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It’s a Jund deck with… uh… Chromanticore?

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In an eternal effort to annoy Jason Alt about Chromanticore, I found this awesome video about a Jund Chromanticore deck tech by TheMagicManSam on Youtube:

 

I like that Sam reaches high and really stretches his manabase for fun stuff. Unlike a lot of deck techs, he's also pretty sober about the shortcomings of the list. Here's the list, too.

If you've been trading a lot and have a full set of Scrylands, check out this hilarious and fascinating deck tech. While you're at it, check out Sam's other videos - he was kind enough to give his blessing on us posting his vid here!

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Insider: Standard in the Summer

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Journey into Nyx Standard is upon us! Looking at the top eight for SCG Cincinnati, we’re seeing a good mix of the same old stuff and cool brews, leaning slightly toward established decks. Some new cards are seeing play, but nothing crazy came out of the event.

There may be financial opportunities here, but this is a dangerous time to be speculating on Standard. I’ve been advising for months to get out of your Return to Ravnica block cards, and so I have to assume that you have either done so or have a very good reason to hold them.

Sometimes I just take the exceptions to general rules for granted, but today I’m going to go a bit deeper to discuss the options you have with Standard cards moving forward.

Long-Past Financial Relevance

How the mighty have fallen! Yesterday’s big successes for many a speculator are now retailing for less than they were buylisting just six months ago. I’m talking about RTR block cards like Desecration Demon and Jace.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Architect of Thought

I would be surprised if any QS Insiders are still holding copies of these for speculation reasons. The time to get out was long ago, and anyone committed enough to MTG finance to subscribe to this site should know that. After all, the buylist spread for this type of card has risen to above 50% in many cases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blood Baron of Vizkopa

If you’re still holding any copies of these cards, chances are they are for a deck you’re playing. If you’re playing big events or just FNM on a regular basis, there’s nothing wrong with continuing to use the cards until they rotate. If you’re winning, you may be making more playing with the cards than just selling them now.

But if you’re not using these cards frequently enough to justify keeping them, you should probably try to trade or sell them at as close to retail value as possible. Buylisting is an unattractive option for cards with such a high spread.

Eternal Keepers

Okay, so that’s the stuff you should have sold long ago. What about the stuff still worth holding?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

Someday it’s going to be right to buy Scavenging Ooze, but there’s an awful lot of $7 copies available on TCG Player at this moment. In any case, this is not a card to sell leading up to Standard rotation. On the contrary, that may be the very time to buy. This card has proven its relevance in both Modern and Legacy, and is also a solid two-drop in casual formats.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abrupt Decay

Cards like Abrupt Decay and the shocklands derive a large portion of their value from playability in eternal formats. They’re playable in Standard, but while they are currently in print, their Standard legality actually keeps their prices down.

When they rotate and are no longer readily available everywhere you go, that’s when the price goes up. These are definitely great types of cards to hold for the long term.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Supreme Verdict

Also bear in mind that casual cards like Chromatic Lantern and Consuming Aberration derive their value from casual play. Like eternal cards, casual cards are also less likely to drop at rotation and more likely to grow over time.

The cards you want to sell are those that saw play in Standard, but are not good in eternal or casual formats. If demand will continue past rotation, just hold it!

Next Year's Standard

At this point, Theros block cards are beginning to reach their low points. I am personally not interested in trading or selling anything from Theros or Born of the Gods at this time. Journey Into Nyx cards are inflated due to low supply, so until demand is met, selling JOU cards may be a good play. But in general (as I’ve written about in detail before), the summer is historically when the current block reaches its low point, only to reach its high point immediately after the fall set release.

At this point, we don’t know what the fall set release is going to be. Thus, I’m not really comfortable buying in to any Theros block cards based on speculation for next Standard season.

Knowing the theme could provide hints about what types of cards will be relevant. For example, if we return to Alara, there’s a good chance mono-color cards lose a lot of value. If we go to a plane that supports mono-color play, the opposite could happen.

Since we don’t know that, I like just holding my Theros block cards for the spike that will come next fall. Once we have more information about the next set, we can make a more informed decision on individual cards. However, I'll name a few I think may be big hitters next fall. I'm keeping a close eye on the temples, the gods, Thoughtseize, and Hero's Downfall.

One Big Question Mark

There’s one card I just have no idea on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphinx's Revelation

Sphinx's Revelation has dropped significantly from its high point. It has seen four-of Standard play throughout its life in the format, and has also proven its power in Modern. However, it only sees play as a one- or two-of in the much faster and more powerful eternal format.

I expect Revelation to hold some value in the long term, but I have no idea where the floor will be. Price memory, Modern, Standard, and even casual formats all contribute to the current price, and its unclear to me what the trajectory will be from here. If you have any theories regarding Sphinx's Revelation, please share in the comments.

Insider: Return to the Mean

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As of late, it feels like the finance world has been holding it's breath.

For a time, there were many cards that were shooting up almost daily in price. Only to fall back to Earth within the weeks to follow. Those times left much hope that there were quick profit gains and large amounts of room for anyone that wanted to get into finance to make money or subsidize their collection.

Subsidizing your card pool to put decks together can still happen. I am not so sure the "quick buck" is still here though. The changes Wizards has made to the Pro Tour Schedule have been subtle, but I'm starting to see the long-term impact these changes are going to have.

Untitled-1

The addition of an additional qualifier season may not seem like much, but since that qualifier season is now draft, it will have an impact on card pricing and longevity of formats. The window of opportunity has absolutely shrunk now, while the time necessary to put certain cards on a holding pattern will be longer in some cases.

There are only so many months in the year, after all. This application of a new qualifier season, while also compacting and concentrating the other seasons, means that you will have to strike hard and fast during a season for it to be the highest profit yield.

A financier usually operates on two channels. 1) We wait for cards to clear through one of our chosen retail means. 2) We wholesale to other vendors in order to re-up on liquid capital and reinvest in another wholesale collection. The usual attitude is that we have the time to make these transactions become a healthy mix of retail and wholesale in order to come out on the highest amount of cash available in a set amount of time.

That's now going to be harder.

This is phenomenal news for those of us who actually focus our time into tangible hard-fought results. This should also bring a kind of checks and balances to the rest of the finance world.The "weekend warrior" will end up missing out on some opportunities because of Mom wanting them to go camping that weekend. Or, work called again--and you'll need to be on shift, instead of going to SCG: ___________.

This is all fine and dandy. No one said this hobby had to take over your life, but now--with a smaller window to take advantage of the hills and valleys of formats--it becomes so much more cash- and time-intensive to really see tangible results.

If you find it hard to picture the subtlety of this effect, remember that demand takes time to spike, as well as time for the investment income of players to cycle.

Think about it like this: Tim is working his standard 9-5 job and loves to play older formats. Modern comes around and he's been piloting Deck X for a while. While the initial investment was sound, and he really enjoyed playing the deck last Modern season, the format has now changed. He doesn't realize this until the first of three local Modern Pro Tour Qualifiers takes place near him.

Now, he's devastated because it's plainly apparent Deck X just isn't going to cut the mustard now. There are more players, tournaments are longer with more rounds, and the more skilled players are finally coming out to participate in Modern. Modern has finally taken off thanks to Modern Masters being a huge hit.

Now, what does he do? He puts the pieces together for a better deck, creating demand, while wholesaling, trading, or retailing the pieces of Deck X that he can. This will take time. Not only that, but what if financially speaking, his job only pays him twice a month? This is the average player.

The average player is what your thoughts needs to be, daily. That player is you. It's not the dollars and cents of the hottest card right now. It's who do you know that is constantly looking for cards? Who do you know that does not like their deck consistently and wants to trade often? Who is always opening boxes, and wants to subsidize that cost by selling half of it?

How many tournaments are you going to? How many ads are you responding to on Craigslist? How many auctions are you looking at on eBay? All of these things take time, in order to take advantage of just one card's uptick in price.

This game is a people game because it is the people that play it, that make it, that crave it and love it. Bellow those passions, provide the service they need, and they will love you for it. You can both make money and enjoy a wonderful hobby.

That time allotment will cycle faster now. That window of opportunity to invest at lows and sell at highs will shrink. It will become more important to find a game plan and stick to it. More draft formats will mean more people practicing drafts, which will mean more packs opened and greater supply, thus affecting demand and pricing.

The subtle nuances of this, combined with Wizards deft handling of reprinting and supply philosophies is something most people gloss over completely. Don't let that underlying driving force determine how successful your business is, for it is the till of your ship. Would you like to sail rudderless? I wouldn't.

- Till Next Time

Dylan Beckham

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Dylan Beckham

Dylan has been involved in Magic: The Gathering since the heyday of The Dark. Continually invested in the community, he's been a Pro Tour Player, Trader, Judge, Tournament Organizer, Volunteer, and Vendor. Currently involved with the day to day operations of selling online, Dylan has brought his experience to Quiet Speculation to make you a better investor. Hailing from the Atlanta area, and now part of the Dallas scene - he's often at big events sourcing cards or discussing Life, the Universe, and Everything. Have a question? Feel free to comment, message, or email anytime.

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Remembering Rise of the Eldrazi

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I'm not usually someone who gets super nostalgic about draft sets, but everyone is allowed to have their one, and for me that one was Rise of the Eldrazi. Seriously, the set had it all. Outside of the one aggro deck you could play if you wanted, you could do basically anything in the format, from drafting ramp to fatties to freaking defenders. It was a thing of beauty.

I wouldn't suggest playing this in Draft, no matter how much ramp you have. But hey, still an awesome card, right?

Of course, it existed for all of about three months before it was forgotten about.

Until now, that is.

Evan Erwin is a great guy who you probably know from the long-running Magic Show. But he's got another show worth checking out, Forgotten Lore. And here he is, talking about my favorite set! Well worth a listen.

You can find the full clip here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: Standard, Evolving Dredge & Finance

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Nyx is in the mix and we are all so excited to play with new cards and new strategies! There are so many new options, the world of Magic is amazing, and we all can’t wait to bring our new deck to battle!

Unfortunately, new archetypes often don’t live up to the hype surrounding them. If we take a look at the results of SCG Cincy, the top 16 decks looked like the following.

5 Black Devotion decks
4 U/W Control decks
2 Monsters Decks
4 Aggro decks (1 blue, 1 red, 1 green, and 1 green'white), none of which made top 8
1 Junk Midrange deck

Just looking at top 8, there were three Black Devotion decks, three U/W Control decks, one Junk Midrange, and one R/G Monsters. In the top 8, there were a total of 35 Journey Into Nyx cards played, 16 of which were lands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Desecration Demon

I don’t know about anyone else, but when I saw that was the top 8, I slumped a little in my chair and lost most of my interest in watching the matches. When I envisioned the new Standard metagame, nearly copying and pasting the same results from before the set was released was not at all what I imagined.

Don’t let this one tournament get you down though. We still have lots of time to find our angle. Mono-Black and U/W Control have been tuning their decks for months now. It’s possible that Naya Hexproof, along with the other new archetypes, just need some time to hone their list as well.

Initial results don’t look good for the hexproof decks though. Many times I see them failing to fight through Abrupt Decay or the newly adopted Celestial Flare. Hexproof will adapt, as will any other deck trying to make it in this controlling format.

As for me, I have been working hard trying to find my angle of attack. It began from right where I left off, with Golgari Dredge.

Dredge in Standard is a bruiser of a deck that sets up to attack you once or twice for huge chunks of damage. We have new tools now to help like Nyx Weaver, which has been working quite well in the deck. There were a number of new cards to try out, but this is where I settled after tinkering with the deck list.

Nyx Dredge 1.0

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
3 Sylvan Caryatid
3 Lotleth Troll
4 Satyr Wayfinder
3 Herald of Torment
4 Nighthowler
3 Nyx Weaver
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
2 Shadowborn Demon
4 Nemesis of Mortals

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage
2 Commune With Nature
2 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple of Malady
2 Mana Confluence
6 Forest
4 Swamp

This deck is great and functioned consistently and powerfully, but the Standard meta has become quite a bit more hostile. Sure the Monsters matchup is still solid, but when Mono-Black starts playing Abrupt Decay or Deicide, games become much harder to win.

You can dredge all you want, but setting up a huge Nighthowler doesn’t get you anywhere when they kill the aura right away. If your meta doesn't have tons of Mono-Black splashing green, this new version might still be okay, but if so, we’re going to have to try something else.

My next thought was to make the deck more threat-dense to try and overcompensate for the additional removal. What I came up with was the next level of Dredge.

[cardimage cardname='Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord'] [cardimage cardname='Mana Confluence']

Nyx Dredge 2.0

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
2 Golden Hind
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Satyr Wayfinder
2 Herald of Torment
4 Nighthowler
2 Pharika, God of Affliction
2 Nyx Weaver
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
1 Rot Farm Skeleton
2 Shadowborn Demon
3 Nemesis of Mortals

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage
2 Commune With Nature
2 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple of Malady
2 Mana Confluence
6 Forest
4 Swamp

As you can see, we now have access to a mana creature with a reasonable body and a god that can easily turn on to lay down the beats. Overall, there are not many additional threats, but they are more diverse than before. This version still gives us the potent game plan of a giant Nighthowler on your creature, but we have other ways to kill our opponent as well.

Even with diversifying our threats and improving our negative matchups, I was still having a problem beating decks like Mono-Blue Devotion. The game plans of Dredge and Mono-Blue are surprisingly similar. The difference is that while both are trying to set up the game state with permanents, Dredge does so without putting much pressure on the opponent whereas Mono-Blue aggressively applies pressure.

This version of Dredge may be the best I’ve played yet, but it is not nearly as well positioned as it was before Nyx. That is unfortunate because the deck is so much fun.

[cardimage cardname='Lotleth Troll'] [cardimage cardname='Temple of Malady']

While working with these cards and watching other players pilot the deck, the power of Lotleth Troll was highlighted over and over again. I have always been a huge fan of Lol Troll, as I like to call him, in this deck because he’s a threat that all of these controlling decks have a difficult time handling. There are more options like Banishing Light to deal with him now, but your opponent has many fewer outs than with other threats.

Following up that thought led me to pursue the possibility that we have all been using Pharika, God of Affliction with the wrong mindset. What if Pharika is supposed to be an aggressive god like Thassa, God of the Sea rather than a midrange god like Ephara, God of the Polis?

This thought ate at my subconscious for twenty four hours straight until the idea snapped into place. Here’s what happened in my Temple of Epiphany.

Devoted to Pharika

Creatures

4 Gnarled Scarhide
4 Tormented Hero
4 Pack Rat
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Lifebane Zombie
4 Pharika, God of Affliction
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord

Spells

3 Thoughtseize
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Hero's Downfall
2 Underworld Connections

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple of Malady
2 Mana Confluence
4 Mutavault
6 Forest
4 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Duress
1 Golgari Charm
1 Consign to Dust
4 Pharika's Cure
2 Doom Blade
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Desecration Demon
2 Dark Betrayal

[cardimage cardname='Abrupt Decay'] [cardimage cardname='Pharika, God of Affliction']

As you can see, this deck closely resembles the fringe Mono-Black Aggro deck that has been floating around the rogue deck universe for about a month. What’s great about adding green is that the game plan becomes all around better against every deck.

Erebos, God of the Dead may be hard to awaken due to there being no good double black creatures in Standard, but my good buddy Lol Troll counts for two devotion and sometime later his friend Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord will join the party as well.

This deck features all the most disruptive elements of black decks, the ability to hit hard and fast with a blitz of creatures, and also a late game plan of a snake token army or using the drain life ability of your lich lord.

Even though this list looks tuned, it is still only version one, so some card choices may need to evolve over the next couple of weeks. Playing an aggro-control deck like this seems like the best way to beat all of the top decks in the current metagame.

This weekend I will be piloting this deck through a few local cash events so next week I should have more information and sweet tournament stories to pass along to you guys.

Financial Tips

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx will be powerful only if M15 and the next block have cards with multiple colors in their cost. Losing Nightveil Specter for instance, drastically neuters Mono-Black and Mono-Blue. I don't think blue is even playable without specter, but black has some decent replacements.

What that means is that the future price trend of this powerful land are uncertain. Even if it is not fully supported it should only drop a few dollars, but if it is supported, it could easily double in value.

Temples – Recently it was posted online, by Aaron Forsythe I believe, that the price of fetches caught wizards off guard and they weren’t planning a fix anytime in 2014. That basically discredits the rumor that fetches will be in m15.

I think this brings more credibility to the possibility that temples will be in double digits when fall comes around. Pay special attention to Temple of Epiphany because it has Modern applications as well as being from Nyx which should help boost the price.

Return to Ravnica Block – The prices on cards from these three sets are already starting their downward trend. Dealers with large stock from this block have drastically reduced their buy prices.

Foils from this block are staying high and moving higher though. The most recent addition to the crazy high-priced foils list is Chromatic Lantern at $25+!

The real estate is where you want to be trading into right now. Shocklands, especially Sacred Foundry, are slowly moving up in price. Lots of authors, myself included, have touted the merits of stocking up on shocks while they are near their lowest point. It’s likely that this is the lowest shocks will ever be so make sure you are stocked up now.

[cardimage cardname='Shadowborn Demon'] [cardimage cardname='Shadowborn Apostle']

Shadowborn Demon – One card seeing recent movement which has flown under the radar is Shadowborn Demon. The Golgari Dredge deck in Standard is playing it, but there is a lot of casual appeal to this card as well due to Shadowborn Apostle.

Over the last couple of weeks, it has doubled in price and the trajectory is already pointing upward. The window to buy in might have been missed but I know I was slow to adjust this price in my own store and other owners may have also overlooked it. It’s very possible that it hits double digits if it keeps trending this way.

Journey Into Nyx – My thoughts on this set financially are not very positive. From my perspective as a shop owner, I want to cut prices on the majority of the new cards. Many of them are not moving at current prices. Ajani, Caller of Heroes and Athreos, God of Passage are moving well, but Mana Confluence and all the other gods need to drop in price before more people will start buying in.

There are only two cards I have increased prices on since release, Prophetic Flamespeaker and Master of the Feast. The majority of the rares in the set, temples excluded, are bad buys right now, so stay away unless you need them for a deck. The average price of the rares in this set started off great at between $2-3, but will settle around $1.5 in the next couple of weeks. Trade for as many of the new temples as possible because their prices should be the highest in the fall for multiple reasons.

A lot has been happening in finance over the last couple of weeks, what else have you guys picked up on?

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Pharika Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Welcome to Theros (Block)

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Did you know that Elspeth, Sun's Champion is so good in Block that there’s been serious discussion about it being banned?

Of course, Wizards didn’t end up going that way in the most recent B&R update, but that should give you the first insight you need into Theros Block Constructed.

On the other hand, why should you even care about Block Constructed?

That, at least, I can answer. Block has usually been a great portent of what’s to come in Standard. But because Block is only played online (and then at a Pro Tour), the prices of the cards in paper remain depressed before shooting up when Block suddenly becomes Standard and those same decks are good.

This doesn’t always hold true, of course. In Innistrad, for instance, Lingering Souls and Intangible Virtue were banned for being oppressive. Souls, at least, went on to be a major player in Standard. So those results weren’t exactly great.

But other seasons have been. Tempered Steel made the transition. So did Oracle of Mul Daya and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Green-White from last year’s Pro Tour-winning deck at least existed in Standard, even if it never took off entirely. But Jace, Architect of Thought sure caught on, and I think we all did well when it went from $6 to $20.

And it was easy to see coming. All you had to do was pay attention to Block.

Now, Journey into Nyx hasn’t fully hit Magic Online yet, so this is a topic we’ll have to revisit again before the Pro Tour. But we do know enough about the format to begin to identify some targets.

So let’s do that.

Archetypes

Aggro

Basically, Block has only a few viable strategies right now. The biggest by far is black-based aggro. Technically we can even call it Devotion thanks to Gray Merchant of Asphodel, but the truth is it’s aggro.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Agent of the Fates

The key cards, and ones that have some great potential in Standard next season, are mostly from Born of the Gods. One of the main ones is Pain Seer, a four-of and a major player. This has to be at or near the top of the list of targets.

Then there's Agent of the Fates. Since it's practically bulk right now it’s definitely worth looking at. That said, it’s probably one of the cards that gets cut as the card pool expands since Nighthowler, Herald of Torment and (possibly) Master of the Feast are also in the deck.

Of these, I still like Herald, though you certainly can’t miss with Agent at bulk rates.

But that’s not the only aggro deck. There’s also white-based variants that either make use of the black engine but add stuff like Eidolon of Countless Battles (a pick I really like) and Hero of Iroas.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eidolon of Countless Battles

These decks also play Fabled Hero, especially the blue-white variants (which aren’t as prevalent). Again, since Born of the Gods represents a better spec opportunity than Theros due to the amount opened, I tend to lean toward the newer cards.

Control

Gild reigns supreme. Maybe not because of its base power, but because it both deals with a threat and accelerates you to the all-important Elspeth, which is the lynchpin the control decks revolve around. These are basically blue-black decks that splash white solely for Elspeth.

The finisher of choice besides the planeswalker? A target we’ve talked about plenty before: Prognostic Sphinx. Now, I got burned on Niv-Mizzet when Aetherling came along and replaced it as a finisher, so I’m a little wary of Sphinx at anything more than bulk prices, especially since it’s from Theros. Still a solid cheap target, but keep that in mind.

Combo

Now it’s not often we see combo being represented in Block, and maybe that’s not the right term, but the fact is Reanimator strategies are very viable in Block.

It’s pretty much all thanks to Whip of Erebos, which makes these decks go. Typically they're junk-colored decks that just use solid value creatures like Courser of Kruphix and Sylvan Caryatid to build toward the endgame, which consists of casting or reanimating Ashen Rider or Abhorrent Overlord.

Overlord was both a promo and a rare from Theros. With that in mind I don’t want any of this card, no matter how solid it is in the deck. I’d rather go all-in on Ashen Rider, which is much more likely to survive the transition to Standard come rotation.

Not only that, but Rider is a solid Commander card that also has fringe Legacy applications. And it’s a mythic. Besides trading into Whips cheaply, Ashen Rider is the card with the most breakout potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashen Rider

Takeaways

Basically, the format revolves around these three strategies right now (Mono-Red occasionally makes appearances). I expect that to change some with Journey into Nyx, but by and large these will still be the major players come Pro Tour time.

If you remember the whole Wolfir Silverheart run of a few years back, you know Block Pro Tours have the potential to seriously spike some cards. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Magic Online in the next two weeks as Journey enters the fray to see how these decks survive that transition. That in turn will frame my prime targets heading into the Pro Tour and the Standard season beyond.

Remember, the market moves incredibly quickly these days, and there’s no guarantee you’ll get the pile of Agent of the Fates you ordered on day one of the Pro Tour. The next week or so is the time to make any moves, so prepare accordingly.

One more tip: I’ve heard some rumblings of Chromanticore possibly being a thing at the Pro Tour, thanks to some pro testing. I won’t discount it but it’s a stretch for now with all the aggro decks running around. That said, better mana and the ability to lean on Anger of the Gods means five-color could be a possibility. Food for thought based on what I’m hearing from a source.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Virtually Infinite–Options for Going Modern

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Today’s article is part four in a series on getting more gaming for your dollar on Magic Online. Part 1 focused on basic tools, Part 2 focused on how to avoid draining your portfolio through drafting, and Part 3 showed how to play Magic Online like an insider—by targeting high-expected value (EV) events such as constructed Daily Events (DEs).

The barrier to playing constructed DEs is the upfront cost of a deck, so at the end of last article I showcased some budget yet competitive Standard and Modern decks you can start playing in Daily Events to build value. I also examined the pros and cons of investing in a deck for Standard vs Theros Block Constructed.

Today I will focus on Modern as a third option. Modern seems a counter-intuitive place to start when looking to play MTGO on a budget, but playing and investing in this format offers some of the best opportunities to go infinite.

Modern is probably the best format for MTGO investment, and buying into a deck gives you a foothold on one of the most profitable card pools. Other Insider articles and forum posts have focused on the benefits of investing in Modern.

In brief, one of the main attractions is Modern’s regular and predictable annual cycles, with peaks during a defined season and valleys in the offseason. The format also contains a number of low-supply cards that can spike under the right circumstances.

Getting acquainted with the Modern market will allow you to capitalize on flashback drafts, taking advantage of most MTGO players' short-term thinking and building long-term value in your collection.

Finally, Modern continues a steady climb in value, so even absent direct speculation the value of your deck should grow.

We will delve deeper into pure investment opportunities in the Modern market in future articles. But for the moment, let’s take a look at some of the pros and cons of investing in Modern from the perspective of a player on a budget (for comparison, check the pros and cons of Standard and Theros Block Constructed here.)

Pros

  • Stability: While Modern sees occasional metagame shifts, the core strategies remain relatively constant. This means that if you invest in a deck today, you are going to be able to play that deck for a long time. You may occasionally add or subtract cards based on changes in the metagame, but need not worry that your whole deck will be invalidated by the printing of a few cards, or by a fall rotation.
  • Opportunity to build expertise: Connected to the point above, there are people who have been playing a core strategy like Affinity or Splinter Twin for several years now. Doing so will allow you to truly master your weapon of choice. Patrick Dickmann’s victory at GP Antwerp last October with Tempo Twin was the result of over a year of testing with the deck, primarily online under his MTGO name “Ofelia”. In his Top 8 interview Dickmann mentioned that he had put in over 1,000 matches with his current build alone! Having a deep knowledge of the deck led him to innovate further, adding green for Tarmogoyf and playing the new version to top finishes at PT Valencia and GP Richmond. This kind of extended familiarity with a deck is hard to get in Standard and impossible in Block.
Patrick Dickmann, right, played a thousand matches on MTGO before hitting PT BNG. He is shown facing off against noted MTGO grinder Michael Hetrick, who is 7-0 with a Living End deck he also mastered online.
  • Portability: Modern is here to stay, and grows in popularity with every major tournament. Every serious Constructed player now has a Modern deck alongside their Standard deck, their Commander deck, and their Legacy deck. That means that your deck is portable, allowing you to play the same 75 at a Grand Prix as in your living room. If you master a deck online, you’ll be able to translate those skills into a place at the top tables.
  • Choice: Modern has dozens of viable deck options, many of which draw on previous strategies from Standard. That means that if you’ve played Magic any time in the past seven years you can probably find a deck that suits your play style and which you are broadly familiar with.
  • Growth trajectory: Modern cards go through cyclical peaks and values, but if you compare them year to year you can see considerable growth. Modern staples basically doubled from 2012 to 2013, and appear on track for 50% growth in 2014. For long-term value, you want to be in Modern rather than Standard or Block.

Modern index since 2012

Cons

  • Cost: On average, a competitive Modern deck will cost you a lot more than a competitive Block Constructed deck, and significantly more than a Standard deck as well. The most expensive Modern decks can top 1000 tix. However, there are many affordable and competitive options that cost less than the average Standard deck, and buying into Modern should not be a barrier to entry for most MTGO players.  In a minute we’ll take a look at some cheap Modern decks and discuss which are best for players buying in today.
  • Convenience: As we noted in the last article, there are 39 Standard Daily Events per week, which means about one DE every four hours. In contrast, there are only 26 Modern events per week. The Modern two-man and eight-man queues fire regularly, though those are lower EV than DEs. In paper, Standard and Legacy remain more popular, reducing some of the advantages of portability described above.
  • Cycles: Playing Modern will require you to stay on top of the Modern cycle. Over the past couple years, Modern prices have hit in-season peaks that are 50% (or more) higher than their out-of-season value (check the historical price trends here.) This is great if you are making your purchase out-of-season. But you will need to manage your collection actively in order to avoid losing value at the end of each season. This stands in contrast to Legacy, which has no regular cycle and which we’ll discuss next week.
  • Reprints: This past year, Wizards has cycled through a series of flashback drafts on MTGO. These have had a dramatic short-term impact on many of the Modern staples. Lorwyn/Morningtide and Shadowmoor/Eventide flashbacks over the past two weeks have created strong targets. As a player/investor, I see these flashbacks as an advantage because they allow me to target cards on the cheap, allowing me to build playsets and increase my bankroll. However, it does mean that you’ll need to stay on top of things in order to maximize your value.

In years past, the Modern season online has corresponded closely with the season for Modern PTQs (in paper and online.) However, earlier this year Wizards announced the suspension of online PTQs until server stability issues are addressed. If online PTQs don’t return in time for paper PTQ season, online Modern prices should be muted, and we won’t see the peaks we’ve become accustomed to.

The good news is that Wizards scheduled several zero-ticket-entry “test” events this week to test “new tools and processes” they are putting in place for PTQ and MOCS events. I expect we’ll see MOCS and PTQs back soon, but even if they don’t return in time for Modern season, it’s clear Wizards wants to see Modern succeed.

I would not be surprised if they bring in some special Modern events, like Gold Queues or other special events, to bring some of the Modern buzz to Magic Online. I also expect we’ll see another Modern Masters flashback draft before or during Modern season, which will allow Wizards to monetize the growth of the format.

Coming soon to a server near you?

Today is a pretty good time to buy into Modern. Modern peaked on March 21, shortly after Pro Tour Journey in Nyx featured Modern as the constructed format, but has fallen 10% since then. The paper Modern PTQ season (feeding Pro Tour “Huey”) starts June 7. Once JOU release events wrap up we should see a steady climb by the Modern index through the summer.

Choosing a Weapon

Modern decks range widely, with competitive decks ranging from 100 to 1000 tix. The main drivers are the mana base (fetches being a major component) and a few chase cards. For the price of a playset of Tarmogoyf or Lily you could build most decks in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf
There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

Here are some deck options grouped by cost:

If Cost Is Not an Issue

RUG Flash            1030.15

B/G Rock                   964.93

URG Tarmo Twin     711.22

Melira Pod              628.31

Tier 1 Decks with a Tier 2 Price Tag

Gifts                             596.48

Aggro Loam               571.97

UWR Control            530.92

U/R Twin                    448.06

A lot cheaper than Tarmo Twin, and with several potent variants.

W/U Control               576.70

Blue Moon                   545.23

Affinity                        409.54

Would be budget if not for the 4x Mox Opal, which comprise half the cost.

U/R Storm                    345.34

Storm rewards extensive play and skill--and costs half as much of many Tier 1 decks.

R/G Tron                      372.72

Tron decks run from dirt cheap to moderate. Different versions share many core cards.

Scapeshift                   378.14

A nice target since the expensive cards (Cryptic Command, Scapeshift and Flooded Grove) are depressed.

Modern Decks With Standard Price Tags

The decks in this tier are especially attractive because they provide Tier-1.5 power at a fairly modest price. The ones in bold are good to target because many of the core cards are “on sale” right now due to flashbacks. If I were new to Modern I'd probably start with one of the decks in this tier.

U/R Delver                   275.19

Very popular lately--easy to build, fun to pilot.

Bogles                        285.94

Dirt cheap except fetches, Leylines, and Daybreak Coronet (which is on sale because of flashbacks).

Ad Nauseam            257.04

Living End                224.89

Key pieces like Living End and Fulminator Mage are "on sale" right now because of flashbacks.

Nyxwave                      287.45

Merfolk                        216.16

Boros Burn                   178.03

Amulet Pact                188.99

This is a powerful deck and includes many cards that will rise during Modern season.

Dredgevine                 239.71

W/U Timewalks           171.67

True Budget Decks

These are rogue strategies or sub-optimum builds that are not top tier but can still be competitive. Mono-Blue is probably most likely to put up results from this tier.

Death and Taxes              154.40

Martyr Proc                       112.20

Soul Sisters                       59.54

Mono-Blue Tron              69.85

One of the cheapest decks to put up consistent numbers in DEs.

Mono-Green Infect            56.36

Mono-Red Aggro               38.46

Finding a Deck for You

As you can see, there are lots of options, and price need not keep you from playing Modern. The most important thing, of course, is to find a deck that you enjoy playing. Life is too short to play decks you don't like. If you have any experience with these budget decks--or have some good options that I missed--please let us know in the comments.

Keep your seatbelt buckled. Next week we take on Legacy--and the impact of Vintage Masters.

- Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)

The Day Everyone Took Their Judge Exam

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You've probably heard the news. If not, wow. The news is very good.

 

There's your news. Boom.

BILLY MAYS HERE WITH A JUDGE FOIL FORCE OF WILL! BUT, WAIT! THERE"S MORE!!!!!!11eleven

Something for Jason Alt. You guys! You shouldn't have!

But the EDH community was not done having gifts bestowed

Awwww yisss!

Very nice!

Swag!

If the Nekusar is swag, this is like, #Yolo420Swag4JesusKony2012 caliber swag. Sure, they bitchslapped Terese Nielsen by replacing her beautiful, iconic Force of Will art with (I love Matt Stewart as an artist and mean no disrespect to him in any way) hot, stinky garbage. But this kind of makes up for it. This is hot. This is "make a new deck" hot.

While not EDH-specific, this Elesh is sexy. This is based on a very famous alter by BlackWingStudios and incorporating this was inspired. I am such a big fan of the concept of taking something iconic from outside Wotc and making it part of official Magic canon. That's positively inspired.

No, turns out not. As MTG Color Pie (@mtgcolorpie) pointed out on Twitter, this is how Elesh was originally spoiled on the Mothership in an article I never read.

Source

So I am way less impressed with Wotc. All they did wrong was not live up to a scenario I invented, but they still disappointed me, and they're just going to have to live with that.

 

Don't play EDH? Don't worry.

BAM. Hawtness.

There is literally something for everyone except for people who don't like fun and hate everything.

Do I wish they had foiled the iconic Terese Nielsen Force? Obviously. Am I in the market for Force of Will right now? Nope! But the rest of that judge pack looks tasty as hell. This is a good thing they've done here. Force of Will's price won't suffer if past judge foil promos are any indication and supply is increased making it a little less impossible to foil out vintage decks (though it will be impossible forever, barring judge foil Underground Sea). They would probably have to pay her again or some noise and I don't care what the rationale for the decision is, I don't like the result. Still, I have more than enough to console me.

What out of this shotgun blast of goodness to the face excites you most?

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: Sideboarding with Modern Izzet Delver

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You may have noticed quite a lot of articles based on sideboarding here at QuietSpeculation--a resource not commonly found on most Magic sites. Personally, I find the effectiveness of this often overlooked tool to be inversely related to the size of a format.

That is to say that I'd be very happy jumping into block constructed with a deck and a guide, whereas I would feel completely unprepared with the same tools in Vintage. I'm of the belief that there is just too much going on in Modern to be ready without knowing the theory behind a sideboard, rather than simply knowing the most anticipated applications.

You're an odds-on favorite to play against at least one deck that your sideboard guide neglected to mention. There's also the fact that sideboarding guides become less useful the more that you deviated from the list that they were written for--especially as the guide ages and the metagame evolves.

For that reason, instead of offering a sideboard guide to be consulted on the fly, I would like to offer the reasons I've constructed my sideboard the way that I have as well as considerations for other cards as a guide to be studied in preparation for an event.

To get started, let's look at the sideboard that I presented last week:

”Izzet Delver”

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Young Pyromancer

Spells

4 Gitaxian Probe
1 Pillar of Flame
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Serum Visions
4 Spell Snare
3 Vapor Snag
4 Mana Leak
1 Remand
1 Echoing Truth

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Arid Mesa
4 Steam Vents
3 Island
2 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Negate
2 Steel Sabotage
2 Spell Pierce
1 Dispel
1 Dismember
2 Molten Rain
1 Combust
1 Hurkyls Recall
1 Magma Spray
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Relic of Progenitus

Now let's talk about why I selected each of these cards.

Negate

Negate is sort of a no-brainer to me. There are quite a few problematic spells in Modern, and by problematic I mean that I lot of them just kill you if they resolve.

This is far from an exhaustive list of things worth Negating. Burn and Hexproof also give incentive to this inclusion, as dealing with any enchantment or burn spell can mean a world of difference in those matchups.

Dispel and Spell Pierce are nice, but Pierce is only effective against particularly spell-saturated decks and decks that try to operated on very little mana, and Dispel, while more efficient, can't handle sorceries or planeswalkers.

Steel Sabotage

The simple truth is that Affinity is strong enough and popular enough to warrant specific hate. I'm not big on having cards for one matchup and one matchup alone, and that's why I chose Sabotage. Specifically, being able to counter some artifacts is much more powerful than being able to destroy them.

Hurkyl's Recall

Annnnnnnnnnnnnd, sometimes you play one slot just for Affinity. They don't really fight fair, so I like having at least one thing that really hoses em. It's possible that there are non-affinity decks that Hurkyl's Recall is good against, but I couldn't even begin to imagine what they'd be. Maybe some poor soul is playing Trading Post?

Spell Pierce

As stated above, this card is for spell-saturated and mana-light decks with important spells. I primarily added Pierce as an efficient way to interact with Hexproof decks. It also has applications against various combo decks as well as Burn. It's pretty useless in grindier matchups, but there are exceptions to be made. In particular, I brought them in against an opponent wielding Smallpox.

Dispel

Fighting counter wars? Burn? Tempo mirror? Instants are the most powerful card type, and often enough there are specific instants that are the most important cards in certain matchups. It's pretty narrow, but there isn't a better card to counter a Lightning Bolt with... Mental Misstep aside...

Dismember

It's really awesome having access to this card with blue decks. This card does work against Twin, Infect, and anything with Tarmogoyf. And I hear that people are playing Phyrexian Obliterator. I like it against any creature deck that isn't burn heavy. The four life is certainly a liability, but it's hard to argue with Dismember's raw efficiency.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dismember

Molten Rain

Initially I included Molten Rain as a way to mess up Tron decks, but it also has some other random value. Killing manlands isn't for nothing. The most creative that I've gotten with Molten Rain was bringing it in on the play against Living End. I figured that having a way to push back their fundamental turn would be useful, and I even won a game off the tempo that a turn three Stone Rain generates. It also might just be right to bring this in against the Green Devotion deck with all those Wild Growth effects.

Combust

This is mostly for ignoring counter-wars against Twin. The other strong consideration for Combust is Restoration Angel, as being able to kill a four-toughness creature at instant speed is an uncommon commodity. And, of course, you bring it in when your opponent plays a lot of blue and/or white creatures. Like Merfolk.

Magma Spray

Kitchen Finks and Voice of Resurgence can be serious problems. While the maindeck features Pillar of Flame, the instant speed is considerably more relevant out of the sideboard. Obviously it's not a boon against Voice, but being able to, say Magma Spray a Kitchen Finks in response to the lifegain trigger when your opponent has an active Birthing Pod makes a world of difference.

Spray will also come in against any aggressive deck with a low curve, and while that's not the most exciting card, it has more utility than just playing something like Burst Lightning.

Engineered Explosives

Yet another card for Hexproof. It also hits tokens, and I'd bring it in against anybody who is heavy on one-drops. In particular, I'd look out for a Wild Nacatl deck filled with Kird Apes and Loam Lions as opposed to one with Knight of the Reliquary and Thundermaw Hellkite. I wouldn't bring it in in order to deal with two drops, as Spell Snare is just going to do a way better job.

Relic of Progenitus

Graveyard strategies aren't especially prevalent in Modern, but they are around enough to warrant some hate.

I like Relic over other options for a few reasons. It can hit the entire graveyard, one copy can fight existing and future cards in graveyards, and it replaces itself when needed. It's also the only kind of graveyard hate that I believe is worth bringing in against decks with only Snapcaster Mage interacting with their graveyard. It's also a nice one to have against Grim Lavamancer, which is starting to matter as the mirror becomes more popular.

Other Options

Of course, all of these spells come together as a tool against the problems that I believe are most likely to need to be addressed. There are quite a few other options, and in such a wide format it's really just impossible to include every card that you could possibly want in your sideboard. The following is not an exhaustive list of possible sideboard options, but it's a pretty long one.

Other Graveyard Hate

All of these options are fine, though their applications are clearly different. It's definitely worth noting that Grafdigger's Cage is completely useless against Living End due to some interesting wording, so don't get caught pants down there.

Decks based entirely on the graveyard just aren't popular enough for me to play any of these over Relic of Progenitus, but Tormod's Crypt would probably be my weapon of choice if they were due to sheer efficiency.

It's tempting to play Surgical Extraction due to synergy with Delver and Snapcaster Mage, but it doesn't do much against Living End and just isn't worthwhile against something like a Gifts Ungiven deck that Relic of Progenitus can hose more completely all while replacing itself.

Blood Moon

Blood Moon turns off all of the Trons and manlands, and can really punish particularly greedy manabases. I personally shy away from cards like Blood Moon as they are high-variance. Fetching for basics, being ahead when the Moon comes down and just drawing enough Urza's Mines to start casting Wurmcoil Engines are all ways to beat Blood Moon, and it's impossible to know exactly how a game is going to play out while you're sideboarding. It's clearly a powerful card, it's just completely outside of my comfort zone.

Electrickery

Electrickery is another option for dealing with tokens, and at times it can be quite effective against Hexproof. It's also a neat little breaker in the mirror. I could see running one copy, though it's pretty narrow so I don't think I'd do two.

Threads of Disloyalty

Pro Tour Born of the Gods champion Threads of Disloyalty is definitely worth a look. I'm not huge on three mana spells, particularly when they don't flip Delver of Secrets, but stealing Tarmogoyf is a big game.

Vedalken Shackles

If you're looking for something a little slower but a little higher impact than Threads, then Vedalken Shackles is a fine option. Shackles has implications against Twin that Threads doesn't, though it can be tough to actually hold a Tarmogoyf with it. It's definitely mana intensive for this deck, but the card's power level is undeniable.

Vendilion Clique

It's a threat and it's solid against decks like Scapeshift that hinge on a specific card. Personally I prefer to just use counterspells, as they force your opponent to commit mana, but a clock with some built-in disruption is certainly worth a look.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vendilion Clique

Counterflux

Counterflux is awesome in the same way that Dispel is, in that it fights counter wars very well, but, unlike Dispel, Counterflux isn't the most efficient way to combat opposing removal spells and burn. It's a catchall and an awesome answer to Snapcaster Mage, with the biggest liability being that it's pretty mana-hungry for this deck. I wouldn't play more than one, but one can be pretty good.

Jace Beleren

I tried this one out for fighting against grindy decks like Jund, but it ended up not playing out the way that I would have liked. -1 makes it weak to Lightning Bolt while +2 makes it weak to Abrupt Decay. I also wanted it against combo decks, but you often can't cast it until you get to five mana for fear of not leaving up counter mana. Jace isn't a terrible option, but I like it more in a deck that's looking to make more land drops.

Swerve

I don't think too many people are seriously considering Swerve, but it can be a complete blowout against Abrupt Decay. Kill my Delver? How about your Goyf.

It's also another option against Burn and can be a surprise one-shot Spellskite against Hexproof and Twin. I think it's too narrow, but the upside can be really high.

Spellskite

Then we have Spellskite proper. This is possibly the best option against Hexproof, though it doesn't do a ton otherwise. You can use it against Twin, but don't be surprised when they're ready with Flame Slash. Against most removal heavy decks they'll be able to kill your Spellskite and your Delver, but I absolutely advocate this card is you're expecting to play against a lot of Hexproof.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellskite

Invisible Stalker

This is another one that I'm stretching on, but I've lost to Jund a lot when they just killed all of my guys. The clock on Stalker is probably just too slow, but if you're playing Sword of Fire and Ice, it might be worth a look.

Sword of Feast and Famine

Speaking of swords, this one is pretty good against combo decks and green decks alike. I shy away from it due to the fact that five mana is tough, but the impact is definitely high.

Echoing Truth

This is a good sideboard option for all of the reasons that I'm maindecking one. It can bounce Pyromancer Ascension or Goblin tokens against Storm and it's just a quality tempo catchall.

Artifact Hate

These are probably the best potential options that I decided against. Sorcery speed makes some of these weaker due to Cranial Plating, Ancient Grudge requires a greedier mana base and I feel like Hurkyl's Recall should do more than Smash to Smithereens' three damage. These are all powerful though, and I'm only really surprised when I see Shatterstorm, as costing four is quite restrictive and sometimes too slow against Affinity.

Mutagenic Growth

While I'm reaching, I might as well really reach. Mutagenic Growth saw maindeck play in some Delver decks while it was in Standard and it can really embarrass a Lightning Bolt. It's pretty narrow, and if it shows up anywhere it should probably be in the maindeck, but I could see it being pretty awesome in the mirror.

Sulfur Elemental

I really like this guy in Legacy, and many of the things that make him good there exist in Modern. Sulfur Elemental can really swing games against Soul Sisters, Tokens and Death and Taxes, though these decks all generally have access to four Path to Exile as well as creatures that can survive despite losing one toughness. It's a strong option, but one that comes with some inherent risks--not the least of which being facing down a single Honor of the Pure.

Batterskull

Batterskull showed up as a one-of in Delver sideboards when it was in Standard, and I wouldn't discount it as a Modern option. You'd only want it for grindy, non-combo matchups, but it does offer you some inevitability there. It's an interesting option against Jund, as they can often just kill all of your guys. Batterskull forces them to have exactly Maelstrom Pulse... or a 4/5+ Tarmogoyf... Baneslayer Angel can race Progenitus though, so I wouldn't discount this option entirely.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Batterskull

But What Do I Board Out?

This question, more than anything, is where experience with the deck is going to help more than a simple sideboard guide. Especially considering that the card you board out most often is Gitaxian Probe. It's pretty obvious where Vapor Snag and Pillar of Flame are going to be terrible, and those are the most common cards that I board out after Probe. Ultimately, the answer to this question is dependent on your specific 75 and the game plan that you're trying to craft for every matchup.

I hope that this look at sideboard options is helpful, and am very interested in hearing feedback with regard to providing this type of content. Love it? Hate it? Let me know!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

Insider: Trading Etiquette

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Welcome back readers/speculators!

Today's article will focus on a concept that may or may not be obvious. Many will find my points as "well, duh" statements--but it's becoming increasingly apparent that plenty of traders out there have no idea about proper trading etiquette. Today I'd like to talk about some of these principles, and blah blah blah...

1. Don't Request Cards You Can't Afford

This should seem obvious--like really, really obvious. I do remember my younger days when my collection was heavily limited by my allowance ($2 a week, so for anyone bitching about how they can't afford this game, there's your baseline--I could buy one pack every two weeks). But just because you see something valuable that you want, don't go with an "ooh...is that for trade?" and then hand them a small binder of bulk rares (unless you have enough to actually get the card at bulk rates).

The same goes for posting your want list online. People will contact you offering the cards you want and get upset when you're reply is...well I don't really have anything to trade for it.

I'm sure all those other people have all of a sudden become ridiculously benevolent beings and are happy to give you what you really want for nothing in return. If for some reason they aren't that way, all you've done is alienate yourself from future trades with every single person offering.

For a fun example here's a recent one for me:

Person A: (posting on Facebook group) I'm looking for a few Atheros's and Mana Confluence.

Me: I happen to have both available, do you have any of the new Temples?

Person A: Yes, I have 2x Temple of Malady.

Me: Well I need those, what else do you have to make up the difference.

Person A: Nothing else.

Me: Well I'm happy to take cash to make it up.

Person A: I'm broke.

th_cartman_angry

Now I know there are some people who are going to push back and say, "Well what if you do happen to run into that person who'll trade their Underground Sea for your 10 standard rares?" The chances of that occurring are so low that this argument is meaningless to me.

2. Don't Interrupt a Trade to Start Your Own

I've had this occur on several occasions and it's always annoying for one of the trade partners. Often during trades (especially larger ones) people mention what they are looking for out loud. If you happen to have that card, the appropriate time to bring it up is not immediately after they mention it.

You can say something quick like, "Oh, I have that," but certainly don't try to start your own trade while two people are in the middle of one. This is just common courtesy.

When I'm near someone who is in the middle of a trade and mentions they are looking for something, first I allow their current trade partner to speak up. If they have it, then I'm not interrupting their trade. If they don't then I may or may not tell them I do and to see me afterwards (this depends on the trade in question and whether I know the people trading.)

3. Don't Pull Out Cards Before Asking

People have different opinions on trading. While it's often easier for both people to pull out what they want and do comparisons when everyone is done, there are problems to this approach.

  • If the trade falls through you each now have to put everything back. The more organized your binder(s) the more annoying/time consuming this can be.
  • Cards on the table can easily be knocked over, spilled on, forgotten, etc.
  • Thieves often have several strategies for ripping you off once your cards are out of the binder. When "putting cards" back into your binder they may drop or slide them down. Or when they pile a bunch of cards together, they may slip valuable cards in among the pile.
Can you spot the valuable card?
Can you spot the valuable card?

 4. Determine Your Price Strategy Before Starting the Trade

This is critical because it lets you know what to expect from your trade partner. A lot of people will say something like, "It doesn't matter which site as long as we use the same one". This is a trigger for smart traders.

We've discussed numerous times on the forums strategies for these situations.

  • If they want to use SCG prices, then target higher-dollar Legacy and Modern cards. The reason is simple, the spread between SCG and TCG Player for lower-dollar or Standard rares tends to be higher than the spread for higher-dollar eternal cards. While the prices may be higher across the board (though not in all cases), it makes mathematical sense to trade 10x $5 (SCG price) cards for a $50 (SCG price) card if the TCG price for the same cards are 10x $4 cards for a $45 card. In this instance you'll never want to pull out Standard cards from their trade binder, unless you really need them.
  • If they want to use buylist prices (it's rare, but does happen), then it pays to know your buylist spread, from MTG.GG typically. I will go with one or two buylists, if readily available, and target the cards with the lowest spreads.

5. Know What You Want for Your Cards

While I don't blame people for looking up rarer cards, I do find it annoyingly time-consuming when someone feels the need to look up 20-30 cards (unless they can do it very quickly). I know that nowadays people are so concerned about being ripped off that they feel the need to play it safe by looking everything up. This tether to technology can make trades go very slowly.

I realize that the concern of being wrong will cause even more experienced traders to doubt themselves and look cards up. One of the useful tricks I've found is to look up the cards you're most likely to target the night before. It isn't likely that the card suddenly spikes or plummets within 24 hours (though if you hear a lot of people asking for a specific card it's a good idea to look it up during some free time).

6. Always Thank Someone for Letting You Look

This is most often just a common courtesy when you don't find anything you need in a trade binder. This is as a sign of respect for someone who has sacrificed their time to let you see their binder.

7. Trade with One Person at a Time

This serves two purposes. When you trade with someone you're both spending time and attention on the other. Focusing on the one trade is a sign of respect. Think of it like a date; it's hardly good form to hit on the wait staff.

The second reason is to protect yourself. As I've discussed in a previous article, it's much easier to be ripped off or robbed if you aren't paying attention. While I understand there's often a desire not to "miss out" on a trade while the next person waits (assuming they followed rule #2), you'll be fine. I've found that even larger trades don't take longer than 10-15 minutes.

The MODO Beta Update

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Are you a MODO Beta user?

Good news - you're ahead of the pack.

Coming soon, the Beta will soon be the.... er, the regular MTGO I guess?

This article on the Mothership today runs through the whole deal, but here are some highlights.

 

 

A "spotlight" Journey into Nyx Prerelease week featuring the Beta as the client will take place after Wednesday's downtime. Participants will get a free Eidolon of Blossoms promo for downloading and using the Wide Beta client. This is going to happen sooner or later, so might as well get yourself a promo.

They are scaling up to try and make sure the client is stable at all of their milestones and so far it's looking good. The transition to the new client is expected to be smooth, but we'll believe that when we see it, won't we?

Have you been using the Beta or do you plan to soon? When you do, take this survey to help them improve. Here is another feedback form.

Also forthcoming are aesthetic changes to the battlefield which will give the player unprecedented Feng Shui control and information. Mouseover info, rearrangement, sticky settings; the works.

The official launch is several months off, but with updates coming every two weeks, why not secure yourself a promo and get with the program early? Love the Beta client or hate it, it's going to be the new boss soon, and as much as it's the same as the old boss, it's still better that you got acquainted now.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Slave of Bolas: I Never Knew

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We all know there's been a big push to tell more stories with Magic. Wizards wants self-contained stories on the cards, and they go out of their way to make sure they get an opportunity to do that.

All of which makes a lot of sense on something like Innistrad. But thanks to a friendly user on Reddit, I now know the story behind an older card: Slave of Bolas.

Turns out there's more to this art than meets the eye. Who knew?

I'm not an art guy, besides the fact that I use it to recognize cards. But I'm always impressed when I am forced to look more closely at the art, whether it's through the Arcana or something else. In this case, this post breaks down the story Slave of Bolas is telling, and it's one that I found pretty cool.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Casual, Feature, FreeTagged 3 Comments on Slave of Bolas: I Never Knew

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Insider: A Treatise on the Superintendence and Dispositione of Bulke Magic Cards

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Welcome back, readers.

I'm sure I have attracted a non-trivial following in my years writing for Quiet Speculation. Like, I'm really sure of it--this following has literally followed me to other venues, where a lot of you read and comment on my offerings. Thank you for the support.

Still, while I have a following here, I imagine a non-zero number of you didn't start reading my writing until I transitioned to the paywall side of the site. You don't care about my personality or writing style, you're reading because you paid for an Insider subscription, and you'll be damned if you won't get every penny's worth by reading everything behind the paywall. That's a good thing--it's that kind of attitude we'll need to channel today.

Last week's article covered the easy way to deal with bulk. It's not the most profitable, but it's so easy. When you have enough bulk, it can be as easy as waiting for someone to come to you and pick it up.

However, for some of you, buying bulk for $4/thousand cards and picking it, then selling it for $5/thousand cards is a poor value proposition. The time you invest in picking and sorting doesn't seem worth it if the worst-case scenario is that we make $1/thousand cards. If you're not buying cards by the hundred thousand, that likely works out to you paying yourself $0.50 an hour, and if I wanted to make that kind of money, I'd assemble iPads.

You can't count on everyone you buy from to be terrible at picking their bulk before they sell it and you can't count on Craigslist collections with tens of thousands of cards to come along three times a week.

Since we're unlikely to be able to get away with paying much less than $4/thousand cards, we're going to have to increase the value equation on the other end to make it worth our while, namely selling for more than $5/thousand. In order to do that, we're going to need to get creative.

Change Your Role

If you're buying bulk at $4/thousand in collections or just wholesale from other players and turning it around and shipping to a dealer for $5/thousand, you're taking on some sort of bizarre middleman position. If the sellers at $4/thousand were savvier they would pick the stuff better and sell directly to the dealers you want to ship to for $5 themselves. You're doing a job no one needs to do and not being compensated very well for it.

Granted, that is only in cases where the cards are already entirely picked and you're not making your money by pulling the copies of Fabricate and Dragon Arch out of the bulk, but it's still something that has happened a non-zero number of times to me.

Your role as an unnecessary middleman necessarily is an endangered one, so let's look at transitioning out of that role.

The good news about shedding this role is that when you get your new workflow established, you can benefit from those juicy scenarios where you're buying totally unsorted cards full of good stuff on Craiglist or however you get collections. Since your buy-in cost is the same but your end-step process is going to net you more money, you're just going to start making more money in general.

Sure, it's easier to just ship at bulk rate, but even in the scenarios I discussed where we're shipping at bulk rates, we talked about optimizing by picking out just the uncommons and the basic land, and if you're going to do that much work, there should be a bit more upside. When you have the mechanisms in place to out bulk more efficiently, you'll probably want to always do it this way.

So if I know both ways to do it, why do I still ship at $5/thousand? The short answer is that it's so much faster. It's easier, but easy isn't necessarily a good selling point when the other side of that equation is "makes you less money". The fact that my sales are guaranteed and I can move 100,000 cards with one phone call appeals to me.

Now, since it's rare that I'll accumulate 100,000 cards as the result of getting in collections, I can afford to invest some more time in a more efficient process. Still, if you don't want to sit on cards and just move a ton in an afternoon, there are merits to the other method.

So if we don't want to be a middleman, who do we want to be? The answer should be obvious--we want to be the people to whom we're selling cards for $5/thousand.

If they buy bulk from me, they know it's pure bulk. I am not going to make very many mistakes in picking because I tend to over-pick, which costs me a bit of time but leads to fewer situations where I'm shipping cards that aren't pure bulk.

Still, they willingly shell out that much money for the cards. They don't do that to turn around and sell for $5/thousand to someone else. They are doing something more efficient with the cards than all that, and it's important to see what they're doing and see if we can't do it ourselves.

Untitled

Some quick eBay searching shows that people are shipping their bulk in creative ways, and their creativity in packaging is exceeded only by their creativity in pricing. It's hard to tell what's selling here and what's an unrealistic price.

Let's take a look at some completed listings.

Untitled

This guy has a formula that seems to work. He's charging $8 for shipping on top of the listing price, which should make him a little extra money if he ships for cheaper. By weight, 1000 cards isn't going to cost that much to ship and there are flat-rate options available. Let's check out Amazon, too, and see if anyone there has something that works.

Untitled

This listing comes up when you search Amazon for "Gaming Etc" or "Troll and Toad" or any other dealer who buys for $5/thousand.

If you pay $5/thousand cards for bulk, throw in $2.50 for bulk rares and sell for $22, you're making real money. If you are in the "Fulfillment by Amazon" program, Amazon is going to take a big bite, but they are also going to deal with shipping to the consumer.

You make up a ton of these lots, ship them all to Amazon and then sit back and wait for a check to come in every month. Amazon will ship them to the consumer for you, handle the customer service for the most part and will store any number of these lots as you send them until they sell.

An afternoon's worth of work packing 1,000-card lots is going to pay huge dividends. You can fit a lot of 1,000-card boxes in a flat rate USPS box to ship to Amazon, negating some of your costs that way as well. You may not like how big a bite Amazon takes and you may like handling the shipping yourself so you can overcharge a bit to help defray some of your other costs.

Making Tyler Durden Proud

If Amazon and eBay don't appeal to you, there is another option. You know that line in "Fight Club" about Tyler Durden selling soap made from liposuctioned fat to department stores--"he was selling their own fat asses back to them"? I can't help but be reminded of that line when I deal with bulk lots. Why?

I sell them on Craigslist.

Once or twice a year, I get the inclination to make up bulk lots of a thousand or two thousand cards and list them for sale on Cragislist as "Instant Collections". I get a lot of interest from casuals who like being able to buy so many cards at once. For them, opening a box is like opening a million booster packs, especially with the prospect of there being rares inside.

There are hundreds of deck ideas, brand new cards, copies of cards they want more copies of and hours of entertainment. These people are totally uncynical and wide-eyed and their enthusiasm for the game makes me nostalgic for the days when buying such a modest collection for such a modest amount of money was the most excitement I could wrap my head around.

While some of the lots I make up may sit in my basement collecting dust and I will have to frequently refresh the Craigslist listing, it's such a small amount of work and such a high return that it's worth doing for sure. You can basically make up any price and as long as it sounds like a good deal to someone who normally buys their cards by the deckbuilder's-toolkitfull, they will sell eventually.

You're basically turning bulk (assfat) into a product that appeals to a segment of the Magic-playing population (soap) and being compensated for it. It's more work than just shipping for $5/thousand, and you have to do a rough sort to make sure you don't ship the same guy 49 Slash Panthers, but I think it is worth doing to an extent.

I don't reserve all of my bulk for lots and I don't ship all of my bulk at $5/thousand just to be rid of it. A hybrid approach has served me well over the years, and since I have been fortunate enough to buy some very large collections with very large volumes of bulk, I have had the luxury of having enough cards to experiment with.

Buying collections on Craigslist, stripping them and moving the bulk back to the same type of players is a great way to use your expertise to take the kinds of cards you can make money from and replace them with the kinds of cards that your buyers want.

Other Venues

Craigslist isn't the only good venue for these instant collections either. I have found that putting about five or so in the case at my LGS where I sell singles will attract attention. Posing a description of what the box contains next to it is usually sufficient as the concept sells itself.

I include 20 of each basic land sometimes but they sell so quickly I can't tell whether or not that has a noticeable effect on sales. I also include about 10 rares, but sometimes I "accidentally" include more than 10. I have used this method to get rid of rares that are damaged and therefore not going to sell for even the bulk rare rate, and one week it had the effect of one of the buyers returning to the store with friends and buying me out of stock on instant collections.

Apparently 10 rares is just about right--11 or 12 is a huge mistake on my part that must be taken advantage of before I get wise and count up the rares in each box to make sure I didn't accidentally include an extra 10 cents' worth of value. These collections served to get people interested in building decks, and once they did, my case full of singles was right next to where they'd gotten the collections.

One final bit of advice is something I saw a store do but haven't attempted myself, which is to guarantee a planeswalker in each instant collection. Just guarantee a planeswalker of some kind in every instant collection, make sure that they aren't all Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded and charge $10 more than you would ordinarily for the set.

You can include very good planeswalkers and still come out ahead because you are charging essentially retail on a planeswalker that they don't even get to select, and you're making your money on a ton of bulk they have to buy to get it. It won't appeal to competitive players, but bulk lots aren't for them anyway.

I already target every single planeswalker I come across in binders, and if you start doing this you'll realize just how many there are and how inexpensive some have become.

The kind of player who is excited about an instant collection is going to flip their absolute $&^* over a planeswalker, and this guaranteed inclusion may urge some fencesitters into buying, even at a higher price. Include a healthy mix of both kids of lots to make sure you don't alienate the budget-conscious shopper and you should have no trouble getting rid of lots and lots of bulk.

Including 10 rares in a set right next to the box in your case where you charge $1 for a rare will naturally encourage the buyer to assume that the value of the box is quite high since there is an automatic $10 of value just in rares when in reality, slotting in 10 rares only costs you a buck.

Not the End

There are other ways to deal with bulk as well, but this should get you started thinking about how you might want to approach it. It's not all shipping for $5/thousand, and if you're willing to do a little work sorting, it can pay off big in the end.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Bulk, Finance, Free Insider, SellingTagged , , , , , , 6 Comments on Insider: A Treatise on the Superintendence and Dispositione of Bulke Magic Cards

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