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Maybe the title should have been, are you Haunting to bring out the flavor of the block, but the reference to all of the available blue white strategies is the important part. Clearly, a lot of writers have been talking about Moorland Haunt and the development of these tempo decks. The format is still relatively diverse, but there are starting to be less and less strategies that are winning. I still love this Standard format, but the dominant decks are certainly beginning to show themselves. In my mind the metagame is so defined now. Here's how I see it.
1. Play Moorland Haunt - This can be any version of Illusions, Delver Aggro, or UW Humans. The important part is that you are aggressive, have some powerful creatures and can finish the game with Moorland Haunt.
2. Wolf Run (Insert a color here) - At this point, I'm sure you have seen Conley's black addition and hopefully the blue addition from SCG LA. We have seen the white version and almost mono green versions lose favor, but the typical green red version is still good. Basically, the combo of Primeval Titan searching for Blinkmoth Nexus and Kessig Wolf Run, is better, more resilient, and more influential than Chapin ever thought it would be when he first mentioned it. The ramp elements in Standard are really good right now and hitting any of the best six mana creatures to ever be printed is something worth ramping for. If you figure out a new addition, no matter the color, you can innovate this deck and probably find some success. I will admit, even though I’d been thinking about black mana in Wolf Run for some time now, I could never come to a productive decklist so this idea is harder than it sounds.
3. Draw-Go Control – Mana Leak plus removal spells and some huge fatty has been a deck archetype forever. These decks can come in two, three, four, or even five colors and can be tailored to your specific metagame. I would much rather be on the aggressive side in this metagame, but this is still a viable strategy. We all know Chapin can play a control deck like none other, but it can be a lot harder when you are trying to do it so tread lightly.
4. Misc Aggro – When the metagame grows lax, you can expect some of the more hated out aggro decks to creep back in and find success. Both Red Deck Wins and Tempered Steel are both solid decks that can be quite fast. The only problem with either of them is facing all the hate cards that opponents can easily fit into their sideboards. I would include any Puresteel Paladin deck in this category as well. Both Puresteel and Tempered Steel falter in the face of Ancient Grudge and we all know about the plethora of anti red cards in Standard.
It seems like what deck you should be playing necessarily fits into one of these categories. Players are still trying to play other decks like Birthing Pod, Heartless Summoning, or in my case, Black Red Vampires, but none of these decks have found success for a reason. There is one version of Blue White Moorland Haunt, that has not gotten much notice, and that is Sam Black's list from GP Orlando. Basically what Sam did was to combine Blue White Humans and Delver aggro into one coherent, streamlined deck. If you have not seen it take a look below, but make sure you check out the deck tech HERE as well.
I have been playing this deck all week and let me tell you, it is capable of some pretty brutal draws. The Midnight Hauntings have been amazing. Being able to leave up counter mana and still cast your threat if you don't need to counter their play is quite good. I remember I was doing this at the beginning of the season and playing this deck made me remember just how good it was.
Getting flooded is a real issue with this deck. Meaning, if you get flooded you are probably going to lose. Granted this does not happen too often, but it does come up every handful of games. This had me wondering if Merfolk Looter might not be good in this version either main deck or side board. Most of the time, you want to be playing cheap guys and protecting them though but it was a thought I had in testing. Mortarpod is only as good as the number of other Delver of Secrets // Delver of Secrets you play against. I expect to side board at least one out against almost every other deck. That led me to think Runechanters Pike might be good as maybe a one of main deck and still keep the other one in the side board. Overall, I love the list but I might make some small adjustments. Hopefully this will help me find success in Ohio this weekend.
SPOILER ALERT!!!
There have been two main cards that I have been thinking about endlessly this past week, though most likely not the ones you are thinking. The first card is the first one on the spoiler and goes right along with me getting on board with Delver Humans. The card?
Back in the day, I loved playing Raise the Alarm. My friends and I used to play it in White Weenie with Glorious Anthem, in random token decks, and even in control decks by putting it on an Isochron Scepter. The card was fun and quite good. Gather the Townsfolk is like a shout out from my past and I love it. In addition to reminiscing about old times, I think the synergy between it and Champion of the Parish is amazing. Building my own Wild Nacatl is something I try to do frequently in Standard and it usually turns out well. Players have been trying to accomplish this goal all season but sadly the human creature type was left off Hero of Bladehold and Elspeth Tirel. Probably a good thing that it was, but it would have been awesome. Champion of the Parish into Gather the Townsfolk is going to be a popular line of play in the new Standard environment I think.
It seems like Wizards is trying to push players back to Black White Tokens also with the printing of cards like Lingering Souls and Vault of the Archangel. I am excited to see all of the new archetypes Dark Ascension creates. Will vampires be a playable deck? Zombies?
There is one tribe that I know I am excited to play once Dark Ascension is legal. Think you guessed it? I would not have guessed that every waking moment would be spent focusing on one card on the spoiler, but it is just so good!
Where to begin. There is so much I love about this card. I have been singing this cards praise on twitter and to all my friends because I believe it will be a huge player in the new metagame. To me the card is so obviously broken. The last time I felt this strongly about a card was Vengevine, and before that it was Stoneforge Mystic. I don't think this card is on the power level of those two in terms of playablity in other formats, but pretty close to their level in Standard. That right there should get your attention.
...Trample? Trample!!! LOL the flip side even gets trample!
...getting free 2/2's because your opponent is playing Snapcaster Mage.
Are you starting to see why I like this card so much? Sure, Mana Leak is something to think about but resolving this creature is going to be game over for some decks. Not only do I think Moonmist is playable now, I think with Huntmaster, it makes it even better. I am looking forward to playing with this card more than any card in recent memory. The elegance in the design of this card is just mind blowing. I do not preorder cards often, but I certainly ordered four of this card. Fifteen dollars is cheap for how much I expect him to cost a month after the set is released. With Huntmaster seeing print, werewolves could realistically be a tier one deck. I have been working on the deck but I am not sure the exact route I want to take with it. Is it a straight aggro deck with tons of creatures and a good curve? Is it an aggro control deck with more burn and removal spells? Heck, does it splash another color like blue or black for different kinds of removal? These questions, I don't have answers for yet. What I do know, is that the card is quite good. Are you excited for Dark Ascension? I sure am.
Twitter is not something I mention often, but I am fairly active on it. Running my own singles business gives me an opportunity to talk to players about decks and see cards that are trending. I am very active in the financial magic community, so I tend to post relevant information about the finance side as well. If this sounds interesting to you, plus some sweet Standard tips from time to time, go ahead and follow me.
: )
That's all for this week folks. Spoiler season is like Christmas Morning every day for Magic players, so enjoy it.
Until Next Time,
Get ready to Unleash that Dark Ascension Force on Standard!
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Artifacts are a kind of card that I frequently try to avoid when I'm building Commander decks. The reason for this is two-fold. First, because artifacts are colorless, if you get too comfortable with them, you'll find the same artifacts taking up twenty slots in each of your decks. Even if all of the artifacts are powerful and worth including, what's the point in having different decks at that point? The second reason is because artifact mana is, in my opinion, one of the aspects of the format that needs to be brought under control. There's so much fast mana that you'll frequently see mono-Blue decks ramping faster than the Green decks. Sure, they're ramp might be more vulnerable, but the explosiveness more than makes up for it.
Speaking of Blue, blue is probably the color most closely associated with artifacts, because of Commanders like Arcum Dagsson and Memnarch. Along with artifacts, Blue is something I try to avoid in as many of my decks as possible, mostly because of the negative connotation the color has attached to it. What's the first thing that you think when you sit down across from a mono-Blue Commander? Generally, I start thinking about playing around Counterspells and Control Magics, and trying to narrow the range of game-ending combos they could be running so that I can hold answers to those combos as necessary. More and more frequently though, the response I see is that people would rather not play than play a game with a mono-Blue deck. Why would that be? Doesn't blue do all kinds of sweet things? Countering spells, stealing creatures, drawing cards, comboing off, extra turns - there's so many things you can do that are powerful and fun!
Honestly, I think the biggest problem for Blue in this format is that some of these powerful, unique, and swingy effects are so much fun to play with. That means that a lot of people want to play with them, and are completely willing to splash blue in their deck just to add countermagic or Time Warps. The problem is that almost every blue deck, that I've seen at least, is a either a combo deck or a "counterspell, theft, and extra turns" theme deck. The overlap here is that neither of these kinds of decks really lets other players, you know, play the game, either by ending the game quickly or by preventing other players from doing anything relevant. That's not to say that these effects don't have a place in the format, because they certainly do have roles to play, just that they're anti-social in nature.
So with all of the crazy blue generals who use artifacts to bring the game to a screeching halt who do you choose to head an angry army of automatons? I'm going with Sakashima the Impostor for a few reasons. Firstly because I need to learn to spell his/her/its name. But more importantly, she's able to copy your enablers like Grand Architect early, and then bounce herself to copy your threats to apply more pressure later on. And if that's not good enough, she can even copy utility guys like Treasure Mage or Form of the Mulldrifter to make sure that you have enough gas to make it through the mid- and late-game. With that kind of flexibility, what can go wrong?
Send in the Clones
This really is the crux of the deck, which is part of the reason I want to overemphasize the number of clones to start with, especially cheap ones. Because a number of the clones are so cheap, they let you play some sort of artifact enabler on turns two through four, and then clone it to start casting fatties. One notable exception here is Shapesharer. Now, he's usually a card that I'm all over, but in this case the activation cost kills his utility. When you want to use your clones primarily to produce mana and copy "enters the battlefield" abilities, having a mana intensive activated ability which doesn't copy EtB effects is pretty abysmal.
Most important here are the cards which can change what they're cloning. The most obvious of these is your Commander, Sakashima, who can bounce herself to rebuy EtB effects or change what she's copying. However, even the traditionally bad, aggressive clones like Renegade Doppelganger and Cryptoplasm are sweet here, since they give you a ton of potential for explosive draws, even if you give up some late-game utility.
Contrary to the cheap, aggressive clones, Rite of Replication and Cackling Counterpart are sweet because they let you be aggressive early while also being really sweet late-game when you need to go over the top of Titans and whatnot. The sheer flexibility of all of these cards as the game progresses is really where a lot of the power of the deck comes from; you have a number of reasonably costed cards whose effect scales with what phase of the game you're currently in. However, the thing that really defines the effectiveness of these cards is what you're planning on cloning!
Stuff to Copy
As I mentioned before, the kinds of cards we're planning on copying break themselves pretty conveniently down into three categories: Enablers, Beaters, and Utility Guys. The enablers are primarily accelerants, but also just cards that play well with an artifact-themed deck, especially in multiples. Similarly, the Beaters are the giant artifact guys that you want to ramp into, and are again cards that tend to improve in multiples. Lastly, you've got utility guys. They're generally not your first choice to copy, but they do give you extra value, and help make sure you don't run out of gas as the game progresses. While they're certainly not as flashy as most of your other options, they get the job done!
So, some of these guys are really exciting, like Grand Architect, Etherium Sculptor and Vedalken Engineer. Those are the sort of cards that the deck is really built around, and are some of your most powerful enablers. There's also some less exciting accelerants like the mana myr, which aren't awesome, but you've got to have a reasonable density of comparable effects in order to do the same kind of thing with any sort of consistency in a 99-card singleton format.
Thrummingbird may seem a little out of place, but there are actually some really sweet interactions with it hidden in the deck. You can proliferate onto things like Everflowing Chalice and Coalition Relic, Tezzeret the Seeker, or just poison people to death with Plague Myr plus Thrummingbird. It's a cute card, and is very likely too cute, but it's still the kind of card that's really fun to try.
The crux of the deck, and the part that's the most fun! What kind of gigantic fatties can you cast, and how quickly can you ramp into them? Sure, some of them are pretty underwhelming on their own, like Master of Etherium and Steel Overseer, but that's what all the token generators are for, right? The worst card here is probably Etched Champion, since he's only ever going to be a 2/2, regardless of metalcraft. That said, I think that if you can copy him a few times or find some of your artifact anthems, he gets pretty scary pretty fast.
On the other side, the most underrated card here is probably going to be Arcbound Crusher. That guy is actually just one of the best cards in the deck. Especially because of all of the other fatties that come with tokens in tow, this guy gets gigantic very quickly, and if you can clone him, you just get so far ahead on board.
Djinn of Wishes was actually the last card I added to the deck, and that was mostly because I wanted an excuse to keep Thrummingbird in. That said, I don't think it's a bad inclusion. Being able to clone for more free spells is obviously insane, as is proliferating Wish Counters. There are some games that this guy will just run away with, and the random nature of his ability is a ton of fun to play with! Who says you can't wish for more wishes?
While these guys aren't nearly as exciting as your enablers or beaters, they smooth out your draws, and let you do some cool things you wouldn't get to otherwise. Besides, the obvious removal and tutors or card selection, Karn lets you copy non-creature artifacts with your Clones, which can be pretty sweet sometimes. Beyond that, Scarecrone gives you some resiliency to board sweepers, even if the deck doesn't really run any Scarecrows. Besides that, there's really not much to say about these guys; they're good, solid, generically poweful effects.
More Cards, More Bombs!
One thing that aggressive decks traditionally have trouble with is card advantage. Because you're investing your cards into killing someone from the beginning of the game, it's likely that you'll just run out of things to do by the mid-game. This deck tries to avoid that trap in two ways. Firstly, we're blue, so the deck gets to run blue card-drawing spells, particularly ones that will net you multiple cards with minimal investment. Secondly, you get to run "bad" cards that require you to invest time and mana, but generate extra creatures and cards to help you grind out the control decks. The more time and mana you get to invest, the more cards you get out of them, and the further ahead you get!
Rhystic Study and Mystic Remora are the best cards for this deck here. Netting cards without having to invest very much is a powerful effect, especially since you want to be tapping out on your own turn as much as possible. Generally, I don't like these cards since it's often pretty easy to play around taxing effects, but when you're backing them up with threats and forcing people to play into your Rhystic Study to play answers, the card becomes much, much better.
Transmute Artifact is a card I really would love to see reprinted so more people could play with it, since it's really about as close to a "fair" Aeronaut Tinkerer as we're ever going to see. That said, you can do a ton of interesting things with it, like transmuting away a Wurmcoil Engine or a clone into yet another giant threat. The card does some very cool things without being overpowered.
These cards are just insane. Mirrorworks especially lets you do absolutely stupid things with double Myr Turbine or Sharding Sphinx. Few cards get out of hand as quickly as mirrorworks, and I think it's a card that really should see a lot more play than it does.
Myr Matrix and Myr Turbine are similar to Mirrorworks in that they slowly generate an advantage for you. Myr aren't really much, but it's difficult to get rid of the Matrix. Unfortunately, there aren't a ton of Myr who are worth tutoring up with Myr Turbine. Fortunately, Myr Battlesphere is one of them; it's gigantic, and even changes combat math quite a bit in conjunction with cards like Arcbound Crusher or Master of Etherium.
In the late game, Strata Scythe turns every card in your deck into a legitimate threat, and will let you get in with Sakashima for 21 Commander damage pretty easily. It's certainly not as impressive as the Sword of Feast and Famines of the format, but I think it's a better role-player here, since the Sword is only going to encourage you to overextend, and Scythe turns any random guy into a much larger threat later in the game, which is where this deck will struggle most.
The Mana Base
The mana for this deck is really pretty easy. You want some kind of artifact acceleration, you want a lot of 2-mana lands to accelerate you out of the gates, and you want a few utility artifact lands to help you grind out the last couple of points of damage in the late-game. Let's start with the acceleration package:
There's not a ton to say about the artifact ramp suite. Mind Stone and Dreamstone Hedron are my go-to ramp spells, because you can cash them in for cards once you have enough lands and don't need the excess mana anymore. Gauntlet of Power and Caged Sun not only let you go over the top and just out-mana people, but are also a Glorious Anthem for any [card Sharding Sphinx]Thopter Tokens[/card] you might generate!
Last are Everflowing Chalice and Coalition Relic, two cards that made the cut mostly because of [card]Thrummingbird. They're both solid on their own, but if you get a couple of hits in with a Thrummingbird proliferating Everflowing Chalice, you're going to get real big real fast!
Now, there are a couple of cool things I chose not to do with the mana base here. You could run Snow-Covered Islands, Mouth of Ronom, and Scrying Sheets. You could run Wasteland, Tectonic Edge and the like. You could even run Sand Silos and Saprazzan Cove to interact with Thrummingbird. The problem you may run into is that those lands are all colorless, and this deck wants to be sure to have double blue early on so that Sakashima can copy an enabler. If you stumble in the early game because you're missing your second blue mana, lots of the midrangey control decks can just take over the game before you get out of the gates.
Since I'm now well over word count, let's take a look at the final list and wrap this up!
[deckbox did="a143" size="small" width="560"]
I'm pretty happy with this list, since it's doing something powerful and proactive without turning into an overbearing prison or combo deck, and without running countermagic. I'm sure that the list is far from perfect, and the Thrummingbird package especially is probably just not good enough, but it is a ton of fun to play with, and can lead to some incredibly tense, high-energy games. Next week we'll edge a little more towards the combo end of the artifact spectrum with Slobad, Goblin Tinkerer. Be sure to check it out to find out what my favorite mono-Red combo is!
Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com
@cag5383 on Twitter
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The opportunity to pre-order spoiled Magic cards has drastically impacted the financial aspects of a new set. It would be a fruitless task to argue otherwise.
I would maintain that, despite this impact on the immediate perceived values of new cards, the ultimate price once a set is released is relatively unaffected. Even though sites like Star City Games have significant influence in the singles market, they still cannot grab hold of the economic “invisible hand” and set prices where they see fit. Ultimately, supply and demand will dictate card values.
To Pre-Order or not to Pre-Order
Actually, this question should virtually never pop into your mind. On average, there have been about 1-2 cards per set that sold for significantly more than pre-order prices after becoming available for sufficient time.
The most notorious example is everyone’s favorite Planeswalker, Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Many skeptics, including myself, felt that a 4-mana Planeswalker that dies to Lightning Bolt couldn’t survive in Standard. In Legacy, I was convinced the overpowered Planeswalker would be way too slow to deal with the likes of Tarmogoyf and Ad Nauseam.
We skeptics could not have been more wrong.
The above chart (courtesy of blacklotusproject.com) clearly highlights the opportunity speculators had to make bank on this card during pre-order season. Starting at just $40, the card more than doubled within a year of its release date.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor has been severely punished for his power level, having faced bannings in both Standard and Modern. Despite doubling and halving again in just two short years, I would argue his most impressive feat is his influence on un-released card prices. Because everyone wants to double their money on the next Jace, he has caused many spoiled mythic rares to pre-sell at astronomical [read: laughable] prices.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
The most recent evidence of Jace’s influence is the price of the latest Planeswalker spoiled for Dark Ascension: Sorin, Lord of Innistrad:
I won’t even try to argue Sorin’s playability – that much is quickly evident. He is acceptably costed at four mana and even has three loyalty to start, like Jace. But he is no Jace, people! He requires TWO colors of mana to play!
Despite this obvious limitation, people are still insistent on pre-ordering this card at the now-inflated price of $60.
Somehow, logic once again has been tossed out the window by many as they drool over a new Planeswalker. In fact, looking at pure statistics is enough evidence to suggest paying anything more than $35 for a Planeswalker is plain insanity. Other than Jace, there has never been a Planeswalker that exceeded this cost on eBay, although [card Elspeth, Knight Errant]some[/card] [card Gideon Jura] have [/card] [card Liliana of the Veil]come close [/card].
You Already Knew That
Chances are, if you are an active reader on this website, you already knew that preordering Planeswalkers is not the most fiscally sound idea. You also already know that preordering almost any spoiled cards will likely not net you profit.
As I mentioned before, the exceptions are rare and difficult to identify. If they were obvious, the card would not have pre-sold at the lower price. Recent examples include Birthing Pod from New Phyrexia, Stoneforge Mystic from Worldwake, and Seachrome Coast from Scars of Mirrodin.
Looking at the spoiled cards thus far and their pre-sale prices on Star City Games, I can attempt to identify which card from this set will be worth purchasing now. This is a very challenging task – Star City Games has their best financial minds assessing spoiled card values and identifying appropriate pricing. Who am I to claim they have made a mistake on a particular card price?
The best I can offer is a comparison of the newly spoiled cards against historical cards. By drawing these parallels, I can try and predict how the Rares and Mythic Rares will behave once released. This is a task I attempted when Snapcaster Mage was spoiled, and I felt my assessment was reasonable. In rapid fashion, let’s see what we can deduce about the most costly Dark Ascension spoilers so far.
Rapid Fire Comparisons
This transforming Werewolf inspires me to try an aggressive RG build in Standard. He provides four power of attacking for four mana and a source of card advantage when flipping. He currently preorders on Star City Games for $15 (recently reduced from $17.49). Is the old Huntmaster worth it?
Well, Bloodline Keeper can provide a more consistent source of creature advantage each turn, despite needing to tap. He is only a Rare so the comparison isn’t direct, but his $4 price tag suggests to me that the Huntmaster may not linger at this high of a price point for long.
The upper bound on Huntmaster is certainly Geist of Saint Traft, which provides six power of attacking and Hexproof for just three mana. Currently retailing at $20, this creature can be found for under $15 on sites like eBay. In summary, Huntmaster would need to see more play than Geist in order to justify its current pre-order price tag – this just doesn’t seem likely.
Havengul Lich provides some powerful recurrence power. He may be able to find a home in some UB control decks running cards like Snapcaster Mage. Is his $15 presale price tag justifiable? Possibly, but he would again need to see as much play as Geist of Saint Traft. Lacking Evasion or Hexproof is a large downside, though remaining outside of Incinerate range is a plus.
I am on the fence with this card. I could be convinced that Havengul Lich will make a splash, earning a $20 price tag in the long term. With all the recent synergistic cards that interact with creatures in the graveyard, he even has potential to shift the metagame and see $30. History does not indicate this likely, however. It’s much more possible that this card sells for under $15 on eBay within a short month or two after Dark Ascension’s release.
A 7-mana 3/5 creature needs to have incredible abilities in order to be playable. His life-gaining power and built-in card advantage are certainly points in Drogoskul’s favor. But is he truly worth preordering at $10?
He would need to trump other finishers in control decks, such as Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite and Consecrated Sphinx. Both of these cards sell on eBay for around $12. Therefore, should Drogoskul find his way into Esper control or U/W control builds, he may in fact be worth purchasing now. Though, when you factor in shipping and a potential upside reward of $2, it hardly seems worthwhile.
The last financially noteworthy (>$5) card spoiled from Dark Ascension as of January 14th is Falkenrath Aristocrat. With this Vampire, we can try to predict her future value by comparing her to her long-lost cousin Olivia Voldaren. The abnormally-legged Vampire peaked at $9 and now sells on eBay for close to $8.
Falkenrath Aristocrat is currently priced at $9 on Star City Games. When comparing this price tag to that of Olivia, it seems this Vampire is priced reasonably. If she sees more play than Olivia, she may even break into double digits. Her indestructible tendencies are a significant help, but she would have to find a RB deck to fit into. While one doesn’t exist quite yet, the possibility is nonzero.
In Summary
Among the cards from Dark Ascension selling on Star City Games for over $5, it doesn’t seem like there are any huge profiting opportunities. A card like Drogoskul Reaver or Falkenrath Aristocrat may see an increase of a few dollars, but this is far from guaranteed.
There may be some cheaper rare that is pre-selling for $2 with significant potential. None leap out at me at the moment, but there is probably one or two. Either way, this is not a risk I am comfortable taking. Even if one of these rare cards does break out, there will likely be a small window of time where I can purchase a playset at a reasonable price anyway.
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When Sorin, Lord of Innistrad was spoiled last Wednesday, a thought occurred to me.
First of all, I the card was really well designed and I need one for my Ghave EDH deck and for my Vish Kal EDH deck. After that thought churned through my brain, I started thinking about if the baddest Vampire Planeswalker on the block had any Standard and other applications.
I began scouring Twitter and Forums to see other people's opinions. The general consensus was that a BW token deck could potentially spawn from Sorin's power level alone, and yesterday's Vault of the Archangel seems to fully support that.
So everyone was off to the races on speculation. Where was Sorin going to end up in terms of presale price? What other cards would this affect? Was this deck legit or overhyped? The price of Isolated Chapel tripled on MTGO overnight as everyone tried to jump in on the hype bandwagon, hoping to flip a few cards once they had risen in price.
This is what the title of the article, Collateral Damage, is referring to. Sorin was spoiled, and as an effect of his impact, collateral on other cards began to shift. People love to play with strong cards and people are going to make him work if at all possible. Being able to predict what cards will be affected by collateral damage can result in quick profits if you can accurately identify these gainers.
More than just new set releases can cause collateral damage, though these are typically the easiest to predict. Card bannings and unbannings, the creation of new formats, the rotation of Standard cards and what decks the top pros are playing can all affect prices of cardboard besides the specific cards being removed or added to formats. We can look at historical examples to try to get an idea of what to look for in the future and apply this knowledge to the remaining spoiler season.
The Release of New Cards
There was a time when you only had to worry about new cards coming out four times a year. Things are a bit more complicated now.
Not only do we have the four sets a year set up, but now Wizards has started releasing new cards in casual sets such as Commander and Planechase. If we are hoping to make our money in the MTGO market, things can get even more complicated. With the occasional Masters Edition and the release of older sets, there can be a significant number of cards being released that can shake up prices.
Sometimes the gainers are easy to spot and can turn a profit immediately, such as what happened with Isolated Chapel and Sorin. Other times it takes someone breaking a card open for the Magic community at large to catch on and for cards to change in price.
When Sword of Feast and Famine was released, there was debate of just how good the card was. Stoneforge Mystic sat quietly in the corner, waiting for its time to shine, sitting at a very low price tag. The mystic had seen a bit of play the previous Standard season in Boss Naya decks, but once she could start picking up serious equipment, her price exploded. We all realize now that Stoneforge Mystic is a broken piece of cardboard that can wreck formats, but it took the printing of the right equipment to make her price really hit the big leagues, topping out at around $30 prior to her banning and reprinting.
New cards can affect collateral damage in negative ways too. Before Mental Misstep was released, Aether Vial was a safe investment that floated around $20.
Afterwards?
Vial decks became nearly unplayable as Blade decks took over and Aether Vial's price plummeted. SCG currently has the card listed $11.99 despite there being a new format for the card to be played in. Again, this was an obvious example with big name cards.
What about something a bit more subtle?
Go for the Throat was a stellar removal spell that showed up in a large number of staple decks but has all but disappeared now, its price taking a dive as well. The release of Dismember invalidated it as a strong removal spell, giving people an excuse to move out of Black for their removal since it could be had in any color.
Where does this tell us to look at when we're watching new cards get spoiled? We want to be looking at cards that have been underutilized, cards that needed a bit more push to hit it big. Stoneforge Mystic needed a strong piece of equipment. Knight of the Reliquary broke out once we had fetchlands. Sorin could make strong token producers like Elspeth Tirel show up in the limelight once more.
With a second lord effect in "Everwolf" (cards only spoiled in German at moment) and an incredible beater in Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells, Werwolves could be poised to be a Tier 2 strategy and Mayor is the strongest card in Innistrad for this deck.
If the wolves do even remotely well at a tournament, look for him to jump. The prevalence of Gut Shot is the thing holding him back the most, but anyone who has resolved a turn 2 Mayor unanswered before he flips knows just how strong this guy can be.
The Banhammer
Bannings take place four times a year and only then, short of some HUGE oversight.
These are the nights to stay up late, find the vendor who isn't shutting his site down, and pray he doesn't try and stiff you the next day. We've all seen the run up on cards that were unbanned in situations like Time Spiral's, but any deck that is helped or hindered by the ban can affect card prices all around it.
Let's look at Time Spiral again as it has one of the most high profile price shifts in recent memory. I'm not talking about the card, though jumping from around $5 to about $30 in one night is impressive.
I'm talking about Candelabra of Tawnos. Using Black Lotus Project, we can monitor the cards ridiculous ascent. While it was a pricey card to begin with, being an old powerful card on the reserved list, the card could be had for around $30-40 dollars until Time Spiral was unbanned. The card then rose steadily as rumors of a High Tide deck surfaced until it was around $70 dollars in early March.
Then the deck actually showed up at an SCG Open and posted fantastic results and it took off, doubling in price to around $150 in three days, continuing up to $200+ over the next few weeks.
A card going on the ban list can affect other cards prices as well. When Wizards finally pulled the trigger on banning Jace and Mystic in Standard, everyone tried to jump back on the Valakut bandwagon.
It was believed the deck would return to its dominant run in Standard without the two best cards in Caw-Blade keeping the deck down. It turned out that the cards Caw-blade used to beat Valakut weren't what was banned, but it was Primeval Titan, which had tapered off quite a bit since Caw had begun to rise, which saw a sudden leap in price after the announcement. The card's price would come back down to earth as people realized Valakut wasn't back and once it was eventually reprinted, but public opinion and the run up on the card granted a window where one could make a large sum of money.
Things to learn here are that if you pay attention to a format, you can potentially predict what to get into or out of.
If a format is being choked to death by a particular strategy, you can identify what may be removed from that strategy and what decks that frees up. Picking up on P-Titan granted a window that allowed an immediate gain to be made. While less easy to predict, unbannings can have the same affect.
The best plan is to camp out near the computer the night of the scheduled banning and unbannings and decide what is affected by the news. If you can predict it before, you can gain a significantly larger advantage. But as long as you are awake you stand to have a chance. Pay attention to people like Patrick Chapin and Aaron Forsythe in the weeks leading up to bannings, as Chapin tends to have a good grasp of what may or may not be banned and Aaron knows before hand and is very involved in the community.
Wrapping Things Up
This article is already hitting the 1500 word mark, so I'll bring it to a close for now. I tried to break things down as best I could and give some advice on what to look out for, but a lot of this has to be gut instinct or based on what the people in the know like Kelly Reid or Jonathon Medina have to say.
Medina is now out on his own and posting a large amount of financial advice on his Twitter, and here at QS you have the opportunity to get some of the thoughts from best people of expertise on this exact topic. Pay attention to what everyone's saying and make a decision.
The biggest thing I hear people say is "I should have invested in card X". In order to make money in this game you must buy or trade for things you see as having future value. Pay close attention to the rest of the spoilers this season and see if you can find a card you think has potential and pull the trigger. I may still talk about the influence of pros on cards prices and how the creation of new formats and rotation of old sets can also affect prices.
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
A Modern Top 8 with Coalition Relic: A Gifts Ungiven Tournament Report and Primer
I am always looking for the best deck in Modern, but I find myself uninterested in decks like Affinity and Splinter Twin. They just do one thing, and sometimes they do it terribly! The format is great, in no small part because I can reliably play Gifts Ungiven all the time. First off, let's start with a fundamental concept about the Modern format...
Games reliably go on for a long time after the fourth turn.
Let's continue with another one...
All the great card advantage spells are banned in Modern.
If we go from these two premises, we can draw the conclusion that Modern often involves grind-fests, topdecked bombs and unwinnable game states for decks that only focus on the early game. You can play the Affinity deck and hope to draw Cranial Plating to end things on turn 3, or you can go with a long-form deck that still gives you chances to win all along the way. Splinter Twin can do that; all you need is a Pestermite and the deck's eponymous enchantment and you'll win a game on the turn you were "supposed" to die. Birthing Pod combo decks can do it too, but in another way. Through cards like Kitchen Finks and Birthing Pod, one can get a lot of value from just one physical card. The virtual card advantage in Pod decks is incredible, even though they don't typically run anything that will draw an extra card.
I wanted to design a deck that was full of 2-for-1s. Jund can do this, but it loses steam because sometimes, the 2-for-1 isn't what you wanted. A Bloodbraid Elf into a Exterminate! with no other targets is a wasted opportunity. A Liliana of the Veil against an opponent with three creatures on the board will act like a glorified Fog. What I wanted was a deck with solid, reliable value cards. When I talk about "value," I'm discussing a pretty simple and abstract concept. If you look at Annihilate, you'll see a value card. It draws into another card, but at 3BB, it's not mana-efficient. Deathmark is another value card; if you kill a Knight of the Reliquary, you've spent one mana and one card to destroy a three mana card. So value can be card savings as well as mana savings. The reason that Counterspell is great and Distress is unplayable is that Counterspell will almost always gobble up some mana on the way; the opponent has to tap lands to attempt their spell. Dismiss simply takes a card without making an opponent waste on-board resources.
Cornerstone of the super-greedy.
Luckily, Modern has a lot of value cards, but you have to know where to look. These cards are strewn across all five colors, which can make normal deckbuilding a challenge. Fortunately, this format has the cure-all to weird mana costs: Coalition Relic. I knew that I wanted to play a deck with four Relics, because if I could land a Relic on the third turn, I would assuredly win the game. That Relic guarantees five or six mana on the next turn. That translates into paying retail for Shriekmaw or casting Gifts Ungiven for a fine-tuned pile of other value cards. Relic fixes mana in an incredible way; I ended up running 25 lands and only 2 basic lands and used Relic to play easily through Blood Moon all day long. The red enchantment is actually a non-factor when you have Relics.
Coalition Relic also encourages you to tap out on your own turn because you have to spend that mana in your mainphase. Against a deck full of counterspells, this can be risky, but we are in luck because counters in Modern are uniformly bad. They are situational or overcosted most of the time, and the counterspell decks will often die to aggressive decks in the first few rounds of an event anyway. So we have an artifact and a manabase that enable us to play the greediest spells known to Modern, a deck that routinely hits eight or nine mana, and we have access to a giant cardpool. The most logical conclusion is this:
These are your value cards; each one is an incredible amount of card advantage in this format. Few decks can come back from a Wurmcoil Engine. The Evoke creatures are fantastic in the early turns and really show off their power when you can cast them for their full price later in the game. Withered Wretch is a necessary element of maindeck graveyard hate. There are decks like Martyr and other Gifts decks with Worm Harvest that have superior lategames, but they are completely dead to a Withered Wretch taking out their graveyard. Godo is perhaps the greediest card in here. I'm unsure of whether he's better than more Wurmcoil Engines, but when he hits, he usually wins the game in the next turn. While Godo only untaps himself, he gives all of your creatures another attack phase. This is irrelevant, except for Batterskull and its Vigilance. Godo lets you clang in for fourteen damage and at least 8 life points on the turn after he comes out. If they kill your Godo, you still have a Batterskull. If they kill the Germ (or have big blockers), you put the Equipment on the Bandit and crank twice with a 7/7 lifelinker.
Snapcaster Mage is a clearly strong card. It's very good in this deck because you will nearly always have something great to flash back. I've seen a lot of Esper Teachings decks try the late control game with this card, but they rarely have anything better than a 1-for-1 to get with it. Do you want to pay 1UUBW to flash back Esper Charm? Is Snapcaster flashing a Rune Snag going to accomplish anything?
This seems like a lot of creature-kill, especially considering that we already have Shriekmaws onboard. The reason that Lightning Bolt is superior to something like Path to Exile is that it is never dead. It can be weak, but it never sits in your hand. The combination of Lightning Bolt and Snapcaster Mage makes for a surprisingly quick clock, too. I wish I had more Maelstrom Pulses; they are highly efficient, but I don't think that the deck can afford more dedicated creature-kill spells. You reach a limit where you'll have nine cards to sideboard out, but only seven to sideboard in. That's not a great place to be in.
It looks like I've done some weird splits to make Gifts Ungiven better, but that's not the case. I simply found that you sometimes just need a Firespout over a Damnation. You want Doom Blade over Smother or Go For The Throat because you must be able to kill artifact creatures like Frogmite. I previously had a lot more singleton kill spells, but if you're casting Gifts, you can get Firespout, Doom Blade, Choice of Damnations and Snapcaster Mage and answer just about any problematic creature. There's no need for more kill spells, as long as you can draw enough naturally that you are not reliant on Gifts to power you up.
3 Mana Leak
2 Rise/Fall
1 Life from the Loam
1 Ravens Crime
1 Cruel Ultimatum
3 Gifts Ungiven
This is the disruption and lategame package. Mana Leaks are unexciting, but they fulfill a solid role. They make a great threat with Snapcaster Mage and they pre-emptively handle a really busy card like Ranger of Eos, which would otherwise occupy many more resources to eliminate. Rise/Fall is incredible; people have forgotten about how good Hymn to Tourach is in a format without things like Brainstorm. It buys 2+ turns against most combination decks and breaks up things like Proclamation of Rebirth forecasting. Rise is also exceptional, as it makes all of your Evoke creatures pull double-duty. If you are making a Gifts pile, a Snapcaster Mage and a Rise/Fall mean that you'll eventually get any other two spells that you have Gifted for.
Life from the Loam and Raven's Crime are a necessary evil. They make a Gifts into an incredible engine. You simply get Life from the Loam, Raven's Crime, Rakdos Carnarium and another land, like Sunken Ruins. If the opponent gives you the Crime and Loam, you cast both and then start retracing. If they give you the two lands, you dredge Loam, retrace Crime twice, and then cast Loam to do it again! There's no escape! Putting someone into topdeck mode is a good place to be at. Sure, Storm Combo can still draw that Past Into Flames, but when you've put them on that singular out, you're in good shape and you can win at your leisure. If you're wondering about why you get the Carnarium, it's because the card allows you to play a land on the turn that you start Criming and still have a land to Retrace away.
I am not running Iona, Shield of Emeria and Unburial Rites. It can sometimes win the game against combo or Martyr, but it does very little if you are behind in the game. Iona is just about the worst card you could draw, and if you run Elesh Norn, you have to play yet another goofy, uncastable, off-color card to get things to work. I tested it extensively and I abandoned it. If I am going to draw the uncomfortable half of a two-card combo, I want it to be the Batterskull end of the Godo chain instead of a blank Angel.
I originally had two or three Cruel Ultimatums. I am still undecided on whether I want more than one. It's a gamewinner when you cast it, especially when you can turn it into the full 8-for-1. Having one means that you're a little more reliant on a Gifts to get it off and it tends to show up at less optimal times. Thanks to Relic, you can cast this beast of a spell on the fifth turn, and it is like a Raven's Crime engine that is compacted into one card.
Finally, let's talk about Gifts Ungiven. Most Modern decks with this card tend to misplay it. They'll run a bunch of bad corner-case cards and rely on Gifts to set up an Iona combo. I simply use Gifts to double the value of whatever I am doing at the moment. The Loam/Crime engine is my sole Gifts concession. You'll still win the games where you "merely" use Gifts to get Mulldrifter, Mana Leak, Snapcaster Mage and Wurmcoil Engine. Gifts piles are not hard, either, and if you want to play this deck, you should familiarize yourself with what you'll get with Gifts. If you need to kill an enchantment, you can get Rise, Snapcaster, Maelstrom Pulse and another potent card. If you want to kill a Planeswalker, you can get Lightning Bolt, Snapcaster Mage, Vendilion Clique and Maelstrom Pulse and you'll have a good shot at dealing with it. I think it's pretty shameful to watch someone spend over a minute on putting a Gifts pile together; they obviously didn't do the prep work before the tournament and they'll end up going to time. In the event I played with this deck, I got a Gifts resolved in about fifteen seconds with only five minutes left on the clock. You must be able to do that or you might as well just not play Gifts.
On a side note, if you don't want to play Gifts, I feel that Tidings is a serious option instead. What a great way to start your fourth turn!
A Few Words On The Manabase
This mana is everywhere. People seem to forget how good Reflecting Pool is. The filter lands enable you to cast everything you need, early in the game. You don't need many Ravnica shock-lands because you cannot afford the early damage. Unless you need to cast a Lightning Bolt on the first turn, you'll usually play a fetchland (which gets a shockland) or a tapped shockland. On the second turn, you'll ideally play a filter land that gets you the other colors that you need. On the third turn, you'll aim to play another land that doesn't come into play tapped, because turn 3 is where the deck has to start running. I played a single Urza's Factory and used it several times in the event. It's taking up a spell slot and it's there because two activations usually yield enough guys to end the game. I ran it over a manland because you absolutely don't want your land to get Lightning Bolted and be set back.
I had a few card access issues that limited me from running what I would have liked to play. The Dragonskull Summit is probably better as Blackcleave Cliffs, which is an excellent turn-3 card. The City of Brass is a stand-in for either Crumbling Necropolis or Stomping Ground. You never want to have to get Stomping Ground, but there are occasionally times where you'll need to get it post-board (you are holding Lightning Bolt and Nature's Claim, for example) and Flooded Grove tends to mellow out the card. I ran the two basics not because I feared Blood Moon, but because I found that Ghost Quarter and Path to Exile were much too good if I did not run any basics.
Making Sense of that Sideboard
Yes, that is a crazy sideboard. Let's get the easy stuff out of the way. Tarmogoyfs come in for Lightning Bolts and creature-kill against combo. You side out Loam and Crime against aggro and bring Goyfs and Firespout in. Slay is an insane value card, but it's more narrow without Nacatls to kill. You've got two counters that you can bring in against most combination decks. At one point, I was running Mystic Snake as a potent counter and creature. I haven't completely dismissed it. Venser's Journal is unbeatable against Burn and Boros decks. It's goofy, but it works when it hits. I ran it over Clearwater Goblet because the Goblet is terrrrible with Blood Moon in play. Obstinate Baloth is another beater against control and also works well againt Jund, which I feared. I run Claim as a Snapcaster favorite and kill spell against Affinity and Twin. Seal of Primordium comes down before Blood Moon does and it really constrains an Affinity opponent, who must overcommit their Platings to beat it. It also constrains Twin decks into winning with Kiki-Jiki, which eats Bolts. Creeping Corrosion is a gamewinner against Affinity, but it also kills your Relics; it may be better as another Grudge. Nihil Spellbomb was okay, but it doesn't get past Martyr's Leyline of Sanctity. I'd rather have a Withered Wretch.
If I had all the space in the world, I would run 4 Sun Droplets. Two of those will unwind any aggro deck. I also got a lot of use out of Scepter of Fugue, but my teammate Kevin Cron suggested that I'd rather peel a Tarmogoyf in the midgame than a scepter against control or combo. I also had a lot of fun with Exile into Darkness. That card is a potent machine against Martyr decks, but I simply lacked room.
January 14: 61 People Come to Play in the Modern Warfare Tournament in Columbus, Ohio
I was fortunate to have most of the cards in this deck. I borrowed the other from my teammate and friend, Kevin Cron. Kevin wasn't playing in the event and he was happy to loan me cards. Actual conversation:
me: "Do you have a Vendilion Clique? I think I need one."
Kevin: "Oh, I have a real nice one of those... [produces a Japanese foil copy] I got on that card pretty early."
Portions of my deck ended up superpimped, thanks to Kevin's generosity.
On the morning of the event, I bought a Kashi Go-Lean protein bar because I'm on Tim Ferriss' slow-carb diet. Bad mistake, the thing was dense and awful. I packed some Burt's Bees chapstick - tech I got onto years ago, since you're talking for hours in a tournament and it's easy to get dehydrated. I showered and put on nice clothes because I like to look nice and besides, cardigans are optimal heat-regulating garments.
Here's how the day went!
Round 1: Splinter Twin (featuring Sam Stoddard!)
I had an innate sense that I would be paired against Sam in the first round and it beared out. Sam and I talked before the event; I knew he was on Twin and he knew I had something goofy. Twin usually beats goofy decks, so I was prepared to lose my first match. In the first game, I had the Doom Blade for the first Exarch, but he got the second one through and killed me.
In the second game, I land a Goyf on turn 2. I cast Fall and take out a Kiki-Jiki and a Splinter Twin on the next turn. I pound Sam down to 2 life, then finish him with a Lightning Bolt backed with two Mana Leaks.
In the third game, I get a Coalition Relic out and then a Tarmogoyf. Sam plays a Blood Moon; I am holding Negate, but I don't fight it because it won't actually affect the game. I attempt to Nature's Claim the Moon later, but Sam peels off a Dispel for it. Sam valiantly played blockers, but my Tarmogoyf was joined by its cousin and a Mulldrifter. I ended the game with three Goyfs in play and a win in the first round.
Round 2: U/R Storm Combo
My opponent was a nice dude, even nicer because he accidentally and obviously flipped a Gitaxian Probe while shuffling. What was seen could not be unseen. I felt bad for him because he lost a significant advantage. In the first game, I had a turn-2 Withered Wretch followed by a turn-3 Vendilion Clique, but those were not enough to overwhelm his combo. He tore through most of his deck and then found three Grapeshots to kill me outright.
Storm decks are graveyard-reliant, so the Spellbomb was necessary to slow them down. They also tend to use Empty the Warrens, so I upped my Firespout count and kept that Maelstrom Pulse in. In retrospect, it might have been nice to have a Nature's Claim for his Pyromancer Ascensions.
In the second game, I get a Goyf early, but I'm only doing 2 damage a turn. He eventually grows to a 4/5. My opponent plays a Blood Moon. He gets Pyromancer Ascension going and puts four copies of Grapeshot on my Goyf. I remind him that it has 5 toughness and I let him take back the Grapeshot. Probably should not have done that, looking back on it. He instead casts Empty the Warrens and then casts his Grapeshot to kill that Goyf. I'm fine with this because I am holding Firespout, so I clear out his board on the next turn. I cast Gifts for the Crime engine and blew away his hand. He had a shot with a Seething Song to flash back Past in Flames, but I had the Mana Leak and it was off to the third game!
In the third game, I hit a curve to die for. I drew a Nihil Spellbomb on my turn, so I took a bolt to the face and played a fetchland into a Watery Grave for it. On the next turn, I played a Blood Crypt and hit him with Fall for two rituals. On the third turn, I played a Tarmogoyf and Spellbombed his graveyard to take out a Desperate Ravings. On the fourth turn, I Snapcasted my Fall to hit him for two more cards. He was out of the game at this point, with only one card in hand. My monsters finished him soon afterward. He said that my deck was made to beat combo, which was news to me - it's kind of an unfocused pile, but it has a little something for everyone.
Round 3: Affinity
Game one, I have the Lightning Bolt for his Plated creature and a Doom Blade for the Signal Pest. I get a Damnation off and he's looking at a Plating without any guys to put it onto. He is in topdeck mode but I am at ONE LIFE at this point. It is imperative to get a Mana Leak to fight any burn spells from him. I have a Leak in hand and a Snapcaster, so I Gifts a pile that nets me another Leak and Snapcaster. When it's that or a Wurmcoil Engine, you get the other cards! I had Godo in hand since Day One, but I needed to get to eight mana so that I could both play Godo and keep Leak up. I hit it several turns later and make Godo and the Batterskull shoot me up to 9 life. He's dead after that.
-1 Life from the Loam
-1 Raven's Crime
-1 Rise/Fall
-2 Shriekmaw (which cannot kill artifacts)
-1 Withered Wretch
-1 Vendilion Clique
-1 Mulldrifter
+1 Ancient Grudge
+1 Firespout
+1 Nature's Claim
+1 Seal of Primordium
+4 Tarmogoyf
In the second game, I am on the draw and he gets me for exact damage on turn 4 or 5.
In the third game, I agonized over whether to get a Forest or Breeding Pool on the first turn. I went with Forest, which made all the difference. I played a Seal of Primordium on the second turn to his Cranial Plating. I played a Coalition Relic and he played Blood Moon instead of attaching his Plating. Big Mistake. I stored up a mana and cast Damnation on the next turn, wiping his board away. He's got another guy out and I have to Seal his Plating to keep the damage off. I eventually Maelstrom Pulsed his two Vault Skirges. He plays a second Blood Moon. There are only five minutes left in the round at this point and I quickly Gifts for some really valuable cards - Ancient Grudge, Snapcaster Mage, Wurmcoil Engine and Cruel Ultimatum. I got the Grudge and the Mage. This entire process took about twenty seconds. I played out my Batterskull and a Tarmogoyf and then used Grudge to contain a Plated guy. Time was called and I knew I had the game locked up. I Snapcasted my Pulse to kill both of his Memnites, then sent in with the team for 12 damage. He died the next turn.
Round 4: UGR Delver
J-Cal, my terrifying Round 4 opponent.
I played against Columbus local and Good Player, Justin Calhoun, who admitted that he was related to John C. Calhoun. I kept a decent hand against creatures and I was scared when he got a Steam Vents on his first turn. My hand was definitely not a combo-breaker. He played a Breeding Pool and Tarmogoyf on the second turn, which I happily killed with a Lightning Bolt. I got a Coalition Relic out on my third turn. He played a Vendilion Clique and I tapped the Relic to Bolt his Clique in response to its ability. J-Cal then passes the turn and I deploy a Batterskull. He's got the Flame Slash for the Germ, but my next two turns involve paying retail for two Mulldrifters. With two fliers and a Batterskull looking to equip something, my opponent scoops and we are off to the second game.
Sideboarding was challenging, since I don't have many good spells against him to bring in. I took out a Clique because it doesn't beat a Tarmogoyf and he plays his own. I'd rather have a Lightning Bolt than a Clique against most of his deck.
+1 Slay
+3 Tarmogoyf (I couldn't find room for a fourth)
We go back and forth. He uses Ancient Grudge on my Coalition Relic, which is super awkward because I am holding another Relic in hand. He has a Tarmogoyf out that is doing some serious damage to me and I can cast Gifts Ungiven. He has three cards in his hand at this point, and I held two Lightning Bolts that could kill that Goyf. Thus, instead of getting a setup where I had some kill spells, I went for a long-term plan. I ended up Criming away his hand and getting both of my Bolts to take out his green meanie. Unfortunately, I get knocked down to six life, and he manages to get Delver of Secrets and Snapcaster Mage into play. The flip that turns on his Delver is a Cryptic Command, so I needed to Crime that away (he countered and drew) before I could kill his Delver. You can see where going for the two kill spells would have just lost me the game right here.
I ended up casting a Lightning Bolt on his Delver, taking a hit from the Snapcaster, and then playing my own Tarmogoyf to stop his attacking wizard. I was at one life this entire time. I get a second Tarmogoyf down and J-Cal scoops up his cards, knowing he couldn't fight out of a Crime-lock and two Goyfs.
I drew the next two rounds into the T8. Glorious!
Myself on the left, drawing into the T8 after David Gardner and I do the math and realize that we can both ID in.
Top 8: David Gardner with Martyr
I am not looking forward to this match, since David's deck has a good long game and a hardcast Proclamation that brings back Serra's Ascendants will kill me. In the first game, he gets a Martyr, an Ascendant and two Squadron Hawks into play, which I Firespout off the board. He sacrifices the Martyr in response, but I have the Lightning Bolt to kill his Ascendant before it can become a 6/6. I ended up casting Damnation, but David had constant pressure because he had a Ranger of Eos. I got out a Withered Wretch and dismantled his recursion and got Godo + Batterskull online. I had a Mana Leak for the second Ranger. At this point, he had a Student of Warfare with five counters. I was not attacking because it would kill both of my guys, and the thought never occurred to me to just give Godo the Batterskull and attack in. This cost me the game and I lost.
-2 Mulldrifter
+1 Firespout
+1 Nihil Spellbomb
I have a great hand - Spellbomb, Gifts, Rise/Fall. David starts turn 0 off with Leyline of Sanctity, so my hand goes all to hell. I should have seen that coming! I got out a Withered Wretch, which ate a Path to Exile. I played Godo + Batterskull, but he had Path and Oblivion Ring. What a monster. My kingdom for a Tranquility! I can't do a darn thing and I just lose.
I ended up getting some cash and store credit. It was a great venue and I had a blast playing the format. I'm going to continue working on the deck; it may not need Godo, it may not need Mana Leaks. I would probably cut the Journal and Spellbomb from the sideboard for another Maelstrom Pulse and a Withered Wretch. I've got this long list of cards for the sideboard, which I consult when different decks get big. Cards like Persecute and Haunting Echoes, for example, are murderous against Martyr (if you get past their Leylines).
If you're looking for a fun, customizable deck that plays greedy spells but doesn't lose to Blood Moon, this is your deck. On a long enough timeline, this list will defeat just about anyone. Ask questions in the comments below and I will do my best to respond!
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Conflux was the second set from Shards of Alara - more gold spells, more interesting monsters and of course, more pricey cards for you! The set has a good amount of tournament-worthy cards, on top of a solid base of fun Commander spells. Let's take a look at the set!
Apocalypse Hydra
$1.75
If this were a "mere" rare, it probably wouldn't push a dollar. Being a Mythic means it's at about the Mythic bulk price. It scales into pretty awesome Commander size with more mana - eight mana makes a 12/12, which is an appreciable beast for that amount.
Banefire
$1.75
X-spells are getting better and better with newer sets. This makes a game-ending flameout into something approaching Urza's Rage. If you're a newer player, you've got to realize that X-spells used to be terrible. Ghitu Fire terrible. Would you rather flame someone with Ghitu Fire, hoping to sneak it in at their end-step to avoid a counterspell, or would you rather punch seven mana into this and never worry about a Cancel or Circle of Protection? Banefire has got a lot of casual appeal and people try it now and then in Commander decks.
Child of Alara
$1.50
One of the quirks of the Commander rules is that you can choose to have your general go to the graveyard when it dies. Child decks are based on this idea; they are frequently 60-70% lands, with things like Phyrexian Tower to kill their general and Volrath's Stronghold to recur it. Five colors means you can play anything in the format. It's a cool use of the rules, but it's hard to make a Child deck that uses its general without being overpowering. After a certain number of board wipes, everyone is sufficiently fed up with your general that the games become unfun!
Ethersworn Adjudicator
$1.25
This guy is really appealing to a casual player. You look at it and your mind races to the easy conclusion: with enough mana, you can machine-gun the board! Adjudicator is, sadly, too mana-intensive to pull this off most of the time, but it easily acts like a beater with pseudo-Vigilance and a really awesome rattlesnake effect in multiplayer games. I remember going to the Conflux prerelease and praying to open this, since it dominated sealed games.
Exotic Orchard
$1.25
The only time that this really saw play was as a 1-of in Cruel Control decks. If the opponent played lands like Vivid Creek, you didn't have to worry about making the right kinds of mana anymore. It pops up in Commander decks that use a lot of color-specific cards, since it almost always taps for rainbow mana.
Font of Mythos
$1.75
This is pretty straightforward - it's a double Howling Mine. It's so obvious that I wonder why we haven't seen it sooner. The Font holds a little bit of value precisely because it is good in Turbo-Fog decks. The way those decks work, be they in Modern, casual or Standard when Conflux was legal, was simple. Load up on a bunch of Fog spells and hope to have one each turn. Howling Mines and Fonts fueled your deck. It didn't matter if the opponent was drawing five cards per turn if they could never get a creature to hit. Eventually, you could deck the opponent - they drew first from every Font, so you could kill them without even running a dedicated kill spell.
Inkwell Leviathan
$1.75
A simple creature with three deadly interlacing abilities. Inky saw a bit of play in Vintage as a Aeronaut Tinkerer target before Blightsteel Colossus showed up. It also comes up in Legacy Reanimator decks from time to time. It's a huge commitment to get into play, but there's just no realistic way for most decks to get rid of the Leviathan when it hits.
Knight of the Reliquary
$8.50
Knight has always been a chase-worthy rare. It shot up to $14 during Extended, only to drop below $9 after it saw a promotional reprinting. Aside from just beating in, Knight can act like a Sylvan Safekeeper when he grabs a Sejiri Steppe or stop a reanimation problem with a Karakas. Knight even hunts down Arena in Modern, limiting Splinter Twin decks from comboing out. Knight is a pretty safe bet as a card to hold onto; if Bant or Zoo decks become dominant again in Modern, I'd expect it to hit an easy $12.
Maelstrom Archangel
$3.75
It's easy to tell why this card is popular with the casual crowd. It's an Angel, for one. It's a five-color card, which makes some people go nuts. It's a 5/5 flier for five mana that lets you cheat anything in your hand into play. Practically speaking, you'll not often have cards worth putting down with the Angel that you couldn't cast anyway - believe me, I've got a bit of experience on this one. If you're using her to cast Tidings, you're doing well. If you're using her to put that Mind Stone into play, it's probably not worth the work of getting all five colors together. That does not hold a lot of players back, though.
Martial Coup
$1.50
This is a mega-expensive Wrath of God because, let's be honest, you'll never cast it for less than 5WW unless you absolutely need chump blockers. When it works, the effect is huge. I expect to see some UW Tron decks in Modern start running with the Coup instead of spending time on things like Mindslaver. Why steal a turn when you can wipe the board and drop a two-turn clock?
Master Transmuter
$4.50
The Master started a long and steady climb up in price. First, people unsuccessfully attempted it in Vintage, trying to sneak Colossi into play. Apparently, a lot of people have not given up that dream, since this clocks in at a very respectable price for a rare. In a pinch, you can return the Transmuter to your hand, but it's much more fun when you can bounce things like Ichor Wellspring for value.
Noble Hierarch
$14.75
Hierarch is a hugely pricey card and it's not coming down any time soon. Exalted is a very popular casual mechanic that crops up in tournament decks from time to time. I got destroyed in Vintage just last week by an Exalted deck with a clock and all the answers. Exalted is a keyword specific to the Alara block. Unless we see it again in the future for another set, I doubt Noble Hierarch will ever be reprinted. Thus, this price will likely remain stable forever. It's unfortunate that this is the case; Hierarch is a solid card that players want access to. You can't reprint it all the time or you just destroy the reason for running other mana elves, but a boxed set with these here and there wouldn't hurt...
Path to Exile
$3.00
Path is the new Swords to Plowshares. It's highly efficient. It's a Modern and Legacy staple. Path has never even dipped below $3 in all its time. That it has not jumped up significantly tells me that $3 is about what the market will bear for this card; no use hoarding them.
Progenitus
$11.25
Beyond its general appeal, this card is a study in what a truly casual-popular Mythic can achieve. You've got to have a card at this one's level, but this is proof that the market will sustain a mythic at over ten dollars. Part of Progenitus' value comes from the fact that it is five colors. You can bring it up with Natural Order or send it away for Contagion. It makes a dominating Commander if you can live long enough to summon it and aside from board wipes, there's no getting rid of this hydra.
Reliquary Tower
$3.00
What happens when you print a casual uncommon with an ability that everyone loves? You get a sleeper hit uncommon. These are $3 and they sell like wildfire. Though they'd make a great reprint candidate (good art, generic name, great ability), they might ever see a reprint. To shed some light on why people dig this, I'll share an anecdote. When Wizards did market research long ago and showed players pictures of every card in Exodus, they picked Spellbook as their favorite, far beyond any other. That spirit is still alive and well with Reliquary Tower.
Thornling
$1.25
This is how low a Mythic can drop when it doesn't strike a chord for anyone. Thornling was a necessary evil in some Constructed decks. The longer the game went, the better this card became when you ripped it off the top of the library. Nobody was exactly thrilled to run it and it didn't even trade on the Morphling art the way that Torchling did. Green has some interesting keywords and abilities, but this card took a great idea and killed it by using the most boring Green abilities around.
Wall of Reverence
$1.75
People like lifegain, people like big walls. This card was briefly All That in Constructed because 5C Control players often cast this on the turn after they played a Plumeveil. A 1/6 wall, a 4/4 wall and four life per turn was nearly unassailable by aggressive decks. Wall of Reverence shot up to $6 at that time, but it has settled in the meantime.
That's it for Conflux! Join me next week when we take a look at Alara Reborn, an all-gold set that pushed the color relationships to their limits. Until then,
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Spoiler Season is any speculators favorite part of each set; I know it is for me. Wizards has done a great job of keeping things under wraps this time around, and each night I’ve been excited to see what they come up with. Because some of the mechanics in Innistrad are somewhat linear, we can look for enough support for some existing cards to shoot up as well.
First, we will look at some of the cards I feel have some merit in constructed.
Increasing Devotion- This card has an interesting tension. Most decks that want a token producing sorcery are going to find 5 mana to be a lot. I do think a tokens deck will exist, and it’s likely this card will make the cut, but won’t likely be a 4-of, and likely too expensive to see play in Modern. I think it will sit above bulk value, but not much higher, there’s certainly a chance it hits $2 if more than one deck in standard ends up playing it.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben- This is another Sphere for Vintage, and a great support card for any white creature deck in Standard. Her Legendary status will keep her off the high-ticket list, but rest assured, she’ll see some play. She pre-orders on StarCityGames.com at $3.99 and I see that as pretty sharp. It will likely end up around $2-3 as the format develops.
Increasing Confusion- While a personal fan of milling cards, this one is strong but nothing to write home about. The casual crowd will always have some demand for something like this, and there’s no doubt people will at least try it in Standard, I just don’t think a Sorcery that doesn’t affect the board will ever be worth tapping out for. Just above bulk levels, for casuals.
Gravecrawler- I’m a huge fan of this guy. He sits at $5 on StarCityGames.com, and I think that price is fair. They opened at $3, and I liked it at a buy there, but at $5 I dont think you’re risking much by waiting at this point. There’s all types of casual combos that this guy will play with, and he’ll likely find a home in an aggro deck as well. I see him at $4-6 throughout his Standard life.
Zombie Apocalypse- Don’t get me wrong, this card wont see play, but I think foils of this card will be fan favorites, and might fetch some good money. Keep your eye out for ones to snag. Outside of that likely a bulk rare.
Ghoultree- This is one I’ve been hearing some mutterings about as a very strong Standard card. I just don’t see it. You’d have to be reliably casting this guy for 3-4 mana for it to be a good value. Since he has no evasion, he’s really not any better than a Titan or Wurmcoil, so if you have to pay 5-6 mana for him, I’d rather have a better creature. The types of deck that could potentially play him for a single G will love him, but its going to be such a small part of the Metagame that Ghoultree should stay pretty cheap. $1-2.
Wolfbitten Captive (Krallenhorde Killer)- This is the one-drop that the Werewolves needed. If Werewolf aggro is going to exist, its going to hold a lot of Rares, and since most of those Rares will see minimal to no play in other decks, I expect most of them to stay pretty low, but if there are any that branch into other decks as well, they may fetch a pretty penny. On StarCityGames.com he’s $2, and that seems fair to me. Ultimately, I see him being in the $1-2 range as long as a Werewolf deck exists. He does have a decent enough ability to be considered in other decks, and Green doesn’t have many aggressive 1 drops.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad - Holy Moly, I’m in love with this guy. I’d never plan on paying $60 for it, but $30-35? Sure. That’s where he’ll end up, at most. $20 at least. B/W is an awkward mana combination, and unless there’s some fixing left to be seen, Isolated Chapel is not enough to make this guy easy to cast. I’d like to think a W/B tokens deck will exist, but that’s not enough decks (1) to warrant a $60 card. Remember, while this has a lot of the same features as Jace, the Mindsculptor (costs 4, awesome abilities, small set release) it is no Jace. Jace was mono-colored and appeared in 80-90% of the decks at the time. Sorin simply can’t do that. His mana requirements mean a deck will need to be built around him (akin to Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas). Being more powerful and less narrow than Tezzeret, will keep him above that basement level, but $30 is about what I’d be willing to pay for these, if I needed them for Standard.
Falkenrath Aristocrat- This hasty flier will see play, and the $10 pre-order price, again, is not far off from what I expect to see. Her multi-color is hurting her, and the fact that her cost is identical to Olivia’s isn’t great either. I imagine the Aristocrat as the aggro deck’s Olivia. $10 is way too high based only on playability, but there will be a certain amount of casual demand for this card, while a R/B aggro deck will certainly play it, I think $6-8 is the appropriate range.
The Dark Ascension cards aren’t the only ones we need to look at. What existing cards are going to see a bump? I’ve got a few on my list.
Mayor of Avabruck // Howlpack Alpha- I’d like to see this guy hit $5+ now. He’s got enough support (and another lord) to support a Werewolf Aggro deck, while his efficient cost, and human pumping abilities give him tons of applications in other decks too. I swooped up a handful of these.
Visions of Beyond- Between Burning Vengeance style decks (with the appearance of Faithful Looting and Secrets of the Dead) and any Increasing Confusion decks, I think Visions has some room to grow. As someone who has played it in a few rogue decks, drawing 3 with this card is insane, and if a Tier 1 deck has the ability to do it, this card could easily hit $5.
As more spoilers appear, follow me on Twitter (@torerotutor), I always give my first impression there, while I give my detailed price predictions here. Next week, more spoilers! See you guys then!
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Mike McDermott: You can't lose what you don't put in the middle.
[pause]
Mike McDermott: But you can't win much either.
This quote is from Rounders, my favorite movie. If you haven’t yet seen it you absolutely need to put it on your to-do list. It’s all about the grind. For Matt Damon’s character, it’s the poker tables. For us, it’s the trade tables. The movie is a perfect analog to the life many Magic players lead.
But what does this have to do with anything?
Ah, yes. The cryptic Twitter messages I’ve been leaving all week point to this, something I’ve already touched on in our forums. One of my biggest weaknesses in 2011 was an inability to put my money where my mouth was, no matter how confident I was in a call. This year is going to be different. When I saw nearly 100 copies of this card sitting at 50 cents, I knew I had found a perfect opportunity to do some speculating.
So what did I finally drop some speculative cash on? Guesses on Twitter ranged from Unbreathing Horde (interesting potential there), to Rooftop Storm to Undead Alchemist. Nope.
So why did I jump headfirst into this card? The first reason was this deck featured on SCG that makes very good use of Splinterfright. Another reason was the new previews from Dark Ascension that indicate a lot more playable cards that care about how many critters are in your graveyard. Thirdly, the UG Mill Yourself deck has been tearing it up in Block on Magic Online. While this helped solidify my decision, it also meant that buying on MTGO was less attractive than buying in paper.
So once you’ve identified a card you want to speculate on, what’s the next step? What I’ve always done (and there’s nothing wrong with this) is to simply target the card in trades. This has certainly made me money in the past, but it’s always frustrating to have only a few copies of a card rather than dozens when it spikes. This is what happened to me with Spellskite last year. I knew the card was nuts, and picked up four or five the weekend before it broke out and quadrupled in price. This made me money, yes, but nowhere near as much as it would have if I had bought a hundred at a dollar apiece.
So determined to buy in for cash, I next took to Ebay to see what was going on with Splinterfright.
Obviously not worth much there, but you see that it’s really not very far off from the retail prices I found on TCGPlayer. So at this point I made the decision to buy from a retailer, but which one?
When scanning TCGPlayer prices, you see a ton of stores that offer extremely low prices; the problem is that they only have a few in stock. To find a store with a large number in stock, you have to pay more, sometimes quite a bit more. Luckily for me, that wasn’t the case with ‘Fright, as Pack Fresh Magic had 94 in stock at 49 cents apiece. So I moved on this immediately, and only paid a few dollars shipping, making the average cost of each card 52 cents. Note that if you try to buy out numerous dealers at cheaper prices you’ll often end up losing any advantage you gained when shipping gets tacked on to your order.
Another interesting note is that when I went to Pack Fresh Magic’s site directly, their software (BidWicket, I believe) would only let me purchase 20 at a time. So I went back to TCGPlayer to place my order, and didn’t run into the same restriction, which I find interesting. Regardless, the store appears to have honored my order and sent notice that my cards have been shipped. I haven’t actually received them yet, but in theory I will in the next few days.
So what now? For starters, I’ll be hyping the deck to everyone I can (and in my testing it’s really not that far off from being good). But after that, there’s nothing to do but wait. I’ve got almost two years for this thing to make a splash, and at some point it has to move enough to pay off for me. The key to this working out in my favor is that I got in so cheap. At 52 cents a pop, I realistically only need the card to hit $2 retail to be in the money, though at that point it’s pretty negligible.
What I’m hoping is that it takes a route similar to Tempered Steel, which spiked to 10+ for a time. I really don’t need it to even go that high, I’ll be happy if it hits $4-5. Assuming I get even $2 apiece out of my copies when I sell them, I’ll be up about $150, which isn’t too shabby for the few hours of work I put into the investment.
Even if the deck never does anything and this move turns out to be a complete bust for me, I’m glad I did it. I’m no longer a broke college student, and even though I’m still a mostly broke college graduate, I generate enough income from Magic that it won’t be the end of the world if I’m out $50 in a few months time.
On the other hand, if this move works out for me, it will easily generate a couple hundreds bucks I didn’t have before. And if you haven’t followed my work in the past, I tend to not put my Magic money back into Magic. Instead, I use it for very practical (though selfish) purchases, such as the new gaming desktop computer I just built. I was even able to use some of the money I made from Magic last year to help pay for part of my fiancee’s engagement ring.
And for any of you with significant others who might not completely approve of your hobby, I suggest doing something like this. They’ll change their tune when the money you make from Magic starts to make an impact on their lives rather than just continue to feed your cardboard habit.
There you have it — the story of why and how I dropped $50 on a pile of a near-bulk in-print rare. I have no idea how this will work out for me (though it will be hard to lose too much here), but you can be sure I’ll let you know how it all goes down.
Until next week, I hope you guys are enjoying the spoilers as much as I am!
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As you walk down the the path away from the town, you find yourself filled with a sense of joy at all the fond memories of seasons past. The road to get you where you are now was arduous but the tribulation was worthwhile. Heading down this path feels more like returning to a previous time with a different perspective on life. It is almost as if you are a time traveler sent back into the past to explore the area. You have learned much from your time in the town of Standard but your dedication has led you to this heading to see what is going on in the newly formed kingdom of Modern. You have heard stories of creatures and spells that were too powerful for the realm so the ruling council of Wizards banished them forever, but you still wanted to venture to this new area and see what it's all about.
Confidently, you plod down the road. Knowing that you can summon your friend Melira, Sylvok Outcast at any time with your trusty Chord of Calling eases your fears. She teams up quite nicely with her friends Kitchen Finks and Viscera Seer to make your life total impenetrable. She even has a secret weapon that no one knows about yet. Recently she made friends with a Bloodthrone Vampire and a Nantuko Husk. Luckily you are the only on who knows about your secret Birthing Pod development. In the distance, you see the Deep Forest Hermit you are looking for that will get you where you are going a little faster.
After passing through the Deep Forest Hermit you come upon a clearing where you can see the Horizon Canopy. At the edge of the Razorverge Thicket you spot the Overgrown Tomb you were looking for. Passing the Godless Shrine, you head over to the Verdant Catacombs. Once there, you discover the Woodland Cemetary. Interesting, you think to yourself, maybe there is some thing to be learned in this Woodland Cemetery? Something is missing though. There is no Treetop Village or Stirring Wildwood in sight. There must be a mistake, you think as you head back out towards the path.
You exit quickly through the Leechridden Swamp and when you come out on the other side, the kingdom of Modern awaits. What will you find there? There are so many possibilities. So many avenues to explore and exciting adventures are waiting around every corner. Tread carefully though, the Kingdom of Modern is a dangerous place. You won’t last long unless you are thoroughly prepared.
Creative writing exercises aside, I did learn a lot about Modern this past weekend. On Saturday, I headed over to one of the local shops with some friends and some Modern decks. We sat down for a small fourteen person modern tournament. Though we did not have a large number of players, all of us are PTQers so the event was definitely competitive. I am not sure the metagame was representative of a typical event but it does show how diverse the format is. Take a look at what decks were played.
Aggro:
2 Affinity
2 White Weenie
1 Burn Zoo
1 RDW
1 Merfolk
1 Mono Black Vampires (always at least one random deck)
Control:
1 Death Cloud
1 Black Blue Green Control
1 Doran Rock
My journey into this new land of Modern was quite interesting. Four rounds and four different decks, not that that’s different from any other tournament for me, but other players don’t typically face this kind of diversity regularly. With Wild Nacatl getting the axe, you can clearly see the metagame is open for many other aggressive options. Even the Doran deck could be considered an aggro deck, though with the amount of removal spells he played I thought it better classified as control. I actually had quite a difficult time deciding which deck to play. Between my friends and I, my deck choice was pretty flexible. The one deck I wanted to play but did not have all the cards for was not as competitive. It did seem fun to make a bunch of tokens and try to get Emrakul, the Aeons Torn into play from Windbrisk Heights or Polymorph.
Anyway, take a look at the deck I ended up playing.
The first thing to know about this deck is, although it plays like an aggro control deck, it is really a combo deck. That may seem obvious but it still throws players off when I start attacking aggressively with Kitchen Finks and using Gavony Township to pump my creatures. Dryad Arbor not only functions as a sac target for Birthing Pod to find Viscera Seer, just searching for it if you need another attacker or blocker is a good plan. The creature toolbox I put together was aimed at a specific metagame that I expected and it will be changed for every event most likely.
As noted above I went with the combo set up of two Viscera Seer, one Bloodthrone Vampire, and one Nantuko Husk. To my knowledge, I am the first to take this step forward in the deck. Not only does it give you targets for Birthing Pod at different spots in the curve, it allows for you to win instantly if you only have Kitchen Finks because your creature is infinitely large. That is something not to be underestimated.
I was surprised at just how good this deck is at prolonging the game against any deck but Affinity. Unless you can destroy the Cranial Plating, they are typically too fast for you to beat in the first game. Even against burn zoo, I was able to prolong the game long enough by stalling the ground and gaining some life. It is important that when you are playing against a fast aggro deck like zoo and other similar decks that you focus on survival rather than the combo. If you can combo, great, but otherwise, make sure you can live to draw some more cards. One of the best tools against them is Chord of Calling because you can respond to their winning burn spell and gain some life. Small things like that are the difference between winning and losing these matches.
One of the most important parts about this deck is the one of creatures that it runs. Take a look at the important bullet creatures:
:
I have been so impressed with Thrun in Modern. He is amazing against almost every deck. Not only does he always resolve against control decks, but he also is an unkillable wall against aggro decks. This is a spot that most likely won't ever change. You don't really ever want him against combo but that is because you are more concerned about getting your combo or disrupting theirs.
:
I really like both of these creatures as basically a catch all for messing with your opponents hand. These two in addition to the Inquisition of Kozilek/Thoughtseize will do a reasonable job of disrupting your opponent.
:
Playing Ethersworn Canonist was a metagame call. I expected a bunch of players to be jamming Storm decks so I wanted this hate card maindeck. With only two decks like this at the event, I do not think it was the right decision. It turns out that I didn't have to play against it, but if I did, it would have helped a lot. Typically I do not expect this narrow hate creature to be included main deck, but rather in the sideboard. Against Storm and Jund this is a great card to bring in. Can you imagine responding to Bloodbraid Elf with Chord of Calling to search up Ethersworn Canonist so they can't cascade?
:
Overall this card did not perform well for me. Eternal Witness seems necessary but it never really did much for me and I never searched it out with either of the tutors. I imagine in other matches where they have a lot of removal though, Eternal Witness would grab you whatever piece you need from your graveyard.
:
Most builds play this catch all Disenchant main deck and I should have done the same. If I had this bullet main deck, I think I would have beaten Affinity game one because I would have been able to blow up his Cranial Plating.
:
I don't think anyone is onto this tech yet, but it played well for me. The versatility of this copy machine is quite amazing. It does everything from copying a life gainer to killing Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. If there is room, this creature adds a lot of versatility to an already versatile deck.
I am not exactly sure how many four mana creatures the deck can support, but I was thrilled with how this type of creature performed. Originally I thought that Loxodon Hierarch was the better of the two because it could regenerate your creatures, but since that never came up, I am wondering if Obstinate Baloths ability to be played for free when you get Blightninged might make it the front runner.
:
Despite not having Grave Titan in play at any time during the four rounds, it may still have a place in the deck. There were a few times that if my aggro opponent had not conceded, my next target to search for was going to be Grave Titan. Remember, if you draw the titan, you can play him on turn three if you have two mana accelerators. It may be that running a titan is just overkill and the spot would be better served by something else.
:
Overall this kill spell is crucial to this deck. You certainly never want it against Affinity, a sad realization, or most combo decks, but just about everything else, it is amazing against. It buys a lot of time against any deck trying to win in combat because it blows up a creature and blocks another one. Don't forget also that it can kill Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and Deciever Exarch at instant speed with Chord of Calling.
Speaking of Chord of Calling, the card is seriously nuts. It is definitely the card that makes this deck function. Birthing Pod is alright at best, and I think three is the right number not four, but I was unimpressed with it to tell the truth. At most spots in your mana curve, you have one or two options to get. Usually you are getting combo Pieces but there are definitely times when you have nothing to get based on what you drew that game and what creatures are on the board. Honestly I am not even sure that it belongs in the deck. Right now, the deck is sort of build around this card but I am not sure that it needs to be. I was wondering, while pondering Eternal Witness's place in the deck, if building this deck around Gifts Ungiven instead of Birthing Pod might not be the better plan. Grabbing Worm Harvest seems amazing against any creature based deck and my thought is that Gifts Ungiven with any pile including Eternal Witness might let you set up your combo easier than the unwieldy Birthing Pod. A final note on a possible version like this would be to possibly including Noxious Revival and or Unburial Rites as part of the package as well.
Despite not mentioning Wall of Roots or Spellskite, both of these creatures are essential to winning aggro matches. They are huge blockers that really tie up the ground so you can do what you need to do. Wall of Roots gives you mana with out tapping, which honestly feels broken, and Spellskite protects your combo as well as disrupting burn spells and generally causing your opponent grief. Siding out the walls against a control deck seems reasonable as well.
The event:
Now that we have discussed the deck in detail, what actually happened at the event?
Round 1: Burn Zoo
Zoo in general is a match I consider favorable, but it is close and a misplay can earn you a loss. This version played a bunch of good one drops including Grim Lavamancer, Goblin Guide, Loam Lion, and Kird Ape. It also played Hellspark Elemental which was incredibly hard to deal with since I drew no walls. Game one I never found lands so turn four he killed me easily. Game two and three were a grind that ended with me finding multiple Kitchen Finks, Loxodon Hierarch, and Eternal Witness. That was all it took game two and then I was able to start attacking. Game three the life gain just stalled until he was forced tapped out due to his low land count. With no available mana, and I could respond with Chord of Calling to find the combo with no worries about Grim Lavamancer ending my first round.
Round 2: BUG Control
This was a very interesting round that showed the true power of Gavony Township. He killed or countered my threats for the first handful of turns but I really kept kind of a horrible hand. Turn four I top decked Gavony Township and that really turned the game around for me. I started putting counters on my Birds of Paradise to get some damage in before I drew more threats. The turn after that I searched for Dryad Arbor while attacking with the innocent looking bird. If you still are not convinced about how good Gavony Township is he proceeded to bounce the Birds of Paradise because it was dealing him too much damage and then smothered the Dryad Arbor. This is a perfect example of how grindy the control match is but usually you should end up on top. Game two I boarded out a Birthing Pod and all four Wall of Roots so I could bring in more threats. I didn't really need anything more than the Thrun the Last Troll, though I did have to use Eternal Witness to get it back after he cast Choice of Damnations.
Round 3: Affinity
Game one was basically over in less than five minutes. I think he killed me on turn three or four with Cranial Plating on his Vault Skirge and Galvanic Blast to finish me off. I was prepared though. Not only did I have Harmonic Sliver to tutor up, I also came with a Creeping Corrosion or three. I don't think I have seen a player so devastated as when I cast the one sided Akromas Vengeance. I have my board and you don't get to have yours anymore? Yeah, kinda rough. It was even funnier that I didn't need it to win game two. This was the one game I had a really solid hand and he did not draw any of his burn to break up my combo. Linvala, Keeper of Silence did help stall for a second also. Game three Creeping Corrosion destroyed all of his hopes and dreams and earned me a quick win. As a side note, normally I would play a Kataki, Wars Wage but he is pretty vulnerable to removal. Three spots might seem like a lot for Affinity specific hate, but it really is that good. Winning consistently on turn three or four is nothing to mess around with.
For some reason I was completely confused about what he was playing and this caused me to lose sight of how I might win this match. In retrospect, I think this is a pretty favorable match. You have cards that can stop Emrakul, the Aeons Torn until you can get your combo together. Infinite life is not enough against this deck though so don't waste your time. One attack with annihilator six coming at you is enough to end any plans you have to win the game so make sure you don't die if you can't combo.
Final Thoughts:
There are a couple lands that are really important in this deck. Make sure you include Gavony Township in your list. Not only does it get rid of persist counters, it pumps your walls so they trade with opposing creatures, and it provides a very difficult card for control decks to deal with. In addition, I think the deck does need Stirring Wildwood, Treetop Village or both. The deck really needs the ability to grind out control decks and this would be another way to make this happen. If you want to play this deck, decide which decks you are aiming to beat and set up your main deck with the bulltets to do so. Sideboard thoroughly. Make sure you remove all of the cards that are not necessary in any given matchup. This is generally easy to do because you don't actually want cards like Ethersworn Canonist against Zoo for example. Even though it can be decent, there are much better things you can bring in to solidify this match. Overall, this is one strategy that is controlling enough and aggressive enough to be playable in this metagame. Maybe in a couple weeks I will have a sweet Gifts Ungiven Melira Combo hybrid deck to tell you all about.
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The Dark Ascension spoilers continue to come at us in rapid fire. In an attempt to keep up, I'll take you through some of the latest spoilers and talk about their potential relevance.
Much like Corbin did for the first round of spoilers, I will take you through each of the most recent cards and focus primarily on financial trends. This is related to two main factors: playability (of course) and hype.
Even though this guy is a common, he represents an exciting new way the transform mechanic works. It's almost a hybrid of undying and transform in one card! Will he ever be valuable? Of course not, though he is a decently costed human that comes back for free. Take that removal! If he sees play in an aggressive humans build, foil versions could potentially trade at a buck or two. If only he came back a human as well! In any event, I hope there are uncommon and rare versions of this die-then-come-back-a-zombie mechanic!
Next card on the list of spoilers is Seance, and, to be honest, I am a bit perplexed by it. I feel like Wizards forgot to add one line of text to the card: "that creature has haste". Sure, it's awesome that I can make tokens on my turn AND on your turn. My guy can even be a blocker for your attackers. But to never be able to attack with these tokens makes this card a little trickier to take advantage of.
There are two obvious ways that this card can create synergy. First, if the creatures you are returning have a come into play effect. How sweet would this card be with something like Nekrataal? Having this card in a Humans deck and triggering Champion of the Parish twice for any creature that dies is also really sweet.
Second, having a sacrifice outlet available to bin the tokens to after they've worn out their welcome. This can fuel a decent array of interactions, though I'm not sure if there are any current Standard decks that would benefit greatly from this.
Value-wise, I don't see this card making a splash. It may be able to enable some neat effects, but I don't see a deck outside (maybe) Humans wanting to run this card. The other major White creature deck is Illusions and they would rather be making [card Moorland Haunt]1/1 flying Spirits[/card] that stick around instead of having a Phantasmal Bear in play for one turn.
Burning Vengeance has a partner in crime by the name of Secrets of the Dead! With the two out at once, any time I flashback a card I ping for two and draw a card? This powerful duo reminds me of a different dominating duo of enchantments from back in the day. Anyone remember Astral Slide and Lightning Rift? This combination of cards made for a potent constructed deck. Do I see Burning Vengeance and Secrets of the Dead following the same path? It is very difficult to say. As of today, there are only so many cards that are cheap enough to flashback to not be resource prohibitive. But it certainly will be fun to try it out!
Financially speaking, this Uncommon won't go very far. What's more, most of the cheap flashback cards are also Commons or Uncommons. One possible play on this deck archetype would be Sulfur Falls. This Innistrad Dual Land will see play in any deck that attempts to run these two side by side.
Who can remember the last Mythic Dragon to be financially relevant...?....??....*chirp* *chirp*.
While a hit with casual crowds, these heavily costed beaters are more for show than anything. At six mana, for example, is this card better than any of the Titans?
I would argue "no" for one very good reason: his toughness is 5. Did Wizards forget they just printed Dismember? Probably not, but there are way too many ways for Moonveil Dragon to die before it ever becomes relevant. And in aggressive Red decks where the mana curve normally ends at [card Koth of the Hammer]four[/card], the chances of this guy seeing constructed play is zilch. Look for his value to trend similarly to other mythic rare dragons and angels.
This common Human Werewolf (not elf?) is rather solid. She'll help ramp your mana and, if given the chance to flip, will give you a 100% return on your mana investment every time she taps. Will she be impactful enough to impact the Standard metagame? Likely not by herself. I'm going to place this card in the "great for drafting Werewolves but not for constructed" category. Along with the other [card Avacyn's Pilgrim]mana-producing creature[/card] in Innistrad block.
The last official spoiler I want to discuss today is the newest hate bear, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. There is a good deal of buzz on this Legendary Human on Legacy and Vintage boards. Having an effect similar to Thorn of Amethyst while also having a 2/1 first strike body is not irrelevant. She may even see some play in a Humans build, since these decks normally run many creatures. That being said, hate bears often fall within a very narrow price range of three to five dollars. Thalia is pre-selling on Star City Games right in the middle at four dollars and that seems appropriate.
If she warps the metagame, her value will increase. If not, don't expect to see her value move much.
One final observation is that the "Humans" theme is becoming significant. This archetype will certainly have a place in post Dark Ascension Standard. As a result, it would not be a bad idea to pick up a set of Champion of the Parish and Moorland Haunts while they are cheap.
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Dark Ascension cards are coming on fast now, and you have to work to keep up with everything! As such, I won't waste your time with an extended intro, so let's dig right into some of the more exciting cards from the set!
I'm a finance guy moreso than a player these days, but I know my way around a Magic game and will offer some brief thoughts on some of the cards in addition to financial analysis. Besides, the best way to predict a card's price is to predict its playability!
I include this card because it represents one of the most aggressive starts in the new format - Champion of the Parish into this. That's a Wild Nactl swinging at you on Turn 2 and another 6 points coming at you on Turn 3 after they Fiend Hunter your blocker. Champion of the Parish is going to be played heavily, even if it's not until Gut Shot rotates, so be ready.
A Mill card in a small set that will only be drafted for a few months? I think we can see where this is going. Wait for these to tank a few months after the set comes out, then start picking up all of these that you can as throw-ins. Savvy traders already grab Archive Trap and Mind Funeral when they can, and this fits right in.
As for Constructed play, it could see some play in Blue/Green Mill Yourself, which is a lot closer to a real deck than it sounds. It's already good in Block, and will be one day in Standard as well. This has some financial implications I've talked about it in the forums and will elaborate on in my Insider article this week, if you're interested.
Speaking of Mill Yourself...
This guy is cool, and might see some play, but I don't think there's anything special here financially. What is important to look at is the prevalence of two competing "mechanics" from Innistrad. The first is the "creature cards in graveyard" ability that we're seeing so many cards care about, as opposed to the "exile creatures from graveyard" ability that's printed on Skaab Ruinator. I'm not sure that the two themes can play nice in the same deck, but it does seem that the former ability is getting more love than the latter, which is worth noting.
One interesting application to meld the two is to make one option (the Ruinator clause) a sideboard plan for Blue/Green Mill Yourself decks if mass graveyard removal becomes a thing. A well-placed Nihil Spellbomb will ruin your day if you're trying to win with Splinterfright and Kessig Cagebreakers, but beating down with 5/6s after a Mulch sounds more feasible.
In addition to being a (possibly) playable Mythic, this card should have some casual/EDH applications, so even if it doesn't see play in Constructed formats (and 7 mana is a lot for something that's not Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite), be aware that the Reaver could still retain some value.
This certainly helps the case for Burning Vengeance, though I'm not sure the deck can really take off. The problem is that as enchantments become more playable (like this, Vengeance, Virtue, Angelic Destiny, etc) become more playable people can actually hate on them fairly easily with Ray of Revelation. This in itself isn't a huge problem, but the fact that the deck is also weak to graveyard hate might be too much to handle.
That said, this could be an Uncommon that ends up being worth a few bucks, and I know plenty of people will want to play a deck as fun as Burning Vengeance. I know I do.
I'm not sure how easy it will be to fit Humans you want to sacrifice into a deck with the Aristocrat, but it is a Mythic Vampire, which nowadays holds value as well or better than Angels. Not only could this top the curve in a RB aggro deck ala Demigod of Revenge, but with the ability to put it into a deck with Humans it could become really nutty.
Financially, I'm looking at something similar to Olivia Volderen, and any increase in playability will have an even more pronounced effect on its price than Olivia's did.
Now I'm a man who's known to love a few Lords (as long as they are also Merfolk), and this guy doesn't disappoint. It's another reason to be on the lookout for Intangible Virtue and Token strategies in general, and 4cmc Planeswalker have a storied history of succeeding in Token decks. Our friends Elspeth, Knight Errant and Ajani Goldmane can attest to that. This guy also protects himself as well or better than Elspeth did, and the fact that he grants Emblems the turn he comes out is pretty insane.
Financially, this guy is going to be a star. The only question is how big of one, something for which I'll reserve judgment for until the rest of the set is spoiled. The fact he's in a small, destined-to-be underdrafted set similar to Worldwake is not a fact to forget. But if that wasn't enough, Sorin also has a few other things going for him. The first is that he is a Vampire and makes some little Vamp friends, too. That's enough to carry some weight. Another factor is that BW has always randomly been a popular casual combination (look at Fetid Heath and Deathbringer Liege as examples), and that will also prop up his price.
Until next time, enjoy the rest of Spoiler Season (this year with 100% more Lord and 100% fewer Godbooks)!
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CommanderCast returns for Season 5! Our first episode of 2012 is jam-packed with content ranging from Card Advantage in EDH to an exhaustive set review of the Commander product released in summer 2011. This episode Andy is joined by Donovan, Justin, and Sean. Also includes news on YouTube channel, Season 5 Contest, the Facebook page, and more.
Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.
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For the past few months I’ve sequestered my available MTG cash budget on the sidelines. Innistrad cards were all the rage, but prices frequently dwindle on new cards as they reach a supply/demand balance. And, with the holiday season, there are minimal metagame shifts during the competitive hiatus.
The turn of the New Year brings along with it an exciting time for MTG investing. There is a coincidental overlap of multiple impactful activities. Each of these changes will yield many opportunities and I plan to do some aggressive buying in the next few weeks.
Some cards will be incredibly profitable to acquire but in a very narrow window of opportunity. Other cards will fall to the wayside, forgotten for months at a time.
But what are these opportunities? What cards would be wise to pick up, and why? Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Modern.
Modern Mayhem
Many financial writers have already made their predictions as to what cards will go up in price due to the start of the first Modern PTQ season. So far, the popularity of this infant format has been strong, indicating likelihood for cards to skyrocket in value. Zendikar Fetch Lands, Dark Confidant, Thoughtseize, and other Legacy favorites are likely to perform well in Modern.
But despite all the discussion on these cards, their values have been rather stagnant. While the long term viability of these cards remains strong, so long as they don’t see a reprint, there are other potentially stronger opportunities worth considering.
For example, consider the recent spike on Proclamation of Rebirth (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com):
This rare card demonstrates a fairly frequent trend in the realm of Modern cards – growth from fifty cents to three dollars in just a few short months. The sudden spike was not anticipated by many and it was caused by the success of various White Weenie decks on MTGO.
A more widely known example is Past in Flames (picture courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).
Since bottoming at around two dollars, Past in Flames has been on quite the tear. Not only has this card become more expensive on eBay, but Star City Games and Channel Fireball have demonstrated their belief in the card’s power by upping the price from four to eight dollars.
Due to the nature of the Modern format, it may be quite the gamble to buy these last two cards. They rely very heavily on the success of their respective decks. For this reason I would wait to invest/purchase until these cards put up positive results.
Since Modern is so young, there is bound to be a handful of cards that will trend similarly to these two. Rather than risk buying these cards and watching them flop in tournament play, it may be wise to sit back and wait to pounce on upcoming opportunities.
There is bound to be more opportunities as the PTQ season gets underway. You will need to watch closely as results become tabulated because, while there will be cards that will double in value, the chance to grab them early will be narrow. Speculation on Modern can be high risk/high reward if you follow this strategy.
Old Set Syndrome
Perhaps your investment style is risk-averse. Perhaps you have a collection of fifty fetch lands and you’d like to invest in other sure-fire bets with a longer horizon. Conveniently, there is another event in the world of Magic taking place that will yield such opportunities. In two words: Dark Ascension.
Many articles will be written over the next few weeks attempting to summarize the value of each card in this new set. People will scramble to obtain their playsets of any new deck-defining cards. It may be wise to keep a good selection of Dark Ascension cards in your trade binder, however your speculation targets may shift towards the set that will soon be overlooked: Innistrad.
When a second set of a block is launched, the first set becomes the boring one. Drafters will eagerly crack open their one pack of Dark Ascension and continue on with the ho-hum two-thirds of the draft. While people fill their trade binders with unwanted Innistrad rares, you should have opportunity to grab some format staples cheaply.
Which cards would be wise to grab while they are cheap? First and foremost, consider completing your playsets of all the Innistrad Nonbasic Lands (well, except Shimmering Grotto). These cards are all hitting a bottom in price, but once Scars of Mirrodin rotates out of Standard these once-forgotten lands will jump in value.
The above chart from blacklotusproject.com shows a general leveling out of value for each of the five Innistrad Dual Lands. And while [card Sulfur Falls]some[/card] will always be worth more than [card Clifftop Retreat]others[/card], they should all see a reasonable bump once Scars Duals rotate out of Standard.
The same is true for the spell-lands of Innistrad (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).
Again, the three most popular spell-lands from Innistrad: Moorland Haunt, Kessig Wolf Run, and Gavony Township have all seen a significant drop in card price since release. None of them will likely ever break five dollars. They are, however, still a great bargain to trade for while they are being ignored by most players.
The key here is to acquire cards that see significant tournament play but may not seem as “sexy” as the newest Planeswalker. Always keep in mind that, while there may be a great Planeswalker in Dark Ascension, the chance of it reaching [card Jace, the Mind Sculptor]Jace 2.0[/card] price levels after initial pre-order pricing is small.
Standard Stabilizing
The final trend that is actively impacting card values is the Standard metagame distribution. Up until recently, the strongest deck of the format has been evanescent at best. First it was Tempered Steel, then [card Shrine of Burning Rage]Red Deck Wins[/card], then [card Liliana of the Veil]Solar Flare[/card], then Kessig Wolf Run, then [card Lord of the Unreal]U/W Illusions[/card], etc. In other words, the format has been in constant flux.
This also means that card values have been constantly fluctuating as well. Where there are fluctuations there are opportunities to profit. But if history is any indicator, the Standard format will finally fall into a stable metagame. The top tiered decks will dominate and the card prices in these decks will increase.
The time to take advantage of this opportunity is running out. There already is a settling of the metagame, but Dark Ascension may still have a significant impact. As the spoiler season approaches, pay very close attention to possible synergies between current Standard decks and spoiled cards.
There will be opportunities – it’s just a matter of identifying them quickly enough. This site will be an excellent source of information as the spoiler season progresses so stay tuned for suggested pick-ups.
An Array of Possibilities
My intent of this article was to share a variety of possible speculation techniques depending on your own risk/reward preferences. If you are the type who likes to jump on the next hot card before everyone else, then the upcoming Modern PTQ season is your chance to shine! If you prefer investing in the stable, under-appreciated cards in Standard, keep a close eye on Innistrad card values as they reach rock bottom during Dark Ascensions time in the spotlight.
Personally, I always follow a holistic approach. Much like in the stock market, a diversified portfolio is the best way to assure you will not miss out on any major opportunities while also mitigating risk. As a result, I have a dozen Zendikar Fetch Lands, Past in Flames, and Innistrad Dual Lands all set aside until the time is right to sell.
What is in your MTG portfolio as all these exciting changes take shape?
