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Alright, no more distractions. It's time to find out if the companion rules change actually worked. When the change came down, I hypothesized that there would be a general drop-off in playability, but companions would remain a factor in Modern. Lurrus of the Dream-Den would take the biggest hit, while Obosh, the Preypiercer would be unaffected. Now it's time to see if I was clairvoyant.
Companions will go down as a great "what if?" in Magic. They became legal, rose, and then fell at a point when only online play was possible. The online metagame has always been a bit weird and distorted compared to paper, and thus it's natural to wonder if the complete takeover seen online would have played out in paper. Online has always been more fluid and prone to follow-the-trend groupthink thanks to a lower barrier to entry and deck switching, so it's possible that more players would have resisted companions rather than join them under normal circumstances. I suspect little would have changed, since companion's opportunity cost proved too low. But it could have!
Methodology
The purpose of this inquiry is to find out if companions were provably nerfed. To investigate, I'm taking all the posted results from non-League events, tabulating the overall data (because we might as well look at where the metagame is heading, too), and then separating out the companions. I had intended to then do some statistics on the data, but as you'll see, that isn't necessary. The answer proved to be far more obvious than I expected. I also kept track of which decks were still playing companions.
The data is from the two full weeks since the announcement. This is partially so there was enough time for players to experiment and test their decks; taking a sample right after implementing the change would reflect the confusion, chaos, and conversion of the transition, yielding muddied data. That is, muddied unless tracking the evolution from the old to the new version of a deck is the point. I wanted to see where players' heads were once they'd had time to adapt. I've lumped all the singleton decks together as Other.
The other reason is that I'm not sure when the rules change actually hit MTGO. When the announcement went up, I remember it saying that the rules change would be implemented June 4 for MTGO. Later, it was changed to June 3. However, in one matchup I played on June 4, my opponent was still able to play their companion as before, though that didn't happen June 5. Technology is wonderful, isn't it? Regardless of anything else, I'm going to sample after the point I'm sure the rules were successfully updated online.
Week of 6/7
As a reminder, right before the change went in, Prowess was on top of the metagame by a wide margin. GBx and Eldrazi Tron were second and third respectively. Lurrus was the most played companion by far, and was present in roughly 50% of all decks. Yorion, the Sky Nomad was in second, representing 13.6%. Attendance had also declined over the course of companion's domination. It is even lower now, with only 108 decks in my sample. However, that fact doesn't necessarily mean anything. My source only recorded three Preliminaries each week, and two premier events week 2.
| Deck Name | Total # |
|---|---|
| Other | 18 |
| Bant Snow | 16 |
| Eldrazi Tron | 11 |
| Burn | 9 |
| Ponza | 8 |
| Toolbox | 8 |
| Amulet Titan | 8 |
| Humans | 7 |
| Storm | 5 |
| Dredge | 4 |
| Temur Urza | 3 |
| Prowess | 3 |
| Neobrand | 2 |
| Sultai Reclamation | 2 |
| 4-C Snow | 2 |
| Temur Snow | 2 |
That is a very through shaking up of the metagame. Prowess has utterly collapsed, while Bant Snow decks have surged. In many ways, they've switched places in the standings. Eldrazi has held its numbers, which in this sample let it move up a place to second. Toolbox is in the same boat. BGx has simply disappeared; I didn't record a single placement for this week. There's no definite reason for this drop-off, but I do have a theory.
There's an impulse to claim that the metagame just reverted to its pre-companion configuration. This isn't true. This metagame data now looks like what players thought the metagame was like before Ikoria, not what it was actually like. The narrative centered on Bant Snow, Urza decks, and Amulet Titan being the best decks in Modern. In reality, RG Ponza was on top of MTGO, and by a wide margin. Ponza had the right disruption and clock to knock all those durdly decks around, and was rewarded accordingly.
My guess as to this deviation is that players went back to lists they knew or believed were good in wake of the change. The various varieties of snow decks were easier to tweak, and powerful choices on their own. Thus, they were the default choice. Everyone else was behind the snow players in terms of the learning curve and didn't correctly anticipate the metagame.
The Companions
As for the real crux of this investigation, I think the companion data speaks for itself.
| Name | Total # | Total Metagame % |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus | 6 | 5.55 |
| Yorion | 5 | 4.63 |
| Jegantha | 2 | 1.85 |
They're just gone! Fallen from ~76% to ~12% of the overall metagame. Lurrus remains the most popular, but only by one deck. Where once I saw six or more companions per week, now there are three, who also happened to be the most prevalent three from before. One set of data isn't definitive, but it very strongly suggests that the nerf was successful, and that companions are something to be earned rather than the default.
Week of 6/14
One data set is insufficient to draw meaningful conclusions. So now it's time for last week's data. This sample, despite being one event lighter than the previous week, was up to 113 decks. I can't see this as anything other than an uptick in participation. This further suggests that the companions were affecting event attendance negatively. In turn, this interpretation would corroborate all the Twitter chatter indicated about players getting burnt out. Hopefully, this population uptick continues.
| Deck Name | Total # |
|---|---|
| Other | 19 |
| Ponza | 14 |
| Eldrazi Tron | 9 |
| Bant Snow | 8 |
| Sultai Snow | 7 |
| Burn | 7 |
| Whirza | 7 |
| Dredge | 6 |
| Storm | 5 |
| Humans | 5 |
| Temur Urza | 4 |
| Temur Snow | 3 |
| Unearth | 3 |
| Infect | 2 |
| Mono-G Tron | 2 |
| Prowess | 2 |
| WG Eldrazi | 2 |
| Ad Nauseam | 2 |
| Niv 2 Light | 2 |
| Bogles | 2 |
| Toolbox | 2 |
To further drive home the point, this week looks nothing like the last. Bant Snow took a beating, while Ponza surged to the top. I suspect these changes are linked, since again, Ponza appears to prey on Snow decks. Sultai Snow has come out of nowhere on the back of recommendations from high level players. Eldrazi Tron is just slogging along, though that 
shouldn't be surprising. It's been putting in strong online showings for a long time, though that rarely translates into paper.
Prowess continues to languish at the bottom of the heap, but notably, Amulet Titan has also bottomed out. There was only one Amulet deck in the sample. I've always thought the deck was overrated, but still reasonable, so this disappearance is something of a mystery. This is especially true in light of it holding its ground during the companion era and being a solid deck beforehand. Given how strong Blood Moon is against the deck, it's tempting to lay the blame on Ponza's rise, but remember that Titan was solid when Ponza was really dominating over a month ago. There's another variable I'm not seeing here.
The Companions
On the subject of confirming results, let's move onto the companion data. And again, I think it speaks for itself.
| Name | Total # | Total Metagame % |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus | 5 | 4.42 |
| Yorion | 5 | 4.42 |
| Obosh | 1 | 0.88 |
Companion participation on Modern has fallen again, both in numerical and percentage terms. Now down from 13 companions and ~12% down to 11 and 9.72%, it is evident that the companion era is well and truly over. Once mighty Lurrus is now tied with Yorion. Obosh is the lone other companion. I was skeptical that Jegantha would keep seeing play due to its cost, and it looks like I was right. That there's only one Obosh left is significant.
Taking Stock
I don't think there can be any doubt, and therefore no need for any statistical analysis: the companion rules change successfully nerfed the companions. It would be cliché and blithe to add "a little too well," but this is the outcome that was intended, and I think it's justified. The way that Wizards talked about companions indicated that they were meant to be a fun but rare treat for constructed, not the omnipresent force they became. Having plummeted in metagame saturation and continuing to fall, the data clearly shows that companions are now Just Another Thing in Magic.
As for the overall metagame, it is far too soon to tell. Again, it's obvious just by looking at the standings that the metagame is far out of equilibrium and is trying to sort itself out. The only clear trends so far are GBx and Prowess disappearing: I have exactly one Jund deck in either sample.
I'm not sure how to explain the fall of BGx. Some blame a poor Snow matchup, but Jund was a fine deck before Ikoria, and Snow was far more present there. If Snow is the explanation, it must be a self-fulfilling prophecy, in which players inordinately fear the matchup enough to just not play the deck. Another suggestion, which I have no way to verify but does make sense, is that a lot of online Jund players sold part of their deck to pay for the Lurrus package. They need time to reassemble their decks. I know players that do this, so it's plausible, but again cannot be verified.
Prowess disappearing is more intuitive. It's effectively been exploiting the metagame this year, and now the hole has closed. Early on, it took advantage of Amulet Titan's non-interactivity. As Titan fell off, so did Prowess. Prowess made the best use of Lurrus, and was rewarded with the top spot in that world. Now the party's over, and interaction is more common.
My Predictions
Since I mentioned my predictions at the start of the article, Checkov's Gun demands that I reexamine them.
Lurrus
I noted that Lurrus was the most impacted, and in terms of its decline, that is definitely true. Prowess, as predicted, had to abandon Lurrus. Of the five Prowess decks I saw, only one had the nightmare cat. The rest resembled older versions. GBx took a much bigger hit than I expected. While I can't directly attribute that to companions falling off, the only Jund list neglected to run Lurrus. With both the card itself and the decks that fully embraced it suffering greatly, I'm claiming success on this prediction.
Obosh
Oh boy, was I ever wrong here. I thought that Obosh Ponza would just keep on keeping on. Instead, only one deck kept the companion. I don't need to guess; I know why I was wrong. I thought the only card lost to Obosh was Chandra, Torch of Defiance, and that's not too burdensome. I forgot that Ponza ran Bloodbraid Elf before companions. Elf's a good card, yeah? And far better than a clunky companion these days.
Yorion
I'm not sure how to call this one. Which is appropriate, considering that I thought Yorion would be ambiguous. The same types of decks still run Yorion, but it's more infrequent. I think I got the effect on Yorion correct, but the decks are still up in the air.
Reaching Into the Kit
As a note, the only archetype that still heavily relies on companions is Toolbox. Of the 10 Toolbox decks I recorded, 7 ran companions (6 Lurrus, 1 Yorion). This makes some sense, as cutting the three-mana creatures still leaves lots of combos available. And with infinite mana, tutoring for Lurrus is no burden. Another interesting note is that three of 16 Burn decks still have an incidental Lurrus. No Mishra's Baubles anymore, just the Lurrus. Because they can, without trouble.
Where Next?
The companion nerf has worked exactly as prescribed. This has left the metagame to readjust. Which it will continue to do for some time thanks to another set incoming. I think that Core 2021's impact will be relatively muted, but there will still be churn added to the existing readjustment. We'll have to wait and see what emerges.
In "
Unlike Stage 1 creatures, which are happy to trade at parity with removal, Stage 2 threats ask too much investment to incentivize such an exchange. As such, all of Modern's played Stage 2 beaters have built-in ways to sidestep Modern's most centralizing removal spell, if not card: Lightning Bolt.
feel like keeping a land untapped, they can threaten to "counter" the instant by simply casting a cantrip, hurling opponents into a mind game: do they risk losing their Bolt for a shot at killing Entity before its controller draws more instants? Or hold out for a tap-down moment? And as for those, "free" spells like Gut Shot can buff Entity even without mana available.
Even ignoring removal, 3/3 is not great stats for a Stage 2 creature. And while Entity can play defense in a pinch, needing to throw spells around every enemy combat step to have more than a Wild Nacatl to work with isn't exactly reliable. Rather, Entity shines on offense, where it clocks better than most Stage 2 creatures.
Also contributing to Entity's offensive standing is its evergreen keyword. Currently, Monastery Swiftspear, Soul-Scar Mage, and Bedlam Reveler are the prowess creatures played in Modern, and none of them have flying. But flying makes a world of difference! Those creatures are all played despite the fact that a chump block throws into question the string of spells cast before combat, requiring players to dip into Crash Through to make prowess worthwhile. That's not a great plan simply because it's not very reliable, but indeed, prowess and evasion are superb together. In essence, Entity comes pre-packaged with a Crash Through for every turn, as few blockers fly, and those that do are easily shot down with burn or other removal. When was the last time you saw a Lingering Souls?
More critically, players need to cast an instant or sorcery on their turn to cast Stormwing for 1U. On its face, that would make the creature cost a functional three mana, since Modern's cheapest instants and sorceries cost 1. But there are some free options to consider (RIP Gitaxian Probe). Best of all is Manamorphose, which replaces itself while happily popping out Stormwing on turn two. I think any deck running 3+ Stormwing will want a full set of these. Phyrexian mana spells can also work, but they're much more conditional; burning Gut Shot with no creature target is less-than-ideal, for instance, although shooting a mana dork and following up with Stormwing is the dream for sure.
Why, Delver, of course! Okay, so the strategy isn't exactly starved for Stage 2 beaters—Temur has Tarmogoyf, and 
Rest in Peace has long been a nightmare for Temur decks, which lean more graveyard-heavy than most aggro strategies thanks to a reliance on Tarmogoyf. And Goyf itself 
I went with green over black as a third color for a few reasons. First, 
But there's something to be said for how no-questions-asked Tarmogoyf is, plopping down on turn two pretty much no matter what and starting to apply pressure. Besides, not all decks play Fatal Push! I started with one copy, moved up to two, and recently trimmed the fourth Entity for Goyf #3. I'd finally felt like enough reps had been achieved that I didn't need to keep Entity at 4 for the sole purpose of grinding numbers with it, and I think the deck runs smoother with fewer birds; otherwise, they can clog in the early game, unlike Tarmogoyf.
Being able to rely on scry 2 triggers from Entity, as well as the filtering offered by all those cantrips, makes the deck apt at running surgical bullets. In the main, I limited these to a Vapor Snag and a Snapcaster Mage, but the sideboard is full of one-ofs with varying degrees of relevance depending on the situation.
The one Phyrexian spell that does make the mainboard is Mutagenic Growth. In a pinch, Growth can target an enemy creature (or our own Delver) to rush out Stormwing. But more often, the instant protects the Stormwing we tapped out for from Lightning Bolt. It does the same for a flipped Delver. In non-Bolt matchups, Bolt's not entirely dead, either; when growing a swinging Stormwing, it's Lava Spike, and can otherwise accelerate into Hooting Mandrills when we're trying to build a board against linear combo or help 
difference between getting a land drop and casting spells and an even greater one, 
you have an arbitrarily large number of Snoops.
Pestermite plus Splinter Twin equals an actual win. Counters combo consists of Druid plus Vizier of Remedies, but winning requires at least one more card. The combo just makes infinite mana.
Then there's the issue of the cards themselves. Boggart Harbinger is not a good card. If it was, it would have seen play before Goblin Matron was reprinted. Demonic Tutor is far more powerful than Vampiric Tutor for a reason. Harbinger's only advantage is the extra point of power and the combo. Twin is also not a very good card in a vacuum, but at least it has some unique utility with any creature rather than being a worse version of another card.
However, slightly-worse-Twin is not an indictment. When it comes together, it's phenomenal. And plugs a strategic hole in Goblins. Whether in Modern or Legacy, Goblins is strong against slow decks, but folds to combo. Goblins's clock is surprisingly slow and can only really race with multiple Goblin Piledrivers. Instead, Goblins grinds with Mogg War Marshall, Goblin Matron, and Goblin Ringleader. My 
As for the combo, Harbinger was as poor as previously described. And also worse because it was clogging up my hand a lot. Goblins is already a top-heavy deck, and Harbinger made it worse. Not just by also costing three, but by making the card flow worse. Since Matron tutors to hand, it is actually card advantage, and more importantly leaves the chance to draw something you need open. Harbinger isn't card advantage, just delayed selection, and dictates your draw step. This isn't inherently bad unless you need to find a string of cards to get back in the game. Harbinger can be actively harmful in those instances. And shaving a Ringleader to stop drawing all my Kiki-Jiki's was a huge mistake.
I stuck with Metallic Mimic for my persist combo piece rather play Grumgully, the Generous. Part of that was fitting the green proved tricky. Goblin decks are mana-hungry, and I was really straining the color balance and life total to make it happen. The primary reason was curve. Again, Goblins has a lot of three drops as is, and hands can get clogged when they're not just clunky. Even when I ran Vial, there were lots of hands that just didn't do anything because of all the threes. Grumgully is very good because it can be tutored, but until the curve problems get worked out, I'm staying away.
This was not a good deck. It didn't have enough interaction to shut down opposing decks, and the threats were too weak to push through. It had to combo to win most of the time, and that didn't happen consistently enough. The problem is that outside the tribal shell, Snoop is just a 2/2 that can combo. It's far too anemic to be a threat on its own, and the goblin density is too low to consistently hit anything in a typical game. Harbinger is in the same boat. Perhaps in a Grixis list with cantrips it could work, but I can't imagine that deck being better than Death's Shadow.
Here’s a quote from my last piece:
Yorion decks all play with tempo in some way: they tend to try delaying the game until they can cast and resolve Yorion, Sky Nomad and reap the value of blinking their cantripping permanents, not to mention the sudden board boost of a 4/5 flier. Then, they often continue using disruptive tactics to help their clock get there.
While Urza 
This 
Reclamation isn’t the only strategy that can make use of some land-ramping, and 
Priest will see play in Modern because it has already seen play in Legacy and Vintage. In both formats, Priest is a huge beating against Dredge and nothing else, leaving decks free to exploit their own graveyards while hosing the most linear of zone abusers. Modern 
Beyond belonging for its cost and creature-type, Priest is also a substantial upgrade for Humans's current options. Rest in Peace is the best graveyard hate option, but it can't fit everywhere. In Humans' case, Surgical Extraction has 
combining Priest with Eldrazi Displacer to snipe every opposing creature. Just never, ever, try to flicker your own creatures (except for Priest).
The next contender is yet another Teferi with a static ability. Because everyone just loves Teferi, Time Raveler. In fairness, this new one is not at all as obviously onerous as "T3feri," and was made before Wizards realized their mistake.
At the start of its controller's untap step, when normally nothing happens and no player has priority, it phases in, unless otherwise specified. It's not entering the battlefield because it never left, so no triggers happen. It simply "exists" again. Wizards is explicitly 
then wiping the board on the opponent's attack step. And that can happen, but I skeptically ask how that's in any way better than just playing Jace, the Mind Sculptor?
However, outside of control decks, there is real potential. Getting to Careful Study over the course of a turn cycle is still very strong. And doing so gives Te4ri five loyalty to boot. I could easily see a velocity- or tempo-centric deck using Te4ri as a top end engine to help power them through the mid-game. It's nowhere near as good as Faithless Looting and so I don't think that Izzet Phoenix will suddenly return. However, something in a similar vein using Thing in the Ice and Crackling Drake is more plausible.
chance. However, See has a second mode. When cast from anywhere other than hand (read: exile, library, or graveyard), it draws three. Ancestral Recall is still a bargain at two mana. The trick is making it happen.
then draw a bunch of fuel. The catch is that flashing back Storm's cantrips are usually enough fuel as is, so I don't think See adds much. It doesn't hurt much either. I'd have to test, but intuitively I think See is too win-more to make an impact on Storm.
We saw some Burn decks 
Once opponents dealt with the first Lurrus, BGx would turn to Unearth to give the Nightmare Cat another of its nine lives and keep the value train rolling. This Unearth-Lurrus package is appealing in BGx for the same reason that Snapcaster Mage has always tempted Golgari mages with a blue splash, except that bringing back permanents tends to be more high-impact than recovering instants and sorceries. Without the companion restriction, mainboard Lurrus boasts an even higher ceiling, letting players recast the likes of Bloodbraid and Liliana.
Prowess decks without high-costed permanents will definitely want to run Lurrus in the sideboard, just as the Burn decks will. But there's less of a reason to go that route post-nerf, and Bedlam Reveler should make a compelling comeback in the coming weeks. In any case, while Mono-Red Prowess should remain a top-tier deck, I do believe 
Lurrus and Yorion may have occupied much of the discourse surrounding companions in Modern, but other such creatures were in fact printed! I expect these to suffer varying fates.
