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Getting Started in MTG Finance

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Picture this. You're playing a crazy, three-hour game of Commander and the person across from you slams down a Paradox Engine. That person proceeds to combo off–and suddenly you're interested in getting a copy for yourself.

You ask, "Hey, how much was that?" and they respond, "I got it for $12 when it rotated out of Standard." You have $15 in your pocket and decide to go get one of your own, but the tag on the card says $26. What caused this card to spike? Was there an article about it on a website or did someone on YouTube talk about it?

Maybe this is the instigating event that opens the door of MTG finance for you. Whatever your instigating event was, I'm confident that you asked yourself or someone else, "Where do I start?" One way or another, you came to the right place in Quiet Speculation.

MTG finance can be daunting, intimidating, and often times very risky, but it can also be incredibly rewarding. Everyone has their failed specs (I went deep on Summoning Trap when it first came out and I still cry on the inside about it once in a while), and everyone has their success stories (those folks who bought into Arclight Phoenix at less than $3). But where do you start? How do people figure out these cards to speculate on?

Long-Term Speculation

That depends on what you want to speculate on, really. Do you want to spend some money as a longer-term investment for slow, low-risk gains? These are situations when you can literally set it and forget it... cards that you know will increase. A good example of this is the original ABUR dual lands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea
There was an error retrieving a chart for Plateau

Don't just take someone's word for it, though–do some research. In the stock world, they call it due diligence.

Why are these good longer-term investments? Several factors help provide reassurance of stability and growth. Underground Sea is on the Reserved List, so you know it won't be printed again; it's used in almost every blue deck in Legacy/Vintage/Old School; it's a collector's item for some players (who never had the chance to own them in their youth but now have a bit more liquidity in their lives); and finally its financial history shows consistent upward movement.

Plateau hits a lot of those same points, but it's not as popular of a card. In older formats, red-white doesn't fit in as many decks as blue-black, thus Plateau's growth has been slower. However, that doesn't mean it's a bad choice either. Unlimited and Revised versions of less popular dual lands are still a great thing to pick up and let sit in top-loaders or your binder.  You can take what these cards have to offer, and compare that to cards that might be great targets for long-term investments and haven't moved on the graphs yet.

Take As Foretold for example.

There was an error retrieving a chart for As Foretold

Foil cards often have a greater ROI (Return on Investment) because they have a large appeal to casual groups, Commander, and Legacy/Vintage.  Modern is also a format where players love to foil out their decks, but those cards often see a faster spike once the decks start doing well.

As Foretold has an appeal to every format that can play blue, but the biggest attraction comes from Commander and casual decks.  Being able to play cards for free is a huge deal, especially when the only drawback is... well... just waiting to put counters on the card.  It's a cheap mana cost, it's splash-able, Amonkhet didn't rotate out of Standard too long ago so the reprint chance is fairly low, and it has long-term effects for the board state.  As of the writing of this article, you can find foils roughly $20.  This card has great appeal and thus a potential to climb upwards of $40 or 50.

Short-Term Speculation

The other major type of speculation is short-term.

Short-term as a category is a bit broad, as it can mean cards that can be flipped within a day (whether due to random hype from Reddit, winning on camera, or SaffronOlive posting some crazy deck that goes 5-0) or cards you are waiting on for a new set (such as Mox Amber with the War of the Spark hype). If you are looking to turn them around in less than a year, it's probably short-term speculation.

This type of spec often requires a lot more research, confidence (this is important), and watching the market. Following trends is important–good places to do this are on MTGGoldfish, MTGStocks, and TCGplayer. These cards can also spike out of nowhere sometimes, especially if there is hype from Twitter and Reddit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surgical Extraction
There was an error retrieving a chart for Paradox Engine

Both of these cards were set for a gain, due to the fact that they have started to become more popular in their respective formats and they lack reprints.

Surgical Extraction is seeing a ton of play related to the recent Arclight Phoenix decks that have exploded in Modern. It's main-decked by many of them to act as a free card for the Phoenix's ability as well as a way to combat the mirror match. Because of the Phoenix decks, it has also gained popularity in many other decks, as the mana restriction is almost non-existent. Any deck can afford to sideboard Surgical.

Paradox Engine is, as of writing, in 13,707 decks on EDHRec. It's an absolute bomb in Commander and fits a ton of strategies. Being an artifact also gives it the benefit of having no mana restrictions. Who wouldn't want to untap their cards whenever they cast something?  If you missed the hype train for Engine, have no fear, because we can use it to look for other great targets that have seen little to no gain yet.  What else has similar features to Paradox Engine?  I'll give you a few hints... it's an artifact, it was printed in a set recently and is still obtainable, it has an alternate printing that is desirable for Commander and casual collections, and it has an effect that could alter entire games regardless of when it is played and activated.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Planar Bridge

If you guessed Planar Bridge, you're correct!  This card has already started to see gains within the last week or two and will continue to see gains in the coming weeks.  Again, foils are a better target for ROI than non-foils, but non-foils will also see a bit of trending as well.  The greatest appeal towards this card though is the Masterpiece printing.  It's become quite clear that players and collectors alike have a love for the Kaladesh Inventions.  It is only in 5,300 decks on EDHRec, but that number has slowly been going up.  One of the resources we can use to follow trends and buy-outs is the number of suppliers on TCGplayer. Foils and MSP copies are being scooped up fairly fast on all major vendors and TCGPlayer, so this is primed to pop fairly soon.

Conclusion

Looking to the future, we have to assess the resources we have and how we can connect those to what we want to spec on.  The resources to look for these cards are all over the internet, you just have to keep an eye on them. Look for trends, common conversations, similar YouTube videos, constantly being called out in Podcasts, etc., and have faith in your specs. You have to have confidence and believe in your specs for justifiable reasons.  Recently I saw a conversation on Facebook about Mistcaller as tech against graveyard decks like UR Phoenix, Dredge, and various builds of Company. No one knows if it will work until it's tried and tested, but at almost-bulk prices (and under a dollar for foils) while being a few months from rotation... it's something to think about.

In my next few articles, I'll take a closer look at the many variables that can affect our specs, as well as how to prepare for them.  I'll also go a bit more in depth about what it means to invest in safety versus playing with different Risk Factors.  Once we have some specs lined up, we can look at how to obtain them, and the best way to make profits on them.


Thanks, everyone. I'll leave you with a few thoughts of my own for specs and finance.

Pat's Predictions

Cards on my watch list:

  • I already mentioned this one, but Mistcaller is worth watching. It fits in Modern Merfolk and CoCo builds, so foils look pretty nice. You can currently pick foils up at Card Kingdom for $2.49 and there are a handful of cheaper ones on TCG. I expect it to slightly dip at rotation before making its way up again. It wouldn't be surprising if these end up at $5+.
  • I'm not big on Modern Horizons predictions this early in the game, but keep your eyes on Containment Priest, especially the UMA copies. I'm certain it has room to grow, even if it's not printed in Horizons.
  • Arclight Phoenix has made its way into Legacy recently and is shining in the Grixis builds. Those decks are running Dark Ritual into Buried Alive to put three Phoenixes in the yard on turn one and two. Add in a third spell and suddenly you're being hit for 12. Buried Alive was reprinted in UMA and foils can be found for $2.49 and under. Even if the deck doesn't spike them, the gap between the UMA foils and the Odyssey foils is quite large and over time could begin to close.

Slow and Steady: Metagaming against Phoenix

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Modern is vast and diverse enough to make metagaming a frequently terrible idea. However, sometimes it is warranted. With Izzet Phoenix, followed by Dredge, consistently dominating the big tournaments in a way that Modern hasn't seen in years, it makes sense for the first time in a long time to actively target the top decks. How to do that is the question.

Much of the reaction so far has been maindecking Surgical Extraction, which given the tournament results, doesn't appear to be working. I've suggested attacking Phoenix's velocity engine, but that hasn't been widely adopted and doesn't work against Dredge. The search is still on, and today I'll discuss how successful decks are adapting to a Phoenix-filled metagame.

While looking over the GP weekend's decklists, I was both disappointed and hopeful. The disappointment came from a lack of dramatic change from Regionals. Given the available data, I expected players to have caught onto the threat of Phoenix, even if the result was an outlier at the time, and planned ahead. However, there hadn't been any grand changes yet. Instead, I saw incremental adjustments and tweaks. That was less than I hoped for, but still signaled that players were adjusting, and could soon reign in the firebird.

Between a Rock...

First up is the runner-up from Philadelphia. BGx has been struggling for the past year. It's never been bad, but between Dredge returning, hexproof Spirits rising, and then Arclight Phoenix's ascension, Fatal Push has been having a very hard time. BGx and particularly Jund are the best decks around at 1-for-1 trading, but decks have gotten too good at breaking those trades via recursive threats. This is unfortunate because Phoenix decks are vulnerable to being grinded out of threats if they can't swamp opponents. However, Jonathan Orr may have cracked the code.

The Rock, Jonathan Orr (2nd, SCG Philadelphia Open)

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Scavenging Ooze
3 Tireless Tracker
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

Planeswalkers

3 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope

Instants

4 Fatal Push
4 Assassin's Trophy

Sorceries

3 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Collective Brutality
1 Maelstrom Pulse

Lands

4 Blooming Marsh
4 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Field of Ruin
2 Hissing Quagmire
2 Forest
2 Treetop Village
2 Overgrown Tomb

Sideboard

3 Fulminator Mage
2 Collective Brutality
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Nissa, Vital Force
1 Damnation

In a world full of graveyard decks, this is the sideboard I want to see. Orr has multiple one-shot effects to pair with his maindeck hate and Grafdigger's Cage. One-shot effects are great at slowing down graveyard decks, but they're easy to play around. This is especially true if they hit the board and then sit there, like Nihil Spellbomb. It's also critical to pack extra against Dredge, which can quickly recover from a single graveyard purge; it's the second one that actually hurts. And again, that frequent refrain, Surgical Extraction is not Dredge hate. It's fine against Phoenix, but only mediocre against Dredge's multiple targets and threats.

However, the real advantage of Orr's list is more subtle. For some time, Rock lists have been running Kalitas as both incidental hate and a value engine. In a metgame full of recursive threats, the Vampire is also key to making removal matter. Without Kalitas, Push is a card-disadvantageous speed bump. This means that the re-adoption of Maelstrom Pulse is a brilliant decision. Assassin's Trophy largely pushed out Pulse and Abrupt Decay, but having a way to remove multiple Phoenixes or Prized Amalgams with one card, especially around Scavenging Ooze or Kalitas, is invaluable and critical for Rock to catch back up. I imagine that more Rock players will catch on and play more Pulses in the foreseeable future.

...and a Hard Place

A rising option is to simply shut down Phoenix. The deck is very one-dimensional, and is really just a cantrip deck. I've advocated attacking the velocity engine with Eidolon of Rhetoric, but some are taking the more direct approach. Rather than adjust their decks for a Phoenix world, they're grabbing one that negates each of Phoenix's plans cold.

Whir Prison, Louis-Samuel Deltour (2nd, GP Bilbao)

Instants

4 Whir of Invention

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Welding Jar
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Tormod's Crypt
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Damping Sphere
4 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Witchbane Orb
1 Bottled Cloister

Lands

4 Spire of Industry
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Tolaria West
3 Glimmervoid
2 Island
1 Ipnu Rivulet
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Academy Ruins
1 Inventor's Fair

Sideboard

4 Spellskite
3 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
2 Sai, Master Thopterist
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Unmoored Ego
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Torpor Orb

It doesn't matter how many spells are cast if they don't resolve. Chalice of the Void is back and in force.

I've slagged off plenty of decks for being primarily air or dependent on single cards to work, but is all the above and more. Whir Prison is a deck built entirely around Ensnaring Bridge. Chalice of the Void is important too, but it's not the critical piece. The deck will not beat any creature deck without Bridge. Everything either finds, protects Bridge, or is easy to dump from hand to enable Bridge and do nothing otherwise. This prison is far faster to build than any other we've seen, but it's also far more fragile. It's very much a deck built on the assumption that it only has to face certain decks, because it's not going to beat anything outside its narrow attack spectrum.

Some Whir of Invention decks also run the Thopter Foundry/Sword of the Meek combo, but the Top 8 lists consistently stick to looping either Ipnu Rivulet or Pyrite Spellbomb. This initially struck me as odd considering all the graveyard hate running around. But they do play Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas and Sai, Master Thopterist out of the sideboard to compensate. With a game locked up, it's only a matter of time before those alternate win conditions are found.

Alternatively, Amulet...

Whir is the new kid on the block, as far as fighting Phoenix goes. The real success stories have been from big mana decks. Other decks have had decent results, but Amulet Titan, Mono-Green Tron, and to a lesser extent Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle decks have consistently inhabited the Phoenix-heavy Top 8's of the past few months. It makes sense since they're not affected by the types of hate targeted at Phoenix or Dredge and can either ignore their gameplan or organically clean it up. In fact, current Tron lists don't look dramatically different from what was winning last year. On the other hand, the Amulet lists have made subtle but important changes.

Amulet Titan, Matthew Dilks (4th, SCG Philadelphia Open)

Creatures

4 Sakura-Tribe Scout
4 Azuza, Lost but Seeking
4 Primeval Titan
1 Walking Ballista

Artifacts

4 Amulet of Vigor
2 Engineered Explosives
3 Coalition Relic

Instants

4 Summoner's Pact
1 Pact of Negation
1 Primal Command

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

Lands

4 Forest
4 Selesnya Sanctuary
4 Simic Growth Chamber
4 Gemstone Mine
3 Tolaria West
1 Vesuva
1 Sunhome, Fortress of the Legion
1 Slayers' Stronghold
1 Khalni Garden
1 Kabira Crossroads
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Boros Garrison
1 Bojuka Bog

Sideboard

4 Path to Exile
3 Negate
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Chameleon Colossus
1 Hornet Queen
1 Ramunap Excavator
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Consulate Crackdown

The first thing to note is the increased Forest count. Justin Cohen only ran one when he brought the deck to the world, and last year, most ran only two. Amulet decks have always been vulnerable to Blood Moon, to the point that Cohen didn't think he could ever beat it even with significant sideboard space. However, the increasing popularity of Field of Ruin has led to Amulet hedging against getting Strip Mined. This has the added benefit of reducing the vulnerability to getting Mooned, though it doesn't eliminate it.

However, in a world where the most popular deck by far can and frequently does run Blood Moon, a few more Forests isn't enough. Instead, Titan has started running former Standard staple Coalition Relic. Back in Time Spiral Block Constructed, Relic was a critical piece of Mystical Teachings Control decks, serving as a combination of fixing and acceleration. In Standard it competed with Coldsteel Heart, which was cheaper but also couldn't provide the extra burst of mana Relic did.

In Modern Titan decks, Relic functions like an additional Azuza, Lost but Seeking. However, against Phoenix, it allows for Primeval Titan to be cast the following turn even under Blood Moon. Even when there is no Moon, extra mana is critical for Amulet to actually keep up with Phoenix. Relic also facilitates the sideboard plan of slamming green creatures and Path to Exile. Considering that artifact removal is usually ineffective against Amulet decks due to their speed, Relic is an incredibly intelligent addition.

...Or, Kill 'Em All

Finally, I return to another old refrain: control should be doing better than it is. There's a clear metagame trend for graveyard decks, and answer decks should be adjusting their disruption accordingly. However, after some positive signs from Regionals control players, I was very disappointed by their showing at the GP's. It was just too hard for some to catch up in time. It turns out I may have been looking in the wrong place, and that work was being done in the smaller tournaments.

Jeskai Control, Jonathan Sukenik (5th, SCG Philadelphia Classic)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Enchantments

3 Search for Azcanta

Sorceries

2 Supreme Verdict

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Opt
1 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
3 Logic Knot
1 Think Twice
2 Electrolyze
4 Cryptic Command
3 Hieroglyphic Illumination
2 Settle the Wreckage

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Island
3 Field of Ruin
2 Steam Vents
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Celestial Colonnade
2 Plains
1 Arid Mesa
1 Mountain
1 Glacial Fortress

Sideboard

4 Surgical Extraction
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Negate
2 Dispel
2 Celestial Purge
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Isochron Scepter

The first item of note is only one Lightning Bolt. How the mighty have fallen. In a world of Dredge and Phoenixes, Bolt just isn't good enough anymore, a huge turnaround from last year. Instead, Johnathan Sukenik has fully embraced recovering from swaths of recursive creatures. He is running full sets of both Lightning Helix and Cryptic Command, perfect for regaining lost ground in the early turns. He's also maindecking Settle the Wreckage, though I don't see the value in splitting numbers with Supreme Verdict. Destroying creatures is at an all-time low in value, and while Supreme is more versatile, this isn't the time for extra versatility.

Initially, I was skeptical of the full set of sideboard Surgicals. Doesn't control have better options? Then, I saw the Isochron Scepter, and it made sense. Sukenik intends to effectively mill out Dredge and Phoenix in post-board games. It's very unlikely that either would know to pack artifact removal, so this plan makes some sense. I would expect Dredge to have Assassin's Trophy at least, since Rest in Peace is a card, but it seems to have worked out. I'm mostly impressed that someone found a good use for Scepter again; it's another card that's fallen a long way since its heyday.

Bottom Line

Change is coming in Modern, if coming slowly. The incremental changes that we've observed so far has certainly helped their pilots. However, these minor changes prove that Phoenix is beatable and that Modern can deal with this problem. I look forward to seeing what new developments arrive in the next few weeks.

Why I’m Always Selling

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Pop quiz time! When does one make money from MTG finance?

  1. When buying collections
  2. When finding cards on TCGplayer for sale below buylist
  3. When trading for value and grinding at GP’s
  4. When buying Reserved List staples and sitting on them

Today, the answer is none of the above. The only time you are literally making money from MTG is when you sell cards—preferably for profit. Options 1 through 4 above may set you up nicely to make money from Magic, but no profits are actually realized until you sell something for more than what you paid, after all expenses and fees are factored in.

It’s why I like the phrase, “Nobody ever went bankrupt selling for a profit,” so much. It’s a reminder that you have to sell in order to make money. Otherwise, you may have the most beautiful, valuable, complete Magic collection in your sphere of influence. But you could also be cash poor and making no money. And, as morbid as it sounds, you can’t take any of these pieces are cardboard with you in the end. Your cards will be sold…eventually.

Why Bring This Up?

I am constantly selling. My preferred method of outing cards is often to ship to ABUGames or Card Kingdom buylists, though occasionally you’ll see me throw up some deals on Twitter.

Not long ago I posted a card for sale on Twitter and within a couple hours it was snatched up. The buyer proceeded to tell me how the card would likely continue its climb, eventually reaching a value more than 50% above where I had priced it. While this is nice information to have (I always like when others share their financial projections on cards), it is counter to my intent: to sell cards for profit.

Do you think Star City Games or Card Kingdom cares that some Reserved List card is likely to rise in value over the next five years? Or that Mox Diamond has been on a steady climb recently?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

I’m sure they are aware, but I don’t think it figures directly into their business model. They aren’t in the business of buying up Mox Diamonds and Dual Lands to sit on for months or years. They are in the business of buying cards to have copies in stock so they can sell them for a profit to others. This is a proven, time-tested strategy that has worked for these vendors for many years.

Their success inspires me to operate in much the same way. While I don’t have the time or resources to manage a full-blown buylist, lately I’ve been biased towards shopping around for deals that could then be converted into profits. Rather than speculate and hope that a card increases in price over some time horizon without guarantee, I’m enjoying this buy-and-sell approach. It’s my bias to take profits now and plow them into additional purchases rather than hold out for more.

How Do I Find These Deals?

I don’t hold any secrets when it comes to MTG finance. My first priority is to provide guidance on how others could make their Magic hobby a little cheaper, or even profitable. Therefore I don’t hold back ideas that I stumble upon myself. Here are a few I’ve been working lately to acquire cards at competitive pricing so that I can quickly sell them for profit:

Social Media Buying. Some people in the Magic community have local sources for their deals. They shop at their LGS’s, buy collections, or browse secretive websites I don’t know about for the best prices. Then they flip the cards quickly on social media—most commonly Twitter or Discord—to make a quick buck. They price these cards competitively, passing on some of the savings.

When feasible, I’ll jump on these cards to try and squeeze out a tiny bit of margin. I may grab a Beta rare and ship it to ABUGames for store credit, which I can then use to acquire played Modern staples at okay pricing. Then I sell the Modern cards (which are quite hot right now) and grind out a modest margin.

International Arbitrage. Yes, arbitrage is still a thing. Even though everyone already knows about it, it’s not always easy or straightforward to execute. This form of arbitrage entails buying cards from one country and selling them in another.

Just this morning I made the purchase below from TokyoMTG over in Japan. I hope to flip some of these for modest profit; with recent price movement higher, these could prove to be even more profitable once the cards arrive.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doubling Season

Domestic Arbitrage. This purchasing method is my favorite. There are major online vendors that sell cards for below buylist of other vendors. It happens all the time, but the opportunities are often short-lived. Here’s a recent purchase I made from Channel Fireball:

It’s not the most exciting of orders, but I flipped these low-end Unlimited rares to ABUGames for more than double what I paid in store credit. Granted an ABUGames buck is worth around $0.65-$0.70 in real money. But if I can acquire ABU bucksTM for $0.50 on the dollar and use credit to cash out at $0.70 on the dollar, the delta is a reasonable margin—especially when combining orders to save on shipping.

But Sig, Why Not Hold the Reserved List Cards?

It’s certainly reasonable to hold onto cards that are most likely to increase in value over time. This would include Reserved List playables such as Dual Lands or Grim Monolith, both of which see steady play in Legacy and Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Monolith

You may also ask me why I would want to sell the Fetch Lands I’m acquiring from ABUGames with store credit. Surely, their prices will continue to climb as Modern Horizons approaches, right?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

There are three reasons I am selling these staples despite their proclivity to climb in price over the next few months.

First, I like to maintain liquidity. This is the only way I can keep cash on hand to take advantage of the arbitrage deals I come across. Despite what some may assume, I normally operate with only a tiny pool of cash for my MTG finance transactions.

The reason for this is simple, and driven by my long-term goal. Every time my cash level exceeds a certain, modest threshold, I take money out of my “Magic account” and transfer it into the college account. There it is used to purchase stocks to hold for 10-15 years, slowly accumulating dividends and profits to grow into a college nest egg. Remember, I have two tuitions to save for now!

Second, I try to keep the vendor model in mind. I know that a vendor may not list all copies of a given card at once in case there’s a buyout, but for the most part stores want to sell their cards. That’s how they make money. Like I mentioned when I opened this article, I sell because I want to make money.

Last but not least, I already do sit on a bunch of Reserved List cards. They’re in my decks! I also have a binder of cards I hold because I appreciate their artwork, flavor, and collectability. Other cards I acquire I either don’t really care much about or I already have copies of, so I see little reason to hold more.

Some big-shot, vocal Magic finance people boast large collections of Dual Lands, Masterpieces, Arabian Nights cards, etc. That’s not my style—I have cards because I want to play them or collect them. Anything additional I pick up I intend to sell so they can re-enter circulation for someone else to enjoy.

Wrapping It Up

I’ve sold many cards lately that are on an upward trajectory. This includes Mana Crypt, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Scalding Tarn, Mox Diamond, and Serra's Sanctum. I even shipped Card Kingdom a played Revised Tundra when their buylist spiked to $245 for a day.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tundra

I could have sat on these cards longer to grind out more profits. But that’s not my business model and it’s not my style. I thrive on liquidity, arbitrage, and selling for profits to put into college savings. Others have their own motivations and I applaud them to sticking to their strategies. But when you see me selling a hot card, don’t assume I’m being reckless and selling prematurely. In reality, I just operate on a different wavelength because my motivation may be different.

Hopefully the explanation of my strategy in this article helps explain my behaviors. I don’t like to speculate, I don’t like to sit on excess copies of a card, and I don’t like to hold a card for months at a time unless it’s something I enjoy owning and want to keep. This is a strategy that has worked well for me as I continue to move money into the college savings account, and I will continue to apply it for years to come.

…

Sigbits

  • Since I’ve been grinding ABUGames store credit so much lately, I thought I’d share some favorable buy prices there this week. Let’s start with Unlimited Two-Headed Giant of Foriys. I purchased six MP copies from TCGplayer a little while back for around $35 each. In played condition, ABU games pays $80 in store credit per copy, more than twice the cash price!
  • For some reason Beta Kudzu is rather expensive! I don’t even know if the card sees any play in Old School. Yet ABUGames pays $166.25 in store credit for played copies. They pay $209 for slightly played copies! As of Sunday morning there was an LP copy listed on TCGplayer for $119.49 plus shipping. Once again, this is nearly the equivalent to paying $0.50 for an ABU buck in store credit, convertible to cash at roughly 65%. See how this adds up?
  • I also flipped a couple copies of Beta Juggernaut for store credit. Though not recently, I had been able to acquire a couple played copies in the $50 range. ABUGames offers $128.65 in store credit for played copies and $96 for HP copies. Yet another example of doubling into store credit through domestic arbitrage.

Ashes to Ashes: Should Wizards Address Phoenix?

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Each tournament, Izzet Phoenix's impressive, sustained numbers start to look less like an outlier and more like a pattern. Patterns like these have a history of being addressed by Wizards via the banlist. So how does Izzet Phoenix stack up against past offenders? Do the deck's decriers have a case for caging the bird? Let's find out!

Izzet Phoenix, by Guillaume Matignon (1st, GP Bilbao)

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Thing in the Ice
2 Crackling Drake

Enchantments

2 Pyromancer Ascension

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
1 Lightning Axe
1 Izzet Charm
4 Thought Scour
4 Opt
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Gut Shot
4 Manamorphose
1 Echoing Truth

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
2 Polluted Delta
2 Steam Vents
4 Spirebluff Canal
1 Sulfur Falls
3 Island
2 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Abrade
1 Anger of the Gods
2 Blood Moon
1 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Dispel
2 Dragon's Claw
1 Flame Slash
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Ravenous Trap
1 Shatterstorm
1 Spell Pierce

Explaining Phoenix's Numbers

I won't delve too deep here, as David's already covered the possible non-busted reasons Phoenix is so popular. But I will include a brief analysis for posterity.

Financial Accessibility

Something Modern routinely comes under fire for is the high cost of its decks. Compared with many strategies the format offers, Izzet Phoenix ranks among the cheapest. Sure, the deck is $1000 now, but it wasn't a month or even a couple weeks ago; the announcements surrounding Modern Horizons, coupled with Phoenix's growing popularity, have significantly increased the price of certain Modern staples—most notably Scalding Tarn, the single most expensive card in Izzet by a mile. Add to that the fact that many players bought into Phoenix earlier than just yesterday, and lots of Modern players already own Scalding Tarns, and Phoenix becomes a very affordable option.

Loosely related is Phoenix's status in Standard, where pundits also claim it may be the best deck. Players who own the deck in Standard don't need much to make it work in Modern, too, meaning the deck's presence here may have attracted players who might not even register for tournaments otherwise. It's not only cheaper to have two decks that mostly share a core of cards; doing so also takes pressure off players to dedicate time to learning a new archetype.

Strategic Accessibility

Another key factor is Phoenix's strategic profile. Its mass of cantrips give the deck a low skill floor, meaning newer pilots can expect to do okay with the deck—its gameplan of bin-a-Phoenix or land-a-Thing and then chain together cantrips is both powerful and intuitive. Simply being in a resource-strapped mid-game state will advantage the Phoenix deck over more interactive strategies, as topdecking but one cantrip can lead to a chain that revives the 3/2s. In this way, Izzet is a critical mass deck (like Burn or Infect) that doesn't necessarily rely on having those pieces in the hand to begin with: they all find each other.

Phoenix also has a high skill ceiling, meaning there's plenty to learn and master within the deck. Additional time sunk into the strategy rewards its pilots handsomely. Take Michael Bernat's expert cantrip sequencing while blazing through the GP Los Angeles Top 8. This aspect of the deck draws pros and higher-level players to the deck; players that might win on any passable option.

Proven Pedigree

Phoenix's profile attracts players of all skill levels. But perhaps Phoenix's most alluring feature for many , especially those with much on the line at Magic tournaments like pros, is its pedigree. Phoenix's numbers continue to not drop despite the target on its head, further adding credence to the idea that it is indeed the best thing to be doing in Modern. In any case, prospective players could certainly do worse; they'll never be called scrubs for sleeving up this veritable boogeyman.

Meet the Bandidates

Our next question: what would Wizards even ban? There are a few candidates in the running, so it depends on the goals they have for post-Phoenix Modern.

Faithless Looting

A simple Google search pegs Faithless Looting as the most popular ban target according to most Modern players, with pros and content creators stoking the fire of memes at lower levels. Looting enables the deck's fast Phoenix starts and gives the deck longevity; it's perhaps the best card in the deck.

Wizards could hit Looting for a couple of reasons. It's a nice target if they also want to nerf Dredge, another of the format's top-performing strategies. And it's of course a goner if Wizards decides they don't want such an efficient card selection spell legal at all. I do think this hit will neuter Phoenix into the deep future. The deck will probably still exist, but it should be knocked down a tier or two, as turn-two Phoenixes will be much tougher to achieve.

I'm against a Looting ban on the grounds that the card is splashed into so many decks. (It's also just really fun to cast, which has made it one of my favorite cards in Modern since the format's inception.) Like Ancient Stirrings, Looting enables multiple decks, including a swath of Tier 3-and-below archetypes (Mardu Pyromancer, Grishoalbrand, Hollow One, Storm, etc.). In terms of metagame implications, banning it would be akin to banning Lightning Bolt, as the format would shift radically in its absence, food-chain-style; while Bolt is more played overall, it's less crucial to any strategy, as similar options exist.

R&D has also recently expressed reluctance to remove Faithless Looting, citing the format's shifting nature. Indeed, Ancient Stirrings went through a period last year of extreme prejudice in the community, with many calling for its ban; with Krark-Clan Ironworks gone, though, these same voices have declared the cantrip safe for Modern. I can see that happening with Looting once Izzet Phoenix ceases to perform, one way or the other.

Manamorphose

Others have called Manamorphose the problem with the deck. Cutting this piece won't hurt Phoenix as much as the Looting ban would, but I think the effects are close. Early Phoenixes still exist between Gut Shot and Surgical Extraction. Thing in the Ice becomes about a turn slower on average.

One thing I like about a Manamorphose hit is the lack of splash damage. Almost nobody plays this card! It's splashable, sure, but there are just too few ways to profit from its enabling. I think this is the most conservative and surgical ban: it mostly just hits Phoenix, but it still lets the deck go on in some capacity. Manamorphoseis an ideal ban if Wizards merely wants to take Phoenix down a notch in their update.

Arclight Phoenix

One suggestion I haven't heard is to ban Phoenix itself. My reasoning here is that URx decks were fine and diverse before Phoenix arrived on the scene, and the other pieces of the deck all contribute to Modern's diversity. There's a real possibility that Wizards won't want Phoenix in the format anymore come May 20. This is the route the company went with other diversity offenders (more on this below) like Treasure Cruise and Birthing Pod: it's extreme, but very safe.

Other Options

Thing in the Ice has been called the best creature in the deck, with Ross Merriam going so far as to say Izzet Phoenix's name is misleading. So why isn't Thing a consideration? While I believe a Thing ban would significantly hurt Izzet Phoenix, I think Thing is the kind of build-around, spells-matter card Wizards wants to be okay for Modern, which is why they keep printing cards in a similar vein (most recently, Pteramander). The creature saw fringe play before Phoenix, and was obviously fine in the format at that point, so I think Phoenix is a likelier hit if it comes to sniping the creature base.

Competitive Diversity

This element strikes me as Phoenix's biggest offense. It's true that Modern is mostly diverse outside of Phoenix, and that Phoenix is mostly just popular at large events. But I don't think Wizards cares so much. They banned Twin mostly* on the grounds of GP Top 8 performance, for instance, which barely affects the majority of players. It seems the company operates via a trickle-down metric, adjusting the format based on large-event performance because they have unprecedented access to those numbers, and hoping the metagames created at the top tables are reflected at the lower ones.

While other decks exist, the fact still remains that all signs point to Phoenix taking up a huge slice of the competitive Modern metagame; something like 20%. That's more than Twin ever claimed, but I don't think Twin should necessarily be our point of reference, as many factors contributed to its banning. There are other, more pertinent comparisons to draw, such as to Birthing Pod, Deathrite Shaman, Bloodbraid Elf, and Treasure Cruise. All these cards were banned for spearheading decks exceeding 20% Day 2 metagame shares and GP/PT Top 8 shares. Based on the numbers we have right now, Phoenix also passes that breaking point.

Cruise specifically is very close to Phoenix in format effects. It single-handedly created a cantrip-loaded UR deck that pushed 20% of the metagame share.

*Many also hold that Twin was banned to shake up the PT. While this argument is somewhat rooted in fact, we still have more evidence that Wizards' stated reasons for the ban were actual ones, and not just distractions, so I won't here entertain this (relatively plausible) conspiracy theory.

When the Clock Strikes...

If Arclight Phoenix is as egregious as Treasure Cruise, why isn't it banned? I think at this point, we're looking at less of a "why" question and more of a "when." While the Los Angeles and Bilbao trends are troubling from a save-the-Phoenix perspective, the fact is they haven't so far been enough to warrant direct action from Wizards. The company is likely waiting until the next scheduled update on May 20 to do something about Phoenix. As David mentioned this week, there are plenty more high-profile events on the horizon this month. There's a nonzero chance the format corrects itself by then, perhaps adopting some of the many strategies listed on this very site to combat the recurring flier.

Likelihood of Internal Regulation

Personally, I doubt that happens. The best players already know how to best Phoenix, or at least understand their gameplans, and the deck is still crushing. I don't buy that there's a bunch of secret tech Modern grinders have yet to discover or wield appropriately.

The metagame may well shift a little bit, and I wouldn't be surprised if Phoenix's share dipped slightly. But I don't think the slight dip I predict will prove enough to protect the deck from the May 20 update.

Modern Horizons on the Way

Another argument I've heard for leaving the format as-is: Modern Horizons releases on June 14, and is likely to deeply alter the format in one way or another. But June 14 is three months away, and the set's impact is not guaranteed. Wizards has never waited for seismic shifts before acting in the past—the most obvious example is their Splinter Twin ban just before Oath of the Gatewatch was released and Eldrazi took over the format. I seriously doubt Horizons prevents any otherwise warranted move in May.

Fire on the Leaves

This Modern is proving one of the most divisive in recent times, with many voicing concern over Phoenix and Dredge while others claim Modern is in a Golden Age. How do you feel about the current format? Which direction do you hope Wizards takes in regards to Phoenix? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

This Week in Magic – Looting, Esports, Mulligans, & Treasure Chests

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Faithless Looting Escapes Ban, Crushes The Competition

The banned and restricted announcement last week brought no changes, which meant Arclight Phoenix lived to see another day. A card in discussion for a ban was Faithless Looting, which immediately took advantage of its freedom by dominating the fields of both Modern Magic Fests last weekend.

As this tweet observed, Faithless Looting was more dominant last weekend than Eye of Ugin in its time, which could indicate that not banning it or something else was a mistake. A ban may be inevitable, but for the time being Faithless Looting is in control of the format.

One way to cash in for the short-term is on some anti-Faithless Looting cards rising to prominence. A great example is Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, which has shown a clear upturn in price since the weekend.

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Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet has grown tremendously online in the past weeks, at a price just over a ticket at the beginning of February, and now nearly 9 tix. The paper price bottomed out at at an all-time-low around $7 at the end of the year, but is now nearly up to $10. With its relatively low price and prospects beyond Modern, this one looks like a good long-term buy, even if graveyard decks do see a ban.

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A target in a similar metagame niche as Kalitas is Anafenza, the Foremost. Anafenza is actually a much more powerful hoser against Arclight Phoenix and Dredge, but less accessible to a variety of decks as a three-color card. Its online price has grown in the past month from 0.6 tickets to 2, exceeding the paper price around $1.5.

A relatively niche legend, this one doesn’t seem due to spike anytime soon, and its low price is likely owing to Khans of Tarkir being opened to oblivion to satisfy demand for fetchlands. Still, there seems to be little downside and definite long-term appeal.

Magic Esports Receives Major Corporate Sponsorship

The $1,000,000 Mythic Invitational will begin next week. Wizards is officially ushering in the esports era with this Arena event, hoping it’s the biggest and most-watched Magic event ever. I don’t think it will have a major impact from a financial standpoint—the cards are all known quantities, and being an Arena event with a special format it doesn’t have a direct crossover to paper formats.

To me the bigger picture for the market is the increased attention this event and the push towards esports could potentially bring to Magic. A major step forward was made last week when Wizards revealed the “Omen by HP” gaming PC brand would be sponsoring the event.

Magic reaching the next level and ascending into the esports world to the attention of a higher order of magnitude of audience will require these sort of major partnerships, so I take this as a great sign of things to come. An immediately apparent benefit is increased exposure. Omen by HP is promoting the event—and therefore Magic—on social media, which is showing the game to a whole new audience.

London Mulligan Rule Comes to MTGO

Slipped within a regular MTGO announcement, we learned for the first time that the new London Mulligan rule will be tested on Magic Online from April 10th to May 1st. It will be done for the purpose of helping to provide a “critical mass of data.” It will also have the effect of helping players test for Mythic Championship London with the new rule, which was previously unavailable online.

I think it’s finally starting to sink into the paper market that this rule is likely to be reality within a few months. We’re seeing according rises in cards like Serum Powder, Gemstone Caverns, Leyline of the Void, and Leyline of Sanctity. I expect these cards to continue to grow leading into the Mythic Championship when the London mulligan appears in the spotlight.

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I have my eye closest on Gemstone Caverns, which has now surpassed the price it spiked to last year before sinking. $50 for this card seems perfectly reasonable by the Pro Tour, and in my eyes there could easily be a future London Mulligan Modern dystopia where this is a $100 four-of staple in multiple decks.

MTGO Treasure Chest EV Higher than Market Value

This week it circulated on Twitter that the expected value of Magic Online Treasure Chests is currently around 15% higher than the market value, if Play Points are valued at the same rate at tix.

For the purposes of entering events, Play Points are the same as tickets (at the rate of 10 to 1). So for anyone looking to play events in the future there is real value to be made. Any online grinder is always hungry for Play Points, especially if they spend their ticket winnings on cards to increase their collection or cash out by selling tickets. Now is a good opportunity to stock some Play Points away.

There is technically the risk that the value of Magic Online tickets falls by more than 15%, but that seems extremely unlikely in 2019. One way to mitigate that risk is to cash in the Play Points ASAP—a good opportunity will be the upcoming Modern Horizons and War of the Spark releases.

The prices of cards online are inflated at release, when constructed players need them for Standard but they're still in very short supply. This is the ideal window to play Limited on MTGO. If you have any interest in playing any of these upcoming releases, opening Treasure Chests now could help make it cheaper.

Note that the contents of chests are random, so it’s possible to make less (or of course more) than the expected value. But the large 15% buffer makes it much harder to lose. Each chest also contains a guaranteed 5 play points, which reduces the variance significantly.

-Adam

Insuring Your Magic Collection: Part 1

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I spend so much time talking about cards to speculate on, and the latest EDH trends, that I sometimes neglect to mention the importance of applying personal and professional experiences to the game. To try to connect my career and my passion for Magic, I decided to write a two-part series highlighting the importance of insurance and how we can best position ourselves to protect our Magic: the Gathering collections.

I did some research on the topic and quickly realized the MTG community is underutilizing insurance as a means of protecting ourselves. In fact, after reviewing my condo-owners policy, I realized how little my personal collection was covered for. It would likely get excluded from reimbursement in the event of a loss, or at best receive about 10% of the total value after depreciation is factored in.

Upon further examination of a variety of major insurance company policy declaration pages, I realized trading cards in general (Magic, Pokémon, sports cards, etc.) are typically excluded or reimbursed at a significantly deprecated value.

To put my money where my mouth is, I ended up going out and buying a collectibles insurance policy from Collect Insure in response to my findings for these articles. In fact, Collect Insure was kind enough to take an interview with me where we discussed the policy I purchased, the collectibles insurance industry, and the general lack of awareness the average collector has towards protecting their collection.

Before diving into the buying experience and my interview with Collect Insure, I want to focus on the importance of insurance and share a personal experience from my life which shaped my perception towards insurance at an early age.

Disclosure before going any further: I am licensed to sell insurance but I do not sell for any company currently (I work on the corporate side), so please make sure to review your own situation with a licensed insurance agent. We will cover this in more detail, but I highly recommend reviewing insurance options and your current protection for your trading cards if you are in possession of a collection valued at $5,000 or more.

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Realizing the Importance of Insurance

My career began in 2006 when I got a job over the summer working for my Mom's insurance agency in the southwest Chicago suburbs. I had my driver's license by this point and I was fortunate enough to have a hand-me-down van from my parents.

About three weeks into my career two life-changing events happened:

  1. I got my first paycheck
  2. I got into a car accident

The paycheck meant the world to me. It was the first time I felt independent and it was validation that I could handle the world on my own someday. It also taught me the value of money at a young age and how important a good work ethic is in life. From that moment on, my parents viewed me as part of the working class. They certainly continued to help me out financially through college (thank you, Mom and Dad!) but it was monumental for them as well because it meant I was ready to face the full responsibilities of adulthood in a few short years.

The car accident was a more significant and impactful moment for me. I always found it ironic that I got in a car accident right after starting my career in the auto and home insurance industry (also referred to as Property & Casualty, or P&C). I didn't know much about insurance yet and I hadn't been driving for very long when it happened. To this day, the memory of the accident still plays vividly in my mind.

Safety Belts, Air Bags, and Impact

I can visualize the moment my car connected with the other car like it was yesterday, and I can remember the face of the truck driver who waved me out as clearly as a picture on a high-def TV.

I was pulling out of the office parking lot during my lunch break, trying to turn left at a busy intersection. Weather was clear—sunny in fact—and there weren't any abnormal or dangerous conditions to blame. Traffic in the near lane to me was backed up as far as I could see, and there was a semi truck blocking my vision into the second lane which I needed to cross to complete my turn.

The truck driver signaled for me to pull up so I could see around him, but it was too difficult to do so without the nose of my van pushing into the second lane. I motioned to him that I couldn't see, so he checked his side mirror once... twice... then waved an "okay" as if he were motioning me to come over and greet him. The next thing I remember was tapping my accelerator as I used one hand to signal "thank you" back to the truck driv... BAM...

Impact.

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I had just been hit on my front left driver's side bumper by a car I would later learn was going an estimated 60 miles an hour in a 30 zone.

Am I okay? Are THEY okay?

Survival instincts kicked in immediately. I was a little dazed and confused; maybe even in shock. But the adrenaline rush had me focused pretty quickly and I began assessing the car that hit me. I could see their airbags had gone off and there was no damage to their windshield which told me the passenger(s) hadn't been ejected.

I need to help them.

As I got out of my car, the truck driver and others were already out of their vehicles checking on the other car's passengers... there were two people in the car. I was fine. They were... fine. Unscathed despite their four-door Toyota Camry being totaled.

How?

Safety belts and airbags. They had been wearing their seat belts and their airbags worked perfectly to cushion the impact. Their injuries would end up being relatively minor compared to what could have happened, and it reinforced for me the importance of wearing seat belts while driving.

What am I going to do about my car? Their car? My parents are going to be furious.

"Sir, can I have your license and insurance please?" the first police officer on the scene questioned me.

That incident would be my first experience with car insurance claims, and still represents one of the main catalysts for my passion towards maintaining a career in insurance. I realized after that experience how important protecting and insuring peoples' livelihood truly is. I've stayed with my career in insurance for the better part of 12 years as a result (including time before graduating college, of course).

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Connecting Magic and Insurance

When I think back on that accident and what could have happened, one thing is very clear: the financial (and human) impact could have been devastating. By definition, P&C insurance is designed to bring you back to the state you were in financially before a loss occurs. It is not setup such that people can profit from it, although many do try (Google "insurance fraud stories" and you can read about some very interesting criminal cases about how not to treat insurance).

In theory, the purpose of insurance sounds great; the unfortunate challenge faced by society is that not everyone carries enough insurance to cover the maximum probable loss (MPL)—the most money that can be lost in any one given insured loss event. In some cases, people will even drive (illegally) without insurance.

Some of the saddest stories in the insurance industry are those where families either cannot afford insurance and sustain a major loss, or are victims of an irresponsible party operating without insurance. In my story, I was deemed at-fault for the accident (though the car that hit me got a speeding ticket). Had I not been insured, that accident would have cost my family and I roughly $50,000 in out-of-pocket losses. Instead, we paid a $1,000 deductible and the insurance company covered the rest.

Think about all the times we as a community have seen or heard about MTG collections being stolen while at Friday Night Magic, tournaments, or even just a casual date with the playgroup. These are devastating experiences for everyone, and it pains the community because we are generally such a welcoming and trustworthy group of individuals. With insurance, these experiences (despite still terrible) can have a mildly happier outcome where the victim gets to recoup an amount from their insurance company to put towards rebuilding what they have lost.

Deductibles Defined

Deductibles are the amount on an insurance policy that insurance companies will require the insured to pay when a loss occurs. The deductible is one of the most influential parts of an insurance policy (and important as I connect insurance to Magic) because the deductible is the value that insurance companies use to deter the frequency of insurance claims. In other words, deductibles are a driving factor for keeping insurance prices lower than they would be otherwise.

Imagine a scenario where you didn't have any financial responsibility when you experience a covered loss: for example, let's say you left your $500 lawnmower outside and someone stole it. If you didn't have any deductible you could file a claim for this loss with your insurer and they would reimburse you in full for the stolen lawnmower.

In this case, what incentive would there be for you to lock up that lawnmower in the future? Deductibles encourage people to better care for their belongings. In turn, this helps suppress the number of small insurance claims, which can help keep insurance prices lower.

Protecting Valuables from Common Forms of Loss

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I mention deductibles because they should be a major factor in insuring your Magic collection. Theft and fire are the most likely causes of loss tied to a Magic: the Gathering collection. On most homeowners policies, both theft and fire are named perils, meaning they are types of losses which would be covered.

On a homeowners policy you can add scheduled personal property (SPP) to give yourself additional declared coverage for valuables or unique personal property which would otherwise be excluded or insured for a depreciated value. For example, if your wedding ring is stolen, you may be compensated for only a fraction of the replacement value, or not at all. Declaring it directly in an SPP ensures you're covered for the full value.

Most SPP policies will require proof of appraisal as part of the scheduling process; this allows the insurance company to confirm the item(s) they are covering actually exist and are of the value the insured is requesting. The most common valuables requiring an SPP policy are wedding and engagement rings, musical instruments, furs, and collectibles (art, watches, guns, coins, etc.).

SPP policies can typically be purchased as an endorsement (think add-on) to your homeowners (or renters or condo) policy; you will usually have to pay an increase in your premium to get this type of coverage. However, in some cases you may have to buy the SPP as a stand-alone policy. A standalone SPP policy is necessary if your primary insurance company will not cover the item(s) you are trying to insure.

We'll discuss this more in the context of insuring Magic collections. As previously mentioned, based on my research the majority of SPP endorsements offered by major insurance companies (Allstate, GEICO, State Farm, etc.) do not insure trading cards of any kind.

Loss Prevention

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In Part 2 of this series, I am going to discuss more about how to acquire collectibles insurance for trading card collections. Without a policy in place, the best thing we can do is try to prevent things like fire and theft from happening. While our community talks about this on occasion, some really simple things often get overlooked.

For example, if you use a fire-proof safe for your most expensive Magic cards, I hope you are keeping the cards themselves out of plastic cases (default to glass or metal if you must use something). Crazy as it might sound, the plastic top-loaders and penny sleeves we are used to using for protecting cards in-transit or at-rest can melt at high heats and ruin the cards without them ever being touched by flame. Be careful about leaving your Magic cards in hot cars while in top-loaders for the same reason.

Another simple loss prevention tool to consider is writing your name on everything except the cards themselves. Certainly the sleeves and cards have to stay unmarked for playing purposes, but you can write your name on everything else. This is helpful for immediate identification of collections should the thief try to resell the cards quickly. Of course, if they dispose of everything but the cards and sleeves, you will be in a tough spot tracking them down, but this can be a good deterrent nonetheless.

Finally, I encourage everyone to put a lock on your backpack when you are transporting pieces of your collection to tournaments or your LGS. It is inevitable that we will all bring our valuable pieces of our collection out once in a while (heck, many EDH, Modern, Legacy, and Vintage decks are a down-payment on a car or house these days). If you are going to transport one or more of these types of valuables without insurance, locking them up and keeping them in your bag at all times other than when they're on your playmat can help you reduce risk.

Unfortunately, like everything in the world, loss prevention guarantees nothing more than your best effort at minimizing your loss exposure. It does not eliminate your risk entirely—thus another reason why I advocate for collectibles insurance, especially for larger collections over $5,000 in value.

Wrapping Up

For Part 1 of this two-part series, I focused on why insurance is such an important facet of our lives and highlighted some of the connections to Magic: the Gathering. I wanted to draw awareness to the fact that most standard homeowners policies do not provide sufficient coverage (if any) for trading card collections.

If you take nothing else away from this article, please just do me the favor of consulting with your insurance agent about your own trading card collection and what coverage you have in place. I suggest anyone with a collection of trading cards valued at $5,000 or more evaluate their insurance options and consider purchasing a collectibles insurance policy.

I'll be back next week to discuss in greater detail the options available to protect our trading card collections. I'll cover my own experience identifying a gap in my collection's coverage and the process I took to close that gap with a new insurance policy.

If you have any questions or would like more information, feel free to reach out to me. As mentioned in my opening disclosure, I am licensed in insurance but I do not sell on behalf of any companies because of my corporate career. I maintain my license as a means of staying current with the agency side of the industry—not to sell insurance.

I will always suggest reaching out to your own insurance agent with questions about your situation, but I am more than happy to provide advice in the meantime.

Update: Insuring Your Magic Collection: Part 2 is live! Check it out!

You can always reach me on Twitter @ChiStyleGaming or on the QS Discord with questions!

Tales from the Buylist #6 – Ascending to Victory

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Another week goes by, and Izzet Phoenix continues to tear through the field. MagicFest Bilbao's main event was taken down by Guillaume Matignon, while MF Tampa featured four Izzet Phoenix decks hitting the top eight. The conversation around Faithless Looting is starting to get very real, and I'm thinking we'll see a reaction from Wizards sooner rather than later. The shell of the deck is already incredibly powerful, but this weekend featured some innovations and branching decklist decisions that I'd like to highlight. As well, I'll be reviewing cards that saw play this weekend that may be primed for movement in the coming weeks.

I'll note here that a few of my picks will be very closely tied to the legality of Faithless Looting, and an emergency ban could very well be imminent. As always, speculate at your own risk.

Izzet Phoenix

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This 1R enchantment saw play as a two-of in Guillaume Matignon's winning list from GP Bilbao. Movement on this card has begun and could settle out to be a $10 card by the end of the month. This card was previously a big part of UR Storm lists in Modern but has since fallen out of favor given the speed of the format. This weekend proved that there might be room for reconsideration for this card. There are few better feelings in Modern gameplay than casting Manamorphose and getting a copy of it put on the stack.

Modern Masters 2017's printing of this card tanked its price to the floor, with many available under a buck. Near Mint copies can be had for around that price on TCGplayer if you don't mind paying a little bit of shipping. I believe anything under $3 will make it a solid pickup.

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One of the standout cards of the weekend, and one my favorite cards of all time, Snapcaster Mage! This innovation was shown in the four different decklists from GP Tampa, appearing as a two-of in all of them. The Phoenix decks are said to be so good, as they have the ability to change roles in each matchup as need, and often mid-match. Snapcaster Mage allows the deck to rebuy key spells in longer games, and is at worst an Ambush Viper to pressure your opponent's life total. Snappy is just coming off a recent reprint in Ultimate Masters, albeit at mythic.

Non-foil copies are available around the $55 to $60 price point and will definitely not stay there for very long. It wasn't that long ago that we saw $80 copies of the Innistrad printing, and while I don't think it will ever eclipse that, the card might rest somewhere around there should it continue seeing play in Arclight Phoenix and Death's Shadow strategies.

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Speaking of expensive blue cards, Jace, the Mind Sculptor has definitely earned a spot in the Izzet Phoenix Sideboard. Not exactly a natural fit in the normally aggressive strategy that Izzet Phoenix is going for, but perfect for playing longer, drawn-out games against grindier matchups. Like so many UR spell decks before it, hitting the pocket of lands after cantripping several times is usually a death sentence. JTMS can play a big part in fixing that when you've got fetchlands available.

Jace is already under a lot of pressure in a time where all planeswalkers are being scrutinized as more information about War of the Spark becomes available, and could easily pass that $100 mark it is currently sitting at. Many feared that this was the inevitable future for the most powerful planeswalker ever printed, and their fears were not unfounded.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

The two mana flip-walker showed up in the sideboard of Roshen Eapen's GP Tampa winning Death's Shadow list, and I think this may spark some price movement. This card recently showed up in the mainboard of the Legacy version of Death's Shadow to a high degree of success, but it is every bit as powerful in Modern. The lower land count of this deck doesn't usually support playing grindy advantage planeswalkers like Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Chandra, Torch of Defiance, making JVP post-board a solid choice for games that go longer. This card pairs well with Snapcaster Mage, and can be incredibly helpful against go-wide strategies that Death's Shadow classically has struggled with. JVP sits at $15 at time of writing for the Magic Origins and From the Vault: Transform printings.

While it may feel like it, Izzet Phoenix isn't the only deck to play. One strategy that has an easier time than most against Izzet Phoenix is starting to post up better results.

Whir Prison

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellskite

Whir of Invention prison decks are beginning to emerge as the most powerful Ancient Stirrings decks in the format. While the namesake card doesn't have much going for it as a rare in Aether Revolt, a very high-supply, highly opened set, the cards it fetches up are more significant players to watch in the market. Mox Opal, Ensnaring Bridge, and Chalice of the Void comprise the core of expensive cards the deck has playsets of. We're getting to be pretty far out of their most recent printings, and I expect to see the steady upward movement on all three to continue.

The most interesting pieces of the deck are found in Spellskite and Academy Ruins. Spellskite is the best answer to post-board artifact hate outside of Stony Silence, and can absolutely win the game for you by protecting all of your precious lockpieces. Academy Ruins is sort of a sleeper pick for me, but I think it has a lot of room to grow. Copies of both of these cards are starting to dry up on TCG Player, and both may be on the precipice of a price spike.

Mishra's Bauble

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mishra's Bauble

This card has found a home again in Whir Prison and Death's Shadow, and is probably underplayed for how powerful it is. Zero mana cantrips that provide extra information are solid inclusions to any deck that wins with a very small number of cards. I think Death's Shadow abuses this effect best, as it can inform your decision making for future turns, and is also in the same deck as Street Wraith. It slow-trips, giving you the card on the next upkeep like many of the Ice Age spells, but is at its best when paired with fetchlands for the pseudo-scry effect. Its Iconic Masters reprint pushed it farther down from its previous absurd $40 price tag, but we may see a slight rebound into the $10 range should it continue to contribute to the success of Shadow and Whir Prison decks.

Bring It on Home

Modern is in a weird place right now, and it's likely things are going to change in a big way. I feel like all I've been talking or thinking about is Modern for the past few weeks, and deservedly so. Previously I was pretty confident Wizards was going to take a hands-off approach until Modern Horizons dropped. Now I'm not so sure. I'm just holding on and going along for the ride.

Pickups

  • Mishra's Bauble
  • Spellskite
  • Academy Ruins
  • Pyromancer Ascension
  • Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Holds

  • Snapcaster Mage
  • Jace, the Mind Sculptor
  • Mox Opal
  • Ensnaring Bridge
  • Chalice of the Void

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

Firebird’s Shadow: GP Weekend Analysis

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One weekend. Three events. So much data. With an SCG Open and two GPs this weekend, I can better evaluate whether the extreme trends seen in the Regionals data actually have weight, or were the outliers I speculated. Is Phoenix really as good as it looks?

The Day 2 Picture

For unknown reasons, Channelfireball decided to report their Day 2 as percentages rather than the actual numbers. This wasn't a problem for Bilbao since the total population was included and I can do math. The same cannot be said for Tampa Bay. One way to meaningfully combine the data from the GPs with that from SCG Philadelphia is to convert the later into a percentage, then take the average.

Deck NameAverage Day 2 %
Izzet Phoenix21.33
Other11.77
Humans7.97
Dredge7.30
Mono-Green Tron6.73
Burn5.97
Grixis Death's Shadow4.63
Rock4.37
UW Control4.27
Affinity3.63
RG Valakut3.10
Whir Prison3.03
Spirits2.7
Ad Nauseam1.97
Mono-Red Phoenix1.63
Hardened Scales1.53
Eldrazi Stompy1.53
Sultai Reclamation1.00
Blue Moon0.93
Hollow One0.87
Lantern Control0.57
Amulet Titan0.57
Jeskai Control0.43
Jund0.43

While that is an impressive spread of decks making Modern, once again, there's a huge jump between Izzet Phoenix to the next individual result. 9.56 percentage points separate Phoenix from the aggregate Other category and it's 13.36 points ahead of Humans. That's not normal. It's also incredibly strange when taken as a whole.

Again, this is not a Tier 0 situation. Compared with Eye of Ugin's reign over Modern, there is less suppression of diversity; Izzet Phoenix is winning a lot, but it isn't winning everything. This metagame looks more like the Grixis Death's Shadow summer, where there was a very successful and powerful top deck, but diversity wasn't substantially affected.

Population Question

This Day 2 data may simply be a reflection of the Day 1 population. I've been told several times that every Day 1 for the past few months of premier level play has been heavily tilted towards Izzet Phoenix. Since Day 1 data almost never gets published, there's no way to verify that anecdotal claim, so take it as you will. But if it's true, and Izzet Phoenix starts out as the most-played deck by a significant margin, Phoenix has to end up as a major player on Day 2 and subsequently the Top 8. Only a complete collapse, likely due to the rest of the field playing predator decks, could prevent such a scenario.

The Top 8 Picture

Shrinking the data set, the Top 8 continues the trends from the Day 2 data. Again, this isn't surprising since to make Top 8, you have to Day 2 first. However, it is undeniable that Phoenix had a very good weekend. The narrative of it being the dominate deck should continue into the foreseeable future.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Izzet Phoenix833.3%
Dredge416.7%
Amulet Titan28.3%
Mono-Green Tron28.3%
The Rock14.2%
Hollow One14.2%
Whir Prison14.2%
RG Valakut14.2%
Shadow Zoo14.2%
Grixis Death's Shadow14.2%
Bogles14.2%
Lantern Control14.2%

Izzet Phoenix was again the most populous deck by far, and won every event. That is a very impressive weekend. I posited that Phoenix's absurd metagame population at Regionals had to be an outlier, but with another week of proportionately similar results, my opinion has shifted: the numbers now present what looks more like a recurring pattern. It's not a true statistical trend yet, but if the pattern repeats in Calgary, it will be hard to deny.

Dredge taking second place is interesting, but explainable. Most of the graveyard hate I'm seeing in the decklists are one-shot effects meant to catch binned Phoenixes rather than shut down Dredge. Dredge can survive one hate card, and Surgical Extraction is hardly heavy-duty to the extent Dredge demands. What I do like is that more and more decks are bringing in Anger of the Gods alongside the one-shot hate. Dredge wins by flooding the board quickly and then recurring its threats. Eliminating the graveyard once hurts, but only matters if it catches threats before they resurrect. Anger is the perfect answer to Dredge's actual gameplan.

The Catch

I don't know exactly how the finals of the GPs played out since it was all text coverage, but I did watch SCG Philadelphia. The way the final match unfolded renewed my skepticism of Phoenix's position. I mean no offense to Austin Collins on his win, but he got very lucky in games 2 and 3 to win the Open. Game 2 saw Jonathan Orr fail to draw removal spells in an otherwise strong position and die to double Thing in the Ice. Game 3, Orr was mana screwed against what was close to a nut draw from Collins. Game 1, where both decks were playing closer to their average draws, Orr won handily.

This is the big catch with Phoenix's numbers: it needs to get lucky. I've discussed the deck at length before, but the deck is disguising some significant weaknesses by playing lots of cantrips. If it weren't for all the velocity, particularly Manamorphose, Izzet Phoenix wouldn't be a deck. Phoenix decks can keep more mediocre hands because they can just cantrip into a busted hand; Izzet Phoenix's average draw is nothing special, but it doesn't have to actually play that hand.

Healthily Warped?

The other problem I have with declaring Phoenix the Best Deck is the wider context. There's been a clear trend in the data towards Arclight Phoenix. This week also had a huge surge of Dredge decks. However, looking past those two, the format remains diverse. Plenty of non-Phoenix decks are doing well, and there's already evidence that players are adjusting and pushing back. It just isn't happening quickly enough to have an impact yet.

The 9th place UW Control deck from Philadelphia had a Circle of Protection: Red in its sideboard, but was running Supreme Verdict maindeck. Verdict was good in a Humans-heavy world, but these days, with Dredge and Phoenix everywhere, UW should consider Settle the Wreckage. The metagame is out-pacing the players. Once they catch up, I can't imagine that Phoenix's share can be maintained.

Putting it Together

On the surface, the data looks like a disaster, but digging deeper indicates that the format itself is perfectly healthy. Izzet Phoenix may have an inordinate share of big event data, but underneath that everything looks normal. I argue that Modern itself is fine even if the tournament scene is not. The lingering question is whether that is good enough.

Implications

Players have been calling for a Faithless Looting ban for a long time now. While Wizards wants to wait and see if Modern self-corrects, especially since Modern Horizons is coming, if this data keeps piling up, they're going to be pushed into taking action. I don't think Looting is the problem (it's Manamorphose), but I also don't think that Wizards is willing to risk Dredge resurging if Phoenix goes away. I hold that a ban is not necessary; Phoenix is not just beatable, but containable. But the metagame may not adjust fast enough to prevent a banning.

However, even if that does come to pass, it won't be for some time. It is critical for players to recognize the reality that Izzet Phoenix is everywhere at the big events and prepare accordingly. This may require players to switch decks to utilize maindeck hate cards, but I don't think that's necessary. Small changes, both in playstyle and sideboarding, can prove very effective.

If you're a deck that's vulnerable to Thing in the Ice's tempo tsunami, deploy threats accordingly, pacing removal judiciously. If you have the option, adjust your removal package to favor exile over destroy. I would never recommend maindeck Surgical Extraction outside of Phoenix decks because even when it's hypothetically good, it's prohibitively narrow, but Remorseful Cleric or similar maindeckable cards are excellent at stopping the dangerous Arclight Blitz.

A Classic Counterpoint

While Phoenix dominates high-level events, we don't know if it does the entire metagame. Numbers from smaller/less-publicized events show the Phoenix domination getting less obvious, to say the least; take the results from online events like Modern Challenges or Leagues. Its appearance and win rate are roughly the same as that of any other deck.

The same holds for smaller paper events. The Modern Classic Top 16 at SCG Philidelphia only had two Izzet and one Mono-Red Phoenix. The closest any Phoenix deck came to the title was sixth place. The Syracuse Classic didn't feature a single Arclight Phoenix over fourteen unique decks. When considering this year's events, Phoenix is on top of MTGGoldfish's metagame thanks its numerous big results from premier tournaments; Dredge would be level otherwise.

If the apparent warp weakens and/or disappears outside of larger SCG and Wizards events, then it appears to only exist at these large events. If this really were an Eldrazi Winter or even Grixis Death's Shadow's reign, I'd expect to see far more Izzet Phoenix at the smaller events. The metagame suggested by the overall statistics and SCG Classics speaks to a very diverse metagame, especially in comparison to the premier events. To the best of my knowledge, this dichotomy has never happened in a constructed Magic format, let alone in Modern.

Is It Real?

I'd need more data to verify this split. If the Challenges and smaller Modern events continue to be as diverse as they've been so far, that lends credence to my observation. If it is an actual effect and not just a quirk, I can think of two reasons for it existing. The first possibility is that the paper metagame is ahead of the online one, and Izzet Phoenix really is that good. This seems unlikely since MTGO has so many more events every day that it should work out the metagame and find the solutions to any metagame warp.

The second, and I think more likely, probability is that perception and the nature of the events is at work. Arclight Phoenix gets a lot of attention. If the narrative is that one deck is so much better than any other, and you're not that invested in the format, why not pick up the "best deck," especially if you already have the critical pieces? Again, Phoenix is in Standard, and in a pretty similar deck at that. Why even switch to something else?

The other problem is, frankly, laziness. For someone not particularly invested in a format as many semi-to-actual-pros are, it's much easier to join 'em than to try and beat 'em. Given that the premier events are open tournaments, it makes sense for an inordinate number of less-invested players to just jam Phoenix. They don't have the time or willingness to figure out the right cards and strategy to beat the top deck, and if it's as accessible as Phoenix, why not save yourself some time and effort? The more invested players are likely to stick to their guns, and I suspect are the ones playing in smaller events at all. In this scenario, it's less a metagame break than different player composition.

Looking Ahead

I hope that the current pattern of Izzet Phoenix domination doesn't hold. We've seen the deck constantly over the past few months, and I for one am bored of watching Phoenix decks spin their wheels into a win. If the risk of the London Mulligan supercharging Dredge, Phoenix, and other combo decks pans out, it could be the worst Pro Tour since Oath of the Gatewatch. However, I am also optimistic that this won't happen. Izzet Phoenix is very beatable if players actually put their minds to the job. There are more GPs and an SCG Open before London. Hopefully players will find the answer and implement it before then.

Unlocked: Maximizing the Insider Discord

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This week I am unlocking an article previously published on 9/11/17 for only Insiders. This column highlights the immense value of the Quiet Speculation Insider Discord chat. What is this chat? It's an exclusive Discord page where QS Insiders—people who are passionate about MTG finance and speculation—can share ideas and help each other make money.

Despite the competitive edge of the MTG finance community (especially as portrayed in social media), the QS Insiders are a collaborative bunch who share ideas selflessly to achieve common goal. This is one of my favorite aspects of the QS Discord community, but there's so much more to tap into. Check out what I had to say on this subject...I've added new commentary in Italics).

The New Most Valuable Resource?

One of the most useful MTG finance sites (besides Quiet Speculation of course) that I visit on a regular basis is MTG Stocks. Their Interests page proves to be the defining website for tracking price movement for individual cards. If something is getting bought out or if a new trend is emerging, this site will be like a beacon flashing its light on resulting price changes. For this reason, I visit the site on a daily basis.

There’s a new site that I’ve begun visiting on a daily basis now, and it is controlled by our very own Quiet Speculation. It’s behind the paywall, and this helps screen out dysfunctional content from overzealous (and impolite) Reddit-type posters. This site is professionally maintained and houses up-to-the-minute actionable information across all formats and geographies.

I'm talking, of course, about the Quiet Speculation Discord.

This may seem like an advertisement, but I’d prefer to color it as a testimonial. Not because I want to generate more subscribers for the site (though that would be nice), but because the site has truly been value-additive to my MTG finance hobby.

There have been numerous occasions where information gleaned from the QS Discord in a timely manner has led to profitable opportunity. In addition, the community being formed within the Discord fosters cooperation and support—quite the refreshing take on the hobby after dealing with all the negativity coming from Twitter these days.

Let me share a couple specific examples to illustrate my points.

Pointing Out Underpriced Cards

Within the QS Discord chat, we’re all working together to help each other make and save money from MTG finance. Of course we’re all looking out for number one, but there’s also a sense of community that leads to selfless acts of generosity. One way this manifests itself is in how people report on where to find good prices on certain cards.

For example, one Insider posted on Friday that they found a listing for an MP Sandals of Abdallah for around $4.50. They were unable to buy it profitably due to their geography, so they shared the information for someone else to capitalize upon. Given that Sandals buylists to Card Kingdom for $13, an MP copy would likely fetch $6.50.

While $2 profit isn’t going to change anyone’s lives, I instantly bought the card because I was already planning to ship Card Kingdom a buylist order in the coming days. Within two minutes the card was purchased, and now I’ll enjoy another couple bucks’ profit come time to submit my buylist.

These unplayable Reserved List cards have really pulled back hard. Now Card Kingdom offers only $7 on their buylist for NM Sandals of Abdallah.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sandals of Abdallah

I have a more recent example of this, however. Only this past week an Insider shared on Discord that Channel Fireball had relisted two SP copies of Surgical Extraction for $49.99 each (about $47.49 after using the 5% coupon). Conversations like these happen frequently and it's a testament to the cooperation you'll experience within this community.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surgical Extraction

Something a little more lucrative happened a few weeks ago. People were watching all of the Reserved List foils skyrocket and they were scouring the internet for any remaining opportunities. A fellow Insider made a comment that they were targeting judge foil Morphlings in the $10 range. I looked across the internet, but I couldn’t find any copies for less than $15.

I said as much, and the Insider sent me a link to where they found copies listed at $10. Respectfully, I purchased only three copies out of the dozen or so they had listed, careful to leave a few behind for others. This price increase stood the test of time. Card Kingdom now pays $26 on their buylist for foil Morphlings.

Sales Reporting

The information people share about where to find good prices on cards can directly lead to profits. That’s always nice, but such opportunities don’t arise every day. Despite this, there are still many ways of garnering useful information about the MTG market to gain a competitive edge. One thread of the Discord I pay close attention to is the one on Sales Reporting.

This isn’t a “humble brag” thread meant to show off wealth or make people regret not participating in a given spec. That kind of negativity plagues Twitter, and there’s no place for it among the QS Insiders. This is a place where people share data on sales they’ve made using neutral, informative language. When you strip out the bragging component, such data is extremely valuable when understanding what cards are selling for and at what rate.

Some recent examples:

  • “Sold a foil Stonybrook Banneret for $6.”
  • “Sold a played Exorcist for $4.75.”
  • “Just sold 2 NM Legends Concordant Crossroads on TCG for $68.”
  • “My LP Singing Trees finally sold for $90 ea, also sold a playset of Rapid Fires at $10s…also some LP Citanul Druids for $7…same buyer for all 3.”
There was an error retrieving a chart for Citanul Druid

Here are some updated examples:

  • 18 Oath of Teferi $2.25/ea four buyers
  • A few notable sale from the past couple days: 4x Eldrazi Mimic $.63 ea; 3 UMA Ancient Tomb LP $20.54 ea
  • 3 NM Arena Rector $16.98 ea — diff buyers; NM foil Vizier of the Menagerie $14.99; 2 LP foil Kozilek, the Great Distortion $27 ea via FB
There was an error retrieving a chart for Arena Rector

Do you see how this information could be useful? The information is helpful when trying to decide whether or not you want to move into a spec. Or if you have copies you’re looking to sell, you have a frame of reference for what others are selling their copies for.

I also like this information because it’s cross-platform; some people sell on eBay, some sell on TCGplayer, and some run shops and sell locally. Since I only sell on eBay, it’s helpful to see what kind of prices people are getting on TCGplayer because sometimes (especially on older cards) there is a large price discrepancy between the two.

Insider Coverage

The last benefit of the QS Insider Discord I want to explain in depth is the Insider Coverage. We all get the email alerts from Chaz during a Pro Tour or some other major MTG event. These are helpful and well-written; however, they aren’t real-time. Note: these ARE more real-time now as Chaz really upped his game recently on Mythic Championship coverage. Multiple emails are sent throughout the weekend highlighting trends and actionable news.

Enter: the QSCoverage thread in the Discord.

We have QS Insiders doing thorough coverage of major events and reporting their observations live-time in the QS Discord. The most recent example of this was at Hascon, where we had a QS Insider snap pictures of many of the Iconic Masters cards as they were being spoiled/opened. Twitter caught many of these too, but it was very helpful to have all the information consolidated in a single thread. Additionally, others add commentary around the spoiled cards that contain useful finance tidbits.

Here are a few unprompted remarks about the coverage from Hascon last weekend:

  • “The coverage has been phenomenal. I have to confess that I stopped my monthly subscription a few weeks ago. But, between the Trader Tools enhancements and the coverage, I am thoroughly impressed. I can't afford not to be a member. Kudos all around.”
  • “It was quite delightful.”
  • “Yeah, because of [Insider Coverage], I was able to move out of my foil Supreme Verdicts and my non-foil Bloodghasts very quickly, in time to actually come out slightly ahead (with store credit). Phew!”
There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodghast

The benefits are loud and clear. The coverage is actionable and specific. Best believe this sort of coverage will be repeated many times at major events going forward.

Since Hascon, we've had QS Insiders providing live coverage of every Mythic Championship. When Insiders visit GP's, they may also share hotlists from each of the on-site vendors. All of this information is valuable to track.

Wrapping It Up

There are many other benefits to the QS Insider Discord. There’s an active buy/sell/trade thread. There’s a thread that focuses on price increases, which can be a helpful way to get real-time pricing information in advance of the morning refresh of MTG Stocks. There’s also a place to share feedback and technical issues. There's also a newer thread where people post coupons and deals—very helpful for tracking TCGplayer kickbacks, eBay coupons, and vendor coupons (Channel Fireball offers these often). It’s a well-rounded community that focuses on MTG finance in real-time.

The best way to benefit from this resource is to stay actively engaged and check back in a few times a day. This may seem like a tall task, but the benefits are clearly there. It’s one of those “you get out what you put in” type of services—if you’re truly serious about using MTG to make money or to make the hobby cheaper, then the time investment is well worth it.

Thanks to the chat there, I’ve increased my engagement with the community while simultaneously boosting profits. It may sound too good to be true, but I’ve tried to provide distinct examples of where the tool helped me make more money. I’ve also returned the favor by reporting on good deals I find and trends I uncover. (Recently I saw an underpriced LP Foil Surgical Extraction and I alerted the community so someone in the Discord could grab it.) It’s a thriving community with many contributors aligned to a singular purpose.

If two minds are better than one, then a couple dozen minds are certainly far superior. In today’s world of connectivity, there’s no reason to go solo when delving into MTG finance. Leveraging the hive mind is the next logical step up, and I strongly encourage those of you not involved to stop by, speak up, and take advantage of this service that you’re already paying for by being a QS Insider!

…

Sigbits

  • Of course I still have a couple Reserved List cards on my radar that I want to share! Let’s begin with Ramses Overdark, a rare out of Legends. Star City Games is sold out at $14.99 and I have seen copies gradually bleed out of the market. SCG now has a bunch in stock at $34.99. There are 19 sellers with English copies, and the cheapest LP will run you about $10. It won’t be long before someone takes notice of this low stock, makes a move, and it posts on MTG Stocks as $50. This peaked at $28 on MTG Stocks—not quite $50, but more than double its price when this article was first published.
  • The other Legends card I have my eye on (thanks to the Discord chat) is Boris Devilboon. The artwork on this card is so cool, so I was happy to grab a copy for myself. But looking at TCGplayer now, I see 11 copies for sale across nine vendors. You can still get an LP copy for under $10, but once the cheapest few are bought, that NM copy listed for $28 will cause a major spike in the market and catalyze panic-buying that will send prices higher. Boris spiked to $25 and is now around $18 on MTG Stocks.
  • The Saffron Olive effect strikes again! This time, Psionic Blast is getting hyped because he used the card in a deck on stream not long ago. It’s easy to forget this classic card is Modern-legal thanks to its Timeshifted version. It’s also useful in Old School MTG—a rare combination! Star City Games is sold out of Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and Timeshifted copies. They have one SP foil in stock (which likely won’t last) and then a bunch of the underappreciated textless version. I’d keep an eye on this one! I don't think the Saffron effect lasted, but the Old School demand is real. SCG has NM Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards priced at $599.99, $274.99, and $59.99, respectively. At least they have a few in stock now!

Outlook Grim: Testing Mainboard Leyline in BGx

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While chatting with a friend who hasn't played Modern in a while about mostly unrelated topics, I was asked whether Leyline of the Void could be a reasonable consideration for contemporary mainboards . He'd become interested in the topic after reading this article. "In what deck?" I asked, believing myself aware of the card's niche deckbuilding requirements. "BGx," he answered. And with that, I set about trying to squeeze Leyline into a Jund 60.

What follows is an outline of my thought process, a decklist, and the conclusions I made while building and testing Leyline Jund. It examines what Leyline requires of a deck that runs it and considers the subtle effects Arclight Phoenix has had on Modern's brewing parameters.

Leyline's World

This brew-to-be needed to account for having 4 Leyline of the Void in the mainboard. Card selection would be appealing to prevent from drawing the enchantment; a method to cash in on copies stranded in hand was also necessary. Finally, beyond disrupting enough to compete in the aggression-slanted Modern, the deck also needed enough speed to safeguard against having such a long game that drawing Leyline became inevitable.

In summary, the deck would need:

  • A way to not draw Leyline
  • A way to trade in drawn Leylines
  • A solid proactive plan

Looting and Delirium

I started with the obvious. Last time, too, that I decided to "fix" midrange decks by giving them additional proaction and card selection, Faithless Looting was a lock pretty quickly. I also wanted a way to benefit from binned Leylines, and turned to the graveyard myself.

Green was already interesting for a couple of reasons. It's long been a go-to color for midrange decks, in no small part thanks to Tarmogoyf. Goyf excels alongside a highly disruptive gameplan when pilots want to close things out relatively quickly (as in, not grind-you-to-death slowly like UW Control does). Tarmogoyf is harder to just throw our support behind than it used to be, but this shell incidentally does a lot of things that help the green beater out. And discarded Leylines grow Goyf even larger.

Another draw to green was delirium, or Goyf's themed mechanic from the future. Ryan Overturf's nigh-undefeated Temur Phoenix deck from February integrated Traverse the Ulvenwald to frightening effect alongside Arclight Phoenix. We were already on Faithless Looting, so why not toss that plan in ourselves? Integrating Phoenix would give us the proactivity boost also needed—we'd just need Manamorphose. As for delirium, I figured a set of Mishra's Bauble would do the trick.

Black Over Blue

Black, too, is a classical midrange color. Although we don't necessarily need black-producing lands to run Leyline of the Void, the enchantment is often seen alongside Swamps for the simple reason that it's nice to have the option of hard-casting it. But factors other than pedigree sealed the deal for me on black over blue.

Being that I'd already committed to Faithless Looting and a beefy graveyard, Grim Flayer seemed like a good fit, and would end up being the best threat in the deck. Flayer's obvious application: he's an undercosted, trampling body. Less so: dumping Arclight Phoenix and flash-backing Lootings for random plusses; growing Tarmogoyf. Perks that only hit home after a few days of experimentation: preventing us from ever again drawing Leyline of the Void; setting up killer Arclight Phoenix turns by stacking Manamorphose into one-drop. Flayer just does everything we want our creatures to do. It even operates passably under heavy-duty grave-hate, sifting past the dead stuff (Traverse, Tarmogoyf) and finding the heavy-hitters.

Nothing says black midrange deck like targeted discard. But I actually wanted to try those spells in a Phoenix shell before being met with the Leyline Challenge. I'd observed a trend in the metagame wherein, outside of Leyline-boasting aggro-combo decks, players swapped out their heavy-duty graveyard hate (Rest in Peace, even Nihil Spellbomb) for the much-lauded (not least by me) Surgical Extraction. Opponents like to save Surgical for the Phoenix trigger, and why shouldn't they? But such a line is deathly soft to Inquisition of Kozilek, which even adds towards the Phoenix trigger count. Manamorphoseinto Inquisition into Looting sets up turn two Phoenix without ever opening us to a blowout.

Targeted discard also curves into and therefore naturally supports the two-drop plan, itself weak to Fatal Push (which, as David noted yesterday, is deceptively strong against Phoenix). On-theme is Collective Brutality, another Push-sniper, which has added utility here as another means to discard Phoenix or Leylines. Brutality just plays a lot of roles in general thanks to its diverse text box, something always welcomed by midrange decks, which are notorious for sometimes having the wrong answer at the wrong time.

The Big Bang

I'd managed to fill all my requirements at this point.

  • A way to not draw Leyline: Grim Flayer (filter), Mishra's Bauble (scry)
  • A way to trade in drawn Leylines: Faithless Looting, Collective Brutality (both discard)
  • A solid proactive plan: fast Phoenixes, big Goyfs and Flayers

Here's what the list looked like after a few days of tweaking.

Leyline Jund, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Grim Flayer
4 Arclight Phoenix

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Enchantments

4 Leyline of the Void

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Collective Brutality

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Blood Crypt
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest

Sideboard

4 Fatal Push
2 Collective Brutality
1 Thoughtseize
3 Alpine Moon
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Hazoret the Fervent

Other Options

Some cards I wanted but ended up omitting were Tarfire and Fatal Push. The former could further grow Goyf out of the library with Grim Flayer, or from the hand with Looting. But I figured it was win-more and not worth trading in the walker-and-creature-killing Lightning Bolt; 3 damage is plenty more than 2 in today's Modern.

Push answers the most played creatures in Modern, a roster now boasting Thing in the Ice, Crackling Drake, and Pteramander. But its value drops sharply in the face of creatureless strategies such as the making-a-comeback Ad Nauseam. I wanted all our mainboard spells to be ones we could fire off at will to animate Arclight Phoenix, so Push was relegated to the sideboard. Because of its relevance in some matchups, though, it locks up four slots there.

Sideboard

We've mentioned the Pushes already, but another card in large numbers here is Alpine Moon. Tron continues to pose a problem for this sort of deck despite our supposed speed, and the Moons round out that matchup.

The rest of the board contains additional interaction and a set of cards included to sidestep graveyard hate: some planeswalkers and Hazoret the Fervent. I've found Hazoret devastating against the control decks that tend to employ Rest in Peace, and think it's a natural fit here.

Earlier incarnations of the sideboard packed Assassin's Trophy to deal with enemy Leylines. But I think if you expect Leyline and Rest, it's best to play something else. This deck was built with beating Surgical in mind.

Strategic Ceiling

One thing that makes Phoenix decks so good is their ability to proact while interacting, or to create board presence by virtue of disrupting opponents. Thing in the Ice best represents this versatility: the Horror bounces an opponent's board and hits like a truck at the same time. Similarly, hitting opposing creatures with Lightning Bolt or using Faithless Looting to dig into other forms of interaction trigger the Arclight Phoenixes in the graveyard, rewarding pilots for their trouble.

Leyline Jund has some of that going on, but less. It's still capable of the double-Phoenix nut on turn two with Manamorphose. Traverse the Ulvenwald makes such a blitz more reliable around turn three or four, by when we're likely to have delirium.

The deck's primary threats, Tarmogoyf and Grim Flayer, don't offer much in the way of interaction. They do preserve Thing's "drawback" of taking up our turn two. These two-drops make up for this failing by basically being awesome.

Tarmogoyf is regularly 5/6 and sometimes 6/7 in this deck, but Grim Flayer is the real show-stopper. I've extolled its virtues above, but want to go into more detail about stacking Manamorphose turns. Putting the instant on top makes for easy bird triggers given flashback on Faithless; all we need is a fourth land and a one-drop, meaning we can trigger Phoenix when light on cards (Izzet Phoenix has the same possibility thanks to all their blue cantrips). If that one-drop's Traverse, we can even set up another Phoenix reanimation!

Deck Issues

As with some other midrange hybrids I've proposed, Leyline Jund ended up being too unfocused to work consistently. It proved tough to get the pieces to gel in-game; sometimes we'd start strong with Leyline into discard spell but then be drawing Phoenixes instead of two-drops, for instance. The smoothest remedy might be to axe the Phoenix package, but there are no other great options for a proactive plan in a midrange deck—we're basically just doomed to grind. Our best bet would be Scavenging Ooze, which is highly conditional and bad with Leyline.

Unsurprisingly, then, my best games involved quickly sticking a two-drop and clocking while disrupting. Arclight felt like icing on the cake when it worked, and even a bit win-more, other than in the rare occasions where I'd get the nut with Looting and Manamorphose on turn two.

Brewing Takeaways

Usually, tweaking builds leaves me optimistic about Modern's many possibilities. But my main insights this time around don't bode well for the format's famous diversity.

Stricter Parameters

My own focus problems and self-imposed limitations aside, I found it difficult to strategize with Phoenix decks in the format. Most of what I wanted to do immediately struck me as worse or soft to the same kind of hate, leading me to adopt an "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" mentality and pack the bird myself. I think that with such an effective xerox deck in Modern, the parameter bar is raised significantly on brews, making it harder to innovate something worthwhile. If I'm right, and not just bad, that take clouds Phoenix's potential future in terms of artificial format adjustment (read: bannings). But perhaps its share will dwindle and I'll come to see it as less of a threat myself, as David recently posited in light of the deck's (apparently outlier) Regionals successes last weekend.

Thesis Settled

I did come to one conclusion I think might have been obvious to some readers before I even started, and one I feel confident about asserting after this experiment: Leyline of the Void does not work in the mainboard of midrange decks. I think there might be a case for maining it in some decks, but those decks are almost always aggro-combo. The faster the game is over, the less we feel the pain of having functional dead draws. Keeping a great hand without Leyline that happens to get disrupted guarantees trouble if pilots aim to go long. I think this aspect of the card explains why we rarely see Leyline in midrange decks at all, even in the sideboard, while it's a common player for more aggressive decks like Hollow One.

Live to Rise Another Day

As with all my experiments, goofing around with Leyline in a Goyf deck was, at least, a hoot. If you have any crazy ideas yourself, drop me a line in the comments—any challenge that piques my interest is at least worth a decklist!

Speculating on War of the Spark and Modern Horizons

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War of the Spark is still over a month away. Spoiler season hasn’t started, but what little information we do have has been enough to have a major impact on the market.

It was revealed that planeswalkers define the set, with 36 new planeswalker cards, and one appearing in each booster pack. This fact has sent the market into a frenzy, from Commander and casual players who have new toys to play with, to Standard players that could see a metagame defined by powerful planeswalkers.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Chain Veil

The Chain Veil has doubled in price since February, now over $30. Its ability to use planeswalkers multiple times a turn makes it a must in the planeswalker-centric Commander decks sure to pick up in popularity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Amber

A Commander card with Standard crossover is Mox Amber, which could be elevated to serious competitive playability with the release of cheap new planeswalkers to enable it. It grew to nearly $20 this week, but has fallen back to the mid teens.

I believe this growth is based on hype that’s unlikely to translate to Mox Amber becoming a top-tier Standard staple. I can’t recommend buying in at this price, which is double the $8 it sat just a few weeks ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Teferi

Another card that goes hand-in-hand with planeswalkers is Oath of Teferi. It hasn’t been a serious card in Standard yet, but it could be in a deck with multiple cheap planeswalkers. A new planeswalker appealing to blink with Oath of Teferi’s secondary ability could be enough to push it over the top. It has more than doubled to over $1.50, but there’s a little room to grow and a low long-term downside given its casual appeal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kamahl's Druidic Vow

Legendary sorceries from Dominaria benefit from new planeswalkers to help enable them. Two in particular play well with planeswalkersL Kamahl's Druidic Vow, which can dig into them, and Yawgmoth's Vile Offering, which can both reanimate and destroy them. Both have shown signs of growth, growing about $0.10 each, but are still well-under $0.50—a potential bargain given their uniqueness and long-term potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Immortal Sun

Much of the Standard growth related to War of the Spark has been planeswalker hosers, which will become more important when planeswalkers take over the metagame. The prime example is The Immortal Sun, which shuts all planeswalkers off completely as the ultimate hoser. That has driven the price up over $25.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorcerous Spyglass

A more accessible card, in terms of both mana and current price, is Sorcerous Spyglass. It’s a great sideboard answer to planeswalkers for nearly any deck. It’s also growing as a staple in Modern in the Whir Prison deck. Massive online growth from around 0.1 tix to 0.7 could indicate some imminent growth in paper, where its price has sagged to $2, the lowest it has been since spiking from $1 to $5 last May.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bedevil

Another good answer to planeswalkers is Bedevil, which has shown lackluster performance so far relative to expectation. It’s not for lack of being a quality card, and if a ton of new targets enter the metagame then Bedevil’s stock will surely rise.

It has grown from around 0.1 tix to over 0.3 this month. A rise from $3 to $4 could head higher, but its gold nature will keep it from hitting a price over $10 like the more accessible Vraska's Contempt.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vraska, Golgari Queen

A very creative way to kill planeswalkers is Vraska, Golgari Queen. It can only kill a couple of current planeswalkers, but if War of the Spark contains many low-cost planeswalkers as expected, then Vraska will become a very useful tool for taking them down.

Vraska, Golgari Queen also comes with the benefit of being a planeswalker, which War of the Spark might make more important with various support cards. This planeswalker focus brings to attention the ones we currently have in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Cunning Castaway

Jace, Cunning Castaway is notable for being cheap to cast, and it’s a bargain at just a couple dollars. As a blue Jace planeswalker, it also has decent long-term prospects, or at least a high floor that should keep it from ever becoming bulk status.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Court Cleric

One of the most interesting specs on War of the Spark is Court Cleric, from the M19 Planeswalker decks. Each of these decks has a creature that benefits from having a planeswalker of a given name, and War of the Spark means new planeswalkers.

Court Cleric is the most promising of these creatures, not a terrible card by itself but actively great with an Ajani. It already has one Ajani to use—a new one that costs three or less mana might push Court Cleric over the top into a real playable. Who knows what that would do to the price, because so far no Planeswalker deck card has ever broken through as a real staple. Its online price has grown from 1.2 tix to 1.6 in the past few weeks, so there’s definitely interest.

Modern Horizons

Modern Horizons is still a few months away, but it’s also having an impact. The biggest has been on the price of big staples that we know won’t be reprinted, specifically the enemy fetchlands. There also seems to be movement on allied fetches, which as cheaper alternatives might be better spec targets.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphinx's Revelation

This week there was a spike in the price of Sphinx's Revelation online, more than doubling from around 0.4 tix to 1. My theory is it’s based on speculation over the reprinting of Counterspell, which many have theorized will be included.

This reprint would certainly elevate blue strategies like Azorius Control, and could bring about a surge in decks playing cards like Sphinx's Revelation. The current price around $3 is an all-time low for the card, so there is room to grow.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

I’ve noticed Jace, the Mind Sculptor has been steadily on the rise online, starting in January independently of any Modern Horizons announcement, but something like a Counterspell reprint would only accelerate this growth. Its paper price has been growing just as steadily. After bottoming out at around $80 in August, six months after the Masters 25 reprint, now it's up to $110 and shows no signs of slowing down.

Metagame Snapshot: SCG Regionals Analysis

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With data reduced to a relative trickle and the overall metagame picture clouded, there hasn't been much information to work with. However, the data from SCG Regionals is always a strong indicator of the US metagame, so today I'll be looking at the data. While there is very significant result to dig into, the overall picture is very positive for Modern's health. Hopefully, the outlier begins to correct itself, or it will make for a poor Pro Tour Mythic Championship in London.

Regionals Data

As I'm writing this, ten of eleven Regionals have posted their Top 8 (why is New Jersey always last to report?), but it will take a truly insane result from there to change what I'm seeing in the available data. In the past, Regionals have been fairly staid affairs that don't show much deviation from the established metagame. This one is a different story.

Deck NameTotal
Izzet Phoenix18
Mono-Green Tron5
UW Control5
Amulet Titan4
Dredge4
Ad Nauseam4
Affinity4
Whir Prison2
Humans2
As Foretold2
Hardened Scales2
Burn2
Mono-White Martyr2
Colorless Eldrazi2
Merfolk2
Titan Shift2
The Rock2
Grixis Death's Shadow2
Grixis Delver1
UW Spirits1
Counters Company1
Eldrazi Taxes1
Storm1
GB Tron1
Shadow Zoo1
Jund1
Infect1
Bogles1
Abzan1
Bant Spirits1
Jeskai Tempo1
Grixis Control1

That is... an anomalous amount of Izzet Phoenix. It's a domination the standing that I've not seen since Eldrazi Winter. On the one hand, I'm not surprised. Phoenix is a popular deck and has been doing well. However, this quantity of placements is in such excess over the other data that I can only regard it as an outlier result. I refuse to believe the deck is that much better than anything else.

Other than the Izzet explosion, the results are very much what I'd expect. The overall picture looks very similar to what I'd expect for Modern, and shows considerable strategic diversity. This gives further credence to Phoenix being an outlier rather than a Tier 0 situation, and warrants further investigation.

Firebird Over the Format

First of all, let me be clear: This is not an Eldrazi Winter scenario. I know that there's plenty of grumbling about Faithless Looting going around, but Phoenix is far from unbeatable. It is a powerful deck, but it has a number of vulnerabilities that can be, and in some cases already are being, exploited.

Natural Result

Given the amount of visibility and coverage that Arclight Phoenix has received in Modern, it is natural for it to have this level of presence. The decks of a given tier are fairly even power-wise. What separates them is popularity and relative positioning. And Phoenix is very popular and very well-positioned.

Being the type of deck that players have longed for in Modern is another draw. It's fun to emulate Legacy with lots of cantrips before ending the game with big threats, and Izzet Phoenix does that arguably better than any other deck in Modern's history. The other factor is that there's a pretty similar deck in Standard. While not all the Standard version run Phoenix itself, the core gameplay of lots of cantrips is still there. It just makes financial sense for some players to have one deck in both formats.

These factors are bolstered by Phoenix being very well-positioned, thanks in large part to Thing in the Ice. Without Thing, Izzet would have to dedicate more space for creature interaction, since it's quite vulnerable when it doesn't immediately spit out 3/2 fliers. Thing solves all the creature problems and exploits the tempo advantage perfectly. It is also the perfect time for Thing. The end of 2018 was defined by creature decks, specifically Bant Spirits with Humans holdover. Control, Tron, and midrange were already down, leaving the door open for a superior tempo deck to arise and feast on the aggro decks. Between the understandable popularity of a new deck relevant in several formats and laudable perfect positioning, I'm not surprised that Phoenix is everywhere. But I'd argue that doesn't mean it's necessarily too powerful for Modern.

Power Source

Why is Phoenix able to win so much? Phoenix naturally integrates two very different, but synergistic, gameplans. On the one hand, it has the plan most players fixate on, the Arclight Blitz. This is the broken start when Faithless Looting discards two Phoenixes, which leap into battle the following turn after a flurry of Manamorphose-fueled cantriping. Six damage per turn is threatening, though not the fastest clock, and that's also the limit of the attack. If the Phoenixes are dealt with, Izzet only has four Lightning Bolts to finish the job. I'd argue that this is a bonus angle of attack, while the primary one is a more traditional, reactive tempo plan.

Against creature decks, flipping Thing annihilates their board and leaves a 7/8 to crash in with. That is an enormous defensive-reversal of a tempo swing. Even if there aren't creatures to bounce, attacking with a 7/8 on turn three is very powerful. Supported by Phoenixes and the other creatures, Thing threatens an overwhelming board position. However, it is very fragile. Without that enormous tempo swing, all Izzet has are big ground pounders and some fliers, and not too many of them. This should be easy for control decks to clean up and simply dominate. The fact that it isn't happening is puzzling.

Threat-Light and Fancy Free

Furthermore, I don't believe the tempo Thing plan nor the Arclight Blitz strategies are the core strategy of Izzet Phoenix. They're actually payoffs; and the real gameplan is to be Stormless Storm. What Izzet Phoenix is really good at is playing lots of cantrips in a turn. This does nothing by itself, but in the presence of a Thing or dead firebirds, it causes the deck to explode to life. Cantriping  constantly means that eventually, Izzet will find one or more of its payoff cards. The question is whether that will be good enough to win. If it happens early, then it stands a good chance of working. However, the longer Izzet goes without anything on the board, the lower its chances are, regardless of what's in hand.

Simply put, Izzet Phoenix is meant to burn through cards and hopes to turn that into a win. There's no guarantee. While directly attacking that engine is a fine strategy, I'd actually recommend playing without fear. While Izzet is very capable of out-tempoing opponents in a variety of ways, that's the only way it can win. I'd go deeper and say that Izzet Phoenix is the most threat-light "good deck" I've seen in quite some time. At most there are 4 Arclight Phoenix, 4 Thing in the Ice, and 2-6 other threats in some combination of Pteramander and Crackling Drake. Everything is vulnerable to Fatal Push, and Phoenix leans heavily on recurring its namesake threat and drawing lots of cards to mask this vulnerability.

I'd expect Jund to pick up, as it has the removal and maindeck Scavenging Oozees to reliably out-grind Phoenix decks. Phoenix is very good at the moment because the format is removal-light. Given that Anger of the Gods is another maindeckable answer to Phoenixes (and to Dredge), the stage is set for midrange and control decks to start performing.

Change Your Sideboard

So why no midrange? I suspect perception is at fault again. Players are fixated on the Arclight Blitz, and are over-preparing for that attack rather than considering the deck as a whole. Some think that Surgical Extraction is necessary or even maindeckable, but I disagree. A few tweaks is all it takes to deal with Phoenix because, again, the deck relies on small numbers of threats and/or attacking with a swarm of firebirds, and depends on maintaining high velocity. As a Spirits player, Eidolon of Rhetoric is an extremely potent card against Phoenix. Most Phoenix lists run at most two Lightning Axes, so a single Rattlechains can seal the game with Rhetoric in play. Outside of Spirits, Damping Sphere is also quite potent, though easier to push past.

Still, other players are opting for more direct approaches. Most of the UW players in the sample picked up on Phoenix's vulnerabilities and have Settle the Wreckage and Celestial Purge to complement Path to Exile. Exile solves recursion, and Settle's better than Supreme Verdict in a recursive world. There's also the option to think laterally: a number of UW players took a page from 90's Magic and ran Circle of Protection: Red. A mooted Phoenix or Drake may as well be eliminated, and the Phoenix decks don't really run answers to enchantments.

For non-white decks, graveyard hate is always an option, but the Regionals results indicate the best option was just to ignore Phoenix. Besides UW Control, all the top-performing decks were proactive, and as fast as Phoenix. Since Phoenix has very specific ways to interact, more specialized decks just bulldozed through, or dodged Thing and won anyway. This speaks to the vulnerability of Phoenix and suggests a new cycling in the metagame, though more data is necessary to say for sure.

The Rest of Modern

Again, Phoenix outlier aside, Modern looks quite healthy. There are a small number of decks with four or more results, but most are twofers and singletons. A few results are worth highlighting, as they showcase the impact of Phoenix's popularity.

UW Control as Phoenix-Killer

The first thing to discuss is UW being tied for second-most successful deck at Regionals. I've always thought the deck was underrated and unfairly dismissed. However, there have only been a few instances when UW has seen the play I think it should. Players always bemoan how hard it is to play control in an open metagame, but those that do have considerable success when they're prepared. As Regionals demonstrates, UW Control has a fantastic matchup against the most popular decks if built correctly. The only Regionals where UW Control and Izzet Phoenix coexisted was Durham's.

The Return of Ad Nauseam

Given that it all but disappeared from the metagame last year, Ad Nauseam's four Top 8's are very surprising. Between the return of Storm in 2017 and Humans dominating 2018, there hasn't been space for Ad Nauseam in Modern. It was too vulnerable to Humans, particularly Meddling Mage, and much slower than Storm, so it just couldn't compete. Additionally, Ironworks sat in a similar niche, but thanks to Engineered Explosives, Myr Retriever, and Scrap Trawler, it was never as vulnerable to disruption as Ad Nauseam.

The past few months have changed everything. Obviously, losing the competition from Ironworks is a boon, but that wouldn't be enough on its own; Ad Nauseam was already in decline before Ironworks became a thing. The real secret is Phoenix's rise. The obvious benefit of Phoenix being the most popular deck in Modern is that it doesn't interact with Ad Nauseam's combo. At most, Izzet Phoenix has a couple Izzet Charms maindeck and a couple Spell Pierce and/or Dispel in the sideboard. That just isn't enough against a spell-based combo with Pact of Negation backup. As Ad Nauseam can buy extra time with Phyrexian Unlife and Angel's Grace, it has a very good matchup.

The secondary benefit is the impact Phoenix is having on the metagame. Thing being everywhere puts Humans is in a bad spot, and the loss of a major predator lets the prey thrive. Furthermore, it is changing player's focus away from relevant interaction. Phoenix makes players care about the battlefield and graveyard, and focus their interaction there. Ad Nauseum doesn't care about either, and thus is gaining equity. UW Control should be a bad matchup for Ad Nauseam because of all the counters, but those are being replaced by removal. I expect this trend of decks riding Phoenix's coattails to continue for some time.

London Ahead

The are a few more GP's ahead of Mythic Championship London. It will be exciting to see whether players further adapt to the Phoenix metagame, and how those adaptations hold up with the London Mulligan in practice.

Tales from the Buylist #5 – Modern in Flux!

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Monday's Banned and Restricted announcement has got a lot of people talking about the future of Modern. No changes to any format can have just as much impact on the price of cards as a banning or unbanning would.

A lot of cards are flying out the door and have me wondering if any of these speculations hold any water. Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings had the biggest targets on their head due to a lot of chatter post-MagicFest Los Angeles, and a high-profile examination from format expert Matt Nass and Pro Tour Hall-of-Famer LSV.

Wizards appears to be taking a hands-off approach for now, possibly until the release of Modern Horizons in June. Many Modern players are left wondering about the future of their format, and are starting to move in on staple cards that will dodge the Horizons reprint.

The Fetchlands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

Scalding Tarn is almost a $100 card, and that is absolutely insane. We saw it approach these heights in 2016 before the eventual reprint in Modern Masters 2017 as a rare. This did a lot to curb its price, but it has recovered in a big way, now at an all-time high for non-foil copies. Being a four-of in Izzet Phoenix lists, which seems to be the prevailing strategy for the moment, has made it impossible to keep these in stock for many retail sources.

I see a lot of discussion about the Zendikar fetches in our Insider Discord, and the significance of the possible substitutes in the Khans of Tarkir allied fetchlands. New Izzet Phoenix players on a budget will naturally look to Flooded Strand, Polluted Delta, and Bloodstained Mire as substitutions, which will put pressure on their prices as well.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodstained Mire

Just like the years prior to Khans of Tarkir's release, fetches desperately need a reprint. If you can get them at below-market prices, I suggest picking them up now for play purposes.

While not in the very near future, the risk of reprint is always there. Wizards showed their willingness to introduce fetches into Standard with Khans to inject more supply, and I'd be willing to bet they would do it again once the Ravnica shocklands are gone from Standard. Now more than ever, these will be the most important cards in any Modern player's collection.

Faithless Looting vs Ancient Stirrings Decks

Izzet Phoenix is the face of the format for the moment, replacing Humans and Death's Shadow before it in recent years. That being said, there are still powerful decks like Dredge, Amulet Titan, Hardened Scales Affinity, and Tron running around the format. These decks being the dominant strategies put the format at risk of actually devolving into something like this tweet would suggest.

https://twitter.com/josephahorton_/status/1103084167850545153

I make it no secret that I dislike the texture of Modern lately, as a casual player of the format. I've felt that Modern was in a place where decision-making mattered far less than in Standard or Legacy for more than a year now. Choosing to play a deck that interacts with the opponent in a meaningful way is how I and many others enjoy Magic. Modern punishes you most harshly for doing that.

Regardless of what I think, many Modern diehards, especially tournament grinders, could care less and will continue to play regardless of the format health. This will fuel price movement on key cards from decks that can play either Ancient Stirrings or Faithless Looting.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Opal

Mox Opal is many years out from its last printing in Modern Masters 2015, and I don't foresee it coming back in any supplemental set any time soon. As long as Affinity and Lantern Control decks are viable, people will continue seeking out playsets of this card. It's not unreasonable to say that this could be the next $100 staple in Modern, especially if it does well in a premier-level event. Supply of these is still relatively low compared to most playable mythics in Modern, and it won't take much to see upward movement.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Everybody's favorite turn-three play has recently seen a reprint in Ultimate Masters, and is at a decent discount of around $60. Jamming high-CMC permanents that can completely steal games is a solid game plan for the current metagame.

It's not always the best deck in the room, but Tron strategies are historically very well positioned decks, and often rely on the power of Ancient Stirrings to find the pieces they need. Like many are advocating, picking up Ultimate Masters copies of prominent Modern and Legacy cards is a solid place to park your money.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is by far more powerful than Karn for changing a game state on the fly, and is currently at an all-time high. This card proves difficult to reprint as an eight-cost planeswalker, and is from a small, less opened set. Ugin's price has grown at a steady rate since its printing and is fast approaching the $70 mark. Most Tron decks only run one or two of these, but that cost is necessary when so many go-wide strategies like Dredge demand a board wipe that exiles.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Life from the Loam

Dredge cards have been so frequently reprinted these days that many of them are at their historical low since Modern's inception. I'm highlighting Life from the Loam specifically here, as it is the most expensive card with the keyword "dredge" in the deck.

The Dredge shell is actually quite inexpensive, and you'll find yourself spending far more on the lands and the required Leyline of the Void in the sideboard. Copperline Gorge and Blackcleave Cliffs are often featured in these lists, and continue to rise in price as they dodge reprint.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

The current boogeyman of the format is pushing up higher numbers every week, and shows no sign of slowing. Confidence in this card should rise after no bans this Monday, and players who were on the fence will likely start seeking playsets of this card for play.

Manamorphose and Thing in the Ice are cards to watch here alongside Arclight, as they are likely going to be in the sale cart. Expect Surgical Extraction to continue its absurd growth over the coming months.

The Rest of the Format

Funny tweets aside, there are still deck choices that will create investment opportunities in the short term here. Here are cards that I think many people are sleeping on, and will probably be seeing a lot more of in the near future.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

Primeval Titan is one of the central pieces in Scapeshift and Amulet of Vigor strategies. Players looking to take advantage of the lack of sideboard slots dedicated to graveyard and artifact hate will be seriously considering these decks.

An interesting card that is shared by these two deck is Summoner's Pact. Both of these decks need to summon the Titan as soon as possible to compete with a developing board state, and are easily able to pay the upkeep cost after finding a few lands from the ETB and combat triggers from Primeval Titan.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

I generally have a pretty miserable time playing Cryptic Command decks in Modern, and that has largely led me to take a break from the format over the past year. That hasn't stopped more proficient players from abusing the powerful suite of control cards, nor the advent of Teferi, Hero of Dominaria in Modern.

I feel that the gamble of blind Terminus flips has largely contributed to the success of UW strategies, and this may be where players like myself gravitate to should Modern Horizons bring in tools like Counterspell, or—dare I say it—Force of Will and Daze.

The spoiling of Cabal Therapist seems like a signal that we won't be getting true-blue reprints of powerful effects like FoW, but I think it's time to allow actual factual Counterspell into the format. This is anecdotal at best, but I've seen quite a few orders for Counterspells of every kind going out the door. I expect movement on cards like Snapcaster Mage and Celestial Colonnade should this be the case.

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The fact that Burn continues to thrive having to face such degenerate strategies is comforting, although it's one of the decks I hate losing to the most. Outside of the required red fetchlands, Goblin Guide is the single most expensive piece of this strategy.

This card could definitely see growth should red players choose to throw bolts instead of pitching phoenix to the yard. Eidolon of the Great Revel is fantastic at punishing UR spell strategies, and will probably see more success based off that alone. New cards like Light up the Stage and Skewer the Critics make it an exciting time to be a Burn player.

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The last card I'd like to highlight is Noble Hierarch. The recent UMA reprint has slashed the price of this one-drop mana dork. Copies can be found in the mid-thirties to low forties, and make this the absolute best time to be picking them up.

So many strategies—Humans, Bant Spirits, Vannifar Pod, and even Abzan Collected Company decks—utilize playsets of this card. This is probably the biggest no-brainer for cards to pick up for the future, especially if you want to play green creature strategies.

Bring it on Home

As I said before, I've had a pretty poor outlook on Modern over the last year. The style of play that is successful here is not exactly my cup of tea. However, Modern Horizons and the possible introduction of more tools to fight redundant, linear strategies has gotten me to reconsider the format. This is an incredibly exciting time for Modern, and now is the time to start identifying cards that could be popping very soon.

What I plan on picking up

  • Khans of Tarkir Fetchlands - (In order of importance) Bloodstained Mire, Polluted Delta, Flooded Strand, Wooded Foothills, Windswept Heath
  • Ultimate Masters reprints in depression - Life from the Loam, Noble Hierarch, Karn Liberated, Celestial Colonnade
  • Primeval Titan!
  • Any and all Burn pieces - Goblin Guide, Eidolon of the Great Revel, Lava Spike, Lightning Bolt

Cards I'm not so sure about

  • Zendikar Fetches - Scalding Tarn, Misty Rainforest, Verdant Catacombs, Arid Mesa, Marsh Flats
  • Arclight Phoenix
  • Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

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