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Unlocked: Why You Should Be Selling More Cards

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In MTG Finance and collecting in general, there are really only a handful of meaningful options that one can exercise at any given time:

  • You can buy an item(s).
  • You can trade an item(s) for other item(s).
  • You can hold onto an item(s) you believe will be more valuable at a later date.
  • You can sell an item.

Today's article is about the last action on the list, selling an item, and why the average collector should be more diligent about utilizing this option more often.

But Selling is a Hassle...

Let's cut to the chase. Selling cards is by far the least fun, most difficult, and most tedious of the possible things one can do with one's cards. If you consider the other options – keeping all of one's cards, buying new cards, or trading cards – the prospect of going online and actually selling cards is the one that most feels like work.

Plainly stated, the reason it feels like work is that it is work. With that being said, the work of selling cards isn't actually that difficult, it just takes a little bit of time, energy and effort.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Concerted Effort

There are plenty of fantastic resources that exists to sell cards in our modern, internet-driven world. eEBay, social media and large online marketplaces are all tools available for turning cards into cash.

The number-one reason I believe that players don't sell as frequently as they should revolves around the inconvenience and investment of time and energy that goes into the process: listing items, processing sales and mailing items.

To be fair, players sell cards all the time. Go to any Grand Prix and observe the endless lines of players at retail booths waiting to sell their cards to vendors. Keep in mind, these players are waiting to sell their cards for roughly half of what they could have gotten if they had done it themselves from home.

If that analogy doesn't make it clear that a relationship between "hassle and convenience" is in play, I don't know what does!

Cash Is So Much More Useful Than Cards

You can't sleeve up $100 dollars bills and play, right? Wrong. Cash is whatever you want it to be whenever you need it to be something (in most cases).

There is clearly a difference between random cards one owns and the cards they have pinpointed as investments. I'd much rather have the Beta Power 9 I bought eight years ago than the money I spent on them in my bank account. Yet for every great investment of funds, there are probably ten cards I own that I missed the window to sell on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Time Walk

And honestly, most of these missed opportunities have more to do with being lazy and not feeling like listing the card, as opposed to not understanding when was a good time to get out of the card. I think this is especially true of Standard and Modern cards. In a world where reprints influence and dominate what happens in the marketplace, there are not a ton of good reasons to be holding onto these types of cards indefinitely. I'm not advising you to liquidate your entire collection. Obviously, it makes sense to own the cards you frequently, or are likely, to play with.

However, cards that you don't really play with that you are not very likely to play with in the future, really are prime cards to ship out while they still have the semblance of value.

I've been going back through my "cards I want to play" binders for Modern lately and being realistic about whether or not cards I "own" are things that I'd ever play with again. I mean, how likely am I to ever play Elspeth, Knight-Errant ever again? Probably zero percent, since better cards exist now. Why not sell it now while it has some value, as opposed to waiting until it gets reprinted another time and has no value?

Justify the Effort

The biggest way that players justify not spending the time to actually list and sell their own cards directly to the consumer is that it simply takes up too much time. The key is to justify why it is worth time.

Imagine the next time you sell a big stack of cards at a dealer booth. Say you sell about 100 cards and get $250 cash at the booth. Now imagine that, if you had simply spent a couple of hours listing and selling those cards, you would have come away with closer to $500.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cruel Bargain

Maybe you are a CEO of a Fortune 500 company and your time is worth more than that, but that seems unlikely since you waited in line to sell cards to a dealer. The hourly rate of selling cards online rather than to buylists can be very much worth the effort. The other key is that you can do it in your free time when you'd basically have nothing else to do; it's a great way to turn downtime into additional value.

Personally, I like to sit down and list a few items while I'm on the couch watching Netflix in the evening. I take a playmat and set it on the coffee table and snap a few pictures of the cards I'm looking to sell on my phone. Then I simply upload those pictures to whatever profile I'm selling from. It barely even disrupts my viewing and when done even a couple of times a week creates tons of possible sales.

I also understand that running back and forth to the post office is a hassle. Simply include in your seller profile or description that you take all items to the post office on Tuesdays, and so no matter when the item is purchased that it will ship the following Tuesday. Tuesday morning rolls around and I simply package up everything that sold that week, put it into envelopes, and ship it. Easy earned money.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar Trader

Selling cards in the retail marketplace is one of the most important ways to make money from investing in Magic. In these articles, when I discuss "selling into a spike," this is exactly what I'm talking about. When I draft some stupid new planeswalker that is selling for $30, I want to get that money and reinvest it into Old School Cards.

Sure, it's nice to try and trade bloated Standard cards for sweet Arabian Nights cards, but realistically, who is going to make this trade with you? It's not like there are tons of random players walking around with Reserved List cards saying, "Will somebody please take these off my hands!? I'm looking for Standard cards that are 100-percent to be worth nothing in three months."

You could sell these cards to dealers and take a small trade bonus and put that credit toward sweet investment cards. If that is the case? Why not just sell them yourself, get a bigger return, and then shop the entire internet for the best price on the card you actually want (rather than paying top dollar from an on-site dealer).

QS is a finance website, so I understand many of the readers are probably pretty adept at doing this. However, if you are not doing this and looking for a way to up your collecting game, I think that being more proactive at actually selling cards at the right times is an absolute must!

How do you streamline your selling processes to minimize time spent? How do you maximize your profits? Share in the comments below.

Video Series with Ryland: UR Delver

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Good ol' Delver of Secrets. For as long as this little Human/Insect has been around, people have been trying to make him work in Modern. The format has reasonable interactive spells alongside a decent supporting cast of threats, but one problem has persisted: the lack of good cantrips. A tight banned list prohibiting the use of Ponder, Preordain, and Gitaxian Probe makes it hard to expect Delver to flip on a consistent basis.

Not only do solid cantrips let you occasionally set up a Delver flip, but they also allow you to artificially lower your land count and threat count, all without losing consistency. Delver requires you to play a high density of instants and sorceries to even hope to flip him. Consider today's deck as an example: with our land count (relatively high for a Delver deck) and our creature count (relatively high for a Delver deck) we are only about 30-35% at any given moment to flip a Delver. I don't love those odds.

After all this naysaying you may be wondering why I would even consider virtually sleeving up the little Wizard at all! Well, enter Wizard's Lightning! Now we have an incentive to build a deck around! Playing seven or eight copies of Lightning Bolt with four copies of Snapcaster Mage is nothing to scoff at. In fact, Delver isn't the star of the show here at all; he's merely a weak enabler of a much more exciting strategy.

The real innovation in this archetype is the Faerie package. We've borrowed a bit from Pauper to make it happen, but Spellstutter Sprite enters the Modern field both as a reasonable threat/piece of interaction on curve and an enabler for Wizard's Lightning. Vendilion Clique does all kinds of work here; it's a Faerie enabler for Sprite, a Wizard enabler for Wizard's Lightning, a good piece of interaction, and a solid threat. No matter what axis we're looking to fight on, it's pretty likely Clique does the job.

Thus far, I've been way more impressed with this deck than I would have expected. It plays pretty smoothly and its subthemes are supported well enough that you rarely have trouble casting Wizard's Lightning, countering something reasonable with Sprite, or finding a threat to beat down with. Yes, it would be better if there were some more solid cantrips to include; and yes, Delver doesn't flip incredibly consistently. However, even with all that, the deck runs well and can end games quickly.

Continuing the discussion of cantrips, I've gone back and forth on Serum Visions in the list. The original list that I saw on Twitter posted by Jeff Hoogland had no cantrips at all, but that felt a little too clunky for my tastes, and required the deck to play too many lands. I've also tried lists with Opt in the place of Visions. When you boil it all down, the Opt vs. Visions debate is centered around one thing: whether you more frequently flip your Delvers because of the deck manipulation offered by Visions or more frequently need to hold up interaction alongside Opt. I've found that I am rarely using Serum Visions to set up Delver and frequently wanting to wait on my cantrips so I can hold up Mana Leaks, Remands, and Spellstutter Sprites. As such, I am more likely to continue playing Opt in the future.

The deck could certainly still use some tuning, but I think it could have some staying power. It takes a lot for me to register a Delver of Secrets in Modern, but I could see myself doing so with this new innovation. I hope you enjoy the matches as usual, and I'm interested to hear what kind of content you'd like to see moving forward so I can continue to evolve and improve my videos. Let me know what you would like to see! If you want similar content, check out my Twitch channel for some more live Modern.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL261kJ_cAQC-Vph-MX7fXRnquFIuOXyn0]

UR Delver, by Ryland Taliaferro

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Spellstutter Sprite
3 Vendilion Clique

Instants

1 Burst Lightning
1 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
4 Remand
3 Wizard's Lightning
2 Vapor Snag

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

2 Faerie Conclave
3 Island
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
4 Mutavault
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

3 Abrade
3 Damping Sphere
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dismember
1 Dispel
2 Izzet Staticaster
2 Negate
2 Roast

Unlocked: Can Magic Investing Scale?

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I truly love the QS Insider Discord. I’m not just saying that to drive subscriptions, either. I genuinely appreciate the discussions, ideas, and insights that private chat room brings to my daily MTG finance analyses.

This past week was no exception.

Fellow insider Tarkan and I found ourselves engaging in a lively debate regarding the scalability of Magic finance. He seemed to be of the opinion that there was ample “market capitalization” in cards, citing Dan Bock’s recent Facebook post regarding the Reserved List. (I’m paraphrasing, so hopefully he’ll chime in and correct me if I misspeak).

I, on the other hand, believe that someone with seven figures of capital would have a very difficult time efficiently getting into and out of the MTG market.

But what do we mean by “market cap”? What did Dan Bock specifically say? Does the math he performed in that Facebook post hold up? This week I’m going to do a deeper dive into this debate and further flesh out my stance—that MTG finance is self-limited due to its scale relative to other asset classes. If that doesn’t interest you, feel free to skip towards the latter part of the article, where I’ll dwell briefly on some more actionable info for the week!

Some Background

Twitter has been abuzz lately about the Reserved List. Some things never change. We should update the old saying to say, “Nothing is certain in life except for death, taxes, and disagreements over the Reserved List.” I don’t know if Dan Bock was responding to any particular discussions or comments, or if he found inspiration elsewhere. Regardless of the catalyst, he published an inspiring (to me) piece about the Reserved List. It’s long, but I’d highly recommend everyone read through it.

Within his post, he did some math: multiply the average value of the top 289 Reserved List cards by their print runs and you get over $3.5 billion. That’s billion with a “b." I don’t trust other people’s math, so I decided to do a quick litmus test on the calculations below.

Underground Sea: Market price $587.09 * 289,000 Revised print run = $169,669,010.
Black Lotus: Market price $3995.50 * $18,500 Unlimited print run = $73,916,750
Mishra's Workshop: Market price $1,500.00 * 31,000 Antiquities print run = $46,500,00

Okay, I don’t have to do any more math than this—I firmly believe in Dan’s numbers. I went through three cards and am already approaching $300M. I’m sure adding the other dual lands and Power 9 from Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and Revised, and I’d get to that $3.5B number easily.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Dan’s article goes on to explain many factors and considerations regarding the Reserved List. But remember: this article isn’t a Reserved List article. It’s about the scalability of Magic investing. Tarkan’s argument was that the market cap of MTG singles is sufficiently high to enable a millionaire’s investing in Magic singles. And in a vacuum, he’d be right.

But let me provide some context.

Let’s Play Pretend

Imagine a wealthy individual—for example the youngest billionaire Kylie Jenner—suddenly decided they were tired of the stock market’s volatility and uncertainty, and that they wanted to invest in a non-traditional asset. Perhaps Kylie saw Eric Froehlich’s recent interview where he mentioned Magic, and she decided that would be a worthwhile investment idea. She starts by seeking out “Black Lotus” since that card was specifically mentioned in the poker article.

Kylie sits down at her computer, opens up Google, and searches, “buy Magic: the Gathering cards.” The first non-advertisement to show up is Card Kingdom, followed by TCGplayer. So she visits Card Kingdom, searches “Black Lotus”, and gets the following results:

Okay, so much for investing deeply on Black Lotus. Next she tries Underground Sea. There are over 300,000 in existence across its multiple printings, so maybe she can pick up a few hundred of them.

There’s 1 EX Alpha copy in stock for $8000. That’s a start! There’s also $13,695 worth of Revised copies in stock. So she can spend a $21,695 in Underground Seas from Card Kingdom. If Kylie wanted to invest $5 million in Magic, this purchase would get her 0.43% of the way there.

She could go to TCGplayer next and get more copies. But would the Damaged and HP copies be worth investing in? Probably not. That nets 55 sellers, which still equates to a solid $36,000 worth of Revised copies. But this isn’t the net buy-in. Because only the first couple dozen copies are $600. If someone wants to buy more, they have to pay $700 for some copies. And $800. And $900. Is it wise to pay 50% more to keep sinking money into Underground Sea? Perhaps not.

This is the first issue I have with trying to scale into Magic. By spending a modest amount of money in your investment, you can end up manipulating the price quite a bit. If you want to buy $1 million worth of a single stock, you can choose from hundreds, if not thousands, of options where your purchase would barely move the needle of that stock’s price. That opportunity doesn’t exist in Magic. Spending $1 million on a card like Underground Sea would cause its price to go from $600 to $1000 overnight. To make such a large investment would require your willingness to keep buying as the price ratchets higher and higher.

You could of course spread your money across hundreds of different Magic cards, but then you run into a different issue: effort. If you’re a wealthy individual looking to invest in something, do you really want to have to handle hundreds or thousands of individual pieces?

Even if you decided to clean out Underground Sea, you’re stuck holding nearly 100 copies of the card and that would only soak up about 1% of your planned $5 million investment. You’d have to repeat this type of buy 99 more times to get into a ballpark where the investment is sizable enough to be worthwhile. Are there even 99 more cards worth targeting?

Then there’s the issue of selling. Stores may react to the newfound demand and raise prices. You may be able to unload some copies at a higher price point. But the demand for $1,000 Underground Seas is going to be less than the demand at $600. That’s simple supply and demand. You can’t possibly believe you’ll be able to sell 100 copies of that card at once. Not without tanking its price, anyways. You’re going to have to bleed these out over the course of many months or even years. That’s a lot of individual transactions to keep track of.

More Established Assets

Let’s face it: Magic is tiny. $3.5 billion sounds like a huge market cap, but it doesn’t hold a candle to other, more established collectible investments. If you want to sink $5 million into comic books, for example, you could do so by purchasing a relatively small pile of comics. You could start here, buying this $615,000 comic. There are a couple dozen options that are over $100,000 to choose from. And some of the higher grades of the iconic comics can fetch seven figures by themselves.

Sure, there is a Magic eBay listing for a $2.2 million card. But do you trust that kind of money from a seller with 119 feedback named “dumb_mother”? That listing aside, there are only four other Magic listings in the six-figure range. The tiny number gets me wondering, though, if any of those listings are actually worth that much. Probably not. At least, not yet.

Comics have been around much longer than Magic, and therefore have a higher pedigree. The same can be said for baseball cards, which can often sell for six figures. Or old coins (a 1793 Chain Large Cent in nice condition can sell for over $100,000 and as high as $450,000). Or artwork. Or rare pieces of jewelry. Or antique furniture.

All of these investment ideas scale fairly easily. Purchasing a few pieces can be a convenient way of investing millions into a beloved hobby. Then after some number of years when its time to sell, the process of liquidating those few assets should not be too cumbersome.

Magic just isn’t there yet.

Looking Ahead

Magic isn’t there yet, but it could get there one day. If the card game is around another 25 years, I could certainly see Alpha Black Lotus selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars. In fact I could see Alpha anything selling for quite a bit. The print run of that set is so unbelievably small.

As long as Hasbro and Wizards of the Coast don’t mess things up too badly, Magic will gradually become a more realistic investment vehicle. For now, it’s a great place to park some money for a regular Joe/Jane. But I don’t think high-end investors with millions to put to work should consider moving in on Magic. Not yet, anyways.

Wrapping It Up and Some Ideas

I promised some actionable ideas, and I’m not one to back out on a promise.

More and more Rerserved List cards from 1996 and 1997 are getting targeted. It may be wise to start grabbing a few copies of anything with under 100 sellers remaining on TCGplayer, just to get some exposure in case they spike. Jungle Patrol is getting thin in stock. Catacomb Dragon is the top selling rare from Mirage.

Elkin Lair is just now spiking (I play that card in my casual Commander deck). From Weatherlight, Tolarian Serpent is starting to move. Heart of Bogardan looks especially fragile.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heart of Bogardan

Again, I don’t advocate buying out the market on these. But next time you’re making your TCGplayer purchase, you may want to add a couple of these just to have in case. I know I keep coming back to the Reserved List well over and over again, but this is a space that continues to see action nonstop. It would be foolish to completely ignore the trends.

Lastly, I still think there’s an opportunity with Unlimited rares. I’ve been picking some up from Card Kingdom in Near Mint condition simply because ABU Games pays more on their buylist. There’s a large disconnect between these two vendors, and I’m inclined to believe the stock on NM Unlimited rares will run out before ABU Games feels enough pressure to drop their buy prices. Even garbage like Purelace, Deathlace, and Web are selling out on TCGplayer lately. Perhaps people are picking these up for easy arbitrage to ABU’s buylist.

(Click to expand.)

These are all ideal targets because they have great long-term investment potential while also offering minimal downside risk due to ABU’s aggressive buylist. While Alpha and Beta cards start to run away from us, Unlimited becomes the next logical target. They aren’t worth your time if you have millions to invest, but for small time folks like us they seem perfectly positioned.

Sigbits

  • Buylists at Card Kingdom have really cooled off lately, I noticed. Duals, Legacy cards, and even Old School stuff has gradually dropped back down as Card Kingdom finally gets some stock of these popular cards. I noticed In the Eye of Chaos’s buy price has remained strong, however, at $100. This collectible card seems to be bucking the trend.
  • Thanks to the presence of an enchantment-themed Commander 2018 deck, Serra's Sanctum has heated up (again). I used some store credit to get a copy from Card Kingdom for $120. Now CK pays $85 on their buylist, a large jump from last week. I think this number will hit $100 by the time the new Commander set releases.
  • Some Old School cards have remained robust at Card Kingdom despite the summer slowdown. For example All Hallow's Eve’s buy price remains strong at $315. Juzám Djinn’s buy price is back into four figures again, at $1050. Perhaps ABU’s aggressive numbers on Arabian Nights cards drove Card Kingdom to follow suit a bit?

QS Cast #102: Spireson and Sunseeker

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Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Core 2019/Commander 2018
  • Insider Questions
  • Interests – Cast Picks

Cards We Discussed


 

*This Podcast was recorded on 7/12/2018

Colorless Matchup Guide: Mardu and Ironworks

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Mardu Pyromancer and Ironworks are wildly successful Modern decks right now, and for good reason: the former attacks from multiple angles while making excellent use of the format's premier abusable resource, the graveyard; the latter is an artifact-based combo deck that's at once tricky to disrupt and unintuitive to play against for most opponents. So it's no surprise that they each had fantastic showings at GP Sao Paulo last weekend. Mardu was the most-played Day 1 deck, maintaining its shares going into Day 2 and eventually winning the event. Ironworks at least grazed the trophy, and enjoyed by far the strongest conversion rate between days.

Both strategies are fine pairings for Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, but our upper hand becomes all the more decisive when pilots know what they're doing. As with most matchups, these two feature a good deal of nuance—2,000 words worth, to be exact! This article provides a comprehensive guide on beating those decks, neither of which was covered in my Sideboarding Mini-Primer.

We'll kick things off with my latest list:

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Matter Reshaper

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Scavenger Grounds
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Gut Shot
1 Gemstone Caverns

Two cards have changed since my last update to the deck, most notably Smuggler's Copter doubling up over a Blinkmoth Nexus. Both creatures-to-be fly, but Copter pulls extra weight against decks that gum up the board. I've wondered since introducing Zhalfirin Void about the possibility of cutting the 23rd land from Colorless, but until recently, wanted nothing in its place; since implementing it, though, I've almost always been happy to have the second Copter. As I prefer being strapped for mana anyway, I don't mind waiting a little longer to find lands.

I'm also back on the fourth Ratchet Bomb in the sideboard to have more outs to Ensnaring Bridge. Bomb replaces a Spatial Contortion, so our Humans and Affinity matchups remain relatively unchanged with this switch.

Mardu Pyromancer

Mardu Pyromancer, by Jose Luis Echeverria Pardes (1st, GP Sao Paulo)

Creatures

4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Young Pyromancer

Planeswalkers

1 Liliana of the Veil

Enchantments

2 Blood Moon

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
1 Manamorphose
1 Terminate
3 Kolaghan's Command

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
2 Collective Brutality
1 Dreadbore
4 Lingering Souls

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Marsh Flats
2 Blood Crypt
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Mountain
2 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Collective Brutality
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
3 Molten Rain
1 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Wear // Tear

Game 1

Our Game 1 mission is to not get run over by Young Pyromancer. A timely Dismember should do the trick, but once the little guy gets out of control, it can spell lights out. Lingering Souls can also hassle us pre-board by walling unaltered Mimics and racing in the air.

That being said, we are not in a horrible position before sideboarding. Even though it's further up the control end of the spectrum, Mardu Pyromancer is still a midrange deck, and one that's even easier to beat pre-board than Jund: no hulking Goyfs or tempo-netting Bloodbraid Elves here. Eternal Scourge and Reality Smasher are our real killers pre-side, with the former sapping enemy removal and the latter shutting the door. Mardu tends to play precious few cards that can answer Smasher, and since we aggressively mulligan for Eldrazi Temple in the dark, we are likely to rush them out faster than opponents are equipped for. Matter Reshaper provides the best possible stepping stone into these unanswerable plays.

Chalice of the Void is an interesting spell in this matchup. Rushing it out with Simian Spirit Guide is asking to be two-for-oned by Kolaghan's Command; the Ape is better saved for animating a manland in response to Liliana after tapping out for a fatty. Rather, Chalice's main function is to protect those manlands—and Eldrazi Mimic—from Mardu's heaps of one-mana removal. Blocking Fatal Push for Thought-Knot Seer doesn't hurt, either. Thanks to Command, Chalice doesn't yield a permanent solution, and so should be used as a tempo-gaining tool to push through damage while we can and extract value from our small creatures.

Scavenger Grounds is mainboard graveyard hate that at its best delays an awaiting Bedlam Reveler while eating a flashback spell, and manlands protect Smasher from Liliana of the Veil. Overall, we're fine with all our lands becoming Mountains.

Sideboarding

-4 Eldrazi Mimic
-4 Simian Spirit Guide
-4 Chalice of the Void
-2 Smuggler's Copter

+4 Relic of Progenitus
+1 Surgical Extraction
+4 Ratchet Bomb
+2 Spatial Contortion
+2 Gut Shot
+1 Gemstone Caverns (play and draw)

Our Bolt and Push targets all come out, as well as the Chalices that protect them. Relic heavily disrupts the Bedlam Reveler package and Lingering Souls. Guide is passable thanks to Blood Moon (we can cast it in a pinch), but mostly unexciting post-board, especially compared to what we can bring in. These games go long, and there's no compelling reason to sink extra resources into something that might immediately die.

Ratchet Bomb plays triple duty here by removing threats, lock pieces, and even swaths of tokens before an alpha-strike. The other removal spells enter, too, to help with Young Pyromancer. We're hungrier for mana with Relic-Scourge in the equation, so Gemstone Caverns comes in on both the play and draw to support us on that front.

Post-Board

After siding, most builds of Mardu have a tough time winning. They can cheese games with Blood Moon, although our six colorless sources, many generic-costed creatures, and Bombs render that plan optimistic at best; they can also manage to dodge our removal and stick Pyromancer. Bedlam Reveler is Mardu's scariest threat post-board, even though it doesn't usually resolve until turn six or seven thanks to Relic. The Horror draws them into their good cards, and there's little we can do to stop them from reaching the game stage where hard-casting is a reality. 3/4 also blocks Scourge, and with prowess threatens even Smasher, so we keep Dismember on call.

Mardu also has access to some powerful haymakers, although Jose didn't include any in his GP-winning 75. The two we struggle against most are Hazoret the Fervent and Ensnaring Bridge. In want of Dismember, Hazoret can terrorize the game state, pinging us for reach damage and forcing chump blocks or walling our creatures as Mardu solidifies its position. Drawing the Phyrexian removal spell a couple turns later is often too late thanks to the pressure Hazoret applies on its own.

Ensnaring Bridge, though, is the deck's best card when they choose to run it. Our only out to the artifact is to find, tick up, and then crack Ratchet Bomb on 3. Mardu players hip to this plan will let us tick up Bomb for a couple of turns and then zap it with Kolaghan's Command or Wear; holding Bomb in hand isn't totally safe, either, since there it becomes vulnerable to targeted discard. The best way to proceed in this scenario is to immediately slam any Bomb found, as Mardu has more discard than artifact hate (assuming they kept in their discard, of course; otherwise, reverse course and wait for Seer to clear the path for Bomb). Build a board while ticking up Bomb and destroy the Bridge either right before attacking for lethal or right after resolving Seer, thus denying opponents the chance to just play another one.

Takeaways

Bridge makes this matchup more of a fair fight for Mardu, which either way struggles to ever actually kill us as we accumulate a board presence. It's great news for us that the deck seems to be trimming it. Mardu is correct to keep its targeted discard to deal with our crucial artifacts, but many players side it out.

Ironworks

Ironworks, by Sebastian Pozzo (3rd, GP Sao Paulo)

Creatures

4 Scrap Trawler
2 Myr Retriever

Artifacts

4 Mox Opal
4 Chromatic Star
3 Chromatic Sphere
4 Ichor Wellspring
4 Terrarion
4 Mind Stone
4 Krark-Clan Ironworks
3 Engineered Explosives
2 Pyrite Spellbomb

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Grove of the Burnwillows
2 Aether Hub
3 Inventors' Fair
3 Buried Ruin
2 Forest

Sideboard

4 Nature's Claim
3 Guttural Response
1 Beast Within
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Ghirapur Aether Grid
2 Lightning Bolt
1 Galvanic Blast
1 Pyroclasm

Game 1

This game is less of an arms race than the first in a match against, say, Tron or Valakut, reason being that we've got more relevant interaction here: Dismember answers Scrap Trawler, Chalice on 1 shuts off chunks of the Ironworks engine as well as Ancient Stirrings, and Scavenger Grounds can end their combo turn cold while fizzling a targeting trigger. On top of all that, we're still a Temple-Mimic-Guide-Seer deck.

Engineered Explosives on 0 (and cast for any amount of colorless mana) will take our Chalices off the table and leave Ironworks free to cantrip away, so no more than a single Chalice should be out at one time. As against Storm, Guide shines when it's cracking our on-board interaction (in this case, Grounds) when opponents don't see it coming, a fact that remains true post-board.

Sideboarding

-4 Matter Reshaper
-2 Smuggler's Copter

+4 Relic of Progenitus
+1 Surgical Extraction
+1 Gemstone Caverns (play and draw)

This Ironworks plan is much leaner than the Mardu one. There's still some excellent hate to board in over useless card advantage generator Matter Reshaper.

Smuggler's Copter also gets the axe, even though it can dig into important cards without fearing removal; sans Reshaper, our pilot density drops, and crewing becomes more difficult. We really don't want to be stuck with a lone Copter against combo, preferring an actual creature to clock them while we disrupt. Reality Smasher would be the next-easiest cut, but its ability to close the window quickly once we land a lock piece is too important here to pass up.

Caverns always comes in, too, although going to 23 lands on the play is far rarer overall than this guide lets on. We don't want to spend our scries digging for lands against combo decks; those extra looks are too valuable for finding hate. Opening more lands lets us keep hate-heavy hands, and having additional lands in the deck helps us keep riskier, high-upside Temple draws. Finally, making a land drop each turn helps us commit to the board while holding up mana to pop Relic and Scavenger Grounds, or Dismember on a Trawler.

Post-Board

Ironworks has a very hard time going off against us after siding; we keep all but our clunkiest attackers and bring in a hearty helping of hate. In most games, we slam Relic, make some attacks, and that's that. To get around an end-step Nature's Claim, committing multiple hosers to the board at once is optimal.

But Ironworks isn't totally out of tricks. For one, they can find Wurmcoil Engine, a card we have a very hard time beating. We can slug through a single Wurmcoil pretty much every game, but when Buried Ruin recurs it, we're in deep trouble. Relic and Grounds get in the way of that plan, but not without leaving us bare to the combo. The best way to beat Wurmcoil out of this deck is to strip it with Thought-Knot or just race; alternatively, creating a big board and pushing through with a Dismember does it.

Should Ironworks bring it in, Ghirapur Aether Grid is also quite annoying for Colorless, as it keeps Eternal Scourge off the table forever and prevents us from getting in with Mimic or manlands.

Takeaways

Of Modern's midrange decks, I feel Colorless Eldrazi Stompy has one of the more enviable Ironworks matchups. Barring Wurmcoil Engine, and of course improper disruption timing, there isn't too much to worry about here. Jamming the matchup with an Ironworks aficionado is an effective way to learn the many timing windows for disrupting the deck.

Always Tinker

The sideboard plans in this guide are not set in stone. I encourage you to try different configurations and adapt your decisions based on an opponent's play, as I often do. Rather, the plans presented in this article are examples that aim to give readers a sense of the important and expendable cards in each matchup.

This article marks my first in the Colorless Matchup Guide series, and I've never written such a comprehensive matchup guide before. Would you like to see similar content? What matchups are you wondering about? Let me know in the comments!

Insider: The Curious Case of Goblin Chainwhirler

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Welcome back, readers!

Today's article title is pretty spot on. We will be looking at the curious case of Goblin Chainwhirler.

Obviously my years of MS Paint expertise has come in handy here, so if you can't tell, that's not actually Brad Pitt.

All joking aside, the reason for this article is that the updated banned and restricted list came out when I was on my honeymoon cruise (and had almost no internet), on July 2nd.

I was really surprised to see Legacy bans (let alone two of them), but I figured the card that dodged the biggest bullet in Standard—Goblin Chainwhirler—would see a price spike.

But it didn't. If we look at the retail price over time we see that it dropped prior to the B&R announcement (for fear of it getting banned), but no rebound once it cleared that hurdle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Chainwhirler

We have seen a dramatic shift in the speed of marketplace correction in the world of MTG finance in the past few years. It used to be that you could pick up cards that were recently unbanned at the old price a day after—now you have an hour or two if you're lucky. So why, six days after this card dodged a banning, is it still trending downward?

Today I'd like to explore some possible answers to that question.

Did the Metagame Shift?

According to MTGTop8.com, we still have Mono-Red and Rakdos Aggro accounting for a full 32% of the metagame. This would imply that red-based aggro strategies are still very prevalent, accounting for the #1 and #3 spot for most played decks online. We have very limited data on major events that have occurred since the B&R announcement. However, as there were no changes to Standard, it seems fair to expect the pre-B&R metagame to mirror the post B&R metagame.

Has the Card Fallen Out of Favor?

Chainwhirler takes up the #4 spot of most played cards, at a full 32%—you are likely to face an opponent playing it almost one out of every three matches you play in. Just as importantly, after reviewing various decklists, I can say it's played as a four-of almost all the time.

So with clear "no's" to these first two questions, why is the price still trending downward?

A Fear of Future Banning?

A recent article on TCGplayer discussed the dangers of Goblin Chainwhirler in Standard. I discussed the card's power with friends whose opinions I value a fair amount, and they also expected it to be banned. Their argument was that if WotC felt Rampaging Ferocidon was too powerful for Standard because it hosed token strategies (which is pretty much the entire Vampire tribe from Ixalan block), than surely a card that is better overall and arguably more powerful against those strategies would be as well. I think that's a very fair argument to make.

While most would agree that Goblin Chainwhirler is a better card than Rampaging Ferocidon in terms of overall power level, the key difference is the mana cost. Chainwhirler (and the whole cycle of creatures with triple-mono-colored mana costs) are extremely difficult to splash. You can see this is the composition of the Rakdos Aggro, which tends to play zero Swamps and 10-12x Mountains.

When you play mostly mono-colored decks (even with the splash), you are limited in solution cards to problems you might face. The black splash allows for some non-burn-based removal in Unlicensed Disintegration, as well as hand disruption against control decks. Losing access to these tools is a serious drawback.

Another element to consider is that WotC has had a lot of Standard bans in the past few years. In fact there are likely a significant number of players who don't realize how out of the norm Standard bans actually are when you look throughout Magic's history.

If we travel back to the infamous 2011 Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic bannings, WotC hadn't banned a card in Standard for over six years prior to this announcement. They even caved a bit and allowed players who had purchased the War of Attrition event deck (which contained two copies of Stoneforge) to play it in Standard events so long as they didn't modify the deck.

Why do I bring this up? Because it is vitally important for WotC to maintain and grow the Magic playerbase in order to meet sales quotas that, in all likelihood, are ever increasing. There are a few easy ways to lose players:

  1. An unfun metagame. This can occur when a small number of decks dominate it to the point that it becomes stagnant (see Caw-Blade era).
  2. The cards themselves are unfun. This can occur when players don't actually feel like they get to play the game (see Combo Winter back in 1999).
  3. Cards that players have recently acquired are banned. This is at the opposite end of the "Ban/Not-Ban spectrum," but it's still important. People naturally feel more pain at a loss than a gain of equal value, and having their cards banned can easily drive someone away from the game. Personal case in point: I haven't played much Legacy since they banned Sensei's Divining Top, and my overall love of the format diminished after that banning.

Moving Forward

(I'm not sure on the legacy aspects, as my opinion is that unless a deck is so dominant in the format that it eliminates most competitors they should leave it alone; as the barrier of entry to the format is so high that the "loss" of a deck will easily drive players away).

I actually think WotC played this B&R announcement wisely with respect to Standard (I'm less sure on the Legacy aspect). By not banning Goblin Chainwhirler, WotC is allowing the Standard format to change organically rather than force it through a ban.

We are already seeing a metagame shift with the control decks. At US Nationals (the last large-scale tournament I can find any data on, which occurred prior to the B&R announcement), six of the Top 8 decks were Chainwhirler-free, including three UB Control variants we hadn't seen before.

Interestingly enough, these UB decks look as though they should have difficulty with fast aggro variants, as many lack any form of sweeper, instead looking to rely on cheap one-for-one removal until they can land The Scarab God or Torrential Gearhulk and turn the corner. If these decks are viable, than the red-based aggro decks are a bit slower than previous iterations, and we will likely see a shift away from those archetypes.

That being said, we have already entered the pre-rotation slump in anticipation of Kaladesh and Amonkhet blocks leaving in the fall. Speculating on cards from these sets in hopes of short-term spikes is extremely risky. I would avoid cards in the UB Control decks as they lose both their current haymakers in the fall.

I would rather look at cards that will remain in Standard post-rotation, and that match up well against Goblin Chainwhirler should we see a resurgence in Mono-red in the future.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ripjaw Raptor

My favorite anti-Chainwhirler spec is Ripjaw Raptor, which has a high enough toughness to go toe-to-toe with Chainwhirler and live to fight another day. Its enrage trigger is fantastic against any deck relying on damage-based removal, and green midrange decks that would likely play a card like this will overload the red-black variants' limited non-damage based removal spells (i.e. Unlicensed Disintegration).

In fact, I am a fan of the enrage mechanic in general as a good solution to the Chainwhirler menace, as it turns the ETB ability into a potential liability.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thrashing Brontodon

While this card doesn't have any enrage triggers on it, it's a very efficient beater that survives Chainwhirler's ETB effect. It can beat a 3/3 first striker in combat (barring outside assistance) and it's on curve—if your opponent is on the play and drops a turn-three Chainwhirler, you can drop a Brontodon immediately and brickwall it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cast Down

Likely our premier cheap removal spell of the format once Fatal Push rotates out, I really like Cast Down moving forward. It was likely included in Dominaria as a complement to all the powerful legendary creatures in the set. Several months after release we are seeing very few of them show up in Standard decklists, which means its limitations as a spec are minimal at this time.

Daily Stock Watch – Goblin Lackey

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Let's pick up where we left off yesterday by featuring another Legacy star that gained some steam following the departure of Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe. This goblin has been popular throughout the existence of Magic, and its appeal isn't confined to casual crowds or competitive leagues alone. As of today, this card just reached its all-time high of $18.89 and it should only be the beginning of possible spikes from its kin in the event that they do succeed in upcoming Legacy tournaments.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Lackey

Goblins have always been annoyingly destructive, and their right back in the max in a suddenly wide open Legacy format. There have been fringe finishes for Goblin players who have tried their luck in major tournaments as other decks such as Grixis Delver, Dragon Stompy, and Death and Taxes have been the decks of choice for those who tried an aggro approach in an otherwise blue-dominated format. Thanks to the recent bannings, everyone's back to the drawing board on what would be the new deck that dictates the meta, and the goblins are fast (and pesky!) enough to apply constant pressure to any opponent at any given game.

How would you draft your goblin list based on the field? One list that caught my attention looked like this:

Legacy Goblins

Creatures

1 Volley Veteran
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Stingscourger
1 Goblin Trashmaster
2 Gempalm Incinerator
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Warren Instigator
4 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Ringleader

Instants

4 Tarfire

Other Spells

2 Chrome Mox
4 Aether Vial

Lands

2 Plateau
3 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
4 Rishadan Port
4 Mountain
4 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

1 Umezawa's Jitte
4 Stoneforge Mystic
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
4 Faerie Macabre
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Batterskull

It was funny seeing Thalia, Guardian of Thraben right in the middle of a goblin parade, but it was a welcome addition to a red deck that tried its best impression of Death and Taxes so it could setup its brigade. It looks deceivingly slow but trust me, this list is consistently able to put pressure on any opposing deck while keeping combo decks from going off with Thalia. A classic first turn Goblin Lackey, if left unchecked, will bring madness to the battlefield by setting up cards such as Goblin Ringleader, Goblin Matron, and Warren Instigator. Of course, there's always a case of going with mono red and Blood Moon over Thalia, but it remains to be seen how the meta will respond to the most recent changes in it.

Possible Goblin Gainers

I am by no means a Legacy expert, but I know good cards that work with other good cards when I see one. The cards above are all lethal pieces that could fit together seamlessly in the long run if the Goblins are really back in the mix. However, I don't like the chances of these red creatures in the foreseeable future, and I am going to move my pieces that have spiked by all means. Take it with a grain of salt but Legacy is a format that thrives in the power of stability and consistency of its deck pieces -- a bill that a rather slow looking Goblins deck isn't up to task.

At the moment, major online stores such as CardKingdom, StarCityGames, and ChannelFireball are all out of stock of both From the Vault: Exiled copies, and that from Urza's Saga. TCGPlayer still has some vendors that are selling those in bad conditions for somewhere between $16.19 up to $17.54, and nostalgia effect that it brings will somehow help in selling copies. I suggest that you move your copies while you could because this is a spike that's running on the heels of speculations. If you've had a hard time flipping them for $7 back in the day, now's your best time to try moving them around at a lesser price if you could tank it. I don't see any more wiggle room for success on this one unless it really dominates the format all of a sudden.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Daily Stock Watch – Brightling

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I was on the edge of my seat when Battlebond was initially released, having been pleasantly surprised by the reprint of Doubling Season and True-Name Nemesis, with the latter getting its first time foil, and the former getting that much needed reboot to help in easing its price for those who need it in their Commander decks. The arrival of new partner cards also excited a lot of players, but the set somehow felt underwhelming in the absence of a new chase or mythic rare. The waiting time is over, as our featured card today is the probably the poster card of the set outside of the reprints I've mentioned earlier.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brightling

Thanks to some Death and Taxes appearances, Brightling makes it to the main roster of Legacy decks and brews, and reaches its all-time high of $19.97 in the process. People saw it coming, but didn't really buy the idea until it made that cameo in this list that was brought to an 11th place finish by Brent Miles in SCG Classic Atlanta.

Death and Taxes

Creatures

1 Vryn Wingmare
2 Recruiter of the Guard
2 Brightling
2 Mirran Crusader
2 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Flickerwisp
4 Mother of Runes
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Instants

4 Swords to Plowshares

Other Spells

1 Batterskull
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Umezawa's Jitte
4 Aether Vial

Lands

3 Karakas
4 Wasteland
4 Rishadan Port
4 Snow-Covered Plains
9 Plains

Sideboard

2 Council's Judgment
1 Cataclysm
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Path to Exile
2 Rest in Peace
1 Leonin Relic-Warder
2 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Sword of War and Peace

D&T has always been one of the more stable decks in Legacy, and it shouldn't go away any time soon, all the more that Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe got nixed from the format. This paved the way for the resurgence of the deck and the entry of Brightling as one of the quicker finishers as you choke your enemy's resources while sneaking in your cheap threats. This should be the first step in the quest of D&T players to polish their lists, and I don't expect Brightling to miss the cut going forward. The foil copies of this card is suddenly very valuable!

Battlebond Treasures

With the exception of my personal pick Thrilling Encore, I'm expecting most, if not all of these cards, to see more price gains in the future. Battlebond still brings that thrilling experience to pack openers (like me and my friends) that the new set doesn't because of the crazy foil prices that some of its cards command. Brightling foils are already close to $100 each, and that should only continue to surge as time goes by. I don't think this card is getting a reprint pretty soon, and it will only increase in value as the market runs dry of BBD supplies.

At the moment, you could get copies of Brightling via TCGPlayer for anywhere between $17.97 up to $19.79. Other big stores such as StarCityGames, Card Kingdom, and ChannelFireball are out of stock, but they should be reloading anytime soon considering that this is a young set that still have lots of print running around. Foil copies are priced absurdly, and is something that I wouldn't recommend for spec purposes unless you're really high on it. The normal copies are a good buy at $15 and less, and I don't think it will be hard to find those in trade binders given the supply in circulation. Brightling has a rather bright future ahead of it indeed.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Unlocked: MTGO Market Report for July 11th, 2018

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of July 10, 2018. The TCGplayer market and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the market price or mid price respectively. Redeemable sets are highlighted in green and sets not available for redemption are highlighted in red.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although Hour of Devastation (HOU), Amonkhet (AKH), Aether Revolt (AER), and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard. Core Set 2019 (M19) prices start this week, though TCG prices are not yet available.

Standard

Core Set 2019 (M19) became available for sealed deck leagues on Friday and is now available for drafting as well. The initial set price on MTGO is low relative to the starting set price of Dominaria (DAR) but it is in line with Ixalan (XLN) and Rivals of Ixalan (RIX). The price will be worth watching as it evolves over the coming weeks.

There's no short-term speculative opportunity here due to the massive influx of supply created by drafters as they devour the new set, but players will not be overpaying by a large amount if they are looking to get their hands on the new cards. Both RIX and XLN found a price bottom at around 55 tix, which for M19 would represent a 30 percent decline from its current price. Players who can stomach that kind of loss in order to play with the new set should feel free to buy the cards they need, but see the section below specific to foil mythic rares discusses how players can save a few tix by purchasing the foil versions.

With DAR no longer being heavily drafted, the price bottom is in on full sets of DAR. Redemption to paper sets means that complete digital sets will be anchored to the paper prices and redemption for DAR will continue into September. As long as redemption continues, the price of any set will not completely crater and DAR will see modest price gains over the coming weeks as the market adjusts to the diminished supply from the switch to M19 draft.

Standard Boosters

IXL and RIX boosters are dropping in price and are right around 1 tix at the moment. This is completely normal price action as XLN block draft is no longer available in the queues, thus the only value they have is the contents of the boosters. The expected value of both is around 0.6 tix, which represents the current price floor.

A decline below 0.8 tix will be the price at which speculators should get interested. Prices on Standard boosters that are not being drafted stick around 1 tix over the long term and a price below 0.8 tix would represent a temporary dip as drafters overwhelm the market with excess supply.

DAR boosters look like great value at the moment. They dipped to about 1.8 tix, but have rebounded to a little under 2.0 tix. DAR will continue to be popular among drafters as it has gotten rave reviews from top-notch Limited players like Ben Stark, and typically a core set has simpler gameplay which means that DAR will remain a strong choice for drafters as they master M19 draft and look elsewhere for a more challenging draft environment. The fact that M19 rapidly dropped in price also means that DAR boosters are cheaper and have higher expected value, making them attractive to value-conscious players looking to draft on the cheap.

A draft set of DAR could crest over 8 tix, representing a 33-percent rise over the current price of 6 tix. As high as 9 tix is not completely out of the question either, and it will be worth watching how quickly DAR boosters rebound in price. The draft window for DAR was a little under three months and not the over six months that XLN block draft was available. This means that there's less time for excess supply of DAR boosters to build up in the MTGO economy. With less supply, price increases will be more rapid as drafters quickly consume the value available in drafting DAR using sealed product as opposed to paying the tix only entry fee of 12 tix. With a price of about 8 tix (6 tix in the DAR draft set and 2 tix for the entry fee), entering the draft queues with product is a substantial discount at the moment.

Foil Mythic Rares

Buying foil mythic rares from the newest set as soon as they are available is a tried, tested and true strategy for consistent gains. Originally it was considered a way to preserve value for players, but the profits have been so steady that speculators should consider it too. The strategy relies on two key realities. Redemption provides a link to paper prices and foil prices are high and relatively stable.

The one to one nature of redeeming digital to paper cards also means that digital versions are leaving MTGO in a one to one ratio, but due to their booster pack rarities, cards are not entering MTGO in the same ratio. Thus, value accrues to mythic rares since they are the appear the least frequently in boosters. Mythic rares are the bottleneck to the redemption process, and for foils this means value accrues to them over time as their relative rarity increases in the MTGO economy as sets are redeemed. The key is to not try to pick and choose individual mythic rares, but to buy the whole lot in order to capture the gains in value.

This is why players should feel confident that buying a playset of foil mythic rares is a good bet as a long-term store of value, unlike buying the regular versions which will certainly lose value. Speculators have also seen gains with DAR foil mythic rares being particularly worthwhile. In the case of DAR, foil sets increased in price rapidly by about 100 tix after it was released, with this value plus some extra from the other rarities accruing to the mythic rares. Buying foil mythic rares early in DAR's release translated into a net gain of 41 percent in a little under two months.

The prospects for M19 are similar if not so rosy, but the trade is becoming more crowded over time as more people catch on to the trend. It's getting harder to be an aggressive buyer of foil mythic rares early in the release window, but if you are a player there is no real bad time to be purchasing a store of value as opposed to losing value in the regular versions.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. There are three great opportunities for deploying tix this week and I've been busy doing just that. Foil mythic rares from M19, full sets of DAR and draft sets of DAR are good buying opportunities this week. For new readers looking to test out any of these, DAR boosters are very liquid and they scale as an investment, meaning you can buy a small amount or a large amount. I've bought over one hundred draft sets as of writing this article.

Full sets of DAR is the trickiest of the bunch a profit in the 10 to 20 percent range is what to expect. Unlike boosters which will get the benefit of strong demand from drafters, and foil mythics which also have strong dynamics supporting their price, full sets take a little finesse and some guesswork in timing the exit point. The addition of DAR singles to Treasure Chests also complicates the matter as extra supply is now entering the market from a source other than the queues. This makes full set speculations more suitable for players looking to maximize the value they get from playing with the cards. DAR boosters and M19 foil mythic rares have superior fundamentals and outlook than complete sets of DAR so balance your speculations accordingly.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #1

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Hey, everyone. I'm Edward Eng, a tournament grinder who started playing Magic in 1994. I’m here to bring you insight from the ground floor in this Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em series.

Each article will focus on two types of cards: 1) cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they are pretty far from the next reprint, and 2) cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Hold ‘Em

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben - WMCQ Promos


Death and Taxes is starting to see an uptick in viability and popularity in Legacy with the recent bannings of Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe, and Thalia sees play as a four-of in Modern Humans a well. This is also a promo, which are considered the next buyout targets for speculators, according to Chas Andres. You can read his SCG article on that here.

Aether Vial - Iconic Masters

Another card that’s a four-of in both of those decks is Aether Vial. It’s kind of funny that this card is one of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben's best friends, considering it’s a non-creature spell. And it didn’t get the ax with the latest B&R announcement. If you don’t have Aether Vials and want to play them, this would be a good time to pick them up, as I don’t think they’re going to get any cheaper than they are right now.

Mox Amber - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)

This is pretty much the floor for Mox Amber. This is barely seeing any play right now. But as soon as it does, it’s going to skyrocket, and you’re going to kick yourself if you have to spend $20 or $30 a piece on these. I don’t see this reaching $5. But if it does, so what? You lose a few bucks per copy for a mythic rare that’s a Mox and can also be played as a four-of. It’s all upside. This is one of those cards that can only get better over time – think Snapcaster Mage – as more cards are printed.

If Wizards ever prints a legendary one-CMC mana dork, the price of this will go through the roof. And even if they don’t, there’s a chance this will be paired with Sai, Master Thopterist, since this is one of the more powerful cards from the new M19 set. More on this card right now:

Sai, Master Thopterist - M19 (Foil)

So the play on this card is to pick up foils under $10 bucks a piece if you still can. I wish I could have published this article when I collectively preordered eight foil copies at $5 each from SCG and Card Kingdom. You can still find some on eBay. And there are just a few foils on TCGplayer right now. This card has many positives: It has 4 toughness. It’s blue. It’s easily splashable. It makes evasive creatures. It draws cards. And it also fits into the can-only-get-better-over-time category of cards.

Fold ‘Em

Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands

Blackcleave Cliffs is atrociously expensive right now at around $42. There’s only the Scars of Mirrodin printing of these lands. And just like Scapeshift, they can be easily reprinted in Standard or the next Masters set as rares. If you have extra copies of Blackcleave Cliffs lying around, I would get rid of them along with any of the other SOM fastlands to lock in value now. Keeping your playset of each, especially Cliffs to play Hollowine or Dredge is probably fine, but anything else is pretty risky.

Bonus Picks

 

Thorn Lieutenant - M19 (Foil)

I preordered a set of these for $3 each on Card Kingdom. It’s a two-CMC 2/3 that’s splashable. It’s an Elf that could see play in multiples in Standard, Modern, and a slim chance in Legacy. It also makes an Elf if your opponent uses targeted removal on it. And it’s a good mid- to late-game mana sink. Plus, I hear green is good in EDH.

Traxos, Scourge of Kroog - Dominaria (Foil)

I ordered 8 copies of the prerelease foil from SCG at $1.50 each. This relatively new Vintage MUD addition could easily slot into other artifact decks in Legacy, Modern, or Standard. And I hope you haven’t already forgot about Sai, Master Thopterist and Mox Amber mentioned above. I don’t know if Mox Opal will ever see play alongside Mox Amber. But the fact that with Mox Diamond there are three different Moxes available, makes this a quite enticing spec target.

So there you have it...my picks for the inaugural article of the Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em series. I hope you enjoyed and found it useful.

Summary

Hold ‘Em
-Thalia, Guardian of Thraben - WMCQ Promos
-Aether Vial - Iconic Masters
-Mox Amber - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
-Sai, Master Thopterist - M19 (Foil)

Fold ‘Em
-Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands

Bonus Picks
-Thorn Lieutenant - M19 (Foil)
-Traxos, Scourge of Kroog - Dominaria (Foil)

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Answering Combo: A Beginner’s Guide

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The Modern PPTQ season begins at the end of July. For consummate grinders like myself, this is a call to break out the tech and start polish decks. It's also a call to start playtesting, both to understand how my own deck works and to understand how other decks operate. One of the greatest challenges for a tournament player is facing a deck and having no idea what is happening. Most commonly, this happens against combo decks. Today, I will be explain my strategies for facing combo decks.

It is something of a running joke that nobody understands how Ironworks actually works; not even Matt Nass. That may only be a joke, but Matt did spend a lot of time on camera explaining what was going on to his opponents and (it looked to me) the judges. His primer on the deck is also dense with interactions and lines of play, yet vague about how the combo works. Certainly, Yuri Ramsey didn't seem like he understood what was happening during his finals loss to Matt. This is a huge advantage for any deck, especially combo decks.

The Question of Answers

When it comes to answering combo decks, the first thing that springs to most players' minds is hate. Which is not inaccurate; combo hate is the best way to beat combo. However, what I'm talking about today is when hate is not an option. Perhaps the appropriate hate is normally unplayable, or your deck can't run the right type; more likely, it's game 1, when you won't have any. This is when practice and playtesting are critical. Without the experience and familiarity of playing against the deck, there's no way to know how to win—had Yuri done more playtesting against Ironworks, he might have known the correct time to blow his Oblivion Stone.

However, that may not be possible. The opponent across the table may be living the dream with a completely off-the-wall deck that nobody's seen before. There was no way to prepare for the deck, and now you're completely lost. This is where I've seen a lot of players, myself included, get tilted and give up. It's very dispiriting to be so lost and confused.

The answer is to focus and not panic. Even completely weird decks will have common identifying threads with more mainstream combos that can be seized on. Knowing generally how a combo works provides clues to how to fight back and provide a hope of winning. I may not have the right answers, but as long as I can figure out what is happening, I can determine if I have answers or a strategy that are good enough to win anyway.

Beyond Fairness

I have previously covered the broad categories of combo decks, or the fair and unfair varieties. But whether fair or unfair, combo decks operate in a few predictable ways with some noticeable tells. Reading these tells and knowing what they mean for the combo determines how they can be disrupted.

Critical Mass Combo

Critical mass decks are combo's most recognizable form, i.e. Storm. These decks need certain cards in large quantities to start their combos. They often do nothing for several turns before finding the right cards to win. Once that happens, they "go off" and start doing math to determine a path to victory. Critical mass decks tend give themselves away since they don't do much early but cantrip, sculpt their hands, and maybe play a telegraphing enabler.

There are many options for disrupting critical mass decks. Keeping them off their mass is the obvious move, but that isn't always possible; Storm survives Thoughtseize and Liliana of the Veil via Past in Flames, for instance. A stonewall of counterspells is more effective thanks to instant speed, but not without another element.

The trick is to attack from multiple angles. Jund relies on discard to proactively disrupt Storm, then Scavenging Ooze to close the door. Humans taxes the combo and attacks their hand while presenting a very fast clock. Tron struggles against these combos because Karn Liberated is not very disruptive and its clock is slow. Figure out what kinds of disruption are available and prioritize them.

Snowball Combo

While critical mass decks need their resources before starting to combo, snowball decks build as they go. These decks tend to depend on lots of permanents, and don't hold cards in hand, differentiating them from critical mass decks. Ironworks is a great example. The deck needs certain pieces to combo off, but it doesn't need to have them right away. It can play out its pieces well before actually finding Krark-Clan Ironworks or Scrap Trawler, use them to dig for more cantrips or crucial cards, and just build up over a period of turns to eventually combo off, as does a snowball rolling down a hill.

Ideally, it's best to prevent these types of decks from gaining momentum in the first place. This isn't always possible, as for example Ironworks plays cantrip artifacts to find and fuel its combo. Each Chromatic Star popped is a chance to hit and play another one. It's not really possible to disrupt that chain meaningfully. Focus instead on what the deck is lacking, be that a critical piece, mana sources, or even card quantity, and attack appropriately. The timing of disruption is far more important here than against critical mass.

The goal is to either stall or break the snowball. For example, the current version of Ironworks needs its namesake and Scrap Trawler to win via Pyrite Spellbomb recursion. Once the combo gets going, it will find multiple copies of both. However, if either is removed early, there may not be opportunity to find more. Removing Ironworks in response to Trawler or vice versa breaks the engine. Ironworks without Trawler means mana but no guarantee of more fuel; the opposite means fuel, but no way to use it. If the chain hiccups, it may be difficult to restart, providing a window for opponents to win. Waiting too long looking for value or a more opportune moment lets the snowball grow out of control. Hit the combo at the earliest opportunity.

Right Card Combo

These combos revolve around a small number of cards that win the game if resolved. These combos are self-contained and independent of the rest of the deck. Storm needs the right cards to go off, but it also needs them in quantity. Valakut needs to have its namesake card to win, but doing that doesn't automatically win the game. These two decks require more to happen once the combo is assembled.

Right card decks include Ad Nauseam and Splinter Twin. If Splinter Twin resolves on a Deceiver Exarch, the combo has succeeded. Nothing else needs to happen; there's no question of resources or possibility of fizzling. The assembled combo wins unless immediately disrupted.

These decks can be the hardest to recognize in-game. They don't build to anything, and may not telegraph the combo at all. A deck like Ad Nauseam is mainly cantrips and artifact mana so it does telegraph, but it's an exception. Fair combo decks like Twin or Abzan Company tend to fall under this category, and to the uninitiated, they do not look like combo decks.

The identification method I use is to ask myself whether the deck is doing something good enough for Modern. If what I'm seeing looks mediocre at best or has odd card choices, I get suspicious and adjust my play so that if there is a combo coming I have an answer.

To defeat these combos, simply prevent the combo from resolving. Unlike the other types of combo, there are no alternative routes to victory. Cards A and C must be resolved with Card B in the right order. Answering any piece of the combo by any means disarms it: Ad Nauseam cannot realistically win without its namesake card; counter or discard the Ad Nauseam, and the deck fizzles. However, the risk is that opponents can simply topdeck another copy of the missing piece and slam it down for the win.

Therefore, these are the only types of decks where Cranial Extraction effects are as good as players think they are, to the point that Ad Nauseam conceding to Slaughter Games is reasonable move. Whether this applies to a specific right card combo depends on the deck. It is completely true of Ad Nauseam, arguable about Ironworks, and completely untrue of Abzan Company and Splinter Twin.

How to Respond

Determining what combo type and how to fight it are only part of the battle. The next step is deciding what your deck can actually do against that combo. This is entirely dependent on what you're playing. The more answers in the deck, the more options available, but that can be a trap. It is critical to identify the best strategy for your deck in the situation.

Quantity of Answers

This option is the classic stonewall approach: just answer everything relevant, and the combo fizzles. Of course, identifying the relevant spells can prove tricky. On the surface, only Gifts Ungiven and Past in Flames really matter in Storm, but only countering those cards can leave the door open for multiple Grapeshots with Remand.

The problem with this method is that it isn't sufficient by itself. UW Control can counter as many spells as it wants, but if it doesn't apply pressure, Storm will eventually force its way through. This is why Vendilion Clique is so good against combo decks: it both disrupts and closes out the game.

Tempo them Out

This is the most common method, and the reason that aggro-control and tempo decks are so strong against combo. This strategy uses disruption to slow the combo deck to ensure that its clock is faster. Discarding or countering a few key pieces while creatures crash in is the classic anti-combo strategy for a very good reason. Humans is a prime example of this strategy since its clock is also its disruption. Tempo-ing combo decks doesn't require that much disruption; just the right piece at the right time.

Destroy the Combo

The third method is to proactively destroy the combo, or remove the combo pieces from the combo deck. As previously mentioned, this is most effective against right card decks, but it is also hard to do incidentally. Cranial Extraction and Slaughter Games are not very good cards normally, so there's little reason to have them except as combo hate. Surgical Extraction sees more play, and can do the job, but only if the right piece is in the graveyard and the game isn't lost. Generally, this is only possible if it's intentionally built into the sideboard.

Moot the Combo

Sometimes, a deck simply isn't vulnerable to an undisrupted combo. This is a very rare situation, but it can happen. Mooting a combo doesn't disrupt or prevent the combo, but instead renders it superfluous and unable to actually win the game. The combo still goes off, but it isn't lethal. The best example I have is Soul Sisters vs Splinter Twin. As long as Sisters had a Soul Warden on the battlefield, Twin could never combo-kill with Deceiver Exarch because every Exarch made was countered by a point of lifegain. Two sisters stopped Pestermite.

This is not playing Platinum Angel. Angel functions more like a hate card, since it prevents the effects of the combo (theoretically). To moot the combo, it must be rendered impotent without a direct attack or roadblock. The only way I know for this to work is through lifegain. Lots, and LOTS of lifegain. Creature combo is pretty rare these days, so the only way I can think of to gain inordinate amounts of life is Martyr of Sands. Even then, it takes multiples, and probably recursion to really be out of Storm or Valakut's reach.

Just Race

Some decks just don't have the means to realistically disrupt a combo. Their only hope is to race. Just because the combo deck can goldfish on turn three doesn't mean it actually will. Every tournament-caliber deck has a failure rate. The more pieces required to win, the more likely it is to fail. Many combo decks can't really win playing normal Magic, and therefore tend to have higher failure rates than non-combo decks. That rate increases the more pressure is applied. Putting the combo deck on the clock and forcing them to win first may yield a win.

Linear aggro decks have historically bad matchups against combo because they don't interact, but aggro decks also have low failure rates. They're more likely than other decks to actually hit their goldfish target in a given game (usually turn four). Therefore, forcing a combo deck to go off or die before they're actually ready is a perfectly valid strategy. It's not ideal, but if your deck lacks the means to disrupt the combo, leaving them dead on board and crossing your fingers can work.

Don't Play Scared

Never underestimate the ability of combo players to not "have it." Combos do fail of their own accord. I frequently see newer players playing so scared against combo decks that they fail to win games. Rather than simply playing their strategy and trying to win, there is an obsession with representing answers in hopes that it keeps the combo player from going for the win. This can work, but only when the opponent has reason to believe you actually have the represented answer. Even then, given enough time, the combo player will simply sculpt their hand until the represented answer is irrelevant.

While in interactive matchups it is often correct to play around cards, that isn't always possible against combo. Against a decent combo player, it will actually hurt more to play around them than to ignore them. The combo player will go for it at some point, and the later that point is, the more likely the combo is to succeed. Disrupt the combo or race the combo; just don't try and bluff the combo if it impedes your own gameplan. Make your opponent as afraid of your gameplan as you are of theirs, and even against completely unknown decks, you stand a chance of victory.

Daily Stock Watch – Sunscape Familiar

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Brewing season in Standard has started, with Core 2019 slated for a full release party over this coming weekend. There will be lots of holdovers from the current season that will get some extra pieces or upgrades, while there will be some that won't much (mono Red and B/R Aggro comes to mind) of the new cards from the new set. An interesting cycle of mythics are in play from M19, and these are new tri-color dragon lords that could tickle the fancy of the casual crowd and brewers alike. Our card for today is one that has been seeing lots of play in Pauper, but is suddenly surging because of its relevance to Arcades, the Strategist in table tops and Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunscape Familiar

We usually get price spikes from lowly commons and uncommons from years ago because of a couple of reasons: one, they are on the Reserved List; two, they are seeing moderate to heavy play in Pauper; or they have some serious implications in the development of an existing deck or new archetype in Commander. Sunscape Familiar is now a $2.25 card thanks largely to the former, as it gives your Arcades Commander deck a lot of discount the entire way, and a two drop that swings for three when the coast is clear.

Just so we have a picture of how it looks like, here's one list to take a look at.

Arcardes, Lord of Walls

Commander

Deck Components

1 Always Watching
1 Amaranthine Wall
1 Assault Formation
1 Axebane Guardian
1 Bar the Door
1 Beast Within
1 Bountiful Promenade
1 Brave the Sands
1 Breeding Pool
1 Chromatic Lantern
1 Command Tower
1 Crenellated Wall
1 Cultivate
1 Cyclonic Rift
1 Darksteel Ingot
1 Drift of Phantasms
1 Dusk // Dawn
1 Fell the Mighty
1 Flooded Strand
1 Fog Bank
4 Forest
1 Fortified Area
1 Geist of the Archives
1 Ghostly Prison
1 Glacial Wall
1 Guard Gomazoa
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Herald's Horn
1 Hornet Nest
1 Hover Barrier
5 Island
1 Jeskai Barricade
1 Jungle Barrier
1 Kodama's Reach
1 Living Wall
1 Marble Titan
1 Meekstone
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Oathsworn Giant
1 Overgrown Battlement
1 Panharmonicon
1 Path to Exile
1 Perimeter Captain
15 Plains
1 Propaganda
1 Psychic Membrane
1 Retribution of the Meek
1 Return to Dust
1 Reveillark
1 Sea of Clouds
1 Serra's Blessing
1 Sidar Kondo of Jamuraa
1 Slaughter the Strong
1 Solar Tide
1 Stalwart Shield-Bearers
1 Steel Wall
1 Sunscape Familiar
1 Suspicious Bookcase
1 Swords to Plowshares
1 Sylvan Caryatid
1 Sylvan Reclamation
1 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
1 Temple Garden
1 Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive
1 Traproot Kami
1 Tree of Redemption
1 Vine Trellis
1 Wall of Air
1 Wall of Blossoms
1 Wall of Denial
1 Wall of Frost
1 Wall of Glare
1 Wall of Mist
1 Wall of Nets
1 Wall of Omens
1 Wall of Tanglecord
1 Wargate
1 Windswept Heath

Isn't it lovely that walls can attack again? This is an idea that was originally brought to life by Doran, the Siege Tower, but the appeal of drawing an extra card every time a wall comes in to play is what made deck innovators in Commander drool for its potential. Although singling out Arcades regularly will be the best plan to beat the deck, it's still a tall task to try and tumble it in the face of these mammoth defense system that almost nullifies opposing creatures from getting through. It's an annoying deck to play with at the very least, and I'm sure that a lot of players will be looking forward to getting into the skin of their peeps. Sunscape Familiar is easily one of the best defenders on this list, both value and strength-wise, and it's also worth noting that it's from a set that was printed a long time ago. It's time to dig your treasure chest for these wonderful walls.

The Walls of Jericho

Some of these guys will get some nice financial boost if Arcades is able to do its best impression of Doran decks from the past. The absence of black and red means there won't be much removal outside of white, but the presence of blue gives the deck the card drawing-prowess that it needs to explode out of the gates. I think that we could be staring at an actual deck here in the long run, for WotC will continue to print defenders in the years to come.

At the moment, you could get copies of Sunscape Familiar from TCGPlayer for anywhere between $0.15 up to $2.45 based on card condition. Major online stores such as Card Kingdom, ChannelFireball, and StarCityGames are all out of stock, and will be expected to refill north of $3 in case they are able to do so. The foil will come at a premium price, and you should be lucky enough to find one in circulation nowadays. It should be a safe pick up at $2 or less, as there will be lots of room to grow for this card. Keep an eye out for it in your daily trades!

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Unlocked: The Legacy Purge and the Trends It Creates

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I can't stress enough how big the July 2, 2018, Banned and Restricted Announcement will be on the future of Legacy moving forward. With Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe biting the dust, we are now left with a dramatically different format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gitaxian Probe

Yes, it's still Legacy and it will still be great. Yes, people will adapt and embrace this new format. I would be shocked if Legacy didn't see a boost in play simply because of the "new and exciting" element of playing a refreshed format.

The announcement is extremely significant in that banning Deathrite Shaman is basically banning the top pillar of the format. The most popular, winning, and successful archetypes in the format – Four-Color Control and Grixis Delver – accounted for over 30 percent of the winner's metagame, and to simply blow up that archetype in an Eternal format is unparalleled.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathrite Shaman

Keep in mind, this isn't like banning a card like Flash or Survival of the Fittest which emerged, quickly rose to domitate their respective metagames, and were predictably extracted from the format. In contrast, Deathrite Shaman isn't a flashy win-the-game-in-a-can card. It's a piece that provides utility, consistency, and protection from graveyard strategies. Traditionally, we think of banning "unfair" cards, but Deathrite Shaman is a bit different: it does something "fair" but simply does it with too much efficiency and utility for the cost of a single Golgari hybrid mana.

Today's article isn't to debate whether it was right or wrong. Personally, I kind of liked where Legacy was at before the banning and slightly favored doing nothing. However, the numbers did seem to suggest a growing problem in terms of how much DRS was taking over the format. In terms of play, Deathrite Shaman was approaching Brainstorm levels of ubiquity, and even more problematic, it was becoming yet another anchoring force in Brainstorm/Force of Will-style decks.

Something Has To Take DRS's Place

It's funny – when a card like Deathrite Shaman is legal in Legacy, it's easy to take it for granted just how good the card is. Now that it's gone, it should become clear to players that it isn't an easy card to replace because it is simply so effective. I would also argue that Legacy has become completely warped around playing against Deathrite Shaman decks, which is no longer a pressure holding the format in place.

If one considers just the Grixis Delver and Four-Color Control metagame space that has become available, that is a huge insurgence of deck slots to fill. We can also assume that decks that were particularly well positioned against Grixis and 4c suddenly get much worse, since their natural prey has essentially evaporated from the format.

We know that something has to fill this space, but what? And more importantly, how can we as MTG finance-minded individuals take advantage of emergent trends and capitalize?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Peek

I know I am focusing much harder on DRS than Gitaxian Probe, and I should take a moment to address that.

Probe being banned isn't really a big deal. Sure, there are decks that play it, but it is much easier to replace a card like Gitaxian Probe than Deathrite Shaman. I definitely think the DCI got it right to nix Probe, since it isn't a card that facilitates anything other than faster wins, increased consistency, and free triggers for the investment of no mana.

Most people sort of accept that Phyrexian mana was a big mistake in terms ofgameplay, and Probe is one of the most egregious offenders. On the other hand, Deathrite Shaman is a banning that will significantly change the way we play the format.

Decks That Will Get Better – And the Cards You Should Pick Up

It should be fairly common knowledge that blue decks anchored by absurdly effective spells like Brainstorm, Ponder, and Force of Will have always been the defining force in Legacy. It has always been this way and probably always will.

Deathrite Shaman is just one card in a long line of great Brainstorm/FOW decks. Banning Deathrite Shaman does not make blue decks bad, it simply makes them different.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Show and Tell

Show and Tell is a blue deck that immediately comes to mind as poised to make a move. Grixis Delver was a natural predator of the archetype since it featured so much cheap disruption and a fast clock. DRS was basically the reason to play these sort of Delver aggro/control decks. Without DRS, we may see a rise in combo decks like Sneak and Show that struggled with the stacked permission and efficient clock of Grixis.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Griselbrand

Griselbrand is another card to keep an eye on. It is worth noting that reanimator strategies are likely to improve greatly without Deathrite Shaman to hold them back. On the draw, these decks facing down a Deathrite Shaman were often looking at close to an automatic loss, but no longer!

Reanimator is a powerful strategy. It can win the game by resolving one important spell, similar to Show and Tell. With DRS in the format, Reanimator decks evolved to be more "all in" to try and avoid fighting DRS games of attrition. Now those decks can transform back into a more traditional combo-control style.

All-in, or flimsy, combo gets better with DRS gone. In particular, variants that play out of the graveyard. Speaking of:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Life from the Loam
There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ichorid

It's ironic that banning a hybrid Golgari card is basically the best possible thing for true fans of the Golgari guild!

Lands and Dredge both get much better in the new metagame. Both are powerful strategies that need to go through the graveyard and benefit greatly from zero Deathrite Shamans floating around in the format.

Life from the Loam is just an amazing Magic card. I'm likely going to stock up on extra copies in anticipation of some movement. It could also be the kind of card that sees play in new grindy Sultai decks that push Wasteland hard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wasteland

Overall, the single card that may have gotten better in Legacy is Wasteland. When DRS was around, it was hard to really disrupt mana generation with it, simply because a resolved Deathrite insulated them so well. Now without DRS, Wasteland becomes much more punishing against land-light decks that don't have a great way to push through or catch up after being disrupted.

I'd be shocked if Wasteland didn't see a tremendous uptick in play over the next month in Legacy, which could lead to rising prices on the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Back to Basics

Miracles is another deck that I'm interested in picking up again now that DRS is gone. I also think this is the kind of strategy that is good enough, and familiar enough, that it will potentially draw a lot of the displaced Four-Color Control or Grixis players to it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Vial

Aether Vial is another card that I think is nicely poised to make a big splash in the new metagame. Death and Taxes gets much better without Deathrite Shaman floating around and has the proper hate cards to survive even the most busted metagames.

In particular, I think Containment Priest will be a huge player in Legacy moving forward:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Containment Priest

I went pretty hard on getting Masterpiece versions of this card and am pretty happy about that. However, I think this card has a lot of room to improve in the coming months. If decks like Dredge, Show and Tell, and Reanimator were all held in check by DRS, what is to stop them from coming back in force?

Well, nothing. But Containment Priest is an amazing card that I would love to have access to against all of these potentially popular decks. It's even the kind of card that can be played maindeck in an Eldrazi and Taxes deck alongside Eldrazi Displacer:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eldrazi Displacer

Come to think of it, Eldrazi strategies geared around Chalice of the Void and Sol Ring lands like Eldrazi Temple, Ancient Tomb, and City of Traitors also seem like a downright decent place to be. Those decks also make great use of timely Wastelands and lock pieces such as Chalice.


There's a lot going on in Legacy and nothing has even happened – well, besides the most significant Legacy banning in the history of the format.

Enjoy the change. Do some brewing. And play something you like until the dust settles. There's plenty of opportunities to cash in on the banning – just look for the decks and cards that become more important than they were yesterday.

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