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Return to the PPTQ Grind: Final

Posted on September 18, 2018 by David Ernenwein

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And so, the season comes to a close. While I didn't get there, I can't say that this season was a complete bust. As a consummate grinder, the near misses just fuel the competitive fire and are a stark reminder to keep pushing myself.

In the meantime, Guilds of Ravnica spoilers roll on. While there are a number of interesting Modern-playable cards in the set, I find the mechanics themselves drawing most of my attention. Surveil in particular looks to be incredibly powerful. It's arguably better than scry because cards in the graveyard are generally more valuable than cards in the library (case in point: dredge and delve). What interests me most is whether surveil is powerful enough as a graveyard enabler to make otherwise overcosted cards playable. Testing will tell.

The Deck

Prior to the tournament I struggled with my deck choice. Spirits is a solid deck and in the right field it can be a nightmare but I hadn't found a good strategy for the hardest matchups, specifically Mardu Pyromancer and Hollow One. The problem was that the deck that has a good plan against those decks, Jeskai Tempo, is really poorly positioned otherwise, especially now that the other control players are aware of the Geist plan. After spending the week failing to conclusively make a decision, I stuck with my mainstay.

UW Spirits, David Ernenwein (PPTQ Quarterfinals)

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer

4 Selfless Spirit

4 Rattlechains

4 Supreme Phantom

2 Remorseful Cleric

2 Phantasmal Image

4 Spell Queller

4 Drogskol Captain

2 Geist of Saint Traft

1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Hallowed Fountain

4 Seachrome Coast

4 Flooded Strand

3 Cavern of Souls

3 Ghost Quarter

2 Plains

1 Island

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence

3 Leyline of Sanctity

2 Rest in Peace

2 Blessed Alliance

2 Negate

2 Damping Sphere

1 Echoing Truth

The Leylines were a last-second addition based on what I thought the field looked like. I don't know a better answer for targeted discard.

The Tournament

I was expecting an enormous turnout for the last Modern PPTQ, but it's shockingly small at only 27 players for five rounds. It's especially weird considering that every other PPTQ I went to this season was at least six rounds. The only rational explanation I can come with is the 10 AM start time put a lot of players off. It was also Store Championship day for many, and it's possible that some grinders chose to go play Standard instead of Modern, as incomprehensible as that sounds to me. On the other, less rational hand, the venue is in a somewhat odd and isolated place for western Denver. It's in the middle of a residential area quite far from major roads, which could make it difficult for non-local players to make the trip. I live relatively close by, so I wouldn't know.

I didn't get a good read on the room prior to the tournament. I saw a few known Tron and Company players, one combo, and several Mardu Pyromancer pilots. I also saw a WB deck getting sleeved up, making me think it was Tokens again. In truth, it was an Enchantment prison deck, but I wouldn't find out until round 2. This made me think that creature decks were sweepers would be good were rare, so I adjusted my board against discard. As it turned out, I should have stuck to my guns; my read was very off and creature decks were everywhere. Metagaming is always a risk.

The Swiss

Because of the small turnout, I recognize most of the players, even if I don't know what they are playing. For round 1 I pair against the Tron player from Week 3, and I fully expect her to still be on mono-Green Tron. Indeed, she has turn three Tron with Expedition Map, but then casts Thought-Knot Seer. That should maybe raise a red flag, but I win too easily to really think about it. I'm punished game 2 when I mulligan to a hand that's great against Tron, but she's actually playing Eldrazi Tron. I fix my sideboarding and win game 3 after Phantasmal Imageing her turn two Seer to take Reality Smasher, the lynchpin of her hand.

I recognize my round 2 opponent's name, but I'm not sure why, as I don't recognize him. Maybe I've played him before and just don't remember his face? This nagging thought distracts me the whole match. It turns out he's also on UW Spirits, and I have the first true mirror with the deck. I expected it to be just like the Merfolk mirror, where preponderance of lords wins. It is, and he had that games 1 and 3.

Now having faced two creature decks in a row, I'm really being punished for taking out anti-creature sideboard cards. Slaughter the Strong in particular would have wrecked my Sprits opponent.

Round 3 is against Humans. It's also the same Humans player I seem to keep hitting from Week 5. Game 1 I mulligan to an average hand, and he's got a great hand with multiple Mantis Riders to wall my creatures and overrun me. Game 2 he's relying on Auriok Champion to buy him the life to get his slow hand moving, but I have the lords to wreck that plan. Game 3 is a nail-biter since I have lords against a huge Champion of the Parish. I barely get there with strategic chumps and Queller on Lieutenant. While I never lost to him this season, the matches kept getting closer.

The last time I saw my round 4 opponent he was playing Mardu Pyromancer, so I was dreading this match. It turned out he was on UR Thing in the Ice, which is incredibly good for me. Game 1 I get Geist down with Cavern of Souls and he has no answer. I keep deploying Selfless Spirits in case he has Anger of the Gods or similar, but he never sees them. Game 2 he double mulligans and is stuck on one land.

The standings show that there is no clean break for Top 8, and there are too many 3-1's who will be playing for any except the undefeated players to draw. Thus, I play round 5 against Hollow One. Game 1 I discard my gas to Burning Inquiry and he has it all. Game 2 I have Rest in Peace, as well as Negate on Goblin Lore to strand his big threats in hand. Unfortunately, he has a lot of removal to keep me from blocking his Flamblade Adepts.

I figure I'm out at this point, but the math ends up working out for one 3-2 to make it in. Apparently it was possible for one table of 3-1's to draw in, and nobody saw it. I am that 3-2 thanks to most of my opponents also making it in. Given what I knew about the other Top 8 players and that I'd always be on the draw, I didn't like my chances.

The Top 8

I forgot to get all the Top 8 decks, but I did see the Eldrazi Tron deck from round 1, the UW Spirits deck from round 2, the Hollow One deck from round 5, Lantern Control, Living End, and then Counters Company. I was paired against the undefeated Company deck and just got crushed. This version has not just the Devoted Druid combo but the Kitchen Finks infinite life one. Game 1 I stop the Druid combo with Path, but the turn after, he has Finks and Chord through Wanderer to gain infinite life. I had Vial on two but no Remorseful Cleric to stop him. Game 2 I mulligan, and he again goes for infinite life and Companies into multiple Finks so I can't effectively disrupt him.

Final Lessons

Another season come and gone, and I just didn't make it. It's frustrating to miss your goals, but this isn't my first rodeo. It took over a decade of near misses for me to make my first Pro Tour, so I've learned to redirect my thoughts from that failure to the successes along the way. Looking over my overall performance, I have to say that this was a very successful season. I had a string of Top 8 finishes, and the credit prizes mean I won't have to actually pay to play Magic locally for some time. Once I got my head out of the clouds and actually focused on the game, my play was generally very good, and I've identified a number of areas where I can still improve. The lesson I hope every grinder learns from this series is that ambition and high standards are important, but unchecked, can also lead to disappointment and frustration. Enjoying the little victories and taking success where you can prevents burnout and makes the game more enjoyable.

On The Deck

UW Spirits is the real deal. As a disruptive aggro deck, it is at least as good as Humans. I know that I'm biased since Spirits has been my pet deck for years, but the evidence is becoming undeniable. Whether the deck will continue along the path I chose, pure Bant, or if the hybrid version is still unclear. In a control-heavy field like I saw week 6, UW is definitely the superior deck. In an open field, it's far harder to say, and more work is required to figure it out.

The main problem with Spirits remains the sideboard. While I went off Worship week 6 because Humans and Burn were ready for it, I appear to be the only one to feel this way. Spirits really struggles against Hollow One not because of the big threats, but because of their ability to go wide with hard-to-block Adepts. Given that I haven't solved this problem any other way, it may be correct to become a creature prison deck after board. Rather than try to win by removing threats and racing, my normal plan, perhaps I should be focused on hitting a hexproof threat and then locking them out with Worship. I'll win the long game thanks to having more fliers. This represents a radical repositioning effort, but it's worth a shot.

Until We Grind Again

This season may be over, but the drive lives on. I have one more shot at the LCQ later this year, so I'm not out yet. That said, it is also time to say farewell to the current PPTQ system. Wizards intends to scrap it next year, and at time of writing, the new one has not been revealed. Goodbye, PPTQs! You truly were a grind.

How Assassin’s Trophy Will Change Modern – and How You Can Profit from It

Posted on September 18, 2018September 17, 2018 by Brian DeMars

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One of the tactics I often use when writing Magic content is to consider: “What is the biggest and/or hottest story in Magic right now?” and then try to address that topic in a unique way. Well, it didn’t feel too difficult to put my finger on the hottest subject in the game today:

I woke up this morning and had so many notifications on my phone that I was actually a little worried that something awful may have happened! "Is it World War 3?!" Nope, just Assassin's Trophy. What a relief that the world as we know it isn’t over and that the Golgari have a really exciting new Modern staple!

Let’s start by getting the obvious out of the way: Yes, the card is going to be a Constructed powerhouse across a wide array of formats. Just look at the card, the cost, and the text, and it is clear this is a great mana rate for a desirable, powerful, and flexible effect – and in a popular color combination for Modern play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abrupt Decay

There was an error retrieving a chart for Maelstrom Pulse

It’s a little weird to be getting another busted control card that pushes the give-an-opponent-a-basic-land downside – there are already so many (Ghost Quarter, Field of Ruin, and Path to Exile), but that is what the card does! With so many good basic land-related effects piling up, perhaps that is a good angle to start speculating along in the future: things with basic-land synergies.

Analyzing the Card

The most exciting part about this card is – well – basically everything.

The cost is pushed to the limit: a two-mana instant that answers any permanent (even lands!) The flexibility of dealing with anything for two mana, in a color combination that wants to kill things, is crazy good. I also believe that the card shores up known weaknesses for the Golgari tribe in Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Golgari-based decks, including Jund and Abzan, have been on the downswing ever since UW Control has surged into popularity on the heels of the Jace, The Mind Sculptor unbanning and printing of Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. Golgari decks aren’t exactly known for their nimbleness in the red zone, and a powerful planewalker backed up by a Terminus or a few removal spells can drown a The Rock deck in card advantage in the blink of an eye.

Or how about this scenario: the UW deck taps out for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria on turn five, uses the plus-one to draw a card and untap two lands, and then Logic Knots your Maelstrom Pulse. So awkward. So annoying. But no more!

Azorious Walkers have put The Rock decks in a difficult position over the past two months. GB needs to play removal for fast creature decks (as does UW), but between playing discard, cheap removal, and threats of its own, GB doesn’t have a ton of space for multiple copies of cards that deal with resolved planeswalkers such as Maelstorm Pulse or Never // Recover.

The great thing about Assassin's Trophy is the card is a good enough at being a cheap removal spell that we can play many copies without bloating up the deck with expensive CMC spells, which keeps the critical mass of cheap removal and answers to planeswalkers, enchantments, lands, and artifacts much, much higher than ever before. In a BG deck, the overall converted mana cost of spells goes down, as the number of flexible answers actually increases, which is very happy news for fans of BGx.

It’s not just murdering Teferi with the untap trigger on the stack that I’m excited about:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blood Moon

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ensnaring Bridge

There are plenty of great artifacts and enchantments (alongside busted blue planeswalkers!) that make having flexible removal like this a total asset over the course of a 15-round tournament.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Search for Azcanta

Remember how annoying it was to draw Abrupt Decay the turn after an opponent’s Search For Azcanta flipped? Never again. Assassin's Trophy can hit lands as well! However, before you get too excited about Stone Rain aggro, remember the opponent also gets to search up a basic land. However, against decks that don’t play basic lands, the Stone Rain for value could be very real. It's just another option offered up by a very useful spell two mana spell!

Basically, for all of the reasons I’ve mentioned, we can safely assume that the card will see considerable tournament play in Standard and Modern for years to come. It is a unique effect, in the sense that it is so flexible, and surprisingly cheaper than any other comparable effect. So: it’s better and cheaper than other cards that perform a similar effect.

Trade Goal-Garis

I think it is very reasonable to assume that Assassin's Trophy will be a major player coming down the pipeline in the fall. It just makes sense to target black-green cards now, since it is very likely that Assassin's Trophy will improve black-green's stock in the fall.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, the Last Hope

Liliana is always one of the focal points of any good BG-based midrange deck. Three-mana planeswalkers obviously pack a punch, but Liliana is particularly synergistic in a grindy BG discard shell. Liliana has always been one the best cards in BGx, and I’d expect the prices of these to tick up on the heels of such a powerful new printing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Flayer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Confidant

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

Two-drops: you need ‘em, Golgari has ‘em.

You merely need to look at the best three options to realize that BG has a literal embarrassment of riches in the two slot. Grim Flayer has always impressed me as a beefy, card advantage-providing creature. Goyf is Goyf. It is also worth noting that Dark Confidant may improve marginally in new BG decks, since more expensive spells like Maelstrom Pulse can now be replaced with a cheaper spell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

Thoughtseize is another card that I’d expect to go up in value if BG becomes better. The same can be said of Inquisition of Kozilek. One-mana discard spells, leading to the ability to pick apart an opponent’s strategy before it is ever played, is the calling card of the Golgari.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hissing Quagmire

The next card I love as a pick. I’ve actually picked up several playsets of the card over the past week because I thought it was a good speculation target before Assassin's Trophy was revealed.

Now it feels even better. The BG creature land is one of the best ones in Modern. It sees a ton of play and is in one of the best color configurations for playing creature lands. BG feels deep enough to field an unbelievably well-rounded deck without splashing a third color, which makes Quagmire a great pick-up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Field of Ruin

Another card that feels well-positioned before the new printing, and even better after, is Field of Ruin. I’ve had multiple people describe the card to me in terms of “a Top 5 Format-Defining Modern Card.” I don’t disagree – it is a huge role player

I think it gets even better in a BG deck with this new printing. You can sort of overload “giving opponent basics” to the point where many decks will simply run out. Alternatively, consider that in most matchups, you don’t card about their lands, just their threats.

I think I've made a good case that Assassin's Trophy will have a big impact, particularly in Modern. It isn’t just that the card is inherently great, but it is great in a way that straight-up helps seal up a known weakness of the archetype, planeswalkers.

I like staying ahead of the curve on a card like this, and simply picking up extra copies of the best-positioned cards to fight alongside it. I love the idea of straight GB “good stuff,” and my picks reflect that dynamic in a direct way. However, I think the same could be said about moving into Abzan or Jund for potential picks: Bloodbraid Elf, Siege Rhino, and even Lingering Souls. If Assassin's Trophy makes it better, it is probably a solid speculation target!

What cards, strategies, and synergies are you looking at in light of Assassin's Trophy?

Unlocked: A Look at Gold-Bordered Cards

Posted on September 17, 2018September 17, 2018 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Last weekend I was browsing MTG Stocks’s All Time High / All Time Low page in the hopes of discovering an inspiring article topic. It didn’t take long—turns out the top few cards on the “highs” list all had an obvious trait in common:

World Championship Decks are on the move, it seems. I suppose this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Card Kingdom has had some of these cards on their hotlist for a while now, and the numbers always impressed me. After all, these cards aren’t tournament playable. Then again, neither are Collectors’ Edition cards and those have all gone through the roof.

Are these prices real, though? I mean, isn’t black-bordered Decree of Justice worth far less than the $9 cited for the gold-bordered version above? Are these cards due for another surge? Maybe this is how frustrations with Wizards’s reprint policy is manifesting itself, and prices will continue to climb upwards?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Decree of Justice

This week I want to do a deeper dive to see if I can uncover any insights into this once-forgotten group of cards.

A Little History

If you only care about the finance portion of this article, feel free to skip this section. I suspect many readers won’t know where these gold-bordered cards came from (or even about their existence). According to the MTG Wiki, “World Championship Decks were specially packaged versions of four of the top ranked decks used during World Championships, released by Wizards of the Coast for the years 1997-2004.” All the cards were gold-bordered and not legal for tournament play. But otherwise they look and feel like a regular Magic card.

The date range above is very compelling for two reasons. First, the span of eight years tells me the diversity of gold-bordered cards that must exist will be wide. The cards played in World Championships Seattle in 1997 must look very different from the ones played in 2004 in San Francisco. And second, cards like these haven’t been printed in over a decade. We all know how rare cards are from the early 2000s relative to today’s print runs, and I’m confident these were printed in limited numbers to begin with.

While print runs aren’t available, we can judge relative rarity by exploring which desirable cards show up in more than one deck and which do not. For example, Gaea's Cradle—the most valuable gold-bordered card—shows up in only one deck: Matt Linde’s Mono-Green Stompy list from 1999. Perhaps it wouldn’t be a $50+ card if the card was played as in other lists. At least the deck ran the full playset.

The last thing worth mentioning as background is the decision to discontinue World Championship Decks. The reason cited: the introduction of the Fat Pack "gobbled up" demand for these preconstructed decks. The demand just wasn’t strong enough—this is another data point to suggest this set’s limited run.

The Relevant Cards

The easiest way to identify the noteworthy cards from these preconstructed decks is to browse Card Kingdom’s buylist. I count six cards that buylist for ten bucks or more:

Gaea's Cradle: $44
Academy Rector: $18.50
Vampiric Tutor: $14
Volrath's Stronghold: $10
Arcbound Ravager: $10
Replenish: $10

Clearly, Gaea's Cradle is the king of gold-bordered cards by a wide margin. But it should be obvious why: it’s a highly desirable card for Commander (often, an unsanctioned format) and its black-bordered counterpart is a small fortune! In fact, you can say the same for the rest of that list. Well, maybe besides Arcbound Ravager. That one is in just 800 EDH REC lists—I honestly don’t know why that one stands out, since its value is driven mostly from Modern.

But the rest of the cards on the above list all make sense. When playing EDH, gold-bordered cards are more likely to be tolerated by your local play group. Four of the six cards above are also on the Reserved List, so the prospect of finding cheaper copies of these cards is grim. These cards are perfect alternatives to improving your Commander deck’s power level without breaking the bank. No wonder there’s a reasonable demand profile for them!

In fact, some of the cards that just barely fall short of that $10 mark also fall into the same category: Yawgmoth's Will and Survival of the Fittest come to mind. Both Reserved List, both have expensive black-bordered counterparts, both are useful in Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Survival of the Fittest

The Prognosis Is Good

With the Reserved List here to stay, hopefully you are as convinced as I am that these are worthwhile cards to shop for, or at least to be aware of. At this moment, I own zero gold-bordered cards—historically I’ve avoided these for their lack of tournament legality. But I am starting to come around as I seek out cheaper ways to enjoy my favorite game. Even those not on the Reserved List aren’t all that vulnerable to reprint unless those reprints drive prices into the ground.

I think with some careful strategy, we should be able to avoid those pitfalls. Other than the cards mentioned above, here are a few more I like buying for the collection:

Force of Will: This card was reprinted not long ago, but black-bordered copies are still pretty expensive. A gold-bordered copy is the perfect discount alternative for a budget EDH deck.

Grim Monolith: Reserved List, popular in Commander, expensive black-bordered counterpart. All three boxes checked—I’m surprised this one isn’t more expensive already!

Metalworker: Not quite as popular as Grim Monolith, but Reserved List all the same. The black-bordered version isn’t going to get cheaper, so the gold-border printing’s trajectory should be upward.

Flooded Strand: There are three fetchlands in these sets, and this is the only blue one. Its ubiquity in multiple formats should give players plenty of opportunity to find use for it, even if gold-bordered and reprintable.

City of Brass: Here’s my penny-stock pick, as it only buylists for a buck currently. Make sure you get the Seattle 1998 version, which uses the original art. I would be fine playing this version in Old School—even Chronicles versions are getting costly, so this is the next option if you want to stick to the old art.

I want to mention two more things about these before wrapping up. First, you could always buy the decks in their complete form if you want access to a bunch of these cards at once. In their sealed form, they have collector demand also going for them. But you also have the option to crack for singles. Just make sure you research which decks you want based on the cards within them.

TCGplayer is nearly devoid of these sealed decks, unfortunately, but I’m sure you could find some elsewhere. eBay has some, and perhaps even some retailers are sitting on them. I bet they wouldn’t mind moving them either since these had been fairly undesirable for many years.

Second, don’t forget about the blank proxy cards, which have some decent value in and of themselves. Each deck came with 12 (another reason to consider buying the complete decks), and they can be sold for nonzero dollars:

Wrapping It Up

Once forgotten, the World Championship Decks may finally merit a closer look now. I used to ignore gold-bordered cards for their illegality in tournaments. But in a world where players are fed up with tournament play and the Reserved List, perhaps these will start to see more demand. It happened with Collectors’ Edition cards and I could certainly see these getting a bump next.

A small number of these cards are already worth more than ten bucks, but that’s still a far cry from their black-bordered counterparts. As cards like Grim Monolith and Yawgmoth's Will get more expensive, these gold-bordered versions should follow suit. Those that are Commander-playable are especially attractive since that’s a very likely avenue to use these cards. Cubes are another way gold-bordered cards can see play since those also do not rely on DCI sanctioning.

I’d highly recommend browsing your local shops, secret online stores, and other venues where you make your purchases. Perhaps you can find some underpriced copies, maybe even below buylist. Since these had been undesirable for many years, stores may be willing to cut you a deal if you take a bunch at once.

Lastly, don’t ignore sealed decks. Perhaps their value when broken into singles would exceed your purchase price—another avenue to make a little money. Or keep them sealed for a while. They are a piece of history, after all, and it’s highly unlikely Wizards ever makes these again. That makes for a juicy investment if you ask me!

…

Sigbits

I noticed Judge Promo Intuition pop up on Card Kingdom’s hotlist just this past week. Now their buylist is $175, and really there’s no ceiling for this Reserved List foil. Keep an eye on this one!

There are a few Expeditions on Card Kingdom’s hotlist now. Are these getting some attention again? Notables include Misty Rainforest ($175), Steam Vents ($85), and Watery Grave ($80). These had floundered for a while but we all know the hype around these “modern-day Reserved List” cards.

After dropping all the way down to $45, Card Kingdom just moved their buylist on Argivian Archaeologist back to $70. They had a bunch in stock at one point, and I wonder if someone is trying to scoop up copies aggressively. I used to have some of these, but decided to trade them into ABU Games to take advantage of the high trade credit numbers. Now I only have one copy, and $70 isn’t compelling enough for me to want to sell it. I wonder if others feel the same way?

Undervalued Cards in Standard (Part 4 – Core 2019)

Posted on September 14, 2018 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers!

This is the fourth and final part for this series leading up to the Guilds of Ravnica release. We have seen some of the Guilds spoilers so far, but we still have a lot of unknowns currently. While that may not be good for competitive players looking to prepare for a new format, it is great for speculators, as it means that if we can isolate the current undervalued cards leading into a new Standard format we can make a good bit of money.

You can find my review of Ixalan here, Rivals of Ixalan here, and Dominaria here. Hopefully you've enjoyed the series thus far and have found value in it. Today we will focus on the mythics of Core 2019, continuing to use our four factors for determining if a card is undervalued:

There is a superior alternative currently available.
There is currently a more powerful archetype that makes the card unplayable.
The card lacks necessary support (either color or archetypal).
The card has been misevaluated.

Core 2019

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants

There isn't another mono-white planeswalker in Standard at the moment, so no direct competition.
Unfortunately, there isn't a mono-white aggro deck strong enough in the format to compete with the R/b Aggro deck currently dominating. We can be pretty confident of this as even good ol' Craig Wescoe, perennial white weenie player, has given up on the archetype currently (and when he won't play it because it's too weak, you know it's not viable). White in the current Standard is relegated to helping players cast Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and providing efficient wrath effects like Fumigate.
As mentioned, the biggest problem with Ajani is that he doesn't have the necessary aggressive white weenie cards to make the archetype work. He is clearly designed for that type of archetype (providing recursion and creature pumps with his first two abilities).
The card is still sitting at around $7.5 despite seeing almost no play. If we get enough aggressive creatures from the Boros or Selesyna guild, I could easily see this card doubling in price. However, I wouldn't start buying in until said cards are spoiled.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Apex of Power

While there isn't anything exactly like this currently, the mana cost and "bang for the buck" is just clearly lacking on this card. It seems destined to remain a bulk mythic unless we get a card that happens to combo with it to win the game.
This is a 10-drop that doesn't automatically win the game upon resolution (which is already difficult to do in a world of Disallow and occasional Supreme Will). It's fair to say that UWx Control decks establish control of the game before this card could ever hope to resolve, and R/b aggro decks would kill you before you got to 10 mana to cast it.
As stated in the first point, this card would require another card to "combo" with it to ever have a real chance at seeing play in the format; it's just too slow and does too little for the cost.
This card has been properly evaluated given what we currently have available.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcades, the Strategist

This is a unique card that made a lot of waves in Commander, but hasn't done anything in Standard.
Bant is currently the color combination for the Bant Nexus decks that try to win with Teferi, who seems like a far more powerful win condition for just one more mana (and less color-specific mana).
Arcades's biggest problem is a lack of good defender creatures. This is definitely a card that could develop an archetype around it with support. There are currently 11 creatures in Standard with defender, none of which are really playable to begin with. For a viable Arcades deck, we would likely need a card like Assault Formation to act as an additional way to make your defender creatures threats, as well as a couple creatures with defender that are worth playing on their own like Wall of Omens.
This card requires a lot to succeed. It's worth keeping on the radar, but currently needs too much to go right to be worth buying now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bone Dragon

We currently have Rekindling Phoenix as a powerful recursive threat in the format, and it doesn't require a mana investment and seven creatures in the yard to recur itself (though it does get removed with two pieces of removal).
The current environment has black as taking more of a splash or minor role in decks, providing efficient removal, but not really threats.
Black as a whole has a lot of support cards (mainly in the way of removal spells like Cast Down and Vraska's Contempt), but no good finishers.
This card seems destined for bulk rare status as it's recursion is more like a one- to two-shot use. You're only likely to have a lot of cards in your graveyard in very long games, and you're unlikely to be able to recur this card back to back. It also hurts that one of the top removal spells in the format (the previously mentioned Vraska's Contempt) exiles at a mana less than Bone Dragon's initial cost.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromium, the Mutable

This is an excellent control-vs.-control trump card, and there isn't anything else quite like it at the moment. Some might argue that Nezahal, the Primal Tide is pretty close, however, flash is a huge part of the power level of this card (as control decks prefer to play spells on their opponents end step).
At this time, straight UW Control seems to be preferred over Esper variants (likely due to the mana base). If we get some powerful Dimir cards in Guilds of Ravnica I could see Esper becoming the color combination of choice.
Esper control decks do have plenty of solid support cards currently. The manabase isn't quite where you want to be with a control deck, though once we get Ravnica Allegiance and we get Godless Shrine and Hallowed Fountain, it will be almost perfect mana for such a deck.
As stated, this card is currently a good trump card in a control mirror, as it's extremely difficult to deal with. The archetype just doesn't have the mana to support it currently.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Untouched by Death

There isn't any other Zombie-themed planeswalkers to compare this to in Standard.
This planeswalker was clearly designed for a Zombie tribal deck. She would likely have been very good in the Zombie deck that won PT Amonkhet at the hands of Gerry Thompson, but no such deck exists in the current Standard.
There are a fair number of decent Zombies in Standard, but a lot will rotate out and we don't have any spoiled yet that look to coalesce into a Tier 1 strategy. I do feel like Liliana might be a bit of a plug for the Golgari tribe (which is known for Zombies), so if we see some aggressively costed Zombies spoiled she might be worth picking up.
Liliana seems like a more casual planeswalker at this time, but her second and third abilities could be quite powerful and provide a fair amount of card advantage in a grindy game, so I won't count her out entirely. Her first ability, though, almost comes off as nerfed at the last minute by the design team for its overall weakness.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omniscience

This is definitely a card that can form a very powerful janky FNM style deck (and obviously a potent Legacy one), but there isn't anything quite like it in Standard.
This is an extremely powerful card—if it resolves and you survive long enough to cast it. However, neither of those two options seems likely with the current Standard environment. This card didn't really find any homes the last time it was Standard-legal, and I don't expect it to now.
There isn't much to support this type of card, save cheating out an even bigger bomb for free, which again seems like something you build for a janky FNM deck and not a Tier 1 Standard deck.
This card existed before and it never found a home in any competitive Standard decks. I do think it's a great Commander pickup (if it can dodge any more reprints) as the original version was almost $30 before this reprint (which can be had for under $5).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Palladia-Mors, the Ruiner

There isn't anything else quite like this card in the current Standard environment (it has a whole lot of relevant keywords on it though).
There isn't any Naya-based deck in Standard (and this card's been around for a few months already) so I don't know if one will emerge.
It is important to note that we get both Boros and Selesnya with Guilds of Ravnica so there will likely be some support coming. The "hexproof until" clause is a bit odd (and something I don't think we've seen before). If we get a way to blink her at instant speed (thus regaining hexproof) I could see this card possibly finding a home somewhere, as it's definitely a very powerful six-drop.
Currently it's a bulk mythic, but as I said above if we get a way to reset the hexproof (by blinking her) I could see her being the top end of a Naya midrange deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Resplendent Angel

We already have Lyra Dawnbringer as a powerful Angel who doesn't require additional mana investment for to gain lifelink.
Most competitive players tend to shy away from cards that are mediocre at the start and require a significant additional mana investment to be decent (as a removal spell in response is basically a Time Walk). There is just too much efficient removal that turns the six mana +3/+3 and lifelink into a blow out to really make someone want to play this card.
Ironically, there is a fair amount of support for this card in the current Standard. The ideal combo is this and the previously mentioned Lyra, who when it deals damage will trigger the Angel at the end step, with no additional mana required.
This card was one of the most expensive mythics in the set at release and it's gradually tanked to one third that price. It is important to consider that if we get any good playable lifegain spells (that can ideally be cast at instant speed on turn four, the turn after you would play this Angel) it may see a price increase...but that's a pretty big if.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scapeshift

There currently isn't anything else like this in Standard.
There isn't any land like Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle to combo with this card to make an archetype.
There are no significant efficient ramp spells available to support this style of archetype.
This card seems like it was simply thrown in at mythic to help reduce the cost of the original for Modern players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tezzeret, Artifice Master

Currently we have an extremely powerful five-drop blue planeswalker (Teferi, Hero of Dominaria) that is better than Tezzeret in pretty much every way.
We have a very powerful UW Control deck in Standard that doesn't seem to want to play this card (and it could). To be honest I'm actually a bit surprised, as Tezzeret protects itself with the plus ability. Because he creates blockers, he can force the opponent to overcommit to the board, which makes wrath effects better. I've played him on MTGArena and really like him as a two-of in UW Control.
There is a fair amount of support for this card at the moment. Honestly he just seems to be overshadowed by Teferi. The fact that we will be rotating out of a heavy artifact-based Standard likely means his 0 ability will get worse rather than better (as the Ravnica plane isn't particularly known for having lots of artifacts).
I actually really like this card as a speculation opportunity. I'd buy these all day in the $4-$5 range, though its current price of $7 is a bit higher than I'd like. That being said, if UW Control decks pick him up as a support card for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, he could easily double up to $15.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vaevictis Asmadi, the Dire

I'd argue that Vraska's Contempt is simply a better card than this (despite the fact that this is a creature). They both likely serve the purpose of getting rid of planeswalkers, except Contempt does so instantly and for two less mana (and without requiring three different colored mana sources).
There isn't a Jund archetype in the format, though with recent spoilers from Guilds of Ravnica it does seem possible. That being said, even if a good Jund deck emerges I really don't see this card finding a home.
Currently this card lacks support to make it better, but it would require a very specific type of support card to really be playable.
This card has been properly evaluated as a bulk mythic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vivien Reid

Vivien's second ability is very similar to Vraska, Relic Seeker, except its ultimate is likely a bit worse (though not by much). Where Vivien shines is that she doesn't require black as well to be played (though with Assassin's Trophy spoiled, we are quite likely to see BGx decks be Tier 1, so that issue may be minor.
Vivien's biggest problem is that she can only sometimes protect herself (if your opponent has a flyer as their only creature), and while her plus ability is perfectly reasonable, it doesn't effect the board at all.
I think we will see a resurgence in green with Guilds of Ravnica, as we get both Golgari and Selesnya guilds. Along with the previously mentioned Assassin's Trophy, which is eternal-playable, green could definitely become Tier 1. I don't foresee Vivien Reid being a four-of in such a deck (perhaps a one- or two-of, possibly in the board).
This card is currently a bit weaker than Vraska, Relic Seeker, but could definitely find a home in upcoming Standard.

Essential MTG Finance Information Sources

Posted on September 14, 2018September 17, 2018 by Adam Yurchick

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If you're reading this article, or any others on Quiet Speculation, you're interested in the financial side of Magic in some way. An article will hopefully provide some wisdom or nugget of useful knowledge for the reader to take in and use, but it’s only one small perspective on an enormous market.

At this point there are over 20,000 unique Magic cards, the prices of which are determined by countless forces acting on their supply and demand, so making sense of it all while keeping up with the market’s constant movement is a herculean task. The key to success is determining what really matters to the market among the endless noise, and therein lies the opportunity for profit.

In many of my articles, I try to use my knowledge and experience to identify and explain trends, and to point to cards I see growing. I arrive at these conclusions after considering many different factors. Today I want to dig into my process of looking for information relevant to the Magic market, specifically the sources I turn to and how I use them.

Price Aggregators

The basic barometer of the Magic market are price aggregators that track historic price movements, with MTGGoldfish and MTG Stocks being two I use regularly. These sites can be seen like the stock ticker of Magic cards, the go-to place for current prices and where cards have been in the short-to-long-term history.

This information is technically all looking in the past, but much like the stock-ticker, it can be used to help inform predictions about the future. It’s useful to help identify trends, and points where trends inflect and change course. Information like the historical high and low price, and price points during different key times in its history, can be used to help forecast what the future might bring.

Price information is best used not in a vacuum but in the context of the market. Large, sudden movements usually have an explanation—whether obvious or one that requires a little sleuthing—and figuring out the reason is key in planning for future movements. Moving beyond the price charts is where things start to get really interesting.

News

Prices on the stock market change with the news, as the new information it provides changes the value of things, or at least its perceived value. The same applies to Magic cards, and there is all sorts of new that can come out to change the demand of cards.

A prime example is tournament decklists (which I’ve given their own section below), but there are many other types of Magic news that impact the market. An obvious example is banning and unbanning announcements, which can bring a card from almost no demand to incredible demand in an instant, and has historically led to massive price spikes in Modern. On the other side of the coin, a card being banned will cut its demand almost entirely.

Another type of news, and a very pertinent one right now, are card spoilers. There are new Magic cards printed regularly, and they all have an impact on the market. A simple example is reprints, and the announcement of a high-dollar card being reprinted will typically lower its price, at least temporarily. Sometimes the opposite is true, as could be seen when the checklands were announced in Dominaria, and the old versions, which were at bargain-basement prices, increased in price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Woodland Cemetery

Most spoiler news isn’t so obvious and takes a bit more analyzing, but it can be just as significant. A good example is when a card is printed that happens to combo with another card, like when Felidar Guardian was spoiled and Saheeli Rai saw a massive surge in demand and price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai

Oftentimes these interactions are found and identified in corners of the internet but not necessarily widely publicized and acted upon by the public immediately. So quick identification and action when this does happen could be very profitable—though keep in mind it is a rare occurrence.

Recently, the printing of Assassin's Trophy has gotten people hyped about BGx decks like Jund and Abzan in Modern. In the days following the spoiling, the price of all sorts of black-green staples like Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf, and even Leovold, Emissary of Trest due to the Legacy implications, have increased online. These could soon follow in paper.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leovold, Emissary of Trest

Another good example of news impacting the market is the regularly-occurring article that provides updates about the state of Magic Online. It includes information about changes to the frequency at which cards appear in Treasure Chests.

When specific cards see changes, it can dramatically change the value of these cards or even the chests themselves. Recently there was an emergency announcement that Nexus of Fate would have a dramatically higher drop rate, which brought the price of Treasure Chests up by around 10% instantly.

Tournament Results/Decklists

The key factor behind many price movements is tournament results. If a deck or card breaks out in a tournament, it’s likely to see a spike in demand. It’s this demand from the competitive metagame that determines the prices of many cards, so these results are a key place to look for anyone dealing in those cards.

There’s a reason that Quiet Speculation sends a reporter to the floor of Standard Pro Tours to glean information about what is going on—the earlier one can get this information, the more valuable it is. I remember when I first saw the Colorless Eldrazi deck the night it won a Modern Classic, and by the next day prices for its staples like Gemstone Caverns had exploded.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gemstone Caverns

Looking forward, the first SCG Open after Standard rotation will be heavily scrutinized for information about the new metagame, so cards that break out there could spike. Similarly, I’ll be looking closely at decklists from Magic Online, which show what new cards are succeeding in the early days after rotation, and in many ways is like peeking into the future.

Social Media

One of the major vehicles of news is social media, which is a sort of secondary source, but one just as important. It’s the place where news is digested, distilled, and disseminated. It decides what news matters, meaning what actually is “news” at all, and can be a great place for a quick look at the hot topics of the moment. On the day Assassin's Trophy was spoiled, for example, Twitter was ablaze with discussion about the card, and the enormous hype about the card from all corners could have informed the decisions to go deep on BGx staples online that day.

Soon after Status // Statue was spoiled, I learned about its combo with Goblin Chainwhirler on Twitter. That combo might not be quite as monumental as the spoiling of Vampire Hexmage turning Dark Depths from bulk rare to chase rare, but it goes to show you how fast the collective consciousness figures out what is going on in the Magic world—social media is the place to tap into it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Depths

For Magic, Twitter is really one of the best places to learn about news in real-time. Reddit is also useful, and will even regularly have the biggest topics from Twitter trending.

Social media is a powerful influence and sort of news in its own way, and someone influential endorsing a card or deck can impact the market. A great example of this is the “Saffron Olive effect,” named for the popular streamer and personality who regularly causes price spikes, at least online, of all sorts of cards he uses in his brews.

Another example are articles. At this point, they almost might seem like an extension of social media, since that's where the most important ones are shared, but the opinion of pros and influential people can be a factor in influencing the price of card. Strategy articles can also be used to help your own evaluation of a card’s future prospects and potential value.

Further Research

The sources I’ve written about today are truly just the tip of the iceberg. There's an almost endless amount of information out there that can help make your Magic finance decisions.

Some examples of things I might look at include buylist prices, as well as the spread, which tells its own story. There’s also TCGplayer market price, and if you have a TCGplayer storefront you can even look and see the price of the last copy of the card sold. There’s also the matter of stock on TCGplayer, as well as price, stock, and past sold on eBay. Buy and sell prices for cards at dealer booths is also a wealth of information.

What sources of information are essential for you?

-Adam

Spell-Based Brewing with Guilds of Ravnica

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Jordan Boisvert

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Guilds of Ravnica spoilers are underway, and the set is meeting my high expectations. It's even exceeding them thanks to a certain Golgari instant. Join me today as we discuss that card and explore some of the possibilities Guilds promises for spell-based fair decks the format over.

The Trophy's Legacy

Plenty has been written about Assasin's Trophy already: it will break Jund; it will fix Sultai; it will hose Tron. Most of these opinions explicitly concern BGx decks, which will indeed improve with Trophy in the mix. Their Tron matchup won't suddenly become favorable, though, nor will Sultai's clunkiness issues vanish into thin air. Rather, I expect the raw-power Jund shell and the more streamlined, has-it-all-anyway BG Rock deck to benefit the most from Trophy, at least at first.

But the real winner here isn't a deck—it's a format. Modern has long ached for the economic catch-all Trophy represents. Just as Fatal Push is far from ubiquitous in Modern, but still had a radical effect on the format's landscape, Assasin's Trophy stands to flip the format on its head once again despite being relatively picky about which strategies it can accommodate it. Here are some of the big changes I'm anticipating.

Fewer "Win Buttons"

Many Modern decks take advantage of the format's speed by including hard-to-interact-with permanents in the sideboard. Streamlined decks simply aren't equipped to answer this wealth of possible hosers. These spells attack opponents from a completely novel angle and punish them for rightly skimping on removal for strange card types after siding. Examples include Ensnaring Bridge in Burn, Worship in Spirits, Batterskull in midrange shells, and most recently, Lyra Dawnbringer in control.

Trophy has utility even in aggressive matchups; against Burn, for instance, it's fine just taking out a white source or a creature. With passable targets in any point during a match and across the metagame, Trophy may force these win button cards out of the format after a few months. Enough decks have access to BG, and therefore are guaranteed to run Trophy, that relying on hoser permanents for a respectable chunk of matchups becomes unreliable.

Winners: decks that struggle to deal with hard-to-remove permanents, i.e. Colorless Eldrazi Stompy

Losers: decks that heavily rely on such permanents, i.e. Bogles

Better Nacatls

Wild Nacatl epitomizes my favorite thing about Magic: nothing but stats for a tiny investment. It's combat incarnate. And combat incarnate improves with Assasin's Trophy running around.

Trophy won't immediately replace Faithless Looting, Thoughtseize, or Serum Visions in anyone's decklist. It'll come in for removal. Lightning Bolt, Fatal Push, and Path to Exile will all be trimmed from different decks in some number to make room for the heavier-duty, no-questions-asked kill spell, which is great news for anyone looking to attack with cheap threats. After all, Trophy's real draw isn't in its mana cost, but in its versatility; Modern's existing removal spells will out-rate the card any day of the week. And ramping the tempo-conscious aggro deck in the early turns is a great way to eat a plate full of haymaker.

Trophy is also softer to countermagic, especially the sort liable to see play in aggressive decks. It's much easier to Mana Leak or Spell Pierce this card than it is Fatal Push, and that's without even mentioning Spell Snare!

Winners: decks with multiple efficient threats, i.e. Zoo and Delver

Losers: decks built around their resistance to Push or that can't so abuse the extra mana, i.e. Hollow One

More Surprises

Flexible answer spells do little if not increase the diversity of Modern. Whenever we get one, more decks seem to become playable overnight. With Trophy legal, players in Golgari colors have access to a mainboard card that plays roles formerly assigned to niche sideboard tools, freeing up more space for their unique engines and counter-play possibilities. Hollow One, Mardu Pyromancer, and Grixis Shadow did not exist before Fatal Push; I imagine Assasin's Trophy will pull a Fatal Push on this front and usher in a new era of creative deckbuilding.

Winners: mad scientists

Losers: Old Fogeys

Revisiting German Threshold

Assassin's Trophy is a boon to any interactive fair deck, no matter how high or low its curve. But it does seem to fit better into midrange decks, which can afford its steep casting cost. Nonetheless, I was eager to try the card in a Delver shell.

I liked the idea of holding up Mana Leak or Snapcaster Mage and firing off Trophy instead if the situation called for it, and Delver decks in general have long struggled with obnoxious permanents. While Counter-Cat employs Path to Exile to remove most of them, planeswalkers and enchantments can still shut the archetype down, making Trophy an attractive role-player in this kind of deck.

I landed on German Threshold, a BURG Delver deck named for its Legacy-loving originators and one I've tinkered with in Modern before.

German Thresh, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Hooting Mandrills

1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

2 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Thought Scour

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Fatal Push

4 Assasin's Trophy

3 Stubborn Denial

1 Spell Snare

2 Mana Leak

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

2 Faithless Looting

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs

4 Scalding Tarn

2 Polluted Delta

1 Misty Rainforest

1 Blood Crypt

1 Watery Grave

1 Breeding Pool

1 Stomping Ground

1 Steam Vents

1 Island

1 Swamp

1 Forest

Sideboard

2 Isochron Scepter

2 Damping Sphere

2 Pyroclasm

2 Surgical Extraction

2 Huntmaster of the Fells

1 Hazoret the Fervent

1 Shapers' Sanctuary

1 Ceremonious Rejection

1 Ancient Grudge

1 Stubborn Denial

The Mainboard

Delver and Goyf can't man the ships themselves. In this build, I settled on delve threats despite their reliance on the graveyard, something they share with Tarmogoyf, for a couple of reasons. First, there weren't that many better options. Stretching into white for Nacatl was far more than I wanted to subject the manabase to, and it's slim pickings for additional Goyfs in Modern. Second, we can mostly sidestep graveyard hate with our sideboard, and we'll almost only ever see it in games 2 and 3. Worst comes to worst, Trophy destroys Rest in Peace.

Such beefy threats let us run Stubborn Denial and Thought Scour, cards that work well with Snapcaster Mage and reward us for holding up Trophy. German Threshold's ensuing reactive bent therefore becomes quite reliable, but since part of that package is Thought Scour, it's also plenty good at sticking threats early.

This build dips into red for sideboard cards, sure, but Lightning Bolt is at its center. If small creatures get better with Trophy around, I want to be ready. Joining Bolt is Fatal Push, ensuring opponents vying for dominance with creature synergy won't get much going. Faithless Looting rounds out the color, offering even more ways to fuel delve and a method to pitch clunky two-drops, permission, or kill spells when necessary.

The manabase is similar to Counter-Cat's: we want to set up a perfect pair of shocks (Crypt-Pool or Grave-Ground, both of which cast Trophy) and supplement them with a third shock (usually Steam Vents) or basic (usually Island). Our fetchlands maximize the odds of that happening. We play three basics for insurance against Field of Ruin, Ghost Quarter, Path to Exile, the odd Blood Moon, and of course, Assassin's Trophy. There are also three red sources to protect our sideboard plans from land disruption.

The Sideboard

The sideboard is built to do three things: address problematic matchups, take advantage of ramp from opposing Path to Exiles and Assassin's Trophies, and sidestep graveyard hate with alternate win conditions.

Flashiest among these win conditions is Isochron Scepter, a card I ran zealously in Counter-Cat sideboards when we still played Lightning Helix. Imprinting the best card in a given matchup on Scepter can give opponents a very hard time, and the artifact ideally comes down on four lands—just enough to resolve and activate once before opponents destroy it. Or don't, and leave us to stockpile cards in hand as we throw Bolts.

Assassin's Trophy can be imprinted on Isochron Scepter. This fact dawned on me about 15 minutes after I saw the spoiler, and was my primary motivator to build German Thresh. Between Trophy and Bolt, we have eight guaranteed high-impact imprints. Preliminary testing has shown that it's difficult to lose against pretty much anything with an active Trophy-Scepter. In lieu of actual threats to remove, Scepter offers a repeatable Ghost Quarter effect, which pressures opponents to act even if they don't want to run their threats headfirst into the slaughter.

Surgical Extraction, too, fits onto Scepter, but gains even more value with Trophy in the picture. We can now Trophy a Tron land, cantrip into Surgical, and immediately disrupt the combo for good. The same goes for Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle and Primeval Titan.

The Bird's the Word

The other spoiled card to pique my interest was Arclight Phoenix. Here was a Delver I could have for just playing Magic, or at least my kind of Magic: the interactive kind! Much as I love free 4/4s, something that's always peeved me about Hollow One is how much time it spends setting up. Phoenix promised a Hollow One or Vengevine with less heavy lifting involved.

I started with a UR shell before moving into black and soon dropping blue altogether. The impetus for this switch was Collective Brutality, a card I fast realized I'd need 4 of. Brutality does it all in this deck: it spends the mana made by Manamorphose; it discards stranded Phoenixes to the graveyard; it controls the game state in diverse ways at an unbeatable mana rate. On top of it all, Brutality counts as an instant/sorcery for Phoenix.

Much to my chagrin, continued testing led me from BR into Mardu, and eventually to Mardu Pyromancer. Here, Phoenix takes the slots intermittently occupied by Liliana of the Veil, Goblin Rabblemaster, and Blood Moon, giving the deck a more dedicated proactive slant.

Mardu Pyromancer, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Young Pyromancer

4 Bedlam Reveler

4 Arclight Phoenix

Instants

4 Manamorphose

4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting

4 Rift Bolt

4 Collective Brutality

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Thoughtseize

4 Lingering Souls

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Bloodstained Mire

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Blood Crypt

1 Sacred Foundry

2 Mountain

1 Swamp

Finding a Home

The strongest builds I could come up with didn't block enough for my tastes without Hollow One or Death's Shadow in the picture, and accommodating those creatures ended up over-diluting the deck's elements. I did try one, the other, and both; my results proved unpromisingly familiar.

Mardu Pyromancer is the best shell I have found yet, in no small part thanks to Lingering Souls. One-drop into Manamorphose into Lingering Souls flashback is great at reviving Phoenix early, but the card's real charm is how forgiving it can make our games. When the right pieces don't come together on time, Souls buys multiple turns blocking or forcing opponents to deal with the bodies.

Rift Bolt is here to help with Phoenix. Suspending it "tucks" the spell for later, guaranteeing us an instant/sorcery count before we even draw for turn. That way, we only need to cast two spells to trigger the bird. It also combines with Lightning Bolt and Collective Brutality to provide a steep wall for small creature decks to climb. All that toughness-based removal makes things hellish for anyone spreading synergy across bodies.

Effects on the Deck

It's fully possible I've just built a worse Mardu Pyromancer. And either way, I'm probably over-indulging Phoenix with the full 4 and stuff like Rift Bolt. But the card has shown promise in this and other shells, offering a taste of Hollow One and Bridgevine's explosiveness in strategies otherwise without it. Consider these sequences:

Turn 1: Inquisition/Thoughtseize/Bolt/Push/Looting
Turn 2: Manamorphose, Looting discarding Phoenix, other one-drop, attack for 3

Turn 1: suspend Rift Bolt
Turn 2: Manamorphose, Brutality discarding Phoenix, attack for 3

What I like about Phoenix is that the explosiveness comes at little in-game cost. There are no turns spent setting
up, as with Goblin Lore or Grisly Salvage, or unreliable -1s, as with Burning Inquiry. The available cantrips and interaction just happen to enable Phoenix incidentally.

The thing my Phoenix brews really needs is the Legacy cardpool. The Stitcher's Supplier/Cabal Therapy package from Mardu Pyromancer in that format would be incredible here, especially with Punishing Fire/Grove of the Burnwillows to improve Phoenix further. Here's hoping we get a cheap, red jump-start card in the coming weeks of spoilers to do a Therapy impression, or just some decent surveil cards (and no, not the one that doesn't give us a 2/1).

It's a Lightning Bolt World...

...and I wouldn't have it any other way. Join me next week for a more detailed exposé of the Guilds spoilers. Until then, happy tinkering!

LGS: The Case for Longevity

Posted on September 13, 2018 by Christopher Martin

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Spoilers for Guilds of Ravnica started on September 3, and it is looking like a fun set with some new mechanics. I’m excited to see all the applications to EDH from the set, and am excited to start evaluating new card interactions and potential specs as well!

This week, I want to discuss some information released during PAX about the newest premium product, Guilds of Ravnica Mythic Edition. In case you missed it, you can find the formal announcement about Guilds of Ravnica Mythic Edition on Wizards’s website along with some other details about the buy-a-box and event promos we can expect. I have not been able to find any information on how limited the print run will be, but comments made at LA PAX on September 2and subsequent tweets indicate that this set will not be redistributed; once it’s gone, it’s gone.

At face value, the Guilds of Ravnica Mythic Edition will be a highly desirable collectible and is likely to sell out quickly. I know I will be trying to get at least one.

The controversial news about the Mythic Edition announcement is that Hasbro plans to distribute it directly through their website instead of the traditional brick-and-mortar LGS model. As a result, international players will have a very difficult time getting this product at a reasonable price because Hasbro only ships to certain parts of North America and the LGS model is cut out from the high-margin of profit this product should fetch.

The former issue is a really poor experience caused by Hasbro, in my opinion. The player base I imagine to be showing the most growth in recent years is overseas, notably in Eastern and Western parts of Europe. To entirely alienate the market where there is likely the most opportunity feels like a huge miss by Hasbro and something I am taking into consideration when contemplating their stock price and future growth potential. It says to me that the Hasbro leadership, at least those in charge of Wizards and Magic, are not employing a well-thought plan for growing the Magic brand internationally. It leaves me skeptical about their future plans and I hope they learn from this mistake quickly.

The latter issue reignited a debate that lands close to my heart: the importance of the local game store to the Magic community. The idea of the LGS model going to the wayside in the face of Amazon and MTGO is not a new concern but is certainly one I have a huge passion for. I have a desire to open my own LGS someday, and I also feel passionately about the brick and mortar distribution model because of my connection to it through my career in insurance. It is my opinion that brick and mortar distribution models are circumstantially resistant to the shift in online market trends – and that both Magic and the insurance industry need them to survive.

Distribution Models Reimagined

While Hearthstone has been taking over computers, the majority of the Magic community continues to defy the Information Age by playing Magic in person more than any online competition. The game has grown into a meaningful revenue stream for Hasbro (as demonstrated by a few of Hasbro's latest earnings reports), and while it is tough to know whether the growth in revenue is from new players entering the market or the existing player base spending more, one fact is very clear: people are buying Magic cards.

The social aspect of the LGS community is strong and functions as the lifeblood for promoting the game. I have to think Hasbro knows Magic is still best enjoyed when sitting across from someone, not from behind a computer screen. I like to think the distribution decision with Guilds of Ravnica Mythic Edition was not intended to be a slight against the LGS, but rather an effort to protect them from inventory liability should the product struggle to sell (compare to From the Vault products, for example).

That said, Wizards has been actively trying to get into the online arena with MTGO and Magic Arena. While the player base online is different than paper for the most part, it is impossible to rule out the cannibalization of the target audience or the impact that cannibalization will have on brick and mortar storefronts. There are certainly opportunities for Wizards to cross-pollenate the paper and online versions of the game, but the time and investment required to hold a collection in both is burdensome for the average player. My hypothesis here is that Magic will never be as successful online, though that is a topic for another time. As it relates to the LGS, I think Magic Online has potential to hurt LGS attendance into the future (and probably already has); but, I don’t see the threat of Magic Online being one that will ever make local storefronts irrelevant, unless of course something drastically changes with the way Hasbro wants to position Magic.

Comparing it to the insurance industry, the brick and mortar model employed by companies like Allstate and State Farm have been questioned for more than a decade due to purchasing trends moving online. The fear for insurance agents is that insurance companies have been investing heavily to compete in the online marketplace and are losing touch with the importance of human interaction.

Fortunately, insurance is complicated, much like trying to learn Magic might be for a new player, so having an expert advisor to help provide guidance during the purchasing experience is critical in guaranteeing the consumer ends up with the correct product(s). Despite insurance companies pouring huge amounts of time and money into building online sales engines, only a handful have seen tangible success without a brick and mortar distribution model (see: GEICO and Esurance). The failures, on the other hand, have been well-documented and wide-spread, including a failure by one of the largest companies in the world, Google.

The reality is people like the personal touch and reassurance of an expert when purchasing a product that will protect their most important assets (homes, cars, boats, their business). The need for affirmation and social interaction is becoming less common in general, but insurance and Magic are two environments where brick and mortar doesn’t just supplement the sales of their respective products; it defines them. That bodes well for the long term outlook of the LGS distribution model.

Just let them play!

Not only do LGSs promote a social interaction and a fun environment for new players to learn; they are the source of the biggest events Magic has to offer. The concept of Friday Night Magic has been around for as long as I can remember (I started playing in the late-90s), and while the majority of Magic is played at kitchen tables, the competitive urge and desire to meet new players exists in many of us. The best part about sanctioned Magic events at LGSs is that they cater to casual and competitive players alike, and provide a medium where players of all types can connect to play the game they love.

It helps that Wizards works closely with sanctioned stores to host events like FNM in a way that keeps them appealing for existing players while also making them relevant and welcoming for new or inexperienced players. The prize walls and event promos are examples of ways Wizards has helped promote attendance at FNM and other sanctioned events, and not coincidentally, these events often become the most valuable source of revenue for the LGS. The events provide an immeasurable boost in value to the Magic community by connecting players to each other and to the product, often leading to more sales for the LGS during events than any other singular time.

Without the LGS as an intermediary, these events would be significantly more difficult to coordinate for Wizards and a detriment to Hasbro’s bottom line. Conversely, without Wizards' promotional efforts, the LGS would suffer. This creates a symbiotic relationship for the two parties.

The Human Touch

In addition to the societal aspects and revenue implications of the LGS for Hasbro and Magic, the LGS makes an intangible contribution to the game: they provide a reach into communities across the world that Hasbro could never achieve on its own.

With sanctioned events come the need for sanctioned staff at the LGS, most notably store owners and judges. These sanctioned members add a human element to the brand that is unrivaled across card games, board games, and the like. It is truly the differentiator that transcends Magic from a retail product into a phenomenon.

Much like an insurance agent does for an insurance company, store owners and sanctioned judges act as advocates for the Magic brand and help form a positive image for the game. The human element is something a conglomerate like Hasbro could spend years of time and ample dollars trying to replicate, and never do it to perfection. Why? Because the owners of the LGS are more passionate about the game than anyone; it isn't just a job to them, it is their livelihood.

Just think about your LGS. They probably employ a staff of people who live and work in the same community as the players they serve. And, most of the time, just as an insurance agent is a consumer of insurance as a product, the store owners, staff, and judges are Magic players, too! This factor is what I believe defines Magic and makes it unique within the landscape of products across the world - try to think of another example where the owner and staff of a distribution point are also frequent consumers of the product they sell? I couldn't think of any.

The ability for Hasbro to extend its brand into local storefronts and leverage the personal touch and passion of the remarkable individuals that run them resonates in the Magic community. The LGS is a differentiator for Magic; it is where memories and friendships are made, and where a player’s bond with Magic: the Gathering is formed. I cannot imagine any online Magic product being able to replace those things, and thus I cannot imagine a world where the LGS does not exist.

Wrapping it up

Hasbro’s decision to distribute Guilds of Ravnica Mythic Edition directly through its website might hurt the LGS in the short term, especially if the product is widely successful (which I suspect it will be). But, the reality is local game stores are indispensable to Wizards and Hasbro because they transcend Magic into something unlike any other card game.

I was a bit upset with Hasbro’s decision, but in retrospect, I do not think they would do anything to intentionally harm the LGS. Furthermore, if the insurance industry is any indication, there are online-resistant markets still out there which highlight the human need for social interaction. We might be evolving to become less engaged and attentive than our ancestors, but certain things like playing Magic with our friends can never be replaced by the click of a mouse or touch of an iPhone.

Don't forget to support your local game stores whenever possible! For further discussion, you can always reach me on Twitter or feel free to comment here!

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #10

Posted on September 13, 2018September 13, 2018 by Edward Eng

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I thought Grand Prix Detroit might’ve put a twist on my list. But wow, Guilds of Ravnica spoilers will definitely change things. This is an exciting time as we’ll start to see shifts in cards seeing play, which is what makes this game so great.

If you haven’t seen it yet, here it is.

Whuuuuuuuuut? This card will single-handedly change the landscape of Modern and Legacy. And it will most certainly make BGx a pillar in Standard until it rotates out of the format.

So why am I mentioning this card? As per usual, here's the focus of our article series:

Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Hold ‘Em

Sylvan Scrying - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Scrying

Target Buy Price
$1

Keep in mind that Grand Prix Detroit was a Team Modern Constructed format, so the decks seen at the tournament could be a tad skewed. But generally, most of the 75's are pretty close to what we’d see in a non-team Modern Constructed tournament.

I was a little hesitant to include Sylvan Scrying in this list after seeing Assassin's Trophy because I’m not sure where Tron decks like Antonio Perez’s winning list will stand as GBx decks gain in popularity. But this is a pretty cheap promo so you can’t really go wrong. And it also sees play in Legacy’s Turbo Depths.

Thanks to Dominique Rahm for the comment on the last article in regards to adding target buy and sell prices to the public spreadsheet.

Modern: Mono-Green Tron by Antonio Perez

Creatures

3 Wurmcoil Engine

4 Walking Ballista

2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Non-Creature Spells

2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

4 Karn Liberated

4 Sylvan Scrying

4 Ancient Stirrings

2 Relic of Progenitus

4 Expedition Map

4 Chromatic Sphere

4 Oblivion Stone

4 Chromatic Star

Lands

4 Forest

4 Urza's Tower

4 Urza's Mine

4 Urza's Power Plant

2 Ghost Quarter

1 Sanctum of Ugin

Sideboard

3 Thought-Knot Seer

2 Thragtusk

1 Grafdigger's Cage

2 Spatial Contortion

3 Nature's Claim

1 Oblivion Sower

1 Emrakul, the Promised End

1 Spellskite

1 Crucible of Worlds

Eldrazi Temple - Modern Masters 2015 (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eldrazi Temple

Target Buy Prices
Non-Foil: $5
Foils: $10

Here’s another victim of Assassin's Trophy. However, this land sees play in multiple decks across eternal formats: Eldrazi Tron and BW Eldrazi in Modern, plus Eldrazi and 8-Post Eldrazi in Legacy. And although Assassin's Trophy might seem like the end of Tron and Eldrazi decks, they’ll just find a way to deal with the card.

Nature’s Claim - Iconic Masters (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nature's Claim

Target Buy Price
Foil: Under $1

Here’s another card from Antonio Perez’s winning list which also showed up in Matthew Nass’s Hardened Scales Affinity and Bradley Tinney’s Infect decks. And don’t forget that this is also played in Ironworks Combo.

Modern: Hardened Scales Affinity by Matthew Nass

Creatures

4 Walking Ballista

4 Hangarback Walker

4 Arcbound Worker

4 Arcbound Ravager

4 Steel Overseer

Non-Creature Spells

4 Ancient Stirrings

2 Animation Module

2 Throne of Geth

4 Darksteel Citadel

3 Welding Jar

4 Mox Opal

1 Evolutionary Leap

4 Hardened Scales

Lands

4 Inkmoth Nexus

2 Blinkmoth Nexus

9 Forest

1 Pendelhaven

Sideboard

1 Evolutionary Leap

4 Damping Sphere

2 Dismember

1 Karn, Scion of Urza

4 Nature's Claim

1 Relic of Progenitus

2 Tormod's Crypt

Modern: Infect by Bradley Tinney

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch

4 Glistener Elf

4 Blighted Agent

2 Ichorclaw Myr

Non-Creature Spells

1 Distortion Strike

1 Spell Pierce

1 Dismember

3 Become Immense

3 Groundswell

4 Vines of Vastwood

4 Blossoming Defense

4 Might of Old Krosa

4 Mutagenic Growth

2 Rancor

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills

1 Verdant Catacombs

2 Windswept Heath

2 Misty Rainforest

2 Forest

2 Breeding Pool

2 Pendelhaven

4 Inkmoth Nexus

Sideboard

1 Spell Pierce

1 Dismember 2

2 Nature's Claim

1 Gut Shot

1 Shapers' Sanctuary

1 Dispel

1 Pithing Needle

1 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Spellskite

2 Torpor Orb

1 Wild Defiance

Mutagenic Growth - Modern Masters 2015 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mutagenic Growth

Target Buy Price
Foil: Under $4

Here’s yet another card that showed up at Grand Prix Detroit via Bradley Tinney’s Infect deck. And this won’t show up in Standard again as Phyrexian mana is generally considered a mistake. But it will continue to be a Modern Infect staple, as well as a powerhouse in Pauper.

Mishra’s Bauble - Iconic Masters (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mishra's Bauble

Target Buy Prices
Non-Foil: $3
Foil: $7

Here’s another "free" spell card that wasn’t a mistake. We saw this spike when Death's Shadow showed up at the top tables in Modern. There was only the Coldsnap printing at the time; but since then, the card has tanked and leveled off after the Iconic Masters reprinting.

A year has almost past and now is a good time to pick up this card. This still sees play as a four-of in Lantern Control.

Smash to Smithereens - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Smash to Smithereens

Target Buy Price
Under $1

Speaking of artifacts, here’s another cheap promo that sees a lot of play in Modern and is also another Pauper all-star. It doesn’t deal with Mishra's Bauble, but it sure destroys a lot of key artifacts in Lantern Control.

If Assassin's Trophy becomes ubiquitous in Modern, Goblins might have its time in the spotlight, which could also include Legion Warboss or Goblin Rabblemaster. Take a look at Jorge Paul Gochingco’s list for reference. This is also one of the more affordable options for Modern.

Modern: Goblins by Paul Gochingco

Creatures

4 Foundry Street Denizen

4 Goblin Bushwhacker

2 Goblin Chieftain

4 Goblin Guide

3 Goblin Piledriver

4 Legion Loyalist

4 Mogg Fanatic

4 Mogg War Marshal

4 Reckless Bushwhacker

Non-Creature Spells

4 Goblin Grenade

4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Arid Mesa

4 Bloodstained Mire

12 Mountain

2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

4 Alpine Moon

1 Goblin Piledriver

3 Kari Zev's Expertise

1 Shattering Spree

4 Smash to Smithereens

2 Tormod's Crypt

Skirk Prospector - Dominaria (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skirk Prospector

Target Buy Price
Foil: $1

Moving deeper into Goblins, Skirk Prospector hasn’t really had its time to shine in Modern yet since its introduction to the format via Dominaria. But keep in mind that it’s a mana-accelerant on a body that has a converted mana cost of one, so it could definitely become a crucial piece in a deck looking to do broken things fast.

This could also become part of the one-drop package in Standard Goblins come post-October, along with Goblin Cratermaker and Legion Warboss.

Standard Goblins Crew in October 2018

Worship - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations

There was an error retrieving a chart for Worship

Target Buy Price
Under $40

Finally, let’s talk about a new-age Reserved List card. Many people don’t like the border, but there are definitely some people that like the unique factor. The Amonkhet Invocation version will never be printed again, capping the supply on these.

This card sees quite a bit of play in Modern, with a lot of the demand coming from the recent Spirits deck and GWx Vizier. While we didn’t see Worship in Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa’s runner-up Bant Spirits list at Grand Prix Detroit, it still sees play in many other builds.

Modern: Bant Spirits by Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa

Creatures

4 Drogskol Captain

2 Geist of Saint Traft

4 Mausoleum Wanderer

4 Noble Hierarch

3 Phantasmal Image

2 Selfless Spirit

4 Spell Queller

4 Supreme Phantom

Non-Creature Spells

3 Aether Vial

4 Collected Company

4 Path to Exile

Lands

2 Botanical Sanctum

1 Breeding Pool

2 Cavern of Souls

2 Flooded Strand

1 Forest

1 Hallowed Fountain

3 Horizon Canopy

1 Island

3 Misty Rainforest

1 Moorland Haunt

1 Plains

1 Seachrome Coast

1 Temple Garden

2 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Disdainful Stroke

2 Dromoka's Command

1 Gaddock Teeg

1 Geist of Saint Traft

3 Rest in Peace

3 Stony Silence

2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

1 Unified Will

And here’s Yuya Hosokawa’s ninth place GWx Vizier deck at Grand Prix Prague.

Modern: GWx Vizier by Yuya Hosokawa

Creatures

1 Scavenging Ooze

1 Eternal Witness

1 Fairgrounds Warden

1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty

1 Walking Ballista

2 Duskwatch Recruiter

3 Birds of Paradise

4 Vizier of Remedies

4 Tireless Tracker

4 Noble Hierarch

4 Knight of the Reliquary

4 Devoted Druid

Non-Creature Spells

4 Chord of Calling

4 Collected Company

Lands

1 Wooded Foothills

1 Plains

1 Tectonic Edge

2 Temple Garden

2 Verdant Catacombs

2 Ghost Quarter

3 Field of Ruin

4 Windswept Heath

6 Forest

Sideboard

3 Worship

1 Reclamation Sage

1 Qasali Pridemage

1 Phyrexian Revoker

2 Path to Exile

1 Kataki, War's Wage

2 Eidolon of Rhetoric

2 Burrenton Forge-Tender

1 Bojuka Bog

1 Scavenging Ooze

Folds

Ixalan Checklands (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonskull Summit

These have been reprinted into oblivion just like shocklands. And they’ll be in Standard together which means there will be real demand for them since they’ll be the core of almost all manabases. However, with the exception of Glacial Fortress, they don’t really see play in eternal formats so I would dump any extras you’re not using.

Dominaria Checklands (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sulfur Falls

This is only the second printing; but as you can see, Wizards is not afraid to reprint lands like these. And just like the Ixalan checklands, only one really sees eternal play: Sulfur Falls. Dump these as demand increases post-October.

Faithless Looting - Eternal Masters (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Faithless Looting

Target Sell Price
$4-5+

Dubbed as Modern’s Brainstorm, this card has really seen an uptick in play over the last few months owing to decks like Bridgevine, as well as Sam Pardee’s Hollow One, and Jose David Marzuca Lozano’s Mardu list from Grand Prix Detroit.

Modern: Hollow One by Sam Pardee

Creatures

4 Hollow One

4 Flameblade Adept

1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

3 Gurmag Angler

4 Flamewake Phoenix

4 Bloodghast

4 Street Wraith

Non-Creature Spells

2 Collective Brutality

4 Faithless Looting

4 Burning Inquiry

4 Goblin Lore

4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

3 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Arid Mesa

2 Blood Crypt

1 Stomping Ground

3 Mountain

2 Wooded Foothills

4 Bloodstained Mire

1 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge

2 Engineered Explosives

2 Fatal Push

2 Grim Lavamancer

4 Leyline of the Void

3 Thoughtseize

Modern: Mardu by Jose David Marzuca Lozano

Creatures

4 Young Pyromancer

4 Bedlam Reveler

Non-Creature Spells

2 Liliana of the Veil

3 Thoughtseize

2 Collective Brutality

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

4 Lingering Souls

4 Faithless Looting

1 Dreadbore

4 Lightning Bolt

1 Terminate

2 Fatal Push

2 Kolaghan's Command

1 Anguished Unmaking

2 Blood Moon

Lands

2 Swamp

1 Plains

1 Mountain

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

4 Bloodstained Mire

4 Marsh Flats

2 Blood Crypt

2 Sacred Foundry

Sideboard

1 Nahiri, the Harbinger

1 Anger of the Gods

2 Kambal, Consul of Allocation

2 Wear // Tear

1 Liliana, the Last Hope

2 Fulminator Mage

2 Lightning Helix

1 Ensnaring Bridge

2 Nihil Spellbomb

1 Surgical Extraction

This wasn’t printed in Iconic Masters, so it could get reprinted in the next Masters set. And although it also sees play in Pauper, I would sell or trade any of these you have and pick them back up again later. Note that Star City Games right now is buying these for $4 cash.

Tarmogoyf - Modern Masters 2017 (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

Target Sell Price
$70-75

Finally, circling all the way back around to the Assassin's Trophy effect, it’s almost inevitable that we bump into the mighty Tarmogoyf again. If you don’t remember, take a look back at my second article. Sell into the hype as people are starting to lean back toward BGx decks.

The peak price was about $76 at the beginning of April 2018, so $70 might be a bit ambitious from the current market price of $57. But Assassin's Trophy does a pretty good job of clearing a path for good ‘ol Tarmogoyf.

Dark Confidant - Modern Masters 2015 (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Confidant

Target Sell Price
$65

And don’t forget about one of Tarmogoyf’s best friends, Dark Confidant, which helps with the card disadvantage Assassin's Trophy creates. The peak price was around $80 at the end of March 2018, so the target sell price of $65 is pretty conservative, but also quite a jump from the current market price of $51.

Office Hours

Lastly, as some of you might have already seen from Sigmund Ausfresser’s recent article, he and I will be hosting Quiet Speculation’s first Office Hours. If you have a subscription, join us in the Discord for an ask-us-anything session.

We can chat about things like…

Tournament MTG finance
Old School Magic
Guilds of Ravnica spoilers
Upcoming Banned and Restricted Announcement
Whatever else

When: Thursday, September 27 at 9pm Eastern
Where: Quiet Speculation Discord Channel
Who: Sigmund Ausfresser & Edward Eng
Why: To increase community engagement
What: Anything goes

Summary

Hold ‘Em

Sylvan Scrying - FNM Promos
Eldrazi Temple - Modern Masters 2015 (Non-Foil & Foil)
Nature's Claim - Iconic Masters (Foil)
Mutagenic Growth - Modern Masters 2015 (Foil)
Mishra's Bauble - Iconic Masters (Foil)
Smash to Smithereens - FNM Promos
Skirk Prospector - Dominaria (Foil)
Worship - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations

Fold ‘Em

Dragonskull Summit - Ixalan (Non-Foil & Foil)
Drowned Catacomb - Ixalan (Non-Foil & Foil)
Glacial Fortress - Ixalan (Non-Foil & Foil)
Rootbound Crag - Ixalan (Non-Foil & Foil)
Sunpetal Grove - Ixalan (Non-Foil & Foil)
Clifftop Retreat - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
Hinterland Harbor - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
Isolated Chapel - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
Sulfur Falls - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
Woodland Cemetery - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
Faithless Looting - Eternal Masters (Foil)
Tarmogoyf - Modern Masters 2017 (Non-Foil)
Dark Confidant - Modern Masters 2015 (Non-Foil)

Office Hours

Thursday, September 27 at 9pm Eastern in the Quiet Speculation Discord Channel

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Bulk Management for Max Value

Posted on September 12, 2018September 12, 2018 by Brian DeMars

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Everybody wants to get something for nothing, and today, I'm going to share a tried-and-true way that I consistently extract exactly something from nothing from my bulk cards. The key to my strategy is patience and organization, but with a little bit of both, you'll be able to start raking in that easy free value down the road.

What is Bulk?

If you're reading this article, you probably have at least a rough idea of what constitutes bulk MTG cards. Essentially, these are cards that do not have value attached to the name of the card, only value attached to simply being a Magic card of a specific rarity.

These are cards that basically have bottom-basement pricing when it comes to their individual values. Most retailers will buy bulk rares for ten cents apiece, and most will buy bulk commons and uncommons for between $2 and $3 per 1,000. That is basically the cheapest that Magic cards can be acquired in bulk, since they can always be sold and bought at that bulk price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Abyss

The reason that retailers buy bulk Magic cards is that they are betting that there will be non-bulk items mixed into the bulk that they can pull out, sell for a premium, and then resell the bulk for the same price or better. It is also worth noting that it is pretty much impossible to make a bad bulk investment, since you are paying a price that you are almost guaranteed to be offered up in return.

The biggest problems with bulk as a strategy is that it takes up a lot of time and storage space. The biggest upside of bulk is that it is guaranteed to make variable price gains over time and has almost no risk on investment.

Mitigating Downside, Maximizing Upside

So, I've already stated that storage and time are the downside and the upiside is basically guaranteed. Why is the upside guaranteed?

Well, when it comes to bulk, we are looking for outliers. Indivdiual cards in the bulk that are, in fact, not bulk at all. This can happen in a number of ways. Sometimes people don't pull out legitimately good commons and uncommons when they sell off their bulk, sometimes they miss them, and most importantly, cards can very easily go from being a bulk card to a money card given some time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serum Visions

You don't have to look very hard at the Pauper and Modern landscape to see that it is riddled with cards that used to be bulk at one time and are now vaulable: Conflagrate, Standard Bearer, Mishra's Bauble, Gorilla Shaman... The list has got to be in the hundreds deep at this point.

My theory of bulk is to basically bet on the aforementioned phenomenon being something that is intrinsc and repeatable in MTG finance, because it is.

The part of the equation that is both the cost and the metric by which value is gained is time. The cost is the time it takes to sort through thousands of bulk cards. However, it is also the passage of time that will allow indivdiual cards in the bulk to gain value.

Here's an example:

I will always buy bulk from my friends and MTG acquaintances because I think it's great value. When they mention they are going to sell their bulk, I'll simply jump in and offer to match the $2 per 1,000 cards.

So, let's say I bought 4,000 cards for $8.00. I could sort through those cards immediately. It would probably take me about a half hour to get through the collection. I'm presented the option to pick through the collection immediately and probably find a few above-bulk cards to pull out that I can immediately resell to gain my $8 back – except, I'm up a few above average commons and uncommons.

The problem is that most savvy sellers will spend the half-hour up front to pick out those good cards upfront, making it unlikely to find much real value.

My strategy, is that I take that box of bulk, write the date I acquired it on it somewhere, and stash it away with my other bulk to come back to later once more time has passed. By doing this, I'm not wasting my time by sifting through stacks of cards where I'm unlikely to find anything that is worth the time I'm spending sorting.

Time has value, and I don't mean to waste mine doing things that have very little value. Minimum wage is like $10 an hour, I certainly wouldn't want to be doing work and making a profit that is less than that. The cool thing about bulk cards is that if you hold onto that 4,000-card purchase for a two years, you'll almost certainly be finding enough cards that have gained value to be worth your time. In fact, I'd expect to do much, much better than $10.00 profit per hour after selling.

You can also sort bulk in cycles to make profit. For instance, after I've waited a year to go through bulk for the first time I'll sort those cards into three different piles:

Good cards I'm pulling out to sell and trade
Cards that are better than bulk and have future potential
Cards that I want to bulk off

Some cards are so obviously bad that there is no reason to keep them around. For instance, there is basically no world where I need to save Grizzly Bears and Hill Giants. These cards have zero potential, and they are the kind of cards that I'd like to sell off in bulk once I get the chance.

There was an error retrieving a chart for One With Nothing

In a 4,000-card lot that has been ripening for a year, I'd expect to find between 50 and 100 legitimate cards that have become better than bulk. I'd expect to hold onto about 1,000 cards that I think are interesting or have potential. I'd sell the other 3,000 cards as bulk.

The key on the resell is threefold:

I've already spent my time looking at these 3,000 bad cards once. I don't want to spend my time looking at them again if the likihood of new value is approaching zero.
I don't want to use my house space to store bad cards that have little upside.
When you cash them out, you make back your initial investment and can reinivest.

It is a tried-and-true strategy that I've developed over the course of many, many years doing picking and acquisition for my LGS. Bulk is insane for value if you do it poorly, but if you do it intelligently and with a strategy, it is extremely profitable and most importantly, repeatable and reproducable.

The downside is that it takes time to work. You may read the article today and be like: "Wow, that's great – I'm going to do that!" And then realize it would require buying bulk and shelving it for two years. It's not exactly the most exciting thing in the world.

However, imagine it's four years from now and you've been working the process. You've made back 50 percent of your investment by selling off the "true bulk" on the first picking. You've hit every single Pauper and Modern "out of nowhere" spike between four and 10 times over the course of the past few years, and you are now set up to hit every future spike down the road.

I do the same thing with my own bulk that I generate. I never sell my bulk commons, uncommons, rares, or foils right away. I save those in boxes labeled by set: "Ixaland Draft Bulk - Last sorted August 5, 2018." It's a little bit of effort upfront for a big payoff down the road.

Undervalued Cards in Standard (Part 3 – DOM)

Posted on September 12, 2018September 12, 2018 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers.

Today continues my series on undervalued mythics in Standard. (Check out Part 1 on Ixalan and Part 2 on Rivals of Ixalan if you haven't yet). Today's focus is on Dominaria. I will continue to use the four characteristics I laid out before:

There is a superior alternative currently available.
There is currently a more powerful archetype that makes the card unplayable.
The card lacks necessary support (either color or archetypal).
The card has been misevaluated.

Dominaria

There was an error retrieving a chart for Darigaaz Reincarnated

Currently we have Rekindling Phoenix as a recursive threat, which is three mana less and two fewer colors compared to Darigaaz.
There currently aren't any good Jund decks in Standard. However, that may change at rotation.
Having three different colors in its mana cost means that it isn't a very splashable card, so it would likely only fit in an actual Jund deck.
This card has been properly evaluated (and it's just not very good).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Demonlord Belzenlok

There isn't any other card like it, however, our current Standard environment can easily have a player dead before one gets the mana to play a six-drop (thanks to RB aggro). Trying to resolve a six-drop through counterspells is also hard right now.
There isn't an archetype that can really abuse this card in the current environment.
In the current environment black is more of a splash color as opposed to a main color (and the double-black is something to keep in mind).
This card could have some potential if the format slows down, and/or if a black-based deck develops that can go toe to toe with UW Control. If you look at this card as a 6/6 flying trampler that draws you at least one nonland card, it does seem like it could find a home.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jaya Ballard

The current environment has Chandra, Torch of Defiance as a powerful red planeswalker, that produces mana without restrictions and can provide additional cards.
Current red decks in the environment don't want a planeswalker that costs five and can't remove a potential blocker (despite the fact that her card-filtering ability can be good for aggro decks).
This type of card belongs best in a spell-based R/x deck (that plays a lot of instants/sorceries) to utilize the big mana boost she provides. Unfortunately, there isn't one in the current environment. However, that doesn't mean one won't develop. I've actually been playing a couple copies in a Nexus of Fate deck, as she can help you cast it the turn after you play her with mana to spare.
I think she's been properly evaluated, however, she just doesn't have a home at this time. This is definitely the type of card that, should a deck develop, would jump to $10-$15 easily (and likely for a short time).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain

There isn't any similar card in the format (unless you count Sai, Master Thopterist).
There is a UR Paradoxical Deck that is playable, but it is inferior in power level to both RB Aggro and UW Control.
There is currently a lot of support for the UR Paradoxical Outcome deck. Jhoira and Paradoxical Outcome seem like an awesome combo if there are enough cheap artifacts.
This card does seem like it's on the cusp of being broken (it allows free card draw in a color combination that often plays a lot of artifacts). The real question is whether we'll get anything to replace Paradoxical Outcome, or any additional zero- to one-drop artifacts worth playing on their own.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Muldrotha, the Gravetide

There isn't any card that provides the same repeatable card advantage (and this card started out at $10 thanks to Commander demand).
There isn't any Sultai midrange deck in the format. However, that color combination does provide the options needed to hang with UW Control and/or R/x Aggro.
The biggest problem is that there currently aren't enough Sultai-colored permanents that can be repeatedly used to really abuse Muldrotha. However, with both Golgari and Dimir guilds coming out in Guilds of Ravnica it's important to keep this card in mind.
The card has been properly evaluated (as Commander players know how powerful it is), it just doesn't have a home currently.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar

As mentioned previously there is already Rekindling Phoenix as a powerful recursive threat in the format. While Multani is green instead of red, it's also costs two more, and requires mana to recur it, as opposed to Phoenix which is free. And there is Ghalta, Primal Hunger filling up the giant green threat spot (which can often be cast with six or less mana).
Currently green is one of the weaker colors of Standard. The only decks playing it are Mono-Green Aggro, BG Snek, and Bant Nexus, none of which have space for this six-drop creature.
While we do have Wayward Swordtooth to provide more land drops, there just isn't any big reason to try to play Multani.
This card seems properly evaluated, and simply bad.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Naru Meha, Master Wizard

If you want to double a spell it seems like a flipped Primal Amulet would be a better option as it doesn't add an additional four mana to the spell to do so. If you want a Wizard lord, it seems like Metallic Mimic is a better option, as its pumps stick around even when it dies.
Currently there is no room for a card like this in UW Control (which is the best blue-based deck in Standard). There is a UR Wizards deck floating around, however, it's slower than RB Aggro.
There are a fair number of Wizards in Standard right now, however, Naru just costs too much and does too little to make it worth playing.
This card has been properly evaluated.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Scriptures

Currently the best four-drop removal spell in black is Vraska's Contempt. While Scriptures is definitely the best black mass-removal spell in Standard, its delayed trigger allows the opponent to avoid overcommitting to the board, which greatly reduces its power level.
As stated earlier, black is predominately a splash color for removal in the current Standard environment, so there isn't any existing archetype that might play this card.
There isn't a ton of support for this card, however, it is important to note that this card plays somewhat well with Muldrotha as a repeatable, though slow, wrath effect.
This card actually started out in the $10-$15 range, before dropping down to near-bulk status. It's definitely one to keep an eye on—if the format slows down and black decks become an archetype with either Golgari, Dimir, or possibly Sultai, when Guilds comes out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Verix Bladewing

This card has been compared a lot to Broodmate Dragon. Right now Standard seems to prefer Rekindling Phoenix as the four-power flier for 2RR (thanks to its recursive ability) as opposed to one that gets better in a longer game like Verix.
Currently the RB aggro decks have very low mana curve (typically the only four-drop played is Chandra, Torch of Defiance as she can kill creatures and provide card advantage).
There is definitely plenty of support for red decks currently, although those decks lose a fair amount at rotation. So we'll see if the archetype can stick around and adapt.
This card has been properly evaluated, but it may find a home (especially if we get a Jund midrange deck, as that's the style of deck that really wants a card like this).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Weatherlight

While there isn't any card this is directly similar too, it's still a four-drop that requires three power to crew it.
Currently Heart of Kiran is available and it's much better at protecting planeswalkers. Once we get to rotation, that option won't be around, though I still don't see Weatherlight finding a home in any Tier 1 decks.
There isn't a ton of support for vehicles at this time (as vehicles themselves dominated the Standard format when Kaladesh/Aether Revolt originally released).
This card just does too little for too much—it's been properly evaluated.

Conclusion

I loved Dominaria as a set, and I'm not alone—it was very well received thanks to some powerful cards and a nostalgia factor. This means that a lot of product was opened and a lot of cards are cheap. Due to both Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Karn, Scion of Urza, I also expect a lot of MTGO sets to be redeemed, which will keep the price ceiling on any cards that spike down.

However, I still think some of these mythics have potential and room to grow. While not mythic, I also think the Dominaria check lands have a lot of potential given their very low price and the fact that they play so well with shocks (as we saw back when RTR was released).

Daily Stock Watch – Paradox Engine

Posted on September 11, 2018 by Jamie Robertson San Juan

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Hello, readers and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! The slow movement of card prices recently has continued and I've been looking at what could be good pickups for us from the current Standard sets before they rotate out completely. Currently enjoying its all-time high is our featured card for today and there's no question that it really is a powerful card regardless of the format where you'd like to use it. Even though no specific archetypes are able to abuse its power, it's just hard to ignore and not include in your Commander deck because of its absurd power level.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Paradox Engine

Paradox Engine hasn't enjoyed any success in its Standard life yet it has risen to prominence financially as a casual superstar because of its strong ability. Now a couple of months away from leaving the Standard spotlight, it's enjoying a price tag of $17.04 which is quite high for a mythic that's not exactly relevant in Modern or Standard. This could be attributed to the fact that people has stopped opening Aether Revolt packs even though there are Inventions in it, and that a lot of them are holding out on the good cards from the set. It's also amazing when you consider the fact that there is an MPS version of this card that a lot of Commander collectors might prefer, and the normal version is already inching in on the $20 threshold.

The Colorless Wonders of Commander

There's an awful lot of cards that we could put on the list above but I've chosen them for various reasons. So much variance is what you would encounter in a game of Commander at almost every other game, especially if you're playing the multiplayer version of it, and these cards could be really, really good at any given point of a match. The same could not be said in the game of Duel Commander, because you're either obliged to play something really quick (Saskia the Unyielding) or a deck that's going to combo out of nowhere (Kess, Dissident Mage). This almost automatically disqualifies Paradox Engine from being a beloved Duel Commander card but I could always be wrong. If you have a specific list that abuses Paradox Engine with so much ease, please feel free to hit me up in the comments section below. Who knows? I could just be building a deck like yours!

Aether Revolt Goodies

If you'd like to go shopping for sleepers from this set, this is pretty much the list that I could give you as this would be the same cards that I would be after. Don't forget to include Paradox Engine as this would be a hot commodity in one to two years time when more people have shifted or decided to play Commander to escape the competitive juices of Standard and Modern. I'd be against the idea of buying into normal or PR foils of this card but if it's something that tickles your fancy then by all means do so. I would be more inclined to get the MPS version of this card while it's cheaper but settling for plain, nonfoil copies would also suffice especially if you're into the speculation game. There should be a few hanging around out there and try trading for it at $8-$12 if possible so you could squeeze maximum value out of it once it spikes inevitably to $20 real soon.

At the moment, you could still purchase lots of copies of this card via StarCityGames, TCGPlayer, Card Kingdom, and ChannelFireball for anywhere between $16.38 up to $17.99 for normal copies. It seems that all online stores are firm in its stand to have it in that price range and this is normally a good sign for spec junkies if we are to invest in a card that has casual appeal. Get yours now or some time next month if you feel like the price could still drop before it rotates. I'd be happy to keep my copies now and cash out later on.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Return to the PPTQ Grind: Week 6

Posted on September 11, 2018 by David Ernenwein

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I definitely peaked too soon. There's no possible way to follow up to last week's Jurassic Park intro and not look pale in comparison. I can't even go for the ironic method of pointing out this out, I've done that before. My remaining option is to just awkwardly forge ahead and feel relief that the qualification system will change next year so I don't have to worry about it again.

While it's not what I expected, Guilds of Ravnica is already bringing the Modern cards. Assassin's Trophy is clearly intended as an answer to Tron, and it will absolutely excel in that job. It won't drive Tron out by any means, but it will improve the matchup for GBx decks. I strongly doubt it will suddenly become favorable, but shifting from horrible to even is still a huge swing. More interestingly, I think Trophy will be more impactful for control decks than Jund-esque midrange. Not because it will suddenly make Sultai Control viable, but because it may encourage control to run more win conditions. Trophy hits Celestial Colonnade, Snapcaster Mage, and planeswalkers. Given all the discard GBx already runs, I wouldn't be surprised if UWx was forced to run more ways to close out the game thanks to Trophy.

The Deck

There was almost no way that I wasn't going to run Spirits again. Going Storm in a field of Tron was the only reason I would have switched. Even if Storm had been the clear choice, I had a chip on my shoulder after my abysmal performance last week and wanted to do right by my deck.

UW Spirits, David Ernenwein (PPTQ Quarterfinals)

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer

4 Selfless Spirit

4 Rattlechains

4 Supreme Phantom

2 Remorseful Cleric

2 Phantasmal Image

4 Spell Queller

4 Drogskol Captain

2 Geist of Saint Traft

1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Hallowed Fountain

4 Seachrome Coast

4 Flooded Strand

3 Cavern of Souls

3 Ghost Quarter

2 Plains

1 Island

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence

2 Rest in Peace

2 Blessed Alliance

2 Slaughter the Strong

2 Negate

2 Damping Sphere

1 Echoing Truth

1 Eidolon of Rhetoric

I've made a number of changes, starting with removing Moorland Haunt. Even in testing where it should have turned the tide, I found that Haunt just didn't do enough to justify how often it choked me on mana. The problem is primarily that it's very slow, making it a late-game play. At that point in the game, if 1/1 Spirits can deliver a win, we weren't losing. Besides, most attrition matchups call for Rest in Peace, which completely neuters Haunt.

I've said repeatedly that I don't like Geist in Spirits, and I still don't; he's terrible in creature matchups when we can't can't clear a path. However, further testing suggested that he wasn't measurably different from Vendilion Clique against combo decks and Tron, but far better against control decks. Given that I've seen fewer and fewer creature decks as control's stock continues to rise, Geist seemed like a safe bet for this event.

A weirder addition is Slaughter the Strong in the sideboard. While the sorcery hasn't made any impact in Standard, it was exactly what I was looking for after souring on Settle the Wreckage. Three mana is much more affordable than four for Spirits. And in the matchups where we want sweepers, particularly Humans, I expect to always be behind on the board with fewer than four power, making Slaughter a one-sided sweeper. As a marginal bonus, Bogles has been lurking around, and they have no defense against Slaughter; Leyline of Sanctity answers Settle.

The Tournament

This week took me out to Greeley and the largest play area I'm aware of in Colorado. The shop has two floors, the upper one just for playing. It's so massive that they comfortably fit the six round, 52 player PPTQ and a Star Wars miniature tournament with room to spare. It also meant that there were Star Wars-themed snacks available including blue milk. I got the feeling that for once Magic players weren't the alpha-nerds in the building, and I still don't know how I feel about that.

Greeley is surrounded by farmland, and because I have frequently gotten stuck behind farm equipment going out there, I left so early that I arrived shortly after they opened. My boredom allowed me to scout almost everyone before the tournament started. I observed a lot of Humans, Storm, and control decks, so I was feeling pretty confidant. As I found out walking around after round 1, the field was roughly half control, a third of which was Jeskai, with combo being a minor part. There were also a good number of Spirits decks there of both varieties.

Swiss

The tournament starts out very well, as both round 1 and 2 I am against Jeskai Control. The games go basically how I drew them up, and I stay well ahead throughout. All UW Spirits has to do here is carefully manage its resources, then dictate the field of battle for an easy victory. The only real worry is a miracled Terminus, which is pretty rare out of Jeskai lists.

As my round 2 opponent observed after the match, Spirits is great at dictating which (if any) of its creatures die. Our clock and Vial ensure the opponent's only option is to play their removal and give us the choice between Mausoleum Wanderer, Selfless Spirit, etc. Round 1 tries to flip the table with Dragonlord Ojutai, but I have no reason not to attack into him. Baneslayer Angel would have been far more threatening.

Round three is against Mardu, and I just can't seem to beat that deck. He has a lot of Lingering Souls and Lootings game 1 to stifle and overwhelm me. Game 2 he banks on Liliana, the Last Hope and dumping Souls into his graveyard with Looting, but I Rest them away and then bulldoze through his tokens to kill Liliana with Geist. Unfortunately, I lack a proper follow-up when he gets his eighth land for Bedlam Reveler and pulls inexorably ahead.

Round 4 is against Bant Spirits. I have a great start game 1 and have him at five before he gets a Company off and stabilizes. From that point on, I flood while he draws creatures. Game 2 is an attrition game until I get a slight advantage with lords, allowing me to start chipping in. Eventually I out-removal my opponent, Quarter his Township, and just race. Game 3 we actually mirror each other's plays for the first four turns before the board becomes a lord stall, with him lacking removal for my lords while I have to hope he attacks so that I can break the Drogskol lock with Blessed Alliance. Eventually he obliges, giving me an easy win.

Sitting down for round 5, I can't shake the feeling, just based on looking at him, that my opponent is on Jeskai Ascendancy combo. He was, and I'm not sure what to make of that premonition. Game 1 I have a great curve but no Spell Queller and he has a turn three kill through Mausoleum Wanderer. Game 2 he has Abrupt Decay for my Damping Sphere, but only has one Ascendancy that I Queller, and his deck can't win without it. Game 3 he Glittering Wishes for Ascendancy turn 2 so he can try to win turn 3 before I have Queller up, but I have Negate. He has a lot of cantrips, mana dorks, three maindeck Decays and the fourth he wishes for, but no Ascendancy until he's used up his Decays and I have Queller.

I'm in 9th place thanks to appalling breakers, so I have to play it out. I'm against Jeskai Control again, but game 1 I get wrecked by Terminus and concede with nothing left in hand and facing down a Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I hadn't played around Terminus on account of its relative rarity in Jeskai. Game 2 he's light on removal after a mulligan, and I have an easy victory. Game 3 he gets several Terminuses to stop my early creatures through Wanderer. I get Vial after that and just wait until I can Vial in Geist with Queller protection, and ride Geist to victory.

Top 8

I'm in 2nd place in a Top 8 consisting of Counters Company, two hybrids of Counters Company and GW Valuetown, GR Eldrazi, UW Control, Jeskai Control, Jund, and myself. I'm paired against one of the hybrid decks for the quarterfinals; game 1 he draws the Valuetown part of his deck and I win easily. Game 2 he has a turn three Sigarda, Host of Herons with Gavony Township, and I am too far behind to catch up. He also has Worship, but honestly it wasn't going to matter. For game 3 he goes has the combo part of his deck and that kills me.

This outcome frustrated me because I had Queller to stop the Company that put him in position to combo, but I had kept a hand without a white source or Vial because that was its only flaw. Given how things played out, I believe that with that source, I would have won; I could have then stopped his first two combo tries, and he may not have been able to hit a third before dying.

Lessons Learned

Slowing down and thinking more had the intended benefits. While I know I didn't play perfectly, I was where I expect myself to be, and far above where I have been. Humiliation is sometimes the best medicine.

The real lesson for me here was one of perspective. It's easy to look at my decision to keep game 3 of the quarterfinals as a mistake, but as they say, "hindsight 20/20." It wasn't the best hand in a vacuum, sure, but it had almost all the pieces it needed to win. Such is the nature of calculated risks.

On the Deck

I was very satisfied with my deck and am unlikely to make any changes before the next PPTQ. I didn't actually cast Slaughter, but it's done well enough in testing that I'm not worried. Given the metagame I've been seeing, this configuration strikes a nice balance, and in a vacuum I don't see any need to adjust. There are still niggling problems surrounding the lands, but I haven't found any elegant solutions. Horizon Canopy is the obvious fix for flooding, but is rather awkward in a UW deck and may cause more harm than good. This is probably just a flaw that I must accept and move on.

What was more enlightening for me was my discussions with my round 4 opponent and some other Bant Spirits players over the day. I've maintained that UW is better against control, whereas Bant is better against attrition. While they all wanted it on record that Bant Spirits is still favored against control, they generally agreed with me: Bant has Collected Company; UW is trickier. Bant also has less sideboarding tension. Stony Silence is a powerful card, but clashes with Vial, for example.

What I found surprising was how poor their Tron matchup is and why they feel favored against creature decks. The former comes down to a slower deployment speed and lack of meaningful interaction. UW is slightly faster because Vial makes more mana than Hierarch. It can also play around Oblivion Stone more easily than Bant, though it's just as cold to Ugin. Bant also can't run Ghost Quarter or Mutavault.

Humans is a good matchup for UW, but the Bant players said theirs was almost a bye. My experience differs from those of my colleagues. I have found Bant and UW equally vulnerable to Humans's best starts, but Bant has more ways to catch up in the mid-game and to shut down Humans game 1.

Collected Company is responsible for the first advantage, but the real breaker is Gavony Township. Being able to reliably grow the team is a huge advantage when things start to stall, and as a result Bant can match or surpass other creature decks in raw power. That isn't always relevant because of flying, but the bonus is Township also invalidates toughness based removal. Of course, they cautioned that without at least two each of Township and Horizon Canopy, Bant Spirits can struggle to muster much power.

All this discussion has changed how I differentiate between the decks. When expecting lots of control and Tron, I'll pick UW Spirits. Against a field of attrition and creature decks, Bant seems like a better call.

Winding Down

Next week will probably feature the end of this year's grind reports. Should I miss out on the invite, I will have another chance, since the RPTQ is in-state and I will be hitting the Last Chance Qualifier. Here's hoping it won't come to that, and good luck to everyone still grinding!

Unlocked: Core 19 Financial Power Rankings – Uncommon Edition

Posted on September 10, 2018September 12, 2018 by Kyle Rusciano

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Welcome back to the final article in my financial power rankings for Core 19. In case you missed the others, check out the mythic article and the rare article. There aren't many uncommons to discuss this go around, so this week we're also going to take a look at what uncommons have done well over the past year and which haven't, hoping learning some lessons that can help us judge those in Core 19 and Guilds of Ravnica. Treasure chests have changed the game on uncommons, making them far less lucrative than they were in the past. The good news is that, since Core 19 will have been opened less than all other sets for the past few years, we'll have a little more leeway here than with other sets. Let's dig in!

A brief refresher on the categories:

Risk: Relative to its current price, how much room is there for this card to fall? How much concern should you have that you'll be unloading this card at a loss in the future?
Potential: How much room does this card have to grow? Growth in an absolute sense (dollars and cents) and growth as a rate of return (percentage) are both important factors, and I weight them equally.
Chance of Success: How likely will this card be a successful speculation? Is it a surefire bet or more of a dark horse?

I. What Recent Uncommons Have Done Well on MTGO?

It turns out that uncommons have been doing better than I had given them credit for. There have been a surprising number of uncommons that would have proven to be excellent investments. On average, two to three uncommons per set prove to be worthwhile speculations. Occasionally you get a set like Hour of Devastation, where a whopping eight or nine uncommons shot up in price. Below is a chart of all relevant uncommons from sets Kaladesh through Rivals of Ixalan. Highlighted in green were the cards that saw price gains, and I also note whether the price trajectory surprised me.

I am somewhat disappointed in my predictions of cards in this category over the past year. In particular, I completely missed the Desert land cycle and Thrashing Brontodon, both of which are inexcusable misses. Despite that, I've made a good return off of my investments into uncommons over the past year, which shows you don't have to be perfect with cards in this category to have a solid return:

Money in: $229.71
Money out: $378.33
Rate of Return: 65%

Going forward, I am going to give greater credence to (i) uncommon lands and (ii) versatile removal. I've done well hitting the good traditional removal spells, but not the removal spells like Brontodon or Cast Out that hit multiple types of permanents. That level of versatility is what helps these uncommons see play in the wide variety of decks necessary to move the price needle up.

And now onto the rankings!! All of the below are at bulk prices and can be bought for 0.02 tix or less.

6. Shield Mare

Risk: Minimal
Potential: Limited
Chance of Success: 5%

Potentially a good sideboard staple for white decks, but my fear is that the competition at this slot is just too stiff. Even if you're playing against Burn, would you rather play Shield Mare than History of Benalia? Perhaps, but I'm skeptical. As with Draconic Disciple, I'm going to hold onto a few of them to play with, but I'm not going to invest.

Verdict: D

5. Dryad Greekseeker

Risk: Minimal
Potential: Limited-Moderate
Chance of Success: 5%

This card is just plain good, and I'm surprised it hasn't already started seeing Standard play. If it holds the two-drop slot of two major midrange archetypes in Guilds of Ravnica Standard, I think it will rise to 0.20-0.40 tix. Given Guilds of Ravnica's graveyard theme, I think Merfolk Branchwalker will likely be the preferred two drop, but Dryad Greenseeker is excellent with Wayward Swordtooth and an excellent card advantage engine. We'll see!

Verdict: D

4. Plague Mare

Risk: Minimal
Potential: Limited-Moderate
Chance of Success: 25%

Depending on what we see out of future sets, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Plague Mare becomes an ideal sideboard staple to combat white and red aggro decks. I'm actually pretty optimistic that this card will see spikes north of 0.20 tix, and could go as high as 0.50 tix if the metagame breaks a certain way. Definitely a good pickup and marks the beginning of the good speculation opportunities for Core 19 uncommons.

Verdict: C

3. Militia Bugler

Risk: Minimal
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 60%

Simply stated, Bugler is a good card from a small set. Its potential is largely rooted in its Eternal playability, and perhaps we will see it in action alongside Mentor of the Meek in Standard. Considering that Core 19 will have a lower supply than almost any set in recent memory, I think Bugler will likely pay off as an investment. It might take a while, but wouldn't you rather have that 1 ticket be 50 Buglers instead? I know I would.

Verdict: B

2. Stitcher's Supplier

Risk: Minimal
Potential: Moderate
Chance of Success: 70%

Stitcher's Supplier is similar to Militia Bugler in so many ways. It does something at a great rate that certain decks in all formats want. Especially considering that the upcoming Golgari and Dimir mechanics center around the graveyard, I think the future is bright for this card's financial future. It is a narrower effect than I'm usually comfortable with on an uncommon, but its eternal demand makes up for that. It's currently at bulk for crying out loud!

Verdict: B+

1. Vine Mare

Risk: Minimal
Potential: Moderate-High
Chance of Success: 90%

Vine Mare is just too good to not see significant Standard play. It's an essential card for green sideboards as it's fantastic against control decks, and it's just a powerful card in its own right in the main deck. Oh yea, and Sarkhan's Unsealing is a thing.

I'll take 100 copies, please.

Verdict: A