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The New is the Old: Metagame Analysis

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The Modern format is so diverse, both quantitatively and competitively, that it can prove tough to quantify; certain players subsequently claim there is no metagame, while others focus only on tournament-winning decks. Each approach lacks some degree of nuance. Today, I'm trying to bring some of it back.

I was thrilled when I heard that Channelfireball was publishing the full list of Day 2 decks from GP Toronto: I'd have the data to really dig into the metagame for the first time in a while. Then, I got scooped. Oh well, at least the hard and tedious data entry work is done. Also, I don't agree with everything that Tobi Henke said, so consider this not only an analysis, but a response article. We'll parse the data a different way and examine the metagame quirks that make Modern unique.

Toronto Metagame

For the first time I can remember, we have Day 1 data from a GP. Long have we lamented its lack, since there's no other way to know the starting population of a tournament. Without that, it's impossible to tell if the Day 2 metagame is a deviation from metagame trends or a simply function of that stating population. The former merits deeper exploration.

The most striking aspect of Toronto's Day 1 data is how it mirrors and deviates from the actual metagame, as compiled by MTGTop8. Taking the decks with 4% share or more in the overall metagame and comparing to their Toronto share shows consistency in the top decks with significant deviation elsewhere. It isn't a perfect comparison, but that is to be expected. The entire metagame is an aggregate of all the data that gets reported to MTGTop8, while Toronto's data is just that one event.

Deck NameMetagame Share %Toronto Day 1 %
Burn1011.45
Izzet Phoenix98.14
Dredge75.09
Death's Shadow74.33
Spirits64.20
Tron54.83
UW Control44.45
Humans 42.80
Affinity41.53

Worth noting is that the sample is only 60% of the starting decklists, but that sample is still large enough to be considered valid. The remaining 40% would have to contain major outliers to substantially change the data or my conclusions.

Burn is on top in both rankings, followed by Izzet Phoenix and Dredge. Burn, Phoenix, Tron, and UW Control all surfaced in proportion to their metagame shares. Other aggro decks were severely underrepresented in Toronto. Dredge is also down from it's overall share, but maintained its 3rd place position. It's natural for there to be variation between overall stats and localized stats, as regional differences exist. However, this particular result is worth looking into.

Going Deep

The decks that maintained their share in Toronto are the two It Decks, Burn and Phoenix, and two stalwart decks, Tron and UW Control. Every creature deck was well below their share.

I speculate that the two results are linked. Burn and Phoenix have very good matchups against creature decks; the former thanks to its speed and interaction, and the latter because of Thing in the Ice. Mulitple early Phoenixes are certainly hard to race, but they're not a guarantee. Resolving and flipping Thing is far more certain against the removal-light creature decks and devastatingly effective as both a sweeper, tempo swing, and huge threat. The fact that both predator decks are getting the press right now would have turned some players off playing creatures. These trends don't impact Tron or UW Control, so they were free to keep on keeping on.

Conversion Rate Fallacy

That being said, the Day 2 data is in many ways more interesting. However, I disagree with how Henke looks at the data. He organized his chart and subsequently based his conclusion around the Day 2 conversion rate. Doing so gives an inaccurate conclusion: Henke says that Izzet Phoenix is arguably the best deck in Modern, while Burn isn't good. His evidence seems to hold up, but the overall conclusion is flawed.

That the most popular decks also have poor Day 2 conversion rates isn't new. In fact, it's par for the course. Part of this is simply statistical probability. The more of a given deck there is in the field, the more likely they are to meet each other, and there can be only one winner. Additionally, popular decks are ones players have on their radar, and have presumably brought hate for. Thus, the more popular decks, in a reasonably fair metagame, should have mediocre-at-best conversion rates.

Conversely, it is natural for unpopular decks to do well on conversion. If only two players pilot a deck and one makes the cut, that's a 50% rate. They're also more likely to be specialists of that deck. Mastery is key to success in Modern, and there's no greater master than an enthusiast. Conversion rates are therefore not inherently a measure of success or failure for any deck.

The Day 2 Difference

I'm looking at the actual numbers that made Day 2 rather than their conversion rates. Looking at all the decks with 7 copies or more is very suggestive of the overall metagame.

Deck NameTotal
Others27
Izzet Phoenix24
Burn18
Dredge13
Amulet Titan11
Humans10
Tron8
Hardened Scales7
RG Valakut7
Spirits7
Jeskai Control7

The most indicative results is that "Others" is the top result, reflective of how diverse Modern really is. It also backs up my earlier argument about low population decks, because the Others category was for every deck in the initial sample with fewer than 8 pilots. Rogue decks flying under the radar get a lot of wins thanks to confusion.

The top three individual decks are still on top, but now Phoenix displaces Burn for the top slot. That they're still on top reaffirms their overall metagame power and potential. The fact that Phoenix surpassed Burn is almost certainly drag caused by Light Up the Stage, as Henke argued. I mentioned last week that it hasn't been impressive against me, and it appears that it simply isn't necessary at all. Once Burn players get the memo, I'd expect their win rates to go back up.

Amulet Titan suddenly appears in the data and Humans has dramatically improved its position. That Humans is doing well in the standings reaffirms the deck's actual power, despite its apparent drop-off in metagame charts. Amulet suddenly appearing is to be expected. It is not and has never been a popular deck, but it has a very dedicated following. These devotees will have an advantage over other players just from experience. The same could be said for the rest of the sample.

The Metagame Truth

One conclusion that could be reached from this data is that the data derived metagame picture is remarkably accurate. However, it is also possible to look at how many decks fall under the Others category, see that power rankings have no relationship to what actually wins tournaments, and conclude that Modern doesn't have a metagame. If anything could win at any time and there's no guarantee of seeing a given deck in a tournament, how can there be a metagame? I think both of these viewpoints miss the big picture: Modern has a metagame, but it works differently than other formats.

Standard has a very defined and predictable metagame. Every time a new set is released, the metagame changes as decks gain or lose viability. Within a week or two, the heavy hitters will be well established, the matchups and sideboarding strategies will be worked out, and players will know what they're taking to tournaments. Every subsequent week until the next set release is about minor adjustments based on expected populations. The meta is stable and predictable.

Legacy is defined by Brainstorm vs. Anti-Brainstorm decks. The former are decks that play lots of cantrips and low land counts, seeking to find the most powerful cards in the format. The later all attack the former, either by shutting down some aspect of their deck or ignoring them. This has proven to be a very stable equilibrium for a long time, and the metagame doesn't shift very much. Individual decks in each category can change, but they're not that different from predecessors.

In contrast, Modern apparently has a constantly shifting metagame. Since Splinter Twin was banned, there hasn't been a deck that sat atop the rankings for more than a year. Decks rise and fall constantly. However, they don't disappear after falling from grace. Instead, they settle into the metagame and become Just Another Deck. Death's Shadow was 2017's boogeyman; Humans was in 2018. Neither is anything special anymore, but they're still doing well. This is the key to Modern: decks of the same tier have the same power level. Their ranking within the tier is primarily determined by popularity. The new deck rises, players learn how to beat it, they succeed, and the deck fades from view. Barring bannings, the metagame just absorbs decks, and they become no big deal. The key to understanding the metagame in Modern lies in recognizing which tier a deck belongs to and planning accordingly.

No Best Deck

In this context, the idea that a Best Deck exists in Modern is false. It is more accurate to say that at any given point, a deck is more visible and popular while being better positioned than others. New decks attract attention and players away from established decks. This magnetism inflates their presence in tournaments. Once the initial surprise wears off, players will learn how to play against it. If the deck has enough inherent power, it can maintain it's position for a time, but the rest of the format will target it and it will be brought down. Subsequently, if it has a unique niche, it will simply become part of the metagame in a tier equal to its power vis-Ă -vis the rest of Modern.

Popularity Contest

Looking at the big ticket events since Guilds of Ravnica released shows Arclight Phoenix having a huge impact on Modern. It's consistently placing well and at a very high rate. Nothing appears to prey on it, so how couldn't it be the best deck in Modern?

First of all, the exact same thing was said of Death's Shadow, to the point that there were calls for a ban. Secondly, that's only true of some events. The February 17 MOCS was dominated by Dredge, who took home half the Top 8; Izzet Phoenix failed to crack the Top 16. The Mythic Qualifier in Strasbourg was all about BG Rock, not Phoenix. New, visible, and popular decks naturally do well in big events because lots of players pick them up.

Double-Edged Sword

This popularity comes at a price: chiefly, a big target on the deck. Grixis Death's Shadow didn't suffer an actual power drop or lose cards and subsequently disappear from Modern. Instead, the format adapted, and its relative power diminished. Players learned how to fight back and eventually defeat the deck. The same thing happened with Humans and Spirits. Saying a deck is good because it is doing well is not meaningful. Any popular deck will necessarily do well. The key is longevity. Once everyone adapts to Phoenix, will it remain a factor? My guess is yes, because every other recent new deck has, but there's no way to know.

Modern's Different

The actual best decks in Modern are those that last year after year, despite no attention. Burn is the classic example. Despite peaks and throughs of popularity and visibility, it always performs. The same is true of Tron or UW Control. The New Hotness is just that, and it will eventually cool. The question is whether it can join the long-timers in the high tiers or just fades away.

Tales from the Buylist #2 – Examining Kaladesh

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Famed for creating some of the most disliked Standard gameplay environments in recent history, Kaladesh is still fresh on the minds of many players since its rotation last October. Throughout its life in Standard, this set sported some of the most powerful and problematic cards to ever grace FNM. It's been over two years since its release, with many of the cards seeing a lot of price movement over the past five months. These days, a good chunk of Kaladesh sees play in eternal formats like Modern and Commander.

Kaladesh

We are living in a post-Arena world. A new non-rotating format is almost assuredly on the horizon. The work of making these cards function in Arena’s closed beta was done, and I can’t imagine Wizards of the Coast letting that all those assets go to waste.

While many point to an Ixalan-and-forward format, I think there’s a decent chance that we see Kaladesh be the starting point. Even if I’m wrong here, there are still a lot of applications for these cards in terms of playability, both casual and competitive. That being said, I think an examination of some key cards from the set is in order.

The Fastlands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blooming Marsh

There was an error retrieving a chart for Botanical Sanctum

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spirebluff Canal

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inspiring Vantage

There was an error retrieving a chart for Concealed Courtyard

Perhaps the most important rares in the set are the enemy-colored Fastlands. Many Modern lists have adopted these along with their Scars of Mirrodin counterparts to great success, seeing play in multiples for most two-color decks. All of these are great pickups at their current prices and will be easy includes in my proposed format.

Spirebluff Canal is currently the most prominent of these as it is one of the better lands to play in Izzet Phoenix. While not fetchable by Scalding Tarn, being able to shave on Steam Vents and saving two or more life over the course of a game can be very relevant. Outside of Spirebluff, the available supply of these is quite high at sub $10 prices.

The Gearhulk Cycle

There was an error retrieving a chart for Torrential Gearhulk

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cataclysmic Gearhulk

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noxious Gearhulk

There was an error retrieving a chart for Verdurous Gearhulk

There was an error retrieving a chart for Combustible Gearhulk

This cycle of artifact creatures at mythic rarity is worthy of review as well. Save for Combustible Gearhulk, these were all powerhouses at one time or another in Standard and see fringe play in eternal formats. Cataclysmic Gearhulk is currently seeing play in Modern UW sideboards.

First and foremost, I believe these cards have great casual appeal as they all have very powerful and fun effects. The buy-in for these is very low for a cycle of mythics that should experience modest growth over the next few years. Note that Verdurous Gearhulk's supply is far greater than the others due to its Challenger Deck printing and might be the one to avoid if you’re looking for substantial gains. Torrential Gearhulk is my pick for the best of these, for its big-boned impression of Snapcaster Mage and its ability to do some real damage on an empty board. Noxious Gearhulk is probably the least exciting of these, but being able to blow up a creature on ETB is nothing to scoff at.

Planeswalkers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Torch of Defiance

I really like this cycle, as the four planeswalkers of this set are all available at $10 or under at time of writing. Chandra, Torch of Defiance is chief among this cycle as she sees a significant amount of play in Modern and Legacy, and is just an overall powerful card. This too was a Challenger Deck reprint as a one-of, but I feel there’s still a lot of room for this card to grow in the coming months, especially with more premiere level events featuring Modern coming up this year.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Vital Force

Nissa, Vital Force is currently seeing play as a one-of in the sideboard of the BG Rock deck in Modern, and has the added benefit of being one of the most popular characters in Magic’s history. She can close out games incredibly quickly with her first ability and will probably be one of the better sideboard options for a lot of green decks in the format for years to come.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dovin Baan

Dovin Baan… well, he’s a card, I guess. I’d probably stay away from this one, as he competes with the likes of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria for a slot in UW decks. However, you can find copies of this card for under a dollar if you look hard enough. Historically speaking, bad planeswalkers still have a chance to chart upward, albeit very slowly. Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded which is widely considered to be the worst planeswalker of all time is a great example of this.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai

Last, but certainly not least, is Saheeli Rai. This is by far the most interesting card of these, as it is part of a two-card infinite combo with Felidar Guardian that sees fringe play in Modern. Aside from the combo applications, copying creatures with ETB abilities and getting to swing with them in the same turn is potent. At around $3.50 a piece, this is a very attractive target.

Commander Staples

Kaladesh has a metric ton of Commander staples, but here are my favorites. I'll note that foil versions of these cards will be preferred (and the graphs below reflect those prices), as nearly anything in the set is susceptible to a Commander 20XX reprint.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Panharmonicon

Aside from the fastlands, I believe Panharmonicon could be the most important card in this set as an investment target. The Commander crowd absolutely adores this card, and it’s not hard to see why. Doubling Season is probably the closest comparison you could make here in terms of casual appeal. People really love it when a card does the thing, and then it does it again. Since the rotation of Kaladesh, Panharmonicon has seen slow but steady growth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rashmi, Eternities Crafter

Rashmi is one of the better commanders to come out of the set, and can really do some busted stuff. Essentially adding cascade to every spell is fun and can really swing games in your favor if you hit the right cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gonti, Lord of Luxury

This card is currently seeing a bit of upward movement, and will definitely be on the rise for the foreseeable future. I would act sooner rather than later on this one.

Energy Cards

Honestly, most of these cards have nowhere to go but up, but I don’t think they’ll be moving in that direction very fast. While the card pool in a format in a format like Modern is very vast, these cards are locked into playing with each other almost exclusively and are not very powerful in comparison to many of the strategies available.

Due to the Standard bannings of Aetherworks Marvel, Rogue Refiner, and Attune with Aether, I very seriously doubt that we’ll see this mechanic return in a future Standard set, or even a supplementary product. However, I would point to these as potentially being incredibly powerful in a Kaladesh onward format, should Wizards decide to let them run free. Aetherworks Marvel is very good at putting fatties in to play at a brisk clip, is available for as low as 69 cents, and is begging to be broken in Modern.

Masterpieces and Sealed Product

I would be remiss to fail to mention these! The Masterpiece Series Inventions available in Kaladesh include many of the staple mana rocks that are played in eternal formats, most notably Commander, and are often the most premium versions of those cards.

While these have taken off from the standard $100 price point long ago, I’m very surprised to find sealed boxes of this set to be widely available on avenues like eBay and Amazon for under $200. Of course, you’re not guaranteed an Invention in every box, but the chance of a hit will continue to drive the box price upward. If you’re solely looking to pick these up to play the Masterpiece lottery, sealed foreign boxes of this set are pretty close to $100 from various sources. All Masterpieces were only printed in English, making foreign boxes the lowest buy-in available.

Wrapping Up

I feel like there are so many opportunities in this set for great returns, but the vast supply of these cards is a bit of a double-edged sword. The buy-in for many of these cards is super low, but the returns are likely not very high given the short term.

To reiterate my earlier point, I think the fastlands are going to be the most desirable cards here and will have the most room to grow overall. Pick these up sooner rather than later, as these all could easily be more than double the price in a year’s time. Panharmonicon is a Commander staple, and undoubtedly will see growth over time. There aren't too many cards outside of the ones I mentioned above that are worth a look, but it is worth noting that the cards in the vehicle cycle like Smuggler's Copter could be spec targets for some. I'm not completely sold on them at the moment.

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments, or if there's anything you think I missed!

Peace!

Is Power 9 a Good Investment?

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Not long ago I ran a somewhat controversial poll on Twitter, inspired by internal discussions within the Quiet Speculation Discord.

No no, not that one! Though I am curious to hear what others think—134 votes is surprisingly high for such a silly poll, but I question The Fallen’s dominance. By the way, financially speaking, Rag Man is the most relevant of the three.

The poll I’m referring to is this one:

This deceptively simple question, seven words in length, created a bit of a stir on Twitter. After a whopping 380 votes, the poll came out nearly dead-even. If someone were to run statistics on these results, I wonder if there’d be a statistically significant difference between “Yes” and “No."

Why is this such a complex question despite its face-value simplicity? This week I’ll peel the layers back on this question and share both community sentiment as well as my own thoughts.

Controversy 1: Define “Good”

The return on investment yielded by the Power 9 over the past 5, 10, and 25 years can be described as phenomenal. Here are some prices for Unlimited Black Lotus, with values pre-2012 coming from InQuest magazine issues. Values from 2012 onward come from MTG Stocks.

May 1995: $150
March 2000: $275
January 2006: ~$840 (only a range was given this issue)
June 2012: $1400
March 2015: $5700
March 2017: $6300
Today: $8300

Granted the time points I selected were a bit arbitrary, but I plotted the above prices for Black Lotus and compared with the price of SPY, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500. The results are staggering.

However, this is all historical data. Everyone knows past performance does not predict future returns. This brings me to the first word in my poll question that people struggled with: “good.”

Some people felt Black Lotus and other Power were good investments, but may not be going forward. After all, to experience the same percentage gain over the next 24 years or so, Black Lotus would have to be worth over $450,000. I love this hobby, but even I have a tough time seeing this happen by 2043. The price has got to level out.

If we assume the price does level out, then our expected returns from Power should be significantly lower. Perhaps gains over the next 5-10 years will only be a tenth of what they were the past 5-10 years. If that’s the case, then perhaps the investment isn’t “good” enough for some folks.

One dissenter explained how buying and selling smaller cards on a frequent basis would yield better returns than a single piece of Power. It’s certainly feasible—one only needs to average a modest 10-20% gain, and over the course of 50 transactions can churn some major profit. 1.15^50 = 1083, a pretty great return.

I’ll concede the frequent-transaction option could readily beat a piece of Power, but with two caveats. First, there’s the time component. If you have limited time and do not wish to spend it constantly flipping cards, then perhaps a piece of Power could be considered a “good” investment.

Second, there’s the risk factor. You need to consistently gain on your card flipping—one terrible pick that loses you 50% of your investment could set you back months. And what if you’re on transaction number 49 when that happens? You’d be losing a huge portion of your gains. With Power, there’s no such risk. You won’t get fast, exciting returns but it’s highly unlikely you’d be taking any losses from a bad spec, a reprint, etc.

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Controversy 2: Define “Investment”

Some “no” voters on my poll chose accordingly because they did not view Power as a good investment. Others voted no because they didn’t deem Power as a good investment. “Investment” is the second controversial word of my poll.

Librarian of Leng is a well-liked member of the Old School community. His sentiment above is supported by many in the community, as evidenced by the 23 likes. Black Lotus may make people lots of money, but some may view this as a consequence of the game rather than a main purpose.

I’m not going to dive into the Reserved List debate here. It will add no value to this article. The point is that some people believe this is a card game to be enjoyed, not an asset to be treated as an investment. While I readily see both sides of the argument over the word “good,” I have a tougher time accepting the sentiment that Magic should not be an “investment.”

For instance, consider the numerous other examples of collectible items that were initially made for one purpose but end up gravitating towards investor collections over time.

Transformers toys were originally made to be played with. Yet now some in nice condition can sell for hundreds or even thousands of dollars. Does that make these toys an “investment?” Or how about something closer to Magic, such as Pokemon cards. First-Edition Shadowless Charizard sells for a ton of money, but is a game piece that was designed for play. Is this not an “investment?”

Even something as day-to-day as video games can be graded and kept in a box for investment purposes. Check out this copy of Panzer Dragoon Saga, a valuable and rare Sega Saturn game that sold on eBay.

This copy is graded and brand-new. Therefore it was never used and perhaps never will be used for its intended purpose. Why buy this game if you’re not going to play it? As an investment, of course.

The list goes on and on. I stuck to games and toys, but if you expand the list to other hobbies you can find some really bizarre non-traditional assets. If you’ve ever watched Antiques Roadshow you know what I’m referring to—that random worn-out carpet from 1800 made by someone most people never heard of that would “sell at auction” for $20,000. Try telling the owner that their carpet is meant to be walked upon, not preserved as an investment. See where that gets you.

Don’t get me wrong—I completely understand Librarian of Leng’s sentiment. Old School players love the game for what it is, and they consider people who buy up loads of copies of older cards for investing as barriers to enjoying that game. They would also probably cringe at that Sega Saturn game or Transformers toy, all cased up and unavailable for enjoyment.

They’re completely correct in feeling this way, because collectors/investors are essentially making Magic and other games more expensive. But investor demand is no less legitimate than someone who wants a card to play with—the investor just has a different objective in mind.

My Vote

I created this poll to explore the sentiment of the broader Magic community. I tried to remain as unbiased as I could on Twitter so as not to sway people’s decision.

But if you were to ask me whether or not I felt Power 9 was a “good investment,” I would reply in the affirmative. I don’t have excess free time where I can shop around and flip collections, buy and sell cards constantly, etc. I do this to a lesser degree with a small portion of my collection, but if I were to put a set of Power’s worth of money into card-flipping I would quickly become overwhelmed. I like the idea of parking money in Power for the long term while also flipping a more manageable collection of cards for short-term gains.

While I don’t expect nearly the same returns on Power over the next 5-10 years as we had over the past 5-10 years, I still expect the directional arrow will go upwards and to the right. A Black Lotus will be worth more in five years than it is worth today, so that makes me happy to sit on one. I also think it will still outperform the S&P 500, though not nearly by the same margin as in the past.

As for the “investment” portion of the poll, I have defended my stance in the previous section. I do view Magic as an alternate investment, but only to a limited extent. There are some vocal members of the Magic community that have taken Magic investing to a whole new level, buying up $100,000’s or even $1,000,000’s worth of Reserved List cards.

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This is not my approach. I like that my cards can increase in value over time, but I also like playing with them. To me, it’s about enjoying a hobby that also pays me over the long haul…that’s the best of both worlds.

Wrapping It Up

A controversial Twitter poll has inspired me to write up this (potentially) controversial article. I declare to the community that I do, in fact, believe Power 9 is a good investment. I recognize others do not feel this way for numerous reasons. But I combine the fact that I like these older cards, appreciate their gameplay, and also want to hold them as they appreciate in the hopes of using them to offset my kids’ college costs. The result: I can have my cake and eat it too.

If you have much more time to spend then you could probably find better returns than Power as long as you avoid significant setbacks. If you just want to enjoy the game for what it is, then you will be unhappy with those who purchase large piles of these cards for the sole sake of making money. These two mindsets would cause one to argue that Power 9 is not a good investment.

At the end of the day, this is what I love so much about Magic. There are so many ways to engage with the hobby. Not everyone agrees on the optimal way to engage, but the complexity of the hobby has kept it fascinating to follow for over 25 years. With any luck, it will remain just as inspiring and we will be having this same debate 25 years from now!

…

Sigbits

  • Did you notice that Card Kingdom set a new precedent on near mint Unlimited Black Lotus? Over the weekend they increased their buylist to an industry-best $9,000. Clearly the card has not hit its ceiling yet.
  • Other Reserved List cards are making a comeback on Card Kingdom’s hotlist. I noticed Mox Diamond’s buy price recently increased to $155. This is the highest that card has been at for quite a while.
  • Buylist on Thunder Spirit, a popular Old School card, has also hit a local maximum lately. Card Kingdom has the card on its hotlist with a $135 buy price! Perhaps tax refunds are kicking in and Reserved List “investing” is kicking in, yet again.
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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Brew Report: Perfect Pairs

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Roses are red, violets are blue—it's time for another Report About Brews! This (day after) Valentine's Day, we'll take a look at some of the exciting developments Modern has seen this month, and present each deck alongside its significant other: another deck that's somehow related. In the words of a certain heart-shaped candy, LET'S GET BUSY!

Old Faithfuls

Nothing says "romance" like good ol' fashioned steadfastness. At least, that's the tip these star-crossed Modern standbys are on. We'll start with the format's most storied aggro strategy: while they've come a long way from Fatal Frenzy targeting Atog, everyone's favorite robots apparently still have a bit of Frenzy left in them.

Frenzy Affinity, by JOSITOSHEKEL (26th, Modern Challenge #11794021)

Creatures

4 Arcbound Ravager
3 Memnite
4 Ornithopter
4 Signal Pest
4 Steel Overseer
4 Vault Skirge

Artifacts

4 Cranial Plating
4 Mox Opal
4 Springleaf Drum

Enchantments

3 Experimental Frenzy

Instants

4 Galvanic Blast
1 Welding Jar

Lands

4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Mountain
4 Spire of Industry

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Dispatch
2 Etched Champion
2 Ghirapur Aether Grid
2 Rest in Peace
1 Rule of Law
2 Thoughtseize
2 Wear // Tear

Frenzy Affinity takes a decidedly different route from that of casting a three-mana Temur Battle Rage. It relies on Experimental Frenzy to restock after deploying its hand. Veteran readers may recall my dismissing of Frenzy as a worse Precognition Field, which itself sees no play despite my own attempts to tame it. But between plenty of 0-drops, just 17 lands, and its snowballing, play-to-the-field mentality, Affinity seems like a perfect home for the red enchantment.

Frenzy  vies for precedence over Affinity's other colored spell options, which include Master of Etherium and Thoughtcast. It's closest in role to the latter. In a format always interested in accessing powerful hate cards post-board, I like Frenzy's promise to tear through the deck once players untap with it.

Even though Affinity's seen its shares decline significantly as Modern has become more weaponized, with Hardened Scales-based artifact decks cutting deep into its shares, I wouldn't dismiss Frenzy Affinity outright. The same build was also quick to post a 5-0 listing after its Challenge performance, which itself put two copies into the Top 32.

Benthic Merfolk, by MASHMALOVSKY (5-0)

Creatures

4 Benthic Biomancer
2 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Master of Waves
4 Merfolk Trickster
4 Silvergill Adept

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Deprive
2 Spell Pierce

Lands

1 Cavern of Souls
14 Island
4 Mutavault
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
1 Dismember
2 Echoing Truth
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Mistcaller
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Spellskite
1 Tidebinder Mage
1 Vapor Snag
1 Venser, Shaper Savant

Benthic Merfolk also puts a new spin on an old classic, dropping Cursecatcher and Merrow Reejery for some of the flashier tribal additions from recent sets. As a one-drop, Benthic Biomancer seems significantly better than Catcher in the mid- and late-game, offering some immediate card selection and featuring built-in bulk. A potential 2/2 in this slot has worked for Merfolk in the past, and Biomancer has way more utility than Kumena's Speaker without even demanding a splash.

On paper, Catcher seems better than Benthic in the early-game. But that's only true for certain matchups. Most decks will happily pay a mana to destroy Catcher, and are fine casting their removal spell before deploying a creature after turn one. The decks with big instants and sorceries to resolve are few and far between in Modern, and the really juicy ones (i.e. Ad Nauseam) come out of decks that should lose to Merfolk's hate cards anyway.

Speaking of hate cards, this new build will have a hard time losing to combo at all with all its permission. My new beau Spell Pierce joins a full set of Deprives to prevent opponents from doing much while Vial deploys threats. The sideboard compliments the stack interaction with hosers.

Speed Dating

If there's one thing Modern's known for, it's speed. If there's a second? The format's powerful creatures. Modern has always been defined by removal for the reason that creatures tend to dominate at a given top table. February introduced us to a couple creature-based newcomers.

Mardu Aristocrats, by DRANTIDERIVATIVE (5-0)

Creatures

3 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Bloodsoaked Champion
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
2 Doomed Traveler
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
3 Kitesail Freebooter
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Falkenrath Aristocrat
3 Tithe Taker

Instants

3 Lightning Bolt
3 Path to Exile

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
4 Cavern of Souls
1 Clifftop Retreat
3 Concealed Courtyard
2 Godless Shrine
4 Marsh Flats
1 Mountain
1 Mutavault
2 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Path to Exile
2 Auriok Champion
1 Dark Confidant
2 Ethersworn Canonist
2 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
1 Kaya, Orzhov Usurper
1 Nearheath Pilgrim
2 Rest in Peace
1 Stony Silence
1 Wear // Tear

First on our list is Mardu Aristocrats, which by now has scored multiple 5-0 records. David's RNA spoiler review wondered about Judith, the Scourge Diva and Teysa Karlov in the deck, and the former seems to have revitalized it. The other new card here is Tithe Taker, an unassuming Human perhaps best known for its recent 9-0 at GP Toronto in a Soldiers deck.

Judith indeed does a lot for Aristocrats. She gives the deck access to some built-in removal with her triggered ability, punishes opponents for interacting and enables combos Ă  la Blood Artist, and makes the strategy more proactive on the whole with her static anthem effect. Cheap beaters like Champion of the Parish and Bloodsoaked Champion look far more appealing with Judith in the picture, as they now represent serious clocks. And as is true of many white aggro decks, Aristocrats gets to run the color's infamous hosers in the sideboard.

Gruul Vial, by GOOBYGOO (5-0)

Creatures

3 Gruul Spellbreaker
3 Duskwatch Recruiter
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Scavenging Ooze
2 Tarmogoyf
2 Goblin Cratermaker
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Ghor-Clan Rampager

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Smuggler's Copter

Lands

4 Copperline Gorge
1 Dryad Arbor
2 Fire-Lit Thicket
2 Forest
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Mountain
3 Raging Ravine
3 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
4 Cindervines
2 Crumble to Dust
1 Dismember
3 Flame Slash
1 Grim Lavamancer
2 Magus of the Moon

Gruul Vial is another novel aggro deck with multiple placings. This deck uses Vial not for tricks, but purely for mana, helping pilots empty their grip as soon as possible. Eidolon of the Great Revel and Scavenging Ooze provide incidental disruption, while Tarmogoyf (6/7 here thanks to Smuggler's Copter discarding funky card types) brings the beats.

Also bringing beats is Gruul Spellbreaker, subbing in for the too-expensive Bloodbraid Elf. While the card underwhelmed many Modern players during spoiler season (me included), its versatility is proving potent in practice; Spellbreaker has even shown up in the little-seen GR Eldrazi. Against Bolt decks, Spellbreaker is another hard-to-kill threat, and it eats unprotected planeswalkers no-questions-asked thanks to its hexproof clause. Forcing Path to Exile during an opponent's main phase also seems decent.

On the utility end of things, Duskwatch Recruiter keeps the cards flowing against anyone trying to one-for-one the deck, teaming up with Copter for a slow-and-steady filtering engine. And Goblin Cratermaker makes its Modern debut, hopefully destroying anything from Chalice of the Void to Pteramander to Thought-Knot Seer. I'd love to pick the pilot's brain about the roles this card plays in the deck.

Poly Wanna Cracker

Why love one when you could love two? Or... three?! That's what these engine-courters asked themselves this Valentine's Day, coming up with some impressive Frankenstein decks in the process.

Arclight Goryo's, by MANMOL (5-0)

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Griselbrand
1 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
2 Thing in the Ice

Instants

4 Goryo's Vengeance
1 Izzet Charm
1 Lightning Axe
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
2 Noxious Revival
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Serum Visions
3 Sleight of Hand

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
1 Bloodstained Mire
2 Island
1 Mountain
2 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Island
3 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Thing in the Ice
2 Abrade
2 Anger of the Gods
3 Crackling Drake
2 Dispel
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Threads of Disloyalty

Arclight Goryo's takes the Goryo's Vengeance combo (in its original form here, exactly one year ago) and... doesn't go all-in on it. What Modern player goes all-in anymore? These days, successful decks attack from multiple angles. MANMOL decided to make his second angle of attack the most winning angle in the format: Arclight Phoenix.

Of course, both Phoenix and Vengeance utilize the same resource: the graveyard. And there's plenty of hate for that running around, too. Fortunately, the sideboard works to offset this pitfall, with enough copies of Thing in the Ice to be running the full 4 against creature decks and practically a playset of Crackling Drake to laugh at any Rest in Peaces. With Thing being so popular in Modern, Threads of Disloyalty also seems like promising tech.

Hollow Shadow Vine, by AXEL_FOLEY (5-0)

Creature (29)

4 Death's Shadow
4 Hollow One
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Street Wraith
4 Vengevine
3 Flameblade Adept
3 Goblin Bushwhacker
3 Gurmag Angler

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

2 Call to the Netherworld
3 Cathartic Reunion
4 Faithless Looting

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Mountain
2 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
4 Wooded Foothills
60 Cards

Sideboard

1 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Collective Brutality
1 Destructive Revelry
2 Fatal Push
2 Gut Shot
1 Pyroclasm
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Temur Battle Rage
3 Thoughtseize

Hollow Shadow Vine seeks to right the wrongs I made with Hollow Bedlam Shadow, my own experiment in engine-mashing. Bedlam Reveler proved tough to support in my shell, but Vengevine fits right in as a more proactive plan. This deck is all about putting huge creatures into play really fast, and it runs the three beefiest free guys in Modern.

Only the most critical enablers are kept: Insolent Neonate and Cathartic Reunion, which support One and Vine, and Street Wraith, which supports One and Shadow. Greasing the wheels of course is Faithless Looting, the best enabler for this style of deck and one of the most powerful in the format. Without Goblin Lore or Burning Inquiry, Hollow One will often cost a mana, but that's still a bargain for a 4/4.

All This Chocolate

Despite Arclight Phoenix apparently dominating the tournament scene, leafing through lists of 5-0s still evokes the whimsical joy of choosing treats out of a Whitman's Sampler. Modern's got plenty of variety for everyone, so take your favorite playset by the sleeves and get ready for Date Friday Night Magic!

MTG Metagame Finance #31 – The Future of Magic

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In case you haven't heard, some big things are coming up for Magic later this month, particularly for Modern. We don't know just yet what the news is, but Wizards seems to think we'll consider it a big deal. You can see them teasing the announcement on Weekly MTG in the clip below (the complete video can be found on Twitch.

Contrary to what many people may think owing to decreased coverage of paper Magic, the game is still growing and will continue to flourish thanks to Magic Arena attracting many new players to the game.

As some of you might think the same, I predict paper Magic player numbers will dip a little bit this year as more people shift over to Magic Arena. Then we could see a jump in paper player numbers next year as old players that have shifted over to Magic Arena come back to play some paper Magic. But the big increase will come from the players who started playing Magic through Magic Arena. A certain percentage of these players will shift over to playing in paper.

We're already seeing a huge increase in viewership of Magic on Twitch. Take a look at these growth charts covering the past year. (Note that these trends hold for the smaller-size Magic channels as well.)

(Click to expand.)
(Click to expand.)

Why do I mention these two things one right after another? Well... first, I think there’s a very short window right now to get rid of some cards that will probably be reprinted at the end of this month. Without further ado, let's look at my Folds for this week.

Folds

Zendikar/Modern Masters 2017 Fetchlands (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

It’s been almost two years since fetchlands were last reprinted, and Wizards has said there won’t be another Masters set in the near future. The announcement later this month could contain a supplemental set that provides an outlet for Wizards to reprint them since they’re badly in need of it. Look at the price of Scalding Tarn. It’s creeping up towards $100 again. That’s scary.

Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blackcleave Cliffs

There’s only one printing of these and they’re over eight years old. I talked about this in article #1. Eventually, these will definitely get reprinted and tank in value. Get out now and buy back in later after the reprint.

Surgical Extraction (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surgical Extraction

This is a card I’ve talked about more recently. I mentioned this in article #30. As I’ve stated before, Phyrexian-mana cards are harder to reprint. But the last reprint of this card was over three years ago and has skyrocketed in price recently, making it a great target for a supplemental set at the end of this month.

So how does tie into the mention of Magic Arena earlier? Well, as I explained, there will most likely be a dip in paper Magic this year as people focus on Magic Arena. And then next year is when we could possibly see an increase in paper Magic again. With what seems like an inevitable reprint of some cards on the horizon, it’ll probably be a good time for people to buy cards on the cheap before things start to spike again next year.

So what should you buy now? Well, I recently sent another buylist order to Card Kingdom.

One of the cards that I’ve had my eye on is Judith, the Scourge Diva, particularly Prerelease foils. It shows up quite a bit in Standard and often as a four-of. But it’s also starting to make some small waves in Modern. I don’t know if it’s good enough for Legacy since it’s not blue and costs three mana. But increased play in Modern could make this a decent card to pick up and hold for a little while.

Standard Decks with Judith

Standard: Jund by Ihavethefire

Creatures

2 Graveyard Marshal
3 Ravenous Chupacabra
3 Rix Maadi Reveler
4 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Fireblade Artist
4 Footlight Fiend
4 Gutterbones
4 Priest of Forgotten Gods
4 Midnight Reaper

Non-Creature Spells

4 Skewer the Critics
1 Angrath, the Flame-Chained

Lands

4 Blood Crypt
4 Dragonskull Summit
5 Mountain
10 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Theater of Horrors
2 Moment of Craving
3 Lava Coil
1 Gruesome Menagerie
4 Drill Bit
2 Angrath, the Flame-Chained

Standard: Mardu by Uniq

Creatures

2 Midnight Reaper
2 Plaguecrafter
3 Ravenous Chupacabra
4 Gutterbones
4 Rix Maadi Reveler
4 Priest of Forgotten Gods
4 Militia Bugler
4 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Hunted Witness

Non-Creature Spells

2 Find // Finality
3 Revival // Revenge

Lands

2 Unclaimed Territory
2 Plains
4 Godless Shrine
4 Dragonskull Summit
4 Blood Crypt
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Plague Mare
3 Mortify
2 Inspiring Cleric
2 Elenda, the Dusk Rose
3 Duress
2 Dire Fleet Daredevil
1 Ravenous Chupacabra
1 Plaguecrafter

Standard: Boros by Pitafred

Creatures

2 Healer's Hawk
4 Snubhorn Sentry
4 Dauntless Bodyguard
4 Hunted Witness
4 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Skymarcher Aspirant

Non-Creature Spells

2 Light Up the Stage
4 Heroic Reinforcements
3 Conclave Tribunal
4 Legion's Landing
4 History of Benalia

Lands

4 Sacred Foundry
4 Clifftop Retreat
4 Godless Shrine
4 Isolated Chapel
5 Plains

Sideboard

4 Tocatli Honor Guard
3 Lava Coil
3 Drill Bit
3 Baffling End
2 Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants

Standard: Rakdos by David Borges

Creatures

2 Legion Warboss
2 Rekindling Phoenix
2 Skarrgan Hellkite
3 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Rix Maadi Reveler
4 Fanatical Firebrand
4 Goblin Chainwhirler
4 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

2 Bedevil
4 Lightning Strike
3 Lava Coil
2 Theater of Horrors
1 Angrath, the Flame-Chained

Lands

2 Swamp
2 Cinder Barrens
4 Dragonskull Summit
4 Blood Crypt
11 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Lava Coil
3 Drill Bit
1 Banefire
2 Fiery Cannonade
2 Bedevil
1 Theater of Horrors
2 Rekindling Phoenix
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Fountain of Renewal

Modern Decks with Judith

Modern: Zoo by Calebd

Creatures

1 Metallic Mimic
2 Firedrinker Satyr
2 Bosk Banneret
3 Rix Maadi Reveler
3 Spikeshot Elder
3 Judith, the Scourge Diva
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Rage Forger
4 Flamekin Harbinger

Non-Creature Spells

4 Collected Company
4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Fire-Lit Thicket
1 Blood Crypt
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Forest
2 Verdant Catacombs
2 Mountain
2 Stomping Ground
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Copperline Gorge
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

3 Tormod's Crypt
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Reclamation Sage
2 Plaguecrafter
3 Fulminator Mage
1 Eternal Witness
1 Bonfire of the Damned

I talked about Flamekin Harbinger in article #12. I think the ship has sailed on that one already, since some of the cheapest ones I can find now are $6 on Miniature Market.

I also talked about Collected Company in article #21. I would be more careful about this card now with the upcoming Modern announcement later this month, which could showcase a reprinting of this card. Also, Spirits in Modern hasn’t been as dominant lately compared to the past few months.

Modern: Tokens by Drantiderivative

Creatures

2 Doomed Traveler
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
3 Tithe Taker
3 Judith, the Scourge Diva
3 Kitesail Freebooter
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Falkenrath Aristocrat
4 Bloodsoaked Champion

Non-Creature Spells

3 Path to Exile
3 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Sacred Foundry
1 Clifftop Retreat
1 Mountain
1 Mutavault
1 Swamp
2 Godless Shrine
2 Arid Mesa
2 Plains
3 Concealed Courtyard
4 Marsh Flats
4 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

1 Wear // Tear
1 Stony Silence
2 Rest in Peace
1 Nearheath Pilgrim
1 Kaya, Orzhov Usurper
2 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
2 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Dark Confidant
2 Auriok Champion
1 Path to Exile
1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

I just picked up a playset of foil Falkenrath Aristocrats for $2.75 each from Miniature Market. TCGplayer has just a couple of foil playsets for $5-6 each, but I think that’s too expensive since it doesn’t really see play anywhere else yet.

I also think this deck should probably run at least three Aether Vials instead of some combination of Path to Exile and Lightning Bolts. It should probably also play some number of Rix Maadi Revelers since you can reliably cast it for its spectacle cost with this deck’s manabase. And it has synergy with Bloodsoaked Champion and Falkenrath Aristocrat.

Modern: Humans by Austin Noll

Creatures

1 Venser, Shaper Savant
2 Judith, the Scourge Diva
3 Reflector Mage
3 Kitesail Freebooter
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Phantasmal Image
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Meddling Mage
4 Mantis Rider
4 Champion of the Parish

Non-Creature Spells

4 Aether Vial

Lands

1 Island
1 Plains
2 Seachrome Coast
3 Horizon Canopy
4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Unclaimed Territory
4 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

2 Sin Collector
1 Riders of Gavony
1 Knight of Autumn
1 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Dismember
2 Deputy of Detention
2 Damping Sphere
3 Auriok Champion
1 Anafenza, the Foremost

I mentioned Judith in the Ravnica Allegiance spoilers page. According to Frank Karsten’s mana guide, I didn't think the current Humans manabase would be able to reliably cast it. But it looks like Austin Noll has had some minor success with Judith in Humans.

Summary

Folds

  • Zendikar / Modern Masters 2017 Fetchlands (Non-Foil)
  • Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands (Non-Foil)
  • Surgical Extraction - Modern Masters 2015 (Non-Foil)

Watchlist

  • Judith, the Scourge Diva - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)

Recent Buys

  • Falkenrath Aristocrat - Modern Masters 2017 (Foil)

Public Spreadsheet

Stay up to the minute on what I’m looking at on a daily basis via the MTG Metagame Finance Spreadsheet. Don’t forget to bookmark it, because I update it on the fly. This way you can see what’s going on as the market moves and before articles about certain cards are published.

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng.

Important!!!

You can also catch me in the Discord channel (edward.eng#4978) if you have an Insider membership. I would go as far to say that this is one of the most valuable things you receive as a member. The Discord channel is very active and real-time discussions revolve around cards that move before anyone sees the actual movement—it’s usually already too late when you see this movement on sites like MTG Stocks, MTG Goldfish, and MTG Price. Hit me up on Twitter at @edwardeng, and I’ll answer any questions you have.

I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

On Fire: Understanding the New Burn

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Burn has always existed in Modern in some capacity. However, it never gets any respect or discussion until there's a major metagame shift or new cards. This is unfortunate for players of the archetype and their opponents. The former often receive derision for playing the kiddie deck, and the later don't realize how vulnerable they actually are until too late. I aim to help correct this problem today.

It might be because I live in Denver, a notoriously red-friendly city, but I'm always shocked when players don't prepare for Burn. The deck is a certified predator thanks to most Modern decks Bolting themselves at least once with fetch and shock lands. Manabases have become less damaging since the enemy-colored fastlands were printed, and this made Burn appear less potent. However, the data usually disagrees. Burn is consistently a major player in the metagame. It's time to stop pretending that Burn's only viable when it gets new cards. It's always good, and players must be ready. The only real question is what form it will take.

Modern's Rodney Dangerfield

I think that lots of players, especially those that make Magic content, sometimes just forget that Burn exists. I don't think they actually discount the deck, but until something specifically happens, they just don't talk about the deck. Shortly after Monastery Swiftspear was printed, there was a huge spike in articles, especially after a good showing at PT Fate Reforged. Then, silence. A few videos here and there, but not much discussion of the deck itself. If it was discussed at all, it was as part of sideboarding plans for other decks. Even then the strategy always comes down to answer a few burn spells, race, and pray.

Once Collective Brutality was printed, it got worse. Players assumed that Brutality was the end of Burn. Which makes sense: Brutality is very efficient at answering everything Burn does on the cheap, and definitely remains a potent answer. However, Burn just motored through. In 2017, Burn represented 6% of the metagame. In 2018, it was still at 6%. Despite this consistency and resiliency, most competitive players seem to think of Burn as just a metagame choice. Maybe the enduring stigma of being an "autopilot deck for n00bs" remains strong, but Burn just doesn't get the respect it deserves.

The Actual Predator

It's not just Burn's history or individual achievements that demand respect. Burn is a major predator in Modern. Whenever new decks appear, there's always that lingering question of the Burn matchup that they have to answer. When Death's Shadow emerged, players assumed that Burn would just crush the deck. However, the Shadow players were aware of the vulnerability, and adjusted their gameplan. Every other matchup was straightforwardly played for a deck like Grixis Death's Shadow, but Burn required actual substantial gameplay adjustments. That's significant.

Weird, slow, and/or specifically interactive decks tend to have very poor matchups against Burn. Much was made of Humans' matchup against Storm in 2017, but Burn had a similarly strong matchup. Arguably, Burn had the better maindeck card against anything Storm or any combo could do in the form of Eidolon of the Great Revel, and to a lesser extent Searing Blaze. Tron similarly struggles: Wurmcoil Engine is a fantastic threat, but Burn has Skullcrack. Everything else is mediocre against Burn's attack or is very slow. There's a reason current Tron lists sideboard heavily against Burn.

A more extreme example is Lantern Control. Burn was the nightmare matchup because Ensnaring Bridge was minimally effective and Lantern could never allow Burn to draw a single spell. Everything but the creatures gets thrown at the face, so going long game 1, Burn was going to find enough fire. The printing of Inventors' Fair gave Lantern players some hope, but it was still terrible. I credit the prevalence of Burn for keeping Lantern from ever gaining traction.

The Reality

Even if a given deck isn't specifically terrible against Burn, everyone is vulnerable. Individual matchups aren't what makes Burn a good deck, or even what it's actually preying on. Burn targets Modern as a whole. The fact that the manabase is painful certainly helps, but that's not something contemporary Burn can rely on. Instead, Burn thrives because it takes advantage of how everyone else sees Modern.

There is a perception that Modern is entirely linear and uninteractive. This is false; even a cursory look through Modern decklists show that some combination of creature removal, counterspells, and targeted discard is in every deck. A more accurate description is that Modern cycles between periods of high and low quantity of interaction. In 2017 Grixis Death's Shadow dominated early, then Jeskai Tempo rose. Both were replaced by Humans in 2018, a year that saw UW Control, Hollow One, Mardu Pyromancer, Dredge, Spirits, and UR Phoenix become the decks to beat. More interactive decks followed by less and back again. Through it all, Burn held steady in the upper tiers because it naturally responds in opposition to the trend.

When interaction is high, Burn goes less interactive and faster to slip past defenses. When UW Control is popular, I see Burn maxing out on one-mana spells to overwhelm counters. There's also the option to completely ignore defenses with Exquisite Firecraft. If the rest of the format is getting more aggro-oriented, Burn responds with more Grim Lavamancers and Searing Bloods. It can go as extreme as hiding behind Ensnaring Bridge and chucking burn until the opponent dies. Players may think of Burn as just a metagame deck, but the truth is that Burn regularly pushes against metagame trends.

A Secret Pillar

This doesn't mean that Burn polices Modern. If Twin didn't, I don't think anything actually can. Instead, I argue that Burn is and has always been a pillar of the format. It's a deck that every other deck must take into account and always does well. The key is that Burn is the most focused deck in Modern. It doesn't mess around with enablers, cantrips, or air. Every single nonland card gets pointed at the opponent's face. This gives it considerable game in any situation, and ensures it is always relevant.

This makes it all the more baffling that players just don't play well against Burn. In my experience, most think of Burn as just an aggro deck and that stalling their offense and gaining back a few points of life is enough. This attitude forgets first of all, that Burn has faced this attitude since time immemorial and found ways to win. Secondly, they're forgetting Burn can just keep flinging cardboard at their face after the lifegain spell. Burn almost always has inevitability as a result. Thus players need to either preempt Burn by winning first or shut down Burn completely. The former is done with racing, and is where lifegain spells like Blessed Alliance are good.

Decks that don't effectively race need to actually shut Burn down and steal inevitability, either with continuous lifegain or actual, effective hate. There are few Modern playable cards (other than being Soul Sisters) outside Kor Firewalker for the former, though Lantern tried Sun Droplet. The better option is to just beat Burn with Chalice of the Void, Witchbane Orb, and Leyline of Sanctity. Burn's cheapness and linearity are its greatest strength and weakness and I'm surprised these aspects don't get attacked more.

New Hotness

Burn is efficient and focused enough that if its opponents stumble at all, regardless of how the matchup *should* go, it will win. This doesn't mean that players need to go all out with maindeck hate or sideboarding like Tron. Instead, it's time to give Burn its due, just like the Shadow players did, and figure out how to play against it. Burn's greatest strength so far has been that opponents don't really understand it, and that needs to change.

This is of supreme importance now because Burn got some new toys in Ravnica Allegiance and it's the New Latest Thing. The spectacle mechanic, and Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage specifically, are tailor-made for Burn decks and are making their way into Modern. It's a natural fit. Rift Bolt has long been a staple, and Skewer is that with a different restriction. It's a more restrictive restriction, but in a deck like Burn, damaging the opponent isn't that hard.

This is also made easier thanks to Stage. Functionally a one-mana Divination, Stage is a very good deal, especially in a deck that is entirely cheap spells. Playing more spells than the opponent is a time-honored route to victory. It's been a while since Burn got anything substantial, so at minimum, it's a nice treat for Burn stalwarts.

The Catch

I haven't been impressed by the new cards. They're fine, and if they encourage new players to play Modern, then I hope they maintain a presence in Burn. However, in my experience so far, they haven't been necessary and are sometimes actively harmful. Last week I mentioned that Lavinia has been surprisingly good against Burn because of Skewer and Stage. Burn may only cast them for one mana, but they still have a CMC of 3, and Stage decks are cutting a land. I've also won a number of games against Burn recently thanks to them having no way to spectacle-cast Skewer or Stage. Were those stranded cards Boros Charms or Skullcracks, I would have died. Instead, I had the time to put together an offense and win.

I've also never had a game where Stage actually won my opponent the game. Chaining Stages together did produce an impressive amount of reach, but when I died, my opponents still had plenty in hand to kill me. They didn't need the Stage. In attrition matchups, that may change, but so far that hasn't happened. I've witnessed a lot of games against Jund and UW where Stage didn't change the outcome. Games that normal Burn won would have won were won, and vise-versa.

Great Power, Great Vulnerabilities

The spectacle cards are encouraging players to cut the two mana spells and go as low to the ground as possible. This is a fine strategy, and worked out well for Death's Shadow in 2017. However, that additional speed isn't free. The lower you go, the greater the risk of being stepped on. Consider this Rakdos Burn list:

"Rakdos Burn, AndreasP (Modern Challenge, 1st Place)"

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Grim Lavamancer

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Shard Volley
4 Searing Blaze

Sorceries

4 Bump in the Night
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Light Up the Stage
4 Skewer the Critics

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Arid Mesa
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Mountain
2 Blood Crypt

Sideboard

4 Smash to Smithereens
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Searing Blood
3 Surgical Extraction

How does this deck beat Chalice of the Void or Leyline of Sanctity? I know that neither sees much play right now, but that is easily fixable. Naya and Boros Burn can struggle against those cards, and they play answers out of the sideboard. I don't think there's any out to Leyline for Rakdos except for creature beatdown. These new Burn decks are trying to ignore the opponent entirely, which is a fine strategy as long as Modern continues to not be ready for Burn.

Once that changes, it's going to be tough for Stage Burn of any stripe to win. The new cards incentivize running the most effective hate (read: shuts off part or all the deck) over the more splashable lifegain cards. Compare the new to the older lists:

Modern Burn, Yann Guillaume (GP Lyon 2018 Trial Winner)

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Boros Charm
4 Searing Blaze
4 Lightning Helix
4 Skullcrack

Sorcery

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

4 Destructive Revelry
2 Chained to the Rocks
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Ensnaring Bridge
2 Kor Firewalker
1 Searing Blood
1 Deflecting Palm
1 Tormod's Crypt

This list isn't as fast or streamlined as Rakdos, but it is ready for players that pay attention to it. There are answers for the typical hate that fit into the overall strategy and provide outs to anything. If players finally wake up to Burn, this type of reliability will be necessary.

Firestarter

Skewer and Stage have not suddenly made Burn a real deck. It always was one, even if players weren't paying attention. All they've done is focus attention, long overdue, onto the deck. Right now, they're pushing Burn away from the resilience and adaptability that made it a pillar of Modern for so long, but I think the archetype is sure to cycle back to its roots. Burn has always been. Burn will always be.

Tales From the Buylist #1 – The Stoneforge Cycle

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I’m a buylist processor for ABU Games in Boise, Idaho. I stare at expensive cardboard all day, and I love every second of it. I’ve been playing Magic since 2010, beginning with Standard. Since then, I’ve grown to love non-rotating formats, making Legacy my format of choice. Blue decks are my thing. For the most part, I’m an average Magic player who enjoys weekly LGS tournaments and the occasional Grand Prix when I can afford it. When it comes to Magic finance, my philosophy is trying making the most of what resources I have and make my insanely expensive Legacy addiction a little bit more affordable.

A Light History Lesson

Speaking of 2010, what a year to start playing the game! The Zendikar block had been well established, with Scars of Mirrodin dropping in October of that year. It wasn’t until the release of Mirrodin Besieged that I started playing tournament-quality decks and keeping up with the metagame at large. Pro Tour Paris 2011, coinciding with Mirrodin Besieged’s release in February, wrapped up with a win from a deck that would come to be known as Caw-Blade. For some, merely mentioning the name of this deck jogs memories of long, drawn-out control mirrors and one of the stalest GP metagames to date.

Caw Blade

A rough overview of Caw-Blade: it was a Blue-White control deck with an insane card-advantage engine in Stoneforge Mystic, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and Squadron Hawk. These cards, in tandem with powerful equipment such as Sword of Feast and Famine and Sword of Body and Mind, came together to create what would ultimately become an unstoppable force. Naturally, this became my deck of choice for every FNM I would attend in that time.

New Phyrexia’s release in the summer of that year would solidify the deck’s dominance, with the printing of Batterskull and Mortarpod. Not long after, the decision was made to enact the first Standard banning in several years, with the removal of both Jace and Stoneforge. Some point directly to GP Dallas-Fort Worth’s top eight as the event that would seal their fate, where a record 32 copies of Jace (yes, that means four in every deck) and 16 copies of Stoneforge Mystic were featured.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Many players around me were talking about bans long before the decision was made by R&D, and as I was afraid of losing all the value of my very young collection. Jace was then at an all-time high where a playset would set you back at least $400, which is not all that different than today.

Judge me if you will for being rash, but I made the decision to panic sell the deck and play something else with the cards I had left over. I consider myself lucky, as I made this decision the week before the announcement. Talk about close calls! However, with my suspicions confirmed, I was left with a sour taste in my mouth, as were many other players. I decided to leave the game for a while, selling most of my remaining collection and putting that money into the World of Warcraft TCG (RIP). Oops!

While I would dip into Limited from time to time (looking at you, Innistrad!), I largely was out of the game until the release of Theros in 2013, and more importantly, the advent of the Modern format. Coming back, I was unsurprised to find Jace and Stoneforge on the banned list for the format. With the wounds of that Standard being so fresh, this was understandable.

From what I just told you, would you believe it took six long years to get Jace into the format safely, only for him to make a relatively dull thud of an impact? 

In its infancy, the format was dominated by decks like Affinity, Jund, Splinter Twin, Birthing Pod, and Jeskai Control. Jace and Stoneforge were then considered to be too powerful to have a healthy format. Since that time, we’ve gone through several Banned and Restricted List announcements where two of the namesake cards for the decks I just mentioned are no longer even legal for play.

Alright, enough of the history lesson,  on to my point.

Enter Stoneforge Mystic

I find it hilarious that Stoneforge still isn’t legal. Even funnier, every three months, it's the same story. The Stoneforge Mystic hype train pulls into the station, carrying passengers eager to strike it rich on the next big thing in Modern. Around the Magic sphere of the internet, many vocal proponents of Stoneforge's unban in Modern outline great reasons as to why it would be fair and balanced in the metagame. Jeff Hoogland probably has my favorite takes on how silly the situation has become. So, bearing in mind all this chatter, why don’t we take a look at the numbers?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

In the graph above, you can see an even, pulsating rhythm of price movement. Shortly before each B&R cycle, people get hyped about the card. Each time that B&R announcement doesn’t include the unbanning, it dips, and after a short while sees slow but steady growth into the next three-month period. This last one was perhaps the most intense. Reviewing my time as a buylister at ABU, I have not seen a single card that has fluctuated with such reliability as Stoneforge Mystic, and with net-positive gains to boot.

The Foil Version

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

While Stoneforge Mystic does have a Foil Grand Prix version that made the card widely available during its distribution run, I believe the original Worldwake foil printing will be the primary target for substantial returns. Community response to the new art was mostly positive, but the most premium version will be the original.

Two Different Cards, Similar Story

There was an error retrieving a chart for Splinter Twin

There was an error retrieving a chart for Birthing Pod

It bears mentioning that you can see upward trends for both Birthing Pod and Splinter Twin. The fringe viability of these cards in Legacy, as well as the relatively low buy-ins that are widely available, make these great targets to pick up. While not a direct comparison, as Stoneforge Mystic’s current prominence in the metagame surely outstrips both of these cards by a country mile, they still may have some play value to them yet.

During the legal period of Dig Through Time in Legacy, Splinter Twin was oddly viable as an alternative to Sneak and Show builds, and will still occasionally crack a top eight at a smaller event. Birthing Pod is currently in the middle of a modest resurgence in popularity in Legacy, and is seeing small yet substantial gains.

Connected Items

The obvious complements to Stoneforge are of course the main targets to fetch up: Batterskull, the Swords of X and Y, and the most succinct and widely played answer, Kolaghan's Command. A quick note on Batterskull: I’ve personally seen quite a few of these go out the door to drop our current stock on non-foils to zero. This is anecdotal at best, but I expect upward movement in the very near future. Honorable mention to Manriki-Gusari, which may be a bit narrow as an answer, but is sometimes boarded in by UW Stoneblade and Death and Taxes decks in Legacy.

Wrapping Up

So what does this all rambling and speculation mean to you?

If I had to make a recommendation on purchasing, I’d say to pick up Stoneforges when you can get them around the $20 to $25 mark. The current buylist spread of several retail stores, including Card Kingdom, makes the investment fairly low risk at that price point should you want to out them in a pinch.

Between you and me, I currently own a non-English playset for Legacy UW Stoneblade, and I’m seriously considering snapping a few English copies up if the price is right. Due to the track record of reluctance from R&D in releasing the Kor Artificer from her prison, I won’t be holding my breath for a quick turnaround on these. However, I do believe patience will win out the day, and we’ll see the card make its debut in Modern a relatively short time from now.

That does it for this week! You can follow me on Twitter @chroberry or Instagram @chroberrymtg if you want to see extra goodies and spoilers for next week’s article. Feel free to let me know how you feel about my targets here in the comments.

Peace!

Insider: ABUGames is Making Waves Yet Again

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A large vendor has made yet another major shift in their pricing scheme. I’ve written about them before, cautioning customers of rampant credit inflation risks. I even went as far as to say that it was inadvisable to hold any store credit at this store for any extended period of time. The risk of value-loss due to price inflation was so great.

Then they did something bold, unexpected, and one-hundred-percent necessary.

If you haven’t guessed already, the vendor is ABUGames. What they did was significantly reduce prices on many key staples. While they essentially invalidated my advice, I must say their move was absolutely necessary given the downward spiral they were navigating. Just when I thought the opportunities to arbitrage with ABUGames had evaporated, there’s now a huge group of cards worth acquiring via trade credit.

Let’s take a look at some examples. But remember: as soon as people start discovering this trend, the best opportunities will vanish. So if you see anything you like, make sure you jump on the cards as soon as possible. Take advantage of ABU’s policy that allows you to place an order for cards first, even before shipping your trade-in.

Price Drops Across the Board

I’ve become obsessed with ABUGames’s buylist. I used to check Card Kingdom’s list religiously, anticipating every single small tweak to their numbers. But now I’ve switched focus and spend the majority of my time reviewing ABU’s numbers.

Because of this research, you can take my word for it when I say that many prices on Legacy and Commander Reserved List cards have dropped significantly.

For example, ABUGames used to have their near mint Gaea's Cradles listed at $499.99. I know this because I was trying to acquire their played copies for a slightly-more-tolerable $399.99. I figured I could sell such copies on the market and net $240 in cash, meaning I could convert store credit into cash at a 60% rate. At the time, that was sadly attractive.

Now their prices are slashed about 15%. Near mint Cradles are listed at $424.99 and played $382.49. A solid drop.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

More interestingly was their move on Mox Diamond. I was actually ecstatic to trade in for a slightly played, signed copy they had a couple weeks ago. It was listed at $234.99. This was attractive because their near mint pricing was way higher, in the $300 range.

Now their near mint copies are listed at $236.25 and played copies at $179.99. Are you kidding me?! Market price on TCGplayer is $201.13! With ABUGames’s cash rewards program, I currently can get 15% off singles. So technically that means I could purchase these Mox Diamonds for under “market price” if I wanted to spend the cash. Of course, with credit, the pricing becomes that much more attractive!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

But let’s talk about the most notable price drops of them all: dual lands. I firmly believe dual land prices have stabilized over the past couple weeks. There are signs that these cards are in-demand yet again as I see Card Kingdom’s hotlist has a couple popping up now and again. You can’t quite see the movement in price charts yet, but the flattening out we’ve seen over the past couple months is, to me, a very encouraging sign. I think they even dropped prices on Beta and Unlimited duals—something I thought would never happen.

I don’t remember all of ABUGames’s former dual land prices, but I can say with confidence that these prices have all dropped across the board. Suddenly if you’re sitting on store credit, you could do just fine cashing it out into their duals. And they sure have a lot of them available!

Finding That Trade-In

If these Legacy and Commander staples don’t interest you, don’t fret. I suspect you’ll find a lot of cards with lower prices now across the board. Their price on stuff like Serra's Sanctum dropped. I think even some of their Arabian Nights prices are down. $250 for a played Arabian Nights Erhnam Djinn still seems a bit high, but if you’re trying to acquire them without laying out cash, a trade-in may be worthwhile.

So all of this begs the question: if their sell prices on many key cards are down, are their buy prices also down? The answer is a resounding yes. But there are exceptions—you just gotta find them.

For example, I had a Beta Nevinyrral's Disk sitting in a deck. I had acquired it for $500 a few months ago thinking it would slot well in an Old School deck. But it really didn’t fit, so it ended up getting pulled out. Luckily ABUGames is completely out of stock on the Beta rare, so their trade-in credit number for played copies was $950.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nevinyrral'S Disk

In the old world I would have been lucky to convert that $950 credit into $500-$550 in cash. Now I am more optimistic about a profitable cash-out. I sent the card in and ordered four near mint Mox Diamonds in exchange. I’m hoping to sell the Moxes for around $160 each or perhaps $600 for the set. Even if I can’t move them so quickly, I think the Moxes will be easier to sell and far more liquid than the Disk, so the trade made sense in my mind.

It seems ABUGames still has some pretty solid trade credit numbers on other Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards as well. I’d encourage you to browse these numbers, and pay special attention to the played and heavily played numbers. I had a heavily played Unlimited Jayemdae Tome  rotting in my binder and was happy to ship it to ABUGames for $58.10 in credit. These start at $35 on TCGplayer—with their new prices, I’m confident I can cash out of the $58.10 in credit and get very close to $35 in cash, perhaps even more. That’s an exchange I’ll take any day!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jayemdae Tome

This works well because other vendors mark down their buy prices on played cards so severely. Card Kingdom will pay 40% of their near mint price on a heavily played card (I’d get $22.88 for my HP Tome). Channel Fireball pays 25% of their near mint price for moderately played, and 10% for damaged. Pretty sure they would have called mine damaged because it was a bit too rough to be MP.

Their near mint buy price on Unlimited Tome is very attractive at $60, but that means I would have gotten an insulting $7.80 in trade credit for my copy. Maybe they would have given me $19.50 if they graded it MP. ABUGames really is best in class when it comes to trade credit on MP and HP old cards.

With some research, I’m confident you’d be able to find other played or heavily played cards from Magic’s first three sets that can be flipped profitably for credit. Now that their prices are down, I no longer value their credit at 50-60%. Suddenly a 70% number isn’t so farfetched!

Hurry While Supplies Last

This move by ABUGames was brilliant. It will cause them some losses in the short term because I’m sure they offered aggressive buy numbers on the inventory they’re now marking down. But assuming they can get through the short-term, the price adjustments will bring in a flood of new business.  Prices are definitely attractive now if you have trade credit, and even tempting with cash if you have a high enough loyalty discount.

I have just one caution to folks looking to take advantage of this shift. There’s opportunity now but that will dry up quickly. There’s going to be a lot of people cashing out credit into Mox Diamonds, Gaea's Cradles, and dual lands. Before you know it, ABUGames will be sold out of all these cards.

That’s not a terrible thing, I suppose, but it does mean the opportunity for attractive trades will be short-lived. From there, it will take time for the market to find equilibrium and copies to come back into inventory. It will be absolutely critical that ABUGames sticks to their new pricing strategy to avoid the return of unhealthy inflation. If they jack up their buy prices on Mox Diamond in response to selling out, they’ll end up back where they started. They will need to be very vigilant and deliberate with any price adjustments upward.

What does that mean for you? It means you will need to act fast if you want to get the best deals. And if you can’t move quickly enough, you’ll need to be patient to watch how things unfold at their site.

Maybe they’ll drop other prices, and you can jump on those cards—it wouldn’t kill them to, say, drop their price on Academy Rector. They have 41 played copies in stock for crying out loud! No one wants to pay $62.99 for these cards, even with credit. But $53.49 may suddenly get some interest. Maybe they’ll make another drastic shift and drop prices on the heavily played Beta and Unlimited stuff. If that happens, you’d better believe I’d be trading with them again to acquire key Old School cards for my decks!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Academy Rector

In other words, if you don’t get to take advantage of the recent move you shouldn’t fret. There will be other opportunities because I highly doubt this is the last big price change ABUGames will make. They’re on the right track, but they’re going to make waves at their site with the recent adjustments and they will have to adjust further in time. Just make sure you have some cards ready to trade in so you’re ready to take advantage.

Perhaps you may even want to hold some store credit for a change!

Wrapping It Up

I know I write about ABUGames often, but their business model is so different from other stores that it merits a lot of discussion. No other store provides 100%+ trade credit bonuses on certain cards. No other vendor slashes prices so drastically across so many highly desirable cards. And while there’s plenty of arbitrage to be had at many stores, I think ABUGames’s current price adjustments yields some of the most attractive arbitrage opportunities in the game.

If you have some stuff you’ve been waiting to send in for trade credit, I’d encourage you to look at their new prices to see if any deals leap out at you. They had hundreds of dual lands rotting in their inventory before, but I bet you anything they’re going to become “sold out” in a few short weeks. With their new pricing, the deals with trade credit are so much more attractive.

So get on it! Let’s see how things unfold. While it is impossible to predict what will happen, I’m fairly confident in one thing. I’ll likely be writing another article about more price changes at ABUGames in the future!

…

Sigbits

  • Let’s talk about some other cards that ABUGames still pays attractively on despite recent price drops. How about we start with the heavy hitter: Power. You can still get $2784 in trade credit for the least desirable piece of power, a Mox Pearl. That wasn’t too bad back when their credit could be converted to cash at a 60% rate. But now imagine getting 12 Mox Diamonds in trade, valued at $150 a piece. That’s $1800 cash, a great price for selling a played Pearl. Of course, ABUGames doesn’t have 12 Mox Diamonds in stock anymore… you’ll have to find other things to get!
  • ABUGames isn’t paying as aggressively on low-end Alpha cards anymore, but they still have attractive credit numbers on the more desirable Alpha cards. Not that everyone has a stack of playable Alpha cards lying around, but if ABUGames has little-to-no stock of a given card, I suspect they didn’t adjust their buylist price lower. I have an Alpha Vesuvan Doppelganger and I noticed they still have the same trade credit numbers on this card: $1425 for played and $1140 for HP.
  • Perhaps there’s another angle with foils. I’m not as familiar with the foil market, but I do see ABUGames still has some pretty decent trade credit numbers on played high-end foils. They pay $444 in store credit for a played foil Academy Rector, for example. While you can’t exactly get free arbitrage money buying the cheapest TCGplayer copy ($350) and flipping it for credit, it’s probably much easier to flip such a card to ABUGames for more liquid cards such as duals. Food for thought, if you’re sitting on some played foils you can’t sell.

Rule of Law: Ethics and Fun in Modern Magic

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Yesterday, Brian Braun-Duin published "When Playing to Win Is a Loss," an article detailing the dangers of getting caught up in the competitive spirit. It admonishes angle shooting and makes a case for sportsmanship in a gaming environment. Brian's thoughts resonated with some of my own, especially as relates to the place of ethics in Magic and the virtues of refining one's own tastes. Today's article responds to some of the points he made, examining the balance between ethics and ruling ambiguities and stressing the worth of self-knowledge.

Know Theyself: Saga of the Scrub

BBD's article draws heavily on an e-book called "Playing to Win" by David Sirlin. PTW defines a scrub as any player imposing artificial restrictions on themselves when it comes to playing a game, be it for reasons of principles, preference, or something else—for instance, staunchly refusing to play Counterspells or Red Deck Wins, even if those be the dominant strategies in a given format. BBD goes on to reveal the inner peace he's achieved by accepting that playing to win, in the hardcore, Sirlin sense, is not for him after all.

I came to a similar realization myself two years ago, while half-heartedly preparing for an SCG Invitational. Since then, my Magic goals have become more defined; I've been able to pour my newfound knowledge of self towards ensuring the game better meets my needs, a feat that has kept me interested in and involved with Modern. Articles like "Love What You Play: Taking the Taste Test" suggest some benefits of understanding one's own preferences.

This idea of refining tastes is one we'll continue touching on throughout this article, as it pertains to every topic herein. As it relates to PTW, though, "knowing thyself" in this way—or, deliberately choosing the Path of the Scrub—may actually prove more competitively sound than Sirlin would have us think. Letting preferences get in the way of the "correct" choice, he argues, counteracts the goal of winning. But what if, without the ensuing enjoyment, playing the game at all became unsustainable? What if playing a worse deck for a given metagame keeps players stimulated enough that they stick around and amass the reps necessary to succeed in Modern? These exceptions to Sirlin's rule explain what BBD means by the title of his article; fun is in fact paramount to competitive success so long as it incentivizes players to continue playing.

The Ethics of Magic

Soon enough, BBD dives into the murky waters of ethics:

[Sirlin is] clear that if there is something within the rules that you are allowed to do, you should do it, even if it seems exploitative. That's where I draw the line in the context of Magic.

In this passage, the author begins his steady trek up the high road of sportsmanship. It's a path I've walked myself, and have come to grow disillusioned with. Just as fun is subjective, so too are terms like "exploitative." For instance, to Sirlin's "scrub," playing Counterspell is exploitative. Since different players enjoy different elements of the game and expect different things, sportsmanship is far from definite or universal. All that's universal in any game is the rulebook.

Oops-I-Moralist

BBD claims that he doesn't want to moralize, stating, â€śThis [article] is about how I now choose to approach Magic and less about a moralization of what one should or shouldn't do,” but what else can we call an attempt to universalize terms as vague as "unsavory" and "downright miserable?" By whose standard do such terms apply? How is "angle shooting" even measured? "Cheating" has a clear meaning in the rules, but "angle shooting" does not. Decrying actions so undefined has little objective effect but to endorse a value system.

A younger version of myself also oops-I-moralized. In "Sowing Salt: Eliminating Toxic Attitudes," a piece published close to half a decade ago, I defined toxic as the antonym of productive. The article urged fellow players to consciously work towards creating a Magic community devoid of toxicity. Today, I would be much more hesitant to push that morality on anyone, much less my own readership, no matter how much I anticipate they may agree with me. And anticipate a positive response, I did; looking back critically, "Sowing Salt" was, to some degree, a plea for validation (which I indeed received from a community preoccupied with certain notions of good and bad). Perhaps any such moralization is. After all, I only even stumbled upon the BBD article because peers in my online networks were spreading it around.

Mystifying though human motivations may be, they aren't the point of this article. Rather, my thesis re: ethics is that I've come to believe they have little to no place in a competitive game. In Magic specifically, ethics are often a mechanism invoked by players as a means for seeking validation (touched on above) and by, or in the name of, game ambassadors to defend needlessly ambiguous rulings (keep reading).

Solving for Ambiguity

Here's where BBD and I clash more explicitly. He writes:

The rules are often ambiguous and whether or not something is allowed or not allowed in the rules comes down to subjective measurements like how long someone paused between saying words, or how they gestured at something or what word choice they had when talking to their opponent. Those kinds of things aren't easy to make rules about, and the rules aren't always clearly defined or definitively black and white about whether something is or isn't allowed.

This isn't the fault of judges or the rules committee that develops the Magic Tournament Rules. In fact, I am continually impressed at how great the rules are for handling nearly every situation imaginable and how knowledgeable a lot of the judges I interact with are about how to properly apply those rules.

I, too, am impressed with and grateful for the work Wizards puts into making the game function smoothly. I feel that goes without saying; after all, I play Magic, and therefore consume Wizards’s product—my very participation in that cycle endorses the company’s efforts. I nonetheless disagree with some of their calls.

Specifically, I disagree entirely with BBD’s assertion that rules ambiguity is not the fault of the rules committee. In my eyes, that committee is entirely at fault for any ruling ambiguity. It is their literal job to address such ambiguity, which they in fact try to do in monthly digests.

Occasionally, though, the digests do the opposite. For a recent example, look to the Policy Changes for Ravnica Allegiance. This rules update changed the way triggers work:

Now, if you miss a trigger with a default option, your opponent decides if it goes on the stack. If it does, you make all the appropriate choices.

Under the old rules, if a player cast Summoner's Pact and drew their card for turn without paying 2GG, they lost the game. Under the new rules, if that player's opponent "catches" them missing their Pact trigger, the player must immediately pay 2GG, and may now do so with additional information at their disposal—they have drawn for turn. This rules change asks players to remember their opponent's triggers for them, and punishes players for their opponent's mistakes.

Of course, deliberately not paying for Pact with the intention of first seeing one's draw is cheating. But whether a player cheated or not is rendered ambiguous by this ruling, the decision in practice coming down not to what we know happened in-game, but to the capricious opinion of a judge. BBD argues that cases like these are inevitable in a game as dense as Magic, and there's nothing judges or the rules committee can do about their occurrence. He instead appeals to ethics, placing the onus on the player (in this case, himself), as I once did, to account for what I now see as needless ambiguities in the rules.

Needless how? Well, in Pact's case, the supplanted ruling was unambiguous: forgot to pay your Pact trigger? You lose. That ruling removes the possibility for exploitation from the equation altogether. In video games, for instance, such unambiguous rules enforcement is built-in, which in my eyes leads to a higher skill ceiling; players are forced to work within hard lines, rather than allowed to find ways around those lines, such as cheating. Of course, Magic changes faster than a video game. But even if new rules issues come up, which they inevitably will, they can be addressed on a case-by-case basis as they arise. I don't see how the triggers change and other ambiguous rulings can't be made black-and-white as they are in other games.

In the Name of Fun

I don't see how, but I do hear why; many changes to competitive rules that I disagree with are traced back to blurry notions of fun. It apparently "feels bad" to untap, draw, and realize that you have lost because you didn't pay for your Pact. I do not find this argument compelling, as fun is too subjective. For me personally, rulings like these make a Competitive tournament less fun.

Magic has a built-in solution to this problem. Don't want to lose to a forgotten Pact trigger? Well, you are not required to put Pact into your deck. Similarly, this scenario would never come up at lower levels of play anyway, because the rules are more relaxed at Regular REL; the "new rule" would have been applied there even before it was put into practice. Conversely, every Competitive REL tournament I've been to features a judge's opening monologue about how players will be held accountable for their mistakes at this level of play. Why suddenly baby players who knowingly and willfully enter into that contract, especially when such babying incentivizes cheating?

Fun, as mentioned, is subjective. I'd like to think that for most Magic players, the game itself is plenty fun at Competitive without added ambiguity. In fact, for certain players (myself included), the game is more fun when I and my opponents are held accountable for our mistakes. And to BBD, the game is more fun when players need not fret about the possibility of opponents exploiting ambiguous rulings:

I genuinely think the game is worse off if everyone is trying to “get” each other or exploit the rules to get edges over each other. Sirlin believes that people pushing games to their extremes makes those games better, and maybe in fighting games with programmed in rules engines, that is true, but I don't think it holds for Magic, which has a level of interpersonal interactions, relies on communication in tournaments as one of its core rule structures and has so many grey areas and ambiguities that the sheer amount of areas in which you can exploit things or abuse rules is astronomical and frankly exhausting to keep up with. It also creates a downright miserable experience for opponents who have to play against someone who is doing this or trying to do this at every possible situation.

I'd argue that rules changes like the Pact one actually exacerbate this issue. I now have to worry about opponents exploiting a newly-ambiguous rule rather than knowing they will be held accountable for their mistakes. Ambiguous rules enable cheating. The more ambiguity we can eliminate in the rules, the less place ethics must hold in making Magic sustainable to play at high levels.

So, now what? The capitalist in me places the responsibility on the provider of the good, in this case Wizards—if they do enough things consumers do not like, consumers will stop buying. Power creep, dubious banlist management, and reprints (or a lack thereof) have all driven players I know away from Magic in recent years; while none of those elements bother me, the game's clinging to ambiguous rulings does.

Democracy of Enjoyment

Behind even diversity, Modern's calling card, Wizards has designated "fun" the number-one most important factor when it comes to nurturing the format. Of course, fun's subjectivity renders it impossible to define, so format analysts and banlist predictors tend to spend most of their energy on the next-best thing: gathering and assessing available data. That said, if enough players are vocal about things they do or don't find fun, and especially if that outcry corresponds with an indisputable effect of such distaste—for instance, a marked drop in event attendance—Wizards is bound (inasmuch as "Where Modern Goes From Here" is binding) to take banlist action. In other words, banlist management, and what happens with Modern in general, is at least partially democratic.

Every player gets a vote; to vote effectively, they must understand what they want out of a candidate. Players will have an easier time clearly articulating what is and isn't fun to them if they have a solid grasp on their own preferences. BBD digs into his personal taste in "When Playing to Win Is a Loss," determining the level of competitiveness he likes holding himself to. I did it myself in this article, expressing dissatisfaction with ambiguous rulings. Taste refining can also apply to other elements of Magic, such as deck selection and personalization.

In the words of Socrates, "to know thyself is the beginning of wisdom." Maybe it's also the beginning of something even more valuable: a better Magic experience.

This Week in Magic Finance

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Counterfeiters Getting Aggressive

The topic of counterfeit cards is one that seems to work its way into the Magic news cycle time and time again for one reason or another. It returned this week when a tweet revealed a local game store owner received a mail solicitation from someone advertising their counterfeit business, including a sample of their wares.

This counterfeiter presumably wants to prey on the greedy store owner, or one who might be struggling with their business, and give them an easy way to make a massive margin on the unsophisticated buyer. It seems especially malicious that these counterfeits are being advertised directly to the LGS, which are in a position to get them into the hands of the most susceptible people, especially children.

The reality is that any store could obtain proxies to sell through other means, as proxies have been readily available for years. But the point is that counterfeiters will only continue to grow more aggressive as the market continues to grow and as their fakes improve in quality over time. It’s important to be alert now in 2019 more than ever, because it seems to be only a matter of time before proxies like these will filter through the Magic ecosystem like a toxin through the food chain.

Another Special Release

Wizards has moved to fully embrace printing supplemental products and other special releases. These days there are special releases of all sorts, headlined by the Mythic Edition releases we’ve seen for the last two sets, which David Schumann went into great detail about.

This week it was revealed that a new Modern-oriented product would be released at the end of February.

What the product is exactly remains to be seen. It could be just about anything, because Mark Rosewater said it is this year's “innovation product." Rest assured that whatever it is, it will be full of big reprints.

Since last year I’ve taken the strategy of aggressively moving away from holding Modern cards. At this point anyone holding them needs to be aware that reprints could be imminent for any non-Reserved List card.

One possibility for this upcoming release are the Zendikar fetchlands, with Scalding Tarn creeping towards the $100 price it held before reprint in Modern Masters 2017. MaRo said “If you guys don’t love it, I’ll be floored,” and history shows there’s no more surefire way to make Magic players love a product than to reprint fetchlands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

Wizards of the Coast and Magic is a big moneymaker for Hasbro, and they are going to milk it for all it is worth—supplemental products are a great way to do this. It’s becoming increasingly important to be a discerning consumer and properly evaluate each release. Mythic Edition: Ravnica Allegiance showed us that not all may be as good of opportunities as they initially seem.

Even if you aren’t interested in buying them, new releases like the upcoming Modern product have the potential to impact the market with reprints. So becoming aware of these as early as possible and reacting accordingly is important for anyone holding cards at risk of reprint.

The Wizards Coming Soon page is one place to keep bookmarked. But that doesn’t even show the upcoming Modern release—a more definitive source is the community and the places it gathers like Twitter and Reddit.

Looking Ahead: Pauper Pops Off!

When Pauper began to explode in popularity at the end of 2017, Channel Fireball stoked the flames by supporting the format with side events at their Grand Prix in 2018. These initial Pauper events proved very popular, drawing crowds into the hundreds.

They continued to support the format with special side events like Pauper Championships at multiple Grand Prix,  but now in 2019 have taken the format a monumental step ahead. Last month CFB announced they would hold the first ever Pauper Pro Tour Qualifier, now technically called a Mythic Championship Qualifier, at Grand Prix Los Angeles in March.

Pauper to the Pro Tour already became a reality in November when Wizards announced they would be adding the Pauper format, along with Legacy and Vintage, to their Magic Online Championship Series.

I’ve already expressed my bullish outlook on Pauper in 2019, and I see the CFB announcement as a major sign that there will be further Pauper support to come. The occasional Pauper MCQs at Grand Prix is likely not enough to majorly increase demand for cards, but very early on Channel Fireball teased that a Pauper Grand Prix was a real possibility.

I see the upcoming Pauper PTQ as a test run, and potentially a stepping stone to a Pauper Grand Prix. GP formats for the second half of the year have not yet been announced, so we could see the event as early as this year. If we do, then the prices of many Pauper staples would be set to explode, whether from player demand or the speculators the announcement would be sure to attract.

Avatar photo

Adam Yurchick

Adam started playing Magic in 1999 at age 12, and soon afterwards he was working his trade binder at school, the mall food court, FNM, and the Junior Super Series circuit. He's a long-time Pro Tour gravy-trainer who has competed in 26 Pro Tours, a former US National Team member, Grand Prix champion, and magic.tcgplayer.com columnist. Follow him at: http://twitter.com/adamyurchick

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MTG Metagame Finance #30

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I took a break from MTG Metagame Finance last week to start the new What’s Next series. If you haven’t seen that yet, you can check it out here. Now that Ravnica Allegiance has been making its way into all the formats, we’re starting to get a feel for how it's affecting the different metagames. So let’s dive into that this week.

It’s also still very early so I suggest a couple of ways to stay ahead of everyone else.

Ways to Stay ahead of Everyone Else

1. Quiet Speculation Discord Channel (Paid)

This is probably one of, if not, the most active MTG finance chat group that discusses cards before the movement actually happens.

 

Members

If you have a membership, sign in to the Discord channel here.

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2. Public MTG Metagame Finance Spreadsheet (Free)

I update this spreadsheet often, especially before I write and post my articles. I also update this spreadsheet every time I buy a card right after I place the order.

Article Series Main Focus Points

  • Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  • Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Recent Buys

Silhana Wayfinder - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silhana Wayfinder

Purchased Price
$1.25

I must admit I misread this card at first. I thought that you put the creature or land into your hand. Sad face. This card is much worse than I had originally imagined. However, that doesn’t mean it’s a bad card. I think it could still see play in Standard. But I don’t think it’s good enough for Modern.

Here are a couple of brews that I think could have some legs with some testing and adjustments.

Standard: Abzan Angels by nzznzn

Creatures

2 Angel of Grace
3 Knight of Autumn
2 Ravenous Chupacabra
2 Seraph of the Scales
2 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
4 Silhana Wayfinder

Non-Creature Spells

2 Assassin's Trophy
2 March of the Multitudes
3 Revitalize
2 Settle the Wreckage
1 Vraska's Contempt
4 History of Benalia
3 Seal Away
2 Find / Finality
2 Kaya's Wrath

Lands

4 Godless Shrine
4 Isolated Chapel
4 Overgrown Tomb
3 Plains
2 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
3 Woodland Cemetery

Sideboard

2 Consecrate / Consume
2 Cry of the Carnarium
4 Duress
1 Golden Demise
4 Knight of Grace
2 The Immortal Sun

This is an interesting build because Silhana Wayfinder helps you find powerful Angels that can take over the mid to late game such as Shalai, Voice of Plenty and Angel of Grace. It also sets up a sequence where you can play this, find one of those Angels, cast Kaya's Wrath, and then cast the Angel after you’ve cleaned up the board.

Standard: Prime Speaker Vannifar by Chobeslayer

Creatures

2 Biogenic Ooze
2 Carnage Tyrant
1 Conclave Cavalier
1 Forbidding Spirit
4 Incubation Druid
3 Jadelight Ranger
2 Knight of Autumn
4 Llanowar Elves
1 Mesmerizing Benthid
2 Nullhide Ferox
1 Pelakka Wurm
4 Prime Speaker Vannifar
1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
3 Silhana Wayfinder
1 Sumala Woodshaper
1 Trostani Discordant

Non-Creature Spells

4 Adventurous Impulse

Lands

4 Breeding Pool
5 Forest
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Hinterland Harbor
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden

Sideboard

4 Baffling End
1 Carnage Tyrant
3 Deputy of Detention
2 Knight of Autumn
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
4 Negate

Since there aren’t any effective tutor effects in Standard, Silhana provides a decent way to dig for Prime Speaker Vannifar. It comes down early, and you can sacrifice it later for a Jadelight Ranger or Knight of Autumn.

Ill-Gotten Inheritance - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ill-Gotten Inheritance

Purchased Price
$0.25

Thanks to Ari Lax, it’s probably not really a secret anymore that this is a good card in Limited. There’s a slight chance this could see play in Standard in midrange or control. But I think it has the most potential in Pauper.

We’ve already seen the foil price of Curse of the Pierced Heart shoot through the roof. That could be a good sign for this card. Twenty-five cents is pretty cheap, so get them while you can now.

Frilled Mystic - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Frilled Mystic

Purchased Price
$3.25

This has already been showing up in Standard Simic decks. It started out kind of pricey, then dropped a bit. But it’s starting to tick back up in price. I also think this card could have potential in the longer-term outside of Standard in something like a Simic or Bant Wizards deck in Modern.

I don’t think WotC is going to stop printing Wizards anytime soon. So there will probably be a point in time where there are enough powerful Wizards in Simic or Bant to build a new deck. And it’s possible that cards I mentioned in previous articles, like Senate Guildmage and Wizard’s Retort, will make the cut.

Standard: Simic Elves by SANRYU

Creatures

3 Frilled Mystic
4 Growth-Chamber Guardian
4 Incubation Druid
4 Jadelight Ranger
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Merfolk Branchwalker
4 Nullhide Ferox
4 Pelt Collector
4 Steel Leaf Champion
4 Wildgrowth Walker

Lands

4 Breeding Pool
9 Forest
4 Hinterland Harbor
4 Unclaimed Territory

Sideboard

1 Frilled Mystic
2 Crushing Canopy
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Island
3 Spell Pierce
3 Thrash // Threat
3 Watertrap Weaver

It’s too bad the manabase in this deck doesn’t really allow you to consistently cast Incubation // Incongruity. However, if you really want to cast it, the next deck allows you to do so.

Standard: Bant Hydroid Krasis by PUTPUT

Creatures

4 Deputy of Detention
4 Frilled Mystic
4 Growth-Chamber Guardian
4 Hero of Precinct One
4 Hydroid Krasis
4 Incubation Druid
4 Llanowar Elves
3 Trostani Discordant

Non-Creature Spells

3 Incubation // Incongruity
2 Hadana's Climb

Lands

4 Breeding Pool
2 Forest
4 Glacial Fortress
3 Hallowed Fountain
4 Hinterland Harbor
1 Island
2 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden

Sideboard

3 Baffling End
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Ixalan's Binding
3 Lyra Dawnbringer
3 Negate
2 Shalai, Voice of Plenty

Benthic Biomancer - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Benthic Biomancer

Purchased Price
$2.25

Speaking of Wizards, here’s another one from Ravnica Allegiance that’s already seeing play in Modern and Legacy.

Modern: Merfolk by LE_PIP

Creatures

4 Benthic Biomancer
2 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Master of Waves
4 Merfolk Trickster
4 Silvergill Adept
1 Vendilion Clique

Non-Creature Spells

1 Echoing Truth
4 Wizard's Retort
4 Aether Vial
4 Spreading Seas

Lands

17 Island
2 Mutavault
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds

Sideboard

1 Vendilion Clique
1 Echoing Truth
2 Deprive
1 Dismember
4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Spellskite
2 Tidebinder Mage
2 Venser, Shaper Savant

I would bet that a decent number of people are overlooking the fact that Wizards is the more commonly shared creature type over Merfolk now in this type of deck. But it certainly seems like LE_PIP got the memo and incorporated Wizard's Retort this Mono-Blue Merfolk Wizards deck.

Legacy: Merfolk by TUXDEV

Creatures

3 Benthic Biomancer
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Phantasmal Image
4 Silvergill Adept
4 True-Name Nemesis

Non-Creature Spells

1 Echoing Truth
4 Force of Will
4 Aether Vial
4 Chalice of the Void

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
12 Island
4 Mutavault

Sideboard

1 Echoing Truth
2 Back to Basics
2 Dismember
2 Flusterstorm
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Venser, Shaper Savant

Holds

Lavinia, Azorius Renegade - Game Day & Store Championship Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lavinia, Azorius Renegade

Target Purchase Price
$10ish

These are still pretty expensive right now on eBay. But that might be because they won’t be officially released to the public until February 16-17. I would wait to see what the price is shortly after that weekend.

This card showed up all over the place in the Vintage Challenge on January 27. Vintage is in its own bubble and doesn’t really cause the prices of most cards to move like other formats do. However, we might see a trickle down effect into Legacy and Modern. If that happens, we’ll probably start to see this card rise in price. Just remember, this is a blue card and can be used with Force of Will to stop opposing Force of Wills.

Vintage: Eldrazi by Venioetvinco

Creatures

2 Containment Priest
3 Eldrazi Displacer
2 Glowrider
3 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
1 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
4 Thought-Knot Seer

Non-Creature Spells

1 Black Lotus
1 Chalice of the Void
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Null Rod
1 Sol Ring
1 Thorn of Amethyst
1 Trinisphere

Lands

4 Adarkar Wastes
4 Ancient Tomb
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Karakas
1 Strip Mine
3 Wasteland

Sideboard

2 Containment Priest
1 Null Rod
2 Energy Flux
3 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Path to Exile
2 Rest in Peace
1 Stony Silence
2 Swords to Plowshares

Legacy: Humans by Venioetvinco

Creatures

2 Judge's Familiar
3 Deputy of Detention
3 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
3 Meddling Mage
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Mother of Runes
4 Spell Queller

Non-Creature Spells

1 Swords to Plowshares
4 Stifle
4 Force of Will
4 Aether Vial

Lands

1 Island
2 Cavern of Souls
2 Karakas
3 Adarkar Wastes
4 Wasteland
4 Tundra
4 Rishadan Port
4 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

1 Winter Orb
2 Walking Ballista
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Rest in Peace
2 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Ethersworn Canonist
3 Swords to Plowshares
1 Judge's Familiar

Assassin’s Trophy - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Assassin's Trophy

Target Purchase Price
Under $10

Now that Ravnica Allegiance has hit the market, we might be close to the floor on this card. This was the talk of the town when it was spoiled, but has kind of faded into the sunset a bit. However, it shouldn’t be forgotten as it still does see quite a bit of play in multiple formats.

Deputy of Detention - Ravnica Allegiance (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deputy of Detention

Target Purchase Price
Under $2

The price of this has finally calmed down, yet the number of decks that play it continue to rise. This means we could start to see a slow uptick in the near future. It’s also a blue Wizard. So if you didn’t read anything before this, what that means is that it could see play in a new Wizards deck in Modern or alongside Force of Will in Legacy. And it’s already showing up in Legacy Humans.

Legacy: Humans by Dopedafi

Creatures

1 Sanctum Prelate
1 Palace Jailer
2 Imperial Recruiter
2 Phantasmal Image
2 Reflector Mage
3 Meddling Mage
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Mother of Runes
4 Kitesail Freebooter

Non-Creature Spells

4 Aether Vial

Lands

2 Karakas
3 Horizon Canopy
4 Unclaimed Territory
4 Wasteland
4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

2 Surgical Extraction
2 Orzhov Pontiff
2 Knight of Autumn
1 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Faerie Macabre
2 Dismember
1 Deputy of Detention
2 Containment Priest

Karn, Scion of Urza - Dominaria (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn, Scion of Urza

Target Purchase Price
$15-20

I think we’ve been pretty much at the floor on this card for a few months now. I’m not sure how much lower it can go during rotation in October. Can it hit $10? I doubt it since it sees a decent amount of play outside of Standard.

However, if you’re worried about that and have a some extra cash to spend, I would pick up the Mythic Edition version. There are a lot fewer of these in the market, and it has cool full-art artwork.

Folds

Massacre Wurm - Mirrodin Besieged (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Massacre Wurm

Target Sell Price
$20+

A lot of people seem to be going crazy over this in EDH/Commander since the release of Teysa Karlov. I would sell into the hype if you have these, especially because there’s only one printing of this card. Wizards could easily reprint this in a supplemental set.

Surgical Extraction - New Phyrexia (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surgical Extraction

Target Sell Price
$30-40+

This might be a tougher pill to swallow since it sees play in so many decks.

Phyrexian mana as a mechanic is essentially broken, which makes this hard to reprint in any kind of normal set. I could see them adding a Phyrexian mana theme to a supplemental set, though. In any case, this card is at least more resilient to reprints because of its weird mechanic.

Nivmagus Elemental - Return to Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nivmagus Elemental

Target Sell Price
$1-2

This has been showing up recently on the fringes in Legacy. I suspect this is a flash in the pan. I would get rid of these if you have any, especially because a ton of Return to Ravnica was opening owing to the reprint of shocklands.

Card Kingdom is buying these for $2.50 cash and $3.25 store credit.

Legacy: Izzet Delver by Manuel Capponcelli

Creatures

2 True-Name Nemesis
2 Grim Lavamancer
3 Nivmagus Elemental
3 Young Pyromancer
4 Delver of Secrets

Non-Creature Spells

1 Abrade
1 Spell Pierce
2 Spell Snare
3 Flusterstorm
4 Force of Will
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Daze
4 Brainstorm
1 Forked Bolt
4 Ponder

Lands

1 Flooded Strand
1 Mountain
1 Polluted Delta
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Island
3 Volcanic Island
4 Wasteland
4 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard

2 Vapor Snag
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Smash to Smithereens
2 Pyroblast
2 Price of Progress
1 Abrade
1 Sulfur Elemental
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Winter Orb
1 Pithing Needle

Legacy: Azorius Delver by Mw_94ga

Creatures

2 Nivmagus Elemental
4 True-Name Nemesis
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Stoneforge Mystic

Non-Creature Spells

4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Force of Will
4 Flusterstorm
4 Daze
4 Brainstorm
1 Council's Judgment
4 Ponder
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Batterskull

Lands

1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Misty Rainforest
2 Arid Mesa
3 Snow-Covered Island
3 Tundra
4 Wasteland
4 Flooded Strand

Sideboard

1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Rest in Peace
1 Pithing Needle
1 Path to Exile
2 Meddling Mage
1 Karakas
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Disenchant
2 Cataclysm

Searing Blood - Born of the Gods (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Searing Blood

Target Sell Price
$7-10

Burn has started to pick up steam again in Modern with the printing of Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage. We’ve seen many different builds with a lot of them running this card in the sideboard. It only has one printing. And as the metagame continues to adjust, Burn usually gets pushed to the wayside. With that said, I would lock in your value now on these if you have them and aren’t using them.

Card Kingdom is buying these for $7 cash and $9.10 store credit.

Modern: Burn by Derek Pite

Creatures

1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Non-Creature Spells

4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Searing Blaze
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the Critics
4 Lava Spike

Lands

1 Scalding Tarn
1 Bloodstained Mire
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Mountain
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Arid Mesa
4 Inspiring Vantage

Sideboard

4 Smash to Smithereens
3 Skullcrack
3 Searing Blood
3 Path to Exile
2 Exquisite Firecraft

Viashino Pyromancer - Core Set 2019 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Viashino Pyromancer

Target Sell Price
$2-5

Red really hasn’t put up the numbers in Standard. And it might be a while before we see this Wizard used in Modern. I mentioned this in article #14. So if you picked them up then to play with, you can still sell these at a profit now if you’re not playing with them anymore. You can pick them up again cheaper after they rotate in October.

Card Kingdom is buying them at $2 cash and $2.60 store credit.

Bump in the Night - Innistrad (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bump in the Night

Target Sell Price
$1-3

Here’s another card that’s seeing renewed play in Modern due to Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage. I’m not sure if Rakdos Burn is the most optimal build. But if you have these and aren’t using them, you can cash in on the hype before it dies down.

Card Kingdom is buying them at $1.70 cash and $2.21 store credit.

Modern: Rakdos Burn by Enihcamamgine

Creatures

2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Goblin Guide

Non-Creature Spells

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Shard Volley
4 Searing Blaze
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Light Up the Stage
4 Bump in the Night
4 Skewer the Critics

Lands

1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Scalding Tarn
2 Blood Crypt
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Mountain
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Arid Mesa

Sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
4 Smash to Smithereens
4 Searing Blood
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Summary

Recent Buys

  • Silhana Wayfinder - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)
  • Ill-Gotten Inheritance - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)
  • Frilled Mystic - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)
  • Benthic Biomancer - Ravnica Allegiance (Foil)

Holds

  • Lavinia, Azorius Renegade - Game Day & Store Championship Promos
  • Assassin's Trophy - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil)
  • Deputy of Detention - Ravnica Allegiance (Non-Foil)
  • Karn, Scion of Urza - Dominaria (Non-Foil)

Folds

  • Massacre Wurm - Mirrodin Besieged (Non-Foil)
  • Surgical Extraction - New Phyrexia (Non-Foil)
  • Nivmagus Elemental - Return to Ravnica (Foil)
  • Searing Blood - Born of the Gods (Foil)
  • Viashino Pyromancer - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Bump in the Night - Innistrad (Foil)

Public Spreadsheet

Stay up to the minute on what I’m looking at on a daily basis via the MTG Metagame Finance Spreadsheet. Don’t forget to bookmark it, because I update it on the fly. This way you can see what’s going on as the market moves and before articles about certain cards are published.

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng.

Important!!!

You can also catch me in the Discord channel (edward.eng#4978) if you have an Insider membership. I would go as far to say that this is one of the most valuable things you receive as a member. The Discord channel is very active and real-time discussions revolve around cards that move before anyone sees the actual movement—it’s usually already too late when you see this movement on sites like MTG Stocks, MTG Goldfish, and MTG Price. Hit me up on Twitter at @edwardeng, and I’ll answer any questions you have.

I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Lessons Learned: Ravnica Allegiance Mythic Edition

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Last week, Sigmund wrote a great article on why he canceled his order of Ravnica Allegiance Mythic Edition after it failed to sell out. I definitely understand his reasoning, but for those of us who did purchase them – myself included – we should look at the data to establish any final conclusions.

The first thing everyone should have considered was that the RNA Mythic Edition planeswalker list was much weaker than the GRN planeswalker list. GRN had both Liliana, the Last Hope and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria as powerful, highly desirably mythics that see play in multiple eternal formats. RNA Mythic Edition is clearly aimed more at the Commander crowd, given that its heavy hitters are Tamiyo, the Moon Sage and Karn, Scion of Urza, both clearly in a lower league than the GRN chase planeswalkers.

The Numbers

If we look at the GRN Mythic Edition 'walkers market prices three weeks after release and then three months after release, we see:

GRN Mythic Walkers Market 3 Weeks After Release Market 3 Months after Release Price Change
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $139.91 $167.11 19.44%
Liliana, the Last Hope $106.82 $119.09 11.49%
Elspeth, Knight- Errant $90.00 $66.15 -26.50%
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas $45.41 $40.36 -11.12%
Vraska, Golgari Queen $65.91 $49.71 -24.58%
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker $50.21 $33.23 -33.82%
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $43.83 $38.50 -12.16%
Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast $31.78 $26.39 -16.96%
Average -11.78%
Average Negative -20.86%

Honestly, this doesn't bode well for the RNA Walkers. As the average price drop after three months was almost 12 percent (from their current going rate). If we eliminate the two higher-tier walkers, the average drop is almost 21 percent.

Now, we aren't even at the three-weeks-released mark for the RNA 'walkers, and there was a lot of variances the first few weeks after the GRN Mythic Edition was released, so we can't currently compare them 1:1. However, the GRN distribution was also more spaced out and there were a lot of issues with initial sales from the Hasbro website. The RNA release was considerably smoother.

If we do assume that the RNA walker prices have somewhat stabilized, then we likely can expect a continued downward trend for awhile.

RNA Mythic Walkers Current Price Expected Price Assuming 21% Drop
Ajani, Mentor of Heros $28.94 $22.86
Dack Fayden $52.14 $41.19
Domri, Chaos Bringer $21.79 $17.21
Jaya Ballard $18.89 $14.92
Karn, Scion of Urza $61.11 $48.28
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $21.75 $17.18
Sorin Markov $22.82 $18.03
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $52.12 $41.17
Total $279.56 $220.85

Since the product MSRP is $250, this means that most of us who purchased the RNA Mythic Edition and weren't able to unload the planeswalkers as soon as we got them will likely not make much profit on this transaction. It is important to remember that each Mythic Edition did come with 24 packs of cards as well, so if you factor in those, it looks a bit brighter.

This also assumes that we see the same continued price drop as GRN. I actually believe that the fact that so many of them are starting off much lower than the GRN Mythic Edition 'walkers means we will likely see a lower overall percentage drop, as many have plummeted considerably from their very initial price points already.

Lessons Learned

  1. Product demand for the RNA Mythic Edition was clearly much lower than the GRN version. When GRN released, it very quickly sold out on Hasbro's website, and even the ones offered by Channel Fireball at GPs mostly sold out very quickly. The RNA Mythics being offered on eBay actually allowed us to track their sales velocity thanks to eBay's default "sold" information (special thanks to QS's own poppu_mtg for the below graphic). You can see below that they sold very quickly initially but demand quickly petered out. Now it is important to note that this product released at awkward times for both European and Asian customers, however, import taxes and costs would make them much more expensive than for US-based customers. 
  2. A lot of people have stated these products were "slam dunks" when it came to profits based heavily off of the profitability of GRN Mythic Edition. Some of us warned that the weaker power level of the planeswalkers in this set would likely mean lower profits, however, very few expected it to be this bad. The lesson to take away here is to evaluate the cards included in these sets moving forward instead of simply assuming they will all be profitable.
  3. We don't know how many GRN Mythic Editions were ultimately made and sold. However, we were able to pull the number of RNA Mythic Editions from the eBay store, though the listing has since been changed, so you can't see it. Hasbro posted 20,000 RNA Mythic Editions initially. While they are unlikely to repeat the same eBay setup that allowed us to see the quantities available next time, the lackluster sales may hint to WotC that they need to make these products more limited via a lower print run next time. If we do get to see the total number available, I will begin tracking them.
  4. There is a potential for sellers to race too quickly to a price floor on this product, as I've seen numerous sales posts on Facebook offering prices considerably below TCGplayer as people who expected profits are now desperate to recoup the money they sunk into the product. While this isn't guaranteed, it would be smart to monitor these prices and set a buy call should specific cards drop below a certain price point. The best way to determine that price point is to look at other variants of the card's prices. I would expect at least a 2-2.5x multiplier for the Mythic Edition version, so any cards whose Mythic Edition price is lower than that might be worth picking up.
  5. It's important to keep in mind that we are in the beginning of tax season and Magic card sales tend to tick up in February and March as people start getting in their tax refunds and        spending them. People tend to be more willing to make impulse buys with tax return money, as many seem to view it as a yearly "bonus," and high-dollar limited-edition foil                      planeswalkers seem like a likely impulse buy for the Magic community.

Context Clues: Allegiance Testing

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Testing with Ravnica Allegiance has been fruitful. For the most part, the cards that looked good enough for Modern have been. A few cards have even exceeded expectations.

Most of the time in Modern, it's correct to only play the very best card for the job. Raw card power makes up for a variety of other problems and can pull back seemingly lost games. However, that's not always the case. The right tool isn't always a bigger hammer, and sometimes the "better" card is actually worse in many ways. This week, I'm revisiting some Allegiance cards that fall in this category.

Deputy of Detention

I didn't even mention Deputy of Detention during preview season. Most of the reason was that almost everything I would have said had been said before I got around to it. The rest was that I didn't actually think that there was much to say. It looked like another decent, though not great, utility creature in Chord of Calling toolboxes, probably replacing Fiend Hunter. Deputy seemed too weak compared to Reflector Mage to make it on its own merits.

Versus Reflector Mage

Mage is such an insane card that it seemed like a no-brainer. The tempo swing is enormous and devastating in many matchups. Being unable to replay the creature for a full turn is often lethal in race situations, and a 2/3 is decent on both offense and defense. Being a Human just supercharges its power and playability.

Meanwhile, Deputy is a smaller 1/3, and if it leaves the battlefield the permanent is returned without need to spend additional mana or time. It also has less-useful and synergistic creature types. Deputy can hit any nonland permanent and its siblings, but it dies to everything that kills Reflector Mage. If that happens before the ability has resolved, then nothing happens and you've wasted mana, unlike with Mage.

Contextual Improvement

The catch is that in a lot of matchups, Mage is just a 2/3 for three. Sometimes it's arguably worse than that because the all the creatures have enters-the-battlefield abilities and bouncing them is doing the opponent a favor. And it will return to play baring intervention. This means that if that tempo swing isn't enough, playing Mage might be self-defeating. Also, rather facetiously, not every deck has creatures in the first place.

There's no guarantee that Deputy will be killed, and so the removed permanent may never return. That's not really a good enough reason to beat out Mage. What is: how many noncreature permanents see play, and how many multiples are reliably in play. Taking dangerous artifacts, enchantments, and planeswalkers in addition to creatures means that Deputy has text beyond its stats in every matchup.

Furthermore, Reflecting one Bloodghast or Arclight Phoenix while facing down several is pretty mediocre. The rest will swing freely and it's not like either will stay in hand waiting to be recast in the first place. Using Deputy means they're all gone for the life of the lawman. That's significant.

In straightforward creature matchups and race situations, Reflector Mage is superior thanks to its better stats, type line, and ability. However, the versatility of Deputy cannot be overlooked in this shifting format. Outside of Humans, I now believe that Deputy of Detention is superior to Mage.

Lavinia, Azorius Renegade

I discussed Lavinia at length during Ravnica Allegiance previews. Basically, I thought that Lavinia wasn't as good a sideboard card as Gaddock Teeg because her first ability was too soft and the second one too niche to see widespread play. I expected Lavinia to see play as a compliment to Spell Queller and as maindeck hate in combo heavy matchups. Testing has prompted me to revise my opinion.

To be clear, in most situations, Teeg is still the harder answer. However, his main appeal was shutting down Ironworks, a deck that no longer exists, which lowers his stock. I also found through experience that Lavinia's ability is much closer to Teeg's against Tron and Miracles than expected. Neither decks reliably hits land drops five plus on time that often, and by then it's frequently too late. There have also been occasions where Lavinia relevantly prevented Burn from spectacle-casting Skewer the Critics and/or Light Up the Stage.

However, it was the second ability that really surprised me. It's far more relevant than anticipated. Firstly, suspend spells are seeing more play with Electrodominance getting tested. Secondly, in my local metagame and on MTGO I've seen spikes in Amulet Titan, Living End, and Valakut decks. Lavinia counters Summoner's Pact, Living End, and Search for Tomorrow, all of which are critically important to their respective decks. Answering suspended Search in particular has been crucial because RG Valakut decks of all stripes only have it and Sakura-Tribe Elder for independent ramp.

This has left the real test being whether Lavinia can compete with Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. I've become confidant she can, not just in Spirits but throughout Modern. Stats- and versatility-wise, Lavinia is much worse than Thalia, but in context, she's much better.

In Context

Most of the time I've found Thalia to be Lightning Bolt fodder. I haven't had a relevant Thalia in any deck survive more than one turn in any matchup in months. It's been getting worse since the UR Phoenix decks started maindecking Gut Shot.

Even when Thalia has survived, she hasn't been that important. She's outclassed by far too much these days, and the taxing isn't making up the difference. Thalia has always been a just speed bump for spell-dependent decks; the question is how easily they get over the bump. Legacy is defined by cantrip dependence and low land counts. Slowing down the velocity and requiring extra mana is frequently insurmountable. None of that is true in Modern, and thus it's easier to overcome the tax. Even against Phoenix decks where Thalia should be good, Thing in the Ice answers her by brickwalling the clock until it can Awaken, remove the tax, and unleash the deck. Thalia hits everything, but not well.

Meanwhile, Lavinia is technically worse. In most matchups she's just a 2/2 bear and not really worth killing. She'll never win at combat, so why worry about an otherwise textless card? I've gotten more damage through with Lavinia than Thalia in comparable situations, but that's not enough reason to play a card. The real reason is impact magnitude. Thalia has a marginal effect against almost everything. Lavinia only hits a few decks, but she hits them hard.

A Place in Modern

I underestimated just how massive an effect Lavinia could have in the right matchups and how widespread they were becoming. Removing Krark-Clan Ironworks has reopened the space for combo decks, and suddenly Lavinia has more targets. Amulet Titan loses its tutoring engine, arguably the heart of the deck. Storm cannot go off turn three under Lavinia because Gifts Ungiven and Past in Flames are uncastable. Living End is similarly bricked. What Lavinia does is demand an answer from affected decks, where Thalia just asks a question.

As a result, I've come to believe that Lavinia has a place in Modern independent of Spell Queller or other support cards. I don't think she'll ever see the widespread play of Thalia (partially due to color requirements and partially her more limited usage), but the play she does see will be devastating. I have been playing her in UW Spirits to good effect alongside Queller, but if Tron or combo decks become more prevalent, I expect more decks will pick up Lavinia.

UW Spirits (Test Deck)

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Rattlechains
4 Supreme Phantom
2 Phantasmal Image
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
3 Deputy of Detention
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Hallowed Fountain
3 Cavern of Souls
3 Ghost Quarter
4 Plains
3 Island

Sideboard

1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
1 Deputy of Detention
3 Damping Sphere
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Negate
2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Settle the Wreckage

If you're a Spirits player heading to Toronto this weekend, I highly recommend maindecking Deputy whether you're playing UW or Bant. In a format where prison players are beginning to emerge from the woodwork again, maindeck answers to Ensnaring Bridge are vital. I've also seen more UR Phoenix players adopting Pyromancer Ascension, and having an answer or at least a way to reset the enchantment is quite good. Deputy also frees up sideboard slots that would have gone to general answers like Disenchant.

I had both the Lavinias maindeck for awhile, but Tron has drastically fallen off locally, so I switched the second out for another Deputy. If Tron comes back in force, I would replace Kira with the second Lavinia.

Growth Spiral

My next card has actually met my expectations, but the decks it goes in do not. Growth Spiral is on track to have a huge impact on Standard, but Modern is another story. In my preview, I predicted that it wouldn't see widespread play because it simply didn't belong in currently existing decks. It would take a very specific deck filled with instants for Spiral to be useful. It appears that I'm not alone in this belief and that it's correct so far, because the only deck I could find using Spiral was from the recent Modern 5-0 listings.

Bring to Light Scapeshift, Savagebeats (5-0 MTGO Competitive)

Creature

4 Sakura-Tribe Elder

Enchantments

4 Prismatic Omen

Instants

4 Growth Spiral
4 Remand
2 Izzet Charm
4 Cryptic Command

Sorceries

1 Farseek
4 Search for Tomorrow
1 Anger of the Gods
2 Scapeshift
4 Bring to Light

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Stomping Grounds
4 Steam Vents
3 Island
2 Breeding Pool
2 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
2 Forest
1 Cinder Glade
1 Flooded Grove
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Prairie Stream

Sideboard

4 Obstinate Baloth
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Gigadrowse
2 Negate
1 Platinum Emperion
1 Madcap Experiment
1 Crumble to Dust
1 Shatterstorm

I wonder why this deck has a 14 card sideboard. I thought that it would be strict Temur Scapeshift that would play Spiral, but I also frequently forget that Bring to Light exists. This deck, with its abundance of lands and instants, is a natural home for Spiral and showcases how the card should be used.

However, one result is not a great showing for the Spiral. It's a little disappointing for such a promising card, but I'm not too surprised. There may be a lot to recommend about Spiral eligible decks, particularly additional flexibility and interaction, but it's currently not enough to justify their more complex natures. The simpler Titanshift is going to win more.

The Problem

There are a number of players at my LGS who are trying to make Temur Scapeshift work and not getting anywhere. One played it back in Splinter Twin days, and one is an eternally optimistic brewer; they're approaching the deck from very different angles. The former dreams of combo-control, while the latter has swung between pure combo and tempo-combo. Spiral is a good card in both decks and arguably the glue that holds them together. However, neither have won with any version of the deck so far.

The problems vary, but the underlying one is speed. Not necessarily their decks' speed, but their opponents'. Twin aside, Modern was slower in 2015 because the fast decks of today weren't viable. The Fundamental Turn has decreased, and it's proving hard for Temurshift to keep up. Bolt-Snap-Bolt is powerful removal, but not as much as it used to be. Thus playing one land a turn with one or two extra just isn't enough to kill fast enough. This requires them to reprioritize constantly and it's not working. The deck is getting strained in too many directions to be coherent and successful.

The Other Problem

This leads into the larger problem for the hopeful brewers because in the same time period the normal GR Titanshift pilots have done very well. This begs the thus-far unanswered question: why bother with the counters and Spiral? Titanshift has more ramp, so it kills faster and doesn't have to worry as much about opposing decks. This proactiveness makes it a more coherent strategy.

The other problem is that Titanshift rarely has to worry about failing to kill withScapeshift. Most of Titanshift's lands are mountains of one form or another, so it shouldn't have to worry about fetching too many. The multi-colored Valakut decks usually run just enough mountains so if they don't have Prismatic Omen and/or the game runs long, they can draw too many and the kill will fail. This has been a problem for my brewers. So far, Titan keeps being so much better a deck than Temur, despite its one-sidedness, that the additional interaction isn't worthwhile.

Developing Format

Modern is showing quite a bit of adaptation and development from Ravnica Allegiance. I'm sure there's a lot more still in the brewing labs and I hope to see it at the GP level soon. Until then, don't be discouraged, and keep testing.

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