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Understanding the Wizards v. Hex Lawsuit (in plain English)

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Hello! In addition to being a director of this site, I also lawyer around. I run my own practice, which mostly involves business law and estate planning. Like you, I heard about the WOTC v. Hex suit yesterday and I'm going to break it down into understandable bits. Let's set some ground rules first, though:

1. This isn't legal advice, don't rely on it as such.

2. I'm not going to entertain discussions of "all IP law is bad/restrictive/awesome/strangling" etc. That's for another day.

3. In America, you can sue anyone for anything.

4. Although I like IP law a lot and I studied it a lot, I don't currently practice it and I welcome other informed opinions.

5. Magic and Hasbro and Wizards of the Coast may or may not kill games, actively kill gamers, destroy the industry, spawn irresponsible manchildren, deliberately poison wells or launder cartel money. We're not going to talk about how evil they are here, either.

6. A great deal of IP law is made in courts, not federal statutes, and different federal courts can decide the same thing different ways.

7. The law is complex. This article is not. I am purposely avoiding throwing intense legal doctrine at you. Please read the words "most of the time, and there are exceptions" into any sentence you're about to argue with me on.

Great, let's dig in!

Reading The Complaint

When you file a lawsuit, the "thing" you file is called a complaint. You list out the facts and what laws the defendant has broken. The other side then gets to answer with defenses and denials. Let's look at the Wizards complaint:

Wizards of the Coast v. Cryptozoic Entertainment et. al

The first section lists out some facts and explanations of just what the heck Magic is. The second and subsequent ones list out why Wizards thinks it's entitled to win the lawsuit. You'll note that they cite the Copyright Act, Lanham Act and Patent Act. Those are the laws they'll be suing under.

When a lawyer reads a complaint like this, they ask "what is the central question of this case?" I think it is the following:

"Can you re-skin/clone a video game legally? If you cannot, why not?"

 

Why did I focus on it being a video game? Simple: the attorneys for Wizards focus on it. You see, Hex is digital-only and Wizards can draw closer comparisons by demonstrating that the digital version of their game is too close to Hex.

Civil Procedure geekery: Wizards requested a jury on this, which is wild. Trademark law depends on "will this confuse a consumer?" so I see the jury selection process (venire and voir dire) may involve a bit of trying to stack the jury with either super-geeks or super-clueless people. Also, Hex is a different company than Crypto, but WOTC wants to join them here - it's a bit of corporate law litigation attempting to say that two companies are actually operating as one and share all liabilities.

The First Claim: Copyright Violation

Let's begin with what a copyright is. A copyright is basically a legal protection for an original expression on a fixed medium. So a song on a record, words on a page, ballet steps written down, and paint on a canvas are all copyrightable things. A phone book is not copyrightable (it's not original). A copyright only protects the expression and not the underlying idea. Marvel does not have a corner on men in mechanical suits who fight crime - they only have the particular expression of that idea in Iron Man comic books.

Confused? That's okay. Copyrights are pretty complex things. A lot of what can be copyrighted is figured out in court when people fight over it. The basic test that the court will pose in this case is "is the expression original? Does the potentially infringing work actually borrow from the original expression?"

Wizards contends that Hex copied the "cards, plot, elements, circumstances, play sequence, and flow of Magic." This is tricky to claim, because some of these things are not copyrightable. Remember that idea-expression issue? I cannot copyright the way to play Yahtzee - that's an idea. But I can copyright the rulebook I write for it. (This may be patentable - we'll get to that later). So I'd say that the fact that Hex uses cards and has a similar play sequence is not an expression - I don't see that as deserving copyright protection. I have no idea what "flow of Magic" is and I've played for twenty years. Regarding the plot, Wizards will have to show that Hex appropriates copyrighted expressions (things like the Mirran/Phyrexian story arc, the Brothers' War, etc). I don't know enough about Hex to say whether it rips off the Magic plot. I'm guessing they were smarter than that.

The complaint goes on: "Cryptozoic copied the physical layout and ornamental aspects of Magic cards." Hex may not have copied it - they may be paying tribute or building on it. This is what we call a "question for the jury." Did Unreal appropriate Wolfenstein's first-person shooter model? The legal phrase is "derivative work" and that means that the piece borrows substantially from a copyrighted work. It may or may not be protected - the piece has to show substantial originality. Hex's cards look more like a "tribute" to me than a blatant copy. They have the same elements, but they are arranged differently.

The complaint continues: "Players in both games are confined to the same parameters based on an initial dealing of seven cards and play progresses in a substantially identical manner. Players must efficiently use their skill and calculation to assemble their initial decks and then in suitable selection and play of the various cards."

That's trying to sneak in patent law into a copyright claim. Good for the lawyers for trying, but there's nothing in the copyright law that protects games in which seven cards are dealt.

In previous cases, courts have held that some rules and functions of games can serve as an expression worthy of copyright. The important takeaway for you is that this is not a solved matter in the legal system.

The Second Claim: Trademark Violation and Consumer Confusion

A trademark is a distinctive mark (usually a logo) that lets a consumer identify a product uniquely. Recall how the Coca-Cola logo tells you that what's in the can is a Coke. Problems come up when someone takes that Coke logo and uses it to sell milkshakes - as a consumer, you would probably think that something bearing the Coke logo came from the Coke plant. Trademarks protect consumers from buying ripoff products.

Wizards says that Hex rips off the "trade dress" of Magic. Trade dress is the concept of packaging and the product's visual aspects. Think of the color of a bottle of Tide detergent, for example. The color has no function for the product - it doesn't work any better or worse because of that color. It's only there to catch your eye and let you easily identify the Tide on the shelf. If you grabbed a bottle with that orange color, you might be pretty annoyed when you got back and found out it was something else.

 

I would not be surprised if P&G, which owns Tide, is currently suing the makers of Tandil to get it off the shelves.

With Magic, the trade dress includes the packs. However, with Magic Online and Duels, the trade dress gets a lot murkier. There's no physical appearance of a product on a shelf; no pack to unwrap.

Wizards contends that the game play, rules, player interaction with the game, layout and arrangement, visual presentation, sequence and flow and scoring system constitute the "overall look and feel" of the game and are trade dress - and that's ridiculous. Trade dress must have no function to be considered trade dress. Do you get that? Remember that orange Tide bottle. The orange doesn't add anything to it. That handle on the jug may add function, but it may be ornamental. You could fight on that. But you can't fight that the scoring system has no function and is merely aesthetic.

See, what Wizards' lawyers are trying to do is use trade dress as a backdoor copyright. This happens a lot, so don't act shocked here that good lawyers are trying a good lawyering technique. What I mean about backdoor copyright is that Wizards is trying to assert what should be a copyrightable matter - the aesthetics of the packaging - through an entirely different law. With Tide's bottle, the orange isn't copyrightable - it's not original. But it can be trademarked, since the orange lets consumers know what the brand is.

The ways that trademarks and copyrights intersect is pretty advanced. Let's break it simply: a copyright protects an original expression of an idea that you have. A trademark protects a customer of yours from buying the wrong thing.

Wizards' own lawyers blow it in their complaint when they say "The distinctive design of the Magic cards is not essential to the use or purpose of the game nor does the design affect the cost or quality of the cards; the design is merely an ornamental arrangement of features, some of which are functional."

First, the design of the card - the casting cost and name at the top, for example, serve a function in the game - they let you easily hold the cards in your hand and see what you're looking at. Second, trade dress can't have any function - it  "must not serve a utility or function outside of creating recognition in the consumer’s mind." So if putting the name of the card at the top has a function (it does) then it's not part of trade dress. The lawyers really blow it when they admit that some of the features are functional. I think you'll have a hard time telling a court that several functional features, when put together, make a functionless trade dress. Adding up a bunch of somethings does not make a nothing.

The Third Claim: Patent Wackiness

First, a caveat: I am not a patent lawyer. Patent lawyers are very specialized and intelligent attorneys and the rest of us defer to them just about all the time.

A patent protects a unique invention or process. It protects it by preventing someone else from duplicating your invention/process for a period of time (typically 20 years).

Yes, Richard Garfield patented tapping. The patent, by my reading, runs out on June 22 of this year (2014). Wizards went back and tacked on some other parts to that same patent, which you can read here. The patent covers just about everything you could imagine in a TCG. It covers building decks, casting spells, the process of trading with others and more.

Wizards is saying that Hex violates a lot of its patents. Hex probably does. Here's the problem:

Those patent claims are beatable.

For example, they might be too abstract. They might be too broad. Having a patent does not guarantee that it will be valid in the face of someone challenging it. And importantly, if they run out when I think they will, Hex/Crypto can limit the damages they pay out to only the infringing time. After that, Hex isn't infringing on any sort of patents held by Wizards. They're probably still infringing on all the patents that early adopters lined up on the internet regarding downloads, backups, dropboxes and other horror stories. Litigating patents takes an incredible amount of money, especially when you're trying to get it declared invalid one way or another.

That said, I feel that Wizards has got a good chance of winning on the patent issue if the court determines that they're still valid. The patents protect just about everything patentable in Magic and Hex is as close to Magic as I've ever seen from another TCG.

Some Excellent Further Reading If You Want To See Legal Decisions Behind These Concepts

I am indebted in this section to my friend and fellow attorney Jacob Johnson, who sent along these links as we were chatting this morning about the case.

Tetris v. Xio Interactive deals with cloning a Tetris game. Xio made a Tetris clone and Tetris sued them and won on copyright infringement and trade dress. Regarding copyrights, the court said this:

"I find the following elements are also protected expression and further support a finding of infringement: the dimensions of the playing field, the display of "garbage" lines, the appearance of "ghost" or shadow pieces, the display of the next piece to fall, the change in color of the pieces when they lock with the accumulated pieces, and the appearance of squares automatically filling in the game board when the game is over. None of these elements are part of the idea (or the rules or the functionality) of Tetris, but rather are means of expressing those ideas. I note that standing alone, these discrete elements might not amount to a finding of infringement, but here in the context of the two games having such overwhelming similarity, these copied elements do support such a finding. It is the wholesale copying of the Tetris look that the Court finds troubling more than the individual similarities each considered in isolation."

Emphasis is mine. Wholesale ripoffs draw the ire of a judge. Note that this case came from the federal district in New Jersey and the Washington Court does not have to follow their reasoning.

That case has also got a good trade dress breakdown if you're interested.

Spry Fox v. Lolapps (lolwut?) is in the same district as Wizards' case and outlines copyright and Lanham Act laws. I'm wagering that it will be cited in the opinion in this case. You'll see a (poorly-reasoned) Lanham Act claim that the judge threw out and a copyright claim that survived to trial. The copyright claim discusses copyrighting elements of a game. It says, for example, that coins or points in a game are not copyrightable - they are "scenes a faire," something that a storyteller or game designer needs to include in the genre. The court won't grant a monopoly on collecting coins or saving princesses. It also contains the phrase "bears and yetis are both wild creatures." Thrilling to a legal reader!

Use it or lose it.

Wizards may be the bully here, picking on another game designer. On the other hand though, parts of Intellectual Property law requires that you actively defend your property against infringers or else you lose the protections.

If Wizards does not sue here, they may give up substantial rights in the future.

Where It Goes From Here: The Procedural Steps

Wizards has filed a complaint. Hex will file a response, where they raise defenses and deny claims from Wizards. It may read something like "we affirm paragraph 17 and deny all other paragraphs."

Wizards and Hex will then file for summary judgment. This means that they say "look judge, you don't need to have a trial - we have the law on our side already!" Hex will say "Wizards doesn't have any valid claims and they're reading the law wrongly." Wizards will say "look at the complaint and rule in our favor." A court only grants summary judgment when there are no facts that need to be decided in the case - the evidence is already there, in the form of sworn statements and other pre-trial materials.

The Tetris and Spry Fox documents linked above are both rulings on summary judgment. They are not final trial rulings, except where the court has granted summary judgment. That said, they're great for reading the legal concepts behind the IP issues here.

Where this can all go horribly wrong for Hex is in the discovery phase. Discovery is when you say "okay, opposing party, give me everything you've written about this matter." That means that if Hex has a file with Form of the Dragon in it and a note that says "this is great, let's copy it!" then they have to turn it over to Wizards. That's really painful to do and if that kind of evidence exists, it will brutalize Hex's chances of successfully defending against claims of copying.

Hex may settle with Wizards, but Wizards probably does not want a digital-focus Magic clone that's leagues better than Magic Online. They want to kill that kind of competition. So Wizards will only accept a settlement that says "we won't make Hex in its current form anymore."

If I'm a lawyer for Cryptozoic, I try to get CZE off of the lawsuit and have it only deal with Hex. That way, I don't lose more than the ~$2mil that Hex has from Kickstarter. This is company-killing litigation if Wizards prevails on its claims AND gets all the damages that it wants. It means that if Wizards wins on either the second or third claim, the court could permanently prevent Hex from making the game.

A victory for Wizards here does not mean that all other TCGs die. It doesn't mean that Hearthstone goes away. It will probably only mean that you cannot copy Magic's IP so closely as Hex does.

I predict that Wizards will win on its patent claims, it has a good shot at winning on copyright claims, and it will lose on its Lanham Act claims.

I'm definitely open to discussion!

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Exclusive Interview with Stephen Menendian

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Magic has Vintage fever. For the first time in twenty years players will have the chance to crack a pack with the game’s most iconic cards. I missed out the first time around, so I’m looking forward to drafting a lot of Vintage Masters. I trust the Magic Online crew has invested the time to make this a great draft format.

But what happens once those Vintage cards enter your collection? I’ve never played a game of Vintage in my life and barely know a Mana Crypt from a Mana Drain.

Fortunately I got a hold of Stephen Menendian to help us sort things through. Many of you will know him as one of the most prolific writers on Vintage—in addition to his Star City Games archive you can check out his So Many Insane Plays podcast, his article archive on Eternal Central, and his e-book on understanding Gush.

With Vintage Masters right around the corner, I thought it would be interesting to hear one of the great minds in Vintage talk about what the release will mean to the future of Vintage (and how to profit from it).

Stephen Menendian at U.S. Nationals 2011, where he made the finals with Bob/Gush Control

Quiet Speculation (QS): Do you currently play Classic on MTGO? Are you excited for Vintage Masters?

Stephen Menendian (SM): I am very excited for Vintage Masters. I don't currently play Classic on MTGO, but I have accumulated a fairly decent collection of key staples. The main reason I don't play Classic is that I don't yet own Force of Wills. I have been waiting to see if they are reprinted in Vintage Masters so that they may not be quite so expensive!

I have drafted the holiday cube on MTGO a few times, and lost almost every game I played because of my unfamiliarity with the medium—I repeatedly misclicked plays that cost me games. That said, I am looking forward to playing Vintage on MTGO tournaments as soon as I can!

QS: How do you think Vintage Masters will be received by the current Vintage community? Do you think Vintage will take off as an MTGO format?

SM: I think the attention and promotion of Vintage Masters will be very well received by the current Vintage community, even those who don't play online. However, I have some concerns about the availability and price of cards on MTGO. From the outside looking in, Legacy seems like it doesn't get much support on MTGO, and the tournaments seem small and irregular. Vintage will end up being even more expensive.

While I'm unreservedly enthusiastic about Vintage Masters, it's frustrating that the Vintage format suffers most by being the last format on MTGO for the same reason it suffers by being the "first" format in paper Magic. If Power Nine is not widely available, and it appears it won't be, and staples like Force of Will, dual lands and fetchlands aren't accessible and affordable, then the format won't grow. I really, really hope it does.

QS: What are some budget Vintage decks that you would recommend for players looking to get their feet wet in Vintage without buying Power or other expensive staples? Is it possible to build a competitive deck without Power?

SM: I think the more important question is: will it be possible to build decks without Force of Will, fetchlands and dual lands? Workshop decks and Dredge decks will be accessible decks without Force, and Dredge can easily be built without power nine.

You don't need all of these...

A deck I am really keen on right now is U/R Delver, which only requires Ruby, Sapphire, Lotus, Ancestral and Time Walk.

U/R Delver by Stephen Menendian

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Young Pyromancer
2 Snapcaster Mage
2 Vendilion Clique

Spells

4 Force of Will
4 Mental Misstep
2 Flusterstorm
2 Spell Pierce
1 Steel Sabotage
1 Misdirection
4 Gush
4 Preordain
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Time Walk
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
3 Lightning Bolt
1 Fire // Ice

Sideboard

4 Ingot Chewer
1 Shattering Spree
1 Mountain
2 Pyroblast
4 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Ravenous Trap

QS: Vintage Masters cards will all use the modern card frame. To what extent do you expect online players will place a premium on the old-border frame and classic art?

SM: Vintage players love the classic art, but the digital nature of the medium makes the art less important. It's hard to feel the texture and full flavor of card art on a computer screen. I don't think "pimpness" matters quite as much online.

QS: They've announced that Vintage Masters will include no Modern-legal cards, thus making these cards a potentially good target for speculation. What Modern-legal cards see extensive play in Vintage?

SM: The following Modern-legal cards see heavy play or are format staples:

Lands

Creatures

Miscellaneous

Alexander Carl: The above cards are safe from reprint and should all be low risk with moderate upside. The fetches and chase Modern cards already have high prices, so the best bet will be to pick up the cards that don't see much play in Modern but will get a boost from Vintage.

QS: Do you have any predictions for which cards will and won't get reprinted in Vintage Masters? Are you selling your playsets to rebuy later, or are you holding everything?

SM: I'm going to hold everything. The transaction costs of selling and rebuying are not worth my time or energy. I'm the same way with stocks. I held onto Twitter even though the resale period opened up. It may not be the smartest, but I take a long position.

QS: What do you think are the best Vintage speculation opportunities?

SM: The Modern-legal cards above are good targets—especially Blightsteel Colossus.

I also suspect that Gush won't be reprinted, and I would recommend folks pick them up, as they will be format staples. It's fairly cheap now, but if it’s not in Vintage Masters, it could easily double in price.

QS: Will you buy your Power Nine right away, or wait for it to drop? Do you have a target price in mind?

SM: I will wait a week or so and see what happens. The supply will obviously increase over time, and I don't need to be the first person buying Power. I don't have a target price in mind, but I wouldn't be happy to spend more than $100 per power. If Power was $100 a pop I think it would be difficult to grow the format. I would probably keep my collection of cards, but not buy into Vintage fully.

QS: Given the challenges of card availability and price in paper Vintage, do you think that the future of Vintage is on MTGO?

SM: Yes, in part. I think Vintage on Magic Online could have a symbiotic relationship with Paper Magic—shaping the metagame, creating interest and developing player knowledge.

QS: As you know, MTGO tournaments pay out in packs whereas paper Vintage tournaments are higher stakes and usually pay out in Eternal staples. Can Vintage thrive with the relatively low payout tournaments offered on MTGO?

SM: This is a big question mark for me. I'm hoping that as the medium evolves and improves, that the tournament prizes will also improve in the long run.

QS: What's the best source of information for players wanting to learn how to play Vintage? Which Vintage players should people follow on Twitter?

SM: The best place to find Vintage decklists is Morphling.de, a website with comprehensive Top 8 decklist information. The Mana Drain is also the most popular Vintage forum, and the discussions there can provide useful insights.

For would-be Gush pilots, you should check out my Gush book. I'm working on the third edition now, and I'm almost done!

QS: In the off chance that Gush does show up in Vintage Masters, can you offer any advice on how to play it?

SM: Good question!  Probably turn four or five.

 

Sounds like for more detail than that, we'll have to read the book...Thanks Stephen!

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)

Insider: Riding the Waves

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Last week, I was devoted to proving how good Pharika, God of Affliction was in Standard and I ended up with a reasonable deck. I ran the list I posted last week at my five-round FNM but things did not go as well as I had hoped.

Before I discuss what I learned, here’s the list for reference.

Devoted to Pharika

Creatures

4 Gnarled Scarhide
4 Tormented Hero
4 Pack Rat
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Lifebane Zombie
4 Pharika, God of Affliction
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord

Spells

3 Thoughtseize
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Hero's Downfall
2 Underworld Connections

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple of Malady
2 Mana Confluence
4 Mutavault
6 Forest
4 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Duress
1 Golgari Charm
1 Consign to Dust
4 Pharika's Cure
2 Doom Blade
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Desecration Demon
2 Dark Betrayal

Pack Rat – My thinking with this card was that it is a resilient threat that can win the game on its own. After playing it in an aggressive deck, I think it’s best suited to a deck more focused on removal spells than attacking.

Pack Rat does not provide an aggressive clock with which you can attack your opponent. What it does provide is inevitability. In this deck even a much weaker card like Pain Seer might be a better option. I did win some games with Pack Rat but I also got blown out in some games after going all-in on it.

Spells – The final verdict after one tournament with this deck is that I included too many spells and not enough creatures. Thoughtseize in particular felt like it belonged in the sideboard rather than the main deck. The same can be said of Underworld Connections.

Both of these cards create a strong game plan against U/W Control and Mono-Black Devotion, but against other decks they aren’t necessary to win. Maybe they would be considered for the main deck at a tournament where you were likely to face those two decks in the majority of rounds, but that does not happen often.

Pharika, God of Affliction – While I did like Pharika, sometimes she did not affect the board enough to warrant all four copies. It surprised me how much the additional devotion needed to activate her impacted games.

If she had the same devotion requirement as Thassa, God of the Sea, I would be revamping this deck and wrecking people with it. Requiring five more mana symbols to become a creature is a significant difference from the mono-colored gods. That extra mana symbol often means that you must have another creature in play.

My solution to this dilemma was to include Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord. Of everything about this deck, Jarad was the worst part. I sideboarded him out every round and even though I could have cast him a number of times, casting just about any other spell was better. He still may have a place in the sideboard but certainly not maindeck.

Pharika seemed powerful enough to pursue this deck a bit more, but I keep wondering if maybe Erebos, God of the Dead would be better.

[cardimage cardname='Pack Rat'][cardimage cardname='Pharika, God of Affliction']

Here’s the updated list for anyone who’s interested in trying it out.

(A Little Less) Devoted to Pharika

Creatures

4 Gnarled Scarhide
4 Tormented Hero
4 Pain Seer
4 Brain Maggot
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Lifebane Zombie
3 Pharika, God of Affliction
2 Herald of Torment

Spells

3 Abrupt Decay
3 Hero's Downfall

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple of Malady
2 Mana Confluence
4 Mutavault
6 Forest
4 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Duress
3 Thoughtseize
1 Golgari Charm
1 Consign to Dust
4 Pharika's Cure
2 Doom Blade
2 Desecration Demon

Brain Maggot – This was the one card I wanted to spend some time talking about. I've found the new Mesmeric Fiend much stronger than I expected. Yes, it dies to every removal spell, but it generates you the tempo you are looking for with an aggressive deck. In addition, there are plenty of decks that won’t have a removal spell for it so it plays like the card is exiled.

There was a lot of initial hype from this creature but it has since died down. What I am saying is that the hype was well deserved and we should be revisiting this card as a potential inclusion in our black decks.

[cardimage cardname='Master of Waves'][cardimage cardname='Thassa, God of the Sea']

Flowing in Another Direction

After a lackluster performance in FNM with B/G Aggro, I felt lost at sea surrounded by an ocean of nothingness. Every time I would think of a possible deck for the following morning, it would disappear like a mirage. It was getting late and I needed to make a decision about what to play for the TCG Player event. Then all of a sudden, a wave hit me from out of nowhere and as I was covered in water, all the pieces seemed to slip into place.

Although I have not written much about it, one of the decks I’ve been the most excited about in the new Standard format is Mono-Blue Devotion. Water metaphors aside, I think it is one of the strongest decks and everyone seems to have forgotten about it.

From the players I’ve spoken to, virtually no one is playing this deck any longer and I don’t know why. There are a couple different cards in the deck that make it even better than it was before. Take a look at my updated list.

Mono Blue 2.0

Deck

4 Hypnotic Siren
4 Cloudfin Raptor
4 Tidebinder Mage
4 Frostburn Weird
4 Nightveil Specter
4 Thassa, God of the Sea
4 Master of Waves

Spells

1 Rapid Hybridization
2 Cyclonic Rift
2 Hall of Triumph
2 Bident of Thassa

Lands

3 Mutavault
2 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
20 Island

Sideboard

2 Pithing Needle
2 Thassa's Emissary
1 Rapid Hybridization
1 Curse of the Swine
2 Aetherling
2 Negate
2 Domestication
1 Bident of Thassa
1 Mizzium Skin
1 Triton Tactics

Hypnotic Siren – Since there are only two new cards in the maindeck, I’ll spend some time discussing both of them. On one hand, this card is the same Flying Men as Judge's Familiar. Most of the time it will be just another early creature used to fuel your devotion count, evolve Cloudfin Raptor, and or get in a couple points of damage.

Just like Cyclonic Rift though, when the games go long, Hypnotic Siren can get you out of situations that no other card can. Bestowing this creature made me realize how powerful Mind Control would be in Standard right now.

One way you may not have thought to play this creature is to bestow it on your own creature. There are some circumstances where giving your own creature +1/+1 and flying is the right play. These situations won’t come up often, but remembering it’s an available option can win you games.

Hall of Triumph – This card is good enough that I was going to devote an entire article to it, but PV beat me to it. If you have time, read his analysis of the card as well. To sum it up, this is a powerful spell that has no comparison. Most of the colors never get effects like this. The closest we have come to this card are the lords of specific creature types.

Hall of Triumph lets you play whatever creatures in your color that you want. It is legendary, but that’s its only drawback. Not only does this anthem let you commit fewer threats to the board against control, but your Master of Waves tokens survive when he dies! What more could you want from a card?

Sideboard – Most of the cards in the sideboard are fairly typical. I do not subscribe to the sideboard full of counters like other players do, but Negate does some major work. Mizzium Skin and Triton Tactics function like Counterspells with unique effects as well.

The card you are probably all wondering about is Thassa's Emissary. Before playing with this card, I volunteered that it might be terrible and I would regret running it. The theory behind it is that in the decks hardest matchup, UWx Control, you want more threats to bring in from the sideboard. For a little while I tried Prognostic Sphinx, but it never worked quite the way I wanted it to.

Thassa's Emissary, on the other hand, worked surprisingly well. You can bestow it on a flyer as a pump spell that draws a card, or cast it as a reasonable four-mana creature. I was intrigued by how decent it was. Emissary was a reasonable threat that needed to be answered even if it was the only thing on the board which was exactly what I wanted against control.

Strangely, I would even want to draw this clunky bestow creature instead of Aetherling, so that may free up some sideboard slots. The verdict on Thassa's Emissary is playable, at least against control.

Battling at the TCG Player

The TCG Player event ended up being quite a bit smaller than I was expecting, but the players that showed up were some of the top players in the area. When talking about this event, I spoke of it as the most competitive small event I’ve ever played in. It was more like playing the last four rounds of a large event than playing in a normal small event. Going 3-1 in this event meant more to me than winning my FNM on a regular basis. Here’s what happened.

[cardimage cardname='Nighthowler'][cardimage cardname='Kiora, the Crashing Wave']

Round 1 – G/B Dredge

After one of my friends saw me playing with this deck, he decided to pick it up for himself. Even though he had only been playing the deck for a short period of time, he played it quite proficiently.

If I had to pick which side of this matchup to be on, it would definitely be the Mono-Blue side. What ends up happening is the blue deck puts pressure on Dredge with cheap flying creatures forcing them to try to “combo” as quickly as possible. The problem is that Dredge is slow to set up and then doesn’t have evasion to get through the blue creatures.

In addition, tempo cards like Cyclonic Rift and Rapid Hybridization, as well as an activation of Bident of Thassa, force Dredge into places where they cannot realistically win. This is how I won the match. He swung through for one huge chunk of damage in each game, but was unable to finish me off in either.

Match 2-0
Record 1-0

Round 2 – Bant Midrange

To give you an idea of what I was playing against, think about it as a Junk Midrange deck with Archangel of Thune and Scavenging Ooze, but instead of black mana for Abrupt Decay and removal spells, there was blue mana for Sphinx's Revelation, Jace, Architect of Thought, and Kiora, the Crashing Wave.

Even though at times the deck played like a green-white deck splashing blue, it still contained most of the same cards as any U/W Control deck. To say this was a hard matchup would be an understatement.

In game one, he had a clunky draw and mine curved out perfectly. I had Cloudfin Raptor, into Frostburn Weird, then the best turn three play in Hall of Triumph and Master of Waves to follow up. He didn’t have a chance in this preboard game. The second and third games were totally different though.

While I was sideboarding, I predicted he would cut many of his creatures in favor of Supreme Verdict. Even though I did not know for certain that he was playing Supreme Verdict, he was playing like it was in his deck so I played around it as best I could. After the first one hit, I was in a better situation to win the game because I did not overcommit to the board.

Unfortunately, I did not draw enough lands to bestow Hypnotic Siren and he had counters for all my other routes to victory like using Cyclonic Rift to gain some tempo.

Game three was a sad affair where I drew thirteen lands and all of the non-creature spells in my deck. Even with my lackluster draw, I still had him dead if he drew one less removal spell or I drew one of my few outs. It was an extremely close match and one I would say is about as 50-50 as they come.

Games 1-2
Record 1-1

Round 3 – Bant Control

After playing for almost the entire fifty minutes last round, you can imagine my excitement when my opponent starts off with Hallowed Fountain tapped. I had lots of early pressure with against this UWg control deck. I played as if it were normal U/W because his deck composition was much closer to normal U/W Control than that of my last opponent.

Still, I found it strange that I played against the same overlooked color combination as last round two rounds in a row at a small tournament. Even though I got him down to five life, he drew three Dissolve and three total Detention Sphere or Banishing Light. Needless to say, I had an impossible time winning game one.

In the second game of this epic match, I had a fast clock that I was able to replenish post-wrath. I had a diverse array of spells at my disposal and continuous pressure and my active Bident of Thassa helped me find more of both. Thassa's Emissary helped me finish off my opponent as if it were a 3/3 haste creature.

The third and final game was in my control the whole time. Every time he tried to stabilize I threw another haymaker on the field. There were a number of game winning plays that he stopped like overloading Cyclonic Rift, bestowing Hypnotic Siren to fly over and kill Elspeth, Sun's Champion, and landing either of my artifacts.

Any of these plays would have spelled the end for him, but after they all failed, it was his lack of a Sphinx's Revelation that allowed me to run him out of cards and finish him off just before time was called.

Games 2-1
Record 2-1

[cardimage cardname='Sphinx's Revelation'][cardimage cardname='Prophetic Flamespeaker']

Round 4 – R/u Devotion

If you have played against any red devotion deck, then you know almost all the cards in my opponents deck. Some cards you may not know are a couple Cyclonic Rifts, one Keranos, God of Storms, and the new and amazing Prophetic Flamespeaker. Other than those cards, this deck was fairly typical.

With my opponent on the play in game one and me not seeing Frostburn Weird to block or Tidebinder Mage to lock his guys down, I had a hard time stabilizing. My opponent probably did not need the Fanatic of Mogis to finish me off but it sped up his clock a full turn and gave me less time to try and draw Master of Waves.

The second game was much closer but it was one where my opponent never really got his game plan off the ground. He played some creatures and I played three of my two-drops against the best deck to have them in play. Sure I drew other threats as well as Domestication to end the game quickly, but it was the two-drops that won the game for me.

The third game was one of the closest I’ve played in quite some time. He had an extremely aggressive start and I had a hard time finding lands to cast my spells. I kept a nearly perfect one-land hand on the draw and missed hitting my land a number of times. Gradually I did hit my land drops but they were never in a row. After I found my second land, I had to wait a couple turns to find the third and then the fourth.

My opponent lost a turn playing Hammer of Purphoros, but it provided additional pressure in future turns. Once I finally hit my fourth land drop I had two Master of Waves to play two turns in a row but I was at two life for a those turns so I was biting my nails in anticipation. After a bit of stress and as tight play as I’ve ever played in my life, I squeaked out an epic win.

Games 2-1
Record 3-1

Overall, I loved the deck and it held up against the strongest competition. I would feel comfortable battling with this deck at any major tournaments. If anyone else is having success with this deck, I would love to hear about it in the comments.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force of the Waves!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Pro Tour Journey Into Nyx Prep

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When I wrote last week’s article about Block, somehow in my head I thought the Pro Tour was still a few weeks off. As it turns out, it’s happening this very weekend!

There are several noteworthy things about this event in particular, Pro Tour Journey Into Nyx, worth discussing, so I’m just going to dive right in.

Decks

Journey Into Nyx finally hit Magic Online this week, and a few things are certain. First off, Elspeth is still insane. Secondly, we’re not going to see any breakout decks show up in Magic Online lists before the event starts. All the pros are huddled in their secret houses pounding out the newest decks, and it’s not likely we’ll see those results on Magic Online before everything breaks loose tomorrow.

That said, we can find a few gems. First of all, Prophetic Flamespeaker has found a home in Mono-Red as a four-of. I’m not positive how much of the deck’s success is tied to its power compared to its accessibility on Magic Online, but Flamespeaker features as a prominent four-of in a couple of the rare 4-0 lists we have access to.

Sitting at $7 or so right now, it’s too high for me to really like a buy-in, but if Mono-Red does well this weekend there’s no reason this wouldn’t spike to $20. If you’re a believer in the deck this is your target. The only other noteworthy card from the deck is Eidolon of the Great Revel, which is less widespread but still present.

That said, I have a hard time believing the pros would sleeve up Mono-Red, and it’s not usually a random PTQ grinder from Montana who makes cards spike. It’s Channel Fireball or Star City (or I guess just Channel Fireball in terms of teams right now), so paying attention to what they’re playing early in the tournament is the best indicator of success.

Another play that seems to have remained popular is the turn four Gild into the turn five Elspeth, Sun's Champion. Elspeth probably has some upside heading into next season, but it’s from the most widely-opened set in Magic’s history and is already pricey. So, while there could be money to be made, I’m more inclined to look at something like Gild or Silence the Believers.

This thing is a bulk rare, and it’s not Mana Bloom. It’s a card that has some long-term demand built in (I mentioned it in my casual targets article a few weeks back due to the unconditional exile clause), and it will probably have some Standard appeal after rotation.

In a smaller card pool, unconditional removal into the best planeswalker in the format is hard to beat. This is a card I can see hitting a few bucks and allowing you to turn your 15-cent buy-in into a dollar on a buylist. Very low risk here.

Mono-Black

As expected, Mono-Black is still very good. I’m sure that will surprise no one, but this might: Master of the Feast is only showing up in a small percentage of these decks, and Agent of the Fates is in all of them.

It’s a small body of evidence, to be sure, but it definitely points us in the direction of Master dropping while Herald of Torment (a card we’ve already made money on) and Agent seem to be taking care of the three-drop spot. Agent is also bulk right now, which along with Herald I still like.

Location

That’s what we know about the format, and while I’m sure plenty will change in the next week, it’s a good place to start and probably your last chance to get in reasonably cheaply on the cards you believe are worth speculating on.

Because one thing we know is that cards won’t last long, at least in the United States. The event is being hosted in Atlanta and streamed worldwide. It’s not like the window for card purchases has been overly large lately, but I can guarantee you that it’s going to be nonexistent when the Magic players in the States don’t have to stay up until 4 a.m. to watch the event. We’re going to know what’s what at the peak of the day, and cards are going to move fast.

Our loss is your gain, rest of the world. I know markets already tend to move a little more slowly in Europe and elsewhere, and this will be even more of that since I imagine this event will be ungodly hours for you guys. So, by all means, take advantage of it.

Precursor, Not a Preview

Alliteration aside, remember that Block is not the same as next year’s Standard. If it were, green-white would have dominated this season instead of mono-black and mono-blue. While this Pro Tour is definitely a sign of things to come in next year’s Standard, it’s only a sign. I don’t remember Wolfir Silverheart dominating Standard even though it wrecked at the Pro Tour.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made, especially in the immediate aftermath. But when it comes to next year’s Standard, I think it’s much more important to look at archetypes and power levels rather than individual card choices.

Something like Elspeth is going to find a home next year because she’s so powerful, regardless of what shell it’s in. Similarly Mono-Black will be a deck next year, even if something like Agent of the Fates doesn’t make the cut. That’s why it’s so important to actually watch and play with these decks rather than just look at decklists, because unless you do it’s a lot more difficult to know what is a core card and what is a role player or curve-filler.

Then again, sometimes it’s best to just forget all that and enjoy the show. After all, there’s a lot you can learn if you stop looking ahead and start looking around.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Wizards of the Coast sues Cryptozoic

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I know these articles are usually more about fun new Standard brews or lighthearted stories, today I want to talk about something both more and less important at the same time.

Wizards of the Coast is suing Cryptozoic, the creators of Hex, for copyright infringement. 

Lawsuits are not what we are typically concerned about as Magic players (nor should we be), but it is vitally important to the health of the game as a whole that its intellectual property is protected. I know people are all over the place on the spectrum of whether or not Wizards has a case here, but looking over the specific complaint, it's hard not to see Wizards' point. When cards function basically the same way and even names are lifted nearly directed from their inspiration in Magic (Lifelink vs. Lifedrain, really?), you see where WOTC is coming from.

I'm going to picture Hasbro's lawyers looking exactly like this.
I'm going to picture Hasbro's lawyers looking exactly like this.

I know people like to say stuff like "$100 fetches are going to kill Magic!" but the reality is that stuff outside of players' control is more likely to do the deed. I haven't played Hex, but I do play Hearthstone, and while it's not as good as Magic in terms of gameplay it's a heck of a lot more accessible online, and that goes a long way. Wizards definitely can't stop all other cards games from coming out (nor do they want to), but it does seem entirely fair that they don't want something that copies nearly directly from Magic to be out on the streets. And make no mistake, Hex seems more like a port of Magic than an aesthetically-similar game (Giant Growth was renamed to Wild Growth and does the same effect for the same mana cost, for instance).

Of course, I'm obviously not a lawyer, so when I say "Wizards has a case" I mean in the common-sense sort of way moreso than the legal way. It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out. Any predictions or insight into this one?

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Conspiracy Spoiler – Marchesa the Black Rose

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Great googily moogily. This card is solid. Sol. Lid.

Dethrone is a very, very cool ability. It is quite powerful, but it also requires you to play suboptimally if you want the payoff. If you can make Marchesa indestructible with something like Darksteel Plate, you can wrath with abandon (well, you can Damnation with abandon, anyway) and get the dudes that survived combat back, untapped. Sweet deal.

This wants to go in a deck with a lot of creatures but also a lot of control elements and I think Grixis is a good combination for that. This puts counters on Thraximundar, Deathbringer Thoctar and even Sage of Hours. This does work. Having to attack the player doing the best and not finish off someone weaker is an interesting twist, and if you do that well the person who needs dethroned may change. If you do it too well, the person who needs a dethronin' may be you, and you can't get triggers anymore. I love the nuances that this card brings out in multiplayer games. This will be fun in draft, it's a cool general for EDH and I am liking Conspiracy so far.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Conspiracy Spoilers – Selvala, Explorer Returned and Tyrant’s Choice

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Spoiler season again?

I have two cards for you today, and one of them is interesting.

This seems like a very powerful general but with serious liabilities. Drawing all of your opponents cards is a risky way to win games of Magic. Still, the mana you're going to generate is going to help you power out some serious spells early in the game. It's been said that the biggest problem surrounding EDH is mana ramp. Deadeye Navigator living to ruin another day while Sylvan Primordial having its kneecaps broken by the banhammer would seem to bear that out. This is fair mana generation - maybe a little too fair. The life you get is fine, and maybe drawing your opponents cards will make them like you and not want to murder you with monsters. All in all, this is maybe a tenth as good as Breigo, King of Eternity.

 

This is pretty solid at common. It's interesting that you get a vote for death or torture but are completely unaffected by the results. Magister of Worth is a little more symmetrical than this is. I don't know if a universal Browbeat is all that good; I am vehemently against Browbeat effects. Still, if they are between a rock and a hard place, in a four player game, you'll need only one person to side with you to get the effect you want. I don't see first-picking this, but it at the least encourages some interesting table dynamics.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: The Art of Sideboarding

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As I touched on last week, I'm not huge on sideboard guides that treat the process as a science. I have a lot of reasons for believing this, even though I will admit that a strong argument can be made in certain situations that one route is the de facto "best" sideboard strategy.

That said, a lot of strange things can happen in a match of Magic, and being able to sideboard well in oddball scenarios has a lot more upside than being familiar with how to sideboard against carbon copies of last week's tech. For the purpose of this article, I'm going to highlight some of these strange things, and some insight on the question "What do I do when...?"

I Really Don't Know What My Opponent is Playing

This one doesn't happen too often in Standard, but that's not to say that it doesn't. If you've spent any time in the Modern queues on Magic Online or if you've played even a single match of Legacy, then you've had this feeling.

Sometimes it's because they mulligan, sometimes it's because they draw a lot of one-ofs in their deck that otherwise operates differently, and sometimes they just don't draw cards that do much of anything.

Recently I played a match of Legacy where I scooped on turn one of game one. I was on this hand on the draw:

My opponent's turn one looked like this:

He named Brainstorm.

Being left with three lands and a Stifle my opponent knew about didn't seem like a winning proposition, so I packed them up before revealing and moved on to game two. The only issue was figuring out how to sideboard.

Cabal Therapy doesn't show up in a ton of decks, and many of the decks that do play it aren't going to have Verdant Catacombs and basic Swamp. A Storm or Esper deck would likely play a different fetchland, and a Young Pyromancer is unlikely to even include either of those lands. This turn one line screams Nic Fit--that and I had seen my opponent playing that deck before.

I sideboarded the way that I would against Nic Fit, but my opponent's sideboard decisions were a bit tougher. Let's take a look at a sample Nic Fit 75:

"B4nn3D21's Nic Fit"

creatures

3 Veteran Explorer
2 Deathrite Shaman
2 Eternal Witness
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Thragtusk
1 Broodmate Dragon
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Primeval Titan
1 Huntmaster of the Fells

spells

4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
3 Punishing Fire
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Diabolic Edict
3 Pernicious Deed
3 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter

lands

4 Grove of the Burnwillows
3 Forest
2 Verdant Catacombs
2 Swamp
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Bayou
1 Badlands
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Mountain
1 Phyrexian Tower
1 Taiga
1 Volrath's Stronghold

sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
2 Slaughter Games
3 Pyroblast
2 Golgari Charm
3 Carpet of Flowers
2 Thoughtseize

It's hard for me to think about a Nic Fit decklists without wondering Why am I playing any of this nonsense?, but I'm going to try and be objective:

I cast Cabal Therapy naming Brainstorm against seven cards. I would say that it's extremely likely our Cabal Ritual was hitting at least two Brainstorms, as it's hard to imagine anybody scooping to a Cabal Therapy that was hitting one card... or missing entirely. Unfortunately I don't have a sideboard guide for "how to beat Brainstorm decks", so I need to speculate on what those other cards might be.

Given this small amount of information, I think that the best we can do is try to determine if our opponent is on a fair deck or a combo deck. A fair deck is generally going to struggle more than a combo deck in the face of discarding 2-4 cards on turn one, so I'd be inclined to believe, if not be entirely certain, that the opponent is on some kind of fair deck.

Most combo decks in Legacy that feature Brainstorm will be able to wait it out and try to draw out of being hit hard by a Cabal Therapy. I would think that a two card combo deck like Sneak and Show would certainly stick it out. Alternatively, a deck like Storm is going to want to have more cards in hand to actually win a game, so it's possible that the opponent is on Storm.

More important than the possibility of Storm is the fact that Nic Fit tends to have good matchups against fair decks, while it struggles against Combo. Even though the opponent is unlikely to be on a number of the combo decks in the format, those are still the decks that we really don't want to be sideboarded incorrectly against for game two.

Of course, given the contents of the sideboard here, it's tough to sideboard completely against a given combo deck. Surgical Extraction and Slaughter Games aren't going to excel against every combo deck, though they are going to be part of your game plan against most combo decks. It would be outright embarrassing to bring in those cards just to have the opponent play a Stoneforge Mystic or Delver of Secrets though.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Slaughter Games

Ultimately, the decision is going to hinge on how good your odds are of beating a fair deck game three on the play or how much Surgical and Slaughter Games help you on the draw in game two against combo decks. It seems to me that Slaughter Games is very commonly going to be too slow on the draw, so I'd probably leave them on the side.

I would confidently bring in the Thoughtseizes as they're unlikely to be terrible, and maybe some number of Surgical Extractions just to hedge a little against combo without impacting my game too much against anything else. The most important thing here is not to overboard given minimal information and punt a game that could have been won by sideboarding more minimally. You could always mulligan yourself out of game three, so playing it safe in game two is wise.

I would also assume that the Carpet of Flowers come in against a large number of Brainstorm decks, and I'd bring in some or all of them based on the general plan with the card, which I'll admit I'm unsure of.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Carpet of Flowers

This is a rather long-winded and somewhat unclear answer to the question of how to sideboard in this situation, but in this answer I addressed a number of questions, the answers to which I find considerably more useful than a list of Ins and Outs:

  1. What kind of deck would concede in this type of situation?
  2. How do I fare against decks X, Y and Z, which contain the cards I have confirmed my opponent is playing?
  3. If I bring in the package that is best against the worst possible scenario, how much does this impact my win percentage if that scenario turns out to be false?
  4. Is it worth bringing in a card that is necessary in certain matchups if it will be particularly terrible on the draw if I misboarded?
  5. What are my sideboard options that will be fine against any deck?

And all of these questions in mind, it's always important to consider the possibility of just not sideboarding. When my sideboard contains cards that are going to be more or less live anywhere, I wouldn't just not sideboard, but if I'm really not sure what to do, I would avoid giving myself the opportunity to just plain mess up.

My Role in the Matchup is Impacted by Which Player Goes First

This is an area I believe many players neglect to address in their sideboarding plans. As somebody who plays tempo decks frequently, it's very important for me to identify all of the relevant differences between being on the draw, playing the game a turn behind, versus playing first and setting the pace for the game.

A card that fluctuates a lot in power level depending on whether you're playing first or drawing first is Daze.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Daze

Some people are more aggressive about boarding their Dazes out on the draw than I am, but I will almost always do so against Noble Heirarch decks and Elves. Mana accelerators just make it too easy to play around such soft counters, and bouncing a land on the draw already has its own inherent risks.

That is not to say that Daze is bad against Elves though. When on the play, Daze allows you to basically have another removal spell that is worth wasting on a Llanowar Elves, which you normally wouldn't want to Lightning Bolt, as it's easily their lowest impact creature. That said, throwing a Daze at their turn one Elf is a perfectly acceptable play because it really slows down their ability to get off the ground.

Mana Leak is often on my roster of cards to keep in mind on the play versus on the draw, as it's a much worse card for catching up than it is for staying ahead. In Standard Boros Burn I tend to leave in Ash Zealot on the play against anything and board it out on the draw against most things, as it can almost always connect on the play while is frequently too slow on the draw.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ash Zealot

This element of sideboarding is likely ignored in no small part to the ability to dismiss nearly any matchup as simply being worse when you're on the draw, but sometimes something as simple as finding a way to lower your mana curve can make a world of difference.

My Opponent's Deck is Certainly Not Stock

Sometimes changing one or two cards in a deck can make a world of difference. Ravnica-Theros Standard has generated a number of different red decks. There's dedicated Nykthos, dedicated Mutavault and everywhere between. When the occasional opponent decides to play Firedrinker Satyr, Searing Spear and Fanatic of Mogis, it can be difficult to discern exactly what angle they're attacking from.

When playing against these red decks with Black Devotion, you have pretty clear gameplans against both extremes. Against Devotion your removal is gas, and against Burn Duress is an all-star. If you have access to Staff of the Death Magus, then it will be good against any aggressive flavor of red, but how clear cut is the decision to bring in Duress?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Duress

You're going to hit most of the time against Burn and miss most of the time against Devotion and Patrick Sullivan Red. What if the opponent has a heavy saturation of creatures but also has access to Searing Blood, Chained to the Rocks and Boros Charm? Your sideboard guide will be helpful for stock lists and extremely linear decks, but it takes adaptability and the ability to think on the fly to sideboard well against anything off-color or featuring new technology.

When sideboarding cards that are specific hosers, it's very important to take note of tweaks to the opponent's deck that might mitigate the impact of those hosers.

If I have Blood Moon in my sideboard but I notice that my 3-color opponent has access to what looks like an above-average number of fetches and basics, is it wise to bring it in? Is Snapcaster Mage plus one other graveyard interaction enough to bring in graveyard hate? How many targeted spells do I need to see from my opponent to make me want Leyline of Sanctity?

Don't put yourself in this situation.

Blood Moon

My Opponent Has a Transformational Sideboard

Transformational sideboards are nothing new, and the entire idea behind them is to try to make you sideboard incorrectly against them. That said, there's usually some evidence that things are amiss during game one when you play against these decks. This example is a little dated, but let's take a look at a James Zornes' Storm deck from Modern two years ago:

Twin Storm

spells

3 Pyretic Ritual
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Gifts Ungiven
4 Manamorphose
4 Remand
4 Seething Song
2 Grapeshot
2 Past in Flames
3 Empty the Warrens
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions

lands

2 Island
2 Mountain
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Steam Vents
3 Halimar Depths
3 Shivan Reef
4 Sulfur Falls
4 Scalding Tarn

sideboard

1 Noxious Revival
2 Mana Leak
4 Deceiver Exarch
4 Splinter Twin
3 Pestermite
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

The idea here was that cards that are good against Storm combo aren't necessarily good against Twin combo. Specifically, you would bank on your opponent boarding out their Terminates and Path to Exiles with this deck and then leave them guessing and trying to hedge for game three--if there even was a game three.

While I can't imagine figuring out the plan before I saw my opponent actually execute it if I wasn't already aware of the tech at play here, there are some notable differences from the stock lists of the time that made it clear that this was the build of Storm that a given opponent was playing. Specifically, if they seemed like they were playing a lot of lands and showed you a Gifts Ungiven, they were probably up to something sneaky with their sideboard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifts Ungiven

While you can't ever really know which combo will be in for game two or three, being able to sideboard against decks like this is still very important. You could just go all-in against one of the combos and hope to guess right, but I find that your best bet is to play as much overlapping hate as possible. Thoughtseize is great, but Path to Exile is iffy.

One thing to keep in mind is that if you're aware of the transformational sideboard, you can generally assume that they're going to make the switch for game two. They probably wouldn't be bothering with the transformational sideboard at all if they didn't think that you were going to screw up and board your removal out, so unless you have reason to believe that they know that you know, I would err on the side of thinking that they're just going to pull the trigger in the dark.

Then for game three I would recommend playing all of your overlapping hate and only a couple copies of cards that are good against only one of the combos. It feels silly to die to Pestermite while two of your Terminates are in your sideboard, but you have a better chance in those games than ones in which you draw four Terminates while getting Grapeshoted.

While it's not a true transformational sideboard, a good example of a deck that can significantly change its nature between games is Patrick Dickmann's Tarmotwin:

Tarmotwin

creatures

3 Deceiver Exarch
3 Pestermite
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Tarmogoyf

spells

2 Cryptic Command
1 Electrolyze
2 Flame Slash
2 Gitaxian Probe
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Remand
4 Serum Visions
4 Splinter Twin

lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Forest
2 Hinterland Harbor
2 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
2 Sulfur Falls

sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Batterskull
1 Combust
1 Counterflux
1 Dismember
1 Dispel
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Nature's Claim
1 Negate
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Spellskite
1 Sword of Feast and Famine

Dickmann reported at Pro Tour Born of the Gods that he generally boards out of the combo and just plays as a tempo deck for sideboarded games. This is less extreme than the Storm example, but it still matters for some sideboard decisions. Notably, Spellskite is considerably stronger against Izzet Twin than Tarmotwin for this reason.

This deck is one of the primary reasons I choose to sideboard Dismember in Izzet Delver. Combust is really awesome against Twin combo. It's really useless against Tarmogoyf. The difference in boarding from a creature-based combo deck into a tempo deck might only be subtle in terms of how to interact with the deck, but it absolutely matters.

My Opponent Does Anything With Their Graveyard

The biggest sideboarding mistake I see commonly made is bringing in graveyard hate when it just doesn't matter. A couple weeks back, I saw a Burn player play a Surgical Extraction against his RUG Delver opponent. I really have no idea what would possess a person to do that.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surgical Extraction

While that example is particularly egregious, Surgical Extraction comes in way more often than it should. People really, really like this type of effect with complete disregard for the fact that it's card disadvantage. So, unless you're happy paying two life to mulligan, ask yourself the following questions before bringing in graveyard hate:

  1. What percentage of my opponent's deck revolves around the graveyard?
    • Remember Standard Junk Reanimator? All the graveyard hate in the world wouldn't save you from turn five Thragtusk.
  2. How much does it hurt me if I just let them do their thing with the graveyard?
    • Snapcaster Mage is just one card, and graveyard hate only hits part of it. Life from the Loam is an engine.
  3. How good is my deck sans graveyard hate against their graveyard antics?
    • If you're winning around the time that the first Wurmcoil Engine comes down, do you really care about Academy Ruins?

I strongly recommend trying matchups with graveyard elements with and without graveyard hate. Unless the opposing deck is particularly dedicated, I think that you'll find that you really don't need graveyard hate very often at all.

That said, I have to imagine that a lot of the players bringing in Surgical Extraction all the time are losing a lot because of it but are blinded by the time that it was randomly really sweet and the opponent happened to have two more Ponders in their hand. Some people just like rolling dice I guess.

Just remember that sideboarding is a relevant skill that is worth developing and relying on a guide, without understanding the theory behind it, is merely a crutch. There's also the possibility that no matter how brilliant the person who wrote your guide is, their testing and/or theory may not match up to what you can come up with on your own. At the very least, having two minds battling the problem will most often be better than one.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

Insider: Scouring for the Undervalued

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Welcome back, readers!

Today's article is one that I really enjoyed writing. It took a bit of research and a decent amount of scouring decklists, but I think it'll pay off in the long run. The goal is to find cards that are undervalued right now for one reason or another, for the purposes of buying them up.

I've run articles like this before, and hit some all-stars. Cards I've picked in the past include:

  1. Ensnaring Bridge ($4)
  2. Burning Wish ($5)
  3. Gamble ($5)
  4. Blood Moon ($6)
  5. Cryptic Command ($7.5)
  6. Ancient Tomb ($6)
  7. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite ($15)
  8. Divert ($0.5)

That list isn't just to provide people with confidence--it also forced me to reminisce about why I picked each card to get me in the right mindset. It's important to remain as objective as possible, so I will list the good aspects as well as the bad aspects for each of these potential specs.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Counterbalance

1. Counterbalance - This U/W/x Miracles staple has been stable for the past few years. It has waffled between $6 and $9 or so the entire time Legacy has been popular. It provides a form of card advantage (actually quite rare in Legacy where card selection is more common). Without good instant-speed deck manipulation in Modern it hasn't made a splash there yet, however it does have potential (even blind) so long as the format continues to focus on one- and two-drops.

The printing of Abrupt Decay did put a bit of a damper on this cards growth, but Abrupt Decay's difficult mana requirements do limit the number of decks that can play it. It's also worth noting that Counterbalance does provide two blue devotion.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Lavamancer

2. Grim Lavamancer - This guy often finds himself as a one- or two-of in a few Legacy decks and could find a home in Modern as well. His ability is incredibly powerful.

In decks that don't have the ability to re-use cards in the graveyard (or gain any sort of advantage from them) he has no downside. His creature types of human and wizard are both surprisingly relevant. His recent reprinting in a core set along with his relatively innocuous stint in Standard tricked a lot of people into misinterpreting his power level, especially since creature power level has continued to rise since the days of Torment.

He provides card advantage using a resource some decks have no use for. He can kill Deathrite Shamans, Dark Confidants, and Delver of Secrets along with every creature in Elves and almost everything in Death and Taxes.

The other aspect holding him back (in Modern) is the lack of a lot of good cantrips to fill the yard, although Modern players still get fetchlands. There are no good threshold cards, and with the exception of Snapcaster Mage and Past in Flames, few ways to truly abuse one's own graveyard in Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Meekstone

3. Meekstone - This card is amazing against grindy decks. It's mana cost of one allows a deck to cast it (on the play) before anything but Force of Will can stop it. The fact that it hits 3+ power creatures means that it happens to really hurt Delver of Secrets and Nimble Mongoose, not to mention medium-size or greater Tarmogoyfs.

It's colorless and can be put into a lot of combo decks as a way to turn the opponents creatures into mere "Lightning Bolts". The fact that it's an artifact makes it more difficult to get rid of than a creature.

The only major downside is that the biggest threats in Legacy don't really get held up by it (Griselbrand just draws into another one and Emrakul destroys it and all the other permanents you have). It also hurts that the card is symmetrical so one's deck needs to take it into account (which is often why you'll see it in Elves/Goblins sideboards).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaddock Teeg

4. Gaddock Teeg - This card should be seeing more play in Modern. It is the best hate bear in Modern and a good one in Legacy. In Modern he stops Birthing Pod, Splinter Twin, Ad Nauseam, Past in Flames, Supreme Verdict, Elspeth, and Chord of Calling. There are few Modern decks which he doesn't hinder greatly.

The biggest factor holding him back is that there aren't any strong G/W Modern decks that would want to play him, save Modern Junk. This is one of my favorite type of calls because his power level is known and accepted, but he's just lacking a home. As metagames shift and new sets are released the probability that he finds one increases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bridge from Below

5. Bridge from Below - This is probably the most controversial pick because it's use is solely based on the popularity of Dredge decks. However, this is one of they key cards in the deck that keeps the engine running and it's only had two printings (both of which are quite small compared to today's print run sizes).

Dredge is also one of the pillars of Vintage and the upcoming Vintage Masters release on MTGO will likely raise interest in the format. We've already seen a lot of the Power 9 start to disappear from retailers and the Dredge deck doesn't really require any power (it's the "cheap" top tier Vintage deck).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Unmask

6. Unmask - This card often finds itself in Vintage Dredge, as well as some old Legacy Dredge lists. It provides a powerful effect for no mana and is a great form of disruption. It has one printing (from Mercadian Masques) which wasn't all that popular with the players at the time.

I always look carefully at the "free" spells from Masques block as many of them have found homes in different decks (Daze, Massacre, Misdirection). Again with the increase in interest we expect from Vintage Masters, any Vintage-playable cards that are rare, from older sets, and haven't moved in price in quite a while are worth examining.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Firestorm

7. Firestorm - This card is one of my favorites because it tends to waffle between $10-$20 depending on how popular Dredge is. You may have noticed by now that I feel there are quite a few Dredge cards that are undervalued. Look at Ichorid--it sat at $4-5 for a long time and now it's over $11. I feel the rest of Dredge will catch up since Ichorid doesn't see play in any other deck but has already jumped.

Firestorm does serve as a cheap mass removal spell and/or an uncounterable discard outlet. The downside is that in a format where card advantage is incredibly valuable and difficult to come by, Firestorm comes with a steep cost that many decks can't or don't want to pay.

Should any other graveyard based synergies surface in Magic's future, then this card has a lot of upwards potential, though the power of the dredge mechanic has shown Wizards that they need to be weary of that sort of mechanic (which is why scavenge seems to be quite underpowered).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thorn of Amethyst

8. Thorn of Amethyst - This prison staple was the original Thalia. It is more difficult to remove than Thalia and it's not legendary so you can have multiples in play. The obvious downside is that each copy costs more than the last. It also doesn't provide a clock (like Thalia), but it is colorless so it can be played in multiple decks.

Thalia's existance also means that the decks Thorn is good against (Storm and Belcher) are prepared for this type of affect. It's played in mono-red MUD decks as a way to slow down the previously mentioned combo decks that are too fast. It's often coupled with our next entry...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphere of Resistance

9. Sphere of Resistance - Another prison staple used to fight fast combo decks. The MUD style decks have really fallen out of favor and I feel that their power level is still there. But they will need to evolve into something that can fight the current metagame of high-powered creatures cheated into play and evasive threats backed up by boatloads of protection and mana denial.

Fortunately, until these decks evolve, their staples will continue to remain undervalued and underappreciated and remain great pickups.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Welder

10. Goblin Welder - Hopefully you've noticed a pattern; I like to find cards that were previously key pieces of powerful archetypes that have fallen out of favor. The beauty of Legacy is that while archetypes' power levels wax and wane, the power level of individual cards often continues to go up. Goblin Welder gets better every time an artifact gets printed (how much better heavily depends on the artifact itself.)

Goblin Welder can fit into several archetypes (MUD and Painter Stone decks), providing protection against counterspells by recurring dead artifacts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

11. Engineered Explosives - A colorless Pernicious Deed gives a lot of decks answers to cards they don't normally get answers to. Red-black has a way to remove troublesome enchantments that cost less than two.

It often finds a home in the sideboard of three-color decks as a sweeper that kills almost everything troublesome in the format (for fun try to name 10 permanents that cost more than three and are commonly played in Legacy.)

An Interesting Case for Full-Art Lands

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It's beautiful, right? I know it is.
It's beautiful, right? I know it is.

We all love full-art lands. Whether Unhinged, Unglued or Zendikar are more your style (I actually prefer the latter), full-art lands are sweet. We use them to fill our decks, we use them in Draft and we love to keep big boxes of them at home.

I'm convinced one of the reasons full-art lands are so cool is because they're so rare. In 20 years of Magic, they've been done just three times. This certainly drives a lot of the demand for them. If they became too commonplace, we wouldn't care anymore. Wizards' decision to keep them rare, then, makes sense.

Or does it?

This post makes a very compelling case that full-art lands are better for a variety of reasons besides aesthetics. The idea is that full-art lands help both new and experienced players identify the gamestate better, and for that reason make more sense than regular lands that we're used to.

An excerpt:

The benefits to new players would be enormous if all basic lands were full-art: they wouldinstantly be able to recognize which of their cards were basics. This might be a small thing, but it’s a very, very important one. Acquisition is every bit as important as Wizards keeps telling us it is, and acquisition doesn’t just mean changing marketing strategies. It means changing the game visually to make it look better and cleaner.
Way back when, Portal came out, introducing the “big mana symbol in text box” look to make the lands stand out more to new players. They then realized that the same concepts applied to the lands in every set, so they made it the default. Now it’s time for the next logical step.
It's definitely an interesting idea. You can read the full post here.
What do you think? Should Full-Art lands become commonplace, or would that kill the coolness of them?
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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: The Great Buylist Data Dump

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Look, I know I probably write too many articles. I've had people tell me it's tough to keep up with everything I contribute podcast- and article-wise every week, and I tend to agree. I like writing and I like that I've had the opportunity to do a lot of it.

One way I've managed to write so much is to keep my subject matter segregated enough that I can avoid repeating myself. Another way? I get inspired because I read a lot.

I imagine you read articles every day and I do, too. There is a lot of free, quality content out there to supplement the superlative Insider articles on QS.

Travis Allen at MTG Price has inspired some other pieces I have written and I think he's a snap-follow on Twitter (@wizardbumpin). Before this turns into a "Who to Follow" situation and gets treated like an installment of "Who to Follow" and is accordingly read by no one, I will set my sights on the point I was going to make, but I want to mention someone else who is doing quality work.

Jared Yost (@gildedgoblin) wrote about a topic that is in my purview as someone who writes about buylisting here on QS Insider, so naturally I was all over it. I have a lot of praise for the article, a little criticism and a strong desire to get some discussion started about how to approach data analysis like this in the future.

I may do some of this on my own in this column, so stay turned for future installments where I take my own whack at it. If you haven't read the piece already, I would urge you to do so right now before continuing with this one.

My Take

I am not going to shy away from using the word "criticism" because I think most of the criticism I have is due to the limitations of the technological platform used to scrape the prices. There were a few assumptions that I think can lead to some misinterpretation, but some of the finer points we can pick at are outside the scope of the project.

He says early on that the intention is to look at trends, and while I think some of the trends are misleading and the data set is incomplete in some serious ways, overall the data and the way they are presented are valuable. Let's just dig in and go section by section.

Data Collection Method

This is where I think a lot of the limitations associated with the project arise. The data was collected using MTG Price's Pro Trader tool. It did a good job of scraping the sources it targeted--my issue is with the sites omitted.

I think the most glaring omission is Card Kingdom, a site with which I couldn't be happier. Card Kingdom's buylist is the gold standard as far as I'm concerned. It is one of three sites featured as defaults in Trader Tools which is heavy praise already.

Add to that the anecdote that someone who has been buylisting for subsistence for years, Ryan Bushard, doesn't even use Trader Tools because he's found a faster way to list directly on the Card Kingdom site and doesn't bother listing elsewhere unless Card Kingdom isn't buying the card at all.

In a given buylisting order from me, I'd say 50% of the cards go to Card Kingdom. Leaving them out and including smaller sites like Hotsauce (a fine buylist, don't get me wrong, and I have recommended Adam as someone to sell to at events and in person) is a real limitation of the data set we're going to get.

He controls for some of the variation between buylisting and selling on eBay by calculating a real eBay value that has the 14% eBay and Paypal fees subtracted, but doesn't control for other values like listing fees and shipping fees.

When I buylist 1,000 $1 cards, I pay $8 shipping. When I sell 1,000 cards for $1 each on eBay, my shipping costs approach $300. This makes higher-value cards more attractive on eBay but not lower value ones. This is probably fine in the context of a theoretical exercise, but I feel like this exclusion from consideration leads to conclusions being drawn, specifically in the "% loss" section. I don't mean to jump ahead.

Also, excluding blanks, or cards not purchased by a given buylist, will give a misleading value when prices are averaged. Since the numerators will vary but the denominators will also not be constant, you lack a basis for comparison.

A dealer who pays $80 for Tarmogoyf and buys no other cards will have a modal buylist value of $80, which explains why it appears CCG House is incredibly generous when it comes to buying mythics but in reality, they probably only buy high-value Modern cards.

It's highly unlikely they are paying the most or even close to it, but a misleading mode value graph leads even the author of the article to extrapolate that conclusion. Their median value is exactly the same as the mode value and that tells the tale in my view.

Calculations Explained

Seems fine. I made my point about shipping fees above. This is incredibly tricky to control for, but anyone who does a lot of selling and a lot of buylisting knows these things. If eBay and TCG Player look attractive to you based on this article, look into all that it entails. It's not as simple as graphically comparing the "prices" may suggest, but all that means is that we need to take care when drawing conclusions.

Data Listed By Rarity

Another fine section. Doing both an "All" and a "Non-common" calculation was savvy. I feel like the "Average Loss %" calculation is a little loose when you compare eBay to buylisting, but I think it has a lot of value when you compare different buylists to each other.

So What Does This Tell Us?

image05

I feel like this graph tells quite a lot. Channel Fireball and ABU are clearly outperforming the other buylists by sheer volume of cards accepted. I'd love to see Card Kingdom represented on this graph. It is surprising to see Strikezone offering on so few cards, also.

image02

Briefly, I think it was incorrect to conclude that since CCG House has such a high mode value for mythics that this is a good place to look at unloading mythics. Quite the opposite if you ask me; the mode is nearly identical to the mean, and that indicates a small number of cards being purchased.

If you could scale this value against the number of cards on the buylist (where they are buying the third-fewest out of everyone) you might get a value that could tell us a bit more. I feel like CCG House buys a lot of $7 mythics for $3 and not many others. You really can't tell from this graph either way, so I wouldn't extrapolate anything.

The Money Shot

image00

This graph is what it's all about. Everything else was interesting--this graph is the payoff. The entire project set out to take a look at how much money you're losing selling to various buylists and whether you're better off not losing quite so much selling via a different method.

I don't think commons should be included here, frankly. I think their sale price has too much overhead built into them. Determining the "true" cost of a common is next to impossible.

Even cards that are 4x in popular decks like Pillar of Flame sold for nearly the same amount as a card like Typhoid Rats just because websites aren't going to list commons for sale for a penny. After a certain point, the labor costs don't justify doing the work to sort them.

Commons have a certain amount of "I'm making someone find this for me and I'm going to pay extra and I'm okay with that." This project extends back to the beginning of Modern, but a majority of the cards encompassed by this project are available in booster packs for around $4 each. When you consider that, uncommons are a far more interesting measure given their lack of these limitations.

What I'd Like to See

This graph can tell us a lot about whether we should be buylisting, but the most useful thing would be determining the "cut-off point" where it makes more sense to sell on TCG Player or eBa. This seems to indicate that it's more attractive to sell on eBay or TCG Player than to just buylist, but only as an average.

There is a value where I am not going to buylist a card, which I have to calculate with my gut most times. Trader Tools tells you the spread on a card when you bring it up, and I will snap-buylist cards with a spread under 10%.

If the card is worth around $50-$100, though, at what point does it make sense to just TCG Player a card with a 35% spread?  We want to know the retail value of a card for which your TCG Player or eBay fees, shipping fees, etc., will be completely negated by the percentage above buylist you receive.

Drawing Conclusions

Okay, so I spent three fourths of an article looking up someone else's article's butt with a flashlight. Why did I bother?

I think it was important to me to understand the implications of all this data because I still think it's worth it to buylist cards 90% of the time. I want to make it clear that while the article seems to indicate there are more scenarios where you'd be better off selling on eBay or TCG Player, that paints an incomplete portrait of reality.

Again, this is not a result of carelessness or stupidity on Jared's part--in fact, this is one of the most scientifically-responsible pieces of analysis I've seen lately.

I think that if the analysis could be modified to control for higher shipping costs associated with selling cards piecemeal compared to sending off one big package to a dealer or two, it might paint a different picture. I think the graphs of percentage loss might be a lot closer. I think this was an excellent thought exercise and I really love having data to back up conclusions.

Taking off my scientist's lab coat for a second, there is one big factor that the data can't measure, but it's something intangible and therefore not super scientific.

When you buylist cards, they're gone. I've never sent to a buylist on Trader Tools and had them say "we don't need these cards anymore" so the result of me sending the cards is that they are as good as sold.

You have to wait for cards on eBay and TCG Player to sell. You have to constantly update prices to make sure yours are competitive. Sometimes you won't sell unless you're absolutely the cheapest price on there, adding to your percentage loss. Sometimes cards tank in value as they sit there not selling. You have to go to the post office all the time. You have to stuff envelopes every day.

You have to spend a ton of time listing. When I was selling on eBay hardcore, I got so fast I could list 20 items an hour. There are automated ways to update to eBay--Crystal Commerce is a popular way to update your eBay, Amazon, TCG Player and personal website inventory all at once. That's a $500 initial cost. How much of your percentage loss savings are eaten there?

I'm not saying don't sell on TCG Player--I do. I'm saying that it makes sense to sell a far smaller percentage of cards on TCG Player than you might think based on some of these graphical representations. For me, I think the fact that I send one package to each dealer twice a month or whatever, can jam hundreds of items in Trader Tools per hour, and know how much I am getting and when, makes buylisting the far more attractive option.

This got me thinking about calculating the card value, spread, etc. where it makes more sense to try and sell on TCG Player. If I can come up with a decent algorithm, we could program a useful tool. I'm sure it's been tried, so for now I'm going to keep shooting from the hip in this regard.

I'd like to thank Jared for writing such a compelling article. I'm still going to buylist primarily and I think buylisting is far more attractive than his piece would seem to indicate, but I am really looking forward to the conversation it will generate.  Let's get one started below.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Selling, Trader ToolsTagged , , 8 Comments on Insider: The Great Buylist Data Dump

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Market Watch: Mana Bloom, a Retrospective

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I know some of you are familiar with the Market Watch series I've been doing on www.empeopled.com, but for those of you who may not be, each week I try to look at one particular card and break it down as either a good or bad speculation target. A few weeks ago I wrote about Mana Bloom, a card many were excited about speculating on, and detailed why I wasn't a fan of the move.

So I wanted this week to look back at how it would have worked out if you went in on Mana Bloom (spoilers: it wasn't great). So I went a step further. The goal here isn't to figure out if you made money from Mana Bloom if you chose to speculate on it, but rather to evaluate what exactly we're looking for when we do speculate on a near-bulk card like this.

All the hype; None of the results.
All the hype; None of the results.

It was the speculator's dream. A bulk care that all of a sudden was seeing new life and rejuvinated financial prospects. Buy into the next big spike at 20 cents apiece? Sign me up! How could you not make money?

At least, that was the thinking about a month ago as Journey into Nyx was spoiled and everyone became excited about the prospect of "new Enchantress" and Constellation. The buy-in in most cases was under a quarter. This is definitely the type of spec that can hit big and really pay off, and I understand the appeal of that.

I took the cautious route on this one.

You can read the full article here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, Finance, FreeTagged 1 Comment on Market Watch: Mana Bloom, a Retrospective

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Insider: [MTGO] Nine Months of Portfolio Management – Data Analysis

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Today I will expose and analyze some of the data collected during my nine months of portfolio management. Without further wait, here's what happened during these nine months.

The first (last week's) article can be found here: Insider: Nine Months of Portfolio Management–Introduction

Overall Result

First things first, the overall result.

+45.81% was my overall profit in tix after these nine months--pretty much what I excepted at the beginning of the adventure (between 30% and 80%). After the April result, I had expected to finish with a 50% or more profit. However, being "forced" to sell piles of junk in a very limited time in order to close the portfolio dragged the overall percentage down a little bit by the end of April.

Here is the final spread sheet with all the selling prices. The month by month reports are below.

Let's take a closer look at some key figures with some charts and pies.

Performances Distribution

The distribution of all the positions performances, expressed in %:

I highlighted some examples in red. The average performance of these 152 positions is +64.3%, and you see that most ended in a zone between -20% and +80%.

Why this number is different from the +45.81% overall performance? Since all the positions didn't weight the same, i.e. I didn't invest the same amount of Tix in each position, the average of the positions's performance is different from the overall Tix performance. In other words, performances of "small" positions (where I invested only few tix) matters less in the final result than "big" positions (where a lot more tix were invested).

For instance, Burning-Tree Shaman finished with +364.6%, but contributed a very minor part of the total Tix profits, with +5.51 Tix (+0.11% of the total profits). While Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker increased by +46.8% for a +45.98 Tix in profits, about +0.9% of the total profits.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Burning-Tree Shaman
There was an error retrieving a chart for Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Winners and Losers

Another number straight from the results: the percentage of winning and losing positions, and the average % gain and loss within each of these winners and losers:

Overall, primary and secondary portfolios combined, 76.3% (104/152) of the cards I bet on yielded positive returns. From as low as +1.9% to +422.2%. The average performance of the winning positions being +93.2%.

On the other hand, 37 of the positions I invested in, 22.4%, ended up negative. From -4.5% to -87.5% with an average of -30.3%.

Two positions finished exactly where they started.

Another 80/20 rule coincidence? Interestingly or not, the top 20% of my winners are responsible for about 80% of my Tix profits.

Month by Month Progression

Here are the Excel spreadsheets of the portfolio progression month by month. The prices were recorded the first of each month. When I was still holding the cards, their value were estimated based on Goatbots or Mtgotraders prices and were recorded as Current Value. When cards were sold, their selling price defined their value. When only part of the cards of a position was sold, the Current Value was determined by adding the value of the sold cards plus the estimated value of the remaining cards.

You can see now how the different positions evolved and when they were sold and bought for the secondary portfolio. This is a brief overview of what happened during each month.

  • September, October: No action took place during these two first months. I only grew the Quick Flips part of the portfolio.
  • November: After the PT Theros, I started to sell some cards, mainly Chandra, Pyromaster and Archangel of Thune. Quick Flips made a big jump.
  • December: I reinvested part of the sale from the primary portfolio and opened the secondary portfolio. The Quick Flips had a little down, trying to quick flip Theros cards was not a good idea as they inevitably headed down.
  • January, February: More cards from the primary portfolio got sold, and the Secondary Portfolio grew well.
  • March: The PT and the B&R announcement boosted the Secondary Portfolio and I sold some of these positions.
  • April: I sold positions whenever they had a profitable bump and I started selling the some losers that I had in big quantities.
  • End of April: I massively sold everything that was left. Mostly spending hours to close all my losing positions that had not done anything so far.

Data Mining

Not surprisingly, not all the cards got the same fate. And not all the card categories (M14, Modern, Ravnica block or Innistrad block) behaved the same. Let see here if we can draw some conclusions and distinguished patterns based on these results.

Categories Distribution

First, the distribution of the different categories. This pie is slightly biased because not all the positions were held together all the time. For instance, some positions--mostly M14 cards--were sold as soon as October, which allowed me to buy Modern and Innistrad positions.

Anyway, if I take everything into account, here is what it looks like:

With 80 positions, Modern cards constituted the most space of this portfolio. Cards from the Return to Ravnica block represented about a quarter of the total number of positions. And finally, Innistrad block positions and M14 cards accounted for a little bit less than 11% each.

This pie represents the amount of Tix dedicated for each of those categories. Again, some Tix were used twice as the income from October sells were used to fund some Modern and Innistrad positions:

As you see now, the distribution is quiet different. Return to Ravnica and M14 positions got the most Tix, with 2470 Tix and 1937 Tix, respectively--more than 75% of my portfolio combined . Modern cards, which were the most diverse in terms of number of positions, were allocated only about 25% of my money. Innistrad cards only got less that 8% of my total Tix available.

Categories Performances

This brings us now to the performance of these four categories. Did they perform accordingly to their size in my portfolio? Not really.

M14

Despite having ten winning positions and seven losing positions, the M14 cards finished with an average % profit of +59.4% and with a benefit of +905 Tix.

Indeed, to the exception of Kalonian Hydra, the loss from the losing positions was minimal. On the other hand, M14 positions held several big Tix makers with Chandra, Pyromaster, Mutavault, Chandra's Phoenix and Ajani, Caller of the Pride.

Since none of my positions received the same initial Tix investment, the comparison is not quiet fair, but six M14 cards trust the top eight of my Tix makers. I'll discuss core set speculations in a future article, but, particularly in this instance, the core set seems to be one of the most interesting and lucrative types of investments on MTGO.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ajani, Caller of the Pride

Return to Ravnica

At the opposite of M14, the Return to Ravnica positions were a mess.

They have about the same winners/losers ratio as M14, but Ravnica's losers hit hard. Several of them lost more that 50% of their initial value, including my Top losing trio Varolz, the Scar-Striped, Loxodon Smiter and Duskmantle Seer. The percentage performance is a little bit confusing, as it indicates a result of +5.5%. This is due to small positions ending up positive, such as Reap Intellect, but having very little Tix weight.

Overall, the 2470 Tix of Return to Ravnica positions made me lose 107 Tix. Reasons for this failure, and how to solve it, will be discussed in one or two specific articles.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reap Intellect

Modern

As highly anticipated as it was, Modern positions didn't disappoint at all. Almost 90% of these finished on a positive note, and the biggest Modern loser, Figure of Destiny, ended up with "only" -37%. I'm also pretty certain that in one or two more months, all the losing Modern positions at this point in time (end of April) would have been be positive. The time frame of this 9 months portfolio made me sell these cards even though they were losing--a detrimental rule of the game.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Figure of Destiny

Innistrad

Similarly to Modern positions, the Innistrad block positions also performed pretty well. Few losers, a great percentage performance (+75.3%) and 240 Tix gained. A mix of redemption and Modern playability effects, combined with the cheap buy prices in October/November, contributed to the success of these positions. Here again, most of the Innistrad block cards will keep rising in the coming months. Sets rotating out of Standard are definitely worthwhile, if not safe, investments to consider.

Performances According to Cards Cost

There's probably many different ways to breakdown and interpret the data of this experience. Here is a graph comparing the buying prices of my positions and the performance of the corresponding cards:

I kind of like this representation because it makes the point that percentage performance is clearly not equal to Tix performance. It also tells us that depending on your time and the size of your portfolio, you should not necessarily consider all the opportunities available all the time.

  • Here, cards that costed me less than 1 Tix to buy increased by 107% in average, a pretty decent number. With 1965 of these "penny" cards, I netted 501 Tix in profit.
  • Of the cards that were in the 1-5 Tix range when I bought them, 1502 finished with a +46% increase in average. They made me 459 Tix in return. You see that with a % performance that is half of the "penny" cards category, and with roughly 25% less cards involved, I gained slightly less Tix (459).
  • Now it's getting interesting. The 232 cards that had a value of 5 Tix or more when I got them were sold with a 58% profit in average. In terms of Tix, they made me 1043 Tix richer.

Time

To try to make these numbers more practical and to put them in perspective,, let's assume one thing: the time it takes to buy and sell a playset of cards. Let's consider you know when and what card you are going to buy and sell, you have made your research and now you are looking for the best buying prices and--later on--the best selling price.

To estimate that time, I'll take into account a brief research among the different bots (Mtgotraders, Goatboats, MtgoLibrary + classifieds for humans), then the actual transaction, then recording your transaction in your favorite Excel sheet. And finally you have to do the same thing whenever you sell.

For the whole buying and selling process, I estimate that time of about two minutes per playset. Sure you can be faster, but there's also times where it's going to be longer. Prices doesn't match with the price list, you have to go through two or three bots to get your playset, MTGO is lagging, etc... I think two minutes is fair.

With the figures in the chart above, it will take you ~982 minutes, or 16 hours and 20 minutes, to to make 501 Tix with the "penny" cards category. About 30 Tix per hour.

With the same maths, with the "1-5 Tix cards" category you would make about 38 Tix/hour.

Finally, dealing with the ">5 Tix cards" category, you would make more than 500 Tix/hour!

Depending on the size of your bankroll and the time you spend online, these numbers maybe more or less true and accurate. With a small bankroll you can't really deal with high price tag cards, but dealing with cheap cards can grow your bankroll fast as the % return is high. At the opposite, if your bankroll is bigger, dealing with cheap cards for a higher % return is a waste of time, your hourly Tix rate remaining low. You may want to target expensive cards that can yield more Tix in no time, still with a % return lower.

Conclusion

This was a summary of some data extracted from my experiment. Feel free to dig into the raw data and analyse them from new angles.

Choices, mistakes and lessons I made and took from this portfolio will be discussed in articles to come. They will be dedicated to more specific topics and/or cards categories.

Thank you for reading.

Sylvain Lehoux

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