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Getting Started Part Two: Timing is Everything

Posted on by Patrick Lienemann

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In my first article, I mentioned the two major types of buyers when it comes to MTG Finance, long-term and short-term. If you haven't read it I suggest you check it out here. There are other types of buying/selling/investing that fit somewhere in between, but understanding where you want to be is an important step for getting into this game. Timing happens to be another important step.

What to look for

There was an error retrieving a chart for Niv-Mizzet Reborn

There are a lot of ways to do research on cards. I've listed a few resources in my recent articles and you can find a multitude of them across this website as well. Using said resources, or ones of your own (we all have our secrets sometimes), you can start to gather data on trends. Let's use a popular example for now: EDHRec.

If you're not familiar with EDHRec, it's a fantastic website that's full of everything Commander related.  It has articles, decklists, videos, and loads of data to use. Near the top of the page is a variety of menus, one of which allows you to search for decks by their commander. You can search by 2-color, 3-color, etc. or you can search by "Top Commanders". I'll save you a few seconds - here is the link.  It has "Commanders of All Time" and "This Week" - we are mostly interested in "This Week". The past two or three months there have been some common themes such as Atraxa, Praetors' Voice, Lord Windgrace, and Muldrotha, the Gravetide.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Feather, the Redeemed

These are good commanders to check in on once in a while in the instance something new has popped up. However, when new sets come out we get new toys for EDH.  A great example of this is Feather, the Redeemed. She became an EDH all-star when she was spoiled, and the internet exploded with great combos and one-hit wonders.  Since a lot of the cards that are good in Feather decks have already spiked we should take a look at another commander. Ever so slowly Niv-Mizzet Reborn has made its way to the top of the "Top Commanders" list. As of the writing of this article, there are 270 decks listed on EDHRec and it is ranked #114/888.

So now we have to answer the following questions:

  1. What is popular in the Niv-Mizzet decks?
  2. Are those cards a decent investment?
  3. When do you invest?

What is popular?

Scrolling down through Niv-Mizzet we can see a ton of multicolor and "multicolor matters" cards because that's what this Commander is all about. So how do we pick through what's going to be important? The first card we see that could be a hit is Tome of the Guildpact. Mana rocks are always great in Commander and this one is specific to multicolor cards. When we look at the foil price, Card Kingdom has it at $1.49 and it can be found on TGGplayer for under $1. Yes, it was printed recently in Ravnica Allegiance, but this is a long hold that could yield some cash one day. We can also add to that list Firemind Vessel. Sure, these prices seem great and buying sounds like a great idea, but shouldn't we have a bit more data to back up our plan?

We should also take into consideration both of these cards are in roughly 30% of the 270 Niv-Mizzet decks. If we expand further on that we find Tome is in 260 decks total and Vessel in is just under 400 decks. Out of over 200,000 decks on EDHRec these cards aren't very popular at all. My suggestion would be to not go very deep on these, should you feel the need to buy them.

A bit more scrolling leads us to Bring to Light, Anguished Unmaking, Pillar of the Paruns. To answer our first question about popularity we can dig a bit deeper into each card. All three of these cards are in under 37% of decks listed on EDHRec. Bring to Light is in 3264 decks, Unmaking is in almost 20k decks, and Pillar is in under 400. This is just data from EDHRec though, and I encourage you to do a bit more digging.

Bring and Pillar are currently being tested in Modern decks with the recent MTGGoldfish Deck Tech for a Niv-Mizzet Reborn deck as well as seeing quite a bit of success under the piloting of Jim Davis and Tier Fun on YouTube. Unmaking has been slowly creeping up - it was sitting around $3-4 only a few months ago and has been waiting for something to push it up. The foil version of this is also not at a typical 3-5x multiplier for the numbers that are being seen in EDHRec data. These three cards all have enough support for me to want to consider the next question.

What cards are a decent investment?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anguished Unmaking

Let's start with Anguished Unmaking again. Both foil and nonfoil versions of this card were at an all-time low around January of 2018 and have been on a slow crawl ever since then.  It's a slightly worse Vindicate that is Modern legal. Let's also be honest - the art is GORGEOUS in foil. The fact that it was also a prerelease card and a Game Day promo does hurt it a little bit, but at about $7 (nonfoil) and $9 (foil) this seems like a great card to pick up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bring to Light

Bring to Light can be found in a lot of bulk bins and for fractions of a dollar online. Card Kingdom has it at $0.25/$2.99 and it can be found for about the same prices on TCGplayer.  That's a fairly cheap price to be picking these up. I would also argue that, especially for folks who are newer to MTGFinance, these foils are a great way to get into the finance game.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pillar of the Paruns

Pillar is an interesting card. It can be found (as of the writing of this article) for around $9/$30. It is QUICKLY spiking due to the Modern play it's seeing (I.E. the Seth-Effect) and is something to keep an eye out for. This is a great example of something that has sat in binders and bins for a long time just waiting for the right card to come along. From the moment War of the Spark was spoiled and about a week ago I would say this card was a seriously decent investment. Now I'm not so sure. I would say these are great cards to trade your chaff for or if you are one of those lucky folks who have an LGS that slacks on pricing to pick up.

When do you invest?

Anguished Unmaking is a great investment right now. It was the best investment about a year ago leading up to now, but it still has a chance to hit it big.  I honestly think nonfoils could hit $12-15 one day and foils $20+. It's a great card to add to your cart if you need to hit a "free shipping over $50" type of shop or something to add on to a trade to finalize it. I have a few of these sitting on my table and that pile slowly grows each month.

Bring to Light is an AMAZING investment right now. It's only going to gain you money unless it's reprinted (for some reason).  I would be picking these up fairly actively, but not too aggressively.  Add a handful to a cart here or there, maybe make a $10-$15 buy occasionally. It has the potential to spike if it meets the right requirements, but it also has "Commander love" for multi-color decks to make small gains over a long period. I'd say buy them and tuck them away to forget about until the time is right.

Pillar is, in my opinion, a missed opportunity. However, it is something we can learn from. If scrolling through EDHRec is a resource that you want to use, then this teaches that we should be on the lookout for slightly random cards from older sets that folks have forgotten about in other lists. The same can be said for most of the cards on the "Top Commanders" list.

In Conclusion

Using EDHRec is just one of many ways to figure out specs, and it's quite a fantastic heap of data. Just like any other resource, you shouldn't rely strictly on just one data point and need to back up your specs with things like Top 8 lists, YouTube videos, and social media conversations. One of my rules (I've mentioned it in past articles) is to justify your specs and believe in them. You can't just say "this deck plays this card so I'll buy X copies in hopes of making money." Dive deep into the resources/data and figure out why it's important to buy. When should you sell? That's a whole different topic we can visit next time.

The Flusterstorm Controversy: A History of MTG Finance

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Everyone’s heard of the famous quote, “…in this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” In the Magic community, I’d like to put forth a third certainty: controversy. It seems like no matter what WOTC does, somebody somewhere is going to be offended, upset, and spark drama on social media.

Last week was no exception.

It all started with an allegedly leaked image depicting a Buy-a-Box promo Flusterstorm for the upcoming release of Modern Horizons. The image made it to social media, where major Magic personalities made it widely available to the public.

That’s when the controversy erupted. In various forms of written critique, “MTG finance” was blamed for the leak, blamed for its dissemination, and blamed for the resulting spike in Flusterstorms price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flusterstorm

Some folks piled on, while others came to MTG finance’s defense. Take a look at the numbers of retweets, likes, and replies. Everyone has an opinion on such heated topics. If you have some time, check out the responses to these tweets, linked below. The sentiment from the community is eye-opening.

April's Tweet
Saffron's Tweet

Obviously, I won’t be able to convince an entire community of one side or another in a single article. But I hope to convey a couple of important points that both sides should consider when entering into a debate on the merits/pitfalls of MTG finance. I’ll try to be as unbiased as possible, but please keep in mind this is an MTG finance website.

Point 1: Magic is Founded on “Finance”

Ever since Richard Garfield invented the game and designed it with rarities, there became a financial component to Magic. There were 16,000 copies printed of each Alpha common and only 1,100 of each rare—hence, from day one rares were fifteen times harder to come by than commons. In fact, if you look at the patent filing for Magic, it explicitly states:

“The game further includes the unique feature of components that have a tradable and a collectable status. In other words, a certain amount of the game components have a limited availability to the players, thus, increasing the value of the components and encouraging players to trade and collect game components.”

In plain black and white, Richard Garfield states the importance of cards having rarity and value to the game. If variable card values are not to one’s liking, they probably shouldn’t engage in a game built upon such an economy. In the background section of the patent, there’s an explanation of the importance of this economy:

“Trading cards are typically exchanged among enthusiasts to obtain cards that are needed to complete a set of related cards or to collect cards that are not readily available. Collectors buy and sell these cards for their economic and historic value. The cards themselves have varying monetary values, depending on the popularity of the individual depicted thereon and the availability of each card, some being more common than others. Such cards are typically sold through retail game stores and other specialty outlets.

Playing cards, on the other hand, especially the well-known fifty-two deck face cards, are easily and readily available. The cards themselves, individually and collectively, generally have no value other than for amusement. Many different games can be played with a single deck of playing cards, limited generally by the imagination of the players. Some card games require cards especially printed for that game, and these cards have little value outside the playing of that particular game.”

I’m not a lawyer, but it’s fair to say that removing the financial aspect of Magic would mean this game would not look anything like it does today. At least, the patent would have to use different phrasing. For those who detest the fact that cards have varying rarities and can be traded with monetary value are dissenting against one of the purest components of the game itself.

It’s a regular Catch 22. The game exists because of its economy, yet people hate the economy of the game.

Point 2: Magic Prices Have Increased Well Before MTG Finance

It’s difficult to pinpoint the beginning of “MTG finance”. People have probably been trading with the intent of increasing their collection’s value since the game’s invention in 1993. I personally attribute the origins of the “MTG finance” community back to Jonathan Medina’s articles on StarCityGames.com. He began his series on August 11th, 2010, covering a range of financial topics.

Even earlier, Kelly Reid founded this website on the basic premise of “helping readers get more out of their collection.” Quiet Speculation’s first published article dates back to May 17th, 2009, over a year before Star City Games picked up Medina. If we use this as the birth of “MTG finance”, then the community just celebrated its tenth birthday.

What was the financial landscape of Magic like before 2009? Did card prices remain largely stagnant, with only Standard (and Extended) rotation driving costs? Absolutely not! It turns out card prices were appreciating well before the founders of MTG finance hit the scene. In fact, I can track such price increases throughout time by examining them in old issues of InQuest magazine.

For argument’s sake, let’s take a look at the price of some Beta Duals and Unlimited Black Lotus from InQuest’s first and last issues. These prices will be least impacted by random fluctuation in Standard, metagame shifts, etc.

InQuest’s first issue from May 1995 shows that Unlimited Black Lotus’s value was around $150. Beta Underground Sea was $10. Fast-forward to issue 150, published in October 2007 (still before Quiet Speculation and Jonathan Medina hit the scene), and you see a very different story. Unlimited Black Lotus is worth around $800 and Beta Underground Sea is $275.

With this data in hand, I’d maintain the point that Magic’s collectability and success were responsible for these massive moves in price between 1995 and 2007. It stands to reason that further appreciation should be expected to happen as Magic’s popularity grew even further between 2007 and 2009.

Black Lotus appreciated 433% from 1995 to 2007. If we extrapolate this rate of return for the next 12 years, 2007 through 2019, we would have predicted a Black Lotus price tag of around $3500. Instead, it’s around $10,000. You could make the argument that the delta between $3,500 and $10,000 is the result of a self-serving MTG finance community. But we all know past performance never guarantees future returns. It’s difficult to say what Black Lotus would be worth today if there was no “MTG finance” but I’d argue it would be at least $3500 because Magic’s growth through the past decade has been huge.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Point 3: Supply & Demand vs. MTG Finance

On Wall Street, the stock market will often overshoot to the upside and downside through never-ending fluctuation. A bout of bad news will emerge and people sell their holdings out of panic, thus degrading prices excessively. Then there’s a streak of good news and stock prices overheat, trading well above fair value. It’s possible to take advantage of these oscillations, buying when the panic peaks and selling when euphoria takes hold.

The short term over- and under-shooting of fair market value is related to speculator emotions, hype-driven writing, and the “Stock Market Finance” community. This community can create short term impacts on individual stocks, but in the long-run supply and demand should dictate that stock’s fair value.

In the same way, Magic card prices can spike or tank in response to community influence. The most recent example would be Flusterstorm, which doubled overnight once the alleged leaks surfaced. Speculators likely shopped around and purchased multiple copies at the old price in anticipation of increased demand.

You can point blame at this community for the short term impact on price—I agree that speculators likely bought out the market, causing the card’s value to increase rapidly. These same “MTG finance” people will try to establish a new, higher price point by listing their newly acquired copies at 2x the old price. In the short term, this stranglehold on supply, combined with hype and emotions, will cause the price to spike.

Over a longer period of time, however, Flusterstorm’s price will not be set by these speculators. Speculators have no interest in owning 20 copies of Flusterstorm—their goal is to make money. They only make a profit when they sell. They can list these cards at whatever silly price they want; if no one buys, then they’ll drop their price. Others will enter the market too, undercutting each other to try and get a piece of the action. In the end, the price will drop until players are willing to pay the listed price, and copies will once again exchange hands.

Thus, Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand will guide Flusterstorm to its new price point. MTG finance can be a nuisance and create price spikes in the short term. But in the long term, the economics of supply and demand are what establishes a card’s price. In the extreme case, when a concentrated few speculators control a majority position of a card, they may control the price. In that case, buyers simply won’t pay up and no copies will exchange hands.

This is unfortunate because it prevents some people from obtaining the cards they want. The good news is this is only really possible with Magic’s rarest and oldest cards, which aren’t played by 99.9% of the player base. This could also apply with something like a Masterpiece card, which has much more affordable counterparts that perform the same function in a deck.

Wrapping It Up

“MTG finance” has been around for a decade. But card prices, trading for value, and rarity are inherent to Magic’s design. Richard Garfield recognized this and included these details in his patent for the game. Without a Magic economy, there is no Magic. It’s that plain and simple.

That said, I will concede the fact that Magic card prices are manipulated by an “MTG finance” community, at least in the short term. This community buys out the market of a card in response to emotions and news, such as an alleged leak from a new set. The key though, is that this community doesn’t make a dime on such behavior unless the market is willing to bear a higher price point. If no one is willing to pay up for Flusterstorm at $30, then sellers will drop their price to $28. Then $26.

Sellers will continue to do so until a sale is made. At that point, the most a single buyer is willing to pay for the card becomes the new price for the card. Adam Smith predicts this will happen via the Invisible Hand that adjusts the price until exchanges are made. In the long run, as long as people behave rationally, a card will find its final price no matter what path it takes.

We can look at Flusterstorm’s spike and blame MTG finance. But if you want to point blame for the card’s new, higher price, then you need to point at Richard Garfield, Wizards of the Coast, and the person buying Flusterstorm at the higher price point. They’re the ones who make Magic’s long-term economy what it is.

…

Sigbits

  • Mox Diamonds buy price on Card Kingdom’s site hit a recent high, $175. This reflects a gradually draining supply on TCGPlayer, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the buylist hit $200 if Card Kingdom gets desperate enough to restock. There’s no manipulation or “MTG finance” here—this is just a popular card on the Reserved List with sustained demand.
  • The Worldwake printing of Jace, the Mind Sculptor used to have the highest buy price on Card Kingdom’s site. But now the Eternal Masters printing is sporting a $100 buy price. I suspect each nonfoil printing is worth about the same, and Card Kingdom places the highest buy price on whatever version they have fewest copies of at any given moment.
  • The buy price on Grim Monolith hit a new high lately—Card Kingdom has it on their hotlist with a $95 buy price. This is yet another popular Reserved List card that is likely to climb higher over time as copies on the open market dwindle.

Modern Top 5: Planeswalkers

Posted on by Jordan Boisvert

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The focus of Magic's newest expansion, War of the Spark, is planeswalkers. These have historically lacked what it takes to consistently make a splash in Modern. Walkers are fair cards, after all, and designed for a Standard power level; besides, in a Turn Four Format, successfully integrating a permanent type that tends to cost four and up takes dedication, or just a certain kind of (*ahem* slow) deck. Today, we'll take a closer look at Modern's most snubbed of card categories, and tip our hats to the walkers that help define the format.

The Planeswalker's Plight

First of all, let's discuss why planeswalkers have such a hard time breaking into Modern. Fundamentally, planesalkers do two things:

  • Provide an immediate effect in the form of a small plus or minus
  • Provide a bonus effect in the form of snowballing value as the turns roll on

Immediate Effects

The immediate effect, for planeswalkers to be printable, always costs more than that effect on an instant or sorcery. Take Ajani Vengeant's Lightning Helix at two extra mana, or Gideon Jura's six-mana Vengeance. If the cost of the walker were the same as the cost of the spell it immediately cast, there would be no reason to play the original spell at all.

Ours is a format centered around mana efficiency, so overpaying for a given effect is especially displeasing for Modern players. And since walkers are always played at sorcery speed, these effects can prove less flexible than when on instants. Whether the additional price is worth paying depends on the value gained from keeping the walker in play rather than just sending it to the graveyard, as we would with an actual sorcery. Viewed through this lens, planeswalkers are sorceries with a non-optional kicker cost that leaves behind the potential for future effects.

Long-Term Value

We'll call that potential long-term value, or LTV. LTV comes in three styles, which each feature some degree of overlap with the others.

  • Inevitability. This mode of LTV pressures opponents to deal with the walker by threatening something menacing down the road. That could be re-use of its initial mode, like Liliana of the Veil, or a game-winning ultimate, like Liliana, the Last Hope. Of course, a horde of Zombies might break a midrange slog wide-open, but decks like Storm could care less; therefore, the inevitability of a given effect varies depending on the matchup. Inevitability often takes the form of a "suspend X" effect (e.g. Ancestral Visions), wherein opponents may attack the walker to increase the suspend count.
  • Gradual advantage. Walkers that produce advantage each turn fall under this category. Often, these effects involve drawing cards (Sarkhan, Fireblood), creating tokens (Gideon, Ally of Zendikar), or increasing power/toughness (Nissa, Voice of Zendikar). They pressure opponents to deal with the walker before that advantage snowballs into a game-winning threat.
  • Static effects. While literal static effects on planeswalkers were introduced for the first time in War of the Spark, some older walkers utilized the same principle. For instance, Gideon of the Trials locked down an enemy threat, as do enchantments like Runed Halo. What's truly new are static effects that hose opponents, such as Ashiok, Dream Render. With Ashiok in play, a type of play pattern becomes impossible for opponents to execute.

As perhaps evinced by the name, long-term value isn't exactly what Modern players look for in a card. How much turn-by-turn value can be generated if the game ends so fast? Since Modern is tempo-centric, and not card-advantage focused, creating a gameplan around snowballing value frequently proves a losing strategy. That, combined with the fact that players must already overpay for their initial walker effects, makes the format a hostile environment for the card type.

Reigniting the Guildpact

Of course, planeswalkers still see use in Modern, which means those that do meet certain thresholds for playability. In Modern Top 5, we try to break down those thresholds and apply them to thematic exemplars with the hope of improving future card analysis.

To assess our walkers, we'll draw from the very first entry in this article series, Modern Top 5: Utility Cards. In other words, we'll use three metrics.

  • Power: The degree of impact the card tends to have for its cost.
  • Flexibility: The card’s usefulness across diverse situations and game states.
  • Splashability: The ease with which Modern decks can accommodate the card.

Power and flexibility will be rated by considering both a card’s floor (the least it will do) and its ceiling (its best-case scenario). For example, Lightning Bolt‘s power floor is higher than Fatal Push‘s, as Push is dead when opponents have no creatures while Bolt can go to the face.

Splashability will be rated by considering how many existing Modern decks can accommodate the card and whether they’ll want it. For example, despite its lack of a color identity, Ghost Quarter doesn’t fit into BGx midrange decks. These decks can easily run Fulminator Mage as mana disruption instead, and prefer not to miss a land drop if they don’t have to.

In the case of power, we'll measure how cheap a walker's initial effect is relative to its sorcery analogue against the relevance of its LTV. Flexibility refers to the walker's applications in different matchups and game states. Each metric will be rated out of 5, giving the card a total rating out of 15. Even if a walker scores low overall, that doesn't mean it's bad or overplayed; just that its uses are somewhat limited in Modern as a whole. Similarly, there are plenty of great walkers not on this list!

#5: Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Overall: 8/15

Power: 4

Let's be real—five mana for any of Teferi's immediate effects is a steep price. But the walker does protect himself from menacing creatures, and can start with a relatively high loyalty count if needed. That he costs closer to three mana in practice also increases his power, but further limits his splashability, as few decks can afford to make five land drops before dropping Teferi into play. The walker's effects do everything that UW Control could ever want, providing both inevitability and a stunning amount of gradual advantage.

Flexibility: 3

Teferi kind of does the same thing every time, which is start putting the game away for UW Control. But the wording on his -3 is a boon for the walker's flexibility. Like Assassin's Trophy, another costly multicolor card celebrated for its versatility, Teferi can remove a huge scope of permanent types—planeswalkers, enchantments, you name it (well, not lands). While adding them back to the deck can mean needing to deal with them again, UW can arrange to have an answer by then, and this form of removal doesn't care about clauses like indestructible.

Splashability: 1

Functionally costing three mana or no, the fact remains that Teferi's down-payment price tag is out of reach for most Modern decks. Barring fringe control builds, the only proven strategy that can wield him at all is pure UW Control, a deck already built to manage the battlefield for a game's entirety.

#4: Karn Liberated

Overall: 9/15

Power: 5

Generally costing a functional three mana thanks to Urza's Tower and its cronies, Karn Liberated boasts a power level obscene enough to single-handedly grant the Tron deck eternal meme status. At any stage in the game, Karn threatens to take at least a player's best permanent; early on, that's a land, and later, it's anything troublesome. Its +4 makes Karn difficult to attack down, and inevitability-wise, the ultimate does guarantee a win—it's just often superfluous anyway. Karn Liberated's abilities offer all three types of LTV.

Flexibility: 3

As with Teferi, the flexibility here comes primarily from Karn's -3 ability, which permanently removes any permanent. As a pricier walker, Karn's bar for flexibility is a little higher, but it also offers more modes than Teferi: should pilots just want to establish a big board, +4 helps keep Karn alive, and restarting the game can even beat infinite-life and other combos.

Splashability: 1

All good things must come to an end, and splashability is where Karn Liberated really suffers. Only Gx Tron can afford a seven-mana walker. While Karn is a fixture in that deck, and probably not going anywhere in the near future, we're also quite safe to not see him in another strategy.

#3: Karn, the Great Creator

Overall: 10/15

Power: 2

...That is, unless it's in a different suit! Karn, the Great Creator features a laughably small power level next to big brother, but more than makes up on our other metrics. Power-wise, Creator suffers in a few ways. Its +1 is only relevant in certain decks, and nothing to write home about regardless. Karn's -2 is as strong as the artifacts lying dormant in the sideboard, but with a catch: pilots need to cast those, too. All that mana quickly adds up, making Karn, the Great Creator a pricey inclusion.

Still, Modern has quite a few worthy artifacts. Among them is Mycosynth Lattice, the wishboard target that gives Creator so much inevitability: once pilots get to six mana, the artifact combines with Karn's static ability to totally lock opponents out of playing spells by preventing enemy lands from tapping for mana.

Flexibility: 4

Besides Mycosynth, Karn has a nigh-limitless arsenal at its disposal: artifact hate like Relic of Progenitus; recursive utility like Crucible of Worlds; surgical answers like Sorcerous Spyglass; pseudo-board wipes like Ratchet Bomb. I've enjoyed the walker in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, a decidedly worse "Karn deck" than Green Tron. Nonetheless, the flexibility Karn provides has turned some bad matchups (Bridge Prison, Hardened Scales, UW, etc.) favorable single-handedly, and at a minimal cost to the deck's already-good matchups.

Karn's static ability also adds a hearty dose of flexibility, as its "floor" then becomes one of the best sideboard cards in the format, Stony Silence. While only relevant in certain pairings, giving decks the chance to run mainboard Stony at no real cost significantly broadens its appeal.

Splashability: 4

We've already seen Karn make appearances in Green and Eldrazi Tron, decks in which it seems to be a staple; mono-red prison and stompy decks; Eldrazi Stompy, as mentioned; and even combo strategies like Amulet Titan. The card is dominating in older formats, too, especially Vintage. Karn's wide applications in a format with so many great artifacts to choose from, as well as its colorless mana cost, make it a card many decks will continue to both want and be able to play.

#2: Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Overall: 11/15

Power: 4

Brainstorm is probably the most powerful cantrip in Magic after Ancestral Recall; AJ Sacher famously called it "too good to be cast." Casting Brainstorm every turn? Now that'll put the game away! Since its unban, Jace, the Mind Sculptor has had far from the format-warping effect its pundits once claimed. But it's still solidified itself as one of Modern's scariest planeswalkers.

Besides the incredible gradual value of a repeatable Brainstorm, Jace's -1 protects itself from enemy threats, if badly; Unsummon often plays like treading water, since Jace doesn't generate any value that turn. His +2 is more in line with what players might want to be doing, painfully keeping the game out of reach for opponents while ticking toward an ultimate that will win the game.

Flexibility: 3

Jace pulls much of his flexibility from his whopping four abilities. In a deck loaded with interaction, Brainstorm itself provides a good deal of flexibility; being able to grow Jace out of damage range with its +2, create gradual advantage both offensively or defensively, impact the board, and eventually win the game by itself also help. But Jace isn't much good at impacting the board, and is a largely miserable play when players find themselves behind.

Splashability: 4

Jace has made appearances in decks ranging from the control end of the archetype spectrum (UW, Esper) to midrange (Temur, Faeries) to tempo (Kiki-Exarch, Blue Moon) to even combo (Copy-Cat, Breach). Four mana seems a totally reasonable price to pay for such a powerful walker, and the UU color cost manageable for all blue decks.

#1: Liliana of the Veil

Overall: 12/15

Power: 4

Since her printing, Liliana of the Veil has been Modern's premier planeswalker, and for good reason. Just one more mana for Diabolic Edict, a card we until recently haven't even had legal, is a tiny additional investment for what's left behind. While the -2 pressures creature decks, Lili's +1 forces opponents to play their threats out early, and gives her other applications against critical-mass combo decks.

Flexibility: 4

As hinted at above, Liliana mostly does it all; she's great on an empty board, where she pressures the hand and prevents creatures from sticking to attack her, and equally great against resolved threats, where she locks in her highest-value ability upon resolution. The -6 can deal with troublesome permanents otherwise out of reach for some color combinations, like Grixis (which can't touch enchantments), or just nuke big boards. It won't win on its own, but many decks still don't want it resolving.

Splashability: 4

As with Jace in blue, any black deck can fit Liliana—and usually does. From Grixis Shadow to Hollow One, not to mention her forever-home in BGx Rock and plenty in between, Lili's got no shortage of couches to watch the game from.

Boots Made for Walkin'

While the established metrics aim to reduce subjectivity in Modern Top 5, a degree of personal preference and bias is impossible to divorce from most any "Top Something" list. In this case, the number ratings on each metric, as well as the selection of metrics themselves, are the most arbitrary element of my process. How do you evaluate planeswalkers? Which do you think are Modern's best? Let's keep the discussion going in the comments!

Modern Horizons and the Road Ahead

Posted on by Christopher O'Berry

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War of the Spark's hype cycle has concluded! Mythic Edition refunds have been issued, foil sheets will be sent out to be inevitably mutilated, and suddenly, many Magic players are left with anywhere between $249.99 and $499.98 burning a hole in their pockets. With Modern Horizons spoiler season coming up, we're on the cusp of a lot of card movement across the board in Modern. Many are looking ahead to potential reworks of old favorites or returning cards never before seen in Standard sets of the past 15 years.

A lot of baseless speculation on what Modern Horizons will contain has no doubt graced your newsfeed in some shape or form. I've heard everything from the return of Slivers to those that are 100 percent convinced that we'll get Flusterstorm and Daze. I'm more inclined to call these guesses rather than strong hints, but time will tell.

I'm looking back on the cards we already have, calls I've made in the past, and potential gainers within this new hype cycle.

Dead Horses

Yes, I know I've talked it to death, and I'm not the only one. Fetchlands are without a doubt the safest MTG finance investment going into the end of May. We've got several options here, but the lowest buy-ins are with the five from Khans of Tarkir.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Windswept Heath

All five are solid plays, but the most interesting one to me here is Windswept Heath. The best Selesnya decks like Bant Spirits have been on the decline in Modern as of late, giving way to the rainbow-landed Humans, Grixis Death's Shadow, or Tron variants. Still, decks like Infect, TitanShift, and Abzan Company all make use of it and remain in the conversation for some of the best decks in Modern.

To add to this, the early spoiler of Cabal Therapist hints at creature-based reworks of favorite non-creature spells, which may add new utility creatures in green and white. Should the metagame shift towards playing these, Windswept Heath is where you want to be. Speaking of Selesnya lands...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horizon Canopy

We're pretty far out from its most recent reprint in Iconic Masters, but Horizon Canopy is still at a great price compared to what it once was. It didn't take long for this card to start to recover from the initial supply spike and it has been trending upward ever since. Decks like Humans play the land as a full playset and it shows up in many other creature-based decklists as a way to draw cards later in the game.

Near Mint copies are still available under $60, which may seem a bit hefty. However, it's likely this will continue to be one of the most expensive utility lands once the new Modern goes into full swing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cavern of Souls

It is frankly astounding to me that despite multiple reprints, Cavern of Souls's price snaps right back so close to the $90 mark in times of Modern demand. The story here is a bit different from Horizon Canopy, as they aren't always featured in the same decks, it's not unreasonable to say that the two are closely related. Again, Humans drives a lot of the demand for this card, but it's overall one of the best rainbow lands ever printed and will be an auto-include in any tribal build going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Vial

Kind of in the same vein, I'm pretty high on Aether Vial. With creatures likely becoming a big focus, I'm very interested in this one-mana artifact. It's one of the most powerful fair cards in the format, as it essentially cheats the stack, paying specific mana costs, and being harder to answer outside of the normal suite of removal. Outside of its original Darksteel printing, Aether Vial has been featured in a From The Vault, the original Modern Masters, and Iconic Masters. Despite this, it has consistently maintained overall growth since Modern's inception, and will likely continue this trend moving forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

A pillar of the format I've talked about a whole lot less than others is Thoughtseize. It is still the premier discard spell, alongside Inquisition of Kozilek. These are by far the best pieces of disruption in the format. Most of Modern's top decks are linear, redundant strategies that reduce the overall potency of discard spells, but I think there's a good chance that could change with the introduction of Modern Horizons.  We've seen many metagame snapshots where these cards were the best turn-one plays available.

Shaky Ground

There are a lot of cards we consider staples of the format. Modern Horizons presents an opportunity for a large paradigm shift in the format. At least, that's what I'm inferring from all the official verbiage given by WotC thus far.  There are a lot of cards that could easily be usurped and dethroned for appearing in decklists, and I think there are some cards that may be on thin ice. Some of this talk toes the line on what some consider baseless speculation, so please take some of these statements with a grain of salt.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Cryptic Command is one of the most powerful pieces of countermagic ever printed and has been the backbone of control decks since the format's inception. The major issue with this card is that it costs four mana, and doesn't always win you the game on the spot. That being said, UW Control decks have been performing very well as of late in Modern. The card has been on the upswing lately, largely having recovered from its Iconic Masters reprint. However, as I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the possible reprinting of cards like Counterspell, Flusterstorm, Daze, and even Force of Will present a threat of replacement.

UW Control has a lot of four-mana cards in it as is, and should we see the return of premier countermagic that sees play in Legacy, Cryptic may start getting cut from decklists in favor of leaner options. That being said, there is no guarantee that the texture of this format will be quite like Legacy, given the wide card pool available. If we get just one or two of the aforementioned spells, they will likely reinforce or push up Cryptic Command's price. If we get all of them, I predict the exact opposite.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urza's Mine

Tron has been a hot topic of discussion for many Modern players for the past few weeks for several different reasons, but I think the deck could have some troubles going forward. Many have called Wasteland, or some fixed version of it to enter the format. Field of Ruin and Ghost Quarter are currently decent-enough options that are very well balanced, so I very much doubt we'll see Wasteland introduced. Running with what I do know, Cabal Therapist represents what will likely be a strong discard spell that improves the Tron matchup ever so slightly, especially for decks like Jund or Grixis Death's Shadow.

Bring It on Home

Modern Horizons presents an incredible opportunity to revitalize the format, and shake things up gameplay wise. My recommendation for nearly guaranteed growth will be purchasing the evergreen cards of the format, primarily the fetchlands.

We've only got a few days left until spoiler season starts proper. We're going to see a lot of quick movement over the course of the next few weeks, and you'll want to keep your eyes peeled on spoiler sources. I'll be covering spoiler content here if you'd like to join me. As well, you can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or on Instagram @chroberrymtg for updates on spoiler content.

Peace!

Chris’s Commander Corner: Niv-Mizzet Reborn

Posted on by Christopher Martin

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Editor's note: this article contains spoilers from the Magic storyline

Hey Readers, welcome back! It's been a while since I've done a Commander Corner article, but what better way to break the drought than writing about one of my favorite Magic characters of all-time?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Niv-Mizzet Reborn

I'll admit I was upset when I learned Nicol Bolas killed Niv-Mizzet, Parun because I was afraid Niv might not get any new cards in the future. Niv has always been one of my favorite characters in the Magic storyline. I even constructed a Niv-Mizzet, Parun EDH deck back in the winter and have continued upgrading it ever since. I also have had a fascination with dragons since I was a kid, so Niv being a favorite of mine shouldn't come as any surprise.

The EDH community has been mostly on a hiatus since Feather, the Redeemed was spoiled. My day-to-day news feed usually filled with EDH love has been completely overshadowed by the Mythic Edition fiasco, the new format being proposed called Oathbreaker, Modern Horizons speculation, various Magic Pro League issues and drama, and the shake-up of the Standard meta caused by War of the Spark.

I'm ready for all of the buzz to settle and refocus on my favorite eternal format, so to recalibrate myself I figured I would share some thoughts and specs based on the Niv-Mizzet Reborn EDH deck I'm brewing.

Questions to Ask Ourselves

Before speculating, I always preach asking yourself one very important question: would you play with those cards?

If the answer is a resounding yes because you brewed, play-tested, or saw a friend have success doing the same, then there is a strong likelihood you are onto something. In the case of Niv, my answer to that question ended up being a "yes". It helps that I preordered two boxes of War of the Spark and one of the mythics I pulled was Niv. It is also of equal importance to note that my wife and I welcomed a new baby boy to the world a couple of weeks ago, so despite the mostly-sleepless nights I have found reprieve in brewing EDH decks while he sleeps.

The combination of that sanctuary-esque feeling of brewing and having a physical copy of Niv-Mizzet Reborn in hand motivated me to evaluate the merits of Niv in an EDH setting, particularly as a general. It also led me to do a lot of research and find what I believe are some really strong targets for speculation purposes should we determine Niv to be popular enough to generate meaningful demand.

I have always felt I have a fairly strong pulse on the EDH scene, but like any content creator I have my misses and over-exaggerations, which I have learned are often spurred by my own clouded judgment and self-fulfilling prophecy. In this instance, I want to be extra transparent given all of the details I mentioned already:

  • I am a Niv-Mizzet fan
  • I love and am fascinated by dragons
  • I happened to pull a copy of Niv in one of my War of the Spark booster boxes
  • I am brewing more than ever as a new dad

With that in mind, let's move into the guts of my rationale for why I think A) Niv-Mizzet Reborn will be a popular general for years to come and B) why I think my specs are worth consideration.

Developing the 99

As with any EDH deck, cutting down to the final 99 with Niv-Mizzet Reborn was difficult. In fact, I am still working on final cuts two weeks after beginning my brewing journey (details on that to follow on Twitter). I struggled to determine a strategy for my Niv-Mizzet Reborn deck which only further complicated the choices in the 99.

Eventually, I decided I wanted to pursue a "legendary-creatures matter" deck that wins using an aggro strategy and which leverages Niv to consistently refill the hand. I saw an article put out by our friends at www.EDHREC.com while I was working on my own and the Niv strategy discussed by the writer there was to leverage Niv in a control/spell-wielder capacity because of the card advantage he can generate.

I don't dislike this approach, and frankly think it is probably quite effective, but my general demeanor in EDH is not to turtle but rather to strike fiercely with a more aggressive approach. I want my opponents to feel like my deck could win at any time to encourage them to play attentive Magic, and also to generate fun combat interactions I might not otherwise get by casting a lot of board wipes or cards like Counterspell and Anguished Unmaking. There is a moral to this story, though:

Important Takeaway #1

By Niv-Mizzet Reborn being a 5C commander, a dragon, and a commander who can generate consistent card advantage, he gives brewers a ton of options to pursue. That's extremely important when considering the longevity of a commander and determining whether speculating around the general is wise.

Conversely, if the general only offers a single, narrow-focused strategy or wincon, such as Prime Speaker Vannifar, the hype might be huge during spoiler season but will Snuff Out faster than the candles in the first War of the Spark teaser.

Chalk this up as a reason to consider Niv-Mizzet Reborn EDH-related specs.

Important Takeaway #2

The fact that Niv-Mizzet Reborn can enable so many different approaches and strategies makes it much tougher to focus on important specs. As a result, we have to narrow down the few cards which would be near-universal-includes. These are the cards which, no matter what strategy is chosen, are necessary to make Niv successful. As such, I contemplated this heavily and it reflects in my choices for cards to consider for Niv-Mizzet Reborn EDH purposes.

Important Takeaway #3

Niv-Mizzet Reborn has been consistently holding a top spot on the EDHREC weekly top commanders list and ranks #2 only to Feather, the Redeemed for overall weekly deck creation. This tells us that there is some non-zero demand to consider in the EDH community, and if nothing else Niv should have our attention.

Investment Plan

Let's dive into the cards I love the most which would benefit tremendously from an increase in popularity due to Niv-Mizzet Reborn EDH decks. Note that all but one of these cards has reasonable crossover between strategies employed by Niv (i.e. would be an inclusion in the Niv deck regardless of the wincon/strategy used).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pillar of the Paruns

Confidence: 4/5

Pillar of the Paruns is all but guaranteed to show up in any deck that uses Niv-Mizzet Reborn. Much like a recent callout I made on a QS Insider Podcast (Mana Confluence), Pillar of the Paruns adds the beautiful dynamic of mana-fixing to an otherwise very complex mana base. To be successful with Niv's ETB trigger, brewers will need to be running 80%+ of their total non-land 99 as multicolored guild-pairings. This makes for a complex and expensive mana base short of running fetches and dual lands. Thus, while Pillar of the Paruns only gets brewers one land closer to mana-fixing, it will be absolute-must in any Niv deck. It will not be showing up as a reprint in Modern Horizons which only buoys its upside.

Niv has also been briefly showing up in some fun lists for Modern where he is complemented by Pillar of the Paruns as 4-of. I'm a lot less sold on Niv in Modern, but it has been mentioned in QS Discord and on Twitter as something to watch, and certainly won't hurt the upside of Pillar of the Paruns.

(Note: Mana Confluence is an equally intriguing card to watch and in full transparency, I picked up a handful of NM copies of the Mana Confluence Expedition when Niv was first spoiled).

Target Buy:

  • I like Pillar of the Paruns nonfoils at $6 (NM) if you can still find them --> I picked up four copies at this price when I first mentioned cards to consider for Niv-Mizzet Reborn in the QS Discord (a week early)
  • I like foils at or under $15 (NM) but those appear to have dried up quickly --> I picked up eight NM foil copies at $12.99 when first calling specs in the QS Insider Discord for Niv last week

Target Exit:

  • Nonfoils (NM) --> $15 (and higher if you are a Direct seller on TCGPlayer); turnaround time = 1 month or less
  • Foils (NM) --> $30 (with a much higher ceiling if Niv in Modern gains any traction); turnaround time = 1 month or less
There was an error retrieving a chart for Urza's Filter

Confidence: 4/5

Flickering Niv-Mizzet Reborn is the best way to achieve value off his ETB trigger, but recasting him is a good backup option. What better way to do that than having the first recast at a discount? Urza's Filter has always been one of those really old cards I have watched rot in my bulk rare bin with little to no love. The primary reason for that is because it makes all multicolored spells cost two less (even opponents). But, if you are casting 80%+ of your deck as a multicolored spell, that downside is more than offset.

Because it is a single-print rare from Invasion, Urza's Filter is the type of card that won't take much demand to drive prices up significantly. I believe it will be an auto-include in Niv decks even just to act as a second Sol Ring for Niv himself.

The downside case here is a reprint in Modern Horizons; if that were to happen, all bets are off on non-foils. Foils, on the other hand, could become very attractive long-term because of the "old border" premier look and feel.

Target Buy:

  • I took a gamble and purchased 16 LP non-foils for $0.79 --> I think any price sub-$1 for NM and LP is fine
  • I like acquiring NM and LP foil versions for sub-$15 if you can still find them --> when I called Urza's Filter last week to QS Insiders, there were a handful of NM foils still available for $12.99 on Card Kingdom, but those have since been purchased

Target Exit:

  • Barring reprint, nonfoils (NM) --> $3 (with a good buy list play if you are quick); turnaround time = 1-3 months
  • Reprint resistant foils (NM) --> $30, turnaround time = 1-3 months
There was an error retrieving a chart for Conjurer's Closet

Confidence: 4/5

I just mentioned flickering Niv-Mizzet Reborn as the best way to achieve value, so of course, one card that does just that had to make the cut, right? When I was reviewing Flicker options for my personal Niv brew several cards stood out and made the cut:

Venser, the Sojourner, Voyager Staff, Synod Sanctum, and Turn to Mist to name a few.

That said, Conjurer's Closet foils really stood out to me because of the single-print status and current supply on TCGPlayer and surrounding vendors. I believe this card could be an auto-include if you are building a Niv-Mizzet Reborn EDH deck and thus I believe it warrants a solid spot on my cards to consider list.

Target Buy:

  • Nonfoils are more expensive than you'd expect but due to the multiple prints I don't like them as a spec
  • The foils are in much shorter supply likely because existing demand for flickering exists due to Roon of the Hidden Realm popularity and thus any near mint copies sub-$12 is a solid buy still --> I called Conjurer's Closet foils on QS Discord last week when you could still find NM copies sub-$10 but I suspect that price is gone

Target Exit:

  • Foils (NM) --> $20; turnaround time = 1-3 months
There was an error retrieving a chart for Heroes' Podium

Confidence: 3/5

I had to throw one card in which I am using as a wincon in my "legends-matter" build: Heroes' Podium. To date, this card only sees fringe play in casual EDH decks like Captain Sisay and Raff Capashen, Ship's Mage. With a Niv-legends deck running around, I believe this card could have enough newfound demand to boost its foil print out of bulk status.

Heroes' Podium is interestingly one of those rare cards stuck in limbo by the $2 price requirement on TCGPlayer - if you look at buyable foil copies, the list is very short. There are hardly any vendors carrying four or more (I am actually one in full transparency). Additionally, its current bulk status (foils are available sub-$1) makes it a nice buylist play should any amount of new demand drive that price up over $2.

Target Buy:

  • Ignore nonfoils as there is too much supply and will not be enough demand to offset it
  • Near mint foils thrown into your cart for $0.50 to $1 to top-off free shipping on TCGPlayer (or other vendor sites) is a nice option --> it is worth paying a small premium such as TCG Direct to guarantee the NM condition as very few of those are available (note: I have seven LP copies listed which were all originally listed as NM by other vendors)

Target Exit:

  • Foils (NM) --> $3 or a buylist out; turnaround time = 3-6 months to be safe as this one could take more than just Niv-Mizzet Reborn to push over the hump

Wrapping Up

I am a big fan of Niv-Mizzet and of dragons in general, so take all of my cards to consider with a grain-of-salt and do your own research to make sure you agree.

That said, I do believe Niv-Mizzet Reborn will be a general worth watching in EDH circles throughout the summer and into the latter part of 2019. He has consistently ranked #2 on the top weekly commanders list shown on the EDHREC home page and top 5 on the overall EDHREC commanders list. This tells me people are definitely brewing around Niv

The buzz around EDH as a whole is tame right now because of competing priorities, Standard/Modern hype, and other community news taking the spotlight. But, I believe Niv-Mizzet Reborn will continue to rise in popularity, especially when EDH circles start to focus and brew again, and I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually dethroned Feather for most popular War of the Spark general.

As always, you can catch me on the QS Insider Discord or on Twitter (@ChiStyleGaming) with reactions, commentary, or miscellaneous banter! Thanks for the read!

Insider: Modern Horizons Speculation

Posted on by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers! It feels like forever between visits now that I've switched to doing articles every other week, but life gets busy, so I definitely like having a bigger time gap in between articles. So, we know very little about Modern Horizons and I imagine we'll start seeing more spoilers starting any day now. We only have two spoilers for the set so far:

We've also been told that nothing in the set is currently Modern legal, but there will be reprints from past sets. This means we will see pre-Modern reprints, though there is no guarantee they will be cards that see play in Legacy. We also know they will not be from the Reserved List. However, that begs the question; what are the most valuable non-Reserved List pre-Modern cards?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Imperial Seal

Imperial Seal is number one on this list, even with the somewhat recent judge printing. I actually think this could be a good option for the set. While it is a powerful tutor, it is sorcery speed and is actually card disadvantage. I don't think it would break Modern. I imagine it would most likely show up in the Modern Ad Nauseum decks or Grishoalbrand style decks as these are Modern's two black based combo decks, though it would obviously be a great addition to the Death's Shadow decks as well. The set will need a big name reprint to help justify the box cost.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zodiac Dragon

Zodiac Dragon is another Portal Three Kingdoms card with a high price tag, but in this case, a reprint would absolutely tank the value. Dragon collectors would be thrilled, except those who shelled out $200+ for their copy of the P3K version. This is the type of card that would likely be $8-$12 if it were reprinted and because of that, it would make a bad "flagship" card to sell boxes, though it could still show up in the set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Tutor

Grim Tutor would be the other "flagship black tutor" they could include to sell boxes. This one would likely be even safer for Modern thanks to its sorcery speed and costing 3 mana. The danger here would be that like Zodiac Dragon above, this card's value is heavily influenced by its extreme rarity; Starter 1999 was not a set people were racing to crack packs of. A reprint in Modern Horizons, even at mythic, would likely make this a $20-$30 card. I would expect it to follow a similar trajectory to Imperial Recruiter which went from being a $340+ card to around $120 with the reprints available for under $30.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Crypt

Mana Crypt is a card I feel I can say with almost absolute certainty will NOT be in Modern Horizons. WoTC has banned all the free mana rocks save Mox Opal and even that one is often described as being near the line. If Chrome Mox  is too good for Modern, then Mana Crypt would be insane. All this being said, I do expect we'll see another reprint of this card before too long, just not one that would put it into Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force of Will

Force of Will would definitely be an interesting addition to modern. I do think that control decks could use a bit more help against some of the degenerate combo decks of the format, however, I would be concerned that adding Force of Will might simply be pushing Modern into being more of a diet version of Legacy. I think WotC wants to keep Modern a unique format. The recent price jump of FoW makes me think that some people are speculating on its inclusion, as there certainly hasn't been any major Legacy format changes to justify the 30%+ jump we've seen in the past couple of months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ravages of War

Ravages of War is the Portal Three Kingdoms version of Armageddon, yet thanks entirely to Commander it commands a price tag of over $100. However, that's entirely due to scarcity and any non-special reprint would bring the price crashing down likely to $15-$25. It's also important to note that WotC has definitely seemed to shift away from any mass land destruction spells, as they tend to lead to a lot of "non-games", which would be a bad direction to push a format you want to grow. For that reason alone, I think this card is very unlikely to be included in Modern Horizons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Capture of Jingzhou

Capture of Jingzhou is the Portal Three Kingdoms version of Time Warp. We have Time Warp already legal in the format, and there is a tier 2 deck that tries to go infinite with extra turn effects. This would definitely fit well into that deck, though I don't think a bit more consistency would make it tier 1. As with most P3K cards, a large scale reprint would tank the value hard and it would likely fall into the $20-$30 range, similar to Imperial Recruiter. This is definitely a card that could be included in Modern Horizons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Warrior's Oath

Warrior's Oath is the Portal 3 Kingdoms version of Final Fortune. Interestingly, despite three different reprintings, none of them were in Modern sets. They could also choose to print Last Chance which is the original Portal reprint of Final Fortune, though it's a lot less valuable. Honestly, any of these three versions of the same card could show up in Modern Horizons and I don't know what effect, if any, it would have on the format. We have seen some combo decks based around Chance for Glory so having an additional option might make these builds more viable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Riding the Dilu Horse

Riding the Dilu Horse's value is entirely based on it being a rare in P3K. I truly doubt we will ever see Horsemanship as a mechanic return, so again, I can say with almost complete certainty this card will not be in Modern Horizons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Drain

Mana Drain is likely too powerful for modern. Currently, Modern doesn't even have regular Counterspell so it seems unlikely to get its far better big brother. If it did, we'd likely see a resurgence in Mono-Blue Tron decks, and we don't need that in Modern. Counterspell on the other hand seems plausible, but definitely not Mana Drain.

Conclusion

There you have it, a somewhat extensive list of the most valuable non-Modern legal and non-Reserved List cards. As you may have noticed, a fair number of them are only valuable because they have a single printing from Portal Three Kingdoms so any reprint would tank almost all of their value. I do think we will see at least one card on this list in Modern Horizons as the set will need a pretty expensive "flagship" card. Here are some examples from the past:

  • Modern Masters and Modern Masters 2015 - Tarmogoyf
  • Eternal Masters - Force of Will and Jace, the Mind Sculptor
  • Iconic Masters - Mana Drain
  • Modern Masters 2017 - Liliana, of the Veil and Snapcaster Mage
  • Masters 25 - Imperial Recruiter and Jace, the Mind Sculptor

WoTC knows that to sell a premium set at a premium price they have to put at least one big chase card in it. There are plenty of other possible lower-priced reprint options I could see being in the set including the other portal tutors, Goblin Settler, Scroll Rack just to name a few. Did I miss any obvious ones? Please feel free to comment below or reach out to me in the Insider Discord chat.

Testing Punishing Fire: Quantitative Data

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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And now it's time for everyone's favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. With 500 matches of Jund with and without Punishing Fire under my belt, I have developed a very strong opinion on unbanning the card. Today, I will reveal the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these data are meant to explore the impact of the tested card, but I can't test every single impact, metagame shift, or other permutation that could arise.

If you're just joining us, be sure to first read the Experimental Setup for this project.

Boilerplate Disclaimers

Contained are the results from my experiment. It is entirely possible that repetition will yield different results. This project models the effect that the banned card would have on the metagame as it stood when the experiment began. My result does not seek to be definitive, but rather provide a starting point for discussions on whether the card should be unbanned.

Meaning of Significance

When I refer to statistical significance, I really mean probability; specifically, the probability that the differences between a set of results are the result of the trial, and not of normal variance. Statistical tests are used to evaluate whether normal variance is behind the result, or if the experiment caused a noticeable change in result. This is expressed in confidence intervals determined by the p-value from the statistical test. In other words, statistical testing determines how confident researchers are that their results came from the test and not from chance. The assumption is typically "no change," or a null hypothesis of H=0.

If a test yields p > .01, the test is not significant, as we are less than 90% certain that the result isn't variance. If p < .01, then the result is significant at the 90% level. This is considered weakly significant and insufficiently conclusive by most academic standards; however, it can be acceptable when the n-value of the data set is low. While significant results are possible as few as 30 entries, it takes huge disparities to produce significant results, so sometimes 90% confidence is all that is achievable.

p < .05 is the 95% confidence interval, which is considered a significant result. It means that we are 95% certain that any variation in the data is the result of the experiment. Therefore, this is the threshold for accepting that the experiment is valid and models the real effect of the treatment on reality. Should p < .01, the result is significant at the 99% interval, which is as close to certainty as possible. When looking at the results, check the p-value to see if the data is significant.

Significance is highly dependent on the n-value of the data: in this case, how many games were recorded. The lower the n, the less likely it is that the result will be significant irrespective of the magnitude of the change. With an n of 30, a 10% change will be much less significant than that same change with n=1000. This is why the individual results frequently aren't significant, even when the overall result is very significant.

Overall Matchup Data

As a reminder and for those who've never seen one of these tests before, I played 500 total matches, with 250 per deck. I switched decks each match to level out any effect skill gains had on the data. Play/draw alternated each match, so both decks spent the same time on the draw and play. The test and control Jund lists can be found here.

As always, the overall match data comes first, and then I'll get into each matchup's results. Normally, I also include bonus data and interesting factoids, but I did record anything I thought was worth relating this time.

  • Total Control Wins: 119 (47.6%)
  • Total Test Wins: 127 (50.8%)

The data shows that adding Punishing Fire to Jund did not have a significant effect on its win percentage. p > .1 by a good margin, so the result is not even slightly significant. This means that the variation in the sample is most likely the result of normal variance and not my experiment.

I expected Punishing Fire to have a limited impact on Jund's win percentage because it is a very limited card. Far less efficient than Lightning Bolt, Fire is useful only because it is reusable. For that to be relevant, the game has to go long. The attraction has always been machine-gunning down opposing creatures, so I didn't expect there to be much effect outside of the creature matchups. Therefore, it would be on a deck-by-deck basis that the real impact became apparent. Of note, the smaller n-value for these results increases the threshold of significance.

Deck By Deck

Before getting into specifics, I have to note that actually testing the combo proved tricky, as there are two effects associated with playing Punishing Fire. The first: thanks to the aforementioned quirks of running the card, choices matter a lot more than previously. There was a lot of tension regarding which creature I pointed which kill spell at, as Fire is less mana-efficient than Lightning Bolt. My test deck had 2 Fatal Push, 3 Assassin's Trophy, and Liliana's downtick to kill creatures with 3 or more power. This meant I had considerable incentive to avoid killing anything that might be Fireable, which led to some odd play patterns.

The second: Punishing Fire is not a self-contained card. The only reason it has ever been threatening is Grove of the Burnwillows. Needing to run a full set of Groves puts some manageable strain on a deck's manabase, especially if that deck normally runs on fetches and shock lands. I compensated by running more black sources and no Stomping Ground.

What can't be compensated for is Grove giving opposing players life. While technically a positive since it triggers Fire (enabling the combo), if I didn't have Fire and needed the colored mana, the extra life quickly added up. When Tron was green/red and used Grove, the extra life didn't matter because Tron's creatures are huge. Jund's aren't so big, and in tight races that extra life might become a factor. Fortunately, it didn't come up too often.

UW Control

The UW versus Jund matchup is about attrition. Jund is designed to trade cards at value or better, while UW snows opponents under with card advantage. The matchup hinges on Jund sticking a threat that UW can't remove before that card advantage overcomes the attrition. Dark Confidant is Jund's best creature for this reason.

  • Total Control Wins: 25 (50%)
  • Total Test Wins: 33 (66%)

p > .05 by a very small margin. This means it's weakly significant. Because of the size of the data set, it would have taken one more test win or a control loss to make it absolutely significant.

I wasn't expecting the UW matchup to improve, since it doesn't run many creatures. However, Fire meant that UW could never actually grind out Jund on card advantage, especially in game 1. As long as Jund had a Fire in its graveyard, it had a threat and an answer in one card. Instead, game one was about baiting UW to use a Field of Ruin on not-Grove. If that happened, UW could realistically never win, because Fire would eventually kill all its win conditions. Teferi cannot survive repeated turns of Fire, and if Jund found two Fires, which was guaranteed in a long game, then Celestial Colonnade and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are also doomed.

This meant it was never possible game one for UW to beat the test deck through Teferi loops and sitting back; it had to take the initiative. Jund won the games that went extremely long as a result. The sideboard games were a different story, since the sideboard creatures (especially Geist of Saint Traft) and Rest in Peace completely alter the matchup dynamic by reducing Fire's effectiveness.

Mono-Green Tron

Tron and Jund have the longest-standing predator/prey relationship in Modern. Jund's been struggling against Tron since the beginning of Modern, and while Jund's tools have gotten better, Tron has adapted to obviate them. Thoughtseize remains critical for Jund, which was bad news for the test deck.

  • Total Control Wins: 24 (48%)
  • Total Test Wins: 19 (38%)

p > .1 means the results are not significant in any way, and are therefore not the result of the test.

Not surprisingly, incremental grinding over a long game was not very good against Tron. Fire never kills anything, and since it doesn't do as much damage as Bolt, it's not that useful racing, either. Also, Tron has Relic of Progenitus maindeck.

Bant Spirits

Spirits versus Jund is a strange matchup because the creature removal is almost an afterthought. The Drogskol Captain hexproof lock is devastating in game 1, and since Bant Spirits is all about finding and engaging that lock, it can be very hard for Jund to interact. Hand disruption is therefore Jund's most important disruption.

  • Total Control Wins: 25 (50%)
  • Total Test Wins: 25 (50%)

There was absolutely no difference between the test and control deck, so unsurprisingly the data isn't significant.

Fire doesn't alter Spirits chances of finding the lock naturally or via Collected Company, so it had the same odds as Bolt of being relevant. The maindeck Geists were key.

Humans

I expected Humans to be hit hard by Fire. It doesn't play any land interaction and most creatures have less than three toughness. Its saving graces are the disruption package, particularly Meddling Mage. However, Jund plays so many answers that it should be able to overwhelm Mage.

  • Total Control Wins: 26 (52%)
  • Total Test Wins: 32 (64%)

The data narrowly misses being weakly significant, at p > .1. Again, one fewer control win or another test win and it would have been weakly significant.

I was not expecting this result. The assumption was that Fire combo decimates creature decks. The problem was that Jund had trouble assembling the combo reliably in time to crush Humans. Also, because of the aforementioned tension with removal spells, I couldn't just kill a turn one Noble Hierarch or Champion of the Parish every game. This let Humans start snowballing, and made games harder. When the combo did come together early, it was crushing. When not, Humans had the time it needed to be Humans, and the removal proved stretched too thin to keep up.

Ironworks

Ironworks was capable of winning on turn three. It was also primarily made up of cantrips. Thus, Jund was never safe, no matter how much hand disruption it had. The only hope was to stick threats, race, and pray. Thanks to Engineered Explosives, Scavenging Ooze wasn't effective disruption. Post-board Surgical Extraction was decent, but not outstanding.

  • Total Control Wins: 19 (38%)
  • Total Test Wins: 18 (36%)

The data is not significant, which is unsurprising since the control and test are only one match apart.

Just as with Tron, Fire didn't do anything critical to the matchup, so it had no real effect.

A Wrinkle...

The matchup data shows that Punishing Fire did not have a meaningful effect on Jund's overall win percentage. Since it could not muster a significant result against Humans, the matchup where it should have been most devastating, this would suggest that it is an unban candidate. The supposed machine-gun effect appears to be overblown.

However, that isn't the whole story. This was the most miserable test I've ever run. There are a number of gameplay and intangible reasons that I'll get to next week, but they pale in comparison to this test taking longer than any other. I started testing in early November and didn't finish until March. This was not because I had to work around availability gaps. The individual games took measurably longer than ever before, and dragged the whole process out. This isn't entirely unexpected given experience from Legacy, but in Modern, it suggests that Fire is more similar to Sensei's Diving Top than to Splinter Twin or Chrome Mox.

...In Time

I stopped using MTGO for these tests when the chess clock altered results. A player timing out is not the same as him losing the game. I stopped timing the matches altogether when draws required rematches and lengthened the test. We play every game until its conclusion, and don't concede until the game is actually lost; being 0% to win isn't quite the same as actually losing. The former means that UW is up too many cards to plausibly fight through. The latter means they're upticking Jace, and you don't and will never have an answer. The exception is that as soon as combo decks demonstrate a deterministic loop, we concede.

This meant that games dragged on because Jund was rarely actually out. It could always draw another Grove or Fire and work its way back in. It was also rare for the other deck to be out, since a single Fire and Grove aren't much on their own. As a result, the games with Firey Jund took longer than the control games. I suspected this would be the case during exploratory testing, and kept track of how long each match took.

  • Average Control Match Time: 27.28 minutes
  • Average Test Match Time: 31.97 minutes

The test matches took roughly five minutes longer on average. This may not seem like much, but I want to emphasize that these are the average times, between widely different types of deck. As you can see in the result printout below, there was considerable fluctuation in the data.

The p value of the time data is incredibly small, so it is strongly significant at the 99% level. As an explanation, when internal variance is very high, the threshold for significance drops.

UW Control

UW Control takes a while to win, and the matchup is incredibly grindy. Naturally, it takes a lot of time.

  • Average Control Match Time: 31.17 minutes
  • Average Test Match Time: 40.71 minutes
  • Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 2
  • Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 7

The data is significant at the 99% level, p < .01. Fire and Grove's inclusion did increase the length of the matchup by the observed amount.

Again, Jund was never out of game 1; so as long as it still had a Grove in-deck, it could win the game. That forced UW to try and race Jund, and maindeck UW's not good at racing. The longest match I played in the whole test was Test Match 38, a ~95 minute epic where the roughly hour-long game one was decided by UW decking itself. Jund actually lost that match, because games 2-3 UW slammed down and protected Geist on turn three.

Mono-Green Tron

Tron games are generally fast, since Tron's trying to do its thing turn three every game. If it does, the game is almost always over shortly afterward. If it doesn't, the game still needs to end quickly, or Tron will find what it was missing.

  • Average Control Match Time: 23.78 minutes
  • Average Test Match Time: 26.05 minutes
  • Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 0
  • Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 0

The data is weakly significant, at p < .01. The result is not conclusive, but also cannot be discounted. The time that Jund spends durdling with Grove and Fire seems to add up even in matches where it's not a priority.

Bant Spirits

Spirits games are ones of extremes. Either Spirits quickly locks Jund out, Jund guts Spirits's hand and then board, or we see a prolonged grindfest were the last threat wins.

  • Average Control Match Time: 27.04 minutes
  • Average Test Match Time: 30.98 minutes
  • Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 1
  • Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 2

The data is strongly significant, at p < .05. It is very close to 99%, but that's gravey compared to being 95% confidant. Normally, Jund runs out of removal before Spirits runs out of creatures. However, that couldn't happen game one, so the grinding stretched on and on.

Humans

Humans is naturally a fast deck. Jund is seeking to string out the match. This typically means that Humans' wins are very fast, while Jund's take a long time.

  • Average Control Match Time: 25.4 minutes
  • Average Test Match Time: 29.92 minutes
  • Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 0
  • Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 1

The data is strongly significant, at p < .01. This test yielded a lot of 99% confidence intervals. The tendency of Jund's wins to take longer got worse. This was exacerbated by Grove's life prolonging a number of normal games and costing Jund several races.

Ironworks

Ironworks was the most extreme individual match. Ironworks is capable of demonstrating an unbreakable loop on turn three, but actually getting to that point can take awhile. This matchup had the second most matches go past normal round time and the two shortest matches. The shortest two were eight-minute stompings, one win for control Jund and one loss for Firey Jund, both times after the loser mulliganed to oblivion both games.

  • Average Control Match Time: 29.02 minutes
  • Average Test Match Time: 32.2 minutes
  • Control Matches 50 minutes or longer: 2
  • Test Matches 50 minutes or longer: 5

The data is weakly significant, at p < 0.1.

In fairness to Fire, not all the increase in long matches was its fault. Sometimes, Ironworks can't assemble an actual loop, and has to burn through its deck like Eggs to win.

Whole Story

The end result of my data collection is that there's no evidence that Punishing Fire would boost Jund to dangerous levels. It didn't impact any matchup in a significant way. However, it did have a strongly significant impact on match length, giving it implications for tournament logistics. This means there's a lot more to Fire than meets the eye, and power alone isn't sufficient in discussing whether it is an unban consideration. The intangibles are critical in assessing the card. Join me next week for those qualitative results and my conclusions from this test.

A Deep Dive into Ice Age

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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It seems inevitable. A friend, co-worker, or random visitor to your LGS mentions they have a stack of Magic cards from when they used to play years ago. If you’re like me, the first question you ask is, “what years did you play?”

“I don’t remember. Maybe 1994 or 1995?”

Your mouth starts to water. There’s a potential this person has Dual Lands, Legends, and The Dark cards in their collection. They could also have stacks of Revised Demonic Tutors, Lightning Bolts, and Sol Rings in their collection.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lightning Bolt

You arrange a date, get together, and eagerly start sifting through their collection only to find a stack of Fallen Empires, Homelands, and Ice Age cards. Bummer.

There’s no need to despair, however. In fact, there are some components to these sets that are very appreciable, if not profitable. In past articles, I’ve written about the merits of Fourth Edition and Homelands. This week I want to touch on another under-appreciated set: Ice Age.

Ice Age: Fast Facts

Before jumping into the finance of Ice Age (which is more interesting than you’d think), here are some quick facts to provide background to this set.

  • Ice Age is Magic’s sixth expansion and was released early June 1995. It came out shortly after Magic’s first explosion in popularity, which is why so many older players have a stack of it in their bulk.
  • The popularity of Magic during this time led to the massive print run for this set. Crystal Keep has numbers for Ice Age, but the site was published before Ice Age was taken off the printing press. All we know is that there are at least 202,000 copies of each Ice Age rare, 606,000 of each uncommon, and 2,047,000 of each common. Those numbers are gigantic!
  • Ice Age contains 383 cards, with an interesting split of 121 rares, 121 uncommons, and 121 commons. This distribution means opening a given rare in a booster pack is much harder while opening certain commons and uncommons easier. Contrast this with the distribution in War of the Spark: 53 rares, 80 uncommons, and 101 commons.
  • Ice Age was the first expansion to have foil wrappers—finally, boosters couldn’t be searched anymore! It was also the first expansion to have a prerelease, in Toronto, from June 2-4, 1995.
  • There are some amusing misprints in the set, though none are readily obvious. For example, Johtull Wurm refers to a creature named Johtull Worm in its text box. Obviously, this is a misprint, but imagine arguing with your friends that the -2/-1 fizzles because there are no Johtull Worms in play! Another funny one is on Balduvian Shaman, where the first word, “permanantly” is misspelled!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Johtull Wurm
Reser

There was an error retrieving a chart for Balduvian Shaman

Onto the Finance Part

Enough history lessons—I’ll shift focus to the relevant financial information about this set. After all, many of us have dug through Ice Age bulk at one time or another. The print run of the set was so huge that you can still purchase booster boxes, 24 years after printing, for $450.

Despite this, there are still some important facts you should know when it comes to Ice Age. I’ll concede there are not many valuable cards in the set—but did you know that Card Kingdom has 123 Ice Age cards on their buylist? The cards on their list ranges from Necropotence, the card they pay highest for ($5.50) all the way down to Yavimaya Gnats, for which they offer $0.06. In fact 44 of the 123 cards on their buylist—36—are commons and uncommons. Ten of these cards buylist for at least a buck in store credit (Dance of the Dead, Glacial Chasm, Snow-covered Mountain, Swords to Plowshares, Snow-covered Island, Pyroblast, Zuran Orb, Mystic Remora, Nature's Lore, and Fyndhorn Elves.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dance of the Dead

If that doesn’t motivate you to pick through your Ice Age chaff, maybe this will: there are 50 Reserved List cards in Ice Age! Nearly half the rares in the set are on the Reserved List! Granted, most of these cards are terrible or ridiculously confusing, but it still represents a stack of cards that will never see a reprint. Sorry, Ice Cauldron fans—the copies out there now are the only ones that will ever exist.

As for the cards that are playable, there are a few with serious upside. Illusions of Grandeur is a Reserved List card famous for its combo with Donate. The deck known as “Trix” was a popular Extended list that sought to give opponents control of the blue enchantment; when they couldn’t afford that crazy cumulative upkeep, they’d lose 20 life (and therefore the game). I don’t see Illusions of Grandeur making a sudden comeback, but the iconic card will climb gradually over time. And you never know when WOTC may print a superior version of Donate and cause a momentary spike in the Reserved List card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Illusions of Grandeur

Altar of Bone is another Reserved List card worth a second look. This card is sort of like a vastly inferior version of Survival of the Fittest. Except Survival is a $100 card and Altar is a $5. Card. Altar doesn’t really see much play, but I wonder if it’s one new card away from becoming broken. At just two mana, it could even break into Legacy should the right combo be printed. If that never happens, your downside is still basically zero.

Want to stay away from the Reserved List? Take a look at Dance of the Dead. It’s a pseudo-Animate Dead with a minor drawback. Except Animate Dead has been reprinted and Dance of the Dead hasn’t, probably because the card is so complex. I mean…look at that oracle text! Yuck!

“Enchant creature card in a graveyard. When Dance of the Dead enters the battlefield, if it’s on the battlefield, it loses “enchant creature card in a graveyard” and gains “enchant creature put onto the battlefield with Dance of the Dead.” Put enchanted creature card onto the battlefield tapped under your control and attach Dance of the Dead to it. When Dance of the Dead leaves the battlefield, that creature’s controller sacrifices it. Enchanted creature gets +1/+1 and doesn’t untap during its controller’s untap step. At the beginning of the upkeep of enchanted creature’s controller, that player may pay 1B. If the player does, untap that creature.”

Lastly, I like two cumulative upkeep cards for their upside potential: Mystic Remora and Glacial Chasm. The former was never reprinted in paper and the latter was reprinted only once, in From the Vault: Realms. Both see play in different formats: Mystic Remora is popular in Commander and Glacial Chasm is played in Legacy. As long as they dodge reprint in Modern Horizons, which I suppose is not a guarantee, then these should see gradual upside over time.

Wrapping It Up

At first glance, Ice Age is an over-printed, under-demanded set. Who wants to open a booster pack only to find their rare is Winter's Chill? But despite its apparent ubiquity, there are still many reasons not to skip over bulk Ice Age cards. The set is filled with commons and uncommons that can be buylisted for above bulk. It also has fifty Reserved List cards, which are always worth tossing in a separate box. Don’t forget set symbols did not connote rarity back in 1995, so you may find Reserved List rares in amongst the commons and uncommons.

Most importantly, there are relevant cards in the set. The Pain Lands are played in Eldrazi lists and would be far more valuable if they hadn’t been reprinted so much. Mystic Remora is the 25th most included blue card according to EDH REC’s database. While some of these lists may be aged, I suspect it’s still an easy inclusion for its card-drawing power. Zuran Orb and Glacial Chasm are nothing to scoff at, and both are uncommons. And let’s not forget about one of the most notorious cards ever to be printed, which first appeared in Ice Age: Brainstorm.

With cards like these littered throughout the set, Ice Age may actually be one of the more enjoyable sets to pick. And while you’re digging for these gems, you can revel in the craziness of some of this set’s cards. Game of Chaos, Demonic Consultation, Marton Stromgald, Chromatic Armor…who came up with these cards?! I can’t guarantee you’ll make a ton of money picking through Ice Age bulk, but you may just find some surprisingly whacky cards that give you a smile!

…

Sigbits

  • While it doesn’t boast a high buylist price right now, Demonic Consultation was bought out not long ago. It’s an instant spell that costs one mana that lets you deck yourself—this combines well with cards that win you the game if your library is empty. While nothing came of it, you never know when this one could spike again. It’s also viable in casual play and functions as a budget Demonic Tutor.
  • It seems like foils and Masterpieces are all over Card Kingdom’s hotlist these days, headlined by foil Force of Will ($300). Innistrad foil Liliana of the Veil is also up there ($125) along with Mythic Edition Teferi, Hero of Dominaria ($170).
  • Worldwake Jace, the Mind Sculptor is seeing buylist levels I’ve not seen in a long time. Currently, Card Kingdom pays $115 for the card on their hotlist. There may even be further upside if the Planeswalker sees a rise in play once Modern Horizons is released.

Two Weeks In: War of the Spark Tech Review

Posted on by Jordan Boisvert

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It's been half a month since War of the Spark went live on Magic Online, and we're already seeing the myriad effects it's having on Modern—heck, on all non-rotating formats. But of course, being Modern Nexus, we'll focus on just the one!

While I enjoy the Friday writing slot, it occasionally has its detriments. In this case, other content creators have gotten to the Online decklists first, and mostly covered the breakout decks. They've understandably omitted some of the finer details, or smaller tech updates to existing strategies. We'll cover those and a few under-the-radar brews in today's piece.

Standout War Decks

For those of you not up on their reading, yesterday's article from Adam Yurchick does a great job of reviewing the new strategies that have Modern buzzing. They are, in list form:

  • Coretapper Control
  • Mono-Red Prison
  • Mono-White Legends
  • Niv-Mizzet Reborn
  • Finale Vizier*
  • Finale Phoenix*
  • Immense Arcanist
  • UW Narset*
  • Pitch Blue
  • Time Raveler Tempo*
  • Vivian Pod*

The decks marked with an asterisk denote strategies that have not quite proven themselves yet, or aren't so different from existing decks in Modern. I've still included them in the list so as not to omit anything from Yurchick's piece.

Pitch Blue strikes me as the most exciting deck in the collection, wielding both Disrupting Shoal and Day's Undoing alongside Narset, Parter of Veils to refill on cards while stripping opponents of their resources. You're welcome, Modern Nexus readers!

Finally, two higher-profile strategies from War are Neoform Griselbrand and a new spin on UW Control featuring the Teferi-Knowledge Pool combo. I don't think the former is close to as format-warping as early pundits always seem to claim when a new combo deck rolls around, and the latter seems to me like a worse version of straight UW Control, although 1-2 Pool could become a solid tech option should the deck, for some reason, decide it wants 4 Teferi, Time Raveler at some point in the future.

Tech Updates

While less flashy, the subtle tech upgrades received by many existing Modern decks are just as critical to the metagame's new shape. Blast Zone stands out as the most splashable War card, finding its way into Mono-Red Prison, Dredge, GR Eldrazi, and UW Control among the less obvious homes. And Izzet Phoenix continues its apparent cooldown, putting a single copy in the most recent Modern event's high placings and occupying a mere 4 slots in the last Challenge's Top 32. Innovation hasn't totally escaped that deck, either, with some lists adopting Finale of Promise and others running Dovin, Hand of Control in the sideboard.

Ashiok, Dream Render as Multi-Purpose Role Player

I slammed the new walkers as being pulled in too many strategic directions to see much competitive play, and continue to eat my foot as case-in-point example Ashiok, Dream Render continuously pops up in blue decks. Its two abilities are apparently relevant enough in Modern that combining them makes it a potent tool for many matchups.

Grixis Shadow, by ANDREAS_MUELLER (6th, Modern Challenge #11861754)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Gurmag Angler
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Street Wraith

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

2 Dismember
3 Fatal Push
1 Lightning Bolt
4 Stubborn Denial
2 Temur Battle Rage
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

1 Faithless Looting
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Serum Visions
4 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Island
4 Polluted Delta
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Steam Vents
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave
60 Cards

Sideboard

3 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Fatal Push
2 Abrade
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Collective Brutality
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Kolaghan's Command
2 Ravenous Trap

UW Midrange, by GODS_SHADOW (8th, Modern Challenge #11861754)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
2 Teferi, Time Raveler

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere
2 Search for Azcanta

Instants

4 Cryptic Command
2 Logic Knot
4 Path to Exile
2 Spell Snare

Sorceries

2 Oust
4 Serum Visions

Lands

2 Blast Zone
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
2 Ghost Quarter
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Island
2 Plains

Sideboard

2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Dovin's Veto
2 Gideon of the Trials
3 Rest in Peace
3 Stony Silence
3 Supreme Verdict

A repeatable Tormod's Crypt is nothing to sneeze at against graveyard decks, and Ashiok even boasts self-mill capabilities, as the exile clause only affects opponents. But the real winner is its static ability, which affects most Modern decks by virtue of everyone utilizing searching; the decks without fetchlands tend to be digging up critical components like Urza's Mine anyway.

Neoform, but Not for Griselbrand

While Neoform's loudest applications thus far have been with the 7/7, the card is starting to pop up in different shells.

Neoform Vizier, by ZIPPIESTBARD (5-0)

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Devoted Druid
3 Duskwatch Recruiter
1 Eternal Witness
1 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
1 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Llanowar Elves
4 Noble Hierarch
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
1 Tireless Tracker
4 Vizier of Remedies
1 Walking Ballista

Planeswalkers

1 Vivien, Champion of the Wilds

Sorceries

4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
4 Postmortem Lunge

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Dryad Arbor
3 Forest
3 Horizon Canopy
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Plains
3 Razorverge Thicket
1 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Chameleon Colossus
2 Deputy of Detention
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
3 Path to Exile
1 Reflector Mage
3 Unified Will
2 Worship

Eldritch Evolution and Postmortem Lunge are no strangers to Vizier combo, as they both put combo pieces into play. But generally, they are run in smaller numbers alongside sets of Chord of Calling or Collected Company. Neoform Vizier maxes out on each sorcery and supplements them with Neoform, an Eldritch Evolution that's one critical mana cheaper.

That mana's a game-changer when it comes to casting multiple spells in a turn. Neoformcan tribute a creature to search up a combo piece, then pilots can cast Lunge their tributed creature with the spare mana to go off early. This play is also possible with Eldritch, and even works with multiple creatures of the same mana cost in that case. But as it costs more, it's slower to execute. In any case, the Postmortem plan becomes hyper-reliable with so many functional evolutions in the deck, so maxing out on each piece makes sense at this stage in the deckbuilding process.

UG Evolve, by CAVEDAN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Cloudfin Raptor
4 Experiment One
3 Pelt Collector
4 Young Wolf
2 Sidisi's Faithful
4 Strangleroot Geist
4 Voice of Resurgence
1 Avatar of the Resolute
1 Deputy of Detention
1 Evolution Sage
1 Renegade Rallier

Instants

3 Pongify
3 Rapid Hybridization

Sorceries

4 Neoform

Lands

4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
1 Hallowed Fountain
3 Horizon Canopy
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Aven Mindcensor
2 Damping Sphere
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
1 Evolutionary Leap
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Geist of Saint Traft
1 Kataki, War's Wage
2 Knight of Autumn
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
1 Path to Exile
1 Reflector Mage
2 Scavenging Ooze

From the man who brought us the Niv-Mizzet Reborn deck mentioned above comes UG Evolve, a strategy format newcomers have wanted to work for as long as I can remember. The only War creature here is Evolution Sage, which increases the counter count on controlled creatures. Evolve's other buggers either come down cheap and grow larger as the board develops, or create large bodies to enable the evolving threats. Undying creatures work especially well for this, including honorary Undying creature Voice of Resurgence, and especially alongside Pongify to blow them up at will and net a beefy 3/3 in the process. Following Raptor with Young Wolf and hitting Wolf with Pongify, for instance, grows Raptor to 3 power for its first attack.

The new set primarily contributes to Evolve via Neoform, which unlike similar cards such as Eldritch Evolution, is cheap enough at two mana to wield aggressively. Instead of trading creatures for a 3/3, as Pongify does, Neoform chains them into in-deck creatures, giving the deck a toolbox aspect and helping it access Evolution Sage. This new piece of tech may be what the deck needed to at last become a solid Tier 3 contender in Modern.

Meta Slayers

We're also seeing some decks that take advantage of the direction Modern's metagame has been heading lately by employing surgical plans of attack.

Just Two Goyfs for Me, Thanks

Zoo is far from a new strategy in Modern, but it doesn't have close to the pedigree it used to. JUANPABLOALCALDE had something to say about Zoo's fall from grace, fleshing out a suite of Wild Nacatls with some of Modern's most potent hosers, tension with Tarmogoyf be damned.

Antimeta Zoo, by JUANPABLOALCALDE (5-0)

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Narnam Renegade
4 Grim Lavamancer
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
2 Tarmogoyf
3 Magus of the Moon
1 Knight of Autumn

Artifacts

3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dromoka's Command
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

3 Tribal Flames
2 Declaration in Stone

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
1 Blood Crypt
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Knight of Autumn
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Relic of Progenitus
4 Ancient Grudge
2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Gaddock Teeg
3 Ravenous Trap

Two Goyfs in a Zoo deck? What cruel brew is this? Anitmeta Zoo prefers to disrupt opponents with hosers than rely extensively on the sheer bulk of Tarmogoyf. It still includes the beater in some capacity; there are few better ways to chase a deceased Wild Nacatl, after all, and Antimeta Zoo runs plenty of card types to keep the Lhurgoyf nice and large. But it's got different priorities, its two-drop slot occupied by other beasts.

In today's metagame, that beast is Eidolon of the Great Revel. Hosing myriad combo decks as well as the established top dog, Izzet Phoenix, Eidolon puts the hurt on anyone chaining cantrips. Grim Lavamancer is also run at 4 here, providing free wins against small creature decks. Magus of the Moon rounds out the disruptive creature suite by punishing greedy manabases and Tron. Should these creatures prove ineffective in a given matchup, they can be looted away to Smuggler's Copter, or else used to crew the vehicle.

Besides Tribal Flames making an appearance as a closer and removal spell, Antimeta Zoo packs Declaration in Stone, a good indication that its pilot knew what he wanted to beat. Kitchen Finks, Prized Amalgam, and Arclight Phoenix are all great targets for the instant, and Declaration makes sense over Path given the deck's many Moon effects.

...And Keep Your Fetchlands, Too

As Modern's cardpool increases, players discover new color combinations that can work. Fatal Push, for example, enabled midrange and control decks outside of red or white, the other colors housing cheap removal options. This next deck takes that principle to the extreme, making the case that blue already has all the tools it could need.

Mono-Blue Thing, by BENNYHILLZ (5-0)

Creatures

4 Thing in the Ice
4 Snapcaster Mage

Enchantments

3 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Cryptic Command
1 Logic Knot
2 Mana Leak
4 Opt
1 Remand
1 Spell Pierce
2 Spell Snare
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Thought Scour
1 Unsummon

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
2 Set Adrift

Lands

4 Blast Zone
1 Field of Ruin
17 Island

Sideboard

2 Surgical Extraction
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Devastation Tide
1 Dispel
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Negate
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Vedalken Shackles
2 Vendilion Clique

BENNYHILLZ is known as one of UW Control's earliest proponents, and here he re-invents the wheel again with Mono-Blue Thing. His is a control deck ditching traditional sweepers for the creature that single-handedly allows Izzet Phoenix to tangle with other creature decks, and swapping out fancy manlands for a full set of Blast Zone. The above list marks BENNYHILLZ's second published 5-0 on this list.

The biggest drawback to mono-blue has always been its lack of removal options; we've seen URx, URx, and UWx succeed in Modern for this reason. But between Thing in the Ice and Blast Zone, Mono-Blue Thing has plenty of ways to answer even swarms of ground units. Out of the sideboard, Vedalken Shackles becomes another reliable option to turn the creature matchup on its head and reward players for investing so thoroughly in basic Island. Before all those engines come online, Set Adrift and the decidedly unexciting Unsummon (chosen over Vapor Snag for its applications with one's own Snapcasters) do in a pinch.

New Harvests in Modern

The format had congealed around Phoenix and Dredge before War dropped, but all that seems to be changing now. Not only have new brews and tech choices surfaced, the metagame as a whole seems to be shaking out differently. Here's hoping it never stops surprising us!

War of the Spark Standard: SCG Richmond and MCQ Season

Posted on by Christopher O'Berry

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SCG Richmond marks the first high-level event since War of the Spark's release, and we're already seeing a huge impact on Standard. Typically after set releases, a coinciding SCG Open will light a fire under players to try out new cards and acts as the first data point competitive players can draw conclusions from.

For many players, aggro decks seem to be the play for these early-in-the-format events. Adjusting midrange and control decks is often very difficult for an unknown field, and playing an efficient suite of threats is likely better than trying to pack your deck full of answers. This Standard Open was no different.

Mono-Red Is Still Really Good

Mono-Red was definitely the deck to beat for this tournament, as many people expected. It was probably the best deck in the format before WAR's release and will be the front-runner for many players this MCQ season. It's fast, efficient, and has a solid game against nearly every other deck.

Not too much has changed for the list, with most of the 75 still intact from the last iteration of Standard. Standouts here from WAR are the additions of two key red planeswalkers: Chandra, Fire Artisan and Tibalt, Rakish Instigator.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Fire Artisan

While many other Mono-Red players opted for Experimental Frenzy in her stead, Chandra presented a difficult-to-answer card advantage engine that doesn't punish you for having cards in hand when it resolves, at the cost of the explosive (but inconsistent) plays Frenzy can provide off the top of the deck. Additionally, for decks that aren't packing clean answers like Vraska's Contempt or Assassin's Trophy, attacking into her and taking anywhere from 5 to 7 damage is often backbreaking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tibalt, Rakish Instigator

For decks that have incidental life gain on their spells, like Esper Control has in Absorb, Vraska's Contempt, or Moment of Craving, Tibalt removes those clauses and even applies pressure on the board.

Speaking of Esper decks, control and midrange variants had a half-decent showing at the event as well. As I said before, they were likely not tuned to deal with the aggressive metagame, but another problem exists for Control strategies.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Time Raveler

Esper and Bant Midrange decks came to party over the weekend, presenting Teferi, Time Raveler as a huge problem for reactive strategies. Without an on-time Thought Erasure or Duress, a resolved Time Raveler is a huge problem. From Esper Midrange, issues like draw step plus discard spell, nullifying countermagic, and what at times feels like specifically good removal spells make it difficult to beat. Bant Midrange benefits from it by essentially making all of their creatures uncounterable. In tandem with Vivien, Champion of the Wilds, every threat can be deployed without fear of interaction.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vivien, Champion of the Wilds

Vivien, Champion of the Wilds strikes me as an important planeswalker going forward. She's seeing play in Bant, Gruul, and Sultai builds as a consistent way to put threats into play, with a relevant tick-up as well. It offers card advantage at a lower CMC compared to the original Vivien Reid, but there may be a bit of space in decks to run both. Adding flash to cards like Deputy of Detention is also just horrifying.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nexus of Fate

Finally, we have to talk about Nexus of Fate. Some call it a design mistake, and others will call it a necessary evil of the format. Despite your opinion, there are still many players looking to play Simic Nexus. While it didn't quite crack the top eight at this event, you'll find four copies of the deck made top 16, and are likely just in need of some slight adjustments to not get pushed out of the early game by aggressive strategies. Root Snare doesn't quite get the job done against a grip full of Lightning Strikes and Shocks. That being said, it won't take much for these decks to start adapting to the meta.

Should this deck see more success in the future, cards like Unmoored Ego and Thief of Sanity will become more important, and I'll be looking to these with great interest going into this weekend and beyond.

The SCG Richmond Standard Classic

While many of these archetypes were knocked out of the main event, looking at Classic decklists is still worthwhile.

This top eight tells a different story for the format altogether. Mono-Red is noticeably absent (even from the top 16 decks) and we see some more decks that may be off the beaten path. Note that this tournament takes place the Sunday after the main event, giving players an opportunity to adjust their lists. More importantly, it gave them a chance to deal with the Mono-Red menace. Notable decks found here are Grixis Control, Azorius Aggro, Mardu Judith, and Naya Feather.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God

While Esper seemed like the premier control choice for the Open, the Classic saw Grixis Control take the top slot. The new Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God is an absolute house and can win games on its own. Getting to resolve it and having it stick is the tricky part. This list was able to take down the Classic, sporting a full playset of the powerful planeswalker, as well as its Core 19 iteration, Nicol Bolas, the Ravager.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deputy of Detention

Azorius Aggro, which is really just the tried and true White Weenie from the last standard with a light splash for Deputy of Detention and some countermagic, looks like a nice place to be. Gideon Blackblade finds a home here, offering relevant keywords and possible spot removal for difficult permanents when games go long.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Judith, the Scourge Diva

Mardu Judith plays like an aristocrats deck, sacrificing and recurring cards like Gutterbones and Dreadhorde Butcher for value. Sorin, Vengeful Bloodlord makes it all come together with its reanimate ability, and will be an interesting card to watch should this archetype find its footing going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Feather, the Redeemed

As if there wasn't enough hype around Feather already, here's a solid decklist to really prop up her price going forward. If this card is not removed on sight, it can be absolutely devastating. Additionally, its base stats as a 3/4 with flying put a damper on a lot of threats around that spot on the curve.  Another powerhouse that saw a bit of hype during spoiler season is Dreadhorde Arcanist. It slots perfectly into this deck with its spell recursion ability and blocks most one- and two-drops profitably.

These decks likely will show up at MCQs in some number, so getting familiar with them might be to your benefit.

Mythic Championship Qualifiers

With the new MCQ system firmly in place, players of all skill levels will be looking to take home the top spots at stores the world over, and that will drive a lot more demand on Standard cards in the next few weeks. Given SCG Richmond's preliminary results, I expect the majority of the field to be on Mono-Red or some Esper variant. If you're not taking either of these decks into consideration when deciding on your registered 75, you may be in for a rough Saturday.

As we are still very early into this format, there's still a bit of room to brew and explore new cards and revisit some old favorites. Here are the cards I expect to be snapped up by players looking to take down these events.

Potential movers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risk Factor

Risk Factor was in many Mono-Red lists over the weekend, but not all lists were adapting full playsets. This will likely see play as a full playset in every burn 75. Outside of Experimental Frenzy, it is one of the most difficult cards to deal with for Control and Midrange decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Time Raveler

As I said before, this card is incredibly tough to deal with and is often backed up with countermagic. I think we'll be seeing a lot more of this card going forward from several decks. Esper Midrange utilizes it best in my opinion, but don't sleep on Bant Midrange either.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Ineffable

Many Esper Control decks opted to Liliana, Dreadhorde General as big planeswalker to close out the game, but Ugin was also pretty popular as well. A resolved Liliana will probably result in a bunch of zombie tokens on your end, with the occasional bit of card draw, but Ugin the Ineffable may serve this role a bit better.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset, Parter of Veils

Many pro players are heralding this as the new hotness in eternal formats, and for good reason. It shuts off any cantrips from your opponent and digs for answers at the same time. For control matchups, resolving one of these first is extremely important. Like Leovold, Emissary of Trest and Notion Thief before it, this new Narset will demand an answer, and the metagame will have to adjust to deal with it. Many insiders are very interested in this card (myself included) and are looking to get in sooner rather than later.

Bear in mind, this is an uncommon printed in one of the most popular sets, if not the most popular set of all time. If we can expect a similar trajectory to Fatal Push, expect this card to be on the rise and approaching $5 price point soon enough.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Growth-Chamber Guardian

Growth-Chamber Guardian is an incredibly efficient creature. It provides card advantage and consistent pressure on your opponent, something that many green midrange decks will need to compete in the metagame. The price of this card will likely be attached to the success of decks playing Incubation Druid and Vivien, Champion of the Wilds.

Bring It On Home

The metagame will take a while to settle out, and I expect things to diversify a bit more than they currently are with the new influx of War of the Spark cards. There are still a lot of brews to explore in the coming weeks, and it will likely take a while to solve this format with such a deep card pool.

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there’s anything you think I missed!

Peace!

Insider: Investing in WAR Mythics: A Primer

Posted on by Kyle Rusciano

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Welcome back, folks.

Magic Online finance sure is changing. Drafting now is cheaper than it has been in six years since the EV of the events is significantly higher than it has been. War of the Spark's set value is still over $100, and that even includes some rares still  maintaining value over 5 tix and some uncommons like Narset, Parter of Veils commanding prices over 1 tix. If you want to draft this set, Magic Online is a great place to do so.

As tired as we all are of hearing the word "mythic", I fear I'll have to say the word a lot today because now is definitely the appropriate time to invest in War of the Spark mythics. As Matt and I have discussed in our articles over the past few weeks, Redemption is now the chief driver of mythic prices. Now that War product is being pumped into the MTGO marketplace, mythic prices are declining and heading toward their floors.

What I'd like to do today is twofold. First I want to look back to the price pattern behavior of Ravnica Allegiance mythics to inform us of what we'll be seeing with War of the Spark mythics. Second I'll go over some of my favorite War mythic speculation targets.

I. When do Mythics Bottom Out?

Mythics bottom out EARLY now, much earlier than they did in the past. In fact, mythics will now experience two lows going forward. The first comes soon after release, the second comes after a set's redemption period ends. Savvy investors will be able to capitalize on both of these lows.

Below is a table cataloging relevant data for Ravnica Allegiance mythics. First, we need to focus on the "Time after Release" column, which indicates how long after a set's release did this card's price bottom out.

Note that I'm going to start from a set's release on MTGO, which is a tad earlier than its release in paper. For Ravnica Allegiance I'm going to be counting from January 17th, when sealed was released. For War of the Spark, we should count from April 25th. Also note that the lows and highs are "investment" lows and highs, which means that you could buy and sell these cards at that price for at least a week.

As investors what we are looking for are patterns, and there are quite a few here to digest. It's notable that the majority exhibited a trend upward that lasted for two to eight weeks. On average, if you bought a mythic in early February and sold in mid-March, you would have made money. Angel of Grace and Domri, Chaos Bringer were minor exceptions that made barely any price movement throughout the Ravnica Allegiance season. Hydroid Krasis was the big exception, as it climbed at lightning speed right at release in the wake of strong tournament performances and then slowly tapered off until late April.

For those of you keeping track at home, May 2nd was the one week mark for War of the Spark, and May 9th will be the two-week mark. If WAR follows RNA, we are right now in that sweet spot for investing.

II. Expected Returns on Investment

As a category, mythic rares appear solid. We have a limited data set (Ravnica Allegiance is the only one), but the rational reasons undergirding the solid returns give me confidence that we'll see similar returns for War of the Spark mythics.

Of the 15 mythics, 10 would have made worthwhile investments, and only one would have been a bad investment. The mean increase was 218-percent (bloated by Kaya's dramatic rise from laughingstock to Esper Control staple), and the median increase was a solid 100-percent. Players who want to build decks with War of the Spark mythics should consider buying now; investors looking for a medium-term speculation opportunity could do worse than investing in WAR mythics.

III. Investment Strategy

Below are the current prices for War of the Spark mythics as sold by Cardhoarder and MTGOTraders.

Strategy #1: Invest evenly in all of them.

This is a good conservative strategy. Right now you can buy one of each mythic for 65 tix. I expect that to dip closer to 50 tix within a week. Employing this strategy is a safe way to make some tix on MTGO as redemption demand outpaces new supply infused into the market. Implementing this strategy would have netted you a 75-percent return with Ravnica Allegiance mythics. While I don't expect the same return this time since more people will be employing this strategy than last time, you should still expect solid returns.

Strategy #2: Invest in the cheaper ones.

A closer look at the two data tables above shows that the cheaper mythics performed best. The most impressive gains were made by cards like Rakdos, the Showstopper.

All cards below 2.00 tix saw gains of at least 100-percent. The reason is simple: relative to these cards' past iterations in previous sets, these cards now have higher overall value because of redemption. The scarcity of today's mythics forces their value up, especially once redemption goes live a month after a set's release. "Bulk mythics" now have more value.

Strategy #3: Speculate on which mythics will become part of the established metagame.

Finally, at long last, MTGO speculators have a meaningful opportunity to speculate on new cards based exclusively on predicting their future performance. If you can predict which of these new mythics will see meaningful play in Standard or Modern, you could make the next Kaya speculation. Another way to look at it is this: you can now speculate knowing that redemption is going to provide a bit of a safety floor in case you fail spectacularly. Dovin, Grand Arbiter and Spawn of Mayhem are great examples. Thought that they'd be great and part of the Standard metagame? Not a problem -- you would have practically broke even despite messing up. As a speculator, that's a great place to be.

Of these three strategies, this offers the widest range of return, from slightly negative to hugely positive. Just don't be brash and choose a breakout mythic like Hydroid Krasis that skyrockets to 40 tix before you invest in it. All three of the above strategies are sound.

If y'all want a "Mythic Power Rankings: War of the Spark Edition" right now, please let me know in the comments or on Discord and I'll provide a full analysis of the mythics so that you can employ Strategy #3 more wisely. In its place, or as a prelude, I'll write my thoughts on a few mythics I think could see breakout performances and could, therefore, outperform other members of this investment class. Remember that we're looking for cards that will be good one to three months from now, not post rotation in October. Regardless, I will do a proper Mythic Power Rankings article for these mythics after its redemption ends and the prices are once again low.

a) Finale of Promise

Currently sitting around 5 tix, Finale of Promise is a very potent card that has the chance to make an impact in Modern. Buying back two impactful spells like Fatal Push and Lightning Bolt for three mana is not something to be ignored. Standard doesn't offer the same suite of one-mana spells, but casting Finale of Promise for x=2 or x=3 is also more feasible in Standard. I don't think the chance of striking gold here is all that great, especially since folks are targeting the graveyard heavily in Modern already, but I like that it has the potential to strike gold in multiple formats.

b) God-Eternal Kefnet

I know this is the most expensive mythic right now, but man 13 tix feels low for a card that I anticipate will define a new tier one deck in the nearish future. Kefnet is a design mistake, on the level of The Scarab God. It's virtually impossible to permanently remove and generates very powerful card and tempo advantages because of its body and its ability to reduce the mana cost of your spells. Investing in Kefnet outside of strategy #1 does carry risk because of the higher starting price, but I could see this card commanding 30 or more tix in short order.

IV. Signing Off

That's it for now folks. I threw a lot of data on y'all, but if you have any questions or want any clarifications please message me on Discord or in the comments down below.

Thanks for reading and I'll see y'all next time!

Testing Punishing Fire: Experimental Setup

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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The time has come to start rolling out the results of my latest foray into the Modern banlist. In the past, the return of this series was hailed with a public vote for which card I'd work on, followed by months of silence while I actually did the work. This time, extenuating circumstances dictated the card, so I never announced anything. Surprise?

For those new to this series, I periodically take a card from the Modern Banned and Restricted List, slot it into the current version of the deck that got it banned in the first place (if possible), then run it through a gauntlet of decks alongside a stock list (serving as the experimental control) to see what impact it might have on Modern if legalized. The intention is to see if the reasons for it being banned are still valid, and what its power level could be in an updated model. I have previously tested Stoneforge Mystic, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Preordain, Bloodbraid Elf, and Green Sun's Zenith. This time, I tested Punishing Fire.

Repaying a Debt

If my testing Punishing Fire comes as a surprise to you, know that it was to me, too. Back when I started doing these tests, I specifically said that I wouldn't test Fire; Jund was a Tier 1 deck. Given that the other testing options were either cards that had never been in Modern, had more applications, or simply seemed more interesting, the opportunity cost of testing a card that would slot right into Jund and little else was too high to consider it a viable candidate. There was also the fact that I remembered its time in Modern and had no interest in reliving those grindy, grindy days.

What changed my mind? Nothing. I'd have rather tested anything besides Punishing Fire for the aforementioned reasons. The fact that Bloodbraid Elf got tested, unbanned, and hasn't done much changed nothing for me: I don't see value in testing Jund cards. Particularly ones that exist only to infinitely grind. I've also seen and played against it in Legacy since then, and I can't stand the gameplay it creates. Second Sunrise and Sensei's Diving Top are banned because they drag games out, and based on my experience, so does Fire.

However, the Grixis Death's Shadow player who's worked most of my tests really wanted me to test Fire. At heart, the man's a Jund devotee (he also piloted Jund in the early tests), and only ever played GDS because he felt he had to back in 2017. He very strongly wants Jund to be The Deck again and thinks Fire is the key. I don't agree; there's nothing wrong with the deck, it's the metagame that's against him. However, he's been asking me to test Fire for years now, and finally called in all his work on the project as favors to make me test it. And so, begrudgingly, I got to work.

The Banning in Context

Much like Green Sun's Zenith, Punishing Fire was briefly legal in Modern. Modern was first proposed in May 2011, and was debuted that September. Zenith and many other cards were banned immediately afterward. Fire survived until December 2011, when it and Wild Nacatl were banned following dominating performances at Worlds. Wizards justified their decision as follows:

We also have the goal of maintaining a diverse format. While there were aggressive decks, control decks, attrition decks, and combination decks that succeeded, the diversity was not ideal. In particular, the heavy majority of all aggressive decks were "Zoo" decks.

Basically, Zoo packing Nacatl and Fire was the only real creature deck at Worlds. Jund was also rocking the combo of Punishing Fire and Grove of the Burnwillows. The state of creatures at the time meant that anything cheap was just dead to Fire and weaker than Nacatl, so they were removed to allow more creature decks to exist. They were considered too good for their day, though ironically, Nacatl doesn't see play anymore.

A Place in Legacy

Since then, Fire has seen considerable play in Legacy as an intrinsic and potent part of Legacy Jund, though Jund itself has been steadily declining. It's still powerful, and Jund can wreck the unprepared, but in Legacy, Jund-style attrition is done better by Grixis decks.

Another Legacy home for the card is Lands, a prison deck that abuses Life from the Loam, various anti-creature lands, and Punishing Fire to shut down creature decks. Against everything else, it either loops Wasteland until opponents concede or combos them out with Dark Depths/Thespian's Stage.

Lands is a frustrating deck to play against in general, since most of its lock pieces are hard-to-interact-with lands (hence the name). However, the Fire/Grove combo is the worst, because it is incredibly slow, yet inexorable. The game isn't ever really over, and yet so few cards matter anymore that the frustration gets overpowering. Dealing a net one damage per turn is also akin to water torture. Finally, Grove's lifegain is a mana ability trigger, so it's a return of the rules headaches of Krark-Clan Ironworks.

The Test Decks

I was always going to test Fire in Jund. Jund was seconday compared to Zoo for getting Fire banned, but there's nothing comparable to Zoo anymore, so it wouldn't work as the test deck. It was also really tempting to just copy a 2011 Worlds decklist and go get lunch. However, Modern is a very different format today than it was back then, and those lists just aren't very good anymore. Anyone up for maindeck Thrun, the Last Troll and 26 lands?

Trying to modify a contemporary Modern deck to fit Fire also proved quite tricky. I could just awkwardly force in my test cards, but I want to use a list that would make actual sense if the card were legal. I ended up using Legacy decks as my guide for the manabase in the test deck and picking the more versatile removal. The control Jund deck is completely stock.

Control Jund, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil

Artifacts

1 Nihil Spellbomb

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize

Instants

3 Fatal Push
2 Lightning Bolt
3 Assassin's Trophy
2 Kolaghan's Command

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Raging Ravine
2 Treetop Village
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Swamp
2 Forest
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Blood Crypt

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Damping Sphere
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Collective Brutality
1 Damnation
1 Engineered Explosives

Fiery Jund, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Thoughtseize

Instants

4 Punishing Fire
3 Assassin's Trophy
2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command

Lands

4 Grove of the Burnwillows
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Overgrown Tomb
3 Blood Crypt
2 Forest
2 Swamp
2 Raging Ravine

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Damping Sphere
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Collective Brutality
1 Duress
1 Engineered Explosives

I had to cut a lot of one-drop interaction to make Fire fit. Assassin's Trophy stayed because it was more versatile against more decks. I consulted with the guy responsible for this test on the list, and based on his sideboarding recommendations, I replaced a maindeck Thoughtseize with a sideboard Duress. He only kept Thoughtseize in against control and combo decks, so if I'm going to side one in against those decks, Duress does the same job without hurting me.

The Gauntlet

As always, the testing gauntlet was chosen from decks doing well at the time the test began. This means that every deck comes from mid-to-late October 2018. This may surprise observant readers since I hadn't reported the Green Sun's Zenith test results then. I normally wait several months to recover between tests. However, the favors were called in at the end of September, and I had to get moving. As usual, I picked players I knew who were available for hours of testing via Skype calls and played the decks I wanted to test against. They used their own lists.

UW Control, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage

Sorceries

4 Terminus

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Enchantments

3 Search for Azcanta

Instants

4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
2 Condemn
3 Logic Knot
1 Negate
4 Cryptic Command
1 Settle the Wreckage
1 Hieroglyphic Illumination

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
4 Field of Ruin
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Glacial Fortress
1 Ghost Quarter
5 Plains
4 Island

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Negate
2 Dispel
2 Geist of Saint Traft
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Celestial Purge

I've always tried to have a wide spread of decks representing as many archetypes and playstyles as possible. Thus, I was always going to have UW Control. There was some debate over including Tron. Space in the gauntlet is limited, and Dredge being a huge boogeyman back then made a compelling argument. However, Tron is a known bad matchup for Jund across time and format fluctuations, so finding out how a new addition affects the matchup is always useful.

Mono-Green Tron, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

2 Walking Ballista
3 Wurmcoil Engine
2 World Breaker
2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Planeswalkers

4 Karn Liberated
2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Sylvan Scrying

Artifacts

4 Chromatic Star
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Expedition Map
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Oblivion Stone

Lands

4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Tower
4 Urza's Power Plant
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sanctum of Ugin
5 Forest

Sideboard

4 Nature's Claim
4 Thragtusk
3 Thought-Knot Seer
2 Spatial Contortion
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Emrakul, the Promised End

The choice of which creature decks to run was easy in a rather hard way. I was always going to run two because the a priori assumption is that Fire is only impactful in those matchups. There were some obvious choices, but I didn't know if they were the best choices.

Last October, when I was putting together the gauntlet and getting the testing moving, Bant Spirits was the creature deck of choice. It had been doing well over the summer and continued to do so into fall so it would be the obvious inclusion. However, it's also a deck that I wouldn't expect Fire to have much effect against because of hexproof. This is a valid problem with Fire, so it's fine to include Spirits, but I needed another deck more in line with the decks from back in 2012 so I could see if the cited problem persisted.

Arclight Phoenix was a newcomer and while it had started making itself known back then, it wasn't clear that it would become the force that we now know it is. Therefore, I didn't test Izzet Phoenix. Dredge was also a consideration.

The obvious choice for a more traditional creature deck was Humans. Logically, it would be very vulnerable, since most of its creatures have 2 toughness or less and Meddling Mage gets overwhelmed by Jund's removal variety. However, it wasn't a very sucessful or popular deck at the time, because it wasn't as well-positioned as Spirits. Elves was the other option, with similar attractiveness for the test, though it's not a popular or successful Modern archetype. The decision was made when the Humans player immediately joined in when asked while the other pilots were still deciding.

Bant Spirits, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Supreme Phantom
3 Phantasmal Image
2 Selfless Spirit
1 Rattlechains
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
2 Geist of Saint Traft

Instants

4 Path to Exile
4 Collected Company

Artifacts

3 Aether Vial

Lands

3 Misty Rainforest
3 Horizon Canopy
2 Flooded Strand
2 Windswept Heath
2 Botanical Sanctum
1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Temple Garden
1 Seachrome Coast
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Moorland Haunt
1 Plains
1 Forest
1 Island

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
3 Rest in Peace
3 Unified Will
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Dromoka's Command
2 Gaddock Teeg

Humans, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Kitesail Freebooter
4 Meddling Mage
4 Phantasmal Image
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Mantis Rider
4 Reflector Mage
2 Militia Bugler

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Horizon Canpoy
4 Unclaimed Territory
1 Seachrome Coast
1 Island
1 Plains

Sideboard

2 Auriok Champion
2 Izzet Staticaster
2 Knight of Autumn
2 Sin Collector
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Damping Sphere
1 Dismember
1 Anafenza, the Foremost
1 Gaddock Teeg

Finally, my combo deck is Ironworks. Storm is my usual choice, but that didn't make sense this time. Neither it nor any other non-Ironworks combo decks were doing that well last October. Also, I had finally found someone who knew Ironworks well enough and was willing to test with me, so it was time to bring in the smelter.

Ironworks, Gauntlet Deck

Creatures

4 Scrap Trawler
2 Myr Retriever
1 Sai, Master Thopterist

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

Artifacts

4 Mox Opal
3 Engineered Explosives
4 Terrarion
4 Chromatic Star
2 Chromatic Sphere
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Mind Stone
4 Ichor Wellspring
4 Krark-Clan Ironworks

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Grove of the Burnwillows
3 Buried Ruin
3 Inventors' Fair
2 Spire of Industry
2 Forest

Sideboard

4 Silence
4 Nature's Claim
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Sai, Master Thopterist
1 Galvanic Blast
1 Back to Nature

Punishment

I'll be honest, this test wasn't enjoyable for me. I didn't like how Fire made me play, or many of the games that resulted. However, I still carried out the full test with as open a mind as I could, and tried to show that it would be fine in Modern, as I always do. Check back next week to see how that went.

Uncommon Planeswalkers: A War of the Spark Phenomenon

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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War of the Spark is officially released and is destined to be one of the greatest selling sets of all time. At face value, this may sound like a bold prediction, but I’d argue it’s already a foregone conclusion. It all comes down to one thing: Planeswalkers. War of the Spark is riddled with Planeswalkers, and players will literally open one in every single pack.

This means we’ve gotten something previously unprecedented with this set: Planeswalkers printed at uncommon rarity. We’re used to seeing these printed at mythic rare, so getting uncommon planeswalkers means the supply on some of these will be much deeper than predecessors. This will put a lot of downward pressure on their price, and it’s very likely the worst of the bunch will be relegated to near-bulk--something unheard of in a world where any Planeswalker is worth at least $2.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded

But it’s not the worst that interests us—instead, this week we should focus on the most popular uncommon Planeswalkers in War of the Spark to predict what their price trajectory is. Since uncommon Planeswalkers are something we’ve not had before, it would behoove us to think ahead of their potential to determine how we want to deploy capital in this field. It’s easy to get caught up in hype from other MTG finance personalities and follow recommendations blindly. This week I will share perspective on where these may go over the short and long term so you can factor in these data when making your purchases.

Popular Uncommon Price Histories

Before predicting trajectories for the uncommon Planeswalkers, let’s first examine the price charts of recent playable uncommons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lava Coil

According to MTG Stocks, Lava Coil is the most played card in Standard. Granted this could shift since the metagame is in flux. But for now, it’s safe to assume this simple removal spell has been relevant during its time in Standard thus far. Upon release, the card was worth about a buck—nothing to sneeze at for an uncommon. It peaked last February at around $3 and has been dropping back towards $1 ever since. It didn’t help that two copies were included in the Lightning Aggro Challenger Deck. Up until its reprint, though, this was a very strong uncommon that may have made you profit during preorder season.

Another uncommon that sees ample Standard play is Cast Down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cast Down

The price chart on this card looks quite different from that of Lava Coil. It seems the black instant was fairly hyped upon release, peaking nearly $5. But it crashed down to a buck within a few short weeks of release, not really managing to break the $1 price point since. Buying into preorder hype on this card would have been painful.

Slightly less painful would have been Wilderness Recalamation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wilderness Reclamation

This card is currently ranked 49th in Standard—far from the top but a nonzero amount nonetheless. What’s more, this card is a reasonable Commander card. Who doesn’t like tapping out on their turn and still having mana available to disrupt opponents’ turns? This uncommon launched at near the $3 mark and quickly tumbled to $1.50. But instead of flatlining permanently, the card has slowly rebounded and is nearly $2. It’s still not profitable, but there is hope for this card when considering the long-term.

Lastly, I want to mention a recent multi-format all-star: Fatal Push.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fatal Push

This card launched at around $5, rallied toward $10, and then gradually retreated all the way down to $4. The FNM promo likely did a number on this card, but I suspect the biggest drag on its price was its departure from Standard. Still, the price trajectory of this card gives us a glimpse at upside potential for an uncommon that sees significant play in non-rotating formats. It’s worth noting Fatal Push has been around for over two years and is still trading near it’s all-time, post-rotation low.

The Uncommon Planeswalker Trajectory

Let’s assume for a moment that being a Planeswalker, alone, will not overcome the high supply of these uncommons. What can we expect their price trajectory to look like in the near term?

This will depend on multiple factors. If a card becomes a Standard staple, it has the potential to start very strong price-wise. But such a jump in price may not occur day one. Lava Coil’s price was depressed for about a month before it jumped. Cast Down tanked hard within the first month and never really recovered. Based on this assessment, I’d say ordering these uncommon planeswalkers into the incoming supply gut is a risky move.

But I’m not going to give a blanket “pass” on these cards. Not yet. There are two factors that could come into play that may make these good bets. First, there’s the surprise factor. If any of these uncommon Planeswalkers surprise us during the early stages of the new Standard, then that card could hit $5 immediately afterward. If you have a chance to profit on any uncommon Planeswalkers during such a spike, that would be your chance to cash out.

Second, if an uncommon Planeswalker has multi-format utility, it has a much higher chance of maintaining an elevated price tag. Fatal Push is a recent example for multi-format all-start printed at uncommon. Should any of the uncommon Planeswalkers achieve such status, it could maintain a price tag well north of $5 for its time in Standard. But it’s important to remember that Standard demand is transient, and will diminish as rotation approaches. This seems like a long ways away now, but it’s important to remember this inevitability because the price will drop when the time comes. Even Fatal Push couldn’t dodge that impact.

As we look out to the long-term horizon, things are trickier to predict. There really is no precedent for an uncommon Planeswalker’s price trajectory. Depending on how much demand there is for the card in non-rotating formats, any trajectory is possible. If a card finds a home in Modern and Commander, it could easily sustain a $5-$10 price tag for years. On the other hand, weaker demand could relegate an uncommon Planeswalker to the near-bulk bin. Still, a Planeswalker is a Planeswalker and I don’t think any of these will truly become bulk. Personally, I’d keep any Planeswalker separate from the rest of my War of the Spark bulk because there’s bound to be collector demand if nothing else.

Keeping these cards out of bulk is one thing—but is it wise to speculate on them? Would I recommend buying a stack of Narset, Parter of Veils? It’s hard to say. There’s bound to be one or two uncommon Planeswalkers that do break out, and those could be quite profitable if you get in now. If Narset is one of those break-out cards, it could easily jump to $5, and a $3 buylist would be an excellent out for a stack of these.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset, Parter of Veils

But if Narset isn’t the winner, and instead Ob Nixilis, the Hate-Twisted becomes a mainstay in Standard, then you may be stuck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ob Nixilis, the Hate-Twisted

Being stuck with a stack of uncommon Planeswalkers you paid a buck each for isn’t the worst. But it may take a while for that buy to pay out. If that’s going to be your play, then I’d definitely recommend trying to get these at their absolute floor, a couple weeks post-release. If you think you have the breakout card for Standard, then you’re better off buying now and selling into the spike. But I’d recommend holding off on pulling the trigger on any long-term type speculation, waiting for peak supply to hit the market.

From there, although unprecedented, I think you could do a lot worse than sitting on 100 uncommon Planeswalkers that cost you $0.25-$0.50 each for a couple years. Some of them are bound to hit.

Wrapping It Up

These uncommon Planeswalkers are difficult to evaluate. They are uncommon in a set where you get one Planeswalker in every single booster pack. This means supply will be through the roof, especially if the set is a huge success (it’s the first set that interested me since Dominaria). With this in mind, I think you have two angles to try and make profit on these.

First, you could try to buy up the potential break-out card in Standard. If you pick correctly, you could get lucky and end up shipping a stack of cards to a buylist for easy gains. I’ll admit picking Standard winners is not my strong suit. I’m more inclined to play the second approach: waiting for these to bottom in price and then shoving a bunch of them in a box for a while. Some may not get there, but I think we’ll be able to evaluate which Planeswalkers will be relevant in non-rotating formats over the coming weeks. I’ll target my favorites and try to get a bunch for $0.25 to $0.50. This will require little capital and offer potential for long-term growth.

Lastly, you could also focus on foils. I suspect foil copies of these will remain desirable regardless of the amount of play they see. I didn't study foils in particular this week, but I think you'll want to get any foils you're interested in owning shortly after release when supply peaks.

One thing is for certain: there are 20 uncommon Planeswalkers in War of the Spark and only three are worth more than a buck according to MTG Stocks. That may not be the case a couple years from now. If I can get a bunch of the more desirable Planeswalkers on the cheap in the next month or two, I will be very tempted to do so for the long-term. Planeswalkers will always have a special place in the hearts of casual players, and that should provide sustained demand for these cards for years to come. As long as you’re patient, it seems like you can’t go wrong.

…

Sigbits

  • I’m always talking about what’s hot in this portion of my weekly column. Let’s take a look at some cards that are cold this time around. This data can be equally important. Let’s start with Dual Lands—every single one of these has fallen off Card Kingdom’s hotlist. None of them are fetching prices they would have gotten you a couple months ago. For example, Plateau and Tundra are two Duals that I’ve shipped to CK in the past when their buylist was $105 and $270, respectively. Now they’re offering $75 and $170 for those same cards. It’ll be interesting to track where these go over the summer.
  • I recently shipped Card Kingdom a near mint Mox Diamond for $165. This card is still on their hotlist, but now they have over a dozen in stock and their buy price is down to $145. This isn’t exactly cold, but it does look like they’ve pulled back on aggressive acquisition of this Reserved List artifact.
  • Card Kingdom is still somewhat high on the Book Promo version of Mana Crypt. Just recently they offered $200 for near mint copies, though that number has since dropped to $170. In the meantime, Card Kingdom dropped their buy price on EMA copies from $165 to $130. These were on the precipice of disappearing from the market, and it seems the new price point has motivated sellers to come out of hiding and bring their copies to the market. This has suppressed further price growth for now.

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