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Daily Stock Watch – Grasp of Fate

Posted on August 24, 2018 by Jamie Robertson San Juan

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Hello, everyone and welcome to this week's last edition of the Daily Stock Watch! It's time for our freaky Friday pick and I'm going for a safe one this time in a sense that it's something that's really seeing play in Commander, but isn't really something that's game changing based on its power in the format where it's utilized. It's more of a multiplayer superstar otherwise, we'd consider it as a glorified Oblivion Ring at best.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grasp of Fate

If you're playing against two to three friends, this card is an absolute superstar that could annoy your opponents and put you in a good position to win especially if they're playing around their commanders or certain pieces in their deck. That reason (and appeal) alone has pushed it to an average price of $12.38 as of writing time which is good enough to merit our attention for this writing. But is it really good enough to invest in a $10 card that does something that other cards of way lesser value can do?

Permanent Eaters

These cards can get the job done and sometimes even better than what Grasp of Fate can do but none of them costs higher financially than it. I understand that multiplayer Commander is a real format that's popular among a lot of players and that Grasp of Fate has only been printed once via Commander 2015 and it has been able to dodge the proverbial reprint axe in Commander 2018. Fears of buying in has subsided after the full list of the set has been spoiled and there's no sighting of the card which then allows those who kept their faith in it to gasp a sigh of relief and start moving their copies for more value. Unless WotC decides to come up with a set that's very much like Battlebond in the near future, I don't think we'll be seeing any trace of this card anytime soon. In the best case scenario, a functional reprint could occur which spares Grasp of Fate from financial damages and further boosts its reputation as a $10+ with potential room for more growth.

Upon further research, I was able to find out that there are still multiple copies of Grasp of Fate out there in the market which only means that its price has climbed up due to the consensus of the vendors to refill their once empty inventories at the current rate. Something like this occasionally happens to cards that have only been printed once and is possibly due for a reprint in an up coming set based on calculated predictions (a Commander exclusive set is printed once a year which precariously placed Grasp of Fate in the risk of getting reprinted there) or if a new theme in the upcoming Commander set would make it stronger (which was the case with the spike of Temporal Mastery and other cards with the creature type "ninja"). With all these factors in mind, my assessment is that we could actually have a bit of a wiggle room to spec on the card since there won't be much supplies of it in the open market soon once current stocks run dry and the knowledge that there will be a continuous demand for the card because it is a strong role player for any multiplayer or even a basic duel Commander deck that would like to run multiple copies of cards that has the Oblivion Ring effect. There should be very little room for error in betting on this card.

At the moment, you could still get copies of Grasp of Fate from StarCityGames, Card Kingdom and multiple vendors on TCGPlayer for anywhere between $9.97 up to $12.99. There are no foil copies of this in existence yet and it would definitely cost quite a fortune if it gets a foil version. I think that now's the best time to get your preferred number of copies for speculation and usage purposes while the window of opportunity is out there. We could possibly be staring at a buyout of it real soon.

And that’s it for this week's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Brew Report: Further Down the Spiral

Posted on August 24, 2018 by Jordan Boisvert

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Now that the maniacal calls for banning Bridgevine have subsided, Modern players and observers alike are free to gaze once more at the format's incredible diversity. In this week's Brew Report, we'll take a look at novel interpretations of Jund, Delver, and Zoo from online leagues.

Once You Go Jund...

I know a few Jund players who will always play Jund. They played it before Bloodbraid Elf was banned, while it was banned, and when it was unbanned. Although Abzan Traverse seems to be performing more consistently in online Modern leagues, some players just won't put down Jund, and the archetype's even seeing some innovation.

If It Ain't Broke, Put It in Jund

Faithless Jund, by BLADEDE (5-0)

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf

2 Scavenging Ooze

2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar

2 Bedlam Reveler

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

2 Liliana, the Last Hope

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Fatal Push

3 Kolaghan's Command

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Maelstrom Pulse

3 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire

4 Verdant Catacombs

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

1 Blooming Marsh

3 Raging Ravine

2 Overgrown Tomb

1 Stomping Ground

1 Blood Crypt

2 Swamp

1 Forest

1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Fatal Push

3 Ancient Grudge

2 Collective Brutality

4 Fulminator Mage

1 Huntmaster of the Fells

Faithless Looting and Bedlam Reveler have carried Mardu Pyromancer head-and-shoulders above other black midrange decks in Modern, with the highly reversible Grixis Shadow the lone exception. BLADEDE thought to add this engine into Jund.

What's missing? For starters, Dark Confidant and Bloodbraid Elf. These two creatures have long buoyed the strategy alongside Tarmogoyf, but now only the green creature remains. Reveler adds the card advantage element back into the deck, and Looting is a significant upgrade to Confidant in terms of raw velocity. Scavenging Ooze remains as incidental graveyard hate and a randomly huge creature, while Pia and Kiran Nalaar introduce a go-wide element to attack opponents from another angle while providing removal and reach.

Other notable changes include the Liliana split, perhaps preferable with Looting to find the right one (or a combination of both), and the streamlined sideboard. I feel like this sideboard is probably untuned; its numbers are just so blocky for Jund. But of course I'm a fan of the lone Huntmaster of the Fells. Hunt takes over the game unanswered, as Confidant once did in this deck, and eats creature matchups alive.

Have You Seen This Walker?

Sarkhanless Jund, by TYHENDO (5-0)

Creatures

4 Bloodbraid Elf

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Goblin Chainwhirler

2 Glorybringer

Planeswalkers

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Fatal Push

2 Abrade

2 Terminate

3 Kolaghan's Command

Sorceries

2 Inquisition of Kozilek

4 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills

4 Bloodstained Mire

2 Verdant Catacombs

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Grove of the Burnwillows

1 Dragonskull Summit

3 Raging Ravine

2 Blood Crypt

1 Stomping Ground

1 Mountain

1 Swamp

Sideboard

4 Leyline of the Void

2 Ancient Grudge

2 Anger of the Gods

2 Collective Brutality

2 Fulminator Mage

1 Roast

2 Stormbreath Dragon

Here, Bloodbraid Elf makes a triumphant return—interestingly, without Liliana. Instead, Chandra, Torch of Defiance holds down the planeswalker slot. But Chandra isn't a cascade hit, making Bloodbraid worse on average. Since this deck tops out the curve with Glorybringer, yet another cascade miss, I assumed Sarkhan, Fireblood would make an appearance; even Stormbreath Dragon's in the sideboard, along with 4 Leyline of the Void, a card pilots love to loot away.

Taking the place of expected three-drops is Goblin Chainwhirler, which is surely the reason to play this build of Jund. Unfortunately, I'm strapped for specifics as to why. Noble Hierarch decks aren't ultra-popular right now, and Affinity seems to be trending Hardened. The most convincing reason I can come up with is Lingering Souls, by any standard an irritating card for Jund to deal with... albeit one they've adopted an elegant answer to in Liliana the Last Hope, a card absent from this list. Young Pyromancer, another primer threat from Mardu Pyromancer, also bites it to Whirler. But if anyone has more insight about this deck, I'd love to hear it!

Never Flip

Delver of Secrets has been experiencing a renaissance of sorts since Jeff Hoogland's 13-0 performance with UR Wizards at SCG Indy. These new Delver lists keep Wizard's Lightning but ease up on expensive, reactive, blue instants, a trend I can get behind.

But Literally

Wizard Tribal, by DYLAN93 (5-0)

Creatures

3 Adeliz, the Cinder Wind

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Soul-Scar Mage

4 Ghitu Lavarunner

4 Stormchaser Mage

2 Snapcaster Mage

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Wizard's Lightning

4 Opt

3 Mutagenic Growth

2 Vapor Snag

Lands

4 Shivan Reef

4 Spirebluff Canal

4 Steam Vents

3 Island

3 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Ceremonious Rejection

1 Disdainful Stroke

2 Dismember

2 Dispel

1 Negate

2 Smash to Smithereens

2 Spell Pierce

2 Tormod's Crypt

When DYLAN93 heard UR Wizards was viable in Modern, he wasted no time in assembling a squad—including Ghitu Lavarunner, a Wizard Goblin Guide, and even Adeliz, the Cinder Wind to benefit further from staying on-theme. All that flavor-winning translated into an actual 5-0.

Mutagenic Growth saves every creature here from Lightning Bolt, as well as from the plethora of other toughness-based removal options currently patrolling Modern (Collective Brutality, Electrolyze, etc.). And every Wizards player knows the value of Lightning Bolt, since they all run eight of them. While slower than Humans, Wizards lines up favorably against aggro's boogeyman, as its heavy removal suite excels at picking apart creature synergies.

If Eight Bolts Are Good...

UR Delver, by ALICE1986_ (5-0)

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Soul-Scar Mage

4 Monastery Swiftspear

3 Grim Lavamancer

3 Snapcaster Mage

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike

4 Serum Visions

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Wizard's Lightning

4 Opt

2 Burst Lightning

1 Vapor Snag

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn

3 Arid Mesa

2 Flooded Strand

4 Spirebluff Canal

2 Steam Vents

2 Island

2 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Ceremonious Rejection

1 Dismember

2 Dispel

2 Izzet Staticaster

2 Negate

3 Relic of Progenitus

3 Smash to Smithereens

ALICE1986_'s take on UR Delver trades in DYLAN93's synergy elements not for Hoogland's permission, but for Burn's reach. Lava Spike is the chief addition here, and gives the deck more of an aggro-combo bent, as well as improving the reach plan against removal-heavy strategies. Grim Lavamancer also makes a comeback, both to cover for Spike against creature decks and to add more burn in general.

I noticed couple interesting things about these Delver decks. For one, despite not splashing a third color, they don't run Blood Moon. That's because they have other lines against both midrange decks and big mana strategies, namely murda-ing dem. Moon is simply too slow.

Second, they each run a bare-bones instant/sorcery count, ranging from 21 to 23. Most other Delver decks seem to be following suit. That's as low as we've seen the count in Modern since the pre-Return to Ravnica days. Folks are catching on to Delver's value as a lightning rod in decks with a critical mass of juicy targets. When it dies on site, the creature doesn't have to flip right away, and these decks are built to maximize Delver even if it takes a couple upkeeps to give up its Wizard status.

Back in the Zoo

With aggro performing so well, it's no surprise the king of aggro decks has reared its head, albeit in some unconventional forms.

Value... the Goodstuff Way

Naya Traverse, by THE_GUNSLINGERS (5-0)

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl

2 Vexing Devil

4 Tarmogoyf

3 Scavenging Ooze

3 Voice of Resurgence

3 Renegade Rallier

1 Qasali Pridemage

1 Remorseful Cleric

1 Magus of the Moon

1 Hazoret the Fervent

1 Street Wraith

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Enchantments

3 Seal of Fire

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Rift Bolt

3 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

4 Windswept Heath

4 Wooded Foothills

1 Arid Mesa

1 Horizon Canopy

2 Stomping Ground

1 Sacred Foundry

1 Temple Garden

2 Forest

1 Mountain

1 Plains

Sideboard

2 Qasali Pridemage

2 Alpine Moon

1 Ancient Grudge

1 Eidolon of Rhetoric

1 Gaddock Teeg

1 Ghost Quarter

1 Kataki, War's Wage

3 Kitchen Finks

1 Phyrexian Revoker

2 Stony Silence

Todd Stevens put up a surprise 5-0 with his first run of Naya Traverse, a deck apparently suggested by a stream viewer. He didn't drop a game.

This deck disoriented me at first glance, but after a few test runs of my own, I started to understand its components. Rift Bolt and Vexing Devil may seem like sub-par burn spells, but they fill a critical role in getting much-needed card types into the graveyard. Devil is particularly exciting in this role: opponents that let an early Devil resolve are bound to kill it quickly, while removal-light opponents are likelier to take 4 damage on the nose. Devil even comes back for Rallier against linear decks that don't fill the graveyard with targets. The creature therefore ends up a better Lava Spike.

For its part, Rift Bolt is a worse Lava Spike against those same decks without removal. But it's significantly better in creature matchups, which are plentiful nowadays. Rift lets pilots double up on Bolt effects to supplement the significantly weaker Seal of Fire. Seal, too, has its uses; besides providing the enchantment type for delirium, its sacrifice ability teams up with Mishra's Bauble to easily trigger revolt on Renegade Rallier.

Speaking of Rallier, that's the card that makes this deck tick, and the reason to play it over a more proactive aggro deck like Goblins or Bridgevine. Essentially a Snapcaster Mage for creatures, Rallier's at its very best in removal spell matchups, where it ideally revives a Voice of Resurgence or Tarmogoyf opponents have already spent considerable resources removing. Against control and graveyard combo decks, bringing back Scavenging Ooze can also prove fatal. And with Traverse in the picture, Rallier squeezes extra activations out of single-use bullets like Qasali Pridemage and Remorseful Cleric, giving pilots access to those niche effects multiple times in game 1.

In linear matchups, Rallier still has a role, increasing aggression either with Vexing Devil or by buying back a fetchland. More mana means more plays, and when the plan is cast everything fast and kill them first, another Windswept Heath can't hurt.

I wonder if this deck doesn't have too many bullets. Street Wraith in particular seems superfluous to me. In dire need of a noncreature, nonland card, Traverse becomes a Phyrexian cantrip, but I don't see that scenario arising often; if it's present for delirium purposes, I'd rather just have Tarfire, or even a fourth Seal. The sideboard bullets seem fine, though, especially Phyrexian Revoker, which neutralizes both enemy planeswalkers and Krark-Clan Ironworks.

Splashing a Zoo

Landfall Scapeshift, by CLEMAGLE (5-0)

CLEMAGLE 5-0

Creatures

4 Steppe Lynx

4 Plated Geopede

4 Knight of the Reliquary

Enchantments

4 Prismatic Omen

Instants

4 Manamorphose

Sorceries

4 Boom // Bust

4 Explore

4 Scapeshift

Lands

4 Windswept Heath

4 Wooded Foothills

4 Flagstones of Trokair

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

1 Sejiri Steppe

4 Stomping Ground

4 Sacred Foundry

1 Temple Garden

1 Forest

1 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Path to Exile

4 Pyroclasm

3 Stony Silence

1 Rest in Peace

1 Bojuka Bog

1 Shatterstorm

1 Soaring Seacliff

Landfall Scapeshift isn't a new deck by any means—the deck looks the same as it did in 2016, when Jeff Hoogland ported an Extended shell into Modern to take 3rd in a StarCityGames Classic. Old decks occasionally doing well is no huge surprise in Modern, but I am surprised this time around.

The format has changed significantly since 2016. Fatal Push punishes players for sinking resources into creatures that cost two or less, such as Steppe Lynx and Plated Geopede; combo decks are faster and more resilient; hosers abound, namely Damping Sphere.

So how did Landfall Scapeshift score a 5-0? Dumb luck? Or is the deck secretly well-positioned in this metagame? To its credit, the deck attacks from two totally independent angles, but the enablers on each side don't have much tension. Landfall creatures plus Boom probably does a number on big mana. And Scapeshift can cheese midrange decks. All that might just be enough!

Never 2 Much

Let me know your thoughts about these brews in the comments. And if something caught your eye that I didn't mention here, feel free to share that, too; I had to pick and choose which brews to share today because I found so many. Until next week, remain vigilant in this dynamic Modern!

Undervalued Cards in Standard (Part 1 – Ixalan)

Posted on August 24, 2018August 24, 2018 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers!

We often call a card “undervalued” and make financial decisions based on this evaluation, but what does that really mean?

Well, the basic definition of value itself is simply relative worth. The key word being relative. A card’s value is never defined in a vacuum. This is why cards can suddenly shoot up in price when a new card that combos with them is spoiled, and why card prices almost always drop right after a set’s release.

Knowing that card values are all relative to each other, we can look at the undervalued cards in the non-rotating sets and see if we can find any cards that would be good investments into the new Standard. Without knowing exactly what is in the fall set, Guilds of Ravnica, we can’t be certain on anything, but we shouldn’t allow that uncertainty to drive us toward inaction. After all, speculation by its definition requires risk.

The other factor we want to consider is what is behind the undervaluation. Some of the more common reasons a card is undervalued are:

There is a superior alternative currently available.
There is currently a more powerful archetype that makes the card unplayable.
The card lacks necessary support (either color or archetypal).
The card has been misevaluated.

Knowing these factors, one can deduce which ones may change with rotation and thus likely cause a change in a card's valuation (note that these factors can also cause a card that is currently highly valued to drop in value).

Now, we also know which cards will be leaving the format, so we can guesstimate an updated valuation for any given card. Again, keep in mind that we don’t have spoilers for Guilds of Ravnica, so our valuation could be very far off depending on said spoilers.

For now, we will focus on non-rotating mythics worth less than $9 that could be competitive. For my analysis these will have a converted mana cost of six or less, as we have very rarely seen Tier 1 standard staples that exceeded that cost, without some form of cost reduction stapled to it. Today I'll cover Ixalan, and in subsequent articles we'll look at the other sets.

Ixalan

There was an error retrieving a chart for Admiral Beckett Brass

There is no superior alternative to this card currently available.
The Pirates archetype is underwhelming in its current state. There are some good synergies, but the mana base is a bit stretched and there aren’t enough individually powerful cards to justify playing a Pirate-specific deck.
There isn’t enough support for a Pirates archetype, and we aren’t likely to see a strong pirate theme in Guilds of Ravnica.
The card just doesn’t do enough to warrant building around it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Axis of Mortality

There is no superior alternative to this card currently available.
Cards that cost six mana and don’t do anything the turn they are played typically don’t find a home in any competitive format.
This type of card serves as a decent “reset” button if the board can be stalled to a point where it’s worth a significant life point swing.
This card seems too niche to have much of a chance at significant gains.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dire Fleet Ravager

There isn’t exactly an alternative to this card, however, the current domination of RB Aggro makes it much worse. Typically the opponent is down a significant amount of their life by turn 5 (when one could play this card) so it doesn’t do as much.
As stated previously, the Pirate archetype doesn’t currently seem powerful enough to fall into Tier 1 status and it just doesn’t really do enough compared to other five-drops in the format (like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria).
Currently neither black- nor Pirate-themed decks seem to have enough power to move into Tier 1 status. We may see a shift more towards black when both Abrade and Harnessed Lightning leave the format. The color may be helped by the fact that currently our best instant-speed catchall removal is Vraska's Contempt, which happens to be a pretty clean answer to Teferi.
While I could see this card finding a home in casual or Commander decks, I don’t think it does enough to be playable in a Tier 1 deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Huatli, Warrior Poet

While there isn’t a direct alternative to this card, there is a much better five-drop planeswalker (Teferi, Hero of Dominaria).
This planeswalker seems to have been built for a Boros or Naya Dinosaur deck, yet one has never materialized. I do actually think Dinosaurs could be a viable archetype in the future Standard environment—their biggest downside is that they just aren’t as fast as the current Mono-Green Stompy or Mono-Red Aggro decks. However, Mono-Red loses a lot at rotation and if the format slows down, some Dinosaurs could be good in a midrange archetype. The challenge is that the best Dinosaurs are green (Ripjaw Raptor, Thrashing Brontodon, and Deathgorge Scavenger), so this would require playing a Naya version to justify running this version of Huatli.
As stated above, there is support for this card, however, that support is mainly in green. Whether this card makes stretching the mana base to three colors worth it is yet to be determined.
Had this card been Gruul I think it would have a much higher probability of finding a home in a Dinosaur-based midrange deck. As a Boros card, I don’t think there's a high probability of it finding a home in a Tier 1 Standard deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Cunning Castaway

There is currently no alternative to this card.
This card would likely fit best in an aggro or tempo style deck. While many had hoped that Simic Merfolk would be an established archetype it hasn’t happened yet. It does come close, though, so with a drop in red aggro it may finally find a spot in competitive Standard.
Jace himself isn’t a build-around-me card, nor are any of his abilities so powerful to justify inclusion in any blue deck. Both of his minus abilities produce tokens, so his abilities would be most comfortable in a token-based deck (like one with Anointed Procession).
Low-cost planeswalkers are always worth keeping an eye on. Planeswalkers provide a mana-free benefit every turn so the lower the converted mana cost the sooner one can take advantage of said benefits. Jace’s biggest problem is that he drops to one loyalty to protect himself (by making a token) so a Goblin Chainwhirler from the opponent still kills him and leaves the Illusion token staring at a brick wall.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rowdy Crew

We currently don’t have any creatures with a better draw-discard effect than [card[Rowdy Crew[/card]. We do have Cathartic Reunion to serve as a better draw-discard outlet, as you actually get to choose what is discarded.
This card did find a home in the Rx God-Pharaoh’s Gift decks a while back. Those have gradually declined in the metagame, mainly because resolving and keeping a seven-drop artifact against a field of Disallows and Abrades isn't very likely.
This card actually has a fair amount of support currently (mainly with God-Pharaoh's Gift which turns the discard into a potential plus). Unlike the artifact, however, it’s not powerful enough on its own to build around.
This card doesn’t come off as overtly powerful, especially when turning the discard into a benefit is gone.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vona, Butcher of Magan

Vona provides repeated nonland Vindicates, which is unique in the current Standard environment.
The biggest challenge is that thanks to Goblin Chainwhirler, and before it Rampaging Ferocidon, the WB Vampires archetype has never really gotten a foothold in the format. Chainwhirler makes playing one-toughness creatures an opportunity to get blown out—especially given how prevalent it is right now.
If Goblin Chainwhirler were to be banned, or the RB Aggro archetype were to fall to Tier 2 status, then we might see BW Vampires turn into a competitive archetype, but that’s a big if. Currently the best “life gain” strategy in Standard uses Aetherflux Reservoir, which serves as both the life gain and a difficult-to-answer win condition.
This card does provide useful abilities for any sort of control deck (destroying problematic permanents) and a continual source of lifegain (up to 8 per turn round), so I wouldn’t write it off yet. This is a card I’d keep my eye on, especially if Orzhov is included in Guilds of Ravnica.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vraska, Relic Seeker

Vraska is definitely a powerful planeswalker with good potential. At different times she has been as high as $15, and has since fallen to around $7-$8. She protects herself, has a very powerful ultimate, and creates threats.
While we do have a Tier 1 Golgari archetype it’s far more on the mono-green spectrum than the actual Golgari spectrum (playing just a few black sources for removal options). She also suffers from being a six-drop in a format dominated by hyper-fast aggro that can easily kill before turn six, and powerful control decks that typically run multiple counterspells.
There is some decent support for this card. We have enough mana dorks in the format to help ramp her out quicker, and black is a solid splash color at the moment thanks to Cast Down and Vraska's Contempt. If RB Aggro slows down enough at rotation (and it does lose Hazoret the Fervent, Soul-Scar Mage, Ahn-Crop Crasher, and Bomat Courier), then the door might be open for a GBx deck in Standard. In such an archetype Vraska is a very likely inclusion.
I don’t think this card has been misevaluated, however, the current metagame is not friendly to it. Both of the main Tier 1 decks will lose a significant number of cards at rotation; I think this is definitely a card that is undervalued.

Conclusion

I find it’s very important to discuss my methods and reasoning behind determining a card’s valuation, specifically when looking for undervalued cards. I have covered Ixalan this week and will be covering the remaining sets in my next few articles.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #7

Posted on August 23, 2018August 28, 2018 by Edward Eng

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Standard is at its tail end before rotation in October, so we didn’t see too much new stuff at either Grand Prix Los Angeles or Grand Prix Providence this past weekend. However, there were a few nice things to take away from the SCG Team Constructed tourney in Dallas featuring Modern and Legacy. And never forget to dig around Magic Online results to find some nuggets.

In my last article I pointed out a couple of Pauper cards, and Kyle Rusciano asked me if Pauper is still growing in paper. I can’t quite say for sure whether or not it is, but I still see a lot of results posted on Magic Online. So while Pauper may be played casually, my approach to the format will be through the lens of competitive tournament demand and playability.

As always, my goal for this series is to cover the following two categories of cards:

Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Hold ‘Em

Delver of Secrets - Innistrad (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Delver of Secrets

This is one of the most played cards in Pauper as it shows up in UR Aggro and Mono-Blue.

Look at the total numbers for UR Aggro and Mono-Blue decks; that’s a lot! And these consistently put up good results. Take a look at Raptor56’s UR Aggro deck.

Pauper: UR Aggro by Raptor56

Creatures

4 Augur of Bolas

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Faerie Miscreant

4 Ninja of the Deep Hours

4 Spellstutter Sprite

Non-Creature Spells

1 Brainstorm

4 Counterspell

3 Gush

3 Lightning Bolt

3 Ponder

4 Preordain

4 Skred

Lands

3 Ash Barrens

4 Evolving Wilds

9 Snow-Covered Island

2 Snow-Covered Mountain

Sideboard

1 Echoing Truth

2 Electrickery

2 Gorilla Shaman

3 Hydroblast

3 Pyroblast

2 Stormbound Geist

2 Swirling Sandstorm

And here’s Mezzel’s 1st place Mono-Blue deck from August 19.

Pauper: Mono-Blue by Mezzel

Creatures

2 Augur of Bolas

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Faerie Miscreant

4 Ninja of the Deep Hours

4 Spellstutter Sprite

Non-Creature Spells

4 Ponder

4 Preordain

4 Counterspell

3 Daze

2 Gush

3 Mutagenic Growth

4 Snap

Lands

18 Island

Sideboard

3 Annul

2 Boomerang

1 Dispel

4 Gut Shot

4 Hydroblast

1 Piracy Charm

But the most interesting thing about Delver of Secrets is that it hasn’t faded into oblivion in Legacy since the banning of Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe. Surprisingly, Grixis Delver is still pretty good. But more importantly, UB Shadow has proven to be more than just a flash in the pan, as we saw David Thomas win the SCG Team Constructed tournament in Dallas with the deck.

Legacy: UB Shadow by David Thomas

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow

4 Delver of Secrets

2 Gurmag Angler

4 Street Wraith

Non-Creature Spells

4 Brainstorm

4 Daze

1 Dismember

2 Fatal Push

4 Force of Will

1 Snuff Out

2 Stubborn Denial

3 Ponder

1 Preordain

2 Reanimate

4 Thoughtseize

Lands

2 Flooded Strand

2 Marsh Flats

1 Misty Rainforest

2 Polluted Delta

2 Scalding Tarn

2 Underground Sea

4 Wasteland

3 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Engineered Explosives

1 Nihil Spellbomb

2 Throne of Geth

3 Dread of Night

1 Diabolic Edict

3 Surgical Extraction

2 Liliana, the Last Hope

2 Hymn to Tourach

Foil Delvers use to be $15-20 and now they’re about $7-8 on TCGplayer. If you want to play with them, this is a good time to pick them up as they will probably start a slow upward climb again.

Prophetic Prism - Masters 25 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prophetic Prism

This is even more heavily played in Pauper than Delver of Secrets. Take a look at this list.

And that’s because it’s played in all of these decks:

Prism used to see play in earlier iterations of Ironworks Combo decks, which Eric Froelich wrote about a while back on Channel Fireball. The card definitely still has potential, even though you don’t see any Modern decks listed.

You can still get foil copies on TCGplayer for about $.50 each.

Gaddock Teeg - Judge Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaddock Teeg

David Schumann recently talked about utilizing the market prices on MTG Stocks. This is a wise piece of advice. If you look at some of my past articles, you’ll see that I often selected the market price and market foil price options before I took the screenshots.

If you take a close look at the Judge Promo version of Gaddock Teeg, you’ll see that the market foil price has been steadily rising. Again, this just another promo that will continue to rise in value over the years.

This sees the most play in Modern via Bogles and Humans. Humans is currently the most-played deck in the format, and also one of the best. Teeg also sees play as a one- or two-of in Maverick and Aggro Loam in Legacy. So even if you pick these up now, you probably won’t have a tough time getting rid of them if you decide you don’t want them anymore in the future.

These start at around $55 on TCGplayer and there aren’t too many left. And they’re sold out on Card Kingdom, SCG, and Channel Fireball.

Fold ‘Em

Hardened Scales - Khans of Tarkir (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hardened Scales

Modular Affinity has been gaining some steam in Modern lately. But I would definitely sell into the hype. A friend of mine asked me about Hardened Scales, and I almost immediately said it was a "fold." It doesn’t go in any other decks right now since it’s a pretty narrow card. Plus, a metric ton of Khans was opened owning to the reprinting of fetchlands.

Modern: Modular Affinity by Brad Nelson

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager

4 Arcbound Worker

4 Hangarback Walker

1 Sparring Construct

4 Steel Overseer

4 Walking Ballista

Non-Creature Spells

1 Animation Module

2 Throne of Geth

3 Welding Jar

4 Hardened Scales

1 Apostle's Blessing

4 Mox Opal

4 Ancient Stirrings

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel

6 Forest

2 Blinkmoth Nexus

2 Horizon Canopy

4 Inkmoth Nexus

1 Phyrexia's Core

1 Pendelhaven

Sideboard

2 Animation Module

4 Damping Sphere

2 Dismember

1 Natural State

4 Nature's Claim

2 Surgical Extraction

Card Kingdom has pretty good cash and credit buylist prices right now. If you have these and you don’t want or need them, dump them now.

Recent Buys

Opt - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Opt

I listed Opt as a "hold" in the last article. And I ended up buying a playset for $3.25 each on August 15. But I hesitated and paid a couple dollars more for the set. This is a good lesson...if you see a good deal, jump on it.

FEJK just placed 1st with UW Control and four Opts in August 18’s Modern Challenge.

Modern: UW Control by FEJK

Creatures

2 Snapcaster Mage

2 Vendilion Clique

Non-Creature Spells

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

2 Ancestral Vision

1 Supreme Verdict

4 Terminus

1 Condemn

3 Cryptic Command

1 Logic Knot

1 Mana Leak

2 Negate

4 Opt

4 Path to Exile

2 Detention Sphere

1 Search for Azcanta

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Field of Ruin

4 Flooded Strand

1 Ghost Quarter

2 Glacial Fortress

2 Hallowed Fountain

6 Island

2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Ancestral Vision

1 Negate

1 Baneslayer Angel

1 Celestial Purge

2 Dispel

1 Lyra Dawnbringer

3 Rest in Peace

1 Spell Queller

2 Stony Silence

1 Surgical Extraction

1 Timely Reinforcements

Wispmare - Lorwyn (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wispmare

This is going to be a key sideboard card in Bridgevine moving forward, as it deals with troublesome cards like Rest in Peace and Leyline of the Void. Plus, it helps trigger Vengevine. Take a look at Joe Stempo’s list from the SCG Dallas Team Constructed.

Modern: Bridgevine by Joe Stempo

Creatures

3 Hangarback Walker

4 Walking Ballista

3 Bloodghast

4 Goblin Bushwhacker

4 Gravecrawler

3 Greater Gargadon

4 Insolent Neonate

4 Stitcher's Supplier

4 Vengevine

2 Viscera Seer

Non-Creature Spells

4 Bridge from Below

4 Faithless Looting

Lands

1 Mountain

4 Arid Mesa

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Blood Crypt

4 Bloodstained Mire

1 Godless Shrine

1 Sacred Foundry

Sideboard

2 Ingot Chewer

4 Wispmare

4 Leyline of the Void

1 Collective Brutality

4 Thoughtseize

I got a playset from Card Kingdom at $3 each on August 19—I couldn’t easily order the set on TCGplayer since there weren’t too many left.

Fourth Bridge Prowler - Aether Revolt (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fourth Bridge Prowler

This has been popping up a little bit more in Modern Humans. In case you didn’t notice, HP_ lost to FEJK in the finals of the Modern Challenge on August 18 with two copies of Fourth Bridge Prowler in the sideboard.

Modern: Humans by HP_

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish

4 Kitesail Freebooter

4 Mantis Rider

4 Meddling Mage

2 Militia Bugler

4 Noble Hierarch

4 Phantasmal Image

4 Reflector Mage

3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

4 Thalia's Lieutenant

Non-Creature Spells

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat

4 Cavern of Souls

4 Horizon Canopy

1 Island

1 Plains

1 Seachrome Coast

4 Unclaimed Territory

Sideboard

2 Militia Bugler

2 Auriok Champion

1 Damping Sphere

1 Dismember

2 Fourth Bridge Prowler

1 Grafdigger's Cage

2 Izzet Staticaster

2 Kataki, War's Wage

2 Sin Collector

I bought twelve of these at $.50 each on TCGplayer on August 20. This card is pretty good against aggressive strategies like Affinity and opposing Phantasmal Images, especially because it only costs one mana to cast.

Summary

Hold ‘Em

Delver of Secrets - Innistrad (Foil)
Prophetic Prism - Masters 25 (Foil)
Gaddock Teeg - Judge Promos

Fold ‘Em

Hardened Scales - Khans of Tarkir (Non-Foil & Foil)

Recent Buys

Opt - FNM Promos
Wispmare - Lorwyn (Foil)
Fourth Bridge Prowler - Aether Revolt (Foil)

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Video Series with Ryland: Hardened Scales Affinity

Posted on August 23, 2018 by Ryland Taliaferro

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Affinity in Modern has been in a sort of lull lately. Little improvements have been made to the archetype as the format has become increasingly more hostile to it. Even when Affinity itself is not a significant threat, people will always be prepared to deal with whatever boon the deck may offer. There are enough relevant artifact-based archetypes (largely thanks to Ancient Stirrings) that artifact hate will always be present and plentiful in sideboards. These combined factors have caused us to see less and less Affinity in recent months—as usual though, Affinity finds a way to persist.

Hardened Scales Affinity isn't a completely new archetype; it's been around for a while now. From memory and what little tidbits I could find, it appears to have garnered more attention in early 2017. That said, it never really gained steam as a real contender and it seems like for the most part no one really considered it as good or better than traditional Affinity. Fast forward to the MOCS playoff on August 11th—three copies of Hardened Scales Affinity went 7-0 after what felt like a multiple-month drought for Affinity at large. So what changed?

Well... maybe nothing. It's possible that this could just be a flash in the pan. Yes, two Pro Tour 25th Anniversary contenders did opt to play this variant of Affinity, which likely brought some extra attention to the archetype, and this strong showing in the MOCS playoff is a good sign. But by no means do we have enough representation to say with any certainty that Hardened Scales is here to stay.

However, I do think it shows some promise. With the format being so hostile towards artifact-based strategies, having access to Nature's Claim and Natural State is a big deal. Traditional Affinity has found ways around Stony Silence before, generally in the form of non-artifact based threats like Ghirapur Aether Grid. Being able to actually answer Stony Silence efficiently, however, is an entirely different ball game.

Both variants of Affinity can have some very fast kills, but it seems like the combo-oriented Scales list goes all-in slightly more often and slightly earlier than its traditional counterpart. I'll have to test the list some more before I can make that statement with a bit more certainty, but at a minimum it has some very incredible and explosive early kills. Arcbound Ravager gaining an extra counter when it enters, whenever it sacrifices something, and when its modular trigger resolves is nothing short of nutty.

I'm interested to see what happens with this archetype in the long run. I'm tempted to say that it will stick around, but my confidence in that evaluation is too low for me to make a commitment. In the short term, I'm sure its MOCS performance will boost the archetype's player-base and general attention it receives, which may lead to even more finely tuned and powerful lists.

I hope you enjoy the matches as usual, and I'm interested to hear what kind of content you'd like to see moving forward so I can continue to evolve and improve my videos. Let me know what you would like to see! If you want similar content, check out my Twitch channel for some more live Modern.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL261kJ_cAQC_2mzNsXKObokqTB3PF1t8_]

Hardened Scales Affinity by BERNASTORRES

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager

4 Arcbound Worker

4 Hangarback Walker

1 Sparring Construct

4 Steel Overseer

4 Walking Ballista

Artifacts

1 Animation Module

4 Mox Opal

2 Throne of Geth

3 Welding Jar

Enchantments

4 Hardened Scales

Instants

1 Apostle's Blessing

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings

Lands

2 Blinkmoth Nexus

4 Darksteel Citadel

6 Forest

2 Horizon Canopy

4 Inkmoth Nexus

1 Pendelhaven

1 Phyrexia's Core

Sideboard

2 Animation Module

3 Damping Sphere

2 Dismember

1 Natural State

4 Nature's Claim

1 Pithing Needle

2 Surgical Extraction

Daily Stock Watch – Groundbreaker

Posted on August 23, 2018 by Jamie Robertson San Juan

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Hello, everyone and welcome to another edition of the Daily Stock Watch! The ball continues to roll on today's segment as I'm going to talk about a card that I didn't really think would be seriously worth a second look when it first spiked, and I'm was caught off-guard when it went a notch higher this week. The card today is a component of "8-Ball" which is another Collected Company variant in Modern which appeals more to the casual crowd than the competitive one in my opinion.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Groundbreaker

I thought this card was a fad when it first spiked to $4 some time last week but apparently, any crazy idea in Modern is enough to merit a price spike for key pieces of the new "hot" deck. I don't actually see any successful lists of the deck around but what we could clearly see are buyouts of this card across big online shops and that's what has been causing the price surge. However, these spikes aren't manipulated by random buyouts alone as there could be some decent interest in the deck that somehow looks appealing on paper.

8 Ball

Creatures

3 Strangleroot Geist

4 Ball Lightning

4 Primal Forcemage

4 Hellspark Elemental

4 Hell's Thunder

4 Groundbreaker

4 Bloodbraid Elf

4 Birds of Paradise

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Collected Company

Lands

1 Mountain

2 Fire-Lit Thicket

3 Windswept Heath

3 Forest

4 Copperline Gorge

4 Wooded Foothills

4 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

3 Wild Defiance

2 Reclamation Sage

2 Kitchen Finks

3 Defense Grid

1 Choke

3 Anger of the Gods

1 Ancient Grudge

It's actually a deck with a gung-ho approach that's combat-based where you could see Groundbreaker working side-by-side with Ball Lightning. Just imagine having a Primal Forcemage in play on turn turn two (assuming you have a turn one Birds of Paradise that survived) and a Collected Company on turn three that nets you those two ball breakers that smashes in for 18 damage or tramples its way to get your opponent in the red zone. Heck, even a Bloodbraid Elf on turn three on the same board state that cascades into one of the two 6/1 critters could hit hard if left unblocked and unscathed. It's all fun and painful if it does something like that in that order on a consistent basis but Modern is too diverse for your BoP to even survive turn one without eating a removal. It looks more about fun and games or what is collectively known as casual gaming for me.

Rushing In

For good time's sake, this Red Green aggro variant is something that could remind us of how decks back in the day steal games from unsuspecting opponents. Sure, it could probably win game one just by sheer funkiness and card synergy in the correct environment but it's definitely not something that you would want to sleeve up in a tournament. Would you be interested in buying an $8.04 three-drop , green creature that disappears from play after your turn? The answer is probably a lot of people will and that's how you could earn off this cute little spike from it. Better start moving your copies around before it gets reprinted somewhere else down the road. I wouldn't even be buying this for $5 unless someone wins a tournament using it. Take advantage of situations like this very well most especially if you could maximize profit out of it. I'm quite sure you guys might have a bunch of this somewhere in your Planar Chaos bulk bin.

At the moment, Groundbreaker is out of stock at StarCityGames and ChannelFireball, while there's still a lonesome copy sitting at Card Kingdom's inventory as we speak. TCGPlayer vendors is your best bet at the moment if you want to go on a nostalgia ride and wreck your way to victory as there are still lots of vendors selling them for $2.05 up to $10.97 based on condition there. Foil copies are at $25 and above and is something that I wouldn't even bother touching. Buy at your own risk but sell at will if you ask me. I'm not hating on the card but it's just not that sensible enough for me to merit such a price tag in the long run.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Rotating Standard into Commander Riches

Posted on August 22, 2018August 22, 2018 by Christopher Martin

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Hello, again!

We are a little over 6 weeks away from another Standard rotation (10/5/2018), so there is no better time to start looking at the best EDH targets from the rotating sets than now!

Although most of the cards I plan to discuss for EDH purposes do not see competitive Standard play, their supply should still increase some as Standard players rotate into store credit, future Standard staples (e.g., Teferi, Hero of Dominaria), or preorders for Guilds of Ravnica.

As peak supply is reached, prices will slide and the fruits will be ripe for the picking. Let's dive in!

Amonkhet

There was an error retrieving a chart for As Foretold

Throne of Geth was all over the place during Pro Tour weekend earlier in the month as new tech to cast around Chalice of the Void which of course got me thinking about cards that Throne of Geth might also benefit. It dawned on me that As Foretold interacts beautifully with both cards:

You can cast cards through your Chalice as long as Chalice isn't on zero
You can ramp your As Foretold two counters a turn with Throne of Geth

In theory, with some support from cards like Gitaxian Probe and Thoughtseize, plus Void Winnower off of a ramped As Foretold, you could lock your opponents out completely.

Additionally, and more importantly, As Foretold is absolutely silly in Commander. As a game progresses, As Foretold operates similarly to the way an Aether Vial does in Modern in that you simply outrun your opponents because of the free spell each turn. The kicker on this card, and I suspect it goes somewhat unnoticed, is that you can cast a spell once each turn, meaning you can play instants and flash creatures on your opponents turns as well.

Investment Plan

Between being mythic, having cross-format potential, and currently being at its lowest price since November 2017 (and still dropping some) I find this to be a perfect time to beginning acquiring a position in foils and/or non-foils. I view this as a $30+ card in six months, especially if it reaches its potential in another format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anointed Procession

Anointed Procession is a card I absolutely love. The card it brings to my mind is Doubling Season (which has multiple reprints yet maintains a $40+ price tag). While it only does one-half of what Doubling Season does, the tokens-matter strategy continues to gain momentum with each passing set in Commander (the support for it in 2018 has been otherworldly).

Don't get me wrong, this isn't to say Anointed Procession should be worth half of Doubling Season; but, with Najeela, the Blade-Blossom becoming a popular Commander over the summer and Anointed Procession already being in over 6,500 decks according to EDHREC, it stands to grow sizably in the long run.

Investment Plan

I believe non-foils (and possibly foils) should continue to decrease in value as players trade them in. It is important to remember this card is still fringe-playable in Standard, therefore it could take until October to see a real drop. I am targeting non-foils around $3 and foils around $8. The maturity for this card should only take six months or so before supply dries up (assuming no reprint).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Manglehorn

Amonkhet is full of great Commander cards, but none are greater than Manglehorn. This card is the cousin to Reclamation Sage except it sees a ton of play in Vintage instead of Modern. This bodes extremely well for foils long-term, and thus, I immediately grabbed as many as I could find under $1.50.

Investment Plan

I recommend foils immediately as these are going to be harder and harder to come by once the Vintage appeal is realized. I also suggest non-foils, too, as a wonderful penny stock to add to the portfolio. If this dodges a reprint in 2019, it will easily ascend to a $2 or $3 uncommon and $10+ foil.

Hour of Devastation

There was an error retrieving a chart for Overwhelming Splendor

Yes, Overwhelming Splendor is expensive to cast, but in a world where everyone cheats expensive game breakers onto the battlefield, this card is a superstar. Also, Estrid, the Masked just became a thing and Overwhelming Splendor is the type of card Estrid players can use to break games wide-open.

Investment Plan

I see this being a big gainer once more EDH players realize its potency in Estrid, the Masked decks, and thus I feel like this is a great one to add to your watch list between now and October 5th. I also do not anticipate a ton of supply from rotation on this one, meaning the plateau might already be upon us. I like foils under $4 given the mythic rarity and EDH appeal.

Aether Revolt

There was an error retrieving a chart for Planar Bridge

Only one card really stood out to me from Aether Revolt and that is Planar Bridge. Planar Bridge probably does not make the cut in the competitive 100, but for casuals, this is a fantastic way to cheat anything onto the battlefield. The market price on this one has slowly been creeping up over the past four months, and I believe it is in large part due to Saheeli, the Gifted being spoiled. Planar Bridge has already found its way into 4,500 decks according to EDHREC, and that number should continue to grow as more Saheeli data becomes available.

Investment Plan

Planar Bridge has a Masterpiece printing which is currently sitting at an 11x multiple of its pack foil. This feels unsustainable given the support it sees in Commander. As a result, I love pack foils in the near-term and grabbed two under $5 during research for this article. Non-foils are also interesting if you can find copies for $2 or less.

Kaladesh

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rashmi, Eternities Crafter

I am unsure how Rashmi, Eternities Crafter non-foils are still sitting near bulk status. This is one of the better cards for Commander purposes in all of Kaladesh, yet its usage rate is only around 5,000 decks. The sheer amount of card advantage Rashmi, Eternities Crafter provides, especially in creature decks, is hard to beat.

She pairs well with cards mentioned earlier in this article: As Foretold and Aether Vial, and I also imagine she will be an auto-include for Estrid, the Masked players moving forward. Finally, remember that Ravnica Allegiance will feature the Simic guild, so it is entirely possible she finds a new home if a new Simic commander is introduced.

Investment Plan

I will be picking up Rashmi, Eternities Crafter non-foil copies for bulk and foil copies under $6 wherever I can. I anticipate this card has huge upside long-term, especially with the prospect of Simic being featured in 2019.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Padeem, Consul of Innovation

Padeem, Consul of Innovation is an interesting paradox from my research. Out of all the cards I have discussed in this article, Padeem, Consul of Innovation is in the second most decks (behind only Anointed Procession) according to EDHREC. Yet, the card itself is still a bulk rare.

This highlights a few things for us:

The power of Inventions vs. Invocations on their respective print runs
The popularity of Kaladesh as a set in general
The opportunities that are always present in bulk rare bins!

Padeem, Consul of Innovation should be the biggest percentage gainer in the next three to six months, as players will realize the EDH potential for artifact strategies. Anything that gives all artifacts hexproof is good enough for me to invest in, and the potential for card advantage is just gravy.

Investment Plan

Rotational supply will have minimal impact on Padeem, Consul of Innovation given it is already bulk status, so avoid non-foils until the existing supply glut clears. The real play here is the pack foil. Copies are still under $2 and should see significant appreciation over time, so long as Padeem does not reappear as a character in future storylines (i.e., he dodges a reprint).

You can find discussion on my picks (and other MTG finance tips) weekly by following me on Twitter (@ChiStyleGaming). Additionally, you can hear about all of these specs in advance of my articles being posted by becoming a QS Insider and joining the discussion on the QS Discord channel! Thanks for reading!

What Should I Do With This Huge Collection I Just Bought?

Posted on August 21, 2018August 21, 2018 by Adam Yurchick

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One of the fastest—but certainly not the easiest—ways to get into the business of Magic cards is to buy someone else's collection with the intention of selling it for profit. I bought a collection the other day, and I joked to the seller that I was buying a lot of time spent sorting through cards. Turning a mass of cards into cash, or even other cardboard, doesn’t happen immediately. It requires developing a plan for extracting the most value, while considering the time that it will take to do so.

It’s possible to get every last penny out of a collection, but that will require a lot of time, and there are diminishing returns to the time invested as the value of the remaining cards decreases as pieces are sold. On one extreme, you could buy a collection and sell it untouched to another buyer for a small profit. On the other, you could eek out full value by meticulously sorting and selling the cards for full value without regard for time.

A sensible approach lies somewhere in between. Even the quick-flipper would be well-served to give the collection a once-over for any gems, and the value-maximizer has to draw the line eventually and accept that some cards are true bulk. Within these limits lies much opportunity for creativity, as well as for quality best practices and organization to shine and show their value. The best methods will be different for everyone depending on their situation, and may vary based on the specifics of the collection.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon's Hoard

How to best approach the collection I bought last week is a pressing topic for me, and one I had a lot of time to think about as I drove home with my car filled to the brim with cardboard. I know a well-laid and executed plan will bring me the best results. Today I want to share what’s going through my head as I approach the collection and how I plan to process it to extract value.

Set Binders

I purchased my collection from someone who acquired it from an old shop. A large portion of the collection is sorted into binders by set, and by set number within. This is very convenient for buylisting online, which requires sorting cards by set, so it will speed up what can otherwise be a very time-intensive process.

Buylisting is my first choice for offloading a great deal of my cards. Partly because of the speed, and partly because of the opportunity to trade into other cards, which, depending on prices, might be the best route for some cards. Trade-in bonuses often tip the scales towards making trading a better option if you want to preserve the most value. Trading-up into a higher-end card to sell instead can be a great way to consolidate cards and convert to cash relatively quickly without losing value, and maybe even gaining it.

My aim is to buylist as much of the collection as possible, because it’s comprised of lower-end cards and stripped of the most high-dollar cards that I’d likely be better off selling on my own. The collection being sorted into binders will also make my buylisting process very easy and save time, which is a factor pushing me towards buylisting. I’ll also save a ton of time that I usually spend searching for individual cards when buylisting, because I can pull up the buylist for the set and quickly go down the list inputting each card.

This definitely shows the value of having cards sorted by set, and further by set number. In some cases it might be worthwhile to invest time sorting cards like this before buylisting, and it could even make sense to hire out some sorting work if it’s applicable to your situation.

$5-$8 Cards - The Cream of the Bulk Crop

Part of the collection is a small stack of cards that were pulled out by the owner and were said to be worth between $5 and $8. These are ripe for buylisting, and in fact I used the pictures of them that the owner shared before I bought the collection to help me calculate that the buy was a good deal. This is value that was essentially picked for me, and will be among the first cards I’ll sell. I'll add to it with the cards I pick from bulk through my own sorting.

Bulk Rares

The collection contains a few thousand bulk rares, which is a bread-and-butter way for me to make some value. Going through the stack and pulling out anything that obviously shouldn’t be there is a good start. By then, meticulously going through the stacking and buylisting the cards is sure to reveal cards that sell for more than bulk rares should—perhaps just double, but it will quickly add up.

This is a situation where the time invested is going to be worth the fine-comb approach, and it’s also a perfect opportunity for me to break out my camera and Quiet Speculation’s Ion Scanner and use the technology to help me find the top price for each card.

Commons/Uncommons

Some of the collection is sorted into bulk commons and uncommons, which essentially offer the same opportunity as the bulk rares, just with less money on the table and a lot more chaff. For these cards using such a fine-toothed approach is a waste of time, and instead I’ll be served by going through and using my judgment to pull above-bulk cards I can buylist for a profit.

Everything else I can resell as true bulk, but lately because of Pauper and the general market it seems like commons are more valuable than ever. I’d be better served by just holding my bulk in case something spikes, but eventually I’ll have to give in to space concerns.

The Unsorted Rest

Another portion of the collection, and what makes up much of most collections, is boxes and binders of random cards with varying degrees of sorting or order, if any at all. These cards I’ll go through just like the bulk, but with the added process of sorting them into the previous bulk categories. These are the most fun cards to look through, since it seems anything is possible, and may be the most financially rewarding, but also the most work.

Smoke-Damaged Cards

Part of the collection I was not aware of, or rather something that wasn’t part of the collection but that was thrown in, was a tub of cards I was told smelled of smoke, which I could already tell as I stood near them. Cigarette smoke is known to leave a smelly residue on cards, and it can leave them in what’s considered damaged condition.

Buylists specifically mention smoke-damaged cards as those they are not interested in, so these cards I’ll have to approach differently. One option is to try to remove the smell. I have read this is possible with ozone machines, which probably isn’t practical for me in this case, or with baking soda, which could be an option if I open some valuable cards.

My plan is to approach these cards separately, look for anything of value and deal with it accordingly, and then offload the rest at a discount to someone else.

How do you process your collection buys?

-Adam

Daily Stock Watch – Temporal Mastery

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Jamie Robertson San Juan

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Hello, readers and welcome to a new week of the Daily Stock Watch! It's interesting to note that price of Modern staples has increased by 26% this year alone and it's quite possible that we're looking at a 35% clip by the end of it. Today's featured card is another one of those Modern gainers, having seen its last reprint back in Modern Masters 2017 which could mean that its next appearance is in another Masters set in the not so near future.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temporal Mastery

This card was sitting at a decent $9 a week ago and did surprise a few eyebrows by hitting its all-time high of $21.49 just a few days back. It's not really a part of any tier one decks as of writing as the Miracles deck has yet to incorporate it into their list or even as a part of its sideboard plan. This probably has something to do with the popularity of Nexus of Fate in hopes that someone would break an unlimited turns deck in Modern. But then again, it's also possible that it's all about the buyouts that occurred across all big sites when someone decided that it's time to tank and remove every other cheap copies out there to raise its value.

Bargain Cards and Time Walking

Ever since I started playing BR Bridgevine, my love for unfair decks that try to win out of nowhere has suddenly increased. Temporal Mastery is no Nexus of Fate in a dragging game, power-wise, but it is no slouch either in decks that could take advantage of that extra turn to win via combat (something we have tried before during AVR days with an RUG variant) . The only drawback I see from playing this card is its inability to be abused like how Nexus of Fate is being utilized in Standard right now because ideally, playing with a card that gives you an extra turn should help you net lands or generate enough resources to find a means to create more board advantage. This is where Nexus of Fate shines as a build around card as opposed to Temporal Mastery, but there's no denying that a Time walk effect for two mana in a format that's not called Vintage is just too good to be abused. For this particular reason, Temporal Mastery has never gone beyond broken and will always be a strong card to draw at any point of the game in the right deck.

Masters Mythics That Made Us Scratch Our Heads

Before this spike, Temporal Mastery was easily one of the cards that we could have included in the list above as mythics that we don't actually want a reprint of for a Masters set. It's also worth noting that I only highlighted cards from the Modern Masters series and that there are other busts in the other special sets (Tree of Redemption probably just beat Comet Storm as the worst ever) so I'm not quite sure why we should be buying in to the hype of this card. If you know something that we don't about any tech that's abusing the power of this card, the comments section is open for your response. I'll firmly take my stand for now that selling this card is a must if you have multiples while the price is high.

At the moment, major online stores such as Card Kingdom, StarCityGames, and ChannelFireball are out of stock of both AVR and MM3 copies of this card both foil and non-foil. TCGPlayer still has vendors that's selling them for $18 and above for near mint normal copies. If you're someone who needs this in their deck, I'm hoping that you were able to acquire it for its previous price before this spike occurred. Otherwise, I could firmly suggest that you wait for a while for this to settle down back to $10-$13 range once stores are back up with supplies. If you're someone who made this a spec target, now's the time to cash out as $15 for this card is just too much in my opinion. There are always better options to use that has the same effect and we'll never know when this could be due for a reprint. After all, WotC has a knack for doing it for mythics in Masters sets.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Return to the PPTQ Grind: Week 3

Posted on August 21, 2018 by David Ernenwein

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And now, back to the grind. I skipped last week due to the travel distance involved, but I wasn't about to miss this week. That said, I want to call out that both PPTQ's last week were at stores that I didn't know existed, and one was in a town that as far as I know has never had a game shop that ran competitive REL tournaments before. As far as I'm concerned, new stores in new markets running premier events is a strong indicator of Magic's growth and success. I just wish it was happening within a reasonable driving distance.

Another Banned and Restricted Announcement has come and gone with no changes for Modern. I'm not surprised; none of the supposedly broken decks have shown they need to be dealt with yet, and the metagame looks pretty healthy. We've also had one set of unbannings this year, and Wizards hasn't done more than one per year (usually only once every two years). Adjust expectations accordingly.

The Deck

I took my own advice from Week 2 and didn't wait until I was at the venue to decide on my deck. I'd put more time into Spirits than any other deck and was very confidant in my build. Jeskai and Storm have continued to be fine decks, but given what I've seen of the PPTQ fields and my own play at this point, it will take a very warped or hostile metagame for me to shift off Spirits.

UW Spirits, David Ernenwein (PPTQ Deck, Semifinals)

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer

4 Rattlechains

4 Selfless Spirit

4 Supreme Phantom

2 Remorseful Cleric

2 Phantasmal Image

4 Spell Queller

4 Drogskol Captain

2 Militia Bugler

1 Reflector Mage

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Flooded Strand

4 Seachrome Coast

3 Cavern of Souls

3 Hallowed Fountain

3 Ghost Quarter

2 Plains

1 Island

1 Moorland Haunt

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence

3 Negate

2 Rest in Peace

2 Eidolon of Rhetoric

2 Settle the Wreckage

1 Leonin Relic-Warder

1 Worship

1 Blessed Alliance

I'm a bit frustrated by Ghost Quarter. I've had a lot of situations where it won me the game and very few where Mutavault would have been better. I've never needed the additional attacker against control, nor would Mutavault have been useful in creature matchups; on the other hand, Quarter has been key to beating Tron, an otherwise difficult matchup. However, I really wish I didn't run either. Having so many colorless lands really hurts, and I've had to Quarter my Quarter a lot to actually cast my spells. My older Spirits decks ran Faerie Conclave for that reason. I'm not prepared to swap lands just yet because I really need Quarter, but I really wish there was a colored alternative.

The Tournament

This PPTQ was held at the shop where I finished last season, and I was a bit down on going. I have never done very well at any tournament I've participated in at that shop, from FNM-level up to PPTQ's. I don't believe in curses, but once is misfortune, twice is coincidence, three is a pattern, and more than four consecutive below typical performances is statistically improbable. I wasn't expecting to do well as a result, but I'm also committed to attending as many Modern PPTQ's as possible, so I went.

The shop was packed, with 59 players for six rounds of Swiss. This is not especially surprising considering that this was the only PPTQ in the state this weekend, but the shop needed to find extra tables to fit us in. As often happens, the shop underestimated the need for judges, so the shop owner had to judge as well. It never happens, but I wonder what an event with too many judges might be like.

This logistical problem contributed to the event running very long, but wasn't the main culprit. That "honor" goes to the control matchups that ran to time and then took 10-15 minutes to play extra turns almost every round. In each case, one of them had the game stabilized, but couldn't close it out (either by failing of deck or pilot).

I arrived early to really scout the field. There were a lot of players that play a number of decks there, so recognition didn't help. Not many were playing test games, and it's not socially acceptable to read their deck registration sheets over their shoulder, so I really didn't have a read on the room. I did see a few Humans decks and Eldrazi players, but that wasn't enough to influence my deck choice. Even then, Spirits would have been the choice for its Humans and Eldrazi matchups, while Jeskai is poor against Eldrazi.

It worked out perfectly, and I cruised to 4-1-1 in Swiss before losing in the semifinals to Mardu Pyromancer. The field turned out to be very favorable for me, the most popular decks being various flavors of control, Humans, and Spirits decks. Interestingly, I saw more UW than Bant, though again that may be personal taste. I beat three Humans decks and Eldrazi Stompy, and lost to Mono-Green Tron during the Swiss.

What Happened

I used to think Humans was a fairly even matchup, but I haven't dropped a match in weeks. Spirits and Humans are very similar as disruptive creature decks, but Spirits has a number of advantages. Everything flies, so Spirits can block but not be blocked most of the time, which is a huge edge in combat.

The bigger edge is in sideboarding. Thanks to its manabase, the best Humans can muster is Izzet Staticaster, and in my experience if Staticaster is impactful, Spirits wasn't winning that game anyway. Spirits has actual mana for instants and sorceries and can play sweepers. Generally, Spirits's best draws are worse than Humans's, but its average draws are better.

Rounds 1 and 4 were against Humans, and played out the same way: each game I deployed an airforce, my opponent couldn't go big, and I won the race. When Humans doesn't have a big Champion of the Parish or Thalia's Lieutenant, its creatures prove pretty anemic in the face of Supreme Phantom or Spell Queller. In game 2 of round 4, I was actually hit pretty low before stabilizing by Imaging his Reflector Mage, then getting lords down to kill in one attack.

Round 2 was against Eldrazi Stompy, and my opponent didn't have great draws. He had accelerants, including Gemstone Cavern game 1, but was only accelerating into Matter Reshapers. Vial and Rattlechains producing multiple Spirits beat him handil. I was surpriysed by Skysovereign, Consul Flagship game 1, but I had been sandbagging Paths, so it was just a very expensive removal spell.

Round 3 is my loss, to Tron. Game 1 is very bad, as I have no answer to her Ugin in the deck, and the game was never close in the first place. In game 2, she mulliganed twice and kept a no-land five because any land would have unlocked her cantrips. It didn't come. Game 3 saw me crushed by Oblivion Stone into Ugin.

Round 5 was Humans again, and game 1 went pretty much perfectly for him with an explosive opener. Game 2 is similar, but my hand is better, so I'm able to fight and chump block his massive Champion. This gives me time to topdeck Worship with two Drogskol Captains out. He had used his Reclamation Sage already to kill Vial, and ended up missing on Image. Game 3, his hand is not explosive and I easily win.

Because of the numerous unintentional draws during the Swiss, the Top 8 was not quite a clean break round six. However, I'm high enough at table three with good breakers so I can't be knocked out and choose to draw. Table two opted to play it out since the prize payout was incredibly top-heavy, which complicated the Top 8 considerably. I ended up at 7th seed.

Top 8

The Top 8 consisted of two Mardu Pyromancer decks, a shockland-wielding Humans deck, Infect, Ad Nauseam, Bant Spirits, my round 3 opponent, and myself. This meant that I would have to face my round 3 opponent in the quarterfinals. I joked that this was my chance for revenge, because we both knew that Tron is favored in this matchup. The joke wasn't funny for her, since I won in two games.

Game 1 we both mulliganed, but hers didn't provide any Ghost Quarter insurance, and I had Selfless Spirit for her Oblivion Stone. Game 2, she had Tron multiple times over, but nothing to cast besides Karn Liberated. I won despite a lackluster battlefield.

The semi's are against Mardu Pyromancer, and that's a tricky matchup. It's all about eking out card and mana advantage, and small mistakes or miscalculations have huge (and often disastrous) consequences. Of course, game 1 is a non-game as I mulligan into oblivion; game 2, my opponent is stuck on two lands with only three mana spells in hand. Game 3, I have an okay hand that doesn't line up well against his, but I think I made a number of poor choices in some exchanges that dismantled any chance I had. I don't know that I could have won the game, but I'm sure I should have lost when I did.

Lessons Learned

I really need to more carefully examine my plan against black attrition decks. The matchups aren't unfavored on paper, but actually playing them is very hard, and a single misstep can be fatal for either deck. There is definitely win percentage to come from the sideboard too, and I'm reevaluating my strategy. I had done minimal boarding, focusing on graveyard disruption for Vials as was always my plan with Merfolk; that isn't working for Spirits. Perhaps Eidolon of Rhetoric is good because my losses tend to come from multiple spell turns, but I've never tried it.

I also think I was keeping openers too easily. I kept a lot of mediocre hands that worked out, but in the Swiss against Tron and against Mardu, I couldn't muster enough pressure. Spirits doesn't mulligan well, and deliberately going down on resources seems dangerous, but it might be better than what I'm currently doing. I intend to mulligan more aggressively in future tests to see.

On the Deck

I was happy with the my deck's performance overall, though the flex slots didn't have a chance to shine. I didn't have matchups where Remorseful Cleric was important, and never saw Militia Bugler against Mardu. Reflector Mage was appreciated against Humans, though not as much as Image copying their Mage. This tournament didn't really give me useful data on my current configuration.

The same is true of the sideboard. Damping Sphere would have been a good card against Tron, but I don't think that's a reason to cut the Eidolon of Rhetoric, which is far more powerful against combo decks. Settle the Wreckage was a bit awkward since it cannot be used proactively, but the potential upside in all my Humans matchups was so high that I think I'm fine with that. Having more outs against Bogles or indestructible is also useful.

Keep Moving Forward

If nothing else, I'm glad I finally have a good result at that store. Next week is a double PPTQ weekend at my local shop and the store where from my pre-Vegas report, so I'm hoping for a win on home turf. Tune in then to see how it goes.

Rotation Finance – A Look Toward Guilds of Ravnica

Posted on August 20, 2018August 20, 2018 by Kyle Rusciano

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Welcome back, folks. Last week I discussed some of the repercussions of Standard's premier deck (Red Aggro) leaving the format, so if you missed it, go check it out. This week we're going to look ahead to Guilds of Ravnica to frame our discussion of rotation finance. What do we already know about that set that can help us predict what will happen to the value of Ixalan, Core 19, and Dominaria cards? A lot, it turns out!

I. "It's the Mana, Stupid."

Thus spoke James Carville. Standard is largely defined by its mana, and we have a very good grasp of what Standard mana bases will look like once Guilds of Ravnica drops. Staying are the Ixalan and Dominaria checklands, and on top of that, we'll get rare duals of the five guilds above. We don't know whether they'll be fast lands like the Ravnica shocklands or slow like the Theros temples, but even just knowing the colors tells us a lot about what Standard will look like.

Perhaps a visual picture will help.

Better Mana:                   Worse Mana:
Boros {WR}                         Simic {UG}
Selesnya {WG}                   Gruul {GR}
Golgari {GB}                       Azorius {UW}
Izzet {UR}                           Rakdos {BR}
Dimir {UB}                         Orzhov {WB}
-----------                            -------------
Naya {RGW}                      Temur {GUR}
Sultai {UGB}                     Esper {WUB}
Jeskai {URW}                   Mardu {BWR}
Abzan {GBW}                   Jund {GRB}
Grixis {UBR}                    Bant {UWG}

1. No, No, NO!

I know many people have been itching to play with some of these Ixalan tribes in Standard, especially Merfolk. While card quality will keep Pirate Tribal and Dinosaur Tribal from being competitive in Guilds of Ravnica Standard, mana quality will preclude Vampire Tribal and Merfolk Tribal from being playable until Ravnica Alliance is released in January. Merfolk, in particular, I expect to become Standard-playable once Ravnica Alliance is released, both because we'll get a rare Simic dual and because I think it likely we'll get a few rare and mythic rare Merfolk.

2. Yes, Yes, YES?

I know you're a good boi, but can you do it alone?

Grixis mana will be no worse in September than it is now, and that bodes well for Nicol Bolas. Less good for Nicol Bolas, however, is that most of its supporting cast is leaving. Roughly 70 percent of it, in fact.

My hunch is that Grixis Midrange is going to take a backseat for the time being, likely emerging as a tier-one deck once again as more and more cards become added to the Standard card pool. Honestly, looking at the rare and mythic threats in Grixis colors that will survive rotation, all of the good ones that fit in a midrange strategy cost four mana or more. If you don't believe me, check it out. This means I'll avoid speculating on Nicol Bolas for the time being. Currently sitting at $17.50, I think it's possible, if not likely, that it dips down into the $10.00 to $12.50 range, especially if the new rare duals are slow. Buy then, not now.

II. What Decks are Surviving Rotation?

How does Grixis Midrange's card retention rate compare to other top-tier decks? Let's take a look.

Red Aggro: 17%
Sai's Resevoir: 27%
Grixis Midrange: 30%
Green Stompy: 55%
UW Control: 60%
Bant Turbo: 73%

Keep this data in mind as you make speculatory investments over the next few weeks; Standard is going to change drastically after rotation. Every offensive deck is going to need to pick up some heavy hitters in Guilds of Ravnica, even Green Stompy. Scrapheap Scrounger, Heart of Kiran, and Rhonas, the Indomintable are major losses.

The decks best positioned to sit atop Standard at rotation are UW Control and Bant Turbo Fog. Teferi ($35) will likely shoot up to $50 in the Fall, and Search for Azcanta and Glacial Fortress might see some gains too. I'm hopeful that my 100 copies of Seal Away will go somewhere, and you may want to consider picking some up if you want to add a penny stock to your portfolio. For you paper players, consider picking up your Nexus of Fates now.

1. What Cards Can Fill Old Shoes?

Guilds of Ravnica can't fully replace the entirety of Kaladesh and Amonkhet blocks on its own, so some cards from the most recent sets will have to step up and take their place in the metagame; identifying those most likely to do so are another avenue for speculation success. In particular, it might be worth taking a look at cards that saw play late last year before sinking back beneath the surface.

Two, Deadeye Tracker and Dire Fleet Daredevil, I mentioned last week. But there are actually several others that have some potential as speculation targets. Hostage Taker ($0.93) has already increased by 100% this week, but these other three are still in the doldrums. Deathgorge Scavenger ($0.27) and Profane Procession ($0.11) are two I'm considering investing in over the next few weeks.

III. Wizards and Saprolings

'More fungus friends?!' -- Slimefoot, the Stowaway

Izzet and Golgari will both be in Guilds of Ravnica. Izzet always gets a plethora of Wizards, and we can glean from the released concept art that Golgari will feature Elves and our favorite Fungi and Saproling friends. Wizards and Saprolings were already tier-three decks in Standard, and I think both will become more competitive after rotation. How competitive it is impossible to foretell, but it has made me more inclined to invest in this area.

Golgari tokens don't have many great speculation opportunities because most of the cards are common and uncommon. But two cards stand out:

You should already have been picking up your Woodland Cemeteries, but definitely grab your playset if you haven't already. Tendershoot Dryad ($0.19) is a powerhouse rare for a Golgari token deck, and it commanded a $1.00 price tag during the first month of Dominaria when players weren't yet sick of getting crushed by Goblin Chainwhirler. I think it's a coin flip to return to that price, so I'll be picking up some copies and waiting for them to shoot up.

(Hey, at least I laughed.)

As with Golgari Tokens, many of the Wizard workhorses are common and uncommon, limiting our speculation options. There are some cards, however, I think are worthy of your consideration.

Although Wizard's Lightning and Naban are both good penny stocks, the Wizard I'm most excited about is Naru Meha ($0.30). I'm not saying that she'll definitely go up in value — we have to see the Guilds of Ravnica spoilers — but I do believe that she could spike to $1.50 or more, and possibly settle at double or triple her present value. This is one of those low risk, low probability, high potential speculations that I like incorporating into my portfolio.

I'm not sure we'll see Sulfur Falls fall below $0.75 again, but I'll be snapping up any copies that I do see there.

Signing Off

No matter what you think of my picks, I hope that you find value in incorporating some of the metrics I'm using into your speculation decisions. Mono Red will no longer be Standard's Level 0 deck, aggressive decks are losing more than the Teferi decks, the balance and quality of mana will be changing, and all of this will impact the fabric of Standard. Considering these things when deciding where to put your money over the next several weeks will give you a definite leg up.

As always, I look forward to reading your questions and comments. Last week I learned from the comments that there was a revolutionary rider who performed an even greater feat than Paul Revere, so who knows what we'll learn this week!

Unlocked: ABUGames’s Aggressive Store Credit Move

Posted on August 20, 2018August 20, 2018 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Exactly one week ago I sat down at my computer and wrote an article describing the recent drop in vendor buylists. I guarded against panic, suggesting these were opportunities to reload on inventory. Buy prices tend to move in cycles when it comes to older cards—vendors remain out of stock for a while, they increase their buy prices significantly, restock, and then drop their prices again.

ABUGames was a poster child for this kind of activity. I had seen them do this multiple times with cards from Magic’s earliest sets. But just this past week, they did something unprecedented. Despite keeping their cash buy prices lower than other vendors, they increased their store credit offers astronomically. I mean, just look at these numbers!

Pld UNL Black Lotus: $9025
Pld UNL Mox Sapphire: $2945
Pld LEA Vesuvan Doppelganger: $950
Pld ARN Library of Alexandria: $1044
Pld UNL Chaos Orb: $1045
Pld LEA Wall of Swords: $56.55 (NM is $133.75)
Pld LEA Red Ward: $38

These are just a smattering of numbers I was browsing lately, and my jaw just about hit the floor. My first reaction: let me start shopping for deals so I can put a massive buylist together! But it wasn’t that easy. Also, I am starting to get concerned about these numbers and what ABUGames is doing…

Remembering Pucatrade

Remember when Pucatrade was a massively popular site and hundreds of players vocalized how awesome it was? I was nearly convinced to sign up on multiple occasions, but I just couldn’t get passed their currency, the pucapoint. Older iterations of the site constantly generated new pucapoints with no system to remove any. The result: bad inflation. The pucapoint’s value relative to the US Dollar dropped badly and it scared some users away from the site.

Since then, Pucatrade has overhauled their system and it looks like they’re turning things around. They’ve created ways to use pucapoints that make them “disappear” from the system, keeping inflation in check. This gives me confidence the new iteration of Pucatrade can be around for the long haul.

Why am I discussing Pucatrade here? Because I’m starting to worry about the value of a dollar of ABUGames trade credit. A couple years ago, ABUGames offered a best-in-class 35 percent trade credit bonus on their buylist. This always motivated me to take store credit so I could take advantage of that sweet bonus. Then ABUGames upped that trade bonus to 50 percent—this was revolutionary at the time! They quickly became one of my favorite vendors to sell to. (Aside: Star City Games followed suit and now offer 50 percent trade-in as well).

Then when ABUGames overhauled their website, they started a new practice where they used variable trade credit multipliers. If a card was really in-demand and they didn’t want to fork over the cash, they could offer a 100 percent trade credit bonus to get copies in without impacting cash flow. This is where my concern started. Wouldn’t such aggressive trade credit numbers lead to inflation, of a sort?

Now the trade bonus is all over the place, and some of the multipliers are through the roof. Did you know that ABUGames offers a 310 percent trade-in bonus on played Unlimited Chaos Orb?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chaos Orb

Just do the math: $336.05 cash and $1045 trade credit.

Opportunity Knocking?

This is kind of ridiculous when you think about it. Compare these numbers to Card Kingdom’s buy price on Chaos Orb. They offer $840 for NM copies so VG copies would be $504. So if you had a copy you wanted to move, what would you do? Well if you wanted cash you certainly wouldn’t go to ABUGames. Thus in instances like these, ABUGames is very likely to maintain their cash levels where they are. That’s fine; I suspect they want this outcome.

But what if you’re looking for trade credit? Well, in that case you’d be a fool not to take that 310 percent trade credit bonus, right? After all, it’s ten times better than Card Kingdom’s 30 percent trade bonus.

But before clicking that checkout button, let’s peruse some of the most desirable cards we may want to trade into at ABUGames. When I saw that I could get over a thousand dollars in trade credit for my Chaos Orb, I started mentally creating a buylist shopping cart that would help me work my way to that next piece of Power! So I immediately went to ABUGames’ Power 9 inventory…

First observation: they’re out of stock of every Unlimited piece of Power except for one: a Near Mint Mox Sapphire that costs $5937.49. Wait, what?! Since when was a NM Sapphire this expensive? I would have been more than happy to cough up $2000 in store credit for a played Time Walk or something, but if they had any stock of those they’d be $3104.99. That’s hardly worth it even with trade credit.

Next I thought about sending in a few more cards and upgrading to Beta Power. In this case, ABUGames has a played Beta Mox Jet for $6209.99, a destroyed Mox Sapphire for $4864.49, and a really HP Time Walk for $4599.99. Out of those, only the Jet would tempt me, but there are no pictures of that one posted yet. Also, I’m not sure how I feel about this one. For example, is a played Beta Mox Jet really worth six Chaos Orbs? I don’t know.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Jet

Stepping away from Power, it seems many of ABUGames’s prices are suddenly way too high. It is becoming prohibitively expensive to acquire high-end cards from that site even with store credit. Numbers are getting out of hand when compared to other sites, and it feels like inflation is running away with itself. The value of a dollar at ABUGames is becoming less and less valuable.

Looking Ahead

I did some more digging, and it turns out I did find some cards potentially worth grabbing with store credit. Not everything is explosively expensive just yet. But let’s play this “movie” all the way through, shall we?

What’s going to happen next, is that players with stashes of Old School cards are going to be tempted to trade in their cards for the inflated trade credit numbers. This is an inevitability, and people are already jumping onto this bandwagon.

I left Tom May’s reply in the image because I think it’s quite perceptive. But ABUGames hasn’t jacked up all their prices across the board. There’s probably no reason for them to suddenly charge more for newer cards like Mox Amber. Those probably aren’t moving very quickly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Amber

However as players comb ABU’s website and find all the best deals to apply their credit towards, ABUGames will slowly have to adjust their pricing to accommodate. For example, if I decided to speculate on Mox Amber I could ship ABUGames that Chaos Orb and acquire nearly all of their foil Mox Ambers at $42.69 a pop. That’s about the same price Card Kingdom charges for their foils, so this really is a solid price considering the inflated trade credit I’m using.

But once I do that, ABUGames will have to adjust their foil Mox Amber price upward. Otherwise they won’t have any in stock. If this happens enough times, prices on everything across the board will have to increase as players convert their random Old School cards into massive collections of “Modern or Commander stuff.” As prices rise, ABUGames will continue to offer more trade credit, and a vicious cycle could unfold. The value of ABUGames store credit could tank.

My Recommendation

If you have store credit at ABUGames, I’d recommend cashing out now. My prediction above is a bit doom and gloom and by no means a guarantee. For example, ABUGames could be testing out a new business model, and in a week’s time we could see prices change back to where they were before. It’s certainly possible.

But why wait and see? It seems obvious from this vantage point that the value of your trade credit can drop from here. If you’re holding credit to scoop up cards in the face of a buyout, I suppose that can still be a solid strategy. Just don’t expect your credit to stretch as far as it once did.

My other piece of advice: let the arbitrage begin! It’s everywhere now, as long as you’re willing to accept store credit. I listed Red Ward at the beginning of the article on purpose. You could go on TCGplayer right now and buy the five cheapest Alpha Red Wards for $128.63. Then you can turn around and ship them to ABUGames for $190 in store credit! Perhaps even more, since one of those copies is Lightly Played!

Examples like this are everywhere now. It’s to the point where if you want to acquire a card from ABUGames, it is almost reckless to do so with cash. As long as you have some time, you can buy stuff from TCGplayer or eBay, ship to ABUGames for store credit, and use that credit to get what you’re after. In the case of the Red Wards, you can get any singles from ABUGames that you’d like at a 30 percent “discount.”

There was an error retrieving a chart for Red Ward

Buying stuff with cash just feels suboptimal. And that’s my concern: ABUGames is going to build up massive trade credit debt while their incoming cashflow could become choked. Hopefully things don't get to this extreme, but this is the current trajectory we’re on.

Wrapping It Up

Last week I was warning folks not to panic as buy prices dropped. This week I’m telling you about how crazy-high buy prices have gotten. This market is really bizarre sometimes!

Very recently, ABUGames decided they wanted to get more aggressive in acquiring older cards with store credit. So they set ridiculously high trade-in numbers for cards. This has created a ton of arbitrage opportunity, which will in turn lead to a glut of ABUGames store credit. People are going to be accumulating massive amounts of credit, and will need to dump that credit by acquiring the most fairly priced cards they can find on ABU’s site. This will lead to further inflation of pricing on their site, and I could see that going sour pretty quickly.

Hopefully that doesn’t happen—hopefully they adjust their numbers again quickly after seeing how this unfolds, and everything goes back to the way it was before. But until then, I have just two pieces of advice: ride the arbitrage wave that is now open to us, but make sure you don’t hold ABUGames store credit for a long period of time.

I’d recommend spending that store credit immediately, or even ordering what you want first and then submitting your buylist order to cover the cost (ABUGames allows this). This way you’re locking in what you’re after and take on minimal risk of enduring rampant inflation.

Inflation was a problem for Pucatrade back in the day, and I am starting to worry about it with ABUGames. Hopefully I’m wrong, and everything works out perfectly. But it doesn’t hurt to be cautious in the meantime.

…

Sigbits

Want some more crazy ABU credit numbers? How about Disrupting Scepter: $950 in trade credit for played Alpha copies! Their Beta and Unlimited numbers aren’t nearly that generous, but maybe that means their sell prices for Beta and Unlimited aren’t too crazy-high? This is worth looking into if you have some trade credit!

Unlimited dual lands also got crazy bumps at ABUGames. They’re now offering $1187.50 for a played Underground Sea and $2140 for a near mint one! Even Revised numbers seem whacky—$609 for a played Revised Underground Sea?! This is way above market, and you could readily buy them from TCGplayer to ship to ABUGames for arbitrage.

Here’s one that is sure to get you scratching your head: Alpha Orcish Artillery. I guess its misprinting makes it more desirable, but does that merit a $207.50 credit buy price on played copies?! They’re offering $380 if you can find a near mint copy. This is one where arbitrage isn’t so easy, however. I see only one copy on TCGplayer, it’s moderately played, and listed for $262.82. So maybe this isn’t such a good buy price after all?

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #6

Posted on August 17, 2018September 8, 2018 by Edward Eng

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There wasn’t too much new stuff happening at Grand Prix Brussels or Grand Prix Orlando this past weekend. But that’s not too shocking since we’re winding down in Standard before rotation this fall. As per usual, here are the criteria for Hold 'Em & Fold 'Em.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Article Series Focus

Cards that you should hold onto or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Hold ‘Em

Karn, Scion of Urza - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn, Scion of Urza

I think it’s time to pick this up since it’s close to the all-time low. It’s a colorless four-mana planeswalker that can pretty much go in every deck. And not just in Standard. Time has already proven that it has what it takes to see play in Eternal formats. Take a look at this list from MTG Stocks.

Keep in mind that Llanowar Elves and Druid of the Cowl will be around after rotation to help power out Karn a turn early. And UWx Control might start playing this again next to Teferi, Hero of Dominaria as its turn four and five punches.

I remember I wanted foils when they were $100. And now they’ve dropped to about $86. If you want these and have the cash, now is probably a good time to buy. I don’t really see these going on lower than $75, but I can see them going to $125 or even $150 within the next year or two.

You can find them on TCGplayer. Just a warning though—I’ve purchased from MTG Mint Card before, and they’re a bit slow on delivery. I wouldn’t buy from them if you’re in a hurry to play with Karn.

Ghitu Lavarunner - Dominaria (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ghitu Lavarunner

If you’re looking for some good deals on some cheaper cards, here’s one of them. This is starting to show up a little more in Standard and will survive rotation. Kyle Cooper lost to Gabriel Joglar in the finals of Grand Prix Orlando with it in his list.

Standard: Mono-Red Wizards by Kyle Cooper

Creatures

4 Soul-Scar Mage

4 Ghitu Lavarunner

4 Bomat Courier

4 Earthshaker Khenra

4 Viashino Pyromancer

4 Goblin Chainwhirler

2 Ahn-Crop Crasher

Non-Creature Spells

4 Lightning Strike

4 Wizard's Lightning

4 Shock

3 The Flame of Keld

Lands

19 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Mountain

3 Hazoret the Fervent

3 Chandra's Defeat

2 Abrade

2 Cut // Ribbons

1 Banefire

1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

2 Insult // Injury

The cool thing about Ghitu Lavamancer is that it’s popular in Pauper and starting to see some fringe play in Modern Wizards. Check out Patxi’s Burn and LazZoO’s UR Delver in Pauper.

Pauper: Burn by Patxi

Creatures

4 Ghitu Lavarunner

4 Thermo-Alchemist

2 Ahn-Crop Crasher

Non-Creature Spells

4 Chain Lightning

4 Fireblast

4 Lava Spike

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Needle Drop

4 Rift Bolt

4 Searing Blaze

1 Shard Volley

4 Curse of the Pierced Heart

Lands

3 Forgotten Cave

16 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Electrickery

1 Flaring Pain

4 Keldon Marauders

1 Martyr of Ashes

3 Molten Rain

4 Smash to Smithereens

Pauper: UR Delver by LazZoO

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Ghitu Lavarunner

4 Spellstutter Sprite

Non-Creature Spells

4 Brainstorm

4 Counterspell

4 Daze

2 Dispel

2 Gush

4 Lightning Bolt

1 Mutagenic Growth

4 Ponder

2 Preordain

3 Skred

Lands

3 Ash Barrens

4 Evolving Wilds

9 Snow-Covered Island

2 Snow-Covered Mountain

Sideboard

2 Annul

1 Echoing Truth

2 Electrickery

3 Hydroblast

3 Pyroblast

2 Stormbound Geist

2 Swirling Sandstorm

And here’s Trojanmamba’s Modern UR Wizards deck. Although I see a lot of room for improvement in his list, it’s definitely good news for Ghitu Lavamancer.

Modern: UR Wizards by Trojanmamba

Creatures

2 Snapcaster Mage

3 Adeliz, the Cinder Wind

4 Stormchaser Mage

4 Soul-Scar Mage

4 Ghitu Lavarunner

4 Delver of Secrets

Non-Creature Spells

2 Vapor Snag

3 Mutagenic Growth

4 Wizard's Lightning

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Opt

4 Serum Visions

Lands

3 Sulfur Falls

3 Island

4 Mountain

4 Shivan Reef

4 Spirebluff Canal

Sideboard

2 Tormod's Crypt

2 Spell Pierce

2 Smash to Smithereens

1 Negate

2 Dispel

2 Dismember

1 Disdainful Stroke

3 Ceremonious Rejection

Viashino Pyromancer - M19 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Viashino Pyromancer

Here’s another decent deal on a cheaper card. Viashino Pyromancer also showed up in Kyle Cooper’s Mono-Red Wizards list. And it also sticks around for rotation. It only sees play in Standard Mono-Red right now. But it could easily slot into the various Wizard decks in Modern that are popping up here and there. It’s also a common so this could easily start popping up in Pauper soon as well.

Opt - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Opt

If you look close at Trojanmamba’s UR Wizards Modern deck, you’ll see that he runs four Opts. And then you take a look at this list.

Wow, that’s a lot of decks it’s played in. I already have a playset of non-foil Ixalan ones, but I’m tempted to buy four to twelve of these. Why? You know why. It’s promo time!

There are some relatively cheap copies on TCGplayer around $3 to $4 each, and I don’t expect them to last.

Yixlid Jailer - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yixlid Jailer

The Zombie Wizard only sees play in Vintage right now. However, with the recent uptick in graveyard strategies in Modern like Bridgevine, this could start to see some play if it’s awkward for your deck to have Leyline of the Void in the sideboard. I’m not sure if it’s a more effective answer than something like Surgical Extraction, but it does stop Bridge from Below. And if it dies, it also exiles Bridge.

I don’t think this will make the cut in Modern Wizard decks though.

Recent Buys

Yixlid Jailer - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yixlid Jailer

I bought a playset from TCGplayer on August 13 for about $2 each. There aren’t a lot left; so if you want them, you might want to get them now. The artwork on these is pretty nice just like the Future Sight ones, making them another awesome promo.

Updates

Sai, Master Thopterist - M19 (Foil) [Hold]

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sai, Master Thopterist

Sai is on the rise. We’ve seen the Vintage playable, Paradoxical Outcome, hit Standard in combination with Sai in list like Luke Feeney's.

Standard: Paradoxical Outcome by Luke Feeney

Creatures

4 Ornithopter

4 Sai, Master Thopterist

Non-Creature Spells

2 Blink of an Eye

3 Commit / Memory

4 Paradoxical Outcome

4 Reverse Engineer

2 Aetherflux Reservoir

4 Fountain of Renewal

4 Inspiring Statuary

3 Mox Amber

4 Prophetic Prism

4 Renegade Map

Lands

1 Inventors' Fair

14 Island

3 Zhalfirin Void

Sideboard

1 Aethersphere Harvester

4 Glint-Nest Crane

2 Karn, Scion of Urza

2 Negate

2 Sorcerous Spyglass

3 Time of Ice

1 Walking Ballista

But the real reason why Sai is on the rise is because of the innovative spin on Modern’s Ironworks Combo. Take a look back at Ben Stark’s list from Pro Tour 25th Anniversary.

Modern: Ironworks Combo by Benjamin Stark

Creatures

2 Myr Retriever

4 Scrap Trawler

Non-Creature Spells

4 Ancient Stirrings

3 Chromatic Sphere

4 Chromatic Star

3 Engineered Explosives

4 Ichor Wellspring

4 Krark-Clan Ironworks

4 Mind Stone

4 Mox Opal

2 Pyrite Spellbomb

4 Terrarion

Lands

3 Buried Ruin

4 Darksteel Citadel

2 Forest

4 Grove of the Burnwillows

2 Inventors' Fair

3 Yavimaya Coast

Sideboard

1 Island

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Nature's Claim

3 Negate

3 Sai, Master Thopterist

Summary

Hold ‘Em

Karn, Scion of Urza - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)
Ghitu Lavarunner - Dominaria (Foil)
Viashino Pyromancer - M19 (Foil)
Opt - FNM Promos
Yixlid Jailer - FNM Promos

Recent Buys

Yixlid Jailer - FNM Promos

Updates

Sai, Master Thopterist - M19 (Foil) [Hold]

Have fun,
Eddie

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