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How Deep is Too Deep?

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Welcome back, readers! Today's article is inspired by one of QS's Insiders, who went very deep on a recently spiking Standard uncommon. How deep, you ask? 3000 copies. This member saw potential and went all-in. Depending on their buy-in costs, this could net them some major gains

There was an error retrieving a chart for Siren Stormtamer

One of the biggest challenges involved with MTG speculation is that, as opposed to something like the stock market, the pool of buyers and sellers is considerably smaller. Where you can buy and sell large quantities of a given stock in a matter of seconds most of the time, doing so with Magic cards is considerably more difficult because there aren't always others looking to buy them at the very moment you are selling them; hence, you can't simply list them and sell immediately.

To make matters worse, because the demand pool is so much smaller, the longer the sales take, the more likely the price will adjust – and if you're adding a ton of copies to the supply, then it's far more likely to adjust downward than it is to adjust upward, which would require a massive rise in play in the metagame.

It's difficult for a major store to unload 3000 copies of a card quickly, let alone someone who doesn't have a storefront, large local playerbase, and well-known store-name recognition.

What are the Best Ways for a Backpack Grinder to Sell Cards?

  1. Sell on TCGplayer or eBay – In my opinion, the obvious best place to unload cards that have spiked is online (where people can buy into the hype if they so choose), and with these services you only pay 10-13% of the final sale value (which is likely retail or close to it).
  2. Sell on Facebook or Craigslist – This option will likely provide the most profit (as the fees are very low or nonexistent); however, your likelihood of moving a large number of copies is minimal.
  3. Sell to a buylist – This option will allow you to move a large number of copies of a given card; unfortunately, it will usually be far below retail. To make matters worse, most buylists don't adjust quickly (so you miss out on the highest retail value) and the new updated buylist prices will be a percentage off of the stabilized price (which is typically lower). While buylists are likely the last resort for maximizing profits, when you have a lot of cards to move, they are by far the easiest route to take. Unfortunately, many of the higher-paying ones may have a limit of how many copies of a card they will accept.
  4. Don't forget store credit – There is one last option our Insider can look at, though it won't see profits immediately. If they don't need immediate cash, there is the option toĀ take advantage of some of the large trade-in bonuses many stores offer when buylisting. This credit can be used to reinvest in cards and grow profits even more.

At the time of this writing, Siren Stormtamer has dropped from a high of $5.25 down to around $4.50 (retail). It was around 80 cents all the way through the end of April 2018 before it started to climb, plateaued at around $2.50, and then this next spike jumped it even more.

The key for our Insider is that the price on this card was already decent beforeĀ this latest spike.

Why Is a Decent Preexisting Price Before the Spike Important?

Because, as I mentioned, store buylist prices tend to lag behind retail prices, though it does appear like they are starting to reduce that window (it used to be one to two weeks before you'd see most buylists shift, in order to eliminate the risk of a pump and dump).

So below is a table showing what our QS member might expect to be able to get for his giant pile of Siren Stormtamers:

Note: The "Return" value assumes that the cards are sold in playsets each time, which is reasonable given that it's a four-of in its respective deck.

This does assume that Star City Games will in fact take 1,961 copies of the card (while they don't advertise a max quantity, it seems reasonable that they might consider limiting very large quantities of a card like this).

This also assumes that our seller wants to unload said cards ASAP. The longer the new price sticks, the higher the buylist prices will likely go, as stores gain confidence in the new price. However, that does mean that our Insider takes on a fair amount of risk: if the deck driving demand falls out of favor and the price starts to fall, they will have missed out on the highest prices as buylists and retail prices drop.

The Buy-In Price Matters

Looking over this chart, the big question is "what was their buy-in price"? Looking over the price graph of Siren Stormtamer, we see that it held steady at around 80 cents for a long time (at TCGplayer mid), so the low was likely closer to 50 cents.

If our Insider's buy-in was in the 25- to 40-cent price range, they come away making a lot of money.Ā Some quick math shows that 3000 copies at 25 cents each would be $750 and 3000 copies at 40 cents each would be $1200. A buy-in in this range means our Insider would make somewhere in the range of $5,000 to $5,700, which is very impressive.

Consider the Risks

However, let's not ignore that our Insider took on a fair amount of risk with this play. We shouldn't simply ignore that risk because the outcome turned out extremely favorably.

It's very rare that we have a Standard-legal uncommon break and maintain $5, especially if it is not an Eternal staple (like say Fatal Push or Path to Exile). Now, I actually think Siren Stormtamer could find a home in an Eternal format given its aggressive cost, evasion, andĀ extremely powerful ability. That being said, it's nowhere near as ubiquitous as the previously mentioned removal spells, and it's likely to return to the 50- to 75-cent range at rotation. The reason this is important is that it puts a clock on unloading one's copies,Ā  as any copies that don't move will likely drop back down to or below the acquisition price. It's extremely important for everyone speculating to understand their outs before they start buying in.

One of the keyĀ things to consider when speculating, regardless of how deep you plan on going, is to know your outs ahead of time. This isn't to say it will always work out (buylists change, stores close down, etc.), but having a plan ahead of time is huge when you're up against a clock to unload a card after it has jumped up in value.

Flashback Friday: The Hidden Value of Fair Trades

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New to Quiet Speculation? An old-school lover of the classics? Looking for a refresher? Just want something to read? No matter who you are,Ā Flashback Friday is here to bring you some of the finest work from QS's history, with information that still stands the test of time today. Enjoy!

The typical Magic card trading wisdom is something along the lines of ā€œbuy low, sell high.ā€ Others refer to it as ā€œsurvival of the fittest.ā€ There is a ruthless, winner-take-all, zero sum mentality that permeates through the culture from top to bottom. Unfortunately, many small-scale traders take this sort of mentality to heart, and ripping off a new player at the local store is their way to feel like a big-time player in the finance game. This sort of mentality is destructive to the health of the game and communities.

From another perspective, typical ā€œvalueā€ trading grows increasingly difficult to do in a world where pricing information grows increasingly more accurate and obtainable every day. Of all the trades I have done in the last year, only a handful haven’t involved a smartphone on either side checking prices on TCGplayer or one of the various pricing apps in widespread use.

When neither party is able to take advantage of a pricing knowledge gap, trades are likely to be executed fairly in a pure value sense. Also consider that the more the community is aware of prices in general, and the more people are attempting to extract value, there is less value to go around.

Looked at it from either a moral or practical sense, attempting to execute classic value trades by exploiting a card pricing knowledge gap is not a valid strategy. That being said, there is plenty of value to be gained from trading that benefits everyone involved.

When trades are executed at even value, both parties are effectively just moving cards around. From a value perspective, nothing is being accomplished. No value is being gained by either party, but also consider that nothing is being lost. This has some important implications.

Trading Eliminates Transaction Costs

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar Trader

Trading eliminates transaction costs. If two parties can get together and work out a trade where they each get what they want, then everybody wins.

Imagine two cards, X and Y, each worth $10. Now imagine that I want card X for my deck, and you want card Y for your deck. If we get together and trade, and you discover that I have card Y, and I see you have card X, we can make an even trade where everybody wins.

Now, what if we never got together? Maybe I wouldn’t have had any use for card Y, and I would have just buylisted it away for $7. If you couldn’t find card Y in a trade, you’d be forced to spend $10 for card Y online, perhaps plus a shipping cost. If we both acted in this way, then something like $6 or more would vanish from our mutual collections and our community.

In that scenario, trading allowed each of us to turn our cards into something valuable to us, but without losing any value on the transaction. If we each buylisted our cards and then purchased what we needed, then we both were forced to attrition away our value to a third party.

This sort of trading is particularly great for fostering a Magic community at the local level. Assuming the goal of everyone is to play more Magic, more fun and engaging, more deep and dynamic Magic, then having more cards and thus more options makes that happen. Trading allows us to all get what we want and get to playing, and it allows us to keep our card value right in our community, as opposed to bleeding it out to some far-away store.

Trading for Speculation

There was an error retrieving a chart for Trade Routes

Trading is a great way to achieve speculation goals, especially given what we now know about its minimal transaction costs. Trading is an excellent way to change the specific composition of a collection, even if the actual dollar value remains the same after each transaction. If trading just moves cards around between people, then having a goal in mind and strategy to achieve it is important, and speculation is one such strategy.

Speculation is attempting to take advantage of perceived metagame and market fluctuations in the future. In this case, value is created by the forces of time. At the basic level, it means trading for cards that you expect to rise in price in the future, and conversely, it means trading away cards that you expect will fall in price in the future. The best speculative trades are ones that trade away cards expected to fall for cards expected to rise, which accomplishes both goals at the same time.

Trading as a method of speculation requires planning ahead. One must develop a strategy based on their future expectations, which can be tricky, but luckily anyone reading this article has access to the wealth of information available from QuietSpeculation Insider articles and the Insider forums to help make those judgments.

On a practical level, speculative trading requires tailoring a trade binder with speculation goals in mind.

Trading partners will view anything in the binder as up for trade, and no one likes the person who has a binder littered with cards that they ā€œjust aren’t looking to trade right now.ā€ Identify the cards you want to hold for the future, physically remove them from the binder, and store them in place dedicated to your speculative holds. In the trade binder, these cards will only serve to distract trade partners, waste time, and possibly even sabotage your entire trade.

Conversely, stock your trade binder with cards that you are looking to get rid of. If someone is interested in any of those cards, trade them away for anything you expect will maintain value. As time goes on don’t be afraid to trade these away at a discount for cards on the move upwards, because if you are right about your speculation, given enough time your assumptions will be realized and your cards will no longer be worth what they once were. Also, people often discount cards when trading up to expensive high-end cards, so these are perfect candidates for that sort of transaction.

It could be argued that speculation takes advantage of an information gap the same way that value trading does, but in reality, it comes with significant uncertainty and risk. It’s also important to realize that trading partners are acting under their own agency and volition. Their reasons for trading aren’t necessarily in line with yours.

While you may be trading away a card because you think it will be reprinted, they may be trading for it because they need it for a tournament that weekend. You could be trading for a card you think will rise, and they may be trading away part of their old deck so they can construct an EDH deck for their group game with friends. It’s a simplistic explanation, but assuming everyone gets what they came for, it’s win-win.

Trading to Buylist

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Buylisting is the easiest and perhaps the most efficient way to turn cards into cash. For someone who buys large collections for profit, is looking to liquidate or downsize their collection, or incorporates buylisting into their overall Magic finance strategy–or simply needs a little bit of spending cash–trading is an excellent way to achieve buylist goals.

Buylisting is interesting because it is quite variable based on the conditional needs of stores. Two cards may be worth $10, but one might have a buylist price of $8 and another a buylist price of $6. If you are knowledgeable about buylist prices, which Trader Tools 3 puts at your fingertips, then trading can be an excellent way to get the most out of what you have.

Here is a simple example: I trade my $10 card X, which buylists for $6, for your $10 card Y, which buylists for $8. The trade was an even value for both parties, but in a buylist sense I actually netted $2 profit, and that is without sharking someone.

This also opens up the opportunity for sharing this value with a trading partner. If for example, I trade my $10 retail/$6 buylist card for your $9 retail/$7 buylist card, we both made money. It’s also possible to take this value as extra profit, for example by balancing the trade with a $1 retail card. This facet of trading to buylist is especially important to keep in mind when trading up at a discount for a high-end card, because giving away value may actually lead to increased profit.

Trading also an especially excellent way to achieve buylist goals because of its ability to manage the condition of cards. Buylisting at full value requires near-mint if not mint cards, and often many cards in a collection won’t fit the bill. Most trade partners I encounter aren’t too concerned with the condition of cards beyond very glaring damage, usually because they just want cards to play with. Even if the trade partner is concerned with value and places a premium on condition, if the premium is less than the premium the buylist places, the result is still trading played cards for near-mint cards for a net buylist profit. Trading is a great way to turn cards that aren’t in near-mint condition into cards that are near-mint, which ensures the capturing of full buylist value.

Wrapping It Up

Trading need not be a zero-sum game. Both parties can be self-interested, yet both parties can profit. By employing the strategies I shared today, you can get the most out of trading while adding value to your trade partner along the way. What other trading strategies unlock value hidden within cards to the benefit of all involved? Share your thoughts in the comments.

–Adam

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Adam Yurchick

Adam started playing Magic in 1999 at age 12, and soon afterwards he was working his trade binder at school, the mall food court, FNM, and the Junior Super Series circuit. He's a long-time Pro Tour gravy-trainer who has competed in 26 Pro Tours, a former US National Team member, Grand Prix champion, and magic.tcgplayer.com columnist. Follow him at: http://twitter.com/adamyurchick

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Patience & Capital: An Investment Strategy

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Welcome back readers! A few weeks back, I took an increasingly bearish stance towards MTG finance, and mentioned some investing strategies I have been reinforcing on myself in anticipation of an MTG market downturn.

Since writing that piece, there was great news out of the LGS segment of our community. Prerelease and release weekends had overwhelming turnout for Guilds of Ravnica, andĀ several store owners reported on the QS Discord that prerelease sold out entirely. The hype didn’t come as a surprise, given set rotation and new life for the Standard meta, but I’m interested to see if this momentum can continue beyond the Pro Tour in November.

As it is, prices continue to see relief across the broader MTG market while the pockets of increases have been driven mostly by Standard and Modern demand. EDH and Old School have cooled off significantly, and we have been chatting on Twitter and the QS Discord about the outlook for higher-end cards.

The sentiment echoed by many of the most respected and knowledgeable voices on both platforms is that higher-end cards should continue to drop through the holidays before hitting their floor. I have been trying to voice this information to anyone looking to acquire higher-end—especially Reserved List—cards, because I think there is still a little money to be saved by waiting. I have also been using this information to help shape my own investment strategy for the rest of 2018.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

Applying an Age-old ClichƩ

"Patience is a virtue," is a phrase we have all probably heard at least once in our life. For me, this time of the year is always tougher with regard to MTG finance. I don’t speculate much on Standard or Modern, and EDH is usually in a holding pattern while GPs and the Pro Tour garner the attention and dollars of most players.

Because of that, my MTG financing strategy during the winter months focuses on a few areas: EDH cards that are hitting peak supply; no-brainer opportunities at their tipping point; or not spending at all. Patience and discipline during the Standard and Modern season become critical to my investing strategy because EDH tends to drag behind, and speculating on anything other than those formats can take six months or more to realize a profit.

The most important thing I have been asking myself before I make any purchase right now is, ā€œWill I use this card if the spec does not pan out?ā€ If the answer is anything short of a firm ā€œyes,ā€ then I pass on the card. As a result, my purchasing habits have declined dramatically compared to springtime, while my sales volume has picked up quite a bit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crop Rotation

To help refocus my MTG finance efforts, I have made a conscious decision to free up some capital. This has involved buylisting bulk I accrued earlier in the year, while also unloading a good portion of profitable long-term specs I hadn’t previously cashed in on. I want to be prepared if the market downturn opens up attractive entry-points to higher-end cards on my wishlist.

Just last week, I turned an Italian Chains of Mephistopheles originally acquired for $250, and two foil Rayne, Academy Chancellor originally acquired for $8, into Scalding Tarn and Flooded Strand Expeditions via the ABUGames buylist. I loved this move for a couple reasons:

  1. Expeditions are gorgeous and they should be easier to liquidate if I need cash.
  2. Italian Legends has become noticeably more difficult to move as budget (replacement) options have hit a wall in this softer market.

This review of my strategy has allowed me to rebalance my portfolio to a better mix of free cash and price-resistant cards. I have always made it a priority to own more desirable and easier-to-liquidate cards over budget/replacement options like Italian LegendsĀ or certain EDH foils.

Earlier this year, the rising tide lifted everything, and it was okay to pick up Italian Chains of Mephistopheles because the multipliers to the English version were attractive. Unfortunately, holding the Italian version beyond peak demand hurt me because I missed on the peak sell-point. It is in free-fall now, and could settle 25% or more below the high point I could've sold at before it hits its floor.

Remember this important fact when making a tough decision to rotate cards:Ā profit is profit.Ā It is always okay to miss on 20% when you are already up 50%.

If you need capital, and have cards that have been listed for a long time and aren't selling at the new prices established by the bull market earlier this year, I suggest looking for the best buylist option or lowering those prices just a bit and eating a loss.

I want to be clear, though: I am notĀ suggesting to panic-sell, or even to sell at all. I am merely pointing outĀ that manyĀ players and vendors are overextended right now, so having capital available and the patience to wait for a dip on blue chip cards over the coming months is worth considering. My hypothesis is the patient and savvy investors who are able to acquire desirables on the dip will be in for nice profits on the same cards in 2019.

Investment Plan

I have been running lean on specs the past two months or so, but I am always keeping an eye out for cards with short- or long-term potential. Here are the notables I picked up over the past two weeks:

Soul-Scar Mage

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul-Scar Mage

Affectionately called ā€œSSM,ā€ this card keeps popping up in random Modern chatter I see on social media, and it’s one I couldn’t ignore any longer. By the time this article goes live, I suspect near mint foil copies will be all but gone on the internet. There are a couple at $6.99 on CardKingdom, but for the most part the new price-point on them is showing up closer to $10.

Played foils are still available on TCGplayer under $5 at the time of writing, so if you think you could see yourself running a Red Deck Wins concept with Soul-Scar Mage as part of the package, I would consider grabbing them.

I don’t like the non-foil version as much; it is sitting around $2 already, and in my best estimate it will take a great performance at GP Atlanta (or more solid MTGO results to post) before that needle can move higher.

Second Harvest

There was an error retrieving a chart for Second Harvest

With the release ofĀ Guilds of Ravnica, EDH token strategies received a huge boost to their arsenal. March of Multitudes, Divine Visitation, Trostani Discordant, and Emmara, Soul of the Accord all come to mind.

Knowing this,Ā I am surprised Second Harvest hasn’t moved higher already. At the time of writing this, near mint foils can still be had under $2 on TCGplayer, while CardKingdom has three in stock at $1.99. Inventory does appear to be waning and I won’t be surprised if foils are selling for $5 in a few weeks. If you need a foil copy or simply want a good spec to add to your portfolio, now is a great time to grab these. They won't stay this cheap for much longer.

Ever After

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ever After

On a per-mana basis, the value of Ever After is outstanding. Most reanimation effects require five mana to get one creature back to the battlefield. With Ever After, you get two for six. It is important to note the creatures have to be from your graveyard which limits the upside a bit in EDH. The card is also put back into the library instead of into the graveyard after being cast; this small note can have some relevance, positively or negatively, depending on your deck’s capabilities.

I decided to add one of these to my Dragons EDH deck. I grabbed a handful of additional foil copies (all at $1 or less) to add to my spec binder. I think this one will take about six months to mature, minimum, but I also felt for $1 a piece I could do worse. I would not recommend going deep on this one, but I do think it has a very safe floor.

Bonus Card (Watch List Only)

Insult // Injury

There was an error retrieving a chart for Insult

I will start by saying I found this one late into my writing and do not believe it is actionable without a little more data and research to back it. That said, the ability to doubleĀ your damage output for a turn seems ridiculously powerful.

I have noticed this card show up as a one-of in a handful of Modern Burn lists recently (all experimental), and I also couldn’t help but think how powerful this card would be in certain EDH builds as a wincon. I wouldn’t go deep on this one by any means, but it’s a good card to add to your watchlist.

Wrapping Up

Whatever your investing strategy is for MTG finance, I personally advise trying to free up capital in advance of the holiday months. The combination of overextended vendors, Standard and Modern owning the spotlight, and the year-end push for sales goals, should create a perfect storm of opportunity for savvy and patient investors. I believe higher-end cards which pushed to record highs earlier in 2018 will have attractive new entry-points by December.

Over the past two months, I have personally focused on turning over my portfolio and generating free cash flow and store credit in the process. I plan to monitor cards on the higher end of the market closely, and acquire any staples that fit my strategy and hit my target entry-points. I feel this will give me the best chance at owning cards I will be happy to use, while also being well-positioned for another bounce in 2019 should the market pick back up. Worst case, I will own a lot of cards I enjoy and that are relatively price-resistant should I need to liquidate for any reason.

As a reminder, Edward Eng and I will be co-hosting the second installment of Office Hours for QS Insiders at 9 p.m. eastern time on the QS Discord. We will try to answer any MTG finance questions you may have, so please Insiders, come prepared! If you are not an Insider, I highly recommend signing up and giving it a try.

That’s it for today! Talk to you on the QS Discord or Twitter (@ChiStyleGaming)!

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #16

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There was some pretty cool stuff that happened this past weekend at the SCG Dallas Open. The winner, Peter Hollman, put Four-Color Death’s Shadow and Tarmogoyf back on the map. And the runner-up, Ian Thorne, along with well-known players like Zac Elsik and Pieter Tubergen, proved Creeping Chill is the real deal in Modern Dredge.

We also saw Evart Moughon showcase some creativity with Arclight Phoenix—which I mentioned in article #14—outside of Standard, taking it to a 16th place finish with his Izzet Spells deck. And Zan Syed took Humans to another level by putting Tormod's Crypt in the sideboard, as he and others expected Dredge to show up in numbers at the tournament. It was a good prediction.

Meanwhile, Standard has still been a little stagnant, with Golgari decks continuing to beat up the field. But as always, the need to stay ahead of the metagame exists.

Article Series Main Focus Points

  • Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  • Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Modern: Izzet Spells by Evart Moughon

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Thing in the Ice
2 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Non-Creature Spells

4 Fiery Temper
4 Izzet Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
2 Thought Scour
4 Faithless Looting
1 Insult
4 Serum Visions

Lands

1 Island
3 Mountain
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Spirebluff Canal
3 Steam Vents

Sideboard

3 Dragon's Claw
2 Izzet Staticaster
2 Alpine Moon
2 Abrade
2 Dispel
4 Surgical Extraction

Recent Sells

Shriekhorn - Mirrodin Besieged (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shriekhorn

Sold Price
$5

I mentioned this as a Fold in article #15. Was I correct with my prediction in the uptick of Dredge in Modern? Yes. Was I took quick to sell these? Maybe. Is it wrong to lock in some profit? No.

These have spiked to about $10-12 now. If you have these and aren’t using them, you might as well sell into the hype and get them again if you need them when they’re reprinted.

Seekers’ Squire - Ixalan (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seekers' Squire

Purchased Price
$1.50

This was also mentioned as a Fold in article #15. I stuck to my word and sold a couple of extra sets I had lying around, as this will probably never see play outside of Standard.

Here’s a buylist order I placed with Card Kingdom on Sunday, October 21.

Some of these cards weren’t in near mint condition so the total will definitely be less than $136. But a lot of those cards have been rotting in my trade binder and boxes in a closet, so I decided to get rid of them to turn the cash into something more useful. I didn’t want to go through the hassle of trying to sell these cards on eBay, TCGplayer, or Facebook. I went with Card Kingdom, which, from my experience, has been a decent place to buylist cards.

Recent Buys

Tempest Djinn - Dominaria (Prerelease Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tempest Djinn

Purchased Price
$2.71

I picked up a set of these because the Standard Mono-Blue deck might have some legs. Take a look at Crash_CZ’s 5-0 list from Magic Online.

Standard: Mono-Blue Aggro by Crash_CZ

Creatures

2 Exclusion Mage
4 Merfolk Trickster
4 Mist-Cloaked Herald
2 Nightveil Sprite
4 Siren Stormtamer
4 Tempest Djinn
2 Warkite Marauder

Non-Creature Spells

2 Chart a Course
2 Dive Down
3 Essence Scatter
2 Spell Pierce
4 Wizard's Retort
4 Curious Obsession

Lands

21 Island

Sideboard

1 Dive Down
3 Diamond Mare
2 Disdainful Stroke
3 Negate
1 Sentinel Totem
2 Sleep
3 Syncopate

And although Travis Woo is banned, he still plays online and posts stuff in the Magic for Good Facebook group, including a recent post featuring this same list. This list also includes Disdainful Stroke in the sideboard, which was mentioned in article #11. And worst-case scenario I can buylist them to Card Kingdom for $2.50 cash or $3.25 store credit if I decide not to use them.

Creeping Chill - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Creeping Chill

Purchased Price
$5.99

$5.99 is a pretty high entry point, but I didn’t have a playset yet so I bought one just to have it. As I already mentioned above, the card is definitely the real deal. So having a playset of these if you want to play Dredge isn’t too bad.

However, with that said, it really only goes in Dredge right now. Thus, I don’t know how much higher this can go. If you need or want them, get them as they’ll probably hold value for quite a while. If you don’t need or want them, sell into the hype just like with Shriekhorn foils.

Sentinel Totem - Ixalan (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sentinel Totem

Purchased Price
$0.99

The Mono-Blue list posted above has been running 1-2 Sentinel Totem in the sideboard. It also shows up once in a while in Mono-Red and Boros lists. At the very least, it’s an option for any deck to deal with pesky cards like Rekindling Phoenix, Arclight Phoenix, jump-start cards, and Golgari decks that utilize the graveyard.

Also mentioned above, was Zan Syed’s innovation to add Tormod's Crypt to his Modern Humans deck to combat Dredge and other decks that abuse the graveyard like Storm, Living End, and Control.

Now, is the scry 1 good enough to warrant playing Sentinel Totem at the cost of an extra generic mana and exiling both graveyards? I highly doubt it. But maybe I’m wrong. With that said, $0.99 is pretty cheap for a card that can slot into pretty much any deck’s sideboard.

Mistcaller - Core Set 2019 (Foil)

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Purchased Price
$2

Corbin Hosler recently wrote on TCGplayer about Nikachu’s Merfolk deck that he’s been doing decent with in Modern, which features Mistcaller instead of Cursecatcher. Granted, both of these players are diehard Merfolk fans, so I would proceed with a bit of caution here. However, that doesn’t mean the deck is terrible.

As a matter of fact, as I take at the deck a little more, there’s actually a Wizards sub-theme in the deck. Something like Wizard's Retort might be a better option than Deprive in the sideboard and might even be good enough to eventually make it into the maindeck, since both Merfolk Trickster and Aether Vial give you added flexibility. Does that also mean Harbinger of the Tides needs to make its way back into the deck? I’m not so sure yet.

Anyhow, $2 for this Merfolk Wizard that could potentially become the go-to one-drop for the deck is relatively inexpensive. It seems like a pretty useful card compared to Cursecatcher with all the decks in Modern right now that are looking to cheat creatures into play from the graveyard like Dredge, Hollow One, Living End, and Bridgevine.

And as a bonus, the Open House promo version of Silvergill Adept is also around $2.

Accumulated Knowledge - Masters 25 (Foil)

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Purchased Price
$0.75

Gul_Dukat came in first place of the Magic Online Legacy Challenge on October 22. If you look a bit closer, there are four other Miracles players that also ran a playset of Accumulated Knowledge in their lists. It sure looks like Miracles is on the rise again, even without Sensei's Divining Top.

Legacy: Miracles by Gul_Dukat

Creatures

2 Monastery Mentor
2 Snapcaster Mage

Non-Creature Spells

1 Flusterstorm
2 Predict
2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Accumulated Knowledge
4 Brainstorm
4 Swords to Plowshares
1 Portent
1 Council's Judgment
3 Terminus
3 Preordain
4 Ponder
2 Back to Basics
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
1 Volcanic Island
1 Tundra
3 Plains
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Flooded Strand
5 Island

Sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
3 Pyroblast
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Counterbalance
1 Celestial Purge
2 Flusterstorm
1 Council's Judgment
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Volcanic Island

But be careful, as demand from one deck in Legacy alone won’t cut it. However, Accumulated Knowledge also pops up in the occasional Landstill and High Tide decks. There’s a small chance the popularity of the card in Miracles will spark more interest to play the card, since it looks at both graveyards and pitches to Force of Will.

The other thing to notice is that it also sees play in blue Pauper decks.

The Masters 25 foils are pretty cheap compared to the Nemesis foils and FNM promos which all have the same artwork, so there’s potential for this version to spike a little bit.

Fiery Temper - FNM Promos

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Purchased Price
$0.35

This one is a bit tough because there are five foil versions with two of them being promos. But the main thing is that this card is starting to see more play in Modern alongside Arclight Phoenix and Runaway Steam-Kin thanks to Faithless Looting, a.k.a. theĀ red Brainstorm as Ben Friedman has once said.

Check out MentalMisstep’s Phoenix Burn deck.

Modern: Phoenix Burn by MentalMisstep

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Goblin Electromancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

1 Gut Shot
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Risk Factor
4 Manamorphose
4 Fiery Temper
4 Chart a Course
4 Faithless Looting

Lands

1 Stomping Ground
1 Island
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Steam Vents
4 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Spirebluff Canal

Sideboard

2 Tormod's Crypt
4 The Flame of Keld
1 Surgical Extraction
3 Spell Pierce
2 Grim Lavamancer
3 Ancient Grudge

Watchlist

Diamond Mare - Core Set 2019 (Foil)

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Observed Price
$2.5

This has been showing up in the sideboard in a lot of the mono-colored decks in Standard. Supply seems pretty low on TCGplayer too. Sadly though, I don’t think this will see play in Modern or Eternal.

Adventurous Impulse - Dominaria (Foil)

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Observed Price
$1-2

This card, however, is starting to see play outside of Standard. Take a look at this short list of decks, which could grow over time. It’s a one-drop that does a decent job at making sure you hit your land drops early, while mitigating flood and digging for your powerful threats.

Llanowar Elves - Open House Promos

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Observed Price
$7

This card has been printed into oblivion since we first saw it in Alpha. But this is probably one of the coolest promo versions that Wizards has printed. This has been out for a few months now, so I don’t see this going too much lower. And even if it does, I doubt it will ever drop past $5. On the flip side, I see this slowly increasing in value over time and never looking back.

Soul-Scar Mage - Amonkhet (Foil)

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Observed Price
$5-8

This just rotated out of Standard and hasn’t seen a whole lot of play in Modern or Legacy yet. But that could change over time since it’s a one-drop with prowess which plays nicely with the cheap, powerful spells in both of those formats. I would keep an eye on this one. If the price drops to $2-3, I would definitely pick up a few playsets.

Mass Hysteria - Mirrodin (Foil)

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Observed Price
$6-8

Here’s another interesting card. This has steadily risen over time but I’m not really sure where demand has been coming from prior to something like Runaway Steam-Kin. And even then, I haven’t seen it in a list with the two cards together. However, I could see an updated Mono-Red Runaway list with Mass Hysteria, Insolent Neonate, and Empty the Warrens joining the party. But that’s just a brewer’s idea for now.

Office Hours

I’ll be co-hosting Quiet Speculation’s Office Hours again. This will be the second time. You can catch the audio of the inaugural session with Sigmund Ausfresser and me here in case you missed it. Christopher Martin will be joining me for the second session. It’s set for today at 8pm Central, so mark your calendars and join us in the Discord channel.

Summary

Recent Sells

  • Shriekhorn - Mirrodin Besieged (Foil)
  • Seekers' Squire - Ixalan (Foil)

Recent Buys

  • Tempest Djinn - Dominaria (Prerelease Foil)
  • Creeping Chill - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)
  • Sentinel Totem - Ixalan (Foil)
  • Mistcaller - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Accumulated Knowledge - Masters 25 (Foil)
  • Fiery Temper - FNM Promos

Watchlist

  • Diamond Mare - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Adventurous Impulse - Dominaria (Foil)
  • Llanowar Elves - Open House Promos
  • Soul-Scar Mage - Amonkhet (Foil)
  • Mass Hysteria - Mirrodin (Foil)

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ā€˜Em & Fold ā€˜Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Daily Stock Watch – Mutavault (GP FOIL)

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Modern has been fairly quiet and prices have been dropping left and right so we'd like to take a peek at what we could speculate on while the prices are low enough for us to hedge our bets on. Today's featured card is supposedly a staple in aggro decks, but Spirits is excelling without it and this is what has been stopping it from exploding out of the gates financially. I have a soft spot for foil cards that could be worth more given the right time, and I still have hopes for this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mutavault

I'd like to particularly focus on the Grand Prix Promo of this card for today's segment as this has already dipped to its all-time low of $11.36 as of writing time, and I do think that it deserves a way better price tag than this in the future. Gone are the days when Merfolk could just lord over other aggro decks with its tempo-based approach that allows Mutavault to be a lethal threat that's quite hard to catch with removals. Today, decks such as Humans, Hardened Modular, and Red Deck Wins are the more popular aggro approach decks that player resort to and none of them have any interest in having Mutavault on their lists.

One particular deck that has shown some need for Mutavault is Spirits (although the Bant archetype of it has been more successful thanks to Collected Company) where UW lists still have two to four copies of the card on their 75. Here's a list that's still showing some love for Mutavault.

UW Spirits

Creatures

1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Remorseful Cleric
1 Nebelgast Herald
2 Selfless Spirit
2 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Rattlechains
3 Phantasmal Image
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Drogskol Captain
4 Spell Queller
4 Supreme Phantom

Other Spells

1 Vapor Snag
1 Spell Pierce
4 Path to Exile
4 Aether Vial

Lands

1 Misty Rainforest
1 Windswept Heath
1 Ghost Quarter
2 Moorland Haunt
2 Mutavault
3 Plains
3 Island
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Flooded Strand

Sideboard

1 Worship
2 Stony Silence
1 Steel of the Godhead
1 Runed Halo
2 Rest in Peace
1 Negate
1 Kor Firewalker
1 Dispel
1 Disenchant
2 Damping Sphere
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Spell Pierce

Mutavault acts like a one to cast spirit in this deck with the capability of going extra big with the bonuses that spirit lords such as Drogskol Captain and Supreme Phantom could give. It benefits a lot from the hexproof bonus that the captain provides as it becomes a sneaky threat that is hard to time with the best removals in the format. It's just sad to see that the more successful Spirits build have focused more on its midrange prowess that aims to finish games by pushing with its threats off a well-timed Collected Company. The need to balance out its mana base made Mutavault dispensable, as it would be hard to support a three color deck by including a colorless mana source. I still think though that this land will gain its financial value over time. I am quite interested to pick it up now that it's being undervalued in the market.

Sleeping Lands

Man lands are some of the best things ever created in the game in my opinion as they keep your opponents guessing and on their heels at every point of the game where they could act as legal threats. Most prominent in ending games on this list is arguably Inkmoth Nexus in my opinion, especially in the Hardened Modular list where it could do the trick in three turns. Mutavault is the most efficient to be included in any list because of its activation cost and built-in ability to be every creature type possible.Ā  This is the reason why I think that this is a good pickup now as it will soon be a $20 card again that foil lovers would be looking for.

At the moment, the GP Foil Promo of Mutavault is available via TCGPlayer, StarCityGames and Card Kingdom for anywhere between $9.30 up to $13.99. I would love to get my hands on copies under $10 (probably three to five playsets) and wait for it to reach $15-$20 in the coming year. Guilds of Ravnica has shown some love for aggro decks with some really nice additions, so we could probably expect the same from Ravnica Allegiance. We could be in for a pretty surprise there so keep your eyes and ears open!

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Daily Stock Watch – Vanquisher’s Banner

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! The Standard market has been very active as of late, and it has pretty much lived up to what we expected in the wake of the arrival of a new set. There are brews of new archetypes and upgrades of old ones, but not everything has been consistent as the meta shapes up. One welcome addition to the competitive scene is the rise of what are deemed to be casual cards financially, and the implications that it has to the current scene at the same time. Today's featured card belongs to that category, although it also looks promising for other formats outside Standard.

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Coat of Arms was pretty popular back in the day as it could put your deck over the top with just three to four tribal creatures in play. The same could not be said for Vanquisher's Banner but it gives you that power to draw cards which allows for continuity in case you can't overpower your opponent with what you have in play. The latest reincarnation of Elves in Standard hasn't proven its worth just yet, but it could make a case for something that could be considered going forward as new sets fill the Standard vacuum. For a reference of how the list looks like, here's one that we could use as a model.

Standard Elves

Creatures

4 Beast Whisperer
4 Marwyn, the Nurturer
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Elvish Clancaller
4 Druid of the Cowl
4 Steel Leaf Champion
4 Pelt Collector
4 Thorn Lieutenant

Other Spells

4 Adventurous Impulse
4 Vanquisher's Banner

Lands

20 Forest

Sideboard

2 Vivien Reid
4 Vine Mare
3 Shapers' Sanctuary
3 Reclamation Sage
3 Diamond Mare

The deck looks promising with the tribal concept, but Standard is ran amok right now by Golgari and Boros Angels which could both wipe out our elf friends in one fell swoop. The platoon of removals at Golgari's disposal and Deafening Clarion could just ruin the day for a creature-based strategy like this one, which could be off to a very bad start if we miss out on a turn one Llanowar Elves or Pelt Collector. One thing you could count on this deck though is the steady pressure it will apply given the correct draw, and powering out Vanquisher's Banner before our opponents could answer our threats should be good enough to keep flooding your board with weapons to win the game. It also helps that Beast Whisperer does something of the same caliber as the banner, which then allows you to have tremendous card advantage in match ups where creatures and not spells could win games.

Standard Elves

There should be lots of tribes in the format that could try the power that the banner has to offer (I remember featuring saproling-powered decks before with Tendershoot Dryad) but I do think that the elves has the biggest potential to break through because it could power it out faster than any other tribe could. It is no Glimpse of Nature for sure but the power boost it gives, along with the drawing prowess, makes it a good card for Commander. It's current all-time high of $5 is a bit justified for me, and I still see room for growth. Ixalan won't be opened much in the coming months for sure so I would be very interested in getting my copies now before some insane brew happens and this skyrockets out of the gate. It's better that we act now than later on when the window of opportunity has passed.

At the moment, you could get copies of Vanquisher's Banner from online stores such as TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom for anywhere between $3.90 up to $6.49 while StarCityGames is already out of stock at $5.99. The foil version of the card isn't fetching a very huge a price right now so that's an indicator that there isn't much interest in formats outside Standard right now. I would be glad to clean up all copies under $4 that I could get my hands on and sit on it till it peaks at $8-$10 during the course of the season. It's a low risk, decent reward investment that should be paying off in the future. Let's carry the banner!

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Fighting Control: A Beginner’s Guide

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The Beginner's Guide series offers advice to new to Modern players and dispels common myths about the format's workings. This week, inspired by some consistent misplays I've observed, I am going to be tackling Modern's control decks. There appears to be a perception that they're something to tread carefully around. But control is just another archetype, and there's no reason to play scared.

Blue-based control is one of the top-performing archetypes in Modern right now. Some even say UW ControlĀ is the best deck in Modern. Regardless, top-tier control decks are a fairly recent addition to the metagame. Consequently, Modern players don't have much experience playing against Modern control decks. Standard players have a leg up on Modern in this regard, as control decks have been top-tier for some time. However, the experience doesn't translate well, as the strategies differ dramatically.

The recent version of Standard UW Control is almost entirely reactive. It piled answers and card draw on top of each other, winning by looping Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. Modern's control decks also play lots of answers and card advantage, but they're more about buying time and space to land a win condition and then ride it to victory. This difference in strategy means that players relying on their Standard experience are playing the matchups wrong.

Know Thy Enemy

The classic aggro/control dichotomy says that aggro decks try to actively win the game while control seeks to prolong the game. Alternatively, aggro wants to end the game by winning, while control functionally wins the game, and then ends the game as an afterthought.

CompareĀ Dominaria Standard UW Control to Modern UW. The Standard deck has a wide variety of hard answers and 5-8 sweepers. The Modern decks lean heavily on 4 Terminus, 4 Path to Exile, and a few counters. Standard has at most three Teferi and two Approach of the Second Sun to actually win the game, while Modern has 3-4 Celestial Colonnade, 4-5 planeswalkers, 2 Snapcaster Mage, and occasionally some number of Vendilion Clique. Standard plays a variety of card draw spells; Modern is dependent on cantrips and Search for Azcanta.

This difference in strategy is critical to understanding how to play against Modern control. Standard UW is a truer control deck than Modern. The answers in Standard may be less efficient than in Modern, but it plays more of them and wins well after the game is won. Modern is about precisely using tools to exhaust the opponent, dropping a win condition, and then protecting it as would a tempo deck. Terminus tucks creatures back into the library; they're not gone for good, and in a long game will return. The goal is to stall the game long enough for Jace or Teferi to take over and convince the opponent things are hopeless, but not so long that Terminus-returned creatures start to matter. Standard in contrast is perfectly capable of actually answering everything, drawing its entire deck, and winning by naturally decking their opponent, a control ideal.

What Matters

Time is the critical factor when playing against control, both in the literal sense (as especially in control mirrors, the game clock can become a factor) and the mechanical sense (regarding tempo and resources). Modern players must restrict control's clock and force them to take the initiative. Doing anything else is allowing control to execute its ideal gameplan. If it can be avoided, never give control players extra time.

Counterspell Conundrum

Counterspells are a relatively recent addition to Modern control. While Jeskai has always hung around, Grixis was the control deck of choice for years. Combined with Jund's prevalence, counterspells took a back seat to targeted discard for years in slower decks, which may have caused players to forget how to play against permission.

Never play around counterspells unless there is a definite and advantageous strategic reason to do so. Specifically, correctly playing around counters requires that 1) waiting makes the counter a dead card,Ā and/or 2) it advantages you more than the control player. This is especially true of the early game. Fear of having a spell countered is largely irrational, and the more time provided to a control deck, the more likely it is to win. Playing around Mana Leak makes no sense if the card will never be rendered dead, or if doing so inhibits advancing your own gameplan. Scaring opponents into inaction is far more powerful thanĀ actuallyĀ countering anything. Therefore, most decks should treat opposing counters as situational removal rather than disruption, and just play their spells.

Some decks can play around counters by playing through them, such as UW Spirits playing Aether Vial and Cavern of Souls and Jund using discard to clear the road for threats. Their design makes playing around correct. However, most decks can only play around counters by just waiting for a better opportunity to play their spells. Unless said deck has crafted its strategy to force such a gamestate, the plan is unlikely to work. When not under pressure, control is free to draw cards and play lands, which is all it wants to do, and isn't likely to create an opening on its own.

Burn is a master of forcing control to tap out and generate that opening. After the initial flurry of spells, if Burn has control under ten life, it can just wait until it can cast multiple instants on control's endstep, draw out all the counters, and then finish with sorceries on its own turn. Thus, the control player must tap out to win the game first, which naturally gives Burn the opening to finish the job. Since most decks can't put this kind of pressure on control and therefore can't gain significant advantage by waiting, they shouldn't worry about playing into counters.

Take Advantage

Another reason not to fear counters is that the control player probably doesn't have one. Counterspells may be more popular and prevalent now than they have been before, but UWx only plays around eight, of which four are the expensive Cryptic Command. Odds are there was no point in playing around the counter in the first place. Even if they do counter a spell, it will probably be a favorable mana exchange and therefore to your advantage. A second reason is every counter spent early is one not spent later. Trading Leak for Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is a fairly neutral exchange, but Leaking Primeval Titan is devastating. Let control counter the cheap spells so they can't counter the game winners!

The final reason to just jam into counters is that even if the control player has them, the may just let it go. I and every other control player inĀ Magic has died at least once to spells they could have countered but did not because we wanted to get more value countering something better. Control decks are full of answers, so it seems reasonable to let that otherwise useless Reflector Mage through because you'll just Lightning Bolt it later. Cue the end of the game where I used all my removal killing subsequent threats and died to the Mage with three counters in hand. Just jam spells at the control deck; they may flinch and let you win.

Know Thyself

The other half of playing against control depends on your own deck. In the classic world of Who's the Beatdown, one deck is the aggressor while the other defends. Control decks are built to be defensive, but that doesn't mean they have to be. It is possible and in fact optimal to force control out of its comfort zone. When that isn't possible, it's critical to understand how the matchup actually works, and to play to your deck's strengths. Oftentimes, it's best to just put your head down and charge right at control. This is not a great strategy as Modern control decks assume that will happen and are built accordingly. However, depending on the deck, it may be the only option.

In this section, we'll look at ways each macro-archetype can navigate control matchups.

Aggro

For the guaranteed aggressor in a match, the keys to victory lie with exploiting strategic holes in the control deck and with properly managing pressure. The former key is dictated by how the control deck is built. Every deck has blind spots, and if the aggressive deck has the option to play into them, it should. The latter is about keeping control on the back foot in the face of removal and sweepers.

Classic Affinity vs Jeskai Control should be a slaughter. Affinity is filled with tiny creatures that die to one-for-one removal, and Jeskai plays nothing but cheap removal. There are very few cards that actually threaten Jeskai on their own, so Jeskai can afford to be judicious with its removal and clean up the Memnites and Vault Skirges once the Arcbound Ravagers and Signal Pests are gone. However, most Jeskai lists only have two Supreme Verdicts, which are the only ways it can remove resolved Etched Champion. Thus, the matchup is actually about forcing Jeskai to use its counters and Verdicts on non-Champions. If Affinity succeeds in doing that, it can steal an easy win.

There's also the classic playing-around-sweepers strategy. Holding extra creatures to rebuild the board after Wrath of God is a tried-and-true technique. However, it's extremely contextual. The trick is to use enough resources to force control's hand by actually threatening a kill. A common strategy is to use enough cards to put control dead on board, with leeway for a removal spell, and then hold back. Should control hit Terminus, aggro should be able to threaten lethal the turn afterwards. For this reason, counterspells and the aggro-control archetype have a long and successful history against control.

Not every deck can afford to hold back, as their clock isn't robust enough. Merfolk can definitely play around sweepers because lords make weak creatures good, but 8-Whack cannot. It needs a critical mass of weak creatures plus an enabler to do anything worthwhile. Unless it can explode twice, 8-Whack is better off pretending sweepers don't exist. Just as with counterspells, aggro should only play around sweepers if it can meaningfully rebuild.

Combo

Combo decks tend to have polarized strategies against control. Some, like Ironworks, must win very quickly, while Ad Nauseam can afford to wait until the last minute. The distinction is interaction. Completely uninteractive combos need to sneak their key pieces through, while interactive combos can protect themselves and ensure the win. Knowing how to play depends on the type of combo deck.

Ironworks must land a Krark-clan Ironworks and eventually Scrap Trawler to win. It has no relevant maindeck interaction, and so has to try to sneak its pieces into play and hope the control deck has no answer. Smart sequencing and using bait spells is therefore essential for success. While these types of combo decks can and frequently do have counters of their own post-board, packing too many risks diluting the combo and making it hard to go off. Ironworks solves this problem with a transformational board featuring Sai, Master Thopterist. These decks must prioritize speed over resilience and mulligan aggressively.

At the opposite end is Ad Nauseam. While perfectly capable of fast wins, Ad Nauseam doesn't have to rush against control because it plays Pact of Negation and combos at instant speed. It can simply wait and sculpt its hand and mana until it can either go off through counters or go off twice. Post-board, it has more counters and Boseiju, Who Shelters All to ensure victory. This type of combo forces control into the aggressive role by seizing theĀ inevitability, and so can afford to keep slower, interactive hands.

A very simple tool that used to be the primary combo plan against control, but has now fallen out of favor, is Gigadrowse. Having that card allows any combo deck to take its time, hold inevitability, and win with certainty when used on the opponent's end step to take them off blue mana for counterspells. I still see and use Gigadrowse in Storm, but the card is very rare anywhere else. It's a brute-force but tough-to-disrupt solution for decks that really struggle against permission.

Control

Control vs control is often billed as the most skill intensiveĀ MagicĀ there is. To some extent that's true, and I often act with that assumption, but that most strongly applies to true 75-card mirrors. The key to control-on-control matches centers on knowing what actually matters and leveraging whatever differentiates the two decks against that thing.

Esper and Jeskai Control often have the advantage against UW because they can use discard and burn respectively to dictate the flow of the game. In the former match, the game becomes about card advantage, as Esper's discard either strips relevant cards from UW or clears the road to resolve its own spells, forcing UW to find the right answers or die. In the latter, life total matters, since Jeskai is able to gradually whittle down UW with burn spells. The onus is on UW to either change the field of battle or win first.

One of the greatest examples of control-mirror mastery is the 2002 World Championships. Carlos Romao won because he understood the Psychatog mirror better than everyone else. Psychatog was a UB control deck packed with counters and card advantage which won by casting Upheaval, then Psychatog with floating mana. The accepted strategy was to counter all the card draw spells to prevent the opponent assembling the combo. Carlos and his team realized that doing so used up counters that could answer the combo. Instead, he saved his counters for the few win conditions his opponents had, and enjoyed a very easy run to the championship. Don't always fight the fight your opponent wants; pick what your deck is best at and leverage that aspect against the opponent.

Victory Is Assured

Control decks have a reputation for being hard to play against, and while this can be true, it doesn't have to be. The fear that reputation creates is so potent that players attempt to play around control. Sometimes this mindset is fine because the deck can fight on equal terms, but frequently, it just plays into control's strengths by giving it more time. As a result, players need to evaluate their decks and play without letting a fear of control dictate the matchup.

Daily Stock Watch – Arclight Phoenix

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a newĀ week of the Daily Stock Watch! Guilds of Ravnica continues to bring us some pleasant surprises as it continues to balance out its financial value by providing us with more gainers and potential sleepers. Assassin's Trophy has started dipping as expected, and there aren't enough reasons for nowĀ for us to believe that it will regain its bearing as the hype has died down. In the wake of its decline, another surprise has emerged in the form of today's featured card which has been a revelation to a lot who didn't see this coming (myself included!)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

It was a $2 card that looked like one of the crap mythics of the set when out of nowhere, Runaway Steam-Kin made it look like a superstar. There have been Standard brews that tries to explore the advantage that this card possesses, but a Modern list looked better as its new home. I would have loved to see this work in a Mardu shell that could revive one of the more loved decks in the format, but I think that it works best in this list that's fueled by everything that has burn written all over it.

Arclight Burn

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Runaway Steam-Kin

Other Spells

2 Gut Shot
3 Risk Factor
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Manamorphose
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Fiery Temper
2 Tormenting Voice
3 Lava Spike
4 Faithless Looting

Lands

18 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
2 Shrine of Burning Rage
3 Dragon's Claw
2 Blood Moon
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Abrade
1 Risk Factor

I would have loved to see Simian Spirit Guide on this list just so we could go off with card]Runaway Steam-Kin[/card] on turn one, and go bananas with tons of damage on turn two, but it would be best to start the experiments with this build. Depending on an alive Steam-Kin on turn three seems like a farfetched idea for me in a world filled with Lightning Bolt. Path to Exile, and Fatal Push but if you manage to pull it off out of nowhere, your opponent is in a world of trouble. Arclight Phoenix would be the gravy to your strategy that would be built around a sturdy Steam-Kin, some burn spells to the dome, and Bedlam Reveler to make sure you don't run out of gas. Somehow, this looks like a very backbreaking strategy on paper, but I don't like the chances of this deck to go all the way in a competitive tournament. It may or may not be as resilient and as threatening as stock Burn, but there's plenty of promise to make this strategy work going forward.

Guilds of Ravnica Mythics

These are the mythics from GRN that I think would have financial implications in the near future when things get discovered or broken in other formats such as Legacy and Commander. I'm keeping a close eye on March of the Multitudes and Thousand-Year Storm in particular, as their foils continue to demand huge prices in the market and have a strong following. Arclight Phoenix looks like a better fit in multiples for competitive play and if history is to be followed, we are supposed to invest on the normal copies of this card instead of the foil ones for more profit and easier access to disposal. If you were able to get a hold of the phoenix since day one, you should be cashing out real soon.

At the moment, you could find copies of Arclight Phoenix from online stores such as StarCityGames, Card Kingdom, and TCGPlayer vendors for anywhere between $11.99 to $14.99, while foil copies are just a shade above $20. I would be interested to acquire them for $10 or less and cash out at $18-$20, as I see this card as more of a hype thing than a successful spec. I love how old decks have resurfaced in the Modern metagame thanks to cards from GRN (hello, Dredge and Creeping Chill!) but I don't think that we'd see the list anytime soon that would push this card and its new deck over the top. There's plenty of room for growth and speculation on this card but I'd say don't go all in on it. There's lot of potential, but I don't see the need to build around it. There are always better ways to win in the same fashion as this one.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Interaction Between the Global Economy and MTG Finance

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This week I want to start off with an announcement for all Quiet Speculation Insiders. If you enjoyed the Office Hours Q&A Podcast hosted by Edward Eng and myself last month, then make sure to tune into the Discord this Thursday, October 25th at 9pm Eastern Time. We will be having our second Office Hours session, this time hosted by QS writers Edward Eng and Chris Martin!

This is your chance to ask your questions and get information most directly applicable to your situation. So please tune in and check it out if you’re available!

Switching gears to this week’s topic, I want to spend a little time discussing potential correlations between the Magic market and the global economy.

I've written about these possible interactions in the past, and with the recent market pullback, now is a good time to remind folks that the interplay between the stock market and the Magic market is not so strong. One market pullback of a few percent does not equate to a comparable pullback in your dual lands and Modern staples.

(Click to expand.)
There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

That said, there are a few times when the global economy can impact Magic prices, but it requires a certain scenario to play out. This week I’ll go over three such circumstances that may have impacted Magic prices in the past. Hopefully the extremities of these scenarios will help calm down the more fragile investors as they watch stock market volatility soar through the roof.

Scenario 1: The Cryptocurrency Fad

Is it too soon to call the cryptocurrency craze a fad? Perhaps, but the lack of movement in currencies such as Bitcoin suggests the hype is severely curtailed.

(Click to expand.)

I suppose these assets could once again catch the hype train and soar higher. But until then, it looks like they’re fairly stuck. What does that mean for Magic, though?

First of all, while Bitcoin soared last winter, there were a few noteworthy MTG finance people who were looking to move their Magic cards into Bitcoin. Numerous Facebook posts appeared on the High End Facebook group asking for such transactions. This formed a connection between Magic cards and the cryptocurrency market. Thus, if cryptocurrencies rose higher, there would be more liquidity available to purchase Magic cards with. Demand rose and with it went prices.

Beyond this, there are also all the rumors—that big time investors were cashing out of Bitcoin near the highs to move into Reserved List cards. I can’t prove these rumors definitively, but I believe them myself. Even if they weren’t true, the mere mention of them could have spurned people to buy more cards out of fear that they may dry up from the market due to crypto billionaires getting their hands on an alternative nontraditional asset like Magic.

Now that Bitcoin has faded, we have seen Reserved List card prices fade. Is this causation? I don’t believe so, but there is a correlation and I wonder if Bitcoin returned to $19,000 if we’d see another bounce in Reserved List cards. It’s something to think about, and certainly motivation to monitor the cryptocurrency market more closely.

Scenario 2: Currency Fluctuations

When it comes to the relationship between cryptocurrencies and Magic cards, one can only speculate on how tightly the two are correlated. But I am far more confident in the relationship between the strength of the U.S. Dollar and the flow of Magic cards across borders.

(Click to expand.)

There’s no need to speculate here—this is basic economics. Back in 2014 the U.S. Dollar was incredibly strong. The result: a flow of cash outside the U.S. and the reciprocal flow of cards into the country. Arbitrage was quite favorable, and it was easy to purchase cards from Japan to sell within the U.S. at a discount. Why? Because the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar was much stronger and could get you further as a result.

But since 2015 the dollar (as indicated by the DXY chart above) suddenly tanked. That’s where it has remained ever since—in fact, after a small recovery earlier this year, we’re now back to 52-week lows. As a result, we will see the reverse trend: money will flow into the U.S. from overseas and cards will move abroad. More specifically, we should see Old School and high-end cards move abroad, as these are the ones most subject to international arbitrage due to their scarcity.

This is why I check card prices on MKM just as much as I do TCGplayer these days. Often times stock on TCGplayer and eBay is near zero for a playable Alpha or Beta rare. Meanwhile there is ample stock in Europe.

For example, there is one Beta Nevinyrral's Disk in stock on TCGplayer: a damaged copy from Channel Fireball for $549.99. Meanwhile there are 20 copies in stock in Europe ranging from 400 Euros (damaged) to 1449 Euros (BGS 9.5). Supply is more plentiful in Europe, and that trend will continue if the dollar weakens further. People holding Euros will suddenly be able to afford a lot more cards from the U.S. and the supply will shift even further.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nevinyrral's Disk

Net, don’t be surprised if you get more offers from European buyers over the coming months. It is being driven by currency shifts.

Scenario 3: The Great Recession

October has been a rough month for investors in the stock market. The pullback has been painful as the Fed raises interest rates. But we need to keep things in perspective here. We are still just a few percent from all-time highs. This is nothing, in the grand scheme of things. Just a small blip on the radar.

Can the stock market really impact the health of Magic? Absolutely. I would argue it happened during the Great Recession of 2007. But during that time, the stock market dropped by more than 50% as unemployment crested 10%. This was a severe set of circumstances.

During this time, Magic sales slowed—it’s one of the reasons so little product from Lorwyn block exists, and why Commander foils from those sets are so prone to spiking. During that time (I remember it well), Magic just wasn’t doing all that well. But it wasn’t something inherently wrong with Magic. I suspect many players had to tighten their belts a little bit during this timeframe due to an array of financial hardships.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blowfly Infestation

But despite this correlation, I want to emphasize the severity of the market decline that the world weathered in 2007. Some of you may not have been that aware of market conditions during that time: it was very bad. Things were glum, jobs were lost, houses were foreclosed. It was not a time to be spending precious dollars on luxury items like Magic cards. Thus, the softening of the market.

We are far from that now, and will continue to be far from this scenario for a long time. It will take another major recession to impact Magic sales, and I don’t see such a move on the immediate horizon. We could certainly see a 10% correction or even a 20% bear market (we haven’t had the latter in about a decade). But it would take something far worse to negatively impact the market. Until that time comes, Magic’s performance should not be so closely tied to the stock market.

Wrapping It Up

Macroeconomic trends across the globe can certainly impact the Magic market. This is one of the reasons I follow the economy’s health so closely. Ignoring headlines such as the corporate tax cuts, employment rate declines, and wage growth/inflation is a detriment to your MTG finance prowess. But despite this, the correlation between the global economy and the Magic market isn’t exceptionally strong except for the most extreme cases.

In scenarios where currency values fluctuate drastically, or a new source of wealth suddenly is infused into the market, or a major recession occurs, the MTG market can certainly be impacted. We’re seeing that unfold now as the U.S. Dollar weakens and high-end cards move abroad yet again. But the extent of the move is going to be confounded by the overall health of Magic. In the end, this should overrule nearly all economic scenarios. Only the most extreme can have a more lasting impact on the MTG market.

And that’s what keeps me invested in Magic: my belief that the hobby remains strong despite all the noise. A bet on Magic is a bet that the game is here to stay for at least another decade. If you don’t feel confidently in this, I’d recommend you start selling right away. Otherwise you are contradicting yourself, or else you believe the global economy will collapse altogether—another scenario I struggle to envision for the immediate future.

…

Sigbits

  • Some of the more aggressive buy prices I flagged on Card Kingdom’s site last week have already dropped back down again. The window within which to take advantage of such lucrative opportunities is very narrow. But there’s always another one. Unlimited Counterspell may be one. CK has a buy price of $35 for near mint copies, which is fairly impressive given it’s only an uncommon.
  • Scroll Rack is another card on CK’s hotlist that catches my eye. They’re paying $36 on their buylist, which is fairly reasonable when comparing to TCG low and subtracting out fees. Still, there aren’t a ton of copies in stock—this could be more a flag that this card is going to jump higher soon rather than an opportunity to cash out. I’d watch stock closely.
  • Here’s an extremely tight spread: Card Kingdom is paying $42 on near mint Falling Star while Channel Fireball has one for sale for $49.99 on TCGplayer. Apply a small coupon, and you could be paying very near top buylist for this card. Actually, never mind that, I decided to buy it. Still, that’s a nice buy price.

Insider: Overlooked and Undervalued Standard Picks

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With a week or so of results in the bag, it would appear that Standard is shaping up to be a fairly compelling format. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the format was that all of the major archetypes—aggro, midrange, and control—were well-represented in the winner's metagame.

  • Aggro - 50%
  • Control - 25%
  • Midrange - 25%

I would expect aggro to see a slight decline and the other two archetypes to improve. It's no secret that proactive decks are favored in the first week of a format, since it takes more refinement to ensure a controlling deck has the appropriate answers to the suite of threats the aggressive decks will play.

The other thing that is noteworthy is that each major archetype had multiple subgroups:

  • Aggro - Boros Aggro, Boros Angels, Red Deck Wins, Izzet Wizards, and Mono-Blue Aggro.
  • Midrange - Golgari, Sultai, Temur, Abzan and Selesnya Tokens.
  • Control - UW Control, Jeskai, Grixis, and Dimir.

There were three large Standard events that I analysed lists from (SCG Open, SCG Classic, and MTGO PTQ) and each of these lists had at least one Top 16 at a major event.

Why is this important? Well, it's important because we have the real potential for something special to happen that hasn't happened for years. I don't want to get anybody's hopes up too much, but for the first time in a few years Standard might not be a trainwreck. In fact, it might actually be fun to play for a change!

I guess that is just my opinion that Standard has been poorly designed and not fun to play for several years. I would cite a major lack of diversity in the winner's metagame and the necessity to ban tons of cards as central to my "Standard sucked" opinion. Even if we disagree about how good or bad we think Standard has been in the past, I'd still like to sell you on the idea that this current Standard is shaping up to be well above average.

Popularity Breeds Opportunity

I've already spent a lot of ink establishing my primary premise: "We have a potentially great, and thus very popular, Standard format in front f us." But why does that matter? Well, it matters because it creates opportunity to buy and sell more cards to a larger pool of tournament players. If the format is a lot of fun it has the ability to attract a larger number of potential players. And, just as importantly, it can also create a format where players are willing to play more often.

The potential to take advantage of these types of dynamics makes me more interested in investing in Standard cards.

The best performing decks in terms of raw numbers across Top 16s were derivatives of BG and BGx. Yet, while BG had the most representation across Top 16, both Boros and Control had the highest percentage conversion rate to Top 8s.

While all three archetypes are a good place to look for potential speculation targets, I'm most interested in cards from Jeskai and Boros. I'm going to bet that the numbers don't lie and that these decks have a very good chance of remaining Top Tier.

Let's look at some of the cards that have serious potential to become major players in the unfolding Standard metagame. These are the types of cards that I'm looking to pick up right now in anticipation of them becoming the popular staples that everybody needs to build decks in the coming months.

Standard Picks

The problem with making Standard-based picks right now is that the majority of the cards are way overpriced because demand is higher than the supply. Honestly, if you have a mythic rare that you are not currently playing with, chances are that it is correct to sell now, since this is likely close to the tip of the price iceberg for the majority of pricey mythics.

We always see this trends at the start of a Standard format, but it's even more pronounced since so many cards rotated out. Essentially, we are just now learning what the staples of "New Standard" will be.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

The exception, in my opinion, is Teferi. I'm certainly keeping my playset of these forever. I could see this card continuing the rise. I would say this card is almost guaranteed to go up in value based on it being so insane, except I'm worried about it appearing in a preconstructed deck to help keep the cost down.

I do have some underpriced cards that I'm all about picking up right now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Conclave Tribunal

If you are playing White (and you should be) Conclave Tribunal is likely in your deck, and for good reason—the card is excellent. The fact that it is so flexible makes it an easy maindeck inclusion regardless of whether you are aggressive, midrange, or even control!

The fact that this is poised to be one of the most ubiquitously played cards in Standard is not necessarily obvious, which makes this a great pick-up. If this is true, which it probably will be, the card could easily double or triple from its current price, which would make it a fantastic card to make a point of picking up now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deafening Clarion

Deafening Clarion has the potential to be the best sleeper fromĀ Guilds of Ravnica. Both the Boros Angels deck that won the Team Event, and the Jeskai decks that performed exceptionally well, were packing this powerful spell. I love the fact that it does more than one thing, which makes it more flexible than the typical damage-based Pyroclasm type effect. It's also a very cute combo with Adanto Vanguard!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thief of Sanity

The card is really, really good, and kind of under the radar. It's obviously more important in slower match-ups, which I think will become more important as the format becomes better established. Week one is about defending against beatdown decks, but once people figure that out, Control gets much better. What matters when control is good (and it will be be because Teferi is an outrageous Magic card)? Control mirrors!

Thief of Sanity is one of the best anti-control cards in the format and it's really just a good card in general. I fully expect the card to pick up steam.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lazav, the Multifarious

First of all, this is a good surveil card. Second of all, it's just a good card! It appears in several decks: Surveil, Dimir Control, and Grixis Control. At less than $5 for a mythic this card seems like great value right now. It's also a combo in Legacy with Phyrexian Dreadnought. It's actually a combo with a lot of things! One of the best potential values in Standard right now.

Expansion // Explosion

Expansion // Explosion is another great sleeper card. I don't think the upside is more than a couple of bucks, but the buy-in cost is about fifty cents. The card is seeing a lot of play as a versatile spell in Jeskai Control. Expansion is great protection back-up for your own spells, since it can counter most opposing counterspells. Explosion is obviously just a great value card-draw spell for a hardcore control deck.

Where Credit Is Due

The key to all of these picks is that they are cards that people are not currently giving due credit. They look and feel like unwanted, misfit toys that we don't even bother to unsleeve after a draft. The thing is, these are all cards that will be format-defining for months to come. They fill roles that have been left empty with Amonkhet and Kaladesh leaving the format, and now is the time to strike before the hive mind catches on and the market adjusts.

While everyone is busy overpaying for History of Benalia and Risk Factor today, I want to be picking up the Deafening Clarions and Thief of Sanity's that they'll be lining up to overpay for in a couple of weeks! Don't overpay for cards doomed to decline, look for the cards with potential that are likely to grow.

Modern Myths: Dismantling Preconceptions

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How many times have you heard something you disagree with? How often has it pertained to Modern? My answer to both questions is plenty. Lately, none spur me into debate more than the claims that countermagic is bad and midrange is dead.

In this article, we'll debunk each of these myths by examining theory, decklists, and results. It's time to pierce the veil!

Myth #1: Modern Counterspells are Weak

There's a prevailing idea in the Modern community that the format's counterspells are bad to the point of being unplayable. This argument is at last losing traction a bit now that UWx has risen to Tier 1 status, but the notion that Counterspell isn't only safe for Modern, but underpowered for the format, continues to reverberate around the game stores and online forums I frequent. Granted, Counterspellwouldn't magically solve the problems permission decks face. It's true that Modern permission isn't as powerful or as prevalent as it is in eternal formats, but it's far from weak—I'd venture that if anything, it's just balanced.

Weighing Permission in a Proactive Format

Modern rewards players for being highly proactive in their strategy, or quickly establishing a board advantage and riding that lead to a fast win. Decks with this gameplan are innumerable—Burn, Infect, Affinity, Hardened Scales, Hollow One, Zoo, Dredge, Humans, and Spirits all exemplify Modern's aggro bent. These decks tend to be full of more-or-less interchangeable, cheap threats that work together to create a snowball effect. It goes without saying that casting a Ā two-mana Mana Leak on one such creature isn't very exciting. Incidentally counter-proof measures like Aether Vial and Cavern of Souls just add insult to injury.

Existing counterspells line up poorly against aggro decks not because the spells themselves are weak in the format, but because that's how Magic is and has always been. Take these excerpts from Mike Flores's 2003 fundamentals article, "Finding the Tinker Deck."

On CounterSlivers, one ofĀ the game'sĀ early fish decks:

The CounterSliver deck is designed to slide low mana threats under counterspell walls and protect these with some control element (usually permission) while they hassle the opposing life total.

CounterSliver decks shine in Weissman-heavy fields, where any typical hand will yield a cheap threat, and the light-to-moderate permission count can stop creature removal and/or card advantage.

On Sligh, a red deck full of aggressive one-drops:

For a short while, WotC's printing of incredibly powerful and cheap cards, including Cursed Scroll, Fireblast, Jackal Pup, and Mogg Fanatic temporarily catapulted the Sligh archetype to Enigma-level status and made it the undisputed best deck of about three Constructed formats, concurrently.

In any case, Sligh decks have historically punished slow control decks and fallen prey to busty green creatures. In environments powered up by blue super decks, forcing green fatties to the fringe, it flourished.

These passages illustrate that at least for the past 15 years, counterspells have underperformed against aggro decks. That's less a problem with the power level of counterspells and more a classic rock-paper-scissors strategy triangle at work.

Permission is still played in Modern, and excels in matchups historically kind to the spell type: against combo (which needs to find and resolve a key component, and usually a mana-intensive one) and control (which relies on late-game haymakers to close out games and prioritizes making land drops to wield the mana advantage that makes those spells castable). It's also fine against midrange, an aggro-control deck that carefully walks up the curve as games progress.

No Broken Counterspells

Part of the reason counterspells inhabit such a large portion of Legacy decks is the sheer power of the format's legal permission. Mana Leak is no Force of Will or Daze—for this reality, though, I think Modern players can rejoice. Counterspells are strategically weak to aggressive decks because they have to be weak to something;Ā their effect is devastating. Unlike proactive disruption like Thoughtseize, counterspells are often tempo-positive, costing less mana than the spells they deal with. They force opponents to commit to a play first, paying all costs associated with their spells before being told "no." Reliably accessing this effect for zero mana is, frankly, busted.

For proof of the brokenness of Daze and Force, look no further than the non-counterspell decks in Legacy. Rakdos Reanimator, Ad Nauseam Tendrils, Sneak and Show, Charbelcher, Storm, and Elves demonstrate the power level of combination decks acceptable in a world of free permission. Most of these decks are more than capable of winning on turns 1 or 2 unmolested, and none would be allowed into Modern.

The argument that free permission cancels out blistering combos snubs every other strategy in a given format. Modern is first and foremost about diversity, and forcing decks to play blue just to survive an onslaught of combos would probably remove more decks from the format than it would create.

Finding the Right Shell

The former two points skirt over the biggest impediment to this myth, which is that countermagic is in fact alive and well in Modern. It just thrives in certain shells, unlike in Legacy, where decks splash blue deliberately to access the broken permission.Ā Historically, two deck types have emerged that want counterspells: control decks and tempo decks. These same decks utilize the card type in Modern.

UW Control, by Kyle Teagan (10th, SCG Columbus Team Open)

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Enchantments

1 Porphyry Nodes

Instants

3 Cryptic Command
2 Logic Knot
1 Negate
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
2 Spell Snare

Sorceries

3 Ancestral Vision
1 Oust
3 Serum Visions
4 Terminus

Lands

7 Island
2 Plains
3 Celestial Colonnade
4 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
1 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard

1 Spell Queller
1 Detention Sphere
1 Celestial Purge
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Dispel
1 Negate
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Supreme Verdict
2 Timely Reinforcements

UW is the premier control deck in the format, and the deck is chock-full of countermagic. Its sweepers and removal get it to the late-game, where Cryptic Command and Logic Knot can shine; in the meantime, Negatedeals with noncreature spells. Spell Snare helps the deck recoup tempo against early-game plays from the opponent, and Spell Queller joins the fray against removal-light decks after siding.

This deck has enough ways to survive the early game to make good use of Modern's more expensive (and impactful) permission spells.

Counter-Cat, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
2 Mana Leak
2 Spell Pierce
1 Spell Snare
2 Thought Scour
1 Opt
3 Mutagenic Growth

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Faithless Looting
1 Chart a Course

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Flooded Strand
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Stomping Ground
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Steam Vents
1 Temple Garden
1 Breeding Pool
1 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Destructive Revelry
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Hazoret the Fervent
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Shapers' Sanctuary
2 Pyroclasm
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Negate
1 Mountain

Tempo decks seek to establish a lead on the board and gently disrupt opponents until their clocks can tie up the game. My own Counter-Cat deck is a good example of the thresh sub-archetype, which wins by backing individually powerful threats with spell-based disruption like countermagic and removal.Ā An aggro deck like this one doesn't need its permission to be as decisive as UW's, but merely to enable its fairness in the face of combo. Merfolk runs Unified Will, Spell Pierce, and most recently, Deprive for the same reason. Their lack of permission is a major barrier to "pure" Zoo decks entering Modern.

While UW is interactive enough to support permission (using it defensively), Counter-Cat is proactive enoughĀ (using it aggressively). Decks that don't check these boxes, such as midrange, are doomed to be poor homes for countermagic. The subsequent failed experiments in, for example, Sultai might prematurely convince some brewers of permission's weakness relative to other forms of disruption. But as the results indicate, counterspells in Modern aren't weak. They just aren't broken.

Myth #2: Midrange is Dead

The rise of Mardu and ensuing rise of UW have led some Modern players to mourn the death of midrange as they knew it: black and green. But Jund clung on as a solid Tier 2 option before Assassin's Trophy was printed, and according to MTGGoldfish, seems to be reclaiming its throne as midrange poster boy with Trophy in the picture. As LL once said, don't call it a comeback. But what led so many players to decry BGx in the first place?

Midrange as Synergy Assassin

Fair decks like midrange rarely enjoy free wins, as withĀ turn 1 Chalice or turn 2 infect for 10. In a world of Hollow Ones and Vengevines, curving Inquisition of Kozilek into Dark Confidant can feel underwhelming, to say the least. But these decks do have their great matchups.

If there's one thing midrange excels at, it's picking apart synergy decks. Decks that need multiple or specific pieces to operate, such as mana dork decks, critical mass strategies like Burn, and one-card ponies like Lantern Control, struggle in the face of targeted discard and early pressure. Between Confidant to keep the cards flowing and Tarmogoyfto just finish the game before opponents recover, BGx has no shortage of ways to destroy players assembling components.

Inquisition into Confidant used to beat nearly everything in Modern. The format has changed and become more powerful over time, but those cards still make up the backbone of BGx. It's only natural that they aren't as strong, relatively, as they once were. But that combination, and the midrange decks it helms, is still a nightmare for the synergy decks Modern continues to house and will probably never divorce. By that token, midrange should always have a place in the format.

Old Faithful

Another huge draw to midrange is its reliability. With their high land count, compact but streamlined threat suite, and similarly uniform disruption numbers, BGx decks are very good at executing their primary plan every game. Of course, that plan might not line up so well against some decks, and critically against the nut-draw from less consistent strategies. But it does perform adequately against many.

Discard spell into two-drop into three-drop won't win any games against triple Hollow One. But it's great at punishing stumbles from opponents, as well as more fragile opening hands. Many keeps in Modern revolve around a single card or two, and without that crucial piece, the hand becomes an easy mulligan. Besides giving pilots perfect information, targeted discard can exploit these weaknesses in hands to turn the slow, fair deck into a killing machine.

Jund, by Michael OlsonĀ (13th, SCG Columbus Classic)

Creatures

4 Bloodbraid Elf
3 Dark Confidant
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tarmogoyf

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope

Instants

3 Assassin's Trophy
2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize

Lands

2 Forest
1 Mountain
2 Swamp
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Overgrown Tomb
2 Raging Ravine
1 Stomping Ground
1 Treetop Village
1 Twilight Mire
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Damping Sphere
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Seal of Fire
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Fatal Push
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
1 Angrath, the Flame-Chained
1 Anger of the Gods
2 Collective Brutality

JundĀ has never necessitated cantrips because it achieves consistency by redundancy. The deck plays enough of its key pieces that opening a solid mix of lands, disruption, and pressure is par for the course. As such, it mulligans lightly in the dark.

Tarmogoyf is Freaking Awesome

In "Pushing Back: How to Goyf in 2017," I discussed Tarmogoyf's applications in a post-Push world and how Fatal Push changed where the creature would be included. My predictions mostly rang true, chief among them that Goyf far from became obsolete.

Dropping to something like 5% of Modern decks, of course, marked a significant downturn from Goyf's glory days as the most-played creature in Modern by a mile. Back then, the Lhurgoyf was splashed into archetypes as diverse as aggro-combo and control in addition to helming aggro and midrange strategies alike.

The creature's continued relevance answers the question asked so often in that not-so-distant past: "what's a budget alternative to Tarmogoyf?" Hopefuls would be met with a deadpan "nothing," as nothing can really replace Tarmogoyf. Another two-mana combat creature with this good a rate simply does not exist in Modern. Stats are more important now than ever, and having a huge beater that's relatively easy to accommodate (Goyf asks only that players have a game of Magic, althoughĀ purposefully building around Goyf can pay dividends of its own) is a boon for strategies that want to load up on disruption.

Today, those strategies are primarily midrange ones, and Goyf finds itself more or less confined to aggro-control decks. Given its unmatched rate and ease of inclusion, I don't see the creature going anywhere anytime soon, Fatal Push or no. Besides, Push seems to mostly see mainboard play in lower-tier decks, making Goyf a solid creature against Modern's performing gauntlet.

Fair or Square

I'm fortunate to have a platform in ModernNexus with which to frame my arguments. But part of the fun is shopping my ideas with others. If you disagree with any of the points made in this article, I'd love to hear from you in the comments. Until then, may you counter many Krark-Clan Ironworks!

Why Magic Online Has More Life Left Than You Realize

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Magic Arena has many sounding the death knell of Magic Online, but I as I see it, the 16+-year-old program still has plenty of life left to live. Today I’ll cover Magic Online’s key advantages over Magic Arena and the roles it fills, which will keep it relevant into 2019 and beyond.

Image result for mtg arenaĀ Image result for mtgo logo

Tournament Infrastructure

The biggest strength of Magic Online over Magic Arena in its current state is its tournament infrastructure. Magic Online has been developed with the ability to host large tournaments as a key feature. Its first years were plagued with crashes due to server instability, but these downtimes have become nonexistent in the MTGO 3.0 world. Magic Online hosts Pro Tour Qualifiers and Magic Online Championship Series (MOCS) events, both which lead to the Pro Tour and have significant real-life prizes, and so draw hundreds of players to compete.

Magic Arena currently has no capability for hosting tournaments, and until it does, it’s not a competitor with Magic Online with respect to the most competitive players. Magic Arena does offer ā€œChallengesā€, which are essentially Magic Online leagues with a different name. These look to be the bread-and-butter competitive option for the platform, and are in direct competition with Magic Online Leagues, but in no way fulfill the need for hosting large tournaments.

I remember back when I started playing Hearthstone, one of the glaring issues was the lack of tournament infrastructure. I haven’t played in years, but for research's sake, I looked into how they implemented it, only to find out it still hasn't been! In fact, it’s actually a very current issue in Hearthstone – tournaments were announced in February, but one month ago was announced to be put on hold because there was still so much work to be done to meet expectations. If Hearthstone has not implemented a tournament feature in over four years, then I assume Magic Arena will have a significant challenge doing so.

I played some early Hearthstone tournaments through third-party organizers, a process that could be replicated for Magic Arena. As far as I know, most high-profile Hearthstone events are played live in-person, and Magic Arena could fill a similar role for Magic. It will be great for showcasing streamers and special-event style tournaments like super-leagues and live invitationals, or even Grand Prix-style events like Hearthstone's Dreamhack, but time will tell if it becomes an effective online tournament platform like Magic Online.

Cash Prizes

There’s also the issue of tournament prizes:Ā Magic Arena does not have trading or any sort of inter-player economy like Magic Online, so any prizes only have value in Magic Arena. Currently Magic Arena is a great way to play Magic cheaply or for free, but it’s not comparable to Magic Online, where one can compete for prizes with actual cash value – any tickets or boosters won in events can be sold for cash. I’ve heard this referred to as the online-gambling aspect, and it’s what drives a large number of players to compete. If Magic Arena does add tournaments, the prizes will be in Magic Arena packs, gold, and gems, which will allow one to play more, but there’s no monetary profit to be gained. I imagine that the largest events could offer real prizes like Pro Tour invites, but otherwise, it won’t really be comparable.

Magic Arena stands in direct contrast to the new Valve game Artifact slated for release next month, which will have trading and cards that can be bought and sold on the Steam Marketplace. With such a high-profile backing, I expect the game to be huge, and it’s going to be in direct competition with Magic and Hearthstone. I imagine that much of the current hype over Magic Arena from various Magic and Hearthstone pros and grinders will die down when they realize that Artifact offers a more appealing value proposition for the most competitive players.

Old Cards and Formats

One glaring omission from Magic Arena is old cards, as the platform currently goes back only to Ixalan. It has been known for a while that the source code of the program has references back to Shadows over Innistrad, which some take to mean that they will eventually print those sets, maybe to start a new post-Modern format. Whatever the case, the oldest Magic cards are not on the program.

Image result for vintage cube logo mtg wizards.com

If old cards are never printed, then Magic Arena will never truly replace Magic Online’s ability to completely replicate the paper Magic experience. If they are printed, then I imagine it will be a very long and drawn out process, both from a programming perspective and an economic one. Magic Online did not always have the oldest sets, but they were slowly released in the form of new draft formats, etc, which Magic Online cashed in on, and Magic Arena could do as well. Regardless of what happens, Magic Online has this advantage and will be useful until Magic Arena catches up.

Real Eight-Player Drafts

Magic Arena currently does not offer true drafts, but rather drafting against robots, similar to how Hearthstone drafting is done solo. Magic Arena will need to add true eight-player drafts if it is to become a replacement for Magic Online. I expect this will only be a matter of time, but as it stands, currently it’s apple and oranges. Much of the success of Magic Online came because it was such an effective drafting platform and was revolutionary compared to the old way of having to muster eight players together in person to play, which was a challenge anywhere, and an often insurmountable one for geographically isolated players. It’s still the most convenient way to draft, and Magic Arena will need to replicate the true drafting experience if it’s to fully replace Magic Online.

It’s Profitable for WotC

Magic Online makes Wizards of the Coast money, and quite a lot of it the last I heard, and history shows that they and their stockholders are awfully motivated by money. Magic Arena certainly cannibalizes some of Magic Online’s audience and profits, but it makes sense for the company to keep this at a minimum. From their perspective, ideally, Magic Arena captures new players from the non-Magic playing populace, not steals Magic Online players. While their grand plan may be to eventually transition away every Magic Online player to Magic Arena before shuttering the program, they’ll do their best to keep the profits flowing for as long as possible and double-dip on both. What that means is plenty of continued support for Magic Online, at least in the near-term.

What Should We Do Now?

The best thing to do with Magic Online now is to keep getting while the getting’s good, just like Wizards is doing. If you’re a tournament grinder, one option to decrease risk is to rent cards rather than hold them. There are various websites offering the service, and the prices seem very reasonable relative to the value it provides – a pittance compared to the thousands of dollars many collections are worth.

That said, the market is still strong, and it’s notable that many Standard cards are now at record highs after rotation, despite being in direct competition with Magic Arena . There are also thousands of players in the Limited queues, so it seems like business as usual for the time being.

On the other hand, there have been some recent pullbacks in the prices of Eternal cards, which some have attributed to Magic Arena , but these prices have always been very cyclical online, with prices falling to a low at the end of the year with the closure of Modern/formerly Extended season and spiking in the spring. If Magic Online does hold strong through 2020, the next few months could actually be a good time to get in the market. The most prudent move will be to keep speculations in the short term, and go for quick flips and small-ball plays that lock in profits immediately, as opposed to holding specs for a long term that might not come to fruition.

–Adam

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Adam Yurchick

Adam started playing Magic in 1999 at age 12, and soon afterwards he was working his trade binder at school, the mall food court, FNM, and the Junior Super Series circuit. He's a long-time Pro Tour gravy-trainer who has competed in 26 Pro Tours, a former US National Team member, Grand Prix champion, and magic.tcgplayer.com columnist. Follow him at: http://twitter.com/adamyurchick

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Posted in Arena, Finance, MTGO, Predictions1 Comment on Why Magic Online Has More Life Left Than You Realize

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Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #15

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Although the SCG Open in Philadelphia was cancelled this past weekend, and Grand Prix Denver along with Grand Prix Nagoya were Team Limited, there’s still data to look at. There always is thanks to sources like Magic Online.

I check this source on a daily basis since online Magic tends to shift a bit faster than paper Magic. This can give you insight as to where to metagame might be headed, which is an important part of shaping this article series.

This is by no means a get-rich-quick deal. It’s more of a how-to-grow your Magic collection and/or bankroll for tournament play over time with less money, to acquire the cards you need and get the most out of the cards you don’t need.

Article Series Main Focus Points

  • Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  • Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Recent Buys

Narnam Renegade - Aether Revolt (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narnam Renegade

Purchased Price
$1

I mentioned this towards the end of article #14 when talking about Pelt Collector, and decided to buy eight of them from Miniature Market since they were only $1 each. This just rotated out of Standard so you can probably find these at your local game store or in trade binders. They could go up to $3-5 dollars in a year or less.

Grisly Salvage - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grisly Salvage

Purchased Price
$1.25

We saw Necrotic Ooze pop like crazy last week because of decks like the one Ben FriedmanĀ talked about on Star City Games.

Modern: Abzan Ooze by Bryan Gottlieb

Creatures

1 Grim Poppet
1 Walking Ballista
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Devoted Druid
2 Doom Whisperer
3 Duskwatch Recruiter
1 Fauna Shaman
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Morselhoarder
3 Necrotic Ooze
3 Noble Hierarch
1 Viscera Seer
4 Vizier of Remedies

Non-Creature Spells

4 Chord of Calling
3 Grisly Salvage
3 Eldritch Evolution

Lands

3 Forest
1 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Gavony Township
1 Godless Shrine
1 Horizon Canopy
3 Overgrown Tomb
2 Temple Garden
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Fairgrounds Warden
3 Obstinate Baloth
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Wickerbough Elder
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
3 Assassin's Trophy
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Thoughtseize

But the card the stuck out to me in this list was Grisly Salvage. There’s only the original printing from Return to Ravnica and the FNM promo that come in foil. Even more importantly, Salvage sees play not only here but also in the explosive Bridgevine deck that came to fruition earlier this year.

The thing I really like about this card is that it’s an enabler that’s also an instant, which gives this card a lot of flexibility. Not to mention, it’s in the same colors as Assassin's Trophy. This card does a lot. It digs for the critical creature or land you need all while feeding your graveyard, which is a very powerful resource to draw from.

They probably won’t print this artwork again very soon either, so you can pretty safely pick these up without too much investment and just store them away.

Shrine of Burning Rage - WPN & Gateway Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shrine of Burning Rage

Purchased Price
$2.99

I mentioned Arclight Phoenix and Runaway Steam-Kin in Archangelic76ā€˜s Mono-Red Modern deck in article #14. I also said I wasn’t sure how viable the deck is going forward, but it did pop up again on October 12 on Magic Online via egadd2894’s list.

Modern: Runaway Red by egadd2894

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

4 Desperate Ritual
4 Faithless Looting
4 Fiery Temper
1 Insult / Injury
2 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
3 Risk Factor
3 Tormenting Voice

Lands

19 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Abrade
3 Anger of the Gods
3 Blood Moon
1 Gut Shot
1 Risk Factor
2 Shrine of Burning Rage
3 Surgical Extraction

Egadd2894 played two copies of Shrine of Burning Rage versus Archangelic76's three in the sideboard. But nonetheless, it’s still making the cut. There’s only the original New Phyrexia printing and this promo. Also, don’t forget that LoĆÆc Le Briand won Grand Prix Birmingham a little over a year ago in 2017 with four copies of Shrine.

Modern: Burn by LoĆÆc Le Briand

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Non-Creature Spells

4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skullcrack
4 Shrine of Burning Rage

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

4 Destructive Revelry
2 Grim Lavamancer
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Path to Exile
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Shattering Spree

Folds

Allied Dual Creature Lands - Worldwake (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Celestial Colonnade

Target Sell Prices
Non-Foil & Foil: Current Market Prices

This is the only printing of these cards since February 2010. They just recently peaked at an all-time high and have started their descent. If you don’t need these, particularly Celestial Colonnade, Creeping Tar Pit, and Raging Ravine, I would get rid of them and buy back in when they get reprinted.

Caustic Caterpillar - Magic Origins (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Caustic Caterpillar

Target Sell Price
$5+

I have no idea why the foil version of this card is $7-8. The only thing I can think of is EDH/Commander. But even then, it only sees play in about 6,000 decks. This card is pretty easy to reprint and it’s a common. I would dump any copies you have. Card Kingdom is buying them for $4 cash right now.

Seekers' Squire - Ixalan (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seekers' Squire

Target Sell Price
$.50 to $1

Have you seen the Magic Online Standard PTQ results from October 14? Five of the six Golgari decks in the Top 8 played this card. Take a look at Tixis’s winning list.

Standard: Golgari Aggro by Tixis

Creatures

1 District Guide
4 Doom Whisperer
2 Golgari Findbroker
1 Izoni, Thousand-Eyed
4 Jadelight Ranger
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Merfolk Branchwalker
3 Ravenous Chupacabra
3 Seekers' Squire
2 Wildgrowth Walker

Non-Creature Spells

2 Assassin's Trophy
2 Find / Finality
2 Vraska, Golgari Queen
3 Vraska, Relic Seeker

Lands

8 Forest
4 Overgrown Tomb
7 Swamp
4 Woodland Cemetery

Sideboard

1 Arguel's Blood Fast
3 Duress
1 Find / Finality
1 Izoni, Thousand-Eyed
3 Moment of Craving
2 The Eldest Reborn
1 Vivien Reid
2 Vraska's Contempt
1 Wildgrowth Walker

I don’t think the card will ever see play outside of Standard, so I would get rid of these if you have any to lock in some value now.

Wildgrowth Walker - Ixalan (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wildgrowth Walker

Target Sell Price
$.50 to $1

The same goes for this card.

Shriekhorn - Mirrodin Besieged (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shriekhorn

Target Sell Price
$5ish

Dredge has started to become more popular again with the printing of Creeping Chill. The deck is poised to prey on all the UW Control and BGx decks running around Modern. Shriekhorn is an integral part of the deck since it’s easy to cast and gives you the most efficient way of hitting as many Creeping Chills as possible. Take a look at Rvng’s list for the latest iteration.

Modern: Dredge by Rvng

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
2 Golgari Thug
4 Narcomoeba
4 Prized Amalgam
4 Stinkweed Imp

Non-Creature Spells

4 Cathartic Reunion
3 Conflagrate
4 Creeping Chill
4 Faithless Looting
4 Life from the Loam
4 Shriekhorn

Lands

2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 City of Brass
4 Copperline Gorge
1 Gemstone Mine
2 Mountain
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Darkblast
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Lightning Axe
4 Nature's Claim

There’s only one printing of this card and it’s also a common artifact, making it pretty easy to reprint in something like the next Masters set.

Recent Sells

Runaway Steam-Kin - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Runaway Steam-Kin

Sold Prices
Non-Foil Playsets: $19 & $21
Foil Playsets: $46

I was able to sell non-foil playsets pretty quickly. However, the foil playsets are much hard to sell. I’m probably stuck with these for a while, hoping that it sees more play in Modern. I played in a Standard PPTQ this past weekend and Steam-Kin seemed powerful, but the card that seemed to do the most work was Experimental Frenzy.

For those who are interested, I made a mistake in round four that cost me the tournament. If it weren't for that, I would've had a chance at Top 8 and potentially winning the tourney from there, so the deck has potential. But I'm just not sure if it'll be dominant going forward.

Mono-Red did well, as it often does right out of the gates when a format is the furthest away from being solved. It seems very medium right now in the face of all the Golgari and Jeskai decks.

If you have these and aren’t using them, I’d get rid of them and buy back in later when they drop in price. Or you can wait to see what happens this coming weekend at the SCG Open in Dallas, or maybe Grand Prix Atlanta in November.

Pelt Collector - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pelt Collector

Sold Prices
Non-Foil Playset: $21.50

This is definitely showing up in many different archetypes in Standard but hasn’t really made waves with Vexing Devil in Modern yet. I’m still not sure how viable this is with Fatal Pushes and Assassin Trophies all over the place. And I’m not sure how this fares against decks that are doing broken things like Storm, Ironworks Combo, or Lantern Control.

I think the same goes for this as with Runaway Steam-Kin. If you don’t need them, get rid of them and buy them later on the dip.

Office Hours

I’ll be co-hosting Quiet Speculation’s Office Hours again. This will be the second time. You can catch the audio of the inaugural session with Sigmund Ausfresser and me here in case you missed it. Christopher Martin will be joining me for the second session. It’s set for Thursday, October 25 at 8pm Central, so mark your calendars and join us in the Discord channel.

Public Spreadsheet

Stay up to the minute on what I’m looking at on a daily basis via the Hold ā€˜Em & Fold ā€˜Em - Public MTG Finance Spreadsheet. Don’t forget to bookmark it because I update it on the fly so you can see what’s going on as the market moves and before articles about certain cards are published.

Summary

Recent Buys

  • Narnam Renegade - Aether Revolt (Foil)
  • Grisly Salvage - FNM Promos
  • Shrine of Burning Rage - WPN & Gateway Promos

Folds

  • Celestial Colonnade - Worldwake (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Creeping Tar Pit - Worldwake (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Raging Ravine - Worldwake (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Caustic Caterpillar - Magic Origins (Foil)
  • Seekers' Squire - Ixalan (Foil)
  • Wildgrowth Walker - Ixalan (Foil)
  • Shriekhorn - Mirrodin Besieged (Foil)

Recent Sells

  • Runaway Steam-Kin - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • Pelt Collector - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil)

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ā€˜Em & Fold ā€˜Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

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