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The announcement of the Pioneer format was a monumental moment for Magic and its market. It suddenly and massively increased the utility and value of huge swaths of cards that had been mostly forgotten; long-gone from Standard but too weak for Modern, the stuff of cubes and Commander decks. Now, these cards are front-and-center of Magic’s newest format, and with widespread competitive support already announced, it’s clearly slated to be the new successor to Modern. The show of demand from the market, players and speculators alike, has been incredible, and cards are spiking by the day.Â
In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, some low-hanging speculative fruit was picked, but with the cardpool so large and the metagame completely unknown, things are really just getting started. Now the format is live on MTGO and actually being played competitively, with a high-profile Challenge this weekend and a PTQ to come the following. Soon we’ll have access to winning decklists, and their proliferation will create the foundation of metagame.
When we actually get our hands on results and see what’s actually winning, the market is going to react accordingly. Fortunately, there are still a lot of opportunities to cash in on the staples of the future. While much of the movements so far have been based on speculation, Magic Online movements paint a better picture of actual demand from players. A look at the top-gainers on MTGO in the past day reveal some deep insight into the metagame and its staples, and in turn the future of the paper market.Â
Starting with the big picture, the biggest Pioneer movers on MTGO have mostly been in line with the biggest and earliest paper movers, with Smuggler's Copter and Dig Through Time on top, and cards like Aetherworks Marvel and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy close behind. That makes sense given the hype, but these cards have already spiked and now is a great time to sell, not buy. What’s most interesting to me are the other top-gainers that haven’t yet spiked in paper. These MTGO increases are likely to be driven more by organic demand, and provide a look at future staples of the format. Â
Hissing Quagmire was the third-biggest gainer on MTGO this week, a staple of all variety of Black-Green decks, including the Winding Constrictor Hardened Scales deck that has emerged as an early and frontrunner. Any format with Thoughtseize is going to have good black-green midrange decks, and Hissing Quagmire will always be a part of that. It can still be had for around $1.50, a bargain rate compared to Celestial Colonnade’s peak over $70.
The fourth-biggest gainer this week was Declaration in Stone. It’s simply white’s best removal spell in the format, where it lacks a good one-mana option like Path to Exile. On the plus side, it’s quite powerful as both an exile effect and for the potential to take multiple cards at once, and it will be an essential part of the toolbox of most white decks in the format just as it was in Standard. Still very readily available for under $1, I have to imagine this card has room to grow with its investigate Clue-making keyword making it less likely for reprint than the average card.
I was surprised to see Jace, Architect of Thought as one of the biggest winners this week, but with Jace, the Mind Sculptor on the sidelines, JAoT is the best Jace in the format, at least of those that don’t have to flip. It was a crucial card-advantage tool in various blue decks in Standard, including control and Blue Devotion, both of which are being played in Pioneer. With applications in all sorts of blue decks, it makes sense why it’s in-demand. However, it has a duel-deck printing and Return to Ravnica was heavily opened, but at under $2 there’s not much to lose on this staple that once demanded $50.
The Dragonlord cycle from Dragons of Tarkir is one of the most powerful but accessible cycle of creatures in Pioneer, and all of them will be playable just like they were in Standard. The standout there was Dragonlord Ojutai, and it threatens to be the control finisher of choice in Pioneer as well. One of the top gainers online this week, it has budged in paper from around $4.50 to $5, and is likely to continue its upward trajectory.
Master of Waves has seen tremendous growth online this week, and it’s being played as the centerpiece of an aggressive Mono-Blue Devotion deck with Tempest Djinn. MPL player Andrea Mengucci streaming the deck has only added to its popularity. Master of Waves also offers some spicy synergy with Risen Reef in a potential Elemental tribal deck, so it has a lot going for it, not to mention its applications for hosing red decks. It’s already showing some growth in paper and has crossed the $2 mark, with a foil Duel deck printing still under $2, and both likely to keep going.
Speaking of red aggro, all variety of decks that try to get the opponent dead ASAP with red cards are being played. Legion Loyalist doesn’t see play in Burn decks, but it’s a great tool for red decks that swarm, potentially even Goblin tribal versions, and it has seen huge growth online. It does have a Guild Kit printing, and both versions are still around $3, but I could see it really taking off as one of red’s premier one-drops without Goblin Guide around. With a couple of spikes in its recent history to over $10, it should have a lot of upside.Â
Plan for Bans
I highly recommend picking up any of the cards I mentioned today if you plan to play with them. Speculation at this stage is certainly still risky, the metagame is in its infancy, but there’s also clearly a ton of opportunity. The most important thing to consider is that bans, multiple of them, will be inevitable, and probably sooner than later, so be sure to have an exit plan that keeps this in mind.Â
The additional announcement of the 
her, it is almost always correct to do so immediately. If not, then the only option is to find a way around the Batterskull. This is easier said than done, since a 4/4 vigilance creature is a significant body in almost every matchup.
Despite its effects on individual games, Stoneforge has made little measurable impact on the 
behind this joke. Stoneblade is not putting up impressive results, and every deck I've tested felt poor for different reasons.
Stoneforge stood to be especially potent here since Sword of Feast and Famine is exceptional in a deck that needs to tap out for threats but is also packed with counterspells. However, despite 
Stoneforge package means cutting planeswalkers and answers, and those have always been the main advantages of UW. Stoneblade must get by on situational counters and Path to Exile. In practice, I always feel behind against everything and struggled to catch up unless turn-three Batterskull goes unanswered. At least with control I knew when I was actually winning.
However, that doesn't mean that it won't work. I took UW Spiritblade to an MCQ last month and it performed well, although I missed Top 8 on tiebreakers. The Stoneforge package, specifically Sword of Light and Shadow, was critical to wins over Jund and Esper Control. As a grinding tool, I've never found anything better that works consistently in aggressive decks. The problem is that you need to be doing a lot of grinding for it to really matter, as the aforementioned awkwardness is palpable in an aggressive deck. Over longer games, the initially dead cards become more relevant and playable, and what had been awkward bricks change to game winners. However, my meta shifted away from control and towards combo and big mana, so I cut the package.
Mystic helps with the power problem, though not quite enough. The bonus from Swords is very welcome, particularly when the protection is relevant. However, it is rather slow and vulnerable to removal in response to equipping creatures. It's also not that hard for certain decks to answer the equipment itself, setting pilots back to square one. Batterskull is a decent threat, but often outclassed on the ground. As a recurring threat or when equipped to a flier it can swing games, but it can also be so clunky that it never gets going.
I've also heard chatter about other Stoneforge aggro decks, but that hasn't turned into anything concrete. Right after the unbanning, players were trying to make 
While I haven't tested the above build of 
decks to disrupt, but it is usually the faster and more reliable combo. From what I saw, Drake benefitted from his opponents' more complicated decks clunking to varying degrees.
deck does well. Normally I'd just ignore the calls, but there's a wrinkle this time.
The main problem is logistical. If 
As 
The problem has been that a given hand might be the former or the latter, and there's no way of knowing until you play out the game. On many occasions, we've kept turn-one Emry hands, completely whiffed on the mill, and then drawn only payoff cards without anything to make them good. The exact same hand with a mediocre-or-better Emry mill wins within a couple turns. The Ascendancy version is slightly better in that redundant enchantments stack and trigger each other when cast, so there's a chance to dig into gas; however, a Lightning Bolt on Emry can kill any chance that version has to win.
And Bant ran Noble Hierarch, a card that buffed Eldrazi creatures via exalted, further improved Temple draws by leading to dreaded turn-two Thought-Knot Seers, and compensated for hands without Temple by nonetheless reaching one turn higher on the mana curve. While Hierarch cost players a mana and opened Eldrazi pilots up to disruption in the form of ubiquitous small-creature removal, it also let them run Ancient Stirrings, 
I think red's allure is a little subtler than white's, but I'm overall more excited by this splash.
Wrenn also gives us some utility dimensions. Dryad Arbor makes the cut as a fetchable, repeatable blocker, or even attacker in the right situation. And Tranquil Thicket turns Wrenn's plus into an actual plus. Finally, we can't really lose to land destruction anymore, eliminating a common pathway for opponents to deny us our gameplan.
One factor to address in GR is the absence of Eldrazi Displacer. We still need another Eldrazi to round out the curve and make Temple worthwhile. I'm currently on Matter Reshaper, with Obligator relegated to the sideboard. While the 3/1 haste has certainly put up numbers for the strategy in the past, I feel that with so much aggro and midrange in the format right now, Reshaper earns its slots. Obligator is high-impact, but also high-variance, only proving relevant in certain matchups. Additionally, it's more of a four-drop than a three-drop, and its ability requires a colorless source besides the first Eldrazi Temple. I didn't want to be locked into fetching Wastes every pre-board game.
As far as the sideboard goes, Ancient Grudge is the only non-searchable card here. But I think it's too strong in this metagame not to include in a GR deck. The 3 Collector Ouphe may raise some flags, so let my mission statement be clear: I'm through losing to Whirza!
