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Jason’s Archives: Gen Con Wrap-up Extravaganza

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Greetings, Speculators!

Newly arrived from Gen Con, I am not back on a normal sleeping schedule yet, but I tried.

Five mornings in a row waking up after less than five hours of sleep can take a toll on the human body, especially as we start to approach thirty. Fifty may be the new thirty, but that doesn't make thirty the new fifteen. Attending Gen Con as an exhibitor, I used to get up at 6:00, work until the dealer hall closed at 6:00 pm, tidy up for two hours and afterward head out to the bar until 3:00 am. Then repeat for the next four days. But I'm not the spry 22-year-old I used to be.

While it's possible to get three hours of sleep every night during Gen Con, the entire five day marathon (coupled with the taxing, albeit shorter-than-others'-journeys, four-hour drive home) can lead to quite the Monday morning hangover. So keep your voices down, dim the lights, and let's talk about what happened in Indianapolis.

What Happens in Indianapolis Stays... Thoroughly Photographed and Videotaped For Posterity

If you happened to miss Gen Con, billed as the best four days in gaming, you missed a lot. All of the things, really. Here is a confusing list of happenings taken completely out of context and arranged in a counter-intuitive way, designed to make you feel like a dope for having to work or living in Europe or whatever excuse you had:

Also, this--

My mother said I could be anything when I grew up, so I became a library.

If nothing else, you also missed your chance to snag a set of the Brainstorm Brewery Spirit tokens we were handing out all weekend. Don't miss your chance to grab some at the next GP.

What Happens in Vegas Teaches Sleight of Hand Techniques

Redditor SlimGrin reminded me today of a TED video I watched a while back by Tabletop Magic Master Lennart Green. I watched this video again during the recent scandal in Detroit where a player stood accused of some audacious cheats and we were all left to marvel at his sheer mastery of sleight of hand.

This fascinating video shows how far complicated shuffle tracking and other techniques can take an adept cheater. Tom Martell's analysis (linked above too) is an interesting look at what I'm calling "Puerto Rican Shufflegate" (working title) or PuRiShuGat for short.

There are some compelling questions to ask, such as why Iramain didn't check for a basic land after Path to Exile when he knew the bottom card was Etched Champion and both Mountains were out, but did check later when the [card Etched Champion]Champion[/card] had been shuffled in? This looks like cheating to me, and unfortunately we have some experience watching similar videos for sketchy behavior.

Seriously, though, watch the whole Lennart Green video. It's funny, entertaining, and reveals just how natural a talented cardsmith can make complicated tracking look.

Shuffling a deck presented to you by an opponent should be second nature to you as a player. Also watch for the chop cut; as Martell points out it has no value as a shuffling technique and only serves to put chunks of potentially ordered cards closer to the top of the library.

This is the second scandal involving Vendilion Clique. Whenever a card's exact location in the library is known by either player, there will be temptation to cheat. Exercise some caution out there and let's keep it fair. And by "fair," I mean, "a game where the more highly-skilled player spends twenty-five minutes incrementally eking out well-deserved advantage only to lose to a [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card] off the top."

What Happens at Gen Con is the Only Thing Anywhere

Since they aren't naive beyond belief, Starcity Games and TCGPlayer opted not to hold Open events that would conflict with Gen Con this weekend. I am going to devote my coverage space this week to the World Cup results because I think there is valuable information about Standard therein.

Start With a Big Pile

World Magic Cup Decks: 3-1 or Better

Exhausted yet? We have our work cut out for us. Let's deal with our presumptions about the format first. I opted to start at the top of the page, Ctrl+F "delver" and see how many times the scroll stopped. That number was "36". The total number of decks listed is 86, meaning 42% of the 3-1 and better decks had Delver of Secrets in them.

I don't usually re-use jokes, but I realized I made this exact face when I saw the results.

It would seem that at the most competitive echelons, players really don't want Magic to be fun. No wonder they call them "grinders".

Nothing New Under the Sun

Primarily concerned with making my job simple on occasion, the mothership has taken pains to arrange their coverage page in a manner similar to how I would have in this article. They also took care of something I like to do every week, which is to scour an otherwise boring list of Delver and R/G Aggro piles to find any novel or interesting decks worth discussion. This is, after all, a financial website, and it's not very useful to hear me say, "Herp, [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card] is worth a lot of money, huh? You should have bought those before they hit $50."

What is useful is to point out, once again, that people are doing big things with Trading Post.

I got so sick of being offered a dollar on Trading Post that I took them out of my binder before giving it to dealers. I am hoarding these like they were made out of acorns. It's not a secret that this card is criminally underpriced and many of you have contacted me on Twitter or e-mail to ask my opinion, not to mention our ranting about this card on Brainstorm Brewery. You may consider it bonus financial info in a free article, but really all I'm advocating is to pull the trigger on something you already knew was a good pick-up.

If you can get Trading Post for two or three bucks, it would be silly not to. Even if you don't want to go deep speculating on it, pick up a cheap four-of set for your deckbuilding stock before they go up more. This card is worth building around, and how much do EDH players love a card that does four different things?

Peter Vieren got a deck tech interview, via Zac Hill, on the power and novelty of the R/G Trading Post deck. Who remembers Kuldotha Phoenix?

Another innovation is pushing the [card Talrand, Sky Summoner]Talrand[/card] plan even further than we discussed last week. If it's good value to play free spells to power Talrand and Runechanter's Pike, why not swing for the fences with a Tarmogoyf approximation?

Quirion Dryad does a nice impression of Goyf in an instant-heavy deck. It puts the opponent in an awkward spot by demanding removal lest they get stomped flat before playing a fifth land, and growing scarier every time you counter the spells inevitably aimed at it.

I hope you will agree that even though it's super boring to see Delver decks keep winning, innovation can keep the deck fresh enough to maintain interest.

To see more, check out Lucas Siow's conversation with BDM about U/G Delver.

A special congratulations goes out to the team from Chinese Tai Pei for winning the World Cup. Check out the Brainstorm Brewery homepage in the coming weeks for Marcel's interview with the team after their impressive victory.

Until next time

That does it for me this week. If you don't mind, I plan to lapse into a coma and not wake up until tomorrow when I'll have to process a week's backlog of eBay sales. Take care of each other out there, kids!

Jason Alt
@JasonEAlt on Twitter

Insider: Digital Tools to Make Connections

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Gen Con took place this past weekend in Indianapolis and it looks like everyone had a great time.

Sadly, I was unable to attend. When you have many other commitments such as family, work, school, etc., it becomes difficult to stay actively engaged in the Magic Community by going to these premier events. I haven’t even been to Friday Night Magic since before my son was born, almost six months ago.

Staying connected with other Magic players can be incredibly valuable though. The more people you know, the more potential trade partners you are comfortable dealing with, the more rumors you hear about certain cards, and the more you stay on top of card values.

Because I lack traditional opportunities to network with the Magic community, I do my best to come up with creative ways of staying in touch with other Magic players. In this article, I will present some valuable avenues worth pursuing to network with other Magic players as well as some of the immediate benefits from doing so.

Twitter – The Digital Water Cooler

If you’ve read some of my previous articles, you’ve already learned how much of a proponent of Twitter I am. Although it’s not the sole reason, I don’t think I would be writing for this prestigious website today if it weren’t for Twitter.

But I’m jumping ahead a little bit. I’m here to talk the basics.

Step one, go to www.twitter.com and sign up for a Twitter account if you don’t already have one.

Step two, follow key MTG finance people. For starters, I’d recommend @mtgmedina, @chasandres, all the finance writers for this site, which can be found on this thread, and some of the active participants in the QS forums.

Step three, profit.

Perhaps it’s not this easy, but it doesn’t take too much investment of effort to begin reaping the benefits of this digital, public chat room. People are constantly commenting on MTG trends, identifying cards to speculate on, and discussing price changes. If you’re not listening into these conversations, you're missing out on some of the earliest tips for what cards to buy.

For example, here’s a recent conversation I had on Twitter discussing recent pricing trends on Unhinged & Unglued basic lands:

The best part of it all – the information is available no matter where you are and at no cost. Waiting in line at Starbucks? Check your Twitter feed. Slow day at work? Hop onto Twitter for a brief chat. The beauty of Twitter is that there is always new information to read and it’s incredibly easy to voice an opinion, spreading the word. The more you Tweet and get others’ attention, the more networked you will quickly become.

So try it out – send me a Tweet and let me know what you think! @sigfig8

MOTL – The Digital Bulletin Board

Wouldn’t it be nice to have your finger on the pulse of MTG card values, with new information coming at you minute by minute? Some major Magic retailers may already provide this, but their prices are often higher than what you can expect to get for your own cards. There is a better way to learn how cash values of cards are constantly changing.

MOTL, which stands for Magic Online Trading League, is a site that enables Magic players around the world to buy, sell, trade, and discuss Magic Cards. Every few minutes a new list of cards for sale/trade is updated. Here’s the snapshot from this morning:

Signing up for the site is easy, and valuable information can become immediately available. You don’t even need to perform a single transaction to learn about how card values are changing.

How is that possible? Every time someone posts a new list of Magic Cards for sale, other members of the community can post their interest in purchasing said cards. Which cards do you think sell first? The underpriced ones, of course! Sometimes you even see someone undervaluing a particular card severely and there will be four or five posters expressing interest in that same card. This isn’t coincidence – that card’s value is likely higher than the posted price.

On the other hand, some people post prices closer to retail – their threads frequently get no buyers or a handful of lowball offers. The MOTL community is very much in tune with the cash value of cards, and staying up to date with this forum provides you with how others in the Magic community are viewing card values – not just the big retailers.

Finally, it is worth noting that there is a Trading and Value thread in MOTL as well. Although it’s not as… classy… as the QS forums, it still does contain a few tidbits of useful information.

So check it out – you can even view these threads without having an account, so there is no risk to you for visiting the site. And since there’s no FNM’s involved and no need to commit hours at a time to the site, I’m able to actively buy, sell and trade Magic Cards without ever stepping foot outside my door.

Well, except for the occasional trip(s) to the Post Office.

Twitch – The Digital Tournament Table

Twitch – www.twitch.tv – is a recent discovery of mine. Through this website, I am able to watch some of the better Magic players duel it out on MTGO live without leaving my home. It’s like I’m looking over their shoulders as they sling their spells and battle for some free digital packs.

The value here is again very steep without much investment. The site is free to visit and often times some well-known Magic players stream, such as Brian Kibler (bmkibler), Ceddy P (ceddy p), Jackie Lee (jackiel33), Tom Martell (tommartell) and many more. Even Star City Games and TCG Player stream their tournaments live on Twitch TV, enabling people to watch live Magic action from anywhere.

Why is this valuable? For starters, you can check out the different types of decks these well-known players are testing. While still in its infancy, live streaming could be a new way to check out up-and-coming deck strategies the pros are trying.

There’s also the added benefit that you have an opportunity to interact with the pros. Some of them respond fairly well to the chat window scrolling next to their video – a great way to ask about particular cards.

Community Is Critical

Many members of the Magic community still have the opportunity to attend weekly FNM’s, PTQ’s and an array of premier events. Through this, they are able to network with other players and build valuable connections within the community.

As the game ages, the average age of Magic players also appear to age. Many are getting married, starting families and maintaining a full time job outside of Magic. For these players, like myself, it’s very difficult to attend enough events to build that strong community.

But this doesn’t mean we can’t have one. Through multiple online channels such as Twitter, MOTL, Twitch, Quiet Speculation and more, I am well equipped to not only stay in touch with the Magic community but also contribute something valuable. I’d strongly encourage those of you in the same situations as mine to take advantage of these digital tools, which allow me to fully engage in the game of Magic and stay up to speed on trends.

That being said, attending the occasional Grand Prix can really help strengthen the bonds you make through Twitter and MOTL. There is often no replacement for meeting people in person at a major event, and I’d encourage you to at least attend one or two events a year to strengthen these connections. You’ll be glad you did.

By the way, I will be at Grand Prix Boston this weekend. If you’d like to meet, shoot me a Tweet on Saturday.

Special thinks to Yori Rubinson for this article topic suggestion.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Insider Basics: Do you talk about prices? Changing our language of trading

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I had a blast at GenCon this past weekend, mainly because I get to spend a lot of time with the larger-than-life personalities of QS , including Editor-in-Chief Tyler Tyssedal, founder Kelly Reid and established writer Corbin Hosler. We played a lot of Danger Room and we were casually trading the whole time. This week, I'm going to share what I picked up on the language of how we trade cards from watching dozens of trades happen. This is fundamental stuff but in a way, it's not a task for freshmen. Like in poker, either your personality sets you to playing the cards or playing the people, and this is for the readers who want to work with people to make trading easier and less tedious.

Observation 1: It's possible to trade without talking about price, even once.

The scene:Kelly and I are playing some Danger Room and Kelly has the front page of a personal binder open, loaded with juicy stuff, sitting on the table. We are in an area where other people are trading but it's clear that we are actually casting magical spells. The presence of the binder makes people still approach and ask if we are interested in trading.

How quickly would you trade this away?

The trades: One person walks by and his friend comes with him. The person browses Kelly's binder and doesn't see anything he's really into, but his friend is practically salivating at the Sword of Light and Shadow on the front page of the binder. "Is that for trade?" he asks. Kelly responds, "of course it is, let me see your binder and I'm sure we can work something out."

Kelly goes back to playing his turn and then flips through the friend's binder. "Here, let's make this really easy. That Sword is yours for this set of Talrands and this Restoration Angel." The guy is in love with this sword and readily parts with two of the hottest cards in Standard.

Why this is so great: at no point did Kelly say "what do you value these at?" or say "well, I put that Sword at thirty." He used the very powerful tool of moving first, making an easy proposition that looks pretty fair. Sure, Kelly could have probably ground out the guy for more cards, but in a minute, he got five really liquid Standard cards for a Commander card that is figurative binder poison, since they rarely actually move.

The takeaway: Can you make a trade without bringing up dollars? If you suggest a trade and it looks fair on the face of it, you can probably just conclude right there. Otherwise, you've set yourself up as someone who can ballpark card prices but does not come off as a grinder. If the person rejects your offer, you can just keep the negotiations going if you feel like you'd still like the cards.

Observation #2: If you ask people to be reasonable, they often end up being generous.

The scene: Again, Kelly and I are playing more Magic. He isn't actively looking for more trading partners, but people keep coming up. One guy needs to fill out his deck and he's asking for a Tragic Slip. Kelly just hands one to the guy - it's a cheap enough card, after all. A minute later, our player comes back and asks him for a Devil's Play and Kelly remarks that there's one in the binder and the guy should find it.

The trade: Our player does, indeed, find his Devil's Play and asks Kelly what he wants for it. Now, this is a card that's above bulk, but only barely. Kelly just responds along the lines of "I don't know, give me something that's not trash and I'll be fine with it." The guy then looks through his stack of cards and peels off a Rootbound Crag for him.

Why this is so great: this is some Tom Sawyer-esque level trading, even if it's for small change. Kelly recognized that there's little use in trying to get 50 cents of value out of the burn spell, so he just flipped it to this guy to make things reasonable, especially in light of just getting hooked up with a common. Kelly makes the guy look through his binder for the card and still gets a rare land that retails for about $2.00 for his time!

The takeaway: One semi-bulk rare for another? One card that's just slightly more liquid for another? These are fine trades as long as you aren't putting much time into it and you can often eke out a little extra value from it. This person gave away what was roughly an equal card to them for something of realistically much less value, and it required very little work as long as Kelly was not particularly interested in the outcome. I have half a mind to believe he would have just told the guy to take the card and leave him alone if there was nothing the guy had to offer!

Observation #3: Walk away early, walk away often

The scene: I was with another trader from my hometown at this point and two situations came up back to back that solidified this observation. We are chatting and someone fixes their fancy on his foil Dragon Broodmother. My friend proceeds to pull out some cards, then hand the pile over and say "I'll give it to you for this [fairly reasonably balanced] stack."

The trade: The person balked about trading away some of the cards, at which point my friend offered that the person could pull out those cards and he'd find something else of value. The guy backed off on whether he wanted the dragon at all, trying to get him to commit to giving it away for less. My friend handed him his cards, closed up his binder and ended the transaction.

In the other situation, someone who was starting off with the dream of running their own online store approached my friend soon after. The guy had a pretty good collection of cards in his binder but was clear that he had to make value. My friend was having none of this and said that he'd be happy to trade for some older stuff and trade out Standard cards at equal value, trading on the premise of helping this guy get more liquid stock and picking up some cards he knew he could trade. The guy was insistent on getting a "deal" from my friend, who had binders full of great Standard chase cards, and didn't understand that his Antiquities Mishra's Factories would rot in a store that needed to make quick cash flow. My buddy just packed up his cards, said he didn't think they could find a value, and politely ended the transaction.

Why this is so great: I think a lot of traders want to make the deal happen every time. Both of these instances showed that you can be picky about wanting to make the deal. You only have to buy or sell if you are getting terms that are favorable to you. In the meantime, you aren't wasting time arguing over $2 worth of value.

The takeaway: Knowing that you have the power to walk away, that you will see plenty more Sorins and Snapcasters today, should embolden you. The trade does not have to happen and you can be perfectly frank with the person you're trading with. Maybe they don't want the card very much; maybe they have a different trading style or a disagreeable personality that makes you just want to pull out. There's some sense in playing the "let's make this even" game if it's $2 on a $110 trade, but with a $2.75 trade, how invested in it are you? Do you want the hassle? Can you use the walk-away to take advantage of someone else's desire to make the deal happen every time? The fear of losing can be powerful.

What techniques do you use? How has your language evolved away from "got a binder?" and "what do you value this at?" to make you a better trader? Share in the comments below!

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Insider: Quantity vs. Quality, a Devil of a Dilemma

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Every year after I finish school, I go home. At school I’m less than 30 minutes from Minneapolis, which has a surprising number of Magic: The Gathering players, and I’m ideally positioned to drive to any one of a number of nearby PTQs if the need strikes me.

Stunning Beyond Belief
Stunning Beyond Belief

I return, however, to Anchorage, Alaska. I love Anchorage very much - the people are wonderful, the scenery is stunning, and the weather is just how I like it. But it does lack a real trading scene. There are two stores in town that do FNM’s, and those rarely have more than 15 or so people. One does GPTs and PTQs, but unless the PT in question is going to be close (think Seattle, as opposed to Atlanta), the big guns only come out to get some points.

40 people is a big number for an Alaskan tournament. And, even worse, an almost unthinkable problem arises: I’m the only one there with a trade binder.

Even at the 20 person mini FNMs in Minnesta I can keep myself busyish with trades, but in Alaska the surrounding cardpool is so small  that people have become very accustomed to not being able to find what they need from their fellow competitors. The result is that the people who need cards buy them - trading is practically nonexistent.

Unfortunately, this leaves me with a dilemma, being primarily a trader with not much to do during the summer hands on with cards. What I can tell you, however, are a couple of important things to realize when you go into a trading slump or simply end up in a place where trading is not as common.

When one leaves a state of high quantity value movement, like Minneapolis, to go to a low quantity value movement, like Alaska, one can’t depend on the same practices to make money. Thus, when the school year ends, I enter a state of financial hibernation.

One of the first things a new trader learns is the level of fluctuation different types of investments have - Vintage Power is always a good investment, Legacy staples rarely go down and Standard schlock is rarely worth investing in for the long term. As such, especially over the summer when there’s less Magic going on and the transitory formats are about to see not one but two major upheavals (new core set in the summer, new thematic set in the fall), it might not pay to still have a thousand dollars in Silverblade Paladins sitting in your binder.

Prior to GP: Minneapolis, I was split fairly evenly between Legacy and Modern/speculative/Standard cards. As you’ll know if you've read my previous articles, I advocate for small money Standard cards as the most effective way to build value quickly without ripping people off. So it should surprise no one that my stock of Silverblade Paladin, Restoration Angels and Innistrad duals were of a quantity and value that many would classify as obscene.

Knowing that the frozen wasteland that is my home state

Literally Colder Than This.

would give me no opportunity to take advantage of deckbuilding trends, let alone a way to dump useless stock, I dedicated myself to building up a collection of cards that I knew would maintain value throughout the summer and not face any chance of crashing whatsoever. Starting that day, I began to cash out my Standard stock.

As of today, I have over a thousand dollars in fetchlands, and another 800 in Legacy staples. I have a single promo Silverblade Paladin and one normal Restoration Angel - many of the INN duals were sold to purchase a German NM Tropical Island. White bordered, before you get too excited.

This has allowed me comfort in the knowledge that no matter what happens to the market over these few months when I’m utterly removed from the physical world of Magic finance, I will not lose all of my investment to changing trends.

One of my best friends did not engage in this practice, partly because I forgot to tell him to, and is now finding what was once a plump binder at the end of the last school year is now rather dismally outdated trading material.

Obviously that very simple lesson wasn’t worth its own article, and to drag it out into one would be a waste of your, not to mention my, precious time.

Therefore, I have another opinion to present to you, one that isn’t too time intensive, but one I hope you will appreciate. This is the debate between having a small, potent binder that covers a lot of bases, or carrying around a backpack with every card ever made in it.

Potency vs. Potpourri

May your binder never look like this. Egads.

I’m the first to admit that, for many, the best choice of how you manage your binder is the one you feel most comfortable with.

Here are the basic grounds by which I judge the value of these two approaches:

  1. There’s total investment into your stock and the risk involved
  2. You have the appearance of these options to non-traders
  3. You have flexibility when it comes to trends, bannings, etc.
  4. Finally, you have the time involved.

Let’s start with point one!

It should be readily apparent that a person with a half full binder is probably going to spend much less time and money on his collection than the guy hauling a suitcase around full of cards. Money wise, the investment is massive in comparison - if you just take the good cards from one binder and spread them around to three or four binders full of rubbish, the advantages involved in having options are suddenly lost.

A major floor trader might keep 2-10 copies of as many cards as possible to supply any demand, but that obviously requires more investment than my binder, which looks skimpy in comparison. If you have very little money to spend, is it worth the up front price of all those cards to have the extra options for an interested customer?

Aside: If you answered that you had the cards anyway and you didn’t spend your money on them, you’re missing the point. Those cards are money. They are an investment. Regardless of whether you bought them as singles, simply having them means that money can’t be put into other things. Like rent. It’s cool to have a sweet collection. Is it worth not eating well? I submit that it is not. End aside.

In addition to this money issue, can you afford to lose it? If I lose my binder, I take a hit, but I still have cash set aside in a bank account. It would be a tragedy, but not backbreaking for my life as a whole. If you lose your 15,000 dollar collection on a GP floor because you took your hand off the suitcase for ten seconds, how do you reconcile that with yourself? The risk is easily dealt with through a standard of vigilance, but it nevertheless exists.

Second consideration!

When a player, casual or otherwise, looks at a guy with a binder and a deckbox, they probably aren’t too wary of him.

If that same guy had the binder alone, most people would probably acknowledge that he’s there to trade.

Is there a psychological difference between seeing that and seeing a guy walk up with a rolling suitcase full of binders, organized by price? Of course there is. This is obviously not a gamebreaker, since being seen as the eminent authority when it comes to paper product acquisitions would help your business, but the risk of being labeled a shark would be a definite risk for you.

Consideration, the third!

I turned my entire collection over from Standard crap with some Legacy material to almost an entirely Legacy collection in less than three weeks.

Can you do that with your suitcase?

My vote is probably not, simply because there aren’t enough peak trading hours in the week to move that kind of product at small events. At that point, I would submit that you resign yourself to some level of financial loss if some of your product rotates, gets banned or falls out of favor.

Fourth and finally

You have my most important point - Time!

There are a few factors involved here, some obvious and some less so.

Obviously, if you have a large stock of cards, you have to organize them to find what you need. And, if you don’t, you have to spend more time looking for the cards you want to pull. Less obviously - how long does it take people to look through your binder?

 

Let’s let that little tidbit sink in. If you’re doing exactly what I told you to do in my previous articles, you’re trading small cards at high margins. If a trade takes you 5 minutes, you can make 12 trades an hour with solid consistency. If you’re trading those small cards out of eight binders, how much longer does it take people to find what they’re looking for? How likely is it that those small trades are going to make more money off the suitcase method than the single binder approach. Not only are the trades not bigger (nobody wants 200 dollars worth of Silverblade Paladins), but they’re taking longer to boot.

 

Let’s throw in a consideration on top of that. If a person goes through your binder and sees a couple cards they’re kind of interested in, and you find a Zendikar fetch, you could probably make the trade work.

If they go through 6 binders, what are the chances they’ll settle for the mediocre card? They know you’ve got better stuff, they just have to hold out. I’ve used this approach to consistent success, refusing to commit to a trade that doesn’t allow me to pull juicy cards.

If you have one Onslaught fetch in your binder of Standard stuff, nobody’s going to waste your time with a truly bad offer, let alone refuse to trade their Bonfire of the Damned unless you bust out your Heath.

If you have 7 Heaths, and 6 of each other fetch, you become an easier target in many eyes - you have so many, you should be willing to part with them for less. You don’t need that many, and it’s unfair and sharkish to refuse the fair offer of Bonfire for Heath, since they’re pretty close retail. It’s not like you’d be losing. It’d be a drop in the pond.

I’m not saying it’s perfect, or that it’ll work for everyone - a lot of people do very well with the suitcase, I’m just not one of them, but here’s my approach: I keep a small binder for several reasons. I’m not a rich man and can’t afford a large collection, I need that money elsewhere and I can’t afford to lose all of my money in one place. I also think I come across better as a friendly fellow player that just happens to want to trade than as a hardcore grinder with all the cards in the world - which also means I don’t get as many people coming to me for their every need, but that’s the trade off.

Having a small collection allows me to turn its focus on a dime, something a larger collection can’t. My fetchland density per card would be impossible with a much larger collection, and I keep plenty of value lying around to facilitate those turnarounds.

I can also afford to spend much less time maintaining my collection because of my ability to move it around so quickly - I don’t have to organize, I don’t have to go to every FNM, and, most importantly, I can make trades happen more quickly and more efficiently than my competitors on the floor. I can pull my pet cards from the binder as I get them and stick them in my deckbox, which makes me look like a player. And I don’t get any questions about how a person with Molten Psyche and a Baneslayer Angel for rares could get their hands on my Force of Wills.

In the end, it’s personal preference, but I hope that this gives you a brief understanding of what I consider to be both sides of the issue.

If you have any questions, comments or snide remarks, I look forward to reading them in the comments section!

Avatar photo

Tucker McGownd

Hi, I'm Tucker McGownd. I'm a low risk trader that spends most of my time in Minnesota, where I go to school, play magic, study for school, play Ultimate for my college team, study for school, and read. I've been playing for a long, long time (I first played during Mercadian Masques block, and first bought a pack in Urza's Saga). I was incredibly lucky when I cracked packs until I learned how much cards were worth, at which point I proceeded to open Thoughtlace in every set until Scars, where I picked up more than my fair share of molten psyche. I'm currently looking forward to the inevitable reprint of Chimney Imp.

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Posted in Free Insider2 Comments on Insider: Quantity vs. Quality, a Devil of a Dilemma

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Insider: Why MTGO Redemption Matters

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An oft-heard complaint about playing Magic online is that you don't actually own anything, even though you're putting money into the game. Cardboard has value - you can touch it, play with, sell it, it's yours to do what you will. If WoTC goes belly up, you can still play with all your cards indefinitely. The same cannot be said for MTGO.

WoTC actually owns everything to do with the online version of Magic. Although you have cards in your collection and you are buying and selling digital objects in what appears to be a free market, no single piece of your collection is truly yours. WoTC owns them, and they are just letting you use them according to the terms of service.

In practice, though, you have complete control of your collection and players and dealers alike feel confident enough that WoTC is a benevolent power that will not upset it's customers. Since players clearly believe in the fiction of ownership in digital objects, this belief breathes value into the cards, packs and tix of MTGO.

The other process that gives digital objects value is redemption.

The Details of Redemption

Redemption is a large and mostly unseen presence, working in the background of the MTGO market. It connects the digital market of MTGO with the real world market. Once you collect an entire set, you can redeem that online set for a physical copy for a small fee. The digital set is destroyed and WoTC ships you a factory sealed version. This provides a link to the real world, which keeps prices of redeemable sets somewhat in line with cardboard prices. Getting these in the mail is even more fun than you'd imagine.

If the online market gets flooded with a ton of cards, then redeemers will step up their activity in order to capitalize on the relatively cheap digital cards. If cardboard prices take off for a particular set, then redeemers likewise have an incentive to get to work. In both cases, redemption acts as a stabilizing mechanism which keeps digital and cardboard prices closer than they otherwise would.

Shards block and M10 are no longer available for redemption and Zendikar block and M11 will not be available for redemption after November 5th of this year. Details on redemption cut off dates are at the bottom of this page. You'll notice a column titled Redemption Guarantee Date. WoTC will keep producing factory sets until this date and then after that redemption orders will only be filled until their stock runs out. It's unusual that they run out of stock, but it bears keeping in mind.

Below is a table which holds sets from the last four years, along with prices from Supernova Bots on complete sets (prices in tix as of Aug 12, 2012) and beside that are prices from SCG (prices in $US as of Aug 12, 2012). The last column is a simple ratio where the price of online sets are divided by the price of cardboard sets. This allows some conjecture based on the ratio's value. As a side note, SCG might have inflated prices relative to eBay and your LGS, but it's not a big concern because the useful information is in the ratio - where we consider the the relative price of digital sets versus cardboard.

What Do the Numbers Say?

Set Supernova Bots Star City Games Ratio
Shards of Alara 41 175 .23
Conflux 46 140 .33
Alara Reborn 30 110 .27
Magic 2010 34 150 .23
Zendikar 125 225 .56
Worldwake 96 130 .74
Rise of the Eldrazi 134 175 .77
Magic 2011 62 150 .41
Scars of Mirrodin 75 200 .38
Mirrodin Besieged 64 160 .40
New Phyrexia 107 175 .61
Magic 2012 73 200 .37
Innistrad 107 200 .54
Dark Ascension 91 200 .46
Avacyn Restored 145 275 .53
Magic 2013 87 260 .33

 

 

 

 

 

From the chart, it is obvious that the sets that are no longer redeemable have plunged in price online relative to IRL prices. The four lowest ratios are all held by the Shards block sets and M10. This suggests that speculators should be aware of pending cutoff dates in order to not get caught with depreciating assets such as the Eldrazi monsters.

Elspeth, Knight Errant, Noble Hierarch and Maelstrom Pulse are the three most expensive digital cards from Shards block, suggesting that playability in Eternal formats is what drives the price of cards after the redemption cut off date. Staples such as the Zendikar fetch lands will hold their value over time, but something like Eldrazi Monument might not.

As a block, Zendikar holds the highest ratios. This is not surprising, as redemption demand would have steadily reduced the online supply of cards and drafting of Zen block wrapped up last October.

Although M10's ratio is in line with Shards block, you might ask why M11 has such a low ratio compared to the Zen block sets. One hypothesis is that there are quite a few Eternal staples in Zen block, including the fetch lands, Jace, The Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic, while M11 only has a handful of fringe Eternal cards that have seen multiple printings, such as Birds of Paradise and Jace Beleren.

The Scars block ratios are a bit all over the place but have been coming down as rotation nears. Expect further erosion in these ratios as players let go of their Scars block cards and look forward to Fall Standard.

In and around October, the price of Scars block cards will bottom out with players dumping their former Standard staples for tix. After that, expect a gradual increase in the value of the Scars block mythics as redeemers seek to capitalize on the difference in price between digital and cardboard sets.

As a general rule, Fall rotation is the best time to be picking up Eternal staples and depressed mythics from the sets that have just left Standard.

Magic 2013 is not yet available for redemption, so it's ratio is still relatively low. Release events will finish on Aug 15th, and redemption will start up at the end of the month. At that time, the price of M13 cards as a whole will have found a near term bottom. In the meantime, be sure to round out the playsets of the cards that you like from M13. For the most part, the mythics won't get cheaper for a while.

The Choke Point

A combination of factors ensures that a given set's price will largely be determined by the price of its mythic rares. Outside of Eternal staples, the only cards to hold value after rotation are mythic rares.

Mythics are the choke point of redemption. In order to redeem a set, you need a copy of every card from that set. Mythics are the hardest to come by, therefore they command the highest prices in the market. The sheer amount of drafting that occurs online limits the value of rares, and bulk rares routinely sell for .05 tix or less. Most of the value of a set is locked within the mythics.

As good speculators, this means that over the next few months, target only Eternal staples and mythics. Here are some examples from last year showing when a few mythics bottomed out in price.

The chart for Nissa Revane shows a bottom in early September of around 3.5 tix. If you had waited till the end of October, you still could have bought in for an attractive 5.5 tix. The chart shows a steady uptrend following rotation, with some price weakness and the possible beginning of a downtrend after July.

This chart is more typical of a junk mythic, and the bottom occurs much earlier in the year in mid-April. Once again, though, if you had bought during Innistrad release events, you still would have enjoyed a tidy profit by the turn of the calendar year.

 

Another junk mythic, this chart shows another early bottom at the beginning of May. If you had bought Cast Through Time at rotation, you would be hard pressed to turn a profit on this card. It appears that playability still matters to the price of a card. In this case, Cast Through Time truly is junk and even redemption did not impact the price strongly enough for a speculator to turn a profit.

Keep this in mind when buying mythics in the Fall. Playability still matters. If a card has zero casual appeal, the market might have enough copies floating around to satisfy demand from redeemers.

Lastly, here's an example of a card that saw steady play in Standard as part of vampire decks and sees fringe play in Modern as part of Small Pox decks. Clearly not the definition of an Eternal staple, buying these up at rotation would have yielded next to no profit. Rares are plentiful enough that redemption has little impact on their price at any time.

* * * * *

Redemption is a key part of the MTGO economy and market. It subtly supports the prices of in print cards and can drive up the price of rotated mythics. Using this knowledge, combined with some basic market timing tied to rotation, it's possible to reap consistent profits with little to no risk. For example, Quicksilver Gargantuan was at .35 tix in July of 2011. Mythics this cheap are almost always worth moving on (and if you have doubts, ask in the QS MTGO forum). It climbed up to 1.1 tix and settled to .7 tix at this point. This junk mythic doubled and tripled in price, based only on redeemers.

Like I said, consistent profits, little risk.

Matthew Lewis

Matt Lewis currently lives in Ottawa, Canada and is a long time player and PTQ grinder who now speculates and plays exclusively on MTGO. He's always ready to discuss ideas and investment strategies, so drop him a line in the comments, the forums or on modo, username mattlewis.

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Posted in Finance, Free, Free Finance, Free Insider, MTGO, Unlocked9 Comments on Insider: Why MTGO Redemption Matters

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Insider: Where Will All the Fatties Go?

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Standard PTQ season is winding down as we anticipate Return to Ravnica spoilers and From the Vault: Realms. Many of the cards we considered Standard staples, in addition to some that rarely made an appearance, will continue to experience demand in other formats after leaving Type 2.

I have had some discussions with the EDH crowd at my local store and tried to form some opinions about the soon-to-rotate mythic rares. Commander was an instant hit among casual play groups, especially those that had already played the previous incarnation of EDH. Many of the competitive types were resistant to play a casual format, but in my experience, more and more competitive players are delving into the “fun zone”.

Primeval Titan

This guy has ranged as high as $40 and as low as $8, which is about where he sits today. He has obviously defined big green decks in Standard for the last two years. He’s also been a Commander staple since the moment he was printed and will forever be included in every green deck hereafter.

Of the group I polled, a majority said they were hoping to pick up another Primeval Titan after rotation to fill out a second deck or replace a proxy. I expect we’ll see the Titan continue to dip from now through rotation, but then after just a few months rebound back to $8 or higher. If it falls to $6 or lower, I’m going to pick them up as aggressively as possible.

While it’s unlikely, he could see some applications in Modern, but for now the ramp deck (Tron) doesn’t need to play green. I see moving in on him around $6 as a very safe play due to his huge demand in Commander, with massive possible upside if he makes a real deck in Modern.

Consecrated Sphinx

Consecrated Sphinx saw his day in Standard as part of the grindiest control deck to see play in quite some time (U/B Drownyard). Since the printing of Cavern of Souls, control decks have all but disappeared, and cards like Consecrated Sphinx don’t hold up well against Vapor Snag. Now found at some retail stores for $4, I think it’s a good buy.

As another card that will see consistent play in Commander (unless it gets banned), this dude will eventually climb back up to the $6-8 range. I expect that to take some time, as people will be unloading Standard stock for a while, but once he's no longer sitting in every trade binder in your LGS, his price will start to climb. If you didn’t sell yours earlier in the year, I’d hang on to them now.

Wurmcoil Engine

Of all the options for speculators, this one will see the most play outside of Commander. Wurmcoil Engine is a key piece in a Legacy Goblin Welder deck, providing fuel to continue ‘welding’ him in and out of play. Due to his colorlessness and unique combination of abilities, a variety of strategies might want this guy for Modern in the future.

However, his applications in Commander aren’t as exciting. While he does see Commander play, he doesn’t have an “Enters the Battlefield” effect, and the death trigger just doesn’t matter enough in multiplayer games. That being said, he’s aggressively costed and the lifelink/deathtouch combination is certainly powerful.

Some of the people I’ve talked to said they thought he would maintain his current price, but I see him falling at least a little. Wurmcoil dropped as low as $6 on eBay during his lifetime in Standard, and I really don’t see his long-term price rising any higher than that. Especially since there is a promo copy available, these aren’t going to be very difficult to find.

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

This seven-drop has been on a steady decline from $20 to $10 since March when it was a four-of in Unburial Rites decks. Now it sees play in some Birthing Pod lists, but most have moved away from it; however, this card does see play as a one-of in Reanimator in Legacy and as a win condition in U/W Tron in Modern. You’ll see it at EDH tables, but it’s by no means a format staple.

This card should drop as low as $7, maybe lower, by the time rotation hits, and I expect it to climb back to $10 for Modern season next year. We’ll have to reevaluate this card near November to decide if we should pick it up in anticipation of Modern season.

The “Sleeper” Praetors

While Elesh Norn isn’t a complete powerhouse in EDH, Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur and Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger are. Both of these cards can be found under $3 at various retailers.

Many of mono-blue combo decks in EDH play the Core Augur to refill their hand or strip hate from the hands of their opponent. In a format where ten mana isn’t necessarily prohibitive, he has a huge effect. Likewise, in Legacy Reanimator he often saw play, but now that Griselbrand is an option we may see less of him there. Drawing cards without paying life is nice, especially since the life loss from Reanimate is often significant, but Jin-Gitaxias is much more vulnerable to removal.

Still, I think in the distant future this card will have disappeared from trade binders, and people who want it for EDH will be forced to pay $5. I don’t suggest a buy-and-hold now, but if the price falls further, I’d jump in.

[card Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger]Vorinclex[/card] is a nasty beast to play against in EDH because his effect can literally lock people out of the game. The green decks that are focused on ramping (See: Most Green Decks in Commander) can power him out early enough to cripple opponents and progress the ramp plan. Since he's green, you can easily tutor for him in a variety of ways, and I’ve seen many Commander games end nearly instantly when a player slams their Vorinclex.

At under $2 I like him as a buy. I’m going to pick up eight copies to start with, and if he continues to fall I may pick up eight more. This card could easily stabilize at $4-5 half a year from now.

Notable Omissions

I get all of my charts from BlackLotusProject.com, if you're looking to do any peeking around yourself. While rotation isn't generally a great time to be buying, the targets I like are cards that gain value long-term as they disappear from trade binders. Some other cards I considered but ultimately didn't find promising were Karn Liberated, [card Sheoldred, Whispering One]Sheoldred[/card], Myr Battlesphere, Blightsteel Colossus, and the remaining Core Set titans.

What other casual cards that are likely to see higher value down the line am I missing? Let me know in the comments or the QS forums.

Counter Repost in Kansas City

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We didn’t get there in Kansas City.

I made a pretty egregious punt in round one in the middle of doing sweet things, which put the kibosh on my tournament. Remember to sacrifice your opponent's Birthing Pod to Phyrexia's Core when you Phantasmal Image their Zealous Conscripts kids!

After that I spent a few rounds doing some mulliganing and ultimately dropped at 3-3. I was pretty disappointed with the result, but I’m not stupid enough to believe that the result of one event means much in terms of a deck’s viability. I still believe that Counter Repost is a fine choice for a Standard deck, as most of its matchups are favorable… when you play them correctly.

For reference, this is the 75 that I sleeved up in KC:

Counter Repost

spells

3 Phantasmal Image
4 Mana Leak
4 Ponder
4 Vapor Snag
4 Ichor Wellspring
2 Trading Post
2 Wurmcoil Engine
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Pristine Talisman
2 Phyrexian Metamorph
3 Mental Misstep
2 Dismember

lands

2 Buried Ruin
4 Phyrexias Core
16 Island

sideboard

2 Cavern of Souls
2 Consecrated Sphinx
3 Steel Sabotage
1 Negate
2 Dissipate
1 Phantasmal Image
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Mental Misstep
1 Batterskull

You’ll notice that I cut the Spine of Ish Sah. It certainly generated a lot of value, but it never really did anything better than just having a Wurmcoil Engine. Recurring Vindicate is, in fact, strong, but it doesn’t gain a million life, generate tokens or actually kill your opponent.

Let’s talk about some matchups:

Zombies

Provided that you don’t mulligan to five, the zombies matchup is very close to a bye. I’ve been indiscriminately casting Mental Misstep on their one drop if I have i,t considering that you lose the same amount of life on turn two whether they have another one drop zombie or not. I think that it’s fair enough to bet against them, seeing that if they don’t have it you buy a lot of time, and if they do, nothing really changes. It can be slightly awkward if their second turn play is Diregraf Ghoul plus rebuy Gravecrawler, but it’s not like we have any way of predicting this.

Watch out for these cards:

Messenger and Aristocrat are basically the only cards you really have to worry about, and Cavern can make them very difficult to handle. You’ll have to Vapor Snag Messenger more than you’ll probably like to, but this matchup is all about buying enough time to start gaining life with Trading Post and Wurmcoil Engine.

Wolf Run RUG

If you like grinds, you're in for a treat. Interestingly, the biggest problem cards in this matchup are all lands:


Cavern makes it so that you’ll have to use your Mana Leaks at any open window. Once they name Giant and play a Primeval Titan, your Leaks will be all but dead.

I’ve found that cloning and Snagging Titans is a winning strategy, but actually killing Inkmoth Nexus is a must. In the main your only out is Dismember, so game one can be rather awkward. This is the reason we have Ghost Quarters on the sideboard. You’re already planning on cloning their Titans anyway, so killing their Inkmoth is pretty much a sure thing in post-board games. Most lists can only afford to play one Inkmoth and one Wolf Run, so I find that Post is very favored in sideboarded games.

Birthing Pod

I think that this matchup is quite favorable, but it is very difficult to play. Knowing what to clone and when is of paramount importance. If you can buy enough time to get an active Post and a Wurmcoil, you should be able to win - just make sure to leave up Post or Core to play around Zealous Conscripts. Their best card is obviously Birthing Pod itself, so be sure to leave up Mana Leak in the early turns.

Delver

This is Post’s toughest matchup by a mile. How things play out are pretty heavily impacted by how good your opponent is, so your numbers will look better at an FNM than a PTQ. You have a fair number of outs to Delver of Secrets and Geist of Saint Traft, but Restoration Angel and Cavern of Souls can be real problems. Runechanter’s Pike can also give you fits.

This is the matchup that you’ll definitely need to practice for if you want to be able to beat it. There are just too many variables that affect your play, not the least of which being your perception of how your opponent will play.

Dungrove Green

This matchup is pretty tough to lose. Having Mental Misstep for Rancor is a tremendous boon. They can’t play Cavern, so you’ll often just be able to Leak Dungrove Elder. I’m almost positive that this deck can’t beat a Wurmcoil Engine, so this matchup is no sweat.

Esper and Other Such Control Decks

Aaaaaaaand, we’re back in grind city. I don’t think that I overstate things when I say that Wurmcoil Engine plus Trading Post is the most powerful endgame currently available in Standard, but Sun Titan + Phantasmal Image can give you a run for your money. Fortunately we have our own Images to call.

If you play smart with your Wurms, I think you’re very favored in control mirrors, though Mental Misstep can be somewhat embarrassing. Just make sure to leave up Buried Ruin and Trading Post to properly combat opposing Nihil Spellbombs.

A Few Notes on the Deck

One thing that was incredibly frustrating that became apparent in KC was this this deck absolutely does not punish your opponent’s mulligans, and it absolutely feels the impact of its own.

I think that 22 lands is probably a little too greedy. Trimming a Misstep for another Island (or Buried Ruin if you’re feeling saucy) makes sense to me.

I am very much enjoying the Trading Post engine, but I feel that I might be winning more games in spite of the blue shell rather than because of it. Ponder has been really good considering the low frequency of high impact cards in the deck, but Cavern of Souls has embarrassed a lot of my Mana Leaks.

This all in mind, I think that I’m going to take a second look at my red build. It is in need of a few tweaks, such as probably wanting more Phyrexian Metamorphs, but it's much better at just killing opponents and plays zero cards that are impacted by Cavern of Souls. I’ll post an updated list if this is the direction I decide to go.

~

While Kansas City did not go swimmingly, I am still pretty happy with Counter Repost. The deck generates a lot of interesting decision trees and does some very powerful things. If that’s what your into, then you should definitely give it a try.

Good luck, high five.

-Ryan Overturf

Insider: My Plan to Own GenCon

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There is a huge amount of excitement for GenCon this year, with the World Championships along with the FNM championships going on. That does not even mention events like the Vintage Champs that happen every year. Along with every other game you can imagine. By the time you read this I’ll be on the floor trading and/or just hanging out. As everyone says, GenCon is an amazing event, and you’re doing yourself a disservice to spend the entire time trading.

There have been several really good primers written already about GenCon, and you can find Doug Linn’s here and Ryan Bushard’s here.

With all of that in mind, I figure you’re not in need of another generic GenCon primer, as helpful as they are. Instead, I want to share with you my strategy for this weekend, which conveniently also applies to just about any large event you go to.

The plan

To spell it out clearly, my goals for this weekend are simple: make a lot of money and have a lot of fun. And hope that one of those doesn’t impede on the other. And, since I live in Oklahoma, I get to start the fun with a 12-hour drive!

So how do I plan on maximizing my profits this weekend? Before I get into specifics, let’s acknowledge all the usual methods to profit from trading.

-       Trade up without giving a premium.

-       Trade down only if the premium you are getting makes the deal worth it in cash values.

-       Take advantage of knowledge discrepancies in pricing.

-       Utilize pricing discrepancies to maximize profit, such as SCG OOS (out of stock) pricing, using SCG to trade up, TCG to trade down, etc…

-       Turn Standard cards into Legacy/Modern/Casual staples.

-       Speculate on underpriced cards.

These are all the usual tricks we know about and use. Every trade I make this weekend will hinge on those tried-and-true techniques, as usual. But there’s another trick I have up my sleeve, one that only works at relatively few events a year.

The idea

I came upon this idea quite generically, really, at GenCon last year. At the time, the PT in Nagoya had shown that White Weenie Tempered Steel builds were dominating Block strategies, and dealers had already begun buying accordingly for the upcoming Standard season.

So what did this mean for me? It meant that the breakout card of the Pro Tour, Hero of Bladehold, had already started to climb. In fact, some dealers were buying for $6 that weekend, which was an absurdly good buy price at the time. They were also buying the promo version of the card at just a dollar less than the regular version.

Only one thing made this particularly relevant – no one on the trade floor knew about it. People understood that Hero was good, some even knew that the price had gone up some. But because they hadn’t put in as much preparation as me, they got burned.

I traded for every Hero I could find in that two days, and I didn’t give more than $8 on trade for any of them, because very few people realized the price was climbing toward $10. If this doesn’t automatically set off a lightbulb in your mind, it should. Giving $8 in trade on Standard cards and getting a 75% return in cash value is absurd. Even with optimal buylist pricing, you’re usually around 60%, and often lower on Standard cards.

And this doesn’t touch on the fact that because people “knew” the promo version was cheaper, I got a ton at $5 in trade, which is actually just selling whatever I traded them for full retail price.

Applying it

“Sure, you got lucky last year at one event, who cares?”           

-- ­Cynical You.

I’m able to do this at nearly every event I go to. All it takes is some hard work. Doing your homework and shopping and memorizing buylists from around the dealer hall (or GP room) isn’t the most fun. But it pays off again and again. At GP: Nashville this year it was Birds of Paradise and Black Suns Zenith. Then it was Geralfs Messenger. A month or so back it was Bonfire of the Damned.

The trick to making this work is not to simply shop buylists around the room, something I’ve talked about before. I know you see the value in that, and it will make you money time and again.

But there’s more to it than that. If you’re on the trade floor much, or even just your FNM, you have a general idea what most cards trade for. And you can put that knowledge to work long before you even get on the trade floor and have to deal with smartphones and the like. Simply find a target for the weekend by comparing the spread between buy price and trade price, and formulate a plan.

There’s another benefit to having a plan in place, especially at an event like a GP or Open, where most players are leery about trading with someone who could be a shark. Approaching someone to initiate a trade can sometimes put people on the back foot, and even more so if you pull out two or three binders and tell them you’re not looking for anything in particular. By having a target for the weekend, you will immediately put people more at ease because they don’t think you’re only there to rip them off.

And the truth is, you’re not. You’re simply taking advantage of dealer discrepancies. Even if the majority of dealers online are only paying $4 for a particular card, the needs of individual companies on a given weekend fluctuate, and maybe someone needs it badly enough to pay $6 this weekend. Because you’ve found a proper target, you can make a straight-across trade of cards from the same set and still come out two dollars ahead. Over and over, all while still making value from the tools you already have in your repertoire.

This effect is magnified at events with new technology for formats. Someone piloting a breakout deck in Legacy or Modern creates a “weekend price” that’s far beyond what the rest of the marketplace is. We saw this effect with Show and Tell and Sneak Attack, which both shot absurdly high at the last SCG Invitational.

Find us at GenCon and get some free Spirit Tokens!

Now, to own GenCon

I don’t know what my target will be this weekend. I have hopes of finding a dealer with a good buy price on Champion of Lambholt, which most people give away as bulk. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see something like Terminus pop up.

Whatever it is, you’ll see me employing this technique out on the trade floor, and I’m expecting an awesome weekend! If you’re there, make sure to come say hi. I’ll have some really sweet Spirit Tokens custom made for my financial/deckbuilding podcast, Brainstorm Brewery.

See you there!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Across the Atlantic – European Fundamentals

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Hello readers, my name is Gervaise Pechler. Besides being a motivated Magic player, I am a passionate speculator, professional poker player and a Bachelor student in Business & Psychology. I became exposed to trading card games at the age of eight when Pokemon took over the world, following up with Dragonball Z, LOTR, .hack//enemy, Magic: the Gathering and even Pirates. I will be mainly discussing my speculation and trades here in Europe.

There is a lot of Insider information about how to capitalize on cards, which American index to use, which decks and new cards T8’ed in a SCG Open and what price changes occur in dollars. But the Magic world is so much more than that! TCGplayer and StarCityGames are two of the biggest in the USA, but incidentally pose high costs for EU residents due to import tax, currency costs and the longer waiting time to get the actual cards.

I'll be using this first article to introduce you to Europe and Magic Finance. This is largely my view on where to get, sell and trade cards, because Europe has large submarkets like Spain (with its Spanish cards), as well as Italy and Germany. Still, those countries produce, play, sell and buy English cards. I am most familiar with the UK and Benelux (Netherlands & Belgium) market. I am discovering other markets as we speak by traveling and meeting people who can guide me in the right direction.

In Europe, there is no big retailer like StarCityGames that covers the whole continent and organizes big tournaments every week. The stores that I consider "big" are present at PTQs, GPTs and other major tournaments. For example, in the UK, you have Manaleak.com and MagicMadHouse.co.uk, which also covers Northern-Ireland and Scotland. These sites are ideal to pick up under-appreciated cards during the PTQs and by using their buylists. I bought Etched Champions at £1 each, which is a good price for me to speculate on when the Modern Season is starting again.

Community based card exchanges

Most Dutch card websites are based on a community where you can also trade cards with other users. This is particularly great because there is a lot of casual demand, which boosts the prices of cards you probably want to get rid of, anyway.

A prime example would be on Nedermagic.com with Havengul Lich. It is not the cheapest shop but has the most traffic & stock in the country. Havengul Lich is selling for €8 with a buylist price of €3. Black Lotus Project, on the other hand, shows this as selling for $2.64. Getting this card cheap from other markets and trading or selling it away to this website makes me want to participate in ‘community’-based retail sites, since most players will memorize the price at €8, allowing me the uptrade that I want.

Another use of these sites is their up-to-date buylists. There is a bonus when you trade in cards for other cards and a "penalty" if you simply want cash. I can automatically uptrade if I want, because the buylist is huge.

To summarize, these sites are great to trade cards with other players, selling or trading in your cards with the vendor, and utilizing their up to date card prices to supply some underpriced cards from other markets.

Marketplaces

Another type of site I frequent is user-to-user marketplaces. The most famous one is eBay, which I used to use a lot back when I was living in the Netherlands. I bought cards from the US and Asia when the Euro was strong and, being very lucky, never had to pay for import tax.

Nowadays there is a European marketplace for Magic players called www.TCGmarket.eu where you can buy & sell Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, WoW & spoils. It charges a 5% flat fee on every sale you make and the interface is clear and accepts PayPal for instant payment. The downside with using PayPal is that they charge an uncapped fee. It is the classical time versus cost debate. I mostly use this website to search for old EDH cards, still undervalued Standard cards and for looking up if a seller is underpricing his collection so I can actually make a profit.

Let’s use Restoration Angel as an example, as it is a popular card:

US Prices

  • StarCityGames: $12.99 - Sold Out
  • BlackLotusProject: $8.71
  • TCGplayer.mid: $10.89

Europe

  • Manaleak.com (UK): £8 ($14.8)
  • Nedermagic.com (NL): €8.95 ($11) - Sold Out
  • TCGmarket.eu (EU): from €5.5 ($6.77)

Since TCGmarket merges a lot of sellers together, there are common priceshifts. The sellers who offer the lowest prices mostly only have a single copy for sale and are often non-English, non NM. The following screenshot brings one to the page of Restoration Angel on the website:

For example, when I want to buy the cheapest Restoration Angel, I tend to look at the seller's other singles to see if I can combine cheap singles with others to ease the shipping cost per card.

Another use of TCGmarket.eu is for when cards are preselling. Several big sellers are offering the cards in presale just like StarCityGames. The advantage the buyer gets is that there is fierce competition between those sellers, so the prices are attractive. At the same time, when a card gets hot during presale, one has to be quick. You can buy up to 16 or 32 copies from a single vendor, which makes it very convenient for me to use TCGmarket.eu over the traditional retail sites.

I tend to avoid sealed products on this website as one is charged with a €20 shipping cost at the very least. Although cheap (Italian Counterpunch sell at €30 while it is $60 & sold out at StarCityGames ), it generally requires multiple units to cover the shipping cost and, even then, I have to put a lot of effort into finding potential buyers to buy from me.

To summarize, user-to-user marketplaces like TCGmarket.eu are an ideal place to find real bargains for direct resell value or to make your trade binder look more enticing. I do not have a sellers account yet, but I tend to only put cards up that are worth selling, which should mostly be cards that I can get more for than if I would be selling it to a vendor directly.

Off the radar

There are also a lot of small internet stores. They are pretty hard to find and sometimes I wonder if they are still operating. If I happen to find one, I usually check if they have the newest set as well. If they have it, they should still be operating.

I primarily use these shops for pure value, which means picking through each set to find underpriced/outdated cards. These small shops are may not use buylists and when they do, they mostly give low price quotes. It is basically grinding through their stock and evaluating whether this Sliver Legion listed at $7.00 is worth more elsewhere.

I am looking to write some more about this as it is a new and exciting experience for me, but know I can improve the methodology.

Local Games Stores

Finally there is the LGS that I frequent. They have three weekly tournaments, which are on Tuesday (Draft), Thursday (Standard) and Friday (Sealed).

Draft and Standard evenings are less popular and filled with more regulars, who are not terribly fond of trading. When they trade, they just need something for their decks, which I frequently have. It's fine but not a goldmine.

The Friday Sealed event is packed with more casual players as Sealed is considered a steep entry price for most regular players. I typically attend in order to perform trades and establish new EDH connections.

The LGS itself has binders from Lorwyn and the famous ‘2 for 1 euro’-bulkbox. I've found the most interesting cards in these bulkboxes. For example, I've managed to find a foil Student of Warfare and Preeminent Captain.

I know some local game stores have set prices, but I feel these are not set in stone. One can negotiate heavily about the prices and, if all else fails, you can trade overpriced cards in for a free draft or for other cards that they undervalue.

As this is my first article for QS, I would like to have as much feedback as I can to improve my writing and cover topics of interest. I am open to any discussion where we both can learn from as I am continuously perfecting my craft in the Paper Magic world. Thank you for reading.

- Gerv

Introducing a New Format Called The Danger Room

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What if you could play hundreds of the best cards in Magic and not worry about mana? Isn't it cool to think about drawing off the top of a giant deck and playing what comes up?

The Danger Room is a new way to play Magic. It uses a shared box of cards, meaning that you can play it with everyone, and it is very simple to learn. It was designed by my teammate Brian Demars to evoke a certain kind of Magic game. The Danger Room excites me more than just about any other format at the moment and I am eager to share the game with you.

Brian plays a lot of Magic and observed that most of the time, he wasn't getting what he came for in his games, no matter what the format. He concluded that:

25% of the time, one player wins a game of Magic because the other player got mana-screwed

25% of the time, one player wins because the other player got mana-flooded

25% of the time, one player wins because they played a huge bombastic unanswerable spell, like Cruel Ultimatum

The last 25% of the time, both players get to cast a lot of spells, they trade monsters in combat and play an enjoyable, long game of Magic.

The Danger Room aims to slice off that last quarter of games and maximize their potential. This means that the games typically last awhile – 20 minutes to half an hour, at least. They are filled with interesting combinations and card trades and they don't have the hallmarks of frustration that can plague a typical game – you're stuck on two lands while an Insectile Aberration is crashing into you, for example.

The variant rules are simple.

1. Each player begins with the following ten cards in a pile off to the side:

Each turn, a player can select one of these lands and put it into play.

2. Players start the game with six cards and have a maximum hand size of nine cards.

3. Since both players are technically playing off the top of the same, giant deck, cards that are shuffled in or put on the bottom of the library are exiled instead for expediency.
And that's it! The rest of the game is played as normal.

How is The Danger Room deck designed? What makes it different from other formats?

Players use a big, shared deck that looks sort of like a Cube deck. It contains hundreds of cards and the player isn't sure what they'll draw that turn. It contains no lands. The Danger Room deck is crafted to be at a certain power level, which is what makes the game really interesting. The power level is above an uncommons-only Cube, but far below a regular Cube. It's sort of like a really, really good draft deck. There are plenty of rares in the deck, which is a deckbuilding aspect that gives it a huge edge over peasant and pauper Cubes; you can play the good sweepers. Cards like Wrath of God and Pernicious Deed act as useful and necessary safety valves on the board. People who have played Pauper Cube can sympathize with the unfortunate board gummed up with lots of weenies and no way to break out. The Danger Room uses all-star cards from Limited, workhorse uncommons and unloved rares from Magic past. You'll never draw a card in the format and wonder why it's so crummy, why something more powerful wasn't included.

The most incredible part of the deckbuilding aspect is that there is absolutely nothing that alters the way you play lands and cast spells on sequence. There is not a single Signet nor Stone Rain. Nothing either player does can accelerate them or slow their opponent's mana production. This is a major appeal for me because it means that you can cast the things that you draw, make plans, and not have to outrace the opponent's mana production. In a format with no other acceleration, a card as simple as Avacyn's Pilgrim can be highly distorting to gameplay. I get that Signets are a big part of the Cube experience, but I want to play awesome spells and not draw mana fixers. Danger Room decks draw business every single turn and the power each player wields can change dramatically in a draw step.

To advance the goal of long, interesting games, The Danger Room is built with a defensive mind. If there are cards that are a little too powerful, it's better that they are defensive and not offensive. For example, Ivory Tower and Fog Bank are excellent defensive cards, and they're both in the deck. However, Overrun effects can potentially end a game, off the top, with a single card; there are far fewer of them. I'd rather have a Grizzled Leotau than Geist of Saint Traft come up. Of course, there are plenty of cards that can and do win stalls and games. Evasion of all forms, be it landwalk, shadow or flying, see enough play to make things lively. It's pretty cool that Bog Wraith is a playable card, even when the power level of the rest of the box is markedly higher.

One common gripe about Commander and Cube is that there is too much tutoring and searching; decks end up being made to run the fewest number of “real” cards, oriented to getting that Mirari's Wake or Recurring Nightmare in play and grinding it. This is fun to an extent, but we found that drawing high-quality but random spells each turn makes the game much more engaging. Thus, there is nothing in the deck that tutors. Since you're using a shared deck, the combos that come up are delightful surprises and not planned-in machines. That Cavern Harpy you drew is going to go great with Sea Gate Oracle, for example. The Nantuko Disciple will give Intrepid Hero many more targets. These sort of things feel more like the old-school Inquest “killer combos” and not actual lethal combinations, and they enrich the game without dominating it.

Want to see what this looks like in action? Here are some sample opening hands:

 


 

Do you get a sense of the power level from this? I love this sample hand; it's got really good spells from every Magic age. I love that cards like Wall of Heat can see play in this format, where they are simply not good enough for other game variants. Having access to interesting rares like Orzhov Pontiff and Masked Admirers also boosts the fun and intricacy of The Danger Room. This hand has layered value in it; imagine, for example, putting that Quicksilver Dagger on the Wall of Heat and having a reliable blocker and draw engine.

 


 

This hand is gold to a player who wants a long-form game with lots of interaction. Look how it can set up a Darkheart Sliver/Disturbed Burial combination; how the Kannushi (did you have to read it, too?) is a versatile early blocker; and think of the extended value you get from casting the Page on the fourth turn!

 


 

Sweepers, efficient cards from Magic past, and fun cards like Belfry Spirit that often don't see play, even though they're objectively good cards. If you look at these hands and want to start slinging these spells, then The Danger Room is definitely made for you.

 

Deck Construction Goals

If you are assembling The Danger Room, these are the general rules to follow in construction.

1. It should be at least 300 cards, and preferrably 500 or more.

2. No searching, tutoring or Scrying. These slow down games and make them unfun when you're playing off the top.

3. Nothing should affect lands; Grixis Charm can bounce a land, so it's out.

4. Play as many sweepers as you can. This includes cards like Chain Reaction, Forced March, Kirtar's Wrath and more. However, be aware of power level; Decree of Pain is much too good to run.

5. Play a bit of draw spells, but make them big and make them count. Nothing weaker than Concentrate should show up. People cast draw spells less than you'd think.

6. Enough equipment makes every monster a star. Again, bear in mind the power level you're working with. Sword of X and Y is too good, but Vulshok Morningstar is just fine.

7. Pack enough removal in the deck. I try to make sure there are about 10% burn and kill spells and 5% artifact and enchantment hate.

8. It can be a challenge to find good fatties that aren't simply too good. We designed our Danger Rooms so that cards like Shivan Dragon and Air Elemental are at the curve and good enough to play. These nostalgic cards are fun and it should be an event to draw and play them. However, a card like Dragonsoul Knight or Wurmcoil Engine will dominate a game on its own and should be avoided.

9. You will naturally have more of certain colors than other colors. This is fine; some colors are just better. You don't have to have an exact mix of colors and gold cards, the way one typically does in Cube. Simply run what's good - it's liberating.

10. Prioritize fun. Fun for me is older cards from the classic era. This nostalgia plays out with cards like Banshee, Storm Seeker, Lurker, Wall of Bone, Royal Assassin, Cursed Rack, Giant Spider (Beta is only $1), Abu Ja'far and Nettling Imp. Beyond just being fun, these cards also make a good touchstone for power. Is the monster you're adding drastically better than Sengir Vampire? If it is, you might not want it in the stack. I run Black Vise for the throwback appeal, even though it's brutally good, and I run Icy Manipulator, though it can tap a land, because their nostalgia value is just so good.

What cards did not make the cut? Which ones were too good?

Since it is a new format, it took awhile to figure out what was a dead card, what was fun to play with, and what was simply unbeatable. Here are some illustrative examples of each category. These cards were just not good enough: Maul Splicer (too small for the mana), Reparations (didn't trigger often enough), Cautery Sliver (not fun enough), Repel Intruders (too much mana to hold up for a weak effect). On the other hand, these were just too good: Jiwari, the Earth Aflame (casting it with any board advantage meant you were unbeatable), Deathbringer Thoctar (too strong in a longer game), Skullclamp (card drawing too frequently), Loxodon Warhammer (too swingy for my taste, though I run Behemoth Sledge).

Cards that are 100% super fun all the time:

After each game, it's worth asking yourself and your opponent what cards they thought were too good and if they had any stinkers in their hands that they didn't want to see.

Assembling your own Danger Room is cheap and easy

The great thing about putting this deck together is that you already own many of the cards that are good in the format. Most of the cards you'll have to hunt down or buy are cheap. Giltspire Avenger and Mask of Riddles will not break your bank. I had about 300 of the cards in my deck already and ordered another 200. I've sunk about $60 into the cards and another $35 for 500 sleeves. This is less than the cost of a lot of opening hands in Cube, and it gets you a whole box of cards to play with. It really, really pays to shop around for the best price on the cards. Most stores charge 10 cents for bulk commons, but I found that AdventuresON, for example, had most of these cards at 2 and 3 cents. At that price, I'd rather pay someone two cents to look for the card for me, even if I have one in my collection! You can find other discount retailers by going to TCGPlayer and searching for junk commons; if they list at 3 cents, that store is worth further investigation. Most of the rares are cheap; Coffin Queen, Exalted Angel, Spellskite, Shadowmage Infiltrator and Dark Suspicions are easy to find and economical to purchase. Buy English-language cards so that newbies can actually read and understand your cards. I'll note that you shouldn't go nuts with buying foil commons until you've got a good grasp of what's playable. I seem to cut the foils more than the nonfoils after awhile and I've got an unfortunate pile of cards like Cloistered Youth sitting around. Since they're foils, I was less eager to cut actual bad cards. I counsel that you avoid this pitfall.

On a practical note, this makes your deck much less of a theft target. I am fine lending it out to people and letting strangers sit down and play with a stack, where this can be risky to do with a regular Cube. If you don't foil everything out, you further diminish the chances of having a fun deck get swiped.

You can use the Invasion lands or you can use the Coldsnap duals, though I find little reason to run "snow matters" cards outside of Skred. I also suggest getting multiple copies of these lands, so that people can jump in and play with the same stack.

My Current List

It's a beast to type this whole thing up, but THIS is my current list. I'll be tracking changes on it so you can return to view it at any time and see the newest iteration of it. The lists are easily pasted into any deck-builder tool on an online store.  Expect discussion on what cards individually are good and bad in the future. If you'll be at GenCon, track me down and we'll play some games!

 

-Doug Linn

Insider: New Product Hype

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So much for the “dead zone”. Between rampant speculation on Innistrad block cards, anticipation of Return to Ravnica’s financial impact on Standard and Modern, and the recently spoiled Commander’s Arsenal cards, there are certainly enough discussions to keep your head spinning.

I’ve become overwhelmed just trying to keep up with all the forums, tweets, and articles referencing the above products. So rather than trying to digest it all, I’m going to apply historical trends and internalize the facts as we currently know them in order to predict financial changes.

Don’t get me wrong – I intend to keep up with some of the rampant buzz. To tune out the Hive Mind’s voice could be financial suicide. What’s ideal is of course a balance of the two.

Innistrad Block Cards

It’s no mystery that once Standard rotates, the remaining block often increases in value. As people turn their focus to fresh, new cards the previous block’s cards fall out of favor… temporarily. It doesn’t take long before a new Standard metagame develops and a handful of different cards rapidly become format staples.

Of course it’s not so easy to identify which cards will become critical in the new Standard – especially this far advance when we know so little about the upcoming set. Everyone expects Shock Lands to be reprinted, and we all know that each of the guilds will return (albeit in a different distribution from last time). But, in general, there is a huge gap in information within which to speculate.

Let’s take a look at some of the financially relevant cards currently in Standard.

Miracles

Miracle cards have demonstrated their power in block constructed, even winning a Pro Tour. At their discounted mana costs, these cards are undeniably powerful. But are they powerful enough to survive a metagame shift?

I believe they will not only survive the shift, but they will actually become more powerful. With a much smaller card pool to select from (no board sweepers, no solid counter-magic, etc.), these miracles will be put to the test. Depending on where the format goes, we may see some solid price increases on some cards.

Consider Temporal Mastery, for example (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com):

The trend looks pretty depressing, doesn’t it? But in a format rampant with aggressive strategies, control-based decks really haven’t had their chance to shine. And this pseudo-Time Walk is a prime example of a card that should see increased play as the format rotates. Especially since it’s recently hopped onto many speculators’ radar courtesy of Reid Duke’s SCG Open victory: http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=48345.

Another miracle card which may see a price shift come rotation is Terminus. It’s no secret that I’m speculating on this card. For those who don’t follow me on Twitter:

It’s also interesting to see Star City Games’ aggressive approach to Terminus. While it is possible (though highly unlikely) SCG is unaware of the card’s dropping price, I’ve wagered that they too are speculating on this card. After all, with Day of Judgment leaving the format what other board sweepers are useful? Terminus may also strengthen if some of the Return to Ravnica Guilds depend on graveyard synergies (I’m looking at you, Golgari) or token strategies.

Edit: Since Sunday, August 12th, Star City Games has dropped their buy and sell price on Terminus to $2 and $6, respectively. That being said, there were four copies in the SCG Kansas City winning Legacy decklist. This card may not have a home in Standard, but it is certainly powerful enough to find one.

I’ve saved the miracle with the most buzz for last: Bonfire of the Damned (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com):

This card has been on a steady rise since mid June. But can this Standard all-star continue its run in a new metagame? I’ve mentioned in the forums how red sorceries are rarely the most valuable card in Standard. And with so many unknowns on the horizon, it feels like there is more downside potential than upside potential. The card sells on eBay for $35 already, and I have a tough time seeing auctions that pass $40, unless the card really warps the format.

Because I’m risk averse, I already sold my few copies for a marginal profit with intent of buying back in should the price drop. If you have an appetite for risk, feel free to hold onto your copies. But as a cautious speculator who has been burned from Standard rotation in the past, I’m going to buy into underappreciated cards like Temporal Mastery and Terminus instead.

Return to Ravnica

As most of you know, there have been two cards confirmed for Return to Ravnica:

The lack of confirmed information is stopping no one from speculating on what is to come. We can safely infer a few key facts solely based on the spoiled cards, and so I’d rather base my decisions on these facts rather than pure speculation.

First, we see that Wizards is not afraid of reprinting previous Ravnica block cards in Return to Ravnica. My guess is that the reprints won’t stop with Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind. This means no card in Ravnica block is sacred.

Of course, the most financially devastating reprint would be Dark Confidant. But beside the Shock Lands, there are a handful of reprints that could impact card values negatively such as Doubling Season, Life from the Loam and even Spell Snare. Net, I wouldn’t recommend acquiring any of these cards while they are so vulnerable to reprinting.

I have already made reference to the second fact we can garner from the two spoiled Return to Ravnica cards confirmed so far: the graveyard may still matter.

There is already a potential synergy between Innistrad and Golgari. Gravecrawler and Geralfs Messenger are already seeing Standard play, and if Golgari gives you reason to kill your own creatures, these guys could see a resurgence.

And don’t forget my number two speculation for rotation: Innistrad Duals. There just so happens to be a [card Sulfur Falls]U/R[/card] one and a [card Woodland Cemetery]G/B[/card] one.

The third and final deduction I’ve made from the confirmed Duel Deck Izzet vs. Golgari is that Return to Ravnica will probably be awesome.

Is this relevant? Well, if this block is as powerful in eternal formats as the original Ravnica block, then perhaps it’d be a wise investment to hold onto a sealed booster box of these next three sets. They are pre-selling at $90-$100 now, and I don’t expect their prices to drop much. Just look at prices of the original Ravnica block booster boxes:

Investing in these would have yielded a fine return (to Ravnica -- sorry I had to).

Commander’s Arsenal

The next Commander product has just been announced, and it sure has gotten players’ attention. Wizards of the Coast is marketing the product with a super premium price tier by marking an MSRP of $74.99! What do you get for that investment?

Well, besides some neat counters and a sweet life keeping device, we know we’ll also be getting 18 foil cards including Sylvan Library. That’s pretty sweet, but it’s not worth $75. So is this deck a buy? A Twitter poll reveals people’s hesitancy due to the steep price:

Clearly we will need more information before the overwhelming majority is convinced this product is worthwhile. The first round of Commander Decks have been out for a while now, and even the most popular one, Counterpunch, can be had for under $60 on eBay. Political Puppets, on the other hand, still can be had for under $40, very close to MSRP. Many Wizards of the Coast sealed products increase in value a few years after release, but it’s not a guaranteed trend. It truly depends on the value of the cards within, and that is why I am in the “wait” group from the poll above.

Some key finance players are avidly supporting a preorder of this product, but I see little downside in waiting. Especially since I don’t think this product is even available for preorder yet anyways.

Have Your Trigger Finger Ready

I’ve theorized what changes may be coming, but soon enough we will have new information daily. Spoiler season always brings with it some wild speculation opportunities, driving rapid price swings on specific cards. The best advice I can give you is to have some cash ready for buying and flex your index finger. Pay close attention to Twitter and the QS forum as players point out the next hot speculation target.

Once a target is spotted, the window to pull the trigger on buying the card closes rapidly. Most people buy out TCG Player and eBay first. Less searched sites such as Cardshark and even Amazon are not bought out as quickly. While everyone buys out eBay, I’d suggest going to these sites first for opportunities to purchase the hottest card on the cheap.

Just don’t tell anybody else there is stock at these sites until after you’ve bought the copies you want!

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Commander Staples: Top Five Cards by Color

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Here are a few cards for your consideration:

You probably recognize these as some of the most powerful cards in Magic. The cream of the crop, the iconic staples that define formats and warp metagames. Few would argue that these cards set the bar for sheer power.

But in Commander this is not the case. Commander manipulates the rules of Magic in such a way that card quality must be assessed completely differently than in any other format. There are many key factors that affect the quality of a card in Commander. The multiplayer nature, starting life total of 40, and bizarre deck requirements are just a few.

Normally, in Constructed formats, players take a card's mana cost into consideration, but for Commander this is less of an issue.

This is because Commander is generally slow. Larger numbers of players lead to longer games, players start with 40 life, and decks are less consistent. Players can usually bank on hitting their eighth land drop to cast that juicy hydra demon lord that draws eight cards and destroys eight creatures (this card may or may not be my invention). This means players can rely on their expensive spells, which results in the epic games of Magic Commander is known for.

Let's look at blue as an example. Normally when compiling a top five list for best blue cards we might include Snapcaster Mage, Brainstorm, Force of Will, Counterspell and Stifle. (I don't really play other formats so this is probably wrong, but you get the idea.) Cards like this are actually quite poor in Commander. Sure they have their uses, but I wouldn't put them anywhere near the top five.

Time Stretch, on the other hand, ranks above all of these. In most formats ten mana is pretty unreasonable, but not in Commander. While ten is steep, most Commander games will go long enough for a spell like this to be hardcast. The possibility of casting cards like this (fairly) is what makes Commander such an interesting, dynamic and unique format.

The other colors more or less follow suit. The best cards outside of Commander usually don't measure up in the world of 99 cards.

The Best Commander Cards

Let's take a look at what I consider to be the top five Commander cards for each color and why.

Now, there are two things to be aware of when I made my decisions. First, I chose cards that are more or less good in a vacuum. For example, Palinchron is extremely powerful but relies heavily on [card mana reflection]other cards[/card] to be good. I tried to keep cards like that off the list. Second, I avoided stupid cards like Armageddon because I don't play with or against such cards.

There are a few questions I kept in mind when judging power level. Do I usually win the game when I cast this card? Does it actively help me cast cards that win the game? Does it efficiently stop my opponents from winning the game? Should every Commander deck run this card if it's on-color? These are all important things to consider when assessing card quality for Commander (and for that matter every other format).

Without further ado:

White

I command you to destroy all your permanents.
  • 5. Stoneforge Mystic. This card is fantastic. In most cases it gets a Sword of Fire and Ice or [card Sword of Light and Shadow]Light and Shadow[/card], which are quite good in Commander, but it also has the option to get other [card Argentum Armor]powerful equipment[/card] to fulfill roles you may need.
  • 4. Return to Dust. This card is just amazing. Just show me one Commander deck with out artifacts or enchantments in it. Not only can this card get two of them, but it exiles which is actually much more critical in Commander than in other formats.
  • 3. Wrath of God. Creature wrath effects are very powerful. When you kill not one, but two of your opponents' entire board of creatures, it's that much better. This creates a lot of pseudo card advantage which is very beneficial.
  • 2. Stonehewer Giant. This is another fantastic equipment fetcher. He pretty much does what Stoneforge Mystic does, but more than once and he equips it for you.
  • 1. Austere Command. This card is extremely versatile, which is clutch in Commander. It will always take care of two threatening cards, if not more, and it is easy to set yourself up to be far ahead after casting it. Every white deck should use this.

Blue

Hey, does your deck run Avacyn? OK, I'll bribery you.
  • 5. Time Stretch. TWO extra turns?! That's insane! The fact that this costs ten mana does keep it at number five though.
  • 4. Rhystic Study. This card draws a surprising amount of cards. As soon as one person declines to pay the extra one, everyone else stops paying as well. It's a, "Well, if you're not paying, then I'm not," kind of situation.
  • 3. Desertion. In most situations paying five mana to steal an opponent's three-drop creature is underwhelming, but when it steals a nine-mana legendary angel, it suddenly gets a lot better.
  • 2. Time Spiral. Refilling an empty hand is good in any format, and the fact that you see it coming makes it way easier to take advantage of. Oh, and did I mention its free? In fact, with the use of bounce lands (and [card caged sun]other tricks[/card]), it actually generates mana!
  • 1. Bribery. This card is a lot like Desertion, except you don't have to wait for your opponent to cast anything and it always gets the best creature they have available. In Commander that usually means something nuts. Turn five Griselbrand! Wait, he's banned. Dang. We'll just have to settle for his nemesis [card Avacyn, Angel of Hope]Avacyn[/card].

Black

The demon advises you win the game.
  • 5. Rune-Scarred Demon. Not only does this guy get any card from your deck, he also lays the smack down as a 6/6 flyer.
  • 4. Phyrexian Arena. I've found this card to be extremely powerful. Remember how Commander games last forever? Well, drawing a card every turn for forever is...a bunch of cards, at least 50, and the life loss is mostly irrelevant.
  • 3. Decree of Pain. Creature sweeper and card drawer in one. What else can I say? It even becomes more powerful with more people in the game.
  • 2. Necropotence. This card breaks the "good in other formats, bad in Commander" rule. It is busted in all formats and becomes even more busted when you start with 40 life. Enough said.
  • 1. Demonic Tutor. I'd probably put this in the top five Commander cards among any color. It's that good. Tutors are even more powerful in Commander due to deck size and inconsistency. This gets any card on this list, so it has to be good.

Red

I'll...attack.
  • 5. Shattering Spree. This card is efficiently costed and destroys every artifact you need it to to cripple your opponents. Any deck that isn't green is going to have some artifact mana, and being able to kill all of them, but not your own, is pretty sweet.
  • 4. Starstorm. A variable creature sweeper that cycles? Sounds good to me. It's also an instant, which is great. This card is good during all points of a Commander game.
  • 3. Godo, Bandit Warlord. See Stoneforge Mystic and Stonehewer Giant. What can be bad about free equipment? Also, swords are pretty sweet when they hit twice. Side note, a Spanish Godo, Bandit Warlord has the coolest name of a card ever. Look it up.
  • 2. Wheel of Fortune. This card gets you out of a tough situation, to wit: running out of cards. This is one thing you don't want to happen in Commander. Also, red is lacking in card advantage and this gem keeps those dragons flowin'.
  • 1. Insurrection. I'm pretty sure I've won the game every time I've cast this card. What makes it so powerful? There are usually at least three players' worth of creatures to steal, said creatures are simultaneously large and in charge, and voila you control all of them.

Green

The time is prime for more land.
  • 5. Azusa, Lost but Seeking. This chick is bonkers. Playing three lands per turn is the bee's knees, and with splendid cards like Tower of Fortunes keeping your hand full, its pretty easy to take advantage of her every turn.
  • 4. Mana Reflection. Double Mana. Not just an extra mana, and not just for lands, but double mana for everything. That is all.
  • 3. Skyshroud Claim. On the surface this card feels underwhelming compared to the other cards on this list, but trust me, every green Commander deck everywhere should run this card. It's just that efficient. It accelerates and fixes your mana (think Tropical Island, Bayou, Taiga and Savannah), and as a plus puts lands onto the battlefield untapped.
  • 2. Tooth and Nail. This card is just sweet. Two creatures from your deck, right into play, bam. Hint: I often get the green card ranked at number one.
  • 1. Primeval Titan. This card does exactly what is best in Commander, ramping tons of mana. And it fetches any lands you could fancy. Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and Cabal Coffers? Why not. He's also a beefcake that can pummel your opponents to death while he generates thousands of mana.

Wrapping Up

And there you have it, Andy Martin's top five Commander cards for each color.

Compiling this list was a lot more difficult that I thought. Commander is such a diverse format where anything is possible and it's very difficult to narrow such a large chunk of quality cards down to 'best five'.

I'm sure some of you agree with some of my choices, and I'm sure even more of you disagree. The above list is based on my years of Commander experience and Magic knowledge, but I would love to hear what you all think. What are your top fives for each color? Let me know in the comments!

Andy Martin
arm7845@gmail.com

Jason’s Archives: Fact or Fictional Characters, What’s the Matter with Kansas & Nights in Columbus

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Greetings, Speculators!

No time to editorialize this week as I'm busy getting ready for Gen Con. Also known as geek Christmas (nobody calls it that -- Editor) Gen Con is a plague that descends on Indianapolis, Indiana every year in August. Reminiscent of locusts, the swarm of cosplayers and furries is so thick over the long weekend it can blot out the sun, and most residents of the city stay indoors until Monday.

Its aftermath is nothing short of devastation; large swaths of the city are stripped bare, from the shelves of comic book and costume stores to the city's entire supply of Pocky, erased from existence. The downtown Steak and Shake, voted the best place in Indianapolis to get hepatitis, does 90% of its annual business and closes for the next month to remove the smell of clove cigarettes from the curtains.

Not to be trifled with, Gen Con is serious business and I'm putting in enough prep work to ensure I bring everything I want to get rid of.

If you want to know how to get ready for this momentous weekend, this guy has you covered.

I'm Not Going to Gen Con, You Clown. What You Got for Me?

Wow, I was getting to it. You're kind of a jerk sometimes, imaginary person I use as a rhetorical device to establish flow in my article.

Make My Favorite People into Cards!

Done! I found quite a bit of that.

Flavor wise, we couldn't come up with an ability that simulated a nude shower fight.

Redditor BearSole gets us started with his creation of Ender Wiggin, the savior of humanity and scourge of kids with names like "Bonzo". If you haven't read the Ender's Game series, shut up, yes you have. If you actually haven't, you really should because they are quite good.



 

This jives nicely with my tendency to refer to Emrakul as "the heavy."

Death Monkee brings us his update to Royal Assassin. Personally, I think Evil Twin better embodies the TF2 assassin's skill set, but this is strong work and I loled.



 

You don't have to be a loony to play this card, but it can't hurt.

Mightyskunk has graced our day with his rendition of Monty Python's tenacious Black Knight. Completely insusceptible to flesh wounds and scratches, this guy can take a real beating and keep on defending. Not the blackest of abilities, this card still has a lot of casual appeal, and should incite a lot of "python" quoting.



 

Do not cast this card from your hand. He who casts from his hand has forgotten the face of his father.

RainInHeaven wraps up our hit parade with this lovely rendition of the Waste's most dangerous eight-fingered badass. I try to structure my articles like the Dark Tower series; an exciting build to an inevitably disappointing ending.

Going for Gold: Not Just a Ravnica Draft Strategy Anymore

Ever wish they had Magic events in the Olympics? I haven't either. Anyway, enjoy this thing:

It could happen. They used to give out Olympic Gold Medals for poetry.

IrrelephantInTheRoom is all about Magic in the Olympics. I'll compete if they have medals for fastest pack to power.

Modern Goes to Kansas, Gets a House Dropped on its Head

As Magic is the second most enjoyable activity in Kansas (the most enjoyable being packing a bag and going somewhere else) there was an SCG Open event in Kansas City over the weekend. Let's take a look.

Top 32 Standard Lists

Three Delvers in the top 8, which seems OK to me. The winning list, piloted by Mike Prokop, is a bit of a throwback to the Delver lists of six months ago, augmenting the instants and sorceries that flip [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] with a Runechanter's Pike or two.

Pike has gotten better recently as a strong synergy piece with another card that's seeing more play in several formats -- Talrand, Sky Summoner. When I said on the podcast that I thought Talrand bore looking at in Legacy, I wasn't just being cute. I was close but not quite spot on. Talrand is currently seeing some experimental inclusion in Vintage decks such as Gushbond. Nothing beats a free 2/2 plus two cards. Well, maybe some kerosene and a lit cigar. Not much else though.

Gut Shot, Gitaxian Probe, Dismember; the old favorites are all here. This feels very much like a throwback deck, but a throwback to a time when Delver was on top and didn't even have the absurdity of [card Talrand, Sky Summoner]Talrand[/card] to abuse the high instant/sorcery count. Now Runechanter's Pike feels like cheating with both Talrand and Moorland Haunt spitting out fliers to Pike up.

All in all it feels like the way the deck should head in the future, at least until the Phyrexian mana cards are gone. As stale as it is for Delver to win, this list seems at least a bit innovative. Congrats, Mike.

Bugs and Pump Spells

Second place is.... Mono Green Infect? What in the actual crap?

Not as cutesy as it appears at first glance, this deck goes all-in on one dude with the protection suite to ensure he gets the job done. Abusing the absurd interaction between Apostle's Blessing/Ranger's Guile and Wild Defiance, this deck is explosive and dangerous. A nuts draw from this pile is unbeatable without the right removal from the opponent, and the deck can even eke out some amount of post-wrath inevitability. Day of Judgment is fine and all, but if your opponent has Forest, two Cathedral of War and Inkmoth Nexus left over, you're dead anyway.

Green Sun's Zenith takes a bit of the sting out of running so few creatures and the sheer number of counter/protection spells make more than one creature unnecessary. Infect has always been a potent strategy and it's good to see it pay dividends. This marks the second SCG event in a row where a fun, innovative deck came along and, you know, got inevitably curb-stomped by Delver in the Finals. Still, second place seems really good to me.

Not everyone would agree.

The Top 8 was pretty standard. One standout was a deck I'm fond of -- Zombie Pod. How Matthew Dennis managed to make Top 8 with a whopping zero copies of Gloom Surgeon, I'll never understand. Have you read that card? Lighter on the zombies and heavier on the pod, Dennis instead included a Massacre Wurm and a Thragtusk (TUSK!) as answers for a long game.

How silly is Disciple of Bolas? He's as good as you thought. Everyone who played Limited or Duel of the Planeswalkers knew this guy was a beast, but since no pros had jammed him yet, it took a month for him to reach Top 8. Don't be a follower. [card Flock of Rabid Sheep]Sheep[/card] are followers, and they get sacced to Trading Post. Is that what you want? To get sacced to a Trading Post? Be an Elvish Pioneer and play good cards before it's cool.

Top 16 Legacy Decks

Four copies of Stoneblade variants in the Top 8? Is this a regional thing? I was ready to call this deck as dead as Dillinger, but Kansas City saw garden-variety Stoneblade lists dominate.

In the coveted "Jason's favorite deck of the event, naturally in second place" slot is... LANDS! You may remember Lands winning in Detroit. This deck has real gas and as boring as it is to play sometimes, other times you get to ruin someone's day. Nothing beats the rosy cheeks and bulging forehead veins of the 296th RUG Delver player who loses to you round one and complains about your joke deck only to see you wave a few hours later from Top 8.

Some say Lands is a real deck capable of winning events. Others say it's the 75 card version of the a fraternity prank. Can't it be both?

Sorry Maverick, wanna maybe reread Cursed Totem?

Congrats to Kobie Spaeth for winning and to Alex Olson for ruining eight guys' days.

I Swear There's Something in Columbus Every Weekend

This weeekend it was a SCG Open Series event. See if you can guess the deck that won the event. Don't peek, just say your answer out loud then scroll down.

 

 

Got your answer?

 

 

 

No peeking...

 

 

No, it wasn't U/W Delver, you cynical planeswalker, you. If you were any more [card Jade Mage]jaded[/card], you'd put saprolings into play.

Could this possibly be correct? No Delver in the Top 8? Hot damn! Let's see what we got here!

Scotty Doolittle made use of his ability to talk to animals and piloted Naya Pod to a first place finish. It looks like a pretty stock list so let's move on. Congrats, Scotty!

Defiant Infect makes another strong showing here, piloted by David Rohlfing. This deck is a contender, and when more than ten people at an event play it, expect to see it compose more than one slot in future Top 16s.

Control's Triumphant Return?

Chandra, the Firebrand sure looks like fun if you're playing Bonfire of the Damned late in the game. Jamming an impressive three copies of Frost Titan, a Grixis Control deck piloted by Michael Kenney took second.

This isn't the least hostile format toward control, but this deck is teeming with removal and getting your counterspells shut off by Cavern of Souls isn't as back-breaking when you can set up a 10-point Devil's Play and double it. [card Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker]Nicol Bolas[/card] is tough for most of the format to deal with if he resolves and he looks like the deck's main win condition, apart from beating faces with titans or sphinx. Tight play is a necessity with a deck like this, so second place is quite impressive. Nicely done, Michael.

Another Dungrove Green deck stands out in an otherwise pretty stock Top 8. All in all, eight players managing to finish better than every Delver deck in the room warms the cockles of my heart.

Get Off My Lawn!

All in all it was kind of a surprising weekend. I sold five playsets of Vexing Devil overnight on eBay, so more on that when I get back from Gen Con and figure out what the heck is running Vexing Devil. Whatever it is, I hope it involves active Blood Artists.

I am done with you now (see title above). Leave me to my Gen Con preparations and leave me some love in the comments. Or some hate. A cookie recipe, anything.

If you see me at Gen Con, ask me for one of the sweet 1/1 Spirit tokens we made for Brainstorm Brewery. There's a prize in it for anyone who uses one of our tokens in a match on camera.

Until next week, don't do anything I wouldn't do. And if you do, name it Gideon. I think that would be awesome.

Jason Alt
@JasonEAlt on Twitter

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