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Jason’s Archives: More Riddles

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Greetings, Speculators!

Riddle Me This: When is a Joke Not a Joke?

When Avacyn Restored was in the spoiling phase, a card caught the attention of the QS staff and Doug Linn sent the insiders an e-mail with a hot tip.

The spoiling of Misthollow Griffin was certain to put upward pressure on the cost of Food Chain and now was the time to get it because it was 24-48 hours away from quintupling in price. Since the griffin could be played from exile, it interacted nicely with a host of Legacy cards. It was a great card to pitch to Force of Will since it could just be played later. Your opponent's Swords to Plowshares don't phase the griffin (or rather they DO phase the griffin, temporarily relegating him to another zone until he returns, akin to the phasing mechanic). But the most important interaction the Braumeisters of the world concocted when they saw griffin was that with Food Chain.

Food Chain allows players to exile a creature they control and get X + 1 mana of any color where X is the creature's cost. A popular Legacy deck of yesteryear featured the use of Food Chain in conjunction with increasingly-expensive Goblins. How useful is [card Goblin Lackey]Lackey[/card] once it's already connected to the dome? Why not make it a Goblin Piledriver?

But with Griffin, exiling it for five blue mana only to turn around and use four of it to replay griffin nets you an arbitrarily large but finite amount of mana. This mana can only be used to play creature spells, but that seems OK given all the creatures printed over the years with useful abilities. An infinite amount of mana to cast creatures can still get you all the Mulldrifters you can chain together, or a hardcast [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card]. When is a Fireball not a Fireball? When it's Maga, Traitor to Mortals, an excellent mana sink for all of that creature-only mana.

Most insiders saw Doug's e-mail and lol'd. Food Chain spiked as predicted, and many of us, myself included, made bank on buying Food Chain for two dollars and shipping them on eBay for over $40 a playset. Not a bad payday. I picked up foil Food Chains for $6 as well and managed to sell out of them. Generally the "let's play this goofy combo" crowd and the "let's foil this Legacy deck completely" crowd don't have a ton of overlap, but foil Food Chains were a commodity for a short time.

Once more Avacyn Restored cards were spoiled, people found other cards to brew with, leaving a very small contingent of devotees to pore over the list of useful creatures and try to perfect a deck I'm calling Griffin Food.

One such devotee was a man without whom Quiet Speculation.com could not function: content manager Tyler Tyssedal. If you have a mind like a steel trap, you may remember that months ago I mentioned Griffin Food in the Legacy deck coverage portion of that bastion of cutting edge Legacy tech that is this column. A lot of you lol'd. It was there that I mentioned that Tyler was hard at work on perfecting the deck for posterity and that he liked to play it at Legacy events in the Minneapolis area.

No one's loling now.

I'll wait for you to click the link. Your eyes aren't deceiving you, faithful readers. That is really a link to a deck tech interview where QS' own Tyler Tyssedal is having a serious conversation with another human being and fielding serious questions about his serious deck that he's playing in a serious, actual, for-real event. For serious. Always maintaining that the deck is more fun than it is competitive, Tyler nonetheless managed to get the SCG coverage team to take notice.

Tyler finished in 162nd place at the SCG event in Minneapolis, which isn't great. You know what IS great? Griffin Food, a deck that is a lot of things and isn't a lot of things. It's not competitive but it is fun. It's not going to win an event soon but it is going to get a lot of attention. It's not RUG Delver or Sneak and Show but at least it isn't RUG Delver or Sneak and Show because Legacy doesn't need more of that. It needs more Griffin Food.

Due to the SCG Opens, Legacy is being played more now than ever before. Chances are you don't go alone to events in other cities. You probably go in a car with other people. Even if you aren't inclined to put the time into building and tuning Legacy decks, you're already at the event on Sunday if any of your buddies are. You can putz around the event center, you can putz around the city (Pro Tip-- if you're in Minneapolis, for example, this is not the play) or you can booster draft. Or, you can sleeve up Griffin Food and have a few laughs.

Trust me, it's impossible to maintain a serious composure and a competitive attitude when you have to say things like "I'll cast Fierce Empath to search my library for Aethersnipe." Every once in a while you need to play Magic for fun, and this is a deck that will get you there. Personally, I prefer Cloudstone Curio Kobolds (I'll cast grapeshot for 12 trillion) but to each their own. Give this deck a shot if you want to spend the entire day laughing and getting high fives.

Good job, Tyler.

Riddle Me This: When Is a Profit Not a Profit?

I don't have Cable. Sometimes it's an issue, like when I have to watch a grainy download or wait for months to watch Game of Thrones or Walking Dead. But considering to the amount of money I'm not paying to not have Cable it seems like a no brainer. Netflix is approximately 65 cents a month for streaming and there are more hours of content there than there are hours in the average lifetime. Even though it's El Cheapo.

When I did have Cable, I would watch anything that was on when I was sorting collections. One such show was "Storage Wars", a show about people buying storage units in auctions and trying to sell the stuff they found inside for a profit.

From what I have seen, it's a pretty hit or miss process, and when a member of the show finds information online they don't understand, it can lead to some pretty hilarious situations. For example, an NES and 5 games sold on eBay for $13,000 a few years ago. This had nothing to do with the NES itself (unbeknownst to the seller who posted the auction), but rather to the inclusion of an incredibly rare game called Stadium Events in its original box. This lead to a hilarious situation where a guy thought the broken NES he found in a unit was worth 13 grand because of its serial number.

I always wondered if these people were getting a decent profit for the stuff they found, because they often consulted experts on unfamiliar items, who would try to get them for as cheap as possible. It wasn't until Storage Wars ran across some materials I knew all about that I realized how much better they could fare if they were more knowledgeable.

Best I can do is 50 bucks.

Any reader of this site, given a Collector's Edition [card Mox Pearl]Mox[/card] and [card Timetwister]Twister[/card] and an Unlimited [card Black Lotus]Lotus[/card] could probably do a bit better than selling the entire binder for $700. It makes me wonder how badly they get ripped off selling other stuff, or whether they care. $700 is well below buylist for this stuff, but for a quick flip they did OK. It just goes to show how hard it is to keep abreast of the myriad different collectibles and antiques out there. It seems unfair that the people who get to live every Magic player's dream of stumbling across power for cheap don't even maximize their profit.

Still, it goes to show that what I said in my series about shop crawling is true. There is treasure out there waiting to be uncovered but you're not going to find it sitting at home. Maybe pull over next time you drive past that garage sale, or check out that shop a few towns over that has a faded Magic poster from Tempest block but doesn't run events. There is good stuff out there, so go find it.

Riddle Me This: When Is Classic Not an Online Format?

I have a lot of coverage so I will go through it quickly.

In Knoxville this weekend Star City had a Standard Classic.

Knoxville Deck Lists

Once again, GW Aggro takes top honors. It's tough to combat the synergy between efficient green beaters, good CIP abilities and Restoration Angel. Sublime Archangel makes an appearance here, and this card is perhaps the best way to make use of mana dorks late in the game since Fauna Shaman. Thragtusk was played here to great effect, cementing its place as format staple. Congrats to David Rackza on his win.

Also beating with the tuskmaster general was Joseph Page who decided copying tusk with Phantasmal Image was a worthwhile pursuit. Resembling Bant control decks from the past, black is added here for more removal and to cast the September FNM promo Lingering Souls. Souls gives the deck a ton of reach without removing anything essential from the Bant-only lists, and it is perhaps the best configuration of the deck I've seen. Good job Joseph.

In the "making me laugh" category we have a W/B Trading Post deck. It even runs a Staff of Nin! I couldn't be happier that this deck beat a bunch of [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] and [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card] decks to make Top 16.

Lots of Delver decks in the Top 16, more than we've seen at previous events. Perhaps indicative more of the metagame in Knoxville than the metagame at large. Delver ruled the top 16 with seven copies, including one [card Talrand, Sky Summoner]Talrand[/card] variant.

Let's test my hypothesis about the metagame in Knoxville by examining the Standard decks from the SCG Open in Minneapolis.

Minneapolis Standard Deck Lists

And we have an embarrassment of Delver decks. Not quite what I was hoping to see, Delver comprised a full 50% of the Top 16. While it didn't win either event, it was over-represented in the top echelons of both.

Perhaps Stephen Hink's inclusion of Flames of the Firebrand in his winning B/R Zombies list was included to help against Delver decks. Making short work of Lingering Souls, murdering a pile of Phantasmal Images or merely bolting the face, this card has a lot of applications and may warrant a deeper look.

Straight to the point and not messing around with Killing Wave or equipment, Hink's deck packed four copies of every beater, including Falkenrath Aristocrat. If you went deep on this guy when I recommended, you're probably feeling pretty good right now as the card has spiked to $8 and shows no signs of stopping.

Something about a deck with red not running any Bonfire of the Damned makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.

Speaking of Bonfire, isn't it curious that the Top 16 saw exactly three copies in Minneapolis and seven in Knoxville? Maybe this card doesn't need to be $50 like some have predicted. In light of a red deck winning an event without it, perhaps we don't need to join it since we can beat it after all.

I Guess I Can Talk about a Few Decks Other Than Griffin Food

(But I don't have to be happy about it.)

Legacy Deck Lists from Minneapolis

Blah blah blah here we have a standard Legacy top GREAT GOOGILY MOOGILY, what is THAT?

Click here for a warm, fuzzy feeling

Scapeshift? Huntmaster of the Fells? Thragtusk? What manner of ridiculousness is this? A Jund-colored twist on a traditional Nic Fit build, of course, with Scapeshift added for one-shot KOs. After ramping with a Veteran Explorer or two, the deck Scapeshifts into the tried-and-true double [card Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle]Valakut[/card] plus a pile of duals. Also, Primeval Titan, because why not? Sun Titan is good in traditional Nic Fit, and Prime Time is similarly silly.

Who said you couldn't play Valakut in Legacy? Thanks to Eric Warns for giving us all something to think about.

The hits keep coming!

During Kamigawa/Ravnica Standard I played Sea Stompy. Quick beats from Kird Ape, control in the form of Plaxmanta, recursion from Ninja of the Deep Hours, countermagic, burn spells: this deck had it all. Since then, we have gotten plenty of blue and green creatures even more worthy than Plaxmanta of a trip back to hand via ninjitsu trickery. Snapcaster Mage, Spellstutter Sprite, Venser, Shaper Savant, etc.

Brandon Semerau ported the Extended "Faeries" deck from four years ago to Legacy and turned it into Mono-Blue Tempo. Jace's Phantasm is getting his first serious consideration as a flying mongoose, his lack of shroud mitigated by the sheer amount of control in the deck. Playing a ton of instants flips [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card], powers Snapcaster Mage and gives Jace's Phantasm quite a boost.

This deck, perhaps the first to play Vapor Snag in Legacy, controls the tempo of the game to great effect. An empty board on the other side allows you to swing with creatures like Snapcaster Mage which can be deadly if you're holding Ninja of the Deep Hours. The evasion on Spellstutter Sprite makes it a great ninja target as well, and casting Sprite early and often is never a bad idea. If it were me, I'd jam a Mistblade Shinobi or two, but that's me.

Still no Academy Rector popping up in a Top 8 Omniscience or Hive Mind list, but expect that to change soon.

Kyle Olson got there with a relatively standard Junk list. This is a good time to be playing Knight of the Reliquary decks as you don't have to jam three copies of Karakas in the sideboard like some decks. Between Knight main and potentially some copies of Crop Rotation in the board you should be able to keep [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] or Griselbrand out of your grill.

Great job, Kyle!

One More Thing Before I Go

I could easily devote another 2,500 words to the Players Championship, won by Yuuya Watanabe. The full coverage is here on the mothership and it's all worth reading, from cube draft to Modern. There is something in there for everyone, and I hope there is a Players Championship every year from now on.

That's All for Today

Make sure you check out the RTR Spoiler page full of great spoilers and analysis from Sigmund and yours truly. We'll be bringing you new cards as soon as we find them and, best of all, this page is in our free section so make sure to share it with your friends.

Until next time, keep brewing, and don't play anything I wouldn't play.

Jason Alt
@JasonEAlt on Twitter

Insider: Get rid of your losers before RTR comes out!

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Chances are, you're going to make a lot of money from RTR because you're going to be actively reading and trading all through the next month or so. However, you have got to avoid losing money along the way, too! You don't want to be stuck with Magic cards that you could have sold a few weeks ago for double the value.

Biggest Loser: Huntmaster of the Fells

Currently updating his resume.

Huntmaster was an incredible card - it's a fun, reversible Kitchen Finks. A lot of Insiders made a lot of money on it. Huntmaster briefly looked a little better when Lightning Bolt wasn't in M13, but Bonfire of the Damned's continued dominance has been holding it down. I see Huntmaster taking the final bow because of Mizzium Mortars.

Mizzium Mortars looks boring; it just kills dudes, after all. The 3RRR cost is a lot to pay. On the other hand, it's a sweeper like Bonfire that will knock only their monsters. Some prominent people on Twitter have been saying that it's the real deal and I'm inclined to agree with them. The chance to use it as a general Flame Slash makes for a decent card and the Overload is achievable. Bonfire typically takes nine mana to do the same amount of damage! Since it becomes untargeted when you Overload the card, it can also kill Geist of Saint Traft. The Mortars are going to see play and they can kill both sides of the Huntmaster.

I'll make an aside here to note that this can have a warping effect similar to what Flametongue Kavu did. For those who weren't playing a decade ago, FTK was a powerhouse card that every deck ran. It was splashable and would always 2-for-1 or better an opponent. The most warping thing about it was that FTK made playing monsters of 4 toughness a terrible idea. You could still play little UW 2/2s like Meddling Mage, but investing in the newly-reprinted (and hyped) Serra Angel was awful. You'd spend 3WW for the Angel and then have her bite it to a 4/2 that stuck around. The defining Invasion block card, Desolation Angel, pulled off having a small butt only because she stopped the opponent from actually casting FTKs. Mizzium Mortars might have a similar effect. Beware of monsters that are x/4 and ask for a lot of mana. Restoration Angel will be fine, but don't put a lot of stock into other guys. There's a good chance that the new Niv Mizzet will see a lot of play as a finisher, but if it were still a 4/4, it would be getting Mortared out of the sky and not played. Remember this warping effect.

We also cannot discount Izzet Charm. Izzet Guild used to be this goofy, unplayable guild in Ravnica with clunkers like Tibor and Lumia that just happened to have a very useful signet for the Tron deck. The Charm can Shock something, which means it'll take out an unflipped Huntmaster. It's also a pretty strong spell on its own (as I mentioned last week). When Ravnica first came out, it was so unlike Champions of Kamigawa that people started jamming lots of cards and decks together in the beginning to see what worked. I think the same thing will happen here. There are a few holdover cards like Geists and Snapcasters that people will continue to play, but Ravnica is really going to help us when playing specific Guilds and those benefits might not actually reward us for playing Innistrad. Izzet Charm is going to be a part of the new Standard for at least a few weeks. With it and Mizzium Mortars joining Bonfire, it's time to get rid of those Huntmasters that you still have. He's not going to get the love that he used to.

The Collateral Damage: Bonfire of the Damned

With all the talk about Mizzium Mortars above, you've got to wonder whether Mortars will replace Bonfire and the Miracle will tank in value. This isn't going to happen because a lot of decks are still going to be able to cast Bonfire for retail and profit. They'll have some of the ubiquitous ramp from Ravnica and play a Bonfire for X=2 on turn 4 naturally. However, now that decks are going to have the option of "play Bonfire and hope to Miracle it because casting won't really happen," decks can ask about Mortars. I think we'll see people running Mortars over Bonfire since it's a better fit in non-ramp decks and the mere option should pull people off of the Mythic. People have been wondering whether Bonfire will hit $50 and Mizzium Mortars is the speedbump that will stop it from hitting that level. How much it affects the Bonfire remains to be seen.

The Called Reversal: Cursecatcher

Judge's Familiar is a 1000% upgrade to Cursecatcher - this thing even flies! How great! However, it's not a Merfolk, which means that it's much worse than the crummy Cursecatcher. Cursecatcher snatches a few dollars because it's an early-curve monster in Merfolk with a sometimes-relevant ability. This bird is better, but it doesn't become a 2/2 on the second turn and then a 3/3 soon afterward.

I have a feeling that people are going to get rid of their Cursecatchers and not realize the fact that the Familiar isn't a good replacement. The price in trades might drop for the next few weeks. If you encounter this, jump on it. Merfolk isn't a great deck at this point and it's middling in Modern, but it has devoted players. If people are coming off of their Cursecatchers in anticipation of Judge's Familiar, you stand to profit.

 Unrelated Blatant Hope For A Return To The Past: Chromatic Lantern

I love Coalition Relics a lot. They ramp up into really good spells on turn 4 and they make the pain of actually worrying about your manabase go away. I'm hoping that there are enough reasons to run the Lantern that 5-color Control becomes a thing again. Coalition Control of seasons past ran four Relics, four Prismatic Lenses and just said "to hell with the color pie! Cast those Ancient Grudges and Draining Whelks and Tendrils of Corruption all you want!" Cards like this can be very dangerous in Standard because there may be an effective strategy in jamming everything. It also almost exclusively rewards control decks. This card in play means you're kicking Mizzium Mortars on turn 5 all day long. You're certainly not spending Lanterns to cast whatever Watchwolves come along. This card is a real steal at the $5 it's currently selling for.

More Rampant Speculation About Goblin Storm

Guttersnipe is like a Tendrils of Agony on legs and Goblin Electromancer makes things much easier to cast. I have to wonder whether we'll see constructed-worthy decks that aim to land Guttersnipe and then cast Rituals and blast through the deck with Faithless Looting. There's also a shot that Guttersnipe is just good in Delver decks by itself. While you're losing a lot of the good cantrips, it really makes good use of Snapcaster Mage and things like Gitaxian Probe.

Have You Got Your Sigardas Yet? Why Not?

Sigarda, Host of Herons is currently about $5 shipped. This is a real deal, too. Here's why: big killers are always at a premium. Things that kill big creatures are also really common right now. If you play that new Niv Mizzet and the opponent Azorius Charms it to the top of your library, you're going to wish he just cast Remand instead. Otherwise, they might peel off a Selesnya Charm and play Retribution with it. Sigarda dodges all of that stuff. She even dodges Mizzium Mortars! What a heck of a card. I'd imagine we'll see plenty of decks running Selesnya Charms and topping out on Sigarda.

Okay, so that escalated quickly. There's more to talk about in RTR next week! Until then,

-Doug Linn

Insider: Timing Is Everything

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Finance writers, myself included, are always discussing cards they are buying and selling. We are quick to identify cards that are possibly due for a price increase and we are sometimes able to point out when a card has hit its peak.

All these articles make it seem like finance writers are the cowboys of MTG finance. They take wild risks, they buy hundreds of a card and hope to run up the price. And they are not as accurate as they make themselves to appear. This is not wholly true.

I buy cards with the hope of profiting on them – of that there is no secret. But what some people may overlook is the fact that the majority of my purchases are not solely based on speculation. In fact, being so risk averse, very few of my hard-earned dollars go into pure speculation. Why take such high risks when there are better reasons to buy cards?

The Hype Curve

Cards don’t increase in price overnight (unless they are unbanned from constructed play). There is often a period of a few days to a week where the card price slowly rises before making what appears to be a significant jump.

The most recent example I can site is Overmaster (chart from blacklotusproject.com):

Observe how the card was making a steady rise throughout July and most of August, but recently the card has spiked. It’s almost as if there were a few people truly speculating on this card and when it gained some notice, the masses decided it was worth jumping in.

Of course, much like other cards which go through a brief period of hype, I’m willing to take a guess at how this curve will look in September and October…

Okay, maybe this is a bit pessimistic. If Overmaster sees fringe Legacy (such as Troy Thompson's Omni-Tell deck from this past weekend) play it could end up in the $2-$3 range, kind of like Trickbind or Angel's Grace. But it will probably hit a peak soon and then pull back.

Let’s dissect this curve a little further. Here, we can try and identify what type of buyers are purchasing a card like Overmaster as it passes through this hype curve.

Buying Overmaster in July when it was initially “noticed” would have been very risky. This is where the true speculators play. They identify a card that saw Legacy play for the first time ever in someone’s sideboard and they snap-buy a bunch. I call this area high risk based on the likelihood of return. In a way, the risk isn’t really too high since copies of this card could be had for $0.25 at the time. But the likelihood of profit was still debatable.

In the middle of the chart, the card already gained some traction. Pros may have taken notice to the card, testing it out in MTGO events. This is where the risk level begins to diminish but the potential reward has shrunk, due to the card’s doubling in price.

Finally, right before the huge spike is the pump and dump zone. This is where many speculators buy out eBay and TCG Player, driving the price up to a ridiculous high only to sell them right away. At this stage, finding a copy of Overmaster below $1 was the easiest way to make money since the card was already selling for over $2 on eBay. As long as you are thorough in your search to ensure you are paying less than auction prices, there really is a low degree of risk here.

When I “speculate”, I try to participate in the second half of that curve. I wait for the card to gather some attention and maybe buy a set. Then when I observe that I can sell this set on eBay for profit and we are approaching the price spike, I scour the internet for any underpriced copies of the card (side note – in this case it was Amazon and Card Shark, where I bought 8 copies and 5 copies respectively for under $1 each shipped). I made this purchase only after seeing sets selling on eBay for over $2 each.

A well-known finance writer once sent me a Tweet that appeared condescending at first, but truly was a solid piece of advice in the end. I had been sharing my thoughts on Food Chain being a good speculation target (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

To paraphrase, this well-known writer told me that what I was doing was not true speculation. Rather, I was merely practicing good timing.

While this offended me at first, I later realized he was absolutely right. Food Chain was already noticed as a speculation target and I was merely buying underpriced copies and selling them for profit. This is precisely where I like to play. It keeps risk down and it nets me rapid profit.

Real Estate

I’m not advocating only waiting for these opportunities to buy cards. After all, this would lead to long periods of stagnation when your money could be working for you!

In between the hyped cards, I often try to slowly acquire cards I have high reason to believe will be stable or even increase in value. I’ve already discussed the Innistrad Dual Lands to oblivion, so I won’t waste space here elaborating upon why I felt these were a constant buy in the past couple months.

Real Estate is generally a solid approach to take even beyond Innistrad Duals – especially if the land cards are playable in Eternal formats. Everyone knows about the Zendikar Fetch Lands, and I make it a point to always have an extra dozen or so in my trade binder. When I have the chance to trade them away or sell them for profit, I do so only to restock them again when I find a deal (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Other Real Estate I’ve got my eyes on now are the Scars of Mirrodin Fast Lands. After spiking to double digits a couple months ago, the blue ones are hitting lows as they approach rotation. But these lands do see some play in Modern and they supplement mana bases of aggressive decks very well.

I just may be looking to pick up my set of 20 Fast Lands in the coming months if I can find a good price. Don’t agree? Just compare the chart of Seachrome Coast with the charts of the Filter Lands, which also see some Modern play (charts from blacklotusproject.com).

High Turnover

Another category of cards I actively purchase are cards which I find generally easy to move. Whether it is in trades or sales, I always strive for high turnover in my binder. Cards that I can move quickly, especially at a premium to what I bought them at, are cards I often like to purchase.

A recent example of a card like this is Chrome Mox (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

While it may appear this card has fallen out of favor, I had no difficulties moving the couple extra copies I owned at GP Boston. This card appears to move in cycles, possibly with Legacy or Modern seasons. Either way, I always like to have ubiquitous staples like these in my trade binder. Other examples include Aether Vial, Vampiric Tutor and, of course, Dual Lands.

I don’t necessarily buy every copy of these cards that I can find. Instead, I do occasional eBay and MOTL searches to see if anyone is selling these cards at a discount. If so, I make my move. But again, the idea here is that I’m taking very little risks when I acquire these cards at a discount knowing they aren’t too difficult to move.

It’s Not About The Glory Of Speculation

I am not a frequent speculator – I am way too risk averse. In fact, I’ve had a couple abysmal experiences with true speculation. Past in Flames and Skaab Ruinator were both cards I bought into with no success.

I find the easiest way to profit without major risk is to a) buy cards at the right time, b) buy into Real Estate at their price floors and c) buy into cards that are always easy to move. Perhaps this sets me apart from other finance writers. Or perhaps I’m more honest with myself when I confess I am no great guesser.

Instead, I take pride in being good at scouring the internet for good prices and timing my purchases well. This is how I’ve made my profits and I think it’s very reproducible.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Latest Innovations in Standard

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The last time I spoke about competitive Magic, I said that even though the end of the current Standard is near, there is still a lot of room to grow. I was excited to see this prediction in action at the World Magic Cup. Two different decks stood out to me from this event and I want to talk about both of them today.

The first deck on my list is Mono-Green Infect. I know you might be saying that this deck is nothing new, but when M13 first came out most players dismissed it as a competitor. Now a lot of players are jumping on board so you should take it more seriously. Infect is capable of some blazingly fast kills and despite its low number of creatures is actually quite resilient.

There are three newer cards that really make this deck a pillar of the format: Cathedral of War, Rancor, and Wild Defiance.

I have spoken at great length about how amazing Rancor is. I know there will be a lot of Rancor action in my deck lists over the next year. With a low curve and a monocolored mana base, Cathedral of War also seems like an obvious inclusion.

Wild Defiance is hard card to nail down in terms of powerful level. The effect it provides is obviously powerful, but it does require you to have other instants and sorceries in hand to do anything. While the deck can win without Wild Defiance, the enchantment reminds me of Tempered Steel in that winning is much easier when you have it. That being said, there is some discussion about whether the deck actually needs it or not.

Take a look at two different versions of the deck.

Mono-Green Infect
by Grgur Petric-Maretic
5th Place at World Magic Cup 2012

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Glistener Elf
4 Ichorclaw Myr
1 Blight Mamba
1 Viridian Corrupter

Spells

4 Rancor
4 Wild Defiance
4 Apostles Blessing
4 Gut Shot
3 Mental Misstep
4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Titanic Growth
2 Green Suns Zenith

Lands

4 Cathedral of War
4 Inkmoth Nexus
13 Forest

Sideboard

3 Spellskite
3 Viridian Corrupter
2 Beast Within
4 Dismember
1 Mental Misstep
1 Withstand Death
1 Melira, Sylvok Outcast

Mono-Green Infect
suggested by Todd Anderson

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Glistener Elf
4 Ichorclaw Myr
1 Blight Mamba
1 Viridian Corrupter

Spells

4 Rancor
3 Wild Defiance
1 Dismember
4 Gut Shot
3 Mental Misstep
4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Rangers Guile
4 Titanic Growth
2 Green Suns Zenith

Lands

4 Cathedral of War
4 Inkmoth Nexus
13 Forest

Sideboard

3 Livewire Lash
3 Spellskite
1 Viridian Corrupter
2 Apostles Blessing
2 Dismember
1 Mental Misstep
2 Naturalize
1 Melira, Sylvok Outcast

As you can see, there are not many differences between these two decks. The main difference is which pump effects the deck runs and in what numbers. I would imagine that each player has a slightly different list depending on their play style.

Even Melira, Sylvok Outcast is often not enough to stop this deck because they can just kill you with damage. Wild Defiance pumps your creature up quickly on top of the pump spell you cast in order to trigger the enchantment.

One of the best ways to disrupt this deck is by using your instant speed removal on your own turn. This seems counter-intuitive, but it's really just playing smart. If you use your Gut Shot on your turn, it turns their Mutagenic Growth into just a Counterspell instead of a Counterspell plus pump spell. By making this change, you force your opponent to decide how important their creature is. Do they waste a pump spell on your turn, or do they let their creature die? It is a tough situation to be in.

The second deck I wanted to mention is my favorite deck of recent memory. The deck plays like Mono Black Zombies but it also has Birthing Pod. It's more of a midrange deck but there are still some aggressive draws as well. Some other players have tried to include Birthing Pod in Zombies before but this list streamlines the two ideas and makes them flow well together.

With Blood Artist, Geralf's Messenger, and Birthing Pod, this deck feels more like a combo deck sometimes. Often you kill your opponent from ten or more life just by sacrificing a bunch of your creatures. Take a look.

Zombie Pod
by Tamás Glied
4th Place at World Magic Cup 2012

Untitled Deck

Creatures

3 Blood Artist
1 Butcher Ghoul
4 Fume Spitter
4 Geralfs Messenger
4 Gravecrawler
1 Massacre Wurm
4 Phantasmal Image
1 Skaab Ruinator
2 Skinrender
2 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Thragtusk

Spells

4 Birthing Pod
1 Mortarpod
4 Tragic Slip

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
4 Darkslick Shores
4 Drowned Catacomb
4 Woodland Cemetery
8 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Sylvok Lifestaff
1 Phyrexian Obliterator
1 Reaper from the Abyss
1 Skirsdag High Priest
1 Thragtusk
1 Trinket Mage
2 Doom Blade
2 Gut Shot
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Distress

My favorite inclusion here is Skaab Ruinator. I have been telling people for quite a while how good he is in Birthing Pod decks. I know it takes a lot to cast, but the reward is worth the investment. You are already sacrificing creatures left and right so your graveyard should be stocked.

One thing I don’t like about this deck is the lack of Ravenous Rats. I think the reprinting of Rats was a lot more important than players are giving it credit for. It is a good card, especially for a Birthing Pod deck. I will be working on this deck in the next couple of weeks and my first change will be to add a few Rats.

Standard is still evolving. Is there a deck you have built recently that no one is talking about? If so, post what you’re working on below and maybe it will make it into my next article. Have fun with Standard while you can because it’s all about to change soon with Return to Ravnica.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force on Standard!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Listening to the Market

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Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a hedge fund set up in the 1990s that had a financial model designed to identify market discrepancies. Their idea was that if you had two very similar assets, but the market priced them differently, then over time they should converge in price. The fund would buy the 'cheap' asset, and short the 'expensive' asset. Once prices converged, they would make money. Applying this strategy, the fund was very successful out of the gate, achieving 40% annualized returns after fees in it's early years.

It all went bad for LTCM, though, as they made bets that were sound according to their model, but the market proved wrong. Their model suggested that the market was undervaluing Japanese and European bonds during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. So, they bought these bonds and sold US bonds.

Before prices could converge, however, the Russian government defaulted on it's debt in 1998 which triggered a massive flight to safety, driving up the price of US bonds and driving down the price of Japanese and European bonds. When your short positions are rising in price and your long positions are falling in price, things can get pretty ugly. The resulting losses for the fund were huge, forcing a bailout and the fund was closed in 2000.

LTCM's bet would have eventually proven correct as the price of bonds did converge after the fact, but, in the short term, they didn't have the capital to ride out the turbulent market. The smart people (Nobel prize winners in fact) at LTCM had a very sound model, but when an unusual event occurred, their model couldn't cope with what was happening in the market. Once the market decides that you are wrong, it doesn't matter how sophisticated your model or trading strategy, the market will win.

Listening to the market and knowing when to change direction is an essential skill to develop.

The Market Speaks

Prices for most Modern staples have been drifting down since the end of the PTQ season. This is a predictable seasonal cycle based on what the player base is interested in playing. Using this simple (but accurate) model, it's easy to suggest that buying staples in the off season and selling in season is a sure fire way to profit. But for the exact moments of when to buy and sell, one will have to pay closer attention to the market.

At the end of May, right in the middle of online Avacyn Restored release events, the Zendikar fetch lands had fallen into a price range of 1.8 to 3.25 tix. This was the market speaking loud and clear. These were very attractive prices and almost identical to the bottom they had set at the end of October 2011 when they had just rotated out of Standard. Applying the knowledge that this price level had previously been a price floor made it an easy decision to start buying, as there was no reason to expect fetch lands to fall further based on historical prices.

Scalding Tarn is the most played and typically the highest priced of the Zendikar fetch lands. It saw prices of 4 to 7 tix during the most recent Modern PTQ season. Although the next season was 6+ months away, there was no reason to expect these prices to stick around.

The assumption that prices should remain relatively stable in the off season is not a well founded one. In this instance it was important to listen to what the market was saying and not worry about how the dip in price fits into a theory of when to buy and sell. The market was screaming ‘Big Sale on Scalding Tarn!’. Expecting that sale to return at a more convenient or theoretically pleasing time is foolish.

Those sale prices rapidly disappeared as players twigged on and started buying, pushing prices back up. Once prices started to move, they moved quickly, even reaching the price peak from the previous season. In this case, the market had completely reversed directions in a short period of time.

Now the market was saying ‘Desperate for Scalding Tarn! Willing to Over Pay!’.What is the sense of Scalding Tarn having a mid season price, when the start of the next season is half a year away? There is no sense. But at times the market is not sensible and it’s best to just follow along with what it wants to do.

What Is The Market Saying Today?

Rotation is nearing and the prices on the mythics from Scars block are generally bottoming out. If a mythic is used to some degree in Standard, it's price bottom will probably occur after rotation, but for other mythics the price bottom appears to be more unpredictable.

One of my past articles outlines how to profit on mythics that are rotating out of Standard, featuring some examples from last Fall, which observes that buying any old junk mythic will not necessarily yield a profit. In order to improve the odds of success, focus on sets with shorter print runs and sets with both casual appeal and Eternal staples. These are the easiest ways to distinguish where one should park their tix.

New Phyrexia fits the bill in this case, as it is the 3rd set of the block and the presence of Eternal staples such as Elesh-Norn, Grand Cenobite, Batterskull, and Birthing Pod suggest the set will hold good value for redeemers post Standard rotation. Picking up the cheaper Praetors is a good way to make a play on this. They are big, powerful monsters, which gives them casual appeal.

All these factors line up to suggest a steadily rising price for Jin-Gitaxias, Sheoldred, Urabrask and Vorinclex over the coming year. Buying at the price bottom ensures a very low level of risk with good upside.

Bonfire of the Damned has been taking a breather in the 38-40 tix range after it shot up to 43-45 tix in recent weeks. There's no indication that sentiment or supply has meaningfully changed for this card. With Standard being in a lull right now, Bonfire is set to run to 50 tix once October hits. Try to pick off copies for 37 or 38 tix on the classifieds by scanning for players selling their lone copies or posting a buy ad.

Taking a position in this card at such an elevated price level is somewhat risky so speculators with only a small amount of capital or low tolerance to risk should look elsewhere.

Checking in on the calls from this article, Breeding Pool has steadily found strength, indicating that the opportunity for easy profits on this card have passed for the moment. It's a similar story for Sulfur Falls and Woodland Cemetery as they, like all the Innistrad duals, have risen in price lately.

On the other hand, both Stomping Ground and Godless Shrine have fallen in price and are now in the 9 to 10 tix range. Keep your eyes on these over the next two months. If they creep down into the 7 to 9 tix range, those are good prices and both will yield profits leading up to the Modern PTQ season.

October of last year was a good time to buy into these two lands and that might be the same case this year.

These speculative ideas all hinge on seasonality, i.e. cards move in and out of favor based on what the player base is currently interested in playing.

This model should be the backbone of any serious strategy for speculating on MTGO. But in order to make the most of this simple model, one must listen to the market and be willing to shift course. Don't blindly follow any model until you have a sense of the market and experience in how it moves.

Matthew Lewis

Matt Lewis currently lives in Ottawa, Canada and is a long time player and PTQ grinder who now speculates and plays exclusively on MTGO. He's always ready to discuss ideas and investment strategies, so drop him a line in the comments, the forums or on modo, username mattlewis.

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Insider: Across the Atlantic – Online Shopping

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Last time I covered how Europe operates in the world of Magic. I want to thank everyone who gave me feedback, as I really appreciate the discussion we had.

This week I am going to cover something I have recently started doing. I talked very briefly about buying most of the small sites inventory in my last article, and now I want to highlight what my methodology is and how I invest my capital in these cards to grind a profit.

Searching

The first step to find these small shops is using search engines. Most of these internet retail shops are not SEO optimized. I mostly go beyond Google, utilizing other search engines, local language search engines and sometimes browse through forums where people can advertise their marketplace.

When you find some websites, be extremely careful to ensure that they are still active. It is handy to call them or send them an email before you transfer any funds via PayPal or bank wire, as as it is extremely hard to find the owner if you can't contact them. If they update their website by adding new sets every month, you should be good. I mostly do this check after I have found out if it is worth my time picking up cards from the shop.

Let's imagine we found a website where we've browsed through some sets and found some underpriced cards. For quick reference, I look at the Zendikar, Mirrodin and Innistrad block cards to find out if anything is severly underpriced or overpriced, where overpriced is something like Skaab Ruinator or Temporal Mastery, which tells me that the owner is not fully up to date on today's market prices.

I use two monitors for this because it is easier to have the shop's website on one screen and buylists of several other sites on the other, including a spreadsheet where I write the cards down I want to purchase. For your convenience, if you click on the screenshot below, you will be redirected to Google Docs of a template you can use for your own ''online shopping spree'':

I think the template is relatively easy to use. Enter the cardname, set, the shop's selling price and quantity there.

I think the most critical thing about the spreadsheet is the usage column where I write down why I want to buy this card. Is it for direct resell profit? For speculation? Or does it happen to fit in my deckbuilding plans? I also include some sort of eBay / MagicCardMarket average in the Usage column, as I get a general idea where I can sell the specific card on.

I also write down the buylist price and the trade price as I typically want to cash the cards in, which I will write a paragraph about it later on.

Grinding

So as soon as I am ready to delve through the retail shops list, I browse through all the sets to find the underpriced cards that I can flip profitably. I mostly recommend doing this between other projects, as it can be very dull but the first few times. I learned what sets are worth looking at with many high value cards, and which others are worth skipping over. I think it takes a lot of practice to memorize cards at buylist and trade value so I took this opportunity to learn it by heart.

When my list is complete, I typically email or phone the owner to see if any discount is available because I am interested in x cards with a total of at least 3 digits. Surprisingly, most of them comply, increasing your profits even more. I generally get between 10-20% discount on singles and sealed products.

Furthermore, it confirms that the shop owner is still active and running.

Assessing

As soon as I have found cards I consider worth buying, worth the currency risk and shipping cost, I make an assessment around how to make profit out of my purchase. I formulate this around the sense of when to trade or when to sell, where do I sell my cards to, what cards will I keep for speculation? This is certainly the hardest thing for me to do as I have encountered some pitfalls, which will be highlighted later on.

Risk & Opportunities

Certainly there are pitfalls regarding an ''online shopcrawl''.

I encountered one this summer, as buylists update themselves due to other customers selling cards to the vendors. If your spread between buying and reselling a card is minimal, we risk being anywhere from marginally up to selling at a loss.

I believe it also has to do with the seasons, as we are now in the holiday summer season in Europe where people are mostly outside (rightfully so at 30-35 degrees Celsius / 86 Fahrenheit !), so demand seasonally drops. I already saw it with Standard staples like Snapcaster Mage, going from 15 to 10 in many buylists.

The Standard PTQ season and World Magic Cup are over, and everyone is going to enjoy the spoiler season of RtR. This leads me to foresee a slight decrease in demand.

Another pitfall can occur if one is timid with buying. Sometimes the prices unexpectedly go up because the store owner had just updated his/her pricing. The item may also be bought out by other customers, diminishing profitability.

When To Move

An important point of discussion is when to move your cards, which I feel largly depends on your community.

If you have a lot of trading activity in your LGS, then it is certainly fine to put the acquired cards in your binder and see if you can trade  up for value. If you need the cash, then your priority often lies in selling it as soon as possible for a profit.

Personally, I put the cards in my binder for around 1.5 - 2 weeks, both online and offline, then proceed to sell the rest off. Just like poker, there is no clear cut walkthrough as there are many different variables. Writing about different strategies could take me an entire article, although I am happy to give you my advice at all times!

I recommend you to read Corbin Hosler's formidable article about the Myths of Making Profit, since it comes down whether putting extra effort in uptrading your cards is worth it versus direct reselling to vendors/players. It can help you in making a better assessment on whether to keep the cards for trading or to sell them directly on marketplaces or to players and retail sites.

I was surprised from the shopcrawls that certain cards have a high or low ratio of buylist/trade value, meaning some cards are easier to move than others. Becoming familiar with card prices makes you more comfortable and confident in your trading, creating a big edge in trading with almost everyone.

You also become acquainted with the online store owner who might give you future discounts and free goodies, as well as price spotting store price trends. I know a few that have underpriced Standard stock, indicating they may be underpricing upcoming RtR stock as well.

Another topic: trades!

I am looking to post some remarkable trades I made online and offline with my thoughts on each. This is not a section where I want to brag, but I am mostly looking for a discussion around finding out if something was wrong so we can all benefit from the dialogue.

Trade #1

I gave: 1x Cathedral of War 3.5  , 1x Scavenging Ooze 35 , 2x Thalia, Guardian of Thraben 5.5, Spell Pierce 1.
Total 50.5 euro or $62

I received: 1x Bonfire of the Damned 29 , Splinter Twin 4.8,  Master of Etherium 3.95 , Ancient Ziggurat 1.8, Necropotence 3.95 , Tradewind Rider 3.5 , Silverblade Paladin BaB Promo 4.5
Total:  51.5 or $63.5

Rationale: We rated Nedermagic.com retail prices, which put me in a bit of a disadvantage, since the market low price of Scavenging Ooze is around 30 euro. There was a big discussion about Bonfire of the Damned and if/when the bubble will burst.

My Scavenging Ooze got the attention of lowballing traders, but other than that it was just sitting there for 5 months from back when I bought a used Commander deck for 30 euro. Furthermore, I also own 2 sealed Counterpunch Commander decks, so I can crack them for 2 Oozes when I need them. I also bought the Thalia at 3 from my online shopcrawl as well as the Spell Pierces for 20 cents.

I already have 5 Bonfires butm from my observation, the demand is overwhelming on all websites I operate on. It was sad it changed from 25 to 29 during my negotiations, but I felt it was still good enough. The Splinter Twin and Master of Etherium are cards I wanted to pick up for my Modern deck, and they are pretty overpriced here. Necropotence and Ancient Ziggurat are cards for my EDH deck and have a stable value rating. The Tradewind Rider is a card I picked  up only because of its buylist value. The Silverblade Paladin is rated 10 on other sites, so picking it up for 4.5 seems nice.

So doing this trade for me was simply trading away a Legacy staple that had not moved well in my binder (and features some 'reprint' risk) for Bonfire and Modern staples.

Which side do you prefer to be on?

~

If there is anything you would like me to write about here in Europe or in general, please do not hesitate to mention it in the comments section or on Twitter (@gervinho_)

Thank you for reading and I am welcome any comment!

- Gervaise ''Gerv''

Insider: 10 Collection Gems You Didn’t Know Were Valuable

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When I wrote about the Dead Zone in Magic finance, one of the things I suggested doing to pass the time was to go through your collection, as well as any you might pick up. Going through my own stuff, which I last picked a few years ago, I found plenty of gems worth pulling out to sell.

It got even better when a friend came into a collection that he gave to me to sell. He was happy taking all the money from the rares; and I was even more happy to take all the money from the commons and uncommons I could pick. It went very well for me, and I found a bunch of textless spells on top of goodies like Cursecatchers and Imperious Perfects.

But how much mileage you get out of any collection goes only so far as your ability to pick. Time is money, and if you have to spend hours upon hours of looking up card prices, chances are you’re not spending your time very efficiently. On the other hand, if you’re able to quickly pick a collection and pull out all the cards that buylist for a quarter or more, you’re going to do very well.

A lot of the money I make off any given collection comes from picking the commons and uncommons that people usually forget about. Last week there was a request for me to cover some of these cards, so this week I wanted to point out some of the best gems you’ll find in collections.

My Brainstorm Brewery podcast co-host Ryan Bushard covered the Standard picklist extensively here, so I won’t touch on Standard sets. I do think he went a little overboard on the list, as you end up pulling out a lot of stuff like Mulch that most dealers won’t want, but it’s a very good starting point.

I’m going to keep it to sets within the last five years because, in my experience at least, that’s most often what I get when I buy.

10. Elvish Promenade

Lorwyn block is insane for picking. Basic rules. Pull all the Elves you can find, and a lot of the Goblins and Merfolk as well. Imperious Perfect is obvious the nut high, but Promenade headlines a host of other cards worth picking.

Other things to be on the lookout for include any Harbinger in the set, and things like Knight of Meadowgrain and Jagged-Scar Archers. I love picking cards from this era.

9. Manamorphose

This innocuous common is absurdly expensive for what it is, and these are usually $.50 to a dollar from dealers. You will easily pull dozens of these from a reasonably-sized collection, and they add up extremely quickly.

8. Ponder; Preordain; Serum Visions

These are the big 3 of the last few years, but you’re pretty safe grabbing any playable Blue cantrip. Sleight of Hand is another good one. These are usually a quarter on buylists, and it’s another group of cards you find literally dozens of when you’re sorting.

7. Beseech the Queen

This card is a tutor. Therefore, it is played in EDH and worth money as a result. You can get a dollar apiece on these from a good dealer, and it’s a card I see even practiced players skim over when they’re evaluating cards.

6. Faerie Macabre; Relic of Progenitus

To these you can add just about any Eternal-playable hate card. They aren’t anything super special, but they do add up very fast. Relics in particular I see a ton of in collections, and I love pulling them out. Even with a reprinting in a Planechase product, you can get $.50 apiece on these from dealers.

5. Oblivion Ring

Pull out every O-Ring you find. Despite being reprinted a million times, it’s worth the trouble to pull it out of every set it’s been in, because dealers still give real money for these.

4. Blightning

Fringe Modern-playable, but still worth a quarter to dealers. This one is somewhat surprising, since it screams bulk outside of a Standard context these days. But it’s a common and worth a quarter, which means you’re likely to find $5-10 in Blightnings alone in a typical collection from this era.

3. Mind Funeral

I assume most people know this one, but I’ll mention it anyway. This card retails for $4+ and is a beautiful find in collections. But remember not to stop at Mind Funerals. Memory Sluice is a pick. Drowner of Secrets is sometimes even a pick. Just pull out all the Mill cards and check them later, it’s always worth your time.

2. Vampire Nighthawk

This is an odd one. It’s been reprinted a ton, and the M13 version isn’t worth picking at the moment for shipping to dealers, though you should probably just binder it. The Zendikar version, however, is worth 50 cents to dealers. I came across 10 of these while picking my own old boxes a few weeks ago, which was a nice surprise since I would have figured I’d have bindered them back in the day.

1. Nonbasic Lands

Seriously, grab every one you can. The tri-lands from Alara are worth $.50 apiece. The Refuges from Zendikar are worth quarters. Stuff like Ancient Ziggurat are 50 cents. Basically every non-basic land you can find will be worth money, so just grab them all and check it out later.

 

There you go. As I’ve said before, making the most out of collections isn’t always about getting flashy rares or scoring sweet discounts on Duals. It’s about finding value in the areas where only you can. The seller can look up something like a Jace, the Mind Sculptor. What they won’t do is look up thousands of commons and uncommons.

You, on the other hand, can sort through these in a matter of a few hours and pull out hundreds of dollars in cash. This is where I make the most money on collections I pick up, and the more practice you get at it the faster it will go. Your hourly rate on flipping the collection will go up, and so forth.

Reading about a bunch of cards worth a quarter or two isn’t the most exciting thing in the world, but training your mind to spot these cards while picking will significantly increase the profits you earn. At times it may seem like there are simply too many cards to remember to pick, but that’s why I find lists like this one helpful. You may not be able to remember hundreds of cards to pick all once, but you can remember 10-15 at a time until they become engrained in your mind. And it only gets easier, and more profitable, from there.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Just Play RUG Delver

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I was recently inspired by a Cedric Phillips rant to try playing Storm in Legacy. I think that Cedric was really spot on with his evaluation of the current state of Legacy, and I agree that Storm is currently well positioned. I especially agree with his disdain for decks like Maverick, which plays the least playable basic land ever printed.

I borrowed Forrest Ryan’s copy of the GP Ghent list and took it to a few smaller Legacy tournaments. I found the deck to be both fun and challenging, and I was really enjoying playing it. I had to follow a lot of interesting lines and plan my kill turn a few turns in advance, which I found pretty enjoyable. My favorite play that I’ve made with the deck by far was Burning Wishing for a Gitaxian Probe that I boarded out to go off for exactly 20 the following turn.

But the fun stopped during the fourth round of the Legacy event I played last Thursday.

When my opponent sat down across from me I wasn’t convinced that he know where he was. He shuffled slowly, tanked on simple decisions and was playing double-sleeved despite not having any foils in his deck.

He was playing RUG Delver, which is one of the primary matchups that I wanted to play more on the Storm side. In game one he played a turn one Delver on the play, amateurly Brainstormed to flip it on turn one, and easily killed me before I could find the discard spells necessary to go off.

He continued to play a turn one Delver and Brainstorm to flip it on turn two every game in our match. This is actually the only reason there even was a game three, as his premature Brainstorm in game two made my discard spells MUCH stronger.

Even though he lost that game, his Brainstorm in game three was considerably worse. He had a Trop in play, Brainstormed on upkeep, revealed Force of Will (thanks for the info, bud), then didn’t have a land to play.

He showed me he had disruption, threw away his only way of hiding it, and Brainstorm locked himself off of lands all on turn one.

And he still won very easily.

The moral of the story, kids, is that everybody should just play RUG Delver. It doesn’t matter if you’re incompetent. It doesn’t even matter if you’re missing the dual lands - just buy them before an event and you’ll win back the money very easily. The deck is just insane.

Now, you might be thinking that playing RUG makes you a dog to the decks that I was trying to beat by playing Storm, but I would disagree with you.

The Maverick matchup isn’t nearly as bad for RUG as people seem to think it is if you know how to play it. I’m the type of guy that will always pack 4 Stifle, so Maverick is easier for me than those who don’t (Maverick is literally a pile of activated abilities). But even without it the matchup is fine.

If you’re really worried about it, pack a Dismember in the main and max out on Submerges in the sideboard. With this much removal you should really only be losing if you fail to recognize which creatures of theirs are important. If that’s your problem, then I’ll give you a hint - Mother of Runes, Knight of the Reliquary and Scavenging Ooze.

Thalia can be annoying if you’re choked on mana, but you’ll frequently be able to get it with your Forked Bolt or Fire/Ice. Also, Sulfur Elemental out of the board does wonders against it and Mom.

I’ve noticed that a lot of Maverick players have been adopting Cavern of Souls, which I feel is laughable. If they want to beat RUG, which is one of very few decks that actually cares about countering their creatures, they should just be fetching basics so that they can’t get Wastelanded to death. Cavern is unreal good in Standard, but a deck like Maverick should be much more worried about removal spells and Wastelands than the Dazes that they can easily play around.

Seriously, just play the matchup a few times. Don’t do stupid things like blow your only removal spell on a Noble Hierarch or Wasteland them when you’re behind. You should be golden.

In addition to being favored against Maverick, RUG clearly has an advantage against most combo decks. Sometimes they can just draw more disruption than you, but for the most part you are very capable of fighting them. To be entirely honest, there are only two decks that I’m worried about while playing RUG:

Merfolks

You have Islands. Fish hate Islands. Fish kill you dead.

Unlike Maverick, pretty much every creature out of Merfolk matters. You want to jam as much removal as possible if you want to realistically beat this matchup. Personally I’ve been packing three Red Elemental Blasts on my board and have had two Dismember in my 75 as of late.

Of course, Merfolk is by and large being hated out by everybody else as is. Even still, the REBs have a pretty low opportunity cost as they are good against many flavors of combo and the mirror as well.

The other matchup that concerns me tends to have less overlap with the rest of Legacy…

Death and Taxes

Before I begin this section, I will make it clear that D&T is not a real deck. Anybody playing it is blatantly disrespecting the Legacy format at large, and this is the exact reason that it can be such a tough matchup for RUG.

With a manabase of mono-Plains and a playset of Aether Vial, D&T can make a joke out of counterspells and Wastelands. Jotun Grunt and it’s gigantic backside couples with its ability to hose Tarmogoyf and Nimble Mongoose are also quite problematic.

The one advantage that RUG has in this matchup is that D&T relies on the activated/triggered abilities of Mother of Runes, Mangara of Corondor and Aether Vial. Stifle really shines against decks like this.

If you’re not playing Stifle… Well, good luck. The one thing you can do is have Sulfur Elemental on board. It might look like a wasted slot, but it’s also good against Maverick and is worth boarding in against certain combo decks where tapping out for Tarmogoyf can be a huge liability.

Like I said, though, D&T is not a real deck, so you shouldn’t have to play against it. But lord knows that I always find a way to play against the only guy in the room playing it.

~

While I think that I have grown some as a player simply by picking up Storm for a spell, I just can’t bring myself to not play RUG in any event where it matters. It can be tuned to beat basically any metagame and its bad matchups are few and far between.

If you take the time to actually learn how to play the deck and Brainstorm well, like so few other players have done, then you will see great success with the deck. This I promise you.

Good luck, high five.

-Ryan Overturf

Insider: Izzet True?

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Well, over the weekend, we’ve gotten a full spoiler of the Izzet vs Golgari Duel Decks. What a great way to kick off the excitement into the new block. I’ve been pretty excited for Return to Ravnica already, but after seeing some hot new spoilers, I’m chomping at the bit. As most of you have hopefully seen, Sigmund has created an awesome spoiler update page, that is constantly updated with any new RTR spoilers, so bookmark it!

This week we saw a few cards, but the most exciting one to me is Izzet Charm. This card is exactly what the Izzet mage wants. It’s cheap, it’s a counterspell, it’s removal, it’s card selection. This card is versatile enough that I envision a variety of strategies arising that can employ this card in Standard.

Izzet in Standard

Considering this card is both a counter and burn, it quickly makes the cut in any counter-burn strategy. Faithless looting at 2 mana isn’t exciting, but as an instant it’s much stronger, especially given the flexibility you have when you cast it. I could see this in an aggro-control U/R Delver build, as well as a longer game U/R/x control build. In either case, it provides cheap answers to protect threats or to deal with them after they hit the board. This is all I needed to see to know that [card Snapcaster Mage]Snapcaster[/card] will have a home post rotation and I’m going to rebuy my set. As we looked at a couple weeks ago, some of the Izzet cards I still recommend targeting are Sulfur Falls and Desperate Ravings. Patrick Chapin broke Desperate Ravings early in a Grixis control deck, but control really hasn’t been around since then.

I expect it to come back in an Izzet variety, and this uncommon has already disappeared from view. These can be found well under $1/set and $4-5/set for foils. This is something that could be a big winner, even dumping them to dealers, as I could see this hitting $0.25 buy list pretty easily. It’s a card that has an extremely powerful effect, and flashing it back is some of the most insane value there is (if you’re into that sort of thing). The longer shot part of this call is [card Tibalt the Fiend-blooded]Tibalt[/card]. Tibalt has a very unique set of abilities, that would actually have synergy with a U/R control deck. Given there’s enough redundancy and Flashback in your deck, the random discard on both of these spells is not a big deal. His Stormseeker ability is a absolute beating against control and his ultimate is so scary against aggro they’ll be trying to kill your Tibalt instead of your life. He’s cheap enough now (<$3) that I don’t expect him to drop any further and find him to be a minimal risk even if it is a long shot to succeed. Golgari has also shown us a spicy new 3/3 haste for 3 mana. This guy is aggressively costed and is enough reason to start thinking about G/B aggro, or some variety there of like Jund or Junk. Not to mention he’s got the new Scavenge ability which lets him pump your other dudes from your graveyard. I’m not totally sold on this mechanic or guild yet, but my eyes are fixed, and I’m still looking to pick up Woodland Cemetary whenever the price is right.

Legacy News

In other news, Omniscience is tearing up Legacy and everyone’s hot spec target is Academy Rector. Talk to your EDH friends, find out who’s got them for trade and get ‘em. They’re already sold out everywhere. My Legacy insiders all are ranting about going deep on it, and I can’t disagree with their rationale. A card that’s already an EDH favorite that might suddenly become a 4x in the most popular combo deck in Legacy? Get them if you can. I do recommend a swift sale on any profit you’re comfortable with, as this is something that the metagame will correct if it truly becomes a big deck. If you have any sitting in an EDH deck somewhere, I’d ship them out via EBay and replace them at a later date.

EBay Misspellings

Lastly, I wanted to give everyone a reminder to check misspellings on EBay. I’ve written about this a couple times, but sometimes a refresher is in need. Last week I posted one I found on twitter for two “Duel” lands, and one of my followers bid, and had no competition. Ask @punk43rckr about it if you don’t believe me. Since then, I’ve discovered a site that specifically will check for commonly misspelled listings on EBay. So if it was too hard for you to come up with your own misspellings, try this site! www.typobay.com Pretty easy to use, and will be a serious time saver if you check on these misspellings (and you should!).

This week I’ve got 3 things on my agenda. Pick up Tibalt, Desperate Ravings and ask around for Academy Rectors from EDH folk. I’m continuing to hunt for Innistrad Duels that match the upcoming Ravnica Guilds, and scouring EBay for deals (misspelled or not). Happy hunting this week!

Jason’s Archives: eBay Wackiness, Maro gets Presidential and the Beatdown in Bean Town

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Greetings, Speculators!

If you follow the Twitter stream you are usually a day (or three) ahead of the pace at which podcasts and articles can keep you apprised of things. Following Helene Bergeot, Aaron Forsythe and Maro seems like a no-brainer if you want to have your finger firmly on the pulse of the game's future developments and you can usually contribute to informal polling that they do with those accounts. Following Brian David Marshall and Rich Hagon is valuable if you're interested in coverage of major events. It's better to know things about events while those events are still going on; waiting until Monday isn't always the best way to stay plugged in.

Helene Bergeot recently brought the following link to everyone's attention: Outcome of the WTGWC Shuffling Investigation. If you read the mothership religiously, you saw it already, but I prefer to have others sift through that information for me. Maybe that's why I like reddit.com so much.

Here's the gist of the article: the incident I highlighted last week in my Gen Con wrapup was investigated and there will be no further disciplinary action taken.

This came as somewhat of a surprise, especially in light of the excellent analysis by Tom Martell that makes Iramain look quite guilty. Intent is difficult to prove when it's disguised as sloppiness. Also, his opponent always did his due diligence and cut/shuffled his deck when it was presented to him. Shuffling your opponent's deck doesn't mean you don't trust them, it should be a reflex action that you do every time.

If you follow Maro, you will know what a prolific contributor of content he is. He reminded his Twitter followers this weekend that he'd published his annual "State of Design Address. He also included links to past years' addresses. It's a lot of reading, but it's all interesting stuff and well worth the read.

What Manner of Silliness Can One Find on eBay?

Well, I'm glad you asked, rhetorical device. Bored out of my mind and needing a break from the drudgery of listing items for sale in my eBay store, I occasionally type random phrases into the eBay search engine to see what pops up. Occasionally this can lead to great deals ("[card Jace, the Mind Sculptor]Jace the Mind Sculpter[/card]" is a favorite of mine. Three hours left and zero bids, eh? Wonder why.) and occasionally it can lead to big lols.

I was waiting until I had enough of these gems and today is your lucky day.

Whispers of the Amusing

My decision to publish this collection of hilarity was inspired by Quiet Speculation's own Doug Linn who e-mailed me this hilarious eBay auction he encountered.

Brought to you by the writer of Hoarders and the producer of Pawn Stars.

I wasn't aware I had literally 12 dollars of hidden value just sitting in a pile in my basement waiting to be discovered. I bet I can get $5 for the 200 empty Betrayers of Kamigawa precon boxes I have littering up the joint. Rat's Nest truly is the gift that keeps on giving.



 

I thought it was a joke until I saw how many were sold.

In case of avid QS readers forming an angry mob to drive to Rhode Island and teach this seller a lesson, I opted not to include too much seller info. The going rate for basics is about $2/1000 lands. To see them sold for this much money kind of offends my MTG finance sensibilities. I guess it doesn't hurt to see if I can't sell 200 basics for 10 bucks in my store. I hear that's a huge savings. They go for $12 per 200 on eBay I heard.



 

... And that's enough internet for today.

I think it's telling that the seller's name isn't "MTGSuperfan." This fake alter onto a basic swamp is the kind of monstrosity only a fan of the Japanimation could love (do you kids still call it that nowadays? I'm so behind the times.) I must commend the talent of the alterist here, though. It takes a lot of skill with Photoshop to make a pair of breasts that big look unappealing. My hat is off.



 

Used sleeves? Few things are less appealing.

If that last one didn't make you feel dirty all over, maybe this one will. Someone else's fingerprint grime for free! Talk about value!

This just goes to show if it says "Magic: the Gathering" on it, someone will buy it. No matter how.... used it is.

Enough Awful for One Day. Tell Me about the Toinaments.

Soitenly.

This weekend, there were some tournaments.

Now Tell Me of their Significance

They were significant.

A Bunch of Virgins Join the Mile High Club

Denver was home to the Star City Games Open this weekend.

Top X Standard Decks

I guess it's the Top 24? It's never clear why the deck in 131st is reported and the deck in 19th isn't.

Winner Michael Lee is a fellow redditor, posting a victory snap on the site today. Congrats, Michael.

G/W Aggro seemed like an odd choice as the list doesn't look terribly powerful at a glance. But its speed and synergy became readily apparent to onlookers as this deck ran an ugly gauntlet of U/W Delver and a surprising amount of Mono-Green Infect to take top honors. [card Melira, Sylvok Outcast]Melira[/card] out of the board shows Lee was prepared for such a contingency.

Also worth noting was a favorite deck of mine, Black Market, piloted by Matthew Pitzer who did so well with the deck that he finished both 8th and 16th.

Better than winning an online PTQ between rounds.

I collected as many Trading Posts as I could at Gen Con. This card, especially in foil, has nowhere to go but up. Forecasting what a Standard without Black Sun's Zenith will look like, Pitzer jammed four Mutilate. But will a Standard without Pristine Talisman be as good for this deck? Only time will tell. With most of the relevant artifacts set to rotate, the clock may be ticking on this archetype.

Also notably not U/W Delver was Wolf Run White, a Naya-colored ramp deck that doesn't have any trouble hardcasting that [card Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite]Elesh Norn[/card]. What do we say to graveyard hate? Not today!

Three Top 32 B/R Zombies decks to zero U/B Zombies deck make the picture increasingly clear that the best zombies in the block are actually vampires.

Great job, competitors!

Top X Legacy Decks

Jamming a Moat (not Humility?) into U/W Control, Joe Lossett decided Legacy should look more like Standard and trounced the competition, spreading the Azorius menace to another format.

Could Joe actually be running Portent instead of Ponder? It looks that way, as Portent is being tested as a way to ruin the meticulous plans of a competitor attempting to stack their own library. Whether thwarting their miracles, shuffling away a Sensei's Divining Top or ordering your own library following a disappointing Brainstorm, Portent actually has a lot of utility, and is a cantrip to boot. It's not just a bad Ponder, folks, this card has legs. I hope to see this tech adopted.

Eight different decks in the Top 8? That's a welcome sight. The format continues to be anyone's game and most matches come down to skill and preparation, making it arguably the healthiest constructed format in the game.

Omniscience continues to impact the meta as Omni-Tell variants outperform their non-all-knowing counterparts. Impervious to Karakas and Gilded Drake, this build is the gold standard for "unfair" decks in Legacy right now.

Grab those Omnisciences, folks! Dealers tried to give me $2 on them all weekend which meant people were selling them at $2 which means not everyone has caught on. If you can get these under $5 in a trade, you'd be silly not to. Let everyone else fight over Thundermaw Hellkite and Liliana of the Dark Realms, the real value in this set is still under everyone's radar.

The GP in Boston-Woostah (That's how they pronounce it, don't look at me) was Limited. Michigan's local hero and Grizzly Adams lookalike contest winner Brain Demars smoked the competition to take down his first GP win, proving he's not just a Vintage guy. The decklists are on the Mothership if you are into that sort of thing.

I Take My Leave of You and Your Faces

If you learn nothing from my articles, retain the most salient elements. There is money to be made from M13, but not where everyone thinks there is; the market is roughly a month behind the Legacy metagame as Humility can still be scooped for $6-$8 in trades and people are willing to come off of Omniscience for $2 cash; and, most importantly, 90 rulebooks are worth more than nothing. So much more.

Take care of yourselves.

Jason Alt
@JasonEAlt on Twitter

Insider: Vintage & Legacy Markets, Overmaster and More Crazy Picks

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We've got a lot to go over this week! First, I want to talk to you about quirks of the collector market in Legacy and Vintage. I'll also touch on a pop-up card and some out-there picks in anticipation of Return to Ravnica.

But first, have you seen Izzet Charm?

I love Charms a lot and it's nice to see their power level going up. Let's hope that this is emblematic of the other charms, too. This is imminently playable and intuitive to everyone how awesome it is. It's got three, near-universally useful abilities that will change in power over the course of the game. With nine more guilds to look at over the next few months, I'm sure we'll see two or three stand-out Charms. I am particularly excited about the enemy-colored charms in Orzhov (B/W) and Simic (U/G) on account of those color combinations being weird and sometimes very powerful.

Vintage and Legacy Collectors Are Really, Really Picky

When it comes to staples like Force of Will, dual lands and fetchlands, Eternal magic players are pretty generous. Played and beat staples like these are still currency, since so many people want them but don't care about the condition very much (myself included). However, there are a few instances where condition matters a lot.

Foreign languages: I have seen many a trader overvalue their Japanese non-foil cards, sometimes still at two or three times the value of the English counterpart. I've seen people think that $19 is fair for a Flooded Grove that looks like a sushi menu. The thing is, with the huge stocks in online stores and the push for foreign languages in the market, cards in different languages don't really command a premium any more. I've noticed this on big retailers like SCG and Cape Fear Games. CFG, in particular, tends to have Japanese versions of cards for the same value, sometimes only a penny or two more. So when you get those Japanese Lodestone Golems, don't get too excited that some Vintage player is going to pop out of his Workshop for a moment to pay you $20s on those things.

HOWEVER-

Foil versions of Japanese cards are still hot stuff. You know this. English foil versions are sometimes slightly less hot stuff (foil Spell Snare is still $40) but sometimes they are just blanks (foil Phyrexian Revoker is a glum $3). Don't trade for foils based on them being Vintage cards unless you are sure of what they run!

Let's shift to Magic's debut for a moment. Chas Andres did an excellent rundown on SCG awhile back that exhaustively looked at the Beta market. If you're looking at getting into it or have a lot of Beta cards to get rid of, the cost of their subscription is worth it for that article alone! To summarize one of Chas' big points: condition matters. Condition is nearly everything. If your card is more Beat than Beta, there's no market for it. This means cards like Purelace should be Mint (and if they are, they're worth $10) or else they'll poison your binder for years and years. Now when you're looking at Beta dual lands, it's a different story, but most Beta cards are valuable to people who are collecting Beta. The condition of their Scryb Sprites matters to them, not the card's playability.

Overmaster

Overmaster has been heating up recently, thanks to three copies appearing in the winning Sneak & Show list from GenCon's Legacy Championships. We've been discussing this card on the QS Forum for several weeks and the reaction to the card among posters is mostly tepid. The card has gone from five pennies to about a dollar at this point, so it's worth a bit more. People report that they're selling briskly on Ebay, but with such small actual-dollar margins to be made, I don't know that this is one that I'd pursue very much. Even worse, trading these away has been miserable.

Overmaster is clever, I'll give you that. It's not blue though, which is a major strike against it and a reason why I'd consider something like Spell Pierce over it. You're not going to use it to beat Counterbalance anyway (stop your Overmaster with C-Bal), so you might as well use a more proactive card instead. However, foil versions have been getting a few bites. This tells me that the always-reliable Legacy deck pimps want their Overmasters to be reflective and are paying for them. Again, I'm not big on this card at all, but it's worth looking for in boxes of foil rares if you have them around.

Crazy Picks from Recent Sets For RTR

Return to Ravnica is going to be the talk of Magic for the next several months. I'm already prepared for long and insufferable Standard reviews of it. I'm also prepared for a glorious and sprawling, awesome set filled with goodies for everyone. I already want half of the cards spoiled, so they're getting something right.

One of the set mechanics is Populate, which will clone a creature token. The anticipated combo that people are looking forward to is a Populate Dude paired with Cackling Counterpart. Simply play the Populate guy and then Cackle him at the opponent's endstep. It'd be this season's Splinter Twin if a monster with Populate actually comes along. The big question, though, is if we're actually going to see anything that Populates with a suitable mana cost. This is holding people back and this is bad thinking! Cackling Counterpart is really, really cheap. It's fractions of a ticket on MTGO and about a quarter in paper. The upside on hitting with this is great, since you're looking at a card that would be at least $2-3.  The downside is that you've spent $5 on innumerable copies of a card that will probably have some appeal down the road to Commander players. To put it in terms of The System, you're risking only 10 cents on each copy since you can bulk them out for 15 cents. This is not as good as Twin was, but it'll still be good if they print anything that works with it. The time to buy this, if you want in on it, is now and not when we all see that 2W Populate or 1G Populate guy get printed - by then, everyone will know to pick up Counterparts.

I'll give a hat tip to Sylvain Lehoux from the QS Forum for this next one, Blasphemous Act. He correctly pointed out that there's no white sweeper in M13 and this is a cheap card that gets cheaper with tokens. I'm excited about Blasphemous Act; it scales with the Selesnya hordes to make a pretty cheap sweeper. It doesn't compete on the same angles as Bonfire (Bonfire is best when you have mana ramp around) and it is very, very easy to splash into decks. We're going to be Farseeking up a lot of Stomping Grounds, folks. Unlike Mutilate, there's nothing that punishes us for running only one Mountain in our G/U deck to turn on Blasphemous Act. I don't know if it'll outcompete Black Sun's Zenith, but I don't have high hopes for black decks in Ravnica. Dimir and the U/B color combo in general has usually been considered too good in development to actually get good cards. We are going to have to work harder to remove lots of permanents. This means we'll be playing lots of Swamps or maybe paying BB4 to kill an X/4 army. Blasphemous Act is by no means a catch-all, but it gives a lot of sweeping options.

That's the bill for this week! Next week, I'll tackle some more Insider Basics as we wait for RTR to heat up. Until then,

-Doug Linn

Tribes in Commander

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Props if you know what card this is

One of the most exciting parts of Magic is the flavor of all the [card Phelddagrif]interesting monsters[/card].

Whether it's the classic [card Monss goblin raiders]goblin[/card] or the elusive [card floral spuzzem]spuzzem[/card], every creature in the Magic universe has it's place. Some tribes are powerful enough to compete in Legacy, like [card goblin lackey]goblins[/card] or [card Lord of Atlantis]merfolk[/card], while others like [card Diregraf Captain]zombies[/card] or [card Ravenous Baloth]beasts[/card] have been powerful in Standard.

But which tribes are best for Commander? Since we just want to have fun, whatever tribe brings you the most enjoyment will be best for you, but it won't be very interesting if you lose every time!

Why Incorporate a Tribe in a Commander Deck?

Flavor

A sleuth of [card Grizzly Fate]bears[/card] or a clowder of [card White Suns zenith]cats[/card] can be entertaining in its own right, even if the creatures don't interact with one another. I currently have a Toshiro Umezawa deck that takes advantage of many [card Pestilence Demon]demons[/card]. The problem is that there are very [card Blood speaker]few cards[/card] that actually benefit from having many demons in my deck, but it is fun none the less.

Synergy

This is probably the best reason to include a tribe, because certain tribal cards work well together, which we can take even more advantage of by choosing a good Commander. Out of the many Commander decks I've built, one of my favorites was commanded by Horde of Notions. He alone provided enough reason to cram as many sweet elementals into my deck as I could.

Which Tribes Work Best

In other formats, tribal decks can be built using only the best 5-6 tribal cards available, because of the smaller deck size and maximum four copies of a single card. Commander decks don't have this luxury. It's a good idea to search gatherer for every creature of the tribe you are considering. Sometimes a tribe will seem fantastic but you soon find there are very few quality creatures.

Snakes is a good example. There are some sweet snakes, but very few [card Seshiro, the anointed]quality[/card] ones, so it would be difficult to make use of a snake theme. A blue/green snake deck led by Momir Vig, Simic Visionary may be viable though.

Big Threats

Higher costing creatures are usually better in Commander. This lets tribes that are weak in other formats to shine. Elementals, for example, work well because many have 'enters the battlefield' triggers, they span across all five colors, and are usually quite large. Second, Horde of Notions specifically takes advantage of an elemental theme, and lends himself to an awesome five-color elemental reanimator deck.

Another fun idea would be to lead fiery dragons with Zirilan of the Claw or Bladewing the Risen. Very threatening.

Card Advantage -

Another type of tribe that works well are those that can generate card advantage. A great example is wizards, led by Azami, Lady of Scrolls. Wizards have been around since the beginning so there are many to choose from, allowing for many different wizardly themed Commander decks. One caveat is their lack of threats, so be sure to back them up with a few [card Tidal Kraken]krakens[/card] or other juicy blue monsters. Selecting a different commander with [card Ertai, the corrupted]more colors[/card] would be another solution.

A second tribe that generates advantage well is zombies. There are many cards that [card lord of the undead]return zombies[/card] from your graveyard, which keeps the corpses forever marchin'. Using Grimgrin, Corpse-born as the commander opens up endless synergy possibilities.

Which Tribes are Underpowered?

It almost seems like Commander is the opposite of most formats. Powerful strategies in Legacy, for example, are usually bad in Commander, and tribes are no exception. When other formats utilize a tribe they are usually taking advantage of its [card Goblin Piledriver]aggressive[/card] synergies, but this isn't very helpful in Commander.

Cheap and Aggressive

Let's figure out how to win this one

Naturally aggressive tribes should generally be avoided. Forty life, multiple players, and board [card Oblivion Stone]wraths[/card] are all reasons not to play cheap, aggressive creatures in Commander. Having seven goblins in play on turn five may be fun, but a well placed Wrath of God will put you right out of the game.

I've tried playing goblins, and seen many others try as well, but I have yet to see a goblin deck that can win consistently. Goblins are one of the most popular creature types in Magic, probably more numerous than any other creature, but they just don't provide enough advantage or power to stay in the game after a board sweep. There are even several enticing Commander options, Wort, the Raidmother, Wort, Boggart Auntie, and the newly created Krenko, Mob Boss. I really want these decks to be good, but I just haven't figured out how to build them yet.

Another aggressive tribe is elves. These are quite a bit better than goblins because they are primarily green (the best color in Commander) and synergize better. Ramping mana is a very powerful strategy and elves do it well.

Another popular tribe is soldiers, but they are very weak in my opinion. They are white (the worst color in Commander) and don't generate much advantage.

Not Enough Cards

There can be two problems here. One is that there are enough synergy cards, but not enough other creatures to support them. This brings us back to snakes. There are some sweet snakes, but not enough to use as a primary theme or even a sub-theme. The problem arises because the [card Sosukes summons]snakes that synergize[/card] with other snakes require a bunch of them, which makes it hard to take full advantage of these cards.

The other possible problem is that there aren't enough synergy cards. A good example of this would be giants. The are a bunch of [card inferno titan]sweet giants[/card], but very [card Sunrise Sovereign]few cards[/card] that synergize.

Why Commander is awesome

I'm not saying that you shouldn't use goblins, soldiers, merfolk, etc., themes in Commander, but rather that some tribes aren't as powerful as others. Commander is such a versatile format that almost any theme can be executed, if you're willing to support it with other powerful cards or sacrifice power altogether.

An example would be my Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker deck. It runs a minor goblin theme restricted to [card Siege-gang Commander]goblins[/card] that work well with Kiki-Jiki. I have another deck led by Seton, Krosan Protector that uses druids as a primary theme. It isn't as powerful as an elf theme, but I like to be original with my decks.

Some tribes have enough cards to use as the main theme of a deck, while others can only be used as a sub-theme.

Examples of quality primary theme tribes: [card Horde of Notions]elementals[/card], [card Bladewing the Risen]dragons[/card], [card Azami, Lady of Scrolls]wizards[/card], [card Grimgrin, Corpse-born]zombies[/card] and [card Ezuri, Renegade Leader]elves[/card].

Example of quality sub-theme tribes: [card Krenko, Mob boss]goblins[/card], [card Sliver Overlord]slivers[/card] and [card Blood Speaker]demons[/card].

Other tribes that seem viable: [card Lin sivvi, defiant hero]rebels[/card], [card Iname as one]spirits[/card], [card Radiant, archangel]angels[/card], [card Ancestors Prophet]clerics[/card], [card Garza Zol plague queen]vampires[/card], [card Doran, the Siege Tower]treefolk[/card], [card Kangee, Aerie Keeper]birds[/card], [card Nemata, Grove Guardian]saprolings[/card], [card Oona, queen of the fae]faeries[/card] and [card contested cliffs]beasts[/card].

I am a proponent of having as much fan as you can in Commander, but for me to have fun I have to win sometimes. If making a bizarre [card cateran overlord]mercenary[/card] deck is what makes Commander fun for you, then do it, but for me I want my tribe to be able to crush my opponents.

When I create my Commander decks I am always sure to incorporate a major theme and a tribe is always a fun option. Sometimes tribes work well with other themes to create an interesting and dynamic deck. A great example would be [card gravecrawler]zombies[/card] and a [card Grave Pact]death[/card] [card Phyrexian altar]theme[/card]. However you use tribes in your deck (or even if you don't), just make sure you have fun with them.

Insider: Standard Rotation Pick-Ups

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I would like to begin this article with a personal reflection of my experience at GP Boston.

This past Saturday I spent twelve hours on site at GP Boston. After the first five rounds of Limited play I found myself at 5-0 (no byes), at table six out of 636, and seated across Magic World Cup Austria team member Thomas Holzinger.

Boy was I out of my league.

After two consecutive, demoralizing match losses I realized something. My passions and my strengths with regards to the game of Magic are clearly not tournament play. Exhausted and entering round eight I found myself wishing I could be writing this article and sharing my financial stories from GP Boston rather than playing to survive in this major event.

To make a long story short, I won round eight but I had already decided beforehand that I needed to go home. I decided my chances of making day two (let alone cashing out in the tournament) were slim enough that I should drop and return to normalcy at home.

I learned three valuable lessons yesterday – first, that I do have solid skill in the game of Magic and I can be competitive. Second, I treasure my connections with the MTG Finance community far more than I treasure competitive play. And finally, unless I am practically guaranteed a prize I much prefer being with my family than trying to win at a tournament.

Onto the Finance

After a quiet month, I feel like there is finally some financial buzz in Standard. This is likely to ramp up even more once Return to Ravnica spoiler season is underway. When Return to Ravnica is released, there will be a prime opportunity to pick up some Innistrad block cards at optimal prices.

This seems to be a common trend. When a new block is finally introduced, card pools for decks are at their smallest. Therefore, demand ultimately goes up on the previous block’s cards. But this only happens after a short term dip caused by a flooded market and hype the newest set release. Of course, this is right around when the departing block’s cards are cheapest and so it is the optimal time to acquire any Eternal staples you may need from this block.

Scars of Mirrodin Block

There are a handful of cards to consider acquiring soon from Scars block. The first cards that come to mind are the swords. Each of them are near their all time lows, but their playability in EDH and Legacy make them viable pick-ups in the near future (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Two other interesting cards I may look to acquire soon are Karn Liberated and Mox Opal. But while Mox Opal is also near its all time low price, Karn has actually rebounded recently. This is likely due to his recent appearances in Modern. It is impressive how robust Karn’s price has proven to be, but I still believe if you need these for play that the time to acquire them is near.

Finally, there are a few smaller cards worth considering for long term acquisitions. The one I want to highlight here is Green Sun's Zenith – a powerful card maintaining a consistent price tag despite appearing in an Event Deck (chart from blacklotusproject.com). It probably won’t be too difficult to trade fresh Return to Ravnica cards for these Zeniths at around $6, which is nearly equivalent to converting your overpriced RtR cards for cash.

Innistrad Block

This is where things get interesting. This block has some very powerful cards that should prove useful even in the new Standard. While I could spend countless articles highlighting all of them, I’ll choose to focus on the few cards I’m currently eyeing.

First and foremost, and for the millionth time, I am bullish on Innistrad Dual Lands. Everyone knows why. But everyone may not know that as of Saturday, Star City Games only had six SP Clifftop Retreats in stock at $6.49 and zero NM copies at $6.99. They also only have nine NM copies of Hinterland Harbor in stock selling at $6.99. While dealers are still only offering $3 each to buy these cards, I feel their stocks will dry up soon and these will be on the rise.

I have also been recently touting the miracles of Avacyn Restored. While everyone knows Bonfire of the Damned is on the rise, cards like Terminus and Temporal Mastery may deserve a second look (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Terminus hasn’t moved much in price since its release, but the trend this month has been slightly positive. With Day of Judgment rotating and no other board sweeper spoiled yet, this card may see increased play. Its utility in Legacy has also increased my interest in this card.

Temporal Mastery is also near it’s all time low price (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Like Terminus, Temporal Mastery is just starting to see more play in constructed formats. Time will tell on this one, but if you need a set or are interested in speculating on these, the time to acquire them is near.

As for the some of the current Standard staples such as Geist of Saint Traft and Snapcaster Mage, I am still on the fence. These may be powerhouses now, but their utility will have to be proven again come rotation. Now, of course both are seeing solid Modern play and Snapcaster Mage sees Legacy play as well. So their prices do have a floor. But even if these cards do remain strong, they likely hold limited upside (especially Snappy, which is already a $20 rare in Standard).

One last recommendation I can make here requires a slightly larger investment, but with almost no downside – Avacyn Restored booster boxes. These are averaging in the $95 dollar range on eBay and I don’t expect their prices to drop. In fact, the only other stand-alone third set released by Wizards recently, Rise of the Eldrazi, currently averages $150 on eBay for English booster boxes. This represents a potential 50% return.

Given that Avacyn Restored is filled with both casual favorites (Angels galore) and powerful spells (Bonfire of the Damned, Terminus), acquiring a booster box or two of this set seems like a no-lose scenario. And while I can’t guarantee my other recommendations will increase in value, I am 99% sure Avacyn Restored booster boxes will not lose you money if you hold onto them for a couple years. It all depends on your goals and strategies for profiting.

Turning the Page

I picked up a few interesting facts this past weekend when talking with buyers at the dealer booths. None of them are aggressively buying Restoration Angel or Snapcaster Mage. The best offers I got on these were $6 and $12 respectively. When I challenged these offers, I was simply told that they already had many in stock.

Another card that didn’t move well was Overmaster, but I think this card’s time is near. Innistrad Duals only fetched $3 from the dealers, but I did notice many of the dealers lacked stock on at least one of the five. I feel these buy prices are due for a hike in the near future, perhaps a few weeks after Return to Ravnica’s release.

Not surprisingly, there was not much I actually was happy to sell to the dealers this time around. With everyone in a holding pattern in anticipation of Return to Ravnica, dealers are not willing to over commit to some cards. That being said, I still managed to move a few things here and there for solid prices and I am pleased with the outcome.

But the most important learning for me this past weekend was about my own priorities. My passion is still for MTG finance, and while having my one round amongst the pros was an exciting moment for my Magic playing career, I still prefer the convenience and rewards of Magic finance. Speculating on cards requires less time away from my family and is much less tiring. For these reasons, I plan on sticking with MTG finance for years to come.

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