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Planes Talkers: War of the Spark Spoiler Review

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At last, War of the Spark is fully spoiled! From a design perspective, I think War bodes well for Modern's future, and more specifically for the upcoming Modern Horizons. And the set itself has some juicy cards, too. While David's review sought to quell the excitement surrounding some perhaps-not-excellent War cards, this article goes over the expansion's cards I think are most likely to see Modern play, covering both its flexible format additions and promising new planeswalkers.

Bend It Back

Some of War's standout cards employ a tried-and-true way to enter Modern: with flexibility. This is the kind of card that has me most excited about Wizards's current design direction. If Horizons is indeed full of cards designed in this way, but deemed a little too strong for Standard, the set is bound to have some serious ramifications.

There are plenty of cards that go the other way, of course—Price of Betrayal, The Elderspell, and Dovin's Veto are all undercosted for their potential ceiling, but extremely narrow. In this section, we'll look at the cards with wider applications that are still aggressively-costed enough for Modern.

Liliana's Triumph

Liliana's Triumph was one of the first cards spoiled from War, and got the ball rolling with a bullet; I'd heard players perk up at the idea of a Diabolic Edict reprint in Horizons, and here was a strictly better version: non-targeting and with some upside! While Triumph will be cast as plan-old Edict most of the time, its synergy with Liliana planeswalkers gives an additional buff to 8Rack and BGx. Being able to throw out Triumph during the opponent's draw step can essentially deny them a turn, much like Kolaghan's Command sometimes does.

BG Rock is the most obvious home for Triumph, as it's the only one of the two aforementioned decks that actually puts up results. But that deck is already packed with role-players and often splits its removal slots meticulously. I doubt Triumph stabilizes as more than a one- or two-of there, but expect to occasionally run into it.

Angarth's Rampage

Angarth's Rampage, too, fits into Rock-style decks, if forcing a red splash—Jund and Mardu can run it, anyway. And so can the Rakdos Stompy deck I covered a couple weeks ago, which can't hate having more removal options that get around its own Chalice of the Voids. That's a deck that I can see actually fitting Rampage despite the card's relevant lameness, as it badly craves ways to answer planeswalkers that resolve over lock pieces (and requires some amount of creature removal anyway).

Lazotep Plating

This card is more my speed, or at least my colors. Lazotep Plating might look a bit one-dimensional on the surface, but I think it does a surprising amount for its cost. In protect-the-queen-style decks like Delver, Plating helps beat attrition opponents by stopping removal spells (even the now-powercrept Abrupt Decay) while insulating against Liliana of the Veil. But while Blossoming Defense, with its power/toughness boost, has seen some play in Infect, Mizzium Skin and its kin haven't been so fortunate. So what sets Plating aside from the other protection spells?

For starters, Plating doesn't just protect threats. It gives "permanents you control" hexproof, letting it protect lands from Ghost Quarter, artifacts from Abrade, or planeswalkers from Maelstrom Pulse. And it stops multi-targeting spells like Electrolyze or Kolaghan's Command.

The card also has a second mode: it gives its caster hexproof. In other words, even with no creatures in play, the instant counters burn to the face, Liliana of the Veil's downticks, and the edict effects outlined above, all while making a body. I think this card has just enough going on to occasionally show up in sideboards across a range of archetypes.

Narset's Reversal

Narset's Reversal reminds me of Remand. Its UU cost is more prohibitive, but it offers players a higher ceiling, if a less stable effect. Instead of drawing a card, pilots get to copy an opponent's spell after returning it to the hand, which can range from useless to excellent. A major drawback of Reversal compared with Remand: Reversal can only hit instants and sorceries, while Remand can bounce creatures, planeswalkers, you name it. That makes the new instant's uses more limited than the former's by default, but it still has its big moments.

In a creature mirror, bouncing a removal spell and pointing the copy at an opponent's threat provides a huge tempo swing. Multi-mode spells also offer a lot of versatility. The best spells to target, though, are ones with additional costs. For cards like Collective Brutality, the escalate has already been paid, so opponents will have to discard again to get the same effect next time. But we still benefit from the improved copy. Or imagine casting Reversal on an opponent's Lightning Axe—not only does our creature live to swing another day, but opponents hemorrhage resources and even lose that Thing in the Ice in the process!

Remand was also used in its heyday to counter a pilot's own spells, generally in response to countermagic. Reversal can be used for the same purpose. Here, instead of drawing a mystery card, pilots get their spell back for another go-round—probably an upgrade if they want to copy it in the first place.

One more aspect to consider is that Reversal doesn't "counter" spells, it just bounces them. That gives it the same odd utility as Venser, Shaper Savant and Unsubstantiate in that it temporarily deals with uncounterable spells such as Supreme Verdict or Dovin's Veto.

With all that being said, though, I think Reversal's high-ceiling cases will prove rare enough to mostly keep this card out of Modern. It could still show up as a one-of in control and tempo decks, as weird role-players tend to occupy those slots.

Return to Nature

I've long praised Destructive Revelry in Modern, and have included it in many of my Delver decks. Even in Ancient Grudge colors, that 2 damage adds up when you're swinging, and can be worth giving up the flashback. There's also the added utility of hitting enchantments to consider.

Return to Nature gives up that 2 damage, but adds even more utility: it hits cards in the graveyard. I can think of plenty of instances in this iteration of Modern where I'd rather have the functionality of Coffin Purge than 2 damage on my Naturalize. Against Arclight Phoenix, for instance. Or Dredge! Not that Return is a great sideboard option against Phoenix decks (although it does hit Pyromancer's Ascension), or that there aren't better cards to run for Dredge. But Return does provide a little extra incidental hate for graveyard decks if it's in the sideboard.

Return also seems good at nabbing random Snapcaster targets. The card might come in for those matchups to hit pesky enchantments (Runed Halo) or artifacts (Batterskull), but boasts additional roles when those cards aren't around.

Blast Zone

Engineered Explosives on a colorless land? Now that's flexibility! I've heard two statements over and over when it comes to evaluating this card:

  • Blast Zone is powerful enough that many decks will tweak their manabase to accommodate it.
  • Colorless Eldrazi Stompy wants four copies.

I disagree with both, and on the same basis: Modern is too fast for this card to fulfill its intended purpose with any kind of frequency. The color-light decks that could fit Blast Zone will probably have something better to play a lot of the time, like Field of Ruin or manlands; I do see Zone making a splash in colorless big mana decks, though, such as Tron.

As for Colorless Eldrazi, the card is certainly a shoe-in there; here's yet another mainboard answer to those pesky Ensnaring Bridges, not to mention an anti-aggro tool. Heck, it even removes Stony Silence, a card that otherwise neuters our grinding plan against white decks! But four copies is far too many. We'll draw multiples in excess when having a split of utility lands would have helped win us the game. I'm starting with two copies, and have made room for a 24th land to accommodate both Karn and Zone. Since last week's article, I've cut a Gemstone and an Endless One for the Zones, and swapped the sideboard Torpor Orb for that second Gut Shot (unrelated, but maybe useful).

Parsing the Planeswalkers

War of the Spark is chock-full of planeswalkers, and I think some of them will find their way into Modern. David has expressed disappointment at the design of these walkers, essentially boiling them down to "attackable enchantments." But not all decks attack or house reach, so in many cases, players will be getting a walker (or, enchantment-plus-ability) on the cheap.

My strategic beef with the walkers is a different one: they seem to lack cohesion. Not cohesion from a flavor standpoint necessarily, but in terms of abilities, the walkers tend to have effects that don't interact with one another. I think that can keep them from seeing widespread play, as nobody wants to overpay for just half of a card when the other half is functionally dead. Take Saheeli, Sublime Artificer. This card seems fit for decks that chain together noncreature spells, but it's a full mana more expensive than Young Pyromancer, and for what? It's harder to remove? The second ability is just not so relevant in those decks, making this actually just an attackable enchantment with some extra text.

The upside to this predicament is that when both halves are good, the walker in question ends up being great. In this section, we'll look at the walkers that might pull off that balance by breaking down their static abilities, their plusses/minuses, and their possible homes.

Narset, Parter of Veils

Static: Hoses cantripping decks like Izzet Phoenix, Hollow One, and maybe even Tron.

Minus: Finds answers to stuff, or perhaps a combo.

Homes: Turning off Faithless Looting is big game in Modern right now, but at three mana, this effect leaves much to be desired. As a sideboard card against draw-heavy decks, Narset might be a little slow at that price point. I think it has a better shot in the mainboard of an answer-based deck that likes to tap out, like UW Midrange.

Ashiok, Dream Render

Static: Hoses searching, most notably fetchlands. Doesn't prevent opponents from searching for our own Field of Ruins, though.

Minus: Mills either player and nukes the opponent's graveyard.

Homes: Ashiok disrupts on two levels by stopping searches and graveyard interactions. That makes it better against more decks, but not especially good against one deck, as most graveyard decks are light on searching and vice versa; here we again have the problem of these walkers being pulled in many directions at once. The "mill 4" is only really a gameplan in, well, Mill. Still, I can see self-mill proving useful to power up creatures like Pteramander or assemble a value/combo engine.

Domri, Anarch of Bolas

Static: An anthem. Useful for winning Goyf wars or just getting opponents dead. Always live in aggro decks.

Plus: As a rare walker, Domri has a plus ability, too. This one generates mana, which is pretty much always useful, and comes with a can't-be-countered clause—niche, but nice.

Minus: In a deck with large creatures, can act as heavy-duty removal for larger threats.

Homes: I'm eager to try Domri in GRx Moon, a deck I've now been shopping for almost four years. My latest build featured Sarkhan, Fireblood as another way to ditch extra pieces and lands, a strategy Domri supports by producing mana. When using Domri's minus, Tarmogoyf wins every Tarmo-fight thanks to the anthem.

Teferi, Time Raveler

Static: Limits when opponents can cast spells. Only relevant against decks with instants (half of them?).

Plus: Will need to be played in a deck that can benefit from this effect to be worthwhile at all.

Minus: A very useful bounce ability for decks that can struggle with certain permanents, including hosers and creatures. The cantrip at the very least lets Teferi replace itself and start gradually ticking up to another bounce at no cost in cards.

Homes: I agree with David that Teferi is quite narrow, and probably at strategic odds with UW Control. But I think the walker could have a home in some sort of UWx aggro-control shell where its plus enables instant-speed Serum Visions. These decks like to hold up their mana anyway, and Teferi makes their choices easier. The bounce also gives them random game against stuff that could otherwise lock them out.

Karn, the Great Creator

Static: Stony Silence is already a great reason to be splashing white in Modern, so it's no secret how great this static is against the right deck. It is, however, useless against a large portion of the field.

Plus: Can mostly just be used in specific decks that have artifacts they'd like to swing with. Also turns enemy artifact lands and 0-drops into 0/0s, which kills them, but I don't think this effect is very relevant, as tho decks are already hosed significantly by the static effect.

Minus: The real draw to Karn, this ability lets players dig out any artifact from their sideboard.

Homes: Despite being a colorless Stony, most decks won't want Karn; it's just too much mana to pay for the effect. Those that do are the ones that already have sideboards full of juicy targets. The walker seems like a great fit in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, as elaborated on here, as well as for Gx Tron. The latter would already work up to 10 mana for Ulamog, and Karn asks the same amount before assembling the Mycosynth Lattice combo that prevents opponents from tapping their lands for mana—the cost can even be split. Ulamog is still better under pressure, as it creates a big blocker and removes two permanents right away. But on an empty board, Karn will seal the deal, as well as offering utility throughout the game with its minus.

Winning the War

There are no losers during spoiler season. Which cards do you think show the most promise? Let me know in the comments!

Tales from the Buylist #10 – Reviewing My Hits and Misses

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Achievement unlocked! I've been writing for Quiet Speculation for ten weeks now. It's been an immense pleasure interacting with many of you in the community and having in-depth discussions about a wide variety of topics.

I started writing for QS with the intention of creating market-watch articles and discussing how to make picks based on current trends. With ten weeks under my belt, I think now is an appropriate time to start reviewing my picks and taking inventory.

Hit or Miss?

My first pick was Stoneforge Mystic, and I think I called this one fairly well. This card was periodically spiking and dropping due to recurrent B&R announcements, but I noticed a net gain almost every time this happened.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

As you can see, it's still following this pattern. I'm currently sitting on a few of these myself and pretty happy with the growth. All I can do is hope they dodge a reprint at rare in Modern Horizons. The potential for cards that were never legal in Modern to appear in Modern Horizons is there, but its current playability in Legacy gives a bit of bad-luck protection either way.

Final Verdict: Hit

There was an error retrieving a chart for Panharmonicon

From my second article, I outlined the cards in Kaladesh that I thought were going to be significant players in the long term, so anything I mentioned there will still need some time to pop.

I still believe Panharmonicon was the most important card of the set for its Commander playability. Foil copies are the play here, and I believe they'll be a smart pickup under the $20 mark. Non-foils have the same potential for growth, but I fear that there's a good chance we could see a reprint in a supplementary set as early as this year.

Final Verdict: TBD

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deploy the Gatewatch

When the first bit of information was released on War of the Spark, I knew that cards like Deploy the Gatewatch would be significant spec opportunities in the very near future. I was fortunate enough to pick up a small stash of these under the dollar mark, but the ship on that has mostly sailed.

Many buylists have adopted the new adjusted price of around $5, and are willing to buy them up on a tight margin, as a few folks in our Insider Discord pointed out to me this week. If you got in at the ground floor and have some stocked up, I think now is a perfectly acceptable time to get out of these to free up money for other opportunities. The same goes for Oath of Nissa, Call the Gatewatch, and any other cards in this class.

Final Verdict: Hit

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

As Arclight Phoenix rose to power in Modern, I was beginning to feel like I was talking about it every week. It just kept growing and growing, and I was almost sure that they were a safe hold until the last few months of their legality in Standard. I had picked up several playsets of these at the beginning of Guilds of Ravnica Standard, when the card was well under $10. When the deck first saw some success, the price went up a bit, and I was happy to out all the copies I had for a few bucks' profit.

I never expected that the card would completely take over Modern. Less than a month later the price skyrocketed to around $30 a copy, sold out at most major retailers. It even continued to grow from there, as it took down Top 8 after Top 8 at the premier level. As a chase mythic that was undoubtedly helping to sell Guilds of Ravnica booster packs, I never would have guessed that it would be reprinted so soon.

As we now know, the Challenger Decks this year included a single copy in the Izzet deck Arcane Tempo. The announcement of the finalized decklists has already sent the price on a downward trend, which will only keep going as players are able to flip these decks for value on buylists.

I definitely was wrong about this one nearly every step of the way, and the card's presence in such a product shattered my previously held expectations. You win some, you lose some. The lesson I learned here is that I should hold a few copies when selling into a spike, just in case. I don't regret selling into the first spike, but I wholly regret not having any copies to sell into the next one.

Final Verdict: Small Hit, Big Miss

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

One of my more recent picks I've been interested in is Primeval Titan. It's got a lot going for it in the way of viability in Modern, where it sees play in RG Valakut and Amulet Titan. Some successful finishes have driven a small increase in price over the past week.

There are four relevant printings of this card—Magic 2011, Magic 2012, Modern Masters 2015, and Iconic Masters—but all of them have been at mythic rare. Though the expected buy-in is already around $10 a copy, I imagine it won't take much for this card to double in price, making it an okay price point for entry. As Prime Time decks become more equipped to fight Arclight Phoenix and Death's Shadow strategies, it will only lead to upward price movement.

As a side note, I attached Scapeshift to this same trajectory, and I feel that their prices will be fairly lock-step in the future. I would lean towards holding onto these in the future.

Final Verdict: Small Hit with Potential

Oddball Picks

To close us out here, I'd like to outline my oddball picks that saw a little bit of movement. I wouldn't call these wins, but I wouldn't count them as losses either. My number one rule with cards like these is to out them as soon as a decent profit is available, although I'll be holding a copy or two just in case. I always try to keep this in mind—you didn't make money if you didn't sell the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knowledge Pool

Knowledge Pool was a call I made in response to Teferi, Time Raveler being spoiled, and I wasn't alone in speculating on this card. There was quite a run on these at the sub-$1 price, and I was happy to get all the copies I currently have. I truly wish I had gone in on foils instead, but I'll probably make out okay here.

I'm willing to bet that people will start exploring the Teferi Knowledge Pool deck again in Modern, regardless of whether or not it's a successful strategy. This will drive many buylists to adjust to the new price, providing an outlet for copies you may be holding.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Decimator Web

When Atraxa, Praetors' Voice was bought out on PAX weekend, I immediately started combing Gatherer for cards that may still be flying under the radar. Many pointed to Inexorable Tide, which I was pretty supportive of, but my underdog pick was Decimator Web in foil.

Being able to apply infect counters without doing combat damage, along with the other mean effects this card has upon activation, struck me as casual gold. Admittedly, my experience of having this card played against me in a friend's Atraxa deck led me to pick up some copies, but it appears that others have had a similar experience, as the card is listing a bit higher than the weeks previous.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

Watching the Modern metagame evolve every week influenced this one. I noticed a lot of Humans lists starting to adopt Anafenza, the Foremost in order to stand up to the graveyard menaces in Arclight Phoenix and Dredge strategies.

I recognize that there are a ton of these out there, and it will take a lot more tournament success to cause a buyout. However, I think there's a bit more room for growth here. Many suspect that Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings are on the chopping block for the next B&R announcement. If these were banned, I'm pretty confident that Humans would become the premier aggro strategy once again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

The last pick which I haven't seen too much movement on was Jeskai Ascendancy. I haven't had a good chance to write about it yet, but I believe this strategy could come back into favor in Modern, especially if we get more potent cantrips in Modern Horizons.

Fatestitcher is another key piece of the strategy, and I'll be looking at picking up many more copies of both going into the summer. LSV recently recorded a moderately successful league with the deck, and I'm pretty hyped about the deck, at least from a play perspective.

Bring it on Home

I'm pretty happy with my successes here. With War of the Spark spoilers coming to an end this week, I'll be watching closely for any new items to go in on.

The biggest leg up for me on most of these picks was the Insider Discord, where I was able to discuss some of my picks as I was adding them to my cart, and ultimately get to the checkout screen. As well, if anyone reading this out there would like to brainstorm ideas, you can always reach out to me on social media or leave a comment below!

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

The State of MTGO Speculation

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I. MTGO Content is Back!

It's been a while since I last wrote an MTGO finance article for QS—since just before Christmas actually, when prices on MTGO were in freefall. Like most of you with MTGO collections, I was despondent as the value of my cards fell precipitously, and I was worried about what was transpiring on the platform.

Of course, what made it worse is that much of it was not under my control or something I could easily predict the end of. How would Alli Medwin deal with treasure chests? How many people would continue to play Standard on the platform? Would people stop playing Modern, Legacy, and Pauper altogether in favor of Arena? How many would continue to do Limited on MTGO?

It has been a difficult several months for me. Amidst this uncertainty, I've had to question my own engagement with Magic and MTGO. As longtime QS readers know, I use speculation on MTGO as a primary means to finance playing on MTGO. I love drafting and cubing, and those are costly to do unless you're subsidizing it with sustained returns from speculation and investment.

II. Is there a Path Forward for MTGO Speculation?

This is a question I've been mulling over for several months, and I'm happy to say that I believe the answer is yes.

Matt Lewis is currently writing about a new strategy for investing in mythics and foil mythics, and I will be incorporating that strategy into my portfolio. I'm also happy to say that I think traditional speculation is now viable again, although the timing windows for investment will likely be different than those I established in my Calendar Guide.

What I'd like to do today is go over some new baseline facts for MTGO investing. The first key is understanding what has changed about MTGO in the wake of Arena.

1) Supply is lower than at any time in recent memory.

Fewer people are playing Draft and Sealed on MTGO, at least in comparison to Kaladesh block in 2016-2017, when MTGO introduced leagues. Contrary to some of the apocalyptic and dismissive language we sometimes hear, there are still plenty of Limited players on MTGO.

It's hard to look at numbers of league participants alone to determine just how steep the drop-off is, but overall each Limited league has between 30% and 50% less participants than it did during the heights of Dominaria. The drop-off has been more acute in the competitive leagues than in the friendly and intermediate leagues.

2) Redemption accounts for a greater portion of demand than ever before.

Alongside the drop in influx supply, digital demand for that supply has also plummeted. During October and November, there were roughly 3,000 people in the Standard leagues. In February and March, that number was closer to 900.

Guilds of Ravnica and Ravnica Allegiance supply has been decent at satisfying demand (only decent though, more on that below). But Ixalan, Rivals of Ixalan, Dominaria, and Core 2019 all have way too much supply for their present demand. Those sets were drafted before Arena entered open beta, and so there is a glut of supply. Hence:

Unlike the sets before it, Guilds of Ravnica will not crater as steeply once its redemption period ends in May, simply because there's less supply to go around. The same is doubly true for Ravnica Allegiance, which has even less supply than Guilds of Ravnica (lower rate of drafting, and less time being drafted).

From the speculator's perspective, Guilds of Ravnica should be viewed as a transition set. Personally I'm going to stick more to investing in Ravnica Allegiance and War of the Spark because of uncertainty about Guilds of Ravnica.

What seems true about both GRN and RNA, though, is this: Supply and digital demand are low enough to where redemption is eating up an outsized percentage of demand. In fact, it could be argued that the influx of supply is too low to meet the demand for redemption.

3) A new normal is being reached.

What speculators need is stability, and we're finally getting that. The bloodletting appears to be over.

Standard and Limited participation numbers seem to have stabilized; if anything, they'll likely return to slow growth. Modern continues to grow in popularity on MTGO, up 50% from earlier this year. (Much of this is expected, as interest in Standard wanes. I've personally found it impossible to will myself to play a single Arena ladder game for weeks, and I know I'm not alone.) Pauper and Legacy have seen increases in popularity as well, up 40% and 10% respectively from earlier this year.

A new equilibrium for supply and demand is being reached. This is why card values on MTGO are broadly going up, and why the value of event tickets has stabilized, fluctuating between $0.75 to $0.80. (Note: Do not purchase event tickets from the MTGO Store. Purchase them from reputable card chains for about $0.89 instead for a solid 11% discount).

After talking with one of the bot chains, I believe the selloff is over. Ticket prices are low right now because there's a glut of them in the system. We should expect this price to go back up as more sets get redeemed and players buy tickets from bot chains instead of the MTGO Store. I'm hoping the value of a ticket will be back up to $0.85 by this fall.

But the important point is that participation on the platform appears to be stable—and is therefore once again something predictable we can have confidence in.

Thus I am confident that the savvy speculator will be able to generate good returns on Standard cards based around the same three modes of exploitation as before: redemption, seasonal set cycles and rotations, and metagame changes.

III. Treasure Chests: What is Different and What is the Same?

As I argued in my December article, treasure chests are the primary driver behind collapsing eternal card prices. For this reason Matt and I have strongly cautioned QS readers against investing in Eternal cards for quite a while, and we will continue to do so.

Treasure chests are still being used to pump extra Eternal supply into the system. While speculation on Standard cards is possible and potentially lucrative, speculating on Eternal cards should only be done with an eye toward short-term gains. I don't think there's ever a good reason to speculate on an Eternal card with the intention of holding it for more than two months.

What has changed since December is that the Standard commons and uncommons have been removed from the chests, making one of my favorite investment strategies viable again—investing in cheap uncommons. Ravnica Allegiance is still being drafted, and yet three uncommons still remain above bulk:

IV. Wrapping Up: What to Expect in the Upcoming Days

Please leave any questions for me here or in the QS Discord and I'll get back to you. There's honestly way too much to talk about for one article, so your questions will be essential for fleshing everything out. There are even implications for paper finance as well that I didn't discuss here.

Next week I'll be releasing an article about speculating on Ravnica Allegiance cards. Thanks for reading, and I'll see y'all next time!

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Kyle Rusciano

Kyle started playing Magic with his little brother when they saw some other kids at a baseball camp playing. His grandma bought them some Portal: Second Age decks, and a hobby was born. Kyle played from Weatherlight through Invasion, then took a lengthy break until 2013. Now a PhD student in the humanities, the Greek mythology component of Theros compelled Kyle to return to the game. He enjoys playing Pauper and Limited as well as focusing on MTGO finance and card design. Follow him on Twitter at @KangaMage!

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Posted in Finance, Free, Magic Card Market Theory, Modern, MTGO, Ravnica Allegiance, StandardTagged , , 10 Comments on The State of MTGO Speculation

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Fighting for Space: War of the Spark Edition

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With War of the Spark's spoiler season winding down, testing and brewing is accelerating. As per my usual, I've been working through interesting cards to find out how useful they'll be in Modern. And as is usually the case, the result has been a swath of interesting results, though nothing especially groundbreaking. I expect there to be a number of decent roleplayers to emerge, if no format-warping Arclight Phoenix. Today we'll examine several cards with potential, but that may struggle to find a home in Modern.

Metagame Checkup

As is now becoming tradition, I'm going to check in on the latest metagame data from Sao Paulo. Starting with the Day 2 data is encouraging: Izzet Phoenix only made up 12.8% of the field, just ahead of Grixis Death's Shadow at 10.1%. Again, I don't know the starting population, and without that, can't tell if this is simply reflective of that population or the deck's strength. However, the fact that the numbers are down form previous levels is promising. If Phoenix's Day 2 shares have been a function of population, then this suggests that its popularity is waning and the metagame will successfully self-police. If it's been thanks to strength, then the data suggests that the metagame is adapting. Hopefully this is the start of a trend and not a deviation, but we'll need more data to be sure.

The Top 8 did have two Phoenix decks, but both lost in the quarterfinals. This doesn't really mean anything, since the real story of Phoenix has been its Day 2 numbers, and not events won. Humans is also back with a vengeance. Spirits was a bad matchup and inhabits the same metagame niche, so with that gone and given Reflector Mage's power against Thing in the Ice, it makes sense for the old best aggro deck to be back in force.

Finale of Promise

The first card this week is Finale of Promise. This is the kind of big flashy card that really gets the juices flowing and is what makes spoiler season great. However, let's get one thing clear: Finale is never getting cast for more than six mana. Decks rarely run anything over four mana to begin with, and most Modern decks won't be able to cast it for more than that in the first place. Mono-Red Tron is not a thing, and while combo decks can make that kind of mana, why wouldn't they use it to just win the game rather than getting tons of value replaying their cards?

Realistically, Finale will be cast for three to four, which is fine. There's a lot of powerful one-mana instants and sorceries in Modern. I expect the target will be four most of the time, since that breaks even on mana, but even casting two one-mana spells for three isn't bad. The problem is that there really isn't a deck that wants that effect that doesn't already have it in some form, and Finale is arguably worse than them.

The Burn Problem

The main home I've seen discussed is, naturally, Burn. However, I'm extremely skeptical Finale will work there. Much like Light Up the Stage, Finale proposes to solve a card advantage and reach problem that Burn doesn't have; just like Light, I can't see it working out. Why exactly should Burn run a card that is dead against graveyard hate just to play more burn from the graveyard? For three mana in the same situation, it could play an uncounterable Exquisite Firecraft. Burn's card advantage is the opponent's life total, and trying to stuff in card draw just doesn't work.

The Snapcaster Problem

If not in Burn, then what about fair decks? In a deck like Grixis Death's Shadow you can hit Thought Scour and Thoughtseize, but again you're getting two mana of cards for three mana in a deck that relies on mana efficiency. It also requires you to have eligible instants and sorceries in the graveyard in a deck that frequently feeds it all to Gurmag Angler. More generally, just playing Snapcaster Mage generates significant card advantage, and you get a creature out to potentially win the game. It seems to me that Finale suffers from the same problem Misson Briefing does: it's worse than Snap.

The Storm Problem

This strongly suggests that if Finale is ever to see play in Modern, it will be as a combo card. While I don't know which combo wants or needs Finale, casting spells from the graveyard is already part of Storm's game. A Finale for four provides four mana of cards (arguably more since Storm almost certainly chooses rituals and/or Manamorphose) and 3 storm count. That's pretty good. But Past in Flames costs the same amount and retrieves everything. Finale may be a nice supplement to that plan, but Past is more efficient.

Dovin's Veto

A card that I was initially very excited about but have since cooled on is Dovin's Veto. At first glance, the card seems amazing. For a slightly trickier mana cost, it's an uncounterable Negate. That's a huge boost for control. No more worries about Dispel or Pact of Negation winning the counter war: when Dovin says no, he means it.

Logically, I assumed that this was the end-all card for control mirrors, and that drawing the most would determine the winner. Then I thought about it some more and realized that I was on the wrong track. It may be a control breaker initially, but that will not last once players adjust. There's no way that control players will long allow the matchup to come down to a single, uncounterable counterspell.

The Counterflux Corollary

Therefore I don't think Veto will end up seeing much play precisely because it's so effective in control mirrors. I realize how weird that sounds, but consider Counterflux. Because it hits any spell and can be overloaded against Storm, Counterflux is arguably better than Veto despite costing more. However, it has never seen much play. Even during the height of the Twin era, Counterflux was never more than a 2-of in the sideboard. This seems counterintuitive considering how potent is was in the counterspell heavy mirror match.

However, it actually makes perfect since in context. Costing three certainly hurt, but Counterflux wasn't heavily played because of how good it actually was. It was the Last Word in a counter war and that was that. Because there was no waiting around to overwhelm the opponent with superior numbers of counters, players didn't bother trying. You should never fight battles you can't win given a choice, and Twin players chose to make Counterflux just a card rather than a mirror-breaker.

The first way was to recognize that "can't be countered" doesn't mean uncounterable. Twin decks played Remand, and a frequent strategy was to bait out the Counterflux and then Remand your own spell. As I remember, the key to the matchup was baiting the opponent, not actually countering anything. The other key was overwhelming them. There's only so much mana each turn, and forcing opponents to use theirs on their turn meant landing something important next turn.

Lesson from History

If Counterflux is any indication, Dovin's Veto will see play, but it won't be the end-all control mirror card that it appears. Instead, it will redefine the matchup. Right now the mirror is about card advantage. You win either with an early Search for Azcanta or by resolving and protecting a planeswalker. Since Veto makes the latter plan far harder, I predict it will be abandoned. Instead, savvy control players will pivot to creatures. Geist of Saint Traft and Vendilion Clique are far better in a Veto-heavy world. Then, Veto will lose value in favor of anti-creature cards, and the cycle will begin anew. Thus, Veto will see minimal actual play despite having a profound impact on Modern.

Angrath's Rampage

Wizards appears to have had edicts on their mind when making War. I don't know why, but the set is dense enough with edicts to make me wonder if there's a hexproof-heavy set coming. Typically, there's only one or two Diabolic Edict effects in Standard at a time, spread over multiple sets. Right now, between spoiled cards and planeswalker abilities, War has three. Of the currently known ones, Liliana's Triumph is clearly the best, and in the running for best edict of all time. Non-targeting, instant-speed discard and creature removal together for two mana suggests somebody at Wizards has a grudge against Bogles, and I'm sure Liliana's Triumph will see considerable play.

Angrath's Rampage is also a very good card despite being overshadowed. Forcing opponents to sacrifice a non-enchantment, non-land permanent of your choice is a very unique ability, and potentially very powerful. But that versatility is a ruse. The reason that edicts don't see much play in Modern is that creature and artifact decks tend to go wide, and there's often something weak or expendable. An aggro opponent will choose their weakest creature, while artifact decks will have Mox Opal or Springleaf Drum to feed the Rampage.

The only way for the edict to be good is when there's only one option, which will usually be the case when choosing planeswalker. Decks tend to only run a few, and frequently the same type, so Rampage will likely hit what pilots want. Except most decks don't run planeswalkers. The only decks I can think of which consistently run planeswalkers are Tron, BGx, and UW. While these are popular decks, I don't think they're popular enough to warrant maindeck Rampage.

Great Niche Appeal

That being said, Rampage could become a remarkably effective sideboard card against UW Control. Rampage hits all the costly win conditions in UW at huge discount, and there's no risk of chaff saving planeswalkers. Snapcaster Mage could save a Lyra Dawnbringer or Celestial Colonnade, but since UW rarely runs more than two Snapcasters, the risk is low. Even then, if UW is throwing a Snapcaster in just to save Lyra, that's at least some value, and it could be overcome with a Lightning Bolt.

The question I can't answer is if that's good enough. Rampage doesn't really change how games against UW play for its caster, but it does impact decision making across the table. UW has a very low quantity of win conditions but a lot of answers. It also has to use those answers to stay alive, and by the time it's deploying win conditions, it will be light on ways to protect them. Losing one or two may not be a big deal, but the risk of four effective edicts is nothing to sneeze at.

Forcing control players to reevaluate their gameplan could be effective and worth the sideboarding. It may also necessitate the control players changing their decks to include more win conditions, which is also a decent outcome for the types of deck that might run Rampage. The BRx midrange decks that could use Rampage tend to be good at attrition, but struggle to come from behind against control. Forcing control to be less pure control could pull the matchup more into midrange's favor.

Saheeli, Sublime Artisan

Last week, I was quite critical of the War planeswalkers because their reliance on the static abilities to be relevant made them bad enchantments. At the time, I had seen plenty with good abilities, but not good enough to warrant their weakness to attacking creatures. Since writing that, Saheeli, Sublime Artisan was spoiled, and I think she has a lot of promise. The primary job of any planeswalker is to generate a steady stream of card advantage, and making an overwhelming amount of tokens certainly counts. Whir Prison already runs Sai, Master Thopterist and sometimes the Thopter Foundry combo for that purpose. Which is a problem for Saheeli.

Obvious Comparison

Foundry combo is its own thing, and in a world full of graveyard hate it's not very good. Sai has his niche, and since it's the same one Saheeli might inhabit, let's directly compare the two:

  • Saheeli requires two hybrid-colored mana; Sai needs one blue mana
  • Saheeli is a planeswalker; Sai is a creature
  • Saheeli's activated ability has limited activations; Sai's is limited by fodder
  • Saheeli can be attacked; Sai can attack and block
  • Saheeli's ability has limited utility; Sai draws cards
  • Servos walk; Thopters fly
  • Saheeli triggers on any noncreature spell; Sai, only on artifacts

On balance, it appears that Saheeli is weaker than Sai. Where she gains in flexibility she loses on power. However, that's not the full story.

Odd Child

Almost all of Sai's positives and Saheeli's negatives only matter against creature decks. Sai's stats are only really relevant because he can block. Combo and control don't have many if any creatures to fly over (and control's fly anyway), so servos are functionally identical to thopters. Given that control has a much harder time removing planeswalkers than creatures, I'd argue that Saheeli is better than Sai in context.

Sai's activated ability is far better than Saheeli's in a vacuum. However, I don't know if it's actually relevant. I've never seen a deck with Sai struggle to keep their hand full when they want or need to. Generally, killing the opponent is better than just drawing cards. Sacrificing Thopters for profit rather than losing them to Terminus is potent, but I'd never expect sweepers post-board against Whir Prison or similar in the first place, so I doubt it will come up. Even then, you'd lose Sai too where Saheeli would live. I also wouldn't be surprised if there's some combo utility for Saheeli's ability. This is a case where Saheeli isn't as good as her competition on paper, but in the right context she may excel.

Modern Carries On

In the end, I expect Modern to absorb War of the Spark without much distrubance. I also expect this was a deliberate decision by Wizards, since Modern Horizons is coming soon. Why shake up everything now when they've built a set to do exactly that in just over a month? War appears to have a lot of decent roleplayers looking for decks, but nothing more substantial. However, I may well have overlooked something.

War of the Spark: Spoilers and More!

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War of the Spark is the 81st Magic expansion, set to be released in paper on May 3, 2019, and available on MTG: Arena on April 25, days before the prerelease. The set touts a planeswalker in every pack and will continue the story arc involving the conflict between the Gatewatch and Nicol Bolas.

Spoilers start officially on March 31st, tied to PAX East and the Mythic Invitational event. We'll be updating this post with more information as we get closer to release, so be sure to check back with us frequently!

April 22nd

Just when I thought we were all done with Spoiler Season, Wizards decides to throw on this amazing adornment to the Japanese release of War of the Spark.

Each of the 36 planeswalkers featured in the set will have an alternate art version drawn by high-profile Japanese artists in addition to the regular versions of the card possible in each pack. Collectors around the world will surely be clamoring for Japanese boxes of the set in hopes of pulling one of these alternate arts to spice up their decks. I won't post all of them here, but the full set of walkers is available in this gallery for your viewing pleasure.

It's difficult to figure a starting price for these as foreign cards have a lot of associated variables, but I can assure you these will be highly sought after cards, and will likely be the most desirable versions of these planeswalkers.  The highlight of the gallery has got to be the Liliana, Dreadhorde General by renowned Yoshitaka Amano, noted for his work on Speed Racer, Vampire Hunter D, and Final Fantasy. Also, is this a MF JoJo reference?

April 18th

Spoiler season is officially over, with every card in the set revealed and the storyline complete. Gideon dies a hero's death, and gets to finally take a well-deserved rest back on Theros. With that cat finally out of the bag, Wizards took an opportunity to show off the latest in the Spellbook series with Signature Spellbook: Gideon.

As was the case with the last Spellbook, Gideon's offering will include some on-flavor art, and a unique border. Standouts to me here are the new arts for Path to Exile and Rest in Peace. Speaking of alternate arts, Wizards made another significant announcement today.

The War of the Spark: Mythic Edition was announced, and will contain eight more planeswalkers getting the full art treatment. 12,000 copies will be available on Hasbro's eBay store on May 1st, 3PM EST. They're charging $249.99 for the box which will contain 24 packs and a purchase limit of two. It may sound a bit steep, but the full cart copies of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon will more than recoup the cost of the box. As we've seen with the last two offerings, these will sell out pretty fast (some Insiders in Discord estimated within minutes) so you'll want to be ready to check out as soon as the product is listed.

Outside of these shiny new baubles, spoiler season wrapped up with a slough of commons and uncommons, but I think these two are pretty interesting.

Despark strikes me as a great piece of sideboard tech, and I think there's a chance it could see some Modern play. Everybody's always looking for the next Tron Killer card, and this cleanly answers most of Tron's threats with the added bonus of exiling the card. Another card that strikes me as particularly powerful is Heartwarming Redemption. Besides showing off the happily ever after for Gideon on Theros, having a Wheel of Fortune effect in the format could prove interesting.

Overall, it was a pretty incredible spoiler season, and I absolutely loved how they executed these previews. Although leaks are an unfortunate side effect, I'm glad that things were trickled out a bit every day, which I think will contribute to the overall success of this set. As for MTG Finance implications going ahead, I think this set has plenty of room to move the needle on plenty more cards, including the ones within the set itself. I'll be watching the first weeks of Standard very closely and eagerly awaiting the MCQ decklists to release.

April 17th

Wednesday rolls around again to give us some new spoilers, drawing us pretty close to the end of the previews.

First we have the rest of the Finale cycle in Finale of Devastation and Finale of Glory. These two are very reminiscent of X spells we've seen before, like Green Sun's Zenith and Decree of Justice,  but with the added benefits when you dump 10 mana into them. Many are speculating that Finale of Devastation will be an incredibly powerful spell in Standard, and will definitely be making waves in Commander.

The selection of planeswalkers from the day was quite interesting. We get to some clearer versions of Ugin, the Ineffable and Gideon Blackblade that were previously leaked, and the new Narset, Parter of Veils at uncommon. This is quite a strong card at uncommon. In certain matchups, having a similar ability to Leovold, Emissary of Trest that prevents your opponents from cantripping can shut them out of the game, and searching the top four cards of your library for a spell is pretty nice to pair with it.

April 16th

This Tuesday's spoilers brought us some spicy new cards, although very few in comparison the comparative truckload we got yesterday.

Two more Finales were shown off today, Finale of Revelation and Finale of Eternity. These seem a little less powerful at the lower part of the range, but the flexibility they provide will probably make them fan favorites in Commander.

Speaking of fan favorites, Casualties of War looks to be exactly the type of card to get excited about. While the rate is a bit higher than something like Maelstrom Pulse or Abrupt Decay, Casualties of War will be able to take care of a lot of problems, albeit it one of each type at a time. Six mana is though, but at minimum you're going to target a creature and also Stone Rain your opponent. Bioessence Hydra strikes me as a very fun card as well. Getting rewarded for playing planeswalkers and using them seems great, and this hydra could get pretty large fairly quickly.

Oath of Kaya rounds out the day, showing us the story point where Kaya joins the Gatewatch. Aside from a nice flavorful enchantment, this represents what I think could be a key piece of removal in Standard. Lightning Helix that also buffers your life total and provides pseudo-protection for your planeswalkers isn't horrible, especially in a Superfriends list.

April 15th

Happy Tax Day to those of you in the states! Today brought us a ton of new cards to take a look at, but I'll try to boil it down to what I think were the most important.

Of course, we have to talk about the planeswalkers of the day first. We get our official spoiling of Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God, and this will probably be the most significant mythic of the set. As well, we have two more uncommon walkers in Ashiok, Dream Render and Huatli, Heart of the Sun. Ashiok kills search spells while Huatli carries the static ability of Doran the Siege Tower, contributing yet another butt-fight card to Standard. Sarkhan the Masterless rounds out the roster and has a offbeat, but awesome ability to turn your planeswalkers into 4/4 flying dragons. We've seen this sort of effect tied to cards like Form of the Dragon and Day of the Dragons before, but this will likely offer a solid win condition in planeswalker themed decks.

 

These spotlight spells are absolute hype condensed into card form. Aside from having some fantastic art which will be highly desirable in foil, we get some very potent abilities to go with it. The Elderspell is probably going to be one of the most impactful planeswalker answers ever printed, though I believe it will be largely relegated to sideboards. Commence the Endgame could be a control finisher in Standard outside of Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. Deliver Unto Evil looks great as a card and will probably be an EDH staple, but seems a bit lackluster outside of that context.

God-Eternal Oketra completes the cycle of gods, and this one may have some early financial impact on other cards. Whenever you cast a creature spell, you'll be making a 4/4 Zombie Warrior with Vigilance. An infinite loop of tokens is possible with Gravecrawler and Phyrexian Altar, both of which I'll be monitoring very closely over the next few days.

April 13th and 14th

There wasn't much in the way of official spoilers this weekend, but a few leaks came out a bit ahead of schedule due to some prerelease kits getting opened early.

While it is unfortunate that these were leaked before they could be officially spoiled in story order, we get a sneak-sneak preview of some strong cards. Ugin the Ineffable confirms the dragon planeswalker's inevitable confrontation with Nicol Bolas. As for the power level of the card, this Ugin will likely be be a relevant player in Modern Tron lists, and possibly Big Eldrazi in Legacy. Reducing the cost of colors cards will likely enable some deadly combos in Commander as well. Blast Zone does a nice impression of Engineered Explosives or Ratchet Bomb, and will probably see some play as a utility land somewhere. It loses points on flexibility for not being able to kill tokens at zero CMC, but will likely be useful in decks that can pay its activation cost. Finally, we see a big green spell in Planar Celebration. Foils of this will be a slam dunk for the Commander crowd.

April 12th, 2019

After the massive bomb drop that was Thursday's spoilers, we take a small breather today.

Niv-Mizzet Reborn was the most significant card of the day, and he even came with a nice mana rock to help cast it in Firemind Vessel. Commander players will be ecstatic to have another five-color option as a general, or another strong piece to existing decks like Ramos, Dragon Engine or Scion of the Ur-Dragon. The unique ability of this dragon will probably have players considering the two-mana charms from Return to Ravnica block for their deck, which may put pressure on foil copies.

Next, we got an interesting cycle of uncommons in the Bond of X cards. None of these strike me as needle-movers, but the flavor of these screams casual gold. I expect foils of these to be highly desirable, with many players looking to complete sets for their collections. Note the awesome symbol combinations of the guilds for each shard (I especially love the one for Bond of Insight).

Last up is one of the most powerful cards in the spoiler cycle yet. Finale of Promise allows you to play spells for free, which I hear Magic players are big fans of. In tandem with cards like Faithless Looting, Entomb, or even Thought Scour, you're going to be able to play several powerful spells for free, including game winning combos. Like Electrodominance before it, this card will likely put pressure on cards like the Pact cycle and the Suspend spells. Ancestral Vision and Living End will be cards to watch in Modern and Legacy leagues.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Living End
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancestral Vision

April 11th, 2019

Yesterday seems like a bit of a dud compared to what we got on this fine Thursday! More of the God cycle was spoiled, spurring on a lot of Commander chatter again. These will be putting pressure on a lot of cards. This spoiler season has really cranked up reactionary buying up to 11, maybe more so than any Standard set has before.

God-Eternal Bontu, God-Eternal Kefnet, and God-Eternal Rhonas return in their zombified forms to make a big splash on the Commander scene. These will definitely move the needle on a lot of different cards, and I imagine that there will be several spikes in the next few days that no one is directly predicting now. Many have pointed at Sensei's Divining Top as one to start moving due to Kefnet's top-of-deck ability.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sensei's Divining Top

We also received a new walker in Tamiyo, Collector of Tales and her signature spell Tamiyo's Epiphany. Even at rare, this Tamiyo stands out as strong, and could be a serious boon to decks that have trouble fighting Thought Erasure and Duress.

Finally, we have some awesome rares to round out the day. Enter the God-Eternals feels like a strong card that offers a ton of value for what you pay into it. Removal, life gain, mill, and a 4/4. Straight up value town! Spark Double is the clone we didn't know we wanted, and will be valuable in Super Friends decks. The stinker of the bunch is Silent Submarine. It's worse than Smuggler's Copter in nearly every single way, but could prove playable in Standard in the Mono Blue Tempo deck.

April 10th, 2019

It's Wednesday my dudes, and that means we've got another round of spoilers to go over!

We've finally got official images of Nissa, Who Shakes the World and Domri, Anarch of Bolas today, and green mages everywhere are very excited. Nissa doubles your green mana production, and will likely see play Standard as a finisher. Nissa's plus ability gets deadly very fast, and can definitely swing a game in your favor. This new Domri will likely be played in Standard Gruul decks, possibly replacing the slots that Domri, Chaos Bringer already may have occupied.

Outside of the confirmed walkers, we still got some solid rares that may be spurring movement very soon. Illharg, the Raze-Boar screams casual fun, and will likely become a fan favorite Commander. Some chatter indicates that its ability, similar to Sneak Attack or Through the Breach will put pressure on other large creatures that could be put into play in combat. One of the more interesting callouts was Medomai, the Ageless. Putting Medomai into play with the boar's effect and picking it up at end of turn will give you infinite turns to win the game. Foils of Medomai are already moving, but I expect this to be a flash in the pan once people realize that you can't play either of these as a general and have the other in your deck.

Awakening of Vitu-Ghazi shows off yet another card that could benefit from proliferate cards, and is fairly solid on its own. I expect this to largely be a draft bomb, but there's a small chance it could break into Standard as a win condition, given how powerful the effect is for the casting cost.

April 9th, 2019

This Tuesday was a huge day for spoilers! Five new planeswalkers join the fray, with the previously leaked Karn, the Great Creator confirmed.

Karn, the Great Creator previously moved the needle on Mycosynth Lattice, pushing the card up to new heights since its Battlebond printing. I expect this card to make a debut in Modern not too long after its release, possibly in Tron decks. Chandra, Fire Artisan is our other rare planeswalker from the day, doing her best impression of Chandra, Torch of Defiance. It very well could see play in Standard red decks as a way to stay relevant in the later parts of the game. As well, she could functionally trade with creatures on the battlefield, should your opponent decide to swing into her. This offers pseudo-protection and at least enables one-for-one trades, if not better.

Dovin, Jaya, and Saheeli make their return with their own uncommon cards. Dovin, Hand of Control will be a great way to tax your opponent and help fend off larger creatures in limited, but I'm not sure if this card has an easy home in constructed anywhere. The latter could be said about Jaya, Venerated Firemage and Saheeli, Sublime Artificer.  Nothing stands out as too incredibly powerful but will be fine limited cards.

April 8th, 2019

Monday spoilers started off slow, and then a sudden explosion of new cards came along! Here are some of the relevant drops.

First off, we have a new planeswalker in Kasmina, Enigmatic Mentor. Kasmina is a new planeswalker for the set, and has an awesome static ability similar to Frost Titan, but for all your creatures and planeswalkers. The tick down ability comes at a pretty decent rate of four mana, attached to a walker than somewhat protects itself. Roalesk, Apex Hybrid was previously leaked last weekend, albeit an incredibly blurry picture. Now we have access to a high-res image that reveals a strong Proliferate creature that will go well with the Simic suite of creatures we've seen already.

We also got some sweet cards representing the Boros Legion! The return of Feather, the Redeemed has got a lot of Angel players excited. It interacts well with pump spells and will probably spur on the development of a Boros aggro list in Standard. Solar Blaze looks to be a powerful, hopefully one-sided board wipe that plays well with the Boros creatures that have a higher toughness than power. Last up for the Boros is Parhelion II, another vehicle to add to the setlist. This will no doubt be a fan favorite that will be an easy pickup for any casual Commander deck featuring angels.

Last up we've got the official spoiling of Ral, Storm Conduit, along with some signature spells Ral's Outburst and Bolt Bend. Just like the murmurs in our Discord suggested, Ral's static ability can produce an infinite combo with another spell and the Expansion side of Expansion // Explosion. This could create a new Standard deck archetype shooting for the infinite combo, or give a shot in the arm to Jeskai decks that were set aside in favor of the Esper suite of cards. I expect some movement on Expansion // Explosion in response to this.

April 5th, 2019

Friday wrapped up with a fantastic round of new spoilers. Proliferate becomes more fleshed out, with some nice commons and uncommons in green. Look for these cards to boost your proliferate strategy in sealed or draft.

Perhaps the most important of these is Evolution Sage. With it on the table, you'll get to proliferate each time a land enters play under your control. This effect is incredibly powerful, and could work well in Standard with cards like Scapeshift, World Shaper, and Growth Spiral. In eternal formats, a strategy that wants to abuse the proliferate mechanics will benefit from having fetchlands like Misty Rainforest present. We also saw two sweet Simic cards with proliferate on them.

Merfolk Skydiver will be a solid draft uncommon and a good reason to go Simic. Neoform fits into this category as well, with potential to fuel a toolbox deck in Standard. These both could play nicely in a Prime Speaker Vannifar deck of some sort.

Other notable rares from the day include Tomik, Distinguished Advokist, Mizzium Tank, and Mobilized District. Mizzium Tank gives us a new vehicle that could very well see play in Mono Red as a way to make use of early drops that may get outclassed in the mid to late game. Mobilized District could be a strong piece in Super Friends if a control shell develops, with it being an extra way to win the game or protect your walkers. Tomik, Distinguished Advokist looks more like a Legacy card that Death and Taxes could sideboard in against various Dark Depths strategies. I expect foils of this to be hunted down very quickly.

April 4th, 2019

It's been the lightest day in this spoiler season so far, but there is one card I want to talk about that's got everyone on the QS Insider Discord buzzing!

Tolsimir, Friend to Wolves gives an update to our old friends Tolsimir Wolfblood and his loyal companion Voja. This will have obvious casual appeal, and will entice many Commander players to start picking up various green and white wolves for this upcoming general. Notable mentions include Garruk Relentless, Mayor of Avabruck, and Master of the Hunt. Some stated that the fact that this creature isn't red will potentially damage its viability as a Wolf-based general, barring it from using more relevant wolf cards such as Arlinn Kord and Ulrich of the Krallenhorde.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Master of the Hunt

April 3rd, 2019

Another day of spoilers brought us an update on the Nahiri and Sorin storyline last developed in Shadows Over Innistrad. Both of these planeswalkers are quite good, especially considering their rarity. Sorin, Vengeful Bloodlord's static ability to grant not only your creatures but also planeswalkers lifelink will probably make it a significant piece in Standard moving forward, possibly in an Abzan or Esper Midrange shell that would be interested in reanimating its creatures. Nahiri, Storm of Stone feels a little underwhelming, although probably pretty good for an uncommon. The equipment focused static ability also grants your creatures first strike, and being able to remove creatures in a pinch adds a lot to her utility. Single Combat ties their story together with a flavorful Cataclysm effect.

Next up, here are some fantastic Golgari uncommons in Leyline Prowler and Deathsprout. I can't help but shake the feeling that these could have been rares if their costs were both reduced by one-mana, but appear to be awesome value for the rate. Black looks like it is shaping up to be the most powerful color in limited play, judging from what we know so far.

An excited shriek from every Goblin fan around the globe was heard with the unveiling of this new Krenko, Boss of Tin Street! Whenever he attacks, you put a +1/+1 counter on Krenko, Boss of Tin Street, then create X 1/1 red goblin creature tokens, where X is equal to Krenko, Boss of Tin Street's power. Not exactly the standalone powerhouse we've seen before in Legion Warboss or Goblin Rabblemaster before it, but overall pretty good in a Goblin shell accompanied by the likes of Goblin Trashmaster and Goblin Chainwhirler.

 

April 2nd, 2019

Today's spoilers were far less intense compared to yesterday and last weekend, but we still got some exciting cards. The Dreadhorde get more fleshed out, this time with an aggressive red focus.

It was a big day for red cards. The new take on Neheb offers an interesting ability on hit, along with the other two cards here. Dreadhorde Butcher will likely be a solid Rakdos card to build around, pairing well with what we saw yesterday. The most exciting of these three for me is Dreadhorde Arcanist. Many have dubbed this new take on a flashback creature as Slapcaster Mage, as it allows you to cast a spell from your graveyard on hit less than or equal to its power. Recasting a Shock from the grave may be the difference between winning and losing, although I'm not sure if this card will make the cut in red decks just yet.

 

The return of Fblthp has come, and people are getting incredibly excited. I'm not exactly sure if there will be a deck that can abuse the ETB draw effect in a big way, but I expect foils of this little homunculus to be absurdly expensive due to casual appeal. Using Chord of Calling or Birthing Pod to play this card from the library will net you two cards for value, but maybe there's some hope for Prime Speaker Vannifar decks in Standard. UPDATE: Fblthp's interaction with Proteus Staff has prompted a buyout of the artifact. Activating the staff with Fblthp, the Lost as the only creature in your deck allows for powerful card draw and being able to stack your deck how you choose.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Proteus Staff

 

April 1st, 2019

Despite it being April Fool's Day, and having to take EVERYTHING with a grain of salt, we still managed to verify quite a few cards as real and what a day for spoilers it was! We got a huge slough of planeswalkers across the two rarities, and with some exciting effects to boot. It's a lot to unpack, with each walker having powerful and flavorful ability (click for translated text).

Standouts here are the new planeswalker The Wanderer, Davriel, Rogue Shadowmage, and Teyo, the Shieldmage making their debut. They will without a doubt be significant to the storyline of War of the Spark and likely will be players moving forward past this set. Starting them out as uncommons builds hype to possibly see them later on. The two rares we received in this packet were Teferi, Time Raveler and Vivien, Champion of the Wilds.

These seem a tad unexciting to me, as they will likely both be overshadowed by their five-mana counterparts in Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Vivien Reid in regards to Standard. However, I am quite interested to see what the future holds for this new three-drop Teferi. He doesn't impact the board in a big way immediately outside of bouncing a permanent, but his static ability that forces your opponent to play Hearthstone isn't entirely negligible. The plus ability isn't awful either. Imagine being able to cast Thoughtseize at the end of your opponent's draw step. Yikes!

   

Each walkers also brings a namesake card or two with them. Most of them seem like Standard draft fare, but I'd like to highlight these in particular. Vivien's Arkbow seems like a deadly threat that will allow green creature decks to claw their way back into the game after facing a board wipe. Angrath's Anger (unofficial translation) gives the sorcery-speed option of forcing an opponent to sacrifice an artifact, creature, or planeswalker. This likely will see some sort of play for its flexibility, and will probably give Grixis cheaper recourse against resolved walkers than Vraska's Contempt.

Last up for the day's highlights, we got the rest of our promised FNM promos in Augur of Bolas and Dovin's Veto, as well as the new Open House promo Liliana's Triumph. Augur will still put three cards on the bottom of your library if you're lucky like I am. Dovin's Veto strikes me as a very interesting card as a frequent UW Control player in several formats, and will likely impact all formats it's legal in. The same goes for Liliana's Triumph, which is just a strictly better version of Diabolic Edict that has an amazing upside if you also have a Liliana on the table.

I'll leave you all with this image that was seen floating around, which may or may not contain real cards in it. I'll be giving updates on this as more information comes out. Some of these were already confirmed, so I'll be adding my thoughts on these as clearer images become available.

March 31st, 2019

As promised, a large glut of spoilers were dropped on us today during the final day of the Mythic Invitational, with more to follow. Many player's suspicions about planeswalkers at lower rarity than Mythic were confirmed, with us seeing them as low as uncommon. We see that the walkers at less than rare will only have tick-down abilities. Tezzeret, Master of the Bridge shows up as the pre-spoiled Buy-A-Box promo mentioned in the leaked promotional materials invoice we saw a few days ago.

 

Nothing here stands out as far too busted, although we have to note the new planeswalker formatting that includes static abilities. We've seen these on several cards before, but attaching them to walkers that also have an activated ability will surely prove powerful. As funny as it is to say, I believe Tibalt, Rakish Instigator will be a significant player in the upcoming Standard format, given how powerful Mono Red is at the moment. Liliana and Tezzeret are the first mythic walkers spoiled, and I think they'll be decent cards as well. We also saw two of the set mechanics: the returning Proliferate first seen in Scars of Mirrodin, and the new Amass. Zombie relevant cards like Death Baron will likely be pickup targets moving forward.

Flux Channeler stands out to me as one of the more powerful cards, even at uncommon, and has me excited for what's to come. The obvious standout to me given the information we have so far is that some sort of Grixis deck is possible here. There likely will be movement on artifacts like Throne of Geth, Arcbound Ravager, and more.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atraxa, Praetors' Voice

These mechanics will play hand-in-hand and the effect of this spoiling has already put pressure on a few cards in the market, most notably Atraxa, Praetors' Voice. We're already seeing a ton of movement on TCG Player, and a lot of hype around the card. Discussion in our QS Discord is going wild with all the possibilities with the cards we've just seen, and there's no better time to join than now! Another notable card we're likely to see movement on given these mechanics is of course Doubling Season. This card is a fan favorite as is, but there I expect a sharp increase in price by the end of the spoiler season due to this EDH demand.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doubling Season

Moving on to other the other cards we received today, we got a slough of exciting and flavorful spells.

 

The invasion of Ravnica is in full effect here. No Escape and Ignite the Beacon are just a small preview of things to come regarding planeswalker interaction. Time Wipe will likely see some Standard play in decks like Azorius Aggro/Midrange. There are also major EDH implications for these cards as well. Bolas's Citadel was half spoiled a few days ago in name only, but seeing it in its final form reveals an insanely powerful artifact. Casting spells for free is never bad. Ravnica at War is also another interesting EDH card, especially considering the counterplay to Atraxa that it could provide. Interplanar Beacon will likely be a card to watch, especially foils. It will be about as necessary to run as Command Tower is in a walker themed EDH deck.

March 28th, 2019

The Mythic Invitational is in full swing, and we've got a new spoiler to report! Ajani's Pridemate will be the first card we've seen in a finished state, revealing the set symbol and an update on the rules text.

March 27th, 2019

While spoilers were set to officially start on March 29, an invoice being shared around Reddit and Twitter reveals a confirmed reprint of Augur of Bolas as an FNM promo.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Augur of Bolas

Nothing too exciting, but Pauper players will surely be happy to have them, almost certainly with new art! Assuming this is a screenshot of a real invoice, we also get some new card names: Bola's Citadel (sic); Tezzeret, Master (likely not the full name), which appears to be the Buy-A-Box foil; Paradise Druid; and Dovin's Veto. It's hard to make any calls on what these cards will do, but a lot can be inferred from the names alone. In response to this, we'll likely see a bit more information come out over the weekend regarding these promos and how they actually read.

Heading into the weekend, an announcement by Wizards also indicates that all spoilers released during PAX East will be tied to the story of War of the Spark, in a storyboard format. We'll be sharing these as they come out over the course of the weekend.

If you have any thoughts on these pre-spoilers or would like to keep updated, you can follow me on Twitter @chroberry where I'll be sharing updates from the weekend every day, and more spoilers going forward.

Peace!

Speculating While the Iron’s Hot

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Last week the S&P 500 cracked 2,900—it is now less than 2% away from its all-time highs. Something happens to me emotionally when I see the stock market rally so much, and I suspect other investors experience the same reaction. Portfolios grow rapidly, net worths hit new highs, and most notably, speculation runs rampant.

I can state with confidence—although anecdotally—that my speculative stock trading peaks while the market rallies. Over the past couple weeks I’ve been making some low-dollar options trades, and I’ve purchased stocks that deviate from my traditional, Warren Buffet-esque style of trading.

This culminated with my first investment in a pot-related stock, despite not yet being profitable: KushCo Holdings. (Remember, don’t follow my stock purchases without consulting with a professional, I do still own stock in this company, usual disclaimers etc.)

It turns out Magic card values are climbing as well. I’m seeing gains across Commander, Modern, and Legacy, and it’s creating a similar effect. My desire to speculate on cards I wouldn’t normally show interest in has ballooned over the past couple weeks.

With that in mind, this week I am going off-script to share a couple cards that have my attention—I’ll try to disclose my near-term intention and whether or not I have any position in those cards for full transparency.

Inspiration from QS Insider Discord

I don’t know as much about newer cards as I know about Old School stuff. Therefore, I look to others in the community when I wish to diversify my focus. The Quiet Speculation Insider Discord is one of the best resources for this research.

The most recent acquisition I made thanks to the Insider Discord was Mirrorwing Dragon. This is one of those newer cards that never really amounted to much in Standard, so I had never even heard of the card.

With the spoiling of Feather, the Redeemed, speculation on Mirrorwing Dragon has run rampant. The card spiked from bulk to $4 already and I think a higher price point will be fairly sticky—this is a mythic rare from Eldritch Moon we’re talking about…supply may not be as high as we think. I bought 20 from Star City Games and hope to flip them all at once if a buylist hits $3-$4.

Not long ago, someone in the Discord mentioned Thran Temporal Gateway. Being from Dominaria, I had not even considered this as a target due to its recency. Sure enough, the non-foil copies remain marginally above bulk and have not moved in price. Foils, on the other hand, have started to show life.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thran Temporal Gateway

This card shows up in over 1,000 EDH REC lists and I see that number increasing in the future. This card is modeled off Quicksilver Amulet, which cheats creatures into play for the same amount of generic mana. But the amulet shows up in over 7,000 decks and non-foils are worth over $4 despite being reprinted in Explorers of Ixalan.

Amulet may seem more exciting in Commander, but War of the Spark may change all that. The new set contains a ton of new planeswalkers, all of which are considered “Historic” and can be cheated into play with the Gateway. That’s enough for me—I purchased 8 foil Thran Temporal Gateways and am looking to add to this position.

Speaking of planeswalkers and War of the Spark, I noticed the proliferate mechanic is coming back. This mechanic interacts quite well with planeswalkers, enabling addition of loyalty counters at accelerated speeds. As more planeswalkers are printed, more will be played in Commander decks, which will in turn create more demand for proliferate.

The Insider Discord looked to Inexorable Tide as a solid proliferate target, and I have to agree.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inexorable Tide

This blue enchantment is already in 8,000+ lists on EDH REC and that number is sure to climb with War of the Spark’s release. It also shows up as a “top card” in arguably the most popular general of all time, Atraxa. Despite seeing a reprint in Modern Masters 2015, Inexorable Tide has seen exponential price growth lately and could easily hit all-time highs as proliferate hype continues.

I have no position in this card but will likely search the internet for cheap copies to buy if any are still out there!

Other Sources of Ideas

If I had a nickel for every time an MTG finance personality recommended a card, I probably wouldn’t need to speculate on cards anymore. Suggestions are numerous, and of course I am no exception.

The key is to filter through the noise and find the best ideas within. Everyone has a good idea now and again, and following a recommendation that pays off is a rewarding feeling. Over the last couple weeks, I heard a couple ideas that really caught my attention.

First, the Cartel Aristocrats podcast recently mentioned Contagion Clasp during their “Pick of the Week” segment.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Contagion Clasp

This card follows the proliferate theme I mentioned above. This mechanic is about to grow appreciably in popularity thanks to War of the Spark, and this reprinted uncommon is surprisingly cheap. It already shows up in over 6,000 lists on EDH REC and I see that number growing along with its price. I sorted by foils and see only 17 listings for the original set foil. There are about a dozen of the FNM foils. Either version seems well positioned to spike, and I like LP/NM copies of the set foil most.

I don’t own any copies currently but I’m on the hunt for some cheap foils. Non-foils may also be attractive, though being an uncommon means the price ceiling isn’t exceptionally high. Your best bet would be to buy a stack at $0.50 and out them to a $1 buylist as part of a larger buylist order. Selling these one at a time for $2 would be miserable.

Not coincidentally, Contagion Clasp is played most in the Atraxa Commander deck. In fact, many of the best proliferate cards are played in Atraxa. So maybe I should just browse the most popular Atraxa cards and consider any proliferate cards in it. EDH REC can be a very useful resource for this research.

The first card that catches my eye is Tezzeret's Gambit—original New Phyrexia foils are very sparse on TCGplayer and could be worth buying on the cheap. I own zero copies and will probably not buy any, but it’s a worthy consideration.

Contagion Engine also shows up. Even though it’s $15, it probably has room to run. It has never been reprinted and there are only 40 listings for the card on TCGplayer. I don’t own this one either, and I hope to find some alternate, lower costing targets.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Contagion Engine

There’s also Thrummingbird, but that card has had one too many reprints for my liking. I’d rather speculate in other proliferate targets with greater upside and fewer printings.

Final Thoughts

Besides Proliferate and War of the Spark speculation, I’ve also done a little Modern speculation lately. I particularly like Scrying Sheets. Why? It’s difficult to reprint; it has broken into Modern in the past and could return at any time (perhaps with Modern Horizons?); it’s a Coldsnap rare, meaning the number of copies out there is relatively small; and it shows up in over 2,000 EDH REC decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scrying Sheets

I have about a dozen copies of this card and one foil, with potential of grabbing a few more if I can find any at an attractive price.

Another card I like is Tamiyo, Field Researcher. This is another card mentioned in the QS Insider Discord; I had never even heard of the card before seeing it discussed. As it turns out, it’s one of the more popular planeswalkers in Atraxa and it shows up in 6,600 lists on EDH REC.

There are about 24 listings on TCGplayer for foil copies—that’s where I’d prefer to park my resources. I grabbed two foils from ABUGames with some store credit, and may pick up a couple more if I find them at a decent price. It’s a mythic rare from Eldritch Moon, so it has a pretty high ceiling.

Wrapping It Up

As the Magic market heats up, my tendency to speculate increases proportionally. Fortunately there's no shortage of ideas—the challenge is digging through the noise to find the best targets. This week I shared some of my favorites, with inspiration coming from multiple places. The Quiet Speculation Insider Discord is one of my favorite resources, and the Cartel Aristocrats Podcast can also add value.

I think War of the Spark is about to create a bunch of buyouts, driven by newfound Commander demand. I will be watching trends on EDH REC more closely than normal so I can stay most on top of the movers and shakers in the format. These will become great targets for speculation, and will lead to some decent profits. I’ll turn those profits into Old School cards for my collection, and will make the most of an exciting spring season of speculation!

…

Sigbits

  • I mentioned Mana Crypt in a recent article—since then, the buylist at Card Kingdom’s site has jumped. The buy price on the Book Promo version hit $200 for a day before coming back down to $170. I actually shipped Card Kingdom my EMA copy when their buylist hit $165—it since came down to $150 but it could easily go up again as the card remains hot.
  • Buylist on Stronghold Mox Diamond increased at Card Kingdom recently. It went from $165, down to $140, back to $165, and now up to $170. I’m watching this card closely because I have two copies and see the price climbing even higher throughout 2019. This is one of my favorite pick-ups with ABUGames store credit, by the way.
  • After being absent from Card Kingdom’s hotlist for weeks, I see the return of a Collectors’ Edition Dual Land. They have Bayou on their hotlist with a $155 buy price. These seem to ebb and flow, and I wonder if they’re once again on the upswing.

This Week’s Finance Factors: Modern Metagame, Spoiler Season, London Mulligans

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Modern Metagame 

I've shared my opinion before that the release of Modern Horizons will drive growth in the Modern market. That has me looking to buy in on staples now, before things really take off.

Last weekend Amulet Titan won the SCG Modern Open in Cleveland and put another copy in the Top 4, and it’s making its own impact on the market. Card prices of the deck's staples are starting to increase across the board, and seem to indicate further gains or even outright spikes as interest in the deck continues to grow and Modern expands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gemstone Mine

A staple of Amulet Titan, and also of Dredge, is Gemstone Mine. Being played in two top-tier decks has dramatically increased its price online, which has grown from 13 tickets to over 40 in the past two month. The prices of its two printings did spike around the turn of the year, from around $10 to the $15 where they now sit. From here there is still plenty of room to grow, relative to the awesome prices many top Modern staples command.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Coalition Relic

A new and growing piece of technology for the Amulet Titan deck is Coalition Relic. It broke out as tech a few months ago, and is seeing widespread adoption as a new staple.

Its online growth has been explosive, rising steadily from just a fraction of a ticket at 0.2 in February, to the nearly 4 tix where it now sits. In the same time period the paper price of the original printing has trended from around $6 to $8.50, and the reprint from $5 to $6.50, with most of that growth in the past week. Given Modern trends and Commander appeal, the card is in good position to keep growing for a long time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuva

Vesuva has had an interesting price history. For years it sat around $10 as an obscure card, before coming into its own in the Amulet Titan deck, and eventually trending to over $20 in 2016. With the banning of Summer Bloom, it managed to fall nearly all the way back to its previous price, bottoming at $12 at the end of 2017.

It has been moving back up since, surpassing its previous high sometime around the turn of this year. This week it saw a spike of almost 50%, to over $30. There aren’t many copies available cheaper than that online, so I expect the price will continue to grow as copies dry up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pact of Negation

While only a singleton in the deck, Pact of Negation is nevertheless a core staple as part of the Tolaria West toolbox. Even this card's stock has been rising with the good fortune of Amulet Titan.

The online price has nearly tripled since February, from 1.2 tix to 3.5. The prices of the Masters 25 and Modern Masters versions have grown from $11 to $15 in the past month, nearly reaching that of the Future Sight version.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

The single most important card in the Amulet Titan is actually Primeval Titan itself, and it too is starting to look like a good spec. Countless printings have helped keep it very affordable under $10, but in the past few months it has moved past that number. With so many copies out there it’s not going to see a real spike, but I expect strong and solid growth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mishra's Bauble

Another Modern deck going through a renaissance is Grixis Death's Shadow, which has proven it can stand up to Izzet Phoenix and the rest of the metagame. The most recent innovation for the deck is Mishra's Bauble, which has grown from a fringe card in the deck to seeing widespread adoption.

In the past few months Bauble's price online has grown from under 10 tickets to over 20, while the paper price has moved from a bottom of $6 in January to over $8. This was a $40 card before reprint. As a low-print-run Coldsnap card, that price defied the normal rules, but there’s still potential for the price to rise into the teens or $20 range.

Spoiler Season

This week also brought movement due to War of the Spark spoilers. The biggest factor was Feather, the Redeemed, which has caused a bunch of related spikes off of Commander hype.

I remember Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons and the Gods thing made huge stirs when they were printed, and this seems to be a similar case. Those cards had a ripple effect that caused spikes and increases for weeks as more and more cards were targeted. The lowest-hanging fruit was picked, but there is likely more out there.

This week some new legendary gods were revealed, with more in a cycle likely to come. Clearly designed with potential as Commanders in mind, these cards are already having an impact on the market, and any more spoiled will do the same.

For example, Ilharg, The Raze-Boar is basically Through the Breach on a creature, but it returns to hand instead of dying. That's generating interest in creatures with powerful effects to re-use, like Medomai the Ageless, which lets you take every turn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Medomai the Ageless

Another curiosity is Sundial of the Infinite, which lets you end the turn while the creature's return to hand trigger on the stack, allowing you to permanently keep whatever you put into play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sundial of the Infinite

London Mulligan Arrives to MTGO

In other news this week, the London Mulligan is now live on MTGO. A handful of cards moved on Wednesday when the rule went live. A look at these cards gives some insight into how the rules change could impact the metagame and the paper market.

Tron is considered to be a winner from the change, and we saw Karn Liberated move as a result. Reality Smasher and Chalice of the Void also showed increases, a nod to the Colorless Eldrazi deck with Serum Powder and Gemstone Caverns, both which improve from the rule. Leyline of the Void has also increased, another winner from the change.

I’m confident the new rule will become the gold standard, so I think these and related cards are due for paper increases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline of the Void

The London mulligan rule promotes aggressive mulligans, and an unexpected side-effect is that it benefits the 8-Rack deck. Cards like The Rack and Shrieking Affliction get better when opponents are starting on six or even five cards much more often. The deck has also received a new tool in Davriel, Rogue Shadowmage.

These all add up to explain The Rack’s massive growth online, from 2 tickets in February to 7 a week ago, and now up to 10.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Rack

Multiple printings means The Rack isn’t likely to spike in paper, but all of the other staples are fair game. One possibility is Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, which is at a low due to the recent Ultimate Masters printing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

-Adam

Flashback Frenzy: Dreadhorde Arcanist in Delver

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Another eventful week of War of the Spark spoilers is in the books, and with it, another batch of wrapped-up brewing projects. As always, I've got some insights to share on that front today; this time dealing not with planeswalkers, but utility creatures. Dreadhorde Arcanist, for all its Snapcaster/Confidant imitations, struck me as a potential Modern-playable the moment I saw it. I've spent the past week refining a Delver shell that integrates the Zombie Wizard.

Evaluating Dreadhorde

In this section, we'll compare Dreadhorde Arcanist to its obvious foils and see how it lines up.

Dreadhorde vs. Snapcaster Mage

Far and away the most common parallel I've encountered is between Dreadhorde and Snapcaster Mage. True, they both dig instants or sorceries out of the graveyard, but the two are miles apart in terms of play. Snap provides a small burst of value and gives players the card immediately, while Arcanist makes them wait, but promises further resources down the road. Additionally, Snapcaster charges for the flashbacked spell, while Arcanist casts it for free if it lives for a turn cycle. And finally, the blue Wizard has flash, ensuring it remains a contender in control shells, while Arcanist seems destined for aggro-control.

Dreadhorde vs. Dark Confidant

This is a comparison I haven't heard anywhere, but I think Arcanist is much closer in function to Dark Confidant than it is to Snapcaster. It provides a recurring source of card advantage as of the turn its controller untaps with it, and until opponents find a way to deal with it: in Confidant's case, by attacking its pilot's life total; in Arcanist's, by either killing it or sticking a blocker. This key difference is one of a few that differentiate Bob from the newcomer.

Dark Confidant requires two things of pilots. Deckbuilding-wise, their deck must be sparing with high-CMC spells, lest the creature outright kill its controller by revealing something like Tasigur, the Golden Fang. Arcanist has a similar condition: it demands players run a critical mass of one-mana instants and sorceries. While that condition is more specific and harder to meet than Bob's, it also allows players the wiggle room to run high-cost spells should they so desire.

A nuance to this point is that Confidant rewards players for running many lands, a habit increasingly looking suspect in Modern as even the dominant rock decks are starting to trend Turbo Xerox in their construction (cantrip-heavy, land-light shells which increase consistency over long games, e.g. Grixis Shadow). On this deck construction metric, I think Arcanist slightly wins out over Bob, as cantrip-stocked decks have proven themselves better than land-heavy ones in this metagame (and, perhaps, in Magic).

Moving beyond deck construction, we can examine Confidant's second requirement: life. The Human taxes players life points for cards, and stops working when players run low on that resource. Conversely, Arcanist asks players to have one-mana instants or sorceries in the graveyard, something significantly tougher to achieve for most players, but perhaps trivial in the right shell; otherwise, it too stops working. On the plus side, though, choosing from a makeshift toolbox of cheap spells probably beats drawing a random card, especially when some of those spells are cantrips with tacked-on library manipulation. Arcanist's effect has a higher ceiling.

Life is usually in short supply down the road but in abundance early, and the inverse is true of spells in the graveyard. So I'd assess that overall, Confidant is better early-game, while Arcanist has the upper hand later. There are exceptions, of course; Arcanist is stronger against Burn; Confidant is more reliable against Rest in Peace; etc. Similarly, I think a deck can be built to consistently ensure Arcanist resembles Dark Confidant as of turn two.

Arcanist has one additional condition, though, that Confidant lacks: it needs to attack to activate its effect. That means that staring down the likes of Tarmogoyf, the 1/3 can't even help pilots find answers to such a game state, while Confidant is happy to draw players out of board stalls. This condition is perhaps tougher to account for. It helps that Arcanist is red, the color of direct damage spells. These cards remove blockers, but also maintain relevance against players lacking creatures, which is the kind of versatility we'll need from an effect Arcanist incentivizes us to load up on.

The final point of comparison is stats, which I evaluate as about even. 2 power is twice as much as 1 when it comes to bringing the beats, but Arcanist's surgical selection somewhat makes up for its lower damage output; it can flashback Lightning Bolt, after all. As for toughness, 3 is much greater than 1, especially since every point matters in Modern these days. Confidant dies to literally everything, including Gut Shot; Arcanist survives Stage 1 creature removal like Collective Brutality, Magma Spray, and Pyroclasm, which is ideal for sniping early-game threats that would otherwise put players on the back foot. Besides Bolt, it mostly just dies to the heavy-duty stuff reserved for Tarmogoyf, Crackling Drake, and other Stage 2 creatures: Fatal Push, Lightning Axe, Path to Exile, etc.

Play Parameters

Given how the metagame has congealed around Arclight Phoenix, I decided to construct the Dreadhorde Arcanist deck in a way informed by that shape. After all, most of my testing would be done using free online clients, presumably against meta-conscious opponents. The most recent data I had access to identified Lightning Bolt as the most-played mainboard card and Surgical Extraction as the likeliest sideboard include, so my build set about mitigating the impact both those cards would have on my gameplan.

Beating Surgical

As I've written, UR decks not featuring Arclight Phoenix are already quite good against Surgical Extraction. To keep from being a much worse version of the established best deck, though, I retained its other threat, Thing in the Ice. Thing gives us ample game against go-wide and combo-oriented creature decks alike, allowing us to point most of our burn at opponents.

Beating Bolt

That leaves Lightning Bolt, a card that conveniently trades up on mana against Dreadhorde Arcanist. Also convenient, except for us this time, is the Zombie's high toughness; Mutagenic Growth saves it from all kinds of stats-matter removal spells, including Bolt and even Flame Slash. Protecting Confidant while tapped out is a powerful, if unreliable, gameplan I tried four years ago in "Some Bobs With Your Bugs: Confidant in Delver." Mutagenic asks far less of us than Disrupting Shoal did, although it only works against stat-based removal.

Alongside Arcanist, Mutagenic has additional utility. It can pump the 1/3 from the hand and then be flashed back, giving us a 5-power trample for the turn. And a buffed Arcanist can flash back pricier spells than just one-drops.

While Mutagenic Growth is an elegant answer to Lightning Bolt, and plays nice with Arcanist otherwise, I wanted it to do more in this shell. Maximizing the instant meant employing a Stage 1 combat creature that also fades Bolt with some help from the pump; the 2 damage from Growth would need to add up somehow. I settled on Delver of Secrets, although Monastery Swiftspear is also probably worth a look. Since Delver is a Wizard, this choice opened the door for Wizard's Lightning, a powerful option that can even be re-used by Arcanist when it's 3/5 or larger.

Thing in the Ice also interacts nicely with Growth. The instant saves Thing from spells run in Modern specifically to kill it, such as Flame Slash, Dismember, and Lightning Axe. But the instant's real appeal is its propensity for flipping thing early, or while tapped out.

Here's the list I landed on:

UR Delver, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Thing in the Ice
4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
2 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Wizard's Lightning
4 Thought Scour
4 Opt
4 Mutagenic Growth
2 Vapor Snag
2 Spell Pierce

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Steam Vents
4 Spirebluff Canal
3 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Damping Sphere
2 Crackling Drake
1 Hazoret the Fervent
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Spell Pierce
2 Spite of Mogis
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Shattering Spree

Card Choices

Snapcaster Mage: While I think Arcanist is better in this deck overall, we can only run 4, and I still like the utility Snapcaster provides. Between the flash, the immediate flashback, and the body, no other card in Modern does all this creature does. Bouncing Snap with Thing also occasionally comes up and is nice.

Thought Scour: One of Modern's best cantrips, Scour's issue is that running it often means dipping deep enough into a graveyard strategy that enemy hosers become serious threats. Just as I've found Grim Lavamancer to assuage this conundrum, Dreadhorde Arcanist fills a similar role. Scour is great at stocking the 'yard for the Zombie.

Opt: My additional cantrip of choice after Serum Visions and Thought Scour. I tried Faithless Looting in small numbers, but was more impressed with the raw card advantage offered by a self-replacing cantrip alongside Arcanist.

Vapor Snag: A way to quickly clear lager threats so Arcanist can crash through. Combined with the creature, Snag makes for a potent removal engine. If opponents only have one big beater, we can bounce it, swing, flash back a cantrip, and next turn swing and bounce all over again; when multiple targets are in play, we can bounce two in a single combat step, and before blockers to boot. I didn't want many of these because of its redundancy with Thing, but the instant tested very well.

Spell Pierce: Pierce has no synergy with Arcanist, but I hold that it's terrific right now, and in the tempo-sensitive Modern generally. It was also important to me to have some dedicated stack interaction available. Our many cantrips help find Pierce before something critical like Through the Breach or Ad Nauseam can resolve.

Other Possibilities and Closing Thoughts

UR Delver featuring Mutagenic Growth was actually the third of a few decks I tried with Dreadhorde Arcanist. I also tested a more dedicated Wizards shell, and a midrange build in Grixis colors. Neither of those strategies were fast enough to race Tron, though; Lightning, Pierce, Growth, and Delver all help with this matchup, as do the Damping Spheres. But it's fully possible my deckbuilding biases are at work here, as they often are in my articles, and Arcanist is better suited in a deck without Delver. As always, I'll happily receive advice and opinions in the comments; until then, happy spoiler season!

Tales from the Buylist #9 – Lightning Fast Movement

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War of the Spark spoilers continue, and that's got a lot of folks participating in some reactionary buying and selling. While it's a bit early to call which of these cards are truly duds, that won't stop people who are quick on the draw with snapping up singles ready to make the quick flip. Reactionary buying rules the day, and we're seeing a ton of cards be subject to it.

The Command Zone Effect

First thing's first, I have to talk about Feather, the Redeemed. This card got a high-profile spoiling from The Command Zone, notable for their potent ability to spur movement on Commander-relevant cards due to their Game Knights video series. This is somewhat recent, as we saw the first major proof of this occur when popular cosplayer Ashlen Rose showcased her Kozilek, the Great Distortion deck back in March.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kozilek, the Great Distortion

Lately, I see a lot of chatter around their content and upward price movement every day in our Insider Discord. This has even led some to label it "The Command Zone Effect." I've never been much of a Commander player myself, as I don't typically enjoy multiplayer formats, but it gets harder and harder to ignore this particular piece of content the further we go. I'll be honest in saying I make the effort to watch it every week, as soon as possible, just in case.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunforger

One of the big callouts within the video this week was Sunforger, a piece of equipment that plays quite well with Feather's ability. You'll be able to tutor up spells for the low cost of RW to your heart's content. Rebuying any of your spells found here is insane value, and that's good enough reason for the quick buyout.  In my opinion, this buyout will set a new price for the card long-term, and will likely lead to Sunforger stabilizing at around $8 once a bit of the hype dies down. Supply below the $10 price point has all but dried up, which leaves little room for buying in. If you bought in low or you're holding on to these, I suggest flipping them as soon as possible.

Legacy Liabilities

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought Lash

Thought Lash is another card that I'll be watching very closely for the next few weeks, especially after War of the Spark's release has passed. Its interaction with the new Jace's static ability or Laboratory Maniac is undoubtedly strong but may be an example of wishful thinking from Legacy combo players. Even with another combo piece to accompany it, I think the upward price movement on Thought Lash will likely be very short-term, and I suggest flipping them quickly. Spot removal breaks up this combo so easily, and I honestly don't have much faith in this card's upward trajectory for the years to come.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Telim'Tor's Edict

Some would argue that it may be unwise to get rid of a Reserved List card so quickly, given the movement we've seen for that class of card in the last few years. I would quickly point them to Telim'Tor's Edict to prove my point. A bit of meme-worthy gameplay was posted on Channel Fireball by Matt Nass, Sam Pardee, and Andrew Baeckstrom featuring Telim'Tor's Edict as part of a Jenga-esque combo to put a Marit Lage token into play this time last year. Shortly after it was posted, copies were very quickly snapped up by those looking to make a quick buck (myself included), and the hype lasted for a very short period. There was some gain there, the time spent on the venture made it hardly worth it.

I feel like going hard on Thought Lash may end up much the same way, as the price will quickly plummet when it puts up no Legacy results.

Modern Still Feels Safe

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scapeshift

On the flipside, I'm very happy to participate in some reactionary buying on cards like Scapeshift. A Modern staple through-and-through, Scapeshift has been present in the Modern meta at pretty much every point. The spoiling of Evolution Sage has prompted some small movement, on the off-chance that proliferating several times a turn could be a viable strategy in Standard. Should you go deep on it? Possibly! Scapeshift is at a relative low for where it once was since its Core 2019 printing, and in my opinion can only go up from here. Picking up copies for under $10 will be the safest bet for a long-term hold. Even with Core 19's rotation coming up later this year, I believe this is still a relatively safe pick.

To add to this, Primeval Titan is an easy complement to Scapeshift that I want to highlight here for much the same reason. While it's banned in Commander, Prime Time is seeing a bit of success in Modern in Amulet of Vigor decks that are able to compete at the top level. I pointed to this card a few weeks ago, and I'm still confident that a few good tournament results with either Titanshift or Amulet Titan could push this card up since the price drop of its Iconic Masters release. Amulet Titan recently took down an SCG Open, and looks like the first step towards something bigger.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flusterstorm

With Modern Horizons' release date drawing closer, it's hard to say whether any of these archetypes will be powerful enough in the new format. Should we get more potent answers in the form of efficient counter-magic like Counterspell or Force of Will, evergreen strategies will either have to adapt to this change, or fall out of favor entirely. Some have reasoned that we'll get more fair cards like Flusterstorm entering the format. I can't see the future here, but if Cabal Therapist was any indication, we can at least expect classic spells like these returning entering Modern in some form.

Bring it on Home

The potential for a lot of new cards to spike is still very high as we move to the end of spoiler season on Friday of this week. We'll likely see some more reactionary Commander buyouts between now and Monday, so I recommend keeping a close eye on Twitter, YouTube, and especially our QS Insider Discord. Plenty of our members will be happy to point out their favorite picks, and offer some insights on cards you may not have considered. The value of you can expect to gain is well worth the cost of admission.

Picks

  • Scapeshift
  • Primeval Titan

Holds

  • Flusterstorm

Folds

  • Sunforger
  • Thought Lash

 

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

Evaluating Opportunities, Pt. 2 – Value Factors and Opportunity Cost

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Welcome to part two of my series on evaluating opportunities. You can find part one here.

Previously I covered the initial steps one should take before looking for opportunities, like establishing a basic budget and goals. I then reviewed a method of looking at the potential risks and strategies to mitigate them.

Today I'll look at what factors might affect a given spec's potential, and cover the idea of opportunity cost. Finally, I'll illustrate with an example and touch on the importance of diversification.

Determinants of Value

Whenever you're speculating, it's critical to understand what factors can affect the value of a card. I keep a list of likely determinants for a card's value that helps me evaluate the overall potential of a spec. As of now, I ask myself the following questions for each card.

  1. Is the card on the Reserved List?
  2. How much play does it see?
  3. How many printings does it have?
  4. What rarity are its printings?
  5. When was the last printing?
  6. Is its demand heavily metagame-dependent?
  7. Is its effect unique?
  8. Is it the best version of what it does?
  9. What is the likelihood a better option will be printed?
  10. Is the card's color relevant for the format it's played in? For instance, blue cards in Legacy and green cards in Commander.
  11. Does it have any additional "collectability" factors (i.e. drawn by a beloved artist, a relevant creature type, etc.)?

These are questions I like to ask myself when looking at any card, whether it's a new card or an older potential speculation opportunity. I've expanded the list from previous articles (which typically focused on evaluating a card for a specific format) to get a more complete picture of a card's prospects in general.

In this way I view cards as many sports commentators view upcoming draft picks, though they often have easier-to-define criteria (40-yard dash, vertical jump, standing long jump, etc.). We as speculators need a consistent set of criteria to evaluate any given card.

These are the questions I use when considering cards to invest in, although I imagine someone with more time on their hands could come up with a more elaborate ranking system.

Opportunity Cost

So many of us use this term incorrectly, and honestly I'm guilty of it too. It involves more than just a look at the Return on Investment (ROI) of a particular investment. To calculate the true opportunity cost you must compare that to the ROI of an alternative investment of equal risk.

I'll illustrate this with a concrete, MTG finance example. Our potential investment opportunities will consist of two cards from Ultimate Masters (UMA), Engineered Explosives and Noble Hierarch.

You can currently buy UMA Engineered Explosives for $19-$20 each, while UMA Noble Hierarch costs around $40. So if you have $120 to invest, you could purchase 3x Noble Hierarch or 6x Engineered Explosives.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives
There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

Noble has the original Conflux printing, two Masters set printings, a GP Promo printing, and a Judge Promo printing. Explosives has its original 5th Dawn printing, as well as two Masters sets and a Masterpiece. Comparing the all-time highs, we see Explosives peaked at $104.5 in August 2018, while Hierarch peaked at $84.30 in March of the same year.

Looking at MTG Goldfish's most-played cards in Modern, we see Hierarch at the #20 spot. Explosives was at #49 just a few days ago, but has since fallen out of the top 50.

Both cards seem like good options. They both see heavy play in Modern, have been reprinted recently, and have reprints restricted to limited-run products. Both are priced below their historic highs, which occurred last year. Here you can see me putting to use those determinants of value listed above.

However, there is one big difference—Explosives is half the price of Hierarch. For the same expense, you can acquire more copies of Explosives. Should both cards increase by $5-10 within the next year, one would make twice as many gains on the Explosives.

This line of thinking is incredibly powerful when it comes to investment decision-making. After all, as I discussed in my previous article, given we operate with limited financial resources, optimizing their usage is critical to maximizing our profits.

Diversification

There is one more thing to be aware of before applying the logic of opportunity cost to concrete investment decisions. One could easily argue that the smartest play is to determine a set of factors to look at, and then sink all your money into whatever card ranks highest in those criteria. At the core this seems to make a lot of sense, but it goes against a fundamental principle of investment: diversification.

Most financial advisers will tell you to diversify your investments, and you'll find the same advice here on Quiet Speculation. Diversification spreads out risk—and there is a lot of risk inherent in Magic finance. After all, the game is made by a single company who has complete control over what they print—they can print as much or as little as they want, and thus can control supply to match whatever they think the demand is.

In a way, it's similar to investing in a specific country's currency. In that case there are typically laws in place to protect investors from countries printing massive amounts of money and/or devaluing their currency, though it obviously does happen.

Conclusion

In the end we have to decide our own level of acceptable risk, and how much potential profit we are willing to sacrifice to reduce it.

While I understand this may be tedious to do for every single Magic card you might consider speculating on, it's important to remember that you are investing your hard-earned money on these pieces of cardboard. You are hoping to make additional money by doing so, and you are taking on risk that you may lose money.

I'll admit that I don't follow all these steps for every single card I have ever speculated on. That's part of the reason I have a box of "long-term" specs that could likely be renamed "box of shame"—and I know I'm not alone.

However, I do follow these steps when considering any larger speculative purchases. I have sunk a fair amount of money into UMA singles since they released last December, and I definitely passed up on some of the reprints to focus instead on the ones that ranked higher in my evaluations.

The Time War: Teferi, Time Raveler in UW

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A new set is on the horizon, so it's spoiler time again! War of the Spark is the first set designed as a planeswalker set, which means there are an unprecedented number about to drop. More interestingly, most of them have static abilities rather than the traditional plus, minus, and ultimate combo we've become accustomed to. A number of them look to be curious and impactful, but they have a problem that may be disqualifying. Today I'll be examining a promising example in Teferi, Time Raveler, using him to demonstrate the issue with these static walkers.

Cleveland Phoenix Check-In

Before moving on, there was another major Modern event last weekend, this time the Cleveland SCG Open. I have been hopeful that the apparent warp in the metagame caused by Izzet Phoenix would diminsh. The data from Cleveland indicates this is not the case. The Day 2 metagame is what we've come to expect: Phoenix is the most popular deck by far, though underneath those numbers the metagame looks diverse and healthy.

The Top 8 is more interesting because Phoenix and Amulet Titan are tied for most copies. Of note, the winning list readopted the Hive Mind combo kill. Said combo had disappeared after Summer Bloom's banning, and I'm curious whether this was inertia on Sam Lawrence's part or a deliberate metagame choice. In any case, it appears that the format continues to struggle to control the firebird.

New Time Pressure

Jordan covered Karn, the Great Creator last week, smelling real potential. The other discussion-worthy new planeswalker is Teferi, Time Raveler. A three-mana walker with 4 loyalty is already worth looking into, but Teferi has an ace up his considerable sleeves: he shuts out opposing instants, boasting huge implications for control mirrors.

Based on past experience, it seems like new Teferi should be very good, because the last card with that static ability was very good. Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir proved a critical card for Time Spiral-era Mythical Teachings control, and in the mirror, whoever untapped with him typically won. Teachings decks played almost entirely at instant speed, and the mirror was dictated by correct sequencing and card advantage. Teferi allowed his controller to dictate the pace of the game and invalidate any counterspells or other protection while establishing a clock.

Time Raveler costs just half what Mage does, which is everything in Modern. It also allows for greater flexibility with a player's own sorceries. This appears to be a very potent combination.

Obvious Home

Naturally, it makes sense to try Raveler in a control shell. As of when I did my testing, the most recent good finish came from GP Calgary in the form of UW Control. The Esper list from Cleveland is very interesting, but given how testing played out, I doubt I would have come to a different conclusion.

UW Control, Austin Anderson (7th Place, GP Calgary)

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
1 Spell Snare
1 Condemn
1 Logic Knot
1 Negate
1 Mana Leak
1 Absorb
1 Hieroglyphic Illumination
1 Settle the Wreckage
3 Cryptic Command

Sorceries

2 Serum Visions
4 Terminus

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere
1 Search for Azcanta

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Lands

6 Islands
2 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
4 Field of Ruin
3 Celestial Colonnade
3 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain

Sideboard

2 Rest in Peace
2 Celestial Purge
2 Dispel
2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Stony Silence
1 Negate
1 Settle the Wreckage
1 Lyra Dawnbringer

I've previously noted that this deck is well-positioned against Izzet Phoenix, though it's a little light in the sideboard against other control decks. Still, with eleven counterspells and plenty of card advantage, it had everything necessary as a test vehicle.

Actual Utility

I only tested Raveler in the control mirror, because that's where I deemed him most likely to be relevant. Limiting opponents to sorcery speed is a fine ability, but that's usually all non-combo decks do anyway. Aggro may play a few instants, almost always creature removal; outside of Spirits, though, the creatures don't have flash. Lots of decks have Lightning Bolt, but that's not important against control. A typical Tron deck has no instants, so Raveler's static ability isn't relevant there, either. My example deck only has six sorceries, so it would be most impacted by Teferi.

His other abilities are also pretty mediocre. The main reason to play sorceries at instant speed against not-control is to Supreme Verdict during combat or end of turn, and when Terminus can already be miracled as an instant, it's not a very useful upgrade. There is something to be said for playing Serum Visions and sorcery speed card advantage as instants for the mana advantage and flexibility, but since they don't see much play in the first place I think it's marginal at best.

The downtick isn't bad, as bouncing a creature and drawing a card is a decent tempo play. It may be actively good if the creature is Gurmag Angler or you have your own threats out. However, most creature decks are either going too wide or gain intrinsic value from being played these days, so Repulse isn't a very good ability. That Raveler is great in control mirrors is the impression most players have when they see him, and all things considered it makes the most sense to test him in that capacity.

The Catch

The question lingers of just how valuable Raveler actually is. Again, the original Teferi was often crippling in the control mirror, and given that my example deck runs 11 total counterspells, it seems like Raveler should be great. However, I was skeptical. Yes, he shuts off opposing counterspells and locks opponents off your turn, but Teferi cannot win the game alone. None of his abilities actually kill the opponent, so they can just ignore him entirely if they wish. At least Teferi, Hero of Dominaria demands an answer, because he can tuck himself into the library and opponents will eventually deck themselves.

There's also the question of relevance. It makes sense that countering critical spells is good for control, but I'm not certain that it actually translates into wins. Modern UW Control wins mostly by forcing a concession once it has cleared the board and has overwhelming card advantage. What may be the Ur-example of a control mirror came from Time Spiral block and wasn't decided by counterspells, but through exceptional resource management: for the most part, both players were resolving their important spells at sorcery speed. This wasn't because of Teferi but because each deck had exactly 4 Cancel and 2 Draining Whelk so there was limited need to play around counters. Their spells were better as sorceries anyway and since the match was about maximizing card impact, Teferi's disruption wasn't very relevant.

It's been a while since I sleeved up a control deck. I remember counters were very relevant in the mirror back then, but Modern is a very different format now.  Before I tested Raveler personally, I asked some dedicated local control players what they thought. Every one's knee-jerk reaction was that it was a house and would be a great sideboard card. However, as they started to explain why, they all walked their opinion back. The consensus answer ended up being, tautologically, that counterspells only matter when they matter because what's important is sticking some form of persistent card advantage and riding it to victory. Teferi ensures that you will resolve your own subsequent walkers, but it may or may not impact the opponent's ability to do so first. Thus, they weren't sure how good Teferi would actually be in practice.

An Overall Problem

To test Teferi, I took the example list and proxied two decks. One was the list in it's control mirror configuration (sweepers out, angels and counters in) and the other played Time Raveler instead of the extra Negate and a Dispel. The default won 8 of 13 games. In fairness to Teferi, I was testing against a more experienced control player. However, if the roles were reversed I don't think it would suddenly have made Teferi a game changer.

The problem was that Teferi didn't do anything. He's like Null Rod's flavor text but worse. Teferi came down and shut off opposing counters. And then I could downtick him to bounce Search for Azcanta and draw a card at best, but typically I could only tick him up. And I could tick Teferi up indefinitely at no penalty to my opponent or meaning for me because I only had 2 Serum Visions and Time Raveler has no ultimate. Meanwhile, my opponent could simply ignore Teferi and start slamming threats until I cracked. And despite having counters I often did crack because I'd spent a card on Teferi. He also frequently made me spin my wheels with Cryptic Command, which unlike the other counters still had text. The nail in the coffin was that Time Raveler doesn't interact with planeswalkers nor can he keep up with their card advantage. He was simply outclassed.

Teferi's static ability and cost make him seem like a very potent card. However, the reality is that he only really impacts counterspells and which are of such variable importance that I'm not sure it's worthwhile. Combine that with really mediocre abilities and I don't think Teferi justifies sideboard space in control decks. I didn't test him as combo protection, but I'm skeptical that he'd ever beat Boseiju, Who Shelters All as counterspell killer.

A Designed Flaw

Ultimately, this is the problem with all the new static planeswalkers. The static abilities are very relevant, but if the rest of the planeswalker isn't, what's left is a worse enchantment. Consider Teyo, the Shieldmage. At three mana, he provides the same effect as Leyline of Sanctity. Teyo always costs three mana, while Leyline is zero or four dependent on having it in your opening hand. The advantage there is unclear, but being an enchantment is a big advantage for Leyline, because it can only be removed with Assassin's Trophy or actual enchantment removal. Teyo can be Bolted or attacked. For that reason, Leyline is often game over against Burn, while I would guess that Teyo is mildly annoying at best.

The only other thing Teyo can do is downtick to make 0/3 walls. That is potentially relevant against Burn since it blocks Goblin Guide, but that's all Teyo can do. There's no way to add loyalty because he has no uptick ability at all. This is partially a balance consideration and mostly to make proliferate relevant.

As another example, consider Davriel, Rogue Shadowmage. He's been speculated on since he makes 8-Rack into 12-Rack and adds to the hand pressure without hitting you, unlike Liliana of the Veil. However, he can only be used twice before going away, unlike the infinitely-usable Liliana.

He's also worse than The Rack or Shrieking Affliction. He's not only more vulnerable as previously discussed, but he also does less damage which translates into more time for opponents to find a way out and/or race 8-Rack. Davriel is a fine card, but not an exceptional one and that's really the story of the War 'Walkers. They're fine cards in context, but not exceptional.

Limited Utility

This is no accident. Wizards was worried that too many normal planeswalkers would destabilize Standard, and they had to heavily moderate them. The static walkers were designed to have potent effects, but be fragile. There's very little utility to these cards unless the static effect is relevant, and even if it is, they're all very fragile.

This means, for the most part, the new planeswalkers are more fragile and swingy than any previous iterations. On the one hand, they have potentially game-swinging static abilities. On the other, if that isn't the case, they're irrelevant to the point of unplayability. To make matters worse, they're far easier to remove than equivalent enchantments or artifacts.

War is Changing

There are still plenty of walkers to be revealed, which could change my mind. However, they'll need to be powerhouses to overcome the inherent vulnerability of being attackable enchantments. Only time will tell whether that is the case.

Three Current MTG Finance Trends that Confuse Me

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Magic is a vast landscape, consisting of a multitude of stories, game pieces, and ways to interact with the hobby. It is virtually impossible for any one person or company to keep their finger on the pulse of every single trend in the game. When it comes specifically to following singles prices, staying on top of the market is a fool’s errand. As soon as you learn the value of cards, they inevitably change.

Being that this is a finance-based site, my focus this week will be on three different trends I’ve observed that strike me as a bit odd. They may have catalysts that provide a rational explanation, but I’ll attempt to present an argument as to why I think these observations don’t make sense.

I wonder if these oddities are occurring because people are hyper-focused on their own strategies. Maybe people aren’t looking deeply enough into the past, or broadly enough at current prices and offerings. After all, if we don’t learn from the past, we are doomed to repeat it, right?

Trend 1: The Mana Crypt Conundrum

Last week I flagged the recent price appreciation of Mana Crypt. The Eternal Masters version has gone from $140 to $190 since 2019 (TCG market pricing).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Crypt

The readily available supply of the card has also dwindled. As of Sunday morning, there were 23 sellers with English copies of this card in stock on TCGplayer. One moderately played copy is listed at $179—the next cheapest is near mint and $194.99. Once the cheapest ten copies sell, this will be a $225 card.

This card is a major Commander staple that can slot into any deck. It appears in over 28,000 lists on EDH REC. This card is the real deal, so it’s no wonder its price has been rallying aggressively of late. Eternal Masters has gotten old enough that its impact on the market supply is diminishing. No surprises here.

Now onto the part that confuses me. At this point, the relative pricing of the different versions of Mana Crypt are perplexing. For example, if you’re fine with playing the original Book Promo version of Mana Crypt, you can obtain an English copy for $165.30 (moderately played). Ignoring the seller with 0 feedback on TCGplayer, lightly played copies start in the $180’s.

I would have expected the original promotional printing to be more valuable, but instead the reverse is true. Card Kingdom agrees with me—they have near mint EMA copies listed for $230 and the Book Promo at $250. (Random aside: I pointed out that this card was actionable in the QS Insider Discord back on 4/1, when Card Kingdom had copies listed at $180…check out the image below. Just another data point showing the value of the Discord!)

Okay, so Card Kingdom charges more for the Book Promo than the Eternal Masters version. I’d expect their buylist to reflect this trend. Yet, as of this morning, it does not. They pay $165 on EMA copies and $150 on Book Promo copies. So they pay more for the version they sell for less. That makes no sense too!

The last thing that confuses me about Mana Crypt involves the Masterpiece version. Since its printing, the Masterpiece version of Mana Crypt has been much more expensive than any other version. But the premium has slowly been evaporating.

Since January 1, the market price on this version of Mana Crypt has gone from $300 to $323. That’s a much smaller increase than the EMA version! At the end of 2018, the Masterpiece version cost 2.1x the Eternal Masters version. Today that premium is at 1.7x and closing. Card Kingdom offers $200 on the Masterpiece version but $165 on EMA copies—that’s hardly a premium at all!

This trend also makes no sense and something has to change. My prediction: the Masterpiece version ticks up a notch. Until then, the trend is just bizarre.

Weird Practices at ABUGames

I’ve written at length about how strange I find ABUGames’s current business strategy. Their aggressive move towards any and all Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards may pay out in the long term, but for now it is perplexing. They offer such a huge premium in store credit on these cards, while not nearly reflecting that same premium on newer cards.

But that’s not the strangest thing. The thing that really confuses me about ABUGames is the fact that they sell many of these Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards on eBay for far less than on their website. I understand this is a way for them to maintain sufficient cash flow, but the practice leads to trends that don’t add up.

Consider this: last Friday I was the only bidder on an auction of theirs for a played Beta Mana Flare.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Flare

I bid on the card after watching the same card listed at auction the week prior fail to receive any bids. At the time the card was listed a few bucks higher—clearly after failing to sell, ABUGames relisted the card on eBay with a lower price point. This is a practice they’ve been implementing quite a bit lately. If I hadn’t bid on this card, I suspect it would have dropped a couple more bucks even still.

(Click to expand.)

Why did I decide to bid anyway? Because of the craziness that is ABUGames’s pricing strategy. With shipping I paid $211.92 for this Beta Mana Flare. Humor me for a second and check out what ABUGames offers in store credit for this card. The number is $415—nearly double what they sold it for!

You can probably predict what I’m going to do next. Once the card arrives, I’m going to submit a buylist order and ship it right back to ABUGames for $415 in store credit (unless they change their credit price in the interim). With this credit I can shop around for some fairly priced, played Modern staples. Or I could pick up a couple Portuguese Book Promo Mana Crypts because, at this point, they’re actually priced fairly.

If you look at their eBay listings, I suspect you will be able to find other opportunities to get ABUGames credit at half price simply by buying cards from ABUGames themselves.

Leveler Déjà Vu

This morning I noticed Leveler was the top mover overnight according to MTG Stocks. The card went from $0.75 to $9 in a few short days. This buyout was triggered by the spoiling of Jace, Wielder of Mysteries. The former wipes out your library and the latter lets you win the game if you try to draw from an empty library. A match made in heaven.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leveler

This version of Jace also catalyzed the buyout of Thought Lash. It seems a bunch of cards are spiking because of their potential interaction with Jace. This makes perfect sense, and we often see folks jump on the bandwagon when a new combo emerges.

Here’s what confuses me. Take a look at that Leveler price chart above. Notice how the card has been essentially bulk for years, but back in 2013 was higher and in the process of a gradual decline?

The data doesn’t quite go back far enough, but if you could trace it back to 2011 you’d see something remarkably reminiscent of today’s trend. You’d see Leveler spike in September 2011—to be more precise, thanks to this guy:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Laboratory Maniac

Winning with an empty library isn’t a new concept. Back in 2011, people went wild over Leveler, Divining Witch, and Paradigm Shift. Now there’s another card that does the same thing, and people are going crazy all over again. This is the part that causes me to scratch my head.

I was around doing MTG finance in 2011. I even bought a bunch of Paradigm Shifts and Divining Witches, only to get burnt by them. I couldn’t flip them fast enough, and I was left holding a small stack of $0.10 rares. Now I’m seeing the same buyouts occur a second time. I bet some people are even going to make a big profit flipping these cards.

My advice: don’t bother. If you didn’t already have copies in hand, you’re likely going to have a tough time flipping these for worthwhile profits. Just like Leveler did from 2012 until 2018, you’ll see these cards drop right back down in price all over again. History is going to repeat itself unless this Jace gives the “empty library” deck redundancy it needs to suddenly break into Modern or Legacy. I don’t think it’s a stretch for me to predict that won’t happen.

Wrapping It Up

It’s impossible to stay on top of every trend in Magic. With new cards coming at us all the time, reprints on the horizon, and a seemingly limitless set of options for buying and selling cards, you can’t know the pricing trend on every card all the time. If enough people overlook something, it can appear quite odd to the alert observer.

This week I wanted to share three distinct trends that screamed “strange” to me. ABUGames’s business strategy has me buying cards from them with the sole intent of selling them right back. Then there’s Mana Crypt’s spike—apparently a privilege saved only for Eternal Masters copies. Lastly there’s the repeated buyouts of horrible Magic cards that empty your library. Each of these trends leave me scratching my head.

But you know what? We don’t have to understand these trends to take advantage of them. Now that everyone’s aware, I encourage you to act accordingly until the oddity is no longer present. By then, I’m sure there will be three more counterintuitive trends to take their place!

…

Sigbits

  • Card Kingdom’s buylist has finally cooled down on Dual Lands. For a while they were getting quite aggressive. Instead, I noticed they’ve been warming up to Jace, the Mind Sculptor. This card keeps climbing in price and Card Kingdom’s buylist reflects the trend. They’re offering $90 for the Worldwake version. And while they only pay $80 on the other nonfoil versions, I suspect this to bump higher soon enough.
  • There are a ton of foils on Card Kingdom’s hotlist now. They’ve really stepped up their foil game lately, and it shows! For example, they pay $85 for foil Crop Rotation (a common!) and $105 for foil Timeshifted Gemstone Mine.
  • What blows me away the most, though, is Card Kingdom’s aggressiveness on Unlimited. I see their buy prices fluctuate constantly depending on how many they get in stock, but they inevitably sell out every time and the price marches higher. Now they’ve got a buy price of $10,200 for Black Lotus, $2,880 for Mox Jet, $2,400 for Timetwister, and $2,280 for Mox Ruby. These are amazing numbers.

War of the Spark Spoiler Specs

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War of the Spark spoiler season has finally started, and we’re starting to see what the set is all about. With a bit of information we can infer more, and that means the market is already in motion.

For example, the reveal of the proliferate keyword on a single card implied more support to come, and the market has reacted with spikes on cards like Atraxa, Praetors' Voice and Contagion Engine. The set’s impact is going to be felt everywhere, from Commander spikes like Atraxa, to Eternal formats, and of course to Standard.

Zombies look to play an important part in War of the Spark. They can be found in four colors so far and are central to the amass mechanic. That mechanic also has a powerful flagship in Dreadhorde Invasion, which has been compared to Bitterblossom. Eternal Taskmaster is high-quality Zombie with an ability fitting for the tribe, and helps lay the groundwork for a real Zombie tribal deck in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Death Baron

Liliana, Untouched by Death has already spiked, but Death Baron remains a very juicy opportunity. It's showing clear signs of growth and won’t be so cheap for long. Also consider the card was over $20 before being reprinted in Core Set 2019, so the long-term potential is high.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underrealm Lich

Zombies in other colors also open up the possibility for a multicolor Zombie deck. One pairing is green, with the new Storrev, Devkarin Lich being a big draw. That brings attention to Underrealm Lich, another Golgari Zombie with graveyard synergy.

It has shown some growth online, up from 0.8 tix to 1.1, so there might be paper growth to follow. As a $2 mythic that will be in Standard for over another year, there’s potential. Like Storrev it also happens to be an Elf, and that crossover demand could help if Elf tribal sees more support. The set does bring a very strong new Elf in Paradise Druid, so it’s a possibility.

Red is also shaping up to be a Zombie color, and strong one at that. There is a lot of support for amass in red so far, including Widespread Brutality. Dreadhorde Arcanist is one of the best-looking cards in the set so far, and its Zombie status could take it even further. Death Baron increasing its power would allow it to cast more expensive spells, for example. Dreadhorde Butcher is another strong red Zombie, and another beneficiary from an anthem effect. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thud

A cheap spec that might yield some large gains is Thud, which is being talked about because of its potential with Dreadhorde Butcher. It unlocks the death trigger, and with a pump spell like Collision // Colossus can actually lead to a turn three-kill.

It’s still about a quarter, but has actually shown on up on lists of moving cards this week. Uncommons from Core Sets becoming expensive is not out of the ordinary. I could easily see this selling for $1 or more at some point, especially if you can offload them in person at events for a premium.

Another nasty interaction from War of the Spark is the leaked Ral, Storm Conduit going infinite by copying the front end of Expansion // Explosion. This leads to a chain-reaction of copy triggers on a spell of your choice, with Shock being the cleanest option to end the game.

Expansion // Explosion is already a premium Standard card, and the planeswalker looks decent on its own, so it’s no stretch for this to become a real top-tier deck. Whether it’s when Ral is officially spoiled, or not until it becomes a staple, I think it’s only a matter of time before Expansion // Explosion sees significant growth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blood Crypt

Rakdos in general looks to be one of the best guilds in the set, with some great cards like Angrath's Rampage. No surprise we’re seeing increase in some Rakdos staples online, including Blood Crypt and Rix Maadi Reveler.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Trashmaster

The Goblin tribe wasn’t left out of War of the Spark either, and Krenko, Tin Street Kingpinlooks pretty powerful. Goblin Trashmaster has nudged up in price in both online and paper. Given that it doesn’t have much downside at this level below $1, this might be a good spec.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Trostani Discordant

Selesnya is also seeing increased demand, likely on the back of the new Ajani, the Greathearted. It brings back memories of Ajani Goldmane, which was a Standard staple, and should become a staple now by outshining Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants.

Trostani Discordant is particularly attractive, as is Knight of Autumn, which could also benefit from proliferate shenanigans in a Bant deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Benthic Biomancer

A card with the potential to get much better with War of the Spark is Benthic Biomancer. It’s the perfect card to pair with proliferate, since each added counter will trigger a loot effect.

The leak of Roalesk, Apex Hybrid shows that proliferate could be quite powerful, and Benthic Biomancer has already tripled on MTGO from 0.1 to 0.3. I think it’s a real bargain now under $1, especially given that it has become a staple of Modern Merfolk and has utility beyond Standard rotation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromatic Lantern

Niv-Mizzet Reborn brings attention to five-color decks, whether in Standard or Commander, which explains an uptick in the price of Chromatic Lantern. Its price bottomed out at $3.50 but is now up to $5, and doesn’t look to ever be cheaper until it’s reprinted again.

The card was $15 before being reprinted, so demand will likely catch up and bring the price above $10 eventually, even if it does take a few years. I like Chromatic Lantern for its long-term potential, and any Standard play for Niv-Mizzet Reborn would be bonus.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sarkhan, Fireblood

One card that might go hand-in-hand with Niv-Mizzet Reborn if it does make its way to Standard is Sarkhan, Fireblood. It provides a nice way to get around the restrictive five-color mana cost, allowing it to be cast in a three-color deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sensei's Divining Top

Bolas's Citadel might make an impact in Standard—but it’s obviously going to see a ton of play in Commander and all variety of casual formats.

A very simple and extremely powerful way to abuse the card is with Sensei's Divining Top, which basically turns it into a Yawgmoth's Bargain. There has already been a noticeable uptick in the price of Sensei's Divining Top, and I like its long-term prospects.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leveler

It’s pretty wild, but Leveler is being discussed as a way to speculate on the new Jace, Wielder of Mysteries. Its static ability is the same as that of Laboratory Maniac, so combining it with Leveler would lead to an instant victory. Whether or not people are actually going to build decks around this remains to be seen, but foil copies doubling from $4.40 to $9 means at least someone is banking on it.

-Adam

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