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Insider: Looking Forward With Spoilers

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As of today, nearly the entire set of Return to Ravnica has been spoiled. No more guesswork, we now have all the tools we need to prepare for this season. As I discussed last week, I don’t suggest buying into sealed product of Return to Ravnica in large quantities unless you have a reliable and rapid outlet for your cards upon release. Separately, it’s now old news that Innistrad lands are a good pickup, so where can we go from here?

With the rotation of a big chunk of the U/W Delver pieces, many feel this deck simply won’t survive rotation, and I agree. Without the ability to Mana Leak a Day of Judgement on Turn 4, there’s nothing protecting the 3/2 insect from being swatted from the air. Even if Delver decks evolve to play Izzet Charm or some other countermagic, Supreme Verdict is simply too much for an aggro-control deck to fight through. This has a lot of impacts on what decks can exist now that aggro-control isn’t around.

The Return of Control

Control decks haven’t seen a ton of action in the last year. A few have had their moments in the limelight like U/B Drownyard, Solar Flare, and U/W Pristine Control. Traditional control decks like these were good in their own particular moment when Delver wasn’t as popular. Delvers ability to present a threat and protect it from removal for turns in a row squashed these decks from competition. We will now see some truly powerful control decks appear, most likely including Supreme Verdict and/or Terminus as sweepers.

The presence of Zombies means Terminus will be the trump sweeper for that matchup while Supreme Verdict will clean up all the other creature decks and buy a small amount of time against Zombies. The sweeper I expect to see less and less play? Bonfire of the Damned. The Mythic has been poised around $40 for quite some time now, and I expect it to finally come back to earth. $20-25 is a much more comfortable price for a card that is only played in one or two decks. The only decks that will realistically play this card are creature based aggressive or midrange decks that need to punch through an army of blockers. These decks are going to have a much harder time fighting through dedicated control decks, and Bonfire simply doesn’t do enough there.

If you are the control pilot, a reliable sweeper is more important than the one-sided nature or the damage to the face. I’d expect to see Blasphemous Act in a control build before Bonfire of the Damned. While I don’t expect its value to fall completely flat, I could see it being cut in half, which is enough for me to want to dump and rebuy around $20 in a month or two. If the mana is as easy as it appears it will be we may see a four or five color control deck featuring all the most powerful cards in the format. My bet is that Chromatic Lantern will appear in these decks, providing both ramp and fixing to impose their will on creature decks. I envision an EoT Cyclonic Rift as a sweet way to set up an endgame.

Red Deck Wins

It’s extremely uncommon for control decks to thrive just after rotation. Usually the reason for this is there is no shortage of aggressive creatures but there’s a limited amount of good answer cards. It appears this trend has changed, and that Control may find a presence. While a B/G Zombie deck is likely to exist, I always like to reconsider Red Deck Wins when it comes to this time of year, because as people are experimenting with new brews, Red Deck Wins punishes those who stumble.

That being said, I like picking up on Stromkirk Noble while he’s under $2 most places. This deck would likely also feature the new Red two-drop Ash Zealot. As an aggresive threat whose ability will also do extra damage from time to time it could slot right into this archetype. I also expect Flames of the Firebrand to be an inclusion in this deck. With the rotation of Arc Trail, this card is the most obvious replacement, and does a good job of what it’s asked. Flames of the Firebrand can be found easily under $1/set and I’m expecting that price to at least double if not triple. As an uncommon it could easily garner $1 per card, and I’m digging deep into these.

Graveyard Hate

They sure did print a ton of Graveyard hate! The card I’m most interested in is Rest in Peace. For 2 mana you nuke all graveyards and put a Leyline of the Void on all players. I expect this card to see play in all formats, especially Commander. As far as graveyard hate goes, this card is fairly complete and puts together two different hate abilities that are often both played on separate cards. While it’s already pre-selling at $4, I expect this to come down a bit, and gradually come back up over the distant future. As we see the price dip, let’s be prepared to buy in on this one. The quantity of graveyard hate has me less excited about the Jarad's Orders card we saw spoiled last week, as tutoring cards to your bin is only a solid Game 1 strategy given so much solid hate is available.

Curious Enchantments

I’m a sucker for enchantments that have powerful effects that can only be unlocked by crafty deck construction, and two have been spoiled that are worth considering. Mana Bloom is an interesting card that allows you to store up your mana from one turn to trickle into your future turns. It also bounces back to your hand if there are no counters on it allowing you to reload it.

It’s a very slow and clunky effect, but I don't know if an Enchantress deck in Legacy could make use of this. At worst it comes down for 1 and bounces the next turn allowing you to keep playing it every turn. If you’ve got some Enchantresses in play, its a engine on its own. While it pre-orders at only $1.25, I haven’t seen any creative ideas that warrant this being more than a bulk rare.

The other one is Search the City. While the end result of an extra turn is enticing, there’s quite a bit of work involved to get there. It can be similar to a Tome in the sense you could get a card per turn into your hand but its pretty conditional; however, if there’s a way to abuse this, extra turns get out of hand quickly. I’ve been fiddling around with creative ways to make this card work.

What other archetypes are supported? Is there any Innistrad Block cards that may see some sharp changes as a result? This is the type of thought process that puts you ahead of the pack when rotation comes.

Good Luck, High Five! Episode 3: The Sound of One Soul Snapping

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"Good Luck, High Five!" is back with another hilarious and insightful podcast!


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(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Show Notes:

Standard Decklists

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Wisest Wizard Rules

Going Rogue and Gaming Expected Behavior

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Two weeks ago I expressed my beliefs about why going rogue in Legacy doesn’t really pan out, but I feel like in that sense Legacy is sort of an anomaly. I still support everything that I wrote and have yet to encounter sufficiently convincing counterpoints, but I think that it’s important for me to express my thoughts on the value of rogue strategies in other formats.

Of course, I should preface this by stating that I am by no means advocating playing something different just for the sake of being different. The other day on MTGO I was grinding a Mono-Red Trading Post brew in the two-man queues and ended up playing a match against a GW Humans deck. During the match my opponent called me out for playing a deck that was just worse than Black Market, to which I posited that he was playing a worse version of literally any other GWx deck conceivable. He replied with the all-too-popular “at least I’m not playing Delver” and took his loss.

Just playing something that nobody else is playing doesn’t give you any real edge. While I had never played against his deck before, it was easy to discern that it was just a conglomeration of “good” humans. The removal that is good against the Pod decks is going to work just as well on Champion of the Parish as it is on Restoration Angel. Not to mention that his deck had no means of taking over a game like a Birthing Pod engine of its own…

If you’re going to go rogue and succeed, then you have to put a little more thought into the process than “I hate netdecks”. Successful rogue strategies stem from creativity and strategic planning, not disdain.

When attempting to build a new deck the most important rule that must be followed is this:

Don’t Build Something That Loses to the Same Hate That Already Exists in the Format at Large

This might have not been the only problem with the GW Humans deck discussed above, but it sure is a big one. Sure, playing a Champion of the Parish into Mayor of Avabruck might be something that brings you great joy, but don’t even act a little surprised with both of these mans are Gut Shoted and your Hero of Bladehold gets Vapor Snaged until you die.

This was something that was rather challenging when I was building Mono-Blue Trading Post, as there were already Delver Sideboards packing Stony Silence and Ancient Grudge for decks like Naya Pod.

The solution that I came up with was building a sideboard/maindeck that allowed me to board out all of my artifacts that were weak to these cards (Pristine Talisman and Trading Post) for spells that embarrassed them, such as Consecrated Sphinx. While employing a semi-transformational sideboard is hardly an original idea of mine, it’s a tool that I feel that much of the community at large isn’t taking as much advantage of as they could.

By taking advantage of assumptions that your opponent will likely make about your deck, you can steal a lot of games that you probably couldn’t win without gaming their expected behavior.

My favorite sideboard that I’ve ever played was that of the Grixis control deck with which I qualified for PT Nagoya. It may not look like much, but I’d like to believe that those four sideboard Mana Leaks are a thing of beauty.

Before I get into that, here’s a little backstory.

This sideboard stemmed from something that I discovered the year before when I lost on the bubble of a different Extended PTQ playing a UW Stoneforge Mystic deck (long before it was ever cool in Standard, mind you). I don’t remember the exact list I had, but these are the cards that I remember playing:

Yeah, my deck was sweet. It was largely a MonoWhite Martyr deck splashing blue for a backdoor combo, Celestial Colonnade beats and Vendilion Clique. Of course, having not seen my list, my opponents consistently assumed that the blue was much more relevant than this. Namely, they respected the Mana Leaks that weren’t in my 75.

When most players see a deck playing in a controlling manner and generating blue mana, they almost immediately assume that their opponent is playing some manner of counterspell. When the most popular counterspell available is conditional on them not paying more mana, they’ll often wait until they can pay for their spell to resolve, and if you never had that counter in the first place then you just earned yourself a free ticket to the late game where your deck is presumably stronger than theirs.

Having a lot of instant speed action really helped reinforce the Mana Leak bluff, and this is something that sort of carried over into my Grixis list. With a dozen maindeck instant removal spells, I would very often be leaving up Mana Leak mana. The combination of opponents playing around potential Leaks and the grip of removal coupled to make my Jaces very strong. And then game two, after I had presumably shown them a large portion of my deck, I was able to board in Mana Leaks that they had never seen in game one and sometimes stopped respecting for game two.

While the time for this exact bluff has probably passed, I think that the general idea is something that is very valuable and I already see potential for a similar sort of advantage being made available in the coming Modern season with the help of a new card.

Spoiler Alert

I don’t think that it’s any secret that Abrupt Decay is going to be seeing a lot of play across multiple formats, but I do think that there is a small edge that can be gained in the beginning of Modern season simply by virtue of playing this card.

Personally I think that this card is a straight replacement in Jund for Maelstrom Pulse. It hits most of the same things, it’s uncounterable, costs one fewer mana and it’s an instant. It’s a hell of a lot better against Deceiver Exarch, at the very least.

More importantly, most opponents are going to respect Maelstrom Pulse by not committing multiple copies of their permanents. If you’re not playing the card, then you gain some tempo and save yourself a mana in the deal. You technically gain five mana in situations where your opponent plays something that you destroy at the end of their turn and you have a follow up sorcery-speed play on your next turn.

Sure, this edge might be minor, and it probably goes away after a couple weeks of Modern season if this replacement is widely adopted. But it’s just another thought to get the wheels turning.

~

In other news, Mike Hawthorne and I started recording a podcast for this very site two weeks ago! It’s called “Good Luck, High Five!” and it has been a great deal of fun to work on thus far. We’re really looking for as much feedback at this early stage in the process as possible so check it out and let us know what you think!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

The Worst Preconstructed Decks of Innistrad Block

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To night, day. To up, down. And to vanilla, chocolate. The things of the world have their opposites, so why should the precon decks of Innistrad block be any exception?

Last time we took a look at the top five, the very picks of the litter - those decks that for one reason or another inspired and impressed. As an added bonus, we even looked at the top two Event Decks that emerged from the block. This time around, however, we're headed down... down, down, to the bottom of the barrel. Opposites, right?

It's a fact of any rating system that not everything can be equal - why else have a rating system? And if there are winners, by definition there must also be losers. That isn't to say that those on the bottom end of the scale are terrible - if your top-end is "here's a free hundred-dollar bill" and your bottom is "here, have a fifty," that's still not a bad deal.

But no, no such relativistic positions will save us here - some of the decks we're about to spotlight aren't the marginally worst of a fantastic bunch... no, they're just, well... born bad.

If that's indeed the case, then it begs the question... what makes a deck bad? Let's have a look at our finalists and find out...

5. Carnival of Blood (Innistrad)

One interesting thing about the ratings we give the decks on Ertai's Lament is to see how they fall in the spectrum of the block. In this case, they quite literally selected themselves - five decks scored less than 4.00 out of 5. Coming in just under that mark is Carnival of Blood.

When the decks of Innistrad released, it was a lot of fun to tear into the first real tribal offerings in some time. Not every tribe was represented, of course - we'd never see a Werewolves deck for a number of reasons throughout the life of the block - but the main ones sooner or later got their turn in the spotlight.

In addition to Humans and Spirits, Innistrad gave us a Vampire-themed offering, Carnival of Blood. In a typical build, a creature-focused swarm deck lives and dies on its ability to go either around or through what opposes it, draining an opponent's life total dry. If the red zone becomes clogged and congested, however, these decks tend to stall out and then die as the opponent sets their game in motion.

Carnival of Blood tried both approaches feebly. It offered you a whiff of evasion with cards like Cobbled Wings and Gruesome Deformity. You got a sprinkle of removal and burn. But overall, this Red and Black deck couldn't deliver a single piece of targeted killpower outwith a singleton Fireball.

Instead, despite the set having several pieces of toned-down removal, you had to make do with two [card Tribute to Hunger]Tributes to Hunger[/card]. However thematic the selection, the Vampires - and by extension, the deck's pilot - deserved better.

4. Swift Justice (Dark Ascension)

When we assessed the deck, we concluded that the deck's name was "cruel, cruel irony" given that the deck wanted to behave like an aggressive Boros swarm decks with your average creature having a converted mana cost of three. If that was the only problem, we might well have soldiered on, but the deck had a few other things working against it.

First was the creatures' fragility. If you're paying that much for your beaters, you have a right to expect a bit of durability. Instead we're treated to a host of 1-toughness creatures that are begging to be traded out with the 1/1 Spirit tokens that are crawling all over the environment. Unless your name is Ashmouth Hound, that's a serious problem.

Just like the Vampires, Swift Justice struggled with removal. We have the White-feeling Burning Oil, which is highly conditional and can't tough nettling utility creatures that don't risk their necks in the red zone. For those, there was a pair of [card Wrack with Madness]Wrack with Madnesses[/card], but at four mana it was a bit of an ask for a sorcery-speed spell.

It's all well and good if you want to have an environment that promotes creatures smashing into each other rather than surgical removal through spells. But if that's the case, how far did they expect you to get with your 1-toughness dorks and a few fat angels?

3. Solitary Fiends (Avacyn Restored)

The best Intro Packs are often those that highlight and support a particular theme or mechanic of the set they are released with. A look at the top five shows this clearly to be the case, with decks like Eldritch Onslaught (flashback) and Dark Sacrifice (human sacrifice) making their way onto the list.

Of course, the unspoken assumption is that the mechanic or theme being highlighted is worthy of being called out. We've seen a number of mechanics come and go that weren't able to support a deck on their own, like imprint from Scars of Mirrodin, and knowing when to build a deck and when to pass is the very soul of wisdom.

Unfortunately, the thematic "bad guys are isolated" theme of Avacyn Restored might have played well in the flavour, but it didn't seem to translate all that well in practice. Aside from getting big guys more cheaply (Fettergeist) or a rare splashy effect (Lone Revenant), there really wasn't enough payoff for having to hamstring yourself on the battlefield. If you were lucky, you might find one of the only three support cards - singletons all - that rewarded the strategy (Homicidal Seclusion, Demonic Rising, Predator's Gambit).

One of the common charges leveled against exalted, the Bant mechanic from 2008's Shards of Alara that has made a triumphant return in Magic 2013, is that if your opponent manages to bounce or kill your lone attacker, you've essentially just [card Fog]Fogged[/card] yourself and handed over a turn. This is not unfair, but, on the upside, even the least of your creatures can become truly massive if you've found enough exalted support.

Therein lies the crucial difference. If your opponent solves your exalted attacker, you just attack with a different creature next turn. You might have "lost" a turn of offense, but if so you've lost just the one.

With Solitary Fiends, you don't have any backup support. If you're playing the deck as it was intended, that creature you just lost was your only one, and now you'll lose a second turn while you wait for your replacement's summoning sickness to wear off. Here's another point to consider: all those exalted guys just sitting around pumping up your champion? They can block, too.

Trying to mount a successful defense with Solitary Fiends is on par with trying to pluralize "Lone Ranger."

2. Slaughterhouse (Avacyn Restored)

This one had promise, oh did it have promise! Some of the best Theme Decks to have seen print are those that succeed at crafting an intricate sacrifice engine. Mirrodin's Sacrificial Bam and Coldsnap's Beyond the Grave are two that are held up as paragons of the archetype, and it was hoped that Slaughterhouse would do for Humans what the others did for artifacts and Insidious Bookworms (sorry, Humans).

Alas, it was not to be. If those other decks were finely-tuned chrome engines, Slaughterhouse was one held together with plastic tubing, duct tape and good intentions. Although it has moments of glory, mainly involving early deployment of [card Demonic Taskmaster]Demonic Taskmasters[/card] or the Demonlord of Ashmouth, the rest of the deck seems out of tune.

Too much of the deck seems to be fighting over too few sacrificial resources, though [card Butcher Ghoul]Butcher Ghouls[/card] and the [card Reassembling Skeleton]Reassembling Skeletons[/card] were a nice touch (a third would have gone a long way). Other options, like the Maalfeld Twins, are more clever than they are effective, and, given the mana cost pricetag, a luxury the deck can scarcely afford.

Indeed, that's another of the deck's ails - too many expensive things that don't directly move the deck forward. Raging Poltergeist. Grave Exchange. Even the ones that do synergise with the deck, like the aforementioned Maalfeld Twins and Gang of Devils, still clog up your hand and mana curve.

The deck could stand to be a few shades leaner, and the tools are there to polish it up quite a bit, but as we concluded in our initial review, "we have to take the decks as they are rather than how we wish them to be."

1. Deathly Dominion (Innistrad)

Is there something to the decks of the first set that make them particularly vulnerable to charting high on the list of infamy? In our previous installment, Scars of Mirrodin's Deadspread took top (dis)honours, and while a particularly clunky execution of totem auras snuck Rise of the Eldrazi to the top of Zendikar block, Zendikar itself took place and show.

To be fair, there's a limit to ambition in those first sets that's lessened as the year goes on. In the beginning, the available card pool is at its narrowest. Not only that, but we've only just seen the new themes and mechanics begin to be developed; often, they grow as the set goes on. Sadly, the bell tolled here for morbid, and it was a very quick and undignified burial.

For one thing, the Innistrad environment tended to put less emphasis on removal that we've seen in blocks like Scars of Mirrodin or Zendikar. This is fine- except the entire raison d'etre for the morbid mechanic is things dying. Your robust removal suite? A Prey Upon, a Doom Blade and a couple of [card Dead Weight]Dead Weights[/card] - that doesn't exactly scream reliability. It's especially difficult when some of your morbid creatures are so expensive, such as the Hollowhenge Scavenger and the Morkrut Banshee, and you have to add the costs of the removal spell and the creature.

That being the case, you'd expect the deck then to pack in a solid sacrifice suite, giving you 'free' ways to trigger your own central mechanic, but the sacrifice suite is wildly inconsistent. Your self-sacrificer, Brain Weevil, costs four mana, and there's not much else that really offsets the inherent card disadvantage of that path.

Gaining life with the Disciple of Griselbrand? Equipping a mediocre artifact in the Demonmail Hauberk? This was a deck that needed the fodder-generating power of the Jade Mage, who was in legal rotation at the time. Instead, we ended up with a deck we compared to Scars of Mirrodin's Deadpsread - a cool concept sadly let down by its execution and lack of development.

Sadly, although we're treated to a score or so of new Intro Packs each year, they can't all be winners. Some, like this block's winner, are good ideas with a disappointing execution. Others seem to have been troubled right from the start. Still, credit to Dark Ascension, which had the least number of entries on the list!

~

Last time we added a new bonus feature to our look at the 'best of,' picking the top two Event Decks. In the interests of opposites, our theme from the outset of the piece, here are the two that occupy the bottom two rungs for Innistrad block.

2. Deathfed (Innistrad)

Let me start by saying that Deathfed isn't a 'bad' deck, but someone's got to be at the bottom of the list. In another world, perhaps, the deck sits somewhere in the middle, but the block had some standout performances with this product line. In a nutshell, Deathfed is a self-mill deck that looks to exploit the steady stream of cards tumbling into your graveyard with graveyard-dependent beaters like Splinterfright and the Boneyard Wurm. This is a solid enough objective, given the inclusion of playsets of Forbidden Alchemy and Armored Skaab. Indeed, these latter two part of the core of the recent Magic 2013 Event Deck Sweet Revenge, so clearly something's working there.

The problem with Deathfed was that it played out in a very pedestrian manner. You spend the early part of the game stalling and sifting and sifting and stalling, and for what? A fat Boneyard Wurm your opponent can chump until the end of days? A Bonehoard? The Splinterfright, at least, has that all-important trample, but it's just one card. Even the swarm of Spiders you could make with Spider Spawning isn't all that menacing when it costs a full seven mana- including one of your splash colour- to flash back.

The final nail in the coffin for Deathfed came a set later when it was reproduced in Intro Pack form for Dark Ascension's Grave Power. Grave Power had the very same strategy and even crossed over on a tactical level (see: Boneyard Wurm, Armored Skaab, Splinterfright, et al), but with some other splashier, more engaging cards like Ghoultree and- yes- Chasm Drake, it accomplished what Deathfed could not: fun.

1. Gleeful Flames (Dark Ascension)

It's hard to feel good about poor ol' Deathfed appearing here, since it actually rated fairly well but suffered from the quality of its peers. The same cannot be said for Gleeful Flames, which ranked well below.

Gleeful Flames is as good an example of a 'glass cannon deck' as you're likely to find. Loaded with four-ofs, it has a laudable consistency. But much like a Belcher deck, you have to have the right set-up from the start or it can all go pear-shaped very quickly. The creatures you're fielding are nearly all 1/1's, and if you can't find something to do with them - and soon - your odds of victory rapidly plummet as your opponent either starts deploying larger and larger threats or simply has more time to enact their game plan.

The deck also suffers from some questionable decisions. A Curse of Stalked Prey seems wildly optimistic, and it was seldom something we were happy to draw in playtesting, while a trio of [card Infiltration Lens]Infiltration Lenses[/card] seemed a shade too cute for its own good. Swapping the four out for even more burn would have helped even out the deck a bit. Our final word on the deck summed it up rather well: "there are players who don’t mind taking their lumps if it means that they get to shine brightly every now and again, and this deck is right in their bailiwick. For everyone else, we’d recommend giving it a pass."

~

Thanks again for joining me today in a walk down the halls of infamy. We review a ton of decks, and while we always appreciate the hard work and effort that goes into making them, sometimes a child really is just ugly. The joy from the best of the bunch are more than enough to offset whatever misery these un-magnificent seven have offered us, and will keep us playing Innistrad block long after the set's day has passed.

Jay Kirkman

@ErtaisLament

www.ertaislament.com

Jason’s Archives: Apocalypto, Escape from L.A. & SCG Lincoln

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Greetings, Speculators!

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

Let's face it, not everyone felt like going to Costa Rica for a Grand Prix this weekend. I didn't even feel like driving to Ohio for a PTQ, so Costa Rica was out of the question. Some west-coasters elected to go to the City of Angels this weekend to play in the SCG Open there. If you were there, you were privy to a controversy that had the twitterverse abuzz with frenzied activity for hours on Sunday night. Someone had played an illegal deck on camera and the judges just sat by and watched.

I'd Be Remiss If I Didn't Call That Sentence Sensationalist Journalism

Maybe that last sentence was sensationalist, but it was not inaccurate. It's called a hook. I'm told members of the industry use it to attract readers to the body of their work. The fact of the matter is that someone played a deck which, in the current rules enforcement framework, is not strictly legal.

Jeff Liu ran a deck in L.A. that some of you are familiar with, called "Four Horseman," so-named because... I have no idea. As far as names go, it sounds cool but doesn't tell you anything about the deck. In a lot of ways, it's the perfect deck name.

Four Horseman gets down by milling the bejesus out of itself using Mesmeric Orb and infinite untaps from Basalt Monolith. Then it gets a Blasting Station online (by saccing Narcomoebas to Dread Return Sharuum the Hegemon) and throws every available Narcomoeba at the opponent. When it runs out of them, it mills some more until it hits [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] to shuffle the any illusions back into the library and continue the fun.

Guess what happens each time you start the combo and hit an Emrakul before binning Dread Return? That's right, chief. You ain't goin nowhere.

Thanks for comin' out!

So What Exactly Is Illegal Here?

So the combo can randomly screw you a bit. What's the issue? Well, let's think about it. If the opponent has no way to disrupt the combo, you keep going, right? And even though there is no way to "whiff" exactly with the mill engine in place, your opponent can still demand that you demonstrate the ability to go off with the combo, which can take a long time if [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] keeps popping up early. This is a problem for several reasons.

First of all, you can't ask your opponent to agree to a shortcut. If it were a self-sustaining combo between three pieces you already had out, that would be one thing. But you have to be certain that agreeing to a shortcut would result in a particular game state. This is per rule MTR 4.2 regarding shortcuts.

Since you can't guarantee you'll get [card Sharuum, the Hegemon]Sharuum[/card], Blasting Station and Dread Return into the yard with three Narcomoebas in play before hitting an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card], you can't ask the opponent to shuffle up for game two. Now this is speaking strictly within the framework of the rules, and the opponent could concede once they understand the inevitability of the combo. However, you can't rely on that and hope to go all day without anyone asking you to demonstrate it.

Another issue is not knowing how many times you will need to mill yourself (and shuffle everything back in when you hit an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card]) in order to get Dread Return, [card Sharuum, the Hegemon]Sharuum[/card] and Blasting Station into the yard with an empty stack. Since you can't say how many times you will need to execute this loop before you get the combo, it's considered prima facie slow play.

To quote IPG-4.3 regarding Slow Play --

It is also slow play if a player continues to execute a loop without being able to provide an exact number of iterations and the expected resulting game state.

A dishonest player could execute more loops than necessary in order to run out the clock. If you take 40 minutes to execute the combo game one, you are 5-10 minutes from victory in the match, and by the way you're allowed time to resolve each mulligan. Since it is impossible to predict (or enforce) how many loops will be necessary to get the rest of the combo on the board, it's an opportunity for slow play and makes the deck strictly illegal.

Now a judge can rule that the player be allowed to continue to compete in the event, which is what happened in L.A. Some of the twitterverse was not happy about it.

All of this goes to show a savvy player like Jeff can come up with ways to change the game state after a failure to go off in order to skirt the rule about an interation of the combo not having an effect on the game state and therefore resulting in a slow play penalty. Said Jeff,

There were a lot of goofy things I did to avoid making it an identical game state at various times throughout the day. Sometimes it was resolving a Narc, sometimes it was declaring combat, sometimes it was Cabal Therapying to change the number of creatures in play. Sometimes it was just casting an extra Ponder for whatever reason.

It is also notable that I did not receive a single warning the entire day, despite having three judges come by at various points, and all of my matches finished with plenty of time remaining in the round. Also, I only played the Orb/Monolith combo for game ones basically.

That last sentence alludes to the deck's ability to board into Painter's Stone and/or Show and Emrakul for games two and three.

In this writer's opinion, multiple judges clearing a deck/player means that the spirit of the rules were enforced, if not the letter. The combo wasn't used by Jeff in an unsportsmanlike manner and he avoided warnings due to his careful play and earnest reliance on winning with the combo rather than running down the clock. What the judges allowed was ultimately less disruptive than ejecting a player for breaking a finicky rule that was never intended to prevent a deck from being viable, but rather to discourage a style of play.

That said, I would not recommend playing this deck at an event where judges may rule against you to protect the integrity of the event. A slow play infraction is not only a bad way to lose, it's something that will follow you for the rest of your career.

City of Traitors Angels

As someone who once built a Knight of the Reliquary-Steward of Valeron-Knight Exemplar deck to test for a GP in Columbus so I could play a deck called "Knights of Columbus,"

Good name. Good....name.

I was sort of hoping someone would make an angel-themed deck to play at the SCG Open in LA. Angel of Glory's Rise is a card right now (don't tell the people who have been bulking them out to me all week) and Restoration Angel will be a card until it rotates. No one obliged me. Let's see what they did jam in the City of Angels instead.

Top 32 LA Standard Lists

Delver everywhere. Hooray.

The winning list piloted by Keyan Jafari jammed [card Talrand, Sky Summoner]Talrand[/card] which is more fun than if he hadn't, I suppose. Really, I'm just ready for this Standard season to be over.

Samuel Pardee's U/W Midrange list was the only interesting deck in the entire Top 32. It's good to see someone still remembers how unfair Consecrated Sphinx is. Expect to see Drogskol Reaver occupy that slot if we don't get anything promising from Azorius. So far the Sphinx-esque stuff they have showed me seems strictly worse than a [card Baneslayer Angel]Baneslayer[/card] that draws cards. Four Blade Splicer seems like the right number here, and a lot of phyrexian mana removal rounds out an interesting list.

Even the Wolf Run Blue deck jammed four copies of [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card]. I guess players are sticking with what they know (and already have built) with the season winding down. Blerg.

The Classic may have been more interesting.

Richmond Is Where They Filmed Portions of the New Lincoln Biopic

Richmond Classic Standard Top 16

More of the same. Delver won here too, but G/W Midrange was hot on its heels. Players are getting their kicks with Pod and phyrexian mana while they still can. A lot of pod decks in the Top 16 here, which is good to see. Birthing Pod is a fun card and we're going to miss it. Not many Delver decks, but it's still a bummer that a Delver deck won.

Not much you haven't seen here so we can probably just move to Legacy.

L.A. Legacy Top 32

U/W Miracle Control is proving to be a real deck. I got quite the primer on this deck during a sit-down with early adopter Kenta Hiroki. I learned that this deck requires incredibly tight play, but if you can manage it it has everything you need to get there.

The winner was Michael Hetrick who showed up loaded for bear with a sideboard of thirteen unique cards. It's still confusing to see Moat over Humility but a format with more Maverick and Merfolk is less bothered by Humility than it is Moat, I guess. Still, Griselbrand and [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] laugh at Moat and weep at Humility. Maybe the Moat in the winning sideboard and the zero copies of Sneak and Tell in the Top 32 say everything that needs to be said about the format.

Where's our Academy Rector deck? Finance pundits have been crying "BUY!" on this card since it was $12 weeks ago. It hit the $30 peak that was predicted despite materializing an astonishing zero times in a Top 32 since then. Who is playing this card? Where are they playing it? Until this deck starts winning stuff, maybe its $30 price tag isn't justified. I'd like to see a deck running this strategy crack the Top 32, but I am still waiting.

You know what else costs $30? Patrick Sullivan's entire deck. Burning his way to third place, Sully (as he likes to be called) was in classic form, casting burn spells at his opponent's face and laughing as they tried to extinguish the flames on their backs.

Burn gets there. It punishes bad draws and greedy mana bases. It punishes unfamiliarity with your own deck with straightforward lines of play. It is probably the hardest deck to master the way Patrick Sullivan has. It's really easy to deal 16 damage with a given hand in a burn deck. Unfortunately, you have to deal more than that, typically, and it's not always easy to see the best line of play until you've already run out of gas. I am a big fan of burn and I congratulate Sully on his success.

Six different decks in the Top 8 is encouraging to say the least. Legacy continues to be a dynamic format, and I'm looking forward to see how cards like Abrupt Decay affect the meta. I'm guessing Counterbalance's days are numbered. Legacy continues to surprise, with decks like "Four Horsemen" randomly popping out of the woodwork and perennial favorites like Goblins continuing to muster competitive showings.

So Long for Now

Again, check out the RtR spoiler page and leave me some feedback. We want to know if that's something you all like and want us to do with future sets.

Until next week, may all of your loops result in a fundamental change to the game state.

Insider: A Set Review of Return to Ravnica, Two Weeks Early

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I clicked over to MTGSalvation this morning to see what the three new spoiled cards were. Lo and behold, I saw nearly two hundred more than I had expected to be spoiled. Frankly, this is lame. If you're going to be the biggest vandal in Magic and bust open booster boxes to spoil a set, at least sign your work. Sure, there's a lot of chaff that has to go into every set, things for Limited that are not going to excite anyone during spoiler season. Two weeks early, though, and we know about 98% of the set. I feel for the writers who now have to pretend that what they're announcing isn't known to everyone who Googles RTR (the spoiler is the first result!). Anyway, we have a set to review. I'm going to give you my financial takes on the set, and I won't be alone. This week, you will read many set reviews and I suggest that you give each one some scrutiny. I'm reviewing mainly with an eye toward Eternal magic, which is my strength. Typically, there isn't much in a new set for Eternal formats, so I'll amuse you and me both with commentary on other cards. There are two kinds of financial reviewers; ones that have the guts to use dollar signs and hold themselves accountable, and everyone else. I'm striving to be the former, but with things like Eternal-specific foils, it's mainly a guess. Many of these cards are going to be worthless in non-foil and worth-something in foil (think Spell Pierce and Lodestone Golem). Let's take a look.

 

Angel of Serenity

4www
Creature - Angel Mythic Rare
Flying
When Angel of Serenity enters the battlefield, you may exile up to three other target creatures from the battlefield and/or creature cards from graveyards.
When Angel of Serenity leaves the battlefield, return the exiled cards to their owners' hands.
Illus. Aleksi Briclot #1/274 5/6

 

We have seen Angel of Serenity start out at $5, then $7, and now $10. I don't think she's done climbing. Patrick Chapin gushed about the card in his article this week, spending thousands of words on the Angel and her infinite interactions. Patrick knows what he's talking about and he especially knows tap-out threats. This is the sort of card that completely swings a game and wins you games you had no business winning. You're getting beat by four monsters and then she comes down, eats three and holds off the fourth. Or she rebuys your Restoration Angel and Snapcaster Mage when she dies. Or she shuts down all of the defenders that an opponent has and cruises in. $10 is not her upper limit. I think this card will hit $15 on pretty good odds.

Eternally speaking, she's not good enough in older formats, but she might shine in Modern. Here's my thinking: UW Tron loves this kind of card, the big, rewarding monster. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite is the typical reanimation target and that kills a whole lot of stuff. On the other hand, it does not stop Tarmogoyfs and a few other really annoying problems. I can see her coming out in a Gifts deck, where hardcasting is reasonable, or being reanimated the old-fashioned way. She's also a fine Birthing Pod target if you want to get up to seven mana.

 

Rest in Peace

1w
Enchantment Rare
When Rest in Peace enters the battlefield, exile all cards from all graveyards.
If a card or token would be put into a graveyard from anywhere, exile it instead.

Everything seems geared toward hating the graveyard these days and this is one of the more spectacularly-hosing varieties. It's not going to see much Standard play because it doesn't cantrip like Ground Seal, but it can see some profound Eternal play. Vintage decks can easily support five colors, often dipping into White for Swords to Plowshares. This, like Leyline of the Void, can make an infinite combination with Helm of Obedience. Since the Helm never sees a monster hit the graveyard, it mills an opponent's deck if all you do is pay x=1. As this fact becomes more public, expect people to try more Helm decks. In Legacy, using Rest in Peace and the Tax-Rack engine to set up Helm is a natural course and I expect people to give it a try.

Helm has dropped from $8 to about $3 these days. Pick some up if you feel lucky.

Rest in Peace demands a lot from a Vintage deckbuilder; it won't do a thing versus Workshops, but it crushes Dredge and can stop Blue decks pretty well. Keep an eye on foils of these; the regular versions are selling for $2, which will go down, but Vintage players could show some love for this in foil form.

 

Sphere of Safety

4w
Enchantment Uncommon
Creatures can't attack you or a planeswalker you control unless their controller pays {X} for each of those creatures, where X is the number of enchantments you control.
Illus. Slawomir Maniak

 

This is big; really big. Moat is stupid expensive at this point and the most prolific user of Moat is Enchantress. This is a good counterpart to Moat and will compete for slots. I don't think Enduring Ideal is a worthwhile Modern deck, but this can have a home in that, too. This is an uncommon, which means that the regular version won't be worth a thing. Keep an eye on foils, though; Enchantress players love to foil out their decks. You need look no further than Sterling Grove to see a good example of how you can profit from this.

 

Cyclonic Rift

1u
Instant Rare
Return target nonland permanent you don't control to its owner's hand.
Overload 6{U} (You may cast this spell for its overload cost. If you do, change its text by replacing all instances of "target" with "each".)
The Izzet specialize in unnatural disaster.

Now what makes Cyclonic Rift interesting is the instant speed. If this were a sorcery, we simply would not look at it. I think Overload is going to make for great Control decks in Standard, but the Rift also has some nice applications for Eternal formats. Seven mana is not a big challenge to get to with Mana Crypt and Tolarian Academy and the end result is a big deal. Hurkyl's Recall is better against Workshops, but this is maindeckable bounce. I cannot accurately say what this is going to do in Standard. but again, the foil market in Vintage can add a boost to this. I really feel like Cyclonic Rift is going to be a big deal in Standard, but it has to compete with Unsummon. We'll see.

 

Jace, Architect of Thought

2uu
Planeswalker - Jace Mythic Rare
+1 : Until your next turn, whenever a creature an opponent controls attacks, it gets -1/-0 until end of turn.
-2 : Reveal the top three cards of your library. An opponent separates them into two piles. Put one pile into your hand and the other on the bottom of your library in any order.
-8 : For each player, search that player's library for a nonland card and exile it, then that player shuffles his or her library. You may cast those cards without paying their mana costs.
Illus. Jaime Jones #44/274 4

 

Though a Standard standout, I see no home for this guy in Eternal. The older formats have the better Jace and Modern has too many monsters dealing damage for this to survive.

 

Sphinx of the Chimes

4uu
Creature - Sphinx Rare
Flying
Discard two nonland cards with the same name: Draw four cards.
Illus. Greg Staples #52/274 5/6

 

Sphinx is Dredge's best friend right now. I'm even considering it in Modern, if you can believe that, because discarding two like-named dredgers with Sphinx will probably let you mill your deck on the spot. The problem is that I don't know how you get this into play without Dread Return! In Legacy and Vintage, it's a different animal, since you have the reanimation spell. That said, I don't know if you have enough time in any Eternal format to set this up. I like it a lot and using Sphinx to mill your whole deck is pretty cool. I have a feeling that this is going to be regulated to casual decks using Squees and Punishing Fires, though. They're pre-selling for a quarter apiece, which is probably an accurate price.

 

Desecration Demon

2bb
Creature - Demon Rare
Flying
At the beginning of each combat, any opponent may sacrifice a creature. If a player does, tap Desecration Demon and put a +1/+1 counter on it.
Illus. Jason Chan #63/274 6/6

 

I was an early fan of the Demon and I still like it. I bring it up here because I think it has some good applications in Modern Jund. That deck loves efficient finishers and getting lots of value and the Demon is superb. Either it munches down a critter every turn, fulfilling all of those dreams of attrition, or it does a punishing pile of damage in the air. Jund is a popular deck and it often has problems sealing the game after stabilizing. I could see this demon coming in through the air to solve that issue.

 

Vandalblast

r
Sorcery Uncommon
Destroy target artifact you don't control.
Overload 4{R}

 

Can you believe that we ran all through black and most of Red before we hit another winner? With Eternal cards, that is often the case! There is a big barrier to entry because of the power level, but sometimes you get cards like this one that play into the very different dynamics of older formats. In both Vintage and Modern, Vandalblast is sure to be a staple. It kills the early Lodestone Golem in Vintage or stomps Affinity in Modern. I like this a lot as a sideboard card. Shattering Spree, now $4, is a go-to in both formats, as is Ancient Grudge. This is easier on the mana and while it lacks the speed of Grudge, it can comprehensively handle threats.

I tested a lot of Ancient Grudges in Modern against Affinity and I found that they just did not carry enough water for sideboards. The problem was that you would take out their Cranial Plating but then you could not touch the underlying Etched Champion, so you ended up dying to that and random beats. This resets the board quite nicely, even clearing out the Champs!

There is precedent for sweeper cards like this to rocket up in price over time. Foils of this are obviously a good grab, but bear in mind that Shattering Spree is probably worse than this most of the time and it's still got a good price tag.

 

Abrupt Decay

bg
Instant Rare
Abrupt Decay can't be countered by spells or abilities.Destroy target nonland permanent with converted mana cost 3 or less.
The Izzet quickly suspended their policy of lifetime guarantee.
Illus. Svetlin Velinov #141/274

 

I suppose the big question on this card is "where is the price going to settle down to?" Maelstrom Pulse is the next closest comparable card and it has been expensive throughout its life. Maelstrom Pulse was in a reasonably-loved set with Mythics, so it's fitting the same mold as Abrupt Decay. However, Maelstrom Pulse isn't an Instant and three mana is a gulf of difference over two in old formats. This can't kill Jace or Lodestone Golem, but it clears out Chalice of the Void, Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf and Counterbalance. That's a pretty good scorecard. I feel like this is the card that people dedicate decks to, much like Chris Pikula dedicated his Deadguy Ale deck to Vindicate and found a deck that could work around it. This is a monster of a card.

These are preselling for $15 right now and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you'll see that price or near to it for its Standard lifespan. This is dependent on there being a half-decent G/B/x deck that comes along, but it's not unreasonable that a Farseek deck runs one Overgrown Tomb to turn on its Decays.

 

Counterflux

uur
Instant Rare
Counterflux can't be countered by spells or abilities.
Counter target spell you don't control.
Overload 1{U}{U}{R}
Illus. Scott M. Fisher #153/274

 

Counterflux is going to be a dud all over. It has to compete with Cancel in Standard, which people hate playing to begin with. If it exiled a spell, it would be a big role-player, since it could counter all of the rares in RTR that are otherwise unstoppable. As it is, Counterflux does not add much to Last Word or Mindbreak Trap.

 

Detention Sphere

1wu
Enchantment Rare
When Detention Sphere enters the battlefield, you may exile target nonland permanent not named Detention Sphere and all other permanents with the same name as that permanent.
When Detention Sphere leaves the battlefield, return the exiled cards to the battlefield under their owner's control.
Illus. Kev Walker #155/274

 

There's this joke on MTGTheSource, a big Legacy forum, that makes "Awesome" a keyword. It means "this is blue so you can pitch it to Force of Will." Otherwise boring cards are Awesome for the fact that you can send them away to fire up the counter. Detention Sphere is getting a lot of Legacy attention because, like Thopter Foundry, this card has Awesome and it is a reasonable card for archetypes that used to hurt for this effect. Maybe you could not justify those Oblivion Rings in Delver or a UW Control deck, but this is a fine piece of tech because it's not going to be totally dead. It also comes down to kill zombie armies from Dredge and really screw up Elves and other swarm strategies. It's going to be a hot Standard card and I don't think Legacy is going to warp its price too much, but remember that Legacy players will likely want these.

 

Epic Experiment

xur
Sorcery Mythic Rare
Exile the top X cards of your library. For each instant or sorcery with converted mana cost X or less among them, you may cast that card without paying its mana cost. Then put all cards exiled this way that weren't cast into your graveyard.
Illus. Dan Scott #159/274

 

This otherwise-silly card is notable because it could be a great machine in UR Storm in Modern. UR Storm has to do this really impoverished mana-hungry race to 2RR and 10 storm to make two Grapeshots (or make Remand tricks) or try and fuel Pyromancer's Ascension and get somewhere with it. Epic Experiment is basically a card where hitting X=7 or more will just win the game. Storm runs enough cantrips that it can get greedy on lands and it has enough mana acceleration that this spell can pay for itself post-flip if nothing else. I also like that it's bonkers if you hit a Wheel of Fate and see seven new cards. Keep an eye on Wheel and Epic Experiment.

 

Rakdos Charm

br
Instant Uncommon
Choose one: exile all cards from target player's graveyard; or destroy target artifact; or each creature deals 1 damage to its controller.
"Let all feel joy in pain."
-Rakdos
Illus. Zoltan Boros #184/274

 

Rakdos Charm: reactions of puzzlement from Standard players, anger from Legacy players and love from Vintage players. Its two modes are basically "BR: screw up the one Vintage strategy or screw that other one up." It's very easy to run in Vintage and solves a lot of problems. This is going to be abysmal in Standard but a sure hit in foil form in Vintage. Scoop up copies and put them on the internet!

Sphinx's Revelation

xwuu
Instant Mythic Rare
You gain X life and draw X cards.
"Let the knowledge of absolute law inspire you to live a life of absolute order."
Illus. Slawomir Maniak #200/274

 

I am specifically watching U/W Tron with this. I have had enough times where I am out of gas and I need to both stay alive and see some juice. This solves both problems, but it's probably too expensive to cast if X is anything less than 3.

Supreme Verdict

1wwu
Sorcery Rare
Supreme Verdict can't be countered.Destroy all creatures.
Leonos had no second thoughts about the abolishment edict. He'd left skyrunes warning of the eviction, even though it was cloudy.
Illus. Sam Burley #201/274

 

If you needed more evidence that Merfolk is going to get out and stay out, look at this. Supreme Verdict has Awesome, which makes it great in Legacy. It's no stretch to run it in any deck that otherwise wants Wrath. This represents a long-term bearish position on Merfolk decks; unwind your positions on Cursecatchers if you still have them.

 

Treasured Find

bg
Sorcery Uncommon
Return target card from your graveyard to your hand. Exile Treasured Find.
Illus. Jason Chan

 

This is a Regrowth, which is restricted in Vintage. The power of Regrowth was that you can use it to get a lot more Ancestral Recalls or Black Lotuses. Treasured Find is going to see a bit of exploratory play in Vintage and I want to run them alongside Gushes. Getting access to five Regrowths with Gush is really, really twisted. The typical "get these in foil" line applies, especially because they are going to see some sure Commander love too.

Dryad Militant

gw
Creature - Dryad Soldier Uncommon
If an instant or sorcery would be put in a graveyard from anywhere, exile it instead.
"We will defend the worldsoul from Izzet 'progress' at any cost."
Illus. Terese Nielsen #214/274 2/1

 

I don't see these as the next coming of Kitchen Finks, but damn... these Militants are good. Currently selling for $1.25, I see these as underpriced and here's why. Every deckbuilder in Standard that starts with W or G and wants to win through combat damage is going to put "4 Dryad Militant" on the deck registration sheet and then have to talk themselves out of it. This is a "justify not having it" and not "justify playing these" kind of card.

 

Nivmagus Elemental

ur
Creature - Elemental Rare
Exile an instant or sorcery spell you control: Put two +1/+1 counters on Nivmagus Elemental.
When it escaped, the experimenters hesitated. It would cause untold havoc, yet they wished to see it in action.
Illus. Mike Bierek #219/274 1/2

 

I had not originally seen that this permanently pumps the Elemental. That changes things a bit. I see someone trading a junk spell in hand to pump this up. Thus, it becomes a 3/4 for let's say, 1UU that makes you discard a card. Is that awful or what? Now if we dump two spells into this, we've got a 5/6 with some pretty juicy stats, but we are also out two cards unless we have stack tricks like Isochron Scepter to work with. I see Storm decks sideboarding these but man, how often do you want to just throw spells away? Is an opponent going to care that you ate the spell that they were countering? Nivmagus Elemental looks like too much work to get going, and every spell counts.

This is, simply, not a monster that you want to rip off the top and it's also not something strong enough to build around. These have cooled to about $3 and that seems about right for them. This is not a Delver.

 

That concludes my Eternal-centric set review. What did I miss? What do you disagree with? Ultimately, RTR has a bunch of great role-players but like the original Ravnica, it does not have much that fundamentally changes Eternal formats. It still looks great and I'm hoping that the remaining dozen cards (including a few mythics!) are worth the wait.

 

Until next week,

-Doug Linn

Insider: More Irrational Behaviors in MTG Finance

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Magic Card finance is much broader than simple supply and demand. Because the cards have utility in a competitive setting, you have playability and metagame factors. Because the cards have associations to fantasy concepts people get excited about, there is an emotional aspect. And because there are exchanges going on constantly, there is a Game Theory / Psychological aspect.

Many finance articles focus heavily on the supply and demand portion. I reference this portion of the pastime frequently as well. For example, my lack of desire to pre-order Return to Ravnica cards because of price inflation due to hype and perceived short supply is a fundamental economics concept that is easy to understand.

But basic economic theory isn’t sufficient to explain all players’ behaviors, and this is due to other factors involved in the hobby. The historical data is blaring – presale prices nearly always drop upon a set’s release. Yet emotions run wild and players want to brew up the next competitive deck right away so they throw rational economic sense out the window and make their purchases.

This week I want to return to the behaviors of Magic players that are driven not by economic gain, but by emotional and psychological factors. And while not directly applicable to speculating on cards, perhaps it will open the window a bit further into what causes us to do the irrational from time to time.

It’s All Relative – Price Association

The first concept I want to introduce perhaps explains why people preorder cards at ridiculous prices. We are all convinced that there will be a card or two in Return to Ravnica that will shoot up in price post release. And we all hope we will be capable of identifying said treasure.

But the reality is in order to be successful in this endeavor, emotions and past associations need to be kept in check. It is easy into fall into the trap of saying a card like Abrupt Decay is destined for greatness because it’s bigger brothers Maelstrom Pulse and Vindicate are valuable removal spells in Eternal formats.

Because of selective memory, these examples are causing an inflated preorder price on Abrupt Decay.

Here’s my take: people compare Abrupt Decay to Maelstrom Pulse and they identify how Pulse was a $20 card in Standard despite not being Mythic. What they neglect to remember is that Jund had completely warped the Standard format, and so the removal spell was in especially high demand. But the format distortion was not caused by Maelstrom Pulse, but by a partner in crime… Bloodbraid Elf.

Next, people will compare the card to Vindicate, identifying how that card is now worth over $20 thanks to Legacy. What they neglect to notice, however, is that the card was worth half that for years (chart from blacklotusproject.com), not to mention the fact that Apocalypse didn’t sell on the same order of magnitude as Return to Ravnica will. Additionally, Abrupt Decay is a Rare in the Mythic Rare era.

Players like to preorder cards they can associate with other cards because it makes them feel capable of predicting future prices based on these comparisons. But often times people are led astray because of these comparisons.

Another example is with Time Reversal, which sold for $29.99 upon initial spoiling simply due to the association with [card Timetwister]Power 9[/card]. It’s the same reason nearly every new Planeswalker is way overpriced during preorder season – emotional responses of buyers due to a potential subconscious association with Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

But the fact that we are capable of making this association hinders us more than it helps us. It gives us a false feeling that we can predict what’s next, when in reality there are a plethora of other factors involved with price predictions. It is very easy to fall into the trap of making a prediction based on selective memory.

The best way to avoid this pitfall: don’t preorder cards.

(Disclaimer: the only card I’ve preordered from Return to Ravnica is a set of Angel of Serenity. I collect angels and since the card is a Mythic Rare, I don’t anticipate I’ll be opening one in draft any time soon.)

The Cost of Ownership

The other concept I want to mention comes from Behavioral Economics again, and I picked this idea up from Dan Ariely’s Predictably Irrational: The cost of ownership.

I’ll begin with an example – have you ever attempted to trade with someone only to find they were valuing their Snapcaster Mage at retail? They proceed to explain how it’s always in high demand and easy to move, and therefore they deserve a premium on the card.

In reality, the card is readily available on MOTL for $18-$20 despite retailing for $24.99. You know this, and you also know that many players trade the card at $20 since everyone knows a twenty dollar bill will immediately get you a dozen sellers on MOTL willing to sell you their copy (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Why does this discrepancy exist? Often times, the owner of a card or other item will value it higher than the party interested in acquiring the same item. The owner subconsciously will factor in many additional pieces of data that you aren’t privy to. The owner may consider what they gave up for the Snapcaster Mage, the fact that the Snapcaster Mage is part of a playset, or that the card recently won them a tournament. Whatever the influential factors are, they aren’t economics-driven and they often aren’t rational.

A Snapcaster Mage is a Snapcaster Mage, and almost everyone knows what they are worth. The information is public and widespread due to the popularity of the card, yet sometimes we fall short of an agreement on the card’s value. This concept can apply to many situations involving any card, really.

How can we beat this shortcoming everyone possesses, including ourselves, if we’re not consciously doing it?

My advice is that you try to position a trade with someone in a way that makes your trade partner feel like they already own your cards before the trade is complete. The best way I’ve come up with to do this is by encouraging your trade partner to pull the cards they want out of your binder and place them aside during a trade. By doing this, they already subconsciously feel like they “own” the cards and that the trade is going to be more likely. Because of the perceived ownership, they just may be willing to value your cards a tiny bit higher.

There’s even ample data to support this concept all over eBay. Many times I’ve acquired a card at a discount because the starting bid was placed just below average completed auction prices. People see the higher starting bid and although it may be slightly below average ended auctions, they compare the price with auctions for the same card starting at $0.99 and they bid on those instead.

Once they bid, they subconsciously (or even consciously) begin to feel like they already own the cards. They anticipate winning the auction, and winning is a great feeling in and of itself. Then when they are suddenly outbid they are willing to pay more for the cards because they feel like they lost something they already possessed. And that feeling of loss is quite powerful. The end result – the buyer ends up with an economically suboptimal outcome due to irrational emotions.

Examples are endless on eBay, but I’ll use two recent Snapcaster Mage auctions to illustrate my point.

This auction recently ended at $90 for a set of Mages, and the starting bid was $0.99:

This auction started at $70.00 and ended up selling with one bid:

Granted there are other factors involved when predicting ended auction prices on eBay – a seller’s feedback rating, card conditions, auction ending time, etc. But I’ve found that auctions for popular cards that start right below average completed auction values sell for less than auctions starting at $0.99. I am a believer that this is due to the emotional “cost of ownership”

Conclusion and Quick Facts

Nobel Prizes have been won for some of the economic concepts we learn in high school and college, but it’s interesting how experts in the field of psychology and behavioral sciences are recently finding shortcomings in some of these basic economic concepts. Supply and Demand and the Invisible Hand are not the only factors dictating price because human beings are occasionally emotional, irrational creatures.

~

Now I want to try something a little different. I’m always observing price trends on cards I’m interested in buying/selling. I want to try closing my article with three recent observations, which I find noteworthy. While unrelated to the article’s content, such tidbits of information may be both interesting and useful to you in your trading.

Let me know if you like this feature and I’ll continue to close out my articles with more of such observations on a weekly basis.

  1. As of 9/16 at 8am, Star City Games is once again sold out of Woodland Cemetery at $11.99, which is very close to average eBay pricing. I expect retail prices to increase again soon.
  2. Star City Games and Channel Fireball have a few copies of foil Little Girl in stock for $19 - $20 depending on condition. This price is about the same as eBay completed listings and it’s less than other retail sites such as Troll and Toad ($25) and Strike Zone ($25.75).
  3. Star City Games increased their preorder pricing on Angel of Serenity from $8 to $10 shortly after my email blast on the card. The cheapest Buy it Now price on eBay for a single copy of the card is $8.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Lyzolda, the Blood Witch — Profiting from Death

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Through my quest to construct a Commander deck for every color combination, I decided that at least one deck needed to take advantage of a death theme. The best candidate for such a task was certainly the king of death, black.

Choosing a Commander

From the outset I knew the commander for this deck had to be black, but what other colors could benefit from a death theme? I obviously wanted the commander to take a major role in the function of the deck, so he/she had to take advantage of 'death' somehow. Also, I already had a deck that took advantage of my opponents' creatures dying, so the plan was for this deck to utilize the death of its own creatures.

There are actually quite a few generals that would work wonderfully for this idea.

I decided upon Lyzolda, the Blood Witch. First, because I hadn't seen anyone else use her as a general, and second, I like that she generates card advantage.

The Theme

The idea I had in mind while making this deck was to use cards that do something when they die, sacrifice things for benefit, or generate tons of tokens.

Black plays the primary role for the theme, while red provides a few synergy cards, but mostly support.

The Deck

Here is the list that I currently run.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

Artifacts

Enchantments

Spells

Planeswalkers

Lands

19 Swamp
6 Mountain

The first batch of cards I looked at were black creatures that could be sacrificed repeatedly to Lyzolda's ability. This is the deck's primary method of generating card advantage.

Some all-stars:

I can't always rely on Lyzolda being in play, so I looked for other cards that could make use of large quantities of sacrificial fodder:

Knowing that the deck could reliably sacrifice creatures, I then added things that did exciting stuff when creatures died:

Filling out the rest of the deck was pretty easy. I chose cards that took advantage of death in other ways, like persist and undying, or creatures that had '[card bone shredder]enters the battlefield[/card]' triggers, so I would get two benefits from them.

I also made sure I could deal with my opponents spells and permanents. The one struggle this deck has is with enchantments. The only card that reliably gets rid of one is Chaos Warp. Sadly enchantment removal is not black or red's favorite thing to do.

How to Win

The first version of this deck was so all-in on the death theme that it had trouble winning, which sadly happens often with the decks I create. I just love synergy too much!

The best card by far in this deck is Vicious Shadows. It is so insanely powerful that I have considered removing it from the deck. I will often play it, and kill every opponent within a turn or two. The reason it is so powerful is that Commander is a game of card advantage, so players often have a full hand of cards. By the time Vicious Shadows is out, it will only take four or five dead creatures to finish someone off.

Other cards that are good at dealing damage:

Other than these, I often win with a horde of tokens.

Why This Deck Is So Fun

The thing I like most about this deck is that nearly all of the cards are synergistic is some manner, which is what I like most about playing Magic. Also, the commander is cheap, so she can be cast repeatedly each game. Another wonderful thing is that although I want to cast Lyzolda as soon as possible, she isn't necessary for the deck to function well.

While there is extreme synergy involved with this deck, there are no infinite combos that ruin everyone's good time. We all just want to have fun, and this deck does it very well. It's not too powerful, so it won't win a ton of games, but it will always survive long enough for me to have a fun.

As always, feel free to leave any comments. I am always looking forward to hearing your suggestions!

Insider: Navigating Return to Ravnica on MTGO

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Spoiler season is in full swing and the paper release of Return to Ravnica (RtR) is just around the corner. WoTC has yet to officially announce the prerelease schedule for MTGO, but according to this article, the online prerelease weekend will be Friday the 12th through Sunday the 14th of October. To tide the digital masses over while paper prereleases are being held there will be a week of Cube Draft on MTGO. For speculators, this is the first bit of action related to the release of RtR that will drive the market so it's time to brush up on what has come before.

Cube

Cube Draft is expected to award out-of-print packs as prizes, so once Cube Draft and the prizes are announced, be sure to promptly sell any extra copies of valuable cards from the appropriate sets. The prices will tank on these cards because alongside the Cube will be a queue devoted to drafting the awarded out-of-print packs. The drafts that fire there will push new supply onto the market, bringing prices down. The chart of Tarmogoyf illustrates this activity as Time Spiral-Planar Chaos-Future Sight (TPF) were the first out-of-print packs to be awarded from Cube Drafts.

If you sold Tarmogoyf at the announcement of TPF packs as prizes for Cube (suggested in a QS Insider Email incidentally), then you could have made a tidy profit by buying them back during the draft queues. If you are caught flat footed and don't have time to sell before the prices tank, do not panic and sell your cards. Typically these queues do not make a long term dent in the price so it's better to wait it out for prices to rebound. With the Modern PTQ season coming up in December, any staple that tanks due to these queues will recover it's price in a few months.

Lastly, it's important to consider what packs will *not* be awarded through Cube. For instance, if Shadowmoor-Eventide (SHM-EVE) is not the going to be awarded, then it's quite likely that the supply of cards from these sets will see no further increases prior to the start of the Modern season. A card like Twilight Mire is a great pick up as it is a necessary for Modern Jund decks and the availability of rares from these older sets is quite low. In season, Twilight Mire was 18-22 tix. This card is a lock for profits three months down the road if SHM-EVE dodges the payouts for Cube Draft.

Are We in Ravnica Yet?

Once the online prerelease weekend hits, it will be your last chance to sell any older printings of the RtR shocklands. Fall Standard rotation occurs as soon as events start firing, so there will be a short window between prerelease and release events when the best cards from RtR will sell at a high premium. Deck builders will want to try out their new creations and the grinders will want to take advantage of a somewhat soft and undetermined field. This leads to inflated prices on the chase cards. For example, Thragtusk held 13-15 tix prior to M13 release events but is now a 4-ticket rare.

If you're holding onto Overgrown Tomb or Temple Garden, both are close to their highest price in a year and they should move even higher in the window between prerelease and release events. Prices for RtR shocklands should be 10+ tix just prior to release events. In particular, pay attention to the high and low prices that shocklands reach during this window. It's quite possible a profitable and predictable trade could repeat in the future with Sacred Foundry and Watery Grave for Gatecrash's release.

After the first weekend of RtR Limited, the shocklands will start coming down in price as release events pump a large amount of supply into the market. Although shocklands were predictable money makers in the past, it's time to put these aside as speculative tools for the medium term. Modern season will not have a large enough effect to move prices on these while packs are being cracked in RtR drafts. Any extra demand from the Modern season will be dwarfed by shifts in the Standard metagame, so make sure you sell any extra copies of RtR shocklands over the next month.

Release Events

The first weekend of release events represents a buying opportunity for the newest mythics. The most hyped cards will be expensive. Don't touch these. Look for constructed-playable mythics in the 5 to 10 tix price range and buy a basket of them. These will all have potential to spike up in price depending on the whims of the market and Standard.

Last year, Geist of Saint Traft was in the 7 to 9 tix range for most of November. You might have overpaid a little if you bought in at release events, but it would have been worth it. Contrast this with buying Liliana of the Veil during release events. Last year, Liliana was *the* chase mythic of Innistrad and buying in during release events would have been a painful lesson on avoiding hype. During spoiler season, everyone is dreaming of a card's best outcomes, not really knowing or understanding how the Fall Standard metagame will actually play out. Don't believe the hype!

For those of us who play online, the delayed release means there is less discovery among the new cards by online players. IRL players will find some of the best uses early on for cards from RtR. By the time release events are firing, the early prices for most cards will have been determined. Some are set too high as the hype has yet to fade, and some are set high but poised to go higher. For example, Bonfire of the Damned was never available online for less than 20 tix, while paper copies were going early on for $5. By the time Avacyn Restored came out online, the word had gotten out on Bonfire.

As online speculators then, it is not worth thinking too hard at this stage about what cards from RtR are going to break out. Enjoy spoiler season and try to get out to a paper release, but pay attention to the Cube Draft announcement and plan accordingly.

Good Luck, High Five! – Episode 2: Super Ultra Ghost Rare!

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"Good Luck, High Five!" is back with another hilarious and insightful podcast!

Your hosts Mike Hawthorne and Ryan Overturf are joined by financial guru Forrest Ryan and elf enthusiast Jesse Westphal to discuss the results of SCG Portalnd, followed by a look at some new spoilers.

(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Show Notes:

SCG Portland Standard Top 16 Decklists

SCG Portland Legacy Top 16 Decklists

MTGSalvation Return to Ravnica Spoiler Archive

Ravnica — City of Spells

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The return to the best world Wizards ever created is shaping up to be quite the epic sequel. I was nervous about returning to a previous world after Scars block turned out so horribly.

If you like what Wizards did with Mirrodin, I am happy for you, but I found the three sets lackluster other than a hand full of cool constructed cards (the swords mainly). Phyrexian mana was neat at first but cheating on mana is never a good thing for a healthy constructed environment. Basically Scars block is my least favorite since I began playing Magic. With that in mind, you can imagine how unhappy I was about going back to Ravnica so soon.

It turns out I had no reason to worry. Return to Ravnica is shaping up to be quite an awesome set. With only a third of the set spoiled I am already excited. There are a ton of new cards split over the five guilds that look fun and interesting.

One trend I am noticing in this set is a power level of spells much closer to that of creatures. We all know Wizards has focused on making Standard all about battling with creatures, which has inevitably resulted in better and better creatures. In the new set it seems that the power level of the spells is increasing as well.

Last week, I talked about the three guild charms that have been spoiled so far. Those spells seem obviously powerful to me. It may be that Wizards sees this multicolored block as an opportunity to push the power level across the board.

Selections from the Spoiler

Today I want to talk about some of the cards that seem pushed in power level.

First up we have Slaughter Games. Here are its predecessors:

Adding uncounterability to this spell is a clear increase in power level. It is certainly much better than the extra damage offered by Thought Hemorrhage. At four mana, these Cranial Extraction remakes have been mostly unplayable, but with the additional ability Slaughter Games becomes very reasonable.

This time around sideboards may have quite a bit more Slaughter Games in them. The presence of this Rakdos hate card may limit the possibilities of a combo deck existing in Standard as well.



 

In original Ravnica, we had powerful spells like Putrefy and Mortify that players still remember and wish would return to Standard. Now, we are chopping off a mana from those types of effects in both Dreadbore and Abrupt Decay.


The obvious comparison for Dreadbore is to Terminate because they cost the same mana and provide similar effects. Essentially we lose a big strength from Terminate (being an instant) to gain strength in another area (the ability to kill a planeswalker). Dreadbore seems quite strong and should see some play. Being a sorcery does hurt its chances but the ability to destroy a planeswalker outright, which has never been printed before, makes it worth the drawback.

Abrupt Decay on the other hand basically does it all. The combination of low mana cost, uncounterability, versatility and instant speed should give this spell the opportunity to shine in multiple formats.

Most players are talking about the Modern and Legacy implications, but it will certainly impact Standard as well. Because you are limited by targets that cost three or less, you most likely won't want the full four copies, but that won't stop this card from having a big effect.



 

Next up we have Supreme Verdict. This card is not getting much attention at all and I have no clue why. A Day of Judgment that can't be countered! The main reason Day of Judgment was not seeing play in Standard is because it would just get countered by all the Delver players. With Verdict that is no longer an option.

I still think Terminus is better because of creatures' resiliency in the format right now but adding uncounterability to Wrath of God is a crazy bump in power level. This card also seems insane in EDH if you play that format.



 

Even though counterspells are not nearly as powerful as they used to be thanks to the uncounterability cycle and Cavern of Souls, reprinting Syncopate scares me a bit. For comparison, I have been playing Condescend in my Modern decks for a while now. These x counterspells can be used either as a two-mana counter like Mana Leak or as a kind of Spell Blast late-game, adding lots of versatility to the world of permission.

While I don't want to be the one holding up counters when people can simply slam a [card Cavern of Souls]Cavern[/card] to ruin my plans, Syncopate is still capable of putting limitations on the format. It forces players to play more tribal decks in order to run all four Cavern of Souls. The amount of impact this card will have is yet to be seen, but the effect is worth noting.



 

This card is great! First of all, I know the mana cost says three but the actual cost is four because you want to be able to activate it the turn you cast it. When you realize you'll draw cards at the same pace as Phyrexian Arena, it becomes apparent how strong it is. The one drawback of Phyrexian Arena was that you could kill yourself but with Underworld Connections that will never happen.

I love the fact that it is an enchant land because they don't print cool cards like that anymore. The flavor of the card is amazing too.

I expect this card to see play in Standard in a variety of decks. I could even see the Zombie aggro deck playing a couple of this card main or sideboard, but even if it doesn't, a control strategy will adopt it.



 

This is my favorite card in the new set so far. The overload ability is a bit expensive, but six mana is still reasonable. What I love about this card is that early in the game it is a solid removal spell but later it becomes a Plague Wind.

Think Bonfire of the Damned is amazing? I like Mizzium Mortars even more. One thing to keep in mind is that the triple-red overload cost will require you to have a lot of red mana before you start relying on the card's upper end.



 

Is a multicolored Impulse that looks at five cards but can only find a creature or land good? Yes. There are many applications for this card but the main one seems to be for a reanimation deck. Frites, for example, may still be viable and if so, this spell helps out a lot. I like this card much more if you are putting cards in your graveyard with flashback because then it effectively draws more than one card.



 

Genesis Wave for spells! That is one impressive x spell. If there is a deck that wants to play lots of instants and sorceries but also has a lot of mana, this card seems insane. The problem is that most likely, you will be playing some number of creatures and that will throw off the effectiveness this spell. As of yet, there are not many ways to ramp your mana in the new format but even if there were, they don't go well with Epic Experiment. I am not sure this card will find a home but it is definitely awesome.



 

Finally, we have Rakdos's x spell. I must say that I am underwhelmed by this card. A lot of advocates for this spell compare it to Blightning. The difference is that Blightning was mana efficient and this card is definitely not. It costs 4-5 mana for the same effect as Blightning, depending on whether the damage or discard matters more. That is too late in the game to impact many matches.

If two control decks are battling it out, I think this card could be a fine way to gain an edge, but that makes it a good sideboard card, not maindeck material. This card seems way overhyped and I am not buying into it.

No More Spoilers

Well, that's it for me today. I think it is evident that the spells in Ravnica are being pushed to the power level of the creatures. Having powerful spells is great and healthy for the format as long as none get pushed too far. Next week I will have more spoilers to talk about and maybe even some new deck lists for you as well. Enjoy the rest of spoiler season!

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: What, oh What, To Do With Our Lands?

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Return to Ravnica spoilers are everywhere now, and I want to get this out of the way up front. I think Zombies are insane.

It looks 100% to be the best deck going forward, and that has many implications. To give you an idea of the deck’s power level, here’s a scenario. I’m testing against Jund-colored Zombies (and probably not even the strongest build) with a deck designed to crush Zombies. To give you an idea, I’m running the “Living End” deck of Innistrad block, where you cast a bunch of value Humans to survive the early turns and eventually get an Angel of Glorys Rise into play.

That means I’m playing cards to survive, like [card Huntmaster of the Fells]Huntmaster[/card], Fiend Hunter, Doomed Traveler; even stuff like Cathedral Sanctifier because it’s all about getting to an Angel. I’m running 4 Faithless Looting, 4 Angels and 4 Unburial Rites to make it happen before Turn 7. To add on this, I thought playing three copies of Riders of Gavony would be good in the upcoming meta and solidify the Zombies matchup.

On paper, I should pretty much never lose to Zombies. So what happened? I lost, 4-3, in the seven games we played. That’s including sideboarded games where I’m bringing in EVEN MORE hate. Cards like Elite Inquisitor! That’s how powerful the Zombies deck is.

But it’s not what we’re here to talk about today.

Flip That House

Real Estate is up all over the place these days, and I want to talk about the two relevant cycles we care about – Innistrad lands and Shocklands. Let’s start with the former.

Uh, remember what I said about how good Zombies, and specifically the Plant variety, are? BLP is a bit of a lagging indicator, and in reality the Cemetery is up to $11 on TCGPlayer.

What does this mean going forward? I think you can probably pick up Cemeteries for the next week or two at decent prices before everyone catches on to the spike, but I really can’t see it holding more than $12-14 long-term; there were just too many opened. That said, Zombies are a real thing, and stocking up on both the good Zombie cards (and lands) is a good move; if you want to go deeper you can look for the cards that hurt Zombies.

So we know about the Cemetery. What about the other ones?

Hopefully you’ve been taking the advice we’ve been giving for months and months on this site and stocked up on all the Innistrad lands, but if not there are still some opportunities.

Isolated Chapel is right behind Cemetery in terms of price, holding steady at $10, where it’s been for awhile. Interestingly, Sulfur Falls is the only one of the Return to Ravnica-colored Guilds that is low. While Izzet as a Guild doesn’t look overwhelming, the color combination will likely stick around in Control decks as the format matures, and that makes it more attractive.

Now, we get to the ones I’m more excited about. Specifically, Clifftop Retreat and Hinterland Harbor. Prices on both of these have come up as well, but they are going to be more undervalued on the trade floor than the other ones.

Why is this? On the simplest level, it’s because the Guilds for those two colors aren’t out yet. I expect Boros to be incredibly popular when it comes out, so Clifftop Retreat is my No. 1 target as far as Innistrad lands go. I’m excited for Simic, but I don’t think it will be as popular as Boros, which already has so many pieces in the Human cards from Innistrad. A U/G combination, on the other hand, isn’t as readily apparent. It’s still a good move to pick these up.

While people are going nuts over Woodland Cemeteries, I’m going to be stocking up on the other Innistrad lands and wait for their day in the sun.

Medium-term I see all the lands holding value upwards of $7, with spikes up to $13-14 for the most popular ones. It’s not quite as high as the Scars Fastlands reached, but the addition of Shocklands makes these Duals better, not worse.

Shocklands

Here’s the big question on everyone’s minds. Shocklands are already priced highly, and they’re going to be needed in such a variety of formats, how are they not a great pickup at $10?

Here’s the thing. If SCG is pre-selling the most highly-anticipated cycle in the Block at $10 (where 3/5 are), you shouldn’t be buying. Yes, the Shocks are great. Yes, they’re played everywhere.

But this isn’t the first time the above statements were true. Let’s look at the last time this happened.

Super high starting prices, and then a solid baseline of $8-10 for many months after that, until the creation of Modern spiked the price again. Arguably, fetches are in even more demand than Shocklands, since you don’t always run 4x of a particular Shock in Modern and you don’t even use them in Legacy. So if Blue fetches can’t break $10 during their Standard run, can Shocks?

The answer is no. Given the discrepancy between Ebay (BLP prices) and retail, I think this would seem to suggest Shocks would be in the $10-15 range retail.

All Is Not As It Seems

But that’s not all there is to the story. Not even close.

Let’s start with the more obvious difference. Shocklands are reprints. While there aren’t exactly infinite copies of the originals running around, there are enough to make a difference. With this in mind we would lower our original prediction by probably 25-30%. That means we’d be looking at a retail price of $7-11.

But again, there’s more we need to look at, in particular with our comparisons to fetchlands.

Zendikar was opened three at a time for three months for drafting purposes. It was then opened two at a time for three months for drafting purposes. Then it wasn’t drafted at all.

Now let’s look at at Return to Ravnica. It is going to be opened thee at a time for three months for drafting purposes. Then it won’t be opened at all for three months. Then it will be opened one at a time for three months. Same is true for Gatecrash.

By my math, that’s three months where we are opening one less individual Shockland pack than Fetchland pack. It’s not enough of a reduction in demand to offset the realities of reprinting, but it will help prices hold some.

It is by considering all of this information that I’ve come to my own personal conclusion on the price of Shocks – that they’ll have a baseline of $7-8, with the most popular ones spiking to $12-13.

I understand this isn’t exactly a groundbreaking prediction, but I think an analysis of all the factors we have to consider is something worth detailing. Knowledge is power, and it’s by using metrics like this that I come up with my predictions, rather than simply “going with my gut.” Lots of times, those who are making predictions are mentally accounting for these factors in their heads, even if they can’t articulate them, so I hope my spelling it out was helpful.

Also, if you have a chance I think you should trade New Shocks for Old Shocks straight-up. It remains to be seen if the new art is enough of an improvement (if at all) to push the price of New Shocks past old ones, but I doubt it does. However, I do think you’re going to find people who are willing to trade straight across, and this nets you a few dollars every time you do it, based on current prices.

I hope you’re all as excited about the set as I am!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter 

Insider: Across the Atlantic – Trades, Thoughts & Speculation

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I am writing this article in the middle of the RtR Spoiling season when people get excited, cards get overhyped or frowned upon, brewers start their testing sessions eager to make an impact, and we speculators come back from holidays ready for financial opportunities.

In this article I want to address a mix of different topics I have been thinking of, discussing and doing recently.

Overmaster

First things first I am still going deep on Overmaster as the webshops in Europe are starting to up their prices if they have any in stock.

I think $2.55 is far from the real eBay price. MagicTraders has it at $3.88 currently and looking through eBay.com itself I see three auctions at $15 in played condition (80%) and two other playsets at $19. If you've been following the Overmaster thread in the forums, you know some posters are confident they can still sell them for $5 a piece. I have some Overmasters incoming from vendors and plan to put this to the test.

I am the only non-US seller selling it as a single card instead of a playset, and I feel this puts me at an advantage because in the past people have bought 2 or 3 copies each from me. My buyers are mostly residing in European countries in which I have no competition other than a lone Spaniard selling Spanish-language copies.

I bought 35 copies at €0.50 ($0.65) each and sold them for $4.5 each within a week. I still find some shops with these cards at bulk price so I think I will order some more and keep a playset just in case prices rise even more. If you can find any under $1.50, I would recommend buying them. If you can find any in trade binders or bulk bins, by all means ask them to add one or two as a deal closer.

Thoughts about Return to Ravnica Spoilers

Presale has started in Europe. Keep in mind that StarCityGames is among the quickest companies to offer the new product, a "luxury" we don't enjoy in Europe. When I'm looking for presale cards, I mostly look at MagicCardMarket.eu. Several sellers from different countries offer presales and they are fiercely competitive which makes cards either extremely cheap or overpriced.

A prime example is Abrupt Decay:

It is currently in the top weekly selling cards on MagicCardMarket among other RtR cards like Supreme Verdict (€3.70 low), Lotleth Troll (€7.25 low) and Dreadbore (€5.87 low).

But Abrupt Decay is particularly interesting because StarCityGames has it priced at only $15 USD.

Since I feel this set is following the same spoiling pattern as Avacyn Restored (I will write in more detail about this when I have done my analysis), I will not be purchasing any of these cards as speculation targets.

Avacyn Restored spoiler season began with Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Griselbrand and Temporal Mastery. It continued with hyped cards like Vexing Devil, [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card], Desolate Lighthouse and [card Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded]Tibalt[/card]. Bonfire of the Damned was spoiled at the same time as Tibalt and Tamiyo so it sneaked under almost everyone's radar, especially when 48 hours later Entreat the Angels was miraculously spoiled.

I will be looking closely every day. I also have the luxury of being a member of the Irish/United Kingdom Magic page in which people post new cards and go nuts with comments. This way I get a good grasp of how people are thinking about a card, and can decide whether to speculate on it or trade it away during the prerelease.

A thought about sealed booster boxes. It is common for online shops to sell them for 85€ - 87.50 ($108 - 111). Some weeks ago the exchange rate was 1.22:1 so it would have been $104. I know more or less how much it cost for retail shops to buy these boxes from their wholesale distributor. My conclusion is that booster box prices won't rise that much here in Europe compared to USA.

Local Trades & Thoughts

Magic Celebration was honestly fun. A lot of players showed up (free boosters, I'll take it!) and some even brought trading binders with them. I cracked my first pack to find a Thundermaw Hellkite. I actually put effort in making the first page of my binder as attractive as possible for these casual players.

So since I have a 3x3 UltraPro binder these were the nine cards I put in front: Serra Avenger, Bruna, Light of Alabaster, Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Angel of Jubilation, Akroma's Memorial, Foil Battle of Wits, Elvish Piper, Gideon Jura, Thundermaw Hellkite.

Now one has to realize that I have two binders, one more exclusive with cards like Vendilion Clique, Innistrad duals et.al., which I do not show as easily as the first binder. The binder I show first contains cards that appeal to Standard, EDH and casual players.

The goal for each card in the front of the binder is to create instant excitement and a "must have card" urge for whatever reason. A first impression is something I am testing out in my community, as I do not like asking, "Do you have any trades?" I much prefer starting a conversation with a player who is already looking at my Avacyn with interest. Then I can transition into trading.

If a person gets instantly excited about certain cards, they will trade easier with you, especially if you small talk during the trade. I dislike quoting of prices and I won't even start talking about ratings as it costs me time and energy and I want to keep it simple for these players.

In the end I made a few trades, but in one a guy who pretends he is a good guy saving novices from getting ripped off was interfering by saying he could pull out half of my cards. This is annoying and creates tension among the trading table. I told him to not interfere as I was not interfering with his trades. I should have thanked him for helping people out and then seize momentum by just adding a few rares in the trade that make my trading partner even happier.

I want to end this section discussing a moderate-size trade I made for some eternal cards. Inspired by my playtest group who plays a cube weekly, my trading partner wanted to create a cube himself. Since cube owners tend to change their cube constantly, you can be there to offer advice on what cards to include, and trade or sell them what they need.

I made the following trade using the average price on Magic.TCGPlayer.com (It made the trade easier and I had no intention of taking advantage of him):

I gave (prices in USD):

Restoration Angel ($12)
Battlefield Forge ($1.8)
Mirran Crusader ($1.88)
Geist of Saint Traft ($19.6)
Black Sun's Zenith ($2.83)
Huntmaster of the Fells ($18.7)
Elvish Piper ($4.78)
Swords to Plowshares ($3.7)
Gideon Jura ($6.5)
Total: $71.81

I received:

Sterling Grove ($4.6)
Serra's Sanctum ($17)
High Market ($6.5)
Erratic Portal ($1.2)
Master Transmuter ($6)
2x Cackling Counterpart ($1 total)
Darksteel Forge ($11.5)
Salvaging Station ($0.5)
Noble Hierarch ($20)
Skull of Orm ($0.5)
Mind Funeral (he treated it as bulk uncommon but $3.5)
Bulk uncommons like Muscle Sliver, Diregraf Ghoul, Treasure Mage
Total: $73

I helped out his cube and I got the cards I was looking for for my EDH deck. The Noble Hierarch is basically in there because he did not want to trade his Bribery, which was of course unfortunate but I can't complain.
I like this trade because I traded away Standard cards for eternal cards that are hard for me to get in general because of what I possess.

Magic Online Project

Lastly, I was talking with fellow QS author Sigmund Ausfresser about starting up a MODO portfolio. So far I have only focused on paper Magic, but lately I've been thinking about writing an article cataloging the development of an online portfolio, and I want to see what my readers think.

Basically the article would be a sort of diary of progressing from a starting point of, let's say, 100 tickets to 1000 tickets. I would describe what I invest my tickets in and the various permutations of the portfolio as it develops. Let me know what you think about this idea. I look forward to reading your comments!

- Gervaise 'Gerv'

P.S. I changed my Twitter nickname to twitter.com/gerv055. Generally I tweet with other speculators about certain cards but from time to time I'm also looking to buy some MTGO tix!

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