Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
The set release is nigh! With all of Ravnica Allegiance spoiled, speculation can end and brewing begin. I'm pleasantly surprised by all the potential Modern playables. This expansion might not go down in history like Khans of Tarkir, but I expect plenty of cards to see play, if only because they're too interesting not to brew with.
However, not all potential cards were designed equal. So far, I've covered some unique and potentially gamechanging cards as well as niche but powerful cards. This week is for cards that may offer something unique or powerful-seeming, but in the context of Modern, may not live up to that potential.
Repudiate // Replicate
I will be focusing on Repudiate // Replicate for this section, but I have the same arguments for Modern prospects Incubation // Incongruity and Revival // Revenge. These are spells with decent effects and very attractive flexibility defeated by context.
The individual effects and their associated mana costs aren't enough to warrant Modern play. The flexibility of being a split card with hybrid mana costs makes a promise to make up for the effect, but ultimately, it's not a promise that can be kept. Even with the additional benefit, no deck wants these cards.
Collective Comparison
Modal and split cards almost always cost more than the individual effects are worth in constructed formats. Their flexibility makes up for the cost because they free up spell slots for other spells. Individually, drawing a card worth two mana, giving creatures lifelink is barely playable, and returning attacking or blocking creatures to the top of the library is marginal. Put all these effects together and Azorius Charm is a defining card in Standard. The value of flexibility makes up for individual weakness in Standard.
The same can't be said in Modern, where mana cost and effect impact are king. Decks are more powerful and streamlined than in Standard, so there's less need for flexibility. Some modal/split spells see niche play, like Orzhov Charm for Death's Shadow or Dusk /// Dawn in Death and Taxes. However, I can only think of two that see regular play: Cryptic Command and Collective Brutality. The former sees play in control for its power, while the latter is more widespread and applicable to this discussion.
The reason for Brutality's ubiquity is that it's cheap. In the past, I've expressed dissatisfaction with Brutality because its individual effects are so small. What I had missed was how valuable having all three for no additional mana would be. Discarding cards to get those effects is the real power of Brutality, as it synergizes so well with all the graveyard strategies. Thus, the new split cards need to synergize well or be overwhelmingly powerful to make it in Modern.
Niche at Best
Repudiate has several problems indicative of the whole group. Its effect is worse than the already existing Trickbind, because it costs more colored mana and doesn't have split second. If a deck wanted the effect, it would already have it, and Trickbind doesn't see any play.
The only thing Repudiate has over Trickbind is that it could be played in mono-green decks. However, why would any deck want to? The effect is niche at best. Prior to Deathrite Shaman being printed Stifle saw a lot of Legacy play in RUG Delver to kill fetchlands. Since then, it hasn't been good enough for widespread play. Why would a deck play a worse version of an unplayable card?
The addition of the other half of the spell might be enough, however they're also not good enough. Any deck that wants to copy its own creatures would just play Phantasmal Image for cheaper and with Collective Company/Aether Vial synergy. If I want an inefficient but flexible Stifle, I could have Nimble Obstructionist.
They Don't Belong
Revival has the best chance of eventually making it to Modern as an incremental upgrade to Claim /// Fame. However, the odds aren't favorable. Reanimation in Modern is either interested in big creatures or Death's Shadow, and Revival can't do the former and is inefficient at the latter. In short, these effects already exist on better cards in Modern and every deck that wants them has them. There's no reason to pick something worse for niche benefits.
Electrodominance
If this is where Wizards' heads are, then Lavinia, Azorius Renegade starts to make sense for Standard. That aside, Electrodominance has had an electric effect on spoiler season. Everywhere I've looked, I've seen players trying to use its power to do broken things with uncosted suspend cards. I'm not so on board.
Here We Go Again
Forgive my cynicism, but I've been down this road before. Everyone was all over As Foretold after Amonket, but despite all the effort, it never went anywhere. That card had the added benefit of being persistent and scaling over the course of a game. If Modern can't use all the free mana from As Foretold, why would the one shot effect of Electrodominance make it?
The obvious answer is to play Ancestral Visions or Living Ends from hand rather than leaving them stranded. This is fair, but Modern already had that in the Aether Revolt expertise cycle. In particular Kari Zev's Expertise was supposed to save Living End decks from niche play and didn't.
The only advantage that Electrodominance has over anything that has come before is being cheaper. This isn't nothing, but what does it actually mean to Wheel of Fate, Restore Balance, or Ancestral Vision on turn two? How does a deck use these effects this early to win the game?
Strategic Problem
Ultimately, this is the problem all these not-cascade cards have struggled with. The card power and synergy are there, but they can't take full advantage of them. In order to get these effects, they play a lot of situational and/or redundant enabler cards. The various As Foretold decks either went the combo route with all the card draw, or prison with Greater Gargadon and Ensnaring Bridge, and it wasn't good enough because there was too much air, too much durdling, and it took too long. It didn't matter if they were capable of drawing all of the cards or sweeping the board a few times if they couldn't actually close the game. The problem lies on the strategic level of being overly complicated and inefficient decks, and not with a lack of enablers.
Solution Elusive
Since Electrodominance doesn't fix this fundamental strategic problem, it won't rescue Blue End or As Foretold prison from Modern's fringe. I'm not certain what card actually could. The solution to being somewhat clunky and being unable to take advantage of all the cards a deck can draw is typically more mana, but fast mana isn't a thing in Modern.
Arclight Speed Limit
The main appeal of As Foretold decks was the ability to draw many cards quickly, and Modern now lets you do that and play a good deck to boot. I'd argue that the actual gameplan of Arclight Phoenixdecks is to draw lots of cards. Having cantripped through their decks, players find a payoff or several and win thereafter. Players that want a mana sink that also draws more cards for Phoenix could do worse than Electrodominance in that role. It's not very good or efficient compared to everything else in the deck, but it could happen.
Gruul Spellbreaker
The next card is a creature with multiple problems. Gruul Spellbreaker looks so close to making it in Modern. Being a three mana 3/3 with haste or a 4/4 without is close to playable in the right deck or with the right abilities, as demonstrated by Mantis Rider and Loxodon Smiter. But therein lies the problem. Spellbreaker's other abilities aren't relevant enough in Modern, and even if they were, the right deck for it is the wrong deck for Modern.
Belonging Problem
The obvious place to start is to look for a place to live. On the basis of stats and cost, it seems natural to pair Spellbreaker with Bloodbraid Elf to have six power of hasty creatures attacking turn 4. This isn't the worst cascade. However, Jund would never play Spellbreaker. To get a space in Jund, a creature either needs to provide additional value or be incredibly efficient. 
As it doesn't have built in card advantage or value like Dark Confidant or Scavenging Ooze, the ogre is just a beater, which is the same job Tarmogoyf holds. Given that Goyf is cheaper and frequently bigger than Spellbreaker, it wins the fight easily.
If not Jund, the only option is for Gruul-colored aggressive decks. This means either GR Eldrazi or Zoo. The problem is that neither deck is a deck in Modern anymore. Zoo hasn't been a serious contender in years, while GR Eldrazi had some success this time last year it has virtually disappeared. The three-drop spot was so crowded anyway that I can't imagine Spellbreaker making it into Eldrazi in the first place. That leaves Zoo, which isn't a deck in Modern anymore.
Zoo's Strategic Stagnation
There was a time that Zoo was the best deck in Modern. That time was 2011, right before Wild Nacatl got banned. By the time that was undone in 2014, Modern had passed Zoo by, and the deck has failed to have any significant impact since.
The problem with Zoo is that it's the definition of a straightforward aggro deck. It just plays the best cheap attackers, turns them sideways, and hopes that plus some burn is enough. Even in 2014, pure Burn did that too, but far more efficiently; Affinity did that more explosively, with flying, and featuring an infect backup plan. Today we have decks that randomly dump free 4/4's into play turn 1 and follow that up with 1 mana 5/5's. Zoo's strategy is from a time when Wizards didn't push the bar on creatures, and is now too archaic to survive. If Zoo in any form wants to come back, it will take a major overhaul, and a three-mana, 3/3-4/4 beater isn't going to cut it.
Otherwise, Irrelevant
I've skipped over the non-riot abilities on Spellbreaker so far because they're not going to 
help or hinder its playability. Trample is mostly irrelevant on a lower-mid sized creature since it's only getting blocked if it can be killed anyway and that's not too hard today. Trample isn't why Reality Smasher is played.
The conditional hexproof is interesting, but it isn't good enough. Most decks will be willing to wait to kill Spellbreaker anyway as long as they can kill other threats. If the controller always had hexproof that might be good enough, but only having it on their turn means it only affects Vendilion Clique, Blessed Alliance, and Settle the Wreckage, none of which see much play. Thus, the utility is niche at best.
Prime Speaker Vannifar
Finally, there's the newest broken-card-with-legs, Prime Speaker Vannifar. Time Spiral's Magus cycle of Vintage-cards-on-legs are Vannifar's direct ancestors. While Magus of the Moon and Magus of the Tabernacle have seen play, the Magi with activation costs (like Vannifar) have had no real impact in the format.
Vannifar looks like a better deal. For starters, she can be found off Chord of Calling on the end step and then combo off on your own turn. This power being why Splinter Twin got banned, it's a possibility to look into. Her activation is also manaless, unlike Birthing Pod. This means Vannifar can do every combo that Pod did, but more efficiently, theoretically opening up new combo or value chain possibilities. It's not surprising that Pod stalwarts are salivating over the prospect of their deck being resurrected.
Out of Her Prime
Being fetchable is no small thing, and neither is the manaless activation. However, the problem of being a creature still hangs on Vannifar; while I'm sure she'll see play in Modern, her true home will be Commander.
Birthing Pod was a good card because it could be played turn 2 off a single Bird, used immediately (mana provided), and was immune to (almost) all maindeck removal. None of these things are true of the Prime Speaker. This is by design: the entire point of stapling broken spells to creatures is to make them more vulnerable to removal and slow down their effects.
Chording for Vannifar with the intention of going off after untapping would be a sound plan if it could be defended. However, that Chord requires seven mana, and while it's possible with two Birds of Paradise and a Wall of Roots on turn three, it doesn't leave any mana open to protect the Chord or the Vannifar. Kiki-Chord worked for Jeff Hoogland and almost nobody else for a reason.
The Prime Speaker needs protection because there is removal everywhere. The only commonly-played-maindeck card that could remove a resolved Pod was Maelstrom Pulse, which was only played in Jund. At instant speed alone, Vannifar has to contend with the very commonly played Path to Exile, revolted Fatal Push, Dismember, Lightning Axe, Assassin's Trophy, and occasionally Terminus.
The Real Question
Given that Pod was cheaper and virtually guaranteed to survive and Vannifar isn't, it appears that the only reason to consider the card is the potential to cast Chord on the end step, and win via combo in turn four's main phase. However, why bother? Chord players can already do that on turn three in Counters Company with Devoted Druid and Vizier of Remedies. It may require more cards in the actual combo, but setting up Vannifar requires at least as many. It's also not particularly burdensome for a deck with Collected Company. If the Company deck isn't good enough, why would the slower and thus more vulnerable Vannifar deck supersede it?
Quick Hits
Finally, here are some thoughts on a couple other cards that I don't think warrant an entire section.
- Absorb - Despite appearances, this is quite playable in UW Control. The cost isn't burdensome and Logic Knot is often a three mana spell anyway. More importantly against burn incidental lifegain on a counter can be backbreaking much the same way Lightning Helix can be.
- Hero of Precinct One
- The deck that wants this card does not exist because there aren't enough cheap multicolored spells to emulate Young Pyromancer. I'd like this not to be the case because the greater flexibility is very appealing.
Speculation's End
I look forward to seeing what other players make of Ravnica Allegiance in the coming weeks. I'll also take this opportunity to remind everyone, as I always do, that despite the upcoming banlist announcement and the hype around it, don't fall for any speculation. I believe the correct prediction is always no changes. That said, we'll all find out if I'm wrong about that this time next week.
I got to work building the Delver deck of the future. For starters, I figured a full set of Snapcaster Mages could be added to the core over the 
Scour, too, is an instant-speed cantrip, and has the potential to be the best of the bunch. Grixis Shadow's dip into Faithless Looting and Mishra's Bauble has claimed some copies of Serum Visions, but Scour always remains a 4-of in that deck due to its ability to power out delve threats. I wanted my Delver deck to also have the ability to abuse Thought Scour, ideally enough to make it better than Serum Visions—in doing so, I'd upgrade the power level of my cantrips generally.
While I wanted a set of Scours, I also didn't want to build the deck in such a way that it would fold to heavy-duty graveyard hate, especially Rest in Peace. That's a problem with Temur (reliant on Tarmogoyf and Hooting Mandrills) that I think makes the deck utterly unplayable in this graveyard-wise metagame. The question when choosing threats was one of how to extract value from a full set of Scours without opening myself to blowouts from hate cards.
I ended up settling on Grim Lavamancer. The four Scours ensure a constant stream of cards entering the graveyard, allowing Lavamancer to totally dominate the small creature matchups Delver has long splashed sideboard sweepers to beat. Its floor is much higher than Goyf's, for instance, as a one-mana 1/1 considerably trumps an off-color, two-mana 0/1. Finally, Lavamancer makes up for his lack of offensive power by letting us run 4 Wizard's Lightning comfortably. The instant adds oomph to our Bolt-Snap-Bolt plan and gives us additional ways to power through board-invalidating tech like Ensnaring Bridge and Terminus.
Naturally, Pierce shines against spell-based decks with combo elements. Hitting these decks where it hurts means 
for whatever else might present itself. While it's not permission, I also threw in a pair of Abrades for good measure; I like to have at least six removal spells in my Delver mainboards, and was interested in discovering what mainboard artifact hate can do for the archetype.
Split costs. While Tombstalker can use any cards in the graveyard as fuel, including dead creatures and fetchlands, Pteramander gives players a layaway option: we can cast the "front half" for just one mana and grow it for the difference at instant speed.
I rebuilt the deck from scratch in another five minutes, landing on a list almost identical to the UR Lavamancer one. In place of Wizard's Lightning, I added a smattering of random instants and sorceries that underperformed during initial tests. Then, I realized another of Pteramander's components: it's blue! That means the creature helps enable Disrupting Shoal, which I have again been pining after in this metagame of blazing-fast kills created by cheap spells. Shoal also does a fine job of protecting Pteramander from the likes of Fatal Push: at the stage of the game where Pteramander "flips," it's often trivial to hold up hard-Shoal mana, and Cancel is as strong as ever with a beater on the table.
A number of little changes were made from the Lavamancer version:
whatever permanent opponents stick, and I've liked it so far. It also sometimes exceeds its on-paper worth by dealing with a horde of tokens.
The creature's worse against combo-oriented decks like Phoenix, Ironworks, and even Tron and Burn. In these matchups, it takes too long to grow and is usually sided out for hate. Fortunately, Delver (not to mention this build) is already well-equipped to defeat these sorts of decks, so a potential game 1 loss isn't the end of the world. Salamander is also soft to Rest in Peace, and gets swapped for Drake against opponents likely to bring in multiple copies of the enchantment. Since Rest decks tend to be slower, casting multiple Drakes on just 18 lands is feasible in those matchups.
Leaping Forward
garbage to not be keepable, because the reward for keeping is starting the game scrying three cards deep. That's deep enough that whatever that opening hand was missing will almost certainly be found, or at least make finding it plausible in a draw step or two. Good hands suddenly move towards ideal. In formats where opening turns matter as much as Modern, Sphinx could be broken.
Even in Legacy and Vintage, similar effects are rare. The only regular use I know of is Chancellor of the Annex as Force of Will protection in 
Sphinx to hit their curve; fair decks will Sphinx to hit land drops and find missing threats/answers. A combo deck will use Sphinx to dig for their fast kills, and can keep more questionable hands because they've found redundancy or the missing pieces already.
Failing to open with Sphinx means that it can only be a 4/4 for four with flying. That's not a Modern-acceptable rate. Obstinate Baloth sees play because of its abilities rather than stats, and frankly there aren't a lot of four mana cards 
Every other deck can play Sphinx, but it isn't clear if they should. Even during those 40% of game that open with Sphinx's scry, they'll have that four mana 4/4 sitting in hand. If they can't/don't want to use the body, is having that brick acceptable? If there were some use for Sphinx other than casting it, then I might lean toward yes (say a combo deck emerges that needs to discard or exile blue creatures from the hand). However, 
The other interesting revelation is that Wizards appears to want Aristocrats to come back. For those who weren't playing last time we visited Ravnica, Artistocrats was a Mardu deck that used token makers as resources to feed sacrifice outlets, primarily Cartel Aristocrat and Falkenrath Aristocrat. That deck 
In essence, Aristocrats cheats on mana by having cheap creatures and tokens serve as fodder for bigger effects. What is lost in individual power is made up with volume, with each card effectively acting like several. However, the effects haven't been big enough to actually make it, and in Modern, the combo cards are more easily answered by discard and permission than in Standard.
It would appear that Wizards also likes Aristocrats, because Allegiance is full of cards that appear perfect for the deck. The Orzhov mechanic afterlife creates 1/1 Spirit tokens when creatures die, which is what fueled the original Aristocrat decks. We've also (as of this writing) seen Aristocrats-specific payoff cards, namely Judith, the Scourge Diva and Teysa Karlov. Judith provides an additional benefit to sacrificing cards (though not tokens) and then boosts said tokens' power. Teysa makes additional tokens each sacrifice, and makes those tokens more useful. Given that we're just starting spoiler season, it feels like there may be a real chance that Aristocrats will finally be able to stand out.
Questions linger, however. The payoff cards aren't the most Modern-worthy stats wise, and are only good when actually synergizing with the engine. The old vulnerability to Rest in Peace is still there. There's also the problem that so far, the afterlife cards are still not very good. I know Tithe Taker has been looked at, but even if its ability were more relevant, trading the card for one token isn't a great deal.
Pyromancer was great 
