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Insider: Run, Baby, Run!

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“It’s been a great run, buddy. Seriously, I know you still have the stuff of a champion, but we just can’t renew your contract unless you take a pay cut.”

“But, Coach!?!”

“... No buts, Tiago. That’s just the business we’re in.”

Time is ticking down on the release of Magic 2013, and new changes to Standard are imminent. The time to act is now. Snapcaster Mage is going to be falling steeply in the very near future. What does ‘steeply’ mean?

Paper Chart

(from blacklotusproject.com)

MTGO Chart

(from mtggoldfish.com I chopped off the hyper-inflated portion that happens during Pre-Release)

Snapcaster in Paper is already on the decline. At first, I attributed this to a banning scare. I heard from various sources both in person and across the Twitterverse, that people “in the know” were dumping their Snapcaster Mages. I was insistent there would not be a banning, and there wasn’t. PHEW. I expected buylist prices to rebound. They haven’t. Star City Games has Snapcaster Mage at $19.99 sale list, with 8 playsets in stock as of this writing, and their buy price is at $8. ChannelFireball.com still sells it at the same price, but buys at $10. Clearly we have a large spread in Buy/Sell here, no matter how you see it. Logically, this would tell me that they really don’t want any more stock or they are expecting a big decline and they don’t want to be stuck. So, if he’s not banned, and he’s a monster in Standard, why do we fear his decline?

First, of all, many of us here at QS, and many others elsewhere, predicted a high price for Snapcaster Mage early on, but most of us expected him to fall to the $15 retail price within a few months of release. We’re now 9 months in, and it’s clearly started to fall. Some of this comes from the reasons we expected last Fall. Packs are open. Drafts are done. We’ve reached the tipping point where this non-Mythic Rare has flooded enough supply out there to meet the demand of not only Standard players but Legacy, EDH and Modern as well.

But there’s more. WotC admitted that Snapcaster Mage is too powerful for Standard. I knew that wouldn’t mean a brand-damaging banning, but rather metagame shifts and new printings. Well, we’ve got ‘em. Ground Seal is a real card. Tormod's Crypt is a real card. While other hate already exists for Tiago, we’ve added more fuel to the fire, while also ensuring that enough survives rotation after Nihil Spellbomb and Surgical Extraction rotate from Standard.

Wizards is pushing the format hard away from blue dominated aggro decks, and encouraging the aggro decks to play the other colors, as seen in cards like Rancor. Snapcaster’s new home will be in U/B and U/W control decks, flashing back things like Duress, Tragic Slip and possibly Timely Reinforcements until it rotates. But the days of Snapping back an [card]Unsummon[card] are soon to be over.

We’ve also seen a complete nerfing of the strategies that have kept Snapcaster Mage in the limelight. The Core Set is not even providing a new cantrip at U, but rather Index (I mean, can a brother get an Opt even?). Not only was Mana Leak not reprinted (no surprise there), we don’t even get a Cancel (while it rarely sees play, we will still have Dissipate)!

While Rewind is a real card, casting it via Snapcaster Mage is no easy feat. Narrow hard counters like Negate and Essence Scatter are fine, but not enough to keep an aggro-control deck like Delver afloat post-rotation. Snapcaster Mage will certainly still see play, don’t get me wrong. But on a totally different scale that what we’re used to. I actually wrote a blog post on my personal blog about how Mana Leak is really the monster that made aggro-control so powerful in blue.

The people who were “In the know” weren’t betting on a banning (if they were, they were just lucky) they were betting on massive scale nerfing. While I’m not surprised to see R&D drop a Nerf-hammer rather than a ban-hammer, I’m bummed I didn’t pick up on this a dollar ago, rather than holding out hoping they’d bounce back after the non-ban. They still hit an easy $16 on Ebay and even as high as $19 at times, but the quantity selling at those prices are dwindling. If you can find any outlet to get rid of these at reasonable prices, I would do so. Otherwise, to EBay with them promptly. Since they still sit at hefty StarCityGames and ChannelFireball retail pricing, I’d be using that pricing scale to guide trades as you try to dump these at your big pre-releases around the corner.

Notice the charts of both the Paper and MTGO pricing. MTGO pricing has been fairly stagnant, while Paper pricing has begun the decline. Typically we see the MTGO market move a bit quicker, but there’s another animal at work here. The online price hit its equilibrium much faster as draft packs flood the market much faster in comparison to the demand for constructed, and Legacy playability is not a huge factor on modern-era Rares on MTGO. Typically we see Standard playable rares sit around 60-70% of their paper price on MTGO, so that being said, I think by Fall’s rotation, we’ll see Snapcaster potentially as low as $10, and buy prices around $6. I’ll be looking to re-buy at that time and stash for the long haul.

I’m really interested to see how my Summer calls pan out once we see how formats shift after the new set, so I’ll be updating those as time passes. Any M13 cards we haven’t addressed yet you’d like to see some detailed analysis of next week? I plan to pick a few cards to create some detailed projections on their lifecycle.

Insider: Emotional Magic vs. Financial Magic

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This week my intent was to discuss the financial impact of some of the recently spoiled, influential M13 cards. As many have noticed, at the time of this writing, this set has thus far been significantly underwhelming in this regard.

[Editor's note: the full M13 set has been fully spoiled since Sigmund wrote this article, so expect his thoughts soon! In the meantime, be sure to visit the forums to stay on top of the community's conversations.]

There appear to be a great many spoiled cards geared towards casual and EDH players. Wizards of the Coast is certainly highlighting their dedication to the EDH player within M13 by reprinting favorites Akromas Memorial and Gilded Lotus. Additionally, there are by my count eleven cards which cost seven mana or more (I included Door to Nothingness, which does nothing without a 10 mana investment, and Diabolic Revelation, which is absolutely terrible if cast for six mana).

So where does this leave me? Frankly, it leaves me with either an inconsequential M13 article or a need to audible. Guess which one I chose…

Emotion and Magic

This week it gets personal. Through a series of anecdotes and reflections I want to describe some of my own emotions about this collectible card game as well as where strong emotion has helped and hurt me financially.

For those of you hoping for the next list of cards to acquire, I may mildly disappoint this time. I will try to sprinkle some recommendations throughout the article with my tried and true blacklotusproject.com charts. This may or not be satisfactory, but, in either case, I hope readers at least have an appreciation for my honesty and candidness.

The Beginning – Visions

I did not seek out the game of Magic – it found me. Around the time Visions was released my father remarried my Stepmother (although rumor has it the events are unrelated) and I suddenly had a Stepbrother one year older than me. His favorite hobby at the time was this collectible card game called “Magic”.

I asked my father for some cards for my birthday and before I knew it I was spell-slinging left and right. I even won my very first game thanks to a poor keep on my Stepbrother’s part. My first $5+ card was Desertion, simultaneously teaching me that these cards can have cash value and that blue was the strongest color.

Funny enough, thanks to EDH Desertion is once again a $5+ card and a fairly stable pick-up at that. The card is easy to grab in trades and even buy-lists to retailers well (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Looking back I realize this was a tumultuous time for me. My father had just remarried and moved far away, meaning I would see him much less frequently. My mother, whom I was living with, moved to a new town and so I had to start a brand new school and make all new friends. I was rather lost.

Magic: The Gathering really helped me stabilize. Through this hobby I not only connected with my Stepbrother, but I also met some of the best friends of my life in other Magic players at school. These memories are all positive and the emotional strength I garnered from Magic is a cornerstone of who I became in my new Middle School. These kinds of feelings towards the game are, in my opinion, 100% acceptable and even encouraged – it drives a type of respected passion for the hobby.

And although we were mostly ignorant about card prices, valuing Craw Wurm at one dollar and Lord of the Pit at infinite, we still loved the game for what it was to us at the time – a way to connect with friends in a familiar way.

Casual Years – Visions – Time Spiral (yes, Time Spiral)

My first nine years playing Magic were strictly casual. My friends and I would get together on the weekends and play countless multiplayer games attempting to outplay one another with our Craw Wurms, Dark Banishings and Counterspells. I remember I used to collect Wurms, and my prized possession was Warping Wurm, which I thrillingly opened in a Mirage pack.

My play during this time period was not consistent – sadly, I did not play Magic at all during Urza’s Saga block or Mercadian Masques block. Happily, I also missed Mirrodin block years later. My interest in the game fluctuated much like the value of a highly speculative card.

Because my enjoyment of this game was strictly on a casual level, I made some poor decisions from a financial perspective during this time. For one, my friends and I absolutely hated opening rare mana-fixing lands. They could never win us the game nor gain the respect of our circle, so we tended to trade them away. Sadly, I owned two Dual Lands which met this fate – a Tropical Island and a Plateau.

I also sold many of my constructed playable cards on eBay during my time in college. In 2004 I happily sold my three moderately played Force of Wills for $28 shipped on eBay. And that awful land Wasteland sold for over $10! Score!

Let’s see how those sales turned out for me according to blacklotusproject.com…

Yeah… sort of reminds you of Apple’s stock price, doesn’t it?

During this phase my mind was often removed from the game of Magic. As a result, I made poor financial decisions within the game. The moral – if you intend to stay in the game in any capacity, at least pay attention to financial trends on a macro level. There is no need to know the weekly fluctuations on card values, but if I had even considered reading some online articles (or InQuest Magazine, which still existed), I would have readily observed price trends. With a little more financial acuity, I could have saved myself from costly mistakes.

Time Spiral to Present – Finance and Competitive Magic

My first ever Friday Night Magic was a triple Time Spiral draft back in 2007. I was absolutely crushed week after week – both in the tournament and at the trade tables. I was beginning to notice trends in card pricing and the driving forces behind these trends, but I still allowed my casual side to drive trading decisions. I was thrilled to pick up my first Psionic Blast… right before it rotated out of Standard. I also opened a ton of Legions packs around this time with the hopes of opening Akroma, Angel of Wrath. Never happened.

The problem was I did not embrace MTG finance as a separate entity. I was too emotional about the game and my decisions were influenced by this. I couldn’t bring myself to trade away the cards I loved and, at the same time, I would overpay for cards I really wanted.

This is where emotion needs to be kept in check. In the extreme case, retailers hold almost no emotion for their cards. This is absolutely necessary – if they were emotional they would surely make poor pricing moves constantly.

Most of us aren’t retailers, so we are allowed some emotional attachment. It is okay to splurge once in a while, as long as the majority of our decisions are rational. Was I even playing the Psionic Blast when I acquired it, for example? Nope – I just loved the artwork and classic feel. Should I have just waited another couple months to acquire the card at $3 instead of $20? You bet.

Emotions – A Double Edged Sword?

In my last article I talked about how one should not hold emotional attachment to their cards because it’s bad for business. That was poorly stated on my part. The truth is most of us aren’t businesses and we play the game for some level of enjoyment. Subsidizing the hobby through savvy financial moves is great, but the big picture cannot be ignored.

Let me therefore propose a slightly alternate approach. Identify the cards in your collection to which you are emotionally attached. If you’ve always wanted a Gaeas Cradle, it’s perfectly fine to sink the $60 it would take to acquire the card right now. Need the latest Angel card to keep your collection complete? Pre-ordering the card from Star City Games may be costly, but it’s reliable and instantly gratifies.

The key is to keep these emotional attachments in check and reasonable. All other cards, and I would go as far as to say this should include every Standard card you own, should remain up for trade. I single out Standard cards specifically because the vast majority of them dip in price at some point, especially near rotation. Even Legacy staples like Noble Hierarch dip at rotation before picking up again.

If you are patient enough, you can acquire most cards at a cheaper price than what you unload them at. That is why I recommend the “nothing is sacred” approach. I would never trade away my Angel collection because of how much time and energy I put into acquiring all these cards. But if someone needed my set of Force of Wills badly enough and I wasn’t using them, I’d be perfectly fine trading them away at retail prices (for example) for a set of Gaeas Cradles.

Many people struggle with how expensive the game has become, especially for the emotionally involved player. As someone who used Magic: The Gathering as a source of stability and friendship during a difficult time, I have just as much emotional involvement in the game as anyone else. But, through some disciplined research and rational thinking, I have been able to apply basic financial principles to my buying, selling and trading to make the game more affordable than ever. This is possible without sacrificing all the joys of having a prized collection worth sharing.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Jason’s Archives: The Right to Face One’s Accuser, Defense of Home Brewing, A Week On Reddit & All the Decklists

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Greetings, Speculators!

I want to start out this week with an update on the Jon Elden story. Last week I talked about what was an apparently open-and-shut case of some savage cheating and what you can do to make sure you aren't similarly cheated.

The day the article went live, Corbin and I recorded Episode 15 of Brainstorm Brewery along with our friends Marcel and Ryan. The main topic of conversation was Jon Elden's conduct in Detroit and our genuine desire to have Elden defend himself on the cast. As quick as I was to condemn Elden, in the spirit of fairness I think it is essential to hear Elden's side of it.

In the days that followed the event in question, his brother constructed a wordpress blog site where Elden wrote a semblance of an explanation found here. His bother, David, wrote a treatise in his defense on the same site.

Facing One's Accuser

Whether or not you find their arguments compelling it is important to get their side of the story. I have made repeated attempts to contact Elden to allow him to explain himself in one of my articles and/or on the podcast, so far to no avail. I imagine he may be reluctant to do so and would rather put the incident behind him. But with an impending suspension or ban announcement likely, that may not be a possibility.

My intentions are not to further condemn Elden or gang up on him on the podcast; I merely find the entire incident fascinating and I am eager to learn as much as I can and no one knows more about what happened that day than he does.

I will continue to follow this story as it develops. It may be that there is more to the incident than was apparent initially and it's exciting to see what the future has in store for us.

Sam Black is Better at Magic Than You

I know this has happened to you. You are daydreaming and all of a sudden two previously unconnected ideas join in your head and a deck idea coalesces. Excited, you grab the nearest thing to write on and a decklist pours out of your brain onto the paper. The ideas come forth effortlessly and within a minute you have a rough idea of a maindeck sketched out.

"How could no one else have come up with this before?" you wonder as you jot down what you imagine is the next breakout deck. Visions of top-eights, deck tech interviews with BDM and future articles about your divine inspiration dance dizzily in your head.

As you begin to revise the list though, your enthusiasm fades. After a few minor changes you quickly realize there is a reason this particular seventy-five has never graced the top eight of a Grand Prix. After optimizing some of the spells and the mana base, you're left gazing at 51 of the 60 cards in the most popular tournament deck.

Countless players have had the same idea as you, and the logical conclusion every one of them came to lead them exactly where you are now and that's the deck everyone is playing. It doesn't exactly take divine inspiration to come up with a bad version of Delver sporting Fettergeist or a few copies of Lone Revenant to screw up your mana curve.

I am here to tell you that we've all been there. I've gotten incredibly excited about jamming Slivers in Legacy only to discover it's a Merfolk deck with horrible mana and four fewer lords. I've brewed a deck with Threaten effects and Ooze Garden only to realize that once I splashed black I was running a clunkier version of the Jund Sarkhan Vol, Nantuko Husk and Torrent of Souls pile Ryan Bushard and I had run 3 months earlier at Regionals. It's frustrating.

I am also here to tell you that you absolutely can not stop brewing.

Succumbing to the Hive Mind

The internet is both the best and worst thing to happen to Magic. It created a closely-knit community and ushered in an era of information sharing that has led to the game catching on in a way no one could have predicted back in 1993. It has also led to a hive mind mentality that has stifled creativity.

Most of what brewers come up with are bad versions of better decks, or ideas that won't work at all in practice. That's why a lot of people stop brewing and end up as yet another netdeck zombie.

That doesn't mean all of your ideas are bad. If you brew a lot, you will accumulate several good ideas and contribute to the game in a positive way. Does U/W Delver put five decks in the Top 8 at a nonprofessional event because it's the best deck, or because it's the deck the hive mind has decided everyone should be playing?

What Sam Black Does Better

When Sam Black has an idea for a deck, he makes the deck and tests it. He's had a lot of bad ideas. He's had more bad ideas than you, I bet. He's probably had more deck ideas that didn't pan out. He's been teased by his playtest partners way more than you have. He's slapped his own forehead more times for not realizing he spent ten minutes building a bad version of a good deck.

So if he hasn't given up on brewing, why should you?

Sam Black thought that Blood Artist was a good card, just like you did when you first read it. The difference is that when you both wondered if it was playable in Legacy, you probably thought, "If it were, someone would have come up with an idea by now," and he thought, "Let's test it."

Later in the article where I discuss decks from the weekend, I'll talk more about how Sam Black is my hero.

My Own Foibles

Normally I wouldn't discuss brewing at all and the pressure that fear of failure can put on you, but Sam Black's deck from the GP had quite an impact on me.

Recently, Ryan Bushard and I were trying to break Modern and we decided Zombie Infestation was the way to do it. We had [card Squee, Goblin Nabob]Squee[/card], Bloodghast, Gravecrawler, Faithless Looting, etc. and we had a good time brainstorming cards for it. I thought for half a second "Would this deck be better in Legacy?" and I immediately shot the idea down. If Bloodghast and Gravecrawler were Legacy playable, surely someone else would have come up with the idea already.

I don't dare imply that I would have come up with the deck Sam Black used to take the Legacy GP by storm. The idea to run a discard suite, including Tidehollow Sculler (which is a zombie!), and build it is as card advantage deck rather than the pseudo-dredge deck Ryan and I wanted to build in Modern, was inspired. I doubt I would have come up with as good a list as Sam did.

But I never gave myself a chance to even get close. Where I dismissed looking at how the Legacy card pool could improve the deck, Sam Black top-eighted a GP with a totally unique deck.

Most of my ideas are bad. But even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Go, brew something.

Picstravaganza!

Insert your own 2 explores joke here. They're still funny. Really.

First up we have a t-shirt bleached by Redditor Eander. That's a seriously ridiculous bleach job. I'm impressed with how it turned out. Great job, Eander!



 

Remember, printer ink costs more per ounce than champagne

Redditor "Redditorwhatever" points out that if you want to print out your DOTP six-card booster voucher, you may as well just buy the thing for what the ink would cost you. Black text on a white background is so 2011.



 

If you zoom in on the second card you can see an Intruder Alarm in the background

Redditor The_Red_Comet has very sharp eyes. He caught a very cool idea artist Karl Kopinski had for some art he was commissioned to do for M13. Nice catch, The_Red_Comet!

Weekend Decklists

What Happens in Atlanta Affects All of Us

The Legacy GP in Atlanta drew players from all over, tallying one of the biggest crowds for a Legacy GP in recent memory. Was it a mistake not to ban Griselbrand? How much did Land Tax affect the format? Why did I spend half an article talking about Sam Black? Let's find out!

Top 32 Legacy GP Deck Lists

There is a lot less to talk about here than I would like. Anyone who reads a lot of Twitter will note that there were a ton of copies of Karakas in evidence in Atlanta, which had two results.

  1. Karakas is now an absurd $80.
  2. There were no Griselbrand in the Top 8 -- again.

Maverick is still the deck I would play in Legacy right now as it has the tools to beat everything. It's the best Karakas deck and it has gobs of hate for the rest of the format.

A reason not to play Maverick? It dies to all the hate that Sam Black's new brew may bring to Legacy in the future. I don't know what he called it so I am going with:

Zombardment
Sam Black Legacy GP Atlanta 2012
60 cards
3  Badlands
3  Bloodstained Mire
2  Marsh Flats
3  Polluted Delta
3  Scrubland
2  Swamp
1  Undiscovered Paradise
3  Verdant Catacombs


20 lands

3  Blood Artist
4  Bloodghast
4  Carrion Feeder
4  Gravecrawler
3  Tidehollow Sculler


18 creatures

2  Bitterblossom
4  Cabal Therapy
4  Faithless Looting
3  Goblin Bombardment
4  Lingering Souls
4  Thoughtseize
1  Tragic Slip


22 other spells

Sideboard

2  Dark Confidant
1  Darkblast
2  Disenchant
2  Go for the Throat
2  Perish
2  Pithing Needle
3  Surgical Extraction
1  Vindicate


 

With more synergy than you can shake a stick at, this deck is easily the most fun-looking new Legacy deck I have seen in the past five years.

Generating two damage per creature with Goblin Bombardment plus Blood Artist, you can make quick work of an opponent who took a few early jabs from your zombies. Bloodghast + Undiscovered Paradise is a fun interaction. Making good use of Bitterblossom as well, this deck has a powerful discard suite, silly recurring creatures and several good sacrifice outlets, all of which add up to card advantage even blue has a tough time keeping up with.

The event was won by RUG Delver, piloted by Gaudenis Vidugiris. Interestingly enough, Gaudenis Vidugiris expressed interest in running Sam Black's "Zombardment" deck (I like that name and hope it catches on so I'm going to pretend that was always the name), but Black himself talked him out of it. Good thing, too, as the RUG deck he ran instead took him all the way to the top.

There were only three copies of Land Tax in the Top 32, which surprised a lot of people who I bet are starting to regret paying $45 apiece for theirs this week. I am going to give people a little more time to brew with this card because there is a sick amount of advantage there waiting to be unlocked. That can be your homework for this week, speculators.

Zombieless in Seattle

There was also a StarCity Open in Seattle this weekend, so let's see if the Legacy brewers there came to some different conclusions.

Top 32 Legacy Decklists

Initial signs point to yes. The Top 8 included seven different decks, only one RUG Delver build, and two Merfolk lists, including that of eventual winner Ian Kendall. The event really couldn't have been more different than GP Atlanta.

Martin Goldman-Kirst played an Aluren build I really like, putting the deck back in the spotlight after it had languished in obscurity for a few years. Great job, Martin!

Top 32 Standard Decklists

Maybe Delver isn't the elephant in the room after all. Managing four copies in the Top 8 in Legacy and four in Standard, it appears the flying nacatl may be beatable after all. Although Nick Harlow took Delver all the way to the finals, he was ultimately done in by Nathan Anderson's G/R Aggro deck.

Also in the Top 8 were three different types of pod decks. RUG, Naya and Zombie all made the cut. The Zombie Pod deck could have used more Gloom Surgeon if you ask me, but its use of Mortarpod is a good choice and propelled the deck into the Top 8.

Eight unique decks in the Top 8 point to a healthy and diverse format. I am pleased with these results.

Someone else who is going to be pleased soon is Phillip Johnson, the pilot of a monoblack deck that is only going to get better with Mutilate. Making use of Increasing Ambition and Sever the Bloodline, this deck is a great blueprint for making your own homebrew that may use some neglected cards with real potential.

That's All, Folks!

Join me next week when I will have more metagame developments to discuss and possibly a followup to the Jon Elden story. With M13 just around the corner, there will be a lot of exciting stuff to talk about in future weeks.

If you have a homebrew you've been working on but were afraid to share with anyone, post it in the comments. I'll post my own to get us started. No judgments, just brainstorming. Remember, most of your ideas are bad. That means some of them are good.

Until next week!

Living Lands (And How to Slay Them)

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My favorite card type in Magic is undoubtedly land. I'll cut just about any spell in my deck to squeeze in one more utility land, because there's nothing I enjoy more than hitting my land drops on time.

One thing I've learned since starting to play more competitive formats is that there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. There is an upward limit on the number of utility lands that you can play before flooding becomes a frequent problem.

I like to think of it as a bell curve. At one end is an incredibly greedy deck with very few lands. It may be inconsistent, but you'll absolutely crush opposition when you draws the right number of lands. At the other end is a deck full of nothing but mana sources. You may hit your land drops every turn, but if that's all you do, you're going to get crushed by people who are casting spells. It's important for most decks to walk the line between these two poles and try to find the sweet spot where you don't get flooded or screwed particularly often.

I love decks that let you break this rule with unnaturally high land counts. So it was incredibly exciting for me to see the deck @Andrew_Magrini was working on a few weeks ago. It was a Jund deck that did some absurd things by animating everyone's lands and crashing in for a billion damage.

I wanted to take this in a more controlling direction, and @GUDoug and I talked quite a bit about what a deck like that would look like with Ghave, Guru of Spores at the helm. The deck we came up with is hilarious and goes way over the top of typical strategies in Commander.

Of Life and Limb

The centerpiece of the deck are land animation effects, both its biggest strength and its biggest weakness. They set up some pretty crazy shenanigans with cards like Skullclamp and Verdant Succession. Everything else is built around these unique effects.

  • Kormus Bell
  • Life and Limb
  • Living Plane
  • Ambush Commander
  • Nature's Revolt
  • Living Lands

There are a couple different strategies to pursue after animating everyone's lands en masse.

One option is to build an aggressive Jund deck that smashes everyone's face in with stuff like In the Web of War and Shared Animosity. This is a hilarious avenue that can generate lots of damage quickly.

Alternately, you can build a recursion engine that aims to break cards like Planar Birth and Second Sunrise by sacrificing lands for value and rebuying them. After producing a critical mass of card draw and mana, you have merely to decide how to abuse it!

Starting the Engine

So your lands are creatures. Now what? The first thing you want to be aware of is that lands will have summoning sickness. We're going to include Concordant Crossroads to get around that. You could go even bigger with Akroma's Memorial too, but that's a little out of my budget for now and I haven't gotten a chance to try it yet.

The second thing we can do is encourage opponents to Armageddon themselves by chumping with their lands. Cards like Earth Surge will make our army huge enough for this task.

These things are both great Plan B's, but aren't the main focus of the deck.

What I really want to do is to turn our lands into other resources, like some token decks do after assembling their combo. Fortunately, since our lands will be creatures as well, we can run a good number of the same cards.

  • Ghave, Guru of Spores (Commander)
  • Skullclamp
  • Skullmulcher
  • Zuran Orb
  • Perilous Forays
  • Overgrown Estate
  • Squandered Resources
  • Ashnod's Altar
  • Harvester of Souls
  • Slate of Ancestry
  • Verdant Succession
  • Eldrazi Monument
  • Marsh Casualties
  • Curse of Death's Hold
  • Concordant Crossroads
  • Earth Surge
  • Beastmaster Ascension

These cards break the symmetry of the Living Lands effects and get you ahead on various resources. Cards, mana, life, and other things once we get a little further. Cards like Harvester of Souls are perfect for this deck, and sure to shine as a piece in our wacky Rube Goldberg machine.

In addition to generating value for us, we can use the animation effects to kill everyone else's lands. These aren't effects that I generally advocate playing, but I think the opportunity here is unique.

I just want to assemble Curse of Death's Hold and Kormus Bell against someone with Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. It may be because I'm vindictive, but I find the idea of [card Armageddon]armageddoning[/card] someone for the rest of the game incredibly amusing. Maybe after pulling it off once or twice I'll be satisfied and be ready to cut the interaction.

Preparing for Sunrise

So we've animated our lands. We've sacrificed them for value. How can we take it to the next level?

This is where the deck gets crazy, the part that I absolutely love. We get to use one of my favorite cards. Let's go Second Sunrise!

  • Nim Deathmantle
  • Planar Birth
  • Second Sunrise
  • Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
  • Melira, Sylvok Outcast
  • Cauldron of Souls
  • Faith's Reward
  • Shirei, Shizo's Caretaker

Once we've sacrificed our lands, we want to do it again and again, netting more cards, more mana and more life each time.

There are some narrow pieces here, such as Melira. But I want the density of these effects to be as high as possible so that I can find out what number the deck needs to function. If you're maxed out on animation spells and ways to recur lands and it still isn't enough, then the deck probably isn't going to work.

It's worth mentioning that there's another M13 spoiler in this deck: Faith's Reward. In case you haven't seen it, it is a one-sided Second Sunrise for 3W.

I think this is enough of an engine to get us started, especially since a number of these come close to going infinite on their own, and they interact particularly well together.

Imagine a sequence in which you cast Mikaeus, sacrifice your board, draw a bunch of cards and get your lands back with undying. Then you activate Cauldron of Souls and sacrifice all your lands again. Now they can undie again, and by that point you may have drawn a Second Sunrise, which can reset everything for a third time.

The plan is to dig through the deck and eventually find Eternal Witness. Then every iteration of your combo you sacrifice Eternal Witness, cast Second Sunrise to get back Eternal Witness which itself gets back Second Sunrise. At that point, winning is trivial. We'll wait until we know how many slots in our deck are necessary for the engine before we worry about that.

Drawing all the Cards

The hope here is to add more mechanisms to draw cards while you're comboing. Once you've found one way to rebuy your lands, all you want to do is draw into another one. Another big concern is making sure you have enough mana to continue to combo if you haven't found either Squandered Resources or Concordant Crossroads.

  • Sun Titan
  • Lotus Cobra
  • Well of Lost Dreams
  • Eternal Witness
  • Seer's Sundial
  • Grazing Gladehart
  • Regal Force

The most exciting card here is Well of Lost Dreams. It ties together some of our land sacrifice outlets like Zuran Orb and helps you dig through your deck to find missing pieces.

It's certainly possible to combo out without Eternal Witness, but it is harder. Eternal Witness provides a shortcut-able infinite loop that makes the combo more compact, harder to disrupt and mechanically easier to execute.

The biggest issue at this point is finding a way to make the combo more consistent. Setting up the pieces you need for the first iteration can be difficult without access to blue's card drawing and cantrips. You could run a ton of [card Demonic Tutor]Demonic Tutors[/card], but I don't really like the idea of pushing this into an overpowered combo deck as opposed to an engine deck with combo potential.

For Consistency's Sake

What I like most about engine combos is that you aren't dead if you whiff the first time you go for it. As long as you have a way to rebuy your lands and you don't get blown out by a counterspell, all you've done is generate a ton of value. If you draw the pieces to go for another iteration, then go for it, but otherwise you're still ahead.

The purpose of these tutors is to give you enough consistency to set up big turns that might lead into a combo, but not to make the deck's purpose to combo out as quickly as possible. A typical play with Dragonstorm was to play cantrip, ritual, ritual, Bogardan Hellkite. Similarly, sometimes with this deck you'll just cast Second Sunrise to draw a bunch of cards instead of going off.

  • Expedition Map
  • Academy Rector
  • Idyllic Tutor
  • Reap and Sow
  • Diabolic Intent
  • Green Sun's Zenith

It's not a ton to be sure. But with quite a few ways to set up each piece of the combo we don't need a whole mess of tutors. Just enough to find the missing piece. You could probably do a ton of good with something like Sensei's Divining Top and ramp spells to shuffle. You could also use effects like Enlightened Tutor and Eladamri's Call to find combo pieces more easily.

Filling in the Gaps

The last thing this deck needs is a kill condition and a way to protect itself from [card Wrath of God]Wrath of Gods[/card].

As for the effects that crush us, we're actually just cold to Wrath of God once our lands are animated. To be fair, so is everyone else, but I don't much relish playing a game where everyone's lands have been arbitrarily destroyed.

  • Blood Artist
  • Falkenrath Noble
  • Krosan Grip
  • Wickerbough Elder

Blood Artist and his friend are great role players for this deck, incidentally both a win condition and pseudo-engine piece with Well of Lost Dreams. We also have a few ways to protect ourselves from board sweepers that could kill our lands. I've picked Wickerbough Elder over other effects because you can rebuy it with Second Sunrise effects, and it can sit on the board and protect you at instant speed.

This puts us at fifty cards, which leaves just enough space for a few ramp spells and forty lands. The lands should be mostly Forests, to power up Life and Limb and other effects that care about Forests in particular. Taking that into account, we end up with this list:

Commander: Ghave, Guru of Spores

Untitled Deck

Creatures

Sorceries

Instants

Artifacts

Enchantments

Lands

6 Swamp
3 Plains
29 Forest

I'm very excited to get some games in with this deck and tune it as time goes on. We'll have to see whether or not this particular build ends up too combo-oriented.

If you're interested in the Jund version, get in touch with @Andrew_Magrini for his list.

Next week I want delve into the world of tribal and talk about some of the spoiled M13 cards. Since Avacyn Restored just came out, I think we'll have to give the set its due and build an Angel deck!

Carlos Gutierrez

cag5383@gmail.com
@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: Scouring Scars of Mirrodin

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It's hard to believe that Scars of Mirrodin is nearly two years old. It's nearing the end of its rotation through Standard and while many of the prices in the set are still under the influence of Standard pricing, there are still a lot of hidden gems in the set. In this article, I'm going to focus on the lesser-known cards and the casual stars. You know about what Copperline Gorge and Darkslick Shores go for, but I'm sure you'll come away from this with a more comprehensive knowledge of the set. If you're looking for throw-ins or running your own bulk box, you'll get a lot out of this.

Asceticism

$1.25

Everyone gets Troll-Shroud Hexproof! This is a great place to start the article because this is an absolute dog of a rare, but it still checks in for a buck. If you see these, angle for the throw-ins. This card is going nowhere and it's worth a bit more than bulk, even on Ebay.

Elspeth Tirel

$7.75

Five-drop Elspeth offers so much - lifegain, monster creature production and a good shot of hitting a nice ultimate. She never picked up because nobody in Standard had much of a need for her. She's the Cloudgoat Ranger of the format, big and clunky but board-dominating, but the Tokens decks just have not gotten to where they needed to be. Absent the Delver decks, I feel like Elspeth would have had a much better run. However, the chance of getting her Mana Leaked or Snapcasted makes this five-drop too hard to run out.

That said, Elspeth has great casual flavor. She makes three tokens! Over and over! I think $7.75 is a great price for these right now, since she's going to retain a lot of casual appeal for a long time. People will likely overvalue these in trades to your advantage if you're getting rid of them. I'm also kind of surprised that she's this cheap right now, since Planeswalkers don't usually dip this low if they have a relevant ability or two.

Geth, Lord of the Vault

$1.00

Geth is a good example of the bottom floor on Mythics that sits around a dollar. Geth isn't anything special and he's never seen constructed play, but Geth has enough casual appeal. He's a decently good Commander in monoblack decks and can dominate the lategame. What usually happens is that the Geth player gets their Cabal Coffers and Extraplanar Lens and enough Swamps to make about 26 mana and loot the choice bits from each graveyard. None of this is going to make Geth into a valuable card, but it's good to ask for him as a throw-in because most people see him as overcosted trash.

Koth of the Hammer

$4.50

Koth is a decently good Planeswalker. He isn't great because he asks you to build around him, unlike the top tier of Planeswalkers. He asks you to favor Mountains and protect him so he can do his thing. Koth has seen plenty of Constructed play, but he's not going to be making many appearances in Modern, his last market. On top of that, the casual market for cards that support mono-red control strategies is pretty slim. Koth isn't a guy that plays well with the 3-damage burn spells that most Red players favor.

Koth's value got crushed by the Duel Deck reprint. I doubt that he'll go much above $5.00, especially after rotation.

Mox Opal

$11.25

Mox Opal is a Mox that they got right. Chrome Mox was just a little too good, after all. Mox Opal asks that you commit a lot of artifacts to your deck, but it doesn't narrow things into "Affinity or unplayable." It's also made appearances in Tezzerator decks in Modern and in the Kuldotha Red decks of previous Standard months.

Since it has Mox in the name, people are going to hold onto this one. I'd like to think that it will drop a little in price, but I do not see this dipping below $10. It's the bedrock of Modern Affinity/Artifact Aggro/Metalcraft or whatever you want to call it. The Mox allows for some of the more busted openings, typically involving Signal Pests or Steel Overseers on turn 1 with backup armies. It also fixes the mana for things like Galvanic Blast or the backside of Ancient Grudge. On top of its general use in the deck, the point stands that just about all the decks that want Mox Opal will want four copies. That should keep demand up.

Platinum Emperion

$1.50

The big brother of Platinum Angel is bigger, but that's about all he's got going for him. He won't save you from decking or poison (or Coalition Victory) like his little sis will. He won't let you pay life, which means that you cannot use Force of Will, fix your colors with fetchlands or pay Phyrexian mana for goodies - that Gut Shot costs retail. Though Platinum Angel saw a fair bit of Constructed play, Emperion has seen basically none. That doesn't stop it from being an awe-inspiring casual card, so pick these up cheap and move them to the people who are gonna love him.

Skithiryx, The Blight Dragon

$2.50

Skrillex was the big hope for the Infect decks that largely failed to materialize. The idea was that, with Haste, he'd be the black Ball Lightning, coming from out of nowhere to end the game. He's still a big monster and he saw a tiny bit of Constructed play now and then. He was the bedrock of a million mono-black FNM decks, for example.

It's hard to call the future price on this card. He's got some unique abilities and he's got the Dragon Multiplier, the mathematical price advantage that makes even the worst Dragons worth something. This is far from the worst dragon and he's got a nice, juicy set of abilities. I wouldn't be surprised to see this Dragon end up quietly hitting the $5-8 mark in due time.

Tempered Steel

$1.00

Tempered Steel has gone up and down so much, you could have probably sold the card four times for a profit. It was nothing until LSV and crew started tearing up the place with free 3/3 Memnites and big Etched Champions. It's the sort of card that now and then would come into the spotlight because it was the right call for a particular week's tournament.

I'm unsure of whether Tempered Steel will make a splash in Modern because Affinity outclasses the deck as a whole. You could attempt to fit Tempered Steel into the existing Affinity deck, especially if you commit by ditching Galvanic Blasts and grabbing your Plains. While losing the burn would make the deck much weaker, it does mean that your Ornithopters become actual threats. Casting a double-mana card in a deck with only sixteen lands, most of them colorless, is a gusty move though.

Venser, The Sojourner

$5.00

Venser asks you to build a deck around him so that he lasts long enough to hit his Ultimate. He'll blink your Wall of Omens and retarget your Fiend Hunters. He's the kind of card people love to play with, the same people who flock to Crystal Shard to get more use out of their Eternal Witnesses. Venser decks came and went a little bit in Standard but they never made a great impact. Likewise, he shows up in a few Reveillark decks in Modern, but I don't think we'll all be scrambling for sets of the guy any time soon.

Venser was a good $20 card for awhile, but the duel deck just killed his value. Why would you pay $20 for a Planeswalker when that same $20 gets you two extra decks? The duel decks are a fine way to get Planeswalkers into the hands of players, but it's disappointing that they just use them to drop the price on the planeswalkers without approaching other money cards in Standard. At least now, players who really want the blink effect don't have to shell out crazy amounts for it.

This concludes our tour of the lesser-known corridors of Mirrodin. We'll pick up again soon as we look at the expansions to the block with an eye for the cards that escaped standard play but have not escaped the market's eye. I tend to space these articles out because sometimes, the casual market has not fully embraced cards that are still in Standard and like a fine wine or stinky cheese, it takes some time to mature and be appreciated.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Insider: The Booming Business of Ratios, Part 2 – Why Dealers are Badass

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If you remember from my last article, dear readers (Insider: The Booming Business of Ratios, Part 1 – Why Force of Will is Simply Worse Than You Think), we were discussing the concept of convenience and how it relates to value. The less something's worth, the less you care about it, and the more likely you are to get it at a discount. I argued that you should trade for low value cards to get better deals and avoid money cards like Force of Will because everyone knows how much it's worth and are less likely to willingly trade it at a loss.

If you haven't already, I would recommend at least skimming the previous article so the totally out of context examples I'm making are at least a little less nonsensical.

The Force/Paladin Conundrum

Continuing with this list of hypothetical situations, a person trading a Force cares more about the price than a person trading a pile of Paladin equivalents. They’re more willing to demand a specific price and grip tightly to their playset until they find a person who’s willing to meet their price.

The more expensive the card, the more work a person is willing to do to trade for or away at the right price - would you dump your Power 9 piece for 10% less than its value? If you said yes, please feel free to contact me. I want your entire collection.

If trading is a convenience, as long as the convenience isn’t outweighed by the value lost in completing the transaction, then a person is generally willing to complete the trade. Yes, you value your Thoughtseize at 45, but it’s Modern season and I need 4. This is quicker and overall cheaper than buying them, so I’ll make the trade.

Need, attributed to Perigosa and the magic of Google

Compare that to this: it’s NOT Modern season, I don’t need Thoughtseizes and you’re valuing at 50. Why the hell would I trade for them? It’s convenient to use your Standard stock as tradebait for cards you need because you value them at barely more than the cardstock they’re printed on (no matter if you say 6 or not during the trade, it’s not likely that you look at Silverblade Paladin and think ‘wow! This is better than a 5 dollar bill!’)

Black lotus? Son, that transcends cardboard so hard it can’t even be considered in the same level of reality as Paladin.

The Methods

Unfortunately, this cuts both ways. If you have a cunning collection of 5 dollar cards that you’ve been suavely picking up for massive chunks under their actual value, good on you, but how are you going to convince the Standard-under-valuer (every store’s got one)? He/she insists that the card on his/her end of the table is worth something, and even if it's wrong, won't listen because you won't budge, trying to maintain your bottom line.

Because I trade in such a small pool of people on a daily basis, and because maintaining an honest and positive impression on the people I interact with is important to me, I have to somehow deal with this problem without simply bullying or bruteforcing the trade into occurring. I know I can convince the guy that the trade is fine, but what if I see him three times a week in History 282 and I literally live down the hall? Why would I want to risk that relationship? As such, it's important to look at the list below, and remember something very crucial: You don't need to make value on every trade. I'll repeat that. You don't need to make value on every trade. For it to be a profit you have to make more money than you lose money, and being willing to make a trade that doesn't give you anything but the opportunity to help a friend goes a long way.

The Process, Listified

Both of these lists are very important.

In any case, here are the steps of my process to pay for my monthly allotment of food:

  1. Start with cards.
  2. Turn them into more cards of similar quality by abusing my superior knowledge of the price dynamics of Magic.
  3. Once I have plenty, diversify a little into slightly better and slightly worse cards.
  4. Once I have diversity, trade for undervalued gems.
  5. Sell gems.
  6. Take a portion of proceeds, buy a totally badass card with very little competition in the area.
  7. Trade at my own price for cards.
  8. Repeat.

Let’s start with the first step I haven’t explained yet, step 3.

If everything in your binder is worth 5 dollars, how do you expect to trade for the Stromkirk Noble that your trading buddy values at 2? Obviously you need to get it, but you need smaller schlock to do so. Similarly, if a guy has a random Exploration he calls 13, offering 3 Paladins is going to set off some alarm bells. Having bigger cards to match up with the higher priced stock is also important.

Step 4 should make sense, since I previously stated my love of Death Baron and his ilk in the first couple paragraphs of the first part of article. If you didn't read those sentences, here's what I think about him: since he’s traditionally undervalued (by a lot), you can compound the value you made off your crap card ratios by trading into him, although he's becoming more well known.

However, I see the following mistake a lot - keeping Death Baron in your binder and valuing him at what he’s worth. If he’s undervalued the world around, why would someone want to trade for him? Derp.  Remember that.

At some point, your pile of Sanguine Bonds, Elvish Pipers and Death Barons (you obviously don't need to trade for those three exactly, they're just examples of cards that you can get for cheap and then will be unable to trade effectively. Substitute your favorites- you'll find some, I assure you) will have pretty much locked up a significant percentage of your card value in cards that nobody wants for the right price. Therefore, step 5.

Step 5, or What You Do Next

Sell ‘em all. I don’t care if you think that selling your 10 dollar retail death baron for 4 dollars is dumb, if you got him for a Silverblade Paladin, who cares? Paladin is probably not worth 4 buy. In addition, it doesn’t matter if you aren’t in this business for cash. Whether you are or aren’t, step 6 is an excellent approach: Buy a card or 2 that you can name your price on.

Quick, value these.

What’s the value of a foil Japanese Marsh Flats? I’ll bet that 95% of traders can’t name a solid value without getting lucky on your shot-in-the-dark guess. Interestingly, I got offered 80 dollars in cash for each one I had from a dealer at GP: Minneapolis a few weekends ago, and they’re selling on StarcCty for 90.

One closed on eBay for 100, another pair for 60 each- If the dealer was off by that much, how likely is it that the EDH guy who wants ‘ALL THE PIMP IN THE WORLD’ either A: Has one, or B: Knows/cares how much it costs, exactly? '

Unlike Force of Will, which closes in enormous quantity on eBay every single day, ridiculous cards like this have very loose values available for interpretation and manipulation.

As a less extreme example, say you trade in for a NM foil Sensei’s Divining Top. How likely is it, do you think, that you could explain to a rabidly interested individual that you’re uncomfortable trading it for Standard stuff unless you got a significant chunk of value in the exchange? That's not a trick question, the answer is 'very'.

In my case I’m just trying to bring my quantity of high-movement cards up significantly, so I’m willing to dump that top immediately after ‘buying’ it to reset my binder. After having traded myself into a corner with death baron and his ilk, suddenly I can be back in business with the cards that are now the new FOTM (Flavor of the Month), and happily trade myself into stagnation once again.

A Complicated Example. Read Twice.

You will almost invariably make money off this if you know your values, since you’ve been trading for undervalued cards the whole time. As a rough example, if you trade your 100 dollar binder into a 200 dollar binder (not unreasonable in the slightest) over the course of a month or two, you could easily take 100 dollars of that that isn’t trading anymore and sell it for a foil Sensei's Divining Top.

The cards that were trading well you keep, and the Elvish Piper-esque schlock you turn into a fabulous foil. What you do from there is personal preference, whether you trade it into a massive pile of Paladin equivalents or simply set it aside for your collection.

A picture of the Punny joke I'm about to make

 While this doesn’t seem like much, especially compared to the 100% increase your binder made previously, this step is one I’ve found to be crucial.

Having a binder full of undervalued cards is a quick and easy way to build up the total value of your collection, but your options are limited. Even if you made no money whatsoever on the resell, even if you LOST money, you’d still be fine.

People are afraid to sell to dealers because they 'lose value', but what if that perceived value is pure profit you can't trade anymore? Why wouldn't you sell? Sell two Death Barons, buy lunch. Sell ten, buy a Flooded Strand. That 40 dollar card is going to do so much more than your 2.5 playsets of Barons ever would, despite the massive difference in retail prices.

Step 8

Repeat, Ad Nauseum.

~

Hopefully you enjoyed this, or at least it was helpful in your quest for greater value. If you have questions, comments or snide remarks, I eagerly look forward to reading them in the comments section.

Avatar photo

Tucker McGownd

Hi, I'm Tucker McGownd. I'm a low risk trader that spends most of my time in Minnesota, where I go to school, play magic, study for school, play Ultimate for my college team, study for school, and read. I've been playing for a long, long time (I first played during Mercadian Masques block, and first bought a pack in Urza's Saga). I was incredibly lucky when I cracked packs until I learned how much cards were worth, at which point I proceeded to open Thoughtlace in every set until Scars, where I picked up more than my fair share of molten psyche. I'm currently looking forward to the inevitable reprint of Chimney Imp.

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Adventures in Qualifying: WMCQ and PTQ results

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Last week I mentioned that I recently took my new pet deck, Wolf Run Black, to two major events. Today I wanted to talk about what happened in these events, and then look at the deck anew in light of the metagame becoming a little more diverse. First, take a look at the list I ran.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Birds of Paradise
1 Glissa, the Traitor
1 Borderland Ranger
2 Phyrexian Metamorph
4 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Stingerfling Spider
3 Grave Titan
4 Primeval Titan

Spells

3 Doom Blade
2 Geths Verdict
3 Green Suns Zenith
4 Rampant Growth
1 Ratchet Bomb
4 Sphere of the Suns

Lands

4 Woodland Cemetery
1 Dragonskull Summit
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Glimmerpost
2 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Kessig Wolf Run
5 Forest
3 Swamp
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Curse of Deaths Hold
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Tree of Redemption
1 Viridian Corrupter
1 Acidic Slime
1 Stingerfling Spider
1 Devils Play
2 Sever the Bloodline
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Blasphemous Act

World Magic Cup Qualifier

Round 1: Dungrove Green

For the WMCQ my sideboard was a little different from the one above. I had neither Blasphemous Act nor Acidic Slime. That is relevant because I would consider Dungrove Green to be one of the unfavorable matchups and those two spells are great in this match.

Your removal matches up poorly against their threats and their untargetable [Card Dungrove Elder]Dungrove Elders[/Card] give you fits. Game one the plan is to find Glissa, the Traitor and ramp into a Primeval Titan so you can set up the poison kill. Sometimes this works, but if they have too much pressure you can easily run out of time to kill them. Glimmerpost helps a lot here, but usually you need to get Inkmoth Nexus and Kessig Wolf Run off of the first Primeval Titan before fetching [Card Glimmerpost]Glimmerposts[/Card] the following turn.

Without access to the right sideboard, and having mulliganed to five game one, this match was over rather quickly. I spent my plethora of extra time in the round getting my head back into the game and figuring out how I would have sideboarded if I had access to more cards.

0-1

Round 2: Delver

When I saw my opponent open on Seachrome Coast, I panicked a little inside. Here was the whole reason I built this deck. The reason I chose to play it. I kept reiterating this to myself in my head during the match.

In game one, I killed his turn one [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] on turn three and took the game over with uncounterable titans. Game two was a little different as I never saw a titan, but with Solemn Simulacrum, Kessig Wolf Run and removal to stop his board progress, I was able to finish the game decisively.

Though I did not think this match a great sample, I was encouraged that I beat Delver with the deck I had designed to do so.

1-1

Round 3: U/B Poison

No, this deck did not contain Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas. Yes, it did have Phyrexian Crusader and other infect creatures. No, it wasn’t good, but it did manage to defeat me one game.

The first game was easy because I killed his first two infect creatures and then beat him with a titan. Game two he drew lots of creatures and then surprise killed me with Runechanter's Pike. Game three, I brought Viridian Corrupter back in to tutor for. However, I did not end up needing the artifact removal because my Sever the Bloodline blew him out and titans finished the job.

2-1

Round 4: Naya Wolf Run

While building Wolf Run Black, I thought that Doom Blade would give me an edge in the mirror. This is apparently not the case. Often, they present too many threats for three [card Doom Blade]Doom Blades[/card] to swing the match.

In this case, he had Entreat the Angels, though he didn't draw it against me. What he did have was an improved poison kill with Slayer's Stronghold. This land allows a Wolf Run player to do a couple awesome things. First, it gives the second titan they play haste, which is obviously powerful. Second, it allows them to pump an Inkmoth Nexus for a decent amount of poison damage, while still leaving up mana for other spells.

Though this match was close and went to three games, my opponent ended up on the winning side. I kept some very interesting hands in this match which probably would have paid off if not for some sweet topdecks from my opponent.

2-2

At 2-2, my chances of top eight were slim to none but I stayed in to get more experience with the deck.

Round 5: Delver

Sometimes keeping risky hands pays off. Recently, perhaps more often than I care to admit, I have been keeping risky hands with a huge upside. In this match, I kept a one land hand with both Sphere of the Suns and Borderland Ranger. It did not pay off though and I lost a four minute game one.

I won game two because my opponent boarded completely wrong. After the match, I asked him what he thought I was playing and he said Zombies. His boarding in the dark allowed me to trounce him with removal and titans. Game three was close but when Wolf Run gains twelve life, the aggressive deck has a lot to overcome. I never dropped below twelve life.

The bullet Huntmaster of the Fells helped a lot in this game as well. I really liked the one-of Huntmaster but I don't think the build can support any more. I did draw it naturally but with three Green Sun's Zenith, finding it is not hard.

3-2

Round 6: Delver

Having bumped my record back up to the winning side, I figured there was a good chance I would have to play Delver again. When I saw my opponent was indeed on the dreaded menace itself, I became excited to try my hand against my target matchup again and learn more about it.

I took game one with uncounterable titans but he came right back in game two with two blind flipped [card Delver of Secrets]Delvers[/card] and a total of four [Card Vapor Snag]Vapor Snags[/Card] between the actual spell and Snapcaster Mage. Game three was a close one but I gained some life from Glimmerpost and got in some damage with a couple [Card Solemn Simulacrum]Solemn Simulacrums[/Card]. After I stabalized with Stingerfling Spider, I was able to land a titan to finish the game.

For some reason, no one expected the spider but it was one of the best cards in my deck on the weekend. One maindeck and a second in the sideboard is exactly what you want for this matchup.

4-2

Round 7: Dungrove Green

I was feeling good about my 4-2 record until I saw that I was facing another mono-forest opponent. Even factoring in my experience from earlier, my deck was not built to beat this deck. It was a terrible and frustrating two games. He had lots of [card Dungrove Elder]Dungroves[/card] and Phyrexian Metamorph to kill [Card Glissa, the Traitor]Glissa[/Card] and copy my titans. I did not really stand a chance without the missing sideboard cards.

4-3

Round 8: G/R Aggro

Even though I was already knocked out from the prize money, I still wanted to finish the event. This turned out to be one of the most fun rounds of the weekend. My disheartened opponent sat down and announced that he would keep whatever hand he drew. I cracked a couple jokes to lighten the mood.

We ended up having a ton of fun with his blind keeps. To tell the truth, both of his hands were quite good. The first one was triple Strangleroot Geist and four lands. Normally I think that draw would wreck a lot of players. I drew pretty well this game and my turn four Grave Titan shut down all his guys. Game two was similar but I gained a lot of life in the process before again locking the game down with Grave Titan.

5-3

With a final record of 5-3 and losses to the mirror and a deck I didn't prepare for, I was still happy with the results. I felt confident that with different pairings, I would have landed in the top eight.

On the back of this confidence, combined with my sideboard changes, I was ready to take down the PTQ the next day.

Tournament #2 - PTQ

Round 1: Splicer Delver

This version of Delver, dedicated to Blade Splicer into Restoration Angel, was by far the toughest. A decent draw like Mana Leak turn two, Blade Splicer turn three and Restoration Angel turn four is likely to overrun any deck.

Game one he had a clunky draw and I beat him. Game two he led with the sequence above and even Grave Titan was unable to dig me out of that hole. I think I could have stabilized if not for the [Card Vapor Snag]Vapor Snags[/Card].

Game three was the closest game of the whole weekend. I had an early Doom Blade to stop a flipped [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] but he quickly recovered and developed an overwhelming board presence. On the final turn before I killed him, he took me down to three life. Through a complex sequence of blocking, removal and tight play, I was able to win the game, even through his double Hero of Bladehold from the board.

1-0

Round 2: Dungrove Green

Unfortunately, my opponent this round was a good friend. I did know his list though. Revenge of the Hunted is quite a beating and I almost lost because of it. Game one was a stalemate until I got multiple titans in play. Game two he almost got revenge by forcing me to chump block a 14/14 Wolfir Silverheart with two Primeval Titans. I may have been at three life, but I still dealt him ten poison on my turn to seal the match.

2-0

Round 3: Naya Wolf Run

It seems like whenever an interesting build of Wolf Run appears at an event I partake of, I am required to play against it. Unlike the Naya Wolf Run deck from the day before, this one had Restoration Angel. The angel shut down my poison kill and blinked his titans, and yes, that really is as good as it sounds. He dispatched me in two games and I was left wondering how I could have beaten him.

2-1

Round 4: U/W Midrange

This delverless Delver deck plays like a traditional U/W Control deck. This is exactly the type of deck that every variety of Wolf Run preys on. Neither of the two games did I feel threatened and although it took a little while to play through Gideon Jura, my opponent did not really stand a chance against the best cycle of six-drops ever printed. His deck was powerful and has proven itself, but my deck is not the matchup it is looking for.

3-1

Round 5: RUG Pod

I had not actually played against this version of Pod before but it's similar to decks I had played against and I had a clear vision of what was necessary to beat it.

Game one, I had the tools. A little removal, the necessary ramp, and a follow-up titan were all it took to take him down. Game two I could not find removal for his threats or for Birthing Pod. His board got far out of control due to the deck’s namesake and a burn spell finished me off before I could stabilize.

Game three was basically in my control the whole time. I blew up his artifact and killed his Huntmaster of the Fells. Once that happened, it was time for the titan clean-up team to swoop in and finish things off.

4-1

Round 6: Venser Control

This match was my most frustrating defeat in recent memory. Who even plays Venser Control? I didn’t know anyone still did. My opponent said that any Solar Flare deck is basically unwinnable for him so I would not recommend this deck, considering that Solar Flare is making such a comeback.

Both games went nowhere. Game one, I did not deal a single point of damage or poison. He locked me down early with Tumble Magnet, disappeared a few combat phases, then cast Venser the Sojourner. If I had seen a Doom Blade at any point, my titans would have dealt lethal damage.

Game two, I mulliganed to four cards but I was pleased with the fight I put up. I actually thought I was going to win this game when I cast Devil's Play for thirteen damage. I was going to flash it back next turn but relying on Sphere of the Suns for my red mana proved a liability since his [Card Tumble Magnet]Tumble Magnets[/Card] could tap them down.

4-2

With that, my hopes of top eight were shattered. I decided not to keep fighting for the meager prize since my friends were eager to start our five hour drive home.

Overall, I was happy with the performance of the deck. Here’s how the matches look when compiled.

Wins:

  • 5 Delver decks
  • U/B Poison
  • G/R Aggro
  • Monogreen Dungrove
  • U/W Midrange
  • RUG Pod

Losses:

  • 2 Monogreen Dungrove
  • 2 Naya Wolf Run
  • 1 Venser Control

Beating all five Delver decks I faced on the weekend was quite the accomplishment and normally I think results like that would lead to at least one top eight slot. Unfortunately, in light of the crazy decks I had to play against, this did not turn out to be true. Wolf Run Black still seems well positioned in the metagame right now.

Dissecting the Metagame

The results of recent events may imply that Delver is on its way out but I do not believe that to be true. Delver might be down, but don’t count it out. The boxing champ might have taken a couple blows to the face at the latest Star City Games tournament in Detroit, but it will recover.

Despite a lot of Delver decks losing in the swiss, there was one that made it through to Top 8 and almost took the whole event. The sole Top 8 Delver deck ended in second place after beating a lot of very competent players that also made it that far. Take a look at the top 16 decks from that event.

1st – U/B Zombies
2nd – Delver
3rd – Esper Midrange
4th – Esper Midrange
5th - Grixis Control
6th – Esper Control
7th – Bant Pod
8th – G/R Aggro
9th – Mono Blue Infect Delver
10th – Naya Pod
11th – Delver
12th – Naya Aggro (no Pod)
13th – Delver
14th – Wolf Run
15th – Mono Green Dungrove
16th – RUG Pod

Delver will adapt. This is the wisdom you should take from this event. Delver, like its Caw-Blade predecessor, will be the best deck until it rotates out of the environment. Delver players will figure out how to play against new version of archetypes and develop cutting edge sideboarding strategies that will keep it on top.

Three copies of the best deck in the Top 16 implies that Wizards made the right decision by not banning any cards. I would bet this is the outlier and not the average for events from here on out.

This seems like a good metagame sample for what you should expect at the next big event you are attending. You will most likely have to play against a ton of Delver along the way though, so don’t forget about the best deck when choosing a deck.

As for me, I would still choose Wolf Run Black. This sample from the Top 16 seems very similar to the array of decks I had to play against at my two big events. I think Wolf Run Black is ready to take down some events. Will you be the one to play it?

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force of Wolf Run Black!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Quietly, Modern Sneaks Back In

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This was a very exciting week, because we have more Modern results! I wrote a few weeks back about why it was a good idea to start moving on Modern cards, and now we see even more clearly what we want to pick up. Doug Linn touched on this event on Monday, and his advice to pick up cheap Birthing Pods is sound. But even in the Pod lists there is plenty going on that may not have been obvious.

If you’re lost, I’m talking GP: Yokohama, which happened last weekend and drew more than 1,500 players to a Modern tournament. It’s important we talk about that number. That’s 1,500 Lingering Souls playing Wizards’ new format. It was the largest tournament in Japanese history.

If you were ever on the fence about investing in Modern, this should sway you. It’s a sign that the format is popular, healthy and here to stay. There’s no excuse anymore to not buy in, especially since the seasonal nature gives you even more of an opportunity to invest cheaply.

There’s a really diverse amount of decks that won grinders before the event, even if not all of these decks translated into Top 8. It also stands to note that Affinity had the best conversion rate, getting players into Day 2 from Day 1. That means the Robots, never far out of mind in Modern, have survived a few new sets being added and are ready to stick around for next season.

So let’s look at the Top 8, and some of the breakout cards and financial opportunities contained therein.

To start, here’s the top 8.

-       1 Jund

-       1 B/W Tokens

-       2 No-Melira Pod

-       2 Melira Pod

-       1 Affinity

-       1 Faeries

That’s four Pod decks in the Top 8. That definitely makes Pod a great target in the next few months. While everyone else is looking to unload their Pods before they rotate, you can snag them for a buck or two in trade and look forward to a spike sometime down the road. The toolbox and flexibility Pod and similarly hot pickup Chord of Calling give you make the deck very resilient.

No Melira in Melira Pod?

I honestly thought this might have been a typo at first, but two of the Top 8 “Melira Pod” decks had no Meliras! This is because infinite life doesn’t mean much when people are planning on doing infinite+1 damage to you in this format. I still like Melira as a 1-of in these decks to give them more flexibility to gain the life in situations where it wants it, not to mention the insta-kill with Murderous Redcap.

So why did the Meliras get cut? The answer, of course, is Restoration Angel. A card I tagged as a player when the set was spoiled, it’s had a huge impact on Modern. It fits perfectly into a Pod deck, and provides an instant win with Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker. Kiki-Jiki is another solid pickup, since it just saw a reprint and probably won’t see another for a while.

Even more important than the differences in the decks are the similarities. All four ran a full playset of Kitchen Finks. The card isn’t exactly cheap, but it’s not coming down, is harder to reprint due to the Persist keyword and is insane in any number of decks. Grab these in trade during the off-season (now) when people are less worried about them and hold until Modern season. This is probably one of the most stable moves in the format.

Looking ahead to Pod staying Enemy No. 1 next year, things like Torpor Orb, Grafdiggers Cage, Spellskite and Aven Mindcensor are the best ways to hate on the deck. The upside on these isn’t likely great, since only the latter two are likely to be maindecked, and usually not in 4s hurts the upside.

Another great answer card with more upside is Linvala, Keeper of Silence. She checks in at $8 out of stock on SCG and a buck above that on TCGPlayer. Capitalize on this gap while you can, and don’t be surprised to see this Legacy Maverick-playable card shoot way past $10 next Modern season, which is a lot closer than it seems right now.

Enough about Pod

The deck I hate most in Modern is RG Tron, since it’s so mindless and the least “Magic-like” experience in Modern. It’s similar to Dredge in that regard. But this event showed a distinct lack of Tron, in any combination. There was also a lack of Griselbrand in the Top 8, though one copy won a Grinder. If this deck goes on to become a thing again next season, the move is into Goryos Vengeance. As a $3 card from Betrayers, there’s a lot of upside here, though I’m not sure how good that deck actually is.

Moving on to the rest of the Top 8, let’s look at the winning deck, BW Tokens. It’s a sweet-looking deck, and most of the financial opportunities lie in the Uncommons.

Tidehollow Sculler, Spectral Possession and Zealous Persecution all could pay off big since you can get in so cheaply. Of course the deck also makes great use of Lingering Souls, which isn’t a Modern-only pickup, though I do think it’s a great time to get into Souls, since it will be making a big enough impact on Standard post-rotation to at least double in price.

As for the rest of the deck, Windbrisk Heights has some nice upside, coming in at $5 right now. Most people will let it go cheaper than that if you can actually find any in binders, so targeting it seems like an easy play.

Looking to next level the deck, the easiest answers are Ratchet Bomb and Engineered Explosives. Of these, the Explosives (and maybe Academy Ruins?) is the better play since Bomb is still in Standard. Explosives also occasionally pops up in Legacy and has a set-specific keyword, so I wouldn’t expect a reprint anytime soon.

Casually up to $12, by the way

One more note from the deck, even though it was just a 2-of. Fetid Heath. If this doesn’t blow your mind, you’re more ahead of the game than most — It’s a $12 card, with exactly one in stock on SCG. Eventide was basically just not opened, so anything out of that set is gold, just look at $10 Deathbringer Liege. All of the filter lands are good pickups right now, especially since Shocklands seem to be getting the reprint treatment. I’m after all the Filters, but especially the ones from Eventide.

Everything else

Looking at the other decks, it’s basically everything you would expect. Jund is Jund, Affinity is Affinity, and Faeries has Fae in it. Vedalken Shackles, which was $30 for awhile on SCG, is down to $20, but I’m not crazy about getting it at that price.

Cryptic Command, on the other hand, could be primed to move past its $15 price point. The insanely powerful spell was certainly played last season, but never seemed to really dominate. As the format matures, the Blue decks seem to be showing up (surprise), and Cryptic could easily shoot past $20 next season.

The most interesting thing out of the Affinity deck is the lack of Steelshapers Gift. The card spiked last season but then actually saw less and less play, since it turns out Steel Overseer is actually better in that slot. SCG has a ton of those in stock at $3, and there may be a little upside here, though nothing outstanding. Affinity is what it is, and everyone knows about it, so there’s not really any surprises going on to spike a card. I wouldn’t be afraid to get out of the Gift, though.

Threads of Disloyalty is another card I’ve mentioned from time to time, and it showed up in pretty decent numbers last weekend (though all in the sideboard). Another Betrayers rare, it’s priced at $5 on SCG and is a safe, if not incredibly sexy, investment.

That pretty much covers it. It was definitely a good event for the Modern format, and since it’s received relatively little press here in the U.S. it gives us some time to get ahead of the format a little bit. Plan, and trade, accordingly.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

 

Addendum: Don’t forget to check out the latest cast of Brainstorm Brewery, the financial podcast I co-host, where we delve into the spoiling of M13, and, more importantly, what isn’t in the set.

Insider: Legacy and Standard Summer Calls

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In April of last year we saw Mental Misstep shake the roots of the Legacy format and lead to an extremely rapid banning. At the time, we looked at how it would affect Legacy and made some pretty sweet predictions regarding Aether Vial (among others). Now that spoilers from M13 are warming up, I see two fan favorite Legacy decks gaining some pieces, and Aether Vial could be a winner. And it’s not the only one.

Legacy

Aether Vial, currently under $9, is lower than what it’s growth chart would indicate. If it followed similar growth patterns to other Legacy staples, it would be sitting at a solid $12-15. I’m expecting a fairly rapid climb up to those levels due to an increase in play from two key decks: Goblins and Merfolk. Both got new pieces from Magic 2013, and even if they don’t prove to have lasting power in the format, they will be seeing increased play in at least the short term.

Wasteland is another card on my radar. It’s on a dip right now, and is seeing tons of play. I expect decks to shift towards this card even more as they try to counteract BUG Control, Sneak and Show, RUG Delver and others. Further, the Aether Vial decks typically play Wasteland, so if they see increased play, Wasteland will also.

Merfolk

Legacy Merfolk gets a new and improved Lord of Atlantis in the newly spoiled Master of the Pearl Trident. We’ll now see virtually 8 Lord of Atlantis in a Merfolk deck, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Augur of Bolas sneaks in U/W versions that play Swords to Plowshares. Without having to play Phantasmal Image, Merfolk picks up a little consistency, and an actual strict improvement over the older Lord itself. A deck like Merfolk maindecks enough disruption and a fast enough clock to put up a decent fight against both varieties of Griselbrand decks.

Further, Phantasmal Image can’t wear an Umezawa's Jitte, and having easy access to cast Force of Will is about the best defense to combo that Aggro decks can get. Merfolk is otherwise a fairly inexpensive deck, so if it does pick up in popularity, players will flock to it. The only other card that may see some increased demand is Wasteland, especially considering it’s played in many of the decks in the format already, and is a decent way to combat Sol Lands. I could see this climbing back to $45 again.

Goblins

Goblins pick up a card in Krenko, Mob Boss. I’m not certain this card will make huge waves, but it seems like a pretty sweet card to sneak in via Goblin Lackey. It has great synergy with Piledriver, and is a sizable body on his own. Goblins won a StarCityGames Open just a couple weeks ago, off the back of Cavern of Souls. This deck is for real. Even without Krenko, the deck is strong, but I can see him being a strong addition, even if only one copy. Again we have another deck that features Wasteland. Goblins has a decent game against Show and Tell decks, and can put a scary clock against most of the format. Rishidan Port is strong against both Ancient Tomb and City of Traitors, and access to Red Elemental Blast gives them some protection post-board.

Standard

Thundermaw Hellkite

This is another card I want to talk about today. Thundermaw Hellkite is a 5 mana 5/5 flier, that has haste, and taps all opponents fliers while pinging each of them for 1. This card will undeniably be played in Standard, the only question is how much. Not a large variety of decks can play something like this, but it can swing a game pretty quickly. As a top end to an all-in red deck, it’s a bit expensive, but likely an inclusion. But as a mid-range or control finisher, this card is dangerous. Mark Rosewater said he wanted a Dragon at the level of Baneslayer Angel, and I think he found it. I don’t think it will see the heights that Baneslayer did, but would probably float around $15 indefinitely.

Akroma’s Memorial

This card is already $14 based purely on Commander play, and in a Standard Format that has Mana Dorks, Primeval Titan and Solemn Simulacrum, I expect this card to be in high demand, especially early on before many are opened. Sitting at Mythic Rare, this will be a $20 card in the early times as Commander folks will be hard to give up this staple from their deck. Longer term, I expect it to only be just barely higher than it’s current price, between $15-18.

Disciple of Bolas

This card seems pretty spicy to me, and pre-orders for $3. I don’t know that it will climb much higher than that, but if it sees any serious play, I could see it jumping up. It’s certainly a gamble, but it’s one I’m considering. I envision sacrificing a Geralf’s Messenger to this guy for maximum value.

Out of the newest spoilers, which ones are standing out above the rest? Any sleepers that we haven’t talked about yet? I’m really looking forward to the pre-release, and a new spin on both limited and constructed.

MTGO IPA Draft – Name Three Reasons to Incinerate Tickets

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Everybody knows that 4-3-2-2 drafts are awful value. The prize pool for them includes one fewer pack than an 8-4 or a swiss draft. Additionally, you really don’t increase your bankroll by very much when you win them. This in mind, a person would have to have a pretty good reason (or a total lack of any) to play in a 4-3-2-2.

So why is it that I’m currently in a queue for such a low EV draft?

Because Invasion block is sweet.

If you were unaware, there are some pretty neat things happening on MTGO right now on account of its 10th anniversary. At first I was just excited to crush some gold queues, but I also have an affinity for experiencing different draft formats.

Yup. Common.

Most of the time I end up being widely disappointed by older limited formats. Tempest block was a somehow worse version of Zendikar. Urza block was miserable if you weren’t the guy playing Pestilence. Invasion block, however, is easily in the top five draft formats of all time.

Avacyn Restored has been extremely lame to draft in my limited (no pun intended) experience with it. For the most part, you just pick two colors and pick the best card for those colors in each pack.

Invasion is about thirteen times more complex. For starters, you can play anywhere from two-five colors*, and within each color combination there are a lot of choices to be made about exactly what you want your deck to do. In only seven drafts, I’ve played everything from very aggressive Gaea's Might decks to extremely durdly five-color control decks. The best part is that I still have no idea which route is better, if there even is a correct answer to that question.

*I suppose you could also try mono-color, but I sure have no intention of it.

I’ll say right off the bat that if you’re looking to grind value out of MTGO, then drafting IPA isn’t in your best interest. The 4-3-2-2 prize support is embarrassing and the money rares are few and far between (though, to be fair, there are a few commons that are worth .25-1 ticket).

Of course, playing limited on MTGO isn’t exactly a high EV venture in the first place. If you’re drafting on the regular you’re either doing it to refine your skill set or to have a good time. Either way, IPA delivers as both a skill intensive and immensely fun format.

Here’s where I think Invasion shines as compared to other limited environments:

Interesting Mana Fixing

If you compare the mana fixing in IPA to that of Ravnica or Shards of Alara, you’ll quickly notice that you had to work a lot harder for it in IPA.

Compare the Lair cycle, the tri-land cycle and bouncelands:

I can’t say definitively which I’d most want to have in a given deck, but I can say with certainty that it wouldn’t be the Lairs. Having such drawbacks on color-fixing forces a player to make tough decisions about how deep they want to go in terms of colored mana requirements.

Invasion’s Cameo cycle isn’t super different from Ravnica’s signets, but the Cameos, like most colorless fixers in IPA, are uncommon.

I really like these discrepancies in power level and rarity as they make it more difficult for a player to just take the best card/best fixer in every pack.

The coolest fixing available in IPA, IMO, are the creatures that tap to change land types. When I first heard that Dream Thrush was great in IPA, I was very confused. After using it on my opponent’s upkeep to color-screw them for the first time, things made a lot more sense. Not only that, but changing a player’s Domain count at instant speed has quite a few implications.

Which leads me to the next reason that IPA is awesome…

Spell Modality

This is probably the most important aspect to me with regard to what makes a Magic card interesting.

I think that Geist of Saint Traft is extremely boring. It does exactly two things, and it does half of them poorly.

Snapcaster Mage, on the other hand, does approximately four billion things. You can tell a lot about the strength of a player by the way that they sling their Tiagos.

For this reason I really enjoy Kicker as a block mechanic. It constantly forces a player to assess when they should cast their spells and how greedy they can afford to be. Some of the spells are rather obvious, such as Ardent Soldier, but when and how to kick a Nightscape Battlemage can have a dramatic impact on a game.

The Disciples of IPA are another great example of spell modality.  This is not only because of their multiple abilities, but also because they can fill completely different roles in completely different decks.

Take Dega Disciple for example. The card is reasonable for a slower black/white deck, an aggressive red/white deck or a midrange style black/red/white deck. What’s really interesting is that the power level of Dega Disciple changes dramatically depending on which of these archetypes you’re playing, as it’s a much better aggressor than a defender.

Additionally, each Disciple makes a player choose what (if anything) they want to do with it every turn. I'm all about cards that involve a lot of decision making.

CANTRIPS!

Clearly the most satisfying card in Magic.

“Draw a card.”

Is there a more satisfying sentence in all of Magic? I mean, “Counter target spell” and “The land continues to burn after Obsidian Fireheart has left the battlefield” come to mind, but there’s just something about cantrips.

For starters, there are cards like Kavu Climber that have solid bodies (it was a different time) and then have the cantrip as a completely free card. Having the ability on a creature is even sweeter when you throw some Gating creatures like Steal Leaf Paladin into the mix.

Of course, more commonly cantrips appear on cards that are more marginal. In a couple of my drafts I was able to pick up a Lashknife Barrier really late into pack two. It’s fair to say that the card would probably be unplayable without the cantrip, but that’s irrelevant. So long as a card doesn’t have any unreasonable drawbacks (of which costing three is not one), adding a cantrip to it makes it playable.

This really opens up the possibilities for some very unique situations. For example, Stifle probably isn’t going to end up in any 40 card decks. Bind, however, can really surprise a player activating a Disciple.

Hobble is another interesting card. Pacifism effects are generally very good in limited, but Hobble might’ve been pretty loose without the cantrip considering all the Gating creatures. In a format without Gating, Hobble would probably be really, really good. Imagine having it in Rise of the Eldrazi, for example.  Very cool design in my opinion.

Don’t even get me started on how insane Repulse is.

Flagbearers

There aren’t exactly a lot of these, but I’m pretty much in love with Coalition Honor Guard.

Seriously, these guys are sweet. The obvious implication is that they mess with your opponents removal spells - they even invalidate damage-based ones to an extent. On a more interesting level they essentially blank your opponent’s removal spells and soak up all of their targeted Disciple abilities.

The only issue that I take with Flagbearers is that I never got to cast one in a physical game of Magic. It’s really satisfying watching an opponent tap and untap their mana when you control a Flagbearer. I can only imagine how much better it feels without them having an online client to tell them they can’t do what they want to do.

~

As I said earlier, drafting IPA on MTGO isn’t exactly a gold mine. However, if you’re in the market for a quality draft, then I couldn’t recommend it enough.

-Ryan Overturf

 

Jason’s Archives: The Audacity of Professional Jugglers/Cheaters, Reader Submissions & All the Decklist Analysis Your Prefrontal Cortex Can Handle

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Greetings, Speculators!

Everyone, I have a confession to make. I don't know how to juggle, not even a little. If you gave me two objects, I could probably do a crude approximation of tossing them back and forth before they collided or I dropped one. It takes some work to learn how to juggle and I simply haven't put in the time.

I bet a lot of you don't know how to juggle either. You're not lazy, or bad people -- you just never developed that skill. Bearing that in mind, would you feel comfortable demonstrating your juggling prowess on camera?

Of course it's not juggling I want to talk about, but savage, unadulterated and audacious cheating.

Juggling on Camera

Back to the illustration I've set up. You have to show everyone how well you can juggle despite never having practiced before. There are several onlookers and your opponent in the juggling contest has his hands at his side, watching you from a foot away. How conscious are you of the camera pointed at you? I'm guessing the camera is not something you can block out or ignore. This is because you're probably not a very good juggler.

Conversely, to cheat on camera, it would take supreme confidence in your cheating skills to ignore the fact that you were on camera.

So what kind of person would even attempt such a brazen act?

The People's Exhibit A

This weekend at the SCG Open in Detroit, in a match between Jon Elden and Samuel Friedman, a play occurred that lead to the disqualification and, if there is any justice, future suspension of Jon Elden. In response to a Stoneforge Mystic activation, Friedman cast Vendilion Clique to send a Batterskull from Elden's hand to the bottom of his library. A few minutes later, Elden played a Batterskull and Friedman conceded. Almost immediately a rumor began to circulate, both around the room and on Twitter, that Elden had cheated.

The video evidence is quite compelling.

Even though we have a video of the event, we know what time the incident occurred, and we can pause and rewind the video, the cheat is easy to miss. Samuel Friedman, his opponent, has taken a bit of flak for not noticing what Elden had done.

Would you have?

Beginning with the resolution of Vendilion Clique and continuing through the next game of the match, Elden constantly attempts to distract Friedman. Adjusting his library, moving his deck around, failing to untap his Stoneforge Mystic to draw Friedman's attention to the board: classic misdirection techniques.

All of this was designed to distract from the final maneuver. Eventually Elden activated a Polluted Delta to search his library, leaving the bottom card (the offending Batterskull, put on the bottom by the Vendilion Clique) on the table and scooping it into his hand. Having played a Vendilion Clique of his own, he knew Friedman had no answer in hand to the Batterskull and that it would likely win him the game.

So He Cheated. Big Deal. (And What Was That About Juggling?)

The point is, just as you would only be at ease juggling nine bowling pins and a goldfish bowl on camera if you had spent hours and hours practicing, Jon Elden cheated on camera as nonchalantly as if he were playing a game of go-fish.

In under five seconds, without hesitating, he executed a complicated series of sleights of hand so well that he nearly got away with it. On camera. With Adrian Sullivan and Patrick Chapin commenting. The amount of dexterity required to pull off this caper I would equate to juggling.

At one point, using one hand, he attached a Sword of Feast and Famine to his Stoneforge Mystic and attacked with it, while simultaneously using his other hand to prepare the bottom card of his library to get scooped up. He didn't seem nervous, he didn't seem hesitant, he just executed.

One only attains this level of confidence by remembering his ABCs:

There is a real cost to allowing someone like Elden, clearly the Houdini of cheating, to keep coming to events. Even if his opponents spend all of their time watching him like a hawk, they're not concentrating on their own game. His presence at events is a distraction and undermines the hard work others have done testing matchups and learning to sideboard.

While I may admire Jon Elden's skill, he should be using it to preform tabletop card tricks for tourists, not to cheat his way into the Top 8 of Magic events. For most players, Sleight of Hand and Misdirection are cards to play in decks, not skills to develop.

I imagine the DCI will deal with him in a manner similar to how they dealt with the Pele of cheating, Alex Bertoncini. Elden may not have Bertoncini's history, but he certainly has the chops.

Could This Happen to Me?

Just like the guy who French Fried when he was supposed to Pizza, a Magic player who spends the whole match trying to catch his opponent cheating is going to have a bad time. Anyone who gets cheated out of a match they should have won likewise isn't happy.

Wait, how many explores did you play this turn?

There are a few things you can do to make sure you aren't bamboozled (unless your opponent plays Bamboozle, in which case you're in good shape because your opponent is playing Bamboozle) without making your opponent feel like you're trying to visually undress them.

If your opponent is darting their hands around a lot, manipulating their library or graveyard excessively or putting their hand face down next to other cards, they may be trying to pull something. Watch out. If they do something shady, don't be afraid to call a judge.

A lot of cheaters get away with it for so long because they just apologize to their opponent and play it off as a mistake and their opponent feels awkward about calling a judge. Don't. That's what the judges are there for, and if the cheater tried it on you, he will try it on someone else.

That said, don't sacrifice fun. Most people aren't trying to cheat you. Don't be a sucker, but don't be a nanny either.

Archives Time

I have a lot of great stuff for you this week, and all of it was recommended by you, my readers! I decided to collect all of the reader submissions into a section I'm calling:

Reader Submissions

Our first bit of goodness comes to us from Quiet Speculation's own Douglas Linn who thought of all of you when he came across a collection of land liable to reduce all your creature types to Esperzoa -- that's how jelly you'll be.

Power 40 > Power 9

That's a full set of Beta duals in all of their glory. For more sickness and other brags, check out the accompanying forum post.

If you don't already have Insider Access, and therefore can't read Doug Linn's weekly contribution, I would strongly advise you to consider it. Anyone with Insider will tell you that Doug's called shots have made many of us lots of money and his articles and both entertaining and informative. Good looking out for us, Doug!



 

If you cast a Brainstorm with Solomon Grundy on it, you only draw one and have to put three back, so be careful.

A fan of the Archives sent me an e-mail to altjason17@gmail.com to make sure I saw this gem on Reddit, submitted by Riddlefox. Artist Christopher Rush altered and signed these beauties. Unfortunately, I can't afford them because I dumped gasoline on all of my money and lit it on fire for no reason.



 

Perfect for tinerking with your sideboard in class

Another fan hit me up on Twitter to show me these custom deckboxes by artist Matt Milam. A little google fu revealed this webpage with more information about Mr. Milam.

If you want to hit me up on Twitter or hear about my called shots and speculations for the future I can be found @JasonEAlt.

And that's the news from the internets this week. Keep the suggestions coming and I'll do another user suggestion roundup in a little while. Thanks to everyone who contributed!

Other Detroit Happenings

I opted to drive out for the day on Saturday and grind the binder a bit. I made a new friend when I traded him my entire collection for his entire collection over the course of two and a half hours. Taking up roughly half a table and drawing a crowd that rivaled some of the feature match tables, this trade made my weekend. I upgraded some of my cards and my trade partner was thrilled with what he got. It's always nice when everyone wins. Like I always say, every trade is a value trade.

But most people didn't go there to trade with me (I was busy doing that one trade anyway) and some of them did pretty well this weekend. Let's go to the deck lists!

Top 16 Standard Deck Lists

This seems like the right amount of Delver to me. Maybe it's some bizarre consequence of the 1950s feel of the Cobo Center or maybe it's the natural evolution of a format that's healthier than we thought, but the number of Delver decks in the top 16 was way under sixteen. It was three, in fact.

It would have been two if I hadn't spent an entire car ride back from Indianapolis convincing Ray Perez not to play RUG Pod. (To be fair, I did spend some of the car ride swerving so his head would bounce off the window when he fell asleep. If I can't sleep, no one sleeps.)

RUG Pod wouldn't have been a terrible choice, however, as Ray's teammate, up and comer Josh Glantzman, placed 16th with it. You may remember Josh from the Indianapolis Open last weekend, where he top-eighted both the Standard and Legacy portions.

Other notables include the UW Midrange deck, which has changed gears a bit. It added black and now it's going for the throat in more ways than one. Two copies in the Top 4 make this deck a force to be reckoned with, although its pilots may have had something to do with its success.

B/U Zombies also continues to be a worthwhile endeavor. It ultimately took home the trophy in the hands of Brad Eier, who managed to beat U/W Delver for all of the marbles (everyone else got money and boosters).

Bonus points go to Steven Kreuger whose "Infect Delver" deck managed a Top 16. Personally I would be too afraid my opponent would stabilize the game at 2 life and 9 poison, but Kreuger managed to win a lot more than he lost. Between Inkmoth Nexus and Blighted Agent as Invisible Stalker numbers five and six, this deck seems capable of switching gears and getting there with Silver-Inlaid Dagger or Runechanter's Pike in one or two swings.

Great job, all!

Top 16 Legacy Deck Lists

Do my eyes deceive me? Is this a ploy, a prank, a practical joke? Could the Lands deck really have won the Legacy Open?

Great Googily Moogily, it got there! Running an impressive zero copies of Griselbrand, this deck is a lot of fun for everyone but your opponent, everyone watching, and of course also you. Bobby Kovacs took down a field full of Elves and Maverick handily, bumming out a lot of people who took to Twitter to complain. If you can get people who weren't even at the event to complain about your deck, you definitely deserve a high five.

Having some experience with the deck myself, I can attest to it being worthwhile to learn. It genuinely tests skill and requires forethought to set up your win conditions. Only in Legacy can a forgotten deck like this come out of the woodwork and win first place in an event full of skilled players.

Elves was the only deck to put more than two copies in the Top 16, much to the chagrin of Delver enthusiasts everywhere. Maverick and RUG Delver had two Top 16 finishes and the rest were decks that appeared only once. In light of the recent clamoring for the banning of Griselbrand, he put an underwhelming zero copies of himself in the Top 16, pointing to how dynamic and adaptable a format Legacy can be.

I Got Nothing

Nothing else, that is. Have a great week and tune in next time for more of me, your fabulous archivist, and all the wonderful gems I'll dig up for you. If you run across something you'd like to see featured, hit me up on my e-mail or on twitter.

Until next time!

Insider: A Diverse Finance Article

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

As I’ve explored our forums here at Quiet Speculation, I’ve discovered we have a very diverse readership. Some players are returning to the game after years of being away and they are looking for how to reenter the game in a financially wise way. Others have been avid floor traders for years and they are interested in reading about potential speculation plays.

Others still are long time players and collectors, interested in the theory behind the invisible hand driving the MTG Market. Finally, others are looking to apply some theories to the MTGO market.

Personally, I am fascinated by each and every one of these perspectives. While I may dwell on some more than others in my articles, I do recognize this diversity exists. For this reason, I want to try something different this week.

Rather than cater to one type of MTG player in a deep article, potentially disappointing others, I will seek to write a précis of multiple topics to try and address most of my readers. We will see how this goes…

The Classic Collector

After exploring the value of Alpha cards a couple weeks ago, I began actively looking to acquire them at favorable pricing. The thinking was, with the recent jump in prices at major retailers, I may be able to identify some profitable opportunities.

After a couple weeks down this path, I’ve learned three tidbits of information – not enough for an entire article but certainly valuable to share. First, I have been able to find significant price discrepancy on Alpha rares between retailers and individuals. As a result, I have not had a difficult time negotiating with individuals on these cards. My target price for acquisition has been roughly 50% of SCG’s NM buy price, since all the cards I’ve bought have been at least SP.

On the other hand, commons and uncommons have been priced far more competitively amongst retailers. Channel Fireball has a dozen NM Alpha commons for $0.99 each, with a couple others at $1.49. Star City Games charges $1.99 for NM commons, but they sell played versions for just $0.99. On Uncommons, Star City Games does even better, charging just a couple bucks for played versions.

Individuals have frequently sought as high as twice the price of these retailers on their bulk commons/uncommons. Perhaps there is some emotional attachment driving this discrepancy – or perhaps people are convinced that any Alpha card is rare and merits at least a couple bucks. Either way, I’ve done almost all my bulk commons buying from CFB and I intend to buy some bulk uncommons from SCG.

Floor Trader

The latest bit of information we have on this front come from two sources – M13 spoilers and GP Yokahama.

On the M13 front, I must be honest – I do not see many obvious opportunities. I am fairly confident Sublime Archangel will be relevant. But as for its or other M13 card’s impact on Standard, I am left guessing.

The set seems a bit underpowered so far. Sure, there are ridiculous bombs like Omniscience and Diabolic Revelation, but their casting cost is far too prohibitive to see constructed play. And all the buzz about improving the Dream Halls deck may sound fun, but I honestly see the deck stuck in the world of Tier 1.5 or Tier 2.

Net, my recommendation is to stay the course – Innistrad Dual Lands are still a safe place to move into. Though, keep in mind there are a handful of M13 spoilers we haven’t seen yet, so it is always possible something is printed that will impact Innistrad Dual values. Restoration Angel is a powerful control card that I also see maintaining value for some time.

As for GP Yokahama, here’s a breakdown of the Top 8:

Pod Kiki-Jiki / Restoration Angel Combo – 4
Jund
B/W Tokens
Affinity
Mono Blue Fairies

Is any elaboration really needed here? The newly improved Pod deck now adds Restoration Angel and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker for additional combo shenanigans.

Key pick-ups are somewhat tricky to identify since the decks run such a diverse field of cards. That being said, the key combo pieces are safe bets, and I see even more reason for Restoration Angel to remain a buy. Search engines Birthing Pod and Chord of Calling are crucial enablers in the deck, and I see these as safe pick-ups as well. Especially Birthing Pod, which goes for just a couple bucks as it nears rotation out of Standard. (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Getting Back Into Magic

I’ve seen in the forums recently that a few QS subscribers are looking to re-enter into Magic and try to trade and speculate in order to keep the hobby as close to “free” as possible. I love this approach as this is the primary reason I speculate and trade. Many hobbies, such as golf or art, are expensive to maintain and very difficult to make bank in. With Magic, one does not even have to be a good player to profit – all it takes is some research and discipline.

I take that back – there is one sacrifice I have had to make in order to drive profitability in Magic, and it is a piece of information I believe may be valuable to share. In order to truly profit maximally from Magic: The Gathering speculation, one has to emotionally detach from most of their cards.

When I am emotionally attached to a card, I value it incorrectly. The result is small value loss in my collection. While an occasional blip to work on a personal collection is okay, the occurrence needs to be minimal. This has been a difficult lesson for me at times, but my mistakes have made me savvier. I have traded for Angels I need at prices far above retail, and I have even occasionally preordered the latest and greatest [card Linvala, Keeper of Silence]Angel[/card] card – and most of you know how costly it is to pre-order cards.

In order to maintain the proper discipline, I’ve learned a key strategy: when being asked to trade away or sell a particular card that I may be emotionally attached to, I always rationalize my decision based on the fact that I can always acquire that same card again. And if I have a shot at buying back the card at a discount, I’ve then turned a profit.

I actually recently did this with my set of Noble Hierarchs. I fear a reprint of the mana accelerator, yet I want to keep my set for Legacy. Still, I overcame emotion and sold my set for $62 since I wanted to put profitability first. A reprint still has not been revealed, and I recently repurchased a set from eBay at $54.50, in essence profiting $7.50 while keeping my set. And I am in the midst of selling this set yet again, still in anticipation of a potential price drop! (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Net, make sure you keep the majority of your cards on the trading block, since you won’t always know when a profitable opportunity will arrive.

The MTGO Speculator

I have recently seen a call for more MTGO content. I have a confession to make: I don’t have a MTGO account. The concept of starting up a second collection is daunting to me and after playing paper Magic for fifteen years, I am not motivated to start from scratch.

That being said, I have come to understand there are some great opportunities for profit in the digital world. The possibility for fast-paced market adjustments combined with the absence of shipping costs is indicative of opportunity. But rather than make baseless recommendations, I would like to first appeal to my readers:

Is MTGO worth it?

I once tweeted this question and I received numerous responses with the majority pointing towards the negative. Since then I have resisted signing up.

Yet it seems inevitable that I join. I frequently find myself desperate for a game of Magic while being confined to home caring for an infant. A chance to play a quick game or even a quick draft could be worth the efforts of starting up a new collection. This especially becomes attractive if I can profit in the process.

Master of None

This article is a bit disjointed and I hope there was at least some value to my diverse readers. In an attempt to cover multiple topics, I haven't dove deeply enough into any one topic.

Rest assured this may be a one-shot occurrence as I attempt to broaden my topics to appease a larger audience. If it worked, please let me know and perhaps I will repeat this approach in the future. If, on the other hand, you feel value was lost due to the sacrificing of depth to enable breadth of content, please indicate this to me as well.

Next week, perhaps there will be some more impactful M13 spoilers to review. Or perhaps I will uncover some other price discrepancies to take advantage of. Or perhaps there will be some additional tournament results to review. Until then, thank you for reading.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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