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Testing Punishing Fire: Quantitative Data

Posted on May 14, 2019 by David Ernenwein

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And now it's time for everyone's favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. With 500 matches of Jund with and without Punishing Fire under my belt, I have developed a very strong opinion on unbanning the card. Today, I will reveal the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these data are meant to explore the impact of the tested card, but I can't test every single impact, metagame shift, or other permutation that could arise.

If you're just joining us, be sure to first read the Experimental Setup for this project.

Boilerplate Disclaimers

Contained are the results from my experiment. It is entirely possible that repetition will yield different results. This project models the effect that the banned card would have on the metagame as it stood when the experiment began. My result does not seek to be definitive, but rather provide a starting point for discussions on whether the card should be unbanned.

Meaning of Significance

When I refer to statistical significance, I really mean probability; specifically, the probability that the differences between a set of results are the result of the trial, and not of normal variance. Statistical tests are used to evaluate whether normal variance is behind the result, or if the experiment caused a noticeable change in result. This is expressed in confidence intervals determined by the p-value from the statistical test. In other words, statistical testing determines how confident researchers are that their results came from the test and not from chance. The assumption is typically "no change," or a null hypothesis of H=0.

If a test yields p > .01, the test is not significant, as we are less than 90% certain that the result isn't variance. If p < .01, then the result is significant at the 90% level. This is considered weakly significant and insufficiently conclusive by most academic standards; however, it can be acceptable when the n-value of the data set is low. While significant results are possible as few as 30 entries, it takes huge disparities to produce significant results, so sometimes 90% confidence is all that is achievable.

p < .05 is the 95% confidence interval, which is considered a significant result. It means that we are 95% certain that any variation in the data is the result of the experiment. Therefore, this is the threshold for accepting that the experiment is valid and models the real effect of the treatment on reality. Should p < .01, the result is significant at the 99% interval, which is as close to certainty as possible. When looking at the results, check the p-value to see if the data is significant.

Significance is highly dependent on the n-value of the data: in this case, how many games were recorded. The lower the n, the less likely it is that the result will be significant irrespective of the magnitude of the change. With an n of 30, a 10% change will be much less significant than that same change with n=1000. This is why the individual results frequently aren't significant, even when the overall result is very significant.

Overall Matchup Data

As a reminder and for those who've never seen one of these tests before, I played 500 total matches, with 250 per deck. I switched decks each match to level out any effect skill gains had on the data. Play/draw alternated each match, so both decks spent the same time on the draw and play. The test and control Jund lists can be found here.

As always, the overall match data comes first, and then I'll get into each matchup's results. Normally, I also include bonus data and interesting factoids, but I did record anything I thought was worth relating this time.

Total Control Wins: 119 (47.6%)
Total Test Wins: 127 (50.8%)

The data shows that adding Punishing Fire to Jund did not have a significant effect on its win percentage. p > .1 by a good margin, so the result is not even slightly significant. This means that the variation in the sample is most likely the result of normal variance and not my experiment.

I expected Punishing Fire to have a limited impact on Jund's win percentage because it is a very limited card. Far less efficient than Lightning Bolt, Fire is useful only because it is reusable. For that to be relevant, the game has to go long. The attraction has always been machine-gunning down opposing creatures, so I didn't expect there to be much effect outside of the creature matchups. Therefore, it would be on a deck-by-deck basis that the real impact became apparent. Of note, the smaller n-value for these results increases the threshold of significance.

Deck By Deck

Before getting into specifics, I have to note that actually testing the combo proved tricky, as there are two effects associated with playing Punishing Fire. The first: thanks to the aforementioned quirks of running the card, choices matter a lot more than previously. There was a lot of tension regarding which creature I pointed which kill spell at, as Fire is less mana-efficient than Lightning Bolt. My test deck had 2 Fatal Push, 3 Assassin's Trophy, and Liliana's downtick to kill creatures with 3 or more power. This meant I had considerable incentive to avoid killing anything that might be Fireable, which led to some odd play patterns.

The second: Punishing Fire is not a self-contained card. The only reason it has ever been threatening is Grove of the Burnwillows. Needing to run a full set of Groves puts some manageable strain on a deck's manabase, especially if that deck normally runs on fetches and shock lands. I compensated by running more black sources and no Stomping Ground.

What can't be compensated for is Grove giving opposing players life. While technically a positive since it triggers Fire (enabling the combo), if I didn't have Fire and needed the colored mana, the extra life quickly added up. When Tron was green/red and used Grove, the extra life didn't matter because Tron's creatures are huge. Jund's aren't so big, and in tight races that extra life might become a factor. Fortunately, it didn't come up too often.

UW Control

The UW versus Jund matchup is about attrition. Jund is designed to trade cards at value or better, while UW snows opponents under with card advantage. The matchup hinges on Jund sticking a threat that UW can't remove before that card advantage overcomes the attrition. Dark Confidant is Jund's best creature for this reason.

Total Control Wins: 25 (50%)
Total Test Wins: 33 (66%)

p > .05 by a very small margin. This means it's weakly significant. Because of the size of the data set, it would have taken one more test win or a control loss to make it absolutely significant.

I wasn't expecting the UW matchup to improve, since it doesn't run many creatures. However, Fire meant that UW could never actually grind out Jund on card advantage, especially in game 1. As long as Jund had a Fire in its graveyard, it had a threat and an answer in one card. Instead, game one was about baiting UW to use a Field of Ruin on not-Grove. If that happened, UW could realistically never win, because Fire would eventually kill all its win conditions. Teferi cannot survive repeated turns of Fire, and if Jund found two Fires, which was guaranteed in a long game, then Celestial Colonnade and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are also doomed.

This meant it was never possible game one for UW to beat the test deck through Teferi loops and sitting back; it had to take the initiative. Jund won the games that went extremely long as a result. The sideboard games were a different story, since the sideboard creatures (especially Geist of Saint Traft) and Rest in Peace completely alter the matchup dynamic by reducing Fire's effectiveness.

Mono-Green Tron

Tron and Jund have the longest-standing predator/prey relationship in Modern. Jund's been struggling against Tron since the beginning of Modern, and while Jund's tools have gotten better, Tron has adapted to obviate them. Thoughtseize remains critical for Jund, which was bad news for the test deck.

Total Control Wins: 24 (48%)
Total Test Wins: 19 (38%)

p > .1 means the results are not significant in any way, and are therefore not the result of the test.

Not surprisingly, incremental grinding over a long game was not very good against Tron. Fire never kills anything, and since it doesn't do as much damage as Bolt, it's not that useful racing, either. Also, Tron has Relic of Progenitus maindeck.

Bant Spirits

Spirits versus Jund is a strange matchup because the creature removal is almost an afterthought. The Drogskol Captain hexproof lock is devastating in game 1, and since Bant Spirits is all about finding and engaging that lock, it can be very hard for Jund to interact. Hand disruption is therefore Jund's most important disruption.

Total Control Wins: 25 (50%)
Total Test Wins: 25 (50%)

There was absolutely no difference between the test and control deck, so unsurprisingly the data isn't significant.

Fire doesn't alter Spirits chances of finding the lock naturally or via Collected Company, so it had the same odds as Bolt of being relevant. The maindeck Geists were key.

Humans

I expected Humans to be hit hard by Fire. It doesn't play any land interaction and most creatures have less than three toughness. Its saving graces are the disruption package, particularly Meddling Mage. However, Jund plays so many answers that it should be able to overwhelm Mage.

Total Control Wins: 26 (52%)
Total Test Wins: 32 (64%)

The data narrowly misses being weakly significant, at p > .1. Again, one fewer control win or another test win and it would have been weakly significant.

I was not expecting this result. The assumption was that Fire combo decimates creature decks. The problem was that Jund had trouble assembling the combo reliably in time to crush Humans. Also, because of the aforementioned tension with removal spells, I couldn't just kill a turn one Noble Hierarch or Champion of the Parish every game. This let Humans start snowballing, and made games harder. When the combo did come together early, it was crushing. When not, Humans had the time it needed to be Humans, and the removal proved stretched too thin to keep up.

Ironworks

Ironworks was capable of winning on turn three. It was also primarily made up of cantrips. Thus, Jund was never safe, no matter how much hand disruption it had. The only hope was to stick threats, race, and pray. Thanks to Engineered Explosives, Scavenging Ooze wasn't effective disruption. Post-board Surgical Extraction was decent, but not outstanding.

Total Control Wins: 19 (38%)
Total Test Wins: 18 (36%)

The data is not significant, which is unsurprising since the control and test are only one match apart.

Just as with Tron, Fire didn't do anything critical to the matchup, so it had no real effect.

A Wrinkle...

The matchup data shows that Punishing Fire did not have a meaningful effect on Jund's overall win percentage. Since it could not muster a significant result against Humans, the matchup where it should have been most devastating, this would suggest that it is an unban candidate. The supposed machine-gun effect appears to be overblown.

However, that isn't the whole story. This was the most miserable test I've ever run. There are a number of gameplay and intangible reasons that I'll get to next week, but they pale in comparison to this test taking longer than any other. I started testing in early November and didn't finish until March. This was not because I had to work around availability gaps. The individual games took measurably longer than ever before, and dragged the whole process out. This isn't entirely unexpected given experience from Legacy, but in Modern, it suggests that Fire is more similar to Sensei's Diving Top than to Splinter Twin or Chrome Mox.

...In Time

I stopped using MTGO for these tests when the chess clock altered results. A player timing out is not the same as him losing the game. I stopped timing the matches altogether when draws required rematches and lengthened the test. We play every game until its conclusion, and don't concede until the game is actually lost; being 0% to win isn't quite the same as actually losing. The former means that UW is up too many cards to plausibly fight through. The latter means they're upticking Jace, and you don't and will never have an answer. The exception is that as soon as combo decks demonstrate a deterministic loop, we concede.

This meant that games dragged on because Jund was rarely actually out. It could always draw another Grove or Fire and work its way back in. It was also rare for the other deck to be out, since a single Fire and Grove aren't much on their own. As a result, the games with Firey Jund took longer than the control games. I suspected this would be the case during exploratory testing, and kept track of how long each match took.

Average Control Match Time: 27.28 minutes
Average Test Match Time: 31.97 minutes

The test matches took roughly five minutes longer on average. This may not seem like much, but I want to emphasize that these are the average times, between widely different types of deck. As you can see in the result printout below, there was considerable fluctuation in the data.

The p value of the time data is incredibly small, so it is strongly significant at the 99% level. As an explanation, when internal variance is very high, the threshold for significance drops.

UW Control

UW Control takes a while to win, and the matchup is incredibly grindy. Naturally, it takes a lot of time.

Average Control Match Time: 31.17 minutes
Average Test Match Time: 40.71 minutes
Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 2
Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 7

The data is significant at the 99% level, p < .01. Fire and Grove's inclusion did increase the length of the matchup by the observed amount.

Again, Jund was never out of game 1; so as long as it still had a Grove in-deck, it could win the game. That forced UW to try and race Jund, and maindeck UW's not good at racing. The longest match I played in the whole test was Test Match 38, a ~95 minute epic where the roughly hour-long game one was decided by UW decking itself. Jund actually lost that match, because games 2-3 UW slammed down and protected Geist on turn three.

Mono-Green Tron

Tron games are generally fast, since Tron's trying to do its thing turn three every game. If it does, the game is almost always over shortly afterward. If it doesn't, the game still needs to end quickly, or Tron will find what it was missing.

Average Control Match Time: 23.78 minutes
Average Test Match Time: 26.05 minutes
Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 0
Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 0

The data is weakly significant, at p < .01. The result is not conclusive, but also cannot be discounted. The time that Jund spends durdling with Grove and Fire seems to add up even in matches where it's not a priority.

Bant Spirits

Spirits games are ones of extremes. Either Spirits quickly locks Jund out, Jund guts Spirits's hand and then board, or we see a prolonged grindfest were the last threat wins.

Average Control Match Time: 27.04 minutes
Average Test Match Time: 30.98 minutes
Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 1
Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 2

The data is strongly significant, at p < .05. It is very close to 99%, but that's gravey compared to being 95% confidant. Normally, Jund runs out of removal before Spirits runs out of creatures. However, that couldn't happen game one, so the grinding stretched on and on.

Humans

Humans is naturally a fast deck. Jund is seeking to string out the match. This typically means that Humans' wins are very fast, while Jund's take a long time.

Average Control Match Time: 25.4 minutes
Average Test Match Time: 29.92 minutes
Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 0
Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 1

The data is strongly significant, at p < .01. This test yielded a lot of 99% confidence intervals. The tendency of Jund's wins to take longer got worse. This was exacerbated by Grove's life prolonging a number of normal games and costing Jund several races.

Ironworks

Ironworks was the most extreme individual match. Ironworks is capable of demonstrating an unbreakable loop on turn three, but actually getting to that point can take awhile. This matchup had the second most matches go past normal round time and the two shortest matches. The shortest two were eight-minute stompings, one win for control Jund and one loss for Firey Jund, both times after the loser mulliganed to oblivion both games.

Average Control Match Time: 29.02 minutes
Average Test Match Time: 32.2 minutes
Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 2
Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 5

The data is weakly significant, at p < 0.1.

In fairness to Fire, not all the increase in long matches was its fault. Sometimes, Ironworks can't assemble an actual loop, and has to burn through its deck like Eggs to win.

Whole Story

The end result of my data collection is that there's no evidence that Punishing Fire would boost Jund to dangerous levels. It didn't impact any matchup in a significant way. However, it did have a strongly significant impact on match length, giving it implications for tournament logistics. This means there's a lot more to Fire than meets the eye, and power alone isn't sufficient in discussing whether it is an unban consideration. The intangibles are critical in assessing the card. Join me next week for those qualitative results and my conclusions from this test.

A Deep Dive into Ice Age

Posted on May 13, 2019May 12, 2019 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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It seems inevitable. A friend, co-worker, or random visitor to your LGS mentions they have a stack of Magic cards from when they used to play years ago. If you’re like me, the first question you ask is, “what years did you play?”

“I don’t remember. Maybe 1994 or 1995?”

Your mouth starts to water. There’s a potential this person has Dual Lands, Legends, and The Dark cards in their collection. They could also have stacks of Revised Demonic Tutors, Lightning Bolts, and Sol Rings in their collection.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lightning Bolt

You arrange a date, get together, and eagerly start sifting through their collection only to find a stack of Fallen Empires, Homelands, and Ice Age cards. Bummer.

There’s no need to despair, however. In fact, there are some components to these sets that are very appreciable, if not profitable. In past articles, I’ve written about the merits of Fourth Edition and Homelands. This week I want to touch on another under-appreciated set: Ice Age.

Ice Age: Fast Facts

Before jumping into the finance of Ice Age (which is more interesting than you’d think), here are some quick facts to provide background to this set.

Ice Age is Magic’s sixth expansion and was released early June 1995. It came out shortly after Magic’s first explosion in popularity, which is why so many older players have a stack of it in their bulk.
The popularity of Magic during this time led to the massive print run for this set. Crystal Keep has numbers for Ice Age, but the site was published before Ice Age was taken off the printing press. All we know is that there are at least 202,000 copies of each Ice Age rare, 606,000 of each uncommon, and 2,047,000 of each common. Those numbers are gigantic!
Ice Age contains 383 cards, with an interesting split of 121 rares, 121 uncommons, and 121 commons. This distribution means opening a given rare in a booster pack is much harder while opening certain commons and uncommons easier. Contrast this with the distribution in War of the Spark: 53 rares, 80 uncommons, and 101 commons.
Ice Age was the first expansion to have foil wrappers—finally, boosters couldn’t be searched anymore! It was also the first expansion to have a prerelease, in Toronto, from June 2-4, 1995.
There are some amusing misprints in the set, though none are readily obvious. For example, Johtull Wurm refers to a creature named Johtull Worm in its text box. Obviously, this is a misprint, but imagine arguing with your friends that the -2/-1 fizzles because there are no Johtull Worms in play! Another funny one is on Balduvian Shaman, where the first word, “permanantly” is misspelled!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Johtull Wurm

Reser

There was an error retrieving a chart for Balduvian Shaman

Onto the Finance Part

Enough history lessons—I’ll shift focus to the relevant financial information about this set. After all, many of us have dug through Ice Age bulk at one time or another. The print run of the set was so huge that you can still purchase booster boxes, 24 years after printing, for $450.

Despite this, there are still some important facts you should know when it comes to Ice Age. I’ll concede there are not many valuable cards in the set—but did you know that Card Kingdom has 123 Ice Age cards on their buylist? The cards on their list ranges from Necropotence, the card they pay highest for ($5.50) all the way down to Yavimaya Gnats, for which they offer $0.06. In fact 44 of the 123 cards on their buylist—36—are commons and uncommons. Ten of these cards buylist for at least a buck in store credit (Dance of the Dead, Glacial Chasm, Snow-covered Mountain, Swords to Plowshares, Snow-covered Island, Pyroblast, Zuran Orb, Mystic Remora, Nature's Lore, and Fyndhorn Elves.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dance of the Dead

If that doesn’t motivate you to pick through your Ice Age chaff, maybe this will: there are 50 Reserved List cards in Ice Age! Nearly half the rares in the set are on the Reserved List! Granted, most of these cards are terrible or ridiculously confusing, but it still represents a stack of cards that will never see a reprint. Sorry, Ice Cauldron fans—the copies out there now are the only ones that will ever exist.

As for the cards that are playable, there are a few with serious upside. Illusions of Grandeur is a Reserved List card famous for its combo with Donate. The deck known as “Trix” was a popular Extended list that sought to give opponents control of the blue enchantment; when they couldn’t afford that crazy cumulative upkeep, they’d lose 20 life (and therefore the game). I don’t see Illusions of Grandeur making a sudden comeback, but the iconic card will climb gradually over time. And you never know when WOTC may print a superior version of Donate and cause a momentary spike in the Reserved List card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Illusions of Grandeur

Altar of Bone is another Reserved List card worth a second look. This card is sort of like a vastly inferior version of Survival of the Fittest. Except Survival is a $100 card and Altar is a $5. Card. Altar doesn’t really see much play, but I wonder if it’s one new card away from becoming broken. At just two mana, it could even break into Legacy should the right combo be printed. If that never happens, your downside is still basically zero.

Want to stay away from the Reserved List? Take a look at Dance of the Dead. It’s a pseudo-Animate Dead with a minor drawback. Except Animate Dead has been reprinted and Dance of the Dead hasn’t, probably because the card is so complex. I mean…look at that oracle text! Yuck!

“Enchant creature card in a graveyard. When Dance of the Dead enters the battlefield, if it’s on the battlefield, it loses “enchant creature card in a graveyard” and gains “enchant creature put onto the battlefield with Dance of the Dead.” Put enchanted creature card onto the battlefield tapped under your control and attach Dance of the Dead to it. When Dance of the Dead leaves the battlefield, that creature’s controller sacrifices it. Enchanted creature gets +1/+1 and doesn’t untap during its controller’s untap step. At the beginning of the upkeep of enchanted creature’s controller, that player may pay 1B. If the player does, untap that creature.”

Lastly, I like two cumulative upkeep cards for their upside potential: Mystic Remora and Glacial Chasm. The former was never reprinted in paper and the latter was reprinted only once, in From the Vault: Realms. Both see play in different formats: Mystic Remora is popular in Commander and Glacial Chasm is played in Legacy. As long as they dodge reprint in Modern Horizons, which I suppose is not a guarantee, then these should see gradual upside over time.

Wrapping It Up

At first glance, Ice Age is an over-printed, under-demanded set. Who wants to open a booster pack only to find their rare is Winter's Chill? But despite its apparent ubiquity, there are still many reasons not to skip over bulk Ice Age cards. The set is filled with commons and uncommons that can be buylisted for above bulk. It also has fifty Reserved List cards, which are always worth tossing in a separate box. Don’t forget set symbols did not connote rarity back in 1995, so you may find Reserved List rares in amongst the commons and uncommons.

Most importantly, there are relevant cards in the set. The Pain Lands are played in Eldrazi lists and would be far more valuable if they hadn’t been reprinted so much. Mystic Remora is the 25^th most included blue card according to EDH REC’s database. While some of these lists may be aged, I suspect it’s still an easy inclusion for its card-drawing power. Zuran Orb and Glacial Chasm are nothing to scoff at, and both are uncommons. And let’s not forget about one of the most notorious cards ever to be printed, which first appeared in Ice Age: Brainstorm.

With cards like these littered throughout the set, Ice Age may actually be one of the more enjoyable sets to pick. And while you’re digging for these gems, you can revel in the craziness of some of this set’s cards. Game of Chaos, Demonic Consultation, Marton Stromgald, Chromatic Armor…who came up with these cards?! I can’t guarantee you’ll make a ton of money picking through Ice Age bulk, but you may just find some surprisingly whacky cards that give you a smile!

…

Sigbits

While it doesn’t boast a high buylist price right now, Demonic Consultation was bought out not long ago. It’s an instant spell that costs one mana that lets you deck yourself—this combines well with cards that win you the game if your library is empty. While nothing came of it, you never know when this one could spike again. It’s also viable in casual play and functions as a budget Demonic Tutor.
It seems like foils and Masterpieces are all over Card Kingdom’s hotlist these days, headlined by foil Force of Will ($300). Innistrad foil Liliana of the Veil is also up there ($125) along with Mythic Edition Teferi, Hero of Dominaria ($170).
Worldwake Jace, the Mind Sculptor is seeing buylist levels I’ve not seen in a long time. Currently, Card Kingdom pays $115 for the card on their hotlist. There may even be further upside if the Planeswalker sees a rise in play once Modern Horizons is released.

Two Weeks In: War of the Spark Tech Review

Posted on May 10, 2019 by Jordan Boisvert

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It's been half a month since War of the Spark went live on Magic Online, and we're already seeing the myriad effects it's having on Modern—heck, on all non-rotating formats. But of course, being Modern Nexus, we'll focus on just the one!

While I enjoy the Friday writing slot, it occasionally has its detriments. In this case, other content creators have gotten to the Online decklists first, and mostly covered the breakout decks. They've understandably omitted some of the finer details, or smaller tech updates to existing strategies. We'll cover those and a few under-the-radar brews in today's piece.

Standout War Decks

For those of you not up on their reading, yesterday's article from Adam Yurchick does a great job of reviewing the new strategies that have Modern buzzing. They are, in list form:

Coretapper Control
Mono-Red Prison
Mono-White Legends
Niv-Mizzet Reborn
Finale Vizier*
Finale Phoenix*
Immense Arcanist
UW Narset*
Pitch Blue
Time Raveler Tempo*
Vivian Pod*

The decks marked with an asterisk denote strategies that have not quite proven themselves yet, or aren't so different from existing decks in Modern. I've still included them in the list so as not to omit anything from Yurchick's piece.

Pitch Blue strikes me as the most exciting deck in the collection, wielding both Disrupting Shoal and Day's Undoing alongside Narset, Parter of Veils to refill on cards while stripping opponents of their resources. You're welcome, Modern Nexus readers!

Finally, two higher-profile strategies from War are Neoform Griselbrand and a new spin on UW Control featuring the Teferi-Knowledge Pool combo. I don't think the former is close to as format-warping as early pundits always seem to claim when a new combo deck rolls around, and the latter seems to me like a worse version of straight UW Control, although 1-2 Pool could become a solid tech option should the deck, for some reason, decide it wants 4 Teferi, Time Raveler at some point in the future.

Tech Updates

While less flashy, the subtle tech upgrades received by many existing Modern decks are just as critical to the metagame's new shape. Blast Zone stands out as the most splashable War card, finding its way into Mono-Red Prison, Dredge, GR Eldrazi, and UW Control among the less obvious homes. And Izzet Phoenix continues its apparent cooldown, putting a single copy in the most recent Modern event's high placings and occupying a mere 4 slots in the last Challenge's Top 32. Innovation hasn't totally escaped that deck, either, with some lists adopting Finale of Promise and others running Dovin, Hand of Control in the sideboard.

Ashiok, Dream Render as Multi-Purpose Role Player

I slammed the new walkers as being pulled in too many strategic directions to see much competitive play, and continue to eat my foot as case-in-point example Ashiok, Dream Render continuously pops up in blue decks. Its two abilities are apparently relevant enough in Modern that combining them makes it a potent tool for many matchups.

Grixis Shadow, by ANDREAS_MUELLER (6th, Modern Challenge #11861754)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow

4 Gurmag Angler

3 Snapcaster Mage

4 Street Wraith

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

2 Dismember

3 Fatal Push

1 Lightning Bolt

4 Stubborn Denial

2 Temur Battle Rage

4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

1 Faithless Looting

2 Inquisition of Kozilek

1 Serum Visions

4 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Blood Crypt

4 Bloodstained Mire

1 Island

4 Polluted Delta

3 Scalding Tarn

1 Steam Vents

1 Swamp

2 Watery Grave

60 Cards

Sideboard

3 Ashiok, Dream Render

1 Fatal Push

2 Abrade

2 Ceremonious Rejection

2 Collective Brutality

2 Disdainful Stroke

1 Kolaghan's Command

2 Ravenous Trap

UW Midrange, by GODS_SHADOW (8th, Modern Challenge #11861754)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage

2 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

2 Teferi, Time Raveler

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere

2 Search for Azcanta

Instants

4 Cryptic Command

2 Logic Knot

4 Path to Exile

2 Spell Snare

Sorceries

2 Oust

4 Serum Visions

Lands

2 Blast Zone

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Field of Ruin

4 Flooded Strand

2 Ghost Quarter

2 Glacial Fortress

2 Hallowed Fountain

4 Island

2 Plains

Sideboard

2 Ashiok, Dream Render

2 Dovin's Veto

2 Gideon of the Trials

3 Rest in Peace

3 Stony Silence

3 Supreme Verdict

A repeatable Tormod's Crypt is nothing to sneeze at against graveyard decks, and Ashiok even boasts self-mill capabilities, as the exile clause only affects opponents. But the real winner is its static ability, which affects most Modern decks by virtue of everyone utilizing searching; the decks without fetchlands tend to be digging up critical components like Urza's Mine anyway.

Neoform, but Not for Griselbrand

While Neoform's loudest applications thus far have been with the 7/7, the card is starting to pop up in different shells.

Neoform Vizier, by ZIPPIESTBARD (5-0)

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Devoted Druid

3 Duskwatch Recruiter

1 Eternal Witness

1 Ezuri, Renegade Leader

1 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

1 Llanowar Elves

4 Noble Hierarch

1 Scavenging Ooze

1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty

1 Tireless Tracker

4 Vizier of Remedies

1 Walking Ballista

Planeswalkers

1 Vivien, Champion of the Wilds

Sorceries

4 Eldritch Evolution

4 Neoform

4 Postmortem Lunge

Lands

1 Breeding Pool

1 Dryad Arbor

3 Forest

3 Horizon Canopy

3 Misty Rainforest

1 Plains

3 Razorverge Thicket

1 Temple Garden

4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Burrenton Forge-Tender

1 Chameleon Colossus

2 Deputy of Detention

1 Eidolon of Rhetoric

3 Path to Exile

1 Reflector Mage

3 Unified Will

2 Worship

Eldritch Evolution and Postmortem Lunge are no strangers to Vizier combo, as they both put combo pieces into play. But generally, they are run in smaller numbers alongside sets of Chord of Calling or Collected Company. Neoform Vizier maxes out on each sorcery and supplements them with Neoform, an Eldritch Evolution that's one critical mana cheaper.

That mana's a game-changer when it comes to casting multiple spells in a turn. Neoformcan tribute a creature to search up a combo piece, then pilots can cast Lunge their tributed creature with the spare mana to go off early. This play is also possible with Eldritch, and even works with multiple creatures of the same mana cost in that case. But as it costs more, it's slower to execute. In any case, the Postmortem plan becomes hyper-reliable with so many functional evolutions in the deck, so maxing out on each piece makes sense at this stage in the deckbuilding process.

UG Evolve, by CAVEDAN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Cloudfin Raptor

4 Experiment One

3 Pelt Collector

4 Young Wolf

2 Sidisi's Faithful

4 Strangleroot Geist

4 Voice of Resurgence

1 Avatar of the Resolute

1 Deputy of Detention

1 Evolution Sage

1 Renegade Rallier

Instants

3 Pongify

3 Rapid Hybridization

Sorceries

4 Neoform

Lands

4 Botanical Sanctum

2 Breeding Pool

1 Dryad Arbor

1 Forest

1 Hallowed Fountain

3 Horizon Canopy

4 Misty Rainforest

1 Temple Garden

4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Aven Mindcensor

2 Damping Sphere

1 Eidolon of Rhetoric

1 Evolutionary Leap

1 Gaddock Teeg

1 Geist of Saint Traft

1 Kataki, War's Wage

2 Knight of Autumn

1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade

1 Path to Exile

1 Reflector Mage

2 Scavenging Ooze

From the man who brought us the Niv-Mizzet Reborn deck mentioned above comes UG Evolve, a strategy format newcomers have wanted to work for as long as I can remember. The only War creature here is Evolution Sage, which increases the counter count on controlled creatures. Evolve's other buggers either come down cheap and grow larger as the board develops, or create large bodies to enable the evolving threats. Undying creatures work especially well for this, including honorary Undying creature Voice of Resurgence, and especially alongside Pongify to blow them up at will and net a beefy 3/3 in the process. Following Raptor with Young Wolf and hitting Wolf with Pongify, for instance, grows Raptor to 3 power for its first attack.

The new set primarily contributes to Evolve via Neoform, which unlike similar cards such as Eldritch Evolution, is cheap enough at two mana to wield aggressively. Instead of trading creatures for a 3/3, as Pongify does, Neoform chains them into in-deck creatures, giving the deck a toolbox aspect and helping it access Evolution Sage. This new piece of tech may be what the deck needed to at last become a solid Tier 3 contender in Modern.

Meta Slayers

We're also seeing some decks that take advantage of the direction Modern's metagame has been heading lately by employing surgical plans of attack.

Just Two Goyfs for Me, Thanks

Zoo is far from a new strategy in Modern, but it doesn't have close to the pedigree it used to. JUANPABLOALCALDE had something to say about Zoo's fall from grace, fleshing out a suite of Wild Nacatls with some of Modern's most potent hosers, tension with Tarmogoyf be damned.

Antimeta Zoo, by JUANPABLOALCALDE (5-0)

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl

4 Narnam Renegade

4 Grim Lavamancer

4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

2 Tarmogoyf

3 Magus of the Moon

1 Knight of Autumn

Artifacts

3 Relic of Progenitus

2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dromoka's Command

4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

3 Tribal Flames

2 Declaration in Stone

Lands

4 Arid Mesa

1 Blood Crypt

1 Dryad Arbor

1 Forest

1 Mountain

1 Plains

1 Sacred Foundry

1 Steam Vents

1 Stomping Ground

1 Temple Garden

4 Windswept Heath

4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Knight of Autumn

1 Magus of the Moon

1 Relic of Progenitus

4 Ancient Grudge

2 Burrenton Forge-Tender

2 Gaddock Teeg

3 Ravenous Trap

Two Goyfs in a Zoo deck? What cruel brew is this? Anitmeta Zoo prefers to disrupt opponents with hosers than rely extensively on the sheer bulk of Tarmogoyf. It still includes the beater in some capacity; there are few better ways to chase a deceased Wild Nacatl, after all, and Antimeta Zoo runs plenty of card types to keep the Lhurgoyf nice and large. But it's got different priorities, its two-drop slot occupied by other beasts.

In today's metagame, that beast is Eidolon of the Great Revel. Hosing myriad combo decks as well as the established top dog, Izzet Phoenix, Eidolon puts the hurt on anyone chaining cantrips. Grim Lavamancer is also run at 4 here, providing free wins against small creature decks. Magus of the Moon rounds out the disruptive creature suite by punishing greedy manabases and Tron. Should these creatures prove ineffective in a given matchup, they can be looted away to Smuggler's Copter, or else used to crew the vehicle.

Besides Tribal Flames making an appearance as a closer and removal spell, Antimeta Zoo packs Declaration in Stone, a good indication that its pilot knew what he wanted to beat. Kitchen Finks, Prized Amalgam, and Arclight Phoenix are all great targets for the instant, and Declaration makes sense over Path given the deck's many Moon effects.

...And Keep Your Fetchlands, Too

As Modern's cardpool increases, players discover new color combinations that can work. Fatal Push, for example, enabled midrange and control decks outside of red or white, the other colors housing cheap removal options. This next deck takes that principle to the extreme, making the case that blue already has all the tools it could need.

Mono-Blue Thing, by BENNYHILLZ (5-0)

Creatures

4 Thing in the Ice

4 Snapcaster Mage

Enchantments

3 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Cryptic Command

1 Logic Knot

2 Mana Leak

4 Opt

1 Remand

1 Spell Pierce

2 Spell Snare

1 Surgical Extraction

4 Thought Scour

1 Unsummon

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

2 Set Adrift

Lands

4 Blast Zone

1 Field of Ruin

17 Island

Sideboard

2 Surgical Extraction

2 Ceremonious Rejection

2 Devastation Tide

1 Dispel

1 Hurkyl's Recall

1 Negate

2 Tormod's Crypt

2 Vedalken Shackles

2 Vendilion Clique

BENNYHILLZ is known as one of UW Control's earliest proponents, and here he re-invents the wheel again with Mono-Blue Thing. His is a control deck ditching traditional sweepers for the creature that single-handedly allows Izzet Phoenix to tangle with other creature decks, and swapping out fancy manlands for a full set of Blast Zone. The above list marks BENNYHILLZ's second published 5-0 on this list.

The biggest drawback to mono-blue has always been its lack of removal options; we've seen URx, URx, and UWx succeed in Modern for this reason. But between Thing in the Ice and Blast Zone, Mono-Blue Thing has plenty of ways to answer even swarms of ground units. Out of the sideboard, Vedalken Shackles becomes another reliable option to turn the creature matchup on its head and reward players for investing so thoroughly in basic Island. Before all those engines come online, Set Adrift and the decidedly unexciting Unsummon (chosen over Vapor Snag for its applications with one's own Snapcasters) do in a pinch.

New Harvests in Modern

The format had congealed around Phoenix and Dredge before War dropped, but all that seems to be changing now. Not only have new brews and tech choices surfaced, the metagame as a whole seems to be shaking out differently. Here's hoping it never stops surprising us!

War of the Spark Standard: SCG Richmond and MCQ Season

Posted on May 9, 2019May 9, 2019 by Christopher O'Berry

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SCG Richmond marks the first high-level event since War of the Spark's release, and we're already seeing a huge impact on Standard. Typically after set releases, a coinciding SCG Open will light a fire under players to try out new cards and acts as the first data point competitive players can draw conclusions from.

For many players, aggro decks seem to be the play for these early-in-the-format events. Adjusting midrange and control decks is often very difficult for an unknown field, and playing an efficient suite of threats is likely better than trying to pack your deck full of answers. This Standard Open was no different.

Mono-Red Is Still Really Good

Mono-Red was definitely the deck to beat for this tournament, as many people expected. It was probably the best deck in the format before WAR's release and will be the front-runner for many players this MCQ season. It's fast, efficient, and has a solid game against nearly every other deck.

Not too much has changed for the list, with most of the 75 still intact from the last iteration of Standard. Standouts here from WAR are the additions of two key red planeswalkers: Chandra, Fire Artisan and Tibalt, Rakish Instigator.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Fire Artisan

While many other Mono-Red players opted for Experimental Frenzy in her stead, Chandra presented a difficult-to-answer card advantage engine that doesn't punish you for having cards in hand when it resolves, at the cost of the explosive (but inconsistent) plays Frenzy can provide off the top of the deck. Additionally, for decks that aren't packing clean answers like Vraska's Contempt or Assassin's Trophy, attacking into her and taking anywhere from 5 to 7 damage is often backbreaking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tibalt, Rakish Instigator

For decks that have incidental life gain on their spells, like Esper Control has in Absorb, Vraska's Contempt, or Moment of Craving, Tibalt removes those clauses and even applies pressure on the board.

Speaking of Esper decks, control and midrange variants had a half-decent showing at the event as well. As I said before, they were likely not tuned to deal with the aggressive metagame, but another problem exists for Control strategies.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Time Raveler

Esper and Bant Midrange decks came to party over the weekend, presenting Teferi, Time Raveler as a huge problem for reactive strategies. Without an on-time Thought Erasure or Duress, a resolved Time Raveler is a huge problem. From Esper Midrange, issues like draw step plus discard spell, nullifying countermagic, and what at times feels like specifically good removal spells make it difficult to beat. Bant Midrange benefits from it by essentially making all of their creatures uncounterable. In tandem with Vivien, Champion of the Wilds, every threat can be deployed without fear of interaction.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vivien, Champion of the Wilds

Vivien, Champion of the Wilds strikes me as an important planeswalker going forward. She's seeing play in Bant, Gruul, and Sultai builds as a consistent way to put threats into play, with a relevant tick-up as well. It offers card advantage at a lower CMC compared to the original Vivien Reid, but there may be a bit of space in decks to run both. Adding flash to cards like Deputy of Detention is also just horrifying.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nexus of Fate

Finally, we have to talk about Nexus of Fate. Some call it a design mistake, and others will call it a necessary evil of the format. Despite your opinion, there are still many players looking to play Simic Nexus. While it didn't quite crack the top eight at this event, you'll find four copies of the deck made top 16, and are likely just in need of some slight adjustments to not get pushed out of the early game by aggressive strategies. Root Snare doesn't quite get the job done against a grip full of Lightning Strikes and Shocks. That being said, it won't take much for these decks to start adapting to the meta.

Should this deck see more success in the future, cards like Unmoored Ego and Thief of Sanity will become more important, and I'll be looking to these with great interest going into this weekend and beyond.

The SCG Richmond Standard Classic

While many of these archetypes were knocked out of the main event, looking at Classic decklists is still worthwhile.

This top eight tells a different story for the format altogether. Mono-Red is noticeably absent (even from the top 16 decks) and we see some more decks that may be off the beaten path. Note that this tournament takes place the Sunday after the main event, giving players an opportunity to adjust their lists. More importantly, it gave them a chance to deal with the Mono-Red menace. Notable decks found here are Grixis Control, Azorius Aggro, Mardu Judith, and Naya Feather.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God

While Esper seemed like the premier control choice for the Open, the Classic saw Grixis Control take the top slot. The new Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God is an absolute house and can win games on its own. Getting to resolve it and having it stick is the tricky part. This list was able to take down the Classic, sporting a full playset of the powerful planeswalker, as well as its Core 19 iteration, Nicol Bolas, the Ravager.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deputy of Detention

Azorius Aggro, which is really just the tried and true White Weenie from the last standard with a light splash for Deputy of Detention and some countermagic, looks like a nice place to be. Gideon Blackblade finds a home here, offering relevant keywords and possible spot removal for difficult permanents when games go long.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Judith, the Scourge Diva

Mardu Judith plays like an aristocrats deck, sacrificing and recurring cards like Gutterbones and Dreadhorde Butcher for value. Sorin, Vengeful Bloodlord makes it all come together with its reanimate ability, and will be an interesting card to watch should this archetype find its footing going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Feather, the Redeemed

As if there wasn't enough hype around Feather already, here's a solid decklist to really prop up her price going forward. If this card is not removed on sight, it can be absolutely devastating. Additionally, its base stats as a 3/4 with flying put a damper on a lot of threats around that spot on the curve. Another powerhouse that saw a bit of hype during spoiler season is Dreadhorde Arcanist. It slots perfectly into this deck with its spell recursion ability and blocks most one- and two-drops profitably.

These decks likely will show up at MCQs in some number, so getting familiar with them might be to your benefit.

Mythic Championship Qualifiers

With the new MCQ system firmly in place, players of all skill levels will be looking to take home the top spots at stores the world over, and that will drive a lot more demand on Standard cards in the next few weeks. Given SCG Richmond's preliminary results, I expect the majority of the field to be on Mono-Red or some Esper variant. If you're not taking either of these decks into consideration when deciding on your registered 75, you may be in for a rough Saturday.

As we are still very early into this format, there's still a bit of room to brew and explore new cards and revisit some old favorites. Here are the cards I expect to be snapped up by players looking to take down these events.

Potential movers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risk Factor

Risk Factor was in many Mono-Red lists over the weekend, but not all lists were adapting full playsets. This will likely see play as a full playset in every burn 75. Outside of Experimental Frenzy, it is one of the most difficult cards to deal with for Control and Midrange decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Time Raveler

As I said before, this card is incredibly tough to deal with and is often backed up with countermagic. I think we'll be seeing a lot more of this card going forward from several decks. Esper Midrange utilizes it best in my opinion, but don't sleep on Bant Midrange either.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Ineffable

Many Esper Control decks opted to Liliana, Dreadhorde General as big planeswalker to close out the game, but Ugin was also pretty popular as well. A resolved Liliana will probably result in a bunch of zombie tokens on your end, with the occasional bit of card draw, but Ugin the Ineffable may serve this role a bit better.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset, Parter of Veils

Many pro players are heralding this as the new hotness in eternal formats, and for good reason. It shuts off any cantrips from your opponent and digs for answers at the same time. For control matchups, resolving one of these first is extremely important. Like Leovold, Emissary of Trest and Notion Thief before it, this new Narset will demand an answer, and the metagame will have to adjust to deal with it. Many insiders are very interested in this card (myself included) and are looking to get in sooner rather than later.

Bear in mind, this is an uncommon printed in one of the most popular sets, if not the most popular set of all time. If we can expect a similar trajectory to Fatal Push, expect this card to be on the rise and approaching $5 price point soon enough.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Growth-Chamber Guardian

Growth-Chamber Guardian is an incredibly efficient creature. It provides card advantage and consistent pressure on your opponent, something that many green midrange decks will need to compete in the metagame. The price of this card will likely be attached to the success of decks playing Incubation Druid and Vivien, Champion of the Wilds.

Bring It On Home

The metagame will take a while to settle out, and I expect things to diversify a bit more than they currently are with the new influx of War of the Spark cards. There are still a lot of brews to explore in the coming weeks, and it will likely take a while to solve this format with such a deep card pool.

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

Insider: Investing in WAR Mythics: A Primer

Posted on May 8, 2019May 10, 2019 by Kyle Rusciano

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Welcome back, folks.

Magic Online finance sure is changing. Drafting now is cheaper than it has been in six years since the EV of the events is significantly higher than it has been. War of the Spark's set value is still over $100, and that even includes some rares still maintaining value over 5 tix and some uncommons like Narset, Parter of Veils commanding prices over 1 tix. If you want to draft this set, Magic Online is a great place to do so.

As tired as we all are of hearing the word "mythic", I fear I'll have to say the word a lot today because now is definitely the appropriate time to invest in War of the Spark mythics. As Matt and I have discussed in our articles over the past few weeks, Redemption is now the chief driver of mythic prices. Now that War product is being pumped into the MTGO marketplace, mythic prices are declining and heading toward their floors.

What I'd like to do today is twofold. First I want to look back to the price pattern behavior of Ravnica Allegiance mythics to inform us of what we'll be seeing with War of the Spark mythics. Second I'll go over some of my favorite War mythic speculation targets.

I. When do Mythics Bottom Out?

Mythics bottom out EARLY now, much earlier than they did in the past. In fact, mythics will now experience two lows going forward. The first comes soon after release, the second comes after a set's redemption period ends. Savvy investors will be able to capitalize on both of these lows.

Below is a table cataloging relevant data for Ravnica Allegiance mythics. First, we need to focus on the "Time after Release" column, which indicates how long after a set's release did this card's price bottom out.

Note that I'm going to start from a set's release on MTGO, which is a tad earlier than its release in paper. For Ravnica Allegiance I'm going to be counting from January 17th, when sealed was released. For War of the Spark, we should count from April 25th. Also note that the lows and highs are "investment" lows and highs, which means that you could buy and sell these cards at that price for at least a week.

As investors what we are looking for are patterns, and there are quite a few here to digest. It's notable that the majority exhibited a trend upward that lasted for two to eight weeks. On average, if you bought a mythic in early February and sold in mid-March, you would have made money. Angel of Grace and Domri, Chaos Bringer were minor exceptions that made barely any price movement throughout the Ravnica Allegiance season. Hydroid Krasis was the big exception, as it climbed at lightning speed right at release in the wake of strong tournament performances and then slowly tapered off until late April.

For those of you keeping track at home, May 2nd was the one week mark for War of the Spark, and May 9th will be the two-week mark. If WAR follows RNA, we are right now in that sweet spot for investing.

II. Expected Returns on Investment

As a category, mythic rares appear solid. We have a limited data set (Ravnica Allegiance is the only one), but the rational reasons undergirding the solid returns give me confidence that we'll see similar returns for War of the Spark mythics.

Of the 15 mythics, 10 would have made worthwhile investments, and only one would have been a bad investment. The mean increase was 218-percent (bloated by Kaya's dramatic rise from laughingstock to Esper Control staple), and the median increase was a solid 100-percent. Players who want to build decks with War of the Spark mythics should consider buying now; investors looking for a medium-term speculation opportunity could do worse than investing in WAR mythics.

III. Investment Strategy

Below are the current prices for War of the Spark mythics as sold by Cardhoarder and MTGOTraders.

Strategy #1: Invest evenly in all of them.

This is a good conservative strategy. Right now you can buy one of each mythic for 65 tix. I expect that to dip closer to 50 tix within a week. Employing this strategy is a safe way to make some tix on MTGO as redemption demand outpaces new supply infused into the market. Implementing this strategy would have netted you a 75-percent return with Ravnica Allegiance mythics. While I don't expect the same return this time since more people will be employing this strategy than last time, you should still expect solid returns.

Strategy #2: Invest in the cheaper ones.

A closer look at the two data tables above shows that the cheaper mythics performed best. The most impressive gains were made by cards like Rakdos, the Showstopper.

All cards below 2.00 tix saw gains of at least 100-percent. The reason is simple: relative to these cards' past iterations in previous sets, these cards now have higher overall value because of redemption. The scarcity of today's mythics forces their value up, especially once redemption goes live a month after a set's release. "Bulk mythics" now have more value.

Strategy #3: Speculate on which mythics will become part of the established metagame.

Finally, at long last, MTGO speculators have a meaningful opportunity to speculate on new cards based exclusively on predicting their future performance. If you can predict which of these new mythics will see meaningful play in Standard or Modern, you could make the next Kaya speculation. Another way to look at it is this: you can now speculate knowing that redemption is going to provide a bit of a safety floor in case you fail spectacularly. Dovin, Grand Arbiter and Spawn of Mayhem are great examples. Thought that they'd be great and part of the Standard metagame? Not a problem -- you would have practically broke even despite messing up. As a speculator, that's a great place to be.

Of these three strategies, this offers the widest range of return, from slightly negative to hugely positive. Just don't be brash and choose a breakout mythic like Hydroid Krasis that skyrockets to 40 tix before you invest in it. All three of the above strategies are sound.

If y'all want a "Mythic Power Rankings: War of the Spark Edition" right now, please let me know in the comments or on Discord and I'll provide a full analysis of the mythics so that you can employ Strategy #3 more wisely. In its place, or as a prelude, I'll write my thoughts on a few mythics I think could see breakout performances and could, therefore, outperform other members of this investment class. Remember that we're looking for cards that will be good one to three months from now, not post rotation in October. Regardless, I will do a proper Mythic Power Rankings article for these mythics after its redemption ends and the prices are once again low.

a) Finale of Promise

Currently sitting around 5 tix, Finale of Promise is a very potent card that has the chance to make an impact in Modern. Buying back two impactful spells like Fatal Push and Lightning Bolt for three mana is not something to be ignored. Standard doesn't offer the same suite of one-mana spells, but casting Finale of Promise for x=2 or x=3 is also more feasible in Standard. I don't think the chance of striking gold here is all that great, especially since folks are targeting the graveyard heavily in Modern already, but I like that it has the potential to strike gold in multiple formats.

b) God-Eternal Kefnet

I know this is the most expensive mythic right now, but man 13 tix feels low for a card that I anticipate will define a new tier one deck in the nearish future. Kefnet is a design mistake, on the level of The Scarab God. It's virtually impossible to permanently remove and generates very powerful card and tempo advantages because of its body and its ability to reduce the mana cost of your spells. Investing in Kefnet outside of strategy #1 does carry risk because of the higher starting price, but I could see this card commanding 30 or more tix in short order.

IV. Signing Off

That's it for now folks. I threw a lot of data on y'all, but if you have any questions or want any clarifications please message me on Discord or in the comments down below.

Thanks for reading and I'll see y'all next time!

Testing Punishing Fire: Experimental Setup

Posted on May 7, 2019 by David Ernenwein

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The time has come to start rolling out the results of my latest foray into the Modern banlist. In the past, the return of this series was hailed with a public vote for which card I'd work on, followed by months of silence while I actually did the work. This time, extenuating circumstances dictated the card, so I never announced anything. Surprise?

For those new to this series, I periodically take a card from the Modern Banned and Restricted List, slot it into the current version of the deck that got it banned in the first place (if possible), then run it through a gauntlet of decks alongside a stock list (serving as the experimental control) to see what impact it might have on Modern if legalized. The intention is to see if the reasons for it being banned are still valid, and what its power level could be in an updated model. I have previously tested Stoneforge Mystic, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Preordain, Bloodbraid Elf, and Green Sun's Zenith. This time, I tested Punishing Fire.

Repaying a Debt

If my testing Punishing Fire comes as a surprise to you, know that it was to me, too. Back when I started doing these tests, I specifically said that I wouldn't test Fire; Jund was a Tier 1 deck. Given that the other testing options were either cards that had never been in Modern, had more applications, or simply seemed more interesting, the opportunity cost of testing a card that would slot right into Jund and little else was too high to consider it a viable candidate. There was also the fact that I remembered its time in Modern and had no interest in reliving those grindy, grindy days.

What changed my mind? Nothing. I'd have rather tested anything besides Punishing Fire for the aforementioned reasons. The fact that Bloodbraid Elf got tested, unbanned, and hasn't done much changed nothing for me: I don't see value in testing Jund cards. Particularly ones that exist only to infinitely grind. I've also seen and played against it in Legacy since then, and I can't stand the gameplay it creates. Second Sunrise and Sensei's Diving Top are banned because they drag games out, and based on my experience, so does Fire.

However, the Grixis Death's Shadow player who's worked most of my tests really wanted me to test Fire. At heart, the man's a Jund devotee (he also piloted Jund in the early tests), and only ever played GDS because he felt he had to back in 2017. He very strongly wants Jund to be The Deck again and thinks Fire is the key. I don't agree; there's nothing wrong with the deck, it's the metagame that's against him. However, he's been asking me to test Fire for years now, and finally called in all his work on the project as favors to make me test it. And so, begrudgingly, I got to work.

The Banning in Context

Much like Green Sun's Zenith, Punishing Fire was briefly legal in Modern. Modern was first proposed in May 2011, and was debuted that September. Zenith and many other cards were banned immediately afterward. Fire survived until December 2011, when it and Wild Nacatl were banned following dominating performances at Worlds. Wizards justified their decision as follows:

We also have the goal of maintaining a diverse format. While there were aggressive decks, control decks, attrition decks, and combination decks that succeeded, the diversity was not ideal. In particular, the heavy majority of all aggressive decks were "Zoo" decks.

Basically, Zoo packing Nacatl and Fire was the only real creature deck at Worlds. Jund was also rocking the combo of Punishing Fire and Grove of the Burnwillows. The state of creatures at the time meant that anything cheap was just dead to Fire and weaker than Nacatl, so they were removed to allow more creature decks to exist. They were considered too good for their day, though ironically, Nacatl doesn't see play anymore.

A Place in Legacy

Since then, Fire has seen considerable play in Legacy as an intrinsic and potent part of Legacy Jund, though Jund itself has been steadily declining. It's still powerful, and Jund can wreck the unprepared, but in Legacy, Jund-style attrition is done better by Grixis decks.

Another Legacy home for the card is Lands, a prison deck that abuses Life from the Loam, various anti-creature lands, and Punishing Fire to shut down creature decks. Against everything else, it either loops Wasteland until opponents concede or combos them out with Dark Depths/Thespian's Stage.

Lands is a frustrating deck to play against in general, since most of its lock pieces are hard-to-interact-with lands (hence the name). However, the Fire/Grove combo is the worst, because it is incredibly slow, yet inexorable. The game isn't ever really over, and yet so few cards matter anymore that the frustration gets overpowering. Dealing a net one damage per turn is also akin to water torture. Finally, Grove's lifegain is a mana ability trigger, so it's a return of the rules headaches of Krark-Clan Ironworks.

The Test Decks

I was always going to test Fire in Jund. Jund was seconday compared to Zoo for getting Fire banned, but there's nothing comparable to Zoo anymore, so it wouldn't work as the test deck. It was also really tempting to just copy a 2011 Worlds decklist and go get lunch. However, Modern is a very different format today than it was back then, and those lists just aren't very good anymore. Anyone up for maindeck Thrun, the Last Troll and 26 lands?

Trying to modify a contemporary Modern deck to fit Fire also proved quite tricky. I could just awkwardly force in my test cards, but I want to use a list that would make actual sense if the card were legal. I ended up using Legacy decks as my guide for the manabase in the test deck and picking the more versatile removal. The control Jund deck is completely stock.

Control Jund, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant

4 Tarmogoyf

3 Scavenging Ooze

4 Bloodbraid Elf

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil

Artifacts

1 Nihil Spellbomb

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Thoughtseize

Instants

3 Fatal Push

2 Lightning Bolt

3 Assassin's Trophy

2 Kolaghan's Command

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

4 Verdant Catacombs

2 Raging Ravine

2 Treetop Village

2 Bloodstained Mire

2 Wooded Foothills

2 Swamp

2 Forest

2 Overgrown Tomb

1 Stomping Ground

1 Blood Crypt

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge

2 Anger of the Gods

2 Damping Sphere

3 Fulminator Mage

2 Surgical Extraction

1 Liliana, the Last Hope

1 Collective Brutality

1 Damnation

1 Engineered Explosives

Fiery Jund, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Dark Confidant

3 Scavenging Ooze

4 Bloodbraid Elf

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

1 Thoughtseize

Instants

4 Punishing Fire

3 Assassin's Trophy

2 Fatal Push

2 Kolaghan's Command

Lands

4 Grove of the Burnwillows

4 Verdant Catacombs

2 Wooded Foothills

2 Bloodstained Mire

3 Overgrown Tomb

3 Blood Crypt

2 Forest

2 Swamp

2 Raging Ravine

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge

2 Anger of the Gods

2 Damping Sphere

3 Fulminator Mage

2 Surgical Extraction

1 Liliana, the Last Hope

1 Collective Brutality

1 Duress

1 Engineered Explosives

I had to cut a lot of one-drop interaction to make Fire fit. Assassin's Trophy stayed because it was more versatile against more decks. I consulted with the guy responsible for this test on the list, and based on his sideboarding recommendations, I replaced a maindeck Thoughtseize with a sideboard Duress. He only kept Thoughtseize in against control and combo decks, so if I'm going to side one in against those decks, Duress does the same job without hurting me.

The Gauntlet

As always, the testing gauntlet was chosen from decks doing well at the time the test began. This means that every deck comes from mid-to-late October 2018. This may surprise observant readers since I hadn't reported the Green Sun's Zenith test results then. I normally wait several months to recover between tests. However, the favors were called in at the end of September, and I had to get moving. As usual, I picked players I knew who were available for hours of testing via Skype calls and played the decks I wanted to test against. They used their own lists.

UW Control, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage

Sorceries

4 Terminus

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Enchantments

3 Search for Azcanta

Instants

4 Opt

4 Path to Exile

2 Condemn

3 Logic Knot

1 Negate

4 Cryptic Command

1 Settle the Wreckage

1 Hieroglyphic Illumination

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Flooded Strand

4 Field of Ruin

2 Hallowed Fountain

1 Glacial Fortress

1 Ghost Quarter

5 Plains

4 Island

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere

2 Rest in Peace

2 Stony Silence

2 Negate

2 Dispel

2 Geist of Saint Traft

1 Lyra Dawnbringer

1 Baneslayer Angel

1 Celestial Purge

I've always tried to have a wide spread of decks representing as many archetypes and playstyles as possible. Thus, I was always going to have UW Control. There was some debate over including Tron. Space in the gauntlet is limited, and Dredge being a huge boogeyman back then made a compelling argument. However, Tron is a known bad matchup for Jund across time and format fluctuations, so finding out how a new addition affects the matchup is always useful.

Mono-Green Tron, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

2 Walking Ballista

3 Wurmcoil Engine

2 World Breaker

2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Planeswalkers

4 Karn Liberated

2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

4 Sylvan Scrying

Artifacts

4 Chromatic Star

4 Chromatic Sphere

4 Expedition Map

3 Relic of Progenitus

3 Oblivion Stone

Lands

4 Urza's Mine

4 Urza's Tower

4 Urza's Power Plant

1 Ghost Quarter

1 Sanctum of Ugin

5 Forest

Sideboard

4 Nature's Claim

4 Thragtusk

3 Thought-Knot Seer

2 Spatial Contortion

1 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Emrakul, the Promised End

The choice of which creature decks to run was easy in a rather hard way. I was always going to run two because the a priori assumption is that Fire is only impactful in those matchups. There were some obvious choices, but I didn't know if they were the best choices.

Last October, when I was putting together the gauntlet and getting the testing moving, Bant Spirits was the creature deck of choice. It had been doing well over the summer and continued to do so into fall so it would be the obvious inclusion. However, it's also a deck that I wouldn't expect Fire to have much effect against because of hexproof. This is a valid problem with Fire, so it's fine to include Spirits, but I needed another deck more in line with the decks from back in 2012 so I could see if the cited problem persisted.

Arclight Phoenix was a newcomer and while it had started making itself known back then, it wasn't clear that it would become the force that we now know it is. Therefore, I didn't test Izzet Phoenix. Dredge was also a consideration.

The obvious choice for a more traditional creature deck was Humans. Logically, it would be very vulnerable, since most of its creatures have 2 toughness or less and Meddling Mage gets overwhelmed by Jund's removal variety. However, it wasn't a very sucessful or popular deck at the time, because it wasn't as well-positioned as Spirits. Elves was the other option, with similar attractiveness for the test, though it's not a popular or successful Modern archetype. The decision was made when the Humans player immediately joined in when asked while the other pilots were still deciding.

Bant Spirits, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch

4 Mausoleum Wanderer

4 Supreme Phantom

3 Phantasmal Image

2 Selfless Spirit

1 Rattlechains

4 Spell Queller

4 Drogskol Captain

2 Geist of Saint Traft

Instants

4 Path to Exile

4 Collected Company

Artifacts

3 Aether Vial

Lands

3 Misty Rainforest

3 Horizon Canopy

2 Flooded Strand

2 Windswept Heath

2 Botanical Sanctum

1 Breeding Pool

1 Hallowed Fountain

1 Temple Garden

1 Seachrome Coast

1 Cavern of Souls

1 Moorland Haunt

1 Plains

1 Forest

1 Island

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence

3 Rest in Peace

3 Unified Will

2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

2 Dromoka's Command

2 Gaddock Teeg

Humans, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish

4 Noble Hierarch

4 Kitesail Freebooter

4 Meddling Mage

4 Phantasmal Image

4 Thalia's Lieutenant

3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

4 Mantis Rider

4 Reflector Mage

2 Militia Bugler

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat

4 Cavern of Souls

4 Horizon Canpoy

4 Unclaimed Territory

1 Seachrome Coast

1 Island

1 Plains

Sideboard

2 Auriok Champion

2 Izzet Staticaster

2 Knight of Autumn

2 Sin Collector

2 Grafdigger's Cage

2 Damping Sphere

1 Dismember

1 Anafenza, the Foremost

1 Gaddock Teeg

Finally, my combo deck is Ironworks. Storm is my usual choice, but that didn't make sense this time. Neither it nor any other non-Ironworks combo decks were doing that well last October. Also, I had finally found someone who knew Ironworks well enough and was willing to test with me, so it was time to bring in the smelter.

Ironworks, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

4 Scrap Trawler

2 Myr Retriever

1 Sai, Master Thopterist

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

Artifacts

4 Mox Opal

3 Engineered Explosives

4 Terrarion

4 Chromatic Star

2 Chromatic Sphere

2 Pyrite Spellbomb

4 Mind Stone

4 Ichor Wellspring

4 Krark-Clan Ironworks

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel

4 Grove of the Burnwillows

3 Buried Ruin

3 Inventors' Fair

2 Spire of Industry

2 Forest

Sideboard

4 Silence

4 Nature's Claim

3 Lightning Bolt

2 Sai, Master Thopterist

1 Galvanic Blast

1 Back to Nature

Punishment

I'll be honest, this test wasn't enjoyable for me. I didn't like how Fire made me play, or many of the games that resulted. However, I still carried out the full test with as open a mind as I could, and tried to show that it would be fine in Modern, as I always do. Check back next week to see how that went.

Uncommon Planeswalkers: A War of the Spark Phenomenon

Posted on May 6, 2019 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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War of the Spark is officially released and is destined to be one of the greatest selling sets of all time. At face value, this may sound like a bold prediction, but I’d argue it’s already a foregone conclusion. It all comes down to one thing: Planeswalkers. War of the Spark is riddled with Planeswalkers, and players will literally open one in every single pack.

This means we’ve gotten something previously unprecedented with this set: Planeswalkers printed at uncommon rarity. We’re used to seeing these printed at mythic rare, so getting uncommon planeswalkers means the supply on some of these will be much deeper than predecessors. This will put a lot of downward pressure on their price, and it’s very likely the worst of the bunch will be relegated to near-bulk--something unheard of in a world where any Planeswalker is worth at least $2.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded

But it’s not the worst that interests us—instead, this week we should focus on the most popular uncommon Planeswalkers in War of the Spark to predict what their price trajectory is. Since uncommon Planeswalkers are something we’ve not had before, it would behoove us to think ahead of their potential to determine how we want to deploy capital in this field. It’s easy to get caught up in hype from other MTG finance personalities and follow recommendations blindly. This week I will share perspective on where these may go over the short and long term so you can factor in these data when making your purchases.

Popular Uncommon Price Histories

Before predicting trajectories for the uncommon Planeswalkers, let’s first examine the price charts of recent playable uncommons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lava Coil

According to MTG Stocks, Lava Coil is the most played card in Standard. Granted this could shift since the metagame is in flux. But for now, it’s safe to assume this simple removal spell has been relevant during its time in Standard thus far. Upon release, the card was worth about a buck—nothing to sneeze at for an uncommon. It peaked last February at around $3 and has been dropping back towards $1 ever since. It didn’t help that two copies were included in the Lightning Aggro Challenger Deck. Up until its reprint, though, this was a very strong uncommon that may have made you profit during preorder season.

Another uncommon that sees ample Standard play is Cast Down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cast Down

The price chart on this card looks quite different from that of Lava Coil. It seems the black instant was fairly hyped upon release, peaking nearly $5. But it crashed down to a buck within a few short weeks of release, not really managing to break the $1 price point since. Buying into preorder hype on this card would have been painful.

Slightly less painful would have been Wilderness Recalamation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wilderness Reclamation

This card is currently ranked 49^th in Standard—far from the top but a nonzero amount nonetheless. What’s more, this card is a reasonable Commander card. Who doesn’t like tapping out on their turn and still having mana available to disrupt opponents’ turns? This uncommon launched at near the $3 mark and quickly tumbled to $1.50. But instead of flatlining permanently, the card has slowly rebounded and is nearly $2. It’s still not profitable, but there is hope for this card when considering the long-term.

Lastly, I want to mention a recent multi-format all-star: Fatal Push.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fatal Push

This card launched at around $5, rallied toward $10, and then gradually retreated all the way down to $4. The FNM promo likely did a number on this card, but I suspect the biggest drag on its price was its departure from Standard. Still, the price trajectory of this card gives us a glimpse at upside potential for an uncommon that sees significant play in non-rotating formats. It’s worth noting Fatal Push has been around for over two years and is still trading near it’s all-time, post-rotation low.

The Uncommon Planeswalker Trajectory

Let’s assume for a moment that being a Planeswalker, alone, will not overcome the high supply of these uncommons. What can we expect their price trajectory to look like in the near term?

This will depend on multiple factors. If a card becomes a Standard staple, it has the potential to start very strong price-wise. But such a jump in price may not occur day one. Lava Coil’s price was depressed for about a month before it jumped. Cast Down tanked hard within the first month and never really recovered. Based on this assessment, I’d say ordering these uncommon planeswalkers into the incoming supply gut is a risky move.

But I’m not going to give a blanket “pass” on these cards. Not yet. There are two factors that could come into play that may make these good bets. First, there’s the surprise factor. If any of these uncommon Planeswalkers surprise us during the early stages of the new Standard, then that card could hit $5 immediately afterward. If you have a chance to profit on any uncommon Planeswalkers during such a spike, that would be your chance to cash out.

Second, if an uncommon Planeswalker has multi-format utility, it has a much higher chance of maintaining an elevated price tag. Fatal Push is a recent example for multi-format all-start printed at uncommon. Should any of the uncommon Planeswalkers achieve such status, it could maintain a price tag well north of $5 for its time in Standard. But it’s important to remember that Standard demand is transient, and will diminish as rotation approaches. This seems like a long ways away now, but it’s important to remember this inevitability because the price will drop when the time comes. Even Fatal Push couldn’t dodge that impact.

As we look out to the long-term horizon, things are trickier to predict. There really is no precedent for an uncommon Planeswalker’s price trajectory. Depending on how much demand there is for the card in non-rotating formats, any trajectory is possible. If a card finds a home in Modern and Commander, it could easily sustain a $5-$10 price tag for years. On the other hand, weaker demand could relegate an uncommon Planeswalker to the near-bulk bin. Still, a Planeswalker is a Planeswalker and I don’t think any of these will truly become bulk. Personally, I’d keep any Planeswalker separate from the rest of my War of the Spark bulk because there’s bound to be collector demand if nothing else.

Keeping these cards out of bulk is one thing—but is it wise to speculate on them? Would I recommend buying a stack of Narset, Parter of Veils? It’s hard to say. There’s bound to be one or two uncommon Planeswalkers that do break out, and those could be quite profitable if you get in now. If Narset is one of those break-out cards, it could easily jump to $5, and a $3 buylist would be an excellent out for a stack of these.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset, Parter of Veils

But if Narset isn’t the winner, and instead Ob Nixilis, the Hate-Twisted becomes a mainstay in Standard, then you may be stuck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ob Nixilis, the Hate-Twisted

Being stuck with a stack of uncommon Planeswalkers you paid a buck each for isn’t the worst. But it may take a while for that buy to pay out. If that’s going to be your play, then I’d definitely recommend trying to get these at their absolute floor, a couple weeks post-release. If you think you have the breakout card for Standard, then you’re better off buying now and selling into the spike. But I’d recommend holding off on pulling the trigger on any long-term type speculation, waiting for peak supply to hit the market.

From there, although unprecedented, I think you could do a lot worse than sitting on 100 uncommon Planeswalkers that cost you $0.25-$0.50 each for a couple years. Some of them are bound to hit.

Wrapping It Up

These uncommon Planeswalkers are difficult to evaluate. They are uncommon in a set where you get one Planeswalker in every single booster pack. This means supply will be through the roof, especially if the set is a huge success (it’s the first set that interested me since Dominaria). With this in mind, I think you have two angles to try and make profit on these.

First, you could try to buy up the potential break-out card in Standard. If you pick correctly, you could get lucky and end up shipping a stack of cards to a buylist for easy gains. I’ll admit picking Standard winners is not my strong suit. I’m more inclined to play the second approach: waiting for these to bottom in price and then shoving a bunch of them in a box for a while. Some may not get there, but I think we’ll be able to evaluate which Planeswalkers will be relevant in non-rotating formats over the coming weeks. I’ll target my favorites and try to get a bunch for $0.25 to $0.50. This will require little capital and offer potential for long-term growth.

Lastly, you could also focus on foils. I suspect foil copies of these will remain desirable regardless of the amount of play they see. I didn't study foils in particular this week, but I think you'll want to get any foils you're interested in owning shortly after release when supply peaks.

One thing is for certain: there are 20 uncommon Planeswalkers in War of the Spark and only three are worth more than a buck according to MTG Stocks. That may not be the case a couple years from now. If I can get a bunch of the more desirable Planeswalkers on the cheap in the next month or two, I will be very tempted to do so for the long-term. Planeswalkers will always have a special place in the hearts of casual players, and that should provide sustained demand for these cards for years to come. As long as you’re patient, it seems like you can’t go wrong.

…

Sigbits

I’m always talking about what’s hot in this portion of my weekly column. Let’s take a look at some cards that are cold this time around. This data can be equally important. Let’s start with Dual Lands—every single one of these has fallen off Card Kingdom’s hotlist. None of them are fetching prices they would have gotten you a couple months ago. For example, Plateau and Tundra are two Duals that I’ve shipped to CK in the past when their buylist was $105 and $270, respectively. Now they’re offering $75 and $170 for those same cards. It’ll be interesting to track where these go over the summer.
I recently shipped Card Kingdom a near mint Mox Diamond for $165. This card is still on their hotlist, but now they have over a dozen in stock and their buy price is down to $145. This isn’t exactly cold, but it does look like they’ve pulled back on aggressive acquisition of this Reserved List artifact.
Card Kingdom is still somewhat high on the Book Promo version of Mana Crypt. Just recently they offered $200 for near mint copies, though that number has since dropped to $170. In the meantime, Card Kingdom dropped their buy price on EMA copies from $165 to $130. These were on the precipice of disappearing from the market, and it seems the new price point has motivated sellers to come out of hiding and bring their copies to the market. This has suppressed further price growth for now.

War Domri in Temur Delver and GR Moon

Posted on May 3, 2019 by Jordan Boisvert

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One of the more exciting War of the Spark cards for me was Domri, Anarch of Bolas. The card didn't appear especially powerful, but it did pique my interest as a potential role-player in a couple of my favorite decks: GR Moon and Temur Delver.

As the static-ability walkers spoiled, I identified in them one critical weakness: a lack of cohesion. While the abilities they offered seemed interesting one by one, taken together on a card, I felt most of the walkers did too many different things. We'd only want one of its many abilities in a given matchup, for instance, and Modern has better cards for executing that ability.

Domri, Anarch of Bolas offends less on this count, and I felt it would be possible to build a deck that benefited from all three of his modes. To make use of Domri's abilities, the deck would need to:

Go wide or want to buff creature power by 1 for some other reason
Make use of an additional mana per turn
Have creatures large enough to turn fight mode into a reliable kill spell

As it does every so often, my brainstorming led me back to two of my old pet decks: GR Moon and Temur Delver. Read on for proposed builds in each archetype and my preliminary thoughts on Domri in the decks.

An Embarrassment of Riches Walkers

GR Moon is a stompy deck that ramps into turn two Blood Moon and promptly pressures opponents until the game is over. It differs from Ponza in that it doesn't run land destruction cards, and has a much lower mana curve, enabling Faithless Looting to sift through the deck. Its primary closer is Tarmogoyf.

One of my longtime nitpicks with GR Moon, an archetype I've played around with for four years now, has always been the lack of effective planeswalkers to run. With Fatal Push legal, it's critical that Tarmogoyf be as big as possible, giving us plenty of incentive to fit walkers into the list. Granted, we've since received an adequate walker for the strategy in Sarkhan, Fireblood—see this article for more on his roles in the deck. But as they say, the more the merrier, and I think Domri too offers GR Moon some unique angles.

Domri's Roles

Domri's static ability rewards us for running Goblin Rabblemaster. The 2/2 has made it into a few of my Moon builds, especially the earlier ones with rituals, but has mostly held a flex spot in my builds. Lately, the card is proving itself as one of Modern's strongest options for quickly pressuring disrupted opponents. Giving every Goblin token +1/+0 significantly increases Rabblemaster's power, effectively doubling its per-turn damage output. Additionally, granting our creatures +1/+0 turns an excess of mana dorks into more pressure.

The mana addition also meshes with GR Moon's strategy. We like to dump mana sources beyond the fourth with Faithless Looting and Sarkhan, using that chaff to dig into business. Domri gets that ball rolling a turn earlier. Instead of deploying a fourth land, we can sandbag it and still have access to the same amount of mana. It's icing on the cake that our creatures can't be countered.

Fight mode is nothing new, as it's something the old Domri Rade also featured. But while Rade's other two abilities weren't worth our time, Anarch's are, incentivizing us to seriously weigh fight mode's applications. One of GR Moon's classic issues is its lack of hard removal. While splashing black is an option, and the first one I employed, it's not so elegant, especially with color-intensive walkers in the mix. Domri's -2 lets Tarmogoyf take out pretty much any threat across the battlefield, including other Goyfs thanks to the +1/+0. I've also used the -2 on a freshly-deployed Hazoret the Fervent before making a hasty attack. Of course, in lieu of a fatty, the ability leaves much to be desired—we can't be caught bringing a Bird of Paradise to a gun fight.

Here's the build I'm working with:

GR Moon, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch

2 Birds of Paradise

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

2 Magus of the Moon

2 Hazoret the Fervent

Planeswalkers

3 Sarkhan, Fireblood

3 Domri, Anarch of Bolas

Enchantments

4 Blood Moon

4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Tarfire

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills

3 Misty Rainforest

3 Verdant Catacombs

2 Stomping Ground

4 Forest

2 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Anger of the Gods

4 Damping Sphere

3 Dire Fleet Daredevil

2 Ancient Grudge

2 Dismember

Card Choices

This deck really wants to start with a mana dork in hand, be it Birds, Hierarch, or Sprawl. That's why we run 10 of them, an ample amount under the pending London Mulligan. With all those Bolt targets, as well as Rabblemaster, I figured it safe for Magus of the Moon to make an appearance. 4 Blood Moon isn't so many when your gameplan depends on it.

I split the walkers down the middle, maximizing the odds of sticking both. Looting can then ditch walkers as necessary with an equal chance of finding the right one down the road.

The sideboard maxes out on some of the best hate in the format. Dire Fleet Daredevil returns from the last build as another way to remove large threats across the table, especially against the Goyf decks, which also tend to run Fatal Push. There are no Surgical Extractions here because Damping Sphere hoses Izzet Phoenix better, and Anger of the Gods takes care of Dredge.

Tuning Temur Delver

My other long-lost deck, Temur Delver, uses Domri for slightly different purposes. It has no interest in deploying lots of creatures or going wide with tokens. Rather, Temur takes advantage of Domri's planeswalker type with self-mill effects to grow Tarmogoyf for value, and especially enjoys the +1/+0 boost on its creatures.

Domri's Roles

Tarmogoyf has long proved problematic for this deck, too, and now our Goyfs beat theirs in combat. Hooting Mandrills is also way more threatening when it's got Gurmag Angler-levels of power, not to mention impossible to stonewall with an Angler under Domri. Cutest of all, though, is the buff granted to Delver of Secrets. Not only does a 4/2 flier end the game very fast, Insectile Aberration now grants ferocious for Stubborn Denial!

As with GR Moon, Temur Delver usually finds itself strapped for mana. The extra boost from Domri helps cast threats while keeping up counterspell mana. And fight mode is relevant for the same reasons: we can finally remove big creatures with our bigger Goyfs.

Something to keep in mind about Domri in this deck, compared with in GR Moon, is that it won't be coming down ahead of schedule. Rather, Domri is a tap-out turn three play, or a way to punish opponents who commit mana to dealing with our creatures. Once it's down, they can't counter our future threats, which are larger than before and can also take out enemy creatures. Against aggro decks, Domri doesn't need to be dead on arrival each time; his +1 can generate a mana for Hooting Mandrills, or Tarmogoyf if we've got another to spare, and these creatures can protect him for the turn cycle.

The list:

Temur Delver, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Hooting Mandrills

1 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

2 Domri, Anarch of Bolas

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

4 Thought Scour

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Stubborn Denial

2 Mana Leak

1 Simic Charm

1 Lazotep Plating

1 Tarfire

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

2 Faithless Looting

1 Flame Slash

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

2 Steam Vents

1 Breeding Pool

1 Stomping Ground

3 Spirebluff Canal

2 Island

1 Forest

Sideboard

3 Damping Sphere

2 Blood Moon

2 Huntmaster of the Fells

1 Hazoret the Fervent

1 Snapcaster Mage

3 Surgical Extraction

2 Anger of the Gods

1 Stubborn Denial

Card Choices

Snapcaster is a bit clunky in Temur, but I like the upside of keeping a single copy in the mainboard of a four-Scour deck. Taking a cue from Grixis Shadow, I've included 2 Faithless Looting here as a means to sift through unwanted cards or dump rare card types into the graveyard—Domri in particular can clog in the early-game. Bauble is here to make Tarmogoyf worth playing over Death's Shadow, and so is Tarfire.

The other flex spots are occupied by Flame Slash, a killer of Thing in the Ice, and a couple blue protection spells: Simic Charm and Lazotep Plating. Both of these save our threats from removal with upside. Simic's benefit is its flexibility: we can use it to soft-disrupt a combo by bouncing a creature, or to trample over an enemy blocker with Hooting Mandrills. Plating, too, is flexible, as outlined in my War of the Spark spoiler review. But its bonus effect of generating a token happens no matter which "mode" we choose—countering a burn spell; saving a creature; protecting Domri; or just end-step amass. Of note: with the planeswalker in play, our amass token is a 2/1! I like amass here because it insulates us from edict effects, as on Liliana of the Veil, and gives us blockers for the damage race or pressure for an enemy planeswalker.

This sideboard does indeed run Surgical Extraction, as well as Damping Sphere and some Moons of its own for the big mana matchups. Huntmaster and Hazoret remain Temur staples in my eyes. The Werewolf and his token increase their power by a lot with Domri in play, and Hazoret hits like a ton of bricks no matter what. The final Stubborn sits in the sideboard for spell-based matchups.

A Walker on the Wild Side

I don't think either of these decks will upend Modern, or even close—they both have fundamental issues that Domri doesn't fix. But I do think the walker improves them on some metrics. For me, part of the fun of Modern is being able to gradually strengthen beloved decks as new cards are released. Which War cards have you feeding your pets?

Mulligans, Modern, and the Mythic Championship

Posted on May 1, 2019 by Christopher O'Berry

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Mythic Championship II took place over the weekend, featuring Modern Constructed and the experimental London Mulligan. Many expected combo decks to perform well. They did overall, but were just shy of making the Top 8 of the event. As expected, the most linear strategies that were already at the top had the chance to perform better under the new mulligan conditions.

Just As Expected

The decks people expected to do well showed up in force, and the metagame appears to be relatively the same as it was leading up to the event.

Many tried their hand at new archetypes that would supposedly benefit from the rule, such as Serum Powder Eldrazi variants. I expect this card to be on the sharp decline very soon, as its results were fairly underwhelming. Bigger winners with similar effects were Leyline of the Void and Leyline of Sanctity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serum Powder

Others opted for more reliable decks like Tron, Humans, and Izzet Phoenix, which were played much more than the rest of the archetypes below them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Tron being the most played deck does not strike me as odd in the slightest, as it appeared to be the front runner from all the preliminary testing going on in the weeks leading up to the tournament. While it didn't put up the win percentage to fully back that up, that didn't stop it from having a good showing, with two copies (nearly three) in the Top 8 of the tournament.

Going forward, I believe there will be some rising demand for many of the Tron pieces, especially with War of the Spark making its debut this week. The new Karn, the Great Creator and Ugin, the Ineffable add even more efficiency to the suite of threats the seven-mana landbase can enable.

Cards to keep your eye on are Wurmcoil Engine, Oblivion Stone, and Expedition Map. The deck even gets a nice new piece of bling when War of the Spark: Mythic Edition drops today in Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

Only one Phoenix deck managed to crack the Top 8, piloted by none other than reigning World Champion Javier Dominguez, but the archetype had a great showing overall with a positive win record. With a smaller field, many players were able to adjust their decks against the top Modern deck, and yet it still finished quite well.

Notable tech for these lists is the one-of copy of Set Adrift, an uncommon from Khans of Tarkir. I've already talked to death about this deck, as have others—you won't be surprised to know I've got eyes on Manamorphose, Thing in the Ice, and Pyromancer Ascension.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Vial

The last dominant archetype I'd like to mention here is Humans, which Eli Loveman used to take down the event. Newer tech such as Deputy of Detention and Whirler Rogue were key cards in a lot of matchups, but the strength of this deck really just lies in its linearity and ability to play disruptive creatures.

Many of the on-camera wins we saw with this deck involved Thalia's Lieutenant and Champion of the Parish aggro plans, but the more disgusting plays the deck powered out mainly involved Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage. Who needs Duress and Counterspell when you can simply put them on a creature and start bashing?

The deck contains the obvious pieces that make it tick like Noble Hierarch and Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, but financially I look to cards like Cavern of Souls and Aether Vial as standouts. These will likely be high-priority acquisitions moving into Modern Horizon's release.

Just Outside the Spotlight

While the top decks of the format comprised a majority of the top slots, I feel it's best to examine the decks that had higher win rates over the course of the tournament. As I mentioned before, the London Mulligan was very kind to decks looking to assemble a specific sequence of cards. I called Tron out before, but even more impressive is Ad Nauseam's win rate, likely due to this mulligan rule.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ad Nauseam

While there were only eight players piloting this deck at the tournament, a 67% win rate is nothing to scoff at considering the caliber of players. While this deck weaves in and out of the metagame, it's never really been a terrible choice to enter a tournament with.

It also has a lot of very specific cards, like Angel's Grace, Phyrexian Unlife, and Lotus Bloom. While the namesake card is pushing a $20 price tag, the rest of the unique pieces likely have a lot of room to grow with their sub-$10 prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scapeshift

I know I've been carrying on about Scapeshift for a while, but I think we're likely going to see the main pieces of this deck become more expensive. Scapeshift saw some minimal pressure due to the printing of Evolution Sage in War of the Spark, but I think there's likely to be more if Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle decks are able to hack it after the release of Modern Horizons.

Primeval Titan gets even more interesting to me as a spec target, as it's still well under $20 a copy. If we see the London Mulligan rule implemented fully, this is certainly one deck you'll want to be invested in, as it's one of the most consistent combo decks in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

I'll point this one out again too, as UW and Esper Control's successful showing at the Mythic Championship was enough to get me moving in on some Cryptic Commands. This deck did far better than I expected it to, considering the room had strong Tron stench, but its decent matchups against most of the field make it a compelling choice. With recent innovations such as Surgical Extraction and Rest in Peace seeing mainboard play, you can bet that UW had a much easier time finding the right answers with the London Mulligan in effect.

These are the premier decks running Jace, the Mind Sculptor and his cohort Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, and will have players excited from just a raw power standpoint alone. At present, I don't think UW decks are anywhere near on par with decks like Tron, Humans, and Izzet Phoenix (I'll put Dredge at the top of the format as well). But a few key additions from Modern Horizons could cause a paradigm shift towards blue control.

Aside from Cryptic, I think Path to Exile will be the most relevant card to hold going forward, despite its upcoming reprint in Signature Spellbook: Gideon.

Bring it on Home

I'll have to admit, I wasn't incredibly high on this Mythic Championship. It highlighted the worst parts of the format for me again, and despite having some very exciting and controversial moments, was an underwhelming pro-level event. However, with new cards getting injected into the format with War of the Spark, we may see some shifts very soon. Regardless of my opinion of the format, there is no denying that there will be cards on the move due to this event.

Interests:

Cryptic Command
Path to Exile
Ad Nauseam cards
RG Valakut cards
Aether Vial
Cavern of Souls

Cards to get out of:

Serum Powder. Really, just that one card.

Peace!

Insider: QS Cast #121 – War of the Spark Part II [Unlocked]

Posted on April 30, 2019 by Chaz V

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Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

QS Writer Chris Martin re-joins the Cast! Has been dubbed an honorary QS Cast host!
War of the Spark dive.
Another look at War of the Spark Commander implications
Insider Questions

Cards to Consider

*This Podcast was Recorded on 04/11/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

The Culmination: MC London

Posted on April 30, 2019 by David Ernenwein

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At last, we've got the Mythic Championship results. It's been quite the build up between the ongoing saga of Izzet Phoenix and questions over the proposed mulligan change. We were all looking for definitive answers from London, and while I didn't get all of them, I think there's enough evidence to answer some of them. Though not without some caveats.

The Disclaimers

This is the time where I make my usual disclaimer about over-analyzing results from the Pro Tour, now Mythic Championship. This is an invitation-only tournament, so the sample is not random. It is also quite small, so there is opportunity and motive to try and game the field rather than pick on deck based on merit alone. This is also a mixed-format event, and the draft portion has a huge impact on final standings. A player can be mediocre in constructed and flawless in draft for a high finish and vice-versa. Thus, the data should always be viewed skeptically.

However, MC London's data is particularly disorienting when it comes to assessing the metagame at large. There were a lot of new policies in place that may have skewed the results. The London Mulligan is the most notable, but it's not alone. Historically, the PT has taken place a few weeks after a new set releases so that players can learn the draft format. But London was a prerelease. Therefore, there was far less time to practice. In turn, this meant draft practice was prioritized over constructed practice, and the Modern results may have been affected as a result.

A Metagame Question

This reprioritization almost certainly exacerbated the problem of pro-level players struggling with Modern. If Twitter is any indication, a lot of players couldn't find a deck. This isn't new: most of competitive Magic isn't Modern so they don't play that much. Modern is a format that rewards mastery and experience over all else, and if players don't naturally have that, it is hard to manufacture for one tournament.

For this reason, pros have tended to pick very safe and well-known decks. That London would be Modern was also a relatively late announcement, so it didn't leave that much time to prepare. In these circumstances, it's natural for players to just default to whatever decks they've had previous success with or appear to be doing well. Rather than try something new, it's just better to stick with the new hot deck in Izzet Phoenix or last year's best deck Humans.

Also of note is the London Mulligan's pre-tournament effects. Before the tournament, all the buzz said that Tron would be the biggest beneficiary, which mathematical models appeared to confirm. Given that Tron is a known good deck and not that hard to play, all the hype and expectation were naturally going to inflate its numbers.

An Information Advantage

The final factor impacting London's data is open decklists. Wizards likes letting spectators see the decklists and has long been worried about scouting, so they decided to publish all the decklists on Day 1. The only hidden information was how many of each card was in each sideboard. This gave Humans a huge advantage and suppressed combo decks. Humans' maindeck has been pretty stable for over a year now, so there's not much difference between hiding and revealing their decklist.

Specifically, the decklist rule makes Meddling Mage much better. Mage is a very powerful card, but only good if you actually name a relevant card. It struggles against decks with multiple key cards or imperfect information. Forest, go could mean a slow start from Elves, Hardened Scales, and Tron or Amulet Titan. A turn 2 Mage in the dark is a wild guess. With access to opponents' decklists, each blind Mage was at least in the ballpark, and far more potent.

Additionally, combo decks were denied the surprise boost from opponents' confusion. There are a lot of very powerful combo options in Modern, and at least some players may have been trying to break the format with the London Mulligan. However, the threat of Humans combined with their deck's reliance on surprise was killed by open decklists. The incentive was to fall back on safe, known lists, rather than branch out.

Day One

So when it comes to actually looking at the data from London, there really isn't much surprise. According to Wizards, Tron made up 14.6% of the field, followed by Izzet Phoenix at 12.0% and Humans with 10.3%. There is a steep drop-off to fourth place with UW Control's 7.4%. The expectation that the more well-known and popular decks would do well is holding strong. Humans was last year's big deck, and Izzet has been this year. What I didn't expect was Tron to show up as strongly as it actually did. Beating out Izzet Phoenix for most popular deck is no small feat, and I suspect happened on the strength of the hype around Tron benefiting from the new mulligan. Other than that, the metagame looks quite diverse for an invitational tournament.

Day Two

The Day 2 data is rather unexceptional, as every deck made Day 2 in numbers equivalent to its initial population. The win rates are all over the place, but their order in terms of total representatives didn't change at all. This doesn't indicate any noticeable change in strength. Focusing on conversion rates is something of a fallacy, since popular decks will suffer from their popularity. This is borne out in the data, since the lower the starting population, the higher the conversion rates.

In Context

When it comes to overall win percentages, things get more interesting. Despite expectations set by Humans' advantage, the best performer was Ad Nauseam. Tron is indeed a great matchup, but Humans is quite bad. I presume that expert sideboarding is the reason for this jump. Overall, no deck really shone. The average win rate is roughly 50%, so Tron's 47.7% is not very good. This is likely due to players expecting the deck and packing enough Damping Spheres to protect themselves.

The Top 8

Humans won, which is hardly surprising considering there were three copies in the Top 8. Tron managed two, with TitanShift, Affinity, and Izzet Phoenix rounding it out. Tron and Human's numbers are hardly surprising considering their Day 2 presence, nor is Phoenix placing. It is proving very hard to keep the firebirds down. It's impressive that Matt Sperling made it with Affinity since it's been displaced by Hardened Scales. I imagine the Experimental Frenzys were critical to his success.

Given that, the interesting part of the Top 8 is that no UW Control made it. UW has a close matchup against Izzet Phoenix, can be made to handily defeat Tron, and fairly good against the field. I imagine it fell foul of Humans. UW doesn't play that many unique creature removal spells so it's easy to Meddling Mage it out of the game. You can also prevent a miracled Terminus by Vialing in Kitesail Freebooter in response to the trigger. Jeskai had a far better matchup, but it's weaker against the field.

Despite all this, I wouldn't read too much into the Top 8. Given that draft results are included, the actual finishes aren't very indicative of a deck's strength. To look

The Modern Story

Instead of the final placings, I would look at just the Modern match points. Doing so eliminates any boost or drag from the draft, and gives a clearer picture of deck strength. No deck ran better than 9-1 in Modern. This is the metagame of 8-2 or better decks.

Deck Name	Total #
Izzet Phoenix	5
Humans	4
Dredge	2
Ad Nauseam	2
Red Eldrazi	2
UW Control	2
Tron	2
Burn	1
Jund	1
Titanshift	1
Hardened Scales	1
Affinity	1
Amulet Titan	1
Whir Prison	1

This table looks very similar to the metagame we've been observing for the past several months. Izzet Phoenix is clearly on top, with Humans nipping at its heels. The rest of the metagame is very broad and roughly equal in metagame share, and therefore power level. To keep beating the dead horse, this indicates that the overall metagame is very healthy. The question remains: is Phoenix's continued seat atop the standings still acceptable? I think the answer has become no.

Despite its numbers being relatively down from GP levels, Phoenix is maintaining a high win rate. The second most popular deck, it had a 52.7% win rate. That's pretty average for the field. However, popular decks should necessarily have a lower rate, because they have more mirror matches and pilots that bomb out, cancelling some wins of the successful. Ad Nauseam did the best with 61.7%, and only boasted eight copies in the tournament. So only one player had to do well for the rate to bloom.

However, despite appearances, Izzet Phoenix's win rate is staggering considering that players were running a ridiculous amount of Surgical Extractions in London. The card that players are convinced is critical to beating Phoenix, despite everything, was the most popular card in London, and five Phoenix players still managed 8-2 or better. Granted, there are other (better) options for defeating Phoenix, but Surgical's speed and splashability, as well as the perception players have of it being great against Phoenix, continue to make it a favored sideboard choice. In terms of other hate, Relic of Progenitus was 15th place and Path to Exile 4th. Players were clearly aware of Phoenix, prepared for it, and yet Phoenix was still winning more than everyone else. Given that the field was extremely hostile, a 52.7% is very high. This makes me think Phoenix is running out of time.

My Take

I predicted that the metagame was relatively settled going into London, with Phoenix on Top followed by Humans with the rest of the meta trailing in their wake. I didn't account for Tron's popularity, but other than that London's results do look very similar to GP Yokohama's which were consistent with all the earlier results. Thus it's safe to say that Izzet Phoenix is clearly on top of the metagame with Humans, Tron, and Grixis Death's Shadow being strong contenders.

As for Phoenix itself, I've remained hopeful that the metagame would naturally adjust and push it back down. That doesn't appear to be happening. Izzet Phoenix continues to show up in large numbers and then turn those into high tournament placings. Couple that with a high win rate in a very hostile field, and it's hard to argue that Izzet Phoenix can't overcome any obstacle. This moves the deck from an interesting anomaly into a metagame trend, and potentially a dangerous one.

I don't think it's inherently broken by any means. However, all the data is indicating that it's taking up a worrying amount of Day 2 space and is arguably dominating Modern. This often warrants action. It could be winning too early too often as well, but only Wizards knows if that rumor is true. I imagine based on available data that action will be taken against Izzet Phoenix. My guess is a Faithless Looting ban to nuke the best starts.

The Mulligan Question

This begs the question of whether the London Mulligan will be sticking around. The simple answer is that I don't think the Mythic was a very good test. As a result, I can't determine anything conclusive about the mulligan change. The fundamental problem was that there were too many variables at play per my disclaimers. If this weren't a prerelease draft, pros would have had more time to test Modern. This could have led them to make less safe deck choices.

Open decklists also punished players looking to branch out. A lot of the value of picking a wonky rogue deck is opponents being confused by something unexpected. That wasn't possible. Therefore, London was not really a test of what the mulligan was capable of because there was no incentive to push the envelope. As a result the rule didn't get a very rigorous field trial, just a nice safe unveiling. Thus I don't consider it valid data.

The real test is ongoing (at time of writing) via MTGO. Unless Wizards has a massive change of heart, we'll never know the exact effect of the mulligan because we'll never see the data. If testimonials saying the change is fine are correct, the rule will stick. If Ken's is more accurate, then it may not. Many definitely think the rule is good, and apparently Mark Rosewater said in a panel that he expected it to stick. Therefore, I expect that it would take a major distortion in the MTGO metagame to prevent this change.

What Comes Next?

Even if Wizards doesn't change the mulligan rules nor ban anything from Izzet Phoenix, there are big changes on the horizon for Modern. Specifically, Modern Horizons' spoiler season begins later this month. Even if the set's impact is muted, as I expect, it will still shake things up and is guaranteed to bring in some fresh blood. I look forward to seeing what shakes out soon.

War of the Spark Combos and Synergies

Posted on April 30, 2019April 30, 2019 by David Schumann

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While I know I typically am the writer who looks at MTG Finance from the macro level, I do like to jump into the micro level stuff from time to time and War of the Spark has got me excited. This is the first set in a long time that I've actually pre-ordered more than one box and I've also purchased quite a few Feather, the Redeemer specs, many of which have already turned solid profits.

Plenty of other writers have already discussed the Feather, the Redeemed specs and we have seen some other interesting combo's including Celestial Kirin + Ugin's Construct which when you cast the construct for 0 destroys all lands. Though we don't know if that is a viable combo or not.

Some other potential specs I haven't heard people talking about:

Standard

With regards to Feather, the Redeemed, there aren't any standard infinite 2-card combos, simply some interesting synergies.

Feather, the Redeemed

Essence Capture

This provides you with an Essence Scatter every turn while making a creature bigger each time. While this combo is very color heavy and it won't be online until likely turn 4 if you have the colors it would lock out a lot of midrange style decks. Unfortunately, Essence Capture is only an uncommon so the price ceiling is very low, thus the potential ROI (Return on Investment) is also not that great.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Essence Capture

Ajani's Influence

This combo will add +2/+2 to a creature every one of your turns and digs you for another white card within the top 5. While it may not be as impressive it does provide repeatable card advantage within an RWx deck. I like this option enough to pick up a playset myself, though admittedly when I bought them I was actually thinking of it more for Commander. This spec does have some legs on it though, as you can only get a single copy in the Ajani planeswalker decks, which don't tend to be extremely popular and thus not a lot of copies enter the market. That being said it isn't absurdly powerful and I do fear this one may end up in the old "box of shame specs."

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ajani's Influence

Ancient Animus

While this combo requires you to be at least Naya colors, it does provide a slow continual growth of your Feather. She's also a legendary that keeps fighting opposing creatures, meaning you could lock your opponent out of playing creatures for the rest of the game. Sadly this one is a common so any potential ROI on this is basically nothing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Animus

Jaya's Immolating Inferno

While you have to keep the X in this spell to under 4, unless you can grow Feather's toughness; this does allow you to burn an opponents creature for 3 and your opponent for 3 every single turn, which against some decks would likely prove unbeatable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jaya's Immolating Inferno

Tamiyo, Collector of Tales

Planewide Celebration

While this doesn't come off as the most impressive combo, Tamiyo allows you to return a card from your graveyard to your hand, and because Planewide Celebration allows you to proliferate three times and then use one of its other modes, you can keep casting Celebration every turn while still getting one other mode on it. This is obviously quite mana intensive, however, with something like Nissa, Who Shakes the World you can get this going as quickly as turn 5. I don't know how powerful this combo could be, but it's important to note that it can be done with just green mana. If you throw in something like Magistrate's Scepter you could easily take infinite turns. I haven't heard anyone mention this interaction before and my love of homebrews makes me really want to build something around this. If you come up with any "must includes" please comment below or message me on QS discord.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Magistrate's Scepter

Doom Whisperer

Bolas' Citadel

While this one obviously requires a lot of life, you can use the Doom Whisperer to sculpt the top of your deck and remove lands you don't need. Now the rest of your deck will likely need to be made up of spells that gain you some amount of life to keep this gravy train rolling. However, if you can resolve both these cards with a high life total you can dig through a lot of your deck. The fact that this interaction is entirely possible in Mono-Black means that it could fit into a multitude of potential shells. The most obvious pairing is with white thanks to cards like Revitalize and Ritual of Rejuvenation, which thanks to gaining more life than they cost, come off as free spells with added benefits.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doom Whisperer

Ral, Storm Conduit

+2x Expansion//Explosion

+ any instant or sorcery that costs 4 or less.

This one has been discussed before but it's still worth noting. While it seems somewhat convoluted, the basic idea is that you cast your cheap instant or sorcery with a Ral in play and then Expansion it, and then Expansion the Expansion. This creates an infinite loop of copies that then trigger Ral's static ability, pinging the opponent to death. It's not even that mana intensive, as if the Ral is already in play you can go off with only 5 mana at instant speed. However, it does require three specific cards and then one that could be one of many, so it may not be all that consistent. It is important to note that Ral's first ability can help you dig towards a missing piece and his second is pretty powerful on its own.

Conclusion

While none of these appear to be anywhere near as broken as Deceiver Exarch + Splinter Twin, whenever you have any type of powerful combos in standard it's important to take notice, especially given that the Standard card pool is so much smaller than eternal formats, so the ability to interact with these types of combos is far more limited.

While I didn't find anything that screams "perfect speculation target" while looking for these combos, I think it's important to make people aware of them as once the Magic hivemind gets its wheels turning we can very quickly come to an optimized build. If you felt like I missed any standard combos that we now have thanks to War of the Spark, please let me know below.

Insider: QS Cast #120 – War of the Spark Reactions [Unlocked]

Posted on April 29, 2019 by Chaz V

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Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

QS Writer Chris Martin joins the Cast!
War of the Spark Reactions- Pre Orders
Additional Commander Reactionary buying?
Insider Questions

Cards to Consider

*This Podcast was Recorded on 04/04/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!