Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
The first thing I need to bring up is that today's article contains a spoiler from Modern Horizons, so if you don't want any spoilers before the set releases don't read any further.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
I chose to write about Yawgmoth, Thran Physician for two main reasons: he is one of Magic's greatest and longest-running villains, and because when he was spoiled a lot of our Discord chat focused on what decks he would go well into. It's that second point that inspired me most, but not for the reason you might think.
We often see two different types of price spikes when it comes to Commander cards:
- Cards that clearly play well with another commander
When this happens you may get some smaller gains on other staples to the actual commander, as players rebuild or build the deck and simply slot the new card into it. The new card might even boost the power level of the deck as a whole, which may cause additional gains on hard to find staples.
However, what's important to remember is that when a new card slots into an existing deck it doesn't always inspire a ton of brewing. Players simply go through their decklist and likely pull one of the weakest cards and replace it with the new card. - Cards that demand a deck be built around them
These are my favorite and the ones that drive a lot of price jumps and thus a lot of gains for those who find the cards most likely to be "staples" in said deck. This is the category I've had the most success in when it comes to Commander speculation gains.
Several of our fellow Insiders immediately jumped on cards like Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons because she plays extremely well with Yawgmoth, Thran Physician. However, Hapatra already caused a fair number of older cards like Harbinger of Night to jump up in value back when she was originally spoiled.
As you can see by the graph, this card's price jumped dramatically and then settled back down to about half its pre-spike price. If you invested in these with your out being buylists, you likely made very little money. This is all thanks to the fact that buylist prices lag behind spikes, which allow prices to stabilize.
So if you assume that Yawgmoth will simply be one of the 99 in other Commander decks, you may be disappointed in most specs you pick up. Commander players tend to suffer from "Tiny New Toy Syndrome" more than any other group of players, so I don't expect we'll see many gains on cards that go in decks with a different Commander.
Instead, I think it's important to look at ol' Yawggy as a powerful new Commander. He serves as a "free" sacrifice outlet, a card draw engine, and even provides one of Magic's more powerful mechanics in proliferate. His first ability is arguably more powerful, but it requires a steady stream of creatures. Yawgmoth is mono-black, barring access to white, which is typically the color that provides the most token producing cards. However, this color restriction actually opens the door to potential speculation targets.
While these cards may not be powerful enough to fit into a B/W token deck, we are required to find alternatives to the standard token staples. In fact, when you think of mono-black token Commander decks there really aren't a lot of choices. This is the best one, and also my favorite speculation target for Yawgmoth decks.
Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder is the perfect card for this style of deck. It provides continuous free token creatures to be sacrificed for profit. There are currently three printings of this card: Time Spiral, Modern Masters 2015, and Commander 2013. Only two of those have foil printings and at the time of writing, foils are in the $1.50-$2 range (full disclosure: I bought 18 foils between the two printings when this card was spoiled). The fact that you want to be casting a lot of creatures to get the additional tokens plays perfectly with Yawgmoth's ability, as they provide additional fodder.
Dictate of Erebos is another mono-black staple commonly seen in B/x token decks already. Mono-black decks tend to love Grave Pact and its variants. Dictate of Erebos is the closest option we have to a second copy, and unlike Grave Pact it only has a single printing as opposed to the seven that Grave Pact has. Amazingly, foil copies of this card are barely more expensive than the regular versions, which is usually indicative of a future price increase. I was able to pick up two copies for $11.99 each when the regular versions are almost $9, making these foils seem criminally underpriced. Though it doesn't affect gameplay, the artwork on this card in foil is gorgeous.
While Vindictive Vampire is only an uncommon it does seem like it's a perfect fit in this deck. Given Yawgmoth's "free" sacrifice effect still requires you to pay life, one would need a continual source of life gain. This card provides that as well as serving as a potential win condition. I don't tend to go too deep on standard legal uncommons as Commander investments, because of their extremely high supply, but the foils of this card seem very underpriced. In fact, they are so low that you currently can't buy most of them without purchasing something else from a vendor, due to the $2 minimum on TCGPlayer.
The same reasoning behind Vindictive Vampire applies to Zulaport Cutthroat, except Cutthroat was reprinted once in Masters 25. This also has a lower converted mana cost which is typically seen as a benefit. Keep in mind this card was printed in Battle for Zendikar, which was opened in record numbers due to the search for Expeditions.
Genesis Chamber is an uncommon that was sitting at $2.50 for almost three years until was reprinted. One of the challenges I'm having in building this deck is looking for cards that continually generate tokens, ideally for free. Genesis Chamber is especially interesting, because of the fact that your opponents also benefit from it. This has usually been a major detriment. However, as Yawgmoth can continually kill those tokens for the cost of your own while netting you a card and a death trigger, the downside is mostly mitigated.
Battlebond foils are sitting under $2, making them a bit difficult to purchase en masse due to that $2 minimum purchase requirement. However, it may be worth paying a little extra, as I expect this card will likely be an auto-include in Yawgmoth decks. Especially so, when these foils could easily double or triple in price.
Conclusion
While many might see Yawgmoth, Thran Physician as a 1 of 99er, I think he is very likely to inspire decks to be built around him. I also believe that the cards listed above are all fairly likely to find their way into said deck and may see price increases because of that. Researching for this article showed me that there are simply not that many mono-black token Commander decks. In fact, the only one I found was the Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder decks which mainly had other cards that gave you something to do with those tokens. Yawgmoth provides that and, instead of creatures, requires as many token generators as it can get.
![Insider: QS Cast #123 – Mythic Sparking Fiasco [Unlocked]](https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/1555962272Screen_Shot_2019-04-22_at_3.20_.57_PM_.png)
However, that doesn't appear to have happened so far. As of writing, roughly half the set has been spoiled, and nothing strikes me as overpowered. 
The first theme spoiled was the return of snow. 
However, that's not the whole story; with three more snow permanents, the Snake gains deathtouch. This turns Coatl into an arguably better Baleful Strix, and Strix is an absurd card. In Legacy, Stix is arguably the best removal spell in the format; it cantrips, trades with everything, walls off Gurmag Angler and Eldrazi, and pitches to Force of Will. Every non-combo Dimir-friendly deck runs a set.
To be a better Strix, Coatl needs a lot of snow, and by extension, playable snow permanents. But there aren't. Now, there is no opportunity cost for running snow basics over regular basics. They're necessary in a deck that cares about snow and identical to regular basics in a deck that doesn't. Therefore, a Coatl deck could just run a set of Coatls and tons of Snow-Covered Islands and Snow-Covered Forests and call it a day. However, this strategy would lose the mana fixing of shocklands. Since a normal Modern manabase only has ~6 basics, running Coatl puts a lot of pressure on the mana.
Edit: Shortly before this article went to press, two new snow permanents were spoiled. Both are potentially playable, however it won't be in the same deck as Coatl. Arcum's Astrolabe is a one-mana egg, and will only see play in a combo deck. What combo deck is unclear since Krark-Clan Ironworks is banned, but that's the only style of deck that wants something like Astrolabe. While a mana fixing egg may up your snow count, it's not the sort of card that midrange decks historically want to play.
The snow lands add further tension. Fetching one of each basic ensures all colors, but makes it hard to cast Liliana of the Veil or flashback Assassin's Trophy.
despite this because it couldn't disrupt the opponent. Merfolk runs counterspells and Spreading Seas, where Slivers just has creatures. This put Slivers in the same lane as the faster Affinity, and now means it competes with Humans.
So far, the new Slivers have all been buffers rather than disruptors. This probably means that Slivers will remain fringe. If that isn't the case, it will be because of Cloudshredder Sliver, though I'm skeptical. Haste and flying for two mana should decrease the kill turn, assuming Cloudshredder survives to attack. The ideal curve is probably turn one Aether Vial; turn 2 Vial in a one mana Sliver, cast Cloudshredder and attack for 2; turn three cast another one drop and Sinew Sliver, Vial in Predatory Sliver, and attack for 15. That could be lethal. However, any removal just kills that curve, and if that's not good, enough what is?
The tribal support doesn't end with Slivers. The card that I'm most excited about is Goblin Matron. 
With part of the set spoiled, we at last have a pretty good idea of what Horzions is supposed to look like. In short, Wizards has taken to reinventing or updating older cards with contemporary text and refined flavor rather than just reprinting all-stars from Vintage and Legacy. The result is a batch of cards that generate nostalgia while providing a novel play experience. Flavor-wise, it turns out Cabal Therapist truly was a harbinger of things to come.
Morophon, the Boundless: Let's start with the card designed to help every tribe. Morophon strikes me as more of a combo card than anything else, and one destined for Commander at that. But I think we will see it poke its weird head out in Modern from time to time. Free mana is just too alluring to ignore, and the format features plenty of ways to get this down early.
Munitions Expert: On to the Goblin support. Goblin Matron is a bit pricey for Modern, 
Undead Augur: This Zombie buff is less exciting, but good nonetheless, further punishing opponents for interacting with the deck's threats. It's a high-priority target for removal spell decks, but getting it off the table results in a minus, and Augur is cheap enough to make the exchange worthwhile for the tribal deck most of the time. We've seen Zombies put up 
The First Sliver: Slivers, though, are Horizons's most pushed tribe. This Sliver Queen update staples an ability to the body that's actually worth five mana, and has intriguing implications for building around; players can even fit an Ancestral Vision or two into their deck and guarantee that the next couple Slivers they cast also draw them three cards, for example. Besides, there's a relatively simple way to bust it out:
Dregscape Sliver: Besides the potential combo with The First Sliver, giving all the dead Slivers unearth makes Dregscape a heck of a comeback card. This creature mounts alpha-strikes from beyond the grave in the mid-game, so long as opponents can't remove it immediately. And if they can, Slivers still gets to reanimate one threat.
Cloudshredder Sliver: Both of those creatures pale, though, next to Cloudshredder Sliver, an update of the long-awaited Heart Sliver that tacks on the tribe's next-best creature, Galerider Sliver. Like Zombies, 
Scale Up: Let's be real—nobody's playing Wurm tribal. Scale Up is the most overt Infect support of all time. Perhaps pushing that deck is Wizards' answer to 
Scrapyard Recombiner: This one is more tentative, but I've heard players discuss it in Hardened Scales. It may have a home there as a tutor to multiple engine and payoff cards, as Modular helps forgive its steep price.
Prismatic Vista: Vista might help snow keep its head above water, and could shruggingly slot into two-color decks with plenty of basics like UW Control. But this card seems more to me like a budget consideration for players who don't want to buy the right fetches.
Canopy lands: As I see it, the Canopy lands—an enemy-colored cycle of lands with Horizon Canopy's effect—are the most important card spoiled so far. These will be run in decks across multiple archetypes, including midrange (BG Rock) and aggro-combo (Infect). While I don't expect the canopy lands to shake Modern up as a flexible answer or powerful threat might, they will have a sweeping, if subtle, effect on deck construction.
Regrowth: I imagine there's a deck in the market for Eternal Witness with little use for the body, but I sure as heck can't think of it. Regrowth may well find its way into a combo strategy down the road, though.
Genesis: Another great card without a home, Genesis may make it into fair deck sideboards as a value engine, especially alongside Faithless Looting. But there are probably better options in that role, colors depending. I'm excited to see where Genesis lands.
Flusterstorm: Move over, Force of Negation! Flusterstorm is one of the tools 
Nimble Mongoose: Speaking of thresh, here's the card that inspired me to build 
Fact or Fiction: Kids These Days Will Never Understand EOTFOFYL. Or will they? Having played against Fact a little online, I'll confirm that the piles are still excruciating to make. I'll also mention that flashing back my opponent's Fact with Dire Fleet Daredevil, the Human protected from Spell Snare via Domri, Anarch of Bolas, was some of the most fun I've had playing Magic lately. Fact will definitely see play, for one reason (winning) or another (giggling). I think UR Moon and UW Control are its most natural homes, although it's also possible we see Fact as a one- or two-of in the sideboard of more aggressive interactive blue decks 
Force of Negation: The breakout "answer card" of the set, Negation's purpose is to prevent early wins from linear combo strategies. It looks like a sideboard card to me, and I doubt it replaces Disrupting Shoal in the decks that want that instant; countering creatures is too important. Like Force of Will, though, Negation will affect the format's complexion by virtue of existing.
Force of Vigor: Another combo-breaker, Vigor has been noted for bailing players out of 
Urza, Lord High Artificer: Urza is generating hype for its interaction with the Thopter-Sword combo, which lets players make infinite mana, gain infinite life, and draw their deck. I think the card will end up like Prime Speaker Vannifar, another niche 1/4, in an artifact-based deck as an enabler and payoff. But in that respect, it's probably weaker than Sai, Master Thopterist, which is a win condition on its own.
Goblin Engineer: This reference-packed mashup of Goblin Welder and Stoneforge Mystic is expertly-designed, setting up combos at a reasonable pace on its own or combining with the likes of Trash for Treasure to cheat fatties like Sundering Titan and Wurmcoil Engine into play early. If Engineer sees play outside of a Thopter-Sword build, where it super-tutors for the Sword, it'll be in its own deck, and I can't wait to see what that looks like.
Seasoned Pyromancer: My personal favorite card of the set, this card combines an absurd amount of value on a creature. One nice thing about Pyro is that most of its value, the loot and the tokens, is locked-in upon resolution. We're left with lots of power/toughness for our trouble, but on an expendable body. Expect to see more on Pyro from me in the coming weeks!
Collected Conjuring: What exactly are we hitting with this? Serum Visions? Modern isn't exactly known for its high density of cheap, busted sorceries. At four mana, even ripping costless suspend cards like Ancestral Vision seems like more work than assembling a shell with As Foretold or Finale of Promise.
Mox Tantalite: I'm not one to dismiss nerfed moxen outright, having spent a good deal of time 
Giver of Runes: Giver's no Mother. Untap with her and she can still be Bolted, Pushed, you name it. Realistically, Giver is like a one-mana Spellskite that gives up the latter's disruptive effects; Runes doesn't do anything against Infect or Temur Battle Rage.
Aria of Flame: Yesterday, in an online Horizons room, my opponent stormed off as I occupied myself with other apps for a few minutes. He ended on Aria of Flame. Granted, I lost the game, failing to find a third land drop (or red source) to compliment my Arbor Elves and pair of Forests over something like six turn cycles. But with me doing nothing, it took my opponent six turns to kill me. I'll happily blame Aria. Storm doesn't need this card, and neither does anyone else.
Fire is a fairly brainless card, and once the engine gets going, the whole thing plays itself. On my end, everything became very rote and mechanical. Every turn: throw some Fire at something, get it back, none of my other cards do anything at this point so say go, repeat until the game's over. My opponents either just kept doing what they were doing (Tron, Ironworks, sometimes Spirits) or were gradually snowed under with nothing to do (Humans, the other times with Spirits). Those games proved frustrating, tedious, and boring for opponents.
Everything that I found atrocious about Fire's gameplay, he embraced. Ideally, he wants every game to be a lengthy, close, hard to win/easy to lose grind fest that taxes him mentally and physically to the limit. Which was the reality of his test matches. He says that on his end, it was like playing a combination of 3D Chess and a Rubik's Cube using 90's adventure-game logic. Winning was mind-meltingly hard, and the correct lines were non-obvious and convoluted. While it won't be majority, there will be plenty of players that would genuinely enjoy playing against Fire in Modern.
better cards at every stage of the game. Fire is never the best card; the value comes though continuous use. What Jund really wants to do is fire off a few disruption spells then start ramming home better threats to quickly close out the game. Going long is possible, but not its thing.
However, Punishing Fire could solve many Assault Loam's problems. As 
Based on the Spirits and Humans matchup, I don't expect Fire to be that great against creature decks. Back in 2011, creatures were so much worse that a repeatable two damage for three mana was oppressive. These days, we have rapidly growing 1/1s, hexproof creatures, and more cheap x/3s. A single Fire isn't that threatening. When multiple get going, it can be devastating. However, Magic has evolved enough that even a recursive four damage for five mana isn't that threatening for aggro decks. Decks like Merfolk would suffer, but they are struggling to stay relevant anyway. I think the anti-aggro argument isn't strong anymore.
combo is very slow, this will lengthen matches. Post-board, graveyard hate becomes essential. Against aggro decks, Loam potentially gets an improved Flame Jab to protect itself. It's hard to believe it turns the matchup around, but would stretch the game out and make aggro work harder.
The Fire player has an untapped Grove and Fire in the graveyard. Their opponent has Extraction. The opponent can't just Extract the Fire, because in response, Grove will save it. Fire also can't just be retrieved, because there's only one Grove and one trigger. So both players enter into a standoff, trying to force an opening. The opponent is looking to force Fire to tap the Grove; Fire hopes to present a more pressing target for the Extraction. As a mental game, it is fascinating and enjoyable. However, it also tends to extend match length, since both players have to carefully and continually consider their moves and their opponent's counter moves while assessing whether to continue the dance.
However, the Thopter combo has two saving graces. The first is that it is cleanly shortcutable: You simply declare how many tokens you're making at a time, skip going through all the steps, and gain life in a lump sum. You can't just declare a Fire loop; you do have to go through most of the motions. You can shortcut the triggers, but you will have to actually cast the Fire(s) and mark all the life total changes individually for proper tournament procedure. Also, there's no timing weirdness with Thopter combo.
The immediate effect, for planeswalkers to be printable, always costs more than that effect on an instant or sorcery. Take Ajani Vengeant's Lightning Helix at two extra mana, or Gideon Jura's six-mana Vengeance. If the cost of the walker were the same as the cost of the spell it immediately cast, there would be no reason to play the original spell at all.
Inevitability. This mode of LTV pressures opponents to deal with the walker by threatening something menacing down the road. That could be re-use of its initial mode, like Liliana of the Veil, or a game-winning ultimate, like Liliana, the Last Hope. Of course, a horde of Zombies might break a midrange slog wide-open, but decks like Storm could care less; therefore, the inevitability of a given effect varies depending on the matchup. Inevitability often takes the form of a "suspend X" effect (e.g. Ancestral Visions), wherein opponents may attack the walker to increase the suspend count.
Let's be real—five mana for any of Teferi's immediate effects is a steep price. But the walker does protect himself from menacing creatures, and can start with a relatively high loyalty count if needed. That he costs closer to three mana in practice also increases his power, but further limits his splashability, as few decks can afford to make five land drops before dropping Teferi into play. The walker's effects do everything that UW Control could ever want, providing both inevitability and a stunning amount of gradual advantage.
Generally costing a functional three mana thanks to Urza's Tower and its cronies, Karn Liberated boasts a power level obscene enough to single-handedly grant the Tron deck 
...That is, unless it's in a different suit! Karn, the Great Creator features a laughably small power level next to big brother, but more than makes up on our other metrics. Power-wise, Creator suffers in a few ways. Its +1 is only relevant in certain decks, and nothing to write home about regardless. Karn's -2 is as strong as the artifacts lying dormant in the sideboard, but with a catch: pilots need to cast those, too. All that mana quickly adds up, making Karn, the Great Creator a pricey inclusion.
Besides Mycosynth, Karn has a nigh-limitless arsenal at its disposal: artifact hate like Relic of Progenitus; recursive utility like Crucible of Worlds; surgical answers like Sorcerous Spyglass; pseudo-board wipes like Ratchet Bomb. 
Brainstorm is probably the most powerful cantrip in Magic after Ancestral Recall; AJ Sacher 
Jace pulls much of his flexibility from his whopping four abilities. In a deck loaded with interaction, Brainstorm itself provides a good deal of flexibility; being able to grow Jace out of damage range with its +2, create gradual advantage both offensively or defensively, impact the board, and eventually win the game by itself also help. But Jace isn't much good at impacting the board, and is a largely miserable play when players find themselves behind.
Since her printing, Liliana of the Veil has been Modern's premier planeswalker, and for good reason. Just one more mana for Diabolic Edict, a card we 
