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Daily Stock Watch – Arena Rector

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! There are lots of movement in the Standard market as decks are starting to emerge as new decks are starting to emerge one by one. In the wake of these developments, let us focus our attention on the market that everyone is not paying much attention to as this is where we could get some financial leverage in our spec buying. The format I'm talking about is Commander, and I would like to single out a card from the set that's now slowly being forgotten in Battlebond.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arena Rector

This card just reached its all-time low of $14.49 today and I think that this trend will slowly continue in the coming days. I'm not sure up to what price this could dip to, but I would be very interested to go all in on it for $10-$12. The card does the same effect as Academy Rector, although that card is a special case because it's part of the reserved list, and that the scope of "win now" cards in the form of enchantments are quite bigger than that of planeswalkers (which is what Arena Rector could fetch when it dies) With all these in consideration, it's still a pretty good investment in my opinion because it will always have casual appeal and the number of BBD boxes being opened will eventually dip. Guilds of Ravnica, Dominaria, and Core 2019 are all doing well at the moment and it's the primary source of income from the big market. Secondary markets would be more interested in the older formats and based on experience, most of the big bucks are particularly made on these cards than those that go up and down quickly in the course of the Standard season.

Battlebond Goodies

These are the cards that I'm targeting from the set and I think that going after their foils is the best idea for spec purposes. Doubling Season, Seedborn Muse and True-Name Nemesis are old reliables while the rest of the cards in my list are new cards that are exclusive to this set. There's a lot of value in the foils but casual favorites like Arena Rector will stand out because it's easy to splash and the pay off that players could get in showing off their planeswalkers (could easily be from SDCC, the Mythic Edition, or normal foil ones) when it dies is very interesting in its entirety. The card is not as powerful as it seems but everything that's written on it says otherwise. Just exactly the kind of card that we should be interested in investing on as it caters to the market where haggling and spending is not given that much attention to. There will always be a constant demand for this card in the future, and this is definitely one of those cards that we would want to have a stock of when everything goes MIA in stores.

At the moment, you could get copies of Arena Rector from online stores such as StarCityGames, Card Kingdom and multiple vendors from TCGPlayer for as low as $11.54 and up to $15.99. I would be very interested in these copies worth $12 and less but you could play it out a bit and see if it could go to as low as $10. Foil copies have been popular since day one (and pricey as well) but that's a bit justified since cards like this have so much appeal to collectors and high end players. If we're looking for figures, I'd say it's good to invest at $60 or less for the foil copies as they will be worth a lot by as early as next year when the next set that's set up just like BBD is released. It's a very safe investment if you ask me.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

GRN Standard and the State of Shocklands

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Standard card prices have exploded over the past several weeks. History of Benalia tripled from 6 tix to 18 tix. Vraska's Contempt more than doubled from 4.5 tix to 10 tix. Rekindling Phoenix surged back up to 30 tix, and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria cracked the 40 tix mark.

Interest in Standard post-rotation has surged, and people are invested in playing it. I myself have been playing Standard for the first time since Theros block, and I'm likely not alone. At any given time there are now 1600 people in the Standard Leagues on MTGO; this is more people than were playing Standard in the Spring, and that number continues to grow by about 50 per day. This is great news for Magic Online investors and players.

Today we're going to look at how high popular Standard cards can go. Folks are especially interested in the Guilds of Ravnica shocklands, so let's get right to it!

Shocklands - How High Can They Go?

Investing in lands is one of the easy no-brainers in Magic Online finance. Rare land cycles always go up once their sets cease to be drafted. What's harder to discern is when to sell, when to know how high they will go.

I remember investing in the Kaladesh fastlands, buying most of them for between 0.75 and 1.00 tix. In turn, I sold most of them for between 2.25 and 3.00 tix. A nice profit to be sure, but…

…I left a lot of money on the table.

I figured that these lands, widely opened in a fall set, wouldn't have ceilings higher than 5 tix, and boy was I wrong.

There are many factors that affect how high lands in a rare land cycle can go. How many printings does it have? And how long ago were its first printings? Were they printed in large fall sets or smaller summer Core sets? Are they seeing closer to four copies per deck, or closer to two? Do they have demand in Modern and Legacy, or just in Standard? How high is their frequency in the treasure chests?

All of these variables are important to consider, and identifying other land cycles with similar answers to the above can often serve as a helpful guidepost. For a list of all the rare dual land cycles, along with their original printings and reprintings, click here.

The Guilds of Ravnica rare duals are now experiencing their third printing, first in 2005-2006 and next in 2012-2013. We might go ahead and say that this is their fourth printing due to their perpetual inclusion in the treasure chests. These see extensive Modern play and will constitute the backbone of Standard decks.

My forecast for these lands is that they will peak somewhere in the 3.0 to 6.0 tix range. The last time we saw a cycle of lands printed in the major fall set for Standard that saw extensive Modern and Standard play was when the allied fetchlands were reprinted in Khans of Tarkir:

If you recall, these peaked between 8.50 and 11.00 tix. We should expect the Guilds of Ravnica shocklands to peak lower than that since there are far more Steam Vents and Overgrown Tombs in the wild than there were Flooded Strands and Wooded Foothills at the time. Peaks between 3.00 and 6.00 therefore seem like reasonable expectations for these lands, and they'll probably crater down to 1.00 or 2.00 tix after they rotate out of Standard.

It's a bit too early to invest in anything in Guilds of Ravnica, but these lands are all at fair prices right now if you want to pick them up for your Modern collection or to play with in Standard.

Steam Vents {UR} : 3.54 tix
Overgrown Tomb {BG} : 1.90 tix
Watery Grave {UB} : 1.00 tix
Sacred Foundry {RW} : 0.97 tix
Temple Garden {WG} : 0.78 tix

I expect them to dip about 20-percent over the next month. Guilds of Ravnica as a set is still holding a high value of $90, and the basic economics of redemption will force that down closer to $70 over the next month or two.

Golgari Here, Golgari There, Golgari Everywhere!

I've done a lot of selling this month, in part thanks to price spikes like this.

Initially Magic players took to white-based strategies revolving around History of Benalia, Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice, and Lyra Dawnbringer. However, it didn't take long for Jadelight Ranger, Ravenous Chupacabra, Find // Finality, and Vraska, Relic Seeker to overtake them as Golgari emerged as the deck to beat in Standard.

Even now, cards like Carnage Tyrant and Vivien Reid continue to rise. When should you sell?

Vivien Reid has now breached the 20-tix mark, and there is no precedent for a card like her to stay above 20 tix. I've now sold all the copies I'm not playing with. What's thrust her price so high is that (i) she is a maindeck card in a dominant strategy; (ii) she is a prominent card in lesser Green strategies; and (iii) she is from a small set. I expect her price to cool off down to 15 tix even if Golgari cannot be dethroned, although maybe the supply of Core 19 is so low that she'll stay above 20.

Jadelight Ranger is a card I invested heavily in, and I've now relinquished my holdings of her. It's hard for a rare that isn't colorless or removal to rocket north of 10 tix, and Jadelight Ranger's price spike is indicative of Golgari's dominating performance online over the past week. Expect her to slowly dip back down to 7.00 tix over the next several weeks.

Doom Whisperer is a card that fellow MTGO financier Chas Andres has recommended speculating on, and indeed it has been rising in value over the past week despite copies entering the market through Limited.

I think 19 tix is a fair valuation of the card. I would hold any copies I need for playing with and would sell the rest. Guilds of Ravnica still has a long way to fall, and I think a lot of that will necessarily come from its most expensive cards: Doom Whisperer and Assassin's Trophy.

I think it's more likely that Doom Whisperer is a 10-tix card one month from now than a 25-tix card. Like Chas, I think this card has a bright financial future ahead of it, but I'd like to see Limited demand cool off before owning more than a playset.

Signing Off

I look forward to reading your comments and questions down below. How have y'all been enjoying Guilds of Ravnica Standard and Draft? Until next time, and have a good rest of your week.

In Questionable Company: Updating Spirits

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Every player has their own biases and preferences when it comes to deck selection. There's nothing wrong with playing to strengths, and it is important to remember that Magic is a game. You have more fun playing something you enjoy. However, this goes both ways, and you can dislike a deck for less-than-rational reasons. I have a problem with the most popular version of Bant Spirits that has little to do with the deck itself.

I don't enjoy playing the latest version of Bant Spirits, but that doesn't mean that it's a bad deck by any means. I prefer UW Spirits, and would probably play it even if I didn't have hang-ups with the Bant version. Outside of personal preference, I don't feel that Bant Spirits in any form utilizes Collected Company very well. Why this is and how I'd rather use Company are the topics for today's article.

UW Staying Strong

While I've been experimenting with new decks since the end of PPTQ season, I do make sure that my workhorse is in shape. UW Spirits will remain a powerful tool against the Modern metagame while control decks, Burn, and Humans dominate Tier 1. I haven't had much reason to change the maindeck, but I have been working on the sideboard.

UW Spirits, by David Ernenwein

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Rattlechains
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Supreme Phantom
2 Phantasmal Image
2 Remorseful Cleric
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
2 Geist of Saint Traft
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Hallowed Fountain
3 Cavern of Souls
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Plains
1 Island

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
2 Rest in Peace
2 Negate
2 Damping Sphere
2 Echoing Truth
2 Blessed Alliance
2 Worship

My anti-creature plan of winning the tempo game and using Slaughter the Strong to catch up left something to be desired. Here, I instead went for a prison plan using Worship. Cutting the Slaughters for another Echoing Truth has paid dividends against UW Control. Terminus is hard to fight, but responding with Truth to retrieve whichever creature we have multiples of saves the day. Truth is also great against tokens and any deck with problematic permanents like Ensnaring Bridge.

Worship has been a bit of a disappointment for me. Players have gotten the memo about Spirits and know to bring in answers for non-creature permanents. Assassin's Trophy also really hurts the card. I've had success using it as a multi-turn Fog to buy time to catch up on damage, but it never earns an automatic concession anymore. I'll keep looking for a better anti-creature strategy. Other than that, I'm very happy with UW Spirits.

Bant's Adaptation

However, despite some strong showings, UW is still not the Spirits deck of choice for most Modern players. That honor goes to Bant Spirits, and specifically the version with Aether Vial. Ondrej Strasky won GP Stockholm with the deck, which has since received the endorsement of a Hall of Famer.

Bant Spirits, by Adam Fronsee (SCG Columbus Classic, 8th Place)

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Supreme Phantom
3 Phantasmal Image
2 Selfless Spirit
1 Rattlechains
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
2 Geist of Saint Traft

Artifacts

3 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Collected Company
4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
3 Flooded Strand
2 Horizon Canopy
2 Cavern of Souls
2 Botanical Sanctum
1 Temple Garden
1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Seachrome Coast
1 Moorland Haunt
1 Forest
1 Island
1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
3 Unified Will
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Rest in Peace
2 Dromoka's Command
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Geist of Saint Traft

While the no-Vial version isn't my cup of tea, I like that version better than this one. I feel that the deck is full of compromises. Both Ondrej and Paulo admitted as much. It is a hybrid between UW and Bant, picking aspects of one to cover weaknesses of the other.

As a result, it has better matchups across the board, but its good matchups aren't as favorable as those of the other Spirits decks. With fewer Company hits, Vial Bant isn't as grindy as no-Vial Bant, and fewer Vials and Rattlechains means it isn't as tricky as UW. It therefore leans more on hitting lords than either alternative does. Merfolk players know well the power of lords, but leaning on a small number of cards to make a deck good creates more failure states through variance or disruption. I'd rather have spikier matchup percentages and more reliable gameplans.

On Rattlechains

Another aspect I don't like is the lack of Rattlechains. Paulo likes the card, but needed something to cut, while Ondrej just thinks it's bad. And true, Rattlechains isn't very impressive in terms of stats; rather, it shines given the context, and I'd argue that this metagame is friendly to Chains. Against Jeskai, it's Spirits's best card, since that matchup revolves around two-for-ones. Even when that isn't the case, Rattlechains is powerful because it's a flash creature that makes more flash creatures, allowing the deck to play at instant speed.

Rattlechains is a card that to jam on the opponent's end step after making them play around a counterspell, hopefully sub-optimally. After that, it creates more uncertainty for the opponent, as we could have anything at anytime and potentially wreck them. This intangible information advantage and stress generation can translate into game wins.

The Intangible Problem

Vial Bant Spirits is a Frankenstein of a deck (for the record, any commenter who says "Actually, it's Frankenstein's Monster" earns my scorn). Bant and UW have separate identities as the deck that overwhelms or outplays opponents, respectively. This new version is a hybrid, aspiring to the overwhelming card advantage of Collected Company and the tricky mana advantage of Aether Vial. Maybe if I hadn't worked on Spirits as long I as I have, I wouldn't have a problem with the Bant Vial build.

However, my experience with the archetype renders me acutely attuned to the minor inefficiencies that hybridizing Bant and UW creates, and subsequently to where each deck is superior to Bant Vial. Bant Vial has fewer creatures than no-Vial, and so Company whiffs more often. It also can't run all the utility lands, and they're integral to no-Vial. Despite only having three Vials, Bant Vial is more reliant on them than UW. Rattlechains provides UW a lot of flexibility and makes it easy to play at instant speed and gain more value from Captain or Phantom. To match that, Bant Vial must either hit well with Company or have Vial out. UW also has more flex slots maindeck which allows for more metagame tuning and adaptation.

In other words, because of my experience I can see the seams and scars left over from making the monster. Other players seem to see what the creator intended; a new lifeform, whole and flawless. It cannot be that to me, at least right now, because I'm too invested in the results of my own tweaking to stomach the stitch-work.

Rehoming Collected Company

One big issue with the hybridized Spirits deck is its lackluster Collected Companies. The deck has few passable targets outside of Drogskol Captain. Casting Company to look for Spell Queller or Selfless Spirit in response to a dangerous spell has a high ceiling, but can be quite risky.

Company is not a card that can just be jammed into any deck with creatures and be great. Yes, Company will find creatures and put them into play, which is always card advantage. Company can be straight tempo advantage if it finds 4+ mana worth of creatures, but simply getting creatures from the deck on the opponent's end step technically provides a tempo advantage, too. Digging six cards into the deck is also quite good. However, that's not what makes Company a great Magic card. Playing Company "for value" is like using Black Lotus to cast three Birds of Paradise turn one. It's not wrong, but it is a long way from right.

If believe the best way to play Collected Company is to play Collected Company. Or, because I like using symmetrical tautologies as a teaching tool, instead of going for value, play Company for value. Company decks excel when they use the card to explicitly go for the most value as they possibly can. The Standard Bant Company decks that nearly got Company banned were built to maximize each Company. They were designed to hit 5-6 mana worth of cards every time, and every single creature gained value on its own. The creatures were already spells, and Company made them instants. Modern has typically used Company to dig for combo pieces, which is also very good. So why mess about with dinky fliers?

A Shell Worth Four Mana

Most recent Bant Company decks revolve around Knight of the Reliquary. Sometimes it's to execute the Retreat to Coralhelm combo, but usually they're just big threats that find utility lands. I don't like this plan. Coralhelm combo has never worked as well as Splinter Twin, despite hopes to the contrary, while Knight takes too long to become threatening in my book. Durdling around fetching lands and getting wrecked by Fatal Push is not what I want from a Company deck. Instead, I want my Bant Company cards to be good right away.

Bant Company, by David Ernenwein

Creatures

4 Noble Hierarch
2 Devoted Druid
1 Vizier of Remedies
3 Duskwatch Recruiter
1 Rhonas the Indominable
2 Voice of Resurgence
2 Scavenging Ooze
3 Eternal Witness
3 Spell Queller
2 Reflector Mage
2 Tireless Tracker
2 Knight of Autumn

Instants

4 Collected Company
4 Chord of Calling
3 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
3 Flooded Strand
3 Misty Rainforest
2 Forest
2 Horizon Canopy
2 Gavony Township
1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Temple Garden
1 Botanical Sanctum
1 Plains
1 Island

I've included the Devoted Druid combo package because winning on turn three is very attractive. I've only included a few copies of each piece because my experience has been that it just isn't a reliable path to victory when the opponent has any interaction. Considering the aforementioned metagame, I expect plenty of interaction. However, it's nice to just win against linear decks. I wish I could risk cutting the Path to Exiles for additional copies of Knight of Autumn, Spell Queller, and Reflector Mage, but dedicated Counters Company Combo is popular enough in my area that I need cheap answers.

The goal of the rest of the deck is to get as much value from our creatures as possible. Hitting any two utility creatures on is great and frequently provides more than two cards and six mana of value. In testing Reflector Mage plus Knight of Autumn has been game winning against Hardened Affinity while Voice of Resurgence and Scavenging Ooze are huge problems for creature decks. Queller is frequently mediocre off end step value Companies, so I've starting firing Company off in response to almost anything Queller can stop just to get that sweet value hit.

This greatest advantage is deck grinds harder than a machine shop. Chaining the same Company using Eternal Witnesses is backbreaking for any attrition deck, and Witness is arguably the best hit as a result. So too are an active Tireless Tracker or Duskwatch Recruiter. So long as sweepers are kept in mind, it is almost impossible to run out of gas in this deck. Couple that with [mtg_card]Gavony Township and, given time, there's no fair deck that can't be out-valued and overwhelmed.

Tron is a weakness game 1, but that's why my current sideboard is Damping Sphere. And nothing else, as I'm still working on the sideboard and am spoiled for choice. There are a lot of options to transform the deck into a straight combo deck, change up the value package, or go for traditional hate and hole-filling, and I don't know which is best. I don't even know if this Bant Company deck is better than Bant Spirits. What I do know is that I've never felt like I'm wasting time with Company in this deck, and that nagging disquiet I get playing Bant Spirits is gone.

Playing to Strengths

Certain decks just don't fit some players style or preferences. Regardless of its results, Bant Spirits just isn't for me. I want my Spirits to be tricky and Companies so value-laden they melt the table. That doesn't mean the alternatives are bad in a vacuum. The format is Modern. Pick what you want to play and master it.

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David Ernenwein

David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.

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Latest Changes to Buylists

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I continue to browse MTG Stocks every day, checking out the Interests page to identify top movers and shakers. On the surface, the market appears to remain calm. In fact many Old School staples have had a steady, downward trajectory these past few months.

It comes as no surprise that various Standard cards are lighting up the charts, however. Star of Extinction was the latest card to spike, but there are plenty of other cards that offered solid return on investment as the new metagame unfolds. Despite having no interest in the format, even I managed to blunder into some profits on Runaway Steam-Kin.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Runaway Steam-Kin

But if we dig a little deeper—beyond Standard and beyond MTG Stocks—I believe there are some tectonic shifts taking place in the market. This week I want to examine some very recent shifts in vendor buylists that may be an indication of what’s to come.

The Trees are Singing

There continue to be market forces that drive demand (maybe artificial, maybe real) for cards from Magic’s earliest sets. I was fairly convinced we would see sideways to downward motion on prices for at least a few more months. After spiking pretty hard, the pullback on cards that are rare but not very playable is easy to see on a chart. Look at Singing Tree, for example.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Singing Tree

I was fully expecting to see this card continue a listless move sideways with little catalyst on the horizon. Then a couple of things caught my eye out of nowhere.

First, there’s this controversial post from Vintage Magic:

We all know how much Daniel Chang and Rudy of Alpha Investments have catalyzed higher prices for these cards. They’ve become controversial figures in the community for being so open about purchasing many copies of the same old cards. Let’s put judgment aside for a moment. Whether we like it or not, posts like these can catalyze panic-buying and higher demand.

But we don’t need to seek out boogie men to find a reason for climbing Arabian Nights prices. Recently, Card Kingdom has been displaying some fairly aggressive buy prices on certain cards. In fact, check out this buylist I just submitted this past week!

This is an extremely aggressive buy price, especially given how generous Card Kingdom is when paying a downgrade percentage. I predict my copy will be EX, which means I should net just over $85 for my copy. That’s about $7 below market price on TCGplayer—after fees there’s no way I could have made that much selling on eBay.

While We’re at Card Kingdom…

For a couple months, I’ve been watching Card Kingdom’s buylist prices on Old School cards drop steadily. Then, out of nowhere, it appears Card Kingdom decided to suddenly jack up buy prices on certain cards. I watched them up their buy price on Singing Tree from $55 to $75 to $95 over the course of a couple days.

I observe these trends because I literally browse their buylist at least twice a day. Obsessed? Possibly. But when prices move so quickly (they already dropped Singing Tree down to $85 for example), catching the peak can mean an extra bit of cash in my account.

These sudden buylist bumps go beyond just green creatures from Arabian Nights, too. For a hot minute they had a $1400 buylist on Library of Alexandria. That lasted about a day until they presumably got more copies back in stock. They also had a buy price on Bazaar of Baghdad of around $1200 but that didn’t last either.

Funny enough, Star City Games currently has a $1200 buy price on Near Mint Bazaars. If you've got a minty copy you want to buylist, ship to SCG. If your copy has any wear whatsoever, you will be better off sticking to Card Kingdom because their downgrade percentage is more generous.

Most recently, Card Kingdom has upped their buy price on Arabian Nights City of Brass.

There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Brass

They were paying less and less over the past couple months, then suddenly they upped their buy price to $315. That’s quite aggressive. And it’s not like they’re out of stock and eagerly trying to replenish. That was the case for Library of Alexandria, where they were down to just a single played copy in stock at one point. CK has ten Cities in stock, four being VG and six G. While I’m sure they’d prefer some minty copies in stock, they aren’t exactly out of the card.

Before moving on, here are some other aggressive Card Kingdom numbers worth your consideration:

Candelabra of Tawnos: $665
Ydwen Efreet: $85

ABU Games’s Bold Move

If you are wondering why Card Kingdom has zero NM Arabian Nights City of Brass in stock, you may not have to look very far for a reason. ABU Games currently has a $351 buy price on the card. Cash! Their ridiculous credit number is up to $802.50! But their played buy prices aren’t as generous as Card Kingdom’s, hence why CK probably has only played copies in stock.

In fact, ABU Games continues to have best-in-class buy prices on near mint Arabian Nights cards. And I’m not even referring to their crazy credit offers (more on that in a sec). We’re talking cash. $92.14 for Singing Tree and $113.10 for Ifh-Biff Efreet are two other best-in-class cash buy prices on the site.

Admittedly, they aren’t paying that great on other Arabian Nights cards. And I suspect the same can be said for Legends and Antiquities. There are probably a few stand-outs, but no noteworthy trend.

Then you look at their Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited numbers and all bets are off.

ABU Games pays an exorbitant amount of store credit for cards from Magic’s first three sets. I know I’ve written about this in the past, but I need to bring this up again because just this past week they increased their numbers even further! Seriously! I have a few random Alpha uncommons I’ve been thinking of unloading now that prices have settled, and I was shocked to find out that I could get $85.50 in store credit for my played Fire Elemental.

That’s an impressive number. But if you really want to have your socks knocked off, you have to examine numbers for some of the more playable Old School cards. A played Unlimited Chaos Orb will only fetch you $412.42 in cash, but you can get a whopping $1282.50 in store credit! That puts Card Kingdom’s and Star City Games’s numbers far behind, even with credit bonuses. A played, Unlimited Underground Sea will net you $1425 in store credit. If you prefer cash, you’re better off shipping to Card Kingdom, but this is a crazily high store credit number.

Don’t even get me started on Power (a played Unlimited Black Lotus fetches you $9975 in store credit). Across the board, ABU Games is offering even more in store credit for your desirable Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards. This in addition to their occasionally aggressive numbers on Near Mint stuff from Magic’s earliest expansions.

Who is more to-blame here for inflated prices now? Daniel Chang for his goofy post, which was likely a friendly jab at Rudy, or ABU Games for their inflationary practices on Old School cards?

Some Watchouts

Before you start planning your retirement on Alpha Glasses of Urzas, however, you need to be aware of a couple things. First and foremost, ABU Games increased both their buylist credit numbers and their sell prices. The two move together in tandem (naturally), so while $1200 sounds like a huge number, it really isn’t convertible to cash so easily.

In reality, I would assume 60-70% value when trading into ABU Games. In other words, $1200 in trade credit should net you cards that you could sell for $720-$840. This still beats their cash pricing most of the time, but it does represent an inefficiency when dealing with ABU Games.

Even Card Kingdom has higher prices on most cards now, when compared to TCGplayer. At one point in time, you could acquire “Good” Beta and Unlimited cards for below TCG low pricing because of Card Kigndom’s aggressive downgrade on “Good” pricing. But recently their prices have caught up with the rest of the market—they have plenty in stock now, but the pricing isn’t as much of a steal as it once was. Keep this in mind when trading into Card Kingdom for store credit. Lately I’ve been sticking to cash.

Lastly, keep in mind that these strengthening buylists are somewhat isolated. ABU Games may be offering a load of credit for Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited cards, but their cash prices from those sets are unexciting. Their numbers are very inconsistent from the early expansions. Card Kingdom is the same way—pockets of aggressive numbers, but at the same time they also have many weaker numbers. For example, their buy prices on Legends cards are all much lower than they were a couple months ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Angus Mackenzie

Put simply, we need to continue monitoring these movements closely. There are some opportunities that could arise (such as Singing Tree) and we need to be prepared. But by no means can we declare that we’re out of the woods yet on this pullback. But with the way some big time market movers are behaving, you never know.

Wrapping It Up

I felt obligated to return to the subject of Old School buylist prices because the market has been so dynamic lately. ABU Games made some dramatic changes to their trade credit numbers just this past week, and these should be flagged. This is yet another move by the large retailer that furthers their inflationary problems.

If you have any store credit with ABU Games, I encourage you to spend it all immediately. At the rate things are going, they could one day be dealing solely in store credit rather than cash because of the large divide in value between the two. Keep this in mind.

Card Kingdom’s credit is far more stable, but their sell prices aren’t as attractive as they once were either. At least, not on Old School stuff. I’m sure you can find opportunities on their site—well priced cards from other sets. I’m just reacting to the market I track most closely. And from this vantage point, things are very much in flux right now. Other than Standard, this is probably the most interesting market at this moment. And since I know so little about Standard, I will stick to reporting on the news as I see it from the Old School vantage point.

Sigbits

  • I’ve got some more crazy trade credit numbers from ABU Games to share. How about a played Alpha Serra Angel. ABU Games offers $665 in trade credit for this card. This is fairly impressive considering played copies aren’t worth nearly as much as their near mint counterparts. Perhaps more shocking is the fact that you can get $60.56 in credit by trading in a played International Edition copy of the same card!
  • Not long ago I picked up a creased Alpha Icy Manipulator for use in my all Alpha cube. I got it for a good price. But I did not anticipate that ABU Games would be offering $565.50 in store credit for heavily played copies of the card! If that sounds baffling, consider that they're offering $760 in trade credit for played copies!
  • Let’s end on a high note: consider trading in a heavily played Beta Shivan Dragon into ABU Games. This would net you a whopping $1815 in store credit! But remember, that’s not equal to $1815 in cash—not even close. You can probably flip that credit for about $1100-$1200 worth of cards. Considering that CK pays $1260 on “VG” copies, though, you may be better off skipping the interim step and selling directly to Card Kingdom for cash.

Why Magic Arena Makes Me Optimistic About the Market in 2019

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The official release of Guilds of Ravnica last week has ended the summer doldrums and ushered in a new season for the Magic market. Players are excited about the freshly rotated Standard format, which over the past two years has been plagued by multiple rounds of bannings and a stale metagame.

Rotation has provided a fresh start, and so far things look great. Magic Online releases 5-0 decklists from leagues with an algorithm that selects for uniqueness. The two dozen or so decklists released last week have been followed up this week by nearly 100.

So there’s evidence that players are trying, and succeeding, with a ton of new ideas—the sign of a healthy format. Even the hyper-competitive Pro Tour Qualifier last weekend had seven unique decks in the Top 8, compared to some events before rotation where every top spot would be held by red aggro.

Guilds of Ravnica also brings a whole new limited format to explore. It’s welcomed because Core 2019 was widely maligned as a limited format, especially compared to Dominaria, which many consider the best ever. Ravnica block is loved, and in my opinion has made for really great limited formats during our last two visits. This one is still too new to judge; it sounds like plenty of people are enjoying it, myself included.

The Arrival of Arena

I was able to play some Guilds of Ravnica sealed deck on Magic Arena, which went into open beta two weeks ago. The floodgates have been opened. Magic Arena has taken over Twitch, where it has more streamers gaining more views than Magic Online.

It fills my Twitter feed, where there seems to be nothing but praise for the program. I had many complaints about Magic Arena during the Alpha test, but after having stepped away for months, I’ve come back to a polished program that has exceeded my expectations to offer a quality Magic gameplay experience.

Players around the world now have unprecedented access to the game because of Magic Arena. It’s generally accepted that the 2009 release of Magic: Duels of the Planeswalkers brought Magic to a wider audience, playing a pivotal role in the massive expansion that began shortly after and during the next few years. Magic being brought right to gaming consoles alongside Halo and Grand Theft Auto exposed it to a new generation of players and helped elevated Magic further towards mainstream gaming culture. Magic Arena is poised to have that same effect, but on a much grander scale.

Computer gaming and e-sports have grown exponentially since Duels of the Planeswalkers was released nearly a decade ago. Digital games like Hearthstone have primed players for Magic Arena, which feels very similar if not nearly a complete replica in execution, from the gameplay down to the economy. It’s a proven model, and following it should lead to success.

A quick google search shows that Hearthstone claimed to have 70 million players early last year, so in theory the potential new player base for Arena is quite literally tens of millions of people. It currently being unavailable on phones means that number is certainly much less than 70 million, but still very significant.

Magic Is Magic By Any Name

New Arena players are, in the literal sense, Magic players, the same as any other. The more people who play Magic, the better. The more people who even know about it, the better, and the exposure Magic Arena will bring the game will do a lot to increase awareness. While the realm of many of the new players may be strictly online, rest assured that plenty of them will dig deeper into the rabbit hole and start collecting and playing paper Magic.

Magic Arena will spawn a whole new generation of drafters and Standard players, some of whom will start showing up at FNM. It will get people interested in other formats, like Modern, Legacy, or Commander.

I imagine there are people who have never even heard of Magic today but will be buying graded cards in 2019 and beyond. Even if these new players never spend a cent on cardboard and keep their money online, that means growth for Wizards and potentially bigger things for Magic. Even if that player never spends any money on Magic Arena and just grinds free-to-play, but also tells a friend about the game, it all adds up to a net positive.

I see Magic Arena doing a lot to promote Magic and usher it into the future. Magic Online has not performed well as an audience-friendly e-sports platform, which Magic needs if it hopes to truly thrive in the next decade and beyond. Magic Arena will help make that a reality, and as we are still in the beta test, I’m hopeful that the program and experience will only continue to improve.

Magic Arena will create a whole new generation of players, in addition to helping to further enfranchise current players. I also imagine it will help recapture lapsed players that no longer play but could use the program to rediscover the game.

The Paper Markets

There is an argument that the success of the purely online Magic Arena means bad things for the future of paper Magic. But it’s difficult for me to see increased popularity of Magic as anything but positive pressure on demand for paper cards.

In theory there’s a future where paper cards are no longer printed and organized play becomes completely digital, but it seems far too profitable to stop now. The recent deal that Wizards made with Amazon to sell directly only further solidifies this point. I imagine the best hedge against the end of paper Magic would be to invest in the most collectible cards, specifically graded cards, Alpha, Beta, etc., with prices not wholly determined by their playability.

How do you see Magic Arena affecting the future of Magic?

-Adam

Daily Stock Watch – Privileged Position

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the freaky Friday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! We've been talking about cards that have seen some financial gains because of new goods from Guilds of Ravnica all week so let's end it with a feature that doesn't rely on GRN to boost its stock. I'd like to talk about an enchantment from the original Ravnica set that has been slowly climbing again after peaking last month and eventually dipping a bit as the market stabilized. I know that this card is strong when it hits play and is pretty much a casual favorite among Commander groups.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Privileged Position

I've been playing competitive Commander (or better known as cEDH among active players) for quite a while now and I know what it's like to be at the opposing end of this card and you just want to get rid of your opponent's creatures or artifacts to be able to cope up. If you're playing a red or black-based deck, this card is almost a nightmare as it's almost moot to answer because you lack the supporting color to deal with enchantments. Just imagine playing a Balthor, the Defiled or Krenko, Mob Boss deck that has some spot removals to push through the enemy defense's during combat, but is left scratching their heads because everything became untouchable upon Privileged Position's entry.

I had to write about this card today because it has rose back to $26.49 after dropping just a couple of bucks down since it reached its all-time high of $29.22 last month. Commander cards don't actually buckle down amidst over supply issues if it's from an old set like Ravnica, so it might have caused some concern for those who are invested in this to move their copies around when it started going down. I'll admit that I'm annoyed by the strength of this card but I'm not one of those believers when it comes to its financial value (which is gradually increasing as the set matures and this card isn't getting reprinted) because I don't see it as a "win now" card. When you live in a world where two-card combos could end the games in an instant, I'd like to see a card of this value coming into play to close out games and not wait around to see if we could do something about our permanents before we pull off our trick. As much as I'm inclined to believe that it's the reason why this card is expensive, I haven't heard much of a deck that resorts to Privileged Position to win games. If you have some knowledge about where this is abused, please feel free to shout it out in the comments section below.

Commander Superstar Enchantments

You could easily add a lot of other enchantments that's doing very well financially because of Commander to this list but these are the ones that are usually dominating in multiplayer tables. Almost all of these cards provide very lopsided results to its owner when they hit play and I'm not sold on the idea that Privileged Position belongs to this class. I would be very glad to sell my copies at $25 because I don't see it going up any further, especially with its inclusion in the Guild Kit for GRN (the version of this card from that set is up for pre-order via StarCityGames for only $14.99) considering how much Doubling Season

At the moment, you could get copies of Privileged Position from Card Kingdom for $23.99, while multiple vendors have it via TCGPlayer for as low as $13.99 (damaged copies) up to $25.99 for near mint ones. StarCityGames is out of stock for the OG art, but they have the new ones coming in from the Guild Kit for the price I mentioned earlier. I'm just really looking forward to moving around copies of this card. I don't see any appeal for it today, and I'm quite sure that there won't be much still going forward if you ask me. Bias aside, this card is loved by many so you could still do some spec buying at $10 (I would only buy at this price) and see if you could save some copies. One lesson I learned in Commander finance is that no matter how bad you think a card is, it won't matter financially if the bigger crows loves it. Always go for the popular cards when speculating.

And that’s it for this week’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next week, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Colorless Matchup Guide: Burn and Infect

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Along with Affinity, Burn and Infect once made up the Holy Trinity of blitzing wins in Modern. Times have certainly changed. The Affinity we knew now relinquishes most of its shares to Hardened Scales; Infect's loss of Gitaxian Probe and inherent softness to Fatal Push put a serious dent in its former reign; Burn has more functional Goyfs to worry about than ever. But all three decks continue to exist, with the latter two apparently on the rise.

As far as the Colorless Matchup Guide goes, we've already explored beating Affinity in detail. This week deals with aggro-combo's other Older Gods, Burn and Infect. Both are critical-mass-style decks aiming to assemble a high volume of a certain kind of spell, and both are fine matchups for Colorless Eldrazi Stompy—given, of course, a practiced pilot.

For reference, here's my current list (unchanged since the last Matchup Guide):

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eternal Scourge
4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Matter Reshaper

Artifacts

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Scavenger Grounds
2 Wastes

Sideboard

4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Gut Shot
1 Gemstone Caverns

This has been my go-to build for a while, and I'm not counting on modifying it any time soon. Control decks have taken a light dip in popularity, and Bridgevine has settled out of the top tier, so respective additions of another Spyglass or Surgical now seem excessive. I think if the metagame requires Colorless to be doing something else, such as punishing creature swarm decks, it calls for a different Eldrazi deck altogether—perhaps even my TarmoDrazi build from last week! In an open field, though, or complete darkness, I would sleeve up the above.

Burn

Burn, by Collins Mullen (2nd, SCG Columbus Team Open)

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Boros Charm
4 Searing Blaze
2 Skullcrack

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
3 Arid Mesa
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
3 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Destructive Revelry
3 Satyr Firedancer
2 Path to Exile
2 Searing Blood
2 Exquisite Firecraft
1 Skullcrack
1 Rest in Peace

Game 1

I've heard chatter lately in the Eldrazi communities I frequent about Chalice of the Void not being so great anymore, a scenario that's led to the relative dip in performance of Eldrazi decks. I still contend that Chalice is great if backed up by enough pressure or dropped ahead of curve, both things Colorless Eldrazi Stompy is made to do. In any case, Burn is not one of the decks that can shrug off a turn-one Chalice.

Chalice should be slammed as quickly as possible against Burn—before removal; before creatures; before anything. It can be tempting to curve out naturally with a 3/3 blocker for Guide and then a turn-three Seer, but landing Chalice first outweighs any other plans we might have in game 1, even if we're under pressure. After taking some damage, we can stabilize with Chalice on board and kill opponents before they draw enough two-drops to finish the job.

A key skill to master, and one that comes with many reps, is reading the opponent's hand based on their fetching and sequencing. The information gleaned helps Colorless make crucial decisions that line up optimally against Burn's draw. Some examples:

  • If opponents fetch-shock turn one, they may not have any other lands; otherwise, they'd get a Mountain.
  • If they cast Lava Spike, they don't have one-drop creatures or Rift Bolt, and probably have one or more of Searing Blaze, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Boros Charm—high-impact cards that compensate for not setting up an attacker.

One common decision that benefits from this sort of close-reading is whether to cast Scourge or Reshaper first. Scourge walls Goblin Guide, while Reshaper just trades with it. But Scourge is also removed by literally anything, including Searing Blaze without landfall. As we're unlikely to have tons of mana game 1, let alone enough to cast all our spells,, exiling Scourge with its ability is similar for Burn to just killing it. We'd much rather Reshaper die to a spell, since in doing so it often nets us tempo by casting a creature or playing a land off the top of our library.

In the event that we know our opponent's on Burn, copies of Dismember and Smuggler's Copter are functional mulligans in an opener. We almost never want to see or cast these cards in a game against Burn. As they're still in our deck for game 1, the best we can do is ship the hand for something else or keep our otherwise great hand and simply take the minus on the chin.

Sideboarding

-2 Smuggler's Copter
-4 Dismember

+3 Ratchet Bomb
+2 Spatial Contortion
+1 Gemstone Caverns (play and draw)

Burn is too aggressive a deck for us to ever want to crew Smuggler's Copter. In this kind of matchup, we aim to deploy a new threat as a blocker each turn while attacking with the rest of our squad. The pseudo-haste from Copter works against that plan.

While a turn-one Dismember on Goblin Guide or Monastery Swiftspear can pay off in game 1, the card's still a no-brainer cut during sideboarding. Creature removal is valuable in this matchup—just not when it Boros Charms us! On that note, Spatial Contortion fills Dismember's shoes admirably.

Ratchet Bomb was once a card I once hated siding in against Burn, but had to for lack of something else to replace Copter and Dismember. That was before Ensnaring Bridge took off as a common tech for Burn decks against large creatures. We cannot beat a resolved Bridge except in niche scenarios, such as when opponents do have cards in hand and are at a low enough life total for manlands to tie things up. Even with Chalices on 1 and 2, Burn can take the game with Rift Bolt, Exquisite Firecraft, and Risk Factor should they have enough time to draw those cards. Bomb teams up with Thought-Knot Seer to prevent Burn opponents from cheesing wins. It also has the pleasant upside of killing a creature or two sometimes.

Gemstone Caverns comes in instead of the fourth Bomb for a couple of reasons. For one, with 3 Bomb in the deck, we're likely to see one should Burn have Ensnaring Bridge. Any copy beyond the first tends to be superfluous, especially since there's no guarantee Burn draws Bridge even if they do run it. The other reason is as intuitive as boarding out Dismember: we need to make our land drops against aggressive decks. If we're not deploying threats and disruption throughout the game, Burn will beat us, no matter how fast the Chalice comes down.

Post-Board

Burn can have a few different strategies after siding. For starters, the deck's colors can vary. Builds with green have a potent answer to Chalice of the Void in Destructive Revelry. If opponents search Stomping Ground in their first two land drops, they probably have Revelry in hand, and are also probably light on lands—otherwise, they'd wait to reveal the green until later. By fetching it fast, they're opening themselves up to Ghost Quarter cutting them off the color for good, although most Burn pilots don't recognize that we have access to this play.

When opponents telegraph a Revelry hand (anemic starts also signal the instant), Quartering the green or playing Thought-Knot Seer first are acceptable detours en route to resolving Chalice. Another solution is to skip 1 and resolve the first Chalice on 2. This play is a bit riskier, since Chalice on 2 also counters Ratchet Bomb, meaning we'll have no way to remove Ensnaring Bridge. It also counters Eldrazi Mimic and Spatial Contortion. Nonetheless, Chalice on 2 tends to hurt Burn more than it does us, and to cripple Burn more after siding than a Chalice on 1 would. A third anti-Revelry measure is to not cast Chalice until Seer can tear it from the hand. This line requires us to have other plays, such as casting creatures, and works best with a Spirit Guide.

Ensnaring Bridge isn't a card all Burn decks run (the one above doesn't, for example), but it's the archetype's single best card against us. Generally speaking, either we remove Bridge or we die. Seer should be saved until the turn before Burn will have three mana to cast a Bridge, and then slammed to clear the coast. We almost always choose Bridge over other targets.

Other tricks Burn can have up its sleeve include Searing Blood, which hassles Scourge and Mimic but thankfully isn't a very popular side-in from Burn players. Same deal with Grim Lavamancer. There's also Deflecting Palm, which makes Smasher scary for everyone and incentivizes us to peek with Seer before committing to big attacks into untapped Inspiring Vantages. Path to Exile is a card we're sure to see in game 2, but we can use it to our advantage by leading with Reshaper and Seer and making the most out of the extra land. Finally, Burn with Risk Factor has experienced minor success online.

Some more notes on Burn:

  • Throwing Quarter at white sources can force Burn to fetch-shock and take extra damage to cast their white spells. Quarter should be paced so that Burn players can't make use of the extra mana from Mountain entering untapped, i.e. on our turn after they've telegraphed no Lightning Bolts
  • Burn usually plays 3 Mountain
  • Exquisite Firecraft can target and kill Thought-Knot Seer

Takeaways

On paper, our Burn matchup looks amazing. We've got a functional Goyf with Inquisition of Kozilek attached in Seer, plenty of Wild Nacatl-size bodies between Reshaper and Scourge, Smasher and manlands to close out the game, and full sets of Chalice of the Void and Simian Spirit Guide to blank enemy hands before opponents even make one land drop. But the matchup can be close in practice, especially against the rare Burn pilot who boards correctly. Stacks of Paths, Searing spells, and Bridges can line up to complicate our victory.

Infect

Infect, by Bradley Tinney (4th, GP Detroit)

Creatures

4 Glistener Elf
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Blighted Agent
2 Ichorclaw Myr

Instants

4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Blossoming Defense
4 Might of Old Krosa
4 Vines of Vastwood
3 Groundswell
3 Become Immense
1 Spell Pierce
1 Dismember

Sorceries

1 Distortion Strike

Enchantments

2 Rancor

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
1 Verdant Catacombs
2 Windswept Heath
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Forest
2 Breeding Pool
2 Pendelhaven
4 Inkmoth Nexus

Sideboard

1 Spell Pierce
1 Dismember
2 Invisible Stalker
2 Nature's Claim
1 Gut Shot
1 Shapers' Sanctuary
1 Dispel
1 Pithing Needle
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Spellskite
2 Torpor Orb
1 Wild Defiance

Game 1

As against Burn, our first order of business vs. Infect is resolving Chalice of the Void. Chalice prevents Infect from casting most of its pump spells, forcing it to wait until later to kill us with Become Immense. It also blanks some of their creatures. We have some time early on to stick the artifact, as taking a few hits from Glistener Elf or Blighted Agent as we sculpt our hand and board isn't so scary when we can rule out +4/+4 shenanigans. Infect will reliably kill through Chalice later in the game, though, making the card more of a temporary solution than the actual gameplan it is against Burn.

Next up is blocking. Even without Chalice in play, throwing creatures in front of Glistener Elves is something Colorless mustn't hesitate to do. Our credo: do not take infect damage. We're creature-heavy enough to be able to block almost every turn, forcing opponents to deal us 10 in one fell swoop. And when they're casting their pump spells each turn anyway, so Elf doesn't just die in combat to our 3/3, dealing 10 in a single attack becomes challenging.

The best early blocker is of course Matter Reshaper, who then flips into more blockers, ramps us into our top end, or, on a good day, draws Dismember. The best late-game blockers are manlands, especially Blinkmoth Nexus, which can block its cousin.

Although not all lists run it, Rancor lines up okay against this strategy. The enchantment allows Infect to trade away creatures instead of pump spells, or continue using pump spells to save its creatures, but push damage through regardless. A timely removal spell can blow out Rancor plays, which conveniently become predictable after we see the card once.

An especially strong Infect player will look to resolve Rancor and then hang back from attacking, stockpiling enough pump spells and protection to go for game later (even through a Chalice). We can only draw so many Dismembers to interact with this play cleanly. Our most reliable counter is to develop a board of our own and be ready to block enough that we don't die. Should opponents wait long enough, we can turn all those creatures sideways and one-shot them ourselves.

With no Chalice, we can still take over game 1 with Seer and Smasher. Our smaller creatures and manlands excel on the blocking front. With a Chalice, game 1 often ends very quickly.

That being said, between Viridian Corrupter and Dissenter's Deliverance, Infect actually has a number of mainboard ways to remove Chalice of the Void. Granted, that number is small (about two copies per deck), and a turn-one Chalice will slow the deck to a crawl regardless. But it's not utterly cold to the artifact, especially if the deck manages to plant an infecter or two first.

Sideboarding

-3 Matter Reshaper
-4 Reality Smasher
-2 Smuggler's Copter
-1 Wastes (on the draw)

+4 Ratchet Bomb
+1 Sorcerous Spyglass
+2 Spatial Contortion
+2 Gut Shot
+1 Gemstone Caverns (on the draw)

This plan swaps our top end for the full removal package, essentially turning us into a Delver deck. Spyglass addresses Inkmoth Nexus, while Bomb covers bases ranging from multiple threats to Shapers' Sanctuary to Invisible Stalker. Copter runs into the same issues here as it does against Burn. Gut Shot is our best card, and we're sort of sad to see Matter Reshaper go (after all, it does block), but need the space.

Post-Board

They don't always run it, but Infect's scariest card is Wild Defiance. Defiance turns off most of our removal spells and allows Infect to deal 10 in one attack much more easily, and while the deck is more strapped for cards. Fortunately, our board plan shifts Colorless dramatically.

Gone are Reality Smasher, and Matter Reshaper to block and ramp us into it. Scourge, despite phasing out at the mere sight of a Mutagenic Growth, sticks around for the reason that we can aggressively Powder into removal-heavy hands and still have proactive plays to make. Since we're aspiring to a medium-length game, we'll have enough mana to recast Scourge while holding up blocks and casting removal.

Infect usually has more answers to Chalice after siding, but cannot keep up with our removal. Since all their threats pretty much die on sight, we're in no real rush to kill Infect, so our 3/3s get the job done. Shapers' Sanctuary helps them somewhat on this front, but does nothing in the face of Chalice or Bomb, making it unreliable.

Takeaways

Infect is one of our better matchups, but we do have to watch out for Blossoming Defense. I think this is Infect's best pump spell against Colorless, especially after siding, because of how good it is at blowing out removal wars. An interesting quirk of Spatial Contortion is that it increases the target's power, so casting the instant on an opponent's turn can seal our own fate. To avoid this and other embarrassing scenarios, it's best to remove creatures on our turn with spells and on Infect's turn with creatures by casting removal in our main phase and blocking when possible.

Fast, But Not That Fast

There you have it: two grizzled aggro-combo veterans all ready to be pulverized by spaghetti monsters. Does your experience against Burn or Infect on Colorless differ from mine? Do you have anything to add? Which decks would you like to see next in this series? Let me know below.

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #14

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Guilds of Ravnica jump-started the new metagame this past weekend as we saw a lot of cool stuff going on at the SCG Columbus Open. Both before and during this event, I did a lot of buying—probably more than any other time in my Magic career. So this article will have a heavy focus on my recent buys.

Moreover, I’m diving into these purchases to stay true to the premise of this article series:

  • Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  • Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Recent Buys

Maximize Velocity - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Maximize Velocity

Purchased Price
$0.25 & $0.35

This might seem like a Standard-only card, but it has quite a few things going for it. It’s a one-mana spell with a little bit of additional value via jump-start. Red decks can often flood out with lands or cards that might end up a bit too situational; thus, this card gives the deck some flexibility since you can discard those cards. And this card could also work pretty nicely with Runaway Steam-Kin, which had a pretty good showing at the SCG Columbus Open.

I don’t know yet if Runaway Steam-Kin will make bigger waves in Modern outside of the Turn One Boom or 8-Whack decks. But Maximize Velocity could also see play alongside Steam-Kin there too. Or it could potentially see play in some other type of deck altogether. The price was right so I bought 16 copies.

Viashino Pyromancer - Core 2019 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Viashino Pyromancer

Purchased Price
$1.49

This is also a Standard-only card right now, so I’d be cautious with this one too. However, this is a Wizard. So even though it might be a long-shot, it could start popping up in the UR Wizards list in Modern. It also sees play in Pauper, so you can’t go too wrong at that price.

Goblin Chainwhirler - Guilds of Ravnica (Prerelease Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Chainwhirler

Purchased Price
$8.99

This card just hasn’t gone away in Standard. And it’s starting to rear its Goblin head in Modern and even Legacy. This card will just keep getting better as Wizards keeps printing powerful and useful Goblins like Goblin Cratermaker.

Here’s a twist by Morbid28 on the Skred Dragons deck mentioned in article #3.

Modern Red by Morbid28

Creatures

2 Bloodrage Brawler
4 Flamewake Phoenix
2 Glorybringer
1 Hazoret the Fervent
4 Hollow One
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Squee, Goblin Nabob
1 Stormbreath Dragon
4 Street Wraith

Non-Creature Spells

1 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Faithless Looting
3 Blood Moon
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
3 Sarkhan, Fireblood

Lands

3 Gemstone Caverns
17 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Anger of the Gods
1 Boil
2 Damping Sphere
2 Goblin Chainwhirler
1 Lightning Axe
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Relic of Progenitus
2 Shattering Spree
1 Skullcrack

Modern Goblins by Albertus Law

Creatures

4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Fanatical Firebrand
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
1 Mogg Fanatic
4 Reckless Bushwhacker

Non-Creature Spells

1 Smuggler's Copter
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Devastating Summons
3 Goblin Grenade
2 The Flame of Keld

Lands

15 Mountain
4 Ramunap Ruins

Sideboard

2 Aethersphere Harvester
2 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
2 Goblin Chainwhirler
3 Searing Blood
1 Shattering Spree
2 Smash to Smithereens
1 Smuggler's Copter

Legacy Goblins by Guilherme Figueira

Creatures

3 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Goblin Chainwhirler
1 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Matron
2 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Goblin Trashmaster
3 Goblin Warchief
3 Mogg War Marshal
2 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Skirk Prospector
1 Stingscourger

Non-Creature Spells

2 Tarfire
4 Aether Vial

Lands

3 Gemstone Caverns
17 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Cavern of Souls
1 Karakas
11 Mountain
3 Rishadan Port
4 Wasteland

Since there’s just a smattering of Goblin Chainwhirler in Modern and Legacy, I think it’s better to pick up foil copies over non-foil ones, especially because they’re not that much more expensive.

Although these decks are more fringe-playable than anything right now, it’s still important to keep an eye on them. People may start to innovate by slotting Guilds of Ravnica cards like Runaway Steam-Kin into a Goblins deck like Albertus Law’s, to transform it into an updated 8-Whack. Take a look at Corbin Hosler’s list from TCGplayer for example.

Modern 8-Whack by Corbin Hosler

Creatures

4 Burning-Tree Emissary
3 Fanatical Firebrand
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
3 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

2 Devastating Summons
3 Goblin Grenade
4 Lightning Bolt
2 The Flame of Keld

Lands

15 Mountain
4 Ramunap Ruins

Sideboard

2 Alpine Moon
3 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
2 Risk Factor
4 Searing Blood
2 Shattering Spree

Shock - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shock

Purchased Price
EX: $6.39
VG: $5.59

Here’s yet another Standard card—sorry about that. But as I’ve said multiple times in previous articles, a good number of playable promos are pretty low-risk. Especially ones like this with only one foil printing of the original artwork in the original card border.

But the real reason this is low-risk is because of how many times it’s been printed in a Core set. It sure doesn’t look like Wizards is afraid to keep printing this card.

Also, this sees play in Premodern. But I wouldn’t count on any spikes from that format. It’s just a cool printing of the card that can be played in a cool format that revolves around a lot of Magic nostalgia.

If you want to go even further down the "cool" route, you might want to pick up the last four copies of the rare 7th Edition foils from Card Kingdom. I would’ve gotten these instead if I paid a little more attention to all the different foil printings.

Choke - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations

There was an error retrieving a chart for Choke

Purchased Price
$49.99

I mentioned this as a Hold in article #12 with a target price under $40. But the reason I got a couple of these at $50 was because I used my store credit from the cards I sold to Star City Games from the order I featured in article #13.

Mutavault - Grand Prix Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mutavault

Purchased Price
$11.99

This was another Hold I mentioned in article #12, so I put my money where my mouth was. I also followed my own advice by selling my non-foil Magic 2014 playset to get a set of these.

Thought Erasure - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought Erasure

Purchased Price
$4

I placed this on the Watch List in article #9. When I found a playset on eBay for $1 more than my original target price, I didn’t hesitate and just got them. As I mentioned in the article, this could see play alongside Force of Will, which Lejay has done with OmniTell.

And it will probably be just a matter of time before we see this start to pop up in Modern. It plays well with Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Search for Azcanta, owing to its two-mana casting cost and the surveil mechanic.

Legacy OmniTell by Lejay

Creatures

2 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
3 Baleful Strix

Non-Creature Spells

1 Intuition
3 Force of Will
4 Cunning Wish
4 Brainstorm
1 Thought Erasure
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Show and Tell
4 Omniscience

Lands

2 Swamp
2 Underground Sea
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Scalding Tarn
4 Polluted Delta
6 Island

Sideboard

3 Surgical Extraction
1 Spell Pierce
1 Skeletal Scrying
1 Release the Ants
1 Noxious Revival
1 Murderous Cut
1 Mindblade Render
1 Firemind's Foresight
1 Eladamri's Call
1 Echoing Decay
1 Cryptic Command
1 Force of Will
1 Baleful Strix

Risk Factor - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risk Factor

Purchased Price
$10

$10 is a bit steep for this, but I might play it in Standard. And as you probably know by now, this article series is all about helping you get the best value when you buy and sell cards you need for tournaments.

We’ve seen Char and Browbeat before. But what makes this different? Two things. It’s an instant compared to Browbeat. But more importantly, the jump-start mechanic makes this card much more playable than either card, even though it can’t target creatures like Char. The card helps with variance in flooding out on land or turning bad topdecks into something a bit more useful.

For the most part, this is a Standard card. But it could also make its way into some Modern decks in the near future as discarding cards with flashback and/or combined with delve cards make Risk Factor a bit more appealing.

Chromium, the Mutable - Core Set 2019 (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromium, the Mutable

Purchased Price
$11

This is a seven-mana 7/7 with four very powerful abilities, making it a highly viable finisher for blue decks. Not only did we see this in Jonathan Rosum’s Top 8 Esper Control deck at the SCG Columbus Open, but we also saw Jeremy Dezani run two of these in the sideboard of his Modern UW Control deck that he took to a 16th place finish at Grand Prix Prague.

Standard Esper Control by Jonathan Rosum

Creatures

1 Chromium, the Mutable

Non-Creature Spells

1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Essence Scatter
3 Vraska's Contempt
3 Cast Down
3 Moment of Craving
3 Syncopate
4 Chemister's Insight
4 Sinister Sabotage
3 Ritual of Soot
2 Search for Azcanta
4 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Lands

1 Plains
2 Field of Ruin
4 Isolated Chapel
4 Watery Grave
4 Swamp
4 Drowned Catacomb
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Island

Sideboard

3 Duress
1 Profane Procession
2 Vona, Butcher of Magan
1 Negate
1 Moment of Craving
2 Invoke the Divine
2 Fungal Infection
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 The Eldest Reborn

Modern UW Control by Jeremy Dezani

Creatures

2 Vendilion Clique
2 Snapcaster Mage

Non-Creature Spells

2 Logic Knot
2 Negate
3 Opt
3 Cryptic Command
4 Path to Exile
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Ancestral Vision
1 Oust
2 Serum Visions
4 Terminus
1 Detention Sphere
2 Search for Azcanta
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Lands

1 Swamp
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Field of Ruin
6 Island

Sideboard

2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Stony Silence
3 Rest in Peace
1 Porphyry Nodes
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Dispel
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Damping Sphere
2 Chromium, the Mutable
1 Negate

If foils ever drop below $10, I doubt they’ll stay there for very long. And supply has already passed its peak point, so I think now is the time to pick these up if you need them.

Kird Ape - FNM Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kird Ape

Purchased Price
$4.05

Pelt Collector’s spike has already happened, and so has Vexing Devil’s. But I think Kird Ape has some growth potential again—particular the FNM printing, because it’s the only foil version of the original artwork.

If you haven’t seen the updated Modern Zoo deck, take a look at Bringerofrain75’s list.

Modern Zoo by Bringerofrain75

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Experiment One
4 Goblin Guide
4 Kird Ape
4 Pelt Collector
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Vexing Devil

Non-Creature Spells

4 Atarka's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Devastating Summons

Lands

1 Temple Garden
1 Copperline Gorge
1 Forest
1 Mountain
2 Stomping Ground
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Windswept Heath
4 Arid Mesa
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Stony Silence
1 Rest in Peace
1 Remorseful Cleric
2 Path to Exile
1 Kataki, War's Wage
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Forked Bolt
3 Destructive Revelry
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Alpine Moon

Another card to keep on your radar when thinking about similar lists to this one is Narnam Renegade. It works well with Burning-Tree Emissary, Vexing Devil, and the fetchlands. It also just rotated out of Standard, so now is a good time to pick up $1-2 foils if you can find them.

Hissing Quagmire - Oath of the Gatewatch (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hissing Quagmire

Purchased Price
$4.99

Assassin's Trophy strikes again? Yes. Take a look at Jeff Hoogland’s 13th place finish at the SCG Columbus Open.

Modern Golgari Midrange by Jeff Hoogland

Creatures

2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Tireless Tracker

Non-Creature Spells

1 Abrupt Decay
4 Fatal Push
4 Assassin's Trophy
2 Collective Brutality
3 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Liliana of the Veil

Lands

2 Overgrown Tomb
2 Treetop Village
2 Forest
3 Field of Ruin
3 Hissing Quagmire
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Verdant Catacombs
5 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Languish
2 Duress
1 Collective Brutality
2 Nissa, Vital Force
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Dismember
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Damping Sphere

This has essentially hit its all-time low, and now is the time to buy as it begins its slow but steady climb.

Arclight Phoenix - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arclight Phoenix

Purchased Price
$7.99

I might want to play this card in Standard, and it looked like a Standard-only card when I decided to buy it. But then I came across this Modern list by Archangelic76's on Magic Online.

Modern Mono-Red by Archangelic76

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Runaway Steam-Kin

Non-Creature Spells

4 Faithless Looting
2 Insult // Injury
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Pyretic Ritual
3 Risk Factor

Lands

19 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Risk Factor
2 Abrade
3 Anger of the Gods
3 Blood Moon
3 Shrine of Burning Rage
3 Surgical Extraction

I'm not sure how viable this list is yet for the longer term; we'll just have to monitor it going forward. But I'd also like to point out that Runaway Steam-Kin also pops up in this list. So we're definitely already starting to see people get pretty creative with that card outside of Standard.

Folds

Gemstone Caverns - Time Spiral (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gemstone Caverns

Target Sell Prices
Non-Foil: $20
Foil: $80

As I was doing research on Goblin Chainwhirler and saw it in Guilherme Figueira’s Goblins list above, I stumbled upon this card’s chart. It’s not looking too good for the only printing of this card. If you have these and aren’t using them, I’d dump them now. You can get back in when Wizards reprints them in some Masters or supplemental set in the future.

History of Benalia - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for History of Benalia

Target Sell Prices
Non-Foil: $20
Foil: $30

Eric Shoopman just won the SCG Columbus Open with this. Sell into the hype now! A friend of mine who plays more casually than competitively told me he wish he bought this before the spike. And I told him to just wait till it rotates out of Standard late next year, and pick up a foil if he still wants it then. This is probably the worst time to buy if you don’t need the card.

Standard Selesnya Tokens by Eric Shoopman

Creatures

2 District Guide
4 Venerated Loxodon
4 Emmara, Soul of the Accord
2 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
2 Trostani Discordant

Non-Creature Spells

4 Conclave Tribunal
4 History of Benalia
4 March of the Multitudes
4 Legion's Landing
4 Flower
4 Saproling Migration

Lands

4 Forest
9 Plains
1 Arch of Orazca
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden

Sideboard

1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Shield Mare
1 Tendershoot Dryad
2 Seal Away
2 Settle the Wreckage
1 The Immortal Sun
3 Lyra Dawnbringer
2 Vivien Reid
1 Cleansing Nova

Office Hours

I’ll be co-hosting Quiet Speculation’s Office Hours again. This will be the second time. You can catch the audio of the inaugural session with Sigmund Ausfresser and me here in case you missed it. Christopher Martin will be joining me for the second session. It’s tentatively set for Thursday, October 25 at 8pm Central, so mark your calendars and join us in the Discord channel.

Public Spreadsheet

There were a lot of Recent Buys discussed this week. And I didn’t even list some of them. But you can find all of them in the Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em - Public MTG Finance Spreadsheet. Don’t forget to bookmark it! I update it on the fly, so you can see what’s going on as the market moves and before articles about certain cards are published.

Summary

Recent Buys

  • Maximize Velocity - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)
  • Viashino Pyromancer - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Goblin Chainwhirler - Dominaria (Foil)
  • Shock - FNM Promos
  • Choke - Masterpiece Series: Amonkhet Invocations
  • Mutavault - Grand Prix Promos
  • Thought Erasure - FNM Promos
  • Risk Factor - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)
  • Chromium, the Mutable - Core Set 2019 (Foil)
  • Kird Ape - FNM Promos
  • Hissing Quagmire - Oath of the Gatewatch (Foil)
  • Arclight Phoenix - Guilds of Ravnica (Foil)

Folds

  • Gemstone Caverns - Time Spiral (Non-Foil & Foil)
  • History of Benalia - Dominaria (Non-Foil & Foil)

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

Daily Stock Watch – Necrotic Ooze

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I'm quite sure that the most recent banned and restricted announcement was a clear indication that Modern is in a healthy state, though I'm not sure if this most recent discovery could shift the balance in the format's power. It could easily be a hype call or there must be some busted way to make the multiple combos work in the deck featuring our budding Modern superstar.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Necrotic Ooze

The jump to $11.66 was astounding to say at the very least, and all but certainly because of the free content that Ben Friedman posted via StarCityGames a few days back. Just to have an idea of how the deck looks like, here's the list that Bryan Gottlieb initially came up with:

Abzan Ooze

Creatures

1 Grim Poppet
1 Walking Ballista
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Devoted Druid
2 Doom Whisperer
3 Duskwatch Recruiter
1 Fauna Shaman
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Morselhoarder
3 Necrotic Ooze
3 Noble Hierarch
1 Viscera Seer
4 Vizier of Remedies

Other Spells

4 Chord of Calling
3 Grisly Salvage
3 Eldritch Evolution

Lands

3 Forest
1 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Gavony Township
1 Godless Shrine
1 Horizon Canopy
3 Overgrown Tomb
2 Temple Garden
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Fairgrounds Warden
3 Obstinate Baloth
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Wickerbough Elder
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
3 Assassin's Trophy
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Thoughtseize

It's just like playing with Counters Company except for the fact that you could actually win the game by turn three if all the pieces of the puzzle fit. Another card from Guilds of Ravnica is the reason for this suddenly exploitable combo in the form of Doom Whisperer and its very strong ability. By burying all the cards you need in the graveyard with the help of surveil, you grant the ooze enormous power to be every creature that it wants to be without having the actual cards in play. This allows you to combo off with the classic Vizier of Remedies + Devoted Druid + Walking Ballista with the help of Morselhoarder, which prior to this writing looked every bit unplayable because of its high casting cost.

How good can Necrotic Ooze actually be? It's hard to gauge at the moment, considering you have a plethora of other graveyard-dependent decks out there (Bridgevine, Hollow One, and the resurgent Dredge) that would easily attract more hosers from top tier decks (Grafdigger's Cage, Leyline of the Void, Rest in Peace). However, the easiest way to beat this deck is in the form of a one mana artifact called Pithing Needle which suffice to say, could buy you some time from dying to an early Necrotic Ooze. You could still lose via beatdown but I'm quite sure that's a regular problem that every other Modern deck would be willing to deal with.

The Ooze Gang

There would be a couple of Modern tournaments over the weekend and we shouldn't be surprised if we see this bunch in action and trying to steal games from unsuspecting opponents. I do think though that there's a better list out there that some pros might have formulated, otherwise the price spike for the Necrotic Ooze can't be solely blamed on the free article that not even everyone have read so far. The card has always been very good on its own and it's no secret to Duel Commander players how nasty it could get if left unscathed by the turn it comes down. There will be tons of answer for it in the slower Modern format but there's no mistaking that this card is a real threat to the balance of power if a list could be perfected. I don't mind losing a few dollars on a wedge that could pay off big time if it really gets over the board as the new premiere combo piece of Modern.

At the moment, StarCityGames and Card Kingdom if out of stock of Necrotic Ooze while there are still multiple vendors via TCGPlayer that's selling it for as low as $6.40. I would be suggest that you clean up those that are still below $8 and let's see where this could get us. The card will still have casual appeal if this hype doesn't pan out that well so just look at the upside of having it break the Modern scene and reach $20 range if it's for real. It would also be worth taking a gamble on the foil copies. We could be in for a big payday or a minor setback on this one.

And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: Not All Price Drops Are Created Equal

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Welcome back, readers!

Let's say you drop two balls of different masses from the same height in a vacuum. Newton's Second Law of Motion states that force equals mass times acceleration. The end result is that both balls will land at the exact same time because the gravitational acceleration is independent of the mass of the object.

Fun fact, you might say, but what does this have to do with Magic: The Gathering finance? Well, unlike said ball-dropping experiment, all card price drops due to reprint are not the same.

Tracking Recent Reprints

To get an idea of this, let's look at some recent reprints. We'll look at how they affected the original card's price and where the reprint price is at now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Imperial Recruiter

You can buy an original Portal: Three Kingdoms version of Imperial Recruiter for around $138. Prior to being spoiled in Masters 25, this card was sitting well around $350, which equates to a 60% drop in value. Masters 25 versions can be purchased for around $25-$26 dollars.

Now we don't typically see this big of a drop on the original versions of cards. However, the key factor to remember with Imperial Recruiter is that Portal: Three Kingdoms was a very underprinted set (limited to only a few countries), meaning it was extremely rare. Any new supply was likely to reduce its value by a considerable amount, which is what we saw.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wurmcoil Engine

We saw Wurmcoil Engine reprinted in the Commander 2014 product. It did see a dip after that reprinting down to around $13.50, but has since recovered back to the pre-reprint price (with the lowest copies being around $18.50).

There are several differences between Recruiter and Wurmcoil, though. Wurmcoil sees play in most of the Modern Tron variants, which are still powerful and popular. Meanwhile, Recruiter is predominantly a Legacy card, and even then it doesn't see a ton of play in the format (finding a home mostly in Imperial Painter decks).

Keep in mind that Wurmcoil was actually reprinted again in one of the Commander Anthology's (though that print run was likely very low), so its rebound is all the more impressive, but not unexpected given its utility in Modern.

Comparing these two cards, we know that format playability (as well as desirability of the format as a whole) can play a major role in how much of a hit a reprint will cause to a card's value. However, there are likely other additional factors (some obvious, some not as much).

The rarity of a reprint will likely play a major role in the price drop one would expect to see. The more common the rarity, the more the price is likely to drop, which makes perfect sense for any given print-run size. This is why many speculators here on QS tend to focus the most on mythics for new sets—there are a lot fewer of them compared to any given rare, so the price ceiling is obviously higher.

There is also the question of when it was last printed. As the player base has grown steadily, it makes logical sense that print runs have grown with it (though we can't know at what rate). Thus the more time that has passed since a card was printed, the more likely it is to be "rarer" than any given newly printed rare.

Astute readers might have noticed a trend. All of these mentioned have to due with scarcity, which as always goes back to good ol' supply and demand.

A Look at Guilds of Ravnica

Knowing this bit of knowledge can help us avoid overpaying on recently reprinted staples. The most important of these are the shocklands in Guilds of Ravnica.

We have already seen prices of the Return to Ravnica block shocks drop by around 20% on average since Guilds of Ravnica was announced.  However before RTR block shocks were reprinted, the original Ravnica shocks were all between $20-$40 (before the set name Return to Ravnica was announced). After the announcement they started to drop—at RTR's release most had dropped to under $20, after a few months most dipped as far down as $15-$18.

I bring this up because I expect the Guilds of Ravnica shocks to continue to drop as more of the set gets opened. We saw the average price of the shocks from Return to Ravnica block drop by 46% from their initial release prices.

Now, thanks to RTR block, the shock price ceiling was dropped considerably. So I don't expect as dramatic of a fall as the last go-around for Guilds of Ravnica. However, the fact that the initial prices for Guilds shocks are mostly between $6-$8 dollars means that we could easily see them drop to sub $5 if the set is opened in large numbers.

Shockland Initial Price Lowest Price Price Change Percentage Price Drop
Steam Vents $16.71 $6.88 $9.83 58.83%
Hallowed Fountain $16.89 $6.49 $10.40 61.57%
Watery Grave $14.22 $8.21 $6.01 42.26%
Breeding Pool $14.44 $8.00 $6.44 44.60%
Overgrown Tomb $16.93 $7.56 $9.37 55.35%
Godless Shrine $21.35 $8.06 $13.29 62.25%
Temple Garden $14.97 $8.38 $6.59 44.02%
Blood Crypt $13.93 $7.01 $6.92 49.68%
Stomping Ground $14.80 $12.91 $1.89 12.77%
Sacred Foundry $14.53 $10.25 $4.28 29.46%
Average $7.50 46.08%

Knowing all this we should consider picking up the following shocks when they bottom out;

It's also important to pay attention to which set the reprint occurs in. We saw Gatecrash shocks maintain about a 20% premium over their Return to Ravnica brethren despite typically seeing less play in Modern. While RTR had lots of Standard and/or eternal staples in it, Gatecrash was far less impressive (and Dragon's Maze was abysmal). Less Gatecrash was opened, and conversely fewer Gatecrash shocks were added to the supply.

So we want to keep a careful eye on Ravnica Allegiance. If it proves to be less popular than Guilds of Ravnica, we will want to look more carefully at those shocks.

Total Distribution of Shocklands

Below is a chart of the current shockland distribution. In a three-block set I assigned a point value of 1, 2, or 3, with 3 being the most opened set, 2 being the second most opened, and 1 being the least opened. Not surprisingly they go in order of first set in the block to last set in the block (thanks in large part to draft formats).

Shockland RAV GPT DIS RTR GTC DGM Expedition GRN Total
Steam Vents 2 3 1 1 2 9
Hallowed Fountain 1 3 1 1 6
Watery Grave 3 2 1 1 2 9
Breeding Pool 1 2 1 1 5
Overgrown Tomb 3 3 1 1 2 10
Godless Shrine 2 2 1 1 6
Temple Garden 3 3 1 1 2 10
Blood Crypt 1 3 1 1 6
Stomping Ground 2 2 1 1 6
Sacred Foundry 3 2 1 1 2 9

This chart doesn't include Ravnica Allegiance. While we expect them to reprint the remaining shocks, as that information is still unknown at this time we will leave them off the list. Assuming the remaining shocks are reprinted in Ravnica Allegiance, and the set is equally popular to Guilds, each of those shocks would earn 2 more points.

Note that even in that case, four shocks will still have fewer overall points than the others (with Breeding Pool having the fewest of all).

This helps identify the shocks that will have the smallest supply, and thus—even not knowing the metagame—the most potential upside when it comes to speculation. Keep in mind that if Ravnica Allegiance is more popular than Guilds of Ravnica, we would likely need to add either 3 points to those shocks or subtract 1 point from all the Guilds of Ravnica shocks.

For some good comparison evidence of this system, we can look at the two highest-point shocks: Overgrown Tomb and Temple Garden.

These have consistently been the cheapest of the shocks (along with Blood Crypt), despite the fact that they see heavy play in Modern. According to the most-played Modern cards on MTG Goldfish, both Temple Garden (#31) and Overgrown Tomb (#38) outrank Breeding Pool (#45), Watery Grave (#49), and Godless Shrine, which are all more expensive.

This is especially telling because both shocks contain green, the most played color in Commander, which further increases demand.

  1. Breeding Pool
  2. Hallowed Fountain
  3. Blood Crypt
  4. Stomping Ground

Non-Shocks

The only non-shock reprint of note is Chromatic Lantern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromatic Lantern

I do like speculating on this card a good bit. While it was never a bulk rare by any means, it did sit in the $2.50 range for almost a full year while RTR was Standard-legal despite being an obvious Commander staple. We see the current Guilds of Ravnica version already sitting around this price (and it was just released) so I'll expect to see the price drop a bit more. I doubt it will drop below $1.50, but if it did I would pick up 20+ copies myself.

Conclusion

While it might seem like you'd want to start picking up shocklands from Guilds of Ravnica since they appear so cheap, there is a large possibility that they continue to trend downward and reach a sub $5 pricetag (possibly even $4 for Temple Garden).

Thanks to their ubiquity in Modern and Commander, there is definitely a price floor we can expect these not to break. I'd likely guess it to be around $3. However, the inverse is true as well—with yet another mass printing, the price ceiling has dropped considerably for shocklands. I'd put the maximum around $10 for any of them, unless the Magic playerbase grows dramatically (which would likely take a while).

We typically see prices of the newest set at their lowest 2-3 months after release, so I'd consider holding off any speculative Guilds of Ravnica reprint purchases until November/December.

The Best Value In: Legends

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New expansions come and go, but the cards are forever...

Set after set, expansions thrill us during spoiler season only to fade from memory years later when they rotate from Standard. Only a handful of top-tier playables remain to remind us of long past. By the time this article goes live, Guilds of Ravnica will be on the shelves, and the lustrous honeymoon will be over.

Some sets never seem to fade. In particular, the older Vintage sets tend to loom large in the imaginations of Magic players all around the world. Today, I'd like to focus on one such set, Legends, which is now nearly 25 years old!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcades Sabboth

Legends is the third Magic expansion, and it is truly a relic of an age come and gone. Back in 1994 when the set was released, there was no "spoiler season" or widespread internet hype train to formally introduce players and collectors to the new cards. Sets simply showed up on store shelves – and as was the case for the first Magic releases - they sold out immediately, as there was not supply to satisfy the rabid demand for new cards.

Today's article isn't a history lesson, rather, it is an exploration of one of Magic's most fascinating sets with the intent to great speculation targets in the modern her-and-now. In particular, Legends is a fantastic set to look for value for the following reasons:

  1. The set is gigantic. At 310 cards, there are a lot of great, obscure options to discuss. Arabian Nights and Antiquities are so small that it's very easy to target the few "good" cards. Legends is huge and full of weird cards, which makes it less obvious and thus easier to find 'sleepers.'
  2. The set is interesting and iconic. I would argue no set other than Alpha expanded the world of Magic more than Legends. The artwork is gorgeous and flavorful. It's a beautiful set to collect.
  3. The set is Reserve Listed. Obviously, the Reserved List is a big factor in Magic finance since it means certain cards cannot be reprinted – which makes them prime investment targets.

The first rule of my list is that I'm not going to include cards over $100.00. I'm a believer that if you are dropping $100.00 on a card, that it's an investment one way or another. Anything over $100 is likely Reserved List already, which makes it a reasonable investment. When it comes to expensive cards, they tend to find their level fairly quickly and then steadily tick up in price as time goes by.

I'm looking for cards that I beleive haven't found their level yet and thus could make significant gains in the near future. These are going to tend to be rares that are less than $100 NM.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cleanse

Cleanse is a fairly inexpensive for a Reserved List Legends rare. I actually like this pick so much that I went on eBay and bought a copy for myself as I'm writing this article. I noticed that I don't own any copies of this card and would like to add one to my Old School Battle Box.

I think exactly the thing I just described is what makes Cleanse a fantastic pick. It is playable in fringe scenarios of fringe formats. I know this card sees some play in the sideboard of Old School Mono White decks against Suicide Black. Those are two places that this Reserved List card can see play, which leads me to believe the $30 price tag is too low.

[card graph = "Disharmony" set = "Legends"]

Disharmony is another random "unplayable" Legends rares that is in fact much more playable than most people believe.

It's certainly a card that is playable in Old School as a sideboard card. It's a straight up two-for-one in many scenarios: steal an attacker, block with it, and trade. It is also a card that has found a place in my Danger Room and Old School Battle Box.

Note that the key thing I'm looking for in these examples is "price point." There are plenty of examples of other rares that are equally (and often less) playable going for a significantly higher price (often over $100). In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before these other fringe playable cards catch up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Firestorm Phoenix

I was really surprised to see this card still sitting at $25.00. As a point of reference, this card had that price tag back in 1996!

Clearly, there are better creatures available in Magic these days, perhaps even at the time when it was printed. Nonetheless, the card is really cool-looking and iconic. It's the first Phoenix and has a flavorful ability.

Another point I'd like to make that helps bring my "Phoenix Pick" into focus: I believe that collecting completely NM sets of older expansions is something that will become more popular as time goes on. With that in mind, I think that NM copies of basically any cheap Legends rare ($15-$30) is likely a great pickup with regard to making a profit down the line.

Firestorm Phoenix is a nice example of the type of card that could see a major price breakthrough if "set making" becomes a more mainstream thing in the future. Even if it doesn't, the card is interesting enough that I believe it will easily trend beyond it's low price point.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hell's Caretaker

Proof that cards don't need to be on the Reserved List to be great speculation targets from older sets. Hell's Caretaker has amazing artwork and is fringe playable in casual formats like Old School Battle Box, Old School, and even Commander. It certainly has some kitchen table flare, and did I mention the artwork and flavor are beyond compare?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lifeblood

Another amazing sleeper card that has "base value." It is really difficult to find English Legends rares that sell for less that $15.00. In fact, most of the ones that sell that low meet two qualifications: they have been reprinted and are basically unplayable.

Lifeblood is at the bottom basement price and it is neither of those things. It's never been reprinted and it is actually quite powerful, albeit as a sideboard-type card.

I actually ended up buying a copy of this card ($12.00 BIN EX+) on eBay to add to my Old School Battle Box!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reverberation

Another basement pick. It's a Reserved List rare that hasn't been reprinted and sees fringe Old School Magic play as a sideboard card against Burn / Fireball decks. I love the idea of picking up cheap but nice condition versions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for

Sol'kaaar is one of the overall "best creatures," pound for pound, in Old School Magic. He's beefy, has a ton of useful abilities, and is undercosted. He was reprinted in Chronicles, but people love the flare of an original copy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Storm World

Another card I was surprised to see at it's current price point of $40.00. It's an Enchant World which is interesting (since the rules around Enchant Worlds make them destroy others when played). The card itself is quite good. I'd play it in Cube or in a highlander format in a build-around-me deck. The card is really fun and unique, which makes me think its a good pick up at the current price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tuknir Deathlock

Not the most exciting card with regard to stats, but it is on the Reserved List and kind of fun and flavorful. I have this creature in my Old School Battle Box and he's a lot of fun. It's mostly a price issue where I don't understand how a Reserved List card that is more playable, more interesting, and more flavorful can be worth less than other rares that fall short on every comparable metric.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Willow Satyr

Willow Satyr is actually a great card that sees play in Commander. I've noticed, and this could just be something in my circle of friends, that a lot of people are interested in playing casual formats with older cards lately. Old School Commander, Old School Battle Box, Old School Constructed, etc.

With these formats seeing more play and with more people becoming interested, these fringe cards could really become staples down the line.


We've touched on the individual cards that I like the most right now. Some of these cards I literally purchased while writing the article! The key is that I believe there are certain criteria that make cards from this set more or less desirable as speculation targets. In particular, I think it makes sense to compare cards to find inconsistencies in terms of price. If a card is on the Reserved List and a straight up more playable card, why is it less? I believe the answer to that question is: "It won't be for too long."

Legends is a great set to look for sleeper cards if you are willing to go a little bit deep and use your imagination. Remember, these cards are nearly 25 years old, so they are difficult to acquire outside of the internet, but don't be surprised when they are much more difficult to acquire a year or two down the road.

 

MTGO News: Treasure Update

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Welcome back, folks. I hope y'all are enjoying drafting Guilds of Ravnica and trying out some of the new cards in Standard. People seem excited about this set, and both the Sealed and Draft leagues are at healthy participation levels. At one point during the pre-release there were nearly 12,000 people in the Sealed leagues, and already the competitive Draft league has 675 people in it. Limited participation levels on Magic Online were at their highest levels during the first month of Dominaria's release, and I'll be curious to see how Guilds of Ravnica participation does by comparison.

Lost in all the Guilds of Ravnica hype last week was an update to the treasure chests! Medwin has taken it upon herself to reverse the overall trend of declining treasure chest values, and since taking over the chests have not fallen below 2.20 tix. Treasure chests shot up to 2.60 tix after the update went live, and I'm here today to break down the important changes.

Courtesy of GoatBots

 

I. Core 19 Cards Added

As has become traditional, many Core 19 mythics and rares were added to the chests at the release of Guilds of Ravnica, rares at a 6 frequency and mythics at a 12. To provide a frame of reference, generally only a frequency of 18+ will pump enough copies into the market to create excessively burdensome downward pressure on a Standard staple, 12+ on a Modern or Pauper staple, 6+ on a Legacy staple, and 6+ on a Modern or Pauper playable. I tend not to invest in cards that exceed the stated thresholds so that I'm not fighting against the current.

A few things pop out.  First is that Bone Dragon and Chromium, the Mutable are the big winners in the mythic category. Cards with less demand than those two are having an additional infusion of supply, and this makes me happier about my Chromium speculation recommendation a month ago.  Second is that Crucible of Worlds and Scapeshift are going to continue to have supply pumped into the market, so I would steer clear of these cards and would sell any excess copies I have (I'm surprised these two were added to the chests despite the Core 19 reprinting. The opposite approach was employed with Masters 25 cards).

These three cards are the big winners in the rare category, as they are the most expensive rares that avoided inclusions in the treasure chests. Banefire and Cleansing Nova, in particular, are shaping up to have been among the best speculations of Core 19, as both have seen play in the opening week of Guilds of Ravnica Standard.

As fun as it may be to ruminate on the topic, I've grown to learn to avoid assuming that cards not included in the chests will not see Standard play and those included in the chests will see Standard play. These decisions seem to be made by looking at which cards are expensive and which cards are, like Graveyard Marshal or Tezzeret, Artifice Master, "objectively powerful" without reference to what Play Design or the Future Future League divines will see play in future Standard seasons.

II. Standard Changes

Apart from the addition of Core 19, Standard cards are not having their frequencies changed all that much. The main thing we see is the addition of some popular Rivals of Ixalan cards and the elimination of some Dominaria cards that don't see play.

I don't think there is too much to worry about here. I think that a 6 frequency for The Immortal Sun and Arch of Orazca will really limit their potential to increase in price going forward; I think that a 12 frequency for Teferi and Rekindling Phoenix will not prevent those cards from going up, although I think it will gradually lower the ceiling on both cards. I'd look to sell the Phoenix between 30 and 35 tix, and Teferi between 40 and 45 tix.

Standard now only has three cards with a frequency of 20 or higher, and those three are Carnage Tyrant, Vraska, Relic Seeker, and Vraska's Contempt.

I believe that these three cards should have had their curated frequencies reduced to 12 to put them in line with other Standard rares and mythics, and I hope that Medwin will make that change at the next Treasure Update. I certainly forgot that these three had such high frequencies, and I'm now looking to sell my copies at lower prices as a result. I'll likely sell my extra copies of Carnage Tyrant at 15 tix, Vraska's Contempt at 8 or 9 tix, and Vraska herself at 8 or 9 tix.

III. Eternal Changes

There are many changes to Eternal cards, too many to go over. Below are those that I think are the most significant. Sometimes, as in the case of Walking Ballista, the significance lies in what stays the same.

I usually find some speculation opportunities in the crop of major treasure updates, and today's is no exception. Spire of Industry, Bomat Courier, the fastlands, and Thorn of the Black Rose are all cards I'll be looking at more closely over the coming days. Dark Depths, with a new frequency of 0, might be my favorite of them all.

These three are the big losers. Custodi Squire, in particular, is going to get hammered. I'm very confused by the decision to increase the treasure frequency of the Moxen, as even a 3 frequency is high for Legacy and Vintage cards. I've long been vocal about Magic Online needing a Legacy League with the payout structure of Pauper and Friendly Standard/Modern Leagues to spur demand for Legacy cards. Walking Ballista now looks like a much worse spec than it did mere weeks ago as it will face significant downward pressure ad perpetuum. Hold onto your playset and sell the rest.

IV. Signing Off

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions, leave a comment down below or hit me up in the QS Discord and I'll be sure to get back to you. Next week I believe we're going to take a look at a topic I've been asked about a lot: What will happen to the price of the Guilds of Ravnica and Ravnica Alliance Shocklands? Stay tuned!

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