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FREE Insider: I’m Wrong and So Are You – 5 Rules for Avoiding the Prerelease Poison

Posted on by Josh Rayden

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Spoiler season is exciting. There’s no denying it. I’m incredibly excited, mostly because I’m not a huge fan of Standard as it sits today. That excitement leads to some terrible decisions for a lot of people, myself included. That’s what I’m here to talk to you about today.

Think of the following for a moment. You go out to a bar or club with some friends and the social lubricants start flowing. You set your sights on the Scarlett Johansson or George Clooney look-a-like across the room. What are they doing here? Why is no one else trying to get in good with them? Before you know it, you’re talking to someone you think is the hottest thing since sliced bread. It’s closing time and you think you’ve got it made with the cutest thing in the room. You end up going home with said individual and having a grand time.

But then the morning comes. Maybe you’ve been in this situation, maybe you haven’t (I’ve never been interested in a one-night-stand, personally, and now I’m married so I’ll never have this experience, for better or worse), but we all know what happens next. The early morning rays of sunlight fall across your face and drag you from your pleasant dreams only to discover a pounding headache and holes in your memory.

You realize you don’t recognize your surroundings and look around to get your bearings only to discover there is someone in bed next to you. Even a quick glance tells you that you’ve made a grievous error. How did this happen? “What was I thinking?” you ask yourself.

The answer is you weren’t. Not clearly, at least. You were intoxicated.

That’s spoiler season, in a nutshell.

You become intoxicated with the heady mix of shiny, new things and best case scenarios. Instead of a bar or club, your haunt is the rumor mill forum or Twitter, searching for the card that will bring you to the promised land and make all your dreams come true.

You set your sights on the Stoneforge Mystic or Jace, the Mind Sculptor look-a-like that went up on the Mothership on Monday. How could they print that card? Why is no one else seeing how broken that card is? You find that magical connection with a cute little card that’s the hottest thing since sliced Snapcaster. You want it. No, you need it.

You pre-order it as soon as it’s available. Release day comes and the card arrives in the mail soon after.

But then the morning comes. I’d like to think we’ve all, as Magic players, been in this situation. The early season rays of FNM fall across your face and drag you from your pleasant delusion only to discover a pounding headache and holes in your memory.

Okay, so it breaks down here a little bit, but it’s a feeling many of us have had. This card underperforms and you paid a premium for it. A few weeks later and the Planeswalker you pre-ordered for $24.99 is now $12.99. You’ve made a grievous error. How did this happen? “What was I thinking?” you ask yourself.

The answer is, you weren’t. Not clearly, at least. You were intoxicated.

Maybe you think you’re better than this, but look at it in a broader sense. If you’ve ever speculated on a flop or been excited about a card that turned out to be a dud, you know what I’m talking about. If you haven’t had this experience, that’s fantastic.

If you want to make sure you never have this experience, I’m here to try to help. Learn from my mistakes and the mistakes of others. There are a number of rules that will spare you the disappointment and shame of buying into a card you shouldn’t have.

Rule # 1:

Never buy a Planeswalker until well after release unless you know for a fact you will need it for a tournament.

This one is pretty simple, but it seems like people still make this mistake. Everyone wants to catch the next Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but I’m of the opinion that will never happen again. Wizards can’t afford for it to and they know a lot more about Planeswalkers now.

There have been Planeswalkers that you could have sold at a profit if you bought them for their pre-release price, but that window typically only lasts for a week or two, examples being Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas and Liliana of the Veil. Look at their prices now, though. Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas is $9.99. Most Planeswalkers steadily decrease in price from the moment they are spoiled.

Even the most underrated Planeswalker of all time, the one I used as my exemplary $24.99 Planeswalker above, will be at a lower price at some point over the next six months.

Tibalt, the Fiend Blooded is better than people think it is. Is it better than Garruk Relentless? Maybe, but you can pick Garruk Relentless up for under $13.00 right now. It’s just not worth it. Speculating on Planeswalkers, or even just trying to get your set early, is almost always going to be a terrible idea.

Friends don’t let friends pre-order Planeswalkers. Ever.

Rule #2:

Never buy the cards that are getting the most buzz until well after release, if ever.

Cavern of Souls? Are you kidding me? It’s a rare and it’s pre-selling for $24.99.

In the height of its popularity, Reflecting Pool demanded slightly less and that was in a set with no mythic rares. Seachrome Coast is probably the most played non-basic land that has been printed within the last two blocks and it’s $15.99.

The best rares in most sets top out at that price and normally sit in the $15 to $20 range. Those rare are also typically cross-format staples and all-stars. Even if you think Cavern of Souls will see a lot of play, it’s unlikely the price will go up. It’s much safer to hedge your bets and wait.

At worst, you can likely just pay that same price later when you know it’s a sound investment. Don’t get me started on Temporal Mastery. That card is Skaab Ruinator all over again. Skaab Ruinator went up to $30.00 during pre-orders.

Know what it is now? $1.99. Nice card.

Rule #3:

Look at the bigger picture.

Is it a big set? How long will it be the current draft format? Does it have powerful commons and uncommons? What’s the hype surrounding the rares and mythics? If you really want to be thorough, what’s the total price of each rarity?

Obviously all of these impact prices and they might not get the attention they deserve. Prices of cards from Avacyn Restored will likely settle higher than they would for Scars of Mirrodin, due to fewer cards being in circulation. Each set will typically experience an aggregate price ceiling while it is the current product being sold. If the value of the cards in the pack, on average, exceeds the cost of the pack then it creates an odd situation that the market will typically correct on its own over time.

This could mean the price of packs would go up or the price of individual cards would decrease. While in print, typically it’s the latter.

So can the market sustain the aggregate price of the cards as they sit today? For any set prior to release the answer is typically “no”. Avacyn Restored is a set with many hyped up rares and mythics. There’s no way these prices can stay this high. Expect prices to drop precipitously for any card that isn’t an immediate staple over the course of the next year or two. Then we will likely start to see the effect of a smaller supply of singles come to bear and cross-format cards will begin to tick up in price.

Rule #4:

Wait for the data dump.

The day the full visual spoiler arrives is the best day of any spoiler season. You get to see all the pretty pictures for all the sweet new cards and you get to find the cards that will make you money. The cards that are all seen for the first time in a huge clump don’t get the individual attention that the other spoilers get.

The lack of hype and concentration of data means that these cards won’t get the pricing attention they may deserve. These are the cards that are often fine to buy early on. It’s unlikely you’ll lose much money, if any, and you might catch a big break. Speaking of catching a break…

Rule #5:

Find the “sleeper”.

There are almost always a few cards in each set that people aren’t shouting from the rooftops about, but that end up being excellent cards. This is where you can make your money. This may sound difficult, but it really isn’t. The trick is to do your homework. Get on Twitter, follow great players. Read every article.

My last major success in this area was Spellskite. I thought the card looked interesting, but not many people seemed to be talking about it. It’s not a very flashy card. You don’t get to resolve it and win the game, typically. It didn’t have any crazy combo implications when it came out.

It’s the type of card people don’t get excited about.

There were a few people that mentioned it. I believe early on Gerry Thompson thought it would be a strong card. For some reason the price to pre-order Spellskites was on the order of $2.00. Even now that card is sitting at $3.49. If you pre-ordered them you could have easily sold them to a dealer at $5.00 within a month of release. That’s insane profit margin. I know quite a few people that made good money on that card.

You don’t have to find the Tarmogoyfs and Jace, the Mind Sculptors. Find the Spellskites.

There are plenty of hints about those cards for this set. My #1 pick for profit potential from this set is Entreat the Angels. Patrick Chapin likes the card, LSV likes the card. Do you need more evidence? It’s a mythic and it’s easy to get for $6.00 or less. I’ll be shocked if this card doesn’t settle at $10.00 or higher. [Editor's note: At the time of this writing, Entreat was a $6.00 card. It shot up this weekend and is now $18.]

Examples of mythics at $14.99-$15.99: Thrun, the Last Troll, Hero of Bladehold, Karn Liberated, Batterskull. I wouldn’t be surprised if Entreat the Angels saw a level of play similar to these cards. It doesn’t hurt that it’s a good Commander card and makes Angels, which casual players love.

Keep an eye on Zealous Conscripts as well. It was first offered at $.75. Now it’s $1.99. If you bought it right when it was spoiled you more than doubled your money. It may still go up. $3.00-$5.00 seems like a totally reasonable place to hit at some point. Just watch for your window to sell and try to trade for these early at rock bottom prices.

Don’t fall victim to the allure of new things. Unless you’re Patrick Chapin, there’s a good chance you’re mis-evaluating that Temporal Mastery or that Restoration Angel. Be patient and try your best to follow the rules I’ve laid out for you here. I’ve pre-ordered Planeswalkers. I’m not proud of it, but you can learn from my mistakes.

Remember, friends don’t let friends pre-order Planeswalkers. Ever.

Thanks!

-Josh Rayden
-JRDameonHv on Twitter and MTGO

Insider: Even More Modern Calls

Posted on by Douglas Linn

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I'm back again this week, scouring event results for more Modern speculation calls for your trading profit. Why should you care about Modern? Even if you don't play, there is a lot of official support for the format. The Pro Tour for Avacyn Restored features Modern, as do several Grands Prix this year. Modern events fire almost every day on Magic Online, which brings us a steady feed of information. No doubt, pros are looking at these same results and compiling the best decks to bring to the Pro Tour. We've seen double-digit price changes during Pro Tours and I don't think Modern events are any different. It's the perfect time for breakout cards to shine. Let's take a look at a few that I've identified early in the lead-up.

Etched Champion

No surprise here, Etched Champion is a good fit in what we're still calling Affinity these days. I've tested many, many games against Affinity and this is probably their scariest card next to Cranial Plating. To understand why, you've got to know how an Affinity game plays out. They will usually toss out three or four cards on the first turn. Next turn, they'll play a Plating or maybe an Arcbound Ravager. This is predictable because Affinity never keeps hands without something like Plating, Ravager or Steel Overseer. Let's say you took out their initial burst of energy - you had a Maelstrom Pulse for that Plating, you Smothered the Ravager or you Mana Leaked their Overseer. The Affinity deck must now rip off the top and hope that they can get more value out of cards like their manlands. They've got to get their guys in past an increasingly more powerful opponent. If you're playing Twin and drop a Deceiver Exarch, then half their monsters cannot profitably attack you any more. Their clock is basically done.

Etched Champion changes the way the midgame plays out considerably. Affinity can now do at least two damage to you each turn and there's nothing you can really do - it's like they have a mini Progenitus out! You can't even Firespout it away! The metalcraft is laughably easy to achieve and when the deck has it, anything else off the top can be exceedingly dangerous. If they get two Champions out, they can hold one back to block your biggest monster or just race uncontested. If they draw a Steel Overseer, the game is going to be over soon. If it's a Ravager, it's over... sooner. Though some Affinity decks skip out on the card, the ones that consistently place well tend to play 3-4 copies.

Etched Champion is about $2.50 right now. It takes only little action on these to make a big profit. Remember that sometimes, it's not the fanciest deck that wins - it's the most brutally fast one. This is especially the case in Modern, since the rest of the decks are really pretty powered-down.

Volcanic Fallout

If we see more control decks emerging, it will be on the back of this card. The most important part of it is the first line. See, Snapcaster Mage has really done a number on Modern. The RUG Delver decks are really, really good. So good, they won GP: Turin recently. The deck's plan is to use Snapcaster Mage to recycle Mana Leaks while attacking with one or two cheap threats. They can drop a Delver on the first or second turn. You've got Firespout? They've got Spell Pierce. You follow on with a Damnation? They have Snapcaster on that same Spell Pierce. There's no beating the deck with normal sweepers. You've got to stick with things that they cannot interact with.

Volcanic Fallout is like a Sudden Shock that gleefully smashes everything it can for a single red mana more. It sweeps Delvers out of the sky and Snapcasters from the earth. It obliterates Elf armies and takes out timely tokens. The issue in building with Volcanic Fallout is that you really cannot depend on x/2s of your own. This means it's better for Twin decks and slower, more controlling lists. This, and not Damnation, will be what makes Mystical Teachings survive (if it can). With Snapcasters and counterspells so plentiful, racing Delver of Secrets is very hard. This card removes all of the pain.

For some reason, the Melira decks are also very popular on MTGO. These decks try to use Melira, Kitchen Finks and Viscera Seer to make infinite loops. Conveniently, most of the deck lacks big back ends. A common fallout of the Fallout is killing a Viscera Seer, shrinking a Finks and knocking off a Noble Hierarch. Not bad. The Melira deck is another one that depends on an early rush of good spells and crumbles if it has to live off the top of the library.

Volcanic Fallout is currently about 40 cents. I have several playsets at the moment and I suggest that you toss four into the next order that you get online if you've got any interest in Modern. It's a card that went north of two dollars when it was printed - and that was too late to stop Faeries. This could rise again, and it's a really cheap bet to make.

Telemin Performance

In the history of wacky sideboarding techniques, this is a favorite of mine. The idea is this - you're playing an opponent who has U/R Storm. If they aren't sideboarding into Twin, you bring these in. As soon as you hit the five mana needed, you mill them to death. Painless! You can also jam this against Tron players, taking out about 20 cards in their library and snatching an Eldrazi to ram into them, too.

OK, so I don't think it's a great strategy, but for some decks, it's the only strategy. Despite what a lot of people say, R/G Tron (with 4 Karn Liberated) is a really tough match. The deck can naturally hit Tron on turn 3-4 and from there, they play Karn, Liberace and start dismantling your board. While the Performance doesn't beat a Karn, it does give you something good to do against two of the better decks in the format.

This goes for around fifty cents right now. I don't predict it getting higher than $1-2 unless a player uses it, on camera, to kill a person on the Pro Tour. Keep this in mind, though; Bribery is north of $10 and a lot of that is due to early hype in Modern as anti-Cloudpost tech.

Vedalken Shackles

I am hesitant to suggest a card that currently sells for around $13, but I feel like this could be a real Huntmaster-style card. Vedalken Shackles, plainly, is one of the best spells you can be casting for three mana. It is quite strong in RUG Delver decks and makes appearances wherever Islands are present. If you look at the top decks, they rarely have a way to deal with this other than a Cryptic Command. It's cheap enough to protect with Spell Pierces if you have to, and when it hits, everything changes. Now, you don't want to cast that Lingering Souls so badly because Shackles will just grind the tokens out. That Deceiver Exarch needs another friend because an untapped Shackles can stop the Twin combo by stealing the to-be-Twinned creature. I expect a lot of recaps from the Pro Tour will involve someone on the ropes that comes back in with a topdecked Shackles.

On top of its in-game perks, Shackles is also by pros. Conley Woods and David Ochoa both ran Shackles in their decks at the last PT. If LSV doesn't run Tron again, I'd expect to see a few Shackles in his deck. Again, this is not a cheap card by any means, but it's not going anywhere. We see one or two well-placed decks with this in it and it can go up to Thoughtseize or Vendilion Clique levels. This is a card I'd attempt to trade for before I shelled out cash, but it's one I suggest picking up in the near future. The Shackles are both incredibly powerful and also hard to answer.

*     *     *

That wraps up my Modern calls for today. Much of the Modern metagame and tech is already known - I mean, how much profit is there to be made on speculating in RUG Delver cards? However, the fringe cards are always worth a few looks. On a side note, the fact that Time Spiral is being given out as prizes on MTGO makes me think that we are getting nearer to the "Modern Survival Kit," a hypothetical set meant to aid Modern players and confirmed by Aaron Forsythe in some fashion or another. Whether this means we'll see Tarmogoyfs come up in Duel Decks or see a Master's Edition printed that's not legal for Standard, who knows. But the influx of Goyfs onto MTGO seems entirely intentional and I predict that paper magic won't be too far behind.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Insider: Avacyn Restored Prerelease Primer

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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It’s that time again! I’m pretty excited to write this article for a few reasons. The first is that this set looks awesome, and Cavern of Souls is (for now) a card I really like. Angels vs. Demons seems like a cool concept, and I’m particularly interested to see how the sealed environment plays.

The second reason I’m excited to do this primer is that I scored a home run with my Dark Ascension Primer. I called nearly all of the relevant cards from the set and hopefully made us all some money in the process.

For those of you not familiar with how I do set reviews, I start by giving you all a little credit. I don’t go card-by-card through the entire set and waste thousands of words telling you that obviously bulk rares are, in fact, bulk rares. Instead, I try to hit on the cards drawing the most hype as well as those I feel like you need to have on your radar for one reason or another, whether they be sleepers or casual hits and so forth.

I take these reviews very seriously, just as I do reviewing my picks later on. I’ll use Star City Games prices as usual since those are the most likely numbers you’ll hear tossed out on the trade floor.

Let’s jump in.

Cavern of Souls

There are a few things to know about this card. The first is that it is actually insane in any format where people play creatures. It’s that good, and is probably a 4-of in any deck that wants it (which is quite a few).

The second is that everyone inside Wizards of the Coast knows this. That means, while the $22.50 pre-sell price is probably going to actually be correct moving forward (think of a better Inkmoth Nexus), I wouldn’t be surprised to see this pop up in an Event Deck or a Planechase product or two, which will exert some downward pressure on the price.

By the way, this thing is going to be an absolute hit among casual players. Throw in the fact that this set will only be drafted for a few months, and it’s a perfect storm for an absurdly high price tag. Pick your playset up and hold on to them, and demand a premium for any you get past that.

Angels

This set is an Angel Collector’s wet dream. Pretty much every Angel in this set is worth at least stashing away in a box, and the Mythics (Avacyn, Angel of Hope and the three two-color Angels) are going to lead that charge since they have some significance to the story and feel more “epic.” Foil versions of these will be especially expensive even if none of the Angels see any play.

Divine Deflection

This is pre-selling for a dollar, and if Red decks become a Real Thing in Standard, there’s a lot to like here. This prevents a big Shrine hit or other things along those lines and even doubles as a removal spell.

Entreat the Angels

LSV says this is huge in Esper, and I can’t imagine he’s wrong. Most importantly, it’s a Mythic so the upside is going to be there, especially in the first few weeks of the set being released. It's $6 right now, and a spike to over $10 is not going to be at all surprising if it shows up at the first tournament post-release.

Restoration Angel

People have been talking about this, and I think it’s going to live up to the hype. It’s at $5 and it’s the release promo, so that will hold the price down. That said, I think this is a pretty safe target during the prerelease weekend, especially if you can get value on the regular one by the fact that there will be fancy prerelease copy easily available.

Temporal Mastery

I called this Time Reversal 2.0 on the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery. As we discussed on the cast, that’s not quite true, since EDH players will want this and it’s actually somewhat playable across formats. But with Mastery selling at $40 right now, it’s an apt comparison.

When all is said and done, this is probably $8-14. It may take a while to fall to that point, but if you don’t think it will get there, here’s a little story from testing. I’m playing RG Werewolves because it’s fun, and my opponent is playing stock Delver with a playset of Masteries. He proceeded to Miracle cast all four Masteries against me, taking four extra turns and doing his thing with Delvers.

I won that game.

Favorable Winds

Better than Honor of the Pure in Lingering Souls decks? Grab foils for free at the prerelease, since you never know.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

Preselling at $40 on SCG, which feels high to me. I think this card is pretty solid, but its place in the upcoming metagame is still a little unclear. Does this play well with Gideon? Can your deck handle two five-mana Planeswalkers? These are questions I legitimately don’t know, but I think it’s safe to say Tamiyo will be $18-25 in a few months.

Appetite for Brains

I’m not sure if this is better than Despise or not. If you figure you need to be nabbing Titans, I think Despise is better because you can also hit Planeswalkers, whereas the Hungry Zombies only hit the Titans and miss basically any other threat. Still, grab the foils if you can.

Exquisite Blood

Take a look at the card text of Sanguine Bond, since I assume you need to read it. Then look up its price. Spoiler: it’s a solid $5 anywhere, and that’s clearly only driven by casual players. Safe to say the same players will want this thing. Perfect throw-in target over the next six months to put away for a year or two.

Griselbrand

$10 presale. This is high, but it will be a solid pickup once it drops. It’s a huge EDH and possibly Legacy card, and foils of this ($35) on SCG should be your target.

Killing Wave

I initially liked this in UB Zombies, but further testing has been disappointing. It’s selling at $2.50, and I don’t think you need to move on this. It may take a little time to find the build and that’s not guaranteed to happen, so I’d stay away. This card feels like a trap in the current incarnations of Zombies, so I’d hold off for now.

Treacherous Pit-Dweller

Torpor Orb, here we come! Just joking, this card is bad, don’t move on this. It’s only a dollar right now, and that’s probably where it’ll stay forever.

Pillar of Flame

Foils of this are the way to go. It answers Gravecrawlers and Messengers permanently on the cheap.

Vexing Devil

$15 is way too high. Think Goblin Guide. Like the Guide, it will have a place in Standard and probably find a home in Legacy. Unlike the Guide, it has to compete against Timely Reinforcements. Guide was $6-8 for its life in Standard, and this won’t be higher.

Zealous Conscripts

Probably the most underpriced card in the set at a dollar on SCG, and the only one I would even think about buying for cash. Get in on this thing this weekend; it’s going to be in Standard. This thing will easily fit into Red decks and, more likely, will be huge in RG Ramp mirrors. $4-6 is not at all out of the question.

Grab these all weekend, and you won’t regret it. It represents nine points of damage at least with a Primeval Titan or 12 with an Inferno Titan. Probably going to be the most important card in the mirror, and I’ll be stocking up.

Champion of Lambholt

I like this card, but I have to imagine a world where Slagstorm is back with a vengeance, and I don’t love him in that metagame. Worth keeping an eye on but probably not moving on. It’s a buck fifty, and that seems more or less correct.

Triumph of Ferocity

I see this card mentioned a lot. I guess people really want to draw cards in Green.

Ulvenwald Tracker

I  like this thing, especially once Titans are out of the metagame. It’s a very imposing one-drop, and worth grabbing early. It’s $2 on SCG, and while I’m not sure how much upside there is at this point, I think it will trade hot on the floor once the metagame reaches a point where it’s good, which I believe will happen sooner or later.

Sigarda, Host of Herons

The power level on this card is definitely there. Once again, like everything else in the upcoming metagame, I feel like we’re back to the Titan test, which it fails.

That said, the power level on this card is insane, and there will definitely be a time when it makes its impact on the metagame. It’s pre-selling at $15, but chances are it will look something like Huntmaster of the Fells, where it dips below $10 and then spikes when it hits, even if we have to wait a while for that to happen.

---

I think that covers the important cards. If I were to call anything a sleeper in the set, it would be Zealous Conscripts, and it’s a very easy target to pick up this weekend. The usual Prerelease rules apply wherein you generally will want to trade your new cards away for more stable, older things before prices come down while at the same time targeting low-risk cards like the Conscripts.

Good luck at your Prerelease, and I hope you all enjoy whatever comes out of the Helvault!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: The Cavernous Future

Posted on by Chad Havas

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I had intended on hitting on some of the Rares previewed this week, but I’ve decided there’s more pressing information to share with you all. When I was first starting out at Quiet Speculation, my first Spoiler season was almost exactly one year ago, when we got Mental Misstep. Immediately internet buzz was polarized, but I got down to brass tacks and isolated Legacy cards that stood to gain or lose as a result. Many of you, who picked up Candelabras from an even earlier tip from QS, were able to get out before prices plummeted by about 50% (over $100). After more consideration from last weeks first glance at Cavern of Souls, I want to look at Legacy again and see what impact this will have on that format and what we can do to make some gains.

Cavern of Souls does two things (mana fixing and countermagic protection) and it does them both well. Not only that, but the opportunity cost of running them is fairly minimal. So we can expect that this card will certainly shake up almost every format that exists. Even naming Golem and protecting a Lodestone Golem from a Force of Will in Vintage is extremely relevant, without considering the color fixing at all. Zac Hill, Former Pro-Tour T8'er and R&D Devloper, wrote an article about the card last week, in which he said about Cavern of Souls, "We expect it to define almost every format in which it can be played." Let's redefine our valuations then.

What cards stand to lose here?

Cards that lose are narrow countermagic, especially ones that tend to counter creatures. The card I expect to plummet here is Spell Snare. While many of Spell Snare’s targets are instants and sorceries, a large majority are creatures in both Legacy and Modern. While I don’t expect Spell Snareto disappear, its role is just going to change. It’s no longer going to be a hard stop-gap against cards like Tarmogoyfand Dark Confidant, but will continue to prey on counterspells itself. It will protect your Planeswalkers and Sorceries from Counterspell and Remand.

Spell Snare is currently an $8 card, but only a year ago, before Modern’s rise, it sat at $2 for a very long time, despite its appearance in Legacy. This card is going to fall like a stone. I’m selling out of my personal set, and I’ll buy them back later. Remember, selling now at $8, and buying back at $2 is a /real/ profit of $6. You still have your Spell Snares, and $6 in your pocket.

Another card that stands to lose playability is Daze. Daze is most frequently used to combat other counterspells once you’ve tapped out for your threat. If your threat is uncoutnerable, thanks to Cavern, the need for Daze diminishes. While I don’t expect the price on Daze to change much, I also expect it to start seeing a lot less play.

What cards stand to gain here?

Decks that can ignore their opponents creatures stand to gain a lot. If the quantity of countermagic people play really does decrease, Combination Decks stand to gain the most, and not even just the Force of Will Combo decks (but yes, them too). Spanish Inquizition, Ad Nauseum- Tendrils, Show and Tell (all varieties) and High Tide will run rampant if Creature Decks become overly common. This means all the appropriate combo pieces stand to gain.

That includes, but is not limited to, Lion's Eye Diamond and Chrome Mox. Those two specifically are strong buy’s in my opinion. Chrome Mox is currently only $10, but has seen heights of $15 historically, and I’m looking to pick up a quick $5/card on this one. Lion’s Eye Diamond on the other hand is at its historical high, after bouncing between $30-40 over the past year. I don’t expect it to shoot up much higher, but it does belong in both versions of Tendrils, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it hit $50. I’m not suggesting a big move on the Diamond, but Chrome Mox is worth sinking some money into.

Other cards that stand to gain take advantage of reliance on the Cavern. Wasteland, which already slots into every Control and Tempo deck (or a deck that has land tutors) will be at a premium. In aggro-control mirrors, like Merfolk, nuking your opponents Cavern so you can counter their Lord of Atlantis is no joke. Keep in mind, that most decks like this, also have Aether Vial to sneak guys in through countermagic anyway. Wasteland has hit peaks of $50, but currently sits at $35. This will likely stabilize closer to $40, and that may or may not have anything to do with the Cavern.

Last group of cards I want to talk about is strategies that actually move up the list in playability as a result of this land. The two that come to mind are Goblins and Slivers. Yeah, I said Slivers. Slivers has always been a poor strategy, but there are always people who play it, without them having to worry about their dudes being countered, you may start to see more of this Tier 2 deck floating around.

Goblins on the other hand, has already been making a resurgance, and this is just the icing on the cake. Making Goblin Lackey uncounterable on Turn 1 is no joke. Lackey, which has bounced between $7-10 is currently at the lowest end of that range and is prime pickings for a spike. The same can be said for Siege-Gang Commander which can be found around $1, and has proven to have the capability to bounce back to $2 multiple times in the past.

So there’s some shifting to be done of our evaluations. These are the most clear winners/losers as a result of this card, but there has to be more. You can always Next Level this, and it’s important to do so to stay ahead of the game. Just don’t get so far ahead that it takes the market too long to catch up to you.

For example, if the Legacy metagame shifts as I’ve suggested, we may see a traditional U/B control deck reappear that uses things like Duress and Thoughtseize to control their opponents options in combination with a counter suite and Wastelands to pick away Caverns. A deck like this probably also has Crucible of Worlds in the Sideboard at a minimum.

I don’t want to jump on cards like this until we see the first stage actually occur. We just want to know what moves to make when it happens so we can maximize our gains without having to hold on to these cards for ages.

What are other Next Level moves are there that will result after the initial shifts? Are there any other cards that immediately gain or lose value, or did I miss the mark on any of the ones I’ve listed here? Cavern of Souls is certainly going to shake up Legacy, but how much, and how are you preparing yourself to be profitable?

Insider: A Call for a Moral Compass

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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In the past, I’ve written at length about the rapid rise in MTG finance speculators and the resulting impact on the game. An interesting dynamic is created – one which is relatively unique as far as hobbies go.

This week, while nearly every other finance writer dives into their predictions for Avacyn Restored’s upcoming impact on the MTG financial market, I look to deviate and discuss a different topic. One related to the relationship between finance speculators and the broader MTG community.

Lucid Transactions

Most members of the MTG community are aware of our presence. Casual and competitive players alike can either avoid this fact or embrace it. Either way, there is a growing population of players who are seeking to profit from this beloved card game.

As a value-trader / profit-seeker / greedy person, however you want to spin it, my trading experiences have varied heavily from one individual to the next. Some exchanges have been augmented by the acknowledgment that I have decent availability of the hottest cards and I may trade them at a small premium. Other exchanges have become quite awkward because of this same recognition.

I have two recent anecdotes to share along these lines. I will share my immediate reactions, my actual responses and the end result. Then I will brainstorm other potential ways of handling these situations and I’ll even elicit comments from all of my readers, who have surely had similar experiences in the past.

Anecdote 1: The Pitfall of Twitter Uncovered?

By now, most of you know I am an avid user of Twitter. I have ambitions to increase my follower base and have a truly measurable influence on the MTG community.

I try to drive awareness of my “Twitter-dom” in various ways – some subtle and some (see above) not so subtle.

One subtle way is the inclusion of my Twitter handle in my signature on my MOTL account. Whenever I send someone a private message, my Twitter handle is included on the bottom of the page. I am not ashamed of this tactic and honestly I doubt it gets noticed.

One MOTL member ended up doing much more than noticing. While in the midst of some negotiations on a purchase I was aiming to make, this member looked at my Twitter feed and noticed I am a value-seeker. Upon this recognition, he wrote to me his apprehension with proceeding with the trade because he realized my motivations for buying may have been strictly financial.

This was a first for me. I could certainly understand the seller’s concern – as a person who seeks to profit from this hobby, my interest in his cards imply that perhaps his prices are a bit too low. It completely alters my perspective on this interaction. If I were in his shoes, I would certainly consider negotiating higher prices on my cards knowing a potential “shark” was interested.

Concerned I may have offended the seller, I promptly responded in a reassuring way. I explained that my intent was not to immediately sell his cards for profit – in fact, I needed the Vendilion Clique in the deal in order to complete my playset. (By the way, doesn’t Vendilion Clique seem like a great hoser for the new “miracle” ability? Nice Temporal Mastery).


(chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

This seemed to settle the seller to some degree and the deal was agreed upon. Now when I receive the cards I will be faced with a tough situation. My plan is to follow through on my promise and seek to trade the cards at a local tournament rather than sell for profit on MOTL. But is this the right decision? Taking a step back, could I have approached this confrontation in a way which would have netted me the cards while not pigeonholing myself into a tough spot?

Recall I don’t want to upset other members of the community here. I don’t think we’re bad people for wanting to buy cards from others and attempt to sell them for more. Larger stores sustain their existence with this model, and I think the fact that I have the means to make moderate purchases on the fly is a service to be provided to sellers in desperate need to offload cards. I can certainly understand how this stigma has formed – if I sell cards to a shark, I must be getting ripped off.

Anecdote 2: Some People Just Don’t Want to Negotiate

I frequently sell cards on MOTL – it’s an efficient way of moving cards without the fees of eBay and the lowball prices of retailer buy lists. I strive to be reasonable with prices, at times settling with a 0 profit margin just to make another contact in the community.

I once made a fairly substantial sale (~$100) to another MOTL member. I had priced the card fairly, no negotiations were necessary. Besides, the buyer and I had chatted through Twitter in the past so we were on agreeable terms

Over a year later, I was impulsively interested in purchasing a Grim Tutor. After a couple failed attempts at acquiring one, I came across a sale list with a competitive price. Even though the price was fair, I saw little harm in attempting to negotiate a few bucks in savings.


(chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Was this an appropriate step to take? Although the price was fair and I wanted the card, my profit-seeking instincts kicked in and drove me to attempt a better price. It is natural for me to seek the best deal on a card. In my opinion, settling for the asking price is a true shame unless you’re making a speculative purchase where you hope for the price to rise.

Wrong or not, my negotiation attempt was not received well. It turns out the seller was that same MOTL member who had previously made a substantial purchase from my list without seeking to negotiate. Perhaps rightfully so, the seller was offended at my attempt to negotiate on what was already a competitively priced card.

I hadn’t meant to anger my once-Twitter-compatriot, I quickly apologized and agreed to his sale price. Almost out of shame for my actions, I was compelled to make this purchase.

picture courtesy of http://www.zazzle.com/cheapskate_tshirt-235318434923253423

My apology was accepted and the relationship was mended. I purchased the card and we parted ways at worst neutrally. Now I am left to wonder if I had behaved inappropriately and if my decision to purchase the card was strictly out of emotion. Again, I have no desire to anger members of the MTG community and here is another example of me attempting to keep peace.

Similarly to before I now possess this card which I no longer need and feel funny selling for profit. Doesn’t it feel “dirty” sometimes to buy cards from someone on MOTL and immediately place them back on the site at a higher price? This is a practice I try to avoid yet acknowledge is necessary at times to make quick profit.

Does this act cross the moral boundary?

Picking Up the Pieces

These experiences have reshaped my perceptions. Value-traders are not universally lauded for their transparency and broad card availability. Many people frown upon our habits. While this comes as no surprise, these recent experiences cause me to question my own behaviors.

Perhaps I am not carrying myself professionally in these circumstances? Perhaps I am seeking out financial gains too overtly and aggressively? Or perhaps I simply care too much about what others think about me?

Either way, I am glad to be made aware of these perceptions. Now I am left to decide how to proceed. But before I do, I want to compare my moral compass with others in the community. What do other people think about how I handled these situations?

I eagerly await your suggestions.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, SpecialTagged , , 22 Comments on Insider: A Call for a Moral Compass

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Of Introductions, Spoilers and Standard

Posted on by Ryan Overturf

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Formalities

Greetings, dear reader. It’s entirely possible that you have no idea who I am. I would argue that your anonymity makes this relationship fair, but for the sake of maintaining your readership I’ll tell you a little bit about myself.

My name is Ryan Overturf. And I’m a grinder.

I don’t think that it’s anything to be ashamed of, really. Some of my best friends are grinders. However, it happens that not everybody can appreciate this lifestyle. For those of us who do, it is our lifeblood. We breathe Magic. Zvi Mowshowitz once famously stated that his hobbies were Magic, and thinking about Magic. If you have this in common with Zvi, then I think we’ll get along splendidly.

If you do recognize my name, it is most likely from my recent SCG Legacy Open win.

The trophy was actually for "best dressed".

This was probably my most impressive tournament finish, but my resume also includes a couple Grand Prix top 64s, a Pro Tour top 100 and an invitational top 32 (missed top 16 on breakers, but hey, I’m not bitter).

I will grant that this is not overly impressive, but I still believe I have a lot to offer the community as a writer. I have a background in comedy and I spent the last four years of my life doing little other than writing, but that’s not what I’m alluding to.

What I want you to know, dear reader, is that I am excited about Magic, and, as such, excited to write about Magic. As I’m sure an intelligent (and handsome and/or beautiful) individual such as yourself already knows, the best work is the product of a happy worker.

Do you know that feeling when you ask your friend how they feel about a card choice in one of their decks and they shrug? Or perhaps when you ask about a certain play and they’re too busy life-tilting to hear you?

I find this behavior repulsive. I plan to talk your ear off (er… type your eye off?) about every card choice that I make in every deck that I play and I plan to let you know every mistake I feel cost me a match.

Why? Because deck building for me is the closest thing to Christmas morning that I experience these days, and playing a tournament is just like taking my new bike for a spin. Often times I end up with scraped knees, but I generally have a good ride. Either way, being the man-child that I am, I feel the need to tell every one of my exploits.

Spoiler Alert

Remember when Magic was about interaction and not just taking five?

Speaking of Christmas, as I write this we are very deep in previews for Avacyn Restored. As far as the Miracle mechanic goes, I could not be less excited. I believe that it’s too random for constructed and that it will make a lot of limited games miserable.

There are, however, a few cards that have piqued my interest.

[card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card] is clearly a powerful card, especially in tandem with Lingering Souls.

Gristelbrand is the stones in EDH, which is something that not everybody can appreciate, but that excites me nonetheless. The card also has some seriously potential for Legacy. I don't know that he's good enough for Reanimator, but he is a complete house in Sneak and Show. Imagine Sneak Attacking this guy in, gaining and drawing seven. It's not exactly my kind of deck, but this interaction is clearly powerful.

I’m certain that sometime in the next year I will develop an undying hatred for [card Sigarda, Host of Herons]Sigarda[/card], but my opinions on all of these cards listed so far are pretty speculative.

One card that is undeniably going to shake up Magic is Cavern of Souls.

The game, the franchise, the truth, etc...

It’s very easy to hate Cavern of Souls. It makes cards like Huntmaster of the Fells and Primeval Titan considerably more powerful, and severely impacts a player’s ability to interact with these cards.

That said, I am very happy to see something printed that will inhibit the power of [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] decks. Delver mirrors are pretty miserable and not terribly skill intensive. The deck has very few complex interactions, and if you’re playing Gitaxian Probe you really don’t even need to think much about how you play your Mana Leaks.

While I am happy to see Delver go, I am not exactly excited to see Primeval Titan rise. It is my belief that immediately after the release of Avacyn Restored we will see a major surge in the popularity and results of [card Kessig Wolf Run]Wolf Run[/card] variants. Much like Delver mirrors, ramp mirrors boil down to drawing well more than anything.

Very often the first resolved Titan wins the game. I remember watching the finals of Pro Tour Dark Ascension and walking away after Kibler managed to steal a game on the draw against Paulo. I was convinced that there was no way that more than one game would be won on the draw in such a mirror. It’s certainly more likely in a match where there is a greater disparity in decklist and/or play skill between players, but it was not meant to be on that day.

As I’m sure you’ve already deduced, dear reader, I have no desire to play Titan mirrors. I’m sure it is possible that a good control deck could be brewed to beat ramp without relying on counterspells, but building such a deck is the type of task I would only set out on when the metagame is better developed.

As for now my inclination is to play a deck that is fast enough to race or ignore a Titan. I would love to deliver a decklist, but am not confident enough in anything I’ve brewed up to publish a list just yet. I will instead submit a short list of conclusions I have reached while brewing.

Decks to Ponder

Mono-Red

One of my first thoughts when deciding that I wanted to play a fast deck was to look at Mono-Red. Shrine of Burning Rage is a hell of a card, and there are a number of powerful options for this archetype. Ultimately what steered me away from exploring Mono-Red too deeply is the existence of Timely Reinforcements. Shrine and [card Koth of the Hammer]Koth[/card] are really the only exciting cards that this deck has to offer, and Timely generally mitigates two of any other card in the deck along with being comparable in power to the aforementioned cards.

Closest thing to Bitterblossom this side of standard.

BW Tokens

After that I looked at BW Tokens.

The deck is capable of doing some very explosive things and can outclass other creature-based strategies entirely with Intangible Virtue.

What I don’t like about the deck is the inability to draw cards or to tutor for anything.

Much like Mono-Red, there is a massive disparity between your best cards and your worst. Lingering Souls and Hero of Bladehold can destroy an unprepared opponent, but Doomed Traveler is nothing short of miserable without a crusade effect. Even with one he can be pretty underwhelming.

One card that I’ve been surprised not to see in token lists that have sprung up so far is Shrine of Loyal Legions. I played four Shrines in Tempered Steel last year and the card was always very good - even when I didn’t draw Tempered Steel. It generates an entire Wrath-worthy army all on its own and, in many instances, is actually just more powerful than its “red” counterpart.

I wouldn’t be excited to sleeve up tokens, but if I did I would almost definitely be playing Shrine.

Other...

I’m currently looking at various tribes and trying to develop a non-ramp Cavern of Souls deck. It seems to me that Cavern works very well as a mana-fixer in a nearly mono-color build with a splash for creatures in a second color. RG and GW humans have some interesting options, but I’m only just beginning to test these sorts of decks.

Of course, there is a non-zero chance that there is something else on the spoiler that causes me to rethink these findings. More likely, there could still be yet another card in Avacyn Restored that inspires a whole new deck. Either way, it’s probably for the best to cease my rambling on all things speculative for now.

I hope that you’ve enjoyed my first article here at Quiet Speculation, and I hope that you’re excited for more. I know I am.

Jason’s Archives: Finkel, Full Avacyn Restored Visual Spoiler, Prereleasing and a Portal Deckbox

Posted on by Jason Alt

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Welcome back, Speculators!

I can honestly say that I haven't been this excited about the release of a new Magic set since Zendikar. The amount of money cards in this set makes it a great potential investment, and it doesn't hurt that it looks fun to play as well. I think Avacyn has restored my faith in the limited format, also. With no cumbersome flip cards to broadcast your picks to the whole table and removal spells that can actually kill some of the creatures in the set, this looks to be a great standalone draft and sealed format. I want to dive right into all the AVR content I found for you in just a minute.

Johhny Magic's IAMA

First, though, I want to take you guys back to last year.

Last August, this article appeared on the website Gizmodo. Unfortunately for the snark-artist who crafted this article, the result was not quite (or exactly) what she had intended. Instead of a wave of condolences flooding her way consoling her for her wasted night spent with an uber geek, the internet turned on her and denounced her as the worst sort of high school bully and Finkel emerged from the fracas looking like the total class act that he is.

The result of this debacle was two-fold.

First, Finkel himself next leveled, getting brief albeit national attention for something other than his Magic prowess and the women of NYC realized he was one of the city's most eligible bachelors.Second is that the attention the Gizmodo article garnered on Reddit lead to Finkel doing an IAMA on the website, one that started the trend of the titans of the Magic community following suit and doing IAMAs of their own.

This IAMA is the one to read all the way through if you've never taken the time to read one before. Finkel gives some great advice on what's made him a success at Magic and at life that has applications outside of the game. Since he did this IAMA for the Reddit community at large rather than just the magic subreddit, the questions are less about the game and more about him, but it's still a great read.

Full Avacyn Restored Visual Spoiler

I'm sure I don't need to tell anyone that the whole set has now been completely spoiled.

You've been following along like I have and mulling over each new card carefully. Now the sanctuary cat is fully out of the bag.

As much as I like to go to mtgsalvation.com to see an aggregation of all the spoiled cards as they are spoiled, I prefer the format of the mothership's full visual spoiler once the whole set is out. It's easy to browse given that you can sort by color and don't have to click individual hyperlinks to see the pictures.

The art, by the way, is phenomenal for this set.

Fan-made Sealed Simulator

Redditor taw got sick of waiting for an official draft simulator so he made a quick and dirty sealed deck simulator. It's not quite as easy to use as the sealed deck builder on MODO, but taw got this out in record time. The full visual spoiler has barely been out a day or two and already he has a simulator with every picture up and running. I'm blown away.

You can check out taw's creation right here.

What to Expect When You're Expecting (to play in the prerelease)

If this is your first prerelease, as it may be for some of you, or your first Avacyn Restored prerelease, as it is for all of you, I found some valuable information on the mothership that you may find useful.

Prerelease Primer

Tim Willoughby has anticipated your questions regarding the Avacyn Restored prerelease including some info about the Helvault and the set's mechanics. This is well worth the read.

Frequently Asked Questions

This is a good resource if you want to be forewarned and therefore forearmed about how all of the set's mechanics work.

Fan-made Portal Deckbox

Weighted companion deckbox

Redditor leifkicker made this fantastic-looking portal-themed deckbox. Wuuuuuut?

I'm sure you have a lot of questions regarding how many cards it fits and why throwing your wallet at your computer screen isn't working, and he answers a lot of them in his reddit post. Anyone who plays EDH could use a box big enough to hold 100 cards plus sleeves, but as a value trader I can see using this bad boy as a stash box to throw all of my dealer bait into.

It's a good idea to stash your cards in a deckbox that is distinctive enough that it would be easier to identify and recover if stolen and less likely to get picked up from the table by mistake. And this fits the bill. I tried ordering one on my computer, but they aren't for sale... yet. Besides, apparently my computer only takes round cards.

Great work, Leifkicker.

5colorcontrol

Finally, I thought I'd leave you with an amusing comic I found, complete with a spoiler for those of you who are into lore but didn't catch Wizards' latest announcement about Nicol Bolas and his EDL friends. Enjoy.

Credit given where credit is due.

Decklists From the Weekend

SCG Open Birmingham

Ugh. I don't know about you guys, but I can't wait for AVR to become legal just so people have an excuse to brew a little.

Standard:

In the Standard portion of the SCG Open in Birmingham, Delver took 4 of the top 5 spots. With the possible exception of Temporal Mastery (I am not holding my breath), there isn't a ton that obviously gets slotted into Delver builds, so the new set may bring some much-needed diversity to what is becoming a pretty stale format.

Two things brightened my day a bit, however. First, the non-delver in the top 5 was Zee Shan Babar's Heartless Summoning deck. I have always been a fan of this card, and every once in a while someone comes along and does very well and gives the rest of us hope. Sure, a 3/2 flier for U is unfair, but what if every creature in your deck is efficiently-costed and unfair? I'll take a 4/5 flying Fact or Fiction any day of the week.

Kris Casey's BUG control list in the top 16 was another bright spot in the midst of a bunch of stock Delver lists. I personally think his deck needs more Glissa, but he must have something going for him and he carved himself a nice niche in the top 16, finishing ahead of both of the top 16 Zombies lists, another notable.

We haven't been seeing many good finishes out of Zombies lately and it's good to see the servants of Geralf clawing their undead way back into the top spots. Both U/B and R/B zombies made appearances. Sure a 1 mana 3/2 is good, but I hear a 3 mana lava axe gets there, too.

Chi Hoi Yim, the event's winner, piloted a U/W build that made use of two Dungeon Geists, a card that has been seeing a resurgence lately. Half of the top 16 delver decks agreed that a two-of gets there. Congrats Chi Hoi Yim!

Legacy:

Who doesn't love Metalworker/Welder?

Perhaps whoever Zac Hicks beat out to make top 16, but other than that, you have to love this list. Making use of Hall of the Bandit Lord, this list continues to do well in a Legacy format ruled by the same 1/1 human-cum-insect beater plaguing Standard.

Maverick didn't make as strong a showing as usual, and it could be due to the white humans at the core of the Maverick nuisance engine taking a ton of splash damage from a red sideboard answer that kept the number of Stoneblade decks in the top 16 to a mere single showing. Sulfur Elemental is a force to be reckoned with and it appears to be here to stay.With split second and flash, he has been pantsing fields full of Lingering Souls for a while now.

Nice Force Of Will, bro. I think I'll be annihilating your board anyway.

Could this be the death rattle of a once-dominant strategy? Or will Stoneblade continue to finish well with its combination of cheap, renewable threats, countermagic, card draw,and the inherent unfairness of everyone's favorite Kor Artificer?

Eschewing long-game inevitability for a better mana base and room for cards like Life from the Loam and Fauna Shaman, both Maverick lists decide to forgo Punishing Fire in favor of... Elesh Norn?

Maverick continues to evolve in new and exciting directions, and the inclusion of Fauna Shaman reminds me of my favorite standard deck of all time. If Maverick starts to run Vengevine and Bloodbraid Elf, expect to see my name next to a few top 8s.

A guy can dream, can't he?

Personally, however, I think Punishing Fire is too good not to run, but these lists prove Maverick can do just fine without it. Perhaps the vaguest name for a collection of decks since "Death and Taxes", Maverick seems to be applied to any deck that runs Knight of the Reliquary lately.

I'm still waiting to see a blue variant do as well as it was doing last year. I hear Vendilion Clique once is good, Vendilion Clique every turn is better, and Knight of the Reliquary would be more than happy to get your Karakas for you. Rhox War Monk ain't afraid of no Mongoose. Geist of St. Traft plus a few exalted triggers? There has to be a deck in there somewhere.

So long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, good bye

That does it for this installment. Feel free to leave me some feedback or hit me up over in the QS forums where I've decided to become a regular. I'd love to chat about what you're brewing and hear what you want to see in future installments of this article series. I also plan to join the 21st Century and start tweeting soon, so watch this space for my contact info. I'd love to have you all as followers.

Until next time!

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Avacyn Restored, Free, Spoiler, Web Review2 Comments on Jason’s Archives: Finkel, Full Avacyn Restored Visual Spoiler, Prereleasing and a Portal Deckbox

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Porting Decks: A Modern Experiment

Posted on by Mike Lanigan

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Last week, I wrote about my experiences getting into Legacy. I wanted to say thanks to everyone who supported the article. I hope you all found it interesting and inspiring. I plan to write more about Eternal and my experiences in the future.

Today I'm going to discuss a Legacy deck that hasn't received much attention and attempt to port it to Modern.

A while ago, Sam Black wrote an article on Star City about Legacy Zombies, but it seems that no one really noticed. I thought the deck looked amazing and have been working on it for a bit:

Legacy Zombies
by Sam Black
As suggested here

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Carrion Feeder
3 Geralfs Messenger
4 Gravecrawler
2 Tombstalker
1 Viscera Seer

Spells

3 Goblin Bombardment
1 Tragic Slip
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Faithless Looting
4 Hymn to Tourach
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Lingering Souls
1 Thoughtseize

Lands

2 Verdant Catacombs
2 Marsh Flats
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Polluted Delta
3 Badlands
2 Scrubland
2 Undiscovered Paradise
2 Swamp

Sideboard

4 Dark Confidant
1 Darkblast
2 Disenchant
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Tragic Slip
3 Deathmark
1 Perish
1 Vindicate

By now those of you who read my articles are probably aware of my love for rogue strategies. Attacking a format from an unexpected angle is always so awesome. When players aren't familiar with your deck they are more likely to misplay and sideboard incorrectly. I enjoy rogue decks so much because every round my opponents are lost and confused.

If you've paid much attention to Legacy recently, you'll notice this deck is unlike other Legacy decks.

There are certainly many powerful decks in Legacy and I'm not saying this deck will break the format or anything. However, it is competitive and one of the more affordable decks out there.

Strategic Strengths

Lets examine a few components of the Zombies deck to get an idea of its game plan and relative strengths.

Disruption

Legacy Zombies seeks to disrupt opponents by messing with cards in their hand. This goal is accomplished with Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, Cabal Therapy and Hymn to Tourach, a suite of fully eleven discard spells that make your opponents' life uncomfortable. These cards are extremely powerful and relevant in almost every matchup.

Resilient Threats

Aggro-control strategies are popular in Legacy right now, and they have a tough time dealing with recurring threats. Bloodghast and Gravecrawler both come back from your graveyard over and over. Swords to Plowshares and Path to Exile do answer them permanently, but your deck also has a few sacrifice effects to prevent this. You also have access to the ubiquitous Lingering Souls, which rarely trades one-for-one against opposing removal.

Faithless Looting and Consistency

To make draws more consistent, Zombies utilizes a card that the Magic community is just beginning to understand. This deck is set up to maximize the power of Faithless Looting, which basically reads "R: Draw two cards." Between Bloodghast, Gravecrawler and a host of flashback spells, its not hard to get value off your lootings. Even in it's less-busted version, it still lets you pitch unneeded lands or spells to craft the perfect hand.

Combo Finish

Zombies functions like an aggro-combo deck, similar to Ravager Affinity or Dredge. These decks can attack simultaneously from different axes, which puts your opponent in an difficult position.

When Affinity was in Standard, for example, its adversaries had to answer not only fast aggressive creatures, but also the ever-looming Disciple of the Vault. Deal with the initial rush and you may succumb to the combo finish.

The same thing is true about our Zombie deck here. Goblin Bombardment can singlehandedly end the game outside the combat step. Carion Feeder can also grow to enormous proportions and start to abyss them every turn.

This deck has lots of little intricacies that betray the brilliance of its design. If you manage resources effectively you will usually have the reach you need to vanquish an opponent in the late game.

For example, always remember to sacrifice your Bloodghast before playing a land for the turn. If you have extra mana, you will want to sink it into a couple Gravecrawler sacrifices.

Porting Zombies to Modern

While I was working on this deck, one of my first thoughts was to port it to Modern. Most of the cards are legal in Modern and it shouldn't be hard to adequately replace the ones that aren't.

The most important loss, believe it or not, is Carrion Feeder. This innocent-looking one drop is actually a core piece of the deck. Its a sacrifice engine and an enormous threat. Its also a zombie for your Gravecrawlers.

While I did eventually find a replacement, this was easily the biggest loss of power in the Modern version.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
3 Mortician Beetle
3 Geralfs Messenger
4 Gravecrawler
3 Viscera Seer

Spells

3 Blasting Station
1 Tragic Slip
4 Faithless Looting
2 Rise//Fall
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Lingering Souls
2 Thoughtseize
2 Lightning Bolt

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Marsh Flats
2 Arid Mesa
4 Blood Crypt
2 Godless Shrine
3 Isolated Chapel
3 Swamp

As I said above, the deck is nearly identical. Mortician Beetle was the best replacement I could find for Carrion Feeder. The beetle can get huge like its predecessor, but it requires a separate sacrifice outlet. The one benefit is that, unlike Carrion Feeder, the beetle still gets counters when you sacrifice things to Viscera Seer or Blasting Station.

One card that has synergy with our new beetle friend but didn't make the cut is Gatekeeper of Malakir. This removal spell on legs can kill a lot of tenacious threats while growing your beetles. It may eventually make an appearance in the maindeck or sideboard.

I lowered the amount of hand disruption as well. Rise//Fall is significantly worse than Hymn to Tourach and I need to do more testing with it to see if it really belongs. I do not like the variance associated with the card. If they randomly reveal two lands they avoid discarding entirely and you're down two mana and a card. Right now, I'm running a split of two Rise//Fall and two Lightning Bolt. Depending on what the format looks like next PTQ season, I could see a lot of different things in this spot.

Just like the Legacy version, this deck has the consistency and resilience to be a real player in Modern. I'm not completely settled on the card choices and numbers, but that will get settled over time.

Over the next couple weeks, Standard is going to heat up with changes from the new set. I am excited to see what happens and eagerly await the changes to a stale format. There will be a lot of brewing on my end, so hopefully I can find some cool strategies to share with you here.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force on those eternal formats!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Hidden Gems, Mirage Block Edition

Posted on by Douglas Linn

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I love doing my finanical recaps of older sets where I mine the expensive cards, but going back further is a little harder in two ways. First, there are just so few good cards in older sets. Second, the good ones don't often turn over, so it's hard to establish prices. Luckily, Mirage Block was the first "modern" block and it brought in some great spells that wizards still sling today. Let's take a walk through time as we re-acquaint ourselves with the block. Below is a list of some of the choice picks from the block; I left out the cards worth under two dollars, leaving only the prime cards on the list. There are some cards in here that I guarantee will surprise you.

Mirage

Mirage had such an incredible and immersive world. I remember cracking packs when it first came out and marveling at elephants, giant insects, night horrors, stout knights and more. The flavor text was well done. With the series of Knights, like Burning Shield Askari, they pushed what Grey Ogres could be. Mirage is still seriously underpowered compared to today, but it's a fine set to go back and think about. Here are some of the hits:

Enlightened Tutor

$9.25

Of all of the topdeck tutors, Enlightened Tutor is the most dangerous in Mirage. Enchantments and artifacts have a long-lasting and powerful effect on the board. The card can get things like Choke, Null Rod, Tormod's Crypt, Warmth and Light of Day. In Legacy, it's used to get both halves of the Thopter Sword combo, get a Top and Counterbalance or put up an Ensnaring Bridge. It's a phenomenally good card. Bob Maher used it in Oath of Druids to run a toolbox deck with a few maindecked bullets. It's still a captivating card for players to this day.

Commander has really pushed new life into the topdeck tutors. ET will slot into anything you put it in with white and you're sure to have great bombs - even if you're just getting Sol Ring on the first turn. Despite being reprinted in Sixth Edition, everyone wants the white-bordered copies instead.

Lion's Eye Diamond

$40.00

LED sat languishing for years, until it broke out in Vintage as part of a deck that used it in a combo. You would cast Burning Wish, getting your sideboarded Yawgmoth's Will, and crack the Diamond in response to the Wish. You then had three free mana and an open graveyard to replay the LED and everything else. You had four LEDs, so it was likely that you could get two or four free Black Lotuses in the combo turn. What a monster.

LED was restricted in Vintage but it still sees a lot of love in Legacy, where the "activate in response" trick powers Ad Nauseam and hellbends Infernal Tutor. It ticks up in price about $5 per year. The card is never going to be reprinted and there's not much that can really hose storm combo in Legacy to where it would stop being played, so LED is a stable card.

Mystical Tutor

$4.00

Mystical Tutor got banned in Legacy last year, which caused a lot of griping. Let's be clear: Mystical Tutor was too good and we knew it for a long time. Brainstorm is too good and there will still be people griping. Mystical Tutor, while it cannot grab hate cards on the caliber of Enlightened Tutor, could still get everything that a combo deck needed. It grabs the engine cards, the kill cards, that one-of Echoing Truth to stop hate bears... It's an all-around solid card. It is one of the sacrosanct blue cards that never gets cut in Vintage and it sees plenty of play in Commander, too.

Phyrexian Dreadnought

$14.50

The 'Nought was a tempting garbage creature when it was first printed. I don't think my friends realized that they didn't gain any benefit if they sacrificed 12 power worth of dudes to fuel this thing. Luckily, more intelligent people figured that you could use it with Illusionary Mask (good luck figuring it out) at the time to get a 12/12 in play with no downside. Thus, MaskNought was born, one of the first aggro-control decks in Vintage. A Dark Ritual could power it out on the first turn, backed up by Unmask. It was a deadly deck and was a force to consider in the early days of Vintage.

The Nought also gets a minor bit of play in Legacy right now, since you can Stifle its trigger. This was the basis of Dreadstill decks, which aimed to use the 12/12 and Standstill to apply a lot of pressure on the opponent. It's a bad creature and a bad combo, but people still love the idea of a 12/12 for one mana.

Spirit of the Night

$2.25

The Spirit was one of the coolest cards for me in Mirage because of the summoning ability with Urborg Panther. It had a few brief moments in Oath and Reanimator decks, but it is largely forgotten in the face of Akroma these days.

Worldly Tutor

$3.50

Creatures are often the worst part of a combo to tutor up, and this guy has to compete with Survival of the Fittest at casual tables. That said, Worldly Tutor is a fine card for grabbing silver bullet guys or getting casual combos on the table. The fact that this grabs any creature, not just green ones, makes it head and shoulders above the rest of the creature tutors.

Visions

Visions was a much smaller set and it developed more of the Mirage themes of Phasing and Flanking. I can't really pin a good theme on what Visions was about. It had killer art, but most of the cards are just not memorable (or valuable). It is a historically significant set because it was the first set with comes-into-play creatures. The mechanic of a benefit when a creature enters the battlefield is huge in design these days. Imagine that there were several years of Magic, thousands of cards, before this idea was explored in its infancy!

Anvil of Bogardan

$3.25

I like the Anvil, but I'm not so sure what it does. It lets me skip my discard like a Spellbook and it gives me a Merfolk Looter, but then again, it gives that to everyone. I'd have to design a deck that really focused on getting the most out of this effect to give something that valuable to an opponent. It's definitely in the vein of Howling Mine, but I don't know why I'd want this when I wasn't also running the Mine.

On a side note, I'm amused that R&D has realized the real power of Howling Mine in recent years. Keeping that card in Standard alongside too many Fog effects can be dangerous, indeed.

Desertion

$4.00

Desertion is one of the best counterspells in Commander. It's a superb spell that will jack a Mindslaver just as easily as a Grave Titan. All of its value comes from its use in Commander and similar casual ventures.

Natural Order

$20.75

Natural Order is the Green Tinker and it wasn't worth a red cent before Progenitus was printed. We suddenly had a giant, insane and unremovable monster to get, simply by feeding a Noble Hierarch to it. Thus, Natural Order shot up in price as people slotted it into Legacy decks. Natural Order comes and goes in power. The prime decision is whether you can rely on a 2GG spell to win - can you cast it fast enough? Can you protect it? It's strange to think that sometimes, Progenitus simply isn't enough, but he doesn't gain life and that's a big disadvantage. Natural Order is rarely played now because both the UW Stoneforge decks, with Spell Pierces, and the RUG Delver decks with tempo coming out everywhere, can handle the sorcery just fine.

Tithe

$2.25

Year by year, Tithe is forgotten a little more. It's a great little spell - I love its ability to grab two dual lands if I'm on the draw or just crafty with fetches. Tithe had a few problems going against it in that you couldn't exactly rely on it when people play spells like Daze and Spell Pierce. Land and color smoothing isn't really worth a card if all you're doing is getting one land, and it's unreliable for getting a pair. I'm Tithe's best friend, but I doubt it'll ever see serious play in Legacy.

Vampiric Tutor

$16.25

Vampy alone probably makes up half of the value of Visions. It's a card second only to Demonic Tutor. It's been insane or better in every format where it's been legal. Again, despite having been reprinted, people still love the black-bordered Visions editions.

Weatherlight

I especially like Weatherlight, even though it's a really poor set. It's got a lot of neat flavor to it and I think it set up the Tempest cycle pretty well. I have good memories of cards like Roc Hatchling and Mistmoon Griffin. My two favorite cards of all time are Disrupt and Phyrexian Furnace. Such value! There are a few cards in the set that have survived the test of time financially, and here they are.

Abeyance

$2.25

Abeyance is a pretty cool word and a pretty cool card. Back in Ancient Times when this was first printed, it was interpreted to be the most insane Time Walk ever. See, tapping a land for mana was an activation cost, since you had to tap it. That still holds true to this day. Abeyance could hit lands in the beginning, so you could use it to blank an opponent's turn and then draw a card in the process! How berserk! The card was quickly changed and now it's just used to protect combos from counterspells. Note that this, like Disrupt and many other Weatherlight cards, carries that magic phrase of "draw a card."

Firestorm

$7.00

I am not making this price up. Firestorm, that naughty X-X-X card, can sweep away an army in front of you for a single mana. What was a downside at the time of printing - giving up a lot of cards - has become a reason to run Firestorm in Legacy. It's an amazing discard outlet. Dredge runs the card to turn on its discard and fight aggro decks more effectively. If you know other reasons why Firestorm suddenly is so expensive, let me know!

Lotus Vale

$4.50

It has "Lotus" in the name. It makes three mana of any color. If your buddies don't know what Wasteland is, this card is pretty solid.

Null Rod

$6.50

Null Rod ostensibly sees play in Vintage as a hoser for Moxes, but it's on the wane. With Lodestone Golem around, it's a better strategy for Mishra's Workshop decks to combine the Golem and Phyrexian Metamorph instead of spending slots on the Rod. White has Stony Silence, which Fish decks run instead because it's a lot harder to kill an enchantment than an artifact in Vintage. Null Rod sees a tiny bit of Legacy play, mostly to shut down Tormod's Crypts.

Peacekeeper

$4.00

Peacekeeper used to sell for $10-15 when Merfolk was a big deal, but that deck is as dead as last week's catch. There are some decks that simply cannot get past a Peacekeeper and Merfolk was one. Dredge was another. Now that those decks are out of the metagame, Peacekeeper gets to retire with Llawan, Cephalid Empress to the land of obsolete hosers.

Winding Canyons

$4.50

Winding Canyons is entirely a Commander card, but it's ubiquitous because it's colorless. I have played a lot of Commander and I have very rarely used one of these when it's on the field, but it's a nice enough ability. There is a lot to be said for colorless lands with a minor effect, which is why cards like High Market command the price that they do.

Keep an eye out for some of these older hits. If you'd like to go back and read some of my older articles, which span Tempest to Zendikar, simply click here and get to reading!

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Insider: The Rich Get… Poor?

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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As expected, we’re buried in spoilers, and so far I can’t say that Divine vs. Demonic: The Set has disappointed. We’ve seen some huge angels and some even bigger Grislebrand.

There’s powerful cards aplenty that we are used to seeing from large sets, and everyone’s getting ideas for new decks or looping some endless Miracles. Next week I’ll have my usual Prerelease Primer to get you started, and we’ll be diving deep into it on my podcast Brainstorm Brewery, where Jon Medina will be our guest. All in all, it seems like Avacyn Restored is going to be a hit among every crowd.

That said, this week I want to talk about what we don’t see from the new set. Inspired by Alexander Shearer’s article on Channel Fireball a few weeks ago, I decided to look at how the spoiled cards impact the top decks and what that means for us.

Unquestionably, the top dog is UW Delver decks in their many incarnations. Beating that deck is priority No. 1 for those of us not simply sleeving up Delvers and hoping for Mana Leaks to be on top of our deck. People have resorted to drastic measures in the last few months, with cards like Corrosive Gale and Gut Shot coming from seemingly out of nowhere to be relevant pieces of cardboard.

Looking at the last few years, we see that Jund got some goodies from Rise of the Eldrazi to help cement its position as the top deck (if not the only deck), and CawBlade last year got Batterskull to further cement its place as the best deck of all time (obligatory Flores reference).

Based on those experiences, we might expect the same to happen for Delver. A new 1-drop perhaps, to increase the deck’s nut draws, or another form of card selection to help with those Miracles. And while Temporal Mastery may fit into the deck and provide some free wins, it’s far from a slam-dunk inclusion at this point. So we must look deeper.

And, surprisingly, we’re coming up blank.

I see a lot of archetypes getting a big boost from the new set, and Cavern of Souls is probably the most absurd land of the last 10 years (pick yours up, this thing is going to be everywhere), but the Delver deck itself doesn’t have anything that immediately slots in. Quite the opposite, I see some cards that will hurt the deck more than help it (at least the most popular non-Spirits versions).

Let’s dig in. I’ll start with the cards that could see play in Delver, the cards that will adversely impact it, and what this means financially going forward. As of writing this, there are 158 cards spoiled, and we’ve seen most of the big stuff by this point. If card tags aren’t yet working, make sure to pull up your favorite spoiler and follow along.

Joining the Cause

The first card we have to look at is Temporal Mastery, the new Time Walk. I’m of the opinion this could work well as a 2-of in Delver decks and provide free wins out of nowhere, but there is a very real cost to playing the card and it certainly doesn’t take Delver to some new level.

Overhyped and Overpriced.

By the way, this thing is insanely overpriced. It’s not quite Time Reversal 2.0, but it’s not that far from it either. I’m looking at $10-12 as the eventual settling price for this.

Here’s a quick rundown of the other cards I’ve seen mentioned of fitting into Delver decks.

-       Angel of Jubilation: I wouldn’t say it’s impossible, but it turns off all your own Gut Shots and Dismembers and competes with Dungeon Geists in the four-drop spot. Nothing overpowering here.

-       Silverblade Paladin: This thing is going to see play, but I’m not sure it’s in Delver. It could fit into the Champion of the Parish builds, but it’s not like Delver decks were lacking good options at the three-drop spot.

-       Restoration Angel: Solid card and definitely a sleeper in the set, but blinking your flipped Delver back unflipped or resetting your Champion isn’t the strongest play in the world.

And that’s pretty much it. There are a few other ways the Delver deck can be built, but the bottom line is that there just aren’t any clear upgrades out yet for Delver decks.

Let’s move on.

If You Can Beat Em…

Let’s start with what I think is the most important card in the set – Cavern of Souls. We need to get this out of the way. This card is absolutely bonkers and I have a hard time even thinking of decks it won’t go in as a four-of.

This just became the best mana-fixing land in Standard. Playing those Diregraf Captains out of Zombies? Not a problem. What about Werewolves, assuming that Block deck eventually ports over? Done. And, in case you have a card or two that isn’t tribal, this thing produces colorless mana too.

As good as advertised... if not better.

If it did just what I described above, the card would be extremely powerful. But instead of stopping there, Wizards decided to make everything uncounterable too. Tell me, Delver players, how does blanking that Mana Leak you held feel? When a Ramp player can slam Titans without fear, it might be time to go over the top, not try to nickel and dime opponents with Spirit Tokens. And going over the top is not something Delver does as well as other decks in the format. When a turn 3 Huntmaster of the Fells can’t be Leaked, it might be time to stop sleeving up Delvers, without at least modifying the deck a significant amount.

Cavern of Souls is the real deal, and I honestly don’t think the Prerelease price of $20 is even that out of line. Tell me what this card doesn’t go in. It’s an auto 4-of in my Modern Merfolk deck. It’s an auto 4-of in Legacy Goblins and Elves. It’s an auto 4-of in Standard Zombies and Werewolves. It’s an auto 4-of in Ramp decks to slam down Titans. It’s an auto 4-of in my freaking casual Treefolk deck, for crying out loud. You need to be prepared for what this is going to do to the format.

Moving on to some other cards. Human Frailty and Righteous Strike both present one-mana options to kill Flipped Delver, so your entire turn isn’t wasted even if your Delver opponent has the Mana Leak. I’m not sure how big of a deal these two cards will turn out to be, but it’s another example of how this set is hurting Delver more than its helping it.

So What’s That Mean?

I’m not saying Delver is going to be a dead deck. Turn 2 flying Wild Nacatls are still good, and so is the plan of slamming equipment onto Hexproof dudes. But I don’t think Delver is going to be the clear top deck any longer without some changes. The deck relied very heavily on Mana Leak and Snapping it back with Snapcaster Mage. Huntmaster was already a problem; it becomes even more so now.

Financially, this means that the best option moving forward for Delver decks has to be Spirits or Hexproof, meaning the safe cards are Drogskol Captain, which has fallen off in price, and Geist of Saint Traft.

On the other side of the table, I see Zombies and Pod decks getting some new tools, and Huntmaster won’t likely be going any lower. Zombies may end up making a real comeback with Cavern to help out the mana and Killing Wave to possibly make an appearance, while Pod obviously gets better with every 187 creature printed.

The metagame is primed to undergo some changes, and there’s going to be money to be made by staying on top of it, which I’ll try my best to do for all of us.

It’s a brave new world in Standard. Learn to love it, or, at the very least, use it to make some cash.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Spoiler Season Rolls On

Posted on by Chad Havas

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Spoiler season continues this week, and we’re starting to see how this set will shape up. As usual, there’s some serious hype about a lot of these cards, and I’ll continue to walk through all the Mythics and Rares I didn’t cover last week. One thing to keep in mind, is what happens when there is a large(r) quantity of chase Rares/Mythics in the set, and how prices come to be. So, for a moment, I want to review exactly how these cards turn into highly priced singles, and then we’ll dive into the newest card previews.

All cards start out as sealed product. Cases cost approximately $600, and a pre-ordered 4x complete set (for a large set) is usually around $1,000. This set is no different. This is a formula that dealers create (knowingly, or not) that sets the initial secondary market pricing. They want to make a profit margin of X, and they need to recoup enough money on the chase Rares and Mythics to cover that margin. As a result, if there’s a large density of expensive Rares and Mythics, more people will buy more cases, and eventually the combined cost of the set as a whole will always revert to this formula.

So, when we start to see multiple Mythics pre-ordering above $40, and rares pre-ordering around $20, we have to imagine the entire collective of valuations is too high. Early in the preview season, we don’t know how dense the set will be with playables, so we hype up the first few playables and the preorder pricing spikes. However it doesn’t come back down when we discover that the set is actually very dense with desirables.
Eventually, we (and more importantly retailers and dealers) start busting packs, and the prices start to equalize. Eventually, it stops being worthwhile for dealers to break open packs, and we see a more natural stabilization of pricing. As a result, even the predictions I made as recently as last week I feel may have been overestimates after seeing what else has come about. Enough of the blathering, onto the spoilers!

Mythic Rares

Entreat the Angels

- SCG Preorder - $4.99

While this card is certainly a splashy application of the Miracle mechanic, I don’t expect this card to hold a $5 value indefinitely, but likely for the short term. It will see some amount of play, but not a ton, as no deck will ever want to draw more than one copy, meaning some control decks may play as many as two copies, but not more. Long term, this will be $3. Comparing it to Decree of Justice is just silly, and as you probably remember we already have White Sun's Zenith in this format which is an Instant, and likely much more playable.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

- SCG Preorder - $39.99

This planeswalker strikes a particular chord with me, as it looks like it fits in the types of decks I like to play, but again, these preorder pricings just simply can’t hold. At 5 mana Tamiyo won’t be a 4-of in any deck, and likely not played beyond 2 copies. The thing she does have going for her is that she’s fairly flexible in application, and both of the effects that she can produce the turn she is cast are fairly strong.

Some people say her +1 is “identical” to Ajani Vengeant, but the slight difference in the ability makes it that much better. While Ajani could prevent a permanent from untapping, it never actually taps the permanent. Tamiyo taps it and prevents it from untapping, making it good at moving blockers and counter mana out of the way when you’re ready to go on the aggressive.

I expect this card to settle around $20-25 over the next 2-3 months, but there’s a chance she stays even higher if she becomes the centerpiece of a popular Standard deck during the PTQ season.

Descent Into Madness

- SCG Preorder price $2.99

This card is essentially unplayable, and will ultimately fall to bulk Mythic pricing in the not too distant future. Only triggering on your turn, and giving your opponent too many ways to make choices to minimize the bleeding makes this card simply awful.

Bonfire of the Damned

- SCG Preorder price $5.99

So the card text matches Lavalanche, but the costing is a little pricier, unless you can live the Miracle. Card is interesting, may see some fringe play in a U/R style control deck, but I doubt it. Being such a cool effect, and likely playable in EDH may float this Mythic around $4, but I wouldn’t expect it to make much of a splash.

Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded

- SCG Preorder price $24.99

This guy has some powerful abilities for a 2-mana Planeswalker. But, he’s clearly very narrow. I also don’t really like how the combination of his abilities don’t have much synergy. He may find a home as a control mirror breaker. Discarding a card at random is not quite as scary when you can safely keep your hand padded at 7 cards to protect cards you want to keep, and blasting your opponent in the face for 5-6 damage is no small number.

If the discard isn’t a drawback (Burning Vengeance maybe?) there may be some even more powerful applications of him. Its too early to tell where he’ll end up, but it will either be very low ($10-12) or very high ($25-30). I’m leaning towards low, but he certainly has some potential, it just depends on what the Standard format reveals.

Before I wrap up, I do want to address at least one of the Rares:

Cavern of Souls
Rare
Land
When Cavern of Souls enters the battlefield, choose a creature type.
T: Add 1 to your mana pool.
T: Add one mana of any color to your mana pool. Use this mana only to cast creature spells of the chosen creature type. That creature can't be countered.

This card is clearly bonkers. It has obvious synergy in a tribal themed deck, but really should just go in almost any deck that plays a reasonable number of creatures, and that number doesn’t even need to be very high. The fact that this land comes into play untapped and produces colorless for any spell, while having the no-life-loss Boseiju, Who Shelters All for Creatures ability, is pretty unreal. I envision this being 3-4x in Wolf-Run Ramp. First copy will name Giant, ensuring that the Primeval Titan will resolve, then if necessary, the titan can grab additional copies of the Cavern, and then protect nearly ever creature in their deck from countermagic.

This card alone means people will have to be playing Ghost Quarter if they need to combat this card. While the Preorder price of $22.99 is likely not going to hold, I expect it to be a minimum of $15 indefinitely. This card has an extreme power level we haven’t seen on a Rare land since Mutavault. This may also mean that Ghost Quarters could spike up during PTQ season, but I’m not too convinced as with two printings they may just be too easy to find. I know I’ll want to play this card, but I’m just not willing to shell out nearly $100 for the playset without knowing what deck it will slot into just yet.

Thanks for joining me on another Spoiler Season adventure. Next week I’ll hit the rest of the Rares and any remaining Mythics that trickle in. I’ve still got my eyes out for quality uncommons, but thus far there’s nothing I want to sink a preorder into yet.

Breaking Into Legacy

Posted on by Mike Lanigan

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A lot of players regard Legacy as the best format in Magic, while many others see it as a dream world completely inaccessible to the masses.

Legacy advocates tend to be long-time players who underestimate how hard it is to acquire the cards necessary to play the format. The truth is that Legacy is a difficult format to break into. This difficulty increases the more recently a player began playing.

Legacy does not, however, have to be as daunting as it may appear. There are strategies that you can employ to get in without breaking the bank or your sanity. With this article I hope to provide valuable information for newer players interested in Legacy who are struggling to break through the fog.

My Journey

I’ll start with the tale of my own path to Legacy.

I learned Magic in college while Scourge was the newest set and rapidly found myself immersed in its wonderful world. My competitive nature drove me to seek more than casual play and before I knew it I was enjoying some early success at prereleases and Standard tournaments. But it was the Friday night tournaments that pulled me farther into the game.

Friday, you see, was Vintage night at the local shop. Note that when I say “Vintage,” I do not mean the kind of card pool you may see at GenCon Vintage Champs. I refer rather to a haphazard collection of random cards from every era of Magic. Although we followed the official Vintage rules, most players did not own any of the Power Nine or other format pillars. These events sported everything from solid Eternal strategies like High Tide to terrible Standard decks. You could never predict what would crop up week to week.

My play group started amassing an enormous collection of older cards. Many of us had play sets of dual lands, [card Force of Will]Force of Wills[/card], Onslaught fetch lands, and a slew of other cards. Back then these cards were cheap. Most of my dual lands cost me about ten dollars each and I traded for my fetches at two or three dollars each before anyone knew they were good. Let’s just say the barrier to entry in Eternal formats was a mite lower in those days.

Unfortunately, my story isn’t all about my cake and how I got to eat it. A few years later life happened and I decided to sell my collection. All I kept were a few Standard cards that weren’t rotating for a while. It wasn’t until two years ago that I began to regret that decision.

Around this time I began to play Magic a lot again, after spurts of high and low levels of involvement. When I befriended some regular Legacy players, I decided it was about time to acquire some older cards again.

Luckily, I had never sold my favorite “Legacy” deck from before, since it wasn’t worth anything at the time (and still isn’t). The deck? Nine Land Green, better known as “Nine Land Stompy.”

In case it wasn’t obvious from the name, the deck only plays nine lands. It can kill remarkably fast with its bevy of [card Rogue Elephant]Rogue Elephants[/card], the miser’s Wild Nacatl. Back then we had nothing comparable to Wild Nacatl or the new dominant force in Legacy, Delver of Secrets, and Rogue Elephant was the biggest, cheapest creature available.

In any case, when Scars of Mirrodin was released, the Infect mechanic seemed to fit well in Nine Land Green. I rebuilt the deck with black mana and a bunch of underpowered Standard cards.

Nine Land Poison: my formal reintroduction to Legacy. Or so I thought. This deck was short-lived in my repertoire, as I only played it in one event. It was a ton of fun killing people on turn two with Invigorate and Berserk, and this tournament ranks with some of my favorite tournaments ever. But with a record of four wins and four losses it hardly sated my appetite for success.

In light of such results, I moved on to another deck. The deck that intrigued me most was Hypergenesis. Its strategy, reminiscent of Reanimator, consists of cheating in an army of huge monsters as quickly as possible. Any cascade card allows you do play Hyergenesis for free, so an ideal hand lets you slam Emrakul the Aeons Torn into play on turn one.

Unfortunately Force of Will still exists and Hypergenesis is pretty weak to free counterspells. Since I didn’t want to abandon the deck, I ported it to the blue version with Show and Tell and its own [card Force of Will]Force of Wills[/card]. That version is much better and actually a decent competitor in the current environment.

Last year, I decided to kick it up a notch and build a more competitive Legacy deck. When I started building Maverick though, it had just hit the scene and wasn't tier one. I choose to build it because I already owned the following cards:

Untitled Deck

4 Noble Hierarch
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Knight of the Reliquary
4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Green Suns Zenith
2 Umezawas Jitte
1 Batterskull
2 Elspeth, Knight Errant
3 Wasteland
2 Arid Mesa
2 Verdant Catacombs
1 Windswept Heath
1 Savannah
1 Gaeas Cradle

Can you see what’s going on here? Breaking into Legacy is a gradual process, but a manageable one. Start with a deck you have cards for already. Try borrowing a deck from a friend to get an idea of which play style suits you best. It may take a year or so, but before long you’ll be brainstorming and wastelanding with the best of them.

If you find yourself drawn to Legacy like I did, I encourage you to begin your journey today. I assure you it is worth the investment, and the earlier you start the faster it will pay off.

Dispelling Myths about Legacy

When I began playing Legacy again, I had some preconceived notions about the format that turned out to be wrong. Realizing these all-too common beliefs were untrue was part of the process of getting acquainted with the format.

So let me take this opportunity to dispel some common myths about Legacy.

Myth 1: Legacy games end on the first three turns of the game.

Lightning-fast combo decks certainly exist in Legacy. There’s a lot of information out there about strategies like Dredge, Storm and Belcher, and it’s true that they’re capable of winning as early as turn one. This is why I believed Infect to be a viable deck and not merely a fun project.

While these decks form part of the metagame, most Legacy games are close to the same length as Standard games. Games in Legacy may play radically differently, but rest assured you will play real Magic like in any other format. I must admit, I still find myself pleasantly surprised by this fact at the Legacy events I attend.

Myth 2: Force of Will will destroy everthing you ever try to do.

Initially I was worried about the [card Force of Will]ubiquitous free counterspell[/card] invalidating deck upon deck. While it does do a number on the combo decks I mentioned (which is why they don’t always dominate tournaments), it does not decide as many matches as I thought it would. Often, two-for-oneing yourself to counter something is a significant handicap. Sometimes its not even correct to pitch your last blue card to Force of Will at all.

Myth 3: There are only a few viable tier-one options.

You may notice certain archetypes top-eighting time and again, but they are usually accompanied by a bunch of other random archetypes that change week to week. Legacy is actually a wide open meta and a deck the fits your play style is almost certainly waiting somewhere for you to discover it.

Examining Maverick

Recently I took my latest build of Maverick out for a spin at a local tournament. After a round one draw I took down three close rounds and finished in second place. Here’s what I played:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Aven Mindcensor
4 Knight of the Reliquary
4 Mother of Runes
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Qasali Pridemage
2 Scavenging Ooze
1 Scryb Ranger
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Terravore
1 Kitchen Finks

Spells

1 Sylvan Library
4 Swords to Plowshares
2 Umezawas Jitte
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
4 Green Suns Zenith

Lands

3 Forest
1 Plains
1 Windswept Heath
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Arid Mesa
2 Horizon Canopy
1 Gavony Township
3 Savannah
1 Razorverge Thicket
3 Wasteland
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Gaeas Cradle
1 Treetop Village

Sideboard

2 Ethersworn Canonist
2 Kitchen Finks
1 Choke
2 Path to Exile
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Gideon Jura
1 Bojuka Bog
3 Silence

Maverick has evolved quite a bit since its first appearance. We can see several of those changes here.

The first iteration of the deck ran Stoneforge Mystic to grab a couple different equipment. Recently, the trend has been to remove the tutor and just play the equipment. I think this trend will soon extend to other decks in Legacy as long as the format continues to move towards midrange aggro decks.

The other change I’m on board with is the addition of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. She seems ridiculously good in Legacy. I cannot think of a matchup where she is bad other than Zoo, and even there she impacts the game by upping the cost of their removal. Againt combo, she is simply their worst nightmare.

I added a couple cards as metagame calls to spice up the deck. They probably deserve a little explanation so I will mention them individually.

Terravore — I knew from the beginning I was going to play this as a one-of. It is basically the fifth Knight of the Reliquary with one major difference: trample. If the game goes late against other aggro-control decks Terravore trumps everything. He’s absolutely gigantic (remember he counts lands in all graveyards) and makes chump blocking useless.

Kitchen Finks — My metagame contains a lot of red decks like Zoo and Mono-Red. This was a call based on what I expected to face. Against any deck trying to attack you, Finks will be solid.

Treetop Village — This land has seen a lot of play over the years and should not be much of a surprise. I like my lands in any format to do more than just tap for mana. Treetop Village gives me a way to search for a creature with Knight of the Reliquary. Including just one manland adds this dimension to the deck.

Gavony Township — If you’ve played with or against Melira Combo in Modern you may have seen the power of this card in action. It may seem like a dumb Standard-only card, but I think its potential is much greater. With Gaeas Cradle you can even activate it early.

The last card I wanted to mention is a relatively new Legacy staple: Scavenging Ooze.

As soon as the Commander decks came out, Scavenging Ooze began appearing in Legacy. He has obvious applications against graveyard strategies and slots perfectly into a deck already running Green Sun's Zenith.

But people are starting to learn that Scavenging Ooze is not just a bullet to search for, but a central part of the deck. He can even outclass the great Tarmogoyf by whittling him down, and he’s less reliant on the graveyard for his large stats. I for one will play three or even four copies of it the next time I play Legacy.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force on Legacy!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

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