a resurgent Jund round out the top. The old guard may celebrate, for Jund is apparently Tier 1 again.

Mono-Green Tron is also back, just missing the Tier 1 cutoff. It's joined by Dredge, UW Stoneblade, and Goblins in Tier 2. It's interesting and convenient that there are only four decks apiece in the top two tiers, but that's how the data fell. UW Control and Rakdos Prowess lead a very diverse Tier 3, filled with old stalwarts and Temur decks. There's a lot to consider here, so let's pull it apart for easy digestion.

Bant 'Snow-More

First and foremost, Bant generally and Bant Snow specifically are gone. No bant decks made my Tier list. In fact, Temur Reclamation and Scapeshift are the only Tiered decks that played snow-basics and Ice-Fang Coatl. And that wasn't universal. Along with snow's decline, Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath has taken a beating. Again, the Temur decks still ran him, but the metagame as a whole has moved on. I think it safe to say that banning Arcum's Astrolabe worked. Snow isn't completely dead, however, and both Bant and Sultai Snow did put up results. Not enough to be Tier decks, but enough to tell me that they're still reasonably competitive. Sultai did slightly better, likely thanks to Dead of Winter; without Astrolabe, players need another compelling reason to play Snow to make the spin worth it.

On the same note, the metagame has been throughly shaken up. Eldrazi Tron and Ponza are the only decks still in top tier slots from before. Big threats, acceleration, and disruption are a good combination. This isn't entirely surprising in context. Before the ban, Snow midrange decks reigned and got all the press. Eldrazi and Ponza are both decks that are good at out-muscling midrange. This may also be a factor in Mono-Green Tron's resurgence. It's a master of going over the top of decks, but struggles against counterspells. The main counterspell deck took a hit, so now Tron's back.

Colorless Menace?

On that note, Eldrazi Tron has a very commanding metagame percentage relative to everything else. This shouldn't be too surprising for the above-mentioned reasons, but there is something else to consider: Eldrazi is cheap online. Eldrazi Tron has been one of the cheapest good decks on MTGO for years. It's not the cheapest, but it's never too far out of contention, making it a very solid investment. Thus, it always sees a lot of play and does well online, which is a big asterisk on its results. However, this time I think E-Tron's position is justifiable thanks to the next entry.

...Or Red's Prowess?

An unexpected entry is Izzet Prowess. Prowess doing well is no surprise; 2020 has been a good year for tiny hasty red people. That Izzet supplanted Mono-Red to such a degree is surprising. At least some of that can be put down to deck-of-the-month syndrome. It's new and plays new cards, so there's excitement for the deck and higher adoption as a result. However, Dragon and Entity genuinely seem like upgrades to the deck, so this might be no accident.

Still, to link back to E-Tron, Prowess is simply the most popular archetype on MTGO right now. I recorded 53 different Prowess decks, the most popular being Izzet and Rakdos. That means Prowess represents 15% of the metagame, far surpassing any other strategy. This in turn helps explain E-Tron's prevalence. Prowess is explosive thanks to all its one-drops. Etron is really a Chalice of the Void deck, and Chalice is a nightmare for Prowess. Izzet can fight Chalice better thanks to Dragon's buffs being permanent, but like any velocity deck when the motor spins down, Prowess just sputters. So long as this Prowess saturation continues, Etron will be very well positioned.

Also, UW Control is Back

The final thing to note is that UW is back. It has been hanging around for some time, but the Bant decks kept overshadowing everyone else thanks to all the now-banned cards. With Bant finally suppressed, UW is rising again. Not only that, there's a choice of strategies. UW Stoneblade was the more popular deck in July, but straight UW Control was a fine choice. Worth noting, if I'd combined the two, then UW would be Tier 1. Don't sleep on this deck.

Worth noting: UW Control has a pretty narrow range of spells, while Stoneblade is all over the place. There is a standard package of Cryptic Command, Path to Exile, Mana Leak, Opt, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and Teferi, Time Raveler across all flavors of UW. The distinction is win conditions. Control tends to have few creatures and relies on planeswalkers to win. Stoneblade, naturally, plays more creatures, but there's no consistency. Some are closer to UW Tempo with Restoration Angel and value creatures. Some are closer to control and use Shark Typhoon. The central interaction package is proving to be very flexible for however you choose to play UW.

The Weekly Discrepancy

However, this metagame only emerges when you look at the aggregate data. On a weekly basis, things are not so clear. And E-Tron starts to look like an outlier. And other decks start to look more like real contenders. This is the problem with only using MTGO results: there are wild fluctuations, and flavor of the week is very, very real. As a result I want to reiterate that my results only apply to MTGO, and there is no "real" Modern metagame right now. When paper eventually comes back, there will be more stability and reliability to the metagame results.

Week 1

Case in point: consider how things looked during the first week post-Astrolabe. There was no data to go on, and so it reflects the rawest take on the new Modern. And the top tier was figured out, even if nothing else was. I'm going to include the full list of every deck for each week. This is partially to settle any questions about where X deck ended up, but also so that everyone can see the raw data I created the tier list from. And if they want to challenge my work, they have the data to do it with.

Deck NameTotal #
Jund8
Eldrazi Tron7
Izzet Prowess7
Ponza7
Burn5
Mono-G Tron5
Storm4
GDS4
Snoop Goblins4
Prowess3
UW Control3
Infect3
Rakdos Prowess3
UW Stoneblade3
Sultai Snow3
Amulet Titan2
Rakdos Midrange2
Neoform2
Toolbox2
Humans2
Sultai Rec2
Dredge2
Crabvine1
Ad Nauseam1
Bogles1
Izzet Delver1
Bant Valakut1
Copycat1
Elementals1
Sliver1

The top four decks the first week are July's Tier 1. They're not in the same order, but they're all there. And on top by a decent margin considering the overall sample size. Past that, the whole of Modern is in flux. The mid-level decks are nothing like the final Tier 2, and there's a wild assortment of singletons. Which is about what I'd expect of a brewers metagame post-ban.

Week 2

The week of July 19 was the week that made E-Tron the top deck in July. However, it did so in a way that makes it look like an anomaly.

Deck NameTotal #
Eldrazi Tron21
Jund9
Izzet Prowess9
Mono-G Tron8
UW Stoneblade8
Ponza8
Snoop Goblins7
Dredge7
Jund Shadow5
Storm5
Ad Naus5
Temur Shift5
UW Control5
Mono-R Prowess4
Amulet Titan4
Burn4
BR Prowess4
Humans3
Bant Snow3
GR Prowess3
Temur Reclamation2
Sultai Reclamation2
GDS2
Infect2
Bant Reclamation1
Toolbox1
Sultai Snow1
EnT1
As Foretold1
Hardened Scales1
Mono-W Tokens1
U Tron1
Jund Prowess1
Pox1
Neoform1
4 C Shadow1
UB Tempo1
Crabvine1
Niv 2 Light1
Whirza1
Titan Shift1
Slivers1
Bant Control1
Temur Control1

That is a huge spike in placings, from 7 to 21. Especially when looking at the other decks, which are all doing about the same as they did the previous week. Week 2 had more results reported than the other weeks, but that doesn't seem to have been a factor in E-Tron tripling its presence. I don't have a means of explaining this spike. Mono-Green Tron was also up, so it may have been a good week for Big Mana. The catch is that Amulet Titan plummeted from 4 to 1, so if it was Big Mana's time, it was only for the colorless crowd. This smells like a popularity-driven spike, and therefore an outlier and not indicative of anything. However, I have no way to verify if that's true.

Week 3

That week 2 spike looks especially suspect when moving to last week's results. And then adds more side-eye to the conversation when looking at Izzet Prowess.

Deck NameTotal #
Izzet Prowess13
Eldrazi Tron8
Dredge8
Ponza8
UW Stoneblade6
Mono-G Tron6
Temur Shift5
Jund5
Temur Rec5
Rakdos Prowess4
Humans4
Bant Snow3
Snoop Goblins3
UW Control3
Copycat2
Hammer Bros2
Burn2
DnT2
Mono-R Prowess2
Niv 2 Light2
Sultai Rec2
GDS1
Jund Shadow1
As Foretold1
Storm1
Crabvine1
Amulet Titan1
Izzet Breach1
Dimir Control1
Temur Control1
Gruul Eldrazi1

E-Tron is back to previous levels, while it was Izzet Prowess specifically that spiked. No other Prowess deck spiked, so it was something to do with the Izzet version that week. The spiking of the two decks that ended up being the top of the metagame is particularly suspect when looking through the rest of the data. Everything else that eventually made Tiers 1-2 was very consistent. Were it not for those spikes, the top 2 decks wouldn't have been on top by the margins they were and Tier 1 would have been a very level playing field. Thus, I regard the top decks with suspicion.

What it Means

There's no bones about it, Prowess variants were the most popular decks in July, followed by Eldrazi Tron. E-Tron is suspect for many reasons, but I can be unequivocal about Prowess. Even without Izzet's spike, the archetype would have beaten everything else by a good margin. That's what I would prepare against first and foremost. Outside of that, Modern looks like it's in a good, diverse place again. However, we'll see how it develops.

Banned and Restricted List Update – August 3rd, 2020

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The August 3rd, 2020 Banned and Restricted announcement is live! Here's the full list of cards in every format:

Standard

Wilderness Reclamation is banned.

Growth Spiral is banned.

Teferi, Time Raveler is banned.

Cauldron Familiar is banned.

This is perhaps one of the most impactful Standard bannings that Magic has ever seen. This sweeping change is probably too little, too late, considering most of these cards were due to leave at rotation, but will be a welcome reprieve for those still playing the format on Arena and MTGO. Growth Spiral decks alone accounted for "68% of the Day 1 metagame" at the most recent Player's Tour Finals.

The looming presence of COVID-19 has suppressed the value of Standard cards across the board, but many cards are primed to see movement due to this change.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Pioneer

Inverter of Truth is banned.

Kethis, the Hidden Hand is banned.

Walking Ballista is banned.

Underworld Breach is banned.

In what is definitely the most significant banning since the inception of the format, Pioneer's metagame is given the chance to open up by removing four of the most prominent combo decks in one fell swoop. Dimir Inverter, Kethis Combo, Lotus Breach, and White Weenie (Heliod Ballista) all lose a namesake piece, save for White Weenie. This acts as a strong signal that Pioneer is geared toward fair matches of Magic, and we may not see combo decks of the same style for a long while, if ever.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Walking Ballista

A notable mention from Ian Duke on this round of bannings was the potential banning of Thassa's Oracle, which enables combo kills with Underworld Breach and Inverter of Truth. We get the privilege of seeing how the format shakes out with this potential combo enabler still intact, but time will tell if there is a viable strategy to go along with it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thassa's Oracle

Historic

Wilderness Reclamation is suspended.

Teferi, Time Raveler is suspended.

Brawl

Teferi, Time Raveler is banned.

Effective Date and Timing

Breaking with what was somewhat of a tradition, these bans have taken effect immediately as the announcement dropped. We've previously seen separate dates for bans to take effect on various platforms like Magic Arena and MTGO with a pre-announcement for action a week later. This time, we're seeing changes effective immediately with Ian Duke citing the "increased focus on digital platforms" as the primary reason for these swift changes.

Link to the full article by Ian Duke on the mothership.

Reserved List Staples March Higher

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There was a brief couple weeks at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in America, when I didn’t track Card Kingdom’s buy prices. They had to put a pause on their selling, so they dropped their buy prices dramatically. The reduction in buy prices moved in tandem with the selloff in the stock market.

Since then, both the stock market and the Magic market have rebounded robustly. I’m back to monitoring Card Kingdom’s buy prices on a daily basis. I’ve also resumed sending in trade orders to ABUGames, exploiting corner cases of arbitrage where I can find it.

As recently as yesterday (Sunday, August 2nd), Card Kingdom increased their buy prices on some Reserved List cards to the highest they’ve ever been on the site. This week I’m going to provide some updates, highlighting where the pockets of strength are, and where we may see the next wave of increases based on the “out of stock” nature of certain cards.

Dual Lands Climb Again

I’m guessing the relentless climb in Dual Lands stems from persistent demand from Commander and Cube players alongside an inelastic supply curve (prices increase, but supply does not increase in kind). There are no major events where the everyday player can sell their cards (GenCon was just canceled) and not everybody is comfortable mailing cards into a buylist.

Thus, here we are seeing buy prices on Dual Lands hit all-time highs. Here’s the breakdown (Revised Edition, Near Mint):

Underground Sea: $360
Volcanic Island: $295 (this isn’t quite at its high but still close)
Tropical Island: $265
Bayou: $230
Tundra: $210
Badlands: $185
Savannah: $170
Taiga: $170
Scrubland: $150
Plateau: $120

There was an error retrieving a chart for Savannah

Not every one of these prices is the highest ever, but they’re all quite strong. Don’t forget, Card Kingdom’s downgrade for condition is very reasonable on these cards:

Since I’m not talking about Alpha, Beta, or Unlimited Duals here, and all buy prices are over $100, you get Card Kingdom’s best rate on EX, VG, and G condition cards. This makes Card Kingdom’s new buy prices highly attractive.

Or does it?

I will admit I saw the $170 buy price on Savannah and immediately thought about shipping my heavily played copy in for some cash. $119 after downgrades is more than I can remember ever being offered for a heavily played Savannah. But then I checked TCGplayer: the cheapest copy there, in Damaged condition, is listed for over $155. Therefore, I could probably sell my copy at $150 and net $135 or so after fees.

The cheapest Near Mint Savannah is listed on TCGplayer at around $200, or $180 after fees. So even nicer copies could probably fetch a little more than Card Kingdom’s buylist (though I’d argue there’s value to guaranteeing immediate sale to a buylist rather than posting and waiting).

This is all to say one thing: we may not be seeing peak Dual Land buy prices just yet. I doubt a wave of supply will suddenly hit the market unless prices climb higher. And it’s interesting how non-blue duals have climbed so much whereas some of the blue duals have moved far less—could blue duals be due for a bump up in step with the non-blue ones? Tundra’s buy price is only $40 more than Taiga and that seems abnormal.

It’ll be interesting to see where things go from here but for now at least, I’m not selling my duals.

Other Soaring Buy Prices

Outside of Dual Lands, other Reserved List staples are also relentlessly climbing higher and Card Kingdom’s buylist is following in kind. When I jump over to their hotlist this Sunday morning, I readily see some fresh new highs. Noteworthy buylist increases include:

Gaea's Cradle: $380 (higher than Underground Sea!)
Mox Diamond: $260
Lion's Eye Diamond: $190
Grim Monolith: $135
Wheel of Fortune: $140
Gilded Drake: $135
City of Traitors: $110
Serra's Sanctum: $95
Survival of the Fittest: $95

Like before, these all aren’t necessarily at their exact all-time highs. But some are, and others are closing in. Some of these higher prices are probably (again) driven by Commander. But I can’t imagine Lion's Eye Diamond sees a ton of Commander play given its hand-discarding clause. Yet this one moves up in kind with the others.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond

I wonder if another factor driving up these prices is that we have another reprint set being spoiled and players are again reminded of the safety offered by Reserved List cards? Having chunks of your collection suddenly lose 30-70% of its value can be a feel-bad for some, and maybe they’re seeing these trends and are picking up Reserved List staples in kind?

I don’t want to rehash the old debate of whether or not Magic is a good “investment”. Instead, I’ll merely point out the past performance has been awfully compelling and this could be motivating some individuals to acquire Reserved List cards as an alternate investment. Perhaps added stimulus from the government during COVID-19 is adding fuel to the fire.

On top of that, the U.S. Dollar has weakened recently and this could be driving some high-dollar cards overseas. Perhaps the supply is dropping in the U.S. exclusively, and this is driving prices up? This could explain these new highs.

As the dollar drops, other currencies strengthen on a relative basis. Someone holding Euros, Pesos, or Yen have suddenly gained buying power from U.S. Magic shops. They could possibly make profit via arbitrage, and this could be driving up prices stateside.

Perhaps it’s just a combination of all these factors and more. But either way, the data doesn’t lie: prices on Reserved List staples continue to climb!

Not All Ships Are Rising…Yet

With the recent increases in Dual Land and Reserved List buy prices, I’m surprised to see certain pockets of the market are bucking that trend; particularly at Card Kingdom.

For example, I have a small collection of Arabian Nights cards that I would be tempted to sell if prices climbed enough. Something like Library of Alexandria has historically climbed in tandem with other Reserved List cards. This time around, that hasn’t been the case so far. Card Kingdom’s buy price on the card remains fixed at $780. They have a couple copies in stock, too, so I doubt they’re about to up that buy number.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

What’s more, there are some heavily played Libraries on TCGplayer in the low-to-mid $700’s, where they’ve been for months now. The same goes for most Arabian Nights cards, in fact. Prices have not climbed on these nearly as much as they have on Dual Lands.

Another set that hasn’t seen much price action lately is Unlimited. There was a moment when Card Kingdom paid very aggressively on Power and Unlimited duals, but those days are behind us. Now they offer less-than-competitive numbers for these cards. $6600 for Black Lotus, $1650 for Ancestral Recall, and just $467.50 for Underground Sea? These prices just aren’t competitive.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancestral Recall

But unlike the Arabian Nights cards, the difference here is that Card Kingdom is completely wiped out of the high-end Unlimited cards. Their buy prices are just too low to bring in sufficient stock. They do have a near mint Black Lotus for sale at $11999.99. They also have one Mox Sapphire and two Mox Emeralds in stock. After that, though, the next most expensive Unlimited card they have in stock are two G Shivan Dragons at $56 each. They are completely out of stock of every card in between (and there are a bunch!).

I wonder if someone will make the call to up buy prices on these cards soon. I imagine they should at least increase their buy and sell prices on Unlimited Dual Lands, right? This way the Unlimited copies keep pace with their Revised counterparts?

Are the high-end cards ignored because people aren’t wanting to spend $1000’s on a Magic card right now? Maybe there’s a sweet spot around $100-$300, a much easier pill to swallow? Maybe some vendors just aren’t interested in stocking up on such high-dollar cards at the moment? That would explain the underwhelming buy prices despite being out of stock. It seems like buy prices on Power are down across the board.

I have to imagine the rising tide will lift these ships eventually. When is a tougher thing to say, but I will definitely be following this market closely in the coming months and will report back any movement I observe.

Wrapping It Up

Dual Lands are more expensive now than they’ve basically ever been before. Other Reserved List staples in the $100-$300 range continue to climb in lockstep, including Mox Diamond, Gaea's Cradle, and Wheel of Fortune. These are all notching new highs as supply doesn’t get refilled as quickly as before.

However, the high-dollar cards such as Library of Alexandria and Power are not climbing. Their prices have really stagnated lately, and many vendors are offering pitifully low buy prices for these iconic cards (did I mention ABUGames is paying just $3861 in cash for a near mint Unlimited Black Lotus??).

There could be good reason for this discrepancy. I suspect players are willing to splurge $200 for a Dual Land to optimize their Commander deck, but less interested (or unable to) splurge $1600 for a piece of Power. The big question is, will the high-end cards eventually play catch up? The gap between a playset of Underground Sea and a piece of Power can only get so small before players may be tempted to make the trade. It’s this trend that I’ll be watching out for.

In the meantime, I’m holding the Reserved List staples, for the most part. I may sell a couple cards I’m less attached to; as long as COVID-19 shuts down all large events, vendors will have a tough time re-stocking and this will lead to higher prices. The weakening U.S. Dollar is another tailwind for card prices as buyers from overseas take advantage of their new buying power.

All this to say Reserved List staples have climbed significantly in recent weeks and I don’t see that trend reversing anytime soon!

July ’20 Brew Report, Vol. 2: Bird in the Bush

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Last week I unveiled Delirium Delver, my latest pile featuring Tarmogoyf and Serum Visions. It was Stormwing Delver that got me brewing again, and apparently I wasn't alone. Today, we'll explore Modern's latest spell-attack renaissance by looking at what the tempo heads are slinging online. Clearly, there's no shortage of options!

Flipping the Table

That's right, I'm still not out of "flip" idioms! Nor is Modern out of ways to make a 3/2 go.

Temur Jolrael Delver, SONKERZ (5-0)

Creatures

3 Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Delver of Secrets
3 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

3 Archmage's Charm
2 Deprive
2 Force of Negation
1 Izzet Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Magmatic Sinkhole
4 Opt
1 Spell Snare

Sorceries

1 Flame Slash
3 Of One Mind
4 Serum Visions

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
4 Island
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Mystic Sanctuary
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Abrade
2 Aether Gust
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Relic of Progenitus
2 Veil of Summer
2 Weather the Storm

Temur Jolrael Delver doesn't bother with Hooting Mandrills or Stormwing Entity, preferring to employ Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse as additional copies of Young Pyromancer. While it's a weaker beater on its own and more difficult to trigger, requiring cantrips rather than literally any instant or sorcery, Jolrael rewards players for their patience by churning out 2/2s, which are twice as big as Pyro's Elementals. Still, Jolrael produces but one token per turn.

The real reason to run a functional seven Pyromancers is an increased ability to abuse Of One Mind. Cheaply gassing up is incredibly good in Delver shells, since they have so many efficient spells to deploy quickly; Jolrael Temur Delver is built enough with the sorcery in mind to run three copies.

Jeskai Delver, NHA37 (3-2, Modern Preliminary #12182513)

Creatures

4 Sprite Dragon
4 Stormwing Entity
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

2 Gut Shot
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Manamorphose
4 Opt
2 Path to Exile
2 Surgical Extraction

Lands

2 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Seachrome Coast
4 Spirebluff Canal
1 Steam Vents

Sideboard

2 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
2 Path to Exile
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Alpine Moon
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Seasoned Pyromancer
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Wear // Tear

Jeskai Delver, too, opts for a less-than-common threat suite. Both Sprite Dragon and Stormwing are run at max numbers here, giving the deck a more pronounced prowess direction. The deck's "glue" is truly Manamorphose, which increases instant/sorcery count for Delver, rushes out Stormwing, triggers both the Elemental and the Dragon, and can even be flashed back with Snapcaster Mage in a pinch. Morphose also casts Lightning Helix off an Island, something I know must come up since I've come to rely on it to enable basic Forest in a deck that often casts all red or blue one-drops in a turn.

Especially thanks to Stormwing, but also independent of the newcomer, I'm becoming increasingly enamored with Manamorphose in Delver shells for this reason. It's just so damn versatile! The cantrip's biggest drawback in Delver has always been its awkwardness with countermagic: if we draw into Mana Leak on our main phase, we lose out on the two mana held up on an opponent's turn. But as my recent builds haven't featured Mana Leak (or other permission spells more expensive than Stubborn Denial), that hasn't been much of an issue, and the instant's greasing oil has been felt profoundly within the machine.

Vantress Delver, CHERRYXMAN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Thieves' Guild Enforcer
4 Delver of Secrets
3 Vantress Gargoyle
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Brazen Borrower

Instants

4 Drown in the Loch
1 Force of Negation
1 Into the Story
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mana Leak
1 Spell Pierce
1 Spell Snare
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

3 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Serum Visions
1 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
1 Mystic Sanctuary
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
2 Steam Vents
3 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Spell Snare
2 Bitterblossom
2 Ceremonious Rejection
3 Collective Brutality
2 Fatal Push
2 Mystical Dispute
3 Surgical Extraction

Flying totally off the rails is Vantress Delver, a deck brought to us by column regular CHERRYXMAN. VD is a spin on my old brew, UB Trap, that aimed to set off Archive Trap and then flood the skies with huge beaters in Jace's Phantasm and the namesake Vantress Gargoyle. Of course, that deck had the issue of not always starting with Archive Trap.

VD declines to run Trap altogether, instead investing in a one-drop Plan B made possible by Thieves' Guild Enforcer. Together with Delver, Enforcer fronts early pressure and baits opponents into interacting, which fills their graveyards. Of course, Enforcer also does some milling, some of it maybe triggered by the Rogue Brazen Borrower.

Filling out the disruption suite, which otherwise features staples in Inquisition and Bolt, is Drown in the Loch. Provided players fulfill its condition, Drown does it all, and here it takes care of enemy synergies and roadblocks while patrolling the stack.

Bird Eats the Bug

None of the above Delver decks featured Stormwing Entity, the card that made me excited again to sleeve up the Human Insect. But Entity's far from a sleeper this month, turbo-charging Modern's latest bumpin' archetype: UR Prowess. It seems like an Entity-fueled blue splash is everything the dwindling Prowess archetype needed to remain relevant.

A sample list, from none other than our buddy TUBBYBATMAN:

UR Prowess, TUBBYBATMAN (3-2, Modern Preliminary #12176966)

Creatures

4 Stormwing Entity
2 Sprite Dragon
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Soul-Scar Mage

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Instants

4 Gut Shot
4 Lava Dart
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Peek

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
4 Fiery Islet
2 Mountain
4 Spirebluff Canal
4 Steam Vents

Sideboard

3 Abrade
2 Dragon's Claw
4 Spell Pierce
3 Surgical Extraction
3 Vapor Snag

UR Prowess was absolutely the story of the month in online events. Besides the above preliminary, the deck appeared in four others, and dominated the 5-0s. Stormwing is a natural fit for the deck other than its color, but as splashing one color is trivial in Modern, especially for decks already in Blood Moon's color, it ain't no thang to toss in a set of Islets.

Different builds are also emerging, with some running Bedlam Reveler for late-game oomph and others still dipping into Of One Mind. As with Delver, a low-curve, high-efficiency strat like UR Prowess makes great use of a one-mana draw-two. What tickles me about Mind is how fairly it's being applied: these are decks that literally run some Humans and some non-Humans, and here they are planning on drawing and resolving each normally before firing it off. It feels like Standard! But it also speaks to the cantrip's power, and its potential explosiveness alongside effective enablers. After all, if the card can make Young Pyromancer playable again....

A Spell Over Modern

I've long held that a format with successful tempo and midrange decks is one exhibiting strong signs of health. That's where Modern's at currently, at least judging by these dumps, and I hope its diversity continues into August. See you then!

Budget-Focused: Deflecting Palm, a Core Set 21 Uncommon, and More for Your Pioneer Binder!

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Welcome back for another week of great Magic discussion! Unfortunately, one of the cards that was on my long list of Pioneer specs popped recently, and that card was Oath of Nissa. No need to fret friends, as there are more diamonds in the rough to pluck before the masses take them. Today we have some more cards to put on your list, and I hope you all see the intrigue!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

Deflecting Palm The Best Aggro Defense Card?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deflecting Palm

To start, we have a Boros instant that popped once upon a time and has since come back down. Deflecting Palm is a fantastic card and it should be considered in any Boros build, and at the very least the sideboard. It is currently being used in Modern Red Deck Wins builds, which is why it popped when it did. Now with Pioneer, Deflecting Palm most certainly has room to grow over time!

The current price for Deflecting Palm is $1.68 for the non-foil, $3.74 for the foil, and $4.20 for the prerelease foil. There is a slew of situations where this can come in handy given the current state of the meta. Some people have theories of Eldrazi being utilized more in the future. They are being used now in certain decks currently, but if they get used even more then this is a heavy hitter. Not to mention builds that look to bolster 1/1 counters, using enchantments/artifacts to buff, and buff spells to hit for a lot all at once. Aggro decks love this for potential big damage for two mana, and they hate it when it's used against them.

Boros and Red Deck Wins make up 10% of the current meta. This should be drawing some attention for that reason alone. Regarding aggro, they also need to have a good defensive option, and this card is literally that. Deflecting Palm makes for a great late-game bomb if your opponent has a big damage source. Here is an example of where this should be tucked in the sideboard if not the mainboard.

Boros Feather by ExtraEasy88

Creatures

3 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Favored Hoplite
3 Feather, the Redeemed
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Selfless Savior
4 Tenth District Legionnaire

Other Spells

4 Boros Charm
4 Defiant Strike
4 Fight as One
4 Gods Willing
4 Reckless Rage

Lands

4 Battlefield Forge
2 Clifftop Retreat
4 Inspiring Vantage
1 Mountain
4 Plains
4 Sacred Foundry

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
2 Erase
1 Feather, the Redeemed
3 Gideon of the Trials
2 Isolate
2 Ordeal of Heliod
2 Rest in Peace
1 Wear // Tear

Unleashing Big Damage With Unleash Fury

There was an error retrieving a chart for Unleash Fury

The next card we have is another card that has potential in future aggro builds. Unleash Fury is one that has great synergy value in aggro decks, especially creatures with double strike. A card like Swiftblade Vindicator could end a game using both Titan's Strength and then Using Unleash Fury without an answer. Potentially hitting for 16 on turn three is nothing to scoff at considering this is an easily attainable play. The other great thing within that example is the vindicator also has trample, so chumps are not an issue. Another great thing about this is it is mono-colored, so it is more verse for building.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Swiftblade Vindicator

The current price is coming in at $0.25 for the non-foils and $0.54 for the foils. The foils are the most intriguing here, as the upside far outweighs the non-foils. The non-foils have value but might not gain as much as it’s foil counterpart. If this gets as much play as it should, the foil could get up to the $2.50 - $3.50 range. That might not sound like much but buying four at $2.16 then selling them for at least $10.00 is great for an uncommon. This also has potential to hit red deck wins in Modern. If that were to happen this just adds more value to this hidden gem.

Getting Rocked With Chained To The Rocks And Sigarda's Aid

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chained to the Rocks

Chained to the Rocks is currently being used in Boros and should be a staple in Pioneer going forward. Although it is like the poor man's Path to Exile, it is the closest thing in the format for a one drop. With the current price is $0.20 for the non-foils and $1.17 for the foils. This price is a steal and should increase over time. Unless there is a white one drop that is like Path to Exile, Chained to the Rocks should rise to at least the $2.00 - $3.00 range for the non-foils. It is very straight forward where this can be used but the future upside is most definitely there monetarily speaking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sigarda's Aid

The last card we are going to discuss today is one that already popped but has more room to grow over time. Sigarda's Aid is one that has the potential to grow over time as it can be plugged into both Aura and/or Equipment styled brews. Its non-foil price is $4.99, the foil is $10.00, and the Promo is at $9.36. Keep in mind that this is already seeing play in both Modern and Legacy, so bolstering play in Pioneer will surely raise its value. This can be used in Sram, Boros, and White Weenie to bolster up speed plays. Those decks alone make up 14% of the meta, and White Weenies reigning as king of the hill right now at 9%.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eidolon of Countless Battles

There are cards that would benefit from this seeing more play, and we will dive down the rabbit hole a bit further. Eidolon of Countless Battles has been one that could be used as a potential game-ender with Sigarda’s Aid out on the board. In White Weenie, you could flash this in turn 4 on your attack phase to do some serious damage pending creature and enchantment count. Or you could use it defensively if you know there is a heavy creature threat you could eliminate by flashing this in onto a creature you control. This is just one card reference, but it is an intriguing one!

Thinking For Yourself And Closing statements

In closing (as with all previous articles) keep a lookout for one to three drops that will complement the format. Do not let the critics persuade your judgment on your picks, even if it seems out of the box a bit. I have been pounded by the “experts” on certain picks in the past, but only time will tell who is right. Example being Agent of Treachery, I was told it was a trash heap when it was 30 cents.

I was also told to stop speculating on cards because of how bad of a pick that was, and that is putting it lightly. Fast forward and now it not only popped but got the banhammer. Some of these might not pop, but the potential is surely there. You be the critic and if you agree, go pick you up some copies of these gems while the prices are a steal! Thanks again for the read and I will return with some more Pioneer cards next time!

Underestimation Escalation: Umezawa’s Jitte

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There are many old sayings about plans going awry. Even when it seems like everything lines up perfectly, there's always a chance for something to go wrong. Throw in a global health crisis, and everything goes out the window. The shutdown seemed like the perfect time to run another banlist test.

It's been over a year since my last banlist test. It turns out that lengthy time commitments get harder to keep the deeper you go into adulting. However, I had thought that quarantine would be the perfect time to start another one. More time on everyone's hands we could knock this test out quickly.

That didn't happen, because the pandemic is truly a force of chaos. Previous tests took 3-4 months to complete. It's been almost five months since this one started, and I have less than 1/3 of the data. By now, my test decks are out of date, and I've learned enough to know that I misunderstood my test card, Umezawa's Jitte, at the outset. Thus, I'm going to have to throw out the data and start over at some point. But we still have some insights to cover.

Background

It's a stark reminder of how long I've been in this game when I type that Kamigawa Block Constructed was the second PTQ season I participated in. That was 15 years ago; I was such a wee lad. And as a result, most readers won't remember Jitte's heyday. I barely do. So, time for a history lesson.

Kamigawa Block Constructed was a dipolar format. To be competitive, you either played Gifts Ungiven or Umezawa's Jitte. The first pole, Gifts, was a combo-control deck. It used Gifts to find Hana Kami, two reanimation spells, and a payoff card to set up endless loops of Kagemaro, First to Suffer against aggro and Cranial Extraction against everything else. Gifts was generally considered the top deck, though not uncontested, and I also remember the lists being very similar.

The most common Jitte deck was White Weenie (which I played), but Jitte decks ran the full spectrum. There were midrange red decks with Godo, Bandit Warlord, Simic tempo-control decks, various black aggro decks, you name it. They all played Jitte. This was not just because Jitte was that good, but because you needed your own Jitte to answer opposing ones: the old legend rule said that a second copy of a legendary permanent from either player destroyed the first, so the best way to answer opposing Jittes was to resolve your own.

Later On

After that, Jitte was fairly omnipresent, though never dominating. It stuck around throughout its Standard run, and saw considerable Extended play. However, it was never as popular as in Block. This was primarily due to overshadowing from Tron in Standard and then Loam decks in Extended. That said, it remained viable until the end of legality.

Meanwhile, Jitte has been an inconsistent part of Legacy. At the start, Legacy was mainly combo decks and Landstill. Jitte saw some play, but proved very niche. When Delver was printed, Jitte suddenly gained traction. Since then, its stock has risen and fallen, but Death & Taxes always maindecks one and most creature decks have a couple in their 75. Remembering this long history, Wizards put Jitte on Modern's initial banlist.

Hypothesis

Thus, the question of Modern viability. Jitte's been banned nine years, and Magic's changed a lot. Creatures are significantly better and the overall power level is much higher. Size up Jitte against Oko and there's little comparison, or so the argument goes. The argument for unbanning says that Jitte's time has passed. Getting Jitte online requires four mana and an attack, not to mention a removal dodge along the way. You then have three options that are a bit mediocre, making it inefficient and underpowered by modern standards. And so every time there's a list of unbannable cards, Jitte comes up either as part of the list or in subsequent discussion.

Meanwhile, there are dinosaurs like me remembering how warping Jitte was back in Standard and being very nervous that Jitte doesn't destroy Jitte anymore. Games always revolved around the Jitte, and barring very bad variance, whoever had their Jitte online longer always won. I'm also always thinking about Legacy, where Jitte is critical for Death & Taxes. It's the only hope of victory against Elves (especially game 1), and very strong in every creature matchup. Again, if you have active Jitte for a few turns, it will take some very poor luck to lose. Or lots of True-Name Nemesis. Which makes Jitte mirrors some of the most frustrating games I've ever played.

Thus, I set out to find out if Modern can handle Jitte. My assumption, as always, was that adding Jitte to Death & Taxes would have no effect on the win percentages. I tested against Humans, a Counters Company variant, Burn, Bant Snow control, and Ad Nauseam, as this was coming together in early March. As mentioned, I didn't get far enough in my testing to fully evaluate my hypothesis. But I did play enough to become more skeptical of Jitte's unban potential in Modern.

Deck of Not-So-Choice

The first thing I learned was that I'd made a mistake in test platform. My policy's always been to play the banned card in (as close to) the deck that got them banned. However, that doesn't apply to Jitte, since it was a speculative ban and has never been Modern legal. I had to instead fall back on my experience with the card. That meant Legacy Death & Taxes, and since I've worked on that deck in Modern too, it seemed like a perfect fit.

Death & Taxes, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Giver of Runes
1 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Flickerwisp
3 Blade Splicer
3 Restoration Angel

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial
1 Batterskull
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Sword of Fire and Ice

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Ghost Quarter
4 Field of Ruin
4 Horizon Canopy
10 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

2 Kor Firewalker
2 Rest in Peace
2 Winds of Abandon
2 Leonin Relic-Warder
2 Mirran Crusader
2 Phyrexian Revoker
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Celestial Purge

The control deck had Jitte switched for Sword of Light and Shadow. I choose this deck because it was very similar to the last time I'd played D&T in Modern.

An additional benefit was that I'd be playing Jitte as part of a Stoneforge package. Normally I play my test card as a four-of because it's the whole point of the exercise, but having Jitte be tutorable meant that I really had five copies. Besides, I figured that Jitte would primarily be played as a Stoneforge target, which meant that this test would be more indicative of a real-world scenairo. On paper, it was perfect.

Better Option

In a sense, I was correct, and Jitte was a great Stoneforge target. The problem was that I ended up tutoring for Jitte most of the time, and not just because it was the testing target. The situations where it was as or more relevant than other options were unexpectedly common. However, the main problem was that I actually feel that treating it just as a tutor target actually nerfed Jitte. I had forgotten how powerful Jitte was in the right matchups, and particularly early Jittes. I should have played more copies.

Speed-readers will see the next section title and correctly deduce that Jitte was very relevant in creature matchups. There, the earlier Jitte came out, the better it was. I only had a few games where I equipped Jitte on turn three, because I only played one. I won every time, and the wins were absurdly one-sided. In the future, I need to test Jitte in a more raw form, which means I will need to play at least three, and probably four. I'm thinking a one-drop-heavy deck to maximize the odds of early activation, but I'm not sure. Replacing Humans's Reflector Mage with Jitte has shown some promise, though Prowess and Goblins are also on the table.

Creature Breaker

So, Jitte is still backbreaking in the creature matchups. It gets more overwhelming the earlier it resolves. I was prioritizing finding Jitte more and more as testing went on, and started mulliganing aggressively for Mystic, especially against Humans, which is the matchup I played the most. And my opponent agreed with me. To the point that we spent an inordinate amount of time debating the merits of sideboarding in Collector Ouphe in addition to Deputy of Detention to answer Jitte.

Normally, D&T is the control deck vs. Humans, and it's tough. Humans can go very tall, very quickly, and that's overwhelming. When that doesn't happen, it's a close game, requiring D&T to be judicious with its Path to Exiles and Flickerwisps. Jitte changed the dynamic. With that card out, unless Humans went tall quickly with Thalia's Lieutenant, Jitte would gradually smother Humans. It wasn't that the initial impact was overwhelming, but how things changed over time.

Once Jitte has counters on it, combat becomes a nightmare for the opponent. Jitte can only pump the equipped creature, but it can shrink any creature. It's often wrong to pick off the one-toughness creatures because it's better to block a stronger one and then shrink it so your creature survives. This makes combat math very hard for opponents. And if they don't force the issue, it just gets worse as the counters start piling up.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben was a critical card for D&T because of first strike. It was right to attack Thalia into bigger creatures because it charges the Jitte before regular damage, letting you finish off the creature before Thalia was harmed. And if they didn't block, I could just stockpile counters. Or pump my creature to win the race. The matchup had become about Jitte, just as it had in Block and does in Legacy.

Toolbox, Too

Against Counters, the effect was still present, though less pronounced. As a creature deck with mana dorks, Counters Company can win too quickly for D&T to do anything. When that doesn't happen, Jitte becomes a chainsaw, since so many creatures are x/2 or smaller. This was tempered by Counters having tutors to find Reclamation Sage, but doing so pulled attention from the Rest in Peaces and Phyrexian Revokers that were keeping the combos down in the first place. I don't know how this matchup would have played out, but I do know that the dynamic had been shifted as a result of Jitte.

Then, There's Burn

The Burn matchup was also affected, but more subtly. Jitte was also good here, but mostly because gaining life is good. D&T's creatures match or beat Burn's straight up anyway, so Jitte killing them is irrelevant. Pumping creatures to shorten the clock is also good, but that was marginal at best. It's better to just sandbag the counters to gain life as necessary.

The question then becomes if that's better than Batterskull, and I think the answer's mostly no. Skull's attacks actively shift the game away from Burn, while Jitte is more of a sandbag. The only time Jitte's better is against Skullcrack since you can gain life in response, which does come up. I'm not sure how this would have gone.

Bant was Beaten

The most surprising result was against Bant Snow. Jitte is normally just a pump spell against control, and useful mostly as a "combo kill" with Mirran Crusader in Legacy. Sometimes you get to pick off Monastery Mentor, but that's rare. However, Bant relies heavily on Ice-Fang Coatl in creature matchups. A single hit from Jitte answers two Coatls, and that put a huge amount of red-zone pressure on Bant.

Normally, Bant just ignores equipment and focuses on creatures, but that wasn't possible here. The control player lamented that he often had to use Teferi, Time Raveler on an equipment rather than a creature as he fell behind. Otherwise, he'd never have any non-planeswalker threats on the board, and it wouldn't matter how big those got, as a single charged Jitte could kill them. Even Uro wasn't safe, because Jitte pumps right through it without costing a card. I expected Jitte to be good because I knew about the Coatl problem. I didn't think my opponent would end up regarding it as an existential threat.

Combo Question

I tested against Ad Nauseam the least, but Jitte didn't seem to be having an effect. With the adoption of Thassa's Oracle, life is basically irrelevant against that deck, and they don't need creatures on the field to win. Thus, the only relevant text was the +2/+2, which helps race. And Batterskull is more efficient if that's all Jitte's doing, since it's a creature too. Given how the Counters matchup went, I think that Jitte could be relevant against Storm, but I can't say for certain.

Bottom Line

Umezawa's Jitte is definitely Modern-playable. There's a joke that Deathrite Shaman is actually a one-mana planeswalker thanks to all its abilities. I think Jitte is in the same boat. It's a four-mana planeswalker, with abilities that are more relevant than I thought. It has a planeswalker-like effect of gradually building an overwhelming amount of virtual and real card advantage until it overtakes the opponent. Unlike real walkers, after all, Jitte activates multiple times per turn and at instant speed. Two mana to cast (or Stoneforge in) and then two mana to equip is not that bad of a rate for the versatility that Jitte actually provides.

While creatures are certainly better now than in 2005, they're not so much better that -2/-2 or +4/+4 are irrelevant. Also, the March metagame was relatively slow and cared about card advantage (relative to Modern's norm), giving Jitte the time to really build value. I thought that Jitte's power would be limited to the aggressive matchups, but it had a wider net than anticipated. How this might translate into real Modern I don't know. I do know that dismissing this card is wrong. It's still powerful, and that fact is a testament to how busted it was originally.

Never Assume

As I'm writing this article Sunday night 7/27, four of MTGGoldfish's list of most played Modern creatures die cleanly to Jitte's -1/-1 ability off a single charge. They are Lurrus of the Dream-Den, Ice-Fang Coatl, Plague Engineer, and Snapcaster Mage. Walking Ballista, Monastery Swiftspear, and Scavenging Ooze can also die under some conditions. Thought Knot-Seer, Uro, and Wurmcoil Engine round out the list, and they'll die in combat to a double pump.

I didn't answer the question of Jitte being unbannable. I do think I can put to bet any question of it being Modern playable. Don't underestimate Umezawa's Jitte! Still, the question remains... can it come off?

Double Masters: Are Boosters Worth Opening?

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We are in the thick of Double Masters spoiler season, and so far my social media feed is giving the set mixed reviews. When spoilers first started, Wizards chose to led with some fairly underwhelming reprints—this introduced the set starting on the wrong foot, in a sense. Since then, we have seen some fairly impressive reprints with really nice artwork.

Is it enough to incentivize buying? Should you purchase and crack sealed packs of this set? Let’s take a look at the numbers!

The Rares

A standard booster pack of Double Masters will yield you two rares/mythic rares! Double the flavor, double the fun! So what do the rares look like in this set?

Well, as of Sunday, July 27th the average rare in Double Masters is worth $3.78 (70 rares spoiled so far). The most valuable is Exploration, currently worth $24 and change. Bringing up the rear is the rare I’m most likely to open, Sphinx Summoner (did we really need a reprint of this card?).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exploration
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphinx Summoner

The set has a total of 121 rares, so there are still 41 to be spoiled as of this article’s writing. But, judging from past experience, I don’t expect the average rare value to deviate too much—there’s enough data already so that a surprise outlier wouldn’t shift the mean all that much.

So, with this data in hand, if you crack open two rares (no mythics) in Double Masters booster pack, you’re going to see $7.56 in value. Consider this: on TCGplayer, the cheapest sealed booster packs for preorder are selling for $14.73. That seems like awful value, especially considering the fact that the average rare value is certainly going to drop over the next couple weeks, even if the print run is tiny. Players are going to rush out to sell the cards they open to recoup costs and we’ll see some weak buylists in the near future.

So does that mean this set is a bust? Not yet! Let’s examine the mythic rares to see if they salvage this set’s EV!

The Mythic Rares

So far, 25 mythic rares have been spoiled out of a total 40. Not surprisingly, the mythic list is far more exciting and flashy than the rare list. The headliners include favorites such as Force of Will ($100), Mana Crypt ($120), and Jace, the Mind Sculptor ($59). These have each been reprinted multiple times, yet they seem to cling to their high price tag. I don’t even know if Big Jace aka Jace 2.0 sees much constructed play anymore. Yet, I would still be delighted to open one in a Double Masters booster!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor
There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Crypt

The average value of the mythic rares spoiled so far is $30.85. So far, most of the mythics spoiled would make cracking open your Double Masters pack worthwhile. If we assume you open one rare and one mythic, and your rare is worth $3.78 on average, then you need your mythic to be worth a little over $10 to break even on the booster pack (besides uncommons and foils…more on that later).

Of the 25 spoiled mythics, only 6 of them don’t crack the $10 mark. Arcum Dagsson is the first mythic to miss, at $7.63. Following this is Vengevine, Breya, Etherium Shaper, Voice of Resurgence, Geist of Saint Traft, and finally Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain, which has no business being a mythic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain

Now, I’m not sure about the frequency at which mythic rares will appear in boosters. In a normal set, you open a mythic rare with approximately 1:6 odds. So for the sake of this calculation, I’ll assume similar for Double Masters, only that you have two chances at a mythic instead of one in each pack! So if we apply the 1:6 odds, the average rare/mythic slot is worth $8.29. Doubling that, we have $16.58 of value in each booster pack. Comparing this to the going market price for boosters, it looks like cracking open packs is suddenly a worthwhile proposition!

But hold your horses! There are two more points I need to make before rounding out my final judgment.

Commons, Uncommons, and Foils

First, we need to acknowledge that this set has a couple of money uncommons and commons as well. Of the 18 uncommons to be spoiled so far, four are worth over a buck. Manamorphose leads the pack, followed by Mishra's Bauble and repeat reprint Path to Exile.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Manamorphose

The last card worth at least a buck at uncommon (so far) is Dread Return. These will most definitely drop in price as more product is opened, but it’s good to know that you may be able to buylist an uncommon or two right out the gate.

You also have the tron lands and Expedition Map at common. This will make the draft experience really cool (when was the last time you could assemble Tron in limited?!) but it will also give you a tiny bit of value from your average common.

Then there are the foils: two per booster pack! Those foils could be any rarity from common through mythic rare. This certainly adds a difficult-to-quantify value to each booster pack. But it’s worth noting that Masters set foils typically don’t carry much premium relative to their non-foil counterparts. Let’s call this a “cherry on top” of the value sundae, which this is shaping up to be. But there’s one last detail that needs to be emphasized before we start buying out the internet of Double Masters packs.

The Fine Print

It’s time for me to come clean: all the prices I referenced are from MTG Stocks, which in turn takes pricing from TCGplayer’s average price. These values are not a reflection of what the cards are selling for, though they’re frequently close. These values are also effectively a “retail” price—if you sell copies of these cards, you will not be netting these dollar amounts. There are fees, shipping, and general market competition that will result in a lower net for your sales.

Therefore, while you may break even on average by buying a booster of Double Masters and trading singles at today’s TCGplayer pricing, chances are you won’t be so fortunate two weeks into the set’s release. As players rush to sell the valuable cards they opened, pricing will momentarily drop. At that point, you will be losing money on an average, per-booster basis.

Do not despair! This is typical for new sets—and especially for reprint sets! If one could profit simply by cracking boosters and selling singles, then boosters would be in higher demand. That higher demand would drive booster prices upward until the point where that pack-opening arbitrage was no longer a possibility. It’s how this market works, and Double Masters is no exception.

Wrapping It Up

Taking all the data into account thus far, I must say I’m not as disappointed in Double Masters as my social media feed appears to be. I’ll admit I was a bit disappointed by the first couple spoilers, but things have improved dramatically since then. I’m not a big gambler, but there’s a good chance I’ll crack open a few boosters of this set to try my luck—there’s enough value in the set to make it worth a shot.

Now, one thing I didn’t go anywhere near in this week’s article is the VIP Booster value. According to Wizards’ site (which admittedly has been adjusted multiple times), each VIP Edition booster contains 33 cards and 2 foil tokens: 2 foil borderless cards, 2 foil rare/mythic rares, 8 foil uncommons, 9 foil commons, 10 full-art basic lands, 2 foil full-art basic lands, and 2 foil tokens.

The high-dollar foil borderless cards will be worth a lot of money, but I’m not sure if the regular foils will be worth anything more than their nonfoil counterparts. These will be gambles for the high rollers of the Magic community—crack open a foil borderless Force of Will or Mana Crypt and you’ll be riding high. But I have to imagine the average value of these will be well below the $100 price tag.

I also didn’t talk about the Box Toppers, yet another way of receiving value when purchasing Double Masters product.

It seems Wizards pulled out all the stops for this set, making it a highly anticipated, if not somewhat complicated premium set (what cards come in what product again?). I anticipate the Double Masters release will be a big success based on spoilers so far—there’s a good balance of value and desirable reprints. Two rares/mythics per pack also doubles your chances at opening value and should reduce the amount of time you feel awful by opening a $0.10 rare in a $10 booster pack. That alone convinces me to roll the dice a couple times on this unprecedented set!

Exploring Delirium Delver with Stormwing Entity

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A trend I'm seeing in the published results from July is a marked uptick in spell-based aggro-control strategies. Most of those are of the UR Prowess variety, but plenty of Delver of Secrets decks are making the rounds, too. We'll cover those more academically next week. Today, I'd like to unveil the build I'm currently working on, which reworks Stormwing Temur Delver around Traverse the Ulvenwald.

On June 30, TUBBYBATMAN scored a 5-0 with a Temur Delver list almost identical to the Stormwing list I'd posted a week prior. He'd changed the two flex spots, and cut a pair of Opts for Flame Slashes. Finally, Mutagenic Growth was cut for Blossoming Defense.

While I remain skeptical of the Muta swap, I hear dude on snipping the Opts. These decks certainly walk a fine line when it comes to interacting versus cantripping, and mustn't spend too much time treading water; at their bests, our cantrips should fuel our gameplans, not overshadow them. I may have overestimated Stormwing's vulnerability without instant-speed cantrips protecting it at all times; many Modern decks don't run 4 Lightning Bolt.

Tracking down TUBBYBATMAN to pick his brain also led me to his latest Temur Delver build, which maxes out on both Stormwing Entity and Traverse the Ulvenwald. A few quick games with the list and I was hooked on the duo's incredible synergy. I've spent the last week working on such a list.

I Get Delirious... Again

Traverse the Ulvenwald grabbed my attention the day it was spoiled, revealing itself to work exactly the same way as my all-time favorite creature, Tarmogoyf. I'd go on to feature the sorcery in different aggro-control builds and finally slot it into Temur Delver, yielding a build I was very confident in and took down a PPTQ with. When Gitaxian Probe was banned, I turned to Traverse to save the shell, a task that proved too demanding for the humble spell—by which I mean the deck's threat suite had become too graveyard-centric for such a plan to work in Modern.

"Traverse for Stormwing"

Enter Stormwing Entity, a creature that's wonderful alongside Traverse as well as totally grave-independent; no Rest in Peace will shoot down this duck. Entity is a sweet creature to Traverse for because the act of doing so fulfils its condition, essentially turning every delirious Traverse into a three-mana Stormwing.

So is the creature worth three mana? Absolutely, just as Tarmogoyf is—er, was. I mean, who are we kidding? Traverse Shadow is all about three-mana Goyf, even post-Push. But a huge benefit of grabbing Stormwing instead is its "scry 2" clause. In many of my games, Traverse-Stormwing sets up more cantrips which lead to more Traversing, creating a chain of sorts.

Of course, running Traverse means abandoning the Hooting Mandrills-Thought Scour package, which cannibalizes delirium. But I think such a move could be well worth points against graveyard hate, as well as the option of better abusing the graveyard in lieu of any.

Delirium Delver, Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Stormwing Entity
1 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Brazen Borrower

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

4 Manamorphose
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Tarfire
3 Stubborn Denial
1 Mutagenic Growth
1 Blitz of the Thunder Raptor

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
1 Spite of Mogis

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Feed the Clan
2 Mana Leak
2 Veil of Summer
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Klothys, God of Destiny
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Ancient Grudge

U Trippin... Slow

Allow me a moment to extoll the virtues of Mishra's Bauble. In my first Stormwing Delver build, I omitted the artifact, fearful of running too many non-instants or sorceries lest I'd have trouble powering out the bird. But Bauble and Stormwing actually play very nice together.

For one, the issue of having Baubles and needing to pump out a Stormwing almost never occurs, as Bauble freely cycles into a new card. Sure, we'll have to wait until next turn to have a go at Stormwing, but we tend to have other things to do with our mana on such a low land count.

Then there's Bauble's palpable synergy with Stormwing. As it does with Delver of Secrets, which Bauble helps flip when the two are paired, the trinket is actually great alongside Entity. Cast with Stormwing in play, Bauble provides a free prowess trigger, as the many new jacks on UR Prowess know all too well. But its most attractive dimension is setting up a pseudo-Preordain. Stormwing comes down to scry 2, and Bauble is free to fire off looking at the opponent's top card, only to draw a stacked Denial or Bolt for the opponent's turn. Or if we really need a specific instant and fail to see it with Stormwing, we can bottom-bottom and have one more chance to draw it. Just like the real thing!

Of course, Bauble is all but a necessity in decks built around quickly reaching delirium. It's not uncommon for us to find ourselves with three card types on turn three, but lack the fourth, be it sorcery or creature. Bauble, and also Tarfire, alleviate this pressure.

More Than a Flex

When it comes to one-ofs and bullets in general, I think this deck is poised to take advantage of a wealth of options. Between Serum, Bauble, and Traverse-chaining Entities, we have access to plenty of library manipulation, making it quite achievable to find niche answers as needed.

Flex Spots

1 Spite of Mogis
1 Blitz of the Thunder Raptor
1 Mutagenic Growth

Spite and Blitz serve to remove big creatures in the late-game. Both have their benefits: Spite costs one, scries one, and adds a sorcery to the graveyard; Blitz hits planeswalkers, removes pesky recursive creatures, and fires at instant speed. At first, I preferred Spite alongside Stormwing specifically, since it's meant to be cast in the main phase and therefore lends itself to reducing the creature's cost. But the ability to grow Stormwing with Blitz in response to an enemy Bolt is also relevant. As of now, I like a split of these to supplement the removal suite of 4 Bolt, 3 Tarfire.

Mutagenic Growth is a holdover from my original Stormwing Delver build. While it was phenomenal with Hooting Mandrills, it's still great with Stormwing and Goyf, and I really like the ability to dig for it with a landed Stormwing and a Serum, Manamorphose, or Bauble to beat Bolts.

I definitely think a fourth Tarfire or Stubborn can be run in these slots; in fact, I started with full sets of each. But I found them a little situational for game 1, where Tarfire would clog against creature decks and Stubborn floundered without a beater in play. Compared with Stormwing, Mandrills is a lot easier to slide out on turn two, especially with Denial backup, in Traverse-less Thought Scour builds.

Traverse Bullets

1 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Brazen Borrower

Some early runs with the deck made me wonder if we couldn't support one Hooting Mandrills naturally, meaning without Thought Scour. Sure, it eats delirium, but a lot of the time that turn two Mandrills with Denial backup will just win the game. Besides, having just one lets us Traverse for and then cast it if we're light on mana or want to hold up interaction, a line I've employed multiple times so far. Snapcaster often functions as a Demonic Tutor of sorts, and since it can be scooped up by Traverse, having one in the deck gives us massive utility in the mid-game... especially alongside the slew of one-ofs we already run and can flash back!

I'd call Borrower the most off-the-wall of these options, and will admit that so far in my testing, it hasn't been superb; on just 16 lands, we are far from optimized to wield the Faerie as a primary plan, unlike other Temur Delver shells. What Borrower does for us, though, is insulate against a range of random strategies in Modern's lower tiers that can nonetheless show up and ruin our game 1: prison decks, enchantment-based combos, etc. Not to mention big planeswalkers or huge creatures. It just outs anything. While Borrower isn't much of a head-turner on its own, having a two-mana bounce effect to search with Traverse makes the sorcery that much more pliable.

Flipping the Script

I'll say this: Stormwing Entity has me more excited about actually playing Modern than I have been in quite a while. The last deck I built that really jived with me, or so I felt, was Six Shadow, which barely lasted a month before some bans neutered it. The cards I'm throwing around now feel decidedly safe on that front, and are a blast to cast; the question remains whether I can cobble together a mix that's consistently beating the top decks. When the work is enjoyable, though, anything is possible! Join me next week for an exposé on the other ways Delver is making its comeback this month.

Double Masters: Initial Spoilers

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Well, here we are, yet another spoiler season already! We've been seeing a stream of Double Masters previews coming out, and if I'm being honest, I'm not sure how I personally feel about the set. I think with the pandemic, a ton of Magic products all coming out at once, and a hefty price tag, I'm suffering from some fatigue. That's not to say I'm not at least a little excited about the spoilers and their financial implications though! It's hard to not be interested when they've announced some great reprints and plenty of alternate art box toppers.

Not to mention when they bring back some of my favorite old school Magic artists. We'll talk more about these Mark Tedin pieces in a minute.

According to Wizards' announcement, Double Masters releases on August 7, 2020. There are 332 cards in the set, 24 packs per booster box, 15-card booster packs with two rares and two foil cards (which can also be rares), two non-foil borderless showcase box topper cards are included in each booster box, and they will be available in the following languages: English, French, German, Simplified Chinese, and Japanese.

There will also be a new VIP Edition of Double Masters, which are packs of 33 cards plus 2 foil tokens that feature: 2 foil borderless cards (only found in the VIP edition), 2 foil rares/mythic rares, 8 foil uncommons, 9 foil commons, 10 full-art basic lands (only found in VIP edition, 2 of each basic), 2 foil full-art basic lands (only found in VIP edition, 2 randomly selected from among the 10 options), and 2 foil tokens (only found in VIP edition, token on both sides). The regular Double Masters packs seem to be pre-orderable most places for around $15, while the Vip Edition packs are preordering for around $100.

There has been some drama on Twitter lately due to the fact that Wizards accidentally erred in their original description of the contents of the 2 foil borderless cards. Originally, consumers were led to believe they would all be rares or mythics from the set, but in actuality eight of the possible cards are "popular, powerful cards found at other rarities in the set" such as Expedition Map and Urza's Mine. At $100 a pack, I can understand some of the disappointment, but I'm still excited about these "popular, powerful cards" (as we'll talk about in just a bit).

VIP Edition Expedition Map

That's enough introduction! Let's take a look at 5 of the Double Masters reprints I'm most excited about and talk about their financial implications! After that, I'll talk a little bit about a few of the duds from the set that I would be incredibly bummed out to open if I were to be opening these packs.

Karn Liberated

One reprint that's already had some recent reprintings that I'm still excited about is Karn Liberated. Partly because the price has still been fairly high for its printings and partly because I adore the new Mark Tedin art for the borderless, VIP Edition of the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Even with the reprintings, we can see that Karn has often been selling in the $30-$50 range for the past year or so, which indicates that there is plenty of demand for the card. It's always been a mythic and sees play in various formats. Players seem to be pretty passionate about the card, and after an initial dip, I wouldn't be surprised if the card stayed right around the same price it's been for a while now.

But what about the VIP Edition, with new art by Mark Tedin?

People seem to be split on the art (I for one, adore it) but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it eventually ended up passing the 90-100 dollar mark. Especially since Mark Tedin did new art for the Tron Lands that form a panorama with it - which we're going to look at next.

The Tron Lands

I think it's really cool that Urza's Mine, Urza's Power Plant, and Urza's Tower are going to be in the set at common, along with Expedition Map. Because of the timing of the release, I doubt I'll get a chance to draft this set but if I do I can only imagine getting to assemble Tron in a draft environment would feel very cool. These commons will always be worth pulling out of your bulk bin, but what's more financially interesting is the VIP Edition versions with Mark Tedin art:

As you can see, they match the new Karn Liberated art and form a panorama with it when arranged side by side. These special versions of the lands feature a rare marking instead of the common symbol. I've noticed people on Twitter being upset by this and complaining about commons getting the special treatment, but I'm actually pretty excited because these are, for the most part, all looking to be powerful, often played cards which I imagine will still command fairly high price points.

I mean, look at the Kaladesh Inventions Ornithopter. Ornithopter has a ton of printings, is played less than Expedition Map and the Tron lands, and it's Invention printing still manages to hold a $30-$50 price tag. Looking at the spoilers so far, opening one of these as one of your borderless VIP Edition cards doesn't look like too bad of an option.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Jace, the Mind Sculptor is one of Magic's most famous cards, being touted as one of the most powerful Legacy staples for years as well as being banned in Modern up until 2018. It went from not having many printings at all to getting several in rapid succession, adding one more to the pile with Double Masters. While it may not hold the power level that it once did, Jace is still a very powerful card and a sought after mythic. Even the Eternal Masters version has continued to hold a premium price point.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

I feel like this printing will follow suit, and I would recommend trying to trade into them right at release when the price should dip, and holding onto them for a while. Jace is also getting the borderless VIP Edition treatment, which is almost guaranteed to continue to hold at a premium.

Exploration

As I'm writing this article, I'm realizing a trend: all of the spoilers I'm excited about are also being reprinted with borderless VIP Edition art. Exploration is another card I've been thinking really deserved a reprint, and I wasn't very surprised to see it spoiled.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exploration

Exploration is a super powerful card for ramp strategies and has only seen printings in Urza's Saga and Conspiracy. With both Legacy Lands players packing full playsets and green EDH players needing copies, I think this is a much-needed reprint with an absolutely gorgeous VIP printing. I don't even play this card and I'm going to try to at least trade into one copy of the Mark Poole art, it's just so pretty.

I'll be aggressively trading for the regular printing at around the $20 mark or below if I can, and wouldn't be surprised if it maintained a close to $30+ price tag moving forward. I'm not confident enough to try to predict how expensive the VIP printing will be, but I don't think there's any way it doesn't maintain a significantly higher price than the other printings.

Noble Hierarch

Noble Hierarch is one of my favorite cards of all time. It was in the first competitive deck I ever played and a huge part of my first ever Grand Prix experience. At one point I co-owned a Judge Promo with one of my best friends (he was something like $10 short when he spotted it for a steal at a booth), and we ended up selling it for a lot more than he had originally bought it. This was my first Magic finance experience, silly as it was, and since then Noble's price has plummeted.

However, I'm still super excited about the reprint for several reasons (and yes, one of the big reasons is the VIP Edition art.)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

The original printing hasn't trended near it's peak price in a long time, and I doubt it ever will, but it has still managed to hold around the $20 and up range. It's a very versatile card, showing up in plenty of different Modern and Legacy decks. If you can get these new copies for cheap around release, I don't think picking up a playset or two is a bad idea.

I'm super surprised the gorgeous VIP Edition with art from Greg Staples is only preordering for around the $60 mark.

I've been thinking about un-foiling my Modern Infect deck for competitive play for a while now, and I think I'm going to have to trade into these as quickly as possible for it. I would love to have copies of all the borderless cards in my collection, but I think Noble Hierarch is the one I'm going to be most aggressively seeking out.

A Note on Stinkers

Unfortunately, I don't think there's any way to print a set where every rare in the set is a slam dunk from a financial perspective. Wizards designs these sets to be drafted, and as such there will always be draft chaff rares that aren't worth anything in any set - but it feels especially bad to open them when you're paying a premium price for the pack you opened them in. While I generally advise staying away from gambling on opening sealed product in general, it's hard to resist when the set is full of really exciting cards.

Still, I would not be happy to open something along the lines of a Cragganwick Cremator, Champion of Lambholt, or Thought Reflection.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Champion of Lambholt

Anyway, that's it for now! I hope you all are having as good of a time watching the spoilers roll out as I am. I hope you're in a place where it's safe to meet up and draft this awesome looking set with your friends, and if not I sincerely hope you're staying safe and will still be able to obtain all the Double Masters goodies you need for your decks and speculation boxes. This is shaping up to be quite an interesting set! The financial market always seems to get extra swingy during a Masters set release, so if you're not already I'd highly recommend using our Trader Tools to help you make sure you're on top of your Magic finance game.

Feel free to stop by and say hi on my Twitch channel or hit me up on Twitter, I'd love to chat with you about Double Masters or anything else Magic related! Take care out there friends, I'll catch you later.

 

Twin’s Alive: Modern Dimir Inverter

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The greatest problem I face as an article writer is finding something to write about. Inspiration is fickle, as motivation can also be. This is made especially difficult by the pandemic choking off my easiest content source: actual Modern tournaments. Without much happening in greater Modern to discuss and limited source material, I find myself struggling at times. Thus, I sometimes must resort to stirring up arguments to find content. If you're ever bored to tears, try kicking over a hornet's nest; you're guaranteed to not be bored anymore.

I know a lot of players, many of whom are reading this now. And some among them can be mined for content with a simple trollish jab. At the end of last week's article, I made a fairly trolly statement of support for bringing back Splinter Twin just to break its stalwarts' hearts. Cue the hornets: I was met with an angry DM complaining about how unfair it is that there are plenty of two-card combos in Modern these days, yet Twin is unavailable. I asked, why not just play one of those? The answer: "They all suck!"

So today we'll look at some of those combos, particularly the one closest to Twin, and examine why they're just not on the UR behemoth's level.

The Reincarnations...

When Twin was banned it threw Modern for a loop. Since then, there have been many attempts to claim Twin's throne. None have succeeded, primarily because Modern isn't constant year-to-year anymore. Decks can no longer simply sit atop the metagame for years, and this is probably a good thing. Decks have to evolve more often now, and each Modern season has been wildly different from the preceding one. I'd argue that Modern is in far better shape as a dynamic format than it was when Twin was always the deck to beat.

And it isn't like Modern is short on combo decks. They're mostly fringe these days, but Storm, Ad Nauseam, and Toolbox combo decks are all viable. However, I know full well that what the Twin stalwarts are looking for are two-card A+B combos. Look at any Toolbox deck, particularly pre-Lurrus of the Dream-Den, and you'll see plenty such combos, from Heliod, Sun-Crowned and Walking Ballista to Spike Feeder and Archangel of Thune to Devoted Druid combo. However, these decks are primarily combo decks, and don't scratch the itch for Twin players looking for an incidental "I Win" combo.

However, those exist too. The most recent addition is Conspicuous Snoop and Boggart Harbinger, which I've already covered.

However, well before that, the first attempt to replace Twin was just to replace Twin with Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker. I remember a number of Twin players at the time desperately holding onto their decks by replacing the banned Twin with Kiki. And it kinda works. Then there's Copycat. Following its emergency banning in Standard, players have tried to make Saheeli Rai and Felidar Guardian a thing in Modern. Which also sort of works.

...Are Flawed

The problem is, as my associate so boldly declared, these decks aren't very good in Modern. I realize that I just linked to fairly lengthy results pages, but the vast majority of said results are MTGO League results, and anything can 5-0 a League. Even Mono-Green Stompy. The real measure of strength is paper success, and that has been very limited. Yes, Snoop doesn't count; it can't have paper results because paper's shut down. Snoop is seeing lots of play online, and even having success. That said, it is also the new kid on the block, and seeing lots of play on the basis of being new and exciting rather than necessarily good. Time will tell if Snoop was just a flavor of the month or the real deal.

As for the other decks, the best example is Copycat. Subject of only the second emergency ban in Magic's history, it has had no measurable impact on Modern. If this be an heir to the mighty Twin, a pale and callow shadow it be at best. And even if that weren't the case, it's not actually a Twin deck. Twin was an interactive deck that played a hybrid control-tempo game and then incidentally won via combo. As they said of Trix, the best control decks have to be combos. There's no room for real win conditions. Copycat and Snoop Goblins are creature decks first and foremost. They have little, if any, interaction. Their success isn't worthy of Twin's name and they don't even act like the legend. Thus, Twin doesn't have a direct lineage in Modern anymore.

One Exception

Or so it appeared. Until players remembered that there is a monster in another format. A monster that closely resembles Twin's combo and gameplan. The monster from Pioneer named Dimir Inverter. I will argue that Dimir Inverter is the closest deck Modern has to Twin, even if the combos work differently. Consider this fairly standard Twin list from its heyday:

UR Twin, Gabriel Fehr (GP Puerto Alegre)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Deceiver Exarch
2 Pestermite
2 Vendilion Clique

Enchantments

4 Splinter Twin

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Dispel
2 Spell Snare
4 Remand
2 Electrolyze
2 Cryptic Command

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
3 Sulfur Falls
2 Desolate Lighthouse
1 Stomping Ground
5 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Grim Lavamancer
3 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
2 Roast
1 Negate
2 Blood Moon
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
2 Keranos, God of Storms

Ah, memories. Now consider Inverter. Incidentally, when I was looking through the available decklists, I discovered that Modern Inverter is a fairly new creation. And it's only in the past month that they've taken a leaf from the Pioneer version. Before June, all the decks seem to have been trying to be pure combo decks with Angel's Grace and Spoils of the Vault. After the switch, there are far more results, and they're clustered together, indicating that embracing Inverter's innate Twinness was a strong call.

Dimir Inverter, wefald (MTGO League 5-0, 7/14)

Creatures

4 Thassa's Oracle
4 Inverter of Truth

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, Wielder of Mysteries

Artifacts

3 Relic of Progenitus

Enchantments

4 Omen of the Sea

Instants

4 Fatal Push
4 Opt
1 Cling to Dust
4 Remand
1 Murderous Cut

Sorceries

3 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Darkslick Shores
4 River of Tears
4 Watery Grave
3 Drowned Catacombs
3 Eldrazi Temple
2 Polluted Delta
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Swamp

Sideboard

3 Aether Gust
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Collective Brutality
1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Flusterstorm
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Spreading Seas

A True Inheritor...

Ignoring the superficial differences in color and combo, the gameplan is the same for both decks. Both Twin and Inverter are interaction-heavy control-combo hybrids playing a tempo game. Twin's is entirely reactive, focusing on counterspells, while Inverter has proactive discard, but their purpose is the same: break up the opponent's gameplan until the combo is assembled. These are primarily interactive decks; they just win via combos, rather than finisher-type creatures like Baneslayer Angel.

Secondly, both decks can treat the combo as incidental. Twin's greatest defense has always been that the combo was an afterthought. The primary route to victory was attrition, tempo, and Bolt-Snap-Bolt. Sideboard games were about being a true control deck, as they often sided out most of the Twins. Inverter plays a similar game, controlling the game and then landing the Inverter of Truth to win the game. Inverter is actually a decent threat on its own, and many games never involve winning via Thassa's Oracle. I actually know of attempts to use Inverter as intended: filling the graveyard with only useful spells, playing Inverter, and winning with a small, but stacked, library.

This is in stark contrast to Copycat decks, which are piles of value creatures, cantrips, and planeswalkers more reminiscent of Ephemerate decks than Twin. Or consider Snoop Goblins, which is just a Goblin deck with the combo added. There are plenty of two card combo decks in Modern, but only one of which share's Twin's genetics. Thus, if you really want to play Twin again, why not pick up Inverter?

...In Another Format

Probably because Inverter is not replicating Twin's success in Modern. Granted, it is fairly new and is picking up more results, but most of those are League 5-0s. Compare Inverter to an established combo like Storm over the same timeframe: far more results, far more impressive tournaments. For some reason, this style of deck just isn't working in Modern. Perhaps the playerbase just isn't there, or maybe it actually isn't good enough.

This is especially strange given that Inverter is king in Pioneer. To the point that it's the default Best Deck. And those actually invested in the format hate it. And is probably the main factor driving players away from Pioneer. I actually started thinking about Modern Inverter with the expectation that Modern would see an influx of players following an Inverter ban last week. Obviously that hasn't happened, but even if it had, the evidence seems to indicate that nothing would have changed regarding Inverter's viability.

Where's the Problem?

While I think the decks are viable and reasonable in Modern, the evidence does back up that "They all suck!" assessment from earlier, at least in comparison to what Twin used to be. The most common explanation I hear is that Modern has moved on. The other answers and threats are so much better now than in Twin's heyday that its style of Magic is simply outclassed. Fatal Push, Assassin's Trophy, and Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath didn't exist back then. This line of thought seems to conveniently ignore that Teferi, Time Raveler and Veil of Summer also didn't exist in 2015.

In Comparison

However, the fact that the answers are better doesn't explain Inverter's lack of success. The counters and discard aren't much better now than in 2015, and those are the only relevant answers to Inverter combo. The combo is creature-based, sure, but happens due to ETB triggers. Removal doesn't matter, and can't break up the combo. Once Inverter empties the library (often helped by Relic of Progenitus), the only thing that matters is resolving Oracle. If that happens, Inverter wins, end of story. It's a far more robust combo than Twin in that sense.

Which adds to the mystery of Inverter's poor Modern performance compared to Pioneer. Yes, there are better answers in Modern, but the answers relevant to Inverter aren't that much better. It's not about removal; it's about preventing the pieces from resolving. There are better counterspells in Modern, but they're played in smaller numbers than in Pioneer. Thoughseizesees extensive Pioneer play as a four-of, and it doesn't in Modern. Inquisition isn't Pioneer legal but Thought Erasure is and sees lots of play. Both formats have the same threat powercreep. It may be true that Modern is more powerful, but it isn't relevantly more powerful to keep out Twin's successor.

The Key

I think the problem is format speed. Pioneer is not a very fast format. Mono-Red is a good deck there, but it's got nothing on Modern Burn or Prowess. Humans regularly kills on turn four, and every combo deck is at least that fast. Inverter can hit on turn three with Eldrazi Temple, setting up a turn four Oracle, but that requires a lot to go right. It's more common to go for the combo on turn five or later in Modern. In Pioneer, there's far more time to get set up, and so this more ponderous combo is more threatening.

Moreover, players can see Inverter coming. This is also true of the other A+B non-Company combos in Modern. To go off requires playing one creature/planeswalker one turn, then the other piece the following turn. That's a clear signal that you're in danger. That was never the case with Twin. Exarch and Pestermite got flashed in on end-step for a surprise win. I've been over this before, but the power of Twin was never in the combo. Twin's advantage was being a tempo thief and keeping opponent's off their gameplan via fear. That is missing from every other deck, and that's the real reason they haven't found success.

A Lesson

There are a lot of very powerful and successful decks in Modern. There are some that ape arguably the most successful deck ever. None can match its success because they cannot take advantage of the opponent in the same way. To be successful, they're going to have to find a way on their own merits.

Insider: An In-Depth Look at All the New “Rarities”

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Since Throne of Eldraine, Wizards of the Coast has added a lot of new card variants. We currently have:

  • Regular
  • Foil
  • Showcase
  • Extended Art
  • Borderless
  • Showcase Foil
  • Borderless Foil
  • Extended Art Foil

The biggest challenge currently is that we no longer know exactly how rare any of those given things are. A lot of these new variants were tied in with the new Collector Boosters. Now thanks to WotC, we know what to generally expect from these boosters.

Collector Boosters

So if we look at just the Collector Booster Box with 12 packs per box, it means that each box will provide;

  • 48 foil commons/lands
  • 24 foil uncommons
  • 12 Extended Art Rares/Mythics
  • 24 Foil Extended Art or Regular Foil/Mythics (unfortunately, we currently don't know the exact ratio)
  • 24 showcase commons or uncommons
  • 12 showcase or borderless rares or mythics (again don't know the ratio)
  • 12 foil showcase commons or uncommons or borderless uncommons
  • 12 foil showcase or borderless of any rarity.

For clarity, cards that are labeled as "borderless" have different art on them, whereas, "extended art" cards have the same art as the regular, but with no border. Here is a breakdown of each rarity in each set of these special variants.

It is also important to note that the Collector Booster makeup has changed.

Throne of Eldraine (no pre-made graphic):

Number of Cards: 15 cards and 1 foil token card
Number of Versions: 1
Contents:

  • 1 rare/mythic rare with extended art
  • 1 foil rare/mythic rare
  • 9 foil commons/uncommons
  • 3 special-frame cards (showcase or borderless planeswalkers)
  • 1 ancillary card
  • 1 foil token

I got the following data from Mr. Thomas Vanek regarding some of his stores Collector Booster Breakdowns:

**Unfortunately, I only found data for the Extended Art cards for Ikoria, so please keep in mind the sample size is limited to one set.

Draft Boosters

Thankfully QS has a lot of store owners as members and some were able to give me some great information regarding breakdowns, so a special thank you to Swaga and Mr. Thomas Vanek for the data below:

*Extended Art cards are NOT available in standard draft boosters.

Variant Options

Lastly, it's important that we know how many of any potential option there are from each set to determine just how rare (or not rare) a given version of these new variants might actually be.

Set Breakdowns

Now it gets a bit more complicated because the Collector Boosters makeup changed; we need to look at the data per set, instead of as a whole. I have provided a ton of information in the charts above and because we don't know print run sizes between Collector Boosters boxes and Draft Booster boxes, I think it would be unwise to dig too deep regarding specifics. However, I think it's fair to look for some generalizations between the sets and these new variant rarities.

Throne of Eldraine

  • Foil Mythic Showcases are likely rarer than Foil Mythic Borderless.
  • Mythic Showcases are likely rarer than Mythic Borderless
  • Showcase rares are likely a lot more common from Draft Booster Boxes than Showcase Mythics, and the fact that there are only 5 showcase rares to choose from implies that any given one may be more common than you might think.

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths

  • In our data set between 32,544 Draft Booster packs and 600 Collector Booster packs there were only 100 foil mythic borderless and showcase cards. You would need to open about 10 Draft Booster Boxes to get 1 of the 8 potential options. Looking at prices between the two we see a relatively small multiplier between the foil and non foil Market prices.

    • The average multiplier is only a little over 4x as much, despite the fact that these are extremely rare.
    • It is important to note that the Apex cycle had alternate Godzilla card options also available and that those options are likely eating into the demand for the Showcase foils.
      • There is some additional data on the google sheet that shows that the foil Godzilla variants for these mythics was only between 1-2x rarer than the regular Godzilla variant.
    • While there are additional options for the Apex cycle the relatively low multiplier between the foil and non-foil borderless planeswalkers is a bit baffling which averages 3.49x, granted none of these planeswalkers has shown up in any eternal formats, but there are plenty of people who just collect planeswalkers and want each version.
  • While I wish I had a lot more data regarding the extended art variants, the fact that they are only available in Collector Booster packs and while guaranteed 1 nonfoil mythic or rare extended art the fact that there are between 50 and 60 different cards per set that could be pulled in that slot makes me think that any particular one is likely a lot rarer than one would think.

*It's important to note that cards with an * next to them have Godzilla alternate cards and thus are likely considered less of a premium as an extended art card.

  • If we just focus on the Mythic Extended Art vs Regular Art versions we see a multiplier of a little under 2, however, I think it's fair to argue that since the Extended Art variants are only available from Collector Booster packs and Collector Booster packs are a limited print run we will likely see this multiplier climb as the initial first wave of cards from the Collector Boosters dries up. If you were going to speculate on any I would focus on ones that do not have a Godzilla alternate and are desirable by Commander players.

Continued next week...

Valuable Lessons From a Newbie Streamer

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You may or may not have noticed that last week I didn’t have an article published on Quiet Speculation’s site. This is an extremely rare occurrence—in my eight years writing about Magic finance, I probably average 1-2 weeks per year when I don’t produce an article.

There were two key reasons I skipped last week. First, I was traveling on business for my job. This was my first trip in COVID-19 world, and the stress of the trip was slightly higher than normal as a result. I found myself needing to rent a car and drive eight hours to northeastern Pennsylvania, where I stayed for a full week. I had a tough time focusing enough energy on MTG writing during this week.

The second reason was that I wanted to try engaging in Magic in a completely novel way: by live streaming Magic Arena gameplay on Twitch! This is something I’ve always wanted to try, and being alone in a hotel for a full week seemed like the perfect time to test things out!

This week, I’m going to share a few key takeaways I learned while attempting my first ever stream. After all, with a little success, such practice can be monetized—yet another path one could take to make money from Magic!

What Worked

Eager and ready, I fired up Arena last Tuesday night. Chroberry, contributor and editor for Quiet Speculation, gave me some pointers. Our content team pointed me to Streamlabs for setup, a relatively intuitive software with many convenient built-in features to help set up a professional-looking stream.

Since I have been really getting into Arena lately, it seemed like a natural transition to go from avid player to streamer. I figured if I was going to play the game a couple hours a day—especially while traveling for business and having little to do in the evenings—I might as well try generating a following in the process! There’s nothing like killing two birds with one stone, attempting to make a few bucks while doing something I love.

After a couple of false starts, I was up and running! After broadcasting my live streaming status, I immediately had a couple of people join to watch. Before you know it, I was drafting and battling in Standard, talking through all of my picks and plays like the professional streamers do. My audience was modest in size, but highly engaging and I had a blast.

Three hours into the stream, it was time to pack it up and call it a night. I was exhilarated by the experience—I am an extroverted, people-person in general. So being able to once again enjoy Magic while engaging with others in the community (rather than playing online in isolation) really cheered me up. Talking as I played came naturally because I tend to talk out loud while I play anyway!

The successful experience was highly motivating, and I started fantasizing about the potential! Was I onto something here? Would I generate a large enough following/audience to monetize my stream? I had no idea the process would be so simple.

Or was it?

What Didn’t Work

The next day (Wednesday), I found myself once again sitting alone in the hotel in the evening with little to do. Thinking of the successful stream from the night before, I booted up Streamlabs and Arena and started streaming again. This time, I attempted to generate a little more hype by tweeting a couple times in advance, letting followers know my intent to stream that evening.

Two minutes into the process, I realized that Wednesday was not going to bring the same positive experience as Tuesday brought. A friend of mine joined the stream first, and immediately pointed out the poor connectivity. The hotel internet was simply not keeping up with the constant bandwidth draw from both Arena and Streamlabs. We powered through for a little bit, but my video was continuously freezing up and my audio was robot-like.

It didn’t help that I was also communicating through my laptop’s built-in microphone, which contributed to poorer audio quality. A few other folks trickled in, but didn’t stick around. Who could blame them? The stream’s quality was far too poor to host a worthwhile session.

Defeated and deflated, I stopped the stream, tweeted out an apology, and played alone on Arena without an audience.

Valuable Takeaways

It was like A Tale of Two Cities: Tuesday and Wednesday brought “the best of times and the worst of times.” Clearly, this streaming thing wasn’t as easy as it initially seemed.

Throughout the process, I learned many valuable lessons that I want to share here, in case readers are thinking of trying out a stream themselves.

  1. GOOD INTERNET IS KEY!!! – In order to deliver a positive experience for viewers, you must, at a minimum, be able to deliver a quality stream. Without a good internet connection, you have no stream to begin with. No one is going to have the patience to watch a robot-sounding voice talk over gameplay at one frame-per-second frame rate. Hotel internet likely doesn’t cut it!
  2. Leverage Technology – I watch a few Magic streamers regularly and I’m always impressed by the little things that make their stream look well-polished and deliberate. It turns out those features aren’t only available to Twitch partners. Anyone can download Streamlabs for free and implement widgets to help their stream look professional. It takes a little time playing around with the software to find the right features, but it’s well worth it.
  3. Stay Positive – A positive attitude is absolutely critical on so many levels. First, if you’re brand new to streaming and have a couple false starts like I did, don’t be discouraged! I was disappointed I couldn’t stream last Wednesday due to internet issues, but I can always try again! During gameplay, it’s also important to put on a positive game face even in the face of mana screw and a losing streak.
  4. Engage the Community – During my stream, I did my best to respond to the chat whenever I could (it was easy, having only a couple viewers of course). But besides answering viewer questions and making chit chat, I tried to take it one step further by letting viewers pick my next match format. I would say, “The first person to comment can pick whether I play a draft or a Standard draft next.” I believe this audience participation can add a layer of entertainment for viewers, and may motivate them to stick around a little longer to watch the match they asked for. In general, being talkative, explaining picks and plays, and engaging viewers will help build a positive experience for everyone.
  5. Equipment is a “Nice to Have” – I don’t think I’ll ever get to 100 simultaneous viewers with my current setup. Talking through my computer’s speakers and using my computer’s webcam is a recipe for a lower-quality stream. At the same time, they were sufficient to get started. I personally don’t think it’s necessary to invest $100’s in audio/visual equipment right off the bat. Try out a few sessions of streaming first to see if you like it and if you can connect with your viewers before considering a larger investment. Buying expensive equipment and then not making enough money streaming to pay for said equipment is the equivalent of a failed spec.
  6. Have Fun! – If you aren’t having fun with the stream, don’t do it. There are other ways to make money from Magic that it’s not worth stressing out over.

Wrapping It Up

Making money from Magic is the equivalent of having one’s cake and eating it too. You get to enjoy the best game of all time while also making some spare cash to help fund the hobby! Historically, I’ve run this grind via speculation, buying and selling cards, and of course writing weekly articles. Recently I attempted a new avenue: streaming.

My first experience was overall positive, but it wasn’t flawless. Being the scientist, I made many observations and took away some valuable insights throughout the process. This week I wanted to share those key takeaways to transparently share what it’s like attempting a first Twitch stream. Hopefully, this provides you with the information and motivation you need to get off the couch and start streaming yourself! I don’t know how hard it is or how long it takes to monetize a stream, but if you’re playing anyway and have positive energy, you may want to give it a try. The initial investment is minimal, and you never know if you’ll have success without trying!

Oh, and if you want to throw me a follow and watch a future stream of mine, please visit www.Twitch.tv/sigfig8 and throw me a follow. In future streams, I plan on talking Magic finance while I play, answering viewer questions and sharing my latest spec targets.

Happy streaming everyone!

Avatar photo

Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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