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Ask Kelly – Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel and Fostering Healthy Trading Communities

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

In this new series, Quiet Speculation founder Kelly Reid dips into the reader mailbag and brings answers that come from his Magic expertise, business experience and writing at Forbes. He answers questions on specific cards, general trends, the Magic lifestyle and more.

Each week, the winner of the best question will also be awarded a month of free Insider access. Already have Insider? Don't worry! You can give it as a gift or add it onto your current subscription.

Have a question? Ask Kelly here for your chance to win.

~

Q: With the titans rotating out of Standard, do you foresee any 5+ drops making it big?

- Ben from Singapore

Kelly: The titans were absurdly powerful for their cost. 6-cost cards need to be really game-breaking to see constructed play, and the Titans were all good enough to suit.

Primeval Titan was clearly the best, but that was due to interactions outside the card itself. Without Valakut, Inkmoth Nexus and Kessig Wolf Run, Primeval Titan got a bit less scary.  That said, the whole cycle was innately powerful because it affected the board immediately, both with the ETB ability and the 6/6 body.

That's generally the standard to which I hold a high cost card - how heavily does it affect the board when cast?  The first card that comes to mind is Sigarda, Host of Herons.  She meets all the criteria - the Sacrifice clause has a direct impact on the game since a lot of the best removal is based around the "edict" mechanic and she's a 5/5 flier for 5 mana.  While she is not nearly as devastating as a Titan is, she comes down a turn earlier, flies, and is far harder to kill once on board.

Griselbrand has already proven that he's a beast, but not in the traditional hard-cast sense.  A lot of the fatties in Standard will enter via Unburial Rites rather than the tapping of lands and paying of mana costs, so I doubt there will be many that make the cut as frequently as Titans did.

Q: What do you think about speculation on sealed mtg products like displays, FTV and Commander Decks?  What are the pros and cons compared to single cards? Can you get more money with the same cash invested?

- JoĂŁo from Portugal

Kelly: Sealed products are a really interesting gamble.  It's rare that you'll get a big return on investment. Even the most valuable sealed products don't do more than double up in a few years.  Considering there's no real guarantee they'll appreciate, nor a guarantee there will be a market for them, I'm not big on the strategy.

That said, I am a professional seller and not a casual player, collector or investor.  I'm much more interested in a quick 15% rather than a long 50%.  Booster boxes are usually fine to throw in the closet for a few years, especially from popular sets or short-printed sets.  I know I'm fine sitting on a case of AVN for a while since it was one of the most popular sets in recent memory and is PACKED with great cards.

On the other hand, I may end up cracking those boxes for singles since, in the short term, I can turn over all the singles with ease for a quick margin.  It comes down to your personal goals and timelines.  Single cards are more versatile, but more work since you have to sell each card individually.  A box can just go up on eBay and you're done.

This Week's Winner:

Q: What can a person do to help foster a new store's trading community?  A local store has just started FNM and gets 12-20 people, but no one seems willing to trade. Last FNM, I sat at a table with a binder open and no one even came to look or ask if stuff was for trade. Is there anything to do to show people trading is fun/ok?  I know they need cards, as the store doesn't have a good selection yet.

- Jim from Pittsburgh

Kelly: First, spread the word about QS!  Hopefully you brought our M13 Cheat Sheet to your prerelease, but, if not, bring  one to the Launch Party.  The more people that feel comfortable trading, the better.

Second, don't be "That Guy" who tries to value-trade everyone with dealer prices.  People aren't dumb and they hate people who do that, since it doesn't foster a trading community at all.  The problem I see is that you sat with a binder open, but you didn't ask anyone if they wanted to trade.  Trading favors the proactive.  Most people are not proactive, so you need to be the one to initiate the trade interaction.

Trade to trade, not to profit.  I find that working on a Cube or Commander deck is the best way to trade for fun, since slinging Standard staples is basically just a value-grind for me.  Have a list of stuff you need so people know what to do when they trade with you.  A lot of people just don't understand the idea of trading for its own sake, and, if they do, it might just not be their style.  I have seen a lot of people stop trading because of wanna-be sharks and "value" traders, so be especially sensitive to this.

If the store has a poor stock of singles, it will benefit everyone if you become a go-to guy for the stuff they need for FNM.  Give people your contact info and tell them to hit you up if they ever need anything.

Above all, be personable, friendly and approachable.  You can make your margin while trading pretty fairly, but right now focus on transactions just to get people opening up their binders.

~

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Q: What is your opinion on Snapcaster Mage? It seems that it's power level will be much weaker come rotation, should we be dumping them now and picking them up when the price settles?

- Felix from Chicago

Q: Kelly, where do you see Restoration Angel's price going after Birthing Pod rotates? Do you see Delver sticking around with Seachrome and the Swords gone?

- Pete from Ohio

Q: If you could unload any card en masse right before Columbus, what would you want to trade away/sell?

- Michael from Miami

~

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Insider: Ask Kelly – Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel and Fostering Healthy Trading Communities (+Bonus Insider Q’s)

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

In this new series, Quiet Speculation founder Kelly Reid dips into the reader mailbag and brings answers that come from his Magic expertise, business experience and writing at Forbes. He answers questions on specific cards, general trends, the Magic lifestyle and more.

Each week, the winner of the best question will also be awarded a month of free Insider access. Already have Insider? Don't worry! You can give it as a gift or add it onto your current subscription.

Have a question? Ask Kelly here for your chance to win.

~

Q: With the titans rotating out of Standard, do you foresee any 5+ drops making it big?

- Ben from Singapore

Kelly: The titans were absurdly powerful for their cost. 6-cost cards need to be really game-breaking to see constructed play, and the Titans were all good enough to suit.

Primeval Titan was clearly the best, but that was due to interactions outside the card itself. Without Valakut, Inkmoth Nexus and Kessig Wolf Run, Primeval Titan got a bit less scary.  That said, the whole cycle was innately powerful because it affected the board immediately, both with the ETB ability and the 6/6 body.

That's generally the standard to which I hold a high cost card - how heavily does it affect the board when cast?  The first card that comes to mind is Sigarda, Host of Herons.  She meets all the criteria - the Sacrifice clause has a direct impact on the game since a lot of the best removal is based around the "edict" mechanic and she's a 5/5 flier for 5 mana.  While she is not nearly as devastating as a Titan is, she comes down a turn earlier, flies, and is far harder to kill once on board.

Griselbrand has already proven that he's a beast, but not in the traditional hard-cast sense.  A lot of the fatties in Standard will enter via Unburial Rites rather than the tapping of lands and paying of mana costs, so I doubt there will be many that make the cut as frequently as Titans did.

Q: What do you think about speculation on sealed mtg products like displays, FTV and Commander Decks?  What are the pros and cons compared to single cards? Can you get more money with the same cash invested?

- JoĂŁo from Portugal

Kelly: Sealed products are a really interesting gamble.  It's rare that you'll get a big return on investment. Even the most valuable sealed products don't do more than double up in a few years.  Considering there's no real guarantee they'll appreciate, nor a guarantee there will be a market for them, I'm not big on the strategy.

That said, I am a professional seller and not a casual player, collector or investor.  I'm much more interested in a quick 15% rather than a long 50%.  Booster boxes are usually fine to throw in the closet for a few years, especially from popular sets or short-printed sets.  I know I'm fine sitting on a case of AVN for a while since it was one of the most popular sets in recent memory and is PACKED with great cards.

On the other hand, I may end up cracking those boxes for singles since, in the short term, I can turn over all the singles with ease for a quick margin.  It comes down to your personal goals and timelines.  Single cards are more versatile, but more work since you have to sell each card individually.  A box can just go up on eBay and you're done.

This Week's Winner:

Q: What can a person do to help foster a new store's trading community?  A local store has just started FNM and gets 12-20 people, but no one seems willing to trade. Last FNM, I sat at a table with a binder open and no one even came to look or ask if stuff was for trade. Is there anything to do to show people trading is fun/ok?  I know they need cards, as the store doesn't have a good selection yet.

- Jim from Pittsburgh

Kelly: First, spread the word about QS!  Hopefully you brought our M13 Cheat Sheet to your prerelease, but, if not, bring  one to the Launch Party.  The more people that feel comfortable trading, the better.

Second, don't be "That Guy" who tries to value-trade everyone with dealer prices.  People aren't dumb and they hate people who do that, since it doesn't foster a trading community at all.  The problem I see is that you sat with a binder open, but you didn't ask anyone if they wanted to trade.  Trading favors the proactive.  Most people are not proactive, so you need to be the one to initiate the trade interaction.

Trade to trade, not to profit.  I find that working on a Cube or Commander deck is the best way to trade for fun, since slinging Standard staples is basically just a value-grind for me.  Have a list of stuff you need so people know what to do when they trade with you.  A lot of people just don't understand the idea of trading for its own sake, and, if they do, it might just not be their style.  I have seen a lot of people stop trading because of wanna-be sharks and "value" traders, so be especially sensitive to this.

If the store has a poor stock of singles, it will benefit everyone if you become a go-to guy for the stuff they need for FNM.  Give people your contact info and tell them to hit you up if they ever need anything.

Above all, be personable, friendly and approachable.  You can make your margin while trading pretty fairly, but right now focus on transactions just to get people opening up their binders.

Q: What is your opinion on Snapcaster Mage? It seems that it's power level will be much weaker come rotation, should we be dumping them now and picking them up when the price settles?

- Felix from Chicago

Kelly: Snapcaster Mage is a "forever card", but you're right - it does lose some power in Standard once Ponder, Mana Leak and Vapor Snag leave the format.  No one is going to get excited over Snapcaster'ing back an Index (which won't see much play), and Snapping a Rewind doesn't really get me going either.

I'm going to withhold my judgment on Snapcaster's power level until I see R2R, which I am guessing will have a very high power level.   The only instant in M13 I'm interested in targeting with Snapcaster Mage is Vile Rebirth - 1UB for a 2/2 and a 2/1 seems very powerful at instant speed, and it can also deal with opposing Undying type creatures.  Even if graveyard hosing isn't a primary objective, plenty of guys will die on both sides to warrant this interaction.

Snapcaster Mage's price has been steadily dropping.  They are around $17 right now, but can still trade around $20.   I see no upside, barring something totally insane in R2R, but I wouldn't be eager to "dump" them.  They're still commodity staple cards which means that they trade with high liquidity.  I would not go 'overweight' on them since there's only downside but I don't think we're going to see the price drop sharply.

Remember that supply is about finished - Innistrad isn't going to be widely available for much longer.  Foils will hold their value and non-foils will probably stabilize around 15.

Q: Kelly, where do you see Restoration Angel's price going after Birthing Pod rotates? Do you see Delver sticking around with Seachrome and the Swords gone?

- Pete from Ohio

Kelly: That card is insane.  Birthing Pod has almost no bearing on its price. The Delver decks are wholly to blame.  Restoration Angel is one of the most powerful things you can do for four mana right now, especially considering the context.

The real question is, will Delver still be a deck?  The answer is a resounding "yes".  It will be slower without Seachrome Coast unless they bring back Hallowed Fountain, in which case mirror matches will be over in a blink.  I can foresee the choice of whether to play your shock lands untapped becoming a major factor in match outcomes.  Delver decks that only use Runechanter's Pike have seen plenty of success, so when every deck loses Swords, Delver loses very little.

The real loss other than Seachrome Coast is Vapor Snag.  The tempo loss can be replicated by Unsummon, but the extra damage added up very quickly.  Vapor Snag can be, and was, responsible for between 2 and 5 points of damage in a given game.  Restoration Angel's price should be offset by the promo, but it isn't.  You just can't get this card for under $11.  I don't know if it can sustain that price, but Avacyn Restored has come and gone.  I think it's a $10 card for life.

Q: If you could unload any card en masse right before Columbus, what would you want to trade away/sell?

- Michael from Miami

Kelly: I can't really think of anything I'd want to get rid of, but I think Modern cards are much harder to find than most people realize right now.  I haven't seen a ton in trade binders lately, so I'd actually do the opposite - I'd be bulking up my Modern stock for the GP.

The decks and cards that perform well at the GP will be the first lists people look at when Modern becomes a PTQ format again, likely this Winter, so take note.  There's still a long time until the PTQ season, so Columbus is a great opportunity to trade out your Modern staples at competitive prices.  You'll have at least 4 months to restock!

Most of the rotating cards from Standard have already had their prices slashed, so the window of opportunity there is closed.  The Scars lands are not far from being good pick-ups at this point, to be honest, but I'd wait until R2R so we have a better idea of what things look like.  The Scars lands will make a nice compliment to shocks in Modern for certain, so we may even see a surge in demand for them at the GP.

The Return of Rancor

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Every once in a while a card comes along with the potential to define entire formats. Wizards has recently reprinted a card of this caliber from the murky dark ages of Magic past. It will be almost certainly be a powerhouse in aggressive Standard decks. It may even be good enough to break out in Modern.

The card I speak of is, of course, this one:

For some time this iconic aura has been the standard against which other auras were measured. In recent years we may have stopped comparing auras to Rancor, but that is only because they all pale in comparison to power-boosting equipment.

In my opinion, Rancor is the best aura ever printed, and probably always will be. Those of you who have never played with or against this card may doubt my resolve, but rest assured it is stronger than it looks.

Last weekend I lost the only match in which my opponent played a Rancor, which reminded me just how powerful it is. He basically just played some mediocre green dudes but Rancor let his little creatures trade with my big creatures before helping his big creatures kill me.

In Standard, Rancor has many applications. I don’t think this card will spawn a new deck on its own but it makes quite a few decks better.

G/R Aggro

Let’s start with the most obvious candidate, G/R Aggro. Look how easily Rancor fits in this deck:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Llanowar Elves
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Strangleroot Geist
1 Daybreak Ranger
3 Wolfir Avenger
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Thrun the Last Troll
1 Acidic Slime
2 Wolfir Silverheart

Sorceries

3 Pillar of Flame
2 Bonfire of the Damned
2 Green Suns Zenith

Artifacts

2 Sword of War and Peace

Enchantments

4 Rancor

Lands

4 Copperline Gorge
4 Rootbound Crag
2 Kessig Wolf Run
10 Forest
3 Mountain

Rancor actually does everything in this deck. If all you have is a lowly Birds of Paradise, Rancor turns it into an actual threat. That’s to say nothing of its synergy with Swords and Wolfir Silverheart. Pair it with Sword of War and Peace to steamroll chump blockers and guarantee that your sword triggers. Or combine it with Wolfir Silverheart to swing for approximately a billion damage.

If all that were not enough to convince you, compare Rancor to Wild Size.

First of all, Wild Size is a one-time pump spell, whereas Rancor sticks around. Wild Size draws you one card, whereas Rancor draws a card every time one of your creatures dies. Even if the card you draw is always another Rancor, the power of this effect should be obvious.

And Rancor clocks in at a full third the cost of Wild Size.

How cheap does Wild Size have to become for you to play it in Constructed? I submit to you that at one mana it is not only playable, but very good.

Dungrove Green

Moving on, Rancor also fits extremely well in Dungrove Green decks. Dungrove Elder's main drawback is its lack of evasion. He typically grows larger than Primeval Titan throughout the course of the game but being chumpable by any creature on the field keeps him in check.

With Rancor that is no longer an issue. It makes Dungrove Elder into a huge threat early in the game. Imagine the following series of plays. They play Llanowar Elves turn one and follow it up with Dungrove Elder. On turn three they suit it up with Rancor and attack with a 5/3 shrouded trampling monstrosity that you are sure to have an extremely hard time killing.

Here’s a list I have been working on:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Llanowar Elves
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Strangleroot Geist
4 Dungrove Elder
3 Wolfir Avenger
1 Acidic Slime
3 Wolfir Silverheart

Sorceries

2 Revenge of the Hunted
3 Green Suns Zenith

Artifacts

2 Sword of War and Peace

Enchantments

4 Rancor

Planeswalkers

3 Garruk Relentless

Lands

23 Forest

Of course, Dungrove Green has a lot of overlap with G/R Aggro but you can see the power of Rancor in both strategies.

Birthing Pod

Another similar strategy that may choose to include the reprinted enchantment would be Birthing Pod:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Strangleroot Geist
4 Blade Splicer
1 Borderland Ranger
1 Daybreak Ranger
3 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Restoration Angel
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Zealous Conscripts
2 Geist-Honored Monk

Instants

2 Dismember

Artifacts

2 Birthing Pod

Enchantments

3 Rancor

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
4 Copperline Gorge
4 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains

In this aggressive Naya Pod deck, Rancor pushes through damage and provides virtual card advantage to close more games. I could even see something as innocent as a 1/1 flying spirit token win you the game with Rancor.

This deck sometimes clogs the ground with creatures and ends up in a stalemate. Rancor will allow you to pull ahead in these situations.

Infect Aggro

One final deck that gets a huge power boost from Rancor is Infect.

Most likely it will be monogreen, but I want to explore this concept in a variety of combinations. Monogreen Infect seems like the most powerful because it allows room for Cathedral of War. However, Blue might be needed if only for the unblockable ability on Blighted Agent.

For now, take a look at a monogreen version:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Ichorclaw Myr
3 Necropede
4 Glistener Elf
2 Viridian Corrupter

Instants

4 Mutagenic Growth
3 Rangers Guile
2 Titanic Growth
4 Unnatural Predation

Sorceries

2 Tezzerets Gambit

Artifacts

1 Contagion Clasp

Enchantments

4 Wild Defiance
4 Rancor

Lands

4 Inkmoth Nexus
4 Cathedral of War
15 Forest

Regardless of the shell you put it in, Rancor provides a powerful effect. I’m sure there are other ways to abuse it, and I expect to see it frequently over the next year while it’s legal in Standard.

Thoughts, Opinions?

I noted with delight and/or chagrin that everyone appararently agreed with my Top 10 from last week, since there were no posted comments. Whatever happened to the fabled mass of opinionated Magic pundits?

Don’t be shy about posting your thoughts! Have any other ideas about how to abuse Rancor in Standard? Any sweet brews in Modern to take advantage of our fancy new reprint? Sound off in the coments below and let’s get the polemic started.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force of the Rancor!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Casual Hits from Magic 2013 and Avacyn Restored

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If you’re a savvy trader, think about all the cards you probably target in deals. The casual hit, undervalued by your trade partner but worth real money elsewhere. I make a good deal of my profit in trading from deals like these, and I imagine many of you do as well.

It’s great to pick these up for cheap in trades; no doubt about it. But there’s another way to get ahead on these — actually pick them up when they truly are cheap. This is a concept I looked into in the past for Innistrad (with Parallel Lives being the biggest hit), and it’s time to bring it out again.

The idea is you grab these cards as throw-ins now when you can get them for free and sometime down the road, whether that’s just a few months or a few years, they’ll be worth real money, all for the low cost of you stashing them into your binder for a while. In addition, some of these foils will actually be worth very real money, with Commander and Cube and whatnot being a thing.

While I’m not covering Dark Ascension in this review, I will point out Predator Ooze, which pops up on buylists for a buck every now and then.

Avacyn Restored

Angels

I’ve touched on it before, but it bears repeating. There are a lot of Angels in this set, and that alone means something. As for something more specific, Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Gisela, Blade of Goldnight, are the ones I like. Avacyn isn’t really playable anywhere but Casual formats, but she’s a giant freaking Angel for those formats. Gisela (and Sigarda) are actually candidates to become the Control finisher of choice in Standard, but regardless of that her flashy ability makes her a better target than Bruna.

Silverblade Paladin

Another card whose appeal in Standard messes with his casual-only appeal. But still, Knights are sort of a real thing in the casual world, as Knight Exemplar showed before some reprints. If this thing falls out of favor in Standard (or in another year), be ready to pick this guy up on the cheap.

Misthollow Griffin

People like all the wacky things you can do with this guy, Food Chain included. Especially as a Mythic, it’s easy to believe the low risk here helps out.

Exquisite Blood

If you’re new around here and don’t know the price of Sanguine Bond, I’ll give you a minute to go look it up.

Back yet? Yeah, this thing is the other half of Bond, and while there aren’t the same supply issues with Restored that there were with M10, this card is going to start heading in that direction as well.

Vexing Devil

It seems wrong to label this a casual card, but the price on this has refused to come down to the levels it should be for a Constructed perspective. People are going to try to make this work forever, so you might as well grab them from the “constructed-only” crowd, which probably doesn’t even realize this guy still buylists for $4.

Champion of Lambholt

I sold a bunch of these to the local shop owner for $2 apiece a few days ago, and I’m willing to bet some of you have traded them away for that price or lower. Yes, it has potential in Constructed, but so far it’s the casual crowd (both the kitchen table and the FNM variety) keeping this thing going.

Descendants Path

Lots of casual players (and myself) have tribal decks they really love. And Tribal decks really love this card, since its Leaf-Crowned Elder on steroids. In a few years these should be an easy couple of dollars to a dealer.

Otherworld Atlas

This is one to look out for foils of. EDH players like to draw cards, and quirky “everyone’s a winner” cards like this tend to stay pretty popular in those circles since everyone feels included, even if their deck isn’t as set up to take advantage as the caster’s might be.

Magic 2013

Captain of the Watch

Even with the reprint, you can sell the 2010 version of this for a couple of bucks. Give it a few years, and the price on both should start heading back up.

Rhox Faithmender

Have I mentioned yet that casual players like to gain life? Well, they do. And they definitely like to gain double that life. This Rhino seems like an easy bet.

Omniscience

Foils. There’s rumors of this card in Legacy, though I don’t expect it to pan out. Still, it’s definitely a thing in EDH, where players hit 10 mana all the time and yet still would like to cast their stuff for free.

Vampire Nocturnus

There are multiple printings and promos of this guy at this point, and yet the M10 version is still worth more than $10. Once this guy bottoms out from being re-opened, get back to scooping these up.

Primordial Hydra

Another card that used to be easy money before M13. This thing retailed for $5 just a few months ago, and I have to imagine it will again in a few more years. You will get this card handed to you in a store, as I’ve done multiple times, so by all means take advantage.

Now for the “other” section of the spoiler, the multicolored and artifact cards. All of these follow the same line — previously expensive cards that will drop because of a reprint and then later climb back up.

-       Akromas Memorial (foils)

-       Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker

-       Gilded Lotus (foils)

-       Stuffy Doll

-       Reliquary Tower (foils)

To that list I’ll add Trading Post. The card is fun in Standard, though I don’t think good enough to merit any financial action. That said, it’s a type of Staff of Domination. It’s not as good as the Staff, but it’s still worth noting, since Staff will buylist for four bucks.

That about covers it! Nothing on this list is going to make you rich overnight, nor is it going to pay for your dinner next week. But these are all safe bets to target as throw-ins. Making a dollar here or there doesn’t seem like much, but before you know it you’re cashing out to a dealer and you have a 100 $1 cards you picked up as throw-ins in a trade. That’s a good feeling.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Augur of Bolas – A Beacon of Hope to Durdles Everywhere

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I unintentionally overslept the Saturday prerelease this weekend, but I was able to make the Sunday Sealed flight. I could still taste the alcohol on my breath from a long night of live metal and the Wonder Pets drinking game, but I’ve played under worse conditions.

The pool that I received was really underwhelming. Pretty much all of my playable cards cost four mana and I had very few tricks in any color. With my pool being as boring as it was, I started looking around the table to see if anybody else was doing something sweet. I wasn’t wholly disappointed.

This is a removal spell, right?

The gentleman sitting across from me was working on a blue/white deck with a red splash. Splashing is one of the more interesting aspects of Magic to me, as opinions tend to vary widely over what is worth splashing and when. One of the three red cards that my potential opponent intended to splash was the mighty Goblin Arsonist. Truly I was in the Presence of the Master.

The deck that I played was an unimpressive pile of green and black cards that, for the most part, were horribly inefficient. I got stomped pretty hard by Akroma's Memorial in round one. Did you know that it gives pro-black? Yeah, me too, but I was still mad about it.

Between rounds I birded a couple locals playing some Standard. One was playing an awful version of mono-green aggro and the other was playing some RUG good cards concoction.

The entire time the mono-green player complained about how he hated blue and how Ponder was too good. I felt like I was being trolled. Ponder is too good?

Really?

Of course, what he meant was every card that his opponent played in games that he didn’t win was too good - such is the nature of the scrub. Still, I couldn’t help but be bothered by his poor card evaluation.

Sure, Ponder is restricted in Vintage, and I don’t wholly disagree with that, but it’s far better in Vintage than it is in Standard. In Standard there are virtually zero shuffle effects and not a single restricted card to dig to. Realistically, Ponder is at its strongest in Standard when it allows you to shuffle away three cards that you don’t want. I mean, if you’re keeping all three cards then how much of a difference does it make to draw one a turn or two earlier?

In fact, the weakness of Ponder as compared to draw spells like Compulsive Research and Careful Consideration is the exact reason that I haven’t been keen on playing any manner of control deck recently. Ponder doesn’t generate any card advantage, which is what a control deck needs to deal with the fact that they spend the majority of the game playing from behind.

I know, I know, players have been having notable success with Esper lately. I will grant that Chris Anderson’s Esper midrange deck looks very solid, but it’s not what I look for in a controlling strategy. The Esper deck makes up for the lack of good draw spells by jamming a lot of powerful cards that fill similar roles. There’s not much difference between a turn three Blade Splicer or Lingering Souls. I like that the deck generates strong board positions and can go over the top with Sun Titan, but there’s just something missing…

It doesn’t durdle enough.

I just want to sit back, draw cards, kill my opponent’s stuff and eventually win somehow. Restoration Angel just isn’t that appealing to me. It’s a little too good at its job.

Historically I’ve been pretty big on the type of U/R/x control decks that are commonly referred to as “counterburn”. I love drawing cards and I love having reach. Why make a million Golem tokens when I can just kill my opponent dead with Bonfire of the Damned while grinding them out with six cards in hand?

When Avacyn Restored launched I was very excited for both Desolate Lighthouse and Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. I brewed up a blue/red pile that featured these cards alongside some Bonfire of the Damned, some permission and some Snapcaster Mages. As I suspected, the deck ended up being a little too inconsistent/slow to compete with Delver and I shelved it.

Augur of Bolas might be exactly what it was missing.

It's like a Ponder that blocks!

 

To be entirely honest, I wasn’t initially impressed by Nicol Bolas’ fish friend, but that’s because I was looking at him through the wrong lens. I was asking myself if Augur of Bolas fit into any existing archetypes and I didn’t’ feel like it did. It has a body that is pretty out of place in Delver and the Esper Midrange deck is a little too heavy on creatures. On the other hand, he’s right at home in a durdly pile of spells. I’ve been playing the following deck on the MTGO Beta all weekend:

dURdle More, Please

spells

2 Phantasmal Image
2 Frost Titan
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Augur of Bolas
4 Think Twice
2 Pillar of Flame
4 Ponder
2 Whipflare
4 Bonfire of the Damned
4 Mana Leak
2 Vapor Snag
1 Dismember

lands

2 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Sulfur Falls
10 Island
9 Mountain

It’s pretty clear that I’ve made a lot of concessions to the aggressive decks. I’m not excited about game one against anything controlling, but I feel like I have a serious edge against aggressive decks. Bonfire of the Damned is an insane Plague Wind variant, Augur of Bolas is a solid blocker and the rest of the removal suite does its job pretty well.
Some of the card choices might appear a bit odd, so here’s a brief overview of why I made certain calls the way that I did:

Frost Titan over Consecrated Sphinx

This is probably the choice that I feel is most debatable. By that, I mean that everybody else is going to say that I’m just wrong for not picking Sphinx.

The choice that I made hinges largely on the fact that Frost Titan is a lot better at closing games than Consecrated Sphinx. This deck is already very good at drawing cards and the “ice” ability is surprisingly powerful. Further, Phantasmal Image-ing a Titan is considerably more back-breaking in most situations.

Frost Titan is also a concession to both Cavern of Souls and the deck’s general difficulty in dealing with high-toughness creatures. Frosty does a wonderful job at pulling you back into games when you’re behind and is much more difficult for Delver to just ignore via Vapor Snag.

That all said, I fully intend to pack a couple Sphinxes on my sideboard, which isn’t listed only because it’s a work in progress. I think that it’s fine to have more heavy drops in sideboarded games when I can take out cards like Pillar of Flame or Mana Leak in the matchups where they’re not very good, whereas I want to have a higher volume of cheap reactive cards in the maindeck.

Whipflare over Slagstorm

With all the Blade Splicers running around, Slagstorm is a rather enticing option, but the double-red requirement is quite restrictive. The mana in this deck is okay, but not spectacular.

I honestly wouldn’t fault anybody for wanting Slagstorm, but I feel that Vapor Snag and Dismember can get you there against Splicer a fair amount of the time, with Whipflare being considerably better against opposing Geist of Saint Trafts. With Splicer showing up a lot more these days I may end up making the switch or going for a split.

Vapor Snag over more actual removal

Vapor Snag is really good at buying time, which is all this deck really needs against aggressive decks. It’s also helps out with Restoration Angel, which is variably problematic depending on whether or not the opponent has Cavern of Souls. I almost want another Dismember over one of the Snags, but the life loss is kind of tough. All I know for certain is that whatever I’d cut a Snag for would have to play well against opposing Angels.

Think Twice over Desperate Ravings

I’ve never been huge on Desperate Ravings. I get that it digs deeper than Think Twice, but I really hate the idea of randomly discarding my Bonfires or Titans with so few ways to kill my opponent in the deck. Ravings enthusiasts and/or lucksacks should certainly play Ravings in this slot, but I’m not huge on it in a deck with few win conditions and minimal ways to play out of the graveyard.

Of course, the most pressing question isn't about specific card choices…

Is this deck even any good?

I’m not about to tell you that this deck is going to turn Standard on its head. What it does do is beat up on deck like GR aggro, Zombies and assorted garbage like the mono-black decks that have been popping up. It’s entirely possible that the current list is too soft against Esper and Restoration Angel in general, but only more testing and the development of the metagame in coming weeks will tell if it has any place in Standard competition.

What I can tell you definitively is that Ponder and Augur of Bolas play extremely well together. Having the two makes it easy to dig very deep into your deck if you’re searching for a specific instant or sorcery. Additionally, you can leave an instant or sorcery on the top of your deck with Ponder in order to ensure that your Augur cantrips, or just use your Augur to put the cards you didn’t want from Ponder on the bottom of your deck.

I’ll either be running something close to this deck or Delver this weekend in St. Louis. I’m really hoping that I’ll be able to work the kinks out of dURdles though, because the Ponder + Augur of Bolas engine has been very solid thus far in my testing, and is exactly the kind of Magic that I like to play.

Wish me luck.

-Ryan Overturf

Insider: A Magic Online Move and a M13 Hidden Gem?

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I never thought I'd ever have to say, that the day the angels went away, was the very best day. Not even sure what that means, but I like the sound of it. Pre-release was a blast this weekend, and I love the new Limited format. I got to both play and judge some events, and it was really refreshing to be done with Avacyn Restored. Time to really get our hands dirty with M13 and see how this Summer will develop. But first, we have another MTGO move to make.

Cube is Back on MTGO

Upon the release of the MTGO Cube, not long ago, people were instantly enamored with the huge strides WotC was making to support the Cube fans on MTGO. As this small sample pattern has shown, they'll be offering Cube drafts during times when the MTGO formats are lagging behind the paper formats. Cube has been popular, even though its unarguably pretty poor EV in comparison to other queues.

One thing we noticed last time, as this new format exploded, is that prize packs plummeted in price. At the time, we were talking mostly about Future Sight packs, but in reality, all Time Spiral block was a part of it. Packs plummeted because in order to continue Cubing, people had to convert the packs they won back into tickets so they could pay another entry fee. Typically, in draft queues, you're allowed to use unopened boosters to cover a majority of your entry, but since Cube packs are "Phantom" (the cards you draft you don't keep) the prize doesn't match the entry. Converting the prize to tickets is done most rapidly through Bots, which of course are operating on a profit margin. We saw Future Sight staple Tarmogoyf fall in price as well.

This go around, prize packs will be from Onslaught block. Onslaught packs are about $5 now, while the others are $2 or less. Onslaught packs hold Fetchlands, which of course is why they sit so much higher than their counterparts. An opportunity for us, the speculators, is to be ready to buy up these packs as drafters look to dump them. All you really need is a chunk of tickets. If you're matching or barely beating bot Buy Prices, you should be able to turn a profit after the cube fanaticism ends in only a week.

Don't get scared. The packs will continue to plummet and plummet, just keep lowering your buy price as consistently as the Bots are. Of course if you have the ability to let a Bot do this work for you, all the better! There is certainly some amount of risk involved here, as the Future Sight Packs never really recovered their full value, yet. But Tarmogoyf has passed his bottom and has started steadily rising back up, regaining almost half of its lost value over that time. I expect the packs to follow suit, even if it takes some time.

To be clear, I don't expect this to be a quick hit. I expect that by buying and holding as many of these packs as possible, especially if you wait for prices to come down a bit first (towards this weekend) you'll be able to hold them long term for a decent profit. In this same vein, buying in on Fetchlands (if and when) they drop in price as a result of these queues is a bit safer play but takes a bit more investment. WotC is clearly making these Cubes as a way to help bring down cost of Legacy staples online. Longer term maybe we look at Legacy staples that are under-priced due to an underrepresented Legacy metagame on MTGO.

Trading Post, REALLY?

Yeah, really. This card is solid. After getting my hands on this card a bit over the weekend, and keeping it in mind during brewing sessions with my crew, I'm convinced this card is going to see a decent amount of play. Not to mention, casuals are going nuts just to get a chance to make some Goat tokens. StarCityGames and CardKingdom agree with me, that this card should not be at bulk level since they both have it at $1.99 which I find still a bit too low, while it could still be found for $1 at ChannelFireball.com. I don't expect this card to get much higher than $3, but it's extremely versatile, and generates tons of value in the right deck. Some at my LGS are calling it the "Poor-mans-planeswalker".

While buying them at $1 from Channel Fireball is enticing, after shipping I'm worried about giving up too much edge. It may be the right play though; however, I would recommend picking them up in trades at or near bulk prices and hunting them aggressively. By jokingly telling people at my Pre-release that I planned to build a Door to Nothingness Standard deck, I had 3 copies gifted to me by the end of the day.

Now, my suggestion isn't to ask for hand outs, but rather to let people know you're actively excited about it. I have the most success with these types of speculations when I am legitimately excited about playing it. The joy you experience about a pet card is something people want to be a part of, and they're happy to help you with it. Maybe this card isn't the one for you. But when I'm at my LGS, and I'm actually excited about a card, it makes it much easier to trade for. Keep this in mind as you're picking up things at the store. Trading Post is my sleeper, what about yours?

Upcoming Articles

Over the next few articles I'd really like to work with reader submissions in one way or another. I've had two different ideas, but ultimately it needs to be something you guys would like to see. One thought would be if there was a specific speculation target, either from M13 or from Innistrad block that we want to dig deep and see some hard analysis on what we might expect for the future. Another idea I had was to create mini-achievements and challenges for readers to follow. The idea is to be constantly thinking about how your current behaviors and tactics are or are not progressing your plan for trading. Think of Yoda, "Do or do not. There is no try." What you're currently doing either is, or isn't helping you, and a series of exercises would be designed to keep you focused on what your goals are. I'm open to suggestions or submissions both in the comments here, on Twitter (@torerotutor) or by email chad(at)torerotutor(dot)com.

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Chad Havas

Chad has been with Quiet Speculation since January of 2011. He uses price speculation to cover all his costs to keep playing. Follow his journey from format to format and be prepared to make moves at the right times.

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Posted in Buying, Finance, Free InsiderTagged 5 Comments on Insider: A Magic Online Move and a M13 Hidden Gem?

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Insider: M13’s Impact on Card Values

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After a slightly longer spoiler period due to the combined marketing of the newest Duals of the Planeswalkers, we finally have the complete list for M13. While I am personally less enthusiastic about this core set than I have been with the previous couple, there are still some noteworthy cards worth discussing.

My counterparts here at Quiet Speculation are getting quite skilled at reviewing relevant cards in a new set and identifying their price trajectory. Rather than potentially contradict or, even worse, write redundant information, I choose instead to evaluate the impact the cards are likely to have on others’ prices.

I enjoy this topic a lot more because it is a somewhat unique approach, as many other writers spend countless words on set reviews and value predictions. Let's get to it.

M13 Spoilers – My First Reaction

It’s actually instinctual for me to consider impact on other cards before I think about potential value of the spoiled cards themselves. M13 was no exception. My initial reaction to the set’s complete spoiling - no Noble Hierarch!!

This was not a surprise to some, but it was apparently enough of a surprise to the general MTG population. I say this because of the impact rumors have had on the Human Druid’s price (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

With rumors alone, the card’s value dropped from a peak of $17.75 to a trough of $15.25. This is a drop of about 14%, which to me is an indicator that enough players believed in the reprint rumors enough to fear their validity. You can see the trend turns positive again this past week, and I see the card price increasing again until it hits the $18 level as before. In fact, I’ve already noticed the upward trend on eBay.

Next Reaction – Impact on Standard

My next reaction is to browse the forums discussing some broader metagame impacts of M13. One prevailing theme I have observed is the de-clawing of some of Standard’s dominant cards, particularly with the printing of cards like Ground Seal.

I am not particularly interested in the enchantment’s value trend – I am instead looking to what it means for Standard staple Snapcaster Mage. It seems Wizards of the Coast recognizes the Human Wizard was a tad too powerful, and they have taken measures to weaken the card in Standard.

Price-wise, Snapcaster Mage already began a slight decline recently. The printing of Ground Seal will not help the card’s price one bit (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com). This is not a cry to sell all your copies, but it is a suggestion to unload excess copies soon with intent of re-purchasing them at a lower price.

It’s not just Snapcaster Mage that will possibly weaken. The fact that Wizards printed some powerful non-blue cards such as Rancor, Vampire Nighthawk and Thundermaw Hellkite means blue Delver decks may be destined to fall off their mighty pedestal.

Financially speaking, this could spell price drops in other classic Delver cards. Geist of Saint Traft is still a powerful card, but I am not sure how powerful it will be in non-Delver decks. I will maintain a hold recommendation on this one, as its price appears to have stabilized for now (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com), unlike Snapcaster Mage.

I’ll also mention that U/W lands may be impacted as well as the metagame may shift towards other color combinations. Of course, no one with financial savvy should be holding their Seachrome Coasts this late in the Standard season unless they are winning tournament prizes with them. Even Glacial Fortress will fall slightly out of favor, and of course the M13 reprint increases supply to infinity practically commoditizing the land.

Cards With Potential

Rest assured not all beloved Standard cards will drop in price due to M13’s printing. As long as the format remains popular, demand will simply shift to other cards driving their prices up.

The printing of powerful white cards Sublime Archangel, Serra Avenger and Oblivion Ring should not be overlooked. Add in Restoration Angel and all our favorite token generators and we have the core of a competitive deck.

Of course I am no Standard expert and I will leave it to the pros to brew up new viable strategies. Instead, I’ll focus on recommending some puzzle pieces I feel will remain relevant with M13’s printing.

My top speculative play these days is Restoration Angel (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).

When this card was initially released, I immediately bought two copies for my Angel collection at a price of $4 each. Little did I know this would turn into a financial boon and that I should have bought dozens more. Since release, the card has doubled in price and they are difficult to find for less than $9 on eBay.

Yes, I know this card was a release promo and it has a price cap. At $10 it’s difficult to recommend a strong buy here. What I can guarantee is that this card will remain relevant in Standard and Modern, and that the card should be easy to move in trades even near retail pricing.

I only own one extra playset of the card because I recognize the hard price ceiling, but I certainly don’t mind picking these up in trades from people who still value it at $7.

Another card I have my eye on is Huntmaster of the Fells. With the aforementioned printing of powerful red and green cards in M13, I don’t see this card becoming less relevant. While its two-colored casting cost is somewhat prohibitive, it should still remain powerful and playable (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).

I cannot guarantee the card’s price will shoot up in the near term. But we do know this is a Mythic Rare from Dark Ascension, an underdrafted set. Any consistent demand should keep this card’s price up, and increase in demand should send the price higher.

Looking at other top performers in recent Star City Games tournaments, I see that Birthing Pod decks have recently increased in popularity. Unfortunately, we will see this card’s rotation very soon and this will keep its price down regardless of M13’s card list.

Long term, however, I see the card remaining relevant in Modern. I would recommend sitting on the sideline a little longer and then swooping in and purchasing a couple sets at price bottom, preferably below $2.

Finally, I can’t help but discuss the possibility of a mono-black deck. The newest Liliana Planeswalker, Vampire Nighthawk, Mutilate and Vampire Nocturnus all lend themselves to the possibility. Casual players love mono-black, but the deck always seems to fall short of Tier 1 status.

I would not necessarily buy heavily into any of these cards, but other mono-black cards are worth considering. The problem is, I’m not exactly sure which other black cards would be worthy of the deck. For example, would Demonlord of Ashmouth be any good? Could the six-mana bomb Mikaeus, the Unhallowed finally shine? I wouldn’t go deep into any one card in particular, but grabbing these as throw-ins in trades couldn’t hurt much. Especially Mikaeus, which is especially cheap for being a powerful Mythic Rare from Dark Ascension (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).

Wrapping It Up

There may only be a couple financially relevant cards in M13 itself. Players will be testing all the Planeswalkers to see if any of them merit their super-inflated preorder prices. Sublime Archangel will likely make its impact and deserve double digit value.

But when considering the set’s financial relevance, we should focus externally. I presented some theories on which cards are likely to drop and which are better suited to hold value or even increase, especially as rotation rapidly approaches. I would encourage you to consider these ideas and even recommend theories of your own.

Generically speaking, powerful Mythic Rares from Dark Ascension are worthwhile considerations because of their smaller quantities. A card like Mikaeus, the Unhallowed is a prime prospect, and with the possibility of a mono-black deck, who knows what the price ceiling may be.

Finally, I want to mention once more that Innistrad Duals are solid pick-ups if priced well. Based on my theories, the window to acquire these cards at the optimal price is rapidly closing. Once Scars block rotates and we are left with M10 Duals and Innistrad Duals (plus, supposedly, Shock Lands in Return to Ravnica) in Standard, I believe Innistrad Duals will slowly disappear from trade binders and increase in price.

Like all predictions, time will tell.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Jason’s Archives: A Defense of M13 and Epic Tales from the Prerelease.

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Greetings, Speculators!

It's quite possible that I've exceeded the maximum amount of time one can go without working as a chemist and still call oneself a chemist, at least primarily. A tepid market and my reluctance to move and sell my house have proven to be obstacles to getting back into the industry, and that would likely entail another short-term contract position like the one that landed me in my current position in the first place.

While I've encountered difficulty in the profession I trained for, I've found the barrier to entry into Magic finance much lower. The community is much more inviting than I'd anticipated. Professional connections are made effortlessly and notoriety is dished out on merit rather than nepotism. I've found that my insights and instincts are serving me well and that I have a natural knack for this business.

My B.S. may be in chemistry but I've spent the last year getting my PhD in MTG finance. I defended my thesis ("The Last Three Dollars," a treatise on offering a quarter for bulk rares) and people are starting to listen when I give advice.

It's with that in mind that I wager all of the professional capital I've accrued on the following controversial phrase:

"There is financial opportunity in M13."

That’s Like... the Opposite of Accurate, Bro

First of all, don't bro me if you don't know me. Second of all, hear me out.

I agree that most people will feel let down after the amazing EV of Avacyn Restored. That expectation in our minds may be too much for any set to match, least of all a core set that has recently dropped the titan cycle. With the exception of a few cards, whose inflated presale prices are likely to decrease, there doesn't appear to be much value.

But let’s not fail to learn the lessons Avacyn Restored has to offer. Everyone is so fixated on how good it is to open AVR boosters in the hope of getting an Entreat the Angels that they’ve already forgotten Terminus and Entreat the Angels were preselling for the same price ($5). True story. It's obvious that the card is bonkers now, but people weren't so sure at the time.

Got a called shot? It's not too late to pull the trigger.

Take a look at Thragtusk. It's no secret that this card is ridiculous and will be worth building around. Consequently everyone is looking at his $15 price tag right now saying, "Yeah, I could see that going higher." Well, how many of you prebought him at $6? That was his original price before he sold out swiftly and doubled in price, only to increase from there.

This set is full of [card Thragtusk]Thragtusks[/card]. Perhaps he is the only soon-to-be $20 card that could have been scooped at $6 (no point crying about it now). But if you double or triple your investment in a lower-value card you'll make the same amount as you could have speculating on Thragtusk. And the best part about speculating on "penny stocks" is that bargain basement prices can’t depreciate much, so your risk in picking them up is virtually nil.

It’s not my purview to give specific advice on which cards to invest in. But I’m sure you’ve all seen a card or two in the spoiler that seems way too good to justify its bulk presale price.

Maybe said card has applications in EDH. Maybe casual players will snap it up. Maybe the card is powerful but no one has bothered to break it yet.

Trust your instincts. If you’re staring at a card with huge combo potential, casual appeal or EDH utility and you’re wondering why it’s preselling at bulk, the answer is simple. Presale prices feel wrong because they are. Those cards are just waiting for you to snap them up and make bank.

Just like it took a week or two for the price of obviously nutty cards like Entreat the Angels to go up, there is still financial opportunity in M13. The set isn't even on sale officially yet!

Pull the trigger. Get that card you know should be worth more, because soon it will be. Trust your gut, not the presale prices. That is, unless you think Liliana of the Dark Realms is a $30 card.

The Only Thing Worse Than the Helvault (Is Nothing at All)

The prerelease was this weekend which unfortunately means no decklists for you this week. However, I think I can more than make up for it with the stuff I found from the prerelease. Let's not waste any more time.

Remember Gameshark?

I don't know of any codes in Duel of the Planeswalkers to start at 100 life or give all of your opponents bobble heads, but allow me to humbly offer a much more useful collection of cheat codes:

Duel of the Planeswalkers the easy way

Redditor Egibson has collected all of the Duel of the Planeswalkers 2013 codes that we've come across so far online. These will unlock a ton of free content and the posting on Reddit contains instructions on where and how to enter the codes.

I'm sure a lot of you would equate this to buying trophies to put on your mantle, but if you want to get this content the easy way, it's my job to give you the option. Enjoy.

There’s More Than One Way to Play Magic on Easy Mode

I noticed this when mine traded with my oppnent's Birds of Paradise, which shouldn't happen for a lot of reasons

Redditor AvrosKyargath brings us a creature that is significantly weaker on DOTP2013 than it is in real life. Hopefully they either patch this soon or mail everyone sharpies so we can fix our cardboard copy. Whichever is cheaper.

Some Quaint Folk Still Prefer Paper Magic

For those of you less interested in computerized Magic and more in winning on easy mode in real life, a few redditors bring tales from the prerelease.

Sybertron's guide to nothingness

Redditor Sybertron brings us a thorough review of how he used Door to Nothingness to win the easy way. That's right, Magic is a game where assembling all five colors of mana, untapping with an artifact and racing your opponent's threats is doing things the easy way. Great report, Sybertron.



 

Admit it, you're impressed.

Redditor Spehiroth912 has brought us a sighting of someone getting the elusive Battle of Wits victory at his local prerelease.

This scene is very easily staged, but I am going to echo Trick Jarret who shared this pic with the twitterverse when he stumbled across it a few days ago -- "I believe."



 

The fearsome Nicol Bolas oversees a local tournament

Redditor Midnighthero was in charge of his prerelease so he decided to sculpt a fearsome set of [card Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker]Nicol Bolas[/card] horns to keep the competitors in line. Here he appears to be telling people how many hours they have in deck construction.

Savor the Flavor

One card that has real flavor issues associated with it is the new [card Liliana of the Dark Realms]Liliana[/card]. Redditor MiffTheFox thinks he can fix them, though.

Either that or Liliana won their fight and couldn't wait to display her trophy

I think the revised card makes much more sense.

That's All I Got for Ya's

Prerelease weekend means no decklists to talk about. But if you can't get enough of my wit and wisdom, the Brainstorm Brewery podcast has a special guest this week to discuss the financial implications of M13.

Tune in to hear me, Corbin, Marcel and our guest debate the finer points of a core set with low EV and how you can get the most bang for your buck. If you routinely read Corbin's articles you won't want to miss this special episode. Look for it later this week.

Good luck in your upcoming release day events. May your opponent always cut you to your bombs, may your Vampire Nighthawk ever be enchanted with Rancor and may your Batterskull always return to your hand.

Jason Alt
@JasonEAlt on Twitter

Entreat the Angels

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From time to time, I get an opportunity to help new casual players build their first Commander deck. I usually start by asking them what strategies they enjoy, what cards they brought to the store that day (or didn’t), and how much they are willing to invest to improve their deck.

Last week someone came in with an extensive collection of foil angels --Karmic Guide, judge foil Exalted Angel, Twilight Shepherd. Name an angel, he had it; if a foil was available, he had it. It was one of the most insane collections I've seen in a while. He had decided to build a mono-angels Commander deck to give some of those foils a home.

The first thing we established was that he wanted to be mono-white for thematic purposes. Between Selenia, Dark Angel and the three Avacyn Restored legends, you can play any two-color combination with an angel as your Commander. There aren’t many other non-white Angels, so a second color mostly just contributes utility spells.

The issue at that point is picking a Commander, but before we get too far, let's start with the list of angels headlining the deck that will form the bulk.

Ladies in White

The important thing to recognize when you're building around giant, flashy, expensive angels is that your deck will be slow. For a lot of people, that may seem like a disadvantage that cannot be overcome, but that's not true. It's fine for your deck to be slow as long as you prepare adequately and set up your deck to make games go longer.

This means sweepers, lifegain and resilient creatures will be the bread and butter of a deck like this. The suite of angels accomplish all three of these things.

  • Adarkar Valkyrie
  • Aegis Angel
  • Angel of Glory's Rise
  • Angel of Jubilation
  • Angel of Salvation
  • Angelic Arbiter
  • Angelic Overseer
  • Archangel of Strife
  • Baneslayer Angel
  • Battlegrace Angel
  • Blinding Angel
  • Deathless Angel
  • Emeria Angel
  • Exalted Angel
  • Herald of War
  • Karmic Guide
  • Lightkeeper of Emeria
  • Platinum Angel
  • Pristine Angel
  • Requiem Angel
  • Restoration Angel
  • Serra Angel
  • Shattered Angel
  • Sunblast Angel
  • Twilight Shepherd
  • Victory's Herald
  • Decree of Justice
  • Entreat the Angels
  • Akroma, Angel of Wrath
  • Avacyn, Angel of Hope
  • Linvala, Keeper of Silence
  • Reya Dawnbringer

That's a lot of angels, many of which provide utility effects to drag games out. You have lifegain from Lightkeeper of Emeria and Battlegrace Angel; resiliency from Karmic Guide and Adarkar Valkyrie; and even a creature sweeper in Sunblast Angel and an acceleratnt in Herald of War.

Really though, all of these angels were going to be played one way or another. There were only really two questions that needed to be answered. First, who should the commander be? Second, which angels can be cut if they aren't pulling their weight?

The first question is pretty easy, since there aren't that many options. The first thing we decided was that Iona, Shield of Emeria was a bad idea. She encourages non-interactive games, leaves people feeling bad, and just isn't a ton of fun to have at the top of your curve.

The second one that we threw out was Reya Dawnbringer. Even though she has a super powerful effect that this deck certainly wants access to, she's not resilient enough to be an effective commander at six mana.

Of the commanders left, Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Akroma, Angel of Wrath do similar things for the deck. They let you keep hands with nothing but ramp since they give you a threat to ramp into. They apply a ton of pressure and give the deck a significant amount of resiliency if that's what you're looking for.

But since most of your deck is already comprised of curve topping threats, I don't think you need another one as the commander.

That leaves Linvala, Keeper of Silence, which we agreed was the best choice. It applies pressure and interacts early on. It also shuts down some of the more degenerate commanders in the format, and buys you time to ramp up to your bombs. Most importantly, it allows you to run powerful midgame cards like [card Sword of Fire and Ice]Swords[/card] so that your deck isn't nothing but Angels if it does turn out that the list is running too much top end.

The question of what to cut is a little harder to answer, since it depends on the rest of the deck. The following are the angels that I'd look at closely to see if they're doing good work:

Angel of Glory's Rise and Angelic Overseer need humans to be really good, and I don't know if there are many this deck wants to run. All the angels that gain life are similar, so you could cut Lightkeeper of Emeria, Shattered Angel or Battlegrace Angel. Last, I think you could probably cut either Angel of Salvation or Archangel of Strife because they don’t do enough at the top of the curve when you compare them to Avacyn or Akroma.

The Supporting Cast

What’s almost more important than all of the angels you're planning to cast is how you get there. How do you make sure you’re still alive by the time you get enough mana to cast those guys? How do you avoid getting blown out by a removal spell on the first angel you play? These are questions that you have to be prepared to answer, and I thought we could use a great on-theme approach:

  • Brass Herald
  • Sunseed Nurturer
  • Angelic Chorus
  • Defy Death
  • Miraculous Recovery
  • Well of Lost Dreams
  • Book of Rass
  • Nim Deathmantle

The theme here is that your life total matters. Gaining life is something that white, and angels in particular, is good at. So it stands to reason that you won't have a particularly difficult time keeping your life total high. As long as you don't die to commander damage, you should be able to buy enough time to let your angels take over the board and start turning your life-gain into extra cards with Book of Rass or Well of Lost Dreams.

Because of that, we have a few extra lifegain cards in Angelic Chorus and Sunseed Nurturer. Nurturer in particular is insane because it's both ramp, lifegain, and a human for Angel of Glory's Rise!

Last, we have a few extra cards that give your angels some resiliency to removal. Defy Death is a fine on-theme reanimation spell, although I do prefer Miraculous Recovery for being instant-speed. My favorite of all of them though is Nim Deathmantle, even though it's the card I would cut first for flavor reasons. Zombie angels aren't exactly thematically correct.

Controlling the Board

Nothing too exciting here. We have a bunch of typical utility cards. Note the inclusion of sweepers that tuck or exile things. Since we’re planning on going really late, we will need to have answers to recurring threats and these wrath variants do the trick.

  • Path to Exile
  • Swords to Plowshares
  • Austere Command
  • Final Judgment
  • Hallowed Burial
  • Terminus
  • Solemn Offering
  • Revoke Existence
  • Tormod's Crypt

This is the section of the deck I'd like to expand on the most, but doing so would involve cutting some number of angels to make more space. When I first build a theme deck, I don’t like compromising in that area.

Managing Mana

I keep mentioning that one of the most important parts of this deck will be making sure you can cast your angels on or ahead of time. There are quite a few tools to ensure you continuously hit your land drops, and those cards backed by artifact mana should be more than good enough to do the job.

  • Land Tax
  • Weathered Wayfarer
  • Expedition Map
  • Paradise Plume
  • Urza's Incubator
  • Wayfarer's Bauble
  • Marble Diamond
  • Coalition Relic
  • Worn Powerstone
  • Sol Ring
  • Fellwar Stone
  • Everflowing Chalice
  • Mind Stone

Something that people don't often think about is how you can optimize your ramp based on your curve.

The common sequences of ramp are 2-4-6 and 3-5; it's important to figure out which your deck prefers. 2-4-6 refers to playing a ramp spell on turn two, like Mind Stone or Rampant Growth, and following it up with Solemn Simulacrum or Explosive Vegetation to hit six mana on turn four for any manner of titan or dragon.

The 3-5 scheme is more focused on consistency than explosiveness, and is more focused on cards like Cultivate than on cards like Rampant Growth. Usually these produce more mana over the course of a game, but do it much more slowly than the 2-4-6 set up. This set up is better for control decks that want the game to go long. You'd rather generate cards and land drops than spend cards to pull ahead early on.

Granted, this scheme gets messed up a little if you make space for the Cloudpost and [card Urzas Tower]Urzatron[/card] engines, since those can allow you to make strange jumps like two to seven, but it's still good to have an overall plan.

On the subject of mana bases, let's put one together for this and take a look at the finished product.

Commander: Linvala, Keeper of Silence

Untitled Deck

Creatures

Sorceries

Instants

Artifacts

Enchantments

Lands

Decks like this are a good reminder that you don't need crazy combos or super-efficient, overpowered cards for a deck to succeed. At its heart, Commander is a casual format that's about having fun, whatever that means for you. For some people, it's as simple as casting giant angels or showcasing the sweet cards they've collected over the years. People play the game for all kinds of different reasons, and casual play is a great reminder of that for those of us who are so deeply involved in the culture of the game that we don't remember what it's like to be truly casual.

I haven't quite figured out what I'll have ready for next week, so if you're reading this and you've got any questions or decks you'd like to see, be sure to get in touch. I'm always glad to talk shop!

Carlos Gutierrez

cag5383@gmail.com
@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: Next year’s chase Commander foils, today

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All you need to know about how Commander influences foil prices is to look at Expedition Map. The low common goes for over $10 to the right player because when you become a Commander, you want foils all around you. All of those spells should be holographic! While we knew Map would be a good staple in Commander, I don't think people called that it would be this much for a common, this early. Today, I'm going to share my forecasts for the next hot Commander cards - ones I think will double or triple in price in a year or two. Let's start!

Exsanguinate

Which means to remove the blood from something.

In this case, it's each enemy that you can look at.

Exsanguinate is part of nefarious monoblack decks but it's also a potent blade in other long-game, spell-focused decks. In a four-player game, hitting this thing for X=8 makes for 24 life in your favor. Heck, this thing is a variable Kokusho that doesn't get exiled all the damn time. Exsanguinate is popular and when a casual player looks at it, they immediately make the connection that this card scales really, really well with multiplayer games.

What I can't believe is that this card goes for under a dollar in foil online. The general rule for retailers seems to be "every foil is worth $2 if it's playable at all!" Thus, I think this card is a real steal at what it goes for right now. This is a great long-term scoop. It's also a good candidate for a card to get if you want to juice up a trade binder. I know that foils can be hard to move, but this is the kind of card that someone who wants Commander foils will jump at - and maybe overvalue emotionally.

Staff of Nin

You've got to know that if you play a non-blue deck in Commander, it's easy to be crushed under card advantage. The reason is simple - for every card you draw, your "opponent" draws three. It doesn't matter that your opponent has three or four heads in this instance. In nonblue decks, it's really challenging to see a card here or there. I play a Karn, Silver Golem deck (39 nonbasics!) and I have to resort to things like paying echo on Urza's Blueprints to stay in the game. I'm looking forward to the Staff and it's going to be high on the list of non-blue draw tools that are worth playing. Seriously, this has an effect similar to Honden of Seeing Winds and it pings things. It only asks you for mana once, instead of things like Jayemdae Tome or Temporal Aperture.

It's hard to get a real price on this card in foil right now since it's brand new and a promo, but the non-foil goes for $0.50 right now so the foil will probably settle for a dollar or two. This is another one to nab early.

Mwonvuli Beast Tracker

Just about all of the good monsters in Commander have one of these abilities and it fits a very convenient color scheme. Green is the color of "bounce me for utility ETB effects" and this is a fine effect. It would be much better if it were like Fierce Empath and put it in your hand, but it's still a good monster. I don't expect phenomenal foil prices on this, but it's good to keep an eye on.

Trading Post

So the closest thing I can think of with this is Staff of Domination, another artifact with a crazy list of abilities and a home on the Banned list in Commander. Trading Post doesn't do anything blatantly broken with mana generators and it cannot untap itself, which is a challenging drawback. However, this card also has a lot of utility wrapped up in it that card. Consider this: there's a lot of destruction that happens in Commander. You've got a creature checking out already? Cash it in for an artifact that you lost earlier. You can even step things further if all you recovered was a now-useless Signet, since Trading Post can slowly cycle it away. I get it, the tapping blows, but this really does do a great job of converting resources that you have too much of into something that you might want. A Goat token can play Forcefield to keep a bigger monster away. This, like Druidic Satchel, will find its way into a lot of decks that aren't sure of their last spots. It's going to be a fan favorite for a lot of players who will write forum posts about everything that they did with their Trading Post in that game. I'm looking forward to telling Mana Crypt to GTFO when I'm done with it, for one.

Reliquary Tower

Now mind you, these are already kind of a hot ticket. Their reprint is going to do a funny thing to the market. There will be a lot more of these, so the non-foil price will even out a bit. The foil price might dip a bit too, but you're really going to clean up on these with toss-in trades from Standard players. Foils of this card are about $8 or so from Alara and you wouldn't know it if you didn't play Commander. Heck, you can pillage this from draft pickings and still walk away with $1 uncommons in non-foil. This is the card to keep an eye out for. It's like the people with foil Mana Leaks when it was reprinted in 8th Edition who were happy to trade them away, even when you told them that they were $5 cards. The price on these will pick up again, but I predict a dip even in online prices as the new foils crush the demand for older foils.

So there's the short list for now. Not every card is as obvious as "get foil Gilded Lotuses for later" but I have confidence that we'll see some action in these. If you've got your eye on Commander foils that seem underpriced or you're wondering about something in M13 (or older sets) that I left off, post it up here! In time, $2 Cultivates become $7 Kodama's Reaches.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

M13 Arrives At Last!

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The prerelease is here! This is one of the most exciting times for Magic players because we receive the gift of new cards. With new cards come new possibilities and new hopes for success, at the kitchen table, FNM and large events alike.

Right before a new set release, I like to take a look at which cards will have the largest impact on competitive Magic, with a focus on Standard. Some cards won't do much until Scars Block rotates out of Standard, but others will have an immediate impact.

Let me say that narrowing this list down was especially hard, because while few new cards will have a dramatic impact, many will probably see play.

For example, it is vital to know that Essence Scatter and Rewind are the counterspells that will be available this upcoming year, but neither is likely to dominate right away with Mana Leak still running around.

Before getting to the main course, we have to cover the...

Honorable Mentions

Rewind -- Since I mentioned this one above, I thought it only fitting to start with it. Free spells should not be underestimated. This counter has not been in Standard since Ninth Edition, but it did see some play during that time. Four mana is a lot, which means two to three copies is all most decks can handle. Let's just hope that this is too mana intensive for Delver, because a free counter in that deck is scary to say the least.


Augur of Bolas -- Many authors have spoken about this card and its applications for Delver, but I doubt it will see play in Delver. I think this card's real home is a control deck like U/B or U/W Control, where it may well be amazing. It blocks early and since control is usually looking for an instant or sorcery anyway, it will usually draw a relevant card.

Augur is good, but designed for a specific deck type. Consider how many spells you have before you add this to your next deck.


Attended Knight –- This may seem like a poor man's Blade Splicer, but consider what creature you will blink with Restoration Angel once Splicer rotates from Standard. I’m not saying this guy is guaranteed to see play, just that it’s worth thinking about.


Planar Cleansing –- This is an interesting but awkward choice for the white sweeper of a core set. Costing six is even more problematic than usual because it will have to compete with Terminus. I think that is a battle Terminus will always win, but Planar Cleansing does rid you of every problematic permanent in play. For example, it is one of the only cards that can kill multiple planeswalkers.

Unfortunately, the deck that usually wants to play a card like Planar Cleansing also wants to play its own pile of planeswalkers. This Akromas Vengeance upgrade may be better suited to a non-traditional control deck like G/W Control that can ramp into a bunch of lands in the early game.


War Priest of Thune and Knight of Glory –- These Grizzly Bears are both solid and will probably see some amount of play. They are both Humans which could prove to be an important characteristic.

Both creatures measure up to the power level of competitive Magic, but Knight of Glory is more likely to see play. This White Knight variant adds consistency and power to the Humans deck. It gives you another way to make Champion of the Parish a 3/3 in addition to Gather the Townsfolk.


Liliana of the Dark Realms –- The new planeswalker is proving hard to evaluate. Four mana is a good cost for these abilities, but her loyalty is what concerns me. I would be quicker to jump on board if her starting loyalty was four. Three seems too low because you cannot use her as a removal spell the turn you cast her without letting her die. That being said, she does draw an extra land every turn, which is a powerful effect for controlling decks.

That’s all for the Honorable Mentions. Let’s dive into the cards that are most likely to have a big impact. Without Further ado I bring you...

Top 10 Constructed Cards from M13

10. Mwonvuli Beast Tracker –- The green cards from M13 are very exciting and this card does not disappoint. I identified it early on this spoiler season as a potential power player. Speaking of blinkable three-drops to fill the void soon to be left by Blade Splicer, this guy should do the trick! Take a look at the list of targets below.

Untitled Deck

Blue

Black

Red

Green

Multicolored

Artifact

That is the complete list of creature cards that will be legal to search for. Obviously cards like Greater Basilisk and Aven Fleetwing are not Constructed playable but I wanted to include every option available.

Some of the more promising ones are solid threats that we are used to seeing in Standard like Thrun the Last Troll, Acidic Slime, and Primeval Titan. That is a lot of flexibility for an innocent-looking card and I expect new Ravnica to have some cool targets as well.


9. Knight of Infamy -- The new Black Knight variant fills an important role by virtue of costing two mana. Aggressive Zombie decks have been waiting for this card. Both Gravecrawler and Diregraf Ghoul can attack for three on turn two with this guy. Protection from white is great as well. Players include Sword of War and Peace specifically for the protection it offers and Knight of Infamy will be good for the same reason.


8. Flames of the Firebrand –- I remember Arc Lightning being a powerful effect. I think this spell will provide versatility to red Standard decks. It's effective against a wide variety of threats and if they don't have creatures that let you two-for-one them, it is still a reasonable burn spell.


7. Disciple of Bolas –- This card seems totally sweet! Yes, four mana is a lot but it is the best follow up ever to Geralfs Messenger. Even if you only get to sacrifice a Gravecrawler, you still draw two cards and gain two life. This new draw spell on legs will be great with any recurrable threat and absolutely insane with Messenger.


6. Quirion Dryad –- As the centerpiece of the well-known Miracle Grow deck from times past, this creature has a proven track record. It was reprinted in Tenth Edition and did not see much play then because of the environment but I think Quirion Dryad is well positioned once more. Going into a multicolored block, this is exactly the type of creature I will be looking to abuse.


5. Vampire Nighthawk –- This is the perfect example of an efficient threat. It is so good that control decks used to play this in the main or board for certain matchups. It will be good in a variety of decks. We even got Vampire Nocturnus back to pair with it if we get enough vampires to support a tribal deck again. Even if the vampire tribe’s time in the limelight is past, Nighthawk will still see a considerable amount of play.


4. Thundermaw Hellkite –- The new dragon on the block has been called the next Baneslayer Angel and compared to the likes of Rorix Bladewing and Demigod of Revenge. This guy can break through a wall of 1/1 flying blockers and tap anything else in the way, an ability none of his competitors of yore could boast. The limiting factor is his mana cost, especially considering he would go in an aggressive deck. I think the most obvious home for him is a Birthing Pod deck, where you can cheat on his cost and produce an army capable of killing in one swing.


3. Rancor –- Oh my goodness, Rancor is back! Wow. I never in a million years thought that they would reprint this classic. It brings back so many memories of my days playing Nine Land Stompy. I still have my FNM foil playset from that deck sitting in a box ready to be used once again.

Rancor is the gold standard by which auras are measured. If you've never played with it, think of it like an Angelic Destiny that only costs one mana. This is the best gift green has gotten in a long while. Strangleroot Geist with a Rancor or two will become a common sight in the near future, and it may single-handedly propel Dungrove Green to tier one.


2. Ajani, Caller of the Pride –- New planeswalkers are usually hard to evaluate, but not this one. The similarities to Elspeth, Knight Errant help us gauge the power level. It may or may not be the central piece of a tier one deck, but it will see play.

I find myself wishing that his +1 ability granted vigilance to your creature as well because that is a very Ajani ability, but even so all the abilities are quite good. Unlike the new Liliana, if you use his minus ability the first turn he comes into play, he sticks around for more action. Personally I think it should be the other way around, but it does make this a very good card.


1. Thragtusk –- Let me be frank about my number one pick. The power level of this card alarms me somewhat and it may indeed spell the doom of aggro in Standard.

How is anyone going to play an aggressive deck? Can you kill them before their turn three or four? If you can't, what are you going to do when they gain five life? Even if you kill Thragtusk, it gets replaced with a 3/3.

Now consider we have options like Restoration Angel to blink it or even Beast Within to make two 3/3’s. Birthing Pod will certainly abuse this card as will any deck that feels like splashing it. Timely Reinforcements was bad enough, but this is even worse. It does require you to play green mana but that is not too much to ask. On the bright side, at least you cannot tutor for it with Mwonvuli Beast Tracker.

Good Night and Adieu

So those are my picks for best Constructed cards out of M13. Sound off in the comments and let me know what you think!

Until Next Time,

Unleash the M13 Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Magic 2013 Prerelease Primer

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Here we go again. Today we’re breaking down M13 and making my financial predictions for the set.

I’m going to assume everyone here is familiar with my set reviews and how I do them. If not, here’s the cliff notes. I take these very seriously, and in the past I’ve done very, very well at making people money with these. To me, that’s not bragging, that’s accepting responsibility. I act on my own predictions and make money doing so; I expect other people to do the same. That means I won’t be giving you a half-assed review. This is my trading strategy for the Prerelease, and I hope you can make money from my calls as well.

I assume you know that a bulk rare, is in fact, a bulk rare. Or close enough to it to not be worth mentioning. Unless you hit on a sleeper (like I did by calling Zealous Conscripts at 50 cents for Avacyn Restored), you can safely ignore most of the rares you’ll see at the prerelease.

AVR was pretty good for us. I correctly called the spikes in Restoration Angel and Zealous Conscripts, pinpointed Cavern of Souls and Temporal Mastery with my only incorrect call being Griselbrand, a move that caused me to trade mine away at $5 under its current retail value. I also missed the spike in Bonfire, which was unfortunate, though I did later correct my call on it before it moved past $15.

All in all, I’ll take it. Let’s hope I can do as well here.

Core sets are a little different animal to call. The biggest problem is that, more than any other set, you have to be able to see both how it fits into the current metagame as well as a post-rotation metagame. With so little time in between the core set release and the Standard rotation, this isn’t always easy.

Let’s get started.

Ajani, Caller of the Pride

This cat is going for $40 on SCG, and that’s definitely high. I see him in a Liliana-type role. He’s very good, but doesn’t slot into every deck that shares his color. That said, there will be plenty of games where you lose the dice roll and have one land in play, facing down a 5-loyalty Planeswalker. Normally you don’t evaluate the ultimate to determine power level of Planeswalkers, but as early as this guy comes down it’s relevant enough that his ultimate is something to be scared of.

I see him setting around $25, give or take five bucks either way, unlike the next Walker on this list.

Liliana of the Dark Realms

Preselling at $30, which as you would expect, is too high. It’s possible Liliana finds a home in Standard, but I can’t imagine it’s going to be a nice one. She basically just doesn’t do anything. Hitting your land drops is nice, and I understand it can “fix” your mana with Shocklands, but in the end she’s just not that threatening.

Still, there’s EDH demand along with whatever playability she has, so I see a $10-15 price tag holding up down the road. It may take a little while to fall that low, but a year from now she’s going to be all but forgotten.

Rhox Faithmender

It’s worth noting that this won’t ever be bulk. Casual players like Lifegain, and as far as “worthless” rares go, this isn’t the worst to nab as a throw-in. I expect it to crop up on buylists for a dollar down the road, and it’s selling for $2.50 on SCG. Obviously there’s nothing huge here, but it’s worth mentioning.

Serra Avenger

I think it’s incredibly awesome they’re reprinting this card. I also don’t love it in Standard, as crazy as that might sound. Since you can’t play it until turn 4, it’s a virtual four-drop, where it will compete with Restoration Angel and the new (gives) Exalted Angel. That’s some stiff competition, not to mention it loses in a fight with Resto. All of that means the $3 pricetag is about right.

Sublime Archangel

This is a really difficult card to pin down for me. A lot of times attacking with one creature is worse than swinging with the team, but there’s still a lot to like here. For starters, it trades straight-up with Restoration Angel, which is a good test to pass. Secondly, it has pseudo-haste since it will provide a huge pump the turn it comes into play, much the way Rafiq of the Many did. And there are a ton of Hexproof guys running around right now, meaning you’re even less likely to get blown out in combat.

It’s out of stock at $20 on SCG, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some upward movement from there. I don’t think it can go much higher than $25 for very long (if at all), but it also will have a difficult time going below $12-15. I’m looking at Geist of Saint Traft levels here, between $20-25, especially since the pair will go in many of the same decks. Geist is played more in older formats, but the Angel is well, an Angel, and won’t be opened as long as Geist was, so it should mostly balance out.

War Falcon

Grab foils. I have no idea if this will see any play, but it’s a pretty damn good answer to an early Delver and curves perfectly into Thalia.

Battle of Wits

You better believe this will trade well early in the set’s release, even though it’s a meager 50 cents on SCG.

Augur of Bolas

This guy is playable. He’s not going to be a super expensive Uncommon, since only a few decks want him, but I do expect him to see play. Means you should be on the lookout for these in draft leftovers or foil versions.

Master of the Pearl Trident

Merfolk! Merfolk! Merfolk! (Listen to the latest cast of Brainstorm Brewery for more context). Presells at $5 is probably a few bucks too high, but I do think this will help to revitalize Fish in Legacy, where they were already on the upswing, as well as possibly pushing the deck into Modern. Look for gains in the peripheral Merfolk cards from older sets.

Disciple of Bolas

This is my pick for sleeper card of the set. At $3 pre-sales, I’m not sure how much upside there is, and I don’t like a cash buy. But I do like aggressively trading for it at two bucks on Prerelease day. This guy doesn’t fit into a possible Vampires deck since the 4-spot is full, but if Zombies is looking to complement Falkenrath Aristocrats at the 4-drop spot, this guy is great. He eats a Messenger for infinite value, and even chomping on a Gravecrawler isn’t exactly bad.

Interestingly, the foil version of this guy is sold out at $10 on SCG.

Vampire Nocturnus

This guy is rightly expensive, sitting at $13 on SCG. Thanks to this reprint, his days as a $20 card are over, but we could see a spike to that level if the big guy busts back into Standard. The Vampires deck is about two cards away (another 1 and 2-drop) from being really good. I expect this guy to trade extremely well during his second run through Standard.

Thundermaw Hellkite

They wanted a Baneslayer Angel in Dragon form, and they found it here. He’s out of stock at $20 on SCG, and there are only 2 copies of foils at $50! This Dragon is the real deal. Even if Vapor Snagged he’s going to do some work, and the only problem is how many competing options RG has at the five-drop spot now with him, Thragtusk and Silverheart. Hellkite is a definite beating, though, so I expect him to stay over $10 without a doubt, and probably settle in the $13-15 range, with even higher numbers possible if he becomes the go-to five-drop.

Flinthoof Boar

This is the best Constructed-playable piece of the cycle. Nab them from draft tables and scoop up foils.

Ground Seal

A respectable Green answer to Snapcaster. These should move around pretty well in your trade binder for being basically free right now.

Thragtusk

Now this beast is truly, well, a beast. Says no to Vapor Snag and helps stabilize immediately. I don’t like how splashable he is, but that’s just my design complaint, not a dismissal of his power. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few Cavern of Souls name Beast just to make sure this bad boy hits play.

As just a rare, and another five-drop, $10 is probably high. I see him on the Silverheart level of $7-8 instead, but you can’t really go wrong trading into this guy at the prerelease.

There are a ton of casual favorites in this set, from Gilded Lotus to Akroma's Memorial to Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker. This is going to drop the price of these cards across the board, but they’ll still be good throw-in targets since all are EDH or casual staples.

That’s it! Let me know what you all think of my calls. Too far out there? Am I missing anything?

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

With Apologies to Gitaxian Probe: On Snapcaster, Cantrips and Brainstorm

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Many Magic players have a tendency to be competitively minded. This impacts their attitude as they approach a game as well as their attitudes about winning and losing. Perhaps more importantly, this impacts the way that they think and talk about the game.

There are a lot of players that care more about believing that they’re already right than they do about learning new things. This is most commonly demonstrated in the use of results-oriented thinking; that is, a player asserting that they did something correctly because they won a game by doing so.

I won't tell anybody.

It would be nice to believe that we know everything. Nobody can deny that it feels good to know and understand things. Additionally, awareness of things that we don’t know can prove maddening. The problem being that the things that we don’t know far outnumber the things that we do.

Players are frequently reminded that in every game that they lose, there is something they could have done differently. They are less often reminded of the things they could be doing better when they’re winning.

Some of the best Magic cards end up being the most commonly misplayed. The reason being that it’s easy to win when you draw three Bloodbraid Elfs, even if you play them all sub-optimally. Of course, the nuances of playing Bloodbraid Elf and winning Jund mirrors are a bit dated. Currently, the best cards that I see frequently misplayed are Snapcaster Mage and Brainstorm.

The two share a common problem, and that is that they almost always generate some sort of value. So long as a card replaces itself, it’s difficult for many to comprehend that it was wasted.

Let’s start by looking at Snapcaster Mage, specifically in UW Delver.

The Snapcantrip

I frequently see it posited that what pushes Snapcaster Mage over the top is the ability to flashback Ponder, Gitaxian Probe and Thought Scour. This is somewhat true, but not for the reasons that I see backing this claim. These are all fine Snapcaster targets, but they're generally worse than just flashing back relevant cards.

Snapcaster Mage flashing back Gitaxian Probe on turn two is just a glorified Elvish Visionary that costs two life. This play is hardly intrinsically good. It can be strong when the first Probe shows that your opponent is going to be getting a slow start and your hand is incapable of otherwise applying pressure. Alternatively, I like the play when the first Probe tells you that you need to draw something quickly. For the most part, though, I dislike throwing away a Snapcaster like this when either player’s hand is good.

If my hand is good, why do I need the cantrip? If their hand is good, won’t I need to rebuy a spell stronger than one that gives me information I already have? Perhaps one like Vapor Snag or Mana Leak that actually interact with them. If I don’t have any such cards, then the cantrip is clearly the best option, but it’s far from ideal.

On top of that, how relevant is the 2/1 body, really? Sure, he does the same work as any other creature when equipped, but until that can happen he mostly just dies to half of a Strangleroot Geist or one-quarter of a Lingering Souls.

The reason that cantripping with Snapcaster is good is that it adds to the card’s modality. Unless you’re in the market for something random, a cantrip is the least powerful thing that can be flashed back.

Let’s take a look at an example of lack-luster Snapcastering.

Early last month Todd Anderson posted video from a daily event with Gerry Thompson’s Angel Delver.

In game one of round two of the daily, Todd keeps a very strong hand on the draw, if slightly mana-light. He Probes his opponent on turn one and sees that his opponent has kept a speculative (see: weak) hand with a Ponder. Todd plays a Delver and passes.

On his opponent’s turn two he casts his Ponder, doesn’t shuffle and then pays life to Probe Todd. On Todd’s turn he plays Snapcaster Mage and flashes back his Gitaxian Probe. This is the exact play that ends up costing Todd the game.

Among the two cards that Todd’s opponent had drawn since Todd’s first Probe was a Geist of Saint Traft, which Todd could have easily Mana Leaked had he not cantripped so aggressively.

Not only did he not respect the possibility that his opponent could draw Geist, he also cantripped in a position where it simply made no sense. He was ahead on board, he had already drawn his third land and saving the Snapcaster Mage until after he spent his Mana Leak would very likely lock his opponent out of the game.

Throughout the rest of the game Todd continues to use Snapcasters and Restoration Angels to cantrip where it’s arguably wrong, but I think that these plays are largely irrelevant in comparison to his hyper-aggressive turn-two Snapcaster-Probe.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that flashing back a cantrip with Snapcaster Mage is akin to putting two +1/+1 counters on a creature with Jund Charm: while it is a powerful ability, it is generally going to be less powerful than the card’s other modes.

Now, let’s move on to some trickier business…

Brainstorm

If you haven’t read AJ Sacher’s Pondering Brainstorm, then do yourself a favor and give it a read. Then read it again. Then go play a few rounds of Legacy. Then read it a third time.

For as much attention as Brainstorm get,s it is still played incorrectly far more often than correctly. Again, this is largely because it’s an immensely powerful card that always replaces itself.

Generally, it’s best to be patient with your Brainstorms. If your life total is relatively high, there’s no reason to aggressively dig for the Swords to Plowshares to kill your opponents Delver. That said, a player will be rewarded for their impatience relatively often considering just how powerful drawing three cards is.

There are a lot of ways to Brainstorm improperly, but the one that irks me the most is probably burning one to flip a Delver. For starters, this play shows an utter disrespect for the fact that the Delver deck is roughly 50% Instants and Sorceries. RUG Delver is built so that your Delvers are going to flip a lot. Have a little faith.

What makes this play especially bad is that it’s really not that different from casting an Unholy Strength. I understand that Unholy Strength doesn’t replace itself, but if the Brainstorm that you used to flip your Delver doesn’t find you another Brainstorm, then it hasn’t exactly replaced itself either. It is the most powerful card in RUG Delver and it’s really not close.

As AJ clearly states in his article, “Brainstorm is not a cantrip.”

When a player considers it to be one, their play and card evaluation slips drastically.

For the life of me I do not understand why Thought Scour is still played in RUG Delver, and this is coming from a guy who played Mental Note in early incarnations of the deck.

Basically, the card is seen as the 9th-10th cantrip, but it’s actually the only true cantrip in the deck. Brainstorm and Ponder both net you more than one card of value.

Thought Scour is essentially a do-nothing. It interacts well with Brainstorm, Ponder, Nimble Mongoose and, to an extent, Delver, but what does it actually do as a singular card? Unlike Brainstorm and Ponder, it does little more than Cycle.

Let’s take a look at a few hands:



The first and second hands are dramatically better than the third.

The Brainstorm in the first hand allows you to shuffle away either the Lightning Bolt or the Spell Pierce if they turn out to be irrelevant, or just lets you wait until your opponent does something that you need to react to at which point it does a pretty good Ancestral Recall impression.

The Ponder hand will potentially leave a dead card or two stuck in your hand, but the Polluted Delta means that the Ponder itself will likely be good.

The Thought Scour hand is extremely borderline. It basically leaves you at the mercy of the top of your deck if your opponent can deal with your Delver of Secrets. Of course, the Thought Scour could be anything. Even another Thought Scour!

For the most part, I feel that there are too many strong, prevalent decks in Legacy right now to play a crappy cantrip like Thought Scour. Reanimator demands that you play plenty of counters. And the presence of Maverick and Merfolk to counter the presence of Reanimator demands that you play plenty of removal. There just isn’t room for the card anymore.

~

I love drawing cards as much as… well, probably a lot more than the next guy, actually. However, you don’t win the game by cantripping. Of course, a player can win plenty of games in which they cast bad Snapcasters and Brainstorms simply by virtue of how powerful these cards are.

They’ll win a lot more by casting them well, though.

-Ryan Overturf

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